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Honeywell International Inc. logo
Honeywell International Inc.
HON · US · NASDAQ
196.73
USD
-0.06
(0.03%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Victor J. Miller Vice President, Deputy General Counsel & Chief Compliance Officer --
Dr. Lucian Boldea Ph.D. President & Chief Executive Officer of Industrial Automation 1.96M
Mr. James Currier President & Chief Executive Officer of Aerospace Technologies 1.41M
Mr. Vimal M. Kapur Chairman & Chief Executive Officer 4.08M
Mr. Gregory Peter Lewis Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 2.16M
Ms. Anne T. Madden Senior Vice President & General Counsel 2.04M
Mr. Harsh Bansal Vice President of Investments --
Mr. Robert D. Mailloux Vice President, Controller & Principal Accounting Officer --
Mr. Suresh Venkatarayalu Senior Vice President and Chief Technology & Innovation Officer --
Mr. Sean Christopher Meakim C.F.A. Vice President of Investor Relations --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-01-01 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-02-26 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 813 154.22
2024-02-14 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 1946 180.92
2025-02-12 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 2856 202.72
2026-02-11 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 4324 189.72
2027-02-23 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 4034 194.31
2024-01-01 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Restricted Stock Units 2748 0
2023-02-26 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 813 154.22
2024-02-14 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 1946 180.92
2025-02-12 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 2856 202.72
2026-02-11 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 4324 189.72
2027-02-23 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 4034 194.31
2024-01-01 West Kenneth J President and CEO, ESS D - Restricted Stock Units 2748 0
2024-01-02 AYER WILLIAM S director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 287.08 0
2024-01-02 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 448.564 0
2024-01-02 BURKE KEVIN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 287.08 0
2024-01-02 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 370.817 0
2024-01-02 Lieblein Grace director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 49.613 0
2024-01-02 Lieblein Grace director D - S-Sale Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 237.4619 0
2024-01-02 DAVIS D SCOTT director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 287.08 0
2024-01-02 Lee Rose director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 442.584 0
2024-01-02 Watson Robin director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 287.08 0
2024-01-02 LAMACH MICHAEL W director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 287.08 0
2024-01-02 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 450.465 0
2023-12-01 LAMACH MICHAEL W director I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-12-01 LAMACH MICHAEL W director D - Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 25.9063 0
2023-12-01 LAMACH MICHAEL W director D - Stock Option (right to buy) 599 196.71
2023-12-01 LAMACH MICHAEL W director D - Restricted Stock Units 152 0
2023-11-22 Adamczyk Darius director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 157561 98.7
2023-11-22 Adamczyk Darius director D - F-InKind Common Stock 115278 191.58
2023-11-22 Adamczyk Darius director D - S-Sale Common Stock 41000 191.72
2023-11-22 Adamczyk Darius director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 157561 98.7
2023-11-17 Washington Robin L director D - G-Gift Common Stock 1615 0
2023-11-20 DAVIS D SCOTT director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3164 97.92
2023-11-20 DAVIS D SCOTT director D - F-InKind Common Stock 2395 190.73
2023-11-20 DAVIS D SCOTT director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3164 97.92
2023-11-15 BURKE KEVIN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1284 87.96
2023-11-15 BURKE KEVIN director D - F-InKind Common Stock 859 190.35
2023-11-15 BURKE KEVIN director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1284 87.96
2023-11-08 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1095 0
2023-11-08 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT D - F-InKind Common Stock 449 185.33
2023-11-08 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1095 0
2023-11-03 Washington Robin L director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2568 87.96
2023-11-03 Washington Robin L director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1927 188.92
2023-11-03 Washington Robin L director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2568 87.96
2023-10-10 Koutsaftes George officer - 0 0
2023-10-03 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2044 0
2023-10-03 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 909 181.48
2023-10-03 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2044 0
2023-10-03 BOLDEA LUCIAN President and CEO, PMT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 9725 0
2023-10-03 BOLDEA LUCIAN President and CEO, PMT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9725 0
2023-10-03 BOLDEA LUCIAN President and CEO, PMT D - F-InKind Common Stock 3828 181.48
2023-10-02 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 157.443 0
2023-10-02 Lee Rose director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 150.599 0
2023-10-02 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 164.287 0
2023-10-02 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 150.598 0
2023-08-29 BURKE KEVIN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1284 87.96
2023-08-29 BURKE KEVIN director D - F-InKind Common Stock 859 187.88
2023-08-29 BURKE KEVIN director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1284 87.96
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 20552 193.88
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3998 0
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace D - Restricted Stock Units 742 0
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 1671 148.79
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 2520 154.22
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 3893 180.92
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 2908 202.72
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 4324 189.72
2023-08-01 Currier James E President & CEO, Aerospace D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 3719 194.31
2023-07-31 Adamczyk Darius director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20543 0
2023-07-31 Adamczyk Darius director D - F-InKind Common Stock 9130 194.47
2023-07-31 Adamczyk Darius director D - M-Exempt Performance-Based Restricted Stock Units 20543 0
2023-07-29 Madsen Michael R Former President & CEO, AEROF A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2056 0
2023-07-29 Madsen Michael R Former President & CEO, AEROF D - F-InKind Common Stock 912 196.61
2023-07-29 Madsen Michael R Former President & CEO, AEROF D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2056 0
2023-07-29 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3288 0
2023-07-29 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1462 196.61
2023-07-29 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3288 0
2023-07-28 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1349 0
2023-07-29 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 590 0
2023-07-29 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - F-InKind Common Stock 263 196.61
2023-07-28 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - F-InKind Common Stock 600 196.61
2023-07-28 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1349 0
2023-07-29 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 590 0
2023-07-27 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2001 0
2023-07-27 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO D - F-InKind Common Stock 888 199.89
2023-07-27 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2001 0
2023-07-27 Kapur Vimal Chief Executive Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2001 0
2023-07-27 Kapur Vimal Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 895 199.89
2023-07-27 Kapur Vimal Chief Executive Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2001 0
2023-07-27 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1600 0
2023-07-27 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - F-InKind Common Stock 712 199.89
2023-07-27 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1600 0
2023-07-25 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3080 0
2023-07-25 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1367 208.71
2023-07-25 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3080 0
2023-07-03 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 138.024 0
2023-07-03 Lee Rose director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 132.021 0
2023-07-03 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 144.027 0
2023-07-03 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 132.021 0
2023-06-01 Kapur Vimal Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 28592 192.39
2023-06-01 Kapur Vimal Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 5380 0
2023-05-19 Watson Robin director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1309 198.66
2023-05-19 Watson Robin director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 328 0
2023-05-19 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1309 198.66
2023-05-19 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 328 0
2023-05-19 Lieblein Grace director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1309 198.66
2023-05-19 Lieblein Grace director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 328 0
2023-05-19 Lee Rose director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1309 198.66
2023-05-19 Lee Rose director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 328 0
2023-05-19 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1309 198.66
2023-05-19 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 328 0
2023-05-19 DAVIS D SCOTT director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1309 198.66
2023-05-19 DAVIS D SCOTT director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 328 0
2023-05-19 BURKE KEVIN director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1309 198.66
2023-05-19 BURKE KEVIN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 328 0
2023-05-19 AYER WILLIAM S director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1309 198.66
2023-05-19 AYER WILLIAM S director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 328 0
2023-05-19 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1309 198.66
2023-05-19 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 328 0
2023-05-08 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 14705 98.7
2023-05-08 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 12603 98.93
2023-05-08 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 10652 197.22
2023-05-08 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 6500 197.46
2023-05-08 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 9138 197.22
2023-05-08 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3938 89.48
2023-05-08 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2750 197.22
2023-05-08 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3938 89.48
2023-05-08 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 12603 98.93
2023-05-08 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 14705 98.7
2023-05-03 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23107 98.93
2023-05-03 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 16660 199.01
2023-05-03 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 23107 98.93
2023-04-24 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 6671 197.18
2023-04-24 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1268 0
2023-04-15 BURKE KEVIN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 349 196.49
2023-04-15 BURKE KEVIN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 349 0
2023-04-15 Watson Robin director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 234 196.49
2023-04-15 Watson Robin director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 234 0
2023-04-15 Washington Robin L director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 349 196.49
2023-04-15 Washington Robin L director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 349 0
2023-04-15 Lieblein Grace director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 349 196.49
2023-04-15 Lieblein Grace director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 349 0
2023-04-15 Lee Rose director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 349 196.49
2023-04-15 Lee Rose director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 349 0
2023-04-15 Flint Deborah director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 349 196.49
2023-04-15 Flint Deborah director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 349 0
2023-04-15 DAVIS D SCOTT director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 349 196.49
2023-04-15 DAVIS D SCOTT director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 349 0
2023-04-15 AYER WILLIAM S director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 349 196.49
2023-04-15 AYER WILLIAM S director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 349 0
2023-04-15 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 349 196.49
2023-04-15 ANGOVE DUNCAN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 349 0
2023-04-01 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-04-01 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-04-01 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 4476 194.31
2023-04-01 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 5351 189.72
2023-04-01 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 4797 226.31
2023-04-01 Hammoud Billal President & CEO, HBT D - Restricted Stock Units 730 0
2023-04-03 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 148.753 0
2023-04-03 Lee Rose director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 142.275 0
2023-04-03 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 142.275 0
2023-04-03 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 142.275 0
2023-03-31 Wright Doug officer - 0 0
2023-02-26 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1206 0
2023-02-26 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 537 192.34
2023-02-26 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1206 0
2023-02-26 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1206 0
2023-02-26 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 537 192.34
2023-02-26 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1206 0
2023-02-26 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4543 0
2023-02-26 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2020 192.34
2023-02-26 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4543 0
2023-02-26 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 603 0
2023-02-26 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 262 192.34
2023-02-26 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 603 0
2023-02-14 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1660 0
2023-02-14 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 761 200.89
2023-02-14 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1660 0
2023-02-14 Mailloux Robert D. Vice President & Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1464 0
2023-02-14 Mailloux Robert D. Vice President & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 677 200.89
2023-02-14 Mailloux Robert D. Vice President & Controller D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1464 0
2023-02-14 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1269 0
2023-02-14 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - F-InKind Common Stock 480 200.89
2023-02-14 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1269 0
2023-02-14 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3492 0
2023-02-14 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 1071 200.89
2023-02-14 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3492 0
2023-02-14 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 9751 0
2023-02-14 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 4352 200.89
2023-02-14 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - A-Award Common Stock 4748 0
2023-02-14 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2156 200.89
2023-02-14 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO A - A-Award Common Stock 4610 0
2023-02-14 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2067 200.89
2023-02-14 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 9751 0
2023-02-14 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 4352 200.89
2023-02-14 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 31545 0
2023-02-14 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 14019 200.89
2022-12-31 Kapur Vimal President & COO I - Common Stock 0 0
2022-12-31 Kapur Vimal President & COO I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-02-12 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 650 0
2023-02-12 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 650 0
2023-02-12 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 271 199.6
2023-02-12 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 411 0
2023-02-12 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 205 199.6
2023-02-12 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 411 0
2023-02-10 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 36960 199.6
2023-02-10 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 7390 0
2023-02-12 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3768 0
2023-02-12 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1675 199.6
2023-02-12 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3768 0
2023-02-12 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1164 0
2023-02-12 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 532 199.6
2023-02-12 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1164 0
2023-02-12 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1164 0
2023-02-12 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 532 199.6
2023-02-12 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1164 0
2023-02-12 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 787 0
2023-02-12 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO D - F-InKind Common Stock 367 199.6
2023-02-12 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 787 0
2023-02-10 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 112755 199.6
2023-02-10 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 22545 0
2023-02-10 BOLDEA LUCIAN President and CEO, PMT A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 23805 199.6
2023-02-10 BOLDEA LUCIAN President and CEO, PMT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4760 0
2023-02-10 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 12530 199.6
2023-02-10 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2505 0
2023-02-10 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 19420 199.6
2023-02-10 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3880 0
2023-02-10 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 34270 199.6
2023-02-10 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6850 0
2023-02-10 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 31225 199.6
2023-02-10 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6245 0
2023-02-10 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 24430 199.6
2023-02-10 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4885 0
2023-02-10 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 11840 199.6
2023-02-10 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2365 0
2023-01-03 Lieblein Grace director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 279.9813 214.3
2023-01-03 Lieblein Grace director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 279.9813 0
2023-01-03 Lieblein Grace director D - S-Sale Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 231.73 0
2023-01-03 Watson Robin director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 279.984 0
2023-01-03 Watson Robin director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 279.984 214.3
2023-01-03 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 414.1373 214.3
2023-01-03 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 414.1373 0
2023-01-03 Lee Rose director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 408.3095 214.3
2023-01-03 Lee Rose director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 408.3095 0
2023-01-03 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 408.3094 214.3
2023-01-03 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 408.3094 0
2023-01-03 DAVIS D SCOTT director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 279.9843 214.3
2023-01-03 DAVIS D SCOTT director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 279.9843 0
2023-01-03 BURKE KEVIN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 279.9843 214.3
2023-01-03 BURKE KEVIN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 279.9843 0
2023-01-03 AYER WILLIAM S director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 279.984 0
2023-01-03 AYER WILLIAM S director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 279.984 214.3
2023-01-03 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 408.3095 214.3
2023-01-03 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 408.3095 0
2022-11-18 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6301 66.43
2022-11-18 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - F-InKind Common Stock 4185 214.1694
2022-07-30 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1360 0
2022-07-30 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - F-InKind Common Stock 697 191
2022-11-18 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - S-Sale Common Stock 5420 214.1694
2022-07-30 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1360 0
2022-11-18 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6301 0
2022-11-18 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6301 66.43
2022-11-15 DAVIS D SCOTT director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2568 87.96
2022-11-15 DAVIS D SCOTT director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1810 214.96
2022-11-15 DAVIS D SCOTT director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2568 0
2022-11-15 DAVIS D SCOTT director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2568 87.96
2022-11-11 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 26259 98.93
2022-11-11 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 18482 212.6251
2022-11-11 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 26259 98.93
2022-11-11 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 26259 0
2022-11-08 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 157561 98.93
2022-11-08 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 111175 211.0927
2022-11-08 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 40520 211.2004
2022-11-08 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 157561 98.93
2022-11-08 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 157561 0
2022-11-07 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 7500 207.4612
2022-11-07 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3938 89.48
2022-11-07 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3938 0
2022-11-07 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3938 89.48
2022-11-07 Kapur Vimal President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2712 207.3301
2022-11-08 BURKE KEVIN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 788 70.9
2022-11-08 BURKE KEVIN director D - F-InKind Common Stock 462 209.33
2022-11-08 BURKE KEVIN director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 788 0
2022-11-08 BURKE KEVIN director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 788 70.9
2022-11-07 AYER WILLIAM S director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3164 97.92
2022-11-07 AYER WILLIAM S director D - F-InKind Common Stock 2105 210
2022-11-07 AYER WILLIAM S director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3164 0
2022-11-07 AYER WILLIAM S director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3164 97.92
2022-11-01 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9452 98.7
2022-11-01 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6765 202.4556
2022-11-01 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1822 202.4556
2022-11-01 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 9452 0
2022-11-01 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 9452 98.7
2022-11-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE A - M-Exempt Common stock 5559 0
2022-11-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 2508 203.3
2022-11-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3608 0
2022-11-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 1628 203.3
2022-11-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5559 0
2022-10-23 Paz George director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 346 0
2022-10-23 Paz George director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 346 0
2022-10-07 Flint Deborah director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 181 172.27
2022-10-07 Flint Deborah director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 181 0
2022-10-03 BOLDEA LUCIAN President and CEO, PMT A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 35187 171.73
2022-10-03 BOLDEA LUCIAN President and CEO, PMT A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 35187 0
2022-10-03 BOLDEA LUCIAN President and CEO, PMT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 23817 0
2022-10-03 BOLDEA LUCIAN President and CEO, PMT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2970 0
2022-10-03 BOLDEA LUCIAN President and CEO, PMT D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-10-03 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 83.074 173.04
2022-10-03 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 83.074 0
2022-10-03 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 79.4607 173.04
2022-10-03 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 79.4607 0
2022-10-03 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 158.9214 173.04
2022-10-03 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 158.9214 0
2022-09-01 Watson Robin director D - Stock Option (right to buy) 970 189.84
2022-09-01 Watson Robin director D - Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 105.6405 0
2022-09-01 Watson Robin director D - Restricted Stock Units 231 0
2022-08-12 BURKE KEVIN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 788 70.9
2022-08-12 BURKE KEVIN D - F-InKind Common Stock 475 199.33
2022-08-12 BURKE KEVIN director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 788 70.9
2022-08-12 BURKE KEVIN D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 788 0
2022-08-04 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 21007 89.48
2022-08-04 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 14790 192.02
2022-08-04 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 21007 89.48
2022-08-04 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 21007 0
2022-07-31 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1646 0
2022-07-31 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 732 191
2022-07-31 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1646 0
2022-07-30 Wright Doug President & CEO, HBT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2290 0
2022-07-30 Wright Doug President & CEO, HBT D - F-InKind Common Stock 1034 191
2022-07-30 Wright Doug President & CEO, HBT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2290 0
2022-07-28 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 21007 89.48
2022-07-28 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 5011 190
2022-07-31 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2057 0
2022-07-28 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 915 191
2022-07-28 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 14845 190.09
2022-07-28 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2057 0
2022-07-28 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 21007 89.48
2022-07-28 Wright Doug President & CEO, HBT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 7929 0
2022-07-28 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 20846 189.18
2022-07-28 Kapur Vimal President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1586 0
2022-07-28 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 5286 0
2022-07-27 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1678 0
2022-07-27 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 746 182.29
2022-07-27 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1678 0
2022-07-26 Mailloux Robert D. Vice President & Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1220 0
2022-07-26 Mailloux Robert D. Vice President & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 543 181.97
2022-07-26 Mailloux Robert D. Vice President & Controller D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1220 0
2022-07-01 Washington Robin L A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 82.0913 175.11
2022-07-01 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 82.0913 0
2022-07-01 Flint Deborah A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 78.5221 175.11
2022-07-01 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 78.5221 0
2022-07-01 ANGOVE DUNCAN A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 157.0441 175.11
2022-07-01 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 157.0441 0
2022-05-12 BURKE KEVIN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 788 70.9
2022-05-12 BURKE KEVIN D - F-InKind Common Stock 475 190.98
2022-05-12 BURKE KEVIN director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 788 70.9
2022-05-12 BURKE KEVIN D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 788 0
2022-05-10 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 147058 89.48
2022-05-10 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 103000 194.76
2022-05-10 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 40000 194.52
2022-05-10 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 147058 0
2022-05-10 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 147058 89.48
2022-05-09 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7352 98.93
2022-05-09 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7352 89.48
2022-05-09 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 10526 193.3667
2022-05-09 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 7352 0
2022-05-09 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 7352 89.48
2022-05-09 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 7352 98.93
2022-05-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-05-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE I - Common Stock 0 0
2022-05-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 27891 175.11
2022-05-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 27838 180.92
2022-05-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 18567 202.72
2022-05-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 19326 189.72
2022-05-01 Dehoff Kevin President and CEO, HCE D - Restricted Stock Units 3142 0
2022-05-01 Dallara Que - 0 0
2022-04-29 Washington Robin L A - M-Exempt Common Stock 307 197.43
2022-04-29 Washington Robin L director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 307 0
2022-04-29 Paz George A - M-Exempt Common Stock 307 197.43
2022-04-29 Paz George director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 307 0
2022-04-29 Lieblein Grace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 307 197.43
2022-04-29 Lieblein Grace director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 307 0
2022-04-29 DAVIS D SCOTT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 307 197.43
2022-04-29 DAVIS D SCOTT director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 307 0
2022-04-29 BURKE KEVIN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 307 197.43
2022-04-29 BURKE KEVIN D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 307 0
2022-04-29 AYER WILLIAM S director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 307 197.43
2022-04-29 AYER WILLIAM S D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 307 0
2022-04-29 ANGOVE DUNCAN A - M-Exempt Common Stock 307 197.43
2022-04-29 ANGOVE DUNCAN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 307 0
2022-04-25 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 189.62
2022-04-25 Washington Robin L A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 343 0
2022-04-25 Paz George director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 189.62
2022-04-25 Paz George A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 343 0
2022-04-25 Lieblein Grace director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 189.62
2022-04-25 Lieblein Grace A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 343 0
2022-04-25 Lee Rose director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 189.62
2022-04-25 Lee Rose A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 343 0
2022-04-25 Flint Deborah A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 0
2022-04-25 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 189.62
2022-04-25 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 343 0
2022-04-25 DAVIS D SCOTT director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 189.62
2022-04-25 DAVIS D SCOTT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 343 0
2022-04-25 BURKE KEVIN A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 0
2022-04-25 BURKE KEVIN director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 189.62
2022-04-25 BURKE KEVIN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 343 0
2022-04-25 AYER WILLIAM S A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 0
2022-04-25 AYER WILLIAM S director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 189.62
2022-04-25 AYER WILLIAM S director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 343 0
2022-04-25 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Stock Option (right to buy) 1472 189.62
2022-04-25 ANGOVE DUNCAN A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 343 0
2022-04-15 Washington Robin L director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 295 195.81
2022-04-15 Washington Robin L D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 295 0
2022-04-15 Paz George A - M-Exempt Common Stock 295 195.81
2022-04-15 Paz George director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 295 0
2022-04-15 Lieblein Grace director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 295 195.81
2022-04-15 Lieblein Grace D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 295 0
2022-04-15 Lee Rose director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 88 195.81
2022-04-15 Lee Rose D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 88 0
2022-04-15 Gregg Judd A. director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 295 195.81
2022-04-15 Gregg Judd A. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 295 0
2022-04-15 Flint Deborah director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 295 195.81
2022-04-15 Flint Deborah D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 295 0
2022-04-15 DAVIS D SCOTT director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 295 195.81
2022-04-15 DAVIS D SCOTT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 295 0
2022-04-15 BURKE KEVIN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 295 195.81
2022-04-15 BURKE KEVIN D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 295 0
2022-04-15 AYER WILLIAM S A - M-Exempt Common Stock 295 195.81
2022-04-15 AYER WILLIAM S director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 295 0
2022-04-15 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 295 195.81
2022-04-15 ANGOVE DUNCAN D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 295 0
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS I - Common Stock 0 0
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 9399 148.79
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 10064 154.22
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 10120 180.92
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 7425 202.72
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 25500 189.72
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Restricted Stock Units 1700 0
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 6301 66.43
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 6301 89.48
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 7352 98.93
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 8088 98.7
2022-04-01 Koutsaftes George President and CEO, SPS D - Employee Stock Options (right to buy) 8877 119.69
2022-04-01 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 146.6612 0
2022-04-01 Washington Robin L A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 146.6612 196.03
2022-04-01 Gregg Judd A. A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 54.306 196.03
2022-04-01 Gregg Judd A. director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 54.306 0
2022-04-01 Flint Deborah A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 140.2847 196.03
2022-04-01 Flint Deborah director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 140.2847 0
2022-04-01 ANGOVE DUNCAN director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 140.2847 0
2022-04-01 ANGOVE DUNCAN A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 140.2847 196.03
2022-04-01 Waldron John F. - 0 0
2022-03-10 Paz George director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3072 56.08
2022-03-10 Paz George D - F-InKind Common Stock 945 183.41
2022-03-10 Paz George D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3072 0
2022-03-10 Paz George director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3072 56.08
2022-02-26 Kapur Vimal President & CEO, PMT A - A-Award Common Stock 2869 0
2022-02-26 Kapur Vimal President & CEO, PMT D - F-InKind Common Stock 1294 186.9
2022-02-26 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1820 0
2022-02-26 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 814 186.9
2022-02-26 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1820 0
2022-02-26 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3493 0
2022-02-26 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1550 186.9
2022-02-26 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3493 0
2022-02-26 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 5044 0
2022-02-26 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2255 186.9
2022-02-26 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 18984 0
2022-02-27 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7603 0
2022-02-27 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3399 186.9
2022-02-26 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8486 186.9
2022-02-27 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7603 0
2022-02-26 Waldron John F. President & CEO, SPS A - A-Award Common Stock 4744 0
2022-02-27 Waldron John F. President & CEO, SPS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1594 0
2022-02-27 Waldron John F. President & CEO, SPS D - F-InKind Common Stock 713 186.9
2022-02-26 Waldron John F. President & CEO, SPS D - F-InKind Common Stock 2121 186.9
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2022-02-26 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 5044 0
2022-02-27 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1705 0
2022-02-27 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 763 186.9
2022-02-26 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 2255 186.9
2022-02-27 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1705 0
2022-02-26 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE A - A-Award Common Stock 4383 0
2022-02-27 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1186 0
2022-02-27 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 536 186.9
2022-02-26 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 1977 186.9
2022-02-27 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1186 0
2022-02-25 BURKE KEVIN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 788 70.9
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2022-02-25 BURKE KEVIN director D - M-Exempt Stock Option (Right to Buy) 788 70.9
2022-02-14 Waldron John F. President & CEO, SPS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 994 0
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2022-02-14 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 788 0
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2022-02-14 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 788 0
2022-02-14 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1199 0
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2022-02-14 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1199 0
2022-02-14 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1199 0
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2022-02-14 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1199 0
2022-02-14 Kapur Vimal President & CEO, PMT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 582 0
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2022-02-14 Kapur Vimal President & CEO, PMT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 582 0
2022-02-14 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 994 0
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2022-02-14 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 994 0
2022-02-14 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3976 0
2022-02-14 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1778 186.48
2022-02-14 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3976 0
2022-02-11 Wright Doug President & CEO, HBT A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 18100 189.72
2022-02-11 Wright Doug President & CEO, HBT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1200 0
2022-02-11 Waldron John F. President & CEO, SPS A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 25500 189.72
2022-02-11 Waldron John F. President & CEO, SPS A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1700 0
2022-02-11 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 20400 189.72
2022-02-11 Mattimore Karen SrVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1400 0
2022-02-11 Mailloux Robert D. Vice President & Controller A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 8647 189.72
2022-02-11 Mailloux Robert D. Vice President & Controller A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1406 0
2022-02-11 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 44200 189.72
2022-02-11 Madsen Michael R President & CEO, AERO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3000 0
2022-02-11 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 54900 189.72
2022-02-11 Madden Anne T SrVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3800 0
2022-02-11 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 54900 189.72
2022-02-11 Lewis Gregory P SrVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3800 0
2022-02-11 Kapur Vimal President & CEO, PMT A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 44200 189.72
2022-02-11 Kapur Vimal President & CEO, PMT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3000 0
2022-02-11 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 44200 189.72
2022-02-11 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3000 0
2022-02-11 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 181500 189.72
2022-02-11 Adamczyk Darius Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 12600 0
2022-01-18 Lee Rose director D - Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 267 0
2022-01-18 Lee Rose director D - Stock Option (right to buy) 423 214
2022-01-18 Lee Rose director D - Restricted Stock Units 88 0
2022-01-13 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 924 0
2022-01-13 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 444 219.98
2022-01-13 Dallara Que President & CEO, HCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 924 0
2022-01-03 Washington Robin L director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation (Phantom Shares) 356.6975 0
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Transcripts
Operator:
Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Honeywell Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation there will be a question-and-answer session. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapur; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our Investor Relations website. From time-to-time we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website. Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our business as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties including the ones described in our SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the second quarter share our guidance for the third quarter and provide an update on full year 2024. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Vimal Kapur.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Second quarter was another strong one for Honeywell. We exceeded the high end of our adjusted earnings per share guidance and achieved the high end of our organic sales guidance ranges. While aerospace continues to lead our growth, we are seeing broader participation across our portfolio. Three of our four strategic business groups contributed positive growth for the quarter, and we saw sequential improvement in growth rate from all four. Order rates were healthy across Honeywell, supporting our expectation of further organic growth acceleration into back half of the year. We are adding attractive new assets to our already compelling technology portfolio, which will enable us to create further value for our customers and shareholders alike. Let me take a few minutes to restate my priority as Chairman and CEO of Honeywell before we get into more detailed discussion on the second quarter 2024 results and update on our full 2024 year expectations. First, our key priority remains accelerating organic sales growth to deliver upper end of our long-term target range of 4% to 7%. In order to achieve this, we are enhancing how we think about our new product innovation, monetizing our vast installed base, accelerating software offerings and improving our leadership position in high-growth regions. As an early read on these efforts, our self help actions and aftermarket services are demonstrating favorable proof points, double-digit growth in the second quarter and accretive growth even when excluding aerospace. In fact, I'm pleased to highlight that our total Honeywell grew volume in the second quarter, and we expect further volume acceleration in the second half. Second, of the strength of our contemporary digital foundation, we are transforming how we run Honeywell through the latest version of our Honeywell Accelerator operating system. We are standardizing our business model to drive incremental value, enhancing our growth capabilities. Our integrated operating system principles enable us to deploy world-class digital supply chain and technology development capabilities at scale, along with multiple growth drivers that benefit the entire enterprise. For example, we are leveraging our digital capabilities and demand planning to more closely match production and material management, enabling us to capture incremental inventory improvement and reduce working capital intensity. We are also leveraging generative AI to maximize the potential benefit of our operating system, both for our customers and ourselves. As anticipated, Accelerator is proving to be a powerful source of profitable growth across all our businesses as an important tool to successfully integrate the recent addition to our portfolio. Third, we are excited about our progress on our portfolio optimization goals. We are demonstrating a commitment to accelerate deal flow through multiple strategic bolt-on acquisition in the $1 billion to $7 billion range in order to upgrade the quality of our business and financial profile. These acquisitions are aligned to three compelling megatrends around which we are focusing Honeywell, automation, the future of aviation and energy transition. The additions combined with a modest abstraction of non-core lines of business that are not aligned to these trends will enable us to accelerate value creation for our shareholders. Last, as we aim for ways to simplify and accelerate growth at Honeywell, we are taking our Honeywell Connected Enterprise strategy to the next stage by seamlessly integrating SCE [ph] into our strategic business groups. In 2018, we formed SCE to enable the creation of one unified industry-leading IoT forge platform to support the digital transformation for our customers. Over the last few years, we have been increasingly focused on scaling our commercial offering to deliver outcome-based solution in performance, sustainability and security. We are maintaining our robust software development expertise at the center and SCE Version 3.0 will more deeply integrate those centralized capabilities within our segment level commercial teams. This will deliver even better outcomes to our customers and drive sustained accretive software growth across the portfolio. As we demonstrate further progress against these priorities, we expect to deliver on our long-term financial algorithm and generate superior value for our shareholders. In the spirit of that progress, let's turn to Slide 3 to discuss our recent acquisition announcements. Our top M&A priority remains targeting bolt-on acquisition, as evidenced by our recent announcement. We are creating a flywheel of teams that strategically add to our technological capabilities, enhance our alignment to our three compelling megatrends and provide accretive growth that supports Honeywell's overall long-term financial framework. Let's discuss our recent deals in a bit more detail. Earlier this month, we announced our intention to acquire Air Products liquefied natural gas processing technology and equipment business for approximately $1.8 billion in all cash transactions. With this addition, Honeywell will be able to offer customers end-to-end solutions that optimize the management of natural gas assets. Currently, Honeywell provides a pre-treatment solution serving LNG customers globally and automation technology unified under the Honeywell Forge and Experion platforms. Air Products' complementary LNG business consists of comprehensive portfolio, including in-house design and manufacturing of coil-bound heat exchangers and related equipment. This acquisition will bolster our energy transition portfolio within energy and sustainability solutions. The LNG technology will immediately expand our installed base, creating new opportunities to compound growth in aftermarket services and digitalization through Honeywell Forge. Notably, this is the fourth acquisition Honeywell has announced this year as part of our disciplined capital deployment strategy, adding a business with accretive economics at an attractive valuation. In June, we announced the acquisition of CAES Systems or CAES for short from private equity firm, Advent International for $1.9 billion enhancing Honeywell's defense technology solution across land, sea, air and space. This business will enable us to provide new electromagnetic defense solutions for end-to-end radio frequency signal management for critical existing and emerging U.S. DoD platforms, which are forecasted to grow significantly at accretive rates in years to come. We are excited that this is the second aerospace-focused transaction we have announced this year, underscoring our alignment to the future of Aviation. The business adds state-of-the-art advanced manufacturing capabilities, impressive engineering talent and potential for significant commercial opportunities in international defense. Also in June, we completed the acquisition of Carrier's Global Access Solutions business, which positions the Honeywell as a leading provider of security solution for the digital age with opportunities for accelerating innovation and fast-growing cloud-enabled services. Honeywell will also benefit from businesses attractive growth and margin profile, valuable software content and accretive mix of recurring revenue with forecasted annual sales in excess of $1 billion when combined with our existing security portfolio. We are happy to welcome the Access Solutions team to Honeywell's Building Automation business. Together, the combination will build our long track record of delivering high-value critical building automation products, solutions and services to our customers globally. As we turn our attention to ensuring a steeples [ph] integration of the business into our portfolio, we'll utilize our multi facet tools of our accelerated operating system to streamline processes, digitalize operation and manifest the anticipated synergies that help make the deal compelling from a top and bottom line perspective. Cumulatively, the bolt-on acquisition of the past year represents over $2 billion of incremental annualized revenue with growth profiles well in excess of Honeywell's growth algorithm of 4% to 7%. Collectively, these deal represents an accretive margin profile to our current portfolio at valuation below of our own before factoring any expected sales synergies. Before I hand it off to Greg, I'll turn to Slide 4 to review our progress on overall capital deployment commitments. We are very excited to demonstrate significant progress on the commitment I made to you during the last May at Investor Day when we re-upped our intention to deploy at least $25 billion of capital in 2023 through 2025. With accelerated M&A deal activity this year, we have already deployed and committed approximately $10 billion acquisitions and approximately $5 billion of share buyback, exceeding our minimum pledge of $13 billion over a year early. However, this does not mean our work is done. Our robust balance sheet capacity provides us with the flexibility to allocate capital to accretive M&A, opportunistic share purchases and high-return growth capital. As the deal environment remains favorable, we will continue to reshape the portfolio by building on our already strong pipeline of high-value M&A opportunities as well as strategically proven [ph] select non-core assets. Into Honeywell fashion, you can expect us to maintain disciplined approach to generate highest return combination of capital deployment. Now let me turn over to Greg on Slide 5 to discuss the second quarter results in more detail as we provide our views on third quarter and full year 2024 guidance.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Vimal, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on Slide 5. As a reminder, starting in the second quarter, we began excluding the impact of amortization expense for acquisition-related intangible assets and certain acquisition-related costs, including the related tax effects from segment profit and adjusted earnings per share. We believe this change provides investors with a more meaningful measure of our performance period to period, aligns the measure to how we evaluate performance internally and makes it easier to compare our performance to peers. In addition, our second quarter building automation results incorporate approximately 1 month of impact from the acquisition of Access Solution. With that, let's discuss our results. We delivered another strong quarter in a dynamic macro environment, meeting the high end of our organic sales range, landing above the midpoint of our segment margin guidance and exceeding the high end of our adjusted earnings per share guidance. Second quarter organic sales were up 4% year-over-year, supported by 16% organic growth in Aerospace Technologies, driven by another quarter of double-digit growth in both commercial aerospace and defense and space in addition to double-digit growth in our Building Solutions business Honeywell grew volumes by 1% for the second time in the past 10 quarters, and we expect further volume acceleration in the second half. Segment profit grew 4% year-over-year and segment margin contracted by 10 basis points to 23% as expansion in energy and sustainability solutions was offset by mix pressures in our other three businesses. Earnings per share for the second quarter was $2.36, up 6% year-over-year and adjusted earnings per share was $2.49, up 8% year-over-year, driven primarily by segment profit growth. A bridge for adjusted EPS from 2Q '23 to 2Q '24 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Orders grew 4% year-over-year with a book-to-bill of 1, led by growth in BA, ESS and IA, including pockets of short-cycle strength with advanced materials and building products growing both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Orders growth supported a 5% year-over-year increase in backlog to maintain our record level of $32 billion. Free cash flow was approximately $1.1 billion, roughly flat year-over-year versus the second quarter of '23 as higher net income and improved working capital from reduced inventory levels were offset by the timing of higher cash taxes. We continue to expect working capital becoming a more meaningful tailwind in the coming quarters as we unwind the multiyear buildup of inventory. This quarter, we were able to effectively reduce our days of supply each month in all our businesses by utilizing our accelerator digitalization capabilities, improving demand planning and optimizing production materials management, which gives me confidence that we are starting to systematically bend the curve. As Vimal discussed earlier, we made significant progress on our capital deployment strategy this quarter, allocating $6.4 billion to M&A, dividends, share repurchases and capital expenditures, including closing our $5 billion acquisition of Access Solutions. When combined with the anticipated closing of CAES and Air Products LNG businesses later this year, we are on track to deploy a record $14 billion of capital in 2024. Now let's spend a few minutes on the second quarter performance by business. In Aerospace Technologies, sales for the second quarter were up 16% organically, with double-digit growth in both defense and space and commercial aerospace. This marks the 13th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in commercial aviation enabled by sustained growth in global flight activity and increased shipset deliveries. Defense and space growth accelerated in the second quarter as we continue to see robust global demand coupled with supply chain improvements, enabling an incremental volume unlock. Aerospace supply chain improvements remain on track as output increased by 14% in the second quarter, the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit output growth. Segment margin in Aerospace Technologies contracted 60 basis points year-over-year to 27.2%, driven by expected mix pressure within our original equipment business, partially offset by commercial excellence net of inflation. For Industrial Automation, sales fell 8% organically in the quarter, primarily due to lower volumes and warehouse and workflow solutions, but overall sales improved 1% sequentially. Process Solutions revenue grew 1% in the quarter as another quarter of double-digit growth in our aftermarket services business was partially offset by headwinds in Thermal Solutions and Smart Energy. Our Sensing and Safety Technologies business declined modestly year-over-year, but saw sequential growth in both orders and sales, a positive indicator going forward. In Productivity Solutions and Services, sales improved year-over-year when excluding the impact of the $45 million quarterly license and settlement payments that ended in the first quarter. Orders in PSS grew double digits for the third consecutive quarter, and overall IA orders grew high single digits, led by growth of over 20% in Warehouse and Workflow solutions, driving an overall book-to-bill of 1.1. Industrial Automation segment margin contracted 90 basis points to 19% due to lower volume leverage and the end of payments under the license and settlement agreement in Productivity Solutions and Services. Excluding the impact of that agreement, margins expanded in the second quarter. Moving to Building Automation. Sales were up 1% organically as another quarter of excellent performance in our long-cycle Building Solutions business led the way, while we continue to work through lower volumes in our Building Products portfolio. Solutions grew 14% in the quarter with 20% growth in projects as a result of strength in data centers, health care and energy. Sales grew double digits sequentially, including one month of benefit from the acquisition of our Access Solutions business, highlighted by strong execution and solutions and further progress in fire and building management systems within building products. Double-digit orders growth was a highlight for building automation in the quarter, growing both sequentially and year-over-year in both solutions and products, resulting in an overall book-to-bill ratio of 1.1. Segment margin contracted 60 basis points to 25.3% due to mix headwinds and cost inflation, partially offset by productivity actions and commercial excellence. In Energy & Sustainability Solutions, sales grew 3% organically in the second quarter. Advanced Materials increased 8% year-over-year due to continued strength in fluorine products. UOP sales declined 4% as previously noted, difficult year-over-year comps in gas processing equipment projects more than offset solid growth in refining catalysts and aftermarket services. Orders were a highlight in ESS as book-to-bill was 1.2 in the second quarter, the third consecutive quarter of a book-to-bill above 1.0 primarily on greater than 20% growth in advanced materials and more than 60% growth in sustainable technology solutions. Segment margins expanded 200 basis points on a year-over-year basis to 25.2%, primarily driven by productivity actions. We continue to execute on our proven value creation framework underpinned by our Accelerator Operating System. This, combined with ongoing benefits from our long cycle end markets and the strength of our backlog give us confidence in our ability to navigate the current environment. Now let's turn to Slide 6 and talk about our third quarter and full year outlook. Our commercial and operational discipline have enabled us to deliver on our organic growth commitments, with continued long-cycle strength and modest sequential growth within certain of our short-cycle businesses, particularly in advanced materials, building products and sensing and safety technologies. While we are encouraged by our performance year-to-date and our robust backlog, the back half will remain influenced by the dynamic macroeconomic backdrop and varying levels of channel improvement across our portfolio. Given these dynamics and our recent acquisition announcements, we are increasing our 2024 top line expectations. We forecast sales to be in the range of $39.1 billion to $39.7 billion, which includes overall organic sales growth of 5% to 6% for the year, up from 4% to 6% previously, increasing the midpoint from our prior guidance. The sales forecast also includes the acquisition of CAES and Air Products LNG businesses, which we expect to close in the third quarter. Collectively, acquisitions are expected to add approximately $800 million to Honeywell sales in 2024. Sequential growth in the third and fourth quarters across most of the portfolio will be driven by continued progress in the aerospace supply chain, seasonal uplift from UOP in addition to other long-cycle businesses and areas of modest short-cycle improvement, which will vary depending on the end market exposures. For the third quarter, we anticipate sales in the range of $9.8 billion to $10 billion, up 4% to 6% organically with the benefit of roughly $300 million in acquisition-related revenue. Moving to segment margin as growth in our long-cycle businesses outpaces the short-cycle recovery, supporting the raise to our top line range, we expect to see a bit less favorable mix within some of our SPGs in the short term. However, from a long-term perspective, executing on robust demand for projects and original equipment sets our business up for a long tail of high-margin aftermarket revenue streams by expanding our vast installed base. When incorporating the impact of recently announced acquisitions, we now anticipate our overall segment margin to be in the range of 23.3% to 23.5%, flat to down 20 basis points year-over-year. Overall segment profit dollars will still grow significantly in 2024, between 6% and 9% as margins will continue to be supported by price cost discipline and productivity actions, including our focus on reducing raw material costs. From a segment perspective, Energy and Sustainability solutions and Building Automation will lead the group and margin expansion, followed by modest contraction for industrial automation as well as aerospace as a result of the CAES acquisition. For the third quarter, we anticipate overall segment margin in the range of 23.0% to 23.3% and down 30 to 60 basis points year-over-year and in line with the first two quarters of this year due to quarterly variability in aero mix, the anticipated close of CAES and normal seasonality within energy and sustainability solutions. Now let's spend a few minutes on our outlook by business. Looking ahead for Aerospace Technologies, we expect momentum from the first half to carry over into the second half as robust orders and increases in factory output will support growth. In commercial original equipment, we anticipate the second quarter to be our low point of the year for growth and some related supply chain challenges abate. We see strong sequential and year-over-year growth through the third and fourth quarters, particularly in air transport as build rate strength drives volume progression. In commercial aftermarket, we anticipate continued sales momentum, though growth rates will come down slightly in the back half as comps get more difficult. For defense and space, the global geopolitical backdrop, coupled with our robust order book and increased investments in our supply chain will provide support for sequential growth in the third and fourth quarters. As a result of these dynamics in a strong first half, we now forecast defense and space growth to be double digits for the year. We still expect Aerospace to lead Honeywell in 2024 with organic sales growth in the low double-digit range. For segment margin, the dynamics remain comparable to 2022 and 2023 as higher sales from lower margin products are partially offset by volume leverage. However, we now expect 2024 aero margins to decline modestly year-over-year due to the impact of the CAES acquisition. We anticipate the third quarter will be the low point in the year, reflecting the closing of CAES and less favorable quarterly mix. Industrial Automation, we're benefiting from solid orders momentum in most of our long-cycle businesses, while our short-cycle businesses are showing varying signs of sequential progress. In the third quarter, we expect modest sequential improvement in IA and a return to year-over-year growth in the back half. Second half sales growth will be led by Process Solutions, which will see further strength in our aftermarket services businesses and improvement in the Smart Energy and Thermal Solutions businesses that weighed on first half results. In Productivity Solutions and Services, sales will grow sequentially from here. Orders have grown double digits for three straight quarters in PSS, giving us confidence in our outlook for the second half and into 2025. Sensing and safety technologies will improve sequentially as we benefit from the fading effects of distributor destocking. Warehouse and workflow solutions will grow sequentially as we move through the trough in warehouse automation spending and should end the year around $1 billion in sales. As a result of these dynamics, we expect flattish organic sales growth in 2024. Margins will expand in the second half as we implement productivity actions and benefit from volume leverage through long-cycle seasonality and further short-cycle progress. Moving on to Building Automation. In the third quarter, we expect Building Solutions to outpace Building Product sales. In products, we anticipate sales to improve modestly sequentially in the third and the fourth quarters, supported by 2Q's favorable order trends. However, the magnitude remains dependent on the ongoing normalization of channel inventories. In Solutions, both projects and services orders grew over 20% in the second quarter, providing support for additional revenue growth in the back half and into 2025. Projects has been a standout, and we forecast double-digit growth for the year. As a reminder, the Access Solutions acquisition has now been incorporated into our guidance within Building Products. For the year, we continue to expect organic sales growth of low single digits. For segment margin, while we still anticipate expansion year-over-year, incremental shift in mix toward higher sales in our Building Solutions business will slow the pace of that expansion near term. Finally, in Energy and Sustainability Solutions, encouraging fundamentals in our end markets will drive a favorable growth outlook in the third quarter and the full year. In the third quarter, we expect sales to be roughly flat year-over-year and down slightly sequentially with typical seasonality in fluorine products as we exit the summer months, offsetting improvement in Electronic Materials and UOP. Notably, the second quarter marks the last of significant year-over-year unfavorable comps from large gas processing equipment projects in UOP. For the full year, sustained strength in catalysts in conjunction with an incremental back half recovery in electronic materials will support growth for ESS. Our confidence in our sustainable Technology Solutions business remains unchanged as a strong demand profile will drive robust growth for the year. Additionally, we expect the closing of our acquisition of Air Products LNG business to take place in the third quarter and have included this impact in our guidance. For the year, our organic growth outlook for ESS is low single digits. Margins should improve half over half, particularly in the fourth quarter as a result of typical catalyst reload seasonality, leading to full year margin expansion for ESS. Moving on to other key guidance metrics. Pension income will remain roughly flat to 2023 at approximately $550 million. As a result of the acquisitions and corresponding increase in interest expense, we now anticipate net below-the-line impact to be between negative $700 million and negative $800 million for the full year and between negative $185 million and negative $235 million in the third quarter. This guidance includes repositioning spend between $150 million and $225 million for the full year and between $30 million and $70 million in the third quarter as we invest further in high-return projects to support future growth and productivity. Adjusted effective tax rate will be around 21% for both the full year and the third quarter. We anticipate average share count to be approximately 655 million shares for both the full year and the third quarter as we have already achieved more than 1% share count reduction for the year, but we maintain balance sheet flexibility to deploy additional capital to achieve the highest shareholder returns. As a result of these inputs, we now anticipate full year adjusted earnings per share to be between $10.05 and $10.25, up 6% to 8% year-over-year. We expect third quarter earnings per share between $2.45 and $2.55 up 3% to 7% year-over-year. We expect free cash flow to benefit from progress on the multiyear unwind of working capital as we continue to extract more value from our digitization efforts through Accelerator. In addition, we'll continue to fund high CapEx projects, high-return CapEx projects focused on creating uniquely innovative, differentiated technologies. As a result, our free cash flow expectations are now in the $5.5 billion to $5.9 billion range, up 4% to 11%, excluding the impact of prior year settlements and commensurate with the revision to net income growth. So in summary, we delivered a strong first half of the year and anticipate continued top line acceleration in the second half as we benefit from strength in our long-cycle businesses. Our rigorous operating principles will enable us to execute through short-term mix pressure, and we remain confident in our long-term algorithm with a strong second half 2024 exit rate on revenue intact, giving us nice momentum into 2025. So with that, let me turn it back to Vimal on Slide 7.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Greg. Before we end the call, let's take a moment to focus on the progress Honeywell has demonstrated on our long-term growth algorithm. While we significantly transformed the company over the past 10 years, we are not close to finish. We remain committed to delivering long-term organic growth in 4% to 7% range, coupled with a gross margin above 40%, segment margin profit above 25%, free cash flow margins in mid-teens plus and adjusted EPS growth of 8% to 12%. M&A deals like the three we highlighted today also play a key factor enabling us to achieve 1% to 2% EPS accretion, a key factor that will allow us to generate double-digit adjusted EPS growth on a through-cycle basis. I remain excited about the opportunity to lead Honeywell to the next phase of our transformation, executing on my key priorities of accelerating organic growth, optimizing our portfolio and evolving our Accelerator Operating System. We'll continue to update you as these efforts to drive improvement in our financial performance. And now let's turn to Slide 8 for the closing thoughts before we move into Q&A. In the first half of the year, we made material progress towards our capital deployment goals, closing the Access Solution deals and announcing three additional deals, Civitanavi, CAES and Air Products LNG business. This brings us to $10 billion in M&A since the beginning of the last year as we work towards achieving my key priorities of optimizing the portfolio. We will continue to effectively manage through the dynamic economic and geopolitical backdrop while delivering on our long-term financial framework. We executed well in the second quarter, meeting or exceeding all guidance metrics and our portfolio set up for top line growth acceleration in the second half as we benefit from easy comp, strong orders growth in the second quarter and strength in our long-cycle businesses. We are confident in our ability to weather near-term challenges and meet our financial targets. With that, Sean, let's take questions.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Vimal. Vimal and Greg are now available to answer your questions. We ask that you please be mindful of others in the queue by only asking one question and one related follow-up. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Tusa with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Stephen Tusa:
Hi, good morning.
Vimal Kapur:
Hey, Steve. Good morning.
Stephen Tusa:
Can you guys just help us parse out the moving parts here? I mean, the below-the-line costs are higher, obviously, on interest, quantinuum costs are higher and you raised organic, but you're also including the revenue from acquisitions and then you're, I think, cutting core profit. So I just really want to get down to like what the size of the segment core profit reduction is, if any? And then just help us with the acquisitions and how much they're influencing the segment profit numbers?
Greg Lewis:
Sure. Sure. Thanks, Steve. So I think you've got thematics quite right there. Essentially, when you think about it, first of all, when we opened the year, we always said the first half was going to tell us a lot about how the full year was coming, particularly as it relates to short cycle. And now here we are through six months. And what we're seeing is the organic growth in its totality is still in the range of our guidance and actually doing quite well, which is why we took up the bottom. But it's a -- it's more heavily towards short cycle -- or sorry, towards long cycle than short. So there's good news in there, which is things like Building Solutions, our PaaS [ph] projects business and HPS and others are accelerating. But some of the short cycles are not accelerating as much as we had hoped. So that's really just changing the margin mix, particularly in IA and BA and I would say it's probably like two thirds, one third in terms of the -- if you think about our guidance at the midpoint, I think we're coming down by about $0.15 and probably about two thirds, one third the organic core business versus the acquisitions because as you rightly noted, we've added in the next set of acquisitions. But along with that, we're going to spend $4 billion in the back half of the year. And of course, that's going to cost us about 5% roundabout. So that's really the thematic changes that we're making here overall. But the encouraging thing is the back half exit rate is still very strong. So we're -- we feel really good about the back half in its totality at this point and it's going to be a really compelling exit rate. And again, layering on $2 billion of acquired revenue into next year, about 500 basis points of revenue. So I think very much on strategy and from kind of where Vimal is trying to take us at this point.
Stephen Tusa:
Sorry, what's the profit contribution from these acquisitions that are now in the numbers relative to what you guys had thought in early June? And what is the cut to the core segment profit ex quantinium, you know, dollar wise...
Greg Lewis:
Steve, it's about two thirds, one third. The $0.15 reduction at the midpoint is about two thirds relative to the core business, and it's about one third relative to our M&A net of interest.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. Okay. got it. Okay. Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Yeah.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe just wanted to follow up on a couple of points there. So the segment profit dollar guide has come down, I think, about $100 million to $150 million. So I just wanted to check, Greg, what you're saying is, and that's a full year number, I think. You're saying that around two thirds of that is core dilution just from more long cycle mix versus short cycle? And then a third of it is just the newer acquisitions closing in Q3. Those are sort of negative EBITDA [ph] if you like. I just wanted to check that. And then when we're looking at...
Greg Lewis:
What I'm saying, Julian, is that at the EPS line, it's about a $0.15 reduction at the midpoint, and about two thirds of that is for the core business and about one third of that is due to the M&A, which is inclusive of the interest cost of actually making those acquisitions.
Vimal Kapur:
Julian, the point I will add there is the margin changes, not that something has gone shift in the businesses. It's the mix within the businesses, which is causing this margin changes. Like in case of aerospace, we continue to have OE versus aftermarket, market mix, in case of building automation, more solution, less products, similar dynamics in case of industrial automation. So I want to make it clear that underlying businesses remain strong. We are seeing margin expansion. We are seeing productivity. Our fixed cost remains very attractive. So it's mixed within the businesses. We are getting more longer-term long-cycle businesses, which in a way also solidifies our second half outlook. We are not factoring a significant uptake in the short cycle. We are factoring some but to which we have visibility. But majority of our outlook for second half is built upon long cycle businesses, continued growth in aerospace, sequentially quarter on quarter ramp up of UOP in the second of the year, specifically catalyst businesses, strong backlog and other solution businesses. So then all that comes together, it just makes the margin mix to what we have guided it to.
Julian Mitchell:
I see. Yes, I think a lot of the question just because it looks like the absolute sort of segment profit dollar guide is lower, not just sort of the margin mix...
Vimal Kapur:
That's right because of the dynamics of longer cycle businesses growing way greater than shorter cycle, it -- the margin mix is unfavorable. But if you roll it up to 2025 that factor should play off because this is not an underlying business margin issue. That's the point I'm highlighting. It's not that we are dropping margins somewhere, we're having price cost issue, we are not getting productivity. Our fixed cost has gone up. None of that is true. We are, in fact, getting excellent productivity and margin expansion. It's purely driven by mix within the businesses.
Julian Mitchell:
That's helpful. And do...
Greg Lewis:
Just keep in mind, short -- in most cases, our short cycle margins, think about them as being 30 points higher than our long-cycle project solution-oriented margin. So that's really what you're seeing. Revenue in its totality organically, roughly the same, but carrying a lower margin rate along with it.
Julian Mitchell:
That's very helpful. And on your point on the M&A, the fourth quarter, I think you're assuming sequentially, revenues are up maybe 9%. That's a lot more than normal, but you've got the deals coming in Q3. So just wondered sort of how much of those new deals add to that fourth quarter revenue if you have that to hand?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I mean you should think that we're expecting closure of those deals in the third quarter, but likely to be mid- to late part of the third quarter. So there is some level of that step up. Remember, we always have a big step up in aero in Q4, and we expect that to also be true. We also have a lot of visibility into the ESS rev streams in Q4 as well. So catalyst reloads and so forth. So it is on the higher side of the revenue step-up for sure. But we feel good we've interrogated that quite deeply, and we feel good about the credibility around that outlook. Now the other thing I would just mention is, keep in mind, if you just take a step back for a minute on the M&A side. In the early days of these acquisitions, that's -- there's going to be some meaningful integration costs on the front end. But again, beyond 2024, these deals are nicely accretive as we get through that integration cost period. So again, good -- I think it's a very nice adder to the portfolio. And if you think about the work that was trying to do on improving the quality of the portfolio, this is all good news for '25 and beyond.
Sean Meakim:
And then Julian, this is Sean. Just one to put a button on your question around the incremental revenue in '24. On June 3rd, we announced the closing of the Access Solutions business. We also increased our guidance by $400 million for the year. Now this new guidance reflects another $400 million of related M&A revenue in '24. So full year '24, about $800 million, of which we had a month of Access Solutions in the month of June in the second quarter. Such would give you enough to kind of walk through the quarterly through the balance of the year. And then we talked about a run rate of close to $2 billion collectively going into '25. As Greg said, he's going to be -- each of these deals are coming in at accretive growth rates to the respective businesses as well as Honeywell overall.
Julian Mitchell:
Very helpful. Thank you.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Julian.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Nigel Coe:
Good morning. I hate to be a bore, but I do want to come back to this guidance revision math. My understanding was that the LNG acquisition was actually margin accretive, but I think maybe 30%, 40%. So on that $400 million [ph] of incremental M&A revenue, it feels like you've got over $100 million of segment income coming through here. So it feels like the core guide is getting cut by maybe $200 million or so. Is that correct? And how do we think about that? Is that solely within the IA and BA segments? And is it all margin? Just want to clarify that.
Greg Lewis:
Sure. So most of the cut is in IA, BA [ph] for sure. That is where the short-cycle, long-cycle mix changes is most pronounced for sure. And yes, we're getting incremental segment profit on these new acquisitions. As I mentioned, there's going to be some integration costs on them early on and then net of the interest cost that we're going to bear. That's where we talk about, I don't know, $0.04 to $0.05 roughly of degradation in the EPS guide associated with that.
Nigel Coe:
But the repo costs are coming down, Greg, by about $50 million. So are you talking about integration costs over and above repo? I mean -- and can you just help us out how much segment...
Greg Lewis:
Yeah. Integration costs get incurred inside of segment profit unless there's a repositioning project associated, but there are...
Nigel Coe:
Okay...
Greg Lewis:
There are ongoing integration costs that go into the segment profit of the business that we're acquiring into that SPG.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. My last question, Greg, is what is the impact on segment income from the new acquisitions in the back half of the year?
Greg Lewis:
I don't think we're giving you a precise answer on that. There's a range around inside of what I was sharing. So I'm not going to give you like a point in precise number.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, no problem. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Davis:
Hey, good morning Vimal, Greg and Sean.
Greg Lewis:
Hi, Scott.
Scott Davis:
I'm looking at these book-to-bills on Slide 11. I don't think we -- we don't have a lot of history with you guys talking about book-to-bill. But they look pretty encouraging. I just wanted to get kind of your view on historically, they've been relatively volatile. Are they something that we can kind of take to the bank, if you will, that this does indicate a pretty sharp acceleration in the back half?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes, Scott, actually, one of the highlights for this earnings story is our orders performance in second quarter. Our orders grew double digit in Building Automation, high single in Industrial Automation and double-digit in Energy & Sustainability solution. So that has put our backlog now to $32 billion, up 5%. And that's really what is now flowing into our revenue of second half with a strong book-to-bill, which we did in second quarter. By the way, the forecast we have for the orders for the second half is also very strong. So essentially, we have pivoted towards our guide toward long cycle on the strength of the backlog and the forecast we are getting on the long-cycle businesses because it gives us more assurance and more visibility, and that's why we called out book-to-bill, which is nearly one. And we feel that this is standing on a very strong footing at this point of time.
