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General Electric Company logo
General Electric Company
GE · US · NYSE
166.87
USD
-0.26
(0.16%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Peter Stracar President & Chief Executive Officer of European Region --
Mr. David Burns Chief Information Officer --
Mr. Ramesh Singaram President & Chief Executive Officer of GE Gas Power's APAC --
Mr. Christian E. Meisner Chief Human Resources Officer --
Mr. Russell T. Stokes President and Chief Executive Officer of Commercial Engines and Services 3.6M
Mr. Rahul Ghai Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 2.38M
Mr. John R. Phillips Senior Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary --
Mr. Christoph A. Pereira Chief Executive Officer of Aerospace Carbon Solutions (ACS) & Sustainability --
Mr. Robert M. Giglietti Chief Accounting Officer, Controller & Treasurer --
Mr. H. Lawrence Culp Jr. Chairman & Chief Executive Officer 8.7M
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-08-03 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 10779 0
2024-08-03 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 10799 0
2024-08-03 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 4635 162.86
2024-08-03 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 10799 0
2024-08-03 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8803 0
2024-08-03 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 4080 162.86
2024-08-03 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 8803 0
2024-06-30 Bazin Sebastien director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 131 0
2024-06-30 ANGEL STEPHEN F director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 154 0
2024-05-23 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 50604 128.97
2024-05-23 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 45309 162.82
2024-05-23 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 50604 128.97
2024-05-22 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5667 128.97
2024-05-22 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5127 160.19
2024-05-22 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5667 128.97
2024-05-21 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6073 128.97
2024-05-21 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5464 159.9
2024-05-21 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 6073 128.97
2024-05-06 McDew Darren W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 120 0
2024-05-07 McDew Darren W director A - A-Award Common Stock 1165 0
2024-05-06 LESJAK CATHERINE A director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 120 0
2024-05-07 LESJAK CATHERINE A director A - A-Award Common Stock 1165 0
2024-05-06 HORTON THOMAS W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 126 0
2024-05-07 HORTON THOMAS W director A - A-Award Common Stock 1165 0
2024-05-06 Goren Isabella D director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 116 0
2024-05-07 Goren Isabella D director A - A-Award Common Stock 1165 0
2024-05-06 GARDEN EDWARD P director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 125 0
2024-05-07 GARDEN EDWARD P director A - A-Award Common Stock 1165 0
2024-05-07 Enders Thomas director A - A-Award Common Stock 1165 0
2024-05-06 Enders Thomas director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 112 0
2024-05-07 Billson Margaret S director A - A-Award Common Stock 1165 0
2024-05-06 Billson Margaret S director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 116 0
2024-05-06 Bazin Sebastien director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 194 0
2024-05-07 Bazin Sebastien director A - A-Award Common Stock 1165 0
2024-05-06 ANGEL STEPHEN F director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 187 0
2024-05-07 ANGEL STEPHEN F director A - A-Award Common Stock 1165 0
2024-05-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 24793 159.7
2024-05-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6443 0
2024-05-01 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 7438 159.7
2024-05-01 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1933 0
2024-05-01 Phillips John R, III Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 17355 159.7
2024-05-01 Phillips John R, III Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4510 0
2024-05-01 Meisner Christian Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 17355 159.7
2024-05-01 Meisner Christian Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4510 0
2024-05-01 Gowder Amy L Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 7438 159.7
2024-05-01 Gowder Amy L Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1933 0
2024-05-01 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5486 159.7
2024-05-01 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4832 0
2024-05-01 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1546 0
2024-05-01 GHAI RAHUL Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 23603 159.7
2024-05-01 GHAI RAHUL Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6134 0
2024-04-05 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-04-05 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 8095 90.01
2024-04-05 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 4383 52.38
2024-04-05 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 10602 57.62
2024-04-05 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - Restricted Stock Units 5754 0
2024-04-05 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5061 69.55
2024-04-05 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 6073 128.97
2024-04-05 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5061 123.31
2024-04-05 Procacci Riccardo Senior Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 1517 146.33
2024-04-05 Phillips John R, III Senior Vice President D - Restricted Stock Units 5444 0
2024-04-05 Phillips John R, III Senior Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 12599 96.36
2024-04-05 Meisner Christian Senior Vice President D - Restricted Stock Units 13611 0
2024-04-05 Meisner Christian Senior Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 31499 96.36
2024-04-05 Gowder Amy L Senior Vice President D - Restricted Stock Units 5754 0
2024-04-05 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-04-05 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5667 128.97
2024-04-05 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5061 123.31
2024-04-05 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 3035 146.33
2024-04-05 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 29264 36.65
2024-04-05 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 14796 52.38
2024-04-05 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 3559 46.89
2024-04-05 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 15796 57.62
2024-04-05 Giglietti Robert M. Vice President D - Restricted Stock Units 6906 0
2024-03-28 UHL JESSICA R. director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 63 0
2024-03-28 Reynolds Paula Rosput director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 284 0
2024-03-28 McDew Darren W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 253 0
2024-03-28 LESJAK CATHERINE A director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 284 0
2024-03-28 HORTON THOMAS W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 297 0
2024-03-28 Goren Isabella D director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 275 0
2024-03-28 GARDEN EDWARD P director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 266 0
2024-03-28 Enders Thomas director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 244 0
2024-03-28 Billson Margaret S director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 244 0
2024-03-28 Bazin Sebastien director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 458 0
2024-03-28 ANGEL STEPHEN F director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 443 0
2024-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 9298 0
2024-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3353 0
2024-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1529 158.1
2024-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 4325 158.1
2024-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3417 0
2024-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1590 158.1
2024-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3353 0
2024-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3417 0
2024-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 38991 0
2024-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6316 0
2024-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3179 158.1
2024-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 19107 158.1
2024-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5149 0
2024-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2524 158.1
2024-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6316 0
2024-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5149 0
2024-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 34118 0
2024-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4800 0
2024-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2153 158.1
2024-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 15256 158.1
2024-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4506 0
2024-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2015 158.1
2024-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4800 0
2024-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4506 0
2024-03-01 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 21123 0
2024-03-01 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 8961 158.1
2024-03-01 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21894 0
2024-03-01 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 10080 158.1
2024-03-01 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 21123 0
2024-03-01 CULP H LAWRENCE JR Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 238846 0
2024-03-01 CULP H LAWRENCE JR Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 110513 158.1
2024-03-01 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20519 0
2024-03-01 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 8161 158.1
2024-03-01 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 23884 0
2024-03-01 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 10776 158.1
2024-03-01 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 20519 0
2024-02-25 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7222 0
2024-02-25 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3024 152.86
2024-02-25 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3154 0
2024-02-25 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1363 152.86
2024-02-25 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7222 0
2024-02-14 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 30000 75.42
2024-02-14 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 22055 144.87
2024-02-14 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 30000 75.42
2024-02-02 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 13601 135.55
2023-12-29 UHL JESSICA R. director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 376 0
2023-12-29 Reynolds Paula Rosput director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 389 0
2023-12-29 McDew Darren W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 346 0
2023-12-29 LESJAK CATHERINE A director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 389 0
2023-12-29 HORTON THOMAS W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 407 0
2023-12-29 Goren Isabella D director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 376 0
2023-12-29 Enders Thomas director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 113 0
2023-12-29 Billson Margaret S director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 113 0
2023-12-29 GARDEN EDWARD P director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 364 0
2023-12-29 Bazin Sebastien director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 627 0
2023-12-29 ANGEL STEPHEN F director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 607 0
2023-12-01 Billson Margaret S - 0 0
2023-12-01 Enders Thomas - 0 0
2023-11-20 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 15000 119.79
2023-09-29 GARDEN EDWARD P director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 397 0
2023-09-29 UHL JESSICA R. director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 411 0
2023-09-29 Reynolds Paula Rosput director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 424 0
2023-09-29 McDew Darren W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 378 0
2023-09-29 LESJAK CATHERINE A director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 424 0
2023-09-29 HORTON THOMAS W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 444 0
2023-09-29 Goren Isabella D director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 411 0
2023-09-29 Bazin Sebastien director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 684 0
2023-09-29 ANGEL STEPHEN F director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 662 0
2023-09-01 GHAI RAHUL Senior Vice President D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-09-01 GHAI RAHUL Senior Vice President I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-09-01 GHAI RAHUL Senior Vice President I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-09-01 GHAI RAHUL Senior Vice President D - Restricted Stock Units 58598 0
2023-09-03 Timko Thomas S Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7234 0
2023-09-03 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3502 114.5
2023-09-03 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7234 0
2023-09-03 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 59043 0
2023-09-03 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 28742 114.5
2023-09-03 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 59043 0
2023-09-03 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 59043 0
2023-09-03 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 26681 114.5
2023-09-03 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 59043 0
2023-09-03 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 36169 0
2023-09-03 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 17152 114.5
2023-09-03 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 36169 0
2023-09-03 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 48226 0
2023-09-03 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 48226 0
2023-09-03 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 21865 114.5
2023-07-27 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 100000 92.2
2023-07-27 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 112614 115.2
2023-07-27 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 100000 92.2
2023-06-30 GARDEN EDWARD P director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 426 0
2023-06-30 UHL JESSICA R. director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 285 0
2023-06-30 Reynolds Paula Rosput director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 454 0
2023-06-30 McDew Darren W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 404 0
2023-06-30 LESJAK CATHERINE A director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 454 0
2023-06-30 HORTON THOMAS W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 475 0
2023-06-30 Goren Isabella D director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 440 0
2023-06-30 GENERAL ELECTRIC PENSION TRUST 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Shares of Beneficial Interest 35160.331 995.44
2023-06-30 Bazin Sebastien director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 733 0
2023-06-30 ANGEL STEPHEN F director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 709 0
2023-05-22 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 34402 0
2023-05-22 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 35566 0
2023-05-22 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 58292 104.68
2023-05-22 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 34402 73.25
2023-05-22 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 35566 66.59
2023-05-03 GENERAL ELECTRIC PENSION TRUST 10 percent owner D - Common Shares of Beneficial Interest 0 0
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 41908 0
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9334 0
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 29746 0
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 76731 0
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 19902 0
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 173873 99.56
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 31848 0
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 9334 59.6
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 41908 73.25
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 19902 88.41
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 76731 46.59
2023-05-10 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 29746 66.59
2023-05-03 UHL JESSICA R. - 0 0
2023-05-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 7254 100.82
2023-04-09 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6500 0
2023-04-09 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3083 93.96
2023-04-09 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2891 0
2023-04-09 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1371 93.96
2023-04-09 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6500 0
2023-03-31 GARDEN EDWARD P director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 495 0
2023-03-31 Seidman Leslie director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 511 0
2023-03-31 Reynolds Paula Rosput director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 616 0
2023-03-31 McDew Darren W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 10 0
2023-03-31 LESJAK CATHERINE A director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 527 0
2023-03-31 HORTON THOMAS W director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 552 0
2023-03-31 Goren Isabella D director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 511 0
2023-03-31 DSOUZA FRANCISCO director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 920 0
2023-03-31 Bazin Sebastien director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 852 0
2023-03-31 ANGEL STEPHEN F director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 824 0
2023-03-30 McDew Darren W director D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-03-02 Timko Thomas S Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1990 0
2023-03-02 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 968 84.56
2023-03-02 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1990 0
2023-03-02 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4185 0
2023-03-02 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1997 84.56
2023-03-02 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4185 0
2023-03-02 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4373 0
2023-03-02 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1977 84.56
2023-03-02 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4373 0
2023-03-02 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2806 0
2023-03-02 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1331 84.56
2023-03-02 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2806 0
2023-03-02 Dybeck Happe Carolina Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5102 0
2023-03-02 Dybeck Happe Carolina Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1676 84.56
2023-03-02 Dybeck Happe Carolina Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5102 0
2023-03-02 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3061 0
2023-03-02 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1420 84.56
2023-03-02 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3061 0
2023-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3417 0
2023-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1661 84.57
2023-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8751 0
2023-03-01 Timko Thomas S Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3417 0
2023-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 53587 82.85
2023-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5149 0
2023-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2518 84.57
2023-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 14484 0
2023-03-01 Strazik Scott Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5149 0
2023-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4505 0
2023-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2033 84.57
2023-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 44656 82.85
2023-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 12070 0
2023-03-01 Stokes Russell Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4505 0
2023-03-01 Slattery John S. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 26794 82.85
2023-03-01 Slattery John S. Executive Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7723 0
2023-03-01 Slattery John S. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3402 84.57
2023-03-01 Slattery John S. Executive Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7723 0
2023-03-01 Slattery John S. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 7242 0
2023-03-01 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2892 0
2023-03-01 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1372 84.57
2023-03-01 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 33492 82.85
2023-03-01 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 21123 0
2023-03-01 Holston Michael J Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2892 0
2023-03-01 Dybeck Happe Carolina Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 44656 82.85
2023-03-01 Dybeck Happe Carolina Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 12070 0
2023-03-01 Dybeck Happe Carolina Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5257 0
2023-03-01 Dybeck Happe Carolina Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1727 84.57
2023-03-01 Dybeck Happe Carolina Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5257 0
2023-03-01 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 31259 82.85
2023-03-01 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 20519 0
2023-03-01 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3154 0
2023-03-01 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1434 84.57
2023-03-01 Cox L Kevin Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3154 0
2023-01-03 Seidman Leslie director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 564 82.41
2023-01-03 Seidman Leslie director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 564 0
2023-01-03 Reynolds Paula Rosput director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 711 82.41
2023-01-03 Reynolds Paula Rosput director A - A-Award Deferred Fee Phantom Stock Units 711 0
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Transcripts
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Liz, and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Blaire Shoor from the GE Aerospace Investor Relations team. Please proceed.
Blaire Shoor:
Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE Aerospace's second quarter 2024 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai. Many of the statements we are making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and website, those elements may change as the world changes. Now over to Larry.
Lawrence Culp:
(Audit Start) Blaire, thanks, and hello, everyone, from London near the Farnborough International Airshow for GE Aerospace's first earnings call as an independent company. GE Aerospace is an exceptional franchise with the industry's largest and growing commercial propulsion fleet and is the rotorcraft and combat engine provider of choice. Our installed base of 70,000 commercial and defense engine supports our aftermarket services business, representing about 70% of our revenues that's recurring, resilient and keeps us close to our customers. Our purpose has never been clearer. To invent the future of flight, lift people up and bring them home safely. Those last four words, bring them home safely, is a serious responsibility. At any point, there are 900,000 people in the sky with our technology under wing, which is why safety and quality are at the center of everything that we do. Our teams around the world understand it is our top priority in Paramount and FLIGHT DECK, our proprietary lean operating model. Here at Farnborough, the conversations we are having are energizing and focused on both the opportunities and the challenges the industry is facing as we work together to meet historic demand and build more sustainable solutions. We've had a productive few days, including widebody commitments from Turkish Airlines and National Airlines for GE90 engines and Japan Airlines for GEnx engines. We are also honored to have British Airways, a new GEnx customer, committing to six new Boeing 787s powered by our engines. The GEnx engine offers a 15% lower fuel burn compared to the CF6 and best-in-class time on wing, resulting in a 70% life of program win rate on the 87 platform. In narrowbody's, we are pleased, the LEAP-powered Airbus 321XLR was certified by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, or EASA, just last week. The 320XLR marks the fifth member of the A320neo Family Aircraft powered by LEAP engines with expected entry into service later this year. LEAP, the narrowbody engine of choice offers 15% better fuel efficiency than the CFM56 and will deliver mature levels of time on wing later this year. In regionals, Embraer and GE Aerospace extended our agreement for new CF34 engine deliveries through the end of this decade. This agreement strengthens our partnership as the sole-source engine on the E175 and supports the continued growth of regional jets. Keeping an eye towards the future, this week at the show, we've shared a number of updates about the CFM RISE program. RISE is the suite of pioneering technologies, including Open Fan, Compact Core, hybrid electric systems and alternative fuels. We've continued to mature these technologies, moving for component-level evaluations to more module level tests. For example, with our partner, Safran, we've demonstrated the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of the Open Fan design with more than 200 hours of wind tunnel tests. Additionally, we've announced a new agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy to expand supercomputing capabilities, which will further advance Open Fan design. The Open Fan is the most promising engine technology to help the industry reduce emissions, designed to meet or exceed customer expectations for durability and deliver a step change in fuel efficiency. Turning to some of the key takeaways on our second quarter performance. Our team delivered double-digit growth across orders, operating profit and free cash flow, while revenue was impacted by lower output. With FLIGHT DECK, we are well positioned to accelerate actions to deliver on our priorities for today, tomorrow and in the future. In Commercial Engines & Services, or CES, air traffic trends remain positive, supporting our services growth and overall profit, which was up more than 20%. Profit growth was driven by 14% internal shop visits growth and improved pricing. In Defense & Propulsion Technologies, or DPT, we delivered very strong profit growth, up more than 70% year-over-year. Services growth in Defense & Systems and profit improvement in Propulsion & Additive Technologies drove this increase. Overall, a very solid quarter and first half. And my thanks go out to the entire global GE Aerospace team. Day in, day out, we are focused on delivering for both our airline and airframer customers who simply want and need more of our products and services. While we've made progress in services this quarter, our new engine output was disappointing, down 20% sequentially. It's a clear challenge that we are facing head on, accelerating the use of FLIGHT DECK in partnership with our suppliers as we work to solve the ongoing supply chain constraints. Last quarter, we shared that the common denominator impacting growth across both services and new engines is constrained material supply with 80% of material input shortages tied to nine suppliers across 15 supplier sites. This remains our focus today. We have deployed more than 550 of our engineering and supply chain resources into the supply base to use FLIGHT DECK to work hand-in-hand with our suppliers to identify and resolve constraints. We've made significant improvements in many areas and more than two-thirds of these sites, material flow more than doubled sequentially and is currently no longer constraining deliveries. We are grateful for their collaboration, but there is still more to do in the second half. And we've sharpened our focus on a subset of the remaining priority sites they are still constraining our output. We are making some progress, but not enough to meet demand. I've personally visited several of these sites, and I'm confident we can partner with our suppliers to drive faster progress. For example, earlier this month, we partnered with one of the priority suppliers in a joint Kaizen focused on addressing a key constraint. Our supply chain and engineering teams jointly leverage FLIGHT DECK to identify action plans to improve throughput significantly, aligned with our needs for second half deliveries. These actions resulted in a double-digit material input growth here so far in July versus the second quarter average. So a promising start. Overall, we are not yet at a desired state, but we are counting on these joint action plans and continuous improvement to achieve our second half ramp. So far in July, relative to April, we've seen overall higher engine output, stability and reduce variability. We are also deploying FLIGHT DECK aggressively in our own operations to improve safety, quality, delivery and cost and in that order. We've made solid progress in support of our airline customers. For example, our internal shop visit output improved 15% sequentially. And nowhere has this improvement been more visible than with LEAP. We've continued to decrease our turnaround time for LEAP shop visits to 86 days compared to roughly 100 days in 2023. This yielded a 9% increase in LEAP internal shop visits sequentially. We are also investing both organically and inorganically to meet the expected growth in shop visits as the LEAP fleet doubles by 2030. (Audit End) As we announced last week, over the next five years, we are planning to invest $1 billion in our MRO facilities around the world to increase capacity and introduce new technologies to further reduce turnaround time and costs. This includes a recent agreement to acquire dedicated LEAP test cell, unlocking a key constraint in our shop visit output. Overall, I am encouraged by our progress, but by no means satisfied. I'm confident that in the second half, we will increase engine delivery significantly and continue to grow shop visits in support of our customers. In the quarter, while I'll put weight on revenue, GE Aerospace delivered significant profit and free cash flow growth. Demand remains strong with orders up 18%. Revenue was up with growth in both segments. Services growth combined with price more than offset the lower engine shipments. Our operating profit was $1.9 billion, up 37% year-over-year from services growth, price and favorable mix. Operating margins expanded 560 basis points to 23.1%. Both operating profit and margin were up significantly at CES and DPT. Adjusted EPS was $1.20, up more than 60% year-over-year. This improvement was driven by increased operating profit combined with a lower tax rate. Free cash flow was $1.1 billion, up nearly 20%, driven by higher earnings, which more than offset inventory growth from the supply chain constraints I mentioned a moment ago. Halfway through the year, we are well positioned with earnings and free cash flow both up significantly year-over-year and free cash flow conversion of nearly 120%, giving us confidence to raise our full-year profit and cash guidance. This continued profit and free cash flow growth, combined with returning approximately $25 billion of available cash to shareholders, will continue to compound returns. Now over to Rahul for the details on our segment results and our guidance.
Rahul Ghai:
Thank you, Larry, and good day, everyone. Starting with CES. Air traffic growth remained robust with departures up 9% year-to-date, and we continue to expect to be up high-single digits for the full-year. Passenger departures are expected to be up high-single digits as narrowbody remains solid with LEAP up nearly 30% in the second quarter, more than 3x that of overall narrowbody market. Dedicated freight departures are now expected to be up mid-single digits versus a prior expectation of low-single digits. Moving to CES' second quarter results. Sustained commercial momentum drove significant orders growth, up 38% this quarter. Both services and equipment were up more than 35% with strong spare parts demand. Revenue grew 7%, with services volume and price more than offsetting lower engine deliveries. Services grew 14% from mid-teens internal shop visit growth with strength in time and material visits and improved pricing. As expected, year-on-year shop visits grew more than spare parts. Equipment revenue declined 11% from 26% lower engine shipments. This was partially offset by customer mix and price. Supply chain constraints impacted shipments across both narrowbody and widebody with LEAP down 29%. Profit was $1.7 billion, up 21%, with margins expanding 320 basis points, driven by improved performance in services from higher volume, pricing and mix, lower engine shipments and improving LEAP services profitability also supported profit and margin expansion. This more than offset the impact of lower spare engine deliveries and increased investments that impacted equipment offer. Taking a step back, at CES, we delivered a strong first half with services revenue up 13% and overall segment profit up nearly 20%. Turning to DPT. The sector remains resilient with U.S. defense spending expected to grow low-single digits and international up mid-single digits. With FLIGHT DECK, we are focused on running this business better to deliver more predictably while continuing to invest in the future of Combat. We recently achieved a significant milestone delivering two 901 engines for the U.S. Army's Improved Turbine Engine Program, or ITEP, for integration and testing on the UH-60 Black Hawk. The T901 engine will ensure that war fighters have the performance, power and reliability necessary to maintain significant advantage on the battlefield for decades to come. Turning to our results. Orders were down 25%, primarily due to timing of orders in Defense & Systems. Defense book-to-bill was 0.9 in the quarter and 1.0 for the first half. Revenue grew 1%. Defense & Systems revenue was down 6%. Engine deliveries were down approximately 60% from supply chain challenges and a tough year-over-year compare when we delivered significantly higher units. This more than offset pricing and services growth. Propulsion & Additive Technologies grew 16% with growth across several businesses, from higher output and improved pricing. Profit was $344 million, up more than 70% year-over-year, with margins expanding 580 basis points from higher output, favorable product mix, productivity, price and the absence of program-related costs. Through the first half of the year, DPT delivered high single-digit revenue growth and significant operating profit improvement. The business remains well positioned to deliver growth over the medium term with a backlog of nearly $17 billion. Spending a moment on corporate. Adjusted cost and intercompany eliminations were roughly $130 million, down nearly 40% year-over-year. This $80 million improvement is from actions taken to streamline our cost structure, accelerate elimination of wind-down costs and favorable interest income that more than offset higher intercompany eliminations. As part of our continued efforts to simplify and focus on our core, this quarter, we completed the sale of Electric Insurance. We also reached an agreement to sell the licensing business and a reinsurance agreement to exit a block of our life and health insurance business. Combined, these actions will result in proceeds of roughly $700 million of investing cash flow. Looking ahead, given the strong results and the momentum in our business, we are raising our profit and cash guidance. We are reducing our revenue guidance given lower engine output expectations. Growth is now projected to be up high-single digits due to lower equipment revenue in CES. We now expect CES equipment revenue to be up high single to low-double digits from prior guidance of up high teens. This includes our updated full-year LEAP output expectations of flat to up 5% year-over-year. We continue to expect CES services to grow mid-teens, putting overall growth of CES at low-double digits to mid-teens. Consistent with prior guidance, we expect DPT growth of mid- to high-single digits. Operating profit is now expected to be in a range of $6.5 billion to $6.8 billion, up $250 million at the midpoint from prior guidance with margin expansion year-over-year. This improvement is primarily from CES, with operating profit now expected to be $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion from $6.1 billion to $6.4 billion previously, reflecting improved services performance and impact of lower equipment sales. DPT profit guidance is unchanged, and corporate costs and intercompany eliminations are now expected to be below $900 million from approximately $1 billion previously. Our expectations for interest expense and tax rate are unchanged, and we are raising our adjusted EPS guidance range to $3.95 to $4.20, up more than 50% year-over-year at the midpoint from higher profit growth. We are also raising our free cash flow guidance to $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion with above 100% conversion of net income given profit growth. While we still expect to reduce working capital for the year, the improvement is expected to be lower given the impact of supply chain challenges to inventory. Overall, free cash flow is up approximately $700 million year-over-year at the midpoint. All in, GE Aerospace is positioned for significant revenue, profit and free cash flow growth with strong conversion in 2024. Larry, back to you.
Lawrence Culp:
Rahul, thanks. As we take flight as GE Aerospace, we have sustained competitive advantages with a tremendous value proposition. With the industry's largest and growing fleets, our platforms are preferred by customers, across the narrowbody, widebody and defense sectors. We are aiming to provide industry-leading reliability and durability, prioritizing SQDC in that order. This means delivering unmatched time on wing and faster turnaround times for our customers. With our deep domain expertise and engineering talent, commitment to innovation and capacity to invest, we are poised to deliver breakthrough technologies in both commercial and defense. And with FLIGHT DECK as our foundation, we will deliver for customers and create exceptional value for shareholders. All in, we expect to grow operating profit to approximately $10 million in 2028 and generate free cash flow in excess of net income, creating compounding returns. We are making meaningful progress to advance our strategic priorities and service of our customers, employees and shareholders while keeping an eye towards the future and paving the way with innovation for a more sustainable flight. Now Blaire, let's go to questions.
Blaire Shoor:
Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. Liz, can you please open the line?
Operator:
(Audit Start) [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.
Robert Spingarn:
Good afternoon.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning, Rob.
Rahul Ghai:
Hey, Rob.
Robert Spingarn:
I don't know who wants to take this one, but I wanted to ask you, just given the slower ramp on the narrowbody programs as well as the durability issues on the geared turbofan, we've seen airlines extending the lives of older aircraft and engines. Are we getting to the point where some of your CFM56 customers are talking about increasing the work scope of their third shop visits or maybe even doing a fourth shop visit?
Lawrence Culp:
Well, Rob, I think that you really put your finger on one of the important underlying dynamics here, not only in the quarter, but as we think about the second half and even the next few years, the CFM56 is clearly still the workhorse of the industry, right? I mean if we look at utilization in a time when people thought we might begin to see a little bit of a fade, utilization year-over-year is consistent with the CFM56, delighted to see the LEAP up 4 points from a share perspective. So overall GE narrowbody powered propulsion is probably north of 70%. So I think the CFM is going to have a longer life in many fleets. And clearly, that's going to help us in the aftermarket, both from a volume and from a scope perspective.
Rahul Ghai:
Rob, just to maybe add a little bit to what Larry said. Just given the dynamics that he mentioned and you mentioned earlier, we are expecting that the peak shop visit that we had previously projected in 2025. And then we start to see the sequential downtick in 2026, 2027 is what we said at Investor Day. Now as we sit here today, we do expect that shop visit is probably plateau at that 25 level for maybe another couple of years and then start declining. So definitely, we are seeing that the program – the platform is getting used and the shop visits will be higher for an extended period of time, and we will see third shop visits. And that we're seeing that even with some of the lessors coming out and commenting that the leases are getting extended beyond 14, 15 years, for another four, five years. So we will definitely see what you just said.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.
Myles Walton:
Hey, good morning. I apologize for the background noise. I'm actually here at the show. I was hoping, Larry or Rahul, you could comment on the 15 supplier sites and nine suppliers who seem to be the source of the bulk of the delays in parts. And where that was last year? And maybe just if you can bucket the types of products we're talking about at those 15 sites? Thanks.
Lawrence Culp:
Myles, we can hear you loud and clear. We're not too far away, I suspect. I think if you go back to April, what we said was three quarters of the challenge with respect to deliveries was really rooted in these 15 supplier sites again with nine different companies. And rather than finger point, our mindset was we're going to problem solve. And we've gone in deeply again with FLIGHT DECK to really try to understand these constraints at the core. And the slide that you see in the deck, I think, is evidence that, that approach, that collaborative problem-solving rather than finger-pointing is really yielding results. We didn't expect that we would see a blanket impact immediately, but to be able to point to two-thirds of those sites showing strong, nearly doubling of their sequential outputs, inputs to us, I think really tells us something, right, that this approach is going to have impact. Unfortunately, we didn't have all of the impact that we would have liked across those 15 and we need everybody's ore in the water, if you will. We need everybody contributing, particularly with respect to new engine deliveries. But I think given what we have seen here in July, the way that we're working across different commodity classes shows that this approach is a better way to get more, not only here in the third quarter or the second half, but as we think about what is a multiyear ramp, right, the airframers that we talk to here at Farnborough certainly in the airlines as well. No one loves the fact that a new narrowbody order may not be delivered until 2029 or 2030. So it's all about the ramp. We've got years in front of us, thankfully, what a wonderful business challenge to have. But I really like the way our suppliers have met us here, embrace the tools. And we just need more time working in this fashion in order to have the full effect that we, our airframer and our airline customers all desire.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi. Good morning, Larry and Rahul. How are you?
Lawrence Culp:
Good. Thank you, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Maybe if I could ask about the CES margins, which were pretty awesome. So just looking at the LEAP deliveries in the quarter Q1 versus Q2, Q2 had 70 less LEAP deliveries in the quarter. So about a $10 million profit swing depending upon your loss assumption there. So CES margins of 27% in Q2 versus Q3 – versus Q1 of 2023 implies that the core service margin improved about 1,000 to 1,500 basis points depending on what you want to choose, so 25% to 35% plus. So what drove that despite shop visits being better than spares? And how do we think about the second half progression?
Rahul Ghai:
Yes. No, Sheila, it was a good quarter for CES overall. OE volume was weak, as you pointed out. But the service revenue recovered really nicely, and the overall services growth was kind of in line with what we had projected for full-year. So it kind of came in exactly what we were thinking. And the drop-through from services was very strong. The shop visits skewed towards time and material work. And then the work scopes were heavier as well. And that helped both revenue and the profit on those shop visits. This along with pricing and customer mix helped the services profit growth. And in equipment, the engine shipments were lower, but within equipment, we also reduced our spare engine deliveries and higher investments. And that kind of offset the impact of the lower engine shipments. So overall, OE profit was more flattish than anything else. Now as we look at the trends in first half that gave us the confidence here to raise profit expectations for the full-year by, call it, $150 million to $200 million at the midpoint of the guide. Now what's driving that are two things. One, the services growth that we just mentioned, all the things that we are seeing. We projected that favorability to now flow through into the second half as well, both with work scopes and some of the customer mix being favorable. And then we lowered our OE revenue output but, call it, $600 million, $650 million at the midpoint of the guide, and that is helping profit. So that is where you see our CES profit up for the year, $150 million to $200 million. And the margins are for CES will be kind of at this level will be flattish for the year, and that is despite this being the first year of 9x shipments. So really, really happy with the way the CES business is coming along. (Audit End)
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.
David Strauss:
Thanks. Good morning, good afternoon.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning, David.
Rahul Ghai:
Good morning.
David Strauss:
Larry, can you just maybe dig into this – the lower LEAP shipments in the quarter? I know you're talking about things progressing with these nine suppliers, but at the same time, obviously, deliveries were way down in the quarter. I would imagine they were 100, 125 short of kind of your internal expectations. Can you kind of just square that things are getting better, but deliveries were a lot lower than expected? Thanks.
Lawrence Culp:
David, I don't want to repeat what I said earlier. I do think one of the things to keep in mind is that there is a timing dynamic relative to when we receive various inputs and win in turn, we convert that into an engine that we can deliver be it to Airbus or to Boeing, right? So April was challenging in a number of ways. We didn't have the recovery in May that I think we had hoped. We might see underlying the quarter, though, sequentially was the net improvement that I mentioned, and that has only continued to build here in July. We haven't seen that somewhat typically slow start to a quarter that I was concerned about. So there's really nothing more I can say about why the new unit deliveries LEAP included were disappointing. It is what it is, where we're focused, as we think about the rest of the year, is how do we deliver more and how do we deliver more reliably. You'll note that we are adjusting our outlook for LEAP deliveries this year. On a full-year basis, we now think we will be somewhere between flat and up 5%, obviously lower than where we thought, but still showing modest growth. And more importantly, I think, given what we're doing with FLIGHT DECK in the supply base, the expectations we have, not only for more inputs, but in turn more outputs positions us to be at a healthier, more stable, higher exit rate come the end of the year. That's where we're focused. That's what we're sharing with our customers work to do, work I think this team knows how to do.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.
Seth Seifman:
Hey. Thanks very much and good morning.
Rahul Ghai:
Hey, Seth.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning, Seth.
Seth Seifman:
I wondered just to kind of follow-up on that last question and thinking about the progression on the delivery side. I think you need a pretty significant increase off of the Q2 equipment revenue level to get to the guide for the year. Is it going to be possible to make much progress in Q3? Should we expect a much more significant progress in Q4? And any other color that you can provide about the sequential dynamics across the company?
Rahul Ghai:
Seth, let me start by just kind of maybe talking a little bit about how we think the back half will shape up and Larry can add if there's anything more on the delivery side. Listen, overall, as you look at our first half to second half growth. First half, we've delivered about 9% growth. And it's kind of in line with what we are projecting for the full-year. So our year-over-year growth is going to look similar between first half and second half. The year-over-year growth will be higher in the fourth quarter as both services and OE ramp. So we'll see that. Now in terms of profit and drop-through, the margins will be higher in 3Q versus 4Q since the 9x shipment impact is going to be primarily in the fourth quarter and corporate expenses will be higher in the fourth quarter as well. So we expect the third quarter margins to be kind of flattish year-over-year since we had a strong 3Q last year. So now if you look at kind of getting to how 3Q looks operationally, we've had a better start to 3Q. I think Larry mentioned that in his prepared remarks, the number of engines we've shipped here in the third quarter – in the first month of the third quarter in July are significantly higher than what we delivered in the first three weeks in April. So we are seeing sequential progress. And then if you look at the material inputs and as we compare the material inputs through the first three weeks in July versus the first three weeks in April, even for these suppliers that have been constraining output in the second quarter, we've seen a significant improvement. So that's going to allow us to drive the sequential improvement here in the third quarter. So I think we are off to a good start. More work to do here for sure. But July has been encouraging. Anything to add?
Lawrence Culp:
You got it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna with Cowen.
Gautam Khanna:
Yes. Hey, good morning. Thank you, guys.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning.
Gautam Khanna:
And good results.
Rahul Ghai:
Thanks, Gautam.
Lawrence Culp:
Thank you.
Gautam Khanna:
So I was curious just to follow-up. Could you talk a little bit about how much inventory you're actually absorbing incrementally in the guidance? And maybe if you can speak to what your strategy is with the supply chain, given some folks are constrained, but some folks are probably ahead, given the lower LEAP projection relative to the start of the year? Like are you in the process of slowing down some folks. If you could just talk about that inventory dynamic and what you're absorbing incrementally in, any color you can provide? Thanks.
Lawrence Culp:
Well, maybe we'll just take those in reverse order, and I'll start. I think that we really aren't trying to slowdown in a meaningful way. We're really trying. The way I think about it is we're trying to make sure that we're calibrated with respect to what we need from everybody because as you point out, different folks are in different places, as we think about the back half, as we think about 2025, as we think about 2026. I think part of why this has been so challenging and maybe even head scratchingly so for some, is that the industry was dialed down to almost zero in the pandemic. And what we don't want to do and the reason we do carry probably more inventory today, well, at year-end than we would like is we don't want to turn down the folks that are performing well unduly as we calibrate the ramp rates with those that will, in all likelihood, paces. So we've taken a view that in some instances, the inventory is in effect an investment with the supply base for ourselves to make sure that we've got a more predictable ramp. Remember, a lot of lean is rooted in flow, and flow really is around availability to the extent that we've got some folks that are performing. We don't want to, if you will, penalize them as we think about all that we're going to need from them, not only over the next six months, but frankly, over the coming years.
Rahul Ghai:
And Gautam, you'll see that in our Q. I think you're spot on. We've seen significant inventory growth here in the first half of the year, close to $1.2 billion of inventory growth, which is, call it, $0.5 billion higher than what we grew in the first half of last year. So significant headwind here. Now with the improvement in output that we are projecting here for the second half of the year, we do think that while inventory will grow in the second half of the year, obviously, the pace of growth will slow down significantly here. And then it won't be as much of a headwind as it was last year in the second half of the year. So it has been a challenge. But again, as Larry said, that is something we've been trying to manage and manage it as appropriately as we can. But the good news is, despite the $1 billion pool of inventory growth in the first half of the year, we still had 120% conversion. So strong cash growth. Cash was up about $1 billion year-over-year in the first half. So we kind of absorbed it, we managed it and try to do better in the second half.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.
Scott Deuschle:
Hey. Good afternoon.
Rahul Ghai:
Good afternoon.
Lawrence Culp:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Deuschle:
Hey, Larry. Not to beat a dead horse, but just following up on Myles' earlier question. I was wondering if you could offer some more detail on those, I guess, six or so remaining supplier sites that are the key bottlenecks at this point? Basically trying to understand if we're down to the investment casting and forging suppliers at this point or if it's a broader side of bottlenecks. And I appreciate you not wanting to pointing fingers, but just get a sense for whether there's something in common undergirding this remaining set of suppliers? Thanks.
Lawrence Culp:
Got it. I think you've heard me pretty clearly. I appreciate that. I think the common denominator is, frankly, we all need to do better, and we need to be more collaborative and fully in problem solving mode. That's the headset that we have at GE Aerospace. I'm convinced while that takes different forms of different suppliers, that is where everyone of those nine suppliers across those 15 sites are. Some made more progress than others, but it's a long race, right? This was not a 90-day sprint, this is a marathon. And regardless of where folks are from a commodity category perspective, from a geography perspective, publicly held, privately held, it just doesn't matter, right? We've got to get the teams in. We've got to go deep. We've got to get into the granular operational detail to solve those problems, unlock those constraints and increased capacity raise yields much as I think we have been doing, picked up the pace a bit here, I think, in the second quarter and just need to do a lot more of that broadly in the second half.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good afternoon.
Rahul Ghai:
Good afternoon, Robert.
Robert Stallard:
Just following on from your earlier comments, Larry, and your confidence in GE's ability to deliver new engines in the second half. What's your confidence in the relative forecasts of the airframers and also their broader supply chain also catching up and delivering the parts?
Lawrence Culp:
Well, I think we'll leave to our customers' commentary on everything they're managing. We're focused on what we can manage, right? And I think that the updated guide here, the color around LEAP specifically, is certainly that of high confidence. It wouldn't come out of our mouths. It wouldn't be in our prepared remarks otherwise. But again work to do. Work we’re I think we're encouraged by with respect to the second quarter impact, the start to July as well. But we've got a lot of work in front of us. We've got many days to do that work. That's where this team is focused completely. I can assure you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, good morning everyone.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
You show on Slide 17 that the CES services orders are growing much faster than revenue and the absolute dollar levels are much higher. I guess, eventually, overall aftermarket has to normalize as we fully recover air travel growth. What's behind that? How much of that is the LEAP? And does that suggest that CES services growth can actually accelerate next year versus this year?
Rahul Ghai:
No, no, you're right. I mean, we had a good second quarter on orders. We had a good first half. I mean services orders were kind of, as you said, mid-30s for the second quarter, up 30% or so for the first half. Strong book-to-bill here in the first half of the year on top of a good book-to-bill we saw in 2023. So the momentum is definitely there on the services side. And as you look at the back half of the year, we are expecting the services growth to be a little bit higher in the second half than in the first half, right, both the shop visits and on spare parts on a year-over-year basis. So we delivered 9% internal shop visit growth in the first half of the year. And if you look at our low to mid-teens guidance on shop visits, that would imply that shop visits will be closer to high teens in the second half of the year on a year-over-year basis. So that's what we are projecting. But overall, it's mid-teens services growth, and that is consistent with what we think the future years will look like. I think that we had – when we look at our 2025 outlook, we were projecting continuous strong services growth. So it's good to see the strong orders growth, good to see, as Larry said earlier, LEAP gaining share on the overall air traffic departure side as well.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Gavin Parsons with UBS.
Gavin Parsons:
Thanks. Good morning.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning.
Gavin Parsons:
I mean, I guess to Rob's question earlier on extending life of older engines, clearly strong demand for both growth and new aircraft. But it's been a couple of airline profit warnings over the last week or two. So I just wanted to ask if you've had any early indications from your discussions with customers, whether it be relating to fleet planning, sensitivity to pricing or any other changes? Thanks.
Lawrence Culp:
Gavin, as you would imagine, we follow all of that pretty closely, both, well, in the U.S., here in Europe globally. We really have not seen any effect on our business. And to Rahul's comments a moment ago, will remain watchful, but don't anticipate that. Again, I think to the earlier question, with services orders up 36% in CES in the second quarter, that's the way our customers are speaking to us. I look at where we are here in the third quarter just in terms of how much of the spares activity we have in backlog, I think it's in the 90% range at this point. So well positioned very early here in the quarter. And again, I would just also point to the utilization that we see on the CFM56, still strong. No real change this year. And the uptake, the upshot of the LEAP taking four points of market share. So GE-powered narrowbody activity remains strong. You just take the comments that were out here in Europe yesterday, it seemed to be more pricing oriented than anything else. So we'll keep a weather eye out. But right now, our challenge, our struggles to keep up with this exceptionally strong demand, both in the aftermarket and again with new make.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Jason Gursky with Citi.
Jason Gursky:
Hey. Good morning, everybody.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning, Jason.
Jason Gursky:
Hey. Larry, I was wondering if you could just spend a few more minutes on the rise and maybe provide an update on development milestones there and how the customer conversations are going, at this point, you mentioned that you're showcasing the engine there, at Farnborough, I'm just kind of curious what you think customer acceptance is going to – is shaping up to look like at this point?
Lawrence Culp:
Jason, I would say that customer interest seems to only build with the passage of time. This is now the third air show in a row that I've attended with the RISE engine, the Open Fan engine front and center here. Obviously, when we talk about RISE, we're really talking about an umbrella of different technology programs, not only the Open Fan, but also our compact core work or hybrid electric activity and everything we're doing on SaaS. But with respect to Open Fan, I think what we've been sharing with people is that we had a very good first ingestion test with the Open Fan blade in the quarter, we are starting our second endurance campaign or test with the high-pressure turbine airfoils. And there's been a lot of work with respect to the hybrid electric elements of that architecture work that, as you may know, we do with NASA. I mentioned, I think, earlier the wind tunnel testing that we've done here in Europe in conjunction with Airbus. So there, I think, over 200 – I think maybe it's 250 component level tests, module level tests that we have behind us this is still a technology development effort. Make no mistake about it, we've got a long way to go. But what's interesting, particularly here in Europe, in virtually every airline CEO that I talk to starts the conversation with sustainability. And I'm very keen to get our views on SAF compatibility, but also ahead of SAF capacity being available at scale what are we going to do to enable the next generation of narrowbodies. And we go hard and fast to rise, talk about the progress that we're making with Open Fan. And I think that is story that continues to build enthusiasm and support because we know that the ultimate target that 20% step-up in propulsive efficiency and emissions reduction really is the future of flight.
Blaire Shoor:
We have time for one last question.
Operator:
This question will come from the line of Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.
Matthew Akers:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Thanks for the question.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning, Matt.
Matthew Akers:
I wanted to ask, what are kind of your latest thoughts on LEAP kind of breakeven timing just given volumes are running a little bit lower than we thought and it sounds like you're deploying a lot of resources to work through some of the supplier issues. Just curious if the timing has shifted at all?
Rahul Ghai:
Yes. Hello, Matt. Timing has not shifted. So we expected LEAP to be profitable here in 2024 and the program to be breakeven in 2025. And LEAP services, in fact, shaping a little bit better than what we originally thought as we started the year, and we mentioned that in our prepared remarks. So that's how the overall program is shaping up we're making the progress on durability that we were expecting. It will be LEAP’s tracking better than CFM56 at this stage of the life cycle we are expecting LEAP performance to be in line with CFM56 performance on the A320s by the end of the year. So that is obviously a huge milestone given all the improvements we've been driving, the HPT LEAP was the last thing that was – and we expect that to happen here in the fourth quarter. We've completed more than 3,500 tests from that, 3,500 hours of testing on that. So that's going really well. So all in, I think LEAP is progressing exactly the way we would have liked services like a little bit better program should break even next year.
Blaire Shoor:
Larry, any final comments?
Lawrence Culp:
Blaire, thank you. I think just to close, the GE Aerospace team is going to stay grounded in our responsibility that we share to live the purpose, to invent the future of flight to lift people up and bring them home safely. So we really appreciate your time today and, of course, your interest in GE Aerospace.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Liz, and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE Aerospace's first quarter 2024 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai. Many of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filing and website, those elements may change as the world changes. With the spin-off of GE Vernova successfully completed earlier this month, GE Vernova will report its results separately on April 25. While included in our consolidated first quarter results, we're focusing today's commentary and Q&A primarily on GE Aerospace. Now over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you, and good morning everyone. Welcome to our first earnings call as GE Aerospace, now a pure-play global leader in propulsion, services and systems. We're wholly focused on our aerospace and defense customers, serving the 900,000 passengers in the air right now with our technology under wing. It's an incredible responsibility for our teams globally and why we take safety and quality so seriously. We'll come back to GE Aerospace in a moment. But before we do, we'll talk about GE on a consolidated basis, which is how we operated for the first few months of this year. Just three weeks ago on April the 2nd, we completed GE Vernova spin and launched GE Aerospace, ringing the bell at the New York Stock Exchange after the successful spin of GE HealthCare last year. It was a proud moment that we celebrated with our teams around the world. This marked a new beginning, following the completion of GE's multi-year transformation that strengthened our businesses both financially and operationally. Thanks to the GE team. We significantly improved our financial position, reducing debt by more than $100 billion since 2018 and enhanced our operational execution by embracing lean with a relentless focus on safety, quality, delivery and cost, in that order, to better serve our customers. Together, we built a strong foundation for our three independent companies that to date have increased shareholder value nearly fivefold. Now GE begins again, three industry leaders fit for purpose for the next century plus and ready to put their stamps on the world
Rahul Ghai:
Thank you, Larry, and good morning, everyone. Larry, I fully share your enthusiasm as we embark on the next chapter of our journey as a standalone company. We will cover GE Aerospace's results on a standalone basis, the same as a full year guide. Also, for simplification, our results will be prepared on a reported basis, and we are limiting non-GAAP free cash flow adjustments to spin-related matters. Overall, GE Aerospace delivered a solid start to the year with all headline metrics up double-digits. Demand remained resilient. Orders grew 34% with similar growth rates in both Commercial Engines & Services or CES, and Defense & Propulsion Technologies or DPT. Revenue was up 15% from pricing, spare parts volume and an increase in wide-body and defense engine deliveries. Operating profit was $1.5 billion, up 24% with margins up 140 basis points to 19.1%. The profit growth was driven primarily by price, growth in services volume and favorable mix. Profit and margins were up in both CES and DPT. Adjusted corporate costs and elimination, including prior GE corporate costs were $130 million, down more than 20% year-over-year. Post the GE Vernova spin-off, we expect to incur roughly $300 million for the remaining wind-down of GE corporate office and close to $250 million to set up standalone infrastructure for GE Aerospace. We will continue to adjust these items from earnings and cash. Free cash flow was $1.7 billion, doubling year-over-year with higher earnings and working capital improvements offsetting AD&A outflow. Specifically, working capital was a source largely from strong collections and progress payments, while inventory was a headwind. The strength of our operational and financial fundamentals gives us confidence to return 70% to 75% of our available cash to investors. Earlier this month, we initiated a quarterly dividend at $0.28, a 250% increase. And at our Investor Day, we announced a $15 billion share buyback, a testament to the strength of our balance sheet. Through a new capital return framework, we are well positioned to create significant shareholder value while we continue to invest in growth, innovation and focused M&A. Now turning to CES and DPT results. Starting with CES, a $24 billion business with 70% of revenue generated from services. As Larry mentioned, demand continues to be robust. For the year, we now expect departures to grow high single-digits. Total departures are off to a stronger start versus our prior expectation, growing 11% in the quarter with particular strength in China. We continue to expect departure growth to moderate throughout the year. We expect passenger traffic growth in high single-digit range for the year, a slight improvement. Narrow-body remains solid with increased CFM56 fleet utilization and significant LEAP growth. Further, we now expect freight demand to be up low single-digits versus a prior expectation of down mid single-digits. Heightened geopolitical conflicts have increased the need for air cargo and improved its relative economics. As a result, commercial momentum continues. CES orders were up 34% this quarter. Both services and equipment were up double-digits, largely driven by strong demand for LEAP and spare parts across our platforms. Overall, customer dynamics remain positive with strong order books from both airlines and airframers. On narrow-body platforms, we won more than 300 LEAP-1B engines and a multiyear services agreement from Akasa Air. And on widebody platforms, recent key wins included 90 GEnx engines for Thai Airways, 16 GE9X engines for Ethiopian Airlines and 10 GEnx engines for LATAM Group. This improving demand backdrop underscores our confidence in our annual guide and longer-term outlook. Now looking at CES' first quarter results. Revenue grew 16% with volume up low double-digits and the remainder driven primarily by higher price. Services growth of 12% was driven by pricing and strong spare part volume, which grew faster than internal shop visits that were up 3%, impacted by material inputs challenges. Equipment growth of 31% was driven by pricing and deliveries, which were up 2% with higher wide-body engine mix. LEAP shipments were roughly flat year-over-year given the supply chain challenges. As expected, spare engine shipments were down slightly. Profit was $1.4 billion, up 17% with margins expanding 10 basis points from pricing, spare part sales and mix. This more than offset higher inflation investments and a change in estimated profitability on long-term service agreements on a mature platform, which negatively impacted both services revenue and profit by roughly $200 million. At CES, we are pleased with the strong start to the year, delivering significant growth and profit improvement. Turning to DPT, which includes both Defense & Systems and propulsion and additive technologies. This is roughly a $9 billion business, where services make up approximately 55% of the revenue. Looking at the sector broadly, national defense budgets are growing with U.S. spending expected to grow low-single digits and international spending up mid-single digits. Our defense customers’ ask of us is clear, support their readiness while delivering more and more predictably. Turning to our first quarter results. Orders were up 34%, underscoring strong demand and the quality of our franchisees with defense book-to-bill of 1.1x. Revenue grew 18%. Defense unit deliveries grew by 45 engines on an easier compare. This combined with pricing and growth in classified programs, increased Defense & Systems revenue by 17%. Propulsion and Additive Technologies grew 19%, primarily from growth at Avio and Unison to support GEnx and LEAP. Profit was $250 million, up 26%, with margins expanding 80 basis points. Volume and pricing, net of inflation, more than offset investments and defense equipment mix. In all, improved delivery and pricing drove strong revenue and profit growth this quarter. Given our solid start and constructive outlook for rest of the year, we are raising our full year profit and cash guidance, as outlined on Slide 11. We continue to project at least low-double digit revenue growth. In CES, we still expect revenue growth of mid to high teens. In services, we continue to expect mid-teens revenue growth with shop visit output growing faster than spare part sales. We are anticipating reduced LEAP output in the range of 10% to 15% growth, but continue to expect overall equipment revenue growth of high-teens from improving widebody mix. In DPT, we continue to expect mid to high single-digit revenue growth, primarily driven by equipment growth. Operating profit is now expected to be in a range of $6.2 billion to $6.6 billion, up from $6 billion to $6.5 billion previously. CES operating profit guidance is now expected to be in a range of $6.1 billion to $6.4 billion, up $100 million at the mid-point from favorable revenue dynamics. DPT profit guidance is unchanged. In corporate, we continue to expect cost and eliminations of about $1 billion, including $600 million of corporate expenses and roughly $400 million of eliminations. We now expect margins to expand roughly 50 basis points for the year versus flat previously. Now as a standalone company, we are initiating adjusted EPS in a range of $3.80 to $4.05, up more than 30% year-over-year. This includes first quarter adjusted EPS of approximately $0.92, up more than 40% year-on-year. And on free cash flow, we expect higher profit to flow through to cash, delivering more than $5 billion with conversion well above 100% of net income. Overall, we are encouraged by the strong start and the market environment that gives us confidence to raise our performance expectations for the year. Larry, back to you.
Larry Culp:
Rahul, thanks. We’re clearly off to a solid start this year. If I close on Slide 12, this captures the essence of GE Aerospace and what we take forward with us. We have an excellent franchise, with sustained competitive advantages and a compelling value proposition. Our platforms are preferred by customers across narrow-body, widebody and defense. We’re aiming to provide industry-leading reliability and durability, prioritizing safety and quality first, then delivery, finally, cost. This means delivering unmatched time on wing and faster turnaround times for our customers. And we’re doing this across the industry’s largest and growing fleets. With our deep domain expertise and talent, commitment to innovation and capacity to invest, we’re poised to deliver the breakthrough technologies of the future. And with FLIGHT DECK as our foundation to bring this all together, our team is poised to realize our full potential and deliver exceptional value for our customers and our shareholders. I’ve never been more confident in our path ahead as GE Aerospace. Before I pass it back to Steve for Q&A, I’d like to take a moment to recognize him and his many contributions to GE. As you know by now, today is Steve’s last call with us after more than five years with the company or put another way, after 22 earnings calls. His dedication and partnership leading the Investor Relations team and serving as a trusted strategic adviser to me and the rest of the leadership team here has been invaluable throughout our transformation. On behalf of myself and the entire team, Steve, we thank you and wish you the best of luck in your next chapter. And I know Rahul would like to say a few words.
Rahul Ghai:
Thanks, Larry. Steve, I want to personally thank you for your trusted advice and friendship, as I joined the company and as we executed the launches of GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Your strategic and operating depth and your collaborative style have been instrumental in our transformation. And I know many on this calls and on the calls in the year past are appreciative of your responsiveness to their questions and the work you have done to simplify our financial disclosures while communicating our transformation with clarity and candor. We wish you all the best, and I’ll pass it back to you, in the spirit of making you work till the last day, for questions.
Steve Winoker:
Larry, Rahul, thank you. I can’t go on just without at least one quick comment. It’s really been a true honor privilege and pleasure to serve with you and the rest of the teams at GE and GE Aerospace, a real master class for me. Thank you for always giving our investors and analysts a seat at the table. And I’m deeply grateful, proud of the teams and excited to see what comes next, and I know the futures of GE Aerospace, GE Healthcare and GE Vernova are bright indeed. So now before we open the line, I’d ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts again and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. And if we have extra time, we’ll circle back around. We ask that you please save any GE Vernova questions until their earnings call later this week again. Liz, can you please open the line?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.
David Strauss:
Great. Thanks. Good morning. Congrats, Steve.
Steve Winoker:
Good morning.
David Strauss:
One to Larry, Rahul, I wanted to ask about the updated LEAP delivery guidance now, 10% to 15%, down from 20% to 25%. Could you just dig into that a little bit what drove that? Is that constraint on the supplier side? Is that Boeing taking down their schedule? What exactly went into that? Thanks.
Larry Culp:
Yes. I would say that, that clearly is a change here in the update this morning. Dave and company are going to talk about their rates tomorrow, I’m sure, on their earnings call. So we’ll leave that conversation with them. But rest assured, as we are with all of our customers, we’re well calibrated and aligned with respect to what we need to do, what they need from us as we look forward. But I think all of us, particularly at this moment, before we talk about rates, always come back to make sure we’re doing all that we can on the safety and quality fronts to ensure the best possible performance of our products, both as they’re being manufactured and then in turn, deployed in the field.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.
Ron Epstein:
Hey, good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Ron.
Ron Epstein:
If you could talk a little bit about the orders. I mean, they’re up pretty spectacularly. Commercial Engines and Services up 78%. Defense, Propulsion and Technologies, up 72%. How much is that volume versus pricing?
Rahul Ghai:
Ron, I would say most of that is volume. And pricing helped across the board, showed up in our revenue growth, margin expansion and in the orders outlook. But of a 34% increase in orders, I would say, most of that is coming from base volume growth with price contributing as well.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you. Good morning, Larry and Rahul and Steve.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Congratulations on elevating the Investor Relations game to the next level. So one for Larry or Rahul. Q1 margins, you guys have done a really great job, 19%, 150 bps above the prior guide – sorry, the midpoint. Rahul, maybe if you could revisit the 2 points of margin headwind you pointed us to last quarter. You mentioned LEAP is lower on that unit volume maybe about 40 bps of a tailwind versus your original guide, and then GE9X is probably consistent. So maybe if you could talk about the puts and takes along with the investment and timing to get us to that mid-17% range for the year?
Rahul Ghai:
Okay. A couple of things in there, Sheila. Let me start with where you started, which was the 2 points of margin headwind that we had spoken to on the January call and on our Investor Day. So if you go back, we had expected 2 points of margin pressure from LEAP OE ramp, introduction of 9X and the step-up in R&D to support LEAP durability, introduction of 9X and develop the future of flight. Now with the pushout of LEAP volume, that headwind of the 2 points is marginally lower. But now if you step back and look at our overall guide for the year, listen, strong start to the year. We are pleased with where we are. And that has given us confidence to raise guidance for the full year and we expect the momentum to fully continue as we get into the second quarter. And overall, for first half, we are expecting about low double-digit revenue growth and about half of profit and free cash for the year, so far more linear year than we’ve done in the past. And overall, as you step back and look at the full year, profit up $150 million at the midpoint of our guide to a range of $6.2 billion to $6.6 billion, call it, mid-teens profit growth and more than 30% EPS growth. So it will be a good year if you deliver these numbers.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Good morning and good luck, Steve. If I adjust CES for the $200 million long-term contract adjustment, the CES margins are up like 250 basis points year-on-year despite this OE growth at 2x aftermarket growth. And I hear what you’re saying, a roll on the spares exceeding shop visits. But is there anything else under the surface that really explains that kind of counterintuitive margin expansion?
Rahul Ghai:
No, listen, we had a good start in CES, $1.4 billion of profit, margin expansion despite the CMR, the service profit adjustment that we had to make in the quarter. And the big drivers here were pricing and customer mix, both on the equipment and on services. The mix shift from – mix shift in OE from LEAP to wide-body mix health and also in services, our spare part volume growth was higher than shop visit growth. So that mix shift in services was a contributor as well. So encouraging start, but as you go through the year, keep in mind that the equipment growth will ramp in the second half of the year. Equipment growth will also include 9X shipments and the services mix will skew back towards the shop visit growth, which we still expect to be maybe low to mid-teens for the year. So the second half profit growth on a year-over-year basis will be lower than the profit growth that we’ll see in the first half. But overall, listen, good start in CES, gives us confidence to raise the full year for CES in profit by about $100 million.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Robert Stallard:
Just following on from David’s question on the LEAP. Do these issues with ramping up the LEAP have positive implications for the CFM shop visit peak, which I think you’ve earlier estimated at 2025, and also the height of that peak potentially going forward?
Larry Culp:
Well, I would say that we do see, I think, some knock-on positive effects in the aftermarket, both here in 2024, but also in some of our projections. I think it was just even last month at Investor Day, we talked about how retirements have been lower than we would have anticipated, thus that should yield 200 incremental shop visits in 2024 relative to what we anticipated. I think as long as capacity demand remains strong, I get a report every morning at 6 a.m. this morning showed our departures on a worldwide basis across all of our platforms up 7.8%, right? That’s part of what Rahul alluded to in our prepared remarks with respect to our more optimistic outlook with respect to passenger demand. We know the airlines are looking to generate as much lift as they possibly can. And to the extent that they're paced by deliveries, retirements will slow. And that installed base will be worked. Unfortunately, much of that came from our factories, and we're well positioned to support that. Does that push out the timing of perhaps peak CFM56? Yes. But it's early, right? And I don't think we're going to try today to take a quarter in that timeframe as to when that might occur. But it's a positive dynamic for us in the aftermarket, both with existing platforms and increasingly with the LEAP.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.
Seth Seifman:
Hey, thanks very much. Good morning everyone and congratulations, Steve, and thanks for all the help. Wanted to ask about shop visit growth and sort of the any challenges around the guidance for the year and the level of visibility that you have, sort of starting off with 3% and needing to get to kind of at least a mid-teens type of number for the year. And that being constrained by various challenges in supply chain and internal productivity and kind of how much confidence you have around that ramp and shop visit growth.
Larry Culp:
Morning, Seth. Clearly, if we're going to talk about a guide as we are this morning, there's a high level of conviction. But I think you put your finger on what we are working on day-in, day-out here operationally. I think the financial numbers year-over-year are strong, but we know that we could have delivered. We could have executed on more shop visits in the first quarter had we had more reliable, more predictable material flow into our shops. That doesn't impact us as much in terms of spare parts, right? We don't need everything necessarily to move that product to customers, but we do in the case of a shop visit. Some of the FLIGHT DECK examples that I referenced, I think, give us real encouragement that the work we're doing with those top five or top 15 supplier sites is yielding progress. If you look at what we've seen just here in April. We've had a stronger start to the second quarter in terms of shop visit activity, completed outputs than we did in January. That's one comparison that we focus on, because we still are not as linear through the course of a quarter as we would like and making good use of the first two, three, four weeks of a quarter is critical for us to be able to deliver the year-over-year a little on the sequential growth that we would like to see that's embedded here, and most importantly, what our customers need from us given how active they're working in these assets. So the supply chain topic is still relevant. I suspect we'll be talking about it again for the foreseeable future, but I'm very encouraged by the progress that we're making. We just need to make a whole lot more.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.
Ken Herbert:
Hi good morning and congratulations, Steve.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Ken.
Ken Herbert:
Larry or Rahul, you called out freight as a source of growth in the quarter. And I think you raised your full year outlook there from sort of previously down maybe low single to now up low single as we think about the impact in CES. Is that just in relation to what we've seen in the Middle East? Are you seeing other fundamental changes that give you more confidence there? And how do we think about that impact specifically as we think about the CES business and where you're seeing that flow through?
Larry Culp:
Well, Ken, you're spot on. We're taking that again to level set everybody from an outlook I had is down mid-singles this year to now a positive low single-digit number. I think there is some influence here from what's happening in the Middle East. But I think we're just seeing a higher demand overall from an air cargo perspective. That will principally course through our wide-body exposure more so than the single aisles. And I don't think we're going to quantify it here, but that's certainly part of what is behind the improved service outlook and thus, the improved overall outlook for the rest of this year.
Rahul Ghai:
And Ken, just to add to that, the direct impact is all depends on the number of shop visits that kind of move into the year. And I think that is – that always takes time. So there’s not a direct correlation here that may show up during the year. But overall, as we look over an extended period of time, as we look at 2024, 2025 combined, that will definitely be a positive driver. So we do expect the benefit from the higher freight departures to be in our financials. The question is probably not as much in 2024, more in 2025.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen.
Gautam Khanna:
Hey, good morning, and congrats, Steve.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Gautam.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Gautam Khanna:
So you guys mentioned the lower LEAP production this year. I assume it’s a function of lower one BOE needs. But I was curious if you could just help us understand how we should think about the LEAP OE versus spares provisioning mix this year versus your prior expectations? And also wondering, given the lower rate on LEAP, are you going to be slowing down some of your LEAP suppliers? Or given the comments you made on the constraints within the supply chain, are you still pushing all these guys to continuously raise production to work as hard as they can?
Larry Culp:
Let me take those in reverse order. I’ll speak to the supply chain, and Rahul can speak to where we are from a spares perspective. As I indicated, we’re calibrated with both of our major narrow-body airframers. As we do that, we are always in turn, calibrating with the supply base. And I think what we want to do in that work is make sure we’re not overly indexed, if you will, on the next quarter or two, so important. We want to make sure that we are preparing over the next several years to ramp; given the skylines that both of our major air framer customers enjoy today, right? A single-aisle slot is a scarce commodity. If we were out looking for one day, we might not find it until the next decade. That said, I think everybody, GE Aerospace included is primarily focused on making sure from a safety and a quality perspective that we are in no way compromising as we think about the wonderful gift we have in the form of these robust skylines. And that’s been at the heart of the GE work, the lean transformation for years now. Right here is talk about SQDC, safety and quality before delivering cost. It’s at the core of FLIGHT DECK and everything that we do. Rahul, spares?
Rahul Ghai:
So on the spare engine, Gautam, overall, our spare engine ratio came down slightly in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis. And we do expect the full year spare engine ratio to be down as well versus 2023 kind of as we’ve communicated before. So really not a lot of change here from the change that we are making in the LEAP install engine output to translate into spare engines. So we still expect the spare engine ratio to be down year-over-year. And it will be – it will keep coming down over the next couple of years, I would say, on a gradual basis, Gautam, just given where LEAP spare engine has been in the past. So we expect a continued decline here in the spare engine ratio over the next couple of years gradually.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.
Scott Deuschle:
Hey, good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Scott.
Rahul Ghai:
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Deuschle:
Hey Rahul, what does the 100% free cash flow conversion target for 2028 assumed with respect to the proportion of new engines being sold on CSAs in that timeframe, particularly on LEAP. Mainly, I’m just curious if you’re assuming LEAP mostly migrates to T&M by that time? Thanks.
Rahul Ghai:
We do expect, Scott, that as we go through the year, as you go through the decade, I should say, that there will be more T&M contracts. Keep in mind, as Russell spoke at Investor Day, our 2030 target for LEAP is we do about 60% or so of the shop visits between us and Safran, and 40% are done externally. And of that 60%, there will be a mix between CSAs and T&M, but we are actively working to increase the T&M population. Our CBSA partners are standing up there helping us as well. So we would see a migration from CSAs to T&M contracts with about 60% of the shop visits done in-house here between Safran and GE Aerospace, and the remaining 40% being done by our channel partners.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.
Robert Spingarn:
Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Robert Spingarn:
Congrats to the team for this new chapter and getting through the spins, and congrats to you, Steve. I wanted to ask you, Larry, about RISE, just to change the topic a little bit, and the potential here to deliver 20% improvement in fuel consumption versus current engines, both air framers appear interested in RISE. And if competing engine OEMs aren't providing an open fan architecture, could we find ourselves in a position where RISE is or CFM is the only engine provider for the next-gen narrow bodies? Or do you think that the need for competition changes that dynamic?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think where we're focused today is really in two areas
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak:
Can you hear me?
Rahul Ghai:
We can.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, loud and clear.
Noah Poponak:
Hi. Sorry it cut out on my end. But, good morning everyone and let me add my congratulations to completing the spin. And Steve thanks a lot for all your help getting up to speed.
Steve Winoker:
Thank you.
Noah Poponak:
Rahul, could you spend another minute on the free cash in the quarter and for the full year. If you're going to have any seasonality that looks like the company used to or the industry often does through the year, that number in the first quarter would imply a lot of upside to the five. I know you highlighted working capital, timing, it didn't look like that big of a number in the quarter on an absolute basis. Maybe it's just normally weaker. So yes, I guess how much bigger is the greater sign on the five now than it was before? Or did you just truly have pure timing in the quarter?
Rahul Ghai:
Yes. So Noah, listen, good start on cash. Obviously, pleased. We doubled our free cash flow at Aerospace year-over-year. I would say, first, let's just talk about the quarter. Two main drivers here
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.
Matt Akers:
Yes. Hi, good morning guys.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Matt Akers:
Can you touch a little bit more on the $650 million investment, just the benefits you expect to get from that? And it looks like there's a lot of additive manufacturing in there. Can you just talk about that opportunity as well?
Larry Culp:
Well, it really is a broad-based enhancement of our existing domestic footprint. I'm sure you've seen some of the line item details that were publicized locally across the country. I think more than anything, what we wanted to do was make sure we were supporting the fixed capital investments required to operationalize FLIGHT DECK to prepare for the capacity expansions and in some instances, be it additive or in some other technologies like CMCs that we were getting out ahead of demand to the fullest extent possible. Again, back to the reality of the skylines we talked about earlier. So that's what we'll do. That's kind of the announcement that we made here recently. I'm sure there will be follow-on announcements as we continue to invest. But the most important investments, I think we make are those that we make in our people. And much of what we do from a training development perspective, especially, vis-à-vis, FLIGHT DECK, is really geared toward making sure that the people who come in every day are able to do great work and put those fixed assets to their highest and best use.
Steve Winoker:
Hey Liz, we have time for one last question.
Operator:
This question will come from the line of Jason Gursky with Citi.
Jason Gursky:
Yes. Same thing with Noah. Can you hear me all?
Rahul Ghai:
We can.
Larry Culp:
Very well. Good morning.
Jason Gursky:
Yes. Okay. Does go quiet right before you're allowed to go on the line. Hey Steve, thanks for all of the help over the last year or so. And Blair, look forward to working with you. I'm sure you're listening in. Larry, a clarification point here and then just a really quick question. On the clarification side of things, I think in your commentary about volume on LEAP during your prepared remarks, you talked a little bit about the supply chain being a bit of a constraint there. So I want to make sure that that's the case in addition to whatever is going on with Boeing. And then on the question side of things, the – just kind of curious how the customer tone is these days on the narrow-body side when with those airlines where you're competing for slots against the Pratt & Whitney engine, whether the tone of those conversations is any more constructive for you in the competitive environment is looking more optimistic for you on head-to-head competition against the Pratt engine. Thanks.
Larry Culp:
Yes. I would say, as I think both Rahul and I have commented, that we're well calibrated with Boeing on the LEAP-1B requirements. We'll leave it to Dave and Brian to speak to the details tomorrow. I think as we look forward, not only with that engine, but others, the supply chain challenge that we've touched on in prior calls continues to be relevant. With respect to new business, I think if you look at our win rates, particularly in narrow-body space over the last several years, we've been very encouraged by the sequential trend, the upticks that we have seen there. And we will continue to work hard to earn the business that ought to come our way. No change in that posture whatsoever.
Steve Winoker:
So Larry, any final comments?
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you. And again, thanks for everything. Yes, let me just close. I hope you see here that the GE Aerospace team is moving forward with a greater focus to invent the future of flight, to lift people up and bring them home safely. And with FLIGHT DECK as our foundation, I'm confident we will realize our full potential in service of our customers, employees and shareholders. We appreciate your time today and your interest in GE Aerospace.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Liz and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator instructions] If you experience issues with the webcast slides refreshing or there appears to be delays in the slight advancement, please hit F5 on your keyboard to refresh. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE's fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO Larry Culp, and CFO, Rahul Ghai. We are also pleased to have GE Vernova CEO, Scott Strazik here to share additional insights of our performance and business guidance. Many of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes. Over to Larry?
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you and good morning, everyone. GE made tremendous progress in 2023 with excellent operating results, the successful spin of GE Healthcare, and the ongoing lean transformation of our company. 2024 will be a momentous year, as we launched GE Aerospace and GE Vernova in early April. Looking at our results, we more than tripled our earnings and generated almost 70% more free cash flow in 2023. The GE Aerospace drove double digit revenue, profit and cash growth with continued strength in commercial engines and services. Deep and over delivered meaningfully better results as Renewable Energy and Power together generated positive profit and free cash flow. In the year ahead, we expect both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova to continue on their respective upward trajectories. Let me spend a moment on each. GE Aerospace is an exceptional franchise, with our fleet of 44,000 commercial engines and 26,000 rotorcraft and combat engines plus extensive aftermarket services representing 70% of revenue. We live our purpose each day to invent the future of flight, lift people up and bring them home safely. It's a responsibility we take very seriously. And our teams are focused on safety, quality, delivery and cost in that order, in everything we do to support our customers in the industry. Strategically, today we're executing to meet customer needs for engines and services. Despite the challenge supply chain environment in the quarter, total engine deliveries were up 11% sequentially, including defense up over 60%. We delivered 1,570 LEAP engines representing 38% growth yet with more to do going forward. As part of our lean transformation, we're developing connected flow using model lines to improve deliveries. By focusing on key constraints we reduce lead times, for example, over 40% on our ceramic matrix composite components. And in services we've improved lead shot visit turnaround times by double digits. Lean is not only helping us with delivery but more importantly, when it comes to safety and quality. A team in Rutland, Vermont used lean problem solving fundamentals to address recurring defects in our GEnx low pressure turbine blades. It's improved first time yield by more than 50%. Lean actions like these within our plants and in partnership with suppliers are driving improvements across GE Aerospace. For tomorrow, we're building our $150 billion plus backlog. At the Dubai Airshow, GE Aerospace along with our partners received over 450 engine commitments and several service agreements across both wide bodies and narrow bodies. This included in Emirates order for 202 GE9X engines and spares and a long-term services agreement to Power its upcoming Boeing 777X fleet. And we're keeping our customers fleets flying with durability and maintenance enhancements such as our LEAP-1A fuel module cooling system, it's on its way to fleet introduction. And for the future we're investing in R&D and developing next generation technologies. Recently NASA selected GE Aerospace for Phase 2 of the hybrid thermally efficient core program, which will significantly enhance fuel efficiency and reduce emissions, improvements will leverage in our RISE program and the National Defense Authorized funding for the Adaptive Engine Transition Program and the next generation advanced propulsion program, which will help providing -- provide cutting edge future military capabilities. All said GE Aerospace is accelerating our progress with lean and deriving value long term, all-in service of our customers who carry the 3 billion people traveling with our engines, underwing each year. Over to GE Vernova. Our ambition is to electrify and decarbonize the world. With our technologies, helping to generate approximately 30% of the world's electricity and where services represent 65% of our backlog. Our incumbency and scale position us to lead. We've made a lot of progress at Vernova. I'll give you the high level framing and Scott's here today with additional color. Power delivered strong growth, profit and free cash. Grid was profitable for the full year and Onshore delivered another quarter of profitability. Offshore remain challenging, but I really liked the way we're using lean along with better commercial selectivity and underwriting to improve our outlook. GE Renewable will stand on its own soon. I'm proud of the team's work to strengthen these businesses. And on a more personal note, I met Scott during my very first GE, Scott site visit. I have seen his leadership and action as he's led the team and executing the impressive turnaround at Gas Power. And now the strong momentum building with our Onshore and Grid businesses. Importantly, Scott is an ardent student of lean, and I'm highly confident that he is the right person to lead GE Vernova into the future. Turning to slide 3 with our stronger, more valuable businesses delivering now, GE Aerospace and GE Vernova are ready to go. We've assembled two extraordinary boards, bringing together domain expertise, diverse perspectives and leadership experience to help GE Aerospace and GE Vernova rise to their sharper, more focused missions. We've also further simplified and strengthened our balance sheet, fully exiting our AerCap equity stake. Looking ahead, GE Vernova plans to publicly file its Form 10 next month, then GE Vernova and GE Aerospace will host Investor Days on March 6 and 7 respectively in New York City. Both teams are excited to share how we'll create greater value for our customers and shareholders alike. We hope to see many of you there. Now over to Rahul.
Rahul Ghai:
Thank you, Larry. And good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 4, we will speak to results on an organic basis. We close out the year with another solid quarter. Orders were up across all segments driven by services up 24%, revenue increased 13% with all segments up double digits. Adjusted operating profit was up 20%, supporting margin expansion of 50 basis points driven by volume and price net of inflation. This was partially offset by negative mix from higher equipment and investments in growth. Adjusted EPS was $1.03, up 56%. Free cash flow was $3 billion from stronger earnings and positive working capital largely driven by progress collections, including recent sizable orders. This was partially offset by payables including the actions we have taken to support our suppliers. For the full year, revenue increased 17%. Aerospace and Renewables led the way benefiting from robust demand, better execution and pricing. Services was up 15% and equipment up 19%. Profit, EPs and cash all finished above the high end of our guidance. Adjusted operating profit increased $2.5 billion to $5.7 billion. Adjusted margin expanded by over 300 basis points driven by aerospace growth, sizeable renewables improvement and price across the three businesses, partially offset by inflation on long lead items and investments in growth. Adjusted EPS increased more than $2 supported by strong profit growth and lower interest from debt reduction. Free cash flow was up over $2 billion to $5.2 billion driven by significantly better earnings. In 2023, working capital was a $1.6 billion source of cash from progress collections, partially offset by inventory build, given robust growth and continued supply chain challenges. A moment in corporate. We ended the year with just over $1 billion of cash use and adjusted costs of roughly $460 million. This improved year-over-year due to lower functional expenses and higher interest income. Overall, it represents significant progress since 2021 when costs were $1.2 billion. We are pleased to see digital turn profitable as the team prepares to formally join GE Vernova. Our industry leading software helps utilities, Grid operators and others address the growing complexity of energy transition. And GE Aerospace and GE Vernova are ready to go. The teams are fully staffed and corporate headcount, which was close to 5,000, just a few years ago, stands at less than 200 people who will be with us into second quarter to execute the final spin. This temporary cost in the first half of 2024 is embedded in GE Aerospace’s full year guidance. Stepping back, we are pleased with our performance in 2023. In 2024, on a standalone basis, we expect GE Aerospace and GE Vernova to grow revenue, profit and cash. We will share more on business guidance shortly. Now turning to GE Aerospace, this quarter, demand remained robust with GE and CFM departures growing high teens year-over-year, orders were up 10% with solid services and commercial engine orders. Revenue was up 12% driven by commercial, up 15%. Profit was up 8% benefiting from increased services volume and pricing net of inflation. This was partially offset by unfavorable equipment mix from the expected higher installed and lower spare engine deliveries and higher investments. Reported margins are roughly flat year-over-year and down 70 basis points organically as unfavorable mix and investments offset higher volume and price net of inflation. In Commercial, services revenue was up 23% from higher volume, pricing and heavier work scopes. External spare parts increased with higher LEAP volume and internal shop visits were up slightly. Lean is enabling us to create new capacity to meet higher demand and decrease turnaround time and cost. For example, our MRO team in Prestwick, Scotland, use Lean to remove 76 hours of waste from the engine disassembly process, which will help them to go from servicing 3.5 engines a week to 5 engines a week. Revenue grew 1% with LEAP deliveries up 22% as expected, our mix continued to shift towards install engines. In Defense, book-to-bill was 1x underscoring solid demand and the quality of our franchises. Revenue was down 1% driven by lower services. While equipment grew double digits from higher combat engine deliveries. For the year, revenue was up 22%. Commercial services increased 30% with external spare parts up significantly. And internal shop visits up 10%. Commercial engines grew 21% with total engine deliveries up 25% and spare engine ratio consistent with 2022. Defense grew 7% with book-to-bill of approximately 1.2x for the second consecutive year, and orders were up 9%/ Profit was $6.1 billion increasing over $1 billion or 25% from services growth and pricing net of inflation. This was more than offset negative makes from higher LEAP volume and investments. Margins of 19.2% expanded 90 basis points on a reported basis and 50 basis points on an organic basis. Free cash flow of $5.7 billion increased approximately $800 million with improving earnings and working capital more than offsetting AD&A pressure. Now I'll hand it to Scott who will cover GE Vernova.
Scott Strazik:
Thanks, Rahul. It's a pleasure to join you, Larry and Steve on the last GE earnings call before we launched GE Vernova, a purpose built company that's enabling electrification, and decarbonization. We built a strong, experienced leadership team. And we're excited to welcome Jessica Uhl to our leadership team as President overseeing technology, innovation and growth. I'm encouraged by what our team accomplished in 2023 as we deliver meaningfully better results now. Our Renewable Energy and Power businesses combined drove double digit revenue growth, we're slightly profitable, improving profit over $1 billion and generated $600 million of cash this year. At Renewable Energy, our operational turnaround produced sizeable improvement. In the fourth quarter, orders were just over $5 billion, including the cancellation of a large Offshore order that was originally booked in 2Q ‘23. Excluding this cancellation, orders grew over 20% led by stronger Onshore equipment, and repower. We also secured a record 2.4 gigawatt order to support Pattern Energy's SunZia project expected to be the largest wind project in US history. Revenue increased double digits. Grid grew double digits for the fifth consecutive quarter, Offshore more than doubled as we deliver our existing backlog and Onshore grew driven by North America equipment volume. Profit improved over $100 million is Onshore and Grid more than offset pressure at Offshore. Looking at the year, orders were $23 billion, up over 50% with revenue, up 17%. Profit improved roughly $1 billion driven by price, quality and productivity and Onshore and Grid plus the absence of last year's largely Onshore related charges. Free cash flow was negative $1.5 billion, which improved by over $0.5 billion from better earnings and higher down payments. Looking closer at the businesses. At Grid, price and higher volume enabled full year profitability following three consecutive quarters of profit, while our backlog more than doubled to over $12 billion, with average margins in backlog increasing approximately five points. Lean is core here. Take our Pennsylvania facility that makes transmission circuit breakers. We increased flow and doubled production capacity helping reduce product lead times by about 35%. This will speed up delivery to customers at a time when demand is rising. Onshore has been profitable for two consecutive quarters. North America equipment orders increased more than 70%. We've grown our global Onshore equipment backlog roughly 40% to nearly $9 billion and approximately 70% of the backlog is North America. Importantly, margins in our total Onshore equipment backlog expanded over 10 points due to continued selectivity and pricing. We're delivering reliable, high performing fleets with roughly 60% of our proactive enhancement in the field completed with more to come. We streamlined our product lineup focusing on higher quality workhorse products, roughly 70% of 2023 volume. And we're still increasing productivity and lowering fixed costs significantly. Offshore wind was challenging, with losses of roughly $1.1 billion in ‘23. We're executing the existing backlog, improving productivity with lean. We're starting 2024 with our equipment backlog down to roughly $4 billion, which we expect to largely complete over the next two years. Longer term, Offshore wind should play a key role in the energy transition. The industry is beginning to reset and while it does, will be highly selective on adding to the backlog. Turning the Power. We delivered another strong year led by Gas Power. Looking at the quarter, orders increased 4% with gas services growing double digits. Equipment orders declined largely as we exit steam new build, partially offset by higher Aeroderivatives. Revenue was up 12% driven by gas, equipment revenue grew driven by Aeroderivatives and heavy-duty gas turbine. Services were strong with higher contractual outages and upgrades. Profit was over $750 million with low double digit margins driven by services strength. As expected, margins contracted given higher equipment volume. In an individual quarter, additional units may weigh on margins. But this drives long term growth in higher margin services. And we're always focused on price and productivity to offset inflation. For the year, revenue grew 7%. We delivered 58 heavy-duty gas turbines with 14 HA’s, services were strong, up mid-single digits led by gas. Profit of roughly $1.4 billion grew by 10%. Importantly, gas achieve double digit margins this year. Here, lean is enabling higher productivity and growth. For example, our gas repairs team in Mexico created standard work to reduce cycle time and cost decreasing lead time by 75% and operating hours per unit by 44%. This is helping us deliver faster for our customers. Free cash flow was over $2 billion, up roughly $200 million. Power continues to be a strong, reliable source of cash generation. We're pleased with Power’s performance, strong, growing business, where higher margin services comprise around 80% of the backlog. Now, I'll turn it back to Rahul to discuss guidance.
Rahul Ghai:
Thanks Scott. With the spin just around the corner. First quarter will be the last time our reporting combined GE results, including GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. For this first quarter, we expect high single digit revenue growth driven by GE Aerospace. Adjusted EPS of $0.60 to $0.65, more than doubling year-over-year, driven by profit improvement and the absence of preferred stock dividend and free cash flow growth in line with net income growth. Our 2024 annual guidance reflects each business operating independently for the full year, incorporating standalone and other impacts that each will incur separately. I'll now hand it over to Scott and Larry to share the overall GE Vernova and GE Aerospace guides. And we will provide further details for both businesses in March. Scott, back to you.
Scott Strazik:
Thanks Rahul. GE Vernova is building momentum expecting substantial profit and free cash flow growth in 2024. We see solid organic growth with revenue between $34 billion to $35 billion, up low to mid-single digits from 2023 and adjusted EBITDA margin at the higher end of the mid-single digits range, up from low single digit EBITDA margin in ‘23. Supporting this outlook is continued price, productivity and benefits from restructuring efforts. A few highlights. We expect Gas Power to remain strong with continued services growth and low double digit margins. Onshore will continue to improve significantly achieving high single digit margins on roughly flat revenue from better mix, price and cost out. Offshore will continue to execute our current backlog with slight year-over-year improvement. Finally, Grid will expand to mid-single digit margins, primarily from higher volume and price. Our guidance assumes roughly $200 million of standalone and $100 million of other ongoing carveout costs. When converting from this year's expected operating profit margin for Power and renewables combined to adjusted EBITDA margin for GE Vernova including these costs plus D&A, the difference is roughly $0.5 billion or 1.5 points. On free cash flow. We expect $700 million to $1.1 billion from higher EBITDA and better working capital on a standalone basis, which includes absorbing our portion of the GE Pension. Given the multi decade secular talents and stronger financial trajectory ahead, we are excited to launch GE Vernova and partner with our customers to lead the energy transition forward. With that back to Larry.
Larry Culp:
At GE Aerospace, we're also excited about 2024. We expect another year of solid revenue growth, at least low double digits, including mid to high teens growth in commercial, which includes high teens growth in engines and mid-teens growth in services. Mid to high single digit growth for defense and systems, including our propulsion and additive technologies business. On our current reporting bases, the guidance implies $6.6 billion to $7.1 billion of operating profit, improving double digits at the midpoint of the range. On a standalone basis, including roughly $600 million of corporate and other standalone cost. This comes to approximately $6 billion to $6.5 billion of profit and applies flat margins year-over-year given the growth in LEAP , initial 9X shipments for the 777X platform and other growth investments. For free cash flow, we expect to generate over $5 billion, which remains well above 100% conversion, including standalone impacts. Our teams are looking forward to sharing additional insights in detail with you at our March Investor Day. In closing, 2023 was an excellent year. GE Aerospace drove double digit growth and GE Vernova delivered substantially better results. Both are on track for continued growth in 2024. While our sights are on the future, we're proud of what we've accomplished with over $100 billion in debt reduction behind us and $7 billion returned to shareholders in 2023, we remain fully focused day in and day out on using lean to improve how we serve our customers and deliver value for shareholders. Underpinning all of this is the GE team. My sincere thanks to all of you for the important work you did in 2023. I've never been more confident in the path ahead. We've created industry leaders that will carry GE’s commitment to innovation and continuous improvement while grounded in vital missions. At GE Aerospace, inventing the future of flight and at GE Vernova, electrifying and decarbonizing the world. We're ready to go. Steve, over to you.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line, Liz, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question, so we can get to as many people as possible in the next 20 to 25 minutes, please open the line.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Good morning. I was hoping to dig in a little bit on the commercial engines, high teens growth. And maybe if you could break down a little bit, does it still include about 2,000 LEAP deliveries? And also is the spares ratio, similar to ‘23? I know you mentioned ‘23 was similar to ’22.
Larry Culp:
Myles, I think from a from a CES or commercial engine and services perspective. We're going to see engines lead the way, engines will be up high teens plus, I think you're going to see services in the mid-teens area. Specific to your question from a LEAP perspective, what we anticipate right now is a 20% to 25% increase in unit growth, I think we'll see installs get ahead of spares so that spares ratio will begin to moderate, more in line with the historic average of a typical lifecycle. So that's really where we are with respect to the narrowbody specifics you have there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from a line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Hey, guys, good morning. Still like the end of an era, yea, as I said feels like the end of an era way to go out on a good note. So my one question is for Scott. So Scott, I'm just trying to bridge the free cash flow comments 2023 to ‘24. Clearly you guys have some numbers out on the slides. But the 2023 numbers look like it’s not apples-to-apples, right? Like not burden for corporate, it looks like you're expecting a pretty meaningful pickup in 2024. So maybe just talk to us about the puts and takes and what's embedded in the low and the high end of the guide for ‘24.
Scott Strazik:
You bet, Joe. At the start, I mean, we're proud of the $600 million of free cash flow that we generated with Power and renewable segments in 2023. Now, as we get to an apples and apples basis, we need to back out from that reportable free cash flow $600 million are standalone and carveout costs of approximately $300 million in addition to pension and some variables we are working through with taxes that will all be clear in the Form 10 filing in the middle of February, jumping off of that starting point, we expect to see real EBITDA growth that will drive free cash flow, whether from low single digit EBITDA growth to the high end of the mid-single digit EBITDA range that we're talking about, in addition to working capital, continuing to be a source of cash that drives us up towards that $700 million to $1.1 billion, a positive free cash flow at turnover. Now, the real drivers of the variability in that range come down primarily to two things. One is Offshore wind execution, and how quickly we install the wind turbines in both the Atlantic and the North Sea, proud of the fact that we've got 14 megawatt wind turbines in both cases connected to the Grid today. And really, the EDF timing of the transaction closes on steam as the two largest variables for us on that $700 million to $1.1 billion guide. But with a lot of confidence that we go into ‘24 expecting to see substantial improvement off of 2023.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.
Ken Herbert:
Yes, hi, good morning. Maybe Larry for the 2024 mid-teens commercial services outlook, can you provide any more granularity on the implied assumptions, maybe for spare parts and price compared to other services. And then within that, maybe some comments on how much improvement in the LEAP turnaround times are embedded in the guide?
Larry Culp:
Ken, good morning, I think that what we're anticipating on the services side is, in effect, mid-single digit departure growth really being the foundation, we will see I think internal shop visits grow more rapidly, then we're likely to see spare parts, we're going to get pricing benefit, we're going to see work scope improvements. And that's really how you ladder up from that departures number to what we would expect to see in terms of mid-teens, services growth. Rahul?
Rahul Ghai:
Yes, just to, Ken, just to add a couple of dot points to that response. As Larry said, departures are up 6%. We are entering 2024 with some catch up to do on our shop visits. Given the supply chain challenges in 2023, we could not get as many shoppers as completed as we would have liked. So as we enter 2024, given the demand outlook, given the increase in traffic, we are expecting our shoppers, it's to be up kind of low double digits to mid-teens. And adding to what Larry said on scope and pricing that pushes our revenue from shop visits kind of towards the higher end of the teens. And then spares is growth kind of moderates. And the spares growth will be below that of the shop visit growth. But you combine all that you get to that mid-teen services growth that we just mentioned.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Hey, just a question maybe for Scott on the free cash flow again for Vernova. So I just want to try and understand. I think working capital is assumed as a source. So maybe help us understand kind of what the orders in take assumption is for Vernova this year, I think it was up 25%, the orders in 2023. So just trying to see how much sort of orders growth this year or what kind of working capital inflow from orders you're expecting. And on that free cash flow point separately. There must be some assumption for sort of interest expense and so forth within that cash guide. So just any framing around that please.
Rahul Ghai:
Julian, let me just kick it off. And let me start with the second part first and then I'll hand it to Scott on the orders. As you think about the free cash flow guide for Vernova, we will definitely provide more details as Form 10 comes out and then we have the Invested Days but just keep in mind, as we've previously discussed. Vast, vast majority of the GE debt will retain with GE Aerospace. So there's not a lot of interest impact on GE Vernova. So that's the way to think about the free cash flow for next year. More details to come on the capital structure. Scott, do you want to take the orders part?
Scott Strazik:
You bet, Rahul, thank you And, Julian, I think to your point to begin with, we had a big SunZia order with Onshore wind in the fourth quarter across Grid. There were a number of large HVDC orders with tenant and as an example, and you can expect in every year and any quarter specifically that we're going to see those types of transactions. So those we don't expect to see a repeat in ‘24 versus ‘23. But with Onshore wind, as an example, our largest renewables business, we see our customers actively investing and replenishing their project book right now. I mean, they really utilized all the projects they had prior to having clarity on the PTC. And we do think the orders profile in ‘24, much like the revenue and shipments profile will be more back end loaded than first half loaded and Onshore wind, but with very active individual projects, orders are going to be more flattish than up in Onshore. On Grid, the one point I'd make is, although we aren't going to expect as much in large HVDC orders to the extent we had with tenant in 2023. The reality is, even if you back out the HVDC orders in Grid, our second largest renewables business, our orders in Grid grew by over 20% in 2023. Power transformers as an example, a business we don't talk about as much grew orders by 40%. And we expect to continue to see that strength. So there may be less headline orders of the magnitude of SunZia or the tenant HVDC projects. But there's a lot of healthy demand across renewables that we expect to continue into 2024 that contributes towards our free cash generation continue to be greater than 100%. And that's significant free cash flow growth that we just talked about.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning, guys. Thank you. Hey, Larry, this one's for you. Maybe if you could just offer your perspective on the quality lapses we've seen across the industry? How does it change your approach in regards to ensuring the integrity of your own supply chains as the industry grapples with the LEAP challenges, obviously, but you also mentioned initial GE9X production in 2024? How does that flow into your assumptions on free cash flow for things like inventory build?
Larry Culp:
Sheila, there's a lot there. I think from a, let's take safety first. I'm strongly of the view that the industry not to speak for the industry. But having been close to this business for almost two years. Everybody understands the fallen responsibility we have the world over, I think from a GE Aerospace perspective is you and I've talked the operating framework, the lean transformation that's been underway here is very much rooted in an SQDC approach to safety, first and foremost, before quality before delivery before cost. And we not only talk that way, we work hard to make sure we operate that way day in and day out. Fortunately, at GE Aerospace, we have a long history of being hyper focused on safety. If you go back, for example, to I think 2013, our safety management system was really the first of its kind, we were the first OEM to implement such a scheme well before the FA required the industry to do so. And we have been building on that. But that approach never assumes perfection, right? So we layer in all sorts of checks and audits, process capabilities to make sure that we're doing all that we possibly can to deliver safety, to deliver quality over time. And that applies in the commercial realm and applies on the defense side ,legacy, platforms, new platforms like LEAP, and 9X. And I'd also say that when we talk about our leadership behaviors of humility and transparency and focus, that really helps undergird all of that work, because if we have an opportunity to improve if we miss something, we want folks to come forward, share that with us. So we get after it get to the root cause and lay in corrective action. So that's really the general approach from 9X perspective. We do know that will be a pressure on us in 2024. We're assuming EIS May of 25 will begin to ship engines in the back half of ‘24. It's really the beginning of the lifecycle for that platform. We're thrilled to be underwing on the 777X. It's an exciting platform. But it will be a financial headwind for us for the foreseeable future as we ramp not only the volumes, but obviously improve the overall cost structure of that business with an eye toward building the installed base and the service annuities that will come over time.
Rahul Ghai:
Sheila just to add to that, on the free cash flow, part of your question ,we've, 9X has been a headwind on free cash flow, even in 2023, as we started bringing in inventory to start shipping this year, as Larry said, towards the back half of this year, so it will continue to impact our free cash flow negatively, to some extent, but it's not a material driver overall, as you've seen greater than $5 billion of free cash flow for 2024, including absorption of the corporate pension and the interest expense. So that you saw, so still feel pretty good about the free cash flow for 2024. And the 9X is not a material driver of the free cash flow for the year.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Good morning. Just one last time for me for GE but yes, question for Rahul. Maybe, just if you gave us an overview for the company into the first quarter, but maybe just detail by business, for GE into the first quarter a little bit more color. Thanks.
Rahul Ghai:
Sure, Andrew. So if you look at the first quarter guide, Aerospace is going to start the year strong revenue up mid-teens with the commercial growth rates in the first quarter kind of in line with what we are projecting for full year. And the margins on a business as usual kind of pre all the standalone expenses, we do expect margins to be flat to slightly up for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis for Aerospace. For Renewables, as Scott said there will be profit improvement during the year. But that improvement will be more backend loaded. As we start converting the higher margin Onshore wind orders that Scott referenced in his prepared remarks. We start shipping those orders that we got in ‘23 into the second half of 2024. So there's a bit of lag between order to revenue conversion. And so the renewable improvement will be more backend loaded, the first quarter for renewables will look a lot like the fourth quarter for renewables. So think about roughly in the same zone. And for Power, typical seasonality with low single digit growth, some margin expansion year-over-year in the first quarter. But just one other point I want to make on the first quarter is that given the both Vernova and Aerospace themes are fully staffed up to become standalone public companies, and we are operating with a very, very small corporate staff. And the historic corporate expense will now be fully absorbed in the two businesses, and the corporate expense in first quarter will be effectively zero. So majority of that expense going to Aerospace and the balance to Vernova. But the way to think about first quarter margins for both companies is just as we think to after absorption of incremental cost. And just given in line with the reported margin guidance that we provided for full year. So that's the way to think about the first quarter margins.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.
Seth Seifman:
Hey, thanks very much, and good morning. I don't want to kind of, you've just given us the 2024 guidance. So I apologize for jumping ahead here. But when we think about the margin cadence in Aerospace, apples to apples kind of flattish as we go from ‘23 to ‘24. When you think about going to kind of the 20 percentage that you talked about, for ‘25. How do we think about the key drivers as we bridge that?
Rahul Ghai:
Yes, sure, Seth. So, listen, let's start with a really strong ‘23. Right, $01.3 billion of growth, 90 basis points with margin expansion, and better than what we said back in March, right. And we were expecting $5.5 billion of profit flat margins year-over-year. So the 2023 is shaped up a lot better than what we initially expected back in March. As you look forward to ‘24, I know you kind of skipped over that here. But double digit profit growth in 2024 with the OE ramp 9X introduction, kind of pressuring the margin rate. But it is exactly the step that we had thought in our minds and how 2024 would look, when we were sitting back in March, right. And we had said, 24 will be a step along the way to ‘25. Now, as we get to ‘25, the biggest driver to profit growth between ‘24 to ‘25, will be the benefit from top line improvement. And that is in line with what we've previously said pricing that offsets inflation and productivity. But mix will continue to be an issue in LEAP OE volume ramps, LEAP services ramps, and even though LEAP services become profitable in ‘24, it's still a margin headwind, and then 9X volume ramps in ‘25, as well. So if you think about ‘25, recall, we had said $7.5 billion - $7.6 billion to $8 billion of profit on the current GE reporting, which translates to roughly about 20% margins, and layering in about $0.5 billion of standalone public company expenses, EH&S costs all the other things, we're thinking $7.1 billion to $7.6 billion of profit for 2025, which is in line with what we said back in March, just adjusted for the incremental expenses. And we'll come back to that and talk more in March.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi Group.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning, everyone. Scott, maybe in terms of your 2024 margin expectations for Vernova, could you give us a little more color on the components? I think you mentioned Onshore can reach high single digit margins with the second half ramp up which would I think be meaningfully better performance than your initial expectations you set for the business in ’24 last year, so does that assume you get through most of your product reliability issues and as price versus cost just been a bigger driver than you would have thought?
Scott Strazik:
Andy, you bet. I mean, if we go back to our original guide in ‘24 going back to March, I mean, we're largely in line with the expectations there. But if we take a step back, Gas Power stronger than our expectations in March. Onshore Wind and Grid are both stronger. And to your point, we talked today about Onshore wind being high single digit margins in ‘24 and Grid being mid-single digit margins. Now, Gas has already gotten to low double digit margins, and will continue to accrete, but Offshore is tougher than where we were in March. And that's challenging a little bit of that strength in our three largest businesses with Gas, Grid and Onshore representing about 80% of our revenue today. But also taking into account that tough Offshore backlog, we've got two more years to execute through that. So when you think about our three largest businesses continuing to be stronger than where we were, while we really reduce our Offshore backlog from $6 billion to approximately $4 billion and approximately two years to go. We see a clear pathway in ‘24 to accrete margin. But also then to continue to accrete our margin beyond as we liquidate the rest of the top economics with Offshore in ‘25. And then find the oxygen to really share with you some of our smaller businesses we don't talk about as much. But you heard Rahul mentioned earlier, the fact that our digital business returned to profitability. And we're really excited about some of those areas like Grid software, that we'll share more with you when we get to March 6. So those really are the key dynamics of ‘23 to ‘24. And looking a little bit further out than even that.
Steve Winoker:
Liz, we have time for one last question.
Operator:
This question will come from the line of Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.
Scott Deuschle:
Hey, good morning. Rahul, you touched on it a bit and your answer to Seth’s question, but can you give a bit more detail on the flat margin supply for GE Aerospace in 24? And then for Larry, I was hoping to give an update on your capital allocation priorities for ‘24, including how share purchases fit and relative to debt pay down. Thank you.
Rahul Ghai:
Yes, sure, Scott. So as you look forward to 2024, I think it's going to be another strong year, right? We've guided to $6.5 billion, $6.6 billion to $7.1 billion of profit on a current basis. And then $6 billion to $6.5 billion on a standalone basis. This is often including EH&S, all the public company expenses, including what $100 million to support the wind down of GE corporate office, which will now be with us kind of two second quarter. So this implies about a $750 million of profit growth low double digit at the midpoint of that growth. Margins, we do expect that those margins to be flat about two points of margin pressure that we are expecting more than half a point of that is coming from LEAP OE ramp, introduction of 9X engines and the strong LEAP services growth. And as I said, to set earlier, even though LEAP services are turning profitable, just as we would have expected, it is still negatively impacting the margins. And the rest of that two point headwinds coming from incremental R&D to support improving further improvement in LEAP durability, introduction of 9X and then develop the next generation of products for the future of flight. This margin pressure is completely offset with benefit from volume, productivity due to strong services growth that we're expecting. So overall, again, it's a step that is in line with our expectations that we had laid out for the medium term outlook in March of 2’3. Larry?
Larry Culp:
Scott, I don't know if you ask that relative to my GE role or my Aerospace role, I suspect the latter but just with the GE hat on for a moment, there really no change at this point, we really want to make sure we see through the spin, as I think both Rahul and Scott talked at the outset, could be very good about for Vernova’s prospects here to be investment grade, confident in that outlook. And we want to see that through setup both businesses, we will in early March in New York share more at each of the investor Days as to how we're thinking about the capital structures, but the capital allocation strategies for both businesses. I think in aerospace, that you should assume that we're going to have a compelling dividend. That buybacks are going to be an important part of that overall effort beyond just covering dilution. And we'll certainly look to do meaningful value accretive M&A, the mix, the timing, those details to come. I really want the GE Aerospace board to have more time with those important questions. But we're looking forward to moving beyond deleveraging playing more offense at Aerospace. And I think well Scott's got a different hand to play. They're going to look to continue to certainly invest in organically in the opportunities that they have around the energy transition.
Steve Winoker:
Liz, before we wrap, I want to remind folks that GE Aerospace will report GE's first quarter results in late April with GE Vernova holding a separate call, as result like we did with GE Healthcare, we will focus our comments in late April on Aerospace leaving GE Vernova commentary to Scott and his team. Larry, any final comments?
A - Larry Culp:
Steve, thanks. Just to close the call. Again, the team's delivered in 2023, both Aerospace and Vernova. We're really looking forward to what's ahead for both companies as independent entities. Before that day in early April, we hope to see many of you at the Investor Days in March. We appreciate your time today. Your investment and support of GE.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to General Electric Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Liz and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE's third quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai. Some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our Web site, those elements may change as the world changes. Over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you and good morning, everyone. Before we start, I want to reiterate that the GE team stands firmly with our employees, customers, and all those impacted by the brutal Hamas attacks on Israel in the subsequent war. Our priority has been the safety of GE employees in the region. We're doing everything possible to support them and their families. Last week, GE announced $0.5 million contribution to help with the humanitarian efforts for the many people in Israel, Gaza and the surrounding areas impacted by these horrific events. Terrorism has no place in our society. And like so many, I'm devastated by the loss of lives, violence and suffering of innocent people. Turning to the quarter, GE delivered a very strong performance and we're raising full year guidance again. GE Aerospace continues to experience rapid growth, driven by robust demand and solid execution largely in commercial engines and services, another significant quarter for the team. Our fleet of 41,000 commercial engines and 26,000 rotorcraft and combat engines continues to expand as we work to define the future of flight. Today, we're navigating a still challenging supply chain environment to deliver for and support our customers. Year-to-date, commercial engine deliveries are up 30%. Across GE and Safran’s MRO shops this quarter, we've approved LEAP quick turn shop visits over 30% year-over-year and sequentially. Tomorrow we're building our backlog and sales pipeline during unprecedented industry growth. Recently, Air Canada ordered 36 GEnx-1B engines plus four spares building on GEnx’s rich history as the fastest selling high thrust engine with over 50 million flight hours. For the future, we're investing in R&D and developing next generation technologies. For example, we're advancing full system testing for our hybrid electric systems at our electric power center in Ohio. We're also collaborating with industry partners in NASA on an eco demonstrator program to measure sustainable aviation fuel impact on the environment, particularly high-altitude emissions. And our growth opportunities extend beyond commercial. In defense, we're pleased the U.S. Army has accepted the first two T901 flight test engines for the future attack reconnaissance aircraft prototypes. The T901 will also upgrade the U.S. Army's Apache and Blackhawk helicopters, providing 50% more power, reduce lifecycle costs and lower fuel consumption. And we've been selected for development work on the cockpit voice and flight data recorder systems for the future Long-Range Assault Aircraft program. Next generation programs like these demonstrate how GE’s rotorcraft programs enable the military and our allies to take on more challenging missions today and in the future. And we're pleased to see Congress recognizing this important work by including funding for advanced engine development like the XA 100 in both the House and Senate fiscal year '24 defense appropriation bills. However, even with these strong results, we're far from satisfied. Through our lean transformation, we're making real progress, improving flow and eliminating waste. For example, our team in Pune, India has increased output of LEAP high pressure turbine manifolds by 3x. But we need to do more, as do our suppliers, given the pace of demand for both aftermarket services and new engine deliveries. There are pockets of improvement now, material input increased double digit sequentially supporting spare parts delivery, which was up significantly year-over-year. We're working within our own plants and in partnership with our suppliers to deliver sequential improvements and output and turnaround times day-by-day, week-by-week. Over to GE Vernova where performance is strengthening pre-spin at both renewable energy and power. Customers continue to invest in the energy transition, driving meaningful demand for our products and services. Grid and now Onshore Wind were both profitable this quarter and we expect improved performance from here. Grid customers are increasing their infrastructure investments globally to connect renewables and improve reliability. Year-to-date, orders remain strong and more than 3x revenue and with higher margins, which will support profitable growth through the decade. We've also increased selectivity, streamline cost and rationalized our industrial footprint, tracking towards full year profitability at grid. I really liked the way the grid team is using lean to drive this turnaround and to deliver profitable growth. For example, across power transmissions, 14 sites globally, we've reduced lead time by roughly 15% year-to-date, and we're targeting a 20% reduction by year end. Now with onshore. Our strategy to focus on fewer markets, pivoting more toward North America, where GE Vernova is the market leader is working. And we're relying more on our workhorse products, now representing 70% of equipment volume this quarter. These shifts are translating to 700 basis points of higher margins in backlog this year. We’re still driving cost out, fewer layers, reducing headcount and empowering leaders closest to the operators. Finally, we're improving fleet reliability. We're now halfway through our enhancement program in the field and expect to be roughly 60% complete by year end. As expected, Offshore Wind remains difficult this year, with losses of roughly $1 billion in 2023. Next year we expect offshore will have similar losses, but substantially improved cash performance. So it's a tough $6 billion backlog that we're working our way through, which we expect to largely complete over the next two or three years. Meanwhile, we're making operational progress with rising availability on the 800 installed megawatts of our 6 megawatt platform. Electricity is now being produced at Dogger Bank, and we recently had the installation of our first Haliade-X turbans at Vineyard Wind. Looking forward, we've expanded Vic Abate’s role to CEO of the entire wind business to leverage our progress in onshore and offshore. We're taking a similarly disciplined approach to writing new business, like we've done over at gas, onshore and grid, with increased rigor on pricing terms, geographic exposure, and other risks. All-in-all, given powers continued strength, and with our two largest businesses in renewables grid and now onshore delivering, plus our plan for offshore, we're highly confident and successfully spinning off GE Vernova early in the second quarter. Across GE, I'm pleased with how we're operating as a simpler, more focused business at both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Another strong quarter, but plenty more to do. My thanks go out to the team for their dedication and commitment to serving our customers. It's been nearly two years since we announced our intention to create three independent investment grade industry leaders. And now we're closing in on the final step. Today, we announced plans to spin off GE Vernova and launch GE Aerospace in the beginning of the second quarter of 2024. Both will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange with GE Vernova as GEV and GE Aerospace carrying forward under GE. We made some important hires and promotions to ensure we have the best teams leading these businesses forward. At GE Aerospace, we've completed the functional leadership team, naming our heads of corporate affairs, human resources, legal and treasury with experienced leaders from inside and outside GE. At GE Vernova, we added seasoned public company CFO, Ken Parks. As I mentioned a moment ago, Vic Abate is now CEO of the wind business. We've also further simplified and strengthened our balance sheet by redeeming the remainder of our preferred equity and selling a portion of our AerCap shares for $2.7 billion of proceeds. Our balance sheet is well positioned to support the launch of two investment grade companies. And we're approaching some key spin milestones. GE Vernova will file a confidential Form 10 shortly, with the initial public filing expected in the first quarter. Soon we'll announce each company's Board of Directors in an early March GE Vernova and GE Aerospace plan to hold investor days. Building on our success, GE Healthcare, we're exactly where we want to be at the end of October for both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Now over to Rahul for more detail on our results.
Rahul Ghai:
Thank you, Larry. Turning to Slide 4, I'll speak to the quarter on an organic basis. Overall, we delivered meaningful growth across our headline metrics. Orders were up double digits, with services up 15% driven by commercial aerospace and equipment up 22% with growth in all segments. Revenue increased 18% benefiting from strong market demand, improved execution and pricing. Aerospace was led by commercial services and engines. Renewables was led by grid and offshore and power from heavy duty gas turbines and aero derivatives. All segments contributed to adjusted margin expansion of 760 basis points. This included the absence of last year's wind-related charges and the benefits of volume, price, net of inflation and productivity and continued investments in growth. Adjusted EPS was $0.82, up almost $1.00 year-over-year. Excluding last year's wind-related charges, adjusted margin still expanded 400 basis points and EPS was up $0.59, or more than triple what we delivered last year. We generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow, up roughly $1 billion largely driven by earnings. Working capital was a positive $400 million flow, driven by disciplined receivables management while inventory remained inflated due to continued supply chain challenges. Year-to-date, free cash flow was $2.2 billion, up $2.5 billion, reflecting higher earnings, reduced working capital and improved linearity. Switching to corporate. Results improved significantly due to energy financial services gain on sale from investments and higher interest income. Also, as we prepare to reduce costs, as we prepare to become standalone businesses, for the year, we now expect expenses in the $500 million range. At insurance, we completed our annual review of liability cash flow assumptions under the new accounting standard. This resulted in an immaterial adjustment to earnings indicating claims experience is consistent with our models. Given GE Aerospace’s strength and GE Vernova’s improvement, we are raising full year guidance and now expecting revenue growth of low teens, up from low double digits, adjusted EPS of $2.55 to $2.65, up $0.40 at the midpoint, largely from improvement in operating profit that we now expect to be in a range of $5.2 billion to $5.5 billion and free cash flow of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion, up $550 million at the midpoint largely from higher earnings and lower AD&A outflow. Now spending a moment on each business, starting with GE Aerospace, demand remains robust with GE and CFM departures growing mid teens year-over-year. Orders were up 34% with strong growth in both equipment and services. Revenue was up 25%, led by commercial engines and services up 29% and defense growing 8%. Profit grew over $400 million or more than 30%. Notably, margins expanded 120 basis points to reach 20.4%. Higher services, volume and pricing net of inflation more than offset investments and adverse mix. In our commercial business, services strength continued to drive profit with services revenue up 31% from volume, pricing and heavy work scopes. External spare parts were up more than 35% and internal shop visits grew 2% with supply chain constraints impacting growth. Commercial engines revenue grew 23% with LEAP deliveries up 12% year-over-year. We are now planning for a 40% to 45% increase in LEAP deliveries this year, down from our 50% target at the beginning of the year. We now expect OE revenue to grow low to mid 20s and services revenue to be up mid to high 20s for the year. In defense, book-to-bill remains strong this quarter, again, greater than 1 and 1.3x year-to-date, highlighting the strong demand environment and quality of our franchisees. Revenue grew high single digits with strength in services and Edison works offsetting lower unit deliveries. Based on GE Aerospace's year-to-date strength, we are raising revenue growth to the low 20s and profit to be about $6 billion, up roughly $1.2 billion year-over-year, with free cash flow growth trending better than prior expectations. Moving to GE Vernova. Lean, along with better underwriting, selectivity, and productivity, is delivering stronger results we mentioned earlier at grid and, now, onshore. At renewables, orders grew again, up 3% this quarter and up more than 80% year-to-date to nearly $18 billion. Grid orders increased over 50% this quarter. And while primarily in equipment business today, we are starting to grow grid services that was up double digits this quarter. In onshore, North American equipment orders for the quarter were up nearly 40% and, year-to-date, are up more than 2.5x over prior year. The IRA continues to be transformative, establishing multiyear U.S. demand visibility for future growth. Internationally, onshore orders were down meaningfully, but at better margins consistent with our strategy of greater selectivity. Revenue grew 14%. Grid increased with double-digit growth at each business. At onshore, North American equipment growth was more than offset by lower repower and international equipment. At offshore, revenue more than tripled year-over-year and grew sequentially with higher nacelle output. Profit improved from our turnaround efforts. Excluding last year's elevated reserve, renewables margin still expanded roughly 600 basis points, driven by continued price and productivity. Onshore and grid margins expanded due to price and productivity, and grid margins also benefited from additional volume. For the year, renewables now expects low double-digit revenue growth. We are maintaining the guidance for significantly better year-over-year profit with onshore and grid improvement more than offsetting the offshore pressure. Turning to power. We delivered solid year-over-year revenue growth and margin expansion with seasonally lower outages. Equipment orders grew slightly as higher heavy-duty gas turbines more than offset lower aeroderivative units. Services declined slightly as high single-digit growth in gas transactional services was offset by aeroderivative and steam services. For the year, we still expect total services orders to grow low single digits. Revenue grew 9%, largely on price and higher scope on heavy-duty gas turbine and aeroderivative equipment. Services grew again, up low single digits. Profit grew roughly 60% with 200 basis points of margin expansion, driven by higher volume, pricing, and productivity, which more than offset inflation pressure. Year-to-date, power orders have grown low single digits, revenue mid-single digits and margins have expanded over 100 basis points. This was led by services, including higher gas utilization, up low single digits, benefiting from a continued coal to gas switching. We also shipped nine HA units this year and now have more than 47 gigawatts of installed capacity, continuing to extend our HA services billings to $1 billion by mid 2020s. In the fourth quarter, power is well positioned for sequential profit growth from seasonally higher services volume. For the year, power continues to expect low single-digit revenue growth with better year-over-year profit. Taken together, for GE Vernova, we are now expecting high single-digit revenue growth and profit improvement of over $800 million year-over-year at the midpoint. We are raising the low end of our profit guidance driven by both renewables and power and now expect negative $300 million to negative $100 million of operating profit, as we continue to expect flat to slightly improved free cash flow. Overall, we are really encouraged proving with grid and onshore that we can deliver better results. This, combined with power's continued strong performance, will drive meaningful profit and cash flow improvement at GE Vernova next year. And with that, let me turn it back to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Rahul, thank you. To summarize, GE Aerospace grew rapidly again, and GE Vernova renewables improved sequentially, and power continued to perform well. Overall, a very strong quarter for GE, one that gives us confidence and thus allows us to raise our full year guide. More importantly, we're poised to launch two innovative global service-focused industry leaders in less than six months. I'm proud of our team and even more excited for what lies ahead. Steve, let's go to Q&A.
Steven Winoker:
Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. Liz, please open the line.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.
Scott Deuschle:
Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Scott Deuschle:
Rahul, is the lower LEAP delivery guide a function of softer narrow-body deliveries at the airframers or is this more related to challenges to your own production ramp-up? And then how should we think about the impact to 2024? Thank you.
Rahul Ghai:
Let me start and Larry, I'm sure can add here. It's primarily a function of our own supply chain challenges that we are having internally. As we look at our supply chain environment, while we are working extremely hard, we are seeing an improvement in total material inflow. The supplier delinquencies still remain high. Actually, we're up sequentially about 25% from 2Q to 3Q. So that is impacting our output on the other end. And for next year, we're still expecting 40% to 45% improvement in LEAP deliveries from where we end this year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Just one question. Hi, guys. So I think Larry, you mentioned offshore losses of about 1 billion this year. I think you mentioned similar next year. Is there still a pathway to breakeven to profit for Vernova -- sorry, for renewables next year?
Larry Culp:
I would say, Nigel, that we're really pleased overall with renewables. Again, with onshore turning profitable in the quarter, with grid now profitable two quarters in a row with the prospect of being profitable, I think for the full year, that's really I think sets us up very well. But offshore will be difficult. That's what's behind those underlying numbers for this year and for next. I do think we're making the operational progress that we talked about, both the 6 megawatts and the new projects with Dogger Bank and with Vineyard. But it is a problematic financial profile. We'll work our way through the $6 billion backlog over the next couple of years as we indicated. I think with the progress and the momentum we've got in grid and with onshore, with power as well, we've got -- we should deliver sequential improvement in profitability from here. But offshore will be difficult. I think what we're encouraged by though is that the application of what we've done in the other businesses around selectivity is really relevant here. We know the industry is ready for a reset. You've seen that in the comments from a number of folks in New York State over the last couple of weeks as well. So we think we can make a much better business with offshore wind, but we're staring at some challenges that we need to address here in the fourth quarter and in '24 for sure.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.
Seth Seifman:
Good morning, everyone.
Rahul Ghai:
Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Seth Seifman:
So I wonder maybe, Rahul, if you could talk about the aftermarket expectations. You said mid to high 20s this year. Maybe kind of how that's changed or if it's changed between internal shop visits and spares and then kind of how we interpret the big sequential growth in spares during the quarter? Was that -- is that a new sustainable level? Is that -- was that driven by pre-buy ahead of a price increase? Is it mostly -- is it driven by the price increase itself? Maybe just to level set expectations on aftermarket.
Rahul Ghai:
Yes. So let's start with the second part of the question first, Seth, and we'll go back to where you started. So on the spare part revenue, spare part revenue was up about 35% or more than 35% this quarter. I would say three main things; volume, pricing, and increased work scope. Volume growth continues from mid teens departures in the quarter and then stronger departure growth in the first half, which leads to volume in the third quarter. And also keep in mind that it's less of a challenge to kind of ship spare parts versus completing a shop visit or an engine, so that also helps with shipping spare parts when the volume is strong. The second part I would say going back to pricing, we implemented a high single digit price increase this quarter. Now we had pulled forward the price increase from the fourth quarter to the third quarter, so we got a couple of months of incremental price in the quarter. And then combine that with what Larry has been pushing for the last 12 to 18 months is just very, very strong pricing discipline. So it's not just about implementing a price increase, it's also about managing the implementation of that price increase. So I think we're doing a better job of that. The last thing I would say is the work scopes have been heavier, both on the narrow-bodies and on the wide-bodies. So wide-bodies, they're coming back to kind of second shop visits. Narrow-bodies is primarily a phenomena of customers kind of trying to constrain spending in challenging times, especially in China last year. So now as they are a little bit more cash with departures growing, they are -- the work scopes are increasing. So I would say those are the three main levers of higher spare parts growth in the quarter, which was more than 35%. I would not attribute any of that to pre-CLP buy. Now as you look forward to the first part of your question between spare parts growth and shop visits, spare parts I would say are strong. We expect a mid-20s growth in the fourth quarter which will be in line with where the departures are. Shop visits I think for the year, we're in that kind of low teens to mid teens category. I think that's what we are thinking right now given how challenging supply chain has been and shop visits were up a couple of points in the third quarter. So we think for the year, we're kind of in the low teens to mid teens range.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Maybe just my question around renewables and sort of fully understand the offshore backlog, but maybe just wanted to focus on a couple of other things. One was are you seeing any shift in the kind of new orders on new equipment orders picture in renewables just because it seems a tougher environment for project development and financing in general across different industries, just wondered if your perspective on that had changed for the coming quarters. And sort of allied to that, because of the working capital dynamics of renewables with customer advances and so on, any thoughts around sort of what level of cash balance Vernova should have upon spin and sort of any mix of GE versus external financing for that or funding for that cash balance?
Larry Culp:
Sure. Well, to start with, I think what we have seen through the course of the year, again, particularly with onshore and grid is just incredibly healthy demand despite the rate environment. Obviously, the incentives here, the incentives in Europe, the push with respect to the energy transition at large really has kept us very busy. So no change really whatsoever with respect to our commentary in that regard. I think as we look into the fourth quarter, as we look into '24, any one project can move for various reasons. But I think we continue to be quite optimistic about the underlying demand that we see in those businesses. We know offshore has its own dynamics again to the reset comment I made a moment ago. But by and large, I think we're feeling very good about the demand environment.
Rahul Ghai:
And just to add to that, Julian, not only is the demand environment good, but as Larry kind of mentioned in his prepared remarks, we are seeing better pricing and the selectivity to strategy that Scott, Larry, Vic, or everybody has been pushing come through. Our grid backlog margins were up about three points and onshore backlog margins were up about seven points in the quarter. So that should obviously help through the turnaround efforts in 2024. So strong demand environment, good pricing on the renewables orders. Now switching to your second question on the cash balance, first and foremost, we do expect both Vernova and Aerospace to be investment grade at spin, right? So that's kind of priority number one. And as we announced back in September that we do expect that Vernova will spin in a net cash position. So we're working through our framework on exactly what that number looks like. Obviously, what we want to do is we want to make sure that both companies have enough operating cash at the time of spin. In addition, what will also happen is as you probably noticed in our 10-Q, we have about $2 billion of restricted cash. And most of that is with Vernova right now as we think about where that cash balance is. So as we think about the cash balance at spin, it will be the restricted cash for both businesses plus the operating needs of that business. And there's enough cash on the balance sheet at GE to make sure that this happens, and we definitely don't need to tap into any external markets to make sure that both companies have enough cash at spin. And we'll give you an update as we get closer to spin.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you. Good morning, Larry and Rahul.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
And Steve. Maybe if I could ask about aerospace margins. Same as last quarter, very good, 19.4 year-to-date, above 20% in the quarter, just help lift the guide up, which still implies a sequential step down in Q4. So the OE mix headwind with the 450 bps in the fourth quarter to hit the 1,650 is I guess a lot of it. Do you still expect 250 basis points of OE headwind this year? How does that filter into '24 and the breakeven by '26? Thank you.
Rahul Ghai:
Okay. It's a multipart question, Sheila. I'm going to try to remember everything. If I forget, just please jump in here. So you're right. I think we had a good quarter, 25% revenue growth, 400 million profit growth, 120 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter continue to give us confidence to raise the year. So what we did in the quarter as you saw in the guide, we raised the guide for the year by about $500 million of revenue and slightly more than $250 million of profit. So about a 50% drop through for the incremental revenue. Obviously now part of that is the higher services revenue, lower OE revenue that you referenced. So as you kind of think about now what the fourth quarter looks like as you go from third quarter to the fourth quarter, there is about $200 million of incremental OE revenue. And even though services revenue is still strong kind of mid teens, it is a lower sequential growth just given the timing of the spare part shipments. So that's impacting the quarterly margin dynamic to a little bit. But having said all that, we're still expecting kind of low 20% revenue growth in the year for GE Aerospace, about 1.2 billion to 1.3 billion of profit, close to a point of margin expansion as we end the year. So it will be a really, really good year. Now as you pointed out, LEAP deliveries are a little bit lighter than we had initially expected. Still a pretty substantial ramp in the fourth quarter we're expecting. Based on the revised guidance that we just provided, we expect about a 15% growth from 3Q to 4Q and a pretty big ramp year-over-year. Now some of the LEAP deliveries have pushed out into '24 and '25. So as we think about the outer year margins, we had guided to about a point of margin headwind from LEAP between '23 to '25. So now that will just be marginally higher, just movement of LEAP engine shipments from '23 to '24. I don't know if I covered all the questions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray:
I was hoping if we could get some comments on the upside in free cash flow this quarter and the progress that you're making in having free cash flow more linear through the year? It looks like that's working. And any comments on the dynamics we should expect for free cash flow in the fourth quarter. Any puts or takes?
Larry Culp:
Deane, thanks for noticing, right, to be up $1 billion in the quarter year-over-year; to be at, what, 2.2 here year-to-date, this was the time of the year in years past where we were kind of holding our breath waiting for all the cash flow in the year to come in, in the fourth quarter. I think what you see again is a much more linear approach to running the business coupled with obviously steady demand through the course of the year, both at Aero and across Vernova. So much of what we've tried to do in moving away operationally from the year end dynamics, let alone the quarter end dynamics, I think has borne some fruit. But we are far from I'll say a perfectly level loaded business at both Aerospace and Vernova. But we know as we continue to make progress, there will not only be the positive cash effects that you're pointing at. But frankly, there's a lot of cost we think we can pull out over time as well as we drive greater linearity and have less month end, quarter end, year-end sprints, which we know we can do, but we rarely do efficiently.
Steven Winoker:
And for the fourth quarter, just on that number question, just take the 4.7 to 5.1 midpoint, subtract our year-to-date number that Larry mentioned, Deane, you end with a few billion.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning, guys.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Andy.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Larry, could you give us more color on how you're thinking about the defense business at this point? It was up high single digits in the quarter. It does seem like you're having a better year this year. Have you turned the corner toward better operating performance in that business? Could you talk about the budgeting environment for that business moving forward?
Larry Culp:
Well, Andy, I would say that we have made some progress, but we are far from satisfied. You clearly saw the high single digit growth in the quarter and now year-to-date. I think we'll be in that zone for the year. But the supply chain challenges that we've talked about, which has made some of our equipment shipments somewhat lumpy, both with respect to our internal process yields and our material availability from our suppliers, is still job one in this business, right? I think if you look at what we've done inside of our own shops, we're really encouraged by the process improvements that we've been able to lay in. If you look at some of the delays that are a function of quality internally in the third quarter, we were at our lowest level in the last two years. Still plenty to do, but that's a lot of progress. We're adding capacity, not only in production, but in our test cells, particularly up the road here in Lynn. And we have put even more people into the field with the supply base. Rahul mentioned earlier some of the delays that we have seen in terms of on-time performance by our suppliers. And that covers an array of commodities, be it just general raw materials, castings, forgings, valves, and the like, there's a lot of work to do to create that flow that Deane and I were talking about a moment ago. I think in terms of the top line environment, again, really encouraged by the progress that we're seeing with FARA. I think we are heartened by what the Congress is poised to do with respect to continuing to support the XA100. And we know as we look forward, just given the dynamics in the world, there's going to be plenty of opportunity for us, both on rotorcraft and in combat, to continue to grow this business. And it's a business we don't talk a lot about. It may be a bit overshadowed by commercial. But that's not the way we're operating today. And I think as we get ready for the Vernova spin, there'll be more time and attention paid externally on defense, and I think the team is very much looking forward to that. We're doing a lot of good work, plenty of opportunities, but we need to execute better. And again, we need our suppliers hand in hand in that effort.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Good morning. Could we just talk a little bit more about cash flow and kind of what you're thinking into next year? The spear to my question, Larry or Rahul, is we're still dealing with kind of a sizable difference between actual free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow. I think some of this is warranty and other things working through the system. Can you just elaborate a little bit on the factors in the disconnect and can we get to maybe a normalization of these factors as we think about the independent companies in 2024?
Rahul Ghai:
Yes. Let me kind of -- let's just spend maybe a minute on our free cash flow here. So first, as you look at our cash for the year, it's a really good year. We're going to generate $4.9-ish billion of free cash at the midpoint, up from $3.1 billion that we did last year. And a lot of that is coming from earnings growth. Clearly, that is a huge contributor and that is helped by kind of lower interest payments. But if you look at our working capital performance continues to be really strong this year. You've seen our year-to-date numbers. You've seen -- even as you project that into the fourth quarter. We are doing an exceptional job managing our days sales outstanding. So despite our top line revenue growth, we are still expecting that overall our AR balance will be neutral, Jeff. And the reason I say that is just kind of shows the opportunities that the business has for continued improvement. And then progress payments, contract assets continues to be a positive as well given the strong growth environment. The part I want to anchor on is a little bit on ground inventory. Given the supply chain challenges that we are having, inventory, as you will see from our Q, was up substantially in the quarter. Now we're expecting it to come down slightly as we get into the fourth quarter, but it will still be a substantial inventory build by the end of the year. And as we look forward into '24 and '25, that should start getting liquidated with improved supply chain performance. So that is where -- I would say that is what gives us the confidence that this will be a continued good cash flow story. Now as you look overall, we'll be at about 160%-plus of free cash flow to net income. Part of that is amortization. But even if you take amortization out, it's still 130% free cash flow performance. So it's still very, very strong. Now on your question between -- I think most of that adjustments below the line are related to spin-related adjustments. I don't think there's anything -- and insurance and spin-related restructuring costs and expenses. And some of that will obviously continue as we go into '24 and maybe even a little bit into '25. But after that, at least a spin and the restructuring cost should add. And the insurance is not a big number.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Hi. I didn't hear. I assume it's me. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
Okay. So just a question on onshore wind capacity. How close are you to the maximum capacity in onshore wind? I think in the past, we've shipped over 1,000 turbines in the quarter, but there have been capacity reductions. Just trying to understand how close you are to maximum throughput at this point.
Larry Culp:
With respect to onshore, Andrew?
Andrew Obin:
Yes.
Larry Culp:
I would say that when you look at the backlog that we have and with what's in the sales pipeline, I wouldn't say that we are sold out, but there is a limit to what we're going to be able to deliver in '24 and '25. And I think our customers are mindful of that. It's a little bit why we have seen, I think, the level of activity thus far this year with an eye to not only deliveries this year, but '24 and '25. I'm always hesitant, Andrew, to talk about capacity, particularly in a business like this as truly being fixed because there's so much underlying process improvement that can unleash capacity. It's not strictly a function of, if you will, fixed capital investments that we've made. Not that we would be averse to that, but I think we wanted to really pare down the overall cost structure, not strictly an effort focused on manufacturing capacity and really put ourselves in position to grow off a lower cost base, do that in ways that will allow delivery to be an advantage and then gradually, smartly add any fixed capital that we might need. If you look at the underlying performance that the onshore wind team has delivered here in the third quarter, will deliver in the fourth quarter, I think it's poised to deliver in '24 and beyond, you see all that coming home, which we're pleased to see, of course.
Steven Winoker:
Let's try to get a couple more in, Liz, if we can squeeze in.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Larry Culp:
Hi, Joe.
Joseph Ritchie:
Sorry for the multipart question, but I guess just on the timing of the spin, early 2Q or the beginning of 2Q, so is it right to expect it ahead of 1Q earnings? And then secondly, on the profitability dynamics in both onshore and offshore wind, I'd love to hear any more details around the type of profitability you expect to exit on onshore wind this year. And then also with offshore, it seems like you're shipping more this year, and so that seems to be a good sign that you're getting through more of your unprofitable backlog. Any comments around that would be helpful as well.
Larry Culp:
Sure. I think to your first question, Joe, the answer is pretty simple. Yes, we should be in a position to bring forward Vernova ahead of our typical earnings announcement timeframe early in the second quarter. I would say with respect to onshore wind, again, a lot of improvement. It will be a profitable second half, not unfortunately a profitable full year. We've got a shot at doing that at grid, as I mentioned earlier. But I think as we look at '24 in onshore, we should be in the low single digit range with obviously the intention as we go through the budget cycle here in November and December to see if we can put together a credible plan to do better. But that's the way I would think about it just given the back half momentum that we'll have entering into next year.
Rahul Ghai:
And, Joe, just to kind of complete that picture on renewables total, we -- as Larry said, we expect at least onshore to be at least kind of low single digit margins. Grid would be kind of mid single digit range. Offshore, as Larry said in his prepared remarks, it kind of -- we expect kind of similar levels of losses next year. But if you put all that together, it's still a pretty significant improvement year-over-year on both profit and then even more so on cash. So that's what we are expecting. So we won't be too far off from the framework that Scott laid out at Investor Day for the renewables business.
Larry Culp:
And, Joe, just to make sure we're clear about the shipments, the progress that you're seeing at Dogger Bank and Vineyard, operationally, I think we're pleased to see that. I know our customers are to see those initial installations and the initial generation of power. However, right, that progress is what triggers the revenue recognition, which in turn carries the losses. So that's a little bit of what is operationally encouraging, but financially difficult to work our way through. So just wanted to clarify that point.
Steven Winoker:
Liz, let's make time for one last question.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.
Christopher Snyder:
Thank you. I'm assuming you can hear me. I wanted to follow up on aviation margins, which continue to outpace expectations. And so I understand the mix headwinds are coming through maybe a bit more muted as the service business is doing better, but it also sounds like price-cost and just efficiency continues to work in the company's favor. Can you talk about some of the company-specific actions that have been boosting or helping segment margins outside of this mix? And does the current strength you're seeing change the way you think about the 20% target for 2025? Thank you.
Rahul Ghai:
So, you're right. There's lots of really good stuff happening in the company. Price is clearly a positive for us. It was a positive -- we were price-cost positive in '22 in Aerospace. We'll be price-cost positive in '23 in Aerospace. Not at the -- not only at the overall company level, but even at commercial and at defense. So that -- the business is doing really well on kind of getting the price increases and managing the inflation. We've made progress on productivity as well. So that's the other part. Not to the extent that we would have liked, but it is progress. And we are encouraged by even the underlying progress on productivity that is currently sitting in our inventory numbers that will roll through next year. So there is positive momentum on productivity. So all that is a positive. And as you think about kind of the 20% margin number for 2025, obviously, that's still -- we're still at the end of 2023. So it's a couple of years away. But as you think about where we're going to end the year to 2025, we're going to end the year, call it, at $6 billion of profit. We said between, call it, between $7.6 billion and $8 billion of profit for 2025. So we still have a 1 billion-ish of profit growth every year between '24 and '25. So that's a mid-teens profit growth, which is pretty good. And the benefits of volume, price, productivity will be partially offset by this LEAP headwind that we spoke about. We start shipping 9x as well. So, 9x, that's going to create some incremental pressure. And then we'll continue to invest in R&D. So that's the construct to get to the 20% margins.
Steven Winoker:
Larry, any final comments?
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you. Just to close, appreciate everybody's time today. Obviously, very strong performance so far this year. A lot of progress toward the launches of both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. And frankly, I've never been more confident in our company's future. We appreciate your time today and your investment and support of our company.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to General Electric Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. My name is Liz, and I will be your conference coordinator today. If you experience issues with the webcast slides refreshing where there appears to be delays in the slide advancement, please hit F5 on your keyboard to refresh. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE's second quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. GE Aerospace CFO Rahul Ghai will also assume the role of GE’s CFO in September will join us for Q&A. Some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes. Over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you and good morning everyone. The GE team turned in another strong quarter with double-digit growth in orders, revenue, operating profit and cash, supported by services strength, robust market demand and the lean transformation within our more focused businesses. In the first half alone, earnings have now surpassed our full year 2022 results. GE Aerospace is growing rapidly as we execute on the ramp of our customers, and GE Vernova is strengthening pre-spin with record orders in improving profitability at Renewable Energy and continued margin expansion at Power. Based largely on year-to-date performance and expectations for continued strength in the second half, we are raising full year guidance today. Big picture is a clear sense of progress, passion and purpose within our businesses. This was particularly evident to me when I was in France last month. At the Paris Air Show, GE Aerospace shared our bold vision to define flight for today, tomorrow and the future during meetings with customers, suppliers and investors. CFM’s RISE demonstrator program drew a lot of excitement, as it aims to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by at least 20% compared to today's most efficient engines. I also saw our GE Vernova team for our Onshore Wind and Grid operating reviews, where we discussed opportunities and challenges with equal candor and transparency. We focus on how we grow these businesses profitably by applying real lean at the point of impact to drive results. We're also seeing lean’s impact in our offshore wind facility in Saint-Nazaire, where the team has reduced cycle times to assemble the cell roofs by nearly 50% through multiple kaizens. So while it's still early, I'm encouraged by examples like this across GE Vernova. Day in, day out we're increasingly operating as GE Aerospace and GE Vernova, two industry leaders with large installed bases where services represent about 70% of GE Aerospace revenue, and about half of GE Vernova revenue. In addition to attractive economics services keep us close to our customers. We understand the issues they're wrestling with, and how our technology is performing, which shapes our future roadmaps. And with our businesses executing we're advancing towards their launches as independent investment grade companies next year. When I reflect on how far we've come, it always starts with the team. So a big thank you to the entire global GE team. There's a lot to be excited about as we look forward to the rest of this year. Before I turn it over to Carolina to take you through our results in detail, let me take a moment to welcome Rahul to his additional role as GE’s CFO this fall. Since joining GE Aerospace last year, he has quickly become an impactful and influential member of our GE Aerospace leadership team. And so with our final spin approaching sometime in early 24 and Rahul assuming the CFO job in September 1, this is Carolina’s last earnings call. She has been a trusted strategic partner through significant deleveraging, improving our operating results and building the financial foundation for our three independent companies. We're deeply grateful for her many contributions. So on behalf of the entire GE team and for me personally, Carolina Thank you.
Carolina Happe:
Thanks, Larry. It's truly an honor to be part of GE’s ambitious transformation. And I'm incredibly proud of the work this team has done to build lasting value. And a special thank you to our finest ambitious teams for their extraordinary efforts. Now turning to slide 3, which I'll speak to on an organic basis. In the second quarter, we delivered double-digit growth across all headline metrics. Orders increased 58% up in all segments, equipment was up significantly led by renewable. This includes two large HVDC projects with Tennet at Grid and higher margin orders at U.S. Onshore Wind. Aerospace is also up with solid defense engine orders. Services was up 21%, the growth in all segments largely driven by commercial Aerospace strength. Revenue increased 19% with both equipment and services up. Also here, Aerospace led the way as lead engine deliveries nearly doubled and services grew. Renewables also grew led by Onshore Wind and Grid with improved pricing. Adjusted margin expanded 160 basis points driven by volume, price and productivity. This was partially offset by mix inflation and investment. Taken together adjusted EPS was $0.68 nearly double what we delivered last year, driven by profit growth in all segments and meaningful deleveraging. Free cash flow was $415 million more than double what we delivered last year, driven by earnings growth. Looking at the flows, we reduced working capital from the first quarter, given the sequential revenue growth and preparation for large second half deliveries, receivables and inventory were use of cash. This was more than offset by progress payments and contract assets utilization driven billings. At both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova we’re implementing weekly cash management and already seeing some linear progress. Importantly, our first half free cash flow underscores these efforts up $1.5 billion year-over-year. This includes $0.5 billion lower working capital than in 2022. Now a moment on corporate. Adjusted costs were up year-over-year primarily driven by non-repeat of 2022 timing benefits. We’re preparing for standalone cost structures with functional headcount down 10% year-to-date. And for the year, we continue to expect expenses in the $600 million range. We also continue to simplify and strengthen the business foundations prior to the launches of GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. This quarter, we partially monetized our GE Healthcare stake, and today we announced that we will call the remainder of the outstanding GE Preferred Stock in September, further simplifying our balance sheet and reducing financing costs. And we took action to reduce our exposure to legacy liabilities. As we have disclosed for some time, our runoff Polish mortgage portfolio, Bank BPH, has been subject to ongoing litigation along with other Polish banks. We approved the adoption of a settlement program and associated with that we recorded a charge of $1 billion in discontinued operations. Importantly, no incremental cash contributions from GE are required in connection with the charge as the current cash balances of Bank BPH are adequate. Overall, we're very pleased with our spin progress and first half, which includes adjusted EPS up more than three times compared to a year ago. So given the strength of GE Aerospace, and the improvement at GE Vernova, for the full year, we're now expecting revenue growth in the low double digit range up from high single digits. $2.10 to $2.30 of adjusted EPS, up from $1.70 to $2 and that includes 4.7 billion to 5.1 billion of operating profit. And finally, we now guide for a range of $4.1 billion to $4.6 billion for free cash flow up from $3.6 billion to $4.2 billion. And on that happy note, back to you Larry.
Larry Culp:
Carolina, thank you. As many of you saw at the Paris Air Show, GE Aerospace showcased industry leading solutions for both commercial and defense across propulsion, systems and services. Our teams are delivering for customers both in services and by growing our large young fleet of 41,000 commercial engines and 26,000, rotorcraft and combat engines. Today we're partnering with airframers, airlines and lessors to drive stability and predictability as they ramp. For Tomorrow we're growing and optimizing our next generation of engines. This quarter for example, our defense team signed a historic MOU with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to produce jet fighters, jet fighter engines for the Indian Air Force. And while our commercial business secured major deals with Riyadh Air, Jet2 and more. For the future, we're developing next generation technologies like RISE, hybrid electrics, and sustainable aviation fuels. As a result of our efforts to embed lean and empower those closest to the action, I'm seeing greater intensity, discipline and focus. For example, as we discussed in June while supply chain and inflation challenges persist, we're using a lean tool called Plan For Every Part to implement pull and improve delivery. Sustaining lean efforts like this help us increase sequential engine deliveries by 35% in the second quarter, including a 40% improvement in T700 from a 25% reduction in lead times. Looking at the market, departures have almost returned to pre-COVID levels. This rapid growth was evident in our quarterly results. Orders are up 37% with strength in commercial services and defense. Revenue was up 28% with equipment growing at double the services rate. Profit improved close to $350 million or nearly 30%. Margins contracted 30 basis points organically. Volume pricing net of inflation productivity were offset by unfavorable mix, increased investments and the non-repeated positive contract margin adjustments last year. Once again, Commercial Engines and Services was particularly robust with 32% revenue growth. Commercial Engines revenue grew 35% with LEAP deliveries up over 80% year-over-year and over 10% sequentially. We're on track for 1700 LEAP deliveries this year. As expected the LEAP spare engine deliveries ratio was higher than 2022 but we expect this to normalize in the second half remaining roughly in line with 2022 for the full year Commercial Services revenue also grew over 30%. Internal shop visits increased over 10% and external spare parts were up over 40%. For the year, we now expect commercial engines revenue to grow mid-to-high 20s and commercial services to grow above 20%. Defense improved this quarter delivering significant growth. Orders more than doubled, engine output increased with units up over 70% year-over-year. Through the first half, we deliver double-digit revenue growth and we're on track for at least high single digit growth this year. Looking ahead, we're constantly innovating here as well. XA100 is the only engine tested and ready to ensure the U.S. maintains air superiority this decade. This engine is the most cost effective option to meet the needs of the U.S. warfighter for decades to come. We're pleased the house has recognized the importance of this program by including funding in the National Defense Authorization Act, and in the House Appropriations Committee defense bill. We’ll be closely watching the Senate as it considers legislation this week. Based on our first half strength, we're raising revenue growth to high teens to 20% and operating profit to $5.6 billion to $5.9 billion, up roughly $1 billion year-over-year at the midpoint. And we expect free cash flow to be even stronger year-over-year in line with our increased profit expectations. Moving to GE Vernova. We continue to see long term growth tailwinds driven by the need for more sustainable, affordable, resilient energy along with energy security. And we're encouraged by the team's progress as they use Lean to strengthen operations, driving toward a significant inflection in 2024. This quarter renewables demonstrated continued improvement. Market demand drove record orders led by Grid with two more large HVDC projects. Even excluding these projects, Grid orders were up over 40%. As expected, we also recognized a large U.S. offshore order, which was included in our backlog forecast at our March investor conference. Onshore Wind was strong again, led by North American equipment growing more than threefold. We serve many of North America's largest developers, and the IRA incentives are helping grow orders significantly this year. Revenue grew 27% organically driven by higher equipment deliveries across both Wind and Grid, and offshore revenue tripled year-over-year as we increase in cell production with June, the highest month to date. Importantly, profit improved year-over-year and sequentially for the second consecutive quarter driven by price and productivity improvements primarily at Onshore and Grid. Going deeper into each business, at onshore the progress continued. First, we're seeing the impact of enhancing our underwriting rigor and focusing on select markets with fewer product offerings. Second, we're driving price to manage inflation. As we've seen the past four quarters equipment margins on new orders are coming in higher than current margins, especially here in the U.S. This will help drive improved profitability going forward. Next, we're improving reliability through our fleet enhancement program. And as of July we're almost 30% complete and we expect to be more than halfway done by year end. Our cost rationalization continues with onshore headcount down roughly 30% year-over-year. And offshore we're improving on the Haliade-X learning curve and reducing cycle times to deliver for our customers as we work through our initial projects. And finally, in grid, the top line grew double digits in all businesses with significant margin expansion from volume, price and productivity. Grade was profitable this quarter and remains on track to turn profitable for the full year. Looking ahead, we're raising our full year renewables revenue growth forecast to high single digits. And we're expecting some sequential profit improvement in the second half driven by Onshore Wind and Grid. Turning to power, power continues to deliver solid results and reliable earnings and cash flow providing critical support for future growth at GE Vernova. And at the same time our multiyear decarbonisation efforts continue. Just this month the province of Ontario announced we’ll work together on the planning and licensing process for three more potential new small modular reactors there using our BWRX-300 design. Looking at the market, GE gas turbine utilization grew at a low single digit rate this quarter. Orders grew high single digits with strength from gas power transactional services. Revenue declined slightly largely due to error derivative shipment timing. Services however continue to grow and we had higher HA deliveries. This provides stable base load power to the Grid now and generates future services growth. Power delivered continued profit growth and margin expansion, price, productivity and higher contractual outage volume on heavy duty units more than offset inflation. Overall in the first half power revenue grew mid-single digits organically and margins expanded led by gas power services. For the year we continue to expect low single digit revenue growth and given our second quarter performance we now expect power's profit to be even better versus 2022. Taking together for GE Vernova, we're raising our revenue forecast to mid-single digit growth. We're also improving our profit guidance through them by both renewables and power. And now expect a negative $400 million to a negative $100 million this year, an improvement of almost $800 million year-over-year at the midpoint. We continue to expect flat to slightly improved free cash flow. Overall we're pleased with our progress and momentum, but of course more remains to be done. So to wrap up on slide 7, our businesses delivered a strong half anchored by missions that matter to our customers and to the world. GE Aerospace, inventing the future of flight, GE Vernova electrifying and decarbonizing the world. We're excited about where we are and where we're headed and I'm confident we're well positioned for success as two innovative service focus market leaders. Steve with that. Let's go to Q&A.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks Larry. Before we open the line I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. Liz, please open the line.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning everyone. Thank you. I want to ask about Aerospace profitability. When we look at year-to-date margins for the first half, Aero margins are 18.9% and the full year implied guidance is 18.5%. So what are the dynamics of contraction in the second half given the commentary in the release prior was -- the commentary in your release is good market strength, efficiencies are coming through, you've shipped 46% of the LEAP in H1, slightly ahead of your prior expectation of sequential improvement for the year? So what happened that margins contracted in the second half?
Larry Culp:
Sheila, thank you. No, you're spot on. And I think as we referenced, there is largely a mix dynamic in play as equipment revenues begin to accelerate here, vis-à-vis, services. But I think that's an excellent question for Rahul to jump in on here. It's one of the reasons we wanted to have him here with us this morning. Rahul?
Rahul Ghai:
Yes, thanks Larry, morning Sheila. So you know first let me just go back to how good the second quarter was which you referenced, we had 28% organic growth. Commercial engines up more than 50%, service continuing a really strong run with 30% plus growth. Defense recovering as Larry said in his remarks to be up double digit on revenue growth for the first half. And profit was up more than 30% year-over-year with margin expansion. And the quarter was better than what we had expected going back all the way to April. So but more importantly as we looked at the quarter it gave us the confidence to raise the full year. And our profit is up $1 billion for the year at the midpoint of the guide with the year-over-year margin expansion. So that's a positive change as well. And relative to April we're raising the full year profit by about $250 million at the midpoint of the guide with about $400 million of revenue increase. So that's about a 60% incremental drop through and that is happening even though most of the revenue increase in our guide is coming from commercial OE as we are raising the commercial OE outlook from approximately 20 to mid-to-high 20s. So the business is doing better on execution and the improvement in the spare parts growth is helping as well. Now to your question on the sequential view between first half and second half, the key driver of the sequential growth is commercial -- is coming from commercial OE, which is up probably 60% between first half, second half. And that's the reversal of what we saw last year. Last year, most of the first half and the second half growth was coming from commercial services. And within commercial OE, there is a spare installs dynamic happening as well, with installs being as a percentage of total shipments, increasing as we get into the second half of the year. So that's why you're seeing a sequential step down in margin. But again, it's going to be a really good year. We're going to expand margins and grow profit about $1 billion for the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Oh, yes. Good morning. I'll stay in the Power lane, given that there are more illustrious analysts now covering the stock. Offshore, interestingly, you noted favorable year-over-year orders in offshore, and I thought the commentary was that you were not looking at offshore orders. And also if you could comment on the industry dynamic because it seems that folks are pulling out of offshore as the overall pricing dynamic is not favorable. So people are pulling away from contracts. So more color on offshore would be great. And great quarter. Thank you.
Larry Culp:
Thank you, Andrew. You're illustrious in our eyes, rest assured. I could say with respect to the offshore order, again, that was something that we knew we had coming. There were just some details that we needed to lock down and we were pleased to do that. But really no surprise from what we shared with you out in Cincinnati in March in that regard. Now, I think for us, we're still building out this Offshore business. We referenced what we're doing in terms of production in Saint-Nazaire to begin to flow this backlog, this nascent backlog that we have. We certainly have read and have had direct discussions with a number of customers on both sides the Atlantic as they prepare for the next decade. I think we're optimistic about Offshore Wind. I know there were some pressure over the course that weekend that talked to some of the potential delays, but -- at the end of the day as we think about the energy transition we think about various ways in which certainly the coast are going to be powered with renewable sources, Offshore has a role to play there. I mean, what we want to do is build up a business that has a respectable profitable slice of that market. Really pleased with the progress we’re making in Onshore. I think everything that we said a year ago is playing out in terms of our selectivity, the improvement in the quality of the backlog from a from a pricing and from a cost perspective. I think the team here we've talked often about how they're going to run the power playbook have done a really nice job making sure that we are working through some of the quality issues that triggered the charge that we took in the third quarter of last year and again our cost base is 30% better than it was just 12 months ago. So you put that together, you can really see the churn in Onshore. And Grid, we don't talk a lot about Grid, but really pleased with similar execution against a backdrop where I think maybe more so in Europe but increasingly here in the U.S. people appreciate how critical grid modernization will be to the energy transition. So we've got three as they say in Aerospace, angles of attack, in renewables, gas continuing to play a vital role. So we like the way that we're positioned, offshore wind being one play amongst many at GE Vernova.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.
Seth Seifman:
Hey, good morning. So I wanted to ask with regard to the margin rate for Aerospace in the second half, if you could talk a little bit about what role you expect pricing to play there and the extent to which it can offset the mix headwinds. And then maybe just a technical question, I think you talked about really strong growth in spare parts and just when we try to think about this and model it going forward I think if I -- if I look in the Q it's like a low single digit growth in the spare's rate per day, but I think spares were up something like 40% in the quarter, so just kind of how to square those things and how we can kind of measure that and think about it going forward.
Rahul Ghai:
So let me start with the first question on pricing Seth. So again, I think the price continues to be a positive driver in terms of earnings growth across both defense and commercial. And we are price cost positive both in the quarter and expect to be price cost positive for the year. So the trends continue to be good, and that is similar to what we saw last year. So really no change in terms of how we are driving incremental pricing to cover the inflation that we are feeling in the business. Now, in terms of our spare part sales, yes, the spare part sales you are right, I mean, it was really good, really good growth in the quarter, more than 40%. And I would say three large drivers of the spare part growth. First, the price increases that we just spoke about, but it is just not the increase, it is also the discipline with which we are driving the business so that we are making sure that we are extracting the most out of the price increases that we are putting in place. The second was the customer mix was favorable as well. So, that helped drive spare part sales. And the third I would say is if you go to back to 2022, China was really weak last year, especially in the second and third quarters because of the shutdown in China. So, the year-over-year growth trends were helped by a weak compare in the second quarter in China. Now, that dynamic is going to shift a little bit as we get into the second half of the year, because if you recall, China came back really strongly in the fourth quarter to get ready for the reopening in first quarter. So, that’s going to impact our spare part growth in the second half of the year on a year-on-year basis. So, overall, I think we’re really pleased with how spare parts are trending, good growth in the quarter and expect continued growth of the second half of the year on a year-over-year basis although at a slower rate.
Operator:
Our next question comes from a line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe I just wanted to focus on the renewables business. I guess you had a very strong revenue uplift but the sort of incremental perhaps, if we're looking sequentially or year-on-year were not particularly strong, so maybe help us kind of pause that out in terms of maybe it's offshore losses getting a lot wider. And that's offsetting better incrementals, maybe at that Onshore and Grid, maybe just talk through some of those dynamics. And then as we're thinking about the second half for renewables and the sort of entry rates into 2024. How do we think about the losses narrowing, is it sort of linear or there's a step function sometime next year, because of offshore mix or something?
Larry Culp:
Julian, let me, let me frame that for you. I think you've got the contours exactly right. Again, I think that in 2023 what we've said all along is that what we really need to see is that sequential improvement in Onshore Wind. And that was really, if you will, the battleground for us this year, as we get ready to have Vernova go sometime early next year. And I think all in all, we saw that sequential improvement, again, a function of a better backlog being shipped from a, from a pricing, from a terms and conditions perspective, some of that's a function of our selectivity, some of that's a function of just improved market conditions. We know we are delivering a higher quality product to customers today, that's reflected in our cost performance, let alone the restructuring that has been underway there. And that really continues. And I'd also suggest that beyond what you see in those numbers, what I see in our operating reviews really gives me confidence that the teams running this business that we want them to run it. And that bodes well both for the back half improvements that are part of the guide here, but also getting us ready for next year. Again, a similar rollout in Grid. We've been at -- we've been running the Power playbook there for the last couple of years and having them turn profitable, not that that's the goal. We want to be a strong contributor here. I think it's another proof point of progress. You're right, Offshore Wind does begin to negate some of that progress as that mix effect takes a hold with the uptick in Offshore revenues improving and thus, the revenue recognition and the losses there as we work through that initial backlog. But we knew that was part of the start-up of Offshore Wind. So we see sequential progress. It's muted a bit perhaps in your eyes because of the Offshore effect. I mean, Offshore was roughly half of the loss in the second quarter. But given the progress in Onshore Wind, given the progress in Grid, given what we know we're going to be able to do an Offshore Wind next year, we feel very good about the progress and the momentum that we're making at Vernova or at renewables at large.
Rahul Ghai:
So just to add to into what Larry just said, so if you look at Vernova we are raising both revenue and profit guidance for the year, about $250 million of the profit raises from midpoint. And it's coming both with power and renewables contributing to the race. About a third of that is from the second quarter performance in power, driven by the strength of the services business and about two thirds from renewables in the second half of 2023, with improvement in both Onshore and Grid, Onshore mainly because of the backlog, margins improving and in Grid from volume and productivity. So good progress in both businesses year-over-year and on a sequential basis.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.
Robert Spingarn:
Morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Rob.
Robert Spingarn:
Larry, maybe on the product development side, perhaps a little high level. But Airbus has said that an A220-500 is a matter of when and not if. And they've also openly talked about the desire to add a second engine to the family. And so given that, that aircraft would directly compete against the MAX 8, do you feel the need to get the LEAP-1B on to the A220 family?
Larry Culp:
Rob, I thought your multi-series coverage on that specific topic and how the 2 airframers are going to play out their narrow-body product strategy here really captured well the critical questions that we're all wrestling with. As you probably can respect, we're in deep with both of our airframer customers relative to our own product road map and technology road map for that matter, i.e., RISE, and how we can work together as they evolve their own product strategy. So specifically to the A220-500, I think we'll keep our comments private. We'll have that conversation with Guillaume and his team. But obviously, as we evolve our product portfolio, we want to be on all the critical platforms that matter in the decades ahead.
Operator:
Our next question comes from a line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray:
First of all, thank you to Carolina and wish you all the best.
Carolina Happe:
Thank you Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey, Larry, I know you talked about the renewable orders that were booked in terms of profitability. But can you generalize a bit and talk about the range of customer modifications within these orders that were booked that had been a problem before, too much variability versus steering customers to a more standardized offering. Did that readout in these orders?
Larry Culp:
Dean, we should have mentioned that earlier. Thanks for asking me about that. Part of what we've tried to do, in addition to our selectivity effort in terms of the types of opportunities that we pursue, is also make sure that, frankly, we are driving more standardized offerings. I would say that we are seeing probably more in the order book than in the P&L today the positive effect of that. I'd also say coupled with that is just a, frankly, a more conservative forward estimation of cost and that that will play out over time. We'll see how conservative those estimates are. But I know that the team for the last several quarters is really not that too far into the future. These will be the cost position that we anticipate having when we deliver on this growing backlog. So you put all that together, in addition to the quality improvement that we put across the sharply reduced cost structure that we have in the business. I think that's why we've got particularly an Onshore Wind, the optimism we do about the back half, and profitability in 2024.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Hey good morning, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Hey, good morning, hey, just to follow up on renewables maybe just love to get your thoughts on the trajectory of free cash flow, kind of stuck with the same language, right flat to improving, but I'm wondering if inside that, given the better trajectory of profitability, apparently, and what looks like some decent orders that should be coming with deposits attached if in fact, the free cash flow outlook for renewables has improved for the year. And if you have anything to share about how you'd view 2024 playing out? Thank you.
Rahul Ghai:
So let me start, Jeff, with 2023 first. So on renewables for full year, in the current construct, what you'll find is kind of flattish to last year, $150-ish million positive from earnings, right, with huge growth in earnings minus the charge that we took last year and good progress on Onshore Wind here, especially with the progress payments. Grid's doing well, but it's coming -- it's getting offset by the offshore from absence of progress payments and the way the contract assets are playing out. So overall, renewables, think of that as kind of flat year-over-year for full year. And then if you go to Power, the fact is Power free cash could be slightly down year-over-year. Again, positive earnings from cash, but it's getting pressured with these contract assets because as the revenue growth happens, we burn through the contract assets that are sitting on our books because the revenue exceeds the billings. So that's what's happening on the Power side. So it's good for the business. The revenue growth is happening. The outages are helping. It's driving good revenue growth, but has a temporary negative impact on free cash. Now obviously, as we get into 2024, we'll provide more guidance as we get towards the end of the year into next year, but we do expect strong sequential improvement year-over-year in Vernova business overall.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
And Carolina congratulations and good luck. So just wondered if maybe we could just dive into maybe 3Q and look at some of the moving pieces for both earnings and free cash flow. And on top of that, just this $1 billion charge on the Polish Bank, is that just writing down the remaining net asset value in that business, no cash? And does that clean up litigation there? Thanks.
Larry Culp:
Yes, so on Poland, Nigel, I didn't fully follow your third quarter question. So let's come back to that. But let me start with Poland. So we've been working to simplify the legacy liabilities. And it's a meaningful step forward in that direction prior to spend. We're approving a settlement program. And that significantly reduces our exposure to future losses. And as Carolina said in her prepared remarks, there's no incremental GE cash from taking this reserve, as the bank has adequate cash balances. So we feel good to get this as much as we can behind us, obviously, the situation is revolving. But at this point, it's a really good step forward as we clean up and simplify all the legacy liabilities.
Nigel Coe:
And the 3Q question, just guys, just how are we thinking about 3Q guidance guys, overall?
Larry Culp:
Yes. So on third quarter, expect high single-digit revenue growth in the quarter and then EPS range of about $0.45 to $0.55 with sequential profit growth in both Aerospace and in Renewables. And we will see a pretty strong growth in Power in the third quarter on profit, and expect the margins to go up 3 to 4 points on Power. And if you look at the EPS that we're providing, the range that we're providing of $0.45 to $0.55, that's about 2x what we did last year even if we exclude the charge. So it's a significant improvement from that. And for Aerospace, going back all the way to prior questions, profit will be up sequentially, but the margin rates could be down slightly given the majority of the first half to second half increase is coming from commercial OE. And then Renewables will continue to see sequential improvements, given Onshore Wind and Grid performance. And then as I said, Power, given the outage activity in the third quarter, we do expect good improvement there and free cash. And the free cash kind of flat to up slightly in the quarter with earnings growth and working capital reduction offsetting the D&A headwind.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning everyone, Carolina, thanks for your help. Could you give us some little more color into the improvement you're seeing in your defense business, you talked about orders more than doubling revenue was up 31%. This defense growth and profitability really turned the corner for you guys. And how do we think about its contribution to growth and margin over the next couple of quarters and into ‘24? I know you said that you spent at least high single digit growth or defense but this GE Defense now have an extended runway for growth?
Larry Culp:
Andy, maybe I'll start. As we indicated in our prepared remarks, and I think we have through the last several quarters, demand is not our fundamental challenge in the Defense arena, throughput is. And the supply chain challenges that we've talked about and everyone talks about certainly applied to Defense. I think we've had some particular issues that have challenged us, especially so with the first quarter numbers. I think we're really encouraged by what we have seen recently, not only with the T700, but with a host of platforms where our material flow in our own facilities is better. We are improving yields in a number of key operations that allows that flow to take place. And we talked a little bit about PFEP, a plan for every part, how that helps us implement pull and turn improved deliveries. So our signals to not only our internal supply base, but also our external supply base are better and more clear. We're not just trying to work against past due, but really targeting what we need when we need it. And that has, in turn; I think had some early impact here. And to the extent that we're able to do that, do that productively, and we've certainly seen, I think, improvements not only in traditional material price cost, but also beginning to see some labor productivity improvements, all of that accrues to our good. But as long as we're able to continue to drive this output level, we'll see that high single-digit top line number and, in turn, the goodness that will follow out from a margin and from a cash perspective. Rahul, anything you'd add there?
Rahul Ghai:
No, Larry, I think you covered it. I think it's good to see the recovery happening in the second half -- in the second quarter kind of puts us back on track for the full year. And we're seeing good demand and good improvement in year-over-year delivery. So we expect a good half in the back half of the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie:
Hey good morning guys and Carolina thank you for all the help throughout the years.
Carolina Happe:
Thank you. Thanks Joe.
Joseph Ritchie:
So really my question -- well, congrats on all the progress you're making, cleaning up the balance sheet with the pref redemption, the Polish mortgage announcement today. I'm just curious from this point forward, how are you thinking about capital allocation pre-spend? And then any color that you can give us on just the progress of the spend? I know you said early 2024, but just any other hurdles that you see from here to there.
Larry Culp:
Joe, I would say that there really isn't any change in our perspective this morning with respect to the spend and the capital allocation decisions that we'll take between now and then. We've talked about Vernova launching sometime early next year. That is still very much the case today. We've talked about that really being a function of their performance, not necessarily our readiness, because the teams that are focused on the separation work had, I think, real success with HealthCare, are rerunning that playbook here and are exactly where we would want to be in the middle of July. So as we look forward again, I think we're really encouraged by what we have seen in the first half results and in the second half outlook. Still work to do, right? There's a negative operating loss there that none of us feel great about. But I think what we've said is the way we'll define winning is sequential improvement business by business. And what we've seen in Onshore and Grid, I think we can all be quite proud of. With respect to capital allocation, Job 1 remains a successful standup of all 3 of these companies. And while you've seen us continue to make progress on some of the specific initiatives like the monetization of the AerCap stake, likewise with HealthCare, you mentioned the preps, thank you, even the -- well, just you put all that together, we're very much going to be in position from a balance sheet perspective to not only launch but then allow each of the respective Boards at Aerospace and Vernova to shape the contours of a capital allocation policy fit for each business. So that may be a little boring perhaps here in the near term, but this team is hyper focused on what our overarching priority is over the next several quarters, and that is the successful spin of GE Vernova and successful standup of GE Aerospace.
Steven Winoker:
Liz, we have time for one last quick question.
Operator:
This question will come from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.
Christopher Snyder:
I appreciate the time. So I want to ask on renewables. Revenue was up 12% in the first half of the year. And with the full year guidance calling for high single-digit revenue growth, it's I guess implying like a fall down to low singles in the back half of the year. Can you just maybe talk about what's driving that? Because it doesn't seem to jive with orders up well over 100% for the first half. Thank you.
Rahul Ghai:
So the orders don't help much this year, Chris. I mean, that's mainly -- those revenues, those orders will kind of play out over ‘24 and even ‘25. So -- and what you see between the first half growth and the second half growth is just basically project timing. It's just a question of which projects are getting executed and how those projects play out. So -- but again, it's good progress, feel better about the year, raising guidance on renewables, on revenue growth. So it's good progress. And the orders that we -- and the orders are obviously very, very strong, and that helps ‘24 and ‘25.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks, Rahul. Larry, any final comment?
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you. No, I would say simply to close a strong first half in 2023. And frankly, I've never been more confident in our path ahead as we prepare to launch both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Thanks everybody for your time today and your investment and support of our company.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to General Electric's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE's first quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Happe. Some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes. As a reminder, similar to our fourth quarter call, our remarks will be brief today, reflecting the company we are now and we'll move more quickly to Q&A. Over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter as a new GE, a simpler and more focused GE. We are now GE Aerospace and GE Vernova, 2 industry leaders in their own rights. We're creating significant value today, underscored by strong first quarter results, 17% organic revenue growth with all segments up, more than doubling our adjusted profit with margin expansion in all segments, resulting in $0.27 of adjusted EPS and positive free cash flow. This performance reflects robust market demand for our innovative technologies and services, and we're operating leaner and more focused businesses. Services proved again they're clearly one of our best assets, representing more than 60% of revenue, given not only the resiliency and higher margins we enjoy, but the fact they keep us in daily contact with our customers. Since our investor conference in March, GE Aerospace has continued to see tremendous commercial momentum, delivering double-digit growth on the top and bottom lines. Our execution at GE Vernova is tracking well with continued signs of progress in renewable energy as Power continues to deliver. Now with GE Healthcare on its own, we're focused on launching these 2 businesses as independent investment-grade companies. Further, we also continued to simplify the balance sheet, partially monetizing our AerCap stake, closing out our Baker Hughes stake and calling half of the preferreds. We also named 2 new exceptional Board members
Carolina Happe:
Thanks, Larry. Turning to Slide 3, which I'll speak to on an organic basis. In the first quarter, top line momentum was strong with robust market demand and execution driving growth. Orders increased 26%, all segments up. Equipment was up significantly led by renewables, almost doubling its order intake. Notably, grid booked 2 large HVDC orders with Tenet and U.S. Onshore Wind is seeing the initial positive impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, including higher margin orders. Services was up 12%, largely driven by commercial aerospace activity. Revenue also increased double digits with strength in both equipment and services. Aerospace was a significant driver with substantial LEAP engine deliveries and shop visit growth, and we're encouraged by equipment growth in other areas such as Gas Power and Grid. Adjusted margin expanded 330 basis points, driven by services volume, price outpacing inflation and productivity. Together, doubling operating profit and debt reduction drove substantial accretion to adjusted EPS, up $0.36 year-over-year. Free cash flow was $102 million, positive. Importantly, it was up $1.3 billion year-over-year with half of the improvement from earnings and half from working capital. From a flow perspective, this was driven by higher earnings and some AD&A timing, partially offset by working capital as we build inventory to support second half growth. In addition to the strong earnings results, this was GE's first positive free cash flow in the first quarter since 2015. This achievement reflects our team's intense focus in sealing disciplined processes to enhance linearity and eliminate waste while driving operational efficiency and improved earnings and cash flow. A moment on corporate. Adjusted costs were down over 10% year-over-year, primarily driven by ongoing cost-out efforts and interest income as well as improvement in digital. For the year, we expect costs of around $600 million, half the amount in 2021 and in line with reduced corporate needs and progress setting up stand-alone cost structures. At insurance, as previously discussed, we now have adopted the industry-wide accounting standard for LDTI and we implemented first principles models. As of the end of 2022, the impact from this transition was $2.7 billion reduction in GAAP equity. These changes, including first principles, did not impact cash funding. We also funded the expected $1.8 billion during the quarter, in line with the permitted practice. Overall, we're pleased with the first quarter, delivering significant growth, margin, EPS and cash improvement. Based on this performance and market demand, we are raising the low end of our full year adjusted EPS range by $0.10 and our free cash flow range by $200 million. So we now expect adjusted EPS of $1.70 to $2 and free cash flow of $3.6 billion to $4.2 billion. And on that positive note, back to you, Larry, to discuss the businesses.
Larry Culp:
Carolina, thank you. Starting with GE Aerospace. As many of you heard from us just over a month ago at our customer technical education center in Cincinnati, a premier franchise with leading value propositions for propulsion and systems in both Commercial and Defense. With our highly differentiated technology and service portfolio, we're redefining flight for today, tomorrow and the future. Today, we're focused on partnering with air framers, airlines and lessors to drive stability and predictability as they ramp. For tomorrow, we're focused on roaming and optimizing our next generation of engines. Our recent proof point, our record-breaking deal with Air India with 800 LEAP 40 GEnx and 20 GE9X engines plus services. And for the future, we're developing next-generation technologies like RISE, hybrid electric and sustainable aviation fuels to better serve our customers and deliver growth. I'm extremely proud of how our team continues to make progress on these priorities, running the business with lean principles in a more decentralized manner with intensity, discipline and focus day in and day out. Looking at the market, the recovery has strengthened as the world is eager to travel, GE and CFM departures continue to improve, currently at 97% of '19 levels, and we still expect to be back to '19 levels later this year. To that end, we delivered strong results driven by this commercial momentum. Orders were up 14%. Revenue was up 25%, driven primarily by services and commercial engine deliveries. Profit improved up over 40%. And margins expanded due to services volume, pricing and productivity, which together more than offset negative mix, inflation and investments. Commercial Engines and Services performance was particularly robust with 35% revenue growth. Commercial Engines revenue grew over 30% with LEAP deliveries up over 50%. To support our customers, LEAP spare engine deliveries will be more first half loaded, but we expect this to normalize in the second half, remaining roughly in line with 2022 for the full year. Services revenue also grew over 30%. Internal shop visits increased over 30% and external spare parts was up over 20%. Favorable pricing and customer mix also contributed to the margins. We recently welcomed 2 new members of our LEAP MRO network, StandardAero and ST Engineering. Our external network for LEAP is now up to 5 partners, creating a highly competitive environment that drives a lower cost of ownership for our airline customers. Today, third-party MROs licensed by CFM service about 70% of the CFM56 shop visits. So this is a model that customers know well and trust today. In the supply chain, we saw areas of improvement with material inputs and LEAP shipments improving sequentially, thanks largely to our lean efforts. However, output continued to be impacted by material availability and supplier challenges, particularly in Defense, where revenue declined 2%. Lean is critical to improve process capabilities and increase material availability from our suppliers. In both Commercial and Defense, we use rigorous daily management with problem-solving across product lines, supply chain and engineering teams. This helped drive Commercial Engine deliveries to be up 40% year-over-year and recovery of roughly 70 engines in Defense, the first week of April. Predictability, stability and improved delivery remain key for us going forward. We're also constantly innovating for the future. Our XA100 is the only engine tested and ready to ensure the U.S. maintains air superiority this decade, especially critical as geopolitical threats grow. XA100 provides 30% more range, 20% greater acceleration and twice the thermal management capacity. This engine is the most effective -- the most cost-effective option to meet the needs of the U.S. war fighter for decades to come. Looking ahead, despite the encouraging start, as we shared in March, over the next few quarters, we'll face headwinds from tougher comps and the mix impact from equipment growth, inflation and investments. However, we continue to expect to deliver significant profit dollar growth and higher free cash flow in 2023, primarily from strong volume across engines and services, combined with better pricing and productivity. We'll share more details on our progress and our future as a stand-alone industry leader at the Paris Air Show in June. I look forward to seeing many of you there. Turning to Vernova. This business is already demonstrating how well it's positioned to support our customers through the energy transition. We're seeing favorable secular growth tailwinds underscored by IRA momentum and the need for sustainable, affordable, resilient and secure energy. This quarter at renewables, we saw continued signs of progress. We've talked about the IRA as a game changer, providing greater near-term and long-term demand certainty. We're already seeing this play out with significantly better visibility into our commercial pipeline over the next several years compared to this time just a year ago. Orders nearly doubled, led by Grid with strong growth across the businesses, including 2 large HVDC orders needed to connect new renewable sources to the Grid. Onshore equipment orders also increased with North America growing more than threefold. Revenues were up mid-single digits organically, driven primarily by Grid and Offshore Wind. Looking at services, excluding repower, core services grew again on both orders and revenue. We saw both sequential and year-over-year profit improvement driven by price and cost reduction benefits primarily at Onshore and Grid. To break it down by business, in Grid, we're clearly making progress. All 3 businesses saw strong top line growth with continued productivity gains in the first quarter, and we remain on track to achieve modest profitability for the full year. At Onshore, we're executing the strategy we shared with you in March. Focusing on select markets with a simplified range of product offerings, this in turn is yielding better margins in our backlog for longer-term profitable growth. And this quarter, we saw both sequential and year-over-year margin improvement, mostly in U.S. equipment. And we continue to drive pricing with positive price/cost. Our proactive fleet enhancement program is now roughly 20% complete. At the same time, we're still rationalizing our Onshore cost structure. As mentioned last quarter, headcount is down roughly 20% relative to last summer with more to do. And this has already begun to generate some savings. In Offshore, we're managing our existing Haliade-X backlog. This quarter, revenue more than doubled as we produced more nacelles. As discussed in March, we still expect Offshore to remain a near-term challenge as we execute our initial projects and improve our learning curve, both in terms of product cost and operational capabilities. Scott and the team are laser-focused on managing project costs and disbursements while improving our underwriting processes. Looking ahead for renewables overall, we're expecting a second quarter loss roughly in line with the first quarter. We continue to expect significant second half improvement year-over-year in Onshore Wind, which will be partially offset by Offshore Wind. As we said in March, we see an inflection to profitability from renewables in '24 from higher U.S. volume, price and continued cost out. Moving to Power. We delivered another quarter of solid growth, led by Gas Power, including both equipment and services. This business is a long-term cash generator and will help fund future growth at GE Vernova. Starting with the market, GE Gas Turbine utilization grew low single digits despite a milder winter in many markets, providing stable baseload power to customers transitioning from coal to gas or needing new power for electrification. We also continue to invest for the long term, including decarbonization pathways that will provide customers with cleaner, more reliable power. Focusing on the quarter, Power delivered solid top line growth with services up 8% organically, driven by Gas Power heavy-duty gas turbine transactional services and aero derivatives. Equipment revenue grew double digits as we shipped 5 more HDGT units compared to last year. This included 2 incremental HA units adding to our large gas installed base, which will serve us for years to come. Margins expanded despite a higher mix of HDGT equipment sales. We continue to manage inflationary pressures with price and continued productivity gains. Looking beyond the quarter, similar to last year, we see roughly 70% to 75% of Power's total year profit in the second half based on higher expected gas outage volume. Overall Power remains on track to deliver on its '23 commitments, including strong cash conversion. In summary, I'm encouraged by the progress we're making across GE Vernova. With the secular tailwinds, the impact of lean and our investments in the portfolio, I see tremendous value creation opportunity for years to come. So to wrap up on Slide 7. The GE team is off to an encouraging start in '23 and our progress continues. Our missions at both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova matter to the world, and we're crystal clear on how we plan to deliver on them. GE Aerospace has a bold vision to define the future of flight. With nearly 3 billion people flying with our engines under wing last year, this exceptional franchise is growing amidst the pronounced industry ramp. At GE Vernova, as the world looks to accelerate efforts to decarbonize and electrify, we're uniquely positioned with our solutions, which provide 30% of the world's electricity today. Our renewables business is showing continued signs of progress with clearly more to do, while Power continues to deliver solid growth. Simply put, we're improving how we operate, how we innovate and how we deliver for our customers. I couldn't be more excited about the future and where we're going. So with that, let's go to Q&A. Steve?
A - Steven Winoker:
Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask 1 question so we can get to as many people as possible. Liz, please open the line.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.
Robert Spingarn:
As you might expect, I'm going to start with an Aerospace question, if that's okay. I want to ask, with the LEAP Engine, as the program matures and the time on wing improves and the installed base grows, can you eventually get LEAP aftermarket margins to the CFM56 level?
Larry Culp:
Rob, as you know, the 2 -- and we talked about this, I think, at some length at CTEC back in March, the 2 are very different places in the life cycle, right? But as I think Mohamed shared with you, there are a whole host of things that we have learned along the CFM56 journey that we have every intention of porting back into the LEAP. We still need to get LEAP both from a new unit and from a services perspective to profitability. That is a mid-decade task for us here in the near term. I think we're making good progress in that regard. But there's no reason we shouldn't have that level of expectation or that you should have that level of expectation over time with the LEAP. There's a lot that goes into that. We mentioned in the prepared remarks the expansion of our third-party partner network with StandardAero and ST Engineering coming on board. That's another step in the right direction to set this business up to have a similar profile over time.
Robert Spingarn:
Would you -- Larry, would you say when you think about productivity versus volume versus initiatives of pricing, et cetera, when we think about that margin expansion, how would you bucket those?
Larry Culp:
Well, Rob, I think they all matter, right? Again, we're in the midst of an incredible ramp. There are a whole host of things that will benefit us from that volume. That said, that as we improve performance, as we improve on wing periods, that will certainly accrue to the margin profile. But there's a whole host of things just directly with respect to the cost structure, be it a new engine or aftermarket services and parts that will also be something that I'm sure for the next 10 or 15 years, we'll be looking to drive improvements in year in, year out. So it's really all of the above.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
So yes. It's definitely a simpler company, that’s for sure. So I thought the narrowing in the losses from 4Q to 1Q of renewables was very encouraging on the lower sales and volumes. So it just seems that you suggest there is an underlying improvement in the cost base, et cetera, and the backlog quality. Maybe just talk about, number one, is that correct? And secondly, as we go into second quarter, can we expect to see another narrowing of losses Q-over-Q? And then maybe just touch on the order strengths. I think there's $5 billion of orders. I know there's a large HVDC order in there. But maybe just talk about what you've seen in Onshore and whether you've got better visibility on that Onshore ramp in the second half of the year?
Larry Culp:
Nigel, thank you. I think that we take a great deal of conviction about the path forward just given the last couple of quarters and, frankly, the lack of surprises, right? You've seen that. We've seen that. Neither of us have been happy about that. But credit to the team, I think we've gotten to a place where despite the losses, there are fewer surprises and we're seeing less of that. The drivers are just what you're highlighting here, both in terms of higher quality top line as we have improved the pricing and the selectivity of the orders that we're taking on and in turn, the adjustments that we've made to the cost structure. We talked about the headcount reductions, but that is really only part of what we've done from a cost and from a productivity perspective. The quality improvements help and will continue to help over time. So I think in Onshore Wind, I would certainly expect to see again a slight improvement in the second quarter, but it will be in line with what we've seen here in the first. It's really a second half story, and everything that we see today continues to give us the confidence that we'll see an improvement in Onshore in the second half and we should be profitable. We'll see, I think, some challenges as we look at the segment overall, given some of the ramp dynamics we've talked about in Offshore. But between what we'll see in the second half with Onshore, the improvements at Grid, again, this will be a year of profitability at Grid. I think we're feeling good about the setup as we exit '23, getting ready for '24. Carolina, anything you'd add there?
Carolina Happe:
Yes. So therefore, the second quarter, we are expecting similar losses to the first quarter. And Larry touched on -- or he talked about the Onshore. We also continue to see sort of progress in Grid come through. And then we know that Offshore Wind is sort of an investment, and we have the learning curve there where we expect to sort of move down that curve with sort of cost out and better project execution. So that's why in '23, we do see a headwind from profit and cash. But overall, moving towards a stronger second half in 2023 on profit and then getting positive in 2024.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
On Q1, it seems like a strong start to aerospace margins with 19% versus the implied guidance of 18% margin, and this was despite LEAP up 53% year-over-year. Any detail on where exactly you saw net price and productivity come through the most? And you didn't mention this in the script, Larry. But any on-wing reliability issues and how much does that impact profitability?
Larry Culp:
Sheila, you're spot on. We're very pleased with the margin that we posted here in the first quarter. But I think we continue to try to temper expectations with respect to margin expansion this year as we go forward sequentially. A lot of things really broke our way in the first quarter. I think we still expect to have a robust dollar profit growth year, right, with the guide that we have of $5.3 billion to $5.7 billion. We should be up at the midpoint, 15% year-over-year in dollars. And there were a number of things that broke our way. We didn't see as much mix pressure as we thought we would see in the first quarter. The strength in services certainly helped. But that mix pressure, both within equipment and between equipment and services will, I think, evolve through the course of the year, where we will see equipment grow in all likelihood at a rate greater than services, particularly given the LEAP shipments. And we know that inflation will continue to be a headwind for us. We're encouraged by some of the moderation that we see in certain commodities, but particularly in aerospace, given the fact that we've got so much in inventory, there's '22 inflation that we still need to work through the P&L, which will play out through the course of the year. That said, I mean, we feel very good about the margin structure in this business, as we shared with you in March. But all in, I think we'll see moderation off of this 19% level in the first quarter. But net-net, still a very good profitability growth year for GE Aerospace.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe just my question would be around free cash flow. Should we expect sort of second quarter to be around breakeven-ish and common with prior years? And then sort of 2 specific drivers I was curious about. One was that $500 million AD&A headwind. I saw it was a source in Q1. How do you see that playing out the balance of the year? And just sort of testing your conviction level in that wind down payments, $3 billion to $4 billion free cash tailwind you talked about back at Q1. Just sort of how you see that and the AD&A playing out from here over the balance of the year and what that Q2 free cash might be?
Carolina Happe:
Julian, let me take that. So if we look at the second quarter, basically, we are expecting to build on the strong first quarter, so see the similar dynamics coming through in the second quarter. And that starts with our strong orders leading to high single-digit growth. If we look at our profit, EPS, we expect it to be $0.40 to $0.50. And again, sequential volume growth, especially from aerospace strength, but also the gas seasonal outages. We would expect price to continue to outpace inflation, continue to see productivity come through. But we do expect some mixed pressure that Larry was mentioning from the big ramps in LEAP and Haliade-X. So if you look at it little bit business by business, so for aerospace, that's why we would expect the margin rate to be lower sequentially and contract because of that high equipment growth. For renewables, as I mentioned, we expect losses to be similar in the second quarter to the first. And for Power, we expect revenue and profit to be slightly down year-over-year, really with the second half loaded outage and aero derivatives shipments. And that brings me then to the free cash flow. So we expect free cash flow to be around breakeven. And it's a combination of the earnings growth and some positive working capital, but then offset by the AD&A and higher tax payments. So if you look at it sort of first half this year compared to first half last year, it's about $1 billion of improvement in the first half. And you asked sort of sequentially quarter-by-quarter. I would say, from the free cash flow, you also have to remember the size of revenue in Q4 that we collected in Q1. And now in Q2, we will be collecting on a lower revenue number from the first quarter. So that's why there's a bit of pressure there. You also asked about AD&A. So AD&A was slightly positive in the first quarter. But we expect that to be negative $0.5 billion for the full year, so basically shifting to the right. And when it comes to wind, you asked about the $3 billion to $4 billion of orders. I would say it's still early in the year. And we have strong relationships with our customers, but those are large and complex orders. And exactly when they convert to orders, that can shift a bit through the quarters.
Larry Culp:
Julian, I would just add that with respect to the orders and win in North America, I think we feel as optimistic as we did back in March in frequent contact with the administration. They're well along in the work that they're doing to release the final guidance. We expect to see that this quarter. And I think we said in March, every week matters here. So the sooner businesses, customers have certainty, the better. But we're quite optimistic.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.
Seth Seifman:
So wanted to follow up on the commercial aftermarket and kind of the strength in the first quarter and the moderation that's implied through the remainder of the year. It seems like channels have been running in kind of the 3.5 to 3.7 range the past 3 quarters. Seasonally, we probably see an uptick in the second quarter, which would imply another quarter of very healthy growth kind of above the guidance range for aftermarket for the year. And so is there anything that really gives you pause about the second half of the year? And how are you thinking about where -- what the upside might be to that aftermarket forecast?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think you're right, Seth, in terms of just the strength in the momentum that we see here, right? I mean services for a full year we think will be up high teens to 20%. So it's just -- it couldn't be more robust. And that's pretty well balanced, both in terms of shop visits, spares and the like. And I'd say that we see that kind of broadly across the portfolio from a geographic perspective as well. We're not unmindful that there is some discussion around how long the flying public will indeed fly at this pace. We'll see how that plays out. But you've heard from a number of the airlines already this earnings cycle where the CEOs, I think, are uniformly bullish. Not only here, but in Europe. If any of that edge came off, as you know, we're not necessarily tied to ticket prices or load factors. We're tied most directly to departures. That's a good structural aspect of our business. But we do know we get into some tougher comps as we move into the second half of this year. So we still expect to have a robust top line, and that will bring with it the margin and cash flows that we've talked about already. But net-net, we feel very good about the prospects. Just on the margin, again, very pleased with the first quarter performance, but we do know that we're going to see more mix pressure both given the equipment growth versus services and within equipment given the LEAP ramp in addition to some of the lagging inflationary pressures and the investments that we are and we want to make in the business. But net-net, this is going to be a very good year for GE Aerospace from a profit perspective with the dollars at the midpoint, up 15% year-over-year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Could you just give us an update, Larry, on what milestones you need to see to make sure GE is on track for Vernova separation in early '24? Obviously, you saw strong growth in Onshore orders. How much does better U.S. onshore utilization help you as you move forward? And you mentioned similar profitability in Q2 in renewables versus Q1. What's your line of sight toward that decent step-up in earnings past Q2? And maybe give us a little more color on your focus on improving product quality and the cost-out program you have at this point.
Larry Culp:
Andy, I think you've really outlined the answer to your question in many ways, right? We know it won't be about the balance sheet. We know it won't be the internal preparation that will pace when we spin GE Vernova. It will really be a function of business performance. And again, I think we're really encouraged by what we've seen the last couple of quarters, not only in terms of the sequential progress, but the team's ability to deliver on those commitments. We know we've got a lot of work to do here in the second quarter, in the second half to continue the progress in Onshore Wind. But between the prospect of better volumes, again, better pricing, combining with those volumes and all of the work that we've done to improve the cost structure, I think sets us up for that positive year in '24. Really excited about what we're seeing at Grid. We've talked about the big orders out of Europe a couple of times here. Go at that mask the underlying improvements, both in terms of price and costs broadly across the Grid portfolio. They'll be modestly profitable this year. And those are really the 2 big businesses within renewables. And that sets us up to work through some of these growing pains in Offshore to position Vernova to go in '24. You asked about the quality efforts at Onshore Wind. The list continues to be fundamentally a static list. I think we knocked off 4 or 5 of those items this quarter. We're about 20% of the way through that body of work. We'll probably get to roughly half of that by the end of the year. We've got some more challenging, more time consuming issues to knock off the list later this year. But again, I think the team is working to plan and doing all we can to help customers in that regard. And as we help customers, we help ourselves. So again, I think we are on track. A lot of work to do. But I think we're optimistic that, that work will be done and GE Vernova will be a stand-alone independent investment-grade industry leader in the energy transition sometime early next year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
I want to stick with renewables, if we can. And could you give some specifics on how selectivity is working today? I mean you had some -- especially with regard to what was booked and just how that reflects disciplined underwriting and so forth?
Larry Culp:
Deane, I would highlight 2 forms of selectivity. One is what you might think of as simply geographic. Credit to Scott and the team for being willing to say no or yes, largely on constructive terms, the opportunities outside of our core markets in the U.S. and in Europe. I think one of the challenges early on, and it's not unique to GE Vernova. It's not unique to any evolving industry. We, at times, I think, went after business with the best of intentions and didn't get paid for the risks that we were taking, signed up to probably do things that in hindsight we shouldn't have. So what you see or what you here's referred to with our selectivity effort is just to be more discriminating, more targeted in the geographic markets, let alone the applications that we'll pursue. That's one. I'd say, secondly, as the market shifts here rapidly from abundance to scarcity, we really have a finite amount of capacity in the short to medium term to sell. And I think here again, the credit to the team we're really just being as smart as we can about making sure that we're fully and fairly compensated for the technology that we bring and the solutions that we offer. And it's the 2 of those combined that you're beginning to see help the margin profile in Onshore Wind that will play out even more so as the IRA kicks in and we see more volume come through the P&L, let alone the change to the cost structure that I mentioned earlier. That's -- I hope that gives you a full answer, but that's how we're going about this day in, day out, opportunity by opportunity.
Carolina Happe:
And we're also following up very clearly on not only what the margins are in the P&L, but also in orders and even in tech select and a much sort of stricter strike zones for that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
I just want to follow up on that last question on pricing in particular. I guess if you look at order dollars that you printed versus gigawatt orders or unit orders, seems like a healthy gap in there. I would imagine most of that is price, although maybe some mix as well. At the same time, I guess, we're not fully clarified from the IRS on some of this rule-making language. Is price today sort of at the run rate you would expect? Or are there other dynamics that maybe emerge here with more clarity about sources of production and domicile and some of those elements?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think that we will continue to see this market evolve. Again, the White House, the administration has not issued the final guidance. They are well along. We've had a number of opportunities, as others have, to share our views both on the substance and the timing of the key provisions. I think we'll see that play out here this quarter. And in turn, customers will react to that, right? They have acted in anticipation. But when the rules are set and the guidelines are clear being around the domestic content rules, the manufacturing credits and the like, I think you'll see things pick up. What I was talking about a moment ago with Deane with respect to how we think about selectivity and price, we'll continue to evolve as well. So I don't -- in the spirit of Kaizen, it continues to improve. And I wouldn't say that we're somehow at a peak. We'll continue to make sure we push our cost structure as best we can and are fairly compensated for the value that we create. That pretty much is the setup here and in turn, why we think we have the path not only to profitability, but far better margins than you've seen in this business the last couple of years.
Carolina Happe:
Yes. And if you think about it, we're talking about sort of tech selected orders. It will take, well, about 1 year before you see it in the P&L. So of course, that delta between price and cost in the P&L will take a little longer to come through because of the cycle.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Chris Snyder with UBS.
Christopher Snyder:
I wanted to follow up on some of the prior comments on aviation top line. So the segment grew another like mid-20% organic in Q1. The guide implies about low teens by my math for the rest of the year. And I certainly appreciate the comps get tougher, but I was hoping you could provide some color on how we should expect the cadence of that organic growth deceleration over the rest of the year. And then longer term, I would appreciate any views or color on how far the segment is from seeing organic growth compress back to the mid- to high single-digit rate called out at the Investor Day for the long term.
Larry Culp:
Well, again, I think as we look at the full year here, we would expect services to continue to grow. We think services will still be up high teens to 20% all in for the year, but we'll see equipment grow more rapidly, primarily on the back of the LEAP ramp and Defense shipments improving, right? We were down 2% in the first quarter. We still expect, once we clear a number of these delivery issues, that we should be up high single digits in Defense. And that's really what I think you'll see through the course of the year. Keep in mind, we've got the tougher comps in services coming in, in the back half, particularly given the nature of the sequential ramp here. But all in, we've got a lot to do to deliver on those numbers, and those numbers don't assume that we fully clear our backlog or past due backlogs, either. So I wouldn't want to commit to that upside. But certainly, we're working as hard as we can within our own facilities and with our suppliers to deliver as much as we possibly can. In terms of when demand normalizes, that's probably a question for another day. Again, given the OE ramp, given the services ramp back -- on the back of what we're seeing broadly with respect to departures, we're optimistic about not only this year, but the near term. I think we're on the verge of no longer talking about where we are, vis-a-vis, 2019. That will be exciting, right? We can get to a point where we're just talking about year-over-year growth.
Scott Strazik:
Yes. And I would just add, Chris, just to your specific cadence numbers, just look at the comps, third quarter, fourth quarter steps down pretty considerably, particularly in the fourth quarter just based on that comp math, and we can talk about it later.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie:
So just going back to renewables for a second. The orders, the wind turbine orders were up 75%. I know up until now, I know Scott's been pretty reluctant to book any Offshore projects. I'm curious whether this includes any new offshore units. And then secondly, on Onshore Wind. Just given the bookings so far this year, I'm curious like what's the expectation for Onshore Wind profitability exiting the year? Can you turn a profit in Onshore Wind exiting 2023?
Carolina Happe:
So if we start with your question on orders. So Offshore Wind, we didn't have orders in the quarter as expected, and that was exactly what Scott was talking to. When it comes to Onshore Wind, we saw really strong bookings, and we mentioned that in the beginning of the call. So it was great to see tripling of Onshore Wind orders compared to last year. And that's mainly North America equipment apps, so basically IRA driven and we saw good progress coming through from that. So the area is the game changer we said it would be, and we're starting to see it come through. So if you combine then the growth on the top line as well as the self-help actions that Larry mentioned, where we expect to be done with about half of those when we exit the year. And put on top of that, the pricing work that we're doing as well as continuing cost out, we do expect to see the year for Onshore Wind when it comes to profitability or in this case, a reduction of losses to be a positive step through the quarters. I would say, especially in the second half because in the first half, we still have rather low U.S. orders that we are delivering on. So the mix is a bit heavy in the first half. So good improvement in the second half. And that is also the trajectory that will take us to significantly better results and low single-digit plus in 2024 when it comes to profit.
Steven Winoker:
Joe, thanks. Liz, we have time for -- let's make time for 1 last question. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna with Cowen.
Gautam Khanna:
I was wondering if you could elaborate on supply chain and aerospace, what the pacing items still are? And if you have any metrics around pace of improvement? We've seen in Q1 versus maybe Q4 or late last year anyway, second half of last year.
Larry Culp:
Well, again, I think this is a daily, weekly effort where we're encouraged by some of our leading indicators, I'd point to LEAP probably. That's the platform that garners the largest portion of our attention today, right, with deliveries up 50%, sequentially up 10%. And that's probably just as important a number as we think about how we deliver 1,700 units this year as we shared in March. We are making progress. I think if you look at supplier on-time delivery as one example, if you look at material inputs being another, just our ability to hit our targets on a weekly basis internally, I see signs of progress, right? I sit with Russell and his team. We go through this on a regular basis. I'm encouraged by the intensity of the daily management that we're bringing not only to our own operations, but with our suppliers. I had an opportunity to walk a number of our own shops and do the same with some of our suppliers in the first quarter and to see how we're having that impact. But it's still challenging. I don't want to, in any way, suggest otherwise. But I'm encouraged by what we're doing. I think we've learned a lot in the first quarter from our efforts in and around LEAP that we are porting to our other product lines. That will be particularly important in Defense. You saw that we cleared some of what we left behind in March and early April. But that said, there's a lot around that daily management intensity and discipline we've seen in LEAP that we need to make sure as part of our Defense business and those core facilities through the rest of this year to deliver on that high single-digit number.
Steven Winoker:
Great. Larry, any final comments?
Larry Culp:
Steve, that went by quickly. Well, just to close, obviously, an encouraging start to 2023. Our plans to stand up GE Aerospace and GE Vernova as 2 leading independent companies are advancing. We appreciate your time today, your interest in GE and your investment in our company. And again, we hope to see many of you at the Paris Air Show in June for our GE Aerospace presentation. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] My name is Liz and I will be your conference coordinator today. If you experience issues with the webcast slides refreshing or there appears to be delays in the slide advancement, please hit F5 on your keyboard to refresh. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE’s fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. I am joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Keep in mind that some of the statements we are making are forward-looking and based in our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes. As a reminder, GE completed the separation of our healthcare business this month. GE Healthcare will report separately on January 30. So while included in our 2022 results, we are focusing today’s commentary primarily on GE Aerospace and GE Vernova, our portfolio of energy businesses. Our remarks will also be simpler and shorter today, reflecting the company we are now and we will move more quickly to Q&A. I will now hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you and good morning everyone. 2022 marked the beginning of a new era for GE, following 4 years of strategic and operational transformation. We successfully separated GE Healthcare in a spin-off, distributing approximately 80% to GE shareholders on January 3. We strengthened our foundation, retiring an additional $11 billion of debt, bringing our total debt reduction over $100 billion since 2018. We continue to improve our operations, further embedding lean and decentralization to better serve our customers. And today, excluding GE Healthcare Services, which are both higher margin and more resilient, represented even larger part of our portfolio about 60% of revenues and 85% of our backlog. We finished the year strong, delivering revenue growth, margin expansion and better cash generation. GE Aerospace led the way as we executed on an unprecedented ramp. Within GE Vernova, power delivered with continued stability at gas and we took significant actions to position renewable energy for future profitability. External catalysts like U.S. climate legislation and the European focus on accelerating electrification are increasing investment in new decarbonization technologies. This progress has positioned us to create industry leading investment-grade independent public companies. Thanks to our team’s high-quality work, our plans to launch GE Vernova and GE Aerospace are progressing well. We are filling key leadership positions for both and we are preparing for two standalone businesses. We will share more details with you, including our ongoing progress and timeline for the planned GE Vernova spin at our investor conference in March. I could not be more proud of how the GE team managed through a challenging external environment to deliver for our customers and partners in 2022, my thanks to everyone. And before I turn the call over to Carolina, a moment of reflection. Just two weeks ago, I, along with many of our leadership team attended a memorial service for our exemplary GE Board member and former U.S. Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter. Ash was a remarkable leader, incredibly humble and clear headed. We miss him and his stage counsel. Now, Carolina will take you through our results.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks, Larry. Turning to Slide 3, I will speak to the key drivers of our performance. I will do it on an organic basis and including GE Healthcare. In the fourth quarter, top line momentum continued as orders grew significantly across all segments. Revenue was up 11%, with services up 13%. By segment, revenue at Aerospace, Power and Healthcare was up double-digits, driven by market demand, price realization and improving delivery. This was partially offset by renewables largely due to lower volume resulting from U.S. PTC lapse and our heightened commercial selectivity. Adjusted margin expanded 290 basis points. Power was particularly robust, offsetting renewables. Overall, our price and cost-out actions outpaced inflation. Revenue and profit growth resulted in over 50% EPS growth. Free cash flow was $4.3 billion, primarily driven by strong earnings and improving working capital. All accounts were a source of cash, except receivables, which as expected, was a use from revenue growth. Moving to the full year, orders were up 7%, with 22% growth in Aerospace and 13% growth in Power. Total services orders were up 12% supporting profitable growth in 2023. Revenue was up 6%, largely driven again by Aerospace, up 23%. More broadly, higher margin services were up double-digits, while total equipment revenue decreased 4%. Collectively, supply chain headwinds and macro pressures impacted our performance by about 4 points. Importantly, margins, EPS and free cash flow, all significantly improved year-over-year and finished in line or above the most recent outlook we shared in October. Adjusted margin expanded 160 basis points led by Aerospace and Power. Robust services growth, pricing has almost $1.5 billion of cost out actions drove improvement. This was partially offset by inflationary pressures especially at our shorter cycle businesses and pressure from renewables. Operating profit growth and debt reduction drove EPS up more than 50% for the full year. Free cash flow was $4.8 billion, up over $2 billion or over 80% improvement, driven by earnings and reduced debt. In 2022, working capital was a source of cash as accounts payable, progress collections and contract assets all contributed to the solid performance. Now, a moment on corporate. In 2021, we ended the year with $1.2 billion of costs. We continued to reduce cost in 2022, including a few hundred million dollars of market-driven favorability. We now have a smaller, linear cost structure. And in 2023, we expect costs of about $600 million or roughly half of the 2021 sales line. Free cash flow, we expect to improve significantly given our progress with debt reduction and lower costs. We continue to execute our restructuring plans and reduce our cost structure post the healthcare spin, setting up fit-for-purpose, standalone structures for GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Stepping back, we are encouraged by our improved volume and pricing and our significant cost-out actions exiting the quarter. This will help us drive continued growth in 2023. Now back to you, Larry, to discuss our businesses.
Larry Culp:
Carolina, thank you. Starting with Aerospace, I am 6 months in leading this business and my conviction is even higher today that we have a premier franchise with highly differentiated product and technology positions and leading positions in attractive commercial and military sectors. Entering 2022, our priority was delivering on the significant growth across both engines and services, where stability and predictability are critically important for our customers. This starts with the right team. We have a balance of unparalleled experience and fresh perspective with nearly half our leaders new to their roles this year. We are also driving two major operational changes. First is accelerating our progress with Lean to improve operating rigor and delivery. Take supply chain, where we have seen real improvements with more to come. Our team in Terre Haute produces lead turbine center frames and started ‘22 with about 50 pieces delinquent. Working through multiple kaizens, implementing flows, standard work and daily management, the team’s Lean actions increased output over 20% and improved productivity by about 10%. And today, they are on schedule. With our 2023 demand, we will need to continue to use Lean in this way to deliver for our customers. The second is decentralization. For example, in our commercial engines business, we are increasingly running our product lines as their own P&Ls, in line with how our customers work with us, more cross-functional collaboration in real time closer to the customer helps make us better. Turning to the quarter, both orders and revenue were up over 20%. Equipment orders were robust, now with almost 10,000 LEAP engines in backlog. Commercial services and equipment revenue grew about 30% and military revenue was up about 20%. And services internal shop visits were up 25% and external part sales were up more than 20%. In equipment, commercial units were up nearly 30% with LEAP units, up almost 50%. Looking sequentially, both internal shop visits and commercial units were about flat, but military units were up 10%. While material availability continues to be a challenge, our output across engines and services, we are using our Lean tools to help accelerate sequential improvement, a key for us this year. Fourth quarter margins were above 18%, slightly better than we expected, although down year-over-year. Higher volume and price were more than offset by negative mix driven by increased commercial equipment shipments, continued investment to support the business growth and other cost pressures. While still net price cost positive, we expect inflation will continue to be challenging in 2023. For the year, revenue was up 23%, driven by commercial sales with internal shop visits up over 20%. Profitability and cash were solid. Margins were 18.3%, up 440 basis points year-over-year. Services growth and positive price costs more than offset the impact of increased investments and negative engine mix from higher LEAP deliveries. Free cash flow of $4.9 billion was driven by earnings and working capital. As we shared last quarter, total in-year AD&A flow came in close to zero versus last year, $0.5 billion of pressure. Looking ahead today, GE and CFM departures are close to 90% of ‘19 levels and we expect to be back to ‘19 levels later this year. In ‘23, internal shop visits are expected to grow about 20% and external spare part sales are expected to increase. With commercial engines growing at about 20% and services at high-teens to about 20% plus military growing at a high single-digit rate, we expect total aerospace revenue to be in the mid to high-teens and we expect LEAP engine deliveries to grow about 50% in ‘23. We also expect to deliver profit of $5.3 billion to $5.7 billion and higher free cash flow. Aligned to current airframe or aircraft delivery schedules, AD&A is expected to be about $0.5 billion outflow in 2023. We are laser-focused on supporting our airframers, airlines and lessors as they ramp post pandemic. Today, that means providing stability and predictability for our customers keeping our current fleet flying and growing our new fleet, all the while continuing to invest in technologies that will define the future of flight. Notably, we are encouraged by the momentum at military with our next-generation technology, including the XA100 engine for the F-35. The XA100 offers cutting-edge capabilities needed to ensure continued U.S. air superiority. The Adaptive Engine Transition Program received a strong show of support recently from nearly 50 bipartisan members of Congress who wrote in support of continuing the program, which includes our engine with $286 million of funding included in the 2023 Omnibus Appropriations bill. Overall, GE Aerospace is an exceptional franchise with a bright future as the standalone industry leader. Turning to the GE Vernova portfolio, power delivered a solid performance this year and we are making real progress running a similar strategy at renewables. While the demand dropped due to the PTC lapse significantly impacted our renewables results in 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act is a real game changer for us and the industry going forward. In fact, we began to see a rebound in demand this quarter, with renewables orders up 7%. Onshore orders in North America more than doubled a very encouraging sign. But unlocking the full potential of the IRA will hinge on how quickly the administration moves through implementation. Meanwhile, lower volumes and inflationary pressures continue to weigh on our performance. Fourth quarter revenue was down 13% due to onshore and margins contracted as inflation and lower volumes offset pricing and productivity gains. Full year free cash flow declined over $0.5 billion due to lower earnings. So, while we await clarity on the IRA rules, Scott and the team are controlling the controllable, taking action and we saw progress in that regard this quarter. Grid, a business that lost close to $400 million in 2021 was profitable for the first quarter since 2018, reflecting our restructuring and selectivity efforts. Orders also grew significantly. At onshore, we are executing a restructuring with our headcount decreasing almost 20% sequentially, which will deliver savings in 2023. Our strategic sourcing actions that are onshore and our focus on reducing product variance will improve product costs despite continued inflationary pressures. Across the businesses, orders and sales pricing continue to improve with our selectivity strategy yielding a more profitable backlog and pipeline. Service orders and revenues, excluding repower, grew. There is certainly more work to do and the next 6 months will remain challenging, but we are acting with urgency. In 2023, we expect mid single-digit growth, significantly better profit and flat to improving free cash flow. Taking it by the businesses. Onshore, we expect more than 50% orders growth in North America this year. And based on the orders we have in hand, we are confident of delivering over 2,000 units globally with North American volume more than doubling in the second half versus the first half of the year. We also expect a significant step up in profit driven by lower warranty and related reserves, better price and restructuring benefits. With this significant orders growth comes roughly $3 billion to $4 billion of cash down payments this year. This includes $0.5 billion of cash linked to large tech selects we have won, which we expect to convert to orders later this year. These are strong customer commitments, but given the project size and complexity, timing could shift somewhat across quarters. In offshore, we expect to more than double revenue from about $0.5 billion in 2022. However, our margins on the first tranche of Haliade-X projects will be challenging between typical new product margins and inflation resulting in rising losses. Associated with the delivery growth and limited down payments, we also expect cash will be significantly pressured in 2023 in offshore, mostly a timing dynamic. And at Grid, given our robust orders growth, we expect continued growth. The actions we’ve taken on price are expected to offset inflation pressures, and we continue to make progress, including our small – our smaller cost structure and productivity. Taken together, this will enable grid to deliver a modestly profitable year in 2023. Overall, I’m confident we’re seeing operating improvements throughout the year in renewables and key external catalysts like the IRA will help improve our longer-term economic profile here. Moving to Power. We’ve significantly improved power is demonstrated by our continued profit and cash growth. We’re well positioned for continued services growth with our expanded HA fleet. To date, we’ve now shipped 110 HAs with roughly 80 units COD, providing a reliable source of cash growth in the future as our highest utilization assets in the fleet. Looking at the quarter, power demand remained robust. Orders grew in all businesses and revenue was up double digits, largely driven by continued aero derivative momentum at Gas Power. Services were also solid with orders and revenue up again driven by gas transactional services. Margins expanded over 700 basis points driven by significant gas volume, favorable price cost and productivity gains. Similar to Aerospace, we expect inflation will remain challenging through 2023. Moving to the full year, orders were up double digits, but importantly, we’re not taking our eye off selectivity with disciplined underwriting. In line with our outlook, revenue was up low single digits led by services. Margins expanded 300 basis points, enabling power to achieve high single-digit margin for the year, and our free cash flow improved significantly across both gas and steam. At gas service, billings were strong as fleet utilization grew low single digits. Looking to 2023 for Power, we expect low single-digit revenue growth driven by Gas Power services. Equipment revenue will grow as we deliver more HAs despite the new build wind down at team, and we anticipate [Technical Difficulty] year-over-year. At gas, both equipment and services volume as well as productivity gains and price should help offset rising inflation pressure. We expect lower free cash flow year-over-year, continued earnings growth and strong services collections are offset by disbursements, but we expect free cash flow conversion to remain solid. Stepping back, our existing technologies in the GE Vernova portfolio will play an important role in the energy transition. It’s the strategic imperative to electrify and decarbonize the world is a challenge these businesses with their vast installed bases were made to meet. Let’s turn now to the overall GE outlook for 2023. We’re expecting organic revenue growth in the high single-digit range, $1.60 to $2 for adjusted EPS, which includes about $4.2 billion to $4.8 billion of adjusted profit and a range of $3.4 billion to $4.2 billion for free cash flow. Underpinning this outlook is a higher services concentration in our portfolio as well as our confidence in the strength of GE Aerospace is the worldwide commercial aviation industry, airlines and airframers like continues its post-pandemic recovery. We also anticipate military revenue growth, thus yielding significant profit growth for GE Aerospace in ‘23. For GE Vernova, we expect low to mid-single-digit growth and profit of negative $600 million to negative $200 million, including improvement at both businesses. On cash, we expect flat to slight improvement. This is driven largely by better profitability and planned down payments in onshore where timing could shift across quarters with some offset from offshore increasing deliveries. Across GE, we expect continued operational improvements to deliver higher earnings and improved working capital management. In turn, this will help us drive higher free cash flow for GE in ‘23. We are looking forward to sharing more during our March 9 Investor Conference at GE Aerospace in Cincinnati by then, hopefully, home of the Super Bowl Champion Bangs, where you’ll hear more detail from our leadership teams about both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Please come to see us. To close on Slide 8, I hope you see what I see
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Larry. [Operator Instructions] We ask that you please save any GE Healthcare questions until their earnings call next week. Liz, can you please open the line?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Good morning, everybody, and congrats on executing the spin.
Larry Culp:
Thanks, Joe. Thank you.