Scott Davis:
Okay. And Vimal, could you walk around the world a little bit for us? I mean have you seen any meaningful changes in the key regions, notably China?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. No, I would say -- I will call out the two biggest regions for us, China and Middle East. I would say China, Honeywell continues to do well, thanks to aero and energy businesses we have here. We scored high single in last year. We are trending towards similar rates this year. Short cycle businesses are challenged there, too, like the economic cycle of China, as we all read. Middle East remains a counterpoint for us. It is growing very strongly, specifically Saudi Arabia, also UAE, we see a strong momentum. And in a way, we are counting on that reversion in the times ahead to the slowdown of China progressively every passing year. Europe, actually, we are seeing a recovery. We have seen good revenue progression for Honeywell in first half of the year. So probably bottom is behind us, and that's how we are looking at times ahead for Europe for us. So that's kind of for some high-level comments on geography.
Scott Davis:
Okay. Very helpful. Thank you. Good luck.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning.
Vimal Kapur:
Morning.
Greg Lewis:
Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on aerospace. And as I said, maybe it's too long term. But just sort of thinking about the mix for aero into the second half, which I believe you've sort of highlighted as a drag. Vimal, are you guys changing your approach to monetizing programs in aero that are sunsetting because my understanding is that they have been sort of a steady source of upside over the past couple of years. Are you -- as you sort of become the Chairman, are you changing approach to how to think about your portfolio there?
Vimal Kapur:
I mean I would say we absolutely are looking to make aero more of a longer cycle growth sector for Honeywell. Aero has always faced cycle, up cycle, down cycle, and we are really positioning it to grow high single for until next 5 to 7 years. And there's an organic growth work which is happening around it through new products. But equally importantly, the acquisitions which we made of Civitanavi and CAES e, both are targeted to defense segment. And defense segment, we are bullish on the growth occurring in defense. Our backlogs are growing very nicely there. So we're really pivoting towards higher growth segments within aerospace to maintain our growth rates there in the times ahead. And I remain very both bullish and optimistic on how aero business is going to perform in the next several years ahead.
Andrew Obin:
And I guess I'm going to go back to the question that everybody else asked. As we go through sort of the list of the performance of businesses this quarter, right, I mean, it was very few exceptions. It seems that short-cycle businesses have actually done as well as you were expecting. So another way of asking the question, now that you're a Chairman, are you just taking a more conservative approach to sort of how to think about the framework going forward given the level of macro uncertainty out there?
Vimal Kapur:
I mean I think the macros are reality, Andrew, at the end of the day, that's something which I don't control. So long-cycle businesses are performing well because the segments we serve are attractive, energy transition, aerospace, and that's certainly helping us. I think short cycle businesses are reverting back. I'm not suggesting that they are contracting, but the reversion is more at the lower end of our initial estimate at start of the year versus at the mid or upper end of it. That's only subtle [ph] difference. And the swing between the mix of short and long is the difference in the margin because we are raising the low end of our guide of revenue, which shows our confidence in the overall business, organic growth, because my comment right from the day I started is organic growth is my highest priority and we are delivering on that. Our guide is 5 to 6. My goal will be, of course, to deliver on the upper end of it. And I would argue in the very first year of my inception in the job, that's not a bad outcome and we'll strive for that subsequent year. I don't leave any impression that short cycle is less important, long cycle is more important. I think it's just a derivative of how markets are performing and how we are performing in the markets at this point of time.
Andrew Obin:
Thanks so much.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray:
I was hoping to get some commentary if you're seeing any of the election worries delaying customer decisions, and it's not really related, but any impact from the CrowdStrike fiasco early in the week, anything ripple through your businesses?
Vimal Kapur:
I mean, being nothing on the CrowdStrike, no impact on Honeywell. We are not a user of that software. We obviously pay a lot of attention to our cybersecurity strategy and remain very vigilant on that. So I'm never going to claim victory on that front. We need to stay vigilant. I think, on elections, look, I mean, we always will prepare for both the scenarios. That's not new for a company like Honeywell. But this year, elections are more than a US factor spinning around rest of the world. And clearly that is certainly been a factor on how economies are shaping up. That's my view. I think there was a lot of stories around, half the world is going through elections, but that's not playing out because the results are out and I think the biggest one in US, we are anxiously waiting on how the results will play out in a couple of months down the line. But we are prepared in either scenario. This is something we do for a living and we anticipate each outcome and how will it impact us?
Deane Dray:
That's great to hear. And just a second question. I know we're still early in the deal integration, but where would you highlight some of the revenue synergy opportunities? What would be the biggest and potential timing?
Vimal Kapur:
Look, I would like to highlight that all the deals we have announced, none of our deal ROIs are based on sales energy. We don't count it. Having said that, each of the 4 Ds [ph] we have done, they are highly synergetic to Honeywell and that has been our theme. I'm equally -- I'm bullish on all the four deals and synergies it brings. Aero has substantial synergies on both CAES acquisition and in Civitanavi acquisition. Same is true for both UOP and HPS and LNG because we were always present in LNG segment. This was not a new arrival for us. But with the deep technology expertise, this new Air Products business brings, it's just going to further enhance our LNG penetration and growth rate in that segment. And Carrier acquisition, we have talked in some of the earlier calls, it's all about taking that business truly global because the business is very concentrated in North America, and that's going to provide us sales synergies. So there are two factors in these acquisition I'll call out. The first is all the acquisitions we have made, they are accretive to the baseline growth rate of Honeywell, all of them. Second, the sales synergies are icing on the cake on top of it, and we will deliver on that as we integrate them in 2025 and more, and that's going to be a strong part of our earnings story in the times ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning, Vimal, Greg, Sean, thank you.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning. Maybe just to start on the top line with aerospace. Can you talk about commercial OE, how you're thinking about where your MAX and 787 rates are today and how they progress through the year? Is Boeing signaling any sort of change to your output as we think about the rest of the year and into '25?
Vimal Kapur:
Sheila, we are constantly calibrating our output with all the key OEMs on a 12 months earning frequency. That has been a process for a while now. I would say that based on the recent adjustment path, both Airbus and Boeing, we have calibrated our volumes aligned with them. It's not a major change. But there's some small change, specifically on the electronics side, where we don't have much past dues. But the change is not material to aerospace and not material to Honeywell. But our guide does factor changes, which have been signaled by both Airbus and Boeing recently.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
So how do we think about the OE growth? Is it up 20%, I think?
Vimal Kapur:
This year, it's going to be up strong double digits...
Greg Lewis:
So you're in the right neighbourhood, yes. The way to think about aerospace by end market would be something approaching 20% for OE is reasonable, something like mid-teens for aftermarket and then double digits for defense and space.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Okay. And then just on the profitability, you have about 100 bps of contraction, I think, in the second half despite more typical selection credit dynamics. So how do we think about profitability in the second half and how that Cobham acquisition changes that?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So as we talked about the mix inside of our deliveries has caused us quarter-to-quarter volatility, I'll call it, for lack of a better word. And the third quarter is likely going to be the lowest margin rate of the year for us, and we expect that will then recover back in fourth quarter. And that's based on, again, what we can see in terms of what's in the backlog, the margin on those products, et cetera. And we talked about the fact that aero on an organic basis, it was going to be roughly flat in margins this year and then layering on the CAES acquisition that will have a negative impact on that baseline and then we'll bring it back up from there. So as you start seeing the third and the fourth quarter prints, that's what you should expect to see inside the aero margin rate, but it's not a change in our overall outlook, definitely amplitude from quarter to quarter to quarter as we've been discussing, given the mix of the products we're delivering even inside the OE itself, but no real change in our outlook on how that is performing.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Good morning, everyone.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Vimal or Greg, just maybe double-clicking on the short cycle businesses that are resulting in the lower expected organic margin in the second half. I think you said building products orders have been improving. Are they just improving more slower than you thought and you saw weaker-than-expected June? Is that one of the issues? And then maybe the same question on productivity solutions are sensing. What are you assuming for these businesses in terms of rate of recovery now?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. Thanks, Andy. So a couple of things to keep in mind. Just to remind, when we gave our guidance on June 3rd, it's obviously before the third month of the quarter and remember, half of our results happen in the third month of any given quarter. So that just speaks to like what we were able to see at that moment in time versus what we can see today. But your supposition is exactly right. There are certain parts of the short-cycle businesses inside of building products and inside of IA short cycle that are slower than we had hoped. And so that's really what's driving the margin mix. It's getting offset, as we mentioned, by the Building Solutions sales, the HPS project sales, et cetera. But they're still improving sequentially. So that's not -- that is also still true. They're improving sequentially, but not as robustly as we would have liked.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Helpful, Greg. And then obviously, you stepped up M&A activity considerably. Do you see the recent rate of M&A continuing? Is the M&A market conducive to that? And then you've talked about divestitures or ramping that up. Can you offset dilution that you might eventually get from divestitures to still grow that 10% in terms of -- in line with your longer-term algorithm?
Vimal Kapur:
That will only play out. I mean I can only on divestiture, I would say we are working on it, and I would be disappointed if we do not show any progress during 2024. And as those things play out, we'll update you on its implication on our earnings guide, if any, we have to take any cost actions, but that's work in progress. And you can expect to hear more from us as the year progresses. On M&A front, our pipeline is still active. We are obviously conscious of the fact we have done 4 Ds [ph] we have to integrate them. We don't want to take that lightly. But it doesn't mean that we are walking away from the market, and we're actually sourcing what's available out there.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Appreciate it, guys.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Ritchie:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Hey, Joe.
Vimal Kapur:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
And so thanks for all the color. So just maybe just focused on BA and IA for a second and the margins that are expected for the year there. How has those expectations just change for those two particular segments for the year?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. They're coming down versus what we had anticipated and again, mainly because of the back half margin performance expectations. But we still expect that on an overall basis, we will make progress in BA in particular. We ought to see a little bit of improvement. It's just not going to be as robust as we had thought in the beginning of the year. So think about that in 10s of basis points as opposed to 100 basis points. And on the IA side, similarly, we expect to make some progress in the year, but it's probably going to be in the 10s of basis points over all for the full year as opposed to 100 basis points type of range.
Greg Lewis:
But progress nonetheless...
Vimal Kapur:
Keep in mind, inside of IA, we are overcoming the very accretive license payments relative to the PSS business that were a nice lift for us, and now we're going to experience three quarters of that loss this year and one quarter of it next year.
Joe Ritchie:
Yes. Okay. Okay. Great. And then I guess just -- I know a lot of the comments on the - the change in margins has been driven by the mix commentary, and we've highlighted that already. I'm just curious, has anything changed from a pricing standpoint or like raw material inputs or inflation? Just any comments around that would be helpful.
Vimal Kapur:
The pricing Joe is trending in the direction we have signaled. We are at a rate of about 3%, and we expect second half to be a little slightly stronger. The punchline is our price cost is just about neutral, and our productivity is very strong, which is giving us the margin expansion across our businesses. And what -- as I explained before, the margin rates at EPS level is just mix within the businesses itself. But pricing remains at the right level. And we do expect this 3% - I've spoken before that the era 1% price is over, so we always should expect something greater than that, and we are demonstrating that in 2023.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. And again, on the inflation side, no big changes. There's always something that comes along...
Vimal Kapur:
Electronics, I would say, remains hot. That's where we continue to see elevated level of pricing, but others are I would say - and labor. Labor is and will remain a high elevated inflation category for us.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, thank you.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our time allowed for questions. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Kapur for any final comments.
Vimal Kapur:
I want to express my appreciation to our shareholders for your ongoing support and again to our Honeywell future shapers, who are driving differentiated performance for our customers. Our future is bright, and we look forward to sharing our progress with you as we continue executing on our commitment. Thank you for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.+
Operator:
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapur; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. .
This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website. From time to time, we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website. Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our business as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the first quarter, share our guidance for the second quarter and provide an update on full year 2024. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to CEO, Vimal Kapur.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. We delivered a very strong first quarter, exceeding the high end of our first quarter adjusted earnings per share guidance and meeting the high end of our organic sales and segment margin guidance ranges.
The disciplined execution of our world-class Accelerator operating system and differentiated portfolio of technologies enabled this strong performance amidst a dynamic macroeconomic backdrop. As expected, our long-cycle Aerospace and energy-oriented businesses led the way with healthy organic volume growth. We are starting to see recovery in some areas of our short-cycle portfolio, including consecutive quarters of order growth in productivity solutions and services, while the other short-cycle businesses continue to normalize as the effects of destocking fade consistent with our second half acceleration framework. Before we get into a more detailed discussion on the first quarter 2024 results and updates to our full year 2024 expectation, let me take a minute to revisit my priorities for Honeywell. First, we are keenly focused on accelerating organic sales growth towards the upper end of our long-term target range of 4% to 7%. We are doing this by enhancing our innovation playbook, accelerating sustainability and software offerings, increasing penetration of our installed base and leveraging our leadership position in high-growth regions. Second, we are evolving Honeywell Accelerator to drive incremental value through deploying global design model across the portfolio to enhance our growth capabilities. Following the great integration inside of Honeywell over the past several years, we are now an integrated operating company that deploys world-class digital supply chain and technology development capabilities at scale, along with multiple growth drivers that benefit the entire enterprise. This includes leveraging generative AI to maximize the potential benefit of our operating system, both for our customers and internally. Of the strong digitally enabled foundation, Accelerator is providing to be a powerful source of profitable growth across all of our businesses and potential addition to our portfolio. Third, we are executing on our portfolio, optimizing goals, upgrading the quality of our business and financial profile by executing on strategic bolt-on acquisitions while divesting noncore lines of business to accelerate value creation. We expect to deliver profitable growth and strong cash generation as we demonstrate progress against these priorities, creating a compelling long-term value proposition for our share owners. In the spirit of that progress, let's turn to Slide 3 to discuss the latest action in our portfolio-shaping goals. Our M&A playbook is yielding positive results. Over the last few years, we have accumulated several quality bolt-ons and tuck-in assets that strategically add to our technological capabilities, enhancing our alignment to compelling megatrends and provide accretive growth that supports Honeywell's overall long-term financial framework. We remain focused on creating a flywheel of bolt-on M&A transaction roughly in the $1 billion to $7 billion purchase price range. We have successfully executed on meaningful deals that add technological adjacencies to our portfolio and are accretive to our growth and margin rate profile with attractive business mix characteristics. The most recent example of this came in the fourth quarter when we announced our intention to acquire Carrier's Global Access Solutions business for nearly $5 billion, enabling Honeywell to become a leader in security solution for the digital age. The transaction further enhances our equipment-agnostic, high-margin product business mix within Building Automation. Last year's acquisition of Compressor Controls Corporation, or CCC, a leading provider of turbomachinery control and optimization solutions that will play a critical role in early transition, aligns with this playbook as well. CCC technologies, including controlled hardware, software and services bolster Honeywell's high-growth sustainability and digitalization portfolio with new carbon capture control solution. CCC has seamlessly integrated into our Process Solutions business, and we are already seeing meaningful revenue synergies benefit with Honeywell Forge. Second, acquisition is also an important growth lever for us as we continuously evaluate a build, buy or partner approach to add strategically important offering that solve our customers' toughest challenges. Last month, Honeywell announced our intention to acquire Civitanavi Systems for approximately EUR 200 million. Civitanavi's technology will reinforce our leading navigation solutions across aerospace, defense and industrial platform. This acquisition, which is [ direct concert ] with Honeywell's alignment to the megatrend of automation and future of aviation, furthers our ability to create value for our customers from nose to tail, whether they are traditional operators seeking to increase the autonomous capability of their existing fleets or new entries in the advanced air mobility space. Last year, we acquired SCADAfence, a business that delivers Internet of Things and operational technology cybersecurity solution for monitoring large-scale network. SCADAfence brought proven technologies in asset recovery, threat detection and security governance into our [ SC ] portfolio, all key components for critical infrastructure and industrial cybersecurity. The acquisition has bolstered our strategic foundation in an attractive market for us to continue to build on both organically and inorganically. With the recent portfolio announcement, including Carrier's Global Access Solutions business and Civitanavi, we are on track to accelerate capital deployment in 2024 and exceed our commitment to deploy at least $25 billion of capital in 2023 through 2025. Our robust balance sheet capacity enable us to allocate capital to opportunistic share repurchases, high-return growth CapEx and accretive M&A. As the deal environment remains relatively favorable in 2024, we will build on our already strong pipeline of high-value M&A opportunities, supporting the execution of our portfolio-shaping strategy.
Before I hand it over to Greg, let's turn to Slide 4 to review some of our exciting recent wins. Let me take this opportunity to highlight our recent commercial wins and strategic actions we are taking that demonstrate innovation across our portfolio and support alignment of 3 compelling megatrends:
automation, future of aviation and energy transition, all underpinned by robust digitalization capability and solutions.
In the automation space, Honeywell was chosen to provide automation, cybersecurity and safety solution to a multibillion-dollar plant expansion project for a major energy company in Middle East. We will deploy our flagship distributed control system and safety manager technologies amongst other solutions. We remain excited about the various automation opportunities across our portfolio. In Aerospace, we will invest more than $80 million to expand our Olathe plant in Kansas. This project will enable the production of next-generation avionics technology and directly create hundreds of jobs at site and in the local economy. This facility upgrade is another example of the resources we are committing to unlock the supply chain and our ongoing investment in the Aerospace Technologies business to drive growth. Finally, Honeywell will be incorporating our hydrocracking technology in the new DG Fuels SAF refinery to convert hydrocarbon liquids into SAF. This technology is a low-capital solution, which facilitates 90% reduction in CO2 intensity versus traditional fossil fuel-based jet fuels by using biomass as a feedstock. When completed, the refinery is expected to produce 600,000 tons of SAF every year. As demonstrated here, Honeywell remains committed to actively solving both our customers and worst, toughest challenges. Now let me turn it over to Greg on Slide 5 to discuss our first quarter results in more detail as well as provide our views on second quarter and full year 2024 guidance.
Gregory Lewis:
Thank you, Vimal, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on Slide 5. As a reminder, we're now reporting our results using the new segment structure, which went into effect in the first quarter. With that, let's discuss the results.
We delivered a very strong first quarter, exceeding the high end of our adjusted earnings per share guidance and meeting the high end of our organic sales and segment margin guidance ranges. Despite a dynamic macro backdrop, Honeywell's disciplined execution and differentiated solutions enabled us to deliver on our commitments. First quarter organic sales growth were up 3% year-over-year, led by 18% organic growth in Aerospace Technologies. This was the 12th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in our commercial aerospace business in addition to double-digit growth in Defense & Space. Segment profit grew 4% year-over-year, and segment margins expanded by 20 basis points to 22.2%, driven by expansion in Aerospace. Improved business mix, our focus on commercial excellence and benefits from productivity, allowed us to expand margins in line with the high end of our guidance range. Earnings per share for the first quarter was $2.23, up 8% year-over-year. And adjusted earnings per share was $2.25, up 9% year-over-year. While tax was a bit lighter relative to our first quarter guide, our full year tax expectations have not changed. A bridge for adjusted EPS from 1Q '23 to 1Q '24 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Orders were $10.2 billion in the quarter, down 1% year-on-year, which supported our backlog growth of 6% to a new record of $32 billion. This was led by quarter-over-quarter growth in aero, Building Automation and Industrial Automation, including in key short-cycle product businesses, namely productivity solutions and services in IA and fire in BA. This setup gives us confidence in our back half 2024 outlook, which I'll discuss in a few minutes. Free cash flow was approximately $200 million, up $1.2 billion versus the first quarter of 2023, due to the absence of last year's onetime settlement of legacy legal matters that derisked our balance sheet. Excluding the impact of these settlements, net of tax, free cash flow is up approximately $200 million as higher net income was partially offset by a higher working capital due to lower payables. However, we see working capital becoming a tailwind in the coming quarters as we unwind the multiyear buildup of excess inventory. We also continue to execute on our capital deployment strategy, putting our robust balance sheet to work through $1.6 billion, including $700 million in dividends, $700 million in share repurchases and $200 million in high-return capital expenditures. As you saw in February, we successfully issued $5.8 billion in bonds during the first quarter, including our first-ever 4-year maturity, taking advantage of strong demand in both the euro and dollar markets and locking in attractive long-term spreads, while extending our weighted average bond maturity from 7 to 10 years. Proceeds will be used primarily to fund our acquisition of the Carrier Global Access Solutions business and to address current debt maturities. This really demonstrates the attractiveness and strength of Honeywell in the capital markets that we have built over time. Now let's spend a few minutes on the first quarter performance by business. In Aerospace Technologies, sales were up 18% organically year-on-year, matching the third quarter of last year as among our strongest performances in over a decade. Increases in commercial aviation were led by original equipment, which saw over 20% growth in both air transport and Business & General Aviation as supply unlocks and deliveries continue to increase. We also saw significant growth in air transport aftermarket as global flight activity remains strong. In Defense & Space, robust demand and improvements in our supply chain enabled us to grow sales 16% in the quarter. AT had book-to-bill of approximately 1.1 in the quarter as commercial demand and benefits from the impact of an increased global focus on national security support a strong growth trajectory. Supply chain continues to show sustained modest sequential improvement, leading to a 15% increase in output year-on-year, marking the 7th consecutive quarter of double-digit output growth. Segment margin in Aerospace expanded 150 basis points year-over-year, driven by commercial excellence and volume leverage, partially offset by cost inflation and mix pressures within our original equipment business. For Industrial Automation, sales decreased 13% organically in the quarter, primarily as a result of lower volumes in warehouse and workflow solutions as investments in warehouse automation remains subdued. Our short-cycle sensing and safety technologies and productivity solutions and services sales were stable, but lower year-over-year with orders in our productivity solutions and services business growing sequentially and year-over-year for the second consecutive quarter, a positive sign that we're nearing a return to growth in that business. Process Solutions revenue was flat in the first quarter as growth in our aftermarket services business was offset by mega project timing. Segment margin in Industrial Automation contracted 200 basis points to 16.8%, driven by lower volume leverage and cost inflation, partially offset by productivity actions and commercial excellence. Building Automation sales were down 3% organically. We had another strong quarter of growth in our long-cycle building solutions business, while we worked through the volume challenges and the short-cycle building products area. Solutions grew 7% in the quarter, led by double-digit growth in building projects, driven by strong execution of our backlog. On a year-over-year basis, orders and building projects were up double digits with strength in our core business and robust performance in energy and airports. Sequentially, orders for Building Automation improved in the first quarter, highlighted by a seasonal lift in building services and modest improvement in fire, resulting in an overall Building Automation book-to-bill of 1.1. Segment margins contracted 120 basis points to 24%, due to mix headwinds from softer product volumes and cost inflation, partially offset by productivity actions and commercial excellence. Energy and Sustainability Solutions sales grew 5% organically in the first quarter. Advanced materials gained 6%, primarily driven by double-digit growth in flooring products. In UOP, sales were up 3% year-over-year as robust demand led to a double-digit increase in both petrochemical catalyst shipments and refining equipment more than offset expected challenging year-over-year comps in gas processing equipment projects. ESS book-to-bill was 1.2 in the first quarter, the second consecutive quarter of a book-to-bill above 1. Segment margin contracted 70 basis points on a year-over-year basis to 19.8% as onetime factory restart costs were partially offset by favorable business mix and productivity actions. Growth across our portfolio was supported by another quarter of double-digit sales growth in Honeywell Connected Enterprise, a powerful indicator of our strong software franchise powered by our differentiated Forge AI IoT platform. Our offerings in cyber, life sciences and connected industrials all grew by more than 20% year-over-year in the quarter. HCE continues to generate not only value for our customers, but accretive growth and profitability for Honeywell. The ongoing tailwinds in our long-cycle end markets and the strength of our backlog give us confidence in our ability to navigate the current operating environment. We continue to execute on our proven value creation framework underpinned by our Accelerator operating system, which will enable us to drive compelling growth in earnings and cash for quarters to come. Now let's turn to Slide 6 and talk about our second quarter and full year guidance. We delivered on our 1Q commitments while maneuvering through known risks. And as we look to the rest of 2024, our original guidance framework continues to be solid. We expect the environment to remain dynamic as we were reminded again by recent geopolitical events. However, our Accelerator operating system that enables us to move quickly and decisively, our exposure to attractive megatrends and our record backlog will continue to support organic growth for the business. This outlook includes continued progress among our long-cycle portfolio as well as a modest back half recovery in short cycle as markets continue to normalize. Overall, we have a strong setup that will drive growth within our long-term financial framework for sales, margin, earnings and cash in 2024. Now let's discuss how these dynamics come together for our 2024 guidance. Given the backdrop I just laid out, in total for 2024, we continue to expect sales to be in the range of $38.1 billion to $38.9 billion, which represents overall organic sales growth of 4% to 6% for the year with a greater balance between volume and price. We expect sequential improvement in the second half of 2024 over the first as Aerospace continues to grow its supply capabilities, coupled with a modest short-cycle recovery that should build momentum in the second half of the year, albeit with different rates of improvement for our various end markets. For the second quarter, we anticipate sales in the range of $9.2 billion to $9.5 billion, up 1% to 4% organically. We anticipate our overall segment margin to expand 30 to 60 basis points this year, supported by improving business mix, price/cost discipline and productivity actions, including our precision focus on reducing raw material costs. Similar to last year, Building Automation margins will lead the group in margin expansion, followed by Industrial Automation and Energy and Sustainability Solutions. For Aerospace, margins should remain relatively comparable to the last few years as volume leverage covers higher sales from the build-out of our original equipment installed base, which is driving robust year-over-year profit growth. For the second quarter, we expect overall segment margin in the range of 22.0% to 22.4%, roughly flat sequentially, but down 40 basis points to flat year-over-year, primarily due to volume deleverage in IA and the expiration of the Zebra licensing payments. Importantly, our guidance for both the second quarter and full year 2024 does not consider the planned acquisition of Carrier's Global Access Solutions business. We anticipate the closing of the deal by the end of the third quarter, and we'll update our guidance accordingly at that time. Now let's spend a few minutes on the outlook by business. Looking ahead for Aerospace Technologies, demand remains very encouraging across our end markets. Sales should grow sequentially in the second quarter, particularly in commercial original equipment as shipset deliveries continue to increase. However, we expect these sales to come at a lower margin, driving a sequential and year-over-year decrease in margin rate following the first quarter's strong result. Increased build rates and shipset deliveries will carry on throughout the year, leading commercial OE to be our strongest growth business in 2024. In commercial aftermarket, volume strength and further improvement in wide-body flight hours will support additional growth. We'll continue to work through our healthy order book in defense and space, generating sequential sales improvement throughout the year. Ongoing supply chain improvements will continue to support double-digit output growth in AT throughout 2024. For the year, we still expect Aerospace Technologies to lead organic growth for total Honeywell with sales in the low double-digit range. 2024 segment margin should be relatively comparable to 2022 and 2023, as volume leverage is mostly offset by higher sales of lower-margin products, a dynamic that likely leaves the first quarter at the high point for aero margins this year. In Industrial Automation, the timing of short-cycle recovery will remain an important factor in our 2024 results, leading a back half-weighted year. In the second quarter, IA should be roughly flat sequentially. We expect growth in Process Solutions to be offset by warehouse automation demand that remains near trough levels and the end of the $45 million quarterly license and settlement payments we have received for the past 2 years in our productivity solutions and services business. For the full year, Process Solutions will grow sequentially each quarter to build on last year's strong performance, driven by the aftermarket services business. Warehouse and workflow solutions will improve as we move through the trough of warehouse automation spending, while also benefiting from easing comps throughout the year. Our sensing and safety technologies business will benefit as the effects of distributor destocking fade throughout the year. Lifecycle solutions and services orders grew sequentially and year-over-year in the first quarter, and we expect that strength to continue throughout the rest of the year. Two consecutive quarters of orders growth in our Productivity solutions and services business provide confidence in a back half ramp, excluding the impact from the absence of additional Zebra payments. As a result of these dynamics, we continue to see flattish sales growth in 2024 for IA. We still expect segment margin to expand, particularly in the second half as short-cycle recovery leads to positive volume leverage. Moving to Building Automation. We remain confident in the overall outlook and execution of the business. For the second quarter, sales should improve sequentially as the channel further normalizes and our long-cycle businesses continue to benefit from strong backlog and aftermarket services tailwind. The timing of the short-cycle recovery remains one of the key drivers of business performance throughout the year, and our expectation for a more back half-weighted recovery in BA has not changed. As such, we will anticipate our long-cycle businesses to outpace our short-cycle portfolio, as both projects and services benefit from strong demand in backlog. Additionally, high-growth regions remain a core part of the growth strategy for this business, and encouraging signals from regions like India and the Middle East support our full year sales forecast, which remains low single-digit growth for the year. We anticipate BA will be the segment with the largest margin expansion, primarily driven by productivity actions and commercial excellence net of inflation. Finally, in Energy and Sustainability Solutions, the geopolitical environment will remain a key focus as we move through the year. In the second quarter, we expect sales to remain roughly flat year-over-year and sequentially, as sustained demand in flooring products and catalysts will offset remaining volume headwinds from challenging comps in gas processing equipment. For the full year, strong performance in those businesses is expected to offset volume declines in our legacy stationary products due to well-telegraphed quota reductions within the U.S. In sustainable technology solutions, robust demand will lead to another strong year of growth. We continue to monitor the ongoing short-cycle recovery, particularly from semiconductor fabs, a key component to achieving our unchanged top line expectation of flat to up low single digits for the year. Margins should improve throughout the year from a 1Q bottom, driven by a combination of commercial excellence and productivity actions. Moving on to other key guidance metrics. Pension income in 2024 will be roughly flat to 2023 at approximately $550 million. We anticipate net below-the-line impact to be between negative $550 million and negative $700 million for the full year and between negative $120 million and negative $180 million in the second quarter. This guidance includes repositioning spend between $200 million and $300 million for the full year and between $25 million and $75 million in the second quarter, as we continue to invest in high-return projects to support our future growth and productivity. We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be around 21% for both the full year and the second quarter. We anticipate average share count to be around 656 million shares for the full year, as we execute our commitment to reduce share count by at least 1% per year through opportunistic buybacks. As a result of all these inputs, we are maintaining our previously provided full year adjusted earnings per share range of $9.80 to $10.10, up 7% to 10% year-over-year. We anticipate second quarter earnings per share between $2.25 and $2.35, up 1% to 5% year-over-year. We also expect free cash flow to grow in line with earnings, excluding the after-tax impact of last year's onetime settlement from derisking our balance sheet. We are progressing on the multiyear unwind of working capital, where our efforts to improve demand planning and optimize production and materials management are yielding some early operational benefits, another indicator of the power of our digitalization capability through Accelerator. In addition, we will continue to fund high-return projects focused on creating uniquely innovative, differentiated technologies. As a result, our free cash flow expectations remain $5.6 billion to $6 billion for the year, up 6% to 13%, excluding the impact of prior year settlements. Our robust balance sheet and strong cash generation will support accretive capital deployment. And while we're happy with our recently announced transactions, we will further build on our active M&A pipeline as we continue to optimize the portfolio. So in summary, we executed a strong first quarter and anticipate delivering a strong second quarter and 2024, benefiting from our alignment to the compelling aerospace, automation and energy transition megatrends. Our record backlog and rigorous operating principles give us confidence in our track record of execution. So let me turn it now back to Vimal on Slide 7.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Greg. Let's take a minute to zoom out from the near-term dynamics and talk about the tremendous progress Honeywell has demonstrated across our key metrics since 2016. We remain keenly focused on delivering our long-term growth algorithm and remain confident in our ability to accelerate growth, achieve 25%-plus segment margins, expand gross margins to above 40% and generate free cash flow margins to mid-teens plus. This framework will enable us to deliver what matters
I'm incredibly optimistic about the high-value opportunities we are already surfacing during the next phase of our transformation. We'll continue to track our progression closely as our efforts to drive incremental sales growth, expand margins and generate more cash faster into our enhanced financial profile. Let's turn to Slide 8 for closing thoughts before we move into question and answers. Our value creation framework is working. While the economic backdrop remains fluid, we are deploying our rigorous operating playbook to effectively manage near-term challenges to meet our performance targets. Record backlog levels, ongoing strength in our biggest end market, aerospace and energy as well as an impeding recovery in our short-cycle businesses will allow us to achieve our strong results as we progress through 2024. This includes our margin expansion guidance, which will benefit from improving business mix, in addition to our continued focus on commercial excellence and productivity. It's no secret, I am excited about the future of Honeywell and believe our company is on track to drive the innovation needed to solve some of the world's most challenging problems and enhance the life of people around the world. As we move to Q&A, I want to take a moment to thank our 95,000 future shapers whose dedication and capabilities enable us to deliver the best of our customers, partners and communities every day. With that, Sean, let's take questions.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Vimal. Vimal and Greg are now available to answer your questions. [Operator Instructions] Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Scott Davis of Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Guys, in the spirit of kind of looking at the outliers here, warehouse automation is still really a tough spot. What's on the other side of this? Is this just a deeply cyclical business, so we're going to see a big bounce back? Have you structurally changed your cost structure? What's kind of on the other side of this tough period?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So Scott, if I get your question, just that I've missed the front word. Is it -- did you mention industrial automation or warehouse automation?
Gregory Lewis:
Warehouse automation.
Vimal Kapur:
Warehouse automation. Okay. Thank you.
Scott Davis:
Warehouse. Sorry, Vimal, warehouse.
Vimal Kapur:
No, I got it. I got it. Look, the need for warehouse automation is strong. There is no doubt that it drives labor productivity. So there is no debate on the basics of it. The interesting part is our pipeline remains strong, but order conversion is weak, specifically in the project side.
Another fact which encourages me about the business is the aftermarket continues to grow, which means once the systems are deployed, people use it well and our aftermarket business is in excess of $0.5 billion. We also have rationalized our cost base. All in, I would say the business is in trough right now, and we are waiting for its recovery. But net-net, we remain very optimistic and confident about the business prospects.
Scott Davis:
Okay. I appreciate that, Vimal. And you've been in the seat kind of long enough to have a good sense to, well, at least review the portfolio. Do you anticipate further portfolio actions, Vimal? It's still a relatively complex portfolio. We certainly get that feedback frequently. I'm sure you do as well. But has your view on the portfolio evolved at all since you've taken the role?
Vimal Kapur:
Scott, I would say it in two parts. I have committed that we will take action on about 10% of our portfolio, which doesn't fit with the 3 megatrends, and we are absolutely taking action on that. We will make progress one step at a time because that constitutes a few businesses and no one big thing.
On a broader basis, I will review with both, as I did last year on a broader Honeywell portfolio, and we will continue to be our own activist. And wherever there's a case to look at things differently, we absolutely will do that.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. And if I just build on that, I would say our pipeline on inbound as well is very healthy. You saw the Civitanavi announcement. You know that the Carrier deal is on its way. So we're on pace to deploy $10 billion this year with just what we know about, and we're not done.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Tusa at JPMorgan.
C. Stephen Tusa:
Can you just talk about maybe just sequentially how you see the earnings trajectory in 3 and 4Q?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So I would say the earnings, as we guided here, we gave the guide for Q2 and rest of the year. So I think the headline is that H2 will be stronger than H1, and that's built upon our order spacing. If you see our orders performance in Q1 was on expected lines, our book-to-bill is 1.1, our backlog is up 6%. Long cycle remains strong across the board in Aerospace and building solutions, and we expect the same trend in European Process Solutions. And short cycle is recovering on expected lines.
You saw the results of ESS. The chemical business did perform well on the strength of short cycle. We saw a recovery in scanning and mobility business. We saw some early green shoots in fire business. So things are progressing as we expected, and that's the basis of our guide for rest of the year. So the punchline is we're going to have stronger second half versus first half, and that's reflected on our earnings guide for the year.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. And we know that, that's outside of the normal historical comps that you've seen, but that's not really different than the way we've modeled the year so far. And to Vimal's point, we are starting to see some of those short-cycle order patterns. And we said that those were going to be different by end market as the year progresses. So no real change, Steve, to what we outlined in the original guidance.
C. Stephen Tusa:
So I guess just normally, you guys are up, I think, a little bit 2Q to 3Q. You're up like, I think, I don't know, low to mid-singles from 1Q to 2Q. Should we think about like just to kind of frame this, the ramp because it is from a timing perspective, is it 2Q to 3Q? What do you think?
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. So we're going to have a ramp from 2Q to 3Q as opposed to flat, and then the ramp from 3Q to 4Q will be greater than 2Q to 3Q.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
I think a lot of that second half pickup rests on the IA segment. So maybe just wanted to home in on that for a second. I think you'd guided full year sales there flattish, so about $10.8 billion. And it sounds like you're doing $2.5 billion a quarter in the first half. So you've got a sort of high teens half-on-half step-up in the second half in IA revenue from sort of $5 billion to $5.8 billion. Maybe help us understand which of the pieces inside IA will lead or lag that delta, and if it's similar to the firm-wide where there's some pickup in Q3 and then a steeper one in Q4 sequentially.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. So thanks, Julian. I mean the ramp for the company actually is in IA and in BA, and then we'll get sort of a nice ramp in the fourth quarter in ESS as well. So it really does come back to all the products businesses inside of each of those portfolios.
So think about in IA, PSS, the sensing business. In BA, think about fire and the BMS business. And then as Vimal mentioned earlier in ESS, you're going to get a continued step-up in electronics and chemicals as well as our normal sort of fourth quarter move in our catalyst business. So it's really not all predicated on any one segment overall. And it's going to be -- you've got your numbers approximately right in terms of the IA first half, second half overall. But you're going to see it across the portfolio. It's not going to be concentrated in any one specific business around the portfolio.
Vimal Kapur:
Only thing I'll add, Julian there, is that in IA, the HPS continues to perform very well. It's going to mirror the performance it had in 2023. So similar growth rates. The bookings remain very strong. Aftermarket is performing extremely strong. And that's the biggest constituents of the newly framed IA business.
And the short cycle is recovering. I remain very confident on short-cycle recovery. We have seen that in PSS business, it has 2 successive quarters of orders growth. We see that in early cycle in other businesses. So net-net, we are going to see strong exit rates in IA business at end of the year.
Julian Mitchell:
That's helpful. And then just my quick follow-up on the buildings division margins. So I think they're guided to be up maybe 100 bps or so for the year, above the firm-wide margin expansion. First quarter clearly starting down -- tricky down over 100 bps. So the slope of that, maybe help us understand kind of how do we think about the buildings margins in the second quarter? How quickly we start to see that flip to margin expansion in the rest of the year, please?
Gregory Lewis:
Sure. So again, you're going to see that tie a lot to the product volumes because of the volume leverage that comes with that and the margin rates associated with it are going to be very helpful in that margin ramp as well as the work that we've done on productivity, particularly around direct materials this year.
So that's -- our last 2 quarters were in the same neighborhood, right around 24 points with the lower product mix. And as the year progresses, you're going to see that move up sequentially throughout the remaining 3 quarters of the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Good to hear that short cycle is finally starting to move.
Vimal Kapur:
Absolutely, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on defense and space. That picked up very nicely, nice lever. Can you just talk specifically, and I know there are a lot of programs there. But what is driving that? And what's the outlook specifically for defense and space into the second half because this is a very, very impressive performance there.
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Look, the Q1 performance of defense and space was more linked to the supply chain unlock. That remains the biggest variable in Aerospace even in 2024.
We are very pleased with the strong growth in Q1. We expect high single-digit growth in defense and space in the revenue, but order booking will be much stronger. And that's driven by the fact of not only the demand in U.S. but the international demand, which is coming up in this business. And those trends are extremely favorable. So net-net, we do expect to finish the year strong, not only in the revenue side but equally strong on the order side on the defense.
Andrew Obin:
Got you. And maybe to -- shifting to ESS. Can you just talk about visibility of UOP? I know you guys were optimistic about some of the green projects coming in. And I think due to regulatory issues, it's just taking time. What does the pipeline look like? And what does the ramp look in this business into the year-end? And how do you balance this visibility on these projects and just the time it takes to get them approved?
Vimal Kapur:
So very bullish on UOP. I would say this business is headed for a great time ahead. The traditional projects continues to remain active while the new energy project on sustainability, a strong pipeline, and we see decisions now maturing. You saw in one of our exciting wins, we mentioned here new way to make SAF with the biomass now, which is a new technology we have launched.
So net-net, with the strength in traditional energy, strength in renewable technologies and catalysts, we are going to have a strong year for UOP, both in orders and revenue. And that's not only 2024. Look ahead for the business remains extremely, extremely positive in the times ahead.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
I wanted to ask about Aerospace. Commercial OE was really strong, up 24% in the quarter. How are you thinking about that for the full year just given slower MAX production we're seeing and the new news of the 787 also slowing down production there? Any top line margin or cash impact that you foresee? And then I just want to clarify the comment about margins for Aerospace. You said it would dampen just given OE mix, but I would think aftermarket would accelerate as we progress through the year.
Vimal Kapur:
Okay. So I think there are 3 questions there, Sheila, I'll try to pick up.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Sorry about that.
Vimal Kapur:
No, no problem. So the overall, we do expect commercial OE to grow double digits, both on the -- the commercial OE to grow double digits and aftermarket. So we'll maintain the strong growth trend as is indicated in our guide for the rest of the year.
To your comment specifically on 787 MAX, I won't give you a specific input on one particular platform. But I would say that our demand for Boeing hasn't changed. We know that we all heard their earnings call yesterday, and there are different drivers for that. But for Honeywell, we are present in multiple platforms, and the demand for them remains unwavered. I personally talk to Boeing leadership, and I'm very confident that's going to trend that way. On margins, it's a -- Q1 was strong. It's a mixed driver. As the year progresses, we have different product mix and mix between OE and aftermarket. So net-net, we are still guiding flattish margins for the year, and that's what we have given in our guidance.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie:
I just want to really focus my questions on margins. So just making sure that I understood some of the comments already. As you think about the rest of the year, I guess, how much of the margin expansion that you're expecting in both BA and IA is really dependent on short cycle accelerating?
And then, Vimal, just a quick clarification on the answer you just gave on the aero side of the business. The OE business was up, I think it was over 24% or something like that in aero. I'm just curious, like what were some of the kind of mix tailwinds you saw this quarter in aero? And again, why doesn't that continue going forward?
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. Joe, I mean, as it relates to the mix, I'm not going to bore you with the details, but it's actually quite deep between the different OEs, the shipsets within each of them and so forth. So that is going to migrate up and down during the course of the year as it goes. So there's not one particular thing happening there.
As Vimal mentioned though, we're going to continue to see very strong OE margins -- or excuse me, OE volumes during the year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the growth in OE actually accelerates in the next couple of quarters, not dramatically so, but in terms of its relative mix inside of the overall portfolio. So that's what I would say about aero. And then in terms of the margin rates in IA and BA, both of those businesses are seeing mix down with products softer. And so absolutely mix up with products growth is going to be a driver of those margins. But that also comes with a lot of the work we've been doing on the productivity side, both in direct materials as well as in our continued repositioning of the cost base that we have been doing. So our margin story is going to be a combination of the volume leverage, the product mix and our productivity actions that we continue to take, as you know, is always a strength for Honeywell.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Sorry to bore you in another -- obviously, aero margins were great. What's the timing of Boeing shipments to customers affected there? Just curious if there's a timing issue there. But mainly my question is around 2Q margin dynamics. And thinking about that drop-off in the Zebra royalty income in the second quarter, are we looking at maybe margins, I don't know, down like 300 basis points year-over-year in the second quarter for IA? And therefore, the balance of the segment margin performance is actually probably more like on trend? So just any more color on the 2Q margins by segment would be helpful.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. No, we don't expect IA margins to be down 300 basis points in 2Q on a year-over-year basis. We talked about the Zebra impact. Again, it's $45 million a quarter on the revenue side. There is some costs associated with that as we talked about over the last 2 years, as we've had that impact into our P&L. So you guys can do the math on the direct impact of just that item all by itself. But we have other actions in place to continue to offset that. I don't expect margins to necessarily be up year-on-year in IA, but nothing to the degree that we described in terms of 300 basis point drop.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. And then any color on aero margins in second quarter?
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. Just that I would expect them to be down sequentially from Q1, that Q1 is going to be the high point. And as we go through the year, again, our overall expectation is flattish on a year-on-year basis, but Q1 will be the high point.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Vimal, maybe can you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing by region? I think you mentioned strength in India. How important is that region becoming? And what are you seeing in China and Europe?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So I would say, if I go around the corner, we continue to see strength in our high-growth regions, specifically in India and Middle East. Those remain strong. China also did well for us. We grew high single digits on the strength of our aero and energy business. So net-net, we do see strong -- continued strong trend in emerging markets.
Europe has stabilized. I would say the worst is definitely behind us. We see more recovery and positive trends, specifically in short cycle, we talked about it earlier in Europe. And U.S., of course, is the balance here. So net-net, high-growth region remains a tailwind in overall revenue mix for Honeywell.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Great. And I just want to follow up on the process business. I think you mentioned delays. Is it you're seeing more geopolitical uncertainty or election fears, higher rates? I think you still have a good outlook for that business. Maybe talk about it a little bit more.
Vimal Kapur:
So Process Solutions business, absolutely. Our booking -- we carried a strong backlog, and our booking trends remains strong there. Aftermarket is double-digit growth for several quarters in a row. So that business will, as I mentioned before, will repeat 2023 pattern of high growth.
And we expect to do -- continue to do well in that segment, monetizing installed base, aftermarket software, all our strategies are really working. And also diversification into new verticals as the new energy segment are emerging like battery storage, gigafactories, all are becoming attractive growth optionality for us in that business.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Vimal, just back to kind of the ongoing portfolio review, and you said it could be many things, not one big thing. Can we take that? Or should we take that to mean as we look at kind of your revenue disaggregation, right, there's kind of 11 buckets we track and model to, that none of those entire sleeves would be gone at some point in time in your thought process?
Vimal Kapur:
Look, whenever we complete any action of addition and substraction, we'll give you an early guide for that. As I mentioned, this is no one step change. So it's not that we're going to take action of a $4 billion type of thing in a single move. But whenever we are ready to communicate, we'll give you a heads up on what's likely coming in.
For example, Carrier business will likely come in, Civitanavi will likely come in, and what are the implications on the guide? And then what goes out, if and when this happens, we'll provide you the guide. But what I can share with you is there is not going to be one mega event on divestiture. It's going to be a combination of multiple small events.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And one thing you have been clear on is ultimately, there's a monetization play on Quantinuum. Where are we there? Where's the spending tracking? And can you kind of give us an idea of maybe the time line of a monetization event?
Vimal Kapur:
So Quantinuum is in, I would say, exciting times. We completed a major event of pre-money. We got valuation in excess of $5 billion, got more people invested there. We talked about that in the last earnings call.
We also met another major milestone. I don't know if you read that Honeywell and Microsoft announced a major milestone of testing different scenarios to deliver reliable results. So Microsoft gave, ran 14,000 experiments on H2 quantum computer, and they were able to prove that every time all 14,000 times, we're able to deliver results with accuracy. Why it matters is in quantum, the repeatability or accuracy matters more than the speed at this point. Once we are able to solve the problem solving with accuracy, we can work on the speed part. So that's a major milestone, and that's what matters in quantum business. We continue to hit these milestones one after another, and we score some wins on the commercial side, and that has set us for the next event of the monetization somewhere in 2025. It's contingent upon hitting this, but I remain confident that we are on the right track on that. And by the way, the last comment I'll make there is AI is definitely giving us a lot more momentum. There's a deeper understanding and appreciation why quantum is necessary. And that's going to certainly help us when we are ready for an IPO or something similar in 2025.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Brett Linzey with Mizuho.
Brett Linzey:
Again, I wanted to come back to ESS. You noted the margin contraction on some of this onetime factory restart cost. Maybe could you quantify that? And then any detail on the nature of just the timing of some of these pressures?
Gregory Lewis:
Sure. So in our clean energy business, we had been operating as in a trading manner, and we had shut down the major facility some number of years ago in that business, and we restarted it. And so as you can imagine, that restart has some fits in it as we go through the course of the year to get to stabilization. And that's really the -- if you look at ESS margins, I'm not going to give you precise numbers. But if you back out the impact of that, we would have been roughly flat, maybe slightly up on a margin rate basis year-on-year in the first quarter.
And so that's going to take some time to get to stability. But the good news is this is a great business. The long-term dynamics for it from a pricing standpoint, a supply standpoint are very favorable. As we exit the year, we're going to have more stable operations internally. And so we're going to have a very nice exit rate going into 2025 with a very strong business. And again, that business is, think about it being around about $400 million on an annual basis.
Brett Linzey:
All right. Got it. And then just one more on M&A. Just thinking about the velocity there. I know last May, you talked about the pipeline prioritization. I think you had 90 deals looking at within your markets, and that's still at the top 10. I guess how is that 90 compared today? I mean it sounds like the enthusiasm, it sounds a little bit more optimistic about some actionability. But maybe just talk about some of the pipeline and the movement there.
Vimal Kapur:
Absolutely. I would say the pipeline is very strong as we sit today. Of course, we compete for every target, and we remain very sensitive to both strategic fit and valuation fit. So net-net, we do expect to continue to take some actions on adding new business to our portfolio. And overall, my tone is very positive on that.