Joe Ritchie:
Yes. So my question is really going to be focused on this free cash flow bridge for 2023. And specifically on the segments, I’m curious you talked about Aviation free cash flow being up versus 22%. I know that you threw out the $500 million impact in AD&A, but did the rest of GE Aviation free cash flow grow consistently with earnings in 2023? And then my kind of second question on the segment is just around renewables. And what are you anticipating for the large payments in the second half of the year and what impact that has to the free cash flow in 2023? Thank you.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Okay, Joe. So a couple of questions. So let me start with the free cash flow guide for 2023 for the whole company. So if we look at our 2022 numbers that we just printed 4.8%. New jumping house point, excluding healthcare, is $3.1 billion. So basically, we are assuming that the midpoint of our guide, we will improve free cash flow with about $700 million. And the majority of that comes from growing of profit. Midpoint is about $1.3 billion of improvement in op profit. You add to that lower interest, a couple of hundred million of tailwinds and then some working capital improvement despite the high single-digit growth. A couple of things that are partially offsetting that, the headwinds for AD&A that you mentioned, about $0.5 billion, we have a restructuring cash out as well as higher cash tax since we made more money. So taking all together, we expect earnings to be the biggest driver of the improvement. We continue to benefit from our working capital management. And overall, that’s what leaves us confident in our total free cash flow guide. You also asked about the segments specifically and on aerospace. So if you look at aerospace, clearly, the improvement in profit is a big driver in aerospace improved free cash flow. When it comes to working capital, mind you, what Larry said about the really strong growth that we’re expecting to see. So of course, working capital will be pressured receivables and also partly inventory from that kind of growth. But we do expect that the combination of profit growth, working capital management will more than offset the AD&A headwind of $0.5 billion. So we will improve cash also for aerospace. And then if you look at the Vernova businesses, as Larry said, we basically expect it to be flat to slightly improving on cash as well. And here, you have power would be slightly down where we expect renewables to improve.
Larry Culp:
Down payments, Joe that you were asking about, I think we said in our formal remarks that should be in the $3 billion to $4 billion range. Some of those are four orders as they progress and orders to come, many of which we have been selected for. But again, the timing here until the finalizes the rules, the tax rules for developers could have a little bit of movement, and that’s what we were trying to flag in the formal remarks. So it will be back loaded in that regard, but we will have much greater linearity in aerospace as Carolina suggested.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Larry just wanted to follow-up here on renewables. It looks like there is some profit improvement, not maybe all the way back to what folks were perhaps expecting. Just wondering if you could parse what’s getting better like selectivity or grid or price cost versus what’s still kind of a more material headwind this year?
Larry Culp:
Josh, good morning. No, I think if you look at renewables, we think profitability will be significantly better. If I break it down, at grid, we’re really encouraged by the improvements the team has put in place. I think that’s what yielded the profitable quarter here in the fourth, but more importantly, sets them up to be profitable in 2023, right? This is a business that people had given up on a few years ago. And particularly in Europe, we’ve seen tremendous interest really across the grid portfolio in line with this accelerated electrification that’s underway. So I think that’s all good and they begin to contribute in the new year. I think from an onshore perspective, a little to Joe’s question a moment ago on cash, the same thing applies to profitability. I think the first half is going to continue to be challenged much in the way that 2022 has. But as we work our way through the year, we would expect to see volume. We will see higher quality volume as a function of that selectivity, and we can really see better pricing in our order book compared to our revenues and our test selects compared to our orders and in our pipeline. We’ve talked about that before. I think that really is a sign that the industry is transitioning in anticipation of the IRA to one where volumes may be – capacity may be challenged by demand, and that will be good overall. But there is a whole host of things that we need to do operationally. I think we talked in the last call about improving our producibility and the robustness of what we do in manufacturing. At the same time, we have taken some structural cost actions really the only place in GE where that’s the case with nearly 2,000 of our associates in transition here as we look to get the renewables business onshore in particular, in better shape for what lies ahead. And then for offshore, because we aren’t going to double revenue, we’re going to need to recognize the losses that go with the Haliade-X early on here. So grid much better, onshore wind and transition, a bit of a timing dynamic with offshore, and you put that together, and that’s really what gives you the renewables guide for ‘23.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Just wanted to ask about cash flow sort of through the year and also the uses of your cash, that’s something maybe refreshing to talk about for the first time in a few years, but on the cash flow through the year, when we think about the seasonality, I think you had sort of free cash was minus $900 million first quarter a year ago. How do you see the sort of the cash flow moving this year? It sounds like renewables may be a very big headwind in the first half and then swings in the second. So any color on the GE firm-wide free cash as we go through the year? And then maybe more for Larry, sort of thoughts on capital deployment there is starting to be some optionality now for GE partly because of the improving cash flow. It’s mostly been debt reduction understandably for a few years, but maybe just help us understand your priorities on cash use?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Julian, let me take the first part of that question on seasonality and on how we see that happening through the year in 2023. Maybe let me just start with the first quarter. We are expecting an EPS of $0.10 to $0.15 in the first quarter. So actually better linearity than we’ve seen before in 2022. On cash, we still expect cash to be negative also in the first quarter. The new jumping off point is a negative 1.2. So we expect it to be significantly better than that, but still negative as is typical for our seasonality. And seasonality, in general, I would say we don’t expect material changes to our seasonality. We are still sort of heavy second half loaded both on revenue and profit and on cash, actually even more back-end loaded now that we are excluding healthcare. So expect lower volume in the first half and ramping in the second half. sort of renewables sequentially growing through the year – sorry, aerospace sequentially growing through the year, renewables significant for the first half to second half ramp and power more the typical outage seasonality where you’d see sort of large 2Q and even larger 4Q and we also have equipment deliveries in the second half. But I would finish by saying that improving operational linearity is a key priority for us and clearly more to do.
Larry Culp:
Julian, I would say with respect to capital allocation, you’re right. The boardroom conversations are fundamentally different than they were just a few years ago, right? We’ve now reduced our debt loans by $100 billion. Really pleased with the way healthcare is and has traded here. You can look at that effectively is a $30 billion dividend to shareholders. So we have a lot of options. And I would say all options are on the table. However, job one remains the completion of what we announced, the transformation back in November of ‘21, right. We want to make sure more than anything that we are setting up both aerospace and Vernova in the way that we described them. So, as we work through a number of, if you will, more tactical considerations, that overarching strategic objective will continue to be foremost in mind, but no doubt about it. It’s a different conversation and it’s a much more enjoyable conversation to have than where we were back in ‘18 and ‘19.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Hi guys. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Andrew.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Just a couple of questions, I think on Vernova, First, I think there is a lot of sort of talk in the industry about – on wind to structurally change the contract, right, because overall industry is just not in particularly good shape. So, question one, where are we in conversations with large customers who seem to want more capacity, yet sort of the contract terms are not really helping the industry make any money? Where are we in structurally renegotiating the contract structure? And I hand the second question just on power overall, more traditional power, but focus is on profit growth, not revenue growth. What are the key levers you are focused in ‘23, guidance seems to suggest modest margin expansion? Are there any headwinds in gas and services that you are facing in ‘23? Thank you.
Larry Culp:
Andrew, I will take the first part of that. Carolina, perhaps can jump in on the second part. I would say that you see, I think in the press more discussion offshore than you do onshore relative to renegotiation given that some of the PPAs that are in place in the wake of the inflation that has run over every part of our economy makes those more challenging arrangements. We are just really starting in our offshore business. So, we see a little bit of that, but frankly, not a lot given our relatively small position. I think the way you see those dynamics playing out for us, again, in the wake of the IRA in particular here in the U.S. is that customers really want what we refer to as workhorse products. I think the technical specmanship, the arms race is a thing that is quickly – a dynamic that’s quickly fading here and customers want to make sure that they know they can get units onshore in particular, over the next several years that they can count on, both in terms of performance and delivery. And I think that, in turn is leading not to renegotiations. That’s not the nature of the business. But as we look at new business, right, the reason we are seeing better pricing. I think that the industry is going to need to work it, work through that so that there will be a new equilibrium the carats offered by the IRA are incredibly helpful in that regard, at least we anticipate that they will be once the IRS rules are finalized. And that in turn, is why I think you will see us step up in volume over the next several years and presumably convert these better – sold price levels into real margins and real cash.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
To the power, I have to just start by saying looking at where we landed the year and what the team delivered, $1.2 billion of profit and 7.5% of op margin, really getting to high-single digits, that’s quite an achievement. And building on that for 2023, for power, we have a couple of positives. We have more CSA outages. We talked about ‘22 being a low-CSA outage year, ‘23 will be higher CSA outage year, so that’s good. We also have aeroderivatives growing. But we do expect to have a tough mix equation with equipment deliveries as well as inflation. So, price cost for power, having had a big price impact in 2022 when you lap that in 2023, being pressured by the inflation coming through in the P&L being such a long-cycle business. So, overall, we expect earnings growth and on the cash side, also strong services collections, but offset by distribution, so down slightly on the cash side, but still a very high cash conversion number.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Can you hear me?
Larry Culp:
We can. Go ahead, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Hi. Good morning. Just went – my line just went there. First of all, thanks for all the details. We have covered a lot so far. I did want to go back to the offshore losses and cash outflow in ‘23. Just wondering how do you see that curve developing? I don’t know if you want to quantify it in ‘23 in terms of the headwinds facing. But how do you see that progressing in ‘24 or ‘25? And maybe just given the magnitude of the losses in ‘23 for renewables in total, are we still confident in the bridge back to ‘24 profit?
Larry Culp:
Nigel, I don’t know if we got all of that. Let me speak to the offshore dynamic. I think what we are going to see in ‘23 is pressure. We talked a little bit earlier about the doubling of revenue, the dynamics with the Haliade-X being new and how that rev rec will lead to op profit pressure. From a cash dynamic, we will also see disbursements as those projects move forward. We should see some milestone payments, some of which will be back-end loaded as well. And they too have a little bit of timing variability around them. We need to execute in order to see that in ‘23 as opposed to ‘24. But as we look forward, I think what we have gotten from customers is a lot of good feedback relative to where we go next with the evolution of the Haliade-X. And that’s where our product teams and our engineering teams are focused. I think the timing of when we see the next tranche of orders is such that it’s going to be potentially more a ‘24 than a late ‘23 dynamic. And that too will create some of that pressure that is not atypical for a business that is effectively in startup mode. I wish it were otherwise, but again, I think given what we are seeing in grid and what we should see in onshore once we have clarity with the IRA, that will help buffet us in many respects. But when you look at Vernova overall, for that free cash flat to slightly improving guide, that’s really what we are referring to. I think with respect to no change in expectation, right. Again, if we get the volume that I think everyone anticipates coming here in the North American market, our best market, where we are seeing healthier pricing, coupled with better execution from a manufacturing, from a cost perspective, grid being profitable and onshore or offshore rather coming along, we should do that in ‘24. We need to do that next year.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
And when you see that cash – that profit will then turn into cash and then also the timing that we have talked about on working capital with the progress down payments and more of that happening in 2024.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Sprague:
Hi. Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Alright. Good morning. Just sort of a multi-parter for me, if I could, I am sorry. But just first on renewables. I just do want to confirm that the free cash flow guide includes the expectation of this $3 billion to $4 billion of payments. But my larger question is really how we think about normal conversion going forward, kind of the implied free cash flow conversion on the guide here today for ‘23 is 180%, 190%, 200% or so relative to net income, right? So, how do we expect that to normalize over time? And maybe you could provide just a little bit more color on that bridge from net income to free cash flow. Carolina, you started walking us through the delta a little bit, but still just kind of that absolute difference between the two would be interesting to bridge? Thank you.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Sure, Jeff. So, to start with, you are right. As Larry mentioned earlier this morning, in our guide for renewables, we are expecting the $3 billion to $4 billion of payments in the free cash flow. When we talk about free cash flow conversion, and you know me, I always talk about cash, but it’s important to see where it comes from. So, broadly speaking, we do expect to operate at more than 100% free cash flow conversion for the next few years. And why is that, a couple of different parts. First part, depreciation and amortization being higher than CapEx. And then I will talk more about the working capital opportunities and timing as well. But with the depreciation and amortization, an important distinction. We expect depreciation to be largely in line with the CapEx to basically continue to invest. It’s really the amortization that makes the difference. And now that we are excluding healthcare, it’s about $600 million of difference, and we would expect that to continue for years. And on working capital, I would say there are a couple of different parts here. We do continue to see opportunities in improving our working capital management, especially after the year with the pressure that we see on the supply chain. So, we see opportunities both to improve to so and inventory turns on receivables and inventory. But also when we look at progress and contract assets, we expect both to be sources given where we are in the cycle. Finally, on AD&A, it’s not working capital, but it’s also a driver. And this year, we are expecting negative $0.5 billion of flow and we have had a couple of years with positive flow from AD&A. So, for the next couple of years, we can expect that to be pressure. But over time, we would also see that normalizing. So, overall, we do see opportunity to continue to improve and we will continue to work that. But for now, we are focused on growing earnings.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.
Chris Snyder:
Thank you. I wanted to turn the conversation over to the aerospace business and specifically margins. I understand the general flat lining of margins in 2023, given the mix towards equipment. But I guess my question is, how long should we expect these mixed headwinds to persist? Should we model margins higher coming out of 2023? And is there anything keeping the segment up from returning to that 21% level achieved in 2018, 2019? Thank you.
Larry Culp:
Well, we are delighted to talk about aerospace. So, let me jump in. We had a very strong finish, as you saw margins up to nearly 19%. But Chris, as you know, this LEAP dynamic and frankly, mix overall will be a pressure for us in ‘23. I think as we look at margins next year, rather this year, we would expect they would be flat, but the revenue growth will give us an opportunity to drive profit growth up, call it, 15%. I would call out two things in ‘23. One, we do expect new units to grow more rapidly than services, that’s a headwind in and of itself. And then the LEAP dynamic, both within services and within new units will create the mix pressure that I suspect will remind folks about through the course of the year. That said, I don’t think we look at 18% as some sort of ceiling that we cannot pierce. We continue to have, I think a lot of optimism about the LEAP program and the opportunity to improve margins both with new units and in the aftermarket as we go forward. The program is still very much a young one. I think at the same time, we know price-cost hasn’t been as challenging, but it has been challenging at aerospace. We will do a better job, I am sure as we go forward. And our lean efforts, I think very much is an intendancy. You will see that both in the P&L and I think in the cash flow statement. So, I don’t think this is necessarily a ‘23 and done dynamic. That said, our expectations would be as we go forward, all in to continue to drive top line growth, profit dollar growth and margin expansion at aerospace.
Steve Winoker:
Liz, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Larry Culp:
Hey Deane.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning Deane.
Deane Dray:
First is a follow-up to Jeff’s free cash flow question. Larry, when you joined GE, you talked about an initiative to kind of smooth out the free cash flow cadence for the year, trying to avoid that historical hockey stick. And look, there are still some seasonal impacts. You can’t get away from like scheduled outages that will impact the fourth quarter. But has there been progress? Is that still something that’s an initiative here in terms of smoothing out free cash flow? And then I had a follow-up macro question.
Larry Culp:
I would say that there has been progress. There is still a lot more to do. And we talk about it, when you hear us use the word linearity, right, it gets back to Lean 101. We just want to make every hour of every day count, every day, every week, every week of every month. And there is still a bit of a dynamic. Some of this is us, some of this is our customers, where we migrate towards quarter end, we migrate towards year-end. So, I am encouraged by the progress. And I think more people today understand how we can be more linear. If you look at just the reviews we have had the first three weeks of this year at aerospace, right. We are looking at how we have started this year, how we have started this month, vis-à-vis, December, vis-à-vis, January a year ago. Those are the sort of operating cadences, which really help us in that regard. So, pleased, but we are not done.
Deane Dray:
Appreciate that. And then just given the uncertain macro, can you cite any changes, any meaningful changes in demand indicators that you are looking at, whether it’s quote activity, front log, anything that you could share here this morning.
Larry Culp:
Well, we are looking at just about everything that we can. Obviously, in aerospace, we are watching not only departures, bookings and everything that can precede that. The only thing that we have seen, and this is in a proprietary view, Deane, is obviously, freight has softened here as the short-cycle economy has done the same. I think with respect to for Vernova, we look at utilization in gas and when we can see what’s happening in real time. Even in Europe, we have been encouraged, I think by the utilization of the gas fleet. That said, we don’t want to suggest that we are immune with 60% of revenue now and services tied to those real-time dynamics we are watching carefully, but we wouldn’t be guiding a high-single digit top line number this year if we weren’t confident that our positioning both with the aerospace recovery and the energy transition sets us up to do well here in ‘23.
Deane Dray:
Larry, thank you.
Larry Culp:
Thanks Deane.
Steve Winoker:
Larry, any final comments.
Larry Culp:
Steve, we have covered a lot of ground here this morning. I would just wrap up with the group saying that 2023 really, I think was a historic year for ‘22 rather the historic year for us, we finished very strongly. The plans, the spends are advancing. We couldn’t be, I think, more thrilled with how things have played out for healthcare. But more importantly, we are excited about what lies ahead. Certainly appreciate everybody taking the time today to join us, your interest in our company and your investment in GE. And again, we hope to see many of you in March in Cincinnati.
Steve Winoker:
Thank you. Thanks everybody.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Denise and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker :
Thanks, Denise, and welcome to GE's third quarter 2022 earnings call. I'm joined, as usual, by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. GE Healthcare, CEO, Peter Arduini, is also here with us to share insights on pre-spin, progress and performance. Keep in mind that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes. And with that, I'll hand the call over to Larry.
Lawrence Culp :
Steve, thank you, and good morning, everyone. We're building broad-based momentum and GE delivered solid third quarter results with aerospace leading the way. Within GE Vernova, Power remains on track to grow this year and we took significant actions this quarter to reset renewable energy for future profitability. And external catalysts like the recent U.S. climate legislation and the European energy crisis, our increasing investment in new decarbonization technologies helping position this business for longer-term profitable growth. Our planned spins are on track with GE Healthcare ready to launch in January and GE Vernova in early 2024. GE Healthcare is in the home stretch now. I'm particularly proud of what they've accomplished, navigating COVID, bringing in a new CEO and CFO and now preparing to operate as an independent global leader in precision health. Peter Arduini is with us today to give you a full update. Now a moment on GE Aerospace. I'm really excited to be leading this exceptional franchise, especially during this unprecedented industry ramp. We have a tremendously talented team, a highly differentiated product and technology portfolio and leading positions in attractive commercial and military sectors. And we have leaders that nicely balanced unparalleled experience and fresh perspective as nearly half are new to their roles in the last year. Our high-caliber team includes Russell Stokes leading our commercial engine business, Amy Gowder, who runs our military business and Rahul Ghai, who recently joined as CFO. In that same vein, I'd like to recognize Shane Wright, who's retiring after 34 years of service. As many contributions across GE and GE Aerospace have been invaluable and help build a world-class business and team. Shane, thank you. The opportunity and the imperative to embrace lean more deeply both within our four walls and with our partners, suppliers and customers has really stood out to me over the last several months. We've been taking a harder look at our operating rhythms, moving toward a more frequent weekly and monthly cadence for each of our P&Ls. This has helped us manage the business in real time and deliver better, faster and more efficiently in what is clearly a dynamic environment. The process capability improvements are real. Taking last quarter's example, the additional 20% of existing engineers that we reprioritized to support delivery. Through daily management, they're helping solve problems closer to the point of impact faster and that's improving engine deliveries. Engine output was up double digits sequentially with LEAP units up over 50% sequentially, a credit to the entire team especially those in our supply chain organization. However, the post pandemic recovery requires continued sequential improvements for the foreseeable future, which our lean efforts will help us deliver. We have a similar story in services, where internal shop visits grew 10% sequentially and more than 30% year-over-year. Lean helps us reduce cycle time, improve turnaround time and generate capacity for more. In addition to strengthening our operating rhythms to meet this extraordinary industry demand, we updated our strategic plan last month with an eye toward how we continue to shape the future of flight for years to come. The quality of our technology and product roads, coupled with the energy and collaboration in the room, have me even more excited about what this business will become when it's a stand-alone aerospace leader. First things first, of course, with respect to the post-COVID ramp, but this is a business with an exceptional future. Turning to total company results on Slide 3. Orders declined 7%, driven by a tough comp at renewables against prior year megadeals in Onshore wind. Excluding renewables, orders were up 8% and positive across all segments. Revenue was up 7% with particular strength in services, up 20%. Looking at the segments. Aerospace and Healthcare were both up double digits as the market recovery continued and our pricing and delivery actions took hold. This was offset by Power down mid-single digits and renewables down 10%, largely due to lower U.S. volumes resulting from the PTC labs and our heightened new business selectivity. Collectively, supply chain and macro pressures adversely affected revenue by about 4 percentage points in the quarter, easing slightly again. Adjusted operating margin declined 190 basis points, strength at Aerospace from volume and price was more than offset by renewables, which included about $500 million of higher warranty and related reserves tied to fleet performance, which we'll address shortly. Excluding this impact, margin expanded by 80 basis points. Healthcare improved sequentially and Power declined year-over-year due largely to planned service outage seasonality. Adjusted EPS was down. Excluding the $0.40 renewables reserve, EPS was $0.75. Free cash flow was $1.2 billion, largely driven by strong adjusted earnings. We've continued to build inventory as we prepare for the fourth quarter ramp and continue to work through ongoing supply chain challenges. All in all, I'm pleased with how the GE team has continued to navigate a tough operating environment. And for the year, we're maintaining our prior outlook for revenue, trending toward the low end of our high single-digit growth range. We now expect 125 to 150 basis points of operating margin expansion and $2.40 to $2.80 for EPS. This is primarily driven by the higher warranty and related reserves at renewables this quarter. And aligned with the color we shared in the second quarter, we're expecting free cash flow this year of about $4.5 billion. Turning to GE Vernova. Power is a stable cash generator as gas utilization grows, our ongoing focus on services at steam, take root, the continued turnaround progress at power conversion and innovation at nuclear. Now more on renewables, where we've all been disappointed with our year-to-date performance. Our proven leadership with Scott Strazik and his team at the helm is leveraging the lessons from their power playbook to transform renewables fundamentals. Let me break down how we're going to improve performance there. Recall, we look at this in three parts, Onshore wind, Offshore wind and grid. I'll take those in reverse order. Grid is a $3 billion business, which will be the first to profitability. Market demand in automation and hardware remains strong. This year, we expect double-digit orders growth and thanks to our cost efforts, significant margin expansion along with profitability here in the fourth quarter, setting up 2023 is a profitable year for Grid. At offshore, we're transitioning from a new product investment into a business with roughly $1 billion of revenue and growing. The roughly 80 turbines we installed and commissioned for EDF recently were on schedule. And we're now shifting to the 7-gigawatt Haliade-X backlog, knowing our initial 200 deliveries will be challenging financially in an inflationary environment. But as we move to the next tranche of projects and reduce cost, we expect to approach profitability in offshore in the mid-20s. Finally, onshore is a $9 billion revenue business, more than 60% of the segment today and most of the operating loss. This is the battleground. Overall, for renewables, we expect to achieve profitability in 2024. We've quickly innovated in the fast-growing onshore wind industry, introducing larger turbines to provide leading performance and competitive project economics for customers. Since 2017, we've added over 40 gigawatts to the grid, increasing megawatt hours per turbine significantly. However, by much of the industry, such rapid innovation strains, manufacturing and the broader supply chain. It takes time to stabilize production and quality on these new products, which in turn pressures fleet availability. We need to industrialize faster to counteract these dynamics, and we are. First, we're drastically simplifying and standardizing too many variants into what we call workhorse products, so we and our suppliers can implement more repeatable manufacturing processes. This enhances product quality and reduces cost. In our existing fleet, we're deploying corrective measures, enhancements and monitor repair programs to deliver high 90s availability consistently. We expect to implement the corrective measures associated with these warranty and related reserves over the next couple of years. With fleet availability as our true north, we'll continue to be a leader and deliver for our customers. Second, as we've talked about in the past, we're being more selective about where we play, going after fewer markets where we have the right product and service capabilities and can execute profitably including focusing more on equipment-only projects. We're also seeing improvement in both orders and sales pricing. Third, we're reducing fixed costs. We're decreasing global headcount in Onshore Wind by about 20% and more broadly delayering at Renewable Energy. Across GE Vernova, we're expecting about $500 million of annualized savings from a $600 million restructuring program we plan to implement over the next few years. Reflecting on the broader market, when we spoke just 90 days ago, the prospect of significant U.S. climate legislation this year was unlikely. Recent months have been game changing. The Inflation Reduction Act provides much-needed certainty and stability for us and our customers, especially in Onshore Wind. The bill's $370 billion in tax credits over the next decade aligned tightly with GE's decarbonization technologies. Additionally, the infrastructure and investment Jobs Act provides at least $75 billion for investment in Grid, Nuclear and Breakthrough Technologies. In Europe, we're seeing more urgency and pragmatism to reduce emissions and make energy more resilient. Take the new European taxonomy, which reinforces the important role of gas and nuclear alongside renewables. As Europe looks to swiftly address energy security concerns, customers want to engage GE's full technology road map, including wind, gas fuel blends and grid. While these external catalysts won't factor into our results overnight, they improved the demand and economic profile for our businesses remarkably. To that end, we see a robust future in contrast to the current orders troughed. Altogether, we're at a significant inflection point for Onshore and renewables overall. While we expect renewables to achieve profitability in 2024, about a year later than planned previously, we remain very excited about GE Vernova's future. With that, let me hand it over to Carolina.
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Thanks, Larry. Turning to Slide 5, I'll share the insights from the quarter on an organic basis. While orders were down 7%, revenue was up high single digits with double-digit growth in aerospace and healthcare. Equipment declined 6% with continued U.S. onshore volume pressure and a largely planned decrease at Power. On a sequential basis, revenue increased more than $0.5 billion as we're making progress on our second half ramp. Services for the bright spot, with orders and revenue up double digits and growth across all segments. Aerospace led the way with orders up 28% and revenue up 33% as market demand remained strong. Recall services represent half of our revenue and an even larger percentage of our backlog. Overall, adjusted margin contracted 190 basis points. This was largely driven by the renewables reserves, which impacted margin by 270 basis points. Meaning, if we exclude this, margin would have expanded 80 basis points. Our actions are taking hold, and we are seeing early signs of supply chain easing. Volume, together with price, contributed almost 300 basis points of margin expansion, offsetting headwinds from inflation and logistics costs. Aerospace was a major contributor, up 280 basis points with strength in services. Adjusted EPS was down $0.18. Excluding the renewables reserves, it would have been up $0.22. Continuing EPS was negative, primarily driven by an insurance transaction, which I'll cover momentarily, and increased separation costs as expected. Regarding our updates to the margin and EPS outlook, we are now including additional pressure from the elevated warranty and related reserves at renewable. About half of this charge is incremental to our prior view. We also expect to offset healthcare pressure, largely due to inflation and investments with strength in the other businesses. Moving to cash. We generated free cash flow of $1.2 billion. Strong adjusted earnings contributed to this. Working capital, again, had a very limited impact on free cash flow despite high single-digit growth this quarter. Looking at the dynamics. First, receivables, the use of cash. Our terms were focused on collecting the accounts receivable from second quarter, improving year-over-year DSO by two days. But deliveries continue to occur later in the quarter, resulting in high quarter-end receivable balance. Inventory was also a use of cash. This is typical as we build for significant fourth quarter volume, leading to inventory and accounts payable growth. Progress was a source mainly due to the timing of down payments. Contract assets was also a source. Continued strength in aerospace and gas power utilization drove billings. AD&A was positive $300 million. Given the year-to-date impact and our fourth quarter estimate aligned with the current airframer aircraft delivery schedules, we now expect full year AD&A to be about 0. Year-to-date, free cash flow is approximately $500 million. In the fourth quarter, we expect higher collections given the large receivables balance and reduced inventory due to the strong quarterly deliveries. So in line with typical seasonality and our operational efforts, the fourth quarter cash flow will be significantly higher and we expect free cash flow of about $4.5 billion for the year. This is aligned with the color we shared last quarter. Now a moment on Corporate. Adjusted costs were down over 50% year-over-year. This was primarily driven by lower EHS and other costs and progress in functions and operations. For the year, we expect corporate costs of less than $700 million, which includes a few hundred million of favorability primarily from interest rate and FX dynamics. As we prepare for the planned spin of GE Healthcare, we're looking at our corporate costs to ensure what remains is sized appropriately. Therefore, we plan to take restructuring actions to reflect today's reduced feed for corporate-led activity and footprint. The program is expected to deliver roughly $450 million in annualized cost-out over the next few years with about $700 million of expense, the majority in the fourth quarter. At the Insurance, we further derisked our portfolio by terminating several reinsurance contracts. This reduces counterparty risk and improves administration, settling our receivable from the reinsurer in exchange for $2.5 billion of assets that we can deploy in our current investment strategy. Given the assets need to be transferred at fair market value and the current rate environment, this was an after-tax charge of roughly $300 million. We expect to recoup this over time as the assets mature. While excluded from our adjusted results, insurance net income was roughly $250 million loss. And without the charge, was approximately positive $80 million. This quarter, we also completed our annual LRT. As expected, this resulted in a positive margin with no impact to earnings and this for the third consecutive year. In discontinued operations, we recorded charges of about $100 million in our runoff Polish BPH mortgage portfolio, primarily driven by unfavorable results for banks in ongoing litigation with borrowers. This brings total litigation reserves related to this matter to approximately $1.1 billion. Now turning to our businesses. Aerospace, aerospace delivered a very strong quarter. Orders growth up 6% was driven by services, while equipment orders were down against a tough comp, especially in military. Revenue was up 25%, led by substantial growth in Commercial Services, up 47%. This was driven by internal shop visit growth strong spare part sales to our external MROs and favorable price. Commercial engine revenue also grew significantly on higher shipments, both year-over-year and sequentially. LEAP shipments improved, up over 100 units sequentially, and we're starting to see better flow through our factories. Military revenue was down year-over-year, driven by lower shipments and engine mix. However, tangible improvements on 2700s helped drive a sequential increase in engine units. Segment margin expanded 280 basis points, driven by commercial services growth and favorable price cost. This more than offset negative mix from higher commercial engine shipments and increased growth investments. Based on strong year-to-date performance and continued improvement in services, we expect full year Aerospace margins to be high teens with greater than 20% top line growth. Overall, Aerospaces strong market growth and business fundamentals reinforce the significant long-term opportunity here. Turning to Renewables. Orders were down 40%. Recall, we had record orders last year due to offshore where the project-driven profile remains uneven, making this a difficult comparison. Importantly, services, excluding repower, grew double digits and all Grid product lines grew. Revenue declined 10%. Over two-thirds was driven by lower U.S. volume at onshore from the PTC labs and our heightened new business selectivity. This more than offset services growth of 40% and better pricing across many businesses. Segment margin declined significantly year-over-year, primarily driven by the warranty and related reserves at onshore. The remainder of the decline was driven by lower U.S. volume at onshore and net inflation pressure in all businesses. Excluding onshore, though, all businesses improved reported profitability year-over-year. While we previously included about half of this elevated reserve in our full year expectations, the incremental impact this quarter is pressure versus our prior view. We now expect an annual loss of about $2 billion. The IRA is a significant catalyst, medium to long term. However, near term, customers continue to defer investments into the future impacting orders and associated cash. While 2022 has been disappointing, the actions we're taking, combined with the external catalysts we've discussed puts us on a much stronger footing as we head into 2023. Moving to Power. As expected, we're managing through a lower CSA outage year typical third quarter seasonality and second half timing dynamics for some equipment deliveries and service outages pushed to the fourth quarter. Looking at the market. Global gas generation and GE utilization grew mid-single digits year-to-date, with strength in Europe and in the U.S. While we continue to monitor gas prices and availability, gas remains a fuel of choice on dispatch cars globally to meet growing electricity demand. In the third quarter, orders were up 20%. This was driven by higher HA and aero derivative units as gas and services growth in all businesses. Importantly, our team continues to prioritize disciplined underwriting and project selectivity as we build our installed base pipeline. And as we've said, equipment orders remain uneven quarter-to-quarter. Revenue declined 5%, primarily driven by gas equipment and film where we continue to exit our new build coal business. We shipped two fewer HA and two fewer aero units year-over-year. Meanwhile, services grew 6%, driven by gas, where price and transactional services growth offset the lower expected CSA outage volume. Segment margin declined 100 basis points. This was mainly due to lower CSA outages and unfavorable equipment mix at gas, together more than offsetting the price escalation. But still, margins continued to improve, driven by selectivity and the associated cost-out. Looking at the fourth quarter, we continue to expect significant sequential and year-over-year growth in equipment and services. This sets Power up to deliver its outlook of low single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion. And Power remains on track for earnings growth and cash generation this year and next. Now I'm happy to welcome Pete, who will cover GE Healthcare.
Peter Arduini :
Thanks, Carolina. It's a pleasure to join you and Larry on the last earnings call before GE Healthcare's planned spin, which is on track for the first week of January. Our team has made excellent progress preparing GE Healthcare for its future as an independent public company. We achieved several milestones in recent months, including establishing our Board of Directors with deep healthcare expertise, diverse leadership and financial experience. I look forward to working with them as we hit the ground running together in GE Healthcare's next chapter of growth and value creation. Another key step in the process was our public Form-10 filing. This important disclosure details our historical and pro forma financials for GE Healthcare at both the segment and total company level. We also disclosed our planned capital structure. We expect our go-forward financial policy will incorporate a strong investment-grade rating for the company. And while we expect to prioritize deleveraging near term, we believe our solid financial position provides us significant flexibility to continue to invest in the business. We'll share more on our strategy at our December 8 Investor Day. My senior leadership team and I look forward to meeting with many of you and discussing our vision as we work to drive better outcomes for patients and productivities for customers in the years ahead. Moving to our performance. Overall, GE Healthcare delivered a strong quarter with sequential improvement. Top line growth across the business reflects the tireless work of our teams and partners to address supply chain constraints and improve product fulfillment. Market demand and backlog conversion remained positive despite inflationary and supply challenges that continue to impact the industry. We're speaking with our customers regularly and watching their behavior closely. They have been impacted by higher costs, particularly around labor. This makes the imaging and ultrasound products we provide more important than ever based on their ability to deliver increased productivity for providers. Looking at customer trends, global public spending in healthcare is solid, particularly in Europe and Asia. In the U.S., customers are taking a more cautious approach as they monitor the economic environment. Overall, continued patient demand is leading providers to invest in products and services that increase productivity and reduce operating costs. An important dynamic as healthcare systems modernized post-pandemic and prepare for increased demand longer term. That said, we're keeping a keen eye on provider performance and procedures, which continue to improve sequentially. Looking at the quarter, orders increased 4% year-over-year with sequential growth. Service is strong, up low double digits. Equipment was negative due to our reclassification of certain upgrades from equipment to services plus a tough comp year-over-year. Organic revenue was up 10% year-over-year with sequential growth. Equipment and Services were both up low double digits year-over-year and imaging and ultrasound were bright spots. Currency negatively impacted reported results by five points. Near term, we're focused on commercial execution improvements and NPI launches. Notably, GE Healthcare recently topped the FDA's list of authorized artificial intelligence and machine learning-enabled medical devices. Our commitment to innovation continues with quarterly R&D spend up double digits year-over-year, helping us accelerate our long-term growth plans. Segment margins declined to 15.4% year-over-year due to ongoing supply and inflation impacts. Sequential margins have improved since the first quarter, driven by higher volume, price and a continued focus on reducing costs. We've now delivered two consecutive quarters of positive price and orders price which also remains positive. We've been offsetting supply constraints by embedding lean throughout our business. One way we monitor supply dynamics is through red flags, identifying lines of -- at risk of a shortage, if not replenished within 10 days. And these have declined nearly 40% since last quarter. We've also broadened our supply base and requalified and redesigned over 7,000 parts, driving positive results. While challenging, we expect supply chain pressures to improve for the remainder of '22 and into '23. With the spin approaching, we thought it would be helpful to provide some color on GE Healthcare's cash performance. Keeping in mind our customer needs, we work with suppliers to stock up on critical inventory year-to-date and continue to manage inventory and inflationary environment. In total, our quarterly free cash flow grew slightly year-over-year and sequentially. Our actions leave us confident that we can meet fourth quarter customer demand. For the full year, we still expect mid-single-digit revenue growth. At the same time, higher inflation, currency and investments are impacting operating profit, which we now expect to be $2.6 billion or more and we expect free cash flow in a range of $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion based on the higher inventory build to meet demand in the fourth quarter and into 2023. In closing, our team is highly energized as we approach this new chapter. We're confident in the planned spin will unlock significant shareholder value, enabling us to prioritize R&D investment, grow faster and optimize our operating model. And so with that, Larry, I'll hand it back over to you.
Lawrence Culp :
Pete, thank you. I share your excitement. I think we're going to have some fun. I'd like to close on Slide 12. GE continued to build momentum in the third quarter. Aerospace delivered a very strong quarter. Renewables is taking action to reset for profitable growth. Power remains on track for stable earnings and cash and Healthcare, as Pete just outlined, improved performance. Lean and decentralization are the key enablers of this momentum, driving safety, quality, delivery and cost improvements, which serve as the foundation of all we do at GE. And these improvements are sustainable. Take my 2021 Kaizen week team at Lean. One year later, the team has enhanced our closed-loop machining process on the T700 mid frame. Now while there's always more to do, this process is delivering close to 100% first-time yields compared to about 50% previously. Real lien sticks and we're scaling it across lines, sites and businesses. And with that Lean foundation, GE continues to lead with innovation. At Aerospace, we completed testing on our second XA100 adaptive cycle engine partnering with the U.S. Air Force. It's an innovative engine that pairs power with efficiency. Healthcare made further progress in the home care space, expanding its live core relationship and announcing a new collaboration with AMC Health to enable remote patient monitoring. Empower secured an order from Kindle Energy to provide a class power generation equipment. This will help support Louisiana's ongoing energy transition, initially fueled by natural gas, with the ability to use up to 50% hydrogen by volume. It's clear our businesses are creating a smarter and more efficient future of flight, driving decarbonization through the energy transition and enabling precision healthcare. And we're set to unleash their full potential through our plans to launch three independent investment-grade industry leaders, starting with GE Healthcare in just two short months. Steve, with that, let's go to questions.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line and ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts again and ask just one question, so we can get to as many people as possible on this busy earnings day. Denise, can you please open the line?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Lawrence Culp :
Good morning, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
So I'll keep the one question. On the Renewables, I just want to confirm the charge in the quarter. That's sufficient to cover the entire scope of the work that needs to be done. And my real question is on the restructuring charges you've laid out, is that sufficient to return the business to breakeven or better with stable markets? Or do we need the U.S. onshore market to recover to get back to profitability?
Lawrence Culp:
Nigel, let me take that in order. I think what we have laid out today, what we've been working on all year really puts us in a position for Onshore Wind to be profitable in 2024. That's not the end state, but it's an important way point for us given recent performance, obviously. The charge that we're taking here, the $500 million is geared toward resolving the fleet availability issues that we've touched on. I think that gives us ample room to tend to what we need to deal with and move forward from there. That not only helps us with fleet availability, but the other design and manufacturing improvements we referenced, in addition to the restructuring, are what really set us up to be more profitable and to be flat out profitable in 2024. So next year will be another year where we'll probably have parentheses around the op profit numbers, but then we get to where we need to be in '24, and we'll move on from there. We really aren't expecting in the short term, Carolina touched on this, meaningful help from the IRA. In fact, we're going to -- we've seen some business move from '22 to '23 in as a result of customers taking a pause, waiting for the incentives that they'll enjoy in all likelihood next year in a way that they couldn't access this year. But we've never had more clarity, we've never had I think, better visibility about U.S. government support for onshore wind than we do now for the rest of the decade. But none of the operating actions that we've highlighted here are relying on that legislation. Remember, we didn't think that was going to happen when we talked to you in late July. That was a pleasant third quarter surprise. So everything we've been doing operationally is geared toward a lower level of volume, profitability in that context. But the Inflation Reduction Act just, I think, improves the prospects for this business for a decade meaningfully.
Operator:
The next question comes from Anthony Petrone from Mizuho Group. Please go ahead.
Anthony Petrone :
Thanks and congratulations to the team on getting to close to the first spin with GE Healthcare. So this question will be for Pete and Helmut on the call. Pete, just as we head into spin here, we've had a number of companies in the medical device space report already as well as several large hospital customers. And I think I would classify the environment right now is highly mixed. And still a lot of variables out there, certainly as it relates to 2023. Specifically, last week, we had two large hospital operators elect to not issue guidance. On the flip side, some of the medical device companies have actually posted slightly better procedures. Turning to the GE Healthcare business sequentially, it actually looks like orders improve a bit. So with that as context, maybe just your background as the company speaks to its hospital customers and maybe just a very early view on your high-level thoughts on 2023. Thanks a lot and congratulations to the team again.
Lawrence Culp:
Anthony, thanks for the question. Yes, look, to your point, as I mentioned in the prepared comments, actually Q3, we see a positive global growth market, backlog price improving. But we are watching this evolving environment, particularly in the U.S. The public markets outside of the U.S. and EMEA and Asia, particularly China, there's actually a reasonable amount of stimulus money or post-COVID investment going in to increase growth. But we see the patient demand from some of the different reports that's out on the street, both from med tech as well as other providers to be showing incremental growth. Obviously, there's been some increases in cost of labor, but that seems to be subsiding. And so I'm now pretty regularly speaking with customers and we still see a reasonable amount of pent-up demand within the system. I think we all realize that year-over-year '21 to '20, it's actually a tough comp. It was a pretty big recovery in procedures as well as equipment growth. And so we're still seeing if you look at a two-year stack, we're still seeing double-digit growth versus '20 in '19. So keeping a sharp eye on it for sure. Look, relative to we'll obviously talk a lot more about our strategy on December 8, and then we'll plan to talk about our guidance in our normal time periods at the end of the Q4 announcement. Thanks, again, for your question.
Steve Winoker :
Thanks. Next question, please.
Operator:
The next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Good morning everyone.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning, Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
So cash in Q3 was higher than your own expectations coming in, but you mentioned that you're planning to take, I think, $1 billion plus of additional restructuring between Corporate and Vernova the majority of the corporate restructuring in Q4. So how do we think about the rightsizing of your businesses in the context of cash? And I know you've really said you need to assess what your cash generation would look like versus that old $7 billion plus guidance for '23. But could you give us more color into the puts and takes of how to think about cash going to '23 versus the 4.5% this year?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Okay. So sure, I understood the question. So you're talking about how we get to the cash in 2023. Okay. So we've talked about the different businesses and where we are. Just to comment on the restructuring. So the restructuring that we take this year, you are right that cash will impact 2023 and probably also 2024. But that said, with where we are now, we have strong momentum going into 2023, and we've talked about us expecting a significant improvement of both profit and cash for 2023 and that still holds. You look at it business by business, aerospace clearly on a big rebound from COVID and an unprecedented ramp, which will continue in the next year. We have healthcare that Pete just mentioned, still strong orders and executing on the backlog, so that will continue to go into 2023 as well. On Renewables, as we take the charge is one thing, but we will also expect to start to see the impact from both the improved availability on our products as well as the cost out that we mentioned earlier today. So you'll start to see that improvement. And then for Power. I would say we expect services to continue to grow, still continue to improve. Grid being profitable. And you put all of that together, and I would add to that also the working capital opportunity with reducing inventory and ARs. Put all of that together and you're going to see a strong improvement in 2023.
Lawrence Culp:
And Andy, I think our current intent now that we have just come out of our strat plan cycle, and are heading into budgets here over the next several weeks is to effectively do what we've, I think, done in the last several years and provide that forward-looking outlook cash and everything else at fourth quarter earnings in January.
Steve Winoker:
Great. Denise, next question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brendan Luecke from Alliance Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Brendan Luecke:
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to touch base real quickly on the rightsizing for the Onshore Wind business. How should we be thinking about longer-term competitive implications of having a smaller business here. Are you setting yourself up for a scale disadvantage down the road?
Lawrence Culp:
Brendan, I'm sorry, could you ask the last part of that again, please?
Brendan Luecke:
Is there a risk of GE Onshore being at a disadvantage from a scale perspective down the road?
Lawrence Culp:
Brendan, I don't think so whatsoever. I think that in many respects, one could argue that it has been the pursuit of scale that has led us in part to our current underperformance. We have led the last several years, as you know well, here in North America in the U.S. It's a market where we've got a home field advantage. It tends to be one of the better geographies in the entire onshore wind space. And I think all you're really seeing is do with respect to the restructuring, the selectivity efforts and the change in our product road maps is to really make sure that we are in a position to lead through this order's trough, particularly in North America, but come out of it not only with better products, better value propositions, better cost structures but ultimately, better performance as we move forward here, both for our customers and investors. I don't think that anything that we're doing here does anything to undermine our competitiveness. I would argue it will enhance our competitiveness, particularly at a time when I think many customers are looking forward here when the IRA kicks in, and we're going to go quickly from a trough period to a time of scarcity where it won't be about one upsmanship or specmanship, it will really be about reliability. We're going to lead in that fashion. We can be better than we are today. And I know that's what Scott and the rest of the Onshore Wind team are committed to. It may mean that we don't play in as many markets as we have historically. I think that will be a good thing because we have no intention of being all things to all people in any of our businesses. That's particularly important in onshore wind. I think it's part of what you've seen, Scott and the team do effectively in running what we refer to as the power playbook as they've transformed that business. And that's certainly going to be an important part of the program in Onshore Wind and, frankly, more broadly across Renewables, but it's particularly acute given the relative size of the operating loss today in onshore.
Steve Winoker:
Denise, next question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Maybe just a little bit more color on aero. Just a couple of things jumping out to me here today. I think originally, we started the year thinking AD&A would be kind of $1 billion-ish headwind, and we're at 0 now for the year. And then also just looking at the aftermarket, I don't expect you to speak to your competitors necessarily, but Collins and Pratt posted 23% to 25% aftermarket growth here. Your spares number is up 52%. So I wonder if you could just address both of those. What -- how we should expect AD&A to maybe track into 2023? And if there was anything kind of unusual in timing, particularly in the spares business?
Lawrence Culp:
Jeff, maybe I'll take the latter, and I'll let Carolina to speak to the former. But I think you're exactly right in terms of what we're seeing in aerospace, I mean overall revenue is up 25%. The business just is facing welcome after the COVID drought in incredible levels of demand, we know we're going to continue to see that in the fourth quarter and in '23. I think from an aftermarket perspective, specifically, we've got a number of things that really helped us only from a volume, and frankly, from a margin and cash performance this quarter in the aftermarket. Shop visits were up year-over-year and sequentially, the scope within those shop visits was more robust. We saw a favorable mix with respect to our parts business as well, really, I think, as we and our partners and service to the airlines, are trying to keep the current fleet in the air as much as we possibly can. So a little bit of the tempering with respect to the fourth quarter margins is that we see some of that mix moving it the other way. It will still be, I think, a more than respectable second half, but we benefited a little bit in the third quarter. We'll probably give up some of that in the fourth. But that said, I think the operating mindset that we have is really to continue to drive shorter turnaround times, higher on-time delivery and really do all that we can to help the airlines meet what has been clearly quite robust demand on the part of the flying public. And having been with a number of these customers recently, not only the airline leadership, but a number of others in the travel and leisure hospitality spaces. They're excited about the end of the year outlook here and going into '23. So we want to be part of the solution in that regard, and we're obviously well positioned to do just that. Carolina, AD&A?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes. So Jeff, on AD&A, you're right. When you referenced the $1 billion of headwind year-over-year, that's comparing '21 to '22. So in '21, we were $0.5 million positive. And if we were expecting to be about $0.5 billion negative in 2022. The way it has panned out is that in the third quarter, we had about $300 million of positive flow, which gets us sort of year-to-date still negative. But if we put the full year 2022, now our latest expectation is that we will be flat in year flow. If you then look into 2023, we do expect the airframes to continue to deliver aircraft from inventory. So that will be than a headwind for us with the outflows. But we also expect the engine deliveries from us to provide some, I would say, some offset to that number. And exactly where that lands, we'll talk to you more about when we guide for next year.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks. Denise, next question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
Just on the Vernova spin, now that you guys are kind of expecting Renewables to still have parentheses around the profit number in 2023, does that change at all the potential timing of the spin? Just thinking about the rating agencies and how you guys want to be investment grade rated in all of the businesses, would it benefit that business to start to see positive profitability before the spin actually is consummated? Thank you.
Lawrence Culp:
Nicole, we're, again, very much on track not only with the health care spend with Pete and team here early in the new year, but Vernova in early '24, just as we laid out last November. I think you're spot on. We aspire to have all three businesses be investment grade as we move forward with the plan. And that framework, that commitment very much intact, which is why I'm excited about both what we're doing operationally in terms of controlling the controllable, and we've touched on that a couple of times relative to our product strategy, the fleet availability effort with the charge today and obviously, the restructuring. That coupled with the legislative support that we're seeing here in the U.S. and clearly the enhanced concerns around the energy trilemma, particularly energy security in Europe, I think, bode very well for Renewables and all of GE Vernova. We do a lot of things. And I think increasingly, as we talk to customers, particularly in this environment, our strategy, our breadth to help them navigate sustainability objectives, security, let alone affordability concerns couldn't be more timely. So I think we feel good about those things within our control, which the print were otherwise, but I think it's very much an investment in the trajectory of this business, which, again, will be an investment-grade business. So very much on track.
Steve Winoker:
Denise, next question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, good morning. So Carolina, you were out in mid-September talking about cash that was close to breakeven. I mean what's the -- what was the swing factor in the last couple of weeks of the quarter? And then just a quick one on healthcare. What are you guys planning on doing with the proceeds or the stock that you're keeping on your balance sheet after the spin? Thanks.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks, Steve. So yes, if I compare to where we were in Laguna, well, first of all, I'd like to say that I'm really proud of how the teams came together and performed to deliver this $1.2 billion of free cash flow in the quarter. And I would say, overall, the dynamics did play out as we've talked about them. The receivables were higher than we would have wanted, pushing collections to the following quarter. And we also had elevated material purchases to derisk the fourth quarter delivery and you see that on the inventory. What was better than anticipated, a couple of things. We saw stronger aerospace performance, higher earnings. And then you know it's going to be about services, so better services and especially on the spare parts side. Then we also saw stronger utilization both on aero engines and gas turbines, and that drove higher billings and higher collections, and you can see that on contract assets. We're also working to have more rigor on receivable daily management, and we actually managed to collect more than we thought. So we reduced so by 2-days year-over-year, which was better than we thought across the businesses. And then finally, on AD&A, the aircraft delivery is pushed relative to the forecast, which really -- well, that's a positive impact for us on our numbers. So overall, that's what got us to $1.2 billion of free cash flow, and reiterating the guide of $4.5 billion of free cash flow for the full year. Your second question was on the healthcare proceeds. So yes, we've talked about that we would keep a part of healthcare, but it's too early to say what we're going to do with that. We are -- we have a capital allocation framework and the capital iteration structure. So in due time, we'll come back to that and share more.
Steve Winoker:
Okay, Denise, next question please.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Hi, guys. Good morning. So you had a disclosure that in third quarter, you agreed to terminate substantially all long-term care insurance exposure previously seated through single reinsurance company, so $300 million after-tax charge in the third quarter. So I guess the question is, are you guys cleaning up things? Does this make it easier to do a transaction, long-term care down the road? Are these things connected?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Andrew, thanks for asking. So to start with, I would say this transaction is really a good example of how we continue to work to reduce risk. So we're bringing back $2.5 billion of assets that were previously held by a third party. And we said we will invest that. I would say everything that reduces risk and makes it a stronger book is a positive and keeps our optionality broader for the future.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks. Next question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Joseph Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Joseph Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. My question is for Peter. And so I really want to try to understand the path for normalizing free cash flow in the healthcare business because -- it seems like you're running about $1.4 billion behind this year as of the middle of the year, things will only improve a little bit sequentially in the third quarter. So maybe just talk about that path beyond 2022?
Lawrence Culp:
Joe, thanks for the question. As I mentioned in the comments, I mean, we made a conscious decision with the mid-single-digit growth that we see here in the second half and really going into next year, to index on taking on sourcing and stocking the right level of critical parts. And as you've heard in other areas within healthcare and other parts of the business, certain areas such as chips and other areas, sometimes you just can't count on a consistent flow. And in our case, where there might be a couple of thousand components that come into an MRI. The shortage of 1 or 2 pieces could let that big chunk of equipment actually not get transferred. And so that's part of what we've laid out. We actually have a very strong backlog and commitment for customer orders well out into '23. And so I think what we're seeing now is we're going to continue to see that moving through. Obviously, we had -- as we mentioned, we actually had quarter-over-quarter improvement. I believe sequentially, we were -- free cash flow grew about $450 million and year-over-year in the upper 20s. But I think you're going to see more of that accelerate into Q4 into the next year. But the majority of it is really liquidating it here with the commitments that we have and as the supply chain improves, which we are seeing quarter-over-quarter.
Steve Winoker:
Denise, let's try to get in two more questions. A quick one first from, I think -- can you go next.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks very much for squeezing me in. So yes, I'll try and be quick for Steve's comment. It's really on Vernova. Just any color around the cash flow this year and where that will look in '24. And then on that EBIT guide, I think minus $2 billion Carolina had mentioned for this year going to 0 plus in 2024. A big -- what are the big swings? I think there's $500 million of costout, there's maybe $700 million, $800 million of warranty coming back. How does that balance split? Any color at all? Volume, price cost, FX, any help on that?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
So Julian, well, you mentioned a couple of the most important ones to start with. So as we're working through -- the restructuring is one piece of it. But also the sort of the workhorse and the industrialization will help improve the products and also how we install the product. So you put all of that together, you will see improved profitability. And of course, you won't see the recurring -- you won't say the charges that we take this year going forward. So we do see some cash pressure in, I would say, 2022. But for 2023, if you think about it, you have Grid positive and you have a significant improvement on the Onshore Wind side. You have I would say, the continued decentralization and restructuring actions there. So you put all of that together, you will see a significant improvement in 2023 and that moving on then into 2024. And in 2024, basically, the restructuring is completed. You'll see the full benefits and we expect to see a big IRA demand volume coming through. Some of them probably end 2023, but the majority of that coming in 2024. And now with those -- with the new orders to get progress payments as well. So that's how you step sort of through '22, '23 to '24 on profit and also on cash.
Lawrence Culp:
And I think, clearly, Julian, we're feeling the other side of that in the absence of a healthy order book with the PTC labs all the more, given some of the postponement that we've seen here of late relative to business we anticipated this year. But I think Caroline has got it right. We'll be in a more normal environment in terms of the order book and the attendant flows. I also think some of the product rationalization that we've hit on will help us from a working capital perspective as well, right, with the -- just the variance in the extreme customization that we've fallen to in a couple of areas. There's no way that hasn't had us carrying more inventory then we aspire to carry in this business. So a lot that we can do. But again, I think the template that you've seen over the last several years at Power is a pretty good road map here for what we are working on and what you'll see more clearly in the financials in that business in the next several years.
Steve Winoker:
Great. Denise, last question, please.
Operator:
The next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for squeezing me in. Larry, could you give us an update on the '23 planning cycle? You said the strat plans have been done, you're in the budgeting process. What's the macro you're assuming? I know that's -- it's pretty fluid here. And how would you describe the recession playbook for GE? I know you got 30 platforms, it's not cookie cutter, but any color there in terms of the resilience of the portfolio would be helpful? Thanks.
Lawrence Culp:
Deane, you're exactly right. We've just been through a couple of weeks with Renova, in fact, just given the breadth of the portfolio, timely, obviously, in the wake of not only what's happened in in Ukraine and turn Europe but also the IRA. We recently did the same with the Aerospace team. I think I referenced that in the prepared remarks. We actually ran through the healthcare strat plan earlier in our calendar that is normal simply to make sure we have that as a front-end load to all the subsequent work that Pete and the team have done in part the Form-10 that just came public. I would say overall, from a process perspective, really quite pleased in all three instances as to how far we've come over the last several years, frankly, just sharpening up our strategic intentions around those critical questions. You've heard me ask a lot over the years, what game are we playing and how do we win. I think that as we look at the macro, Deane, we don't have a unique house view here as to how things are going to play out. I think like others, we're concerned just around the host of issues that are out there. But that said, at Aerospace, we have tremendous demand. Again, the customers I speak to on a regular basis are quite bullish about their outlook. They need us to continue to support them, and we intend to do that. I'm sure you'll hear later this week from our airframer customers and the ramps that are underway in new plane production, we want to do the same with them. So we're not unmindful of the macro at Aerospace, but we've got a lot of activity to work through and perhaps a little bit of a secular exemption to some of the near-term economic uncertainty. Pete, I think, spoke well to healthcare. But here, again, post COVID in addition to the backlog work down that we will pursue, I think, healthcare modernization -- Pete mentioned China, I think we're going to see the same thing here in the U.S., Europe, also a priority. I think that bodes well, particularly for how we play in precision health. And then, again, given the support here in the U.S. around the inflation Reduction Act primarily for wind and grid, but to a degree, gas. But also this more pragmatic approach to the trilemma I think, is going to really help both Renewables and Power as we move forward, and that's not a '23 dynamic. So again, I don't want to suggest that any of our businesses are insulated or immune from the broader economic context -- but I do think we've got specific secular drivers in addition to so much that is within our control to work through it. And that's what we're going to do. We're going to control the controllable, stay true to the Lean agenda and put forward the best fourth quarter and the best 2023, we possibly can.
Steve Winoker:
Great. Larry, any final comment?
Lawrence Culp:
Steve, thank you. Just to close here, the team, the GE team delivered again in the third quarter, led by Aerospace, a very strong quarter. The spins are on track, starting with Healthcare in early January. As Pete mentioned, before then, we hope to see many of you at our GE Healthcare Investor Day on the 8th of December. And we do appreciate your time today, your interest in GE, your investment in our company. And we stand by Steve, Carolyn and the rest of the IR team to help as you consider GE and GE Healthcare in your investment processes.
Steven Winoker:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Sheryl, and I will be your operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks Sheryl. Welcome to GE's second quarter 2022 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Keep in mind that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes. With that, I'll hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Thanks Steve. Good morning everyone. GE delivered a strong second quarter with growth in orders, revenue, and profit as well as positive free cash flow. Aerospace was the key driver and services remain a bright spot of performance. While this remains the toughest operating environment I've seen, I am proud of how the GE team is taking action to deliver. I'll start this morning with an update on our plans to launch our strong franchises as three independent investment-grade industry leaders. It's now been 259 days since we shared this intent. We're on track and making good progress. Just last week, we unveiled the new branding of our three companies; GE Aerospace, GE Healthcare, and GE Renova, which will comprise our portfolio of energy businesses, including renewable energy, power, and digital. The names leverage GE's multibillion-dollar global brand and deep customer trust, giving us competitive advantage in our end markets. We also achieved several key milestones on the health care spend, which will go first in early 2023. We plan to file our confidential Form 10 shortly. Our team submitted its request for a private letter ruling to the IRS, an important step to achieve tax-free spin-off. We completed consultation with our European Works Council, allowing us to move forward with a number of critical employee actions globally, including adding key talent in support of the new company. We announced that GE Healthcare will trade on the NASDAQ, and I'm excited about the Board we're assembling for GE Healthcare and look forward to sharing more with you soon once finalized. We're focused on building out our leadership team broadly to support the success of each of the standalone businesses. I'm thrilled to now be leading a very talented team at Aerospace including John Slattery, who has been named Chief Commercial Officer; Russell Stokes, now leading commercial engines and services; Amy Gowder, leading Military Systems; and Rahul Ghai, who will join us next month is the business' CFO. And just last week, we announced Eric Gray as the new CEO of GE Gas Power, part of GE Renova. I'm thankful for how the dedicated GE team has strengthened our financial and operating performance while advancing the spin-off plans. And I'm confident in our path to create three companies that will be well-positioned for long-term growth. So, now let's turn to our results on slide three. I'm encouraged by the order revenue and profit growth and positive free cash we delivered this quarter despite continuing macro pressures. Orders were up 4%, supported by growth in both services and equipment. Aerospace led the way up 26%. Revenue was up 5%, growing in three of our four segments. Aerospace was up double-digits as the market recovery continued. Healthcare and power were both up mid-single digits, and this was partially offset by renewables, down double-digits, reflecting lower US volumes resulting from the PTC expiration as well as the business' international selectivity strategy. Our higher-margin services remained a bright spot, up double-digits, led again by aerospace. Collectively, supply chain and macro pressures adversely affected revenue by about 5 percentage points this quarter but eased slightly versus the previous quarter. Adjusted operating margin expanded 380 basis points, driven largely by higher services growth and our focus on pricing, with Aerospace and Power sources of strength. Healthcare is stabilizing but still faces supply chain challenges and renewables remains difficult. Adjusted EPS was up significantly, driven largely by Aerospace. Free cash flow was roughly $200 million and improved slightly year-over-year due to better adjusted earnings. This was offset by higher working capital tied to inventory build as we prepare for the second half ramp as well as work through the supply chain issues. verall, this was a strong quarter for GE with orders, revenue, profit and cash, all growing. Notwithstanding much is still uncertain about the external environment companies like GE are facing at the moment. We continue to trend toward the low end of our 2022 outlook on all metrics except cash. Working capital will be pressured as we protect customers from the impact of supply chain challenges as well as the timing of renewable energy-related orders, which together are likely to push out approximately $1 billion of free cash flow into the future. So fundamentally, a timing dynamic at work. We're just starting our annual strategy and budgeting cycle for 2023. We still expect to deliver significant year-over-year improvement in both profit and cash, but below our prior view. With the world evolving so quickly, we have to see how the next six months unfold and expect to provide you our 2023 outlook in the usual time frame at fourth quarter earnings. Turning to Slide 4, starting with aerospace and healthcare. While demand remains robust, delivery has been a challenge for us, for the industry broadly and for our suppliers. What differentiates us is our lean foundation, which we've built over the last several years. In aerospace, the industry is experiencing an unprecedential ramp as the pandemic eases coupled with labor and material shortages. The team and I spent time with our airframer and airline customers at the Farnborough Air Show just last week, talking about the need for predictability and stability across the entire ecosystem. We need to do better to deliver for our customers and quality and delivery are our top priorities. Let me take a couple of minutes on the actions that we're taking. Starting with OE. On the left chart, you can see material issues trending, either from our suppliers or of our own making that are impacting production flow and ultimately, delivery. We recently allocated an additional 20% of our existing engineering team to help solve these issues faster. We're seeing impact moving parts along, but we need to do more and quickly, and we will. We're partnering with our suppliers holding Kaizens at points of impact in their shops to help them reduce setup time, eliminate constraints, optimize transportation and improve overall flow to us. This is leading to increased supplier throughput as much as 30% or more in some cases. Overall, we're seeing signs of improvement with engine output up sequentially. In services, we use work stops to measure how often we need to interrupt a shop visit due to a lack of resources, primarily from delayed repairs, castings, forgings or labor constraints. The curve was beginning to bend in May and June, reflecting our efforts to ramp labor and improve overhaul cycle time. Last month, we held Kaizen events at multiple GE sites around the world. John, Russell, Amy and I were all in Wales at our GE Aerospace MRO facility, where we overhauled both the CFM56 and GE90 engines. As we work to improve turnaround time for a steep CFM56 ramp, the Kaizen focused on increasing overhaul capabilities from three to four engines per week. What I saw across our seven Kaizen teams in Wales was lean in action, a clear focus on waste elimination and continuous improvement. For example, operators on my team shared with me how they spent 45 minutes searching for parts for what is often a 60-minute operation. By removing this waste, we improved turnaround time at Wales by three to five days, about a 5% reduction. These examples are everywhere at GE. Each one further increases the efficiency of our operations and improves our pace of delivery to customers. In health care, we continue to broaden and strengthen our supplier base and address inflation through price and cost actions. One way we monitor supply dynamics is through red flags, which identify the lines at risk of a shortage, if not replenished within 10 days. The chart indicates our efforts are starting to yield improvements. But again, we need to do more. For example, responding to the COVID-19 related factory shutdown in Shanghai, our PDX team took fast action and we were able to operate at full capacity within 10 weeks. In the interim, our core Ireland PDX team used a Kaizen to increase capacity in the first step of producing contrast media solutions, which help doctor's better image patients. They reduced cycle time by over 20% lifting capacity by about 5 million doses annually critical in a shortage. Examples like these support our confidence for higher output in the second half and in 2023. The actions we're taking not only help clear today's backlogs, but build what our customers want, more predictable, shorter cycle times going forward. Looking at GE Renova. In Renewables, it's been a disappointing first half, and we're working intensely focused on stabilizing the business. We're working the fundamentals with Scott and his team leveraging the power playbook that has delivered improved profitability and increased cash over the last three years. First, given the US political environment, we're taking a more conservative view of the market for the time being. You've heard us talk about sizing gas power for a 20 to 30 gigawatt market. In renewables, we're taking a similar strategy, assuming GE onshore wind output of about 2,000 turbines per year. One key difference in onshore, we aren't sizing ourselves to the market. We're sizing ourselves based on our refocused efforts on select geographies where we believe we can grow and grow profitably. Lean and decentralization are core to the strategy. Empower, a first step was to decentralize, removing headquarters and other layers and driving full accountability closer to the customer. Using Lean, the team has implemented our Live Outage program that many of you saw firsthand in Greenville last March. At Renewables, we're embedding similar principles, starting with reorganizing grid into three P&Ls and integrating horizontal functions such as commercial and services vertically into the businesses. Next, scope selectivity, stronger commercial underwriting and a focus on pricing has enabled power to reduce risk and offset rising costs. We're turning to price escalation in our long-term service agreements where appropriate, and we're updating our project cost estimates more frequently to reflect our current reality. In renewables, while it won't be enough to offset the significant inflation pressure, we are making progress. Our pricing has substantially improved and onshore while continuing our focus on deal selectivity. Additionally, we're growing our higher-margin businesses, such as grid automation, which delivered double-digit orders growth. In Power, we continue to invest in gas and steam services productivity, while focusing on product cost competitiveness. At renewables, we've introduced several new products, which we are working down the cost curve. These are larger, more innovative technologies that need to be industrialized for large-scale production. We're also proactively deploying improvements to our fleet that will enable long-term reliable performance from these high-tech products. Fixed costs, frankly, a misnomer in my view because nothing is really fixed is another critical element here. Over three years, we cut these costs and gas by approximately $1 billion. Based on international selectivity, and a smaller North American market, we're taking a harder look at our renewables cost structure, which we expect will yield significant savings. We know from our power experience that these actions at renewables won't yield results immediately. But with this playbook, we expect the business to return to profitable growth over time. Combined with Power's progress and enhanced profitability and cash, we're excited about the future for GE Renova. Moving to Slide 6. While driving operational improvements across our businesses, we're also focused on better serving our customers and innovating for the future. A few recent highlights. At Aerospace, our joint venture with Safran. CFM International was selected by Delta to deliver 200 CFM LEAP-1B engines to power its new fleet of Boeing 73710 aircraft with options for up to 60 additional engines. Qatar Airways also signed an agreement for installed and spare LEAP-1B engines to power the airline's new fleet of 25 737-10 aircraft. At Healthcare, our recently announced partnership with Medtronic is enabling personalized care with the integration of two of Medtronic, continuous monitoring solutions with our precision monitoring platform. These capabilities allow clinicians to have access to real-time, reliable patient insights. And at Power, we celebrated the first HA gas turbine order in Vietnam. The new 9HA.02 combined cycle power plant is expected to improve the reliability and stability of the energy grid to support renewables penetration there. We're also developing new products with innovation supported by our continued investment in R&D. For example, digital announced the first solution resulting from its OPUS One Solutions acquisition, distributed energy resource management system, design to help utilities keep the grid safe, secure and resilient, while enabling energy affordability. So, in summary, I have great confidence in the actions we're taking and our path forward to drive sustained profitable growth. With that, Carolina will provide further insights on the second quarter.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks Larry. Diving into the results. Turning to slide seven, I'll share the highlights from the quarter on an organic basis. Orders were up 4% and revenue up 5%, with growth led by aerospace. On a sequential basis, adjusted revenue improved $1.6 billion or 10%, a significant step-up reflecting progress towards our second half ramp. Services revenue was a particular strength in the quarter as we delivered double-digit service revenue growth compared to last year, with aerospace leading the way, up 47%. Equipment declined 6%, driven by renewables. Healthcare and power equipment revenues were bright spots, with healthcare up 5% despite supply constraints and power up 18%, reflecting strong aeroderivative shipments. Year-to-date, organic growth was 3%. Both quarter and year-to-date, this includes five points of pressure from supply chain disruptions, COVID impact in China, and the Russia-Ukraine war with the latter contributing roughly one point of impact year-to-date. On adjusted margin, both aerospace and power saw expansion. Overall, as a result of the actions we're taking, focused on pricing drove more than 100 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter. Services mix particularly in aerospace, contributed favorably. We also saw improved contract margin reviews or CMRs with strength from contractual escalations and engine utilization. Cost reductions were more than 150 basis points of year-over-year benefit, largely restructuring savings and some timing-related corporate benefit. Partly offsetting these improvements was approximately 200 basis points of margin headwinds from inflation and logistics costs, net of sourcing actions. In Aerospace & Power, the net impact of price/cost and inflation was positive, healthcare and onshore wind both took steps to address cost and price, but it wasn't enough to offset the inflation. Lastly, adjusted EPS was up about $0.56 or about two and a half times, driven by profit growth plus lower interest expense from our debt reduction actions. About $0.15 of earnings was timing related that we either do not expect to repeat or had originally expected in the third quarter. Continuing EPS was negative, primarily driven by the unfavorable mark-to-market impact from our Baker Hughes and AerCap positions. In total, we delivered a strong quarter marked by revenue up mid-single-digits significant profit growth, and margin expansion. These results and our focus on execution gives me confidence that we will achieve the low end of full year growth, profit, and EPS outlook even in a tough environment. Year-to-date, we have delivered more than one-third of our EPS guide, in line with typical seasonality. Moving to cash. We generated $200 million of free cash flow, driven by strong adjusted earnings, which was positive, excluding the mark-to-market impact previously mentioned. Despite a limited impact on free cash flow in the quarter, supply chain challenges are contributing to inventory pressure and later deliveries and billings. First, on working capital dynamics. Receivables for the use of cash driven by billings from sequential revenue growth and also pressured by later deliveries in the quarter. This was partially offset by collection strength, where we saw a seven-day DSO improvement year-over-year. Inventory up across all businesses was a large use of cash. A portion of this is typical, building for the second half volume growth leads to inventory and accounts payable growth in material resets outpacing disbursement. This quarter, however, supply chain challenges also contributed to elevated inventory levels across inputs and outputs. Inputs were pressured by the impact on inflation and additional purchases needed to support second half deliveries for customers. For output, fulfillment challenges led to higher inventory. Progress was a source of cash, mainly due to aerospace collections on equipment orders to support production. Contract assets was a use of cash. We saw continued strength in aerospace utilization, resulting in higher billings, offset by service revenue in aerospace and positive CMRs. In the second half, we expect free cash flow to be significantly greater than the first half due to higher collections on revenue growth and disburse was in line with the first half inventory build. However, supply chain constraints are delaying deliveries and pushing collections to the following periods. So as a result, much of the third quarter free cash flow is likely to shift to the fourth quarter, while late fourth quarter deliveries would leave a higher receivable balance at the end of the year to be collected in 2023. Combined with lower progress payments from renewable energy orders, we expect this to result in a deferral of about $1 billion of free cash flow out of 2022. Turning to the business, Aerospace delivered a very strong quarter as the commercial market continued to recover. Orders grew across the board, up 26% with both commercial engines and services up substantially, reflecting continued robust customer demand. Revenue was up, driven by significant growth in commercial services with shop visits, 14% higher year-over-year and continued strength in spare parts sales. Supply constraints, including material availability negatively impacted revenue by 9 points, primarily in commercial engines. Military growth was driven by services. While engine deliveries slowed due to temporary setbacks, specifically in T-700 shipments, we expect tangible improvements in the second half. Commercial Engine revenue was down slightly as supply chain disruptions continued to impact deliveries. Total engine shipments were down 7%, largely due to lower GEnx production, while LEAP shipments were up 7%. Segment margin expanded by almost 15 points, primarily driven by commercial services growth, lower OE shipments, as well as actions improving pricing structures to address inflation and CMR performance. CMR alone drove over 8 points of improvement given the negative CMR last year. For the total year, largely due to China's first half slowdown, we now expect shop visits to be in the high-teens range. We also expect lower commercial engines revenue, trending below 20% growth year-over-year due to continued supply chain challenges. However, we continue to expect more than 25% commercial services growth from ongoing strength in spare parts sales, and that's more than offset the lower shop visit volume and OE volume. Therefore, we still expect to achieve greater than 20% growth and $3.8 billion to $4.3 billion of operating profit for the year. Moving to health care. Market demand remains solid, while supply and inflation challenges continue to impact the market. Underlying customer orders indicate continued commitment to investment and we're encouraged by signs that supply chain pressures will ease in the second half of this year. We continue to monitor hospital investment plans and procedure activity. Second quarter orders grew 1%, but that was against a tough comparison to the second quarter of last year when orders increased 11% as well as the impact from COVID in China. Orders increased mid-single digits in services, partially offset by a slight decline in equipment orders. Comparisons continue to be challenging through the second half. Revenue in the second quarter was up 4%, with mid-single-digit growth in equipment and low single-digit growth in services. Growth was driven by Imaging, Ultrasound and HTS services sales, and it was offset by the continuing supply chain constraints, including those related to COVID impact in China. We call that fulfillment challenges started in the second quarter of 2021. And when excluding supply chain impact in both periods, revenue growth would have been 5% this quarter, highlighting how we proactively manage sourcing and logistics. COVID in China impacted growth in both equipment and PDx revenue. With China broadly reopening in early June and our Shanghai PDx facility fully operational, our equipment and PDx revenue in China is expected to rebound in the third quarter. Segment margin was impacted by material and logistics inflation with some sequential improvement. Net of sourcing actions, margins contracted about 300 basis points year-over-year, but were up about 200 basis points sequentially. We are making progress with price and sales positive for the first time in recent history. Looking ahead, healthcare is focused on driving cost reductions and implementing LEAN through supply chain actions, to deliver for customers and address cost and price structures as we work to offset inflation and logistics pressures. We are also prudently investing in future innovation, aiming at high-return differentiated technologies. Our commitment to R&D investments is demonstrated by the double-digit year-over-year increase this quarter. For example, we launched Voluson Expert 22, our most advanced ultrasound yet. This latest addition to our Women's Health portfolio has AI-powered tools and our proprietary lyric architecture to unlock new imaging and processing power, achieving higher resolution detailed images and scanning flexibility revealing final anatomy in 2D, 3D and 4D with ease. In addition, our inventory levels are elevated as we prepare for an anticipated ramp in orders fulfillment in the second half of 2022. As Larry mentioned, we're making good progress on the healthcare spend. We have an opportunity to impact both patients and customers as healthcare transitions into an independent public company. Looking at the full year, order demand remains solid, and we're expecting mid-single-digit revenue growth while closely monitoring customer order activity due largely to inflation pressure, we now expect 2022 operating profit to be about $3 billion, slightly below our prior outlook. Turning to renewables. Orders were down due to continued pressure from onshore North America market dynamics and the selectivity in international, impacting both equipment and services repower upgrades. Partially offsetting this were Grid and Hydro, which won a large order for the upgrade of the Igarapava hydro power plant. Grid had orders growth across all businesses, including significant growth in grid automation. Revenue declined with roughly two-thirds of the decline from lower onshore wind North America deliveries. The remainder of the decline was primarily driven by Onshore Wind International as planned. Grid and onshore services, excluding repower, both were up low single-digits, reflecting our focus on driving growth in these businesses. Segment margin declined significantly although up 160 basis points sequentially. Roughly half the year-on-year decline was a result of volume reductions in our most profitable market, US onshore. The remainder of the decline was split roughly equally between net inflation pressures across our businesses and higher-than-expected new product costs in onshore international as we take measures to improve durability across our fleet. This was partially offset by grid where margins improved from higher volume and benefits from prior restructuring actions, and we also recovered costs associated with legacy hydro projects of about $70 million. In summary, we knew coming into this year that renewables would be challenging. Offshore wind is a long-term investment in an industry still not at full maturation. Grid, a critical part of the energy transition, is where we're making good progress today. Our priority is onshore wind where many pressures are converging. The ongoing paralysis in Washington with the PTC expiration is hitting our most profitable market, impacting demand. This is coupled with additional inflationary pressures and slip durability actions. For 2022, due to these dynamics, we no longer expect a step-up profit in the second half. Clearly, we have more work to do here. We're taking swift actions to turn around this business, running our power playbook. Given the strength of our portfolio and the fundamental importance of renewable energy in the energy transition, we remain confident that we will drive profitability over time. Moving to power, starting with the market. Global gas generation and GE utilization remained resilient, growing low single-digits. Despite higher gas prices and availability challenges, gas remains a fuel of choice on the dispatch curves around the globe to meet the growing electricity demand. We continue to expect the market for gas generation to grow low single-digits over the next decade. Orders were down in the quarter, largely reflecting the uneven equipment order profile we've seen quarter-to-quarter. Services declined due to lower gas outages in line with our multiyear technology cycle. Importantly, power orders grew low single-digits in the first half of the year, driven by equipment strength in the first quarter. The team remains focused on disciplined underwriting and backlog quality. Revenue was up mid-single-digits, primarily driven by margin-accretive aeroderivative strength, shipping 14 more units versus last year. Overall, services revenue was flat. We delivered strong transactional services growth in gas and power conversion, which was offset with the expected lower gas outage volume. Segment margin reached high single-digits in the quarter and expanded 30 basis points. At Gas Power, margins remain resilient from improving price structure to address inflation and aero equipment and transactional services volume growth. This helped offset the mix headwind. At still margins improved significantly due to continued focus on productivity as well as project and legal charges from last year that didn't repeat. We're focused on expanding our services opportunity and expect higher CSA outages next year. In the second half, we expect more growth as H-class and Aero delivery ramp alongside the continued strength of transactional services and the improvement at still. Power is set up well to grow profit in 2022, we are reaffirming our outlook for low single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion. Finally, a moment on corporate. Adjusted corporate costs decreased over 50% versus last year and 65% year-to-date. We saw lower functions and operations costs from some timing benefit in addition to lower elimination. Given the favorability in the first half, we now expect corporate costs of below $1 billion for the year. While excluded from our adjusted results, insurance net income was approximately $140 million. This was down year-over-year as COVID favorability supplies and trends continue to normalize. As we have previously disclosed early this year, aligned with the industry, we plan to adopt the GAAP LDTI accounting standard. The transition adjustment is being applied retroactively to the beginning of 2021. As a result, we expect a negative equity impact of about $7 billion to $8 billion after tax using January 21 rates. This is driven primarily by the lower discount rates. Using June 30, 2022 rates, the transition adjustment would be $4 billion to $5 billion, taking effect in the first quarter of 2023. Also embedded in this estimate is the $1.5 billion to $2 billion after-tax equity impact primarily from adopting the LTC first principles approach, which complements the LDTI and incorporates a more granular modeling assumptions. The first principle model are considered an industry best practice and allow for additional transparency driven by refined modeling that improves claims projections. Importantly, we do not expect any additional cash funding needs as a result of these changes currently. We will finalize our CFT results in the first quarter of 2023. We also currently expect our LRT margin to remain positive and will report results in the third quarter of this year. We've provided more info on this in the 10-Q that we filed today. In discontinued operations, our run-off Polish BPH mortgage portfolio ended the quarter with a gross balance of about $2.1 billion. And this quarter, we recorded charges of about $200 million, primarily driven by unfavorable results for banks in ongoing litigation with borrowers. This brings the total litigation reserves related to this matter to approximately $1 billion. Stepping back, despite the volatile environment, we are pleased by the progress we made this quarter. We delivered order, revenue and profit growth and positive cash. This gives me confidence in achieving the outlook for 2022 that we've shared today. Now Larry, back to you.
Larry Culp:
Thanks, Carolina. And by the way, Happy Birthday. Wrapping up on Slide 13. As we sit here today, I hope you see what we see. GE is a stronger, more customer-centric company with LEAN and decentralization at the center of everything we do, we've made significant progress across delivery, price and cost, driving lasting improvements. The actions I outlined earlier are helping us manage pressures today and most importantly, positioning our businesses for sustainable long-term growth. Looking ahead, our story is simple. We have leading innovative franchises poised to accelerate in critical growth sectors the world needs. We're advancing the future of flight, precision health and the energy transition. And our solid financial and operational foundation keeps us on track with our plan to launch three companies, each with greater agility, more focus and future growth opportunities. I'm excited about what's ahead. I'm confident GE is positioned to create value. Steve, with that, let's turn to questions.
Steve Winoker:
Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analyst again and ask question, so we can get to as many people as possible. Sheryl, can you please open the line?
Operator:
Yes, thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Deane Dray from RBC. Your line is now open.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Deane.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning.
Deane Dray:
Hey, a couple of free cash flow clarification question. First, how much of the $1 billion pushout is supply chain versus the renewable orders? What's the reset 2022 guide? And what does this mean for that previous placeholder for 2023 to $7 billion plus? Thanks. And happy birthday, Carolina.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Well, thank you, Deane. There was a lot of questions on cash. We'll take them step by step. So, to start with the $1 billion of working capital push up that we mentioned earlier today, it's really two-thirds that is timing, I would say, a combination of inventory versus receivable from the businesses. and then about one-third is progress in the PTC dynamics from renewables. So, that's the split of the $1 billion. Then you asked about the guide for 2022 free cash flow, and what does that mean then per business? So, what I would say is that if we start with what we talked about today, $1 billion -- about $1 billion of push out compared to what we've talked about before. So, if you take them segment by segment, it really means that in aerospace, we expect to be down due to the supply constraints. Healthcare, similar. So, basically, I would say, trending flat due to the supply constraints here on deliveries. For renewables, and here, we already in the first quarter, I talked about that we expected to sort of be below our original guide, but still better than last year. Now, we have additional pressure, so about a third is added to the renewables number or reduced from renewables numbers. And then for Power, we have conviction in the existing outlook and corporate, we also expect to land in the existing guidance. So, that's overall the 2022 impact of the changes in the free cash flow guide.
Larry Culp:
And Deane, on 2023, if I may, as you know well, we're just starting our annual strategy and budgeting cycle, that will take us through the next several months. I think as it pertains to 2023, we're still of the view that we're going to deliver significant year-over-year improvement in both profit and cash. But as we said earlier, below the prior view that we've expressed. And perhaps stating the obvious, with so much in flux right now, around the world, I think it's going to be important for us to see how the next six months unfold. And at this point, expect to provide an outlook on 2023 in the usual time frame at earnings -- at fourth quarter earnings. That said, I mean, given the way we've talked about 2023 in the past and the underlying improvement drivers, I don't think they've really changed since March relative to the strong tailwind that we see in Aerospace broadly, both in services and in new units. Clearly, post-pandemic spending by health care providers is something that is critical to the health care story -- and I think the energy transition all the more given events in Ukraine are going to play to GE's strengths. We just need to work through some of these near-term issues that we've highlighted in the prepared remarks in renewables.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes. So what that means basically is that we still expect to see the same drivers as we shared in March, but we're monitoring the volatility as Larry spoke about. And we do expect earnings to be a bigger contributor in the sort of the 2023 improvement. It will start off a lower 2022 base, but it will still be the main part of improvement for 2023. And if I look at the earnings at a big improvement part. Then on top of that, we have -- as usual, we have the delta between depreciation, amortization and CapEx, you'll have, what $1 billion of amortization that's non-cash. And then you add to that the working capital part, and we do expect to continue to focus on improving the efficiency, and we expect working capital to continue to be a source of cash, and that will be helped by what I just mentioned, at least in 2023 by the two-thirds of the $1 billion of push out. Well, I would say our more conservative view of the US onshore wind market creates more uncertainty about when we get the progress part and possible restructuring. So overall, we still expect a significant improvement on profit as well as free cash flow for 2023.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Your line is now open.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning and best wishes Carolina. Maybe just wanted to focus my question around the sort of operating profit for the second half. So I think you're saying you're at the low end, so sort of $6 billion of full year adjusted op profit is the new guide. That implies, I think, about $3.4 billion of second half op profit versus $2.6 billion in the first half. So you had about an $800 million increase half-on-half. I suppose my point was that in the -- just maybe you could confirm that. And then I just want to understand that step-up in profit in the context of the revenue step-up because I guess your old revenue guide of $76 billion you have a very big implied sort of revenue increase, $1 billion or so in the second half, half-on-half. I'm assuming that number is lower. But maybe help us understand the sort of revised revenue guide for the year and how we're thinking about the half-on-half step-up, what kind of operating leverage we should expect and what price cost is doing in the back half?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Julian, thank you for congratulations. I won’t reveal my age here, but thanks anyway. So on the profit. So no, your math is absolutely right. Let me start by saying that for us, our seasonality is that the second half is really loaded. So we have more than 100% of free cash flow in the second half and the 80% of net income in the second half taking 2021 as a reference point. So it's not uncommon. And we do expect to see strong sequential improvement in growth, and so that continued to accelerating through the year. If I look at the different businesses and what you commented on with the profit, we do expect to see about 800 million of profit growth compared to what we saw in the first half. And I would just start by saying, we expect to see improvements in all segments, but excluding renewables. So if you start with aerospace, we do expect to see strong growth from OE deliveries, which is actually driving a mixed headwind, and we expect that to be offset by the shop visits and the services strength that I mentioned earlier today. On the Healthcare side, we also expect the supply chain constraints to improve and you've seen our backlog there. So, we expect to see healthy growth in the second half as well. And a combination of pricing taking hold. I would say, while we continue to invest for the future growth, we also expect good profit from Healthcare and on the margin improvement there. For Power, I would say it's going to say, it's already in the backlog. But the second half deliveries, both of gas turbines and aeroderivatives are already sort of planned for the second half, and we see strong transactional services growth as well and also getting also getting power, also getting price here. So, I would say when we look at our low-end range, really, the majority there depends on our own ability to deliver. We've talked about sort of two-thirds high convictions and one-third that supply chain restraints and that holds. What we have done now, though, is we've taken a more conservative view on renewables, and therefore, we don’t -- no longer expect to see PTC conversions in the year for renewables. So, overall, the numbers are right, and most of that depends on our own ability to deliver. You also asked about what about price/cost. We're very happy to see that we have positive price in all the segments in the quarter, and we do expect that to continue to improve through the year. We also continue to expect to deliver on our $2 billion of cost out for the full year. That said, we are also seeing, as everyone is, inflationary pressures. We saw them in the first half, but we do expect, depending on long cycle versus short cycle little bit of different impact of inflation in the second half, but still working to mitigate that. So, that's overall how we get to the low end of our range.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joseph Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joseph Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning everyone and happy birthday, Carolina. I hope you have some fun plan later.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Joe.
Joseph Ritchie:
Just my question is -- good morning. Larry, maybe just -- it's interesting that slide four, when you're talking about the progress that you're making across both Aviation and Healthcare. I'm just curious like as you think about the margin trajectory for both of those segments, can we start to underwrite something closer to a high teens margin in the Aviation business? And then maybe just talk about the trajectory of the Healthcare margins from here?
Larry Culp:
Well, Joe, thanks for flagging that page. I think what we're trying to do was just help everybody understand that despite some of these supply chain challenges, you don't need us talking about that macro, it's well documented. It's really about -- at least for us, what are we going to do. And I think in both instances, in Aerospace and Healthcare, we're making some good progress that we just need to make more of. And I think as we do that, we'll not only unlock some of this pent-up organic growth. We talked about 500 basis points overall from the quarter, but particularly in services and aerospace and just healthcare broadly that's going to be, I think, not only good growth but highly accretive growth. With respect to margins, I think both businesses are marching toward 20%. As we said earlier, with respect to 2023 and beyond, we're really now in the throws of our strat plan process with each of the businesses. As you can imagine, a lot of opportunity in aerospace that we need to work through healthcare, similar but different in that they're preparing for the spin. But I think later on in the year, when you speak with Pete and Helmut, if they get ready, it will be clear that margin expansion and strong cash conversion are very much an important part of their story. I think, first and foremost, they want to demonstrate outsized growth, and we think we're going to be well positioned, both in terms of commercial execution and the innovation investments to do that. And hopefully, that cash conversion can be reinvested both organically and inorganically. But I think in both instances, you're going to see nice margin expansion as we move forward. As to when we hit 20%, give us a little bit of time and we'll give you an updated view later this year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Steve Tusa:
Hi. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning
A – Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning
Steve Tusa:
Happy birthday. The first half to second half on health care, that $1.2 billion going to something close to $1. Just can we get a little more granularity on that? And then the follow-up would just be how do you actually see the cash and earnings for third quarter? How does that split between third and fourth with a little more precision.
A – Carolina Dybeck Happe:
So if you start with the health care part and the health care margins, because what you're asking is really was the confidence in improving the second half. I would say what we saw that clearly is that we get good orders in, but we still have fulfillment issues and the inflation continues to pressure. And therefore, we now expect profit dollars to be slightly below our prior guidance, so $3 billion, and that on a mid-single-digit top line growth. And I would say for the second half, with what we're seeing, we are seeing fulfillment and pricing improved meaningfully, and we expect that to continue. And of course, the combination of that will help with significant margin expansion in the second half. I commented on sales price in the prepared remarks earlier. It was the first time we saw a positive in recent history. We've talked about how we've had that in orders, and now we see it come through in sales, and we expect it to continue to improve through the year as well as getting deliveries out. In parallel, we're also taking actions and the team is working really hard on implementing more lean and decentralization to drive redundant costs out. Sort of early stages of that, but we expect to see more of that take hold in the second half. And I would say that at the same time, we are investing in R&D and in commercial activities to really drive the growth for the future. And then you had a question on the third quarter margins as well -- of in general third quarter. So what we're seeing. So I would start with the headlines, I would say third quarter top line would be trending in mid-single digits. EPS, we would expect to be down year-over-year. And free cash flow, we would expect to be better than previous quarter, but down year-over-year. And if you take that a little bit into the context of the second quarter a bit, I mentioned this morning that we had some timing impact. So some of the EPS sort of improved second quarter will impact the third quarter. We had sort of the nonrecurring benefits. We also expect to see higher aerospace deliveries, OE deliveries. So, that's going to be a headwind from profit and margins. And then with this typical seasonality in power, in the second quarter, we have the outages and we have a bit lower margin outages in the third quarter. So, overall, that's why we get there on EPS. And I would say on free cash flow, so it's a combination. You have sort of the impact on the second quarter, the positive impact on the second quarter, but also what happens in the third quarter with the OE deliveries moving out, we also expect to have a bigger impact on AD&A. And then I would say, finally, we commented on this morning is that we do see the impact of the supply constraints, which basically leads to sort of orders going out later in the quarter, which means the second quarter deliveries pushed out in the third, third into the fourth, and the fourth into the beginning of next year, which also puts pressure on working capital. So, you can expect to continue to see that in the third quarter. And that's why we expect flow to be slightly up quarter-over-quarter, but down year-over-year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning Larry. Happy Birthday, Carolina.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Andrew.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
I guess I should really be greedy and follow my colleagues, competitors and ask five questions, but I'll stick with one. On supply chain, specifically in Aerospace aviation, how do you solve the issue with castings both near-term, but it also seems it's more of a structural issue for aviation in the longer term, particularly with a leap ramp-up but also NJD being in being used. What's your sort of dealing with casting supply chain? Thanks a lot.
Larry Culp:
Andrew, I would say that if I can just open the aperture a bit relative to the question, it's important that everybody understand that the supply chain challenges in the aerospace industry are far broader than any one commodity at the moment. I mean we see that not only in our own supply chains, but particularly in the wake of Farnborough and the conversations we had there with the airframers and others, this is something that we're grappling with broadly. I've had an opportunity just in the four weeks that I've been in harness at Aerospace to sit with a number of the CEOs and their teams of our core forging and casting suppliers. Here again, Andrew, no silver bullet. This is a ramp that's going to, I think, have us all very much on our toes. I think what we're trying to do is make sure that, first and foremost, our signaling to the vendors, it is crystal clear and consistent as we possibly can. I think over time, we've sent many signals, often mixed signals, and it's really tough for them to operate accordingly. I think similarly, both have indicated there are a number of ways in which we can collaborate around design, let alone capacity additions that will serve everybody and ultimately, our end customers better. So, there's a lot of work to do. It will be a multiyear task to ramp as the industry is clearly poised to ramp, but that's a high-class problem where I come from and one, we're very keen to tackle with our supplier partners in service of our airframe customers, and that's exactly what we're going to do.
Operator:
The next question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research. Your line is now open.
Scott Davis:
Hey, good morning, everybody.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Scott.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Davis:
I can't think of the worst way to spend your birthday than I to talk to us, but anyways. I hope Larry let you leave early today. Let's put it that way. Larry, you haven't really talked much about FX. I mean, the dollar has gone through the roof here. And I know arrow stuff is in US dollars. Talk to us about the headwinds you have in the other businesses?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes, I would say on FX, for us, -- our reported sales were 2%. So we had a negative three points top line from currency. While on the profit and EPS, it's really a material impact. For us, this is mainly a translation impact because on the transaction side, and you were sort of commenting on that yourself, Scott, that much of our renewable sales are really US dollar-denominated. Aerospace, no exception. And then with the longer projects that we have, where we have FX exposure, we actively manage that and hedge against those. So I would say, if you assume the same rate still for the full year, we would expect a similar impact for the full year. So that is on the top line and small on the bottom line. When it comes to the different businesses, yes, well it's the ones that are more outside of US based that are impacted. So you see healthcare and renewables in different ways, but they will both be impacted by the translation impact. But overall, it's a small one for GE, for the business that I mentioned.
Operator:
The next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Good morning, everyone. Happy Birthday, Carolina.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks, Andy.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Larry, maybe you can give us a little more color into some of the actions you're taking renewables in terms of the fixed costs takeout you mentioned, do you end up taking a bigger restructuring at some point? And then you mentioned you no longer expect to step up in profit in the second half. Does that mean you expect a significant losses in the second half as you took in the first half. And as the market stands today, do you still think you could achieve your target of approaching breakeven in renewables in 2023 or at some point in 2023?
Larry Culp:
Andy, I think what we had indicated back in April is that we would see another approximately $400 million of profit drain in the second quarter. Unfortunately, it played out in just that fashion, but we thought we'd see second half a reduction in that drain, approximately $600 million 1st to second half. Again, that's not happening, unfortunately. I break it down really due to three drivers, all of which we've touched on, one, just this more conservative posture in the face of the realities in Washington, relative to demand, convertible demand here in 2022, the inflationary pressures that have been well discussed and the fleet durability investments that we indicated we're going to make here as well. So I think you're going to see a second half that resembles the first half more than we would like, but we are working through that. We'll talk again about targets for 2023 later, this is still a business that we have confidence in. Even though we may have a lull in demand here in the short-term, whether it be energy security, whether it be climate, there will be demand for this business in the US and broadly in attractive markets over the medium and long-term, and I think we're well positioned to play there. It's important that everyone remember that while we talk about renewables as a segment, we've got three different dynamics within the segment. We've got offshore wind, which is a growth play for us. We knew that would be an investment over the next -- over several years; grid, which is rapidly approaching breakeven and it too has, I think, a role to play in the energy transition. How long it takes us to get to breakeven. Again, Andy, we'll talk about it in more detail later. But most importantly, we are going to deal with the fixed cost, the so-called fixed cost in the business. But that's just one plank of the plan, right? We've got to do a much better job in terms of modularity and design to not only improve quality and delivery, but frankly, to bring down unit costs. What we've talked about in terms of selectivity and price is really important here. We can't chase every order and we need to continue to make substantial improvement with respect to capturing value for what we deliver. The decentralization of renewables as a segment and even within the businesses, is something that will help not only, I think, reduce cost, but more importantly, improve our execution day in, day out. And that's against the backdrop, not on like we did a few years ago with gas, where we're just going to take a more conservative view for planning purposes of volume, mindful that this low in the market, again, will be short-lived. So, there's a lot going on there. We're going to need some time to work through it. But given what's got and team did in gas and power broadly over the last several years, I think we have, again, confidence that we'll run a similar set of plays to get not only to break even, too, but far more respectable returns in that business.
Steve Winoker:
Sheryl, we're going to make time for one more last and hopefully brief question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Good morning all. Thanks for fitting me in.
Larry Culp:
Hey Josh.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi Josh.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
So, to keep Steve happy, I'll keep it brief here on my end. Just on the aviation ramp here, they're kind of a little later to the party on supply chain maybe versus some of these ship-oriented businesses like health care. What's the confidence from here in terms of maybe the ability to ramp sequentially. Talk a little bit about the context of by, I think, Andrew Obin's question, but maybe with shop visits as well, where you had some issues in the first quarter, I think, relative to plan. And related to that, how long can the spares dynamic sort of offset whatever gap is forming there? Thanks.
Larry Culp:
Well, Josh, I -- a couple of things there. Let me try to cut through it. What matters most is the customer. And for sure, the spares in the aftermarket helps us financially at a time like this. But we don't want to have that in any way dilute our focus on shortening cycle-times and improving on-time delivery, right? We know our major airframe customers need more engines from us than we have provided and that will be the case for the foreseeable future. So, we need to ramp again in a predictable, reliable, stable way. That's what they want more than anything, so that they can plan the rest of their assembly operations accordingly. And that's where we're focused. So -- there are a whole host of things that we've touched on here relative to our own operations, which we're driving in terms of improving yields, improving capacity and the like and the same thing applies in the supply base. I think the station, Josh I withdraw with semi is that semi didn’t have the dramatic downturn with this industry and I say the industry saw with COVID and then the dramatic spring back. So when the industry was turned down to such a degree, right? And we can talk about this commodity that commodity, I would argue, you see a similar dynamic with some of the pilot shortages that we hear about, some of the operating challenges, the airports are going through. This is an industry that was nearly mothball that is working very hard to come back to meet ultimate leisure and business travel demand, and we're very much a part of that industry and have our version of those challenges. But we're on it.
Steve Winoker:
Great. Larry, any final comments before we wrap?
Larry Culp:
You bet, Steve. I know we're tight here. But to close, I appreciate everybody staying in over time with us. We delivered a strong quarter. The actions we're taking to improve delivery, price and cost performance are building meaningfully stronger businesses at GE, and our planned spends are on track. We appreciate your interest in GE, your investment in our company and your time today. Steve and the entire IR team stand ready to assist as you consider GE and your investment processes.
Steve Winoker:
Thank you
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter 2022 General Electric Company Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] My name is Brandon, and I'll be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Brandon. Welcome to GE's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Keep in mind that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes. With that, I'll hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thanks, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by addressing the devastating war in Ukraine. The GE team stands proudly with the people of Ukraine. As we shared last month, we have suspended our operations in Russia with the exception of some essential activities, primarily in health care. We've also made a multimillion dollar contribution through philanthropic commitments and medical equipment to assist those who have been directly impacted by the events. I'm inspired by the more than 50 GE employees in the surrounding regions who have opened the doors of their homes to Ukrainian refugees and have volunteered their time to help with other refugee efforts. Now let me turn to our results, starting on Slide 2. I'm proud of how our team drove improved services, orders and cash as we managed through increasing challenges in the first quarter. Orders were up 13% organically, with strength in both services and equipment, and we saw double-digit growth in Aviation and Power. Revenue was up slightly, driven by growth in higher-margin services in all segments. We saw continued momentum at Aviation with revenue up double digits. This however was largely offset by supply chain constraints in all segments, especially Health Care and Aviation, U.S. policy uncertainty driving lower Onshore Wind North American deliveries at Renewables this quarter and continued selectivity at Power. In particular, selectivity, being more disciplined about what we sign up for, taking a closer look at the margins we underwrite and not competing everywhere, continues to be a critical element of our strategy at Power and Renewables. We're focusing on business that's aligned with our long-term growth and profit objectives. As you've been hearing from many other companies, we're operating in a challenging macro environment. Collectively, supply chain issues, the Russia-Ukraine War and China COVID impacts adversely affected revenue in the quarter by about 6 percentage points. I'll provide more detail shortly on these factors, and more importantly, the actions we're taking to mitigate them. Adjusted operating margin expanded 110 basis points, driven by higher services mix and continued cost out. Both Aviation and Power margin improved substantially, while Health Care and Renewables were meaningfully pressured due to both inflation and supply chain shortages. Strong services growth and margin expansion led to an adjusted EPS of $0.24, up 85% year-on-year. Free cash flow was roughly negative $900 million, as expected, given our seasonality. This was driven by receivables and inventory build for the second half and supply chain constraints. Importantly though, this was a $1.7 billion improvement, excluding discontinued factoring. Overall, services are recovering across our portfolio. Our total orders are strong and our cash generation continues to improve. Turning to Slide 3. At our Investor Day in March, we discussed some of the key risk factors that drove the range in our outlook. Since then, we're experiencing increased pressure from inflation, renewable energy and the Russia-Ukraine war. We're also watching 2 evolving areas, namely additional supply chain pressure and recent COVID impacts in China. We're holding the outlook range we shared in January and working through these pressures I just outlined. But given the fluidity around the duration and magnitude of these factors, we're trending toward the low end of that range. Carolina will run through the dynamics by business shortly, but let me spend a moment on Renewables. As Scott Strazik shared last month, our financial results here have been unacceptable, but they are fixable. First, continued U.S. policy uncertainty, along with higher prices, has reduced near-term demand in our profitable North America Onshore Wind business. Second, inflationary pressures are impacting GE with higher material and logistics costs. Third, proven and new leadership with Scott and Philippe Piron is transforming the business fundamentals, largely using their Gas Power and Power Conversion playbooks in their new roles. This all starts, of course, with what's in our control. We need to run the business better, and that's something we know how to do. We're using lean to improve safety and quality and product cost. We're taking an even harder look at our cost structure to size the business for the new realities. We're now managing the business in a more decentralized manner, closer to our customers as well as improving our own execution. We're being more selective on deals internationally, with our price and market focus on defined geographies where we've identified product fit, services opportunities and an ability to execute. This is already yielding improved order pricing, which was up high single digits in the quarter in our onshore International business. These actions won't materialize in our results right away, but we do expect renewable energy to return to being a profitable growth business over time. And rest assured, this is a business that's critical to the energy transition, thus one positioned for long-term growth. More broadly, in all of our businesses, we're driving growth, price and cost out. We're growing our more profitable services businesses, reconfiguring our supply chains and leading with innovation while increasing R&D spend. We're also raising list prices and price floors. And in services, we're utilizing escalation clauses in our agreements and we're focused on sourcing and productivity to reduce cost. Power, for example, continues to deliver profit and cash, supported by price escalation in our CSAs and improving steam business, a disciplined underwriting strategy and operational improvements despite the fulfillment challenges. And we're embedding lean deeply across GE, changing the way we work for the better. You've heard me talk about the core principles of lean before, which is all about serving the customer, eliminating waste and prioritizing ruthlessly. Earlier, I mentioned 6 points of pent-up revenue. We need to work through to execute on the demand we're seeing, especially in Aviation and Healthcare. Let me give you a few quick examples of what we're doing to manage through the well documented supply chain challenges out there. We hosted our Investor Day at Genba, showing up close how lean is transforming the company. Many of you saw at our aviation facility in Greenville how our team performs complex machining operations and detailed inspections on high-pressure turbine blades. Here, we're focused on reducing the site's blade delivery lead time. The team has used lean to improve the plant layout and create standard lines, improving part flow. These actions have reduced lead time by more than 10 days, and we're targeting an additional 10-day decrease. Through this work, overall inventory has been reduced as well. Our military business is also making progress. For the T700 program, we've improved first-time yield in key lines by about 40% and shipments increased more than 35% sequentially. This supported high single-digit revenue growth at military in the quarter, with more improvement to come as we apply these learnings to other engine programs. In Healthcare, our ultrasound team shifted part of their work cadence from make to stock to make to order. This has simplified planning and execution, optimized infrastructure cost and reduced lead time by 30%. Importantly, the team has also increased inventory turns by 50% since 2019, removing the Muda or the waste in the system. And while lean is always important, it's during these dynamic times that lean really contributes and differentiates us in the eyes of our customers. In turn, as we make these kinds of continuous operational improvements, we better serve our customers and set ourselves up to reinvest for growth, driving innovation across GE, where we have significant impact with our customers. Just looking at what we market, sell and service today. At Renewables, we completed the Traverse Wind Energy Center with Invenergy recently. This is the largest wind farm constructed in North America in a single phase. And it's powered by more than 350 of GE's 2-megawatt platform turbines. At Aviation, we're developing technologies for the future. We've recently reached 2 key engine milestones. Our adaptive cycle XA100, with the second engine to test fired up in March, and our first T901 engine tested successfully in March as well, achieving max power, with performance matching our pretest predictions. We're also introducing new products, like Healthcare's Edison digital health platform. Powered by AI, this platform will aggregate data from multiple sources and vendors to help reduce staff burdens and improve the delivery of care. And at the same time, we'll continue to complement these organic investments with inorganic activity to improve our growth potential, whether with an acquisition like BK Medical or a sale, as seen this quarter with part of Steam Power's nuclear business. In summary, we're taking action in this difficult environment to serve our customers while investing in tomorrow's innovation. We're using lean principles to improve our results and our culture. We're confident this work is improving our operational and financial performance while fortifying our competitive positions around the world, ultimately, unlocking further potential across our company. And with that, Carolina will provide further insights on the quarter.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks, Larry. Let's dive right into our results. Turning to Slide 4. I'll provide color on the quarter on an organic basis. Overall, orders were strong when revenue up 1% remained pressured, especially in Renewables due to U.S. onshore. The constraints that Larry detailed, including supply chain disruptions, Russia-Ukraine and China, weighed on our ability to ship, which further hurt revenue. Taken together, these constraints reduced the total growth by about 6 points. Plus, our selectivity actions impacted revenue by another point. It's important to highlight that this was largely an equipment dynamic, and services remained strong, up 15%, with growth in all businesses. Notably, Aviation & Commercial Services rose 37% as the market recovery accelerated. We continued to enhance profitability, expanding our adjusted margin 110 basis points, reflecting the mix shift to higher-margin services and continued cost productivity. On the positive side, both Aviation and Power expanded with more than 300 basis points, driven largely by favorable services mix. Within Power, steam showed significant expansion, reflecting our strategy to exit less profitable segments like new build coal as well as benefits from prior cost actions. There was approximately 200 basis points of additional margin headwinds from inflation and logistics costs net of sourcing actions at the total company level. This was greater than expected, especially in our shorter-cycle businesses like Healthcare. While we achieved positive pricing on deliveries this quarter, particularly in Aviation and Power, it was not enough to offset inflation. Despite the tough macro environment, we are continuing to prioritize investing in the future, with R&D up double-digits. We remain focused on leading with innovation through high-return, strategically differentiated technologies, such as Aviation next-gen programs and Healthcare imaging platforms like the CT Photon Counting. Finally, we increased adjusted EPS 85%, driven by margin expansion. In the standard work from continuing to adjusted EPS, I'd call out 3 additional adjustments this quarter. First, separation costs related to the planned business operation; Second, the asset impairment due to our previously announced plan to sell the nuclear activities within our Steam business to EDF; and third, Russia and Ukraine charges, primarily related to sanction activities at Aviation and certain power businesses. In all, we delivered significant order growth and continued margin expansion this quarter. Moving to cash. Free cash flow was negative $880 million, a use of cash which we expect seasonally. This was an improvement of $2.5 billion year-over-year on a reported basis or up $1.7 billion, excluding discontinued factoring programs. The improvement was largely driven by lower interest expenses and derivatives on reduced debt, as expected, as well as improvement at Aviation and Power, in line with earnings growth and utilization. This was offset by significant headwinds, including supply chain disruptions. This quarter, working capital was the biggest component of negative free cash flow.And looking at the dynamics, receivables for the use of cash, this was driven by growing CSA billings through the quarter at Aviation and supply chain constraints, driving higher deliveries late in the quarter. Inventory was also a use across the businesses of $1 billion. We expected inventory to grow in the first quarter as inventory was built to support second half volume, but this was further impacted by material shortages delaying shipments of finished goods. We still see opportunities to improve both inventory turns and receivable DSOs. In this challenging environment, it is much harder to implement though, but we are still seeing pockets of improvement. Take the Onshore Wind in North America. Our team in Pensacola, Florida held a case in event focused on hub costing. Using standard work, they reduced lead time to prep the hub costing for the assembly line by 80%, so from 9 hours to under 2. And as a result, the team also increased productivity by about 50% and reduced inventory by more than 80%. Contract assets and progress collections were a source of cash. Strength was driven by utilization, outpacing service visits in Aviation and Power as well as progress payments in Aviation and Renewable Energy. In all, our efforts to improve working capital management are slowly taking hold despite the difficult supply chain environment. We see real opportunity for the company to build on this momentum, keeping us on track to reach more than $7 billion of free cash flow for 2023. Our success in strengthening our balance sheet and improving cash flow provides us with more optionality to drive value, both through growth investments and capital return initiatives. To that end, our Board recently authorized up to $3 billion in share repurchases as a potential capital allocation alternative. Moving to the businesses. Aviation results reflect continued recovery in commercial markets as demand remains strong. However, supply chain disruptions presented headwinds to our top line performance this quarter. This will be a key watch item as we progress through the year, but we still expect improvement across the business as deliveries and shop visits ramp. For the quarter, orders grew significantly, with both commercial engines and services up substantially again. Military orders were down, largely due to a tough comp in the previous year when we recorded big CF6 and T408 engine wins. Demand remains robust. Revenue was up due to meaningful growth in Commercial Services, again, the shop visits up 18% year-over-year. Growth in shop visits this quarter would have been even higher without the material availability and fulfillment issues we experienced. Military was up as lean improvements begin to materialize. As we apply the T700 learnings across other programs, we expect tangible progress through the second half of 2022. Commercial engine revenue was down double-digits, driven by supply chain disruptions and lower production rates on GE and X. You can see the impact of wide-body mix here as engine shipments were down just 4% year-over-year, with LEAP narrowbody up 27%. The supply chain constraints were mainly related to labor and material availability due to COVID disruptions in our facilities and at our suppliers, which we're actively managing. Segment margin expanded 310 basis points to 16.2%, primarily driven by commercial services growth as well as positive pricing and productivity. This was partially offset by higher LEAP engine shipments, inflation and additional growth investments. Looking ahead at the remainder of the year, we expect demand to remain strong as the market continues to recover in most parts of the world despite uncertainty in China due to the recent COVID impact. We're managing through this and the supply chain disruptions. We still expect shop visits to ramp through the year up to 25%, driven by the ongoing recovery and customer confidence. And this supports the total year growth of 20% or more. Moving to Healthcare. Market demand continues to be strong, though the first quarter was impacted by supply chain and inflationary challenges. Orders were up high single-digits year-over-year. This was driven by high single-digit growth in Healthcare Systems and mid-single digits in PDx. Elective procedure volumes recovered from January. COVID cases subsided in February and March, with volumes improving sequentially, though hospital staffing shortages continue. Revenue was up 2%, with services growing low single-digit and equipment flat. Growth was impacted by the continued supply chain constraints, primarily in electronics, COVID impact in certain China regions, further limiting what we can buy and ship, and affecting revenue toward quarter end, lower volume in Russia and Ukraine, a region that accounts for about 2% of Healthcare's annual sales. And finally, COVID has delayed site readiness and some equipment installations, mainly due to customers' labor and construction material shortages. Absent these constraints, we estimate that the revenue growth would have been about 7 to 8 points higher or a year-over-year growth of approximately 9%. Segment margin was significantly impacted by increased material and logistics inflation, which net of our sourcing actions resulted in a headwind of about 4 points. We've been leveraging every tool at our disposal within our control. This includes
Larry Culp:
Carolina, thanks. Before I close, I'll briefly touch on the real progress we're making on our plan to create 3 independent investment-grade industry leaders. As always, it starts with our team. As we shared at our Investor Day, we've added 3 new Board members
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone queue to consider your fellow analyst again, and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. We have a hard stop at 9:00. Brandon, can you please open the line?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And from Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe.
Nigel Coe:
I want to turn back to the guide. Obviously, we're recognizing your comments about working to the low end of the range. But can we focus on Renewables and Power -- Renewables and Healthcare based on 1Q performance? Even the low end for those 2 segments looks like a long put. So I'm wondering if we could maybe just in more detail talk about the line of sight you have to better results in those 2 segments, be it pricing, backlog quality or cost reduction, whatever you see out there to improve the performance and get it into those ranges for the full year? How does that second half ramp look?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think we start with Healthcare, Nigel. We're clearly seeing more inflation there. And the price cost challenges we've discussed before I think continues to be top of mind. We're encouraged by what we've seen with respect to improved pricing in the order book here of late. That is yet to match up with what we're seeing in terms of price in our recognized revenue. But that will come. So I think as we look sequentially through the rest of the year, that will be less of a headwind for us as we make that progress. I think we're doing a lot of good work with not only our suppliers, but within our own facilities, to make sure that we're able to match output with demand, right? This is not a demand issue. As you saw, orders in the quarter for Healthcare were up 8%. It really is a throughput dynamic. I don't want to lay all that off on our suppliers. There's a lot that we are doing with them and with our own facilities to improve the reliability of supply. And things are just backed up. We've talked about this before. I think we're making good progress with some of our larger suppliers, if you will, with our -- many of our A parts. But with the B and C part, that continues to be a challenge. But again, whether it be the redesigns, some of the resourcing, some of the better signaling with them, let alone our Kaizen work in our own facilities, I think we'll see through the course of the year sequential improvement in that regard. So we can get that volume out with better pricing over time. Given this demand backdrop, I think you'll see Healthcare improve through the course of the year. I think with respect to Renewables, what we really want to highlight here is that we're fundamentally taking, I think, a more measured and more conservative posture with respect to the outlook in Onshore Wind. There's, I think, considerable uncertainty with respect to the PTC and other incentives. That is creating a bit of a pause with customers. I think the timing of that resolution is unclear. Congress can, and I believe will, take action this year. But at this point, with the passage of time, I think we know that the orders later in the year are likely to be delayed, if not pushed into '23. That will create some pressure for us particularly from an order, and in turn, a cash perspective. But that, coupled with the pricing actions, which I'm pleased by, right, because we do need to see improved price in Renewables, particularly in wind. While it's a short-term pause with respect to demand, it's the right thing for the business, and I would argue, the industry. We're taking some of those tough decisions. But if you look at even ex U.S., we saw a high single-digit increase in our pricing moves internationally in Onshore Wind. That's part of the improvement plan. And again, I think something that you'll see play out through the course of the year. But in the absence of that volume in onshore North America, that creates a more muted outlook for us in Renewables in '22.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
And maybe to sort of -- specific on the second half there. So basically, if you think about it, the beginning of the year, we talked about the orders, and as Larry mentioned, sort of what Healthcare would have been, so we are expecting that growth to come in the second half where we see the orders now. And we also have a seasonality before the first half and the second half of the year, as you know. So there's a big growth of volume and profit and cash just the seasonality through the second half. And I don't talk to that sort of the strengthening of the organic growth that we're seeing through Healthcare. But actually, also within Renewables, we have a second half where we know that the orders in the second half on onshore wind U.S. and a couple of customers are also better, so that will also improve the second half numbers.
Operator:
From Bank of America, we have Andrew Obin.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. So a question regarding your range. You did say that you are holding the range initiated in late January, but currently trading too low. And so 2 questions really. A, what would it take, what kind of circumstances would it take to hit the upper end of the range? Because I do find it interesting that you -- it's still out there. And the second question, when you talk about the range, are you thinking differently about EPS versus free cash flow? Which one is lower risk?
Larry Culp:
Well, let me take the first part of that. Maybe Carolina will take the second part of that. Andrew, I think what we really wanted to make sure people understood here was that we've got a number of pressures, again, inflation. We talked about Renewables a moment ago, and incrementally, the Ukraine-Russia situation. I think depending on the pace of some of these sequential improvements we've just touched on, be it our pricing actions, be it our throughput actions, let alone some of this policy uncertainty being resolved, that could, I think, give us a bit of a lift here beyond the low end of the range. Clearly, throughput is not strictly a Healthcare dynamic for us. We're really encouraged by the strong order books in Aviation, up 30% overall. As you saw, services up over 35%. But we really have a lot of work to do, again, with the supply base and in our own shops to keep pace with that. So we're working that hard every day. I see a lot of progress. But nevertheless, we are building our past due backlog in a number of areas, and we've got to clear that out. But given where we are today, you see how we're framing the year.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes. And if you just compare sort of the EPS range and the cash flow range, what we're commenting on is we're saying that our guide is at the low end. And that goes for sort of both KPIs. I would say from a risk opportunity perspective, there's less risk on the cash flow side than on the EPS side.
Operator:
From Citigroup, we have Andy Kaplowitz.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Carolina, maybe can you give us more color into your assumptions for the cadence of the year, both on EPS and free cash flow? Maybe quantify how might additional supply chain and China pressure impact Q2 versus what are your assumptions for how these pressures might alleviate through the rest of the year? And there, how your own self-help and pricing initiatives might help your earnings progression?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes. Sure. So what we are seeing -- well, we've talked about the Q1 and the pressure that we see there. So what we are seeing and what we're expecting is that it continues through the second quarter. But then, that it starts to ease. And you sort of see the impact of that, I would say, through the businesses, with Aviation being able to sort of ship all the engines that they want towards the second half. We also see, I would say, especially on Healthcare, I mean, 9% organic growth if we've gotten everything out that our customers wanted. So we are expecting that to come towards the second half as well. And that will then obviously impact both profit and cash. If you look at the Renewables side, it's probably more of a sort of slower trend there, highly impacted by the inflation. We do have, as I mentioned earlier, sort of good orders with reasonable margins in the second half. So we have a positive mix also first half to second half, which isn't necessarily inflation. But sort of as we continue to work through, that would also improve. I would say, Power probably least impacted there. We do have a dynamic that we know of that with our backlog, we have more deliveries in the second half. And that's also why we expect to have the, I'm going to call it, typical seasonality, as we saw it last year as well as Power with lower first half volumes versus second half volumes. What I would say, we expect to go through all the businesses through the year and get sort of stronger momentum, it will be price. So the pricing actions that we're working through, especially in the longer cycle businesses, you sort of start to see improved pricing in the order side. And Larry mentioned that earlier today, that even if you take Onshore Wind International, which is an important area for us to increase prices, we actually had high single-digit pricing, for instance, in the first quarter in orders. So as the orders translate into sales and revenue, we'll start to more impact from pricing as we go through the year. I would say pricing cost as a balance for the year, we expect it to be negative. But we do expect it to be offset by the other actions that we're doing in productivity and restructuring.
Operator:
From JPMorgan, we have Steve Tusa.
Steve Tusa:
Just a couple of follow-ups, I guess. First of all, can you just tell us what you currently expect working capital to be this year? If there is any change there. I think you gave precise guidance at the March event. And then I think you just talked about second quarter being -- can you just maybe be more precise about a range -- some sort of a range to frame the second quarter? It seems like there was some confusion coming out of the fourth quarter of '21. And it kind of resulted in a couple of rounds of cuts in the first quarter. Maybe if you could be a little bit more precise relative to the $0.24 and relative to the negative $800 million in free cash, what you would expect for the second quarter.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Steve, thanks for asking 2 questions there. If I start with the working capital, we expect, even at the low end of the guide, to be -- to have a positive impact from working capital. As you know, in 2021, we had a good $2 billion of positive flow of working capital, and we expect that to be an even higher positive flow in 2022. I would say, if you look at it part by part, we still expect high single-digit growth. We expect receivables to be under pressure, where we would expect inventory to improve, and basically the other places of working capital also to be a positive flow for the year. So we would expect that to continue to improve in 2022 as well. And thank you for coming back on the 2Q question. I think I missed that one from you, Andy. Sorry about that. So if we talk about the second quarter where we are, Larry spoke about what's pressuring the first quarter. So clearly, we continued to see that into the second quarter as well. We have the inflation. We have Russia-Ukraine. And we have the renewable situation. And we have the back-end loaded second half as we usually would have. I would say though that there's a lot of good things going on as well, especially the aviation return to flight as we expect that to continue to ramp through the year as well as I talked about the power part as well. If we look for the second quarter specifically, working capital will have the typical seasonality, and that means that 2Q is pressured by working capital. So overall, for the second quarter, we are expecting low single-digit growth, some OMX expansion sequentially and a free cash flow that's better sequentially but still negative.
Operator:
From RBC, we have Deane Dray.
Deane Dray:
Can you provide some more color on what the macro assumptions are that are embedded in the guidance for the year? And just to clarify, and I know this is fast changing, but you said it was a 6 percentage point revenue headwind between Russia, supply chain and the China shutdowns. Are you able to parse out those 3 factors? That would be helpful.
Larry Culp:
Deane, I would say that with respect to the macro, again, I think inflation pressures have become more acute in certain areas. And we're working hard to offset that in a number of ways, both from a procurement, from a utilization perspective, let alone on the price side. We can get into that in more detail if you'd like. Again, I think in Renewables, we're assuming a resolution, but probably a late resolution in that regard with respect to some of the incentives here and the clearing of this pause customers are taking in the wake of price increases that we and others are trying to put across. Clearly, there's an inflationary -- between metals and logistics-based inflationary pressure that has picked up in Renewables as well. And then there's just the Russia-Ukraine dynamic. I think we're really keeping a weather eye out on some of these supply strain constraints, working very hard to offset those, both with our suppliers and in our own shops, right? There's a lot that we can do to, frankly, be a better customer with our suppliers in terms of how we signal what we need and when we need it, if you will, a good bit of pull being implemented now, particularly in Aviation. We're doing Kaizens with our suppliers to help them break bottlenecks where we can. So there's progress probably more with the A parts and the C parts. But we're working hard and keeping an eye out on this while continuing to drive the flow in our own facilities to drive more output where we can. Also watching closely what happens here in China. We know we were hit both from a demand and from an output perspective in the first quarter with the lockdowns, particularly in and around Shanghai. How that plays out? It's not something that we have a handle on. I don't think anybody really does. So those are the 2 things we're watching. But it's really inflation, the dynamics in Renewables in Russia, which are the primary pressures on the range.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes. And when we talked about 6%, so that's the impact on the top line. And 5% of that is from supply chain, and we said 1%, we attribute to sort of the China and the Russia situation.
Operator:
From Melius Research, we have Scott Davis.
Scott Davis:
Good. I wanted to focus just a little bit on Healthcare because it's a pretty important part of the story here. Obviously, the lost sales that you get when you have the problems in supply chain, is there a way to think about -- is any of that lost forever? Or is it just pushed to the right? And are there late delivery penalties or anything in the contracts that would imply that you really can't make money when you do ship those units out?
Larry Culp:
Scott, fortunately, we make very good margins across the Healthcare portfolio, right? It's probably our highest gross margin business of the 4. So when you look at a quarter like the one we just had, where orders were up 8%, shipments were up 2%, we're building backlog. And that's a good thing, normal course. Unfortunately, what's also happening, because we haven't necessarily cleared all the orders we got in the back half of last year, we're also building our past due or our delinquent backlog. That doesn't -- that tends not to carry some of the penalties that you'll see in longer cycle businesses. So we simply have to get that product out, recognize that revenue when we do. And I think you'll see strong impact, both in the P&L and in the cash flow statements. Again, a lot to do, a lot of work to do with our suppliers, a lot of work we can do within our own shops, which we're doing. It's just hard for anybody on the outside to see some of that progress. But fortunately, again, it's not a demand issue, it's really a throughput issue and that's where we're focused. On the inflationary side of things, it -- there is pressure there. And again, that's why Pete and the team have been pushing price where they can. I think we've seen really nice improvement in the order book in that regard. To get that into revenue, of course, we've got to clear this backlog. And in some cases, that is happening now. We're going to need a few more months, I think, in other cases. But that work, again, is underway. And I'm optimistic, when you put all that together, it's a good part of the sequential improvement we should see in Healthcare through the course of '22.
Operator:
From Morgan Stanley, we have Josh Pokrzywinski.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
So just on -- we covered a lot of ground elsewhere, and maybe just to spend a minute on Aviation, if we could. Just seems like there's a pretty wide difference between commercial services and shop visits. Services being up kind of double the shop visit rate. I mean, how sustainable is that number? Is that just some of this higher calorie stuff coming in on wide-body? Like how do we -- how should we interpret that performance variance? And how do you expect that to trend from here?
Larry Culp:
Josh, you're right. I mean, we've got a lot of momentum right now in services. Revenues were up 26% in the quarter in Aviation. It's not simply a function of shop visits. And there's a lot we're doing even there to make sure that our own capacity and our supply lines are set to keep pace with this ramp. Again, a high-class challenge to have, demand is robust. But in addition, we're feeding parts and other elements of the service mix to third-parties, which particularly now as people deal with an inventory depletion as everybody is working down inventories during COVID to get ready for this post-COVID ramp, we're seeing some of that spike in certain areas as well right now. So there's a lot of good going on. And again, I think we're -- our primary challenge is going to be to keep pace with the rest of the year.
Steve Winoker:
Brandon, we have time for 2 more questions.
Operator:
From Goldman Sachs, we have Joe Ritchie.
JoeRitchie:
So one question on -- just a clarifying question and then another quick one on the bridge to 2023. So for this year in 2022, is the 25 to 75 basis points in margin expansion in Healthcare still on the table if we're at the low end of the guide? And then as you think about 2023, clearly, the net income bridge from 2022 to 2023 is widening. I'm just wondering whether any confidence has waned at all just given what's happening externally to get to, call it, roughly $7 billion of net income by 2023?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
So Josh, maybe I'll -- sorry, Joe, I'll start with the first part. So if we look at the Healthcare and the guide that we have, we said 25 to 75 bps. I would say that it will depend on how much the supply chain eases in the second half because of the pent-up demand that we have. There's great orders in there. And getting those out at a good pace in the second half, then we would be able to get to the part of that range. I would say though that on top of that, it's what Larry talked about before, we also have the work done on pricing. We have the work done on productivity and as well as sort of pushing the right mix even in Healthcare. So it's still a possibility, but it's, of course, tougher now with lower part of the range. And for '22 to '23, Larry?
Larry Culp:
Sure. Joe, I think a lot of what we've talked about here in terms of the sequential improvements in those areas that are within our control, really are the most important planks in the bridge to '23. But I obviously start with cash, as you know, and when I think about, if you will, the low end of that $5.5 billion, $6.5 billion guide for cash this year, if we just take the $5.5 billion, it doesn't really take us much to get to that $7 billion figure we've talked about for next year. Again, I think Aviation is moving forward in this regard. And the AD&A headwinds we've talked about for this year, probably $0.5 billion shouldn't repeat next year. We talked a moment ago with Scott relative to Healthcare and the sequential ramp from here. We think demand will continue to be robust. Again, in this post-COVID world, we see investment both on the private and the public side. So as we clear that backlog, probably carry a little bit of that back into next year, we're going to move. And I think with respect to Power, you continue to see steady improvement. In all, what we really need out of Renewables is a little bit of the same, right? Not a dramatic turnaround going into next year. So a lot of work to do still this year, but we think we're on a path for '23, along the lines of what we've discussed previously.
Steve Winoker:
Okay. Last question, please, we'll squeeze in.
Operator:
From Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe just a quick question on the points around offsets to some of the headwinds. You had that EBIT bridge on slide, I think, 112 of the Investor Day deck. You have the price cost inflation bucket and the productivity bucket. Can you just sort of give us dollar numbers on what you're expecting for those two in 2022 now? That price cost aspect, in particular, how big could that headwind be? And what was it in Q1? And then on the productivity side, I didn't really hear you talk about accelerated restructuring today. So I just wondered kind of what's going on, on the productivity side to make sure that you can limit the negative impact of these gross headwinds into '22 and not have them bleed too much into next year.
Larry Culp:
Well, Julian, let me maybe take the back part of that while Carolina grabs Page 112 from the deck in Greenville by a way of reference. I think when we talk about throughput, we're talking -- I mean, implied in that is a productivity element. Now admittedly, we want to make sure in the spirit of SQDC, right, safety, quality first, delivery before cost, that we're getting product out. But a lot of the lean work, again, I think you saw this in Greenville, allows us to create capacity to bust bottlenecks, and do so in a way that isn't throwing a lot of arms and legs at it, that would dilute productivity. So part of the challenge in Aviation and in Healthcare is to make sure that we're true to that. But I think the lean approach, make sure -- well, it's a focus on productivity, first and foremost. I think you did hear in the prepared remarks us talk about the fact that we need to adjust the cost structure in Renewables to the new realities that we're dealing with and some of these uncertainties. So Scott's in that business, I think, 100 days, give or take right now. But he and the team are taking a hard look at where those opportunities are to deal with some of the cost buckets that are clearly in need of review. So that work continues, very much spooled up on that. But again, in the spirit of priorities, we want to make sure we're clearing the supply constraints as best we can and working the purchase cost and the price side of things probably with more energy.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
And actually, Julian, I vividly remember that slide so I didn't even have to look it out because it's really about how we get from our profit, from sort of 4.6 to where we go in 2022. But just start with the first quarter because you asked about that as well. So in the first quarter, we did see positive price, but it did not offset the cost on inflation, even net of the cost actions. But we do expect that to improve through the year as the pricing impact continues to get larger, but also as our work. And we talked about it in 3 different categories. We talked about sourcing actions, we talked about productivity, and we talked about restructuring. So if you take for the full year, I would say, what we say now, price cost we thought would be basically flat. But what we're seeing now, inflation is strengthening, and therefore, we expect that to be a negative net. But we do expect to be able to offset that with the productivity plans that we have as well as the current restructuring that we've talked about. Another big important part to grow the profit is going to be on the volume side, which we also talked about then. And we are saying high single-digit, but the low part of that, that still means reasonable growth. So that's going to be a good important part of how to get to the profit number for the full year. You asked if we're not doing anything more or what are we doing on productivity and restructuring? What we tried to talk to earlier today was that each of the businesses are going through their plans, both on productivity and how to sort of right-size their organization. So I would say, as we're speaking, all teams are working to increase those numbers and increase the actions since they're also seeing the effect of inflation.
Steve Winoker:
Larry, any final comments?
Larry Culp:
Steve, thanks. I would just wrap up here by highlighting the fact that our teams continue to deliver for our customers in what was clearly a difficult operating environment. And we're laser-focused on positioning all of our franchises, all of our strong franchises for the long term. And I'd just like to wrap by thanking our employees and our partners for their hard work and our investors for their continued support. We appreciate your interest, your investment in GE, in your time today. Of course, Steve and the IR team stand ready to assist you as you consider GE in your investment processes.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2021 General Electric Company Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Brandon, and I’ll be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Brandon. Welcome to GE’s fourth quarter 2021 earnings call. I am joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Keep in mind that some of the statements we are making are forward-looking and are based in our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world’s changes. Note that we plan to hold an investor event on March 10 in Greenville, South Carolina at our power and aviation plants to provide more in our 2022 outlook with an up-close look at our lean progress and innovation. We are covering a lot of ground today with the quarter, the year, our reporting changes and outlook. So, we will run a little long. Appreciate your patience and we will still make time at the end for Q&A. One quick note, I have been getting a number of questions this morning on changes – on the changes we are making and the relevance to consensus. Consensus is not comparable to our current numbers given the changes we are about to walk through, most notably insurance, which was about $0.40 in ‘21. So with that, I will hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you and good morning, everyone. 2021 was an important year for GE. We successfully navigated a dynamic environment, delivering solid margin expansion, EPS growth and free cash flow. We focused our portfolio, significantly reduced debt and strengthened our operating performance through lean and decentralization. We have remained on track to achieve our long-term financial goals and we’re confident about where we stand today and where we are headed. We entered 2022 with strength from this continued strategic operational and financial progress, thanks to the dedication and resilience of the entire GE team. We are seeing real opportunities for sustainable profitable growth from near-term improvements in our businesses, especially as aviation recovers and our end markets strengthen. With our transformation accelerating and significant momentum in our businesses, we are playing more offense through both organic and inorganic growth opportunities, such as our recent healthcare acquisitions. It’s this momentum that allowed us to announce in November, one of the most important events in GE’s history, creating three independent investment grade industry leaders focused on critical global needs. We are supporting the recovery of the aviation industry today and creating a future of smarter, more sustainable and efficient flight. We are developing precision healthcare that personalizes diagnoses and treatments and we are leading the energy transition to drive decarbonization. These are big challenges and our customers deserve and demand our best work. At GE, we are committed to creating value for all of our stakeholders and delivering on our purpose of building a world that works. Turning to Slide 3, we materially strengthened our business in 2021 and our balance sheet is in solid shape. We took a large step in the fourth quarter with the close of the GECAS/AerCap transaction, focusing GE on our industrial core and creating an industry leader and strategic partner to airline customers. Using the proceeds, we reduced debt by $25 billion and we are now able to transition to a simpler reporting structure. I will address our 2021 performance versus our outlook on a prior basis for ease of comparison. Then we will bridge these results to our simplified reporting, which we will use going forward. Let me briefly address the fourth quarter and Carolina will provide further insights. We made good progress in the quarter, two highlights of which were orders in aviation and healthcare, up 22% and 7%, respectively. But our top line results were pressured by two dynamics that we believe are temporary. First, persistent supply chain challenges. This was most acute in healthcare, although the impact was felt in all businesses and we are confident in our countermeasures that are underway, including both price and cost actions across GE. Second, we continue to drive commercial selectivity across the board with a particular focus in power and renewables. We are being more disciplined in the projects we choose to underwrite in the broader markets where we participate. This means lower volume with lower risk today, but better margins and less risk over time. Increased selectivity and supply chain headwinds each impacted revenue performance by about 3 to 4 points. Our focus on profitability and cash generation was evident this quarter. Industrial margins expanded 290 basis points organically, led by aviation and power services. And we delivered $3.8 billion of industrial free cash flow. Now, looking at the full year, orders were up 12% organically, with services growth in all businesses and up 12% overall, supporting faster growth in 2022. Industrial revenue was down 2% organically. Increased selectivity and supply chain headwinds impacted performance by 3 to 4 points and 1 to 2 points, respectively. Total equipment revenue decreased 8% organically, while higher margin services grew 4% organically, led by power and healthcare. We ended the year with strong profitability and cash performance as margins, EPS and free cash flow all exceeded our full year outlook. Industrial margin expanded 390 basis points organically. Strong services growth, coupled with cost actions and restructuring benefits, drove improvements in three businesses, led by aviation. This was offset by supply chain headwinds across the company, renewable energy performance and rising inflationary pressures. Solid margin expansion helped drive adjusted EPS up significantly to $2.12. And we delivered industrial free cash flow of $5.1 billion, driven by better earnings and disciplined working capital management. If you add back discontinued factoring, our business has generated $5.8 billion of free cash flow last year. Now, I recognize there are several definitions this quarter as we transition to reporting that reflects a simpler GE. But let there be no doubt, $5.8 billion best represents our operating performance for the year and this is the number from which we will grow in 2022 and going forward. Now, given the impact of renewables on our overall performance, I’d like to spend a moment talking through the business dynamics. Remember, we run this business by its parts
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks, Larry. We are continuing to make GE a focused, simpler and stronger high tech industrial company. Closing the GECAS transaction was a significant milestone that helped us reduce gross debt by $87 billion since the end of 2018 and created an opportunity for us to make reporting changes to substantially simplify our financials and enhanced transparency. This quarter, we moved from a three column reporting format, which showed GE Industrial separately from our financial services operations to a simpler one column format. This means we rolled the remainder of capital, including EFS and runoff insurance into corporate. As we shared before, to provide a clearer view of our core performance, our results will exclude runoff insurance from adjusted revenue, profit and free cash flow. Let me outline what this means. Looking at the EPS and cash flow bridges provided at the right hand side, starting with adjusted EPS of $2.12 in the prior three column format. Now example-runoff insurance, adjusted EPS is $1.71 in the one column format. Looking at free cash flow, there are a couple more puts and takes. Starting with the prior three-column format or what we call industrial, adding back the cash impact of discontinued factoring gets us to $5.8 billion. Transitioning to the one column format and the impact of legacy capital, which is largely interest expense and derivatives ex-runoff insurance and we arrived at $2.6 billion of free cash flow ex-discontinued factoring. Importantly, we expect the $3.2 billion legacy impact from cash flow to be close to $0.5 billion in 2022. This is driven by the significant debt reduction, causing lower interest expense and lower derivatives impact. For ease of comparison, we have provided detailed walks, including quarterly financials on our IR website. Stepping back, after this transition quarter, our new simplified financials reflect the strategic actions we have taken to further focus on our industrial core. Turning to Slide 6, I will speak to all figures on the one column reporting format and an organic basis, unless otherwise noted. Starting with orders, this quarter, we saw strength in aviation and healthcare. We are growing more profitable areas like services, which was up 7%. Meanwhile, equipment was down, driven by large order timing at renewables, including the PTC and power. As we have mentioned, we are being more selective in the commercial deals we are pursuing. For the year, equipment and services orders were both up 12% organically, with services growing in all businesses. We are confident this builds revenue momentum heading into ‘22. While adjusted revenue was down this quarter, services was a bright spot, up double-digits with growth in all businesses. We are managing through various market and operational dynamics, including supply chain challenges in all businesses, especially healthcare as well as the continued impact of increased selectivity. Examples here include lower turnkey scope at power, pursuing deals at the right margins and the exit of new build coal. For the year, these dynamics played through with equipment down and services up. This quarter, adjusted margins expanded 210 basis points, largely driven by Aviation Services. For the year, we achieved 400 basis points of margin expansion, driven by services growth, cost productivity, non-repeat of COVID contract charges and more than $1 billion of restructuring savings. At the macro level, inflation pressure continues. Finally, adjusted EPS was up significantly this quarter and for the year, primarily driven by margin expansion. In all, we are pleased with our orders, margins and earnings performance this year, while we continue to drive profitable top line growth in the year ahead. Strengthening our cash generation through improved working capital management and linearity has been a major focus of our transformation. This will ultimately drive more consistent, sustainable and higher cash flow. Thanks to the focus and discipline of our team, we generated $3.7 billion of free cash flow this quarter, mainly driven by earnings and working capital. This was down $2.1 billion year-over-year ex-discontinued factoring. In addition to improved linearity throughout the year, the decline was primarily driven by the timing of Onshore Wind North America orders due to PTC and healthcare supply chain constraints. As you know, we stopped factoring this year. The fourth quarter impact was roughly $2 billion, bringing the full year adjustment to approximately $5.1 billion. Working capital was the biggest driver of our free cash flow this quarter and focused on two key dynamics. Receivables were a source of cash, mainly driven by continued operational rigor. For example, this quarter, daily management has improved DSO in three of our four businesses, with total company down DSO of 12 days for the full year. On inventory, we reduced 0.5 billion, mainly from renewables. This was due to seasonally higher deliveries and more rigorous material management driven by lean as we adjust for the 2022 market demand. We have more to do, but we are confident this will be a source of cash in ‘22. For the year, free cash flow was $1.9 billion or $2.6 billion ex-discontinued factoring. As previously discussed, the consolidation to one column resulted in a negative impact of $3.2 billion, mostly from interest and derivatives. When you add back the impact of discontinued factoring, we generated $5.8 billion of industrial free cash flow in ‘21. As Larry said earlier, we believe this best represents our operating performance for the year and this is the number, which we will grow from in ‘22 and go forward. Allowance and discount payments or AD&A were net zero this quarter, which is $200 million better than we anticipated due to delayed aircraft deliveries. This resulted in total year ‘21 AD&A flow of a positive $500 million, flat year-over-year. Let’s take a look at free cash flow by business for the year, ex factoring all periods. Aviation delivered an impressive $4.6 billion, up $2.6 billion. This was driven by services strength aligning with the market recovery, improved working capital, including strong customer collections and timing of customer allowance payments. Healthcare delivered $2.7 billion, which was roughly flat ex-biopharma. Higher earnings were offset by working capital pressure linked to supply chain constraints. Renewables was negative $1.2 billion versus breakeven last year. We saw a decline in the U.S. equipment orders due to PTC. The lower down payments drove a $1.5 billion of progress burn, while inventory and receivables substantially improved. Total power generated $1.2 billion, up $600 million, mainly driven by improved earnings and working capital at gas power, including substantial progress payments for aeroderivative orders and backlog growth. This was partially offset by the impact of new build coal, which was about $500 million negative. Overall, our returns are driving working capital improvements, which coupled with higher earnings, will continue to drive measurable free cash flow growth in ‘22. Turning to Slide 8, we have made substantial progress strengthening our long-term financial position. On leverage, our rating agency line net debt-to-EBITDA was 5.4x in ‘21, improving from our estimate of approximately 6x, driven by higher debt reduction. Using a market-aligned measure, which includes bonds, preferreds and cash, as you can see on the slide, we ended ‘21 at 3.3x and expect to be around 2x at the end of ‘22. We expect our leverage to continue to decrease with a clear focus on improving operations and thereby EBITDA. Additionally, we have significant sources available, growing free cash flow, cash on hand of $16 billion and our stakes in AerCap and Baker Hughes, totaling $13 billion. We’ve continued to de-risk and actively manage our pension. We decreased our after-tax deficit by $8 billion, ending the year at $12 billion, driven by strong asset returns and a favorable interest rate environment. Going forward, the strength of our balance sheet positions us well to create three independent investment grade and industry-leading companies and enables us to invest for growth. Moving to our business results, which I’ll also speak to on an organic basis. First, on Aviation, our strong results reflect our underlying business fundamentals and a recovery in commercial market. For the quarter, orders grew double digits. Both commercial engines and services were up substantially again year-over-year. Military orders were down, largely due to a tough comp when we had large wins on F404 and F414 last year. but demand remains strong. Revenue was up. Commercial Services grew significantly. Shop visits was up over 40% again year-over-year and mid-single digits sequentially. Overall scope improved sequentially. MRO purchases were seasonally higher in the fourth quarter. And as usual, we expect activity to decline significantly in the first quarter. Commercial Engines was down double-digits. The driver here was twofold. First, mix continues to shift to more NPI units, specifically with lower production rates on GEMX. Second, we’re navigating continued supply chain and labor availability challenges. Military was also down as output challenges continue, but we are seeing significantly higher first-time yields in the areas where we have fully implemented lean and sustainable process improvement. It’s taking more time to realize the process benefits across all production lines. We will see more tangible and visible progress, particularly through the second half of ‘22. Segment margin expanded significantly year-over-year and sequentially. This was primarily driven by commercial services growth and favorable commercial engines mix. For the year, while Aviation revenue was slightly below our expectations, margin expanded to 13.5% reported. This leverage was supported by solid services as shop visits increased 10% year-over-year, and we reduced operational costs. Looking at ‘22, given our strong fourth quarter margin, a moment on Aviation in the first quarter, we expect margins closer to mid-teens, driven by seasonal decreases in MRO buying behavior and the new engine ramp. Broadly speaking, we continue to evaluate and manage the impact of Omicron and we’re confident in the long-term fundamentals of this business. Moving to healthcare. Looking at our performance, market momentum continues to drive strong demand despite the industry-wide supply chain constraints. For the quarter, orders were up high single digits, both year-over-year and compared to ‘19 levels. This was driven by high single-digit growth in Healthcare Systems and low single-digit growth in PDX. Revenue was down with a mid-single-digit decline in healthcare systems. This more than offset the low single-digit growth at PDX. Service revenue increased low single digits. Industry-wide semiconductor, resin, parts and labor shortages continued across all modalities. Absent these shortages, if we were able to fill all orders, we estimate that organic revenue growth would have been about seven to eight points higher in the fourth quarter or year-over-year growth of 4% and about three to four points higher for the full year or growth of mid-single digits. Supply chain challenges are expected to continue at least through the first half of ‘22, which we’re actively managing. We are confident that these factors are temporary and the business should return to long-term sustainable growth. We’ve seen elective procedures holding through the year-end. But Omicron is having a more recent impact on procedure volumes, it is still too early to quantify, but we’re encouraged to see hospitals better managing routine procedures along with COVID cases. Segment margin declined year-over-year, largely driven by supply chain issues and inflation. Also recall that the fourth quarter was a difficult comp to 2020 as revenue began to rebound significantly from COVID lows. This was partially offset by productivity and higher PDX volume. In addition, we’re seeing evidence of lean-driven operational improvement, including healthcare finance, where our team is lean to reduce the quarter close process to 5 days down from 10 days just 2 years ago. For the year, healthcare delivered strong performance. We proactively managed sourcing and logistics as well as qualifying new parts, for example, to partially mitigate supply chain impact. Orders were up double digits with strength in HCS and PDX. Revenue was up low single digits and margins expanded with 70 basis points. Overall, this strength has enabled us to increase our recent organic and inorganic investments. We continue to reinvest launching a significant number of exciting new products in MR, CT, X-ray, handheld ultrasound, interventional and digital. The innovation we deliver extends beyond clinical capabilities. We also always consider how can we help customers make the most of their investments whether that through efficient digital upgrades at AI, such as our Recon or leveraging a platform like Revolution Apex City to scale existing solutions without significant hardware changes. And on the inorganic side, we completed the acquisition of BK Medical in December, adding fast-growing surgical visualization assets to our $3 billion ultrasound business. Looking forward, healthcare is well positioned for continued profitable growth, targeting 25 to 75 bps of margin expansion as we prepare to stand up the business as an independent company. Turning to Renewables, as Larry said, we’re focused on improving our performance in ‘22 and ‘23. Looking at the quarter, orders were down double-digits, driven largely by PTC uncertainty, delaying investments in the U.S. onshore equipment. Offshore was also down slightly despite several large orders, including Dogger Bank C this quarter. Revenue declined mid-single digits, driven by lower equipment deliveries at onshore and continued project selectivity at grid. Offshore was also lower, driven by project timing. Services partially offset these declines as repower revenue nearly doubled, even X-ray power, Offshore Service grew double digits for the year. Segment margin declined over 500 basis points, largely due to Onshore and grid. Onshore margins declined were negative, driven by our international business. We continue to experience challenge related to our new technology ramp as well as project execution and lower margins on older deals in the backlog, which will run off over the next couple of years. In the U.S., margins improved. This was due to continued productivity and higher repower sales partially offset by lower volume. At Grid, cost actions were more than offset by continued volume declines, largely driven by selectivity and project costs, but both supply chain and inflation impacts were limited this quarter, rising inflation will be a bigger impact in 2022 as we have previously flagged. So for the year, we delivered double-digit order growth driven by Offshore, while revenue and margin both declined. Long-term, we are firmly positioned to lead the energy transition, building on advanced technologies like the Haliade-X, which we will begin delivering in ‘22. Moving to Power, the team delivered strong performance this year, driven by operational improvements, especially at Gas Power. For the quarter, orders were down driven by Gas Power offsetting steam growth, gas decline, facing a tough comp and some customer changes. This quarter, we booked 4 HA units, some of which will run on hydrogen blended natural gas. We see continued momentum on our HA with more than 20 tech selections for the year, which will likely manifest in orders in ‘22 and ‘23. Steam orders were up across equipment and services, driven by the nuclear part of the Steam business. Revenue was down. Equipment was down due to fewer unit shipments, reduced turnkey scope of gas and Steam continued exit of new build coal. We’re navigating supply chain constraints, which significantly impacted deliveries this quarter. Services was up. Gas was up double digits with both CSA and transactional volume growth. One reminder. Due to the aeroderivative joint venture with Baker being deconsolidated effective November 1 gas services revenue no longer includes the sales from the joint venture to Baker Hughes or about 1 billion – $0.5 billion of lower reported annual revenue. Still Services was down on continued selectivity. Margins expanded year-over-year and were up sequentially, largely driven by Gas Power services. All businesses delivered positive margin this quarter. For the year, orders were up low single digits. Gas orders were about flat with services offsetting equipment. We remain selective with disciplined underwriting. Margin in our gas equipment backlog increased by 2 points. And due to selectivity, 80% of our heavy-duty unit orders were equipment only in scope. Power revenue was down 4%. Services saw double-digit growth led by gas, while equipment was down with turnkey revenue about $1 billion lower year-over-year. Since coal equipment backlog also ended below $1 billion and power conversion grew double-digits, margins improved more than 300 basis points. Gas has stabilized, achieving high single-digit margins and power conversion achieved low single-digit margins reflecting operational improvement through the year. Looking at ‘22, we see opportunities to expand margins and improve free cash flow as lean becomes further embedded and Steam continues to exit new build coal. At gas, equipment revenue will increase driven by air derivative growth and heavy-duty normalizing. The HA commissioned units will almost double by year-end versus 2020, supporting future services and cash growth. We expect total power to achieve high single-digit margins in 2023. Now closing with corporate, as we’ve discussed, we’re driving leaner processes and decentralization to reduce functional and operational costs. Compared to our outlook on the prior reporting basis, adjusted corporate costs was less than $1 billion in ‘21, down 30%. Adjusted capital net income was negative $350 million, better than our most recent guide of negative $500 million. As we’ve mentioned earlier, on our one column basis, capital is now part of corporate. So for the year, adjusted corporate cost was $1.2 billion with functions and operations continuing to improve. I’m encouraged at digital with double-digit order growth in the fourth quarter and exciting innovations such as autonomous tuning software. This applies AI to continuously optimize any gas turbine to operate with the ideal combustion and reduce emissions and fuel consumption. At insurance, which is included – excluded from our organic results as this is a runoff business, net income was approximately $450 million. This was up significantly, driven primarily by strong investment results and favorable claim experience in our LTC portfolio, partially offset by higher paid claims in our Life portfolio. Consistent with prior years, we will finalize our annual statutory cash flow test in the first quarter. We currently anticipate that this will be in line with our permitted practice requirements. In discontinued operations, we have our runoff Polish BPH mortgage portfolio with a current gross balance of $2.4 billion. This quarter, we recorded charges of about $200 million, mainly driven by more adverse results in the ongoing litigation with borrowers. This brings the total estimate of losses in connection with this litigation to approximately $800 million. In all, this quarter marked a strong close to 2021. As you can see, lean and decentralization are not just operational levers. They are becoming embedded in our culture and in the business. These operational improvements drove margin expansion, EPS growth and free cash flow generation for the year, and we are continuing to improve. Our strong performance is enabling us to play more offense and drive sustainable, long-term profitable growth. Now Larry, back to you.
Larry Culp:
Carolina, thanks. Turning the page to 22, we are planning to provide more detail during our March investor event that Steve referenced. But today, let me share our company overview. Looking at Slide 10, we’re expecting organic revenue growth in the high single-digit range; organic margin expansion of 150 basis points or more; adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $3.50 a share in a range of $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion for free cash flow. There are a number of key assumptions underpinning our plan for the year. Let me start with Aviation. The continued commercial market recovery will again be one of the most critical factors to delivering our ‘22 outlook. Starting with the market, we’re currently planning for improved GE CFM departures, which we expect to average down about 10% off ‘19 levels and total year shop visits to be up about 20% year-over-year. We expect revenue will increase more than 20% driven by strong worldwide shop visit growth and the ramp of LEAP engine deliveries. Margins will expand despite commercial mix pressure as LEAP engine deliveries increase while we increase our investment in new technology. Looking across our other segments at healthcare, we see low to mid-single-digit revenue growth driven by our commercial efforts and new product launches, tempered by continued supply chain challenges through at least the first half. We’re targeting solid margin expansion this year inclusive of more than $1 billion of R&D spend. In Renewables, we’ve discussed in detail how we’re driving operational improvement today in a smaller onshore wind market. This better execution, along with offshore wind growth will help us deliver low single-digit revenue growth and improved profitability. In Power, continued services strength will drive low single-digit revenue growth while we continue to increase selectivity and exit new build coal. We’re on a path towards high single-digit margins in ‘23. We will discuss cash more on the next slide, but across each business, we’re driving operational improvements that in turn will deliver higher cash flow for the company. Better earnings and working capital management, especially inventory will enable us to grow free cash flow in 2022. For the first quarter, though, we expect free cash flow to be negative. In aggregate, our substantial backlog and large services installed base give us confidence in our ability to deliver on these commitments. We’re focused on delivering profitable growth and stronger cash generation, enabling us to reinvest in growth and play more offense. Moving to Slide 11, our strong $5.8 billion of free cash performance in ‘21 sets us up well to deliver $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion of free cash in ‘22. Looking at the year-over-year dynamics, following last year’s significant debt reduction actions, legacy capital outflows will be dramatically lower, down to $0.5 billion. We expect earnings will continue to grow driven by revenue growth and margin expansion. Excluding the capital impact, this drives the bulk of the year-over-year improvement. We expect working capital to be a source with continued lean efforts offsetting volume growth. We see opportunity to improve inventory turns as we resolve supply chain constraints. At Renewables, we expect a higher impact from onshore progress collections resulting from down payments on new orders and fewer deliveries in ‘22. And as both gas and aircraft engine utilization increases, we expect CSA billings to increase as well. We anticipate AD&A outflow of $0.5 billion or a year-over-year negative impact of $1 billion, as our customers plan for higher deliveries in ‘22. We expect a limited drag from other cash flows, including growth investments supported by higher CapEx. Some color by business compared to ‘21 free cash flow, excluding the impact of discontinued factoring. We expect Aviation will be slightly down, driven by the AD&A headwinds I mentioned a moment ago, while health care, renewables and power all improved year-over-year. This positive trajectory gives us conviction in achieving high single-digit margins or greater than $7 billion of free cash flow in ‘23 with today’s portfolio of businesses. Closing on Slide 12, since our announcement in November, we’ve received very encouraging feedback. Our customers are excited. In hundreds of conversations, they have indicated that the new structure will help us better serve their needs. There is also a lot of excitement within the company. Our teams are highly motivated. They are sharpening their focus and picking up the pace. This makes me even more confident in what we will deliver this year. And our investors are also very supportive and see the value creation opportunity ahead. We have three terrific businesses that are leaders in their respective industries. And independently, they will be able to attract an even broader investor base with distinct sector-specific investment propositions. During the transition, it’s critical that our employees remain focused on serving our customers and driving daily business performance. While nearly all of the company remains fully dedicated to running the business, we’ve established a dedicated separation management office led by Jen Van Bell and the senior leadership team. They are focused on detailed work stream planning and execution to deliver on each business’ critical value drivers, ranging from optimizing their operating model to their capital structures, armed with best-in-class talent and board governance starting with healthcare. We’re also naming leadership for these independent companies. Pete Arduini started as the Healthcare CEO earlier this month. He’s already deeply engaged with our team and customers and has started meeting with investors and analysts, including at recent conferences, where the focus has been on technology and growth. And we’re attracting new talent who are excited to be part of this, including Scott Reese, who will lead our digital business, which will be part of the go-forward energy businesses. So we have hit the ground running to launch three outstanding businesses at scale in places the world needs and wants GE at its best. Each business will be focused and accountable with the agility to respond faster to customer needs, and there will be more opportunities for employees, management teams, Boards and investors who increasingly want to be part of dedicated industries and missions. And these businesses, each with a well-capitalized balance sheet, will enjoy greater capital allocation and strategic flexibility to invest in growth. It’s still early in the process, and we look forward to updating you as we move forward. More broadly, this is the next phase of building a world that works. GE is exceptionally well positioned to create long-term growth and value in our three critical global needs, shaping the future of flight, delivering precision healthcare and leading the energy transition. I’m proud of the work our teams are doing to enable a more sustainable, healthier, cleaner and connected future for all. And we look forward to seeing as many of you as can make it to Greenville, South Carolina in March for our outlook event.
Steve Winoker:
[Operator Instructions] Brandon, can you please open the line?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] From Morgan Stanley, we have Josh Pokrzywinski. Please go ahead.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Josh.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning, Josh.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
So, Larry, I guess a question on Aviation. So it doesn’t seem like there has been as much volatility related to Omicron. You said shop visits were better in the fourth quarter. And I think you even kind of reestablished that ‘23 return to peak revenue. Are we just sort of at a point where either the age of the fleet or the green time situation says that things can move around, but we’re talking about a month or two, not a year or two at this point. Like what is sort of driving this apparent decoupling or what appears to be decoupling in shop visits versus kind of some volatility in air traffic?
Larry Culp:
Well, Josh, I think that’s a pretty good summary in so much as we saw through the course of last summer and early fall, right, folks want to get back in the air. A lot of activity. We knew we would see a slight lag. But through the course of the year, right, our inductions and in turn, our shop visits, increased sequentially at any step along the way. There is a little bit of noise here, I think, with the new variant. But I think you’re spot on is our customers have worn through a good bit of the green time capacity that they had as they prepare for what I think many of us expect to be improved conditions before too long here in ‘22 and then going into ‘23. Everybody wants to be ready. And I think that’s more or less what you see, not only in our results in 2021, but is inherent in what we’ve shared relative to our outlook for 2022. So there may be some timing here or there in a part of the world or with a particular airline. But I think you’re spot on, we are talking months, not years.
Operator:
From Melius Research, we have Scott Davis. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Hey. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Scott.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Davis:
Anyways. Hi. Is there - Larry, can you give us some scenarios or at least your view on given kind of the stability of the businesses, any sense of whether you may pull forward the timing and the break up a bit or perhaps some variables that could pull you one way or another on that decision?
Larry Culp:
Scott, it’s really been, what, 77 days since we announced the spins. I tend to use that framing as opposed to something that has a sadder context like breakup, right? We are excited about what we are doing. I think we really think that when you look at the year that healthcare had operationally, they are in a very good position, getting better every day. Clearly, the supply chain challenges held back revenue in the second half, with 800 basis points to 900 basis points. But all in, we simply have to go through the work, right, over the next year to prepare this business to be independent. And I think if you could just snap your fingers operationally, that would be – that would take less time, but there is a lot of legal and structural financial systems and the rest that we need to work through. So net-net, the plan of record remains today early ‘23. If we can get that work done more quickly, rest assured, I think, we would be motivated and keen to do that. But I think for today’s purposes, the update is really that the logic and the rationale around greater accountability, better alignment, smarter capital allocation holds. The feedback across the board has been strong and supportive. So, we are heads down. We are doing the work. Before too long, we are going to have an outstanding independent GE Healthcare under Pete and company’s leadership that I think we are all going to be quite excited and proud of.
Operator:
From AllianceBernstein, we have Brendan Luecke. Please go ahead.
Brendan Luecke:
Good morning, all. Thanks for taking my question.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Brendan.
Brendan Luecke:
On the renewables side, I am wondering if we are entering a world of, say, prolonged or persistent inflation, what type of countermeasures are you taking in wind, in the grid business maybe around hedging or price escalator contracts? Any color you can offer there?
Larry Culp:
Sure. Brendan, I would say that in many respects, we are going to do three things in the face of inflation. We are not doing them in reaction to these inflationary pressures that we see, but the inflationary pressures make progress all the more critical. I would say first, as you know, we have been reducing our fixed cost structure in a number of ways through restructuring and normal course work in onshore wind and in grid, in particular within renewables over the last several years. It’s one reason that grid’s on the cusp of being breakeven. That’s not the target, but it is a way point towards better margins in that regard. And there is some work that we can do certainly in grid and in wind going forward. On the material cost side of things, we certainly can do more to make sure that we are not only designing in better, more robust cost structures given the inflationary pressures and the price pressures in the industry, but we have retooled our procurement team in that business as well. And we are just trying to make sure that we are working with our suppliers as smartly as we can to get the best combination of quality, delivery and cost possible. So, we are working both of those cost leverage while at the same time, making sure that we are pushing price where we can. We were encouraged by the progress we saw in the upfront order price activity in the back half, particularly in onshore wind. There is more to do there. And rest assured coming into ‘22, the team, both here in the U.S. and across the world, is hard at that work. And that dovetails admittedly a little bit into the selectivity that we talked about earlier in our prepared remarks, not that it’s a reaction to inflation per se. But by being more selective, more disciplined in what we sign up for, being clear about the segments and the geographies that we like versus not given our footprint and capabilities, that will help, I think, drive margin expansion and frankly, in turn, better cash performance here as well. So, there is a lot to do here, and we could go on. But I think it’s important, Brendan, not to lose sight of the fact that the progress we are making in many respects is hitting a bit, given the downturn in the U.S. market, our best market given the PTC lapsing. But that said, when you look medium to long-term, we continue to be big believers in the demand environment for onshore wind, and we think we are well positioned to be an important part of that going forward.
Operator:
From RBC Capital Markets, we have Deane Dray. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey, I would like to circle back on the broader impact of the supply chain disruptions on the company overall. I know in healthcare, you sized, I think it was 3 to 4 percentage points of growth. What would it be for the total company? And have you seen instances of any cancellations out of backlog?
Larry Culp:
Deane, I think that if you look at the total company impact in the quarter, we were down, what, 3% from a revenue perspective. You probably – if you were to adjust for supply chain and selectivity, the way I have penciled it out, you are probably in the mid-single digit range in terms of revenue growth. Now, I don’t like doing that as you well know, right, that helps to understand what’s happening from an underlying perspective. But again, we didn’t see those pressures strictly constraining healthcare. We saw that really across the board, but it was most acute in healthcare. And that’s why I think it’s important to look past or look through the revenue number here in the fourth quarter. Never happy to be down, but I certainly applaud the business’ efforts at being more selective. The supply chain issues are what they are. We are not alone in that regard. But when you look at those dynamics, couple that with the 12% increase we saw for the full year in terms of orders, that is why I think we have got the optimism and the conviction that we do relative to the high-single digit organic growth figure in the outlook.
Operator:
From Vertical Research Partners, we have Jeff Sprague. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Larry Culp:
Hi Jeff. Good morning.
Jeff Sprague:
Hi. Good morning. So, I just wanted to kind of understand a little bit more what you are thinking on kind of normalized cash flow. And the nature of my question is this. We are looking at somewhere around $3 billion in net income this year and $6 billion in free cash flow, right? And 2022 free cash flow already has the benefit of the legacy capital swing in the results. And working capital is negative $9 billion at year-end. So, it’s just – it’s very difficult to see how we bridge even further from this net income number to over $7 billion in free cash flow in 2023. I know there is a lot of adjustments going on and the like, but if there is any way you could provide some context between thinking about where adjusted net income is, how that correlates to adjusted free cash flow, and what maybe are the key adjustments we need to think about?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi Jeff, of course, maybe starting with sort of the guide for 2022. Yes, we have a high cash conversion in 2022. And if you take our EPS guide, the midpoint of that is $3.15, right. If you just compare that with ‘21 to ‘22, that’s actually at the higher end of the range. It’s actually a doubling of EPS. But if we start with the midpoint being $3.15, that’s basically the equivalent of roughly net income of $30.5 billion. You add back D&A of just below $3 billion. Then we talked about working capital, as you mentioned. So, in 2021, we had positive flows of about $2 billion of working capital ex factoring. And as Larry said this morning, we also expect that to continue to be a good source, so you can expect to have almost $3 billion of positive working capital in the number of the midpoint of our guide for 2022. Then AD&A is going to be negative about $0.5 billion of flow in 2022, so to put that back. And then you have the CapEx. And we mentioned earlier today that we expect to increase CapEx. So, it was 1.4 in ‘21, so you checked it up a bit for 2022. And then you have some sort of restructuring and pension payments as usual. And that gets you to the $6 billion of free cash flow, the midpoint of our guide. So, that’s how you get from the mid-EPS to the midpoint of our free cash flow. And when you talk about the working capital part, well, yes, we saw good improvement in 2021, but there is still significant opportunity to do more. I mean, our inventory turns are on 2.7 at the end of the year in ‘21, and we expect that to continue to improve next year, especially with supply chain easing a bit through the half of the year. We saw strong improvement in 2021, but also expect that to continue to improve in 2022. And then you have sort of the arbitrage between CapEx and D&A with CapEx being lower. But overall, I would say that we are, of course, clearly focused on growing earnings, as we have talked to you before. So, although we see working capital being a strong bridge in the next couple of years, we expect conversion to normalize over time. I would say probably still elevated with above 100%, but on a much higher earnings base. And then over time, EPS and free cash flow will be much closer to each other.
Operator:
From UBS, we have Markus Mittermaier. Please go ahead.
Markus Mittermaier:
Thanks for the clarification on the cash flow. It was very helpful. That was the number one question we got this morning. But maybe I can bubble up a little bit to a high-level question on de-levering. You basically said that you are going to end ‘22 at 2x you said earlier in Q4, that target for ‘23 is under 1x. So, what I am wondering given sort of the discussion among investors around deal limbo in the stock, how should we think about capital deployment here over the next say, 6 to 9 months given that it would appear that you have quite some capacity for some capital deployment, be it M&A, be it dividend, be it buyback. I was just thinking around how you develop those equity stories going forward, Larry, some thoughts around that would be helpful?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Markus, let me start. Happy to help with clearing up the cash ones. I am sure we will get many more questions on cash. But going forward, it’s going to be much simpler. So, on the deleveraging, yes, we have made tremendous progress on our debt and leverage, took out more than $50 billion in 2021. And to your point, we are expecting 2x by year-end 2022. I would say and stress that our capital allocation plan for 2022 includes playing offense. And with that, we mean organic, investing in R&D and commercial activities. And you heard us talk about an increased CapEx, but it also includes inorganic actions. And you saw BK Medical and Opus One, so we can expect to see more where that comes from. And at the same time, we are working to make sure that each standalone company has an operating model that maximizes shareholder value. So overall, we are really excited about the opportunities we have to strategically deploy capital as we go forward.
Operator:
From Citigroup, we have Andy Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Hey. Good morning guys.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Maybe just stepping back. We know you have talked about how GE has a number of long recycled businesses, which has allowed you navigate in the inflationary environment. But can you give us more color into the price versus cost dynamic in your business? Specifically, when do you think we see peak pressure on price versus cost, for instance, in renewables? And given, for instance, steel has started to roll, does that help that business as you go into the second half of ‘22?
Larry Culp:
Andy, I would say that if you look at ‘21, price-cost was ever so slight negative for us. And I think as we look at this outlook for ‘22, the same holds. It will be – it will have a different constitution, I think this year because there are places, given the longer cycle nature of certain businesses, renewables, certainly amongst them in certain commodities, and you touched on steel appropriately, right. We are going to see a little bit more headwind, I think just given our cycling through the P&L in ‘22 than we did in ‘21. That said, right, the teams are much further along with respect to both some of the procurement and the value engineering work that helps us offset some of those impressions from a cost perspective as well as some of the price actions that we are taking. I think we clearly saw through the course of ‘21 in the shorter cycle business is healthcare, perhaps being the best example, where that inflationary pressure hit first and we began to see some of the positive effect from our pricing work as well take root. It will be a little bit different as the long-cycle businesses kick in, right, both the bigger ticket, longer cycle pieces of healthcare, but also in power and renewables, aviation as well to a certain degree. So, I wish it weren’t what it is, but as we all know, is probably as tough an operating environments we have seen in decades in that regard. Again, it is what it is. We need to work hard both on the cost and the price aspects, which rest assured the teams are doing as we speak.
Operator:
From JPMorgan, we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Thanks for all the extra disclosure. Just two kind of specific questions. Can you give us kind of a little bit more directional guidance on first quarter free cash? I think you said negative. And will there be any adjustments in that? And then just thinking about the receivables dynamics, will you still be like selling receivables, just kind of holding the balance at close to zero, or will there still be activity on receivable sales in the enterprise on-book, off-book JVs wherever in 2022?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi Steve, so let me start with talking about the first quarter. So, we expect to see the typical seasonality with the first quarter. And basically, we expect it to be negative on the free cash flow in the first quarter. I would say the majority of the businesses are up year-over-year. On cash, while renewables is in a tougher spot because of the purchases made through the second half of last year, and we don’t expect to see big progress payments in the first quarter. So, that’s why we overall end on a negative in the first quarter. And when it comes to receivables, I am obviously speaking for the GE numbers and the GE activity that we have in our numbers and there, we won’t continue with factoring. We basically have, I would say, less than $100 million still that is running off in 2022, but no more new activities.
Operator:
From Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Good morning Larry. I want to go back to the free cash flow. And obviously, the working capital benefits, that’s again, we have seen a lot of questions on this. So, the way to think about this would be the working capital benefits are bridging us to significant EBITDA expansion over the next couple of years. But just wondering, you alluded to improving dynamics in inventory turns. Just wondering if you got any targets around that the next couple of years? And then just maybe you would give us a little bit of help in terms of CapEx, what the CapEx kind of get to? I know that the D part of the D&A is $1.8 billion. Is that a good target CapEx? And then any help on restructuring – cash restructuring in 2023 would be helpful.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
So Nigel, let me talk about that. We will obviously talk much more about this at outlook. So, I won’t give all the detail here and now. I won’t spoil that for our outlook and all of you in Carolina. If we look at working capital specifically, I would say that even if we have seen improvements in 2022, we took down 12 days on the receivables, but there is still more as I see it that we can improve. There are different pockets and sort of different areas have different structures, but there is still improvement to do there. And it’s about $300 million per day as we improve, right. On inventory turns, a bit of the improvement that we have made is hidden by the fact that supply chain challenges sort of got stronger and stronger. And that’s why we have some WIP. We are on 2.7x turns now. I mean there is a best-in-class or a couple of turns better. So, clearly more to do there. And one turn here is equivalent of $4 billion to $5 billion, right. So, there is a lot of money in improving there. But I think it’s going to be important to remember that as we grow as a business, there is a working capital need by a growing company, and that’s why it’s going to be so important to look at the underlying KPIs like DSOs and turns to see what the real improvement is on processes and that’s why we are going to continue to work with that and also continue to share that with you. On the CapEx side, so with 1.4 last year, well, in 2021, and we are expecting that to grow. And yes, it is to be compared with the 2.8. Where that goes over time, I think it’s too early to tell. We have talked about how to manage CapEx in a more effective way and also making sure that the capital allocation is done in a shareholder value maximizing situation. So, we will come back with you on more on that. But overall, still much more to do on working capital, even if we are proud of the accomplishments we did in 2021.
Operator:
From Deutsche Bank, we have Nicole DeBlase. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase:
Good morning guys.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
Can we just talk a little bit about going back to the cadence of results in 2022? I know you guys have spent some time giving us some color on free cash flow. But it’s obviously going to be a pretty unusual year with respect to revenue and perhaps margin expansion as well. So, any thoughts that you could provide on 1Q or first half versus second half organic and margin expansion would be super helpful. Thank you.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
So, Nicole, as I understand it, you are talking a bit about the seasonality, right. So, if we look at – if you compare ‘21 to 2020, of course, they are sort of special years. But if you look at that, you can see that the seasonality overall in the business, you still have lower volumes in the first half versus the second half. You have aviation usually growing through the year. In renewables, we are expecting first half to have lower onshore wind deliveries. Power, we would expect the outages as usual to be more second half loaded. And I would say on healthcare, it’s more the supply chain constraints that make us expect the second half to be stronger than the first half. So, sort of that is how the business is moving. And we talked about the first quarter, so I won’t go back to that again. So, overall, I would say operationally, improving in the art is super important for us, and we are really happy to see the progress we did in 2021 when we expect to continue to improve in 2022.
Steve Winoker:
Hi Brad and we have time for one last question.
Operator:
And from Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks for squeezing me in. Maybe just on the cash flow. Just trying to understand on your free cash flow, will we be able to sort of read that off the 10-Q once you publish that, say, for Q1, or will there still be a sort of massive of adjustments and maybe call out what the main ones are to get from a sort of published free cash and a cash flow statement in a filing to get to your sort of $6 billion-ish number? And maybe just any thoughts on sort of separation costs, cash flow impact in 2022? I assume that the ex out of the free cash flow guide, but maybe just any clarity on that, please?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
So Julian, yes, you will be able to follow the cash flow and the different numbers that we have in the K. I would say, though, that 5.8 is the number to look at as what we achieved operationally for 2021. So, that is how a jumping off point. But you will be able to see what it looked like on the different pieces. So, no worries about that. And to your second question about separation costs, you are absolutely right. You will see that separately and it will be adjusted out of earnings.
Steve Winoker:
Larry, any final comments?
Larry Culp:
Sure, Steve. This was an incredibly important year for GE. I am proud of how our team continued to execute for our customers, and we are excited about the work that lies ahead. I just want to thank all of our employees and our partners for their incredible efforts and our investors for their continued support. We appreciate your interest today, your investment in our company and the time you shared with us this morning. Steve and the IR team stand ready to assist as you consider GE in your investment processes. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is John, and I'll be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. And I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, John. Welcome to GE's third quarter 2021 earnings call. I am joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Note that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes. With that, I'll hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thanks and good morning, everyone. Our team delivered another strong quarter as orders, margins and cash improved. While the aviation market is showing continued signs of recovery and contributed to the quarter, our focus on continuous improvement and lean is driving broader operational and financial progress. At the same time, we're managing through significant challenges that we'll discuss further today. Starting with numbers on Slide 2, orders were robust, up 42%, with growth in all segments in both services and equipment, reflecting continued demand for our technology and solutions and better commercial execution. Industrial revenue was mixed. We saw a continued strength and services up 7% organically. Aviation improved significantly benefiting from the market recovery. Equipment was down 9% organically, largely due to supply chain disruptions, the forward ventilator comparison in healthcare, and as expected, lower power equipment. Adjusted industrial margin expanded 270 basis points organically, largely driven by operational improvement in many of our businesses, growth in higher-margin services at Aviation and Power, and net restructuring benefits. Adjusted EPS was up significantly driven by Industrial. Industrial free cash flow was up $1.8 billion, ex discontinued factoring programs due to better earnings, working capital, and the short-term favorable timing impact of aircraft delivery delays. Overall, I'm encouraged by our performance, especially at Aviation. Let me share what gives me -- gives us confidence there. First, our results reflect a significant improvement in near-term market fundamentals. Departure trends are better than the August dip and have recovered to down 23% of '19 levels. We expect this acceleration in traffic to continue as travel restrictions lift and vaccination rates increase. Our results also reflect operating improvements. For example, at Aviation's overhaul shops, our teams have used lean to increase turnaround time by nearly 10% and decrease shop inventory levels by 15% since the fourth quarter of 2020. These improvements are enabling us to get engines back to customers faster and at a lower cost. No business is better positioned than GE Aviation to support our customers through the coming upcycle. We're ready with the industry's largest and youngest fleet, while we continue to invest for the next-generation with lower carbon technologies, such as the CFM RISE program. This platform will generate value for decades to come. We're also clearly navigating headwinds as we close this year and look to 2022. We're feeling the impact of supply chain disruptions in many of our businesses with the largest impact to date in healthcare. Based on broader industry trends, we expect Company-wide pressure to continue at least into the first half of next year. Our teams are working diligently to increase supply by activating dual sources, qualifying alternative parts, redesigning and requalifying product configurations and expanding factory capacity. We're also focused on margins as we deploy lean to decrease inventory and costs, as well as implement appropriate pricing actions and to reduce select discounts. Our C team – our CT team in Japan, for example, has been experiencing higher customer demand. So we're making our production even more efficient to help offset the challenge of delayed inputs. The team used value stream mapping, standard work, and quarterly Kaizens to reduce production lead time once parts are received, by more than 40% from a year ago. And there's line of sight there to another 25% reduction by the end of the year. While this is a single example within healthcare, taken together with other efforts and over time, these add up. At renewables, we're encouraged by the U.S. administration’s commitment to offshore wind development. However, in Onshore Wind, the pending U.S. production tax credit extension is creating uncertainty for customers and causing much less U.S. market activity in preparation for 2022. As we've shared a blanket extension, while a well-intended policy has the unintended consequence of pushing out investment decisions. In our business given the lag between orders, and revenue, the impact will continue through the fourth quarter and into '22. This environment, along with inflation headwinds picking up next year, makes renewables ongoing work to improve cost productivity even more urgent. Given these puts and takes, we now expect revenue to be about flat for the year, driven by changes to some of our business outlooks, which Carolina will cover in a moment. Importantly, even with lower revenue, we're raising our margin and EPS expectations, underscoring improved profitability and services growth, and reflecting our strengthened operations. And we're narrowing our free cash flow range around the existing midpoint. Looking further out to next year, as our businesses continue to strengthen, we expect revenue growth, margin expansion, and higher free cash flow despite the pressures that we're managing through currently. We'll provide more detail as usual, during our fourth quarter earnings and outlook calls. Moving onto slide 3. Challenges aside, our performance reflects the continued progress in our journey to become a more focused, simpler, stronger, high-tech industrial. The GECAS and AerCap combination is a tremendous catalyst, enabling us to focus on our industrial core and accelerate our deleveraging plan. Just last week, GE and AerCap satisfied all regulatory clearances for the GECAS transaction and we're now targeting to close November the 1st. We'll use the proceeds to further reduce debt, which we now expect to reach approximately $75 billion since the end of 2018. This is enabling GE to look longer-term even as we execute our deleveraging. As we accelerate our transformation, lean and decentralization are key to improving operational results. This quarter, we hosted our global Kaizen week in each of our businesses with over 1,600 employees participating. John Slattery, the CEO of GE Aviation; and I joined our military team in Lynn, Massachusetts for the full week, while our business CEOs joined their teams across the globe. Lynn is fundamentally about going to Gemba, where the real work is done. And is best learned in operations, where you can see it, touch it, smell it firsthand. And in Lynn, we were there to serve those closer to the work, our operators. Our mission was to improve first-time yield on mid frames, a key sub assembly of the military engines we produce in Lynn, whose stubborn variability has been directly and negatively impacting our on-time delivery. By the end of the week, we had improved processes for welding and quality checks on mid-frame parts, improvements that we're convinced will help us reach our goals for military on-time delivery by the middle of next year, if not earlier. And we can improve our performance on the back of these changes for years to come. There are countless other examples of how our teams are leveraging lean to drive sustainable, impactful improvements in safety, quality, delivery, cost, and cash. They reflect how we're running GE better and how we're sustaining these efforts to drive operational progress and lasting cultural change. Our significant progress on deleveraging and operational execution sets us up well to play offense in the future. Our first priority, of course, is organic growth. That starts with improving our team's abilities to market, sell, and service the products we have. There are many recent wins across GE this quarter, but to highlight one, our Gas Power team delivered, installed, and commissioned four TM 2500 aeroderivative gas turbines in only 42 days to complement renewable power generation for California's Department of Water Resources during peak demand season. These turbines, using jet engine technology adapted for industrial and utility power generation, start and ramp in just minutes, providing rapid and reliable intermittent power, helping enhance the flexibility and sustainability of California's grid. And we're bolstering our offerings with innovative new technology that serves our customers and leads our industries forward. For example at Renewables, our Haliade -X offshore wind turbine prototype operating in the Netherlands, set an industry record by operating at 14 megawatts. More output than has ever been produced by any wind turbine. From time-to-time we'll augment our organic efforts with inorganic investments. Our recently announced acquisition of BK Medical represents a step forward, as we advance on a mission of precision healthcare. Bringing BK's intraoperative ultrasound technology together with the pre, and post operative capabilities in our ultrasound business creates a compelling customer offering across the full continuum of care, from diagnostics through surgical, and therapeutic interventions, as well as patient monitoring. Not only does BK expand our high performing $3 billion ultrasound business, but it also is growing rapidly with attractive margins itself. We expect the transaction to close in '22, and I'm looking forward to welcoming the BK team to GE. All told, we hope that you see that GE is operating from a position of strength today. We delivered another strong quarter and we're playing more offense, which will only accelerate over time. We're excited about the opportunities ahead to drive long-term growth and value. So with that, I'll turn it over to Carolina who will provide further insights on the quarter.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks, Larry. Our results reflect our team's commitment to driving operational improvement. We're leveraging Lean across GE and our finance function. In addition to Kaizen Week that Larry mentioned, over 1,800 finance team members completed a full waste workweek, applying Lean, and digital tools to reduce non-value added work by 26,000 hours, and counting. For example, at renewables, our team streamlined, and automated account reconciliations, into Company settlements, and Cash applications. This type of transactional Lean saves up time. So we can focus more on driving higher-quality, faster operational insights, and improvements, helping our operating teams run the businesses more efficiently. Looking at Slide 4, I'll cover on an organic basis. Orders were robust, up 42% year-over-year, and up 21% sequentially on a reported basis building on revenue momentum heading into '22. Equipment and Services in all businesses were up year-over-year with strength in Aviation, Renewables, and Healthcare. We are more selective in the commercial deals we pursue with a greater focus on pricing in an inflation environment, economic turns and cash. Together with targeting more profitable segments like services, we're enhancing order quality to drive profitable growth. Revenue was up sequentially with growth in services driven by Aviation and Power but down year-over-year. Equipment revenue was down with the largest impact in Healthcare and power. Overall, mix continues to shift towards higher margin services, now representing half of the revenue. Adjusted Industrial margins improved sequentially, largely driven by Aviation services. Year-over-year, total margins expanded 270 basis points driven by our Lynn efforts, cost, productivity, and services growth. Both Aviation and Power delivered margin expansion, which offset the challenges in-house care and renewables. Consistent with the broader market we are experiencing, inflation pressure, which we expect to be limited for the balance of '21. Next year, we anticipate a more challenging inflation environment. The most adverse impact is expected in its onshore ring due to the rising cost of transportation and commodities such as steel and [inaudible 00:13:59] impacting the entire industry. We are taking action to mitigate inflation in each of our businesses. Our shorter-cycle businesses felt the impact earliest, while our longer cycle businesses were more protected, given extended purchasing and production cycles. Our Service business is full in between. Our terms are working hard across functions to drive cost countermeasures and improve how we bid on businesses, including price escalation. Finally, adjusted EPS was up 50% year-over-year, driven by industrial. Overall, we are pleased with the robust demand evidenced by orders growth and average year-to-date margin performance. While we're navigating headwinds caused by supply chain and PTC pressure, this has impacted our growth expectations. We're now expecting revenue to be about flat for the year. However, due to our continued improvements across GE, we are raising our '21 outlook for organic margin expansion to 350 basis points or more and our adjusted EPS to a range of $1.80 to $2.10. Moving to Cash. A major focus of our transformation has been strengthening our cash flow-generation through better working capital management and improved linearity. Ultimately, to drive more consistent and sustainable cash flow. Our quarterly results show the benefits of these efforts. Industrial free cash flow was up 1.8 billion X discontinued factoring programs in both years. Aviation, Power and Heathcare all had robust free cash flow conversion in the quarter. Cash earnings, working capital, and allowance and discount payments for AD&A driven by the deferred aircraft delivery payments contributed to the significant increase. Looking at working capital, I'll focus on receivables. We saw the largest operational improvement. Reservable were a source of cash up 1.3 billion year-over-year ex the impact of discontinued factoring, mainly driven by Gas Power collections. Over all, strengthening our operational muscles in billings and collections is translating into DSO improvement, as evidenced by our total DSO, which is down 13 days year-over-year. Also positively impacting our free cash flow by about 0.5 billion in the quarter was AD&A. Given the year-to-date impact and our fourth-quarter estimate aligned with the current airframe or aircrafts delivery schedule, we now expect positive flow in '21, about 300 million, which is 700 million better than our prior outlook. This year's benefit will reverse in 2022. And together with higher aircraft delivers scheduled expectations, will drive an outflow of approximately 1.2 billion next year. To be clear, this is a timing issue. You'll recall that we decided to exit the majority of our factoring programs earlier this year. In the quarter, discontinued factoring impact was just under 400 million which was adjusted out of free-cash flow. The fourth-quarter impact should be under $0.5 billion, bringing our full year factoring adjustment to approximately $3.5 billion. Without the factoring dynamics, better operational management of receivables has become a true cross-functional effort. Let me share an example. Our Steam Power team recently shifted to this from a more siloed approach. Leveraging problem-solving, and value stream mapping, they have reduced average billing cycle time by 30% so far. So only two quarters in more linear business operations, both up and downstream are starting to drive more linear billings, and collections. While we have a way to go more linear business operations drive better, and sustainable free-cash flow. Year-to-date is continuing factoring across all quarters free-cash flow interest 4.8 billion year-over-year. In each of our businesses, our terms are driving working capital improvements, which together with higher earnings, make a real and measurable impact. Taking the strong year-to-date performance, coupled with the headwinds we've described, we're narrowing our full-year free cash flow range to 3.75 billion to 4.75 billion. Turning to slide 6, we expect to close the GECAS transaction on November 1st. This strategic transaction not only details our focus on our industrial core, but also enables us to accelerate our debt reduction with approximately 30 billion in consideration. Given our deleveraging progress, and cash flow improvement to date, plus our expected actions and better partial performance, we now expect a total reduction of approximately 75 billion since the end of 2018. GE will receive a 46% equity stake in one of the world's leading Aviation lessors, which we will monetize as the Aviation industry continues to recover. As we've shared, we expect near-term leverage to remain elevated, and we remain committed to further debt reduction in our leverage target over the next few years. On liquidity, we ended the quarter with 25 billion of cash. We continue to see significant improvements in lowering these cash [inaudible 00:19:17], currently at 11 billion down from 13 billion. In the quarter, [inaudible 00:19:23] decreased due to reduced factoring and better working capital management. This is an important proof point that we are able to operate with lower and more predictable cashness trading opportunities for high return investments. Moving to the businesses, which I'll also speak to on an organic basis. First on Aviation. Our improved results reflect a significantly stronger market. Departure trends recovered from August is early, but the pickup that began in September is continuing through October. Better departures and customer confidence contributed to higher shop visits and spare part sales than we had initially anticipated. The impact of green time utilization has also lessened. We expect this profited trance will continue into the fourth quarter. Orders were up double-digits. Both commercial engines and services were up substantially again, year-over-year. Military orders were also up reflecting a large Hindustan Aeronautics order for nearly 100 F414 engines along with multiplism and hundred orders. For revenue, commercial services was up significantly with strength in external spares, shop visit volume was up over 40% year-over-year and double-digit sequentially, given overall scope slightly improved. We continue to high concentration of narrow-body and regional aircraft shop visits. Commercial engines (ph) was down double-digits with lower shipments. Our mix continues to shift from legacy to more NPI units, specifically loop and lower production risks. Next, also navigating through material fulfillment constraints amplified by increased industry demand, which impacted deliveries. Military was down marginally. Unit shipments were flat sequentially, but up year-over-year. Without the delivery challenges, military revenue, growth would have been high single-digits this quarter. Given this continued impact, military growth is now expected to be negative for the year. Segment margin expanded significantly, primarily driven by commercial services and operational cost reduction. In the fourth quarter, we expect margins to continue to expand sequentially, receiving our low double-digit margin guide for the year. We now expect '21 shop visits to be up at least mid-single digit year-over-year versus about flat. Our solid performance, especially in Services underscores our strong underlying business fundamentals after commercial market recovers. Moving to Healthcare. Market momentum is driving very high demand while we navigate supply chain constraints. Government and private health systems are investing in capital equipment to support capacity demand, and to improve quality of care across the markets. Building on a 20-year partnership, we recently signed a five-year renewal to service diagnostic imaging, and biomedical equipment with HCF Healthcare, one of the nation's leading providers of healthcare. Broadly, we're adapting to overarching market needs of health system efficiency, digitalization, as well as resiliency, and sustainability. Against that backdrop, orders were up double-digits both year and versus '19, with strength in healthcare systems, up 20% year-over-year, and PDx high single-digits. However, revenue was down with a high single-digit decline at HCF more than offsetting the higher single-digit growth we select PDX. You'll recall that last year, the Ford ventilator partnership for about 300 million of Life Care Solutions revenue. This Comp negatively impacted revenue by 6 points. And thinking about the industry-wide supply shortages, we estimate that growth would have been approximately 9 points higher if we were able to fill all orders. And these challenges will continue into at least the first half of '22. Segment margin declined year-over-year, largely driven by higher inflation and lower life care solutions revenue. This was partially offset by productivity and higher PDx volume. Even with the supply chain challenges, we now expect to deliver close to a 100 basis points of margin expansion as we proactively manage sourcing and logistics. Overall, we're well-positioned to keep investing in future growth, underscoring our confidence in profit and cash flow generation. We're putting capital to work differently than in the past, supplementing organic growth with inorganic investments that are good strategic fit. These are focused on accelerating our precision health mission like BK Medical. And we're strengthening our operational, and strategic integration muscles. At Renewables, we're excited by our long-term growth potential, supported by new technologies like HalioDx, and fibrosis, and our leadership in energy transition despite the current industry headwinds. Looking at the market since the second quarter, the pending PTC expansion has caused further deterioration in the U.S. onshore market outlook. Based on the latest [inaudible 00:24:36] forecasts for equipment and repower, the market is not expected to decline from 14 gigawatts of wind installments this year to approximately 10 gigawatts in 2022. This pressures orders on cash in '21. In offshore wind, global momentum continues and we're aiming to expand our commitment pipeline through the decade and modernizing the grid is a key enabler of the energy transition. And we saw record orders driven by offshore with the project-driven profile will remain uneven. This leads to continued variability for progress collections. Onshore orders grew modestly driven by services and international equipment, partially offset by lower U.S. equipment due to the PTC dynamics. Revenue declined significantly. Services was the main driver largely due to fewer Onshore repower deliveries. X-repower onshore services was up double-digits. Equipment was down to a lesser extent, driven by declines in the U.S. onshore and grid. This was partially offset by continued growth in international onshore and offshore. For the year, we now expect revenue growth to be roughly flat. Segment margin declined 250 basis points. Onshore was slightly positive, but down year-over-year. Cost reductions were more than offset by lower U.S. repower volume, mixed headwinds as new products ramp and come down the cost curve, as well as supply chain pressure. Offshore margins remain negative as we work through legacy projects and continue to ramp HalioDx production. At grid, better execution was more than offset by lower volume. Due mainly to the PTC impact, we now look -- we now expect Renewables ' free-cash flow to be down a negative this year. Looking forward, while we are facing headwinds, we're intently focused on improving our operational performance, profitability, and cash generation. Moving to Power, we're performing well. Looking at the market, global gas generation was down high single-digits due to price driven gas-to-coal switching. Yes, you heard me right, gas-to-coal switching. However, GE gas turbine utilization continues to be resilient as megawatt hours grew low single-digits. Despite recent price volatility, gas continues to be a reliable, and economic source of Power generation. Over time as more baseload COO comes offline and where the challenges of intermediate renewables power customers continue to need gas. Through the next decade, we expect the gas market to remain stable with gas generation growing low-single-digits. Orders were driven by Gas Power Services, aero, and steel each up double-digits. Gas equipment was down despite bookings six more heavy-duty gas turbine as timing for HS remain uneven across quarters. We continue to stay selective with disciplined underwriting to grow our installed base. And this quarter we booked orders for smaller frame units. Demand for aeroderivative p ower continues. For the year, we expect about 60 unit orders up more than 5 times year-over-year. Revenue was down slightly. Equipment was down due to reduced turnkey scope at Gas Power and the continued exit of new build coal at [inaudible 00:28:02]. Consistent with our strategy, we are on track to achieve about 30% turnkey revenue as a percentage of heavy-duty equipment revenue this year. Down from 55% in 2019, a better risk return equation. At the same time, Gas Power shipped 11 more units year-over-year. Gas Power Services was up high-single digits trending better than our initial outlook due to strong seasonal volume. We now expect Gas Power services to grow high-single digits this year. Lynn services was also up. Margins expanded year-over-year, yet we're down sequentially due to outage seasonality. Gas power was positive and improved year-over-year driven by services growth and arrow shipments. We remain confident in our high single-digit margin outlook for the year. Still this progressing through the new bids coal exit and by year-end, we expect our equipment backlog to be less than a billion compared to 3 billion a year-ago. Power conversion was positive and expanded in the quarter. Overall, we're encouraged by our steady performance. Power is on track to meet this outlook, including high single-digit margins in 23 plus. Our team is focused on winning the right order, growing services, and increasing free cash flow generation. Moving to Slide 8. As a reminder, following the GECAS close in the fourth quarter, we will transition to one column reporting and rolling the remainder of J Capital into corporate. Going forward, our results, including adjusted revenue, profit, and free cash flow will exclude insurance. To be clear, we continue to provide the same level of insurance disclosure. In all this simplifies the presentation of our results as we focus on our industrial core. At Capital, the loss in continuing operations was up year-over-year, driven primarily by nonrepeat of prior year tax benefit, partially offset by the discontinuation of the preferred dividend payments. At Insurance, we generated 360 million net income year-to-date, driven by positive investment results and Klimt's steam favorable to pre - COVID level. However, this favorable trend climbs are slowing in certain parts of the portfolio. As planned, we conducted our annual premium deficiency tests, also known as the Loss Recognition Test. This resulted in a positive margin with no impact to earnings for a second consecutive year. The margin increase was largely driven by higher discount rates reflecting our investment portfolio realignment strategy with higher allocation towards select growth assets, claims cost curves continue to hold. In addition, the teams are preparing to implement the new FASB Accounting Standard consistent with the industry. And we are working on modeling updates. Based on our year-to-date performance, Capitals still expects a loss of approximately 500 million for the year. In discontinued operations, Capital reported a gain of about 600 million, primarily due to the recent increase in air cap stock price, which is updated quarterly. Moving to Corporate. Our priorities are to reduce functional and operational costs as we drive linear processes and embrace decentralization. The results are flowing through with costs down 7 digits year-over-year. We are now expecting corporate costs to be about a billion for the year. This is better than our prior 1.2 to 1.3 billion guidance. After you see, Lean and decentralization aren't just concept. They are driving better execution and culture change. They are supporting another strong quarter, and they are enabling our businesses to play more often, and ultimately, they're driving sustainable long-term profitable growth. Now, Larry, back to you.
Larry Culp:
Carolina, thank you. Let's turn to Slide 9. Our teams continued to deliver strong performance. We are especially encouraged by our earnings improvement, which makes us confident in our ability to deliver our outlook for the year. You've seen today that our transformation to our more focused, simpler, stronger, high-tech industrial is accelerating. We're on the verge of closing the GECAS - AerCap merger, a tremendous milestone for GE. Stepping back, our progress has positioned us to play offense. We just wrapped up our annual strategic reviews with nearly 30 of our business units. This compliment our quarterly operating reviews, but have a longer-term focus as we answer two fundamental questions
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts again and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. John, can you please open the line?
Operator:
Thank you. And our first question is from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning everyone. Maybe my question would just be around free cash flow. So you've mentioned that free cash flow would be up in 2022. I just wanted to make sure is that sort of comparable with that $3.75 billion to $4.75 billion guide for this year, or is that sort of apples-to-apples once you roll in what's left of capital into the cash flow for this year? And a related question is, you talked on Slide 9 about the high single-digit cash flow margin over time. Just wanted to make sure there's no -- that does not mark a shift from the sort of 2023 plus timeframe you've mentioned before. Thank you.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
So Julian, maybe let me start then. You talked about the 2022 remarks that we made. Like-for-like, we expect industrial free cash flow to step up. We expect our business earnings to improve. We expect that through top line growth and margin expansion that will turn into profit, which we then believe -- well, which we then we'll say go to cash, right? Then if you look a little bit outside of earnings, we do have a couple of significant cash flow items to think about. We have mentioned the supply chain headwinds that we think will continue into next year. So that will hamper both on the profitability, but also on inventory. And then we have the headwind of AD&A. We talked about that in this year, it's going to be more positive, but it's going to be a big headwind in next year. And this is really only a timing effect because of when customers expect to deliver the aircrafts, right? And overall, my last comment on industrial side would be, if you look at working capital, with that growth in mind, we will need some working capital to fund the top line growth, right? But on the other hand, we also expect to continue to improve working capital management, for example, in receivables, and to some extent also to inventory. Within that, we do see improvement in linearity as possible as well. So that's like-for-like on the Industrial side. If we then add the consolidated capital of basically what's left of capital then consolidated in like-for-like, we expect it to also increase. And the increase on top of that would mainly been driven by the lower interest that we will see from debt reduction. So we are confident in the overall growing trajectory, both investor like-for-like as well as including capital.
Larry Culp:
I would say just to the second question, the simple short answer is no change whatsoever relative to our expectations with respect to high single-digit free cash flow margins, right? When we talk about that, let's just take for simplicity sake 8% on a revenue base akin to where we were in 2019, right? That pencils out on an $85 billion to $90 billion revenue base to say $7 billion of free cash. That's really going to be on earnings, lower restructuring spend, and better working capital management story. Clearly, from a profit perspective, that's going to be an Aviation-led dynamic healthcare right in behind it, and then we still anticipate that we turn Power profitable, and we get a couple of billion dollars of profit from Power. You deduct, call it, $1.4 billion for corporate, but you get close to it, let's call it, $10 billion of op profit, convert that to net of interest and taxes at 90%, you get that same $7 billion figure. So we think we're on our way, but again, the short answer is, no change.
Operator:
And our next question is from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Steve Winoker:
Good morning, Nigel.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Great. Thanks for detail on the AD&A next year, $1.2 billion. Just - I just want to confirm that -- I seem to expect some help from progress collections in Aviation next year, assuming we're in a recovering order environment. But the real question is on the insurance testing in 3Q, and I know this is a GAAP, not a STAT test, but I think the 10-K color and an 11% surplus. So I'm just curious, Carolina, what does that mean for future cash payments going forward? At what point does the service become so large that that could have some good news for cash-in going forward?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks for the question, Nigel. Yes, so it is a factor. So we did do the testing on the LRT, and we had good news I would say as expected. And when you have a positive margin that means no charge to the P&L, and the margin was 11% positive, which is significantly higher than what we have seen. It was mainly driven by the discount rate increase. It increased from 5.7% to 6.15%. And I would say that increase was really driven by asset allocation and really our plan to increase the amounts allocated to growth assets, where we’re going from 9% to 15%. The other variables had, like morbidity, mortality, inflation in premium, they were a small impact. We're really happy with that. And your question then on top of that sort of for the CFT, so the CFT or the cash flow testing, that is what decides if there is a need to add cash to the insurance. I would say like this, it's not one-to-one. The variables are similar to LRT, but they are used under moderately adverse conditions. I would say the modeling will happen beginning of next year as usual. We will look at our investments portfolio realignment and the changes factored into that model. We also look at the future cash flow, but it could have some adverse effect because we're using more granular assumptions. But I would say overall, the good news from the LRT bodes very well for the CFT, but it's not one-to-one.
Operator:
And our next question is from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Jeff.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi, Jeff.
Steve Winoker:
Hi, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Hello. Hope everybody is well. Larry or Carolina, can we talk a little bit more about price cost? I think your message on the pressures into the first half are pretty clear, but kind of this kind of question of kind of cost in the backlog, so to speak, that needs to work its way through the system. I wonder if you could just kind of size this a little bit for us or put it in the context of what you're actually capturing on price, say, on current orders. Maybe what kind of the price/cost total headwind or tailwind is in 2021 versus what you're kind of expecting in 2022 based on what you can see in the backlog?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
So Jeff, why don't I start and then Larry, you can jump in.
Larry Culp:
Sure
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
If we start with inflation, I just want to reiterate that of course we hit by inflation, but it's a bit different depending business by business. We have the shorter cycle businesses like healthcare, where we are feeling the impact faster than the longer cycle like Power and we have sort of Services in between. On the longer cycle ones, they are more protected because of the, I would say, the extended purchasing and production cycles. We are seeing the main pressures on commodities like steel, but also logistics pressure is increasing, right? Specific to 2021, we have felt inflation, but so far we've been able to offset it, and we expect the impact for the full year to be limited in '21, the net impact. For 2022, we do expect to see significant pressure, and I will say top of list priorities for next year. And we're taking both price and cost countermeasures.
Larry Culp:
I think that's right and as you would imagine in an environment like this, we're really working the value add, value engineering the more traditional cost action aggressively. We're working with the supply basis feverishly as we can, both on availability and on costs. That said, as Carolina was alluding to on the price side, we're doing all we can in the shorter-cycle businesses, it's a little easier, say in Heathcare, where we've got more like-for-like, we can see those price actions. We're beginning to see some early traction. Their services is a bit mixed but where we have opportunity, say, on spares and within the escalation frameworks, within some of the longer-term service agreements, we're obviously going to get what we can there. You spoke to projects. I mean, that's a little bit more bespoke, but it -- while it's difficult to measure price like-for-like, we are managing the margins with some of the longer-term procurement efforts that Carolina alluded to. Just more broadly on the backlog, and what's important to remember when you look at what is what? 380 billion of backlog, 70% of that's in Aviation. Virtually all of that is in Services. So certainly a competitive space, but between the catalog, pricing dynamics and some of the escalation protection, we think we're we're well-positioned, but we take nothing for granted there outside of Aviation, the backlog is also in services where similar dynamics apply. But again, limited pressure net-net in '21, building headwinds for us next year, we've got time to work, both the cost and the price counter measures. And as Carolina said, I don't think we've got a higher priority operational here in the short term than those two.
Operator:
And our next question is from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone?
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Like to get some more comments if we could on the Aviation Aftermarket visibility, that 40% up year-over-year and shop visits Similar to what your competitors have announced. Just talk about visibility, the wrap on departures, and your capacity. I know there had been some cuts. Do you have the capacity to handle all this? I know Lean is helping and then a related question, what kind of R&D investments are you making today or you're planning for to help the airlines hit their carbon neutral goals by 2050?
Larry Culp:
Again, I would say with respect to the aftermarket, I think you highlighted some of the keys for us. Very pleased with the shop visit activity being up 40% in the third quarter better than we had anticipated. I think we were calling for up 25%. We will see sequential improvement. It's not going to be as pronounced year-to-year here in the fourth quarter. Probably it's going to be up call it 30. In October thus far, we're off to a good start in terms of underlying activity. All of that has been coupled with, I would say robust spare part demand from third-party providers. If that coupling up, if you will volume and value that are going to set us up for a pretty good second half here and going into next year. We're working through supply chain challenges here, bit material, bit labor, as we are everywhere else. I think we're positioned here, at least as best we can see. I'm glad you highlighted the lean improvements, rather than just throwing a lot of bodies and a lot of capital under the bridge, we really are trying to work the process, we also [inaudible 00:47:11] from the team and services understand that very well, which is why we highlighted some of the turnaround improvements that we did in our formal remarks. You go back to, I guess what was technically the second quarter, but middle of June, John Slattery in concert with our partners at Safran announced the CFM RISE program, which really is a multi-generational technology investment program to make sure we're on a path be it with sustainable aviation fuels, be it hybrids, being hydrogen to be in a position to maintain the industry leadership this business has enjoyed for decades. So there's a lot to come. We're going to be spending and we're going to be spending smartly in and around those areas to launch technologies that ultimately transition into product programs as our airframe or an airline customers deem appropriate. So a lot going on short term and long term but again, we really like where Aviation is particularly with departure trends and the outlook here in the near-term.
Operator:
Our next question is from Steve Tusa from JP Morgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, guys. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Steve.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Morning Steve.
Steve Tusa:
You mentioned the sequential margin increase in the Aviation. I think the revenues were a little bit weaker this quarter. For fourth-quarter, I think they're implied guidance. I know it's a wide range and you guys haven't really updated in a while. Gets me to a midpoint of $1 billion for 4Q. You just had a nice sequential increase from 2Q to 3Q. Is that the right number. And then as a follow-up to that for next year with a billion 5 headwind as AD&A normalizes, what mechanically -- what's the math that can overcome that kind of headwind for Aviation to grow free cash?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Okay, so if we start with the Aviation and the margin and you talked about margin going into the fourth-quarter. So what we are seeing, and I think an important add on the third quarter is that we say shift clearly towards services. So in the third quarter we had 20% growth of services while equipment was down. These better makes also tilt toward external [inaudible 00:49:37] to see the drop-through. And Larry talked about higher shop visits of 40% up year-over-year. We also saw the strong third-party sales up around 30. For the fourth quarter, we have this [inaudible 00:49:53] as you know, that we don't expect it to be as high for the fourth quarter. So we could expect to continue from the third quarter into the fourth quarter with the sequential improvement and overall that's how we get to our low double-digit margins for 2021. We haven't specifically said exactly what the profit is in the fourth quarter for Aviation, but with all those pieces you piece it together. For 2022, you asked about Aviation free cash flow. I would say a couple of things. You're right on the AD&A. It is a timing issue, so we'll have a big headwind next year on the AD&A side. But what we do see is we expect to return to fly to continue. So we will expect to see basically utilization being driven, which means more hours flown which means higher billings on our [inaudible 00:50:44] You know the cash comes before the profit, so we do expect to have really good uptick on services and the cash flow. So basically on the CSS side. Then, yes, AD&A will be a headwind, but on top of that, we also have the profit that we will see from more shop visits. So overall, the mix of that gets us to a positive place. I think it's mainly the services, and the CSS, but it is a big positive.
Operator:
And our next question is from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Maybe just sticking with free cash flow for a second and thinking about the 4Q implied guidance. Typically, 4Q is your seasonally strongest quarter. The step-up from 4Q to 3Q seems to be a little bit seasonally weaker than what we've seen in prior years. So I'm just curious if any puts and takes that we need to be aware of as we kind of think about the sequential bridge for free cash flow, 3Q to 4Q Thank you.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Joe, let me let me answer that. So I think it's important to take a step back. And if we look at jumping off point for 2020 for free cash flow for the full-year, the free cash flow, excluding factoring and biopharma, we were on 2.4 billion in 2020. If you take a midpoint of our guide now and you add back the factoring, you get to 5 billion for this year. So just to put in perspective, we're going from last year, 2.4 to midpoint of 5 billion this year. So we're doubling the cash flow for 2021. We're also seeing linearity improvements in 2021, which is part of the reason the fourth quarter not being as unlinear as it has been before. After the range that we have, they're basically two main areas that bring us uncertainty. One is on the supply chain challenges and the other one is the PTC pressure that we then expect to impact progress. Well, that's what's exactly meant for the fourth quarter. Well, we'll have higher sequential profit and we expect to see free cash from the market improving and some of the usual seasonality. But it would still be down year-over-year. The supply chain challenges you'll see some earnings, but also through inventory. It's going to be lot stack and wave that isn't going out. And then for the full-year fourth quarter last year, you remember we had big Renewables progress of a billion so we don't expect that to happen this year. And then I also previously talked about the Aviation settlements and Cares Act as positive one-offs in fourth quarter last year. To take that all together, that's how you get to the fourth quarter, and importantly, how we get to 5 billion of jumping off points or free cash flow this year, which is really important proof point and step to our high-single-digit fee margin journey that Larry talked about a little while ago.
Operator:
And the next question Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
[Inaudible 00:53:53]
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
[Inaudible 00:53:54]
Andrew Obin:
Just a question, longer-term -- long-term care seems to be in better shape, power stabilizing. Once we consolidate Balance Sheet, that's a lot easier and there is a path for delivering. Back when your spoke a lot about strategic optionality, but sort of -- COVID, I think focus shifted elsewhere, but it seems to be coming back. Can you just talk about where we are about -- thinking about strategic optionality and putting in historical context what you guys said about Heathcare, what you guys said about long-term care, renewables, etc. I know it's a broad question, but whatever you can share with us, thank you.
Larry Culp:
Sure. Sure. Andrew, let me let me take a swing at that. I would say that again, we're really pleased with the progress on both the deleveraging and the operational improvements. We still have to close the transaction, worked through the follow-on debt reductions, but to be in a position to have line of sight now on what will be a cumulative approximately $75 billion debt reduction over the last 3 years allows us, I think, to look at the Balance Sheet and begin to think about playing more offense and take advantage of the strategic optionality that we have been looking to build and grow. That goes hand-in-hand with the underlying improvements, some of which I would argue you see in these numbers, others, like what I saw on the shop floor and Lynn a few weeks back, you don't see yet, but which I think gives us confidence that more improvements in terms of top line, bottom line and cash are forthcoming. And all that really does is, I think allow us to both invest in the business more aggressively, organically and inorganically. That's why we were so excited about the BK Medical transaction, admittedly small, but the strategic logic behind it, the value-add operationally, our $3 billion high-performing ultrasound business will generate. And the high single-digit returns we think we will have in time that's what we should be doing more of in concert with what we're going to do organically. All of that really sets us up, I think, Andrew, to be in a position to really realize the full potential of these wonderful businesses in the GE portfolio. There are host of ways that could play out over time. But first things first, we've got some business here with the GECAS and AerCap merger to work through. We've got these operating challenges to navigate through the fourth quarter and going into next year. But I really do think we're increasingly operating from a position of strength. I like where we are, in time we will realize the full value of these businesses.
Operator:
Our next question is from Markus Mittermaier from UBS.
Markus Mittermaier:
Hi. Good morning everyone.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi.
Markus Mittermaier:
Morning. Hi. Maybe a question on Power. Could you update us on the steam Power restructuring progress and any view on the potential impact here on the cost base for that business. And is that anything that changes how you view that business given the French government's push, recently investment push in nuclear and renewable source that really separate in your business on the steam side, between coal and nuclear. Thank you very much.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi, Markus. Let me start by talking to the restructuring then. First of all, Instron, which is now part of the Power Segment and also run by Scott. We have Valerie and her team working through the restructuring there. I would say they are on track, it's a big restructuring. We do expect margins to turn in 2023 and basically have the restructuring to temper down by them. And then the business is going to be 2 third services going forward at a significantly lower overhead cost, which is what you were alluding to. So we see good traction but we're still in the middle of it. So again, it would take time until 2023, but then we'll have a very different business with the high service element and lower overheads.
Larry Culp:
Markus, I think the other part of your question was really with respect to the steam generators for nuclear applications. As you will appreciate, our focus continues to be on running that business as well as we can for our customers. Recently, we did acknowledge that we are in discussions with EDF regarding a potential transaction. If there's an opportunity to create value, we'll certainly pursue it. But if you step back for a moment, I think we are of the view that nuclear overall has an important role to play in the energy transition. We know the French government is strongly of that view. They aren't alone. I was in the UK last week where we had similar conversations, particularly in and around advanced nuclear technology, particularly in the case of the small modular reactors, which we know can provide carbon-free, dependable baseload, and flexible capacity as we move forward here. So we've got a lot of capabilities in and around nuclear, really the whole nuclear life-cycle. So we don't talk a lot about it, but it is part of the Power framework for the energy transition and one we'll continue to manage as best we can going forward.