Okay. Just to wrap up here, I want to continue to express my appreciation to our shareholders for your ongoing support and, again, to our Honeywell future shapers, who continue to drive differentiated performance. Our future is bright, and look forward to sharing our progress with you as we continue to execute on our commitments. Thank you for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing-by and welcome to the Honeywell Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation there will be a question-and-answer session. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Jamila. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings and 2024 Outlook Conference Call. On the call with me today are Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapur; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our Investor Relations website. From time-to-time we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website. Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2023, discuss our outlook for the year and share our guidance for the first-quarter and full-year 2024. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to CEO, Vimal Kapur.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. To start, I would like to acknowledge some important leadership changes announced this morning. First, Honeywell's Board of Director has elected me to take on additional role of Chairman when our current Executive Chairman, Darius Adamczyk retires from the Board in June. Additionally, Bill Ayer has been elected to succeed Scott Davis as Independent Lead Director of the Board effective this May. First, I want to thank Darius for his innumerable contributions to Honeywell, as well as his mentorship over the past two years in particular. I would also like to thank Scott for his insights over the past four years at Independent Director and leadership throughout the CEO succession process. Congratulations to Bill for his appointment as our new Lead Director, I look forward to partnering with him in achieving Honeywell's strategic growth initiatives. Lastly, I would like to thank Darius and the Board for their support in naming me Chairman. I am humbled and honored to lead this great company and wake-up everyday energized to take on world's toughest challenges along with our 100,000 future shapers. Now let's turn to the main topic of today and discussion on Slide 3. We had a solid finish to another challenging year, delivering on our 2023 commitments. Honeywell's world-class Accelerator operating system and differentiated portfolio of technology, enabled us to achieve our initial full-year guidance for organic growth, adjusted earnings per share and free-cash flow and surpass the high-end of our original guidance for segment margin expansion. Full-year's organic growth of 4% year-on-year was a strong demonstration of resiliency by our long-cycle Aerospace and Energy oriented businesses, while we await acceleration in some of our short-cycle businesses, as markets continue to normalize. Before we get into a more detailed discussion on 2023 results and 2024 outlook, expectations, let me take a minute to revisit my priorities for Honeywell. First, our aim is to deliver the upper-end of our long-term organic sales growth target range of 4% to 7%. In order to achieve that, we are enhancing our innovations playbook, accelerating our offering in sustainability and software, monetizing our installed-base and leveraging our leadership position in high-growth regions. Second, over the last six years, the effort of the great integration have transformed Honeywell into an integrated operating company that deploys world-class capability at-scale and multiple growth enablers that benefit the entire enterprise. We are evolving Honeywell Accelerate Version 3.0 of our operating system to drive further value through standardization by business model built on our contemporary digital backbone. In addition to making this organization simpler and more efficient to operate, Accelerator is a powerful source of profitable growth. All of our businesses and potential addition to our portfolio. Third, we continue to evaluate and undertake actions to optimize our portfolio. We’ll do so by executing on strategic bolt-on acquisitions, while divesting non-core lines of business to consistently upgrade the quality of the portfolio and accelerate value creation. This is a powerful combination, which delivers profitable growth and strong cash generation, creating a compelling long-term value proposition for our shareowners. Now let's turn to slide four to discuss our progress on portfolio shaping goals. In the fourth quarter, we announced the acquisition of Carrier's Global Access Solution business for nearly $5 billion, enabling Honeywell to become a leader in security solution for the digital age. This transaction, which is clearly in line with our strategic bolt-on M&A framework further enhances our equipment agnostic, high-margin product business mix within building automation Honeywell's overall security portfolio will be more than $1 billion in sales. When the deal closes this year growing at accretive rate to support Honeywell long-term growth framework. In addition, earlier in January Quantinuum announced its first equity raise since the merger of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum Computing in late 2021, securing $300 million at a pre-money valuation of $5 billion, demonstrating Quantinuum’s leading position on [fault-tolerant] (ph) quantum computing. The round was anchored by Quantinuum’s strategic partner JP Morgan Chase with additional participation from Mitsui & Company, Amgen and Honeywell. This investment brings the total capital raised by Quantinuum since inception to approximately $625 million. Quantum computing is the key enabler for AI to reach scale potential and Quantinuum is a pioneering key breakthrough and expanding use cases across a number of industries. Honeywell remains a majority owner with over 50% equity ownership and we are committed to demonstrating a path to monetization of our [stake] (ph) within the next 18 months. With the recent portfolio announcement we are on a track to accelerate capital deployment and exceed our commitment to deploy at least $25 billion of capital in 2023 through 2025 with a bias towards high value accretive M&A. Our balance sheet then continues to give us meaningful capacity for both opportunistic share repurchases and M&A and the ongoing relatively favorable [demand] (ph) environment in 2024 will support the execution of our M&A strategy on a consistent basis. Before I hand over to Greg, let me turn to Slide 5 to review some of our recent exciting wins. Let me briefly highlight some of our recent commercial proof points. These wins demonstrate innovation across our portfolio and support Honeywell's recently announced plan to align its portfolio to three compelling megatrends
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Vimal. And good morning, everyone. Let me begin on Slide 6. As a reminder, we're reporting fourth quarter and full year 2023 results under our legacy segment breakdown and providing our 2024 outlook using the new segment structure which went into effect in January. With that, let's turn to the results. We had a strong finish to another challenging year delivering on our 2023 commitments. Despite a dynamic macro backdrop, Honeywell's disciplined execution and differentiated solutions enabled us to deliver on our full year organic sales, segment margin, earnings and free cash flow commitments. Full year organic sales were up 4% year-over-year, achieving the low end of our long-term financial growth algorithm and beating the midpoint of our initial guidance, despite a 5% drag from lower safety and productivity solutions sales. Segment profit grew 8% year-over-year with segment margin expansion of 100 basis points to 22.7% above our long-term annual expansion target of 40 basis points to 60 basis points and 10 basis points above the high end of our initial guidance. Adjusted earnings per share grew 5% or 11% when excluding the impact of lower non-cash pension income year-over-year. We generated free cash flow of $4.3 billion at the high end of our guidance range, or $5.3 billion excluding the after-tax impact of one-time settlements. We deployed $8.3 billion of capital, including $3.7 billion to share repurchases, $1 billion to CapEx, $700 million to M&A, and $2.9 billion to dividend payouts, which we increased for the 14th time in the past 13 years. Fourth quarter organic sales were up 2%, led by the 11th consecutive quarter of double digit growth in our commercial aerospace business. Segment margin expanded by 60 basis points to 23.5%, driven by expansion in performance materials and technologies and aerospace. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter was $1.91, up 26% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share was $2.60, up 3% year-over-year. An adjustment to our estimated future Bendix liability at the end of the year and our annual pension mark to market adjustment drove the difference between earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share. Excluding a $0.13 non-cash pension income headwind, adjusted earnings per share was up 8%. Bridges for adjusted EPS from both 4Q 2022 to 4Q 2023 and FY 2022 to FY 2023 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Free cash flow was $2.6 billion with free cash flow margin of 27.4% versus 23.1% in 4Q, as working capital was a greater source of cash compared to the prior year. We deployed $2.6 billion of cash flow to share repurchases, dividends, high-return CapEx and M&A. The fourth quarter was another strong one for our backlog, which grew to a new record of $31.8 billion, up 8% year-over-year and 1% sequentially, due to strength in Aero, PMT, and HBT. Orders were up 1% in the quarter led by growth in commercial Aero, PMT, and HPT, including orders growth in building products. This setup gives us confidence in our 2024 outlook which I will discuss in a few minutes. As always we continue to execute on our proven value creation framework which is underpinned by our Accelerator operating system. I'm confident in the strength of our backlog, the tailwinds we're seeing across our long cycle end markets, and our ability to navigate a dynamic operating environment, which we have demonstrated year after year. Now, let's spend a few minutes on the fourth quarter performance by business. Aerospace for the fourth quarter was up 15% organically year-over-year, with 20% growth in commercial aviation. Our commercial original equipment business grew over 20% on increased deliveries to both air transport and business and general aviation customers. Commercial aftermarket had another double-digit growth quarter led by the strength in air transport market as increased flight hours continued to drive demand. Defense and space sales grew again in the fourth quarter as the ongoing global focus on national security continues to drive robust demand, while we continue to work through supply chain challenges which govern that growth. Aerospace book-to-bill of around 1 in the fourth quarter is more evidence that demand continues to outpace supply, an encouraging sign that as the supply chain unlocks we're well situated to capitalize on our advantageous position in the market. Segment margin expanded 20 basis points to 28% as a result of commercial excellence and volume leverage, which were partially offset by cost inflation and mixed pressure in our original equipment business. Performance material and technology sales grew 4% organically in the fourth quarter, advanced material was up 6%, returning to growth in the quarter, driven primarily by a double digit increase in fluorine products. In HPS, sales were up 4% organically as we saw continued strength in life cycle solutions and services and smart energy. UOP sales grew 1% organically as a result of robust seasonal demand in petrochemical catalyst shipments, partially offset by lower volumes in gas processing. Our sustainable technology solutions business finished the year with over 30% sales and orders growth in the fourth quarter. Orders for PMT grew across all three businesses. Segment margin expanded 200 basis points to 24% as a result of productivity actions, favorable business mix, and commercial excellence net of inflation. Safety and productivity solutions sales decreased 24% organically in the quarter, primarily as a result of lower volumes and warehouse and workflow solutions and productivity solutions and services. The projects portion of our Intelligrated business remains around trough levels as investments in warehouse automation continue to be subdued. However, our pipeline of new projects is robust and we are committed to delivering innovative solutions to a widening array of customers in this market, positioning Honeywell to win in an eventual recovery. In our productivity solutions and service business, we continue to work through the effects of distributor de-stocking, but over 30% orders growth in the quarter provides some confidence that we are near the end of that cycle. Sensing and Safety Solutions remains relatively resilient despite short cycle challenges in a few end markets. Segment margin in SPS contracted 290 basis points to 17.3%, driven by lower volume leverage and cost inflation, partially offset by productivity actions and commercial excellence. Building technology sales were down 1% organically as growth in our long-cycle building solutions business was offset by modest declines in short-cycle building products. Solutions grew 6% in the quarter, led by high single-digit growth in building services, driven by strong execution and past due backlog burndowns. Orders were strong across the board in the fourth quarter, as every business grew year-over-year. Segment margin contracted 90 basis points year-over-year to 23.9% due to cost inflation and mixed headwinds, partially offset by productivity actions and commercial excellence. Growth across our portfolio was supported by another quarter of double-digit sales growth in Honeywell Connected Enterprise, which remains accretive to overall Honeywell. Our offerings in connected industrial, cyber, connected buildings, life sciences and connected aircraft, all grew by more than 20% year-over-year in the quarter. For the full-year, HCE sales and profit [fall] (ph) through by double-digits, which is an indicator of the power of our strong software franchise. With 2023 now in the rear-view, we're excited about Honeywell's favorable setup to accelerate growth in 2024. Let's turn to Slide 7 to talk about our outlook for the year. We expect the environment to remain dynamic, but the power of our Accelerator operating system enables us to move quickly and decisively to drive growth, protect margins, ensure liquidity and position ourselves well to deliver on our commitments and I'm confident we'll do that again in 2024. Our end-market exposures across aerospace, automation and energy remain favorable with continued commercial aviation fleet growth, higher defense investment, heightened focus on automation, due to labor scarcity, intensifying energy demand and decarbonization goals and increased infrastructure spending. These compelling vertical tailwinds are underpinned by the ongoing demand for digitalization and our record level backlogs, which will support robust organic growth for the business. This outlook is somewhat tempered by the uncertain timing of an eventual recovery in the short-cycle as markets return to normalcy, which we see as the swing factor to our sales outcome for the year. But we're excited by the prospects of this re-acceleration in the coming quarters. Overall, we have a strong setup that will drive growth within our long-term financial framework for sales, margin, earnings and cash in 2024. Our robust balance sheet and strong cash generation will support accretive capital deployment. And while we're happy with our recently-announced transaction, we will continue to build-on our accretive M&A pipeline as we optimize the portfolio. Now let's turn to Slide 8 to discuss how these dynamics come together for our 2024 guidance. Given the backdrop, in total for 2024, we expect sales of $38.1 billion to $38.9 billion, which represents an overall organic sales growth range of 4% to 6% for the year with a greater balance between volume and price. Our guide anticipates some short-cycle recovery to begin in the second-half of the year, albeit likely at different rates for our various end-markets, creating a somewhat back-half weighted outlook. Additionally, we remain keenly focused on new product innovation, maintaining our leadership position in high-growth regions, monetizing our vast installed-base and strengthening our software franchise, which we expect to provide resiliency through the year. We also expect the Aero supply-chain to continue to improve gradually sequentially throughout the year as it did in 2023. For the first-quarter, we anticipate sales in the range of $8.9 billion to $9.2 billion, flat-to-up 3% organically. We expect our overall segment margin to expand 30 basis points to 60 basis points next year, supported by improving business mix, continued price-cost discipline and productivity actions, including our precision focus on reducing raw-material costs. Similar to last year, we expect building automation margins to expand the most as we benefit from productivity actions and build-on continued commercial excellence, followed by industrial automation and energy and sustainability solutions. For aerospace, volume leverage will cover continued investment in our innovation platforms and in the supply-chain to unlock volume. Keeping our margin rate within a tight band of our recent levels, while enabling us to deliver robust year-over-year profit growth. For the first-quarter, we expect overall segment margin in the range of 21.9% to 22.2%, down 10 basis points to up 20 basis points year-over-year. Importantly, our guidance for both the first quarter and the full-year for 2024 does not consider the planned acquisition of Carrier's Global Access Solutions business. We anticipate the closing of the deal by the end-of-the third quarter, and we'll update our guidance accordingly at that time. Now let's spend a few minutes on our outlook by business. In Aerospace Technologies, we expect that robust demand will remain throughout 2024 as our record level backlog provides a catalyst for growth. In commercial original equipment build rates continue to trend upwards, driving increase in chipset deliveries, primarily in air transport. On the commercial aftermarket side, we expect to see volume strength as flight hours continue to improve, particularly in wide-body as international travel normalizes further. In defense and space, supplies -- supply-chain constraints not demand will be the limiting factor on volume growth. However, our output growth of 18% in 2023 across Aero gives us confidence in our ability to execute and we anticipate modest sequential improvement throughout the year. For overall Aerospace, we expect organic growth in the low-double-digit range in 2024. While we again expect Aero to be our fastest top-line grower, margins will likely remain at comparable levels to 2022 and 2023, as higher sales of lower-margin products are mostly offset by increased volume leverage. In the first quarter, we expect to see low-teens organic growth year-over-year as the progress we've made on supply-chain throughout 2023, coupled with our record backlog will drive continued meaningful year-over-year output growth. For Industrial Automation, the timing of short-cycle recovery will play a key factor in 2024 results and are -- and will likely lead to a back-half weighted year. In Process Solutions, we expect to further build on the success we experienced in 2003 with another strong year of growth, particularly in our projects and aftermarket services business. Our sensing and safety technologies and Productivity Solutions and Service businesses will benefit as the effects of distributor destocking fade throughout the year. In warehouse and workflow solutions, we expect to move through the trough of the warehouse automation spending cycle, capitalizing on our robust pipeline and easier year-over-year comps as the year goes on. As a result of these dynamics, we expect IA sales to be flattish in 2024. Segment margins should expand, particularly in the second-half as short-cycle recovery leads to volume leverage benefits. In the first quarter IA will remains sequentially stable, while challenging comparisons in warehouse automation demand that is still near trough levels will weigh on year-over-year growth, leading to high single-digit to low-double-digit sales declines year-over-year. Turning to Building Automation, we see a -- we expect to see our long-cycle businesses again outpace our short-cycle portfolio, particularly early in 2024. Overall, the timing of the short-cycle recovery will be one of the key drivers of performance in the year and likely lead to stronger results in the second-half. Both projects and services will grow on the strength of existing backlog and tailwinds from aftermarket services. We are seeing encouraging signs in our core verticals, both in the US and internationally as institutional investment in developing regions will be an engine for growth in BA. We anticipate our short-cycle products businesses will benefit as inventory levels normalize. For Building Automation, we forecast full-year sales growth to be low-single digit year-on year. Despite this, we anticipate BA will be the segment with the largest margin expansion, primarily driven by productivity actions and commercial excellence net of inflation. In the first-quarter we expect sales growth to be similar to the fourth quarter as destocking reaches its late stages. In Energy and Sustainability Solutions, the macro-environment will provide puts and takes in 2024. UOP growth will be led by strength in our Catalysts and Services businesses, while our Process Technologies business, modular equipment growth will likely be offset by volume headwinds from challenging comps in LNG equipment. In Sustainable Technology Solutions robust demand will lead to another record year of growth. In Advanced Materials, strength in the broader fluorine products business, particularly in our [indiscernible] portfolio will be offset by expected volume decline in our legacy stationery products, due to well-telegraphed quota reductions from the US. Within the rest of Advanced Materials, improving short-cycle demand over the course of 2024, particularly from semiconductor fabs will support the top-line. Overall, we expect [VSS] (ph) sales to be flat-to-up low-single digits for the year compared to 2023. Margin should improve in 2024, though not as much as in our other segments, thanks to both commercial excellence and productivity actions. In the first-quarter, we expect sales to be down mid to-high single-digits year-over-year as we work-through challenging comps, particularly in our gas processing business and prepare for higher activity levels as the year progresses. Moving on to other key guidance metrics. Pension income will be roughly flat to 2023 at approximately $550 million, which is modestly more positive than compared to our outlook comments from the third quarter earnings call, as the interest-rate environment became slightly more favorable towards the year end. As a reminder, pension income is a non-cash item, given our overfunded pension status will ensure no incremental contributions are needed. This is a great position to be in for our employees, both former and current and our shareholders. We anticipate net below-the-line impact to be between negative $550 million and negative $700 million for the full-year and between negative $140 million and negative $190 million in the first-quarter. This guidance includes a slight improvement in year-over-year repositioning spend, which will be between $200 million and $300 million for the full-year and between $60 million and $100 million in the first-quarter, as we continue to invest in high-return projects to support our future growth and productivity. We expect the adjusted effective tax-rate to be around 21% for the full-year and around 22% for the first-quarter due to timing of discrete payments. We anticipate average share count to be around 656 million shares for the full-year as we execute on our commitment to reduce share count by at least 1% per year through opportunistic buybacks. As a result of these inputs, we anticipate full-year adjusted earnings per share to be between $9.80 and $10.10, up 7% to 10% year-on year. We expect first-quarter earnings per share to be between $2.12 and $2.22, up 2% to 7% year-over-year. Included in the appendix is a bridge that walks the elements of 2024 adjusted earnings per share from 2023. You'll see the primary year-over-year drivers are higher volumes and increased productivity, with lower share count offsetting below-the-line changes, which are primarily from higher net interest expense. On free-cash flow, we expect to grow in-line with earnings, excluding the after tax impact of last year's one-time settlement from derisking our balance sheet. We will begin the multi-year unwind of working capital, where our digitalization capabilities through Accelerator are improving demand planning and optimizing production and materials management. In addition, we see several compelling growth-oriented capital investment opportunities and expand -- expect to fund high-return projects focused on creating uniquely innovative, differentiated technologies. As a result, we expect free-cash flow to be in the $5.6 billion to $6 billion range, up 6% to 13% excluding the impact of prior year settlements. Our 2024 free-cash flow bridge is in the appendix and summarizes the drivers of year-over-year growth with net income growth being the largest factor, followed by working capital improvements, partially offset by modestly higher-growth CapEx spend. Regarding capital deployment, while we are focused on executing our robust M&A pipeline, opportunistic share repurchase at highly-attractive valuations, which you saw in the second-half of 2003 as we accelerated our buyback in 3Q and again in 4Q remains an important part of our framework, a vote of confidence in Honeywell's performance and that will continue to be true in 2024. So in summary, while we're cautious on the macroeconomic backdrop, our leverage to the key macro trends of Aerospace, automation and the energy transition, underpinned by digitalization, which will be complemented by our record backlog and accelerated operating system, give us confidence in delivering another strong year in 2024. So with that, let me turn it back to Vimal on Slide 9.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Greg. Let's take a minute to zoom out from the near-term dynamics and talk about how our financial algorithm translates into value through EPS growth. Last May, we unveiled our updated long-term financial growth algorithm. One of the strengths of that framework is that we have demonstrated that we can balance between the levers we have to deliver what matters, consistent, compelling EPS growth. Let me unpack this for a moment. Our annual 4% to 7% organic sales growth and 40 basis point to 60 basis point of margin expansion alone will deliver 6% to 10% of organic EPS growth. Some years, one or other of these elements move. But as you have seen, 6% to 10% delivery has been consistent hallmark of Honeywell. When coupled with 1% to 2% of EPS accretion from both share buyback and consistent M&A execution, we are confident we'll deliver double-digit adjusted EPS growth at the midpoint on a [true] (ph) cycle basis. The strength of our dividend currently yielding about 2% also adds further value to our shareholder returns. Although there has been some noise in the results, mostly related to below the line, we have delivered 8% segment profit growth and 2% adjusted EPS accretion from the share repurchases on an average during the past few years, in line with the long-term financial framework. Now, we are ramping our M&A lever, which should drive incremental benefits. With that, let's go to the next page to discuss our recent progress on this long-term growth algorithm. As you can see on Slide 10, our 2023 results represent another year of strong financial performance consistent with our framework, following meaningful progress since 2016, inorganic growth, gross margin, segment margin expansion, and free cash flow reacceleration. Similarly, our 2024 expectation for organic growth, gross margin, segment margin, and free cash flow margins are solidly in line with our long-term commitment as we continue to make steady, consistent improvement in quality of Honeywell's financial profile. We are reorienting the organization to prioritize organic growth, deploying the operational power of Accelerator 3.0, and executing on a robust portfolio optimization strategy, which will enable us to achieve our long-term targets. I look forward to the next phase of transformation and remain optimistic about the tremendous opportunities we are uncovering to capture value, drive incremental sales growth, expand margins, and generate more cash. We'll continue to track our progression closely and update you as these efforts increasingly transfer into our enhanced financial performance. Now, let's turn to Slide 11 for closing thoughts before we move to Q&A session. We delivered on all of our 2023 commitments. We are confident in our ability to weather the dynamic macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop with operating rigor you have come to expect of Honeywell. Recent record backlog levels, ongoing strength in our biggest end markets, aerospace and energy, as well as impending recovery in our short-cycle business will support strong result as we progress through 2024. I remain optimistic about the future of Honeywell and believe the company is well-positioned to drive the innovation needed to solve some of the world's most challenging problems. The future is really what we make it. With that, Sean, let's move to Q&A.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Vimal. Vimal and Greg are now available to answer your questions. We ask you please be mindful of others in the queue by only asking one question and one related follow-up. Camilla, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, good morning.
Vimal Kapur:
Hey, Steve.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Can you just talk about the sequential progression in EPS as we move through the year off of the first quarter base here?
Greg Lewis:
You're talking about for the full year?
Steve Tusa:
Yes. I mean the first quarter is a little bit light as a percentage of the year, so just trying to understand how things build for the next three quarters to get to the midpoint of guide?
Greg Lewis:
Sure. I mean, if you look at the guide we're giving for Q1, it's actually not that different from 2023. So, as we progress through the year, we're going to expect to see the short cycle revenue inflection more likely between 2Q and 3Q than 1Q and 2Q in terms of the level of -- that acceleration. And so, I think the EPS will follow along with that. I mean, the last two years, our EPS has been more back-end weighted in third and fourth quarter than our prior history. I think it's going to look fairly similar this year.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, and then just one on the building's business. What are you guys seeing there, and what are you assuming for the products business in the next few quarters? There's obviously a lot of noise in the channel there, and also just from an end market demand perspective, maybe touch on regionally as well in the building business?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes, Steve. So we had a quarter 4 finish in which our buildings orders were grew across all segments, both in building products and in building solutions. So that puts us in a good setup for 2024. To your specific question, the setup we have allows us to see sequential progress in the short cycle as the year progresses, and the front end of the year will see more strength in our solution side of the business. Europe remains challenged, as it was, over the last several quarters. And in US, we are in the late innings of destocking of the distributor inventories. So that's the overall setting. What excites me about the business is the work we have done on new products, that's going to position us well, our strength in high growth regions, which is performing exceedingly well. So net-net, we remain pretty confident on growth in building solutions, building automation business in 2024, specifically margin expansion and are confident of delivering strong results there.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is now open.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe just wanted to try and think about the progress through the year from a segment margin standpoint. I guess you've had seven quarters in a row of good year-on-year expansion. Q1 is sort of flat and then the year is up close to that sort of 50-bips mark. So you're exiting the year in Q4 maybe with margins up 100-bips plus. So just trying to understand starting Q1 at zero, Q4 up 100, where does kind of the sharpest improvement come on a segment basis as you go through the year? And do we think about that margin year-on-year improvement firm wide as just being pretty steady as we go through 2024?
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Julian. Again, I would tell you a lot of the guidance fundamentals are tied pretty closely to the short cycle recovery. And what I mean by that is, we don't expect a big inflection in the first half, and so therefore our segment profit improvement in the first half versus the second half is going to be a bit lower. And as those short cycle businesses recover, remember, those are some of the highest margin businesses in the portfolio. So that volume leverage is going to be pretty powerful as we go through the year. And that'll be true in each of those non-Aero related businesses.
Vimal Kapur:
What I'll add, Julian is, if I look at the full year picture for the margin expansion, what we have committed 30 basis points to 60 basis points, there are three broad drivers. The pricing will remain of the order of 3%. Our price cost will not be a headwind. We remain very confident on our pricing execution. Second, we will see good productivity in 2024. Material productivity remains strong in Q4 and we expect that to roll up on a full year basis in 2024. We also have made good progress in executing AI in our operation, and that will be also a source of productivity in 2024. And finally, the short cycle recovery point, which Greg made, as that unpacks itself, the margin accretion we have on that is pretty substantial. So when you put it all together, we remain extremely confident on our margin expansion algorithm.
Julian Mitchell:
That's helpful. Thank you. And just my quick follow up, if we look at, say, Slide 15, trying to understand sort of the shape of that sales recovery, you've got those two units at the bottom, productivity solutions and service and warehouse and workflow. If we think about those two businesses, one exited the year just finished down 25 and the other exited down 50, what's the exit rate for 2024 for those two that's embedded in the sales guide, please.
Greg Lewis:
Yeah, well, again, we don't guide that specifically, but you should expect that this exit rate diminishes as the year progresses, and as we get into the back half of the year, that turns to be something that is likely positive on productivity solutions and services and will be flattish on warehouse and workflow solutions. And perhaps up, we'll see how the year progresses on the project side. An important thing to keep in mind is inside of the warehouse business, in particular, we've got actually a very rich mix now on the aftermarket services business. So while the projects orders will really be the thing that will govern the top line progression overall, we see double digit growth continuing in the aftermarket bit, which of course is where we capture the value from the install base. So we feel very good about the progression of that as we go through the year.
Vimal Kapur:
Maybe to add to Greg's point on warehouse solutions business, the top line has been challenging, but I see that this as not a headwind for EPS in 2024. We have taken action that Greg spoke about aftermarket. The aftermarket continues to be strong and will be a factor of growth in 2024. We have taken meaningful action on our cost base, specifically on supply chain. And when we put those actions together, which is in our control, we see margin expansion in this business. And in spite of top line pressure, it will not be a source of EPS solution. It will be a source of EPS accretion.
Greg Lewis:
And Julian, if I could add just one last thing there. From a modeling perspective, keep in mind it's not just a dynamic embedded in our model for 2024, second half likely stronger than the first half. It's also that second half 2023 was weaker than first half 2023. So both of those will influence the year-over-year growth rate as you're talking about exiting 2023 versus exiting 2024.
Julian Mitchell:
That's great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research. Your line is now open.
Scott Davis:
Hey, good morning, Vimal and Greg and Sean.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Scott Davis:
Good morning. Guys, can we take a step backwards at least and just walk around the world a little bit on what you're assuming? I assume, Vimal, you probably have pretty good read on what's going on in China. It's been a tough region for a lot of your peers, but you don't need to really focus on Aerospace because it's a different dynamic. But for the other businesses, perhaps just a little bit of color on what you're expecting, any differences in 2024 geographically versus 2023. That'd be helpful. Thanks.
Vimal Kapur:
Yes, thanks, Scott. So, specifically talking about -- let me start with China. We grew about 7% in 2023. I don't expect a material shift between 2024 to 2023. We have weathered a tough year in 2023, China's economic cycle. And I expect 2024 to be a shade better, but it's no more going to be a source of high growth, what it used to be five or seven years back. Speaking more broadly of high growth regions, which represents almost 25% of the Honeywell revenue now. We had very good performance in Middle East and India in particular, and we expect those trends to continue in 2024. India grew for us high double digits. In 2023, we had very meaningful revenue there, similar good performance in the Middle East, so we expect those regions to perform well. All in all, I expect high-growth regions to grow double-digit, which will be a source of organic growth, about a percent, and overall Honeywell algorithm of organic growth. Europe remains challenging. We have seen headwinds in some portions of our businesses and tailwinds in some other portions. So net-net, it's more neutral to negative. And US, of course, we are like everybody else, waiting for interest rate environment to settle. And that will determine the performance of our business, specifically on the short cycle. So that's kind of my broad overview of how we see different geographies.
Scott Davis:
Okay, that's helpful. And then a little bit of a nuance here. Would you classify the Carrier deal as a bolt-on? It seems like a little larger than a bolt-on by my definition, but kind of curious how you think about it, because clearly in your slides you mentioned bolt-on deals being the focus and if we were to expect other kind of like billionish…
Vimal Kapur:
I would call it bolt-on, because my argument is that, bolt-on to me is which is adding to our core portfolio and propels the growth of organic growth of the business itself. So that's what this business is. If you see our Buildings Products business, our strategy is to have products which are specified, which are critical for the building. We had a moderate position in security with the addition of this portfolio makes us a meaningful player. And therefore I call it a bolt-on, because it's a continuum of our strategy. We're not finding a new adjacency. We're not exploring some new idea. It's something we understand extremely well. And therefore, our confidence to add shareholder value here is extremely strong.
Greg Lewis:
And keep in mind, at $5 billion, it's something like 4% of our market cap. So reasonably, it's not a huge bet as it relates to that as well. Obviously, very different world than when our market cap was half that 10 years ago.
Scott Davis:
Sure. Understood. Thank you, guys. I'll pass it on. Good luck this year.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Hey, just looking at UOP, I was a little bit surprised by the growth in the quarter. I would have thought with STS being strong, and I know you sort of gave us, I think it was a gas product, but can you just tell us what kind of visibility do you have on this business accelerating into 2024? Because it is sort of, I guess, that's what you're guiding to, but just a little bit more granularity there. Thank you. Sure.
Vimal Kapur:
Sure, Andrew. So 2023 revenue is 1% growth. It's primarily driven by equipment revenue we had in the prior year. We had large equipment-based projects in our volume, LNG projects. So on a year-on-year comp basis, don't repeat itself. But if you see the core UOP business on catalysts, it remains pretty strong. Your specific question on sustainability technologies, as we mentioned during our earnings earlier, remain very confident on its performance. We crossed the benchmark of 50 licenses of sustainable aviation fuel just a few weeks back. Now we are seeing activity in carbon capture projects, early innings on hydrogen projects. So our plans to have sustainable technology business of $1 billion in next few years haven't changed. And my confidence of that absolutely has only grown higher over the last few months.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, and I would also just zoom out. I mean, we talk about some of the variability in this business, and PMT has always got some of the highest variability with UOP being a big part of that. Keep in mind, we grew sales in UOP for the year, something like 8%. Very, very healthy. And we've also grown orders somewhere in that same neighborhood, I think 2% for the year, but with 13% in the catalyst business. So we've come off some big comps with the large LNG projects. Overall, this is a very healthy business with a very healthy backlog. So -- and as you said, the STS business provides a really nice catalyst on that new aspect of it, but we feel very good about where UOP is at this stage.
Andrew Obin:
Excellent, and just to follow up on advanced materials. I guess same question, the business has returned to growth, just what are you seeing, maybe in a little bit more detail, driving positive outlook for 2024. I think [indiscernible] is constructive there as well. And maybe you can throw in a lot of questions on semis. I guess that's part of it as well, just if you expand on that. Thank you.
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Yes, we do see recovery in semis modestly increasing. Every month is becoming modestly better. So that's part of our forecast for 2024. We also saw in Q4 recovery in some segments of chemicals in short cycle. And we expect that to roll over in 2024. So the short cycle recovery on a broader Honeywell portfolio is not a one event. So it's going to happen in different portions. So chemicals happened late Q4 and we expect that to continue. So all-in-all, advanced material should have a better year in 2024 compared to what we had in 2023.
Andrew Obin:
Thanks so much.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the question. And Vimal, congrats on the Chairman role. There's lots of modern questions, so here's a few more. Well, a couple more. Pricing, I'm not sure if you've caught up price, but maybe if you just talk about what you've [indiscernible] pricing in your revenue bill. But it seems that we're entering the year with two of the segments down pretty heavily. Maybe just talk about how you see that break back to growth for IA and ESS. Is that in the second quarter, is it more second half loaded? And perhaps maybe talk about what you've seeing in the order rates to maybe support the view that we are at the bottom in some of these markets?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So for IA and ESS, I would say, IA broadly, as we said, will be flatish on a year-on-year basis. The strength we see there is in Process Solutions, in particular, that -- it had a strong 2023, we expect another strong 2024 from Process Solutions. Rest of IA is a short-cycle recovery. We saw pockets of that happening in Q4 in our scanning and mobility business. Now other portions have to also recover during course of the year. I talked about our warehouse automation business and how we expect that to perform during course of the year, specifically on the margin side. So that's definitely is part of our forecast. On ESS, we briefly talked an earlier question. UOP is carrying a pretty strong booking and backlog. So we expect a good year from UOP in 2024. And then I talked about advanced materials a bit earlier there. On orders rate, the Q4 orders were up 1%, which helped us to further bolster our backlog now to record high level. Specifically on orders, there were highlights on short cycles, early green shoots in building products, in scanning and mobility business, in parts of chemicals business, which is a good sign, because if couple have shown, I remain confident this will grow more broadly across our portfolio. Long cycle strong bookings in commercial aerospace, in UOP, in process solutions. There were some lumpy lessened orders in warehouse automation and defense and space, which I talked earlier. So net-net, our long cycle orders performed extremely well on an annualized basis in 2023. And short cycle is showing early cycle of recovery, which gives me confidence for 2024.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, maybe just in the last point on pricing, we talked about 4% for 2023. That's exactly where it came in. And the more balanced view of price versus volume in our model for 2024 is really 3% pricing. And that's going to be, to Vimal's point, I think price cost neutral to maybe slightly positive for the year. So we feel very good about our ability to deliver on that. We've talked about that at length in the past. I think our capabilities in that area have been very strong and we continue to be confident going into next year.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, that's helpful, Greg. And quick follow up on the cash flow. Nice to see the pick-up year-to-year. I'm guessing the tax benefits, potential tax benefits from R&D kind of rollback. I'm assuming that's not in your guide, but just curious, if that does pass the Senate, what kind of benefit you might see for 2024 for cash flow?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. Well, first of all, it's not nearly home, as I'm sure you can appreciate. So we're not sitting here counting any chickens. To be honest, Nigel, I think we need to wait and see exactly how all the rules, first whether it happens and how they set the rules. As you can appreciate, all the specifics matter a lot in this area. So no, we're not guiding anything special about that. We'll wait and see exactly what happens and then interpret that and integrate it into our view when it becomes a real thing.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. That's great, thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning, guys, and thank you.
Vimal Kapur:
Hey, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Maybe I'll start off with aerospace, if that's okay. You talked about it growing low double digits. How do we think about the OE growth there? What build rates are you embedding into that on the commercial aerospace side and any color you could give on aftermarket and defense growth?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So Sheila, we expect the overall low double-digit guide includes the continued high growth rate of OE, as we saw in 2023. That will repeat itself in 2024. Also expect double-digit growth in aftermarket. Defense, we perform at low single to mid-single digit in 2023, the supply chain constraint remains the biggest handle there. And as we make progress, we expect it to perform in that range in 2024 also. But the biggest unlock for us is supply chain. We have demonstrated a strong performance in 2023. We expect a good start of the year and we'll unpack the year as the things progress.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, so to be clear, I mean, no new signals from the OEs. They're continuing to place the same level of demand on us that they have been. And so, that's what we're committed to try to deliver.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Okay, great. And then if I could ask 1 more. You've been asked every angle in terms of revenue growth acceleration. Outside of [indiscernible], what do you need to see in the other three segments to hit the high end of guidance? Is it just all based on short cycle recovery and the timing of that, or is it some additional price capture? If you could maybe talk about that.
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. The biggest variable is the short cycle recovery and the pace of it, which remains variable. I mean, you look at 2024 setup for Honeywell in three buckets. Our backlog is up 8% and we convert backlog at a pretty predictable rate. So that's something which is highly deterministic. Number two, the self-help actions we are driving to drive growth. The self-help action includes price, that includes new products. I talked about high-growth regions, aftermarket services. All that is going to help us to drive growth regardless of the market. And then the third variable is short cycle. If it returns quicker, we'll have an upper end of the growth or we can beat it if it surprises everybody and vice versa. If they doesn't perform well during the course of the year, then we are at the lower end of the guide.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citi. Your line is now open.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Good morning, everyone.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Vilma, I just wanted to follow up on a commentary that you're on track to exceed the $25 billion of capital deployment guidance from 2023-2025. Obviously, you announced the Carrier deal, but does that commentary suggest continued more aggressive capital deployment? Does your M&A pipeline support that? And then could you update us on the progress in divesting the 10% of the sales you talked about previously?
Vimal Kapur:
Yep. So I would say that our capital deployment strategy would be balanced, which maximizes shareholder return. That's what we're really targeting for. It will be the balance, as Greg mentioned earlier, we expect both M&A and share repurchases to be part of that element for 2024 and years to come. The pipeline is adequate at this point of time and activity remains strong. So we are constantly looking at the deals which work in our algorithm. It has to be bolt-on. It has to help to drive our overall organic growth and generally meet our financial algorithm which we have earlier talked about. On the part of the portfolio, which doesn't fit in well, we are going to drive action starting 2024. Of course, we are not going to rush through that, because we need to capture shareholder value, but you can anticipate some initial actions on that during 2024.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, maybe just to put numbers on Andy. As we showed in that slide, we've been doing $8-ish billion per year. The simple math for 2024 says just with Carrier, that number is 10 going in with just enough share repurchase to buy back the creep. So we're going to be sitting at 18 through two years towards the 25 plus number. So the high confidence that we're going to be above that level just with the math.
Andy Kaplowitz:
And then just a quick follow up. You managed to grow Aero margin by 20 base points in Q4, even with [OE mix] (ph) being against you. And you talked about supply chain improving in 2024. I know you're saying it'll marginally stay in a tight range, but if the supply chain does continue to improve, is there an opportunity there with all of your productivity projects in that segment?
Vimal Kapur:
Look, I mean, there are -- there is a volume growth there, which will continue and the volume leverage gets offset by the OE mix, which I talked earlier, the OE mix remains strong. But we are also ending investing into aerospace. The volume growth is not coming accidentally. We have invested into our supply chain operations, supplier recovery, which is demonstrating the continuous volume growth occurred in 2023 and 2024. So when you put those facts together, that really drives the margin forecast for Aero at this point.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Helpful, guys.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is now open.
Peter Arment:
Thanks. Good morning, Vimal and Greg. Greg, just a quick one. You mentioned in just kind of the legacy segment SPS, you were talking about warehouse, the pipeline of kind of in the projects business, that there was some signs and there was some -- at least some improvement there. Maybe if you just give us a little color there just because it's -- obviously it's been a -- that that particular area has had a big downturn here.
Vimal Kapur:
Yes, I can start there and Greg can join. Look the pipeline, if I compare simple facts, our pipeline in Jan of 2024 compared to Jan of 2023 for warehouse automation projects, it's up nearly 30%. So what it tells us is that, the basic value proposition and the long-term trend of warehouse automation are intact. But customers willingness to invest in this very tight market or uncertain market is what is holding them back for making capital decisions. So we remain absolutely convicted on this business and the foundational actions we have taken on continue to grow our aftermarket, they are really paying off. I mean, our aftermarket businesses crossed $0.5 billion mark in 2023. We expect double digit growth in aftermarket in 2024. And you can expect the business almost cupping a half project and half aftermarket in this year. So as the market confidence returns, we'll see the growth back, and that's supported by the pipeline we have and activity in the market.
Peter Arment:
Very helpful color. Thanks. I'll leave it at one.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Maybe circling back to Nigel's question on pricing, the three points that's embedded into your expectations, is that disproportionately coming from Aero? Or how do I just kind of think about pricing across the segments?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So, Aero is probably on the mid to lower end of that, just given all the contract nature of their business and the other businesses, the other three segments are going to be a bit higher than that overall. So that's really, without being too specific, that's sort of directionally or notionally, I just think about it.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Great. Thanks, Greg. And then the quick follow up to circling, I'm trying to square the commentary on HBT and the destocking that you're seeing in the products business. With -- obviously, you're excited about the security acquisition and the growth profile of that business appears to be different. I'm just trying to square those comments and maybe you can kind of help me with what you're seeing within your own security business today.
Vimal Kapur:
No, as I mentioned before, we expect the front end of the year growth to be more driven by solutions side of the business. We are carrying forward meaningful backlog, both in projects and services. And as the year progresses, we expect short cycle recovery to be the key factor for growth as the year passes along. And net-net, we expect low single digit growth in building technologies, but strong margin expansion. Our commercial excellence actions are in place and we remain confident that we're going to have a meaningful progress in the year, both on growth and margin expansion.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I mean, I would just say, Joe, zoom out for a minute. And we're coming towards the end of a three year period where, again, COVID, then followed by big supply chain constraints, followed by massive inflation. And that's why you hear everyone talking about what's going on in inventory stocks all over. And yes, as that thing normalizes, that's going to make things clear across many of our products businesses, including HBT. But more broadly, again, zooming out, we love the -- we love where this business is going, and also creating that sizable position in security with a very attractive asset that we're bringing on from Carrier. Yes, we're very excited about that opportunity because we think that's going to be accretive growth across the portfolio for us. So it's just a matter of, I would say, differentiating between the here and now and the medium to longer term with those comments.
Joe Ritchie:
Helpful. Thank you guys.
Operator:
Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to CEO, Vimal Kapur, for closing remarks.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you. I want to thank all our shareholders for your ongoing support and our Honeywell colleagues who continue to enable us to outperform in any environment. Our future is bright and we look forward to updating you on our progress as we execute on our commitments. Thank you very much for listening and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Sean Meakim:
Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapur; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website. From time to time, we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website. Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the third quarter, share our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2023 and provide some preliminary thoughts on 2024. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Vimal Kapur.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on Slide 2. First off, we are saddened by recent events in Middle East. We are deeply upset by the loss of innocent lives. Our number one priority continues to be safety and security of our employees and partners in the regions and responding to their immediate needs. Coming to the third quarter, it was another strong quarter [one] (ph) for Honeywell in which we delivered all of our financial commitments. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.27, $0.02 above the high end of our guidance range. That was up 1% year-over-year or up 7% excluding a $0.14 non-cash pension headwind. Disciplined execution of our rigorous operating principles in the face of ongoing macroeconomic challenges continues to serve us and our stakeholders well. Third quarter sales were up 2% year-over-year, driven by double-digit growth in our commercial aviation, defense and space, and process solutions. Our Aerospace business continues to be a bright spot in our portfolio, driving meaningful commercial success. Our already robust backlog grew to a new record of $31.4 billion in third quarter, up 8% year-over-year and 3% sequentially due to strength in Aero and other long-cycle businesses. Orders grew double digit in the quarter due to tremendous demand generation in Aero where orders were up 30% year-over-year. Honeywell Building Technologies, and Safety and Productivity Solution ended the quarter with flat year-over-year orders with book-to-bill up around 1, an indication that we are seeing a short cycle end market beginning to stabilize. Intelligrated was another positive indicator in the third quarter as we converted on our robust pipeline to drive double-digit year-over-year orders growth and over 50% sequential orders growth. PMT was down mid-single digits on unfavorable comparisons to last year's peak in advanced materials orders. Our segment margin expanded 80 basis points year-over-year, achieving the high end of our guidance range, led by HBT up 110 basis points. We continue to see business mix improvement due to strong growth in our higher-margin Aerospace business as well as ongoing gains from productivity. Free cash flow was $1.6 billion in third quarter with over 100% cash conversion and 17% free cash flow margin, in line with our expectations. Greg will walk you through the free cash flow drivers in more details in few minutes. We remain committed to our capital deployment strategy and we put our robust balance sheet to work in the third quarter by deploying $2 billion through dividends, M&A, growth CapEx and share repurchases. We bought back 5.3 million shares in the quarter, reducing our weighted average share count to 667 million, a step-up due to highly attractive valuation and our ongoing confidence in Honeywell's performance. We remain on track with our commitment to deploy capital to high-return categories and generate compelling value for Honeywell shareholders. As always, we continue to execute on our proven value creation framework, effectively managing through ongoing external difficulties and delivering on our commitments. Looking forward, our consistent adherence to our rigorous operating principles underpinned by our Accelerator operating system, continued strength in our long-cycle end markets, and our technologically differentiated portfolio of solution, should provide investors with comfort that we will remain highly resilient, perform in all economic cycles and drive shareholder value for years to come. Next, let's turn to Slide 3 to review some of our exciting recent wins. Before I hand it off to Greg, let me briefly highlight some recent announcement that demonstrate our innovation across our portfolio. In Aero, we recently won a key new customer in the air transport space that will increase our APU and avionics installed base on roughly 200 new aircraft over the next five years. This win helps demonstrate the strength in our Aerospace portfolio regardless of the market conditions. In energy space, we announced a partnership with SK E&S to deploy our UOP carbon capture technology at a natural gas power plant in Korea. Our technology will help enable the capture of greater than 95% of the carbon dioxide produced in the plant. We remain excited about the win rates across our sustainable technology solution business as we help pave the way for the world's great energy transition. Finally, our Forge for Building software was recently implemented in One Bangkok, the city's largest integrated district. This partnership with Frasers and TCC Technologies will foster and expanding adoption of our software offerings across business sectors as we support the achievement of sustainability goals. Our core focus as a company continues to be on aerospace, sustainability and automation. Our recent wins are closely aligned to these initiatives and are proof that we continue to drive innovation across our portfolio, did not only see profitable market outcomes, but also position Honeywell to address the world's toughest challenges. Now, let me turn it over to Greg on Slide 4 to discuss our third quarter results in more detail as well as provide our views on guidance.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Vimal, and good morning, everyone. As Vimal outlined, we delivered another strong quarter in a dynamic macro environment. Third quarter sales grew 2% organically, led by double-digit organic sales growth in commercial aviation, defense and space, and process solutions. Commercial success in aerospace, which drove 18% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, was once again a bright spot for Honeywell. Our short-cycle businesses continued to show signs of stabilizing sequentially. Encouraging fundamentals persist across most of [PMT's] (ph) end markets, which led to another quarter of 3% year-over-year growth despite more challenging comps as we entered the second half. As expected, our long-cycle warehouse automation business remains around trough levels, which led to overall volume decline of 1% for the quarter. However, excluding SPS, volumes were up 6% across the portfolio. Our backlog remains at a record level, ending the third quarter at $31.4 billion, up 8% year-over-year, driven by double-digit orders growth across our long-cycle businesses. Sequential improvements in supply chain constraints led to past due backlog reductions in our short-cycle businesses, while demand continues to outpace output in Aero, a bullish signal of the underlying robustness of that business. An improving cost position and favorable business mix due to significant growth in our high-margin Aerospace business, among others, enabled us to expand segment margins by 80 basis points year-over-year to 22.6% and achieve the high end of our guidance. On cash, we generated $1.6 billion of free cash flow, down 18% year-over-year, due to the timing of cash tax payments and higher net working capital as strong Aerospace sales performance drove up our receivables balances year-over-year, so we improved collections on our past due balances. Throughout this quarter, we accelerated our share buyback program, more than doubling the amount of shares repurchased compared to the second quarter. We feel great about the future of Honeywell and believe in our next leg of transformation and we'll continue to opportunistically buy Honeywell shares at attractive valuations. Now, let's spend a few minutes on the third quarter performance by business. Aerospace sales for the third quarter were up 18% organically with double-digit growth in both commercial aviation and defense and space, the strongest growth quarter for Aero in over a decade. Commercial aviation growth was led by strength in the air transport aftermarket where increased flight activity globally continues to drive demand. Commercial original equipment also grew in the quarter on increased deliveries to both business and general aviation and air transport customers. Defense and space sales inflected in 3Q, growing 18% organically, and orders grew over 30% year-over-year for the second consecutive quarter as we see the impact of increased global focus on national security come through. While the aerospace supply chain remains constrained, we are continuing to see modest sequential improvements, which enabled us to increase our output and convert our record backlog into sales growth. For example, this was the third consecutive quarter with a 20% year-over-year increase in original equipment and spare shipments. While these gains in output are encouraging and leading to sales acceleration, demand continues to outpace supply. This is evidenced by our Aerospace book-to-bill of around 1.3 in the third quarter. Segment margins in Aero were flat year-over-year as increased volume leverage and commercial excellence offset cost inflation and mixed pressure in our original equipment, as expected. Performance Materials and Technologies sales grew 3% organically in the third quarter, led by HPS, which saw double-digit growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. Process solutions sales grew 11% organically, driven by continued strength in our projects business and lifecycle solutions and services. In UOP, sales grew 6% organically, led by gas processing solutions and petrochemical catalyst shipments. We continue to see robust demand in our sustainable technology solutions business within UOP as orders grew triple digits for the third consecutive quarter and sales grew at strong double-digit rates. In advanced materials, sales decreased 8% organically, driven primarily due to the continued expected macro-driven softness in our electronics, chemicals, and life science businesses and challenging year-over-year comps. Sequentially, segment margins expanded 40 basis points, while on a year-on-year basis, segment margins contracted 50 basis points to 22.1% as a result of lower volumes in advanced materials. Safety and Productivity Solutions sales decreased 25% organically in the quarter, primarily driven by lower volumes in warehouse and workflow solutions and productivity solutions and services. The project's portion of our Intelligrated business is around trough levels in the current low-investment warehouse automation environment, but our pipeline remains robust, and successful execution of our sales strategies resulted in double-digit year-over-year growth and over 50% sequential growth in orders in the third quarter. Additionally, the aftermarket services portion of the business continues to deliver solid double-digit sales growth. In productivity solutions and services, we are working through the effects of distributor de-stocking, but believe we are nearing the end of that cycle. Sensing and safety technologies was also impacted by short-cycle softness, but this business continues to remain relatively resilient. Segment margin in SPS contracted 120 basis points to 14.5% as a result of volume de-leverage, partially offset by our continued operational improvements and commercial excellence. Turning to Honeywell Building Technologies, sales were flat year-over-year in the quarter. Our long-cycle building solutions business continues to outpace our short-cycle building products. Building solutions grew 4% organically, led by high-single-digit growth in building projects, driven by strong execution, particularly in energy projects. Orders for building projects were also substantial in the quarter, up nearly 20% year-over-year, and resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.2. On the product side, sales decreased modestly as a result of relatively soft demand for security products. Segment profit remained a bright spot for the business, continuing to grow as a result of productivity actions and commercial excellence. All in, HBT's segment margin expanded 110 basis points to 25.2%. Growth across the portfolio continues to be supported by accretive results in Honeywell Connected Enterprise, providing further evidence of Honeywell's strong software franchise across our businesses. Overall, organic growth of approximately 20% in the third quarter was supported by strength in connected industrial, connected buildings, cyber security, and connected aircraft. Orders growth above 20% in the quarter remains a powerful indicator of the continued robust demand for HCE offerings. In October, we held the latest installment of Honeywell Connect, where we conducted 29 technology demonstrations to a group of 200 customers. We launched three new products, featured several product enhancements, and showcased advanced intelligence solutions using AI and generative AI technology. One highlight from the event was the introduction of a suite of cybersecurity solutions, including Honeywell Forge Cybersecurity Plus, Cyber Insights, and Cyber Watch, supported by the acquisition of SCADAfence in August, leading to new sales opportunities in as early as the fourth quarter. Overall, this was a great result for Honeywell. Our operational execution enabled us to grow third quarter earnings per share to $2.27, up 1% year-over-year on an adjusted basis. Segment profit drove $0.15 of improvement in earnings per share, the main driver of our EPS growth. Excluding the $0.14 pension headwind, EPS was $2.41, up 7% year-over-year. A bridge for adjusted EPS from 3Q '22 to 3Q '23 can be found in the appendix of this presentation with all the details. Finally, as Vimal mentioned earlier, we continue to leverage our healthy balance sheet, deploying $2 billion in the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $5.7 billion as we execute on our capital deployment strategy. So, overall, Honeywell's operating playbook continues to deliver strong results, and our best-in-class Honeywell value creation framework will enable us to drive compelling growth in earnings and cash for quarters to come. Now, let's turn to Slide 5 to discuss our fourth quarter and full year guidance. At this stage in the year and given the incrementally more challenging macro backdrop with geopolitics and interest rate dynamics, we're narrowing our full year guidance ranges for sales and EPS while increasing the midpoints of our segment margin expectations. Our demand profile remains healthy with record backlog and favorable orders performance. While we continue to monitor the timing of short-cycle recovery, we are confident in our ability to deliver on our commitments. For the fourth quarter, we anticipate sales to be between $9.6 billion and $9.9 billion, up 3% to 7% organically, driven by continued strength in commercial aviation, defense and space, process solutions, and UOP. We anticipate organic sales growth in Aero, PMT, and HBT in the fourth quarter. For the full year, we're raising the low end of our previous sales guidance by $100 million and lowering the high end by $200 million for a new range of $36.8 billion to $37.1 billion, representing 4% to 5% organic growth for the year. This reflects continued solid execution in our long-cycle business, while we awaited demand acceleration in some of our short-cycle businesses. Turning to segment margin, we anticipate the fourth quarter to be between 22.9% and 23.2%, flat to up 30 basis points year-over-year and up sequentially as we continue to benefit from improving business mix and our productivity actions. For the full year, we are also raising the low end of our segment margin guidance by 10 basis points for a new range of 22.5% to 22.6%, representing 80 to 90 basis points of year-over-year expansion. This improvement is driven by HBT, SPS, and PMT, which are all expected to expand margin. Now, let me walk you through the expectations for each segment in a little bit more detail. Looking ahead for Aerospace, we're very pleased with the continued improvements in the aero supply chain that are allowing us to capitalize on our record backlog. In 4Q, we anticipate another quarter of strong sales growth, both year-over-year and sequentially, in commercial aviation and defense and space. In commercial aviation, we expect most of the sequential growth to come through increased original equipment volumes, though commercial aftermarket will also deliver healthy year-over-year growth with demand driven by continued improvement in air transport flight hours. In defense and space, we are coming off back-to-back quarters of 30%-plus orders growth, which has bolstered our already sizable backlog. And we see another quarter of double-digit growth to end the year. With our growth momentum from the third quarter tearing over into 4Q, we now expect Aerospace sales to be up mid-teens for the year. With much of the incremental sales in this upgrade coming from increased original equipment shipments, as we capture a greater installed base, we expect Aero margins to be flat to modestly down for the year. In Performance Materials and Technologies, our strong execution and the encouraging outlook in our end markets will continue to drive favorable growth. For the fourth quarter, we expect our typical solid finish to the year, leading to year-over-year and sequential sales growth. Growth will be led by process solutions on strength in projects and aftermarket services. In UOP, our growth outlook is supported by robust demand for petrochemical and refining catalysts. The sustainability technology solutions business will continue to grow as we capitalize on legislation-backed demand. For advanced materials, we expect continued demand for fluorine products, a rebound in life sciences end markets, and an improvement in our electronics and chemicals business, supportive of sequential growth. For the full year, we continue to expect high-single-digit sales growth in PMT. Due to typical catalyst seasonality, we still expect meaningful sequential and year-over-year margin expansion in the fourth quarter, resulting in modest segment margin expansion for the year for PMT. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, our outlook continues to be impacted by the current low levels of investment in new warehouse capacity and distributor destocking. However, the impact on our financials is declining, creating stabilization and signs of potential return to growth in the coming quarters. For the fourth quarter, we expect these effects to lead to sales that are roughly flat sequentially, down organically, but to a lesser degree than earlier in the year. Orders will grow sequentially and year-over-year in the fourth quarter as we build on momentum from this quarter. While new warehouse investment remains challenged, customers continue to upgrade their existing infrastructure, which will lead to another quarter of double-digit growth for the aftermarket services portion of our Intelligrated business. For the full year, we now expect sales to be down approximately 20% as the SPS portfolio bounces along the bottom of the cycle. However, the productivity actions and operational improvements we have made this year will still enable us to expand margins solidly for the year. In Building Technologies, we were prudent with our posture at the start of the year as we faced unprecedented central bank tightening cycle and uncertain demand environment. While the operating backdrop remains difficult, we are encouraged by the sequential orders progression we saw each month throughout 3Q, including double-digit products orders growth in the month of September. For the fourth quarter, we expect modest sequential sales improvement from our 2Q and 3Q levels, with growth continuing to be led by our long-cycle building solutions business. The supply chain is improving each quarter, and we expect to make further progress on converting our past due backlog into sales. We're also encouraged by the resiliency we are seeing in verticals such as airports, government, and education, and expect institutional demand to provide support amid commercial softness. We project HBT sales to be up low-single digits for the year, with commercial and operational excellence enabling HBT to be our largest margin expander in 2023. Now, moving on to our other key guidance metrics. We anticipate net below the line impact to be between negative $105 million to negative $155 million in the fourth quarter, and between negative $525 million and negative $575 million for the full year. This guidance includes a range of repositioning between $45 million and $85 million in the fourth quarter and between $260 million and $300 million for the full year as we continue to invest in high-return projects to support our future growth and productivity. We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be around 19% in the fourth quarter and around 21% for the full year, unchanged from our previous guidance. We anticipate average share count to be around 664 million shares in the fourth quarter and around 669 million shares for the full year as we continue to reduce our share count through opportunistic buybacks. As a result of these inputs, we anticipate adjusted earnings per share to be between $2.53 and $2.63 for the fourth quarter, flat to up 4% year-over-year. Excluding pension headwinds, fourth quarter EPS growth would be up 6% to 10%. For the full year, we're nearing both ends of our EPS guidance ranges by $0.05 for a new range of $9.10 to $9.20, up 4% to 5% year-over-year, holding the midpoint of our prior guide. Excluding pension headwinds, EPS growth would be up 10% to 11% for the year. On cash, we continue to expect to meet our original free cash flow guidance of $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion in 2023, or $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion excluding the net impact of settlements, driven by stronger collections and inventory management. Higher cash tax outlays in the third quarter will be offset by more favorable cash outlook in the fourth quarter giving us confidence in our full year guidance. So, to summarize, we're narrowing our full year guidance ranges for sales and EPS while raising the midpoint of our segment margin expectations based on our confidence and the ability to successfully deliver results in a fluid operating environment. Before turning back to Vimal, let's turn to the next page and discuss our preliminary thoughts for 2024. While next year's environment is shaping up to be just as volatile as the last few years, our proven track record of navigating an uncertain macro backdrop should give investors confidence in our ability to execute on our commitments. We have a unique set of operating principles that enable us to move quickly and decisively to drive growth, protect margins, ensure liquidity, and position ourselves well to deliver in any environment. Our end market exposures remain favorable into 2024, particularly in aerospace and energy. We expect continued commercial aviation fleet growth and replenishment, increased domestic and international defense investment amid geopolitical uncertainty, heightened focus on automation due to labor scarcity, increased energy demands and intensifying decarbonization goals, accelerating the need for technologies enabling the energy transition and increased infrastructure spending. All of these compelling vertical tailwinds as well as ongoing customer demand to help enable digitalization give us confidence that all four of our reconstituted businesses will deliver growth next year. The timing of an eventual recovery in short cycle is less certain and will be a swing variable to our sales outcome. We have a strong setup that will drive growth in sales, margin, and earnings in 2024 within our long-term financial framework. We expect organic growth to be led by our long-cycle businesses due to record-level demand and backlog in 2023. Additionally, our focus on new product innovation is yielding benefits. We believe extending our success in delivering new solutions to our existing vast installed base, as well as the commercial efforts driving greater penetration of our current set of technologies to new markets to help enable robust organic growth. That, coupled with our ongoing leadership in high-growth regions and the strength of our software franchise, gives us confidence in the top-line. We also expect supply chains to continue to improve gradually in Aero throughout next year. For overall Honeywell, 2024 margins will benefit from improving business mix, continued benefits from price costs, and productivity actions, including our precision focus on reducing raw material costs as well as implementing AI into our development and production. We will continue our investments in R&D and growth-oriented capital expenditures and remain keenly focused on creating uniquely innovative, differentiated, recession-proof technologies to address the world's toughest automation, digitalization, and sustainability challenges. While we expect our spend on repositioning to be relatively stable year-over-year in '24, we also anticipate modestly higher interest expense and lower pension income next year, both driven by the acceleration in yields across the bond markets we have seen since this summer. That will lead to slightly higher net below the line expense. We will provide more information about the year-over-year magnitude of these changes at year-end when we snap the line on pension, but we anticipate there'll be more in line with normal historical changes, not last year's outsized impacts. As a reminder, pension income is a non-cash item, given our overfunded pension status, and will ensure no incremental contributions are needed. This is a great position to be in for our employees, both former and current, and our shareowners. We expect our cash to grow in line or above earnings next year with improvement assisted by the absence of the one-time settlement from de-risking our balance sheet earlier this year, which had an outsized effect on our cash performance. We're also embarking on a multi-year unwind of the last two years of working capital buildup. We will continue benefiting from improved demand planning and optimized production and materials management using our enhanced end-to-end process and digitalization capabilities through Accelerator. We see several compelling growth capital opportunities and expect to fund high-return projects through disciplined CapEx spending in the coming years. Our balance sheet strength will continue to give us meaningful capacity for M&A, and we expect an ongoing favorable deal environment going into 2024, which supports our intention to accelerate capital deployment. Now, I'm going to pass the call over to Vimal to say a few words about the announcement we made earlier this month on our portfolio and strategic priorities. Over to you, Vimal.
Vimal Kapur:
Thanks, Greg. Two weeks ago, we announced a portfolio reorganization that aligns our business with distinct, compelling mega trends that are shaping the future of our industries and our planet. These are automation, the future of aviation, and energy transition, and all are underpinned by our robust capability in digitalization. This realignment will enable us to have a simpler, clearer strategic focus and clearly define Honeywell's value proposition for our customers, investors and employees. We are an automation, aerospace and sustainability-focused technology company. We believe this change will empower our business leaders to better prioritize R&D efforts, capital expenditures, M&A pipeline, go-to-market strategies, and more. It will also create a more focused framework for M&A, allowing us to pursue bolt-on acquisitions and select disposition that aligns to our themes and enhance our portfolio. Overall, we have demonstrated the ability to operate under dynamic circumstances, including a global pandemic, large-scale supply chain disruption, heightened inflation, international trade disputes, unprecedented central bank tightening, and geopolitical tensions. Underpinned by the strength of our differentiated Accelerator operating system, we are confident that we can deliver strong financial performance in 2024. We will provide more specific inputs in our annual outlook call once we close out the year. Now, let's turn onto the Slide 7 and I will close with some long-term comments. Let's take a minute to zoom out from the quarterly result. As a reminder, my priorities as CEO are
Sean Meakim:
Vimal and Greg are now available to answer your questions. We ask that you please be mindful of others in the queue by only asking one question. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell of Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Maybe just wanted to start off with a question on the fourth quarter margin outlook. So, I think you're looking at about 40 bps of margin uplift sequentially, 30% operating leverage sequentially. It looks like PMT perhaps is the segment where you're expecting a very big margin uplift. So, just wondered if you could go into a little bit more detail around that. The margins have been down year-on-year, all year there. So, just maybe help us understand what's really changing a lot in the fourth quarter to get that moving. And then just as a very quick follow-up, HBT, cross-currents this year. You've got a low base as we think about '24, but the interest rate environment is negative. So, just confidence in HBT's growth ability looking out? Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Hey, Julian. So, I'll take the first one and I'll pitch it to Vimal for number two. So overall, we've had a great year in margin expansion for Honeywell. And again, we're looking to finish the year at the high end of our guidance range, as you've seen. So, I think we've continued to demonstrate our ability to drive margin expansion in any environment. And as we look into Q4, as you said, we see a nice sequential improvement from Q3 to Q4 and some healthy margin expansion there as well. In PMT, we talk about it often, the margin tends to be somewhat lumpy from any one quarter to the next. A big part of that, of course, is where catalyst shipments wind up during the course of the year and which end market. And so, as we go into Q4, for PMT, we have a pretty healthy UOP mix for sure. And we're seeing also some recovery from some of the challenges that we've had earlier in the year with operations in AM. So, that's really the underlying theme for Q4. But we think the teams have done a great job and PMT is on track also to have a very nice year overall with high-single-digit top-line growth and some modest margin expansion. So, we're pretty pleased with where we are going with that. And maybe, Vimal, I'll hand it to you on the HBT one.
Vimal Kapur:
So, Julian, on HBT, I would say, I'll spend a minute to kind of first go back to what our business model is before I kind of answer your question. I think there are three parts of our HBT business model. First, it is 60% product, 40% solution. And within 40% solution, more than half is aftermarket. So, by very mix, it's a short-cycle oriented business. The second point is the products we have, they are critical to the buildings and that's why they are higher margin. And that explains our constant margin improvement in the segment. And finally, our exposure in buildings is combination of real estate, but also infrastructure. And all that put together explains our results of 2022, where we grew double digits, and this year, we'll grow low-single digits. To your question of 2024, we remain confident HBT will grow per our guidance. Our backlog is growing in our solution business and, of course, the swing factor remains here the short-cycle position.
Julian Mitchell:
Great. Thank you.
Sean Meakim:
[Lateef] (ph), can we have the next question, please?
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys, good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Hey, Steve.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
So, some cross-currents here at SPS, I mean it's now down to like 10% of your profits. Things seem to be bottoming there, but does the timing of those shipments -- can that business grow next year, or should we kind of prepare for another down year there? Maybe if you could just like base out the expectations there for SPS?
Vimal Kapur:
Steve, you're right, SPS is coming out of the bullwhip effect of COVID and clearly that reflects in our Q3 numbers. But as we mentioned in our earlier conversation, the SPS orders in Q3, we had a book-to-bill of 1 and we see similar trends continuing in Q4, which means we are in a recovery cycle in this business moving forward, starting Q4, and we'll see that in 2024. Margin expansion will certainly help there, because the volumes growth will help in margin expansion. We have re-baselined our cost base, aligned to the new revenue scale. So overall, we should see recovery from this point onwards.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. So that's a growth business with some nice leverage next year is what you're saying?
Greg Lewis:
I think, Steve, overall top-line growth could be flattish next year, but as Vimal said, with particularly -- as the short-cycle accelerates, there's a lot of leverage in those short-cycle businesses, in particular. So, we absolutely will do that, expect to see that come through. And again, on the Intelligrated side, with the aftermarket growing far greater than the project business, we should see some nice mix in that business as well. So, the timing of that acceleration, as we've said, overall, still is something that we're waiting to see happen, but we've flattened out, bottomed out the orders rate, so it should be coming any time now. And when it does, a lot of leverage comes along with it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Davis of Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hey, good morning, guys, Vimal, Greg and Sean.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning, Scott.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Davis:
Hey, the world is kind of changing and volatile. China seems like it's taken another step down. But can you guys walk us around the world and what you're seeing from a geographic mixed perspective and just a little bit of color on how things maybe change through the quarter or into 4Q from that front as well? That'll be my question. I'll pass it on after that. Thanks.
Vimal Kapur:
Okay, thanks, Scott. I would say you're absolutely right, Scott, there is a lot of variation how things are working in the world at this point. Let me start with China. We are going to have high-single-digit growth in China this year. It's primarily supported by growth in Aero, but also in some other businesses, too. We see China to be a similar trend, mid-single digit to high-single digit in 2024. We have enough backlog and strength in Aero to support that. In other parts of the world, I would say, we see a lot of strength in Asia, in particular, India and ASEAN countries. And Middle East also, given our strong position in energy, positions us pretty well. And then, Europe and U.S., probably, we all see the impact of high interest rate and challenging environment. So, probably we are experiencing the same here. So, it's the good balance of positive and negative. But one thing I'd like to add there is, as we see our backlog, which grew by 8%, we also see good orders position forecasted for quarter four, it's going to position us pretty well for 2024 ahead in spite of the challenging condition, because we do expect our long-cycle businesses are going to help to drive in our -- the forecasted range of revenue growth for 2024.
Scott Davis:
Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research. Nigel Coe, your line is open. Please proceed.
Nigel Coe:
Yeah. Sorry about that. I had my mute button on. Sorry about that. Thanks for the question. So, Greg, I don't want to put kind of words to your mouth, but I think I heard -- do you see in 2024 as a sort of within the long-term framework of [47 basis points, 50 basis points] (ph) of OM? Is that sort of what you meant based on what you see today? My understand is there're a lot of macros out there. And if I could just clarify, the free cash flow growing in line with earnings, whatever that may be, should we add back the one-timers this year as the base and then grow from there? Because obviously, $1.2 billion is a big number. And any thoughts on the pension headwind would be help as well.
Greg Lewis:
Sure. Yes. So again, it's way too early for guidance. Of course, we'll do that specifically in 90 days or so when we announce our full year earnings. So the comments we've been giving is that we see things within that long-term framework. That's a reasonably good barometer for how we're seeing things at the moment. But again, 90 days from now, we'll know a lot more. In terms of the free cash flow, you're exactly right. We have $1.2 billion of settlements. That's obviously not going to happen again next year. So that's an immediate add back to the base. And then, from there, we expect to see free cash grow in line or maybe better with earnings. The maybe around that is really a matter of we expect to start seeing the liquidation of our working capital, but we also have a very robust set of growth projects on capital. And so, we're going to be going through our budgeting process here over the course of the fourth quarter, and we may have some good things to put forth from a CapEx standpoint next year. So -- but we feel really good about the progress that we're making in cash flow. Again, this quarter, very nice cash flow number, 100% conversion, 17% cash margin. So, we've made some nice progress. One other kind of good anecdotal point, we've started to see Aero bring their days of supply down in inventory. So, while the number in the aggregates gone up, they're obviously growing the business in the high teens, but we are starting to see the efficiency and inventory show up. So that's really how we're thinking about it at this stage for next year, but we'll know a lot more in 90 days and be a bit more precise. And then, on pension, could it be $50 million or $100 million worse. We'll see rates move around a lot, as you know. And as I mentioned in my comments, we snapped the line at the end of the year, but it's trending to be lower income next year, but obviously nowhere near the kind of shock that we had in the 2023 change.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Andrew.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
Yeah. Just a question on advanced materials. I think it was a little bit weaker than we expected. I think you said softness in electronics, chem and life science drove the declines. I think last quarter, you highlighted electronics and chemicals. Just I want to understand what the changes are, because I think before you were saying that electronic materials should improve in second half. Just -- right, I know it's a high-margin business, just what has changed? And how does the business look into year-end? And maybe what kind of momentum you have into next year? Thank you so much.
Vimal Kapur:
Yeah. Thanks, Andrew. Look, I would say, in AM, the fluorine products business, the [indiscernible] doing extremely well, continues to grow. As applications keeps growing, its geographic spread keeps growing. So that's very positive. Electronic materials have definitely bottomed out. We have seen signaling of recovery from the [Cree's] (ph) fab manufacturer. And part of that is seen in Q4. Not as good as we'd like it to see, but we are seeing signals of recovery in the electronics side. And there are parts of chemicals which are weak, which is affected in our overall revenue. And like any other short cycle, we expect it to recover aligned with economic conditions there. But I must say that our conviction in the business is very strong. We had outstanding years in 2021 and 2022. And this year should be seen in comps to the past two years.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thank you.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi. I wanted to ask about Aerospace please, and specifically, defense and space, great growth in the quarter, up 18%. What are you seeing from a bookings perspective there, the sustainability of demand with everything going on? And how does defense factor into Aero margin mix? Thank you.
Vimal Kapur:
Thanks, Sheila. I mean the -- I think our -- one of our -- headline of our Q3 has been Aero, and within Aero, the defense and space. Our bookings continue to be strong. Q3 was a strong booking quarter, so was Q2. And that's driven by not only the U.S. domestic bookings, but also international defense markets opening up. And we clearly see reflecting that in our booking rates. The revenue growth is driven by supply chain actions, which are now being seen in defense also. And we expect the continued growth in the defense segment in quarter four and 2024 ahead, too. So, punchline is that defense is going to become a contributing factor in the continued Aero growth, given the overall geopolitical conditions in the world.
Sean Meakim:
Sheila, this is Sean. On Aerospace margins, as it relates to defense and space, it's not a material drag on our margins. So that growth there is going to be not materially different than the overall margin rate. So, we find that to be -- that growth to be quite nice to segment profit growth.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague:
Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Good morning. Hey, not to get too tied up in arcane pension accounting, but did you guys change something in pension to mitigate the impact of interest rate changes? Certainly, nice to hear the headwind is that modest, but my rough math would have maybe suggested a bit more. And then, maybe just to add another part. Vimal, you touched on advanced materials a little bit in a previous answer. But can you give us a little bit of color on how you see the 410A, the 454B transition unfolding? What's happening to 410A prices and availability? And where you stand competitively as these OEMs are making the shift? Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
So, maybe I'll hit the pension one first. So no, Jeff, we haven't changed anything in our accounting. We'll do our normal mark-to-market in the fourth quarter as we've done for many years now. And again, what I mentioned $50 million to $100 million is a range. We'll see how the final numbers pan out with discount rates and returns on assets for the asset bases themselves. So, nothing different, and we'll give you a more precise answer after the turn of the year when we snap the line.
Vimal Kapur:
Jeff, on advanced material, I would say, pretty fascinating to see how this changeover is happening between Solstice 410A and 454. We are working with all key OEMs for several years. This is not a new dimension for us. We have been on it for last several years, and we see the switchover happening from 410 to 454 in the times ahead, and we have secured our position with the key OEMs. So, I would say, for us is I would call it like business as usual because this is something which is part of our business, and we were ahead of the game here to look ahead and think about it simplification on us, and we are well covered on that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase of Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.
Greg Lewis:
Hey, Nicole.
Vimal Kapur:
Nicole, good morning.
Nicole DeBlase:
Can we double click a little bit on what you guys are seeing with respect to channel inventory reductions within HBT and SPS? Where are we in that inventory destocking process? And do you think we will enter 2024 in a pretty clean position with respect to channel inventories?
Vimal Kapur:
Nicole, we have -- I would say, the channel inventory is reflected in our orders rate. Our orders rate for both buildings and SPS had a book-to-bill of 1 last quarter. And the similar trends are persisting so far in October, which tells me that we are on a path of a slight recovery. And that's an indirect measure for me on channels are looking at stocking back again from the cycle. So -- and we expect a short cycle to slightly recover progressively every month moving forward, but not as fast as we'd like it to be at this point.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray of RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Greg Lewis:
Hey, Deane.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning.
Deane Dray:
Hey. On HBT, you called out cost inflation headwinds. Could you size that? What kind of pricing actions have you taken? And then, on the verticals, airport, government and education, how has government stimulus, has that started to come through? And are you benefiting there? Thanks.
Greg Lewis:
Yeah. Hey, Deane, we don't disclose our individual segment's price/cost. But if you recall, I mean, we've mentioned that we're going to retain our price/cost positivity, and we've done that inside of HBT throughout the course of the year. So, you see the numbers for total Honeywell, I think we're within our zone that we had guided. From a pricing perspective, it's probably going to be 4% for the year across the total portfolio. Maybe I'll pass it to Vimal on the other side.
Vimal Kapur:
So, we do get, I would say, benefit of different government stimulus programs, the recent one being around, I would say, chipset, semiconductor activity in U.S. The proposal activity there is strong. And hopefully, we'll win enough to see the benefit of that in the times ahead. But I must also point that we also see heightened infrastructure activity outside the U.S., specifically in high-growth regions. One of the strength of HBT business is very strong footprint in high-growth regions, China, ASEAN, Middle East, India, et cetera. And there, the activity on infrastructure build-out is pretty strong, which is going to help us in building out our backlog, specifically in long cycle. So that's how we see those dimensions in the business.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Greg Lewis:
Hey, Joe.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Hey, guys. My one question is just on orders. So, nice to see the inflection versus what we -- what you had experienced last quarter. I think Aero is the only segment that grew last quarter. I didn't hear the commentary on PMT. So, if I missed it, my apologies. But what were orders like in PMT this quarter or maybe specifically for HPS and UOP?
Vimal Kapur:
Yeah. So, year-to-date, I would say, the orders rate in UOP and HPS are pretty strong, and we expect to finish very strongly for both the businesses in 2023 and carry forward good backlog for 2024. The wins are driven by multiple end markets in HPS. And UOP is certainly benefiting from strong demand of catalysts. But also now strong demand coming from sustainable technologies. Our sustainable technology business is growing at triple-digit rate as we had anticipated. And all that is really adding up for strong performance of UOP for 2023 orders.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz of Citigroup.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Andrew.
Greg Lewis:
Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
So, I know you're expecting a nice uptick in PMT margin in Q4, but as you've guided this year, it's tended -- PMT margins tended to be a bit muted for the year. So, maybe conviction level that it does jump in Q4? And then, I know you're moving HPS over, but pro forma, do you see PMT as one of the better margin performers in '24?
Greg Lewis:
So, in terms of conviction level, it's high. I mean, I feel pretty strongly about the PMT team's ability to perform here. Again, we're not at a place where we're giving guidance ranges for next year for any given segments. I expect the PMT business, as currently constructed, we expect accretion next year as well. But we're not going to get into any specific guidance ranges around that at this moment. But our conviction level is high. The team is delivering. They've taken all the right actions in each of the three businesses. And as we said, with a nice mix going into Q4 on catalysts, we expect to be able to deliver the margin accretion in Q4.
Operator:
Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Vimal Kapur for closing remarks.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you. Our value creation framework is working. While the macro economy remains challenging and the timing of a short-cycle acceleration is uncertain, we are deploying our rigorous operating playbook to navigate near-term volatility. We are confident in our ability to weather near-term challenges and meet our performance targets, underpinned by ongoing strength in our two biggest end markets, aerospace and energy, combined with the operating rigor you have expected from Honeywell. Thank you all, and our Honeywell colleagues, who continue to enable us to outperform in any environment and drive differentiated performance for our customers and shareholders. Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please, go ahead.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Liz. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapur; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis; and Senior Vice President and General Counsel Anne Madden. This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website. From time to time, we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website. Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and other businesses as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the second quarter, share our guidance for the third quarter and provide an update to our full year 2023 outlook. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to CEO, Vimal Kapur.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on slide two. The second quarter was another strong one for Honeywell. We met or exceeded our commitments as our rigorous operating principles enable us to navigate a challenging backdrop. We grew our adjusted earnings per share 6% year-over-year to $2.23 or up 13%, excluding a $0.15 non-cash pension headwind. Second quarter organic sales were up 3% year-over-year, led by double-digit growth in commercial Aerospace, Process Solutions and UOP. Our Aerospace business continues to perform at very high level. The second quarter backlog grew to a new record of $30.5 billion, up 4% year-over-year and 1% sequentially due to strength in Aero, PMT and HBT. Similar to last quarter, orders continue to grow double-digit organically in Aero, but other segment unfavorable comparison to last year's peak supply chain disruption led to a single-digit decline in orders for overall Honeywell. We remain confident in our 2023 outlook as recovering end markets and operational excellence continue to deliver the lean results despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Our segment margin expanded 150 basis points year-over-year, exceeding the high end of our guidance range by 20 basis points, led by expansion in SPS, HBT and Aero. Our continued focus on commercial excellence and greater gains from productivity enabled us to remain ahead of our inflation curve. Free cash flow was $1.1 billion in second quarter, up 34% year-over-year, driven by strong net income and improve working capital in-line with our expectations. Greg, will walk you through the free cash flow drivers in more details in few minutes. We deployed $2.1 billion to dividends, M&A, share repurchases and growth CapEx, including opportunistically repurchasing 2.4 million shares throughout the quarter, reducing our weighted average share count to 670 million. I'm pleased with the progress we made this quarter on our portfolio shaping priorities. We invested in multiple new technologies utilizing our robust M&A playbook including completing the acquisition of Compressor Controls Corporation for approximately $700 million. As always, we continue to execute on our proven value creation framework, which is underpinned by accelerator operating system. The operating system along with ongoing growth in our key end market technologically differentiated portfolio of solution is enabling us to navigate a challenging economic backdrop and deliver on our commitment again this quarter. Looking forward, I'm encouraged by the strength we are seeing in our long cycle Aero and energy verticals and remain confident in our position to outperform. Next, let's turn to slide three, to discuss the important leadership announcement. Last month, we announced that Jim Currier will be succeeding Mike Madsen as Honeywell Aerospace CEO. I want to congratulate Mike Madsen on his retirement and extend my sincere gratitude for 37 years he has given to Honeywell. Mike has been extremely effective leader and changed in our company and the Aero industry. He has a rich history of exceeding expectations as Aerospace on an unprecedented $35 billion in new business in these last two years. His leadership and commitment to customers, employees and the community is unparalleled. During his tenure as Aero CEO, Mike navigated the business to unprecedented pandemic disruptions, while growing the topline and expanding margins by over 200 basis points. Because of Mike's passion and dedication to the business, he helped set our Honeywell Aerospace to be even more successful in the years to come. We're excited about the next phase of growth in Honeywell's Aero business under Jim Currier’s leadership. We are fortunate to have someone with his level of experience and tenure ready to take the helm, a true testament to Honeywell's bench strength and focus on succession planning. Jim has been with Honeywell’s Aero for 17 years, and prior to his current position, he had held multiple roles of increasing responsibility across function and geography most recently as President of our Electronic Solutions business. The medium term set up for Aero is the strongest it has ever been. Flight hours continue to be strong, including wide-body upside, which is now underway. We have diverse and optimized platform exposure, particularly in business aviation. In fact over the last few months alone, we have won $3 billion in business to provide OEMs and airline with our engines, [indiscernible] (ph) and brakes, APUs, and flight management system along with associated aftermarket services. In addition, supply chains are gradually improving, and we have returned to growth in defense and space. This momentum points to a robust multiyear trajectory for the largest businesses in Honeywell portfolio. Let's turn to slide four, to us our recent [corporate] (ph) development activity. I'm excited about our recent capital deployment announcement closing on our previously announced Compressor Controls Corporation acquisition and adding to strategic assets that will drive enhanced innovation and strength our technology portfolio. This mix really exemplifies the type of deals that we look to generate on a consistent basis. Last month, we closed our acquisition of CCC, a leading provider of turbo machinery control and optimization solution deploying approximately $700 million in all cash transactions. CCC Technologies including control hardware, software and services bolster Honeywell's high growth sustainability and digitalization portfolio with new carbon capture control solution. CCC integrates seamlessly to our Process Solutions business and provides meaningful revenue synergy potential with Honeywell Forge. We are excited to extend Honeywell's leadership in automation and help customer accelerate the energy transition with the completion of this acquisition. We also acquired SCADAfence, an Israel based company that delivers operational technology or OT and Internet of Things or IoT cybersecurity solutions for monitoring large scale network. SCADAfence brings proven technologies in asset discovery, threat detection and security governance, which are key to industrial and critical infrastructure cybersecurity program into our [SCE] (ph) portfolio. The OT Cybersecurity industry is expected to grow to greater than $10 billion in next several years and the SCADAfence portfolio payer seamlessly with Honeywell's Cybersecurity business, providing an end-to-end enterprise solution that helps customers enhance enterprise resilience. In addition, we signed an agreement with Saab to acquire its heads-up-display or HUD asset, bolstering Honeywell's comprehensive end-to-end avionics and safety offering. We'll partner with Saab to develop and strengthen the HUD product line, which enables pilots, increase situational awareness, specifically at night or in difficult weather conditions. Importantly, the HUDs will be integrated into Honeywell Anthem, our revolutionary integrated flight deck with an intuitive user interface and highly scalable design, in addition to Honeywell's Primus Epic, flight deck and [Retrophage] (ph) solutions. I'm excited about our new technologies and the adjacency we have unlocked through our recent M&A activity. We said before and we have an active and robust pipeline, and this is further evidence that we are continuously enhancing our portfolio by investing in new opportunities. We look forward to continuing to deploy our capital in coming quarters to create more value for Honeywell's shareholders. Now let me turn it over to Greg, on slide five, to discuss second quarter results in more detail as well as provide our views on guidance.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Vimal, and good morning, everyone. We delivered another strong quarter in a very challenging operating environment. Second quarter sales grew 3% organically led by double-digit organic sales growth in commercial aerospace, process solution and UOP, where demand strength continues to support Honeywell's short-term and long-term outlook. PMT grew at a robust 7% pace after four consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. Our long cycle warehouse automation business is around trough levels as expected, which led to overall volume decline of 1% for the quarter. However, excluding SPS, volumes were up 5% across the remainder of the portfolio. Our backlog remains at a record level ending the second quarter at $30.5 billion, up 4% year-over-year driven by strength in Aero and PMT. Supply chain constraints continue to moderate our overall growth rate. However, we continue to record sequential improvements in Aero output as expected and are reducing our past due backlog across our short cycle businesses. Our investments in Honeywell’s Digital have continued to yield commercial and operating benefits through surgical pricing actions enabling us to expand segment margin by 150 basis points year-over-year to 22.4% and exceed the high-end of our guidance by 20 basis points. Three out of four segments expanded margins in the quarter each by more than 100 basis points with SPS leading the way as expected. On cash, we generated $1.1 billion of free cash flow, up 34% year-over-year. This increase was driven by stronger net income as well as improved working capital performance, with higher collections and good progress on inventory where we have improved our demand planning, and optimize our production and materials management, using our improved end-to-end process and digitalization capabilities. Now let's spend a few minutes on the second quarter performance by business. Aerospace sales for the second quarter were up 16% organically led by over 20% growth in Commercial Aviation. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit Aerospace organic sales growth and over two years of double-digit growth for Commercial Aviation, supported by strong recovery in both flight hours and higher shipset deliveries. Growth remained strongest in Commercial Aviation aftermarket, up over 25% led by over 30% growth in air transport as increased flight hours resulted in higher spare shipments and repaired overall activity. Commercial original equipment sales also increased double-digits driven by increased build rates. Defense and Space grew for the second consecutive quarter as we were able to execute on our strong backlog and increase our sales volumes. The Aero supply chain continued to make progressive improvements as better material availability enabled 20% year-over-year growth in original equipment and spare shipments again in Q2. Historically, high past-due backlog increased again in the quarter as orders growth outpaced our backlog burn down. Segment margin in Aerospace expanded a 120 basis points year-over-year to 27.7% due to commercial excellence and higher volume leverage partially offset by cost inflation. Performance Materials and Technology sales grew 7% organically in the second quarter with double-digit growth for the third consecutive quarter in both HPS and UOP. Process Solution sales grew 11% organically driven by strength in our projects business and in lifecycle solutions and services. In UOP, sales also grew 11% organically led by gas processing and refining catalyst shipments. Sustainable Technology Solutions within UOP had another standout quarter in Q2, with strong triple-digit orders growth and over 30% sales growth. In Advanced Materials, continued demand for fluorine products portfolio was offset by expected macro driven softness in our Electronics and Chemicals business, leading to flat organic growth despite challenging year-over-year comps. Segment margin contracted 60 basis points to 21.7% as favorable price cost was more than offset by challenges in Advanced Materials including lower volumes and the previously communicated disruption in one of our plants. Safety and Productivity Solutions sales decreased 21% organically in the quarter. Sales declines are primarily driven by warehouse and workflow solutions and productivity solutions and services. While the project portion of our Intelligrated business is around trough levels and the current low investment warehouse automation environment. The aftermarket services portion of the business continues to deliver solid double-digit growth. Sensing and Safety Technologies was flattish in the quarter, with ongoing strength in our industrial sensing product portfolio offset by modestly lower volumes in safety. Segment margin performance for SPS once again led Honeywell expanding 410 basis points to 16.7% as a result of productivity actions and commercial excellence partially offset by lower volume leverage and cost inflation. Honeywell Building Technology sales were flat year-over-year on an organic basis in the second quarter. Building Solutions sales grew 2% organically despite expected year-over-year order softness as we continue to execute on our robust backlog, with organic growth in our services business and no change year-over-year in projects. Turning to our products portfolio, we continue to see sequential improvements and the supply chain environment, and we're burning down our past-due backlog as expected. Building product sales decreased 1% organically as continued growth in our world-class fire products business was offset by declines in security and building management systems. Our continued commercial excellence and productivity actions have allowed us to once again mitigate the effects of elevated inflation, expanding HBT segment margin by 200 basis points to 25.5%. Honeywell Connected Enterprises strong software franchise continues to be accretive to overall Honeywell and a powerful differentiator. Overall double-digit organic growth was supported by strength in cyber, industrial, aircraft and buildings. Double-digit orders growth in the quarter is supportive of continued strong performance for HCE. Overall this was a great result for Honeywell. Our operational efforts enabled us to grow second quarter GAAP earnings per share 21% year-over-year to $2.22 and adjusted earnings per share 6% year-over-year to $2.23, despite a $0.15 headwind from lower non-cash income from our overfunded pension. From a year-over-year perspective, segment profit drove $0.21 of the improvement in earnings, the main driver of our EPS growth. A lower adjusted effective tax rate contributed $0.06 of improvement and reduced share count added an additional $0.05. Excluding the pension headwind, below the line and other created a $0.04 year-over-year headwind due to higher net interest expense for a total EPS excluding the pension impact of $2.38, up 13% year-over-year. A bridge for adjusted EPS from 2Q ‘22 to 2Q ‘23 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Finally, as Vimal mentioned earlier, we continue to leverage our strong balance sheet deploying $2.1 billion in the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $3.7 billion as we execute on our capital deployment strategy with meaningful portfolio updates. So overall, disciplined adherence to our best-in-class Honeywell value creation framework provided us with the operational agility to meet or exceed our guided financial metrics. Now let's turn to slide six, to discuss our third quarter and full year outlook. While a number of challenges persists in the current environment, our rigorous operating principles enable us to increase our guided metrics for the full year. Our demand profile remains robust with record backlog levels, particularly in Aerospace and PMT, and stabilized sequential short-cycle order rates across much of the portfolio. For our Q3 sales guidance, we expect to be in the range of $9.1 billion to $9.3 billion up 1% to 4% on an organic basis. We now expect full year sales of $36.7 billion to $37.3 billion which represents an increase of $200 million on the low-end incorporating our strong second quarter results. We're raising the low-end of our organic growth range now 4% to 6%, and we continue to expect a greater balance of price and volume versus last year. We've upgraded our full year expectations in PMT while softening our outlook for SPS to reflect our latest views on the end market speech. Moving to our segment margin guidance, we expect the third quarter to be in the range of 22.3% to 22.6%, resulting in year-over-year margin expansion of 50 to 80 basis points due to commercial excellence and productivity actions. For full year 2023, we are upgrading our segment margin expectations by 10 basis points on the low-end to a new range of 22.4% to 22.6% or 70 to 90 basis points of year-over-year expansion driven by improvement in HBT, SPS and PMT. Now let's take a moment to walk through the third quarter and full year expectations by business. Looking ahead for Aerospace, we continue to be excited about demand across our end markets and expect sequential sales growth throughout the second half supported by ongoing sequential factory output increases and strong orders. Commercial aftermarket particularly in air transport should lead growth in the Aero portfolio as flight hours continue to recover and we see further recovery in the wide-body market from increased international travel. On the commercial original equipment side, we expect build rate strength to drive volume progression in the second half. In Defense and Space, we expect sequential and year-over-year growth in the second half and continue to work through our robust backlog. As a result, we expect Defense and Space to grow at a mid-single digit rate for the full year 2023. We continue to expect modest sequential improvement in the Aerospace supply chain as growing commitments from our suppliers year-to-date coupled with the second consecutive quarter up 20% output increases give us continued confidence in our outlook. Given these factors, we still expect Aero organic sales growth in the low-double-digit range. For segment margin, we still expect Aero to be flattish for the year as we see modest mix pressure within our OE business offsetting overall volume leverage. In Performance Materials and Technologies, encouraging fundamentals persist across our end markets driving favorable growth. For the third quarter, we expect sales to increase year-over-year and sequentially coupled with a seasonally strong fourth quarter. Growth will be led by smart energy, projects and lifecycle solutions and services within Process Solutions as the strength of these businesses saw in the first half continues into the second half. In UOP, our growth outlook for the year is supported by robust demand for petrochemical and refining catalysts. The sustainability technology solutions business within UOP will also provide growth as we capitalize on legislation backed demand. For Advanced Materials we see ongoing demand for fluorine products combined with improvements in electronic materials supportive of sequential growth in the first half. Despite more challenging comps in the second half these favorable markets and conditions and our strong execution give us confidence to upgrade our full year sales growth expectations for PMT to high-single-digits compared to mid-single digits last quarter. For segment margin, we expect sequential improvement throughout the year including robust expansion in the fourth quarter resulting in modest year-over-year improvement for overall 2023. Looking ahead for Safety and Productivity Solutions, our outlook continues to be impacted by the decline in CapEx for new warehouse capacity. However our short-cycle businesses appear to be stabilizing as we awaited demand acceleration in the coming quarters. For the third quarter, we expect this to lead to organic sales declines similar to Q2. However, we anticipate another quarter of strong growth in the aftermarket services portion of our Intelligrated business and sensing and safety technologies should return to growth. With the SPS portfolio bouncing along the bottom of the cycle we now expect full year sales to be down low-double-digits in 2023. However, segment margin continues to be a bright spot for SPS, as we implement productivity actions and drive operational improvements and we still expect strong margin expansion for the full year. In Building Technologies, the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, our team continues to execute well and burn down our past due backlog. For the third quarter, we expect sales to be relatively flat year-over-year as we continue to see more challenging comps and the timing of short-cycle recovery remains uncertain. For the year, we still expect sales in our long-cycle building solutions business to outgrow the more short-cycle building products. Our institutional verticals such as airports and education will remain strong, as we continue to see stimulus spend come through. The business is well aligned to energy efficiency and sustainability megatrends. Given these dynamics we still expect HBT sales for the year to grow low-single-digit organically and we see potential for growth acceleration as we exit ‘23. For segment margins we now expect HBT to lead Honeywell margin expansion as result of strong inflation management and productivity actions. Turning to our other core guided metrics, net below-the-line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of negative $120 million to negative $170 million in the third quarter and negative $500 million to negative $625 million for the full year. This guidance includes a range of repositioning between $40 million $85 million in the quarter and $225 million to $325 million for the year, as we continue to fund attractive restructuring projects and properly position Honeywell for the future. We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be roughly 23% in the third quarter, two points higher than our full year guide of 21%, and two points higher than 2Q, which is unchanged from our previous guidance. That implies a lower 4Q rate due to the timing of discrete items. Importantly, this higher tax rate in Q3 reflects an approximately $0.06 headwind to EPS, will be offset by a commensurate tailwind in 4Q, leaving the full year unchanged. We expect average share count be around 669 million shares in Q3 and 670 million shares for the full year. As a result of these inputs, our adjusted EPS guidance range is now between $2.15 to $2.25 for the third quarter which would be down 4% to flat year-over-year. Excluding the pension headwinds, third quarter EPS growth would be up 2% to up 6%. For full year EPS, we are increasing the midpoint of our guide upgrading the low-end of the range by $0.05 for a new range of $9.05 to $9.25, up 3% to 6% reflecting our continued confidence that 2023 will be a solid growth year for Honeywell despite the year-over-year pension headwinds. Excluding these headwinds, EPS growth would be 10% to 12% for the year. After a strong first half and continued progress on inventory and receivables management, we expect to meet our original free cash flow guidance of $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion in 2023 or $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion excluding the net impact of settlements. So to wrap up, our original thesis for ‘23 remains intact. Robust backlog of $30 billion underpins our strength our growth though the timing of the short-cycle recovery remains uncertain. We're encouraged by the strength of our portfolio and continue to execute on our rigorous operating playbook through a challenging backdrop to deliver outstanding results. Now let's turn to slide seven, and I'll hand the call back to Vimal, for some long-term comments.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Greg. I'd like to take a minute to zoom out from the quarterly results to emphasize the long-term journey, Honeywell is on. As you can see from the chart on slide, Honeywell has made tremendous progress, whether it's accelerating organic growth, expanding gross margins and segment margin, or growing free cash flow, we have come a long way, but we are not closed down, and we have identified a critical lever that will enable us reach even higher level of financial performance. We remain committed to our long-term growth as good term that we discussed during our May Investor Day and during 2023 guidance closely aligned with this framework. We carefully track our progression towards achieving our targets and remain confident in our ability to accelerate growth, achieved 25% segment margin and expand gross margin to above 40% and free cash flow margins to mid-teens and beyond. As I said in May, my priorities as CEO include accelerating organic growth and enhancing our innovation playbook, growing our sustainability and digitization capability and maintaining our leadership position in high growth regions. I also plan to evolve the accelerating operating system to drive incremental value through business model optimization. Additionally, Honeywell has undergone substantial internal transformation, the result of which you can see in our top line and bottom line improvements over the last decade. I plan to further optimize the portfolio through strategic capital deployment and reduce exposure to non-core areas. [3Ds] (ph) announced this quarter demonstrated the strength of our M&A pipeline and our commitment to deploy capital. I'm excited to lead the change for this next phase of transformation for Honeywell, and I'm confident in our ability to deliver superior returns for our shareholders, as we deploy our global design model across our portfolio, we are uncovering substantial opportunities to capture value whether it is expanding margins, driving incremental sales growth or generating more cash, and we will continue to update you as these efforts translate increasingly into enhanced financial performance. Now let's turn into slide eight into closing part before we move into Q&A. Honeywell executed very well in what remains a very dynamic operating environment. We'll continue to effectively manage through ongoing external factors by delivering on our commitment by relying on our value creation framework. The macro economy remains challenging, and the timing of our short-cycle acceleration is uncertain, but with ongoing strength in our two biggest end markets, Aerospace and Energy combined with operating rigor you have come to expect from Honeywell we are confident in our ability to weather near-term challenges and meet our performance targets. Thank you all to our Honeywell colleagues who continue to enable us outperform in any environment. With that, Sean, let's move to Q&A.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Vimal. Vimal, Greg and Anne are now available to answer your questions. [Operator Instructions] Liz, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Andrew, your line is now open.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. Can you hear him?
Sean Meakim:
Yes. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. Good morning. Just a question on Advanced Materials. It's a good return business. When should we expect this business to return to growth? And also, you know, do you guys need to add capacity to grow this business, how strong the structural demand is? Thank you.
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. Thanks, Andrew. So, I think the key is the comps of Advanced Materials to 2022, we grew more than 20% last year. So, combine that with some of the weaknesses we see in electronic material side, we are having a moderate year for the Advanced Materials this year. We do expect markets to turn better during second half and more importantly in 2024. To your question on capacity expansion, we remain very excited. In fact, in the next trough cycle, we expect more capital investment increase our capacity for Advanced Material for some of the existing offering and potentially some new offering. So overall, we remain very bullish on Advanced Materials portfolio.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with J.P. Morgan.
Steve Tusa :
Hi, good morning, guys.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning, Steve.
Steve Tusa :
The underlying -- I guess on the positive side, very strong margin in Aerospace, tough to kind of like cut through the OE incentives. Was there anything unusual there, like where the OE incentives, we just under the quarterly timing of those. I mean, I'm kind of getting to an underlying incremental of around like 40% for that business if we adjust for some of these OE incentives. Can you just maybe talk about some of the moving parts there and whether I'm roughly right on the math?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So, the OE incentives, we haven't disclosed the exact amount of them, but first half is going to be a little lighter than the second half in terms of those OE incentives. So, that's why when we talk about the full year margins, still being flattish, even though we had a pretty strong Q2, I think that's really what's going on in that regard.
Steve Tusa :
Okay. And then just one last one on HBT. That business just perhaps should be growing better in this environment even Building Solutions was kind of like weak. So if there's really not a function -- that's really can't be a function of destocking. So maybe what are the moving parts there and why are you guys not keeping up with the other non-res players out there? Thanks.
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So Steve, we are conscious of our margin rates in HBT and make careful selection of our projects which have adequate margins and strong service. So, I think given that choice we make, you can see impact of that in margin expansion of Building Technologies, and that comes to a certain degree at the organic growth rate. So, it's a choice to be made, and we want to deliver both an ideal word but we remain biased more towards growth in margin expansion versus the top line growth.
Steve Tusa :
Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu :
Good morning, guys and thank you. I want to ask on Aerospace specific one, if that's okay. Last quarter, you raised your Aerospace guide to up low-double-digits. And I think the bulk of the raise had come from the OE side, which you guys are doing well in. But there's been a bunch of moving pieces this quarter with the MAX officially go into 38 per month yesterday. And then, of course, engine issues could force, like a build new build versus spares issue at Airbus on the A320. So kind of how are you thinking about the puts and takes for Aerospace to OE as we get into the second half following 15% growth in the first half?
Vimal Kapur:
So Sheila, our deliveries for the year are pretty well aligned with all OEs, both on the transport as well as on the business jet side. We have our commits to all key OEMs on for Q3, Q4, and our projections are based upon those commit rates. So I can't comment on their commitments to their customers, but we are pretty well aligned our commits to them. And our revenue growth and our volume growth is linked to that. And it's going to be pretty strong. I mean, we expect the momentum in Aerospace not to change, in 2023 or for that matter even in 2024. Our backlog is extremely strong and our supply chain continues to improve every quarter.
Greg Lewis:
And the recent events have not changed their expectations of us to this stage.
Sheila Kahyaoglu :
Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell :
Hi, good morning. Maybe just my question would be on SPS. Just wanted to try and understand how the sort of orders and backlog there is moving. I can imagine it's not moving well, and that's why the revenue guide has come down. But any finer points on the orders and backlogs? And I suppose in the conviction level around warehouse accelerating next year, if that's starting to get sort of tested now because of the ongoing backlog pressure. And if we think about the shorter cycle businesses, how severe do you think the inventory depletion needs are in that business? And what does that mean for exit rates in SPS from this year on the top line?
Greg Lewis:
Sure. So I would say if we take IGS first, our order rates are down meaningfully as we've talked about as -- but when we look at overall pipeline, we're starting to see the pipeline are build back to a little bit better levels. That may not occur immediately, but we see if there is a chance that we've maybe growing again in 2024 that will really be dictated by how the back half orders really come in. But we are starting to see a little bit more strength in the pipeline, which I think is a positive. As it relates to the short-cycle businesses, what we talk about, it's down year-on-year because the first half of the year was particularly high, but we're seeing stabilization in the last two to three quarters have been either going up sequentially or staying roughly flat. So, I think we've reached this stabilization point on a short-cycle. And as and when some of those markets begin to recover then we'll see some growth. So as we think about SPS overall, I would expect it's going to grow in 2024. It's probably not going to be at the high-end of our growth rate for our SPGs, but that's how we see it with the data that's coming through right now.
Julian Mitchell :
Thanks very much.
Vimal Kapur:
Yes.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis :
Hi, good morning, everybody, and welcome, Vimal.
Vimal Kapur:
Hi, Scott, good morning.
Scott Davis :
Vimal, couple of small things here. One, I mean, you guys are spending a couple of $100 million a year on quantum. Vimal, do you have a kind of an evolved vision of where this business goes and how you can monetize it, when you can monetize it, if is it can the cash flow bleed go down a little bit over time or some kind of positive endgame that you see here?
Vimal Kapur:
So, Scott, I mean, we have publicly stated that we would like to monetize value of the quantum investment we have made in Quantinuum. And as the markets are more ready for IPO, which probably are here for a while, we are getting prepared for that. So, we are doing everything towards that endgame, and the strategy hasn't changed to create more value for our shareholders at appropriate time through an IPO for that business.
Scott Davis :
Okay. Fair enough. And just quickly, just following up on Steve's question, I mean, I would have thought Forge for buildings would have given you a little bit of a lift given the timing of when you rolled that out. I understand project selectivity, but I would have thought they would have given you a little bit more of a tailwind into the quarter, timing issues there and that those orders haven't really kicked in yet, and we'll see that later in the year or is there other competitive dynamics?
Vimal Kapur:
Look, I mean, we are definitely seeing better bookings for Forge for buildings. But one fact I would like to state is that business runs on a SaaS model. So even a large booking, the revenue recognition process is different from traditional perpetual license-based model. So the revenue accretion is going to spread over multiple years for that. And we are consciously make that decision because rather than showing a short-term win, we are more biasing out ourselves towards more recurring revenue model there as I've chatted before. So that's why you see lesser impact, but we are scoring wins in Forge for buildings. And I continue to remain very bullish on that segment.
Scott Davis :
Okay, fair enough. Best of luck, Vimal.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Scott.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe :
Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Just wanted to maybe just put a final point on Julian's question on SPS. So obviously encouraging signs of the bottoming process here, but it does feel like the guidance embeds flat to maybe flattish plus or minus growth in fourth just want to make sure that's the case and you've got good loans on that. And maybe on HBT, just break down geographically what you're seeing versus North America, Europe and China? And whether there's any channel dynamics here we should think about as well?
Vimal Kapur:
So I'll start with HBT, turn to Greg for respond to SPS question. I think HBT from a geographic perspective, Europe continues to be where we want have better outcome. I think that's a bit of a drag at this point. The strength is in high growth regions. We see strength in Middle East, India and China in buildings and North America is more of, I would say, sequentially no change within the business. So that's kind of our overall dynamic. On the channel side, I mean, the channel demand will be determined by the end market demand. So we -- it's a very short-cycle business. So we don't see any dynamics of channels having less or more inventory at the in the HBT business. Maybe Greg, do you want to respond to SPS question.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So, SPS is likely to be down in the fourth quarter. So I would say it's not going to be flattish, it's going to be probably more like down. I think 3Q and 2Q are going to look pretty similar to one another, and then we'll get a little bit of a normal seasonal bump in the fourth quarter. So, that's the way I would think about the progression for SPS top line overall.
Nigel Coe :
Great. Thanks.
Greg Lewis:
Yes.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague :
Hi, thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Vimal Kapur:
Hi, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague :
I was going to ask a near-term question, but given your response about margins in HBT, I wonder if we could maybe just zoom out and just kind of think philosophically about kind of the trade-off between growth and margins, right? We have seen situations in the past where companies with high margins get, like, a lack of a better term, a little bit trapped and wanting to maintain grow the margins, right, and growth ends up suffering as a result. So could you address this to some degree, obviously, when we're together in New York. But could you maybe elaborate a little bit more on your philosophy relative to managing those two metrics? And how you make sure you don't hinder growth by overly focusing on margins.
Vimal Kapur:
If our business model and HBT is combination of serving the market both through direct and channel. So we have to make choice what business we want to serve direct and what business we want to serve through channels. And in direct, we want to pick projects which have a strong first party content and aftermarket services. So given that algorithm, we make choices with that rule. And I -- we are sensitive to drive top line growth, but we are not going to compromise to book projects which are lower margins and show shining top line growth without any margin expansion. That has been our principles. And the reason we are quite determined on the principle is it takes one bad project to deteriorate the entire business and the portfolio. So we remain committed to that model. And I'm not suggesting that we will not see growth in Building Technologies. I do believe that as energy efficiency becomes more prominent across the board, our energy business there will do well, and we will deliver more growth in the project side of the house too. But that remains our overarching --
Jeffrey Sprague :
Yes, thank you. I sort of meant the question on a total Honeywell basis also though.
Vimal Kapur:
Okay. On total Honeywell basis, I mean, organic growth on the top end of our range is my biggest priority. I stated that in Investor Day, it's something I want to make my contribution in my tenure is how we growth at a higher rate. Now we are having favorable macros in two of our biggest SPGs, both in Aero and PMT. So on the strength of that and if we couple that with the right new products, I see no reason that we should be delivering our growth in upper end of our four to seven algorithms. And that's what I work on every day and continue to drive our new product execution and then M&A accelerating our overall growth algorithm. That remains my top commitment.
Jeffrey Sprague :
Thank you for the perspective.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.
Josh Pokrzywinski :
Hi, good morning.
Vimal Kapur:
Hi, Josh.
Josh Pokrzywinski :
Hi, so just want to maybe flip around the HBT question from the other perspective on PMT. I mean, you're seeing some of the bulk chemical guys go through destocking. I think traditional oil spending has been okay, but maybe not as strong as what you guys are seeing in some of the other process guys are seeing. I guess just how much are we getting away from kind of traditional oil versus either some of these mega projects or energy transition, like is this business really transcending its roots of even kind of five, six, seven years ago?
Vimal Kapur:
Sure. So, Josh, if I look at each of the three segments, our Automation Business Process Solution has increasingly reduced its dependence on oil and gas. It has diversified very well in other end markets, energy storage, the gigafactory, metals and mining, etcetera. So we can see that in the growth rate of revenue generation for Process Solutions, and we remain very bullish on that business for 2023 and 2024. The UOP segment, our strategy has been to grow our business into sustainable technology, renewable fuels, clean hydrogen, carbon capture, and we see pretty strong bookings in our sustainable technologies business. Just as a data point, now we have licensed 40 renewable fuel projects till Q3, and on a path to be 50 by I would say Q1 of 2024, which I mentioned in couple of earlier Investor meetings. So, UOP Business is becoming also less linked to traditional refining petrochemicals, but fast moving towards renewable technology. And in Advanced Materials, our business is very specialty chemicals, our product line continues to grow. We see some pressure in electronic materials, which is reflected in our overall growth rates. But we do expect that to turn back into normalcy in 2024. So overall, the extremely positive outcome and bullish view on PMT for second half of 2023 and 2024. The booking rates remain strong, backlog is very strong, new innovation pipeline is very, very strong. So, all good news there.
Josh Pokrzywinski :
Understood.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie :
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning.
Joe Ritchie :
And, so just real two quick ones. I guess just on SPS we've talked a little bit about the growth dynamics for the year. I'm just curious how the reduction in the short-cycle businesses is perhaps impacting margins for the second half of the year? And then the other question is really around the Defense business. It's nice to see the inflection there. I'm just curious at what point do you really start to see an acceleration in Defense growth just given what you know about your production schedules?
Vimal Kapur:
So, the way we have guided it, we are short-cycle orders have stabilized and we're expecting similar trend over the next few months and our guide is based upon that. We are expecting stronger performance in warehouse automation orders because our pipeline has become better, but that will really strengthen 2024 position given the long-cycle nature of the business. And that's our forecast right now, and we'll continue to update you if things change.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. And I would just say, Joe, we have -- the teams have resized their costs envelope to the current reality, and as and when the short-cycle businesses reaccelerate, you can imagine those are very high margin at the BCM level and that will create a lot of acceleration from a margin rate standpoint. So the margin rates that we’re going to be printing now or going to be within a higher band until we see that acceleration come, but their business is poised for it. And we'll see, is that going to be Q4, is it going to be Q1, remains to be seen, but we've sized the business properly and there's going to be a fairly substantial leverage opportunity when that acceleration happens.
Joe Ritchie :
And then here a question on Defense, when we could see an acceleration in demand there.
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So in Defense, our bookings remain very, very strong. So, we are working our supply chain constraints there, and we do expect our delivery performance to be better in second half versus first half. So we had low-single-digits in the first half of the year. We expect the year to finish more in the mid-single digits for the Defense business.
Greg Lewis:
And from here though, we've passed probably the comps where small increments are going to create –
Vimal Kapur:
Yes.
Greg Lewis:
Meaningful growth from a percentage basis. So, it should be all accretive from this point on.
Vimal Kapur:
And also, I should also mention we see longer term for the defense business, pretty strong demand outside United States. As you can all imagine, the recent war in Ukraine, has created more higher budgets by different comments. And we clearly see those signals coming to us in terms of demand from NATO Countries, other friendly countries, and that will play out even more stronger for the Defense business in the times to come.
Joe Ritchie :
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Greg Lewis:
Hi, Deane.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning.
Deane Dray:
Hi, just want to circle back on SPS if we could, on warehouse automation, what are you seeing in the pipeline that suggests a bottoming? And then a related question is, can you give us any sense of when you'll hit this targeted critical mass of installations that will drive that flywheel of attractive aftermarket. How close are you to that? What kind of timeframe?
Vimal Kapur:
Sure. So, the pipeline is growing very nicely and that gives us a little bit more optimism on better orders performance for the business in the second half of the year. And the part of where the pipeline growth is driven by much more diversified end markets we serve now. So we are not limited to e-commerce. We are diversified into retail, into fashion, into logistics. So that wider coverage is giving us better pipeline and we are anticipating good progress in the orders in the second half of the year. On the aftermarket flywheel, I would say it's been working now. We are growing double-digits in aftermarket in 2023 and will cross our aftermarket business more than $0.5 billion in bookings and pretty much nearly the same revenue for the year. And we don't expect the momentum to stop. That's our strength. Honeywell has strong playbook on how to drive aftermarket services, and that's the value we'll continue to add into the business. And our strength in that business in 2024, therefore, we anticipate low to moderate growth, but very strong margin expansion because we continue to build more business with more first party content and very strong aftermarket. And we couple the two together, we do expect pretty healthy margin growth in warehouse automation business in 2024.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I mean that business was around $200 million of the total in [‘18] (ph) by 2022, it doubled to roughly $400 million. As Vimal said, this year is going to be over $500 million.
Vimal Kapur:
Aftermarket business --
Greg Lewis:
So that aftermarket is happening.
Deane Dray:
Great. Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Welcome.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase :
Yes, thanks guys. Good morning.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning.
Nicole DeBlase :
Just maybe on PMT, if you guys could talk a little bit more about the order activity you saw within UOP and HPS in the quarter? And then on the margins, you talked about the challenges in Advanced Materials. I guess, how does that kind of phase through the second half of the year? Thank you.
Vimal Kapur:
So orders, orders remain pretty strong in first half for UOP and HPS and we expect to finish here strong in both the businesses, I would say, high-single-digit orders growth in both UOP and HPS. And I explained the rationale of it. In HPS, it's more diversified end markets, and our strength of our aftermarket business there. And in UOP, it is diversifying to renewable technologies. And as they become more and more important part of our portfolio, it continues to grow the business. And UOP, the catalyst business continues to have a lot of strength in both refining and petrochemical catalysts. Advanced Materials, as I mentioned, 2022 was an outstanding year 20% plus growth. So our comps year-on-year are tough. The margin rates are driven by some of the launch shutdown, which we had announced earlier. So that certainly put pressure on our cost positions, and then some contraction in electronic materials business, which is depressing our margins. But overall, let's say still highest margin business in the PMT portfolio, and as mentioned before, with the potential capacity expansion coming in years to come, this business is poised to perform very well in our portfolio.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, Nicole, if you think about this year, we're literally going to progress each and every quarter sequentially a little bit better we picked up about 110 basis points sequentially from 1Q to 2Q. We expect some additional sequential improvement in Q3 and then again in Q4. So I think as we get to the end of the year, it'll look like modest year-over-year for the full year, but it's going to be a nice sequential step up quarter-to-quarter.
Nicole DeBlase :
Thanks guys.
Greg Lewis:
Welcome.
Sean Meakim:
Liz, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
This question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning, everyone.
Greg Lewis:
Hi, Andrew.
Vimal Kapur:
Vimal, could you talk about the stepped up level of acquisitions you did in the quarter? Would you expect that kind of activity to continue over the next few quarters? Have you changed any of your methods for assessing potential acquisitions, I think given the investor day you probably didn't, but could you talk about the pipeline of opportunities going forward?
Vimal Kapur:
Look Andrew, the pipeline remains extremely strong. We are actively working more outbound activities in M&A and remain very optimistic if we can get the deals done at the right price. Because one thing we're not going to compromise is our deal metrics. We want to stay disciplined to create shareholder value, but at the same time our number of opportunities in the play are at the much higher elevated level compared to this time in the past. So, Anne if you want to add any comment from your perspective,
Anne Madden:
Yes, I would just add, the pipeline is growing. It's rich. We feel good as a strategic acquirer. We maintain the view that it's hospitable environment for strategic acquirers, while the private equity community still is having a harder time financing. So it's a good time for us to be a buyer and we expect that environment to continue into 2024 and beyond.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Thank you.
Anne Madden:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Vimal Kapur for closing remarks.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you. Our value creation framework is working. We are deploying our rigorous operating playbook to navigate near-term uncertainty. Honeywell remains well positioned to outperform in any environment as we capitalize on recovering end markets combined with solid operational execution. Thank you all, our Honeywell colleagues, who continue to drive differentiated performance for all our customers and shareholders. Thank you for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please, go ahead.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Liz. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis; President and Chief Operating Officer, Vimal Kapur; and Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Anne Madden. This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website. From time to time, we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website. Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and other businesses as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the first quarter, share our guidance for the second quarter and provide our update to our full year 2023 outlook. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on slide two. To open today's discussion, I'd like to take a moment to reflect on what our company has accomplished over the past seven years. We've consistently outperformed against the market and our peers, doubling our share price over that time frame. We undertook a radical transformation agenda, dramatically simplifying and digitizing our operations and supply chain, resulting in a much more contemporary company, which is a platform for growth. We launched our software business, Honeywell Connected Enterprise, that continues to generate not only value for our customers, but accretive growth and profitability for Honeywell. We also reshaped the portfolio, spinning off three sizable businesses, while selling to others and adding 16 successful acquisitions, reducing cyclicality and enhancing our margins. We reconfigured our strategic business groups to better align with end-market opportunities and customer needs. We built that culture of innovation that's led to significant new breakthrough technologies and an ultimately meaningfully stronger organic growth. Last, and I'm not breaking any news here, this will be my last earnings call as the CEO of Honeywell, as Vimal transitions into the CEO role in just over a month, and I become Executive Chairman. It's a great example of the emphasis Honeywell places on leadership development and succession plan. With his decades of experience and success leading businesses across our portfolio, Vimal is absolutely the right person to take on the CEO mantle for Honeywell into the next phase of our transformation. I look forward to supporting him over the next year, providing him with additional bandwidth by helping with mergers and acquisitions activity, spending time with customers and strategic planning. Our future is bright. With that said, the present is pretty good, too. Let's turn to slide three to discuss our first quarter performance. We delivered a very strong first quarter, exceeding the high end of our first quarter organic sales, segment margin and adjusted earnings per share guidance. Despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges, I'm pleased with our disciplined execution and differentiated technologies to enable us to over deliver on our commitments. First quarter organic sales were up 8% year-over-year, led by double-digit growth in our Aerospace and PMT businesses, underpinned by a rigorous operational execution. The first quarter backlog grew to a new record of $30.3 billion, up 6% year-over-year and 2% sequentially, due to continued strength in Aerospace and Performance Materials and Technologies. Similar to last quarter, orders remained a very positive story in Aero and PMT, up double digits organically in each, leading to 1% organic growth and 8% sequential growth overall in the first quarter, overcoming the difficult year-over-year comps in HBT and SPS. We remain confident in our 2023 setup, as we capitalize on recovering end markets combined with solid operational execution. Our segment margin expanded 90 basis points year-over-year, led by robust expansion in Safety and Productivity Solutions and Honeywell Building Technologies, as our strategic pricing actions enable us to remain ahead of the inflation curve and we benefit from our productivity actions. Excluding the net impact of the settlements, as we discussed in our guide, free cash flow was $300 million in the first quarter, in line with our expectations and operationally stronger than 2022. We deployed $1.6 billion to dividends, growth CapEx and share repurchases, including opportunistically repurchasing the same 3.5 million shares throughout the quarter, reducing our weighted average share count to 673 million. We also announced the acquisition of Compressor Controls Corporation this week, which Vimal will provide more detail on shortly. Looking forward, I am encouraged by the strength we are seeing in many areas of our portfolio. We continue to execute on our proven value-creation framework, which is underpinned by our Accelerator operating system. I am proud of our ability to over-deliver another quarter amidst a challenging external environment. Next, let's turn to Vimal to discuss some exciting recent announcements.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to slide 4. In February, we announced that ExxonMobil will deploy Honeywell's carbon capture technology as its integrated complex in Baytown, Texas. The plant is expected to be the largest low-carbon hydrogen project in the world at planned startup and projected to produce around one billion cubic feet of low carbon hydrogen per day. Honeywell technology will enable the facility to capture more than 98% of the associated CO2 emission, which will be sequestered and permanently stored by ExxonMobil. In addition, Honeywell recently launched a European Clean Aviation project to develop a new generation of Aerospace-qualified megawatt-class fuel cells powered by hydrogen. Green hydrogen is an extremely clean power source that can be used to propel future aircraft, which makes it particularly appealing to the aerospace sector as we work to reduce carbon emissions. Work on this project will be performed at Honeywell Technology Solutions Research & Development Center in Brno, Czech Republic and at all other Honeywell and Project partner sites across Europe. Finally, this week, we announced a $40 million-plus win in our Connected Enterprise business with Globalworth, a leading real estate investor in Central and Eastern Europe. Globalworth is using Honeywell's Forge for building technology to help monitor energy consumption down to a device or asset level across their commercial office buildings in Romania and Poland, while maintaining occupant comfort and productivity. Our solution will help reduce operating costs and lower energy consumption, key outcome for Europe's overreaching climate objectives. These existing technology, provide us with a new growth sectors, while reinforcing Honeywell's sustainability message demonstrating how we are helping the world solve its toughest challenge across all our end markets. Now, let's turn to slide 5 to discuss an exciting new acquisition we just announced this week. On Wednesday, we announced an agreement to acquire Compressor Controls Corporation, in short, CCC, a leading provider of the machinery control and optimization solutions, including controlled hardware, software and services, for $670 million in all cash transactions. CCC technologies primarily serve the LNG gas processing, refining and petrochemical segment and will bolster Honeywell's high-growth sustainability portfolio with new carbon-capture control solutions, where the same turbo machinery is used to achieve effective removal of CO2 from the process plant emission. This acquisition will be integrated into Honeywell's Process Solutions business and strengthen Honeywell's leadership in industrial control, automation and process solutions, enabling customers to accelerate their energy transition. CCC's EBITDA margins are accretive to Honeywell, and we expect to achieve a cash basis return on investment of more than 15% by fifth year that CCC is part of Honeywell. The transaction represents 15 times 2023 expected EBITDA on a tax-adjusted basis and 13 times EBITDA, assuming $8 million of annualized cost synergies. I'm excited about the new technologies and adjacencies we have unlocked through this latest transaction. We've said before that we have an active M&A pipeline, and this is further evidenced that we are continuously enhancing our automation portfolio by investing in new opportunities. Now let's turn to slide 6 to discuss the first quarter results in more detail. As Darius mentioned, we delivered a strong first quarter results despite a dynamic economic backdrop. Our operational agility enabled us to exceed our financial commitments. First quarter sales grew 8% organically with double-digit growth in PMT and Aero, where we generated continued volume improvement on a strong demand and an improving supply chain. In fact, volume grew 2% for overall Honeywell in the first quarter, despite an impact of traffic activity levels in our long-cycle warehouse automation business. Excluding SPS, volumes were up 7% for first quarter. Our backlog grew 6% year-over-year and 2% sequentially, and our orders grew 1% organically and 8% sequentially, driven by long-cycle strength in Aero and PMT. Supply chain remains a constraint on our overall growth. However, Aero saw further output improvement, and we saw positive backlog reduction across all of our short-cycle businesses. In addition to strong organic growth, we expanded segment margins by 90 basis points year-over-year to 22%. We continue to reap benefits from our investment in Honeywell Digital that have enabled us to stay ahead of the inflation curve through the strategic pricing action, despite the topline headwinds, SPS led the other SBGs with the largest segment margin expansion as the benefit from the right-sized cost base. Now, let's spend a few minutes on the first quarter performance by business. Aerospace sales for the first quarter were up 14% organically, led by 20% growth in Commercial Aviation, the fifth straight quarter of at least 20% organic growth and eighth straight quarter of double-digit growth. Sales growth was strongest in commercial aviation aftermarket, where continued flight hour recovery resulted in increased spare shipments and repair and overhaul sales, particularly in air transport. Commercial original equipment sales were also increased double-digit, driven by higher business and general aviation sales. Defense and Space returned to growth in the first quarter as we were able to convert our strong 2022 orders book increased sales volume. Book-to-bill in defense and space remained greater than 1 in the quarter. As expected, the Aero supply chain continued to make modest progress sequentially. Improvements in material availability from the lower supplier de-commitment rates enabled us to increase our original equipment and spare shipment by 20% year-over-year in first quarter. Our positive backlog remains historically high level, as expected, with plenty of volume yet to be unlocked. Segment margin in Aerospace contracted 80 basis points year-over-year to 26.6%, driven by higher sales of lower-margin original equipment products, partially offset by our commercial excellence effort and volume leverage. Performance Materials and Technologies orders grew organically across all three businesses, ahead of our expectations, led by over 20% growth in UOP. We remain particularly excited about traction in our Sustainable Technology Solutions business, where orders doubled year-over-year. For sales, PMT grew 15% organically in the quarter with double-digit growth in all three segments of the PMT portfolio. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth in PMT. UOP grew 19% organically in the quarter, led by refining catalyst shipments and gas processing, partially offset by lower refining and pet-chem equipment volumes. Process Solutions grew 16% organically, driven by strength in projects and Smart Energy. In Advanced Materials, sales grew 12% in the quarter as we saw another quarter of robust demand in fluorine products that more than offset some softness in our Electronic Materials business. Segment margin contracted 20 basis points year-over-year to 20.6% as a result of cost inflation, higher sales of lower-margin products and a previously communicated disruption in one of our PMT plants that caused some unplanned downtime, partially offset by commercial excellence and volume leverage. Safety and Productivity Solutions sales decreased 11% organically in the quarter. Sales decline were led by warehouse and Workflow Solutions and productivity solutions and services. The aftermarket services portion of our Intelligrated business continues to perform well as expected, with sales growing greater than 20% in the quarter at accretive margins. And the Sensing portion of our Sensing and Safety Technologies business remains a bright spot in the portfolio. Continuing on the trend from last year, segment margin for SPS was once again a standout in the quarter, expanding 270 basis points to 17.2% as a result of productivity actions and commercial excellence, partially offset by lower volume leverage and inflation. In Building Technologies, sales increased 9% organically in the quarter, with growth in both Building Products and Building Solutions. Project sales were up double-digits for the fourth consecutive quarter as we continue to convert our strong backlog. Services volumes also increased in the quarter, resulting in 13% organic sales growth in Building Solutions. Turning to our product portfolio, the supply chain is improving as expected. Building Products grew 7% organically year-over-year to continued strength in our world-class fire franchise. HBT orders were stronger than expected in first quarter, although down mid-single digits year-over-year organically as we lap outsized 2022 comps from the height of supply chain challenges. While inflation remains elevated, and our strong building solution sales presented as mix headwind, our commercial excellence and productivity effort allow us to mitigate these challenges and expand HBT segment margins, by 170 basis points to 25.2%. Growth across our portfolio continues to be supported by accretive results in Honeywell Connected Enterprises, an ongoing indicator of the power of strong software franchise. Robust overall growth was driven by double-digit growth in cyber, industrial, aerospace and connected building. The future outlook is also strong due to double-digit growth in orders. Overall, this was a great result for Honeywell. Adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter grew 8% to $2.07, $0.11 above the high end of our first quarter guidance and up 16%, excluding pension headwinds. Segment profits drove $0.21 of year-over-year improvement in earnings per share, the main driver of our EPS growth. Excluding the pension headwinds, below the line and other added $0.03 year-over-year, a lower adjusted effective tax rate contributed $0.02 of improvement and reduced share count added an additional $0.05 for total EPS, excluding the pension impact of $2.22. This was offset by a $0.15 headwind from a lower pension income. A bridge from adjusted EPS from 1Q 2022 to 1Q 2023 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. We made good progress on cash for Q1. Reported cash flow for the quarter was negative $1 billion due to payment of settlements signed in fourth quarter of 2022, which we signaled in our guidance call. Excluding the net impact of these settlements, we generated $300 million of free cash flow up from $50 million in the first quarter of last year. This increase was driven by improved working capital, including more favorable payables and inventory balances. As we discussed, our inventory planning focus will be a major contributor to our cash performance in 2023, and we are off to a promising start. So overall, Honeywell operating playbook continues to deliver strong results. And that, combined with our differentiated portfolio of solutions, will enable us to drive compelling growth in earnings and cash for the quarters to come. Now let me turn it over to Greg, as we move to Slide 7 to discuss our second quarter and full year guidance.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Vimal, and good morning, everyone. As we look to the rest of 2023, our original guidance framework continues to be solid. We delivered above our Q1 guide as we navigated known risks and have raised the year to reflect that. Our demand profile remains robust with record backlog and favorable order trends in Aerospace and PMT. We continue to monitor the macroeconomic backdrop and its impacts on our shorter-cycle businesses, and our rigorous operating principles enable us to stay agile to outperform through another challenging year. For our 2Q sales guidance, we expect to be in the range of $9.0 billion to $9.2 billion, up 1% to 4% on an organic basis. We now expect full year sales of $36.5 billion to $37.3 billion, which represents an increase of $500 million in the low end and $300 million on the high end from our prior guidance, incorporating our strong first quarter results. We're raising our organic growth range now at 3% to 6%, and we continue to expect a greater balance of price and volume versus last year and have upgraded our full year expectations in Aero, while softening our outlook for SPS to reflect the demand we're seeing. Moving to our segment margin guidance. We expect the second quarter to be in the range of 21.8% to 22.2%, resulting in year-over-year margin expansion of 90 to 130 basis points due to continued benefits from our improving cost position and business mix in SPS and commercial excellence in HBT.’ For full year 2023, we're upgrading our segment expectations -- our segment margin expectations by 10 basis points on the low end to a new range of 22.3% to 22.6% or 60 to 90 basis points of year-over-year expansion. Our rigorous fixed cost management and favorable price cost strategies remain key elements of our operating playbook, helping us to drive margin expansion. Now let's take a moment to walk through the second quarter and full year expectations by segment. Looking ahead for Aerospace, demand across our end markets remain very encouraging. We expect modest sequential sales growth in the second quarter as flight hours continue to improve with particular strength in commercial aftermarket. This flight hour growth, enhanced by further recovery in wide-body aircraft as international travel recovers, will lead commercial aftermarket to be our strongest end market for sales in 2023. On the commercial OE side, we also expect strong volume growth as build rates, particularly for business and general aviation OEs continue to trend upwards. In Defense & Space, we passed the growth inflection point in 1Q, and we expect similar organic growth rates throughout the year as we convert our strong defense order book into sales. While the demand environment supports rapid top line acceleration, the pace of sales growth throughout 2023 will ultimately be determined by the rate of recovery in the Aero supply chain. Our expectation for the supply chain remains unchanged, modest, steady improvement each quarter. Reduced decommits from suppliers should allow for sequential improvements in factory output. Given the positive signs from the supply chain and continued strength in our order book, we now expect Aero organic sales growth in the low double-digit range, an upgrade from our outlook last quarter of high single digits to low double-digit growth. However, we anticipate most of the incremental sales strength to come from our OE business, resulting in modest mix pressure on margins. We now expect Aero segment margins to be flattish for the full year. In Performance Materials and Technologies, the constructive outlook across our end markets will continue to drive favorable growth. For the second quarter, we expect sales to increase sequentially and year-over-year, led by continued strength in our projects and smart energy businesses within Process Solutions as well as life-cycle solutions and services. This strength will likely continue throughout the year, supporting a strong growth for Process Solutions overall. In Advanced Materials, continued demand for flooring products will enable us to capitalize on our capacity expansion investments we made in 2022, but we still expect to see some softness in electronic materials until the second half of the year. In UOP, our growth outlook is supported by robust demand for gas processing equipment, and we see increasing global demand for our sustainable technology solutions as legislation has improved project economics. For the full year, another quarter of strong orders and backlog growth gives us confidence in our sales expectations, although more challenging comps moving forward mean that the first quarter will likely be the largest in terms of organic growth. We still expect sales for overall PMT to be up mid-single digits for the year. Segment margin and PMT should expand sequentially in the second quarter and throughout the second half, leading to modest expansion for the year. Looking ahead for SPS, we are expecting low double-digit year-over-year declines in the second quarter as we see continued impact from the decline in investment for new warehouse capacity and short-cycle demand softness in our products businesses. However, we expect sales to grow sequentially from the first quarter, led by strength in sensing and safety technologies. The aftermarket services portion of our Intelligrated business continues to grow at strong double-digit rates, and we anticipate this trend continuing throughout the year. In our short-cycle businesses, the demand outlook for 2023 is a bit more challenged than we initially anticipated. And as a result, we now expect SPS to be down high single digits, lower than our initial guidance last quarter of down mid-single digits to high single digits. However, from a margin standpoint, we still anticipate another solid year for SPS as we see the results of our operational improvements and as sales mix continues to improve, as evidenced in our first quarter results. In Building Technologies, we are encouraged by our strong start to the year and the overall execution of the business. For the second quarter, sales should improve sequentially and lead to modest year-over-year growth as the supply chain environment continues to slowly improve, allowing us to further work down the past-due backlog we built last year in our Building Products business. We expect this robust backlog, along with stimulus-led institutional demand in verticals such as airports, healthcare and education, to remain resilient throughout the year. On the Building Solutions side, we are encouraged by the strong demand for our building services, and we see our long-cycle Building Solutions sales likely outpacing product sales in 2023. For overall HBT, while we delivered high single-digit growth for the first quarter, comps get harder as we progress throughout the year, given that the impacts from our supply constraints were most acute in the first half of 2022. And we maintain our full year sales outlook of low single digit organic growth. Although, as we've said previously, we'll continue to monitor orders for Q2 and may have an upgrade opportunity after we complete the second quarter. HBT remains well aligned to emerging secular themes of sustainability and energy efficiency, and we see runway for growth acceleration as we exit 2023. For HBT segment margins, we still expect year-over-year expansion in 2023 as we maintain our momentum for the first quarter. Turning to our other core guided metrics, net below-the-line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of negative $130 million to negative $185 million in the second quarter and negative $500 million to negative $625 million for the full year. This guidance includes a range of repositioning between $50 million and $100 million for 2Q and $225 million to $325 million for the year, as we continue to fund attractive restructuring projects and properly position Honeywell for the future. We expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be roughly 21% in the second quarter and for the year and the average share count to be around 671 million shares in 2Q and approximately 670 million shares for the full year. Earlier this week, the Board approved a $10 billion share repurchase authorization, providing us with continued flexibility on the best way to deploy our balance sheet. As a result of these inputs, our adjusted earnings per share guidance range is between $2.15 and $2.25 for the second quarter, up 2% to 7% year-over-year. For full year EPS, we are upgrading the low end of our guidance range by $0.20 and the high end of our guidance range by $0.05 to a new range of $9 to $9.25, up 3% to 6%, reflecting our continued confidence that 2023 will be a strong growth year for Honeywell despite the year-over-year pension headwinds. Excluding these headwinds, EPS growth will be 9% to 12% up for the year. We still expect to meet our original free cash flow guidance of $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion in 2023 or $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion, excluding the net impact of settlements. So in total, we executed a strong first quarter with outperformance across all guided metrics and are raising our full year 2023 organic sales growth, segment margin and adjusted EPS guidance ranges. Now let's turn to slide eight, and I'll hand the call back to Darius for some closing thoughts before we move to Q&A.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Greg. In summary, we're off to a strong start to 2023, over delivering across the board versus our guidance, allowing us to meaningfully raise our full year guidance for organic growth, segment margin and earnings per share. Our value-creation framework is working. The macro economy remains uncertain, but we continue to grow our record backlog, and executing at it provides significant runway in the near term. Honeywell remains well positioned to outperform in any environment. Thank you to all of our Honeywell colleagues who continue to drive differentiated performance for our customers and shareholders. With that, Sean, let's move to Q&A.
A - Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Darius. Darius, Greg, Vimal and Anne are now available to answer your questions. [Operator Instructions] Liz, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa at JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Thanks, good morning.
Vimal Kapur:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
Congrats again, Vimal, on the change in your...
Vimal Kapur:
Thanks.
Steve Tusa:
I guess, your first call is going to be, I guess, the second quarter. But on that front, maybe give us some color on the sequential trends as far as earnings are concerned for the rest of the year, 2Q, 3Q and 4Q, just to kind of level set everybody after this pretty strong first quarter.
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So sequentially, as Greg gave you the full year view, we do expect the growth momentum to continue even though at a slightly different rate. Part of it is, we had a pretty strong quarter in PMT and HPT prior year, so we are dealing with the tough comps. So there is certainly going to be some revenue comparison issues there. Aero will be very strong. And SPS, as we guided, will be moderated performance over the rest of the year. So but overall, we remain confident on our new guide of 3% to 6% organic growth rate, and we'll work hard to perform on that. Greg, if you want to add anything?
Greg Lewis:
No, I think you hit it. I mean the second quarter is going to be really nice results, I think, across the portfolio, albeit we're just coming off of four quarters of significantly strong double-digit growth in PMT for four straight quarters, HPT at high single digits for three to four straight quarters. So -- but the underlying business performance going forward is going to be really healthy.
Steve Tusa:
Sorry. So what's the sequential performance for EPS? Should we think about that as kind of in line with normal seasonality, or…
Greg Lewis:
Yeah, when you look at our…
Steve Tusa:
…like how do we think about the phasing of EPS for the rest of the year?
Greg Lewis:
Yeah. When you look at EPS sales, I mean, we're going to be roughly in line with normal percentage of the year in those quarters. This year and last year, a little bit heavier in the back half. This year, a little less so, but it's not going to look out of the norm.
Steve Tusa:
What is the norm? Can you just remind us because it's been a couple of years of abnormal.
Greg Lewis:
Well, you're asking about many different metrics Steve. So it depends on which one you're talking about.
Steve Tusa:
EPS. EPS. EPS.
Greg Lewis:
We're -- I mean when you look at it right now, we're going to have a little bit of a heavier back end of the year. Fourth quarter will probably be bigger than second and third, but the second and third will be within spitting distance of one another round about.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot for the color.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Maybe I just wanted to try and understand, dialing in on the second quarter for a second. So you've got a smaller than maybe normal sequential sales increase. It doesn't sound like that's anything macro or demand-related. It's maybe more on supply, so any extra color on that? And also, it looks like you're guiding for sales to be up sequentially in Q2 firm-wide somewhat at flat margins. So is that just something around maybe Aero OE mix? Just any thoughts on that, please?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, Julian, if you actually look at the historical revenue step from Q1 to Q2, it's very much in line with what we've done historically. Last year was a bit of an anomaly given that it was more heavily impacted by some of our supply chain challenges. But if you look at this, the historical graduation from Q1 to Q2, it's very much consistent and in line with that, if you look at the prior year averages.
Greg Lewis:
Yeah. No, I mean, we've grown anywhere from 4% to 7% quarter-to-quarter sequentially. This guide has us right in like the 3% to 4% range. Last year, we had a really big step-up in PMT. It's a little bit less in Q2 this year. But again, very much within historical parameters. And from a margin perspective, again, last year, we went down in margin rates from Q1 to Q2. So our guide is solidly within our Q1 performance. I think at the top end, we're up 20 basis points. At the bottom end, we're down 20. So it's frankly right in the norm. So I wouldn't read too much into it.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks very much. And then just my follow-up would be around the SPS piece updated thoughts on that second half outlook, particularly the PSS portion, how are you looking at that in the second half on revenue versus warehouse? And if there's been any change in your warehouse growth or sales assumptions for the year? Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. So I mean, let's take this piece by piece. And in terms of PSS, I mean, we've actually seeing sequential improvement off of Q4. So we think that, that business is back on the rise, and we saw that sequentially. So I think that, that's very much consistent with our assumptions and is very much in line of our expectations. When it comes to IGS, that was -- that's still -- that market continues to be relatively soft. But having said that, our quote activity and our opportunity activity is significantly increasing for Q2, Q3 and Q4. Because as we look forward in the pipeline, that continues to get better and better. So we're cautiously optimistic that we're going to see much better order trends as we head into the last three quarters of the year.
Vimal Kapur:
Yeah. No, I think Darius put it quite well. Look, this is -- IGS revenue for this year is already locked given the long-natured of the business here, really working hard to secure good base of orders for 2023 so that we can print a good year for 2024 ahead. And we remain -- one thing I can assure, we're not going to lose share. So it's more on the market. And as market recovers, we will get our fair share of demand.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Mixed -- maybe just be a little bit clearer on what surprised to the upside. And it sounds like it's partly supply chain, but it also sounds like it's highly demand. So maybe just talk about that. We saw a pretty significant up-tick in accounts receivable on the balance sheet, which might indicate that March was perhaps pretty strong. So maybe just talk about that as well.
Greg Lewis:
Sure. Let me take that. So if you think about our guidance 90 days ago, we talked about really three specific risks that we were watching. One was China with Chinese New Year and concerns about whether everyone was going to go home and then come back and wind up with lockdowns in China. It didn't happen. Things turned out quite well. There was really no disruption in China at all. Second one was really, again, Aerospace and where we're going to get a substantial sequential improvement in output, and we did. We were up 20% in our output in Aerospace year-over-year, which was above the high-end of our guidance and was quite strong. And then the third one is PMT. And we talked about the fact that, in December, we had some challenges with the freeze in the Louisiana area with some of our factories there, and we had an outage early January, which we needed to shut down a plant and bring it back up again, and it came up quite well and in fact, on time. And after the plant was restored, it was operating at levels that were greater than before the outage even occurred. And so that's why what you're seeing is essentially PMT and Aerospace, in particular, drove probably over $100 million each, on the top-end of our own guide in terms of the revenue outlook. So those are things that we were conscious of and we're watching and managing where we could, and things turned out quite well. So that was really good. And then again, as you mentioned, accounts receivable goes up. As you recall, 50% of our revenues in any quarter in the last month of the quarter, we had a really strong revenue performance. ARR goes up, and we've got a lot of receivables here to collect in April, and I'm sure that will bode well for strong cash here in Q2.
Nigel Coe:
Great. Thanks Greg. I'll leave it there with one question.
Greg Lewis:
Yeah.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hey. Good morning guys.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Scott Davis:
And welcome, Vimal.
Vimal Kapur:
Yeah.
Scott Davis:
Guys, you announced this buyback is pretty darn large $10 billion is a big number. And we're hearing chatter from kind of other companies here and there that M&A is just starting to get into a little bit of a sweet spot where valuations are starting to make a little bit more sense, and PE is less competitive, of course. What -- how do you guys think about your pipeline of deals that's out there and the optionality and versus kind of the guide? I think of share count down kind of 1% ballpark means, you may not be going in and hitting the bid on that $10 billion right away. But how do you think about the ebb and flow of the buyback versus that M&A? And perhaps the big question there is, what's your backlog and pipeline look like? And I'll stop there. Thanks.
Greg Lewis:
Hey Scott, real quick, just what you saw with the $10 billion authorization, that is like what we always do. We work our authorization down to about a $2 billion range. And then we, frankly, almost as a matter, of course, re-up it to $8 billion or $10 billion. And so you should view that as us just doing our normal re-staffing of our buyback authorization to give us the flexibility that we always have. So there was nothing abnormal in that at all in terms of the cycle of the way we operate. But I'm sure Darius will talk about the capital allocation aspect.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. I mean, in terms of our framework, you've got to remember, we are holding to the framework of 1% minimum buyback per year on average. And we've done that. We've stuck to that. And I think that, that's very -- the $10 billion authorization continues to underpin that kind of an algorithm. So I think I wouldn't look too much or too little into it. They're just supportive of that. And we're going to continue to buy back shares as we see the price aggressively, and we'll do at least 1%. On the M&A, which I think is the more important question, is I think I've always said, there's time to be a buyer and there's a time to be a seller. I have not seen a better time, at least as I've been CEO, to be a buyer. I know you saw one deal we did this past week. I think that it's an opportunity for us to be much more active. The pipeline is probably better than it's ever been. And I think we've got some interesting bolt-ons that we're looking at that hopefully we're going to be able to close here in the next few months.
Scott Davis:
All right. Darius, just a natural follow-up. Would -- it's like quite a statement, never seen a better time to be a buyer. I don't think I've ever heard you say anything in that context or that bullish in your tenure. And then, would you consider going up in size? You just said bolt-ons, but perhaps something a little bit more larger in the pipe?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. I mean, I think, we said the bolt-on for us is up to $5 billion, $6 billion, $7 billion range. So I would say that, that's decent in size. The reason I'm more bullish is, look, the cost of money has gone up significant. I mean, you see the interest rates. And frankly, the competition is different. The competition for assets now is primarily strategic. A lot of the PE activity is not -- I wouldn't say, it's non-existent, but it's not as nearly as strong as it used to be. And I think it's smart to be a buyer or a seller in various cycles of economic conditions and interest rates. And I think right now, I think it's smart to be a little bit more aggressive on being a buyer.
Scott Davis:
Very encouraging. Thank you. I’ll pass it on, guys. Good luck.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you and good morning, everyone. Maybe bigger picture as well. Can you talk about what you guys are seeing, Darius, across the pricing portfolio? I think, Greg, you mentioned pricing contributed 6 points to organic growth of 8%, including SPS. How does pricing balance out and volume throughout the remainder of the year? And how do you see it playing across the segments?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, I think, you saw kind of a 6:2 [ph] mix as we move forward. I think, frankly, we're still projecting to be about a 4% price impact for the year. So, obviously, pricing is going to become a bit tougher in the second half of the year as we kind of lap some of those comps. But, overall, pricing is going to continue to be a significant value driver for our results, given the differentiation and the technologies that we have within our portfolio. So that's kind of how we see the setup, obviously, coming off of 6% and projecting 4% for the year if we expect something a bit lower in the second half. But that's all very much move in the algorithm that we expected for the year and actually gain confidence in that algorithm given our -- we raised both in the bottom and top end of our ranges. I don't know. And Greg, if you want to --
Greg Lewis:
Yes. No, I think you said that, this is not really that different from what we talked about, and we have positive price every quarter of this year. So no concerns in that. Again, we've talked about it for the last six, nine months. As inflation settles down a little bit, there are going to be pockets where it won't be as necessary as it was a year ago. And so, that's what you're seeing now.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Hey, good morning. And just a two-parter on kind of Aero OE. I mean it looks like you're making pretty good progress, as you stated and you acknowledged some supply chain issues. But I was a little surprised, one of your customers called you out by name yesterday. Just wondering if there's something Honeywell-specific that's hung up from a delivery standpoint, or you would just kind of point your finger further down the line to your suppliers as just kind of part one, if you could add any color there. And then just also one OE kind of incentive payments and the like, where do we stand for 2023 now? Is this still kind of a peak year for headwinds, or does some of that maybe move into 2024, if deliveries aren't quite what you thought they might be?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So let me kind of start with the first part of your question. I think as we look at our output, so range is depending upon whether it's avionics or some of the mechanical things, were up anywhere from 20- to 40-plus percent. So I think we're actually very pleased in terms of the output. Like, I can assure you that in terms of the bottlenecks, it's not Honeywell. It's not sort of throughput to our facility. So we have a lot of issues with our supply base as well and frankly, some of those being large public companies. I'm not going to sit here and call them out on a call like this. Frankly, it's our responsibility, and it's our job to deliver. And I'm not going to use somebody else as an excuse for us not delivering. That's our job to manage. And frankly, the earnings call is not the right place to actually have those kinds of discussions. So we're going to work at it. We own it. I know the supply chain in Aerospace is not perfect. It's getting better and it's getting better relatively quickly, probably even better than we anticipated. But there's work to do. And there's four or five layers of the supply chain. And what we're seeing and feeling flows down to our suppliers we're still getting some very inconsistent supply base. I mean, our decommit rate went from being 19%, 20% Q4 down to 15%, but 15% is still not good. But improving and we're making those improvements, and we've launched hundred -- and I mean, literally hundreds of people into our supply chain to assist our suppliers and, frankly, probably put more time and effort to be responsive to the needs of our OE base. And I don't know, Greg.
Greg Lewis:
Yeah, on the incentive side, we're not making any adjustment to our expectations as far as that is concerned. It's still very early in the year. As far as we know, OE deliveries are still going to be roughly in the range of what we had anticipated as we opened the year. And like you said, we expect this year is probably the peak. And then it's going to flatten out or come down slightly next year but still be relatively high. Should that shift left to right a little bit, we'll see. But at this moment, we're keeping our expectations as they were.
Vimal Kapur:
I think one point I wanted to add was the -- that the diversity of our portfolio in Aero is quite unique. We supply engines, avionics, navigation equipment, lighting, brakes, the list goes on. So due to diversity, our volume is growing overall, but there could be some category where the growth is slightly less versus others. And I think that puts us in a unique position on how we get viewed by our customers because they obviously want growth to occur consistently across all product lines. So I want to have that appreciation that our diversity is one of the unique factors compared to our peer group here.
Jeff Sprague:
Great. Thanks for that color. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning. So just want to understand Aero for my one question. I guess, as you think about the margins for the year, you guys talked about flat margins, but that started the year off down. And what's expected to improve as the year progresses? Is there a friction associated with the supply chain that's impacting the margin today? Because your aftermarket business is growing faster than OE. So just any color on like the -- what gets better in Aero from a margin standpoint as the year progresses?
Greg Lewis:
Yeah, sure. I mean think about it this way. The first and most basic one is volume leverage, right? We are very much in control of our fixed cost, and revenue is going to go up each and every quarter sequentially, and it will have a crescendo and probably the highest quarter in Q4. So just by that alone, we're going to get some volume leverage. So there's not like any big changes from one quarter to the next that I would call out from a mix perspective. Now, again, that can always fluctuate as time goes by. But the single biggest thing that you should expect is really around volume leverage. It's fairly simple.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Great. Good enough. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Darius, since this is your last call, I just want to say congratulations on your run as CEO. And look, all CEOs want to go out on a strong note, leaving the company in good hands. And I think this quarter speaks to that. So congrats.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. Appreciate that.
Deane Dray:
For my one question, on Intelligrated aftermarket, there was always this high growth in installations, and we are waiting to get that critical mass in the installed base to start to get to the aftermarket. Have you reached that point? And what's that mix going forward between OE and aftermarket? Thanks.
Vimal Kapur:
Yeah. So overall, our performance on aftermarket has been double digits for last couple of years, including this year. In fact, we are performing extremely well, I would say, in high-teens. So we are at a point, to your question on the mix now, two-thirds, one-thirds. I think we are going towards that mix now, which is a start. I mean, this business is 7, 8 years old. So if you roll the dice 15 years from now, the mix will be probably more in favor of aftermarket as we are -- experience in other parts of Honeywell. But it's trending, very frankly, better than our thesis, consistently north of 15%. And we are pretty pleased with that, and margins are pretty attractive.
Deane Dray:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna with Cowen. Gautam, your line is now open. Our next question will come from Chris Snyder with UBS.
Chris Snyder:
Thank you. So the guidance, at least at the midpoint, seems to suggest slightly better organic growth in the back half relative to Q2 and comes despite tough comps and maybe some macro concerns out there. So could you just maybe provide some more color on the subsegments or business lines where you think you could see better organic growth relative to Q2? And also, does this dynamic maybe reflect some Q2 conservatism? The prior commentary kind of said that Q2 seasonality is coming in below normalized levels? Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Sure. Again, what I would tell you is, Aerospace, we expect now to have some really nice sequential organic growth as the year progresses, which is it's going to be a big level of support for us overall. Back to 2Q of -- it's very much in line with kind of our historical trends. And so we feel good about the guided range that we're at. In terms of the back end of the year as far as PMT is concerned, I think we'll have a really strong back half there as well. SPS will get actually sequentially a little bit easier as the year goes by. So we'll probably hit the heights of our declines here in the first half, and the second half will get a little bit easier, and that will take a little bit of pressure off the overall portfolio. So I think we're going to see really nice growth throughout the portfolio in three out of the four businesses, and the easing of the SPS comps will help.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. And the other factor is that we're gaining more and more confidence in output out of Aerospace. I mean we're continuing to grow. It's the work that we've done in terms of mending the supply chain is producing results. I quoted some of the year-over-year numbers earlier. And we expect that progress to continue and even accelerate, particularly as we get into the back half of the year. So we're very confident in our outlook for the growth that we have and looking forward for signs and especially order rates for HPT to see what that looks like. Because obviously, our Q1 results there were also better than expectations, both in terms of revenue as well as orders. So we'll see how Q2 goes, and that may offer some further upside.
Chris Snyder:
Thank you. Appreciate that.
Operator:
Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Darius Adamczyk for closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Once more, I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. I valued our dialogue over the past seven years. Also want to thank the entire Honeywell family, including our colleagues, both present and past. We've built a tremendous company over the past two decades, and it's thanks to all your hard work and perseverance. It has been an honor to be able to lead this company. We delivered outstanding first quarter results. More importantly, I have the utmost confidence that we'll continue to do so in the future under Vimal's leadership with the typical level of operational rigor you've come to expect from Honeywell. This company's best days remain ahead of us, and we look forward to discussing this further at our upcoming Investor Day next month. Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please, go ahead.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Crystal. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's fourth quarter 2022 earnings and 2023 outlook conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis; President and Chief Operating Officer, Vimal Kapur; and Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Anne Madden. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Honeywell also uses our website as a means of disclosing information, which may be of interest or material to our investors and for complying with disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor our Investor Relations website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, webcasts and social media. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of the businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022 and discuss our 2023 outlook, including sharing our guidance for the first quarter of 2023 and full year 2023. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on slide two. The fourth quarter was another challenging one, with supply chain constraints and inflation headwinds still at play. But Honeywell's disciplined execution and differentiated solutions enable us to deliver on organic sales, segment margin, earnings and free cash flow commitments. Organic sales were up 10% year-over-year or up 11%, excluding the impact of the wind-down of operations in Russia, led by double-digit growth in commercial aviation, building products, advanced materials and UOP businesses, a testament to the underlying strength we are seeing across our end markets, particularly in long-cycle businesses. The fourth quarter was another strong one for our backlog, which grew to a new record of $29.6 billion, up 7% year-over-year and 2% sequentially due to strength in Aerospace and Performance Materials and Technologies. Orders were also a positive story in Aero and PMT, leading to a 2% organic orders growth and 6% sequential growth in the fourth quarter. The tailwinds we’ll continue to see in these two businesses gives us confidence in our 2023 outlook, which Greg and Vimal will share more detail about in a few minutes. Our segment margin expanded 150 basis points year-over-year, led by over 900 basis points of expansion in safety and productivity solutions as volumes improve. And we continue to stay ahead with the inflation curve through our strategic pricing actions. Excluding the year-over-year impact of our investment in Quantinuum, the margin expansion was 180 basis points. Free cash flow was $2.1 billion in the fourth quarter, with 125% adjusted conversion, down 18% year-over-year but delivering in line with our original guidance for the year. Capital deployment in the fourth quarter was $2.3 billion, including $1.4 billion of share repurchases, bringing our full year total to $4.2 billion in shares repurchased and exceeding our goal of $4 billion from our March Investor Day. For the full year 2022, we delivered outstanding results above the high-end of our initial guidance for segment margin and adjusted earnings per share, despite approximately $2 billion in year-over-year top line headwinds and constantly shifting macroeconomic conditions. We finished the year with 6% organic sales growth, 70 basis points of margin expansion and $8.76 of adjusted earnings per share, up 9% year-over-year and above the top end of our original $8.70 guide. Orders ended the year up 8% on an organic basis. And our backlog reached an all-time high of $29.6 billion. We generated $4.9 billion of cash in the year, 14% of our revenue. The appendix of this presentation contains a slide highlighting our guidance progression through 2022 as well as our performance against these guides. Capital deployment for 2022 was $7.9 billion in total, in addition to the $4.2 billion in share repurchases, which lowered our weighted average share count by 2.5%. We deployed $800 million to high-return capital expenditures and $200 million on closing the acquisition of US Digital Designs. Finally, we maintained our dividend growth policy, paying out $2.7 billion and raising our dividend for the 13th time in 12 years. As always, we continue to execute on our proven value-creation framework, which is underpinned by our Accelerator operating system. I am confident in the strength of our backlog and the tailwinds, we're seeing across our end markets, and I'm proud of our ability to execute and drive shareowner value to the current challenging environment. Now let's turn to slide 3 and to discuss an important development from the fourth quarter, which further improved our company's strength for the future. In the fourth quarter, we announced the final court approval of our buyout agreement with the NARCO Trust, providing the elimination of our funding obligations in exchange for our $1.325 billion cash payment to the trust. This liability has been weighing on our balance sheet since 2002, one of the numbers of legacy liabilities the company has been carefully managing. We recognized the charge from the buyout in the fourth quarter, and the cash outflow took place in January. Partially offsetting the impact of the buyout is the sale of Harbison-Walker International, the reorganized and renamed entity that emerged from the NARCO bankruptcy, which announced that and will be acquired from the Trust by private equity firm, Platinum Equity. We expect this transaction to be completed later in 2023, reducing the net free cash flow impact by approximately $300 million. This development represents a significant improvement in our financial strength. Specifically, it simplifies our balance sheet by eliminating our evergreen funding obligations, eliminates quarterly asbestos charges related to NARCO and extinguishes any further uncertainty on our company's financial health. Now let me turn over to Vimal, to discuss our fourth quarter results in more detail on slide 4.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to slide 4. As Darius mentioned, we continue to deliver on our financial commitments, despite a very challenging operating environment. In the fourth quarter, sales grew 10% organically with double-digit growth in three of our four SBGs
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Vimal, and good morning, everyone. Given the backdrop Vimal just shared, in total for 2023, we expect sales of $36 billion to $37 billion, which represents an overall organic growth sales range of 2% to 5% for the year. While we'll continue to drive pricing actions where needed to offset the impact of cost inflation, we expect more balance between the contributions of volume and price in 2022. Similar to last year, we believe the first half of the year will be slower as supply chains improve sequentially throughout the year and potential headwinds from the reversal of zero COVID policies in China are strongest in the first quarter. In Aerospace, the demand backdrop remains very encouraging in both commercial aviation and defense and space. In the commercial aftermarket, we expect continued flight hour growth, particularly in wide-body as international borders open and travel further normalizes to drive growth in air transport aftermarket sales. The policy change in China should provide added fuel to this dynamic. On the commercial OE side, build rate schedules among the OEMs are trending upwards year-over-year, leading to more ship set deliveries for Honeywell, driving revenue growth, but also translating into a corresponding increase in selection credits, a headwind to margins. In Defense and Space, we plan to convert our strong order book into sales and expect defense to return to growth in 2023 as the supply chain improves. Supply chain constraints, not demand, remain the gating factor to both commercial and defense volume growth in 2023, but we're encouraged by the improvements our team has executed in recent months, resulting in 7% output growth in 2022. The sourcing environment for electronic components in Aero improved over the past quarter, but the supply chain for mechanical components remains constrained due to skilled labor shortages among Tier 3 and 4 suppliers. We entered 2023 with Aerospace backlog levels that are more than 20% higher year-over-year, giving us confidence in our growth projections. For overall Aero, we expect organic growth for the year to be in the high single-digit to low double-digit range. While Aerospace will likely be our strongest top line grower in 2023, we expect only modest margin expansion year-over-year as increased volume leverage is largely offset by unfavorable mix due to increased selection credits in the commercial OE business. In Building Technologies, we're cognizant of the broader economic environment and expect private investment in non-res construction to continue to be impacted by increased financing costs. However, throughout 2022, we built a strong slate of orders, partially as a result of the supply chain environment that provides solid sales visibility and buffer for 2023. In addition, we believe that institutional investment will remain robust buoyed by government stimulus funds that have not yet been deployed, supporting key verticals such as education, airports and healthcare. We see the most significant sales growth this year coming from building projects and building management systems as we capitalize on a robust 2022 book-to-bill in these businesses. We also expect increased spot orders for our building services throughout the year as the supply chain normalizes, layering incremental demand in. For overall HPT, we remain cautious in the current environment, expecting our strong backlog to support us early in the year and anticipate low single-digit organic sales growth for 2023 overall. However, we remain very confident in our long-term framework for Building Technologies as much of our portfolio is aligned with secular trends of sustainability and energy efficiency. On the segment margins, we expect to carry the momentum from 2022 strong exit rate, resulting in year-over-year expansion for the full year. In PMT, we are set up to build upon an impressive 2022 and convert favorable macro conditions into another solid year with sales growth sequentially throughout the year. Backlog built through 2022 will enable another year of growth in Process Solutions led by Lifecycle Solutions and Services and thermal solutions. In UOP, improved comps as we lap the lost Russian sales headwinds will provide support to a business that already has potential for upside. Our Process Technologies business returned to growth in the fourth quarter and is poised to continue to grow at 2023, while catalyst shipments should remain robust throughout the year. Demand for new energy capacity to offset lost Russian supply will also be a tailwind, particularly for our LNG business. In Advanced Materials, growth will continue despite difficult comps, thanks to strong demand for our Solstice products and supply chain improvements. In addition to Solstice, our other sustainable offerings will benefit from legislation, such as the inflation reduction app and increased customer focus on environmental responsibility. Orders in our Sustainable Technology Solutions business have accelerated dramatically over the past two years, and we're expecting more of the same in 2023 as we continue towards our $700 million sales target by the end of 2024. In total, we expect PMT sales to be up mid-single digits for 2023. PMT margins should expand modestly as a result of improved volume leverage and continued pricing and productivity actions. Turning to Safety and Productivity Solutions. That will be the business most impacted by the macroeconomic environment in 2023. And Intelligrated, decreased investment in new warehouse capacity will continue to limit near-term opportunities in our long-cycle projects business with the trough and demand likely coming this year before returning to growth in 2024. However, our aftermarket services business has been growing at double-digit rates, and we expect that to continue in 2023. And productivity solutions and services, short-cycle demand softness and the distributor destocking will impact sales in the first half of '23, but we expect this dynamic to taper off and should see sequential improvement later in the year. In sensing and safety technologies, sales growth will continue in '23 after a strong finish to 2022. In total, we expect SPS sales to be down mid to high single digits for the year. From a margin standpoint, '23 should be another solid year for SPS, as we continue to benefit from improved business mix and drive our operational improvements. While 4Q '22 was a high watermark for the business and will not necessarily be the new standard moving forward, we believe high-teen margin rates are achievable in 2023. So we expect our overall segment margin to expand 50 to 90 basis points next year, supported by higher sales volumes, our continued commercial excellence efforts and productivity actions. Similar to last year, we expect SPS margins to expand the most, as we build on our operational improvements in '22 and continue to benefit from improved mix and cost structure in that business. For the year, we expect earnings per share of $8.80 to $9.20, flat to up 5% adjusted, despite an approximately $0.55 headwind from lower pension income. Excluding this impact, our adjusted EPS range would have been $9.35 to $9.75, up 7% to 11% adjusted. On the free cash flow front, we expect a range of $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion in 2023 or $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion, excluding the onetime $1.2 billion net impact of NARCO, HWI and UOP matters. I'll walk through the puts and takes for our '23 cash flow in greater detail in a couple of minutes. But first, let's turn to slide seven and walk through our EPS bridge for 2023. As you can see, segment profit will be the key driver of our earnings growth in '23, contributing $0.59 at the midpoint of our guidance range. Net below-the-line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of negative $475 million to $625 million, which includes capacity for $200 million to $325 million of repositioning, which is lower than the approximately $400 million we used in '22. For tax, we expect an effective tax rate of approximately 21% for the year. With these inputs below the line and other items, excluding pension, are expected to be up $0.05 per share year-over-year at the midpoint of guidance, primarily driven by lower repositioning and asbestos charges, partially offset by higher net interest expense. For share count, our base case for 2023 is that our minimum 1% share count reduction program will result in a benefit of approximately $0.15 per share, reducing our weighted average share count to approximately 672 million from the 683 million in 2022. As we previously communicated, we expect a large decline in pension and OPEB income this year, as a result of the increased interest rate environment. For the full year, we expect approximately $550 million of pension and OPEB income, down about $500 million from 2022, driving about $0.55 headwind to EPS. However, this is a noncash accounting item as our overfunded pension status will ensure that no incremental contributions are needed. We ended '22 with a pension-funded status of over 125%, as a result of diligent management and strong returns, a great position to be in for our employees and shareholders. In total, we expect '23 earnings per share to be in the range of $8.80 to $9.20, flat to up 5% year-on-year on an adjusted basis. However, excluding the impact of non-cash pension headwinds, our guidance would be a range of $9.35 to $9.75, up 9% at the midpoint. Now let's turn to slide 8 and talk about the drivers of our free cash guidance for 2023. As we've outlined in the bridge, our 2023 free cash flow story can be characterized as strong operational performance offset by a few discrete non-operational items. Income growth is the largest driver of free cash flow, and we expect to make further progress this year on working capital as the supply chain normalizes. We expect 2023 free cash flow, excluding the settlement of the legacy legal matters we discussed earlier, to range between $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion, up 8% year-over-year at the midpoint as we had previously spoken about. Accounting for the settlements, we are expecting free cash flow for 2023 in the range of $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion. Now let's turn to slide 9, and we can discuss our guidance for Q1. As we highlighted earlier, we entered 2023 with record backlog, providing a solid foundation for the first quarter. Supply chains remain constrained, however, we anticipate modest sequential improvement in volumes. We're closely monitoring the impacts of Zero COVID policy changes in China as the country reopens and eased its COVID restrictions and are wary of potential Q1 impacts. However, we anticipate that these policy changes will be a net positive for demand as we progress throughout the year and will result in a robust second half in China. Looking at the segments. We expect sales growth in Aerospace in the first quarter as the demand environment remains robust, and we execute on our strong backlog. However, the rate of growth will be more subdued than our full year expectations as we anticipate 1Q will be the most supply constrained for the quarter. In Building Technologies, we anticipate modest organic sales growth in the first quarter as we work through our backlog and the supply chain continues to heal. We see the strongest sales growth in building projects, followed by increased sales of fire. In PMT, we expect another quarter of year-over-year growth in 1Q. We expect that growth to be once again led by advanced materials with Process Solutions, the laggard, though still with strong year-over-year growth. We're expecting, sorry, we experienced a disruption in one of our PMT plants that will cause some unplanned downtime, though that is embedded in our guidance. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, short-cycle and warehouse automation demand softness will offset growth in Intelligrated aftermarket services and the sensing part of our sensing and safety technologies business, leading to a decline in year-over-year sales. However, we expect another strong margin performance in the high teens. So for overall Honeywell, we anticipate sales in the range of $8.3 billion to $8.6 billion in the first quarter, up 1% to 5% organically. We expect margins in the range of 21.4% to 21.8%, up 30 to 70 basis points year-over-year as we remain diligent in our price/cost management and benefit from favorable business mix. The net below the line impact is expected to be between $165 million to $210 million of an expense with a range of repositioning between $80 million and $120 million as we continue to provide capacity to fund our transformational efforts. We expect the effective tax rate to be in the range of 21% to 22% for the quarter and average share count to be approximately 675 million shares. As a result, we expect first quarter EPS between $1.86 and $1.96, down 3% to up 3% year-over-year or up 5% to 10%, excluding the year-over-year impact of lower non-cash pension income. And lastly, while the first quarter is already historically our lowest from a free cash flow perspective, the settlement payments related to the aforementioned legal liabilities were paid out in January, and we expect cash from operations to be a net use in 1Q. Overall, while we maintain a prudent level of caution, we're confident in our operational abilities and our portfolio of differentiated technologies. Our portfolio is well positioned for this stage of the cycle, and we'll continue to innovate and invest in the businesses to support long-term growth. Now with that, I'll turn the call back over to Darius on slide 10.
Darius Adamczyk:
2022 was another year of both challenges and progress for Honeywell. Despite another host of macroeconomic and geopolitical difficulties, we attacked the challenges we faced head on, we over-delivered on our financial commitments. While 2023 brings new -- including potential recession scenarios, leading to uncertain demand in short cycle with a record $30 billion backlog, a robust balance sheet and one that has been further derisked due to the NARCO settlement and the ability to deploy capital organically and inorganically, I remain optimistic about the future of Honeywell and believe the company is well positioned to drive innovation to solve some of the world's most challenging problems. One last item before we move to Q&A. I'm pleased to announce that our 2023 Investor Day will be held on May 11 in New York City. At this Investor Day, I, along with our other members of the senior management team, will provide an update on Honeywell's business strategy, exciting new growth opportunities and our long-term growth algorithm. We look forward to sharing more about Honeywell's future data. With that, Sean, let's move to Q&A.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Darius. Darius, Greg, Vimal and Anne are now available to answer your questions. We ask you please remindful of others in the queue by only asking one question. Crystal, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Your line is open.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Just wanted to start -- my question would be around the first quarter outlook. So maybe two parts on that. Firstly, just on the segment margin assumption. Are we assuming within that, that you have a sort of 200 or 300 points increase that SPS year-on-year and then maybe down in Aerospace and PMT on margins? Just wanted to check that? And then also in Q1, should we expect orders to be down after they were up kind of low-single-digit in the second half of last year? Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Julian. First off, we don't guide orders, so we're not really going to comment on that specifically. As it relates to the margin outlook you highlighted, I think you're in the right neighborhood. Again, we don't guide our individual margin rates for each of the segments. But to expect that Aero might be down in 1Q is probably a reasonable expectation. And as I highlighted, SPS is going to be on the top end of our margin expansion all year long, frankly, given all the work that, that team has done, adjusting their cost structure for the realities of the sales environment that they've been in as well as, as we talked about before, the reductions in Intelligrated sales are actually not painful from a margin standpoint. They actually help given the margin profile of that business. So, I think your instincts are right, but we're not going to be specific on that guide.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. And maybe just to add to that, I mean, I think SPS results, particularly in Q4, really exemplify our -- the strength of our operating systems and how quickly we adjust to market conditions. As you saw, they posted record margins. And that's not by accident. That's by very pronounced actions that -- they were facing some challenges on the revenue side. They adjusted their cost structure. They maximized our aftermarket services business, which resulted in a really nice margin profile. That's an example of how Honeywell operates, which is when we see challenges, we act upon them early and make sure that we still print very good results despite some market headwinds.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
Can you just give a little more color on how much the OEM incentives are, what kind of headwind that is? And then are you guys on track for the longer term target? What's -- any color on the trajectory and timing towards that? I think you said historically or last year was, I don't know, 29%. Are you guys still on track for that?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean we absolutely are. I think that we're very committed to that number. As we look at the outlook for this year, we're very much within our operating algorithm that we provided last Investor Day, sort of -- if you just take the midpoint, we're sort of at the lower end on revenue, but we're above our margin profile. But in terms of our commitments to our long-term gains, it's very much on track. The OEM credits are significant as a headwind. And Greg?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So -- and think about that -- that is tied to Boeing's delivery, specifically of airplanes and incentives that we have for -- with the airlines who are taking those airplanes and that is going to be a multiyear realignment. Today, they've promised in excess of their production rate in terms of deliveries. And so that's going to -- that's what's going to move the needle. It's going to impact our sales. When we print our OE sales growth rates, you're going to see that as an offset, and it's obviously a margin headwind. So, it's measured in the hundreds of millions of dollars. We're not going to be precise about what that is. And again, there's going to be variability around that, depending on the actual delivery performance of the OEs to the airlines themselves.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. And maybe just some closing two points, we do expect modest margin expansion in Aero. And we're very committed to the goal we gave you at the last Investor Day.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research. Your line is open.
Scott Davis:
Good morning guys and Anne.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Scott Davis:
I was wondering if you guys could walk through a little bit of what your cost inflation assumptions are and maybe a little color around kind of that -- the price/cost environment. Just in context, are we kind of done with the inflation part of the cycle? Are your suppliers still raising prices on you guys? And are you still raising prices on your side? And just a little bit of color per segment, I think, would be helpful. Thanks. And I'll pass it on after that.
Vimal Kapur:
Scott, as a headline, I would say that inflation is moderating. It's not going away. So we are not losing our eye on our model on driving positive price/cost. And -- but on a trend basis, there is some deflation in some commodities. But labor costs still high, energy costs are kind of more on a standstill basis. So that's our entry assumption that it's on a -- more on a reducing trend but not getting -- moving away. So our pricing targets have been adjusted. We still want positive price/cost model into our P&L. So we're not going to go away from that execution we did in 2022. But we are also sensitive that with the market being tighter compared to 2022, we want to also protect our volumes. And to that extent, we are watching how we want to adjust our price/cost algorithm. So that's kind of the overarching principles. They vary within the businesses a little bit, but directionally, that's our guiding principles. Maybe, Greg, if you want to add anything.
Greg Lewis:
Yeah. I mean all I would say is that means rather than double-digit price increases, we're planning on mid single-digits, maybe low single-digits this year with inflation in that same neighborhood.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. And I think that's important is that we do -- we just don't do pricing blindly. I mean we do watch demand versus pricing versus balancing our inflation. And we try to do that thoughtfully such that it's not just blind increases. We also have to be mindful of market share, demand, et cetera. And we've got a set of analytics to do that. I mean this is the power of Honeywell Digital, which we've been implementing in the last three to four years. Our level of visibility accuracy is actually really good, and it's a new set of muscles we've developed actually in the last 1.5 years as we face this inflationary environment.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi. Good morning, everyone and thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Maybe if I could ask about supply chain improvement. You have a little bit of improvement in working capital year-over-year on supply chain. Can you frame the total impact in 2022 of supply chain? And how do you expect it panning out in 2023? You called it out in Aerospace with the Tier 3, Tier 4 suppliers having labor issues. Where else are you seeing it? And how do you kind of expect it to improve across the segments?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. Let me kind of -- there's sort of not one way to describe it, but I'll give you a few metrics which indicate sort of the direction. I mean, I think the punchline, the summary punchline, it is improving, and we saw that. I mean we saw a reduction in our past two and three out of the four SBGs. The only one the past dues went up in Q4 was Aero. But we also saw very robust demand in Aero. So I think you have to offset that. Is that an issue? Is that an opportunity? And I would tell you that our Aero output on a year-over-year basis was up around 15%. So that's actually a pretty good outcome, which also tells you that we're migrating in the right direction and given that the past due is reduced and the other one. So let me kind of split the discussion on two segments. One, for semiconductors, it is definitely getting better. It is improving, and we see that sort of really moderating towards a normal state before the end of this year. That's sort of what we saw. We saw some clearing of the past dues. We still have some left, and that's how we see it. In Aero, it's also improving. The pace is likely going to be slower than what it was in semiconductors. Our level of decommits in Q4 was below 20%, which was a low for the year. Every year -- every quarter prior to Q4, the level of decommits from our supply base was over 20%, actually, under 20%, which is also a good sign. So we see a slow and steady improvement as we move throughout the year. That's sort of our expectation for the supply chain.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just wanted to --
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Nigel Coe:
Hi. Good morning. Just wanted to dive into SPS a bit more. So if we think about -- maybe, first of all, can we just dive in a bit deeper into what happened with the PPS. I know there's been some channel headwinds there, but that's a big change from what we saw last quarter. And then, when we think about the 2023 outlook, it looks like Intelligrated down 15%, 20%. Is that representative of the market, or are you being more selective in terms of the projects that you've been accepting and therefore converting? And then on top of that, I know that's only one question, but it looks like margins this year is high teens, maybe 20% range. When we normalize the mix beyond this year, are we going to be above 20%? Any color there would be helpful.
Darius Adamczyk:
Can you repeat the last one, because I didn't quite get the last question there, Nigel?
Nigel Coe:
Yes. The last part of the one question is, when we normalize the mix to Intelligrated PPS in 2024, 2025, are we at 20 and above margins?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think that one was going to be -- it's probably too early to tell, but what I will tell you is that, for -- we already basically demonstrated we can get to 20% margins in SPS in Q4. So the target hasn't changed. In terms of what's happening overall with the business, again, Intelligrated is -- the markets are down. I mean, we see it, the warehouse and distribution segment is down. There's an overbuild that occurred in the year 2020 and 2021. The markets are absorbing that capacity. We do expect an uptick in orders and return to growth in 2024. We actually are encouraged by the pipeline that's starting to form. And at the same time, we're also are being a little bit more selective in terms of margin profile and so on. And we have an algorithm in terms of the kinds of orders that want. So it's a little bit of both. PSS has been a bit softer than in the prior. We got to remember that we're coming off of record orders, particularly in the first half. But, overall, we expect to see a fairly strong robust level of business in the second half of this year, and we still have a backlog to draw from. So -- and I don't think there's -- there was nothing in SPS in Q4 that was out of expectations. It was actually incredibly consistent. And frankly, I was very encouraged by the margin rate, and that team has done a nice job in really managing to the cards they're dealt from a revenue base, using our Accelerator operating system to really deliver a strong financial result, even with some revenue headwinds. I don't know, Vimal, if you --
Vimal Kapur:
So, IGS, I think, I just want to add a comment on IGS. I think top line challenge will be there in 2023. But we are focused on margin in this business. Our aftermarket service business is growing double digits for last several years. That trend will continue in 2023. In fact, we want to do everything possible to continue to drive that at a higher rate and other margin improvement opportunity. But better operating efficiency, executing projects better and faster is going to be another focus area. So while the volumes are down, we are constantly looking at margin expansion strategy in Intelligrated business.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question please. Our next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Andrew Obin:
Hi. Yes. Good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
Just a couple of questions on PMT. So first, on decarbonization, I mean, clearly a big revenue driver. But are you seeing any delays in process and fund disbursement at the federal level because we, sort of, heard about just shortage of staffing there? So that's question one. And second, if you could just talk about visibility on advanced material strength because that seems to be just get better and better every quarter? Thank you.
Vimal Kapur:
So on the -- Andrew, on the decarbonization, I would say, at least I see much stronger trend in orders in our Sustainable Technology Solutions business as we had forecasted, IRS at least helping. We had a pretty strong performance in our sustainable aviation fuel part of the portfolio. We see that further strengthening in 2023. But in addition, now we see activity happening in carbon capture and hydrogen space. So we see more active projects where customers are making decisions. So we remain very optimistic on good performance by STS business in 2023. On advanced materials, I would say the momentum on Solstice continue. We see more application adoption in newer areas. As an example, heat pump is becoming another exciting area where we are developing new applications. And that business is all about expanding new applications and expanding new geographies. So we see that trend. There are pockets in advanced material where there is an economic headwind on residential side. So that's a smaller part of the business, but there are headwinds. There are pockets in electronic materials, where there's a server-related demand in PC. So we supply some products in that. But on an overall picture advanced materials has a strong momentum. And you said it rightly, the momentum will continue in 2023 also.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Maybe just to add a couple of things and a couple of specific numbers. I mean our orders in Q4, particularly in our flooring business, were very, very strong, I think, double-digit strong. Our LST business is strong. UOP is well-positioned for the year. Sparta business was extraordinarily strong on the acquisition we made in 2021. So all-in-all, I think it was a very strong orders quarter. As we pointed out on our track, if you remember, some of the very, very unusual cold weather that we faced around the Christmas time caused us some challenges in some of our process operations because, frankly, they're just not built to operate in 5-degree weather. That's not what you typically see in Louisiana in December. So all-in-all, I think that this is -- our AM and PMT business is well positioned. Good orders growth and strong performance should be expected.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question please. And our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague from Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Hi. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just a follow-up on Aero margins from me, if I could. Appreciate the color on the OEM incentives. Just trying to think about the next couple of years also, if you can give us some directional help, right? It's not hard to imagine those incentives -- continue to escalate the next couple of years as Boeing delivers more, but I think you might be getting some help going the other way in business jet or other parts of Aero. So can you just give us a sense of, is 2023, kind of, peak headwind for incentives?
Greg Lewis:
Yes.
Jeffrey Sprague:
How it might play out in 2024 and 2025?
Greg Lewis:
Yeah. Great question, Jeff, and your – again, your instincts are on – this is the bubble, right, because they – Boeing, in particular, was not able to deliver jets when they were grounded. And so that acceleration is going to go up and then come back down again. As we see it right now, it looks like 2023 is going to be the top and then it starts coming back down. But again, that's going to depend entirely on the pace of those deliveries. But it ought to be, let's say, reoriented back with deliveries in our view by 2025, for sure, and maybe into 2024. So this is going to be a temporary headwind, and then things will realign back where deliveries and shipments come back into line. And so therefore, our P&L will become more aligned.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. I think that's exactly right. I think that, this is probably an unusual 2023 headwind. But even the headwind, we expect to modestly expand margins. But I think the most important thing that's missing here is, we're very excited about the future of Aerospace. I mean, the orders are up, backlog is way up. I mean, we think the next three years will be very exciting for Aero.
Vimal Kapur:
Supply chain is…
Darius Adamczyk:
Supply chain is getting better. Our ISC teams have really demonstrated unlock of a lot of capacity. And I think there's nothing other than to be excited for the next three years in Aerospace. It's – I'm very confident in the backlog position, and it's going to be a really nice period for that business.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question will come from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citigroup. Your line is open.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
So you mentioned capital deployment in line with three year $25 billion plan for 2023, I think, which would mean another year somewhat similar to 2022. You deployed almost $8 billion of cash. Obviously, out there, you've got National Instruments conducting a strategic review, as I'm sure you know. If Honeywell were to consider to be quite a bit larger than you've done in the past there – so we know you have the financial capacity to do it, but you've been disciplined when you've done M&A and really stuck to more bolt-ons. Can you remind us of your return hurdles to do a larger acquisition? And what, if any, strategic requirements you have to make a larger acquisition?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. I think good question. Yeah. So I mean, obviously, we have a balance sheet that's strong. And over the last two years, we have, let's call it, roughly around $15 billion-plus to deploy it based on our 2025, over the next two years, so we have the capacity. But I'd just point out a couple of things. Number one is, we are disciplined in our approach. That's point one. So point two is, where our controls and automation and sustainability and digital company. And point three is, we typically don't do hospital acquisitions. So we are interested in doing more M&A – smart M&A in 2023. I think you should expect that at some point. But it's going to be thoughtful. It's going to be acquired at a price where we have a lot of confidence in generating shareholder value. And it's going to be something that we can – is truly strategic and fit what we do as a company.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. And our next question will come from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi. Good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Good morning. Thanks Darius for taking the question. I understand you guys have above-average backlog right now, obviously, some longer-cycle businesses as well as supply chain. Any way we should think about backlog conversion this year, or where do you guys think maybe backlog should end or hopefully end if you're able to start getting more product out the door? I think teasing out the demand environment versus the supply chain environment has been a bit of a trick here for a while?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. Maybe I'll start and I'll turn it over to Vimal. So first of all, we feel very good about the backlog, because if you look at the backlog where we are in totality, it's about $3 billion to $4 billion more than what I call a normal state. If you go back two, three years, if -- we can debate whether it's in that $3 billion to $5 billion more than normal. So the backlog position is very strong. From a long-cycle perspective, Aero, especially PMT, very strong position. Even in the short-cycle businesses, which are predominantly HBT and SPS, we've got strong backlog through at least the first half of this year. We do expect an uptick as we go into the second half of this year in terms of some of those businesses because we have some unusual pull-forward order activity in the first half. So especially as we get into the second half of this year, we don't know this yet, but we're cautiously optimistic it can actually be one of those unique periods where the short cycle and long cycle are turning at a really good pace. We have much more confidence in the first half based on the strength of the long cycle, and we expect an uptick in the second half in the short cycles too. Vimal?
Vimal Kapur:
So maybe do in-person on that in addition, as we talked earlier, we do expect supply chain performance to get better both on the Aero supply chain and semiconductor constraint, which will mean that we can burn our past dues/backlog better than our -- what we did in 2022. And we also expect that our project businesses will also execute on our backlog on a more determined basis, because they also faced a lot of headwinds on supply chain constraints in 2022. Where the back will land, it's just indirectly answering the question of orders forecast, and we don't guide that. But we remain optimistic. We are going to get our fair share of demand in the market that we can commit. And as long as market performs, we will perform in line with the market.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question please. And our next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I want to ask that last question, maybe slightly differently, because guidance is a little bit wider than normal. And so perhaps maybe under what scenario would you guys see yourselves coming in below the midpoint of the guidance, the EPS guidance for the year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. I mean, I think -- first of all, let me -- there's a couple of questions. And the first one is why is the guidance wider than normal, because I think we would probably admit that in terms of the economic scenarios this year are probably a bit wider than most people guess. And you have anything ranging from a soft landing out there to a deep recession, and I've heard opinions anywhere in that range. So I just think from a highway perspective, and this is, I think, consistent of how we guide every year is -- and probably this year more than ever. We try to have a little bit of a wider range, which is indicative of the uncertainty around the economic conditions. And I would say if I were compared to this year versus 2022 or 2021, it's probably more uncertainty rather than us. So that's the reason for the wide range. In terms of the range, it's out, sure. At the lower end – at the lower end, it's probably -- it probably means that tougher economic conditions. The second half is the economic conditions turn worse, the short cycle is worse than we expect at the top end. It's a bit more of what we hope is the expectation, which is some of the order activity turns. Short cycle becomes more robust in the second half and China returns to growth. I mean we -- Q1 -- we actually think Q1 in China could be challenging because of the lifting of the COVID restrictions, Chinese New Year and so on. And we embedded that in our guide. But we actually think that second half in China could actually be quite strong. And if that comes to fruition, that sort of points to the upper end of our guide. So that's where we kind of have a bit of a wider range. And by the way, we did guide a wider range like this historically it could. Since it's not that much wider and 2022 was a little bit narrower. But I think it's just -- it's as simple as it's indicative of the economic uncertainty that I think many of us are facing. And there's a wide range of educated guess as to...