Operator:
And our next question is from Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.
Joe O'dea:
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Deane Dray:
Morning, Joe.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Morning Joe.
Larry Culp:
Morning, Joe.
Joe O'dea:
Hi. I wanted to ask on PTC and how you're planning for that and what your base case assumptions are, what you're thinking about in terms of important dates on the timeline. You talked about the step-down in installs expected next year, how temporary that is or what you're seeing, how much kind of persistent pressure it can put on the install market.
Larry Culp:
Joe, let me take that. I think with respect to the U.S. market for onshore wind, we do see a step down here going into '22, probably stepping down from say, 14 to 10 gigawatts. It's not yet set in stone because these conversations are active and underway in Washington given all the legislation under review that run up to COP26 and the like. I think what we are incorporating in our commentary here today, Is a more pessimistic perhaps, but updated view relative to the very near-term. So in the absence of those incentives in the short term, we're going to feel pressure both on new unit orders and in repowering. So some of that impacts cash, some of that impacts margins relative to repowering installations this year. The good news is, this is all part of a long-term extension given the administration's commitment to the energy transition, to the role of both onshore and relatedly offshore wind in that transition. So if you take the decade long view, the impetus or the imperative for us is really to manage these businesses better, to generate better margins, operating margins. But in the short term, we've got some additional pressures, just given the reduction in demand that will follow the uncertainty around the tax incentives. And they hit us hard because North American market the U.S market, is clearly the best onshore wind market for us on a global basis.
Operator:
And our next question is from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
Thanks. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Nicole.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
I was hoping to dig into the supply chain challenges a little bit here. And I know it's become a little bit spread across a lot of your businesses, you mentioned that becoming challenged Aviation as well. But Larry, are you seeing any signs of abatement there? We've heard a few companies talk about the view that August and September where the pinnacle of supply chain challenges and things might be easing a little bit, we would love to hear what GE is saying.
Larry Culp:
Nicole, I've talked to some of those CEO s. Some of those CEOs are friends of mine. I'm not sure we're yet it a place where we would say that things are stable. We may have line of sight, we may have improvements in one commodity or in one business, but almost without fail. The next day, a commodity, a supplier, a logistics provider that we thought was good for the next 6 weeks or the next 6 months, offers up a revision to that outlook. So I think I've used a phrase I probably shouldn't, but I'll repeat it and it really is [Inaudible 01:03:23] playing whack-a-mole. By business, by commodity, by geography, it just seems like every day there's new news to battle with. I couldn't be more pleased with the way our team is navigating all of this, both in terms of availability and cost. We've got new procurement leadership in a number of businesses. We're really trying to make sure that we are true to our lean imperative of safety, quality, delivery, and cost in that order. We don't want to have a short-term band aid that costs us long term. But it really is a tactical, muscular endeavor right now that we're working our way through. You've heard others, you've heard some of the key suppliers talk about electronic components are likely to be at least a 2, 3 quarter challenge, maybe longer. That's important for us in certain businesses and certainly in some of our higher-margin businesses. But we're working through it. It's probably more challenging than I've ever seen in my career. But we'll work our way through it. Things will level out in time, and I think that given this was an area where we wanted to strengthen our operational capabilities, while it's more challenging in the short-term, will be better for medium and long term.
Steve Winoker:
Hey, John, we only have time for one more question. Could you please proceed with what's going to be our last question?
Operator:
Yes. And our final question is from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Good morning, guys. Just slipped in.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Larry, can you give a little more color into how you're thinking about Heathcare revenue margin going forward? I know you mentioned that growth could've been 9 points higher. Obviously, very strong orders despite the weaker revenue. So to get those nine points back in '22 and/ or does the backlog you're building give you confidence in the stronger than usual revenue environment in '22?
Larry Culp:
Andy, for sure. And it's not our style to try to build back a better headline here. But that's 9 points of real pressure given the supply chain issues that Nicole was just probing us on. And again Carolina mentioned that the Ford ventilator effort a year ago for the HHS was a significantly tough [inaudible 01:05:48]. But if you look at the 19% orders growth, if you look at what's happening both in the public and the private spheres. Plus what we're doing increasingly, both from a commercial and from a product perspective, we talked about the opportunity to take this business from a low-single-digit grower in the mid-single-digit range to grow margins in the 25 to 70 basis points over time. I've got more conviction about our potential to do that than I did a year ago. Just off a UK trip where I had some quality time with a number of our business leaders over there, our PDx business in particular, lots of good things going on. We've got a CEO transition here in the offing that we're excited about Karen Murphy is doing a heck of a job with that business. Pete Arduini coming in is very much committed to those types of expectations. He's certainly coming because he's excited about the potential that he sees across the GE Healthcare portfolio. So we wish it weren't as Mike you have a camouflaged headline here, given the supply chain issues, we'll work through it and just feel like this is a strong business that will get stronger over time.
Steve Winoker:
Larry, we're out of time, but any final comments?
Larry Culp:
Steve, I know we're over, but let me just -- if I may to take a moment to thank our employees and our partners around the world for what are truly extraordinary efforts here given the pandemic and the recent challenges. My thanks go out to everybody. We're operating from a position of strength today. I also want to thank our investors for their continued support. We certainly appreciate your interest, your investment in our Company, and your time today. Steve and the IR team, as always, stand ready to help and assist in any way possible as you consider GE in your investment processes.
Steve Winoker:
Thank you. Thanks, John.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Brandon and I'll be your conference coordinator today. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Brandon. Welcome to the GE Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp, and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Note that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. With that, I'll hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thanks and good morning, everyone. Overall, we delivered a strong second quarter and first half performance, and we're encouraged by the early signs of the recovery. Looking at the numbers on Slide 2, recall that the second quarter of 2020 was challenging, as we navigated the full negative effects of the pandemic. While we recognize that many are still facing continued challenges with new COVID spikes and variants, we're seeing our businesses return to growth this quarter. Orders were up 30% organically, with growth across all segments, and services were up 50%. Industrial revenue grew in 3 of our 4 segments. We saw strength in Healthcare and in Services overall. At Healthcare and Renewables in total, as well as in Power Services, revenue was back to levels, similar or better to 2019. Notably, Aviation Commercial Services were up substantially as we're beginning to benefit from the market recovery. Our Adjusted Industrial margin expanded a 1000 basis points organically, with year-over-year expansion across all segments and sequential expansion in all segments except Aviation, where we took a non-cash charge largely related to one customer contract.We expect Aviation margins to expand for the rest of '21. Carolina will cover this in more detail later. Adjusted EPS was up significantly with all segments contributing. Industrial free cash flow was up $2 billion ex-discontinued factoring programs, primarily driven by improved earnings and working capital. We're encouraged by our second quarter cash performance, and we're raising our full-year industrial free cash flow outlook to $3.5 billion to $5 billion, while our outlook for organic revenue growth, margin expansion, and adjusted EPS remains unchanged. I'll take a moment here to speak to the dynamics at Aviation. Market fundamentals are improving. There was a sizeable uptick in departures this quarter, with even greater momentum in June and July. Unsurprisingly, departure trends continue to vary by region. North America continues to improve, with Canada now picking up the pace. Europe has accelerated with departures now 40% below '19 levels. China dipped down to 6% below '19 levels due to increased COVID cases and government restrictions, while Asia-Pacific ex-China has been more tepid due to border closures and the spreading COVID variant. Importantly though, about two-thirds of our CFM departures are concentrated in regions with improved trends. We're seeing a stronger recovery in narrow-body fleets versus wide-bodies, and freight continues to outperform passenger traffic. While green time utilization continues to impact us, we expect this to lessen in the second half. Shop visit volume and scope improved slightly sequentially. We anticipate continued sequential volume growth and scope expansion through the year. Looking ahead, we're still expecting '21 departures to be up about 20% year-over-year and down 30% versus 2019, with customer behavior driving departure, and shop visit trends. I'm confident in our path to recovery in Aviation. We're using Lean to improve our operations and our cost structure. And no business is better positioned than GE Aviation to support our customers through the upcycle, with the largest and youngest engine platform with more than 37,000 commercial engines. And more than 60% of our fleet not yet having a second shop visit, our platform will generate value for decades to come. Overall, we're building momentum across GE, evidenced by the significant margin expansion and positive free cash flow this quarter. And importantly, we continue to believe the improvements underway are built on stronger fundamentals, and thus are sustainable. Turning to Slide 3, we're making tremendous progress in our journey to become a more focused, simpler, stronger, high-tech industrial. This quarter, the GECAS and AerCap combination achieved some key milestones. AerCap shareholders approved the transaction. The U.S. Department of Justice concluded its review, and yesterday, the European Commission cleared the transaction. We expect to close by year-end. Broadly speaking, this combination serves as a significant catalyst enabling us to focus more time, talent, and capital on our four core industrial franchises
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks, Larry. Our quarterly performance reflects continued progress in our transformation. During a recent operating review, we're gaining traction with increased granularity across our financials. Our [financials] (ph) are providing more insightful, faster analysis, which is driving better outcomes. Looking forward, we're focused on building even deeper visibility and accountability, partnering cross-functionally, to unlock margin expansion and improving working capital management to generate more cash flow. Now, looking at Slide 4. I'll cover our highlights on an organic basis. In the quarter, we returned to growth on the topline. Healthcare and Services overall were strong. In particular, Services continued to keep us close to our customers and represent more than half of our orders and revenue. Total orders were up 7% sequentially, and Aviation and Power were up more than 40% year-over-year. Services orders were up 50%, where Renewables and Aviation doubled, and Gas Power and Healthcare grew double-digits. Revenue was up across Aviation, Healthcare, and Renewables. Power was flat as expected. We continued to reduce turnkey scope in Gas Power and exit new unit coal at Steam. We're also seeing our mix shift towards higher margin services, with total services revenue growing 15%. Notably, Aviation Commercial Services grew 50%, reflecting a recovering market, but we're still well below '19 levels. Healthcare in total, and Gas Power Services remain bright spots with growth above 2019. Next, adjusted Industrial margins improved sequentially in all segments except Aviation, where margins declined. I'll speak to this shortly. Year-over-year, margins expanded 1,000 basis points, with all segments expanding. About half of this improvement was driven by non-repeat of COVID charges, and the other half was driven by our Lean efforts, cost productivity, and mix shift to Services. Regarding inflation, we're seeing pressure. However, it's a mixed story by business. Our shorter cycle businesses feel the impact earliest, while our longer cycle businesses are more protected, given extended purchasing and production cycles. Our services business fall in between. Across the board, we're driving cost countermeasures and utilizing price increases and escalation features in our contracts to help mitigate this pressure. In our longer-cycle project businesses, we manage cost performance versus our original as-sold margins. We utilized Lean to reduce cost and cycle time to execute delivery. In the second quarter, our countermeasures actually drove a slight net deflation impact on margins. Looking forward to the second half of '21 and into '22, although inflation pressure is likely to increase, particularly in Aviation and Renewables, we expect the net inflation impact to be limited. Finally, Adjusted EPS was up $0.19 year-over-year. About 3/4 of this improvement came from our industrial segments. As we worked from continuing to Adjusted EPS, we need to exclude the positive Baker mark, the negative impact of significant higher cost-restructuring programs, non-operating expenses primarily pension, and debt tender costs. Worth noting for EPS, our reverse stock split takes effect as of market open 08/02. This will better align GE's number of shares outstanding with companies of our size. Overall, we're encouraged by our broader earnings performance, especially the underlying margin improvement. And we're well-positioned to achieve our '21 outlook for margin expansion and EPS. Moving to cash. In the second quarter, industrial free cash flow was positive 388 million, up 2.5 billion year-over-year on a reported basis, or up 2 billion excluding discontinued factoring programs in both years. The majority of this improvement was driven by cash earnings, with all segments growing earnings. Underpinning our solid quarterly performance versus our earlier expectations, was higher Aviation orders, and in turn, higher progress collections and lower AD&A, as well as strength at Healthcare and Power. We've made good progress exiting the majority of our factoring programs in the second quarter. This was a big step forward to becoming more operational and getting back to basics on billings and collections. For context, currently, about half of our billings occur in the final month of the quarter, driven in part by the timing of deliveries, far too backend-loaded and inconsistent with the Lean principles of flow and level loading. Our turns across commercial, operations and finance are working to deliver earlier to our customers. And in turn, bill and collect cash earlier in the quarter. Over time this will help us generate more linear cash flow. The discontinuation of factoring was a 2.7 billion impact, which was adjusted out of free cash flow. For the remainder of 21, the impact will be roughly a billion dollars part, stick between the third and the fourth quarters. Going deeper on working capital, this was a source of cash at 260 million this quarter. Despite increased volume, we saw significant year-over-year improvement, largely due to operational enhancements. Looking at the flows in the quarter, I'll speak to a couple. Receivables were a source of cash, driven by DSO improvement across all segments. Take our Imaging and Life Care Solution business in the U.S. and Canada, for example. Our turns are using Lean and automation to better manage contract deliverables, build customers more accurately and faster, and thereby generate cash quicker. These efforts already improved DSO by 7 days. Inventory with the use of cash largely driven by Onshore Wind inventory build for the second -half delivery as well as fulfillment and execution challenges. Overall, inventory turns improved from 2.4 to 2.6 sequentially with higher volume, but there's much more to do. We continue to manage our capital investments with focus on profitable growth. When the second quarter CapEx spend was down sequentially, our investments in new product programs increased. Overall, in the first half, on a reported basis, cash flow was negative 457 million, a 3.8 billion improvement year-over-year. Off the rebaselining for discontinued factoring programs and the BioPharma side, we saw a 3.2 billion improvement. While there is more to do, our near-term working capital improvements are taking hold even as we grow. Together with higher earnings, this is beginning to drive more sustainable and linear free cash flow. And based on our 2Q performance, we're now confident that we can deliver free cash flow in the range of 3.5 to 5 billion for the year, versus our prior outlook of 2.5 to 4.5. Turning to liquidity and leverage on Slide 6. We ended the quarter with 22 billion of cash and recently refinanced our backup credit facility. Due to our improved financial position and cash linearity with lower peak quarterly net, we reduced the facility size from 15 to 10 billion and extended the maturity date to 2026, at attractive pricing. We also continued to take meaningful actions on our deleveraging plan, completing a 7 billion debt tender. This brings our gross debt, which currently includes pension to a reduction of 53 billion since the end of 2018. Additionally, we continue to de-risk the pension. In the UK, as of January 2022, we implement the proposed pension phase. As mentioned previously, we don't expect any further funding requirements for the GE Pension Plan, at least through the end of the decade. Stepping back, we have a clear path to achieving a less than 2.5 times net debt to EBITDA over the next few years. Moving to our business results which I'll speak to on an organic basis. First, on Aviation. As Larry shared, we're starting to see improving fundamentals associated with the commercial market recovery across services and OE production. The market's sequential improvement met our expectations with GE CFM departures currently down about 27% versus '19. While departure trends continue to vary by region, we still expect the global recovery to accelarate in the second half. Orders were up year-over-year, both Commercial Engines and Services were up substantially year-over-year. Key commercial wins this quarter include IndiGo, Southwest, and United, driving momentum. In fact, since the beginning of '20 new wins have now outpaced canceled orders. Military orders were down largely due to timing of new orders and a tough comp versus last year when you will recall, we received a large military advance. Revenue was up 10%. Commercial Services was up 50% with operational improvement. Shop visit volume trended better than our expectations, up over 30%, and overall scope was up slightly, sequentially. Broadly, we're seeing higher concentration of narrow-body visits, which typically have lower revenue. Our spare part rate was up double-digits year-over-year and sequentially. This was partially offset by unfavorable CSA contract margin reviews or CMRs, where revenue is adjusted to reflect latest margins based on cost incurred to date. Military continues to be impacted by internal and external supply chain issues, with output expectations falling short this quarter. We're seeing some improvement as we used visual management and standard work and also other tools to solve problems in real-time, and we are working to fully resolve these issues. We're now targeting mid single-digit revenue growth for the year. But our high single-digit target remains in place through '25. Segment margin expanded significantly year-over-year, yet down sequentially. Margin was impacted by the non-cash contract margin review charges of, approximately, 400 million. About two-thirds of this was related to 1 contract in a loss position. In this contract, continued COVID re-utilization, contract-specific dynamics, and operating behavior increased our estimated shop visit costs. When rare across our service portfolio, the loss contract designation resulted in the accelerated recognition of all future forecasted losses into 2Q. Excluding this, Aviation margins would have been low double-digits. Quarterly CMRs are part of our normal process and we'll continue in the second half. For Q2 -- for Q3, we expect margins to expand sequentially. Our team continues to align fixed cost and our organizational profile to market realities. We're maintaining our low double-digit margin guide for '21 supported by second half recovery. However, based on the CMR and military dynamics, we now expect full-year revenue growth to be about flat versus '20. These are temporary issues and we remain encouraged by the underlying fundamentals of our business. Moving to Healthcare, market fundamentals are improving and the team delivered another impressive quarter. Starting with the market, global procedures volume grew mid single-digits for the fourth consecutive quarter. Europe, China, and Japan were solid markets due to government spending, a sign of increasing expectations for better quality of care and patient outcomes. Private markets also grew in the U.S. across key customers as recovery momentum continues. Demand remains robust amid that backdrop. Orders were up double-digits year-over-year and versus second quarter, '19, and up 20%, excluding the Ford ventilator partnership last year. Healthcare system orders were up 7% with double-digit growth in Imaging and Ultrasound. This offsets a decline in Life Care Solutions, lapping higher demand for COVID-19 -related equipment. However, LCS was up double-digits versus second quarter '19. PDx orders were up almost 50% year-over-year following a depressed second quarter '20, and also up versus second quarter '19. Revenue was also up double-digits with the HCF up 6%, and PDx up almost 50%. All Asia regions delivered double digit growth, with China up high-teens. The teams worked across the supply chain to help mitigate industry-wide supply shortages related to electronics and resins, which impacted growth this quarter. Segment margin expanded 460 Basis points year-over-year and significantly versus second quarter 19, ex-BioPharma. Margin continues to be driven by profitable growth, cost productivity throuh Lean, and prior periods restructuring. At the same time, we're accelerating our growth investments, particularly in digital and AI enabled applications with increased spend planned for the second half. And we'll continue to evaluate inorganic investments to compliment this, such as Zionexa. Based on our first-half we now expect organic margins to expand more than a 100 basis points for the year. This will be influenced by how quickly we can ramp certain growth investments. However, our medium term expectations remain 25-75 basis points expansion. Our investment ramp will support continued innovation and help us drive higher revenue growth over time. Turning to Renewables. We're continuing to lead the energy transition, growing new-generation, lowering the cost of electricity, and modernizing the grid. With a focus on new product platforms and technologies that enables profitable growth and cash generation over time. Looking at the market, in Onshore Wind, we still expect the U.S. market to decline in the near term before stabilizing. We're watching the potential U.S. production tax credit extension closely. A blanket long-term extension likely result in near-term uncertainty because it pushes out investment -- Investment decisions for what could be years. This may impact our second half orders profile and positive free cash flow outlook for the year. In Offshore Wind, global momentum should continue through the decade. The recent U.S. Federal approval of the Vineyard Wind Project, supported by our Haliade-X, represents meaningful progress for the U.S. market. And as the global energy transition accelerates and government stimulus increases, the grid will need to be upgraded and more actively managed. Orders grew mid-single-digits, where Onshore Services more than doubled as repower orders increased, which will convert to second half deliveries. This was partially offset by lower Onshore Equipment orders due to PTC dynamics. While both Onshore and Offshore Equipment orders are lumpy, we expect them to increase significantly in the second half versus first half. Revenue was up 9% driven by higher equipment revenue, offset by lower services, and reported equipment was up 12% on a two-year view versus '19. In Onshore, equipment was up year-over-year on higher international unit deliveries, while services were down on fewer repower upgrades, so up sequentially. And Services ECS repower grew double-digits again. Segment margin, while still negative, improved more than 500 basis points as we drive towards segment profitability over time. Onshore was profitable in the quarter and year-to-date. This was driven by continued cost-out and volume leverage that more than offset mix and other headwinds such as lower margin on new products, which typically improves our product lifecycle. In Grid, cost productivity was offset by elevated restructuring. Looking ahead, we're focused on our operational priorities, including cost reductions, to help offset increased medium-term headwinds from the market inflation and new technology and platform transitions. Moving to Power. The team performed very well with operational improvements across the business, particularly at Gas Power. Looking at the market, global gas generation grew low single-digits, while GE gas turbine utilization continued to be resilient, with megawatt hours growing high single-digits. Encouragingly, outage starts were up 50% year-over-year and up mid-single-digits versus 2Q '19. For the year, we expect the gas market to remain stable, with gas generation growing low-single-digits. The dispatch of our fleet is well-positioned with upgrade admissions and the growing hedging backlog. Outside of gas, markets remain mixed. Power orders were up significantly, driven by gas power equipment. This quarter, we booked 12 heavy-duty gas turbines and 35 aeroderivative orders, primarily LMs, that will complement variable renewable power by providing distributed [Inaudible] power to help deliver grid stability. Orders were also up in Gas Power Services, Lean, Power Conversion and Nuclear. Power revenue was flat, where Gas Power declined, while Power Conversion grew. Gas Power was down slightly, largely driven by equipment where, similar to last quarter, we had lower turn to scope projects. We also shipped 6 fewer heavy-duty gas turbines. Gas Power Services was up significantly across both services and transaction portfolios, primarily due to higher outages, and Services' growth is trending better than our initial outlook. Power conversion was up with its highest quarterly sales level since third quarter '18. And where Steam was down slightly, Services returned to pre-COVID level. Total power margins expanded roughly 900 basis points and improved sequentially. Gas Power has stabilized through rightsizing the cost structure, improving underwriting, and operating better with Lean. Margins were positive, largely driven by service d equipment mix and lower costs. Now, Q3 is typically our toughest service quarter, with lower activity compared to the Spring and the Fall outages season, which are in the second and the fourth quarter respectively. But we're confident in our high single-digit margin outlook for the year. Steam was negatively impacted by COVID in India, which drove work stoppages and delayed project execution. But we're on track with the planned exit of new build coal. Just over half of the planned 600 to 700 million cash actions from restructuring, legal, and project close-outs were realized in the first half. Once the exit is completed, Steam will be 2/3 services. Overall, Power is on track to deliver the outlook targets and high single-digit operating margins over time. Moving to GE Capital on Slide 8. Continuing adjusted earnings were positive 28 million, a significant improvement year-over-year. This was primarily driven by lower marks in impairments, as well as higher gains at EFS, better performance at Insurance, and the discontinuation of preferred dividend payments, which are now a GE industrial obligation. At Insurance, we saw positive investment results and lower claims continue. However, favorable claims trends due to COVID are slowing in certain parts of the portfolio. And EFS enabled 1.1 billion of orders supporting customers at Renewables and Gas, including third-party financing. Based on our first half, we expect to reach the better end of our earnings outlook of negative 700 to negative 500 million. Within discontinued operations, capital reported a loss of approximately 600 million, primarily due to the recent declines of AerCap stock price, which is updated quarterly. Moving to Corporate. Costs are up slightly, given the variable nature of [Indiscernable] and other, and the elimination activities. Importantly, functional costs and operations were better. In the first half, total costs were down more than 20%, as we improved functions and operations, and digital operations. Moving forward, our focus on decentralization and leaner processes continues, which will drive cost and cash improvement. For the year, we're on track for the 1.2 to 1.3 billion of cost. In all, we delivered a strong quarter. I'm encouraged by the work underway at Aviation, the ongoing strength in Healthcare, and our progress at Renewables and Power. Now, Larry, back to you.
Larry Culp:
Carolina, thanks. We turn to Slide 9. I'm incredibly proud of the GE team's performance in the second quarter. As you've seen, orders and revenue returned to growth, operating margin expanded across all segments, and we generated positive free cash flow. Importantly, Aviation is showing the early signs of a recovery, and we're clearly building momentum across our businesses. Combined, this gives us the conviction to raise our free cash flow outlook to $3.5 to $5 billion for the full year. I hope you see what I see, a transformation that is accelerating. GE is becoming a more focused, simpler, stronger, high-tech industrial. And our efforts and impact extend beyond GE. We've always felt a heightened sense of responsibility when it comes to creating a more sustainable future. We recently released our annual sustainability report this month, which shares how we're tackling the world's biggest challenges through innovative solutions, developing the future of flight, advancing precision health, and leading the energy transition. For example, the CFM RISE Program that we've announced with Safran demonstrates our shared vision for the future of flight as we target reducing fuel consumption and carbon emissions by more than 20% versus today's most efficient engines. As we rise to the challenge of building a world that works, serving customers in vital global markets, we'll stay focused on profitable growth and cash generation, which I'm confident will lead to high single-digit free cash flow margins over the next few years. Steve, with that, let's go to questions.
Steve Winoker:
Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analyst again and ask 1 question so we can get to as many people as possible. Brandon, can you please open the line?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator instructions]. And from Citigroup, we have Andy Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Good morning, guys.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Andy.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning, Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Your industrial free cash flow result was good in the quarter and that looks like it's helping you to be able to raise your industrial free cash flow guidance. Could you give us more color where cash has been trending better than your expectations? It looks like Aviation and Healthcare seem ahead. And then could you also talk about the differences between your performance in cash flow and earnings, as you obviously didn't raise your EPS forecast for the year despite the significant raise in cash guidance?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Andy, that would be my pleasure. Let me start with the second quarter, and what happened in the second quarter. When we were talking to you mid-quarter, we were expecting around negative 400 million in free cash flow for the quarter. While that was the target we thought was achievable. We clearly came in much better and we were able to do much better. Where did that come from? Well, it's a combination, both Power and Healthcare continued to be strong both on profit and on cash. In Aviation, we saw cash come in much better. And that was really two-fold. One part was the new orders with progress payments that came and on the other hand, we had less AD&A because our customers didn't ship as many aircraft as expected and therefore, we paid out less AD&A. So with that bit, you can say that basically we are rolling that bit into our updated free cash flow guide, right, so we're raising it from 2.5 to 4.5 to 3.5 to 5, and if you do the midpoint there, you basically see that cash roll through. About half of that improvement comes from earnings, and half comes from working capital and other offsets. And if we then compare with what happened on earnings. Clearly on earnings, we also saw the improved or the strengthening from Power and Healthcare, and we had underlying Aviation as expected. What we also had in the quarter, was a small charge of 400 and that's a non-cash charge. If you take our guide for EPS, which is $0.15 to $0.25, we are now obviously rolling in the results of the second quarter, including that non-cash charge into that number. That said, we do expect to be in the better part of that range for the full year, thanks to the good momentum that we are seeing in the businesses, both in Aviation recovery and the other businesses strengthening their operational performance.
Operator:
From Goldman Sachs, we have Joe Ritchie. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie:
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Joe.
Steve Winoker:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
This is a 2-part question for me because there's a lot of focus on Aviation margin this quarter. I really want to ask about the contract margins and also green time utilization. On the contract margin reviews, I know that you guys do these quarterly, but I remember last year when you were doing your impairment tested, you really made a concerted effort to look at the 20% of your portfolio that was high-risk. And so I'm curious. As you think about the expectations for low double-digit Aviation margins for the rest of the year, I'm just wondering what confidence do you have that you won't take another charge on the contract margin reviews? And then, any other color that you can provide us on green time utilization impact for the second half and into 2022?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Let me start with the [CMR](ph) and the margins. And I think stepping back, Aviation Service margins are very attractive. And what we had in this quarter was a loss contract, and that's very rare. We have about 200 CSA contracts in our portfolio and there are only a couple of them are loss making and we're not expecting that impact to repeat. The length of the contract is around 15 to 20 years. And the processes we have are rigorous and the controls are working. And it's really cross-functional efforts where because the R&D operations and commercial are working together to update the estimates, we have [estimates] (ph) from last year, and then making a calculation for what the margin should be. In this quarter, with this 1 contract, since that turned into a loss-making contract, what technically happens then is that you don't only update history to that new margin, you also pull forward all the expected or possible losses that you would have going forward on that contract into the second quarter. And that's why it had such a big impact in the quarter with almost 300 from that. What I would say though is that, more importantly is how we're working to improve how we operationally do our services. We're working to reducing turnaround times, we're working to get the engines back to our customers faster, and lowering the cost of our overhaul. If you think about that, that brings us to lower costs, lower cash, and happier customers. That's operationally what's really important for us. And then your question was, what about this going forward? When we look into the second half, as we've said, we do expect departures to improve. And if you look at the Aviation margin in the second quarter, excluding the [CMR] (ph) impact, it would have been 11% plus, so double-digits, or low double-digits. And that's why we're holding the low double-digit margin. And I would say, when we look at the second half, what will impact the second half, we talked about shop visit volume, the mix, the scope and we do expect that the shop visit trend will move favorably for us. And then we'll continue to have the quarterly CMR process, as is.
Steve Winoker:
And Joe just to add with Carolina said, with respect to green time and that clearly is one of the variable, it's not the only one that sits between the departure trends and what we see with respect to shop visit activity. So I think our view is that we will continue to see strong year-over-year shop visit numbers. I think we'll see a gradual continuation of the improvements sequentially as well, that suggests a number of these impediments why green time fade with time, but they don't disappear, I think, as we work through the second half. So sequentially, we think we're going to see a continued gradual improvement. We think we will, as Carolina just said, see some slight improvement with respect to scope. All good, we're obviously watching some other variables here like the Delta variant. But at this point, I think we're optimistic about the second half performance in Aviation Services.
Operator:
From Bank of America, we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Hi guys. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on Aviation. Can we just talk about shop services versus spares services up 50%, spares up 15%? Can we just talk about the used serviceable parts dynamic perhaps driving the gap? And more importantly, how do you expect this to develop over the next 18 months? How should we think about the shape of the aftermarket recovery incorporating this used serviceable parts phenomena? Thank you.
Larry Culp:
Keep in mind, when we talk about -- we use the word spares in a couple of different context. But primarily, spare engines are really a function of fleet planning. And given where folks are at this point both in terms of activity and cash conservation, I think in part that's why you see the spares of recovery, perhaps being a bit more muted than the strong bounce back we're seeing in shop visits. And then we talked about green time earlier, I'd say USM is another one of those variables that sits between a direct 1-for-1 transfer from departures to our activity. That said, I think that we haven't seen much by way of USM to-date, I think as we play forward through the second half of this year and into next year, I think we're anticipating that that will be a growing, but still a modest headwind for us, so we may be trade out a little less green time for a little bit more USM. But keep in mind as well, USM doesn't happen to GE Aviation. We're an active consumer, user of USM as well. So it will help us in some respects lower our costs with respect to the delivered services we provide our airline customers. So a number of dynamics there but certainly one that we have an eye on as well as we think about the back half, but maybe more importantly, '22.
Operator:
From JP Morgan, we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Steve.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Thanks for all the detail as usual. Just a question on the receivable side, and note for on the unconsolidated receivables activity. For the first half, I think it's been about 5 billion. It's kind of consistent with what you did in the first quarter. Is that number -- it's been running kind of 10 billion to 12 billion I think over the years, is that number going to be consistently in that range? And then secondly, just on this charge, can you just give us some color as to like what type of engine? Is it narrow bodies, and should we expect the same at Safran, if that's the case?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Okay, Steve. So maybe I'll start with the receivable question there. I think it's important when we look at receivables to put that in context with our volume, and obviously looking at it excluding factoring so that we can see what traction are we really getting and what is our DSO because that's the best way of measuring how we're improving or not on our underlying performance on working capital management. And when it comes to receivables and DSO, we have actually improved significantly compared to a year ago. I would say, of all the working capital metrics, is that's the one that is moving -- that's moved the furthest. Of course, you have seasonality with the volumes and the different businesses, but that's how I would look at it to look at traction, and we are very happy to see that that positive trend has developed over last year with all the work we put into it. And I do believe that now with factoring soon, all out of the game, that will help us drive billings and collections earlier in the quarters and therefore also improve overall the DSO. So good improvement there, but probably even more opportunity going forward on that topic. And the other question you had was on the charge.
Steve Winoker:
Steve, on the CMRs, it was a narrow-body oriented contract that we trued up in the quarter. With respect to the second part of that question regarding Safran, we'll leave their reports to them. I think they'll report later in the week.
Operator:
From Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning. Just wanted to, perhaps, switch the focus to Renewables for a second. I understand that there was a lot of headwinds already from legacy projects and so forth, in aspects such as grid and hydro. But also on the wind side, it seems there is more cost pressure and maybe some project revaluations going on as well at some of your peers. I just wondering if you could give us an update on how comfortable you are with that trajectory of profitability expansion at Renewables and how much more concerned you are about cost headwinds in that business this year and into next?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning. Yes. When we talk about Renewables, I will just start by saying that we're proud with the improved margin. We improved 520 bps year-over-year in Renewables. But when looking at Renewables, you really need to look at the different pieces, a bit like you did. Starting with Onshore Wind, this is the second quarter where we are positive for full Onshore Wind, and that's a significant improvement compared to last year. And we expect to be positive already in 2021 for the full year. And in the second half, we will expect that the services come back even more, including more repower, and we will continue our journey to take more cost out. Offshore Wind, that's more of the investment for the future. I would say you'll see more of that in our numbers beginning 2022. Grid. In grid, we're continuing the turnaround, and we saw good momentum in that. We see better cost-out, we saw better project execution. We are being tougher and having deal selectivity and the restructuring is progressing as planned here. If you take all of that together, you get to that 520 bps improvement year-over-year but it also gives us comfort that we will be positive in 2022, just building on that momentum of operational improvement. We're cautious of inflation and we're watching the PTC dynamics and how that will impact us. But we do see good tailwinds from growth, increased services and digital, as well as our cost reduction.
Operator:
From Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
I've got a question on progress collections. But I do want to just tap on your comment on the factoring, Carolina. And just to confirm, it's not the sales that's the important thing here, it's the amounts outstanding, it's the balance outstanding. I think the 10-Q says that's down from 6.6 billion on Jan 1 to 3 billion at the end of June. Just a thumbs up, that's the bill metric we should be focused on here. And then on the progress that's been $1.3 billion headwinds in the first half of the year. Just wondering how you see that developing in the second half of the year, recognizing that there is some volatility with Renewables. What's in your plan for the second half on progress?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes. Nigel, on the receivable and on the factoring, you're right, that's exactly how to look at it. We started the year with almost 7 billion in factor receivables. We took 800 of that out in the first quarter. You saw us take another 2.7 out now, and we have about a billion to go until year end, and then we'll end the year with around 2 billion, which is what we've talked about. So that's how you get to those numbers, so you're absolutely correct. When it comes to progress, so if you look at the Quarter this year, you have to compare to -- well, progress last year because if we got to look at the delta ahead, progress last year was including the big military progress payments that we got, which obviously didn't repeat now in the quarter. This quarter, we had a lot of deliverables in Renewables, so basically, taking down progress and that's really why it was negative compared to the deliverables. For the rest of the year, well, that will depend a bit on the dynamics of the PTC because we've talked about that the biggest variable for our guide, the cash guide, the 3.5-5, one of the big parts there is the PTC dynamic and if that will change our customer behavior so that they will push out orders that we were expecting to be placed before year end to next year. And the other one on progress will obviously be also depending on Aviation and how that plays out over the second half of the year.
Operator:
From Vertical Research, we have Jeff Sprague. Please go ahead.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Jeff.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Good morning. another one, just on cash flow and factoring here, just make sure we have all this squared away. Just on the unconsolidated receivables facilities. Can you just give us a sense of what kind of volume you will run through that this year? And just kind of on an all-in basis, is that facility isolated to itself actually a source or use of cash flow in 2021 versus 2020? And also, just why continue with that particular facility if factoring is driving behavior you don't like under the factor and forget s behavior, what is it about maintaining this particular facility? Why does it make sense and there's a particular business that you're running through this facility? Thank you.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi, Jeff. On factoring, I would say that the important part is taking it down to a reasonable level. What we are talking about is ending this year with our revenues to have about 2 billion of factoring, and that's basically long - term securitization. And that is part of normal doing business, and that's similar to what other peers are doing. I would say, that is an effective part of financing and reducing risks and using it for the right reasons, while all the rest we're taking out to make sure that we focus on the core, which is really the billing and pushing billings up earlier into the quarter. If you're not going to get that money automatically by the end of the quarter, you are going to be much more motivated to start billing and collecting earlier in the quarter.
Operator:
From RBC Capital, we have Deane Dray, please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Morning Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey, since it's such a big sector-wide headwind, I wanted to ask about the supply chain pressures and I think you called it out twice or two areas, Military Aviation and in Healthcare and Healthcare resins and electronics. So that's pretty much what we're expecting, but could you size for us, are they missed revenues or would they be deferred revenues? And for Carolina, the increase in inventory, is that for buffer stock or also to anticipated increase demand? And what's the mix there? Thanks.
Larry Culp:
Deane, I think if you look at what we have been wrestling with resin semiconductors like so many and other commodities on a spot basis, I think the vast majority of the effects are basically in our backlog today, now past due to customers. So I don't think we are going to try to frame that size-wise, but it did have, I would say, modest impact on our revenues and our cash this quarter. And we really want to make sure that we're doing all we can, both with the vendor base and frankly, with our own processes to clear that. We don't like the foregone revenue, more importantly, we're late with the customer in a number of instances. I think as we look at this instance we might have lost, I'm not sure we can really pinpoint particular orders that went elsewhere because our lead times have been pushed, again, because I don't think this is an isolated GE dynamic. But we're working hard to make sure that that doesn't happen to the extent we can avoid it in the second half. it's a day-to-day battle. It's tactical, far more than it is strategic on balance. But the teams are hard at it as you can imagine, on a daily basis.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yeah. And on your Inventory question, I would take a couple of things. Within Inventory, one part is volume build for Renewable and delivering expected to be in the second half. right but we also have, I would say, a bit too much inventory still because of the fulfillment delays that we have since. We talked about it in Aviation but there's also some stretch in Healthcare. Overall, we are improving the turns in inventory as well But it is getting tougher with challenges on the supply chain side. So more work to do even in this environment.
Operator:
And from UBS, we have Markus Mittermaier. Please go ahead.
Markus Mittermaier:
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Markus.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning, Markus.
Markus Mittermaier:
Good morning. Just a quick one on Power, if I may. Power Services, you mentioned that is now again above 20 19 levels. How should we think about that? Is that a catch up on outages from last year, or is it already reflecting the strong installs that we had in 2017 to 2019, those coming off warranty. And then finally, Carolina, you mentioned that once the Steam restructuring is done that revenue stream will be two-thirds services. Any indication of what we should expect there in terms of margin? Thank you.
Larry Culp:
Markus, I think you've got a pretty good handle on what we're seeing in Gas Services, right? We've got two quarters here in a row now that have been positive, clearly the comps a year ago that we're working against are fairly easy. But if you go back to '19, we're up against 19 levels where a number of the reasons that you highlighted. We do know the second half, given the way COVID played out last year, will present some tougher comps but I think we're encouraged by both what we saw with CSAs and the transactional activity. As we look to the second half, I think in all likelihood going to do better than that low-single-digit revenue guide that we talked about for services. Now that will be more a first-half result than it will be the second half, but we do see, I think, higher outages with the contractual business. I think the teams on the transactional side are doing a better job, day in, day out. We had higher backlog coming into the year. I liked the execution improvements that we're seeing largely by way of Lean. And in turn, I think as we put more emphasis on the top, you're also seeing that flow through to the bottom. which is part of the reason we're seeing the strong margin improvements in Gas and in Power broadly, not only year-over-year, but again, with respect to the comparison versus 2019, where for the segment, I think the margins are up now over 600 basis points versus since the second quarter 2019. We know that this is never going to be a high growth business for us, but certainly it's a business we can run better and can be a stable business for us and I think you see that shaping up here in '21. Carolina?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes, and on steam restructuring. I will start by saying that Valerie and her team are doing a really good job in this big transformation of steam. And on the other side, that's why we mentioned it, this will be mainly a services business. So obviously that's a good place to be in. What the margins will be? Well, I would just say that service margins are always expected to be strong and we expect them to be strong. Probably slightly lower than Gas, but we see where that ends.
Operator:
Thank you. And we've reached the end of our time today. We'll now turn it back to Steve Winoker for closing remarks.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, everybody. Appreciate your time. I know you have a very busy Earnings day. My team and I stand ready to help. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is John, and I’ll be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, John. Good morning, all, and apologies for the delay due to technical reasons. We had to switch to a backup line. It was choppy for a lot of investors, and we wanted to make sure everyone could hear. I am joined today for our first quarter 2021 earnings call by our Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Before we start, I’d like to remind you that the press release and presentation are available on our website. Note that some of the statements we’re making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. With that, I’ll hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thanks, and good morning, all. Despite continued challenges in aviation and a still difficult comparison to last year, the first quarter marked a solid start to 2021. I’m confident, this sets us up well to deliver on our ‘21 commitments, and profitable growth for the long term. Looking at the first quarter numbers on slide 2. Orders were down 8% organically, primarily driven by Aviation Services and Power Equipment. It was partially offset by continued strength in Healthcare and Renewables as well as growth in Power Services. We’re seeing better performance in our shorter-cycle service businesses. Ex-Aviation, service orders were up 6% organically in the quarter. Our backlog stands at $833 billion and remains a strength with approximately 80% geared towards services, where we have higher margins. Industrial revenue was down 10% organically. Services continued to be a main focus as they were down 14%. While services may fluctuate quarter-to-quarter, especially as we’ve seen during the pandemic, we still expect growth in services this year. Ex-Aviation, Industrial revenue was up 1% organically. Adjusted Industrial margin was 5.1%, up 110 basis points organically. Notably, we saw organic expansion year-over-year, with three of our four businesses improving as our cost actions 2020 continue to take hold. Adjusted EPS was $0.03, with the majority of businesses improving, offsetting Aviation. Carolina will provide more color shortly. Industrial free cash flow was a negative $845 million. Encouragingly, this was up $1.7 billion ex-BioPharma, driven by better earnings and working capital. In all, we’re seeing continued progress, especially on margins and cash flow, and we believe these improvements are sustainable. As we look to the second quarter, we expect Industrial free cash flow growth of similar magnitude to what we saw this quarter. And despite ongoing volatility, as the world fights through the pandemic, the guidance we provided a month ago remains unchanged. Turning to slide three. There’s a lot we’re doing day in and day out to build momentum across GE. During the last month, we agreed to combine GECAS with AerCap, marking a significant catalyst in our journey to focus GE on its core four industrial businesses
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks, Larry. As you mentioned, our decentralization effort continues. And our finance team is playing a critical role. We’re developing and supporting a more granular operating view of our nearly 30 P&Ls and we’re building lean skills to ensure the processes we’re setting up are truly lean and automated. We’re also deepening our focus on cash and strengthening our operational muscles. We’re especially seeing this with billings and collections. And we’re really driving services growth, a key component to unlocking improved profitability. For example, as we execute contracts, we’re more focused on cost productivity and standard work. I’m confident this improved discipline will translate into improved results. Turning to slide 4. Before we dive into the results, two items. First, with the announcement of AerCap and GECAS combination, GECAS has moved to discontinued operations. As a result, we booked a day one loss on sale on our financials have been recast to reflect this transfer, with depreciations ceasing on the portfolio. Going forward, any changes to earnings associated with GECAS in discops will primarily be driven by the AerCap stock price. Second, we’re planning to transition our quarterly backlog disclosures to our remaining performance obligation basis, or RPO, starting in the second quarter. This change will simplify and streamline our reporting, further aligning our key metrics to those commonly used across our sectors and reducing unnecessary extra work. Now, let me provide some color on the quarter on an organic basis. Looking at the top line. Recall that our businesses only partially felt the impact of the pandemic in the first quarter of ‘20. Aviation continues to be challenged, managing through market volatility, which has weighed on our overall performance. Industrial revenue was down 10% this quarter, largely driven by services. However, ex-Aviation revenue was up 1%. We’re focusing on improved services growth across the portfolio. Healthcare equipment and services continue to be a strength. We saw increased demand as global procedure volumes recovered to pre-pandemic levels. While Power declined and Renewables was roughly flat, these were largely driven by our increased focus on profitable growth. Examples include reducing turnkey scope in Gas Power, exiting new coal in Power Portfolio and increasing project selectivity in Renewables. Next, Industrial margins expanded 110 basis points, with Power, Renewables and Healthcare all contributing. Ex-Aviation, margins expanded 450 basis points. A couple of standouts. One, Gas Power services with double-digit revenue growth and significant margin expansion, and this was supported by better performance in our transactional and CSA portfolios. And two, Healthcare margin expansion. This was driven by better volume and cost productivity due to our lean efforts and expense management. We also continued to see sustainable benefits from our cost actions, including reduced headcount of roughly 23,000 year-over-year. We are on track to realize the incremental $1 billion of benefits in 2021. Finally, adjusted EPS was $0.03 in the quarter. This reflects $0.04 of improvement year-over-year, ex-BioPharma, driven in roughly equal parts by Industrial and Capital performance. As we walk from continuing to adjusted EPS, we need to exclude the positive Baker mark as well as the negative impact of significant higher cost restructuring programs and non-operating expenses, primarily pension. Overall, we’re encouraged by our Industrial margin improvement. Moving to cash. Industrial free cash flow was negative $845 million, a use of cash and a decline from the fourth quarter, which we expect seasonally, consistent with what we shared earlier in the quarter. However, we saw significant progress across a number of our businesses with cash flow up $1.4 billion year-over-year and, ex-BioPharma, up $1.7 billion, driven by earnings and working capital improvement. Looking at earnings, they were down year-over-year on a reported basis. However, as I mentioned earlier, earnings were up, excluding the impact of BioPharma and Baker, with adjusted Industrial organic profit up 18%. Moving to working capital. This was a use of $900 million this quarter. We’re seeing progress across the board, with payables and inventories contributing the most of the improvement. Looking at the flows within the quarter. Receivables were sourced from higher seasonal collections and daily management, while we also reduced short-term factoring, which negatively impacted our free cash flow by $800 million. Our focus on stronger billings and collections continued, with two days of DSO improvement. For example, in Aviation Services, within our CSA portfolio, we’re using value stream mapping and daily management and have improved billing timeliness by 15%. Inventory was a use of cash of $700 million. This was largely driven by Renewables, as expected, to support second half volume. Inventory remains a key focus area for all leaders. Take our Healthcare business, where we’re improving by 0.5 turn year-over-year. When I recently visited our team in Life Care Solutions, they showed me how their Hoshin Kanri project reduced inventory by more than 5% already this quarter, while delivering cost savings. We’re continuously sharing these learnings across GE to inspire and accelerate further improvement. Payables was a use of $400 million. We saw seasonally lower volume in Power and Aviation. There was a significant improvement year-over-year. Progress was also a use of $400 million as deliveries outpaced collections. Contract assets was flat as deliveries offset collections. So, working capital, without the $800 million impact of the factoring reduction, would have been close to flat this quarter. And year-over-year, working capital flow was $1.6 billion better. Overall, a significant improvement. We’re carefully optimizing our capital investments to drive long-term growth. CapEx spend was up 18% sequentially, yet down 37% year-over-year. We’ve increased rigor in our investments by focusing on high-return and strategically differentiated technologies, including the Haliade-X in Renewables and PDx capacity expansion in Healthcare. In all, our efforts to improve working capital are taking hold and with additional opportunities near term. Over time, sustainable free cash flow generations will mainly come from profitable organic growth, combined with higher margins and longer-term efficient capital deployment. Turning to liquidity and leverage on slide 6. We’ve continued to solidify our financial position. This quarter, we reduced debt by approximately $4 billion. Our liquidity is strong, and we have ample additional liquidity sources for future deleveraging actions. This includes proceeds from the GECAS transaction, positive cash flow and monetizing our remaining stakes in Baker and AerCap. Post transaction close, we expect to reduce debt significantly, bringing our total reduction to more than $70 billion since the end of 2018. Additionally, we do not anticipate any further funding requirement for the GE pension plan in the foreseeable future. And by that, I mean the end of the decade. This is due to our $2.5 billion pre-funding in 2020, our investment portfolio performance as well as the recently enacted American Rescue Plan Act. Since the beginning of 2019, we reduced our factoring balance by $8 billion, bringing it down to about $6 billion at quarter end. Effective April 1st, we discontinued the majority of our factoring programs. As I talked about our outlook, we’ll exclude the related cash flow impact going forward, which we expect to be between $3.5 billion and $4 billion. The majority of this will be felt in the second quarter. Combining this with $3.5 billion to $4 billion with the $800 million reported cash impact in the first quarter from the normal course activity gets you to the $4 billion to $5 billion range of cash that we described last month. If you apply the same logic and cancel out the factoring effect from our discontinued programs in 2020, after rebaselining for BioPharma and COVID-related volume in Healthcare, you get to rebaseline free cash flow of about positive $2.4 billion in 2020. Our 2021 reported free cash flow range of $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion includes the impact of the negative $800 million factoring in the first quarter. Excluding the full year impact from factoring, the majority of our cash flow improvement in 2021 comes from earnings. As we reduce our reliance on factoring, we will continue to focus with further improvement on our core billings and collections capabilities, leading to better cash performance over time. And there is no change to our view from outlook, where the improvement is driven by our underlying operating performance. Due to us reducing factoring as well as better managing working capital and cash, our pre-quarterly cash needs have decreased more than $4 billion in a year, a significant improvement. In all, we expect to achieve net debt-to-EBITDA of less than 2.5 times over the next few years and maintain a strong investment-grade rating. Moving to our business results, which I’ll speak to on an organic basis. First, on Power. Our Gas Power and Power Portfolio teams continue to make progress. We’re especially encouraged by the growth in Gas Power services. Overall, Power remains on track to deliver their financial commitments for the year. Looking at the market, global electricity demand grew 3% this quarter, driving GE gas turbine utilization and CSA billings up high single digits. Orders declined 12% in the quarter. At Gas Power, equipment orders were down 50%, driven by the non-repeat of a large turnkey order. However, we booked 18 turbines, up 9. And notably, service orders were up 11% with contractual and transactional growth. This was driven by higher outages and stronger commercial performance compared to the pandemic-related disruptions last year. At Power Portfolio, orders were down 16% as we expected, driven by our planned exit of the newbuild coal business as well. This was partially offset by double-digit growth at Power Conversion. Backlog of $78 billion decreased year-over-year, largely driven by timing of equipment orders and contractual service commitments. Gas Power accounts were roughly 80% of this backlog. Revenue was down. Gas Power was down 2%. This was driven by equipment, down 25%. We had significantly lower turnkey scope project, as anticipated, while at the same time, we shipped more heavy-duty gas turbines this quarter, up 6. And we commissioned 3.6 gigawatts of power to the grid, including 3 HA units. As you heard from scope outlook, we’ve been more selective on turnkey projects and we’re transitioning to more equipment projects, which is better risk return equation over time. We saw meaningful improvement in services revenue, up 13%, due to strong transactional backlog execution and higher outages. Our Portfolio revenue was down 9%, driven by Steam, offsetting this, Power Conversion and Nuclear were both up. Segment margin was negative, but improving by 110 basis points. Gas Power margin was positive and expanded significantly. This was largely driven by positive mix from high-margin services volume and reducing fixed costs. Power Portfolio margin contracted, but largely driven by Steam project execution and unfavorable legacy project arbitration resolutions. We’re progressing through our planned exit of new build coal and concluded our European Works Council consultations this quarter. Both Power Conversion and Nuclear expanded margins, operational improvements continued. Turning to Renewables. We’re playing a leadership role in the energy transition while building a profitable growth business for GE. We continue to improve operational execution and scale Offshore Wind and we remain on track for our full year commitment. Starting with the market. In Onshore Wind, we’re expecting the U.S. market to slightly decrease this year, while robust growth continues abroad. In Offshore Wind, the strong market trends are expected to continue through the decade. And broadly speaking, Grid is positioned to gain momentum as the energy transition accelerates and government stimulus increases. Now on the quarter. Orders grew double digits in Onshore, Offshore and Grid Solutions, all up. Grid was the biggest driver following a large HVDC system order. Onshore Wind Services, including more than 120 repower units, increased significantly. Offshore Wind is building momentum, with more Haliade-X orders expected in the second half. Revenue was flat, with equipment revenues growth up high single digits, offset by a significant decline in services. In Onshore Wind, equipment was higher with more than 760 units delivered, while services were down as we did not deliver any repower upgrades. However, digital services were up significantly, excluding repower. Offshore wind growth was driven by continued execution on EDF 6-megawatt PBG project in France. Grid declined due to deal selectivity and commercial execution. Segment margin, while negative, improved by 310 basis points. In Onshore Wind, margin improved significantly, driven by cost productivity and execution, partly offset by product mix. In Grid, cost out more than offset incremental restructuring expenses. Next, on Aviation. Our team continues to position the business for the rebound, despite current market challenges. As the Aviation end market recovers, which we believe will begin in the second half, we expect to deliver on our ‘21 outlook, revenue growth, margin expansion and better cash generation. GE CFM departures were down 40% year-over-year, in line with our guide from outlook. We’re encouraged that March departure levels improved significantly versus January and February. But regional pressures continue, especially in Europe and Asia, ex-China. Orders were down more than 25%, with Commercial Services down more than 40%, but some improvement sequentially, and Commercial Engines, down less than 10%, supported by multiple large orders, including 1 for 22 GE9X engines. The Aviation backlog stands at about $260 billion, down slightly sequentially. The largest drivers were Commercial Engines and Services, with approximately 400 LEAP-1B cancellations. For context, our LEAP unit backlog stands at more than 9,200 engines. The revenue decline was driven by Commercial Engines, down double digits, and Commercial Services down 40%. Commercial Services saw lower spare parts sales and lower shop visits. Although dynamics varied by engine and region, shop visits were broadly in line with our guided outlook. In military, revenue was flat due to favorable equipment mix, despite 50 lower unit shipments. Overall, engine deliveries remain pressured, primarily in rotorcraft, and our team continues to address these supply chain challenges. Segment margin contracted to approximately 13%, primarily driven by Commercial Services. However, decrementals improved to 19%, and margin expanded sequentially as our cost actions continue to take hold. We’re on track to realize the incremental $0.5 billion benefits in 2021. Moving to Healthcare. We’re excited about the progress we’re seeing. The team’s strong performance shows how implementing lean and decentralization is driving real results. Overall, market fundamentals are also improving. For the third consecutive quarter, global procedures volumes were up double digits. Demand for non-pandemic products was solid as government stimulus drove strong order growth in China, India and Japan. Meanwhile, demand for pandemic-related products began to normalize. We’re seeing elective procedures return to pre-pandemic levels, but there is still much for us to do to support our customers. Many are running at reduced capacity and have patients waiting longer than usual for screenings, treatments and procedures. With that backdrop, Healthcare orders continued to improve. Healthcare Systems orders were up 5% with equipment and services growth. Imaging and Ultrasound improved double digits, both year-over-year and compared to the first quarter ‘19. And CT grew across all regions, while Life Care Solution orders were down as pandemic-related demand softened. PDx demand continued to recover, with orders up 7%, driven by CT screening for cardiac disease and routine oncology and neurology screenings returning to pre-pandemic levels. Healthcare revenue was also up. Healthcare Systems, up 7% across businesses. Two highlights
Larry Culp:
Carolina, thanks. Let’s go to slide 9. In summary, this quarter was a solid start to 2021. Thanks to our team, we’re making measurable and sustainable progress, and we’re set up well to deliver on our 2021 commitments that we shared with you in March. Since joining GE, one of my top priorities has been instilling greater focus throughout the organization. The GECAS transaction announced last month marks an important step forward in making GE a more focused, simpler and stronger industrial company, we’re even better positioned to serve the needs of our customers and the world with leading technologies and strong service capabilities across our installed base. As we are building a world that works, we’re also creating a more sustainable future, leading in the energy transition, driving more integrated and personalized healthcare and enabling smarter and more efficient flight. I hope the business examples we’ve shared today helped convey the real operational and cultural changes underway at GE. There are many steps, big and small, happening across our Company right now that make me excited about the future. We remain focused on growth, profit and cash generation, and I’m confident in our ability to drive value for the long term. Steve, with that, let’s go to questions.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Larry. And before we open the line, I’d ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts again, and ask just one question so we can get to as many people as possible. John, can you please open the line?
Operator:
Yes. And our first question is from Markus Mittermaier from UBS.
Markus Mittermaier:
Good morning Larry, Carolina and Steve. Maybe I’ll start with the bigger picture question here, Larry. So, you talked more and more about playing offense and playing for the long term here. If I bring this back to free cash flow, I know that you kind of guide to 2023 at high single-digit free cash flow margins, but you removed a lot of headwinds. Carolina mentioned that the pension headwind is gone potentially now to the end of the decade. The factoring headwind, I think, even if you look at the near-term here, the 4 to 5 guide that you all reflected, I think, the near-term impact is probably $800 million less. So, de facto, I think you kind of implicitly increased your cash flow guide today, unless I’m misinterpreting that. But, if I take it more to the long term, right, and I look at sort of these removed headwinds, and peers in a lot of your business being significantly above that high-single-digit free cash flow margin, how do you think about the portfolio and that target in the long term?
Larry Culp:
Markus, a couple of comments there. Let me just level set. I think, what we’re trying to do today is reiterate that what we said, what, a month ago or so, at the GECAS announcement, with respect to our outlook for this year, in terms of free cash potential, the 2.5 to 4.5, that’s intact, right? So, no intention to change that. As Carolina highlighted, we did have $800 million of factoring discontinuation pressure in the first quarter that we’re not adjusting for, but we do want to flag it for you because it’s akin to what we will adjust for more formally the rest of the year now that we have formally discontinued the factoring program. But I think that as you ask about the longer term, there’s no question that we feel confident today about our potential to deliver on that high-single-digit free cash flow margin in ‘23 or hopefully shortly thereafter, right? And we’re really talking about, you take the midpoint of that, call it 8% on, let’s say, the ‘19 revenue base, somewhere in the $85 billion to $90 billion range, that gets us to a $7 billion free cash number. I think, given the way we are running the businesses better today, at least compared to what I saw when I walked in 2.5 years ago, the opportunities I think we have clearly framed in front of us around the energy transition, around precision health, around the future of flight. And as you highlight, as Carolina noted, a number of headwinds will dissipate over time, be it some of the restructuring and power, be it pension. I mean what terrific news that is for us, in addition to the interest step down and the like. So, there’s a lot of things that we’re working on, that we’re encouraged by. There are a number of things that are going to dissipate over time. And you put all that together, well, we’ve got plenty of work to do. So, there’s no declaration of victory here. I think, we’re just trying to underscore our continued confidence that we can deliver on those numbers over time. Clearly, we need Aviation to come back. I think we’re encouraged by a number of the signs there. The U.S., clearly coming back. China, above where they were a year ago, let alone ‘19, at this point. So, that’s encouraging. But certainly, other parts of the world, as you well know, are still fighting this horrible pandemic. That creates a little bit of the volatility that we referred to. But all in, we continue to believe the Aviation recovery is more a matter of when, not if. And again, with that 37,000 strong narrow-body fleet out there, the youngest in the industry, we think we’re well positioned to serve and to deliver results for our investors as that occurs.
Operator:
Our next question is from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Just wanted to try and clarify that Q2 Industrial free cash flow comment. So, is the point that when you’re talking about the year-on-year improvement, we should expect of that, I suppose, $2.1 billion base, we should be thinking about a sort of $1.7 billion increase ex-BioPharma? I just wanted to make sure which sort of comparison point we were using. And also, maybe allied to that, any comments around how satisfied you are with the progress on Aviation profitability? You already hit a low-double-digit margin in Q1, and that was the guide for the year.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Okay. So, let me start with the question on the second quarter free cash flow. So, what I mentioned was that we saw the improvement year-over-year, to your point there, of 1.7, excluding BioPharma of free cash flow, and we do expect to see a similar improvement in the second quarter. So, that’s the right way to look at it.
Larry Culp:
Julian, good morning. With respect to Aviation, you’re right. The 12.8% op margin print in the quarter is good, all things considered, but organically down 200 basis points from where we were a year ago. I think the top line, a little softer than we had anticipated, primarily a function of services getting off to a slightly slower start. And frankly, we continue to be challenged. I think we mentioned this in our prepared remarks, on the military side of the house, just in terms of deliveries. So, we have some past due backlog there that we need to clear, which will be helpful as well. So, as we go through the year, I think you’ll see the cost efforts from last year play out. Clearly, the comps get easier. And as we get a better mix of business, with services coming back, we clear those issues in military -- in the military side of the business, I think you should continue to see us improve the margins from here. But again, we really need that overall market recovery to play out as we believe it will largely in the beginning of the second half.
Operator:
Our next question is from Steve Tusa from JP Morgan.
Steve Tusa:
So, just a follow-up on Julian’s question. Can you just give us the base of what the factoring headwind actually was last year in the first quarter and the second quarter on an absolute basis? And then, for the year, is the $800 million you did in the first quarter plus the 3.5 to 4 in the second, is that how you get to the 4 to 5, or is a part of the 4 to 5 still to come after second quarter? It’s just a bit confusing. I think, an 8-K with all this would be helpful. But just if you could be specific about the first quarter impact, absolute impact in ‘20, and the second quarter absolute impact in ‘20 that we can kind of figure out what the basis is.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
So, maybe let us go back to outlook. So the outlook, we said that we would basically discontinue the majority of our factoring programs, right? And we talked about that the impact of that would be $4 billion to $5 billion on our cash flow, right? So what you see is the $800 million of reduction that we have in the first quarter. That’s still in our numbers, because it’s before we technically discontinued, right? So, you have that $800 million. And then we expect 2Q through 4Q to be $3.5 billion to $4 billion, the majority of that in the second quarter. So, if you take that together, you get 4.3 to 4.8 for the full year, and that’s then in line with the 4 to 5 that we shared at outlook.
Steve Tusa:
And what is the year-over-year impact of these -- because we’re talking about absolute free cash flow impact versus year-over-year impact. Sometimes, I don’t know, people talk about the impact being year-over-year versus absolute. What is kind of the year-over-year impact?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes, exactly. And that’s also why when we’re talking about it, we talked about the impact in 2021, but that’s also why we’re helping you to rebaseline 2020, reduce sort of from the factoring noise. And if you do that, we talked at outlook about 2020, starting with $600 million. You rebase that for, we talked about the COVID and we talked about BioPharma to zero. If you then take out the equivalent, you get a positive free cash flow of $2.4 billion for 2020. And your question specifically on the first quarter, in the first quarter in 2021, you obviously have the headwind of $800 million that you saw in our numbers here, that you then mentally adjust for. And then the equivalent of last year’s reduction of those programs is about $1 billion, right? So, if you do the comparison there, those are the numbers for the first quarter.
Operator:
Our next question is from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. And just not to talk too much about factoring, but $1.7 billion improvement you expect in Industrial free cash flow in the second quarter. So, just can you walk us through how much of it is factoring drag going away? And how much of the year-over-year improvement is earnings-driven versus other working capital improvement? And if you could just give us directionally color by segment as to what drives the year-over-year improvement. That would be great as well.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi Andrew. So, if we start with the improvement for second quarter, what we are saying is that we expect the improvement to be roughly in line to the improvement that you saw in the first quarter. And that’s on a reported basis, right? When it comes to the composition of that, we expect a healthy part of that to be profit improvement, but also working capital improvement.
Operator:
Our next question is from Jeffrey Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Let me just kind of join the free cash flow question party here. I guess, my question would be, with the type of visibility that you have on Q2 at this point, the year range actually feels kind of wide now, right, certainly looking at kind of historical patterns. Maybe just a little color on what the big variances are in the back half, right? I know you’re going to have 787 ADAs and progress payments moving around, like what are the really big kind of swing factors or cushion items that maybe define the lower end of that range for the year?
Larry Culp:
Yes. Let me take that at the outset. I’m not sure I would buy into your premise that we’ve got the visibility that you’re suggesting that we do. I think, the range that we have today in line, obviously, with the range that we’ve shared since early in the year, captures what we know and what we don’t know. Clearly, we’re waiting for Aviation to begin to snap back. That is an important swing factor for us. And I think we’ve been consistent talking about that. I don’t think there’s much of a historic whole precedent in that business given the way the pandemic is ravaging various parts of the world and in turn, both leisure and business travel. Clearly, we have a new administration that’s doing a lot of good things, medium to long term here to help, I think, fuel our Renewables business and the growth there. But the order book, as it often is, is backloaded in Onshore and Offshore. And we -- as our customers do need to have, I think, better visibility with respect to number of funding programs, tax policy changes and regulatory approvals, that will have real impact on orders and in turn, down payments in that business. So, I don’t want to lay out a long list, but there are a number of moving pieces here. And given the nature of our business, as you well know, a number of orders are often large and they carry with them significant cash impacts when they happen and negative effects when they don’t. So, I think what we’re going to do going forward is what we’ve done here in the last several years, tell you what we know, tell you what we don’t. I think we’re mindful that the factoring dynamic creates some noise here. But again, as we’ve said a couple of times, no change to the effect, $4 billion to $5 billion, as we discontinue the factoring programs. And operationally, we feel good about the $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion. If we can get to the high end of that range, great; if we can do better, we will. But it’s a long-term game here, and that’s the way we’re going to play it out.
Operator:
Our next question is from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research. Nigel, your line is open. Our next question is from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
There’s a lot of angst right now across the industrials about cost inflation, supply chain disruptions. I did see in the appendix, on the military aviation, cited some supply chain pressures. But just broadly, where are the pinch points? Is it -- would it represent a particular headwind for the second quarter or for the balance of the year? And any update there would be helpful.
Larry Culp:
Sure. Deane, you’re touching on a couple of different things. Let me try to take them in order. From a price cost perspective, a number of moving pieces. We’re clearly seeing some price pressure, not unlike what you’ve heard about elsewhere, resins, certain metals. But I think we’ve also been able to mitigate that in the first quarter to effectively a wash number of things that we do normal course from a cost management perspective, let alone going after price where we can. I think, where we’re seeing supply issues particularly are in and around where we’re seeing a little bit better growth, interestingly enough, not surprisingly, Healthcare probably being number one, Renewables being the other, again, chips, resins and the like. I think right now, it’s more isolated, call it nuisance would be maybe an understatement, but I think we’re working through that and presumably have that captured in the guide that we’re reiterating today. With respect to military, that’s a little bit of a different challenge, right? That’s not a price cost play. That’s not a supply chain disruption issue given the snapback. There are a number of things that we need to do a better job of inside of our own facilities. We need help from our supply base there so that we’ve got a smoother, more consistent flow into and out of -- into through and out of the manufacturing processes. So, we’re working on that. That’s not going to be something that we declare victory on here in the second quarter. But rest assured, we’re spending a lot of time working those issues with our customers in mind, first and foremost. So, hopefully, that gives you a little bit of a color for what’s happening operationally. These are the challenges when you get economic recovery, and we’re glad to see these challenges because it suggests that better times are on the way.
Operator:
Our next question is from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
So, I want to ask a question on insurance. Obviously, GECAS goes a long way to sort of making the balance sheet a lot simpler. Insurance seems to be the next logical step. And I’m wondering if some of the improvements we’re seeing in claims experience, obviously more equity buffer there, rising rates, whether that means that insurance is even close to being on the table at this point?
Larry Culp:
Well, Nigel, I would say that a number of those trends clearly are encouraging and helpful here in the very near term. I’m not sure that we’re quite ready today to suggest that all of that means that we could do something along the strategic dimension with insurance. I think, we will continue to manage premium. I think we’ll manage claims, let alone the investment portfolio, as thoughtfully as we can as long as that run-off liability is in our hands. But I do think that given that the curves have more or less played out as we remodeled them a few years back, clearly, you’ve got the COVID effects, GE is in a very different place today. I’m optimistic that we’ll continue to explore strategic options in and around insurance, and we’ll see what happens. I don’t want anyone to bank on that as a dead cert. But by the same token, I think what you’ve heard us say for some time is we’re very keen to focus on our core four Industrial businesses. Insurance is not inside that perimeter. So, if and when we have an opportunity to do something smart, creative and strategic around insurance, rest assured, we’ll give that our full attention.
Operator:
And our next question is from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just Larry, going back to a comment I think you made on outlook about shop visits in Aviation and maybe not using that as a single point metric, that scope is also an important factor. Just given that your comment earlier that Aviation is kind of an important swing factor in the second half, how are you seeing that scope or kind of dollar per shop visit evolve? Is that trending within your expectations? And any trend line there that we can point to that say that things are getting sort of better or worse as the world unfreezes?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think, the expectation, Josh, is that things will get better in terms of not only, if you will, volume of shop visits, but scope or the value of a shop visit. That said, there are different types of shop visits, right, some of which we perform, some of which we don’t. I think, we’ve got better visibility, clearly, when we’re doing all the work. I think, that is playing out as we would have anticipated. You well know a number of cross currents and pressures there in the short term, is airlines, battle of COVID. We’ve got less visibility on the channel side of things. And I think we clearly see signs that over the last several quarters, a number of our partners have brought inventory levels down. That doesn’t necessarily mean a scope reduction on the part of the shop visit being performed, but it does have a knock-on effect relative to the value for us in the very near term. But, like any distribution or third-party-related business I’ve ever seen, you see those behaviors in the downturn and then you get a lift off that base. And that is part of what I think we will see. That’s part of what we are assuming we will see as we see the snapback in shop visits going forward. But that all needs to play out. Again, a number of encouraging signs in certain markets, the U.S. and China, first amongst them. But clearly, some signs in places like India, like the rest of Asia Pac, parts of Europe, that are of concern and need to stabilize before they improve.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Larry, could you give us a little more color into how you’re thinking about execution in Healthcare? I know you said in your outlook call that you’re only going to increase Healthcare margin for the year by 25 to 75 basis points. But, as you said, it’s up 270 basis points organically. So, did you, for instance, not increase R&D yet as much as you thought? Are you seeing just better mix? And I know it’s early, maybe you’re a bit worried about supply chain, but could that margin forecast that you have in Healthcare end up being quite conservative?
Larry Culp:
Andy, I would say that, credit to the team, we have really three quarters here running where despite a choppy, somewhat unpredictable top line given the pandemic, they’ve done a heck of a job on margins and cash, right? And I just think that is a function of a lot of the lean work we’ve talked about. That’s probably our operating segment where we have pushed decentralization the furthest to date. And I do think we’re seeing some early results there. There’s no question that they’ve gotten off to a good start, right? Orders, up 5%. Let’s remember though, it’s a bit of a Dickens’ dynamic, right, two cities, pandemic-related products, well off where we were a year ago. But the core Imaging and Ultrasound franchises, from an orders perspective, are up over 20% year-on-year in the first quarter. That gives you a little bit of a sense of the play there. And that’s really where precision health happens. With due respect, it’s not ventilators and patient monitors. They have a role to play, but it really is in and around CT, Ultrasound and the core Imaging products. I think, as we go forward, while we’re encouraged by the 270 bps, if we are getting a market snapback more than we would have anticipated and if we see that being sustainable, in addition to the operating improvements we’re going to make, I think what you’ll see us do Andy is, frankly, try to temper the margin expansion this year and look to put more money back into the business. In no way does that suggest we have not been funding those opportunities that we have wanted to, but you have to follow really the history of the last couple of years, right? We were prepping for an IPO. We pulled that off. Sold BioPharma, that’s a distraction. Getting back to basics. Head long into a pandemic. We’re really, I think, getting into calmer water in Healthcare, which gives us an opportunity, now that I think we’re proving we can deliver on margins and cash, to drive growth, put more money into it, but make sure those are good investments, be it in sales force additions, be it in digital, be it in new products, right? So, we’re not going to call that today, but don’t be surprised if we continue to see good top and bottom line performance, that we call off some of the outsized margin improvements, so that we’re putting that back into the business and have a good ‘21 but also a good ‘22, a good ‘23 in a business that I think more people are going to appreciate as a real value driver for GE going forward.
Steve Winoker:
John, we’re late at this point. Why don’t we take one last question and then we’ll call it and follow up with everybody else offline.
Operator:
And we have it from Scott Davis from Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
You guys talk a lot about lean; you talk about the turnaround, talk a little bit less about price. And I guess, it’s a different number of business, I’m sure, but how are you going about changing kind of the historic bidding process. I know you did mention price a few questions ago, but how important is price to -- particularly net price to the turnaround and things like Renewables?
Larry Culp:
Well, in Renewables, Scott, if we just focus there, when we talk about selectivity, that really is about price and margins, but also about terms and conditions, which I think of as really, if you will, risk that isn’t necessarily modeled but can come back and course through and wreck the P&L, if we’re not careful. So, a good bit of what you see happening in Onshore Wind, and I think increasingly in Grid, is a little less of an aggressive pursuit of the top line with more of a balanced approach to go after the business where we’re well positioned, where we can serve and make a little bit of money, hopefully, a little bit more money over time, but also have a less -- have a better risk profile, right, to make sure that we’re in the geographies, we’re in the applications where we have higher confidence. So, it’s not priced the way it is in Healthcare, obviously. But, if you go through our deal review process, I think you would see that selectivity in those two areas in Renewables, and it’s very much the same process we are driving across the organization. Now, there are plenty of things that we’ll do in the short-term, price where we can, surcharges. A number of our long-term contracts across the company have inflation-based escalators in them, which helps us in environments like the one we may see play out here in the next couple of years. But, we’re really just, again, trying to pursue the quality business across the portfolio where we can serve the customer well and do that in a way that drives margins and cash for our investors.
Steve Winoker:
John, I think, we’re going to have to call it at that point. To everybody, I want to thank you for your patience at the beginning of the call. My team and I stand ready to help clarify your questions. I know there’s some complexity that people are trying to work through on the factoring, which we’ve tried to clarify, but we’re available to help really get it down and fine-tune it for everybody. Okay? So, I look forward to speaking to you. And have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today’s call. Thank you for participating. And you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Brandon, and I'll be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker :
Thanks, Brandon. Good morning, and welcome to GE's fourth quarter 2020 earnings call. I'm joined by our Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Before we start, I'd like to remind you that the press release and presentation are available on our website. Note that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. Please note that we will hold an Investor Call on March 10th to provide more detail on our 2021 outlook. With that, I'll hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp :
Steve, thanks, and good morning, everyone. It's hard to think of a tougher year than 2020. However, our team performed and the fourth quarter marked a strong free cash flow finish to the year. Starting with our results snapshot on Slide 2. Industrial free cash flow came in at $4.4 billion in the quarter, $0.5 billion higher than last year. This was largely driven by better working capital and improved renewables and power orders. For the year, we generated positive free cash flow of $600 million or $300 million, excluding BioPharma in the first quarter. Despite the weakness in Aviation, Healthcare drove our performance, delivering $2.9 billion of free cash, and power and renewables continued to improve. Orders were down 3% organically in the quarter. While down, this was a considerable improvement from the second and third quarters. In 3 of our 4 segments, orders were in fact up, notably equipment orders at Renewables and Power were up double-digits. For the year, orders were down 17%, with 95% of this pressure Aviation related. Despite this, our backlog remains a strength at $387 billion with approximately 80% geared towards services where we have higher margins. Industrial revenue was down 14% organically and 13% for the year. Services were down 22% this quarter driven by the Aviation aftermarket despite some moderation, outages and upgrades in Power and power upgrades and renewables. While services may fluctuate quarter-to-quarter, especially as we've seen during the pandemic, they create a multiyear backlog of profitable business, and importantly, keep us close to our customers, and we expect to grow in '21. Industrial margin was 6.4% this quarter, and 3.4% for the year. While this was an organic contraction on both measures, we saw sequential improvement through the year due to our more than $2 billion of cost actions. Adjusted EPS was $0.08 for the quarter and $0.01 for the year, which includes an impact for the restructuring recast of $0.02 for the quarter and $0.05 for the year. Carolina will expand on this momentarily. In all, momentum is growing across our businesses. As 2020 progressed, we significantly improved GE's profitability and cash performance despite a still difficult macro environment. We're encouraged by the significant free cash flow growth this quarter. We came into 2020 with a clear game plan at GE. We were expecting strong performance from Aviation and Healthcare while executing our turnarounds at Power and Renewables. We all know how the story goes. The COVID-19 pandemic hit and it hit us hard, but our battle-tested team embraced the new realities and moved on. This is best evidenced by the meaningful progress on our priorities. Looking at Slide 3. One, we strengthened our businesses. This started first with what matters most, protecting the safety of our employees and taking care of our customers and our communities. At the same time, we remain focused on what we can control. We continue to build our world-class team at all levels with new leaders joining our existing strong bench of GE talent, and these leaders are playing a critical role in GE's operational and cultural transformation. In support of our transformation and better results, we executed more than $3 billion of cash actions. This enabled strong free cash flow generation in the quarter, bringing us again into positive territory for the full year. Specifically at Gas Power, we delivered positive cash flow 1 year ahead of our commitments due to our cost measures and operational improvements. And we saw traction across our other businesses. For example, all 3 Power portfolio businesses generated profit growth this quarter, the first time in 2 years. Two, we continue to solidify our financial position. Despite the ongoing market uncertainty, our liquidity remains strong, bolstered by our free cash flow performance. We exited the quarter with $37 billion of cash. You'll recall that in early 2020, we completed the sale of our BioPharma business for $20 billion. This cash enabled us to accelerate our balance sheet deleveraging efforts. And since the beginning of 2019, we've reduced external debt by $30 billion. And three, we're building our foundation for long-term profitable growth. This starts with GE's purpose. Rising to the challenge of building a world that works. We're leading in some of the world's most important markets, the energy transition, precision health and the future of flight. And we're passionate about delivering for our customers while tackling the world's biggest problems. We're seeing this as we help customers decarbonize through leading technology across wind, gas power generation, and modernizing the power grid with digital and automation solutions. And this really came to life at Healthcare this year, where we were on the front lines responding to the exponential increases in demand in certain products due to COVID-19. And we're keeping our sights on the long-term. Healthcare launched more than 40 new products, including the Mural Virtual Care Solution, which provides a complete view of patient status across a care area, hospital or system. And we announced that we acquired Prismatic Sensors, which has photon counting technology, a huge leap forward in the quality of images that can be captured on a CT. So as we play more offense in 2021, our team is energized about making our purpose a reality every day. Now lean is how we will do this across GE and the real unfinished business. In the last 2 years, we've laid the groundwork, establishing our Kaizen promotion office and introducing lean fundamentals across the company. Now we're picking up the pace, scaling lean company-wide with an eye towards operational and financial impact through safety, quality, delivery, cost and cash improvements. In digital grid, for example, our team used problem-solving and daily management to reduce quality defects by 25%. This helped drive savings that enabled the business to grow operating profit by 60% in 2020. As this team shows, you can apply lean in any part of the business, not just in manufacturing. One of our key leadership behaviors is delivering with focus, which means ruthlessly prioritizing where we can add the greatest value. Two key opportunities for GE are aftermarket services and digital, often working in tandem to transform what we can do for our customers on a daily basis. For example, our renewables and digital teams are working together to develop AI enhanced wind turbine inspections to reduce blade failures. In turn, earlier detection will help improve safety as well as reduce repair time and cost. These advances are possible due to our ongoing commitment to investing in innovation. We also had some major product launches this year with the Haliade-X wind turbine and the GE9X engine receiving certifications. Both machines are leaders in their own rights offering incredible power output and efficiency. So 2020 is certainly a year none of us will ever forget for its challenges, but even more so for how the world rose to meet them. At GE, I'm proud of the way we persevered in the face of great uncertainty, and we're set up well for the year ahead. With that, Carolina will provide further details on our quarterly results.
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Thanks, Larry. Broadly speaking, I'm also pleased with how we're progressing on our priorities. We're becoming more operational. We're deepening our focus on cash flow and we're using lean and automation to improve speed, quality and scale. And you've started to see evidence of this in our margin and cash flow numbers. I'll share some examples with you today. Turning to Slide 4. Larry covered our consolidated results, so let me provide some additional color on our earnings performance. First, we made some notable reporting enhancements. This better aligned with how we operate our businesses and will help us drive improvements. They also further enhance transparency and disclosure quality. Of particular note, we now include restructuring expense expected for significant and higher cost programs in adjusted EPS and in our segment results. This will drive accountability in managing costs and benefit at the businesses. The restructuring recast was an impact of $0.02 in the quarter and $0.05 for the year. Second, we're still managing through significant market volatility. Aviation continues to heavily impact our overall performance, pressuring our top-line and our industrial profit, but we saw progress in our other businesses. This quarter, while overall industrial margin was down 350 basis points, excluding Aviation, margin expanded 340 basis points, reflecting swift actions and strong executions on our cost programs. As planned in 2020, we reduced structural headcount by more than 20,000 or 11%, and that's ex dispositions. Third, looking at continuing to adjusted EPS, much of this difference came from the steps we've taken to improve our financial position and operations. There were a couple of main drivers. This includes our Baker Hughes mark and $124 million of restructuring expense tied to the significant high cost programs. I'd also point out debt tender costs, additional BioPharma-related tax benefit and the remaining $100 million to close out the SEC matter. In all, as our actions took hold, we saw improving results to close this difficult year. Moving to cash. We generated $4.4 billion of industrial free cash flow this quarter, well above our expectations coming into the quarter. This is up $500 million year-over-year, but is also ex-BioPharma, up $900 million. All businesses delivered positive cash flow, largely driven by better working capital management. Cash flow benefited from positive earnings, healthy earnings were strong again this quarter. And together with Power and Renewables were enough to offset Aviation decline. You'll see that there are puts and takes between earnings and other CFOA. As seen in prior quarters, non-cash items such as the Baker Hughes mark-to-market impacted earnings but not cash, and they were offset in other CFOA. Consistent with how we run the business, which strengthens our working capital definition, broadening it to include current contract assets and other current items, while our free cash flow definitions remain unchanged. This quarter, working capital was the biggest driver of our free cash flow, a source of cash at $3.4 billion, this was significantly better sequentially and year-over-year due to seasonal volume and continued operational and financial process improvements. While we're seeing improvements across the board, inventory and payables were the net contributors to cash flow this quarter. Looking at the dynamics. Receivable naturally pressured from the higher seasonal volume in fourth quarter. We also reduced short-term factoring by $1.2 billion this quarter, bringing the total factoring balance down to $6.8 billion. Partially offsetting this was strong collections, resulting in a further decline in past dues and DSOs. Renewables was a standout this year, implementing a standard operating rhythm using lean to reduce its DSOs and its past dues by more than 25%. On inventory, we released $1.6 billion across all businesses through higher deliveries driven by seasonality and more rigorous material management. For example, Healthcare's MR team is implementing a real pull system in production. So far, this has improved on-time delivery by roughly 15 points and increased inventory turns by 0.5 turn. Payables were also a benefit as volume increased this quarter. Progress collections were a net $1 billion inflow. This was driven by cash collected from large orders closed in renewables and strong milestone deliveries, partially offset by Aviation and Power. Contract assets, a net $800 million of inflow, and this was due to Aviation CSA collections, including quarterly flight hours, annual minimum contract requirements and other items. We're still carefully optimizing our investments to drive returns aligned with our long-term objectives. We held CapEx flat sequentially. In fourth quarter, this represents a reduction of more than 50% year-over-year, and for the year, this is down 31%. But importantly, we continue to invest in high-return and strategically important projects. For the year, industrial free cash flow was $600 million. All businesses, except Aviation, improved cash flows and ended the year stronger than they began. Total Power generated positive free cash flow including Gas Power as we made faster progress on our fixed cost reductions and working capital improvements, despite the negative cash flows at Power portfolio. Healthcare delivered an impressive free cash flow of $2.9 billion, while overcoming a $1 billion headwind from the foregone cash flows of BioPharma. This was driven by higher earnings primarily from the pandemic-related demand, cost actions and better working capital. Free cash flow at Renewables was negative $600 million, but a $300 million improvement year-over-year despite the impact of the PTC cycle. The focus on inventory management is paying off, and we had strong progress from orders and milestone execution. Aviation free cash flow turned positive this quarter and was nearly breakeven for the year, enabled by our significant cash actions. Stepping back, our trajectory to sustainable cash flow growth was largely on self-help. I'm confident we're focused on the right areas, operational cash drivers that improve working capital, increasing our frequency of our operating rhythms and more linear cash flow generation throughout the quarters and the year. For example, all leaders have action plans to run their businesses leaner with lower inventory levels. In aggregate, our focus and actions to improve working capital are starting to pay off. Moving to the segment results, which I'll speak to on an organic basis. First, on Aviation. GE and CFM departures were down approximately 48% this quarter versus our January '20 baseline due to the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and further travel restrictions. The commercial aftermarket, which is critical to our recovery, showed some sequential improvement. Orders were down 40% year-on-year, but up more than 50% sequentially. Commercial Services was down more than 50% year-over-year, with commercial engines down 21%. It's important to recall that the fourth quarter of '19 included a $1.9 billion order from the aeroderivative joint venture formation. This was just under half of the total orders decline in dollar terms. Aviation backlog stands at $260 billion, down 5% year-over-year, yet flat sequentially. The largest driver was commercial engines as unit shipments and cancellations outpaced orders. Cancellations were about 400 units, primarily led 1B this quarter, significant. But for context, our ending LEAP backlog still stands at more than 9,600 engines. Revenue decline continued to moderate, down 34% this quarter, while revenue was up nearly 20% sequentially. Commercial engine revenue was down 47% as we shipped 309 fewer engines year-over-year. Commercial Services revenue was down nearly 50%. This was driven by lower spare parts sales and shop visits. Charges for long-term service agreements were approximately $150 million this quarter, roughly 1/3 is COVID-related. While customer demand remained strong in military, revenue was flat, falling short of our expectations. This was due to continued supply chain challenges, slowing shipments. Segment margin, 9.6%. Margin expanded sequentially driven by the cost actions and improved volume in commercial markets. Despite more than $100 million of continued higher costs due to lower production rates. Decremental margins this quarter were 48%, up sequentially. This was due to continued volume pressure and a tough margin comp of 23% from the fourth quarter in '19. So for the year, Aviation margin of 5.6% were supported by significant countermeasures. We realized savings of more than $1 billion of costs and $2 billion of cash actions. This work continues in '21. Moving to Healthcare. The team delivered another strong quarter. The Healthcare Systems market remained dynamic with elevated demand in COVID-19-related equipment, offset by softer demand for non-pandemic products. Regionally, public healthcare markets, such as Europe and China have been stronger than private markets, particularly U.S., India and Latin America. For the second consecutive quarter, global procedure volumes were relatively stable, with some regional variability as care providers postponed elective procedures due to COVID-19 spike. With that backdrop, healthcare orders continued to improve at 1%. In Healthcare Systems, orders grew 1%, Europe was up low double-digits and China up low single-digits. Services saw consistent growth, up low double-digits as we continue to provide critical support to our customers. In PDx demand continues to recover to pre-pandemic level, and orders were down 1%, but up slightly sequentially. Healthcare revenue was up 6%. Healthcare Systems was up 7%, FCF had solid execution, delivering a record number of ventilators. Non-pandemic-related volumes were also positive as we converted imaging backlog and ultrasound orders this quarter. From a regional perspective, we saw strong growth in Europe and China. This year, China revenue was more than $2 billion and up 11% in the quarter alone. U.S. revenue was more than $6.5 billion, up 2% for the year, including the U.S. government ventilator order. PDx revenue slightly down 1%. The segment margin was up 310 basis points this quarter, and 190 basis points for the year. While we continue to invest in new products, the team reduced structural costs, headcount was down roughly 1,200 this quarter, and the business maintained tighter control over discretionary costs. For the year, revenue was up 4%, with Healthcare Systems up 5%, and the margin was 17%. Our team delivered operational improvement and has headroom for more with an eye towards continued margin expansion. Turning to Power. Our team continued to make operational progress, particularly in cash generation. Starting with the market. Despite global electricity demand and gas-based power generation declining this quarter, GE gas turbine utilization, and therefore, our CSA billings were resilient, increasing mid-single digits, driven by our technology and commercial positioning in higher growth gas favored regions. As anticipated, we saw significant orders improvement. Gas Power equipment order more than tripled with HA wins in Asia and securing 45 to 50 heavy-duty gas turbine shipments in 2021. Service orders grew 7%, with double-digit growth in transactional and low single-digit growth in CSA, while upgrade declined moderated from earlier in 2020, down single digits. For the year, service orders were down 3%. Power portfolio orders were down 27%, largely driven by steam equipment. As we exit new build coal, this trend of limited steam equipment activity has continued. And as we execute backlog and rightsize the business, we expect this to flow through the financials. We ended with slightly higher backlog as growth in Gas Power more than offset declines in Power portfolio. Gas Power backlog of $66 billion grew roughly $700 million sequentially, driven by strong equipment and transactional services book-to-bill. Revenue was down slightly this quarter. In Gas Power revenue was down 3%, largely driven by services down 10%. We saw lower discretionary spend on upgrades and narrower scope of outages. For the year, we executed about 90% of our pre-COVID outage plan. Offsetting this was equipment revenue up double digits. We shipped 28 gas turbines this quarter, up 7 units year-over-year, for a total of 51 heavy-duty shipments in 2020, and we commissioned 4 gigawatts of power to the grid, including six HA units. In Power portfolio, revenue was up 5% primarily driven by steam equipment project execution. Our Power portfolio team performed about 95% of their pre-COVID outage plans. Segment margin of 6% was up 40 basis points, a double-digit reduction in Gas Power fixed costs was partially offset by negative revenue mix between equipment and services and some one-time non-cash charges, including for specific customer credit event. In Power portfolio, as Larry mentioned, all 3 businesses generated profit. Power conversion was a particular standout. Better execution led to margin expansion of 10 points year-over-year. For the year, Power revenues were down 5%, but has held margins at 1.5%. We offset pressure from lower services volume and one-time non-cash charges such as an underperforming joint venture for global aeroderivative packaging by reducing headcount by roughly 3,300 and decreasing Power fixed costs. Turning to Renewables. Our progress continues. This year, onshore wind delivered record volumes despite the pandemic. Offshore wind received full certification for both its 12-and 13-megawatt Haliade-X. In grid and hydro, our turnaround, showed improved results. Starting with the market. Onshore wind growth was sustained by international demand. Offshore wind continued to be supported by solid secular growth trends. And we've built a robust Haliade-X pipeline with total commitments of 5.7 gigawatts. Orders were up 32% year-over-year, representing the first quarter of growth since the third quarter in '19. This was driven by onshore wind with large equipment orders in North America and offshore wind with its first Haliade-X order of 95 units from the Dogger Bank wind farm in the UK. This double-digit order growth brings our backlog to a record high of $30 billion, and importantly, at better margins. We remain focused on underwriting discipline and better project selectivity. Revenue was down 7% driven by onshore wind, specifically, new units and repower upgrades were down 27% as our deliveries were more heavily weighted in the prior quarter due to the PTC dynamics. This was partially offset by growth in offshore wind and hybrids. Segment margin was slightly negative this quarter, though up 290 basis points year-over-year, was driven by cost productivity better pricing in onshore in North America and improved project execution. At grid, profit, while negative, improved significantly driven by our restructuring actions and better project execution. For Renewables, revenue was up for the year, and while the segment margin improved, it was still negative. Moving to GE Capital on Slide 7. We ended the year with $103 billion of assets, excluding liquidity. Continuing operations generated an adjusted net loss of $24 million this quarter. This was down year-over-year, primarily driven by lower gains at GECAS and EFS and higher taxes, partially offsetting lower EFS impairments and positive marks on the insurance investment portfolio. At GECAS, our team continued to work customer-by-customer through restructuring and, in some cases, repossessions. At year-end, the outstanding deferred balance was approximately $400 million. This was down slightly sequentially, both as a function of limited new deferrals as well as collections. Importantly, we've collected around 84% of what we've invoiced to date, and out of fleet of more than 900 aircraft, we ended the year with 27 aircraft on ground. This quarter, GECAS generated a profit of $120 million. That's down $94 million year-over-year driven primarily by the disposition of the PK Air in 2019 and market conditions. For the year, GECAS generated earnings of $50 million, excluding the second quarter goodwill impairment. Equipment lease impairments in the year totaled $542 million and $45 million in the quarter. Going forward, we continue to monitor credit risk as further credit deterioration could result in additional airline failures over and above those that we have considered in our reviews. Turning to insurance. The business generated net income of $112 million this quarter. This was largely driven by increases in the unrealized gains in the invested securities portfolio and in mark-to-market adjustments and realized gains. As it relates to the pandemic and adjusting for what we believe is timing related, in our LTC block, we continue to see reductions in new claims and higher policy terminations. In our runoff life business, we saw -- we still saw higher claims due to higher mortality. In our structured settlement block, we also saw higher mortality resulting in lower claims. Insurance will complete its annual statutory cash flow test in the first quarter of '21. As expected, GE provided a capital contribution to GE Capital of $2 billion, in line with the required annual insurance statutory funding for 2020. As we said in the third quarter, we expect an additional contribution from GE to GE Capital in '21 to meet its existing insurance statutory funding requirements of approximately $2 billion. In light of the uncertain environment, further 2021 contributions depend on GE Capital's performance, including GECAS' operations and the insurance CFT results. Shifting to corporate. Our focus on decentralization continues. We're driving more accountability to the segments and continue to resize the core in favor of the business units. This quarter, adjusted corporate costs were $443 million, down 23% year-over-year. Functional costs and operations improved as we saw further reduced headcount, which was down 13% for the year. GE Digital saw significant traction on profit and cash flow as the business improved operations and optimized its cost structure. Moving to Slide 8. We continue to improve our financial position despite the uncertain external environment. We ended the year with about $37 billion of total cash, more than $23 billion at GE and $13 billion at GE Capital. We also maintained $20 billion of credit lines. And through a series of actions this year, we reduced near-term liquidity needs through 2024 by $10.5 billion. We also continued to enhance our cash management operations, targeting more linear cash flow, lower factoring and less restricted cash. As a result, we reduced intra-quarter borrowings by $3.6 billion in 2020 or approximately 75% less year-over-year. Expanding on cash flow linearity. One focus area for our businesses has been improving the end-to-end cycle of order fulfillment, billing and collections. In our Healthcare System equipment business, for example, standard work is helping us level load the number of deliveries from the third month in the quarter to earlier in the quarter, smoothing out deliveries and collections. This is also reducing inventory and improving factory productivity. These types of operational improvements have reduced our industrial cash needs to below $13 billion on a go-forward basis. And this creates greater capacity to delever the company. However, we'll continue to hold elevated cash levels through this period of uncertainty. Turning to debt reduction. We made strong progress in 2020, reducing external debt by $16 billion, and our industrial net debt ended at $32 billion, down $16 billion in '20 and down $23 billion from '19. We also continue to derisk and actively manage our pension. In 2020, we decreased our pension deficit by $2.3 billion. The combination of strong asset returns at 17.6% and recent actions, such as the $2.5 billion pension prefunding, more than offset the impact of low interest rates. Based on our current assumptions, we won't need to make contributions through 2023 to the GE pension plan. In terms of leverage levels, industrial ended with a 5.9 times debt-to-EBITDA ratio due to lower EBITDA, reflecting pandemic-related pressure. We remain committed to achieving our industrial leverage target of 2.5 times net debt-to-EBITDA over time. At GE Capital, we ended 2020 with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.4%. And we expect to remain below our 4 times debt-to-equity target. In closing, our team has made meaningful progress this year. I'm encouraged by results we're seeing from the many, many changes underway. We'll continue to build on this momentum in 2021. Now Larry, back to you.
Larry Culp :
Carolina, thank you. Turning to page to 2021. We're planning to provide a full outlook for the company, including detailed segment information during our March Investor Call. But today, we'll share an overview for the total company in 2021. Moving to Slide 9. We're expecting organic growth in the low single-digit range for industrial revenue, organic expansion of 250-plus basis points for industrial operating margin, $0.15 to $0.25 for adjusted EPS and a range of $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion for industrial free cash flow. Of course, there are a number of key assumptions underpinning our plan for the year. First is the lost cash and earnings from dispositions, largely BioPharma, which, again, generated nearly $300 million in cash and $400 million in profit in the first quarter of '20 and the continued reduction of Baker Hughes dividends, which represented more than $250 million of cash flow in 2020. Second, on Aviation, where the impact of COVID has been most acutely felt and our level of uncertainty is still the greatest. Starting with the market, our plan assumes departures remain close to fourth quarter levels in the first quarter, and we begin to see the commercial aviation market recover in the second half. That said, we fully acknowledge the pace of the recovery remains dependent on containing the spread of the virus, effective inoculation programs and government's collaboration to encourage travel. At GE Aviation, we continue to expect the engine aftermarket recovery to lag departure trends across regions and fleets, particularly around quarantine requirements. And given that we generate a significant portion of our cash in commercial services, the recovery of the aftermarket remains critical. So our full year plan assumes Aviation revenue is flat to up year-over-year. And as a reminder, since the full effect of the virus was not felt until late in the first quarter of last year, we will be lapping a tough comp. Looking across our other segments, In power, we anticipate continued progress at Gas Power, with some offset in Power portfolio as we exit new build coal. Overall, we expect equipment revenue will be down, driven by our narrower scope with less turnkey volume. We're also planning for growth in our higher-margin services revenue. In Renewables, we're focused on improving operational execution and driving structural cost out. This will help us expand margins and improve cash. At Healthcare, we expect continued strength in Healthcare Systems as our new products and commercial leverage drive growth and PDx to recover. While we expect cash conversion to remain solid, it will be lower than 2020. And in capital, we expect earnings to be better. At each business, we're further accelerating cash performance and cost management with restructuring remaining elevated. So in aggregate, we have a positive trajectory going into 2021, despite areas of volatility and the continued challenges in Aviation. We're focused on delivering on our commitments, and I'm confident that our continued efforts will build a stronger and more focused GE. Turning to Slide 10. As we all know, 2020 was a year like none other. I'm truly proud of the GE team and their remarkable resilience. I hope you can see that in the face of great uncertainty, we continue to strengthen our businesses and deliver for our customers. And as we move through the second half, our businesses had a strong free cash flow finish to what was a challenging year. Momentum is growing across our businesses. We've continued to evolve our culture by embracing lean while preserving the strengths that have defined GE throughout its history. And I'm excited about the opportunities that lie ahead, how we will continue to lead the energy transition, help our customers deliver precision health and define the future of flight. As our multiyear transformation accelerates, we'll unlock upside potential with better cash generation, profit and growth. And ultimately, we expect that our industrial businesses over time should generate high single-digit free cash flow margins, while rising to the challenge of building a world that works. With that, Steve, let's go to questions.
A - Steve Winoker :
Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts again and ask 1 question so we can get to as many people as possible. Brandon, can you please open the line?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And from JPMorgan, we have Steve Tusa.
Steve Tusa :
Congrats on the strong finish on cash. Just curious on this GE Capital change. When did that start? And is there any impact on kind of working capital trends. I'm just kind of trying to figure out how -- you mentioned that the transactions remain on kind of an arm's length basis. But how does this kind of change that -- the dynamic around working capital at all?
Larry Culp :
Steve, just for clarity, you mean the change in how we account for it on an equity basis that we just announced today?
Steve Tusa :
Yes.
Larry Culp :
Okay.
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Okay, yes. Well, that is really to sort of simplify the way we show how GE Industrial is performing and how GE Capital is performing. That's the only change that we do there. I would say, though, that looking at the reporting changes that we have done in the quarter or at year-end, there are a couple of significant ones. And the most significant is really the restructuring recast in moving responsibility for not only the sort of execution, but also the cost as well as the benefit to the businesses. So I would say that's the biggest, most important one. And also, when we're talking about the working capital definition and the broadening working capital definition, that is really to more align with how we really run the business internally and operationally to drive improvements in working capital to show that also in the external reporting and the classified balance sheet really goes with that. That was on R&D, right? You saw that as well, is really showing that as a standalone line to increase transparency and highlight that.
Steve Tusa:
Just a follow-up, will you be growing assets at GE Capital on a core basis outside of insurance in 2021?
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
No, we're planning to keep that flat.
Operator:
From Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe.
Nigel Coe :
Just want to dig into your account outlook for 2021. At the midpoint, $3.5 billion, you'd be converting over 100% on your adjusted earnings outlook. So just wondering just in terms of forward strokes, what are you seeing in terms of working capital benefits, progress collections? Any detail there would be helpful.
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
So why don't I -- to your point there, why don't I sort of explain how we walk to the midpoint of the guide. So we're guiding for $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion of free cash flow in '21 with the midpoint there of $3.5 billion, right? So you will have to start by re-baselining the numbers from 2020. So you take out the BioPharma, disposition BioPharma and the Healthcare COVID demand, and that really gets you to roughly zero as a starting point. And then I would say you have cash earnings, it's about 1/3, that gets you to the midpoint of our range, with all the businesses planning for structural cost out, and here, we have both the normal course of strengthening the business, that's the business are on, but also the carryover from the COVID 2020 actions. And on top of that, also the low single-digit organic growth that we're talking to, right, primarily in Healthcare, Renewables and Aviation. The remaining 2/3 are driven by networking capital improvements, it's including the factoring tailwind that we talked about. And it's partially offset by other items such as the non-repeat of military in Aviation that we've called out as well as higher AD&A payments from higher aircraft deliveries really pushed out.
Larry Culp:
And Nigel, I would just add that I think what you see coursing through both the cash earnings and frankly, the working capital improvement, are both the improvements that we're trying to drive commercially with respect to just better upfront opportunity identification, better underwriting, pricing terms and the like, all the way through that upfront cycle, but also operationally, right? Be it in terms of cost, be it quality and delivery, that's helping us both in the income statement, but also, obviously, on the balance sheet. And I think when you look at the fourth quarter numbers, you see some encouraging evidence that while it's still early innings for us with respect to the lean transformation, we're seeing some nice results. And that will just feed on itself, that will build momentum and that is something that we're looking forward to contributing in that bridge into the '21 numbers.
Operator:
From Vertical Research, we have Jeff Sprague.
Jeff Sprague:
Just a kind of a 2-part question, if I could. Just share if you could, a little bit of the restructuring variance embedded in what you just told us on cash flow? And then also, Carolina, just picking up from what you said, if 1/3 of the earnings -- 1/3 of the cash flow is from earnings next year, that would kind of imply your underlying conversion is 65%, 70% or so. Is that what your underlying free cash flow conversion should be once we kind of normalize out of this thing?
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Okay. So we'll start with the first question, then on restructuring. So we have the recast, right, that we now include basically with moving the responsibility out into the segments, and we're also including it in the EPS, and therefore, in the recast. So if you look at the quarter, for example, you have $0.02 of effect of that on our numbers. So from -- we go from 8 to 10 and 5 for the full year. And if we look at the restructuring, we -- basically, we delivered on the $2 billion of cost that we committed to, but also the $3 billion of cash as we promised. And you do have a carryover effect of that going into 2021. It's about $500 million that will then flow into the numbers and improve the earnings next year.
Operator:
From UBS, we have Markus Mittermaier.
Markus Mittermaier :
If I could maybe double click specifically on the Power free cash flow guidance. So it seems that you are clearly about a year ahead of targets here on fixed cost, but on the cash trajectory you're guiding flat next year. Can you maybe just double-click here, particularly on 12% down on the Gas Power services side, how much -- sorry, 12% down on the fixed cost side, but on the Gas Power side, you're down on the -- on services, but should we assume that there's no catch up on that side next year? And specifically on steam, and the exit of new build coal, is there something that in that fixed cost base you can address going forward? And how should we then think about that maybe over the medium term, one is flat, how do you think about it over the medium term?
Larry Culp :
Markus, let me take a swing at that. I think you have the basic architecture in hand. The segment will be flat, but it really masks 2 underlying dynamics, right? You're spot on with respect to the improvement at Gas Power, I don't think we could be more pleased with the progress the team is making there. Clearly a competitive market, no question. But in terms of controlling what we can control, both again, the better underwriting upfront with respect to equipment, the continued market acceptance of the HA, all of that, I think, is in our favor. Services has been a challenge. We've talked about that, I think, through the course of 2020. And a little bit of light there relative to the order book in the fourth quarter. But I think we really know the onus is on us to continue to drive better performance in all aspects of the service portfolio there, be it CSA's transaction and upgrades. Upgrades was particularly pressured for us in '20. We know CSAs is a function of utilization a little bit better. So I think when you put all of that commercial and operational activity on top of the restructuring, where we've taken $1 billion of cost out at Gas Power, you get the early arrival of that positive free cash performance in '20 as opposed to '21. And we really move from here with a team that I think has proven that we can control the controllable and deliver better results with this book of business. I think when you talk about Power portfolio, you put your finger on steam, we're going to be restructuring as we exit coal, new build coal. That is a significant undertaking. It is early in that effort, and that will be a cash pull on us in '21 and probably to a lesser degree, in '22 as we execute on that. So when you put it all together, as you saw on the slide in the appendix, it will be roughly flat in '21. We'll be looking to drive gas as best we can, but we need to see the new coal exit through, and we'll do that as thoroughly and as thoughtfully as we can.
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Yes. And just a comment on Gas Power specifically because we've talked a lot about the restructuring with the COVID-related restructuring, but it's really an achievement from the Gas Power team, with Scott and team. So achieving positive cash flow in 2020, a year ahead of plan, really basing on what Larry talked about, almost $1 billion of fixed cost out in the last 2 years. And then also basically, I would say, rebalancing our relationship with our partners and suppliers and significantly structurally increasing DPO as well as significant strengthening the processes that we still on DSOs and how we both bill, collect, including over dues, that's really gotten us to a positive cash flow already in 2020. So strong achievement there.
Larry Culp :
And just to come back, just to your second part of your question about the question of whether that number that you calculated for this year is an ongoing number or not. Carolina, why don't you take a minute to come back on that in terms of free cash flow conversion longer term?
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Yes. When we look at free cash flow conversion longer term, we still -- we need to acknowledge that if we look at the earnings guidance also for next year, we still have elevated levels of restructuring, and we have elevated levels of pension and legal and so on. So there is still significant room to improve our earnings and then also the structural process improvements that we are driving through the business on the working capital. So we'll see a healthy cash conversion. But will take a little bit longer than next year.
Operator:
And from Bank of America, we have Andrew Obin.
Andrew Obin :
On Aviation, one of the questions we're getting is that I think plane retirements this year have been below average because I think airlines did not really go bankrupt. But how do you see -- one of the questions we get is sort of plane retirements and usable service materials availability into '21, how do you account for this in your forecast for -- your baseline forecast for Aviation in '21?
Larry Culp :
Andrew, you're exactly right. I mean the way we look at retirements in '20 just interestingly compared to '19, we actually saw fewer aircraft retire last year than we did the year before. But I think we're going to see that uptick in '21 in all likelihood here in the back half as volumes return and the deliveries at both of the major airframers pickup. So we're assuming that we will see that retirement transition, and at the same time, while there's been a little bit of a bid-ask spread with respect to departing out some of those planes, we're anticipating that we'll see a little bit more of that USM effect as we get into the second half at a time when we should see a return to volume activity. I think people need to appreciate that, that USM cuts both ways for us. We're -- we've been a major user of USM given the nature of our CSA obligations over time. So it will take a little while, I think, for that market to begin to really kick in. There is a lag, of course, from the time a plane is retired to the time that we would see it in the U.S. end market. But I think as we look out over the next several years, again, not trying today to pen a particular time in which we see a return to normal volume activities. From our perspective, we anticipate deliveries to outpace retirements, and that will be a net effect positive for us at Aviation. The other dynamic worth noting there, of course, is when we look at the dynamics for our fleet today, when we highlight the fact we've got a very young fleet, we're really -- what we really mean by that is we've got a little over half of the CFM56, 5B and 7B fleet, they haven't seen their first shop visit, right? So they're still early in their life cycle, 3 quarters of that same fleet have yet to see their second shop visit. So we'll typically see three during the course of a normal useful life. Our major economics happen in and around the first and second. So as these planes come back online, that green time is used, demand puts additional pressures on the fleets that -- those are the catalysts that we're really watching for relative to the beginning of the recovery and the return to, let's just say, '19 levels in our commercial aftermarket business there in Aviation.
Operator:
From Melius, we have Scott Davis.
Scott Davis :
I was hoping a little bit of a nitpicky question, but what's left in corporate that you guys plan on parsing out to the businesses if you can be somewhat specific. I mean, is there still R&D that's done at a central level? Or is everything being kind of built out already? I'll just leave it there.
Larry Culp :
Yes. Well, there are a couple of things in place, Scott, and I'd rather talk about that internally before we talk about it externally. But in effect, what you've seen in the last couple of years, really is not only the reduction of the core through absolute reductions, but also the movement of a number of the traditional corporate functions that had been at the center in some form out into the businesses. There is still a fair bit of activity. You're referencing there, specifically the global research center where we have a shared facility. That's really not part in a major way of that corporate net number that you see there, right? The businesses are paying their way by and large in that regard. Also, keep in mind, we've got a number of P&Ls in what we call corporate, principally the digital business, our $1 billion software business. Some of those businesses are more independent than of the portfolio. Others are operationally linked. So we'll continue to work to improve those businesses. And if there are situations where they can work more closely or better with the businesses under a different roof, we'll do that. But I think we'll continue to look for opportunities, but they will be on balance, more modest in scale and scope than what you've seen in the last couple of years.
Operator:
From RBC Capital markets, we have Deane Dray.
Deane Dray :
A couple of questions on Aviation. It was announced last week, one of the major airlines said they were restarting deferred engine overhauls. And just would like to hear how you expect to flex Aviation capacity back up to meet this normalized demand? And then any color on the supply chain challenges you mentioned in Aviation?
Larry Culp :
Sure. Well, Deane, it's probably, probably most helpful to just frame kind of what we did and where we are, right? We didn't bring that activity level down to zero. We try to resize it in a way that embrace this harsh, unfortunate near-term reality, but gave us a little bit of room just because -- back to Andrew's question, a number of dynamics that are hard to know in the short-term with absolute certainty, be it the retirement dynamic, how fleets are going to manage green time just even in the short-term, how folks are going to flex around the COVID effects as we saw in July and August and then in the other direction here in the first quarter. So as an operational matter, I think what John, Russell and the team are prepared for is a number of scenarios where when we see that recovery, we'll leverage some of the, if you will, the excess cost that is still there. Because again, we didn't take it to the bone, but also, we have -- we've laid in place plans that will give us an opportunity to ramp back effectively from a safety, from a quality, from an on-time delivery perspective, but also to have the right cost structure along the way. But we will be dealing with limits, right, in terms of our shop visit capacity in a particular window. And then that's part of the conversation we're already having with customers as they begin to think about the second half of '21. They want to make sure that they have their fleet in tiptop ready to go condition. So a lot that we're working through there. Clearly, our supply chain has been through a roller coaster right there along with us. I mean it was a year ago, I mean, literally, right now, when we're talking about not only continued volume ramps, but a new introduction, clearly at Boeing, with the MAX. And then literally weeks later, we're talking about slamming on the brakes. Part of what you saw in the fourth quarter is a little bit better inventory performance because the lead times and the cycle times in Aviation tend to be longer than they are in some of the other businesses. But we are working as closely as we can with the supply base to help them do what we're doing, and that is worked through the near-term here, where we have these volume pressures, but also be ready for, again, a number of scenarios by which we see a return toward more normal volumes.
Operator:
From Morgan Stanley, we have Josh Pokrzywinski.
Josh Pokrzywinski :
Just on Aviation, maybe a 2-part question. But Larry, you mentioned and expecting a lag in terms of the recovery in your shop visits versus what the market traffic is, it doesn't look like it's happening today, but I get that's the phenomenon that develops over time. Just given so much of the free cash flow performance at the corporate level is working capital and not earnings, I mean how much of the range is really dependent on Aviation as a market because it doesn't seem like there's a ton of volatility or expectation in the forecast that in Aviation core performance is really driving that. And maybe that's a lag or something else, but am I interpreting that right?
Larry Culp :
Josh, I would say that if we -- Carolina walked you through kind of the walk to the midpoint as if GE was a business as a whole. The slide in the back of the earnings presentation, where we look at cash flow by business, I think it's really meant to capture the fact that the bulk of the range is going to be made up by what happens at Aviation, and that will largely be a function of what happens in the market, particularly the aftermarket. There's a bit of renewables in the range there as well. But I think what we've seen through the course of 2020 is that, fortunately, when all was said and done, our Power businesses were able to work their way through the pressure and the uncertainty. We had a number of orders at Renewables that came in at the end of the year, and we didn't know they were going to be there until they were there. And fortunately, they were. But clearly, this will be a year of climate broadly, and that will be a good thing for our Renewables business. And I think Healthcare, while we won't convert at the exceptionally high levels the team did and credit to them in the back half of last year, Healthcare, I think we've got good line of sight on. So when you look at that range, I think the bulk of it, again, is really a function of Aviation. I like the way we're executing, we can always do better. But that said, it will really be a function of what happens in the end of the market. And I think what we try to do here is provide a framework that isn't assuming some sort of out of the consensus early spike recovery in Aviation, that would be in a word foolish.
Operator:
From Goldman Sachs, we have Joe Ritchie.
Joe Ritchie :
So I'm going to apologize upfront for the 2-part question, but I wanted to first ask a question to Carolina. To maybe just bridge us a little bit given the reporting changes, bridge the EPS guide for 2021 versus what you reported in 2020? And then my second question for Larry. Just from a portfolio perspective, arguably, there's never been a better time to divest assets that you don't want longer term. How are you thinking about that for 2021?
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
So let me start with the EPS question, it is really focusing in on the restructuring, right? So I commented in the beginning that we have restructuring in the EPS now and that the effect of that for the full year is around $0.05. We do expect to have, I would say, roughly the same level of restructuring in 2021, right? So you don't have an effect from elevated or changed restructuring levels when you compare '20 to '21, when we do the work on the EPS.
Larry Culp :
I would say with respect to portfolio evolution and capital allocation, Joe, I take your point relative to the market dynamics, it's -- they are remarkable. But that said, I don't think any of our businesses are close to optimizing their underlying performance, and again, clearly pressure and some uncertainty here in the very short-term, particularly around Aviation. But I think what we want to do in '21 is build on the momentum that we think we clearly demonstrated last year, continue to pursue our strategic intent across the 3 major areas that we've talked about. And over time, we're going to be open to ways to deliver value, maximize value at GE. But we still have a lot to do, still a lot in front of us. And I think that's the way at the end of the day that we will do right by shareholders, customers and other stakeholders.
Operator:
From Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell.
Julian Mitchell :
Maybe just the first question around -- or my only question really around the outlook for Power portfolio, Larry. It seems like looking at the slides, that's one of the few areas where the cash performance remains very, very difficult in 2021. Maybe just help us understand the moving pieces within that. And you assume that by the time you get to the end of this year, you've really sort of cleaned the deck and those businesses have a shorter positive cash flow in '22.
Larry Culp :
Yes. I would say that -- I think we talked a little earlier about the makeup, encouraged by what we saw in 2020 at power conversion. It's losing less money is different than making good returns, but you've got to work your way through that. And the power conversion business is doing that. Our nuclear business is smaller, sub-billion size, but fundamentally stable. The action, to your question, Julian, really centers on the steam business. And again, exiting the new build coal business, which has largely a European base is going to be a multiyear effort. We're in the very early stages of that. So that's really the primary cash pull on Power portfolio, and I would say, in the segment in '21. And given the way that plan will inevitably play out, we'll be talking about this at least in the first part of '22 as well. But I think we've got our arms around that. Again, it will -- all of that will mask a lot of the momentum that Scott and the team have built. But we'll keep you posted. It is what it is. But when we get to the other side, I think that segment is going to be a much better contributor for us.
Operator:
And that's all the time we have. At this point, we will now turn it back to Steve Winoker for closing remarks.
Steve Winoker :
Thanks, everybody. I'm going to actually -- I'd like to come back to a question that was raised earlier on the call about our reporting GE Capital and equity method investment within the GE Industrial column of our financial statements. And I'd like to be clear, I think we'd all like to be clear that it has no impact whatsoever on working capital or any individual transactions. It was done simply to simplify reporting and make that column more reflective of GE Industrial earnings as investors have been requesting. So I want there to be no ambiguity on that front whatsoever. Thanks, everybody, for participating. We look forward to your follow-up calls and wishing you a good start to 2021.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Third Quarter 2020 General Electric Company Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon and I'll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions]. Please note this conference is being recorded. And I will now turn it over to Steve Winoker. You may begin, sir.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Brandon. Good morning and welcome to GE's third quarter 2020 earnings call. I'm joined by our Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Before we start, I'd like to remind you that the press release and presentation are available on our website. Note that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, these elements can change as the world changes. With that, I'll hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thank you. Good to be here with you and Carolina in the same room for an earnings call for the very first time. Good morning, everyone. I'm encouraged by our progress in the third quarter. Despite the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on our year-to-date results, we're building momentum across GE. And our top-line remains pressured, but our actions are driving an improved profitability and cash performance. In the quarter, Industrial revenue was down 12% organically. This was largely driven by aviation and healthcare, renewables and power were all up. Industrial margin was 5.6%, an organic contraction of 310 basis points year-over-year. Notably, all segments returned to positive territory for the first time in two years. Adjusted EPS was $0.06 down year-over-year but up sequentially, and Industrial free cash flow came in at a positive $500 million. Our sequential improvement was largely driven by better working capital and earnings. While positive and a good sign, we have plenty more work to do here. Let me focus on orders down 28% organically for a moment. Over 75% of this pressure was driven by aviation, as well as part of healthcare, the places it hurt us by the pandemic. In power and renewables some pressure results from our actions to be more selective in our commercial activities, and some is timing, where we should see stronger conversion in the fourth quarter. Despite this, our backlog remains a real strength at $384 billion. 80% is in services where we enjoy healthy margin. And while services are hurting in the near-term, they have a long multi-year time horizon and keep us close to our customers. By business, at Aviation and GECAS, we're managing these businesses aggressively and saw sequential improvement. Aviation is on track to deliver more than $1 billion of cost and $2 billion of cash action this year. In Healthcare, we delivered strong margin and cash performance. While pandemic-related demand has moderated, we saw scan data and PDx orders approach pre-pandemic level. We continue to see CapEx pressure in private healthcare markets and we're planning cautiously there. As you’ll recall, Power and Renewables were our turnaround story at started the year, improved operational discipline and cost out actions are starting to show. In the quarter, both delivered solid organic margin expansion, Power more than 700 basis points, Renewables more than 200 basis points. So clearly, our markets are by and large stabilizing. But to underscore the obvious, stability is not yet recovery. We still acknowledge that the full duration, magnitude and pace of this pandemic across our end markets, operations and supply chain is uncertain. That said, based on what we see today, and the actions we've taken, we expect fourth quarter Industrial free cash flow of at least $2.5 billion with positive contributions from all segments. But how much more? Really depends on how Aviation fares through the quarter. And importantly, the momentum we're building should help us deliver positive Industrial free cash flow in 2021. Moving to Slide 3. From day one we've known this would be a game of inches. This is still true today. We're focused on three areas where we're making real progress. First, we're continuing to strengthen the businesses. As a team, we've been engaged on what matters most, the safety of our employees, taking care of our customers and communities and accelerating our lean transformation. At the same time, we're focused on what we can control in the near-term, driving better operational execution and further optimizing our cost structure. Our more than $2 billion of cost and $3 billion of cash actions started to play out in the quarter, now 75% complete with our decremental margins, for example, improving sequentially from 44% to 32%. Second, we're solidifying our financial position. Since the beginning of 2019 we’ve decreased debt by $25 billion. We've continued to maintain strong liquidity and flexibility, exiting the third quarter with $39 billion of cash. Carolina will provide more details in a moment. And third, we're driving long-term profitable growth even in the current environment. Lien continues to be the strongest common denominator across GE and this is what builds the foundation for sustainable growth. We're picking up the pace, deploying lean to drive safety, quality, delivery and cost improvement in terms of both productivity and cash generation. For example, this quarter we held our second lean week event virtually at Gas Power. With more than 1,000 participants across 10 countries in function, we identified dozen of delivery and cost improvement opportunities. We're also continuing our efforts to run GE differently, moving the center of gravity closer to where the action is. We talk about GE as four industrial segments, but we drive operational improvement at much deeper levels within the organization. You'll recall that we split Gas Power in Power Portfolio within the Power segment, this is working well for us. We're now simplifying other segments in similar ways to enhance visibility, and raise accountability. For example, we're changing the way we manage P&Ls within Healthcare Systems, ranging from LCS to MR to ultrasound, where we are integrating production and product management to improve delivery. Similarly, we're now transitioning grade from one to six operating P&Ls. Importantly, this is not only a cost out initiative, but a way to ensure we're using the right processes, tools and resources to improve execution. This quarter, we held strategy reviews with each business, planning for the long-term. These discussions focus on how we put ourselves in the best possible footing to play offense, how we win with our customers and for our shareholders. What was evident is that our businesses are focusing or setting more impactful objectives designed to deliver profitable growth. Examples include ensuring our gas turbines remain competitive at the top of the power dispatch curve, as well as launching next-generation software platforms in our healthcare imaging businesses. The quality of our strategic thinking was much improved versus a year ago. Now, we have to execute. So let's get into the details on the COVID-19 dynamics at both GE Aviation and GECAS. On Slide 4, you'll see GE/CFM departures, which drives our service business much more so than RTKs. As a reminder, we track departures by region and by platform, daily. With the third quarter overlapping with much of the summer travel season in the Northern Hemisphere, we saw GE/CFM power departures generally improve. We've seen this plateau to down 40% in October versus our January baseline as we exit these typically higher traffic months. We expect the market recovery will continue to be correlated with departure trends across regions and fleets. China's departure levels are just below the January baseline. And we're watching load factors there carefully. The Americas have remained relatively flat through the quarter but it's shown some improvement in October versus July. In Europe, some improvement in July and August has reversed in September and October. In aggregate, the near term outlook remains quite fluid. And while there's been improvement from the April lows, we're now seeing stabilization at current levels. At GE Aviation, our military business remains resilient. But commercial aviation is clearly challenged. Under our new CEO John Slattery's leadership, we're progressing on the difficult actions to scale this business for the new market reality. Notably, these actions drove the sequential cash improvement in the quarter. Looking at these trends we're seeing through October commercial shipments and shop visits are still down 50% year-over-year. Services are critical to the recovery of aviation's, we generate much of our cash here, especially within narrow bodies which are more than 40% of our historical revenue. We typically have good line of sight into demand for about six weeks out at our internal jobs. But we have less visibility into external shop visits. We're working with our customers to forecast shop visits as utilization recovers, supporting our operations and supply chain. We made an important organizational move in Aviation Services, with Russell Stokes returning to Aviation as CEO of that business. Russell will lead our Aviation Services business in a new role integrating both our commercial and operations team. Shifting to GECAS, similar to Aviation, our performance continues to be correlated with the market. As we said last quarter 80% of our customers have requested deferral, and we've approved about 60% of those. At the end of the third quarter, this deferral balance was approximately $400 million. And importantly, we collected about 85% of what we've invoiced thus far. We ended the quarter with 29 aircraft on the ground, up 17 -- up from 17 in the second quarter out of a fleet of more than 950. We're actively working customer-by-customer through restructurings, and in some cases, repossession. And our commercial team is remarketing aircraft. We're also taking action to navigate through this volatility. Let me share with you two examples. We announced Kalitta Air to operate a 37 aircraft fleet as the launch operator on our 777 passenger to freighter cargo conversion program, which features the GE90 powered largest ever twin engine freighter. We’ve partnered before and we're teaming up again this time with PIMCO to launch a $3 billion venture that provides airlines with financing to help upgrade their fleets at a critical time. This essentially also enables us to acquire new and young, fuel efficient aircrafts that we can continue providing our customers with the aircraft they need. We continue to plan for a steep market decline through the fourth quarter, and a likely multi-year recovery. Long-term the aviation market has solid fundamentals, and we're committed to a safe return to flight post-COVID. We're working with our customers and industry partners to ensure engineering and operational readiness. With that, Carolina will provide further insights on the quarter.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks, Larry. Diving into the quarter. Our results are better sequentially, but remain challenged overall. This is particularly true in Aviation, our segment hit hardest by the pandemic. So the recovery and path forward would look and feel different with each business, market conditions are stabilizing. We're also driving impact with our cost out actions. Year-to-date, we've reduced headcount by more than 15,000 or 8%. And we expect to reach about 20,000 or 10% by year-end, and we're seeing operational improvement, especially in Power and Renewables. Looking at our consolidated results, which I'll speak to on an organic basis. Orders were down 28%. On the services front, Aviation remains the most pressured while Power and Healthcare were each flat. Backlog was relatively flat in year-over-year and sequentially with puts and takes between segments. Profitability in our backlog remains attractive as the majority is in services. Industrial revenue was also down but to a lesser extent in orders down 12%. Despite the difficult environment, all segments delivered revenue growth, except Aviation. And all Industrial segments delivered positive profit in the quarter. Our countermeasures continue to accumulate with a more immediate effect in Healthcare, where the margins expanded 260 basis points. In our longer cycle businesses, results improved after second quarter lows, but at more measured rate. Turning to EPS. Let me highlight three differences between continuing and adjusted. On restructuring, we spent 200 million in the quarter. For 2020, we still expect to spend more on restructuring versus prior year, with most of the benefits accruing in '21. We also reserved $100 million for legacy SEC matters. And on the impairment charge, this was related to our recent decision to exit the new build coal power market within Steam. Excluding these items as well as gains, mark-to-markets and non-operating benefits, adjusted EPS was a positive $0.06. Turning to cash. We generated $500 million of Industrial free cash flow in the third quarter. Excluding BioPharma results, it’s $200 million improvement year-over-year. Notably, Healthcare delivered strong cash flow conversion due to improved inventory turns, better collections and reduced CapEx. At a high level, cash flow benefited from positive earnings plus D&A across all segments and all businesses were up sequentially. We’ve seen modest improvement in working capital driven by management actions and what I'll call stabilizing volume levels, particularly in payables, where we used $600 million of cash on working capital. This is roughly $1 billion better sequentially than year-over-year. Looking at the dynamics. For receivables, we saw higher billings. This is typical in our second half and even more true this year due to the broader economic environment. However, there are clear signs of improvement due to better daily management, such as company past dues declining 3 points sequentially and sequential improvement in DSO. Inventory was a source of cash. As we apply lean here, we expect it will be a greater source in the future. On my recent trip to Renewables, visiting onshore wind, I’ve known how this has transitioned multiple warehouses to a pool-based business. This reduced service inventory by $50 million and counting. Payables stabilized from prior quarters as we cleared the payment cycle of pre-pandemic material purchases. As sales volumes recover, we expect further benefits here. Progress was a use of cash as outflows from shipments outpaced inflows from new orders and milestone payments. This was primarily driven by Renewables and Aviation. Contract assets were limited impact and other operating flows primarily driven by non-cash items in net earnings. This includes the mark-to-market impact from our Baker Hughes position and non-cash benefit costs. We're also carefully scrutinizing our CapEx spend, down $220 million in the third quarter versus prior year. Year-to-date, Industrial free cash flow is a negative of $3.8 billion. The drivers include lower earnings, ex-dispositions, payables related to the commercial aviation decline, progress due to higher deliveries and lower orders in Power and Renewables and reduced factoring. With our typical seasonality, we expect the fourth quarter to be our most significant quarter for Industrial free cash flow. As Larry said, we're targeting at least $2.5 billion. Sequential improvement will continue to come from earnings growth, reduced inventory and stabilizing progress. Taking a step back, building a path to sustainable cash flow rests largely on continuing to drive self-help across the businesses. We realized 75% of our cash actions to-date and the remainder is coming in the fourth quarter, and we're positioning Aviation to emerge stronger when the market recovers. Taking a broader view of working capital and looking for additional opportunities. Inventory, just over 2 times today is an area we can improve our consistency and performance. Lastly, we expect our runoff items and the level of reduction in factoring to decrease over the next few years. Factoring has decreased by close to $2 billion this year. Moving to Slide 7. We're making incremental progress on strengthening our balance sheet. Before our 2Q actions where we reduced near-term liquidity needs by $10.5 billion. We ended the quarter with $39 billion of total cash, $24 billion at GE and $15 billion at GE Capital. As you know, we're fully monetizing our remaining $5 billion stake in Baker Hughes over the next 3 years. This month, we received the first set proceeds of $400 million. In addition, we're reducing debt, and we're evaluating liability management opportunities. Year-to-date, we reduced GE debt by $8.1 billion, including $500 million in the quarter related to the wind down of our commercial paper program. It's important to note that in addition to paying down debt, we've significantly reduced our reliance on intra-quarter borrowing. Our industrial commercial paper program peaked at $20 billion intra-quarter in '17 versus today's balance of zero. Year-to-date, we've paid down GE Capital debt of $3.6 billion, $2.3 billion in the quarter. As previously stated, we expect to achieve our leverage targets over time due to the impact of COVID-19 and our financial policy goals remain unchanged. So moving to our segments, which I'll also speak to on an organic basis. Aviation, we're encouraged by our sequential improvements evidenced by positive margins despite the challenging market conditions already mentioned. Orders were down more than 50%. We saw declines of roughly 60% in both commercial engines and commercial services. Our backlog stands at $262 billion, up 4% year-over-year. Since the second quarter, we added to our CSA and transactional services backlog while our equipment backlog was down $2 billion sequentially driven by lower orders and backlog conversion to sales. Cancellations slowed significantly this quarter. We saw about 100 LEAP-1B cancellations, much lower than the 800 or so in the second quarter. Significant, but for context, our ending backlog has nearly 10,000 LEAP-1A and 1B engines. Revenue was down nearly 40% year-over-year, but up 12% sequentially. Commercial engine revenue was down. We shipped 385 fewer engines for less than half of the prior year. This includes 283 less LEAP units. This is partly due to the 737 MAX grounding and slower production. Commercial services revenue was also down more than 55%. This was due to lower spare parts sales and shop business. Military revenue increased 7% driven by development sales and service volumes. We missed some engine shipments at the quarter end due to supply chain challenges. Segment margin returned to positive territory. Sequential improvement was driven by the cost actions and lower commercial services charges. This was partially offset by an impairment of roughly $100 million in the JV, in our [assistance] business, related to commercial market declines. Separately, our supply chain costs were about 30% lower sequentially. We still had approximately $120 million of excess costs due to lower production rates. Aviation has completed around 70% of the more than $1 billion of cost and $2 billion of cash actions. To-date, the business has realized close to $1 billion in cost savings. We completed further workforce reductions, bringing the year-to-date total to roughly 20%. These efforts have improved our decremental margins to 43% from 59% in the second quarter. Moving to Healthcare. We delivered solid results through better commercial and operational execution. In Healthcare Systems, order declines are moderating, particularly in public healthcare markets, where the governments are prioritizing investments in quality and access. Broadly, global scans have now approached the fourth quarter baseline. And we saw better sequential demand in imaging and ultrasound. With that backdrop, healthcare orders decreased 4%. In Healthcare Systems, orders declined 5%, we saw continued softness in imaging and ultrasound demand and significantly lower demand for pandemic-related products. In PDx, recovery continued, orders were down 2% versus 28% down in the second quarter. Global procedure volumes largely recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels with some variation by region. Healthcare revenue was up 10%. About $300 million of revenue was related to the delivery of the remaining ventilators ordered by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Excluding this, revenue was up 3%. HCS was up 12% or 4% excluding the HHS order. Strong execution against pandemic-related products [passed out] was partially offset by lower demand for products less correlated with COVID-19. PDx revenue was down 2%, a significant improvement sequentially. Segment margin was up 260 basis points. This was driven by higher volumes, improved cost productivity and SG&A reductions. Healthcare reduced headcount by roughly 600 this quarter. The team is executing well on cost reduction while prioritizing growth investments with R&D flat to prior year. Turning to Power. Our performance has been impacted by the timing of outages and the discretionary spending on upgrades during the pandemic, particularly in the Middle East. However, sequential improvement is driven by self-help actions and there's still significant opportunity for margin expansion. On the market, global electricity demand declined low-single-digits. However, gas-based power generation remained resilient, and GE gas turbine utilization was up mid-single-digits. Overall, orders were pressured. Equipment orders were down 35%, largely driven by Gas Power on lower HA orders. However, we saw a significant improvement of low orders in the second quarter, and we expect a strong pipeline leads to better equipment orders in the fourth quarter. Service orders are expected to remain challenged due to customer budget constraints and lower discretionary spend. We exited the quarter with lower backlog. Of note, Gas Power backlog was $65 billion, down $1.4 billion sequentially primarily on lower orders due in part to timing and deal selectivity. Revenue was up 3%. In Gas Power revenue was up 7%. Our equipment revenue was up double-digits, largely driven by our extended scope shipments. We shipped 11 gas turbines in the third quarter, and we're on track to deliver 45 to 50 heavy-duty gas turbines this year. Services revenue was down slightly, largely driven by continued decline in upgrades. We saw some stabilization with typical outage seasonality after the first half disruption. Based on what we see today, we are still targeting to complete roughly 95% of the outages originally planned for the year. Turning to Power Portfolio. Revenue was down 7%, largely driven by Steam equipment project timing. Segment margin turned positive after tough second quarter and expanded 760 basis points. This was primarily driven due to better equipment project execution and reduction of Gas Power fixed cost of 16%. We also saw margin expansion across all 3 Power Portfolio businesses with the strongest performance in power conversion. Across Power, we're advancing on our cost actions, reducing headcount by roughly 600 this quarter. Additionally, Gas Power is utilizing lean tools to enhance the availability of parts for outages. As a result, on-time delivery is almost 30 points better year-over-year. At Renewables, which has been the least impacted by the pandemic, we're encouraged by the team's progress. Onshore wind deliveries near record volume, offshore wind signed its first Haliade-X supply contract with a prototype now operating at 13 megawatts and our turnaround efforts at grid and hydro are continuing. Starting with the market. U.S. production tax credits continue to support onshore wind in North America. In offshore wind, we're building a robust deal pipeline to capture secular growth through the decade. Orders were down 18%. Remember that this can be a lumpy business. Onshore wind was down driven by tough comps to the 2019 PTC order volume and some North America repower orders shifting to the fourth quarter. Separately, there was a large 6-megawatt offshore wind order in 2019 that did not repeat. We expect strong onshore wind order growth in North America for the fourth quarter, and offshore wind should recognize its first order for Phase A of the Dogger Bank wind farm. That said, despite expecting strong fourth quarter order growth, we're focused on underwriting discipline and deal selectivity to drive improved margins and cash flow. Revenue was up 4% as onshore wind delivered nearly 1,500 new units and repower kits. It's up 5% year-over-year and 24% sequentially. Delivering on such significant volume requires strong partnerships with our customers and daily management to ensure safety and site readiness. We also delivered our first Cypress unit and have more than 700 units in backlog. Segment margin was positive, with operational improvements taking hold. Margin expanded by 230 basis points driven by cost productivity, better pricing and volume in onshore wind North America. This quarter, we reduced headcount by roughly 900. While we're encouraged by the positive margin, it's early, and there's significant opportunity to improve further. At GE Capital, we recently announced that Jen VanBelle, currently our Treasurer will take on an expanded role as CEO here. I'm excited to continue working closely with Jen in her new capacity. Looking at the quarter, we ended with $101 billion of assets, excluding liquidity. Sequentially, this was flat. Continuing operations generated an adjusted net loss of $61 million. At GECAS, we generated a loss of $38 million. You’ll recall that in the second quarter GECAS completed an accelerated impairment review of the riskiest part of the lease book, about 20% of the total. This quarter, GECAS conducted their annual portfolio impairment review which incorporates third-party appraisal data and uplift to cash flow assumptions for the entire portfolio. This resulted in a pre-tax equipment lease impairment of $163 million. Year-to-date, GECAS has now booked impairments of approximately $500 million against our $29 billion equipment lease portfolio. Going forward, we'll continue to monitor credit risk. We acknowledge that further market deterioration could result in additional airline failures over and above those that we have considered in our reviews. Turning to insurance. We generated positive earnings of $57 million. The financial markets continue to recover, increasing the unrealized gains in our investment securities portfolio and positive mark-to-market adjustments and realized gains. We conducted the annual premium deficiency test, also known as the loss recognition test, this quarter. This has resulted in a positive margin of just under 2% of the current reserve. So not impacting earnings. Slightly favorable claims experienced and premium rate increases more than offset the discount rate headwind. Our rebuilt claims curve from 2017 continue to hold. And as a reminder, we'll complete our annual statutory cash flow test for safety in the first quarter of '21. As it relates to the pandemic, we've continued to see trends in our claims data. On the LTC block, we're seeing both a reduction in new claims and higher terminations. In our life business, we're seeing higher claims due to mortality. In our structured settlement block, we're also seeing higher mortality. At GE Capital, we ended the third quarter with 4:1 times debt-to-equity. We remain committed to achieving a debt-to-equity ratio of less than 4 over time. As noted, in the fourth quarter, GE will provide parent funding to GE Capital of approximately $2 billion, in line with the required annual insurance statutory funding for 2020. Parent support levels are determined by looking across various matrices, including our internal economic capital framework. In '21, we expect an additional contribution from GE to GE Capital to meet our existing insurance statutory funding requirements of approximately $2 billion. In light of the uncertain environment, further contributions depend on the GE Capital's performance, including GECAS operations and insurance safety results. At Corporate, adjusted costs were down 9%, functional cost and operations improved. GE Digital continues to optimize its cost structure, now close to breakeven. Corporate continued to reduce headcount, down 400 sequentially and 10% year-to-date. EHS costs and other costs were up, and we expect higher costs in the fourth quarter primarily driven by the timing of the EHS activity. To wrap up with a final thought, I'm often asked what was my biggest surprise coming to GE. One that comes to mind is the grip and the commitment of my finance team. So we have a lot to work with and a lot to do. Let me share how we are partnering with the businesses to drive better margin expansion and cash flow generation. First, we're becoming more operational. We're prioritizing fewer important KPIs to help deliver better performance. Examples include on-time deliveries as well as product and project costs. We're also changing how we manage these KPIs at the right level, closer to where the business is run. And we're moving toward [active] through daily management, wherever possible. Second, we're deepening our focus on cash flow. This includes working capital and the timing of billings and collections. In too many quarters, a significant amount of our cash is collected in the last month or even last week of the quarter. And we're using lean and automation to improve strength, quality and scale. In our Digital business, for example, over the last year, we've reduced the closing process by [50%]. Although we're early in this journey, especially on working capital improvement, I'm encouraged by the process and the progress we're making. Larry, back to you.
Larry Culp :
Carolina, thank you. Our transformation of GE is accelerating. In September, we introduced a new purpose statement for the company. We arrive to the challenge of building a world that works. This is more true than ever as we continue to deliver for our customers and tackle the world's biggest challenges, from precision health to the safe return to flight to the energy transition. Climate change is undoubtedly a massive challenge and one where the technology advancements we deliver for our customers will play an important role. We've also been reducing greenhouse gas emissions from our own facilities since 2004, and we met our most recent goal for 2020 early, reducing our emission by 21%. Now we're strengthening our sustainability pledge by committing to be carbon neutral in our facilities and operations by 2030. Our strategy to achieve this is threefold
Steve Winoker :
Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts again and ask just 1 question so we can get to as many people as possible. Brandon, can you please open the line?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And from RBC Capital Markets, we have Deane Dray. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray :
Appreciate all the detail here. Since free cash flow is the primary operating metric that we're focused on. I'd love to hear from Carolina a bit more about the goals on inventory. You mentioned 2 turns. What's the target? How much more can you go? And then maybe, Larry, you can contribute on the thoughts on rationalizing CapEx. I know there are trade-offs that you're making every day here in terms of not wanting to compromise growth opportunities coming out. But where does the CapEx stand in that thought here?
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Thanks, Deane. So let me start then on the working capital. I think to better understand working capital, you sort of have to take a step back. So I try to look at it for the full year so far and then I'll end with the opportunities because it's sort of 1 dose with the other. So it's a big focus area for us. And to start with, we have a lot more to do. I mean, there are several large moving pieces in our cash flow, mostly around Aviation and Renewables. So if we start with receivables, our year-to-date cash flow is actually impacted by 2 billion lower reduced factoring alone, right? So we've used 5.1 billion so far and $2 billion of that is really reducing factoring. Some of the lower volume, some was our decision. And underlying that, we are making progress on the DSO, especially in Power, Renewables and Healthcare, but we have seen pressure in Aviation. But I do see there's a big opportunity also going forward in improving our underlying DSOs. I would say, in all areas. And one good example is how gas is working. With Scott and the team improved both overdues, and they have significantly reduced their [daily associate] more than 10 days basically. So there's more to come there in all areas. And then, of course, it will be balanced between the growing sales and also factoring. Moving to inventory. I would say at this point of the year, typically, our inventory is a significant working capital drag, right, because we build inventory for the first 3 quarters and then we deliver a lot in the fourth quarter. So this year, basically, we started the year by building the first quarter, then COVID hitting and then working really hard to take inventory down. And that's what we continue to do. And it's not that easy to take down inventory fast in a long-cycle business. So I said that we have significant room to improve here. Our turns are 2, so we can significantly improve that. I would say all segments can improve here. And Aviation is working to significantly reduce the size also because of the new realities of the demand. So I would say lean will continue to play a big role in improvement. It's not a quick fix, but it's a big opportunity for us here. I would say the most significant working capital pressure so far is payable and especially in Aviation. I mean, simply put, we've been paying our suppliers for higher material inputs in the first half, while now significantly reducing the input in the second and the third quarter to reflect the lower demand, especially in Aviation. I mean the account has started to stabilize now, but I expect this to improve as we see the end markets improve. Lastly, we've seen a lot of pressure on progress so far this year, right? So cash flow from progress is really just a difference between collecting payments for new orders and milestones versus executing deliveries. And Renewables, as you heard me say, we've delivered record onshore wind volumes. So we burned progress faster than collections on new orders. And Power is also pressured. And of course, Aviation, considering the new significantly lower demand. So I would say focusing -- you have to do it business-by-business and piece-by-piece. The biggest opportunity, as it is now is in receivables and in inventory. And I would also add to that is improving linearity. So not only looking at it sort of end of quarter and end of year, but having a more stable view through the year. So a lot more to be done, a lot of possible improvements here.
Larry Culp:
Deane, I would just add on CapEx briefly. We don't want to ever be in a position where we're underinvesting in innovation. There I say, safety or quality. But that said, I think 1 of the beauties -- 1 of the benefits we'll get from a true lean transformation at GE, if we'll just have a, I think, a sharper, more critical eye with respect to how we think about capital more broadly, not only in terms of when we need capital, but then when we see a need, how do we go about it, right? Because there's so many -- I was in a facility just last week, for example, I won't name the business. I don't know who I'm talking about, where it was clear that as we were tackling a particular project in that business that I'm not sure we had the shortest leash on the team with respect to capital, right? We were looking at other measures of success. So as we implement that philosophy more broadly, I think we'll have an opportunity to spend less. On the other hand, of course, we're going to look for every opportunity we can to put money to work smartly around new products, around new technologies, let alone, enhancing safety and quality in our facilities and in our field operations.
Operator:
From JPMorgan, we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa :
Just a quick follow-up on that receivables comment. Note 4 seem to have a lot of activity on that front. You said that the factoring was a headwind in the quarter. Maybe it was a headwind in the year. Can you just maybe clarify that? And then also, the messaging in July was definitely not confident on positive free cash flow in the second half. And the messaging with regards to the options pricing suggested that there was also not much improvement through August. So I guess like what happened timing-wise in September that really kind of flipped the switch on that? Or was -- or was it just -- you guys were just incrementally cautious sitting there in kind of late July. I'm just kind of curious, you talked about linearity of cash flows through the quarter. And it just seems like this is kind of a big inflection here late in the quarter given some of those dynamics.
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Steve, why don't I start with the factoring? In the quarter, our factoring balance is slightly up, $8.1 billion versus $7.7 billion in the previous quarter and with penetration basically flat. But year-to-date, it's almost $2 billion decrease. And that's when you look at the working capital of $5 billion usage, $2 billion of that is decreasing factoring, and we expect to continue to do so.
Larry Culp :
Steve, I would say that what we've been dealing with, given the COVID dynamics, is a host of uncertainties with the passage of time, have become less so. I think our last public comments suggest that we thought the second half would be positive. We never talked about a specific number with respect to the third quarter. And again, given the progress on the $2 billion of cost actions, the $3 billion of cash actions, I think what was a very strong quarter on the part of our Healthcare business, and the lack of any further deterioration of note in Aviation, allowed us to put the quarter that you see here, the $500 million of free cash together. I mean I would just add, I think we're encouraged by the turnarounds at both Power and in Renewables. We came into the year knowing that 2020 was going to be an important year for both businesses to demonstrate traction in that regard. And whether you look at the sequential improvements, whether you look at the year-on-year margin expansion or the setup, particularly for our Gas Power business going into next year when we think we'll be cash flow positive, I just think there's a lot of progress in those businesses despite some of the timing dynamics that we've seen, particularly with respect to outage execution, again, more back half loaded than first half loaded. So it's a game of inches. We've never been in a more challenging environment. But I think as the year has played out, certainly, as the fall here has played out, we're, again, encouraged by what we see from the businesses broadly. But are taking little for granted.
Operator:
From Deutsche Bank, we have Nicole DeBlase. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase :
So maybe we can talk a little bit about inheritance taxes. That's part of the bridge from 2020 to 2021. Can you just maybe talk about an update as to where that stands? Sure.
Larry Culp :
Nicole, I think we used that phrase from the early days when I joined the company, just to describe some of the things, some of the legacy issues that we were wrestling with. But we don't talk about those dynamics the same way internally. And I think we need to start talking about them in the way that is more aligned with how we're running the business. So you've got a better sense of those things that we have control of versus those that are running off, right? We've talked previously about those headwinds decreasing from $4 billion last year to $2 billion next year and a host of issues like legal pension, supply chain, finance, recourse factoring and, of course, restructuring. I think as we come in here to the fourth quarter, I think we're doing better in 2020 than we thought. And we know next year's restructuring cash is going to be higher given the announcement around the new build coal exit and some of the additional Aviation actions. So I think the lift next year is going to be a little less than what we thought, but on balance over the 2 years in line. I think as we go forward, let's think about 3 things. One, restructuring, which we're going to continue to evaluate on expected returns. I think those are very much within our control. Carolina mentioned factoring, right? Better part of $2 billion year-to-date of a headwind from a factoring reduction. Those are actions that I think are largely within our control. And then the other items that should come down over time, whether it's some of the UK and Alstom-related pension dynamics, and some of the legal settlements that are a little harder to predict. But I think on balance, it's part of the setup for us to deliver positive free cash flow in '21.
Operator:
Next, we have from Goldman Sachs, Joe Ritchie. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie:
So guys, look, it's great to see the progress that you're making. Just across the entity and specifically on free cash flow. I know there's been a lot of focus there. But maybe just kind of focusing on the $2.5 billion number for the fourth quarter. Larry, your MO historically has been to be conservative when you set goal posts like this. And as you kind of think about the 4Q number, there's -- I'm trying to understand how much of it is within your control, whether it's your higher margin businesses, improving the cash restructuring actions that you have coming through? I'm just trying to understand exactly how much is already within your control versus what you need help with from the market to get to $2.5 billion plus in 4Q?
Larry Culp:
Sure. Joe, I appreciate that feedback on my MO. We're just trying to build and improve here at GE. But when we say at least 2.5 billion in the fourth, I think what we're saying is that, again, we're going to see the cash -- the cost and cash actions that we've talked about previously play through. I think we're going to see sequential improvement in profit in 3 of the 4 segments. I think renewables is likely to be more flattish in that regard, right? And as we get the $2 billion of cost fully implemented, that should play through and be a cash flow benefit.
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Yes. And I would add to that, the comment on working capital then. We have typical Q4 seasonality that holds this year as well, especially from Power and Renewables. And then we have our own management actions. So I see for the fourth quarter really benefits on the working capital, primarily coming from continued inventory reduction and a lift from payables as the volumes start to normalize, although on a lower levels. We expect to see sequentially improved progress collections or basically less of a drag, especially with Gas Power and Renewables, more than offsetting the Aviation pressure. I think on receivables, we have a headwind just because of the sort of Q4 sequential growth, but we continue our collections work. So that one will also depend a bit sort of collections versus factoring.
Larry Culp:
And Joe, I would just add that when you ask about the market, some of the things that are outside of our control, I'd really say we're going to look to do the best we can across the board. Probably have a little bit more variability or uncertainty at Aviation, right? Departures is an important measure for us. We'll see how that plays out. I think we mentioned in our prepared remarks, external shop businesses where we don't have as much visibility compared to what we have with respect to our own activity. Shipments out of the airframers, triggers our AD&A obligations, our working capital dynamic there that could go against us. And I think we've shared before that we have past due, particularly on our military business. We're not happy with that. We can clear some of that. That will be helpful. If we don't, obviously not. So a few things that are still in play. But I think, again, between the cost and cash actions, earnings, working capital that Carolina highlighted, we think at least 2.5 billion is the right outlook at this point, given what we know and don't.
Operator:
From Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe :
So I guess, we've called cash quite well here. So let's move on to power. I think you mentioned, Larry, that the pipeline of activity and potentially orders in 4Q looks pretty good in Power. So maybe just talk about what you're seeing there. And on Gas Power services, I think you said sort of flattish to maybe slightly down in Gas Power services. I'm wondering, as we go into 4Q and as we start getting some significantly easier comps there, do you think that we are moving into kind of growth mode back of power services? And maybe just give us some indication of how the moving pieces there are tracking?
Larry Culp:
Sure. I think that in contrast to last year, Gas Power, that was more front-loaded from an orders perspective. We'll see things be more back-loaded there. I think some of the wins that we have referenced should convert into orders in the fourth quarter. That's what when we talked about the conversion. That's what we were alluding to. So we think that we're looking at a 25 gig to 30 gig market over time. That will bounce around. But I think as we exit this year, we're encouraged by what we see, both from a pending orders perspective and from a pipeline view. With respect to services, Nigel, I would say the story is not wildly different here in late October. Utilization has been fairly consistent. We've seen that read through to CSAs. I think Carolina referenced the pressure we have seen. I think that’s a function of COVID, frankly. On upgrades, at least in part, we need to evolve the product roadmap, but we know we had some opportunities in the Middle East, for example, that have just been pressured and then some, given the oil price dynamics. And then there's a transactional dynamic. What I'm probably most encouraged by, and we’ve referenced the strategic reviews, we were with the Gas Power team just a few weeks ago. Scott has reset his services leadership. So we have new leaders in, in many of the critical roles. I was just really encouraged by the way they're getting back to some fundamentals. We need to improve our execution, both operationally and commercially in the transactional book. The same thing applies with respect to upgrades, even though that will be tougher. I had the opportunity -- they took me to a little field trip a few weeks ago, I went to a CSA site and a transactional site. Fascinating to see how the differences in the work play out, given the nature of those transactions. So we need to show you that we can take better care of our customers if we can get back to driving a little bit of growth in this business and levering our best grower, but we think we can do better, and we can get good conversion on that activity. And that's what we aim to show you in the coming quarters.
Operator:
From Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell :
Maybe just wanted to circle back on to working capital, I'm afraid. So look, this year, it looks like it's maybe a $4 billion headwind on cash. Last year it was about $3 billion. So it’s sort of $7 billion cash out over 2 years. Given everything you talked about earlier in this call, should we expect a very material tailwind there next year? And perhaps more specifically, in Aviation, it's puzzling in a way on the outside, but working capital has been a headwind there, whether the market is very good or very bad. And you've seen 3 years in a row of working cap headwinds to Aviation. Given we've got 2 months to go until next year, what can you tell us about your expectations for Aviation working capital next year? I'm assuming some of these supplier terms that are written and so forth start to become a bit easier next year.
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Yes. Well, thanks for the question. No, you're right. We've had a significant use of working capital. Of course, the reality is that you have to take working capital into context with the business and how it's growing or not growing, right? So it's been a significant shift this year from the beginning of the year with strong growth and then sort of the rest of the year in many places working on reducing to the new level. If we look at next year, again, specifically for Aviation, a lot will depend on how the top-line develops in Aviation, right? Because that also shows on the receivable side and also the level of DSO. We are working, and John Slattery and the team are working very hard on improving our collections and the processes to the collections. So I would say, on the receivable, it's really a function of where the top-line will be as well as our efforts in factoring, plus underlying improvement on the DSO. On the inventory side, having started with a strong growth trajectory and now working to take it down. There's clearly more to do on the inventory side for the term in Aviation, and they are working on it. And it's not a quick fix. So we expect to see improvement next year on the inventory to sort of come to the new lower level. Then on the payable side, I mean this year, payable for Aviation sort of took the big adjustment on lower levels. So it's been a big drag for Aviation this year in payables. But going forward, with sort of a stabilization of the situation, we would expect the payables also to be a positive. Progress, well, it's a little bit a mix of how much goes out and how much comes in, right? So it's very dependent on the order situation, but it’s just not going to be for us a big drag as it is this year. And you remember, we had the big MRO order also from military that we got in progress this year, which is sort of going to be used next year. So I would say that's all 4 of them. So good opportunities, both on inventory and receivables, but also on payables, more as a function of the situation and progressing sort of more market dependent.
Operator:
From Citigroup, we Andy Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Larry. So you've talked about positive cash flow for 2021. I know everybody is sort of asking about it. Maybe if there's a finer point on the bridge into 2021. You've obviously got these cost actions in Aviation. You've talked about the inheritance taxes. Is there any other sort of puts and takes that we talk about by division? You did have very strong cash in Healthcare. So can you talk about the sustainability of that as you go into 2021?
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
Okay. So maybe let me start then. Rightly, as you say, I mean, earnings is going to be a key driver, and we will see some gradual improvement in some of the end markets, like in Aviation and Healthcare. A big, big part is our self-help, the 2020 cost and cash actions, right? We talked about that there is $2 billion this year in cash and -- sorry, costs entry in cash. But that annualizes to $1.5 billion to $2 billion of structural costs out and that flows down to the free cash flow, right? So that will see a carryover for next year on that. And we're working to increase that number, simply said. I talked about factoring. Factoring has been a significant headwind in 2020. So we don't expect this to repeat at the same level in 2021. Also, the non-repeat of the Aviation payables outflow as the market stabilizes will help. It will be partially offset by progress. And then we'll have what we talked about, or Larry mentioned on inheritance items, we see less of a lift from that in '21.
Larry Culp:
Andy, and I’d just -- I think we've got the line of sight that Carolina has talked about. We're going to go through detailed reviews with the businesses here in November to put a finer point on all of that. But to me, I hope what you see a little bit here in the third quarter, I think what we're going to demonstrate in the fourth quarter is this operational transformation is gathering momentum. And a number of the things we've talked about commercially, be it just increasing visibility, enhancing our win rate, while being more selective, turning that into better underwriting and then ultimately, execution, particularly in and around projects in Power and Renewables, all of that -- the cumulative effect of those small wins, again, that game of inches, daily management, I think is what we aim to deliver here.
Operator:
From Vertical Research, we have Jeff Sprague. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague :
It's nice to see the positive cash flow. Can we just spend a minute on the SEC here? I guess the question is kind of the basis on which you reserve $100 million. I mean, do you have visibility on that number? Was it just untenable to not book anything given the fact that this has now been formalized? And just your comfort that that's kind of in the right zip code of what the total cost might be?
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
So Jeff, as we have disclosed, we've been cooperating with the SEC on its investigation on several legacy matters, and they relate to insurance, long-term service agreements and the goodwill charge at Power in 2018. And we recorded a reserve in the third quarter of $100 million, and we believe that that's appropriate under the circumstances, and that's to address all of the issues covered in the SEC investigation.
Jeff Sprague :
But that's based on some kind of historical analysis of prior situations. So I guess that's really the question, how you derive that number?
Larry Culp:
Jeff, I would -- as Carolina said, I think we're cooperating with the commission, and I think we take that reserve at that level, given our view on what's appropriate, given the circumstances. And other than that, we really are not at liberty to say more publicly.
Operator:
From UBS, we have Markus Mittermaier. Please go ahead.
Markus Mittermaier :
Just on Power free cash flow, please. If we -- I understand sort of the moving pieces in the near-term here. But if you look at the glide path specifically in that business, you provide a lot of helpful granularity, I think, in the appendix on the gas side. So I'm kind of intrigued by the exit on the new builds for -- on the Steam side. So how much of your capital infrastructure in place within Steam do you need or fixed cost, I should say, do you need to kind of keep that business going, I guess, on the service side, if you're saying is exiting ultimately the newbuild side? Because we've not really focused on the fixed costs that you have within Power on the Steam side. So I'm just wondering how much upside there could be on the overall Power fixed cost base here going forward?
Larry Culp:
Markus, you're exactly right. When you think about the Steam business, right, we've got both, if you will, capacity that serves the coal new build market in addition to the nuclear business and a service platform that serves both markets. I think that that's a business that has been challenged, where we have not necessarily made all the progress we have made in Gas Power. Part of the announcement that we have signaled with respect to the newbuild exit with respect to coal will allow us to take more cost, more fixed cost, as you say, I don't believe in fixed cost, frankly, but the cost there that we can lean out. And then we'll continue to look for opportunities throughout the rest of that portfolio. So the team has made progress a number of legacy dynamics in play, particularly in Steam. So we're not yet where we are in Gas Power, but working very hard. And I think as we remix that business more towards services we'll shed that cost, and it will be a better contributor to GE going forward, albeit one that's unlikely to have a robust top-line growth trajectory.
Operator:
From Bank of America, we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin :
Just a question on Aviation. You had lower charges around long-term service agreements in third quarter versus the first half. How much of the CSA book has been renegotiated, given lower schedule size? And sort of a broader question, and I think Larry sort of talked about working with customers, how do you work with your customers to keep them from sort of going to the third parties in this environment, in Aviation?
Carolina Dybeck Happe :
So Andrew, to start with the CSA charges, they're lower than expected. Well, I think we should keep in mind that in the second quarter, we really took an aggressive look at all our CSA contracts in relation with what happened -- what is happening with COVID and our expectations going forward. So we took a $600 million charge for COVID impact. This quarter, we saw some impact, but that was from higher costs coming out of the CSA margin reviews, it's about [100 million], but that's no change to our earlier forecast on the outlook on the CSAs, right? I think it's important to remember this sort of models that are really long-term in nature, and it's really bottom-up modeling, and it's sort of estimated future billings versus future cost to serve up to 15 to 20 years, right? So with that said, we are mindful of the situation. We are, of course, monitoring the sort of current utilization trends and looking at bankruptcies, frankly, but we haven't seen anything that is -- that changed our estimates from the second quarter, and that's why we don't have any other impairments on the book in the third quarter.
Larry Culp:
Andrew, with respect to how we serve and how we compete, I would just add that it's important for everyone to remember that we have an active network of partners that do shop visits for the airlines that we supply into, right? We don't do all that work in our own shops. So that support continues. I think part of what we wanted to do having Russell slide over to Aviation, take on that more broadly defined Aviation services business is to make sure that we are synchronizing better what we do from a repair and overhaul perspective with the commercial side of the business. So whether it be helping carriers execute different scopes, be it providing better delivery to our third parties, managing green time as everybody is as we work through cash conservation with the airlines. That's just a set of daily operational issues that, that business has managed. They manage well over really decades. I think we're seeing particular pressure here today, but encouraged by what we see already with Russell and the team managing through the COVID period here.
Operator:
Thank you. We're out of time at this point. We will now turn it back to Steve for final remarks.
Steve Winoker :
Thanks, Brandon. Thanks, Larry, Carolina, and everybody for dialing in. As always, my team and I will be available for follow-up. I know we're past the hour. But appreciate you staying with us and look forward to speaking with you. Thanks very much, everybody.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the General Electric Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] My name is Brandon and I'll be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference; Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks Brandon. Good morning and welcome to GE's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. I'm joined by our; Chairman and CEO Larry Culp; and CFO Carolina Dybeck Happe. Before we start I'd like to remind you that the press release and presentation are available on our website. Note that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website those elements can change as the world changes. With that I'll hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve thanks. Good morning everyone. We hope you and your families are healthy and safe. We like many others had a challenging second quarter that the GE team met head-on executing well operationally, while we took actions to further derisk our company. I want to thank all of my GE colleagues who are working tirelessly to serve our customers our communities and our company. Now as we expected our financial performance declined across the board in the quarter. The sharp -- the deceleration caused by COVID-19 that we experienced in March continued through May. But we've started to see some early signs of improvement in June and July. Nonetheless, we remain cautious going into the second half given the uncertainty associated with the pandemic. Now taking our second quarter results by business. At Aviation and GECAS many of the drivers we saw in March airlines conserving cash not flying the planes they have limiting maintenance spend and deferring orders are still relevant today. We're aggressively managing these businesses with cost and cash actions and partnering closely with our customers on a daily basis. I'll provide more color on this shortly. In Healthcare, we continue to have elevated demand for COVID-19-related products. However procedure deferrals are still affecting other products including those in our high-margin Pharmaceutical Diagnostics business. Despite these volume and mix pressures, our team held margins flat in the quarter. In Power and Renewables, outages pushed from the first to the second half and field mobility constraints impacted projects. To offset those pressures we continue to improve the cost structures of these businesses. Carolina will discuss these segment results in detail later. With this backdrop we saw revenue down 20% organically due to lower volume across all businesses. Recall that some of our shorter-cycle higher-margin businesses like services in Aviation and Gas Power, as well as Healthcare are more heavily impacted by COVID-19. Combined their revenue was down 3x that of the rest of GE Industrial. Despite this our backlog remains a great strength at $381 billion with about 80% in services. While services are hurting in the near term they have a multiyear time horizon and keep us very close to our customers. Industrial margin was negative and decremental margins were 44%. Our adjusted EPS was a negative $0.15 down significantly year-over-year. This was largely driven by lower volume at our shorter-cycle higher-margin businesses and impairment charges related to COVID-19 at Aviation and GECAS. And Industrial free cash flow came in above the guide we provided in May at a negative $2.1 billion better but obviously still negative. This was largely driven by working capital improvement primarily led by better-than-expected collections across the company. While this reflects improved operational execution we have plenty more work to be the lean company we want to be. So clearly this was a tough quarter and the COVID-19 dynamics continue to evolve with global cases rising. We acknowledge that the full duration, magnitude and pace of this pandemic across our end markets operations and supply chains is still unknown. The macroeconomic environment could deteriorate further before it recovers. That said based on what we see today and the actions we've taken sequential improvement in earnings and cash in the second half of 2020 is achievable and we expect to return to positive Industrial free cash flow in 2021. Moving to Slide 3, we're focused on what we can control in the near term, while positioning the business for the long term. Importantly the near term still starts with our COVID-19 response. Our top priorities remain the safety of our employees and our communities, serving our customers in these critical moments and preserving our strengths. Here's how we're operating today in three core steps
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thanks, Larry. Time flies and I'm heading into month six with GE. These are difficult times, but everyone is very focused on working as hard as humanly possible to make progress every day. Everything I've seen so far reinforces my conviction that we, as a team, can make GE stronger. I am an industrialist at heart. We operate in important spaces with a great team and leading technology. And we have many opportunities to improve
Larry Culp:
Carolina, thanks. In summary, this was without a doubt an exceedingly challenging quarter. But I hope when we look back on this quarter, we'll remember it as one where we rose to a challenge of historic uncertainty and difficulty to embrace our reality head on and drive better operational execution while taking actions to derisk the company. Better earnings and cash performance in the second half are achievable based on what we see today and the aggressive actions we've taken. As Carolina said, we do have work to do and the environment is still fluid. It remains a game of inches. I have no doubt we're accelerating GE's transformation for the long term though. We're increasing our focus on lean and taking action on the factors within our control. That coupled with our fundamental strengths, our exceptional team, our leading technologies and our global reach give us confidence in our ability to unlock the potential across GE today. So with that Steve, let's go to Q&A.
Steve Winoker:
Great. Thanks Larry, Carolina. Before we open the line. I’d ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts again and ask one question, there are quite a number of people today lined up and that way we can get to as many people as possible, Brandon. Can you please open the line?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And from Wolfe Research we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Yes, thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Nigel
Nigel Coe:
Good morning, Larry.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning.
Nigel Coe:
Good morning, Carolina. Steve, I'll keep this to just one question not one question with five parts. So just look, obviously Aviation it's a very fluid situation. But what's your perspective? Is 2Q the low point? Clearly the departure trend suggests that is – that's a very encouraging trend. But I'm curious if you could just give some perspective on the scope for USM spare parts, used spare parts to provide a headwind into the back half of the year. And what's the perspective on shop visits relative to the trend you saw in 2Q? Thank you.
Larry Culp:
Okay. Well, Nigel I think you touched on a number of the variables within the industry on top of those that are a function more directly from COVID-19 that make the first part of the question so challenging to answer and to work through of course inside the company and inside the industry. I think our view is that, we are encouraged by the sequential improvement we've seen broadly around the world but we're still down over 40% from a departures perspective. China being down high single-digits is encouraging. They were first in and first out. Perhaps that suggests some of the potential from here. But I think by no means are we suggesting that things get meaningfully easier from here at least in the short term. I think this is going to continue to be a challenging environment as governments and the public sort through how to react just broadly to the case trends. It will be a different dynamic country to country. But with respect to those things within our control, again we're trying to make sure that we continue to push safety first within our own operations doing what we can to help align the industry around a safe return to flight. Operationally, tremendous amount of focus, as you well know, on cost and cash preservation, all the while looking for those opportunities to quicken the cycle time within a shop visit to improve productivity. So, we're not only reacting to this unprecedented headwind, but they're working through the dynamics that will really dictate how well we perform in the second half in 2021 and beyond. You mentioned USM, clearly, as the carriers make decisions with respect to how they want to transition those planes that are parked in the retirement status, we saw some of that. I suspect we will see more of that over the next couple of years. We think we're well-positioned to participate given that USM is a source of material for our CSAs. It has been for many years. So, we'll have to see how all this plays out. Again, I don't think we're looking for anyone to do us any favors. I don't think we have a different posture than anyone else in the industry. These are difficult times in commercial aviation, but we'll work through that all the while doing what we can to continue to feed a strong and growing military aviation within our company.
Operator:
And from Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. My question will just be around the free cash flow. You talked about an improvement there in the second half, which I think you'd always see seasonally anyway. But maybe just if I could try and frame that scale of improvement, your first half free cash flow was down about $4.5 billion year-on-year. Second half of last year you did about $4.5 billion. So, if we take your comments on improvement in that base number of $4.5 billion, should we expect free cash flow to be positive then in the second half?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi, Carolina here. Yeah. We do have, as you point out, a seasonality in the second half of the year. So, that we expect to see as well. But it's a bit of a different year compared to, sort of, normal years for us. So, the second half, it will be a combination, obviously, of our cash earnings. But then, we also have the working capital dynamics that you sort of mentioned. If I look through that, I would say that on the receivables side, we expect to see improvements. We've put a lot of work into process and focus on this. We saw it help already in the second quarter, and we expect to see more of that in the second half. And we also have the Boeing MAX payments then. And we believe that monetization will be less of an impact. Talking about payables. Here to explain the story, so, basically by purchasing significantly lower volumes versus paying old purchases, you create like a hole in the working capital. So, that tailwind is, sort of, gradually gets better in the third quarter, and then we'll see -- sorry, gradually better in the third quarter. But in the fourth quarter, I would see that as a tailwind as the volume stabilizes. On inventories, we worked hard, but we need to do more. So, we believe we'll see better execution there. And here you do have, for example, the seasonality with Renewables, right? And then on the progress, we believe that we will see also a headwind in the second half, because that will mainly depend on the Aviation orders, right. And to our point that Larry mentioned earlier, our cash countermeasures, the $3 billion of cash with two-thirds of that we expect to come in the second half, which is sort of weaved into some of the comments that I had. And we also see continuous underlying improvements. So, that's our estimate for now. And we also believe, as we said that we'll come back to positive cash flow than -- in 2021 based on what we see today.
Operator:
And from JPMorgan, we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Steve, good morning.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
Maybe just asking that question in a bit of a different way. You mentioned, the $500 million of, I think, deferred discount payments in the quarter that would have gone out the door, I guess was the comment. Can you maybe give clarity on that account? I think other cash flow was relatively strong. And then, just all-in, when you kind of mix all this stuff in all these dynamics, I think you also had a $700 million early defense payment. I don't know how that kind of trends in the second half that helped progress. Can you get to positive in total in the second half? I think that was Julian's question all-in.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
All-in. Well, on the D&A, yeah, it was a $500 million in the second quarter. You can think about that dynamic basically that -- basically as the aircraft are shipped, you pay out the discounts, right. So, it will depend on how the aircrafts are delivered. And then, you also asked about the progress payments on -- from the military. Yeah. We did get progress payments from military. We got, I would say, a bit earlier than expected, because also part of the comments that we had between our estimate and where we landed. But overall, the comments that I made on the working capital are, what they are and also the comment on the results so that still stands.
Larry Culp:
Yeah, Steve I think Carolina has laid it out. We've got work to do. Again I think what we're saying this morning is that, we came in better than we thought in the second quarter obviously a lot of good work. We certainly had a benefit from the lower production schedules with the airframers. But I think as we look at the second half, we're going to drive sequential improvement. We're going to do the best we possibly can and we'll see where we end up at the end of the year.
Operator:
From Bank of America, we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Hi, yes, good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
The July comment on Aviation on trends are based on unit volumes, but I think there are some factors that might hurt pricing as well. I think Honeywell highlighted used materials, competition on shop visits et cetera. So would you expect a meaningful difference between volume declines and revenue decline in the second half in Aviation once you put all these factors together?
Larry Culp:
Andrew, I'm not sure that we would go there today. I think what we're focused on clearly is the trajectory around shop visits. We've got better visibility today in the third than we do in the fourth with respect to our own shops. As you know when we talk about shop visits some of that activity is performed within our own facilities, but there's other volume that we support through material supply into third parties that do similar work. So there are a raft of factors in play here. But again I think given what we see today, we continue to believe the principal pressure that we're all under is how the carriers are going to operate and maintain the existing fleet. There are other dynamics that we haven't talked about such as green time that are realities that we need to embrace realities we need to help our customers manage. So it's going to -- again I think it's going to be challenging for us and for really everybody in the industry until we have better visibility on a sustained trajectory. That said, we continue to take the actions internally, not only on the cost and cash front, but also operationally to drive the lean implementation so that we're producing cycle time and reducing delinquencies and past dues to make the most of this COVID period.
Operator:
From UBS, we have Markus Mittermaier. Please go ahead.
Markus Mittermaier:
Yes. Hi, good morning everyone.
Larry Culp:
Morning.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning, Markus.
Markus Mittermaier:
Morning. On the $1.5 billion to $2 billion structure cash out that you've referred to in the prepared remarks, would you say they're structural obviously at the 2020, sort of, volumes? Or there I say as we work ourselves back to like maybe 2019 volumes at some point, how should we think about that? And then how would you model the net benefits of all this over the next couple of quarters?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes Markus, you're raising an important area for us and this is the cost and the cash actions. So with our cost and cash actions with a $2 billion of cost and $3 billion of cash actions in the year, right, 2020, and basically the $2 billion of cost flows through to cash and then there's additional cash actions like CapEx and other working capital parts. Now that we have worked through, sort of, where we are now what we can say is that one-third to half of those $2 billion are structural cost out. And that actually annualizes to $1.5 billion to $2 billion. And we do see, of course, the biggest chunk of that is in Aviation, but also in big parts in the other parts of the businesses and we see that as true structural cost out. And it's basically changing the way we do things. And if you think about it part of the whole lean transformation is to change the way we do things so that we do them in a better way, and therefore, also have a sort of structural way of taking the cost out so that they would not come back even with the volumes improving. So it's basically helping our decremental margins now, but we're also expecting that to help our incremental margins as markets come back with volume growth.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Markus, I would just add that I think what Carolina has framed well there is the efforts that are underway. But right behind that, we are continuing to look for opportunities and efficiencies. And that's just the nature of kaizen really right? With the passage of time, you see more, you can do more, you build that momentum. So as we continue to look to just drive efficiency overall, but at the same time deal with these headwinds, you should expect us to root out as much cost as we can and to preserve and generate as much cash as possible. But in terms of the hard targets for today, I think Carolina has laid that out.
Operator:
From Citigroup, we have Andy Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Hi, good morning guys.
Steve Winoker:
Hi, Andy.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Morning.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Larry and Carolina, I just want to follow-up on the decremental margins, particularly in Aviation. You mentioned you were at 48% in Aviation excluding the charge. And you only delivered 30% of your cost actions so far. So when you talk about the runway for improvement how much more did you have here? And does your decremental have a chance of getting down into the 30% to 40% range as you go into the second half of the year here?
Larry Culp:
Andy, I would say that there is a lot that's in-flight pardon the pun with respect to improving the cost structure in Aviation. What we've clearly been hit hardest from a volume perspective and internal margin perspective in services. I don't think that the sequential improvement that we see in the second half is going to take us into a zone that starts with a three, but I think we will be in a zone with a four, with the third quarter showing us some modest improvement. And I think we'll see even more in the fourth.
Operator:
From RBC Capital Markets, we have Deane Dray. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Can we get some more color on the Baker Hughes exit plan? Just a little sense of the structure. I'm just not clear whether are you locking into a price? Or is that subject to market pricing during the next three years?
Larry Culp:
Well, Deane, I think what we wanted to highlight today is we're going to take the next step toward full monetization here. We're going to do it over a multiyear period as you saw. And the program at a high level is basically designed to enable us to sell our shares, basically the VWAP over call it the next three years. We think this makes sense in this environment. Clearly we started the monetization of Baker back in the fall of 2018 nearly two years ago. But this allows us to be I think still patient and disciplined while we divest this non-core piece of the portfolio and that sets us up clearly to redeploy that capital. And I think we're excited about the enhanced financial flexibility that it will give us.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes. I would just add to that that it's, sort of, technically we call it it's called a structured forward sale. And it's really that you, sort of, go quarter-by-quarter, but you're not bound by it but that's how the plan works. And by that you also get sort of, the average share price over that period.
Operator:
And from Vertical Research, we have Jeff Sprague. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good day, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
I wonder if we could just. Hi, Larry. Hi. Good morning. I wonder if we could get a little more color on GECAS and the process there. As you indicated just customer events dictated you had to take some actions in the second quarter. Can you give us some idea of what percent of the portfolio was impacted by that and some maybe order of magnitude of what we should expect and kind of the residual value assessment in Q3 for GECAS?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes, sure. If we start then with the second quarter impairment, basically given what we're seeing in the market we decided to make a risk-based approach in the second quarter. In the third quarter, we had the big one. But in the second quarter we decided because of what's happening in the market to look -- you can say start by looking at our customers and choosing the ones that we felt were highest risk. And that's basically from that angle. Then we took their assets and we looked at or tested significantly lower utilization and possible repossessions and not getting funding from government right? And with that we could see that roughly $300 million was -- as an impairment. And if you take that in perspective to the whole portfolio that was around $6 billion of our whole portfolio of operating leases which is around $30 billion in total. So those $292 million pre-tax was the impairment for the second quarter. And then if we then look at the third quarter, I would say that that's a little bit different. That's basically looking at the whole balance of our portfolio actually including the 20% we've reviewed. And here we have a full annual impairment review. I won't bore you with the details, but I can tell you it's very detailed and a very thorough process where we have three different appraisals on each aircraft that's incorporated. We update all the assumptions on discount rates and maintenance cash flows, et cetera. So it's a much bigger process. But I would say we do anticipate pressure on our cash flow assumptions and the value, sort of, driven for possible elevated repossession and a prolonged recovery for the industry. And we'll continue to monitor credit risk impairments I would say as we go over the year. Larry?
Larry Culp:
Yes. I think, you covered it well. We thought that we would take an early look at that highest-risk portion of the portfolio roughly 20% as you said Carolina. And then we'll just run through our normal-course process here in the third quarter and we'll update folks later. But I'm pleased that we pulled that forward given the environment that we're in. I think that's very consistent with our effort to be transparent and on top of these things. But more work to do normal course here in the third.
Operator:
From Gordon Haskett we have John Inch. Please go ahead.
John Inch:
Good morning everybody.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi John.
John Inch:
Welcome. So just going back to kind of the cancellation discussion that you guys talked about or Carolina you mentioned I think with the LEAP I mean there are mounting 737 MAX cancellations. And I'm just curious, if you as in GE you're on the hook to have to repay any of the down payments or progress payments you may have received. Maybe you could size that risk for us? And by extrapolation do you think any of your Aviation previous progress payments are at risk just given the aviation environment due to COVID and what you're seeing?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
If I look at what we have then on progress and cancellations for Aviation, let's start by looking at the progress collection balance that we have, right? It's $5.5 billion and it's a liability because basically it's prepayment for us. And this is largely commercial engines. And the largest portion of this is LEAP-1Bs. And I would say that the second quarter progress refunds were very small and we're not expecting a significant impact in the second half. If you think about how the flow is our risk is sort of limited to refunds on straight-out cancellations. And of course we coordinate with both the air-framers and our customers since the situations are pretty unique. And I would say that the cancellations we have done, but the air-framer is the lead on negotiating new terms. So if the air-framer agrees to refund progress also GE and CFM would be required to refund.
Operator:
From Melius Research we have Scott Davis. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Good morning everybody.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Hi.
Scott Davis:
If we kind of isolate the businesses I mean Aviation, Power, Renewables had just rough macro; Healthcare a little bit more stable. Is there -- is the Healthcare business cash flowing at levels you would find consistent with profits?
Larry Culp:
Scott I think we're pretty pleased by and large with Healthcare's performance just given the mix of dynamics there, right both from a topline perspective, we had -- if you just look at orders for example we have positive orders in HCS. despite all of the downdrafts largely a function of the COVID products giving us that backfill. Clearly PDx was way down. But the team did a really nice job with that volume mix pressure to really respond quickly. A little easier in a shorter-cycle business like Healthcare to take the cost actions that we did that allowed us to hold the op margins flat and we had decent cash performance there. I think as we get into the second half and really as we think about the recovery from here despite the pressures at Aviation folks are going to need to remember that we've got a good Healthcare business that's going to get better both in terms of the macro environment and our operation and management of it, as well as the turnarounds that are underway in both Power and Renewables. So that's really a large part of the self-help story in addition to what we've talked about in addition to what's happening and the way we're managing at Aviation.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
And I'll just add a comment on Healthcare because you have to remember that we sold BioPharma. So basically we had $300 million of cash flow every quarter from BioPharma that's obviously not going to repeat as of this quarter. So you have to sort of take that into consideration when you look at Healthcare.
Operator:
From Oppenheimer we have Christopher Glynn.
Q – Christopher Glynn :
Hey, thanks good morning. We saw like book value come in a little in the quarter and you have some 3Q processes underway. Longer term, I guess accounting adjustment may be 2022 for insurance. Just wondering in terms of asset sales what's the market and what's the scope of remaining potential asset sales, where you'd expect a ready market to sell that book? What's the state of play with asset sales?
Larry Culp:
Yes. I would say Chris with where we are today particularly on the heels of the BioPharma transaction with $41 billion of cash and I think with lots within our control operationally to improve performance from here we're not spending a lot of time on additional asset sales, right? I think we know we've got to bring these leverage numbers down. We've remained committed to our financial policy in that regard. No change. It's just going to take us a little while longer both on the Industrial side and to a lesser degree on the capital side. But we're going to move forward with this portfolio with the aim of creating as much value as we can over time.
Operator:
From Crédit Suisse we have John Walsh. Please go ahead
John Walsh:
Hi, good morning everyone.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning.
John Walsh:
So there's a lot of puts and takes as it relates to kind of cash flow good guys and bad guys. You did make this comment that you think Industrial free cash flow was up in 2021. I'm kind of just wondering if there's any way to frame the order of magnitude, if we were kind of to remove any kind of volume lift just from some of the timing around restructuring cash, BioPharma, inheritance taxes et cetera if we already start positive before anything else. Or if we're -- all of those items aggregate to something negative and we need that volume lift to come through and help cash into next year?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Okay. So let me do that. But as you say there are a lot of good guys and bad guys and puts and takes. But we say we return to positive free cash flow in Industrial free cash flow in 2021 and that's based on what we see today, right? So in addition to some gradual improvement in end markets there are really a number of items that give us this confidence. I would say the first and very important one is that we deliver on our 2020 cost and cash actions, right? So annualizing $1.5 billion to $2 billion of structural costs out it flows to the free cash flow. And then as you mentioned, we also have the reduction in inheritance taxes a lot of that on the Power side with the say deferred monetization and what have you. That would be basically a $1 billion year-over-year improvement in 2021. Then on the businesses gaining traction. I would say Power it's more of a continued turnaround story right cost out and keep the fleet running. Renewables also turnaround on Grid and hydro better project execution. We have the Haliade-X orders. And we see some growth on the international markets that I mentioned in my previous comments. Healthcare well early signs of better trends. We saw most improvements through the quarter. And here we also have the program where we are working on improving our fixed costs. And what was a margin expansion activity is now a margin preserving activity and then will also help in margin expansion. And I think this is super important this operational self-help and really working with the lean transformation that then takes hold in the whole company, because that improves both the margin and the profit, but also the working capital. And we've just seen the start of sort of us gaining traction there. And you will see that in our results over time. Commercially, Larry maybe you want to comment on that?
Larry Culp:
Well as I mentioned earlier, I mean we just think that there are going to be opportunities amidst the pressure of the moment really across the portfolio to smartly create new programming and products. You see that particularly in Healthcare right now given the way the team has responded around not only the ventilator and patient monitor opportunity. But the way frankly we've been able to deploy some of the digital products in a more meaningful way than we might have otherwise despite all the time and money that we have put into the digital health care effort. So Carolina I think you covered it. It's really about sequential improvement from here. Again, the environment remains challenging. But with respect to those things that are within our control, we think Healthcare is well positioned to lead. The turnarounds in Power and Renewables continue and we're expecting a multiyear recovery in Aviation.
Steve Winoker:
Hey, Brandon, we only – we are past the hour. We have time – we will fit in one more in the queue. I recognize there are more folks and we'll get you afterwards, but just one last one please.
Operator:
Okay. And for Morgan Stanley we have Josh Pokrzywinski. Please go ahead.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Josh.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Good morning.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Larry, could you help us out with maybe a teams element in terms of that Aviation recovery over multiple years. What would you expect to be kind of the normal lag between departure growth and shop visits? Obviously, there's a lot of elements of maximizing green time and USM and retirements a lot of factors at work. But what does normal look like? So we can -- we try to understand the baseline for some of those other moving parts?
Larry Culp:
Yes. Josh I'm not sure we really have a working definition of normal, if you will, right? If we went back and we looked at the way this has played out for us over time right whether it be 9/11 the crisis or -- I mean every time that we've seen these sorts of pressures, the dynamics have been different every time out. So I think the best that we can share today is that as the airlines are working through what this means, not only in terms of their fleet plans and their cash -- their own cash preservation efforts their maintenance programs going forward, we'll continue to be under some pressure in services. I just don't think there's any -- really any two ways about it. So despite the improvement in departures and that sequential uplift. I think we're mindful that this is going to continue to be challenging for us in 2020 and that won't be the end of it.
Steve Winoker:
Brandon, we are out of time at this point. So I want to -- I'm going to thank everybody then and we're going to have to move on. But again, we'll be available for follow-up questions as needed.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the First Quarter 2020 General Electric Company Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon and I’ll be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] Please note this conference is being recorded. And I will now turn it over to Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Communications, you may begin sir.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Brandon. Good morning and welcome to GE’s first quarter 2020 earnings call. I’m joined by our Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Before we start, I’d like to remind you that the press release and presentation are available on our website. Note that some of the statements we’re making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. With that, I’ll hand the call over to Larry.
Lawrence Culp:
Steve, thanks. Good morning everyone. We hope you and your families are healthy and safe. Our thoughts are with all of those affected by this global pandemic. We recognize this is a very difficult and challenging time for everyone. On behalf of GE, I want to express our gratitude to those on the front lines in the medical community, many of whom we’re privileged to call our customers working tirelessly to protect all of us, thank you. When we last spoke during our outlook call in March, we were encouraged by the continued strength in Aviation and Healthcare and the progress made in Power and Renewables. In the eight-week since, the world has fundamentally changed as we all know the COVID-19 pandemic evolved rapidly, hitting hard and hitting fast. While this is an earnings call, our goal today is to provide you with the most current and relevant information we have, and as always to be as open and transparent as we possibly can. So forgive us if we ran a little long today. The COVID-19 dynamics at GE, like the economy at large, are fluid and still evolving but clearly challenging in the near term. With that, I’ll start with our response to COVID-19. Carolina who is joining our earnings call for the first time will cover the financials, and then I’ll wrap with a more in-depth view of our current operations. Moving to Slide 2. During this unprecedented time, we’re focused on three areas. First, the health and safety of our employees and our communities. We established a COVID-19 task force that is working to ensure we’re doing everything in our ability to protect the health and safety and aligning with the various government directives and medical advisories in real time. To that end, we’ve encouraged those employees who are not directly performing customer facing essential jobs to work from home wherever possible. But given the mission-critical work we do at GE, not everyone can stay home. I’d like to acknowledge our employees out in the field and in our factories for their unwavering dedication as they continue to deliver for our customers, supporting essential services like hospitals, power generation, airlines and national defense. We’re ensuring they have what they need to do their job safely. This includes temperature screenings, face coverings, and gloves as necessary and physical distancing, all keeping with national, state, and local guidelines. I’m also inspired by the support that our employees have shown each other. We recently established an employee relief fund, and more than 75 senior leaders across GE have contributed portions of their salary to support those affected by this crisis. Our second priority is continuing to serve our customers. In Healthcare, we’re ramping production of critical medical equipment used to diagnose and treat COVID-19 patients, including respiratory, CT, monitoring solutions, X-ray, anaesthesia, and point of care ultrasound product lines. Already, our team has doubled production of ventilators and plans to double again by the end of June. Healthcare’s digital and AI Solutions are helping hospitals remotely monitor multiple patients, advanced and automated route [ph] tasks, so clinicians can spend more of their precious time focused on life saving work. Across all of our businesses, we’re in constant communication with employees, customers, suppliers, and governments to maintain business continuity without disruption. Our third priority is preserving our strength. First and foremost, sound liquidity is crucial, and solidifying our balance sheet remains a key focus. With the recent closing of the BioPharma transaction, we received $20 billion of net proceeds. This provides GE with optionality to protect our Company and remain flexible. And importantly, we retained a $17 billion leading Healthcare Business at the center of an ecosystem striving for precision health. Preserving our strength in a time like this also requires a different operating model. Here I draw on my experience as a CEO managing through 9/11 and the global financial crisis. There are three steps in this model; embrace reality, redefine winning, and execute the plan, easy to say, hard to do. Starting with embrace reality. This is necessary in a time like this when so much has changed and remains uncertain. For us, it means recognizing that we’re facing significant headwinds in Aviation, and we may be for a while. We wish it were otherwise but that’s not our reality. Next, redefine winning. We came into 2020 with a plan to define winning as profitable growth, margin expansion, and cash generation. Now, we need to adjust to the altered environment to focus and inspire our team. Let me share some ways we’re doing this. While safety has always been a top priority for GE, COVID-19 has reshaped our safety agenda. In terms of our financial priorities, improving our cash generation and decremental margins in the second half are key focus areas. And in Healthcare, we clearly didn’t come into the year expecting to increase our ventilator production fourfold, but we will. And finally, execute the plan. We’re moving with speed, discipline, and intensity to improve our cost structure, targeting more than $2 billion of cost actions and more than $3 billion of cash actions, and this is where lean is particularly relevant from daily management through traditional Kanban systems, which help reset inventory levels; to new problem solving tools we’re rolling out across GE. Let me share a recent example from Gas Power. In our Greenville facility, the team used lean to cut the distance that a single part travels during production from three miles, yes three miles, to a mere 165 feet, slashing the time it took to make that part by 42%. These are the sort of operational efficiencies that are more essential than ever in this environment. So that’s our approach here. We’re facing the pandemic head on while continuing to execute our long-term strategy for GE. Moving to Slide 3, you’ll find a snapshot of our first quarter results, and Carolina will take you through this in detail, but first a few top-line thoughts. As I noted, we entered the year with momentum. However, as COVID-19 continued to spread globally, and I’m not going to sugar coat this, we got hit hard in some of our highest margin parts of our best performing businesses. This is especially true at Aviation Services where COVID-19 caused a rapid decline in Commercial Aviation demand, and even essential travel became difficult in the second half of March. A similar situation also transpired at Power Services, where travel restrictions caused by COVID-19 impacted our field personnel. And across all of our businesses, we started to see some project fulfilment and execution issues. At the same time, healthcare performed well due to urgent demand for our products used in the fight against COVID-19. Taking a step back, about 80% of our roughly $400 billion backlog is in services, which have a long-time horizon. And while services have been hurt in the near term, those capabilities remain one of our greatest strengths. They keep us close to our customers with deep strategic relationships, especially through periods of volatility. So, in the spirit of embracing reality, let me frame for you what we’re seeing right now at a high level, and then I’ll do a deeper dive after Carolina reviews the first quarter. In Aviation and at GECAS, Airlines are conserving cash, not flying the planes they have, limiting maintenance spare, spend where they can, and all the while deferring orders in many places. No one can predict when and how leisure and business travel will resume, but the reality is, likely it’s not soon. So we’re redefining winning, from margin expansion in 2020 to improving our decremental margins this year, which requires we aggressively adjust our cost structure. That’s what winning looks like for Aviation and they’re moving forward with a comprehensive plan. To be clear, we’ll get back to targeting those 20% operating margins post-pandemic. In Healthcare, we’ve been on the front lines combating COVID-19 since the early days in Wuhan. This is fundamental to our mission. While we’ve seen demand surge for certain products, other products including those in our high-margin pharmaceutical diagnostics business have been negatively impacted as multiple procedures are deferred. Healthcare is likely to rebound faster than Aviation, but we’re still fast-tracking additional cost out actions, targeting an incremental $700 million since Kieran and the team spoke with you in December. In Power and Renewable Energy, the impact of COVID-19 has been more limited to date. Specifically at Power, we’re experiencing outage delays and restrictions in field service travel and we’re monitoring new unit orders and services. To offset this, we’re further rightsizing the cost structure and in Power we already reduced headcount by 700 in the first quarter. Now clearly across GE, there are a number of large variables that are unknown at this point, including the full duration, magnitude and pace of recovery across our end markets, operations and supply chains. We’re also monitoring how the resulting interest rate environment will impact pension obligations and our run-off insurance business. So let me tell you what we do know. The second quarter will be the first full quarter with pressure from COVID-19, and we expect that our financial results will decline sequentially before they improve later this year. The bottom line is we have some challenging times ahead, but this too shall pass. I’m confident the underlying reset we took over the last 18 months to focus GE’s portfolio and instil a greater focus on customers and lean give us a running start for what we face today. Moreover, I’ve seen our response to COVID-19 signs of how we’re moving faster to change GE for the good, more lean work to help reduce inventories in the face of demand challenges in Aviation. Travel restriction spring on the use of remote digital technology to complete field work in Renewables and more capital discipline across the board. With new leaders assimilating faster and what’s [ph] real impact, healthcare comes to mind. So all of this in combination with the planned actions we’ll discuss later are accelerating our transformation of GE. With that, I’ll turn it over to Carolina. But before I do, let me say how pleased I am to have her on board. In two short months, it’s clear we share the same perspectives of embracing reality and operational bias for action and executing with speed.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thank you, Larry. I’m proud to join my first earnings call as CFO of GE and help lead this company into - forward. As we noted, we’re operating in unprecedented times, and we’re focused on; first, keeping our financial position strong and safe with a keen eye on leverage on liquidity, as well as cash flow and capital discipline. While GE’s actions over the last couple of years have put us on a stronger footing ahead of this situation, we will do more. Second, working with our businesses to take the right actions, not only to help mitigate the impact of COVID-19, but to serve customers better, operate smarter, and more efficiently, and integrate lean more holistically. While Larry and I are focused on the near term, we’re also managing for the long term. We’re working together to reduce complexity at GE, adding a lean culture that deliver sustainable earnings and cash flow generation. Today, my intention is to take you through our results in detail and provide context that help you see what I see across the businesses. With that, let’s turn to Slide 4. This was a challenging quarter for us as the macro environment rapidly deteriorated. Taking it from the top. First quarter orders were down 3% organically or down 4%, ex-BioPharma. Growth in Power and Healthcare was offset by double-digit declines in Aviation and Renewables. Both equipment and service orders were down to low single digits. I’ll cover this by business shortly. Industrial revenue was down 5% organically or down 6%, ex-Biopharma, with equipment revenue flat and services down 9%. Both Aviation and Power Services were adversely impacted in the quarter due to COVID-19. Adjusted Industrial profit margins were down 450 basis points organically. Most of the dilution came from Aviation and Renewables with Aviation impact mostly driven by COVID-19. Now let’s discuss the EPS walk. Starting at continuing EPS of $0.72, there was a $0.75 gain primarily related to the $11.1 billion after-tax gain from the BioPharma sale, which also included $0.01 of tax benefit in GE Capital. This was partially offset by a $4.6 billion after-tax loss on our remaining Baker Hughes stake, which we measure at fair value each quarter. On restructuring and other items, we incurred $0.02 of charges. This is principally related to the reduction of Aviation’s U.S. workforce. Lastly, non-operating pension and other benefit plans were a $0.06 headwind in the quarter. Excluding these items, adjusted EPS was $0.05. As described earlier, our earnings performance was materially impacted by COVID-19 and other market dynamics. This was primarily in Aviation and GE Capital with negative marks and impairments in both GECAS and insurance, as well as higher credit costs. We estimate the first quarter Industrial operating profit impact from COVID-19, roughly $700 million. Drivers included lower aftermarket sales, project delays and supply chain constraints. This impact is higher than we anticipated at the March outlook call, reflecting the rapid global progression of the pandemic, while our prior forecast largely reflected the slowdown in China. Our focus on addressing this pandemic is global. We are targeting more than $2 billion of cost out this year. While this may not affect the full impact, we’re rapidly addressing both cost and cash and making our businesses more agile and customer-focused over time. I can tell you, from my experience that as this program builds momentum, and the company leaders begin to see how powerful results can be, we tend to extend beyond their stated goals. So with just what I’ve have seen so far I’m encouraged that we can have some of that same experience at GE. Moving to cash. As many of you know, the first quarter is typically low for our free cash flow. This year, we’re impacted by our usual seasonality but also COVID-19, especially in Aviation. Industrial free cash flow was a use of $2.2 billion, $1 billion worse than prior year. That’s notably, excluding Aviation, each Industrial business improved free cash flow versus last year. Turning to the key drivers in the quarter. Starting with net earnings, if you exclude the BioPharma gain and the mark-to-market on our Baker Hughes investment, income, depreciation and amortization totalled $700 million, that’s down $900 million versus prior year. Next, working capital; negative $2.6 billion with a significant use of cash, down $1.1 billion. Let me take you through the main factors. First, we had the net inflow in accounts receivable, driven by seasonally lower volume in Gas Power and Renewables. Second, we had an outflow in accounts payable, driven by lower volume in Aviation and higher disbursements related to prior year material buys in Renewables. Third, the increased inventory to support an expected second and third quarter volume ramp in onshore wind and a sharp output decline in Aviation. Fourth, progress collections. They were a use of cash as new orders and milestone payments were more than offset by burn down of prior progress payments in Power and Renewables. Lastly, we also spent about $600 million in gross CapEx. We are on track now to reduce 25% of our CapEx spend this year. For cash flow in total, we estimate the first quarter impact from COVID-19 of around $1 billion, the majority of which was felt in Aviation. As we look forward, we expect continued free cash flow pressure. We’re targeting more than $3 billion in cash action. However, over time, we know that each business can be a better cash generator, as we improve execution. Moving to Slide 6, we continue to strengthen our balance sheet. The largest milestone in the quarter was closing BioPharma. With $20 billion of proceeds, we ended the quarter with $33.8 billion of Industrial cash, up approximately $16 billion sequentially. GE Capital ended with $13.5 billion of cash, down approximately $5.3 billion sequentially, driven by contractual maturities. We continue to hold a liquidity balance covering 12 months of GE debt maturities. We’ve recently taken actions to enhance and expand our liquidity and pay down debt. On April 17th, GE entered into a three year $15 billion syndicated revolving credit facility. This was a planned refinancing of GE’s prior $20 billion syndicated revolving credit facility, including bilateral agreements, we expect to have in the range of $20 billion in total credit lines access going forward. Following the sale of BioPharma, we also improved our liquidity profile in April. We reduced our near-term debt maturities by issuing $6 billion in GE debt in April and subsequently tendering for $4.2 billion of debt. We plan to use the remaining $1.8 billion of proceeds to further debt reduction, and the combination of transaction will therefore be leverage neutral. Following this, GE Industrial has no debt maturities in 2021, $1.9 billion of maturities in 2022 and $900 million in 2023. At GE Industrial, we reduced debt by approximately $7 billion. We reduced commercial paper use by $1.1 billion in the quarter and we paid $6 billion of the intercompany loan from GE to GE Capital in April, using proceeds from BioPharma. At GE Capital, we reduced debt by $4 billion. So we reduced external debt by $10 billion year-to-date, including $4.7 billion of maturities in the quarter and an additional $5.4 billion of 2020 maturities tendered in April. Offset by GE’s $6 billion repayment on the intercompany loan. Our financial policy goals remain; maintaining a high cash balance, achieving less than 2.5 times net debt-to-EBITDA at GE Industrial, and less than four times debt-to-equity at GE Capital, a credit rating in the single A range, and reinstating a dividend in line with peers over time. We remain committed to achieving our leverage targets, but we now expect to achieve those targets over longer period than previously announced due to the impact of COVID-19. Next, on Slide 7, we’ll discuss Industrial segment’s results. Starting with Aviation, as we’ve noted, our first quarter results were materially impacted. Orders were down 13% organically with both equipment and service orders down. Equipment orders were down 27%, primarily driven by commercial and jet business due to the MAX grounding and the COVID impact. Services orders were down 4% primarily driven by commercial services, partially offset by military which won new fighter and helicopter service orders from the U.S. DoD. Service orders were stronger than revenues due to the military orders, which were up 60% year-over-year. Backlog of $273 billion was flat sequentially and up 22% versus prior year, primarily driven by long-term service agreement. This included roughly 200 LEAP-1B unit order cancellations in the quarter. Revenue was down 11% organically. Equipment revenue was down 17%. We shipped 472 commercial install and spare engine units this quarter, down 37 versus prior year. Sales of 272 LEAP-1A and 1B units were down 152, and CFM56 units were down 98 units. Service revenue was down 8% due to commercial services down 11%. This was driven by lower spare part shipments and lower shop visits from the impact of COVID-19. Total military revenue was down 7% with 146 engine unit shipments, down 9% and this was driven by supply chain fulfilment dynamics and inbound material delay, partly offset by the advanced programs growth. Operating profit was down 39% organically, primarily on lower volume and negative mix pressures in commercial services from the impact of COVID-19 and lower spare engineering unit. Segment margin contracted 650 basis points organically. This was primarily due to COVID-19 impacting our commercial businesses in both engine and services, the continued 737 MAX grounding, the non-repeat of prior year favourable contract adjustments and the first full quarter of revenue from our aeroderivative business, now that we have deconsolidated Baker Hughes. To add a bit more color, COVID-19 represents just over half of the year-over-year margin difference, 737MAX timing considering install and spare engine volume and supply chain excess costs represent additional 20% of the volumes. Moving to Healthcare, which performed well. Orders were up 9% organically; equipment orders were up 14% and services were up 1%. Healthcare orders, excluding BioPharma, were up 6% driven by a surge demand related to COVID-19. This was partially offset by delays in procurement and lower demand of products less related to COVID-19. Examples like MR and Interventional in Healthcare Systems as well as contrast media and nuclear tracers in pharmaceutical diagnostics. Life Sciences orders were up 10%, backlog was $17.4 billion, down 6% sequentially and down 3% versus prior year due to the sale of BioPharma. So excluding BioPharma, backlog was up 1% sequentially and 4% versus prior year. Revenue was up 2% organically and 1% excluding BioPharma. Healthcare Systems’ revenue was up 2% with services and 3% with equipment flat. Life Sciences was up 4%. Operating profit was up 10% organically. Segment margin expanded a 140 basis points organically or 30 basis points excluding BioPharma. This was driven by volume and cost productivity offset by price and logistics pressures from COVID-19. Next, on Power, we had mixed results with equipment’s top line strength offset by challenges in services. Orders were up 14% organically. Gas Power orders were up 8% with equipment orders up 37% largely due to one turnkey order. We booked 2.2 gigawatts of orders from nine gas turbines. Gas Power Service orders were down 3% with contractual services down and transaction and upgrades roughly flat. Power Portfolio orders are up 27% with strong equipment and services orders in Steam and Power conversion. Backlog clocked $85 billion flat sequentially and down 1% versus prior year. Gas backlog was $71 billion or flat sequentially. Revenue was down 12% organically, largely driven by services. In Gas Power, revenue was down 12%. Gas Power equipment revenue was up 4% organically on higher hedge turbine mix. We shipped seven gas turbines versus nine gas turbines in the first quarter of ’19. We helped our customers achieve commercial operations on over 32 units, translating to almost 4.7 gigawatts of new power added to the grid. Gas Power Services revenue was down 19% [indiscernible] as outage this and transactional sales pushed out of the quarter due to COVID-19 and we had lower revenue on higher margin upgrades. Despite this, services would still have been down in the quarter. This was driven by supply base constraints on hot gas path parts and outage cost overall pressuring our CSA margin rate. Power Portfolio revenue was down 12%. This was driven by lower volumes across sub segments and still we had lower services backlog convertibility. In nuclear, the decline was driven by outage timing. And in Power conversion, we refined our sales parameter focused on higher margin market segments. Operating profit was down $239 million and segment margin contracted 570 basis points organically. While Gas Power fixed costs were down 9% sequentially and 16% versus prior year, this was more than offset by lower service volume and additional cost from COVID-19 disruption. Next on Renewables, continued revenue growth was more than offset by fulfilment and execution issues impacting profitability. Orders were down 11% organically, equipment were down 11% as we cycle a stronger U.S. PTC and services were down 23%. A positive spot in the quarter was international orders, which were up 11%. Backlog of $26.5 billion was down 4% sequentially, but up 5% versus prior year. Revenue was up 28% organically. This was mainly driven by onshore wind up 60%. Onshore equipment revenue was up 81% with the new unit turbine deliveries of 731, more than double prior year and repower kit deliveries of 219, up 40%. Onshore services revenue excluding repower kits was up 15%. Onshore order pricing index continues to stabilize at 1% in line with recent trends. Grid revenue was down 8%, mostly due to site closures and delayed milestones driven by COVID-19. Operating loss was down $150 million. This was driven by the supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 fulfilment delays and the non-recurrence of the non-cash gains from an offshore wind contract termination in the prior year. This was partially offset by higher onshore Wind volume. Segment margin contracted 210 basis points, mainly driven by the same items mentioned above and the range of execution issue we fixing at Grid and Hydro. Moving to Slide 8, starting with GE Capital. In the quarter, adjusted continuing operations generated a net loss of $118 million. This excludes the impact of the capital loss tax benefit utilized against BioPharma gain, resulted in $88 million of earnings. Compared to prior year, which excludes the U.S. tax reform benefit, continuing net earnings was unfavourable by $154 million. This was due to negative mark and impairments of GECAS and insurance, lower gains and lower earnings from a smaller asset base. This was partially offset by lower excess interest costs and SG&A. We ended the quarter with $101 billion of assets, excluding liquidity. This was down $1 billion sequentially, primarily driven by GE Test [ph] due to asset sales, depreciation and collection, partially offset by new volume. Insurance assets were flat sequentially as the decrease in unrealized gains driven primarily by higher market rates was offset by the annual insurance capital contribution. Supply chain finance assets were down as our suppliers continue to migrate to MUFG. As noted earlier, Capital ended the quarter with $13.5 billion of liquidity. Capital also ended with $54.5 billion of debt, which was down $4.5 billion sequentially, driven by debt maturities. Discontinued operations generated a net loss of $164 million which was unfavourable versus prior year by $200 million. We still plan to provide the required support to GE Capital in line with insurance statutory funding. Next, just like every businesses corporate must adjust to our new realities and we are continuing to take additional structural actions to rationalize cost and reduce the size at Corporate. Looking at the quarter, adjusted corporate costs were $374 million 8% higher, but that’s primarily due to higher intercompany profit eliminations which will partially offset by better digital performance from contingent cost reduction actions. Sanctions and operations were 25% lower, primarily driven by GE Digital’s improvement. You can see from Digital’s performance that the focused cost reduction programs are gaining traction. We continue to right-size our functional costs across GE and push more accountability into the divisions. Larry and I are conducting cost and cash reviews of each of the businesses with fresh eyes in the current environment. So you can expect that there will be more to come. Stay tuned. I have spent most of my career in leadership at lean, de-centralized companies. Fundamentally, I believe companies outperform when they have a structure that empowers businesses to take the right actions quickly. This type of structure is critical to respond to situations like we have today with COVID-19 but also to be prepared to pivot to growth. We’re working towards this goal and there will be more to come. With that, back to you, Larry.
Lawrence Culp:
Carolina, thank you. There is no question that COVID-19 is putting real pressure on our businesses. Given that so much has changed in this quarter, it will be our first full quarter with pressure from COVID-19. I’d like to spend some time here discussing second quarter trending based on what we’re seeing through the month of April. So starting with Aviation on Slide 9, of all of our Industrial segments, this business is feeling the impact of the pandemic most severely. The rapid contraction of air travel has resulted in a significant reduction in demand, as commercial airlines suspend routes and ground large percentages of their fleets. We’ll cover commercial services and engines on the next two slides in detail, but on the other end of the spectrum, demand for our military business remains strong. To that end, we rebalanced some of our capacity to meet this increased demand. To offset some pressure on the commercial business, we’re taking several steps that while painful preserve our ability to adapt as the environment continues to evolve. We’ve previously announced $500 million to $1 billion in costs and cash actions and we’ve now increased this targeting more than $1 billion in cost actions and more than $2 billion in cash actions. This will be achieved through different initiatives, some of which have been completed, others in flight as we speak. These include a 10% reduction in Aviation’s total U.S. workforce and furloughs impacting 50% of its U.S. maintenance, repair and overhaul facilities and new engine manufacturing. We’ll continue to monitor and potentially extend, as required. We’re also focused on reducing the discretionary and CapEx spend and optimizing working capital. I know Aviation’s decremental margin through this pandemic is top of mind for investors and Carolina touched on the main dynamics impacting our margins in the quarter. While we expect our commercial revenues and profits will continue to be down in the second quarter, our expectations are that the cost actions we’re undertaking will improve decremental margins in the back half of the year. While there are many uncertainties, I expect that we will exit the year with a much lower decremental margin than what you saw in the first quarter. So make no mistake, driving improvement here is our number one focus. As we think about the full year, we’re tracking travel restrictions, carrier and passenger behaviour, disease countermeasures and freight demand, all of which will impact aircraft departures and revenue passenger kilometres. While we’re seeing an unprecedented decline in 2020, we’re taking action, and David and the team are working proactively with our customer’s to navigate through this crisis. So I’m spending a little more time on commercial services, which represented $3.3 billion of revenue in the first quarter. Let’s go to Slide 10. As you can see on the left side, departures across the full industry were strong in the first quarter before rapidly declining in mid-March. As we look at it this week focused on the GE and CFM fleet, global departures are down approximately 75%. Roughly 60% of the CFM fleet is parked today. In line with this, we’re also seeing a significant headwinds in global shop visits, which were down low double-digits in the first quarter as airlines defer short-term maintenance and we expect this trend gets worse before it gets better, with some potential to moderate in the latter half of the year, depending on the variables just outlined. Based on what we’re seeing through the month of April and the second quarter, we’re seeing shop visits down roughly 60% and CSA billings down roughly 50%. Additionally, we expect this significant reduction in utilization is likely to continue to pressure our CSA margins. That said, when the Aviation industry recovers, and it will recover over time, GE is well positioned with the largest and youngest installed base of all engine manufacturers. Additionally, roughly 62% of our GE CFM fleet have seen one shop visit or less and this will generate demand upon recovery. We have more narrow-bodies that are 10 years or younger than the narrow-body install base of the rest of the industry. And when we see a pickup in air travel demand, we expect narrow-bodies will recover most quickly. Overall, it was a challenging quarter and we’re expecting additional pressure here in the second, but our cost actions will alleviate some of the pressure in the second half of 2020. Moving to commercial engines, which represented $1.5 billion of revenue in the first quarter. In light of COVID-19, air-framers are producing at a lower rate. Based on what we’re seeing through the month of April, in the second quarter, we see installed engines down roughly 45% and spare engines down roughly 60% year-on-year, attributable to the delivery deferrals in addition to the already planned lower production rate on the 737MAX. In the near term, we’re rightsizing production capacity and actively managing the supply base. We have very strong relationships with the air-framers and an attractive value proposition is evidenced by a multi-year backlog. As you’ll see on the right, we have strong positions, sole source on two of the biggest new engine entrants, and a 65% win-rate on the other. While we acknowledge there is pressure on near-term demand for new aircraft, these stats demonstrate that customer’s see the value of GE Technology. We’re taking the right actions to be well positioned for the post-pandemic world. Moving to Healthcare, which consists of Healthcare Systems and PDX. In the second quarter to-date we’re seeing increased demand for vital medical equipment in the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 within Healthcare System. Now these product orders, including ventilators, have increased 1.5 times to 2 times versus pre-pandemic levels. But at the same time, we’re seeing reduced demand for other diagnostic products as certain procedures are deferred or cancelled around the world. To be clear, these other diagnostics are still essential and often associated with saving lives in areas including oncology and cardiology, but are currently de-prioritized. PDX is a similar story. This is a high margin business made up of contrast agents and nuclear tracers associated with procedures that are being deferred or cancelled right now. Several HCS product lines and most of PDX is down as much as 50% versus pre-pandemic levels. While these dynamics vary by country, there appears to be a pattern emerging as geographies experience different stages of the virus. Taking China for example, as hospitals come back online, we’re seeing a ramp in previously deferred procedures and increased demand for our equipment and consumables. Healthcare is accelerating its planned transformation to expand margins post BioPharma by reducing headcount, fixed costs, discretionary spend and marketing spend, prioritizing R&D deferring CapEx, and optimizing working capital. Looking forward, we’re most focused on the following indicators for healthcare; hospital admission and occupancy rates, an increase in non-COVID-19 procedures, changes in hospital CapEx budgets, government spending on health care broadly, and development of COVID-19 test treatments and vaccines. Based on our experience in China and the market in April, we expect to be down in the second quarter with potential recovery afterwards. COVID-19 has highlighted the need to build and truly invest and scale a new digitized infrastructure and quickly. We’re committed to our investments in our digital Edison platform and solutions like Mural Virtual Care Solutions which allows one clinician to remote view numerous ventilated patients simultaneously helping to expand their capacity, while reducing their risk of exposure. As our digital healthcare journey continues with the centre of an ecosystem striving for precision health, I’m very proud of the work. Our team is doing to come back COVID-19. Moving to Power on Slide 13. We’ll talk to the current trending in the second quarter to date and dynamics at Gas Power and Power portfolio. Starting with gas Power equipment, while we’re monitoring them energy supply chain disruptions as of today we still see a path to 45 to 50 gas turbine deliveries this year. But our orders profile and therefore cash down payments were several hundred million dollars are likely weaker due to IPP pressures in the U.S. and Mexico, as we expect Deal Financing will become harder through the year. Additionally with oil price pressure impacting Middle East. And as I say, investment including demand for new LNG. We are expecting a longer road tool normalization. Ultimately, we are sticking to our strategy of securing a lower risk margin accretive backlog with disciplined execution. In services, approximately 20% of planned outages are shifting from the first half of this year due to COVID-19 field labour constraints. We’re also seeing pressure on upgrades, primarily in the Middle East were low oil prices are impacting customer budgets. We are seeing GES Turbine utilization in the U.S. up mid single digits due to low gas prices and the shift from coal, but utilization globally is down low double-digits, due to lower electricity demand. Within Power portfolio our Steam business is most impacted factory closures pressured our Steam operations including one facility and move on, which was closed for approximately 8 weeks in the first quarter. Today we’re back up to more than 70% of capacity. The global supply chain has also been disrupted by the shutdown in India driven by government restrictions. Overall, we’re seeing about 30% of outages shift from the first half of this year to the second half with another 10% to 15% pushing into next year. Our Power businesses are taking several measures to offset these pressures. In the first quarter we reduced headcount by 700, notified approximately 1300 contractors implemented a hiring freeze and in line with the demand profile we are taking even further actions. This will serve to reduce fixed cost in 2020 and drive benefits in 2021. Looking forward, we’re tracking a number of items, including timing of our gas turbine new order closure, service outages in volume, fleet utilization is the energy mix and fuel prices are impacting each region differently, supplier impacts and project execution, billing milestones and customer collections. We’re targeting to have our accelerated cost out measures drive organic margin expansion despite these demand changes. Moving to Slide 14 on Renewables. There was a limited impact of COVID-19 in the first quarter and our disappointing results continued to be largely about improving execution. As we’ve said, we think about Renewables in three distinct operating pools, starting with our onshore win. While we continue to deliver at record levels in the Americas, we are seeing supply chain disruption at our LM Wind facilities and we’re monitoring key commercial milestones, such as permitting and financing which could potentially cause timing delays. In offshore Wind certification for our industry-leading turbine Haliade-X remains on track. We’re also on plan to start delivering on our 80 unit 6 megawatt commitments to EDF, after completion of this project in 2021, we expect to start shifting production to the Haliade-X. We’re also monitoring financial closure of 2020 deals. Grid in Hydro our two turnarounds are impacted by supply chain disruptions with over half of our grid facilities now operating below full capacity. And at Grid Automation we’re also impacted by lower book to bill order conversion. Across all three of these pools, we’re increasing cost out in restructuring and we’ve identified several hundred million dollars of additional actions, longer term, a lower cost structure will benefit Renewables. Relating to the global supply chain, we’re focused on the safe reopening of our plants globally and then optimizing the workforce and plant load levels. Looking forward, we were expecting a larger impact from COVID-19 in the second quarter and by business, we’re tracking 2021 demand impact of progress collections and potential site ways in onshore wind, the risk of financing delays associated with deals that offshore, project site delays at Grid and Hydro in the backlog at Grid. On Slide 15 within GE Capital RG insurance businesses are where we are feeling, the largest impacts. So I’ll keep my comments focus there. First GE Cash is better positioned today than in previous downturns, with better asset quality, less customer concentration and more geographic diversity. That said, we’re preparing for elevated repossessions and redeployments, as well as lease restructurings and we’ve had approximately 80% of our customers seeking short term deferrals. As you may have seen we’ve agreed with Boeing on a rebalancing of our 737 MAX order book. Second, at insurance marketing rate volatility is impacting the current value of our investment portfolio and reinvestment yields, this forward deploying capital to capture market dislocation investment opportunities. We’re closely monitoring how this volatility will impact insurance this year. And similar to the industrial segment, we’re implementing incremental cost and cash actions. Looking forward, we continue to expect higher impairments and lower asset sales of GE Cash and insurance. Our season teams are working closely with our customers to navigate through this period. So to close, our priorities are clear, we rapidly mobilized our team in the face of COVID-19 with our top priority being the health and safety of our employees and overall the priorities we view [ph] with you at the outlook call remain intact. We’re facing into our near-term realities, while continuing to manage GE for the long term. When the world is facing the worst pandemic in a century, our team is rising to the challenge, with humility, transparency and focus. We continue to deliver value for our customers. Enabling air carriers to transport essential goods, supplying vital healthcare equipment and keeping the lights on. And while there are many unknowns there will be another side, planes will fly again, healthcare will normalize and modernize and the world still needs more efficient resilient energy. At the same time, we’re embracing this new reality. We’re redefining winning and we’re executing our plan. The cost and cash actions we’ve taken you through this morning are major result. These moves will ultimately allow us to accelerate our multi-year transformation to make GE, a stronger, nimbler and more valuable company and I am confident that GE will emerge stronger. With that, Steve, let’s go to questions.
Steve Winoker:
Great, before we open the line. I’d ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts again and ask one question and a follow-up, so we can get to as many people as possible, Brandon. Can you please open the line?
Operator:
Yes. Thank you, sir. We'll now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And from Vertical Research, we have Jeff Sprague. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hope everyone is well. Thanks for all the great detail.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Good morning. I was hoping you could provide a little bit of colour on how you kind of view the - kind of the asset quality of the contractual service agreements and the like. There is a lot of assets there, obviously there is at least a temporary impairment of cash flows. How does that test work? Have you done it yet and are you close to any particular thresholds there that we should be thinking about?
Lawrence Culp:
Jeff, I think if we look at the service backlog, right, broadly just under $325 billion for the company. The vast majority of that, $234 billion is in Aviation, and I suspect that's where you're most focused. We go through those backlog reviews and the CSA reviews on a regular basis. What we've done here over the last - call it the last seven, eight weeks is really tighten and quicken the review process that we do with the businesses both at Aviation and at GECAS. What we're trying to do is make sure we've got the latest, and if you will most accurate information possible with respect to customer risk given everything that's going on. So we do that on a regular basis. We did that at the end of the first quarter in closing, much as we do every quarter. Clearly, we've got a - we've got a fluid situation and I think the modest charges that we took, the modest changes in the first quarter clearly are going to play out as we go through the course of the year. We can't really scope that for you today. If you look at the CSA book in Aviation for example, as we went through the mechanics of the future billings, the future costs related to those billings, based on the information at the time, it was really just $100 million adjustment, non-cash of course, which is why you see a little bit of the earning cash dynamic. Certainly, as we go forward, we're going to be updating those adjustments. And again, we would expect that we would see more of that given what the airlines are doing with their planes. But I think it's important to keep in mind. Again, these are 10- to 15-year agreements, as you know, and those adjustments are taken in the context of that particularly extended time period.
Jeff Sprague:
Great, thanks for that. And just as a follow-up if I could, I know you don't want to get real precise on guidance, but you are pointing us to a further decline in cash flow in Q2, which isn't surprising, quite frankly, but could you bracket that at all for us what we should expect for Q2, and any high-level thoughts on how the year plays out from a cash standpoint?
Lawrence Culp:
Yes, Jeff, I think that we took guidance off the table a few weeks back and didn't want to take an attempt at framing formal guidance here today in light of all of it is fluid and all of it still evolving here. I think the tack we took was really to try to share as much with you as we possibly could in terms of the April detail business by business and acknowledge that we're going to see a more challenging second quarter here given the full impact of COVID and the like. But beyond that, I think that's really where we are. We know we've got to get to work on the cost and the cash actions. That's why you see us doubling that activity in Aviation, stepping it up elsewhere around the company. So the $2 billion of costs, the $3 billion of cash will clearly help us later on in the year as those actions take root. But today, I think that's really what we're -- that's what we know and that's what we're comfortable sharing.
Jeff Sprague:
Great, thanks. Best of luck. Larry. Thanks.
Lawrence Culp:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
From Morgan Stanley, we've Josh Pokrzywinski. Please go ahead. Josh, your line is open, you might be on mute. Josh, you might be on mute.
Lawrence Culp:
Josh, you there?
Steve Winoker:
Brandon, let's move on and come back to Josh.
Operator:
Okay. Sure, next question we have from Bank of America we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning. Can you hear me?
Lawrence Culp:
Hey Andrew - I can hear you.
Andrew Obin:
Yeah just a question - thank you so much and good luck to everybody. So run rate, minus 60% in terms of shop visits, 50% on CSAs. Do you think you continue to trend at this level in the second quarter or is there a more downside?
Lawrence Culp:
Andrew, the - I think, you're referring to Page 9 in the slide deck.
Andrew Obin:
Yeah, in the Aviation.
Lawrence Culp:
I think what we're seeing here - yeah, I think this is what we're seeing right now, right. And given what the carriers have said publicly what they're doing. We think these are good likely near end run rates to share with you. Again, we're not trying to offer up a definitive view as to the next several quarters. But this is -- this is what we're seeing right now in the second quarter for sure.
Andrew Obin:
And my follow-up question on spare engine sales, I think minus 60%. Have we lost these or will these come back when the situation normalizes? Maybe you can give us some sort of framework how to think about spare engine demand over the next couple of years? Thank you so much.
Lawrence Culp:
Andrew, we were ramping spares with both the LEAP-1A and the LEAP-1B as the narrow-body market was taking off, typical early in the life of an engine activity we are clearly seeing that soften, not necessarily going to zero as preparations are being made for the return to service of the MAX, right. I don't think that opportunity is lost. But I think like much of what we're seeing in Aviation broadly, it will be pushed out for a few years. And again, I don't think we're taking a definitive view as to what year or what quarter things get back to, if you will, a normalized 2019 level, but we recognize the discussions out there about this being a multi-year recovery, gradual, slow. I think we're embracing that reality and that applies really across the portfolio both on the OE side as well as the aftermarket, spares included.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you very much for all the detail and stay safe. Thank you.
Operator:
From Melius Research we have Scott Davis. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Hey, good morning guys, and welcome, Carolina.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thank you.
Scott Davis:
Larry, any - good morning, Larry. Any way to think about the cost actions as it relates to kind of structural versus more kind of pandemic short term related.
Lawrence Culp:
Sure. Well, I would say, Scott, as you well know that when we're in a mode like this, you're moving as quickly as you possibly can almost anywhere that you can. So if you look at what we've announced at Aviation, the doubling of those activities today, the broadening across the company. If you look at the tally today there is a decidedly short term bias there that Carolina and I are going to be working with the CEOs over the coming weeks to transition to a more permanent action, right. If you look at what we did in Aviation, for example, in terms of the temporary lack of works that was a way to quickly adjust our cost structure in that business on a variable basis to these shockingly fast changes in demand. You might categorize that as temporary. We need to work through the changes on a more permanent basis that are required in light of the length of the recovery that we're looking at. So we have confidence in these -- in these numbers that we're sharing today, the $2 billion of costs, the $3 billion of cash. There is a bit of a tactical bias today just given how fresh this is, but we will be leaning in toward making more of them permanent recognizing though at the end of the day, there will be a bit of a mix, be it head count related discretionary spend on the cost side in addition to some of the working capital and certainly the CapEx reduction that Carolina referenced, the 25% reduction year-on-year. So a lot going on, and by no means is this - these headlines today the end. It's very much a work in progress.
Scott Davis:
Okay. That's helpful Larry. And when you think the $20 billion kind of came to you pretty much about perfect timing, but does that money just sit on the -- does that have to sit on the balance sheet pretty much as is for the, for the year can you -- or is it just such a big number you can start to parse some of it out to thinking in terms of whittling down some of the debt that you can -- you can manage?
Lawrence Culp:
Well, we, it did come at a at a good time there is no question, that's why we put the emphasis in the BioPharma set up on certainty, right. We want to take the market risk off the table relative to thinking through the healthcare options. Carolina, anything you want to add relative to kind of managing liquidity versus leverage right here? I think with...
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes. I think it's important to acknowledge that the world is different now compared to before COVID and it's very important for us, of course leverage is important, but liquidity is very important and we end the quarter with $47 billion cash right and that's really to cover $18 billion of GE and GE Capital long-term debt maturities now through '21. And actually, after the April actions we are down to $13 billion of maturities for '20 and '21, almost all of that in capital. But I would also say, we expect to have around $20 billion in total credit lines going forward and that's really in line with our risk appetite. We have the new $15 billion three year RCF that I mentioned and $5 billion turnover will be on a $20 billion of credit lines. And I think, we just said that you know, we really intend to maintain a high level of cash, I would say to maximize flexibility, and that's why we're taking these actions also to de-risk our balance sheet and basically prudently manage our liquidity in these very challenging external environmental times.
Scott Davis:
That makes sense. And thank you and good luck to you guys.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thank you.
Lawrence Culp:
Thanks, Scott. Be well.
Operator:
And let's try Josh Pokrzywinski again from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, sir.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi, guys. Can you hear me this time.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yes.
Lawrence Culp:
Clearly, Josh. Good morning.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Awesome, and hope everyone is well. I'd echo earlier comments. Larry, can you just give us a sense, and I know you guys have data going back eons in Aviation. How the impact of retirements and cannibalizations kind of make more of a U-shape versus what the air traffic may look like? Is there a natural lag between when folks start flying again and when shop visits can happen just as a function of kind of using up some of the run time on otherwise idled assets?
Lawrence Culp:
Well, Josh. Certainly we have - we have revisited the history. The team is well versed in what we have seen in years past. I'm not sure we've seen anything kind of on par with this, but there is no question that there is going to be a bias on the part of some as some of these fleet reductions play out to retire some of the older aircraft, and that will factor into the - to the aftermarket, much like some of the dynamics around green time and how here in the short term folks try to preserve cash, carriers who try to preserve cash in their business. So I'm not sure that there is necessarily an exact model that captures what all the carriers and aggregate are going to do here, a model that offers great precision. I think we do know that the combination of these factors is going to create pressure for us -- for us here in the short term. I think what's most important for our business really is cycles, much more so than revenue passenger miles. And as we see schedules come back, as we work our way through the pandemic that will, that will put us back on, I think, better footing. But here in the short term, I think we're acknowledging that we're going to see shop visits and CSA billings take on some real pressure due to the downturn.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Understood, thanks. I'll leave it there.
Operator:
From JPMorgan, we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Lawrence Culp:
Hey, Steve. Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
In early March, you guys had that slide that showed $2 billion to $4 billion in free cash flow guidance, which is obviously off the table, but you also talked about things growing in '21 and '22 and off that kind of $3 billion base. I think most research and numbers I saw were kind of in that $6 billion range of free cash flow. So kind of growth off of that level. Are we still like is -- are the out year numbers still at all legit or is that -- are you kind of withdrawing that long-term outlook as well.
Lawrence Culp:
Steve, I think we have admittedly been focused on taking the right actions both the cost, the cash, the balance sheet actions here in the short term in the face of this unprecedented pandemic. We've taken guidance off for the year. We're not putting it back on today, just given the -- given the undo -- uncertainty of it all, right. So I don't -- I don't think we're trying to get out any further than that. I appreciate the question, but I think for purposes of today, we're really just trying to the frame for folks what we're seeing. But that said, however long it takes us to work through this, I think we feel very good about our ability to come out stronger and get back on a positive cash flow growth trajectory.
Steve Tusa:
Got it, got it.
Lawrence Culp:
Carolina, anything you would add to that?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Well, no, I think it's important to acknowledge that by taking out cost now and part of it being structural that gives us sort of as well as mitigating the decrementals that helps improving the incrementals. The outer years, I mean that will depend on the recovery on the industries as well, so that I would say almost impossible to speak to today.
Steve Tusa:
Right. And I guess, how much on that structural cost side. Yeah, go ahead.
Lawrence Culp:
Yeah. No, just one other point I think worth mentioning. I mean I think what we're acknowledging here is that this has played out in March and what we're seeing already in April right, it really is hitting us from a mix perspective hard. Our highest margin businesses are really feeling it here. I would think that on the recovery, we would see -- we would see a swing in the other way. So when we get back and come off a bottom, we should have positive mix effect really across the board, particularly in Aviation and Healthcare. Your second question, Steve it's relative to the cost actions and how much is permanent, how much not permanent?
Steve Tusa:
Yeah, I know -- I guess how much is that going to cost you? I mean like to come up with $2 billion to $3 billion of cost in cash, you know you've done -- you cut your restructuring last year pretty significantly, needed a couple of hundred million in the first quarter. I mean most companies kind of one for one, what -- how much is this stuff going to cost you this year on a cash basis?
Lawrence Culp:
Yeah, I think what we have said previously is we were going to be down off of last year from an expense and from a cash perspective. I think we're probably going to end up more or less in line, right. Keep in mind that some of the cost actions like furloughs don't carry restructuring charge with that, right, because they aren't permanent. So part of what we're trying to do is squeeze out some of the temporary cost, but all the while, if we can -- we can make more structural moves, we want to make sure we've got room to do that, but I'd say right now assume that it will be relatively flat year-on-year, but as Carolina indicated in her remarks, we want to try to do more if we can.
Steve Tusa:
Great. All right, thanks a lot. Best of luck guys.
Lawrence Culp:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
From UBS we have Markus Mittermaier. Please go ahead.
Markus Mittermaier:
Hi, good morning, Larry, Carolina and Steve, let me maybe follow up on the -- on the Aviation...
Lawrence Culp:
Markus, Good morning.
Markus Mittermaier:
Hey, good morning. Within the year, so in your 10-Q, your referenced the IATA numbers of 48% RPK reduction. Is -- and then obviously it flight dollars and RPKs are two different stories. But it's not sort of -- a kind of scenario that you're playing through internally and I'm just trying to get a sense for what that would mean if we look at our sort of like '19 Aviation cash as a baseline sort of like where on that type of scenario, we could end up, particularly looking at sort of what you've mentioned in your prepared remarks that you have, I think, 62% of engine still ahead of shop visit one which arguably are the engines that are on the narrow-bodies coming back first because they're probably the youngest in the fleet. So I'm trying to get a sense for within the year how you're thinking about that.
Lawrence Culp:
Well, I think that given what we highlighted relative to the April experience and the near-term projection of that, there's no question that we're going to continue to see the pressure on cash at Aviation that we've seen here of late, right, and that will be our -- undoubtedly, our biggest headwind.
Markus Mittermaier:
Sure, but you know shop visit, we heard sort of the numbers that you -- that you said, but did you do sort of internal stress tests around where you could end up with or is that just something that you'd said it's too early to comment?
Lawrence Culp:
No, no, no, there is plenty of planning for, again, an extended slowdown here. We're embracing this reality to the fullest extent possible. We are not expecting this to bounce back in the near term, so we flagged in the Q, the IATA numbers, we also reference others. You see it in our own departure data here in April, right. We are way down. That has a direct feed into shop visits, CSA billings and the like. So we're adapting to this new environment. Confident that it will recover, but Markus we're simply not trying to assume that the pressure abates anytime soon, witness the cost and the cash actions that we're taking.
Markus Mittermaier:
Sure. Okay. No, I appreciate that. And maybe as a follow-up quickly on the capital side, do you anticipate any change in the capital support therefore for insurance, in particular, you've referenced that a little bit in the prepared remarks, I think $2 billion is sort of the current number. How are you thinking about that at the moment?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
On the parent support to Capital on the insurance let's --yeah, let's take a step back then. So in '19, the Capital had an infusion from GE of $4 billion right and the estimate for this year is $2 billion on insurance funding and those $2 billion -- they're significantly lower than before. We estimate that the parents will need to roughly in line with this. Some variables are still open and that depends on GE Capital itself right, to GE Capital earnings, the LR2 capital and the assets liquidity level, but those gets about $2 billion as it looks now and I would also say, going forward, it is pertaining your follow-up, we do continue to anticipate further funding and that would be, again, through a combination of GE Capital itself, either asset sales, liquidity and their future earnings and on top of that possible capital contributions from GE.
Markus Mittermaier:
Thank you.
Operator:
From Cowen and Company, we have Gautam Khanna. Please go ahead.
Gautam Khanna:
Yeah. Thank you, good morning guys.
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning.
Gautam Khanna:
Two questions. So at Aviation, it sounds like you guys acknowledge that on the way up, the spares business, the aftermarket, the $15 billion commercial aftermarket business will lag ASM growth because of a younger fleet emerging, a surge of new serviceable material and the like part-outs and obviously lower spares provisioning as the OE rates come down 30% to 50%. I guess first question is, when do you anticipate Aviation free cash flow getting to breakeven? Is it even possible before calendar '22 in that type of environment? And then I have a follow-up.
Lawrence Culp:
I'm not sure we would buy into the premise per se, right. I mean we are cycles business much more so than any other indicator and those cycles are going to have to come back before the passengers do. As you indicated, the age of the fleet will help us over time. There could be some short-term headwinds, but we'll see how that plays out. I think I what we're acknowledging here is that we've been hit from a free cash perspective in our -- kind of our biggest and best cash generator at Aviation, but we're really not getting into much more in terms of the free cash forecast on a multi-year basis. It's just too soon. There's just too many moving pieces for us to be that forward leaning at this point. We wish we could be, it's just -- that's just not where we are.
Gautam Khanna:
Okay. And just to follow up, obviously 2020 is a tough year, we're going to have some cash burn, 2021 unclear, but certainly doesn't seem like in Aviation, we're going to have a strong recovery any -- so as we emerge from this, we're going to have, more leverage. And I guess the question is, you guys have made some asset sales to deleverage, what else besides cost reduction can you do to get the balance sheet, better, faster? Is there any other things that you guys are exploring or that you might explore that's different than what you've done over the past year? Thank you.
Lawrence Culp:
Well, I would -- I'm not sure I would say that there is a lot that is -- please Carolina.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Well, I was going to say that to do things that we have - couple of years.
Lawrence Culp:
Yeah. well, I would just say, at a high level, we are committed to our deleveraging target of less than 2.5 times on the industrial side and I think you've seen us make a lot of progress year-to-date, which I hope underscores the seriousness of that objective, both on the GE side right, I guess $7 billion of debt reductions in the quarter and at Capital I think it's up to $10 billion on a year-to-date basis, given some of the things we did in April. Clearly, it's going to take us a while longer here to hit those targets like, I suspect, most companies. But in terms of doing anything new or different I think we're going to continue to try to run these businesses as best we can, be as disciplined as we can on the capital front, be smart and thoughtful relative to some of the other obligations like pension as you've seen us relative to the plan design, and some of the settlement options. So I'm not sure they're necessarily new plays per se, but we'll continue to look at every -- and every option available to continue to strengthen the company, strengthen the balance sheet, bring those leverage levels down in the face of COVID-19. Carolina I'm sorry, I jumped in. anything to add there?
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
I would just add that -- to the leverage comment also the liquidity that at times like this, you do look at the liquidity and I think it's important to say that we really want to maintain a high level of cash to maximize the flexibility and you have seen the de-risking activities that we have made to sort of push out the debt into further years. So we keep optionality.
Gautam Khanna:
Thank you.
Lawrence Culp:
Yeah. And I -- but I think to that, I mean, it's just important for us all to remember we ended the quarter with $47 billion of liquidity on the back of the BioPharma action and some of the other things that we have done. So we'll continue to be nimble and flexible, mindful of our obligations and our reality.
Operator:
Okay. And from Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe just a question...
Lawrence Culp:
Good morning, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. And Larry, just the first question around the working capital dynamics and the free cash flow at Aviation because I guess there's a lot of industrial businesses where when you get this rapid sales downdraft, you got to working capital cash offset to an extent and then it reverses whenever the sales come back. Could you just update us on how you see the working capital cash impacts of GE Aviation sort of in the early stages now in this downturn, what you would expect to happen to working capital when things recover? And if there's any major difference on the cash dynamics of the Power-by-the-Hour type service relative to the ad hoc spares activity at Aviation.
Lawrence Culp:
Julian, I would say - Yeah, with respect to working capital, I think our primary challenge is really inventory at Aviation, right. We came into this year knowing we were going to have to adjust to a different schedule with the MAX chasing the step up at Airbus with the 320 Neo, while dealing with a good bit of past due on the commercial side both OE and aftermarket while having pretty good military demand to contend with that all gets reset here. And one of the real pressure that we saw from a cash flow perspective was in inventory at Aviation in the quarter. So that's where we're going to be most focused, trying to make sure that we reduce the delinquencies, adjust to the production schedules, to lower aftermarket requirements, while continuing to take care of the military business. That's a complex supply chain undertaking, but the team, as you can imagine, is keenly focused on using some of the lean tools, working with our supply base to make sure that we not only take the cost out of the business, but bring those inventory levels down in light of current demand.
Julian Mitchell:
But should we expect, so I guess, I understand you…
Lawrence Culp:
Your second part of your question, I may have missed that?
Julian Mitchell:
Yeah. So I was trying to understand I guess you know in Aviation, you have the drop in EBITDA in a downturn, then the recovery in EBITDA in the early part of the upturn. I was just trying to understand on working capital, is that cash impact countercyclical or is it pro-cyclical. So you're getting a working capital outflow through the downturn as well as the EBITDA decline?
Lawrence Culp:
I understand the high level dynamic there that you're alluding to. I think right now the simple reality at Aviation, given the pressures in the cross currents is that it is a negative and we need to work to improve it, how much of tailwind could it be kind of at this point in the cycle. I think it's too early to tell. We've got to get on the improvement path first, Julian, to be able to take that potential and deliver it in the financials as a reality.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you. And then, my second question was just around the operational issues. So I think it sounds like the cost out tailwind should build through the year. But in Q1 you had some operational issues in Power on the service side, steep decrementals even with the fixed cost down 16%. Renewables, the margins were down despite a big revenue increase. So I guess, what's the conviction that operational inefficiencies will not swallow up a lot of these cost savings over the balance of the year?
Lawrence Culp:
Well, I think you have to take it business by business, right. If you look at what happened in Power, clearly the push out by customers, because of their own site restrictions and by us on the back of the travel restrictions really pushed a lot of high margin revenue out of the quarter and probably out of the first half. That was on top of some cost pressures of our own making which we need to improve upon. But I think, in Power, I believe that the team is doing a very nice job working off the so-called inheritance taxes, driving real cost improvements. You see that in the head count reductions here in the first quarter. And as we get to a more normalized service environment, I think you'll continue to see that turnaround continue to take flight. I think in Renewables, Julian, it's a different dynamic. Yes, we had phenomenal revenue growth in the quarter, doubled the onshore turbine deliveries here in the U.S., got a little bit of a -- little bit better price, got about a point of price, which is encouraging to see,. But, it is by nature, a very low gross margin business. So the growth is in high-calorie unfortunately. We had a few what we figure one-offs, but they're not one-off until they go away permanently cost and execution issues, all the while the turnarounds in Hydro and Grid are, I think, moving forward, but its early days and they have a number of inheritance taxes that will take a few years to work through. So I think the cost actions that we have talked about today will accelerate those turnaround in Power and Renewables they're dealing with different dynamics in their respective businesses. And that's really why I think I have the confidence to say that you should expect the decremental margin sequentially to improve. The restructuring and the cost actions should present themselves in improved decrementals in the back half, but we've got work to do to make that to make that happen.
Julian Mitchell:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
From Wolfe Research we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks, good morning everyone. And Carolina, great to see you on board. So look we appreciate all the colour in slides and additional colour in the Q. So Larry, is it now a base case that industrial free cash flow will be negative. And maybe you could just address the risk of significant cash burn this year or is there enough on the cost out and the working capital side to maybe mitigate some of that pressure and keep Industrial free cash relatively steady?
Lawrence Culp:
Yeah, I think what -- I think what we're trying to share this morning, Nigel, is that probably three things. One, we've been very -- we've been hit hard and fast here, right, in some of our most important highest margin businesses, be it Aviation and Services particularly Gas Power Services, PDX and Healthcare. We think that that gets worse before it gets better, particularly here in the second quarter with a full effect. It's uncertain as to how things play out from here. We're going to acknowledge that uncertainty, hence the pulling of the guide, but we're not going to sit back and hope that it all passes. We're not going to take the view that we've got a sharp re-bounce coming. Hence, the $2 billion of cost actions we've talked about and the $3 billion of cash actions. We're going to do everything we possibly can to control our destiny here without impairing the long-term value and the long-term trajectory of our company. So we're telling you what we know today. We wish we knew more, but that is really the state of play right now and the approach, the head start that we're taking to it.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, I appreciate that Larry, thanks. And then, I think one of the -- one of the real highlights of the quarter was the underlying strength of the healthcare margins ex -- even ex Biopharma and especially given some of the headwinds you faced in there. So we're seeing strength in small equipments and pressure in big iron. How does that mix look though? When you look at the mix on smaller patient monitoring equipment etc. versus the big, how does that total mix play out to the margins?
Lawrence Culp:
Well, we certainly -- I think the key thing here to keep in mind, Nigel, is the big iron certainly got hit the lower ticket both the lower price points, be it patient monitors, ventilators and the like, certainly got quite a boost. But it's a small part of the business. So there is a little bit of mix there, but not a lot. It was really more a function, frankly, of the team doing a nice job more broadly, recognizing that absent BioPharma we needed to tend to the core cost structure in all its form in the ACS business right. We've been growing Healthcare, Biopharma leading the way. We got some good margin support from that business the last several years. Well now as we think about $17 billion core, the teams really I think put their sights the last couple of quarters on growing that business, growing it with accretive margins, and it's really the cumulative effect that I think you see a bit here in the first quarter before we got hit. They got hit a little bit later, not as much. You'll see more of that unfortunately here in the second quarter. But I think you've got a team who thinks that like many other med-tech companies, they can grow mid -- or low-to-mid single-digits over time and put more digital into the mix. Better cost that should give us the opportunity to grow with accretive margins along the lines of what Kieran laid out in December. And I have no less conviction about their ability to do that today than we did when we made that presentation. Again, mindful that we've got some gyrations here in the near term to deal with.
Nigel Coe:
Right. Okay, thanks Larry. Good luck.
Lawrence Culp:
Thanks, Nigel.
Steve Winoker:
Hey. Thanks, Nigel. We are at the bottom of the hour. So Brandon, we're at the bottom of the hour. So we can just take one more question.
Operator:
Sure. From RBC Capital Markets, we have Deane Dray. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Wishing everyone, good health then add my welcome to Carolina
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Thank you.
Deane Dray:
Good morning. Just two questions, both Aviation. A lot of discussion about structural cost out and Larry, would be interested in how have you balanced the structural cost out in Aviation with reps and balancing the reps in furloughs versus how you might be compromising the ability to bounce back when it does ramp back up. So that's the first question. And then the second one, just to make sure I heard it correctly. Did you quantify the LEAP cancellations in the quarter? I know there is delivery deferrals. Our experience in 2008 was that you did not see many outright engine cancellations because customers would lose that non-refundable deposit. So what's the expectation here in terms of engine cancellations? That's it from me. Thank you.
Lawrence Culp:
Deane, maybe I'll take the first part of that and perhaps Carolina can take the second. I think we are mindful -- ever mindful that there will be a recovery, right. And we want to be well positioned for it. It's going to be very good business for GE for decades. But I think we are really trying to again embrace our reality and take the cost actions in the aftermarket business and more broadly at Aviation mindful that we've got a period of time here of an unknown duration, but it's not going to be measured in months, right, where that business is going to be under considerable pressure. So after a period of time as the aftermarket has grown as it has in the last decade, this is going to give us an opportunity to rethink -- to consolidate all the while mindful of our obligations to customers. The nature of how the footprint has changed, the changes that are probably still coming. So there are a number of variables. It's very much a work in progress as well, but I think we've got line of sight to build on some of the temporary actions to take permanent action to make sure that we have a lean cost structure with adequate capacity to come out of the downturn here well positioned to perform both for customers and for investors.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll now turn it back to Steve Winoker for closing remarks.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Do you want me to answer the question on -- second question.
Steve Winoker:
Yeah, go ahead, Carolina.
Lawrence Culp:
Go ahead, Carolina.
Carolina Dybeck Happe:
Yeah, you were right because I actually mentioned that in my, in my notes -- in our backlog, which was flat sequentially and up 22% versus prior year, that did include roughly 200 LEAP -1B unit orders cancellations in the quarter. What -- I would say on the progress, refunds are very small so far. And on top of that, we also have GECAS, right. So we have GECAS cancelation of 69 aircrafts in April. So that will be reflected in the second quarter revenues and backlog.
Steve Winoker:
Great. Thanks, everybody. I know it's a long call and a busy day. So if you need more, just reach out to us and best of luck.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for joining. And you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Brandon, and I’ll be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Brandon. Good morning and welcome to GE’s fourth quarter 2019 earnings call. I’m joined by our Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Jamie Miller. Before we start, I’d like to remind you that the press release and presentation are available on our website. Note that some of the statements we’re making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. Please note that we will hold an investor call on Wednesday, March 4th to provide more detail on our 2020 outlook. With that, I’ll hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thanks. Good morning, everyone and thank you for Joining us. I’ll begin with an overview on our performance and progress on our execution against our strategic priorities. Jamie will cover the financials in more detail, and then will turn to our expectations for 2020. Starting on slide two, you’ll find a snapshot of our fourth quarter and full year results. Overall, fourth quarter marked a strong close to the year as we met or exceeded our financial targets in 2019. Orders were down 3% organically in the quarter as positive growth in Aviation and Healthcare was more than offset by declines in Power and Renewables. Notably, Aviation’s double-digit orders growth was driven by our newly formed Aeroderivatives JV between GE Power and Baker Hughes, following deconsolidation. Excluding that JV, Aviation’s orders were up 1%. For the year, total Company orders closed up 1% organically. We ended 2019 with backlog of $405 billion, up 15% year-on-year. This comprises equipment of $79 billion, up 2%; and services of $326 billion, up 19%, representing approximately 80% of our backlog. We delivered Industrial segment organic revenue growth of 4.6% in the quarter, and 5.5% for the full year, with all segments posting positive growth. Our service businesses, which represent about half of our industrial revenue in the quarter and the year, continue to be a differentiator with our customers, and a key driver of profitability. Our adjusted Industrial profit margin expanded 410 basis points and 390 basis points organically in the quarter, driven by Aviation and Power. For the year, margins expanded 60 basis points and 10 basis points organically, driven by Power and Healthcare with Aviation margins closing above 20%. We generated Industrial free cash flow of $3.9 billion in the quarter and $2.3 billion for the full year. This came in ahead of our most recent outlook as Power outperformed expectations and we saw continued strength in Aviation. As I reflect on the year, we’ve come a long way since my initial visit as CEO with each of the businesses in late 2018. Aviation and Healthcare are clearly exceptional franchises, delivering profitable growth for the year with runway to go. In Aviation, the business was able to grow free cash flow versus prior year, despite the $1.4 billion of cash headwind from the Boeing 737 MAX grounding. At Healthcare, we operate at the center of precision health. As Kieran and team outlined for many of you in December, growth has and will continue to be driven by innovative solutions in our digital capabilities, resulting in products such as the Revolution Maxima CT scanner, which we launched at RSNA. At Power, we’re proud of our progress in stabilizing Gas Power but we have more to do. In Power portfolio, while there were puts and takes, we gained better line of sight into these businesses. For example, Power Conversion showed signs of operational improvement this year, such as better on-time delivery at their facility in Brazil. In Renewables, our full year results were more mixed. Reflecting on each of the businesses here. In onshore wind and LM, earnings and cash trends improved through 2019, as we delivered on a steep ramp to meet customer demand. In offshore wind, we’re still in investment mode, as we build our global presence and prepare to launch the Haliade-X, next year, the world’s largest wind turbine. The focus in both, grid solutions and hydro is simply on the turnaround. We’re working through complex projects, improving our underwriting framework and focusing on daily execution in both our factories and in our field service organization, as well as taking cost reduction measures. Last week, I was in Paris for operating reviews with each of these businesses, and this reinforced my conviction that we can and will improve our performance in Renewables. In the GE Capital, we delivered positive earnings, driven by better operations, tax and gains as we continue to simplify the GE Capital portfolio. So, while 2019 was year one in our multiyear transformation, I’m encouraged by the evidence of momentum I see across GE. Stepping back from the quarter, we made substantial progress on our priorities in 2019, as outlined on slide three. First on improving our financial position, we move with speed on a number of deleveraging actions, which set us up to achieve our deleveraging targets in 2020. At Industrial, we reduced net debt by $7 billion, ending the year at a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.2, down from 4.8 a year ago. We used the proceeds from our Wabtec and Baker Hughes sales to pay down debt, including a $5 billion debt tender. In 2020, we expect to close BioPharma for about $20 billion of net proceeds and achieve our leverage target of less than 2.5 times. At Capital, we reduced debt by $7 billion, ending 2019 with a debt to equity ratio of 3.9, down from 5.7 in 2018. We expect to close 2020 below our leverage target of less than 4 times. We also completed approximately $12 billion of asset reductions this year, bringing our two-year total to $27 billion, which surpasses our $25 billion target. Our deleveraging progress will allow us to focus more of our time and energy executing on our other priority, which is strengthening our businesses. It’s no secret that power has been our focus over the last year, and across the board, we are improving execution. In Gas Power, we’re building backlog with lower risk as evidenced by zero turnkey projects booked in the fourth quarter. We’re underwriting the business financials with more conservative commercial assumptions with our 2020 equipment plan now 100% in backlog. And we’re rightsizing the business for today’s market through a reduction in fixed costs by 15% in the quarter and 10% in the year versus 2018. Let’s be clear, we’re still on a multiyear journey at Gas Power to deliver a more reliable contribution to GE Industrial’s overall performance. As I’ve shared with you before, even our best businesses can be stronger, including Healthcare where we see opportunity to drive faster Healthcare Systems growth, post the BioPharma sale. This year, Healthcare Systems grew revenue 1% organically, and we expect low to mid-single-digit growth going forward. We’ll do this through targeted increases in R&D, and prioritizing programs with the highest returns as well as better execution on our safety, quality, delivery and cost reduction efforts. For example, during my recent visit to Buc, France, where we produce our Senographe Pristina mammography machines, I met with our teams using lean principles, such as value stream mapping and daily management to improve both our supply chain and our commercial performance. Investing in restructuring has also been an important effort in 2019, especially across Power Renewables and Corporate as we reorient our cost structure for the future and move the center of gravity to our operating businesses. While cash and expense were lower than our original outlook this year due to a mix of timing, attrition and better execution, our expected cost savings remain on track. At Corporate, for example, our core functional costs were down 8% in the year. This was a result of our actions to shrink costs as people, processes and accountability are moved to the segments. The team made solid progress on headcount reduction with roughly 2,500 people this year, resulting in real corporate cost savings. While we’re not finished with restructuring, better margins and returns will also be the result of improved underwriting discipline, stronger execution in both the factory and the field, shifting our business mix more toward services and launching accretive new products. This year, much of our substantial progress was in areas less visible to those of you on the outside of GE. This starts with how we run the Company on a daily basis. We’re in the early days of a lean transformation, developing leaders capable of identifying and solving problems alike, establishing standard work and embracing our values of candor, transparency, and humility. Our strategic conversations are being woven throughout the year and an ongoing sequence of operations, talent and budget reviews. This type of rigor and prioritization is changing how we work. As I travel to our businesses, I see real momentum building, which is only partially evident in the numbers we’re sharing with you today. For example, earlier this month, David Joyce and I were in Ohio at our Aviation Component Service Center, which repairs complex parts used to service our customers’ engines, witnessing lean principles firsthand. The results were impressive, a 14-day improvement in our turnaround time that will positively impact customers and our bottom-line. Moreover, we were so impressed by the operators there, motivated, passionate, experts and using lean tools to improve their daily work. I’m excited to go back. So, in summary, I’m heartened by our progress in 2019. And I do believe we enter the New Year with momentum. There’s still plenty of work to do, but we’re changing the way we work together with a firm eye on delivering better results and ultimately a stronger culture. I just want to take a moment to thank all of those on the GE team listening for their grit, their resilience, and clear sense of ownership, as we’ve driven the change we have over the last year. I’m looking forward to more. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Jamie.
Jamie Miller:
Thanks, Larry. Starting with the fourth quarter summary. Orders were $24.9 billion, down 3% organically, with growth in aviation largely from Aero orders, as well as Healthcare offset by declines in Power and Renewables. Equipment orders were down 10% organically while services were up 6% organically. Consolidated revenue was $26.2 billion, down 1% in the quarter. Industrial segment revenue was up 4.6% organically with equipment revenue up 7% and services revenue up 2% and organic growth in all segments. The biggest drivers of growth were Aviation equipment and services, Renewables equipment, driven by onshore wind and Power services. For the year, Industrial segment revenue was up 5.5% organically. Adjusted Industrial profit margins were 11.3% in the quarter, up 410 basis points reported. The majority of margin accretion was driven by better operational rigor and the non-repeat of about $800 million of charges we took in Gas Power last year, and higher volume in Aviation services. All segments other than Renewables expanded margins in the quarter. For the year, we saw significant margin expansion in Power and Healthcare, the declines in Renewables and Aviation. Fourth quarter net EPS was $0.06, continuing EPS was $0.07, and adjusted EPS was $0.21. Walking from continuing EPS, we had $0.08 from gains and our remaining stake in Baker Hughes, which we measure at fair value each quarter. On restructuring and other items, we incurred $0.03 of charges related to restructuring and M&A cost across our segments, principally in Power. Next, we incurred a $0.07 charge for deal taxes related to the BioPharma transaction, based on preparatory internal restructuring ahead of the expected close in the first quarter. Non-operating pension and other benefit plans were $0.10 in the quarter, which includes about $600 million of additional expense this quarter associated with the pension freeze we announced in October. Excluding these items, adjusted EPS was $0.21 in the fourth quarter. Moving to cash. We generated Industrial free cash flow of $3.9 billion for the quarter, $800 million lower than prior year. Income, depreciation and amortization totaled $1.5 billion, down $200 million net of goodwill impairment versus prior year. Working capital was positive $1.6 billion. Similar to last quarter, accounts receivable was a usage of cash, driven by the impact of the MAX grounding and reductions in long-term receivables and other factoring program levels. The MAX grounding was a negative $400 million working capital cash flow impact in the quarter. All other working capital accounts were a source of cash, driven by lower inventory from higher seasonal volume and cash collections on new orders and project milestones. The supply chain finance transition was a usage of cash in the quarter as anticipated, but less than originally planned. For the year, we completed negotiations with over 80% of the large suppliers and anticipate completing the transition in 2020 with results better than our original outlook. Contract assets were a source of cash of $400 million, in part driven by billings from a CSA contract termination and cash received on converting a customer to a CSA contract at Aviation. Another CFOA was $1.1 billion, which includes restructuring cash usage, accrued discount and allowance payments in Aviation, and non-cash items offset in net income. We also spent about $700 million in gross CapEx, driven by aviation. For the year, industrial free cash flow was $2.3 billion, down $2 billion versus prior year. The most significant driver of the decrease was in working capital due to the MAX grounding and the reduction in certain receivable monetization programs. While there were many puts and takes, the $2.3 billion was ahead of our expectations due to strong performance in Power, which carried forward from the first half, largely driven by collections at Gas and Steam Power, and partially the timing of project disbursements. Lower restructuring of about $800 million, driven by the items Larry mentioned earlier, lower impact from the supply chain finance transition, and Aviation performance were strong cash collections and services, including a fourth quarter parts distribution deal for a legacy engine program and timing on discount and allowance payments helped more than offset the $1.4 billion headwind from the MAX grounding. Moving to liquidity on slide six. We ended the fourth quarter with $17.6 billion of Industrial cash, up approximately $1 billion sequentially, largely driven by positive free cash flow of $3.9 billion. This was offset partially by the $2.5 billion equity contribution at GE Capital, as planned, and the $1 billion intercompany loan repayment where we have about $12 billion left to go in 2020. In line with our ongoing goal to reduce our reliance on short-term funding, average short-term funding was $4.3 billion this quarter, down from $10.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018. And peak intra-quarter short-term funding was $4.7 billion, down from $14.8 billion last year. Overall, our liquidity position remains strong, with over $17 billion in Industrial cash. And we continue to have access to $35 billion in bank lines, and this will step down in 2020 as we complete the Biopharma transaction, and take other deleveraging actions. Next on leverage on slide seven. We are improving our financial position and reducing our leverage. As Larry shared, we reduced net debt by $7 billion, ending the year with leverage of 4.2 times, down from 4.8 times at year-end 2018. This was achieved through the $5 billion debt tender, and the $1.5 billion intercompany loan repayment from GE to GE Capital, and a higher cash balance at year-end. We expect to achieve our Industrial leverage goal of less than 2.5 times net debt to EBITDA in 2020. We also announced comprehensive U.S. pension actions, which will reduce our net debt by $5 billion to $6 billion when completed. As you may recall, as of the third quarter, we were estimating a potential increase to our global pension deficit of approximately $5 billion. Ultimately, this deficit increased by only $900 million versus the prior year. Year-over-year, the key drivers were pressure from the lower discount rate, largely offset by higher year-end asset returns and the completion of the pension freeze and lump sum offerings. We have substantial sources to delever and derisk our balance sheet. To-date, we have received $9 billion of proceeds from our Wabtec and Baker Hughes sales. We are on track to close BioPharma in the first quarter, and we’ll continue to sell down our remaining stake in Baker Hughes in an orderly fashion. Post the BioPharma close, we will execute on the previously announced 2020 deleveraging actions that you see on the right. We’ll contribute $4 billion to $5 billion to our U.S. pension, which we expect will meet the estimated minimum ERISA funding requirements through at least 2022. We will also repay the remaining intercompany loan of $12 billion from GE to GE Capital, which will be used to pay down 2020 GE Capital debt maturities. Finally, we will repay approximately $1 billion of maturing Industrial debt. As we’ve previously said, while our Industrial leverage target will be less than 2.5 times net debt to EBITDA, we also evaluate other measures, including gross debt to EBITDA, and we will ultimately size our deleveraging actions across a range of measures to ensure we are operating the Company with the strong balance sheet. We will evaluate additional potential actions based on their deleveraging impact, economics, risk mitigation and our target capital structure while also monitoring key risks. Over 2019 and 2020, we expect that our total cash deleveraging actions will be in the range of $30 billion. Next on Power. For the quarter, orders of $4.5 billion were down 28% organically. Power portfolio orders were down 55% organically, largely driven by the non-repeat of a large steam equipment order in fourth quarter 2018. Gas Power orders were down 8% organically, [Technical Difficulty] down 49% organically, largely driven by the non-repeat of a large turnkey order in fourth quarter of 2018. We booked 3.7 gigawatts of orders for 22 gas turbines, including three HA units and one aeroderivative unit. Gas Power services orders were up 12% organically with transactional and contractual services up on higher volume, as well as commercial and utilization improvement while upgrades were down. This was the strongest quarter of services growth in 2019. Backlog closed at $85 billion, down 2% sequentially and flat versus prior year. Gas Power, representing $71 billion of segment backlog was up 3%. Revenue of $5.4 billion was up 5% organically with Gas Power revenue up 9% and Power portfolio revenue down 4%. Gas Power shipped 21 gas turbines including 5 H units and 3 aeroderivative units versus 22 turbines in the fourth quarter of 2018, which included 3 H units and 8 aeroderivative units. We helped our customers achieve commercial operation on over 20 units this quarter, which translates to almost 4.5 gigawatts of new power added to the grid. Gas Power services revenue was up, driven by transactional and contractual revenues, which were up on a robust fall outage season and improved commercial performance. Upgrades were down in line with our guidance on continued market dynamics. Operating profit was $302 million, up $1.1 billion, and reported segment margin was 5.6%, an increase of more than 2,000 basis points. This was largely driven by better operational rigor and stronger processes at Gas Power as we did not incur charges related to projects, product and fleet utilization that we experienced in the fourth quarter of 2018, as well as we had improved volume. We also continue to reduce Gas Power fixed costs, which were down 15% versus the prior year. For the year, organic revenue was down 1%, reflecting a decline in Power portfolio, reported segment margin was 2.1%, and free cash flow was negative $1.5 billion. While we have more to do, the team has laid a stable foundation by base lining the business to new market realities and driving operational improvements. Next on Renewable Energy, orders of $4.7 billion were down 10% organically due to the non-repeat of large deals at Hydro and Grid Solutions. Equipment orders were down 7% and services orders were down 22% organically. Onshore Wind orders were flat as international strength offset a decline in North America. And notably, new order pricing in Onshore Wind continues to stabilize. Overall, backlog of $28 billion was flat sequentially, and up 16% year-over-year. Revenue of $4.7 billion was up 4% organically, mainly driven by onshore volume. Total equipment revenue was up 3% organically as Onshore Wind marked record deliveries in the quarter of 1,553 total turbans of repower kits, with roughly two-thirds of these in the U.S. while services revenue was down 22% organically. Operating profit of negative $197 million was down to $176 million, and reported segment margin was negative 4.1%, a contraction of 360 basis points. Positive volume was more than offset by headwinds from project execution, particularly in grid, pricing, tariffs and increased R&D investment. Importantly, onshore was profitable for the third consecutive quarter and full year. Looking at the full year, organic revenue was up 11%, reported segment margin was negative 4.3% and free cash flow was negative $1 billion. Renewables free cash flow was impacted by lower earnings offset by progress collections which were less of a headwind in 2019 than we expected. We anticipate that progress collections will be a headwind in 2020 as we execute on heavy PTC delivery volume that exceeds inbound collections. As Larry noted, Renewables is a key operational focus for the team. At Aviation, orders of $10.7 billion were up 23% organically with equipment orders up 40% organically. This was primarily driven by the Aeroderivatives JV. Total orders excluding Aeroderivatives were up 1% organically, as commercial engine orders were down 33% due to LEAP orders down 63%, while services orders were up 12%. Backlog grew to $273 billion, up 8% sequentially and up 22% versus prior year, primarily driven by long-term service agreements. Revenue of $8.9 billion was up 7% organically, equipment revenue was up 13% organically, driven by sales of 420 LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B units, up 41 from last year, partially offset by CFM units down 74%. We shipped 675 units this quarter, down 11% from prior year. Services revenues were up 3% organically due to commercial services also up 3%, reflecting higher external shop visits and a more favorable mix of shop visits. Total military sales were up 13% organically with 227 engine unit shipments up 32% with growth in development programs. Operating profit of $2.1 billion was up 19%. Organically on improved volumes, price and net productivity offset by negative mix. Reported segment margin of 23% expanded 260 basis points versus the prior year, driven by commercial aftermarket strength. As in prior quarters, this was partially offset by the CFM to LEAP transition, which was a 60 basis-point drag, and the passport engine shipments which were a 70 basis-point drag in the quarter. For the year, organic revenue was up 9%, segment margin was 20.6% and free cash flow was $4.4 billion. Looking at Healthcare, we finished in line with what we shared with you at our Investor Day in December. Orders of $5.9 billion were up 3% organically, equipment orders were up 4%, and services were up 2% organically. On a product line basis, Healthcare Systems orders were up 1% organically driven by growth in Life Care Solutions, services and ultrasound, partially offset by imaging, largely due to market dynamics in China. In the U.S. and Canada, Healthcare Systems was up 1% organically, boosted by solid growth in imaging and ultrasound. Life Sciences orders were up 10% organically. Backlog was $18.5 billion, up 2% sequentially and up 6% versus prior year. Revenue of $5.4 billion was up 1% organically. Healthcare Systems revenue was flat organically with equipment down, offset by services growth. Operating profit of $1.2 billion was flat organically and reported segment margin was 21.9%, up 10 basis points. This was driven by volume and cost productivity offset by tariffs, price and program investments. For the year, organic revenue was up 3% with Healthcare Systems up 1%. Segment margin was 19.5% and free cash flow was $2.5 billion. On GE Capital, continuing operations generated net income of $69 million, up $27 million versus the prior year, excluding the prior year tax reform impact of $128 million. The favorability was driven by lower marks and impairments, and interest expense, partially offset by lower gains, tax benefits and operations. For the year, continuing operations generated adjusted net income of $139 million, up $455 million versus the prior year, excluding the impact of tax reform and the insurance annual premium deficiency tests. Capital ended the quarter with $102 billion of assets excluding liquidity, down $7 billion sequentially, primarily driven by lower GECAS, WCS and EFS assets. GECAS completed the sale of substantially all of the PK AirFinance business and we expect the remaining assets of that to be sold in the first half of 2020. Capital completed asset reductions of approximately $8 billion in the quarter for a total of $12 billion in 2019. Including the $15 billion in 2018, we exceeded the $25 billion asset reduction target previously communicated. In addition, WMC concluded its Chapter 11 case in the quarter. And as of year-end, GE Capital has no further liabilities to WMC. Capital finished the quarter with $19 billion of liquidity, which was up $8 billion sequentially, primarily driven by disposition proceeds of $7 billion and the capital infusion of $2.5 billion, partially offset by debt maturities of $2 billion. We remain focused on derisking GE Capital, including approving its leverage profile. Capital’s debt at year-end was $59 billion, down by $1 billion sequentially, primarily driven by debt maturities, partially offset by the intercompany loan repayment of $1.5 billion. We ended 2019 with the Capital debt-to-equity ratio at 3.9 times. With the anticipated repayment of the intercompany loan, this ratio will increase throughout 2020, but we expect to end 2020 at less than 4 times. Discontinued operations generated a net loss of $63 million up $29 million versus the prior year, driven by WMC, DOJ and other litigation reserves in 2018. As we look to 2020, insurance will complete its annual statutory cash flow test in the first quarter and we also expect lower earnings from GE Capital, primarily driven by lower asset sale gain, a smaller earning asset base and other non-recurring items, but we still expect capital to break even by 2021. Moving to corporate. Adjusted operating costs were $600 million in the quarter, up versus prior year due to higher intercompany profit eliminations and increased remedial costs relating to existing environmental health and safety matters. For the year, adjusted operating costs were $1.7 billion, up $400 million versus the prior year, largely led by the same drivers, as well as the non-repeat of intangible asset sales. This was in line with our revised corporate outlook from the previous quarter. Importantly, our core functional costs were down 8% in the year as we move the center of gravity from corporate to the businesses. And with that, I’ll turn it back over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Jamie, thanks. Before I move to our outlook, I’d like to take a moment to acknowledge our CFO transition announcement since our last earnings call and recognize Jamie’s significant contributions to GE during her tenure. She has been a trusted partner through an unprecedented period of change, including my own transition into the CEO role and your complete refresh of the GE Board, portfolio moves to make GE a more focused industrial Company and foundational shifts in our culture to drive greater rigor and transparency. She has been instrumental in setting and spearheading our deleveraging plan, and she will leave GE in a place where we are set to achieve those deleveraging targets in 2020. I appreciate not only her many contributions across the organization, but also her personal support and partnership. On behalf of all of us, thank you, Jamie. From where I sit today, I’m excited and confident in our efforts to build a stronger and more focused GE. We are planning to provide you a detailed 2020 outlook by segment on our March 4th investor call. But today, I’ll share our expectations for the total Company. So, moving to slide 10, you’ll find our targets on the right hand side. We’re expecting organic growth in the low-single-digit range for Industrial; organic expansion of up to 75 basis points for Industrial operating margins; $0.50 to $0.60 for adjusted EPS; and a range of $2 billion to $4 billion for our Industrial free cash flow. There are a number of key assumptions underpinning our plan again this year. First is the lost cash and earnings from dispositions, most notably BioPharma and Baker Hughes. Our outlook assumes that the BioPharma sale closes in the first quarter, and a reduction of Baker Hughes dividends, in line with the orderly sale of our remaining stake. For reference, in 2019, for the full year, BioPharma generated approximately $1.3 billion in cash and $1.5 billion in profit, while Baker Hughes dividends represented approximately $350 million of cash flow. Second is that our plan is dependent on the 737 MAX’s return to service, which we are planning for mid-2020, in line with Boeing’s commentary. That said, the situation remains fluid. Looking across the segments. Renewables is the key operational focus for us in 2020 as we continue to deliver the onshore wind ramp, invest in offshore and turn around both grid and hydro. This journey to improve earnings and cash at Renewables will take time. We are expecting continued improvement in Power, continued strength in Healthcare and Aviation and lower Capital earnings compared to 2019. And in each business, we are enhancing operational rigor and cost management, which includes continued restructuring while non-operational headwinds continue to diminish. In summary, our results will be a byproduct of delivering on our commitments day-in and day-out in the environment in which we operate. Despite areas of volatility in aggregate, we have a positive trajectory in 2020. Moving to slide 11 where we’ve outlined our priorities for the year. First, solidifying our financial position, building on the actions we took in 2019 to achieve our leverage targets. Second, continuing to strengthen our businesses over the near to medium-term. Critical to this will be operating differently as our lean transformation gains traction. And third, driving long-term profitable growth, which I’m confident that GE team can deliver through innovative and efficient technologies and our global network. Combined, these strengths help us build upon our valuable installed base that keeps us close to our customers, helping solve their most important problems. And with that, let’s take your questions. Steve?
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line, I’d ask everyone in the queue again to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question and a follow-up, so we can get to as many people as possible. Brandon, please open the line.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And from Bank of America, we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
I just want to start out by expressing my thanks to Jamie and best wishes going forward.
Jamie Miller:
Thank you.
Andrew Obin:
So, a couple of questions; I’ll just ask both of them together. So, the first one is Airbus has publicly indicated that they’re making sizable adjustments in payables in 2020. And, we understand engines is one of the biggest components. So, how much, if any of this is baked into your 2020 forecast? And the follow-up question is dynamic in Power Services improving. Nice to see, but what are you doing differently exactly? So, these are my two questions. Thanks.
Larry Culp:
Andrew, as you know well, we have an excellent relationship with Airbus. I was with them just last week, in fact. The guide today relative to Aviation is one we want by design to keep at a higher level. As you can imagine, the primary puts and takes here are really going to be in and around the timing, the assumptions with respect to MAX. But I think, on balance, we have work to do with our friends at Airbus. We’re committed to and will provide more of an update in March.
Jamie Miller:
Yes. And Andrew, as it relates to Airbus, I can’t comment on their aviation payables. What I can tell you, we talked on the third quarter call about the impact of some of our timing of payment of discounts and allowances back to the airframers. And it is across the board, across multiple of our programs, there are puts and takes. But, we do see on that front, some -- we saw tailwinds in 2019. We do see some headwinds in 2020. And that’s baked into how we’re thinking about 2020.
Larry Culp:
Andrew, your second question, if I heard it correctly, was about Power Services?
Andrew Obin:
Correct.
Larry Culp:
I would say we’re doing a number of things. Clearly, within Gas Power, what we see is just better commercial execution in and around the way we are coordinating with our customers there, both their outage schedule and our other CSA applications. I would tell you on the transactional side, what you see the team doing -- or what I saw the team do through the course of the year is just better, more regular call patterns, contacts, point - forward planning with our customers, so that we are in front of the opportunities to sell into their installed base to the extent possible. That commercial work is really coupled with what we’re doing operationally to improve lead times, to improve on-time delivery, so that we not only are well-positioned to deliver on time and within budget scheduled outages, but that we have a better quick response capability. So, I think, as we look at the fourth quarter numbers, it’s good to see the uptick that we did. I think, if you look at the year on balance, clearly suggests there’s more work to do. And I think, team is fully committed to doing that and continuing the exit momentum here through 2020.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
From Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning. I do want to echo Andrew’s comments. Thanks, Jamie. Good luck. You’ll be missed by us. I’m not sure you’ll miss us. But, good luck.
Jamie Miller:
Thanks, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
I’m sure, you won’t miss these calls. That’s for sure. I do want to touch on Aviation. Just first of all, obviously the EBIT performance this quarter was very impressive. I think, it’s a record quarterly performance. Anything unusual to factor in there or to think about? But, more importantly how do we think about the boundaries around the MAX grounding? If production is grounded through the year end, how do we think about the earnings and free cash impact to GE?
Larry Culp:
Nigel, let me -- let us take those in reverse order. You’re exactly right in terms of the strong performance. And I would argue the strong performance for the full year that we saw in Aviation, despite the MAX headwinds. But, as we look forward, I think we’re looking at a more complex situation in and around the MAX. Clearly, priority one here is safety. I think, our friends at Boeing have been crystal clear. We’re going to take the FAA’s lead here, and we’re trying to support both Boeing and the FAA to the fullest extent possible. I think, if you look back, before we look forward, clearly, we were building engines; we were delivering to Boeing at normal rates through 2019. We’re going to see our shipment rates fall roughly half the ‘19 rate in ‘20. Clearly, it’s going to be a bit of a gap here as a result relative to deliveries. And in turn, that drives some of the variability that you see in the guide. I think, from an operating perspective, what we’re really dealing with are three things, right? We are going to have a lower build profile, which in turn will challenge us on the cost side. We need to make sure that we are adjusting our cost structure accordingly but also taking the long view, because this will be a temporary wall, as Boeing has indicated, and we will be ramping up presumably later in the year. So, we want to make sure that not only our teams, but our supply chains are prepared to rebound. With the mid-year return to service, we know we’re going to see fewer spare engine deliveries. Folks were ramping through the back half of last year in preparation for return to service. There’ll be a bit of a wall there as well that will put a little bit of mix pressure on us obviously. And I think, we’ll continue to see fewer new orders, which are a nice source of cash for us, at least until mid-year. But, if that mid-year return to services realized, clearly we’re going to resume deliveries. And that’ll be a positive from a cash perspective in terms of just the AR that will come in, clearly a bit of an offset relative to process -- progress liquidation. So, a number of moving pieces here. We’re going to manage through this as we always do. But, it’s not simply the setup that we saw last year where we were building, shipping, delivering and seeing the receivables build, many more moving pieces as we look ahead to 2020.
Jamie Miller:
And Nigel, with respect to your second question on Aviation EBITDA quarter-over-quarter. We saw strength in our aftermarket businesses at Aviation, so stronger profitability there year-over-year. We also benefited from the install spares mix we had in the quarter. We had some variable cost productivity, and all of that was somewhat offset by higher R&D and a little bit higher SG&A.
Operator:
From RBC Capital Markets, we have Deane Dray.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. And, my congratulations and goodbye to Jamie as well.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning. Thank you, Deane.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Larry, I know we’re probably going to cover this on the March 4 call, but just some bigger picture thoughts on the approach to guidance this year. You had said earlier that you’re really not targeting EPS specifically. It’s more of an outcome and free cash flow was the target. Just remind us how we might be seeing that in action this year. And do you have a contingency number, either implicitly or explicitly as part of this range?
Larry Culp:
Deane, as you indicated at the beginning of that question, we’ll get into a lot more detail on the 4th of March. I think, all we really wanted to do today quite frankly is give everybody our best look at the fourth quarter and the quarter in the context of 2019. We thought that given where we are in preparation for 2020, we could also share earlier this year than we did last year. The broad contours of our outlook for the New Year, you have that. I think that, again, MAX is probably the source of the greatest volatility with the -- or range within that guidance. Clearly, operationally, I alluded earlier to Renewables being a priority, not that we’re done at Power, but I think we’ve got momentum there with clear work to do at Renewables. But, Deane, your point, I think is spot on. We’re encouraged to look forward here and to see a low-single-digit top-line with everything going on. We think we have the prospect for good margin expansion. That leads to the EPS range, but make no mistake. This team -- the businesses are far more focused on sustainable cash flow generation. And that’s I think what you see in the $2 billion to $4 billion range for next year, I think you see evidence of that in the way that we that we finished. But, what you don’t see in terms of the numbers, what we see in all of our interactions with the businesses, I think it’s just a heightened level of discipline upfront when we’re talking about new business, not only in terms of price but frankly, terms, conditions, scope, everything that can go into making a new order, be it for equipment or service, positive and accretive or not. I think, the daily management that we talk about, applies in our factories when we’re building new equipment, in the field when we are installing that same equipment in the context of projects, let alone what we do in terms of driving service quality and productivity. So, when you put all that together in a long cycle business, there are going to be different ups and downs in the course of any one quarter. But again, this team is focused on a much more sustainable, higher level of free cash performance over the long-term.
Deane Dray:
And just as a follow-up, could you expand on the point on Renewables where you’re still in investment mode in wind specifically?
Larry Culp:
Sure. The way I think about Renewables, one segment, but we’ve got, if you will, three different operating priorities in front of us. Our onshore business, clearly is our most mature business in many respects, it’s what drives the segment. We are investing there. But, you look at the growth in onshore wind, last year a very healthy double-digit level, pleased with that. We need to see that convert more directly into margins and cash. The investment reference I was making was really with respect to offshore wind. You’ve seen some big numbers here in the last 90 days relative to some experts’ outlook for offshore wind. This is an area where we are an innovator. We think with Haliade-X, we have an opportunity to bring an exciting technology to market in 2021 that will help improve our overall performance. But in the near-term, that is a -- that’s an earnings and cash drag for us. The third bit of Renewables, again, really is the legacy Alstom JVs in Grid and Hydro. We had a full year of the JV performance consolidated in ‘19. That didn’t help our reported numbers. We’re a little bit behind I think where we would like to be in terms of executing on that turn around, which is why we put that front and center here in 2020. I’ll get into that kin more detail if you like. But, those are the three pieces, the investment call out specifically is in and around offshore wind and the Haliade-X program.
Operator:
From JP Morgan, we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Congrats on the good cash finish at the end of the year. Can you just give us a little bit of color on progress and what kind of impact that ultimately had for 2019? And then also, the $2.1 billion in corporate expense for free cash flow that includes the Baker dividend. So, it’s even higher than that kind of on a core basis. What goes into that number? And then, one more, just on kind of the high level color you guys gave us last March on 2020 and then the 2021 commentary. Is that considered to be stale now, given you’re going to kind of update that in March or how should we think about those kind of -- that kind of high level guide?
Jamie Miller:
Yes. Steve, I’ll answer your progress question, but maybe you can repeat your second question. I didn’t quite catch that.
Steve Tusa:
Yes. Slide 15, the corporate, negative $2.1 billion.
Jamie Miller:
Sorry. Okay. Yes. So, on progress for the year, progress contributed $1.3 billion in working capital inflows. Renewables and Aviation progress and Power was up over the prior year as well. When you look at Corporate, a couple of big drivers there. One is just higher cash tax payments, the other is higher restructuring and corporate. And year-over-year those were the two biggest drivers. When you look out, that starts to temper and come back in line with our expense levels.
Larry Culp:
Steve, I think with respect to the guidance, again, in 30 some days, we’re going to be in front of everybody with an update on how we’re thinking about ‘20 and the future. So, I’m not sure how I would characterize that. We can certainly speak to some of the moving pieces in and around the growth and OMX. [Ph] Again, to the earlier question, we’re going to be very focused on free cash, and how we how we step up in 2020.We think we can do that in Aviation, recognizing some of the dynamics at -- in and around the 737 MAX. I would also say, we know we’re going to be challenged in Renewables. And probably we’ll see them not improve their free cash performance, probably we’ll see a step back in 2020. But, we’ll take you through all the details and give you the freshest, latest, consolidated view when we’re together in early March.
Operator:
From UBS, we have Markus Mittermaier. Please go ahead.
Markus Mittermaier:
Yes. Hi. Good morning, everybody. And Jamie, thanks also from my side. On the free cash flow guide, I appreciate that we get more detail on that on the granularity in March. But, just high level, it looks like Power came out significantly better than what we thought maybe nine months ago. How does that progress in the Power portfolio, Power Conversion turnaround? Sort of how you think about that? What’s the timeline? I think, you’ve taken out significant cost down in the Gas Power side. What should we kind of think about as the jumping off point into 2020 here for Power?
Larry Culp:
Markus, you’re exactly right. I mean, if we look at where we finished versus where we thought we might be back in March, Power, clearly was the major driver of the outperformance. I think, Jamie referenced in her prepared remarks a better than anticipated supply chain finance transition there. We clearly spent less in restructuring as well. And, again, despite the headwind with the MAX, Aviation was able to do a little bit better. You put all that together, I think it suggests better execution more broadly. Again, I’d like to preserve some of the details as we go from ‘19 to ‘20 and for the March update. But, much of what’s happening in Gas Power is underway within the Power portfolio. We’ve got three businesses there, Power Conversion is but one, and call that roughly $1 billion P&L, where they have really grabbed the organization firmly and are driving costs out improvements, better quality, better delivery performance, smarter underwriting. In Power Conversion specifically, we saw a really nice uptick in just the as-sold margins in that business. I give Russell Stokes, who’s jumped in not only looking after Power portfolio, but Power Conversion specifically as CEO, a lot of credit for the progress that they’re making. I think, we do think Power again will be better as a segment next year from a cash perspective, but still not positive.
Markus Mittermaier:
And then, one quick follow-up just for Jamie. You already alluded to the AD&As within aviation. I think, if I remember this right, the tailwind for ‘19 was about $800 million. Would you expect that this reverses completely in 2020 or that’s spread out over maybe more than a year?
Jamie Miller:
So, I mentioned on the third quarter call $800 million of favorability roughly that we had expected in 2019. When we print the numbers, it was actually $500 million. So, we did see some catch-up there, more than we expected in the fourth quarter. And we do expect that to reverse fully in 2020 as a headwind.
Operator:
From Morgan Stanley, we have Josh Pokrzywinski.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just, I guess first question. Larry, you mentioned on -- within the $4 billion -- or $2 billion to $4 billion, the Aviation is kind of the biggest source of volatility or spread within that. I guess, how much of that volatility would you attribute to just timing around the MAX? So, maybe the cumulative number over the next couple of years, doesn’t move around as much but what you’re actually able to capture in 2020 is maybe a bit more volatile?
Larry Culp:
Yes. I think that’s well said, Josh. We don’t want to get ahead of the folks at Boeing, who I know are out here shortly. But the first order of business here in 2020 is a safe return to service. Neither Boeing, nor GE is going to dictate that schedule that the FAA will. So, again, given the build profile, the return to service date, the deliveries thereafter, there are a lot of moving pieces here. And I think we just want to embrace that reality, share with you what we know, and acknowledge that even though we’re putting out a range, we could be in a number of different places within it, depending on how this plays out over time. But going forward, I think, we have real conviction in the LEAP engine. Clearly, Boeing is one of two major customers for that engine. And I think going forward that should be a very healthy relationship and a very strong program for us. How that plays out ‘21 and into the future, we’ll see. Again, we’ll refer to our colleagues at Boeing, our customer at Boeing. But at this point, feel like we’re very much on the right track.
Jamie Miller:
And, Josh, I would just add to that that when you think about some of the factors Larry mentioned earlier, whether it’s unabsorbed overhead or the mix of installs and spares, particularly spares, but also even the timing of the return of the $1.4 billion impact we felt in 2019. As this is now a mid-year reentry into service, you should expect that we’ll feel more headwinds in the first half and more tailwinds in the second half as production rates really normalize. So, maybe that’s the other factor to think about.
Larry Culp:
Yes. But again, Josh, I want to be clear. I think, we just have a lot of respect for what’s happening at Boeing today under Dave’s leadership, right? Clearly, he’ll put safety first, real respect for the primacy of the FAA. Pulling the end on as they did a stop to the line takes a lot of guts. I respect that. I think the focus here couldn’t be clear, right. Recertification, then a return to service, delivering the inventory, then ultimately new production. It is complicated, but I think we see a significant alignment at Boeing and certainly in partnership with us and others in the supply chain. So, it is clearly an unfortunate tragedy that occurred, two tragedies to be specific. But I think going forward, we’ll all hopefully take the lessons here and build a better, stronger industry.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Understood, appreciate that. And then, just quick follow-up on the PTC extension that got announced in December. Does that change the shape of the cash profile over the next year or two at all or still kind of where we would have been otherwise?
Jamie Miller:
I think, it’s a little hard to say. Certainly, we still expect the same level of high PTC deliveries in the U.S. in 2020, which will be a progress collection drag for us as that liquidates. But the PTC extension should help in terms of incremental new orders and some mitigating progress collections there on the inbound. So, we’ll have to see a little bit how that market plays out, but we do expect some goodness there.
Operator:
From Vertical Research, Jeff Sprague.
Jeff Sprague:
Just a couple items. First, back to the MAX. Larry, not to parse words, but you said your shipments to Boeing will be cut roughly in half. I wonder if you’re taking your production down that much. There’s been commentary from Arconic and others that it’s very difficult to mess with these engine production rates. And then secondly on that, returns to service relative to kind of production could be kind of two different items also, given the need to induct what’s in backlog, et cetera. So, if you could just clarify your thinking on both of those, I’d appreciate it.
Larry Culp:
You bet, Jeff. I think, what we’re going to do is, and we’re in the process of doing is bringing our production levels down, mindful of what’s happening at Boeing. But, we’re not bringing that to zero. We very much, if you will, need to keep the lines wet here as we prepare not only for the return to service, but the subsequent ramp. And that’s a function of how we’re going to manage our own teams and in turn suppliers, like Arconic, PCC and the rest. I know there was a comment on somebody’s call relative to this dynamic that we were going to be building more spare engines. That is indeed not the case, just to make sure we’re all on the same page. We will probably build ahead a little bit as we go through the year to be prepared for whatever ramp late this year, early next year awaits us. We want to make sure we are there in lockstep with Boeing. But, we do expect our spare engine deliveries with the 1B to come down this year, just as folks see this pause around the return to service schedule.
Jeff Sprague:
And just unrelated, but this big JV order with Baker, did that come with the significant deposits in the quarter, and how does that impact the Aviation cash flow, if at all?
Jamie Miller:
Is did not? There was no progress on that in the quarter.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you.
Larry Culp:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
From Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. And maybe a question on Capital for a change. So, Jamie, I heard your comments around the leverage level likely rising through this year. You had the $2.5 billion capital infusion in Q4. What are you thinking about further infusions from Industrial to Capital in 2020? And also, any framing you can give the commentary around lower Capital earnings this year? Thank you.
Jamie Miller:
Yes. So, in line with what we said before, we do still expect to have GE to GE Capital parent support in 2020, though it will be significantly lower than it was in 2019. Think about it as roughly in line with the insurance statutory funding. We look at a lot of different elements in our economic capital framework based on the risk profile of what we see in our businesses and what’s required to be held at our statutory insurance companies. So, we do still expect something there. And then, with respect to Capital earnings, the biggest couple of things to think about on 2020 are we’ll -- we just have a smaller asset base. So, we’ll have lower earnings off of a smaller asset base. And then secondly, 2019 benefited from asset sale gains, which as we’ve concluded largely, our asset sale program, those just won’t repeat as we get into 2020. But, as I mentioned before, we still expect Capital to be breakeven, by the time we hit 2021.
Operator:
From Melius Research, we have Scott Davis. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Hi. Good morning.
Larry Culp :
Good morning.
Scott Davis:
I’ll echo prior comments. Jamie, best of luck to you. I’m sure, we’ll see you hopefully down the road.
Larry Culp:
Thank you.
Scott Davis:
In any event, one of the questions I wanted to ask Larry is just that is there somewhat of a potential positive impact, longer term on your LEAP production lines and just the slowdown allowing you time to lean things out, maybe upgrade tooling, maybe just take another look at processes and just figure out how to get that -- get down the cost curve faster. Is that something real or not?
Larry Culp:
Scott, I would submit that it is very real. The team, I think, made real progress in that regard, coming down the cost curve in 2019. But, a slower pace here will help us not only tend to some delinquencies that we have elsewhere, past dues that we have elsewhere across Aviation, but I think, will also allow us to drive more and better lean principles into all of our production operations, LEAP and elsewhere. But, I think, more broadly, Scott, what we’re most pleased by is again, the clarity of the focus. Safety first, recertification in concert with the FAA, a safe return to service, delivery of the inventories and then we’ll ramp at a slower, lower rate. Just having that clarity goes a long way to help us best serve Boeing and our airline customers. Little bit of pause here helps, but just that clarity goes a long ways we think about the next couple of years and all that we can and should do with LEAP.
Operator:
From Gordon Haskett, we have John Inch. Please go ahead.
John Inch:
You guys run all these numbers. So, I’m going to ask, if the MAX has never been grounded, would your $2.3 billion of free cash flow have been $3.7 billion instead? And if the MAX have been producing and flying normally since Jan 1, ‘20, what would your $2 billion to $4 billion of 2020 Industrial guidance? What do you think that would have been in terms of the range?
Jamie Miller:
So, 2019, the 1.4 that we’ve talked about before is the V [ph] to our original expectations. So yes, that would have been higher.
Larry Culp:
I think, with respect to 2020, John, given all the moving pieces we’ve talked about a couple of times here during Q&A, we would probably not want to speculate on what might have been. I think, Jamie gives you a pretty good jumping off point, right? Just taking the 2.3 that we printed, the 1.4 that was held off and then the growth that we would have seen there, was there a deduct [ph] there relative to maybe an offset and service very, very hard to tell. But I think, if you just step back from the MAX, if you look at aviation for 2020, again, I think that the outlook there’s probably flat to up from a free cash perspective, mindful of all the moving pieces here, in and around that. So, again, a strong franchise, a number of other non-MAX-related efforts with real traction delivering real results. We’ll deal with MAX as it comes, but long-term, clearly this is going to be our strongest cash generating business across the portfolio.
Steve Winoker:
Brandon, we’re past the hour. Can we just take one more question, please?
Operator:
Yes. Our last question is from Citi, we have Andrew Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
So, Larry, the Healthcare Day in December, you suggested that Healthcare revenue in Q4 to be flat to slightly down, and you came in just about flat. Have you seen any positive inflection in Healthcare Systems, either in the U.S. or some of the delays you were seeing under in China with the new leadership you have there and as trade issues began to die down? And how does the coronavirus complicate the outlook if at all for your China Healthcare Systems business in 2020?
Larry Culp:
Andy, I would say that it’s probably too early to point to anything in these numbers today within Healthcare that suggests Yihao in China and Everett here in the States have had positive impact yet. But, in terms of everything I have seen, if you will, behind the curtain, the work they're doing to retool their teams, the commercial intensity and discipline they're bringing, I am really optimistic that the commercial execution that has caused us to underperform on a relative basis in 2019 is on its way to being remedied. And we should see improvement as we go through the course of the year. I was with the European team just last week in France, that's a strong team as well, in many respects a more challenging market. But, we need to deliver on that, not just talk about it. With respect to corona -- the coronavirus, obviously we're disheartened and sorry that it's happening. It's a tragedy in its own right. Our priority is on safety clearly of our team really across GE. As you might imagine, our Healthcare team is really in the smack in the middle of this in Wuhan and elsewhere, servicing our equipment, certainly prioritizing new equipment deliveries, particularly to the Wuhan hospitals. We've made a significant donation of patient monitors and ultrasound equipment to help the care providers there. So, there is a lot going on. And fortunately, we can be part of the solution there in China, but itself a real tragedy.
Operator:
Thank you. Mr. Winoker, I’ll turn it back to you for closing remarks.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, everybody. I appreciate you taking the time. I know it’s a busy earnings day, and look forward to following up afterwards. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the General Electric Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Brandon, and I'll be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Brandon. Good morning and welcome to GE's third quarter 2019 earnings call. I'm joined by our Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Jamie Miller. Before we start, I'd like to remind you that the press release presentation and 10-Q are available on our website. Note that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. Please note that we'll be hosting a Healthcare Investor Day on Monday December 2 in conjunction with the RSNA conference in Chicago. Additionally, we provided the upcoming earnings dates in the appendix. With that, I'll hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thanks. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'll start off with some thoughts on our performance and our strategic priorities, then Jamie will cover the quarter in detail before I wrap with our updated outlook. Overall, our third quarter results reflect one more quarter's worth of progress in our multi-year transformation of GE. Orders were down 1% organically year-over-year due to tough comps at Power and lower LEAP orders at Aviation in part due to the 737 MAX grounding. We ended with backlog of $386 billion, up 14% year-over-year. This comprises equipment of $80 billion, up 4%; and services of $306 billion, up 17%. We delivered strong Industrial segment organic revenue growth of 7%, with growth across all businesses, except Power, where Gas Power was up but Power portfolio was down. We also delivered adjusted Industrial operating margin expansion of 130 basis points, driven by Healthcare and better controls at Power relative to last year. While margins are down 130 basis points organically year-to-date, we continue to expect to hit our full year margin expansion target. Industrial free cash flow turned positive, generating $650 million in the quarter, though down $500 million from a year ago. This is ahead of our expectations, largely driven by continued Power stabilization and better-than-expected progress on the supply chain finance transition. We're raising our Industrial free cash flow outlook again today, which I'll cover in more detail later. There were a few significant developments in the quarter, including a number of deleveraging actions that I'll talk to shortly. We ceded majority control of Baker Hughes, which resulted in a pre-tax loss of $8.7 billion. We completed our annual insurance premium deficiency test, resulting in a pre-tax charge of $1 billion, mostly driven by the low interest rate environment. And finally, we completed our annual goodwill test, recognizing a non-cash impairment charge of $740 million at hydro, a renewable energy business we acquired from Alstom. So a number of steps to mitigate risk and clean up the GE portfolio. But make no mistake, we still have work to do. At Power, we're focused on daily management, improving transactional services and cost-out initiatives. At Renewable Energy, we're focused on the significant delivery ramp, turning around hydro and grid and overall better project execution. Across these two businesses as well as corporate, we're investing in restructuring and our expected cost savings remain on track. We're also moving the center of gravity from corporate to the businesses, a notable cultural shift for GE. Moving to slide three. We're doing what we said we would do. In 2019, we've been hyper-focused on our two strategic priorities. First, we're improving GE's financial position and we've taken a number of actions on this front in the quarter. At Industrial, we sold a portion of our Baker Hughes stake for approximately $3 billion of proceeds and we exited Wabtec, bringing in another $1.6 billion. Year-to-date, we've collected $9 billion of proceeds. And at Capital we announced the PK AirFinance sale. We started putting that cash to work, with a $5 billion Industrial debt tender and we recently announced important but difficult changes to our U.S. pension plan that will reduce our Industrial net debt by $4 billion to $6 billion. Second, we're running our businesses better, with an eye toward unlocking the value that clearly exists in GE's portfolio. On that front, at Power, we continue to see signs of stabilization due to better project discipline and execution. Specifically, at Gas Power organic, revenue was up 3% and we hit a major milestone with our hundredth HA turbine order in the quarter. We reduce reported fixed cost 9% year-to-date, as we right-sized the business for our market realities. At Renewable Energy, we're well positioned to capitalize on the energy transition. Orders and revenues were up double digits again, as we delivered approximately 1,400 turbines and repower kits in the quarter. We're seeing strength in international orders and order pricing continues to improve. We signed the first commercial deployment of Haliade-X and our largest Cypress order to-date. At Aviation, we have a strong global franchise with an installed base of nearly 70,000 engines. Service revenues in the quarter were up 7% and we expanded our win rate on aircraft engine selection to 62% on the A320neo. While we're managing the portfolio renewal, we're still on track to deliver 20% segment margins this year. And CFM is working closely with Boeing and our carrier customers to ensure the safe return to service of the 737 MAX. In Healthcare, we're operating at the centre of precision health. We're driving new innovation, enabling our customers to improve patient and operational outcomes. For example, we received the industry's first FDA clearance to embed AI apps on a medical device for triage in our critical care suite this quarter. We also continue to expand margins, which were up 90 basis points organically, driven by both volume and cost productivity. I'd like to take a moment here to mention GE Digital. This business remains within the GE family of growing an important P&L in its own right within corporate, which will serve customers in Power Grid, Oil & Gas and select manufacturing industries. Under the new leadership of Pat Byrne, the team is refining its focus to leverage GE's first-mover investments in industrial software and analytics to be an important contributor to our customers' digital futures. During the quarter, a couple of changes in the way we're operating really began to take root. And while their impact is not yet visible to investors, I'm optimistic that it will be over time. First, our lean transformation is underway. One of the most pleasant surprises for me has been that once I began to talk more about lean, especially after our leadership event in Greenville in June, a flood of people deep in the organization began reaching out, raising their hands, looking to help. I was at our Lynn Massachusetts military engine plant recently and heard operators following an Action Work-Out talk passionately about how lean triggers cultural change and greater accountability. In a different lean event recently at our MR production facility in Florence, South Carolina, teams identified $50 million of potential savings in just four days. And lean goes well beyond manufacturing. GECAS for example is using lean to reduce turnaround time, when transitioning an airplane from one lessor to another, which will save our customers money and improve our on-time delivery. The opportunities at GE are endless, which is why the second change, our strategy reviews, is so important. This quarter, we held sessions with each of our businesses designed to answer two fundamental questions. What game are we playing? And how do we win? These were multiday sessions, not flybys, with robust debates about strategy and priorities, aimed at growing our topline, expanding margins, generating cash and delivering innovation and customer satisfaction for our customers. Over time, our lean Action Work-Outs will be targeted to our strategic objectives and will channel the interest, the enthusiasm and skill that exist within these walls right now, toward driving improved and sustainable results. So, in summary, the hard work continues. And from the inside, I'm seeing the improvements I wanted to see when we started on this path a year ago, improvements that will yield long-term results for all of GE stakeholders. Jamie, I'll turn it over to you.
Jamie Miller:
Thank you, Larry. Starting with the third quarter summary, orders were $22.5 billion, down 5% reported and down 1% organically, with strength in Renewable Energy offset by declines in Power and Aviation. Equipment orders were down 4% organically, while services were up 3%. Consolidated revenue was $23.4 billion flat to prior year, with Industrial segment revenues up 3% reported and 7% organically. The biggest drivers of growth were once again the Renewable Energy onshore wind ramp along with Aviation equipment. Year-to-date, Industrial segment revenues are up 6% organically. Adjusted Industrial profit margins were 10% in the quarter, up 150 basis points reported and 130 basis points organically. The majority of margin accretion was driven by the non-repeat of about $800 million of charges we took in Gas Power last year. We saw organic expansion in Healthcare, but declines in Renewable Energy and Aviation due to negative mix. Net earnings per share was $1.08 loss. As Larry mentioned, we sold 144 million shares of Baker Hughes. And as a result, we no longer hold a majority stake in the company. Beginning this quarter, its historical results are now reported in discontinued operations for all periods. Upon deconsolidations, we recognize an after-tax loss of $8.2 billion or $0.94. We also elected to measure our remaining Baker Hughes investment at fair value, which is recognized in earnings. Continuing EPS was negative $0.15 and adjusted EPS was positive $0.15. Walking from continuing EPS, we had $0.02 of losses, primarily from the unrealized mark-to-market of our remaining Baker Hughes investment and our Wabtec stake exit. On restructuring and other items, we incurred $0.03 of charges related to restructuring and M&A costs across our segments principally at corporate. And next, we incurred a $0.02 charge for the $5 billion debt tender, which reduces pre-tax interest expense by $150 million per year, generating positive economics. Non-operating pension and other benefit plans were $0.05 in the quarter. We also had two more developments, which Larry mentioned earlier. We took an $0.08 non-cash goodwill impairment charge related to Hydro, eliminating all goodwill associated with that business. And as disclosed in our last 10-Q Hydro continues to experience order declines and increased project costs, which resulted in a downward revision of the business's current and projected financial profile. We booked a $0.09 after-tax charge related to our annual insurance premium deficiency test, largely driven by a significant decline in market interest rates. I'll cover this in more detail with GE Capital later Excluding these items, adjusted earnings per share was $0.15 in the third quarter. Moving to cash. Industrial free cash flow was $650 million for the quarter and $500 million lower than prior year. Income, depreciation and amortization totaled $1 billion, up $600 million after adjusting for the non-cash goodwill impairment both in 2019 and 2018. Working capital was negative $1.8 billion primarily driven by accounts receivable, which was impacted by the timing of collections from Boeing related to the 737 MAX and a reduction in certain receivable monetization programs including continued runoff of long-term factoring and the decision to discontinue and shrink higher cost or inefficient factoring programs. Progress payments were a usage of gas as expected, driven by timing of project execution and payment milestones primarily related to onshore wind and Gas Power projects. Contract assets were a source of cash of $200 million as services billings exceeded revenue. Other CFOA was $1.7 billion, which includes the Baker Hughes GE dividend lower-than-expected Aviation allowance and discount payments in 2019 and non-cash items impacting income. We also spent about $500 million in growth CapEx. Year-to-date Industrial free cash flow was negative $1.6 billion, down $1.3 billion due to many of the same pressures we saw in the second quarter including the onshore wind ramp execution and 737 MAX grounding. Overall through the first three quarters, our cash generation is running ahead of our prior year/full year outlook. Larry will speak more to the dynamics here when he addresses our outlook. Lastly, our Healthcare business continues to perform well. Moving to liquidity on slide 6. We ended the second quarter with about $17 billion of Industrial cash. In the third quarter, Industrial free cash flow was $650 million and we paid approximately $100 million in dividends. We received $1.6 billion of cash net of taxes and fees related to the Wabtec exit and $3 billion from Baker Hughes. The impact from the debt tender and other paydowns was $5.5 billion and all other items were $100 million. In line with our ongoing goal to reduce our reliance on short-term funding, average short-term funding was $4.3 billion this quarter, which was flat to the second quarter and down from $11.6 billion in the third quarter of 2018. Peak intra-quarter short-term funding was $4.9 billion down from $13.7 billion last year and also flat to the second quarter. We could potentially see some fluctuation in these borrowing levels in subsequent quarters depending on further disposition timing. Overall, our liquidity position remains strong with $17 billion in Industrial cash and we continued to have access to $35 billion in bank lines. Next on leverage. We are improving our financial position and expect to make significant progress toward our Industrial leverage goal of less than 2.5 times net debt-to-EBITDA by the end of 2020. Third quarter net debt was $49 billion, down from $55 billion at year-end 2018, primarily driven by the $5 billion debt tender. This number excludes increases in the pension deficit due to lower interest rates as accounting rules only require an annual re-measurement of that liability at year-end. However, at the end of the third quarter we estimate that the pre-tax pension deficit would increase by about $6 billion driven by discount rate changes offset by asset return performance and the recently announced pension freeze would partially offset this by about $1 billion. As we've previously said, we have substantial sources to delever and derisk our balance sheet while the low interest rate environment increases amounts required to delever under our original plan, we had planned conservatively and believe that we are on track to achieve our goals inclusive of the impact of lower interest rates on our net debt. We are putting those sources to work through the deleveraging actions, which we prioritize based on risk mitigation, economics, liquidity and achieving our optimal capital structure. It's important to note that while our external Industrial leverage target is net debt-to-EBITDA we also evaluate other measures internally including gross debt-to-EBITDA, and we will ultimately size our deleveraging actions across a range of measures. You can see our current planned deleveraging actions on the right. Beyond the $5 billion debt tender completed, we announced pre-funding the GE pension plan by about $4 billion to $5 billion meeting the estimated minimum ERISA funding requirements for 2021 and 2022 and this will be completed in 2020. In addition, we plan to pay down the full $14 billion of GE Capital intercompany debt of which we paid $500 billion in the quarter and approximately $1 billion of maturing long-term debt. As it relates to the pension lump sum offering in freeze, we may realized $1 billion to $3 billion of non-cash pension deficit reduction depending on the lump sum's participating population and the take-up rate. We continue to evaluate actions in light of the pension deficit pressure to ensure that we reduced our net debt to less than $30 billion as planned while maintaining sound liquidity. Walking through our segments on slide 8 starting with Power. Orders of $3.9 billion were down 30% reported and down 20% organically. Power Portfolio orders were down 54% reported and down 34% organically, largely driven by steam power system down 49% due to a non-repeat of a large nuclear equipment supply contract. Gas Power orders were down 17% reported and 14% organically with equipment down 32% reported, driven by order timing from the first half and services down 6% reported. We booked 3.1 gigawatts of orders for 17 gas turbines including five H units and two aeroderivative units and Gas Power services transactional orders were up across parts and repairs for multi-outage deals. Contractual services were down and upgrades were down in large part due to deal closures timing. Overall, Power backlog closed at $87 billion, which was about flat sequentially and up 4% organically when adjusting for dispositions. Gas Power represents $72 billion of the total Power segment backlog. Revenue of $3.9 billion was down 14% reported and down 3% organically due to Power Portfolio, which was down 37% reported and 15% organically largely driven by steam. Gas Power revenue was up 2% reported and 3% organically. We shipped 12 gas turbines including five H units and three aeroderivative units in the quarter versus 11 gas turbines in the prior year, which included five H units and two aeroderivative units. Gas Power services revenues were down 14% with contractual services down due to outage volume and mix, transactional revenues down on lower F-class outages and upgrades, which were down significantly driven by tough comps and deal timing of convertible upgrade volume. Operating profit was negative $144 million, up $532 million with segment margins of negative 4%. The operating profit improvement is largely due to the non-repeat of Gas Power equipment charges as we continue to stabilize operations, partially offset by lower volume and services productivity. At Gas Power, fixed costs were down 12% in the quarter, as we progress on our two-year $800 million fixed cost reduction target. In all, Power is a multiyear turnaround but we're making progress. Power remains on track to deliver its 2019 outlook of organic revenues down high single-digits and positive segment margins. Next on Renewable Energy. Orders of $5 billion were up 30% reported and up 32% organically with particular strength in international orders, up 94%. Equipment orders were up 66%, while services orders were down 42%. Orders were mainly driven by onshore, up 19% including $500 million of Cypress orders and the offshore EDF deal of $700 million. New order pricing continues to improve reaffirming the positive trend we've observed over 2019. Overall, backlog of $27 billion was up 6% sequentially and up 19% year-over-year. Revenues of $4.4 billion were up 13% reported and 15% organically, mainly driven by onshore volume up 27%. Equipment revenue was up 6% and services revenue was up 62%. Total turbines and repower kit deliveries were approximately 1,400 in the quarter. Operating profit of negative $98 million was down $240 million with segment margins of negative 2%. There was a significant impact year-over-year due to higher losses from consolidating the legacy Alstom JVs and from legacy contracts. We also faced headwinds from pricing, tariffs, project execution and increased R&D investment, partially offset by cost productivity and strong volume. Onshore wind was once again profitable in the quarter and year-to-date. We remain on track to deliver double-digit revenue growth in the full year with a solid plan on deliveries. However, as we said in the second quarter, the addition of Grid Solutions is further dilutive to our margin rate and we expect margins to be negative in 2019. Moving to Aviation. Orders of $8.8 billion were down 4% reported and down 2% organically. Equipment orders were down 27% driven by commercial engine orders, down 54% due to LEAP engine orders down 90%. Services orders were up 15%. Backlog closed at $253 billion, up 4% sequentially and 20% year-over-year, driven primarily by long-term service agreements. Revenue of $8.1 billion was up 8% reported and up 10% organically. Equipment revenue was up 11%, driven by the delivery of 455 LEAP units, up 152 from last year, partially offset by CFM56 units down 75%. We shipped 714 commercial engines this quarter, the same as the third quarter of 2018. Services revenue was up 7% driven by mix and commercial services shop visits and total military sales were up 18%, driven by engine unit shipments, up 16% and growth and development programs. Operating profit of $1.7 billion was up 3% reported on improved price and higher volume offset by negative mix. Segment margins of 21.2% contracted by 110 basis points reported and as in prior quarters this was driven primarily by the CFM to LEAP transition, a 230 basis point drag and Passport engine shipments an 80 basis point drag in the quarter. This was partially offset by military growth and commercial aftermarket strength. In 2019, we're on track to deliver high single-digit organic revenue growth and segment margins of approximately 20%. Looking at Healthcare. Orders of $5.1 billion were up 1% reported and 2% organically. Healthcare equipment orders were flat reported, and up 1% organically, while services were up 3% reported and 4% organically. On a product line basis Healthcare System orders were flat organically, driven by growth in Life Care Solutions, ultrasound and services offset by imaging largely due to China market dynamics and longer sales cycles on larger deals in the U.S. Life Sciences orders were up 10% organically. Overall backlog of $18 billion was down 1% sequentially, but up 5% year-over-year. Revenue of $4.9 billion was up 5% reported and organically. Healthcare Systems revenue was up 3% organically with strong growth in Japan and Latin America, partially offset by pressure in China and the Middle East. Life Sciences was up 14% organically. Operating profit of $974 million was up 13% reported with segment margins of 19.8%, up 150 basis points reported and 90 basis points organically. Operating profit growth was driven by volume cost and productivity, partially offset by inflation, tariffs and R&D. Cost productivity was driven by continued execution on design engineering, sourcing and services productivity. Healthcare is on track to deliver its 2019 outlook, which includes biopharma of mid single-digit organic revenue growth and margin expansion. Moving to GE Capital. Adjusted continuing operations generated earnings of $123 million in the quarter. This excludes the impact of the insurance premium deficiency test. Compared to prior year, continuing operations net income was favorable by $104 million, driven primarily by lower impairments and lower excess interest cost, partially offset by lower gains. Capital ended the quarter with a $109 billion of assets excluding liquidity, which is about flat versus prior quarter. Insurance assets increased due to unrealized gains driven by interest rate decreases and were offset by asset reductions at the WCS and from EFS asset sales. We completed $2 billion of Capital asset reductions in the quarter, totaling $3.6 billion year-to-date and we're more than halfway through the $10 billion full year target with the signing of PK AirFinance. We finished the quarter with $11.8 billion of liquidity, down $800 million from the prior quarter, primarily driven by debt maturities, partially offset by operations and disposition proceeds. We still plan to contribute $4 billion in total to GE Capital in 2019, including $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter. And Capital ended with $60 billion of debt which was down $1 billion versus the prior quarter, primarily driven by debt maturities, offset by the intercompany loan repayment and fair value adjustments. Discontinued operations generated a net loss of $18 million, which was unfavorable year-over-year by $58 million, primarily driven by a prior year investment security gain on sale and an indemnity reserve release. As we look out to the fourth quarter, we expect lower earnings from Capital sequentially, driven by preferred dividend payments and lower asset sale gains. And based on year-to-date performance, we are increasing Capital's 2019 earnings guidance to negative $300 million to negative $100 million from negative $800 million to negative $500 million. On the right-hand side of Slide 9, we provide an update on our run-off insurance portfolio. And as we've said before, insurance is a long-tailed, multi-decade portfolio that our experienced leadership team is actively managing with oversight from our reconstituted Audit Committee, including Leslie Seidman as the Chair. We completed the premium deficiency test in the quarter which resulted in an approximate $1 billion pretax charge or $800 million after-tax earnings. This was primarily driven by lower interest rates which resulted in a lower discount rate and adversely impacted our margin by $1.3 billion and partially offset by projected premium rate increases of $300 million. In line with our normal practice, we will complete our statutory cash flow test in the first quarter of 2020 and similar to the GAAP test we expect an impact from the discount rate that will be based on year-end rates. In summary, we continue to focus on reducing risk across this portfolio. Moving to corporate, adjusted operating costs were $303 million in the quarter, up year-over-year, primarily due to timing of higher-profit eliminations related to spare engine sales to GECAS in anticipation of the MAX return to service. Higher costs also were associated with existing environmental health and safety matters and the non-repeat of gains associated with the sale of certain intangible assets in the third quarter of 2018. We are increasing our 2019 outlook for adjusted corporate costs to negative $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion, largely driven by the higher profit eliminations and increased EH&S reserves. Excluding these items, corporate costs would be in line with our original outlook of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. Gross corporate costs continued to decrease as people processes and accountability are further pushed down to the segments. The corporate team is making steady progress on gross headcount reductions eliminating approximately 7,000 in 2019. And of these about 2,000 of those are real cost out most of which is felt in the segments and the remainder was pushed to the segments. We continue to push control and accountability down to the businesses. And with that I'll turn it back over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Jamie thanks. Moving on to Slide 11, I'll first refer back that the broader dynamics discussed in our original 2019 outlook. Top of mind is Power execution and returning the business to profitability while working through legacy items. At Renewable Energy we're focused on delivering through the PTC cycle while managing a number of legacy projects and nonoperational items. At Aviation and Healthcare, we see continued strength in both franchises, yet we're intensely focused on running them even better. Recall our raised outlook at the half for revenue EPS and free cash flow was largely due to better Power performance and lower restructuring and interest expense. As mentioned earlier, we've deconsolidated Baker Hughes. This lowers our EPS forecast by $0.05 and our restructuring expense forecast by about $200 million with no material change to our outlook for organic growth margin expansion or Industrial free cash flow. To help you digest the changes from our original guidance to our guidance today, we've included a detailed walk in the appendix. Reflecting on three quarters of results, many of the trends highlighted in the second quarter still hold. We see evidence of Power stabilizing, but we're working through a number of nonoperational headwinds there. Aviation is negatively impacted by the MAX grounding and that has largely been offset by timing-related items. Restructuring across our segments is running lower than anticipated. Healthcare is performing well. As it pertains to earnings, we're keeping our EPS outlook at $0.55 to $0.65 even after adjusting for Baker Hughes which is largely due to GE Capital earnings. For Industrial free cash flow, we're raising our full year outlook to breakeven to positive $2 billion. Compared to our original outlook, we've seen Power stabilize, lower restructuring, and interest expense, and better management of headwinds. Since the midyear point, we've progressed on the supply chain finance transition, which has had a minimal impact and Aviation is stronger than expected due to lower allowance and discount payments this year and higher service billings, which has largely offset the year-to-date impact of approximately $1 billion from the 737 MAX grounding. On restructuring our expected cost-out benefits remain unchanged, but cash and expense will be lower due to a mix of timing on certain projects attrition versus severance that allows us to reduce costs and executing some projects at lower cost than initially planned. Next up in our operating rhythm is finalizing our 2020 budgets where we'll continue to evaluate additional restructuring opportunities, but only where the economics make sense. All-in-all, we're encouraged by our progress in this reset year. But it's still early in the multiyear transformation of GE. We have more work to do to deliver our desired level of sustainable and growing free cash flow. Moving to Slide 12, this year we're executing against our priorities and our lean transformation is gaining traction. As we've discussed, we're raising our Industrial free cash flow guidance again. For the remainder of the year, our watch items are largely the same; sustain macro volatility, trade and tariffs, the 737s MAX, and interest rates. To close, I'd like to share some thoughts now being a year into this job. GE is a company with vast industrial strength due to our team, our technology and our global network. In the last four quarters alone, our Industrial segment organic revenue growth has averaged 6%. Our global installed base allows us to be in close daily contact with customers helping them solve important problems that they are facing, services which turn drive half of our revenue. This positions us well especially against the backdrop of an uncertain global economy. When we think about the relationships GE enjoys around the world which are really thanks to the hard work of our team, the leading nature of our technologies, and our uniquely rich history and brand combined with the opportunities we see in the marketplace. Let alone those inside the company to improve results and invest in growth we see considerable value that is within our power to unlock. I'm more optimistic today than I was a year ago that we can deliver it, and I'm confident that in 2020 and in 2021 we'll see meaningfully better performance for GE as a whole. So with that, Steve?
Steve Winoker:
Great. Before we open the line, we have a lot of people in the queue. So limit yourself one question. So we can get to as many as possible. Brandon, please open the line.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And from Bank of America we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. Larry, I'm going to - I know other people will ask different questions but you spent a lot of time talking about renewables. And why is renewables so important? And when are we going to see positive operating margin on renewables and what can you take from renewables for the rest of the business? Thanks.
Larry Culp:
Sure. Andrew, I don't think we tried to talk about renewables more or less than any of our four big Industrial segments. Obviously renewables is an important business. You saw earlier in the week the IEA come out with a forecast that would suggest the renewables space could be a $1 trillion business over the next couple of decades. Significant opportunity from a top line perspective, but as you point out we need to deliver better profitability amidst the growth we're enjoying today let alone growth that's down the road. When I look at the quarter in renewables we saw margins down a little over 2% down 500 basis points year-over-year. You break that down I think what we saw really was a fair bit of encouraging news in terms of the way the team was delivering the step up in volume particularly onshore here in the U.S. and some of the progress that we're making on our cost productivity programs. That said that was fundamentally offset by a number of the legacy issues that we referenced in the prepared remarks and the consolidation of the Alstom JVs. So from there we're really wrestling with the pricing headwinds which I think are again improving but not with today's shipments unfortunately. We saw 100 basis points of pressure due to tariffs and we continue frankly to have opportunities to execute on a number of projects better. So that's why those margins are down. But in terms of those things that we can control so that this can be a positive margin business in line with others in the renewables space particularly in wind I think we over the next several years should be able to demonstrate not only better margins but in turn better cash performance.
Operator:
From JPMorgan we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Steve. good morning.
Steve Tusa:
Just on the corporate and related to Aviation. How much of that increase in corporate did come from spare engines to GECAS? And then would you expect this kind of headwind from MAX to basically flip positive kind of over the year following the MAX coming back to services?
Jamie Miller:
Yeah. So Steve when we talk about the spare engines in the quarter specific as it relates to spares to GECAS the corporate elimination was just under $100 million this quarter and we are seeing spare engine shipments higher in the quarter about half of that now back on Aviation about half of that relates to LEAP. And what we've seen in the second half and we've seen it third quarter we'll continue to see it in the fourth quarter is an acceleration of the LEAP-1B shipments in anticipation of the MAX return to service. And overall, if you look at the levels we're seeing in 2019 for spare engine shipments they are up over 2018, but we expect them to be about flat as we go into 2020.
Larry Culp:
Yeah. And Steve, I think just step back right you all know early in the life of a new engine program we're going to see spares represent roughly 10% of sales. We'll see that at the tail end of the program. I'd say everyone is focused on a safe return to service which puts a little bit more focus there. So that's why you see the step up here in the back half relative to the sales of spares to GECAS and others. Obviously, the benefit we take in Aviation is eliminated at the corporate level so it effectively washes. But that's really what you're seeing. As we think about 2020, I think we're going to try to follow Boeing's lead here when we talk about the full year cash headwinds this year due to MAX that obviously assumes that we don't see a return to service this year. That's just I think a conservative financial planning assumption we took on the last quarterly update. But as you can well appreciate, we're working very closely with Boeing, very closely with our carrier customers to prepare for that safe return to service not only with respect to the planes and the engines that have been delivered, but those that are in inventory or on the production line today.
Operator:
From Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to turn to free cash flow and you talked -- you've disclosed $4.4 billion of working capital headwinds in your free cash year-to-date. How does that reverse into 4Q? We normally see obviously a pickup in shipments so therefore working capital draws down. So how much of that $4.4 billion reverses in 4Q? And then within renewables progress collections that's $0.5 billion down year-to-date and backlog is up materially. So I'm just curious on that dynamic. Why is progress down versus the backlog up?
Jamie Miller:
So the $4.4 billion of working capital this year, let me just talk about a little bit of the background on it, and then as I go I'll talk about what we see really reversing in the fourth quarter. First, we had inventory build year-to-date of $2 billion. That's across renewables, Aviation and Healthcare. That largely shifts and reverses as we head into the fourth quarter with heavy fourth quarter shipment profile. We also in receivables had a $2.4 billion headwind year-to-date in working capital consumption for receivables. Big chunk of that is the 737 MAX. We also have factoring programs coming down for the year too both through the continued runoff of our long-term accounts receivable, some decisions we've made to exit or discontinue higher-cost programs. And some of that is just volume seasonality mix sort of as we've gone through three quarters, which will reverse in the fourth quarter as well. When you look at progress, we are seeing some mixing in progress between renewables and Power. Backlog is up on new orders, but progress upfront is a lower percentage. So, some of that moves around a little bit in the progress line.
Operator:
From RBC Capital Markets, we have Deane Dray. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey, would love to get an update on the Power portfolio, the work-outs on the individual businesses. Looked like steam had a tough quarter. And can you also clarify on hydro? GE was in hydro at one time. They got out of it. You're back in it with Alstom. Is that considered to be core to the renewables portfolio and that would be helpful. Thanks.
Larry Culp:
Sure, sure. Well, let me take those in reverse order, Deane. As you know when we talk about renewables, the bulk of our revenue today comes from our onshore wind business. I think we like the renewables space broadly, and we're really trying to fortify the position we have both in offshore wind, you see that with the step up in R&D the introduction of the Haliade-X, but also other aspects, including hydro where frankly the businesses isn't operating to its full potential today. So it's more of a project-oriented business. It's a small $1 billion [-ish] [ph] P&L within renewables today, where we clearly are paying off those inheritance taxes, which we've referenced through the course of the year. We think hydro can perform in line, if not better than competitors there. But there's work to do. We've got new leadership in place and when we were with the team several weeks ago, reviewing the strategic outlook for the business in Paris, I think they see hydro as an important business relative to our overall renewables offering particularly in certain parts of the world, where hydropower is and/or -- is and will be a part of the energy transition. With respect to the Power portfolio, Deane as you know, we really have three businesses there. We have our steam business, our nuclear business and Power Conversion. Clearly, when you look at the quarter both from an equipment and a services perspective, we saw pressure. I think Jenny went through that in her prepared remarks. Clearly a tough comp in equipment both in steam and nuclear and we are seeing some service pressure both -- in both of those businesses. Some of that is timing-related, some of that it's just where those businesses that hit again in the energy transition. I think we're encouraged by what we see in Power Conversion. I give Russell Stokes here a ton of credit. Russell has jumped in. He's running that business himself in addition to looking after the rest of the portfolio, brought in a new CFO from the outside, Glen Ferguson. There's a lot that's underway as they look to manage that business closer to the customer while taking a good bit of cost out. So there's a lot of work to do here, Deane, in nuclear given the challenges there particularly in places like Japan. We talked about steam power conversion, but I think the team is making good progress. You don't see it so much in these equipment and service numbers, but I think as we go into 2020, you're going to see improved margin and cash performance from these businesses ex the legacy Alstom-related issues.
Operator:
From Melius Research, we have Scott Davis. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Good morning. I know everyone wants to talk about Power and Aerospace since they're the most topical, but I look at Healthcare and just curious through your eyes Larry, you're used to running some businesses with these characteristics of razor-razorblade characteristics. In Healthcare, once you take out Life Sciences, the margin isn't all that exciting really. Historically been kind of a mid-teens margin business that requires a fair amount of capital and R&D etcetera. I mean is there a view yet that you have that, where that margin ought to be and how you get there? And maybe just comments about how historically this is a business that really spent away a lot of the upside, so you'd get fits and starts and operating leverage, but it never really stuck? Is there a focus being placed on getting this business to more sustainable higher profitable levels?
Larry Culp:
You better believe it, Scott. And I think the team understands that we're going to have a different profile in Healthcare when we are on the other side of the biopharma transaction. But that said I think there's a lot of conviction on Kieran and the team's part, myself as well with what we'll have on a go-forward basis, right? Here we have a $17 billion revenue business, smack in the middle of most of that matters in healthcare delivery today. As you point out mid-teens margins; good, I think routines there with respect to driving productivity to offset price; good cash conversion. But there is no way in which this business is optimized right? There's a lot we can do from a lean perspective here. That's why referenced the Florence facility event a few weeks ago. I think that is going to help us improve quality, improve delivery. We should see not only expense, but frankly cash come out of that business and drive better conversion. I think if we can be smarter about where we invest, we don't have to see all that savings be spent away. Clearly, over time you're going to see us remix this business more toward the digital that's why referenced the AI progress with the FDA around the critical care offering. Services is an area where I think we see opportunity as well. So going forward, I think the teams will be very focused on making sure that this is as good a business as any GE business. And given what I know about the space Scott, I seen no reason why this can't be a much stronger more vibrant part of our company. And I hope you'll see that in Chicago, when we have the Investor Day that Steve referenced in conjunction with RSNA.
Operator:
From Vertical Research, we have Jeff Sprague. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning everyone. I wonder if you could just help us with kind of the timing dynamics that were at play here. In other words, thinking about the restructuring numbers coming down, how much of that is kind of a permanent reduction of costs you expected to incur versus kind of stuff shifting to next year? And same for kind of the receivable supply chain program and aero allowances and all that sort of stuff, is there a meaningful year-to-year timing difference there?
Larry Culp:
Jeff I would say on restructuring -- what you're really seeing is sort of three things
Jamie Miller:
Yeah. And Jeff, I'll jump in on the supply chain finance, some of the factoring shifts as well. And maybe I'll talk about it in the context of our guide. We moved our guide from negative 1 to 1 to 0 to 2, and I think the important thing to know kind of foundationally is that the first half trends we've seen are holding. So Power, continued stabilization. We see the benefit from interest. Larry talked about restructuring. But then when you start to think about the $1 billion this quarter, we are seeing a lower impact of the supply chain finance transition than we expected. So more than half of that $1 billion was really due to the absence of that, which is a real positive for us. When you look into 2020, that is something that largely does not repeat or we don't expect it to repeat in terms of the planning cycle. Secondly, we're seeing better performance across a couple of our businesses; so strength in aviation services, coupled with some incrementally better Healthcare performance. And really when you look at the construct, that plus a little bit of the restructuring side, which Larry talked about, that really makes up sort of the bulk of how we think about the 2019 shifting, but you can glean some of the pieces going into 2020.
Larry Culp:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
From Citi we have Andrew Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.
Andrew Kaplowitz :
Good morning, guys.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Hi, Andy.
Larry Culp:
Hi, Andy. Good morning.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Larry, intra-quarter you had said that you were watching Healthcare in China and potential impacts there of the trade war. It seems like the overall business was able to absorb the impact relatively well, with the exception maybe being China imaging. But can you give us more color regarding what you're seeing in China and Healthcare Systems specifically and the outlook for that business?
Larry Culp:
Yes. No, we certainly saw some softness there in the third quarter, Andy. Interestingly, it was more on private side than the public side of the marketplace. I think, we are in turn planning conservatively here for the fourth quarter, just given those trends and some of the uncertainty in China right now around the relatively more short-cycle nature of Healthcare broadly, certainly in our business. We have new leadership on the ground in China that is going. And Yihao Zhang is going through a number of changes in both the organization and some of our go-to-market activities. That'll take a little bit of time, I think, to put us on better competitive footing in country as well. So as we get into 2020, I'm hopeful that regardless of the macro there, we'll see better performance from the imaging business there.
Operator:
From Barclays we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.
Jamie Miller:
Hi. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Just my question on the Power business. It looked like Gas Power lost about $100 million of EBIT in Q3. Just looking at that business in particular on the service piece perhaps, I think Jamie you'd called out Power Services productivity being an issue. So maybe give more color there and how quickly you think you can improve that productivity on the service piece? And following up on Power Portfolio, maybe Larry, is there any kind of time frame around which you think about just an outright exit from pieces of it versus continuously trying to improve what you have?
Jamie Miller:
So, Julian, I'll talk a little bit about Power Services and maybe I'll touch on some of the top line as well as some of the margin elements of it, and I'll break it into the three pieces. So Gas Power services, in the contractual book we actually have been seeing factored fired hours up. So the fleet is running. We're seeing good utilization. But we were impacted in the quarter, both by outage counts being down as well as by different mix of outages. And so the major inspection outages were down as well, which really impacts how we think about what flows through. In this book, we're really focused on cost to serve, meaning outage execution, how do we think about working capital management related to that. And that all brings it down to how do we continue to work closely with our customers, but accrete margin over time. The second piece, the transactional book, we are seeing revenue down. But that is remixing to higher margin. And we see that coming through, as we've refocused the team on price, higher-margin work. In transactional, what is gaining revenue a bit here is some fulfillment issues and operations and we've mentioned some of the operational issues we've had earlier in the year. They continue and that's something that Scott and his team and Larry have really been deep diving and focused on how that execution path really shifts up. Upgrades, we see good demand. The quarter was impacted by deal timing. We do expect some of that to flip in the fourth quarter. But if you pull back on services in total, expect a more positive profile in the fourth quarter. But we still see full year as slightly down which is a little bit different than what we were seeing maybe a couple of quarters ago.
Larry Culp:
I would just say, with respect to the strategic question around Power Portfolio, it's important to remember that when you hear us talk about driving a lean transformation of these businesses, better upfront discipline around which projects we take on, how we price them, how we framed risk, let alone how we execute and how we support them in the aftermarket. But that is not necessarily a strategic call once and for all time, right? I think our view is, we wanted to make sure we had an integrated steam business, both in equipment and services. That integration is underway, let alone the improvements that we've referenced. Our nuclear business is a business where we see the opportunity to expand margins, admittedly in a relatively flattish space. And Power Conversion is a turnaround I'm excited about, given the traction I see and our monthly reviews with Russell in the business. I think over time, those operational improvements will frankly expand the strategic optionality we have in and around each of those businesses, let alone the Power Portfolio as a whole. If and when we do something we'll have that discussion internally before we have it publicly. But in the near term, this team's focused on making sure, we deliver better performance, we have more options, long term. And again, I'm encouraged by the progress that I see.
Operator:
From Deutsche Bank, we have Nicole DeBlase. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes, thanks. Good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
So I just want to talk a little bit about Industrial margins. No change to the full year guidance from zero to 100 bps expansion. Year-to-date we have 130 bps decline. Can we just maybe bridge how you guys get there with respect to the implied 4Q guidance? Thanks.
Jamie Miller:
Yes. So Nicole, I'll just walk through maybe the macro themes on this one. And probably the most important to really look at is the second half non-repeat of the Power charges. So we took well over $1 billion of charges in the second half last year. You saw this in the third quarter performance. We expect it to continue in the fourth quarter, but largely a non-repeat of that, which is a big lift. The second is continued strength in aviation services and the aftermarket there. Military helps but both of those two things really help us. We are seeing the LEAP/Passport impact in the transition but still largely very healthy at Aviation. At Healthcare, we've got biopharma growth and continued cost control at HCS. So that's favorable as well. And then, as you mentioned, we do see renewables negatively impacting our own MAX. And when you start to think about that it's the renewable volume ramp that Larry mentioned and talked about coupled with the Grid and Hydro project execution. But net-net it's really the Power non-repeat and largely Aviation.
Operator:
From Gordon Haskett we have John Inch. Please go ahead.
John Inch:
Thank you.
Jamie Miller:
Hey, John. Good morning.
John Inch:
Hey, Just a question. Rough calculations, Larry, Jamie for Aviation suggesting maybe sitting on a pretty sizable cash advance built up over the years. First does that create kind of future cash headwind? And when will that start? And then second just thinking out loud. If customers start to cancel the MAX not all of them but maybe some, considering you've received sort of large cash advances I think it's like half the final bill for engine production, do you have to give the money back? Or how exactly does that work? Thank you.
Jamie Miller:
Yes. So let me talk a little bit about MAX first and then I'll talk about allowances and discounts on the payable that's built up there. So first on the MAX, we still expect this year to be impacted to the tune of about negative $1.4 billion. When we think about how that comes through in future periods it is really difficult to predict. A lot of this is going to depend on exactly how the reentry into service works. And specifically, logistics, production, scheduling there's just multiple variables here around the ultimate delivery schedule of Boeing planes to customers. So that's maybe -- as you think about 2020 there's multiple scenarios that could play out there. When I really pivot to looking at Aviation free cash flow specifically, for 2019 negative one, four [ph] for the 737, we have seen that in our planning cycle largely offset by two things
Larry Culp:
John, I think that obviously, we didn't come into this year expecting what has played out in that regard. Again our primary focus is to support Boeing and our carrier customers with respect to what they return to service. But with respect to the cash flows in this business, we had over $4 billion last year despite some of the MAX dynamics, as Jamie just outlined. I think we are encouraged by the work the team has done this year. And going forward, given our market leadership position, the installed base, the new engines we have coming online not only commercially, but frankly the growing military business that we have, the opportunities to drive lean at Aviation, particularly with respect to improving inventory turnover and on-time delivery, I just think there's a lot of potential here given the secular tailwinds in Aviation, our position in the space to build off this cash flow base that we delivered last year. And hopefully, we'll deliver this year for many years to come.
Operator:
From Morgan Stanley, we have Josh Pokrzywinski. Please go ahead.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi, good morning everyone.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Hey Josh, good morning.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just want to follow up on the Power order comment Jamie that you expect a lot of that to flip into the fourth quarter. If I recall, there was a pretty big order from Ohio that came out. Is that in the 3Q number, which I guess would imply kind of maybe the smaller order sizes are pretty small in the quarter? So, maybe just size that for us? And then Larry, following up on your comment earlier about an uncertain macro environment, where do you think you're really seeing that in the business? I mean, I think by and large, it's not really apparent in Aviation and Healthcare where maybe you would see a bit more. And Power kind of has its own issues. So maybe talk about how the macro is kind of informing your thinking right now.
Larry Culp:
Josh your -- if we just take those in reverse order, I would say that you're right. With the long-cycle nature of our business right, I think the installed base, the backlog, half the business in the -- half the revenue in the aftermarket, we don't have a tremendous amount of near and short-cycle exposure. But clearly, whether -- pick the business right, pick the newspaper. There's clearly a lot of concern out there as to where the economy is globally and what are we going to be dealing with in 2020. That said, as we look at our position in Aviation, absent the issues we talked about, I think we like a lot of what we see. Clearly both at Power and at renewables, I think what's most relevant is where we are and how we play through the energy transition much more so than any economic pressure. And while there are some dynamics in and around Healthcare that I mentioned earlier say in China, I think by and large, again given the nature of Healthcare, while we have some short-cycle exposure to a degree, it's far less than most businesses. And as we go forward, I think we look at that 7% organic growth in the quarter, the 6% over the last four is evidence that even amidst the economic and political uncertainty that's out, this is a portfolio with secular dynamics around it that on balance should help us weather any storm that may come.
Jamie Miller:
Yes. And Josh on the Power Services and Power overall orders, when I was talking before about some better profile in the fourth quarter, I was talking specifically about services revenues in Power. If I really look at the Gas Power orders, we year-to-date have booked 12.8 gigawatts versus 7.2 gigawatts in the third quarter year-to-date 2018, so really pretty healthy for the year this year already. The Ohio order yes was in 3Q.
Larry Culp:
And remember Josh that we -- I think we said even on the first quarter call, that one of the pleasant surprises is that the order book that we were anticipating, materializing in Power, particularly Gas Power this year looked like it was coming in earlier. So, I think what you see a little bit relative to the year-on-year comp is just that a strong first half, good year-to-date numbers and I think -- we think a year that on balance will come in as anticipated.
Operator:
Thank you. And we will now turn it back to Mr. Winoker for closing remarks.
Steve Winoker:
Great. Thanks everybody for joining the call this morning and we will be available for your questions following. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes the call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the General Electric Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Brandon, and I will be your conference coordinator today [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Brandon. Good morning, and welcome to GE's second quarter 2019 earnings call. I'm joined by our Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Jamie Miller. Before we start, I'd like to remind you that the press release, presentation, supplemental, and 10-Q are available on our investor website. We now file our 10-Q in concert with our earnings, a practice we began in October 2018. Note that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. Please note third quarter earnings will be the morning of Wednesday, October 30. With that, I'll hand over the call to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve, thanks. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'll start with some thoughts on our second quarter performance and our strategic priorities. Then Jamie will cover the quarter in greater detail before I wrap with an overview of our Renewable Energy business and our outlook. Let me begin by reiterating that 2019 remains a reset year for GE. We made some progress in the first quarter and that continued in the second quarter. I'll remind you though that our own actions and the market dynamics may not always follow a straight line, but I will draw your attention to those elements that are most important for GE's results today and tomorrow. First, our year-to-date performance is ahead of our outlook in several areas. We have not planned for perfection meaning we have planned conservatively to cover market and execution risks specifically within our Power business. At the halfway point, our performance at Power is better than expected including better project execution, orders and working capital management. Restructuring spend is also lower. Accordingly, we are raising our outlook for organic growth, adjusted EPS and Industrial free cash flow, which we now expect to be negative $1 billion to positive $1 billion while holding our margin guidance. This is progress, but let me be clear, even with this mid-year increase we recognize that our revised free cash flow range includes negative territory. Over time, as our operational improvements take hold, we continue to expect significantly better cash results. Now looking at quarterly results, we saw top-line strength. Orders were up 4% organically due to strength in Renewable Energy and Oil & gas. We ended the quarter with backlog of $369 billion up 11% year-on-year. This is comprised of equipment of $85 billion up 4%; and services of $312 billion up 13%. Services continue to be our most profitable part of the portfolio and a key differentiator with our customers. We are focused on growing and continuously improving these services across GE, which contributed to just over half of our revenues in the quarter. Industrial segment revenue was up 7% organically driven by growth in each segment except Power. Adjusted Industrial operating margins contracted 300 basis points organically due to significant declines in Renewables, Power and to a lesser extent Aviation, but this is not a surprise. While the make-up may be slightly different in total this is in line and not out of range with our full year margin outlook. We separated Grid Solutions out of Power for better strategic alignment. We moved the higher-margin grid software business into Digital and the lower-margin grid equipment and services business into Renewables. This put the spotlight on the equipment and services business, triggering a $744 million non-cash goodwill impairment and we wrote down the entire goodwill associated with this portion of the business. Jamie will talk to this in more detail in a few minutes. Our adjusted Industrial free cash flow was a negative $1 billion down $1.3 billion from the prior year. This was at the high end of our quarterly outlook largely driven by improved execution at Power, fulfillment timing and better orders at Renewables as well as lower restructuring. Looking to the second half, we need to continue executing in Power and Renewables especially on projects, delivery, cost and service. We are taking actions to delever, and at our upcoming strategy reviews, we will begin to roll-out Hoshin Kanri, our policy deployment the best method I know to bridge strategic intent with operating priorities deeply in a business. And of course, we are monitoring and managing a number of watch items including trade and tariffs the 737 MAX grounding, lower interest rates and our annual insurance premium deficiency and goodwill testing due for the third quarter. Let me cover our two strategic priorities for 2019 in a bit more detail. First with respect to improving our financial position, we monetized part of our 25% ownership in Wabtec, which was oversubscribed delivering $1.8 billion in cash proceeds. We still hold an approximate 12% stake that we will monetize over time. We were also making progress on the Biopharma sale, which will deliver about $20 billion of cash proceeds. At GE Capital, we continue to make the business smaller and simpler completing approximately $2 billion of asset reduction year-to-date and moving $4 billion of aircraft lending receivables to held for sale. We ended the quarter in a solid liquidity position with just under $30 billion of cash at Industrial and Capital combined excluding BHGE. Next on strengthening the businesses, at Power we're seeing early signs of stabilization as we've been focused on improving daily execution. At Gas Power, orders were up 28% organically bringing our total gas turbine units orders to 35 in the first half and we are rightsizing the business for market realities reducing fixed cost by an additional 10% in the quarter. At Renewable Energy orders and revenues were up double-digits, as we execute on our steep production ramp. In the first half, we delivered approximately 1,500 turbines and repower kits and in the second half of the year, we expect to approximately double the number of deliveries. At Aviation, we announced record wins at the Paris Air Show, which contributed to sequential backlog growth of 9%. And as it relates to the 737 MAX, we are working closely with Boeing to actively manage production, while the fleet remains grounded. In Healthcare, profit margins expanded 80 basis points organically. In our first collaboration with Roche, we released the NAVIFY Tumor Board 2.0, which integrates the Tumor Board with our medical image viewer allowing radiologists and medical professionals from other cancer care disciplines to use the same dashboard for patient care. To support our businesses, we need the right combination of direction and leadership. We made a number of new hires including a Digital CEO, a CFO at the Power portfolio and regional Healthcare CEOs in China and the U.S. and Canada. We also appointed Monish Patolawala, the current CFO of Healthcare to lead GE's operational transformation driving operating rigor and lean management across the company. Monish reports directly to me. Russell Stokes decided to jump in and lead the Power Conversion turnaround himself. In addition to looking after the Power portfolio, Russell is bringing a greater operational focus to a business in turnaround mode. And with Monish in his new capacity, we brought more than 100 GE leaders to Greenville for a week-long lean action workout in June. As I've mentioned, the reemergence of lean in all we do represents a major improvement opportunity in manufacturing and throughout the various functions at GE. What does this exactly mean? It's really about the way we are going to work, the most important being hyper-focused on the customer and seeing GE through the customers' eyes, especially regarding our quality and delivery performance. Let me give you a couple of lean examples. In Healthcare, we recently value streamed macro billing cycle looking at the to and the from seeing five days of cash cycle reduction opportunity. And that wouldn't be a permanent end state. With automation and better governance of our billing processes, we've already improved by a day and see an opportunity to take full advantage of the five-day opportunity on the value stream map. At Power, as a direct result of our Greenville workout, we installed one single piece flow line for our HA turbine buckets, successfully connecting 15 machines and six independent processes. Due to this improvement, we've reduced the work-in-progress inventory from approximately 1,200 pieces to 65. Now I know these examples may seem small they are, but I think they're indicative of the opportunities we see across the entire company. In summary, we're on our way, but these are two quarters in what will undoubtedly be a reset year. I'm encouraged cautiously by what we've accomplished, but there's much more to do. Before I hand it over to Jamie to go through the quarter in greater detail, I expect that most of you have seen today's announcement regarding Jamie and our initiation of a search for a new CFO. With the stabilization beginning to take hold, this is the right time for a change. I want to take this opportunity to thank Jamie for her many contributions to the company, both as CFO and previously as a GE business leader. Jamie has been instrumental in working with the Board and me to develop our portfolio strategy, furthering our efforts to make GE a more focused industrial company and spearheading our deleveraging plan during an incredibly challenging period. I'm grateful for her willingness to support us through this transition. Jamie, I'll now turn it over to you.
Jamie Miller:
Thanks, Larry. I'll start with the second quarter summary. Orders were $28.7 billion, down 4% reported, but up 4% organically with strength in equipment, primarily in Renewables and Power. Services orders were up 3% organically, driven principally by Renewables and Oil & Gas. Consolidated revenue was down 1% with Industrial segment revenues flat on a reported basis and up 7% organically. The biggest driver of growth was the renewable onshore wind ramp, which was up 80% in the quarter. Year-to-date, Industrial segment revenues are up 6% organically. Adjusted Industrial profit margins were 7.6% in the quarter, down 260 basis points year-over-year reported and down 300 basis points organically. As Larry mentioned, this is driven by significant declines in Renewables and Power and to a lesser extent Aviation, which I'll cover shortly. Net earnings per share was $0.01 loss, which includes income associated with discontinued operations for GE Capital. And GAAP continuing EPS was negative $0.03 and adjusted EPS was $0.17. In the quarter, the IRS completed their routine audit of our 2012 and 2013 U.S. income tax returns. We had previously reserved for tax uncertainties associated with these filings that were resolved decreasing unrecognized tax benefits. This had a $0.06 impact in continuing earnings and a $0.04 impact in discontinued operations, which were in our 2019 plan though not in the second quarter as the specific timing was unknown. Walking from GAAP continuing EPS of negative $0.03. We had $0.03 of losses, primarily from the partial sale of our Wabtec stake, unrealized mark to market of our remaining equity as well as a held-for-sale mark on BHGE's reciprocating compressors business. On restructuring and other items, we incurred $0.03 of charges principally in corporate and Power. Non-operating pension and other benefit plans were $0.05 in the quarter. Lastly, we took a $0.09 non-cash goodwill impairment charge. As a consequence of separating the two businesses in the Grid Solutions realignment, we were required to reallocate its goodwill based on the relative fair values of the equipment and services business and the software business. The remaining fair value of the Grid Solutions equipment and services business was below its carrying value, resulting in the goodwill impairment and there is no remaining goodwill associated with this business. Excluding these items, adjusted EPS was $0.17 in the second quarter. Moving to cash. Adjusted Industrial free cash flow was a usage of $1 billion for the quarter and $1.3 billion lower than the prior year. Income, depreciation and amortization totaled $1.7 billion, down $400 million after adjusting for the non-cash goodwill impairment. Working capital was negative, primarily driven by accounts receivable, which was impacted by the timing of collections from Boeing related to the 737 MAX and organic sales growth. Inventory was also a usage of cash as we continue to build inventory for higher second half shipments, principally on onshore wind and to a lesser extent Aviation commercial engines. Contract assets were a source of cash of $100 million. Other CFOA was negative $800 million, primarily driven by cash taxes. We also spent about $900 million in growth CapEx or $600 million ex-Baker Hughes GE, which is up slightly, driven by capacity investments in Renewables and Aviation. At the half, free cash flow was negative $2.2 billion, down $800 million. Many of the year-to-date cash flow impacts are the same as what we saw in the second quarter including pressure from the onshore wind ramp and 737 MAX grounding. Overall, in the first half, our cash generation is running ahead of our prior outlook. This is largely attributable to better-than-expected performance at Power due to project execution and working capital improvements, impacting both collections and disbursements as well as lower restructuring cash costs across the segment from a mix of timing, attrition and executing projects at lower costs. As previously discussed, the MAX was originally outside the scope of our planning, and year-to-date it impacted our cash flow by about $600 million or $300 million per quarter. However, for the first half improved performance at Power as well as better aftermarket sales, services billings and timing of discount payments more than outweigh the cash flow pressure at Aviation. In the second half, if the plane remains grounded, we anticipate a negative impact of roughly $400 million per quarter. Looking at the full year, recall our original 2019 guidance for Industrial free cash flow was negative $2 billion to 0. That outlook reflected the potential for substantial variability period-to-period from our large global equipment-focused businesses as well as numerous transition items that are difficult to forecast, such as the supply chain finance program transition, the anticipated settlement of legacy legal matters, restructuring and the watch items Larry mentioned. However, the improvements in Power lower restructuring and higher earnings, along with better visibility at the half, give us confidence to raise our full year industrial free cash flow guidance to negative $1 billion to positive $1 billion. Moving to liquidity, we ended the second quarter with $16.9 billion of Industrial cash excluding Baker Hughes GE. As discussed, Industrial free cash flow was a usage of cash of $1 billion, and we paid approximately $100 million in dividends on the quarter. We received $1.7 billion of cash net of taxes and fees related to the Wabtec transaction, and another $400 million from other dispositions. We contributed $1.5 billion of cash into GE Capital, which was used to fund the WMC settlement with the DOJ. All other items were a source of $400 million, which principally includes the reimbursement of cash owed to us from Wabtec and change in debt. In line with our ongoing goal to reduce reliance on short-term funding, average short-term funding needs declined from about $15 billion in the second quarter of 2018 to about $4 billion this quarter. As stated, our goal is to get to about $5 billion of short-term intra-quarter funding needs while we execute our deleveraging plan. But we potentially could see some fluctuation in these borrowing levels in subsequent 2019 quarters based on disposition timing. As it relates to our leverage targets, we expect to make significant progress toward our leverage goals by the end of 2020, despite the low interest rate environment. We continue to evaluate the best mix of opportunities for deleveraging, considering economics, risk mitigation and optimal capital structure. Next on Power, orders of $4.9 billion were down 22% reported, but up 2% organically. Gas Power orders were up 27% reported with equipment up 2.5 times and services down 13%. We booked 4.6 gigawatts of orders for 16 heavy-duty gas turbines and four aeroderivative units, which represent profitable growth and have lower execution risk. This was the second strong quarter of orders growth for equipment, which contributed to the Gas Power backlog, which is up 5% to $71 billion. That said, we're continuing to restructure for the new gas unit market at 25 to 30 gigawatts per year. Power portfolio orders were down 62% reported and down 32% organically, largely driven by steam power systems with no repeat and a large nuclear steam order in the second quarter of 2018. Power revenue of $4.7 billion was down 25% reported and down 5% organically. Gas Power revenue was down 5% in line with our expectations. We shipped four heavy-duty gas turbines and seven aeroderivative units in the quarter versus seven and five respectively in the second quarter of 2018. We helped our customers achieve commercial operation on over 35 units and added almost 8.5 gigawatts of power to the grid. Gas Power services revenue was down 13% with transactional revenues up, more than offset by contractual services revenues down due in large part to the outage volume and mix in the second quarter. Power portfolio revenue was down 5% organically. Operating profit of $117 million was down 71% reported and segment margins were 2.5% in the quarter, largely due to the impact of dispositions, volume and lower productivity in Power Services. At Gas Power, we're making meaningful progress on our $800 million fixed cost reduction plan over the next two years. Variable cost productivity also continues to be an area of focus, and we reduced the net employee count at Gas Power by 1,000 versus the beginning of the year. We exited nine offices and two warehouses in the first half and we are on track to decrease the number of offices by more than 25% and warehouses by more than one-third by the end of 2020. At the half, orders of $8.6 billion were down 20% reported and up 7% organically. Revenue of $9.3 billion was down 24% reported and down 4% organically. Segment margins were 2.5%. Operating profit of $228 million was down 65% on a reported basis and 61% organically. We are only a few quarters into the Power turnaround, we now expect full year free cash flow to be flat to down instead of just down while we are on track to deliver revenues down high single digits and positive segment margins. Next I'll cover Renewable Energy. And as a reminder the Grid Solutions equipment and services business is now included in Renewables as a result of the realignment and this is reflected in the results we posted today. For reference, Grid Solutions is roughly 25% of Renewables revenues in the quarter. Renewables orders of $3.7 billion were up 35% reported and up 38% organically. Onshore wind orders were up 87% mainly driven by the U.S. up two times. We have observed pricing stabilizing in line with our expectations. Revenue of $3.6 billion was up 26% reported and up 33% organically. Onshore wind sales were up 81% reported, mainly driven by strong equipment volume. The business generated an operating loss of $184 million, down $269 million versus prior year and segment margins were negative 5%. A large part of this decline is due to higher losses in Grid Solutions, hydro and offshore wind as we began fully consolidating these legacy Alstom JVs in the fourth quarter of 2018. In addition, we faced headwinds from higher losses on legacy contracts, challenging onshore project execution in Asia Pacific, increased R&D investment for the Cypress and Haliade-X, tariffs and pricing. This was partially offset by cost productivity and strong volume. Onshore wind in the quarter and year-to-date was profitable. Our top priorities in the second half are quality and delivery. Based on the delivery ramp, we expect Renewables to remain on track for the full year guidance of double-digit revenue organic growth and with the addition of Grid Solutions, we expect the margin rate to be negative in 2019. Next on Aviation where we celebrated 100 years as a business in July, orders of $8.6 billion were down 10% reported and 9% organically. Equipment orders were down 24%, driven by commercial engines down 34% on four significant GEnx orders in the second quarter of 2018. LEAP orders were up 77% on 693 LEAP engines for both Boeing and Airbus airframers. Service orders grew 3%. Additionally backlog grew to $244 billion, up 9% sequentially driven in part by a portion of the $55 billion of wins announced at the Paris Air Show. Revenue of $7.9 billion was up, 5% reported and 6% organically. Equipment revenue grew 5% driven by commercial engine, partially offset by military. We shipped 437 LEAP engines this quarter versus 250 in the second quarter of 2018 and CFM56 engine shipments were down 65%. Military equipment was down due to timing of equipment deliveries. Service revenue grew 5% driven by commercial services. The spares rate was up 2% in the quarter driven by timing and this brings our year-to-date spares rate to 28.5 million per day, up 10% in line with our high single digits low double digits guide for the total year. Operating profit of $1.4 billion was down 6% reported on negative mix, partially offset by improved price. Segment margins of 17.6% contracted by 200 basis points reported in the quarter versus the prior year. The margin rate dilution as in prior quarters was driven primarily by the CFM-to-LEAP transition, which was 80 basis points and the Passport engine shipment, which was another 90 basis points. Additional headwinds included a bad debt charge on one customer in a challenging financial position and additional cost on the GE9X certification delay as David shared with you at the Paris Air Show. There is no change to prior guidance. Looking at the year-to-date Aviation results. Revenue was up 9% organically. Segment margins were 19.2%. We're still on track to deliver high single-digit revenue growth and segment margins of approximately 20% in 2019. Looking at Healthcare. Orders of $5.2 billion were down 2% reported and up 3% organically, driven by equipment orders up 3% and services up 2% with Europe up 5% and China up 9%, partially offset by the U.S. down 2%. On a product line basis Healthcare Systems orders were flat organically driven by growth in ultrasound and services, offset by imaging and Life Care Solutions largely due to U.S. order closure timing. Life Sciences orders were up 12% organically. Revenue of $4.9 billion was down 1% reported and up 4% organically. Healthcare systems revenue was up 1% organically with strong growth in Japan and Latin America, partly offset by pressure in China, the U.S. and the Middle East, particularly in imaging. Life Sciences was up 12% organically. Operating profit of $958 million was up 3% reported and 9% organically and segment margins were 19.4%, up 80 basis points. Organic operating profit growth was driven by volume and cost productivity, partially offset by inflation, tariffs and program investment. Cost productivity was driven by continued execution on design engineering, sourcing and services productivity. Healthcare is on track to deliver the 2019 outlook, which includes BioPharma of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and margin expansion. Moving to Oil & Gas. Baker Hughes GE released its financial results this morning. And Lorenzo and Brian will hold their earnings call with investors today following ours. On GE Capital, continuing operations generated a net loss of $89 million in the quarter, which was favorable versus prior year, primarily due to timing of higher gains including the sale of an EFS equity investment, lower impairments, lower interest costs and the non-repeat of prior year asset and liability management actions, partially offset by lower base earnings due to asset reductions. We ended the quarter with $109 billion of assets, excluding liquidity; up by $2 billion sequentially, driven by insurance investment activities and unrealized gains. GE Capital completed asset reductions of more than $500 million in the second quarter, totaling approximately $2 billion year-to-date and is on track to execute approximately $10 billion of asset reductions in 2019. We also classified $3.6 billion of aircraft lending receivables as held for sale, which is not incremental to the $10 billion target and will offset asset growth and other capital businesses, which have a stronger alignment to support GE Industrial growth. We remain committed to our strategy of shrinking the balance sheet and achieving a debt-to-equity ratio of less than four times by 2020. We finished the quarter with $12.5 billion of liquidity, which was down $3 billion sequentially, primarily driven by debt maturities. Activity in the quarter also included the $1.5 billion WMC payment to the DOJ, offset by the parent equity infusion to GE Capital of $1.5 billion. We still plan to contribute $4 billion in total to GE Capital in 2019, including $2.5 billion in the second half. We ended with $61 billion of debt, which was down by $2 billion sequentially, primarily driven by debt maturities. Discontinued operations earned $238 million, driven mainly by the resolution of the IRS audit for the 2012-2013 years, partially offset by charges related to the WMC bankruptcy and other trailing costs. WMC filed for bankruptcy in April and intends to file a Chapter 11 plan to complete an efficient and orderly resolution. As we look out to second half, we expect lower earnings, driven by lower asset sale gains and lower base earnings. We will also perform our annual insurance premium deficiency testing, which is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2019. At corporate, adjusted operating costs were $462 million, up versus prior year, primarily due to accruals for existing environmental health and safety matters. We are still targeting $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion of net retained corporate costs for the full year. However, we now expect to be at the high end of that range. Today corporate-managed head count stands at about 12,000, down from our starting point of about 26,000 in mid-2018, with more than two-thirds of that reduction to date coming from internal transfers to the businesses and the remainder from outsourcing, restructuring and attrition. The bottom line is, year-to-date we have exited about 1,500 of corporate head count with real cost out, most of which is reflected in the segment results. As we said last quarter, we have a long way to go on rightsizing corporate, but we continue to push control and accountability down to the segments and remain committed to reducing net retained corporate costs to less than $700 million by 2021. With that, I'll turn it back over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Jamie, thanks. Given the recent alignment, we thought it would be helpful to spend a few minutes on Renewable Energy. It's comprised of four different businesses
JoAnna Morris:
Thank you.
Larry Culp:
With that, we'll open the line.
Steve Winoker:
In the interest of fitting as many people as possible into Q&A on a busy earnings day as I know, we’d ask that everyone limit themselves to one questions. With that, Brandon please open the line.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And from Vertical Research, we have Jeff Sprague. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. And best of luck to JoAnna and Jamie. Thanks for all the help over the years.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Jeff.
JoAnna Morris:
Good morning.
Jeff Sprague:
Hi, Larry. Just on cash flow to begin. Just thinking about Power cash flows, right? You've introduced flat in your guidance, right? We went from down to flat to down. I don't know where other people were at, but it was kind of my expectation that down in 2019 meant something equivalent or even worse to what we saw in 2018, negative $3 billion or so. Now that you've introduced flat it actually suggests we were kind of off the mark somewhere else in what we thought the segment cash flows might track at. I just wonder if there's something to be gleaned there? Is maybe Healthcare on the lighter side, or is it Aviation on MAX? And if you do manage a flat result here in Power in 2019 does it still hold that you'd expect Power cash flows to be down in 2020?
Larry Culp:
Jeff, I think what we would say with respect to Power is that we have seen the stabilization that we referenced right with respect to the order book, which has been encouraging the improvements on both expense and cash performance, but we're going to include that potential for the year-on-year number to be flat, but it's still a flat to down range, right? There's still a lot of variability here. To the extent that we are improving the range by $1 billion for the year, I think, it is appropriate to look at that and say that the bulk of that is coming out of the Power performance. There is some benefit from both the lower restructuring activity and the interest of course offset by MAX. But the reason we're maintaining that $2 billion range is because we're -- we still have work to do in Power, right? That's where we have the better part of the risk here. I'd say with respect to the other segments, clearly as we've indicated we're -- all eyes are on MAX, but broadly, we're really not offering up much by way of change in 2019 for the rest of the segments. With respect to 2020, it's probably too early to really comment on any change in trajectory. But what we've said earlier in the year back in March on balance holds.
Operator:
And from JPMorgan we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hi. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Steve. Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
Congrats and best wishes to Jamie and JoAnna as well. On this -- just following up on this free cash flow guidance by segment. What is the kind of -- now that you're halfway through the year roughly the free cash flow for Healthcare embedded in the guide? Is that -- you said down. It was $3 billion last year. Should we think something in kind of that like $2.5 billion range, or is it -- is there kind of a range to put around that to help us with?
Larry Culp:
No. I think with respect to Healthcare for purposes of today Steve no change in the Healthcare outlook from earlier in the year.
Operator:
From Bank of America we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. Good morning. Can you hear me?
Larry Culp:
We can Andrew. Good morning. Go ahead, please.
Andrew Obin:
Good morning. Also want to echo Steve's comments. Best wishes to Jamie and JoAnna. We'll miss you both. Just a question on Aviation. Free cash flow drag on Aviation $400 million. What has gotten worse? And the number seems to be quite a bit higher than what Safran is saying. And just want to confirm that $800 million in the second half is part of the free cash flow guidance.
Jamie Miller:
Yes. So a couple of things. It was $300 million in the second quarter. In the second half, we do see that ramping to $400 million to the -- in each quarter while the plane is grounded. You know, remember LEAP volume is planned to ramp in the second half and that's really what that relates to is just simply that volume uptick in the second half. And then in terms of the overall outlook certainly we are monitoring that. It is embedded in the frame we talked about this morning though of the negative 1 to 1.
Operator:
From Barclays we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Thanks. Good morning. And wish also Jamie and JoAnna all the best. Maybe a question around Renewables. Help us understand, I guess, what kind of magnitude of EBIT loss for the year we should expect after a $400 million loss in the first half. And understood that the number is affected by the insertion of the grid business, which is loss-making. Maybe help us understand how your assumptions for the base renewable division ex-grid have changed if at all since March?
Jamie Miller:
Yes, Julian, it's Jamie. When you look at Renewables in total with Grid included, I would just say -- repeat what I said in my prepared remarks, which is really that we expect our operating margin to be negative for the year. What we had said on legacy Renewables that it would be about breakeven in operating margin. And when you look at that there are certainly things we're monitoring there with respect to onshore wind deliveries, project execution and other elements that Larry and I both talked about on the call. And I think there could be a little bit of pressure to that zero for the full year but we see it hovering right around there.
Operator:
From Melius Research we have Scott Davis. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Jamie Miller:
Hi, Scott
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Scott Davis:
I'll be the fifth person to wish Jamie and JoAnna well but it's been a lot of years.
Jamie Miller:
Thank you.
Scott Davis:
Particularly JoAnna thanks for your help over the years. It's been again a long time. But I wanted to go back to Power if you guys don't mind. And can you help us maybe Larry and Jamie get some granularity around this 2.5% margin number? I mean, what lingering impact of kind of cost of quality -- and I'll throw in like just crappy project execution in there and any other variable that you want to toss in there. Is there such a thing as kind of normalized if you fix this crap margin number that you could point to, or any granularity at all to help us bridge down to that 2.5%? Thanks.
Larry Culp:
Yeah. Scott I think that, if Scott Strazik and his team were here, they would acknowledge fully that there's improvement potential throughout this business, right? And I just look at what I saw last week when we were in Atlanta for the operating review -- the July operating review. It was a stark contrast from a year ago. With respect to new units, it's a competitive space. We're in some challenging geographies. But just in terms of the way the team today is looking at what we call the strike zone in terms of the deals that we want to pursue versus those that we don't, right, we're laying in a global level of standard work. So we've got everybody looking at opportunities through the same lens. They were being sober about cost and contingencies. That's what sets up some of that project execution that you referred to a moment ago. And they're really driving in deeply to get to root cause, to understand where we've had some of these issues, be it around the selection of an EPC in and around the scope or the scheduling that we commit to the terms and conditions of course. And I just think that while there is a good bit still to work through, we're writing a better book of business for the future. Hard to put a basis points contribution over time on that, but I think that's serious because that in turn is what sets up the project execution itself, right? Once we've won, we've got to see things through. And I've been really encouraged by the project review board the team's put in. We're getting in early in the life cycle of these commitments. It's a cross-functional effort really looking at what can go wrong and how do we mitigate, but also what can we improve for the customer or for you the shareholder. It's been helpful in managing handoffs and just getting the better daily management on the ground around the world. Now we have a watch list of projects there, right? Probably -- I think it's about 35 in number of projects where we really have to be in the weeds on a daily basis to get after this. But I think that combination to me gives real encouragement that we can manage this business better with an eye toward margin expansion. Obviously, the real game though is in services and there's just similar opportunities there, right? We're not great in terms of our on-time delivery of parts and service. We're probably somewhere in the 75%, 80% range. Get to root cause, we can fix that. Just the way that we're managing the selling function opportunities there in terms of our responsiveness, the specificity around what we do when we get a bid opportunity from a customer. So I don't think we're ready to say this is worth 50 basis points, this is worth 200. But hopefully that gives you a little bit of a flavor of what we can do to manage the business in addition to the restructuring and the other cost-out efforts to drive margins and better cash over time.
Jamie Miller:
And Scott just to add a little bit to that, in the second quarter, we had just over $100 million of charges related to margin erosion in projects. I think what we're really looking at is few surprises this year. In the second half, certainly, we're monitoring all the different areas, but the operational actions that Larry talked about are really giving us a much deeper level of visibility into the project economics and the timing of our cash and the various actions we have to take. And you probably remember last year in the second half we took significant charges at Power well over $1 billion. And when we look into the second half of this year that's how we'll really measure our own performance is not repeating those and certainly not repeating those to the same degree we had.
Operator:
From Gordon Haskett, we have John Inch. Please go ahead.
John Inch:
Good morning, and congrats JoAnna and Jamie.
Larry Culp:
Hey.
John Inch:
Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, John.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning, John.
John Inch:
Good morning, guys. So I want to put a finer point around the MAX just so that I'm understanding what you're saying. So the flat guide of -- I'm sorry the down one -- I'm sorry, let me take a step back. The MAX is going to drag kind of $1 billion to $1.1 billion. Is that in your number? And then you are sort of flattish number or the up number territory for next year. Does that assume the MAX is flying? And then does Boeing make you whole when it starts to fly? There's a comment that it makes customers or suppliers whole. Does it also make you whole so you get all of this money back in terms of what the drag is?
Jamie Miller :
Yeah, John. The impact I talked about before is in our guide. And when the aircraft starts delivering again on -- when Boeing delivers the airframers, we will get paid for those engines. It's just a delay in cash timing.
Operator:
From Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning. And thanks Jamie and JoAnna. Good luck with your next stage. And I'm glad that JoAnna made a scene on the guide up by the way before she goes on. So on the -- just want to kind of pick up the thread on the MAX here. So I mean Boeing's put out the possibility that rate could come down further from 42. Can you just maybe give us -- I'm not looking here for decimal points, but if you could give us some sense on how that influences the free cash flow outlook and also the margin impact. So I'm assuming that there would be some margin pressure if we have less variable contribution from engine production. So any sense on how that would impact free cash flow and earnings from rate reduction on the MAX? Thank you.
Larry Culp:
Nigel, at this point as I think we've all communicated we're at a lower level of production than we thought we would be at this point in the year for obvious reasons. And all we're really trying to signal with the $400 million of cash pressure here in the back half -- $400 million per quarter is -- what is likely to happen if we do not see a return to service. So we just tried to simplify that without getting into trying to get ahead of Boeing or the FAA or other regulators with respect to when the plane is going to return to service, and again really refraining from any commentary in terms of what could change in terms of our trajectory going into 2020. But clearly we're doing all we can to support Boeing and our carrier customers to facilitate a safe return to service for the MAX.
Operator:
And from RBC Capital Markets we have Deane Dray. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and my congrats to JoAnna and all the best to Jamie. I was hoping to ask a couple of macro questions if I could. You all would be one of the only industrials not to comment or complain about some short cycle pressures and where and how might that be manifested in the results today. Some comments on geographies especially China. It looked like Healthcare did better there. And then true us up on tariffs, $300 million to $500 million was the last update?
Larry Culp:
Dean, I think as we went through the reviews here in July right looking back to the second quarter, looking ahead to the second half there wasn't a lot of finger pointing at short cycle pressure. We certainly saw bits of the business that didn't perform at the top line in the way that we would have liked. I think the Healthcare revenues were a little soft in the U.S. and in China. I think we touched briefly on the gas service business. But I think we really look at that more frankly as a function of our own execution as opposed to short cycle pressure that we can point to. I think we want to be vigilant but clearly going into the second half with the backlog and the visibility that we've referenced a few times here I think we felt good enough to tick up the revenue guide to that mid single digit range. With respect to China, as I mentioned I was there as part of a two-week trip to Asia. I would say that the embrace of GE is strong at the customer level. At the government level, GE is seen as a key partner. We signed as you may have seen; I think an important offshore wind commitment in Guangdong province while we were there. As you would expect we had some key meetings with our Gas Power partner Harbin. I do think having partners is going to be key going forward in China. And I'm glad we're partnered up with Harbin. But the trade tensions there are real. And you don't have to look past today's headlines to have that, I think is a watch item. And how that plays out for our book of business in China, how it plays out more broadly for all of us is a bit unclear. I think we've tried to take in some of that pressure into account in the back half here. But we flagged it just given it's a variable, good bit outside of our control.
Jamie Miller:
And just on China tariffs the impact in the second quarter was $90 million net and really no change. I think we've said $400 million to $500 million of net impact for this year and that's about what we still see, mostly in Healthcare and Renewables.
Deane Dray:
Thanks Steve.
Operator:
From Citi, we have Andrew Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning guys, best of luck, to JoAnn and Jamie.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Obviously, good improvement in execution in Power, but maybe you could talk about the markets, pretty strong orders so far, above your expectations. Is that more a result of your teams getting their act together, or are you seeing some improvement in some of the major regions that you do business regions of North America, Middle East Asia?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think the team is doing a better job, certainly, but again, it's very early right. Whether we're talking about the top line, the bottom-line the cash, I don't want to -- I don't want any of this to sound like we are claiming victory. I think Scott and the team are focused again on a high-quality book of business. The share numbers will be what they are. But I think over time what we want to do is, partner with the right customers, in and around the opportunities that allow us to create value for them. And in turn value for our shareholders over the life cycle of that commitment. Clearly, as you well know the gas business is different region by region. But I would just share briefly. Whether it was in Japan, whether it was in Singapore, obviously in China, on this last trip I visited, a site under construction in Malaysia, there's a lot of keen interest in adding gas capacity as they work through, not only their own underlying economic growth but the energy transition. So, we're bullish on that part of the world, with respect to the gas business. We need to be better in terms of the book of business. We need to be better at project execution back to Scott's question. And then, all of the details inherent in sustaining a good service business over the life cycle of those installations.
Operator:
From Deutsche Bank, we have Nicole DeBlase. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning and best wishes to Jamie and JoAnna. So I guess, I want to focus a little bit on GE Capital. It's been a source of upside versus expectations year-to-date. Do you still expect GE Capital to generate a $500 million to $800 million loss for the full year? And I guess what's driving the delta between one half and two half performance if so?
Jamie Miller:
Yeah. So, GE Capital's continuing net income for the first half was $46 million negative $89 million in the quarter. A lot of that is helped by timing of asset sales. In the second quarter we had EFS gains. The GECAS elements were also more first half loaded. When you look at the quarter in particular lower interest expense, the tax audit resolution those things helped us. And when you pull back and look at first half/second half. I think you're going to still be impacted by timing. So, we are first half loaded on gains. You'll see that come back a bit in second half. In the third quarter we do our loss recognition testing for insurance. In addition, we have our GECAS impairment testing. And the timing of this tax resolution in the second quarter we did not expect that in the second quarter. We really expected that in the second half. So, we still expect to be within that negative $500 million to negative $800 million, absent the LRT probably at the higher end of that. But on the LRT, we'll update you in the third quarter when that's complete.
Operator:
From Credit Suisse, we have John Walsh. Please go ahead.
John Walsh:
Hi. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, John.
JoAnna Morris:
Good morning.
John Walsh:
And I'll echo everyone's well wishes for Jamie and JoAnna. Appreciate the help. So I guess, maybe following off of Andy's question on Power. I mean I think you're clearly making good progress in Power right around what you can control within GE. You've made investments right on H-frame for kind of more baseload power. But as I look at the market, right, I mean battery storage rate is a potential technology disruption there particularly around peakers. And I don't want to go specifically down that road necessarily, but as you're focusing on improving the margins, can you talk to what you're doing to also play offense, particularly within Power whether it's around your R&D investments or other investments the business is making to prepare for technology shifts that will continue to happen over time?
Larry Culp:
Sure, sure. Well, I would say, you probably see it in a few areas, John. I think that clearly as we see the transition from coal and nuclear to other sources -- cleaner more efficient sources, gas is a beneficiary in that, right? So we're just again trying to make sure that we're plugged in country-by-country, customer-by-customer, where we can be part of that. You're right in certain places, gas will be used differently, and that will shape our product road map in terms of the types of upgrades that we offer as well as the new unit NPI journey over time. I'd also say that, with respect to storage and other opportunities that we might have, tucked away ever so discreetly on the Renewables page in the prepared remarks is a reference to hybrids, where what we've done is we've put our solar inverter in our battery storage efforts. And these are small they're nascent, but they really are our opportunities to play here in the renewables, because we see opportunities in and around the wind business, particularly to lever our technology installed base in a broader way. We don't talk a lot about that. We had a good session with the team last week looking at some of the second half investments that we're going to make there, and hopefully over time that will be more significant. But I would really say big picture making sure we've got a best-in-class gas business during the energy transition while continuing to invest largely in our onshore and offshore wind businesses is the way we are positioning ourselves for the energy transition.
Steve Winoker:
Brandon, we have time for just one more given we’re pass the top of the hour. So let’s take our last question please, one more.
Operator:
Our last question from Goldman Sachs we have Joe Ritchie on line. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, and congratulations Jamie, JoAnna.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning, Joe.
Steve Winoker:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
And so, thanks for fitting me in. And just I guess my one question. You guys monetized your stake or a portion of your stake in Wabtec this quarter. Can you just remind us of any of the restrictions or plans that you have for your remaining stake both in Wabtec and for BHGE?
Jamie Miller:
So from a Wabtec perspective, there is a restriction that lasts into this fall. And on the Baker Hughes side, we are free to sell down at anytime those subscriptions that we have at this point. But we continue to expect an orderly process with both.
Operator:
And no further questions at this time. Mr. Winoker, closing remarks?
Steve Winoker:
No. I think we're good and available for calls with our team. Thanks everybody.
Larry Culp:
Thanks everyone.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the General Electric First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Brandon and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Steve Winoker Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Brandon. Good morning, all and welcome to GE’s first quarter 2019 earnings call. I am joined by our Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp and CFO, Jamie Miller. Before we start, I would like to remind you that the press release presentation, supplemental, and 10-Q have been available since earlier today on our investor website. We are pleased to file our 10-Q in concert with our earnings, a practice we began in October with our third quarter earnings report. Please note that some of the statements we are making today are forward looking and are based in our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. With that, I will hand the call over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Steve thanks. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. I will begin with an overview of our first quarter performance and an update on our strategic priorities, Jamie will cover the quarter in greater detail and then we will take you through segment performance and I will wrap up before we go to questions. To start, as we said in March, on our outlook call, 2019 is a reset year for GE as we make decisions and investments that will position us well for the long-term, but we will have near-term impacts on our financial performance, particularly our cash flows. And while we have made some progress in the first quarter delivering results ahead of our own expectations, especially on industrial free cash flows, this is largely due to timing of certain orders and customer collections we expected later in the year. You know as well as I do that one quarter is a data point, not a trend. The guidance we provided a month ago remains unchanged. It’s early in the year and this is one quarter in a multi-year transformation. In total, we are confident in our ability to deliver on our full year expectations that we laid out for you last month during the outlook call. We continue to believe that our 2020 and 2021 financial results will be meaningfully better. With respect to the quarter, orders were up 9% organically due to strength in Power, Aviation and Oil and Gas. Industrial revenue was up 5% organically driven by growth in each segment, except for Power. Industrial operating margins contracted 160 basis points organically driven by declines in Power, Renewable Energy and Aviation. And all of this resulted in adjusted EPS of $0.14 and GAAP continuing EPS of $0.11. Our adjusted industrial free cash flow was a negative $1.2 billion, which was significantly better than our expectations. In Power and Aviation, orders and customer collections came through earlier than we had anticipated. While there were puts and takes, these timing items should balance out over the remainder of 2019. We had higher earnings than we expected and saw some improvements in execution, but again, it’s early. I will talk to this in more detail when I cover our strategic priorities on the next slide. Throughout the remainder of this year, we will make significant investments in our future, such as restructuring, which will be second half loaded. As we said on the outlook call, we have not planned for profession meaning we had built in general contingencies to cover potential shortfalls related to market and execution risks. However, the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX was not included in our original planning and presents a new risk. With respect to the MAX, first let me express our deepest condolences to the families and friends of all those lost in the tragic accidents in Indonesia and Ethiopia. The flying public’s confidence in the safety of flight is the foundation of the aviation industry and we all take that responsibility as paramount. We have a strong partnership with Boeing. We are confident in the 737 MAX aircraft. We are working closely with Boeing through the recertification process. And while the planes are on the ground, we are conducting proactive scheduled maintenance on the engines. The timing of the MAXs’ return to service is uncertain and we are carefully managing our own operations accordingly. Turning to Slide 3, this is a game of interests and we have a long way to go. Yet we made some progress in the first quarter on our two strategic priorities. We’ve taken action to improve our financial position. This includes the announcement of the sale of BioPharma to Danaher, which results in about $20 billion of cash proceeds and gives us flexibility and optionality on our remaining healthcare business as well as the closing of GE Transportation, which delivered $2.9 billion in cash while retaining approximately 25% stake in Wabtec which we intend to monetize over time beginning in the second quarter. At GE Capital, we completed $1 billion of capital asset reductions we paid down $2 billion of external debt and closed the MUFG transaction in the quarter. We have ended the quarter in a strong liquidity position, with more than $30 billion of cash in industrial and capital combined. We still have work to do, but we are committed to running GE on a stronger financial foundation. Our other strategic priority is strengthening the businesses, starting with Power. We are focused on running more empowered, accountable businesses that connect our operating plans to our customer’s successes. The power turnaround is in the early stages as we adjust to market realities, move past some non-operational headwinds and improve our daily execution. In our operating reviews on our plant floors and in our job sites, I see plenty of improvement opportunities and frankly take encouragement from the early signs of progress such as deep assessments that are candid about where we’re winning and losing, a reemergence of lead in all that we do and a conviction on the part of this team that we can improve and we will win. We also booked about 4.5 gigawatts of equipment orders at Gas Power in the quarter. These orders are primarily U.S. contracts at good margins. At Aviation and Healthcare, we are playing offense and we saw continued order strength, with Aviation up 7 and healthcare systems up 5. At Renewable Energy, we are managing through the PTC cycle, which is creating cash headwinds at the business this year. But all the while we continue to invest for the long term with our next generation offshore and onshore wind platforms Haliade-X and Cypress and at capital we continue to de-risk the portfolio. We settled the DoJ FIRREA investigation of WMC for $1.5 billion and completed our insurance statutory cash flow test and $1.9 billion funding in line with our plan. Stepping back, GE has important meaningful businesses operating from positions of strength. We have exceptional technology in which we continue to invest, with a valuable installed base and recurring revenue streams. Today our installed base of approximately 70,000 aircraft engines, 7,000 gas and aero turbines, as well as more than 4 million healthcare systems and 40,000 onshore wind turbines, all of which helped drive over 50% of our revenues, which come from supporting and servicing that installed base. Our digital team continues to unlock the value of that installed base by turning machine data into powerful insights and outcomes for GE businesses and our customers. Our backlog today stands at $374 billion, up 6% from a year ago. We have a global network of close customer relationships and a highly respected brand. Most importantly, we have a capable team showing grit, resilience and commitment. So we made some progress in the quarter, but as I said, it’s just one quarter in a multi-year journey. With better execution and a stronger balance sheet we will continue over time to create sustainable shareholder value. And with that, I’ll hand it over to Jamie to go through the quarter in greater detail.
Jamie Miller:
Thanks, Larry. I will start with the first quarter summary. Note that our results on a continuing basis include transportation and its history, which was reclassified to discontinued operations this quarter. Also our Lighting business is now included in our corporate results. Orders were $26.2 billion, up 1% reported and up 9% organically with strength in equipment orders up 11% organically driven by Power, Healthcare and Oil & Gas. Services orders were up 7% organically driven principally by Aviation. Revenue was down 2% with Industrial segment revenues down 2% on a reported basis and up 5% organically driven by Aviation, Oil & Gas and Healthcare. Both equipment and services revenues were up 5% organically. Adjusted industrial profit margins were 8.8% in the quarter, down 120 basis points year-over-year on a reported basis and down 160 basis points on an organic basis driven by significant declines in Renewables, Aviation and Power. Aviation margins were down primarily from the CFM to LEAP engine transition, margin contraction in the first quarter was in line with our expectation and we continue to expect industrial margin expansion for the year. Net earnings per share, was $0.40 which includes discontinued operations for both GE Capital and Transportation. In the quarter, we recorded a $2.5 billion after-tax gain related to the sale of Transportation to Wabtec, which is included in discontinued operations. GAAP continuing EPS was $0.11 and adjusted EPS was $0.14. I will walk through adjusted EPS on the right hand side of the page. Starting from GAAP continuing EPS of $0.11, we had $0.05 of gains, principally from the sale of ServiceMax, as well as a gain from a favorable resolution on an NBCU tax audit for which we had indemnified Comcast. On restructuring and other items, we incurred $0.03 of charges, principally in corporate and power as we continue our cost out actions for those segments in line with our stated plan. Non-operating pension and other benefit plans were a drag of $0.05 in the quarter. And lastly, during the quarter, final regulations on the US tax reform transition tax were issued, which resulted in an update to our computation of transition tax and tax impacts for 2017 and 2018. This resulted in a $0.01 negative impact in Industrial and a $0.01 favorable impact in GE Capital, offsetting at the Company level. Excluding these items, adjusted EPS was $0.14 in the quarter. Moving to cash, as Larry mentioned, adjusted industrial free cash flow was a usage of $1.2 billion for the quarter, but $500 million better than the prior year. Income, depreciation and amortization totaled $2.1 billion, up $300 million as expected working capital was negative for the quarter as we built inventory for second half volume largely in renewables onshore wind and we saw progress collection reductions in renewables and gas power as we executed on backlog. Contract assets were a cash usage of $600 million largely in gas power equipment projects. In addition, renewables deferred inventory build was higher due to delays in onshore wind unit shipments. Other CFOA was negative, primarily driven by annual employee bonuses and other compensation. We also spent about $900 million in gross CapEx or $600 million ex-Baker Hughes GE, which is down $100 million versus prior year. Overall, we are encouraged by strong cash performance in Aviation and Power, but we continue to manage through the renewables PTC cycle volume execution, power variability, restructuring, long term receivables factoring run-off and other items. And before we move on, let me provide more color on the quarter and the outlook for the industrial free cash flow. First, timing was the biggest driver of our significantly better than planned cash flows this quarter. With our large equipment focused businesses, there can be substantial variability quarter-to-quarter on factors ranging from orders timing to project execution milestones and related collections and disbursements. In the first quarter at Power and Aviation, orders and customer collections came in earlier than we expected while disbursements were lower. We anticipate these timing items will largely balance out over the year in line with our full year outlook. Second, we saw favorability in restructuring NBD this quarter and we expect that the supply chain finance transition will begin to impact free cash flow in the second half. In addition, we saw improved execution in the quarter as our teams are working hard to drive results. Third, looking forward, our 2019 guidance for industrial free cash flow is unchanged in the range of negative 2 to 0. We are evaluating further opportunities to de-risk the balance sheet and believe that we have planned appropriately for various market and execution risks that could arise across a number of our businesses, including Renewables and Power. As Larry noted earlier, the Boeing 737 MAX was outside the scope of our original planning. Specifically on the MAX, we have not changed our engine production plans at this time, but the timing of cash flows may be impacted by collections of receivables from Boeing depending on when aircraft deliveries resume. We will continue to adjust our operational management as this situation evolves. Moving to liquidity, we ended the first quarter with $17 billion of industrial cash excluding Baker Hughes GE. As we discussed, industrial free cash flow was a usage of cash and we paid approximately $100 million in dividends. We received $2.9 billion of cash from the transportation merger with Wabtec, other business dispositions and transfers netted to another $200 million. All other items were a usage of $1.5 billion of cash, which principally includes free cash flow and discontinued operations for transportation up to the close of the transaction, cash transferred with the disposition and change in debt. In line with our ongoing goal to reduce reliance on short-term funding, average short-term funding needs declined from $17 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to about $4 billion in the first quarter of 2019, which were funded with commercial paper and some utilization of our revolving credit facility. We will continue to fund intra-quarter liquidity needs with a mix of commercial paper credit facilities and excess cash at GE Capital. As stated, our goal is to get to about $5 billion of short-term intra-quarter funding needs while we execute our de-leveraging plan, but we do expect some potentially significant fluctuation in intra-quarter short-term borrowing levels in subsequent 2019 quarters based on disposition timing and we have planned our credit facilities accordingly. At the end of the quarter, commercial paper outstanding was $3 billion and we had access to approximately $35 billion of committed revolving credit facilities with zero drawn. As planned and related to the completion of our first quarter disposition, the line stepped down from $40 billion in the fourth quarter. Next on Power, we saw better-than-expected results this quarter largely due to timing. While we have a lot of work to do, we’re making progress and the business is in the early days of its turnaround. Orders of $4.8 billion were down 14% on a reported basis, but up 14% organically. Power Portfolio orders were up 4% organically, Gas Power orders were up 24% with equipment up 95% and services up 8%. We booked about 4.5 gigawatts of heavy duty gas turbine orders for 11 gas turbines, including 3 Hs and these orders were accretive to our backlog margins and are in geographies that present lower execution risk. This was a strong orders quarter on the equipment front, but as we said before, this business has variability and some of the orders that were booked this quarter were anticipated to close later in the year. We are still planning for the new gas unit market to stabilize at 25 gigawatts to 30 gigawatts per year. Overall, Power backlog closed at $93 billion, up $1 billion versus the prior quarter, but down 3% year-on-year with equipment of $25 billion, down 4% and services of $68 billion, down 3%. Gas Power represents $70 billion of total Power segment backlog. Power revenues of $5.7 billion were down 22% reported and down 4% organically. Power Portfolio revenue was down 4% organically and Gas Power revenue was down 5%, which was slightly better performance than our expectation. We shipped 7 gas turbines in the quarter versus 12 in the first quarter of last year. Gas Power services revenue was down 5% due in large part to the outage mix this quarter. Segment margins were 1.4% in the quarter and operating profit was $80 million, down 71% largely due to the impact of dispositions and volume. While it is early in the power turnaround, this was a positive start to the year, with outperformance principally driven by timing. We have no change to our outlook for the year, but we expect variability from quarter to quarter in Power. Scott, Russell and the teams are making progress on our initiatives to improve commercial and operational performance in to our cost position. Moving to Renewable Energy, the quarter came in lower than our expectation, but we had planned for light first quarter shipments in our double-digit growth profile. Orders of $2.4 billion were up 1% reported and up 3% organically. Onshore wind orders were flat reported and we received our first order for the new onshore Cypress product, which will be installed in Germany later this year. GE is the only supplier with an operating prototype greater than 5 megawatts. Pricing came in at negative 1% in the quarter, compared to negative 8% in 2018. We’re seeing price declines continue to moderate as the industry ramps up for U.S. PTC driven orders this year and next in international markets normalizing after moving from feed in tariffs to auction. Revenues of $1.6 billion were down 3% reported and up 3% organically, onshore wind sales were up 11% reported mainly driven by equipment. Segment margins were negative 10% reported with an operating loss of $162 million, down approximately $240 million versus prior year. The decline was driven by a combination of legacy matters, including the Alstom JV consolidation, project issues and contract termination, as well as R&D investments related to the Haliade-X and Cypress platforms. Operationally, the negative pricing was more than offset by cost productivity and volume. Renewables faces a steep production ramp, which is a challenge but Jerome and his team have solid plans in place to deliver the volume. We expect to more than double deliveries of wind turbines and re-powering kit sequentially in the second quarter and further ramp deliveries in the third and fourth quarters. This volume mix, and leverage improvement should put renewables on track for the full year guidance of strong double-digit revenue organic growth in margins around zero in 2019. Next on Aviation, which had a strong start to the year, orders of $8.7 billion were up 7% reported and organically. Equipment orders grew 3% driven by commercial engines up 12% on strength in the GE90 and 9X. LEAP orders were down 20% versus prior year, but up versus expectations. We received orders for 636 LEAP engines in the quarter for both the Boeing and Airbus airframes. Service orders grew 10%, revenues of $8 billion were up 12% reported and organically. Equipment revenue grew 23% on higher commercial engines. We shipped 424 LEAP engines this quarter versus 186 in the first quarter of 2018 and we finished the first quarter on schedule with Airbus and 2 weeks behind schedule with Boeing. But we expect to be back on schedule in the second quarter. CFM56 engine shipments were down 50%, services revenues grew 6% with the spares rate up 21% driven by higher aircraft utilization. Segment margins of 20.9% contracted by 160 basis points reported in the quarter versus the prior year, and we experienced continued aftermarket strength and flat company funded R&D as more of the cost transitions to external funding, primarily in our military business. As we shared at the outlook call, total engineering effort comprising both company and customer funded spending continues to grow in line with top line growth. And this was more than offset by two margin drags, the CFM to LEAP transition, which was 310 basis points and the Passport engine shipments, which were 60 basis points. Operating profit of $1.7 billion was up 4% reported and 3% organically and higher volume and improved price partially offset by negative mix. We are on track to deliver high-single digit revenue growth and segment margins of approximately 20% in 2019. Looking at healthcare, orders of $4.9 billion were up 4% reported and 10% organically driven by equipment orders, up 13% organically and services up 5%. On a product line basis, healthcare systems orders were up 5% organically. This was driven by imaging growth of 7% due to strong growth in premium and performance CT and new product introductions in MR including our AIR coil technology as well as life care solutions up 6% due to continued momentum on solutions-oriented deal. Life sciences orders were up 22% organically with BioPharma up 31%. Revenues of $4.1 billion were flat reported and up 4% organically. Healthcare Systems revenue was up 1% organically on tougher prior year comps, particularly in imaging, life sciences was up 5% organically driven by BioPharma up 20% and Pharmaceutical Diagnostics up 7%. Segment margins were 16.7%, expanding 110 basis points on a reported basis. Operating profit of $781 million was up 6% on a reported basis and 15% organically, which excludes the sale of value-based care business. Organic profit growth was driven by volume and cost productivity, partially offset by inflation, price and program investment. Healthcare is on track to deliver its 2019 outlook, which includes BioPharma of mid single-digit organic revenue growth and margin expansion. Moving on to Oil & Gas, Baker Hughes GE released its financial results this morning and Lorenzo and Brian will hold their earnings call with investors today following ours. Regarding GE Capital, continuing operations generated net income of $135 million in the quarter, which is favorable versus prior year. This was primarily due to lower excess interest costs including the non-repeat of asset and liability management actions, the U.S. tax law change and prior year U.S. tax reform impact, higher gains and lower impairments. We ended the quarter with $107 billion of assets excluding liquidity down $2 billion from year-end, primarily driven by industrial finance. We completed the sale of the GE Capital supply chain financing program to MUFG and GE suppliers will start to transition to MUFG in the second quarter. GE Capital completed asset reductions of $1 billion in the first quarter. It is on track to execute $10 billion of asset reductions in 2019 to meet the $25 billion target. Capital finished the quarter with $15 billion of liquidity, which was flat to the fourth quarter and $63 billion of debt, which was down by $2 billion, primarily driven by debt maturities. In the first quarter, we continue to de-risk GE Capital by finalizing the WMC settlement with the Department of Justice, making the $1.5 billion payment in April, which was in line with our reserve. WMC filed for bankruptcy on April 23 and intends to file a Chapter 11 plan to complete an efficient and orderly resolution. We also contributed $1.9 billion for the insurance staff funding as planned and as discussed during the Investor teach-in and consistent with the permitted practice as we have previously discussed, we expect to fund an additional $9 billion through 2024. Our strategy at GE Capital will continue to focus on shrinking the balance sheet and achieving asset reductions of $25 billion by the end of 2019 and less than four times debt to equity ratio by 2020. As we said before, we still plan to contribute $4 billion to GE Capital in 2019. As we look out to the second quarter, we expect lower earnings from GE Capital, driven by the semi-annual preferred dividend payment and non-repeat impact of the tax law change and lower asset sale gains. Consistent with our outlook call, we anticipate that GE Capital would generate a continuing net loss of $500 million to $800 million in 2019. But we expect to break-even by 2021. At corporate, we continue to drive decision making back into the businesses and this cultural shift is starting to take hold. We believe these decentralized functions are ultimately run more efficiently and with greater accountability when decisions are made at the businesses. We continue to both reduce expenses and transfer activities to the segments while fundamentally refocusing corporate on tasks that support and enable the businesses. Our starting point for total corporate managed headcount in mid 2018 was about 26,000. Today that number stands at about 13,000 and we still have a long way to go. More than two-thirds of that reduction to date has come from internal transfers to the businesses where you will see most of the benefit and the remainder from outsourcing, restructuring, and attrition. The bottom line is that, we have exited about 1,000 corporate headcount with real cost out to date, most of which is reflected in the segment results. As we’ve said before, it’s a start, recall that our goal is to drive corporate costs below $700 million in 2021 compared to our 2018 spend of $1.2 billion. We would expect the businesses to drive further opportunity as they are now accountable for most of these positions. In the first quarter adjusted operating costs were $343 million roughly flat on a sequential basis and we are on track for our full year outlook of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion.
Larry Culp:
Jamie thanks. You will recall that most of Slide 9 was what we have shared with you back on March 14 during our outlook call. We stand by our full year guidance and as we have discussed much of our first quarter performance had to do with timing. The only new news on this slide is the addition of the 737 MAX and the key variable, which we are monitoring closely. Our industrial businesses have strong fundamentals, which gives me confidence that we can make them better cash generators. We expect free cash flow to return to positive territory next year and accelerate thereafter in 2021 as the headwinds diminish and our operational improvements yield results. Longer term, as I have said previously, from an aspirational perspective, we should see the opportunity over time for our free cash flow margins to be at least double the mid-single digit rate that we saw in 2018. While 2019 is a reset, it will be one of intensity, focus and transparency with all of you. We are committed to creating value for our employees, our customers and our shareholders. Thanks for your continued interest in GE. With that, we will open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And from Barclays we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Julian.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Maybe just a first question around industrial margins, you have got the guidance for them to grow slightly in 2019. In Q1, they are obviously down a fair amount, so maybe give us some update as to how quickly you dig out from that down 160 bps? When do we start to see the margins expand year-on-year?
Jamie Miller:
Good morning, Julian. So, we planned for margin contraction in the first quarter and that’s really been a combination of volume and cost productivity that over the course of the year will drive margin accretion. We saw declines in Power and Aviation and renewables, but for the rest of the year we have got renewables with a significant volume ramp with positive margin. We have got Power with non-repeat charges or at least charges not at the same level in the second half, which really impacted margins last year and healthcare, we see continued growth and those things really offset the Aviation mix headwinds. And as we look at it, this does ramp through the year more in the second half, but we believe we are on track for the OMX expansion for the year.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you very much. And then my second question, just around the industrial free cash flow. Appreciate the detail around the timing and how that swings around on a quarter-to-quarter basis, but just to clarify, if I look at the working capital plus contract assets outflow, in aggregate that was I think $2.5 billion in Q1. Is it fair to say that, that was the maximum outflow from those items we should expect on a quarterly basis this year or is there some risk that because of lumpiness or what have you there could be a larger outflow at some point in the next three quarters?
Jamie Miller:
If you look at this quarter compared to our total year plan, I would say the answer to that is yes, this is a very high impact quarter for both. Having said that, when you look at industrial free cash flow this quarter it was significantly better than we expected, but as we mentioned in our comments, that was largely due to timing. And when you look at the causes of some of that timing shifting with progress in aviation – I am sorry, Power and Aviation orders which in Power drove higher progress collections and you saw better underlying collections in services and lower project disbursements in Power as well. And you also saw some timing with respect to customer payments at Aviation accrued discounts. So when you look at that in totality that was most of the timing impact in the quarter. We do expect that to largely balance out over the rest of the year. So, you will see that shifting.
Operator:
From Melius Research, we have Scott Davis. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Going morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Davis:
I wanted to backup Larry a little bit, because there is not a ton new here versus your outlook call just a month ago, but what’s your sense now, you have had a chance to visit factories each of the different businesses. I mean, is there any – are there seeds of lean and daily management and best practices at all that you can build on or you have to start from scratch?
Larry Culp:
Scott, I have been out a good bit here of late. It’s the beauty of being on the other side of outlook get to spend more time with the businesses. Seeds, is probably the right way to frame it. Somebody shared with me as I have been poking around here a little bit that lean in certain quarters has been a four-letter word over time. But as I have seen a number of our facilities, what I have been very impressed by is some of the legacy lean expertise around 5S, around good flow within a line or a sell and frankly within a facility. But there is a lot of opportunity inside of those four walls, particularly with respect to how we integrate more broadly outside of any one site with our vendors and with our other facilities in any one of our segments. So in fact, I am going to have a number of our lean leaders in for half day on Wednesday of this week to really go through a little bit more to history, understand, get their perspective on what needs to be different this time around to really drive an approach here that teaches, motivates, but ultimately not only drives results, but informs a culture. And we certainly have I think the business imperatives with respect to cash and as importantly, quality and delivery for our customers to get us motivated to get after this. So, the seeds are there. We just need to water them and nurture them. And I think you will see over time and our customers will see over time real impact. But as you know, none of that really happens overnight, that in itself is a journey, but one we are going to be on here shortly.
Scott Davis:
And just on that topic, really Larry, I mean, if you are a GE employee, you have gotten kicked around pretty hard the last couple of years, I mean, is there a sense of kind of a stability and excitement, are people still shopping their resumes and trying to get the hell out of there or what’s your sense of really the stability on the people side of the organization?
Larry Culp:
Scott, I suspect both dynamics are in play. Right, I get a chance to go down to Pensacola, one of our key renewable facilities here in the U.S. sent a little note out to the organization in terms of what I saw. The response I got was really encouraging in terms of just how many people appreciated not only the visit, but the observations and what it could mean more broadly, but we don’t take anybody for granted, we know we still have to make sure our value proposition for our team is as robust as the one we try to craft for investors. So, that too is a work in process.
Operator:
From Vertical Research, we have Jeff Sprague. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning Jeff.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Jeff. Good morning.
Jeff Sprague:
Good morning. Hey, just again kind of back to cash flow, if you thought about this simplistically right, you are through Q1, you are kind of at the midpoint of your cash flow estimate for the year. But I wonder if you are suggesting to us that, that Q2 cash flow was negative because of the timing issues that you are mentioning. And as part and parcel of that too, I was wondering why it would be that you would expect maybe some spike back up from this relatively low level of intra company revolver usage in this first quarter?
Jamie Miller:
Hi, good morning, Jeff. So, with respect to free cash flow, when I was commenting on Julian’s question, I talked about the timing element. The other piece that we expect to significantly shift throughout the year is restructuring MBD as well as the timing of our supply chain finance transition. So you have got timing reversals just in the core. You had really flat restructuring this quarter which we expect to ramp throughout the year to a much more significant level. We had no supply chain finance impact this quarter that really starts in second quarter and is really more of a second half loaded item. And then we have got some watch items too, I mean, I mentioned in my comments, renewables execution is certainly something we’re watching and power just general variability in operations is something we’re watching as well. So when you start to look at second quarter, yes, we do think second quarter will be negative, but when you really look at the cadence of these, I mean, this is obviously lumpy and from a timing perspective, we expect most of that difference that you saw to reverse throughout the year. But and then you asked a question about intra-quarter and why that might be shifting? From an intra-quarter perspective, a lot of this depends on the timing of disposition activity. So, in the first quarter, we had the Wabtec cash coming in February, which helped us in terms of normalizing that peak and that variability. And then as we look at the rest of the year, it will just depend on the timing of some of our sell downs and how that might relate to our plans.
Operator:
And from JPMorgan, we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey guys, good morning.
Steve Winoker:
Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Thanks a lot for all the detail. The 10-Q is very helpful. Just a follow-up on Jeff’s question, maybe a little bit of magnitude, I mean, I think in the prior kind of high level was a portion of the annual declines across the quarters, obviously first quarter didn’t come out that way, should we kind of...
Larry Culp:
It was actually hard. You broke up a little bit.
Jamie Miller:
I think we heard you though. You were talking about magnitude, magnitude in the first quarter. Yes.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, yes, the I think the high level we were just assuming was basically just cut up the annual prorated – you know, pro-rate those declines over the four quarters. You obviously came in better than that in the first quarter. When we kind of try and calibrate on the rest of the year, you know, should we still assume, OK, there is a prorated decline in the second quarter and then the second half is kind of more heavily loaded. Is that the right mindset at this stage of the game?
Jamie Miller:
Yes, the way I would frame it is that, we still believe we’re within the range of our guidance, so negative two to zero, one industrial free cash flow. As I said before, this is lumpy, but maybe a simple way to think about it is to think about the 2018 free cash flow, think about our guide and the difference between that, I’d really think about may be spreading that over the next three quarters, maybe some simple math there.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, that’s really helpful. And one last question, just on Aviation, do you guys, you talked about progress payments and timing. Is there anything that you guys are there any kind of contractual abilities to provide discounts to customers to maybe bringing cash a little bit earlier, your prepayment discounts, is that kind of standard industry practice for you guys at various times, either quarterly or over the course of the year that you can kind of time that cash flow?
Jamie Miller:
From a discounting perspective, we do see discounting of both across both engines and services. And typically, when we contract on a deal, we will have differences in our contracts with both airframers and with the customers in terms of whether it’s discounting or timing of cash flow. So, yes, that can vary.
Operator:
And from Cowen & Company we have Gautam Khanna. Please go ahead.
Gautam Khanna:
Yes, thank you. Just a follow-up on the last question, on the 737 MAX delivery hiatus, can you just talk a little bit about what that does in terms of quarterly cash burn for every quarter that that extends? What does that do in terms of receivables you can collect or your inventory that you have to build?
Larry Culp:
Right, right. Well, I think our expo right, I think our exposure is as you frame it and obviously, we share that exposure with our joint venture partner Safran and they were talking the other day about a €200 million exposure in the second quarter if things stay as they are. And we probably have something in that same range as a headwind with respect to our own business, our own side of the JV in the second quarter. And part we can handle some of that, but again what we try to do is, make just make sure people understand no news obviously that, that’s a fluid situation with some uncertainties while we have given ourselves a little bit of room with the annual guide, none of us know for certain how that’s going to play out and we, we just wanted to flag that accordingly.
Gautam Khanna:
Understood. And just to follow up on that, if you could comment on, I know you guys are catching up, it sounds like in May with the underlying 52 a month rate on the 1B, LEAP-1B. If you could just talk about where you are on the cost curve of that program and when you expect to be at breakeven on the OE shipments and what the opportunity is to move beyond that, you know, profitable on the OE and when?
Jamie Miller:
Yes. So, it’s consistent with our view over the last year, which has been breakeven in 2021. We do expect it ranges depending on the LEAP-1A or LEAP-1B more than 10% cost out this year on the engine. And if you remember, since the end of ‘16 already we’ve taken up more than 40%, so good path here, but break-even in 2021.
Operator:
From RBC Capital, we have Deane Dray. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Deane. Good morning.
Steve Winoker:
Hey Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey, Larry, you commented on the healthcare business, the RemainCo healthcare business, you’ve got flexibility and optionality. Maybe give us an update there, we know the IPO is on hold, but could you share with us any updated thinking?
Larry Culp:
Well, I mean, I would just say, we don’t think of it as RemainCo, obviously the BioPharma business is a wonderful franchise and will be in what I believe to be good hands on the other side of the sale. But our go-forward healthcare business is an exceptionally strong franchise. I think you see that in the first quarter print, but I think more importantly, we sit really at the heart of precision health, that gives us organic optionality let alone inorganic optionality. As we get into our operating reviews, I’m really encouraged by what I see both in terms of performance around our KPIs operationally and commercially, but frankly what Kieran and company are framing as some of our improvement potential, I’ve been to two of their sites back to what Scott was poking at, frankly a lot of opportunity for lean in those businesses, particularly with respect to quality and delivery-oriented improvements. So, we’re excited about that business as part of GE and we’ll play it forward in the way that best serves our customers and shareholders. So, stay tuned.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And then just a separate topic, and I’m really not used to asking you about contingency in a forecast or guidance for the year, but we know there is contingency built in. You suggested in your remarks that the 737 has eaten into that a bit, but maybe you can frame for us, I’m not sure how quantitative, but just qualitatively, where contingency is in terms of your framework for the year?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think that we probably will refrain from trying to quantify the size of the contingency just to keep it as a contingency, right. But we’re encouraged by the start of the year Deane on cash again, given that we’ve got a fair bit of positive timing effects here, that will balance out. We can safely conclude our contingencies effectively in hand, a little bit of pressure here as I highlighted, given what we know here in the second quarter around MAX, we’ll see how the second half plays out. We don’t have all of that baked in, but we don’t want to necessarily bring excuses forward, we want to deliver results, and that’s the mindset that we’ve got here.
Operator:
And from Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning Nigel.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Steve Winoker:
Hey Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Yes. But I venture to maybe dial back the bit more detail on the Power Services performance during the quarter. I’ll be particularly interested in how the transactional business is faring?
Larry Culp:
Sure, Nigel. Let me give you a little bit of color there. I think if we look at orders, we were encouraged, though not satisfied, the order book was up slightly. Revenues were down and that was largely a function of mix. Good underlying volume, but frankly some of the higher price point outages were down year-on-year. Good bit of noise in the margins there, but when we when I look at it operationally, we were up slightly. So I think Scott and Company would say, some progress a long, a long way to go here both with respect to the top line and delivering on the improved pricing, we’re seeing in that order book, right. It’s one thing to write that order with better pricing, we need to execute on it, to see that really play out in the margins. But a decent start I’d say to ‘19.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, great. And then Larry, your comments on the free cash margin doubling. I think you said, more than double, obviously no timeline on that, but for most of the people buying your stock today have 3-year to 5-year horizon. How aspirational is that margin target, high single-digits margin, do you see that as I wouldn’t say a line of sight, but do you think that’s feasible target within a 3-year to 4-year time horizon?
Larry Culp:
Well, I would say, Nigel, we put a 3-year time table on it, it would no longer be aspirational right. It would be a mid-term outlook. But I think I just see strong performance in a number of parts of the Company, but also the signs, the cash has not always been a priority. Part of what I think we’re seeing in power and part of what we’re working on elsewhere is to make sure that when we go cut deals to drive and fill the order book that we’re thinking about the cash over the lifecycle of that order, right, because we want to get paid and we’d like to get paid sooner rather than later. We’ve talked a little bit about lean. I don’t want to make this a teaching on lean, but there are a lot of opportunities to improve our free cash flow as that becomes more a part of our fabric. And that will have positive impact I think for customers as well as it will for us. When you get into the real flow in a supply chain, there are opportunities, particularly as we deal with our vendors and with each other in a more integrated pole-oriented way. I was at a facility recently talking about or asking about Kanban. Somebody said, what’s that? You can take that two different ways. I took that as a good thing, that’s an opportunity to drive more pull, more flow in the facilities. But first things first, right. We need to deliver on what we said back in March relative to this year. Nobody is proud of the fact that cash flow number, probably going to have parenthesis around it, but it is what it is, next year when you walk in with line of sight on positive free cash, and then a significant uptick in ‘21. So, I think for today we’ll keep the aspirations aspirational and maybe with a little bit more progress we can dial that in a little bit more tightly.
Operator:
From Deutsche Bank, we have Nicole DeBlase. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes, thanks. Good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Hey Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
Hey, so I’m going to apologize because I was on another call, so if these have been answered or if you guys answered them in prepared remarks, I am sorry about that.
Larry Culp:
Another call?
Nicole DeBlase:
I know. I am sorry, it’s such a busy day. So, the first question just around the renewables business, just margins came in a bit weaker than we had expected. I know this is a tough year for renewables, but if you could talk a little bit about like the trajectory from here if 1Q is reflective of the full year?
Jamie Miller:
Good morning, Nicole. So renewables, we were encouraged by orders, we were encouraged by pricing really stabilizing, but they did have a tougher quarter, while megawatt volume was up 13% year-over-year, we did see some volume slippages in the quarter and pricing impact was small as we talked about, but we had strong product cost control, which was really good. Our challenge here is that, we got a couple of things really impacting year-over-year and then we do expect margin accretion throughout the year, so year-over-year we have the impact from the consolidation of the Alstom JV. We had some project execution issues, some in offshore and hydro, we had a non-repeat from first quarter of ‘18 of some favorability. We also had an offshore contract termination that was favorable in the quarter. So net-net that was a negative. We have higher R&D, higher depreciation and China tariffs that are affecting us operationally and we’ve got lower PPA amortization or purchase price amortization. So, year-over-year, you see that impacting our margin. Having said that, we have got a very steep volume ramp as we talked about this year, so for the year, more than doubling in the second quarter with an even more significant ramp in the third and fourth quarter, good margin backlog, so that’s good. You will still see R&D being up 9% year-over-year and I think you’ll see more moderation in how we’re managing our legacy projects, some of this noise is us just continuing to burn off some of that order book in renewables. So, hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color.
Nigel Coe:
Yes, that’s super helpful Jamie, thanks. And then kind of a similar question on capital, a little bit better in the first quarter, what drove that relative to the guidance for $500 million to $800 million loss in the full year and I guess what’s the cadence from here throughout the rest of ‘19?
Jamie Miller:
Yes, so capital did come in well above plan. And a couple of bigger items that drove that, which were lumpy. First is the impact of the tax law change in the quarter was about $100 million. The second, we did have asset sales in GECAS totaling $86 million of gain and both of those I would characterize as either one-off or timing in terms of just when they might occur. We sold the supply chain finance business to MUFG as well in the quarter that was $25 million and we had some other capital corporate favorability. But bottom line is when you look at the cadence, so first of all, this was an unusually high quarter for us. We do continue to expect the negative $500 million to negative $800 million for the year. Remember that our preferred dividend hits us in the second quarter and in the fourth quarter, so that’s a sizable negative. And then we will have other asset sale impacts throughout the year, which again are going to be lumpy.
Operator:
From Citi, we have Andrew Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Hey good morning guys.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Andrew, good morning.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Larry, just focusing on the $3 billion gas power equipment business, you mentioned in the 2019 outlook call that, that was one of your key focus areas for improvement in terms of profitability and today you mentioned that the 4.5 gigawatts of orders were at higher margin and lower risk. Can you give us some more color on what lower risk means and do you think any of the improvement in orders was actually the result of a better US market?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think that all of that comes together right to see the 3H orders that we got in the first quarter, we got a couple more here in April really suggest the U.S. market, which we thought would be better than I think some allowed, came in at the start of the year better than we had anticipated. Looks like our share position will be somewhere in the 40% range when that comes out, so I think by and large, again we don’t want to get too excited those words we were aiming to get, we just got them earlier, but that’s all good and because it’s a U.S. based order book on balance that is part of what we’re referring to in terms of the risk. But I just want to highlight that in the order structure that we put in place in gas power where we’re running at less, we’re running with if you will, less borders within the business, the regions really are more integrated. And we’re trying to drive process, so that we are more mindful about the margin and the degree of difficulty, which translates into risk around any of these projects, whether they’re close to Schenectady or a long way from home. So that too is not something that happens overnight, but I think given what we’ve seen here at the beginning of the year we’re encouraged by that. And as we go through our monthly operating reviews with Scott and the team, we get into some of the process improvements, the lean activity both with respect to how we write these deals and execute on the projects, let alone the service side with the outages, I think you’ll see better execution over time.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
And Larry, related to that, you have obviously been trying to fix your execution issues in power. So, while we know a lot of the cash performance was timing related, did your execution related power cash drag begin to improve and what’s the probability that power cash flow is actually not worse than the $2.7 billion outflow in ‘18?
Larry Culp:
Well, I’m not sure we would really point to too many high impact material process improvements in terms of capital or at least working capital at this point. But that said, there is a lot that we still want to do from a restructuring perspective. I think that’s why despite their start of the year, which was far better than we had anticipated, we’re hanging on the full-year guidance because we want to make sure we not only give ourselves the latitude to do all that we can to adjust the cost structure here, I don’t want anyone to think that this is a risk free segment for us at this point, because we got off to a good start in a few places.
Jamie Miller:
And I would say we’re monitoring things operationally. I mean I mentioned before that we do expect continued variability in power throughout the year. In the quarter, free cash flow for power was negative, it was significantly better than we expected, but for the year, we continue to expect it to be significantly negative. So hopefully that’s a little color.
Operator:
From Bank of America, we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning. Can you hear me?
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
I have just a question, just a follow-up on Power orders, we’ve been tracking U.S. utilities CapEx and it seems to be going up and I was thinking a lot of it had to do with pipeline, frankly. But are you seeing any positive trends on maintenance as well as you talk to your customers?
Larry Culp:
I’m sorry, Andrew on...
Andrew Obin:
Utility, U.S. utilities CapEx, just trending positively, beyond orders for new gas power, are you seeing more spending on maintenance out of the U.S. utilities.
Larry Culp:
I wouldn’t say that we’ve seen anything material in terms of the underlying budget scopes that we see on balance with our domestic customers. For us, it’s really about execution on the CS side CSA side of a service book and just executing better as we alluded to earlier on a transaction side, not only in terms of our customer outreach, visibility still I think south of 90% today, getting a little bit better each quarter, let alone our share. I know that’s a high priority for Scott, as he walks into the second quarter.
Andrew Obin:
And just a follow-up question, so I think Kevin Cox has been there now all of like maybe a month and a half, but what structural changes are you, if any, are you implementing under him, any new approaches, how you manage people inside the Company? Thank you.
Larry Culp:
Kevin will be thrilled to know that you were asking about this. For those that don’t know Kevin, Kevin Cox is our new Senior Vice President for Human Resources direct report to me. Kevin, top HR Executive in his field came to us from American Express, grew up at Pepsi, seen a lot of change, seen a lot of challenge, we’re thrilled to have him. He is still I think inside his 100-day tour of the Company. So, what we try to do with new people is give them as much time to get their bearings. So, it’s Kevin hasn’t laid out his answer to this question necessarily to the internal team, let alone the Board. He is on the June meeting docket. So, I’ll just not get into too much detail other than to allude to some of these cultural dynamics that, that we highlighted in our prepared remarks, right. There is a lot we can do in terms of our formal processes and systems to drive the cultural change that, that we aspire to. And one of the reasons I wanted Kevin here on this team is he has done that and is very keen to be a part of that here at GE. So, somebody we’re excited to have on the team and we’ll certainly make sure that as time progresses, we give investors exposure to Kevin in what we’re doing on, if you will, the softer side of the transformation here.
Operator:
And from Credit Suisse, we have John Walsh. Please go ahead.
John Walsh:
Hi, good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning John.
John Walsh:
So just a question here and a follow-up. So, I guess thinking about the margin progression here, talking about the second half being better, how much of that’s really driven by your internal initiatives, whether it’s restructuring in the Power HQ versus, you know, assuming we get a better macro here in the second half. And then as a follow-up to that, just, you talked about absolute pricing in renewables in the script, just wonder if you could give some color around absolute pricing in Power and Healthcare and the other parts of the portfolio?
Jamie Miller:
So, in terms of margin projection and over the balance of the year, I would say, we look at that as all things that we see, we’ve tried to set a very realistic plan based on things we see and can control. And in terms of the broader macro market, I mean, I’ll let Larry comment on that, but roughly in line with where we see it today as how we planned.
Larry Culp:
Yes, I don’t think we’ve made any macro call here with respect to the guide in March let alone the confirmation here today. If anything from a macro perspective, clearly, we’ve got the PTC dynamic in renewables, but otherwise, we’re really assuming more of a steady state in our served markets. Obviously, passenger miles, is a strong indicator for us in aviation, that looks good. Power is in its own cycle healthcare tends to be somewhat resilient as well. So, I really can’t think of anything other than PTC in terms of sequential external lift that we’re going to get.
Jamie Miller:
Yes. And then just commenting on your pricing question, so pricing this quarter was flat across the company. We saw slight positives at Aviation, slight negatives as per usual at Healthcare. In Power, basically flat, Larry talked before about equipment orders in the quarter were margin accretive to backlog. In addition to the comments he made, I would also just add that the underwriting framework that has been implemented there, I think has been very helpful as well, more focus on risk-adjusted cash returns and margins no longer comping on share just a more balanced risk return framework there, but flat at Power and then we talked about renewables being slightly negative. We do see it moderating both as PTC demand is driving price moderation but also just as you’re seeing more price stability in the non-U.S. auctions.
Operator:
Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. Mr. Winoker, do you have any additional remarks?