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I think we'll know a lot more come June, right? I mean as we talked about, I think we feel pretty good about where we are from a backlog position. And no one really knows what the level of activity in the economy will be. I mean we've had some good things. The European winter has been more mild than people thought, and Europe has held up relatively well and -- versus what some have figured it could be. But I think, as you said, we feel really good about where we are right now. And we'll continue to take that temperature as we go through the first four to five months a year.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. And our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. And start with congrats on getting to the finish line on the NARCO Trust. That was a really long road. And I know you had to get all the approvals. So nice to see.
Anne Madden:
Thank you, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Yes. I know it's been a long road. But Honeywell was one of the first to pursue that trust, and you've got all the approvals with the plaintiffs and so forth. But great to see it derisked. And just a follow-up on the last question on the geography. Did anything really surprise you in the quarter in terms of the geographies? It seems like Europe -- was it just the weather that's not as dire on the energy side? But what were the surprises on the geographies? And what's baked in for 2023 major geographies? I know you have a little bit on China, but if you could round that out, that would be helpful. Thanks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Maybe I'll start and Vimal will add any further commentary. I would say, no major surprises, I mean, in terms of how we ended up. I mean, Europe was softer, particularly the UK was really soft in Q4. That probably stood out for us in Europe. But then as we looked at December, the exit rates weren't actually bad. So November and October were a bit weaker, December exit rates were better. In terms of the overall business performance, I mean, it was actually incredibly consistent with what we guided. I mean, we guided -- we came in roughly at the middle of our range, a little bit better on operating margin. I mean we guide for a reason, and that's sort of where we ended. And by the way, thank you for acknowledging the NARCO. I mean, I think as you kind of read the articles and some of the other companies out there, I can't understate how important or overstate how important it is to eliminate liabilities from your balance sheet. And when you can do that permanently with confidence, it substantially derisks the future of the company. I think maybe just didn't get as much offense as I think it should have because it was a huge deal. It hit up a lot of bandwidth. But I am thrilled to have this liability reduced off the balance sheet. Vimal, if you…
Vimal Kapur :
So I think the only thing I'll add is that I think everybody is aware of commentary on US and Europe, so I won't repeat it. But high growth regions represent a very large part of Honeywell revenue. We do expect China to have a strong growth in 2023. We are cautious in Q1, but very optimistic for the year. But other high growth region markets, we are confident on good growth. Middle East, we have good backlog and a very strong pipeline for orders. India, we remain very optimistic. Turkey, Central Asia, we remain very optimistic, ASEAN. So overall, that part of the word should offset some of the headwinds we see in Europe, and that's what we are kind of dialing in into our planning process.
Operator:
Thank you. That does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Darius Adamczyk for any closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. We delivered strong fourth quarter results and continue to navigate effectively multiple uncertainties with the typical level of operational rigor you've come to expect from Honeywell. Our future is bright, and we look forward to discussing this further at our upcoming Investor Day in May. Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy. Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Liz. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Vimal Kapur. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Honeywell also use our website as a means of disclosing information, which may be of interest or material to our investors and for complying with disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor our Investor Relations website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, webcasts and social media. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements, which are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions, and we ask you to interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the third quarter of 2022, share our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2022 and provide some preliminary thoughts on 2023. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on Slide 2. Our outstanding discipline and rigorous execution enabled us to meet or exceed guidance for all third quarter metrics amid ongoing supply chain constraints and inflation headwinds. We exceeded the high end of our third quarter adjusted earnings per share guidance range by $0.05. While navigating a challenging backdrop, we delivered organic sales growth of 9% year-over-year or 10% excluding the impact of the wind down of operations in Russia led by strong double-digit growth in our Advanced Materials, commercial aerospace and building products businesses, a testament to our ongoing resiliency and our rigorous operating principles. We expanded segment margin by 60 basis points year-over-year to 21.8%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range by 60 basis points, with margin expansion in all four segments as we remain ahead of the inflation curve through continued commercial excellence. Excluding the impact of our investment in Quantinuum, the margin expansion was 90 basis points year-over-year. Our backlog continues to be strong, up 9% year-over-year in the third quarter, led by aero, PMT and HBT as our demand profile remains robust. Orders were down 1% on a reported basis, but up 2% organically year-over-year with Aerospace and PMT orders up double digits signaling that these end markets continue to be resilient despite the risks of a broader economic recession. Excluding the impact of orders, which we have talked about extensively, orders in the remainder of the portfolio were up 8% reported or 11% organically year-over-year. Our record level 2022 orders in backlog will support our growth trajectory to the fluid operating environment. Cash was another bright spot with $1.9 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, more than double a year ago. A strong result that leaves us well positioned to deliver our full year free cash flow commitment. In terms of capital, we deployed $1.2 billion to share repurchases, dividends and capital expenditures. We leveraged the strength of our balance sheet to opportunistically purchase over 2 million shares throughout the quarter, reducing our average share count to 680 million shares and continue to execute on our commitment to buy back at least $4 billion in share in 2022. Looking forward, I remain encouraged by the strength we're seeing in many areas of our portfolio as we continue to execute our rigorous and proven value creation framework underpinned by our accelerator operating system to drive outstanding shareholder value. I am proud of Honeywell's ability to overdeliver in another quarter amidst a challenging macro backdrop. Now let's turn to Slide 3 to discuss recent senior leadership additions. In September, we announced that will succeed Vimal Kapur as President and Chief Executive Officer of our Performance Materials and Technology segment, enabling Vimal to transition to full -- to his new role as Chief Operating Officer for Honeywell. Lucien joins Honeywell from Eastman Chemical Company, Global Strategy business operations and financial performance as Executive Vice President. Lucien began his career at Eastman as a chemist and had a variety of leadership roles at the company. His diverse global experience building business both organically and inorganically and deep knowledge of the chemical process industry is valuable for leading PMT, which is in a unique position to enhance sustainable technologies portfolio to help drive the energy transition while also taking advantage of our strong position in traditional energy markets. We also announced a new addition to our Board of Directors in September. was elected to join the Board as an Independent Director and will serve on our Audit Committee. Robin currently is an advisory consultant for , where he was CEO from 2016 to 2022. During his time as CEO, Robin led the transformation of Wood to an oilfield services company into an integrated engineering and consultancy company spanning a variety of growing end markets and geographies. He's extensive industry experience, including in sustainable technologies such as carbon capture and hydrogen. Robin's perspective will be instrumental as we further advance Honeywell's leadership in the energy transition and broader ESG transformation. We're shocked and saddened to learn that our Board member and friend, , passed away on Sunday, October 23. He's provided invaluable contributions to our company over the last 14 years. His perspective, tenacity and friendship will be greatly missed and of course, our heartfelt and deepest condolences are with this family. As part of his Board service, George was Chair of our Audit Committee. Scott Davis, our Lead Director, will serve as the interim Chair of the Audit Committee of the Honeywell Board until his successor is named. Next, let me turn to Slide 4 to discuss our other exciting recent announcements. Earlier this month, we announced a new innovative ethanol to jet fuel processing technology that allows producers to convert ethanol-based feedstock to sustainable aviation fuel. The aviation industry is challenged by limited supplies of traditional feedstocks and ethanol offers producers a widely available, economically viable new feedstock. Depending on the type of ethanol feedstock used, Honeywell ETJ process can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% on a total life cycle basis compared to petroleum-based fuel. In addition, we opened two separate capacity expansion for our Solstice business this quarter. We recently opened the first large-scale manufacturing site for Solstice Air, a near zero global warming potential medical propellant for use in respiratory inhalers. Solstice's air technology is up to 99.9% less GWP than propellants currently used in inhaled respiratory medicine. AstraZeneca is currently working to incorporate our Solstice air technology into their full inhaler portfolio pending regulatory approval. Elsewhere in our Solstice portfolio, we opened a plant in India, has begun manufacturing our Solstice ZD solution, which uses in blowing agents for foam insulation and refrigeration liquid for chillers. Finally, last week, we published our first quarterly Environmental Sustainability Index, a global report showing sustainability decision-makers sentiment on progress, year ahead plan and meeting 2030 goals. 2/3 of the S&P 500 has set emissions reductions targets of some kind and the index sheds light on past progress and future expectations towards these goals. For a long history of achievements of sustainability, Honeywell's unique position to provide this free public service. The initial survey found that approximately 97% of organizations plan to increase current year budgets in at least one sustainability category, and Honeywell remains committed to helping our customers achieve their sustainability goals. Now let me turn it over to Vimal on Slide 5 to discuss our third quarter operating performance in more detail.
Vimal Kapur:
Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. As Darius highlighted, we delivered strong third quarter results despite a tough operating environment. Disciplined adherence to our best-in-class Honeywell value creation framework provided us with operational agility to meet or exceed our guided financial metrics. Third quarter sales grew by 9% organically or 10%, excluding the wind down of our operations in Russia. The performance was driven by double-digit organic growth in HBT, PMT and Aerospace. Demand trend remains strong with backlog near record levels. However, ongoing supply chain constraints continue to temper overall volume growth. We did see modest sequential improvement in volume causing our positive backlog to decrease in SPS, HBT and PMT as we benefit from our reengineering effort to qualify alternative parts and our proactive partnering with distributors and alternative suppliers to ensure priority sourcing. Our readiness efforts in aero also enables single-digit sequential improvement in output. We continue to reap benefits of Honeywell digital transformation investments made over the past few years. We leverage these digital tools to drive commercial and operational actions, which enabled us to stay ahead of inflation curve and help us expand segment margin by 60 basis points year-over-year to 21.8%. We are also starting to see some benefits in inventory from our digital and process improvements in planning and sideline. Now let me share a few comments on third quarter performance by business. Aerospace sales for the third quarter were up 10% organically year-over-year as commercial aviation sales grew double digits for the sixth consecutive quarter despite ongoing supply chain challenges. In fact, if we had held past due backlog flat sequentially for the quarter, we would could delivered an additional 9% of organic sales growth. Commercial aftermarket demand remains robust with continued flight or recovery leading to increased payer shipment and repair and overhaul sales. Both air transport aftermarket and business and general aviation aftermarket sales grew over 20% organically in the quarter. Commercial original equipment sales increased 30% year-over-year including approximately 50% growth in our air transport original equipment, driven by increased shipset deliveries to these customers. Defense volumes were down in the quarter, but we believe 2022 will be trough for this business as our elevated backlog position and an expected increase in defense spending support recovery in coming years. Aero segment margin expanded 40 basis points to 27.5% as our commercial excellence effort more than offset our cost inflation. Building Technologies was our fastest-growing business in the third quarter with 19% organic sales growth. Sales of our fire products and building management system remains strong, resulting in 23% organic growth in Building Products portfolio, the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. In Building Solutions, the sales grew 13% as project volume increased despite ongoing part shortages. While supply chains have not fully unlocked and significant material constraints remain, we did see sequential improvement in volumes for the third consecutive quarter, a sign that supply chains are moving in the right direction. Backlog in our Building Projects and Services business remains robust, roughly flat to the second quarter and 7% above third quarter 2022 levels. Orders were down 3% reported, but growing 3% on an organic basis, with continued strength in U.S. and China, somewhat diluted by softening in part of Europe and Asia. Our agile commercial actions were a net contributor to both top line and bottom line growth in the quarter and segment margin expanded 60 basis points to 24.1%. Performance Materials and Technologies grew 14% organically in the quarter despite an approximately 3% headwind from Russia. Advanced Materials grew 33% organically, leading PMT for the third consecutive quarter as we continue to see favorable demand, specifically in our Marine Products business. UOP sales increased 6% in the quarter, returning to growth and overcoming a 7% year-over-year headwind from lost machine sales. Growth in UOP were led by sales -- led by gas processing and refining catalyst demand and sustainable technology solutions offset sales growing triple digits year-over-year. Process Solutions grew 6% organically on continued demand for life cycle solutions and services and Thermal Solutions. Sparta Systems grew over 40% for second consecutive quarter and continues to be earnings accretive. Orders for PMT grew double digit in the third quarter, led by approximately 40% growth in orders in Advanced Materials and approximately 20% in UOP underpinned by strength in gas processing orders. Segment margin expanded 40 basis points in the quarter to 22.6%, driven by commercial excellence, offsetting cost inflation. As expected, Safety and Productivity Solutions sales decreased 4% organically in the quarter. We saw double-digit growth in advanced sensing and gas detection portion of our Sensing and Safety Technologies business, and Productivity Solutions and Services also grew organically in the quarter. However, this growth was offset by expected softness in warehouse automation and lower volumes in personal protective equipment. Intelligrated will be a key area of focus for me as we continue to improve our operations and drive margin expansion in that business. Our strategic pricing and productivity actions, along with favorable business mix, brought segment margins for SPS in its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2018, expanding 250 basis points year-over-year to 15.7%. Honeywell Connected Enterprises continues to underpin the growth we are seeing across our portfolio. Recurring revenue grew over 10% in the quarter and SaaS growth was approximately 40%. Part a system was once again stand out within CE, growing over 40% in the quarter with cyber and connected building also seeing double-digit organic growth. So overall, this was a great operational result for Honeywell and our SPD performance was a key driver for our third quarter adjusted earnings per share growth. Adjusted EPS for the quarter grew 11% to $2.25, which exceeded the high end of our guidance range by $0.05. On cash dynamics, we generated $1.9 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, up 108% year-over-year. The increase was driven by a positive contribution from working capital due to strong collections and continued focus on matching our supply to our demand, which enabled us to reduce inventory for the first time in 7 quarters, an encouraging example of the results that Honeywell is capable of delivering despite the supply chain challenges and expected lead times we have been battling in recent quarters. The Honeywell playbook continues to deliver outstanding results and these operating principles, combined with our attractive end market exposure and differentiated portfolio of solutions will allow us to maintain the resiliency for quarters to come. Let me turn it over to Greg to discuss third quarter earnings per share in more depth and provide an update on our 2022 outlook.
Gregory Lewis:
Thank you, Vimal. Let's turn to Slide 6, and we'll unpack our EPS story a little bit further. In the third quarter, we delivered GAAP earnings per share of $2.28 and adjusted EPS of $2.25, which was up $0.23 year-over-year despite a $0.05 foreign exchange headwind as the dollar continued to strengthen throughout the quarter. Increased segment profit, driven by our strong commercial execution provided an $0.18 uplift year-over-year. A lower effective tax rate, 22.1% this year versus 22.9% last year, provided a $0.03 benefit, including a $0.05 tailwind from a onetime discrete change in German tax law. Share count reduction, driven by progress towards our share repurchase commitment from our March Investor Day drove a $0.06 year-over-year tailwind to EPS. We saw a $0.04 headwind from below-the-line items, primarily due to lower pension income. EPS was $0.03 higher than adjusted EPS due to a positive adjustment related to our wind down of our business in Russia. So overall, we delivered another strong quarter with results at or above our expectations, demonstrating our ability to operate seamlessly through challenging economic conditions. So now let's turn to Slide 7. We can talk about our fourth quarter and full year guidance. While a number of challenges persist in the current operating environment, we're entering the fourth quarter with a very strong demand profile. Since we provided our initial 2022 guidance in February, we have battled supply chain constraints, encountered unprecedented inflation, contended with geopolitical disruption and experienced rapidly rising interest rates. At each turn, our rigorous operating principles have enabled us to continue to deliver. As you saw from the 3Q bridge, the ongoing strengthening of the U.S. dollar has driven materially higher foreign currency impacts and has been a significant headwind to our guidance, which we have consistently offset at the EPS level. For our 4Q sales guidance, we expect to be in the range of $9.1 billion to $9.4 billion, up 10% to 13% on an organic basis or up 11% to 14%, excluding the 1 point impact of lost Russian sales. We now expect full year sales of $35.4 billion to $35.7 billion which represents a decrease of $100 million in the low end and $400 million on the high end from our prior guidance, incorporating greater foreign currency impact. However, we're raising the low end of our organic growth range now at 6% to 7%, increasing the midpoint versus our prior guidance and narrowing the overall range. Excluding a 1 point impact of lower COVID-related mass demand and 1 point impact of lost Russian sales, organic growth range would be 8% to 9%. The difference between our reported and organic sales growth guidance is 3 points, driven entirely by foreign currency translation. To dimensionalize this further for the full year, on a year-over-year basis, we expect $1.1 billion of sales headwinds from foreign currency, which compared to our original guidance from February is approximately $750 million of incremental headwind, a substantial challenge, which, as I mentioned, we've overcome on EPS. Moving to our segment margin guidance. We expect the fourth quarter to be in the range of 22.8% to 23.2%, resulting in year-over-year margin expansion of 140 to 180 basis points due to timing of high-margin catalyst shipments in PMT, stable business mix and productivity in SPS and increased volume leverage in HBT. For full year 2022, we are upgrading our segment margin expansion expectations by 30 basis points on the low end and 10 basis points in the high end to a new range of 21.6% to 21.8% or 60 to 80 basis points of year-over-year expansion. Our rigorous fixed cost management and disciplined price cost actions remain key elements of our operating playbook, helping us to drive margin expansion. Excluding the 30 basis point 4Q and full year headwinds from Quantinuum, we expect margins to expand 170 to 210 basis points in 4Q and 90 to 110 basis points for the full year. Now let's take a moment to walk through fourth quarter and full year expectations by segment. In aero, we anticipate demand across our businesses to remain strong, leading to sequential sales growth in the fourth quarter. The growth trajectory will largely be determined by the -- of our supply chain recovery, which we anticipate will be modest. Both commercial aftermarket and commercial OE should see another quarter of double-digit sales growth year-over-year in 4Q as flight hours and build rates continue on their path to recovery. In defense, we view the third quarter as an inflection point, leading to sequential improvement in 4Q to close the year as demand remains strong and modest improvements in the supply chain will allow us to deliver greater volumes. Orders in defense and space are up approximately 5% year-to-date, including high single-digit growth in the third quarter. So we've built a very healthy backlog to support sales growth as we lap similarly supply-impacted comparison period. Our full year expectations for Aerospace are slightly improved on a stronger third quarter, and we now expect full year organic sales to be up mid-single to high single digits year-over-year, with modest declines in segment margins as a result of OE mix . In Building Technologies, we expect continued sequential improvement in volumes to lead to another quarter of double-digit organic sales growth year-over-year. Our backlog for Building Products remains well above normal prepandemic levels, supporting sales growth as the supply capacity improves. Modest improvement in supply chain enabled a sequential drop in pass-through backlog in the third quarter and we expect the same in 4Q. We anticipate strong growth in building projects for the fourth quarter as our projects business has grown sequentially each quarter this year, an encouraging indicator of post-pandemic recovery. For overall HBT, we still expect double-digit organic sales growth for the full year and increased volume leverage should allow for continued sequential segment margin improvement in the fourth quarter and healthy expansion for 2022 overall. In P&C, the favorable outlook in our end markets supports a strong fourth quarter with sales up sequentially from third quarter and year-over-year. In Process Solutions, we expect growth to be supported by continued demand for thermal solutions and processes controls. In UOP, increased refining catalyst reload demand will support growth and provide margin benefit. However, the loss of Russia will continue to be a headwind in the fourth quarter. Advanced Materials will continue to outperform in the fourth quarter due to strong demand across the portfolio. Thanks to a strong third quarter, we now expect sales for overall PMC to be up double digits for the year, an upgrade from our outlook last quarter of up high single digits and we expect segment margin to expand both sequentially and year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead for FPS, we expect to see continued growth in the advanced sensing and gas detection portion of our sensing and Safety Technologies business, where demand indicators remain favorable and our backlog is robust. Warehouse automation demand will remain soft in the fourth quarter as customers push new warehouse capacity and investments to the right. So we continue to be encouraged by the bottom line benefits of our improvements in operational efficiency and our focus on higher-margin aftermarket services, which we expect to continue growing double digits. We still expect demand for warehouse automation to trough in 2023 and our long-term outlook for the business remains positive. Our short-cycle productivity solutions and service businesses continue to deal with the impact of supply chain shortages and has seen some demand moderation, which may result in sequentially lower sales in 4Q, but we expect our differentiated technology to allow us to continue to outperform against our peers. While we remain confident in the medium-term growth rate in SPS, short-term headwinds persist, and we still expect SPS sales to decline mid-single digits in 2022. However, we expect to see strong margin expansion both sequentially and year-over-year in the fourth quarter as a result of shifting business mix and our continued operational improvements. Turning to our other core guided metrics for overall Honeywell -- net -- impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of negative approximately $60 million to positive $40 million in the fourth quarter and negative $125 million to negative $50 million for the full year. This guidance includes a range of repositioning between $86 million and $136 million in 4Q at $375 million to $425 million for the year as we continue to fund attractive restructuring projects and properly position Honeywell for a good financial outcome in . We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 19% in the fourth quarter at approximately 22% for the year, and the average share count to be approximately 676 million shares in 4Q and approximately 683 million shares for the full year, reflecting our commitment to repurchase at least $4 billion of Honeywell shares in 2022. As a result of these inputs, our adjusted EPS guidance range is between $2.46 and $2.56 for the fourth quarter, up 18% to 22% year-over-year. For full year EPS, we are upgrading the low end of our guidance range by $0.15 to a new range of $8.70 to $8.80, up 8% to 9%, reflecting the confidence in our ability to more than offset foreign exchange headwinds of $0.19 year-over-year and $0.08 versus our initial guide from February as well as absorbing ongoing macroeconomic risk. We still expect to meet our original free cash flow guidance of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion in 2022 or $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion, excluding the impact of Quantinuum. So in total, we are raising the midpoint of our full year 2022 organic sales growth, segment margin and adjusted EPS guidance ranges while absorbing headwinds of $1.1 billion in sales and $0.15 in adjusted earnings per share versus our initial guidance from lost Russian sales and incremental FX, a strong indicator of our ability to successfully deliver results in a fluid operating environment. Details on our full year 2022 guidance progression and FX impacts can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Before turning back to Darius, let's turn to the next page and discuss our preliminary thoughts for 2023. While the macro backdrop signals another year of volatility, we believe our historical execution through multiple downturns demonstrates our ability to move quickly and decisively to protect margins, drive growth, ensure liquidity and position Honeywell to deliver in any environment. Our rigorous operating principles and favorable end market exposure will help us remain resilient with commercial aerospace recovery continuing, upcoming capital reinvestment in the energy sector and increased sustainability and infrastructure spending. We have a strong setup that will drive growth in sales, margin and earnings in 2023. We expect organic growth in aero, PMT and HBT due to record level demand in backlog in 2022 in our long-cycle businesses. In fact, both of our largest businesses are seeing double-digit orders and backlog growth, which will headline growth and profitability in 2023. This will be offset by lower demand in warehouse automation volumes which we believe will trough next year. We expect supply chain dynamics to improve gradually but remain constrained versus prepandemic levels. With these dynamics in mind, let's look at each of our businesses. In aero, we expect the demand picture to remain robust with increased flight hours, particularly a recovery in widebody and increased build rates among aircraft manufacturers, which will support growth in our commercial aviation business tempered only by the pace of supply chain healing. We also anticipate a return to growth in divestment space on increased defense budget and elevated backlog and an improving supply chain. In HBT, stimulus fueled investment in institutional markets as well as elevated backlog levels from this year's supply constraints should provide resiliency into 2023, regardless of the macro environment. Many of our offerings are aligned to key secular themes such as energy efficiency and decarbonization, and we expect the verticals we serve to remain strong on balance throughout next year. In P&C, we expect to continue to capitalize on the growth we have seen in 2022. Backlog built this year will drive growth in Process Solutions, LNG capacity expansion and improved comps as Russia headwinds fall off will support growth in UOP and improvement in semiconductor supply among customers and continued demand for Solstice products will enable advanced materials to have another strong year. Sustainable Technology Solutions should also provide growth as the inflation Reduction Act supports new SaaS and carbon capture opportunities. For Safety and Productivity Solutions, decreased investment in new warehouse capacity and potential recession impacts in our short-cycle businesses will provide headwinds in 2023. However, we have a strong portfolio with differentiated solutions that will allow us to compete regardless of the macro environment. Operational improvement actions that we've already begun implementing and shifting business mix will allow us to expand margins in '23, even if revenues decline year-over-year. So overall Honeywell, 2023 margins will benefit from the continued volume recovery on a streamlined cost base, anticipated pricing tailwind, flight hour improvement in aero and mix shift in SPS towards higher-margin businesses. We'll continue our investments in R&D and growth-oriented CapEx as we remain keenly focused on creating uniquely innovative, differentiated, recession-proof technologies to address the world's toughest process technology, digital transformation and sustainability challenges. We expect our spend on repositioning to begin to normalize lower. However, that EPS benefit will be more than offset by significantly lower noncash pension income in a rising interest rate environment, which likely results in a higher discount rate and lower asset base next year. This accounting headwind is a noncash item as our overfunded pension status will ensure no incremental contributions are needed which is a great position to be in for our employees, both former and current and our shareholders. We have significant balance sheet capacity for meaningful M&A and expect a favorable deal environment going into '23 which supports our commitment to accelerate capital deployment. Overall, the resiliency of our end markets and demonstrated ability to operate under dynamic circumstances gives us the confidence that we can deliver a strong financial performance in '23 including overall sales growth, margin expansion, adjusted EPS and free cash flow growth despite the environment. We'll provide more specific inputs in our annual outlook call once we close the year. With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Darius to discuss our dedication to environmental excellence.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Greg. Let's turn to Slide 9 and talk more about the aspirational approach we are taking to our ESG commitments. ESG is more than just an initiative for Honeywell. It is a common thread that ties our businesses together and help us shape the future of the company. . At a corporate level, we have set aggressive targets to reduce our impact and protect the environment. We've reduced our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by over 90% since 2004. Committed to set a target for Scope 3 emissions, the science-based targets initiatives, we have pledged to be carbon neutral in our facilities and operations by 2035. Our world-class manufacturing sites go above and beyond our own strict requirements with 17 sites achieving ISO 50001, the global energy management standard for establishing, implementing, maintaining and improving energy management. In this segment, a broad portfolio of ESG solutions help our customers lower their environmental impacts as well. We're driving the next evolution of energy through sustainable aviation fuel, both through traditional renewable feedstocks, using our Ecofining process technology and now with ethanol feedstocks using our new ETJ process technology, reducing emissions at manufacturing sites and improving worker safety of gas cloud imaging technology that can quickly identify leaks. We're supporting the circular economy through our Honeywell Aerospace trading business, which takes retired planes and recycles used parts, reducing landfill volumes and providing quality certified parts to customers. We're improving occupant well-being, and energy efficiency in office buildings for our innovative indoor air quality offerings. You can find out more information about Honeywell's environmental impact reduction and innovations in ESG technologies to our recently published 2022 ESG report, which is available on our Honeywell Investor Relations website. Now let's turn to Slide 10 for some closing thoughts before we move into Q&A. We're executing on our value creation framework with the rigor you can expect from Honeywell. We met or exceeded our third quarter guidance for all metrics despite ongoing external difficulties, and we raised the midpoint of our full year organic sales and adjusted earnings per share guidance as well as increased our segment margin range, fully absorbing a series of higher-than-previously anticipated negative impacts, including FX. I am encouraged by the strength we are seeing in many areas of our portfolio, and I remain steadfast regarding our ability to deliver differentiated results in 2023 and through this cycle. Thank you to my Honeywell colleagues for your unwavering drive to deliver in this challenging environment. With that, Sean, let's move to Q&A.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Darius. Darius, Vimal and Greg are now available to answer your questions. [Operator Instructions]. Liz, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa at JPMorgan.
Charles Tusa:
Just on Aerospace. What is the outlook for margins in the second, maybe in the fourth quarter and then into next year? Pretty strong result despite OE picking up and defense hasn't really turned yet. So maybe just a little more color on aerospace margins as you head into next year from that perspective.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. I think our view on margins is pretty consistent. I think we'll -- fourth quarter will look similar. Could be up 10 or 20 basis points. Could be down 10 or 20 basis points, something like that in the quarter as we continue to unlock the supply chain. It's a bit early to be providing guidance for next year, but I would expect we're going to continue to be managing through the growth that we're seeing in OE. We have an investment portfolio. As you know, we talk a lot about the R&D investments we're making in the business. Aero is not the biggest grower of our margin expansion, as we've talked about. And I think that's going to remain pretty consistent into next year, too.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. And maybe just to add a couple of things, Steve. I think it's always done a great job expanding margins in a very difficult environment. And frankly, they have the toughest pricing environment out of any of our businesses. So they've done a great job. As we look forward to next year, there's a lot of puts and takes. I mean, the mix will get tougher, some credits that we have to issue. So the OE growth is not obviously a favorable mix scenario. Now to offset that, the miles travel in the aftermarket business, we don't expect as robust air miles next year as we do this year. However, it's offset by the fact that we do expect more wide-body miles next year. And as you know, the aftermarket opportunity of wide-bodies to narrowbodies are roughly 3:1. So all in all, we expect a solid year. The backlog at all-time records continues to grow. I think aero is positioned for a great year in '23.
Charles Tusa:
Great. And then on SPS next year, you mentioned substantial margin expansion, but how do you kind of put that in the context of the long-term target?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean I think it's too early. We're certainly not changing our long-term target. If anything, next year will be helpful to get into our long-term target. I think we've signaled some of the softness in the warehouse automation and I do think '22 will be the bottom, and the business will grow from that going forward and show good margin expansion in '23. Exactly what it's going to be is difficult to -- at this point, but we're certainly not changing [indiscernible].
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Maybe two questions for me. I'll just wrap into one. First, just on the comment about deal environment improving. Is that sort of a general comment, given just maybe bid-ask spreads kind of normalizing in this sort of tape? Or do you see it actually more active pipeline? And secondly, just on the whole pension dynamic. I get that it's noncash, but should we expect that maybe you dial back restructuring or something in 2023 to maybe offset some of that EPS headwind you're dealing with?
Darius Adamczyk:
So let me maybe kind of start with the first one and I'll turn over to Greg for the second one. On the first one, I mean, the short answer is a little bit of both as we do think sort of the valuation is becoming much more appealing which is driving an improved pipeline, which is driving more activity. Now I think reality does have to set in with sellers because obviously, everybody wants to value their business what it was 12 months ago, not what it is today. So sort of we're kind of fighting some tailwinds and headwinds. I don't think the environment is going to dramatically change in the next 3 to 6 months in terms of valuation. So that's why we think '23 could be still a very appealing environment. We're trying to and we are improving our pipeline. And I can tell you that we're out there, but we also have to acquire properties at the right value point, particularly given today's environment uncertain. I'll just tee up the second one. And I'll turn it over to Greg. I mean, yes, the pension headwinds will be substantially higher than they are this year. Whether or not we do more restructuring is a TBD item, frankly. But I just want to emphasize something. We have an overfunded pension plan. We don't anticipate any cash contributions no matter what happens. And this is a bit of kind of a nothing item. So that's sort of -- I just want to put in the right content.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. Yes. No, that's right. And the pension headwind is large. I mean, it could be approaching $0.70. That, as you probably know, doesn't get finalized until the end of the year, and we'll snap the line on interest rates at that point and discount rates, and we'll know what the overall pension asset has done during the course of the year. But it's going to be meaningful, but it's, again, noncash, and as Darius mentioned, we think we'll probably come down a little bit in repo, but not nearly enough to offset the order of magnitude that noncash pension income will put out that.
Darius Adamczyk:
And one last comment here, Jeff. As you noticed in sort of our outline for Q4 and the year, we're going to be at the upper end of our repo number that we provided for guidance, which means we're really preparing the business for sort of a little bit rougher environment in some of our businesses, not all of them because of [Technical Difficulty] well positioned and HBT will do okay, and we've got some challenges that we talked about in SPS. So we're basically doing a lot of that kind of work ahead of time, and we're pulling in a lot of our restructuring activity to 2022. Q4 will be a robust quarter, and that's all meant to position the business for strong '23.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Sorry, and maybe just a two-part question as well. First part, just on orders. I think you said they were up low single digit in Q3. So a decent slowdown from Q2. Any regional business to call out driving that? And then the second piece would just be your 2023 preliminary thoughts, margins are up 100 bps this year, ex-Quantinuum for the year as a whole. Doesn't look on Slide 23, like -- sorry, on Slide 8, like there's a big Quantinuum headwind in 2023. So with easing supply chains and some top line growth, do you think a similar sort of margin performance could be repeated next year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think I'll answer your second one first, which is we -- it's really to -- earlier to tell Julian, I think we're going to work through that. I think all I can tell you is we're going to expand margins. That, you can count on. How much? Unfortunately, you're probably going to have to wait until the end of January or early February, whenever we issue our Q4 results and guidance for '23. On your former question, I just would like to point out a couple of things. If you exclude the impact of Intelligrated, and was a very big bookings quarter last year, it's high single-digit growth for bookings. So just keep that in mind. So I'm actually pretty happy with the outcome. That's a strong outcome and it's still up low single digits, inclusive of Intelligrated. So I think that's a good outcome. As I look at sort of regions and so on, as you would have expected, China was a little bit softer in Q3. There were some spots in Europe on the bookings that were softer, particularly in HBT, not a big shock. Those were a couple of soft spots. On the flip side, North America was strong. Middle East was strong. There was kind of a balanced mix, some puts and takes. So really nothing dramatically different than our expectations . Warehouse automation, we expect it to be down. It was. We expect the North America to be strong. It was. We expected some soft spots in Europe. There were. So all in all, generally pleased with not just the revenue outcome, but really the orders outcome as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
I just saw your Q. It said price was up 11%. It's just literally twice the group average. Is there anything in your portfolio kind of thinking that would be skewing that a little bit on the higher side and maybe accounts for some of that? I'm trying to think like the project businesses, I would think are hard to get that type of a price. So maybe just a little bit of color on where you have the most price or the least price and maybe some of the puts and pulls there?
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. As Darius highlighted, I think the most difficult spot for us has been in Aerospace for sure. And we actually -- we've done better than you probably would expect in the long-cycle businesses going and repricing the backlog because we have seen inflation there. So we have had some good success in our projects businesses going back and getting price. The products businesses are definitely the bigger driver of all of that, as you would imagine. And so that's, I would say, PMT, HBT, SPS are all having very strong pricing power in the products businesses in particular.
Darius Adamczyk:
And I would just add, the algorithm going forward is probably going to be a bit different. I mean, as we look into '23, we're probably not going to enjoy this much of a change from price and we'll probably get Q3. Q4 still we expect to be relatively strong. But the algorithm kind of changes in '23. I mean, Q4 will probably gain some very, very modest volume leverage, that's what we're coming on and much more volume leverage next year, probably a little bit less from price. So kind of how we make the year and how we grow margin expansion for '23 is going to be different. That's -- the supply chain has been frustrating, but it is slowly improving. I mean, we dropped our pass-through backlog in HBT, SPS, PMT, granted in aero a bit of a tougher problem. But even if you look at aero and if you look at our outlook in Q3, it was actually up slightly versus Q2. And normally, I'm kind of -- if you take a look at the averages over the last 5 years, Q3 output is about 4% to 5% lower in Q2. So there is some incremental benefit coming through in the supply chain. And we expect that to continue. So our algorithm for value creation will be different next year.
Scott Davis:
That's great color. Good luck, guys. I appreciate.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Just my question on defense and space. Just relative to peers, just seems to be weaker. And just how should we -- what's the best correlation for this business? Is it a specific platform program, just how to model it versus the budget because I think it has been lagging the peers. And then part two for my question is, what's happening with R&D tax credit? I think there was talk that you could get some cash back. Where did that end up?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So let me kind of unpack both of those. Unfortunately, there's no simple rubric that I can give you for defense and space because we have...
Andrew Obin:
We tried, yes.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, because we have such a broad scenario. And I think if you look at programs like hypersonics, T55, those are some of the helicopter engine programs. Those are obviously all good for us. You've got to remember, there's -- this obviously wasn't our best quarter in terms of defense and space. But we do think this is the bottom. Our backlog went up and it went up substantially. Our orders were up high single digits in defense and space. And we actually think that this is the trough, and we expect growth in defense and space for '23, if you want some early color on that. So we've kind of seen -- we've seen a bit of a turn in the corner in terms of defense and space. Our back -- long-cycle backlog was up double digits this quarter. So we're kind of optimistic in terms of what's going to happen in defense and space going forward. I've obviously been a disappointment this year, year-to-date, but we really believe this is the bottom. On the R&D tax credits, until we see them, we're not going to call it. As you know, we've been probably the only, or at least one of the very few companies that took that out of our cash outlook at the initial consensus back in January. I mean that hurt us to the tune of $400 million. We've stuck with that, and we've proven to be right so far. Now what's going to happen in the lane duck session in November and December, I think that's, frankly, anybody's guess. And anybody that thinks that now it's going to get through, I don't know. I think -- I personally think it's a coin flip. It could go either way. We certainly hope it does. But if it does, our cash outlook for '22 is going to look a lot better. So that's kind of where we are.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Just so I'll keep it to one question. But maybe just clarify, the pricing very, very strong. Advanced Materials being a disproportionate driver of that? Just curious on that. But on SPS next year, I think we all understand the word dynamics. You called out Project Solutions is a bit weaker into fourth quarter. How do we think about weak warehouse, probably weak spending environment in '23 versus supply chain sort of pent-up demand as we go into '23 for the PS portion of the portfolio?
Vimal Kapur:
So let me start with the pricing in Advanced Materials. Absolutely, we got strong pricing because we have a differentiated product line. And that proves our focus on new products and differentiated position. But across the board in PMT, our pricing has been strong also in other segments, too. So the PMT pricing growth is not only Advanced Materials story. It spreads across Process Solutions and UOP segment also. SPS question, Darius, I'll let you...
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So for SPS, I mean, I think on the PS' portion, it's been softer. That's -- we're lapping some very, very difficult comps. We have been sort of record volumes and orders in Q3 last year, nothing unexpected. It's probably a little bit better than the market. And it sort of dialed into our algorithm going forward. What I will tell you is that our backlog is still relatively strong. I mean, granted we've liberated some of that, but our backlog is still at an elevated position. The other thing I would tell, which was also a good sign is that sort of the channel inventory days of supply in North America actually dropped in Q3, which is always a good sign. So all in all, it wasn't the most robust quarter there, but not different than our expectations.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie:
Darius, you guys have talked about $20 billion, $24 billion to $27 billion of potential capital deployment opportunities. I'd be curious to hear, as you're kind of thinking through the M&A environment, size of deals that you're looking at or could be looking at for the portfolio? And then secondly, you did talk about Quantinuum as a potential like strategy to offload that piece of your business sometime over an 18-month period. I'm just curious whether the environment has kind of changed things at all just given the volatility that we've seen with stock action?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Let me maybe start with the second question because that one -- yes, I mean the short answer is that the market is not particularly receptive to plays like Quantinuum right now. So when we will do something there really depends on the condition of the stock market. But I mean, look, the stock market is not having a great year. We all know that. But it's -- that's not going to stay that way forever. So I don't know that I would necessarily back off some kind of an 18-month time frame where we might do something with -- different with Quantinuum. So -- because I do think the market is going to get better. I mean we're in a tough environment, if we believe the market is 6 months ahead of the economy. We do expect the market to get better going forward and the plan for Quantinuum hasn't changed. So I guess short story. And I think we've been an 18-month time frame from now. I still think that that's very much doable in terms of doing something different with that business. So I hope that fully that answers that question. What was your other question?
Joseph Ritchie:
Yes. Just the other question just on the size of deals that you're working on at this point?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I would just say that probably the sweet spot for us continues to be sort of in that $1 billion to $5 billion purchase price. We're not wedded to it. I mean, one of the things that -- and I mentioned this on the prior earnings call is that I probably would stay away from sort of the tiny deals unless something is very, very, very strategic because it takes up a lot of energy, and I'm not sure it moves the needle. So I think we're going to be probably inching up in terms of the size of the deal. I never say that mega deals are impossible, but they're probably not likely.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
Just one follow-up on pricing, and then I'll ask my other question. Just kind of going back to Scott's point on how strong your pricing has been. I guess, it's been an unprecedented environment, obviously. And is there a risk that pricing in some categories would have to decline if deflation continues or moderation in commodity prices continues? And then secondly, what's the path back to free cash conversion of 100% plus? I suspect that this will probably take some time because it's taken some time for inventory to build.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. So in terms of the risk that pricing declines, I mean across a massive portfolio like we have, I'm sure there'll be spots where that may be true and what we keep looking at is our elasticity demand to make sure that we're not destroying demand. So -- but broadly speaking, we do expect positive pricing next year. As I said, inflation is not going down, it's moderating. It's still at an elevated level. It's just kind of leveled off to some degree. So that's what I would say, not a risk that pricing declines broadly speaking, but I'm sure there'll be pockets where that may be true. In terms of free cash flow back to 100%, we've talked about that ratio, frankly, is not a very helpful one. We think more about it as a free cash flow margin, and we talked about our mid-teen kind of a range, and we're confident that we're going to be able to deliver around that. So the 100% free cash flow, I mean, it's probably going to be some time before we get there, but that's not really our objective. We're really looking at a healthy mid-teens free cash flow margin as the right barometer for us as a company.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think you see it in our outlook for next year. We expect to grow free cash flow next year, roughly -- sort of roughly in line with EPS, excluding the impact of pension, which is going to be a major headwind. So -- and I think if you look at our performance this year, we are still retaining our original free cash flow despite substantial headwinds. But I think that this is a really important point that I would like to just emphasize because I think we're one of the few, if not the only company out there that hasn't actually taken the free cash flow number down for the year. And we faced some substantial headwinds this year. I mean if you think about just since our consensus since our outlook call in January, we got about $0.15 in EPS between Russia and impact of FX on EPS. And about -- on a year-over-year basis, about 1 point -- $1 billion of revenue headwinds. So -- and on a year-over-year basis, EPS impact between Russia and FX is closer to $0.30. So I think what we really need to be talking about is how much we're actually raising our outlook for the year that we're maintaining. And I don't know that that's widely understood. And I think it is differentiated.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Darius, I wanted to ask you about PMT and Vimal as well. We've seen some major reactions in oil prices with news around price caps in Russian oil and OPEC production cuts. Can you maybe talk about what the volatility in oil prices is doing to near-term order activity in PMT and as you think about the longer-term potential for the business across LNG, battery technology and the sustainability portfolio?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So our business, as we mentioned during Investor Day and other events that we are much less linked to upstream. We are much more linked to downstream segment in PMT. So the volatility in oil price does determine customer decision on how they want to spend capital based on the returns they will get. What we have seen there is that investments are slowly getting better. We clearly see investments getting better in the sustainability side of the portfolio. We continue to roll more and more offerings in that segment. So that's how I will see linkage on the oil price. Speaking more broadly of the PMT portfolio, look ahead, we remain confident of a good growth year for PMT in 2023. That is supported by the capital growth to a certain degree, sustainability investment, but also we're going to carry stronger backlog for Process Solutions. And as it's a long-cycle business, that will convert in 2023. So overall, we remain quite optimistic on the PMT performance for the next year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Just a question on backlog. And Darius, you touched on it a few times in terms of this working down of past due. But if I look on Slide 8, it does look like there was a tiny sequential downtick. I'm just wondering that as supply chains free up here, are you seeing any sort of air pocket where folks are realigning lead times to what they need versus needing to go out much further? And any comment on kind of maybe core backlog versus some of this past due stuff would be helpful.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean you're right. I mean there was a tiny tick downwards in our path to backlog. It went down in PMT, HBT and SPS but went up, it was offset in aero. And we are seeing some improvement in the supply chain in those three segments. But unfortunately, we -- when you combine robust order rates in aero, there's some substantial issues in aero supply chain. Aero went up and went up substantially. So I think lead times are still long. They're getting better, especially in SPS and HBT. And frankly, the big unlock for aero as we look to '23 is actually labor. And that labor for Honeywell because we actually have labor, but from some of the Tier 3, Tier 4 suppliers. And if there is a recessionary environment in '23, that actually may be not helpful for the aerospace industry in terms of labor. So that's -- hopefully, that helps.
Sean Meakim:
Liz, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Our last question will come from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
And just for Vimal, want to first congratulate you on the new role. And it sounds like your initial focus is going to be on Intelligrated. Just could you share with us what your approach is and other areas of the firm that you'll be focusing on?
Vimal Kapur:
Yes. So I think specifically in Intelligrated, as we mentioned that we are seeing a reduction in volumes there. So we are really focused on how to make the business processes more robust in this cycle. So we're taking a lot of actions on our process maturity digitization in the business so that we come out stronger in our margin rate expansion in 2023 in the times to come. . On your broader question, yes, I'm looking at opportunities across Honeywell, how we can drive our long-term commitments on organic growth and margin expansion and working with all my SPG colleagues and Honeywell Connector Enterprises, and we are committed to make run our operations better so that we can deliver our long-term commitments on earnings.
Operator:
Darius Adamczyk for closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. We delivered a strong third quarter results and continue to navigate effectively through multiple uncertainties of the typical level of operational rigor and agility you've come to expect from Honeywell, enabling us to drive superior shareholder returns. Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by. And welcome to Honeywell’s Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the call over to, Sean Meakim. Please go ahead.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Latif. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s second quarter 2022 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. Also joining us are Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Anne Madden; and Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, Torsten Pilz. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Honeywell also uses our website as a means of disclosing information, which may be of interest or material to our investors and for complying with disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor our Investor Relations website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, webcasts and social media. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions. And we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the second quarter of 2022 and share our guidance for the third quarter and provide an update on our full year 2022 outlook. As always, we will leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I’ll turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let’s begin on slide 2. The second quarter was another strong one for Honeywell. We overdelivered on our commitments as our rigorous operating principles enable us to navigate a challenging backdrop and remain highly resilient, amid ongoing supply chain constraints, inflation headwinds and geopolitical unrest. We met or exceeded our second quarter guidance, despite these challenges with adjusted earnings per share of $2.10, up 4% year over year and $0.02 above the high end of the guidance range. Organic sales grew 4% year-over-year led by strong double digit growth in our commercial aviation, building products, productivity solutions and services, advanced sensing technologies, advanced materials and recurring connected software businesses. This was partially offset by 3 percentage-point impact from a combination of the wind down of our Russian operations and lower COVID-related mask sales as we lapped the height of demand in 2021. We expanded segment margin by 50 basis points year-over-year to 20.9%, meeting the high end of the guidance range, as commercial excellence enable us to remain ahead of the inflation curve. Excluding the impact of our investment in Quantinuum, the margin expansion was 80 basis points year-over-year. Orders and backlog strength continued in the second quarter, led by Aero, HBT and PMT as our end markets continue to recover, giving us confidence our demand outlook for the back half of the year. Orders were up 12% year-over-year and closing backlog was $29.5 billion, also up 12% year-over-year. In terms of capital, we deployed $2.3 billion to share repurchases, dividends and capital expenditures. We leveraged the strength of our balance sheet to opportunistically purchase 7.5 million shares throughout the quarter, reducing our average share count to 685 million shares and continue to execute on our commitment to buy back $4 billion in shares in 2022. As always, we continue to execute our rigorous and proven value-creation framework, which drives outstanding shareholder value. I am proud of Honeywell’s ability rise to the challenge to deliver strong results, amid such a fluid operating environment. Now, let’s turn to slide 3 to discuss recent senior leadership changes. This morning, we announced that Vimal Kapur has been appointed role of President and Chief Operating Officer, effective immediately. Vimal is currently the President and CEO of Honeywell Performance Materials and Technologies, and will maintain his PMT role until his successor is named. Honeywell is fortunate to benefit from a very deep bench of experienced leaders like Vimal with 33 years across various Honeywell businesses, a COO who will work closely with me to drive the continued profitable growth of Honeywell’s operating businesses. This includes creating new solutions to help our customers drive their sustainability transformations and accelerate their digital transformation journeys. Vimal will also oversee the continued integration of Honeywell’s operating system, which we call Honeywell Accelerator. Vimal is uniquely qualified for this role and has proven his operational capabilities across many different industries, business models, regions, and business cycles. This appointment provides me additional bandwidth to focus on strategy, business development, customer engagement and people development. Now, many of you will recall that I served as COO once upon a time as well. This announcement today is not a repeat of that playbook. While I won’t be Chairman and CEO indefinitely, I have no definitive plans to retire and will continue to lead Honeywell. Vimal’s appointment is going to allow me additional flexibility to focus on our overarching objective. In addition, effective earlier this month, we expanded both Sheila Jordan’s and Suresh Venkatarayalu’s role and welcome them to executive leadership team as Honeywell officers reporting to me, to ensure we continue to advance our enterprise transformation. Sheila expanded her role to include all digital transformation efforts, becoming Senior Vice President, Chief Digital Technology Officer. Sheila joined Honeywell in January, 2020 and has proven significant value working to modernize our IT infrastructure, applications, digital capabilities and talent. Suresh took an expanded role becoming Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Innovation Officer. Suresh has been with Honeywell almost 30 years and has held a series of Engineering and IT leadership positions, including CTO of Honeywell, and SPS. Suresh is responsible for new product development and introduction processes, including development for breakthrough technologies. I’d like to congratulate Vimal, Sheila and Suresh on their new roles, and I look forward to working closely with them as they enter the next phase of Honeywell’s transformation. Next, let me turn to slide 4 to discuss other exciting recent announcements. In the second quarter, we continued to build on a reputation as one of the premier providers of cutting edge technologies that can deliver more sustainable solutions. We announced yesterday that Archer Aviation selected Honeywell to provide flight control actuation and thermal management technologies for the Urban Air Mobility aircraft. Archer’s production aircraft will operate in dense urban environments, making critical precision from the aircraft’s flight controls and actuators, a must for civilian safety. Honeywell’s actuators can accept hundreds of micro adjustments and commands per second from fly-by-wire computers, enabling precise navigation which will enhance safety and accommodate the unique elements of Archer’s electric vertical takeoff, and landing aircraft. Honeywell has a wide variety of ready-now solutions that will create a more sustainable future for the aviation sector, is a great example of that. In addition, last month, we announced a partnership shift with EnLink Midstream to deliver a carbon capture solutions to industrial-scale CO2 emitters along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Our carbon capture and hydrogen purification technologies combined with EnLink’s planned CO2 pipeline transportation network provides a cost efficient solution for customers looking to reduce the environmental impact of their operations. Lastly, we discussed in our Q2 leadership webcast on sustainable building technologies released a new carbon and energy management software focused on the energy optimization and carbon reduction of commercial buildings. Commercial buildings currently account for almost a third of global energy consumption and 37% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Building owners recognize that this issue needs to be addressed and thousands of companies have voluntarily pledged to meet sustainability targets. Honeywell’s new software offering enables building owners track and optimize energy performance down to a device or asset level. Our carbon and energy management software leverages Honeywell Forge, artificial intelligence, and machine learning algorithms to autonomously identify and implement energy conservation measures. This makes it possible for building owners to reduce the environmental impact of their building, while at the same time improving the wellbeing of their occupants. As you can see, we are leveraging our expertise and culture of innovation to enable a more sustainable future. Now, let me turn it over to Greg on slide 5, to discuss our second quarter results in more detail and to provide an update on our 2022 outlook.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. As Darius highlighted, we delivered second quarter results which met or exceeded the high end of our guidance while navigating persistent macroeconomic uncertainties. Second quarter sales grew by 4% organically or 7%, excluding the impact of lower COVID-related mask volumes and the wind down of our operations in Russia. While demand trends remain strong, supply chain constraints continue to weigh on volume growth, predominantly in Aero, HBT and SPS, causing our path to backlog to increase sequentially by more than $100 million in the quarter. However, we once again demonstrated our operational agility by staying ahead of the inflation curve through strategic pricing actions, enabling us to expand margins and beat the high end of our adjusted EPS guidance. Aerospace sales for the second quarter were up 5% organically compared to the second quarter of ‘21 as we continue to face the challenged overall aerospace supply chain. The ongoing recovery in commercial flight hours led to approximately 20% year-over-year sales growth in both, air transport aftermarket and business and general aviation aftermarket sales. Business and general aviation original equipment returned to growth in the quarter, growing double digits, while air transport original equipment continue to strong 2022, growing over 25% year-over-year. Growth from our commercial aerospace business was partially offset by defense and space sales, which were down 11% year-over-year, so up sequentially from Q1 in both U.S. and international markets. Aerospace segment margins expanded 80 basis points in the second quarter to 26.5%. In Building Technologies, sales were up 14% organically, led by commercial actions and strength in both, building products and building solutions. Demand remains strong with orders up double-digits for the second consecutive quarter, led by building projects, building management systems and our security products. Backlog grew double-digits year-over-year in the second quarter, giving us continued confidence in our 2022 outlets. Our healthy buildings portfolio remained robust, with over $100 million of orders in the quarter. Segment margins expanded 110 basis points to 23.5%. In Performance Materials and Technologies, sales grew 10% organically in the quarter despite an approximately 3% headwind from Russia. Advanced materials continues to stand out with 21% organic sales growth in the quarter as a result of commercial excellence and greater volumes in specialty additives and electronic materials. Process solutions grew 7% organically on increased demand for thermal solutions and lifecycle solutions and services. Sparta Systems grew over 40% and was earnings accretive for the second consecutive quarter. Process solutions orders grew more than 15%, including double-digit growth in our projects business, showing continued momentum. UOP sales decreased 1% in the quarter, including a 7-point headwind to year-over-year growth from lost Russia sales. We continue to see strength in our higher margin catalyst business which grew more than 20% and helped to offset lower equipment volume due to timing of larger projects. PMT segment margin expanded 150 basis points to 22.3% in the quarter. Safety and Productivity Solutions sales decreased 10% organically in the quarter, in line with our expectations as strength in advanced sensing technologies and productivity solutions and services was offset by lower personal protective equipment and warehouse automation volume. Elevated COVID-driven mask demand in the second quarter of ‘21 led to a 5% year-over-year headwind for SPS in the quarter. Advanced sensing technologies grew 25%. Productivity solutions and services grew 19% and gas detection also grew organically in the quarter, all demonstrating excellent execution in a difficult supply constrained environment. We continue to be impressed by the performance of these businesses. This quarter marks 6 straight quarters of double-digit organic growth in productivity solutions and services, and 3 straight quarters for advanced sensing technologies. SPS also benefited from a licensing and settlement agreement to resolve patent-related litigation with a competitor, which we entered into in the second quarter. Under this agreement, each party agreed to provide a license to its existing patent portfolio for use by the other party’s existing products. And Honeywell is entitled to receive up to $360 million over two years. Honeywell received the first of these payments of $45 million in the second quarter, and recognized the corresponding sales and profit in the SPS financial results. This incremental profit in the quarter was more than offset by legal costs associated with the agreement and a one-time write-down of excess COVID-related mask inventory, which should close the book on that mask story. Overall SPS segment margins contracted 140 basis points to 12.6%, primarily due to the lower volumes and the PPE write-down. Growth across our portfolio continues to be supported by strong results in Honeywell Connected Enterprise. We had another quarter of double-digit revenue growth, including double-digit recurring and 40% SaaS business growth year-over-year. Sparta Systems, connected safety and cyber all saw growth of greater than 25% year-over-year in the quarter. So, for overall Honeywell, we exceeded our sales outlook growing top-line 4% organically, and we executed operationally to expand second quarter segment margin by 50 basis points to 20.9%, meeting the high end of our margin guidance range with expansion in PMT, HBT and aerospace. This expansion is net of a 30 basis-point year-over-year headwind associated with our investment in Quantinuum. On EPS, we delivered second quarter GAAP earnings per share of $1.84 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.10, which was up $0.08 year-over-year despite a $0.04 headwind from foreign exchange. A bridge for adjusted earnings per share from 2Q ‘21 to 2Q ‘22 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Segment profit was an $0.08 tailwind, driven by strong commercial execution. Share count reduction drove a $0.05 year-over-year tailwind to earnings per share. We saw a $0.04 headwind from below-the-line items, primarily due to the lower pension income. A higher effective tax rate, 23.4% this year versus 23% last year drove a $0.01 headwind. In response to winding down operations in Russia, we recorded an additional charge of $126 million or a $0.19 impact to GAAP EPS. The Company also took a $50 million non-cash charge in 2Q related to the potential comprehensive resolution of ongoing UOP matters. More information on this can be found in our Form 10-Q. Moving to cash. We generated over $800 million of free cash flow in the quarter, down 43% year-on-year, which was closely aligned to our expectations. We continued to invest in inventory to deliver for our customers, which is driving elevated working capital in recent quarters, including Q2. During the quarter, we also received the final payment to close out our agreement with Garrett, but still saw a year-over-year decline in Garrett payments due to an elevated $375 million payment in the second quarter last year. We remain on-track to deliver our cash guidance range of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion for the full year. Finally, as Darius mentioned earlier, we continue to leverage our strong balance sheet, deploying $2.3 billion in the quarter. Notably, we repurchased 7.5 million shares for $1.4 billion in the second quarter, bringing our first half total to $2.4 billion as we execute on our updated commitment to buy back $4 billion in shares and ‘22. We also paid approximately $690 million in dividends and invested approximately $160 million in CapEx. So overall, another strong quarter in which we delivered results at or above our expectations, executed well through challenging economic conditions, and accelerated our capital deployment. Now, let’s turn to slide 6 to talk about our third quarter and full year guidance. While the environment continues to be volatile, our demand profile remains resilient. Our 2Q orders and our closing backlog of $29.5 billion both grew 12% year-over-year positioning as well for the quarters to come. Supply chain constraints particularly related to semiconductors improved slightly in the second quarter, and we expect modest sequential benefits to continue throughout the back half of the year, enabling us to unlock greater volumes. The Aerospace supply chain has continued to face difficulties, but we’re confident in the eventual recovery as Tier 3 and Tier 4 suppliers work to combat labor shortages. Once again this quarter and throughout the rest of the year, we are staying ahead of the inflation curve with our strategic pricing actions. As a result of rising interest rates and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, we are experiencing higher foreign currency impacts than we had in our prior guidance, impacting sales and EPS, and we are overcoming that operationally. With that as a backdrop, we expect third quarter sales to be in the range of $8.9 billion to $9.2 billion, up 7% to 11% on an organic basis, or up 8% to 12% excluding the 1 point impact of our lost Russian sales. We now expect full year sales of $35.5 billion to $36.1 billion, which represents a decrease of $300 million on the high end from our prior guidance, incorporating higher foreign currency impact. However, we are raising the low end of our organic growth range now at 5% to 7%, increasing the midpoint versus our prior guidance, and narrowing the overall range. That represents organic growth of 7% to 9% excluding a 1 point impact of lower COVID-related mask demand and a 1 point impact of lost Russian sales. The difference between our reported and our organic sales growth guidance is 2 points driven entirely by foreign currency translation. We expect our disciplined commercial actions will contribute approximately 8% to our sales growth in 2022, which is higher than we anticipated last quarter, as we remain vigilant in addressing price cost dynamics given elevated inflation. Now, let’s take a moment to walk through the third quarter and full year expectations by segment. An update on our 2022 end market outlook can be found in the appendix of this presentation. In Aerospace, we see ongoing flight hour improvement leading to another quarter of robust growth in our aftermarket business, led by air transport aftermarket. In original equipment, build rates continue to ramp, driving growth in both, air transport, and business and general aviation. Defense and space grew sequentially in the second quarter, and we expect this trend to continue into the second half. We anticipate the business will return to year-over-year growth in the second half as comps ease, but it will be down slightly for the full year. As I mentioned earlier, the overall aerospace supply chain remains challenged and is partially offsetting strong end market demand. While our supplier decommit rate improved sequentially in the second quarter, the pace of improvement is slower than the higher end of our expectation. As a result, we now expect Aerospace sales for the year to be up mid single digits compared to 2021, lower than our previous outlook of high single digits. Original equipment mix headwinds were well telegraphed but lower volume leverage will weigh on full year margins, which we now expect to be down modestly year-over-year. In Building Technologies, where supply chain constraints particularly around semiconductors, have improved slightly each quarter so far ‘22, we expect sequentially improved volumes and pricing actions will support continued growth into the second half of the year. Energy efficiency and healthy building solutions remain a priority for our customers, enabling growth in our building solutions and healthy building businesses. We now expect full year organic growth in the double-digits, trending better than our outlook at the end of the first quarter of high-single-digits to double-digits. Our operational excellence and additional volume leverage should allow us to build upon our margin expansion from the first half and the third quarter and throughout the rest of ‘22. In Performance Materials and Technologies, the favorable outlook in our end markets and two consecutive quarters of double-digit orders growth provide solid footing for the future. In process solutions we expect sequential improvement in the third quarter, with continued strong demand for thermal solutions leading the year-over-year growth. We expect sequential growth in UOP throughout the remainder of the year, largely driven by increased refining catalyst shipments with a heavier margin benefit in the fourth quarter versus the third. As we discussed last quarter, Russia will be a headwind to year-over-year growth throughout ‘22, but we’re optimistic about the potential capacity investments in the energy sector to offset Russian supply, especially in LNG, and these investments provide support for our long-term growth framework. We expect the typical seasonality in advanced materials as we exit the summer months, but pricing tailwinds and solid demand support continued year-over-year growth in the back half. For overall PMT, we now expect sales to be up high single digits for the year and upgrade from our outlook last quarter of up mid to high-single-digits. And we expect segment margin expansion in the second half versus the first. Looking ahead for SPS, we expect continued growth in advanced sensing technologies and gas detection as demand indicators have remained strong, and these businesses are supported by a robust backlog. And we expect modest sequential improvements throughout the back half of the year. As we enter into the second half, we expect our personal protective equipment sales run rate to be relatively stable in the third and the fourth quarter. In Intelligrated, we are encouraged by the improvements we’re making in our operational efficiency and strategic customer wins, which will enable greater profitability over the project lifecycle. That said we’re seeing capital spending plans of our warehouse automation customers pushed to the right, some of which has been broadly publicized. While we remain very confidence in the medium term growth rate, we expect 2022 SPS revenue to decline mid-single-digits versus 2021 as deliveries slide to the right. As I mentioned earlier, segment margin in the second quarter was lowered by a 1 time inventory write-down. So we expect significant sequential margin improvement in the third quarter and continued expansion in the fourth quarter through a combination of higher volume leverage, some cost reductions, and positive mix shift. For overall Honeywell, we expect third quarter segment margins to be in the range of 20.9% to 21.2%, resulting in year-over-year margin contraction of 30 basis points to flat due to timing of high margin catalyst shipments in PMT and some mix headwinds in Aerospace. Excluding the 40 basis-point headwind from Quantinuum, we expect margins to expand 10 to 40 basis points. From a sequential perspective, our third quarter margin expectations are flat to up 30 basis points. Turning to our other core guided metrics. Third quarter net below-the-line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of negative $20 million to positive $30 million, with a range of repositioning between $50 million and $90 million in the quarter as we continue to fund attractive restructuring projects. We expect the third quarter effective tax rate to be approximately 24% and the average share count to be approximately 679 million shares. As a result, we expect adjusted third quarter EPS between $2.10 and $2.20, up 4% to 9% year-over-year. Turning to the full year, we expect organic sales growth of 5% to 7%, up from 4% to 7% last quarter. We are upgrading our segment margin expectations by 20 basis points to 30 to 70 basis points of year-over-year expansion, at a margin rate of 21.3% to 21.7%. This is supported by successful execution of our price cost strategies, as well as our continued rigor on fixed cost management. Excluding the 30 basis-point headwind from Quantinuum, we expect margins to expand 60 to 100 basis points in the year. We expect full year net below-the-line impact to be in the range of negative $150 million to negative $50 million, including capacity for $350 million to $425 million of repositioning. We expect a full year effective tax rate of approximately 22%, and we expect a weighted-average share count to be in the range of 684 million to 687 million shares for the year, reflecting our commitment to repurchase $4 billion of Honeywell shares in ‘22. As a result of all these inputs, we have raised a low end of our full year adjusted earnings per share expectations to $8.55 to $8.80, up 6% to 9% year-over-year, reflecting confidence in our ability to more than offset a $0.05 foreign exchange headwind versus our initial guide from February as well as navigate evolving external risks. We still expect to see free cash flow in a range of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion in 2022 or $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion excluding the impact of Quantinuum. The cash impact and timing of our Russia exit does remain uncertain and we’ll update you as that continues to develop as it is not contemplated in this guidance. So, in total, we executed a strong Q2, despite supply chain, foreign currency, Russia and inflation headwinds, and are raising the midpoint of our organic sales growth, adjusted EPS growth and segment margin ranges, while holding our cash range, demonstrating our strong operational capabilities. Before turning it back to Darius, let’s turn to the next page to discuss our ability to deliver in all economic cycles. During our Investor Day earlier this year, we talked about our track record of managing through the cycle. Our execution through multiple downturns, highlights our ability to move quickly and decisively to protect margins, drive growth, ensure liquidity and position ourselves for recovery. As we continue to maneuver through changing economic conditions, our favorable end market exposures, robust orders and backlog positions and diligent cost management will enable us to deliver differentiated results for our shareholders, as we have proven in the past. We believe our end market exposures will help us to remain resilient, during times of short cycle demand softening. In fact, 65% of our sales address the commercial aviation, defense, energy and non-residential end markets, which are all set up favorably to weather a potential recession. In commercial aviation, pent-up demand for leisure and business travel will continue to drive aftermarket demand, particularly as international travel resumes. Defense will remain relatively stable as international budgets are poised to increase with restocking from NATO allies, adding upward momentum to this end market. The energy markets are also gaining traction with higher relatively stable oil prices supporting an expected wave of capital reinvestment and LNG capacity additions, which are required to replace Russian gas supply and power the energy transition. Infrastructure builds, both domestic and abroad, provide tailwinds for the nonresidential sector as does increased customer focus on sustainability and healthy buildings. As I mentioned earlier, although we are seeing some near-term softness in e-commerce, we still believe the medium-term growth is robust. As Darius mentioned earlier, we ended 2Q with a record high backlog of $29.5 billion, up 12% year-on-year. Approximately 60% of this backlog is long cycle, which grew 12% year-over-year, led by growth in commercial aviation, building projects and services, and process solutions projects. This gives us ample runway to support growth for quarters to come. Finally, our long track record of segment margin expansion through multiple downturns and recessionary periods indicates our superior ability to streamline our fixed cost base, simplify and automate operations with our integrated supply chain transformation efforts and create efficiencies using Honeywell’s digital capabilities to standardize business models and use data analytics to optimize productivity and growth. In fact, Honeywell Digital has proven very valuable over the last year. The tools we have built are helping us methodically and strategically implement pricing, enabling us to stay ahead of the inflation curve. This, coupled with our rigorous and proven Honeywell value creation framework should provide investors with comfort that we will remain highly resilient, perform in all economic cycles and consistently deliver superior shareholder returns. Now, let me turn it back to Darius to talk about how we are leveraging our resources and expertise to positively impact our communities.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Greg. Let’s turn to slide 8 and talk of the more aspirational approach we are taking toward ESG commitments. At Honeywell, our commitment to improving the world beyond our product portfolio begins with our four pillars of corporate social responsibility
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Darius. Darius, Greg, Anne and Torsten are now available to answer your questions. We ask that you please be mindful of others in the queue by only asking one question. Latif, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Just on the Defense business. What are you hearing there? And what are you expecting for the second half and into next year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, yes, as you saw, the business was still down in Q2. But if you look at -- if you combine the long cycle and the long-cycle bookings for the first half, it’s actually been up year-over-year, so things are looking better. Obviously, as we look at the Ukraine situation and the focus of a lot of our NATO allies, we do anticipate some positive tailwinds in the next 6 to 12 months. So similar to what some of the other peer companies, particularly in the defense reported, we do expect that to be a tailwind as we head into 2023 and beyond. Well, obviously, it’s been a headwind so far for us this year.