Steve Winoker:
I just want to thank everybody for joining us. I know we’re over our time. If for whatever reason we didn’t get to you in any case, the team and I will be available through the week to help further. Thanks everybody. See you next time.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Brandon and I'll be your conference facilitator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker Vice President of Investor Communications. Please go ahead sir.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Brandon and good morning and welcome to GE's Fourth Quarter Earnings Webcast. I'm joined by our Chairman and CEO Larry Culp; and CFO, Jamie Miller. Before we start, I'd like to remind you that the press release, presentation and supplemental have been available since earlier today on our investor website at www.ge.com/investors. Please note that some of the statements we are making today are forward looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. And now, I'll turn the call over to Larry
Larry Culp:
Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining us. Our comments are going to be a bit longer than usual this morning to help you understand where we are and where we're going. But rest assured, we'll leave as much time as we can for questions at the end. First, I'd like to start by welcoming Steve to the GE team. I've known him for over a decade. Steve's already had positive impact here at GE and I'm sure, he'll do the same for you, our investors going forward. I'm here today because I believe in GE. There is no company on earth with a scale of GE's global reach, brand, talent and long-term customer relationships. We have leading technology in key infrastructure markets with high barriers to entry and strong aftermarket streams. We're poised to capture recurring revenues on a global installed base of almost 70,000 engines more than 70 -- 7,000 gas turbines and aero-derivatives, more than 40,000 onshore wind turbines and more than 4 million Healthcare Systems. In short, GE matters. We've identified clear opportunities to improve our performance and we are working to address them at root cause. We have the right portfolio of strategy and I'm confident the company is capable of gaining profitable share and creating long-term value for our shareholders. So let me cover where we stand on providing an outlook. Then I'll address some of the company changes followed by updates on our results, the balance sheet, capital and power. Jamie will take you through more details on the quarter and then I'll wrap with some metrics and comments to help you frame the outlook for 2019 before Q&A. Let's start with the outlook because investors want to know how we expect to perform financially and you should expect to come from a place of reality. Simply put the how much is important but the how is far more fundamental. We have a good line of sight in most of our businesses today including Aviation and Healthcare. For the industrial portfolio in total, we will provide you with our outlook for organic growth and we'll do so directionally on operating margins and free cash flow. We will give you a more detailed outlook in the near term but not today. For Power, we are resetting the baseline. We are reviewing every single project and contract and digging deeper to understand costs and benefits with respect to restructuring, market and commercial execution, improvement opportunities, legacy project issues and our service operations. We're gaining more meaningful insights into the paths for near and long-term earnings and cash potential of this business. This work takes time especially with the new structure and leadership team. In the spirit of providing you with all the information we have as soon as we have it, I'll speak to what I have found over the last 120 days. We were executing against the key priorities we laid out in June and again in October. Simply put deleveraging the balance sheet and strengthening our businesses starting with Power. Remember beyond Power, it's important to recognize the underlying strengths in our businesses where the story is about enhancing our competitive advantage and delivering for customers and shareholders. With respect to delevering, we've taken the following actions
Jamie Miller:
Thanks. Larry. I'll start with the fourth quarter summary. Orders were $34.1 billion down 1% reported and up 4% organically with particular strength in equipment orders up 7% organically driven by aviation commercial engines and renewables. The services orders were up 1% organically. Revenues were up 5%, industrial segment revenues were up 2% reported and 8% organically driven by renewables Aviation Oil & Gas Healthcare and Transportation. Equipment revenues grew 10% and services were up 6% organically. Industrial profit margins were 7.5% in the quarter down 150 basis points year-over-year on a reported and organic basis driven by significant declines in Power and Renewables. For the year, margins were down 80 basis points organically. Industrial profit was down 16% in the quarter with Aviation, Healthcare and Baker Hughes GE all delivering strong profit growth offset mostly by Power. Specifically Aviation had another outstanding quarter and year expanding total year margins while shipping over 1,100 LEAP engines. Net earnings per share was $0.07, which includes losses from discontinued operations related to GE Capital. GAAP continuing EPS was $0.08 and adjusted EPS was $0.17. I'll walk the GAAP continuing EPS to adjusted EPS on the right side of the page. Starting from GAAP. Continuing EPS was $0.08 and we had $0.06 of gains principally from the sale of Distributed Power. As you will recall in the third quarter, we booked the $22 billion impairment charge related to Power goodwill based on our best estimate at that time. And during the fourth quarter, we finalized our analysis and booked an incremental $69 million charge for Power following the third quarter charge. We also recorded a goodwill impairment charge of $94 million in renewables at our Hydro business. Combined these charges were $0.02 impact. On restructuring and other items, we incurred $0.07 of charges principally at Corporate and Power as we continue to resize those segments in line with our stated plan including $0.02 of charges related to business development transaction expenses and $0.01 for our share of Baker Hughes GE's restructuring. Lastly, we realized a $0.01 negative impact from US tax reform as we updated our estimate of the transition tax and other aspects of the enactment of the new law. Our current accrual reflects the effects of tax reform enactment based on guidance issued through year-end. Excluding these items adjusted EPS was $0.17 in the quarter. Moving to cash, adjusted industrial free cash flow was $4.9 billion for the quarter, $1.9 billion lower than the prior year driven primarily by a lower progress collections. Income depreciation and amortization totaled $2.3 billion. Working capital was positive $2.3 billion for the quarter as we reduced over $1 billion of inventory on a higher fourth quarter volume and grew progress collections by $500 million primarily in renewables from strong PTC-driven orders. Contract assets were a source of cash of $900 million as we saw higher services billings in aviation driven by higher fleet utilization and spare parts consumption from strong air traffic and we spent about $1 billion in gross CapEx or $600 million ex-Baker Hughes GE. For the year, we generated $4.5 billion of adjusted industrial free cash flow and we ended the year with higher volume in the fourth quarter as is typical for our businesses. And to provide you with more detail, Power used $2.7 billion in free cash flow for the year due to a combination of restructuring costs, nonoperational headwinds as well as execution and market issues. Next, I'll cover liquidity. On the left side of the page, you can see the walk of the GE cash balance. We ended the fourth quarter with $16.8 billion of industrial cash in the bank excluding Baker Hughes GE. And for the total year, we had industrial free cash flow of $4.5 billion. We paid dividends of $4.2 billion and as of the first quarter of 2019, you'll recall that the dividend is decreasing to $0.01 per share per quarter, which will preserve about $4 billion of cash in 2019. We generated cash proceeds of $5.9 billion net of taxes related to our industrial disposition principally Industrial Solutions, Value-Based Care and Dis Power. And together with Wabtec that gets to the more than $10 billion we had talked about previously. Earlier in the year, we assumed $6 billion of debt from GE Capital to fund the principal pension plan, which was completed in the third quarter. Alstom and GE exercised their JV redemption rights and call options, which we settled for $3.1 billion in the fourth quarter. These entities operate at a loss. So the consolidation of 100% of the financials negatively impacted fourth quarter and will be an income headwind for us of about $300 million in 2019. We also completed a secondary offering for approximately 100 million Baker Hughes GE shares as well as a direct stock buyback with Baker Hughes GE for 65 million shares bringing our ownership stake to 50.4% in the fourth quarter. These actions combined with other Baker Hughes GE buybacks during the year totaled $4.4 billion in cash proceeds. The $2.5 billion of other cash includes a number of items including about $900 million of investments in our Aviation business primarily from the first half of the year; $900 million of short data derivative hedge settlements that we used to mitigate risks across the portfolio; and $400 million of FX translation on our non-US dollar-denominated cash. Running with a higher cash balance will help us address inter-quarter funding needs. In line with our goal to reduce reliance on short-term funding, peak short-term funding needs declined from $19.7 billion in the fourth quarter of '17 to $14.8 billion in the fourth quarter of '18. These were funded with commercial paper and some utilization of our credit facilities. As we execute dispositions in 2019, we expect our intra-quarter funding needs to continue to decline and would expect to use a mix of commercial paper, credit facilities and excess cash at GE Capital to efficiently fund these needs. At the end of the year, commercial paper outstanding was $3 billion and we had access to $40 billion of committed revolving credit facilities with zero drawn. These lines are available to draw at any time and they don't have financial covenants ratings triggers or material adverse change clauses. As you know, our credit rating was downgraded from A to BBB+ with a stable outlook in early fourth quarter. This impact has been manageable with less than $15 million of collateral postings and a smooth transition to a Tier two commercial paper program. We continue to target a sustainable rating in the single A range. Now, I'll take you through financial policy and leverage. We remain committed to our financial policy of a target single A rating a leverage level of less than 2.5x net debt-to-EBITDA and ultimately a dividend level in line with our peers. Deleveraging both GE and GE Capital is a priority and we have significant sources to achieve our goals. As Larry mentioned, we view these businesses differently with different balance sheets and capital structure needs and therefore we analyze their leverage separately. Our goal is leverage for the GE industrial businesses of less than 2.5x net debt-to-EBITDA. We plan to make significant progress toward this goal by the end of 2020 and as a reminder when we speak about net debt, we're talking about debt adjusted for pensions, operating leases and a portion of preferred stock and cash. Measured on this basis, GE Industrial net debt at the end of 2018 was $55 billion. As we look out over the next couple of years, we expect to have roughly $50 billion of industrial sources that can be used to delever and derisk the company. These sources include $18 billion of debt and pension transfer to Healthcare and more than $30 billion of cash proceeds from the monetization of up to just under 50% of Healthcare, 100% of our remaining stake in Baker Hughes GE and our stake in transportation. These sources will be used in part to reduce GE net debt by more than $30 billion including repaying a significant part of the $14 billion of debt transferred from GE Capital and reducing commercial paper. The parent also plans to contribute $4 billion to GE Capital in 2019 to maintain adequate capital levels there. At GE Capital, we have a plan to reduce our debt to equity ratio to less than 4x by the end of 2020. GE Capital began the quarter with $70 billion of debt and ended with $66 billion while our total assets measure $124 billion. For the year, we made significant progress at GE Capital paying down $21 billion of external debt, taking down leverage by 1.4 turns including reducing commercial paper from $5 billion to zero. GE Capital ended 2018 with $15 billion of liquidity. Over the next two years, we expect to generate additional sources of cash from asset sales, including $10 billion in 2019 from completing our GE Capital $25 billion asset reduction plan. We'll have cash from the pay down of most of the debt transferred to GE and capital support from GE. We have reached an agreement in principle on WMC that we expect to conclude expeditiously. And in 2019 and 2020, GE Capital will pay down $25 billion of scheduled debt maturities and continue to contribute about $2 billion per year of capital to our insurance businesses as previously disclosed. We now don't expect to issue new debt until 2021. We are planning approximately $4 billion of capital contributions to GE Capital in 2019. This includes $1.5 billion for the WMC agreement in principal announced today and ensuring we have adequate risk-based capital levels for our current portfolio. Going forward, we anticipate funding any insurance capital requirements or strategic options through a combination of GE Capital earnings, asset sales, liquidity and GE parent support. While we have more work to do, we continue to make progress in strengthening the balance sheet. Next on Power. Orders were down 19% in the quarter. Gas Power Systems orders were down 26%. For the year, Gas Power Systems orders were down 40%. We ended the year with a $9 billion backlog, which was down 8% year-over-year. This is consistent with our outlook for a 25 to 30 gigawatt market for the foreseeable future. Power Services orders were down 20%. Steam orders were up 61% and grid orders were down 13% for the year. Power revenue was down 25%. Gas Power Systems revenues were down 21%. Power Services revenue was also down 21%. During the quarter, we took $400 million of charges related to our CSA contracts, which impacts revenue. Excluding these charges Power Services revenue was down 11%. Steam revenue was down 30% on lower America's and Europe volume and grid was flat. Moving to profit. The segment loss $872 million in the fourth quarter. We performed our normal CSA reviews and while total utilization on the book is flat, we have seen lower utilization on some of our units in some geographies and some pricing pressure in contracts relative to ongoing market dynamics and we updated our assumptions to reflect a revised outlook in these areas. In addition, we had our normal cost standard updates, which included updates to our cost standards including the impact of the stage-one blade issue as expected. This resulted in the $400 million of charges that I previously mentioned. In addition, we also incurred about $350 million of costs related to Gas Power Systems projects. Similar to the third quarter, we continue to experience project execution issues resulting in liquidated damages as well as partner execution issues. Grid profit was down year-over-year impacted negatively by the buyout of the Alstom share of the JV. These items had a significant impact on Power's results and overall, we see the heavy duty gas turbine market is flat over the next few years and see significant opportunity to improve our own execution. Next on Aviation, which had another great quarter. Orders of $8.8 billion were up 12%. Equipment orders grew 20%, driven by continued strong momentum of the LEAP engine program up 56% versus prior year. Military engine orders were up 69% driven by the F414 and service orders grew 7%. Revenues of $8.5 billion grew 21%. Equipment revenues were up 13% on higher commercial engine partially offset by lower military volume. Specifically, we shipped 379 LEAP engines this quarter up 177 units year-over-year. And in total, we shipped 1,118 LEAP engines for the year. We're still behind on deliveries by about four weeks but the business expects to be back on schedule by mid-2019. Services revenue grew 26% with spares rate up 10% driven by higher fleet utilization and spare parts consumption from strong air traffic. Segment profit of $1.7 billion was up 24% on higher volumes, improved price and operating productivity and compared to the fourth quarter of last year, we shipped almost 90% more LEAP engines. Despite the negative mix from higher LEAP shipments operating profit margins of 20.4% expanded 60 basis points in the quarter and 130 basis points for the year. The LEAP engine continues to perform very well with a 58% win rate on the A320neo family and 81% win rate in the narrow-body segment when you add in Boeing 737 MAX and Comac C919. Utilization rates are over 95%. We continue to improve the cost position of the LEAP and over the last two years, we've taken out more than 40% of the cost of the engine and are ahead on the learning curve initially laid out for the program. The overall program will break even around 2021. Now, I'll provide some additional transparency on the engine transition in the narrow-body market. The mixing from CFM56 to LEAP resulted in a margin drag of approximately 160 basis points in 2018 and 130 basis points in the quarter. The business is successfully offsetting this margin pressure through continued growth in aftermarket services, military and changing the mix of company-funded R&D spend. In summary, another strong year for David and the aviation team. In renewables, renewables orders were up 19% versus prior year driven by onshore equipment up 9% and services up 32% on strong repower units. We shipped 44% more megawatts and onshore wind and saw strong orders bookings 3 gigawatts in the fourth quarter and 8.6 gigawatts for the year and we gained share. Revenues of $3.4 billion were up 28% mainly driven by onshore wind up 34% on both higher new unit shipments and repowering volume. Segment margin of 2% was down 330 basis points for the quarter and profit of $67 million was down 51% mainly driven by negative price, liquidated damages for execution delays on a handful of complicated projects including some legacy Alstom projects and higher losses in hydro and offshore as we began fully consolidating these entities in the fourth quarter. The consolidation presented a headwind of about 220 basis points. Recall that we had to book loss reserves at the time of the Alstom deal and we continue to burn through the negative cash flow impact of those projects. The business has seen favorable cash tailwinds from the PTC cycle, pricing is improving and we continue to see strong product cost reduction and while we're seeing some adverse impacts from tariffs, we're working to mitigate them with pricing and supply chain actions. For Healthcare, orders of $5.8 billion were up 2% organically. On a product line basis, Life Sciences orders were up 13% organically with bioprocess up 20%. Healthcare Systems orders were down 1% organically, which was about what we expected as we were comping a very strong fourth quarter in 2017. Revenue of $5.4 billion was up 6% organically. Healthcare Systems revenue grew 4% organically and Life Sciences was up 10%. Segment margin was 21.8% expanding 10 basis points reported and 110 basis points organically, which excluded costs incurred in preparation for a separation in 2019. Profit was $1.2 billion up 2% on a reported basis and 12% organically. Organic profit growth was driven by volume and cost productivity partially offset by inflation, price and higher program investment. As the Healthcare team continues to prepare for separation, they closed out a solid year. Moving to oil and gas. Baker Hughes GE released its financial results this morning and Lorenzo and Brian will hold their earnings call with investors today following ours. Next for Transportation and Lighting. Since we last spoke in October, we signed an agreement to sell Current to American Industrial Partners and the Justice Department has closed its review of the pending merger between GE Transportation and Wabtec. Last week, we also announced amended transaction terms to further support our deleveraging plan. GE will increase its stake in Wabtec from approximately 10% to approximately 25% resulting in increased cash proceeds of approximately $2.2 billion as we sell down our stake. We will still receive $2.9 billion in cash from Wabtec at closing and both transactions are expected to close in early 2019 subject to customary closing conditions. Finally, I'll cover GE Capital. Net loss from continuing operations was $86 million in the quarter, including a tax reform adjustment of negative $128 million. Adjusted continuing net income was $43 million. We completed our annual GAAP loss recognition testing in our runoff insurance portfolio, which resulted in an after-tax charge of about $65 million to increase reserves. As part of the test, we unlocked our future policy benefit reserve and updated key assumptions related to the book. The two largest drivers being the changes to our assumptions and morbidity improvement of a negative $1.2 billion offset by discount rate impact of $1.9 billion. Recall that statutory testing not GAAP drives funding. We expect to conclude the statutory testing in mid-to-late February and consistent with our existing insurance funding plan, we continue to expect required statutory funding of approximately $2 billion in the first quarter of 2019. We are managing this runoff portfolio with new management and increased board expertise and focus. To provide additional information to further clarify our insurance obligations, we plan to include enhanced disclosures related to our insurance book in our 10-K, which will be released in mid-to-late February. We'll include a wide range of items from the profile of our book to morbidity and mortality assumptions to lapse rates, premium increases and related sensitivities. With that I'll turn it back over to Larry.
Larry Culp:
Jamie, thank you. So hopefully, by now you have a better sense of what I'm seeing at GE after nearly four months, our strengths, our challenges and our strategy for moving forward. I'd like to give you all the information and views on 2019 that we have today with more to come soon. We expect industrial organic revenue growth to be up low to mid-single digits on the back of a significant ramp in renewables and continued strength in Aviation and Healthcare. Power will be down in a flat to slightly down market in 2019. We also expect our industrial operating margins to expand. On free cash flow, we expect to face operating headwinds such as the PTC progress cycle reversing in renewables and we will spend more cash on restructuring at both Corporate and Power. In addition, we have a number of nonrecurring investments and commitments that create a drag on our free cash flow in 2019 but which will meaningfully lessen in 2020 and '21. These include transitioning to GE Capital supply chain financing program to MUFG and reducing factoring with GE Capital, Alstom pension contributions and legal settlements and the costs related to the preparation for our Healthcare business for our public separation. We anticipate cash flow to grow substantially in 2020 and 2021 as we make significant headway in addressing legacy and structural issues while simultaneously realizing the benefits from restructuring and stronger daily management of our businesses particularly in Power. In aviation, we see 75% to 80% of the 2019 commercial engine revenues secured in the backlog, with a largely recurring service revenue stream of approximately $15 billion. We are maintaining margin levels consistent with pre-LEAP periods despite mix changes with a healthy new order book. With these in mind, we see high single-digit revenue growth and low single-digit profit growth. In Healthcare, we expect organic growth in margins in a similar range to last year. We see double-digit revenue growth in renewables. The business is coming through the PTC cycle and onshore wind, which contributed to strong cash performance in 2018, as a result of progress build. That progress cycle will begin reversing this year, as we transition to factory production and book revenue against those contracts. However, we see price declines moderating and within the level of our product cost reduction efforts going forward. This is our baseline today for 2019 as our plan continues to evolve. As we develop more conviction around the cash flow situation of Power, we will update you in the near term with respect to the outlook for the full year. So my message for 2019 is that the more stable businesses of Aviation and Healthcare are healthy and growing. Renewables is moving through the PTC cycle. We are working on Power and capital is shrinking. 2019 is still very much a work in progress but the company is becoming stronger. As I said earlier, the how much is important here, but the how is far more fundamental. How is about understanding and fixing problems at root cause. How is about process not for processes sake but to ensure the sustainability of our results to create enduring shareholder value. I'm proud of the momentum, I see across this company and the changes we're making to strengthen GE for the long run. With that we'll open it up to your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And from Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Morning. Lots of questions. I mean, I'm sure a lot of my questions will be picked up by other analysts, but I just want to start on. It sounds like your plans on Healthcare now are pretty defined, Larry. It looks like you're looking to monetize 50% putting an $18 billion of pension debts, via an IPO-type process. Is that now defined or are there still some moving pieces on that process?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think we've talked about that separation as the plan of record and that continues to be the case today. The team is very well along Nigel with respect to the preparation for a flotation. We don't have a time frame per se to share with you today but we are spending a significant amount of money in '19 as we did last year in preparation. We're obviously proud of what Karyn and the team are doing here. Very strong top line earnings and cash performance and we think this is a business that is going to be a strong resilient performer through cycles. So that is the plan.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. And then my follow-on would be, you gave a lot of detail on what you've been doing for the last few months and lots of opportunities for improvement. One thing, you didn't really touch on was pricing and pricing excellence and your one precedent of GE in the past has been may be trading price for market share. So I'm just curious, what your thoughts are in terms of improving the pricing realization going forward?
Larry Culp:
Nigel, forgive us, if we didn't get into that in detail. We didn't want to overstay our welcome with respect to our prepared remarks. But when you hear us refer to profitable market share that is both an external and internal recognition. And it can't be share for share sake. And particularly in Power, I think we are acutely aware that we have opportunities both on new equipment and on the service book to basically value sell what we're doing more frequently. I got the word last night for example within Power of a project that is looking very good where we're frankly -- we are not the low bid, right? I think that just speaks to the way we're able to communicate the value of our technology. We know in these businesses from Healthcare to renewables price is a reality. We want to be smarter around pricing, at the same time, frankly when you hear us talk about labor and material productivity, we really want to push that hard and do that in line with market realities, so that we can maintain margins in light of some of those pressures.
Jamie Miller:
And Nigel, just to add a little bit more color there on the numbers. Orders pricing in total for the year was relatively flat. It was actually up just slightly and it was up more than that in the second half. And as Larry mentioned, we are seeing in the numbers the pressure moderating at Power and at renewables. Power really with respect to the enhanced discipline on new projects and bids as Larry talked about. In renewables, we're seeing that pressure moderate as we move throughout the year as well primarily as we're moving through that PTC cycle. The supply chains are more stretched and that price dynamic becomes a little bit more unbalanced. Aviation and Healthcare are running as you would expect, which is strongly as Larry mentioned.
Operator:
And from JPMorgan, we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, good morning. So you mentioned on the free cash flow dynamics, you mentioned the PTC headwind, a bit more restructuring cash, some other I guess nonrecurring investments. Can you maybe give us some color on that? In addition, just provide some color on how much of a, I think Jamie said before about $1 billion of headwind or so from divestitures. So maybe just help us with a bit of a rough bridge from the $4.5 you did in 2018? Because obviously that sounds like it's going to be down.
Jamie Miller:
Yes. So why don't I talk through the components of 2018 first in terms of really walking you through the rounding out our fourth quarter performance and we can address some of those questions. So for 2018, if you really walk the changes, we obviously had earnings. We also had working capital, which for the year was basically zero impact of free cash flow. Fourth quarter was $2.3 billion positive. As we expected with large volumes coming through this quarter. Contract assets was basically flat.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, sorry. I can see the slide. I just wanted to know like $4.5 billion. Is that -- there's a lot of headwinds that Larry had talked about. I'm just curious as to maybe you can give us some color on the size of some of those headwinds? And obviously, it sounds like it will be down. Will you as an organization generate cash including GE Capital next year? I guess that's the simple way to ask the question.
Larry Culp:
Yeah, Steve. And I think the simple answer the question is, what we're trying to communicate today is that we are going to see pressures both operational and nonrecurring. We are going to be back shortly when we can take you through a detailed walk in that regard. I think from an operating perspective, is worth acknowledging a lot of good performance in the number of businesses. Clearly renewables was stronger from a cash perspective in '18 and is likely to be in '19 given the PTC dynamic. And we are going to go deep here on additional restructuring where we see opportunities to put that money to work and generate real returns. We also have some of these nonrecurring events or issues. Some of them are policy decisions like the move on the supply chain financing program. I think we've got better line of sight today on some of these legacy issues that come out of Alstom that we're on the hook or those are real cash commitments in '19 that abate thereafter and we do have the cost relative in Healthcare IPO. So again, I think the headline is, we finished strongly. We know we got some operating and non-operating pressures and think we work through that in '19 with an eye toward a stronger cash flow performance in '20 and '21 with more details to come soon.
Steve Tusa:
Great. And what do you expect GE cash to earn in 2019 and how much from an ongoing cash generation perspective, how much will they be generating?
Larry Culp:
Steve, as I said in both my prepared remarks and a moment ago when we have everything locked down to get into those specifics then we'll do that soon. We'll be back to you.
Operator:
From Vertical Research we have Jeffrey Sprague
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jamie Miller:
Morning, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Yeah. Two from me. Just thinking about the Healthcare exit in particular. Kind of, for lack of a better term, losing that cash flow near term seems like it would create some stress on the organization. Can you give us a sense of, what you foresee as kind of the timing of the exit? And then Larry, particularly interested also on, how you view exiting the remaining 50% stake. Do you see the potential for some kind of, equity-friendly exit with that piece the split-off for example, which you might shrink the share count of the remaining company?
Larry Culp:
Well Steve, I'd like to think that everything that we do is shareholder-friendly, right? I mean, we take a strong view here and you know, from seeing me in other roles that we want to create long-term shareholder value with the cumulative effect of everything that we do. I think with respect to Healthcare what we can confirm today is that we're on the path toward an IPO here in 2019. Timing is still TBD. So we don't have a date. Like me on my senior prom. I just don't have a date for you today but I think in time, we'll have more clarity. With respect to Baker Hughes, I mean we talked about that as part of that $50 billion pool of options to go to. I think that the high probability there is for us is to sell our shares. We certainly are approached by various folks, who have an interest in a stake in that company. And again, we don't have a timetable per se to share with you today but we want to reiterate our view to dispose of that stake in an orderly manner, which again we think is conducive to value creation for our shareholders.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thanks. And just as a follow-up. I didn't have a prom date and I've been called worse than Steve but as unrelated follow-up, if we think about what you're going through in insurance right now, the comment about the statutory review. Is that to indicate Larry or Jamie that even if there is some adverse outcome as it relates to that statutory review, it would not affect your near-term funding needs and instead those would be tacked onto the tail, so to speak of what you're planning from reserve build?
Jamie Miller:
Well, Jeff what I was referring to there was that, it's really the statutory calculation not the GAAP that drives the statutory funding needs. We are right in the middle of that process. We continue to expect to contribute about $2 billion to the insurance entities in 2019. We'll conclude that process over the next three to four weeks. But at this point that is what we expect.
Larry Culp:
Sorry about that Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thanks.
Operator:
From Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell.
Julian Mitchell:
Morning. Maybe as the first question on Power. I understand, you're reticent to give too much forward-looking color but perhaps give us a sense of, if you look at the reported 2018 numbers EBIT loss of $800 million free cash of minus $2.7 billion. How would you look at the or characterize to us the underlying figures for both of those two items, if you strip out charges and projects execution overruns and so on? And maybe also on that point, if you could give any color as to the separation of gas and non-gas within Power? What sort of financial conditions that separation has uncovered in each of the two pieces?
Larry Culp:
Sure, sure. Let me do that and again this is very much a work in progress with a new team establishing new operating rhythms. But I would say that if we start on the service side of things, right? We've got a $62 billion backlog. We did take the charge in the fourth quarter $400 million on about a $3.7 billion contract asset book and we think that's appropriate just given what we see in the marketplace. I think we're encouraged though relative to the execution around pricing here. We have changed the way the folks in the field are compensated. Transitioning them, if you will from volume to margin. But again, there's a good bit of productivity post Alstom that we still need to get from the combined organizations here and that work is incomplete. But that's part of that operating loss that you see here at year's end. We are clearly dealing with lower demand in equipment, encouraged by some of the share points in the US market here in the back half. But again, we want to make sure we focused on profitable share. There we took $350 million of charges around the project book and we know that we have a lot of execution here to improve just in the way these projects are brought online. I think when you look at the vintages, we're encouraged by the progress that we see post the '16 underwriting class in terms of our margins on those projects. But that's very much a work in progress. I think with respect to the change in the structure of Power, again part of it is a cost reduction. We shared some of that in the prepared remarks but we also are getting better visibility on the underlying businesses P&L-by-P&L. So we talk about gas, we're combining services and equipment then we have the rest of our Power portfolio. As Jamie mentioned, we now take on all the cost for grid now that we own all of it that doesn't help us at all. But now we've got better line of sight on the discreet P&L's grid, Steam, Power Conversion and Nuclear all four of those businesses have meaningful profit improvement potential and we're going to manage them from the bottoms up accordingly. So clearly, we're at a break even from our P&L perspective absence some other charges, a lot of work to do here and as we have better visibility and more conviction around those improvements, we'll be back and we'll be back here soon with respect to how that plays out in '19 and '20.
Jamie Miller:
The other color I would just add there on negative free cash flow is as volume comes down in the factories and as our projects continue to work their way through, you see volume leveling but we've been in a declining frame here. So what's really flowing through on cash in addition to some of the other items Larry mentioned is a burn down of our progress billings and a burn down of our project payables. Situations where we receive projects in advance of constructing new equipment or where we received progress on projects and now we're in the phase of the project, where the payables and the costs are starting to come through. So that's also pressuring the Power of free cash flow. And as that levels that also starts to level.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks. And then my second question may be about a business, where there's better medium term visibility Aviation. You talked about the LEAP operating margin headwind last year. How do you see that moving in 2019 relative to that 160 bps? And then looking out beyond just this year anything on the horizon in terms of let's say 777X transition or NMA that you think could cause a major risk to the aviation free cash flow in margin profile?
Jamie Miller:
With respect to Aviation's merger and mix you saw strong fourth quarter and when we look at the remixing that's happening between CFM and LEAP significant increase in LEAP shipments in the quarter up 88% over the prior year. Year-over-year 2.4x up and you're seeing CFM come down meaningfully over those same periods. Next year, CFM will come down again about I'd say more than 50% of CFM deliveries will be reduced next year but the LEAP also ramps from the 1,118 we had this year up to 1,800-plus. So that remixing continues to occur. We mentioned on the call that it was a drag in 2018 of 160 basis points. We do expect continued some small drag next year but again Aviation's doing a really nice job offsetting that with services growth. They're shifting in military and the company-funded R&D.
Larry Culp:
We're clearly in conversations with our major airframe customers about new platforms. I think at this point, it would be premature to suggest that we're going to have a cash flow headwind a material cash flow headwind around any of those programs here in '19.
Operator:
From Melius Research, we have Scott Davis. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Larry Culp:
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Davis:
And Larry I don't buy that you're going to have a prom date. That's nonsense. Even I had a prom date. I was bald at birth. All kidding aside, the one number you gave that was new, which was kind of eye-popping to me, it was just $1.6 billion Power headquarter number. Can you put some context around that? It seems just like such a insane number. But I don't know really what you're including in that I guess as far as talking about headquarter?
Larry Culp:
Well, there's -- it's a large number and again, I think we've got line of sight here in the near terms Scott to bring that down by about 300. And effectively, as you know, we've done a lot horizontally both at corporate and at the segment levels over time for the businesses. So it's not as if it's unhelpful or wasteful but there clearly is an adjustment we can take here as we move those activities into the businesses and I think over time as the businesses have true ownership for them that they are in their operating budgets as opposed to an allocation from corporate. They're likely to find opportunities for further savings. But we don't do it primarily for the cost reduction. I think we really do it to help drive visibility and accountability P&L-by-P&L. I think I've shared with some folks that early on in my tenure we would talk about Power as if it was one business. It's obviously a number of businesses. Some better than others, different issues here and there. I think we've got better visibility on those issues. It's not perfect today but as we get that visibility I think better position to take meaningful action to drive better results across that portfolio.
Scott Davis:
That make sense. And then the other thing is just not totally clear is, if the New World is 25 gigawatts to 30 gigawatts, which arguably a lot of people can say the New World is 25 or even a little lower but how do you get your capacity down anywhere close to that? I mean you've got big factories, lots of capital equipment, lot of pressure from governments and unions and everybody else. Is it realistic to be able to get that down in the next two years? it's something that's closer to 30?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think it is realistic, right? There are going to be a number of competing priorities and pressures but we took $1 billion of cost out last year. I think we are putting the -- we're putting up the parameters of a program to build on what we did last year. So Scott, we have to do this. We absolutely have to do this. I think we know, it's a multiyear effort but the challenge here around margins is not simply one of capacity. Right back to the earlier question around pricing. Productivity both in new equipment and in the field on services. It's a whole host of things that I think give us the optimism that we can drive better margin and cash performance in this business. But we have to prove that to you.
Operator:
And from Citi, we have Andrew Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Hey. Good morning, guys. Larry, one of the biggest issues I think that investors have had when GE is the concern that legacy liabilities will continue to surprise the company. The FIRREA agreement with the DOJ seems like a positive development in that regard, so does is the relatively small LTC adjustment. But at this point, do you feel reasonably confident that you've identified all the skeletons in the closet in a level of negative surprises are really going to start dropping moving forward?
Larry Culp:
I don't think I would ever say, even on my last day here that we have found all the skeletons, right? I don't tend to take absolute positions. But that said I think you're spot on. The news today around WMC is good both with respect to a resolution and the fact that we came in right where we were reserved. So we can begin to move that episode behind us. I think we're encouraged by the results that Jamie walked you through relative to the LRT. But again, the cash requirements really come from the stat and not the GAAP test and that will still has a few more weeks to run. But in the absence of no new news again with a lot of fresh eyes and it's not my fresh eyes we've got a new GC, we've got a new controller new to GE in their first years. I think that is a positive sign that we aren't adding to the list. We're going to be as open and transparent as we possibly can, when we find things. And we're going to help you understand what we're doing to address them but I'm encouraged by what I see and what has not arisen here in nearly four months time.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
And Larry, you're pretty clear about having no plans to sell GECAS. It sounds quite definitive but obviously there's a lot of noise out there. So maybe I could step back and ask you how you weigh the urgency to get GE Capital debt down versus keeping the strong earnings stream in tact from GECAS that you have in the business?
Larry Culp:
Well, I think that we're -- we're frankly keen not to comment on every rumor on every innuendo that's out there. GECAS is one business that we get inbounds on with some frequency. But frankly. We get inbounds on everything but my desk. I think it speaks to the quality of the assets. Again, I think we can delever and bring that net debt down from $55 billion to something closer to $25 billion. We've got a number of options. We are mindful of the trades when we move assets out and the impact on our earnings and cash capability. But again, you elevate to the strategic level, I think we are clear. We need to delever and we're going to work the plan that we've outlined here today and that's really is I think as simple and as straightforward as it gets.
Operator:
From Bank of America Merrill Lynch, we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Hi, good morning. Just a question. You mentioned that you took $400 million of contract asset writedown in Power. And my understanding is that sort of culturally is a big deal. Shall we see more of these writedowns? How far along are we in the process of evaluating the book there?
Jamie Miller:
We asked our new controller, when he started to take a clean look at everything across the company. And they -- as they went through their normal standards CSA reviewed this quarter did pay particular attention to higher risk contracts, just to make sure that we were thinking about them cleanly and the right way. What we talked about on the call, which was really comprised of three different buckets were the results of that review. So as we mentioned before, we had adjustments for utilization, some on pricing pressure and then just our standard cost updates. On the utilization side, when you look at the CSA book, utilization has been relatively flat and it's demonstrating actually a fairly healthy profile. And I think it just continues to support the base that gas continues to be an important source of energy generation. Now some geographies are impacted more by some of the renewables adoptions. And as you look at our book, our concentration of geographies isn't largely in those areas but we did see some true-ups that we took in places like California and Turkey just to make sure we were reflecting our best view on that. On the pricing pressure, we are seeing that in some contracts. These are high margin long term contracts. And when we do go through renegotiation process on some of these, we are often able to offset that pricing with scope expansion and cost productivity. Having said that we wanted to make sure we had a realistic view of how we saw the portfolio, when we went through these reviews. We always do standard cost updating in our portfolio, that's just like you do in manufacturing. Those standard cost roll through this quarter as well. And part of that also reflected a small impact from the stage one blade issue but that's something that we had expected would happen, there as well.
Andrew Obin:
Got you. And just on GE Capital. How much incremental capital? You said $4 billion in '19 but how much incremental, do you need to put in 2020 to achieve your leverage targets? Thank you.
Jamie Miller:
Yeah. So Andrew at this point, we're talking about 2019, which is the $4 billion. And as we said as we get beyond 2019, we obviously understand. We will continue to put capital or expect to continue to put capital into the insurance subsidiaries. That will be funded through a combination of GE Capital earnings asset sales liquidity and GE parents support but at this point, we're not prepared to talk more fully about that.
Operator:
From Deutsche Bank, we have Nicole DeBlase. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase:
So, good morning. So I just want to start on Power kind of a two part question. You reduced headcount by 15%, you reduced footprint by 30%. I know that pricing is an important part of the equation of getting back to profitability here but I guess maybe what inning are you in with respect to what you need to do to get to the right level of capacity utilization? And then same topic different question. What exactly are you doing to improve Power execution since that keeps coming up as a driver of weaker profitability and when might we stop talking about that piece of the margin headwinds?
Larry Culp:
Well, Nicole I would say, we are in the very early innings relative to the turnaround at Power. I don't know, how else to frame it. Again, a new team, a new structure, new operating rhythms. When we talk about execution, we talk about daily management. What I'm really referring to is making sure that every day the folks in the field, the folks in the factories, the folks in the labs understand what the key operating metrics are that they are responsible for that feed into better margins both at the growth in the operating level in this business. So that takes time because it's not just a reporting exercise, right? It's a management exercise and making sure they not understand not only how they're being measured but how to go about actually getting better price, how to go about actually driving better material productivity. Execution in the field as well. Not only around cost but frankly more importantly around quality making sure we get into outages quickly and we solve issues for customers the first time and when we're not going back. Those are the source of things. And it is a big organization. It's a global organization. This is going to take a little while. But I'm optimistic that we'll see it in our operating metrics over time and that will in turn translate into better performance. We'll clearly get some lift sooner from the absence of the adjustments that we made at the end of the year but what I'm really focused on and what I think investors are to be focused on, are those underlying operating improvements.
Nicole DeBlase:
Okay, got it. That's helpful. Thanks, Larry. And just a really quick one to tie up. Good progress on corporate expense reduction this quarter. Would you say that the corporate expense that we saw in 4Q is indicative of the run rate for 2019? Or are there items there that we need to consider?
Jamie Miller:
I'd say it's roughly indicative. I think it'll be down slightly from that. It was a little bit higher in the quarter due to some onetime expenses we had but it's close. Little bit down from that in 2019.
Operator:
From RBC Capital Markets, we have Deane Dray. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Dean. Good morning.
Deane Dray:
I'd also like to add our welcome to Steve Winoker and wish him all the best.
Steve Winoker:
Thanks, Dean.
Deane Dray:
Looks like I have to burn one of my questions, what's more of a housekeeping question Larry is in the third quarter earnings you talked about plans for an Analyst meeting in early 2019. Looks like, there's still a lot of more specifics that have to get filled in in terms of guidance and especially on the cash flow side. Maybe you're not ready yet to host that meeting. But just where does that stand and what would the timing be?
Larry Culp:
Well, Dean again, I think we're sharing today what we can in terms of not only the fourth quarter but the actions that are under way and how we see 2019 shaping up. We know we're not answering every question that folks might have on their minds today. But we're not going to answer any question without a grounding and a level of conviction that we expect of ourselves and I think folks like yourselves and investors expect of us as well but we are indicating that we'll be back soon with more particularly as we work through some of the issues, we've talked about not only in our prepared remarks but also here in Q&A with respect to Power.
Deane Dray:
Okay. And Larry, I appreciate how you started off the call with all the changes in terms of the management approach and the accountability and voice of the customer. I mean that's --that was all good color to hear upfront. And then my second question is on the insurance side. We've got good news, what I see is good news on the loss recognition certainly not a new surprise. How does that change? In the third quarter, there was lots of calls for how to ring fence the long term insurance risk and where that might be. Where does that stand today in terms of priorities?
Larry Culp:
Well, Dean, again I want to make sure everybody understands that the LRT results here are a positive data point. I think that the stat test is going to be more important and I think we don't expect any major surprises but we'll have those results to share with you in a few weeks. This is a long term liability right? And we have our commitments with respect to the permitted practice. We're in a position to fulfill those. We certainly get inbounds here as well from folks, who'd like to take this book off of our hands. But not necessarily in a structure and at a value that would make sense for the GE shareholder. So I suspect that as we enhance our disclosures, they'll be better understanding of what this is. Certainly I suspect there will still be some debate. But I'm optimistic that the transparency will lead to better understanding and we can talk about this in a fact-based way. People can understand what that means. Is it with us forever? Or is there a way to ring fence it is to use your word again, I'm not going to rule anything out. But I think right now, what we're trying to do is to make sure that everyone understands, what it is and what our obligations are around the insurance book. So hopefully, some helpful disclosures in that regard today with more to come in the K once we're on the other side of the stat test.
Operator:
And from Gordon Haskett, we have John Inch. Please go ahead.
John Inch:
Good morning, everybody. Good morning, Larry.
Larry Culp:
Hey, John. Good morning.
John Inch:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Winoker:
Good morning, John.
John Inch:
Good morning, Steve. Just on the capital guide. I may have missed this Jamie and Larry but what is capital guide for 2019? What are you expecting? And what kind of, are we expecting from say gains from the $10 billion of asset sales? So it's almost like, what's the guide ex the $10 billion on earnings? And also Jamie, what was Healthcare's free cash flow in 2018?
Jamie Miller:
Well, with respect to GE Capital's 2019 as Larry mentioned, we're not offering 2019 guidance today. So that's something that we will be sharing with you in the near term but not today. And with respect to Healthcare's free cash flow, I think it's well understood that that is a strong cash flow business. It's a flow business unlike some of our long cycle and I think there's been a lot of valuation maps that's been out there. So while we're not disclosing Healthcare's free cash flow, I think you can probably come to a pretty reasonable conclusion there about what that is.
John Inch:
Okay. I think we were targeting break even in capital this year and we ended up losing money. I'm just wondering, what is -- what actually changed in the mix from Jamie, when you originally thought would be break even to the loss? And also in your cash walk on the fourth quarter cash walk, the Baker Hughes free cash flow is a positive $800 million. It looks like Baker actually generated positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter. So why would that be a positive? Why isn't that a negative drawing it out, it's just a technical question, I guess.
Jamie Miller:
Well, first on GE Capital. We had the LRT results in the fourth quarter so that was $65 million. We actually had tax benefits of less than we expected as well. That impacted us by about $240 million. And then we had some other marks in the portfolio in the second half. So that was really the large difference between what we had expected and where we ended up. And then with respect to Baker Hughes. We are backing out free cash flow. So that might be a labeling issue on the slide there. It's less Baker Hughes free cash flow. If you back it out and you have the dividend.
Operator:
And from Goldman Sachs, we have Joe Ritchie. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning.
Larry Culp:
Hey, Joe. Good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Good morning, guys. And so just I know, you're a little reluctant to answer much on the 2019 guide. But I could just may be ask on just Power free cash flow, the $2.7 billion burn this year. Do you expect '19 to be better than 2018 from a Power free cash flow perspective?
Larry Culp:
I think we're at a place, where we're sharing with you today everything that we know, everything we can commit to. And again, we'll be back with more detail particularly with respect to Power and cash soon. But we're just, we're not in a position where we're able to do that. But clearly, again, hopefully the color around the $2.7 billion that we burned last year is helpful. With respect to framing the magnitude of the task and the challenge, when we understand and are serious about addressing.
Joe Ritchie:
Getting the disclosure on the $2.7 billion definitely helpful and will hopefully get some more color on the path in the near term. But I guess, if I can maybe focus then on just the onetime issues that occurred in the second half of 2018. Specifically, around the blade issue. Is it fair to say that those issues are at least behind you? And how should we think about what the call it roughly, it sounds like it was like roughly $700 million or so in quantifiable charges there. What does that relate to? Does that relate to all orders that you received so far in each turbine. Just any color on that would be helpful?
Larry Culp:
Yes. Well the -- when we talk about the cost for the blade issue, it's really a function of going out and effectively replacing these blades sooner than we were anticipating, right? Because the useful life is effectively shorter than we had anticipated unfortunately. But we think we understand that. That work is under way with respect to the installed base. And again, I think it's regrettable. I think our customers when you talk to them understand, what's happened how we're going about remediating the issue in the field and I'd like to think that that is not something, we're going to continue to site with respect to the margin pressure in the business here in '19.
Jamie Miller:
Yeah. And just walking back from third quarter and maybe updating today. So third quarter, we had $240 million of warranty and other accruals related to the stage one blade. We also mentioned that that we expected to experience a similar amount of that over time as the worked outperformed in our services book. So part of what I mentioned earlier on those charges includes that stage one blade issue started to come through the services updates.
Larry Culp:
But there are host of elements of that
Jamie Miller:
Absolutely.
Larry Culp:
That update not just the very.
Jamie Miller:
Yeah. It's a very small issue in the quarter. But it's just part of that that bleed off as we do the work.
Larry Culp:
Thanks, Joe. And our final question from Cowen and Company, we have Gautam Khanna. Please go ahead.
Gautam Khanna:
Yes. Thank you. Good morning, guys.
Larry Culp:
Good morning.
Gautam Khanna:
Two questions. First, I was wondering, if you have any changes being contemplated to the incentive comp triggers for senior management as we approach the whole proxy time frame? Any changes to the PSU triggers that you're thinking about now?
Larry Culp:
Nothing that we can reference this morning.
Gautam Khanna:
Okay. And I was wondering, if you could talk about when you expect pricing to bottom and the transactional Power aftermarket? Or if it has already in your opinion? And how will that pricing now compares to maybe where it was a year ago?
Jamie Miller:
I think that's a question that depends on geography and it depends on the scope and the kinds of work, we're really looking to do with our customers. Over the last year, as we've talked about before as Scott has come in. He has really refocused our transactional group, to focus more on in some cases less scope but higher margin work as we do it. You know, it's a competitive market but even having said that that as we have our orders come in, we're seeing order CM or margin rate up in some cases 10, 12, 15 points on our order book and it's been consistently increasing throughout the year. Now as Larry mentioned earlier on the call, we're not yet seeing all of that drop through primarily because of field execution issues and operational issues. But these are things that we believe are fixable. And over time as we really seek to increase our share in that book, it really capture the kind of work that we want to capture the higher margin work, the operational execution piece of that we think should flow through. But with the respect to the margin pressure generally, I should say pricing pressure, these are very competitive markets that have a lot of capacity. So I think that dynamic will continue as we go through the next couple of years and until the market levels out and until we see the capacity leveling out as well.
Steve Winoker:
I know, we ran out of time before we could get to everyone in the queue. So you can reach me and my team through the day. But I want to thank everybody for joining us. The replay of today's call will be available this afternoon on our Investor website. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - General Electric Co. H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co. Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.
Analysts:
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Scott Reed Davis - Melius Research LLC Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Julian Mitchell - Barclays Capital, Inc. Nigel Coe - Wolfe Research LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Steven Winoker - UBS Securities LLC John Walsh - Credit Suisse Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC John G. Inch - Gordon Haskett Research Advisors Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. Justin Laurence Bergner - Gabelli Funds LLC
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric third-quarter 2018 earnings conference call. At this time all participants in a listen-only mode. My name is Brandon and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over your host for today's conference Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Communications please go ahead
Todd Ernst - General Electric Co.:
Thank you, Brandon. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to GE's third quarter earnings webcast. I'm joined this morning by our Chairman and CEO Larry Culp, and CFO Jamie Miller. Before we start, I'd like to remind you that the press release, presentation, supplemental and 10-Q have been available since earlier today on our Investor website at www.ge.com. Please note that some of the statements we are making today are forward-looking statements and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filing and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. And now, I'll turn the call over to Larry. Larry.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Todd, thanks. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We have a lot to share with you, so let's get to it. During the third quarter, we saw positive results in most segments with outstanding performance in our Aviation (01:36-02:19) Now, I know there's been renewed speculation on our future strategic direction. The strategy we announced on June 26 to create a more focused portfolio that sets up our businesses to win and strengthening our balance sheet is today the right plan going forward. Consistent with this strategy, we are announcing two actions this morning. First, GE plans to reduce its quarterly dividend from $0.12 to $0.01 per share beginning with the board's next dividend declaration, which is expected to occur in December 2018. This change will allow GE to retain about $3.9 billion of cash per year compared to the prior payout level. Going forward, we will target a dividend payout ratio in line with peers over time. Second, we will take a materially different approach to running our Power business. The past 30 days, I've spent a lot of time with Russell Stokes and his team. It has become clear to us that we need to simplify the business structure. Therefore, today, we are announcing our intent to reorganize Power into two units, both of which will report directly to me. The first is a unified Gas lifecycle business combining our product and services group gas power systems and power services with the second constituting the portfolio of Steam, Grid, Nuclear, and Power Conversion. Additionally, we intend to consolidate the Power headquarters, Gas Power systems and Power Services teams into the new Gas lifecycle business, effectively eliminating the Power headquarters structure. We have much more to do to improve our performance in Power and we intend to move quickly to enhance our execution agility and improve our cost structure. These actions are a start in bolstering GE for the road ahead. In the last month, I have visited many of our primary business locations. Getting to know this company better from the inside has only strengthened my conviction that GE has considerable strengths. The talent here is real. The technology is special. And the global reach of the GE brand and our relationships are truly impressive. But GE needs to change. Our team knows this. In my old job, we acquired dozens of good but often underperforming businesses. And we always came prepared to convince the acquired teams that they and we needed to drive change. That is not the case here. Our GE team needs no convincing. They really want direction to know how to change. And while I don't have all the answers after one month, I do have a few early impressions. We could use a lot more out and a good bit less up around here, meaning we need to focus more on customers and competition and, frankly, less on corporate. We're going to strike a better balance between managing and reporting so that we ensure we're properly focused on the daily operating rhythms, which drive our actual financial results well ahead of our reporting cycles. Strong daily management makes reporting a lot easier. First things first And we need to accelerate our progress on cash generation. Changes to our compensation system and internal reporting this year were a good start, but we need to operationalize real improvements on cash through business processes in every business, every day. And with that, let me turn it to Jamie for a more detailed discussion of the quarter.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Thanks, Larry. I'll start with our consolidated quarterly performance. Orders were strong at $31.4 billion, up 7% reported and 13% organically. This was driven by equipment orders, which were up 22% organically and services up 5%. Revenues were down 4%, with Industrial revenues down 5%. Organically, Industrial revenues increased 1% driven by Renewables, Aviation, Healthcare, and Oil & Gas. Industrial profit, which includes Corporate, was down 23% reported and 17% organically, driven by declines in Power and Renewables, partially offset by solid growth in Oil & Gas, Aviation and Transportation. Industrial profit margins were 8.1% in the quarter, down 180 basis points year-over-year on a reported and organic basis, driven by declines in Power and Renewables. Year-to-date, margins were down 50 basis points organically. Net earnings per share was negative $2.62 which includes income from discontinued operations related to GE Capital. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.14 and I'll walk the GAAP continuing EPS to adjusted EPS on the right-hand side of the page. Starting from GAAP continuing EPS of negative $2.63, we had $0.01 of gains, principally from the sale of Value-Based Care, partially offset by held-for-sale marks in Lighting, Aviation and Power. We also booked multiple impairments this quarter related to Power. The first was goodwill. As disclosed previously, we had a thin margin between fair value and carrying value for both Power Generation and Grid. And in the third quarter, both businesses failed their goodwill impairment test, which required us to fair value the assets of the businesses with any remaining value being allocated to goodwill. The size of the charge results from the significant value associated with the unrecognized legacy assets, principally our profitable services backlog, long-standing customer relationships and our gas turbine technology. And the value of these assets essentially squeezed out any remaining room for goodwill. Based on our best estimate, we booked a charge of $22 billion, $19 billion related to our Power Gen reporting unit and $3 billion related to Grid. Most of the $22 billion charge is related to the Alstom acquisition, which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2015. We will true this up in the fourth quarter as it gets finalized. Also, the SEC expanded the scope of its ongoing investigation to include the goodwill charge. The Department of Justice is also investigating this charge. And the other areas that we have previously reported are part of the SEC's investigation. We are cooperating with the SEC and DOJ as they continue their work on these matters. On restructuring and other items, we had $0.05 of charges related to intangibles and long-lived assets in Power Conversion where we continue to restructure the business in the face of market challenges. We also incurred $0.06 of restructuring, principally in Corporate and Power, $0.02 of charges related to BD transactions and $0.01for our share of Baker Hughes GE's restructuring. Lastly, the remaining $0.01 related to an unrealized mark associated with our equity investment in Pivotal. Excluding these items, adjusted EPS was $0.14 in the quarter. Moving to cash, adjusted Industrial free cash flow was $1.1 billion for the quarter and negative $300 million year to date. Income depreciation and amortization totaled $1 billion after adjusting for the $22 billion non-cash goodwill impairment. Working capital was negative $100 million for the quarter as we had a small build in inventory ahead of fourth quarter shipments offset by increased payables volume. Contract assets were a use of cash of $100 million, and we spent $900 million in gross CapEx or $600 million ex Baker Hughes GE. On the right-hand side of the page, you can see the walk of the GE cash balance. We ended third quarter with $9.1 billion of cash in bank excluding Baker Hughes GE. And a few highlights
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Jamie, thanks. Right now, I'm spending most of my time with the Power business with real help from Jamie and our Vice Chair, David Joyce. We need to establish a realistic outlook there, particularly for the Gas business, and drive improvements from there. The moves we've announced today, in addition to the daily, weekly and monthly operating disciplines we are instilling, will drive transparency and accountability on the path to improved operating performance. When we have our arms around this, we will provide you with our outlook in 2019. As I mentioned earlier, we also intend to maintain a disciplined financial policy and are committed to strengthening and delevering the balance sheet over the next few years. In summary, GE has and will continue to have a strong commitment to all its stakeholders. We are making GE a stronger company operationally and financially. I'm truly excited to lead this storied company into its next chapter. I've spent my career improving strong franchise businesses and taking them from good to great. We know what to do. Now is the time to execute. Before we go to Q&A, I want to acknowledge the pent-up demand for information that you have on a range of topics, but I've been in this job for all of 30 days. I will share with you what I know and can today, but please know that I'll be back to you with more definitive plans and views in the months ahead. In closing, I also want to thank John Flannery for his 30 years of exceptional service to this company. John also made a number of important contributions as CEO. I have the utmost respect for John and wish him nothing but the best going forward. With that, Todd, back to you.
Todd Ernst - General Electric Co.:
Thanks, Larry. Brandon, let's open up the call for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. And from Vertical Research we have Jeffrey Sprague. Please go ahead.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Hey, Jeff. Good morning.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Good morning. Larry, best of luck. Hey, my first question, and I think it's everyone's question really, is the balance sheet here. And just wondering as you're sitting there with your fiduciary hat on looking at an unstable, perhaps, global economic environment, certainly relative to what the market's telling us, do you see the need to move more quickly on the balance sheet? Is there something with these lawsuits or something that tie your hands on moving with the balance sheet? Could you just give us a little bit more color on how you might move to more quickly lift the cloud and stabilize things here?
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Jeff, let me take that, and then Jamie probably has some perspectives as well. I think we're mindful of the morphing environment, but perhaps more mindful of our leverage situation today. So, coming in as a Director earlier in the year, that was clear. All the more true today as Chairman and CEO. I think what we've tried to do throughout the course of the year is move as briskly but smartly as we possibly can. The dividend move today, to me, fundamentally straightforward, given our desire to preserve that cash to help delever the business. We have a lot of options. We laid these out, I think, in some detail back in June. Certainly, the strategy that we talked about relative to derisking and focusing the portfolio is very much intact today. How we move through those various options, the timing, the pace, the sequencing, something very much on the table to make sure that we tend to the balance sheet as quickly as we can. We don't want to be rushed. We don't want to be rash, but we need to get after this straightaway and I hope today's move on the dividend is evidence of that intent in action.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Yeah, and the only other thing I would add, Jeff, you mentioned lawsuits. There really is no consideration around that in terms of something that would be a constraint to that plan.
Operator:
And from JPMorgan, we have Steve Tusa, please go ahead.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Hey, Steve. Good morning.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey. Good morning, Larry. So, I guess as a fresh voice in the room there, you guys kind of addressed the insurance thing, that seems like it's going to be a little bit bigger than expected but there's been a lot of information coming out from these disclosures from the shareholder lawsuits that talks about the accounting for LTSAs and contract assets. Several whistleblowers out there talking about the behavior in the past. I'm wondering, in your seat, if you've really delved into that and you're comfortable enough there to unequivocally rule out the need for more capital and specifically the potential for an equity raise?
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Steve, there are a number of questions there. Let me try to take them in order. Let me state in a straightforward fashion, we have no plans for an equity raise. I think with respect to the service business within Power, this is a good opportunity for us to frankly manage this franchise better than we have. I've been encouraged by what I've seen at the operational level. Clearly there are a lot of issues from the past that the team is dealing with but the opportunity here to work closely with our customers around this installed base and do so in a way that's a win-win for them and for us I think it's clear. I'm excited about this. Now it's not a business in the state that it should be in, or could be in, will be in, but I think a good bit of the time we've spent with Russell and Scott and the team has been very much geared toward putting those improvements in motion. I think as we exit this year, go into next year, at the operational level look for continued progress there.
Operator:
And from Melius Research, we have Scott Davis. Please go ahead.
Scott Reed Davis - Melius Research LLC:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Hey, Scott. Good morning.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Hi, Scott.
Scott Reed Davis - Melius Research LLC:
Welcome, Larry, and good luck to you. It's not going to be an easy job, got a lot to fix. I wish you the best of luck.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Well, I appreciate that Scott.
Scott Reed Davis - Melius Research LLC:
Better you than me.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Any time you want to join us, let me know but I'm excited to be here. This is an outstanding company right. The people here I think are strong. The technology again is impressive and in 30 days I've begun to appreciate all the more the reach and the impact this company has around the world. We can do better than where we are today, but this is an important company and I'm pleased to be on the team.
Scott Reed Davis - Melius Research LLC:
We're glad to have you. But anyway so, my question really is on the business model at GE, it's so different than Danaher. The two biggest businesses, Power and aircraft engines, the company is willing to sell the unit at a big loss in hopes of capturing the spare parts and that seems to be working in aerospace but doesn't seem to be working in Power. Can you fix Power without fixing how you go to market traditionally? Does something drastically need to change there?
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Well, Scott, it's hard to say that we don't need dramatic or drastic change in a business that is performing the way that Power is, right? I mean, in some respects, it's that simple. So, in my mind, beyond compliance and quality, everything is on the table at Power and I think Russell and the team would echo that if they were the call. There's no question that in my prior life I was really on the periphery of both the Power space and aerospace as well. Certainly, in the heart of Healthcare, but I'm of the view that there's a lot that I've done previously that's relevant as I join this team. I've driven a lot of change. Every time we brought a new company in, we were driving a lot of change. That was effectively the value proposition for our investors and I think over time we were able to do that. That change really comes as a function of revisiting assumptions, clarifying strategy, putting the right team together, driving operations day in, day out and clearly deploying capital in and around that business as appropriate. But in a more fundamental level, Scott, it's really about expectations, right? It's about making sure that problems are surfaced and solved and managing in a substantive not superficial way. I think all that's relevant. But to be clear, this isn't about me. This is about the 300,000 people on the payroll, myself included, that want and are committed to having GE in a better place and performing better, both for our customers and for shareholders.
Operator:
From Citi, we have Andrew Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Good morning, guys
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Andrew, good morning.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Larry or Jamie, obviously, you didn't give us EPS or cash guidance for the year, but industrial free cash flow in Q3 was arguably not as bad as feared. You did say that you would significantly miss your previous cash flow and earnings target for the year. How should we think about GE's ability to generate earnings and especially cash in what seasonally is usually a strong Q4. And then, really more importantly, when we think about next year, are there any guide posts you would give us at this point as you review the businesses, Larry? Should the Power business in particular be less of a drag on cash in 2019?
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Yeah. So, let me take the first discussion on that one. So, as you noted, we're not offering updated guidance right now. But as we look at the businesses, we see real strength in Healthcare and in Aviation. And in Power, we just are seeing continued impacts from the lower market penetration I talked about. Deal closure delays and uncertainties and just other operational and project execution issues, and we do see those continuing into 2019. But as we pull back, fourth quarter, as you referenced, has always been a significant volume quarter for GE and we expect this fourth quarter to be the same. Again, with strong volume in units at Aviation, Healthcare, Renewables and at Power, and Power is also back-end loaded historically, which is another reason that as we really look at Power and the visibility we have there, both with respect to the market and the operations, we're positioning our views on that right now the way we are
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Andrew, Larry here. I hope that you and others will appreciate that when we talk about numbers on a forward-looking basis, we want to do so with conviction and confidence. I don't want to fool you, let alone myself, in thinking 30 days in that I can give you that today. So, with respect to the quarter and certainly the outlook for next year, there'll be a time and place for that. But make no mistake, we know that the Power business has to perform better and that is what we're going to spend a ton of time on once we get past earnings today.
Operator:
Thank you. From Deutsche Bank, we have Nicole DeBlase. Please go ahead
Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning, Larry.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Good morning, Nicole
Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, I guess maybe we could talk a little bit about Power. So, just based on the actions that you're announcing today, is there any sense of the level of savings that those like the headquarter consolidation could actually drive, just to give us a sense of what the baseline of savings could be as we move into 2019?
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Nicole, I think what we've done today is really share both internally and publicly the organizational architecture, if you will, that we have in mind. There are a number of details that Russell, the team and I will be working through in the days and weeks to come. And as those details become more clear, we'll share those first internally, and then we will share them with you and others publicly. So give us a little bit of time to work through that. I think in the interim we want to leave that open. But I would just underscore that while there is an opportunity to improve our cost structure, dare I say it, imperative given our current performance, a good bit of what we are talking about here is also geared toward running the businesses better. I think by consolidating the headquarters and really putting that support around the Gas business, we'll all have a better line of sight on the action day-to-day in that business and be able to make decisions I think more crisply with more transparency and more accountability. Having the rest of that Power portfolio coming in directly as well through a different path will give us an opportunity to see those P&Ls clearly without any noise and work business by business to drive improvements there. And I think that's a better way for us to operate. We can come together and do things together that make sense, but we're going to make sure that we're maximizing and optimizing those individual businesses first.
Operator:
From Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Good morning, Julian
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Good morning, Julian.
Julian Mitchell - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Good morning. Maybe my question would be around GE Capital. Jamie, you had talked about more work to be done looking at the liabilities relating to tax, WMC, insurance and so on. Obviously that will set alarm bells ringing given the scale of miscalculations at things like insurance and so forth. So maybe just give us an update on how sizable you think some of these liabilities might be? Is there a risk that they do end up similar to the scale of the insurance adjustment earlier in the year? And also related to that, maybe I missed it, but I didn't see any reiteration of the $25 billion capital asset sale plan by the end of 2019, so I just wondered if you have an update on the pace of those asset exits at Capital?
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Sure. So with respect to the first piece, at this point we see at least $3 billion of capital contributions into GE Capital, as I mentioned. We continue to shrink GE Capital, and we still are on our plan for $25 billion of asset reductions. To date we've seen asset reductions via sale of about $7 billion. You saw $11 billion down on the balance sheet. A lot of that is just seasonal timing and some other shifting. And we do expect to see another big tranche be sold in the fourth quarter, so well on track there. And then with respect to the other elements we're monitoring, it's a little bit of a moving target. We monitor tax reform. We've got some interpretations we expect to either be cleared up or sent out in the fourth quarter. That could cause some tax adjustments in the fourth quarter for GE Capital. WMC is something we continue to monitor, and then our annual fourth quarter insurance evaluation as well. With respect to that, we just reset that last year, as you mentioned. And interest rates are up more than planned, which is helpful, but it's a process we go through. And it's something we're monitoring. And I'd say when I look out in 2019, 2020 and beyond, GE Capital's resources are just more limited as it shrinks, so GE may need to support GE Capital further if necessary. And when we think about either achieving desired capital levels, derisking debt maturities, those are the kinds of things we're thinking about. But right now as we look at 2019, we see the three things I mentioned as the monitoring point.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Thanks, Julian.
Operator:
From Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe - Wolfe Research LLC:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Good morning, Nigel.
Nigel Coe - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hey, Larry. So you mentioned obviously the portfolio plan laid out in June remains the base case, and that profile plan's key levers in delevering and derisking balance sheet. Can you just give us an update on the timing on the moving pieces for Baker Hughes and GE Healthcare? That's the first part of my question. And the second part would be, you've obviously spent most of your time so far with Power. Obviously, Power results this quarter were less than – obviously, well below what we expected. Can you maybe just quantify what those onetime items were hitting the P&L this quarter? And how you see the path of cost reduction in Power progressing? Thank you.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Sure. Sure. Nigel, I would say with respect to the strategy, again, what we're reinforcing today is the strategic framework that we highlighted in June with respect to derisking and delevering the balance sheet and really setting the businesses up to win and, in some cases, businesses in an independent form. You mentioned Healthcare. We talked about that back in the summertime. Today, I don't think we really have much to say relative to Baker Hughes. They've got their earnings call here shortly. I think what we can say is that our intent, as expressed in June, holds and that you should expect us, in an orderly fashion over several years, to implement that objective. I think with respect to Healthcare, we're still of the view that Healthcare operating in an independent form is probably what is best for that business and that team. Might the timing and sequencing there change relative to some other things that we're working on, too early to tell, but it's certainly something that Kieran [Murphy] and I have been talking about.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Yeah, and I'll jump in here on Power, you asked about the negative Op profit in the quarter and some of the different charges. So I talked through earlier the goodwill and the Power Conversion intangibles. Focusing on Power operations, in the quarter, we had $240 million of charges on the blade issue with respect to warranty and maintenance reserves. We saw about $400 million of project reserves and other execution issues and about $150 million of just some other execution issues. We saw lower volume in the quarter and if you really put that back together, Power probably came in about as expected operationally, with the exception of these charges that are incrementally flowing through.
Operator:
From RBC Capital Markets, we have Deane Dray. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Hey, Deane. Good morning.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Morning, Deane.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Covered a lot of territory so far and maybe some broad brush questions for you, Larry. First would be, what do you think are the – 30 days in, the biggest misperceptions that people on the outside have right now about GE? And then related is, you're coming in from the outside and you're basically on unfamiliar ground. You're surrounded by senior managers who didn't grow up with DBS, don't know the playbook. How are you set with building out your team, basically your inner circle of advisers?
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Sure. Well, let me take those in order. The biggest misperceptions, Deane, there are a lot of people around GE that know the company far better than I do, right. In this role for 30 days, on the board for less than a year, I won't claim any special expertise but, again, I think as you get into the business, I have been truly impressed with the talented people I've met really around the world. This team's been through a lot the last several years. The company perhaps doesn't enjoy the reputation in certain quarters that it once did. But people here are committed to embracing that reality and changing it. And I take a lot of comfort and strength from that. Frankly, I'm not sure when my board colleagues came to me, that I would've stepped into this role hadn't I been out on the road over the course of the summer. Visiting our business and our team in China, getting the opportunity to walk a couple of plants in Power, getting out with David Joyce and the Aviation team and really seeing the strengths of GE that go a bit perhaps underappreciated today. And I don't want that to sound like I'm sugar-coating our reality. This is not a quarter that we're particularly proud of, but, that said, Aviation knocked the cover off the ball and Healthcare wasn't too far behind, Transportation in a good place. We really like what we're going to do strategically there with the merger. So there are good things going on here. That doesn't necessarily take away from today's headlines, but there are things we can do to build on, this team, these assets, these strengths and that's what we're going to do. With respect to the team, Deane, you and I both know, we share a passion for the local ballclub here. Alex Cora just won a World Series, as best I can tell, largely with the team that was on the field a year ago that didn't do so well. So I am listening to a lot of people here in these first weeks. That will continue, listening, learning. But again, I feel good about the group that we have here and we're committed to building a stronger General Electric.
Operator:
From Bank of America Merrill Lynch we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes. Good morning. We've been getting a lot of question on GE Capital, particularly the aircraft leasing business. Can you just walk us through what you guys are seeing in terms of book value of the assets? And just a broader question, as you look at GE Capital and as you sort of make a statement about no capital raise, does that mean that you feel that GE Capital – you are comfortable with where GE Capital values are or are you saying that, look, I'm only in for 30 days and it's going to take us a while to get through those? So just two-part question. Thank you.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Yes. Andrew, on GECAS, I would say with respect to asset values there, we're not seeing anything unusual come through. We can work with you through more offline to give you more specifics if there are specific questions on that. And then with respect to the discussion about an equity raise, I'm not sure I have anything more to add to what Larry said before.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
I don't have much to add either.
Operator:
Okay. From UBS, we have Steve Winoker. Please go ahead.
Steven Winoker - UBS Securities LLC:
Thanks. Good morning, all.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Good morning, Steve.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Good morning, Steve.
Steven Winoker - UBS Securities LLC:
Larry, if I think back to when Dave Cote took over Honeywell and Ed Breen took over Tyco in similarly difficult times and you've got Capital, the thing that's striking the most to me is at least these expanded investigations that came out today and the ongoing question about faith in the numbers that you've got to base your decisions on. So just trying to get a sense for what is giving – where are you in kind of your continuum of getting confidence into the underlying numbers that are at the core of basing the rest of the decisions on? And just before I go, if you can also just address Healthcare. You're saying it's very strong. Just seemed a little flat in terms of the growth up 3%. The rest of the segment peers seem to be doing a little bit better, a little confidence there, too, would be helpful. Thanks.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Yes. Steve, I would say with respect to my discovery work here and beginning to kick things into gear, it's early, but where I'm focused primarily is what we can change going forward in terms of the trajectory and the underlying performance. I think part of what we need to do at Power is wring out a little bit of the undue optimism that I think we referenced in our prepared remarks so that we can establish a baseline that we can build on, a baseline, frankly, for our own internal processes, let alone when we're talking about the business on the outside. In that regard, again, it's early, but I have conviction that there are things to build upon, there are improvements that are well within our reach and we just need to do that. And that's – again, it's not going to happen overnight. It's going to take some time, but I'm hopeful that we can build that credibility, deliver that performance over time.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Hey, Steve. And just a quick comment on Healthcare, as you asked about. Healthcare revenues were up 3% on an organic basis. We saw segment profit up 10%, a consistent basis. And when you really peel back the layers, we're seeing very consistent growth across the different regions, as well as in the product line. U.S. was down a bit this quarter. We expected to have tough comps again in the fourth quarter, but largely driven to big orders we had last year from the VA in the U.S. China strength continues. And what the business is really doing well is getting a really nice mix of growth in the market coupled with strong cost control and a real steady focus on how they're investing in R&D, so nice profile
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
And Steve, just to be clear, I think we're well aware that Aviation really was the standout force in the third quarter of this year. My comments about the strength of the Healthcare business were not rooted into the last 90 days but really looking at that business on a prospective basis. I think it's an outstanding business there, well positioned in a number of attractive submarkets, and we intend to grow that going forward.
Operator:
From Credit Suisse, we have John Walsh. Please go ahead.
John Walsh - Credit Suisse:
Hi. Good morning.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Good morning, John.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Good morning, John.
John Walsh - Credit Suisse:
Hi. So I wanted to actually talk about Aviation because that was clearly a source of strength in the quarter, and you reiterated your view of 15% plus on the OP line there. So that does imply sequentially that the margins are lighter. Obviously there is the LEAP ramp, or there's higher LEAP in Q4. But as we think about that longer term because it will be a big driver of the future GE, do you still believe the construct of holding the margins while you ramp LEAP is the right way to think about that business? Or has anything changed there?
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Yeah. I'll give a little bit of context on the quarter, the year and just a macro level. In the quarter, we just continue to see real underlying strength in the business. Global passenger travel up 6.8% year-to-date, passenger load factors at all-time high, which just means our engines are just flying more, which means we bill more hours under services contracts, we consume more parts as they go in for maintenance. We are seeing negative mix as the LEAP volume ramps. This has been partially offset by nice improvement in LEAP product cost and at services, like I mentioned, just a very strong spares rate and just strong spare part consumption on our T&M contracts. Peeling back and looking forward, we do see CFM coming down, but it's more than offset by military being stronger, the LEAP cost curve really coming down over the next few years and the services strength continuing. We expect to see continued healthy growth there, particularly as CFM continues to work its way through the services cycle. So backlog, strong revenue growth, air miles, strong services growth, and LEAP coming down the cost curve is probably the way to think about it.
John Walsh - Credit Suisse:
Thank you.
Operator:
From Goldman Sachs, we have Joe Ritchie. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Good morning, Joe.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Hi, Joe.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
So just a couple quick clarifications. Jamie, on the net leverage target, I didn't see you guys explicitly call out 2020, but you did mention in the next few years. Has that 2.5 times changed at all from a timing perspective? And then the second question, in just thinking about the comments around GE needing to support Capital beyond the $3 billion in capital infusion in 2019, is the new insurance policy going to make you revisit the $15 billion capital outlay over the next few years?
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
So with respect to the first question on the net debt to EBITDA, we intend to reach net debt to EBITDA of 2.5 times. We plan to achieve that over time with substantial progress through 2020. That's really how we're thinking about that right now. With respect to the – and I assume you're talking about the insurance accounting standard – that is something that, as I said, we expect will have a material impact on the financial statements. Not effective until 2021. It requires more granularity around loss testing. It changes the discount rate assumptions. And we'll evaluate that over the next couple of years, but it does not impact the statutory reserve accounting. And that is really what drives the capital funding requirements for insurance.
Operator:
From Gordon Haskett, we have John Inch. Please go ahead.
John G. Inch - Gordon Haskett Research Advisors:
Thank you. Morning, everybody.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Hey, John. Good morning.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Hey, John.
John G. Inch - Gordon Haskett Research Advisors:
Hi, guys. Jamie, what was the Capital stranded debt at the end of the third quarter? And as a follow-up, what would you say is the actual free cash of the businesses that we've committed to selling to try to discern what could be some sort of a normalized cash rate, say once working capital and restructuring balance? So I guess there's rail, ambulance, Distributed Power, Industrial Solutions. Is there any way to put that into a context?
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Yes. We've said before that the free cash flow of the businesses that we're selling is a little over $1 billion, about $1.2 billion in free cash flow. So that's some sizing there. And with respect to excess debt, pay-downs in 2018 will be $7 billion; 2019, we expect that to be about $9 billion and then we've got long-term debt maturities in 2020 in GE Capital of $16 billion and it's really a question there of issuances that might offset that. So that might give you a little bit of sizing there.
Operator:
From Cowen and Company, we have Gautam Khanna. Please go ahead.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Good morning.
Operator:
Gautam, your line is open.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Gautam?
Operator:
We'll take the next question from Oppenheimer. We have Christopher Glynn. Please go ahead.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Yes. Thanks. Good morning.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Good morning.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Good morning.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Yes. Just wondering as you look at GE Capital overall and the GECAS asset, curious if you see net positive value of the GE Capital balance sheet and earnings power here and if we should think of potentially selling GECAS as a silver bullet to shore up what might come with the accounting standard change in insurance and if you will not wait until 2021 to answer that rather than leave it as an overhang?
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
GECAS is a really strong business. Over the years, it's, I think, demonstrated its strength in terms of its risk and its underwriting and how it performs with low loss ratios over time. We think it's really advantaged because of its knowledge of the underlying assets. And due to that, we receive inbounds on this business all the time. We think it's a valuable franchise. We have not made any decisions or have plans right now to do anything with GECAS, but certainly that's something, as we think about the timing and pace of execution on our overall plan, that is something we could think about.
Operator:
And our last question comes from Justin Bergner with Gabelli and Company. Please go ahead.
Justin Laurence Bergner - Gabelli Funds LLC:
Good morning, everyone.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
Good morning.
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. - General Electric Co.:
Good morning.
Justin Laurence Bergner - Gabelli Funds LLC:
Are there other plans on the asset sale side within Industrial? There have been some sort of news reports about potential asset sales beyond the ones already announced.
Jamie S. Miller - General Electric Co.:
We've got our $20 billion disposition plan in motion. We've executed a number of those already this year. Distributed Power, as I mentioned, is on track to be sold in the fourth quarter. Transportation's on track for the first quarter. We do have a few Aviation businesses and Current and Lighting that we're still well underway in those processes. So those will likely come through as well. Beyond that, I think it really gets back to Larry's comments on Baker Hughes and Healthcare and a planned, orderly separation over time with Baker Hughes and over time, a separation of Healthcare as well.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now turn it back to Todd Ernst for closing remarks.
Todd Ernst - General Electric Co.:
Okay. Thanks, Brandon. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. The replay of today's call will be available this afternoon on our investor website. Have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect. Speakers, please stand by for your post conference.
Executives:
Matt Cribbins - VP, Investor Communications John Flannery - Chairman and CEO Jamie Miller - CFO
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Melius Research Andy Kaplowitz - Citigroup Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Steve Tusa - JP Morgan Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Julian Mitchell - Barclays Steven Winoker - UBS
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Christine and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matt Cribbins:
Good morning and welcome to GE’s second quarter earnings webcast. I’m joined by our Chairman and CEO, John Flannery; CFO, Jamie Miller; and our new Head of IR Todd Ernst. Before we start, I would like to remind you that the press release, presentation and supplemental have been available since earlier today on our investor website at www.ge.com/investor. Please note that some of the statements we are making today are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. And now, I will turn the call over to John Flannery.
John Flannery:
Thanks, Matt. The second quarter was an important one for GE. We’ve described 2018 as a reset year; and in the quarter, we made significant progress on that journey. At an overall Company level, we laid out our path to a simpler and stronger GE by announcing our broad portfolio of strategy going forward to drive shareholder value. The core of GE will consist of our Aviation, Power and Renewables businesses. We also announced our plans to move our Healthcare, BHGE and Transportation businesses out of the GE core to enable and pursue more focused growth strategies as standalone companies. We made significant ongoing progress on our tactical priorities. We have now closed the sales of Industrial Solutions and Value-Based Care. We also announced the merger of our Transportation business with Wabtec and our sale of Distributed Power. This essentially completes the announcement or actual closing of our target of $20 billion of dispositions. We moved on this with deliberation but with an eye for value as well. We are materially shrinking the size of GE Capital with planned asset reductions of $25 billion over the next two years. We continue to take out structural costs. We’ve achieved $1.1 billion in cost out through the first six months, and we are on track to exceed our goal of $2 billion. We also announced changes in our operating model that allow us to take out an additional $500 million plus at Corporate by 2020. The aviation market continues to be very strong. We had a strong orders quarter and a good week at the Farnborough airshow with $22.6 billion of wins. The biggest challenge we face continues to be working through the turnaround of our Power business. The market continues to be difficult with softness in orders putting pressure on our cash flow and working capital. The team continues to focus on rightsizing footprint, reducing base cost, improving quality, and maximizing value of our installed base. This transformation is taking place in the context of a very dynamic macro environment. Overall, economic activity remains solid in most parts of the world. I made trips to Europe and to China and Korea in the past six weeks, and we continue to watch the global trade picture carefully. Our businesses see significant opportunities, both in Europe and Asia. And it was also a chance for me to see the very strong GE teams winning on the ground. In terms of business performance in the quarter, our overall results were in line with our expectations. Adjusted EPS was $0.19 with particularly performances in Aviation and Healthcare and a good performance in Oil and Gas. Free cash flow was $258 million, about what we expected for the quarter. Through the first half, cash is about $1 billion better than last year. I’m pleased that we’re executing well on cash, meeting or beating our plan across all businesses, except Power. Given that ongoing market challenges and related volatility in Power, we anticipate free cash flow will be approximately $6 billion for the year. Orders were up 1% organically. Organic revenue was down 6%. And margins were down 80 basis points organically. And I’ll share more details on those metrics in the next few pages. Overall, we are executing on our framework and the plan we laid out for you in June. This plan was built around driving shareholder value by focusing the portfolio for growth, delevering and derisking the Company and operating in a new, decentralized manner. The team is energized by our path forward. And we made solid progress in the first half of the year and will continue to execute. We expect earnings and cash pressure in Power will be offset by strength in Aviation and Healthcare, and lower corporate cost. Renewables, Transportation, and Oil and Gas should be about as expected. Our current rollup for EPS is as at the low end of the range we’ve guided to of $1 to $1.07. And next on to orders. First quarter orders totaled $31 billion, up 11% reported and up 1% organically. Equipment and services orders were both up 1% organically. We saw strength in equipment orders in Aviation, Healthcare and Transportation. Power was down 29% and Renewables was down 34% on tougher comps. We had good service orders growth in five of seven businesses with strong spares in Aviation and repower in Renewables. Power services declined 22%. I’ll take you through some of the market highlights on the right. As I said earlier, Power remains challenging. First half trends continue to point to a market less than 30 gigawatts in 2018, which is down from 34 gigawatts last year and 48 gigawatts in 2016. We are planning for the environment to be in this range through 2020. In Aviation, Healthcare and Renewables, we see a lot of opportunities for growth. Aviation markets are robust. Global revenue passenger kilometers grew 6.8% year-to-date with strong growth, both domestically and internationally. Air freight volumes grew 5.3%. Load factors continue to be strong. As I mentioned earlier, we had another very successful week in Farnborough. David and the team led the airshow with $22.6 billion of orders and commitments. In Healthcare, we saw strength in the U.S., up 6% organically and emerging markets up 5%. Europe continues to see modest growth, up 2%. I was with our Healthcare team in China last week, and they had another strong quarter with orders up 10%. The market continues to be robust and the team recently launched the Pioneer MR that helped contribute the 19% MR growth in China. Our Renewables orders were down in the quarter, but we continue to see strong global demand for Onshore Wind. Our onshore backlog is up 43% year-over-year. And although pricing remains challenging, it is improving. Overall, the majority of the markets we are in are strong and growing, and we see good opportunity for growth. Next, I will go through our results on revenue, margins and costs. Industrial segment revenues were $29 billion, up 4% reported and down 6% organic. The difference is due mainly to the impact of the Baker Hughes acquisition. Aviation saw very strong growth of 13% and Healthcare was up 4%. As expected, Power, Oil and Gas, Transportation and Renewables had negative organic revenues. Jamie will walk through each of the businesses in more detail. Industrial margins were 10.4% in the second quarter, down 160 basis points. Organically, margins were down 80 basis points in the quarter, but are up 40 basis points for the half on strong cost out. Aviation margins were down 110 basis points on higher LEAP shipments, but are up 110 basis points at the half. We expect Aviation margins will expand in the year. Power margins were down 500 basis points in the quarter, primarily due to lower volume in price. Structural cost reduction remains on track. We reduced cost, an additional $300 million in the second quarter, bringing the total for the first half to $1.1 billion versus our full year target of $2 billion. We continue to look aggressively at all cost out opportunities. We’ve begun implementing the actions we outlined in June to run the Company with the businesses as the center of gravity. This will result in at least $500 million of incremental corporate cost out through 2020. And with that, I’ll hand it over to Jamie.
Jamie Miller:
Thanks, John. On the consolidated results, second quarter revenues were $30.1 billion up 3% reported. Industrial revenues were $27.7 billion, up 4% reported with the industrial segments also up 4% but down 6% organically. For the quarter, adjusted EPS was $0.19, down 10% from the second quarter of 2017. The industrial businesses delivered $0.21 of EPS, down 9%, driven by continued softness in Power, partially offset by strength in Aviation and Healthcare. GE Capital contributed negative $0.02 in the quarter, which I’ll cover later in the GE Capital results. Continuing EPS was $0.08 and included $0.15 of costs related to restructuring and other, non-operating pension and benefit costs, and tax charges related to the planned separation of GE Healthcare. It also includes $0.05 of gains and other marks, which I’ll cover in more detail on the next page. Net EPS of $0.07 includes discontinued operations. Adjusted industrial free cash flow was $258 million for the quarter, down by about $100 million from prior year. I will walk through more details on our cash performance on the next couple of pages. The reported GE tax rate was 39%, which was higher than previously expected due to the approximate $200 million tax charge to restructure our operations related to the planned separation of GE Healthcare. The adjusted industrial tax rate was 18%. On the right side of the segment results, industrial segment op profit was down 4%, driven by double-digit declines in Power, Renewables and Transportation, partially offset by solid growth in Aviation and Healthcare. Industrial operating profit, which includes Corporate, was down 11%. Through the half industrial segment op profit was down 3%. Next, I will go through a walk of earnings per share. Net EPS was $0.07 including losses and discontinued operations of $0.01 related to trailing cost from the GE Capital exit plan and the reserve for an unfavorable tax resolution related to a prior disposition. EPS from continuing operations was $0.08, this included $0.02 of gains primarily related to the sale of Industrial Solutions to ABB. On industrial restructuring and other item, we incurred $0.08 of charges; $0.05 was related to ongoing cost out actions at Corporate, Power and Renewables. We also incurred a $0.01 in our Oil and Gas segment, which represents our portion of Baker Hughes GE’s restructuring, and $0.03 related to the planned separation of GE Healthcare and the small impact related to other tax reform adjustments. For the year, we expect restructuring to be about $2.7 billion pretax, ex-Baker Hughes GE. In the quarter, we also had a $0.02 favorable mark-to-market related to our equity investment in Pivotal. The company IPOed in April; and as required by GAAP accounting for equity securities, we marked our investment to fair value, based on the publicly traded share price as of the end of June. This non-operating item is not included in our $1 to $1.07 EPS guidance for the year. Any future marks for this investment will continue to be backed out of our adjusted EPS each quarter in 2018. Finally, non-operating pension and benefit costs were $0.06, which gets you to an adjusted EPS of $0.19. Next, I’ll cover cash. Our total industrial free cash flow was negative $600 million in the quarter. This represents total GE, including 100% of Baker Hughes GE free cash flow. Adjusting for pension plan contributions, deal taxes and Baker Hughes GE on a dividend basis, our adjusted industrial free cash flow was $258 million. This was up significantly from the negative cash flow of $1.7 billion that we reported last quarter. Adjusted industrial free cash flow year-to-date was negative $1.4 billion and that is up $1 billion compared to last year. Overall, second quarter free cash flow performance was in line with expectations. Continued weakness in Power was offset by strength in other business segments. If we continue on the right, you can see the drivers of the second quarter cash performance. Income depreciation and amortization totaled $2.2 billion. Working capital usage was negative $900 million for the quarter. The primary driver was net liquidation of progress collections in our Power segment, reflecting a challenging new orders dynamic. Excluding Power, working capital was flat, indicative of a normal business cycle and the other businesses. We saw a cash usage in these businesses through buildup of receivables and inventory, which was funded by a similar increase in payables and progress collections. Contract assets were a cash usage of $500 million this quarter, driven by $400 million of deferred inventory build in our Renewables segment due to timing of units that were shipped but not rev rec. We expect to recognize these units in the second half. In addition, we had about $300 million of usage in our long-term services agreements portfolio, primarily driven by revenue in excess of billings. This was partially offset by $200 million of cash collections ahead of revenue on equipment contracts. Other cash flows were flat in the period. We spent $800 million in capital expenditures to support growth in our business segments. This was down $300 million versus prior year, reflecting our focus on rightsizing investment spend. For the year, the continued challenges we are seeing in power are putting pressure on our total year adjusted industrial free cash flow outlook. We currently expect it to be about $6 billion, reflecting the tougher Power market dynamics, which is offsetting strength in other businesses. Cash on hand ex-Baker Hughes GE of $8.9 billion is down $2.9 billion versus year-end. At the half, we’ve used $1.4 billion of adjusted industrial free cash flow and have paid out $2.1 billion in quarterly dividend. We received $2.3 billion in cash from business dispositions, primarily from the sale of our Industrial Solutions business to ABB that closed this quarter. Additionally, we had 1.1 billion of investing activity, primarily related to $900 million of activity in our Aviation business in the first quarter where we acquired IP assets for $700 million as well as a minority shareholding in Arcam for $200 million, one of our additive businesses. Debt went up by $800 million, primarily driven by debt related to pension funding. And as we had previously disclosed, we will be making total contributions of $6 billion in 2018 to our U.S principal pension plan, which includes contributions in the first half of $900 million. These contributions are being funded by utilizing excess debt in GE Capital. The $1.3 billion change in other is comprised of $900 million of pension plan funding made this year that I previously mentioned, as well as other timing items during the year. We plan to end the year at more than $15 billion of cash. The principal drivers in the second half are free cash flow and dividends for the remainder of the year. In addition, we are expecting to receive approximately $5 billion from disposition proceeds and will have cash usage from the exercise of the $3 billion of Alstom puts in the fourth quarter. Now, I will take you through the second quarter results by segment. For Power, orders of $7.4 billion were down 26% with equipment down 29% and services down 22%. Equipment was down, primarily in gas power systems, which was down 78%. This was driven by lower gas turbine orders of 7 units versus 24 last year, lower balance of plant, down 600 million, and less aero derivatives orders of 3 versus 12 last year. We have 82 gas turbine units in backlog, including 33 H units. Services orders were down 22% and down 17% excluding the water disposition. Contractual orders were down 5%, principally on lower upgrades and averages. Transactional orders were down 30%, driven by lower upgrades in parts. Revenue of $7.6 billion was down 19% with both equipment and services down double digits. Lower equipment revenues were driven by gas turbine shipments of 7 versus 21 units, and aero units of 5 versus 17 in the prior year. We expect to ship about 50 gas turbines this year with 90% in backlog today. Aero shipments are estimated to be around 30 units with about 55% in backlog. Shipments for both are in line with total year expectations. Services revenues were down 15% and down 8% excluding water. CSA revenue was down 8% on lower outages, unfavorable mix of contract scope, and lower long-term service agreement gain. Utilization on CSA units continues to perform as expected and in line with last year. Transactional services revenues were down 21% on fewer upgrades and outages. Transactional revenues were also impacted by several large transactions of about $200 million where commercial closure moved to the second half. In total, services revenue should be stronger in the second half. However, we will continue to have year-over-year pressure from CSA outage and contract mix. Operating profit of $421 million was down on lower volume price and unfavorable productivity and mix. Structural cost-out totaled $212 million in the quarter and $566 million for the first half. We are on track for $1 billion of cost out for the total year end. The Power business had another challenging quarter. As John mentioned, the market continues to be soft, and we have seen new orders in both gas turbines and aero derivatives moving out to the second half. We have visibility to a solid pipeline of activity in the second half. However, the timing of closing on these orders remains difficult to forecast. We expect orders to be better in the second half versus the first half, and about flat with last year. We’re making progress on operational improvements, but this is a multiyear process. Our lead time on H turbines is down about 15% and we have implemented ERP systems that will provide greater visibility earlier on cost positions and scheduling issues in our project business. We continue to make progress on upgrading our transactional service technical sales and capabilities. We have visibility to 90% of the non-CSA GE units over the last year and have initiated commercial actions on 80% of these units. We are focused on gaining traction in winning new business with transactional revenues up 5% for the first half. We expect to see improvement in the second half, especially as we move into the fourth quarter. As is typical with this business, as we look to the second half, we are backend loaded to the fourth quarter. No change to our prior comments on Power performance for the year, but clearly we are very focused on operational change and improvements. On Renewables, orders were down 15% in the quarter, driven principally by Onshore Wind down 18% on lower wind turbine volume and down 44% on unit. This was partially offset by higher onshore service orders, up 2.6 times versus last year. The decline in wind turbine orders is principally driven by timing. Year-to-date Onshore Wind orders are flat with last year. Pricing for new units in the quarter improved sequentially, but were still lower than last year. Backlog for the total business grew 32% to $16.5 billion with onshore up 43%. Revenues were down 29%, principally on lower Onshore Wind turbine deliveries, down 54% on units. This was partially offset by onshore services up 44%. Operating profit was down 48%, driven by lower volume and unfavorable pricing, partially offset by better cost performance. Backlog continues to expand in this business, based on strength in Onshore Wind. The team is investing and building capacity and is very focused on ensuring that we have the capability to deliver on a large second half ramp-up in shipments. The Onshore Wind business has about 70% of the expected second half new units in repower sales in backlog today, with good visibility to the remaining 30%. This along with continued strong service growth should put us on track for revenue growth in line with our prior guidance, 7% to 10% organic. We continue to bring product costs down, and we expect to see benefit from those actions, as we deliver volume in the second half. Next, on Aviation. Orders in the quarter were up 29% to $9.5 billion. Equipment orders grew 62%, driven by commercial engine orders which were up 90% as a result of key wins in GEnx, up 9x; and continued LEAP momentum, up 37%. Military engine orders were up 19%, largely driven by U.S. Navy 414 order. Service orders grew 9%. Not included in orders are $22.6 billion of wins at list price for GE and CFM from the Farnborough airshow with engines of about $19 billion and services of about $4 billion. We saw a significant activity in key commercial engine segments including LEAP with $12 billion of when and GEnx and GE 90 of $5 billion. Revenues in the quarter grew 13% to $7.5 billion. Equipment revenue was up 24% on higher commercial and military engine shipments. We shipped 250 LEAP engines this quarter with improving cost positions versus 69, a year ago and 186 in the prior quarter. Services revenues grew 8%, with the spares rate of 26.6 million per day, up 23% versus prior year. This was partially offset by lower CSA revenue. Operating profit of $1.5 billion was up 7% on higher volume, improved year-over-year price, and operating productivity. Operating profit margins were pressured by 110 basis points in the quarter, principally due to unfavorable mix on higher LEAP shipments. As I said earlier, we shipped 250 LEAP engines in the quarter. And for the first half, we have delivered 436 versus 459 for all of 2017. We are about four weeks behind schedule but are making good progress on our commitment to recover on LEAP deliveries by year-end and remain on track for 1,100 to 1,200 engines in 2018. For the year, David and the team are on track to deliver 15-plus-percent op profit growth. Next, on Healthcare. Orders of $5.3 billion were up 7% and 5% organically. Geographically, organic orders were up 6% in the U.S and 2% in Europe. Emerging market organic orders were up 5% with China up 10%. On a product line basis, Life Sciences orders were up 12% reported and 9% organic with bioprocess strong, up 14% organic. Healthcare Systems orders were up 6% reported and 4% organically. Healthcare revenues of $5 billion grew 6% reported and 4% on an organic basis with Healthcare Systems up 4% and Life Sciences up 5%. Emerging markets continue to be strong, up 10% organically, while developed markets were up 2%. Operating profit of $926 million was up 12% reported and 10% organic, driven by continued volume growth in productivity. Margins expanded 100 basis points in the quarter as material deflation and cost productivity more than offset price pressure. The Healthcare team is making progress on portfolio actions. The sale of the Value-Based Care portfolio of Healthcare Digital to Veritas Capital was completed on July 10th. Next on Oil and Gas. Baker Hughes GE released its financial results this morning at 6:45, and Lorenzo and his team will hold their earnings call with investors today at 9:30. Since we had the one year anniversary of the merger of Oil and Gas with Baker Hughes in July, this will be the last quarter that I provide a comparison of the combined business based on financials as if the merger had taken place on 1/1 of 2017. For reference, I’ll give you the total organic orders and revenue comparisons as well. These represent the results of our legacy Oil and Gas business. Orders were $6 billion, up 95% reported and up 2% organic. On a combined basis, orders were up 9%. The Oil and Gas market continues to grow as crude oil prices have remained relatively stable. Our short cycle businesses are already benefiting from this, which is driving the growth this quarter, particularly in the upstream oilfield services business, which was up 13% year-over-year. Our outlook for long cycle is becoming more constructive, and we saw a good growth in oilfield equipment orders which were up 30% on a large award from Chevron for the Gorgon stage 2 project. This was offset partially by turbomachinery and process solutions down 4% and digital solutions down 6%. Revenues were $5.6 billion, up 85% reported and down 12% organic. On a combined business basis, revenues were up 2%. Short cycle oilfield services and digital solutions revenues were up 14% and 7%, respectively, while the longer cycle oilfield equipment and turbomachinery and process solutions were down 9% and 13%, respectively. Operating profit was $222 million, up 86% reported and down about 27% organic, driven by declines in our longer cycle oilfield equipment and turbomachinery businesses, partially offset by synergy. During the quarter, cash distributions from BHGE totaled $439 million, including the share repurchases and the quarterly dividend of $125 million. Lorenzo and Brian will provide more details on their call today. We are pleased with the team’s execution on strategic goals of growing share and improving cash and margins. The integration is going well with 189 million of synergies in the quarter and is on track for 700 million for the year. Next, on Transportation. North American carload volume was up 5% in the quarter, primarily driven by intermodal carloads up 7% and commodity carloads up 4%. Parked locomotives continued to improve, ending the quarter down about 31% from last year. Orders of $1.1 billion were up 42% with equipment orders of $486 million, up 110%. We received orders for 115 locomotives, principally from North American customers versus 26 in the second quarter of ‘17. Additionally, we continue to see strong growth in mining wheels with unit orders up 115%. Services orders of $620 million were up 13%, driven by double-digit growth in both locomotives and mining. Backlog was up $300 million versus prior year to $18.3 billion with equipment up 30% and services down 7%. Revenues of $942 million were down 13% with equipment down 40% on lower loco volume. We shipped 7 North American locomotives this quarter versus 37 in the second quarter of 2017. International unit shipments were 47 in the quarter versus 83 in the second quarter of ‘17. This was partially offset by mining, which was up 109%. Services revenue was up 12%, driven by locomotive and mining parts growth. Operating profit of $155 million was down 15% due to lower locomotive volume, partly offset by services growth. We announced in May that our transportation business will be merging with Wabtec. The deal is progressing and we expect it to close in early 2019. Moving over to Lighting. Revenues for the segment were down 9% with Current up 6% and the legacy lighting business down 26%. Revenues for the segment were up 6% organically. Operating profit was $24 million, up from $17 million last year. In the second quarter, we closed on the majority of our sale of our Europe, Middle East, Africa, Turkey and global automotive lighting businesses. These businesses represented approximately 15% of Current and Lighting’s annual revenues. We expect to sign a deal to sell the remainder of Current and Lighting by the end of 2018. Finally, I will cover GE Capital. Continuing operations generated a loss of $207 million in the quarter, down 20%. We had a $38 million charge associated with the upfront cost of calling approximately $700 million of excess debt, which will be accretive by the end of 2019. Compared to last year, the business recorded lower gains and higher impairments, primarily related to EFS, which was mostly offset by higher base earnings and lower cost. As mentioned previously, for the year, we’re targeting to be about breakeven on continuing net income. We expect to have higher income in the second half, driven by lower excess debt costs, incremental tax benefits in the fourth quarter and additional asset sale gains. The timing of asset sales could impact the exact outcome. GE Capital ended the quarter with $136 billion of assets including $16 billion of liquidity. We paid down $7 billion of long-term during the quarter and reduced our commercial paper program by $1 billion, which is in line with our overall capital allocation framework. As we announced in January, we modified on July 1st, the internal GE Capital preferred stock to be mandatorily convertible into common equity in January 2021. Remember, this was a back-to-back arrangement with GE. So, the modification does not change the terms of the external GE preferred stock. In January 2021, the GE preferred stock becomes callable, and we will make a decision about this as part of our overall capital structure at that time. Our strategy with respect to GE Capital remains clear. We intend to materially shrink the balance sheet of GE Capital. We’re making progress on our target reduction of $25 billion in energy and industrial finance assets by the end of 2019. We sold approximately $2 billion of assets in the second quarter and expect to exit more than $10 billion of assets in the second half. With that, I’ll turn it back over to John.
John Flannery:
Thanks, Jamie. In summary, we see continued strength in Aviation, Healthcare and corporate costs in the second half. This will offset pressure in Power. Renewables, Transportation and Oil and Gas should be about as expected. Cost out was $1.1 billion in the first half, on track to be better than $2 billion target. We are aggressively reviewing all cost out opportunities for the second half. We are targeting GE Capital earnings to be breakeven for the total year due to portfolio actions. We expect the second half to be better than the first half. GE is on a multiyear transformational journey, and the path forward is clear. Overall, we feel good about our execution. We see strength across the majority of the portfolio. We remain focused on implementing the broad macro strategic changes we outlined in June, while making sure our micro execution in each business continues to improve across the Company. And with that Matt, I will turn it back over to you.
Matt Cribbins:
Thanks, John. With that, let’s open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Scott Davis of Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Great. Thanks, operator. Good morning, guys and gals. The Power business, it continues to get a bit worse it seems, and the news flow just continues to get worse. I guess, the question is, the original restructuring plan, when you look at it now, is it enough, and can you get enough? With the agreements that you have with the French government, is it even possible to take out enough capacity to get close to matching up supply and demand on that?
John Flannery:
So, Scott, let me just start out saying, it’s clearly our top priority, is managing through and fixing our issues in the Power business. So, we’re working that intensely, in total sense of urgency. The market is challenging, but we need to work through that. It’s going to be a multiyear fix, I think with some volatility. This is not something that’s going to move straight line quarter-to-quarter. But, let me take it in three pieces really, one is just the market; two is now we’re fixing it; and then, just as we look into ‘19 and beyond. I’ll start with market. So, we’re looking basically 50% down last two years, we’re planning for this to stay at those levels. So, we’re not looking for any rebound there. On the installed base side, the industry is not going way. I think, if you look at every forecast, recent forecast, Bloomberg and others that the amount of electricity generated by gas turbines will increase. So, we think there is something substantial to build around it longer term here, and our strategy is to restructure the business and maximize the value. We’ve got five basic things, Scott, in the plan here in terms of addressing this. One is rightsizing the footprint and the base cost. I think, the team made good progress on that. We’re about 550 and $560 million of cost out in the first half; we’ll be ahead of the target on $1 billion out. Then maximizing value of installed base, again, we’ve gone through that with you before, but we continue to make progress and thinking, improving our visibility, improving our commercial execution, sales incentives pricing controls. So, I think the team -- we’ve got execution and quality and then liquidated damages and in cycle time. Selling core -- non-core assets IS sold, BP announced, low voltage motors and changes to management. So, we see a very clear plan of what we need to do there. The market continues to be a challenge. And so, what we announced today, Scott, was this -- we see pressure on orders. We’re going to continue to have to take additional cost out. We’re going to continue to have to restructure the footprint. We can do that. We will do that. But, it’s going to take some time. So, I don’t see any change to our core strategy with the business, our core approach to what we see in the market. But, I agree with your point that it’s going to take more ongoing actions here, and that’s what the team is focused on. And I think as we look beyond 2019 and beyond, we’re already working with an assumption of a very challenging market. So, we had 107 gas turbines last year, we’re about half of that this year, we’re not expecting any improvement on that. We have the commercial teams intensely focused and getting our fair share, but make sure we’re disciplined on the terms of that. And we just continue to grind down the footprint and the base cost. So, I think, big picture, the industry is not going away, the short-term cycle is severe, and we’ve got to manage through that. But there has been asset worth maintaining and preserving and expanding the value here.
Scott Davis:
Just quickly, you guys haven’t really given us a number yet on what you think the run rate corporate expense is, once all the Healthcare spend and Transportation, once it all occurs. I mean, what -- do you have a sense of how much it takes in pure dollars of sense to run a company like GE from a corporate perspective?
Jamie Miller:
Yes, Scott. From a corporate perspective, so, for this year, we’re looking at between 1.2 and $1.3 billion of corporate. Back on June 26th, we announced both externally and internally a number of changes to our corporate structure. First, was really decentralizing a lot of what is done at corporate today, and both moving folks to the businesses as well as a number of headcount reductions. I’d say, the second thing is we had historically run a lot of things centrally here at corporate as well, and that is all getting pushed out to the businesses, things like global growth, things like ventures, things like IT and other shared services. So, as you look at that, part of that as well was to announce at least $500 million in incremental cost out over the next two years. And those are auctioned; we’re in the process of really laying out the execution for that right now. And that really starts now and into the second half.
John Flannery:
I’d just add, Scott, on that just as a matter of philosophy. I’m deeply committed to philosophy that the corporate center should be significantly smaller and really focused only on governance, on talent, on capital allocation strategy. So, a radical resizing of what it’s been in the past.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
John and Jamie, can you give us some more of an update on GE Capital in a sense that -- you mentioned some smaller impairments in EFS, you give us more color on those, and you said you still expect the GE Capital to be breakeven for the year with the decent ramp up in the second half. Has visibility decreased at all in that our targeted, give your results in 2Q, or do you still see a nice ramp in second half gains to get you there, and I assume no new update in WMC at this point?
Jamie Miller:
Yes. So, on GE Capital, we’re targeting roughly breakeven. That really hasn’t change from our earlier conversations. That could vary based on the timing of asset sales. We do expect fourth quarter tax planning benefits like we had in the past, and assets sale gains. I think, one important thing to note in the first half versus the second half is, as we’ve begun the process of asset sales and we’re doing pricing discovery, we often have to take marks or impairments on specific assets where there may be a loss on sale, but those gains we have to differ until the actual sale happens. And so, that gain portion of it really flushes through in the second half. We will also see lower excess interest cost. You saw we had a number of debt maturities in the first half. So, still targeting roughly breakeven for GE Capital, but again, timing of some of that could vary, and that’s a rough guide. On WMC, I would say, at this point, really not change to what we talked about before.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Just two quick ones for me; first on the restructuring in 2018. I was wondering how much of the $2.7 billion you would label as actual kind of cost out restructuring relative to write-offs, the GE Healthcare charge and the like. And then the second question, I was just wondering on looking at the Aviation margins -- sequentially, pretty significant drop on sequential spares growth and a little bit of lift in LEAP volumes but not materially. So, just trying to get a better handle on how aviation looks for the year. Jamie, I think you said up 15% in OP. Is that correct and kind of what’s the revenue trajectory associated with that? Thank you.
Jamie Miller:
Yes. So, let me start with the restructuring, and I’m going to talk about restructuring, including Baker Hughes GE. So, restructuring for the year at this point, we expect to be about $3.2 billion. That includes about $500 million of Baker Hughes GE. When you really break that down, of that 3.2, we see roughly 2.6 being related to headcount reductions, site closures, other facility exits, things like that. We do have a heavier run rate of what I’ll call BD and transaction-related costs this year. Just as you know, we’ve announced our $20 billion of dispositions. We are working through the other portfolio changes. So, we do see things like carve out audits, transaction fees and other things rolling through there as well. So, that’s that piece of it. Just shifting to Aviation for a minute. Let me start with -- for the full year, we expect Aviation to have positive margin uplift, and that’s consistent with the 15-plus op margin discussion we’ve had before. But just looking at second quarter in particular, we saw a couple of things here. So, first, sequentially, we had 64 more LEAP engines in second quarter versus first quarter. But if you look at second quarter year-over-year that ramp was really 3 to 4x. So, that was really a significant pull and really impacted margins in the second quarter. When you start to look at the second half, LEAP continues to come down the cost curve. So, while volume continues to ramp up, we’re seeing a nice benefit continuing in terms of the cost piece of it. On the services side, we are seeing some higher turnaround times in our shops, just given the volume ramp and which is resulting in higher shop costs. We saw some of that in the second quarter. The team is taking very specific action on that. And we expect some of that services pressure to continue in the second half, but not at the same level. Remember, we’ve got a very strong spares rate we’re seeing right now, and we expect that to continue. But bottom line is, when you put all that together, we expect full-year margins to go up. But second quarter definitely has some shifting, especially with that year-over-year comparison in LEAP.
John Flannery:
And I’d just add just as a macro comment on the Aviation business overall. This continues to be an extremely strong asset. I think, if you look at markets conditions, they are extremely good in commercial, extremely good in -- freight frankly picking up, good in military. We have a very strong team. The team is working through the LEAP launch well. David went through that at the Farnborough show this week in terms of our delivery schedules and being on track with our delivery schedules that are on track, coming down the cost curve as well on a per unit cost. So, we’ve got I think a good market, a very strong franchise. We continue to clearly outperform on the orders and with customers, and a very strong team running that business with a great execution track record. So, when I step back and look at our portfolio of businesses, this one remains a premium business with a very good and visible long-term outlook.
Operator:
Our next question is from Andrew Obin of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
I guess, I have two questions, one related to Farnborough and other one related to Power, both on services. There was a quote on Bloomberg from one of your colleagues I think, one of your aftermarket folks about some sort of MRO sharing arrangement with Boeing, it was fairly vague, but I’m just trying to understand is that the direction you’re going. And second, if you could just provide more color as to when you guys think transactional business is going to bottom in terms of revenues. Thank you.
John Flannery:
I’m not familiar with the comments Andrew on the Boeing MRO strategy. So, that sounds off point to us, but we’ll follow-up with you on that one. On the transactional services business, I assume you are referring to the Power side of things. And I would just say, it’s a longer cycle process. So, you are dealing essentially with coverage of our installed base and coverage of outages. So, our first step obviously has been trying to drive visibility into our installed base, that’s upto about 90% right now from quite low levels. We’ve got about 80% of those sites with commercial processes and commercial bids being worked on. So, this is something that’s going to unfold over the next several quarters. But, I think the tactical steps upfront around visibility, commercial intensity, sales incentives, the building blocks if you will of something that can unfold over the next several quarters, the team feels good about what they’re doing there. So, it will take some time but it’s an opportunity for us. Margin rates were up I think about 400 basis points on the CM line and transactional. So, we got some work we can do on pricing and product quality and things. But, it will take several quarters I think for this to unfold.
Jamie Miller:
And Andrew, I would just add on the transactional piece of it. We did see lower core volume in the quarter with fewer outages. But, the other piece just take into consideration is that upgrades were down close to 50% year-over-year, as well.
Operator:
Our next question is from Steve Tusa of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
I just want to thank Matt for all the help over the years. He was extremely diligent with us. So, I really appreciate his help. So, thanks, Matt. So, just two questions. The first one on Aviation just to kind of clarify. And I think you’ve made a lot of comments on the call about third quarter, fourth quarter. Given that seasonality has probably changed a little bit with the new accounting, it’s a little bit unclear how we’re supposed to kind of think about Aviation seasonally. Would you expect it in the third quarter to be down, flat or up relative to the second quarter from a profit perspective at Aviation?
Jamie Miller:
Yes. We see the second half with the volume -- sorry, we see strong services continue; we see third quarter being up versus second quarter sequentially.
Steve Tusa:
Third quarter being up versus second quarter. Okay, great. And then on the restructuring side, so $2.6 billion is -- how much of that is actual headcount?
Jamie Miller:
I don’t have that split with me. We’ll have to follow up with you after that. But of that $2.6 billion, Steve, all of that relates to investment spend we make against headcount reduction, site and facility closure, and other costs out actions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Nicole DeBlase of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase:
So, I guess two questions for you. The first is just a high level question. If you could just kind of comment a little bit on the work you’ve done around potential impact from all of the tariff activity that’s been thrown around over the past few months, and if there is risk to your guidance associated with that? And then, the second thing is just thinking about the Power ramp in the second half of the year. How much of that improvement is underwritten by restructuring actions that have already been taken? I’m just trying to get a sense of the risk if we see further deterioration in the top-line?
John Flannery:
Okay, Nicole. Let me take the China tariff situation, and then Jamie can follow up on the Power thing. I think, just on the -- let me give you some context really on our business in China first and then how we see this unfolding. So, we import about $29 billion of goods globally into the U.S., about 10% of that comes from China. And our business in China, we do about $7 billion, little over $7 billion of revenue in China, and the majority of that is in our Aviation and Healthcare business. If you go and look at the actual tariffs, the $50 billion that are announced and implemented and $200 billion announced but not implemented yet. I would say, we look at it sort of a gross and a net basis. So, it could be $300 million to $400 million at a gross level before any mitigating factors are taken there. And there are some significant mitigating factors. The first is what’s called duty drawbacks. And these are basically credits for any components and things that we would import from China and ultimately reexport as part of the gas turbine, or an MRI machine or an aircraft engine. And that’s a significant amount of what we import. So, we think that could mitigate half or more of what the tariff picture is there. And then obviously over time, we also can adjust our supply chain in response to some of these issues if that’s what made sense. So, I’d say, we don’t see a major impact yet financially, certainly not on our ‘18 guidance. But that said, we are a company that’s built for fair and open trade that’s obviously a subject of debate and discussion. I think that’s what you’re seeing right now. We’re supportive of a fair and open trade. We have a massively global business in every sense, both customers, supply chains, everything. So, in our view right now as we hope and we expect that ultimately these matters reach a sensible negotiated conclusion, and we think that’s really in the best interest of all parties involved. So, we’re watching this carefully. But, I think the financial parameters of this, we’ve got a good handle on. And then, Jaime, do you want to comment on Power question?
Jamie Miller:
Sure. So just looking at Power first half, second half, I think when you start to look at the second half, one thing to keep in mind is that the fourth quarter of 2017, we had $600 million of one-time items with some inventory write-offs and some other things last year. So, you have to think about that in the comparison first. In the second half, we do see lower gas turbine units, year-over-year. Services, as John mentioned, we do expect to start to see that pick up here in the second half, as the results of Scott’s efforts really start to take hold. Cost out, you asked about, we have a $1 billion cost out program in Power this year. For the first half, we’ve seen about 560, $565 million of cost out already. We expect to see at least that same amount in the second half. But fourth quarter is our biggest quarter. We’ve got the volume being lower, the services ramp coming through, the cost out coming through. And one other thing just to remember on volume is that of our gas turbine volume, about 90% of that is already in backlog. And then, just when we look at the aero units for the second half, we have a very strong pipeline there, but that can be a bit lumpy too.
Operator:
Our next question is from Julian Mitchell of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
So, just a couple of quick questions. One is on the second half free cash flow of about $7.5 billion. Within that portion, how much is really coming from working capital versus the sort of 2 to $2.5 billion outflow in the first half, and I guess how much of that is Power? And then, secondly, you talked a lot about the structural cost out. You had about a $1 billion out or more in the first half firm-wide, but your industrial EBIT is still only flattish year-over-year. So, I guess I’m trying to get a sense of the urgency around the magnitude of stepping up the cost plan, because maybe not that much of it is dropping through to the bottom line.
Jamie Miller:
Let me walk you through the second half on the free cash flow and then maybe I’ll touch a little bit on the cost out element, and John may comment as well. So, for the second half on free cash flow, we do see higher earnings across all of the businesses, as we got a very strong volume second half, as you see. With respect to working capital, we see about $3 billion of inventory liquidation coming through in the second half. Really with the shipment profiles we’re seeing across Aviation, Power and Renewables, we continue to expect progress drag at Power but we also expect that to be largely offset by Renewables second half collections as we really start to see that PTC cycle in ‘18, ‘19 and ‘20 ramp. On contract assets, we had usage in the first half of about $900 million. We expect the usage to be higher in the second half, but lower than the $3 billion usage we had previously planned. So, that’s a little bit there. Just talking about the structural cost piece of it, so $1.1 billion out year-to-date, we still expect the $2 billion plus for the year. When you look at the $1.1 billion and where we’re seeing some shifting in the industrial margin, we are seeing lower volume impacting our margins, primarily at Power that was about $600 million, we’re also seeing mix also affect the margins element, primarily LEAP there, and some FX. So, it is being offset in terms of what you see right now in your operating margins, but again expect the strong half -- the second half as well on both cost control and cost out.
John Flannery:
Julian, I’d just say, on the cost side of things, a couple of things here. One is, the cost out initiatives will never end. If we have headwinds in other parts of the business, as Jamie mentioned, that are eating it up, we just have to do more. So, we are looking constantly and aggressively at everything on the cost side of things. So, I think a sense of urgency and our knowledge of the need to execute on that is front and center. I continue to see additional opportunities I think in corporate. We have also gone through with our teams this whole notion of decentralizing corporate, pushing down if you will, or eliminating activity at the corporate level, I expect that’s also happened at the Tier 1 levels in the Power business and the Healthcare business, et cetera. So, I think there’s more to go there. But, this is a self-help execution story for us and the cost is a huge part of that.
Operator:
Our last question is from Steven Winoker of UBS. Please go ahead.
Steven Winoker:
I’ve got just two quick ones. First one is, I know, you guys give us adjusted EPS guidance of a $1 to $1.07, but I think most companies that we cover, tend to give us a GAAP number as well, especially considering all the moving parts around restructuring and everything else. Is there a way you could give us a sense of what that implies from your perspective on GAAP? And then, the second question is around just pricing and the order book, particularly around wind and on the equipment side and Power.
Jamie Miller:
So, let me start with the pricing discussion for a minute. Pricing from a Power perspective, as you see, I mean, the market is very soft right now. We’re expecting a flattish market for the next couple of years on Power and there is a lot of over capacity in the market. As you would expect, we’re seeing continued price pressure on equipment in many markets. I would say on the services side, we’re seeing pricing being relatively stable in transactional services. You saw that come through in the first half with orders and revenue on transactional services up 5%. When you start to look at Renewables, a couple of dynamics here. First, we’re still feeling the effects from the European auction environment. So, pricing does continue to be challenging, but we’re seeing it moderate, and we saw that this quarter. As we move into what should be a very strong volume couple of years, we expect that to help the pricing element as well.
John Flannery:
I’d just add on the -- with respect to the adjusted earnings topic in general, that’s something I’d ask Jamie and now Todd as he’s coming in here to look at. I understand your point, and I would say expect an update on that later this year.
Matt Cribbins:
Thank you. Just as a reminder, John, before you wrap, replay of today’s call will be available this afternoon on our investor website.
John Flannery:
Great. Thanks a lot, Matt. And I, as Steve noted earlier, do want to thank you really for just the tremendous job in this role. You’ve led us through a lot change and movement in the Company and have always been responsive and service oriented to our investors and analysts. So, thank you for an incredible effort and performance there. And we welcome Todd Ernst as well. So, Todd, the baton is passed to you. We have every expectation you will build on that great work. So, I would just finish really by saying, this is really the one year anniversary, if you will, for me. And as I reflect back, really much progress has been made at the Company. If I look back, I see obviously -- we’ve spent a lot of time working on a very clear strategic direction, positioning the portfolio so that the businesses can thrive, delevering the Company, decentralizing the management approach. So, strong progress on the strategic direction of the business. Good ongoing progress on our tactical execution items. The $20 billion of disposition, cost out, the team continues execute on the day to day things we need to advance things, and a lot of change. Change at the top of the Company in terms of the leadership team, changes in our Board, changes in the culture of the Company, so a lot has happened in 12 months. As we stand today and just say we look forward and say, the path is clear. This is really a pivot point for us that this is an execution story going forward. We know what we need to do. We know where we want to go. We know what our strengths are and they are significant. And we know what our issues are, and some of those are significant. So, we’re focused on execution going forward. And I’d say, the team is clear where we’re headed, they know what they need to do, they know where they can contribute, they are excited about the path we’re on. In different pieces of the Company up here, different roles to plays, but there is a confidence in the future. And I’m personally certain we’re on the right path. So, as we said, it’s a multiyear journey, but I’m highly confident in the direction we’re. And it’s up to our team to execute and I’m confident in our ability to do that. So, that said and Matt thanks again for a great performance.
Matt Cribbins:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matt Cribbins – Vice President of Investor Communications John Flannery – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jamie Miller – Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Julian Mitchell – Barclays Steve Tusa – JPMorgan Jeffrey Sprague – Vertical Research Steven Winoker – UBS Scott Davis – Melius Research Andrew Obin – Bank of America Andrew Kaplowitz – Citi Robert McCarthy – Stifel
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Jason and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matt Cribbins:
Good morning and welcome to today’s webcast. I’m joined by our Chairman and CEO, John Flannery; and our CFO, Jamie Miller. Before we start I would like to remind you that the press release, presentation and supplemental have been available since earlier today on our Investor website at www.ge.com/investor. Please note that some of the statements we are making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. And now I will turn the call over to John Flannery.
John Flannery:
Great, thanks, Matt. In my letter to shareholders I spoke of our path forward. We are taking what we learned in 2017, recommitting to the fundamentals, and dedicating 2018 to earning back your trust and delivering for you. Today is our first report card for 2018 and we see signs of progress. At a critical time I’m extremely proud of the team’s intense effort and execution focus during the first quarter. Adjusted EPS up $0.16 was up 14%. Industrial had a strong quarter delivering $0.18, up 29%, with strong performances in Aviation, in Healthcare, in Renewables, in Transportation and higher cost out in Corporate. This is partly offset by lower Power, Oil & Gas and GE Capital earnings. Free cash flow was about what we were expecting. It was a $1.7 billion use but, importantly, a $1.1 billion improvement over the first quarter of 2017. We continue to make progress on cash. The team is intensely focused and cash is front and center in every conversation. We see it in our results both in the fourth quarter of last year and in the first quarter. Power continues to be our biggest challenge. The team is making good progress on execution, but the market is challenging and, as we’ve said before, this will be a multiyear fix. We are confident we will exceed our 2018 goal of $2 billion plus of structural cost out. We delivered $800 million in the first quarter, which helped increase the industrial margin rate 60 basis points. We have been working for several years to resolve our WMC-related exposures. As we publicly disclosed, in December 2015, the DOJ started a FIRREA investigation. In the first quarter, we booked a related reserve for $1.5 billion for WMC. Last November we announced our intention to divest $20 billion of assets over the next one to two years. We are making progress on these dispositions. Industrial Solutions will close in the second quarter and Value-Based Care in the early third quarter. In addition, we are in active discussions on multiple smaller Aviation platforms, Current & Lighting, Distributed Power and Transportation. We’ve got a lot to execute on but the first quarter was a good start to executing on our 2018 plan. There is no change to our framework of $1 to $1.07 earnings per share and $67 billion of free cash flow. We expect earnings pressure in Power will be offset by better Aviation and better Healthcare earnings and lower corporate costs. Renewables, Transportation and Oil & Gas should be about as expected. And now next on orders. First quarter orders totaled $27 billion, up 10% reported but flat organically. Equipment orders were down 1% and service orders were up 1% organically. Jamie will give you orders details by business. The decline in equipment orders was driven by Power, which was down 40%. We saw strength across the rest of the portfolio, particularly in Renewables, Aviation and Transportation. Services orders were strong in Aviation, Healthcare and Transportation but were mostly offset by softness in Power and Renewables. The majority of our markets are quite strong, our franchises are robust and we see a lot of opportunity for growth. Some market highlights are on the right. With respect to Power, we came into the year expecting the overall market for new gas orders in 2018 to be 30 to 34 gigawatts. Based on what we are seeing in the market, this is trending to less than 30 gigawatts. I will give you more details on Power in a couple of pages. We see broad strength in Aviation. Global revenue passenger kilometers grew 5.9% year-to-date with strong growth both domestically and internationally. Air freight volumes grew 7.7%. Load factors posted record highs for February. In Healthcare we saw strength in emerging markets with HCS orders up 7%, Bioprocess orders were up 7% as well. The U.S. and Europe markets continue to see modest growth. In the first quarter we signed our first cell therapy FlexFactory order with Shanghai Cellular Biopharmaceutical Group. Although this is a small business for us today, cell therapy is an exciting area where we are investing for growth. Orders for cell therapy were up 78% in the first quarter. Our Renewables onshore business continues to see strong growth but there is price pressure across the industry. Next I will go through revenue, margins and costs. Industrial segment revenues were $27.4 billion, up 9% reported and down 4% organic. The difference was driven mainly by the impact of the Baker Hughes acquisition. Aviation and Healthcare had a solid quarter, both up 6%. Power, Oil & Gas, Transportation and Renewables all had negative organic revenues and Jamie will take you through the businesses in more detail. Our Industrial margins were 10.2% in the quarter, up 60 basis points. Organically margins expanded 160 basis points. This is very solid performance given the lower revenues. Aviation margins were 340 basis points up year-over-year on cost out and higher service revenue, offsetting the drag of 186 LEAP shipments in the quarter versus 77 last year. Transportation margins were up 520 basis points driven by lower costs and a higher mix of services. And reduction in our structural cost is a highlight. At the Industrial level cost out was $800 million. While comps will get tougher throughout the year, we expect to beat our $2 billion plus target for cost out. Power cost out was $350 million and we see upside to the $1 billion Power cost out target. Now with respect to Power, I thought it would be helpful to give you some context on what we are seeing in the power market and the actions we are taking to drive execution. Our plan for the heavy-duty gas turbine market was built on 30 to 34 gigawatts of demand. We are seeing lower demand today driven by energy efficiency, renewables penetration and some delays in orders. Our equipment orders were down 24% in the fourth quarter and were down 40% in the first quarter. Given what we are seeing, we believe the 2018 market is trending below 30 gigawatts and we think this is the type of market that we are going to be looking at in general for the next few years. So here is the plan that we are executing on. First, we continue to have leading technology, deep domain, digital solutions and broad and deep customer relationships. We continue to be viewed as a go to provider in our industry and we are fighting for every opportunity in the market. On the cost side, in an industry that clearly has excess capacity, we are aggressively moving to right size our footprint and base cost. We took out $800 million of structural cost in 2017 and an additional $350 million in the first quarter. We are on track to exceed our $1 billion target for 2018 and headcount and sites are coming down. We are maximizing the economics of our installed base. Our installed base is a valuable asset. We have a third of the world’s power generation. We have increased our visibility to transactional outages by more than double since last October and that’s up to 86%, which should allow us to capture more of this important market. We are driving out cost and addressing the quality issues we had last year. The team has introduced a new sales force compensation program specifically aimed at driving transactional services and margins. We have a new leadership team in our supply chain and they are reinvigorating the use of lean and Six Sigma to drive better execution. The H cycle time is down 20%. Ultimately our goal is to cut this another 50% or more. The team has put in controls that are driving more disciplined production plans and better timing of cash in our long-term service contracts. These measures will lead to lower inventory and better cash flow over time. And we are also exiting non-core assets as we simplify the business. Russell has built out the leadership team. In the fourth quarter we announced new leaders in Services and Supply Chain. In the first quarter, we added Chuck Nugent to run our Gas Power Systems business. He has deep operational background in Aviation and Healthcare. We have made a lot of progress putting the right team in place. So we are planning for the market to continue to be challenging, but we are taking the right steps to adjust to this market and drive execution. In the final analysis, it’s important to step back and look at our total Power portfolio. We have the leading franchise in gas turbines, a strong position in wind, cutting-edge technology, digital expertise, grid and automation capability and a growing presence in storage with our GE Reservoir. There are short-term pressures but GE is on the field playing out the transformation in this industry. And with that I will now turn it over to Jamie.
Jamie Miller:
Thanks, John. Before I start with the consolidated results and, consistent with what we laid out in November, we’ve made adjustments to our reporting metrics starting this quarter. First, on EPS we now report an adjusted EPS number which has total continuing operations, excluding industrial gains, restructuring and other and non-operating pension and benefit costs. And on cash we have moved to reporting free cash flow as opposed to CFOA. Both of these changes reflect our continuing effort to simplify our financial reporting and bring our metrics more in line with industry peers. Also as you know, last Friday we filed an 8-K with restated financials for 2016 and 2017 to reflect a number of new accounting standards, the most significant being the new revenue accounting standard known as ASC 606. I will go through more detail on the transition and financial impacts later in the discussion, but all financial metrics and prior period comparisons in this presentation are now on the new basis. And it’s important to note that this does not change anything related to our cash flows and has no impact on our 2018 earnings and free cash flow guidance. On the consolidated results, first-quarter revenues were $28.7 billion, up 7% reported. Industrial revenues were $26.5 billion, up 9% reported with the Industrial segments also up 9% and organically down 4%. For the quarter, adjusted EPS was $0.16, up from $0.14 in the first quarter of 2017 and I will walk you through the Industrial and Capital components of that. The Industrial businesses comprise $0.18 of EPS, up 29% versus last year, driven by strength in Aviation, Healthcare and lower Corporate costs. And GE Capital contributed negative $0.02 driven largely by interest on excess debt and costs relating to calling $2 billion of long-term debt during the quarter. The benefits from calling this long-term debt will be accretive within the year. Next I will move to continuing EPS which was $0.04 for the quarter and includes $0.12 of costs related to restructuring and other, non-operating pension and benefit cost and US tax reform adjustments in GE Capital. Net EPS was negative, $0.14. As John mentioned, we recorded a $1.5 billion reserve charge to discontinued operations related to the WMC DOJ FIRREA investigation. As we have disclosed in our SEC filings and previously discussed, we have been under investigation since late 2015 by the Department of Justice related to activity in our mortgage subsidiary from 2006 and 2007. In March we had settlement discussions following the DOJ’s assertion that WMC and GE Capital violated FIRREA. We recorded the reserve based on our discussions with the DOJ and a review of settlements by other banks. We do not expect this to change our view on GE Capital with regards to cash and liquidity. The discussions are ongoing and we will update you on this one as we know more. Free cash flow was negative $1.7 billion for the quarter, in line with our expectations and an improvement of $1.1 billion versus the prior year. And I will walk through more details on our cash performance in the next couple of pages. Next on taxes, the reported GE tax rate was 15% and the adjusted tax rate was 25%. For the year we still expect an adjusted tax rate in the mid to high teens. On the right side are the segment results. Industrial segment op profit was up 7% reported and up 4% organically, driven by strong double-digit growth in Aviation, Healthcare and Transportation, partly offset by declines in Power and Oil & Gas. When combined with the lower corporate cost John mentioned earlier, the Industrial op profit is up 15% reported and up 12% organically. I will cover the individual segment dynamics separately. Next I will cover cash. Our total Industrial free cash flow was negative $2 billion in the quarter. This represents total GE including 100% of Baker Hughes free cash flow. Adjusted for the $300 million of pension plan funding this quarter, our Industrial free cash flow was negative $1.7 billion, up $1.1 billion versus the prior year. On the right you can see the drivers of our cash flow. Income depreciation and amortization totaled $2 billion. Working capital usage was negative $1.4 billion for the quarter, driven by inventory buildup of $1.1 billion in Renewables and Aviation. This was needed for equipment deliveries in the second half of the year. Contract assets were a cash usage of $400 million this quarter driven by cum catch adjustments on long-term service agreements of $200 million and revenue in excess of billings for another $200 million. And the other outflow of $900 million includes deferred taxes and timing items related to project cost disbursements. Finally, we spent $1 billion in CapEx to support our growth in business segments, primarily Aviation, Healthcare and Renewables, and that was slightly above what our run rate will be for the remainder of the year. On the next page I will discuss the cash balance walk for the quarter focusing on the GE ex-Baker Hughes column. Cash on hand ended at $7.5 billion, down $4.3 billion versus year end. In addition to the free cash flow impact which I had already discussed, our quarterly dividend was an outflow of $1 billion. Next we received $300 million of proceeds from the Baker Hughes GE share buyback and also reduced our debt by $100 million, which is net of $300 million of incremental debt to fund the pension plan. Additionally, during the quarter we had investing activity related to our Aviation business, including an incremental share in Arcam for $200 million. Finally the $900 million change in Other is comprised of the pension contribution and other timing items during the quarter. There is no change to our 2018 guidance of $6 billion to $7 billion of free cash flow. We expect to end the year with $15 billion in cash, which is driven by the next three quarters of free cash flow, and disposition proceeds while funding the pension and the dividend. From a liquidity standpoint, in addition to the cash on hand, we have roughly $20 billion of operating lines and an additional $17 billion of backup credit lines. Finally, GE Capital ended the quarter with $22 billion of liquidity. Overall we are continuing to focus and make progress on our four key financial priorities, which are
John Flannery:
Okay, thanks, Jamie. There is no change to our 2018 outlook for Industrial EPS or free cash flow. Given pressure in Power we see EPS closer to the lower end of the range. As I said earlier, we expect earnings pressure in Power will be offset by better Aviation and Healthcare earnings and lower Corporate costs. Renewables, Transportation and Oil & Gas should be about as expected. Cost out was $800 million in the quarter, on track to be better than $2 billion. Cost out in Power in the quarter was $350 million. Corporate was down $176 million and we are executing on synergies in BHGE. As Jamie mentioned, GE Capital earnings will be breakeven for the total year due to our portfolio actions and we expect the second half of the year to be better than the first half. We are targeting free cash flow of $6 billion to $7 billion. At $1 billion better than last year’s first quarter our first quarter is on track and no change to the outlook for the year. I thought I would wrap with an update on the actions we are taking to run the Company better and an update on the portfolio. We are in the middle of our three-year strategic planning process and we have enhanced our approach this year. Much more detailed analysis on the markets, on our outlook, and a very detailed three-year financial plan for our businesses. We will be reporting out a summary of that to our Board in the second quarter. We have our shareholder meeting next Wednesday and a Board meeting on Tuesday and we are very excited to have Tom Horton, Leslie Seidman and Larry Culp on board. They have been attending meetings since their announcement and are getting up to speed quickly and are fully engaged. As I shared with you earlier, we are beginning to see some green shoots in Power on the execution front. I’ve talked in the past also about our new compensation system which better aligns management with investors, less cash, more stock compensation and two metrics cash and EPS. We rolled out the new plan to the top 4,000 employees in the Company and your management team is aligned and everyone knows the definition of success. Last year, given the urgency and severity of our challenges, we launched directly and with brute force into cost-cutting mode and improving our cash controls during the second half of the year. You can see the impact of this in the results of our past two quarters. I always had in my mind that there would be a second phase where it could be more deliberate about a new way to run the Company. In that context I asked a group of our top leaders to spend a week at Crotonville working on developing a new GE operating system. They studied the world’s best business system models. We asked six outstanding external leaders in their industries to meet with the team to share their best practices. I’m excited about the path we are on. We are taking a new approach on how we run the Company. Our business units will be the center of gravity. HQ will be substantially smaller and will focus only on strategy, governance, capital allocation and talent. We will continue to leverage our horizontal capability across the Company. I will personally lead the development and implementation of a new GE operating system that will be based on lean, Six Sigma and agile. We will drive and measure continuous improvement, operating performance and customer experience. We are also reinstating rigorous talent management and development with a focus both on values and performance to ensure the strong differentiation and organization vitality. We expect this GE operating system will be applied within the Tier 1 business levels as well. And we are confident this is going to yield incremental cost savings above our current forecasts while creating a simpler, leaner high-performance Company. As I said in my opening with respect to the portfolio, we are making progress on the $20 billion of dispositions we are targeting for 2018 and 2019. Industrial Solutions is on track to close in the quarter. Cash proceeds will be $1.9 billion. We announced the sale of Value-Based Care last quarter and we expect it to close early third quarter. Cash proceeds there will be $1 billion. The divestment process on Transportation is progressing and we expect to have more to report in the second quarter. Earlier this year we laid out a framework to shrink GE Capital assets by $15 billion over the next two years. Assets were down in the quarter by $2 billion including a small portfolio sale. Finally, and importantly, as I shared with you in January, we continue to review and evolve our thought process regarding the best structure or structures for the Company. Our guiding principle is to ensure that our businesses have the right operating rigor, management alignment and the organic and inorganic flexibility to maximize their potential and their value for our customers, our employees and our investors. The Board, including our three new directors, is heavily engaged in this process. We have done and are continuing to do a significant amount of work looking at the best way to achieve our objectives in pursuit of our guiding principles. Consistent with what we said earlier this year, we expect to have something more to share with you on that within the next couple of months. And with that, Matt, I will turn it back over to you.
Matt Cribbins:
Thanks, John. With that, operator, let’s open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning.
John Flannery:
Good morning.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Maybe just a first question around the Power business. Some sense I guess as to how much below your prior plan you think this year will shake out on the profit side. And also I guess related to that, what you are thinking about the cash conversion ratio. And if I look at the numbers, obviously profits are down a lot in Q1, but at least it was a fairly normal decremental margin, unlike the second half. So does that tell us that a lot of those excess costs you’d booked in the second half, you think you are through that process now with cleanup?
Jamie Miller:
Good morning, Julian. This is Jamie. Hey, I will take that one and then maybe John can get some color, sort of the broader Power market and what we see operationally. So first with respect to what we see in 2018, and maybe I’ll talk about this a little bit versus last year and a little bit versus the prior guide. As I mentioned earlier on the call, we see 2018 as probably flat to 2017 or flat to prior year. You see the market shifting that we see, so we saw 30 to 35 gigawatts really shifting to maybe less than 30 as we look at the year. So honestly as you look at, whether it is versus prior guide or versus 2017, this is really mostly a market story. Our prior guide had 60 to 70 gas turbine units. Our new guide would be 50 to 55. And on the aero side we had 30 to 40 before and now 20 to 30. And really the impact is just supply chain overhead, as you don’t have those units come through you just see more liquidation impact. The second piece on cash, Power cash I would tell you for the first quarter was below plan, but that is not unusual for us in that business. First quarter is seasonally low – a strong second-half unit shipment and unit profile order – profile for things. And then from a market perspective, as we talk about the market what you really see there is progress burn not being replaced as quickly by progress coming in from new orders. So, Power for this year continues to look like a real second-half profile story both with respect to the gas power business but really also with respect to how we see the trending in services.
John Flannery:
And Julian, I would just add just a few sort of macro thoughts about how we are looking at Power right now, and kind of sequentially go through the market, our market share, our cost structure, what we are doing in the service business. I think, as you have all seen, the market and our market share is lumpy by quarter. But I think we do see enough trends, looking at our pipeline over 12 to 18 months, that we think this is going to trend softer than the 30 to 34 by a bit. And I think the factors are well known. Part of it is Renewables penetration. Part of it also is the pricing of renewables keeps moving and we see utility customers in a bit of a wait-and-see mode to see how that pricing evolves over the next year. And then with energy efficiency, on the consumer side of things we are seeing more people comfortable with maybe lower surplus reserves and being able to delay some of their CapEx decisions. So our market share, again, moves around by quarter, but we had about a 50% share last year and that ranged all over the place, about a 40 point swing in various quarters around a mean of 50%. We expect to be in that 45%, 50% basis on a rolling four quarters going forward. Our commercial teams I would say – we continue to be very disciplined on our approach to the risk and return of what we are seeing in the market. And that really leads you to a lower revenue outlook and obviously lower cost plan. So we have announced the 12,000 jobs out, $350 million cost out in the quarter. We’ll exceed the $1 billion target for 2018. And we are taking cost out at a much faster rate than the revenues are coming down but there’s still an overall pressure there. And then on service, we see a lot off chance and opportunity here to improve the service business. So our contractual business is relatively stable and more stable. Where we have really been hurt in the last 12 months has been in our transactional business. That’s about 40% of the business in services. And we have taken big leadership changes there and also put in some very specific plans around increasing our visibility and making sure we are close to customers, see outages. That is more than double right now. We have got very specific sales incentive plans around driving revenue in that space and margin in that space. And then a lot of changes we can make on our cash conversion, to your point. So new supply chain leaders managing cycle time, managing our payment terms, billing accuracy, et cetera. So – collecting past dues, we collected about $500 million of past dues in the first two weeks of April. So we think there is a lot of improvement we can make in the business, but it’s operating in a tough environment overall. And then the last thing I would say at a Company level is really looking at our energy portfolio in the aggregate. So obviously the gas turbine business has certain pressures based on what’s going on in the industry. Those same factors pop up in a different way in our Renewable business, in our grid and grid software business, in the opportunity for storage. I think at a Company level we look at a holistic mix of what we have there.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we have Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey guys, good morning.
John Flannery:
Good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
When we think about the guidance, so you took down the Power guide, I think you said Healthcare maybe could outperform a little bit. You didn’t talk about the Aviation guidance. And just the way I am looking at this is basically the LEAPs will obviously ramp very hard in the second half and the 56s probably start to come down a bit. So your standing guide is $6.2 billion I believe to $6.3 billion on segment profit there. Any update to that number?
Jamie Miller:
Yes, so on Power, I talked about it being flat to 2017. When you think about the rest of 2018 for the other businesses, we see very solid outlook for Aviation and real strength there. Healthcare is also really looking very solid for 2018 and we see upside there as well. And then the other piece that’s coming through in a really strong way is cost out. And you saw that in the corporate numbers, but we are really seeing that across the board across the businesses in terms of just better cost productivity. Drilling in on aviation just a little bit, I mean obviously the market feels really good. Demand outpacing capacity, and you see that both in commercial and in military. On the operations side we had less LEAP than we expected, but I will tell you, our spares rate was very favorable in the business. And I think that mix story and the cost management story – we see that really continuing throughout the year. Just to touch on LEAP, because I am sure that will be a question at some point, we are about 70 units behind as we hit the end of the first quarter. But as we look to the year we have got a very deep line of sight. The team is really, really focused on it into supply chain and exactly what we need to do, what our suppliers need to do to really move LEAP execution. And right now we are tracking to be back on track by the end of third quarter and be in line for that 1,100 to 1,200 unit shipment story. So really I think on the Aviation side it feels very solid.
John Flannery:
Steve, I would just add on the cost side of things, Jamie gave you a good sense as to how strong the outlook is for the business segments in Aviation and Healthcare. But on the cost side of things we just continue to see a lot of opportunity there. So you are starting to see that in our numbers. Russell and the team working it very hard in the Power business; Lorenzo and the team getting the synergies that we need in BHGE. And we still see big opportunities in really the overhead structures of the Company overall. And as I mentioned in earlier remarks about the operating system and really a philosophical sort of shift to pushing the management structures into the businesses, we think there is still more opportunity on cost as we go forward here.
Operator:
Next we have Jeffrey Sprague from Vertical Research.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you, good morning, everyone.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Good morning. I was wondering if I could ask a couple of questions on the balance sheet actually, just trying to sort a couple things out. The receivable from capital to the parent declined about $4 billion in the quarter. If you could give us any color on what was going on there. And also I see goodwill and intangibles went up in Industrial about $1.5 billion sequentially. Maybe coincidently, but that kind of seems to erase the $1.5 billion equity hit at capital on the reserve. Maybe just a little color on what’s going on in those two pieces.
Jamie Miller:
Yes, the goodwill piece of it was really FX. And so, there really weren’t any other changes. There were a few minor purchase price adjustments, but the goodwill shift was largely just the FX mark on the balance sheet. And in terms of the receivables from GE Capital, that’s really just net maturities of debt.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we have Steven Winoker from UBS.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks and good morning, all. Just a couple of questions here. First, if I could, on the GE Capital kind of cash walk, cash availability given the $22 billion that you are starting with now. And maybe talk through how you’re thinking about, Jamie, that in terms of asset sales offsetting debt maturities and insurance contributions, kind of what you have left. And then secondly, John, I assume it’s no accident that you are talking about the GE operating system here and you’ve got Larry joining your Board soon. And there’s a lot on that external best practice front to sort of think about in terms of opportunity. Have you sized that opportunity at all and paced it? And is that also what should give us confidence around hitting the EPS walk this year? And sorry about all the questions but I know I might get cut off after this. Thanks.
Jamie Miller:
Hey, good morning. So I will take the GE Capital question here on just how we see liquidity and the asset sales there. So, GE Capital ended the quarter with $22 billion of cash and short-term investments. And we expect to maintain about $15 billion to $20 billion of liquidity through 2018 and 2019 in GE Capital. The asset sales that we talked about in January are well underway. We are seeing a really strong interest in the assets and we have got engagement with multiple parties right now. In March we sold the first tranche of our tax equity portfolio and I think it was a really good template to use for future asset sales. But we see those coming in nicely throughout the balance of 2018 and our outlook right now is that our liquidity profile at Capital should nicely match kind of how we see the needs there in terms of debt maturities and the other flows. John, do you want to talk about the other?
John Flannery:
Yes, let me pick up on that. And Steve, I would just say a few things for context. This idea in general is really something that I’ve been experiencing and thinking about frankly for years. If you look back in the last three roles that I really had in the Company going back to – going to India in 2009. I had a sense in that role of frankly how difficult it could be to try to get things done far away from the center of the Company, if you will, and how much concentration there was of decision-making in the center of the Company. Then went to the BD role and had a sense of how we are allocating capital around the Company and between the units. And then in the Healthcare business another perspective of running a business unit. So those three things really formed a thought in my mind that we needed to decentralize the basic management of the Company and push the responsibility out to the regions, out to the businesses. So I would say that’s just sort of background on the evolution of the thinking, if you will. And then the Crotonville exercise was quite interesting. We had half a dozen people come in, many of whom were ex-GE executives that had gone on to other companies. And we went through what are the things you kept, what made sense, what was helpful. So, that was added to the thinking that we already brought to the table and there clearly are companies that have done this well including Danaher. So, I wouldn’t size this number right now, but I would just say we think it could be meaningful on the cost front at the GE corporate level. We think it could be meaningful in the businesses as well. And then I think the main benefit of this overall over time though is better accountability and really pushing the onus of execution and that sense of ownership down into the business units.
Operator:
Next we have Scott Davis from Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning, guys.
John Flannery:
Good morning, Scott.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Scott Davis:
I’m trying to get a sense of just in the Power business explicitly, and really two small questions here. But one is what is the cost of quality going to – what did it hit you this quarter, what do you think it will hit you this year? And is the $2 billion still the right number? I mean, that $2 billion cost out was based on probably a higher market forecast, certainly a higher market forecast and maybe even a higher longer-term market forecast maybe as you guys have dug in a little bit deeper here. I will stop with that.
Jamie Miller:
Yes, Scott, on the operational side, we are really making progress on that. We still have work to do there, but what I would tell you is that the numbers of issues we are seeing and the size of the issues we are seeing continues to go down. When you look at the real comparison to last year, or even the comparison to our previous guide, some of that is market like I talked about and some of that is a reduction in some of the operational issues we are seeing. But remember, we have got a really strong base cost out profile here. And the actions John talked about are really being layered in beginning in the second half of last year and really throughout this year. And we see that is really pulling through and offsetting some of that incremental noise that we expect. The other piece – and I mentioned this earlier but I will just say it again – that I think is important to think about is that Scott Strazik came in to really run the Power Services business. There have been a number of actions Scott and the team have taken both around how they are organized, how they are running the business between the contractual piece and the transactional piece. And then how they are putting in different changes around pricing, around sales incentive programs and other things that, honestly, that ramps as you go through the year too. And services and Power will tend to be I think a second half peak.
John Flannery:
Scott, I would add one of the thing. Jamie hit the nail on the head on the costs; we just continue to work that item and Russell and the team are working that very hard. I would just underscore the team is battling extremely hard. I am watching this day in, day out. This is the top priority of our team here. And I’d just say the Power team in a tough environment is digging in hard and really giving it every effort. We have made a lot of changes to the team, so not only in terms of the most senior leadership there but down a level – Jamie mentioned Scott. We have a new services CFO, Chuck Nugent, who as I mentioned came over to the Gas Power Systems CEO. The commercial leader has changed, supply chain leader has changed. So in many ways watching this, it reminds me of the first year I had in Healthcare where just – you changed the team, the team coalesces around the focus on cost and improving the business. And it takes time, obviously it took us time to get into this dynamic and it will take us some time to work out it. But I’d, again, applaud the team’s efforts on this.
Operator:
Next we have Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
A couple of questions. So, transactional progression, because it seems profit wise that’s a big swing for Power profitability. I guess you indicated it was up double-digits. Can you just sort of talk about what initiatives you are doing inside the transactional business in Power to drive this growth? And what can it be by year-end, how much visibility you have? And second just more geographic color inside…
John Flannery:
We don’t give a very detailed focus of that business by numbers, but let me tell you a higher level. As we said, there’s really two key factors here. One is visibility into outages in the non-contracted installed base. And then second obviously is the ability to penetrate, capture and get the right margins in that business. We had an issue with visibility into the installed base. So when Scott got into that business last fall we were seeing that we had visibility around 40%. So we just were missing a significant amount of the opportunities there. And they have gone through an exhaustive method to catalog the installed base and make sure we have got good visibility there. That is trending up close to 90%. So step one obviously is to know better what is going on in the market. And then the rest is shoe leather and sales coverage and making sure the teams have good value propositions, understand what to say in front of the customers, the right incentives. And we have, as I said earlier, specific sales incentives around this area of business and particularly the margin rate in this area of the business. So this is a blocking and tackling exercise on visibility and sales execution and we think it will yield results – good results.
Operator:
Next we have Andrew Kaplowitz from Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Hey, good morning, guys.
John Flannery:
Good morning.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
John, can you talk about your line of sight into the $5 billion to $10 billion in Industrial asset sales that you mentioned, and whether you think you will get the valuations that you want on these deals? And then stepping back from there, obviously there has been quite a bit of talk about bigger changes at GE, whether it’s a bigger breakup or spins. Maybe can you give us any color as to what you are thinking at this point on the structure of the Company?
Jamie Miller:
Yes, so Andy, maybe I will take the first piece of that and then throw it over to John for the portfolio piece. So on the dispositions – and John mentioned a number of these things early in the call, but Industrial Solutions, we see that closing in second quarter, $1.9 billion of cash. You probably saw the announcement a couple of weeks ago on Value-Based Care. That’s another $1 billion probably third-quarter close if not second quarter. And then as we really start to move down the list with Distributed Power, a couple of Aviation platforms and Transportation we are seeing strong interest across the board. Multiples will vary by the deals just because the industries are in different cycles, but we see line of sight to these planes landing as we start to get into the second half. The other piece, and I know people have asked this before, so maybe I will just throw it out, is we look at free cash flow going into 2019. If you assume all these close at the end of 2018, these represent about $1.2 billion of free cash flow ex-Industrial Solutions. That’s another data point on that one.
John Flannery:
And then, Andrew, just go back to maybe the principles that we went through before. So first and foremost, strong franchises concentrating, as we said, in Power, Aviation and Healthcare. Step one is to make sure we are running those businesses the best way we can and get the best results out of those businesses. I think we are seeing progress on that result, so that we step into any thinking about the portfolio really on our front foot with the businesses performing well, I think that is where we are. But ultimately we have to think through and I have to think through what is the environment and conditions that will help these businesses flourish not just in 2018 but five years ahead, 10 years ahead, 20 years ahead. And in that regard basically we disclosed earlier and discussed earlier looking at all options. Ultimately it’s a question of what’s the right structure for resources, for organic and inorganic strategic flexibility, for the right level of management execution, for the right level of cost structure and things in the Company overall that we reference. And getting the right outcome for customers, for the employees and for the investors. So, there is no sacred cows. We are reviewing a number of structures. We are working through this right now in great detail with the Board, including our new Board members, we are being deeply thoughtful about this, purposeful about this. And we will give you an update in the next couple of months, as we said earlier. So, there’s a lot of work and engagement. The last thing I would say just, importantly, there are factors to consider. We see them as solvable and manageable, but I want to reiterate we are making no changes to the 2018 capital allocation framework, no change to our financial policies. We will honor all the commitments we have with employees and retirees and bondholders as we consider any options that we would look at.
Operator:
Our final question today comes from Robert McCarthy from Stifel.
Robert McCarthy:
Good morning, everyone. Can you hear me?
John Flannery:
Yes.
Robert McCarthy:
All right, I will keep it quick. In terms of the enumerated assets subject to divestiture, the $20 billion, can you give us an update of what you think the cash conversion, the Industrial free cash flow conversion on those businesses are? And the spirit of the question is what are we playing for here? Because you have got trendline CFOA of probably $11 billion to $13 billion. And from that standpoint with $3 billion of CapEx, what can we be playing for for Industrial free cash flow per share in a bull case in 2019?
Jamie Miller:
So first, we don’t give out 2019 guidance at this point. But I would say a couple of things. So, I mentioned before that these businesses that are in the disposition path represent about $1.2 billion of free cash flow for 2019, assuming they all sort of left at the end of the year and that’s ex-Industrial Solutions. As you get into 2019 there is a couple of other things to remember, most importantly that we’ve got a very heavy load of restructuring cash out this year that really drops as we go into 2019. And so, that offsets a lot, if not more, of the free cash flow exits that we have going. And then as we get into 2019 – as we get into later in the year we will lay out the earnings profile for the businesses. So hopefully that helps at least a little bit at the high-level.
John Flannery:
One thing I would just add to that just to clarify, the $1.2 billion is the free cash flow of that grouping of assets. $5 billion to $10 billion is the cash – range of cash proceeds we see; the actual enterprise value and how those deals are structured would be quite higher than that. So you should not take one and divide by the other for multiple of them. Interest level on these assets is good and the multiples are attractive.
Matt Cribbins:
All right, great. We’d like to thank everyone for joining today. Just as a reminder, the replay of today’s call will be available this afternoon on our Investor website. Next Wednesday we will be holding our annual shareholders meeting in Imperial, Pennsylvania; and, John, you will be at EPG on Wednesday, May 23.
John Flannery:
That’s right. Matt, I’d just like to finish and just say, again, thanks to the GE team. It was a great performance in the quarter by the team, great effort, great focus. And one of the joys of my job is being able to watch you perform around the world. I had a chance to do that in the first quarter. But a reminder to the team and also to everyone else, it’s a step forward in the 2018 plan, but we need to continue to execute, keep the focus there. And the only thing that matters at the end of the day really is delivering the full-year results for 2018 and that’s what we will be focused on. So thanks and we will see you at EPG. All right, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matt Cribbins - VP, Investor Communications John Flannery - Chairman and CEO Jamie Miller - SVP and CFO Russell Stokes - President and CEO, GE Power
Analysts:
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Andrew Kaplowitz - Citi Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Steven Winoker - UBS Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Scott Davis - Melius Research Gautam Khanna - Cowen and Company Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Robert McCarthy - Stifel
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. My name is Ellen and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matt Cribbins:
Good morning and welcome to today's webcast. I'm here with our Chairman and CEO John Flannery; CFO Jamie Miller; and GE Power CEO Russell Stokes. Before we start, I would like to remind you that the press release, presentation, and supplemental have been available since earlier today on our investor website at www.ge.com/investor. Please note some of the statements we are making today are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. And now, I’ll turn the call over to John.
John Flannery:
Thanks, Matt. Before I start in on the quarter, I'd like to take a moment to step back and review where we stand and the progress we've made in just a short time. You've heard a lot from us since I became CEO in August. I recognize that the news we've shared in that time, specifically around Power and Insurance, has been tough. We are moving very quickly to tackle these issues and we are doing so in the context of running our businesses for the long-term. Our responsibility is to reshape this company and ensure that GE matters as much in the next century as it has in the past one. And as I take stock today, I feel good about the progress we are making and especially good about the strength of our team. We have a long way to go, but the mission is clear and we are moving forward together as one team with a single purpose. The backbone of our recovery is stronger execution. Back in November, we laid out a new vision for the future, the foundation of which was improved execution, an obsession with cash generation and capital allocation, a more focused digital and additive strategy, and a rapid reshaping of the portfolio to become a simpler, more nimble organization. Today, I'm proud to report that this organization is responding and we are beginning to show progress against each of our key initiatives. The teams have stepped up and embraced the challenges. And in this quarter, we are beginning to see the signs of what they can accomplish when called upon to pursue common goals and drive improvement. We have a lot to work on, but we also have a lot to work with. The team and I are as convinced as ever that the strength of our core businesses remains intact. We have valuable franchises with leadership positions in key global markets. And we have a path ahead that will create the best outcomes for our customers, great opportunities for our team, and will create value for our shareholders through stronger execution and more disciplined operational performance. As I said, the results this quarter demonstrate some of the early progress we are seeing across our key initiatives. In Healthcare, we introduced 26 new products in 2017, and we're especially proud of the new Senographe Pristina mammography system. It's the industry's first patient-assisted mammography device and it's indicative of the kind of innovation and investments we are making to improve Healthcare and save lives. It is also resulted in significant market share gain and profit margin gain. In Aviation, I am excited by the progress we are making in Additive. In the quarter, we announced the world's largest laser powder additive manufacturing machine. It will print in a build envelope of one meter cubed, which is suitable for jet engine structural components. Our additive capabilities are truly game changing and we expect to increase the pace of additive utilization to drive higher margins and innovation across our businesses in 2018. We shipped 119 units in the quarter and 294 in the year, while our backlog in the fourth quarter was up 44% from last year. Additive is positioned to break even in 2018 and we believe there is a tremendous potential here. While the Power market remains challenging, we have made progress in rightsizing the organization, taking out $800 million of costs and rationalizing our manufacturing footprint. We continue to see cost opportunities here and are laser-focused on achieving them in 2018. The team is up for the challenge and is focusing above all else on delivering for our customers. At Baker Hughes, the team is demonstrating disciplined execution in successfully capturing synergies through the integration. And the business has a clear path for profit growth in 2018. I am also pleased with Digital's performance in the fourth quarter as we refocused our strategy on our core markets. Predix-powered orders were up 41% and we did $1.4 billion for the year, up 150%. The team is driving customer outcomes with APM, OPM, and ServiceMax. We have only penetrated 8% of the installed base today, so there is a lot of opportunity here and we are aggressively going after it. With respect to our key operating priorities, let's start with cash. Cash in the fourth quarter was significantly better than we planned, about $2.5 billion higher. About half of this was due to the timing of progress payments and the other half was a result of better execution. As you recall from our discussion in November, cash has been our number one focus and also in the minds of our investors, given the weak performance we had through the first three quarters. The results this quarter reflect more discipline and execution. We are focused on improving our visibility, execution, and tenacity on cash. It's a similar story on costs. We came into the year with a structural cost-out target of $1 billion. We raised that in the third quarter to $1.5 billion and we delivered a little higher than that, at $1.7 billion for the year. We have strong execution and discipline on costs. We are targeting an additional $2 billion out in 2018. In addition to that, we are particularly focused on product costs, attacking cost of quality, reducing manufacturing overhead, and accelerating the implementation of additive design and manufacturing. We are confident that we will deliver on that goal. The team is also highly active in working towards simplifying the portfolio. We currently have over 20 dispositions in active discussions and you will begin to see tangible results in the coming quarters. We ended the year with $11 billion of GE Industrial cash. There is no change to the capital allocation plan previously communicated on November 13. We plan to increase our cash balance in 2018 and exit the year with $15-billion-plus of cash. We will make a voluntary $6 billion debt-funded contribution to our principal pension plan. And we will maintain a disciplined financial policy targeting 2.5 times net debt to EBITDA and A1/P1 short-term ratings. We are on track to shrink the Board from 18 to 12, including 3 new directors. We expect to be in position to announce the new Board prior to the proxy statement. So at the overall company level, we are intensely focused on operational rigor, cash and capital allocation, and deep cost reduction. Our first priority is running the Company well. As I mentioned last week, at the same time, we are reviewing the best structure of the Company to maximize the long-term potential of our businesses and deliver the best value for our customers and employees. We have a team dedicated to considering all the details and looking at the options that will deliver the best value for our shareholders and the most attractive jobs for our employees. The truly enduring strength of GE lies in our people. There will be a GE in the future, but it will look different than it does today. We will update you when the team has made further progress. I am very pleased that we are beginning to show these tangible signs of progress, but I'm also cognizant this is only the beginning. 2018 is a critical year for us and we intend to continue demonstrating in the coming quarters that our new approach is working and the organization is changing. With that, let me turn to the quarter. Clearly, 2017 was a challenging year for us and fourth quarter had a lot of moving pieces. We had significant charges in the quarter for insurance, tax reform, and planned portfolio moves. These charges totaled $1.49 of EPS. Excluding those charges, adjusted EPS was $1.05, at the low end of the EPS guide we gave you for the year. Issues in the quarter were mostly localized to Power. The power market continues to be challenging. Power earnings were down 88% in the quarter, driven by the market, certain execution misses, and other charges. This is an important franchise going through a difficult period. The team is working with amazing dedication and resilience and they have the support of the entire GE Company behind them. I've asked Russell to give you an update on the quarter and take you through our action plan on the business in a few minutes. Strong results in Aviation and Healthcare continued in the fourth quarter and for the full year. In the fourth quarter, Aviation grew margins 40 basis points while shipping 202 LEAP engines. Healthcare grew revenue 6% and earnings 13%. These two businesses continue to be premier leadership franchises in their industries. Cash in the quarter was $7.8 billion. We had strong performances in Aviation and Healthcare. And we reduced structural costs an additional $500 million in the fourth quarter, with good performance in Power and Corporate. 2017 is behind us and the team is focused on delivering in 2018. With respect to orders, fourth-quarter orders totaled $35 billion, up 3% reported, but down 5% organically. Equipment and service orders were both down 5% organically. Jamie will walk you through the drivers by business. Overall, the decline in equipment orders was driven by Power and Renewables, partially offset by strength in Healthcare and Transportation. Service orders were strong in Renewables, Aviation, and Healthcare, but were offset by softness in Power and Transportation. Backlog finished the year at $341 billion, up $13 billion versus last quarter. And now I will walk you through some market highlights on the right. Power remains challenging. We expect the overall market for new gas orders in 2017 to be less than 35 gigawatts and we are planning for it to be down again next year. Long term, gas is going to remain an important component of power generation. We have a valuable asset and generate one-third of the world's electricity. The aviation industry continues to experience strong growth. Global revenue passenger kilometers grew 7.7 year to date, with strong growth both domestically and internationally. Air freight volumes have been very strong as well, growing almost 10% October year to date. Load factors globally remain above 80%, demonstrating strength in the sector. In Healthcare, the US markets and European markets are stable, seeing mid-single-digit growth in 2017. Emerging markets remain strong, with double-digit growth. Renewables onshore continues to see strong growth, but there is significant price pressure across the industry. In the US we saw a slowdown in market activity pending the resolution of the tax bill, which was signed in December. The US market continues to be very healthy, but we expect to see pricing pressures as the impact of tax reform is digested in the wind tax equity markets. Next, let me walk through revenue, margins, and costs. For the quarter, segment revenues were $32 billion, up 3% reported and down 6% organic. The difference was driven mainly by the impact of the Baker Hughes acquisition. Power, Oil & Gas, and Transportation all had negative organic revenues on lower volumes. Renewables organic was up on continued re-power strength, and Healthcare saw broad strength as well. For the year, revenues were $116 billion, up 3% and flat organic. Industrial margins were 11.2% in the quarter, down 560 basis points. You really have two camps here. Power and Oil & Gas margins were down sharply. Industrial margins were up 200 basis points collectively in the rest of the Company. Healthcare margins were up 130 basis points in the quarter and 70 basis points in the year. In March of 2016, we presented a plan to grow margins 150 basis points to 18% over 3 years. The Healthcare team delivered on that a year early, hitting 18% in 2017 and will continue to grow margins in 2018. Aviation had an outstanding year on margins, increasing margins 100 basis points while delivering 459 LEAP engines. As I mentioned earlier, we've made good progress on structural cost, taking out $500 million in the fourth quarter and $1.7 billion for the year. And we have good momentum going into 2018. And now I will turn it over to Jamie.
Jamie Miller:
Thanks, John. Before I start with consolidated results, I want to remind you of some of the changes to our reporting metrics in 2018 that we discussed in November. First, on EPS, this is the last quarter that we report Industrial plus Verticals EPS. In addition to GAAP earnings, we will report an adjusted EPS number, which is total continuing operations excluding Industrial gains, restructuring, and non-operating pension expense. On cash, we will move to reporting free cash flow as opposed to CFOA. And lastly, two changes related to the adoption of the new revenue recognition accounting standard. As of January 1, 2018, our contract asset balances will be adjusted to reflect the new standard, resulting in a lower asset balance and lower earnings going forward. This doesn't change anything related to our cash balances or cash flows. We will provide restated 2016 and 2017 quarterly information on a basis consistent with the new accounting. We are still in the process of finalizing the newly restated financials and we will provide them to you shortly after we file the 10-K. Related to the accounting standard change is also a move to reporting remaining performance obligations, or RPO. RPO is a new GAAP measure and we will report RPO in the first quarter once it is implemented. Additionally, you may have noticed that our earnings press release has a new format. We believe it's more substantive and more easily digestible. We will continue to re-look at all of our communications formats and data that we provide to investors with the goal to continue to increase standardization and transparency. So you will likely see more changes as we move throughout 2018. Next, on consolidated results, fourth-quarter revenues were $31.4 billion, down 5%. For the quarter, Industrial plus Verticals EPS was negative $1.23, down from $0.46 in fourth quarter 2016. Included in the negative $1.23 was $1.49 of charges driven by the Insurance-related adjustments we discussed last week, the impacts of tax reform, and portfolio-related actions we are taking in Industrial. Excluding these items, Industrial plus Vertical EPS was $0.27 in the quarter, still down significantly year over year, driven principally by the Power segment. Operating EPS was negative $1.11. This incorporates other continuing GE Capital activity, which I will cover more on the GE Capital page. Continuing EPS of negative $1.15 includes the impact of non-operating pension, and net EPS of negative $1.13 includes the results of discontinued operations. Next on taxes, the GE Industrial tax rate was negative 576% in the quarter, reflecting a tax charge on a pre-tax loss. This includes charges in the quarter related to US tax reform. And excluding tax reform and Industrial gains, restructuring, and fourth-quarter other charges, our tax rate was negative 7% for the quarter and positive 15% for the year. On the right side are the segment results. Industrial op profit was down 33%. The decline year over year was driven principally by Power and Oil & Gas and partially offset by Aviation, Healthcare, and Corporate, better year over year. As John mentioned, we took another $500 million of structural cost-out in the quarter and I will cover the individual segment dynamics separately. On the next page, our reported cash from operating activities was $7 billion in the quarter. That represents GE cash flow including 100% of Baker Hughes CFOA. We did not receive a dividend from GE Capital in the quarter and this is in line with our prior communications. And we don't expect to receive a dividend from GE Capital for the foreseeable future. Our Industrial CFOA was $7.4 billion in the quarter, adjusted for $400 million of US principal pension plan funding and deal taxes. And this is down $800 million from the prior year. With Baker Hughes GE on a dividend basis and excluding the Baker Hughes GE CFOA, our Industrial CFOA was $7.8 billion. For the year, our total Industrial CFOA adjusted for Baker Hughes GE was $9.7 billion. This came in above our full-year guidance of $7 billion, driven primarily by better-than-expected progress collections and contract asset performance. The Aviation and Healthcare businesses turned in strong performances, and the cash performance of Power was in line with expectations. On the right-hand side, I have some color on the components of cash activity in fourth quarter. First, working capital generated a total positive flow of $3.9 billion, principally driven by better inventory flows from higher shipments and higher-than-expected progress flows of about $700 million. This was partially offset by an increase in receivables, consistent with our sequentially higher sales in fourth quarter. Contract assets were flat during the quarter on favorable cash inflows from lower CSA contract asset growth, offset by cash usage from growth in deferred inventory in Power and Renewables. All other operating cash flow, including deferred taxes, was a $6 billion inflow, driven primarily by non-cash expenses such as held-for-sale charges, the impact of tax reform, and amortization of intangible assets. For the year, we generated $5.6 billion of free cash flow with an 81% conversion rate. There is no change to our 2018 guidance of $6 billion to $7 billion of free cash flow. However, in 2018, we do expect the challenging power markets to continue and potentially be worse than we expected. Additionally, the accelerated progress collections in the fourth quarter will present some headwinds to our free cash flow, particularly in the first quarter, which is always our lowest cash quarter. We are planning for a negative free cash flow quarter in first quarter. We remain focused on our operating rigor and execution on cash, with compensation heavily tied to cash performance. And we are evaluating incremental restructuring at Power. We will update you on this as decisions are made. Next is the cash balance walk for 2017. I am not going to go through all of this, but you can see the detail on the left-hand side of the page. Excluding Baker Hughes GE, we started the year with $8.4 billion of cash and ended at $11.2 billion. We are focused on improving the strength of our balance sheet with a disciplined capital allocation framework. During the quarter, we executed $13 billion of new operating credit lines, which provide greater security and flexibility as we execute our transition throughout 2018. We expect to end 2018 with more than $15 billion of cash. Before I cover the segments, I will go through the other items for the quarter. First, on Industrial restructuring and other items, we incurred $0.08 of charges. $0.05 of that was related to GE, excluding Oil & Gas, and was primarily driven by the cost-reduction actions we are taking at Corporate, Power, and Renewables. We incurred an additional $0.03 related to our Oil & Gas segment, which represents our portion of Baker Hughes GE's restructuring, most of which was synergy-related. Second, as we covered at our November 13 investor meeting, we are taking actions to focus the portfolio. We announced our intent to exit several businesses and some of these decisions have resulted in charges as we move the assets to held for sale. We incurred a $0.10 charge related to Lighting and $0.06 related to 2 platform exits in Aviation. In addition to the held-for-sale impact, we recorded a $0.02 charge for an incremental goodwill impairment in power conversion. As we began our portfolio actions, it became clear that the value of power conversion could not support the remaining goodwill, which has now been fully written off. As we disclosed last week, we incurred $0.91 of charges related to GE Capital's insurance business and related actions we are taking to shrink certain GE Capital businesses. We also recorded a $0.40 charge related to US tax reform. I will cover these items on the next two pages. On the bottom right of the page, just given all the moving pieces, I will walk you through a reconciliation of EPS. You will remember that in October we provided full-year guidance of $1.05 to $1.10, which excluded Insurance and GE Capital-related actions. It excluded portfolio-related charges and also tax reform. So starting at the top, we earned $0.77 of EPS through the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, we reported Industrial plus Verticals EPS of negative $1.23. Adjusting for the items that were excluded from our guide -- $0.91 related to Insurance and GE Capital actions, $0.18 related to portfolio, and $0.40 related to tax reform -- our fourth-quarter adjusted EPS was $0.27. This results in a total-year adjusted EPS number of $1.05, at the low end of the range we provide. As we mentioned last week, we recorded a pre-tax charge of $9.5 billion and an after-tax charge of $6.2 billion related to Insurance. The related statutory capital contributions will be approximately $15 billion, which will be funded over the next seven years. We estimate that our 2018 funding requirement will be approximately $3 billion. At this point, we estimate the annual contributions from 2019 to 2024 to be approximately $2 billion. There was no impact to our ratings and we don't expect this to impact our 2018 capital allocation plan. We are taking actions to make GE Capital more focused, including exiting most of Energy Financial Services and reducing the size of Industrial Finance. As a result, we recorded non-cash charges of $1.8 billion for impairments at EFS in the quarter. We expect GE Capital continuing earnings in 2018 and 2019 to be about breakeven. That could be higher or lower depending on the timing of asset sales. And post the actions in 2020, we expect GE Capital earnings to be about $500 million as excess debt runs off. We also do not expect dividends for the foreseeable future from GE Capital. GE Capital ended the year with $31 billion of cash and liquidity. We also expect to generate incremental cash of approximately $15 billion from planned asset reduction actions over the next two years. And consequently don't expect to issue debt until 2020, which is a year later than previously communicated. These actions will provide sufficient liquidity to continue to fund the Insurance contributions. I also want to note that we have been notified by the SEC that they are investigating the process leading to the insurance reserve increase and the fourth-quarter charge as well as GE's revenue recognition and controls for long-term service agreements. We are cooperating fully with the investigation, which is in very early stages. Next, on US tax reform, since the Insurance call last week, the impact from US tax reform increased slightly to $3.5 billion from $3.4 billion as we finalized our review. The Industrial impact was $3.7 billion, partly offset by a benefit in GE Capital of $200 million. Of the $3.5 billion charge, $1.2 billion relates to the transition tax on overseas earnings and $2.2 billion is driven by the revaluation of our deferred tax positions and the write-off of existing credits that will no longer be available for use under the new tax law. We expect the cash impact related to the transition to be modest over the next several years, as existing tax attributes, both credits and losses, will largely offset the payments required. Longer term, we expect our Industrial tax rate to be in the low to mid 20%s, excluding disposition taxes. This is higher than the rate we have experienced over the last few years due to the lower benefits from tax credit loss transactions compared to recent history. We expect our tax rate over the next couple of years to be in the mid to high teens. Overall, we think tax reform is a real positive for US companies. On Power, I'll give you a quick overview of the quarter and then Russell will walk you through more detail in a few pages. Orders of $10.2 billion were down 25%, with equipment down 24% and services down 26%. Revenues of $9.4 billion were down 15%. Op profit for the quarter was $260 million, which was significantly below prior year and below our expectations. We incurred charges for several items and had year-over-year headwinds that negatively impacted the segment versus fourth quarter of 2016 by about $850 million. Adjusting for these items, the business was still well below expectations. Russell will take you through the market and volume dynamics as well as the operational and execution issues we experienced. Next on Renewables, orders of $3.3 billion were down 2%. Onshore orders were $2.8 billion, down 10%, driven by equipment being down 19%. Offset partially by services, up 38%, reflecting the strong US re-powering market. US equipment orders were up 6%, offset by lower international orders. In total, we booked orders for 1,165 turbines, which was down 2%. But with megawatts, it was up 2% at 2.8 gigawatts. This dynamic reflects significant price pressure in the quarter. We've seen price pressure increase during the year due to a competitive US market and as the international markets have been gradually moving to using an auction bid process. Revenues were $2.9 billion, up 15% reported and up 9% on an organic basis. Onshore wind was up 5%, with equipment down 26%, offset by strong re-powering service, which was up 3 times. Operating profit was up 25% reported and 11% organically. This was driven by re-powering volume and cost-out, offset partially by continuing unfavorable price. The Renewables markets remain very competitive, particularly in onshore wind. The onshore wind market continues to see strong megawatt growth, but pricing is a significant headwind. Pricing for the total year was down about 10%, mostly driven by onshore turbines. The business is focused on cost-out across all product lines. For first quarter 2018, we expect op profit down significantly year over year, mainly driven by lower turbine shipments in the US and continuous price pressure in the market. On Aviation, orders in the quarter totaled $8 billion, up 11%. Equipment orders grew 2%. Commercial engine orders were down 1% at $1.8 billion, and services orders grew 17% on higher commercial spares rate of $27.4 million a day, up 36%. Revenues in the quarter were flat at $7.2 billion. Equipment revenues were down 6% on fewer legacy engine shipments, partially offset by higher LEAP engine shipments. Aviation shipped 202 LEAP engines this quarter, up 158 units versus last year. Services revenue grew 6% on higher commercial spares and military. Operating profit of $1.8 billion was up 2%, driven by favorable service and military volume and mix, cost productivity, and value gap, partly offset by higher LEAP shipments. Operating margins expanded 40 basis points despite delivering a record number of LEAP engines in the quarter. Aviation had another strong year, delivering 459 LEAP engines with improving cost positions and margin expansion of 100 basis points. The LEAP engine continues to perform to specifications for both reliability and performance. In 2018, we expect continued solid RPK growth despite rising fuel costs and high-single-digit growth in GE CFM shop visits. We are on track to meet our delivery commitment of 1,200 LEAP engines in 2018 with a production volume of more than 2,000 engines by 2020. Military is on track for mid-single-digit growth. The team is executing well on cost-out and is committed to holding margins flat despite the steep LEAP ramp. Healthcare orders of $5.9 billion were up 9% versus last year. Geographically, organic orders were up 7% in the US, 7% in Europe, and emerging markets grew 11%, driven by China up by 9%, and the Middle East up by 35%. On a product basis, Healthcare systems orders grew 9% on an organic basis, driven by ultrasound higher by 6% and imaging up 15%, with good performance in CT and mammography. Life Sciences grew 4% organically, driven by bioprocess up 2% and core imaging up 4%. For the year, Life Sciences orders grew 9% organically, with bioprocess up 12% and core imaging up 7%. Revenues in the quarter of $5.4 billion grew 4% organically, with HCS higher by 4% and Life Sciences up 5%. Operating profit was up 13%, including a small gain on a disposition of a non-strategic operation in Healthcare Digital. Excluding the gain, op profit grew 10% organically, driven by volume and productivity, partly offset by price and program investments. Margins expanded by 130 basis points reported. The Healthcare business had a strong year in 2017. Underlying market dynamics are expected to be relatively similar in 2018, and the Healthcare team is invested in the right programs while improving operational rigor, which we expect to continue to drive strong results as we move throughout the year. Next, on Oil & Gas, Baker Hughes GE released its financial results this morning at 6:45 a.m. And Lorenzo and his team will hold their earnings call with investors today at 9:30. Orders were $5.8 billion, up 73% reported and down 9% organically. On a combined pro forma basis, orders were down 2%. Revenues were $5.8 billion, up 69% reported and down 13% organically. And on a pro forma basis, revenues were down 3%. Operating profit was $307 million, down 25% reported and down about 75% in our legacy Oil & Gas business. This was primarily driven by the longer-cycle oilfield equipment and turbo machinery businesses. The business realized $81 million of synergies in the quarter and $119 million since the deal closed in mid-2017. During the quarter, cash distributions from Baker Hughes GE totaled $433 million, including the share repurchases and the quarterly dividend of $129 million. Lorenzo and Brian will provide more details on their call today. At Transportation, orders of $2.1 billion were up 56% on low comparisons. Equipment orders were $1.1 billion, which included orders for 358 total locomotives versus zero in fourth quarter 2016. Mining orders were up 3 times from last year. Services orders of $1 billion were down 23%, primarily driven by the non-repeat of a large Class I mods order in the fourth quarter of 2016. Revenues of $1 billion were down 20%, with equipment down 37% with locomotive volume down from 171 units to 79, partially offset by mining wheels up 3 times. Services revenue was down 3% or $16 million, driven by lower transactional volume. Op profit was down 40%, driven by locomotive volume, partially offset by mining volume and continued cost controls and restructuring. In 2018, we expect locomotive shipments to be about 250 units, mostly driven by international deliveries. The team is continuing to operate the business with rigor and is actively engaged as we position for possible disposition. On Current and Lighting, revenues for Current and Lighting were down 7%, with Current up 9% and the legacy Lighting business down 21%. Op profit was $50 million, up from $3 million last year. Finally, I will cover GE Capital. On the page I provided both reported net income and adjusted net income. The adjusted net income column excludes the effects of the Insurance charges, the related EFS impairments, and tax reform. Since we covered those topics earlier, I will talk you through the adjusted column, which reflects the core operations of GE Capital. The Verticals core earnings were $122 million in the quarter, down 74% from prior year, driven primarily by higher impairments in EFS and lower tax benefits and base earnings, partially offset by higher gains. Other continuing operations generated $1 billion in earnings in the quarter, driven by $1.6 billion of tax benefits, partially offset by $297 million of excess interest expense, $123 million of HQ operating expenses and restructuring costs, and $184 million of preferred equity costs. Discontinued operations generated earnings of $182 million, primarily driven by gains associated with the GE Capital exit plan. GE Capital ended the quarter with $157 billion of assets, including $31 billion of cash and short-term investments, largely in line with the third quarter. Now I will hand it over to Russell to cover Power.
Russell Stokes:
Thank you, Jamie. On November 13, I shared with you that we had a significant opportunity to improve the way we run the Power business. I spoke of fixing operating misses, the prioritization of cash performance, in line with a focus on income. And I outlined our return to driving a more holistic services capture of dollars per installed base versus pursuing upgrades and productivity in our contractual portfolio. I am confident in what I said in November. And I will talk in more detail about what we are doing to move the business forward. But let me first walk you through the results for the fourth quarter and the impact on total year. Starting with a view on orders, our orders in the quarter were down 25%. Equipment orders of $5.3 billion were down 24%, driven by GPS being down 63%, primarily on lower combined cycle turnkey scope. In the quarter, gas turbine orders were up 1 unit at 24 versus 23 units in prior year, with the increase driven by nine H units versus eight in the prior year. Total-year gas turbine orders were 75 units, which is down 9 versus prior year. Aero units were also lower, with 3 units ordered in the quarter versus 24 last year, with total-year units at 46, down 33 versus prior year. In December, we noted that the market was softer than expected, with Mccoy comments indicating that the industry could be heading for the lowest gigawatt year since 2002. We announced a 12,000-person reduction and a commitment to right-size our global manufacturing footprint. We believe that total gigawatts awarded will be even softer than we thought in December, coming in below 35 gigawatts in 2017. And still anticipate, though, roughly a 50% share of the market in 2017. We are working to accelerate additional restructuring efforts in 2018 to support a market that could be as low as 30 gigawatts. Service orders were $4.9 billion, down 26% on lower AGP orders, which were down 59% at 24 units versus 58. This was partially offset by higher grid solution services, which was up 54%. In the quarter, Power revenues were down 15%. Equipment revenues of $4.5 billion were down 15% on lower aero units. Aero unit shipments were 3 versus 31 last year, accounting for all of the decline. Total-year aero shipments were 40 versus 95 last year. Aero units, particularly our fast-power TM units, are typically convertible within the quarter. These units serve customers in difficult geographies and usually require some form of financing arrangements. We have transactions in the pipeline we expect to close in the first half of the year, but we believe that the 2018 aero shipments will be in the 30- to 40-unit range. We shipped 39 gas turbines in the quarter, 4 more than prior year, including eight H shipments versus nine last year. This would put total-year gas turbine shipments at 102, in line with our estimate of 100 to 105 unit range. In 2018, we expect shipments to be 60 to 70 units, with 15 H units in that count. Services revenues were $4.9 billion, down 16% on lower CSAs and upgrades down 17%, and outages down 10%. AGPs in the quarter totaled 25 versus 62 last year. This puts our AGP shipments at 80 versus total year, at the lower end of the 80 to 85 range we provided in November. For 2018, we expect about 40 AGPs. Op profit of $260 million was down 88% or $1.9 billion and significantly below our expectations. Let me walk the $1.9 billion decrease. As Jamie mentioned, there were about $850 million of charges, slow-moving and obsolete inventory in Power Services, Gas Power Systems, and Power Conversion accounted for a little bit less than half of the amount. The remainder was primarily comprised of the non-repeat of favorable FX from fourth quarter of 2016, the absence of Water income, which was sold in 3Q 2017, a litigation settlement, and the bankruptcy of one of our distributors. Market and volume contributed about $550 million of the year-over-year decline, primarily driven by aero unit shipments and the Power Services upgrade volume, as I just discussed. The remaining $500 million of decline was related to execution and operations. There was about $450 million of cost overruns in our project business, primarily in GPS, Grid, and Power Conversion. The issues included liquidated damages, logistic cost, and unfavorable cost on turnkey products that were underwritten several years ago. The remaining decline was driven by lower pricing, higher field costs, and an unfavorable mix in our transactional service business. But this was partially offset by better execution on base cost by roughly $230 million. Our services transactional business, including Alstom, saw significant declines in margin in fourth quarter of 2017 versus prior year. These margin declines are consistent with what we've been experiencing throughout the year related to pricing and cost execution. And highlights the opportunity we have in improving our holistic focus on dollar per installed base entitlement. Scott Strazik has been put in the role of Power Services' CEO. And he and the team are intensely focused on improving our outage penetration margin rate performance. I will provide more details on that on the next page. As I mentioned earlier, for the year, the markets were softer than expected. Deals are taking longer to close and are very competitive. We are expecting the markets to be less than the 35 gigawatts in 2017 and we are preparing our restructuring plans for a market that could be as low as 30 gigawatts in 2018. We are proud of the HA gas turbine technology. It is operating in line with performance guarantees. While we've had some issues related to commissioning at certain sites, we readily address them. And have commenced working on supply chain and project organizations to address volume ramp issues and things considered normal learning curve process. We have 23 units installed and over 70,000 hours of experience, with all of the units performing to specifications and guarantees. Next, I'd like to give you some visibility into the progress we are making in rewiring the Power business. Since taking the role, I'm encouraged by the continued support of our customers, who look to us to deliver outcomes that allow them to deliver for their customers. I am absolutely committed to the operational excellence and disciplines required to deliver for them as well as our investors and want to reiterate how we are moving forward. Our first priority is reducing our structure and footprint. In 2017, we took out $800 million in structural costs, with $230 million of cost-out in fourth quarter, achieved with a strict focus on our controllable cost pools. In addition, we reduced our manufacturing and repair footprint by 15 sites, in line with our stated goal of a 30% reduction by 2020. We are well on track for the $1 billion of cost-out we previously committed for 2018 and are assessing further opportunities to align our cost structure for a softer market reality. The need to interrogate all areas of our operations and drive meaningful results is very clear to me. This is why we created our operational excellence team with a group of cross-functional dedicated SPRINT teams working in war rooms and building digital scorecards as a single source of truth with critical Xs aligned to critical business-wide outcomes. To accomplish this, we must continue to invest in our IT infrastructure. We started 2017 with 74 ERPs, reducing them by 10 during the year with a successful major implementation in our Greenville factory. Still, this leaves us with 64 ERP systems and far too much system complexity, which is why we are focused on reducing the number of total ERPs by 80% by 2020, giving our employees more timely and accurate information to track and deliver critical business and customer outcomes. In the quarter, these teams demonstrated progress in our cash generation disciplines, contributing to the favorable cash performance for the Company in the quarter. The leadership and focus on material management and collections performance, including past dues and project billings, allowed us to deliver on our working capital commitments despite lower-than-expected new orders. We have established clear performance goals for the Power business and are executing clear plays to achieve them. For example, we believe that we can improve inventory turns by 2 times by 2020 from the current 4 turns we see in 2018, even in a lower volume world through a great focus on our material management processes, a commitment to lean, and the liquidation of existing finished goods. This requires a $1 billion reduction in our inventory balances in 2018 and the teams are already driving detailed plans by site to get there. To improve margins, we launched SPRINT teams, focused on project execution with a laser-focus on attacking schedule and cost overruns. In 2017, our Grid business moved all schedules and cost into a centralized digital application. We linked all execution and billing milestones to the ERP and ensured cross-functional teams were aligned with clarity of accountability and with the visibility to monitor progress or performance deviations. I am confident that we can inject these same capabilities into GPS in 2018. We've launched dedicated team efforts on transactional services to increase our performance around holistic dollar per installed base penetration. In the fourth quarter, we conducted an outage blitz by region to identify and account for all outages on our technology that we were not yet tracking. As a result, we improved our visibility into the outages in our transactional fleet, up from 28% in October to 70% today. We believe this highlights an entitlement opportunity that is $1 billion to $2 billion higher than our 2017 run rate. We have organized our commercial teams and compensation incentives to deliver on both the contractual and transactional portfolio. We have identified additional leadership changes that we felt were necessary and have executed on those accordingly. The services leadership team is new with a more focused alignment. Our supply chain leader is new, reporting directly to me. And we are in the process of transitioning our leader in Gas Power Systems. As I've said before, 2018 will be another challenging year. Renewables penetration will continue to increase and challenge the gas markets. But I fundamentally believe gas power will remain an important contributor to the energy mix going forward. We are privileged to have the world's largest installed base and our CSA utilization is performing as expected. While we saw a sharp reduction in upgrades this year, driven by the IPP capacity markets, extended service intervals, and market overcapacity, we are improving our commercial intensity and execution in a transactional outage market, which we have under whelmed in the past. As a power business, we are focused on the things we can control
John Flannery:
Things, Russell. I am going to wrap up with the 2018 framework. There's no change to our industrial EPS or free cash flow guidance. Capital earnings will be lower due to the portfolio actions we are taking. Aviation and Healthcare are well positioned to deliver in 2018. Power markets continue to be tough, but we will manage this tightly. We are targeting free cash flow of $6 billion to $7 billion. Jamie mentioned we had some progress payments move into 2017. At the same time, we are focused on improving working capital and reducing CapEx. We are making progress on cost and cash. We are strengthening our balance sheet and ended the year with $11 billion of GE Industrial cash. Russell and the team are focused on fixing Power and they have the support of the company behind them. Aviation and Healthcare had excellent performance in 2017 and are well positioned for 2018. We’re running the businesses better and simplifying the portfolio. So with that, Matt, I will turn it back over to you.
Matt Cribbins:
Thanks, John. With that, let's open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, guys. Good morning. So I have two questions. First one, with the lower base and profit, there is a lot moving around here. I think the prior segment guide was in kind of the $13 billion to $14 billion range on segment profits. And I guess Power specifically was going to be down 25%. What are you looking for next year with regards to those two metrics? And then as a follow-up, the contract asset guidance of negative $3 billion next year in free cash flow. Has that changed at all relative to what we've seen here in the fourth quarter and your approach to project selectivity?
Jamie Miller:
So Steve, when you look at the 2018 segment outlook, we had laid that out for everyone back on November 13. Really, there is no change to how we are thinking about Industrial. So however you had thought about it before, the only thing to adjust really is how 2017 ended. The second piece of that to think about is last week on the Insurance call, we talked about with the GE Capital actions GE Capital would be about breakeven next year. And that's the other thing to think about as you work through that. Now on the contract assets piece, no change to how we thought about 2018. We still expect that to consume working capital of about $3 billion. Contract assets were roughly flat in the fourth quarter. But that is something that while we are pleased to see that and we have implemented a number of different controls on that, we are not starting to see that really take hold yet. So we don't expect to see that goodness or that shift really start to flow in 2018 yet.
Steve Tusa:
So then how are you guys maintaining guidance if GE Capital is a little lighter and your base performance in 4Q was obviously on a segment profit basis below where I think most of us were expecting it because of Power?
John Flannery:
So Steve, on that one, just a couple of thoughts here. One
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Jamie Miller:
Good morning.
John Flannery:
Morning.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
John or Jamie, can you give us more color about the cash dynamics you saw in the fourth quarter? What ultimately do you think your teams did differently to deliver the better execution on the cash in the quarter? And can you talk about why progress collections were stronger than expected? Was it just timing? And does the fourth quarter's cash performance give you more confidence that you can deliver on your cash generation expectations in 2018 despite a weaker dollar business?
Jamie Miller:
Sure, I will walk you through the pieces of the fourth-quarter cash flow and can comment on your questions as I go through it. So first, working capital helped us by about $3.9 billion in the quarter. A good chunk of that was inventory, about $2.2 billion of inventory. We really saw strength across the board across the businesses as just fourth-quarter shipments were liquidated and things moved through. On progress, a lot of that is billing and milestone payments. But we did see, as we mentioned earlier, some accelerated progress into the fourth quarter. Some timing that we didn't expect. That was about $1 billion. When you look operationally in terms of receivables, we did see past dues drop by about 4 points. And the team has done very good work there. We saw some of that movement throughout the year, but a nice drop in fourth quarter. We expect that work to continue as we go into 2018. And then on contract assets, I mentioned before that really the deferred was flat. Some of the controls that we're implementing are things like just really making sure that we are much tighter on our underwriting, not only how we think about the strike zone around returns, but importantly how the cash profile really looks on these contracts going out several years. Look, when you look at why it was flat in the quarter, a lot of that had to do with lower shop costs coming through at Aviation, which really pulled through just less revenue and a little bit on timing of revenue and billing. So while we are not seeing the effect of these controls yet, we do expect to see this over the next couple of years. Look, I'm happy with what we've done on inventory. I think the finished goods burn-down was really favorable. Good work on AR. But we have a lot more work to do and I think also a lot more opportunity here. Turns were flat for the year on inventory. And then on contract assets, I'm pleased with it. But again, more work to do here and expect to see more.
John Flannery:
Andy, the other thing I would say here is just working the cash flow is 1,000 different variables. It requires a lot of visibility and a lot of execution, and that's really where we are investing our time and effort. So it really involves everyone in the Company, from the front end, the terms, how we are interacting with customers, how we are performing on project execution, how we manage the inventory, how we do billing. So we are just -- I had quite a good team in Healthcare running this process and it's just a highly mechanical deep dive into seeing the moving pieces, many, many moving pieces. The other thing I would say, just for perspective. As I mentioned in the opening remarks that this is our number one focus. As we go into 2018 for our pay structure for the teams, our incentive structures for the team, as we said before, we had numerous incentives before. We have two in 2018. One of those is free cash flow. So the Company is focused and incentivized around cash flow.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Thanks, John,
Operator:
The next question is from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague:
Hi, thanks. Just two things. First, just back to the 2018 guide. So if I'm just understanding what I heard correctly, relative to the November outlook, where on an adjusted basis you are expecting Industrial profit to be up 2% to 7%, it does seem like it's tough to get to your guidance on that, right? So we take where we've exited 2017, mark it down $2 billion dollars or so for rev rec, and then grow that 2% to 7%. Doesn't seem like it gets you there. It seems like there's something below the line. I don't know what I am missing. Maybe you could give us a little color on what you actually think Industrial segment profit is going to be in 2018.
Jamie Miller:
Yes, Jeff, the thing I would probably point you to is that Power in the fourth quarter had a very tough quarter. And when you look at where we thought 2017 would land versus where it did, it was substantially lower there. Now, when you really deconstruct the fourth quarter for Power, there were really two or three main themes there. One of which is just sort of one-time adjustments and some non-repeat items. Another was the impact of market, as we saw aero units and AGPs lower than we expected. Another was really around operations and execution. And as Russell and the team have come in, first, the one-time items piece of it, which is about $850 million, about half of that was a charge for slow-moving and obsolete inventory that we took. We obviously don't expect that to repeat as we get into next year. The other piece of that $850 million was non-repeats from 2016. The market piece of it, we saw a tough market in the third and fourth quarter across both the aero business and AGPs. Now, we do expect that to levelize a bit more as we get into 2018 back up. We saw a second half here down. And then on the operations and execution, and Russell can give more color on both of these. Project cost overruns in PowerGen, Grid, and a little bit in Power Conversion. And then the transactional services piece of it, just with higher field costs and an unfavorable mix. Now second half of the year in 2017 was tougher on services. On all of these areas, I mean, Russell is putting some very important stabilization activity in place. And we expect to see that Power stabilize a bit more and be above 2017 as we get into the year. But Russell, maybe you want to give some color on that.
Russell Stokes:
That's right, Jamie. I mean, the market dynamic within the quarter was $550 million. Lower aero units at 3 and 17 versus 31 in fourth quarter of 2016. We had lower services upgrades, so that came in at 25 versus 62, down 37. And then there was softness in the market related to Power Conversion that we have been navigating throughout the year. Jamie is right. On execution, we continue to just do everything we need to run the business better. We dove deeply into projects and we are working through cost overruns and adjustments that we needed to take in those projects, as we were nearing the conclusion of a number of legacy contracts. Truing up costs with partners on deals that were underwritten back in the 2013, 2014, 2015 timeframe. Had critical milestones that we were able to hit. They gave us better confidence around what those real estimates are going to be. And feel that we can navigate through that better as we go forward with some of the disciplines and controls we are putting in place. Jamie talked about the transactional services element that was in there. So it continued to be softer than what we would like. But I mentioned that Scott and the team have done a really nice job of going out, looking at the field, finding all of our installed assets, and working to understand the outages associated with those assets in the field. Back in October, we had visibility to only 28% of those outages. We actually can see 70% of those now, which is why we think that versus the 2017 run rate, there is a $1 billion, $2 billion opportunity for us to be able to go chase. And even with those pressures, we did have good cost performance at $230 million of favorable cost in the quarter.
Jamie Miller:
You know, Jeff, one other thing I would just clarify. Just to be clear, what you had modeled for 2018 is probably roughly similar to what you ought to be modeling now. The thing that changed was 2017, not the 2018 element of the November 13.
John Flannery:
And Jeff, one other thing I would add. Again, we ran obviously a number of scenarios for each business. I would just point out, again -- I will talk about Power in a second. But very strong outlooks in Healthcare and Aviation. Those businesses are really performing well. And I would say when you look at Power, it's obviously the focus point of this whole discussion. This is a very important franchise. It's going through a very difficult period, but we still have a strong franchise here. We have 50% share in the high-end technology. We have got a large installed base; a third of the world's electricity. So there is plenty to work with. It's clearly the new unit market is soft. But as we look -- all the analyses we do show a 0 to 2% ongoing growth in the coming decades for electricity from gas power. So there's opportunity in this business in the franchise itself. And as Russell laid out, there is basically four things to do to get that on track in terms of rightsizing the manufacturing footprint, working the cash and the inventory and the project execution, maximize the value of that installed base, as he walked through. That is still a very valuable asset. And then lastly, improving really the management capability and bandwidth and processes. And Russell is all over that. We have made obviously a lot of changes in the management structure of that business. So it’s a lot of work. We said ‘17 issues would carry into ‘18 in Power. But it is still a good franchise and an important business and we’re going to make the most of that.
Operator:
The next question is from Steven Winoker with UBS.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks. Good morning, all. John and Jamie, could you maybe frame -- help us frame the downside a little bit here? On the liability side and reserving, maybe just what do you do on WMC in the quarter? How do you see changes there or in some of the other disclosed liabilities that we've seen quarter by quarter? And just give assistance for that level of reserving that you are operating and kind of the window of sensitivities around it.
Jamie Miller:
So Steve, I will talk you through GE Capital and just WMC and other things we monitor there. We've got WMC and we have got some other trailing obligations around GE Capital, some of which are litigation-related, some of which are just indemnities from the assets we sold. Ex-WMC, we hold reserves on that of about $700 million. That will play out over the next year or two. I think that those reserves are in the right place. When you look at WMC itself, there is a couple of components here. One is the reps and warranties lawsuits that we've disclosed in the past. We think we are fully reserved there at $400 million. The FIRREA investigation that's being conducted by the DOJ, that was also -- I think we got pretty good disclosure out there on that as well. We have not yet had substantive discussions with the Justice Department. We are early in the process there, so I really don't want to speculate on that one.
Steven Winoker:
And you didn't raise that out all in the quarter? The reserves?
Jamie Miller:
No, we didn't.
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin:
Hi, guys. Good morning.
John Flannery:
Morning.
Jamie Miller:
Morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. Just a question in terms of the impact of oil price on your business. And I think the question is twofold. I would've expected sort of better Water dynamic at Baker Hughes. But then also looking at your exposure to energy-rich regions, what does that do for your ability to collect better in 2018?
Jamie Miller:
So first on Baker Hughes, they have a call at 9:30 where Lorenzo and Brian will take you through that. When you look at the oil-rich regions, I'd say a couple of things from a finance perspective. One is we did see some order uptick across some of our businesses in those regions in the fourth quarter. In terms of the ability to collect and really work through some of the other more operational issues, I think this can be a favorable thing for us in ‘18. In Oil & Gas in particular, it's really a longer-cycle business here. So when you think about the recovery, while we are starting to see some activity in oilfield services, turbo machinery solutions, things like that over time should benefit.
Andrew Obin:
Just a follow-up if I can. What about divestitures? How does that figure in your EPS outlook?
Jamie Miller:
When you look at the divestitures -- so we moved some of those to held for sale this quarter. We have got about -- well, we've got a handful of business and product sales, smaller ones, that are in the process right now. The value and proceeds estimate on that right now is in the $4 billion to $5 billion range based on today. There should be no impact to 2018 for free cash flow and EPS, just based on timing of when we see that come through. You know about Baker Hughes and Transport and IS. Everything else that we are working through, it's probably about $500 million of free cash flow. But that's really more of a ‘19 thing.
John Flannery:
Andrew, I would just add just in terms of the activity level around those smaller dispositions that good level of interested, very active, pricing looks good. So we like what we've seen so far on that.
Operator:
Our next question is from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
John Flannery:
Hey, Scott.
Jamie Miller:
Morning.
Scott Davis:
If I was to look at one part of our model that we're probably a little bit insecure of, I should say, it's just around price in Power. And you're taking costs out, but are you comfortable at least that deflation in Power -- and I don't just mean on the OE side. I think we've seen that for 15 years. But on the service side, are you comfortable that that has stopped as the rate of change? Or maybe just Russell could fill us in on where we stand there. Thanks.
Russell Stokes:
Yes, so we continue to work through the assessments on what's happening in the transactional side of the business. So we've been paying attention, I would say, to it holistically around total margin performance. There is an element of price that we have acknowledged that we felt up to now, just given that we did not have the level of attention that we should have had on that portion of the business. We also acknowledged in the past cost overruns around some of the execution that had taken place as well. I feel with the exercise that Scott and the team that is working through that we ought to be able to see things stabilize. And actually look at how we provide a better set of product offerings to be able to support the transactional fleet as we go forward. But that is still a work in progress.
Scott Davis:
So Russell, I mean, one of the things that -- your competitors have always said that GE is a little bit tough on price. And maybe you guys had made some decisions in the past that weren't economic. Is that something that has materially changed under your watch? You are going into projects and contracts with more discipline?
Russell Stokes:
So across the board, we are implementing much more disciplined underwriting practices. There is a new strike zone governance process that we are managing with myself and our CFO as well on the different levels of deals that we are willing to go do from a price, terms and cash performance. The process is definite tighter than I would say than it was in the past. And we believe that that is going to be good for us in the long-term.
Operator:
Our next question is from Gautam Khanna with Cowen and Company.
Gautam Khanna:
Yes, I was wondering if you could just expand on the nature and the scope of the SEC investigation into contract assets, and whether - how far along you are in that interval review of the fidelity of that balance right now?
Jamie Miller:
Sure. I can comment on that one. So this is a space, CSAs, that I've spent a ton of time on over the years. This is something that at the Company level we have really exhaustively reviewed it. We've got a deep finance team, a deep controllership team. And as the SEC has started to take a look at this, I would tell you its very early days. As I have come into the role, I mean, just like John, I am going through a very deep review on pretty much everything in finance. Look, there is nothing here that I am overly concerned about. But look, if I see something, we will deal with it. But I don't see anything at this point.
Gautam Khanna:
And to your point, it's early days. Just to follow up --
Jamie Miller:
Early days in the process with the SEC, yes.
Gautam Khanna:
Okay. And to follow up on an earlier question on GE Capital and potential liabilities not reserved for. I'm just curious -- to the extent that there is any exposure, maybe it's on some of the residual WMC or what have you, where is it? Where would we possibly have some exposure that maybe isn't fully reserved for now. Just because the charge that you talked about last week that was going to hit us in Q4 and did was bigger than we expected. I'm just curious -- you've kind of gone through everything or have you? I mean, are we still in the discovery mode of some of the liabilities from years back that could actually bite us?
Jamie Miller:
I think we've got a good inventory of what we see. And as we've gone through this, I think our reserves are appropriately set. I think what will play out over the next year or two is really the work with FIRREA and the Department of Justice. And look, as that plays out, we will see where that goes. If we need to take additional actions in GE Capital, we will take them. But it's really too early to speculate at this point on how that could land.
Operator:
Our next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
John Flannery:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Jamie, I wanted to ask you a question. Early, you made reference to the better cash flow in 4Q partly being related to some timing. It sounded like some receivables timing in 4Q. So I'm just curious. As it relates to the 1Q cash flow number -- last year, I think you guys were down about $2 billion to $2.5 billion of free cash flow. Is the expectation then for 1Q that it should be then worse than it was last year partly because of this timing?
Jamie Miller:
I don't expect it to be worse than last year. I actually expect it to be better than last year. I think what you are going to see, though, is a bit of a push around progress timing. If you remember, we were really hit by progress coming into 2017 in the Renewables business. And that should be a non-repeat going into ‘18. So that should be helpful to us. Having said that, with the timing of progress between fourth quarter ‘17, first quarter of ‘18 that we saw with Power and Aviation, that's going to swing back around. So I do expect it to be negative, but not nearly as bad as last year.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.
John Flannery:
Just beyond that, that whole cash thing. Obviously, with orders and deposits and things, those things move around in a discrete manner. What we're really focused on is driving the machine behind our inventories and our supply chains and our commercial terms. So these will move around a little bit based on discrete orders. But what we are really tracking is how are we doing on managing the overall machine, if you will.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. And John, on that point, there's been no change then to the $2 billion or so in working capital improvements that you are expecting in 2018?
Jamie Miller:
That's correct. In fact, I expect it should be slightly better than that.
Operator:
And our final question comes from Robert McCarthy with Stifel.
Robert McCarthy:
Good morning, everyone. The first question is just on the raise in the effective tax rate for modeling purposes in the out years for Industrial. How does that affect how you are thinking just conceptually about cash, CFOA, and Industrial free cash? How much of a potential headwind could that be in the out years?
Jamie Miller:
I think over the next several years, the impact of the transition tax should be quite small. We are modeling mid- to high-teens tax rate over the next couple of years, really as we've got credits and other losses and deductions that will continue to carry us through. As we get out into the 2020s, that rate will moderate into the low 20%s. In terms of the cash modeling, for the near term, we don't expect a significant shift in that profile.
Robert McCarthy:
But over the longer term, obviously, that's a structural headwind?
Jamie Miller:
Over the longer term, I think we have to see what our tax positioning is. Look, I think it's hard to speculate at this point three to four years out on that one.
Matt Cribbins:
Thank you, John. Before we wrap up, I would just like to thank everyone for joining today. Reminding that a replay of today's call will be available this afternoon on our investor website. John? To you.
John Flannery:
Great, Matt, thanks. I'd just wrap up by saying there is really three thoughts as I look at the quarter and then move ahead into 2018. One is, as we said, we are deeply focused on running every asset that we own in a more effective manner. So back to basics on costs, cash, capital allocation, people, project execution. And I think you saw signs of that in Q4. I'd call the green shoots on that in Q4, and that's really the core focus of the business into 2018. We did talk in November about focusing on Power, Aviation, and Healthcare. We really like the franchises we have in all three of those. I will do whatever it takes really to make sure that those businesses are positioned to flourish in the future, have the right resources, have the right investment flexibility. And we are looking at any option we need to think about in that context. And we are really thinking about not just how they flourish in 2018, but 5 years from now, 10 years from now, 20 years from now. What is the best outlook for those businesses that we can create for our customers, for our teams. And when we have that right, obviously, it will work for the shareholders. And then the last thing I really just want to say is to the best part -- I've got almost six months under my belt as CEO. The best part has been just watching our GE team up close. It's an incredibly passionate team about our businesses, about serving the customers, about each other. And I would say most importantly, in the context of 2017 into 2018, it's a deeply competitive team. And it has a will and a deep desire to be a winner. And so when I look at the overall picture for GE, I always come back to that. I always come back to the strength of the 300,000 employees and I would just say as we head into 2018 and go into battle in 2018 with that team and with the strength of the businesses, I'd just close saying I'm confident we can do this. So thanks for your time and we will see you in the future. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. Good day.
Executives:
Matt Cribbins - VP, Investor Communications John Flannery - Chairman and CEO Jeff Bornstein - Vice Chairman and CFO Jamie Miller - Incoming CFO
Analysts:
Steven Winoker - UBS Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Scott Davis - Melius Research LLC Andrew Obin - BofA Merrill Lynch Robert McCarthy - Stifel Nicolaus Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the General Electric Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. My name is Jason, and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matt Cribbins:
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to GE’s Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. With us today are our Chairman and CEO, John Flannery; GE Vice Chairman and CFO, Jeff Bornstein and incoming CFO, Jamie Miller. Before we start, I would like to remind you that our earnings release, presentation and supplemental have been available since earlier today on our website at www.ge.com/investor. Please note that some of the statements we are making today are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. And now, I’ll turn the call over to John Flannery.
John Flannery:
Okay, great. Thanks Matt. Good morning. Before we get into the results of the quarter, I want to give you an update on the review of the company we've been doing over the last 90 days. While the company has many area of strength, it's also clear from our current results that we need to make some major changes, with urgency and a depth of purpose. Our results are unacceptable to say the least. The first thing I'd say is the review of the company has been and continues to be exhaustive. The team and I performed deep dives on all aspects of the company and no stone has been left unturned. We are evaluating our businesses, processes, corporate, our culture, how decisions are made, how we think about goals accountability, how we incentivize people, how we prioritize investments in the segment and at the overall company level including global research, digital and additive. We've also reviewed our operating processes, our team, and capital allocation and how we communicate to investors. Everything is on the table and there have been no sacred cow. I'll give a more detail look at our investor meeting in November but at a higher level here the key things and actions you can expect in November. First, we are driving sweeping change and moving with speed and purpose. I am focusing heavily on the culture of the company. Our culture needs to be driven by mutual candor and intense execution, and the accountability that must come with that. We have announced changes to the team at the highest level to the company. We've made a series of senior level changes in our Power business. We announced last week that Ed Garden from Trian is joining the Board. Things will not stay the same at GE. In addition to changes in our culture and our team, I'll share more with you in November on our capital allocation methods, changes we are making to analytics and metrics, and process improvement. In particular, these changes are focused on improving the cash generation of the company. We have to manage the company for cash and profitability in addition to growth. We need to hold teams accountable for the results. I am also working with our Board on comprehensive changes to our compensation plan to better align the team with investors. Speaking of our team, I found that to be an area of broad strength overall. We have dedicated teams across the globe that customers can rely on to go the extra mile. Second, fundamentally we have a strong set of businesses and leadership position. We have some major challenges in our Power unit but performance in most of the other segments is strong. That said we have a substantial opportunity to improve cash and margins across the entire company. This is where I am focusing my time and effort. As a start, we are already implementing a plan to drive substantially in excess of $2 billion of cost out in 2018 compared to our previous target of $1 billion. We will have a much smaller, more focused corporate and we are rightsizing our businesses to face market realities and will be mindful of the need to balance aggressive focus on costs with critical investment and long-term growth initiatives. We will be much more disciplined at all levels of the company on capital allocation. Our NPI spend, P&E investment, working capital. I will also hold the team accountable for securing the returns that we can and we should achieve from our restructuring which I view as important investment in the future of our businesses. Much like I experienced in my healthcare days, I see this largely as a self help story. We can and we will and we must improve the cash flow and margins of the company. Third, I am conscious of the fact that size and scale drive complexity. The company has many strong franchises but a number of other businesses which drain investment and management resources without the prospect for a substantial reward. We will have a simpler, more focused portfolio. To date, we've identified $20 billion plus of assets that we will exit in the next one to two years. We are also reviewing potential further optionality with other assets in our portfolio. Each GE business is being measured against the set of rigorous, strategic and financial objective and the belief that we can add value to the businesses over time will serve as a central tenet in shaping GE's future portfolio. Doing these three things well, redefining our culture, a back to basic approach to running our businesses better and reducing our complexity, these things will return to us our ultimate purpose. Running a GE platform that is built for value creation for our owners. I will run the company for cash generation and performance better than peers. We have leadership positions in global infrastructure businesses where our scale and deep technology domain represents significant and harder and competitive advantages. We will continue to investment in digital and additive to drive upside. GE has always been a company that combines innovation and technology with process rigor and global reach to create powerful outcomes for customers and improves the lives of literally billions of people around the world. The questions of who we are and what our relevance to the world is, those are not the issues facing the company today. The questions of how we execute and what results we deliver, those are the issues we are addressing with utmost sense of urgency. Lastly, I know there have been questions about capital allocation and our commitment to the dividend. We manage the company for total shareholder return, balancing growth and the dividend payout. The dividend is a priority in our capital allocation framework and we understand its importance to our investor base. We are in the process of finalizing our 2018 framework and we will share that with you in November. We will be reviewing our outlook for 2017 and 2018 in terms of sources of cash and CFOA generation. We will do that with an appropriate balance of growth investment and dividend payout, and we will share our overall capital allocation framework with you in the November meeting. As I said at the outset, the results I am about to share with you are completely unacceptable. As I look forward, however, from where we are, I see a journey with significant upside driven by running our businesses better, leveraging the strength of the portfolio and unlocking value where it make sense. I am highly confident in our ability to execute on this. The bedrock of my confidence comes from the people of General Electric, many of whom are listening to this all. They are smart, passionate, tough, experienced and I can assure they are determined and united to restore our performance and operate with integrity, with accountability and with an unwavering sense of purpose. I am humbled to be their leader and excited about taking this journey together with them. In our 125 year history, GE has been known for combining technology and innovation with execution intensity to produce outstanding results for customers and for our owners. We will regain that trajectory and I look forward to sharing more with you in November when we get together in New York City. And now let me turn to our Q3 results. In terms of the third quarter, it goes without saying that this quarter was a very challenging one for us. At the highest level, we had strong performance in most segments that was more than offset by results in our Power and Oil and Gas businesses. This was especially true in our earnings and CFOA. EPS in the quarter was $0.29 down 9%. We had $0.21 of restructuring and other one time items, offset by a $0.21 gains in the sale of our water business. Organic revenue was down 1% and op profit was down 7%. In both cases this reflects good performance in most segments, offset by weakness in our Power business. Orders in the quarter of $29.8 billion were up 11% and flat organically. I'll walk you through the orders by business on the next page. Industrial segment revenue was $30 billion; this was up 10% reported and down 1% organically. Power was down 6% organically and Oil and Gas was down 7%. Excluding Power and Oil and Gas we saw 2% organic growth across the rest of our businesses. Industrial op profit was down 7% with Power down 51% and Oil and Gas down 35%. Aviation and Healthcare had very strong quarters, up 12% and 14% respectively. Industrial margins of 11.8% were down 220 basis points. Power and Oil and Gas were down substantially. All other businesses expanded margins. We are delivering on structural cost; we took out $500 million in the quarter bringing the total year-to-date to $1.2 billion. We've already exceeded our total year goal of $1 billion which will position us well for 2018. Industrial CFOA was $1.7 billion in the quarter and $2.1 billion adjusted for dividends received from Baker. Jeff will walk you through these dynamics. Next on to top line performance. Let me start with orders on the left. Orders of $29.8 billion were up 11% but flat organically after adjusting for Baker Hughes. Organically, equipment orders were down 10% and service orders were strong up 10%. The decline in equipment was driven by Power down 32% due to lower TM orders, lower extended scope and steam. Renewables were down 6% due to the non repeat of a large offshore deal last year, Merkur. However, we saw good growth in the onshore business up 36% on very strong international growth. Oil and Gas equipment orders were up 3x, up 58% organically and Transportation was up over 100% off of a low base. Aviation and Healthcare continue to have solid orders up 8%. We saw broad strength across our services portfolios. Power services orders were about flat and all other businesses were up. Aviation was particularly strong, up 13% with the spare rate up 21%. Renewable service order was up 22% on US re-powering demand and transportation service was up 44% on strong mining volume and transactional services. I am particularly pleased with the orders performance in digital this quarter. They achieved $1.4 billion of orders, up 50% with strength in Power of 23%, Transportation up 45%, Oil and Gas up 5x. Year-to-date, Digital orders are up 32%. We are getting real traction here with customers as we continue to focus our efforts on our core market. Revenue was down 1% organic including the effects of acquisitions and dispositions in FX. Year-to-date organic revenue is up 2%. Equipment revenue was down 9%, organic driven by Power down 6%, Aviation down 7% on lower engine shipment and Transportation down 44% on significantly lower logos Strength in services revenue was led by Aviation, Renewables re-power activity and Transportation. Okay, next on to execution. With respect to cost out, I am very pleased with our progress here. We are ahead of plan for the year and have a strong pipeline of ideas, many of which are being implemented as we speak. Structural cost of $5.7 billion in the quarter was down $500 million. Year-to-date structural cost is down $1.2 billion with $900 million of that in the segments and $300 million in corporate. And year-to-date in Power, cost is down $590 million and Aviation is down $200 million. As I mentioned, our current rollout for 2018 is an additional $2 billion plus of cost out with more to come. Industrial margins were 11.8% in the quarter, down 220 basis points. Excluding Oil and Gas margins are down 90 basis points. Our costs out actions are beginning to register. Ex power and water and oil and gas, all other businesses were up 250 basis points. Oil and Gas and Power margins were down about 700 basis points each. So the big picture on the quarter, strength in many segments in terms of orders, operating profit and margin rate but these strong performances were more than offset by Power and Oil and Gas. And now let me turn things to Jeff Bornstein and Jamie Miller. But before they start, I just want to note that Jeff has been a big leader in the company and an important partner to me as I have transitioned into the CEO role. Jamie is hitting the ground running and I know our finance function will be in good hands under her leadership. So with that over to you Jeff and Jamie.
Jeff Bornstein:
Thanks John. Before I go through the results for the quarter, I want to share with you why we are transitioning my role as a CFO to Jamie. Although we are proud of many of the important changes made over the last few years, including reducing corporate structure, adding additive, restructuring GE capital, exiting appliances, integrating Alstom and establishing Baker Hughes GE, our operating performance is not been where it should be. Most recently Power emerged as a real challenge in terms of volume, profitability and cash flow. I've talked a lot about accountability inside the company and that sense of accountability has to start with me. We are not living up to our own standards or those of investors and the buck stops at me. John and I made this decision together and although leaving the incredibly hard working and dedicated finance team and the company, it's the hardest thing I have ever done in my 20 years with GE. I know it's the right decision for the company, myself and my family. John is driving a lot of change in the company and its culture. And it's the right time to change. I am excited for John to share more with your in November on the progress and thinking we've undertaken. Jamie will be great in the role and will bring a unique perspective to the job and to the company. First, I'll update on cash. You'll see that the page is different than how we've historically presented. We also provided another metric this quarter given the close of BHGE deal in July which more accurately reflects the cash available for GE to use. Let me take a minute to walk you through the left side of the page. Our reported CFOA was $500 million in the quarter that represents GE cash flow including 100% of Baker Hughes CFOA. Next on GE capital, we did not receive a dividend in the quarter. As you know, we are in the process of performing an actuarial analysis of claims reserves and our insurance business. Until that review is being completed, we have deferred the decision to pay GE Capital dividends to GE. Our industrial CFOA was $1.7 billion in the quarter adjusted for $1.3 billion of US pension plan funding and deal taxes. This is down $1.2 billion from prior year. With BHGE on a dividend basis and excluding oil and gas CFOA, our industrial CFOA was $2.1 billion. On the right side, we provided some color on the Industrial CFOA dynamics including oil and gas for the quarter, versus our expectation our CFOA in the quarter was negatively impacted by two things. Lower than expected Power earnings and underperformance in working capital. Working capital was usage in the quarter of $1.3 billion principally driven by inventory receivable. This is worse than expectation primarily driven by lower than anticipated Power volume which was resulted in lower earnings and higher inventory on hand. We also had lower oil and gas collection versus planned. Contract assets were a use of $800 million in the quarter, of the $800 million, $300 million was from our equipment contract given the timing of our revenue recognition milestones which will catch up as we executed against this contract. The remaining $500 million is from our long-term service payments due to better cost performance in parts life primarily in Power and Transportation. All other operating cash flow in the quarter was $1.3 billion driven by two things. First, we had non cash expenses such as intangible amortization and pension that are adjusted out in this line. Second, we had a $500 million correction for the first half related to derivative hedge settlement that have been incorrectly cost applied in operating cash flow versus investment cash flow. Our first half CFOA was under reported by $500 million. We ended the quarter with $12.8 billion of cash on the balance sheet which includes $4.8 billion of cash in Baker Hughes GE. Our performance was below expectation in a quarter primarily driven by Power which is facing challenging market conditions. The balance of the segment performance was in line with expectations on cash. On consolidated results, 3Q revenues were $33.5 billion, up 40% with Industrial revenues of $31 billion, up 17%. The growth year-over-year was principally driven by the water gain and the Baker Hughes acquisition. As you can see on the right side of the page, industrial segment revenues were up 10% on a reported basis but down 1% organically. Industrial operating plus vertical EPS was $0.29, down 9% versus prior year driven substantially by industrial segment op profit down 10%. Gains from restructures had no net impact in the quarter as the water gain of $0.21 was offset by $0.08 restructuring and $0.13 of impairments which I will cover on the next page. That compared to $0.04 of net restructuring after gains in 3Q of 2016. Operating EPS was $0.26 in the quarter down $0.01 from 3Q, 2016. This incorporates other continuing GE Capital activity including excess debt headquarter runoff cost that I'll cover in more detail on the GE Capital page. Continuing EPS of $0.22 includes the impact of non operating pension and net EPS of $0.21 includes discontinued operations. Total disc ops impact was a charge of $105 million in the quarter. The GE tax rate was a negative 4% in the quarter driven by the low tax water gain. Excluding gains and restructuring, our tax rate was in the mid-teens. We currently expect the GE tax rate for the year in the low single digits including the effects of the low taxes on water. As a result, our fourth quarter rate is expected to be around zero. Adjusting for gains and restructuring, our total year tax rate is projected to be in the low to mid-teens. On the right side of the segment results, as I mentioned, Industrial segment revenue were up 10% on a reported basis down 1% organically. On a year-to-date basis, industrial segment revenues are up 2% organically. Industrial segment op profit was down 10% and industrial op profit which includes corporate was down 7%. The decline year-over-year was driven principally by Power and oil and gas while the other segments and corporate were up strongly plus 23% combined. I'll cover the individual segment dynamics separately. Next on one time items, as I said we had $0.08 of charges related to industrial restructuring and other items. $0.06 of that related to GE activity and $0.02 related to Baker Hughes integration and synergy investment. In total, restructuring and other items were $1 billion before tax with restructuring charges totaling about $700 million pretax and BD M&A charges of approximately $300 million related to Baker Hughes, the LM acquisition and the water disposition. The restructuring charges were higher than we originally planned driven by accelerated restructuring actions we taken at corporate. We also had two impairments in the quarters. As you know, during the third quarter we performed our annual impairment test of goodwill for all reporting units. Based on the results of our testing, the fair values of each of the GE reporting units exceeded their carrying value except for power conversion reporting unit within the Power segment. The primary factors contributing to reduction in fair value of this reporting unit were extended down turns in marine and oil and gas markets increased pricing pressures in the low margin renewable market and the late introduction of new technologies and products. As a result of the analysis, we've recognized the non cash goodwill impairment of $947 million in the quarter to write down the carrying values of power conversions goodwill to its implied fair value. We also recorded $315 million asset impairment related to our power plant investment in 2010 to launch the older steam-cooled H turbine, given the over capacity in the California market, we booked an impairment driven by anticipated exit of the asset, together those impairment sold $0.13. We sold our water business on September 30 and recorded corresponding gain of $0.21. At the bottom of the chart you can see year-to-date summary. Through the third quarter we recorded $0.22 of restructuring and other charges, $0.13 of impairments and $0.21 of gains for a net charge of $0.14. Jamie will take you through an outlook for the fourth quarter restructuring in a few pages. Next, I'll cover the segments. I'll start with Power which now represents the combined power and energy connection segments. We have severely disappointed with the result of power and are taking actions to position the business going forward. This includes a refocus on the basics, significant additional cost out plans and changes to management including announcing a new Head of Power Services this week. The business has been undergoing market changes and we haven't changed fast enough with it. The market demand for heavy duty gas turbines declined to 40 gigawatt this year down from 46 gigawatt last year. The structure of the service market has also changed as we discuss on the second quarter conference call driven by renewables fleet penetration for AGP, lower capacity payments, utilization and outages. However, the decline we saw in our services business in the third quarter was much sharper than the decrease in the first half. We expect these issues to persist to the fourth quarter and into 2018. Let me give you some color on the performance of the business during the quarter. Year-over-year Power revenue were down 4% with profit down 51%. Let me start by walking through the dynamics contributing to the significant negative leverage driving margin income pressure of 700 basis points. There are really three drives. First, the decline in the market year-over-year principally in our service business. Aero derivatives and power conversion. Within services, we had less AGPs down 54% and lower outages. Outages were down 18% in the third quarter versus down 12% in the first half, a 50% acceleration in decline. Aero derivative unit were down 32 versus the third quarter of last year and far off our expectation in the quarter. Second, poor execution resulting in project delays and cost to quality items. In addition, we had to establish a bad debt reserve for our Venezuelan receivable. Third, the mix effect of having lower volume and high margin in aero and service businesses and higher volume in low margin grid and balance of plant resulted in a substantial margin headwind. Now let me talk about performance relative to our expectations. Power was sharply lower than we expected. Most of that miss was driven by aero and services volume. We had expected to shift twice as many aero units in the quarter but due to customer financing needs and geographic deal complexity, these transactions did not close. Services were also below expectations. We shift 13 AGPs versus our plan of 39 coming into the quarter. This miss was driven by a forecast that did not reflect lower customer demand from higher fleet penetration and longer customer paybacks and several large deals that were delayed moving into 2018. Outages and other transactional services were also below plan. As a result, Power services in total likely be down about 20% for the year. Let me give you also some color on orders and revenue in the quarter. Orders for Power were $8.3 billion, down 18%. Equipment orders were down 32% with Power down 37% and Energy connections down 25%. Power is lower on fewer area down 75% a 9 units versus 36 units was last year and lower balance of plant down 83% and no repeatable large order in power for $750 million last year. Gas turbine unit orders totaled 15 versus 11 a year ago including 3 aged units. Service order was up 1% and $4.4 billion. Energy connections were down 5% and Power is up 1%. AGPs were 14 units versus 24 a year go. Revenues of $8.7 billion were down 4%. Equipment revenues were down 3% on lower aero derivative with units down 78%, 9 versus 41 last year. Gas turbine shipments were down 8, 22 versus 30 a year ago. This was offset partially by higher HRSGs and balance of plant which grew 63%. H unit shipments were 2 versus 7 last year. We expect to shift 23 H units this year with all remaining fourth quarter eight shipments in backlog. Service revenues of $4.3 billion were down 4% with the energy connections up 6% and power down 5%. Power services were down on lower AGPs down 54% at 13 versus 28 units last year and outages were down 18%. Our CSA cum adjustments in the quarter were $323 million, down from last year's $366 million. The new guidance we have for the total year includes an outlook for Power in the fourth quarter that should de-risk our volume assumptions. We are now forecasting AGPs at 80 to 90 for the total year down from the previous 155 to 165 forecast. We've taken down our total year aero forecast from 96 units to 50 to 55 units in shipments. We also expect outage and other transactional service to be lower than planned in the fourth quarter. And as I mentioned before, service in total will likely to be down about 20% for the year. Gas turbine orders and shipments remain on track. So all in a very disappointing quarter and outlook for 2017. But we've new leaders in place in the business with the focus on cost out, cash and pragmatic views of the market. We've a top 2018 and front risk but we are optimistic about the business beyond that. We will discuss more with you on November 13. Next is Renewables. Renewable energy orders were $3 billion, down 1% reported and down 7% organic, driven by no repeat of large Merkur order last year in our offshore business of $634 million. Onshore wind orders were strong at $2.6 billion, up 33%. Onshore equipment orders of $1.9 billion or up 36% on strong international wins in Australia, Thailand and Serbia. Partly offsetting strong international activity US orders were down 41% on a tough comparison to PTC Safe Harbor orders last year. The total unit ordered was 693 up 17%, with megawatts up 40% versus last year. Onshore service orders of $706 million were higher by 27% on continued strength in US re-power orders. Hydro orders of $198 million were down 50% and offshore were down substantially with no repeat of the Merkur as I discussed previously. LM blade orders totaled $147 million in the quarter. Revenue grew 5% reported and was down 2% organic. Onshore win was down 1% offset by service up 3x on re-power volume. Hydro revenues grew 30%; LM revenues totaled $161 million in the quarter. Operating profit of $257 million was up 27% and up 13% organically driven by US r-powering volume, better product cost partially offset by price. Margin rates improved to 150 basis points with LM and expanded 110 basis points organically. Next on Aviation. Global passenger RPKs grew 7.9% August year-to-date with strong growth both domestically and internationally. Air freight volumes have been very strong as well, going 10.5% August year-to-date. Low practice globally remains well above 80%. Orders in the quarter totaled $6.9 billion, up 12%. Equipment orders grew 8%. Commercial engine orders were flat at $1.4 billion on higher CFM and GE 90 offset by lower LEAP at GEnx orders. These orders did not include any of the Paris Air Show announcements. Avio grew equipment orders 46% in the quarter. The military equipment orders were up 10% including $92 million of FO14 orders from the navy. Service orders grew 13% with commercial services growing 11% on spares growth of 21% and $23.2 million a day. And military services up 56% driven by orders for advanced combat engine and advanced helicopter programs. Revenues in the quarter grew 8% to $6.8 billion. Equipment revenue was down 5% on lower commercial engine shipments of 641 engines versus 654 with higher LEAP deliveries largely offsetting fewer legacy engines. The business shift 111 LEAP engines including 23 Boeing 1B retrofitted engines associated with LPD disc issue from earlier in the year. Military equipment revenues were down 20%. Services revenue grew 18% on higher commercial spares up 21% to $23.2 million a day, and another stronger of military up 33% largely driven by spare demand. Operating profit in the quarter of $1.7 billion was up 12% primarily driven by volume, structural cost productivity and value gap partially offset by margin pressure from higher LEAP shipments. Margins expanded 90 basis points in the third quarter. Next is Healthcare. Healthcare orders of $5.1 billion were up 6% versus last year. Geographically organic orders were up 4% in the US, 8% in Europe and emerging markets grew 11% driven by China which was up 20%. On a product basis, healthcare system orders grew 5% driven by ultrasound high by 11% and imaging up 8% with good performance in the mammography and CT. Life sciences continued strong performance growing 14% driven by bioprocess growth of 17% and core imaging up 9%. Revenues in the quarter of $4.7 billion grew 5% with healthcare systems higher by 4% and life sciences up 10%. Operating profit was up 14% including a small gain on a disposition of non strategic operation in our lifesciences business. Excluding the gain, our profit grew 8% driven by volume and productivity partially offset by price and program investments. Margins expanded 140 basis points reported and 50 basis points organically. Next on Oil and Gas. Baker Hughes GE, as you know, we closed the deal on July 3. The new company positions BHGE well for the broad structure of services the customers have been asking for and we believe the timing of the deal was right for both Baker and GE shareholders. The team is up and running with the integration and making significant progress. The synergy pipeline remains strong and the team continues to receive positive feedback from customers and employees. BHGE release its financial results this morning at 6.45 and the Lorenzo his team will hold their earnings call immediately following the GE earnings call today. We owned 62.5% of BHGE which means we consolidated 100% of their orders, revenues and cash flow from operating activities. However, the segment operating profit and net income are net of 37.5% minority interest attributable to Baker Hughes Class A shareholder. Also the operating profit we report for oil and gas is adjusted for GE reporting conventions such as excluding restructuring and BD charges. Therefore our 62.5% of profit will therefore what the BHGE shows as operating income. We've included in the supplemental presentation a walk from BHGE reported results to what we show is segment our profit. The business now has four reporting segments. Oil field services which is predominantly legacy Baker Hughes products, turbo machinery and process solutions which is the GE turbo machinery and down stream businesses, oil and field equipment comprise of GE subsea and drilling and pressure control and digital solutions which is a combination of GE digital solutions plus Baker Hughes pipeline solutions business. To provide perspective of how on the going business performed, I'll provide concurrence to the combined business based on financial as if the merger had taken place on 1/1/2016. The supplemental financial information is included in the 8-K that BHGE issues on September 6. For reference, I would give you the total organic orders and revenue comparisons as well. These would be results of our legacy oil and gas business. Orders over $5.7 billion up 130% reported and up 27% organically. On a combined business basis, orders were up 18%. All segments were up in the quarter with oil field equipment up 45% and digital solutions up 43%. Revenues were up 81% reported and down 7% organically. On a pro forma basis, revenues were flat. Oil field services were up 9% and turbo machinery was 2% more than offset by oil field equipment down 28% and digital solutions down 2%. Segment operating profit was $231 million, down 35% reported and down about 70% in our legacy oil and gas business, primarily driven by longer cycle oil field equipment business. As I mentioned earlier, this represents GE share of Baker Hughes GE earnings adjusted for restructuring and reporting differences between GE and Baker Hughes GE. Next is current and lighting. Orders for current were $234 million in the quarter, down 29% on a non repeat of large financial services company retrofit and run off our traditional lighting products. Revenues of $483 million were down 16%, driven by market and product exits. Operating profit was $23 million versus the loss of $15 million in the third quarter of last year. We are completing the build out of the current business and the restructuring of our legacy business and products. Finally I'll cover GE Capital. The verticals were $300 million in the quarter, down 36% from prior year driven primarily by impairments associated with two investments in energy financial services and our annual impairment review of GECAS. GECAS annual impairments totaled about $50 million primarily driven by 4777 aircraft. Other continuing operations showing $275 million loss in the quarter driven by $318 million of excess interest expense, $43 million of run off operating expenses and restructuring costs, $36 million of preferred equity cost partly offset by gains from asset sales. In total, other continuing operations were $166 million better than last year driven by lower excess interest and lower headquarter restructuring cost. GE Capital ended the quarter with $155 billion of assets including $33 billion of liquidity, down $6 billion from the second quarter. As I mentioned on our last earnings call, we've recently observed elevated claims experience for a portion of the long-term care book at GE Capital's legacy insurance business which represents $12 billion or roughly 50% of our insurance reserve. As a result, we began a comprehensive review in the third quarter of premium deficiency assumptions that are used in the annual claim reserve adequacy test. This is a very complex exercise and the team is making good progress. We expect to complete this process by the end of the year. Until the review is being completed we've deferred the decision to pay approximately $3 billion of additional GE Capital of dividend. Year-to-date GE Capital has paid $4 billion of dividends to GE. Lastly, in other continuing operations we continue to expect incremental tax benefits in the fourth quarter associated with the recovering of portion of the exit plan tax cost we incurred when we announced the restructuring. Next, I'll hand it over to Jamie to cover transportation.
Jamie Miller :
Good morning. Hi, this is Jamie Miller. I am glad to be here and I am looking forward to working with all of you. I thought I take you through Transportation's results this morning but before I do that just a little bit of background on me. I actually spent most of my career outside of GE. I was a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers, I led Investor Relations in much of finance at WellPoint now Anthem, and I joined GE nine years ago as GE's Chief Accounting Office. Since then I have been our Chief Information Officer and most recently the CEO of GE Transportation. And most of my career is in finance and I know GE and its businesses very, very well. I am happy to be back at corporate. I am happy to be working with John and really helping to revaluate and set a new course of GE. Picking up on Transportation, North American car load volume was up 3.8% in the quarter primarily driven by inter motor car load of 6.6% and commodity car loads of 1.1%. Part locomotives ended the quarter at about 4,000 units and we expect the market for new locomotives will continue to remain challenging. Orders of $1.72 million were up 54% on easy comparison primarily driven by strong volume and services both mining and locomotive transactional services. Backlog at the end of the quarter sits at $14.5 billion. Services backlog was impacted in the quarter by $3.1 billion by a termination notice received from a large North American customer. This contract covers 800 locomotives most of which are currently in service. And the termination while it had no financial impact on the quarter, we do expect to finalize our new service arrangement in the near future. And in the meantime we continue to service the unit. Revenues of $1.74 million were down 14% with op profit down 11%. This was driven by lower locomotive shipments, partially offset by services volumes and cost productivity. And for the year the business will deliver about 450 locomotives. Our profit will be down double digits. Total North American shipments will be down 73% this year with international up 46%. The team has really executed well during a difficult market decline really by focusing on cost out. We've taken 20% of structural cost out over two years. Resizing and relocating the business operations while winning international orders. On September 30, we signed our agreement with Egyptian National Railways worth $575 million for 100 locos and services. That will be recognized as an order in the fourth quarter. And lastly our 1,000 locomotive contracts in India have been in the press recently. We had several meetings with the Indian government and we are confident that the agreement is moving forward as planned. The first locomotive actually arrived on the ground in India last week and we'll ship two locomotives in the fourth quarter and then about 75 to 100 units per year after that. So a little bit on my focus areas in the next few weeks. I have been in Boston for about 10 days now and first John mentioned his company review. I am deeply engaged in that process with John and the team. We've got great franchise businesses but we are really focused on how do we really simplify the company and create the right clarity and contract for value creation. We need to make the company far less complex and we've got to bring a much deeper level of operating rigor. I am also reevaluating our metrics and reporting. And I'll take you through that in more detail on November 13 but as some examples, we will be moving off of the industrial and vertical's EPS reporting. We will conform the GE definition to industry standard on free cash flow and we are really looking at how we can report in a much cleaner way, just a much simpler presentation of what you see. I'd kind of call it back to the basics approach. Consistency and transparency but with data that you can digest. And I want your feedback here but that's the target. On the right hand side of the page, we layout some thoughts on the rest of 2017. As Jeff mentioned, Power has seen more difficult market conditions that we planned. With a sharper decline in services in the third quarter and we expect those conditions and relative performance to continue as we move into the fourth quarter. The team has taken a fairly pragmatic view of the outlook. They are focused on cost out and really rightsizing the business. On Aviation, the business performance was stronger in the third quarter than we expected as commercial spares continue to grow strong double digit versus high single digits estimate. In the fourth quarter, we expect margin rates to be pressured from higher LEAP shipments and we expect 150 plus more than last year in LEAP shipments and expect to see moderating spares growth. But based on current year-to-date performance, we expect margin rates will be positive for the total year. Oil and Gas and Transportation end markets continued to be challenging and we expect Healthcare performance to be consistent with third quarter year-to-date with low to mid single digit top line growth, with stronger growth in our profit and continuing margin rate expansion. This business is executing well on simplifying the structure and reducing cost in both product and manufacturing, while investing in the next generation of digital products and solutions. At GE Capital, Jeff mentioned that we expect our insurance actuarial review to be concluded in the fourth quarter. As many of you may know this book of business includes long-term carry insurance which can be quite difficult to analyze and reset the reserve. Jeff mentioned that decision to hold off on the GE Capital additional dividends for the third and fourth quarters until that analysis is finalized. In addition, in GE Capital other continuing operations for the fourth quarter, we expect incremental tax benefits associated with recovering a portion that GE Capital exit plan tax cost we incurred and restructuring charges should be about $0.10 or maybe a bit more in the fourth quarter, up from prior guidance of $0.05. The industrial solution sales are now expected to close mid 2018. On cash flow, we now expect industrial cash flow for the year to be about $7 billion and that's what Baker Hughes GE reported on a dividend basis post transaction. This is well below the $12 billion estimate we provided at the second quarter earnings and it's principally driven by three businesses. Power is the biggest driver on lower volume, higher inventory and the timing of payments on long-term equipment contracts. Oil and Gas is about $1 billion off about half of that being driven by lower volume and collections in the first half and the rest driven by our methodology change to show them on the dividend basis for the second half of the year. In Renewables, is also about $500 million off on lower than expected volume impacting inventory and progress collection. So lastly as John and I go deep on the company and the 2018 framework, there also maybe held for sale charges in the fourth quarter related to the portfolio review. So we will discuss all of that in 2018 at John's investor outlook meeting on November 13.
John Flannery:
Thanks Jamie. I am going to wrap with the 2017 framework. For earnings, our estimate for industrial and vertical EPS is $1.05 to $1.10. This excludes any potential insurance adjustments or charges for asset held for sale that Jamie just mentioned. The key drivers versus or $1.60 framework of the following things. One, Power down significantly on lower services earnings and lower aero units. Second is higher restructuring and other charges over $0.45 for the year including the power conversion goodwill charge? And third lower earnings from Baker Hughes and plant and lastly lower buyback than we originally planed. As Jamie mentioned, cash will be approximately $7 billion for the year. Power alone will be lower than expected by $3 billion on lower earnings and higher inventory. Oil and Gas and Renewables were also come in lower than our plan. We expect substantially higher cash generation in 2018 driven by lower structural headwinds, things like tax and restructuring charges. A rigorous cost out plan and a substantial improvement in working capital. That said, obviously $7 billion of cash is significantly lower than the guidance and this performance is simply not acceptable. There needs to be real change and you should know that this team is committed to that. I am confident that we understand the issues and know the path forward. I look forward to going through our company outlook with you on November 13. And with that Matt I'll turn it back over to you.
Matt Cribbins:
Thanks John. We’ve got lot to cover. With that operator let's open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Steven Winoker from UBS.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks. Good morning, John, Jeff, Matt. Welcome to the new role, Jamie. John and Jeff, I'm sure investors appreciate the acknowledgment that 3Q showed unacceptable results. And I know you quickly mentioned in your upfront remarks, but I really have to start with sustainability of the dividend. Right now we're talking about $8 billion dividend, which gets me to something like an 88% payout ratio this year at the high end of guidance. And then more importantly on cash flow, we're talking about something like $7 billion of CFOA, as you mentioned, before CapEx of I think about $4 billion; which leads me to only about $3 billion of free cash flow before any GE Capital dividend, which you've now postponed due to the insurance actuarial review. So how is that level of dividend sustainable without jeopardizing the future growth of the company? And can you give us some sense of what you see as a sustainable payout ratio, may be something closer to 40% to 50%?
John Flannery:
Steve, this is John here. Just a few things I'd say on dividend. First and foremost we still have some moving pieces in motion and we'll bring this altogether for you in November as we said earlier. I just go back from there to few thoughts. One is philosophy, managing for total shareholder return so there does need to be a balance of investing in growth organic and inorganic growth and the dividend payout. So it's a philosophy expect a balance. We will present this framework in November as we complete the 2017 and 2018 processes, serious processes we need to through as a team. The last thing I'd say is just as a frame of reference. The 2017 number of $7 billion cash position, cash flow is a not zip code we are going to remain in. We expect improvement in that cash flow substantially in 2018. There are some structural issues like tax and restructuring charges that will not recur, $2 billion of cost out would be cash, and it would be improvement in working capital. But bottom line I'd say total shareholder return will come back to you in November with the final assessment. I understand your question and we don't plan to stay at $7 billion cash flow generation number.
Jamie Miller:
Steve, I'd just add to that. When you really think about 2017 to 2018 comparison, John mentioned first sort of the structural headwinds in 2017 I don't repeat. There is one time tax cost in Power of about $1 billion. We've got higher cash cost for restructuring at 2017. And we also had the PTC dynamics and the progress burn on renewable that we won't see again in 2018 so the structural piece of this is about $2 billion in 2017. When you think about 2018, we are going to get the benefit of more cost out, John talked about that right upfront and those actions have been taken throughout this year and will accelerate as we go into next year. We are also going to see some real working capital improvement. You know cash flow was hit this year by working capital burn. As we go into the next year that's really going to flip as we burned down that excess inventory build in both Power and Renewables. On a free cash flow front, we will have lower CapEx and software spend next year. And so there is headwinds here and I think you are going to -- you've seen that in the discussion earlier and I am sure we'll talk a little bit more about power, power, transportation and few others but the tailwind both the structural and the operational should really more than offset that as we get into 2018.
Jeff Bornstein:
That's great, Jamie. I'll just add in the end here is we came out of the quarter with $8 billion of cash, $12.8 billion with Baker Hughes. We expect to go out of the year with about $8 billion of GE cash plus Baker Hughes. So and that's after we pay the dividend here in October and after we deal with the GE company maturity here in the fourth quarter of about $4 billion.
Steven Winoker:
Right. So that covers it for this year, right, Jeff, then?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. So as a follow-up, John, I'd like to ask about this notion -- and I know you are going to go into more detail in November -- but just to start to think at a higher level of when GE earnings and cash flow hits when investors can think about as a trough, and by how much. When you start growing again, particularly in light of power's performance? And what I expect will be much larger restructuring actions taken and you've talked about beyond the $1.3 billion in fourth quarter. So, at this point of -- you're talking about 2018 having a lot of benefits that 2017 doesn't have. But how should investors get some certainty about when they can think that GE is in trough?
John Flannery:
So, listen, I'd say -- I'd characterize this and think of 2018 as a reset year. As you know from the outset of the call, we have a lot of businesses performing well. We have significant issues in power, those will persist into 2018 and there are a lot of structural actions we need to take as a company. Cost out actions, capital allocation actions. Those will play out I'd say during 2018 and I'd look that as a reset year and a foundation for growth in cash and earnings and margins going forward into 2019 and beyond.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Hey, good morning, guys. I just wanted to follow up on Steve's question on power. When we step back and look at the entire business, obviously you've taken a reset here in guidance. And when you look at the business in terms of AGPs, aero units, just the total services, we know you don't want to give us specifics on 2018 yet, and you've already talked about expecting a tough 2018. But do many -- or really any of these shipments move into 2018? And how much cost out can -- how much can cost out help you stabilizes the business in 2018 and beyond?
Jeff Bornstein :
Yes. I'll start. So as you would imagine we essentially have a team at Power and they are going very deep not just on structurally what's going on services and how we think about on a go forward basis. But also the structure, the cost structure of power itself. This is something we John and I have been on for last four five months. We don't have a cost structure that reflects the market that they are competing in. And we need to get out and they are deeply, deeply engaged and laying that out for 2018. That is critically important to getting the business stabilized and moving forward. I think one of the things they are trying to do is over the last three or four years I would say the amount of convertible short term volume that the business with whether it's AGPs or aero units et cetera has grown over time. And one of the things we are trying to do is get the business stabilized on what is their pragmatic look at volume not just in the fourth quarter but for 2018 that sets the business up for the long term. And I think that that's what the team is pulling together. They and John will share with you in November when they stand up. But I think we are focused on all the things you would expect us to be focused on power and team is really digging in.
John Flannery:
Andy, just one other thing I'd add to that. We spend a lot of time in power. I have been there several times already. We had a lot of time with the teams. When I look at that business in that situation first overall I really put it into three basic thoughts. One is the macro situation. Two is our franchise and three is how we execute and how we run the business. The macro situation is challenged, it's a very dynamic industry, there is lot of disruption especially in North America, over capacity, utilization, and you guys all know the issues. So there is a lot going on in the industry but I think even on a number of scenarios that look at, there is going to be some growth 2%,3%, 1% there is a range of forecast of the electricity generation coming from gas power over the next 10 years. So you've got emerging market et cetera. So it's a challenged macro environment for sure. But there is a base there. Second is our position. This gets to the notion. We have strong franchises. We've got leading technology. We've got 50% share in H class, large and installed base 30% of the world's electricity of the machine. So macro is tough, franchise is really quite solid, the execution has been the issue here. As Jeff said, we just fundamentally did not see the change in the market and we kept an open throughout opposition if you will and did not take enough cost out quickly and we've been left with inventory that goes overly optimistic. So as I step back and look at from where we are today, Russell, the team, they really digging into the business. I see a lot of opportunity move forward in terms of cost out, margin rate et cetera. So it's an inherently good franchise in a tough market and we can run this better.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Credit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, thank you. Just a question I guess I am looking at power and the relationship of that to your commentary of significant CFOA improvement in 2018. Because I guess a lot of the CFOA shortfall this year is because of power, and you said there's, I think, $3 billion less cash than expected in that business. It's obviously a backlog business. I would guess the pro forma power backlog today, including energy connections, is $100 billion or so. And given that the power market will stay tough in 2018, how do you reconcile the significant overall firm-wide CFOA improvement with a very tough power market again in 2018 and maybe further out?
Jeff Bornstein:
So I am going to start and then I am going to let Jamie trying to give her views on 2018. So I think it's a good question. We do have a big backlog that's an asset we believe not a liability. But if I were going to focus on three things from 2017 to 2018 in power, one is inventory. So we total for the company this year and $7 billion receive CFOA construct that Jamie talked about. A big piece, almost $2 billion of that is an under performance in inventory versus the working capital assumption we had for the year at $12 billion which is about $3 billion flow. And virtually all of that inventory is power. So where we are over optimistic planning both services and units inventory. That inventory is going to liquidate over time and we will get a big benefit we believe in 2018. Second is in 2017 we had about $1 billion of tax associated with restructuring between Hungary and Switzerland as part of the Alstom something. That cash outflow will not repeat next year. And then I think importantly the third leg if you will is a meaningful cost out which also equals cash. A meaningful cost out of the structurally and what's going on in power. We stay well underway on, we are not waiting to exercise these actions; we are taking these actions as we speak. And that also will be a contributor or better profile in 2018. Jamie you want to --
Jamie Miller:
Yes. Jeff, I'd say you touched on the big item which is the tax piece, the higher cash cost this year for restructuring, more cost out really helping us as we get into 2018. And as you can imagine, John talked about the $2 billion plus, a big percentage of that is power. And then the working capital improvement. I guess I'd just say that so to we are going to take you through more detail views and all of 2018 on November 13. We've taken pretty pragmatic view towards this. And I think what you see in terms of us looking at the total year 2017 as well as how we are thinking about 2018 will be tampered as it relate to power. We do expect the condition that we are seeing to continue as we move into that but some of the structural stuff that underlies the cash flow should be a tailwind to offset that.
Operator:
Next we have Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Sprague:
Thanks and good morning, everyone. There have been a couple elephants in the room leading up to today, and another one has been the contract asset account, which is also built upon numerous assumptions. As we sit here and listen to aggressive forecasts, unrealistic assumptions, et cetera, particularly in power, how do we get comfortable with what's gone on in that account? And have you guys actually been able to scrub through that yet?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes. I'll start and then Jamie will say -- so we have Jeff, we've been digging through that I'd say over the last six months. I think we are very comfortable with where we are. And I think you got to think about in power case in a number of buckets. The first is long term service agreement. And I want to be clear here in the third quarter with this performance, our productivity at CSA cum catch was actually down $45 million year-over-year. So it's a small contributor where we are year-over-year in the quarter but it's not the reason that we will way off where we thought we would be in the third quarter. The second is we've really grown long-term equipment agreement. Now this is 811 accounting, these are long-term contracts and generally anywhere from 12 to 24 months, where we build projects out and as we go along the way we incur cost, we rev rec on milestones and then there is also cash billing milestones. And they don't always line up on top one another. That has grown over the last two years, really is a function of two things. One is we added Alstom to the portfolio which had a more higher content of long term project. And as we build out the H units we've done a lot more full scope, much larger scope projects even if it were just content to the turbine island all the way through HRSG and the steam tail that we got with all Alstom, so the amount of this activity in the portfolio has grown. And as a result of that our 811 balance is particularly in power have grown. And so that cost if you will generally liquidates over 12 to 18 months. So we are higher this year by about $800 million than we originally forecast, almost all of that in power. But that will liquidate and turn to cash as we hit billing milestone over the next 12 to 18 months. Jamie you want to --
Jamie Miller:
Yes. On contract assets, look I am deeply familiar with that model and I've only be here in Boston for a couple of weeks but I have gone through and sat through a number of the big reviews with the businesses. And I know the GE balance sheet very well. Look, there is nothing I've seen that gives me any indication on the accounting issue here. I think Jeff explained it pretty well in term of long-term contract equipment build we are seeing.
John Flannery:
Last thing Jeff I'd say just if you try to synthesize the power situation I would say overly optimistic on the market. Aggressive inventory build in TM and AGPs and not taking the cost out. Those three things have sort of combined to lead to an earning shortfall and the cash pressure.
Operator:
Next we have Scott Davis from Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning, guys. John, it seems like you're making lots of changes at the management levels and direct reports and such. But what can we expect at the Board level? You could make an argument this current Board was kind of the Board that got GE to this bad spot. So how do you think about that -- changes in that regard?
John Flannery:
So just a couple of things on that, Scott. One is as I said at the outset; we are looking at every single aspect of the company. Inside the company and outside and that includes the Board. So everything has been on the table. I'd add that the Board has given me a mandate to look at everything with on constraints. They have been fully supporting of making change. We announced recently that Ed Garden is joining the Board. I really look forward to that. I think that's going to enhance the dialogue at the Board level. I think a really robust dialogue to be between and the Board is the healthy dynamic that something I look forward to. And then the last thing obviously is referenced frequently Board is big at 18 people; there is no doubt about that. And that's one of the topics being discussed. So I put it in the bucket of all things being examined right now.
Operator:
Next we have Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Hi, guys, good morning. I just wanted a question on cash flow. We've been getting questions on intra-company receivables that were created when GE assumed debt from GE Capital. So first, is the timing of these receivables matched to the maturities of the debt assumed by the industrial company? Basically the question is could there be a timing shortfall? And finally, is there a risk that the assets rolling off GE Capital can't cover the size of their receivable, and you might need to put in more capital into GE Capital down the line, sort of crippling -- impacting industrial cash flow?
Jeff Bornstein:
Andrew, there is no timing mismatch between GE and GE Capital. They are as opposed to going to external markets around some of the debt that we added this year. We gave our plan to increase net debt -- debt in the company $12 billion this year. Some of that we've gone externally, some of that we've taken from GE Capital by assuming existing external debt to GE Capital had on a fair value basis from coupon perspective. But there is no mismatch of receivables or timing between GE and GE Capital whatsoever. And we don't have any reason to believe that the $155 billion of assets that GE Capital has is not going to serve us, their outstanding debt. Based on maturities here, the cash flow and the earnings in the business, that the GE Capital with the excess liquidity and GE Capital was going to essentially run off year end 2019 and lot of that outstanding debt is essentially the fees in our liquidity pool. So I don't see issues with the either of those things.
Operator:
Next we have Robert McCarthy from Stifel.
Robert McCarthy:
Good morning, everyone. I guess the question -- turning to the asset sales, as we have picked over the dividend quite a bit, is how do you think about kind of the what's on the chopping block, how you are thinking about it, how you are thinking about the cash generation of some of these businesses? Because despite the fact that you said at the outset that there isn't an existential question here with respect to GE, the fact of the matter is any asset sales that you're going to garner or that are going to be accretive or give a good valuation are probably some of the better cash- and growth-led assets of the company. So how do you get away from the fact that you might be selling businesses that ultimately leave you with a company with just structurally lower industrial free cash flow by definition?
John Flannery:
So let me just for a background I grew up 20 years in the financial services business largely investing money. So this is sort of my background to look at where do we invest, what are the structural opportunities, what are the risk, what are risk adjusted returns we can expect. So as an orientation that's how I come and looking at our portfolio and how we allocate capital. We do a lot of the capital allocation inside the company if you will. NPI spending, P&E all those things we are looking at that very intensely. A lot of the capital the company is allocated that level. So we've got a very robust plan and we are implementing and looking at that inside businesses, between businesses, should we put more money in business unit one or two et cetera. So there is a deep analysis going in implementing inside the company. When I look outside the company and what our options are outside the company. They are just a number of businesses here we are really evaluating in that context. Can they compete? What's our competitive position? What's going on in the end markets? What are the returns on capital? How much capital do this each businesses consume? How much management bandwidth do these businesses consume? And as you start to array our entire portfolio which is large and complex and we want to simplify that. There are number of assets, some performing well, and some not performing well that we just don't want to stay with over time. They are good companies that might have a better home somewhere else. So it's a dynamic process, it's a return base process. And at the end of the day the exercise here is to really concentrate the economic firepower of the company on the areas that promises most substantial reward. There are a lot of areas we want to grow in additive and digital and things. So we want to make sure we are channeling the money to the highest return option. And that will be a dynamic and ongoing process always for me.
Operator:
Next we have Deane Dray from - RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I'd just like to follow up on Rob's question there; and John, your answer. You sized today a new disclosure, $20 billion in asset exits over 1 to 2 years. And maybe you can address the timeframe in terms of might you be moving quicker in these exits? And also you talked about other options being considered beyond that $20 billion. Can you frame for us, both in size and thematically, how you might be looking at these other options beyond the $20 billion?
John Flannery:
I'd say on size and two things on timing just stick to the 1 to 2 years outlook. We've got a process going on right now, depending on the type of transaction and structure, the speed of that will move, if there are carve outs and things we have work we had to. So I wouldn’t change the outlook for that. With respect to broader than that, I'd go back to what I have said earlier which is dynamic process that I will do everyday while I am in this job, which is looking at all the portfolio and where we can create value and where we are competitive.. So I don't have a specific thing to share with you today. We will review, I have seen more depth in November but it's going to be an ongoing philosophy and mentality and rigor that make sure we are always investing in the right places.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we have Nigel Coe from Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks for question. Maybe John, just clarify the $20 billion. I'm a little bit confused. Is that $20 billion of sales, or is that estimated value of the asset sales you've identified?
John Flannery:
It's rough estimate of asset value.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, great. Fantastic. And then maybe Jeff or Jamie, you put out a $0.05 estimate for the impact of ASC 606. So can you maybe just mark us to market on where that sits right now? Thanks.
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes. So I'll give you shot. We are not going to have a final number until we complete the year. So that just to lay that down. Jamie is going to share with you in November an estimate what we think the 605 to 606 impacts going to be 2017. I would say generally the last thing we told investors was we expect the 2018 to be about $0.05 impact on transition. We don't have final numbers here but I think that's going to be a larger impact. I don't know exactly how much but it could be between $0.05 and $0.08 or $0.05 and $0.10. And will that get closer to final when we move towards year end. The other thing I want to caution everybody on, once we convert the 606 on January 1st, those are the only books we are going to have. We are not going to keep two sets of books between 605 and 606. So the ability for Jamie and the team in 2018 to go back and tell you exactly what that transition impact is going to be for the year or any given quarter is only going to be a very rough estimate. We are not going to keep two sets of book.
Jamie Miller:
So, look we will take you through this on November 13. I mean obviously there is a big fourth quarter focus area. The one thing I'd add to what Jeff said is the cum catch is still in the range of what we've been estimating before. And as we go through it we lay out both how we think you should think about margins on long-term equipment, margin on services and just how best to sort of gauge the 2018 to 2017 run rate views.
Matt Cribbins:
Great, thanks. I Jump before you wrap we just want to thank everyone for joining. Know we ran a little bit long but we wanted to try to get in as many question as we could. John to you.
John Flannery:
Great. Thanks Matt. I'd finish where I started just saying we are deeply disappointed in today's results. They are unacceptable. That is crystal clear to the team here. We fundamentally have a collection of good franchises. We have to run them better. We know what the issues are. We know we need to do the fix them and I'd characterize this as largely a self help story here. And I'd just from here forward we reset the company for a better future. And on the behalf of myself and I know definitely all of the GE employees, we look forward to delivering for investors. This is a company we have deep pride in and you can count on us to deliver in the future. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. And you may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matt Cribbins - VP, Investor Communications Jeff Immelt - Chairman and CEO John Flannery - Next Chairman and CEO Jeff Bornstein - Vice Chairman and CFO
Analysts:
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Andrew Kaplowitz - Citi Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Chris Glynn - Oppenheimer
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the GE Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. My name is Jason, and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matt Cribbins:
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to GE’s Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. With us today are our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; our next Chairman and CEO, John Flannery; and GE Vice Chairman and CFO, Jeff Bornstein. Before we start, I would like to remind you that our earnings release, presentation and supplemental have been available since earlier today on our website at www.ge.com/investor. Please note that some of the statements we are making today are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. And now, I’ll turn the call over to Jeff Immelt.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks, Matt. GE had a solid quarter in a volatile world. Let me give you a few themes that describe the environment. U.S. is stable on a slow growth rate, global growth is accelerating, and resource markets remain challenging. Out topline results are solid. In the second quarter, our organic results were
Jeff Bornstein:
Thanks, Jeff. Starting with consolidated results. Revenues were $29.6 billion, down 12% in the quarter; industrial revenues of $27.1 billion were also down 12%. As you can see on the right side of the page, the industrial segment was down 2% on a reported basis but up 2% organically, driven principally by the appliances disposition. Industrial operating plus verticals EPS was $0.28, down 45% versus the prior year, driven by substantial appliance gain in the second quarter of last year. We had $0.06 of restructuring with no gains in the quarter versus $0.11 of net gains after restructuring last year. Operating EPS was $0.19 in the quarter, down from $0.39 in the second quarter of 2016. This incorporates the other continuing GE Capital activity, including excess debt and headquarter runoff costs that I’ll cover on the GE capital page. Continuing EPS of $0.15 includes the impact of non-operating pension; and net EPS of $0.13 includes discontinued operations. The total disc ops impact was a charge of $152 million in the quarter, driven by GE Capital Exit Plan item. GE tax rate was 13% in the quarter; we still expect the ongoing operations of the business to have a mid teens tax rate for the year. However, the Water disposition will be a low-tax transaction and will bring the overall tax rate for our industrial to around 10% for the third quarter and about that for the total year. The GE Capital tax rate was favorable, reflecting a tax benefit on a pretax continuing loss. We had a better cash quarter. CFOA was $3.5 billion, including $2 billion dividend from GE Capital and industrial CFOA was $1.5 billion in the quarter. It was up $3.1 billion from the first quarter and up substantially from the second quarter of last year. At the half, industrial CFOA is $200 million usage. We expect substantial improvement in cash in second half driven by higher earnings, continued working capital improvement on higher shipment, partly offset by contract assets. For the year, we are guiding to the bottom end of the $12 billion to $14 billion range on CFOA, driven by pressure principally in power, and oil and gas. John and I are reviewing our capital allocation plan for the year. Dividend remains our priority. We are relooking the $11 billion to $13 billion range on cash use for buyback, based on the timing of disposition. Year-to-date, we bought back $3.6 billion of shares. On the right side are the segment results. As I mentioned, the industrial segment revenues were down 2% on a reported basis and up 2% organically. For the half, the industrial segment revenues were up 4% organically. Industrial segment op profit was down 4% reported and down 1% organically; and industrial op profit which includes corporate operating cost was down 1% reported and up 4% organically. The demonstrated industrial op profit and industrial plus vertical EPS year-over-year is driven by the effects of restructuring the appliance gain and associated tax impacts of appliance. Through the half, industrial op profit of $6.8 billion is up 4% reported and up 11% organically. On an EPS basis, we’ve earned $0.48 of EPS, which is $0.62 excluding the first half naked restructuring. Given our outlook on oil and gas and power, we are trending to the bottom end of the range of $1.60 to $1.70 EPS for the year. Next, on industrial and other items for the quarter. As I said, we had $0.06 of charges related to industrial restructuring and other items that were taken at corporate. Charges were little more than $700 million on a pretax basis. This was slightly less than expected driven by lower cost to execute projects and short-term timing delays on projects we will likely execute here in the third quarter. Corporate, power, renewables, healthcare, and oil and gas had the largest investments in the quarter. Restructuring charges totaled about $500 million and BD charges were approximately $200 million mostly related to Baker Hughes news the LM Wind acquisition, Water diposition as well as the Industrial Solutions disposition and the digital transaction. There were no gains in the quarter. For the year, we expect about $0.25 of restructuring to be offset by $0.25 of gains from the Water and Industrial Solutions dispositions. We’re targeting a third quarter close for the Water transaction and the fourth quarter close for Industrial Solutions. The Industrial Solutions transaction may push to early 2018, but our plan is to do $0.25 of restructuring this year. We’ll update you on deal timing as we get closer. Next, I’ll cover the segments, starting with power. Our recorded orders of $7.7 billion, down 1% in the quarter. Excluding the large Halcyon steam order in the second quarter of last year, orders actually grew 11%. Equipment orders were down 1%, but up 33% ex the Halcyon order. Gas power system was up 26% on higher H turbine order of nine versus five last year and six HA units booked in Mexico, our first in the account. The H backlog totaled 33 units. HRSG orders grew a 100% to 10 versus 5 a year ago. Offsetting GPS was steam power, down 42% with no repeat of that Halcyon order, which totaled about $800 million. Equipment backlog grew 27% year-over-year. Service orders were down 1%, primarily driven by lower AGPs in the quarter of 20 versus 24 last year, and the larger mix of light AGPs versus full scope and by lower outages which were down 9%; this was partially offset by growth in installations and other upgrades. Service backlog grew 7% year-over-year. Power revenues were up 5% to $7 billion. Equipment revenues were up 12%, driven primarily by gas power systems up 17% on higher scope balance of plant and higher HRSG ship of 10 versus 4 last year; this was partially offset by lower gas turbine shipment of 21 versus 26. Service revenues grew 1%, our distributor power services up 10% offset by flat power service. Power service is flat on lower outages, and fewer and lighter scope AGPs, 21 versus 28 offset by higher other upgrades which were up 42%. Operating profit in the quarter was down 10% on higher equipment versus services including higher balance of plant volume at low margin. Fewer AGPs and lower variable cost productivity which was partly offset by structural base cost down 7%. Lower VCP in the quarter was impacted by about $70 million of liquidated damages with delivery delays and fuel mod cost of about $20 million that we don’t expect to repeat going forward. The business is finding opportunities for growth. We took nine H turbine orders in the quarter. We also booked the largest services deal in the history of the business, the $3 billion Algeria deal with Sonelgaz that included 68 AGPs. This showed up in backlog, not orders in the quarter. However, we’re planning for a down market this year. We expect the power market to see demand for about 40 gigawatts of power this year, down about 10%, consistent with what we said in March. We’re also planning for a down market in 2018. We expect to ship a 100 to 105 gas turbines in the year, no change in that outlook. We believe that we have a technology advantage relative to competitors and we’re gaining share. Having said that, the market is very competitive, and overcapacity and new product introductions will continue. For services, we expect 2017 now to just to be down about 4%, driven by F-class major outages, which we think will be down about 9% as a result of lower utilization, lower capacity payment, particularly North America and extended intervals between outages. This is softer than we expected coming into the year. We are targeting total upgrades to grow and AGPs to total between 155 and 165 for the year. However, we have got a risk of 20 to 30 driven by timing of large second half AGP deals that are yet to be agreed to. The first half, the business is up 10% on revenues and higher by 7% on operating profit with margin rates down 50 basis points. Power has taken out around $143 million of structural base costs to date and we are continuing to work additional actions on cost for the year. Next is renewables. Orders in the quarter were $2.1 billion, up 2% reported and down 2% organic. Onshore wind orders of $1.7 billion were down 5%, driven by lower repower orders and services. Onshore equipment orders were higher by 4% on strong international winds. The number of units ordered was 567 versus 637 last year, down 11% but the megawatts grew 12% on larger machines. Hydro orders of $250 million were up 38% and LM at 80 million of water orders in the quarter. Revenues were $2.5 billion, up 17%, up 13% organic. Onshore revenue grew 12% and hydro grew 79%. Onshore was driven by the repowering product that we introduced last year. Wind turbines shipped totaled 757 versus 856 last year, down 12% but the megawatts shipped were 8%. Operating profit of 160 million was up 25%, driven by repower volume, better product cost and foreign exchange, partly offset by price. Margin rates improved 40 basis points. The wind market continues to be very competitive, product cost out is absolutely imperative and the team has made progress on the 2 megawatt platform and need to execute the same on the same 3 megawatt turbine as we begin to deliver that machine. LM will be critical to drive cost and differentiation going forward. This business is on track with double-digit growth and improved margin rates for the total year. Next, on aviation, the market continues to be robust. Global passenger RPKs grew 7.9% year-to-date through May with strong growth on both domestic and international routes. Airfreight volumes have been very strong as well, growing up over 11% May year-to-date. And load factors globally are above 80%. Orders in the quarter totaled $7.3 billion, up 14%. Equipment orders grew 11% and services grew 15%. Within equipment orders, commercial engine orders grew 35% to $1.9 billion on higher LEAP GE90 and GE9X order. These orders did not conclude any of the Paris Air Show announcements we made. Military equipment orders of $292 million were down 48%, driven by no repeat of an order last year for 212 T700 helicopter engine. Service orders grew 15%, as I mentioned with commercial services higher by 16% on strong spears of 14% to $21.6 million a day and strong military services growth of 14%. Backlog finished the quarter up 2% to $159 billion. Revenues in the quarter were flat at $6.5 billion. Equipment revenue was down 16%, driven by commercial down 15% and military down 39%. Commercial engine shipments were lower by 10% on pure legacy engines, partly offset by higher LEAP volume. The business shipped 93 LEAP engines in the quarter. Service revenues grew 13% on higher commercial spares up 14% and good military performance including our military spares. Operating profit of $1.5 billion was up 11%, primarily driven by higher service volume and base cost productivity which more than offset the negative LEAP margin. Margins were 210 basis points higher in the quarter. At the Paris Air Show, we announced $31 billion in orders and commitments including new engine commitments $ 21 billion and services up $10 billion. None of these announcements were booked in orders of the second quarter. In additive, we announced the development of the world’s largest laser powder machine targeted to the aerospace segment. We also announced a partnership with Stryker r to provide machines, material and services for the global supply chain operation. The LEAP engine continues to perform to spec with 62 aircraft flying today. The business is on track to ship 450 to 500 LEAP engines this year. The business is executed well in the first half. As LEAP shipments accelerate in the second half, we expect the margins to be pressured and still expect total year margin rate to be roughly flat with 2016. Next, on oil and gas. We closed the combination of our legacy oil and gas business with legacy Baker Hughes in July 3rd. The new company’s listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol BHGE. In September, Lorenzo and his team will give you an update on the outlook of the new company and the progress on integration and synergy. Today, we will discuss only the results of GE’s legacy oil and gas business and not the results of legacy Baker Hughes business. The oil and gas environment remains challenging. Our legacy business sees some improvement in activity but we have not seen meaningful increases in customer capital commitment. Oil prices remain volatile and as a result our customers remain cautious. As we’ve said previously, we expect shorter cycle activity to increase in the second half of the year. So, far these improvements are tending below our expectations. Orders in the quarter of $3.2 billion grew 12% versus last year and grew 14% organically. The equipment book-to-bill ratio was 1-to-1 for the first time in the better part of two years. Equipment orders totaled $1.4 billion, up 50%. Every business segment grew. Subsea was higher by a 177% on orders in Brazil and the Eni Mozambique Coral project. Turbomachinery was up 14%, also driven by the Eni Coral scope and service orders grew 57% on strength of the Middle East. We had terminations in the quarter totaling $542 million, driven predominantly by one project scheduled to deliver beyond 2018. Service orders were $1.8 billion, down 6% on softer markets, driven by turbomachinery down 13%, surface down 11%, subsea down 6%, partially offset by strong performance by digital solutions, which grew 6%. Total backlog ended the quarter at $20 billion, down 12% versus last year. Revenues of $3.1 billion were down 3% versus last year. Equipment revenue was down 8%, driven by subsea down 31% which more than offset growth in surface up 12% and turbomachinery up 3%. Service revenues were flat year-over-year. Operating profit of a $155 million in the quarter was down 52%. Performance was driven by unfavorable price and negative variable cost productivity that more than offset sourcing and structural cost out. On variable cost productivity, I put the impacts in two categories. First, we had two big one-time items. Rework on a nonrecurring issue related to a single contract totaling about $30 million and a write-down obsolete inventory for about $25 million. Second, lower volume impacted both overhead absorption and supply chain benefit. We also had $25 million of integration costs in the business in the quarter. As the market recovery’s been slower and more volatile than we planned, performance of the business in the second quarter was below expectation. Customers are delaying purchasing for both, larger projects and shorter cycle OpEx activity. Given the slower market activity, we expect that numbers in the second for legacy GE Oil & Gas to be lower than previously anticipated but improve from the first half. The business is very-focused on the synergy pipeline with the integration in order to offset as much of the market pressures possible. Beginning with third quarter results, BHGE will release its own financial statements and hold a separate earnings call. We will consolidate Baker Hughes GE into our financial statements less than 37.5% minority interest. Next on healthcare. Orders of $5 billion grew 3%, 4% organically. On an organic basis, the U.S. was up 1%, Europe was up 2% and the emerging markets grew 11%, driven China up 18%, ASEAN up 15%, Latin America grew 5%; the Middle East actually declined 6% organically in the quarter. On a product basis, healthcare systems orders grew 3%, 4% organically, driven by ultrasound up 8% and imaging products higher by 4%. Mammography and CT were particularly strong on the new product launches. Life Care Solutions was flat, driven by the impact of healthcare reform uncertainty in the U.S. market. Our Life sciences business grew orders 5% organically, with core imaging up 8% and bioprocess up 5%. Revenues in the quarter of $4.7 billion grew 5% organically. Healthcare systems grew revenues 5% organically and life sciences grew by 8% organically. Operating profit was up 6% in the quarter to $826 million, driven by volume and productivity, partially offset by price and programs for product cost reduction. Margins improved 30 basis points in quarter. We expect the second half performance to be similar to the first half with low to mid single digit revenue growth with stronger operating profit growth. The business is executing well and we will continue to simplify structure to drive lower product cost. On transportation, North American carload volume continues to improve off a low base. Carload volume grew 7.3% in the quarter, driven by intermodal higher by 5.6% and commodity carloads up 9%. Commodity carload growth was driven by export coal up 18% and agriculture up 10%, partially offset by petroleum down 4%. Despite improving trends since mid-2016, overcapacity remains in parked locos around 4,000 and very little investment appetite from U.S. customers. Orders in the quarter of $830 million were higher by 22% on easy comparison. Equipment orders of $231 million doubles on international demand for 26 locos. Service orders of $600 million grew 7%, a good growth in loco parts and mining. Revenues of $1.1 billion were down 14% with equipment down 27% and services flat. We shipped 120 locals in the quarter versus 222 a year ago with international shipments up 34%, partly offsetting North America which was down 77%. Operating profit in the quarter was down 26% on lower volume, partly offset by cost actions. The North American locomotive market will continue to be challenging in 2017 and 2018. We expect 2017 loco shipments to be lower by about 50% with operating profit down double digits since we’ve guided. The business is focused on growing internationally. The business recently announced a $575 million win in Egypt for a 100 locos plus service. We expect this to book as an order in the third quarter. Executing on resizing the business to market has been ongoing and we continue to evaluate additional actions as needed. Next on energy connections and lighting, orders for the segment totaled $3 billion with energy connection orders of $2.6 billion and current orders of $380 million. The energy connections orders were down 12% reported and down 7% organic, driven by grid down 8% on no repeatable large Egypt order and power conversion down 14%, offset by 1% growth in the industrial solutions. Revenues ex appliances were reported down 2% but up 2% organic. Energy connection revenues were higher by 4% organic on strength in grid and industrial solutions, partly offset by power conversion. Lightning revenues were down 9% with current down 2% and legacy down 17%, as a result of the market exits and restructuring we’ve been doing over the past year. Operating profit in the quarter was $80 million, up over 400% ex appliance. Energy connection nearly doubled profits to $68 million on grid and industrial solutions performance and productivity, partly offset by power conversion on weak volume. Lighting earned $13 million versus a loss last year. As announced, energy connections will be consolidated with power in the third quarter which we believe will create significant opportunity for future structural cost out. We’ll provide recast date, once we finalize it in the third quarter. Finally, I’ll cover GE Capital. The verticals earned $544 million in the quarter, up 20% from the prior year, driven primarily by higher base earnings. GECAS, Energy Finance and Industrial Finance all had strong quarters and they delivered a solid first half of the year. They execute ahead of the plan on their 2017 guidance. In the second quarter, the verticals funded $1.9 billion of on-book volume and enabled approximately $3.9 billion of industrial orders. Overall, portfolio quality remains stable. Other continuing operations generated $716 million loss in the quarter driven by $343 million of excess interest expense, a $182 million of preferred dividend, $146 million of restructuring costs related to portfolio transformation and $45 million of headquarters run-off expense. Other continuing was $335 million better than last year, driven by lower excess interest and lower headquarter cost. Discontinued operations generated a $152 million loss from trailing costs and exit plan related items. Overall, GE Capital reported a net loss of $324 million, 72% better than last year. GE Capital paid $2 billion in cash dividends during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $4 billion and ended the quarter with a $160 billion of assets including $37 billion in liquidity, down $7 billion from the first quarter. Looking ahead, during the second half of the year, we expect lower asset sale. And as a reminder, we will conduct our annual impairment review with GECAS in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, we will perform our annual cash flow test of our run-off insurance business. We recently have had adverse claims experience in a portion of our long-term care portfolio and we will assess the adequacy of our premium returns. We will update you in the fourth quarter. Lastly, in other continuing operations for the second half of the year, we continue to expect incremental tax benefit associated with recovering a portion of the exit plan tax cost we incurred. With that, I’ll turn it over to John.
John Flannery:
Thanks, Jeff. I just wanted to give you a quick update on our transition process. As you know, my official start date is August 1st. And we’d indicated earlier that I’d be doing a full review of the Company and be back to investors in the fall with my views. We are on track with this process. I am in the middle of a series of deep dives into each of the businesses, looking at everything you would expect. What is the market outlook, where can we grow, where can we improve margins, how is the cash conversion, what returns are we getting on investment? For example, next week, we will be visiting our power and aviation businesses. We are also taking a hard look at our corporate spending, going through a zero base budget exercise on all of our functions and making sure 100% of our GE store outlays are accretive to the overall results of the Company. In addition to the business reviews, I want to repeat the process I used in healthcare to really get out and listen to what people are thinking, good and bad about the Company. I always start with customers and employees, but it’s also important to get the view of our government partners and especially our investors. As I was out with Matt Cribbins last week and we saw about 100 different analysts and portfolio managers, and we will be doing more of that over the next couple of months. There is a lot of positive feedback from these listening sessions but also plenty of suggestions on ways we can improve. This is all leading to a report out in November. Our main focus then will be translating the business assessments into our thoughts on cost out and capital allocation choices as well as reframing our look at 2018 and beyond. I’m really excited to get started officially on August 1st and look forward to our ongoing dialogue. So, Jeff, back to you to wrap.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks, John. Overall, we have no change to the framework but there are puts and takes in each area. We see the key elements of earnings to be on track, 3% to 5% organic growth and 100 basis points of margin enhancement. We have pressure in power, and oil and gas but we’ll outperform structural cost out. We’ve set a target of $17.2 billion for industrial EBIT and we expect to hit it, even with those headwinds. Jeff discussed the impact of additional pressure from the resource sector could have on the EPS range earlier. We expect to hit $16 billion to $20 billion of free cash flow plus dispositions. We still expect to have solid industrial CFOA between the $12 billion to $14 billion, again somewhat dependent on the resource sector. Our dispositions are taking longer than expected but we have to close both in the year. I expect John to take a fresh look at capital allocation, but GE will always have a strong commitment to the dividend. Let’s take a bigger picture view of the Company. We have created a very strong position in power, healthcare, transport and resources, big industrial segments. We don’t like the current on a gas cycle but our business is significantly improved and will prosper as the cycle recovers. We are gaining share in most of our markets with $327 billion of backlog. We have a leadership position in the industrial internet and additive manufacturing, two growth areas and drivers of industrial productivity. And in volatile global economy, our industrial EBIT plus the earnings from our GE Capital verticals should be about $19 billion and again generate between $16 billion and $20 billion in the free cash flow plus disposition. So, a pretty good performance in the volatile environment. I know John Flannery can improve on this. John is off to a great start and I look forward to working with him. Matt, now over to you for some questions.
Matt Cribbins:
Thank you. With that let’s open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Julian Mitchell from Credit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell:
My question would really be on the CFOA for the year coming in at the lower end of the $12 billion to $14 billion guidance, sounds like that’s mostly power, and oil and gas. So I wondered if you could give us some transparency around what is the cash conversion or free cash flow margin like in those two businesses in 2017. And when you think about their cash flow performance this year, how much do you think it’s weighed down by short-term one-time factors? In other words, how quickly do you think it can spring back to an acceptable level of cash flow in those two businesses?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes, Julian. So, we expect the power business to deliver a positive CFOA in the year for sure as well as oil and gas. And we actually oil and gas to have -- relative to the environment they are operating in and how do we see their second half, a reasonably good performance around CFOA for the year for oil and gas. So, the power business is going to be something like 50% to 60% conversion in the year; other businesses will be higher. Healthcare will be closer to 100%; aviation will be quite good. But I would guess that power is going to be somewhere between 50% to 60% conversion for the year.
Jeff Immelt:
I would also add, Julian. We’re doing $2 billion of cash related to restructuring. A lot of that’s in the power sector. None of us expect that to repeat in 2018. So that’s a natural tailwind, let’s say in terms of CFOA in 2018.
Jeff Bornstein:
So, why don’t I walk from the first half to the second half a little bit in terms of kind how we’re thinking about it. There is no doubt we have a big second half to deliver on cash, and that’s similar to where we were last year. Relative to the first half, there is really three big drivers. One, we’ve got higher earnings, in line with our volume; our cost-out profile; and gains versus restructuring. In the first half, we had a $0.14 headwind; in the second half, with the gains, we’ll offset that $0.14 headwind and have -- $0.14 offset in earnings. We’ll have significantly better working capital performance. Although I think we feel pretty good about the second quarter. We generated $700 million in CFOA in the second quarter from working capital and that was almost $1.5 billion better than where we were in the second quarter of last quarter. I think importantly within that there was a couple hundred million of inventory improvement, which I don’t think we’ve ever realized in the second quarter of any year in recent history. As we look to the second half, the working capital will get better, largely driven by inventory, a bit by payables and we’ll have some receivables improvement. And that’s consistent where we were last year. So, working capital last year, we improved in the second half, better than $5 billion; we’re not anticipating $5 billion but looking more at just under $4 billion improvement this year. So, we think we’ve executed before, we can execute again in a similar way. And lastly, on contract assets, we still expect contract assets to be a cash usage in the second half but not nearly the rate that we saw in the first half. And we expect it will look very similar to the change in contract assets in the second half of last year, which was about $1.4 billion or $1.5 billion. So, if you look at second half cash flow versus 2016, we delivered $11 billion of CFOA in the second half of last year. We need to do about $1 billion more this year, which is primarily a function of earnings. And we expect working capital to be about $3.9 billion better in the second half. So, the total improvement for the year of about $3.3 billion and that’s less than the $5.1 billion of working capital improvement we had in the second half of last year. As I say contract asset has been a little bit of drag in the second half but in line with where we were in the second half of last year. And I’d say lastly, other operating, all the other elements of cash flow will be better in the second half than the first half and will be better substantially versus 2016. So that’s kind of how we think about going from the first half to the second half.
Jeff Immelt:
And also say, Jeff, in 2016, we ran the place with a couple of $3 billion less working capital. We’re into the same thing in 2017. But I think the team -- there is a lot of juice in this left. And I think we have every expectation that we’re going to be able to continue to reduce the amount of working capital that’s needed to run GE in the near future.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
So, could you give us a little more color on what you are seeing in power? You mentioned trending toward the bottom of your EPS range for the Company, I think despite a lower tax rate. And power specifically, is services overall just a tougher market than you thought? You talked about the delays you are seeing in services, but how much of the power weakness would you say is execution related and how much low-hanging fruit does Russell have to improve delivery timing and overall execution of the business?
Jeff Bornstein:
So, I guess I’ll start, others can way in. I would say, generally, I think the units market on the equipment side is more or less what we thought it would be. We said -- we saw 40 gigawatt market, down 10%. In that context, we said, we thought we’d take orders for 85 to 95 units in the year; we still think that holds, we’ve got about 39 units during the first half. We said we thought we’d ship 100 to 105; we think that’s still a reasonable expectation. And we talked about the gas turbine business, the units business turning around profitability from the launch last year to this year, and we still expect that holds true. I think on the service front, I think it definitely is softer than we thought when you look at outage volumes. We thought outages were going to be down mid single-digits. Right now, it looks like particularly in the gas base and on the bigger F-class outages, we’re running about 9% down year-over-year that’s partly driven by utilization, it’s partly lower capacity payments, it’s partly extending intervals between outages, but that feels softer. So, the transactional business, which is 50 plus percent of the business, that feels softer than where we came into the year. But, I’ll put it little bit in perspective, I think having said that, to the first half revenues in the business were up 10%; operating profit was 7%; there is definitely some execution there. I talked about 90 plus million of LDs and a fuel mod that we had to do, we don’t expect those to continue. The 70 million of LDs were really around prelaunch H unit where we took a little bit of risk on schedule and commission and not having been through the process, and it took us a bit longer to get there. We feel like we’re absolutely on track on the balance of the H commitment. So, we don’t expect the LDs to continue. And then, when you think about total year, we still think about the power business being up mid single digits on revenue and up roughly high to low double digits on earnings. I just think that in the backlog of everything we have got in front of us here that it does feel softer. The business still thinks, they are going to do 155 to 165 AGPs in the year. But I think the mix of light AGPs versus full scope AGPs is a higher -- the mix of light is heavier than we probably anticipated coming into the year. And then I talked about in that estimate on AGPs. We have some risk. We have got some really big deals in the second half that could put 20 or 30 of those units of risk. I’m not telling you the business doesn’t think they are going to deliver them. I’m just highlighting for you, there could be a risk there. So, definitely service is softer than maybe we came into the year with. I think the units business is more or less as expected. And it’s gas outrages on the service side, lower steam and boiler work on the outage side in services. But overall, if we can get to a year that’s kind of up mid single digits on revenue and high single digits to low double digits on op profit, everything else being equal, not too bad.
Jeff Immelt:
And I would add to that Andrew. As you put the energy connections business together with the power business, you’re going to look at a funnel of maybe another $1 billion of structural costs you can take out of the combined business, rolling into 2018. So, I think to add to Jeff, there is probably close $100 million that shouldn’t repeat that we should have done better in the quarter. I think the profile for the year is still going to look attractive for the segment. And I think the team has a nice cost -- is developing a good cost plan going into 2018 that I think should create a buffer against the market.
Jeff Bornstein:
There is both, an opportunity and necessity to restructure the cost structure of this business, given the market that we are operating in. And I expected that the business on their structural cost commitments is going to over perform in 2017. And as Jeff just talked about, we are building a plan around something close to a $1 of structural cost out of 2018.
Operator:
Next, we have Jeffrey Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Jeff Immelt. Good luck and thanks for all your thoughts and insights over the year, much appreciated.
Jeff Immelt:
Jeff, you and I have done this a long time. I’m going to miss you and I look forward to having a beer with you as a citizen someday, as civilian.
Jeffrey Sprague:
I’d like to do that definitely. Just on cash flow, I guess maybe perhaps for Jeff Bornstein. The first half obviously came in short of what you thought; you thought you would kind of equal last year at roughly $400 million. I wonder if you could also decompose what the source of that may be roughly $600 million shortfall was. And just your comment on share repo, are you linking the conclusion or execution of these divestitures to your share repurchase plan or what variable is really driving the reevaluation of the repo? Thank you.
Jeff Bornstein:
So, I think what I said on the call, maybe I misspoke on the call. What I meant to say on the call was we expected the CFOA in the second quarter would be substantially better sequentially from the first and substantially better than the second quarter of last year. I didn’t mean to say that we would be flat year-over-year. I think generally speaking at $1.5 billion, $1 billion of CFOA, we felt pretty good about that. Would we have liked it been A bit higher? Sure. But I thought the inventory performance was pretty good, the receivables performance was pretty good; payables were used in the quarter maybe a little higher than we expected but that’s partly driven by the cost-out that’s happening and the inventory improvement. So, I think at a $1.5 billion that was reasonable performance. And it puts us pretty close to where we were at the half. You were right, we’re down 600 year to date year-over-year but that was included in the context of how I kind walked you from how we think about going from the first half to the second half total year and with that means for working capital and other cash flow improvement we expect to see. On repurchase, I think our share buyback has always been predicated on dividends from GE Capital and the disposition. So, no change in there. I think that there is a risk that industrial solutions won’t happen in the year. It’s hard for me to exactly handicap. But, I think there is at least an equal probability that will happen in the first quarter of 2018 it will happen in the fourth quarter of this year. As I mentioned earlier, we feel pretty good about the fact that Water will get to a closing here in the third quarter. So, having said all of that, I think as part of John’s relook about what we’re doing, I think John wants to go back and rethink about how we think about capital allocation in the Company and embedded in that obviously is how we think about share buyback. So, we’re being open objective and John wants to take a look at it and really work through with the team what the right way forward is and what the right alternatives are.
Jeff Immelt:
I hate to be a broken record but there is -- Jeff, there is $2 billion of cash associated with restructuring in 2017 that’s probably a $500 million or $600 million more than 2016 and that should mainly not repeat going into 2018. So that’s in these numbers. And I would just eco what Jeffery said about capital allocation what John should do. The only other context I’d give you though is that everybody here prioritizes the dividend in a very high -- at very high level. And I just don’t want anybody to ever be confused about that in the context GE, what we do, how we do, and whoever CEO is how we think about that as a context. I was here the day we cut the dividend, it was the worst day of my tenure as CEO and the dividend is really I think incredibly important for our investors and for the team.
Jeff Bornstein:
Just one point of clarification on the restructuring cash. So, yes, we’ll probably spend slightly more than $2 billion in cash on restructuring in 2017. Everything else being equal, I’m trying to avoid giving the 2018 guidance here before John’s gone through framework, but we would expect to spend substantially less than that in 2018 but it won’t be zero. There will be projects we do in the third and fourth quarter that allow cash that spills over.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we have Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
For Jeff, congrats and best wishes on your last earnings call, and we are expecting to hear good reports about improvements in your golf game. A question for John. So, given the management transition and now the mid-November timing for the reset and the new vision for the Company, how can you minimize the effects of GE being in somewhat of a state of limbo until then, for want of a better word?
John Flannery:
Listen, we are going through a process that we’ve laid out for you guys. It’s a substantial process in a large company that takes a commensurate amount of time. I’d say Jeff and Jeff have laid out a framework for the year already, so there should be no change in thinking around that. And then, we’re spending a lot of time internally with the team. So, I would say there is no risk of limbo inside the team. I actually start August 1st, but there’s a lot of interaction already. So I’m not worried about internal paralysis, if you will. And you have our outlook for the year. So, I look forward to the November -- a robust discussion in November about the Company and not worried that we’re going to be dead in the water in the meantime.
Jeff Immelt:
And I think the teams are still executing against their AIP plans, their LTIP plans. There is a ton of operational focus inside the Company that investors can count on while John’s going through his kind of an over to the top review.
Jeff Bornstein:
I would just -- if you don’t mind, John, I would just add. It’s an enormous company, it’s complex. We want to reground, rebaseline everything we do in this company, how we do it, the value of the GE store, how it creates value in our franchise. That’s a big, big body work, as well as understanding portfolio and John getting deep on and developing his own views about what we’re going to invest against, what we’re going to not invest against et cetera. So, I understand the point completely Deane. I just think that’s a meaningful body of work and I think when John gets up in front of investors and shares his views, we want that to be as absolutely as well informed as possible. So, I just think it takes that amount of time. But I understand your point between now and then there’ll be a lot of people speculating on how John might come out of it.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we have Andrew Obin from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning. Jeff, thanks for all the work over the years. Look forward to work with your successor. Thank you very much. Just a question on power, the outlook for 2018, just sort of talking about lower and thinking about Siemens’ commentary, is it cyclical or is something structural going on in terms of outlook for power?
Jeff Immelt:
I think Andrew, if you look at a micro study like IEA, which or EPE [ph] study of the industry things like that. These would show slow but steady increases in the evolution around natural gas really for the next 20 years, right, in terms of additions to capacity and things like that. And you can triangulate that against whatever your assumptions might be on accelerating penetration of solar, reduction of nuclear. There is a whole series of things over the next five years or 10 years or 20 years. But I think what’s clear is with the ongoing outlook for the cost of natural gas, gas turbans and gas power generation are going to be one of the staples of the future of the industry. Now, does that mean 50 gigawatts, instead of 40 gigawatts in the short-term, I don’t think any of are that smart. You’ve got places like Saudi Arabia that used to be the biggest gas turbine market that have been slower over the last couple of years; they’re going to need capacity; there is -- what does China do, vis-à-vis their environmental issue. There is probably five markets that matter that would make it more on the upside, but I actually think there is a fit for the gas market going forward. That being said, I don’t think there is benefit to Jeff or John or to Russell now to be overly bullish about the near-term kind of dynamics around the industry. But at the same time, I think somewhere in the 40ish area is pretty much where I would think about the industry going forward. And then outrages that Jeff went through, this is going to be a function of kind of renewable mix; it’s going to be a function of hot summer, cold winters, price of coal, price of gas and bunch of other things. But, I think there is reasons to believe that that number stabilizes as time goes on.
Jeff Bornstein:
Andrew, I think that when we get up in November, we will share our view of where we think the power business is going for 2018 and to some degree beyond that. We think the power market this year for gas turbine can be 40 gigawatts, that’s down roughly 10%. It might be down again next year. I think so far the business is competitively been in a good place. We’ve seen a little bit of price but we are definitely outperforming competition on both, price, orders and share. When John is deep in the business and develop the view with Russell on where this is going, we will share that in November.
Jeff Immelt:
I think you are sitting, though, Jeff, in a year where equipment means [ph] is going to be --- the power equipment is going to be 10% or something? It’s going to be high. Let’s put it that way. That doesn’t spell disaster, I don’t think.
Operator:
Thank you and our final question comes from Chris Glynn from Oppenheimer.
Chris Glynn:
I just had a question on the contract accounting long-term service agreements. Wondering if there is an update on the accounting change impact next year and also if there is any view to somehow monetizing the LTSAs in a way that’s different from the past?
Jeff Bornstein:
So a couple of things, one is I don’t have an update for you today on the 606 accounting change. We are working it rigorously. When we have an update as to the impact to 2016, 2017 and a relook at what we think the impact might be in 2018, we will share that with you. Right now, we are going through first quarter actuals and auditing those and making sure we’ve got the processes in place to deal with all the changes. So, I don’t have any change in guidance for you on that. I don’t have an update other than we are going through the mechanics in the process. It’s pretty complicated stuff, particularly around LTSAs. On monetization, listen, I’m -- particularly where there has an interest in putting upgrades or other investment into a contract, if there are capital markets solutions to help customers do that and were pricing for that as opposed to us essentially pricing it, I’m wide open on that. Those structures are not simple. But we continue to explore what those might be. We have done a little bit of it. We have done some of it for sure, but mostly focused around how we think about upgrade. And the variable component where it’s utilization based, it’s very difficult to think about doing something around that, but if you’ve got fixed payments embedded, like for an upgrade, that is something that we can think about doing. The last thing I’d tell you just -- in the quarter, nobody asked but our CMRs or LTSA gains in the quarter were $500 million; they were $600 million in the second quarter of last year. So, they are down 100 million year-over-year.
Matt Cribbins:
Okay. Thank you. And just a reminder that the replay of today’s call will be available this afternoon on our investor website. And Jeff, to wrap up your last call.
Jeff Immelt:
Great, Matt. So, the first time I did this, all we did was fax a press release, and that’s been replaced 64 subsequent times by this incredible work. So, it shows you I’ve been doing this a long time or how much times have changed. I would like to publically thank the GE finance team led by Jeff. You guys have no idea how much work goes into this. Matt, thanks for your great effort. By JoAnna especially you, it’s been great to work with you for so many years. And I just want to all of our investors to appreciate the incredible work that goes into this. We’ve always tried to be respectful, transparent and honest in this process. I’m looking across the table at Jeff Bornstein; he’s got a six-inch binder. He knows every fact and everything to do with the Company. And I feel great about John Flannery and what he is going to do with the Company and going forward. So, again, I’m sure I’ll see many of the investors over time. But I want to use this as an opportunity to do a shout out for the GE team and what great work they do. Thank you. Great.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Good day.
Executives:
Matthew Cribbins - VP, Investor Communications Jeffrey Immelt - Executive Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Bornstein - CFO and SVP
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays PLC Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Steve Tusa - JP Morgan Chase & Co Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse AG Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Investment Bank Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Welcome to the General Electric First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].My name is Ellen, and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matthew Cribbins:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to GE's First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. Presenting first today is our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; followed by our CFO, Jeff Bornstein. Before we start, I would like to remind you that our earnings release, presentation and supplementals have been available since earlier today on our website at www.ge.com/investor. Please note that some of the statements we are making today are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. And with that, I will turn it over to Jeff Immelt.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Thanks, Matt. GE had a good quarter and a slow growth in a volatile environment. While the resource sector is challenging, we had the strongest Oil & Gas orders in 10 quarters. We saw global growth accelerating, while the U.S. continues to improve. Since the beginning of 2017, I visited China, Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. All are stronger than last year. With orders growth of 10%, we've seen attractive environment for GE overall. EPS was $0.21 for the quarter. Excluding the impact of uncovered restructuring, industrial EPS was up 15% and verticals grew by 20%. Organic revenue was up 7%, our strongest quarter in more than 2 years. Segment operating profit grew by 15% organically, and total industrial profit was up 20%. Margins are expanding, and our cost-out programs are accelerating. Our cash performance was worse than we expected to start the year with CFOA of $400 million and negative industrial CFOA. We had several one-timers and grew working capital on the first quarter, which we expect to turn around in the second quarter and be on plan for the year. We executed on our portfolio goals. The water sale exceeded our expectations and should produce a $2 billion gain and $2 billion of cash. GE Capital has exited PRA supervision, completing its pivot. This is an incredible accomplishment for the team. Two years after we announced our GE Capital strategy, our actions are largely complete. And Baker Hughes is on track for a midyear close. We're off to a strong start and are reconfirming our framework for the year. We're exceeding our goals for organic growth in margins. We expect to hit our goal for $1 billion of structural cost-out. And our plan is to be on track for cash and capital allocation for the year. Orders were very strong in the quarter, up 10%, which was 7% organically. Backlog grew by $3 billion. Equipment had a great quarter with growth of 11%. Services were strong as well with growth of 8%. Pricing was about flat. Orders growth was broad-based. We saw expansion in 6 of 7 segments in 9 of 12 regions. Let me give you a few order highlights that were particularly significant. Power equipment was up 25%. Growth markets were up 27%. Aviation spares grew by 25%. Healthcare equipment was up 10%. Life Sciences grew by 15%. Renewable service doubled. LED orders grew by 42%. We were encouraged that Oil & Gas orders grew by 9%. Global orders grew by 20% behind some very specific initiatives. Orders grew by double digits in 6 of 7 businesses. Highlights include, a big Kazakhstan rail deal; Aviation LEAP quarters of $250 million; a Power Wind in India worth $370 million. Global onshore wind deals were $270 million. Healthcare in China grew by 28%, and mining grew by 16%. Digital orders grew by 7%, including 70% growth in ServiceMax, 60% in Power, 55% in renewables and 41% in Oil & Gas. We continue to reposition our legacy IT businesses for growth in the future. We signed global deals at NEC, Bridgestone, South32 and Deutsche Bank. We established an alliance with China Telecom to bring Predix to China. We expect strong orders to accelerate through the year. So this start reinforces our organic growth goal of 3% to 5% for 2017. Organic revenue growth of 7% was ahead of expectations. Revenue strength was broad-based with 6 of 7 segments having positive organic growth. The old power businesses, as what you see as power and renewables, was exceptionally strong with both growing 18%. And Aviation grew by 8%. Our growth initiatives are paying off. Globalization is a major driver with growth market revenue expanding by 10%, where India was up 27%, Middle East up 12% and Africa up 77%. Services growth was up 8%, and 6 of 7 businesses expanded in the quarter. This was led by Aviation, up 18%, and repowering drove 84% growth in renewables. New products also added to growth. We finished the quarter with 30H turbines in backlog and 12,200 LEAP engine orders and commitments. Healthcare imaging orders in U.S. grew by 13% behind excellent new products. Digital revenue grew by 16%, led by power, oil and gas and renewables. The additional growth outside verticals doubled in the quarter. GE Store continues to work GE Capital's supported $2.2 billion of industrial orders and GE2GE orders grew substantially. Margins were also a good story. Industrial operating profit margins grew by 130 basis points with gross margins expanding by 90 basis points. Segment margins grew by 110 basis points. Efficiency was driven by a value gap, productivity and Digital Thread. This more than offset headwinds in mix. Corporate cost are ahead of plan, and we saw margin growth in both equipment and services. We're on track to reduce structural cost by $1 billion for the year. In the quarter, costs were down $76 million and $200 million lower than our original $500 million cost-out plan. We expect this to accelerate during the year. We invested $1 billion restructuring in the quarter. And for the year, we expect gains in restructuring to offset. We remain committed for $1 billion of cost out in '17 and $1 billion of cost out into '18. On cash, we have CFOA of $400 million. This included a dividend from GE Capital of $2 billion. Industrial CFOA was a negative $1.6 billion. There's no change to our 2017 framework of total CFOA of $18 billion to $21 billion and industrial CFOA of $12 billion to $14 billion. We built working capital in the quarter to support growth, and we're adjusting to a different profile with Alstom. And we're impacted by several one-timers. Cash is lumpy, and we expect to have a strong second quarter. I've asked Jeff to give you a little bit more context on cash flow in the next page. We received an additional $2 billion dividend from GE Capital on April, bringing the year-to-date total to $4 billion against the plan of $6 billion to $7 billion for the year, so a good start. Cash ended the quarter at $7.9 billion. We paid $2.1 billion of dividends and had $2.3 billion of buyback for a total of $4.4 billion return to shareholders. And with that, I'll turn it over to Jeff to give you more details on cash and operations.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Thanks, Jeff. As Jeff said, we had a strong quarter on orders, revenues and margins. However, our industrial CFOA was at $1.6 billion usage of cash, about $1 billion below our expectations. We expect to see most of this come back over the remainder of the year, and we see no change for our outlook for the year of $12 billion to $14 billion of industrial CFOA. Walking the left side of the page. Industrial net income plus depreciation in the quarter was $1.5 billion. Working capital was a use of $1.3 billion. This was about $700 million higher usage than our expectation. The miss was mainly driven by power and renewables, partially offset by better performance in our Healthcare business. Receivables was a benefit of $200 million, about $400 million less than our plan. Operationally, we've seen improvement in collections. However, we didn't collect on a number of accounts in the quarter that we expected to. In Aviation, which historically has not had issues with past dues, we missed by about $200 million on 5 customer accounts, which will clear in the second quarter with no issue. In Power, we didn't collect on several delinquent accounts in top regions around the world, but we expect to collect these throughout the rest of the year, including in the second quarter. Inventory was a use of $800 million, about $100 million worse than we expected. Most of the businesses were right on the plan. The miss was driven by softness in the U.S. Healthcare market, particularly around ultrasound and LCS. But we expect to work off this inventory over the remainder of the year. Payables were a use of $400 million, roughly as we expected. This was driven by payments of fourth quarter purchases that were significantly higher than the new volume added in the first quarter. And we see this dynamic mostly every year in the first quarter. Progress collections was a use of $300 million. This is primarily driven by 2 things. First, it was the impact of renewables from shipping equipment in the first quarter following the buildup of progress collections from safe harbor wind turbines in fourth quarter. Secondly, we had several large orders in the quarter that did not reach financial closure. This includes large orders in Energy Connections in Iraq, a power deal in Algeria and a big transportation transaction in Angola. We expect these deals to close in the second and third quarter. Contract assets were a use of $1.9 billion. This was $300 million worse than expected. Of the $1.9 billion, $500 million was from our long-term equipment contract, where the timing of our $1 billion revenue recognition milestones differ. This will catch up throughout the year as we execute against the contract. The remaining $1.4 billion is our long-term service agreements. There were 2 pieces to this. $600 million is related to service contracts where we've incurred cost and booked the revenue, but haven't yet billed the customer. We expect this to partly come back over the year as we see higher asset utilization in Power and Aviation. And we've seen these similar trends in the prior years. The other $800 million are contract adjustments driven by better cost performance in park light, primarily driven by Power And Aviation. Versus expectations, the $300 million of lower cash on contract assets is driven by $200 million of long-term equipment contracts that we expect to come back throughout the year, and the $100 million from services contract adjustments I just walked through, which will come back over the remaining life of those contracts as we build the utilization. In total, we're about $1 billion off our first quarter plan, but we'll recover the vast majority over the second to the fourth quarter. In the first half of 2016, we delivered $400 million of CFOA. For 2017, we expect significantly stronger cash performance in the second quarter with sequential improvement throughout the year. Our total year plan is $12 billion to $14 billion. That's driven by an increase in net income plus depreciation. And we expect to see a benefit from working capital similar to last year's benefit. Contract assets will be similar impact as 2016. And other cash flows will be lower cash usage this year, largely driven by the absence of onetime [indiscernible] payment in 2016. So with that, I'll move on to consolidated results. Revenues were $27.7 billion, down 1% in the quarter. Industrial revenues were flat at $25 billion. As you can see on the right side of the page, the industrial segments were up 1% on a reported basis. Organically, industrial segment revenue was up 7%, affected by the Appliance disposition. Industrial operating plus vertical EPS was $0.21, flat with prior year. Excluding gains in restructuring, which was a $0.03 headwind versus the first quarter of last year, industrial operating verticals EPS was up 12%. Operating EPS was $0.14 in the quarter, up from $0.06 in the first quarter of last year. This incorporates other continuing GE Capital activity, including excess debt headquarter runoff costs that I'll cover separately on the capital page. Continuing EPS of $0.10 includes the impact of nonoperating pension. And net EPS of $0.07 includes discontinued operations. The total disc ops impact was a negative $0.03 in the quarter, driven by GE Capital exits that we executed in the quarter. The GE tax rate was 15%, in line with our total year mid-teens guidance. The GE Capital tax rate was favorable, reflecting a tax benefit on a pretax continuing loss. On the right side of the segment results, as I mentioned, Industrial segment revenues were up 1% on a reported basis and up 7% organically. 6 of the 7 businesses were positive organically with Power and Renewables up double digits. Industrial segment op profit was up 9%. And Industrial up profit, which includes corporate operating cost, was up 11%. On the bottom of the page, as I mentioned earlier, industrial operating income plus vertical EPS was $0.21, up 12%, excluding gains in restructuring with industrial operating EPS up 15% on the same basis. Included in the $0.21 was $0.08 of uncovered restructuring that I'll go through on the next page. So next on Industrial and other items in the quarter. As I said, we had $0.08 of charges related to industrial restructuring and other items that we're taken at corporate. Charges were $1 billion on a pretax basis with more than $300 million of Alstom synergy investments primarily related to power in Europe. We also made significant investments in corporate, Oil & Gas, Energy Connections & Lighting and Healthcare on the quarter. Restructuring charges totaled about $800 million, and BD charges were approximately $200 million related to Baker Hughes, the water disposition, the Industrial Solutions disposition and the digital acquisition. There were no gains in the quarter. For the year, we expect about $0.25 of restructuring to offset by $0.25 of gains from water and Industrial Solutions dispositions. We are targeting a third quarter close for the water transaction and a fourth quarter close for the Industrial Solutions transaction. For the second quarter, we expect to do about $0.07 of restructuring with no offsetting gains. Next, I'll cover the segments. I'll start with the Power businesses. Power orders of $6.1 billion were up 8%, with equipment higher by 25% and services flat. Equipment growth of 25% was driven by Gas Power Systems up 12% and steam power systems up almost 100%. Gas Power Systems was driven by higher arrow, up 20 units, and 10 more HRSGs versus last year. Gas turbine orders were down 13 units, 12 versus 25. We had orders for 2H units, including our first H in China. We have 30H units in backlog and expect to ship 23 Hs in 2017. Steam power systems recorded orders totaling $591 million, up almost 100%, primarily driven by 2 projects for which the business will provide coal-fired turbine islands. These orders were taken by an existing JV within Alstom, which we took majority control of in the quarter. Service orders were flat. Total orders for upgrades were up 34%, but the AGPs were down 5 units, 20 versus 25 a year ago. Offsetting upgrade growth was lower transactional services in Europe and the Middle East and lower new unit installation volume. Revenues of $6.1 billion were higher by 17%, with equipment revenue growing 59% and services revenue flat. Equipment revenue growth was driven by higher deliveries of gas turbines, HRSG and arrow units. We shipped 20 gas turbines versus 13 a year ago. In addition, we shipped 24 HRSGs versus 1 and 11 arrow units versus 5 compared with last year. H shipments were essentially flat at 4 units. Service revenues were flat despite strong upgrade regrowth, up 26%, including lower AGPs of 21 versus 27. Upgrade growth was offset by lower boilers service volume in North America and a fewer major outages in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Power earned just under $800 million operating profit, up 39%. Performance was principally driven by cost productivity and equipment volume, offset partly by mix of equipment versus service. Gas Power Systems and steam-powered systems drove most of the improvement in profitability. Power had a good quarter, driving both equipment orders and equipment profitability. The business is intensely focused on structural cost and delivering $500 million of cost out for the year. Power had a very strong organic growth in the quarter on higher arrow turbines and higher gas turbine shipments, driving organic growth up 18%. Our view for the year of mid-single-digit order book unit growth has not changed. Power is on track for 100 to 105 gas turbines in 2017 and expect to deliver the upgrade growth, including 155 to 165 AGPs. No change to the outlook that the business provided in the March Investor Meeting. On Renewables, the business had a solid quarter. Orders of $2.1 billion grew 8%, with onshore wind higher by 4% and hydro orders up 39%. Onshore wind orders were up on $167 million of repower commitments versus none last year. The strength in repower was partially offset by lower wind turbine orders, down 8%. We took orders for 589 units versus 716 units last year, down 18%, but the megawatts for the units order grew by 3%. The lower unit cost was driven by the U.S., which down 61% after a very strong fourth quarter, partially offset by a very strong international growth, up almost double. The wind market is very competitive with pressure on price, both in U.S. and globally. Hydro secured a few large equipment orders in Turkey and Nigeria for 8 Francis turbines. Backlog grew 8% year-over-year to $13.4 billion. Renewables revenue of $2 billion grew 22%, driven by onshore wind up 11% and hydro up 2x. Onshore wind growth was largely driven by repowering deliveries. Wind turbine shipments were down 15%, 567 turbines versus 668 a year ago. However, the megawatts that we shipped were essentially flat on the larger turbines. Operating profit grew 29% in the quarter, driven by cost-out actions on the 2-megawatt NPI, positive value gap and repowering for volume, partially offset by higher NPI spend on the new 3-megawatt turbine. Margins expanded 20 basis points in the quarter. The business made good progress on the 2.x megawatt NPI unit cost, but will require additional cost actions given the competitiveness in the market. We are early in the learning curve and on the cost-out processes on the 3-megawatt NPI. We closed the LM acquisition this week, and the vertical integration will enhance the business ability to drive cost performance and growth. In Aviation, before I discuss the first quarter results for the business, I want to make you aware of a change we've made to how we report our aviation spares rate. Historically, we provided an all-in spares rate that included external shipments of spares, spares using time and material shop visits and spares consumed in shop visits for our engines under long-term service agreements. Going forward, our spares rate will only include externally shipped spares and spares used in time and material shop visits. Over the past several years, the strong growth in our long-term services agreements and the associated shop visits has driven the percentage of spares used in LTSA to be a much greater proportion of the historical order and sales rate. These spares are also part of the LTSA billing and are already accounted for in revenues. We believe the new spares rate provides investors with more visibility to transactional market dynamics. Consumption of spares in long-term service agreements can be impacted by customer fleet management, optimization shop visits over the life of the contract over various other reasons. Starting with the first quarter of '17, we will report only a ship rate for spares on this new basis as the orders and shipments are virtually the same. This change does not impact any reported financial operation. Historical information for spares rate on the new basis, as well as the old mapping, are included in the supplemental presentation material. Moving to Aviation's first quarter performance. The business continues to execute well on a strong market. Global revenue passenger kilometers grew 7% year-to-date February, with strength in both domestic and international routes. Air freight volumes increased 7.2% until February. Orders in the quarter were $7.4 billion with equipment up 5%. Commercial engine orders were up 3% on higher LEAP and GEnx, partially offset by lower GE90 and CF6 orders. $1.7 billion of new commercial engine orders included $932 million for LEAP, $206 million for CF34, $138 million for GE90 and $166 million of GEnx orders. CFM orders were also up 13% to $186 million. Military equipment orders of $169 million were down 46%, driven by no repeat of a large Black Hawk T700 armory order from last year. Service orders grew 17%. Commercial service orders were higher by 18% with CSA growth of 20% and the spares ADOR of $21.7 million a day was up 25% on the new basis. Military service orders were up 40% at $610 million on increased spare parts. Backlog finished the quarter at $158 billion, up 3%. The equipment backlog of $33 billion, down 5%, and service backlog of $125 billion ended up 5%. Revenues grew 9% in the quarter to $6.8 billion. Equipment revenues were down 2%, driven by military down 47% on lower shipments, partially offset by commercial growth of 12%. Commercial engine deliveries were down 7%. However, revenue was up driven by increased mix to higher-value GEnx and LEAP engines. Service revenues were up 17%, driven by commercial spares rate of $21.7 million a day, up 25%. Again, the same as the [indiscernible] order rate. Op profit in the quarter totaled $1.7 billion, up 10%, primarily driven by favorable price, volume and cost productivity, partly offset by a negative impact of 81 LEAP shipments versus 0 last year. Margins expanded 50 basis points in the quarter. Demand for the LEAP engine continues to be strong with over $900 million of orders booked in the quarter. The reliability and performance of spec of the 41 aircraft line with LEAP today has been excellent. The business is generating strong productivity to offset the negative mix impact of LEAP and is on track to report 2017 margin rates about flat with last year on continuing cost on programs. We will continue to ramp production to an expected 450 to 500 LEAP shipments for the year. The Oil & Gas environment has been improving led by increased activity in the North American onshore market. Rig count was up 70% versus prior year and up 25% from the fourth quarter of last year and has increased sequentially each of the last 3 quarters. External forecast continues to be slightly more positive on 2017 upstream spending, particularly among independents. The timing of recovery will vary by segment, and a large degree of uncertainty remains. Crude inventory remained at a 5-year highs, and markets are closely watching OPEC output work compliance. Offshore activity remains weak. Before I get into the dynamics of the quarter, just one item regarding Oil & Gas subsegment reporting. We combined the turbomachinery and downstream technology businesses, so I'll talk to the performance of those businesses on a combined basis. Orders for Oil & Gas of $2.6 billion were higher by 7% with equipment orders growing 30%. Every segment saw higher equipment orders. Turbomachinery and downstream grew 33%, surface up 10% and subsea up 52%. The equipment orders performance is a positive sign that growth is off a very low base. Service orders were down 2%, but flat organically. Turbomachinery and downstream was down 2%, digital solutions was down 3%, surface down 8% and subsea down 18%. Backlog ended the quarter at $20.4 billion, down 10% versus last year. Equipment backlog was down 32%, but service backlog actually grew 4%. Revenues in the quarter of $3 billion were down 9%. Equipment revenues were down 20% driven by subsea, down 29%, turbomachinery and downstream down 19% and surface down 2%. Service revenues were flat with turbomachinery and downstream up 13% and digital solutions up 1%, offset by subsea down 36% and surface down 14%. Operating profit of $207 million was lower by 33%, primarily driven by lower price and volume, partially offset by cost-out. The first half of '17 remains very challenging for the business. Despite positive equipment orders performance this quarter, our longer cycle equipment businesses in turbomachinery, downstream and subsea will lag the recovery on onshore. The team is focused on capturing growth opportunities and rebuilding its backlog. We continue to expect increased activity in our surface, digital solutions and transactional service businesses as we move into the second half of the year. The Baker Hughes deal remains on track to close midyear. We filed the draft S-4 with the SEC and continue to work with global regulators. Both the GE Oil & Gas and Baker Hughes team -- integration teams are making great progress toward the closing. Next up is Healthcare. Our Healthcare business had a solid quarter. Orders grew 7% versus last year and were up 8% on an organic basis. Geographically, organic orders grew 2% in the U.S., 5% in Europe and 21% in emerging markets. Emerging market growth was led by China, up 28%; the Middle East up 16%; and Latin America up 14%. On a product line basis, Healthcare Systems orders grew 5%, 6% organically, driven by growth in ultrasound up 10%, and imaging products up 12% with broad-based growth in MR and CT as well as mammo on successful NPI launches. Growth in HCS and ultrasound was partially offset by Life Care Solutions, which was down 8%, primarily driven by the U.S. general market uncertainty around reform. Life Science grew orders 15%, led by bioprocess up 25% and core imaging up 8%. Bioprocess growth was driven by an order for our QBO product in the quarter. Revenues in the quarter grew 3%, both on a reported and organic basis. Healthcare Systems revenues were higher by 3% versus last year, and Life Sciences revenue grew by 5%. Operating profit of $643 million was up 2% reported, but higher by 6% organically, driven by volume and productivity, partially offset by negative price and program and investments. FX was a $32 million profit drag in the quarter. Margins contracted 10 basis points on a reported basis, but were up 50 basis points, excluding the impact of foreign exchange. The business continues to execute well on new product introductions and driving cost productivity. Healthcare is targeting further product cost-out in line with the 2016 performance they delivered. They are focused on driving more competitors and sourcing, increasing the number of building factories and over 300 cost-out engineers dedicated to product competitiveness. Despite some uncertainty in the shorter cycle, lower ticket segment of the U.S. market around reforms, we believe the broad healthcare market supports our view of low to mid-single-digit organic revenue growth for the year. Next is transportation. Domestic market dynamics were slightly more positive, building on the modest improvement we saw in the fourth quarter. North American carload volume was up 4.4% in the quarter, driven by 2.2% growth in the intermodal carload space and 6.6% growth in commodity carload. Commodity carload growth was primarily driven by coal, which was up 15%, and agriculture higher by 4%. Petroleum continued its weakness, down 6%. In addition, GE parked locos were down 24% from last year and down 11% from year-end. Although these signs of improvement are important, they're off a weak base and, as of yet, have not signaled a consistent trend. Transportation orders for the quarter totaled $1.1 billion, up 70%. Equipment orders of $526 million were higher by 500%. We received orders for 37 locos and over 100 international kits versus no orders in the first quarter of last year. The 37 loco orders included 24 locos for North America. This is the first North American Tier 4 Class 1 order we've taken since 2014. Mining equipment orders were also higher. We received orders for 115 mining wheels versus 84 last year. Service orders of $582 million were up 3%. Backlog finished at $20 billion, down 5% versus last year, driven by equipment down 27%, partly offset by services up 4%. Revenues in the quarter were higher by 6%, with equipment up 15% and services down 1%. Locomotive deliveries were about flat year-over-year at 157 with a higher mix in international locos. North American locomotives were down 33%, while international locomotive shipments grew 159% driven by deliveries in Pakistan and South Africa. Op profit of $156 million was down 5% on unfavorable mix and higher digital investment, partially offset by cost productivity. No change to the outlook we shared with you in December. 2017 will be a challenging year with locomotive shipments likely down close to 50%, operating profit down double digits and pressure on margin run rates. The business continues to drive structural cost out as well as building their international backlog. Next on Energy Connections & Lighting. Orders for the segment totaled $2.6 billion, which were down 2%. Energy Connection orders of $2.4 billion were down 12%, driven by Power Conversion down 36% and Grid down 8%, partially offset by Industrial Solutions, which grew 11% in the quarter. Power Conversion performance was driven by continued pressure in Oil & Gas and no repeat of a large inverter order in the first quarter of last year. Grid's first quarter performance was impacted by orders delays in the Middle East that will close in the second quarter, specifically a large order in Iraq. Industrial Solutions, which was up 11%, outperformed versus the NEMA market, which was up an estimated 3% in the quarter. Our current platform had orders in the quarters totaling $243 million. Revenues for Energy Connections grew 1% reported and 4% organically. Grid grew 19%, partly offset by Industrial Solutions down 2% and Power Conversion down 26% organically. Current and lighting revenues were down 11% with current growing 3% and legacy business increasing by 22% as we exit markets and experience lower demand for older technology. Operating profit in the quarter of $28 million was substantially higher versus last year, driven by structural cost actions. Energy Connections earned $20 million, and current and lighting earned $8 million. No change in the 2017 outlook. We expect better execution from these businesses with double-digit profit growth for the year. We expect divestiture of Industrial Solutions to happen late in the year. Finally, I'll cover GE Capital. The verticals earned $535 million in the quarter, up 8% from the prior year, driven principally by lower impairments, higher tax benefits, partially offset by lower gain. GE cash, energy finance and industrial finance all had strong quarters, and overall portfolio quality remains stable. In the first quarter, the verticals funded $1.8 billion of unbooked volume and enabled $2.2 billion of industrial orders. Other continuing operations generated a $582 million loss in the quarter, driven by excess interest expense, restructuring cost related to portfolio transformation and headquarters operating cost. As I've said in the past, these costs will continue to come down as excess debt matures and we rightsize the organization. Versus the first quarter last year, other continuing cost are down $800 million, driven by these lower excess debt cost, non-repeat of cost associated with both the first quarter of '16 hybrid tender offer and the preferred equity exchange. In addition, we expect incremental tax benefits associated with the completion of the GE Capital restructuring towards the second half of the year. Discontinued operations generated $242 million loss, driven by exit plan-related items and operating cost. Overall, GE capital reported a net loss of $290 million. We ended the quarter with $167 billion of assets, including $43 billion of liquidity. Assets were down $16 billion from year-end. GE Capital closed on $7 billion of transactions in the quarter, including the sale of our French consumer finance platform and our Hyundai JV. In total, $198 billion has been actioned since April of 2015, $263 billion, including the spinoff of Synchrony. All major sales activity related to GE Capital exit plan is now complete. $8 billion of assets remaining will largely be runoff over the next 12 to 18 months. As a result of this, as of March 30, GE Capital's non-U.S. activities are no longer subject to consolidated supervision by the U.K.'s PRA. GE Capital paid $2 billion of dividends during the quarter and an additional $2 billion this week. We remain on track for $6 billion to $7 billion of dividends for the total year. Overall, the GE Capital team delivered a strong performance from the verticals, while executing on all aspects of our exit plan. And with that, I'll turn it back to Jeff.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Thanks, Jeff. We are reconfirming our 2017 operating framework and we should meet all of our goals for operating EPS. We're off to a good start on organic growth and margins. The goals for industrial operating profit and structural cost-out are in sight. Despite a slow start, we plan to hit $12 billion to $14 billion of industrial CFOA for the year. We believe that capital dividend should be $6 billion to $7 billion for the year. Dispositions are on track. We're on track to return $19 billion to $21 billion to investors through dividend and buyback. So to recap, we had 10% orders growth, 7% organic growth, 130 basis points of margin expansion and 20% organic industrial operating profit growth, and a commitment to hit CFOA for the year. So this is a good start. Matt, now for some questions.
Matthew Cribbins:
Thanks, Jeff. With that, let's open it up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. The first question is from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Davis:
I wanted to talk about the cadence of the cost out. I'd get to like a $230 million number in 1Q. I think that's what you said. I would assume, if you did that every quarter, you get to your $2 billion pretty -- on a kind of steady cadence. But the point is you commented that, that would ramp a little bit faster through the year. So how do you think about that $2 billion? Is that something that comes out steady over 2 years? Or is that something where you can front-end load a fair amount of it?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes, okay.
Scott Davis:
And just on that, if you can give a little bit of color on how much of that cost-out is really from last year's restructuring versus new cost initiatives.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes. So what we're talking about is structural cost or base cost, so fixed cost exclusive of variable cost. We talked about $2 billion of cost out, $1 billion each in '17 and '18. So the goal this year is to take $1 billion of that base cost out. If you go to the supplement, we do a walk-through in the first quarter. So in the first quarter, those costs year-over-year were down about $75 million. Now beneath that, we took out over $375 million of those costs. And that was partly offset by a couple hundred million more as we expected a higher digital spend year-over-year and just wage inflation of about $80 million. So good underlying performance there. It's going to accelerate over the year because we take an enormous number of actions here in the first quarter across all of the businesses and corporate. We talked about the effort around horizontal IT, which, we think, is worth $250 million in the year, what we just announced around the tax -- corporate tax team and that transition to PWC. We've kind of taken a number of headcount actions, both at corporate and across the businesses here in the first quarter. So we expect that to grow over the course of the year. The other reference points I'd give you is when we talk to the outlook meeting, we talked about 500 -- a goal of $500 million with which we had $1.7 billion kind of pipeline against. Against that original plan, the first quarter were $200 million better than that original plan, so that gives us confidence that we're on track for the higher plan of $1 billion for the year. So I think you'll continue to see a better performance here in the second quarter. And then I think you'll see a real acceleration in the second half of the year. To answer your question on restructuring from prior year, so within this bucket of cost, I said we took out $375 million before digital and the effect of EOP -- effect on wages. About $174 million of that $375 million was from prior-year restructuring actions.
Jeffrey Immelt:
But I would say, Scott, having a good 130 basis point of margin with a lot of the structural cost totally kick in makes us feel good on the 100 basis point goal for the year on margins.
Scott Davis:
Right. And I know you're focused on the base fixed cost. On the variable cost, how does that play into the next several quarters?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
So as we talked about -- let's go back to what we said at outlook. At outlook, we talked about a goal of 100 basis points of margin improvement. And we said 50 of that was going to come from everything we're doing around restructuring, et cetera. Then the incremental cost plan was going to deliver the next 50 basis points. If you look at gross margins in the quarter, we were better by 90 basis points. So gross margins is all products and service cost. So that's a good down payment against delivering the total year margin.
Jeffrey Immelt:
And I would say, again, on gross margin, Scott, we built in kind of a negative mix, vis-à-vis, the LEAP and things like that. And we still can more than offset that with other strong programs we've got in the company.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Could we just explore a little more what's going on in Alstom? There was a comment about you're taking a different profile there. It was unclear what you meant by that. And it also sounds like one of the JVs got consolidated in the quarter.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes. Expand on your first -- I'm not sure I understood your first question, Jeff. Okay. So let me just talk about the JV, and then I'll let Jeff talk about the first part of your question. When we did the Alstom acquisition, as part of that, we acquired an interest in the JV in the steam space in India. And we were a minority shareholder. So we spent a little bit of -- an insignificant amount of money to actually gain control of ship -- or control of that JV in India. So in the steam space, it's around steam equipment. It largely services India.
Jeffrey Immelt:
And then Jeff, the comment I made is the profile of Alstom was always very highly skewed towards their last quarter. It's going to take a while to get that normalized on the kind of the GE time frame just based on some of the EPC work and project work they do. So that was the comment that I made.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes. I don't think that the profile is materially different than our own business. We have a lot of long-term contracts, 81 long contracts that's [indiscernible] we're really building against those here in the first quarter. Those will hit billing milestones over the course of the year. And like our own equipment businesses, the Alstom equipment businesses will improve on cash performance throughout the year.
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
So obviously, order growth inflected pretty possibly in the quarter. And we know you have your management incentives in line toward delivering significant cash flow. So why isn't cash better? Why not maybe you're going to sacrifice some orders from difficult customers if you have to for better cash or maybe pressure suppliers even harder to generate more cash? I guess, the question I'm trying to figure out is whether your issues are transient and cyclical, which, we think, they are or sometimes, people think they're structural, especially in Power. How would you answer that question?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Well, when you look the first quarter performance, we talked about being $1 billion lower than our expectations, $700 million of that in working capital. And within that $700 million, $400 million really is related to receivables. Our receivables performance actually was pretty good in the quarter. Our collection, in fact, was better year-over-year. We did factor $1.3 billion last versus the first quarter of last year, but we expected to do that. It was really around the accounts I talked about. In Aviation, which we had a couple of hundred million of past dues that we don't normally experience in Aviation, those are already clearing here in the second quarter. And then some big past dues in the Middle East in our power business that are on schedule. They -- we will collect the majority what we expect to collect in the first quarter. We'll do that in the second quarter. Then we had a small kind of $100 million kind of miss in inventory versus our own expectations. Interestingly, across most of the businesses hit their inventory expectation. And our inventory performance year-over-year was $700 million better than the first quarter of last year. That's important because when we think about our working capital, we talked about $3 billion-plus of working capital improvement in the year to get to $12 billion to $14 billion, a big part of that is driven by inventory. Last year, we're really helped by progress in AP. This year, it's about receivables and inventory. So getting off to a $700 million better outcome year-over-year on inventory is good. But it was $100 million less than we thought it would be and that was all about Healthcare in North America. And that will liquidate -- that's mostly timing around sales and orders. So we're not too concerned about that. And then progress, there's a couple hundred million light versus what we expected. It was a $300 million use in the quarter. A big part of what drove that was we took enormous amounts of progress in the fourth quarter of last year in Renewables around U.S. onshore wind and people getting ahead of the PTC. We -- now we're shipping against that progress. So we're liquidating the progress. We collected the cash fourth quarter. Now we're revenue recognition -- we're rev rec-ing and shipping those units. And the majority of that cash was collected last year. Having said that, we have some really big orders, particularly in the Middle East, that we thought we're going to get to financial close in the first quarter. It looks like that most those will get to financial close in the second quarter. I talked about earlier the big grid order in Iraq. I think we feel really good about that. i think next week, we're likely going to announce, which is -- was part of this progress news the biggest service deal in the history of our power services business in the Middle East. A really phenomenal transaction. We thought it was going to close a couple of weeks early. It's going to close next week, we believe. So we feel good about that. And then some progress we expect to collect out of West Africa, which will happen in the second quarter. So we were $1 billion off in those buckets versus what we expected. I think we feel good about how we move from where we are today to the $12 billion to $14 billion we talked about for the year. So if you just go back, I'm just trying to give you a framework on how to think about it. Listen, we committed to $17.2 billion of pretax operating profit. So using that as a baseline, from here, we see $12 billion-plus of net income plus depreciation between the second and fourth quarter. We expect to generate about $4.5 billion roughly of working capital improvements 2Q through 4Q. That's about on par with what we did in 2016. It's within $100 million to $200 million of what we actually did execute in 2016. Again, inventory, a big piece of that. We expect contract assets to be a drag here and the next 3 quarters of about $2 billion. For the total year, that would put us at about $3.9 billion. That is equivalent to what contract assets did in 2016. So at the moment, we're not planning anything better or worse. And then in other operating cash, which we give you a lot more disclosure in the K, we see that as a positive for the year, largely because we had the long-term incentive plan payout last year. We won't have that this year. And that's how we get to a framework of $12 billion to $14 billion. We're also looking for some of that big base cost structure we're taking out to fall through the cash as well. So we're taking $1 billion of cash. That should be virtually all cash as well. It will show up in the net income plus depreciation line. So that's a little bit of a cash hedge here on execution for the year.
Operator:
The next question is from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
So when you look at the noncash earnings from contract assets, how is that reported in the margin bridge? And then on the restructuring, with the $800 million of restructuring and other, is there anything in there that's not pure payback kind of headcount restructuring? And if so, what's the volume of that? I think you had a disclosure in your 10-K around that -- around the breakout of restructuring.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Well, no, Steve, the $800 million of restructuring in the quarter is just that. It's restructuring. So it's projects with paybacks. So -- and they are very much structured. When I say structure, I mean headcount and site capacity-related. So I'll give you some detail around it. $800 million of restructuring. About $500 million of that is really related to workforce capacity, okay, $500 million of $800 million. We got about $300 million, roughly, that's associated with plant capacity, consolidating footprint, et cetera. And then on -- the balance to get to $1 billion charge in the quarter is $200 million of BD. And that's really all Baker Hughes, water, industrial systems and some of the digital acquisitions we closed in the quarter. So to answer your question, $800 million is all investment with payback. Ask your first part of your question again.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Okay. It's on the contracts.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes. So contracts in the quarter are -- so on the CSA contracts, which is, I think, what you're talking about, CSA contracts in the quarter were up $1.4 billion year-over-year. $800 million of that increase was associated with contract updates, okay? And that's versus $500 million a year ago. So it's higher by $266 million year-over-year. Of the about $300 million, it's up year-over-year, a little more than half of that is in power. And most of that is associated with updates of part cost when we change standards every year. So for the contracts that were under review in the first quarter, if we change the standard on the part cost and deliver against that contract for the future, we did that update. And then there's a small update for escalation that's mostly around our Aviation business. We update it once a year on escalation within the service contract. That part of long-term contracts that are revenues versus billing, so outside of contract updates was $600 million in the first quarter. And that's really where we've incurred shop visits, outages. We've incurred cost against those service contracts ahead of actually billing the hours or the events associated with it. So that's mostly timing. And some of that will come back over the course of the year, as we actually bill against the utilization or bill against an outage or a shop visit. So I would say that's mostly timing. That's the $1.4 billion increase that you see in contracts year-over-year.
Operator:
The next question is from Julian Mitchell with Crédit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell:
Just one other quick question on the -- back to the cash flow. So Jeff Bornstein, I think you'd called out that $400 million of industrial CFOA in the first half of last year. Was the implication that we should assume the first half of this year is around the same level? And then also, my follow-up would just be on the contract assets piece. You've had outflows last year of about $4 billion in cash. It's about $4 billion out this year. Before that, in 2014 and '15, it was more like $1.5 billion to $2 billion per year. So I just wondered, with GE today, as you look out beyond this year, what's the normalized contract assets cash outflows we should expect annually?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
So let me take part 2 first. So yes, we expect the contract drag on cash flow for the year to be roughly the same, '16 versus '17, as you said, at about $3.9 billion. I think you got a number phenomena that's going on. We're investing like crazy in productivity and cost-out. Whether that's additive, value-engineering, driving these plant closures, restructuring, all of this finds its way into lower cost. When we get lower cost, the cost to execute against our contracts improves. And when they improve, the accounting has to account for that and where it changes our view on the ultimate profitability of these contracts. That's one method in where it's hugely focused on that. And I think you want to focus on to that, that's all future cash, future economics, et cetera, on a go-forward basis. We're not pulling future profit for it. That is not what we're doing. We're just restating what -- where we are in the contract from inception to date. The second part is where the long-term service agreements that protect our install base, and our penetration continues to improve. When you look at the attach rate on the H turbine, on the LEAP engine, the population and our backlog around this contract is growing substantially and has over the last number of years. And so there's a volume factor associated with it as well. What was the first part?
Jeffrey Immelt:
I think on the -- I think it's the half we expect CFOA to be roughly comparable...
Jeffrey Bornstein:
So yes. What I would say on the half, we think CFOA is going to be sequentially much better in the second quarter than the first. And we would expect year-over-year CFOA to be better to the half, equal or better to the half.
Operator:
And the next question is from Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
So power equipment orders up 25% in the quarter when gas turbines were down about 50%. I mean, it seems to support this shift you've been talking about from gas turbine sales to power island sales and the expanded scope. You also have pretty easy comps in Alstom. So I'm just -- I just want a little color on the sustainability of that kind of equipment order strength in power despite kind of a weaker gas turbine outlook.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Look, I think, Shannon, we look at the total gas turbine market probably being roughly flat year-over-year. We do think this increase content is kind of here to stay. So it's our expectation that, that continues through the year. And then I think, at the end of the day, we've got a decent competitive position in steam. We don't have any false expectations about that market, but we will pick up some orders there as well.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Just to give you a little bit of color. So -- and I talked about it earlier. We laid a 2 big steam turbine island orders in the quarter, which is usually positive. We were much stronger on arrow units in orders in the quarter. We were up 20 year-over-year on arrow derivatives. And we took 10 more HRSG orders out of Alstom in the quarter than we did a year ago. And as you mentioned, we're down 13 gas turbines. So a little broader strength in just about gas turbine.
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question in terms of progression of organic growth through the year, how much of first quarter growth was pulled from the fourth quarter '16 shortfall and whether any orders or revenues pull from the second quarter and the rest of the year?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Again, certainly, there was going to be some spillover from Q4 into Q1. I still think 3% to 5% is the right way to peg the year. We're encouraged about how the first quarter started. And I would say, Andrew, business outside the U.S. is incrementally better than we had expected, I think, when we lined up the year. So I think there's some macro drivers that are also important in terms of our ability to capitalize on the year. And then I think 10% orders growth is a nice bellwether for investors to reinforce, I think, what our guidance is for 2017.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
The only thing I'd add to that, Andrew, is at year-end, we talked about power, that we had some short ships as we expect at gas turbines, both arrows and units. We expect -- as we said on the call, we expect those to close here in 2017. We think those are good projects. Those did not close in the first quarter. So to answer your question, the orders performance you saw on the first quarter, particularly around power that we talked about from year-end, those units are not in the first quarter.
Operator:
That was our final question. I'll turn it back to you, Matt, for any closing remarks.
Matthew Cribbins:
Thank you. The replay of today's call will be available this afternoon on our Investor website. We remind you that next Wednesday, we'll be holding our Annual Shareholder Meeting in Nashville, North Carolina. And Jeff, you're going to speak at EPG Conference on May 20. With that, Jeff?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Great, Matt. And I would just spike out, I think people were very encouraged by first quarter performance, 10% orders growth, 7% organic, 130 basis points of margin. I think a solid cash profile for the year. So I think, Matt, off to a great start. I think very encouraged by 2017.
Matthew Cribbins:
Great. Thanks for joining today.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matt Cribbins - VP Investor Communications Jeff Immelt - Chairman and CEO Jeff Bornstein - SVP and CFO
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Steven Winoker - Bernstein Steve Tusa - JP Morgan Andrew Kaplowitz - Citi Shannon O’Callaghan - UBS Andrew Obin - Bank of America
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Ellen, and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matt Cribbins:
Hello everyone and welcome GE’s fourth quarter 2016 earnings call. Presenting first today is our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt followed by our CFO, Jeff Bornstein. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our earnings release, presentation, and supplemental have been available since earlier today on our Investor website at www.ge.com/investor. Also some of the statements we are making today are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. And now, I would like to turn the call over to Jeff Immelt.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks, Matt. GE executed well in a slow growth and volatile environment. We see optimism in the United States, and here orders grew by 23%. In addition, Europe is strengthening and we see positive momentum. Meanwhile the resource sector and related markets continue to have headwind. As you know, we closed Alstom on November 1 of 2015. As a result, the fourth quarter of 2016 was the first quarter where Alstom was organic. So, I’ll give a few ways to look at the quarter. On a reported basis, orders were up 4% and revenue was flat. On an organic basis, in other words including Alstom in November and December in the organic calculation, orders were up 2% and revenue was up 4%. We also show the calculation that excludes Alstom results from the organic calculation, and segment operating profit grew by 6% in the quarter. For the quarter, we had some pluses and minuses. Orders were strong ahead of our expectations. Service growth was very strong for both, revenue and orders. Alstom synergies are ahead of plan. Some businesses had very strong years, aviation, healthcare and renewable. On the negative side, we failed to close a couple of big power deals in tough markets. And in addition, restructuring exceeded gains for the year. We are active in the portfolio in the fourth quarter. We announced the acquisition of LM renewables, strengthening our wind supply chain. We further simplified GE, announcing the disposition of our water and industrial solutions businesses. The GE capital team has done a great job. We closed $86 billion of asset sales in 2016 and the move to become an industrial finance company is very positive for GE. I am particularly excited about the Baker Hughes merger which creates a strong full stream competitor in the industry. This is a good move for investors and customers. For the quarter, industrial and verticals earnings per share was $0.46, up 6% and for the year, EPS was a $1.49, up 14%. Industrial EPS was up 12% for the year. We accomplished much of what we said out to do in 2016, and we have no change for our framework in 2017. To recap the year, we finished in line with what we saw in December and within the range for the year. Overall, earnings per share was a $1.49, in line with consensus; organic growth was 1% for the year; and margins of 14% were at the low end of our range. Corporate and Alstom were in line with expectations; foreign exchange created $0.03 per share of headwind for the year; and we launched incremental restructuring which again failed to fully offset, and this created $0.02 of headwind for the year. We met or exceeded most of our cash targets; at $32.6 billion, free cash flow plus dispositions were in line with our December outlook. We had good cash to execution across both industrial and capital, and we returned more than $30 billion to investors in buyback and dividends. We’ll go through each of those in more detail. In all, we’re able to offset a challenging oil and gas market to deliver year in line with expectations. Orders grew by 2% organically in the quarter; services were particularly strong with growth of 20%; and we ended the quarter with backlog of $321 billion, up $6 billion from 2015. We saw solid growth in aviation, renewables, healthcare, and oil and gas. Renewable orders grew by 32%; healthcare had great international strength with China up 20%, Europe up 6% and Latin America up 16%; GE to GE orders were up 67%. Now, overall, equipment orders declined with tough comps and transportation versus last year. Oil and gas orders grew by 2% organically, our first growth in two years. We see some firming in the market; this includes 42% orders growth in Turbomachinery. Oil and gas equipment grew by 10% with services down slightly. And for the year, oil and gas digital orders grew by 30%. Service orders were strong across the Company, power was up 19% and transportation was up 101%. Renewables capitalized on multiple repowering opportunities to drive growth. Aviation service grew by 8% with spares up 14%, and we closed our first big lighting as a service deal with Walmart. Orders in the U.S. grew by 23% and were down about 5% globally. We saw strength in the developed markets which grew by 8% and we booked some big global orders including a $1.4 billion order with the Iraq Ministry of Energy for gas turbines. We are gaining share with LEAP in the narrow-body segment. GE Capital facilitated $5 billion in industrial orders in the quarter. Orders pricing was down slightly with sustained pressure in oil and gas. In addition, renewables was impacted by U.S. pricing dynamics; this was in line with our expectations. Predix and software orders, in other words excluding AGPs, grew by 36% in the quarter. At $4 billion, orders were up 22% for the year. Seven of the 10 segments grew by at least 10%. Let me give you some more details for instance for energy, a key market. Here, energy connections was up 26%, renewables were up 126% and power was up 213%. For the year, we signed 427 partnerships and have 22,000 developers on Predix. We created a few big global partnerships including Reliance and Maersk, and we signed a first enterprise-wide software agreement with Exelon to apply Predix across more than 2,000 power generation assets. Lastly, we acquired ServiceMax to extend our analytics across field service. So, orders were in line with expectations and consistent with our goals for 2017. Segment organic growth was up 4% in the quarter. This was up 8% without the headwind of oil and gas. We saw a substantial strength behind the launch of new products. Power grew by 15% with 9 H turbines shipped. Aviation organic growth was up 6% with 44 LEAP engine ship, life sciences grew by 9%, and renewable grew by 26% as we shipped 1.9 gigawatts of onshore wind products. Services organic growth was up 5% and was particularly strong with aviation spares growth of 18%, and we saw a strong revenue growth in Europe, Japan, India and Middle East, China and Russia. Overall, global revenue grew by 3%. Our gross margins were down 10 basis points in the quarter, driven by difficult mix, and this reflects NPI launches with the LEAP, H turbine and new wind products. The segment continued to drive down SG&A which was a benefit of about 30 basis points and segment operating profit were up 10 basis points, excluding Alstom and up a 110 basis points all in. Total industrial margins for the year were 14%, at the low end of our 14% to 14.5% guide we gave you in December. Excluding oil and gas, margins were up 30 basis points. We made good progress on gross margins this year, up 40 basis points. And service continues to be strong with margins up a 170 basis points on the year. Just a few comments on Alstom execution. For the quarter, Alstom generated $4.7 billion of orders, $500 million of segment profit, and $500 million of cash. So, we’re seeing solid growth in grid, steam turbines and services, and we believe Alstom is making GE more competitive, and we have good momentum for 2017. In the fourth quarter, we announced the exits of water and industrial solutions. We’re seeing significant interest in the platforms and discussions are progressing. We expect to close water around mid-year and industrial solutions late in the year. Net proceeds will be approximately $4 billion, and we’re targeting gains of about $2.5 billion. The gains will be offset with additional restructuring this year. At the outlook meeting, we talked about roughly a 100 basis-point margin improvement per year in 2017 and 2018. About half of that comes from running the cost play we’ve been running and leveling off spend and big programs like the H, the LEAP and new wind turbines. We’ve got programs around product and service costs that Jeff and Philippe Cochet are leading. And we’ll drive synergies in Alstom and Baker Hughes and will continue to bring down our corporate cost. The other 50 basis points comes from incremental cost out of two big buckets, digitization and integration learnings on structure that we’ll be spreading across the rest of the Company. In total, we’re working on list of close to $1.7 billion with a target of getting a $1 billion of cost out over two years. We’ve announced the new IT structure to run IT horizontally across the Company, and we expect to save $450 million. We also recently announced the partnership with PWC to hire 600 members of our tax team that will drive another $100 million of savings per year. For cash, industrial CFOA was $8.2 billion in the quarter, the biggest cash quarter in our history. We had significant growth in CFOA and free cash flow versus fourth quarter of 2015, both growing by more than 30%. We saw a $3.2 billion reduction in working capital for the year. When you add back the $600 million from the 2016 payment of our long-term incentive plan and cash from restructuring, free cash flow conversion was significantly above last year. We received another $4 billion dividend from GE Capital for a total of $20 billion in the year. We reduced net P&E by more than a $1 billion versus expectations in the year as we completed the investment in major NPI launches. For the year, free cash flow and dispositions were about $33 billion above our plan and GE’s balance sheet remained strong. We returned $30 billion to investors in dividend and buyback, a record, and we remain on track for our goals in 2017. With that, I’ll turn it over to Jeff.
Jeff Bornstein:
Thanks, Jeff. I’ll start with the fourth quarter summary. Revenues were $33.1 billion, down 2% in the quarter; industrial revenues were down 3% to $30.4 billion. As you can see on the right side of the page, the industrial segment was flat on a reported basis. Organically, industrial segment revenue was down 1% excluding Alstom and up 4% including Alstom for the months of November and December for both 2015 and 2016. Industrial operating plus vertical EPS was $0.46, down 12%; excluding gains and restructuring which were a net $0.04 of a headwind in the quarter, EPS was up 6%. The operating EPS number of $0.43 includes other continuing GE Capital activity including headquarter run-off and other exit related items that I’ll cover on the GE Capital page. Continuing EPS of $0.39 includes the impact of non-operating payment; the net EPS of $0.39 includes discontinued operations. The total disc ops impact was immaterial in the quarter and down significantly from last year, which included the gain associated with the Synchrony exit. As Jeff said, we generated $30 billion of CFOA in 2016, up from $16.4 billion last year, driven by increased dividends from GE Capital. Industrial CFOA was $11.6 billion, down 5% excluding deal taxes and pension contributions. We generated $8.2 billion of industrial CFOA in the fourth quarter which was up 34% versus last year; this was driven primarily by $5 billion of working capital with an improvement across all buckets including receivables and inventory, accounts payable and progress collections. Industrial free cash flow was up 39% and free cash flow conversion was 212% in the quarter. On a full year basis, industrial free cash flow conversion was 84% excluding deal taxes, pension and Alstom. Adjusting free cash flow conversion for gains, free cash flow conversion was 106% for the year. The GE tax rate was a negative 2% for the quarter, driven by tax benefits associated with the non-core business exit in aviation. On a pre-tax basis, the gain on the disposition totaled $49 million, but because of the high tax basis on the aviation deal, after-tax gains were $325 million. Normalizing the tax rate by excluding the tax benefit associated with gains and restructuring, the tax rate for the quarter was 12%, right about where we expected. I want to be clear that the tax benefits associated with the disposition did not fall through in the earnings; they were spent in restructuring charges. Similar to the prior quarters, the GE capital tax rate was favorable, reflecting a tax benefit on a pre-tax continuing loss. For the year, the GE tax rate was 9%. On the right side of the segment results, as I mentioned, industrial segment revenues were flat on a reported basis and down 1% organically, but they were up 4% organic will including Alstom organic. Excluding oil and gas, which continues to be challenge, organic revenue including Alstom was up 8% with strength in power, renewables, aviation and healthcare. Industrial segment op profit was up 6% and industrial op profit which includes corporate operating cost was up 2%. On the bottom of the page, as I mentioned earlier, industrial operating plus vertical EPS was $0.46, up 6% excluding gains and restructuring with industrial operating EPS up 5% on the same basis. For the year, we delivered $1.49 of EPS, which was up 14% versus 2015. Included in the $1.49 was $0.02 of uncovered restructuring that I’ll go to on the next page. So next on industrial other items for the quarter, we had $0.08 of charges related to industrial restructuring and other items that were taken at corporate. This was $0.03 higher than we planned associated with the acceleration of Alstom and lighting restructuring costs as well as higher BD [ph] costs associated with decisions we’ve made around water, Baker Hughes use and additive. In total for the quarter, restructuring charges were $1 billion on a pre-tax basis with $300 million related to the Alstom synergy investments. We also made significant investments in lighting, oil and gas, healthcare in the quarter. Gains in the quarter were $0.04, principally driven by non-strategic business exit in aviation. As I mentioned before, gains were $49 million on a pre-tax basis, but $325 million after-tax, which drove the low industrial tax rate quarter. The aviation divestiture was principally on the tax line, because of the high tax basis associated with the business. The gain was more than offset in earnings by higher restructuring. In the fourth quarter, we incurred higher uncovered restructuring charges than we planned. And at the bottom of the page, you can see that for the year, we incurred $0.02 of uncovered restructuring. We chose to accelerate restructuring as we had good projects with attractive returns and it was the right thing to do for the Company as we head into 2017 and 2018. In 2017, we expect restructuring to be above $2.5 billion, funded by the water and industrial solutions dispositions with the heavier spend in the first half of the year. For the first quarter, we’re estimating restructuring spend of about $1 billion with no offsetting gains. For the full year, as we said, we expect gains to equal restructuring but there will be variability by quarter. Next, I’ll cover the individual segments. First, I’ll start with power. Power orders in the fourth quarter totaled $11.1 billion, higher by 16%. Organic orders in the quarter including Alstom organic grew 14%. Core GE orders of $8.3 billion were lower by 4% and Alstom orders of $2.8 billion grew a 160%, organically. Equipment orders grew 1%. Core equipment orders of $3.3 billion were down 28% on lower gas turbines, 22 versus 55 a year ago. We received orders for 8 H turbines in the quarter versus 12 last year, bringing total H orders to 25 for the year and an ending backlog of 32. Alstom equipment was strong with $1.7 billion of orders including 26 HRSGs versus six last year and 11 steam turbines versus two last year. Organically, Alstom equipment orders grew four times. Service orders were $6.1 billion, up 32% with GE core services up 24% to $4.9 billion and Alstom orders grew $1.2 billion. We booked orders for 58 AGPs in the quarter versus 42 last year. Total service upgrades including AGPs grew 87%. Alstom service grew orders 61% organically with strength in India, the Middle East and Africa. Backlog finished the year at $84.7 billion, up 10%; core GE backlog grew 8% and Alstom’s backlog of $18.3 billion grew 18%. Revenues of $8.5 billion grew 20%; core GE revenues of $6.5 billion were up 6%, driven by equipment higher by 10% and services up 4%. Equipment revenue grew on gas turbine shipments of 35 units versus 28 last year, including 9 Hs for a total of 26 Hs for the year. Service growth was driven by 27 more AGPs in last year, 62 versus 35, offset partly by fewer installations. Total AGP shipments for the year were 145. Total Alstom revenues of $1.9 billion grew 83% organically. Operating profit of $2.1 billion was up 27%; core operating profit was $1.7 billion and Alstom contributed $359 million in the quarter. Core earnings were flat on higher volume, favorable FX and positive value gap offset by the mix impact of 9 Hs this year versus zero last year. H margins are positive and continuing to improve but still well below the margins on our mature F products. Alstom synergies were 454 in the quarter and $1.1 billion for the year. The business shipped 104 gas turbines this year; we’d expected to ship a 110 to 115. We expected to ship six more units but those transactions did not close in the quarter, but we expect that those units will close in 2017. In addition, although aero turbines were up in the year, we expected to ship more in the fourth quarter; again, we think those units will likely close in 2017. We operate in very tough geographies in this business. It is always 500 megawatts or gigawatt of deals that are hard to close, and it’s been the nature of the business over the last several years. And we expect this dynamic to continue into the future. In 2017, we expect a flat market in gigawatts. For the year, we are planning on a 100 to 105 gas turbine shipments. We have a strong equipment backlog of $70.6 billion, which is up 27% and a strong services backlog of $67 billion, which was up 6%. The Alstom integration performed well this year with total year orders of $10 billion, building a backlog that is up 18% and delivering over $1 billion of synergies in the year. Our outlook for power remains consistent with the expectations shared at the outlook meeting albeit off of lower base. As we said in December, we expect double-digit earnings growth in power in 2017. In order to achieve that, we need to execute on Alstom, product margin improvements and deliver services growth. Lastly, the team has to deliver the incremental cost out actions given the market conditions we face. Next is renewables. Renewable energy had a strong orders quarter. Orders in total grew 32% to $3.3 billion. Core GE wind orders were higher by 48% to over $3 billion. We took orders for 1,180 turbines versus 827 last year, up 43%, principally in the U.S. where the orders were up 54%, driven by the safe harbor qualification 2016 for 100% PTC benefit going forward. Units were higher by 43% and megawatts were up 54% on the larger 2 and 3 megawatt turbines. The business also booked $300 million of additional repower upgrades in services. Alstom orders, principally hydro were $290 million in the quarter. Backlog finished the year at $13.1 billion with GE core up 68%. Revenues in the quarter grew 29% to $2.5 billion with GE core revenue up 20%. The business shipped 786 turbines versus 847 last year, but the megawatts shipped were up 11% on the larger units. Alstom revenues of $279 million were higher by a 161% organically. Operating profit of $163 million was up 3X on better Alstom results. The core business was down 8% on increased NPI spending on the 2 and 3 megawatt turbines, lower price and foreign exchange, partly offset by volume growth and some product cost out. Alstom generated $48 million of profit in the quarter on strong synergies. For the year, the team delivered about $200 million of synergies, well above the plan, driven by sourcing and SG&A efficiency, particularly in hydro. We expect renewables to have a solid 2017 and contribute double-digit earnings improvement. The unique repower upgrade offering we expect will continue momentum and the team is making good progress in driving down cost of the new NPIs, critical given the competiveness in the industry. We expect to close the LM Wind Power acquisition in the first half and the vertical integration of blades will also help drive results. In aviation, we had another solid quarter in the fourth. From a demand perspective, global passenger air travel continued to grow strongly with RPKs up 6.1% year-to-date November with strength of both domestic and international routes. Air freight volumes grew 3.2% year-to-date in November. Orders in the quarter were $7.2 billion, up 5% with equipment orders higher by 2%. Commercial engine orders were down 4% on lower CF-6, CFM and GEnx orders, partially offset by strong GE90 and LEAP orders. $1.8 billion of new commercial engine orders included $478 million from LEAP, a $186 million in orders for CFM, $577 million orders for GEnx and $326 million in orders for GE90. Military equipment orders of $360 million were up 2%, driven by another large T700 order for 306 units. Service orders grew 8% in the quarter, commercial service orders were higher by 16% with CSA growth of 22% and spare orders up 14% during the to an ADOR of $44.5 million a day. Military service orders were down 18% and $480 million on tough comparisons. Backlog finished the year at a $155 billion, up 2% with equipment backlog of $33.3 billion, down 5% and service backlog of $121 billion, up 4%. Revenues grew 7% in the quarter to $7.2 billion. Equivalent revenue was up 1%, driven by commercial growth of 8% with 692 engine deliveries versus 643 last year, including 44 LEAP engines. This was partly offset by military down 35% on lower shipments. Service revenue was higher by 12%; commercial spares rate was 43.5 million a day, up 18%. Our profit in the quarter totaled $1.7 billion, up 11%, primarily driven by favorable price, volume and productivity, partly offset by the LEAP mix; margins expanded at 100 basis points in the quarter. Aviation had a very good year. The business shipped its first LEAP engines and currently 20 A320neos powered by LEAP are flying across six different customers. Reliability has been excellent and the engines are performing to spec. We had expected to ship a total of about 100 engines in 2016, but in coordination with the airframers, we delivered 77 for the total year, meeting all our commercial commitments. These units will now deliver in 2017 with total shipments of about 500 LEAP engines for next year. The team is also executing in leading our additive strategy. RKM and Concept Laser are great platform additions to our capability. We believe 2017 will be another solid year of execution in aviation. In oil and gas, the environment continues to be challenging and activity levels remain muted, external market indicators appear to be stabilizing with expected more balanced supply and demand fundamentals, partly influenced by the recent OPEC production agreement. U.S. onshore rig count grew 33% versus the third quarter, but was essentially flat versus the beginning of the year. Forecasted E&P spending is expected to be flat to modestly up in 2017. The business had an encouraging orders quarter. Orders of $3.3 billion were flat year-over-year and up 2% organically. Orders for all business segments were up sequentially versus the third quarter. Equipments orders grew 4% versus last year with TMS up 48%, subsea up 26% and surface up 25%, downstream was down 45% on no repeatable large African order last year. Service orders were down 3% with TMS up strongly at 40%, offset by digital, downstream, subsea and surface which were all lower. Orders for the total year were down 27%. Backlog finished the year at $21 billion, down 9% versus last year run, with equipment down 32% and services growth up 7%. Revenues in the quarter were down 22% with equipment down 25% and service down 19%. Revenues for the year were also down 22%. Operating profit of $411 million was down 43% on lower volume and price, partly offset by cost out which totals a $170 million in the quarter. Total cost out actions, for the year were $700 million. Total cost out over the last two years was $1.3 billion. 2016 was an extremely difficult year for oil and gas, and the business expects the first half of 2017 will continue to remain challenging with sequential improvements in the second half of the year. Offshore drilling and subsea activity will likely remain low in 2017. Consistent with what we discussed at the December outlook meeting, we expect the business to deliver lower earnings in 2017. Increased activity in North America onshore and stabilization in the Middle East and Europe are needed to drive improvement in our shorter cycle and surface businesses in the second half. We’ve made significant progress on integration efforts with Baker Hughes and have dedicated more than 200 people to it. We gave you an update on December 8th, no change to that outlook, and we expect to close the deal in mid-year. Next up is healthcare. Healthcare had a good quarter. Orders grew 3% to $5.4 billion. Organic orders were strong in emerging markets, up 10%, led by China higher by 19% and Latin America up 16%. Europe orders were higher by 6% organically and the U.S. was lower by 1% organically. In terms of business lines, healthcare systems orders grew organically by 3% with imaging up 5% on strength in CT, MI, and ultrasound, partly offset by lower LCS. Life sciences orders grew 6% with bioprocess higher by 7% and core imaging up 6%. Healthcare orders for the total year grew 3% reported and grew 5% organically. Revenues in the quarter grew 3%. HCS revenue grew 2% organically with ultrasound up 6% and imaging up 2%. Life sciences continued to deliver strong growth with revenue growing 9% organically, driven by bioprocess higher by 15%. Healthcare revenues for the total year grew 4% reported and 5% organically. Operating profit of more than $1 billion grew 10% in the quarter, volume and strong cost productivity more than offset lower price and higher digital spending. Margins expanded 130 basis points in the fourth quarter. Healthcare executed strongly in 2016, delivering good organic growth and operating leverage and earnings. They delivered $450 million of cost out versus $350 million target. Margins for the year expanded 100 basis points. In 2017, we expect the same focus on cost and product competitiveness with similar results. We will launch 25 new products and are targeting a point of share in 2017. We expect China, Africa and Asia Pacific to continue their strong growth. Europe is expected to be roughly stable, while the U.S. maybe a bit slower due to the uncertainty around the repeal or replace of the Affordable Care Act. Next on transportation, fourth quarter carload volume improved modestly, up 2.1%, driven by intermodal carloads up 3.4% and commodity carloads up 90 basis points. Commodity volume was driven by agriculture, which was higher by 7.4%, metals were higher by 25% and chemicals were higher by 2.4%, which was partly offset by coal down by 2.8% and petroleum down almost 16%. Notwithstanding the improvement in the quarter, we expect 2017 to continue to be difficult for volume growth. Year-to-date, carload volume was down 4.5%, driven by intermodal down 1.5% and commodities down over 7%. Transportation orders of $1.4 billion were down 58%, consistent with the North American market. Equipment orders of $64 million were down 98% on no locomotive orders versus 1,113 units last year, including the large 10-year, 1,000 loco India order. Service orders of $1.3 billion were very strong, up 2X, driven by large multiyear modernization order to retrofit 500 locomotives of the North American class one railroad over five years. Backlog finished the year at $20.1 billion, down $2.4 billion, driven by equipment liquidation. Revenues in the quarter were down 23% with equipment down 38% and services up 2%. We shipped 171 locos in the quarter versus 320 last year. Services grew 2% on higher contractual services, partly offset by lower spare parts. Operating profit of $370 million was down 6%, primarily driven by lower volumes, partially offset by cost out and restructuring benefits and mix. Margins exceeded 450 basis points in the quarter. The transportation team executed well in 2016 in a very tough environment. Consistent with the outlook meeting, we expect 2017 to be even tougher with expected loco shipments down 50%, pressuring operating profit down double-digits. Having said that, we expect the team will outperform the industry. Next Energy Connections & Lightening, orders for the segment totaled $3.1 billion with energy connection orders of $2.8 billion and current orders of just under $300 million. Energy connection orders grew 8% reported; organically including Alstom, orders grew 5%. Power conversion was lower by 23% on continued headwinds in oil and gas. Industrial solutions was down 1%, but outperformed the North American market by a couple of points in the quarter; and grid orders of $1.5 billion grew 27% in the quarter. Revenues for energy connections were higher 15% and up 16% organically including Alstom. Power Conversion revenues were down 18%, industrial solutions were down 3% and grid grew 56% revenues in the quarter. Current and lighting revenues were down 14% with current growing 5% and legacy business declining 26%, as we continue to resize the business downward. Operating profit in the quarter totaled $102 million, Energy connections are $98 million and current and lightening $3 million. Energy connections earnings were driven by a $100 million of grid earnings, $42 million of industrial solutions earnings, up 59% partly offset by power conversion which was down. Alstom synergy execution was strong in 2016, delivering $226 million of benefits, above our target of $175 million. In 2016, the market backdrop for these businesses was tough, but it was not a good execution year either. In 2017, we expect this segment to deliver double digit earnings improvement with better execution in industrial solutions, lighting and power conversion, and we expect grid to continue to perform well. Our estimate is the industrial solutions divestment will happen later in the year. Finally, I’ll cover GE Capital. The verticals earned $478 million in this quarter, up 9% from prior year, driven principally by lower impairments in EFS. GECAS, EFS in industrial finance all had strong quarters and overall portfolio quality remains same. In the fourth quarter, the verticals funded $3.8 billion of on book volume and contributed through enabling $5 billion of industrial orders. Other continuing operations generated $262 million loss in the quarter, principally driven by excess interest expense, preferred dividends, restructuring costs related to the portfolio transformation and headquarter operating costs partially offset by tax benefits. These costs will continue to come down, because excess debt matures and we right size the organization structure. Discontinued operations shown $3 million of income with gains and other related items largely offset by operating costs. Overall, GE Capital reported net income of $218 million. We ended the quarter with $93 billion of ENI excluding liquidity with continuing ENI of 82 billion. Liquidity at the end of the fourth quarter was $51 billion. Asset sales remained ahead of plan. During the quarter, we closed $17 billion of transactions, bringing the total closed transactions through the end of the quarter to $190 billion. We have signed agreements for an additional $4 billion in the fourth quarter, bringing the total signings to a $197 billion, which essentially completes our plan given that the majority of the remaining assets will run off as it makes better economic sense. We remain on track for 1.1 times price to tangible book that we initially estimated. GE Capital paid $4 billion of dividends during the fourth quarter for a total of $20 billion in 2016 versus the original $18 billion target for the year; dividends of $5 billion ahead of the original plan announced in April of 2015. Overall, the GE Capital team delivered a strong verticals performance while executing on all aspects of the exit plan. With that, I’ll turn it back to Jeff.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks Jeff. We have no change to our 2017 framework. Let me take you through the pieces. Orders grew by 2% in the quarter organically; oil and gas seems to have bottomed; and services are very strong. Alstom is generating orders growth. So, we see a line of sight for the 3% to 5% organic growth for the year. We’re executing on $1 billion incremental cost outplay with plenty of restructuring to support it. So, we see our way to a 100 basis points of margin enhancement. Alstom is executing well and should have EPS at the high-end of our range, and we end the year with good momentum and working capital. Meanwhile, GE Capital continues to execute on their transition to an industrial finance company. So to confirm on 2017, we see EPS of a $1.60 to $1.70; operating cash flow of $16 billion to $20 billion; and cash to investors of $19 billion to $21 billion in buyback and dividends. So, a good outlook for the Company, a solid year in 2016, and now Matt, let me turn it back over to you.
Matt Cribbins:
Great. Thanks, Jeff. With that, operator, let’s open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Davis:
I know we’ve talked in December about the election, but now that you’ve had a couple of months, I mean what are your customers -- I understand healthcare could get pushed out a little bit, but what are your customers in power and renewables and in some of these other areas where you could have some regulatory uncertainty; is there a risk that they push back orders or delay projects, things like that; I mean clearly just the U.S., but how do you think about that, Jeff?
Jeff Immelt:
Scott, I’ll take a crack. I would say, we haven’t really seen much change so far. I think if I took it by segment, the Affordable Care Act is getting the most, I would say both attention and the media and by our customers. I think you could see some caution around the Affordable Care Act as you go forward. We haven’t really seen that much, but that could happen. I think on the renewables side, really with the PTC over the next few years, I think that’s pretty much locked in place. And then, I still think the basic thesis around gas power in the U.S. remains intact as it pertains to being a base-load technology in the future. But then, I think outside the U.S., I really haven’t seen much change in interplay, post the election in terms of what our customers are saying and how to think. I don’t know, Jeff, would you add anything to that?
Jeff Bornstein:
I think that’s the lay of the land, Scott.
Operator:
The next question is from Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell:
I just wanted to focus on aviation. So, I guess you had a very good EBIT number in Q4, helped by the gain and the high-teens growth in commercial spare sales. Should we think that that profit growth levels out in the first half of 2017? You don’t get the same growth rate in spares presumably LEAP shipments catch up after a light Q4. And then, also longer term, your commercial engine orders were down about 940 units in 2016 overall. How are you thinking about the cycle and your commercial OE revenues?
Jeff Bornstein:
Well, let me start with the few things, and I’ll let Jeff weigh in. The gain was not recorded in aviation, okay? That was recorded at corporate; it was offset in restructuring. So, none of the gains results are reflected in the segment performance at aviation. We had a strong spares year this year; we’re up double-digits. Our expectation is the spares sales rate, the ADOR will not be up that strongly next year; we’re thinking high single-digits. And I think our expectations are as Jeff shared with you in December is that we’re going to continue to grow the operating profit in aviation actually notwithstanding the LEAP shipments. So, right now, our estimate is we’ll ship something close to 500 million -- 500 LEAP engines next year, and that’s factored into that outlook. And we expect the services business partly with the spares growth I just talked about to continue to grow smartly in 2017.
Jeff Immelt:
Yes. I think just to echo, Julian, what Jeff said, I think the two things I think about aviation is the business model as it pertains to services and revenue, cash flow models and things like that. I think investors should feel great about that. And then execution on the LEAP, and I think Jeff laid out the LEAP shipments; we’re kind of on learning curve. And those two elements I think really are the ones that dictate aviation growth. But we feel -- we think the aviation team did a good job in 2016, and they’re well-positioned to do another good job in 2017.
Jeff Bornstein:
And their commercial equipment backlog is very strong. We took fewer orders on new commercial equipment engines in 2016, but the backlog is very strong.
Operator:
The next question is from Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven Winoker:
Since I only have one question, I’d love to focus on cash here. And within that, Jeff, is there any factoring this quarter from GE Capital into GE industrial? And then also, while it’s the strongest cash flow quarter in a while, still a little bit below what we thought you guys implied when we talked about it before, and then as you think about it progressing through 2017 and beyond, maybe just talk a little more about kind of the cash flow initiatives comp that really can give investors confidence that the cash flow part of the story is improving.
Jeff Bornstein:
Okay. There is a lot in that. So, let me start with the fourth quarter, Steve. So, we improved working capital in fourth quarter about $5.2 billion, which best we can tell is the strongest working capital quarter the Company’s ever had. And I want to just give you some of the thesis on that. So, within working capital, accounts receivable generated about $0.5 billion; $1.2 billion generation in inventory; $1.8 billion generation in AP, a lot of that being renegotiated terms. We talked about realigning or aligning suppliers with customers in terms of the time sync between build and collect. And then, $1.7 billion on progress, orders were a bit better; as a result, progress is a bit better. And that’s how you get the $5.2 billion. So within that, accounts receivable performance, you asked about factoring. For the total year, practically with GE Capital was at $1.6 billion change for the year. It was $1.7 billion last year. So, actually year-to-year, it was $100 million less of a benefit in the year between what we did with GE Capital around factoring. And in the fourth quarter importantly and you see it because our receivables improved $500 million is from the third to fourth quarter of 2015, the benefit was $2.3 billion, the benefit going from this past third quarter to this quarter was $700 million. So, it was actually down $1.6 billion year-to-year between third and fourth quarter each in those years. So, this very good underlying performance here, it’s not just about -- it’s actually very little to do with GE Capital factoring.
Jeff Immelt:
Steve, I would add. I think the one piece that we’re still not happy with in terms of Q4’s inventory, and I think we generated -- we reduced working capital by $3 billion for the year and still didn’t do, what I think either Jeff or I want to see on inventory. We expect inventory to go down by $2 billion next year, and we think that’s going to give us a momentum as it pertains to CFOA and working capital in 2017.
Jeff Bornstein:
So, let me just follow-up and answer that part of your question. So, we came in $11.6 billion of industrial CFOA. We were shooting to be something closer to $12 billion of CFOA in the latest update we gave you. When you subtract CapEx and industrial free cash flow, we ended up at $8.9 billion, and that was actually right in the middle of the range we gave you coming into the year on industrial free cash flow. But the 400 light is really all about inventory, and it’s essentially the $1 billion roughly, the $1 billion sales miss left more in inventory than we expected, not all of that would have converted to receivables and then from receivables would have converted to cash, but a significant piece of it would have been. So, I would say on industrial free cash flow basis, a couple of hundred million lighter; on industrial CFOA, closer to $400 million lighter; and most of it’s about at volume not going out to door, not being rev rec.
Jeff Immelt:
And this is all in people’s incentive plans for 2016 and 2017.
Operator:
The next question is from Steve Tusa with JP Morgan.
Steve Tusa:
So, we are getting a lot of obviously questions around tax policy, and we’ve gotten a lot of questions from investors on you guys have a relatively low tax rate as it is, but there is some conversation we’ve had with investors that say you can go substantially lower, something like almost to like a zero to 5% type of range. I can’t quite get there just doing the high level math. So, maybe if you could just give us some color on how your tax guys are looking at what’s out there from a tax policy perspective?
Jeff Bornstein:
So, at this point, see, this is all speculation. Right? I mean, the only point of reference you have is a little bit of what’s coming out of new the administration and then what exists in the form of the Brady bill in House Ways and Means. And I think what GE wants and what we think is most important to competitiveness for U.S. companies is essentially a competitive tax rate, something that looks more like the OECD averages, which is just roughly 21%, 22%. And this notion of territoriality that you pay the tax in the jurisdiction that you actually earn it and then from there those earnings are fungible and can move cross border. Those are the essential things. And then, as a transition item on historical foreign earnings, the companies left offshore, we want a reasonable transition tax if one is necessary in order to true up the historical performance. The real delta between that is a minimum to make U.S. companies more competitive, put them on an equal footing with most of the people we compete with, countries we compete with, is question about border adjustability. And as I am sure you understand and it’s the way border adjustability has been described, there is an incentive for exporters to export more, because there is essentially no tax on exports, and that’s about trying to drive more production and manufacturing into the U.S. So, if a company is net exporter, you could envision on the border adjustability, they pay a lot lower tax rate against those export against U.S. But you’re going to remember in the case of General Electric, 55%, 60% of what we do, we do outside the U.S. Order adjustability doesn’t impact at all what we pay for taxes in Sweden, Switzerland, or the UK, Japan and China. And so, although you may -- companies may find themselves in place with a relatively lower U.S. tax liability, I don’t think it changes in anyway how they think about what their foreign tax liabilities are.
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Jeff, can you give us a little more color on your power business? It’s understandable that you would see some delays in shipments; it’s a pretty difficult market. But, did you see any incremental delays in closing deals toward the end of the year; and was it a result of GE being more careful around financing or customers just wanting to delay delivery? And then, you mentioned you still expect double-digit earnings growth in power, but how dependent are you on some of these delayed turbine shipments to reach your 2017 forecast?
Jeff Immelt:
Yes. So, maybe I’ll start, Jeff. So, a couple of things happened in the fourth quarter. We had six, arguably seven, but I would say six gas turbines that we absolutely thought were going to ship. Four of those were 13E2 class turbines that were going into Bahrain and Iraq. And these are enormously difficult geographies to get stuff done. And right up to the end of the year, we thought those transactions were going to go; they didn’t end up going. I think we are confident they will go in the first half of 2017. The fact with two 9Es that were going to West Africa, and as it turns out, in the end the customer came back and we thought whether they wanted 9Es which we had made an inventory and whether they actually might want to go with an H class turbine instead. So that likely will book as an order in 2017, not clearly yet whether if it converts to an H, whether we’ll ship in 2017. And then I’d say, the last piece is although for the year we did pretty good on aero turbines, we were up about 10 units for the year, we were down 10 units year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and we missed about seven trailer mounts in the fourth quarter. And again, we are talking about places like Libya, Iraq, really, really difficult geographies where we just didn’t get those short cycle convertible TMs across the finish line. I think our outlook for TMs and aero derivatives largely remains intact for 2017. They are just really difficult, difficult transactions to get across the line. And I’d say the last thing is, although we had a good AGP quarter, we did 145 for the year, very close to -- right in the middle of what we guided, we expected to do more than 145 AGPs for the year and other upgrades, Dry Low NOx, DLNs; we had built sets because we thought we could deliver incremental upgrades here in the fourth quarter, and some of those just moved to the right. We didn’t get all the upgrades we thought we’d get done in the quarter and that’s really the delta in the fourth quarter as it relates to power. Now, when you think about next year, it’s really, as I said earlier, there is three or four things we need to happen. So, Alstom performed very well in power in 2016. We over delivered on synergies, the business delivered everything they said they were going to do around Alstom, orders were very, very strong. The backlog from the time of closing until year end is up 18% year-over-year, very strong up on the equipment, even stronger than the 18%. So, we need the power business to deliver the incremental improvement in Alstom from 2016 to 2017. We need our service business to do more or less what they did this year. The service business for the year grew operating profit about 7%; we’re looking for mid single digits, that kind of performance in 2017. We got to deliver the structural cost out, just given where we are in the industry and the volatility. And then, the last one is we took a lot of headwind this year on the H launch, both the ramp of the H and the individual unit cost. Now, the units we shipped in the second half of the year were profitable, significantly more profitable than the beginning of the year, but still much less profitable than a lot of the F technology that they are replacing. And so, we’re looking for that turnaround, a meaningful turnaround, hundreds of millions of dollars in 2017. As we come down not just the cost curve on the H but you’ll notice in our orders OPI, we’ve been getting price on the H for the last five quarters in a row. And so we think prices are much better as we deliver 23 Hs in 2017.
Operator:
The next question is from Shannon O’Callaghan with UBS.
Shannon O’Callaghan:
Hey, just a follow-up on the power and also in renewables, as you think about ramping the development programs; both those segments on a core basis had margins down, power 150, renewables 160 this quarter. How do they turn around in 2017; I mean, do both of those still, do you envision the core piece having up margins and how much of this swing in the development programs is part of that versus other factors?
Jeff Bornstein:
Maybe, I’ll start, Shannon. I think the development programs explain a ton of turnaround year-over-year. I think in the case of the power business, the H investment was -- I don’t know, $300 million or $400 million of headwind in 2016 versus 2015. We think most of that turns around. In the case of the onshore wind business, were going through a big product conversion process in 2016 as well. So, I think we feel like on both those cases, we should see core margin enhancement going into 2017, and that’s both on what I would say, both on the development side and also on the product cost side.
Jeff Immelt:
Yes. I think on the H, we just talked about that, both price and unit cost, and less development cost. I don’t think it’s more complicated than that. On renewables, you don’t have the price element; price is a real challenge in onshore wind turbine. Some of it’s the competitiveness around giving the repower -- I’m sorry, the PTC Safe Harbor orders. So, in renewables, it’s a little bit of program cost around the 2.X turbines and 3.X turbines, it’s a lot our about product unit cost and volume. So, we’re going to ship order of magnitudes a number similar to what we did this year, roughly 3,000 wind turbines. But in addition to that, we’re likely going to do more than 800 million -- 800 repower units in 2017. So, we expect the volume to be up materially and that also to contribute with volume leverage to the margin improvement year-to-year.
Operator:
Our final question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Just going back to the question overall revenue, as we look at your revenues versus consensus, it just seems that revenues are relatively weak relative consensus across the board. And usually, you guys hit the numbers pretty close. And it’s not just power, it seems to be across the board. And just has anything happened broadly in the last two weeks of the year after the analyst meeting to drive this slowdown; is there sort of a broader development that explains it? Thank you.
Jeff Immelt:
I mean, I think Andrew, I would say the fourth quarter organic revenue was power up 15, renewables up 26, oil and gas down 21, aviation up 6, transportation down 22, healthcare up 3, and energy connections up 16. So, the total organic revenue growth was up 4% for the quarter. I think clearly power is explainable. I think clearly oil and gas, even though I like the orders performance in oil & gas, it’s a harder segment to call. I think other than that, Andrew, it’s really just noise. It’s $31 billion or $30 billion to $35 billion a quarter. There is going to be puts and takes on a revenue line. But I think if you go down, if you think about 2017 as being an organic guide of up 3 to 5, and you’ve got 4% organic in Q4 in revenue, I feel pretty secure about the 3 to 5 guide for 2017. I just think you’ve got to look at it that way. Look, power didn’t do as much revenue as we would have liked. It was still substantially up organically, up 5% organically without Alstom and up 15% with Alstom. So, that’s not bad.
Jeff Bornstein:
I would just add to that, Andrew. So, power is like no question; oil and gas is like mostly transaction of convertible volume less than the team was forecasting. Everything else is actually better. When you add up the rest of the portfolio against our framework, they came in higher on revenue.
Matt Cribbins:
Oka, great. Couple of quick announcements before we wrap. The replay of today’s call will be available this afternoon on our investor website and our first quarter 2017 earnings call will on April 21st. We’ll also be holding our annual shareholders’ meeting on April 26th in Asheville, North Carolina. Jeff, back to you.
Jeff Immelt:
Yes. So, Matt, just to wrap up, again, I think the team’s focused on 2017. Here is the ways that the GE team is compensated as they look forward into next year, 3% to 5% organic growth, we just kind of went through the pieces of that; 100 basis points of margin enhancement, I think combination of run rate and incremental cost out actions already in play; and strong free cash flow and dispositions. I think good momentum in Q4, more work to do, but I feel like the momentum around the Company is very good. So, we are aligned with what we showed you in December and off and executing. Thanks, Matt.
Matt Cribbins:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matthew Cribbins - VP-Corporate Investor Communications Jeffrey Immelt - Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Bornstein - CFO and SVP
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Steven Winoker - Bernstein Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Deane Dray - RBC Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Ellen, and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matthew Cribbins:
Good morning and thanks for joining our third quarter earnings call. Today I'm joined by our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; and our CFO, Jeff Bornstein. Earlier today, we posted a press release, presentation, and supplemental on our Investor website at www.ge.com/investor. As a reminder, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. With that, I’ll turn it over to Jeff.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Thanks, Matt. GE had a good quarter in a slow growth environment. We continue to see challenges in the resource sector as customers adjust to a lower price environment. Globally growth continues but at a low level. There is sufficient opportunity out there to achieve our goals. At the same time we plan to control our costs even tighter as we navigate this environment. GE grew organically by 1% and EPS grew by 10%. Segment profit grew by 1% year-to-date ex-FX. Industrial margins were up 40 basis points again excluding foreign exchange. CFOA was $8 billion including $2.9 billion of industrial cash flow. We ended the quarter with $319 billion of backlog and we accomplished our financial goals despite the impact of $0.04 per share and foreign exchange headwinds year-to-date. We continue to execute our capital allocation plan. We have virtually completed our pivot and financial services with 193 billion of signings. Year-to-date we've returned $24.6 billion to investors through dividends and buyback. For the year we're increasing the buyback by $4 billion from $18 billion to $22 billion and total cash return to investors will be at least $30 billion for the year. We continue to invest in the company. In the quarter we announced investments in additive manufacturing, digital platforms and wind turbine supply chain. These will add to earnings in 2018 and position the company in fast growth markets in the future. Orders were $26.9 billion down 6%. Alstom orders were $5.2 billion and backlog is up $3.2 billion since the acquisition. Overall backlog is up 6% versus a year ago with service backlog up 11%. We had substantial strength in renewables, healthcare and power. Renewables grew by 59% including our first substantial offshore order at $600 million and $400 million order to repower the installed base. Healthcare HCS equipment had a strongest orders growth in five years at 12%. This includes 12% growth in the United States and 15% in China. Aviation service orders were up 10% and growth market orders up 21%. Oil & Gas orders were down 21% in the quarter. There are still pockets of growth. Our Middle East orders grew by 5% and Latin America was up by 19%. We ended the quarter with $22 billion of backlog and we expect fourth quarter orders to be about flat with the year ago. AGPs remain on track for 135 to 150 in the year. Software orders were about $900 million in 3Q up 11% and at $2.8 million for 50% year-to-date. We saw a significant growth and power of 72%, Oil & Gas up 10%, transportation up 21% and Grid up 43%. Customer wins include Gairdow, NEC, Aramco, Haier, and CN. We continue to build our foundation for growth. We have 243 partners on Predix and are on track for 20,000 developers by year-end. Our productivity at $500 million is already above target and should be strong for the year. We see order strengthening in the fourth quarter versus a year ago and that will position us for 2017. GE is executing well in the environment. As I said earlier, organic growth was up 1%. Excluding Oil & Gas organic revenue growth is up 6% in the third quarter and 4% year-to-date. We had several strong business performances. Power was up 7% with 15% growth in equipment, renewables grew 44%, aviation service was up 12% and the GE contributed the growth with vertical financing which supported $4.2 billion of industrial orders and meanwhile GE to GE revenue which is a measure of internal pull-through grew by 25%. Organic growth is accelerating through the year. The fourth quarter will be up 4% and for the year we expect organic growth to be 0% to 2%. We continue to see a drag in Oil & Gas with revenue down 15% to 20% for the year and the rest of GE will grow at a healthy pace. The Oil & Gas team is executing well in a tough environment. We continue to aggressively manage cost while positioning for long-term growth. The business fully leverages the GE store and will come out of the cycle stronger. Core margins grew by 40 basis points and gross margins grew by 110 basis points ex-FX. We’ve see solid work in value gap and cost productivity slightly offset by mix. Service margins again led the way with 220 basis points of expansion. Our analytical tools have been critical to enhance service margins. Our businesses have done a nice job in a slow growth environment. For instance transportation grew margins by 90 basis points, despite lower volume. We continue to invest in the growth and competitiveness of GE. Alstom remains on track and we're building backlog and winning key new orders. We're on track for synergies of 1.2 billion in the year. Year-to-date Alstom Motors orders were $12.7 billion up 13% versus 2015. We put forward more restructuring which should help 2017 and beyond. Alstom remains on track to deliver $0.05 of EPS this year ex-FX and we expect to complete purchase accounting in the fourth quarter by booking an incremental reserve of $2.4 billion to cover customer contracts and legal and tax reserves. This is consistent with expectations. The net present value of synergies is more than $21 billion and Alstom will generate a mid-teen return over time. In September we announced the acquisition of SLM and Arcam which will position GE as a leader in the fast growth market for additive manufacturing equipment while opening up potential for an additional $3 billion to $5 billion of productivity over time Also in September we announced the acquisition of Meridium, a leader in asset performance management. This completes our suite of maintenance optimization, machine and equipment health and reliability management. It's a perfect fit for digital strategy and will accelerate our growth. Last week we announced the acquisition of LM Wind Power. This gives us enhance margins and technical expertise. In addition this opens up growth in emerging markets. LM and GE have a deep pipeline of innovation which will lead the industry. We have pretty good quarter for cash, industrial CFOA was $2.9 billion up 13% from 2015. Year-to-date free cash flow was $17.3 billion including a capital dividend of $5 million. We received an additional $2 billion dividend from Capital in October. In the fourth quarter we expect industrial CFOA to be more than $9 billion based on higher earnings and lower working capital. In addition, we should receive a $4 billion dividend from GE Capital. So for the year, we expect free cash flow plus dispositions to be more than $32 billion above our goal. As I noted earlier, we continue to invest in long-term growth and competitiveness and with the improved outlook on CFOA, we plan to boost our buyback by $4 billion to $22 billion with a total cash return to investors expected to be $30 billion including the dividend. Our balance sheet remains very strong. All of our cash metrics looks solid for the year. So now let me turn it over to Jeff to go through our operations.
Jeffrey Bornstein :
Thanks Jeff. I will start with the third quarter summary. Revenues of $29.3 billion up 4% in the quarter, industrial revenues were up 5% to $26.7 billion. You can see on the right side that industrial segments were up 4% reported and up 1% organic. Alstom revenue in the quarter was $3.2 billion. Industrial, operating plus verticals EPS was $0.32 in the quarter up 10%. The operating EPS number of $0.27 includes other continuing GE Capital activity including headquarter runoff and other exit-related items that I’ll cover on the GE Capital. Continuing EPS of $0.23 includes the impact of non-operating pension, the net EPS of $0.22 includes discontinued operations. Total disc-ops impact was a charge of $103 million in the quarter driven by GE Capital exit cost. As Jeff said we generated $18.3 billion of CFOA year-to-date up from $6.5 billion last year driven by increased dividends from GE Capital. Excluding deal taxes, industrial CFOA was $3.4 billion year-to-date down 45%. We generated $2.9 billion of industrial CFOA in the third quarter which was up 13% versus last year. This is driven primarily by working capital improvement in receivables and inventory. Progress collection was a usage in the quarter on lower order principally in Oil & Gas. Free cash flow was up 70% and free cash flow conversion was 93% in the quarter. Adjusted free cash flow conversion for the mismatch of gain income and cash which is included in other investing activities, free cash flow conversion would be 99%. Alstom generated 25 million of CFOA in the quarter. As Jeff said earlier we now expect GE capital dividends for the year of $20 billion versus the planned $18 billion. Fourth quarter will be another large industrial cash quarter on $5 billion of cash income and continued progress on working capital principally around inventories related to higher volume of deliveries in the quarter. Industrial CFOA is expected to generate between $11 billion and $12 billion cash for the total year. The tax rate was 11% in the quarter bringing the year-to-date tax rate to 13%. In the third quarter we adopted an accounting standards change related to the treatment of tax benefits on stock option exercises which had a favorable impact on our 3Q tax rate of about two points. The impact on our year-to-date rate was about one point. Given that change, we now expect the total year GE rate to be in the low teens versus the mid-teens rate we guided previously. The GE Capital tax rate was favorable reflecting the tax benefit on pretax continuing loss. On the right side of the segment results, as I mentioned industrial segment revenues were up 4% reported and up 1% organically. Excluding Oil & Gas which has clearly been challenging, organic revenue was up 6% with strength in power renewable, aviation and healthcare. Industrial segment op profit was down 5% reported and down 3% organically. The organic number excludes the impact of 14 million of FX translation headwind. We also had an additional 120 million of negative FX transactional impacts year-over-year which is not adjusted for the organic calculation. This related to remeasurement and mark-to-market on open hedges principally in Oil & Gas renewables and Energy Connections. Excluding all FX organic operating profit was flat in the quarter. Including corporate operating costs, industrial op profit was down 6% reported and down 4% organically and flat excluding all FX. As you see at the bottom of the page and as I mentioned earlier, industrial operating plus vertical EPS was $0.32 up 10% with industrial operating EPS up 8%. On a year-to-date basis we delivered at $1.03 of EPS which was up 29% versus the prior year. Next on industrial and other items for the quarter. We had $0.05 of charges related to industrial, restructuring and other items that were taken at corporate. Charges were $683 million on a pretax basis with $200 million related to Alstom synergies, investments that we've made to drive results. $100 million related to continue cost out actions in Oil & Gas and actions taken in lighting and other segments. We also closed the asset management transaction in the quarter resulting in a $400 million pretax gain. This gain was partially offset by a charge associated with the anticipated sale of our majority share in a nonstrategic business in aviation that makes aero structures. The net gains for the quarter were $0.02. At the bottom of the page you can see the profile for 2016. We continue to expect gains in restructuring to offset for the year at about $0.24 both in earnings and charges. Next I'll cover these segments. First is power, power orders in the quarter totaled $7.5 billion up 56% including Alstom. Excluding Alstom orders were $4.7 billion down 3%. Core equipment orders were flat at $1.7 billion. Gas power system orders were higher by 6% driven by aero and gas turbines offset partially by Distributed Power resets. We booked 36 aeroderivative units in the quarter versus 26 last year but strong demand in sub-Saharan Africa and Argentina. Gas turbine units were 11 versus 22 a year ago. Although the number of units were lower, the dollar value of the orders were up 10% on much larger units, principally the H with six units ordered versus four last year. We have 33 Hs in backlog and received orders for 50 inception to-date on the progress. One of the H orders in the quarter for three units was full scope and included additional Alstom scope totaling 760 million. We continue to see a real opportunity for growth and equipment pull-through between GE and the Alstom businesses. Core equipment backlog grew 34% versus last year. Core service orders of 3 billion were lower by 4% on lower Power Services driven by no repeat of a large flange upgrades in last year and timing on 10 AGP order. AGP orders in the quarter were 24 versus 22 last year. We have worked 50% of the 10 AGPs and moved to the fourth quarter as of this call and are still on track for the year for 135 to 150 AGPs in total. Alstom orders in the quarter were $2.8 billion, equipment orders totaled $2 billion including $1.1 billion for the Hinkley Point U.K. power project. We also booked another 3 HRSGs and three steam turbines related to the full scope H1s I mentioned earlier. Alstom service orders were just under 900 million. Alstom backlog ended the quarter at 17.7 billion which is up 50% since the acquisition with equipment up 49% and services down slightly. Power revenue in the quarter totaled $6.5 billion up 37%, core GE revenue $5.1 billion was higher by 7%, core equipment revenue of $2 billion grew 50% driven by gas power systems higher by 60%. We shipped 30 gas turbines including seven Hs versus 16 a year ago. Power units were higher by nine versus last year. Core services revenues of $3.1 billion grew 2% on outage volume and upgrades. We shipped 28 AGPs in the quarter versus 22 a year ago. Alstom revenue in the quarter totaled $1.5 billion with $530 million of equipment and $920 million of service revenues. Operating profit and total was just shy of $1.2 billion with core op profit of $1.1 billion and Alstom op profit of $91 million. Core earnings were higher by 3% on positive value gap and volume partially offset by the mix impact of 70 Hs versus zero last year. The Hs we shipped in the third quarter were profitable but drove a 70 basis point margin contraction in the quarter. The $91 million of Alstom earnings included a $16 million FX headwind. Through the third quarter the team has delivered $650 million of Alstom synergies versus 777 total year target that we shared with you last year and the business is delivering on H profitability in the second half. For the year we expect to ship 25 H turbines and about 110 to 115 gas turbines in total. Next up is renewable, orders in the quarter totaled 3 billion up 59%. Core orders excluding Alstom of $1.9 billion grew 3%. Core orders are driven by large service orders for $400 million associated with repowering and upgrading of existing units offset partly by fewer new unit orders of 592 turbines versus 821 a year ago. Over 90% of the new unit orders were the large new machines. We expect fourth quarter orders to be strong as the final fully qualified US PTC orders are placed. Repowering, upgrades and new units provide a strong outlook for the fourth quarter in the future. Alstom orders in the quarter totaled 1 billion driven by large offshore wind win in Germany of over $600 million and $400 million of Hydro orders. Backlog finished the quarter with $12.9 billion. Revenues of $2.8 billion grew 66% with core GE revenues up $2.4 billion higher by 43%. The business shipped 970 wind units versus 735 wind units in the third quarter of last year. Alstom revenue totaled 381 million in the quarter. Operating profit $202 million was up 68% with a core business higher by 22%, driven by higher volume offsetting negative foreign exchange. Our profit rate was down 150 basis points excluding Alstom reflecting new product mix and $58 million of negative foreign exchange versus last year. We continue to improve margins of the new 2 megawatt machine. Alstom synergies in the quarter totaled $46 million and Alstom op profit was a loss of $12 million. For the year we now expect to ship 3000 to 3200 wind turbines versus the 3000 we had previously communicated to you. Next on aviation, our global passenger air travel continues to see strong growth despite a slight increase in capacity relative to demand. Year-to-date August traffic was up 5.8% with strength in both domestic and international markets. Airfreight volumes were up 1.4% August year-to-date with FTKs growing 3.9% year-over-year versus last year. Orders in the quarter were $6.2 billion down 6%. Equipment orders of $2.1 billion were down 27% and lower commercial engine orders driven by 9X, GE90 and GEnx. In the quarter we booked $1.4 billion of new engine orders including about $400 million in LEAP, 250 million of CFM and 350 million of GEnx. Military equipment orders of $204 million were up sharply driven principally by T700 orders from Turkey. Total equipment backlog of $33.7 billion was down 4%. Service orders grew 10% with commercial service orders up 13% driven by CSAs up strongly in 29%, overhaul up 9% and the spares order rate up 6% at $42 million a day. Military service orders were down 12% on non repeatable large Air Force over the last year. Total service backlog grew 15% to $122 billion. Revenues of $6.3 billion were up 5%. Equipment revenue was down 3% with commercial up 5% on higher delivers including 22 LEAP engines while military equipment revenue was down 33% on lower shipments. Service revenues were higher by 12%. The commercial spares shipment rate was up 5% to $39.7 million a day. Operating profit of $1.5 billion was up 10% driven by higher volume and cost productivity. Margin rates improved 120 basis points in the quarter. Third quarter was another solid execution quarter for the aviation team and we're on track to the ramp up on LEAP shipments this year. We have shipped 33 LEAP engines today and there are currently six LEAP power planes flying with two airlines with the departure performance of 100% and some of those planes are operating more than 10 cycles a day. We expect to deliver about 105 engines this year. Next is Oil & Gas. The industry remains very challenging. Some market indicators show a modest sequential improvement in the third quarter. U.S. onshore rig counts were higher by 15% versus the second quarter and U.S. well counts rose 3% versus the second quarter. Both rig and well counts remain down about 50% from where they were last year. External forecast for upstream spending for 2016 have been revised to be less negative and with 2017 slightly more positive. Flow markets on our industrial applications remain stable but Oil & Gas flow and OpEx markets continue to be weak. Orders for Oil & Gas of $2.5 billion were down 21% in the quarter with equipment down 22% and services down 21%. All segments are equipment declines except subsea drilling which was up 33% on easier comparisons last year. Service orders declined in all segments. Backlog ended the quarter at $21.6 billion which is down 7%. Equipment backlog down 32% versus last year while services backlog grew 40%. Revenues in the quarter of $3 billion were down 25% with equipment revenue down 33%. All segments were lower except downstream technologies which grew 16% in the third quarter. Service revenues were down 16% with declines across all the segments. Op profit $353 million was down 42% driven by lower volume, price and foreign-exchange partially offset by cost execution. The business took out $245 million of costs in the quarter. Total cost out year-to-date is $535 million. The team expects to deliver total cost out for the year of between $700 million and $800 million adjusting for cost actions related to volume. The business remains on track for op profit down about 30% excluding the effects of foreign exchange. No doubt it's an incredibly tough environment but Lorenzo and the team have executed well on their cost out initiatives and capturing available growth opportunities as they present themselves. On healthcare, healthcare business had another solid quarter. Orders in the quarter grew 6% to $4.8 billion. In terms of geography orders grew organically 5% in the U.S., 6% in Europe and 10% in Asia-Pacific. China orders were up 2% but up 13% excluding the KUBio bioprocess facility order we took last year. In terms of business lines healthcare systems organic orders were up 8%, driven by strength in the imaging up 12% on strong CT and MI, and Ultrasound higher by 11%. Life science orders grew 4% organically with bioprocess and core imaging both up 5%. Excluding the prior-year KUBio order I just referred to, life science orders grew 11% with bioprocess higher by 22%. Revenues in the quarter of $4.5 billion were up 5%, healthcare systems revenues grew 4% organic with Ultrasound higher by 13% partly offset by imaging down 1%. Life sciences grew revenues 11% organically. Op profit was up 10% in the third quarter and up 12% organically. Strong volume and cost performance more than offset price and programs. Margin rates expanded 70 basis points in the quarter, gross margins improved 90 basis points in the quarter. Healthcare continues to execute, through three quarters they have delivered over 300 million against their 350 million of cost out commitments for the year. We expect to outperform the 50 basis point margin goal. China growth continues to improve, public tender activity up 20% in the third quarter and the U.S. and Europe markets are seeing stable growth. Next is transportation. The difficult cycle for transportation continued in the third quarter. North American carloads were down 5.4% driven by coal lower by 14.6%, petroleum down 23.4%. Intermodal volume was down 3.6%. August and September volumes did improve versus July and are still well below 2015. We expect the trend to continue through year-end. Orders in the third quarter of $695 million were down 21% and down 15% organically. Equipment orders of $109 million were down 23%, but up 18% organically on orders for five locomotives versus three year. Service orders of $586 million were down 21% driven by lower loco parts and mining. Backlog ended the quarter at $19.9 billion which was essentially flat with last year. Revenues in the third quarter of $1.249 billion were down 22%, down 17% organically with equipment lower by 22% and services lower by 13%. We shipped 200 loco versus 259 a year ago. Op profit of $309 million was down 18% on lower volume partially offset by positive mix, and the benefits of restructuring. Gross margins improved to 180 basis points and op profit margins were higher by 90 basis points. The business continues to grow its international businesses. Demand in the US continues to be a challenge while driving hard on products and service costs. We expect total year locomotive shipments of between 740 and 750 units. Energy Connections and Lighting, this is the first new presentation of the two segments together. The businesses have not changed. We are reporting orders for Lighting for the first time. Lighting has really has two businesses, the current business in the legacy core Lighting business, which we are in the process of restructuring. The current business represents professional lighting sales for North America and other key countries, energy management and control systems and software. Reported orders in backlog applied to only the current business as these are longer-term projects. Orders for the segments totaled $3 billion with Energy Connection orders of $2.7 billion and current orders of $328 million. Energy Connection orders were up 31% reported with core GE orders of $1.4 billion, down 14% organically. Power Conversion was down 33% on tough comparisons last year when our renewables orders were up four times. Industrial Solutions orders were up 6% in the market that was down 4% North America. Grid orders totaled $1.4 billion in the quarter. Total backlog finished at $11.5 billion. Current orders of $328 million were driven by LED retrofits including large orders from financial services. Revenues for Energy Connections were $2.6 billion, up 45%. Core energy connection revenues were down 9% organic with Power Conversion down 12% and Industrial Solutions down 7%. Grid revenues totaled $1.4 billion. Lighting revenues were down 8% with current growing revenues 10% and Legacy Lighting down 22% as the non-LED market continues to decline and we restructure and exit many markets. Operating profit in the quarter of $48 million was driven by $63 million of earnings from Energy Connections and $50 million loss in Lighting. Energy Connection had $64 million of profit from grid and a small loss in the core. The core is driven by lower volume, foreign exchange and mix partly offset by value again. The lighting loss is driven by build-out of our current business. The segment continues to make incremental progress, improving each of the last three quarters and we expect the fourth quarter will improve again relative to the third quarter. Next I'll cover on the GE Capital. Our vertical businesses earned $466 million in this quarter, up 33% from prior-year driven by lower impairments and energy finance partially offset by lower gains. GE Caps energy financing and industrial finance all had strong quarters and overall portfolio quality remains stable. In the third quarter the verticals funded $2.8 billion of un-book volume and enabled $4.2 billion of industrial orders. Other continuing operations generated $441 million loss in the quarter, principally driven by excess interest expense, restructuring costs related to portfolio of transformation and headquarter operating cost partially offset by tax benefits. These costs will continue to come down as excess debt matures and we rightsize the organizations structure. Discontinued operations incurred a loss of $100 million largely driven by marks on held-for-sale assets partially offset by tax benefits and other items. Overall, GE capital reported a $78 million loss. We ended the quarter with $103 billion of ENI, excluding liquidity with continuing ENI of $79 billion. Liquidity at the end of the quarter was $57 billion. Asset sales remained ahead of plan. During the quarter we closed $16 billion of transactions bringing the total closed transactions through the end of the quarter to $173 billion. We have signed agreement for an additional $12 billion in the third quarter, bringing the total signing to a $193 billion. We expect to be largest done with signings by the end of the year and we're on track for the 1.1 times price to tangible book that we originally has. GE Capital paid $5 billion of dividends during the third quarter. In October they paid an additional $2 billion and we expect an incremental $2 billion dividend before the end of the year, for a total of $20 billion in 2016 versus the $18 billion target. Overall the Capital team has continued to execute ahead of schedule on all aspects of the plan that we shared with you 18 months ago. We expect to be largely complete by the end of 2016. And with that I'll turn it back to Jeff.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Thanks Jeff. Now let me punch through our operating metrics for 2016. We are nearing the EPS range to $1.48 to $1.52. In this number we're offsetting $0.46 of FX headwind. We expect organic growth to be positive but near the low end of the range. In our corporate cost control and margin execution remain very strong. Free cash flow plus dispositions will be above plan mainly due to GE Capital dividends. Although the cash metrics remain on track and we're increasing the buyback from $18 billion to $22 billion and this makes the total cash return to investors $30 billion for the year ahead of plan. So in a time of volatility the GE model is performing. Finally let me reflect on the company's earnings going forward. When we launched the capital repositioning in April of 2015 we established the goal of $2 EPS by 2018. Since then our outlook for Oil & Gas has worsened and foreign exchange serves most global companies and GE is no exception. At the same time the rest of GE is performing well and we see that continuing in the future. And we should be even better than our original plan for buyback and Alstom continues to perform at or above plan. Going forward we plan to drive out more cost and supply chain program spend around product launches and corporate. And we will continue to grow our funding on digital transformation. Incremental leverage exists with the idea of pushing beyond our goals. We'll give you our 2017 outlook in December but all of our metrics for compensation purposes will continue to be linked to $2 of EPS in 2018 are aligned with investors. Matt, back over to you for questions.
Matthew Cribbins:
Thanks, Jeff. I'll now ask the operator to open the lines for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning, guys. Your final comments, Jeff, were interesting. I mean, A, you're not backing off the $2 number, which is a relief to some of us. But your comment about potentially stretching leverage, can you be a little bit more clear on what that means? Is there a comfort level around ratios that you have now that's increased versus maybe where you were before? Is there a comfort level around M&A and the stuff that's available? Just give us a little bit more there, please.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Yes, Scott really I didn’t mean to change at all the way we thought about leverage in the past. I think what I try to differentiate is the built-in toolboxes always assume that without leverage that we - the extent to which we do incremental buyback or M&A it should push about that point, so that was really the only context for the point on leverage.
Scott Davis:
Okay. So still a $2 plus-plus in using…
Jeffrey Immelt:
Yes, in other words we are trying to do the build, our intention is to not change the bridge the way we've articulated over the last couple of years.
Scott Davis:
Okay, okay; that's helpful. Then just as a quick follow-up, your Energy Connections is not a business I know very well, but the margin is pretty weak there. You said you're doing restructuring. What do you think a pro forma margin looks like in that business once you are done with your restructuring?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Well, here is what I say Scott is it's really three businesses and it starts with the Grid business which is combination of our Legacy Grid business and Alstom business. That business I think is or I think we think is performing actually quite well in around $64 million in the quarter, it's delivering on all the Alstom synergies that we talked about delivering. And then you have Power Conversion business which has a higher concentration in Oil & Gas historically than the balance of Energy Connections. That part of that of the Power Conversion businesses has been enormously challenged. We've replaced lot of that volume with renewables volume. The renewables volume was not as profitable as what we’re doing in Oil & Gas and so Power Conversion has been a challenge. We've been breakeven to lose a little bit of money here through the first three quarters. And then that leaves you with our legacy Industrial Solutions business which had a reasonably - a good orders quarter I mentioned earlier, up 6% on orders in the North American market that feels like it was down 4% but on execution and revenue in the quarter was less than what we expected it to deliver. That business ought to earn between $100 million and $140 million a year. The Power Conversion business until oil turns around I think it’s going to be a little bit of a challenge and we have a good outlook for our Grid business. So when we think about 2017 we expect the Energy Connections business to be a meaningful contributor to earnings growth where we move from this year to next.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, guys; good morning. Just to be clear on the new profit guide for the fourth quarter - for the year, I think the Street's around $18 billion. I think backing into using your free cash flow guidance and backing into what that would imply for a profit guide for the fourth quarter, somewhere in the $6 billion to $6.5 billion range. Is that the right number?
Jeffrey Immelt:
I think that's about right. That's within a row of apple Steve, that what we're at strategically.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, thank you very much. I just wanted to follow up on the components exactly behind the revenue growth guidance reduction. What proportion are coming from, say, Transport or Power? And then when you're thinking about the scope for recovery, timing and magnitude, how are you communicating on that in light of the weak ongoing order intake?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Well I think revenue is primarily Oil & Gas Julian, with maybe just a touch in some of the other ones but I would think about it in that context. And then again I would come back and talk through backlog growing, service backlog particularly strong as being a big driver of organic growth and the fact that kind of underlying Alstom orders that will play out in kind of '17 and beyond are actually quite strong as well. So I view orders as being kind of more or less in line with our expectations as a build-up for what we have to do in '17 and '18 and then Q4, I think we believe will be a pretty good orders quarter as well. I don’t know Jeff if you want to add to that?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes, let me address revenue. So when you think about the year we had 1% organic revenue in the third quarter. When you exclude Oil & Gas if you get back to the rest of the portfolio, in the third quarter our organic revenue grew 6%, on a third quarter year-to-date basis it grew 4% and we expect it to be really solid excellent gas, really solid organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter. So the 2 to 4, moving from 2% to 4% to 0% to 2% is mostly about where we think the revenue number is going to end up with Oil & Gas. Having said all of that, we've not changed our outlook on Oil & Gas our profit of the year ex-foreign exchange we still think plus or minus that's about 30% down.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. I just want to go, Jeff - either Jeff, really - to the extent that you can provide color on just how to think about the underpinnings of the bridge to 2018. What I mean by that is we're still at $1.50 midpoint for 2016, but we're now looking at segment OP of $1 billion lower. So we've got lower tax and other things going on, we see this change in goodwill at Alstom. I don't know if there's other moving parts. But can you give us any thoughts on the OP ramp in your business to 2018?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Why don’t I start and then Jeff you. So what I would say Jeff if you just context in 2016, I'd say headwind in Oil & Gas, headwind in foreign exchange in 2016. We think some of the foreign exchange actually comes back our way in ‘17 and ’18. We think Oil & Gas is going to continue as you look forward to be a drag. Our team is doing a really good job. We’re executing well. We’re taking cost out. But we’re not really forecasting a hockey-stick in Oil & Gas. The rest of the industrial portfolio really which grew 8% ex FX, I think it's well positioned to continue to drive good solid growth over the next few years. Alstom is on plan. We think the Alstom return still looks solid and the Alstom earnings outlook for ’17 and ’18 still looks solid. We're going to continue to execute on the buyback right. So those were the main - those are the main components. And then what I would add to that Jeff, is just a context of driving corporate cost lower, continuing to work hard on incremental opportunities on supply chain that we see and accelerating progress in gross margins. So I think the way you got to think about it is incremental intensity around cost that we see in our line of sight, sustained good growth in our industrial portfolio. Some of the FX headwind we've seen should come back to us over the next few years just by the way the contracts are written. Buyback at or ahead of plan and that realizes the context for an Oil & Gas business that we’re executing well but you know we’re trying to be a prudent about how we think about it over the next couple of years.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
I would just add. When you think about that framework or initially put it together clearly Oil & Gas cycle is the single biggest challenge against that framework and we’re going to be much more aggressive around cost as a result of it. The rest of the portfolio I think is what as Jeff described it and we’re going to try to be a little bit better on buyback.
Jeffrey Immelt:
And I think the last point guys, I just would make a point that, the guidance range of 1.48 to 1.52 this year that's with us eating $0.04 to $0.06 a share of FX in that number right. So I think underlying execution in the context of where we are is still pretty strong this year.
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citigroup.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning, guys. Jeff, you talked last quarter about services order growth rising to the mid-single digits in the second half of the year, and organic orders did turn positive this quarter after being negative last quarter, but were still pretty low at plus 1%. Do you still see a sustainable mid single-digit growth in orders given continued weakness in Oil & Gas and Transportation? Is the real issue still just the timing of AGP orders? And what are the chances that AGP orders slip in the current environment?
Jeffrey Immelt:
So Andrew I’d say a couple of things. Firstly on AGPs, I think we feel reasonably confident about the guide that we've given you on 135 to 150 for the year. So I don't think that at the moment is a point of concern for us. We did talk about mid-to-high single-digit service orders in the second half of the year. We still see that in the fourth quarter. We see mid-to-high single-digit service orders organically. What's really changed versus what we said at the end of second quarter it has been around equipment and most of the change in equipment has been about Oil & Gas where we’re about 3 billion lower in Oil & Gas orders and that's really about three projects, it’s really three distinct projects that have been delayed or suspended has changed our outlook. And so equipment is going to be softer than what we said at the end of second quarter. I don't think there is any change to how we see service orders here.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Okay thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks and good morning, all. I just want to go back to Oil & Gas. Last December you guys had talked about more room in the $1 billion of cost-out, which was like $600 million in 2015, $400 million in 2016; and you thought you might be able to raise that $400 million to $800 million. Sounds like you've just said you are on track to that for this year. But as I start looking at this worsening environment, you say you're going to continue to be aggressive in costs. It starts to really raise the question for me of how much more you can do here, other than ongoing Lean and productivity in terms of real, major thinning out going forward to offset what are continuing really significant pressures. I know you've talked about it generally, but any more precision on that front as we look further than the fourth quarter would be helpful.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
So, Steve, your math is exactly right. So we said, and I think I said 700 million to 800 million of incremental cost of this year on Oil & Gas to three quarters they delivered about 530 million of that. They will deliver all the actions to get to 800. We might not realize all 800, because some of those savings were volume related. In other words, if the volumes were not there you don’t actually get to hit the cost savings, although when the volume comes back in a lapse will be there. I think Lorenzo and the team would say, there are additional incremental cost actions we are going to continue to work into 2017. I think you're right. I think the depth of which you can continue to cut cost is somewhat limited, but there is still incremental additional actions that the team contain. I think our comment on more cost actions is generally is more of a statement across the entirety of the company given what's happened in Oil & Gas, around program cost, structure, corporate. There are more opportunities that we’re going to run to, to try to compensate for the fact that Oil & Gas is we expect going to earn less than what we originally thought when we gave it $2 framework 18 months ago.
Jeffrey Immelt:
I would - I think Jeff said it exactly right. And then you know what I would say Steve is look, the – our overall context for Oil & Gas hasn't changed. We still think it's a really good GE business, leverages the GE store and I have every confidence we’re going to come out of the cycle, a better than we win in. But I think, I would echo what Jeff said, I think we continue to see good opportunities in corporate. We also continue to see good opportunities around our footprint and supply chain. You know, we've had a chance now to look across the Alstom and GE kind of factory base and things like that and we see some incremental opportunities that we think are going allow us both up from sourcing standpoint and a supply-chain standpoint, and will be able to do that and still do the investments we need to make in digital as we go forward. So, I think that's the right context.
Operator:
The next question is from Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Morning, guys. On cash flow, progress collections I think you said was still a pressure. It would seem like that should be close to bottoming. What's that going to be this year, and where do you see that heading? And just any other metrics or dynamics you've been working on cash flow-wise in 2Q, just maybe give us an update.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Well, progress was a bit of a challenge in the third quarter for exploration. We definitely delivered better working capital performance in the third quarter, progress as a little bit a drag, that reflects equipment orders and that's largely where we thought Oil & Gas might be in third and fourth quarter where we are seeing now. Now. so have - two or three – as I mentioned earlier, two or three big orders Porsche, meaningfully - meaningful size, orders that would have brought a lot of cash with it. We’re down year-to-date. The fourth quarter will be better than the run rates through the first three quarters and we expect progress actually contribute in the fourth quarter to our CFOA performance that we talked about earlier.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning. Not going to ask you a question on Oil & Gas; just to shift a little bit to Predix. In your presentation you say that the number of partners has quadrupled on a sequential basis. Are there any revenue and profit implications from that going to next year? Because it does seem to be running quite a bit ahead of expectations.
Jeffrey Immelt:
I wouldn't change it yet. Andrew, we will talk more about this at Minds and Machines in a little while, but clearly on the partners side with Predix, I think we’re ahead of where we had envisioned, but we will update those numbers in the middle of November, when we when we go to mine machine.
Andrew Obin:
But partners does have revenue implications, right? Because there --
Jeffrey Immelt:
Yes, no, seriously the - you know for instance, we partner with people. They immediately add developers and they have revenue goals, so we expect - we expect this to be a good boost to how we think about revenue over Predix over the both short and long-term.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes, I would just add. Listen, we had a goal here to sign 50 partners for over 200. That's really positive momentum both from a technology perspective and ultimately longer-term in terms of actually generating orders in revenue. We are way ahead on where we thought would be on people developing on Predix. Jeff said, all these metrics to be updated Minds + Machines, but I think there is reasonably good momentum here.
Operator:
The next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks; good morning, everyone. I wanted to go back to Jeff's question from earlier. When I look at what you guys gave out in EPG, you had about 5% Industrial growth ex-Alstom coming through in the $2 earnings bridge. So we're running this year, call it down mid to high single digits. So have you guys updated that number? Is that number going to be running closer to 2% to 3% in that bridge? And then my second question really is around the buybacks. The buybacks are running ahead of schedule. I think you've done about $25 billion by the end of this year of the $35 billion. So is there upside to that number? Thank you.
Jeffrey Immelt:
So, we will update you on the bridge. Jeff will update you on the bridge when we get to EPG.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
When we get into year-end.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Yes, I am sorry, the outlook meeting in December, we’ll go back to the bridge. We’ll go back through all three pieces that we've shared with you before. I don't think we see at the moment any real change from the Alstom. We may be a bit better on buyback accretion which is partially answered your second question. And we'll walk you through the dynamics in the organic portfolio growth over that period of time. So more detail to come on that. On buyback, I think we’re absolutely ahead of plan. I think the $4 billion incremental buyback year - in the year I think is important. As you know, we are constantly going back and evaluating our capital allocation plans, most of which we've shared with you on what makes sense, and to the extent it make sense to be more aggressive with buyback we will do that. On the leverage question, we’re mostly focused around M&A, so I wouldn't read through on that and leverage equals buyback. I think that we had in our capital allocation plan we had capital available for M&A, buybacks and other reasons and right now we’re being a little bit more aggressive in buyback.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Deane Dray with RBC.
Deane Dray:
Thank you; good morning, everyone. Like to stay on that capital allocation theme, Jeff Bornstein, right where you finished off there. Because the plan had been to toggle between buybacks and M&A depending on the returns. Are you implying at all that there's fewer opportunities in M&A today versus the attractiveness in GE stock in terms of - increasing the buyback? And then also on M&A, maybe some additional color on the LM wind turbine blade acquisition. Is this the same derisking of the supply chain we saw in Avio? Maybe expand on that, why it gives you better strength in emerging markets.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes, so on the capital allocation question, we are not changing any way in terms of how we are thinking about to trade between M&A and buyback, and certainly with the stock is $28 to$29 the buyback looks quite attractive to us. We’re not short ideas on M&A I don't think. We're constantly evaluating M&A opportunities I think just what we announced recently here between SLM and Arcam which is an investment that’s going to huge payback longer-term and most recently the LM acquisition. We are continuing to evaluate M&A opportunities. So I wouldn't read too is we are short ideas on M&A, which is I think would like to be more aggressive around the stock given the outperformance by GE Capital in terms of what they are returning to us and operationally you know, what we’re able to do through our capital allocation model that was unrelated to M&A and leverage.
Jeffrey Immelt:
So I would just say Deane, I think Avio was the right way to think about LM. We see good opportunities in the supply chain. We think the next few years visibly we have on wind is pretty solid in terms of PTC and our global demand. We think between us and LM, we've got good technology that can really innovate in the industry and what we saw on Avio we are able to keep the non-GE base in Avio and we think we can do the same thing with LM. Lastly your question it really bolsters us in China and India and lot of the emerging markets where we see growth potential for us in the future. So we look at as a reasonably low risk investment where a lot of the leverage on our control and we have I think a disproportionate upside if we execute well.
Deane Dray:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our final question comes from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks for fitting me in here, guys. Good morning. First of all, just a clarification on the buyback. The $4 billion extra this year, that's not a pullforward from next year? We're still looking at 14, 15 for next year. But my primary question is on the margin side. Obviously good news on gross margins, good news from price cost. But what's driving the SG&A inflation, because there's about 150 bps of higher SG&A? So if you can just address those two questions, thanks.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Okay. So first on a buyback let me be absolute. The $4 billion buyback is an increase of the model we gave you that went through 2018. That we are buying 4 billion more stock than we said we would when we gave you the plan through 2018. On SG&A so in the third quarter structural SG&A was up 1%, that was 12.6% of sales, third quarter year-to-date were actually down 4%, about 30% of sales. It was a bit of a drag in the quarter probably because SG&A was up 1% and volume was essentially down slightly on the calculation basis. So it ended up being about 10 basis point drag in the quarter. Other inflation that sits in the other line is associated with inflation on based cost, and most of that is EOP. There is other indirect expenses that also incur inflation and that's what you see on outline. Other inflation ex-FX, if you take out the impact of FX of some of those marks go through the other line in that walk with a negative 60 basis points as opposed to what we showed you in the morning.
Nigel Coe :
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks.
Matthew Cribbins:
Okay. Couple of quick announcements Jeff before you wrap up. The replay of today's call will be available this afternoon on our Investor website. We'll be holding the Minds and Machines conference in San Francisco on November 2016 and our annual outlook meeting on December 14. Again we will be holding our fourth quarter earnings call on January 20. Jeff?
Jeffrey Immelt :
Great, Matt. Thanks. Just a couple points to wrap up, I think we plan to have a solid Q4 and wrap up really solid 2016. Looking forward I think we are being realistic about the environment in the resource sector, Oil & Gas, but don't be mistaken we still I think this is a core GE business in one where our teams managing it extremely well through the cycle. The rest of GE is executing very well. Alstom remains on track in 2017 and 2018. The buybacks ahead of plan. We got a really good line of site to incrementally take more cost out of the company and be even more efficient. And all of our compensation plans whether it's long-term incentive plan or the AIP which is IC plan all tied to the bridge that we showed you in 2015 and where we march and 2016, 2017, 2018. So we are aligned with investors Matt and we're - I think we're quite confident in the performance of the company.
Matthew Cribbins:
Great. Thank you for joining.
Operator:
This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer David L. Joyce - Senior Vice President; President & CEO-GE Aviation Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc. Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric second quarter 2016 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Ellen, and I will be your conference coordinator today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Good morning and thanks for joining our second quarter earnings call. Today I'm joined by
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Matt. GE had a good quarter in a slow growth and volatile environment. I would describe our markets in two segments really. The resource sector remains tough, putting pressure on our Oil & Gas and Transportation businesses. Meanwhile, the rest of our markets have plenty of growth available. The strength of GE is our diversity, and we remain on track for our 2016 framework and our bridge to 2018. In the second quarter, our portfolio execution was a real highlight. This includes GE Capital de-designation, the Appliances sale with a substantial gain, and the sale of GE Asset Management. From an operations standpoint, we had EPS of $0.51, and that is growth of 65%. Industrial EPS was up 35% excluding gains and restructuring. Margins were flat ex-Alstom and up 10 basis points year to date, and we're on track for our margin goals for the year. Alstom was $0.01 of share in the second quarter, and we're on track to hit our plan in 2016. CFOA was $10.7 billion, and we're on track for our CFOA goals for the year. Industrial operating profit and organic revenue growth were down slightly in the first half, consistent with our expectations. However, we are positioned for strong organic growth in the second half. And we were able to hit our earnings goals despite a $0.03 headwind in foreign exchange year to date. Looking forward, we have no change to our framework for the year. We still expect organic revenue growth of 2% to 4%, with strong organic growth in the second half. We expect margins to expand and Alstom to deliver $0.05 a share. We still expect free cash flow plus dispositions to be $29 billion to $32 billion for the year, including a capital dividend of $18 billion. Year to date we've returned $18 billion to investors, and we're on track for $26 billion in the year. So despite the macro volatility, we are delivering. Orders were $27 billion, down 2%, down 16% organically. Alstom orders were $4.5 billion in the quarter and $7.5 billion for the first half. Backlog grew by $4 billion from the first quarter of 2016 and sit at $320 billion, a record. Core service backlog grew by 11%. Orders pricing was down slightly versus a year ago. Power and Aviation pricing was positive, but Oil & Gas continues to be pressured. Equipment orders were down 11%, which was 30% organically. We saw sustained pressure in Oil & Gas and Transportation, while Power and Aviation had tough comps versus a year ago. There were a few highlights. Aviation had another excellent airshow with more than $25 billion in commitments, and we have 34 H turbines in backlog. Total service orders were up 9%, with solid growth in Aviation and Renewables. Globally, the wind markets are strong, and we expect solid growth for the year. Our pipeline of activity in Oil & Gas is improving, and we're working on several large global loco [locomotive] deals to offset sluggishness in the U.S. Our global orders are $31 billion year to date, about flat versus a year ago, including Alstom. We've increased Alstom backlog about by about $2 billion since the acquisition. Digital orders ex-AGP were up 15% in the second quarter, with revenue up 17%. AGP revenue was up 2% and orders were down. We expect 50% growth in AGPs in the second half. We now have 54 partners and 12,000 developers, which is ahead of plan. Recently, we announced a partnership with Microsoft to put Predix in Azure and with Huawei to expand in China. In addition, we launched major customer collaborations with Schindler, PSEG, and the city of Tianjin. We're on track to hit $7 billion in digital orders this year. In the second half we export orders to be about flat. Service orders will be up and equipment will be down slightly. And on balance orders are coming in about where we expected. I wanted to give you a little bit more context for revenue since our plan is back-end loaded. In the first half, organic revenue was down 1%. We expect the second half will strengthen, to be up about 5%. We see organic growth at 2% to 4% for 2016, likely trending close to the bottom end of the range. There are three main dynamics. Oil & Gas faces major cyclical headwinds, but by the second half they have easier comps. We have line of sight to several big projects in the second half, which will help build backlog for 2017. Power is shipping 65% of its gas turbine volume in the second half, including 50% more AGPs than last year, and most of these units are in backlog. The rest of the company is sustaining organic growth in the 5% range, comparable to the run rate, and this should continue in the second half. We have several businesses that have sustained strong organic growth rates in the first half. Healthcare is improving, with Life Sciences up 12%, China is up 19%, and ultrasound is up 9%. Renewables grew by 27%, and Services grew by 5% with momentum in Power and Aviation. Including Alstom, global revenue grew by 12% in the quarter, including significant growth in Europe, India, Africa, and ASEAN. Bottom line, we're seeing organic growth accelerating in the second half. Margins are trending consistent with our expectations. Excluding foreign exchange, core margins were up 40 basis points in total and with segment gross margins also at 40 basis points. We're making great progress on value gap and cost productivity. We expect this to improve in the second half. Service margins are 90 basis points year to date excluding Alstom. Next an update on our Alstom execution, as I mentioned earlier, we remain on track for $0.05 a share in 2016, and we're on track for $1.1 billion in synergies for the year. We're seeing significant benefits, including coordinated technical and cost performance on gas turbines, the system performance is exceeding our expectations, and Alstom equipment backlog in Power is up 22%. This improved market acceptance for GE in the Grid and steam turbine business. Our customers see these as good fits for GE, and we're winning incremental business. As expected, we're seeing strong cost execution in sourcing and plant restructuring. Services integration in Power is ahead of plan. We see significant opportunities for upgrades in coal to improve energy efficiency. So we really expect to see favorability in Alstom revenue synergies that we didn't count on when we did the deal. We see Alstom favorably so far and expect this momentum to continue. So we have a lot going on with the integration of Alstom, but the team is doing well. Our cash performance was good overall, but our Industrial cash performance was impacted by a range of issues and trailed our expectations. Capital dividends are now $15 billion, on track for their $18 billion goal, including another $4 billion this week. We face several CFOA headwinds in the first half that should unwind during the year. We have a large inventory build behind new NPI with LEAP, H, and wind products. These are all shipping in the second half. Alstom exacerbates our profile as their earnings, synergies, and tax benefits are also back-half loaded. We still expect Alstom to be a neutral on cash for the year. We expect earnings to accelerate in the second half, with substantial improvement in working capital. And finally, we had about $1 billion of comp and tax payments in the first half that won't repeat. We've returned $18 billion to investors in the first half through buyback and dividends and are on track for $26 billion for the year. Free cash flow is a big metric on the company comp plans and the team is incented to hit these goals. Now I want to introduce David Joyce, who will give you an update on our great Aviation business and our wins at Farnborough.