Steve Tusa:
And then what’s -- just the follow-up, what’s going on in UOP? I mean, I would have expected maybe a little bit more growth there.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, UOP was -- if you think about one business that got hit disproportionately hard by Russia, it was UOP. I mean it was a substantial headwind. I think it was 6...
Greg Lewis:
We figured -- it’s -- we were down 1 in UOP and it’s -- 7 points of that is Russia. So it’s plus 6...
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So that’s --that absorbed most of the Russia hit, and actually, we had some very robust bookings for Russia, which were canceled for UOP.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell of Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe just wanted to try and sort of understand the firm-wide sort of sales and margin construct. So I think sort of sequentially in Q3, you’re looking at flattish sales and flattish segment margins. And then into Q4, you have EUR 300 million or EUR 400 million revenue uplift and a sort of 200-point segment margin uplift. So just trying to understand, is it really sort of SPS that has that very big margin hockey stick at the end of the year? And also within Aerospace, you did allude to some margin pressures. And maybe help us sort of frame the scale of those and the factors behind them.
Greg Lewis:
Sure, sure. So I think what you’re going to see as we go through the remainder of the year is, as you mentioned, 3Q is going to look a lot like 2Q, broadly speaking. And as we get into Q4, we’re going to get our normal sort of seasonal uplift in revenue, which brings along with that some nice fixed cost leverage. On top of that, we’re going to get some mix favorability. We expect UOP, in particular, to be very strong in Q4. You know that our PMT margins can be pretty lumpy with individual UOP catalyst shipments moving that needle, and we have a pretty strong Q4 plugged in there. And we are also taking some cost actions in SPS in particular, where we’ve talked to you about the relative challenges in top line. So that’s how I would think about the setup as we go into the back half.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So Julian, just kind of in summary, it’s probably 3 primary things. Number one is PMT mix, particularly in UOP, which is favorable, and we know it pretty well because it’s a long-cycle business. Number two is some leverage and some cost actions, particularly in SPS, which will provide us margin favorability and a bit more volume leverage also in Q4. Because as you kind of look through the year, the equation will shift from more sort of price gains, the more volume leverages we get to Q4. So that’s why Q4 looks a bit more -- a bit higher in terms of margin profile. It’s -- this is very much in line with our original model. So there’s nothing really dramatically different than what we expected.
Julian Mitchell:
And just as the follow-up, sort of any color on the Aero margin pressure you mentioned?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I would just say we printed something in the 26-ish range in Q2, and I would expect that to stay in that neighborhood through the remainder of the year kind of directionally. We’ll probably get again a little bit of a lift in Q4 with some extra volume. But previously, we had thought that would be a little bit more robust with a higher revenue profile. But as I discussed earlier, that’s where we’re probably on the lower end of our range of expectations of supply chain healing and output. And so just a little bit of volume leverage loss relative to the high end of what we had hopefully.
Darius Adamczyk:
And due to primarily very robust OE demand, which obviously is -- from a mix perspective, is negative. But really nothing there that’s different than our expectations.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis of Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
You’re one of the few companies, I think, we’re going to see this quarter with gross margins up. In fact, they’re up 60 bps. Is that -- would you characterize that because of -- you’re ahead of the curve on price cost? Or is it some mix help and benefit? I know that you keep fixed costs down, and that’s helpful, certainly when you have unit volumes. But I would imagine net of price or unit volume this quarter weren’t very positive. So can you help kind of...
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, sure. Absolutely. Let me help unpack that. Certainly, we’re trying to stay ahead of inflation. That’s been a playbook. We’re trying to get price where we can. And we have pretty good metrics and visibility in exactly where inflation is, how it’s broken down by business unit, how we’re seeing it. And now we’ve embedded that into our operating system that -- such that we can identify it, act. And we do that in multiple ways. I mean, obviously, price is one lever, managing the mix to things that we can sell that are higher margin profile. We’ve done some redesigns which are also net helpful also generate some cost benefit. The thing I’m particularly pleased about is I can tell you, well, full transparency, 9 months ago, that was not part of our playbook. I think we stumbled a little bit 9 months ago, and I’m really thrilled because now it’s part of our operating system. We know what to do. It’s underpinned by the fact we have great data visibility, great analytics, 1 source of truth, which really enables us to take much more precise management actions to manage the headwinds we see in inflation.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Maybe on -- the guys stole my aerospace question. So maybe on Intelligrated and Warehouse, that was down sharply in the quarter as you expected, but you called out greater profitability over this cycle. Can you talk about some of the puts and takes on how you’re envisioning that business improve?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, I think some of the Warehouse kind of overcapacity in the market has been pretty well publicized, so I’m not going to dwell on that. I mean, obviously, we’re seeing that too. And frankly, we forget that the PET business grew at 50% in 2021 and at a similar rate in 2020. So I think that, frankly, what it needs to happen is that some of this capacity needs to be absorbed. We’re very, very excited about the future of warehouse automation. So this is a bit of a blip for the next few quarters. And midterm, we think that this is going to be still a very good business. And you’re right, from a mix perspective, although there is obviously -- to the top line, there is an impact; from a mix -- margin mix perspective, this would be net helpful because our LSS business is growing. Some of our projects that we are securing are at higher margin rates. So net-net, this is not something we’re particularly that worried about. I mean, we wish the business was there from a top line perspective. But overall, I think this is a storm that we’re definitely going to weather, and we still love the segment that we’re in, in warehouse automation.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on the new COO role. And could you just give us more of your thought process there? And specifically, historically, we’ve been getting questions on Honeywell and M&A. Does that mean that, Darius, you’re just going to spend more time on strategic alternatives? And does the world look any different to you now post the market corrections and what’s been happening there?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, I mean, I think let me just kind of talk a little bit about the COO role and Vimal, specifically. I mean as you can imagine, we do -- a lot of the operational outputs that we get don’t happen by accident. It takes a lot of hard work and attention to detail and pursuing data and so on. And I kind of found myself maybe more in the middle of that than maybe I wanted to be. Maybe that’s good and bad. And frankly, some of these other aspects and M&A and BD is certainly one of those is an area that I probably should be spending a little bit more time in. But I would add to that, customer outreach and people development strategy and some of the other brand building, things that, frankly, I should be doing. And I -- to be very transparent, I’ve talked about that openly to my own staff multiple times. And I think that the best way to kind of solve that is to really partner with Vimal to be the COO. I mean, he’s got a great track record at Honeywell. He’s been extraordinarily successful in running HBT. He’s run HPS. He’s run PMT. It’s got 33 years’ worth of experience. There aren’t too many mysteries to Vimal that he doesn’t know at Honeywell with that kind of multi-business experience and multicontinent experience, because he’s lived in Asia, Europe and North America. So he’s going to be a great partner for us to do things. And I think this is going to be a net positive for Honeywell, because it will allow me to do some other things that are going to be very beneficial. And yes, BD and M&A is going to be one of those things.
Andrew Obin:
I got you. And then just a follow-up question on strength in Advanced Materials came in a little bit stronger than I would have thought. Can you just comment what’s specifically going on there and how sustainable it is?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. No, we love our Advanced Materials business. I mean, you’re seeing a lot of things. You’ve seen the strength of our Solstice business really picking up. We kind of forget that we have an electronic materials business, probably the only electronic materials and chemicals business based in the U.S. So you can imagine what kind of future that has. And the business is very robust. We’ve invested in capacity expansion. Those capacity expansions are not even yet shown in our results and will really come to fruition in 2023. So not only are we excited about how the business is performing in ‘22. Things could get even better for ‘23. So we’re very thrilled with the performance of Advanced Materials.
Andrew Obin:
Great to hear on congrats to Vimal.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
And congratulations to Vimal. Actually, I was going to ask about the COO role, but that’s been asked already. But just maybe just clarify, Darius, is Vimal going to continue to be the leader of PMT? Or is that going to transition over time? But my real question is around the consumer. And obviously, Resideo and Garrett took a lot of the consumer -- direct consumer exposure away from Honeywell. But in terms of your second half framework, just given the way that a lot of the consumer-facing stocks are just blowing up and we’re starting to see -- June, July starting to see that impact. To what extent have you dialed in weaker trends within, I don’t know, refrigerants, electronics, handhelds within SPS? Any kind of concerns you see in there?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Yes. So let me kind of unpack, because there’s really 2 questions. Let me very quickly open the PMT question. So no, we don’t envision Vimal holding on to both roles. But what we wanted to do is to make sure that it became clear that the PMT role is open. Because as always, when we have big roles like that open, we want to consider internal and external candidates. And frankly, it’s much tougher to recruit when a role isn’t vacated, so he’s going to serve in both roles. As you can imagine, early on, and he’s got to pay a lot of attention to PMT. But as we fill that role, he’s going to take over more of the COO role. So that’s the first part. Yes, we’ve seen some of the same outputs on the consumer. And you’re right, we don’t have a lot of consumer exposure. I mean most of that consumer exposure went away with the 2 spins. So that’s spot on as well. We see it a little bit indirectly. I talked about it in the Intelligrated play, because sort of -- there was some level of assumption that sort of this consumer demand would keep on going. It’s kind of slowed down and consumers have a little bit of a different behavior, so we see it there. But I would just say this. If you go back to 2020 right after the pandemic hit us, we probably had one of the most unfavorable pandemic portfolio you could have out there, right? I mean our 2 biggest businesses were aerospace and energy. And frankly, other than maybe hospitality, those got hit about as hard as anything else. Well, I think we’re kind of entering a little bit of a different cycle, and I actually think that no matter what you count in terms of the recession period, I don’t see a substantial reduction in OE build rates for aerospace, air travel. There’s a lot of pent-up demand, and you see it. You see it more on the consumer side. And my bet is you’re going to see it more and more on the business side. There’s still a lot of pent-up demand to travel. And let’s be honest, a widebody, at least in international travel, is nowhere near where it was in 2019. So I think we’re entering a cycle here, which is actually going to have a very favorable market mix, market conditions. Obviously, that’s underpinned by the kind of backlog position we have. So we’re cautiously optimistic that even in a recessionary environment, which may happen, I think we’re still going to do quite well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Congrats to everybody on their promotions. My question is really just around pricing. So I think last quarter, you guys talked about 5 points of price coming through for the year. I’m curious, what’s the expectation now? And then also, clearly, like you guys are building up a pretty good war chest here. It’s backlogs almost $30 billion. I just want to understand how you guys are thinking about the pricing that’s in that backlog. And with commodities deflating right now, could you see a nice little boost in 2023 as you start to deliver some of that backlog?
Greg Lewis:
Sure. So you’re right, we talked about 5% for the year a quarter ago. We now see that as being more like an 8% number for 2022. So nice progress for the first 2 quarters, and that kind of carrying through. Pricing our backlog has been something that’s been very important to us. Obviously, that’s got a lot more challenges to it than new orders coming in. But we have been successful in doing that in certain areas of the portfolio. So we expect to be able to retain a good bit of that pricing. I think we found that our pricing has been very sticky over time.
Joe Ritchie:
And maybe, Greg, just answering that question on like the -- on commodities deflating. Like, how does -- does that impact your business at all this year? Is that more of like a 2023 event? It’s like if we continue to see base now prices stay at current levels, which has been on a downward trajectory for the last several weeks?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I would say when we look at it, there are some commodities that are seeing some of that deflation. But overall, for our total portfolio of direct materials, that’s sort of cherry picking. And overall, we still see a net increase.
Darius Adamczyk:
Overall, I mean, your theory is right that as some of these commodities come down, we may have an opportunity as we get into ‘23 for some margin expansion. It obviously varies by commodity. Some of them are indexed, some of them are not. So -- but directionally, I think your assertion is correct.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup. And Capital.
Andy Kaplowitz:
So Darius, you raised HBT expected growth from high single digits to double digits to double digits. Are the primary markets in HBT growing that fast? Or are these share gains that HBT continues to achieve? Maybe just a big uptick you’re seeing in high-growth markets and how are you thinking about HBT’s European exposure.
Darius Adamczyk:
I think it’s a little bit of both. I mean, certainly, the business is growing. I think -- what I’m particularly excited about is that HPT has the kind of solutions that our customers are seeking, both in terms of energy conservation, in terms of healthy buildings, healthy environments, clean air, visibility to their energy usage, visibility to their carbon emissions, all of these are -- these are solutions that we currently have in our portfolio, and there isn’t a customer out there that’s not interested. And that’s reflected in their booking rates. I mean their booking rates were pretty much double digits, almost across the board for every one of their businesses. So it’s the right portfolio, right solutions and the business is doing very, very well.
Andy Kaplowitz:
And just there’s HBT’s European exposure in general European exposure. Are you seeing anything there?
Darius Adamczyk:
No, not yet. I mean, frankly, our business in Germany, which is obviously the biggest economy, was actually up significantly in Q2, so we’re not kind of seeing any signs yet of any kind of a pickup. We’re watching this as much as everybody else. We are as concerned as everybody else around sort of the energy profile as Europe heads into the winter. But so far, so good in terms of what we saw here in Q2.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski of Morgan Stanley, Josh Pokrzywinski.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just want to follow up on PMT. I guess a couple unique drivers of this cycle maybe versus what we’ve seen in the past. I guess, on one hand, you’ve had refining margins blow out the upsides here pretty quickly and maybe some snap responses by those customers to drive spending this year, but it’s still kind of a long-cycle business, hard to get too much going inside of a 6- or 12-month period. But as much as it’s good this year, are you guys pulling things forward potentially from ‘23? Is it still building momentum here? Like, how do you see kind of the unique aspects of this environment kind of driving momentum or duration versus other cycles in that business?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So we are certainly not pulling anything from ‘23. So let’s just be very clear about that. There is no pull-ins. We don’t need to do pull-ins because the business is robust. What we’re excited about is the LNG cycle. I mean, you see that investment taking place. You see it in the Middle East. You see it in the U.S. We are participating in it. UOP is participating. We had some very robust bookings that you saw in Q2 here. We actually expect more robust bookings in the second half of the year, and we’re very much part of that LNG cycle. Another really important data point, which is -- I don’t know if this is well publicized, but we are also the leading player in renewable fuels or green fuels. And the solutions there just this year, our expectation is that the bookings in that segment would be up 3x versus what they were in 2021. So we are very excited. It’s -- we’re kind of playing on the both ends of the barbell when it comes to the energy infrastructure. And I think this is exactly where you want to be. The world needs energy right now, and it’s most likely going to come from natural gas, and there’s got to be a build-out. There’s going to be infrastructure build-out. There’s going to be E&P that takes place to supply the world with natural gas. You see that particularly pronounced in Europe. We’re playing in that. We’re also playing on sustainability and renewables and renewable fuels. And I just gave you the very specific data point on green, sustainable fuels, where we’re really a leader in that space. We’re having more and more wins in plastics recycling. We have a pilot going on in battery storage. So just about every relevant, I talked a little bit earlier in the earnings call about the partnership in carbon capture. So just about anything you want to do in sustainability and renewable economy of the future, we also do. So we’re going to benefit from both sides of this energy transition, and you see it in the bookings right this quarter.
Sean Meakim:
Latif, we have time for one more, please.
Operator:
Yes, sir. And our final question comes from the line of Deane Dray of RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Just a couple of cleanup questions for Darius. Good to hear that the semiconductor situation seems to be bottoming. Just some color on de-commits and your expectations for the second half. Is it going to be a linear improvement? Do you expect it to be choppy? And then for Greg, anything on Russia in terms of other write-downs that -- I know they’re excluded, but just the wind down of Russia, is that complete yet?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So maybe let me take the first one Yes, I mean I think in terms of recovery on our supply chain broadly, it’s going to be very, very gradual. There is no sort of a magic unlock that’s going to happen in one quarter and all of a sudden, everything will now sort of get flushed through our backlogs and so on. I think it’s been very gradual. Sort of the de-commits you’re probably referring to, because I gave some specific numbers on that in last quarter around aerospace. And just to give you a little bit of an update on that. Q1 was at 22.5%, 23% in that range. Q2 was better, but it wasn’t as good as we had hoped. It came in at just a shade over 21% on the de-commits, so better than Q1, but we were kind of hoping something around the 19% to 20% range. But we saw improvement. We expect that improvement to continue gradually. We also saw about a 3% improvement in output Q-over-Q. So overall, some level of progress, but it’s going to be gradual. And that’s kind of what we’re penciling in for the next few quarters, which is gradual level of improvement, both in the semi space as well as some of the aerospace supply chain. That’s kind of what our standard case is. We hope for the better. We’ve deployed a small army into the supply chain, particularly in the Aerospace segment to help our suppliers get up to rate. But it’s challenging because it’s not sort of just the suppliers that are kind of, let’s call them, Tier 3 suppliers that really feed us to the Tier 4 and even Tier 5 suppliers that are struggling. And this problem will be solved. I have no doubt it will solved, but there is no instant gratification.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. And then on the Russia side, Deane, I mean, I’d say we have taken the bulk of the write-downs associated with our balance sheet as it relates to Russia in the first quarter. That was really around our unbilled receivables in the second quarter. We took down essentially all of our PP&E and any other related assets down to essentially zero at this point. What we’re really working through now is just the cash implications of all of that, and it’s going to be a legal matter that will probably take quarters and -- well into 2023 as all of the aspects of sanctions on export control compliance comes into play. So it’s just not going to be a simple wind down. But from a write-down perspective, I would say the bulk of it has happened at this point.
Darius Adamczyk:
And, Deane, as you know, we’ve absorbed sort of the FX impact as well into our guidance range, which was nickel on the EPS range, and on a year-over-year basis, actually a $0.14 headwind, so.
Deane Dray:
That’s helpful. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Okay. I just want to thank all of our shareholders for your ongoing support. We delivered strong second quarter results in typical Honeywell fashion. We have and we will continue to overcome the numerous external factors we face with operational rigor and agility in order to drive superior shareholder returns. Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Honeywell First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Shannon. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s first quarter 2022 earnings. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. Also joining us are Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Anne Madden and Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, Torsten Pilz. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Honeywell also uses our website as a means of disclosing information, which may be of interest or material to our investors and for complying with disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor our Investor Relations website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, webcasts and social media. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions. And we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the first quarter of 2022, share our guidance for the second quarter and provide an update on our full year 2022 outlook. As always, we will leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I’ll turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let’s begin on Slide 2. First off, our collective thoughts are to millions of Ukrainian refugees. And we hope to see a peaceful resolution quickly. Our number one priority continues to be the safety and security of our employees and partners in the region and respond to their immediate needs. That said we delivered a very strong first quarter despite a challenging backdrop that included ongoing supply chain constraints, inflation headwinds and global unrest. I am pleased with our disciplined execution as we navigate these dynamics and capitalize on the ongoing recovery in our end markets. We met or exceeded our first quarter commitments despite these challenges with adjusted earnings per share of $1.91, down 1% year-over-year, about $0.01 above the high end of our guidance range. Organic sales grew by 1% year-over-year. And our commercial aviation aftermarket, building products, productivity solutions and services, advanced materials and recurring connected software businesses all delivered double-digit organic growth. This was partially offset by 2 percentage point impact from lower COVID-related mask sales as we lap the height of the demand in 2021. Our strong price realization allowed us to stay ahead of the inflation curve. We expanded segment margin by 10 basis points year-over-year, 10 basis points above the high end of our guidance range. Excluding the impact of our investment in Quantinuum, the margin expansion rate would have been 40 basis points year-over-year. Orders and backlog growth accelerated in the first quarter, indicating strong demand momentum despite macro headwinds. Led by strength in Aero, HBT and PMT, our end markets continued to recover. We’ll go into more details on orders and backlog trends on the next slide. The first quarter is seasonally our lowest from a cash perspective. And as we communicated, this year, it is being exacerbated by the supply chain impacts and strong collections in Q4. We generated $50 million of free cash flow in the quarter. These results do not change our full year free cash flow guidance range of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion, which Greg will discuss later. We continue to leverage our strong balance sheet, deploying $2 billion of total capital in the first quarter, including $1 billion allocated to share repurchases as we began execution of our recently updated commitment to buy back $4 billion in shares in 2022. From an M&A perspective, we closed the acquisition of US Digital Designs, a public safety communications hardware and software solutions provider. Looking forward, I continue to be encouraged by the strength we are seeing in many areas of our portfolio as we execute our rigorous and proven value-creation framework. Our Accelerator operating system is driving outstanding shareholder value. Now let me turn to Slide 3 to discuss our orders and backlog trends. First quarter orders across Honeywell grew 13%, the strongest growth we have since the start of 2021 with the exception of second Q ‘21 growth, which benefited from 2020 COVID-related lows. Despite ongoing macro challenges over the last few years, our book-to-bill ratio has been greater than 1 for the last several quarters, indicating the strength of our demand and commercial success. Long cycle orders grew over 20% in the first quarter, led by strength in the overall Aerospace portfolio, PMT process solutions projects and SPS warehouse automation to help facilitate sustained growth through the coming years. First quarter backlog increased 9% year-over-year to $28.5 billion, or up 10%, excluding the impact of approximately $300 million of backlog we moved due to the Russia conflict. Backlog growth has also been accelerating consistently over the last 2 years as our end markets recover, giving us confidence in increased sales growth as the supply chain environment eases. Now let’s turn to Slide 4 to discuss some exciting recent announcements. Last month, we announced a strategic collaboration with OTTO Motors, a division of ClearPath Robotics, that gives warehouse and distribution centers throughout North America an automated option to handle some of the most labor-intensive roles in an increasingly scarce job market. The collaboration enables Honeywell customers to increase efficiency, reduce errors and improve safety by deploying to OTTO’s autonomous mobile robots in their facilities. These autonomous mobile robots handle repetitive and often time-consuming tasks and allow scarce labor resources to be shifted to higher-value jobs. This helps boost worker satisfaction while reducing injuries and turnover rates. The pandemic and its lasting effects on labor shortages is causing companies to reconsider the way they operate. And companies are more willing than ever to invest in automation. We also recently announced that we will supply Hecate Energy with an Energy Storage System for a solar park located in northern New Mexico. When completed in mid-2022, a 50-megawatt solar farm will be capable of supplying enough electricity to power up to 16,000 average New Mexico homes, which will help meet the state’s decarbonization goals. When combining with Honeywell’s Experion Energy Control Systems, the Energy Storage Systems will enable customers to accurately forecast and optimize energy cost at the site and will support access to reliable and cost-effective clean energy. Honeywell remains on the forefront of innovation that is leading the energy transition. Energy storage will be a play – will play a critical role in renewable power generation and will be vital to the decarbonization of global power systems. Lastly, we are teaming up with World Energy, a carbon net zero solution provider, and Air Products, the world’s largest hydrogen producer, to build one of the most technologically advanced Sustainable Aviation Fuel production and distribution sites ever constructed. The facility will produce fuels that will displace over 76 million metric tons of carbon dioxide by 2050, the equivalent of 3.8 million carbon net zero flights from L.A. to New York. World Energy and Honeywell collaborated over the past 9 years. And this long-term engagement will continue to transform the industry, support the growth of zero carbon economy and help accelerate the decarbonization of the aviation industry. These exciting announcements reinforce our message at Investor Day that our innovative culture, our commitment to providing efficient and sustainable solutions to meet the needs of our customers and our new technologies will be integral to the next leg of growth. Now, let me turn it over to Greg on Slide 5 to discuss our first quarter results in more detail and to provide an update on our 2022 outlook.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. As Darius highlighted, we met or exceeded our financial commitments despite a very challenging backdrop. First quarter sales grew by 1% organically as supply chain constraints, predominantly in Aero, HBT and SPS, continue to hold back volume growth and cause our past-due backlogs to increase by approximately $500 million in the quarter. Our strong pricing was a highlight in the face of high inflation. Similar to the fourth quarter, 1Q also had difficult year-over-year comps with lower COVID-related mask demand, impacting growth by 2 percentage points, and the timing of sales in warehouse automation dampening our growth rate. Turning to the segments, aerospace sales for the first quarter were up 5% organically compared to the first quarter of 2021, despite continued supply constraints as the ongoing flight-hour recovery led to more than 25% year-over-year sales growth in both air transport aftermarket and business and general aviation aftermarket. Commercial original equipment grew double digits in the first quarter as air transport original equipment returned to growth. That was partially offset by lower business and general aviation original equipment volumes. Growth from commercial aerospace was partially offset by defense and space sales that were down 14% in the quarter. Aerospace segment margins contracted as expected in the first quarter to 27.4% due to higher sales of lower-margin original equipment products, the impact of inflation and the absence of a one-time gain in 2021, partially offset by our pricing actions. Turning to Building Technologies where sales were up 8% organically, led by favorable pricing across the building products portfolio, partially offset by lower volume in building projects. Orders were up double digits in the first quarter as a result of strong demand for fire products and building management systems. Backlog growth continued in building solutions projects and services, giving us confidence for the remainder of 2022. In addition, our healthy buildings portfolio maintained its momentum with orders over $100 million in the first quarter. Segment margins expanded 100 basis points to 23.5% due to our pricing actions and our favorable sales mix, partially offset by cost inflation. In Performance Materials and Technologies, sales grew 6% organically in the quarter despite an approximately 1% headwind from Russia sales. Growth was led by advanced materials, where the business experienced double-digit growth despite lower automotive refrigerant volumes due to supply constraints affecting automotive OE production. Process solutions sales growth was led by thermal solutions and lifecycle solutions and services. Sparta Systems grew approximately 20% and turned an operating profit in the quarter earlier than expected in our acquisition model. UOP sales were down in the quarter due to lower process technology equipment volumes, although sustainable technology solutions continued to excel, growing over 75% organically year-over-year. Orders increased double digits year-over-year, headlined by over 20% growth in process solutions. Segment margins expanded 230 basis points in the quarter to 20.8%, driven by favorable pricing and sales mix, partially offset by cost inflation. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, sales decreased 15% organically in the quarter. Remember that the first quarter of 2021 was near the height of our COVID-driven mask demand, creating a 9% year-over-year comparison headwind in the quarter. Productivity solutions and services, advanced sensing technologies and our gas detection businesses all grew at double-digit rates in the quarter despite the supply-constrained environment, highlighting the strength in much of the underlying SPS portfolio. As we expected, the timing of Intelligrated sales is shaping up to be a mirror image of 2021 with sales down in the first quarter, and we expect growth in the back half of the year. Segment margins expanded 20 basis points to 14.5%, led by favorable pricing and sales mix, partially offset by lower volume leverage and cost inflation. Honeywell Connected Enterprise continues to underpin the growth we are seeing across the portfolio. In the first quarter, recurring revenue grew over 15% with SaaS growth of over 50%, led by the Sparta business. We also saw double-digit growth in our connected buildings, cyber and connected industrial solutions. So for overall Honeywell, our execution allowed us to deliver 10 basis points of segment margin improvement, 10 basis points above the high end of our guide with margin expansion in PMT, HBT and SPS, ending the quarter at 21.1%. And keep in mind, this expansion is net of a 30 basis point year-over-year headwind associated with our investment in Quantinuum. On EPS, we delivered first quarter GAAP earnings per share of $1.64 and adjusted earnings per share of $1.91, which was down $0.01 year-over-year. A bridge for adjusted earnings per share from 1Q ‘21 to 1Q ‘22 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Segment profit was a $0.01 headwind, driven primarily by lower volume and supply chain constraints, partially offset by strong price realization. A lower effective tax rate, 22% this year versus 22.3% last year, drove a $0.01 tailwind. Share count reduction drove a $0.04 year-over-year tailwind to earnings per share. We saw a $0.05 headwind from below-the-line items, primarily due to lower pension income and increased repositioning. In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we suspended substantially all our sales, distribution and service activities in Russia. And as a result, we recorded a charge of $183 million or a $0.27 impact to our GAAP EPS. Moving to cash, we generated $50 million of free cash flow in the quarter, which was closely aligned to our expectations. This decrease was driven by higher working capital, including lower payables and higher receivables from strong 4Q collections, in addition to higher inventory as we continue to work through the constrained supply chain environment. Higher cash taxes due to the impact of tax legislation and R&D capitalization were also a free cash flow headwind in the quarter, consistent with our full year guidance. Finally, as Darius mentioned earlier, we continue to leverage our strong balance sheet, deploying $2 billion towards high-return opportunities for our shareholders. Notably, we repurchased 5.5 million shares for $1 billion in the first quarter as we executed on our updated commitment to buy back $4 billion in shares in 2022. We also paid approximately $670 million in dividends, spent approximately $180 million in capital expenditures and invested approximately $180 million in M&A as we closed the acquisition of US Digital Designs. So overall, we executed better than expected, managing through a very difficult first quarter and accelerated our capital deployment as promised. Now let’s turn to Slide 6 to talk about our second quarter and full year guidance. Signs of the recovery continue to unfold in our key markets, underpinned by strong orders growth across many of our businesses, as Darius highlighted in his opening. While uncertainties and persistent challenges remain in the macroeconomic backdrop, our rigorous operating principles have enabled us to demonstrate our agility and resiliency, positioning us well for the recovery ahead. Our end-market setup continues to be strong with ongoing improvement in global flight hours, return to public spaces and elevated oil prices. Global energy production continues to transition to a low-carbon future. And Honeywell will lead that evolution with our strategically differentiated and sustainable technologies. We expect supply chain impacts to remain as challenging in the second quarter as they were in the first quarter but to start to abate as capacity for electronic components comes online in 3Q. We’re confident in the eventual return to normalcy in the aerospace supply chain. However, the timing remains difficult to call. Inflation will continue to be a significant headwind. However, our strategic pricing actions will continue to dampen impact to margins throughout the year. In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we suspended substantially all our sales, distribution and service activities in Russia, representing approximately 1% of total 2021 sales for Honeywell that we do not expect to return this year. In addition, we’re actively monitoring and navigating the worsening COVID-19 lockdown situation in China that is creating sales and supply chain risk. With that as a backdrop, we expect second quarter sales to be in the range of $8.5 billion to $8.8 billion, down 2% to up 2% on an organic basis, or flat to up 4%, excluding the 1 point impact of the mask sales decline and the 1 point impact of lost Russian sales. This sales range assumes that COVID-19 lockdowns in China alleviate in May and that the Chinese operating environment remains relatively normal. Despite the ongoing macro uncertainties, we now expect full year sales of $35.5 billion to $36.4 billion, which represents an increase of $100 million on the low end from our prior guidance, up 4% to 7% organically, with accelerated growth as the year progresses. That represents organic growth of 6% to 9%, excluding the 1 point impact of the lower mask demand and 1 point impact of lost Russian sales. We expect that our disciplined price actions will keep us ahead of the current inflationary environment, contributing approximately 5% to our sales growth, which is higher than we anticipated in our original guide and offsetting the majority of the approximately $400 million of lost Russia sales. Now let’s take a moment to walk through the second quarter and full year expectations by segment. An update on our 2022 end market outlook can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Starting with Aerospace, the overall industry supply chain complex continues to be a challenge, but we do expect to see moderate improvement throughout the year. Sequential growth in flight hours will lead to another quarter of robust growth for our air transport and business and general aviation aftermarket businesses. This momentum will carry through to the end of ‘22 with growth led by the air transport aftermarket. With build rates improving as expected, business and general aviation original equipment will grow sequentially each quarter for the balance of 2022. As ‘22 progresses and our comps ease, defense and space will see sequential improvement from the first quarter and return to year-over-year growth in the second half. We still expect full year organic sales growth for Aerospace to be up high single digits. Growth in the original equipment will lead to mix-related margin headwinds throughout the year. But we expect Aero margins to grow sequentially from the first half to the second half. In Building Technologies, we expect momentum to continue with sales growth both sequentially and year-over-year throughout 2022 as supply chain constraints, particularly around semiconductors, begin to ease and we deliver on strong demand for fire and security products and building management systems. Our targeted pricing actions will also provide growth on top of that unlocked volume. We expect building solutions to return to growth in the second quarter and rebound well into the second half, finishing the year off strong. Underpinning the growth throughout the portfolio are our healthy buildings offering, which will benefit from increased demand for air quality and touchless technologies. Higher government spending on infrastructure will provide additional growth opportunities for us as well. Overall, we now expect full year organic sales growth of high single digits to double digits, trending better than expected. We continue to work diligently to combat the current inflationary environment. And our cost controls and pricing actions will ensure that we maintain and build upon our margin expansion in both the second quarter and the back half of the year. In Performance Materials and Technologies, the macro setup remains favorable for our portfolio as we are uniquely positioned to both participate in the oil and gas reinvestment cycle as well as enable the energy transition. However, PMT has the largest exposure to Russia among our segments. And our decision to substantially suspend operations in the country represents a near-term sales growth headwind, particularly in UOP. Process solutions project orders are expected to remain strong throughout the year. And volumes in the products businesses will increase as supply availability improves. In UOP, we see sequential improvement in the second quarter and throughout the year as catalyst reloads increase in refining markets, and we are encouraged by the order pipeline for our sustainable technology. UOP is also a significant contributor to the liquefied natural gas capacity globally. And recent government announcements suggest incremental LNG capacity may ramp beyond what has already been committed, representing a promising opportunity for the business. Advanced materials pricing will continue to be a tailwind throughout the year. And we are expanding capacity to position ourselves for further growth. In total, we still expect PMT sales to be up mid to high single digits for the year. PMT margins will benefit from our pricing and productivity actions. And we expect sequential and year-over-year margin expansion in 2Q and continued sequential improvement in the second half. Turning to Safety and Productivity Solutions. We expect productivity solutions and services, advanced sensing technologies and gas detection to build on their momentum from the first quarter and continue to grow throughout the year. These businesses saw a year-over-year backlog growth of over 25% in 1Q and have demonstrated their ability to execute in difficult macro conditions, giving us confidence in the growth trajectory there, especially as the supply chain environment improves. Lower COVID-related mask demand will continue to be a year-over-year drag in 2Q. But as we enter the second half of the year, we will lap the difficult pandemic comps and personal protective equipment sales will return to growth, led by other product offerings in the portfolio. In Intelligrated, we’re encouraged by the progress we have made in improving our operational efficiency and profitability. And we’re increasing our focus on project selectivity, finding the right balance between top and bottom line growth as we discussed. We still expect SPS sales to be flattish year-over-year for the full year with sequential improvement each quarter. However, we anticipate margins to expand sequentially throughout the year as business mix, pricing and volume compound. Now let me turn to our expectations for the other core guided metrics. For second quarter segment margins, we expect to be in the range of 20.5% to 20.9%, resulting in 10 to 50 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion. Excluding the 30 basis point headwind from Quantinuum, we expect margins to expand 40 to 80 basis points. Second quarter net below-the-line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of $0 to $45 million with a range of repositioning between $40 million and $80 million as we continue to fund ongoing restructuring projects. We expect the second quarter effective tax rate to be approximately 24% and the average share count to be approximately 687 million shares. As a result, we expect adjusted second quarter earnings per share between $1.98 and $2.08, down 2% to up 3% year-over-year. Turning to the full year. We continue to expect segment margins to expand 10 to 50 basis points, supported by higher sales volumes, price/cost management and our continued rigor on fixed costs. Excluding the 30 basis point headwind from Quantinuum, we expect margins to expand 40 to 80 basis points in the year. SPS will lead the margin expansion for the company as we continue to prioritize profitability in 2022 in that business, followed by HBT and PMT with Aero about flat year-over-year. We continue to expect our full year net below-the-line impact to be in the range of negative $100 million to positive $50 million, including capacity for $300 million to $425 million of repositioning in the year. We expect the full year effective tax rate of approximately 22%. And we now expect a weighted average share count to be in the range of 684 million to 687 million shares for the year, reflecting our updated commitment to repurchase $4 billion of Honeywell shares in 2022. We have raised our full year earnings per share expectations to $8.50 to $8.80, up 5% to 9% adjusted, an increase of $0.10 on both ends versus our prior guidance due to our accelerated share repurchase commitment. We still expect to see free cash flow in the range of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion in 2022 or $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion, excluding the impact of Quantinuum. So in total, we’re raising our full year earnings per share guidance and increasing the midpoint of our sales range, absorbing the impact of external macroeconomic factors. Now let me turn it back to Darius to discuss our enhanced environmental commitment coming out of our recent Investor Day.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Greg. Let’s turn to Slide 7 and talk about the more aspirational approach we’re taking to our ESG commitments. ESG has been part of Honeywell’s DNA for decades. And we have an established track record of success in this area. Since we stood up our sustainability program in 2004, we’ve achieved every one of the ambitious targets we have set for ourselves, reduced our greenhouse gas emissions intensity by approximately 90% while spending over $4 billion on remediation projects to restore thousands of acres of land for our communities. While we’re thrilled in the successes we have had in the past, we believe we still have much to accomplish in the future. We’re currently on track to deliver on our 10-10-10 target set in 2019, further reducing our greenhouse gas emissions while deploying renewable energy projects and improving energy efficiencies at our sites. In addition, last year, we committed to achieving carbon-neutral facilities in operations by 2035, a full 15 years earlier than the Paris climate accords. While these targets are successful in reducing our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, we didn’t stop there. Earlier this year, we submitted a commitment to the Science Based Targets initiative to address our Scope 3 emissions across our value chain. Lowering the environmental footprint of our products, we continue to innovate with products and services that help our customers reduce their own emissions. In addition to our ambitious sustainability targets, we’ve also enhanced our ESG disclosures with additional metrics on our Investor Relations website. These include an ESG data sheet that has metrics for diversity, water, greenhouse gas and more, a defense and space fact sheet that includes more detailed information on our sales makeup and a document that breaks down Honeywell’s many ESG-oriented offerings, which comprise more than 60% of our revenue today. Now let’s turn to Slide 8 for some closing thoughts before we move into Q&A. As always, our value-creation framework helped us successfully navigate the quarter and over-deliver on our commitments. Most of our end markets will continue to recover, and we are optimistic about our future. Despite the ongoing geopolitical challenges, including approximately $400 million of lost Russian sales, we raised the midpoint of our full year sales range and increased our earnings per share expectations. Our value-creation framework is working. With the ongoing recovery of our end market, we remain optimistic about the future of our business. While there is a heightened level of macro uncertainty at present, we remain confident in our ability to execute on the pieces within our control. With that, Sean, let’s move to Q&A.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Darius. Darius, Greg, Anne and Torsten are now available to answer your questions. Shannon, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question is from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is open.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Just wanted to understand maybe on the margins first. So you’re guiding for sort of the second quarter sequentially for revenues to be up maybe $300 million. Margin is down though sequentially. So just trying to understand sort of what are the main segment drivers of that. And then within Aerospace, was the Q1 margin performance in line with what you expected? And what’s the conviction on that margin turning around through the year?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. Well, let me start by saying the margins don’t need to turn around. They are actually quite good at 27.4%. So we’re pretty happy with where they are. And yes, they were in line with what we had expected. We do see them coming down a bit in Q2 though, because as we’ve talked about, the OE equipment margins are not favorable to us. And so we are facing some mix headwind, which those will continue to challenge us as the year goes on. And we also talked a lot about in our Investor Day, our investment increases in R&D, in particular, which again are very important for some of our longer-term programs. So we feel good about where we are. But that is going to be – we do expect a little bit of a sequential tick-down there in Aerospace, in particular, probably get a little bit of a tick-up in SPS. But those are really the – those are probably the two main movers overall. We will also have – our corporate expense generally starts out a little slower in the early part of the year and ramps up again. That’s not big dollars. But as you know, every $10 million is about 10 basis points for the company. So those are really the three things I’d highlight.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks. And then just one very quick follow-up would be on China sourcing. You said, I think, you’re assuming in May, the issues recede in terms of supply chain issues in China from lockdowns. Did you give any kind of dollar number for Q2 of the expected impact?
Darius Adamczyk:
I think, Julian, that’s really impossible to quantify. I mean, what we’re assuming in our guidance range for Q2 is that essentially things come back to kind of normal state in May. That’s the best data we currently have. If you think about our 20 manufacturing facilities that we have in China, about half of them are operating more or less normally and the other half are kind of impaired, to some extent, by either supply chain challenges inbound and/or the operation itself. But we do expect that to improve in May and get back to normal with normal production certainly in June with a steady improvement in May. And to quantify that right now would be impossible. But that underpins our guidance for Q2.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. And if I just would add to that, I mean, how this all continues to happen in China, obviously no one can say for sure. If things like what goes on in Shanghai happened early in the quarter like they are right now, it’s going to impact our April. We’re already seeing that. But assuming everything comes back, as Darius mentioned, as things open back up after the first week of May, then we’ve got plenty of time to sort of make up that volume and recover the shipping. But how will that present itself throughout the quarter and the rest of the year really is kind of unpredictable.
Darius Adamczyk:
And as Greg pointed out, timing does matter. I mean, we expected a slightly softer April due to the outages. And with these outages kind of happen in month 1, we have time to recover. We get outages in month 3, it’s going to be a much bigger problem. And frankly, we’re not anticipating that. We’re anticipating a recovery.
Julian Mitchell:
Understood. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Two negatives and two positives. The first, could you just clarify maybe with a little more precision where you expect the Aero margin to come in, in the second quarter, just to kind of like – kind of clear the decks on that? And then also on SPS, the warehouse business, how does that trend kind of sequentially as we go through the year? And then on the positive side, anything that you’re seeing or embedding on a pickup in defense or oil and gas in the second half of the year or maybe that stuff is still out kind of in front of us? Thanks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, let me maybe start on the second of your two questions. So in terms of defense and space, our orders in Q1 were actually quite good. They were double-digit orders growth in defense and space. But I wouldn’t tell you that we’re seeing a big uptick yet due to some of the geopolitical situation. But we do think it could happen. But we’re not going to call it that it’s going to happen until we see it. So the orders growth in Q1, although good, is not really tied to any of the geopolitical situation. And particularly in HPS, we saw good orders growth in Q1. We actually anticipate some strong orders in UOP particularly tied to some of our gas portfolio. So that looks good. So that’s sort of your second question. Greg...
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I don’t know. Steve, we don’t guide individual segments any longer. As you know, we’ve not done that for a while. So we do expect to see margins tick down in Aerospace less than 100 basis points but more than zero. And there is a range around those things as well, which is why we don’t guide it any longer. And as it relates to IGS, that is a low single-digit margin business. We expect that to go up each and every quarter by – think about it as maybe 100-ish basis points per quarter as we work our way through the 2021 job that we took the charge on for last year, which the completion of those will be at zero margin. And we continue to get the benefit of the new projects and our execution improvements throughout the course of the year, which is why again we see both between that as well as volume leverage that we ought to get from our products businesses and the rest of the portfolio. That’s why we see a pretty consistent margin expansion sequentially quarter after quarter after quarter in SPS, which is why our best – it’s going to be our best grower of the year.
Darius Adamczyk:
And just to add to that, I mean, if you take a look at our backlog, which you’ve just provided, commercial activity is not our issue. I think commercial activity is about as strong as we’ve ever seen it. You see the improving backlog positions, orders positions. And I think this is all about supply chain. And there is still unknowns around supply chain. I think on the semiconductor side, we probably have seen the bottom. But I would tell you the aerospace supply chain is still challenged. And our de-commit rate from our suppliers is high. And that’s why it’s so hard to call this thing because when you get a pretty high de-commit rate, it’s difficult to call exactly what that’s going to look like in Q2, Q3 and Q4. So we remain optimistic that it’s going to continue to improve. But we’ve got to kind of see it in the numbers.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. Great, thanks a lot, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Hey, I was wondering if you could share a little more color on the SAF project with APD, Air Products right? I mean, kind of the – maybe the first really big benchmark deal that I’ve seen, $1 billion project. Is there any way you can give us an idea of just the Honeywell scope in terms of kind of the front-end capital opportunity and then kind of what the – kind of the ongoing recurring revenue on catalysts and other things might be on a project of that size and scope?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, I think it’s a couple of things. So I would characterize it the following. And we don’t release specific numbers to that project. But think about it as two dimensions. The first one is licensing and the technology itself, which can be recognized in one or two different ways, either an upfront paid-up license or a license that’s recognized as a royalty rate as SAF is produced. And then the second stream being the use of the catalyst itself to actually drive that SAF conversion. So this is not the only project that we’re going to be involved with. When we look at SAF and green fuels, we’ve won something like a double-digit number of projects in the last, call it, 6 to 9 months as we’ve been on an incredible run. It’s just one example of what we do. At some point, we’re going to give you a bit of a framework. We’re not ready to share that yet in terms of exactly what it looks like. But it’s going to be definitely margin-accretive. And you should think about it, very much like you said, as a recurring revenue base based on the catalyst reloads, which are going to be required to drive either SAF or green fuels and green gasoline.
Jeff Sprague:
Great. And maybe just a housekeeping question for Greg. What was going on with minority interest in the quarter? Did something change with an ownership position? And what would you point us to going forward there?
Greg Lewis:
Minority interest, you are probably seeing the full quarter impact of Quantinuum, because if you remember, we closed that in December. And so now we are getting a full quarter of that minority interest. We get the consolidation of that, which you see in the P&L, which is all the OpEx. But then we get the offset for our partners, 46% share, going the other way.
Jeff Sprague:
So, any direction on the go-forward or the full year on that item?
Greg Lewis:
We can look at it separately in our call later. I am not sure I have that right off the top of my head.
Jeff Sprague:
Great. Alright. Thanks a lot. I will pass it.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks Jeff.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Your line is open.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hi, good morning Scott.
Scott Davis:
Yes. So, in your full year guide of 4% to 7% on volumes, how much of that is price? And are you still raising price? Do you still need to raise price to offset this inflation that doesn’t seem to be going away?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. No, see, now we are ongoing working our price. I mean we basically are bumping up sort of the benefit of price by 1 percentage point. I think the one thing that, Scott, that I think you picked up, I mean essentially in this guide, it is a substantial raise to our guide range. I mean we didn’t explicitly say that, but it’s obvious. Because we are basically absorbing a $400 million hit due to Russia with commensurate margin rate of over $100 million. So, this is a fairly significant raise to our outlook. The way we can overcome that hit is through price. And we think now we are basically projecting an incremental point of price to a range of 5% or so.
Greg Lewis:
5%. Yes, we had talked about 4% in the original guide. We now see it as 5% as you saw from the release. I mean we were up 7% in the first quarter.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. And because we started doing this price increase a bit more aggressively in Q4 and Q1, obviously, as we get later in the year that starts to lap itself. Although I will tell you that we are going to stay on top of this thing, and we are continuing to chase inflation and trying to stay ahead. And obviously, we have to do more price increases here in Q2 to continue to stay ahead of it.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So again, just simplistically, we lost a point from Russia. We picked up a point on price. We kept the overall organic number to 10%.
Scott Davis:
Okay. That’s my one question. I will pass it on. Thank you, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Thanks Scott.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Thanks. Good morning guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Nicole DeBlase:
Just maybe digging into HPS and PMT a little bit more and what you are seeing from an order perspective and as the higher oil price is reflecting its way through more interesting or advanced customer conversations?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. No, I mean I think as you saw in the quarter, we had very good order rates, I mean double-digit, north of 20% order rates in HPS. UOP was a little lumpy. Frankly, our LST business was strong. Our UPT was a little bit less, so we expect a strong booking quarter in Q2. We will be – overall, particularly for UOP, we see strong orders growth, particularly as it relates to our natural gas-oriented portfolio. So, think about absorbents, gas processing, midstream, LNG terminals and all that business, it’s – we are a big partner of Venture Global to some of the projects that they are completing and their expansion. So, overall, we are very bullish in terms of what’s going on, particularly as it relates to the gas infrastructure that’s currently being built up both in North America, the Middle East and Europe.
Nicole DeBlase:
Thanks Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Andrew Obin:
I guess – good morning. So, I will ask sort of a long question. So, short part, can you just talk about UOP, a revenue decline sort of despite an easier comp and growing refinery output? Just what’s the short-term explanation? I think I missed it. And a longer term question, how do you think about longer term impact of Russian oil having to find new markets? I am just sort of thinking about the fact that globally, you will need to recalibrate a lot of these refineries, right, so to take Russian oil and then to take oil that will replace Russian oil in places like Europe. So, first one near-term UOP and second one, how do we think about longer term opportunity on refinery upgrades? Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Sure, Andrew. I will take the first one. And from a short-term perspective, two simple things to think about. I mean first off, the way we had our plan set up was we were going to be completing some projects in UPT that had already been in flight. So, we are going to have – as that winds down, we are going to have a year-over-year comp in the equipment business in the early part of the year that will be negative. And we see the catalyst business growing throughout the remainder of the year, which is going to support the growth rate more beyond that. So, it’s – and the other aspect of that is back to Russia, as an example, the biggest place we are going to see the impact of Russia is going to be in UOP. And so UOP being down, I think it was 9% in the quarter, roughly 7% of that is from the loss of the Russia volume in 1Q.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. UOP gets disproportionately – I talked about the 1% hit for our revenues for the year. That’s disproportionately UOP-related. And you saw that already in Q1. So, that’s just to help that frame it up. As it relates to your second question, I mean essentially, in terms of Russia oil, I mean simplistically said, instead of flowing less, we think it’s going to start flowing south. And I think the good news about us is that we have a global presence across the West and the South. And I think that benefits obviously a lot of our PMT businesses. And as I mentioned earlier, kind of the gas infrastructure build-out in Western Europe, which will take place both in Western Europe, but also in the Middle East and in the U.S., will also have positive benefit to our business. So, all-in-all, I mean I think we are well positioned there.