David L. Joyce - Senior Vice President; President & CEO-GE Aviation:
Thanks, Jeff. Let me start with a quick perspective on our performance over the last three years. Aviation has been a strong segment for GE, with good leverage, annual growth rate and operating profit of 13% on 6% growth in revenue. Over that same period, we've been investing in the next generation of products and technologies, growing our installed base of engines and service, positioning our supply chain and business for the transition in new products, building our digital services for both GE and our customers, while strengthening our operating profit of the business by 250 basis points. Performance has been very consistent with our strategic imperatives. And as we look at 2016, we see another strong year, led by the commercial environment, which is depicted on the next page
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks, David. I'll start with the second quarter summary. Revenues were $33.5 billion, up 15% in the quarter. Industrial revenues were up 16% to $30.7 billion. You can see on the right side that the Industrial segments were up 7% reported and down 1% organic. Alstom revenue in the quarter was $3.2 billion. Industrial operating plus vertical EPS was $0.51, up 65%. The operating EPS number of $0.39 includes other continuing GE Capital activity, including headquarter runoff and other exit-related items that I'll cover on the GE Capital page. Continuing EPS of $0.36 includes the impact of non-operating pension. The net EPS of $0.30 includes discontinued operations. The total disc-ops impact was a charge of $544 million in the quarter, driven by GE Capital exit costs. As Jeff said, we generated $10.7 billion of CFOA in the half, up from $3.9 billion last year, driven by the increased dividend from GE Capital. Industrial CFOA was $400 million for the half, down 89%. This was driven by a number of known items, including our three-year long-term incentive program payout, non-repeat of last year's NBC settlement, negative Alstom CFOA in the quarter, and timing on our service billings. While we planned to be down in the first half, we underperformed our own expectations by roughly $1 billion, driven by lower collections, accelerated inventory build, and earlier closing of Appliances transaction in the quarter than we originally planned. Fortunately, most of this is timing between the first half and the second half. In the second half, we are planning for income plus depreciation and amortization of around $8 billion, working capital improvement of $3 billion to $4 billion, driven by second half shipments and improvement in AR performance, particularly delinquency, and other timing items such as tax of $1 billion to $2 billion. That walks you to the total framework of $12 billion to $14 billion of Industrial CFOA, no change to our framework for the year. In addition, in the second quarter GE borrowed $5 billion from GE Capital, which will mature in the fourth quarter of this year. This makes a ton of sense for the company as we already own the excess debt and the borrowing cost is lower than our dividend yield. The proceeds were used for an accelerated share repurchase program launched in June. This helps accelerate our buyback within the year. The GE tax rate was 15% and the GE Capital tax rate was 27%, which for the GE Capital tax rate reflects a benefit on a pre-tax continuing loss. For the year, we expect the GE rate to be in the mid-teens. On the right side are the segment results. As I mentioned, Industrial segment revenues were up 7% reported and down 1% organically. Foreign exchange translation of $148 million was a one-point headwind, and lost revenue from disposition was a four-point impact. Each of those impacts were more than offset by a 12-point revenue increase from Alstom. Industrial segment op profit was down 5% reported and 6% organically. The organic number excludes the impact of $13 million of FX translation headwind. We also had an additional $120 million of FX transactional impacts, which is not adjusted for in the organic calculation. This is related to remeasurement and mark-to-market on open hedges, principally in the Oil & Gas, Renewables, and Power segments. Including corporate operating costs, Industrial op profit was down 2% reported and down 4% organically. As you see at the bottom of the page, as I mentioned earlier, Industrial operating plus vertical EPS was $0.51, up 65%. That includes $0.11 of gains net of restructuring this year versus zero a year ago. In the box we provided the V% adjusted for industrial gains and restructuring. Excluding those impacts in both years, Industrial operating EPS was up 35%, and total Industrial operating plus vertical EPS was up 29%. Next I'll talk about one-time items. We had $0.09 of charges related to Industrial restructuring and other items that were taken at corporate. Charges were $1.2 billion on a pre-tax basis, with about $400 million related to Oil & Gas and $300 million related to Alstom synergy investments and accounting items. The $0.09 was a little bit lower than what we were estimating, driven by timing of restructuring projects. As you know, the Appliance deal closed in the quarter, contributing about $0.20 of gain. At the bottom of the page, you can see the profile for the year. We continue to expect gains in restructuring to offset for the year. In the third quarter, we have the Asset Management disposition and some smaller transactions in the fourth quarter that will contribute an additional $0.05, bringing total year gains to approximately $0.25. Next I'll cover each of the segments, starting with the Power business. Orders in the quarter totaled $7.7 billion, up 41%. Excluding Alstom orders of $2.9 billion, core orders were down 11%, with equipment down 26%, and services lower by 4%. Core equipment orders were lower primarily due to units mixing to smaller aero and steam units, partially offset by four additional H orders year over year. Total gas turbine orders were 16 units versus 18 a year ago. Through the half, core equipment orders are up 1%, with heavy-duty frames up 25%. Core equipment backlog excluding Alstom grew 37% year over year to $8.3 billion, driven by H technology strength. Our H backlog stands at 34 units inclusive of five new orders, offset by six unit shipments. Service orders excluding Alstom were down 4% on lower AGPs of 24 versus 39 last year and lower aero services. Through the first half, AGP orders totaled 49 versus 55 last year. For the total year, we remain on plan for 135 to 150 AGPs versus 119 a year ago. Through the half, total upgrades grew 18% to 153 versus 130 units a year ago, driven by Dry Low NOx, compressor upgrades, and flange-to-flange upgrades. Year to date, total service orders grew 2%, led by Power Services up 5%. Service backlog excluding Alstom ended the quarter at $54.3 billion, which is up 5% versus prior year. Alstom orders in the quarter were $2.9 billion, including $1.7 billion of equipment orders. In the second quarter we took an order for the Hassyan super-critical steam coal plant in Dubai as well as orders for five more HRSGs [Heat Recovery Steam Generator]. The Alstom equipment backlog is up 22% since we closed the acquisition in the Power Systems business. Alstom service orders of $1.1 billion included eight steam upgrades. Alstom service backlog ended the quarter at $9.8 billion. Power revenue in the second quarter totaled $6.6 billion, up 31%. Excluding Alstom, core revenues of $5.2 billion grew 2%, with equipment revenue down 5% on lower BOP associated with last year's large Egypt equipment deal, partially offset by higher H shipments. We shipped 26 gas turbines versus 24 last year, including six H units. Service revenues excluding Alstom grew 7%, driven by Power Services up 12%. We shipped 28 AGPs versus 26 a year ago. Alstom revenue of $1.5 billion included $600 million of equipment and $900 million of services. Operating profit was higher by 9% in the quarter. Excluding Alstom, core op profit of $1.1 billion was up slightly on positive value gap and cost-out, partially offset by H mix. Margins on the six H shipments were roughly breakeven, and we expect shipments to be margin-positive beginning in the third quarter. Margin rates excluding Alstom contracted 40 basis points. Alstom earned $89 million of op profit in the quarter and was higher than planned on better synergy execution. We continue to see strong demand for the H technology. Our cost position continues to improve on the H, and we expect to have positive margins in the third quarter on the platform. We're also pulling through Alstom technology, including steam units, generators, and HRSGs. We're on track to ship about 115 gas turbines for the year, with a heavy fourth quarter. The Alstom integration is also on track, and the business will deliver about $800 million of synergies or better for the year. Next on Renewables, orders in the quarter of $2 billion were down 6%. Orders through the first half grew 29%. The business took orders for 637 wind turbines in the quarter versus 888 wind turbines in the second quarter of last year. For the first half, core orders excluding Alstom for wind were higher by 15%. Two-thirds of the turbines ordered were for our new two-megawatt and three-megawatt machines. In addition, we booked orders for 218 wind turbine upgrades. Alstom orders in the quarter were $206 million. Backlog finished the quarter at $12.6 billion, including $5.1 billion associated with Alstom. GE core backlog grew 26% versus the second quarter of 2015. Revenues in the quarter grew 28% to $2.1 billion, with core GE revenue up 14%. We shipped 856 wind turbines versus 806 last year. Alstom contributed $221 million of revenue. Operating profit of $128 million was down 11% year over year. GE core earnings of $127 million were down 12%, driven by launch costs for the new NPIs. Margins in the quarter contracted 200 basis points in the core. Through the half, the business is on track notwithstanding the foreign exchange challenges. Alstom synergies of $38 million through the second quarter has the business on track to deliver $100 million-plus of synergies for the year. The market reception of the new win products has been solid, and we're progressing down the cost curve. We think the outlook for the onshore wind business is very encouraging. Next is Aviation. The business delivered another strong quarter, and David gave you an update on where the market stands. Orders in the quarter of $6.4 billion were down 15%, with equipment orders down 37%, driven by no repeat of two large 9X orders in 2015 from Qatar and ANA. This quarter we booked $1.4 billion of commercial engine orders, including a ViaJet (27:35) order for 200 LEAP-1B engines. In addition, we took orders for 348 CFM engines, 21 CF6 engines, and 29 GEnx engines. Not included in the second quarter results and as David mentioned, we won more than $25 billion of orders and commitments at the Farnborough Air Show. Military equipment orders were up 49%, driven by large orders from the Korean military for F414 engines and T700 helicopter engines, and the Indian Navy for 14 LM2500 engines. Total equipment backlog of $34 billion was down 3% versus last year. Service orders grew 8% in the second quarter, with commercial services up 9%, driven by spares up 5% and CSA orders higher by 17%. Military services grew 11%. Total service backlog was higher by 14% in the quarter to $122 billion. Revenues of $6.5 billion were up 4%. Equipment revenues were down 7%, with commercial equipment down 2%. We shipped 78 GEnx engines versus 86 a year ago. We also shipped 11 LEAP-1A engines. Military equipment was down 31%, as we expected, on lower engine shipments. Service revenues grew 16% in the quarter, with our commercial spares rate up 3% and CSAs up 20%. Operating profit was higher by 6%, driven by services volume, positive value gap, and cost productivity. Margins in the quarter expanded 40 basis points. For the half, op profit grew 11% and margins expanded by 80 basis points. The Aviation team continues to execute well, and as mentioned, we shipped our first 11 LEAP engines and are on schedule to ship about 110 for the year. Next is Oil & Gas. The environment remains very, very tough. U.S. rig and well counts continued to contract over the second quarter. Rig counts are down 55% year over year and down 79% from year-end 2014. Well counts are down 58% in the U.S. versus the second quarter of last year and down 76% from the third quarter of 2014, their peak. Based on the latest industry expectations, CapEx spending in 2016 is expected to be down about 14% for IOCs, 9% for NOCs, and about 40% for North American independents. We continue to focus on remaking the cost structure of the business and improving our competitiveness. Orders in the quarter were down 34%. Equipment orders were down 58% versus 2015, with all segments lower. Service orders contracted 10% versus last year. Backlog ended the quarter at $22.7 billion, up 1% from the first quarter and down 7% from the second quarter of last year. Year-over-year equipment backlog was down 31%, but the services backlog is actually up 15%. Revenues in the quarter of $3.2 billion were down 22%, with equipment revenues down 31% and services revenue down 13%. All segments were lower year over year on equipment and service revenue except the turbo machinery business, where the service business grew revenues 4% in the quarter. Operating profit of $320 million was down 48% versus 2015, driven by lower volume and negative fixed cost leverage, partially offset by $140 million of structural cost-out. The team remains focused on their plan for about $800 million of cost actions in the year. Through the half, approximately $280 million of benefits have been realized, with stronger paybacks expected in the second half of 2016. Oil & Gas is down 40% organically in op profit through the half and continues to execute against a framework of down 30% organic op profit for the year. Next is Healthcare. The Healthcare team is executing well and delivered a strong second quarter and first half. Orders grew 3% and 4% organically. Geographically, organic orders were higher by 2% in the U.S., 9% in China, 11% in Europe, and 17% in ASEAN. Growth in those markets was partially offset by Latin America, which was down 9% organically on weakness in Brazil. In terms of business lines, healthcare system orders grew 2% reported and 3% organic, driven by ultrasound up 8% on strength in the U.S. and Europe. Imaging orders were higher by 2% organically, with both CT and MI up double digits, partially offset by X-ray and mammo weakness. Life Sciences continues to grow smartly, with orders up 12% organically. Bioprocess grew 26% and core imaging grew 6%. In the second quarter, our Life Sciences business delivered its first and China's largest biopark with a KUBio product. We believe these modularlized bioprocess facilities will be the future of all biologics. Revenues in the quarter of $4.5 billion were up 4% and up 6% organic. Healthcare systems revenues were higher by 4% organically, driven by imaging and ultrasound, up 8% and 7% respectively. Life Sciences continued strong revenue growth, up 8% reported and up 11% organic. Operating profit in the quarter was up 11% to $782 million. Strong volume and cost productivity more than offset negative price and investments for digital NPI and supply chain costs. Margin rates expanded 110 basis points in the quarter and they're up 80 basis points for the half. The Healthcare team is driving technology competitiveness, transforming their portfolio digitally, and reducing the product and service costs. The team has delivered roughly half the cost-out target of $350 million for the year. The team is on track to deliver or beat the 50 basis points of margin improvement that we set out as a goal for the year. Our Transportation business continues to deal with a very difficult cycle. In the second quarter, North American commodity carloads were down 11%, driven by coal down 27% and petroleum down 20%. Intermodal volume was down 5%. Parked locomotives have more than doubled over the last year. Orders of $678 million were down 51% in the quarter. Equipment orders of $117 million were down 77% on orders for 21 locos this year versus 120 units a year ago. Service orders of $561 million were lower by 36%, driven by lower loco parts, partly due to the parking and no repeat of a movement planner order we took last year. Backlog ended at $20.7 billion, which is down 2%, with equipment backlog down 4% and services down 1%. Revenues were lower by 13% and down 6% organically, reflecting the Signaling disposition. Organically, equipment revenues were up 3% on higher loco shipments, 222 units versus 191 last year, offset by lower services revenue, which was down 14%. Op profit of $273 million was down 18% and down 14% organically, driven by lower volume and unfavorable mix, offset partially by favorable value gap and cost-out. No doubt, the U.S. environment is challenging. The Transportation team is focused on growing our international business, driving cost out, and executing on our digital strategy. In our Energy Connections business, as we've discussed on the last two calls, organic performance reflects Power Conversion and Industrial Solutions only. GE's Digital Energy business is treated as a disposition to the Grid JV. Also, as we've discussed, we consolidate 100% of the Grid JV's revenue but only 50% of their operating profit. Orders for the business totaled $3 billion in the second quarter, up 45%. Orders for Power Conversion and Industrial Solutions totaled $1.6 billion, down 2% organic, and Grid orders totaled $1.4 billion. Core orders were driven by Power Conversion, down 17% organically, on weakness in Oil & Gas and no repeat of a large wind order for converters last year, offset by 1% organic growth in Industrial Solutions. Backlog finished the quarter at $11.9 billion, with Grid Solutions at $8.2 billion. Revenues in the quarter of $2.7 billion were higher by 55%. Grid Solutions revenues totaled $1.4 billion. Core revenues were down 4% organically. The business is beginning to make progress. Operating profit improved from a loss of $85 million in the first quarter to a profit of $35 million in the second quarter. The core business recorded a loss of $9 million on lower Oil & Gas volume, higher digital spend and dispositions, and the Grid Solutions business earned $45 million in the quarter. Alstom synergies remain on track to deliver $200 million-plus of benefits for the year, and we expect the business will continue to improve earnings sequentially in the second half. Next on Appliance & Lighting, we closed the Appliance transaction on June 6. And as I mentioned on the one-time items page, we had a pre-tax gain of $3.1 billion, which translated to $0.20 of EPS. In the quarter, revenue was down 25%, driven by Appliances down 31% due to the sale. Lighting revenues were down 11%, with the legacy lighting business down 23% and the LED product line up 4%. Segment profit of $96 million was down 42%, driven by the sale of Appliances and our investment in Kern. Going forward, we'll be reporting Energy Connections and Lighting as a single segment. Last, I'll cover GE Capital. As mentioned earlier, on June 28, GE Capital was de-designated as a systemically important financial institution, marking a major step in our GE Capital exit plan. Our vertical businesses earned $452 million this quarter, down 15% from prior year, including higher base earnings offset by lower gains and higher insurance reserve provisions resulting from updates to our models on our runoff long-term care book. Portfolio quality remains stable. In the second quarter, the verticals wrote $2.1 billion of on-book volume, 75% of which supported our Industrial businesses. In addition, GE Capital arranged third-party financing which supported an additional $1.1 billion of Industrial orders. Other continuing operations generated a $1.1 billion loss in the quarter, principally driven by excess interest expense, preferred dividend payments, headquarter operating costs, restructuring, and asset liability management actions. Discontinued operations incurred a loss of $0.5 billion, largely driven by marks on held-for-sale assets. Overall, GE Capital reported a $1.1 billion loss. GE Capital ended the quarter with $116 billion of ENI excluding liquidity, with continuing ENI of $79 billion. Liquidity at the end of the second quarter was $56 billion, which was down $50 billion from the first quarter, driven by debt maturities and lower deposits as a result of the sale of GE Capital Money Bank in the U.S. and the IPO of our check platform. Asset sales remained ahead of plan. During the quarter we closed $12 billion of transactions, bringing the total closed transactions through the end of the quarter to $158 billion. In July, we've added $10 billion of closings, driven by the sale of our French and German CLL businesses, bringing the total to date of closes to $168 billion. In addition to closings, we signed agreements to sell $16 billion of ENI in the second quarter, taking our total signings to $181 billion during the first half of the year. Our price to tangible book on deals signed to date is 1.2 times, and we are on track to deliver the 1.1 times price-to-book we estimated when we announced the restructuring. Of the remaining $25 billion assets to go, we anticipate that we will run off about $10 billion of assets where it makes more economic sense to do so. The remaining assets are comprised of our Italian bank, our French mortgage book, and other smaller portfolios and investments. That will be largely signed, we believe, by the end of the third quarter of this year. GE Capital paid $3.5 billion of dividends during the quarter, for a total of $11 billion during the first half of the year. In July, GE Capital has paid an additional $4 billion, bringing our year-to-date total to $15 billion, well ahead of our original plan. We remain on track to meet our $18 billion target of dividends for the year. Overall, Keith [Sherin] and the GE Capital team have continued to execute well ahead of schedule on all aspects of the plan. We expect to be largely completed by the end of 2016. And with that, I'll turn it back to Jeff.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jeff. We really have no change for the operating framework in the year. There are always a few puts and takes, but we remain on track. We will hit our $1.45 to $1.55 EPS goal despite FX headwinds of $0.02 to $0.04 in the year, and we expect to deliver $29 billion to $32 billion of free cash flow plus dispositions, in line with our plans. I thought we'd give you some context for the company beyond 2016, particularly given the volatility of our markets. First, Alstom is on track, and I expect us to hit all of our goals. Transportation and Oil & Gas are in tough cycles. They represent 15% of our earnings, and it's hard to see them improving in 2017. But at the same time, Power and Aviation remain strong. They're 60% of our earnings, and we see consistent performance year over year. They have very strong service franchises, productivity programs, and our market positions are growing. Healthcare, Energy Connections, and Renewables have generally favorable markets and real opportunities for growth and margin expansion. In particular, Healthcare feels sustainable, with diverse growth and market momentum. These businesses represent 25% of our earnings. And we'll continue to execute on GE Capital and Corporate. So really, 85% of our company is in great shape, winning in markets with high visibility, and so we remain on track for the 2018 bridge to $2.00 a share of EPS. The strength of our diversified model is key in a volatile environment. Matt, now over to you for questions.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Thanks, Jeff. I'll ask that the operator opens the lines for questions.
Operator:
Our first question is from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
When I look at your top line forecast for the back half of the year, and considering I don't think the world is getting better, and I think that's going to be part of my question for you, but how do we get to that 2% core growth number? Is it just comps in Oil & Gas get easier and that just provides a tailwind, or is there something else you're seeing in macro that should make us feel a little bit better about the world?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So, Scott, I'll start and then maybe toss it over to Jeff. But again, I think just like we said on the first quarter call, we think Power really explains the first half/second half split. As you can look in the presentation, the year-over-year comps are better. The backlog is strong. You're going to ship most of the gas turbine units in the second half plus the 50% growth in the AGPs. Oil & Gas has got easier comps, but we're not really counting on that much out of Oil & Gas. And then the rest of the company, the underlying companies, mid-single-digit, 5% organic growth. So I think it's really a Power story when you think about it, and that's really in backlog and that really explains how we think about the first half/second half. I think the world itself, Scott, is no better, no worse, so we just see the general trend on markets. Jeff?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I don't have much to add other than when you think about Power, about 65% of our gas turbines are in the second half. AGPs will grow 60% year over year in the second half. That's a big source of it. Oil & Gas, the comps do get better or less difficult in the second half of the year. And we've got about 70%-plus of the revenue for Oil & Gas, based on our forecast of revenue the second half in backlog. And as you mentioned, the balance of portfolio, we expect roughly mid-single-digit growth.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
This is really the profile we expected, I think.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yes.
Operator:
The next question is from Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thanks a lot.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Julian.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. My question was just around the margin bridge on slide five. Just in light of input costs and your own pricing outlook, how do you see the value gap item trending? And then the quick follow-up would just be on the base inflation number there. That was a 110 bps headwind in Q2. Just explain that, please.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So a couple thoughts. On value gap for the year, I don't think we've changed our outlook. We've said we expect value gap for the year to be roughly flat or neutral for the year, with strong – roughly $1 billion direct material benefits, offset by price and a little bit of inflation on our other variable costs, so no change of outlook on value gap. Value gap in the second quarter discretely was a positive, not huge but it was a positive in the second quarter. As you work down that margin walk, the 110 basis points in other, 40 basis points of that is foreign exchange. It's the marks generally on our hedges that are moving through that line. Then you get about 40 basis points of inflation on other base costs, including compensation, et cetera; and then a small impact associated with minority interest in JVs, which is about a 20 basis point negative in the quarter.
Operator:
The next question is from Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, just two things on digital. One, on the partners, you were targeting 50-plus for the year. A month ago you were at 31, now you're at 54. Maybe just comment on that rapid pace of additions. What are you seeing in maybe some of the recent partnerships? And then for David on the 35,000 engines monitored, curious how that's ramped so far. And are you seeing that pick up, and where do you see that going over the next couple years?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So, Shannon, I'll hit the first one. Again, I think the momentum for Predix is growing. There's no doubt that partnerships like the one with Microsoft, the notion of putting Predix as really the analytical platform inside of Azure I think is a big signal to the industry. Huawei in China is another great relationship that will help us extend on a global basis big wins like the one with Schindler, I think gets us in a completely new industry space for Predix. So I just think what you're seeing is momentum taking off, and we're pleased with the partnership numbers. And I think that will continue to accelerate through the year.
David L. Joyce - Senior Vice President; President & CEO-GE Aviation:
Shannon, hi. This is David Joyce. On the 35,000 engines installed, we have a number of different ways in which we take data off the engines. The newer the airplanes, of course, the more accessible the data is on a real-time basis. And then the older the airplane, then we have to go and actually get the data after it lands. But I would say we're making great progress. We're actually starting to connect data acquisition as part of our services contracts. As we take on the risk, which is part of the service contract, we're requesting that we have the ability to go get the data so we can do the evaluations and get the productivity for both our customer and ourselves, so good progress.
Operator:
Our next question is from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Andrew, how are you?
Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Good. Can you talk about organic services orders in the quarter? They were negative 1%. The core services backlog is up 11%. So you still seem in good shape for services growth in the back half. But was the services order number in line with your expectation, given it was down a bit from 1Q's 4%? Is it really just Oil & Gas services weighing and the timing of AGPs weighing on the business and the confidence level that services orders gets better in the second half of the year?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Andrew, again, I think sometimes, particularly with AGPs, there's some timing involved. I think in the second half of the year in services, we expect orders to be mid-single-digits positive. So again, our business model there, 5% organic growth in the first half, backlog growth, and our visibility in the second half I think is all quite positive around services.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I would just add, I talked about AGPs being up 60% year over year in the second half and a total year outlook of 135 to 150 versus 119 last year. That is a big driver. We see double-digit services order growth in the second half of the year here and very solid mid-single-digit growth in our Aviation service business. And those are the two big drivers on the service side.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hey. I just was wondering if we could also just address the back-loading to some degree through the profit lines. At EPG you talked about 5% underlying growth in the Industrial businesses ex-Alstom. Obviously we're starting off in the hole here in the first half. Should we expect some OP growth in the third quarter, or does that profit ramp really have to all manifest itself in the fourth quarter?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Listen, we're going to have a very large fourth quarter because we've got an enormous Renewables and Power fourth quarter, no question about it. We expect to grow sequentially in the third quarter. I'm not giving you third quarter op profit guidance. But I think the variables that we've talked about, Power volume in the second half of the year, Oil & Gas on a year-over-year basis less negative than they were in the first half of the year. We expect Energy Connections to accelerate, and we expect the Alstom synergies as well as the ROME (50:50) restructuring synergies to really kick-in in the second half of the year. We're looking for a real acceleration there. So that's where we see the op profit growth in the second half of the year, one. Two, that's why we're so confident that we can deliver 50 basis points of margin expansion for the total year, having been flat in the first half.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would only add to what Jeff said. Again, I think a lot of this is a Power story. And with their shipment backlog in the second half, their operating profit growth is quite robust in the second half of the year. And I think, Jeff, the way you think about the walk I think is still more or less intact from the standpoint of how we think about the company for 2016.
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes, good morning.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Andrew.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Just a question on G-SIFI and the impact on your appetite for accelerated buyback or more M&A. I think at EPG you said that you were busy with Alstom but it just seems G-SIFI came a lot faster than we expected, and it gives you an opportunity to use your balance sheet. So both, if you could, address appetite for more buyback and appetite for more M&A in the near term. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Jeff, so I would maybe talk about the capital allocation piece. And, Jeff, maybe you talk about the leverage piece. So I'd say capital allocation hasn't really changed that much since EPG. I think we're just looking for the highest return. I think, Andrew, we've got a lot of good ideas inside the company, but we'll be disciplined about those ideas. And it's really for us just making the right – the smart investments for investors vis-à-vis buyback versus acquisitions. But we always have good ideas inside the company. And, Jeff, on the...
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I would just say, just remember that the $18 billion target we have for GE Capital difference in the year assumed that we would de-designate. So there's no change in that framework. It happened sooner rather than later, which is really outstanding, and that has allowed us to accelerate the buyback. I talked about the $5 billion loan we did in the year through GE Capital (53:09), where they have excess debt, excess cash. We took that and we did a $5 billion ASR here in June, and so our buyback through the first half of the year is about $13.7 billion, so we're running ahead of the plan here. Our average buyback is below $30 a share, so I think we feel pretty good about that. On the leverage, the leverage is going to be paced by the opportunities to put that capital to work if we, in fact, do it, and the returns that we can generate for shareholders. And I would say everything else being equal, I think we've consistently said we're more focused on M&A and where those opportunities lie than we are on anything else, and that will be paced on the ideas that we have.
Operator:
The next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So I guess my one question is maybe on Oil & Gas. You're down, EBIT is down about 40% to start the year, in the first half of the year. You're trying to hold to 30% for the entire year, yet pricing continues to get worse. I guess maybe just talk a little bit about your confidence in trying to make up some of the gap on the Oil & Gas EBIT in the second half of the year.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Listen, I think this is all about what we talked to you about in terms of restructuring the cost in the business. And through the first half of the year, we realized about $300 million, a little less than $300 million of benefits through the entirety of the income statement around all those efforts, head count, cost, deflation, restructuring agreements with suppliers, et cetera. We're still pushing hard for the $800 million in the second half of the year. So you get a real acceleration between what we started and executed in 2015, what we've executed in the first half of 2016, that everything else being equal, we expect to deliver an additional $500 million of cost-out in the second half of the year. So if volume stays intact and our outlook on revenue in the second half is roughly close, we ought to be in reasonably good shape. There's some risk, obviously, that if volume is a little bit lighter that some of the benefits, even though the actions have been taken, because you lose the volume leverage may not materialize. But I think we feel, and Lorenzo [Simonelli] and the team feel really good about the execution they're doing around the restructuring in the projects inside the business.
Operator:
The next question is from Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Steve.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hey. Just if I could get a little clarity on Alstom, you walked through the numbers in the supplemental around the $100 million operating loss, $300 million-ish benefit on synergies, and the offset on some of the one-time investments to get those. Maybe just talk about where are you seeing the growth recovery here? What's driving that? What do you think is sustainable, and how should we expect a little more color there going forward?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, so, I'll take a crack and, Jeff, you could add to it. But again, I think if you look at the gas turbine Balance of Plant activity, Steve, we're already seeing tremendous pull-through vis-à-vis the Balance of Plant. Services, I think the customer reception in services is quite positive. And so we're seeing good activity around energy efficiency upgrades, bringing AGPs to the steam side as well as the gas side, things like that. I think similarly Grid revenue growth, which is something that we hadn't put a lot of benefits towards, I think we see Grid as being potential upside as time goes on as well. So I would say Balance of Plant, more steam activity than we had anticipated, better Grid acceptance than we had forecasted, and services, which was really the way we underwrote the deal in the first place, is quite positive for Alstom.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yes, I would just add. Listen, the team is executing. Through the half we've got in excess of $400 million of synergies executed so far against the goal of $1.1 billion for the year. That feels good. As Jeff said, the Power I mentioned earlier when I went through the results. The backlog we acquired in the Power business is up 22% as of the first half. So those synergies on the growth side are absolutely materializing here, and we feel great about that. So I think the execution is pretty good. We did have a cash use for the first half of the year. We expected a cash use for the first half of the year. We hope to be neutral for the year as part of the cash recovery in the second half of the year. But I would say on par, I think we feel really good about both the cost and the growth synergies we're realizing so far.
Operator:
The next question is from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi, guys. Good morning.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Just to follow up on an earlier question, when you say growth in the third quarter, is that seasonal from an operating profit perspective? And then with your second half cash flow guidance, that $8 billion that you highlighted there on backing into something that's around $18 billion, is that the right profit number for the year that underlies that $8 billion in operating – net income plus D&A contribution?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
There are multiple questions in there. Let me start with this. Let me start with CFOA. So through the half, Industrial CFOA was about $400 million. So when we look to the second half, we've guided $12 billion to $14 billion for the year. We've not changed anything about that guidance. So how do you go from $400 million of Industrial CFOA in the first half to $12 billion to $14 billion for the year? We look at earnings, cash earnings. So adding back depreciation and amortization as you look forward to the second half, we see that as about $8 billion. We think we're going to reduce working capital $3 billion to $4 billion. A big part of that is the inventory reductions that we talked about, partly driven by Power but also driven by Renewable and our other businesses. And we need to be better on receivables. Our delinquency rates in the first half were higher than we estimated. We think we can get that back on par. So if we just get back to the inventory performance we went out of 2015 with, if we get back to delinquency and receivable performance that we ended 2015 with, that in total generates about $3 billion to $4 billion of working capital cash flow. And then I just talked about Alstom. So we used a little more than $800 million of cash in the first half of the year on Alstom. We still expect to be roughly neutral in the second half of the year, so that's an $800 million turnaround. And then I think earlier when I went through the results, I talked about we had some unfavorable timing on tax. That's not an issue for the year. That's just a first half/second half issue. So that's how we got to work our way back to $12 billion to $14 billion of CFOA for the year, which supports what Jeff talked about of $29 billion to $32 billion of free cash flow plus dispositions for the total company.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
And I would say beyond that for 2016, we profiled that at the end of the first quarter call. We really have no change in how we see the year.
Operator:
The next question is from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Deane.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, I know we've covered a lot of ground here, but I just want to circle back to your opening comments about still in a slow-growth macro environment. Maybe you could provide some of those geographic data points, U.S., Europe, Asia, developed versus developing. And then on the Europe side, I know it's still early, too early to tell, but does Brexit pose any unique risks for GE as you see it today?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So, Deane, what I would do is I would say versus just talking geographically, I would talk industry-wide and go back to, say, Oil & Gas and Transportation, which are both really around the resource sector, oil on the Oil & Gas side and coal on the Transportation side. Those are tough cycles, and those are tough cycles mainly in North America. The Power and Aviation businesses, we don't see – we see continued Aviation strength. The Power market is okay, but there's plenty of growth out there for us to go after and go get. Healthcare is better, not just in the U.S., but globally. Energy Connections, the Oil & Gas stuff is tough, but the rest of the stuff is quite strong. And we think Renewables is in a very good cycle right now, both in the U.S. and globally. So that's the mix of the world. Now if you bore in on some place like China, the Healthcare business was awesome in China. Our Energy orders grew by more than 30% in the second quarter in China. Aviation was negative, but that really wasn't because of revenue passenger miles. That was because we had big orders last year. So we see, I would say, around the edges, China getting better, Europe stable. And then you can – puts and takes in the rest of the world. So there's plenty of growth out there for us to go get in the second half and into 2017. In terms of Brexit, I just think Brexit is just another point of volatility. It wasn't the outcome we hoped for, but we were plenty ready for that as just another point of volatility.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Great, Jeff. A couple of quick announcements, I'll pass it back to you to wrap up. The replay for today's call will be available this afternoon on our Investor website, and we'll be doing our third quarter earnings call on Friday, October 21.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Great, Matt. Thanks. I would just say first half more or less what we expected, positioned for a strong second half of 2016 with what we have in backlog. I think looking forward, we are again confirming the bridge to $2.00 a share by 2018. And it's really driven by real strength in Power and Aviation, strong turnarounds in Energy Conversion, Healthcare, Renewables, good Alstom execution. And the strength of the GE portfolio I think offsets weaknesses in the Oil & Gas and Transportation business, and that really is the strength of the company is the diversified portfolio and the ability to meet our commitments, even with this volatility.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Joseph R. Mastrangelo - President & CEO, Gas Power Systems, GE Power, General Electric Co. Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc. Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Robert McCarthy - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric first quarter 2016 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Ellen, and I will be your conference coordinator today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Good morning and thanks for joining our first quarter 2016 webcast. I'm here with our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; our CFO, Jeff Bornstein; and our Vice President, Gas Power Systems, Joe Mestrangelo. Earlier today, we posted a press release, presentation and supplemental on our Investor website at www.ge.com/investor. As a reminder, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. Now with that, I'd like to turn it over to Jeff Immelt.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Matt. GE had a good performance in a slow growth environment. EPS of $0.21 was up 5%. This includes $0.02 of headwind due through foreign exchange. Let me summarize some of the key achievements in the quarter. Industrial organic revenue was down slightly; and operating profit was about flat, despite a very challenging environment in Oil & Gas and tough comparisons in gas turbine shipments. This is in line with our expectations. Industrial margins grew by 30 basis points, up 110 basis points ex FX. And CFOA was $7.9 billion, a good start in the year. We're on track to close Appliances in the second quarter, and this will facilitate incremental restructuring and capital allocation optionality. We continue to execute our GE Capital strategy. We have $166 billion of capital deals signed. GE Capital sent a $7.5 billion dividend to the parent in the quarter. And GE Capital filed for SIFI de-designation in March. Alstom integration is on track for our $0.05 goal of 2016. We're more comfortable with the business and our ability to create value. We returned $8.3 billion to investors in dividend and buyback; and our capital allocation framework remains on track. Importantly, we are reaffirming our 2016 framework goal of $1.45 to $1.55 EPS; 2% to 4% organic growth; CFOA of $29 billion to $32 billion; and $26 billion of cash to investors. Our performance in the quarter again validates the strength of the GE operating model. Diversity is a key strength during this period of volatility. We're in the midst of a challenging Oil & Gas market. However, we are things sustained strength in Aviation and Power markets. Healthcare is rebounding. I was in China last week and saw improvements in our business. Most of the portfolios are strong and we're delivering. There's plenty of business out there to achieve our goals. Orders were up slightly in the quarter, down organically; and pricing was flat. We ended the quarter with $316 billion of backlog, up 18% year-over-year. Our investments in technology are paying off. Power orders grew by 25%. Our backlog of HA turbines is now totaled 35. Renewable organic orders grew by 88%, behind the launch of new 2 megawatt and 3 megawatt turbines. Healthcare equipment orders grew by 6%, with double-digit orders in the U.S. We continue to win in the Aviation market as the LEAP remains the engine of choice and on track for a successful launch. Globally, orders were up 9% in developed markets with broad-based growth; and down 9% in emerging markets, in line with the volatility we see in resource-rich countries. Service continues to be quite robust. Power Services grew by 17%, ex-Alstom; and Aviation grew by 13%. Digital orders grew by 29%. We launched Predix and attracted 7,500 developers in just 30 days. Meanwhile, we continue to attract new customers to our digital offerings. Oil & Gas markets remain tough. Activity slowed again in the quarter and was reflected on our orders rate decline. However, we continue to make progress with our customers, signing the industry's first performance-based contract with Diamond Offshore. We're confident that GE will outperform in this cycle. Overall, our backlog and momentum support our 2% to 4% organic growth target for the year. Revenue was up 6% in the first quarter, down 1% organically; in line with our plan. The main driver of the revenue profile in the first quarter is Power. In the first quarter 2015, Power organic revenue grew by 21%, as we delivered several large orders. Without this impact, organic revenue would have grown by 3% in the first quarter. Some highlights in the quarter include
Joseph R. Mastrangelo - President & CEO, Gas Power Systems, GE Power, General Electric Co.:
Thanks, Jeff. I'll start with a quick market overview. Overall demand for Gas Power Systems is steady, and we forecast the market to be between 55 to 60 gigawatts for both heavy duty and aero gas turbines. Globally, we continue to see strong demand in North America and Asia, with good growth in China. There are also pockets of country-specific growth in the Middle East and Africa, both for utility-scale and fast power applications. In addition, commercial activity is increasing in both Argentina and Mexico, driven by recent government reforms. 2016 is the production launch for the HA turbine platform, and our team is ready to meet the challenge of shipping about 24 HA gas turbines this year. The industry continues to shift to the H, or high-efficiency technology. Last year this accounted for 40% of the total industry orders, and we expect that to rise to more than half of all gigawatts sold by 2020. Fast power demand can be lumpy from quarter to quarter, and customers want megawatts online in months. Using aeroderivative gas turbines combined with Alstom expanded scope capability plus local execution and financing from the GE Store, we have the ability to quickly go from customer need to power on the grid anywhere in the world. Moving to Alstom, this is a great marriage of two technology portfolios, high-performing gas turbines from GE and the highest efficiency steam-tail technology from Alstom. We have industry-leading, fully integrated power island solution capability. Around 10% of our orders came from Alstom technology in the first quarter, and we are now quoting Alstom steam tails on every combined cycle opportunity, a big shift from pre-Alstom where we sold steam tails less than 30% of the time. This is our single biggest growth opportunity in the near term, and we expect strong 2016 orders that will convert into 2017 revenue. In the first quarter, we shipped 13 heavy-duty gas turbines, and our forecast is to ship 40 in the first half and 75 in the second half, for 115 total year shipments. Right now, 101 of those turbines are in backlog, and we see opportunities to potentially be better than our current forecast. The next page covers the HA platform launch. We are very pleased with progress on this program, both commercially, where we continue to win in the marketplace, and also on equipment performance, which is exceeding expectations. The H backlog continues to grow, and we will deliver about $2 billion of revenue this year with positive total year margin. Our integrated approach to the market translates into more equipment being sold per megawatt shipped. Alstom improves our steam turbines, generators, and heat recovery steam generator [HRSG] performance, and it shows in our orders. In the first 200 days since the acquisition, we have already closed more than double the HRSG orders then Alstom did in the last three years combined. Our launch plant for EDF in France has set a world record output for both simple cycle and combined cycle configurations. We're also on track to set another world record for combined cycle efficiency when this plant goes online in the middle of June. We continue to develop and introduce new models at record speed. And during the first quarter we did a flawless validation of the 7HA.02 gas turbine. This turbine performed better than our initial engineering models, and our first units were shipped during the first quarter. Exelon is another powerful example of the Alstom and GE combination. These two projects in Texas have 100% GE Power Island technology. It wasn't sold that way because Alstom wasn't yet part of GE at the time. But bringing these teams together gives us the ability to derisk project execution and deliver stronger operating performance. The HA platform is one of the biggest product line launches in GE's history. The team is performing well, and this technology is a key driver to both growth and profitability. Here are three great examples of projects that are improving both business profitability and delivering the lowest cost of electricity for our customers. The first example combines new technology with a vertical integration on three-dimensional compressor airfoils that improve the output and efficiency for the HA turbine. We deliver $12 million annual cost savings, raise our supply chain capability, and reduce production cycle time. The middle of the page highlights the power of the GE Store. We brought together engineers from GE Power, Alstom, and the GRC, who developed new high temperature material for our F-Class fleet. It's less expensive and also improves gas turbine performance, where higher temperatures equal better efficiency. Once again, new equipment cost of electricity goes down while creating a new service upgrade opportunity. Generators are an example of taking existing Alstom technology and putting it into our product catalog instead of buying it from a third party. We not only lowered our cost position, but also improved performance and reliability. The next page looks at our 2016 op margin profile. The HA will become profitable in 2Q at about the time we ship our 12th unit. We've taken over 30% of cost out of the turbine in our first year of production. Now let's put that into historical perspective. The 10th HA turbine shipment is equal to the 1,000th F-Class turbine shipped on a dollar per kilowatt basis. We are delivering higher performance for value with the combination of improved gas turbine output and Alstom steam technology. Here are two projects in the U.S. The first one is TVA, which we closed in 2014; and our scope was just the gas turbine and the generator, which translated into a value of $178 per kilowatt for GE. Now fast-forward to the first quarter of this year, where we closed an HA deal with PSEG. We sold the gas turbine and the generator and added in the Alstom steam tail, highlighted in light blue. We more than double our dollars sold for the same amount of kilowatts delivered. Our customers get better value; in this case, an incremental $5 million because the Power Island operates at improved efficiency. This is very exciting, and now let me share with you one more thing; how our digital capability is improving our Industrial performance. Take the two first circles, we are opening new design spaces and allowing our factory to produce smaller features and tighter tolerances, with world-class quality. We build the digital twin when we design the machine and direct link that model to advanced manufacturing technologies like 3D printing and additive manufacturing. This allows rapid prototyping and the ability to ramp up production faster. Then, we test our equipment harder than it will ever operate in the field at our state-of-the-art full load test facility. This is one-of-a-kind capability in our industry. During testing, we have more than 7,000 data streams that capture more than 500 terabytes of data. That data goes back to our technology team to both validate designs and improve performance. The blue circle is an example of this. It shows the first two stages of turbine blading that have thousands of small holes to allow the metal to safely operate above its melting point. We color the blades with thermal paint to validate the design performance on the test end. And now with our new Metem acquisition, we can rapidly prototype and bring into production new cooling hole configuration that optimize performance and efficiency. What once took years could now be accomplished in a matter of weeks. The far right circle shows how combining digital and Industrial expertise delivers value. The blue represents a compressor test and campaign compared to the orange, which is one year of operating performance for a 537 7F gas turbine fleet. These results create an expanded operating space for our customers, where moving up and to the right can deliver up to $10 million in incremental value. The data then becomes the basis for a Predix enabled application that allows our customers to maximize performance while operating the equipment safely. This page shows why the HA program launch is proceeding so smoothly; faster than we've ever done before, while continuously innovating our technology platform. Thanks for listening, and now I'll turn it over to Jeff Bornstein.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks, Joe. I will start with the first quarter summary. Revenues were $27.8 billion, up 6% in the quarter. Industrial revenues were up 7% to $25 billion. You can see on the right side that Industrial segments were up 6% reported and down 1% organic. Alstom revenue in the quarter was $2.8 billion. Industrial operating plus verticals EPS was $0.21, up 5%. That includes $0.05 of net restructuring this year versus $0.03 a year ago. If you look at the box at the bottom of the page, we provided the V% and adjusted for Industrial gains in restructuring. Excluding those impacts in both years, Industrial EPS was up 5% and Industrial plus vertical EPS was up 14%. The operating EPS number of $0.06 includes other continuing GE Capital activity, including headquarter runoff and other exit-related items that I will cover on the GE Capital page. Continuing EPS of $0.02 includes the impact of non-operating pension; and net EPS of $0.01 loss includes discontinued operations. The total disc-ops impact was a charge of $300 million in the quarter, driven by GE Capital exit costs. As Jeff said, we generated $7.9 billion of CFOA in the quarter, up from $1.3 billion in the first quarter of 2015, driven by increased dividend from GE Capital. Industrial CFOA was $400 million, down 60%. There were two big drivers of the year-over-year decline. First, Alstom used about $400 million of cash in the quarter, and this is primarily timing. Consistent with what we've said previously, we expect Alstom to be breakeven to slightly positive on CFOA for the year. Second, as you're aware, we have a very second-half loaded volume profile, driven by Power. And as a result, we began level-loading the factories, which has resulted in higher inventory in the quarter. The GE tax rate was 17% and the GE Capital tax rate was 36%, which for GE Capital reflects a tax benefit on a pre-tax continuing loss. On the right side are the segment results. As I mentioned, Industrial segment revenues were up 6% reported and down 1% organically. Foreign exchange translation of $544 million was a two-point headwind, as was lost revenue from dispositions of $542 million. Those impacts were more than offset by $2.8 billion of revenue from Alstom. As Jeff mentioned, foreign exchange had a significant impact on segment op profit this quarter. In total, we had $255 million headwind driven by $33 million of FX translation and $223 million of foreign exchange transactional impacts from remeasurement and mark-to-market on open hedges. Traditionally, remeasurement of mark-to-market have been de minimis. For example, in all of 2015 it was about $30 million; and for 2014 it was less than $5 million for the year. It's unusual for us to have this big of an impact, which is why we're calling it out here this quarter. This outsized impact in the quarter was driven by significant movements in certain currencies versus prior quarter. For example, the weakening of the pound sterling, the strengthening of the Japanese yen, and the strengthening of the Brazilian reis. These impacts were principally felt in Power and Oil & Gas, given the global nature of those businesses; and Alstom was a driver as well, given their broad global footprint. It's important to note that we are economically hedged and that the remeasurement and mark-to-market impacts are just timing. The underlying transactions for which these hedges were put in place will occur in sales and costs over the coming quarters. And the net impact of the hedge and the underlying transaction will be roughly zero over the life of the contract. So again, the $223 million of FX movement will flow back to earnings over time. On the right side of the page, you'll see the Industrial segment op profit was down 7% reported and down 4% organically. The organic number of 4% excludes the effects of acquisitions and dispositions and FX translation only. Excluding the impacts of transactional FX, as I just discussed, organic segment profit was up 2% in the quarter. Next on Industrial other items for the quarter, we had $0.05 of charges related to Industrial restructuring and other items that were taken at corporate. Charges were $686 million on a pre-tax basis, with $164 million of those charges related to Alstom synergy investments, deal costs and accounting items. We also had a gain of $59 million pre-tax related to the sale of our space at 30 Rock, which netted to less than $0.01 impact. At the bottom of the page, you can see the profile for the year. We expect gains in restructuring to largely offset, but with quarterly variability and timing. As you know, we signed the Appliances transaction, which we expect to contribute about $0.20 of gain in the second quarter. In the second half, we have asset management disposition and some smaller transactions that will contribute an additional $0.05, bringing total year gains to approximately $0.25. This allows us to significantly restructure our cost bases and will make us more competitive in 2017 and beyond. Next, I will go through the segments, starting with power. The Power business had a very strong orders quarter. Total orders of $5.6 billion were up 66%, including $1.5 billion of Alstom orders. Excluding Alstom, orders were up 23% to $4.2 billion, with equipment orders higher by 57% and services higher by 11%. Equipment orders strength was driven by Gas Power Systems where we took orders for 25 gas turbines, versus 21 a year ago, including an additional six H turbines. We also had orders for seven steam turbines for combined cycle versus zero a year ago. The U.S. was strong accounting for 73% of orders value; and international was also strong, up 21%. Our H unit backlog stands at 35 after receiving orders for six new units and shipping our first four units. Alstom steam orders totaled $300 million in the quarter. We took an order for one steam turbine and a turbo generator for coal applications. In conjunction with GE gas turbine, Alstom also took orders for five additional HRSGs. Core GE services grew orders 11% on strength in Power Services up 17%. Total upgrades were 52 versus 49 last year, including orders for 25 AGPs higher by nine from last year. In addition to AGPs, we're seeing higher demand for other upgrades like Dry Low NOx and flange-to-flange upgrades. Alstom services booked 1 billion of orders, including 22 steam turbine retrofits. In total, backlog ended at $78 billion. Excluding Alstom, backlog ended at $63 billion, with $9 billion of equipment up 51% and services of $54 billion up 7%. Revenue of $5.2 billion was up 13%, with equipment down 24% and services up 40%. Excluding Alstom, revenues were down 18% driven by equipment revenue down 48% on 26 fewer gas turbine shipments and 35 fewer generators, as we expected. Services, excluding Alstom, grew revenues 5% driven by Power Services up 7%. Upgrades were 54 this year versus 55 a year ago, including 27 AGPs which was six higher. Op profit, excluding Alstom, was $547 million in the quarter, down 28% on the lower gas turbine volume, negative cost leverage and negative currency. This was partly offset by services growth. In the quarter, we had $48 million of currency drag, mostly from transactional foreign exchange, principally on the euro and the yen. We expect these transnational hedges to reverse over time. Alstom contributed op profit of $26 million in the quarter, including the effects of purchase accounting and currency. Transactional FX for Alstom was a $33 million headwind. First quarter results were as expected and, as Joe mentioned, reflect the timing of our gas turbine volume for 2016, which is heavily second half loaded. We continue to win with the H turbine, including pulling through Alstom steam generators and HRSGs. We expect to deliver 115-plus gas turbines this year, with 101 in backlog, and we will continue to drive H margins throughout the year. We're on plan for Alstom synergies for the year of about $800 million. Next is Renewables. Orders in the quarter were $2 billion, up 110% in the quarter. Orders were higher by 86%, excluding Alstom. Our core wind business took orders for 711 wind turbines versus 376 a year ago. U.S. orders were very strong, up 144%, including an order for 96 units that slipped from the fourth quarter. Orders for the new 2.X and 3.X products accounted for almost 70% of our unit orders. Alstom renewable orders were $225 million driven by Hydro with orders in China, Laos and the U.S. Total backlog at $12.4 billion, includes $5 billion contributed by Alstom. Core backlog of $7.4 billion grew 43%. Revenue in the quarter of $1.7 billion was higher by 62%, with the core business up 34%. The core business shipped 616 turbines versus 472 last year. About half of the shipped units were the new 2.X product. Alstom revenues of $295 million were principally attributable to Hydro. Operating profit in the quarter totaled $83 million, inclusive of $91 million from the core business and an $8 million loss from Alstom. Core profitability was driven by higher volume and a termination payment that was more than offset by 2.X launch costs and negative foreign exchange. The quarter was a good start for the year, with strong order growth and execution in both the Legacy and Alstom segments. We continue to expect the business to ship about 3,050 wind turbines in 2016, with about 100 coming from Alstom versus the 250 we originally guided and 150 more from GE. The business is on track to deliver over $100 million of Alstom synergies for the year. Next is Aviation. Aviation continues to perform well, as does the market. Global passenger air travel for February year to date grew 8%, its strongest performance since 2008. Both domestic and international routes saw robust growth. Airfreight volumes contracted about 1.6% through February. Aviation orders in the quarter were $6.6 billion, down 12%. Equipment orders were down 35% to $2.6 billion, as we expected. We booked $1.7 billion of commercial equipment orders, including $800 million of LEAP CFM, $400 million of GE90, and about $100 million of GEnx orders. Military equipment was higher by 91% on large naval orders. Service orders grew 13% to $4 billion, on spares up 2%, repairs up 10%, and CFAs up 34%. Services backlog grew 11% versus the first quarter of last year. Revenues in the quarter of $6.3 billion were up 10%, with equipment higher by 2%. The business shipped 53 GEnx units versus 51 last year. Service revenue grew 17%, with spares up 6% and strength in commercial services and military. Operating profit in the quarter was higher by 16% on services volume and cost productivity, and operating profit margins expanded 110 basis points. Aviation had another solid quarter. The LEAP launch remains on track, and we expect to ship 15 to 20 units in the second quarter and about 110 engines for the year. We've now accumulated more than 19,000 cycles on the LEAP engine, and all the engines were performing well and all were meeting their fuel specifications. Next is Oil & Gas. We're operating in an incredibly difficult environment. In the first quarter, U.S. onshore rig counts were down another 27% from year end and down 72% from the 2014 peak. U.S. well counts are down 64% versus the first quarter 2015, and CapEx and investment decisions continue to be pushed out in virtually every segment. We continue to be focused on the things we can control, principally on cost and competitiveness. Orders in the quarter were down 44%, with equipment orders down 70%. Every segment saw significantly lower equipment orders. Subsea was down 83%. TMS was down 92%. Surface was down 43%, and downstream was down 14%. Service orders were down 19% in total, with all segments also declining. TMS was down 4%, Surface 28%, Subsea 57%, downstream 23%, and digital solutions were down 5%. Not included in orders but included in backlog, we signed a CSA contract with Diamond Offshore. The deal covers four BOP sets and was done in conjunction with our energy financing business. Backlog ended the quarter at $22.6 billion, down 1% from the fourth quarter. Equipment backlog totaled $8.8 billion, down 7% from last year; and Service backlog totaled $13.8 billion, up 3% from last year. Revenue in the quarter was down 18%, down 14% organically. Equipment revenues were down 23%, 18% organically, driven by Surface down 45%, TMS down 23%, Subsea down 26%, and downstream grew revenue 14%. Service revenues were down 13%, down 9% organic, with all segments lower with the exception of TMS, which grew revenue 6% organically in the quarter. Operating profit of $308 million was down 37% and down 31% organically. The business delivered approximately $140 million of cost actions, which was more than offset by lower volume, price, and foreign exchange. Foreign exchange in the quarter was a $95 million headwind, driven by FX associated translation of $25 million and transactional FX of $70 million. In an extremely tough market, the team will continue to drive cost and market share. We are on track to deliver against the $800 million cost target. Our restructuring investment will likely increase from $350 million to about $500 million to achieve the benefits, as lower volume will offset some of the realization. The increased restructuring is within the restructuring framework we've been sharing with you. As Jeff mentioned, given the difficult market and how orders have started the year, we are now planning Oil & Gas operating profit down approximately 30% in 2016. We expect strength elsewhere in the portfolio and aggressive corporate cost management to maintain our plan. No change in guidance of the $1.45 to $1.55. Next up is Healthcare, which had a very strong quarter. Orders in the quarter of $4.2 billion were up 5% organic and 1% reported. Geographically, orders grew 3% in the United States, 14% in China, 4% in Europe, and 2% in Asia-Pacific, partially offset by weakness in Latin America, which was down 12%, principally driven by Brazil. In terms of business lines, Healthcare systems grew orders 5% organically and 2% reported, with strength in the U.S. driven by strong CT growth of 26% on increased traction on the new Evolution CT launch and 16% growth in the ultrasound business. Organically, China was up 12% and Europe grew 6%, with broad growth across the region. Our life science business was up 7% organically with strength in both bioprocess, up 7%, and core imaging higher by 10%. Healthcare revenues of $4.2 billion were up 3% reported and up 6% organically. Healthcare systems grew revenue 4% organic and 1% reported, and life sciences grew 13% organically and 6% reported. Operating profit was up 7% reported, up 10% organically. Strong productivity and volume growth offset price and NPI digital spending, and margins improved in the quarter 70 basis points. The business is beginning to deliver on the growth from NPI investments we've made and it's restructuring to deliver lower products and service costs. The business is on track to meet or exceed the framework we shared with you and investors in March. Next, Transportation continues to face a very tough domestic market. Commodity carloads in the first quarter were down 12%, driven by coal down 31% and petroleum products were down 17%. Intermodal grew modestly, up 1%. Orders for the quarter of $653 million were down 56%, as we expected. Equipment orders were weak, down 89%. Service orders were down 3% organically and down 18% reported, principally driven by lower local parts. Backlog ended at $21 billion. That's down 2% from the end of the year. Revenues in the quarter were down 25%, driven by lower equipment revenues. The business shipped 156 locos in the first quarter versus 215 last year. Service revenues were flat, excluding the sale of Signaling. Operating profit of $164 million was down 27%, down 22% organically, driven by lower volume and variable cost productivity, partially offset by strong deflation and structural cost take out. Base costs were lower by 13%. Op profit margins contracted 50 basis points in the quarter. The team continues to aggressively drive product and service costs, as well as structural cost out, given the volume challenges they faced this year. We still expect to ship approximately 800 locos in 2016; and our outlook for the year remains unchanged. Energy connection to orders totaled $2.7 billion in the quarter, up 27%. Organically orders were down 13%, driven by Power Conversion down 20% on weakness in Oil & Gas, partially offset by strength in Renewables. Industrial Solutions was down 7% organically on weakness in the North American market. Grid orders were $1.25 billion in the quarter. And backlog finished the quarter at $11.9 billion, of which Grid Solutions contributed $8.4 million. Revenues in the quarter of $2.3 billion were up 34% reported. Organic revenues were down 6%. Grid Solutions revenues totaled $1.1 billion. Operating profit was a loss of $85 million. The core business of Industrial Solutions and Power Conversion recorded a loss of $47 million, driven by lower Oil & Gas volume, higher digital investment and lost earnings from the sale of our Embedded business in 2015. SG&A was down 8% in the quarter. Grid Solutions recorded a loss of $38 million, driven by $20 million of operational earnings, offset by $40 million of purchase accounting charges and $23 million of transactional foreign exchange. Alstom synergies in the quarter were ahead of plan, and their business is on track for the year to deliver over $200 million of synergies. We feel good about the progress we're making in integrating Digital Energy and Alstom Grid. Overall, Energy Connections had a challenging quarter, but we expect their results to improve over the year beginning in the second quarter. We're investing to make this segment more competitive and to improve profitability. We like these businesses for the long-term. Next, Appliances and Lighting. We remain on track for a 2Q closing for our sale of Appliances to Haier. Haier shareholders approved the transaction on March 31. In the quarter, segment revenue grew 3%, with Appliances revenue growth of 8% on strong industry volume, which is up 7%, including strength in both retail up 6% and contract up 9%. Lighting revenue was lower by 6% organically, driven by continued strength in LED, offset by a contraction in the legacy Lighting business. Segment profit of $115 million was higher by 13%, driven by the strength in Appliances on strong productivity and commodity deflation. The last segment I'll cover is GE Capital. Our Verticals businesses are in $496 million this quarter. That's up 43% from prior year, driven by higher gains, better operations, partially offset by lower tax benefits and impairment. Portfolio quality continues to remain stable. Other continuing operations generated a $1.4 billion loss in the quarter, principally driven by excess interest expense, the expense associated with the first quarter of 2016 $4 billion hybrid tender, headquarter operating costs restructuring and other charges related to GE Capital transformation, including the costs associated with preferred equity exchange, which we also executed earlier in the quarter. To date, we've incurred $22.6 billion of costs related to the GE Capital exit plan, and we remain on track versus our $23 billion estimate. Discontinued operations incurred a loss of $300 million in the quarter, largely driven by marks on held-for-sale assets. Overall, GE Capital reported a $1.2 billion loss in the quarter. We ended the quarter with $127 billion of ENI, excluding liquidity, with Verticals at $78 billion of ENI. Liquidity at the end of the first quarter was $106 billion. Our Basel III Tier 1 common ratio was 14.5%, which is flat from year-end after paying dividends of $7.5 billion during the quarter. The timing of dividends for the rest of the year is dependent on the timing a deal closures, but we expect to pay roughly half of the $18 billion we've targeted in the first half of the year and the remainder in the second half. Asset sales remain ahead of plan; and during the quarter, we closed $42 billion of transactions, including $28 billion related to Wells Fargo sale, bringing the total closed transactions through the end of the quarter to $146 billion to-date. In addition, we signed agreements for an additional $9 billion in the first quarter, bringing total signings to $166 billion to-date. Our price to tangible book on deals signed to-date is 1.3 times tangible book and we're on track for the 1.1 times price to tangible book that we estimated a year ago. What is left to sign is primarily outside the U.S. with our country platforms in France and Italy and the execution of our IPO of the Czech bank. We expect to have a small balance of assets left through year-end. Overall, Keith and the GE Capital team have executed ahead of schedule and on all aspects of plan we shared with you one year ago. We expect to be largely completed with the asset sales by 2016. On March 31, we filed the request to the FSOC for the rescission of GE Capital's de-designation as a SIFI. The filing demonstrates that GE Capital substantially reduced its risk profile and is significantly less interconnected to the financial system and therefore does not pose any threat to the U.S. financial system. We hope to complete the de-designation process as soon as possible. With that, I'll turn it back to Jeff.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jeff. Our operating framework remains on track. We expect the operating EPS to be $1.45 to $1.55. We're remixing the Industrial content; and all other dynamics remain on track. Cash performance has improved slightly based on the Appliances' disposition that we expect to complete in the second quarter. Overall, free cash flow and dispositions will equal $29 billion to $32 billion; and we expect to return $26 billion to investors in buyback and dividends. The GE model is producing for investors in this volatile economy. The strength of our portfolio will deliver strong EPS and cash growth. We're executing well with Alstom. Before we end, I wanted to give you a sense for how we've aligned the team's compensation with investors. For 2016, our AEIP goals, in essence our internal plan, is above this framework. And for 2016 to 2018, our LTIP ties to the three-year EPS and capital allocation walk we showed you at the outlook meeting. I feel great about our strategy, execution and the strength of our business model. Matt, now over to you for questions.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Thanks, Jeff. And I'll ask the operator to open the lines up for questions.
Operator:
Our first question is from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I know this might be tough to answer, and this if for Jeff Bornstein, but give us a sense at least of what is the feedback in the process on the SIFI de-designation? I mean do you just apply and then wait for a ruling or is there some sort of conversation through the process where you can get a sense of where you stand?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yes, Scott. So we're the first through the process, okay. So I wouldn't say there's a ton of definition around how the process should work, per se. We are in discussions with the FSOC. They've got our paper. We will walk them through the tenets of our paper. We're in the process of doing that over the next couple of weeks. And then we expect to get a response from the FSOC around the request, and we hope that happens sooner rather than later.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would only add to that, Scott, two things. One is, if you look at the reason for the designation. Our proposal aligns with that in terms of why we don't think we're systemic today; and the other one is just miming what's been said in public. I think people want to see the process work. In other words, I think they want to see that people can come out of SIFI designation just like they can come in, and that's really parroting what people on the FSOC have said.
Operator:
The next question is from Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Good morning.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Julian.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey. Just a question on the segment's sort of margin bridge that you laid out. If you look last year as a whole, you take the cost productivity and gross margin, plus the SG&A simplification, that was about a 60 bps tailwind to margins all-in. This quarter it was a negative of 20 bps. So I wondered if there was just some timing on specific productivity measures or if there's something sort of largely going on that explains why the productivity contribution was so muted in Q1?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I think the page that Jeff walked through which showed cost productivity and gross margins as a 40 basis point drag, I think what you've got to – I talked about the effect of remeasurement and marks in foreign exchange when I went through results. A lot of that finds itself in gross margins. If you adjust for that, cost productivity was actually up 40 basis points; and that's how you get the 80 basis points of gross margins, excluding the effects of that foreign exchange. And I didn't say it earlier, but when we look at how those marks and remeasurements peel off over the year against the contracts that they're hedging, about two-thirds of that, of those contracts, settle up in the form of cash in the year. So we would expect two-thirds of what we took as a charge here in the first quarter to come back within the year. So that's why the cost productivity line was a negative 40 basis points. Without foreign exchange, it would have been a plus 40 basis points.
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Good morning, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
So service was up 4% year-over-year, which is a modest improvement from last quarter's 3%. It looks like your momentum in Power Services and Aviation's increasing. Is there any way to parse out how much of the relatively strong growth is coming from your digital initiative? Jeff, you said in the past that you're expecting to get an additional couple points from digital on service over time. Can you talk about the sustainability of the services momentum, especially as you just rolled out Predix?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Again, I still expect, in backlog, that you're going to start seeing this flow through. AGPs will be up year-over-year. And we had some good wins in both the Rail business and the Transportation business for the year. I think when you look at orders growing by 29%, we think some of that is going to start echoing through into the run rate of the service business in the second half of this year, into 2017 and 2018. So I still fully expect, along with the service leaders in the business, to have organic services growth at 5% or greater as we look at 2016 and beyond.
Operator:
The next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Joe.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So maybe my one question on Oil & Gas. Clearly, the environment is not great. I felt Lorenzo [Simonelli] did a great job last year of maintaining margins in a very difficult environment, but you seemed to step down in decrementals in the first quarter. I guess maybe can you parse some of that out? How much of it is FX oriented? How much is it the pieces of your business like turbo and the offshore business not doing well enough? Can you parse out what really is driving the decrementals?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So a couple thoughts here. Let's start with the results in the quarter. They reported $308 million of operating margin in the quarter. That included roughly about $90 million of negative FX. And again, as I said earlier, a big part of that FX we do expect to come back during the year. When you think about the step-down 30%, we're seeing it tougher across all our segments, but it tends to be very concentrated in our Surface business in North America. We got a big step-down there versus our original expectation, and a bit in our Subsea business. The rest of the business, whether it's turbo machinery, downstream, or the old M&C business, we call digital today, those businesses are not that far off the framework we've built when we guided you to 10% to 15%. It's really around Subsea and Surface.
Operator:
The next question is from Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks and good morning all.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hey. Since we have a special guest today as well, it would be helpful to get a better sense on the Alstom backlog. When we also look to the additional risk in the 10-K on engineering and construction risk and all of that, to what extent is that backlog now something – you've gone over every single project in excruciating detail, have very high levels of conviction on the risk front. How should we think about that playing out going forward?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Steve, I'll start and then Joe can weigh in on the piece of the backlog that he knows. So we have been going through those contracts in extraordinarily amount of detail. We're deeply through it. We're not completely done. I told the team we want to be completely wrapped here in the second quarter so we can lock down purchase accounting. As you would expect, there are some challenges in those contracts around the timing of cash flows and how we forecast revenue to go, how we forecast costs to go, and you've seen some of that in the purchase accounting. But I would say generally speaking, we are very close to done. And I think in the Power business that Joe can talk to, I think we're in very good shape and we have a deep and good understanding of where we are. Joe?
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks, Jeff. The only thing I would add more on the operational side is the team in Power, they've done a really good job at how they've managed the projects, and we see this as an opportunity to grow for the future. With the capability that we've gained around the world on complex expanded-scope projects I think is one of the catalysts for us to keep growing. And we're through our backlog in Gas Power Systems and see that the team does a great job executing projects.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Steve, I would say we've underwritten Alstom with no gross synergies at all. We're clearly going to blow that away, okay? I just think, as Joe went through, HSRGs, Grid, things like that. But I would also say even in – I just got back from a week or so in Asia. Even in steam power, there are going to be opportunities for GE as we look at the future. So I think that's the way I'd think about it. It's locking down the cost, what Jeff and Joe have talked about. We didn't underwrite any revenue synergies at all, and I think that's going to be the icing on the cake as we go forward.
Operator:
The next question is from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you, good morning.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Deane.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
I do want to follow up on the Oil & Gas question because there's certainly been some speculation regarding your potential interest in adding more Oil & Gas assets at this point. And then a quick one for Jeff Bornstein to update on the cadence of buybacks at $18 billion, how does that sequence out for the balance of the year?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Deane. I'll take the first part of that one. Look, we like for the long-term the Oil & Gas segment. We're going to look at adding to it if it makes sense. We think there's a bunch of different segments in the Oil & Gas business that are attractive as we look at it today, but it's got to make sense in the context of the world we see today and not the rosiest of projections as it pertains to the future. So we're going to be a disciplined buyer when we look at the assets in the Oil & Gas segment. Jeff, how about the second part of the question?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So the way we planned it out, as you saw in the cash flow walk that Jeff took you through, we bought $6.1 billion worth of stock back through the first quarter. Our plan is to buy back roughly 50% in the first half, 50% in the second half, and that's how we're still planning for the dividends to flow from GE Capital, no change versus what we suggested we would do.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hey. I just wanted to make sure I have my arms around the all-in Industrial OP. I assume the $19 billion-plus for the year is still a decent number given that the overall framework hasn't changed? So I guess if you could, address that. But given all the moving parts, anything we should be aware of here in Q2? I'm just making sure we've got this dialed correctly, the H launch, LEAP is coming up. I know you don't want to get into precise Q2 guidance, but a little bit of help there would be good, I think.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Again, I think, Jeff, I would consider the remixing in the Industrial segments to more or less washout as you go through the puts and takes. on 2Q, Jeff, I don't know, do you want to speak to anything in particular?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
We have a few things. We expect to close Appliances in June, so you'll see the gain associated with Appliances, let's say, roughly $0.20 a share. We expect to do about $0.11 of restructuring in the second quarter as we stand here today. And I think the margin rate in the second quarter, based on LEAP, both launch and initial shipments and H, will get better sequentially every quarter on H cost. I think the margin rate will be a little bit of a challenge in the second quarter, no change on how we think about it for the year. We talked about 50 basis points of improvement in the core business or the ex-Alstom business, I should say, no change in view on that. But the second quarter could be a little bit challenged with what we've got going on with the LEAP, the H and the wind launch on 2.X and 3.X.
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Good morning.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. As we think about your organic guidance for the year of 2% to 4%, what would it take to get to 2% versus 4%? And is 4% achievable in this environment? Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think the hypotheticals are always stuff to stay away from. I think the reason why we had Joe here today is in many ways this is the answer to your question. I mean, I think you got the right product at the right time, well executed, tough comps in the first half, strong comps in the second. And I think if we run the play in gas turbines, it's going to lead us to an organic revenue for the company that's 5%, let's say, in the second half and a range that's 2% to 4% for the year. So I think that was the reason really why we had – Andrew, why we had Joe here today is that this really is the plus and the minus, if you will, on the year; and I feel good about how we're executing in the Power business.
Operator:
The next question is from Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. Can we maybe try to quantify a little bit more what the total margin impact is this year from these development programs, I mean from the – or the launch programs, call them I guess the H, the 2.X, 3.X and the LEAP. What's the total kind of margin impact in 2016 and how should we think about that in 2017? At least some kind of ballpark idea of that?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I don't think we've gone through that. Here's what we've said, Shannon, is notwithstanding the challenge that those present to us from a margin perspective, where despite that through all the investment we've made around restructuring, SG&A costs, the focus on supply chain that we're going to overcome those costs and grow margins roughly 50 basis points in the year ex-Alstom. As we move through to 2017, we expect to be in a very different place on H costs. We think H will be really accretive in 2017 versus 2016. We expect to get deeper down the curve on the LEAP engine, as volume ramps in 2017 versus 2016. And we expect to be in a better spot certainly around wind, both the 2.X – 2.X is the most important product in 2017 versus 2016. So we haven't detailed out by product exactly what that is. But everything else we're doing around trying to change the cost footprint of this company and around product and service costs within gross margins and running a better supply chain is going to provide us enough headwind to grow margins notwithstanding those incremental costs on those products.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Shannon, we have a product cost counsel that's led by Jeff and Vic Abate and Philippe Cochet. We're tracking all our products as they go through the system. There's a lot because, for instance, as LEAP comes in, GEnx keeps going down the learning curve. So we have a flow of products that are going on inside the company, and I think we just have the line of sight to how, in totality, we're going to generate improvement year-over-year.
Operator:
The next question is from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Good morning.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Nigel.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
So my initial question was whether the mix of the guidance for the full year is unchanged. And it sounds like that's not the case, it sounds like it's very much in line despite the Oil & Gas down. Maybe, if you could, just confirm that. But I did want to ask Joe a question on the H as well. Clearly, similar efficiency for the H compared to Siemens and (59:03) is one to two points better, which is huge. How do you maintain that advantage going forward? What is the development path for the H from here and how do you think about the price, the market share dynamic here? Are you planning to monetize this at price, or at this point do you want to drive market share?
Joseph R. Mastrangelo - President & CEO, Gas Power Systems, GE Power, General Electric Co.:
So, Nigel, where I'd start off is that in two years we've gone from single-digit to 40% share of the space. So the technology we have today plays well in the marketplace because the customers get the incremental valuable from the output and the efficiency side. As I talked about on my last page, the key for us and everything that we're doing around digital, industrial, fast works, we now can develop technology on these gas turbines on a continuous basis. Where this was discrete in the past and you would do a move every five years or 10 years, we're doing this continuously. We've already done four models on the gas turbine today and there's a roadmap to continue to push the thermal efficiency above 62%; and our plan is to get it to 65%, and we see that both from what we can do on the gas turbine and what we bring in from Alstom on the combined cycle basis. And that's the roadmap we have to stay ahead of the competition.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'd say, Nigel, I would echo with what Joe said. The Alstom pieces I think give us a window that's greater than what we had anticipated even before we completed the deal, which I think is quite a positive. And then, Jeff, I think the first question was there's no change on really the mix on gross margin.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So I think just to nail that one, I think, Nigel, even with Oil & Gas, I don't think we see...
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I didn't understand that that was the question. But yes, (1:00:42) launch for the year – with the launches, but that's all wrapped up in our 50 basis point margin improvement.
Operator:
And our final question comes from Robert McCarthy with Stifel.
Robert McCarthy - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for fitting me in.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Rob.
Robert McCarthy - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hey. It looks like overnight you did about $100 million deal for Daintree Networks in Australia and basically in the network lighting space. And part of the rationale, at least from Daintree's standpoint, they're very excited about the Predix opportunity for lighting controls. Maybe you could talk a little bit about is this the change in the margin in terms of how you're thinking about investing in that business?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think the way I would look at this, Rob, is this was a system deal that allows us in kind of the LED space to do a better job with controls. So I would view this as kind of a one-off from the standpoint of this was just a very unique technology that had a very good fit with doing these systems. Now kind of what Jeff said in the past, so what Beth and the rest of the team has said, we're going to get this year some very big LED orders from commercial real estate people and things like that. So we're going to be at a run rate that's substantially over $1 billion. But the Daintree control fit has really allowed us to build a system, and this was a classic make-versus-buy call that just allows us to accelerate...
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
It was absolutely a critical component to making these things work, no question.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Okay. A couple of quick announcements. The replay of our webcast will be available this afternoon on our Investor website. Our 2016 Shareowners Meeting will be next Wednesday in Jacksonville, Florida. Jeff, you're going to present at the EPG Conference on May 18. And we're also going to hold the GE Digital Investor Day on June 23 out in San Ramon, California. Thanks for joining today's webcast.
Operator:
This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matt Cribbins - VP of Investor Communications Jeff Immelt - Chairman and CEO Jeff Bornstein - SVP and CFO
Analysts:
Scott R. Davis - Barclays Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Andrew Obin - Bank of America Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Steven E. Winoker - Sanford E. Bernstein Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Ellen and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matt Cribbins:
Good morning and thanks for joining our fourth quarter 2015 webcast. Earlier today we posted the press release, presentation, and supplemental on our website at www.ge.com/investor. As always, elements of this presentation are forward looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change as the world changes. Today I’m joined by our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; and our CFO, Jeff Bornstein. Now, I’d like to turn it over to Jeff Immelt.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks, Matt. Let me start with some thoughts on the macro environment and GE’s fit in it. For the last few years I’ve talked about a slow growth and volatile economy. This is still my view. In the fourth quarter across our own large industrial footprint orders grew are 1% organically and our backlog is at a record of $315 billion up 7% organically. Our biggest industrial business which is power had organic orders growth of 29% in the quarter. I’ve a difficult time reconciling this with the mood that is in the markets. Clearly oil pricing is a concern and will have an impact. But our organic orders growth in the Middle East were up 14% in the quarter. So our economic activity is ongoing. I know there is a concern about emerging markets in total, but our organic growth was up 7% in the quarter ex-Alstom. And our business in China grew slightly organically in the year and backlog grew by 11%. So we are seeing a lot of the economic volatility, but there is still enough business out there for GE to hit its goals. The GE team had a good quarter in a volatile environment, total operating EPS was $0.52 up 27% and industrial EPS was $0.47 up 27%. Orders were up slightly in organic growth as down slightly versus a year ago. Total industrial margins expanded by 80 basis points, and 2015 CFOA grew by 8% to $16.4 billion. Industrial profit expanded by 3% organically. We hit or exceeded all of our goals in 2015, organic growth was 3% with 80 basis points of margin expansion leading to 7% organic profit growth. EPS was $1.31 up 17%. We achieved this despite having $0.05 of FX headwind. The verticals hit their plan and capital return $4.3 billion to the parent. Our cash and free cash flow execution was ahead of plan. We returned $33 billion to investors, including the excellent execution with Synchrony. We also executed a massive amount of portfolio change in the year. GE Capital exceeds or ahead of plan with $157 billion of signings to-date. The impact of Alstom was flat on EPS slightly better than expected. Alstom had an impact on several segments and Jeff will take you through those results, but on balance we like what we see in Alstom. And last week we announced the disposition of appliances to hire for $5.4 billion. This will create an attractive gain and allow us to significantly increase our restructuring targets in 2016. So we’re committed to our 2016 framework in the face of macroeconomic volatility. Now for orders. Orders grew by 3%, which was up 1% organically and as I said earlier our backlog is $315 billion up 7% ex-Alstom. Alstom added $29 billion to our backlog. Services grew by 5%, which was up 3% organically and equipment grew by 2%, which was down slightly organically. Service orders were strong, our power gen service orders grew by 13% ex-Alstom and commercial aviation service orders were up 14%. Healthcare service orders were up 3% and Alstom orders were $2.6 billion. We had some nice wins with Alstom in China on the hydro business several combined cycle gas turbine power plants with richer GE content. And the Hinkley Point Nuclear Steam turbine in the United Kingdom. On the product side of GE we also had some solid highlights. Two I’ll call out, power booked 12 HA turbine orders in the quarter and we now have 33 in backlog. In addition we have another 49 technical selections. And in healthcare, our MR orders grew by 18% in the quarter and our bioprocessing grew by 16% in the quarter. So great results by those businesses. Globally orders were generally positive growing 8% in total and 12% in the growth regions. As I said earlier, we had strengthened the Middle East and ASEAN and India, and Latin America was also decent. Including Alstom, China was up 15% in orders in the quarter and backlog grew by 16% to $21 billion. Order pricing was up 0.9% in the quarter and we have good pricing momentum in both aviation and power. So overall, our backlog and orders pricing gives us high visibility as we approach our organic growth targets in 2016. So let’s talk about the execution of the team and what you saw on the segment results. Overall, the team executed in a tough environment in the quarter, organic growth was down slightly and for the year organic growth was up 3% with seven of eight segments growing. Service remains steady up 5% in the year and 4% in the quarter organically. The oil and gas team I’d really like to call out because I think they executed very well in 2015. But the 7% decline in revenue the organic operating profit grew by 1%. And this is ahead of what we said last year. Our team executed on restructuring they improved their value gap and they invested in their core franchise. And we expect the team to continue to execute in 2016. Looking at revenue in 2016 let me just give you a few metrics and some things to think about. We primarily ship from backlog so orders and backlog growth matter. In 2015 six to seven businesses grew backlog some substantially, when we do our analytics around convertible backlog and business performance we see a path to 2% to 4% organic growth for ‘16 even with a very difficult oil and gas market. The most robust part of our business is service. Service backlog grew by 16% in 2015 and we expect another year of 20% plus growth in our digital applications. Both of these support sustained growth in services. We had another strong quarter and year-end margins, for the year our industrial margins were up 80 basis points at the segment level and 110 basis points overall. Services were up 40 basis points and equipment was up 20 basis points. We continue to make good progress on value gap up more than $450 million on the year in cost productivity. Mix was favorable in the quarter and in addition we have solid momentum for cost out. Again due to the higher appliances gain we can do a record level of restructuring in ‘16 to fortify our framework. Specifically we believe we can execute on an incremental $1.7 billion in the year, which should yield incremental benefits. Last year we discussed new compensation plans that was aligned with investors and delivered results, I’m convinced that this incentivized our team to deliver superior results in ‘15 and we have set our 2016 targets to drive our framework. Our strategy and business model is paying off and we believe we can deliver strong performance in the face of economic volatility. Now for cash, CFOA grew for the year by 8%, industrial free cash flow grew by 4%, and total free cash flow grew by 14% to $13.5 billion. Total year core industrial cash flow ex-Alstom was $12.6 billion, up 3% and total year free cash flow conversion was 85% in line with our expectations. GE capital dividends were $4.3 billion for the year and we’re still on track for $18 billion in dividends to the parent in 2016. The balance sheet is very strong and the price for appliances was a pleasant surprise. The business had been improving and there was strong interest in the business and a price of $5.4 billion gives us more than $1.3 billion of incremental cash. For capital allocation we returned $33 billion in the year including Synchrony and looking at 2016 we’re still on track to return $26 billion to investors in dividend and buyback. So before I turn over to Jeff let me reflect a little on the Alstom results. We’ve integrated too much of revenue all of the deal related cost and the impact of the joint ventures all for the first time. There is inherent complexity as we go through so bear with us, but in general I would say the business and our outlook and our execution are on track and we’re still excited about Alstom.
Jeff Bornstein:
Thanks, Jeff, I’ll start with the fourth quarter summary. Revenues were $33.9 billion, up 1% in the quarter. Industrial revenues including corporate were up 3% to $31.3 billion. You could see on the right side that Industrial segments were down 1% reported and down 1% organic. Alstom revenue up $2 billion in the quarter was offset by $1.3 billion of foreign exchange and dispositions of $700 million. Industrial operating plus verticals EPS was $0.52, up 27% and that’s driven by industrial up 27%, and verticals flat. The Operating EPS number of $0.31 includes other continuing GE Capital activity including headquarter run-off and other exit related items I’ll cover in more details shortly. $0.26 of continuing EPS includes the impact of non-operating pension, and net EPS $0.64 includes discontinued operations. The total disc ops impact was a positive $3.7 billion, driven by the $3.4 billion gain from Synchrony and earnings from the businesses held in sale. As Jeff said we generated $16.4 billion of CFOA for the year that’s up 8%. Industrial CFOA was $12.1 billion down 1%, but up 3% when you exclude Alstom CFOA and taxes associated with the disposition of signaling. The GE tax rate was 5% bringing the total year rate to 14%. The tax rate in the quarter was driven by the appliances transaction moving into 2016 tax benefits associated with integrating our existing service business with Alstom’s business in Switzerland, higher tax benefits principally on the signaling gain we had in the quarter and legislation making the U.S. research credit permitted. The reported GE capital tax rate in the quarter of 39% reflects a tax benefit on a pre-tax loss. The tax rate for the vertical businesses was a negative 13%, reflecting reduced the income at EFS and international tax benefits that will diminish as we complete the GE Capital exit plan. Going forward as we complete the exit, we expect GE Capital vertical tax rate to be approximately 10%. On the right side of the segment results as I mentioned industrial segment revenues were down 1% reported and down 1% organic with foreign exchange and dispositions offsetting Alstom. The foreign exchange was $1.3 billion drag on industrial segment revenue and $163 million impact on industrial segment op profit. The power renewable and energy management businesses were impacted by the Alstom acquisition and I’ll walk you through the impact on the next page. At the December outlook meeting we said we would present industrial results including corporate operating cost. On that basis industrial op profit for the quarter was down 6% reported, but up 3% organically on strong corporate cost performance. To give you context on the quarter organic revenue was down 1% was a little over $1 billion lower than we expected. This was driven by power, lower by about $350 million on expanded scope and BOP, aero and reciprocating engines that did not close in the quarter, about $400 million in renewables on low wind turbines, which I’ll cover more on shortly and $300 million of softness in oil and gas and $100 million of softness in convertible orders in our energy management business. Most of the $1 billion was timing and we expect it to convert in 2016. For the full year organic revenue was up 3%. What’s laid out on this page is the impact of Alstom on the power renewables and energy management businesses. You can see the reported op profit of the businesses in the first column. The impact of Alstom in the middle column and the op profit and the Vs excluding Alstom on the right. Power on a standalone basis would have been down 5%, renewables would have been down 54% and energy management would have been up 4%. The outsize impact of Alstom in energy management business is due to the JV structure of digital energy in the Alstom grid business. We contributed positive earnings from digital energy to Alstom’s business that had negative earnings. Remember this is a 50-50 JV and we consolidate 100% of the revenue, but record only 50% of the earnings. In the case of energy management the 17% organic V reflects the organic performance for the power conversion and industrial solutions business, which is how we will report organic for this segment going forward. The organic V including digital energy would have been plus 19%. In the quarter the EPS impact of Alstom was break even. With a pre-tax loss of $234 million in the segments and an additional $160 million of deal cost and accounting items at corporate offset by a positive tax benefit. Revenue was $2 billion and order were $2.6 billion. As we look to 2016 no change to the guidance we gave you of $0.05 of EPS from Alstom. Next I’ll do the earnings walk as we’ve been doing for the last number of quarters. So you understand the dynamics clearly and what’s going on in the earning. Starting with the first column on the left and working down, industrial operating net income was $4.6 billion and vertical income was $438 million for total industrial plus verticals operating earnings of $5.1 billion. On the other GE Capital line we incurred $2.1 billion of cost in the quarter. This was driven by restructuring charges, the preferred dividend payment, headquarter run off, operating expenses and excess interest cost. We also took an impairments of about $800 million related to the Homer City power plant asset, which I’ll cover more on the GE Capital page. As a result total operating earnings were $3 billion. Including non-operating pension cost continuing earnings were $2.6 billion. We had a $3.7 billion of income in discontinued operations principally related to the Synchrony gain. Adjusting for these items net earnings for the quarter were $6.3 billion. In the center and far right column you can see the associated EPS number and their variance versus prior year. On the next page industrial other items from the quarter. We had $0.04 of charges related to industrial restructuring and other items that we take in a corporate. Charges were $567 million on a pre-tax basis with $160 million of those charges related to the Alstom deal cost and accounting items. We also had a $1 billion of industrial gains in the quarter, which equated to $0.08 of EPS at the transactional tax rates. The pre-tax signaling gain was $622 million and the appliance breakup fee was $175 million. Additionally, we sold our embedded controls business in energy management and our clarient business in healthcare. On the bottom of the page you can see the total year restructuring gains profile. We incurred restructuring charges of $0.12 and had gains of $0.11 for a net charge of a penny for the year. This was $0.02 better than we communicated in December driven by about a penny of lower restructuring primarily Alstom related and slightly higher gains driven by predominantly tax at the transaction level. For 2016, we expect gains in restructuring to largely offset for the year however there will be a quarterly variability in the timing. As Jeff mentioned, we signed the appliances transaction, which we expect to contribute about $0.20 of gain mid-year this year. That combined with some smaller transactions should yield gains of about $0.25 in 2016. We will use this opportunity to continue to invest in improving the industrial margins and cost. This will benefit us not only in 2016, but will position us well for 2017 and 2018. Now I’ll go through the segments starting with the power business. With the combination of Alstom into the power segment, we have reorganized some of the sub-businesses so I’ll take a minute to walk through these changes. First, the thermal business was renamed gas power systems. This business includes gas turbines and steam and generators for combined cycle applications and additionally we moved the equipment side of our aero turbines business to gas power systems. Second, the power services business includes our PGS business and services related to aero turbines. The distributed power business now includes just our reciprocating engines and the service businesses for Jenbacher [ph] and Walker Shaw. Additionally, as you know we have a standalone steam business that we acquired from Alstom. Moving to the financial results, orders in the quarter up $9.6 billion including $1 billion of Alstom orders grew 40%. Excluding Alstom, orders were $8.6 billion up 25% with equipment orders up 46% and services up 8%. Within equipment orders, gas power systems was higher by 60% ex-Alstom. The increase was driven by orders for 55 gas turbines versus 41 last year and expanded scope including BOP for a large Saudi 7 AP order. In the fourth quarter we took new orders for 12 HA turbines versus two last year. Five units in the U.S., four in Pakistan and three in Asia. Our HA backlog now totals 33 with an additional 49 technical selections for a total of 82 units. Aero turbine orders were down 14% on 43 units versus 50 last year and distributed power engines were lower by 12% with weakness in Walker Shaw gas compression partly offset by strong orders in the Jenbacher. Equipment OPI was strong at 6.7% driven by HA turbine demand. Service orders excluding Alstom grew 8% on higher installations growth in multi-year contracts and strong upgrades. AGP sold 42 for the quarter versus 26 a year ago bringing a total year orders on AGPs to 119. Alstom orders as I mentioned totals $1 billion including two steam turbines and 6 HSRGs one in conjunction with GE orders. Ex-Alstom, equipment backlog ended at $8.3 billion up 15%, service backlog grew 4% to $53 billion. In total, power backlog ended the year at $62 billion ex-Alstom and $77 billion with Alstom. Core GE revenues were $6.2 billion down 10% and down 7% organically. Equipment revenues were down 25% driven by fewer gas turbine shipments, foreign exchange and lower balance of plant. In the quarter, the business shipped 28 gas turbines versus 44 a year ago. Total year shipments were 107 units, lower units and lower BOP were driven by no repeat of the large Algerian deal in the fourth quarter of last year. Service revenues were up 1% driven by power services up 8%. AGPs with 35 in the quarter versus 24 a year ago, bringing total shipments to 104 for the year. Strength in power service was partly offset by lower distributed power service down 15%. Alstom revenues in the quarter totaled $917 million with $255 million from equipment and $662 million from services. GE core operating profit was $1.7 billion down 5%. The decrease was driven by lower volume and partially offset by positive value gap. Margins improved 140 basis points in the quarter. Alstom operating profit was a loss of $80 million, reflecting operations, deal cost and accounting adjustments. Given the scale of the Alstom consolidation on our first close things went reasonably well. The core business came in a little lower on revenue than expected driven by the timing of BOP and aero engine shipments. However orders were better than expected on strong demand for both H&F products particularly in Saudi and Pakistan. 2016 is a big execution year with the Alstom integration shipping approximately 24 HA turbines and executing on our product cost strategy. In total, we expect to ship 110 gas turbines and 125 AGPs with 60% to 65% of these units shipping in the second half of the year in 2016. Next I’ll cover renewable, total renewable orders were $2.5 billion in the quarter up 1%. Excluding Alstom, orders were $2 billion down 18% and down 10% ex-foreign exchange. We took orders for 827 wind turbines versus 1,251 a year ago in the quarter. The decline was a result of lower U.S. orders partly driven by the strength in the fourth quarter of last year related to the PTC extension. This year the PTC extension includes a multi-year phase out. Orders were also impacted by the shift from the 1.x product line to the new 2.x and 3.x products that drive fewer units, but more megawatts. Additionally, we had three deals delayed to 2016 for a total of 240 turbines or above $550 million of orders. Orders outside the U.S. were up 19% ex-FX and down 2% reported with strength in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia. Backlog in the renewables’ core business ended at $7.1 billion, up 27% year-over-year. Also renewable orders were $469 million in the quarter with a large hydro win of $400 million in China at the Three Gorges project. Alstom added $5.3 billion of backlog to the renewables’ business. Renewables’ revenue for the fourth quarter totaled $1.9 billion lowered by 16% and down 8% ex-exchange. The Legacy GE business had revenue of $1.9 billion down 20% reported and down 12% ex-foreign exchange. Core unit shipments were 847 in the quarter versus 1,081 last year. This was lower than expected as two deals for 165 turbines pushed into 2016. Operating profit ex-Alstom was $125 million down 54%. The decline was attributable to lower volume of 234 units, negative mix from the new 2.x product as we come down the cost curve and foreign exchange. Alstom op profit was a loss of $69 million. In 2016, we expect to ship about 350 onshore turbines, including 250 of Alstom wind units. As Jeff discussed earlier 2016 organic revenues should be high single-digits to low double-digits depending on the mix of unit shipped. Core op profit should be flat to up slightly as the business focus on improving the cost curve for the new 2.0 and 3.0 megawatt product launches and delivering $100 million of Alstom cost synergies. Next on aviation, global passenger air travel continues to grow robustly up 6.7% November year-to-date both domestic and international markets are strong, particularly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. Air freight volume grew 2.3% November year-to-date. Orders in the fourth quarter of $6.8 billion were down 16%, commercial engine orders were down 47% as expected. We booked $1.9 billion of engine orders including $100 million of GE90, $600 million of GenEx orders, $400 million of LEAP CFM orders and $500 million of CF6 orders. Commercial equipment backlog ended the year at $29.5 billion, up 11%. Military equipment orders of $353 million in the quarter were higher by two times on a large Navy F-414 order. Service orders were higher by 9% with strong commercial spares orders up 10% to $39 million a day and CSAs were up 24% in the quarter. Military services were down 20%. Services backlog ended the year at over $116 billion, up 15% versus last year. Revenues of $6.7 billion were up 5% with commercial equipment revenues down 5%. We shipped 59 GenEx units versus 77 last year driven by schedule. We have no delinquencies to borrowing. Military equipment revenue was down 1% and services revenue was up strongly at 18%, driven by commercial services up 24%. Operating profit grew 12% on strengthened services, positive value gap and good cost productivity. Operating margin rates improved basis points. The Aviation team delivered another solid execution year, for the year revenues grew 3%, operating profit grew 11% and margins expanded 160 basis points. Our share on each of our engine platforms is very strong and a LEAP launch remains on track for mid-year. We expect another solid year from David Joyce and the team at Aviation. Next is oil and gas. The segment continues to operate in a very difficult environment and we continue to be focused on being hyper competitive on new opportunities and very aggressive on the cost structure. For the fourth quarter orders of $3.3 billion were down 35% and down 28% organically. Equipment orders were down 52% or 44% organically. All segments had lower orders driven by delays in reduced CapEx spending with the exception of our downstream platform, which grew orders 51% reported and up 84% organically. For the other segments on a reported basis, subsea was down 49%, TMS was down 78% and surface was down 65%. Service orders were down 17% and down 13% organically. On a reported basis TMS was down 24%, surface was down 29%, subsea was down 35% and M&C was down 8%, partly offset by downstream which exclude service orders by 20%. Not included in orders, but included in backlog TMS signed four new long-term service agreements totaling $1.5 billion in the quarter. Total backlog at the ended the year at above $23 billion, which was down 9% versus last year and down 4% ex-exchange. Revenues in the quarter were down 16% reported and down 6% organic. Foreign exchange reduced revenues $437 million in the quarter, equipment revenues were down 21% reported and 12% organically. By business surface was down 49%, TMS down 18%, subsea down 15%. Organically TMS was down 8%, subsea was down 5%. Service revenues were down 9% and flat organically with M&C down 5% offset by TMS up 22% organically. Operating profit in the quarter was down 19% and down 7% organic. Foreign exchange in the quarter was a $93 million headwind. The business continued to deliver on cost reductions and inflation which partially offset the negative volume and price. Margin rates were down 70 basis points on an organic basis margins contracted 10 basis points. The business executed in early and aggressive cost-out program beginning in 2014 delivering $600 million of cost out during 2015. For the year revenue and op profit were down 5% and up 1% respectively and organic margin rates actually expanded 90 basis points. For 2016 our best view for revenues and op profit continues to be down 10% to 15%, most likely at the bottom end of that range given the outlook for the industry and our view of volume and price. Our base plan at December outlook call for $400 million of cost out in 2016 to get to the $1 billion run rate over 2015 and 2016. We are working another $400 million of additional cost out reductions to offset the likely lower volume of price pressure. We expect the first half to be tougher year-over-year versus the second half and [indiscernible] orders team have executed very well in 2015 and we expect the business will continue to outperform on a relative basis in 2016. Next up in healthcare, orders of $5.2 billion were down 4%, but up 1% organically. Geographically orders in the U.S. were down 1%, Europe was down 8% and up 4% ex-FX and the Middle East region was down 4% and up 5% ex-FX. China was down 6% reported and down 3% ex-FX. Tenders in China continue to improve slowly year-over-year tenders were flat after several quarters of contraction. In terms of business lines healthcare systems orders were down 6% and down 1% excluding exchange. The U.S. was down 2% driven by lower molecular imaging and X-Ray on tough comparisons offset partially by strong MR up 33% and ultrasound up 5% on new product upgrades. Europe was down 8% reported, but grew 5% ex-foreign exchange. Europe was up 5% ex-FX for the year and have seen six consecutive quarters of organic growth. China orders were down 11% reported and down 9% excluding exchange. Our current outlook for 2016 is for orders growth in China as government tenders begin to rebound. Life Sciences continued to performance very well. In the fourth quarter orders grew 2% up 8% ex-exchange. Within Life Science bioprocess grew 16% ex-FX was strengthening Korea, China and the U.S. Healthcare revenues were down 3% reported and up 3% ex-FX. Healthcare systems revenues were lower by 4%, reported and up 3% ex-FX and Life Sciences revenues grew 6% excluding exchange. Operating profit was lower versus the fourth quarter of last year by 4%, excluding exchange and lower by 8% reported. Volume growth and cost productivity were more than offset by price and higher growth investments. Margin rates contracted 100 basis points in the quarter. In 2016 we expect John in the healthcare business to improve operationally in terms of earnings and margin rates. Our outlook is for the Life Science business to continue to grow strongly and profitably and for HCS business to execute the digital transformation and aggressively reduced products and service cost. In transportation North American carloads were down 6.4% in the quarter driven by a very weak carloads in call down almost 20% and petroleum down 13%, intermodal volume was also down 1% in the quarter. For the year volume was down 2.2% driven by commodities with intermodal higher by 2%. Lower volume and operational improvements have improved velocity on the rails, on average 2.4 miles an hour that’s up 10% versus last year. For our business orders in the quarter were very strong up 66% to 3.2 billion, driven by equipment orders up 113%. We took our largest order ever of 1,000 locos in India and also secure node for 100 Tier 4s in the U.S. Service orders were down 6% at ex-signaling, on lower overhaul volume driven by increased park locos. Revenues were up 2% reported and up 11% ex-signaling. Equipment revenues were higher by 17%, 27% organically, principally driven by locomotives partly offset by services down 8% on lower overhauls. Op profit was higher in the quarter by 18% ex-signaling and up 8% reported. Increased loco volume, value gap and productivity drove earnings higher. Margins improved 100 basis points reported and 120 basis points organically. The transportation team delivered a tremendous year. Excluding the signaling sale they grew revenues 7%, operating profit 16% and improved margins 150 basis points. They launched and delivered 425 Tier 4 locomotives on time, on cost and the performance is significantly exceeded customer expectations. 2016 is going to be a more challenging year with softer demand in the U.S. and in the commodity markets. We shipped 985 locos in 2015 and expect to ship about 800 in 2016. The team is executing an aggressive cost plan to address the lower volume. We expect the business to be down mid-single digits on op profit in 2016. On energy management as I mentioned earlier describing results for energy management is complicated by the contribution of our digital energy business to the grid JV. For financial reporting purposes we report 100% of the grid JVs orders and revenues, but only report 50% of their earnings. Going forward we will report results on this basis, but all our organic calculations will include only industrial solutions and the power conversion business. Orders in the quarter were $2.6 billion up 15% reported, of the $2.6 billion $1.1 billion was from the grid business with Alstom contributing $716 million and digital energy business contributing $342 million. Digital energy orders were down 10% reported and down 8% organically. Power conversion orders were down 17% and down 11% organically, on no repeat of larger renewable orders in the fourth quarter of last year. For the total year power conversion orders were very strong up 19% organically. Industrial Solutions orders in the quarter were down 17% report and down 11% organically, driven by foreign exchange and dispositions. North America demand in the quarter was weak across all Industrial Solutions segments. Backlog for the quarter ended at $11.7 billion. Reported revenues of $2.4 billion were higher by 20%. Grid solutions revenue totaled $952 million inclusive of $393 million of digital energy revenue. Industrial Solutions revenues were down 8% and down 4% organically. Power conversion was down 6%, but up 9% organically. Reported op profit for the energy management segment was $33 million, which includes the effects of establishing the grid JV and Alstom’s results. Before the effects of Alstom, as I covered earlier, energy management earned $118 million of op profit up 4% driven by the productivity and the gain on sale in our media’s business partly offset by lower Industrial Solutions volume. The contribution of our digital energy business to grid JV combined with the Alstom grid operating results equaled the loss which we recorded at 50% or $5 million. As we announced last week and Jeff spoke about it earlier, we have an agreement to sell our appliance units to Haier, which we expect to close mid-year. Fourth quarter results for both Appliances & Lighting had revenue essentially flat. Appliance revenue was up slightly from last year and lightings saw a flat revenue and growth organically. LED growth in the quarter was 28%, operating profit for the segment was up 28% with very strong performance in appliances up 51% on strong cost performance and up 4% organically in lighting, but down 10% reported driven by foreign exchange. The appliance team had a strong year essentially doubling profits and expanding margins significantly. They’ve also done an outstanding job managing the business through this disposition process. Lastly, I’ll cover GE Capital. Our Verticals businesses earned $438 million this quarter, that’s up 7% from prior year driven by operations and higher tax benefits partially offset by lower gains. Portfolio quality remains stable and the aviation portfolio finished the quarter with zero delinquencies in only two AOGs. Working down the page, GE Capital corporate generated a $2 billion loss in the quarter principally driven by restructuring and other charges related to the GE Capital transformation. Preferred dividend payments, excess interest costs including the cost associated with the debt exchange we completed in October and headquarter’s operating cost. In the current quarter we took an impairment of approximately $800 million on our Homer City coal-fired power plant in the U.S. related to a decision to exit the investment overtime. This investment was not strategic to the verticals’ go forward business and this actually aligns this portfolio more closely to the GE store going forward. These charges within the framework of the $23 billion charge to effect the GE Capital transformation. Discontinued operations, which now includes the consumer segment generated earnings of $3.7 billion, primarily driven by a $3.4 billion gain associated with the Synchrony split off as well as the earnings and gains from discontinued operation. Overall, GE Capital reported $2.1 billion of earnings and we ended the quarter with $167 billion of E&I excluding liquidity. The verticals ended the quarter with $79 billion in the E&I excluding liquidity. Our liquidity levels remains very strong at $91 billion. Our Basel III Tier 1 common ratio was 14.5%, which is up 80 basis points from the third quarter after paying dividends of $3.9 billion during the quarter bringing our total dividends in 2015 to $4.3 billion. Assets sales remained ahead of plan and we ended the year with $157 billion of signed deals and $104 billion of deals closed. Overall, keeping that GE Capital team have executed ahead of schedule on all aspects versus the plan we share with you back in April. We expect to be largely complete by the end of 2016 and are on track to file for CP receipt [ph] in the first quarter of this year. And with that, I’ll turn it back Jeff.
Jeff Immelt:
So let me end by going through our operating framework. This is the framework I showed in December. We’ve no change but increasing our goals for disposition cash. I know a lot happened earlier in the year, but 2015 closes out where we thought it would. So let’s start with organic growth of 2% to 4%. We finished 2015 with $315 billion of backlog earlier outlined how we achieved those goals even in the face of a tougher oil and gas market. We’ve broad business and geographic diversity and service, which is 80% of our earnings should continue to grow by 3% to 5% in 2016. We had two months of Alstom in 2015 and so far so good, we think our synergies were achievable and with the appliances transaction we’re now looking at the ability to fund incremental restructuring. In addition this gives us upside to our disposition cash for the year. All of our goals for GE Capital remain on track, our dispositions are a year ahead of plan, capital dividends are the key to returning about $26 billion to you this year and we plan to file for SIFI de-designation later this quarter. We’re acting to get more out of this economy. We’re aggressively managing our cost structure to capitalize on deflation. We have a very strong balance sheet with substantial cash. We have the ability to finance our industrial products, which is a huge advantage. Our diversity in both regions and markets allows us to outperform single purpose competitors. We can move production to the lowest cost regions and capitalize on currency or excess capacity. We’ve all the elements to help ourselves in a tough economy. Buyback capacity, substantial restructuring funding and services growth and we’ve continued to invest. Our long-term commitments for R&D, globalization investments like Alstom have built a huge backlog. So just to recap some of our highlights for ‘16 double-digit EPS growth, returning $26 billion of cash, Alstom integration, digital execution, there is really a lot of value here in GE. So Matt now let me turn it back to you for some questions.
Matt Cribbins :
Thanks, Jeff. Operator please open up the lines for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott R. Davis:
Hi, good morning guys.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Scott. Good morning.
Scott R. Davis:
One of the things that’s changed in the last couple of months is just the severe currency devaluations we’ve seen in some of the emerging markets out there, but your order book in EM seems to be pretty good, I mean are you pricing, can you just give us a sense of kind of current and past are you pricing contracts in U.S. dollars, are you pricing them in local currency or is there a mix, just a little color there?
Jeff Immelt:
Okay, maybe I’ll do a little bit on the geographic side Scott and then give you a sense. We had a very strong fourth quarter in the Middle East that was a lot driven by power, pricing actually was a pretty good on those transactions for the quarter. I’d say on balance the pricing we’ve experienced on power, rail, aviation usually those show in the pricing and the backlog and the order book. So I don’t think we’ve seen really any diminution of pricing in the emerging market orders. So you know guys our stuff is lumpy so there is big transactions, but I don’t -- we don’t see anything. Jeff would you want to add to that?
Jeff Bornstein:
Just a couple of things, so what we do in China there has been very little albeit a little bit more lately the differences in exchange between the U.S. to China are pretty di minimus, a lot of our businesses that I gave you are dollar based and then obviously in oil and gas and energy management and a number of other businesses we do work in local currency. And so Brazil where we’re in Brazil and Europe in the euro we’ve had a little bit of a currency impact and that’s what you hear us reporting when we give you reported versus organic. On the orders front I don’t think we’ve seen that big of an impact, and when you look at orders in the quarter particularly in power, orders price has been very, very good, very strong particularly on the H turbine, largely because we’re selling out slots.
Scott R. Davis:
That makes sense. And then just moving to oil and gas how was $30 oil impact your 2016 outlook I guess what I mean is that you have I mean 2015 was pretty amazing with the cost out and you haven’t seen decremental margins at all in that business and is that sustainable and are there break points in oil prices where it’s just not sustainable any more to maintain that type of drop through?
Jeff Immelt:
So again what I would say is that just on a macro comment, there is still lot of efficiency opportunities we have in our oil and gas business, both in the supply chain. And so I think what Jeff talked about earlier in terms of the ability to do incremental restructuring is still out there and then I would just again segment our business into kind of project based business where we’re still in execution mode and that’s probably 70% or 80% of our total revenues and then businesses like drilling and surface that are probably the most susceptible as oil pricing goes down to $30 we’re trying to stay ahead on the cost curve is going to be very difficult in the future and we just need to be flexible at a $30 environment the one we see today. But that’s a very small portion of our overall oil and gas business.
Jeff Bornstein:
I would just add, I would just expand a little bit on what Jeff said. So if you think about the business long-term more contractual and project based stuff. Turbo machinery, downstream and subsea, that’s about 65% of our revenue in ‘16 and of those revenues more than 70% of those are in backlog. If you add the M&C business on top of that, which tend to be more flow in convertible. But it’s about roughly 50% exposure oil and gas and 50% to non-oil and gas, that’s 85% of revenue and when you add M&C you’ve got about little bit north of 65% of next year’s revenues in backlog. So to Jeff’s point the real short-term exposure today anyways we look at is service and drilling and they are very susceptible to volatility around what they see for convertible demand in any period of time. But it’s 15% of the revenue.
Jeff Immelt:
Again Jeff I'll come back and -- because of appliances guys we have kind of $2 billion plus of restructuring that wasn’t in our plan when we stood in front of you in December.
Jeff Bornstein:
So I am going to follow on with that. So the way we think about it within the range of down 10% or 15%, everything else being we maybe at the lower end of the range we may be closer to down 15%, we came into the year we told you we had plans to take $400 million a cost out on top of the $600 million a cost out we delivered in ‘15 for a total $1 billion over the two years ‘15 and ‘16. We are now going after an incremental $400 million on top of that. So now we are trying to deliver $800 million of cost out to 2016 and appliances is an important part of our ability to do that. So we are going to invest more aggressively in 2016 in restructuring the oil and gas footprint that we even did in 2015. So that gives us Scott some ability to moderate potentially if revenues are even lower or the lower end of the range then we can moderate the impact on profitability.
Scott R. Davis:
Yeah, sounds like appliances was timed just right. So good luck, congrats guys. I’ll step off.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
The next question is from Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, thank you.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Julian. Good morning.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Just a quick question firstly on Alstom, the core business as you say lost money on the EBIT line in Q4, you’ve talked about $200 million of core Alstom profit in 2016, how quickly do you think the business goes back to profits or is it sort of a second half turn around on the core Alstom business?
Jeff Bornstein:
I think we expect it -- we are often running on the synergies as we speak, having said that most of those synergies and most of the improvement in the core operations is going to happen with will accelerate over the course of the year. I think we feel very good about the guidance we gave you in December around the outlook for Alstom in 2016 of $0.05 contribution that today feels very solid. Now I’d go back to what we said about 2015 on that call, we came in almost line item by line item virtually right on top of what we told you we’re a little better in tax than we estimated. But the other elements of the cost in the operations we talked about on that call is exactly where we came in and ended up Alstom in the fourth quarter ended up being essentially break even with tax or zero drag on EPS. So I think right now we are on course and the benefits and the improvement will accelerate as you would expect over the course of the year.
Jeff Immelt:
I would echo with what Jeff said Julian. Look as you guys can see this is a large complicated transaction to get it integrated. But when we look underlying in terms of customer response and geographic opportunities and things like that I think this is everything we thought it would be. So now we just got to get out there and execute.
Julian Mitchell:
Great thanks. And then just a quick follow-up on healthcare, the profits there were down I think about 9% in the second half of 2015, you’re guiding profits up in 2016. What is it that’s really swinging there sort of from the second half to the next 12 months.
Jeff Immelt:
Look I think Julian, when I think about healthcare in 2016, this should be low to mid-single digit organic revenue grower with margin enhancement, that’s what investors should expect in healthcare. I think when you look at the second half of last year we allowed the business to spend incrementally on NPI to make some changes in their IT business to invest more. So basically I think we allowed them to increase their spending in the second half. That should be opportunities when we look in the future. Better VCP, better NPIs and I expect healthcare to have a decent 2016.
Jeff Bornstein:
We’re going to deliver a better product cost profile in 2016.
Julian Mitchell:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning, guys.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Jeff so can you talk about your ability to grow margin for the company in ‘16. If you look at 4Q you had 110 basis points of gross margin improvement ex-Alstom despite the declining organic sales, your value gap and mix give you 100 basis points of that improvement. So given you higher margin services orders are growing faster than equipment and raw material costs are coming down, could you sustain the 100 basis points you saw in the quarter from mix and value gap as you move forward?
Jeff Bornstein:
So great question. Our goal what we’ve told forces year-on-year we have a target to improve margins 50 basis points, that’s true as well in 2016. So the geography of where that improvements comes from I think it will be largely the same I think value gap will contribute a little bit less in 2016 to the margin expansion I think variable cost productivity or productivity general will or product cost if you will, will contribute more. And then corporate and SG&A will also contribute in 2016. So we’re still on the 50 basis points march at op profits and down through corporate costs or industrial margins. But the mix between what value gap contributes and what we get out of productivity was going to change a little bit.
Jeff Immelt:
I would also say guys last year was the first year of our IC plan where we call the AIP. More than the half of the businesses have gross margin targets they all have margin targets. This has been really a god driver of these results and we think we’ve set the bar appropriate in ‘16 to get the same kind of benefits.
Jeff Immelt:
And then I would say if you mentioned services growth were equivalent that’s important actually there is no question about it. We need a big service businesses PGS and aviation to grow and deliver with it because we have these product launches. So we’ve got the H turbine coming next year, we got a little over 100 LEAP engines launching next year and we got the 2.x and 3.x wind turbines going. So continuing the momentum and services is very, very important to the overall story.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Jeff if I could just follow-up on service for a second, your organic service orders slowed slightly in the quarter from 4Q versus 3Q but still good at 3% you guys are going at 3% to 5% service growth. Can you talk about the sustainability of your service business especially in power in the current environment and how much is digital really helping is that seems like robust growth there?
Jeff Immelt:
Yeah look I mean I would start again with the digital focus, which is growing 20% not just in power, but in other businesses but we also have very targeted programs in all of our businesses to go after the aged install base, Alstom brings unique capabilities to the power business. Aviation guys, we’re still seeing good revenue passenger miles. There is lots of opportunities for our aviation business to continue to grow. Healthcare is actually after several years of flat revenue and services is actually grown 3% or 4% the last few quarters. So we’re very programmatic in the service side. I think we see that continuing into next year with digital being the number one driver. And at the end of the day I think in an environment like this, this is the bolus for the company, is the installed base.
Jeff Bornstein:
The only think I’ll add Jeff is the upgrade. So we think we’ll do at least 125 AGPs next year in every one of the businesses is really pushing on the upgrade.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Thanks, guys.
Jeff Immelt:
Great, thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Hi, guy. Good morning.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Andrew. Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
Just the question on restructuring. Now that you have this extra $0.20 from the appliances. I am sure you did have some restructuring built into your number before because you were expecting appliance sale in the middle of the year. But given that the gain brings restructuring and you have a lot more restructuring this year. Does that mean that there is more cushion to the numbers or does that mean that the core guidance is actually reflecting more macro headwinds?
Jeff Bornstein:
Okay. So in our core plan we expected to drill about $1.7 billion pre-tax of restructuring in 2016. We will double that with appliances. And so we will do a lot heavier restructuring, first of all we’re going to try to accelerate a lot of what we were going to do in Alstom in ‘17 and ‘18 as much of that as we can actually we’re going to try to accelerate. We’re going to do more as I mentioned earlier in oil and gas and every one of the businesses we’re going to do more around the product service cost footprint of the company. So it does both things when we spend that incremental money there will be some amount of benefit in 2016, but maybe even more importantly it’s a great base to work from for 2017 and ‘18 and it will help us continue to deliver these margin improvements that you've seen.
Jeff Immelt:
I would add Andrew look. I’m going to say the same thing today that I said a year ago. Every one of our businesses has a very detailed incentive compensation plan that internally just like last year rolls out to more than we talked about externally. And that’s the way we’ve run the place and that’s why we continue to run the place. And I just -- I look at the ability to do incremental restructuring as a good opportunity for us to continue to deliver good results.
Andrew Obin :
And just the follow-up question, are you guys seeing any signs of stabilization in China because that seems to be a big concern I apologize if I missed your remarks in the beginning.
Jeff Immelt:
Yeah I think for us that the first thing I’d say there is no one China, right. I don’t think macro anymore when I talk about China I think micro. I think about aviation, healthcare, power, mining that’s how I think everybody is got to start thinking about China. Now aviation remains super strong right. I think on the power side it’s going to become a gas more predominantly gas turbine market it’s been cyclical but I like how we’re positioned in the future in China there. And the third business is healthcare, healthcare has had a tough couple of years, I think the sense of our team is that we feel that stabilizing by tough I mean it’s gone from up 10% to 15% to maybe flat to down slightly right. So our team I think has seen some signs of stabilization there. That to me is the swing or let’s say on China, but aviation is super strong even today.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you very much.
Jeff Immelt:
Great, thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Joe. Good morning.
Joseph Ritchie:
Good morning, guys. And so maybe following up on Andrew’s question slightly differently I guess as you go into 2016 and then take a look back into 2015. Industrial EBIT grew very low single-digit this past year and as we head into 2016 there are a lot of headwinds whether it’s orders down, mix is becoming a bigger headwind and then you’ve clearly oil and gas pressures are intensifying. And so what I’m trying to understand is how much of the incremental improvement in industrial segment EBIT is going to be driven by the restructuring actions that you’re taking?
Jeff Bornstein:
Well. Let me go back and try to help you with that in terms of what 2015 was. So in the fourth quarter our restructuring efforts delivered a little over $220 million of benefits. And those are restructuring have started in ‘14 and some of them were executed in 2015 et cetera. And for the year that was about $1 billion of value if you will against margins. In 2016 will roll forward and based on what we did in ‘15 and the benefits realizing in 2016 and the incremental spend in 2016. I mean everything else being equal we would expect that more and more to flow to industrial EBIT in 2015. And yes it’s part and parcel about remaking the competitiveness of this company around products and service cost and it’s critically important and our track record I think over the last couple of years of these businesses delivering back to margin improvements based on the restructuring spend I think it’s been on balance very good.
Joseph Ritchie:
Yeah no that’s fair and it has been good and it clearly should help provide a tailwind for 2017 and 2018. Maybe one follow-up question Jeff just a reminder on $35 billion in the composition of the $35 billion dividend from the asset sales and leverage and has that changed at all just given the asset prices have come down a little bit at the start of this year?
Jeff Immelt:
No, so key thing is team have done an absolutely remarkable job executing against this plan, as you know Jeff mentioned I’ll just reiterate a little bit just to give base line everybody $157 billion of signings, $104 billion of asset closings in 2015. In 2016 we’ll sign something on order of magnitude of another $50 billion in deals we’d expect more than half of that to happen hopefully here in the first half of the year and we’ll close, we’ll get wire transfers for about another $100 billion of closings in 2016. And so far we’re tracking slightly better on a price of intangible book what we presented in April of next year and we think everything else being equal as we sit here today with $50 billion of signings to go all which are in process that we’re going to end up at or maybe incrementally slightly better on the price to tangible book when we get through the end of this process hopefully at the end of 2016.
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay, thanks guys. I’ll get back in the queue.
Jeff Immelt:
Great, thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven E. Winoker :
Yes thanks and good morning.
Jeff Bornstein:
Hey, Steve.
Steven E. Winoker :
Hey. So you covered a lot of ground, but one of the things on page four, the simplification of SG&A cost being flat in the fourth quarter just maybe run us through the dynamics there in terms of it coming down off of the prior savings you’ve been seeing in quarter-after-quarter there?
Jeff Bornstein:
Sure so we had $224 million of SG&A structural cost out in the quarter that was down 7% year-over-year for the year we’re down about $800 million or about 6%. And the reason you see it is not contributing to the margin performance is because that $224 million came out at about the same rate as volume came down in the quarter. So it’s not that we didn’t get cost out we absolutely did it’s not that we lost any momentum. $224 million is about the middle of what we’ve been each of the last four quarters actually probably closer to last eight quarters, it’s just the volume was down and so it didn’t contribute. We expect -- I think we said in December we expect to improve SG&A to sales in 2016 and so you should expect it to show up on that line is contributing to the margin expansion in 2016. As it did for 30 basis points this year.
Steven E. Winoker :
Okay, sounds good. And then if I just want to clarify in the pricing again when you point to the 3.8% in power and you talked about the HA turbine driving a lot of that you guys are -- how are you thinking about like-for-like pricing versus mix is that HA is all like-for-like pricing if not driving the mix?
Jeff Immelt:
Yeah that’s all like-for-like.
Steven E. Winoker :
Okay all right and then just…
Jeff Immelt:
Go ahead I'm sorry.
Steven E. Winoker :
No, go ahead.
Jeff Immelt:
I was just going to say I think what the team has done in this HA launch is pretty remarkable so all the growth in the heavy duty gas market is this class of turbine. The gigawatts get added over the next couple of years 75% of that’s going to come from this class of turbine. They’ve gone from no share to a very high level of share and this is about $300 million of price in the quarter on the H and it’s effectively we’re selling slots out. So it’s been a terrific story.
Steven E. Winoker :
Okay, I’ll pass it on. Thanks guys.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks Steve.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Good morning, how are you?
Jeff Immelt:
How are you?
Jeffrey Sprague:
Great. Hey just back to kind of the whole restructuring dynamic and kind of understanding the bridge into 2016. So I think your guide for ‘16 roughly implies about $19 billion in segment op if we use the December construct. So just building off $18 billion in 2015 with $1 billion in restructuring savings and Alstom of $600 million is that how we should be thinking about it so you have a kind of core erosion elsewhere in the portfolio of $400 million to $500 million?
Jeff Immelt:
I don’t think so, Jeff.
Jeff Bornstein:
I don’t have that reconciliation in front of me. We’ll get back to you on that, but here is how we thought about the bridge is when we go from ‘15 to ‘16 we’ll get incremental restructuring savings, as a V we earned $1 billion of restructuring savings in ‘15, we think we’ll be better there in ‘16. But it won’t be $1 billion better than it was in 2015. We’ll get margin expansion and organic growth of 2% to 4% and the only decrement if you will as you describe it is we are overcoming the launch cost and the launch margins associated with the LEAP and the H, the wind turbines et cetera, et cetera. So we will grow our profit next year. I don’t have the bridge exactly in front of me at the moment.
Jeff Immelt:
But Segment-by-segment power is up ex-Alstom.
Jeff Bornstein:
Right.
Jeff Immelt:
Renewable is up ex-Alstom, aviation up, healthcare up, transportation I think we said down slightly, energy management up. So segment-by-segment Jeff I think attracts the positive operating profit growth for next year.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Okay. Roughly $19 billion is a good place to be though on the segment side?
Jeff Immelt:
Yeah.
Jeff Bornstein:
Yeah, $19 billion -- it’s roughly 19 billion.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Okay, great.
Jeff Bornstein:
Little better than $19 billion. Yeah.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then just back to kind of the macro can you give us a little bit of sense on how much of your backlog is in Middle Eastern areas or kind of areas where you’ve got really resource pressures on government budgets and the like?
Jeff Bornstein:
I think the -- let me just. I don’t have a regional split on backlog, now obviously our power business, obviously from power generation perspective has got a big backlog associated with the Middle East, our oil and gas business as a backlog that’s associated with West Africa, Brazil and the Middle East. We have a big backlog in aviation associated with it. Emirates, Qatar Airlines, et cetera. I don’t think in the case of power or aviation that we have concerns about our Middle East backlog in any way...
Jeff Immelt:
Yeah, I was going to reflect on that to a certain extent I think Jeff we’ve always talked about the resource rich regions being more or less $30 billion or something like that for the company. But in the fourth quarter we had a record orders quarter in Saudi Arabia. Our business in Latin America has -- because again demand for electricity has grown 8% last year, good aviation backlogs things like that. So I think the diversification of the mix of businesses we have is still pretty positive even in regions like Saudi Arabia.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Right. And then maybe just one last one. The order price index info was helpful, I wonder if you could share what us kind of the price impact on revenues in the quarter?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yeah. So in revenues in the quarter we had price of about $150 million, about $100 million of that came from power aviation was strong as well and then as you would expect healthcare had negative price of roughly $100 million. Most everybody had modest positive price.
Operator:
The next question is from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey. Just had a couple of clean up questions here, just to go back to the appliances deal, we’ve gotten a lot of questions about this that the deal you struck with higher, significantly more favorable than Electrolux gain of $0.20 versus $0.06. How do the deal all come together, I know they are now directly comparable. But just give us a sense on how it played out?
Jeff Immelt:
Again Deane I think we were we follow the process for Electrolux until December 7th. So that kind of ran its course, that gave us the ability to kind of look to see what other outcomes would be important for the business. There was a tremendous -- after December 7th, there was a tremendous amount of interest in the business. I think which we have to keep in mind is that the EBITDA of the business is better over the -- while we were in the process. The multiples in the industry improved while we’re in the process. And I think what we always knew was true about the appliance business is that it had a favorable position in the North American market that was valued by people on the outside and that’s what we saw in the 30 days kind of post for December 7th. I would add Deane we wanted to move quickly because the business have been for sale for two years and it’s just there was a real reason for us to kind of get this transaction and we’re pleased with the way it turned out.
Deane Dray:
Yeah congratulations on that. And just a last question from me, I know you’re out of the quarterly guidance business, but given the expectations of the higher restructuring and they won’t be time with gains. What is the first quarter dynamics look like with regard to gains in restructuring?
Jeff Bornstein:
So today we think we’re going to have about $700 million of restructuring in the first quarter. We’ll have some very modest gains in the first quarter. So we’ll have naked restructuring in the quarter of between $600 million and $700 million pre-tax in the quarter. And do you want me to give full first quarter. So here is when I’d say is when you look at the profile for the year when we talked about gas turbines and power systems. I mentioned the back that a lot of our volumes was in the second half of the year. The first quarter in power business we’re going to be down significantly on gas turbines. Last year we had the tail-end of Algeria and we have some Egyptian shipments in first quarter. So even though we’re going to be up on shipments year-over-year for the total year for power systems the first quarter is going to be light on gas turbines year-over-year.
Operator:
The next question is from Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Good morning. Hey Jeff maybe a little more on the core margin expansion in the power business the 140 basis points, I mean you’ve talked about positive value gap and mix. What -- maybe a little more color there what’s really driving that?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yeah a big part of it is the strength in their service businesses, TGS was very strong in the quarter that was important. We also shipped fewer gas turbines year-over-year in the quarter from a mix perspective that certainly helped them expand margins in the quarter the 140 basis points. So the value gap was really strong.
Jeff Immelt:
I mean just some context here guys. Our organic growth for the total company in the fourth quarter of ‘14 was up 9% organic growth for power was up 20% or something in the fourth quarter of last year. And that was a lot of the Algerian shipments that we had that were product shipments in ‘14. So kind of to Jeff’s point we had let’s say much more difficult comps from a revenue standpoint, but much easier comps from a margin standpoint when you compare fourth quarter of ‘15 to fourth quarter of ‘14.
Shannon O'Callaghan :
Okay. Yeah that makes a lot of sense. And then just on corporate cost I mean got some benefits there in the quarter I know it’s an initiative you’re working on. I mean are we kind of at a reasonable run rate now or is there a lot more to go there in ‘16?
Jeff Immelt:
No we’re going to be down in ‘16. So we finished the year with $2.1 billion of corporate operating cost. We gave you a range of $2.0 billion to $2.2 billion. We’re running the place to the bottom of that range. And no we’re not close to the end of what we’re doing around corporate.
Operator:
The next question is from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Jeff Immelt:
Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks, good morning guys. Again a little delay [ph] here so I’ll keep this brief. So just on back on the restructuring obviously a huge number for this year, Jeff. Should we -- you’ve got $0.08 in the next year 2017 for Alstom restructuring. Should we assume that the bulk of that $0.08 comes into this year?
Jeff Bornstein:
We I don’t think it will be the bulk of it. We’re going to try and move as much of the restructuring into ‘16 as we can. All of that restructuring you don’t just write a check and then get the benefits it’s actually all kinds of execution around it. So we’re going to try to execute as much of the restructuring list actions if you will that we’re planned there is a 17 actions we’re going to try to do as many of those in ‘16 on top of what we already planned as possible.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, that’s helpful.
Jeff Immelt:
I’ll add Nigel with this about of restructuring this year; we’re going to get some benefits yet this year. The book when we’re going to come in ‘17 but we’ll still get some restructuring actual benefits in ‘16 just based on the quality of projects we’ve got.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, that’s helpful. And then just quickly on the -- you gave a little bit color on 1Q and obviously 4Q is noisy with some of the project delays and Alstom accountings I am just thinking on 1Q do you still see the scope for some backlog push out into the back half of the year and to what extent that we still have some of these accounting issues on Alstom in 1Q?
Jeff Immelt:
We are going to continue -- we are not done purchase accounting. So we from an accounting perspective we’ve own the company for two months. So we’ve done a significant amount of work getting the initial purchase accounting done, but we are not complete yet. And that really I’m hopeful that will be done with all of that in the first half of this year. And I think in terms of how our volumes lays out I mean we’re a little more back end loaded this year maybe than we were last year just away the order book wants to play out. But I would say to a certain extent guys things like just the change in PTC probably pushed some wind turbines from ‘15 to ‘16, that’s unforecastable, but it’s generally a positive. So again I think by and large we feel pretty good about how our backlog lays out and the integrity of the backlog. Again we are not [indiscernible] about the oil and gas market and kind of -- we need to be fast on our feet as it pertains to how that business rolls out the rest of the year.
Matt Cribbins :
Great, thank you, Jeff. Couple of quick announcements before we wrap up. The replay of today’s webcast will be available this afternoon on our investor website. We are going to host healthcare investor meeting in New York City on March 11th and our first quarter 2016 earnings webcast will be on April 22nd. Jeff?
A - Jeff Immelt:
Yeah, Matt thanks. Again thanks again guys I think it was given the first time we closed Alstom. This was more complicated than we like again that will get better as time goes on. So it took us a long time to work through it. But I think if you stand back and look at ‘16 we’ve got a lot of self help in place with restructuring, big backlog, our share repurchase and we feel good about double-digit earnings growth, about returning a lot of cash back to investors and about really continuing to drive our strategy into the future. So we feel great about the company and we look forward to having more conversations. Great Matt, thanks.
Operator:
This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matt Cribbins – Vice President-Investor Communications Jeff Immelt – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Keith Sherin – Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer-GE Capital Jeff Bornstein – Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Scott Davis – Barclays Deane Dray – RBC Capital Markets Steven Winoker – Bernstein Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley Shannon OCallaghan – UBS Julian Mitchell – Credit Suisse Joe Ritchie – Goldman Sachs Christopher Glynn – Oppenheimer Robert McCarthy – Stifel Jeffrey Sprague – Vertical Research
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Ellen and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matt Cribbins:
Thank you. Good morning and welcome to our third quarter earnings webcast. We issued the press release, presentation, and supplemental earlier this morning on our website at www.ge.com/investor. As always, elements of this presentation are forward looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change as the world changes. For today’s webcast, we have Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; Vice Chairman and CEO of GE Capital, Keith Sherin; and our CFO, Jeff Bornstein. Now, I’ll turn it over to Jeff Immelt.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks, Matt, and good morning everyone. The GE team had a good quarter and a slow growth in volatile environment. Organic performance was strong, and industrial revenue growth was up 4%, profit was up 9%, year-to-date industrial CFOA is up 23%, and industrial segment margins were up 100 basis points. Let me make a few comments on we’re seeing our markets more broadly. The U.S. is still okay and Europe is appreciably better. Meanwhile, growth markets are facing some headwinds in resource pricing and currency. Nonetheless, we’re positioned to win some big fourth quarter deals in these markets in locomotives and power, aviation, and power conversion, which should support our growth objectives; and service provides a great buffer in times of uncertainty. We made substantial progress on GE’s portfolio transformation in the quarter. Alstom has been approved by the European Commission and we expect this to close soon. The Fed has approved the Synchrony separation, and we expect to commence the share exchange next week. The net effect of this should be to return about $20 billion to investors in the form of share reduction. Our GE Capital portfolio sales are ahead of plan; and with the Wells announcement, we now expect 2015 signings of $140 billion to $150 billion. And we believe this will facilitate an incremental dividend from GE Capital of $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter or $3 billion for the year. So if you look at our execution, we’re tracking to meet or beat all of our critical goals. We’re reconfirming our earnings outlook that we gave in the second quarter, when we boosted the low end of our range. And our CFOA and cash return to investors will be at the high-end of our framework. So Keith and I will now take you through a deeper dive on the portfolio moves. For Alstom, all the major regulators have now approved GE’s purchase of Alstom with remedies. We’re comfortable with the outcome as the economic and strategic impact of the deal remains intact. We will divest to Ansaldo the GT26 new units, and the GT36 technology, and 34 of 720 service contracts in the installed base. We will retain the ability to do service for competitive units through PSM. Financially, we still expect to achieve $3 billion of synergies with $0.05 to $0.08 of earnings accretion in 2016 and $0.15 to $0.20 by 2018. Alstom grows GE’s installed base by 50%. In addition, they will substantially improve our position in renewables and grid. Alstom will achieve a strong return for investors and we will give you more operating details on Alstom at a special meeting we plan to hold in late November. Now over to Keith to give you an update on the GE Capital portfolio moves.
Keith Sherin:
Thanks Jeff and good morning everyone. As Jeff mentioned, we have received formal approval from the Federal Reserve to move forward with the split off of Synchrony Financial as a standalone company. This is the final step in a project which we started two years ago and is a key component in the transformation of GE Capital. We can’t talk about the specific financial terms of this exchange until we launch. However to provide some context on the left side of the page, we show the timeline and mechanics for the exchange. We plan to launch the split exchange next week subject to market conditions. The offer period remains open for 20 business days from the time of launch. And at launch, we’re going to set the offer terms for the exchange, meaning the split discount that holders will receive on Synchrony stock when they exchange their GE shares plus the exchange cap ratio, which is the maximum discount between GE and Synchrony shares set at the time of the launch. The pricing for the split exchange will happen on days 16 to 18, and the offer closes on day 20, which would occur the week of November 16. Based on precedents from other exchanges that have taken place and the current stock prices of GE and Synchrony, we anticipate to receive proceeds of between $18 billion and $21 billion, which translate to a buyback of 650 million to 750 million shares in GE. The range in outcomes is determined by the split discount, the exchange ratio, and the movement of GE and Synchrony shares prior to and during the exchange up to pricing. We anticipate that we’ll record a gain in GE Capital in discontinued operations and that gain, the size of which is dependent on the final split discount will be embedded in the proceeds for the buyback, so we’ll not have any impact on GECC Capital ratios. I really like to thank Margaret Keane and her team for the terrific work they’ve done to position Synchrony for this separation. In the next 30.days, we plan to retire 6% to 7% of GE shares. Next, I’ll give you an update on our progress executing the plan that we announced on April 10th. On the top left of this chart is an update on the portfolio sales. We are ahead of plan. And in the first six months since the announcement, we’ve signed deals on $126 billion worth of ENI. Since 2Q, we’ve signed $58 billion worth of transactions, the largest being the $30 billion sale of our distribution finance, vendor finance, and direct lending businesses to Wells Fargo, which we announced earlier this week. We gave previous guidance that we would sign $120 billion to $150 billion of deals by year-end, and we’re now raising the low end of that range to $140 billion given the progress we’ve made. We have closed $60 billion of sales to date, and we’re on track to close $100 billion by year-end. On the bottom left, you can see our current view versus the goals that we established back on April 10. We’re ahead of plan on asset sales and we expect to largely be done with our exits by year-end 2016 instead of 2017. Overall, we’re on track to deliver the $35 billion of capital back to the parent. You can see on the top right that our pricing to date on the $126 billion is slightly ahead of plan at 1.4 times price to tangible book. And the deal that we announced with Wells earlier this week was also at approximately 1.4 times price to tangible book. As a result of the accelerated sales, we are giving up some of the future income from the total plan. But overall, with our asset and liability management actions, including the debt exchange that we completed, our current estimate of capital to be returned is still $35 billion. In terms of timing of dividends, as we close sales transactions in the fourth quarter, we expect our Tier 1 common ratio to exceed 14%, and we plan to pay a dividend of approximately $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter subject to our governance process. That would result in $3 billion for 2015, which is $2 billion higher than the original plan. In addition, we’re on track for $18 billion of dividends that we previously said would come in 2016. Our goal is to apply for SIFI de-designation, which based on our view of transaction closings, our target is to file in the first quarter of 2016. If you combine the Synchrony split with the 2015 transaction closings, we expect to end 2015 with around $175 billion of ENI around $200 billion lower than year end 2014. I really like to thank the GE Capital employees who have accomplished a lot in the last six months, and the team is focused on substantially completing the business exits by the end of 2016. Let me turn it back to Jeff.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks, Keith. And now I’ll briefly go through GE’s industrial operations. Year-to-date orders are down 4% organically. We faced some tough comps in orders compared to third quarter 2014, when total orders grew by 22%, and equipment orders grew by 31%. Organically, developed markets are up 18% year-to-date with growth markets down 7% excluding a large one-time GE9X order. Our year-to-date orders in China are up 1%. Service grew by 6% organically, and our progress was broad-based. PowerGen services grew by 10%, aviation spares grew by 28%, and healthcare was up by 4% organically. Power and water, energy management, and healthcare orders were up 9% organically. However, aviation and transportation has significant one-time orders placed in the third quarter of 2014 with GE9X and Tier 4. These two products alone had $6 billion of orders in the third quarter of 2014. Oil and gas orders reflect the impact of industry dynamics. Our organic orders decline was 32% and is not unexpected. We continue to compete well in the market and have not seen cancellations. Importantly, there are substantial equipment orders where we’ve been selected technically, but they have been delayed. So we’re confident in our market position. Across the company, we have a strong funnel of orders for the fourth quarter and we expect our orders performance to improve. On execution, the GE team executed very well in the quarter. Organic revenue growth was up 4% with six of seven segments up. Our relative position both in product and geographic diversity has never been stronger. Globally, revenue in the U.S. was up 5%, and Europe organic growth was up substantially, while growth markets declined by 7%. Year-to-date revenue was positive in ASEAN, China, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Middle East and North Africa. Meanwhile, reasons like Russia, Canada, and Australia have been hard hit by natural resource dynamics. Services were up 8% organically. Growth for software and analytics was up 16%, gaining momentum from our digital investments. At minds and machines, we launched Predix, and now have more than 20,000 developers. We’re expanding partnerships with important customers like Boeing, Exelon, and BP. Service growth was broad-based with power up 9%, aviation up 17%, transportation up 10%, and healthcare up 3% organically. We’re winning with new products. The H-Turbine has 67 technical selections with 21 in backlog. Power conversion revenue grew by 15% behind multiple new product launches. Our aviation engines are achieving market leadership by meeting customer commitments with superior execution. We now have 10,000 LEAP engines in backlog. Life sciences had 8% organic growth in the quarter. And we have two important wins for bioprocess manufacturing in China. We launched Current as a way to capitalize on 72% LED growth and the opportunity to build a strong presence in the C&I energy efficiency space. Margins continue to be a great GE story. Segment op margins grew 100 basis points with growth in gross margins of 80 basis points and we’ve expanded our value gap by $300 million year-to-date and expect this to continue. Our product margins are expanding, and the analytics continue to drive productivity and services. Restructuring is delivering substantial benefits and, in all, we think our margins can continue to grow. This is our tenth straight quarter of margin expansion, so we have real momentum. I would like to highlight the work of our oil and gas team as a good example of our execution. In a tough environment with organic revenue declining by 7%, they grew margins by 100 basis points organically and held earnings. This will position them well in a volatile industry. Now cash is also a good story for the year. Industrial CFOA is up 23% year-to-date. Industrial free cash flow is up 53%, and as is typical we expect a strong fourth quarter where we expect a $2 billion reduction in working capital similar to last year. The great portfolio execution mentioned by Keith will allow for upside in our cash performance. Based on accelerated progress in capital asset sales, we should be able to dividend an additional $2.5 billion to the parent in the fourth quarter, and this would be $3 billion for the year. This will put the company at the high end of our CFOA range. In an effective Synchrony execution should return about $20 billion to investors through a share exchange. And this will put us about $30 billion of cash returned to investors for the year through dividend and buyback. We still expect appliances to close in the quarter. This is not a complicated transaction. Appliances is a highly competitive industry with at least seven manufacturers and 21 brands. Electrolux wants to close and is working hard to do so. So the GE balance sheet is very strong and we will finish the year with substantial liquidity. And now over to Jeff to go through operations.
Jeff Bornstein:
Great, thanks Jeff. I’ll start with the third quarter summary. We had revenues of $31.7 billion, which were down 1% in the quarter. Industrial revenues including corporate were down 2% to $25.8 billion. Industrial operating plus verticals EPS was $0.29, up 16% year-over-year, with industrial up 9%, and the verticals up 50%. Operating EPS number of $0.32 adds in other continuing GE Capital activity including the consumer segment, headquarter run-off and other exit related items, which I’ll cover in more detail on the GE Capital page. Continuing EPS of $0.28 includes the impact of non-operating pension, and net EPS $0.25 includes the impact of discontinued operations. The total disc ops impact for the quarter was a negative $347 million, which included $1 billion of exit related non-cash charges. These charges are within the framework of $23 billion exit impact that we communicated in April. Partly offsetting the charge was income associated with operations in CLL and real estate, which will move to disc ops earlier in the year. As Jeff said, we generated $6.5 billion of CFOA year-to-date, which was down 9% driven by lower GE Capital dividends. However, industrial CFOA was $6.1 billion year-to-date, up 23%. The GE tax rate was 17%, bringing the year-to-date rate to 20%, which is in line with our current estimate for the total year rate. The GE Capital reported rate was a negative 6% in the quarter, which includes tax benefits associated with the plan to shrink GE Capital. The vertical tax rate was 0%. As we communicated previously, as we complete the GE Capital restructuring, we expect the verticals tax rate to be low double-digits. On the right side, you can see the segment results. Industrial segment revenues were down 1% on a reported basis, but up 4% organically, reflecting about 5 points of headwind from foreign exchange. Foreign exchange was $1.2 billion drag on industrial segment revenue and $165 million impact on industrial segment op profit. Despite this headwind, industrial segment operating profit was up 5%, and organically the industrial segments were up 9%. GE Capital Vertical earnings of $351 million in the quarter were up 55%. Next I’ll go through the earnings walk. Consistent with last quarter we included a walk of the different elements of our earnings so that the dynamics are clear, given all the moving pieces with GE Capital. Starting with the first column on the left and working down, industrial operating net income was $2.6 billion and vertical income was $351 million for a total industrial plus verticals operating earnings up $2.9 billion. The GE Capital consumer segment earned $795 million during the quarter, which I’ll cover later. On the other GE Capital line, we incurred $411 million of cost, driven by exit related tax and restructuring charges, headquarter run-off, operating expenses, and excess interest. As a result, total operating earnings were $3.3 billion. Including non-operating pension costs, continuing earnings were $2.9 billion. Discontinued operations were a charge of $347 million, which I discussed on the previous page. Adjusting for these items, net earnings for the quarter were $2.5 billion. In the center and far right columns, you can see the associated EPS numbers and the variance versus prior year. Next page, on one-times, we had $0.02 of charges related to ongoing industrial restructuring and other items as we continue to drive the cost competitiveness of the company. Charges were $346 million on a pre-tax basis, and $244 million after-tax. About 45% of those charges related to restructuring in our oil and gas business, as we continue to execute on our cost-out program. We had no industrial gains in the quarter. On the bottom of the page, you can see the fourth quarter estimate. We’re expecting gains from appliances signaling and embedded systems transactions in the quarter. For the year, we continue to expect gains in restructuring to be balanced on an EPS basis. We’ve increased our expected restructuring from $0.11 to about $0.14 due to the higher gains we expect for the year. We have additional attractive restructuring opportunities including Alstom, which will offset the higher gains. Now, I’ll go through each of the segments, starting with power and water. Orders in the quarters were up 8% and up 13% organically. Equipment orders were up 7% to $3.5 billion on strength in distributed power higher by 61%, renewables up 2% partly offset by thermal down 6%. Distributed power was higher driven by two fast track power deals in Indonesia and Ghana, and our first order for six LM6000 PF+ units in Thailand. The new LM6000 PF+ attains 56 combined-cycle efficiencies, which is the highest in its class. It takes half the time to install versus its predecessor and can startup to full power in about 10 minutes. Renewables orders were up 2%, up 14% excluding FX on strong international orders. Unit volumes were lower at 821 versus 839 a year ago, but megawatts were up 9%. Thermal orders were down 6%, down 2% in ex-FX. We took orders for 22 gas turbines versus 23 last year. The business booked 4 H orders in the quarter
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks, Jeff. Just to conclude, we have a few updates on the operating framework. We’ve kept the Industrial EPS expectations of $1.13 to $1.20. If Appliances close, we will be closer to the high end of this range; and our execution on our organic growth, margins, and corporate costs remain strong. We expect the GE Capital Verticals to be at least $0.50, with more strength in GECAS. Capital asset sales should be at least $100 billion, with more coming in the first quarter. CFOA should be about $16 billion. And free cash flows plus divestitures would be about $15 billion assuming that Appliances closes. And we expect to return $30 billion to investors, about, reflecting the impact of Synchrony. GE is executing on its investor commitments and is on track for its 2015 goals. Our portfolio transformation is happening at an unprecedented pace. We have a focused infrastructure business with leading positions in our markets, and we’re positioned to grow faster than our competitors, with a strong dividend. We’re growing operating and gross profit margins and making Corporate smaller. We have nearly a $200 billion backlog of services that positions the Company well for any cycle, and we’re transforming GE into the world’s premier digital industrial company, in a unique position to drive outcomes for customers and grow margins. I’d like to take a moment to acknowledge the work of the GE team. Last quarter we completed our largest Industrial acquisition, completely repositioned GE Capital, and launched one of the largest-ever IPOs. At the same time, we’re winning in the market and delivering strong financial results. I’m very proud of their work. Now, Matt, back to you for questions.
Matt Cribbins:
Thanks, Jeff. Lots to talk about. Let’s open the lines up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning, guys. Is there a sense, Jeff – and either Jeff I guess. But Jeff Immelt, is there a sense with the fall-off you’ve seen in orders that there is any risk we are entering a bit of an industrial recession, particularly as it relates to growth markets?
Jeff Immelt:
So, you know, Scott, what I would say, kind of going around the world, is U.S. gets a little bit better every day. Europe is appreciably better. Meanwhile, growth markets are highly differentiated in terms of their performance and have some headwinds as it pertains to oil prices and things like that. On balance, Scott, we see as much activity as we’ve ever seen. The quoting activity, the deal activity, things like that, is still quite robust. Business for us in China is still pretty good, which is a big market. And so we still see a fair amount of opportunities out there, even amongst the volatility. So, I really believe that we can still accomplish our long-term goals in the world we see today. And then I would just remind you that we’ve got $200 billion backlog of services; it’s 70% or 80% of our earnings. It’s growing organically 8%. So we’ve got a pretty robust underpinning of the total Company as we go forward. But the quote activity is as robust today as it was six months ago or a year ago.
Scott Davis:
Okay. That’s helpful. And then it’s a little bit of a strange question, but those of us who have followed you guys for a long time have seen, I think, a higher sense of urgency or at least an execution level that’s been pretty high in the last year or so. Like you said, in the last six quarters you have beaten your margin targets or so. What do you attribute? I mean you had a big change in compensation structure that kicked in, in January. I mean, are we seeing just the benefit of past investments kind of pulling through? And how do you think about at least, how do you attribute really this higher level of execution and how GE is different today maybe than it was just three years ago?
Jeff Immelt:
So I would say, Scott, I would say again – great team. The compensation plan clearly helps. I think we made the investments three or four or five years ago that are helping us today in product lines and globalization and things like that. I mean, we don’t – we have as robust of an NPI pipeline as we’ve ever had, and we’re not dependent on any one country. We’ve got a very diversified country mix. That’s some of the stuff that John Rice had done. The last thing I would say, Scott, is look, there’s no way to describe what it feels like to run GE where the team knows exactly what it has to do over the next three years. I mean our plan – we can’t guarantee exactly what the macro environment’s going to be. But between the GE Capital actions, buying back stock, organic growth, integrating Alstom, you’ve got a leadership team that knows precisely what we need to do for investors over the next three years. And that is a place we haven’t been in certainly since the financial crisis. That I think just helps everybody. It helps people who own the stock, and it gives the leadership team, I think, extra momentum as we go forward.
Operator:
The next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey, I had been thinking it might be too early to ask about some specifics for your Oil & Gas outlook for 2016, but you did just disclose the cost-out plan and the increase to cumulative to $1 billion there. So hopefully you can share some of your assumptions, maybe getting as granular as revenues and op profit for Oil & Gas next year.
Jeff Immelt:
So, you know, Deane, I would say in that it’s a market that is so visible and volatile, I think I’d start by reflecting a little bit on what we’ve done this year. The team I think in a very tough environment has gotten after the costs, has executed in the market, has driven services. So I think you’d say, if you reflect back on where we were in the fourth quarter last year and then where we sit today, I think our Oil & Gas team has done a fantastic job as it pertains to this year. And then I think if we look forward and just – we don’t assume that the market gets appreciably better. We would say that revenue might be down 10% to 15% next year and that operating profit might be down 10% to 15% next year, and that we hold margins in a tougher environment. And that’s – I think that’s the kind of feel that we have. And again, we still want to go through and do all of our normal fourth quarter planning on the company, but I just think it’s important to investors to have some visibility in terms of how we think about Oil & Gas and triangulating backlog and things like that.
Deane Dray:
And just to clarify that 10% to 15%, that’s an organic number?
Jeff Immelt:
Yes, right…
Deane Dray:
All right.
Jeff Immelt:
Yes, yes.
Deane Dray:
Good. And then related to Oil & Gas, and you mentioned going back to the fourth quarter when oil was really still in a freefall – at the Outlook Meeting, Jeff, you said you could be opportunistic in looking at assets in Oil & Gas. And would love to hear what your thinking is today. Is there any size parameters that you can share?
Jeff Immelt:
Look, guys, we still like this industry. I would go back, Deane and – look, we never, as we built our portfolio in Oil & Gas, we never thought about it reflecting $120 for oil or anything else. Our investment is really made along the lines of – we felt like the industry was going to be growing in technical intensity, customer solutions, that over time the Oil & Gas business would look a lot like our Aviation business or our Power business or things like that, and that’s what led to the investments. So we’re a long-term player in Oil & Gas. We like the industry. We’re committed to the industry. I think as we look at opportunities and where we are today, anything would have to hurdle above buying back our own shares. And so we’ll be opportunistic, we’ll be disciplined, and we have an alternative that we think is still quite attractive for us of buying back our own shares.
Deane Dray:
Good, that’s helpful. And just last question from me is one of the moving parts in the 2015 framework that is outside of your control is the timing, the assumption of the close of Appliances. That’s really – that’s in the hands of Electrolux; it’s in the hands of the regulators. So could you just remind us what that P&L impact would be if that close gets pushed into 2016?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes, Deane. So you’ll recall we talked about something that looked like a $0.06 a share gain associated with Appliances. So if it got pushed out of the year, we’d probably rethink a little bit about what we’re doing on restructuring in the fourth quarter; we would consolidate a full quarter of Appliance earnings, which would be a bit of an offset. And more likely than not, that would probably entail a breakup fee. So we still think we’re well within the range of $1.13 to $1.20. But probably that would push us to the bottom end of that range versus being at the top. So we’ve thought through that, and we’ve also thought through it in terms of cash. I think we’re fine. We’re closing on Alstom and doing everything we need to do around cash flow even without closing Appliances.
Jeff Immelt:
I think, Deane, the base assumption is still that we close this deal. I think Jeff’s given you – I think it’s always good to scenario-plan; but the base assumption still is that we finish. I don’t see any reason why we shouldn’t. But to your point, it’s not completely under our control.
Operator:
The next question is from Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks and good morning.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Steve.
Steven Winoker:
Hey, so since you started to talk about 2016 a little bit, I’m going to just push the envelope here. The way I’m looking at it anyways, if you hit that midpoint around $1.15 to $1.20 you talk about on 2015 EPS, it looks like $1.17, you’re telling us you’ve got $0.10 from Synchrony; you’ve got something like based on the GECC buyback, $0.06 to $0.08; you’ve got Alstom now, you’re talking about I think $0.06 minimum. So, without assuming any other growth from your Industrial business, that’s up like more than $0.20 there. Then GECC, I’m not sure what you guys are thinking for that, but we’re certainly starting to get into that well north comfortable of $1.50, especially if you could hold Oil & Gas flat. Is that – am I thinking about this in the right way?
Jeff Immelt:
Well, what I would say, certainly the pieces you’re putting together, Steve, kind of hang together, right? I would say Oil & Gas is going to be down next year; that’s got to be the working assumption. I think the focus Jeff and I are going to have is to try to offset that with lower Corporate as we think about next year; so we want to run Corporate lower. And then I would say, look, we’re going to give you guys a full estimate on all the other pieces of our Industrial outlook in December. But, look, we’ve got strong services, strong services growth, big backlogs. And we’re going to win some nice orders in the fourth quarter and I just – I feel like we’re going to look pretty good next year in the world we see today. So, Jeff, do you want to add…
Jeff Bornstein:
No, I just – I think you got it exactly right. I don’t think you can start with the premise of oil and gas flat. Having said that, Alstom is going to contribute, EPS accretion is going to contribute, no question about it, lower corporate. We expect to be better operationally in the segments, and we expect EPS is going to grow double-digits next year for sure.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks, good morning. Just…
Jeff Bornstein:
Hi, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Hi, Jeff. I just wanted to dig into 4Q and obviously the orders primarily a function of the tough prior comp. The back – the equivalent backlog is pretty flat with where it was in 3Q. So I am wondering if you could just maybe put a finer point on organic into 4Q. You’re running at 4% year-to-date. I’m wondering how you view organic into 4Q?
Jeff Bornstein:
Well, we’ve got quite a range here on our expectation for fourth quarter orders. But generally speaking, we expect them the comp much better than what you saw in the third quarter, both headline and organically. So we’ve got some big orders in transportation, some big orders in power and water, we’re looking to deliver in the fourth quarter. We expect aviation to be slightly better. So we think sequentially the fourth quarter is going to look much better than the third quarter for sure.
Nigel Coe:
Wait, are we talking revenue orders, Nigel?
Jeff Bornstein:
Orders, Nigel. Because I think revenue in Q4 is going to look fairly comparable to what it’s been year-to-date, right.
Nigel Coe:
Yes.
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes.
Jeff Bornstein :
So we’ve been running, I think we’re at 4% organic revenue growth year-to-date. My hunch is that’s going to be pretty consistent with Q4.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shannon OCallaghan with UBS.
Shannon OCallaghan:
Good morning guys.
Jeff Bornstein:
Hi, Shannon.
Shannon OCallaghan:
Hi, so nice to see the higher GE Capital dividend for 2015. With the Wells deal and Synchrony now done, real estate ranged, is 14% Tier 1 still the right base to be using, given that all those things that are now sort of clearly on their way out? And how are the international consumer sales, are there any things that would make you still be using 14%?
Keith Sherin:
Shannon, this is Keith. I’d say that’s sort of the framework that we’ve agreed to with the regulatory oversight that we have, so I don’t see us changing that until we ultimately aren’t under that same framework. Right now, as you know, we ended the third quarter at 13.7%. I think with the asset sales in the fourth quarter will go up about 14%. We expect to dividend $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter, based on those asset sales and our governance process. And then we’re on track for what we said we do in 2016. But I wouldn’t – I don’t see that threshold really changing until you have a different regulatory environment. That’s why it’s so important for us to continue to shrink. That’s why it’s important for us to target applying to not be a SIFI in the first quarter. I think that’s going to take some time. And then when we get done it with that, we still have our international regulators. So I think you should assume that that’s a threshold for some period of time for us, and we need to continue to exit the businesses in a rapid pace and build the capital, so that we can distribute it back to the parent.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.
Jeff Bornstein:
Hey, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, thanks, just a quick question on healthcare. The profits ex-currency were up in Q2. They’re down mid single-digit Q3. And you talk about R&D being hiked in the slide; so maybe just given update on the cost progress in Healthcare, particularly given the volume outlook in emerging markets and the fact that pricing is still very challenging. I think you’d talked before about Healthcare profits growing this year. I think they’ll clearly be down; but maybe give us some look in terms of the cost base entering next year.
Jeff Immelt:
So I would say, first, just to echo part of your question, I think the developed world is better, so U.S. and Europe are getting better. The emerging markets are mixed for Healthcare, but more headwind than tailwind. What Jeff said in terms of really trying to convert our Healthcare IT business, and get it on Predix, and spend a little bit of incremental R&D on that side of the business, I think it’s something that we wanted to do this year to give us some momentum going into next year. And then I think the business has a whole series of variable-cost productivity and product cost-out programs that are going this year that have yet to bear fruit that I would expect to roll into next year. So I think – look I think the markets are challenging. We did some one-time investment this year, and it’s our expectation that the team can execute better going into – the rest of 2015 and going into 2016.
Jeff Bornstein:
All right, I’d just – I’ll give you a little color on the third quarter, since you asked it. Definitely price was a challenge in the quarter. We’re down 1.9 points of price. So we had the negative $100 million of value gap. That was definitely a challenge. But the business has actually got pretty good productivity. We were well over $100 million in total cost productivity in the quarter. And really what swung here was volume was a bit lighter than we thought it was going to be, largely emerging markets. And we had about $50 million incremental spend on R&D year-over-year to accelerate the programs we talked about, and that’s where the challenge came through.
Operator:
The next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Hey, so clearly there was an announcement recently that you guys have a new holder to your top 10 list. I was just wondering how those conversations are going and whether there are any new incremental portfolio or cost opportunities that have come from it.
Jeff Immelt:
Look, I would say, Joe, I think the white paper kind of lays out their thesis. And I think that’s – we don’t agree with everything, but it’s pretty consistent with what we’ve done and what we’re doing. And so I don’t think there would be much to add to that. I don’t know, Jeff, what would you?
Jeff Bornstein:
We are laser focused on margins and cost productivity, as we should be, reducing corporate costs. That all lines up with Trian’s white paper. And we’re about executing on orders and revenues so we can have that leverage fall through to earnings.
Jeff Immelt:
Industrial balance sheet pretty consistent with what we’ve said in the past and things like that, Joe.
Jeff Bornstein:
And that will be paced – the discussion around leverage will be paced by how quickly we get through the de-designation process in GE Capital.
Operator:
The next question is from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.
Christopher Glynn:
Thanks, good morning.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Chris.
Christopher Glynn:
Hey, just further to Julian’s questions on Healthcare, we’ve seen emerging markets become a much higher volume business over the past few years, and developing markets had a lot of regulatory dust settling here. So just wondering if there are any permanent evolutions or resets in the served markets there, where we, kind of, rethink what levels Healthcare performs at over the next five years?
Jeff Bornstein:
I don’t think so. Obviously, China has been a very strong growth market for Healthcare for quite a period of time. You’ve got to remember, 74% of orders and roughly revenues come from developed markets still. Even with all the emerging market growth we’ve had in Healthcare, we’re still about almost three-quarters from the U.S., Europe, Japan. So I don’t think there’s any change in the geographic footprint of where we think Healthcare is going or where the growth is going to come from. We’ve got some particular markets that are challenging based on commodities, FX, or politics; think about Russia, the Middle East. Places like Iraq are very, very tough to comp year-over-year. We actually feel a little bit better that China is stabilizing a little bit for Healthcare. The performance this quarter sequentially was better, and we think the tendering process is ultimately going to pick back up. When you think about China, the underlying fundamentals haven’t changed. There is still 1.5 billion people. They’re still building hospitals. The private market in China has grown 15% to 20% a quarter. It’s the slowdown in the public tender as part of the campaign the government’s been running there has put some slowness into what we’ve seen in terms of order. But I don’t think there’s much of a change in footprint here on a go-forward basis, and we’re still three quarters developed market driven.
Operator:
The next question is from Robert McCarthy with Stifel.
Robert McCarthy:
Good morning, everyone.
Jeff Immelt:
Hi, Rob.
Robert McCarthy:
Hi, how are you doing?
Jeff Immelt:
Good.
Robert McCarthy:
I wanted to ask a question just about if we’re heading into an industrial recession here – and you may disagree with that premise. Could you just talk a little bit about the prospect for combating deflation? Because if we’re in a deflationary environment and we have a kind of a multiyear down-cycle where we’re kind of looking for a bottom in terms of volumes and cutting price, I mean isn’t the portfolio actually set up for that, just given the installed base of equipment and the service streams you have? Maybe you could just comment on that a little bit.
Jeff Immelt:
So, Rob, again, I come back and just – U.S. a little bit better everyday. Europe stable to up; and then emerging markets volatile. Right? So I think that’s – revenue passenger miles on aviation still positive. Demand, I would say if you are in the gas and wind business and power, more positive than negative, right? Oil and gas tough for sure. U.S. market in healthcare growing better, slower in emerging markets. In other words, the first thing I would say is, the picture is a slow growth and volatility picture. And I think there is still pockets of growth out there pretty universally. And then I would say, look, the fact that we’re big installed base, recurring revenue model, margin efficient, capital efficient, I think that’s a positive for GE in this cycle. And then our value gap continues to run positive, right. So the ability of us to kind of source well on the marketplace is a tailwind, not a headwind.
Jeff Bornstein:
I would just add, the fact we have a $270 billion backlog is very, very important in that kind of environment. $200 billion of that in the service space, right? So from a price perspective, that’s quite important. We are all about product and service costs. So to maintain our profitability and grow it and, to be competitive, we have got to drive it to the same dollars of deflation that you are suggesting. So we are laser focused on this. The product and service cost competitively as just as important as the actual technology we’re selling. So we are on top of this.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question. Hey, just a couple cash and liquidity related questions. First, on the Capital side, if stuff is going a little bit richer than you thought, why not upside to the $35 billion of Capital return over the program? And then just on the Industrial side, if you kind of work through the pieces, you’re kind of guiding 80% free cash flow conversion on Industrial. If we start with CFOA and take out GE Capital dividend and account for CapEx it’s kind of an 80% conversion ratio. Is there anything going on this year that kind of is conspiring negatively to that number? Should we see higher conversion into next year? Maybe you could just kind a walk us through those dynamics.
Keith Sherin:
Hey, Jeff. This is Keith. I’ll just cover a little bit on the $35 billion. As we said, we do have a little bit of price that we’re getting, price to tangible book, so ahead of what our plan was by a bit. And that’s been offset by the fact that we’re selling faster. We tried to say that on the page by – a lot of those transactions were estimated to be later in 2016 and into 2017, and by selling them early, we’re forgoing that future income. On the other hand, in total, we’re expecting about 1.1 times price to tangible book. We’re a little ahead. You can see the U.S. assets that we’ve sold mostly so far, are selling at 1.4 times price to tangible book. A little ahead of what we thought 1.3. And then the rest of the assets, we think if we’ve got them priced right overall will be just a little ahead of 1.1 times for the total $200 billion of sales. So I think we’re right on the $35 billion and we feel pretty good about it.
Keith Sherin:
Yes. Excuse me. On CFOA for the year, we think our cash conversion ratio on CFOA and free cash flow for the year is going to be closer to 84%, 85%, not 80%. So we actually think we’re going to have a decent performance on CFOA. We talked to you about a goal to get to 95% over the next two to three years, we are laser focused on that. I didn’t suggest at any point in time we were going to do that in 2015.
Matt Cribbins:
Great. Jeff, a couple quick announcements before you wrap up. The replay of today’s webcast will be available this afternoon on our website. We’re going to hold our fourth quarter earnings webcast on Friday, January 22, and we’re going to hold our annual Outlook Meeting on Wednesday, December 16. Jeff?
Jeff Immelt:
So Matt, again I think a great execution quarter for the team. I just want to particularly congratulate all our GE Capital folks for great execution on the plan we laid out on April 10. And really we’re thrilled about Synchrony, the value, the company. We think this is going to be – the Synchrony transaction, is going to be a great transaction for GE investors and for Synchrony investors. So thanks, Matt. Everybody have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes our conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc. Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC Julian C. H. Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric second quarter 2015 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Jeanette, and I will be your conference coordinator today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Good morning and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. We issued the press release, presentation, and supplemental earlier this morning on our website at www.ge.com/investor. As always, elements of this presentation are forward looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. Please interpret them in that light. For today's webcast we have our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Jeff Bornstein. Now I'll turn it over to Jeff Immelt.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Matt. The team had a strong quarter in a slow growth and volatile environment. We're executing both organic growth and cost initiatives. Specifically, Industrial EPS grew by 18% and earnings at the combination of Industrial and the Capital Verticals, which is the way we think about GE going forward, grew by 19%. Organic growth and earnings performance was very strong. Orders were up 13%, revenue was up 5% and profit would have grown by 11% organically. Our operations were strong. Margins expanded by 70 basis points with gross margins up 60 basis points and Industrial CFOA grew by 79%. Our Oil & Gas business met expectations for the quarter for orders, revenue and profit. Organic profit was up 5%, and we continue to grow margins despite a tougher environment. We end the half with our goals on track. Meanwhile, we have a number of portfolio actions underway. GE Capital asset sales were robust, and we will achieve $100 billion of deals closed in 2015. We still expect the Synchrony split to take place by the end of this year. Appliances and Alstom are in the middle of regulatory reviews, but we still expect both deals to close by the end of the year. We remain committed to doing good deals for investors. In all, we're confident enough in our performance to raise the low end of our range for our Industrial guidance to $1.13 to $1.20 EPS. So overall, we had a very good quarter. Orders were very strong, up 8%, or 13% organically. We saw solid growth in both equipment and service. Orders pricing was up slightly, and we grew backlog to a record $272 billion. Power & Water was up 22%, behind strengthed power gen products and wind. We now have won 61 technical selections for the H turbine, up eight in the quarter. Oil & Gas has solid equipment orders in turbo machinery and downstream, consistent with expectations. Power conversion orders grew by 33% as we're winning big in renewable energy markets. Aviation had large orders growth in LEAP and GEnx, and meanwhile, spares' order rates grew by 33%. Healthcare HCS Equipment orders grew by 6% in the U.S. as that market continues to rebound. The U.S. was particularly strong, but we also saw growth in many parts of the world. The U.S. was up 10%, Europe up 4% and growth markets up 2%. First half Industrial Internet orders were $1.9 billion, up 83%, and we expect total software and solution orders for the year of $6 billion, up 30%. Service growth was robust at 7% ex-FX, and backlog reached $200 billion for the first time. Our strong backlog in orders position GE to achieve our long-term organic growth targets of 5%. Organic revenue was up 5%, growth was broad based with six of seven segments up. A real highlight was the $19 billion of commitments at the Paris Air Show. For the first half, U.S. revenue grew by 3%, and four of nine growth markets were up, and China grew by 12%. We had some excellent performances in service. Power gen service was up 9%, Aviation service was up 6%, and Transportation service was up 6%. We're gaining share in Healthcare with U.S. Healthcare HCS Equipment revenue growing 16%. We closed a big Healthcare deal in Kenya worth more than $200 million, and international locos grew by 128% with big wins in Brazil and South Africa. A few adjacencies were particularly strong. Wind grew by 49% and LEDs grew by 77%. And our Power Conversion business is innovating in solar and wind energy, recording $300 million in orders in those markets alone. We have a strong pipeline of products and services that are winning versus competition. And we're having success in software and analytics. We launched GE's Digital Wind Farm providing customers with up to 20% more capacity. We announced a major collaboration with BP for asset monitoring in oil and gas, and we closed another Class 1 railroad that we utilized GEs Movement Planner, in a deal worth more than $100 million. Margins expanded with 70 basis points of growth. Gross margins were up 60 basis points with strength in value gap and productivity. We're making progress broadly with five of seven segments having margin growth. Simplification continues to deliver results, and our SG&A targets are on track. First half margins are up 100 basis points, and service margins were particularly strong up 130 basis points year-to-date as the impact of our analytical tools are being felt. Equipment margins meanwhile were up 30 basis points year-to-date. So we're running the company well. Cash is a good story. Industrial CFOA is up 79% year-to-date, and free cash flow is up 54%. We did not receive a Capital dividend in the quarter, but we're hopeful to get an additional dividend to the parent in the year. As we've said, our asset sales are ahead of plan, and GE Capital has substantial strength to remain safe and secure. We expect to complete the Synchrony split by the end of 2015, and at the current stock price our share of Synchrony is worth about $24 billion. The balance sheet is very strong with $17 billion of cash at the parent, and our cash generation is on track for the year. And we remain committed to our capital allocation plans. Now, over to Jeff to review the businesses.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks, Jeff. I'll start with the second quarter summary. We had revenues of $32.8 billion, which were up 2% in the quarter. Industrial revenues including corporate were up 1% to $26.9 billion. You can see on the right that the Industrial segments were flat on revenue for the quarter, but up 5% organically. Industrial operating plus Verticals EPS was $0.31, which was up 19% year-over-year, that's driven by Industrial up 18%, and the Verticals up 25%. The operating EPS number of $0.28 adds another continuing GE Capital activity including the Consumer segment, headquarter run-off and other exit related items which I'll cover in more detail shortly. Continuing EPS of $0.24 includes the impact of non-operating pension, and net EPS of negative $0.13 includes the impact of discontinued operations. The total DiscOps impact in the quarter was negative $3.7 billion, which included a $4.3 billion non-cash charge related to moving the majority of our GE Capital CLL business to held for sale. We disclosed this earlier in the month. Partly offsetting the charge was income associated with CLL and real estate. This charge was included in the total $23 billion GE Capital estimated exit impact that we communicated in April, but earlier than we originally planned, based on accelerated sales activity. As Jeff said, we had a strong performance on cash, with CFOA for the half up $3.9 billion or 17%. Industrial CFOA was $3.5 billion at the half, which was up 79%. In the first quarter we had $450 million of GE Capital dividends, and we did not receive a dividend from GE Capital in the second quarter. The consolidated tax rate for the quarter was 27%. The GE rate was 21%, in line with guidance we provided. The GE Capital reported rate was 45% driven by tax charges associated with the exit plan, and the vertical tax rate in the quarter was 6%. On the right side, you can see the segment results. As I mentioned earlier, Industrial segment revenues were flat on a reported basis, but up 5% organically, reflecting 5 points of headwind from foreign exchange. Foreign exchange was $1.3 billion drag on Industrial segment revenue, and about a $215 million impact on Industrial segment's op profit. Despite this headwind, Industrial segment operating profit was up 5%, and organically, the Industrial segments were up 11%. GE Capital Vertical earnings of $531 million in the quarter were up 19%. Before we get into the traditional pages, I wanted to first walk the different elements of our earnings for the quarter, so the dynamics are clear given all the moving pieces of GE Capital. Starting with the first column on the left and working down, Industrial operating income was $2.6 billion, and Verticals income was $0.5 billion, for a total Industrial plus Verticals operating earnings of $3.2 billion. The GE Capital Consumer segment earned $459 million during the quarter, which is comprised of $463 million from Synchrony, offset by our non-strategic global consumer portfolio. We incurred $772 million of costs, driven by exit related tax and restructuring charges, headquarter runoff, operating expenses, excess interest, and preferred dividends in the quarter. As a result, total operating earnings were $2.8 billion. Including non-operating pension costs, continuing earnings were $2.4 billion. In discontinued operations, you can see the $4.3 billion held-for-sale charge for CLL, as well as the impact of CLL real estate earnings in the quarter. Adjusting for these items, net earnings for the quarter were a negative $1.4 billion. In the center and far right columns, you can see the associated EPS impacts and their variance versus prior year. Next on Industrial other items in the quarter, we had $0.03 of charges related to ongoing Industrial restructuring and other items, as we continue to drive the cost competitiveness of the company. Charges were about $400 million on a pre-tax basis and $280 million after tax. About 40% of that related to restructuring Oil & Gas, as we continue to execute on an aggressive cost-out program in that business. We also had $0.03 of gains in the quarter, primarily related to the NBCU settlement that we disclosed in June. We also had a small gain related to a disposition in Oil & Gas. Both of these transactions were booked in corporate. On a pre-tax basis, gains and settlements totaled about $500 million, but given the high tax rate on these transactions, the after-tax impact was $295 million in the quarter. As you're aware, we are expecting gains in the second half from the appliances and signaling transactions. We expect gains and restructuring to be balanced on an EPS basis for the year. We've increased our expected restructuring from about $0.09 to about $0.12 due to the higher gains we expect in the year and additional attractive restructuring opportunities we see. Now, I'll go through the segments, starting with Power & Water. Orders of $7.8 billion were up 22% in the quarter, up 27% ex-foreign exchange. Equipment orders were higher by 29%, with distributed power up 68%, thermal was up 25%, and renewables higher by 24%. Distributed power was driven by domestic orders for LMS100 units from two customers. Reciprocating engines for gas compression remain weak and were lower by 37%. In thermal, we booked 18 gas turbines versus 10 last year, including an H turbine in Korea. This brings our H units to 17 in backlog and an additional 44 technical wins. Renewables orders totaled 888 wind turbines versus 715 a year ago. Our two new NPI products, the 2.0-megawatt and the 2.3-megawatt platforms, received additional orders for 200 units in the second quarter of this year. We also launched the Digital Wind Farm software solution, featuring a new 2-megawatt modular turbine connected to the Industrial Internet and built on our Predix platform. This application will drive up to 20% more annual energy production for our customers. Service orders were up 17% on strong PGS growth in ASEAN and the Middle East-North Africa, and AGP orders were 39 versus 19 last year. Revenues in the quarter were higher by 8%. Revenues were higher by 15% organically. Equipment revenues were up 10%, driven by renewables up 53% on shipments of 806 wind turbines versus 510 last year, partially offset by distributed power down 20% on lower turbine and engine shipments, and thermal down 3%. We shipped 24 gas turbines, three higher than the second quarter of last year, but with reduced scope and a mix of more 7Fs than 9Fs. Service revenues were up 6%, with PGS up 9% on higher installations, strong upgrades, including AGP sales of 26 versus 19 last year. Operating profit in the quarter was up 8% reported and up 14% organically. Growth was driven by volume, price, and base cost productivity more than offsetting H turbine ramp cost, negative mix driven by wind and distributed power, and foreign exchange. Operating margins in the quarter were flat at 18%. The framework for Power & Water remains intact. We expect 100 to 105 gas turbine orders in shipment, 3,000 to 3,200 wind shipments, and AGP upgrades of 90 to 100. Distributed power we think will remain challenging for the year. Next on Oil & Gas, the business performed as we expected in the second quarter on orders and revenue. It performed slightly better than we expected on operating profit. I'll start with orders. Orders were down 20% reported and down 11% organically. Equipment orders were down 14% and flat organically. Turbo machinery was higher by 40%, driven by new LNG orders, and downstream was higher by 53% from strength in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. The strength in turbo machinery and downstream were offset by subsea, which was down 48% on tough comparisons, and surface was down 31% on weak North American demand. Service orders in the quarter were down 26% and down 20% organically. Turbo machinery and subsea were down 36% and 30% respectively. M&C was down 22%, principally driven by the Wayne disposition and a softer market. Downstream was up 23%. Revenues of just under $4.1 billion were down 15% reported and down 4% organically, driven by foreign exchange and the Wayne disposition. Equipment revenues were down 20% reported, down 8% organically, principally driven by turbo machinery down 20% or 7% organically, and surface down 24%. M&C was stronger by 10% organically, and service revenues were down 9% but up 1% organically. Operating profit was down 12% to $583 million in the quarter, but was up 5% versus last year organically. Foreign exchange translation was a $115 million headwind in the quarter. Margins grew 40 basis points and were up 140 basis points organically. The business executed well, delivering on manufacturing productivity, positive value gap and executed restructuring. Through the first half, Oil & Gas revenues were down 12% reported and down 2% organically. Operating profit was down 9% reported, but was up 8% organically. Margins improved 40 basis points reported and 120 basis points organically for the half. The business team is ahead of their plan to take out $600 million of costs this year. The framework we laid out for you at EPG of operating profit down 5% to 10% reported and down 0% to 5% organically is unchanged. Next up is Aviation. Global air travel continues to grow robustly. Passenger traffic grew 6.3% year-to-date through May, with strength in both domestic and international travel. Most regions saw strength, and air freight volumes grew 4% year-to-date. Aviation had very strong orders performance in the second quarter with $7.6 billion of orders up 30%. Equipment orders grew 37% to $4 billion driven by commercial engine orders growth of 71%. GE90 and GE9X orders of $2 billion were higher by 12 times, with key orders from United, Korean Air, Qatar and ANA. GEnx orders were higher by three times. Commercial engine backlog grew 43% in the quarter to $29 billion. Military government orders were down 31%, more or less as expected. Service orders were up 23%, with commercial spares up strongly at 33% or $37.9 million a day, and military service orders were up 73%. Services backlog ended at $107 billion, up 7%. Revenues in the quarter of $6.3 billion were up 3%, with commercial equipment higher by 7%. The business shipped 86 GEnx engines versus 75 a year ago, which includes 15 units delay from the first quarter. Military equipment was lower by 12%. Service revenue was up 6% and commercial spare parts higher by 30%, and military was higher by 15%. That was partially offset by lower commercial time-and-material shop visits. Operating profit was 6% higher than the second quarter of 2014 driven by strong value gap and base cost productivity. Margins expanded 60 basis points in the quarter. The Aviation team continues to deliver operationally and win commercially as they execute on multiple new product introductions. At this year's Paris Air Show we announced $19 billion of orders and commitments. LEAP testing and performance remains on track, and the first LEAP installed engines will go into service in mid 2016. On Healthcare, orders of $4.7 billion were down 3%, but up 4% organically. Orders in the U.S grew 3%, Europe was down 13%, but up 7% organically. And Japan was up 12% organically with Africa higher by 40%. Offsetting these strong organic results were the Middle East down 6% driven by Saudi, and China down 7% on continued slow public tenders. In terms of business lines, Healthcare systems, orders were down 3% reported, but up 3% organically. U.S. imaging and ultrasound were up strongly at 8%, with MRI higher by 17%, and ultrasound up 7%. Japan was up 1% and up 19% ex the impact of the yen. Africa was up 42% on a large Minister of Health deal in Kenya. And China was soft, it was down 9% in the quarter. Life science orders were down 2% reported, but up 7% organic, with bioprocess continuing to grow up 13% organically. Revenues in the quarter were down 3%, up 3% organically. Healthcare systems revenues were up 3% organic, and life sciences grew 8% organic. Operating profit was down 3% reported but up 2% ex-foreign exchange. Volume growth and productive was partially offset by foreign exchange and price. Margin rates were flat in the quarter. So the U.S. market continues to grow. Europe appears stable. We believe we continue to take share in most of the markets we operate in. China remains a challenge with slow tenders, but we do not think there is an underlying demand problem. We really like the outlook and the growth trajectory for the bio-process business within life science. Next up is Transportation. Rail volumes were down 1.8% in the second quarter, with car loads down 7% driven by coal, petroleum, and agriculture, and that was partially offset by a 4.4% increase in intermodal traffic. Rail volumes for the half were essentially flat with last year. Transportation orders were down 5% in the quarter driven by lower equipment orders down 19%, partly offset by 6% growth in services. Locomotive orders in North America were lower by 99 units, partly offset by strong international orders. Service strength was driven by $115 million order for Movement Planner and our solutions software business, and very good spare parts demand. Backlog grew 32% year-over-year to $21 billion. Revenues were up 9% principally driven by equipment growth of 13%, and services higher by 6%. We shipped 191 locomotives in the quarter versus 165 in the second quarter of 2014. Operating profit was up strongly at 23% driven by higher locomotive and parts volume, strong productivity, partly offset by mining mix and Tier 4 ramp costs. Margins improved in the quarter 260 basis points versus last year. We currently have 18 pre-production Tier 4 units in revenue service with customers, and we will begin shipping our first production units this month. The launch remains on track. In Energy Management, orders were $2 billion in the quarter, up 5%. Orders were higher by 13% excluding the effects of FX. The business saw strength in power conversion, higher by 33%, partly offset by digital energy down 5%, and industrial solutions down 6%, but roughly flat organically. Strength in power conversion was driven by higher penetration of renewables market, where the business has grown its share 50% in the last year. This was partially offset by weakness in oil and gas related marine space. Backlog grew 10% to $5.5 billion in the quarter. Revenues of $1.8 billion were down 5%, but up 4% organically. Organically, power conversion was higher by 13%, digital energy up 2%, and industrial systems was down 2%. Operating profit was up 19% versus last year, and up 40% organically. Growth was driven by strong productivity more than offsetting foreign exchange. Margins improved 90 basis points in the second quarter. Through the first half, Energy Management operating profit was up 49% reported and up 96% organically. Finally, with Appliances & Lighting, revenue was up 5% in the quarter with Appliances up 7% on strong volume and Lighting was up 2%. The U.S. appliance industry units were higher by 6%, with retail up 5% and contract up 12% on robust housing starts. And Lighting revenue growth was driven by LED which was up 77%, partially offset by a 17% decline in the traditional products. LED now accounts for 36% of Lighting revenue, up 15 points from last year. We believe we're on track for approximately $1 billion of LED revenue in 2015. Operating profit was higher by 62% in the second quarter, driven by higher volume and strong productivity. As has been reported, the U.S. antitrust authorities have filed suit to challenge the sale of GE Appliances to Electrolux, and we plan to vigorously defend the transaction in court. We expect the trial to begin in the fourth quarter, and our goal remains to close this deal this year. We are confident the transaction is good for customers and consumers, and that acquiring the GE Appliances brand would help Electrolux compete in an increasingly global and intensely and competitive industry. And finally, I'll cover GE Capital. As I discussed earlier, our Vertical businesses earned $531 million this quarter, up 19% from prior year on strong performances across Aviation, Energy and Healthcare. Portfolio quality is stable and GECAS finished the quarter with only one aircraft on the ground. The Verticals generated $2.2 billion of volume in the quarter, up 4%, and 80% of the GECAS volume and commitments were powered by GE's CFM equipment. Energy finance arranged deals in the quarter that will fund over 180 GE wind turbines. Working down the page, Consumer earned $459 million during the quarter, down 3%, driven by Synchrony's minority interest. Our share of the Synchrony earnings was $463 million. In the quarter the Synchrony team filed for separation with the Federal Reserve, and we continue to target year-end, subject to regulatory approval. As in prior quarters, CEO Margaret Keane will host Synchrony's earnings call later today. Corporate generated $772 million charge in the quarter driven by exit related tax and restructuring charges, headquarter run-off operating expenses, excess interest, and our preferred dividend of $160 million in the quarter. Discontinued operations ended the quarter with a $3.7 billion loss. Results were driven by our commercial lending and leasing business as the majority of that business was moved to discontinued operations in the second quarter, as you will have seen from our 8-K published in early July. As part of accelerating our timeline, we recognized $4.3 billion held-for-sale loss which includes the write-off of $8 billion of goodwill. This charge is included in the $23 billion total cost construct we shared with you in April. On an economic basis, we expect the CLL portfolios to generate a gain versus our tangible equity. Other earnings from discontinued operations were $582 million for the quarter and are primarily driven by CLL operations. Overall, GE Capital reported a $3.5 billion loss, and we ended the quarter with $179 billion of ENI, excluding liquidity. That's down $124 billion from the prior quarter. Our liquidity levels remain strong, and we ended the quarter at $85 billion, including $14 billion attributable to Synchrony, and our Basel III Tier-1 common ratio was 11.4%. That's up 80 basis points from the first quarter. We expect this ratio to continue to improve as we dispose off risk-weighted assets. In terms of portfolio sales, the team continues to make good progress. During the quarter we signed deals representing approximately $23 billion of ENI, bringing our year-to-date total to $68 billion. There continues to be strong interest in our portfolios, and we have $80 billion of additional ENI in the market currently. By year-end we are on track to close approximately $100 billion and sign between $120 billion and $150 billion in total. We expect to be largely complete with our exit plan by year-end 2016, a year earlier than our original plan that we shared with you in April. At the bottom of the page is the 2015 dividend matrix we shared with you on April 10 when we announced the GE Capital exit. We are operating the business through the process at 14% Tier-1 common. As I discussed earlier, we ended the quarter at 11.4% Tier-1 common. We expect to improve the ratio to 14% or better by year-end as we close $100 billion of estimated deals. Overall, Keith and the GE Capital team delivered a strong operational quarter and remain focused on delivering on the portfolio transformation. With that, I'll turn it back to Jeff.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jeff. We have a few adjustments to the 2015 operating framework. We're increasing the low end of the range with new expectations of $1.13 to $1.20. So far this year, organic growth and margin expansion are trending towards the high end of our expectations, and we expect this to continue. We're still planning for our transactions to close by the end of the year. The Verticals will remain on track for $0.15 EPS, and the accounting around Capital exits are consistent with our plan. We think it's likely that the Synchrony split occurs this year. GE Capital asset sales closings are tracking towards $100 billion of ENI, and we expect signings in excess of that number. Free cash flow is on track for $12 billion to $15 billion, and we're hoping to expand the GE Capital dividend based on faster asset sales. And just for perspective, Appliances represents about $2 billion of the dispositioned cash. We've showed a range of $10 billion to $30 billion of cash returned to investors. Our capital allocation plans are on track. And if Synchrony occurs this year, we will be at the high end of this range. So the GE team is executing. Despite managing a substantial portfolio pivot, our operating execution remains excellent. We're gaining momentum towards our long-term goals, and going forward we can give investors strong Industrial EPS growth while returning significant cash through dividends and buyback. And we've created a premier industrial company, well positioned to win in this environment. So, Matt, let's take some questions.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Thanks, Jeff. I'll now turn it over to the operator to open up the phone lines for questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Happy Friday summer. Hopefully we can all go home a little early, as this earnings release is relatively easy to get through versus the past, so thanks for that. I wanted to ask a couple questions, and first one just related to Oil & Gas. When you take the order book and the pricing in that order book and you push it forward to whatever the typical backlog of that is, let's say it's six months or so, can you hold margins when you get to that timeframe? How does that mix shift look? I'm just trying to get a sense of how you even think about modeling a down 20%-plus order book in that business.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Scott, I'll start and then let Jeff also add some perspective. I think our expectation always was that we could hold margins as we went through this process. And you've seen that so far this year. I think going into the cyclicality in oil and gas, there were a number of, I would say, inefficiencies already in the industry. So I think there were good productivity opportunities from the start. We'll take out $600 million-ish of cost this year. That will be more next year. So we've been able to do a good job on cost. And I think the combination of those things and the mix of businesses we have I think gives us a perspective that we should be able to hold on margins going forward despite a more challenging market.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
The only thing I would add is that $1 billion cost-out target for 2016 is absolutely critical to me. There's no question that although we've not repriced any of the existing order book, there's no question that new orders are going to be challenging from a pricing perspective. That's why all the work around restructuring and product service cost is so critical in terms of profitability and operating margins. So the team is executing ahead of plan. We feel really good about their ability to execute on that cost roadmap that we've laid out with them.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay, that's helpful. And then as a follow -p just on asset sales you made a commentary and said that things are ahead of plan. Volume is certainly ahead of plan. But can you give us a sense of the pricing and how – and I know this stuff hasn't happened yet, but indications of interest and such, and you're probably in various stages of price discovery. But give us a sense of really where pricing is coming in versus your expectations.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So if you think about it in terms of deals that Keith and the team have signed, right now we're roughly – excluding real estate, we're about 5%, a little over 5% ahead of the fair values we used on the April 10 call over the baseline, if you will, for the Hubble. So so far I think we're doing better on price than that baseline. Having said that, because we're accelerating the sales of these portfolios and franchises, that means the earnings that we're going to enjoy over what we thought the whole period was going to be, is shortened. And so right now I would say those two things more or less offset each other. Better on price for what we signed so far, but we're selling them quick and we'll earn less as a result of not owning them as long as we thought.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
We can live with that.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So still on track for the prices.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yes, still on track.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah, now, I get it. Okay. Thanks, guys, and good luck.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Great. Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
The next question comes from Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hey. Thanks, and good morning, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Steve.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
So I just want to make sure I understand a little bit how you're thinking about the one-time items and restructuring offsetting the gains. On the NBCU gains side, what drove that this many years later? And how do you think about that from an accounting or maybe reporting perspective, in terms of comparison with Lake and other things that you treated in discontinued operations, versus putting this one in continued op? I just want to understand the logic there.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
It was a result of an agreement when the initial JV was set up. It hit a life span that spanned many years, and in the second quarter, we and Comcast agreed to settle that arrangement, if you will. It was $450 million in the quarter as we talked about, about $0.03 after tax. The accounting around it has it in continuing operations, the accounting doesn't push it into discontinued operations. So it's just a function of how the accounting works.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. But why would Lake have been in DiscOps, but not this?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Because we moved the whole Lake operation into discontinued operations, and including the liability that we had with Shinsei associated with it around the guarantee and the runoff of that book.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We had a contiguous piece of NBC as a result of this JV operation that was in continuing ops, and we just settled it. And it's always been there.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay, all right, fair enough. Next question, what is the transactions that we're talking about? I know you can't comment a lot on Appliances and Alstom. If they do not close by the end of the year, how would that affect the operating framework that you've laid out quantitatively?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So here's how I think about it. I mean generally speaking if we didn't close Alstom, the impact in 2015 would be pretty de minimis. It would not have that big an impact. I think we told you that we were expecting Alstom net of everything to be about a $0.01 a share in the year. So on Appliances, obviously the framework included the gain associated with Appliances. And we pick up a couple more quarters of earnings than we had anticipated that will offset part of that. And then we'd relook at what we're doing around restructuring. Right now we're talking about $0.12 of restructuring, and we'd rethink about whether we're going to do $0.12 of restructuring. So that's how we're thinking about the framework for the year.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. And on that topic, Jeff, I know you set expectations for how you were thinking about potential concessions with Alstom at EPG, and you guys were on the table this week on that front, and you can't disclose the detail, but can you let us know how consistent what you provided is with your prior commentary?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So Steve, again, we're constrained on what we can say. I think the proposal is confidential, and it's not final really until the commission evaluates and make a decision. What I would say is that we proposed a remedy that addressed their concerns while preserving really the strategic and economic rationale that I reviewed with you guys in the past. And look, we still like the deal for the company, and more news as the process goes on. But we like the deal, and it's consistent with the things economically, that we've talked about as the rationale for the deal.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay, Thanks. I'll hand it on.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Good morning, Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. Can we go through a little bit more on these margin drivers, they moved a decent bit from what they were in the first quarter. The mix got a lot more negative. I think GEnx was a good part of that, and then value gap and cost productivity got a lot better. Can you just run through kind of what moved those things, relative to what we saw last quarter?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, sure, Shannon. So as you know, mix was actually a good guy in the first quarter. It was negative during the second quarter at 70 basis points. For the half, it's negative 10 basis points. As we said in the first quarter, we expected mix to turn around a little bit here in the second quarter, and in fact it did. And you're correct, part of that is the higher GEnx shipments and it's also a function of higher wind shipments and lower distributed power quarter-to-quarter. So that's what happened on the mix line. Value gap got substantially better. Value gap in the second quarter was about $193 million. It's $221 million for the half, so up substantially from $28 million of value gap in the first quarter. And we continue to deliver cost productivity on product and service. And so the second quarter, we had 60 basis points of margin improvement in the gross margin line, and then 70 basis points at op profit. So the net of simplification and other inflation added 10 basis points below gross margins. So that gave us, first half of 70 basis points improvement in the gross margin line and 100 basis points at op profit, so those were really the dynamics. I think mix turned around like we thought it would, versus extremely strong first quarter, and value gap got substantially better.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
And how should we think about these different dynamics playing out for the rest of the year?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So I think what we said earlier in the year is that we thought mix would be plus or minus for the year. And I think we still feel like, based on backlog and what we expect order shipments to look like, for that to be roughly correct. I said value gap for the year would be roughly as it was in 2014. 2014 was about $300 million. We're a little ahead of that run rate here through the half. We'll see how that plays out. Price has been pretty good actually, both in Power & Water and Aviation. So that's how I – I don't think the framework is changed materially from what we told you earlier in the year.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And then just on assessing this 2015 Capital dividend, we got the $100 billion of sale assumptions and the 14% Tier-1. Is there something else that could move that significantly off of being a $1 billion dividend plan for the year for Capital?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Well, I think, we're hopeful that as we move through, and Keith and the team close these $100 billion of transactions, that that 11.4% Tier-1 common rate is going to move to 14% and beyond. And for them to be in a position to dividend as money this year, we need to be above the 14%. We have a few other moving pieces we're working. We have a stress test we got to do, et cetera. But we're hopeful that we can outperform the $500 million, certainly, they've given us so far. And we gave you a range here of $0.5 billion to $7 billion in April 10, and I think we're kind of still in that range.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
And is there a time when you make that decision, or is it based on the timing of asset sales?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
It's based on the timing of asset sales, and more likely not would be late fourth quarter.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. All right. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
The next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Deane. How are you doing?
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Doing really well, thanks. Hey, just going back to the Alstom deal, and I know there's sensitivities here, but can we talk about the plan B? If you do have to walk away from a compromised deal, is it clear that you would put all that deal Capital right into buybacks?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Deane, I'm just not going to go there. I think we like this deal. It's our intention to really close the deal, and that's really where our stand is. So let's just leave it at that.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Sure. I appreciate that. And then just moving the focus over to geographical for a moment. And I don't know, it just struck me as ironic that this quarter the growth markets were the laggards. And maybe you can comment on that, in particular, the 2% Healthcare was weak in China, but it doesn't seem to be a longer term trend. But just kind of parse through the dynamics on the growth markets.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So let's see, Deane. I'd say the – if I just gave you a kind of half to-date, on China, the orders are up 15% and the revenue's up 12%, that's kind of, let's say, first half 2015 versus first half 2014. And then if you looked at some of the growth regions from a standpoint of orders, I'd say Latin America and Middle East/North Africa, those places are hanging in there. We're certainly seeing pressure in places like Russia and ASEAN countries. But I'd say the strength is the diversity of the portfolio, and it's our expectation for the year that these are kind of ex-FX, probably high single digits, mid to high single-digits on the growth regions for the year.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, I would just add, Jeff, that we're kind of in the cycle now where the developed markets are stronger than...
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So in the U.S. in the second quarter we were up 10% on orders. I talked about Japan being up, ex-FX up very strong, up 86%. And Europe was actually up 4% ex the effects of exchange. So the developed markets seem to be getting a little bit stronger and the developing markets are certainly much more mixed.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'd say mixed, yeah.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Deane.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hey, just a couple questions. Just on the additional restructuring, I was just wondering what it is you might be targeting? And I guess specifically thinking about the quarter, it sounds like only about 40% of the restructuring spend is actions that might have some kind of payback as opposed to mortality and other kind of loose ends cleanup. Is that correct, and how do we think about that going forward?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So we think we have a number of opportunities to increase the amount of restructuring to get ourselves positioned for 2016 and beyond, particularly around competitiveness. As I said earlier, if for some reason we didn't close Appliances, we may take a harder look at that. Of the restructuring we spent in the quarter, about $140 million of that was in Oil & Gas, and we see very good paybacks around that. All the projects we're working on today are all inside of the 1.5 year payback kind of benchmark that we've shared with you over time. The nature of the restructuring has changed pretty dramatically, though. There's about – less than a third of what we're doing today is SG&A related, and more like 70% – 75% of it is product and services. We really focus on gross margins in products and service cost competitiveness. So I think we're on track to invest at very good returns and restructuring this year, and they're critical to delivering not only the year but setting us up to deliver on 2016 and beyond.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
And is the mortality hit just a one-time adjustment? I thought that was more of an ongoing change in pension costs.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
It's a change for the year that we planned out in restructuring and other charges. It's about $40 million in the quarter pre-tax, so it's $20 million after tax. It's not a big item.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
And then just switching gears, Oil & Gas Services, the weakness in orders there, what's actually driving that? It's a little surprising it's weaker than equipment orders. Do you see people pulling back on OpEx as opposed to CapEx or some other timing noise there in the quarter?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Some of it's timing. Services across the board were pretty challenged here in the quarter. I would say the biggest driver, as you would probably expect, has been surface. Orders were quite weak around pressure control, well performance solutions. Lufkin was down 40% in the quarter. So that's really where the challenge is. But each one of the businesses had a challenge around service in the quarter.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.
Julian C. H. Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi, thank you. I just wanted to ask around the PGS orders. I think they were very strong, up 17% or so. You called out what's going on in some of the emerging markets, but maybe give some more color on thermal power services in the U.S. and Europe, what you're seeing.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Again, excellent work on the AGPs, I would say, Julian, continues to be robust. I think just the overall mix and usage around gas turbines is high, as there's an incremental shift from coal. So those remain two big drivers I think of power gen services. And I would say DP services, despite the new unit being softer in distributed power, the distributed power service business has done very well in terms of upgrades and service performance. So I think they had another good quarter and are pretty well positioned for the rest of the year.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I'll just do a quick run through. So service is up 17%, as you referred to. Jeff talked about 39 AGPs in orders in the quarter. That's up 20 versus last year, very strong. But distributed power services were up 27%, and regionally orders were very strong. In the Middle East we're up above 60%. And ASEAN, China, the combination of ASEAN, China, and India was up 38%. So very strong in the quarter, and we like where the business is heading for the year as well.
Julian C. H. Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thanks. And Oil & Gas, a fairly disparate collection of assets and backlog length and so on. You sound pretty confident on the earnings outlook for this year for that segment. How much of the balance of the second half sales and earnings are in your backlog as of now?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So at the moment, in total about 67% of sales in the third and fourth quarter are in backlog. As you would expect, subsea and drilling were closer to 85% in backlog, TMS much higher, downstream technology about 80% backlog. So the business that's got the biggest and closest to a flow business is surface. Surface got about a third of their second half revenue in backlog. So we think we're in pretty good shape here for the balance of 2015.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Again, I would go to the mix of businesses. Turbo machinery and downstream continue to be reasonably strong. Surface, as Jeff said, is the most challenged. So I think the mix of businesses helps give us a little bit more visibility than maybe some others.
Julian C. H. Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thanks. And just very quickly, Healthcare, should we think profits are maybe flat this year rather than seeing growth? I think they were flat in the first half.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No, I think organically earnings are definitely going to be up, and we expect a team with restructuring, and the fact that the U.S. market is doing better, we expect earnings growth in the second half even without FX.
Julian C. H. Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Great, thanks.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hello, thanks. Good morning.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Nigel.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. I just wanted to continue with the Oil & Gas theme. Pricing this quarter is actually better than last quarter, down 1.2% versus down 1.4%. I'm just wondering. Do you feel that the boundaries on Oil & Gas are now more defined? Do you feel more confidence in where this goes in the second half of the year? And are you confident you can maintain price deflation in this zone?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Look, I still think, Nigel, the industry is forming, so I think there's still volatility around oil price. I think we've taken a lot of costs out. I think everybody's learned how to compete at lower prices for oil. So I'm very confident in our ability to execute on the cost side. I would say the repricing is still de minimis, so we're not seeing massive headwind from that. And I just think it's one of those that we're going to have to continue to give you updates on where the market is. But I just think we can manage our way through this.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Julian alluded to the Healthcare margins, and I'm wondering. What is holding back the margins? We've seen a positive mix in life sciences. Obviously, there's a lot of work on G&A. So I'm wondering. Are we seeing here a negative mix as developed markets outperform emerging markets?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
These guys have – how much FX is in this Healthcare number, Jeff? It's more than $100 million, isn't it?
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yes, FX in Healthcare was $40 million of translation in the quarter.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
And that's why the organic number is better than (52:53).
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah.
Jeffrey S. Bornstein - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Now, I think what we have going on in Healthcare, they've got a real price challenge. Price sequentially is down over a point. They've continued to get base cost productivity. Where we need them to focus is on product and service margins. So it's not necessarily a mix issue. You're absolutely right, life science and bioprocess continues to grow. What we need to get at is product and service costs within the core HCS business, and that's what we're focused on driving.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Okay. And then just a final one. Obviously Alstom, there's not a lot you can say there, but it's in the press that there's a deadline for your proposals and you've already made proposals. Are we still working towards the middle list timeline for a decision, or is that being pushed back to later in the quarter?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think the timeline right now is in early to mid-September, I believe, is where the timeline is, Nigel. And I think that's probably a pretty good timeframe.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. I'll leave it there. Thanks a lot, guys.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah.
Operator:
The next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes, good morning.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Just more Oil & Gas. So what are you hearing about your customers on oil and gas side? Are you getting pressure requests to be the consolidator of the supply chain? It just seems that people broadly want to deal with people with real balance sheets and people that can survive the storm.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Look Andrew, I think that there's a certain amount that I think is going to be in play in that regard. I don't think that is a recent phenomenon. I think that started back several years. And so there remains in the oil and gas business a real opportunity to drive better system efficiency between suppliers and the IOCs and the NOCs. And we look at this cycle as a good opportunity for us to drive efficiency.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay, and just a follow-up question. Looking your organic growth rates and order growth rates and compare them to what we're seeing from the macro, it just seems you guys are taking market share. You're a very large company taking a lot of market share. How long do you think you can do it without triggering a price response from your competition that's seemingly getting clobbered?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Look, in our world, technology matters. And so if you look at the Aviation business, if you look at locomotives, if you look at gas turbines, if you look at Healthcare, we have a great lineup of technologies that are quite robust. And in the end, that's the way you can gain good market position and margins at the same time. And then on the service side, I think our analytics are starting to play through both from a pricing standpoint and also from a productivity standpoint. So that's another example of technology, and what it can drive. So I think...
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
So you'll look at it as a payoff on your investments over the past couple or many years.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Definitely. I definitely do.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Great. Jeff. A few quick items before you wrap up. The replay of today's webcast will be available this afternoon on our website. We'll hold our third quarter 2015 earnings webcast on Friday, October 16. And as always we'll be available later today for questions. Jeff?
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Great. Thanks, Matt. Again, I think you guys see the portfolio taking shape, and the hard work we've done. But I really want to call out the great execution by the GE team in the quarter. I think margins, organic growth, cash, GE Capital portfolio re-positioning, the GE team really did a great job of execution in the quarter. So Matt, back to you.
Matthew G. Cribbins - Vice President-Corporate Investor Communications:
Great. Thanks.
Jeffrey R. Immelt - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, everybody.
Operator:
This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matthew Cribbins - VP of Investor Communications Jeffrey Immelt - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Bornstein – SVP and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Capital Steven Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Company Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Barbara Noverini - Morningstar Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Robert McCarthy - Stifel Nicolaus Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Joanna and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator instructions] As a reminder the conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matthew Cribbins :
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome everyone. We are pleased to host today’s first quarter 2015 earnings webcast. Regarding the materials for this webcast, we issued the press release, presentation and supplemental earlier this morning on our website at www.ge.com/investor. As a reminder, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change as the world changes. Please interpret them in that light. For today’s webcast, we have our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; and our Senior Vice President and CFO, Jeff Bornstein. Now I’d like to turn it over to our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt.
Jeffrey Immelt :
Thanks, Matt. GE had a good quarter in a slow growth and volatile environment just to give you an economic read from the world of GE. We see the US getting a little bit better everyday, Europe is slightly improving, overall, China remains good for GE. Resource rich markets are mixed. We expect to have positive revenue in places like the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Meanwhile, Russia and Australia will be tough. We are seeing the world that we plan for. Industrial EPS grew by 14% despite having $0.03 of uncovered restructuring. Operating EPS was $0.31 excluding the impact of the capital announcement. Organically, orders were up 1% and revenue grew 3%. Industrial segment profit grew by 9% or 12% organically with margins up 120 basis points. Oil and gas had a solid first quarter. Organically, they were positive in orders with revenue flat. Profit was up 11% organically. The oil and gas market remains volatile with some segments under pressure. However, our diversified oil and gas platforms delivered in the first quarter. We are on track for our targets in 2015. We are running the company well. We spent a bit of time last week discussing capital allocation. I would only reiterate that we are on full execution of our GE Capital plan. All of our CFOA targets and capital allocation goals are in line with our framework. We remain on track for industrial EPS of $1.10 to $1.20. Orders were up 1% organically and we finished the quarter with $263 billion of backlog. Again, oil and gas orders were up 2% organically, as they closed a few big Subsea deals. Orders pricing declined slightly. Service orders were up 3% organically with broad based strength. Aviation spares grew by 31% and remained robust. We remain on track for strong orders in predictivity in 2015. New installed orders for healthcare, IT grew substantially in the first quarter. We launched asset performance management in the manufacturing space. Orders for transportation, software and solutions are planned to be up 50% for the year and we expect consistent growth for wind power up [and EGPs] [ph] for the year. We saw some encouraging signs in the quarter. Aviation remains very strong recording $800 million on LEAP orders. The LEAP has won 79% of all neo and max orders. LEAP engines for Neo and C-919 are flying and the LEAP for Boeing is in the test plane and flying soon. The engine is ahead of schedule. The LEAP engine has been one of our most successful product launches in history. Healthcare equipment orders grew by 5% in the US. Transportation continues to record global wins and they received a $350 million order in Angola. Power conversion grew orders by 10% and we have solid orders performance in China of 54%. We expected power to have tough comps in the first quarter. In addition, they saw several orders slip into the second quarter. But overall, we see good demand for units in North America, Japan, Saudi, North Africa, Mexico and Brazil and we anticipate a strong power orders recovery in the second quarter. Orders support our organic growth target for the year. Our businesses executed well in the quarter. Organic revenue growth was up 3%. Geographic growth is balanced. US was up 2% and growth markets were up 6%. We saw strength in China up 6%, Middle East, up 19%, Africa up 11% and Latin America up 13%. From a business standpoint, we had organic growth in six or seven segments, and we have forecast organic growth of up 2% to 5% and remain on track for that. Margins continue to be a good story with growth of a 120 basis points. We have targeted 50 basis points of gross margin expansion for the year and we hit 90 basis points in the first quarter. We had favorable mix value gap and productivity in the quarter. Meanwhile, simplification continues to drive good results and we are seeing more benefits ahead. One of the goals for 2015 is to expand margins in both equipment and service. We grew equipment margins by 120 basis points and service by 70 basis points in the quarter. We are making progress on margins as a company. Industrial CFOA was $900 million. It was less than expected. Our shortfall was driven by some aviation supply chain disruptions in power and water orders timing. We will recover this in the second quarter. At the half, we plan on CFOA to be significantly higher than a year ago and we are on track for CFOA goals for the year. Our balance sheet remains quite strong. In the future, we will continue to look at ways to achieve a more efficient balance sheet. From a capital allocation standpoint Alstom remains on track for the second half close. We always expected that this deal would get a second look in the US and Europe. Alstom is impacted by similar volatile market dynamics as GE. But we continue to see this as a good strategic international fit for us and we intend on completing a deal that is good for investors. Now over to Jeff.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Thanks, Jeff. I will start with the first quarter summary. As we discussed last week, we took a significant day one charge related to the exit of the non-vertical assets of GE Capital. On this page, I will start with the underlying financial performance of the company, excluding those charges and then on the next page, I’ll walk you back to our reported financials. We had revenues of $33.1 billion, which were down 3% in the quarter driven by GE Capital which was down 7%. Industrial sales of $23.8 billion were down 1%. Operating earnings of $3.1 billion were down 5% on lower GE Capital earnings. Operating earnings per share of $0.31 were down 6%, with Industrial EPS up 14% and GE Capital EPS down 21%. Continuing EPS of $0.27 includes the impact of non-operating pensions and net EPS includes the impact of discontinued operations. As Jeff said, CFOA for the quarter is $1.3 billion. We had Industrial CFOA of $900 million and received $450 million of dividends from GE Capital. Industrial cash flow was lighter than our expectations driven by the timing on progress collections, particularly in power and water and the impact of an aviation supply chain issue on inventory. These timing issues will reverse in the second and third quarter and our expectation is that the Industrial cash flow will be stronger in 2Q and will be up substantially for the first half versus last year. The GE Capital exit significantly impacts our tax rate for the quarter. As a result, we are providing both the reported tax provisions and tax rates on the bottom left side of the chart. The GE tax rate for the quarter was 23%, in line with guidance we provided. The reported GE Capital tax rate is not meaningful as the charges to shrink the company cause there to be a $6.2 billion tax expense, while there is a significant pretax loss. As we noted previously, GE Capital have a higher tax rate going forward and we expect variability in the tax rate as we transition the business through the next few years. On the right side, you can see the segment results. Industrial segment revenues were down 1% reported and up 3% organically reflecting about four points of headwind from foreign exchange. Foreign exchange was approximately $940 million drag on Industrial segment revenue and about $120 million impact on op profit. Despite this headwind, Industrial segment operating profit was up 9%. GE Capital earnings were down 21% primarily driven by lower Synchrony earnings, due to the minority interest and lower assets. I’ll cover the dynamics of each of the segments in a couple of pages, but first, I want to walk these results to our reported financials. Starting with the first column on the left and working down, as we said, Industrial operating earnings were $1.6 billion, up 14% and GE Capital earnings were $1.5 billion for total operating earnings of $3.1 billion. Including non-operating pension, continuing earnings were $2.7 billion. We had approximately $80 million benefit in discontinued operations associated with the sale of our consumer mortgage business in Australia to bring net earnings to $2.8 billion. The next column is the impact of GE Capital exit announcements as we reviewed with you last week. As we discussed, we took a $14 billion charge associated with classifying businesses and assets that’s held for sale and a $6 billion tax charge. We also took a $2.3 billion disc ops charge principally reflecting the real estate transaction. After adjusting first quarter operations for these items, the reported amounts are shown in the third column. So $2.8 billion of operations net earnings offset by $16.4 billion of GE Capital charges works to the reported $13.6 billion net earnings loss for the first quarter or a loss of $1.35 per share. As we move to the execution plan we shared with you last week, there will be adjustments and we will continue to keep you updated on progress and the impacts of those actions. Next on other items. We don’t have a long list this quarter. We had $0.03 related to ongoing industrial restructuring and other items as we continue to take actions to improve the cost structure of the company. This was $422 million on a pretax basis. But about a third of that related to restructuring oil and gas. As we discussed before, we are taking aggressive actions to reduce our cost footprint given the challenging environment and the team are laser-focused on execution. For the year, we will continue to execute on restructuring projects with urgency. As you are aware, we are expecting some gains this year from appliances and signaling transaction. In the profile on the bottom of the page, we have assumed that appliance gain in the second quarter and the signaling gain in the second half, but both are subject to regulatory approval. Although there will be quarterly variability in gains and restructuring time, we expect gains to equal restructuring for the year on an EPS basis. Next I will give an update on power and water. Orders for the quarter were $4.5 billion were down 21% driven by equipment orders down 29% and services down 15%. Orders were lighter than expected due to financing delays and timing of agreements, but not competitive losses. For example, we signed a deal for two 7F gas in this week that we expected to sign in the first quarter. Our framework for wind and thermal orders has not changed for the year and we expect second quarter orders to be up double-digits. In the first quarter, we booked 21 gas turbines versus 31 a year ago and 376 wind turbines versus 422 turbines in the first quarter of 2014. In terms of edge technology, we reported another order for a 90K in Latin America and this brings the backlog to 16 units. In addition, we’ve been technically selected on an additional 37 units and are bidding an incremental 50 units beyond that. Distributed power equipment orders were down 53%, driven by a nine fewer turbines. We expect distributed power turbines orders to be roughly flat for the year. Gas engine orders were lower by 39% in the quarter driven by softer demand in gas compression. Overall, DPE will continue to be soft for the year. Service orders were down 15% with PGFs down 20%, driven by no repeat of a large upgrade in Japan a year ago and lower new unit installs. EGP orders were 16, down one year-over-year. No change in outlook for EGPs or services for the total year. Revenue of $5.7 billion was higher by 4%, but was up 9% ex foreign exchange. Equipment revenues were up 1% on very strong thermal volume. We shipped 39 gas turbines versus 17 a year ago, that was partially offset by distributed power down 37%, and renewables down 30% on lower unit shipments of 15 and 175 respectively. Service revenues were higher by 7%, driven by higher upgrades including EGP upgrades 21 versus 17 a year ago. Operating profit of $871 million was down 2%, that’s flat ex foreign exchange driven by higher volume offset by negative productivity and supply chain and engineering associated with the H ramp and negative product mix due to lower distributed power. Value gap in the quarter was a positive $12 million. Op profit margins were down 90 basis points in the quarter. We remain on track with the outlook we provided and we expect 100 to 105 gas turbine orders and shipments this year with a good pipeline of activity. We still expect wind shipments of around 3000 to 3200 turbines and AGP upgrades remain on track and distributed power will remain pressured throughout the year. Next I’ll cover oil and gas. Oil and gas orders of $4.3 billion were down 6% reported, but up 2% organically. Equipment orders of $2.2 billion were down 10% flat organically. Service orders were down 27% on a weak North American activity and TMS’s orders were down 23% with no repeat of two large LNG orders we took in the first quarter of last year. It was still a decent order this quarter for TMS which booked more than $700 million of new orders in the quarter. Subsea and drilling orders were up 74% on large deals we booked in Ghana and Brazil. Service orders of $2.1 billion were down 3% and up 4% organically. Surface was lower by 21% and TMS was down 8% largely due to foreign exchange. Subsea was strong up 21%, MNC was down 1% organically. Revenues of just under $4 billion were flat year-over-year organically and down 8% reported. Reported negative 3% include seven points of foreign exchange and one point of disposition. Equipment revenues were down 13% with TMS down 9% reported, but up 22% ex foreign exchange and Subsea down 8% reported, but up 6% ex exchange. MNC was down 8% organically in the quarter and service revenues were down 2% reported but up 4% organic with Surface down 23% and MNC up 11% organically. Operating profit was up 11% organically, down 3% reported driven by negative FX offset by strong productivity of both base cost and product and service cost. Price was a $5 million drag in the first quarter, but the business delivered positive value gap. Margins improved 50 basis points reported and were 120 basis points better ex the impact of exchange on earnings. This will be a challenging year in oil and gas, but the team has been aggressive on remaking the cost structure of the business and we believe that we remain within the scenarios that supported our total year industrial guidance of $1.10 to $1.20 a share. Next I will cover Aviation. Air travel continues to be very robust. Global passenger kilometers grew 5.3% through February 2015 versus the same period last year with the Middle East up 8.8%, Asia-Pacific up 7.3%. Through February, freight traffic grew 7.5% compared with a year ago with very strong double-digit growth in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. Orders in the quarter of $7.5 billion were up 36%, equipment orders of $3.9 billion were up 64% on higher commercial engine orders of $3.3 billion, up over two times versus the prior year. This was driven by a $1.2 billion of GEnx engine orders up ten times versus last year from Kuwait Airlines, Emirates and includes a GE9X order for Cathay. GEnx received $360 million in orders, up three times and we also recorded $800 million of orders for LEAP up three times. Our total win rate for the LEAP since program launch for the next-gen narrow body aircraft is 79%. Commercial engine backlog was up 35% year-over-year. Military equipment orders were down 61% driven by no repeat of two large orders from Sikorsky in Qatar Air Force from the first quarter of last year as expected. Service orders were up 14% on strong commercial spare parts which were up 31% at $38.9 million a day, the military spares were down 11%. Revenues of $5.7 billion were down 2%. Equipment revenues were down 8% with commercial equipment revenue down 1% on lower GEnx shipments. We shipped 19 fewer units than last year, 51 versus 70 and 29 less units in our plan as a result of a supply chain disruption. Military equipment revenue was down 32% on lower shipments and service revenue was up 4% with commercial spare parts up 28% and Military Services up 3%. Op profit was up 18% on very strong value gap, variable cost productivity and favorable GEnx mix, partially offset by lower volume and higher R&D. Margins improved 390 basis points in the quarter. The impact of the lower GEnx shipments improved the margin write by about 90 basis points. This is net of some cost to remediate the disruption. We are working the issue and we expect to ship most of the delayed units in 2Q and be back on plan for the full year of 275 to 300 GEnx units. Aviation had another strong quarter growing equipment and service backlog by 23% and 9% respectively. The business continues to execute on new technology introductions. Service offerings and cost out. Aviation could perform better than we outlined at the December Outlook Meeting. Next healthcare, orders of $4.2 billion were down 1%, but up 4% excluding the impact of foreign exchange. We saw its continued growth in the US of 5%. Europe was down 4%, but up 11% ex FX. Japan was down 18%, down 6% in ex FX. The Middle East was down 43%, driven by Saudi, and China was down 4%. Healthcare system orders were down 5% flat excluding the impact of foreign exchange. US Imaging and Ultrasound was up 7% with strong growth in MR up 41% in the quarter, partially driven by the new PET MR released in December. This was offset by softer orders in Japan, Russia and the Middle East. Life science orders were up 10%, up 17% excluding foreign exchange driven by strong bio process orders. This was offset with core imaging down 3% and services. Revenues of $4.1 billion were down 3%, but up 2% ex foreign exchange. Healthcare system revenues were down 6% flat organically and life science revenues were up 4%. Operating profit was up 3% with 80 basis points of margin expansion driven by strong cost execution, partially offset by lower price. Looking forward, we expect similar market dynamics. We believe we are gaining share in key modalities in the US and we expect the market to continue to improve. While China has slowed, we expect orders growth for the remainder of the year in China. Life science growth will persist and the business team continues to execute on its cost out programs. In Transportation, North American carloads were up 1.8% within intermodal traffic up 2.1%, which was impacted by the West Coast Port Strait. Commodities have seen broad based increases with agriculture up 4.6%, and chemicals and petroleum products up 3.2%. Coal volumes were down 2.5% in the quarter. Transportation orders were down 38% with equipment orders down 56% and services were higher by 13%. Equipment orders were lower driven by locomotives, primarily due to not repeating the large South Africa deal we had in the first quarter of last year. Revenues in the quarter were up 7% driven by strong equipment growth. We shipped 215 locos in the quarter versus 178 a year earlier. Overall, mining continues to be soft, down 23%. Operating profit in the quarter was up 11% on higher locomotive volumes, material deflation and cost productivity. Margins in the quarter expanded by 70 basis points. We now have 16 pre-production tier-4 units out with our customers running on the rails. They are performing an actual operating condition as part of our validation process. We had about 1200 tier-4 locos in backlog at the end of the first quarter of 2015 and we expect to ship about half those this year. On energy management, orders of $2.1 billion were down 3% and up 2% organically. Power Conversion orders were up 10% in the quarter. Industrial Solutions was up 4% and Digital Energy was down 38% from no repeat of a large domestic meter order from last year. Power Conversion saw strong growth in Renewables vertical up two times on solar inverters and the marine vertical was up 15% on a large Canadian proportion dynamic positioning deal in Canada, offset partially by softer oil and gas orders. Backlog for our Energy Management business grew 3%. Revenues were up 1% and up 8% organically driven by foreign exchange with Power Conversion up 6%, Digital Energy and Industrial Systems were both above flat. Op profit was $28 million, up from $5 million last year on a reported basis. The business continues to benefit from restructuring with strong base cost productivity driven by SG&A reductions and positive value gap, offset by unfavorable foreign exchange. Margin rates in the quarter were up 140 basis points. We expect program execution and margin rate improvement to continue throughout 2015. And then finally, Appliances and Lighting. Revenue in the quarter was up 5%. Appliance revenues were up 8% driven by strong volume. Industry core units were flat with retail down 1% and contract up 4%. The industry volume was well below the first quarter expectation of plus 8% due to the harsh weather across the US. We believe GE increased our share by two points in the first quarter. Lighting revenues were down 3% on lower traditional product demand which was down 18%. This was partially offset by continued strong LED performance, which grew 76% in the quarter. LED now makes up 30 plus percent of lighting revenues and that’s up from 17% of lighting revenues in the first quarter of 2014. Op profit in the quarter was $103 million. Now on GE Capital. Before we start with the GE Capital results, I just like to take a moment highlighting incredible work done by Keith and GE Capital team. Keith led an enormous and complicated effort in a very challenging window of time to get the company to this very important strategic pivot. This is a transformational change for our company that will create real value for investors long-term. This has covered the impact of last week’s announcement is reflected in GE Capital’s first quarter reported financials. On the page, we have provided a lock starting with the earnings from our vertical businesses which generated $352 million for the quarter. Operating earnings from the remainder of our businesses and continuing operations amounted to $1.1 billion, which was more than offset by $14 billion day one accounting adjustments related to last week’s announcement. Earnings from continuing operations amounted to a net loss of $12.5 billion. Discontinued operations generated additional losses of $2.2 billion which reflect the charges associated with our commercial real estate business. Overall, GE Capital reported a $14.7 billion loss including $6 billion of tax expenses. We ended the quarter with $303 billion of E&I excluding liquidity. Our liquidity levels remain strong and we ended the quarter at $76 billion including $14 billion attributable to Synchrony. Our commercial paper program remained at $25 billion and we had $8 billion of long-term debt issuance for the quarter. As discussed last week, we do not anticipate additional issuances over the next five years and we expect GE Capital CB balance to decrease to $5 billion by the end of the year. Starting this quarter, we are transitioning the capital adequacy reporting from Basel 1 to Basel 3 inline with industry practice. Our Basel 3 Tier-1 common ratio was 10.6% inclusive of the day one charges. We expect this ratio to improve as we dispose the risk-weighted assets over the course of the year. As I mentioned last Friday, we will operate through the transition in a safe and sound manner working with our regulators and determining the appropriate capital level. Going forward, the team will be very focused on executing the portfolio transformation. As we discussed last week, we have signed deals on close to 50% of the planned E&I reduction for the year and we are receiving very strong inbound interest on many of our portfolio since the discussion last week. We are prioritizing transaction in a way that allows us to maximize franchise value and as I said last week, we will be very transparent as we execute through this process. Overall, Keith and the GE Capital team delivered a strong operational quarter in line with our prior guidance and are now fully focused on delivering on the portfolio transformation that we shared with you last week. With that, I’ll turn it back to Jeff.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Thanks, Jeff. We remain on track for a 2015 operating framework but we will adjust our guidance milestones to reflect last week’s announcement on capital. Industrial EPS is on track for $1.10 to $1.20 and we are running our businesses to the high-end of that range. We are generating solid organic growth in margin expansion. Corporate costs are being well managed with gains equal to restructuring and oil and gas is performing to our expectations. We continue to invest in Industrial growth. Between research and development, investment in plant equipment and information technology, and the potential for industrial M&A, we will invest $10 billion to $15 billion each year in our industrial growth. We can do this and so return significant capital to investors. The GE Capital verticals are tracking to $0.15 per share and as Jeff said, we are focused on the verticals and we’ll keep them top of mind. We’ve set a target of $90 billion in asset sales and this is part of our guidance. We already have approximately 50% announced and have robust pipeline to achieve this by year end. Again, we will update this at EPG. Free cash flow remains on track to $12 billion to $15 billion, dispositions and CFOA on track and we expect GE Capital to dividend between $500 million and $7 billion in line with what we talked about last week and we will update this as we go through the year. We will continue to drive industrial-friendly capital allocation. The dividend remains a top priority. We are still expecting the Synchrony split to return $20 billion to you in the form of a share exchange. And as you saw last week, our Board has authorized a $50 billion buyback based on the proceeds from the GE Capital sale. So between Synchrony, the buyback and dividends, we can return $90 billion to investors over the next few years. The company is executing well operationally and strategically. Our compensation plans have aligned us with investors and we expect to have a solid second quarter and total year. Matt, now back to you for some questions.
Matthew Cribbins:
Great, thanks, Jeff. I will now turn it over to the operator to open it up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Davis :
Hi guys. Good morning.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey Scott.
Scott Davis :
I was intrigued by your couple of comments that you made, but Jeff Bornstein the comment you made on incoming interest into the asset sales. I mean, give us a sense of – and I think the question really is, give us a sense of your availability to sell those assets quicker than you laid out in your timetable, meaning, are the books out, do you have – if the sovereign showed up tomorrow could you hand them the keys and few months later it’s you can get the deal done or is there some gating factors that could limit the timing?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Well, I would say, Scott, the amount of inbound interest has been incredible in both non-banks and banks, both domestic and international interest. So, I think that we are buoyed by the demand that we see so far. It really depends on the platform and the type of transaction we are talking about and we are organized to be able to do this as quickly as possible. Our goal is to monetize these assets, these platforms as fast as we can. There will be some gating challenges on getting ourselves into position to – as you describe to get all the books together, et cetera, et cetera. But we are going to go out to this as fast as humanly possible and I think the positive point here is the level of interest is really quite incredible.
Scott Davis :
Okay. That’s good and then, Jeff Immelt you made a comment in your prepared remarks about wanting to get to an efficient balance sheet or something in that regard and I really hadn’t heard you mention those terms before, I mean, how do you think of an inefficient industrial balance sheet? Is there some sort of a range of leverage or some way to measure that?
Jeffrey Immelt:
I think, Scott, in the near term, I think you have to think about us as safe and secure and marching through this process with GE Capital and things like that. Over the long-term, I think our desire is to have an industrial looking balance sheet and how fast that goes, again depends on Jeff’s answer earlier on GE Capital assets and things like that, but our goal is to have over time to have investors look at GE as an industrial company and have a balance sheet that lines up more or less with our peers in that space.
Scott Davis :
Okay. And then last just a clean-up item, what impact on margins was currency in the quarter? Did you have a benefit from hedges in the margin improvement?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
No, actually, FX was a drag in margins in the quarter.
Scott Davis :
Okay.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
As I talked about in the Industrial segment margin, we had about $120 million FX drag and hedges were a very small offsets to the total impact. We actually had negative impacts all in.
Scott Davis :
Okay, very helpful. Thanks guys.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Great, Scott. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steven Winoker of Bernstein.
Steven Winoker :
Thanks and good morning.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Steve.
Steven Winoker :
Hey, just can we go to that $1.10 to $1 framework. I heard you say, that you are running the businesses to the high-end of that range. Maybe an idea of what does that mean and also how much – can you just remind us how much of that is Alstom?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Again Steve, the way to think about that is, we have an AIP plan, a compensation plan and that lines up with how the internal business plans work. So, I think we talked to you guys, Steve at the year end meeting at EPG about the comp plan, we have the team too. So when you look at the AIP plan that frames compensation for the leadership team that’s what I referred to and it’s really the same comment I made in January about how we are running the place. I think with Alstom, Steve, we are counting on $0.01 for the year. So, not really much impact in 2015 and more so in 2016.
Steven Winoker :
So, maybe just sticking on that then and maybe this is to Jeff Bornstein on this one. How are you - if we just walked our way from again this $0.31 and given the trending of oil and gas, what – just maybe, I think having just a little challenge given the weakness we are seeing in other companies bringing down guidance in oil and gas and related areas what give you guys the confidence of getting to that over the next three quarters and more than sequential second half ramp and things like that?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Listen, I think that the scenarios that we shared with you at year end, we updated again in the first quarter call. I am sorry – in the first quarter on the fourth quarter call. We evaluated a number of different scenarios around oil and gas. As we communicated to you, all of those scenarios we felt were within the range of $1.10 or $1.20. We’ve got the team, Lorenzo and the team are executing like crazy on a substantial cost plan. They are at right on track, actually slightly ahead of schedule. They are going to take out close to $600 million of cost of this year, both base cost and product and service cost. So, when we take a look at where we ended here in the first quarter with oil and gas and how we think about the balance in the next three quarters and very importantly, with all the restructuring that we are doing, the benefits of that largely in the second half of the year, we feel like today, based on everything we know, that those scenarios and that guidance that we gave you remains in tact.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Let me add just a little bit to what Jeff said. I think he framed this year well. I think if the quarter, the guys are actually probably a little bit better than what we had anticipated, but you see all the volatility in the market and this is going to – it’s just going to be something we have to continue to evaluate quarter-by-quarter. But at the same time, I think one of the advantages we have at GE is, we can look at other businesses that have the potential to do better and over the context of the company, we’ve got a framework that we are confident in even if other scenarios in oil and gas take place. So I think that’s one of the strengths of GE you’ve seen the way Aviation got out of the gate and that some businesses get a chance to provide some upside maybe during the year.
Steven Winoker :
Okay, and then just lastly on this topic. The 1.4% order pricing, negative order pricing in oil and gas again, that is really - how should we think about that in terms of – are these additional, is there any additional re-negotiation or existing backlog happening or is this new and where are you seeing the weakness on that front?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes, so, when you look at order pricing, Steve, that 1.4% is almost entirely associated with the Ghana Subsea order we took. So it’s not broadly across the portfolio. We have not re-negotiated any prices from existing backlog. So that’s where we are today.
Steven Winoker :
Okay, I will hand it on. Thanks a lot.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Great. Great Steve, thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin :
Yes, good morning.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Obin :
Just, yes, maybe I’ll let others ask questions on oil and gas, let's focus a little bit elsewhere. As I look into 2016 and what about renewables, and I guess I will touch on oil and gas, what about Subsea because the industry timing on Subsea suggests that orders will be very strong this year, but what does it mean for 2016 in power and water and oil and gas given the specific regulatory dynamic and industry-specific dynamic in these two sub-segments?
Jeffrey Immelt:
So, I think, with renewables, again, what I would say Andrew is, we always think about the US in the context of the PTC. And there is nothing we see today that indicates that the PTC is not going to get rolled over in some capacity. So that kind of keeps the US at a kind of let’s say steady state and then when you look around the world, you see growth. I mean, I think if you look at Brazil, if you look at places in Europe, if you look at even Africa and Middle East, we see pretty good growth. China, we see pretty good growth in wind globally. So….
Jeffrey Bornstein:
I think we are thinking we’ll do another 3000 turbines is our current estimate in 2016 as well. There is a shift. There is going to be more international than domestic as we move forward, no question about that. But roughly the same kind of volumes.
Jeffrey Immelt:
I think the way to think about Subsea is, on an incoming order standpoint, each project that’s going to get a ton of scrutiny whether it’s the Ghana project that we signed or Bonga in Nigeria or projects in Australia or things like that. But once a project is going that’s unlikely that it will be stopped. In other words, you already have fixed cost and when it gets into the production mode, it’s unlikely that it’s going to slow down. So, we still think Subsea in 2015 and 2016 are going to be okay within that context.
Andrew Obin :
And just to follow-up a little bit shorter-term looking into the second quarter you highlighted some delays in Power and Water and Aviation. So, if these two segments recover actually into the second quarter, what does it imply for organic Industrial growth in the second quarter?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Well, I think at the moment, here we’ve given you guidance for the year. We expect organic growth will be 2% to 5% for the year, we were 3% here in the first quarter. I think that’s generally the trend we expect to be on throughout the year.
Andrew Obin :
But directionally, they would imply that ex oil and gas there should be some room for acceleration in the rest of the business, right?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Again, we see those segments getting better in the second quarter, but again, we don’t want to – we just don’t want to do organic revenue each quarter-by-quarter, Andrew.
Andrew Obin :
Okay, I tried.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
So, we are comfortable in the range and we leave the rest to you.
Andrew Obin :
I tried. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS.
Shannon O'Callaghan :
Good morning guys.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan :
Hey, so, maybe just on the equipment margin improvement, 120 basis points, pretty impressive, it looks like some benefit from mix in the quarter. As we go forward, I mean, assuming you can't count on that mix every quarter, value gap, cost productivity and some of those things Jeff Bornstein and Dan Heintzelman are working on, does that ramp as quickly as 2Q, 3Q and maybe just a little expectation on how you see that equipment margin playing out through the year?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
So, we expect the initiatives that teams are going and that Dan and I are working with the businesses on will gain momentum as we move throughout the year. As you saw on Jeff’s page, when you walk through the margins, we had 60 basis points of mix. I think what we talked about at year end when we talked about the year was, mix that probably wanted to be hopefully would be something more neutral. So, I would expect us to do to gain momentum on the cost line and product service cost line and we’ll see what mix plays out. But I would assume for the year that mix will be roughly neutral.
Shannon O'Callaghan :
And any segments so far as you are kind of attacking that cost structure, any segments that you are particularly encouraged by the opportunity you have seen?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
I think every singe one of these business have enormous opportunity. I mean, when you look at the first quarter results, I mean, particularly around equipment margins, just about every business had improvement with the exception of power and water and oil and gas. So I think that it’s not unique to any one business every one of these businesses has an enormous opportunity to get products and service cost at another level.
Shannon O'Callaghan :
Okay, and then just - maybe on Alstom, Jeff Immelt, you mentioned some of the difficult trends in the market but Alston would be facing that you are also seeing, obviously. Can you still get to sort of the plan there even if the markets are a little tougher and then any update in terms of the regulatory process and how some of the concerns of the European Commission around heavy-duty gas turbine concentration might be remedied?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Yes, I would say, let me answer the second piece first, Shannon. I would say, there is nothing really that’s been a big surprise as we go through this. So, we always thought that there would be a second request or that process would take until this summer and so, I would say, so far nothing really is a surprise. I think on the financials, we still look for a high-teens return and $0.16 accretion in 2016. So we still feel that is achievable and synergies are quite robust and we like that. And the last thing I would say is, look, at he end of the day, just like every deal, we have always reserve as we do these transactions that will only do deals that are investor-friendly and that achieve good returns. And so I think we have established that in this case and I think we are optimistic about how Alstom fits with GE.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell :
Hi, thank you.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Julian.
Julian Mitchell :
Hi, just a question on power and water. The services orders were down a decent amount, sales though were up. So maybe give a little bit of color around what’s going on in the Thermal Services business in particular by region, because it does seems as if the orders are softer, AGP as well, and sales are still okay.
Jeffrey Immelt:
So, Julian I’ll start with, orders were soft year-over-year largely because we had a very large upgrade in Japan last year that we just didn’t repeat this year. Secondly, the number of new unit installs that the Services business worked on in the quarter were fewer year-over-year. So that’s most of what we saw in softness in power-gen services. AGPs are flat. We told you we think we do about 100 for the year. We will do 100 for the year. I don’t think we are changing any of the outlook there. So, I don’t think there is a broad team here even geographically around power-gen services.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Barbara Noverini with Morningstar.
Barbara Noverini :
Good morning everybody.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Good morning Barbara.
Barbara Noverini :
So is predictivity growth tracking your expectations since you spoke about your plans back in the fall and can you talk about which of your operating segments are driving the most demand for predictive analytic solutions this year?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Yes, so, we see again – I would say, 30% to 40% growth, pretty consistently across the business in software and predictivity, I just had a review with all the businesses last week. And so, there is a variety of different – and there is – I’d say, clearly, the power and power upgrade, things like power-up on the wind turbine side, we’ve got 10 installs, but really another 100 behind that, that’s quite exciting. As I mentioned the rail business has got in expectations grow about orders about 50% for the year. So we are seeing both from a software and things like movement plan our size are growing. The radiology ITPs is up 13% in terms of new bookings in the quarter. So, some pretty good activity there. We’ve kind of launched what we call Assets Performance Management APM in oil and gas. So we are seeing an original service funnel in that activity. So, I’d say, macro kind of in the 30% to 40% range with strong double-digits in each business as we look at software and predictivity for the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC.
Deane Dray :
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Deane.
Deane Dray :
Hey, just a couple of questions on the Aviation side, that spares number being up 31% really jumps out and do you see changes in airline behavior, is this coming through because of lower fuel and how sustainable is this through 2015?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Well, you heard the revenue, the volume numbers are pretty good. Revenue passenger miles, very, very strong. There is no question that most of the forecast are that the Aviation industry globally, or probably have a most profitable year in history this year. I think IATA was estimating almost $25 billion of profit. And the airlines are no question stocking inventory. You’ll recall that, 2012, there was a really large destocking that went on and since that de-stocking in 2012, spares have improved each of the last couple of years. So, maybe that the airlines based on the profitability to operations are more aggressively replenishing some of that de-stocking that happened a few years ago. But very strong. Now, we don’t expect that rate of 31% to persist for the year. I think, we talked about double-digits and we are probably talking about mid double-digits, mid-teens, maybe. But it’s not going to be 31% for the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague :
Thank you. Good morning gentlemen.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague :
Hey, good morning. Just wanted to kind of circle back around to Alstom. Given that there was kind of such an abrupt change in strategy around capital and you are achieving kind of your business next goal kind of through subtraction largely, how do you actually feel about Alstom here? Is that really the right asset and is there a way to back out of that if the EU is a little too demanding?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Well, I would take that in two pieces. I’d say the premise for the deal, Jeff, is relevant today as it’s been in the past which is great complementary products, opportunity to drive excellent synergies, good return on investments and we feel at the, kind of four times EBITDA, post-synergies is a pretty attractive entry-point into an investment like that. So high double-digits returns and in a market we really know. And then, look, I think just like every – I would back up and say, the company has gotten probably 100 deals through the Brussels in the past decade, something like that. So, I think we know how to approach this and know how to get these things done. But just like every other deal we have ever done that just ever would become unattractive, we wouldn’t do it. So that’s so different than any other transaction we’ve ever done as a company.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Robert McCarthy with Stifel.
Robert McCarthy :
Hi, good morning everyone.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Rob.
Robert McCarthy :
Hey, it looks like we've reached the lightning round of the call. So I got one question from me. I'll make it count. In any event, just in terms of the timing of the divestiture of a large part of these GE Capital assets, I mean, obviously the inbound call volume is very encouraging, but at the end of the day given the size, scope and nature of a lot of these businesses, you’re going to be dealing probably with a lot of large, SIFI like institutions, I mean, how do you reconcile the need for speed killing in terms of getting to these divestitures versus getting the right price and how are you thinking about those decisions and do you think the timeline is practical?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Well, I think the plan that Keith laid out with all of you last week, we laid out a plan that span a couple of – 2.5 years ago, roughly. But that we thought that the bulk of this work would be done by the end of 2016. Now, we are going to try to outperform that. There is no question I think that, when we think about the risk associated with this including price and value, speed is the single biggest mitigate. We have a market today that’s incredibly receptive to these kinds of assets. And so, we need to be able to capitalize on that. There is - no question, we’ve got a balance from an execution standpoint, the nature of the buyer and the size of the transaction to the extent that we are relying on, maybe a back-end regulatory approval by the buyer, we are doing smaller transactions that maybe, maybe not, maybe better from a price perspective than doing several large big bulk deals. But, I think, my guess is that Keith and the team will run almost a parallel process. They will evaluate on both tracks, platform-by-platform, portfolio-by-portfolio, the level of interest there versus a couple several maybe much larger deals. They try to sweep up many of those platforms simultaneously. So, we are completely aware of exactly what you are asking and we have a process and we’ll make sure that we evaluate on those sides, but speed is the key.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Rob, I just want to say that, the lifetime achievement award winner Joanna Morris is working in the phones this morning. So don’t blame Jeff Bornstein or me for any of this activity. And I want to echo just what Jeff Bornstein said which is, you got to think about each one of these assets having multiple options for what we do. So, it’s not like for any one of these, there is not like be one game plan. There is going to be multiple for every platform,
Operator:
And our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa :
Hey, good morning.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Steve, how are you?
Steve Tusa :
Well. So, just to be clear, is the oil and gas guidance, what is that now for the year? I am not sure that was like an explicit comment on oil and gas and then if you could just opine on the - a little more clarity around what happened with the aviation supply chain, there has definitely been a lot of noise from maybe sub-suppliers and stuff like that around that supply chain. So just curious as to how you guys are kind of fitting into that puzzle?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
We didn’t anything on our guidance on oil and gas Steve, So, I think what we said is, down 0% to 5%, probably closer to 5%. We evaluated this scenario is to be on 5%. All those are concerted in the guidance we gave you at $1.10 and $1.20. We got the team executing to a plan that supports the $1.10 to $1.20. As Jeff talked about Keith incented the team and our targets internally on the higher end of that range, not the lower end of that range. So no change or anything we’ve shared in the two calls previous to this.
Jeffrey Immelt:
And then, I would say, Steve, the production is ramping in 2Q and getting back on schedule and no real update other than what Jeff Bornstein said on the call.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie :
Thanks, Joanna and good morning everyone.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Ritchie :
The first question, I guess first and only question is really on the order of priority on the asset sales. Can you just discuss a little bit both on COL and consumer, and I guess specifically as it relates to US versus international, how you are thinking about the order of priority, because I would imagine that given your goal to de-designate the non-bank SIFI I would imagine would be focused on the US assets. So, any color there would be helpful.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
So, where Keith and team are focused on first and foremost, those platforms where we might be more concerned about the franchise value itself, where the people are big component of the value creation process. So, he has prioritized the focus, based on that first. You are correct, I would say, the second order priority would be, we think in the US, our ability to execute quickly and in scale, is very favorable today and it is a big part of the discussion around the SIFI status. So, having said that, it’s not that we are not going to do anything outside the US, we are going to be working the international platform in parallel here as well.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question comes from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe :
Well, thanks, good morning.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Nigel.
Nigel Coe :
Hey, so Jeff, I think you are going to win the prize for most bullish CEO this quarter. The $1.20, I just wanted to kind of divine what you mean by working towards the high-end because right now consensus is close to $1.10. So, are you encouraged enough to raise our numbers and if so, do you see a path of 5% organic or is it primarily mid-point to low-point but offset by margins? So any comments there would be helpful.
Jeffrey Immelt:
I think, Nigel, this is the exact same comment I made in January that just centers where the internal incentive plan and the internal incentive plan sits towards the high end of the range and we were transparent about this at year end and we were transparent about it in January and I am transparent about it April. Again, I think the value of a portfolio is that, you’ve got a series of businesses that are doing well and you’ve got markets that are still volatile out there and we just want to see how that continues to evolve, like I said earlier, like Jeff said, we are pleased with where oil and gas finished in the first quarter, but that market is extremely volatile right now. And we just want to see how we continue to progress, what happens in the marketplace. And let’s see what happens. There is plenty of chance to make other changes as the year goes through. But let’s see how we do quarter-by-quarter. And beyond that, look, I think we are – we’ve got a good diversified set of businesses that are doing well in the industries we are in and we need to see how the world continues to evolve.
Matthew Cribbins:
Okay, couple of announcements before we wrap up. Next Wednesday, we’ll hold our Annual Shareholders Meeting in Oklahoma City. On May 20th, Jeff will present at EPG and on June 16th, we’ll hold Paris Air Show Investor Meeting and as always, we will be available later today to take your questions. Jeff?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Great Matt. Thanks, thanks everybody. We announced a lot last week on really positioning the company for the future. We are excited about that strategic change, that strategic pivot. The underlying performance of the company both Industrial and GE Capital is per our expectations for the year. We continue to make progress. We are pleased by the execution of the team in the first quarter and we look forward to the rest of the year. Thanks, Matt.
Operator:
This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matthew Cribbins – VP, Investor Communications Jeff Immelt – Chairman and CEO Jeff Bornstein – SVP and CFO
Analysts:
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein Steve Tusa – JPMorgan Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Partners Andrew Obin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Larissa and I will be your conference coordinator today. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matthew Cribbins:
Great, thank you. Good morning, and welcome everyone. We are pleased to host today’s fourth quarter webcast. Regarding the materials for this webcast, we issued the press release, presentation and GE Supplemental earlier this morning on our website at www.ge.com/investor. As always, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change as the world changes. Please interpret them in that light. For today’s webcast, we have our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; our Senior Vice President and CFO, Jeff Bornstein. Now I’d like to turn it over to our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey thanks, Matt. Good morning everybody. Look, we still see the global environment as generally positive with a lot of volatility. GE had a strong fourth quarter with some elements better than we indicated in December. Operating EPS was $0.56, up 6%, led by industrial EPS which grew by 23%. Orders grew by 3%, which was 5% organically and our backlog expanded to a new record. Industrial organic growth was up 9% and margins expanded by 50 basis points. Our initiatives continued to deliver results. Industrial CFOA was $7.2 billion, up 64% reported in the quarter or 30% ex the 2013 NBCU taxes. Capital’s quarter was consistent with our expectations. The US continued to strengthen as in Asia. Some businesses are seeing more momentum like aviation, healthcare. Our oil and gas team executed well despite volatility. Their underlying performance was revenue flat and earnings up 6%. And we believe that our diverse and integrated model worked for investors in the quarter as it will in 2015. We delivered on our key commitments for the year. Industrial segment profits grew by 10%, driven by 7% organic growth and 50 basis points of margin expansion. GE Capital reduced ENI by $17 billion in the hit to earnings plan. CFOA was in the middle of the range at $15.2 billion. Free cash flow was $11.2 billion, up 6% for the year. Our capital allocation choices were in line with expectations. On the M&A front, Alstom should be a financial and strategic driver. Appliances were well priced and done a good point of cycle, and the Synchrony spin will result in a substantial reduction in GE shares. We are executing a valuable pivot at GE, one that improves our business mix while delivering EPS growth and expanding returns. Now for orders, total orders grew by 3%, which is pretty good in the environment. As I said, organically this is 5% in total with 3% in equipment and 8% growth in services. Orders grew by 7% for the year. We had strengthened services which was up 6% in the quarter and 10% for the year, and we grew backlog by $17 billion year-over-year. Power and water had a solid quarter but comps were impacted by the huge Algerian deal in 2013. Without that, orders were up 13% in the quarter and we now have 15 H orders with another 30 technical selections. Oil and gas orders were down 4% organically, consistent with our expectations. Turbo machinery actually saw orders grow by 16% in the quarter. Aviation orders grew by 15% and they end the year with a record backlog. Aviation commercial spares grew by 37% in the quarter. Importantly, the US healthcare equipment orders grew by 17%, demonstrating renewed strength in our biggest market. Our success with the tier 4 locomotive continues. We took 1355 orders in 2014 and are positioned for record shipments in 2015. The US was strong with orders growing by 18% in the fourth quarter, following a 25% growth in the third quarter. And growth markets were mixed. For instance, Middle East, North Africa was negative in the quarter due to the Algerian order I talked about earlier but was up 20% for the year. And Asian growth market orders grew by 21%. We closed 2014 with a backlog of $261 billion and in December we called out a 2015 organic growth range of 2% to 5% and we still feel good about this range. For execution, our team really executed well in the quarter with organic growth up 9% and margins up 50 basis points. For the year, industrial segment profit was up 10% with 7% organic revenue growth and 50 basis points of margin enhancement. Our initiatives are driving growth ahead of our peers. Our product lineup is quite strong. The H turbine is winning in the market. Our aviation wins are huge with 79% LEAP share to date. The tier 4 continues to win. Our healthcare products are gaining share in CT, MR and ultrasound. Aviation commercial spare shipments grew by 24% and power gen services grew revenue by 14%. As I said earlier, growth market revenues expanded by 7% in ‘14 with five of nine regions growing. Also to update on a few of our adjacencies. Life sciences grew earnings by 15% for the year. Water hit a 10% operating profit rate in the quarter with 26% earnings growth for the year. And we won the Boeing 777X on-board computing system. This is a huge win and positions GE as a tier 1 avionics supplier. Margins continue to be good story, up 50 basis points for the year. Simplification and services again are the big drivers. We hit 14% of structural cost as a percentage of sales for the year with another $1.2 billion of costs out. And corporate costs ex gains/restructuring and NBCU declined by more than $900 million. We’re seeing the impact of analytics on service productivity. Service margins grew by 270 basis points in the quarter and we have momentum in every business, and with an intensifying focus on gross margins and product costs, we are on track for another year of margin growth in 2015. Now on the cash for the quarter. our industrial cash grew by 64% to $7.2 billion. This is consistent with our expectations for the quarter and the year. We finished the year by shipping a tremendous amount of volume and our teams did a great job on working capital which reduced by $2 billion in the fourth quarter. Free cash flow for the year was $11.2 billion, up 6%, and the GE Capital dividend was $3 billion, below the $6 billion they delivered in 2013. We ended the year with substantial liquidity and financial strength. GE Capital ended the year with tier 1 common ratio of 12.7%, substantially above the regulatory guidelines. We returned about $11 billion to investors in dividends and buyback and we remain on track for $12 billion to $15 billion of free cash flow and dispositions in 2015. We will allocate our capital in line with the discussion we had in December. Our priority is to execute on Alstom, fund organic growth and continue to grow the dividend. Remember that Synchrony at the current pricing should return $18 billion to $20 billion to investors in the share exchange. In any environment where we have an uncertain macroeconomy, it's important to talk about execution. In 2014, in our performance, you can see the tangible results of how we are running GE. Our underlying business has significant operational momentum, supported by the changes to how we are running GE day-to-day, with more transparency and more accountability. This was an excellent execution quarter for the team and now Jeff will give you the business details.
Jeff Bornstein:
Thanks Jeff. I will start with the fourth quarter summary. We had revenues of $42 billion, up 4% a quarter. Industrial sales of $31 billion were up 8%. And GE Capital revenues of $11.5 billion were up 4%. Operating earnings of $5.6 billion were higher by 4%. Operating earnings-per-share of $0.56 were up 6% with industrial EPS up 23% and GE Capital EPS down 17%. Continuing EPS of $0.52 includes the impact of non-operating pension. The net EPS includes the impact of discontinued operations. We had $0.01 impact in discontinued operations this quarter associated with WMC. This was driven by reserve increase of $142 million to reflect WMC’s current assessment of its loan-loss exposure based on recent settlement activity and negotiation. WMC ended the quarter with $809 million of reserves, flat with fourth quarter of ’13. As Jeff said, CFOA for the year was $15.2 billion. We had industrial CFOA of $12.2 billion and received $3 billion of dividends from GE Capital. In the quarter, industrial generated $7.2 billion of CFOA, up 64% on a reported basis and up 30%, excluding the impact of NBCU taxes from last year. The GE tax rate for the quarter was 13%, bringing the year-to-date rate to 17%. In the quarter we benefited from the passage of the extenders bill and deductions from higher restructuring and impairments. The GE Capital tax rate was 5% for the quarter and 2% for the year, consistent with the low single digits estimate that we previously communicated. On the right side, you can see the segment results. Industrial segment revenues were up 6% reported and up 9% organically, reflecting about two points of headwind from foreign exchange and one point from acquisitions and dispositions. Foreign exchange was approximately $600 million drag on industrial segment revenue and about a $180 million impact on op profit for the quarter. Despite this headwind, industrial segment operating profit was up 9%. GE Capital earnings were down 19%, primarily driven by lower gains and tax benefits associated with the Swiss and BAY transactions in the fourth quarter of last year. I will cover the dynamics of each of the business segments in a couple of pages. First, I will start with the other items page for the quarter. We have $0.04 of restructuring and other charges at corporate, over $0.02 of that related to ongoing industrial restructuring and other items as we continue to take actions to improve the industrial cost structure. At $353 million pretax, this was approximately $75 million higher than the planned and reflects the acceleration of some restructuring opportunities from 2015. We also had a $217 million pretax charge for an impairment related to strategic investment in the energy space. This investment has underperformed in the market but we continue to expect that to be long-term value in the asset. In November of 2013, I reviewed with investors our plan to invest $1 billion to $1.5 billion in restructuring to accelerate the repositioning of our industrial cost footprint and position us to grow earnings through the pivot in 2015 and ’16. On the bottom of the page is the profile of those restructuring and other charges that we took in 2014 by quarter and the $0.01 gain associated with the Wayne disposition. For the total year, net charges were $0.11 per share or $1.7 billion pretax. I’ll give you an update on industrial cost dynamics. On SG&A, we've made a lot of progress. We ended the year with 14% SG&A to sales which is down almost 2 points from 2013. This was driven by a combination of cost-out efforts in the industrial segments and corporate. For the year we took out $1.2 billion of structural costs, in line with the $1 billion plus we’ve been communicating with you. On the bottom left, you can see industrial segment gross margins, excluding corporate. For the year, segment gross margins were down 80 basis points, which is driven entirely by negative mix as we grew equipment revenues faster than services, particularly in wind, GEnx and thermal. As we discussed at the December outlook meeting, Dan Heintzelman, Jamie Miller and I are driving a focused initiative to improve industrial gross margins to an intense focus on product cost. Similar to our programmatic approach around SG&A, we are targeting to improve gross margins by 50 basis points in 2015. On the right side, you can see the corporate operating costs. The bar graph excludes gains, restructuring and NBCU operations from 2013, so you can see our true operating expenses. We’ve taken significant actions on corporate costs with about $950 million reduction for the year. This includes functional headquarter cost improvements, lower global and growth spend, operating pension and retiree health cost improvements and non-repeating charges in 2013, principally the EBX charge we took in the second quarter of 2013. The focus on reducing corporate costs will continue into 2015 and we expect corporate costs to be about $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion for the year. We will continue to reduce corporate costs but this will be partly offset by higher pension expenses as Jeff outlined during the outlook meeting in December. Now going to the segments and start with power and water. Orders in the fourth quarter totaled $9.5 billion, down 8%. Orders were higher by 13%, excluding the Algerian mega deal in the fourth quarter of last year. Equipment orders were down 12%, driven by thermal down 62% as a result of a difficult comparison to last year's 270% increase, including Algeria. We had orders for 41 gas turbines in the quarter, flat with last year excluding the Algerian deal. In the fourth quarter, we received an order for 2 H turbines bringing units and backlog to 15 Hs and we’ve been selected for another 30 units on projects and are bidding in additional 61 units as we speak. Total gas turbine order count for the year finished at 105 units, representing 18 GW of power. Partially offsetting thermal’s orders decline was [indiscernible] which was higher by 66% and renewables was up 47% in the quarter. Distributed power equipment growth was driven by turbines, up over a 100%, partly offset by a decline in engines. The turbine strength was attributed to a large win in Egypt consisting of 20 trailer-mounted units, 14 LM6000s and some balance of plant. The 20TMs and six of the 14 LMs converted to sales in the quarter. For the year, DP recorded orders for 167 turbines versus 174 in 2013. Renewables equipment orders were up 47%, reflecting orders for 1251 turbines. The US was up 16%, including a 138 safe harbor units associated with the PTC extension. And we saw a significant growth in Latin America, the Middle East and in regions we took no orders in the fourth quarter of ’13, including China and India. Service orders were down 2%, also driven by no repeat of the Algerian deal. Excluding Algeria, service orders grew 9% on strong transactional upgrades and outages. AGPs in the quarter were 26 versus 25 last year, bringing the total year AGP count to 80. Power and water revenues of $9.4 billion in the quarter were up 22% with very strong equipment revenues up 37% and service revenues up 7%. Equipment revenue was driven by strength in thermal, up 64% with sales of 44 gas turbines versus 28 last year and renewables up 20% on 206 more wind turbines and DP up 33% in the quarter. Operating profit in the quarter totaled $2.1 billion, up 13% versus fourth quarter of ’13 and earnings were driven by higher volume and cost productivity, partially offset by negative value gap, principally price and unfavorable mix of higher equipment sales versus services. SG&A in the quarter was down 12% year-over-year and margins in the quarter were down 190 basis points. As you look into 2015, we expect to continue to grow services, including upgrades and we anticipate a flat gas turbine market but expect to gain share. We are planning for wind to deliver 3000 to 3200 units and distributed power will continue to be pressured as we look into ’15. Next, oil and gas. Oil and gas orders at $4.9 billion were down 10% in the fourth quarter. Excluding the effects of FX and the Wayne disposition, orders were down 4%. Notwithstanding the volatility of oil prices in the fourth quarter, we believe the relative impact was modest with more impact expected in 2015. Equipment orders of $2.5 billion were down 15% reported, down 9% organically. The subsea orders were down 38% with no repeat of large fourth quarter of last year orders with Petrobras and ENI. Downstream technology orders were down 46% driven by a large Shell order in the fourth quarter of last year in our distributed gas solutions business, partially offset by strong growth of 7% in the downstream products platform. Measurement and control equipment orders were up 6% organically as we continue to see improvement in end flow and process markets. Drilling and surface orders were down 2% with drilling down 72% as expected, partly offset by 7% growth in our surface business. Turbo machinery was up 60% on natural gas orders in North America, the Middle East and in Russia. Service orders were down 4% but up 1% organically. The TMS orders were down 10% on lower installations in the quarter, partly offset by 6% organic growth in M&C, downstream technology growth of 16% and drilling and surface higher by 11%. For the year, total orders were flat with backlog up 1%. Oil and gas revenues in the quarter of $5 billion were down 6% reported and flat organically, driven by three points of FX and three points of disposition impact. Equipment revenues were down 5%, with subsea down 10% but flat excluding exchange. M&C was higher by 3% organically and downstream technology and drilling and surface were up 10% and 11% respectively. Service revenues were down 6% primarily driven by TMS, down 11% and M&C down 5% but M&C was up 12% organically. Operating profit in the quarter was higher by 1% versus the fourth quarter of last year and up 6% organically driven by strong value gap and cost productivity offset by the effects of foreign exchange. Margins expanded 110 basis points in the quarter and 100 basis points for the year. As we outlined in December outlook meeting, 2015 will be a challenging year for our oil and gas business. [indiscernible] and the team are focused on executing on the cost-out actions to offset volatility and deliver on their commitments. Next up is aviation. Aviation demand continues be strong with revenue passenger kilometers November year-to-date up 6.1% on international routes and up 5.3% on domestic routes. Freight growth was 4.4% November year-to-date. Orders for aviation were strong, up 15% in the quarter. Equipment orders of $4.4 billion were higher by 8% and service orders grew 25%. Equipment orders were principally driven by commercial engines. GEnx orders of $1.2 billion were up 23% on large orders from American and Air France. GE90 orders were up 2.5 times to $900 million in the quarter and LEAP and CFM recorded $1.2 billion of orders. Our total win rate for the LEAP since launch is now at 79% on narrow-body aircraft. Military equipment orders were down 59% driven by the slow military environment. Service orders up 25% were driven by strong commercial space orders, at $35.6 million a day, up 37% and stronger military spares. Orders for total year 2014 grew 8% and backlog grew 7% for the year to $134 billion. Revenues in the fourth quarter were higher by 4% to $6.4 billion driven by commercial equipment revenues up 8%, services up 3% and military equipment down 3%. Commercial spares were strong up 24%. We shipped 77 GEnx units in the quarter and 287 for the year. Leverage and operating profit were strong with 12% growth in volume and positive value gap, partly offset by mix and higher R&D. Op margins improve 140 basis points in the quarter. Overall the aviation team had a strong quarter and a year and we expect strong performance to continue into 2015. Next is healthcare. Healthcare had a better quarter than the headline results would suggest. Orders were up 1% in the quarter but up 4% excluding foreign exchange. And the US was quite strong, up 9%. Latin America and China were both up 2%, offset by Europe down 1% but up 5% organically. Japan was down 23% driven by the consumption tax and reimbursement reform and the Middle East was down 26%, mostly driven by Saudi. Healthcare system orders were down 3% but up 2% organically, driven by US imaging and ultrasound equipment orders which were up 12% in the quarter. We saw growth across most modalities with particular strength in CT, up 22% from our new revolution CT introduction and ultrasound up 15% from a new [indiscernible] on product in the women’s health diagnostic space. This was offset by softer orders in Japan, Russia and the Middle East. China orders were up 2% reflecting delays in government tenders we've seen over the last several quarters. Life science orders up 13%, driven by a bioprocess of 60% on very strong demand in the US and Europe, offset partially by core imaging, down 7%. Revenues of $5.1 billion were flat but higher by 3% ex foreign exchange and HCS revenues were down 3% but up 2% organically and life science revenues were up 9% and up 6% organically. Operating profit was down 4% but was up 1% organically. The strong cost execution, including 5% lower SG&A, was more than offset by price and foreign exchange. Looking forward we expect the US market to continue to improve. Although final industry figures have yet to be published we believe we are winning share in key modalities. And China should grow modestly as we look into 2015. The business will continue to drive structural product costs out as we move forward. Next, transportation which had a strong orders quarter up 62% with equipment orders up 107% and services higher by 19%. In 2014 transportation had its strongest orders year ever at $9.6 billion, up 89%. Locomotive orders in the quarter were 284 units versus 70 last year driven by North America where we took orders for 235 additional tier 4 compliant units. For the total year 2014 we received orders for 1355 tier 4 compliant locomotives. Backlog for the year grew 43% to $21 billion with equipment higher by 148% and services higher by 22%. Carloads grew strongly in North America, up 4.4% in 2014 led by intermodal up 5.4%. Commodities, including agriculture, were up 3.7% and petroleum was up 12.5% for the year. In the fourth quarter, petroleum volumes continued to grow, up 16% year-over-year. Revenues in the quarter were up 8%, driven by locomotives up 8%, services up 14% partly offset by mining, down by 31%. For the total year, revenue was down 4% largely driven by mining. Operating profit in the quarter was up 13% on higher locomotive volume, material deflation and cost productivity, partly offset by lower mining volume. The transportation team has executed well and has positioned the business to capitalize on the new tier 4 requirements in 2015. Next, energy management which earned more in the fourth quarter than they earned in the entirety of 2013. Orders in the quarter were down 2% largely driven by softer marine orders and power conversion which was down about 16%, partially offset by digital energy up strongly at 17% and industrial solutions up 5%. Backlog grew 9% to $5 billion. Revenues were down 2% but up 2% organically. Power conversion revenues grew 6%, digital energy grew 1%. Industrial solutions was down 6%. Operating profit of $113 million was higher by 2.5 times on strong value gap and cost execution. For the year we earned $246 million of operating profit, up 124%. Execution continues to improve and we expect substantial improvements again in 2015. In appliances and lighting, revenue in the quarter was up 5%. Appliance revenues were up 8% driven by strong volume. And industry core units were up 8% with both retail and the contract markets up 8% as well. Lighting revenues were down 1% on lower traditional product demand which was down 15% and more than offset the strong LED lighting growth of 72% in the quarter. LED now makes up 27% of lighting revenues up from 16% in the fourth quarter of last year. Operating profit of $180 million was up 32% in the quarter and margins expanded by 160 basis points. Next, I will cover our GE Capital. GE Capital’s revenue of $1.5 billion was up 4% primarily from lower marks and impairments. Net income of $1.9 billion was down 19% principally driven by lower gains and tax benefits, including those related to last year’s portfolio exits including the Swiss and BAY Bank transactions, partially offset by lower credit cost, marks and impairments. ENI excluding liquidity of $353 billion was down $17 million, 5% from last year and down $2 billion sequentially Nonstrategic ENI was down 12 billion to 132 billion or 8% versus last year. Net interest margin in the quarter at 5% was essentially flat. GE Capital’s tier 1 common ratio on a BASEL 1 basis remains in a strong position and ended the year with 12.7%. This is up approximately 60 basis points from the third quarter and 150 basis points year-over-year. Our liquidity levels are strong ending the quarter at $76 billion. This includes $13 billion attributable to Synchrony. Our commercial paper program remains stable at $25 billion and we had $10 billion of long-term debt issuance for the year. Excluding the activity related to Synchrony, in 2015 we have already used for 7 billion of long-term debt as part of our total year plan of around 20 billion. Right side of the page, asset quality trends continue to be stable with significant improvements in our mortgage portfolio driven primarily by the – half a billion dollar non-performing loan portfolio in our UK home lending business. We generated a small gain during the quarter and the move of our Hungarian bank to held for sale. We expect to complete the exit of the Hungarian during the first half of 2015. In terms of segment performance, commercial lending and leasing business ended the quarter with a $172 billion of assets, down 1% to last year, largely driven by foreign exchange. Global on-book volume was $12 billion, down 10%. However we continue to see strengthening in the US largely in equipment financing with volume up 4%. New business returns in both lending and equipment were largely in line with the first three quarters of the year. Earnings of $549 million were up 109% driven by lower marks and impairments. In 2014, the CLL business earned $2.3 billion, up 16%. The consumer segment ended the quarter with $136 billion of assets, up 3% from last year with earnings of $1.1 billion down 45%. Our share of Synchrony earnings was $451 million, down 3% driven by minority interest and partially offset by core growth. Consistent with last quarter as a now publicly traded company, CEO Margaret Keane and the team will host their own investor call later this morning. Separation efforts remain on track. Excluding Synchrony, assets were down 17% as we continue to reduce our presence in nonstrategic portfolios. Earnings excluding, Synchrony, were $686 million, down 57% driven by the non-repeat of gains in and benefits recorded last year for the Swiss and Bay transactions, partially offset by $594 million gain associated with the sale of the Nordics consumer platform. Just as a reminder, as a result of the accounting guidelines, roughly half that gain was recognized in prior quarters as tax benefits and GE Capital corporate, these benefits were reversed in the fourth quarter and again was taken in the consumer segment resulting in a net gain in GE Capital of $300 million in the fourth quarter. In 2014 the consumer segment earned $3 billion, down 30%. In real estate assets of $34 billion were down 11% versus prior year. The equity book is down 35% from a year ago to $9 billion. Net income of $299 million was up 134% driven by higher gains and portfolio earnings partially offset by higher impairments. In the current quarter, we sold 350 properties from our real estate equity book with a book value of about $2.1 billion for a $328 million gain. In 2014, the real estate business earned $1 billion, down 42% on lower gains. In the verticals, GECAS earned $218 million, up 207% driven by lower impairments partially offset by lower gains and lower assets. Overall the portfolio is in great shape and we finished the quarter with zero delinquencies and three aircraft on the ground. New volume remained strong at $2 billion, up 50% with attractive returns in line with the first three quarters of the year. For the year, GECAS earned $1 billion, was up 17% from prior year. The Milestone acquisition continues to progress and we expect to close during the first quarter of 2015 pending regulatory approvals. Energy finance earned $111 million, down 5% in the quarter in line with lower assets. EFS’ volume was up 31% year-over-year at a very attractive return. In 2014 EFS business earned $401 million, down 2%. Overall Keith and the team continued to execute the portfolio strategy and delivered solid operating results. As we look forward to 2015 we expect GE Capital would generate about $0.60 on an EPS basis as Jeff discussed last month during the annual outlook meeting. We expect GE Capital to earn approximately $1.5 billion in the first quarter of the year. Lastly, I wanted to spend a minute and talk about the framework for 2015 and cover four points. On the left you have our segment outlook as Jeff shared in December. Overall there is no change to that framework. On the right side, first positively we're seeing strength in the US healthcare market. Orders were strong, up 9% and equipment orders were up 17% with particular strength in imaging and ultrasound. Orders have been on a positive trend in the US since the first quarter of 2014 and after the final fourth quarter results we're more encouraged that this trend will continue into 2015. Second is aviation which we feel is stronger. Spares orders grew 25% in 2014 and we are targeting high single-digit growth in 2015. Revenue passenger kilometers and freight miles continue to be strong and low Jet A should be a meaningful positive for our customers in this space. When you think about currency, we plan 2015 assuming a stronger dollar but we’ve seen some continued strengthening since the December meeting. Assuming the euro at today's rates for the entire year, foreign exchange would have a modest impact, about a penny a share, so very manageable in the context of the total company. In December, we also outlined our expectations for oil and gas with the backdrop of oil at $60 to 65 a barrel. Since then prices have fallen further. When we planned the year we relied on multiple scenarios, including a further fall in oil prices. Lorenzo and the team are laser focused on executing against their backlog and their costs. The team is reducing employment, executing restructuring and simplification projects to materially reduce their cost structure, all predicated on a tougher scenario. Additionally across the company we expect to realize some incremental benefits in direct material and other logistical and variable costs as a result of lower fuel costs. Oil and gas represented about 15% of our industrial segment earnings in 2014. We believe that within the context of the company portfolio the potentially tougher oil and gas scenario is manageable and consistent within our framework. With that, I would like to pass it back over to Jeff.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks, Jeff. We remain comfortable with our framework for 2015. We expect the industrial EPS of between $1.10 and $1.20 behind solid organic growth and margin expansion. Corporate costs will be substantially lower. Remember we funded $0.11 of uncovered restructuring in 2014. In 2015 we will offset restructuring with gains. In addition, we should have the impact from six months of Alstom. Capital results are on track with Synchrony timing the main variable. Free cash flow and dispositions are on track for the $12 billion to $15 billion we spoke about in the year. And again cash return to investors depends on Synchrony timing but it would be substantial if we do the split this year. So closing the year and since the outlook meeting, the GE world remains balanced. There are always puts and takes in the global economy. For instance, the US is quite strong which has a positive impact in businesses like healthcare and aviation and the price of oil has declined even further since December. Our job is to manage the company through volatility and while we see the potential for risk to oil and gas based on current oil prices, we are aggressively working offsets through cost actions and positive opportunities elsewhere in GE. We are also seeing stronger momentum in several other businesses. In total this demonstrates the strength of our portfolio approach. Looking back in 2014, out of eight industrial businesses, three beat their plan, three met their plan and two missed their plan. But together we did what we set out to do growing core earnings by 10%. In addition, let me give you more insight to the plan I gave you in December. We have an internal plan that is above the midpoint of the range I gave you. The business results that delivered that plan are embedded in our team’s new incentive compensation for the year. In other words, our leaders achieved their IC when we hit an EPS that is above the midpoint of this range. Now I want you to have transparency on how we think about the world and manage our team. Our targets encompass a thoughtful approach to the environment in a broad range of macro dynamics. So let me reiterate. We feel comfortable with our framework. 2015 is an important year for the company and we plan to deliver for you. And now Matt, back to you and let’s take some questions.
Matthew Cribbins:
All right. Thanks, Jeff. We will take your questions now.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Davis :
Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for the color. This is a better presentation than we've seen in a while, so thanks for that. I know this is going to be really tough to answer, but it's going to be really important for us to try to ring-fence the oil and gas profit downside. Is there some sort of scenario analysis you could share with us or at least a sensitivity that -- hey, if we are off 35% on upstream, what kind of profit drop you'll see on that?
Jeff Bornstein:
This is Jeff. Scott, the way we thought about it particularly when we went through it in December with you is we evaluated multiple scenarios, including a general expectation at that point that we’d be down 0 to 5% but we evaluated scenarios that we’re down beyond that, on lower oil prices. And when we talked about the range with you, of the $70, $80, in total dollar -- 20 industrially we included in that our view of what those downside scenarios are. So I think you got to step back and look at it – oil and gas is 15% of our segment earnings in industrial being down beyond 5% I think is manageable within the context of the industrial portfolio. And I think importantly Lorenzo and the team are like laser focused on driving the cost and the productivity in their business and the programs they launched were the programs needed to support a lower downside scenario than what we even talked about in December. So I think we feel reasonably comfortable -- as comfortable as you can be that within the context of what we've shared with you that we can manage it inside the portfolio, our industrial portfolio.
Jeff Immelt:
I think Scott, I would add to what Jeff said, just to say, I think any time in our world we have multiple hedges and we have the hedge inside the oil and gas business driven by the cost action they are taking, we have other upside of what lower oil prices mean inside the company. And there is businesses inside the company that are doing better as we close the year. And so I really -- I think we've envisioned different scenarios for oil and gas and we still feel quite comfortable on the way – the way we described the company in December.
Scott Davis :
Because there wasn't anything additional, I don't think, that was said on the call on Alstom, and there was a bit of a price adjustment we saw in the quarter; I think it was something like $700 million or something. Can you give us a sense -- and I know you are probably five months away from close here. But can you give us at least some sense of your confidence in the asset? And given the new world, that the offsets -- I mean, we've got a better euro environment for Alstom; but on the other hand you've got some North Sea oil headwind. So can you give just a better sense of your confidence of the puts and takes of that transaction, and maybe a little color around the $700 million adjustment?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes, why don’t I start with the adjustment and then Jeff can give you some color on the company. So effectively what we -- there were several points within the contract that we are open to negotiate post the signing. We made a couple of adjustments, it's about €250 more that we will pay at closing. Part of that was a payment we’re making at our request. We wanted to strike the legal entities -- we want to restructure it and buy into, we wanted to change a bit for our benefit long-term in terms of taxes and otherwise. And so part of that €250 million was a payment to ask them to close differently from a legal entity perspective than what was originally contemplated. The second was we originally agreed to about a five year use of the Alstom brand, we extended that in this agreement to 25 years, that was about $85 million associated with that, and there were other very small items. I think you will hear Alstom talk about €400 million, they are counting about a $100 million of interest that they contemplated owing us on cash that they used over the course of the year. We never modeled that, we never counted that. So we see it is about a $250 million euro adjustment to the purchase price but we get a lot of long-term value as a result of that legal entity restructure.
Jeff Immelt:
So I would say Scott, there are always puts and takes, their grid business is reasonably strong, I’d say the renewables business is consistent with -- and also reasonably strong, I'd say the power business is in a flat market kind of the same market we see. Clearly the euro devaluation helps the purchase price and other than that the puts and takes are pretty consistent with how we kind of underwrote the business going in. So their year-end is in March and we don't expect -- we don't really have a change in closing date. We still expect -- we still for the purpose of the plan, plan on July first for everything more or less.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Nigel Coe from Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe :
So, Jeff, you talked about a pretty limited impact from the dollar on your plan. But I'm just wondering maybe if you could just address how the strong dollar and the weak oil price could impact the broader emerging market demand for infrastructure. I wonder are you seeing any backlog or project deferrals as a result of that?
Jeff Bornstein:
So I will start. There is multiple dimensions of those obviously. My comment was at about 1.50 and 1.60, we’ve opened up softer than that this morning. It’s about a penny a share. I mean we do hedges – we are not a 100% hedged, we hedge all our transactional exposure to the extent we can, we do -- we are subject to some translation and we do very short-term hedging around earnings in a quarter. So there will be some volatility associated with currency but I think my point was that in the context of the company we're not at a point yet where we think it's something that's not manageable across our portfolio. We do have natural hedging, we have the ability in some of our businesses to move our manufacturing base globally which allows us to take advantage of changes in currency and in a couple of our businesses where that matters we are actively looking at our build plan for the year to make sure we take as much advantage of that as possible. I would in the short run here we've seen very little that I am aware of, very little impact on our order performance as a result of currency. That may play out more in 2015 but through fourth quarter of this year we've seen very little of that.
Jeff Immelt:
And I would say on – you had a multi – both currency and oil price, I think if you took a tour around the world, look, our biggest market is still the US. The US had orders of 25% in the third quarter and 18% in the fourth quarter. So I would always start by reminding people that actually the US is the best we've seen since the financial crisis and then what we call rising Asia, Nigel, which is really China, India, ASEAN, stuff like that, those are actually quite positive for us right now from a order standpoint. And then the resource rich countries I think are going to be mixed, depending on what your cost position is and things like that. So we still I would say on an underlying basis see pretty good underlying demand in the Middle East but clearly places that are marginal producers like Iraq or Venezuela things like that. Those are going to be places that we’re not counting on much business in 2015. So it’s kind of a mixed bag. And in Europe – Europe for us is flattish, I’d say if you look at the organic and if the stimulus increases European demand, that’s a good thing for us.
Nigel Coe :
And then just switching to the mix in 2015, and obviously tremendous margin expansion on services in 4Q, how does the 150 bps look between service and OE in ‘15? And how does the mix shake out on the 2% to 5% between OE and service?
Jeff Immelt:
I think if you look at in the 2014 I would say product margins were flattish and service margins were up. And look, we described to you guys -- we described to our investors in December kind of an extremely intense focus on gross margins and product costs. And so our expectation is that delivers in 2015, so we’re looking to get some OE margin enhancement in ’15 along with the continued service enhancement, and then Jeff, do you know on the revenue mix?
Jeff Bornstein:
Well I will just say on the revenue mix, equipment service would be a little less impactful next year than it was in ’14. That's our plan. I think the gross margin focus that we have going, which is particularly centered on product service cost is driving at the OE market –
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray :
Hey, a couple questions. First for you, Jeff Immelt, a macro strategic question regarding balancing your framework priorities. And then I've got one for Jeff Bornstein about truing up on tax and restructuring benefits. So, to start on the macro question, you're pretty clear you're in a volatile environment. But I'd love to get an update on how you are balancing the framework priorities. You've got longer-term big mix changes and could be near-term disruptive to the organization; and then meanwhile you're on an EPS framework with a cadence of earnings, quarterly earnings. And I've always called it a bit like trying to change a car tire going down the highway at 55 miles an hour. So how are you balancing these big mix changes versus earnings expectations for 2015?
Jeff Immelt:
The best way I can describe it, Deane, is since I would say -- since 2013 inside the company or even longer we've been kind of talking about it executing around this kind of mix shift that we’ve described to investors. I think Jeff earlier in the presentation talked about the investments we've made in restructuring in 2014 to kind of set us up for 2015 and beyond which again everybody in the leadership team is on. So the way I’d look at this, Deane, is on the industrial side I think the teams – their world is in front of them, their incentives are in, they know exactly what they need to do. We’ve got Alstom coming in, appliances going out and that is that team is laserlike focused between Dave Joyce and Lorenzo and Steve Bolze and those guys know exactly what they need to do in this environment. At GE Capital, look, we’re just going to make it smaller if we can as time goes on. We’re going to execute on Synchrony and that’s what the Capital team is doing. And so I think you got to look at it in terms of every team knows exactly what they're pieced of how we need to execute here. There is no – absolutely no confusion on industrial side and financial services we’re just going to look for opportunities to continue to make it smaller. We talked about 75:25 as a goal but we’ve really run the place, with that as an output function and an input function. We run the place to execute well on our businesses and we think 75:25 is the output.
Deane Dray :
And then for Jeff Bornstein, maybe you can true us up on the tax outlook for 2015 and restructuring benefits that should carry in, and anything unique about the first-quarter tax?
Jeff Bornstein:
Sure. So industrial tax, we think is going to be the core rate, it will be what it has been which is high teens. We will do the appliance transaction, that will be a high tax transaction which will bump the rate up to low 20s for next year. And I think that's consistent with what we’ve communicated. The plan will probably be higher in the early part of the year, lower in the latter part of the year on industrial tax. On restructuring, same discussion, that we’re going to do restructuring next year. It is critical to delivering on everything we’ve talked about. We've assumed the gains, the appliances of signalling transaction happen midyear, we will do restructuring in the first half of the year before those gains manifest themselves. But we still believe that for the total year our restructuring and gains, and to some degree the impact of mortality are all going to offset, we’re not going to be doing today anyway naked restructuring.
Deane Dray :
What's the carryforward of restructuring benefits in 2015 from actions in 2014?
Jeff Bornstein:
What we’ve got to now make up in our cost roll is about $500 million. We will get an incremental benefit for new restructuring we do in ’15, as you know we’ll get partially depending on where we execute those projects. But the carry through from, I would say both ’13 and ‘14 is about $500 million for 2015.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven Winoker :
Hey, could you just give us a better sense of the detail around the gains that happened within GE Capital in the quarter? Just the major gains including -- as well as the real estate side, but across the whole business. And did the Norges thing come through all that?
Jeff Bornstein:
So I will start with Norges. So we did close Norges. The impact in the quarter was just over $300 million. The headline impact in the segment reporting in retail was a full 600 million, and that’s partly because we did the tax accounting earlier in the year that recognized the tax benefits for about half the gain. We reversed that in the fourth quarter and the full effect of the disposition took place in the fourth quarter in the retail segment. So within the fourth quarter about $300 million, $600 million for the year. In addition, I talked about we sold the nonperforming loan portfolio in our UK home lending business about a half billion dollars at a very small gain associated with that about $20 million but a big deal for our UK portfolio. I talked about $2.1 billion of real estate sales in the quarter that led by Japan multifamily that we sold, that specifically was about 229 million, and the total real estate gains for quarter were closer to $330 million. And that made the bulk of where GE Capital gains were in the quarter.
Steven Winoker :
And then just maybe pausing on the order price profile for the quarter and the trend line in some of these. I know we've talked about oil and gas a little bit; it was down 20 basis points and power and water down 70. Are you seeing pressure in the existing backlog at all in terms of any kind of renegotiation activity happening? And also, currency, are you also feeling any pressure? We talked about currency a little bit, but are you feeling any pressure to use pricing to make up for any of the segments, whether it's power, healthcare, or lighting, where you might have broader international competition, any of that coming through? And then healthcare I guess as part of that same thing, which is -- I know this is the business model, to be down every quarter and take costs down by more. But that can't be a good thing for too long. So maybe some thoughts on that too.
Jeff Immelt:
Steve, here is what I would say. I would say most of the pricing impact that we see in the fourth quarter is more mix driven than anything else. For instance, in power you’ve got -- most of the heavy duty gas turbine action is in the edge, that really is not in the base yet but those are higher price bigger units, little more competitive scenarios but not a lot to talk about. Oil and gas, we really haven't seen it yet, nor have we seen – there are some initial letters and stuff like that on pricing but no real action. I think that's all -- again I don't think we’ve seen it in the fourth quarter. We haven't seen it yet but this is early days. So I think there is going to be – there’s still going to be chatter out there. So I don't really take all the stuff that's happened necessarily in the fourth quarter as what's going to happen throughout the rest of ’15. I just think we have to be ready on all fronts and I would say no conversation all around currency and anything along that yet. We will see how that plays out. In terms of healthcare, look, I think you’re right. This has been the historical business model but I also think kind of what we are doing with, Steve, with Jeff and Jamie, Dan Heintzelman is we’re ripping apart the critical axis is gross margins across each one of these businesses. And I think in healthcare managing the pricing is going to be a key part of how we get enhanced gross margin improvement in that specific business.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa :
Just to make one thing clear, what were the impairments in the fourth quarter? Total gains of $650 million in GE Capital, what were the impairments?
Jeff Bornstein:
Hold on one sec, I will get it for you. What’s your next question, Steve and I will run that down?
Steve Tusa :
My next question would be another detail question. Lufkin specifically in artificial lift, we've seen some varying reports on inventory destocking. I think PCP yesterday talked about their oil and gas business, implied down like 50% to 60% in some of their -- on a quarterly run rate basis, showed some destocking. Did you guys see destocking in your artificial lift business, the Lufkin business?
Jeff Immelt:
Not yet, Steve. Look, when you look at like revenues in the quarter were up mid single digits in Lufkin. Orders were kind of down mid-single digits. So not enough to read into. Again a lot of this I think is – and oil and gas is yet to play out. But I would say the fourth quarter was pretty much inside of our expectations for Lufkin.
Steve Tusa :
And then just one last question just on cash. Jeff, just philosophically around the dividend, you guys are bumping up against an 80%-ish type of payout ratio on the free cash when it comes to the dividend. I mean, there is a pretty significant -- it's a big dividend relative to your free cash flow. Is that dividend viewed -- I mean, is there a fine line here given obviously the location of cash makes it a little bit complicated as far as moving things around and being able to pay that? Would you -- is there a fine line as a percentage of free cash flow that you don't mind going over industrial free cash flow and paying the dividend? I mean is it -- and as far as growth, do you view the dividend, it's a must-grow over time? I'm just trying to get my hands around how much you defend that dividend.
Jeff Immelt:
Look, Steve, you’ve got $16 billion of cash on the balance sheet right now. We’re going to do Alstom this year. You are still sitting on top of a substantial excess cash in GE Capital. Look, I view the dividend as being key. We have choice -- we have capital allocation choices we make. We’re going to continue to grow our free cash flow as time goes on and we’re comfortable with where we are right now.
Jeff Bornstein:
I’d say listen, we’ve been running at slightly about a 50% payout ratio. I think long-term we expect to be slightly less or to about 50% payout ratio. So as we work through the pivot, through 2016 we’ve made a conscious decision that we are going to run a little harder to our target payout ratio but the dividend as Jeff said is certainly a priority for us and very important to our retail base.
Jeff Immelt:
And I would add, Steve, just one – just something that I just want to make sure people don't forget and that is, look, the Synchrony transaction is effectively going to be at $20 billion buyback that whenever we execute that, so that's a big – another big capital allocation choice, it's just going to be executed in a different way but that’s quite meaningful to our investors as well.
Steve Tusa :
Sure, and the impairments?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes, impairment. So as you would expect impairments year-over-year were down substantially about $550 million. You recall in the fourth quarter of last year within CLL, we took the moment of charge and we took a little – we took the second charge on business aircraft and then the big item in the fourth quarter of last year was the GECAS aircraft impairment. So year-over-year impairments were better by $550 million pretax. But in the quarter we really didn't have a lot of big impairments, we had one big impairment on a real estate property domestically for just under $100 million pretax and that was really about it of consequence.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Sprague :
Hey, just a couple quick ones. I know we are running tight on time. Could you just reconcile the comment on Lufkin orders down mid single digit versus drilling orders down 72%? I know, obviously, there is a little bit more but that's a little bit of difference there. But that sounds like a fairly sizable disconnect.
Jeff Immelt:
Yes, look, I am just looking at fourth quarter orders, Jeff.
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes, so we report Lufkin separately from drilling and surface. Drilling and surface orders were up 4% in the quarter. So identical to what you would expect in this environment and Lufkin was down 6% in the quarter. So I would say generally if you look at the – as I went through the script, if you look at the orders for oil and gas in the quarter, they are not necessarily what you would expect in this environment. The things you would be -- think would be stronger, including downstream and the surface related stuff, turbo machinery, were good to slightly down and the things you think would be most impact, the upstream stuff was a little stronger in the quarter year over year. So I think we’re way too early – you are not yet seeing an impact on behavior with our customer in the current order rate. That’s to come in 2015.
Jeff Sprague :
You did say drilling down 72%, is that right?
Jeff Immelt:
No.
Jeff Bornstein:
Drilling was down, surface was up. So drilling POPs were down substantially but surface was up. We report it as drilling and surface.
Jeff Sprague :
And I know the H price is not in the index, but can you give some color on how that's pricing versus expectation?
Jeff Bornstein:
Well, it’s not in the index, I would say without giving away any real competitive information I would say sequentially pricing is improving, order to order.
Jeff Sprague :
And then just one really quick one on FX. Is the $0.01 headwind or so that you are talking about for 2015 now incremental to what you were thinking previously? And the reason I ask is you had $0.02 in Q –
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes, Jeff. So what I was trying to say was when we did the framework in December, if you look at that versus I did that math, 115 and 116, the move from December to 115 to 116 for us meant that we were working with a penny headwind that we would figure out.
Jeff Sprague :
But again I would come back to, there is other mitigants to a lot of those stuff.
Jeff Bornstein:
I am not changing guidance in any way. I am not changing –
Jeff Immelt:
We’re trying to give you guys the pieces because I think that’s – we want you to know how we think about it but there's a lot of other things inside the company that we use – just like we did in Q4.
Operator:
The next question comes from Andrew Obin of Bank of America
Andrew Obin :
Hey, just a question, two questions. The first, part of the reason for creating oil and gas was actually to deliver to national oil companies in an environment like this. Could you share some of the conversations that you are having with these customers? And how are you guys positioning versus the competition? And are you seeing that your structure is actually making a difference? From the outside, how do we know that it does make a difference?
Jeff Immelt:
Well, look, I would say again there is not one-size-fits-all but I think clearly the national oil companies look differently at this cycle than some of the integrated oil companies do. So I would just say in the case of a company like Saudi Aramco they are going to continue to produce and there is a number of strategies that are associated with that, similarly to a company like Petronas and things like that. And then there's other places that are in more stress. So look, I would just echo back, Andrew, to some comment I made in December, we like the oil and gas business, we like how we are positioned in it and we think these cycles give us an opportunity to pick up market position similar to what we did in the aviation business and the power business and other businesses. But sort of going through private conversations with customers, I can just say that we still think with a lot of the NOCs, or a certain segment of the NOCs there’s still potentially going to be some good business to be done in 2015.
Andrew Obin :
And just to follow up, what's the latest strategic thinking on energy management and the progress that they are making?
Jeff Immelt:
Look, I think we're in a pretty good – we’re in a pretty good strategic position. This is a business where Alstom adds some competitive capability and scale and our pathway has to be one that gets us to margins that are more competitive with the ABBs and the other players in this industry and that's -- and we can accept nothing less. So I think the way I look at it right now, Andrew, to win, we expect margin accretion and earnings growth year after year in this business and here's one where the ceiling is very high in terms of what we should be able to do in this business.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question is from Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS.
Shannon O'Callaghan :
Hey, maybe first for Jeff Bornstein. When you think about driving this thing from down 80 bps gross margin this year to up 50, how do you see that phasing through 2015 numerically? And also where are you and Dan and Jamie at in terms of what you're doing to drive that?
Jeff Bornstein:
So right now, Shannon, we're doing very deep dives with each business and basically I hate to get too tactical but basically we’re starting with the outcome and building back the project decks from there. So on every element of product and service costs, direct material, inflation deflation direct material usage, warranties, scrap, operating cost per hour of our different facilities, every labor etc. building the project decks that support delivering at each of the segment levels, their share of gross margin improvement at the segment level. And that's where we are today. Jamie in parallel with that is continuing to drive and support the businesses with the ERP which is a big part of giving them visibility and driving our ability to consolidate etc. So we're in the process right now of building very detailed action oriented plans that have every dollar of cost between sales and the gross margin line owned by somebody with a plan. So that's where we are today. I would say this is going to accelerate throughout the year. We’re early in the process now but I am quite confident if we get out of the way we have programmatically around SG&A I think we can make a big difference here and I think there's a lot of opportunity, as Jeff said earlier particularly around original equipment margins.
Shannon O'Callaghan :
And then in terms of just the US healthcare strength, can you give us a little more color there? What are you hearing from customers and where do you really think that market is and decision-making is at this point?
Jeff Immelt:
So Shannon, the only two data points I can give you is just kind of what we saw which was pretty good -- we don't have the market data yet, so we don't know share and things like that. But we have good products and good activity and we got to believe that we gained a little bit of share. And I would say the other data point I can give you is conversational which is – as I see hospital CEOs when I travel the circuit, you just get a lot more positive in terms of their ability to know what the next few years are going to be like to do their planning, to do their growth plans and things like that and that didn’t exist let’s say 24 months ago. So we’re guardedly optimistic but it's too early to call it a trend I would say.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question comes from Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell :
Hi, thanks. Just on the healthcare business, you talked about how the Q4 performance was something of a blip. But I guess the profit drivers down, price and FX probably persist through the whole of this year. So maybe talk a little bit about why you're so confident that healthcare earnings are going to rebound.
Jeff Immelt:
Again I would say, Julian, on the comment you made this is – as Jeff went through in his presentation that there is always going to be concerned about FX and stuff like that in this business. Nonetheless the US is just a big powerful driver of healthcare profitability mix, things like that. And so when I look at 2015 that in addition to momentum we’ve got in life sciences and stuff like that, I think that offsets all the other let’s say headwinds we might see in terms of FX and otherwise.
Jeff Bornstein:
Julian, I’d just add, I didn’t, if you took it that way, I apologize. I didn’t mean describe the healthcare performance as a blip. But what I meant to say was organically the performance was better than headline, when you think about the impacts of FX. So and I completely agree with Jeff, I mean when you – the developed markets feel like they are getting stronger for healthcare we’re going to have challenges and some – Russia or some of the emerging markets. But the bulk of our percentage wise -- the US is still the biggest single market we have in healthcare and we feel much better about the strength there than we have in the past.
Julian Mitchell :
And then just the gross margin up by 50 bps. What are you including for price or for value gap in there? Because I guess value gap was a decent tailwind in 2014. Do you think it's flattish this year?
Jeff Bornstein:
I think in our working construct for the year, we expect value gap to be roughly what it was this year. So we ended this year at about $300 million net value gap and $300 million value gap. And our expectation is that that will likely be what 2015 look like. End of Q&A
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Cribbins, do you have any additional remarks?
Matthew Cribbins:
Yes, thank you. Before wrapping up, just a couple of quick announcements. The replay of today's webcast will be available this afternoon on our website. We will be distributing our quarterly supplement for GE Capital later today. On Friday, April 17 we will hold our first quarter 2015 earnings webcast.
Jeff Immelt:
Great. Matt, I just want to reiterate as we close. The framework we’ve got for ‘15 really has a ton of strength and thoughtfulness in it in terms of the scenarios that we’re seeing globally. So I would just echo that and just reiterate we talked about the new compensation plan that the leaders have inside the company, that really has each and every business aligned to deliver right in a very effective way for our investors as we go forward, Matt. So I would just make those two points in closing.
Matthew Cribbins:
Thank you. And as always we will be available later today for questions.
Operator:
This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matthew Cribbins – Vice President, Investor Communications Jeffrey Immelt – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kieran Murphy – Vice President, GE Healthcare Life Sciences Jeffrey Bornstein – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein Steve Tusa – JPMorgan Deane Dray – Citigroup Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Partners John Inch – Deutsche Bank Andrew Obin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Vivian and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator instructions) As a reminder this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matthew Cribbins:
Great, thank you. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. We are pleased to host today’s third quarter webcast. Regarding the materials for this webcast, we issued the press release presentation and GE Supplemental earlier this morning on our website at www.ge.com/investor. As always, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change as the world changes. Please interpret them in that light. For today’s webcast, we have our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; our Senior Vice President and CFO, Jeff Bornstein, and our Vice President, GE Healthcare Life Sciences, Kieran Murphy. We’ve asked Kieran to join to talk about our life sciences business. Now with that, I’d like to turn it over to our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Thanks, Matt. We continue to plan against the global macro backdrop to this volatile and one where some economic projections of recent been revised downwards. That said, we are seeing solid pockets of underlying growth in many of our markets. The good news for us is that we plan for volatile environment, our businesses are executing well, and we are tracking to our expectations for the year. As a result, we had a good quarter. EPS was $0.38, an increase of 6% versus last year. Our Industrial segment profits grew by 9%. Our relative position in key markets is improving. We’ve gained share in transportation, aviation, power and healthcare. We had great new products. Orders grew by 22%. For the first time in a while we are seeing volume improving for GE Capital in the US. GE grew margins by 90 basis points. We continue to generate benefits from our simplification efforts and are on track for more than $1 billion of costs out for the year. Margins improved in six or seven businesses and our costs out momentum are strong. We remain on track for CFOA for the year. So we are running the company well. And we are executing on our portfolio strategy. We launched the Synchrony IPO in July and as we move forward this will dramatically reduce the size of GE Capital and our presence in consumer finance and we’ve invested in platforms like Milestone Aviation, a helicopter leasing business linked to GE Aviation. So we are on track to create a smaller GE Capital focused on commercial finance. At the same time, we announced the sale of Appliances a legacy GE business. The Synchrony spend, Appliances sale and also some acquisition from the second quarter, are all a part of repositioning GE to be the world’s best infrastructure and technology company with a smaller financial services division. This is a more valuable GE with 75% of our earnings from industrial by 2016. We are winning in the market. Orders were robust in the quarter growing 22% and this was driven by 31% equipment orders growth and 10% growth in services. Orders pricing was positive in the third quarter. Technology drives high margin share and we took orders for more than a 1000 Tier-4 compliant locomotives in the quarter and are ahead of the competition. Aviation continues to enjoy a great success with LEAP wins, GEnx share growth and the GE9X launch orders. For the first time in a while, power and water equipment orders grew in the United States, up 41%. We now have 13 H turbines in backlog and we are enjoying good success in oil and gas as Subsea orders growing by 63% and the launch of the 20K Blow Out Preventer. NPIs are helping healthcare to grow in the United States and new innovations are helping LEDs to grow orders by 60% and power conversion by 30%. Service orders grew by 10% with growth in five of the six businesses, aviation and commercial spares were up 29% and power gen services grew by 10% despite some sluggish end-use markets. Last week, we announced new analytical applications and that our predictivity solution revenues will exceed $1 billion in 2014. Orders growth was broad based geographically, US orders were strong with growth of 25% and growth markets expanded by 34% with five of nine regions up in the quarter. These include Chine up 26%, orders from the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey doubled, Latin America was up 54%, Africa up 9% and Canada up 46%. Backlog is a record of $250 billion, up more than $20 billion in the past 12 months. We had a service backlog true-up in aviation driven by finalization of terms with CFM for LEAP, which reduced the total by $2 billion, nonetheless were at record high. Strong orders positioned GE for sustained growth in the fourth quarter and beyond. Segment profits grew by 9% with six of seven segments expanding. Year-to-date segment profit is up 10% driven by 5% organic revenue growth and 50 basis points of margin expansion. Organic growth was up 4% in the quarter and 5% year-to-date, aviation and transportation remained very strong with equipment growth of more than 10%. Oil and gas organic growth was up 10%. We saw a strong US environment in healthcare and power and water had sub-comps in the third quarter, while we have a very strong fourth quarter shipments versus last year. And for the year, our industrial organic growth should be at the high end of our framework. We had another strong quarter on margins of 16.3% up 90 basis points. Big drivers continue to be value gap productivity and simplification and we expect this to continue. Year-to-date margins are up 50 basis points and service margins have grown by 170 basis points year-to-date. With service orders growing by 10% and strong margin expansion, we are seeing some of the early signs that our investment has started paying off. We remain on track to growing industrial segment profits by 10% at least this year. We’ve generated $7.2 billion of CFOA year-to-date and are on track for $14 billion to $17 billion for the year. For the quarter, we grew CFOA by 41%. GE Capital dividends are on track for $3 billion in the year. We will generate substantial CFOA in the fourth quarter driven by much higher industrial earnings and stronger shipments than last year. We continue to have strong liquidity and balance sheet strength, GE Capital Tier-1 ratio was 12.1%, up 80 basis points and we are targeting buyback and dividends of more than $11 billion for the year. In addition, we expect the Synchrony split to take GE shares below $9.5 billion by the end of 2015. Our capital allocation continues to be disciplined and balanced. Now let me turn you over to Kieran Murphy who is the leader of our Global Life Sciences business. This is a strong GE franchise with expanding organic growth, margins and cash flow. Kieran joined GE in 2008 and has 25 years of experience in the life sciences industry.
Kieran Murphy:
Thanks, Jeff. Good morning and thanks for giving me the opportunity to tell you more about life sciences, a $3.7 billion business within GE Healthcare. The healthcare industry is moving towards a more precise diagnosis with more precise treatment to address an annual waste of $350 billion since most around 90% of currently marketed drugs, only work for about 40% of people. Precision medicine would improve patient outcomes and reduced healthcare costs and this is driving the demand for biologics as opposed to chemical medicines improving efficacy, and reducing side-effects. We are in a central component of drug manufacture for this industry. Our presence in life sciences extends from the research lab where we helped in the discovery of new medicines to the manufacturing plants where we deliver capacity and productivity. And then, all the way to supporting clinicians who use our diagnostic agents to make refined diagnosis for tens of millions of patients around the world every year. The expansion of biological medicines for the treatment of diabetes, cancer, rheumatoid arthritis and other diseases drives demand for GE products and services which are embedded in biopharmaceutical dugs. Today, these drugs make up six of the top ten revenue generating medicines. Also, in the emerging markets, particularly China, there is a growing market need for generic bio-drugs called bio-similars. This has the potential to be a significant growth opportunity over the next five to ten years. And the next evolution of medicines regenerative medicine, which is based on regenerating cells, tissues and organs in the body is an area where GE is investing for the future. All of this adds up to a market growing at around 8% per year. We have a broad portfolio of products which has driven into two main areas, bioprocessing and research serving academics and pharmaceutical customers and diagnostics, aimed primarily at clinicians. For biopharma manufacturing, we have a leading global franchise built on a portfolio of products we acquired with the Amersham acquisition in 2004 and we’ve continued to build value through successful R&D investments and a series of strategic deals resulting in a comprehensive offering that enables start to finish solutions for production. This start to finish solution creates productivity opportunities for our customers and I’ll return to that later. Our Research & Applied Markets business has a series of strong brands for protein characterization, purification and analysis, critical to the discovery of these new medicines, once selected, these consumables remain embedded in the scale of drug all the way to an FDA approved manufacturing process. Within the Diagnostics business, we are the global leader in contrast agents used across the spectrum of diagnostic imaging, including X-ray, MRI and nuclear medicines. We supply customers through a global network of large-scale low-cost manufacturing facilities. With novel in vitro technologies developed at the GERC we have expanded our service offering to allow researchers to better understand the underlying biology of diseases, which of course in turn reaches the development of the new precision medicines which we then help to manufacture. And that brings me on to how critical we are to the biopharmaceutical manufacturing industry. Over the past six years, biological medicine sales have grown a 10% per annum to $170 billion, due primarily to the expansion of molecular antibody for the treatment of cancer and increasing demand for products like insulin. Our hardware and consumables are embedded in the FDA approved manufacturing process of these products. This manufacture of biologics is completely different to the industrial process for making traditional chemical-based medicine. It requires cells to grow, to produce specific protein, which are then extracted and purified. This is an $8 billion market where have got the leading position, all starting from the pharmacy chromatography platform which was part of Amersham. We continue to build on this products and service platform organically as well as through deals, moving upstream with a series of acquisitions such as WAVE and Xcellerex, which added fomenters and disposable technologies to the portfolio and recently, HyClone Cell Media, part of the $1 billion acquisition from Thermo Fisher. This creates the start to finish solution I referred to earlier. We enjoyed close strategic partnerships with the leading pharmaceutical companies who depend on us for reliable, high quality supply. The move to biological medicines that has driven double-digit growth over the past few years will continue as expansion in Asia creates new demand for manufacturing capacity. We are uniquely positioned to help in this expansion or for global pharma companies wanting to localize production in new markets and for local manufacturers wanting to establish domestic production of crucial medicine. We effectively partner to deliver factory interface solutions. Our FlexFactory and KUBio solutions can provide a complete factory in less than half the time required for traditional plants, 36 months to less than 18 and at a fraction of the costs. Essentially, we provide a faster and more cost-effective way of creating capacity and access to the emerging markets. Lastly, we are investing in the cells therapy or regenerative medicine space. An example of this would be the creation of cells for example robust IVDs. The bottleneck right now in this industry is to move from research of small-scale to industrial-scale production and this is an area where we can bring our bioprocessing tools and expertise to enable this revolutionary change in medicine. It’s an emerging market where we have low revenues today, but we see it having the potential to create $1 billion in the future. In summary, the Life Sciences business is a high margin, high quality growth business within GE. We are a trusted supplier for the pharmaceutical industry for biopharmaceutical research and manufacturing. GE Healthcare’s deep relationships with hospitals provides greater access for sales growth and diagnostic and research products. We leverage GE’s great strength in research and analytics from the global research and our software center in San Ramon. We use the global operations and commercial teams across the world to sell into emerging markets. This is a business where in 2014 we are delivering strong growth, especially in bioprocessing with margins expanding by 100 basis points through business integration and organizations and litigations. And we are generating in excess of $1 billion free cash flow. Overall, the dealer turn for this business is in the low teens. This is a growing and valuable business within GE and we continue to see healthy pipeline and have great confidence in the future growth of the business. And now I would like to hand over to Jeff Bornstein.
Jeff Bornstein:
Thanks, Kieran. I’ll start with the third quarter summary. We had revenues of $36.2 billion, up 1% from the third quarter of 2013. Industrial sales of $26 billion were up 3% and GE Capital revenues of $10.5 billion were down 1%. Operating earnings of $3.8 billion were up 3% in the quarter. Operational earnings per share of $0.38 were up 6%, continuing EPS of $0.34 includes the impact of non-operating pension and net EPS includes the impact of discontinued operations. With a small benefit in discontinued operations this quarter associated with touring of taxes on the Grey Zone payment. As Jeff said, CFO year-to-date was $7.2 billion, with industrial CFOA of $5 billion and received $2.2 billion of dividends from GE capital. In the quarter , industrial generated $3 billion of CFOA, up $900 million versus the third quarter of 2013. For the year, we’re on track to deliver on the $14 billion to $17 billion framework we provided. The GE tax rate for the quarter was 18% and that brings the year-to-date rate for the industrial company to 20%. We expect the total year rate to be in the high teens. The GE Capital rate was 2% for the quarter and that was consistent with the low single-digit total year rate that we previously communicated. On the right side, you can see the segment results. Industrial segment revenues were up 3% reported and up 4% organically. Industrial segment operating profit was up 9% and GE Capital earnings were down 22% on lower assets, the Synchrony minority interest impact and lower tax benefits. I’ll cover the dynamics of each of the segments in the next couple of pages.. First I’ll start with other items for the quarter. We had $0.03 of restructuring other charges at corporate, $0.02 of that related to ongoing industrial researching and other items as we continue to take actions to improve the industrial cost structure. We also added $0.01 charge related to the announced Appliances disposition. We’ve moved the business to held for sale and recognized prior service costs related to pension and retiree held for Appliances supporting these. On a pre-tax basis, that was a $113 million of the total $435 million restructuring and other charges we incurred in the quarter. I want to give an update on industrial cost dynamics. On the left side, you can see our research and engaged profiles, for the year, we expect to invest about $1.4 billion in restructuring and other charges with about $1.2 billion incurred through the first three quarters of the year. We had gains to a share of about a penny from the Wayne disposition and so for the year, we are expecting restructuring net of gains to be about $0.09. We’d like to pay back and the operating leverage that we are getting from these projects. The average payback is about a year and a half, approximately 55% of these projects relate to product and operating costs and the rest is associated with SG&A. On the right side, I’ll give you a quick update on two important costs out events. First on structural SG&A, we’ve taken out $674 million year-to-date on our way to over $1 billion for the year. As a result of these actions, industrial SG&A as a percent of sales has come down steadily. Year-to-date, we are down 1.6 points versus 2013. We expect to be above 14% for the year driven by an additional $300 million plus of costs out in fourth quarter and strong volumes. In corporate, we’ve taken actions to reduce our operating cost as well. Year-to-date, we’ve taken out $436 million through simplification efforts at corporate headquarters, GGO and reductions in our social costs. For the year, we expect to deliver more than the $500 million target we established at the start of the year. As Jeff said, industrial segment op profit is up 10% year-to-date. When you look at industrial including corporate, operating profit was up 17% year-to-date, 19% in the quarter. This excludes the investments we’ve made in restructuring net of gains and the MBCU income we had in 2013. So I’ll start with the segment summaries, first, power and water. Orders in the quarter of $6.4 billion were higher by 9%, equipment orders were up 8% driven by strong renewables up 42% partially offset by distributed power down 32% and thermal down 8%. Renewables saw strength in Europe, Latin America, and the US despite the later than expected IRS clarification of PTC eligibility. Distributed power continues to see projects push. We booked about 30% of the units that pushed in the second quarter, but saw some projects pushed to the fourth quarter in 2015. We believe all these projects are viable, but are located in tougher regions like Egypt, Libya, Angola and Kazakhstan. Thermal orders were down on four lower gas turbines, but higher on a gigawatt basis driven by the large H class order in the US from Exelon. This brings our total eight units of backlog to 13. We now expect total year gas turbine unit orders to be about 105 to 110, versus 125, driven by disruption in the Middle East and some US customers are shifting from F class to H class technology. This shift is required some of our customers to re-permit the sites and has delayed some orders. Service orders in the quarter were up 10%. We had strong orders for upgrades and transactional outage volumes as discussed in the second quarter call. And AGPs in the quarter were 18 versus 15 a year ago. Revenue of 6.4 billion in the quarter was down 2%. With Equipment down 8% and services up 6%. Equipment revenue was driven by distributed power down 35% on 24 fewer units versus last year, partially offset by strong renewables up 18%. Revenue was a little lower than expected, wind units were 150 less than planned driven by late IFRS guidance but we still expect to ship above 3000 units for the year. Distributed power was also lower by about 10 units as projects were delayed. On gas turbine units we’ve shipped 64 units year-to-date and now expect to ship about 105 in the year versus the 85 to 90 we planned. Service revenues in the quarter of $2.9 billion were up 6% on higher AGPs and upgrades. From an operating profit perspective, we were at just shy of $1.2 billion, was down 8% driven by negative price and mix from higher wind and lower distributed power, which more than offset cost benefits including SG&A which was down 10%. Margins were down 110 basis points in the quarter. For the fourth quarter, we expect strong double-digit revenue growth on higher gas turbine shipments, up above 40% and higher wind turbines up above 30% bringing the total year shipments to about 105 on gas turbines and about 3000 wind turbines which is within the original framework. As discussed on the second quarter call, we still expect total year AGPs to be higher and distributed power units to be lower impacted by the delays we discussed previously. In oil and gas, orders at $4.9 billion were up 10%, equipment orders were up 14%, up 20% organically excluding the impact of the Wayne disposition. We had strength in Subsea up 84% with strong Brazilian orders, downstream technology up 64%driven by demand in small-scale LNG, partially offset by DNS which was down 12% in the quarter. Service orders were up 6% where strength in Subsea up 27% and turbo machinery up 8%, partially offset by MNC which was down 8%. Organically, MNC was up 7% with demand for control solutions improving in both industrial and oil and gas applications. Revenues of $4.6 billion grew 7% year-over-year with equipment revenues higher by 9%, and services up 4%. Operating profit of $660 million was up 27%, on strong cost performance, project execution and a positive value gap offset by lower MNC mix. Margin rates expanded in the quarter 240 basis points. Our outlook for the year remains intact for the business with double-digit op profit growth. However, we are moderating our view of orders growth from high single-digits to low double-digits to mid-single-digits. We expect orders to grow in the fourth quarter. As you know orders in the space are very volatile and we continue to see some big projects pushed to the right. Next I’ll do aviation and healthcare, starting with aviation. Travel demand continues to grow with RBK’s August year-to-date up 5.1% domestically, and up 6.3% internationally. Orders for aviation were very strong in the quarter up 30% with equipment orders up 35% and $6.8 billion and services higher by 20%. Equipment strength was led by $3.8 billion of GE 9X orders for Emirates, Etihad and Lufthansa. We also won $1.3 billion of CFM LEAP orders bringing our program today win rate on the next-end narrow bodies to 78%. Military equipment orders were down 40%, but up 3% year-to-date and are on track to be flat for the year. Service orders were driven by strong commercial spares up 29% to $30.9 million a day, partially offset by military spares weakness. Revenues in the quarter is up $5.7 billion were up 6% driven by commercial equipment revenue up 22%, military up 8% and services down 1%. Commercial spares were up 19% offset by military services down 17%. Leverage in the operating profit was strong with 16% growth on better price performance and volume, partly offset by higher GEnx shipments with 65 units in the quarter, up 39 from the third quarter of 2013. SG&A ex-Avio was down 4% in the quarter and margins expanded to 190 basis points. Overall, David and the aviation team delivered a strong quarter, we expect the aviation business to continue to expand its technology leadership. GEnx shipments will be higher in the fourth quarter and we still expect to ship about 300 units for the year. In healthcare, orders were up 1%, with better growth in the US which was up 3%, Europe was up 4% and Latin America was up 18%. This was offset by Japan down 12% and the Middle East down 15% in the quarter. Equipment orders of $2.7 billion were flat on lower Japan and Middle East orders. Our US equipment orders were up 4% driven by very strong imaging and ultrasound orders which were up 10%. We believe the US market was up as well but more modestly. China ACS equipment orders were up 6% in the third quarter and they are up 11% year-to-date. China growth was slower driven by tender decision delays in public hospitals. In Kieran’s business, Life Sciences, equipment orders were strong, up 15% and service orders for healthcare total were up 4%. Revenues in the quarter were up 4% with developed markets up 2% and emerging markets up 11% including China up 10%, Latin America up 30%, and the Middle East up 16%. Op profit grew 9% driven by volume and strong cost productivity offset by negative price. SG&A was down 5% in the quarter. Looking forward we expect US to remain volatile, but our products are performing well. Our position in china is very strong and we believe underlying healthcare demand remains strong in the long run with an aging population, increasing insurance coverage and continued government spend in healthcare. As you heard today, we have a very exciting life sciences business with a unique position. Simplification will continue to transform our cost structure in this business. Next is transportation which had a very strong quarter. Orders in the quarter were up 134% led by equipment orders up three times or $2.1 billion. The business took orders for more than a Tier-4 compliant locomotives to be delivered over the next three years. Locomotive loading is nearing current capacity levels for 2015. Car loads continue to be strong led by agriculture, petroleum and intermodal and network velocity continues to be a challenge. Mining equipment orders remain weak down 38%, transportation service orders were up 8% in the quarter. Revenues were up 10% driven by locomotive volume with units up 49% partially offset by services down 3% on mining weakness. Operating profit was higher by 12% driven by local volume and cost productivity and SG&A was down 5% and that allowed margins to improve 40 basis points in the quarter. We are very pleased with the team’s execution on the Tier-4 loco and expect to continue to fill out our order book for 2016 and 2017 and we feel great about our ability to execute against this order growth. Energy management, the business continues to improve. Our orders in the quarter were down 1% with digital energy down 25%, industrial solutions down 7% on weak European demand and the impact of exiting certain markets and products as part of restructuring. Power conversion was strong, up 30% in the quarter driven by marine. Backlog grew 9%. Revenues up $1.8 billion were down 1%, op profit of $59 million was up three times on strong cost and restructuring execution. And then appliances and lighting, the core industry within appliances was up 9% in the third quarter, retail was up 9% and contract up 7%. Revenue in the quarter was up 1% to $2.1 billion with appliances up 2% and lighting down 2%. Appliance revenue was driven by volume up 3%, while strong LED growth of 59% and lighting was more than offset by traditional product declines. Operating profit of $88 million was higher by 14% on strong productivity and SG&A was down 11% and margins expanded 15 basis points. As we announced in early September, we reached an agreement with Electrolux to sell our Appliance business. We hope to close that transaction in mid-2015. Next I’ll cover GE Capital. As you know, we successfully completed the IPO of 15% of our North American retail finance business, now known as Synchrony Financial. It’s a publicly traded company, CEO, Margaret Keane and the team will host their own investor call later this morning. We continue to make progress on separation efforts and expect the split out to take place towards the end of 2015 subject to regulatory approval. In the meantime, Synchrony will remain consolidated in GE Capital Financials. GE Capital’s revenue of $10.5 billion was down 1%, primarily from lower assets partially offset by higher gains. GE Capital’s net income of $1.5 billion was down 22% principally driven by lower assets which includes minority interest impact resulting from the Synchrony IPO and lower tax benefits. Earnings were affected by the timing of our Nordics consumer platform exit which is previously announced moved from the third to the fourth quarter. E&I of $365 billion was down $19 billion or 5% from last year and down $7 billion sequentially. Non-strategic E&I was down $11 billion or 8% versus last year. Net interest margin in the quarter was 5% which is essentially flat. GE Capital’s Tier-1 common ratio on a Basel-1 basis remains in a strong position and ended the quarter at 12.1%. This is up 40 basis points sequentially and 79 points year-over-year. Our liquidity levels are also strong and we ended the quarter with $80 billion of cash with $15 billion attributable to Synchrony. Our commercial paper program remains stable at $25 billion and we have substantially completed our long-term debt issuance for the year at $9.4 billion. On the right side of the page, asset quality trends continue to be strong and stable. Now I’ll walk through each of the segments. The commercial lending and leasing business ended the quarter with 170 billion of assets flat to last year on book core volume was $10 billion up 5% driven by increases in both the Americas and international. We continued to see strengthening in the US largely in equipment financing with volume up 7%. The team is staying disciplined on pricing and risk hurdles, and the new business returns on both lending and equipment were largely in line with the first half of the year. Earnings of $617 million were up 29% driven by lower marks and impairments primarily in our corporate air book as well as higher gains and tax benefits. The consumer segment ended the quarter with $141 billion of assets, up 4% from last year driven by Synchrony. Net income was $621 million, down 31%. As I mentioned earlier, Synchrony team will cover all the details of their quarter in a call later this morning. Our share of their earnings was $509 million, down 25% net of minority interest and investment in its standalone capabilities. The international consumer business was down as well from the effect of lower assets which were down 16% year-over-year, consistent with last quarter. In real estate assets of $36 billion were down 9% versus prior year. The equity book is down 28% from a year ago to $12 billion. Net income of $175 million was down 62%, primarily from non-repeat of prior year tax benefits. In the current quarter, we sold 72 properties from our real estate equity book with a book value of roughly $0.5 billion for $122 million in gains. In the verticals, GECAS earned $133 million, down 23% from lower assets and tax benefits. Impairments including our annual review completed this quarter resulted in a $197 million after-tax impact, roughly in line with the third quarter of last year. The impairments are driven by value declines in 50 seater regional jets, older-767s and older A320s. Overall, the portfolio is in great shape and we finished the quarter once again with no aircraft on the ground and zero delinquencies. We do not anticipate any updates in the fourth quarter to the GCAS impairment process. New volume was much stronger at $1.4 billion, up 62% with very attractive returns in line with the first half of the year. As Jeff mentioned before, we were excited to announce the Milestone acquisition on Monday. The acquisition combines GCAS global reach and leasing expertise with a growing helicopter financing business that will diversify our business and put our capital to work at good returns. This is in line with GE Capital’s strategy to grow in the mid-market and industrial vertical space where we have deep domain expertise and are competitively advantaged. The deal is expected to close in 2015 pending regulatory approvals. Energy finance earned $61 million, down 59% resulting from lower assets and gains and higher impairments. EFS volume was up strongly at 152% year-over-year at very attractive returns. As you look forward to the fourth quarter, we expect GE Capital to be about $1.8 billion in earnings including the gain from exiting of our Nordics business. However, we continue to aggressive work on opportunities to reduce the size of non-strategic portfolio. And these transactions could impact earnings and tax and the tax rate in the fourth quarter. So overall, Keith and the team continue to execute the portfolio strategy and deliver solid operating results. So with that, I’ll turn it back to Jeff.
Jeffery Immelt:
Thanks, Jeff. We remain on track for a 2014 operating framework. Industrial segment earnings were driven by sustained organic growth and margin expansion and are expected to grow by at least 10% this year. GE Capital is on track with higher earnings in the fourth quarter, due to the timing of the Nordic consumer finance platform sale. Corporate is on track as expected and as expected, corporate has been a drag in 2014 because of restructuring investments exceed gains. However, this will be a real tailwind in 2015. Cash and revenues remain on track and we expect fourth quarter organic revenue to be robust. Despite a volatile global environment, GE expects to have a good fourth quarter and deliver on our 2014 framework. In addition, we are changing the portfolio to position GE for long-term growth. The GE team has done a good job of both strategic and operational execution. With a big backlog, high levels of recurring revenue and a restructuring program already in place,, we believe that GE will deliver for investors in times like these. Now, Matt let’s turn it back over to you and take some questions.
Matthew Cribbins:
All right, thanks, Jeff, Why don’t we open up and take some questions now?
Operator:
(Operator instructions) Our first question comes from Scott Davis. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital:
Hi. Good morning guys.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey Scott
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital:
Appreciate the detail on the presentation. It's really helpful. Guys, I wanted to get your sense, I mean, if you look at the markets, it’s kind of telling you that the world is falling apart, but then we see the numbers here and they look pretty – pretty darn good overall, and overall in the space haven't been that bad. I mean, \what are your customers telling you? I mean, is – are we at a risk of a real pullback in customer activity as we get into the fourth quarter just based on this new growth contagion that‘s out there – this growth fear?
Jeffrey Immelt:
You know, Scott, I just give you a view of the world and again, there is certainly lot going on but I would say, the US is probably the best we’ve seen it since the financial crisis, right, when you look at rail loadings and things like that, you’ve got a decent and healthy US market. Europe is slower for sure. But I think most companies, industrial companies haven’t counted on Europe and Japan for much incremental growth. And then if you go across the emerging markets and I was two weeks ago the Middle East and North Africa still pretty healthy robust. China, I think is more of a micro story then macro story now. Aviation, healthcare very strong, if you are in the right industries, very robust. Mexico better. So if you look at it geographically Scott, I think it’s kind of the slow growth pattern with volatility but a not a lot different than what we’ve seen in the past and then kind of industry-by-industry, Aviation remains strong, transportation remains strong, power, depends on what segments you are in. Or I guess, you definitely have more caution in oil and gas, but I’ve been with a bunch of the CEOs just in the last couple days and the long-term projects I think are still kind of underway. But there is certainly, I would say, there was already caution before the last, I would say, month or so around there. So, I think it fits a pattern that we’ve seen in the last couple of years and the underlying activity is still reasonably healthy but not universal. There are some parts that are clearly stronger than others.
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital:
Okay, fair enough. And just, healthcare, it's kind of unusual for you guys to make a big management change like that in the middle of a quarter or a middle of the year, I should say. The healthcare numbers were pretty good. I mean, what was it, Jeff, that you didn't like about the direction of what’s going on in healthcare that really catalyzed the change there?
Jeffrey Immelt:
You know, Scott, these things were always individual-by-individual. I think, John Dineen was a really good leader here; I think he has got good opportunities as you saw yesterday he has got a nice new assignment and sometimes I just think it works for the individual and for the company. So, again, I think the healthcare business is still a key business for us. But, yes, it gives us a new set of eyes and I think in John’s case, the future makes sense for him as well.
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital:
I normally don't ask three questions, but, what people are asking questions. Why put a non-healthcare, non-domain experienced guy into a business like this? I mean, Jeff, you’ve said in the past that, you really want more domain expertise within the businesses and John is – I think he is very good obviously, but it came it’s a little bit strange to put a non-healthcare guy in charge of the healthcare business. I mean, can you just explain that a little bit and then I’ll pass it on?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Yes, Scott, look, I love Flannery’s global experience. I thought that was outstanding. He has got a great strategic buying to put. He has more experience in healthcare than I had when I became of CEO of healthcare more than 10 years ago. So, I think he has got a nice – really a nice background and has real hands on experience with it outside the United States.
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital:
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks guys.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Yes, thanks, Scott.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley:
Thanks, good morning.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Morning Nigel.
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley:
Yes, so I was quite obviously very pleased to get the detail on Life Sciences – a real gem of an asset. But relatively small in the theme of things, so I am wondering, Jeff, is this a business that you want to grow a bit more aggressively going forward from here?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Well, you know, there is still – maybe I’ll start and then Kieran turn it over to you. I think in the bioprocess manufacturing, we’ve been able to do bolt-on acquisitions behind organic growth and I think that’s been a great GE success factor over time. So, I think that’s falling of those one that we continue to make – get experience with. And then the other side on the diagnostic pharma side, Nigel, that’s more of a heavy R&D side. Right, so I would say, maybe bolt-on acquisitions on the bioprocess manufacturing, maybe some R&D collaborations, but I don’t see a big deal. And now Kieran why don’t I turn it to you?
Kieran Murphy:
Yes, I agree Jeff. Look, I think the prognosis for growth for this business is actually very strong. We have a great portfolio, especially in the bioprocessing space, we’ve done some nice deals here to give ourselves this stuff to finish to the receptor on the pitch and there is no question that with the innovation in medicine moving more towards biology and really strong continued growth in monoclonal antibodies, we are in a great position to serve that market. And of course, if you look at what’s happening in the emerging markets, especially in places like China, and the need for infrastructure, I think our solutions are ideally suited to that. So, I see a greater opportunity for growth. From our standpoint, the GE infrastructure globally gives us such a great reach into the markets, especially as with things like China, the Middle East and Latin America, that the infrastructure of GE gives us a great backbone to actually reach into these markets and do projects in difficult situations.
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley:
Okay, thanks. And then, Jeff, as a follow-on expressing confidence in the 7% organic for the year is obviously encouraging given the headlines, but you clearly have the backlog in place, but you talked about some deferrals into 4Q, maybe 2015, in oil and gas and perhaps power. So I am wondering to what extent that you are concerned that perhaps these delays might push into 2015 and therefore maybe 4Q comes in a bit weaker? So what gives you confidence that GE can get the 7% for the year?
Jeffrey Immelt:
I would talk about – I wanted to – the power stuff is really the hub of – kind of- I guess our confidence and I don’t know, Jeff do you want to?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes, I mean, we have fourth quarter in front of us that we think is kind of be very strong. Just for instance, year-over-year in the fourth quarter, our gas serving shipment is going to be up more than 40% year-over-year. Our wind shipments will be up more than 30% year-over-year. Aero shipments 16%, even commercial and military engines are going to be up mid double-digits and we are looking for a 30% increase in locos year-over-year. So we are looking at a fourth quarter that we think is going to be very strong and we expect the power business to be up substantially in the fourth quarter.
Jeffrey Immelt:
And this stuff – that’s already cited and financed and then backlog and stuff like that.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes, for the most part, most of the gas turbines or 100% of the gas turbines are in backlog, we are in good shape on wind. So a good part of the volume that drives the fourth quarter. We stand pretty firmly on – I would say, as I’ve said before, distributed power is the place where we have seen the most volatility and based on the places we are selling, I think, that’s going to continue to play out that way. But, I think, we feel good about a strong revenue quarter in the fourth quarter.
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley:
That's very helpful and just a quick follow-on to that. So, obviously based on equipment orders, shipments in place for 4Q, normally that would dent margins, but you had service margins up so strong in this quarter. So, I am wondering, can you maybe add some color on where you look for margin in 4Q as well?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
No, we continue to progress on where we expect to continue to progress on margins. We are on this journey to 17 plus percent 2016, we got, we’re 50 basis points up third quarter year-to-date. And we expect to be on that trajectory to get to 17% in 2016. So, we would expect to continue to progress.
Jeffrey Immelt:
I just think tailwinds, the micro stuff, SG&A is good, value gap is good and I think the service productivity actually has good momentum as well.
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley:
Okay. Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
The next question comes from Steven Winoker. Please go ahead.
Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein:
Thanks and good morning.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Steve.
Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein:
Hey, so, maybe just it's been a little while now that you’ve been moving forward with Alstom. How has your thinking continued to progress as the time has passed? We got another quarter of information behind us from Alstom and within your business. Where are you in the process and how are you thinking about the opportunity now versus a few months ago?
Jeffrey Immelt:
You know, Steve, here is what, again, we’re just in the process itself. I think the regulatory stuff is all going per schedule. We haven’t seen anything that is a surprise. They are in the same markets out that you guys see every day. So, some good some bad on that, but, not a big surprise there and I would say synergies, the opportunities for synergies are probably greater than what we would have expected and so we continue to work on that. So, I think, other than that, I don’t really – there is not a lot more color I can add – I’ll do more at the outlook meeting on Alstom. But, I’d say, we still like what we see. We still think there is good potential to run it as a combined entity better.
Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein:
Okay and then, maybe just going – diving a little bit into the order price profile on, Slide 3 obviously it’s pretty positive across most of those segments and then we saw yet another quarter where healthcare was negative and kind of used to that at this point. And obviously, you called out the positives going on in life science. So maybe just continue to give us a little understanding, obviously this must be within systems. And kind of what’s happening? Is there any change here? How the Affordable Care Act you are seeing sort of play out so far? And maybe, are you looking at this thing with a little more of a fresh eye these days, just some thoughts on that front?
Jeffrey Immelt:
You know, I think healthcare has been, everything else being equal reasonably consistent for quite a long period of time. I mean, we have seen quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year equipment pricing in the down 140 basis points, roughly 150 basis points at a point in time. A little bit better on service. But I don’t think we see anything that would suggest that the dynamics around those product cycles, the market behavior, around price is changing. So, we are very focused on winning with technology and gaining share that way and as I said, we had a reasonably for the first time – reasonably strong equipment market here in the US for us up 10%. We don’t think the market was up that. So, we need to win on technology and execution and I think the price dynamics on equipment and imaging are what they are and I don’t see anything changing there.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Steve, there is a little bit that’s of healthcare on the high tech learning curve. So, you get RCM rates are equal to or greater even sometimes when the price is down because we are getting the cost down and the product as well. So, it has the unique – I would say visibility or and compared to some of other products and technologies.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Steve.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
So, you got a big – obviously a big equipment number coming through in the fourth quarter. There will be a bit of a mix impact. I think you gave some color on the margin; it seems like it’s going to be up. Maybe if I just look at normal seasonality, which has been pretty consistent in the last few years and profits, 3Q to 4Q you guys have been up about 37%, 38%. Will you be up similarly in the fourth quarter from an operating profit, industrial profit perspective, so somewhere around low 6 to 6.1 type of number for the fourth quarter or it will be better than normal seasonality?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
No, we expect to be up obviously with the higher volume in the fourth quarter and we expect to continue to build on the cost gains that we’ve had throughout the year both in terms of SG&A and corporate cost. So, we are expecting an increase in profit. We expect to earn more in the fourth quarter for sure and we are expecting strong double-digit revenue growth and we expect to continue to make progress on margins.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Right. So I guess from a – will it be less than the 50 BPS in the fourth quarter year-over-year? I mean it sounds well like the mix is going to be tough.
Jeffrey Immelt:
We have a very heavy equipment quarter in the fourth quarter for sure. But as I said, we expect to make progress on margins for the year. We expect to stay on that trajectory to get the 17 plus percent in 2016. So, the 15 basis points in the third quarter, I would expect those to have a decent year.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Okay and then one last question just on the turbine forecast for next year. You guys have the orders are – sales are a little bit higher; orders are a little bit lower, can you still grow your turbine shipments next year at this stage of the game?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Steve, we’ll give you – when we do the outlook meeting in December, we’ll give you a little bit more color on kind of what we are thinking about 2015. There is also going to be there is starting to be, Steve, a higher mix on big units as well. So, you just will try to spell that all, but you definitely see the market mixing towards the bigger units.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Deane Dray, please go ahead.
Deane Dray – Citigroup:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey Deane.
Deane Dray – Citigroup:
Hey, on Synchrony, the timing of the split-up transaction, I know you are saying late 2015 it depends on regulatory approvals. But, for modeling purposes, what do you suggest that we’d be using?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes, you are right. We’re hopeful that we can get the exchange executed in late 2015. If I were modeling actually, I think I would just model Synchrony in the year and the exchange happening on 1-1 of 2016. We can’t tell you today exactly when in late 2015, I think for modeling purposes, I would have it in for the year.
Deane Dray – Citigroup:
Great, that's helpful. And then showcasing Life Sciences today, we talked a lot about growth. Maybe you can share with us what the returns have been on these investments and I don't know if you can still trace back to the returns on Amersham, but maybe start there?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes, we’ve looked at that. If you go back I believe Amersham was done in 2004, when we go back and look at it, over the last roughly ten years, in this business we’ve collected about $10 billion of cash. Obviously, we had the Amersham investment, we have several other investments along the way. We’ve got order of magnitude $13 billion invested. If you look at business today at a $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion of EBITDA, we think the multiple, if you split it the way Kieran described it, if you think about biopharma and research there is a very multiple of EBITDA based on transactions Merck and others have done. And the Diagnostics business being a lower multiple business, lower growth, lower margin, at 15.5 times those EBITDA numbers you get a total value of – call it 20 – I am sorry, $27 billion, $17 billion is what we got today roughly, $10 billion of cash collected versus the $13 billion we got into it. You get a kind of something like a low teens IRR if you will like today. Now, having said that, we think Kieran has got his business accelerating from here and we are very bullish on the biopharma space and so we think the returns from here forward are going to be more attractive than that. I don’t know if I answered your question.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Jeff Sprague. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Partners:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Partners:
Good morning. Just a couple quick ones. Jeff, you noted the unit outlook is a little cloudier on energy now taken the size of units that are moving up. But, I think the color in the quarter was thermal order dollars were down, but you had higher gigawatts in orders. Can you give us a little bit of color then what is really going on, on new unit pricing and does that imply that these first H units really go out at very, very tough pricing?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Sure, so, it’s heavily dynamic with the H. As we talked about, we’ve got 13 in backlog and we have customers – some customers that are rethinking what otherwise might have been F powered capacity with H cop powered capacity. It is generally speaking it’s one H unit will replace two F units. So, on the pricing front, the initial, these are launch orders, so the initial H orders are going to be tougher, no question about that and we’ll get down the cost curve as quickly as possible. But I think generally speaking, we think the technology has been incredibly well received and where we thought we would be if not better given the early 2014 launch of the technology. So, we feel like we are more competitive. We had a great quarter in the US, it took 11 units.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
I think the other dynamic, Jeff, that I would talk about Jeff is, the mix of regions is probably better. So the US is probably the place where there is the most interest right now. And that has tended to be a slightly better margin type region for us. So, that’s a positive.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Partners:
All right and I am just trying to understand kind of the disconnect between power and water order price up 1.3%.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
I got you, I am sorry, Jeff. Yes, I got it, I am sorry. The H turbines, because they are new, they are not in the OPI number. There is no price to compare to last year.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Partners:
Okay.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
I am sorry. I misunderstood the question.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Partners:
Well, you partially got what I wanted to know too; but, there was a second element implied, so I appreciate that. And then, just on, maybe stepping back to the Milestone deal, maybe I wasn't thinking about at this way, but kind of focusing on the core in GE Capital, I didn't really think that meant M&A was on the table. I thought that was probably more an organic idea. What is your appetite for M&A in Capital moving forward?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
So, Jeff, here is what I’d say, this is a strike zone deal for what we do in GCAS. We know how to do this. It’s an operating lease business. It matches very well with our footprint geographically on where we have resources and operating capabilities deployed. We know how to manage businesses like this that are very asset-intensive and we really like what the returns look like over time. It also lines up like GCAS does with our aviation business. So a very high percentage of this portfolio, our GE powered helicopters and we think that provides a lot of synergy. So, we’ve been – I think reasonably consistent saying that we were going to continue to grow our core mid-market and industrially aligned verticals as we move forward and at the same time, we are very aggressively working the $135 billion of non-strategic parts of the portfolio and we’ve got a lot of things in motion there. So, I think, the other way you need to think about it a bit is, we’ve got capital available and we’d rather deploy the capital at very attractive returns than to put the capital to work in a bank at a negative carry. So, I think this makes all the sense in the world and I don’t think in anyway is that inconsistent with anything we or Keith have communicated.
Operator:
Thank you and our next question comes from John Inch, please go ahead.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just given these puts and takes in Power & Water between orders and heavy shipments and I know there is a – it’s got such a big influence on cash flow, Jeff Bornstein, are we thinking that operating cash for the year is going to be kind of towards the lower end of the $17 billion or is it close to call?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Today, – as we sit here today, I would say we expect to be about the midpoint of the range. So we’ve got a big fourth quarter in front of us, no question about it. If you think about last year we did $5.5 billion of CFOA industrial in the fourth quarter based on the earnings improvement what we expect to get from a working capital improvement by liquidating all that inventory. In the fourth quarter, we think we’ve got to pass to be about mid-point of the range between $14 billion and $17 billion.
Jeffrey Immelt:
We would have much higher industrial earnings, John, and much higher shipments. So we ought to have a good fourth quarter, I’d say on cash.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Okay and then FX, one of the dynamics at GE that makes you different is just you carry high value of your equipment versus other industrial companies. So, it could be for either of you, I mean, does FX and the decline of the euro and the yen, does that open a door to Mitsubishi and Siemens really to become much more aggressive on the OE pricing that could influence sort of the dynamic going forward? How are you thinking about it based on if anything known so far?
Jeffrey Immelt:
I’d say, listen, a great part of our industrial footprint here is that we make protocol over the world. So, we can be flexible, but where we make product, if FX becomes that big an issue, we can be flexible about where we make products. So I don’t think we are anticipating FX being a competitive issue for us.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
I would echo that, John, I think the dynamic is really one where we’ve got the right global footprint to do whatever ultimately we need to do.
Operator:
And our last question comes from Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes, good morning.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hi, Andrew.
Andrew Obin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi, just a question. You sort of highlighted H turbines being successful and some of your customers really looking into them, but you also said that it requires some re-permitting. How disruptive could it be and could we see a pause in North American cycle because of that?
Jeffrey Immelt:
No, as you know, I think, in North America, I think a lot of that planning is already underway. So I would say Andrew not much. I think the whole product line is well positioned and it’s great to have a large block of turbines. But we also are still seeing activity on the other turbines as well. So, I think, other than the 13, we’ve got another 15 Hs that are out there kind of being globally which should enter the backlog sometime eminently and so, we are just seeing pretty good momentum there and I don’t see it disrupting the – let’s say the flow from commitment to order to revenue.
Andrew Obin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure, now quickly if I could just squeeze one more in. Measurement and Control, could you just give us a little bit more color? How it’s improving and where we are on the call within that division?
Jeffrey Immelt:
So the organic, we’ve done some dispositions there, Andrew. So, I think the organic is up mid-single-digits kind of range 7% something like that.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes.
Jeffrey Immelt:
And so, we’ve seen that be pretty decent in the last quarter.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
So, I would say, excluding the disposition impacts, the M&C businesses has start to turn a little bit organically. Orders in the third quarter were up 7%, revenue was – I said in the script were up 8% and they are getting some operating leverage. And so, we’ve seen a little bit of more strength in oil and gas applications and industrial applications around controls. And so we are hopeful that we are trending more positively here in the M&C business as you know that’s important, it’s a very profitable business for oil and gas.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Matt, I want to just
Matthew Cribbins:
Sure.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Before we cut off today, I think we talked a lot about execution in the quarter, but I wanted to elevate just a bit. We really remain on track to get the company at 75% industrial, 25% GE Capital, while growing EPS every year, this year next year and into the future. And I think in addition to the good execution in the quarter, the strategic moves the company continues to make to – with Alstom, Appliances, remixing GE Capital continues to make this a more valuable company. So I think that’s an addition to the current quarter operations. I think we are executing on the portfolio to create a much more valuable company.
Matthew Cribbins:
Great, thank you, Jeff. Couple of quick announcements. The replay of today’s webcast will be available this afternoon on our website. We will be distributing our quarterly supplemental data for GE Capital later today. We have two upcoming investor events. The first on Tuesday December 16 we will hold our Annual Outlook Meeting in New York City and on Friday, January 23, we’ll hold our fourth quarter 2014 earnings webcast. As always we will be available today to take your questions. Thank you
Operator:
Thank you ladies and gentlemen. This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Matt Cribbins – VP, Investor Communications Jeff Immelt - Chairman and CEO Jeff Bornstein - SVP and CFO Steve Bolze - VP, Power and Water
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research John Inch - Deutsche Bank Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Deane Dray - Citi Research Andrew Obin - Bank of America Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the General Electric Second Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Christine and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matt Cribbins:
Thank you, Christine. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. We are pleased to host today second quarter webcast. Regarding the materials for this webcast, we issued the press release, presentation and GE supplemental earlier this morning on our website at www.ge.com/investor. As always, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change as the world changes. Please interpret them in that light. For today’s webcast, we have our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; our Senior Vice President and CFO, Jeff Bornstein, and our Vice President Power and Water Steve Bolze. We’ve asked Steve to join today to talk about the Alstom deal. Now I’d like to turn it over to our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt.
Jeff Immelt:
Great, Matt, thanks, good morning everyone. GE had a good quarter in a generally improving environment. We saw a solid economic growth across most of our segments. Some economic indicators are really quite strong like rail loadings, revenue passenger miles, demand for commercial credit and appliance market strengthened during the quarter. Global markets were also generally positive. GE ended the quarter with a record backlog of $246 billion. A particular highlight was the payback of our investments in technology. We recorded $36 billion of wins at the Farnborough Airshow, transportation is prospering because of our commitments to push ahead with the Tier 4 locomotives, healthcare is gaining share behind several big product launches, in oil and gas the same broad interest to new subsea innovations. There are still a few tough markets like U.S. healthcare and mining but the economic trend is positive. At the half execution is in line with our key goals, industrial segment growth is up 10% with 6% organic revenue growth and margin expansion of 30 basis points. We're on track for $7 billion of capital earnings with the $3 billion dividend, capital allocation remains balanced and discipline, we've returned $5.9 billion to investors through dividends and buyback, we're improving the GE portfolio as well. The Alstom acquisition will generate attractive growth and returns while helping GE to accelerate our achievement of 75% industrial earnings. Retail finance remains on track for an IPO by the end of July. The GE team is executing both operationally and strategically. Orders grew by 4% with slightly positive pricing, backlog is at a record high as I said of $246 billion, up $23 billion from last year. This was the strongest service performance in several years with growth of 14%, aviation spares grew by 16% and power gen services grew by 13%. Most of our service businesses are expanding. Transportation orders were up close to 40% overall and we positioned the business to succeed in the future. We experienced some equipment order push outs particularly in wind and oil and gas and subsea however our rolling four quarter equipment growth is up 7% and growth markets remain a highlight with 14% order expansion and growth in six of nine regions. Our orders and backlog give us confidence in the second half and 2015. Our operating execution was good, we have 7% revenue growth in the quarter with 20 basis points of margin expansion. We are gaining share. Farnborough made a statement about GE’s position in aviation with $36 billion in wins. We won nearly 90% of all next gen narrow body announcements. As was reported earlier in the week, GE remained substantially ahead on the Tier 4 locomotive. We have 264 Tier 4 locos in backlog for 2015 and ‘16 with more on the way and this was zero in the first quarter, so our momentum is growing. We have nine high efficiency large block H turbines in backlog with many more in the pipeline. In oil and gas, we sold the first 20k-psi drilling system to Maersk. We have $55 million backlog for the industry leading Revolution CT scanner. For the quarter, equipment revenue grew by 8% and service revenue grew by 5% and six of nine growth regions expanded in the quarter. In addition, a few of our adjacencies are performing quite well. Life Sciences had order growth of 10% while Water grew by 11% and we now expect $1.3 billion of productivity revenue for ’14, slightly ahead of our operating plan. Simplification and value gap continue to drive margins; we are reducing the structural cost of GE. For the year simplification, value gap and R&D efficiency should continue to be positive. In addition, we saw nice margin turnaround in energy management and appliances and lighting while transportation and health care are growing margins despite tough markets. We will continue to be negatively impacted by equipment mix for the year but we are on track for solid margin improvement in 2014 overall with expansion in most of our businesses. And in the quarter, six of our seven industrial segments had earnings growth. So, really a good execution quarter. Our capital allocation is in line with plan. Total CFOA is $3.4 billion, down 9% year-to-date, industrial CFOA is above last year’s total but below if you add back the impact of the NBCU taxes last year. CFOA is impacted by timing and long cycle orders in wind, driven by the lack of PTC clarity and in oil and gas. Additionally, we have more inventory for second half shipments, given the substantially higher organic revenue growth we expect in 2014 versus 2013. We'll see strong improvement in working capital in the third quarter and second half. As previously communicated, we expect the capital dividend to be about $3 billion in 2014. We ended the quarter with $87 billion of cash and we expect CFOA for 2014 to be in the $14 billion to $17 billion range as outlined in our 2014 framework. We have a similar first half, second half profile that we had in ‘13. Capital allocation continues to be disciplined and balanced. We have raised the dividend by 16% for ’14; we have filed the red herring for RFS today, targeting a late July IPO. And this should raise roughly $3.1 billion at the midpoint price for 15% of the company. And we are targeting $4 billion of dispositions for the year. In an important move for GE the Alstom deal is announced and signed targeting a 2015 close. This is an exciting opportunity for GE and our investors. By 2016, we expect this will add $0.06 to $0.09 per share and allow the company to have 75% of our earnings from industrial. The synergies and returns are excellent. And Steve Bolze is here this morning to give you an update on Alstom. So let me turn it over to Steve.
Steve Bolze:
Thanks Jeff. We've had a lot going on with respect to the Alstom transaction. And I wanted to update you on the deal, our revised structure and our execution plans. As you recall from our initial announcement on April 30th, the acquisition of Alstom's power and grid businesses would represent a largest single acquisition in GE's history. At the time we said it was subject to several reviews including our discussions with the French government. Those discussions have led now to our revised offer. We are happy with the outcome and have the unanimous recommendation of the Alstom Board and the endorsement of the French government. A key point that I would like to stress is the deal economics remain the same and the price did not go up. Our deal is $13.5 billion of enterprise value at 7.9 times EBITDA and Alstom still retains its transport business. We have however revised the initial deal structure in payment terms. We will be selling our signaling business to Alstom transport and creating three joint ventures. GE will have operational control in these joint ventures and Alstom will be investing about $3.5 billion for its stakes. I will give further details on the ventures in a moment. Although the structure has been modified our strategic rationale has not changed. The power sector is core to GE’s future and it has excellent long-term growth prospects. Alstom Power and Grid are businesses we know and like and are being acquired at a good time in the cycle. What we like the most about Alstom is it complements us in technology, geography and they have great talent. It brings us broader scope and power, a larger installed base for services growth and larger presence in emerging markets. Together with GE this creates opportunities to improve our combined performance and it’s in our sweet spot. Also we continue to see good cost synergy opportunities and our plans remain intact. Overall, this is an attractive investment in a core business which expands our competitive capabilities and is accretive to GE earnings in year one with high teens IRR. On the next page I want to ground you on the new deal structure. First, the changes do not impact the core businesses, which are Alstom’s thermal assets. We will still own close to 100% of Alstom’s gas and steam equipment and service businesses. About 86% of our synergies are in these businesses. With respect to the joint ventures Alstom will be the investor but GE will have operational control and we still have clear visibility to the remaining synergies. The first JV is renewables. It’s made up of Alstom’s offshore wind and leading hydro business as well as some of thier new renewable technologies. GE and Alstom will each own 50% of this joint venture, onshore wind from Alstom will go directly into GE at 100%. The second JV is the combination of GE's digital energy business and Alstom’s grid business. GE and Alstom will each own 50% of the joint venture. And the third joint venture is global nuclear and French steam. We knew all along that with the majority of electricity generation in France being from nuclear power there would be nuclear sovereignty issues. This venture includes Alstom’s production and servicing equipment for conventional island of nuclear power plants and development in sales of related new equipment globally. It also includes Alstom’s steam turbine equipment and servicing applications for France. In this joint venture, GE will own 80% of the economics and Alstom 20%. But Alstom will still have 50% of the voting interests. The sovereignty issues are address through a preferred share held by the French State with certain governance rights. In each JV, GE has control, will appoint the CEO and expects to consolidate. Alstom will have standard minority governance rights and will have put options with the minimum four value at the fine time. These joint ventures will not impact or ability to achieve our synergies. On top of these ventures one additional transaction that we agreed to sell our signaling business, a part of GE transportation. It's a good deal for both parties. We got a good price rate, a market multiple and it is a business that will do better as part of a larger signaling business that Alstom has. In addition to that, we will enter into a collaboration agreement for both services and commercial activities that should make both GE and Alstom’s transportation businesses more successful. As for our presence in France and Europe, after Alstom’s businesses join the GE family we expect to have over 100,000 employees in Europe. We have agreed to add 1,000 new jobs in France have factored this commitment into our financial plans. In addition we have committed to keeping grid, hydro offshore wind and stream turbine headquarters in France. In summary the dealer returns remain unchanged, there will be 3.5 billion less cash invested upfront and a $0.01 to $0.02 reduction in EPS accretion. So now let’s look at our plans for execution. We still see 300 million in year one synergies growing to 1.2 billion in year five. We expect to realize 80% of the 1.2 billion in synergies by the third year. There are four main categories for synergies the first is optimizing the manufacturing and services footprints. The combined businesses have 16 major manufacturing sites and many more feeder sites. And about 70 service sites across the globe. We estimate roughly 400 million of our savings here over the period. Second, leveraging the combined sourcing by to increase, productivity we have approximately 5 billion in common spend that we believe we can realize about 5% savings on. This is very consistent with our experience when we bought EGT from Alstom in 1999. The third area is combining our R&D efforts across the product lines, then lastly by consolidating supporting functions across SG&A we see the ability to get about 10% synergy here across the combined businesses. We expect to spend approximately 900 million over the first five years to realize the 1.2 billion of cost savings. Beyond the $1.2 billion, we have assumed some modest revenue synergies, but see the potential for more upside. The teams have started to work to develop these additional growth opportunities. The current plan should drive $0.06 to $09 of EPS accretion in 2016, assuming a mid 2015 close. We have now kicked off for integration planning with Alstom, so we can hit the ground running when the approval process is complete. This will be a broad GE effort spanning many parts of the company. We have appointed Mark Hutchinson, our overall GE integration leader. Mark is a GE officer with broad global experience and was most recently our CEO of China. We have formed a joint GE Alstom steering committee and had our first meeting last week in Paris. From here, the process for closing will include works council consultations, Alstom shareholder approval and customary regulatory reviews driving an expected closing in mid 2015. Overall, we are excited about the acquisition. We are confident in our ability to execute and we have a proven and experienced integration team now in place to ensure success. With that, I want to hand it over to Jeff Bornstein.
Jeff Bornstein:
Thanks Steve. I’ll start with the second quarter summary here. We had revenues of $36.2 billion, up 3% from the second quarter of 2013. Industrial sales of $26.2 billion were up 7% and GE Capital revenues of $10.2 billion were down 6%. Operating earnings of $3.9 billion were up 7% and operating earnings per share of $0.39 were up 8%. Continuing the EPS of $0.35 includes the impact of non-operating pension and net EPS includes the impact of discontinued operations. We had $41 million charge in the quarter in discops, primarily $30 million from WMC. WMC pending claims were down $700 million in the quarter and litigation claims were $1.3 billion higher. Reserves of $550 million are essentially flat versus the prior quarter with the slightly higher coverage of potential losses. As Jeff said, CFOA year-to-date was $3.4 billion. We added industrial CFOA of $2 billion and received $1.4 billion of dividends from GE Capital. Industrial CFOA was up 12% reported and down 41% excluding the impact of 2013 MBCU tax payments. This is driven by timing of orders and inventory build and was still on track for the $14 billion to $17 billion CFOA range that we guided for the year. The GE tax rate for the quarter was 19%, up from 17% last year bringing the year-to-date rate to 21%. As previously communicated, we expect the full year industrial rate to be above 20%. The GE Capital tax rate of a negative 13% was principally driven by the announced consumer Nordics disposition. The tax benefits from this transaction are anticipated to be higher than what we had planned for and with that we now expect a low single-digit tax rate for the full year. We recorded roughly $260 million of tax benefits in the second quarter to bring the year-to-date rate in line with the expected lower full year rate. On the right side, you can see the segment results. Strong top-line growth of the industrial segment’s revenues up 7% and operating profit growth up 9%. GE Capital earnings were down 5% in the quarter on lower assets. Per our previous communication, the GE Capital results now include the impact of preferred stock dividends. For the quarter that was approximately a $160 million versus a $135 million in 2Q, ‘13. I’ll cover the dynamics of each of the segments on the following pages. First, I’ll cover other items for the quarter. We had $0.03 of restructuring and other charges at corporate, about $0.02 of that related to ongoing industrial restructuring and other items as we continue to invest in simplification to improve the industrial cost structure. The spend was broad-based with projects in every business in corporate. We were executing on approximately 145 projects that average a year and half payback. We also had a $0.01 one-time charge related to the write-off of an asset in our consolidated nuclear joint venture. We took 51% of the impact related to that write-off and our partners took the remainder. Offsetting the restructuring, we booked a gain related to the disposition of Wayne fuel dispensers business in oil and gas. We recorded a pre-tax gain at corporate of $90 million related to that transaction. The net impact of these two items was a $0.02 charge. So to give some context, the gain came in about a $100 million lower than expected. Our restructuring spend of $300 million pre-tax also came in about a $100 million lower than planned. This was due to lower spend of about $70 million needed to execute the existing projects and some delays attributable to works councils for roughly $35 million. In addition to the ongoing restructuring spend we had the one-time charge related to the nuclear asset write-off. So restructuring and other charges net gains of $0.02, ended up being a higher expense that we planned in the quarter. Now I’ll take you through the segment starting with Power and Water. Orders of $6.3 billion were up 6%, equipment orders were down 1% with distributive power down 32%, thermal down 9% and renewables up 60%. The decrease in distributive power was attributable to the timing of orders in the emerging markets that we expect to close in the second half. Thermal orders were lower on gas turbine orders, 10 versus 24 a year ago, partially offset by more BOP orders for balance plan. First half gas turbine orders were 41 versus 32 a year ago. No change to our framework for a 125 gas turbine orders for the year. In the second quarter, we booked our first [H] gas turbine order for cogen application in Russia but we expect to ship that unit in 2015. Service orders were up 12% driven by PGS up 13% and strong demand for upgrades and parts. We expect a reasonably strong transactional outage season in the second half of the year. We booked 19 AGPs in the quarter versus 12 a year ago. Revenue in the quarter was higher by 10% to 6.3 billion, growth was driven by equipment up 20% and services up 2%. Equipment revenue was driven by thermal up 38% on two more gas turbines versus last year and higher BOP up 38%. Wind equipment revenues were up 30% with 159 more wind turbines year-over-year. Thermal and wind growth was partly offset by lower distributed power growth which shipped 41 units this year versus 55 a year ago. Our profit of 1.1 billion was up 4% driven by volume and simplification benefits offset by negative mix principally higher BOP and wind shipments. Product line mix was 2.4 points of a margin drag in the quarter. SG&A was down 7% in the quarter. Our outlook for the business for the total year has not changed. At the moment we are likely to be stronger on AGPs than we planned but may see some distributed power volume push. Gas and wind turbines remain within the framework we have shared with you. Now for oil and gas orders were up 5% in the quarter to 5.3 billion equipment orders were down 9% versus a very strong second quarter in ‘13 when equipment was up 42%. Turbomachinery was down 42% versus up 74% last year. Subsea was down 44% versus up 30% a year ago. Downstream technology up 85% on strong petrochemical demand and drilling and service up 55% were strong in the quarter. Drilling received a large order for our new 20,000 PSI drilling system, the first in the industry for Maersk and BP. The 20,000 PSI capability makes ultradeep offshore drilling possible in areas unavailable today. So, we're quite excited about the progress there. Service orders are strong up 23% with Turbomachinery higher by 49% on increased upgrades insulations and transactional services. Downstream technology was up 35% and MNC was up 1%. MNC was up 19% excluding the impact of the [Wayne and Santis] dispositions. Revenues of $4.8 billion were up 20% by equipment strength up 29% with subsea up 51% and Turbomachinery up 15%. Service revenues were higher by 11% versus the second quarter of last year. Operating profit was up 25% on higher volume positive value gap and strong productivity offset partially by negative mix from subsea growth. Margin rates in the quarter improved 50 basis points. On the next page Aviation. Demand for travel continued its strong growth, year-to-date May. Revenue passenger kilometers globally were up 6.2% with strength across all regions. Freight grew 4.4% May year-to-day. Orders in aviation were up 1% with equipment down 8% driven as we expected by commercial engine is down 27%, our lowest CFM orders in a non-repeated the FedEx CF6 order from last year. This was partially offset by stronger international military orders. Service orders were 13% higher with spare parts orders -- the spare parts orders rate up 16% to $28.4 million a day. As Jeff mentioned at the Farnborough Airshow, we won 312 LEAP engines on the Boeing bags. We also won 520 LEAP engines on the Airbus A320neo versus a 100 to the competition. For the A320neo program to-date we've won 54% of the engines. And in 2015 year-to-day the LEAP is on 67% of the engines on the A320neo. Overall since the launch, the LEAP engine has won 77% of all narrow body competitions. Operationally in the quarter revenues were higher by 15%, equipment revenues were also up 15% driven by commercial engines up 14% and military engines up 3%. We shipped 75 GEnx engines versus 33 a year ago in the quarter. Services revenue was up 15% with strength in commercial services partly offset by military services. Operating profit in the quarter was 12% driven by higher volume positive value gap offset by negative mix associated with the GEnx shipments and higher R&D spend in the quarter. Operating profit margins of 19.7% was down 40 basis points in the quarter. Through the half margins are up 20 basis points. Overall Dave George and the aviation team continues to execute and win and we expect the technology investments we’ve made and continue to make will sustain the momentum. Next healthcare. Healthcare in the second quarter was again soft in the U.S. as we expected. In-patient volumes were weak which in conjunction with increased consumer resume and the changes in the Healthcare Law appear to be causing hospitals and the clinics continue to be cautious on the new investments. Orders for the business of $4.8 billion were flat with emerging markets up 7% led by Latin America up 12% and China up 12%, offset by the U.S. down 2%. Equipment orders were flat with HCS down 4% offset partially by life sciences up 23%, up 5% organically. Service orders were up 1%. Backlog of $16.6 billion was 6% higher than a year ago. Revenues were flat with developed markets down 2% and emerging markets up 7% with strength in China, Latin America and the Middle East. Operating profit was up 1% with strong cars productivity offset by negative value gap and FX. SG&A ex acquisitions was down 8% in the second quarter. Our profit margins improved 10 basis points, up 60 basis points organically. For the second half, we expect the market dynamics to be similar to the first half with weakness in the U.S., but continued growth in life sciences and the growth regions. The business will continue to deliver on remaking the cost structure. And we expect that healthcare will grow earnings single-digits for the year. Next, talk about transportation, the transportation team continues to execute well in a pretty tough environment. Domestic activity continues to improve though, carloads in the U.S. were up 4% for the first half driven by intermodal, petroleum and a very strong grain shipments and even coal saw 30 basis points of growth as post winter stockpiles a replenished. Higher volume in conjunction with the first quarter whether effect have impacted velocity on the lines. As a result, part locos are at their lowest levels since 2007, 2008. We have seen increased orders activity in locos. At the beginning of the year, we communicated that we expected to ship about 600 units in '14. We now expect that that shipment number to be closer to 750 plus. Balancing that, mining volume for both units and parts are week. We guided an expectation of being down almost 50% in 2014 versus '13 and now expect mining to be slightly weaker than that. Orders for the quarter were up 35% with equipment growth of 40% and service growth of 32%. Equipment strength was driven by North American locomotives including our first order for 39 Tier 4 locos for delivery in 2015. Service orders were driven by locomotive parts and $125 million signaling went in Singapore. Backlog of 15.9 billion grew 13% from the second quarter of last year driven by equipment up 51%. Revenues in the quarter were down 18%, equipment was down driven by mining down 43% and lower loco and kit deliveries. Service revenue was down on weak mining parts partially offset by core services and loco parts. Our profit down 14% was driven by lower volume partially offset by positive value gap and cost out. SG&A was down 14% in the quarter. Operating margins improved 110 basis points on strong cost management. Our total year expectations for transportation remain intact with better locomotive demand and deliveries offsetting slightly worse mining experience and the 50% down we expected. We feel good about our momentum on locomotives and are experiencing high utilization of our plants in 2014. Based on the first of market Tier 4 solution and improved rail volumes, we are optimistic that customers will continue to place orders in and for 2015. Now energy management, the business took a couple of steps forward in the quarter but still remains very much a work in progress. Orders were down 14% in the quarter partly driven by no repeat of the big ComEd meter order last year in digital energy. As a result digital energy orders were down 32% but up 26% excluding the ComEd order. Industrial solution was down 8% on slow demand in North America and the exit as part of restructuring of seven subscale international platforms. Power conversion saw a number of marine orders push into second half. Backlog continues to grow up 12% year-over-year. Revenue in the quarter was down 6%. Our profit more than doubled from last year to $69 million and margin rates improved to [$110] basis points. The team is doing a great job executing the restructuring strategies including reducing rooftops by 40%, simplifying their product structures and realigning their SG&A functions. Restructuring benefits are delivering productivity that more than offsets the negative volume. We expect energy management to continue its improvement trajectory. Appliances core industry was up 5% the second quarter with contract up 8% and retail up 4%. Housing starts rebounded up 9%, helping volumes in the quarter and single family starts grew 5%, multifamily starts grew 18% in the quarter. Revenue in the quarter was flat with appliances flat and lighting down 1% Appliance revenue was down 1 point on volume, but up 1 point on price. We read a number of promotional events that drove improvement during the quarter with revenue down 5% in April, up 1% in May and up 5% in June. So the trajectory is correct. Lighting revenue was down 1% with strong LED growth of 50% offset by 9% down on traditional products as retails continue to bleed off incandescent inventories. Op profit of $102 million was up 23% on positive value gap and productivity. SG&A in the quarter was down 4% and op profit rate improved 90 basis points in the quarter. Next is GE Capital. Revenue of $10.2 billion was down 6%, primarily from lower assets and lower gains. Assets were down 2% or $10 billion year-over-year. GE Capital's net income of $1.7 billion which includes $161 million of preferred dividend payment was down 5% on a comparable basis, as impact from lower earning assets and gains more than offset lower losses marks and impairments and higher tax benefits. E&I of $371 billion was down $19 billion or 5% from last year and down $2 billion sequentially. Non-core E&I was down 15% to $51 billion versus last year. Net interest margins in the quarter of 5% were essentially flat. GE Capital's liquidity and capital levels continue to be strong. We ended the quarter with $76 billion of cash and Tier 1 common ratio on a Basel 1 basis improved 28 basis points sequentially and 51 basis points year-over-year to 11.7%. On the right side of the page, asset quality trends continue to be stable, the only exception being the seasonality we expect in UK mortgage but delinquencies in UK mortgage portfolio are actually down a 160 basis points year-over-year. Now to walk through each of the segments. In CLL, commercial lending and leasing business ended the quarter with $174 billion of assets, flat to last year. On book core volume was $11 billion, down 3%, driven by the Americas which was down 4%. But we do see pockets of strength in the U.S., largely in equipment financing with our transportation business up 25%, vendor equipment leasing up 7% and our fleet business up 6%. Volume in CLL international was up 3%. The team is staying disciplined on pricing and risk hurdles and the new business returns were about 1.8%, roughly in line with the first quarter. Earnings of $541 million were down 34%, driven by lower tax benefits from the non-repeat of last year’s fleet candidate disposition and tax benefits we had in Europe as well as lower assets. These were partially offset by improvement in losses marks and impairments. The consumer segment ended the quarter with a $135 billion of assets, flat to last year. Earnings of $472 million were down 43%, driven by lower international assets which were down 12%, year-over-year including the impacts of the Swiss IPO and BAY Thailand sale. In the current quarter, we also recorded roughly $85 million of after tax loss provisions as a result of recent legislation on consumer pricing in Hungary. North American retail finance earned $512 million in the quarter, down 9% driven by continued investment in its standalone capabilities partially offset by 9% growth in its earning assets. Real-estate assets of $37 billion were down 11% versus prior year and down $1 billion sequentially. The equity book is down 26% from a year ago to 13 billion. Net income of 289 million was down 34% primarily from lower level of tax benefits and gains. In the current quarter, we saw 52 properties for the book value were above $420 million for $137 million in gain that's down $65 million from last year. The verticals GECAS earned 343 million up 13% is lower impairments and higher gains offset the impact of lower assets which were down 9%. New volume was 1.5 billion, up [17%] with attractive returns of above 3% ROI's and we ended the quarter with zero aircraft on the ground. Energy finance had a good quarter with earnings up 27% to $76 million driven by core income and lower level of loss and impairments. As I mentioned earlier, the tax rate at GE Capital is negative for the quarter and that was driven by the plan order transaction with 260 million of tax-to-up being both for the GE Capital Corporate. Excluding the tax-to-up the GE Capital tax rate would have been in the low-single-digits for the quarter. As you look forward in the third quarter, we expect GE Capital to be about, be around about 1.6 billion in earnings. Overall Keith and the team continue to execute the portfolio strategy and deliver solid operating results. The Nordics dispositions which we expect to complete in the third quarter and the IPO of retail finance which I'll cover on the next page, are major steps from further reducing GE Capital's consumer footprint and focusing on the commercial core. So we're announcing today that we're targeting the IPO of our North American retail finance business for the end of July we will be putting out a prospectus of a red hearing later this morning. We're limited to what we can say during the IPO process but we're pleased to be at the final stages of the IPO. We're targeting a 15% offering for about 3.1 billion at the mid-point of the price range. There is a potential additional 2.25% for the Green Shoe. As we said in the past the capital raise will remain within Synchrony to enhance its standalone capital and liquidity levels. There will be 1.5 billion of funded transitional financing from GE Capital. This is down from our previous estimate of about 3 billion. The team has been doing a lot of work to strengthen their standalone capabilities on capital liquidity and governance. You may have seen that S&P and Fitch publish their investment grade ratings earlier this week for Synchrony. We are targeting the split off in late 2015 subject to regulatory reviews and approvals. Assuming a $3 billion IPO from 15% we would retain an approximately $70 billion position in Synchrony. There are a lot of variables and the GE share count reduction will be dependent on the price of GE and Synchrony shares at the time of the split. We are still targeting 9.5 billion or less shares with this transaction. The process in on track and we’ll update you along the way. With that I will pass it back to Jeff.
Jeff Immelt:
We have no change for the operating frame work for 2014, we expect double digit industrial operating profit growth behind solid organic growth and margin expansion. GE Capital earnings were on track for $7 billion excluding the impact of the preferred dividend. We will hit our simplification goals including a $500 million reduction in corporate expense we plan for restructuring to exceed gains which is a drag on 2014 -- benefit 2015 and beyond. Our CFOA and revenue remain on track. In fact I would say organic growth in probably closer to the high end of the range. We continue to move the company forward strategically. Our long-term investments in technology are really paying off with solid share gains and with the retail finance IPO and Alstom acquisition we are broadly reshaping the company. I am proud of the GE team’s ability to execute so well strategic and operationally on so many fronts and we're well-positioned for the future. So Matt, now back to you and let's take some questions.
Matt Cribbins:
Thanks. Christine, let's open it up for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Scott Davis of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
Hi, good morning guys.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey Scott.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
Thorough presentation, so I appreciate that. I guess since we've got Steve there, I think just some logistical questions on Alstom. I mean did they still, I mean how do you keep the price from falling apart, I guess from now until you close it? I mean did they still bid on projects and compete against you till your close? Do you have some any control or oversight of how operations -- how things are run between now and then, because it's going to be a little while till everything gets approved?
Steve Bolze:
Scott, listen we are two separate companies and we'll be through closing. As we said we have an integration planning effort that we have now kicked off, but we have a process that we have to go through works council approval to have a shareholder review and we have all the various regulatory steps to go through. So at this point, Scott they are separate, in some areas we do compete. But as I mentioned earlier these companies are largely complementary, complementary towards the geography, technology and it's a company we obviously know. And as you know Scott back in 1999 we bought the packaging business that was EGT that came to us and some of our best leaders came from that. But in the short term we are separate and they are under their control.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
Okay, understood. And then couple of a niche here. I mean is there - when you think about Synchrony, is there and this is for Jeff and Jeff. But are there any structural or tax reasons why this business can’t be sold in the process or post the IPO versus spun?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes, Scott. I mean the reason we focus and we’re heading down the path on the split is that it’s very tax efficient for shareholders. So there is real value creation in doing the split offer, shares versus selling the business outright.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
Okay. Fair enough. And then just lastly, there is a lot of chatter on M&A in the space. I mean there is pressure points out there on Siemens and Dresser, does Alstom really cut you guys out at being able to go after some of the stuff if it becomes optimistic and you have white knight type scenario with Dresser? I mean it’s a fairly unique asset. I mean could you -- I don’t think I am asking you to comment just specifically on Dresser but on an overall basis, does Alstom really keep you out of the market or do you feel like you could still go in there and if need be issue equity or be creative about how to finance it?
Jeff Immelt:
Yes, Scott. What I would say is on -- in our oil and gas business, we feel like we’ve got a great coverage in terms of where we are right now. We really don’t have any changes today on how we think about capital allocation and things like that. But look, we’re always looking at the portfolio in terms of additional divestitures and things that we can do progressively inside the company. We’re not done with that yet. And that can open up new capital allocation options. But we’re really not -- we really today -- our focus is on -- our near-term focus is on the Alstom integration and doing a great job with that.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
Okay, good answer. Thanks guys and good luck.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks.
Jeff Bornstein:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Julian Mitchell of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse:
Hi, thanks.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey Julian.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse:
Hey. Just had a question on the healthcare business. You talked back in December about how you might get close to 10% profit growth this year in healthcare, first half I think profits are down. So just maybe a quick update on your thoughts there?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes, Julian. I think what we talked about was healthcare profit growth of high-single-digits, low-double-digits. I think given how we’ve started the year, particularly in the U.S. and particularly in HCS, our expectations as of now are that we’re going to grow operating profit in healthcare single-digit a share.
Jeff Immelt:
I would say Julian the U.S. market continues to be tough. Outside the U.S., I think the team’s executing pretty well overall. I would agree with Jeff’s assessment on where healthcare are coming on the year. And I think the good part about GE is we have other segments that will be higher than our original expectations, so in total we still feel good about the overall framework of double-digit operating profit growth, industrial operating profit growth.
Jeff Bornstein:
And within healthcare, I mean we still expect that we have expectations that growth markets will continue to grow for us, most of them double-digits, life sciences will have a great year, but the U.S. is going to be real headwind.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse:
Thanks. And then just on the kind of GE-wide EBIT margin bridge I think in the first half, you had a value gap benefit to EBIT of about 200 million, I think in January you talked about a 200 million benefit for the year as a whole. So what should we expect for value gap in the second half as a EBIT driver?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes. So I think the guidance we gave is a couple of hundred million for the year; we’re in very good shape through the first half. We still expect value gap to contract a bit in the second half as it relates to prices, we ship backlog particularly in power and water. But there is a chance, we could be a little bit better for the year on value gap but I wouldn’t expect it to be markedly different than what we have shared with you previously.
Jeff Immelt:
I think [simplification] [ph] still on track for $1 billion plus for the year.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse:
Great. And then just lastly for Steve on the grid business, Chinese competitors have made very big inroads there, even on areas like HVDC is the last decade. How confident are you about the ability to bring up the grid margins given the competitive landscape is so different now?
Steve Bolze:
I think what you saw from the results in the quarter is that team is making progress. And one of the thing that business also needs long-term is scale. And that’s one of the things we talked about with Alstom in our integration planning. One of the joint ventures we have is right in that space. We will be putting our digital energy business with the Alstom grid business to have more scale globally and be able to compete with the people like ABB and Siemens. So I think we are on the right track.
Jeff Immelt:
Julian, if you look in the industry ABB is 15 plus, Siemens is double digits, our combined business will be 5% to 6%. If we can get from 5%-6% to 10%, we are going to create a bunch of shareholder value here in terms of where we need to go. And I think that’s our game plan in terms of how do you be a more competitive enterprise on a combined basis.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse:
Great, thank you.
Jeff Immelt:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley:
Thanks. Good morning.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey, Nigel.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley:
Yes, just a quick question on Synchrony. Obviously you are pushing the button today on the road show but once that IPOs what happens to the accounting for the retail funds business; does that move as an investment or does it qualify for discontinuation?
Jeff Bornstein:
No, will continue accounting for it and continue our operations and we'll account for the public ownership, roughly 15% as minority interest.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley:
Okay. No, that's very clear. And then just switching to the H; you’ve got nine units in your order book. And I'm just wondering Jeff, you mentioned that EPG that's I think roughly 35% on the proposal, I'm just wondering how that number’s changed?
Steve Bolze:
The H, just to follow up on your question there Nigel, as we said we have nine now in the process and our first one ship next year and the demand is around the world and you see demand also in this high efficiency segment continuing to move forward, a lot of focus on area; there are multiple people in the space, but we are happy with our progress. And as you heard from Jeff Bornstein, if you look at our gas turbine orders through the first half, we're 41 versus 32 last year. We're making headway towards the framework that we put out earlier this year of about 125 for the year.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley:
How many in the bid cycle?
Steve Bolze:
In the bid cycle, H probably north of 45, 50. So there is a lot of activity around the world.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research:
Thank you. Good morning.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey Jeff.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research:
Hey. Just a couple of kind of deal related questions. First just Steve or perhaps Jeff Bornstein, but the JV structure and the put structure as it relates to that at Alstom, can you give us a little more color on how that works and how this floor mechanism works?
Steve Bolze:
Absolutely Jeff I, the mechanics, two different structures but it's clear on how Alstom gets liquidity. And in each case, Alstom would have the right to sell all of its shares in the JVs to GE at a price that would return Alstom’s investment plus an annual accretion in line approximately to our borrowing costs. Additionally there is an opportunity for Alstom to share and some potential upside based on a predetermined EBITDA multiple. The timing of those outputs are slightly different grid and renewables more in the three to four year timeframe for the [nuclear] and French steam JV more in the year 5, 6, 7 timeframe but it’s clear we know how it works and pretty straight forward.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research:
If those things go [south part] you still own that making them hold at their investment plus some accretion?
Steve Bolze:
That’s correct. In terms of their whole and some slightly return as we talked about. But at this point we maintain operational control. We named the CEO and we know how to get after the synergies.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research:
And then I was also just wondering shifting gears on Synchrony. I was a little surprised to hear late 2015 is kind of the split-off target given that looks like you’re getting this done mid ‘14 I would have thought maybe six, nine months of seasoning would have been enough and this would be kind of an early ‘15 split. Can you share any thought or philosophy on that?
Jeff Immelt:
Yes. So we’re on the timeline we talked about for the IPO. We’re talking in the second half of ‘15 now. I think just based on the amount of work to get the standalone ready and to get to where we need to be with regulators and get to the approval process. We think that’s probably closer to the second half of ‘15.
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes, Jeff, we’re not going to keep it a day longer than when we get approval to do the split. So it’s just really letting it season as all we’re trying to just allow for a little timeframe for that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from John Inch of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Thank you, good morning everyone.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey John.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Good morning. So Alstom, back to Alstom. When do we get a full handle on the EPC liability risks that project death and life? And as the crawlery just to wait until the deal closes to communicate that if there is something that could be material that you might have to true up or top-up with GE Funding?
Jeff Bornstein:
Why don’t I step in on that one John. Listen, there is nothing new to report here today, you're talking I think about turnkey projects that they have. We get public company due diligence, so there is a certain amount of detail that we have got the exposure to. And with that, we've accounted for that in our financial model, but there is always going to be things we find as we go through the process. But I say at this point, this is a business we know well, we factored that in and we have some synergies to offset as we go forward. So at this point, we just got, we think we got to come.
Jeff Immelt:
John I would just add that and say really a business in an industry that we've been in for 100 years. We've done at once with Alstom, so we knew a little bit from 1999. Deals like this come around infrequently particularly at this kind of valuation, so 4.5 times EBITDA after synergies and synergy pipeline that adds up to more than 1.2 billion. So there is always a lot of discussion around deals like this, but the overall economics are extremely compelling for investors in light in our sweet spot vis-à-vis the ability to execute.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Steve Tusa of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
Good morning.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey Steve.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
So just at a high level first and I have a follow up on power and water mix, what offsets the healthcare revision in framework?
Jeff Bornstein:
Well we generally expect the businesses within the framework I just shared with you in December to be within that framework and.
Jeff Immelt:
I think Steve aviation is certainly doing better and oil and gas is off to a good start for the year and we expect energy management to deliver…
Jeff Bornstein:
Across the portfolio we think we are still within framework we have shared with you.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
Okay and then just on power and water I guess this kind of goes to the next question. When you look out to the second half I think you have the thermal deliveries are going to be up, it looks like distributed power faces pretty much tougher comps and the orders aren’t holding up there so maybe that’s a little bit lower. How much better or against Advanced Gas Paths going to be in the second half and is that enough to offset what would seem like ongoing negative mix when you look at thermal being up and distributed power being down?
Steve Bolze:
Steve as we look at Advanced Gas Paths we have got 19 shifts in the quarter, 36 year-to-date versus 14 last year. So we are clearly on a better path this year on Advanced Gas Paths. My guess is as we look at the second half of the year we are going to see the second half kind of more level loaded with the first half so therefore it might be 70ish maybe a little more. So that’s why when Jeff Bornstein talked about Advanced Gas Paths we feel little better but we do have some probably some softness in the distributed power area. So that’s how we, kind of how we look at that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs:
Hi, good morning everyone.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey Joe.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs:
So to-date, I think you've announced dispositions of roughly a little over $1 billion; you think you've got a targeted number of $4 billion. I was just wondering, if you could give us any update on the timing there? And Jeff, you made a comment earlier that you like where your portfolio is today on oil and gas, so I was wondering what areas you would be looking at specifically to add across your industrial portfolio?
Jeff Immelt:
Well Joe, again, I think we never like to talk about dispositions and so we actually see them, but I would say we are on track for the $4 billion and we would expect additional announcements as you look at how the year unfolds, but those things happen as they happen. And on the buy side, look we always have a list of stuff that we do. I think the question that Scott asked earlier was really a more along the lines of Turbomachinery and packaging and things like that. We feel like in oil and gas, we feel like we've got a great portfolio in that particular segment of oil and gas. And I would just circle back to the big priority of the team really is the Alstom integration and that's where the main focus is right now.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Deane Dray of Citi Research. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray - Citi Research:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey Deane.
Deane Dray - Citi Research:
Hey. Jeff, in your opening remarks, you touched on there were some push outs and you said wind, oil and gas, and subsea. And I was hoping you could quantify a bit as to what the size of those or maybe by geographies any reasons and is this project timing or customer confidence?
Jeff Bornstein:
Yes Deane, I’ll give you a few pieces of it. So within power and water and wind, we had 400, 500 wind units that moved out of the quarter really just awaiting clarification from the treasury department on what constitutes start of construction to be eligible for PTC and these are projects that evolve bank financing and tax equity investors. So, very tough to move those projects along until we’re absolutely certain that they’re going to qualify for the PTC. We expect that clarification to come from the treasury in the next week or two. And we’ve seen that clarification and we think it’s helpful. So, that’s one example, that’s over a $1 billion of orders. And then in subsea, we have a couple of big projects. Of course that we’re hopeful that we’ll see here certainly in the second half as soon as possible would be great, that’s well over a $1 billion as well.
Jeff Immelt:
Deane, on this, there is I think three big subsea deals, two of them have been awarded us, so it’s just a function of getting the kind of project approval and stuff like that.
Jeff Bornstein:
We’re waiting for financial close…
Jeff Immelt:
We’re just waiting for financial close to put the order.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Andrew Obin of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America:
Yes, good morning.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey Andrew.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America:
Good morning, yes. Just with Alstom and with Synchrony, and also you guys are going to do divestitures. What is the rest that some of the restructuring actions get pushed back with active portfolio reshaping going on, just thinking about management bandwidth this year?
Jeff Bornstein:
Zero.
Jeff Immelt:
Andrew I just think zero. Our intent is to get to the 75-25 by ‘16 and still do the simplification that we’ve got going right now and the teams are executing along that track.
Jeff Bornstein:
I would just add Andrew, as long as we’ve got a project list it looks like year and half pay backs, those returns on investment are incredible and we will do every one of them.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question is from Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Thanks.
Jeff Immelt:
Hey Steve.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for putting me in. I appreciate the transparency and speed that which you are moving through this. Couple of questions here, the first one, just clarification on GE Capital. The $3 billion of dividend; how much specials in there?
Jeff Bornstein:
We're estimating a $2 billion income dividend and about a $1 billion special.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Okay. And is there any room for movement around that special in your view, up or down?
Jeff Bornstein:
Not likely.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Okay, alright. And then Steve, and so I’ve got you on power gen. What -- we look at the thermal rate which is also lumpy and down again this quarter but what headwinds are you starting to see or anticipate in the future on the distributed generation and roof top solar front versus the impact on power gen and you've got energy efficiency, you've got solar finally making inroads? Are you guys thinking about that as a headwind at all to growth in the core area?
Jeff Immelt:
Steve?
Steve Bolze:
I think it's a great question. I'd say you are seeing the impact of less load growth, electricity load growth, because of the distributed generation technology, solar energy storage et cetera. But what I would say is in aggregate though there is still electricity load growth. And again, a lot of those technologies still are less than 1% or 2% of the total load on the system and still 70% of all new power generation, new equipment purchases in the world are in developing regions. So this is something we got to look at on a global scale. So overall, I'd say we play in pieces of that. And I think you'll see us over time build out the portfolio in spaces but…
Jeff Immelt:
In the DP businesses, Algeria, Brazil, Thailand, those aren’t solar places, that’s where the DP business really goes.
Steve Bolze:
Right. So, I would say overall it’s an opportunity for us and we go from there.
Matt Cribbins:
Okay, great. We’re bumping up against 09:30. The replay of today’s webcast will be available this afternoon on our website. We’ll also be distributing our quarterly supplemental data for GE Capital later today. A couple of announcements regarding upcoming investor events
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Immelt – Chairman and CEO Jeffrey S. Bornstein – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Rod Christie – Vice President, Subsea Systems Matthew Cribbins – Vice President, Investor Communications
Analysts:
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital Deane Dray – Citigroup Steve Tusa – JPMorgan Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Partners John Inch - Deutsche Bank Julian Mitchell – Credit Suisse Steven Winoker – Sanford C. Bernstein & Company Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric first quarter 2014 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Ellen. I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator instructions). As a reminder this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.
Matthew Cribbins:
Thank you, Ellen. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. We are pleased to host today’s first quarter webcast. Regarding the materials for this webcast, we issued the press release and presentation earlier this morning on our website at www.ge.com/investor. As always, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change as the world changes. Please interpret them in that light. For today’s webcast, we have our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt; our Senior Vice President and CFO, Jeff Bornstein, and our Vice President, Subsea Systems, Rod Christie. We listened to your feedback and thought we’d try something new. To drive a more strategic discussion on the call, we’ll be inviting business leaders to participate to talk about their business, markets, new product introductions and major initiatives. We’ve asked Rod to join today to talk about Subsea. Now I’d like to turn it over to our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Thanks, Matt, and good morning everybody. The GE team had a good quarter and have also been improving environment. The U.S gets a little bit better every day. Europe is improving. The growth markets continue to expand and will provide growth during the year, even with volatility. We had strength across most of our portfolio as global infrastructure markets remained solid. We continued to benefit in energy, oil and gas and aviation sectors and we saw some improvement in the demand for credit. At the same time we encountered a few headwinds in the quarter. Weather impacted our appliances business, but improved in March. Transportation was impacted by mining inventory corrections and the U.S healthcare market continued to experience volatility. Some of this improved as the quarter progressed. Our execution was strong. Industrial segment growth was up 12% above our 10% goal. Organic growth was up 8% above our 4% to 7% goal. Margin growth was 50 basis points and we’re on track to meet our goal of 17% margins by 2016. Our capital earnings and cash were in line with our expectations for the year. We returned $2.4 billion to investors in dividends and buyback and announced $2 billion bolt-on acquisitions. And finally, we submitted our SEC filing Synchrony, the RFS spinoff. This is an important step as we head for our 70% industrial goal. We delivered $0.33 of operating EPS at 9%, excluding the impact of NBCU gains in 2013 restructuring. This is the kind of quarter GE investors should like. The environment was not perfect, but we were able to deliver strong results due to the breadth of our portfolio. Orders were flat overall. Backlog grew to $245 billion and orders pricing was up 0.4 points. While equipment orders can be lumpy, service orders, things like aviation spares, tend to be a good gauge of the underlying economy and we saw broad strength in our service businesses with four of six segments up double digits. Six of nine growth regions grew orders by double digits in the quarter. Equipment orders were down in aviation and oil and gas versus tough comps in 2013. We have a great backlog in position in each market and feel good about the long term growth. In transportation we see a strengthening market for North American locomotives and we won a very large order for kits for South Africa. I wanted to point out two other factors on orders. First we see the pipeline building so we feel good about growth during the year. And second, we have grown backlog by $29 billion from the first quarter of 2013 with growth in every segment. This fortifies our ability to hit goals this year and in the future. The company executed well in the first quarter. Industrial operating profit growth of 12% is a good start to the year. Organic growth was up 8%. Growth markets continue to provide momentum with five of nine up double digits and 7% growth overall. We made great progress in services with aviation spares up 22% and 17 Advanced Gas Paths, up from two last year. Equipment revenue grew by 12%. Our products are winning in the market with excellent growth in power, oil and gas, and aviation. For instance we are well positioned throughout our gas turbine product line, extending to the H turbine which has more than 61% efficiency and more than 400 megawatts of output. Our Revolution CT just received FDA approval and should drive positive growth for the year. Europe grew by 14% in the first quarter. So we’re starting to get stabilization in that market as well. Our target is to grow margins this year. We’re off to a good start. This is our fourth consecutive quarter of expansion with 50 basis points of growth. We’re driving simplification throughout the company and our restructuring efforts are paying off. We generated about $250 million of structural costs out of the quarter and value gap had a positive 50 basis point impact on margins. We’re gaining traction with our Fast Works initiative which is improving R&D efficiency. Mix was a headwind, but our productivity programs more than offset. Finally, we expect broader business participation in the future Healthcare, Energy Management, and Appliances & Lighting should have positive margin and operating profit expansion for the rest of 2014 based on improving markets and restructuring. Our CFOA is off to a good start and on track for the year. We generated $1.7 billion, up from 4200 million from last year. The company has substantial financial strength, with $87 billion of consolidated cash and close to $12 billion at the Parent. As you know, we issued $3 billion of debt in the quarter. GE Capital remains in great shape, with a Tier 1 common ratio of 11.4%. Meanwhile Commercial Paper was in a very low level of $25 billion. The total ENI of $374 billion was down 7%. We’ve allocated capital in a disciplined and balanced way. We continue to invest in plant and equipment to grow the company globally. Our dividend is up 16% year-over-year. We plan to reduce the float in 2014 and we’re on track to reduce share count to 9 million to 9.5 million shares by the end of 2015, including the retail spend. We will continue to bolt-on acquisitions like the three we announced so far this year. Our targets remain $1 billion to $4 billion, but we have gone above on opportunistic deals that have excellent values, strong synergies, fit our growth strategies and are immediately accretive. For instance, Avio was above our range and accretive to investors. At the same time we plan for about $4 billion of dispositions this year. Now I’ll turn it over to Rod Christie who runs our Subsea business as Matt said earlier. We plan to review an important segment or initiative each quarter. As the year goes on, we plan to cover topics like heavy duty gas turbine technology, Healthcare and Life Sciences, China or other important operating initiatives or organic growth opportunities. So now I’ll turn it over to Rod.
Rod Christie:
Thanks, Jeff. So starting on the left side of the page, I want to give you a flavor of how we see the long term prospect for oil and gas industry before we drill into the Subsea sector specifically. The forecast is for global oil and gas demand to continue to grow through 2018, with oil mainly driven by the ongoing industrialization and emerging economies and the rise of living standards, while gas emerges across mainly all of the economies as a cleaner fuel source. In addition to the increasing demand, the other dynamic to consider here is well decline rates on existing operations of around 3% to 4% onshore and 6% to 10% offshore. The combination of both these factors makes ongoing investment necessary to develop new reserves and enhance the recovery in existing assets. Moving to the top right of the page, we see these dynamics driving 4% and 2% CAGRs in production rates for oil and gas respectively through 2018. The expectation is for stronger growth in Subsea and unconventional production. Translating all of this into total industry spend, we expect to see continued growth as high NOCs and independents work to recover more hydrocarbons from existing assets and bring on new reserves to meet the growing demand. With respect to Subsea sector, the expectation for long term development of deep water reserves is supported by the robust activity we see in drilling in front end engineering design through the cycle. Given this expectation, our Subsea Systems business is well positioned to serve customers with both technology and life-of-field services across the globe. Our extensive capabilities enable us to provide everything from discrete components to full Subsea production systems. We’re also uniquely placed against our competitors and that we can leverage technology from other GE businesses and run joint technology program specific to the critical need. To give you a couple of examples here, we cooperate with GE’s monitoring and controls business in the area of Subsea integrity management and leverage their sensory and diagnostics technology specifically developed for our own space. We’re also running a joint technology program with GE’s power conversion business for Subsea power and drive. This really enables us to develop value added solutions under one roof wherever the core competency actually exists inside GE. Likewise, GE gives us the ability to scale up. As many of you be aware, localization is often a mandatory requirement on our industry. When we move into new geographies, it’s not unusual to find other GE businesses are already there. Usually it is either Power and Water or another oil and gas business. This means we can leverage their relationships, their knowledge and potentially their footprint. Additionally, we’ve been working with GE’s global growth and operation team to accelerate development in countries like Nigeria, and Angola where we can benefit from their high level relationship and the back office support to get things up and running very quickly. Today, we’re present in all the major deep water basins around the world such as Brazil, sub Saharan Africa, Asia and Australia while still retaining significant capability around both the UK and Norwegian continental shell. Our experience in extreme cold water and long step out capabilities for controls and propeller solutions position as well for future activity, a sector that’s going to require really no topsides and has the added complexity really of an icebound environment. So three years ago, a major Subsea industry survey took feedback from 135 customers and ranked each supplier against the top priorities of the subsea oil and gas operators. The chart on the left of this page details how GE was rated against our competitors back in 2012. As you can see, we performed well in the key areas like EHS, reliability and technology. However we were mid pack when it came to on time delivery. And in fact really none of the suppliers are performing consistently to acceptable level in this critical requirement. This is one of the main risks to both the supplier and the customer in this industry. And a significant number of large-scale Subsea developments experienced both schedule and cost overrun. Given that he timing and carrying costs for initial CapEx outlay on these projects, the key driver in overall returns, we have focused investment to differentiate performance around cycle and on time delivery. As of today, we offer a suite of structured products that offer modular customization to our customers. So let me expand a little bit on modularization. What that really means is we can provide exactly what a customer wants. So we do it with less engineering and less supply chain risk as we use a standard module to do so. We’ve also completed significant process reengineering to drive speed and transparency across our business operations. We’ve created a global project COE that interfaces directly through all of our sites and suppliers, and supports our project teams wherever they’re operating in the world. To underpin this, we’ve also invested in an integrated IP infrastructure, enables us to scale the organization though industry cycles without losing either capability or impacting our operational excellence. The final piece of this jigsaw really has been the investments we’ve made in creating new capacity and unlocking latent capacity in a number of our factories. Today using lean manufacturing disciplines, we’ve increased capacity for trees, controls, well heads and manifolds. In general, we’ve been able to realize capacity increases between 30% and 100% in our existing facilities and have commissioned new capacity in Indonesia and Brazil. And sure we feel we’re very well placed to take on new commitments. Growth in the deep water oil and gas sector looks strong over the long term and we feel very confident about our competitiveness of both our existing product line and the technologies we have in development. The investments we’ve made in capacity and capability also put us in a great position for our customer wherever they operate in the world. Just to give you some context on the evolution of the Subsea System Business. In 2011 we were executing a handful of small projects and two Subsea production EPC projects, the largest of which was around $600 million. Today we’re executing 8 EPC projects, the largest of which exceeds $1.3 billion. The programs we’ve undertaken to structure our products, lean out supply chain and project operations are yielding results in cycle time reduction and cost reduction. And we expect to see further benefits come from these as we drive these deeper into our business. Just to give you some context here, 1Q revenue we saw 37% increase year-over-year and a 3x increase in both margin and in rate. On top of this, our global footprint really makes us take local and capable in the main deep water basins today and GE’s reach means we can move quickly and at scale in any of the developing geographies. Overall we really feel very good about the fundamentals of this business and it’s -- really have to say that I’m very excited about the way this moves in the future. So with that, I’ll pass it over to Jeff.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Great. Thanks Rod. I’m going to start with operations in the quarter, then we’ll move through the segments. We had continuing operations revenues of $34.2 billion, down 2% from the first quarter of 2013. Industrial sales of $24 billion were up 8% and GE Capital revenues of $10.5 billion were down 8%. Operating earnings of $3.3 billion were down 18% and operational earnings per share of $0.33 were down 15%, principally driven by NBC as Jeff mentioned earlier. On the next page, I’ll take you through more detail on the normalized EPS work versus last year. Continuing EPS of $0.29 includes the impact of non-operating pensions and net earnings per share of $0.30 includes the impact of discontinued operations. We had $12 million benefits in the quarter in discontinued operations with no material impact from WMC. Pending claims at WMC declined to $4.5 billion, reflecting $1.2 billion of resolutions, with reserves declining in line with expectations. New pending claims in the quarter were negligible. As Jeff said, first quarter CFOA was $1.7 billion, with industrial cash flow of $1.2 billion and received 500 million of dividends in GE capital. The GE tax rate for the quarter was 24% and the GE Capital rate was 9%. For the year we’re still expecting the GE rate to be around 20% and the GE Capital rate to be in the single digits. On the right side, you can see the segment results. And as Jeff mentioned, performance was mixed by business, but overall pretty good with industrial segment revenues up 8% and operating profit up 12%. GE Capital earnings were flat in the quarter on lower assets. Now I’ll take you through the dynamics of each of the segments on the pages that follow. And first on the other items page, I’ll start with adjusted EPS walk. So last year as you recall we had operating EPS of $0.39 in the first quarter. This included $0.10 of gains and income from NBC that was offset by $ 0.04 of industrial restructuring and other items. We also had a $0.05 gain at GE Capital from the sale of 30 Rock that was offset by other charges as well. That walk gets you to an adjusted operating EPS of $0.33 last year. This quarter we had $0.03 of industrial restructuring and other items. Making the same adjustment for ‘14 gets you the $0.36, and that’s up 9% on an adjusted basis. That’s how we’re thinking about operating performance in the quarter. On the right side as I mentioned, we had $0.03 of charges related to industrial restructuring other items as we continue to invest in simplification to improve the company’s cost structure. The spend was broad based with projects in every business and corporate. We’re executing more than 150 projects at average about a year and a half payback. The projects relate to everything from manufacturing footprint reduction, service shop consolidations, SG&A actions and exiting low margin product lines, primarily in developed markets. We’re continuing to work through timing of European work council approvals. And on the positive side some of the projects are coming in below our regional cost estimates with no downgrade in benefits. For the year, we still anticipate $1 billion to $1.5 billion of restructuring, with about 60% of that in the first half. And we’re still planning on delivering more than $1 billion industrial costs out for the year. As we told you in November, we expect to have some dispositions in our industrial portfolio in 2014 and we’re currently working on a transaction related to a non-core asset that may result in a small gain likely in the second quarter, potentially in the third quarter. Now I’ll take you through each of the segments, starting with Power and Water. Orders of $5.7 billion were up 9%. Equipment orders of $2.6 billion were down 3%, driven by renewables down 13%. That was partially offset by distributive power, which was up 9% and thermal was up 3%. Wind orders totaled 422 turbines versus 584 in the first quarter of ‘13. Our view of wind orders for the year has not changed. We still expect strong growth. We took orders for 31 gas turbines in the first quarter of this year versus eight a year ago. Service orders were $3.1 billion, higher by 23%. The growth was primarily driven by PGS up 32%, up 43% ex Europe. The business had orders for 17 EGPs versus two a year ago as well as a large $330 million upgrade order in Japan. Europe continues to be very, very soft. Backlog in power and water continued to grow, with equipment higher by 18% and services by 2% year-over-year. OPI in the quarter was negative 40 basis points driven by equipment. Revenue in the quarter of 5.5 billion was up 14%. Equipment revenues were up 41% driven by wind shipments of 646 units, 345 units higher than the first quarter of 2013 and thermal was up five gas turbines, shipping 17 versus 12 a year ago. We shipped all but one wind turbine associated with blade quality from the fourth quarter. Service revenues were down 5% as AGP performance was offset by weakness in Euro. Segment operating profit was 24% higher on strong volume and simplification benefits, partly offset by negative mix associated with wind. SG&A in the quarter was down 9% year over year. The wind blade quality issues in the quarter were negligible. Margins expanded for the quarter 120 basis points. Next is oil and gas. Oil and gas orders for the quarter of $4.6 billion were down 5% with equipment orders down 17% and service growth of 11%. Equipment orders were down versus tough comparison to last year when orders were up 24%. Subsidy equipment was down 62% principally on timing. As we’ve commented previously, orders in oil gas tend to be very lumpy on a quarterly basis. And as Rod shared with you, we expect subsidy orders to be up double digits for the total year. We continue to see good growth in Turbomachinery solutions, up 16% in the quarter and two large wins in the US LNG space. And Downstream technology was also strong, up 48%. Service orders of 2.2 billion were higher by 11%, led by Turbomachinery, up 22% and downstream technology solutions up 20%. That was partly offset by MNC which was down 7%. Backlog continues to grow in oil and gas with equipment up 15% and services up 4% versus prior year. Orders pricing was better by 140 basis points in the quarter. Revenue was up 27% up18% ex-Lufkin. And subsidy was up 37%, Turbomachinery up 25%, downstream solutions up 24% and drilling and surface was up 13%, while MNC was down 4%. We expect MNC to be flat for the total year. Operating profit was strong in the quarter, up 37%, up 28% ex-Lufkin. The growth is driven by volume, value gap base cost productivity in the absence of the FX charge we had last year in the first quarter. This was partly offset by negative mix on lower MNC volume. Our operating profit rate improved 80 basis points in the quarter both with and without Lufkin. So turning to the next page on aviation, just some context here. Air travel continued to grow strongly. Global revenue passenger kilometers grew 6.9% through February compared to 5.2% a year ago with a particular strength in the Middle East, Asia, Europe and China. Through February, freight growth was up 3.6% versus 1.4% a year ago and that growth was driven by Latin America, Europe and the Middle East. Orders in the quarter of $5.5 billion were down 17% as expected, driven by equipment orders down 38% to $2.4 billion. The first quarter of 2013 we had $1.4 billion of CFM LEAP launch orders and two large China G 90 orders. Commercial engine backlog ended the quarter at $21 billion. That’s 68% higher versus last year. The military equipment orders of $421 million were up 44% driven by demand for CT7 engines. Services orders were $3.1 billion, up 10%. And commercial service orders were up 12%, driven by strong commercial spare parts, up 17% to $29.7 million a day. Military service orders were up 18% driven by spare parts, up 19% on strong demand for T700 spares. Orders pricing was strong at 2.6% for the quarter. Revenue of $5.8 billion was up 14%, up 10% ex Avio. Equipment revenue was higher by 14% on strong price and shipments of 646 commercial engines versus 596 last year. We shipped 70 GEnx engines versus 41 a year ago and military revenues were down 3% on 31 fewer engines in the quarter. Service revenue $2.9 billion was up 14% driven by commercial up 18% and military down five. Commercial spare shipments were $28.5 million a day. That was up 22% versus last year. Operating profit of $1.1 billion was up 19%, 14% ex Avio on strong value gap in volume. Margin rates improved 90 basis points, 80 basis points ex Avio. Avio continues to perform very well, an overall good execution in the aviation business in the quarter. Next on healthcare; the first quarter in the US was soft. Hospitals and clinics appear to be delaying purchases and responses to the ACA. Patient inflows, outpatient visits, ER, surgeries procedures were all down 1% to 1.7% in a quarter. Preliminary NEMA data suggests the U.S market was down single digits excluding one big VA bulk order from several years ago. Our NEMA orders were down 2%. So we believe we actually gained share in the quarter a point or two. As a result of these dynamics, healthcare’s first quarter was softer than we expected. Orders of $4.2 billion were down 1% driven by the U.S down 4%, offset by continued strength in emerging markets, which were up 10%. China was up 13%, Latin America was up 10%, and the Middle East was up 47%. Europe was also strong, up 4%. Equipment orders of $2.3 billion were flat and HCS emerging market orders were higher by 13%, offset by the U.S down 12%. Life science orders were up 1% in the quarter. Service orders were $1.9 billion, and they were down 2% in the quarter. First quarter backlog was $16.3 billion, which was up 7% versus prior year, and order pricing was down 1.5%. Revenues of $4.2 billion were down 2% with equipment down 2%, and services down 3%. Operating profit of $570 million was down 4%, driven by negative value gap, offset by strong base course management. SG&A in our healthcare business was down 9% in the quarter. The business expects the U.S softness to probably persist in the second quarter, but expect to continue to gain share and deliver earnings growth through the year. So with that we’ll move to transportation. Transportation had a solid execution quarter given their environment. In terms of domestic activity, car loads were up 1% in the first quarter, driven by intermodal traffic which was higher by 3%. Coal volume continues to be soft. It was down 1%, but petroleum products and petroleum were higher 6.5%. Orders for the quarter were $2.4 billion. That was up over 100%, led by equipment orders up four times. We had orders for 259 locos, and 299 loco kits, versus 80 locos last year and 25 kits a year ago. We received a large order from South Africa for 233 kits, and had order is for 176 locos in the U.S. Service orders were down 18% due to weak mining and no repeat of the large Amtrak signaling order we had in the first quarter of last year. Order price index was flat and backlog was 6% versus the first quarter of ‘13. Revenues for the quarter were down 14% as we anticipated. Equipment was down 20%, driven by mining off-highway vehicles down 76%, partly offset by locomotives up 23%. We shipped 178 locos versus 143 a year ago. Service was down 7% on weaker mining parts demand. Op profit was down 24%. Very strong cost and productivity performance was more than offset by volume and mix. Margins were down 230 basis points in the quarter. On energy management, the business continues to be a work in progress. We made a lot of gains in restructuring and resizing the business around its cost structure and footprint, were offset by sales softness in marine startup execution. Orders were $2.2 billion. That was down 1%. Digital energy was up 20% on a large domestic meter order, and Industrial Solutions was up 1%. This was offset by power conversion down 16%, with no repeat of first quarter ‘13 Brazilian drillship orders we took. The business did continue to build backlog in all its segments, with a total up 17% year-over-year to $4.9 billion. Revenue was down 4% in the quarter, with digital energy down 20%, industrial solutions down 3%, and power conversion down 2%. Operating profit was $5 million in the quarter. That’s down from $15 million a year ago. Despite the poor performance, we continue to get restructuring benefits and reduce SG&A cost. This was more than offset by negative volume and execution challenges. We expect this business to improve its results throughout the year, particularly in the second half. Appliances and Lighting; Appliances and Lighting had a challenging quarter as well. Appliance revenues were down 3%. The appliance market was down 4% through February, but was much stronger in March to end the quarter flat year-over-year. Housing stock stats were soft, with single family down 8%, offset by multi-family strength, up 9%. Lighting revenue was down 4%. Our traditional channels in lighting were down 9%, partially offset by LED growth, up 33%. Segment profit of $53 million was down 33% in the quarter. Appliance op profit was down 2%, with higher price offset by lower volume and negative productivity. And lighting op profit was down 44%, driven by strong material depletion, more than offset by productivity price and foreign exchange. For both businesses, the last two weeks of March and the first week of April were much stronger. We expect them to be back on track in the second quarter. Next I’ll cover GE Capital. Revenue of $10.5 billion was down 8%, primarily from non-repeat of the 30 Rock sale last year. Assets were down 3% or $18 Billion year-over-year. Net income of $1.9 billion was flat to prior year, as lower losses and impairments offset reduced gains, lower earning assets and tax benefits. ENI ended the quarter at $374 billion. It was down $28 billion or 7% from last year, and down $7 billion sequentially. Noncore ENI was down 16% to $52 billion versus last year. Net interest margins decreased 11 basis points from 2013 to 4.9%. This slight improvement in business margins was offset by the cost from carrying higher levels of cash. GE Capital’s liquidity and capital levels continued to get stronger. We ended the quarter with $75 billion of cash and reduced our commercial paper borrowings to $25 billion in the first quarter. That’s nine months ahead of our year-end target. Our Tier 1 common ratio on a Basel 1 basis improved 23 basis points sequentially, with 32 basis points year-over-year to end at 11.4%. On the right side of the page, asset quality trends continue to be stable. I’ll walk through the segment performances. The commercial lending and leasing business ended the quarter with $175 billion of assets, flat to last year. On book core volume was $8 billion dollars, down 2% as we continued to stay disciplined on pricing and risk hurdles, with continued excess liquidity in the market. New business returns remained reasonably strong at about 1.8% ROI. Earnings of $564 million were up 42% as a result of not repeating the specific impairment we had last year in the first quarter as well as from asset sales. The consumer segment ended the quarter with $132 billion of assets, down 3% from last year. But we were up 8% in North American retail finance business. Earnings of $786 million were up 47% as a result of not repeating $300 million impact from the reserve modeling changes we implemented in the first quarter of 2013. North American Retail Finance earned $590 million in the quarter. That’s up 54%, again largely driven by not repeating the reserving changes and on strong asset quotes of 8% year over year. Real Estate had another solid quarter. Assets at $38 billion went down 11% versus prior year and $1 billion dollar sequentially. The equity book is down 29% from a year ago to $13 billion. Net income of $239 million was down 65%, primarily from not repeating the 30 Rock gain. In the current quarter, we sold 165 properties with a book value of $1 billion for about $117 million in gains. The debt business earned $120 million in the quarter and originated almost $2 billion of volume at attractive ROIs. In terms of verticals, GECAS earned $352 million up 1% as higher core income offset the impact of lower assets which were down 8%. New volume was $1.5 billion, 36% higher year-over-year with very attractive returns north of 3% ROI’s. We ended the quarter with zero aircraft on the ground. EFS had a solid quarter, with earnings up 84% to $153 million driven by strong core income in gains, partially offset by impairments. The team continues to perform well here. As we look forward to the second quarter, we expect to run rate for GE Capital to be around $1.8 billion of earnings. So with that I’ll turn it back to Jeff.
Jeffery Immelt:
Great, Jeff. Thanks. Finally on the framework; look, we’re reaffirming the framework for the year. We feel good really about our progress on the industrial side and we think -- which you saw in the first quarter in terms of organic growth. Solid organic growth and good margin expansion should continue in the second quarter and throughout the year. Capital is on track for its plan and CFOA remains on track as well with the framework. There is a lot going on in corporate and you understand our goals for restructuring. We’ll give you frequent updates on our progress. And look, with underlying EPS up 9% in the quarter and strong industrial segment profit growth, we think we’re off to a good start. So Matt let me turn it back over to you and let’s take some questions.
Matthew Cribbins:
Thanks, Jeff, Jeff and Rod, Ellen why don’t we open it up for questions?
Operator:
(Operator instructions). Our first question is from Scott Davis with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey Scott.
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital:
The 8% core growth is a pretty big number. How do you think about the sustainability of those levels? It's probably about 2x the sector overall. And then I want ask a follow-up on margins. But let's just talk about core growth first.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Jeff, you want to start?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yeah, Listen I think we’re very happy with the level of growth in the quarter. Reflects a lot of the order activity we had in 2013. As we said the short cycle businesses were definitely impacted by weather in the first quarter. We expect Industrial Solutions, Appliances and Lighting to get better as we move in the second quarter in the year. We’re still on framework. We expect organic growth for the year to be between 4% and 7% and I think we’re pleased that we are off to a strong start here.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Scott I would just add, I think wind always adds a little bit of noise plus or minus around each quarter. It was more on the plus side this quarter. And like I said at the outlook meeting in December, we have an internal plan that adds up to more than the range and that’s how we run the businesses and that’s -- I think we still believe in the framework for the year. But we have an internal plan that adds up to more than that.
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital:
Okay, fair enough. 50 bps of margins, just back of the envelope, 8% core growth should kind of get you there already. But you also talked about having value gap and cost-out. Is there any way to parse out the 50 bps and how you guys think about it via fixed-cost coverage from the volume leverage and the cost-out, how (indiscernible) break down to the 50 bps?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Mix was a bit of a head win for us in the quarter, more than 100 basis points in the quarter. That’s the strength and wind, the strength you heard Rod talk about with 37% sales growth in Subsea while MNC volume was down 7%. Mix for us in the quarter was about 100 or 120 basis points of headwind. And that was offset with strong value gap, a little bit of favorability in R&D, but principally by simplification. We had 160 basis points of favorability and structural cost and getting at delivering on both the structural cost initiative and delivering on the restructuring investments we’ve made. And that was partially offset by base cost inflation that generally reflects increases in salaries. I think we feel very good about the construct in the quarter. It’s more or less how we thought about the year and what we described to you at yearend. We know that we are going to grow equipment and revenue faster than services this year. And so mix will be an item for the year. We have to deliver on simplification, overcome that and grow margins.
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital:
That's helpful. Just a quick clarification, guys. I haven't heard you mention 8 series turbine in a long time. Do you actually have a commercially viable product at this point?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Yeah. I think Scott this is – we’ve gotten a couple of commitments and we’re in the process of rolling that out as we speak. We think this is going to be a great product at really a good time.
Scott Davis – Barclays Capital:
Perfect. Okay. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
The next question comes from Deane Dray with Citi research
Deane Dray – Citigroup:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Jeff, I was hoping you could expand on your comments on the bolt-on acquisition outlook. You all have been operating on a self-imposed investor-friendly range of -- it was $1 billion to $3 billion and then got inched up for Avio, $1 billion to $4 billion. And you are clearly signaling a willingness to go a bit higher than that for the right acquisition. That's the same language you used when you -- just before you got Avio. So maybe you could expand for us; how much higher above $4 billion? What applications or markets look interesting? It likely sounds like you've got something close.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Yeah, I wouldn’t read too much into it, Dean other than this is the way we answer the question typically from the standpoint of, we do the vast majority of our acquisitions in that range. People ask if you saw something that was strategic added to the growth rate, bolt-on, well priced secretive. Would you go above that? And clearly when we did Avio that was $4.2 billion and we had one to three type of range. It’s typically the way we answer the question in investor meetings and at the outlook meetings and things like that. Again I think we have discipline on capital allocation. We’re committed to dividend growth, the buyback that we talked about, but if we saw unique value in the marketplace like we did with Avio, we would do transactions like that.
Deane Dray – Citigroup:
Great. That makes lots of sense. And then since we have Rod on the call today, I would love to hear from you about -- if you could frame for us how much of the portfolio you have in place today. The whole idea that GE was able to take a lot of the proceeds from NBC and very quickly add some strategic assets into Oil & Gas and then you would stop and see how is the portfolio? Where are the gaps? From your perspective, how much of your portfolio do you have today in order to be effective? Are you half? Do you have three-quarters? I’m not asking you specific gaps, but maybe just frame for us how complete the portfolio is.
Rod Christie:
Sure. I think when I look at the portfolio that we had today for Subsea, we feel very good about it. We can compete pretty much anywhere that we choose to. I think what you’ve seen over the last six months around us moving more into the Subsea power and processing really gives you an idea of the brands that we can bring from GE broadly. So our conversion, total machinery, water, realize it’s a step into those spaces. So at this point in time, I feel very good about where we are and anything going forward is really a discussion about internal versus external with a bit more scale. So it’s really about timing. So very similar to what Jeff had talked about with if we see something that looks very attractive to us then potentially, but we don’t feel like there’s any major method in this point in time.
Deane Dray – Citigroup:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Hey, good morning?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey Steve. How are you doing?
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Good. Can you maybe just talk about -- you talked about the 50 bps continuing throughout the year. Anything you guys have -- I guess every company has become kind of seasonal with bigger quarters in the back half of the year. Anything lumpy in the second quarter that we need to be aware of, whether it's timing of some of these Advanced Gas Path stuff or Wind that we have to consider when thinking about the second quarter?
Jeffrey Immelt:
I don’t think so, Steve. I don’t think Jeff said he was carrying the 50 basis points all year, but thank you for that. We’ll have slightly higher restructuring charges in the second quarter. I said we’re still on track for the 1 to 1.5 and we’re going to spend 60% of that spend on the first half of the year. So the second quarter will be a little bit bigger than the first quarter. We will ship more GEnx engines in the second quarter than we shipped in the first quarter. But other than that, not a lot of -- I did mention that we’re working on one disposition. Not sure whether that’s going to be second or third quarter quite yet, but it’s not that a big a deal. Other than that I don’t have a lot of other items to call out for.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Okay. And then just on the organic growth calc, can we get the contribution from the deals and then ForEx, or negative from ForEx for the quarter, total deals, revenue contribution, and then ForEx? I know they are in the back of the supplement or whatever, or in the press release, but just the data.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yeah. Sure, Steve. Reported revenue, up 8%. Acquisitions added 2 points. Dispositions had a 1.4 point impact, but then foreign exchange was half a point and that’s how you go from 8 to 8.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Okay. All right. That's great. Thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Partners:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey Jeff. How you doing?
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research:
I’m doing great, and you?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Good.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research:
Just a question on the industrial balance sheet, I guess dovetailing with maybe opening the aperture a little bit on deals. You did do the $3 billion debt raise on the industrial balance sheet. How would you size that relative to the capacity that you have? You teased us a little bit in December with some juice there. Is $3 billion the number or is it something larger than that?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
The $3 billion was in the context of the capital allocation plan that we put together for 2014. And we saw the first quarter where markets was very opportunistic. We issued the $3 billion. We were immensely oversubscribed and we’re very pleased with the rates that we took the $3 billion at, well inside on after tax basis our dividend yield. That’s how we size it within the context of our capital allocation game plan for the year. We’re constantly reevaluating the capital allocation game plan with the team and the board, and we’ll continue to do that.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research:
But that’s roughly the comfortable number relative to the cost commitments to capital and everything?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
No. It's the relevant comfortable number within the context of the capital allocation plan we pulled together for the year.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research:
Okay. And then, can you just size for us the gains that you have in CLL and energy financial services?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yeah. So, CLL we did sell about 18,000 boxcars per diems, meaning daily rental boxcars in the quarter that was worth a little north of $100 million. We did sell some private equity investments that we do reasonably routinely and just a little bit of Volcker driven the first quarter. That was a much smaller gain. And then energy finance, it's pretty routine for us. We had about, I don’t know, $150 million of gains associated with properties that we sold in energy finance in the first quarter.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research:
Right, thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question is from John Inch with Deutsche Bank.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Thank you. Good morning everybody.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Hey John.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Good morning guys. Jeff, could we flesh out a little bit of the playbook for energy, the energy management business? It looks like you guys made a leadership change there. How are you thinking about really just the portfolio? And maybe Jeff Bornstein you’ve gotten into further the restructuring, how that kind of maybe compliments that segment or your focus on it, just something that might provide us a little bit more color.
Jeffrey Immelt:
John, here’s the way I look at it. First from a technical standpoint, there are pieces of the energy management business that are great fits for the rest of the company, like power conversion. As Rod said, that’s a great complement to oil and gas, and some of the things we’re doing. So technically these are industries we understand and can compete in. Our relevant competitors have margin rates that are 10% plus. Some of that’s scale, and some of that’s our own complexity. What Jeff Bornstein said today is that we’re committed to restructure, and that’s going to provide some big margin lift in that business. And then I just think we can execute better, Mark Begor is a guy that’s well known inside the company of being a great recruiter and an extremely experienced operator, turn around guy and he is in place, and we’re hiring people from the industry. My intent is to run this business and make it better and make it accretive to investors and drive earnings in it. Could there be a couple of segments in there that had long term fits for GE? Could be. We’ll sort that out and be very tough minded about it, but this segment can do better than what you’re seeing right now. And that’s our commitment to you, is to make it better both from a cost standpoint, and from a market standpoint.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
So just on that front, I’d just add that they actually -- you can't see it in the results yet. It's getting eaten up in operations, but we are making progress in restructuring. We had close to a $25 million of benefits in restructuring in the first quarter, and we expect that to accelerate throughout the year. There is some progress here. Our manufacturing delinquencies are down 50% versus yearend and so, we are making progress. I understand -- completely understand you can't see it in the results yet, but our expectations are this business is going to improve dramatically from an operating earnings perspective over the balance of the year.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Okay. That was my other part of the question here. So sequential improvement and it sounds like Jeff Immelt, there’s no reason this business can't be running at double digit margins. Is that fair?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Look, everybody -- I think John everybody else, unlike our other businesses where our margins are ahead of our peers, this is one where we trail our peers and we can do better.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Can I just ask about the Oil & Gas business for a second? There’s a broad level of concern in the industry about flattish CapEx budgets for the integrateds and obviously just the global economy is still not particularly helpful. Price of oil doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Maybe you can provide a little bit more color, given that you featured Oil & Gas on the call. How does that context of these big integrated companies with flat if not even maybe declining CapEx budgets, how does that dovetail with your own business and why is your own business either more or less impervious to that?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Rod, why don’t you take a crack?
Rod Christie:
Sure. I think -- and I’m going to talk specifically about what I’m seeing in Subsea today. Really what I see is a lot more frontend engagement. So customers aren’t -- the customers that I’m talking to aren’t really looking at dialing back the number of projects. They’re looking at how do they get better capital efficiency. So we’ve seen more frontend engagement around technology, the selection of that technology configuration and how can we deploy with less risks, shorter cycle and potentially at a lower cost. So in many cases what I thought about with the structuring our product really played to that. We’ve taken cycle out, which obviously means a shorter carrying period for any capital investment in the Subsea area from my perspective. So I think most of the customers are looking to continue to drive as many of the projects as they can. It’s making it much easier for us from our point of view of actually early engagement, early dialogue, early engineering so we can take more risk out.
Jeffrey Immelt:
John, can I -- I’d add to that. The reinforcement of the way we build our oil and gas business by really invest very specific segments that have faster growth rates than the industry itself. Things like Subsea, turbo machinery and the LNG train, some of our downstream technologies. We really are in the places where there’s going to be a lot of capital continue to be spent.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Okay. So looking at Shell's CapEx deployment is not really the correct proxy, in other words, is what you are saying?
Jeffrey Immelt:
Exactly, yeah.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julian Mitchel with the Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell – Credit Suisse:
I just had a couple of questions on the margin bridge. I think, firstly, value gap was maybe what, about a $100 million tailwind in Q1? Just wanted to check that. And back in January you had talked about a $200 million tailwind for the year in value gap. Is that still the case or have you updated those assumptions?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
No. I think that’s what we guided at yearend, that we expected the value gap for the year to be $100 million to $200 million. In the quarter you’re not too far off the mark here in terms of value gap. I think what you’ve got to bear in mind is within our value gap this quarter power and water was negative, but not extraordinarily negative. And we expect price, particularly in thermal to be much tougher as we work through the backlog for the balance of the year. So you’re correct. The framework was up to $200 million and you’re not far off the mark on the impact in the quarter.
Julian Mitchell – Credit Suisse:
Okay. And then just on the mix effect, can you just remind us, I guess, what the view is now on wind deliveries for the year and how much more those are ramping up in the back half?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yeah. So, no change on the framework that I gave you at yearend on wind deliveries. I said that we’d do about 3,000 units and that’s still what we expect to do. In terms of first half, second half, it’s a little bit heavier weighted to the second half of the year. We’ll do I don’t know about 1,800 of those 3,000 in the third and fourth quarter.
Julian Mitchell – Credit Suisse:
Lastly just quickly, and I guess for Jeff Immelt. On the divestments in Industrial, you talked a little bit about that in the slides. Also in the annual report there was some kind of a commitment or comment around targeting a minimum 10% margin for the Industrial businesses. I just wondered what -- was that equipment plus service combined, and what the timeframe for that 10% minimum threshold was? Because I guess you have some businesses that have never been at 10%.
Jeffery Immelt:
I think Julian, what I would focus on is the $4 billion number. I think it’s our expectation that -- we’re more active on the divestiture front this year and try to leave it at that. We continue to be tough minded around the portfolio and I would expect our divestures to be a little bit more active this year than they were last.
Julian Mitchell – Credit Suisse:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Steve Winoker with Sanford Bernstein.
Steven Winoker – Sanford C. Bernstein & Company:
Just, Rod, while I've got you here -- and I really appreciate the focus in on the business unit during the call. I guess one of the primary debates around Subsea is that production tree order trend starting to rise again in 2015. You addressed your mixed benefit. But this emerging capital discipline by the majors I guess is a real question of even in those more attractive sub segments, to what extent do you think that risks the growth and to what extent also are you seeing the outlook for production tree pricing deteriorate in any way?
Rod Christie:
If you look at the forecast this year for trees overall globally it’s down, but you have to look at the mix between Brazil and the rest of the world. Brazil is a large buy for a large commitment made for trees in 2013. The rest of the world demand actually increases slightly year-over-year and then you see the total demand back up again or forecast to go back up again in ‘15. But the other thing that you really see is the projects have got larger, so things have got lumpier. You look at the total number of projects that are going for development into the future, there’s less projects but more tree count per project. So I think again the early engagement pre-feed activities and feed activities are really going to be critical to driving some of the efficiency in this area from capital deployment.
Steven Winoker – Sanford C. Bernstein & Company:
Okay. And the pricing, outlook for pricing?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
I think we still feel that pricing -- the demand for the future is still increasing. So it’s really about delivery cycle at this point in time.
Steven Winoker – Sanford C. Bernstein & Company:
Okay. On Healthcare, the pricing in Healthcare. I guess, Jeff, how should we think about this? Do you see this as any kind of structural change in the industry? Is this a function in the Americas, in North America, of the transition we’re all going through in hospitals? And can you maybe give us some color on how we should think about this?
Jeffrey Immelt :
Steve, I think that’s a good question. I’d say first, if you look outside the U.S, the markets are all normal with Europe bouncing back and the growth markets still pretty strong. I think it’s too soon to say on just the impact of the Affordable Care Act. There’s just so damn much going on in the U.S healthcare market right now. We’re thinking about the next couple of years as being flood to up slightly. So, we are not really thinking much about robust growth and more industry consolidation of hospital systems, more integration between insurers and hospitals. So there’s just a ton going on in the industry. At the same time when you launch a new product like the Revolution CT like we’re launching in the second quarter, it’s going to build a huge backlog. It’s going to have positive growth. And so with all the stuff that’s going on in the industry, when you have new technology, you still can differentiate yourself and you still get good growth and good margins. I think we’re just wait and see and watch how the industry evolves.
Steven Winoker – Sanford C. Bernstein & Company:
Okay. And I can I just sneak one in for Jeff Bornstein? Or maybe it’s two, I suppose. But this tax rate that we got this quarter, should we think about that us more normalized now? And also were the orders -- have those Algerian orders come through yet in the official order numbers?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
Yes. The tax rate -- I think what I said was we still expect the industrials tax rate to be about 20% and we still expect the GE Capital tax rate to be single digits in the year. I don’t think our view of taxes has changed at all for the total year. The Algerian units and the mega deal are in our orders book.
Jeffrey Immelt :
But I think, Steve, if you look at heavy duty gas turbine orders, I think we said in December what, 125 or something like that. I think we are tracking at least to that. This is a slightly improving market is what I would say, broadly speaking.
Jeffrey Bornstein:
I want to clear up one thing before we move on to the next question. On energy financing I think Jeff Sprague asked me on gains and energy finance. I think I said 150. It was 120. That’s about 60 higher year over year. That was partly offset by about $100 million of increased higher requirements this year versus last year so I just wanted to make sure that was clear.
Matthew Cribbins:
We know everyone has a busy morning. Ellen, why don’t we take one more question?
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question comes from Nigel Cole with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley:
Thanks. Good morning and thanks for fitting me in. Jeff, you mentioned the H frame, which is obviously a very important product. You mentioned two commitments. Were they US commitments? And then dovetailing on the back of your comments about a gradually improving market, what are you seeing in the US right now in terms of the front-log for 2015 and 2016?
Jeffrey Immelt:
The answer I think to the first question is, No and the answer to the second question I think is just slow improvement in the US, starting with Peakers. We haven’t seen big demand for base load units yet but a ton more interest in the US than we’ve seen in the last few years. That’s the way I would describe it Nigel.
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley:
Okay. Okay, great. Moving on to GECAS, assets are down by about 10% from early last year. And I’m wondering; what do you think is the right level for assets in GECAS? Is there a longer tail of decapitalization within GECAS going forward?
Jeffrey Bornstein:
The GECAS business order magnitude is roughly the size over to the context of GE capital and company but it’s probably going to be long-term, plus or minus. They’ll continue to originate, they’ll continue to grow. I talked about their volume in the first quarter being very strong year over year at very attractive returns so they’ll continue to be very active and write new business. At the same time they’ll continue to prune the portfolio they have and that allows them, it creates the capacity for them to continue to be in the market and right volume. Assets year over year I think were flat for GECAS so…
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley:
I think they’re down 8% year over year but I can check that. Then just, Jeff, on the -- you mentioned $1.8 billion run rate for GE Capital for the quarter going forward. That is actually slightly above the $7 billion placeholder for the year. Do you think there is more of an upside bias to that $7 billion at this stage?
Jeffrey Bornstein:No. :
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley:
Understood. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey Immelt:
Great. Thanks, thanks everybody.
Matthew Cribbins:
Thank you. The replay of today’s webcast will be available this afternoon on our website. We’ll be distributing our quarterly supplemental data for GE Capital later today. I have some announcements regarding upcoming investor events. Next Wednesday, April 23 is our 2014 annual share owners meeting in Chicago. We hope to see you there. On Wednesday may 21, Jeff Immelt will present the 2014 EPG conference and finally our second quarter 2014 earnings webcast will be on Friday July 18. As always we’ll be available today to take questions. Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.