Andrew Obin:
How long do you think it would take to quantify it for the industry?
Darius Adamczyk:
I mean that’s hard to answer right now. I think we are still kind of weeks into this conflict, so we will see. I mean we are obviously involved in a lot of the discussions of the new projects and so on, but – and I am very, very confident that any of the build-out that’s going to take place, particularly of our modular design concepts, which really revolutionized LNG, I am quite confident that we are going to be a player in that space.
Andrew Obin:
That is nice. Thanks a lot.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi, good morning Darius. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Can you talk about price a little bit more because it was really good in the quarter, up 7%? How are you seeing price and inflation across the business, given some are shorter cycle and some are longer cycle, like aerospace? Can you maybe quantify what you saw across the business segments, the inflation burden or the price/mix benefit?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean let me start. I mean if you think about price/cost, the price inflation, think about a 7% and 5% number, in that kind of neighborhood. I mean we – this is really the benefit of Honeywell Digital. We talked a lot about that at Investor Day. But I now can tell you exactly on the impact of price/cost for every of our 37 business units and exactly what it’s going to look like going forward for the next three quarters. And I can tell you that in bps. It’s really enabled us to establish an operating system, where we know what we need to do in terms of price. We know what we do in terms of coverage and where that business unit will be. And it’s a weekly rhythm that we are on with all the businesses. As a matter of fact, we have got a meeting later on today to talk about that topic, and we continue to stay on top of it. But it’s not as simple in some businesses than others. I mean some businesses, we have contractual obligations, contractual limitations in terms of what we can pass on and when. And we are finding ways to be – to do that. I mean everybody knows that inflation is with us. It’s probably going to continue to be with us. We are going to stay diligent, and we are very pleased with our results and able to stay ahead of the price/cost. I think Greg, do you have anything you want to add?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. The only – to your point, just maybe expanding on your contractual obligations and also protections, so we have some protections as well. So, as you could probably guess, the price equation is greater in SPS, HBT, PMT. And we are a little bit more constrained, but also a little bit more protected in aerospace, where we have more of the longer term contracts.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi. Good morning guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Yes. Good morning. So, just a question on the supply chain side, I mean I think we are still kind of hit or miss in terms of companies out there seeing improvement into 2Q and over the balance of the year. It seems like particularly in HBT and maybe some in SPS, a bit more kind of sequential improvement through the year than maybe others have seen. Is this finding more suppliers? Is it kind of an overall commentary that you guys have seen out of all the base? Kind of surprised that the China lockdowns have an impact. But could you speak to sort of how you are getting that improvement?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean there is – yes, there is a lot of variables here. Let me try to unpack it a little bit. I mean HBT and SPS, the supply chain is complex due to the variety installed base of our products. It is somewhat contained primarily to the semiconductors. And when you think about semiconductors, you are talking about the 5 to 10 core suppliers that we are monitoring. So, it’s actually a little bit easier for us to get our arms around the situation and know when things will come in, when they won’t come in. And we are cautiously optimistic about an improving supply source coming through for Q2, Q3 and Q4. And frankly, looking into Q2 from the beginning vis-à-vis Q1 or Q4, we actually looked a little bit better than we did in the other quarters. So, we have reason to be cautiously optimistic, provided we don’t get de-commits on semiconductors. Now, when you get into the Aero segment, it actually becomes a bit more challenged. And to give you some very specific numbers, our level of de-commits, which is sort of last-minute cancellations or push-outs, was at a level of 22%. I mean that’s what makes it so difficult. It was actually worse than in Q4, where it was about 19%. We are counting on some improvement in Q2 and Q3 and Q4. But now you are not talking about less than 10 suppliers, you are talking about tens, if not hundreds of suppliers. And trying to really figure out exactly how well they are going to deliver and when it becomes more challenging. Obviously, we have deployed our own people, our resources to that supply base to help them through some of their capacity challenges. We have got a program around that. But it is challenged. And I can’t tell you that we have a full and perfect view as to exactly what’s going to happen. We are working through it. And as you can see, we certainly have the backlog more than to support the business. And we are not just watching. We are actually doing and we have got a substantial force of people to just work there at aero supply chain.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning everyone. Thanks for the question. Before I get into my question is, we have got a few inbounds, just to clarify the comments on China. Did you say early May, the first week of May in terms of the Shanghai lockdowns moderating?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, that target keeps moving. But we think in the – certainly in the first half of May, we expect some ease-off in terms of the Shanghai lockdowns. That’s what we have built into our guidance, if you will.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. Great. Thanks Darius. And then just a follow-on with the supply chain constraints, particularly in Aero, the commercial aftermarket, up 20%, not too shabby. But is that growth and that ramp-up, that recovery being constrained by supply chain, i.e., it’s not just OE and defense, it’s also aftermarket? And then within the aftermarket recovery, are we seeing yet the wide-body sort of ramp coming through yet, or is that still on to come?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So, it absolutely is going to be a constraint on the aftermarket part of the business. I mean certainly, our MSP power by the hour is going to be rev/rec just based on flight hours. But the bit of that, that’s tied to spares and repairs is going to have a physical constraint for sure. And that’s also, by the way, exactly what creates a little bit of our margin pressure as well because we have got firm commitments to our OEs. And so that creates a bit of a squeeze between where the products will go in the chain and what the profitability around that is. So, that is for sure an issue. Are we seeing some return to wide-body travel, we are. I wouldn’t call it dramatic at this point in Q1. But we are seeing a little bit of a sequential move there. But we have said all along, that is really going to be tied very much to travel across the globe as opposed to domestically. And so when – particularly with China locking down, and that curtails, of course, anything in and out of China even longer.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. And to be – just a couple of other things here, I mean, yes, I mean as Greg pointed out, wide-body travel has been still constrained and limited. And that’s still upside to go for us, given particularly our installed base on those aircraft. But the fact is if you look at our backlog position, we are in tremendous shape in Aerospace. And probably, the biggest issues we see is in defense and space, where we have a growing past-due backlog at a faster rate than even some of the other segments. So really, we don’t – we are not that worried about the commercial inbound. And we saw just an incredible order rate, strong double-digit order rate in Q1. All our focus is really on output in the supply chain. We get that going, I think very, very good, very, very quickly because…
Greg Lewis:
And just again to put some numbers behind it, we talked about our past-due backlog going up $0.5 billion in the quarter. About $200 million of that was in Aero. About half of that was in defense and space, but the other half was in commercial. So, there is clearly an impact in both areas. But as Darius said, as that unlocks, then the volume and the leverage that will come along with that are really attractive.
Nigel Coe:
That’s great color. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Greg Lewis:
Hi Deane.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning Deane.
Deane Dray:
I would like to stay in Aero. If I look at the segment outlook, the defense and space being flat surprises me a bit. And at the Analyst Meeting, Darius, you said you would not be surprised to see that be at high-single digits this year, given the uptick in international defense budgets. Is it the fact that the U.S. defense budget is flat offsets that? But why is that arrow not pointing higher?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, because we are really not seeing a lot of new orders yet to some of the geopolitical conflicts to replenish the inventories. I mean I think – and by the way, checking with some of the other OEs, that’s not necessarily unusual so that could be an uptick. When we talked about at Investor Day, there was some built-in optimism around that coming in. And I still think it will happen. I am just not going to call it yet until we actually see the orders coming through. Having said that, we did see double-digit orders growth in defense and space in Q1 just naturally without the addition of plus-ups in the defense budget. So, I think it could still be at that level. I am just not going to call that until we actually see it more pronounced in our orders rate. And I am still optimistic that it will happen.
Deane Dray:
Great. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Deane.
Greg Lewis:
We have time for one more question.
Operator:
Our last question is from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Your line is open.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Good morning everyone. Thanks for taking me in.
Greg Lewis:
Hey Andy.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hi Andy, good morning.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Darius, 9% is the highest backlog growth Honeywell has recorded this cycle despite macro uncertainty. Do you think the higher backlog is just a reflection of the handoff in your businesses from short and long cycle demand, or is this maybe a function of the fact that if we go back to what you said during the heart of the pandemic that Honeywell’s portfolio wasn’t really set up well in the pandemic, maybe the opposite is happening now? And would you expect your orders and backlog trajectory to stay at these elevated levels for a while?
Darius Adamczyk:
You just nailed it, Andy. Yes, that’s exactly – you have got it exactly right, which is as we look in, because we look at short cycle and long cycle. And you see now a little bit of a transition from its slow, because short cycle is still very good for us, but now we are starting to slowly see that long cycle coming through. You see it in our backlog. You see it in our order rates. And now it’s the time of the cycle where the long cycle businesses will start to have a bit more traction. And a lot of people are saying there may or there may not be a recession in the next 6 months to 12 months to 18 months. But I certainly hope it doesn’t happen. But if it does, I actually think that Honeywell can weather the storm quite well, given the kind of backlog position in the markets we are in, which is energy and aerospace, which frankly have been hurt disproportionally hard during the pandemic and now are starting to come back strong. So I am very, very optimistic about kind of the position, the backlog we are in. And I think you said it exactly right, we are seeing kind of a transition occurring slowly, but surely. And it’s not because our short cycle is weak, but the long cycle is now starting to slowly pick up.
Andy Kaplowitz:
I appreciate it Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Nice. Thank you, Andy.
Operator:
Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Darius Adamczyk for closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. We delivered strong first quarter results in a typical Honeywell fashion and have and will continue to navigate the numerous uncertainties with operational rigor and agility in order to drive superior shareholder returns. Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's Fourth Quarter Earnings Release and 2022 Outlook Call. . As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sean, please go ahead.
Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Ari. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings and 2022 Outlook Conference Call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. Also joining us are Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Anne Madden; and Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, Torsten Pilz. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Honeywell also uses our website as a means of disclosing information, which may be of interest or material to our investors and for complying with disclosures under -- obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor our Investor Relations website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, webcasts and social media. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions, and we ask you that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we'll review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year '21, discuss our 2022 outlook and share our guidance for the first quarter of 2022 and full year '22. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on Slide 2. We delivered a strong fourth quarter despite a challenging backdrop that included an accelerated inflationary environment, ongoing supply chain constraints and persistent COVID-19 variants. I'm pleased for our disciplined execution as we navigate these challenges, capitalize on the ongoing recovery in our end markets. We delivered on our fourth quarter commitments for sales, segment margin and adjusted earnings per share despite these headwinds, with fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.09, up 1% year-over-year and just above the midpoint of our guidance. Organic sales were down 2% year-over-year, and that was heavily impacted by the COVID mass declines and fewer days in the fiscal quarter, which Greg will touch on later. Our focus on differentiated solutions drove double-digit fourth quarter organic sales growth in the commercial aerospace aftermarket, productivity solutions and services, advanced sensing technologies and recurring connected software businesses. Segment margin expanded 30 basis points year-over-year, led by strong pricing actions that we took again this quarter to address the headwinds we faced from inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions. These swift pricing actions allow us to stay ahead of the inflation curve, driving a 5% increase year-over-year on top line and yielding approximately 50 basis points of margin expansions net of inflation. We generated $2.6 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, 4% above the 4Q 2020, achieving 178% adjusted conversion. In terms of capital deployment, we put $2.1 billion of cash to work in the fourth quarter. Looking at the entire year, orders across Honeywell grew double digits organically and backlog increased 7% to $27.7 billion driven by strength in many of our segments as we entered 2022. We finished 2021 with 4% organic sales growth, 60 basis points of margin expansion and $8.06 of adjusted earnings per share, up 14% year-over-year. We generated $5.7 billion of free cash flow in the year, resulting in adjusted conversion of 102% or 17% of revenue, a very strong result. Our earnings per share and our free cash flow performance was above our initial guidance range shared at the start of 2021, demonstrating our ability to deliver on our commitments despite unforeseen challenges and shifting economic conditions. In the appendix of this presentation is a slide highlighting our guidance progression throughout 2021 as well as our performance against these guides. On our capital deployment strategy, we have maintained a balanced approach over the past several years, consistently deploying more than 100% of operating cash flow to fund share repurchases, dividends, M&A and capital expenditures. This past year was no exception. In fact, 2021 marks the highest level of capital deployment in the last 6 years. Despite the challenges we faced in 2021, we deployed $8.5 billion of capital, demonstrating our commitment to investing in high-return opportunities in any environment. We invested $1.6 billion in M&A, adding strategic assets to our portfolio that enhance our technology offerings, innovation and ultimately, our long-term growth potential. Specifically, we completed 4 transactions, including Sparta Systems, Fiplex, Performix and the $270 million we contribute to Quantinuum combination, which I'll talk about -- more about in a moment. We spent $900 million on capital expenditures to continue to build technologies to make our world safer, more efficient and more sustaining. We deployed $3.4 billion to repurchase shares, reducing our weighted average share count by 1.5%. And finally, we maintained a strong dividend policy, paying out $2.6 billion and raising our dividend again for the 12th time in 11 years. Looking forward, I continue to be encouraged by the strength we are seeing in many areas of our portfolio as we continue to execute on our rigorous and proven value creation framework, underpinned by our accelerator operating system that drives outstanding shareholder value. Next, let's turn to Slide 3 to discuss some exciting wins in our Sustainable Technology Solutions business. We continue to make substantial gains for our sustainability business. In the fourth quarter, we announced the commercialization of our UpCycle Process Technology, a revolutionary new process that expands the types of plastics that can be recycled. This process can produce feedstocks used to make recycled plastics with a much lower carbon footprint and has the potential to increase the amount of global plastic waste that can be recycled to 90%. In addition, just last week, we announced our intent to form a joint venture with Avangard Innovative, America's largest plastics recycler, to build an advanced recycling plant in Texas. The facility will use our UpCycle Process Technology and is expected to have the capacity to transform 30,000 metric tons of mixed waste plastics into Honeywell recycled polymer feedstocks per year. We also recently announced that we've entered into an agreement with FREYR Battery, the intent to provide smart energy storage solutions to address the needs of a wide range of commercial and industrial customers alike. FREYR will leverage Honeywell's leading technology offerings, including integrated automation, field instrumentation and security integration solutions on manufacturing processes. In turn, Honeywell will purchase 38 gigawatt hours of battery cells produced by FREYR from multiple energy storage system applications. Battery energy storage systems technology development is vital to the continued decarbonization of global power system as it will enable the transition to renewable energy sources. In the fourth quarter, we announced an agreement with the University of Texas at Austin that will enable the lower cost capture of carbon dioxide emissions from power plants and heavy industry. We have committed to achieve carbon neutrality in our own operations and facilities by 2035. We are committed to helping our customers use their carbon footprint as well. We'll leverage UT Austin's proprietary advanced solvent technology to help power, steel, cement and other industrial plants lower their emissions and meet their sustainability goals. Finally, we saw tremendous traction in our green fuels business, which uses UOP's Ecofining technology to produce high-quality drop-in fuels from sustainable sources. Over the last few months, we recorded 6 important wins, including 2 large multinational companies. In addition, Diamond Green Diesel is using Ecofining technology to produce renewable diesel. They plan on having the capacity to produce over 1 billion gallons per year by the second half of 2022. These are just 4 select examples from our vast portfolio of sustainable offerings. We will continue to innovate, demonstrating that Honeywell will be a key player of the oncoming energy transition. Now let's turn to the next slide to take a look at some of the big commercial developments and how we are aggressively investing in growth. If you've been following our press releases over the past quarters, including the examples highlighted on the previous slide, you are well aware of the successes we are having with new innovations and partnerships. We have many growth opportunities across the portfolio with new products, businesses or entirely new markets. These areas present high return opportunities to deploy our CapEx and OpEx spend to create value for the future. To highlight a few examples, in 2022, we are increasing CapEx investment to expand our Solstice production capacity, commercialize our advanced plastics recycling technology and build additional generations of both commercial and development quantum computers. To fund key investment priorities in '22, we plan to spend $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion in CapEx, up $200 million versus 2021, up 25% versus the prior 3 years. Our 2022 research and development priorities will be continued innovation in sustainable technologies, developing our next-generation flight deck and investment in new engine development, to name a few. R&D for '22 will be up approximately $200 million or 15% year-over-year and up 10% versus the prior 3 years. Our internal spending on capital projects in the R&D has consistently been the highest return deployment of our capital. We'll continue to make these investments to drive our future growth. Also, Honeywell Digital, one of the 3 main transformation initiatives, has fundamentally changed the way we work and resulted in $1 billion of cumulative sales, productivity, and working capital benefits since 2018. We'll continue to invest in our digitization efforts to drive efficiencies and produce valuable data-driven insights. While this may be a modest drag on our cash generation in '22, these investments are crucial to accelerating our growth and drive transformation across our portfolio. Let's turn to Slide 5 to take a closer look at Quantinuum, which is one of the major breakthrough initiatives for Honeywell. In the fourth quarter, we completed our previously announced business combination of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum to form a new company, Quantinuum. As mentioned in our investor communications throughout 2021, this combination marries the leading quantum computing hardware, the leading quantum computing software to form the largest and most advanced integrated stand-alone quantum computing company in the world. Quantinuum technology will help solve some of the world's most pressing challenges, including breakthroughs in drug discovery and delivery, material science and industrial optimization, to just name a few. Quantinuum cybersecurity offering launched in December. Quantum Origin is the world's first commercial product built upon quantum computers that delivers outcomes that classical computers could not achieve. This revolutionary new product will be crucial to companies and governments, who need to ensure protection of sensitive information against adversaries and criminals. With the introduction of Quantum Origin, which is already serving Fortune 500 customers today, we expect Quantinuum to reach approximately $2 billion of sales by 2026, 1 year earlier than the estimate we provided in our leadership webcast back in November. Upon the completion of the combination, Honeywell invested $270 million into Quantinuum, and Honeywell currently owns a majority stake. We expect a slight margin headwind of 30 basis points to Honeywell in 2022 due to increased R&D spend associated with Quantinuum, as shown on the previous slide. Overall, we expect Quantinuum to be $150 million headwind to EBITDA. However, this R&D investment will yield great returns as we accelerate the commercialization of this revolutionary technology. The appendix of this presentation contains a slide explaining the 2022 financial impact to Honeywell in more detail. We believe this unique opportunity for investors to gain exposure to an early-stage growth technology company at an industrial multiple. Quantinuum is the best positioned company to lead quantum computing and has all the building blocks to be the frontrunner in what is projected to be a $1 trillion industry. Now I will turn the call over to Greg to discuss our fourth quarter results and 2022 outlook in more detail.
Gregory Lewis:
Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to Slide 6. As Darius highlighted, we delivered on our financial commitments despite a very difficult operating environment. Fourth quarter sales declined 2% organically as supply chain constraints continued in the quarter, predominantly in Aero, HBT and SPS. The quarter also had difficult year-over-year comps with lower COVID-related mass demand impacting growth by 2 percentage points and 6 fewer days than fiscal 4Q 2020, which is worth approximately 3 percentage points. Turning to the segments. Aerospace fourth quarter sales were down 3% organically compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 as we continue to manage through the supply chain constraints we're facing. Continued flight hour improvement led to over 20% year-over-year growth in air transport aftermarket sales and over 10% growth in business and general aviation aftermarket sales. Business& General Aviation original equipment sales also grew double digits in the quarter. Defense & Space was down 18% year-over-year in the fourth quarter with softness in U.S. defense, partially offset by international defense, which grew sequentially and year-over-year. Segment margins expanded 140 basis points to 29% as a result of value capture, improved business mix with higher aftermarket sales and productivity partially offset by higher cost of materials. Building Technologies sales declined 1% organically year-over-year due to continuing supply chain constraints across the business, partially offset by pricing, though orders were up 4% in the quarter. Backlog in Building Solutions was up double digits year-over-year with growth in both projects and services, positioning HBT for strong performance in 2022. Our Healthy Buildings portfolio finished the year strong with over $200 million of orders in the quarter, bringing the total orders for 2021 to well over $400 million. Segment margins in HBT continue to be strong at 21.1% in the quarter, though it was down 30 basis points year-over-year, driven by lower volume leverage and cost inflation, mostly offset by favorable pricing. In Performance Materials and Technologies, sales were up 2% organically, led by 7% growth in UOP and 5% growth in Advanced Materials. UOP sales growth was driven by higher petrochemical catalyst and gas processing shipments while Advanced Materials benefited from continued double-digit sales growth in Life Sciences and Protective and Industrial Solutions. Process Solutions sales were down 3% organically with slower recovery in projects and supply availability constraining smart energy production. However, orders growth across the HPS portfolio, including double-digit orders growth in the projects businesses, provides confidence in the longer-term outlook for the business. Orders in UOP were up 25% year-over-year, including triple digits in Sustainable Technology Solutions, another signal for strong 2022 growth. PMT segment margins expanded 430 basis points to 23% in the fourth quarter, driven by favorable pricing and productivity, net of inflation. Turning to Safety and Productivity Solutions, where sales were down 6% organically, mainly due to a 12-point impact from COVID-related masks. Intelligrated was flat year-over-year and down sequentially, as expected, as the level of delivery and installation came down from its 2Q peak. Productivity Solutions and Services continues to be a star in the portfolio, along with the Sensing business, both of which had double-digit sales growth in the quarter. SPS backlog remains above $4 billion as declines in the mask business were mostly offset by triple-digit growth in Advanced Sensing and Technologies and over 90% growth in Productivity Solutions and Services, giving us confidence in the future growth. SPS segment margins contracted 450 basis points to 10.8%, driven by lower volume leverage and inefficiencies caused by ongoing supply chain challenges in Intelligrated, which we highlighted in our previous earnings call, and I'll touch on again in a moment. So for overall Honeywell, we delivered 30 basis points of segment margin improvement with margin expansion in PMT and Aero, ending the quarter with segment margins of 21.4%, a 20 basis point sequential improvement versus the third quarter. We drove targeted pricing again in the quarter across the portfolio to combat the accelerated impacts of inflation. On EPS, we delivered fourth quarter GAAP earnings per share of $2.05 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.09, which was up $0.02 year-over-year. A bridge for our adjusted earnings per share from 4Q '20 to 4Q '21 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Segment profit was a $0.03 headwind, driven primarily by lower volume due to fewer days, mask volumes and supply chain constraints, offset by price and cost actions. Higher effective tax rate, 19.7% this year versus 18.9% last year, drove a $0.02 headwind. Share count reduction drove a $0.04 year-over-year tailwind to earnings per share, and we saw a $0.03 benefit from below-the-line items due to higher pension income that was partially offset by increased repositioning and other. Repositioning and other specifically was approximately $160 million, just below the midpoint of our 4Q guidance of $140 million to $215 million and included a $105 million charge in the fourth quarter due to incremental long-term contract labor cost overages in Intelligrated caused by severe supply chain disruptions from COVID-19. The accelerating challenges of supply chain disruptions and labor shortages in the second half of '21, coupled with the hyper growth of the business and the link between material supply and installation efficiency in the Intelligrated model, drove specific identifiable nonrecurring costs, which were recorded in repositioning and other. This charge is forward-looking and accounts for projects which are yet to be completed. In 2022, we expect roughly $30 million to $50 million of carryover costs, the impact of which is incorporated into our 2022 repositioning and other guidance. Other inefficiencies were reflected in the Intelligrated and SPS P&L, as I mentioned earlier in the discussion of the SPS margins. Moving on to cash. We generated $2.6 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, up 4% year-over-year. This increase was driven by lower working capital, including strong collections and world-class payables, offset by higher inventory as we continue to work through the constrained supply chain environment and extended lead times. We also had a $211 million accelerated cash receipt in the quarter from Garrett per our contractual claims under the plan of reorganization signed last year. As a reminder, we include cash receipts from Garrett within free cash flow in order to be comparable to prior periods, where the cash proceeds from the indemnification and reimbursement agreement were recognized. Finally, as Darius mentioned earlier, we deployed $2.1 billion towards high-return opportunities for our shareholders. We paid $680 million in dividends, repurchased $880 million in shares, over delivering on our commitment of a minimum 1% share count in '21, and we deployed approximately $280 million in CapEx and invested $270 million in Quantinuum. So overall, we managed successfully through another challenging quarter and closed out 2021 on a strong note. Now let's turn to Slide 7 to talk about our markets and segment outlook for 2022. We continue to see promising signs of the recovery unfolds as well as encouraging wins in our key markets. The backdrop for 2022 does have a number of uncertainties in it, the ongoing global pandemic, continued supply chain constraints, accelerated inflation and labor market challenges. And at each turn, our rigorous operating principles have enabled us to demonstrate our agility and resiliency battling these situations. Across our end markets, the macro setup continues to be strong. Increased COVID-19 vaccination rates and higher immunity should lessen infection rates, pointing to signs of the pandemic subsiding and leading to continued improvement in global flight hours and returns to buildings. Investments will continue to flow towards transitioning global energy production to a low-carbon future, and Honeywell will continue to lead that evolution as we invest in our strategically differentiated and sustainable technologies. We expect supply chain impacts to remain as challenging in the first half of the year as they were in the third and fourth quarter, and they'll start to abate as the aero supply base ramps up and capacity for electronic components comes online in the third quarter. Inflation will continue to be a significant headwind. However, our agile pricing actions will dampen the impacts to margin throughout the year. Corporate tax legislation continues to be a watch area for both earnings and cash, which I'll talk about a little bit later. As for the segments, in '22, we expect Aerospace to continue to benefit from the recovery in flight hours, leading to robust growth in commercial aftermarket sales. Commercial build rates will continue to improve, especially in air transport, providing growth in original equipment sales, but creating some mix headwinds on margins. Defense & Space sales will experience progressively improved performance as supply chain challenges abate, returning the business to growth in the second half and ending the year roughly flat. In total, we expect Aerospace sales to be up high single digits for the year. Despite some mix pressure and the ramp-up in R&D expenses for the long-term programs, margins will expand as Honeywell Quantum Solutions business investment moves out of Aero and into corporate costs. HBT will see continued strong demand in '22 as the world continues to reopen and sustainable solutions see increased use. We expect end markets to gradually recover throughout the year, including government, education and office buildings. Increased government funding for infrastructure, both in the U.S. and Europe, provide further opportunities across the portfolio. Pressure from supply chain constraints, particularly semiconductors, will impact the business, especially in the first half, but we'll continue to execute on our mitigation actions and expect the business to grow high single digits for the year. We expect our margins to expand, driven by higher sales on our streamlined cost base. Performance Materials and Technologies has one of the most favorable macro setups in our portfolio, and we will see growth accelerate throughout the year. We expect Process Solutions sales to sequentially improve. Process Solutions product orders will continue to grow at a healthy rate following the double-digit orders growth we saw in the fourth quarter of '21 as traditional energy projects begin to gradually recover, and we see strength across new verticals like life sciences and sustainable energy storage that are driving increased demand. The increase in UOP engineering and licensing orders over the past few months gives us confidence in the follow-on Process Solutions projects growth over the medium term. UOP catalyst shipments will remain strong as demand shifts from petrochemicals to refining, where we expect a reload cycle to emerge in the energy space. Advanced Materials demand remains robust, and we expect sales to increase throughout the year, especially as we complete production capacity expansion projects such as our planned increase in our Solstice line of ultra-low global warming potential solutions. In addition to Solstice, our other sustainable offerings in renewable fuels, carbon capture, energy storage and plastics recycling will benefit from the increased customer focus on environmental responsibility and efficiency. In total, we expect PMT sales to be up mid to high single digits for the year. We expect PMT margins to expand as well as a result of continued pricing and productivity actions as well as increased volume leverage. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, demand for productivity solutions and services, advanced sensing technologies and gas detection all remain strong, and their increased backlogs create strong runway for '22 growth. Lower COVID-related mass demand will affect the first quarter most heavily, driving a 9% drag on SPS in Q1 and then will abate throughout the year. In Intelligrated, after ending 2021 with approximately 50% year-over-year hyper growth, we expect sales to be flattish year-over-year in '22 as we adjust our portfolio towards a better balance of growth and near-term profitability. We're targeting substantial margin expansion in Intelligrated in 2022 and expect sequential improvement throughout the year, with the second half revenue being higher than the first, the opposite dynamic versus what we saw in 2021. So overall, we expect SPS sales to be flattish year-over-year, with sales growth higher in the second half versus the first half and margins expanding materially as business mix and supply chain challenges subside. So overall for Honeywell, we see improvement across most of our end markets throughout '22, and we have confidence in our continued operational execution. We'll manage through another challenging operational environment with accelerating growth as the year progresses. Now let's move to Slide 8 to discuss how these dynamics come together for our 2022 financial guidance. In total, for '22, we expect sales of $35.4 billion to $36.4 billion, which represents overall organic sales growth in the range of 4% to 7%. We'll continue to drive pricing actions to combat this inflationary environment, and we expect approximately 4% of our sales growth to come through price. Excluding the impact of the lower COVID mask demand, which will approximately be a 1 point headwind, we expect organic growth of 5% to 8%. The first half will be slower and, as additional supplier capacity comes online, we'll see significant sequential improvement and stronger growth in the back half of the year. Segment margins are expanded -- are expected to expand 10 to 50 basis points, despite a robust investment year, supported by higher sales volumes, price/cost management and our continued rigor on fixed costs. Excluding the 30 basis point headwind from Quantinuum OpEx that Darius mentioned earlier, we expect margins to expand 40 to 80 basis points. We are excited about the trajectory of Quantinuum and the value creation that this investment will bring. We expect margin expansion across all of our businesses in '22, with SPS leading the pack as we prioritize profitability versus growth. For the year, we expect earnings per share of $8.40 to $8.70, up 4% to 8% adjusted. We see free cash flow in the range of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion in '22 or $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion, excluding Quantinuum, which I'll walk through in a couple of minutes. For now let's turn to Slide 9 and talk through our 2022 EPS bridge. On EPS, segment profit is expected to be a key driver of our earnings growth, contributing $0.58 per share at the midpoint of our guidance or about 7% growth. Next, below the line, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of negative $100 million to positive $50 million, which reserves capacity for $300 million to $425 million of repositioning and other. This includes between $30 million and $50 million related to the carryover cost from supply chain disruptions in Intelligrated. On the pension front, we expect approximately $1,050,000,000 of pension and OPEB income in '22, down approximately $100 million from 2021, as we have adjusted our plans for higher discount rates due to interest rate movements and the adjustment of our expected returns. Our diligent management and strong returns have been an important value driver for the company, putting us in a position where our pension-funded status continues to be robust, ending the year at approximately 120%. With these inputs, below the line and other items are expected to be down $0.15 per share year-over-year at the midpoint, mainly driven by the lower pension income. Quantinuum will result in a headwind of approximately $0.03 per share as the net P&L investment is partially offset with noncontrolling interest. For taxes, we expect an effective rate of 22%, and our base case is that our minimum 1% share count reduction program will result in a benefit of $0.09 per share, reducing our weighted average shares from 700 million to at least 693 million. So in total, we expect '22 earnings per share to be in the range of $8.40 to $8.70, up 48% year-over-year adjusted. However, excluding the impact from Quantum and below the line and other items, we would see year-over-year earnings per share growth of 8% at the midpoint. Now let's turn to Slide 10 and discuss the drivers of our free cash flow guidance for '22. As we outlined on this bridge, 2022 cash flow will be the tale of 3 dynamics
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Greg. Let's turn to Slide 12 and talk about our corporate governance at Honeywell. Integrity and ethics, inclusion and diversity and workplace respect are foundational principles that are core to our strategy at Honeywell. Our focus on these principles is evident in our corporate governance efforts throughout the entire organization from top to bottom. We have a diverse and independent Board of Directors overseeing the business, and an executive team that is committed to fostering a culture built on these foundational principles. Through our annual training to all of our employees, we educate on our code of business conduct and promote honest business practices, compliance to all laws and regulations and respect in the workplace. We recently launched Honeywell Accelerator, a revitalized operating system that provides a centralized source of training programs designed to further develop our employees, enhance the way we manage, govern and operate the business. Accelerator allows us to educate and standardize around our best practices and will empower our employees with the knowledge and tools needed to perform their roles. In January, we announced a new addition to our Board of Directors. Rose Lee was elected to join the Board as an Independent Director. Rose is currently President and Chief Executive Officer of Cornerstone Building Brands, a leading manufacturer of exterior building products in North America. Rose has a unique blend of leadership skills, deep knowledge of operations and technology and a passion for environmental, social and governance expertise. Prior to joining Cornerstone Building Brands, Rose served as President of the DuPont Water & Protection business, focusing on improving sustainability through the company's water, shelter and safety solutions. She's also spearheaded initiatives to advance minorities, women's and veterans. Rose's perspective will be a valuable addition to our Board as we further advance Honeywell's transformation. Now let's turn to Slide 13 for some closing thoughts before we move into Q&A. In the first year of recovery was not without its challenges. However, we effectively managed through these macroeconomic difficulties and over delivered our financial commitments. We didn't stay on the sidelines, but instead, we took action to grow the business, including increasing our capital deployment. Our balance sheet remains strong, and we'll continue to invest for the future of Honeywell. While several COVID-related headwinds will drag into early part of 2022, the macro setup is trending favorably for most of our end markets and we're optimistic about our future. Our recent innovations, including new safety and sustainability offerings, will drive long-term growth and allow us to meet some of the world's most pressing needs. One last item before we move to Q&A. I'm pleased to announce that our 2022 Investor Day will be held on March 3 at our corporate headquarters in Charlotte. At this Investor Day, I, along with members of the senior management team, will discuss Honeywell's business strategy, exciting new growth opportunities and an updated long-term growth algorithm. We look forward to sharing more with you about Honeywell's future at that time. With that, Sean, let's move to Q&A.
A - Sean Meakim:
Thank you, Darius. Darius, Greg, Anne and Torsten are now available to answer your questions. . Ari, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
. We will now take our first question from Scott Davis from Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Can you hear me?
Sean Meakim:
Yes. Good morning, Scott.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Good morning.
Scott Davis:
Guys, the guidance seems conservative, I guess. And when you back out price, 4% price, you're not expecting a whole lot of unit volume recovery. Is that because of the first half being so weak and you expect just a modest improvement in the second half? I mean, I guess just a little bit of color. I look at Slide 7, and it looks so bullish. And then you look at Slide 8 and you say, "Oh, it doesn't feel as bullish." Just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about the year playing out and how conservative the guide is.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, I think, first of all, a couple of comments on that. We do have to take, first of all, masks into account, which adds 1 point to the growth rate. So now we're at 5% to 8% because, I think, frankly, the masks are a bunch of noise into our numbers, at least for the first half. Second of all, the first half will be slow, which actually means that we've got to have substantial acceleration in the second half. And although we're bullish on improved supply chain flow, it is a bit of an unknown. And even with sort of the kind of a slow first half, that implies a pretty aggressive growth in the second half. And for us, 5% to 8% growth, which take 6.5%, 7% at the midpoint, I think it's a fairly reasonable guide to start the year, with a lot of uncertainty along the supply chain. I am optimistic, and we have some very specific data points. For example, we have about just a shade over 90% of our semiconductor now confirmed for the year. The problem is that necessarily confirm when we want it, which will be in the first half. It's more certain for the second half. But you would have to be sort of betting on the future and sometimes the future is unpredictable until we see that. So we came out with guidance that I think is fair. I don't know if you want to call it aggressive or conservative, but it does assume a pretty good step up in the second half, probably not inconsistent with some of those peers. But what none of us know, and that includes Honeywell and others, is exactly what will happen in the second half. So we've built in a ramp, but we also feel like it's a ramp that can be met. So we'll -- and we'll adjust as we go through the year.
Scott Davis:
Okay. That's fair. I'll stick to the one question. And good luck in '22.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.
Charles Tusa:
Just on the investment side, it looks to me like R&D growing 15%. You have this digital investment you're making. You talked about the CapEx and how, I think, you said that, that's kind of getting close to a peak. What is the kind of normal run rate of these investments now going forward? It seems like they grew meaningfully ahead of sales this year. Are these investments, they will continue to grow ahead of sales? Or will they be more kind of flat with sales or even flat on absolute basis? What's the outlook for those R&D and this digital spending?
Darius Adamczyk:
I mean, let me kind of split that up, Steve. The first one is, I think you know from a CapEx perspective, we think that this is a bit of a higher-than-normal year by, call it, $200 million to $300 million. So I think that that's probably a bit unusual. But look, I think there's a key point here that's missing. I think our investors should want us to spend money in CapEx and R&D. It is the highest IRR return we can have on anything we do. And with the pricing for M&A today, if you can get double-digit IRR returns on M&A, you're doing well. So I think this is the point is that we have great projects, both CapEx and OpEx, which will generate tremendous return for investors, especially in Sustainability and Technology Solutions. I mean that business is poised to be multibillion dollars by the end of the century and -- or by the end of the decade. And I think some of the wins that you've seen here are proof points of that, and I see nothing but acceleration from this point forward. So I think that's the story on CapEx. On OpEx, obviously, we have some items around Quantinuum. We're investing there. I mean we've got about almost a $200 million headwind just from OpEx investment in that business. But I mean, this is sort of another appealing thing to our investors. I mean, you can pick up the best quantum computing company in the world at an industrial multiple. Obviously, I think we're -- whether or not that stays within the portfolio, I think, is to be determined, but probably keeping it longer term in the portfolio is not the path we would go. So obviously, that will also create some headwinds. And then sort of R&D investment, other, I think that's a little bit to be determined. I mean, we are going to continue to invest in innovation. And as long as we have good projects, that investment is going to continue. We have some great investments in sustainability, aerospace, forage, we're going to continue to make them.
Charles Tusa:
Right. So I guess what's kind of hard for us to see is that you're spending this money, but obviously, in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter, you're really not seeing it in sales. So will there be -- can you guys give us any color on how much sales? I guess we can do the math on the returns, but will this add a point or 2 to sales over the next couple of years per year? Like at some point, it has to show up in the top line to make it down to the bottom line. So I think that's what is a little bit juxtaposed.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Yes. No, I get that. I mean -- but I mean, there's no sort of instant gratification. I mean, as you know, quantum computing, we're projecting to do more than $20 million this year in revenue, could do more than that. But we're also saying it's going to do $1 billion by 2026. So that's sort of a pretty attractive $2 billion by 2026. So I'd argue that's a pretty attractive curve there. Sustainability Technology Solutions, think about it as a $700 million business within 3 years, to give you some very specifics. Now I'd still like view it as a couple of hundred million this year, but it's going to accelerate very, very quickly to give you some curves. On the big scope of Honeywell, are they going to show up dramatically in Q1, Q2? Probably not. But as you look at '23, '24 and '25, we're very, very confident these things will show up, and we'll talk a little bit more about at the Investor Day. I think the Sustainability Technology Solutions business has been on fire. And with all the wins, and some of them we can't even talk about that we've had, particularly in our green fuels, gives us a lot of confidence to invest a lot more money into that business given the kind of demand we're seeing and interest in our technologies.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe just a question around sort of cash generation and cash uses. So I just wondered what your perspective was on whether Honeywell can be a sort of 100% free cash flow conversion business in the medium term. Understood that maybe CapEx normalizes, but you've still got that pension income in the P&L aspect there. And then the second part is on the cash uses. I think investors might say, look, you've got very high IRR investments being made. The share price isn't embedding the high IRR. Your balance sheet is unlevered. So why don't you do a big share buyback right now in advance of those high IRR projects becoming visible?
Gregory Lewis:
Okay. So thank you, Julian. And when you look at our cash generation capability, I think you've seen over the last 4 years plus, we have dramatically improved that to be right around, if not, above 100% and 16% to 17% cash margin, which we think is actually a better measure. With this investment that's going in now, obviously, that takes it down this year, which would compute into something probably in the high 80s, mid- to high 80s, and probably, again, 13% to 14%, so call it, mid teens on cash margin. But our forward look is very positive. I mean as we've discussed, I mean, the CapEx comes and goes. We're usually right around $900 million plus/minus. So this year, maybe we're going to be $1.2 billion or so, $1.1 billion, $1.2 billion, but there are some specific reasons why that is, and that will probably work its way back down. And we'll continue to drive income growth, which is going to fuel our cash generation. So I feel very strongly about the strength of our cash flow. Will it be 100%? I don't know, but we feel like mid-teens cash margin for us is a very strong place and no reason to believe that we're not going to continue to be there. As far as the share buyback is concerned, we've got our powder dry. That is -- we've demonstrated, again, once again in the fourth quarter that we're willing to deploy our capital against that. We did almost $1 billion in 4Q. I think it was 800 -- high 800s. And if that opportunity really shows itself, we'll go back in and do so. So I think that's one of the things we'll always have right in our radar on our capital deployment toggle. So I don't know, Darius, if you want to say anything more about it.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. No, I think, Julian, as you saw in Q4, we were pretty active in the market, and we think that the shares are severely underpriced right now, and we acted, Q4. So we kind of did what we say. In terms of cash conversion, I'll be honest, I talked -- I hate that metric. It's not a good metric. Because if you do a bunch of really expensive M&A and you have an underfunded pension plan, you're going to look really good on that metric. And it's kind of a meaningless metric. I like cash as a percent of your revenue. I think that's a better metric. And I think we're going to be in the teens, some place in the teens. Some years, mid- to upper teens, some years lower. But one thing we're not going to do is not invest in the business when we have these kinds of growth opportunities. I think that -- I think it's a great sign that Honeywell has these kinds of growth opportunities that provide these kinds of returns. And I wish that some of the revenue and returns would come sooner. I think we all wish that. But the fact is these are attractive returns. And whether it's Quantum or Sustainability Technology Solutions or others, you don't get this kind of margin performance year after year after year. And we're not exactly a low-margin company to begin with. I mean, we're in our low 20s. So we're kind of in top quartile of our peer group, and we have continued confidence in margin expansion. Reason is because we're investing in innovation, which is differentiated, where we can capture value, I think, we've proven.
Julian Mitchell:
Yes, I agree with that on the premise of the cash flow margin.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Can you hear me okay?
Gregory Lewis:
Yes.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes.
Nigel Coe:
Just want to go back to cash flow and the $0.5 billion impact from the tax changes, Greg.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes.
Nigel Coe:
R&D, I think we all understand, but definitely a little bit heavier than what we were expecting. So maybe just break out, is it R&D plus other things? And if the -- if Congress solves this issue, does that toward that come back?
Gregory Lewis:
Yes.
Nigel Coe:
Or is it other things?
Gregory Lewis:
Yes, 100%. listen, we could have -- there are some of our peers who left out the detriment of the extenders not occurring, we did not do that because...
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Most of our peers.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. I mean, I could tell you that it's going to be $400 million to $500 million more cash flow. And then if they don't do the needful, then we're going to come back to you in April and take our guidance down. So that was not a position we wanted to be in. We're being very transparent with what it is. We really hope that, that legislation gets extended. We feel very strongly that R&D tax credit is important. It's important for us to invest here in the U.S. in R&D, protect jobs, et cetera, and it's underpinning of a lot of our technology that we then export throughout the world. So we're very hopeful that, that changes. But in the meantime, as it stands right now, it doesn't. And come March, we may be having to make a payment. And so therefore, we put it in our guidance as such.
Darius Adamczyk:
And the short story is -- Nigel, is that if it does get passed, expect $400 million roughly, plus or minus, increase to our cash outlook for the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.
Jeffrey Sprague:
I just want to come back to the growth investments. And I guess sitting here, we could probably just impute that the growth, R&D and CapEx, is CapEx, $200 million or $300 million, right, and R&D, a couple of hundred million. But Darius, you've been talking about these initiatives for a while, some of the ones that you've laid out here. So maybe you could just actually scale for us what is truly growth CapEx and growth-oriented R&D? And have you found ways to kind of repurpose those traditional spending buckets? I think you've talked about kind of lowering the asset intensity of the business and other things. So I think there's some movement inside that CapEx budget. But the nature of my question is really to try to get at -- and I think Steve alluded to it, kind of imputing the growth inherent in this IRR number that you're giving us, which kind of hinges on what the growth spending actually is.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, I think sort of the increment for this year is pretty much all sort of growth-oriented spending. And there's a couple of other elements that are embedded. So some of the classical sort of CapEx spending is going. What it's getting replaced by is some of the spending that we're doing in things like automation. For example, our next phase of ISC transformation isn't so much a reduction in footprint and fixed costs and so on, but it's actually automation. So there's some CapEx that's embedded in there that doesn't necessarily help growth, but it helps margin expansion, efficiency and so on. So there are some puts and takes and -- but the incremental spend has really been on really growth programs. And let me just give you a couple of specific examples where we've actually spent in development. We don't probably talk about it often enough, but our Forge business, which we've been invested in pretty heavily, they're recurring, their SaaS growth, 39% last year. Their recurring revenue base, double digit last year. Overall software growth, double digit last year. Our Solstice business, which, as you may recall in the '15, '16, '17 time frame, we've invested a lot of capital into it. Now billion-dollar-plus kind of a business, and now we're investing even more because it's accretive to our margins. It's growing very, very quickly, and we're finding new applications. So I hope the investors trust us that we make these investments, they come to fruition, generate returns. They're not instantaneous. We made Solstice investments 4, 5, 6 years ago, and now they're coming to fruition and they're flowering. Made the Forge investments 3, 4 years ago, that's grown. In 2, 3, 4 years, I'm very confident we're going to be talking to you about the kind of top line we're getting from Sustainability Technology Solutions or Quantum, whether it's part of Honeywell or not, but these are attractive things.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Just a quick follow-up, if I could. So much discussion on growth here today. Could you size maybe the growth headwind that you experienced in Q4 and/or the year on supply chain or other type issues?
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. We talked about it in our last guide as $300 million to $500 million in the quarter in Q4 and having had experienced about $300 million in Q3. And that's kind of what it turned out to be. It was probably more towards the high end of the $500 million. And you see that in our past due backlog. It continues to be at an elevated level in 3 out of 4 businesses. And through the course of the year, that's probably $1 billion more than when we began. So again, that's not a -- it's not one for one exactly the number, but that will give you a good marker for some of what was left on the table here in 2021, which, again, we have high confidence that carries forward. And as the supply base opens up on the semiconductor side, that should help free up the past due certainly a little bit in PMT, but mainly in the HBT and SPS business. And then we've talked a lot about supply chain, and we're starting to hear more of our aero and defense peers speaking about it as well. As that supply chain ramps up, that should provide a lot of tailwind for us as we go throughout the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
So I want to ask about maybe Aero margins and SPS margins because I think that's the 2 deltas versus our model and your long-term targets. Especially on Aero margins, when we look at your margins, you did 27.7% in 2021, which is really good, and 28.2% if we exclude the Quantinuum loss. So how do we think about the drivers of that despite headwinds that you have in the business, but you're talking about margin expansion there for Aero, what's the reset higher? And then same for SPS, how do we think about a normalized margin rate there?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Let me start, and I'll turn it over to Greg. I think a couple of things. we are going to get much more OE growth in 2022 than we did in 2021. It was a favorable mix in '21. But nevertheless, we're going to still continue to see aftermarket growth. We're also investing in R&D. But given the volume leverage that we expect to see and still, I wouldn't say as favorable a mix is in '21, but still a good mix in '22. We expect to see some continued margin expansion in Aero despite further investments in R&D. That's the Aero outlook. In terms of SPS, I think our big pressure was in the Intelligrated business because, as you know, that business grew over 50% last year, frankly. And I've said this from multiple calls, probably the worst here to pick that level of growth. So we have -- we will focus in Intelligrated in '22, not so much on growth, but there's more than enough that we could have if we wanted it. But we're going to focus on productivity and margin expansion because we really have to position that business much better for further growth, which we expect to see in '23 and '24. So that's really the business that really hurt our margins in SPS, especially in the second half of last year.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes, and you pick the bookends. I mean we expect the most margin expansion in SPS for those reasons. And I think Aero is going to be on the lower end for exactly what Darius described between the investments we're making in R&D as well as some of the mix pressures. We'll get a little bit of that 40, 50 basis points benefit from Quantinuum moving out, but it will be on the lower end of the scale in Aero. And that's actually -- that's not a bad thing. I mean, we grew Aero margins dramatically in 2021. So it's not like we're slowing down off of a slow pace. It was a huge contributor to our margin expansion in '21. So I think it's right that this is the way. We want to make sure that we're always investing in that business because it's got a very bright long-term future.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
So the question is just a follow-up on guidance. At the lower end, right, you're guiding to 4% top line growth with 4% pricing, sort of implies flat volumes. Could you just talk about the scenario? What would we view? What does the world look like in which this come true? And what does it imply for second quarter?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, I think, first of all, I'd say that you got to take the masks noise out of it. So even at the low end, we're growing the business because I think masks will still provide some noise, certainly in Q1, worth 2 points, and even some in Q2. The scenario would be that there's no real improvement or deterioration in the supply chain situation. I mean that is the biggest still unknown. And although we're optimistic that the supply chain is getting better and we have better -- that we've sort of bottomed out. Until we really see that, it's hard to lock that into those numbers, and that's why we kind of have the bottom where we do. But that would be the biggest sort of variable that's an unknown is really the supply chain performance.
Andrew Obin:
Got you. So not a specific segment, supply chain.
Darius Adamczyk:
No, the ones that where we're getting impacted the most, I think in PMT for the most part, the impact there has been very mild. I would say HBT has been impacted relatively heavily, particularly in Q4. And I would say, looking forward, that's probably the segment where we have the biggest impact. Aero also, and SPS actually is getting better. So that's sort of how I would weigh the 4 different segments.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Just since it's been in the headlines over the past several weeks about the 5G rollout and issues with the risk of interference at airports, I'd be interested in your comments. Has this impacted at all orders in aerospace? Has it required any retesting? Any delays? Any commentary there would be helpful.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, no. The short answer, Deane, it has not impacted orders. We're obviously working with both the OEs and the FAA to find a solution. And we're actively involved in those discussions. But in terms of orders and so on, no. And I mean, if anything, if there's a hardware and/or a software solution here, it probably will -- it probably improve our outlook for orders, not actually retrack from it, but we'd be very active in those discussions.
Deane Dray:
Is there a risk of interference? There's lots of debate there.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think I'm going to leave that answer to the experts. And I'm not an expert on this topic. So I think I'm going to defer that one.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Walsh from Credit Suisse.
John Walsh:
Wanted to just dig in a little bit to Slide 22, where you talk about the labor cost inefficiencies, the $30 million to $50 million. Would just love to know how you're actually calculating that. Is that absenteeism? Is it the impact of inefficiencies from doing changeovers? It would seem like we've heard that from many manufacturers, but I guess you're the first to size it and actually seemed a little bit low. So maybe there's some other things that's not being captured in that $30 million to $50 million you call out.
Gregory Lewis:
Yes. Yes. So think about that as -- again, that's specific to Intelligrated. It's specific to projects that we began in 2021 that are now going to carry over into 2022. And some of those costs are related to some of the demobilization and remobilization and the inefficiencies that come across. So if you think about an installation project, materials come on site, people come on site and do their job in a certain defined time frame and a certain set of steps. And when that gets disrupted by material availability, you create havoc with supply of labor on time and so forth. So these are very identifiable costs related to very specific projects. And we have changed our operating cadence with some of our customers to lengthen lead times and so forth to make sure that, that doesn't recur again in 2022. So this is really the carryover of completion of some of these larger jobs in '21.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. And I think Greg said it right, which is when the supplies don't arrive on time, you cause inefficiency in the installation with them because there's -- people are essentially waiting on supplies. And that's kind of what we change going forward for '22 is we will really be staging the parts and the components needed for the warehouse before we actually apply the labor. So the way we're going to execute these jobs, because generally, in a normal-flowing supply chain environment, you kind of do that concurrently. But with the unpredictability in the supply chain, it's really not possible, not prudent to do it that way. So we're going to be doing much more staging before we actually apply labor to do the install, which will dramatically improve our operating efficiency.
Operator:
We'll take our last question from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citigroup. Andrew? Okay. We'll come back to Andrew. We'll take one more question from Markus Mittermaier from UBS.
Markus Mittermaier:
One on PMT, if I could. Obviously, Europe piece, still strong as per your comments. You had a comment in the press release this morning that there was delayed project recovery and softness in smart energy in the fourth quarter. How should I think about the '22 guide here mid-single digits to high single digits in the context of the automation business? What are the customer conversations here on budgets? And is there upside there if some of these project delays, maybe around the status you expect, how should we think about that?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. No, we're very bullish on PMT this year. Just to give you a very specific -- some specific figures, our project business bookings were up double digit in Q4. So we actually see a substantial acceleration in our automation business, and that's reflected in the booking rates. PMT overall was up double digits in Q4 and the year. UOP business bookings were up over 20% in Q4. So really, really nice positioning for PMT. We're very bullish on PMT for '22 and '23. I mean the investment cycle is certainly returning, and we're seeing that in both our booking rates and the kind of performance we saw even in Q4, and we think that that's going to continue. So I think PMT is as well positioned as any business we see for '22.
Operator:
Thank you very much. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Darius Adamczyk for any additional closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. We delivered strong fourth quarter results and continued to navigate effectively through multiple uncertainties with the typical level of operational rigor you've come to expect from Honey. Our future is bright, and we look forward to discussing this further at our upcoming Investor Day. Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect at this time. Have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell 's Third Quarter Earnings Release. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Reena Vaidya, Director of Investor Relations. Reena, please go ahead.
Reena Vaidya :
Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. Also joining us our Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Anne Madden and Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, Torsten Pilz. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.cleanwell.com/investor. Honeywell also uses our website as a means of disclosing information which may be of interest or material to our investors for complying with disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor our Investor Relations website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, webcasts, and social media. Note the elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions, and we ask that you interpret them in that way. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-Q and other SEC filings. This morning, we'll review our financial results for the third quarter of 2021, share guidance for the fourth quarter and full-year 2021, and share some preliminary thoughts on 2020 chief planning. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Reena. And good morning, everyone. Let's begin on slide 2. Our outstanding discipline and execution enabled us to deliver third quarter results that met or exceeded our financial guidance in an increasingly challenging environment. We achieved a high-end of our third quarter adjusted earnings per share guidance range and exceeded the high end of our segment margin guidance by 60 basis points despite significant headwinds from inflation and supply chain constraints which tampered down our top-line growth potentially. Despite that, organic sales were up 8% year-over-year driven by double-digit organic growth in safety and productivity solutions, the commercial aerospace aftermarket, and advanced materials and UOP. Segment margin expanded a 130 basis points to 21.2%, driven by strong actions that we took across the portfolio to address the headwinds we faced from inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions. Specifically, we've continued to operate our strong productivity playbook. We took swift pricing action that allowed us to stay ahead of the inflation curve. We drove a 4% increase year-over-year and on the top-line yielded approximately 40 basis points of margin expansion, net of inflation. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.02, up 29% year-over-year, achieving the high end of our guidance launch. We delivered a strong third quarter despite a volatile backdrop that included a hurricane of PMT battery corridor, power blackouts in China, and the persistent and ongoing impacts to the supply chain more brought. I am pleased by our disciplined execution, which enabled us to navigate the challenges in the macroeconomic environment and capitalize on the ongoing recovery in our end markets. I continue to be encouraged by the strength we're seeing in many areas of our portfolio. Orders across Honeywell up high single-digits year-over-year organic. Excluding the impact of COVID -related mask business, which is seeing significant demand declines since the pandemic, has been subsiding. Orders across Honeywell were up double-digits year-over-year. Backlog was up 7% to $27.5 billion and up 9% excluding the impact of COVID mask orders, driven by strength in many of our segments and positioning us to deliver next phase of the recovery as we head into 2022. As always, we continue to execute on our rigorous, improving value creation framework that drives outstanding shareholder value. Now, let's turn to Slide 3 to discuss some of our exciting recent announcements. Last month, United Airlines and Honeywell announced the joint multi-million dollar investment, Alder Fuels, powering the biggest sustainable fuel agreement in aviation history. Alder Fuels is a clean tech Company that is pioneering first of its kind technologies from producing sustainable aviation fuel or SAF at scale. When used together across the fuel life cycle, the Alder technologies coupled with Honeywell 's ecofining process have the ability to produce a carbon negative alternative to today's jet fuels. As part of the agreement, United is committing to purchase 1.5 billion gallons of SAF that's produced to United's requirements, which is 1.5 times the size of the known purchase commitment of all global airlines combined. Making this easily the largest publicly announced SAF agreement in aviation history and demonstrating the power of Honeywell technologies continue to bring to the oncoming global energy transition. We also recently announced the acquisition of Performics, a provider of manufacturing execution systems or MES, software for a pharmaceutical manufacturing and biotech industries. This acquisition builds on a strategy to create the world's leading integrated software platform for customers. With that, life sciences industry, who are striving to achieve faster compliance, improved reliability, and better production throughput at the highest levels of quality. The Performix MES software joins Honeywell 's large and growing portfolio of automation solutions for the life sciences industry, including Sparta Systems Quality Management Software and Honeywell 's Experion Process Knowledge System. The combined offerings will address life sciences customer needs across their product life cycles -- from automation project execution to optimal production to sustainable quality. Lastly, we unveiled an all new aircraft cockpit system earlier this month called Honeywell Anthem, the first in the industry built with an always on cloud-connected experience that improves flight efficiency, operations, safety, and comfort. Honeywell Anthem offers unprecedented levels of connectivity and exciting and intuitive interface model after everyday smart devices in a highly scalable and customizable design. This Next Generation Flight Deck is powered by a flexible software platform that can be customized for virtually every type of aircraft and flying vehicles, including the large passenger and cargo planes, business jets, helicopters, general aviation aircraft, and the rapidly emerging class of advanced air mobility vehicles. In fact, Honeywell Anthem has already been selected by Vertical Aerospace and Lilium with their vertical takeoff and landing all-electric aircraft. As these announcements highlights, we're continuously innovating and enhancing our portfolio, exciting new technologies aligned to our long-term strategic objectives. Now, let me turn it over to Greg on slide 4 to discuss our third quarter results in more detail.
Greg Lewis :
Thank you and good morning, everyone. As Darius highlighted, we executed with a typical level of rigor that you have come to expect from Honeywell and delivered on our commitments despite a challenging backdrop. Our third quarter was strong with sales up 8% organically to $8.5 billion. Segment margins expanding a 130 basis points to 21.2%, resulting in 36% incremental margins and free cash flow of more than $900 million, up 20% year-on-year. Our third quarter performance demonstrates our ability to deliver for our shareholders in all environments. Now let's take a minute to discuss how each of the segments contributed to that. Starting with aerospace, third quarter sales were up 2% organically as the ongoing recovery in flight hours drove another quarter of strong double-digit commercial aerospace aftermarket growth. As expected, air transport aftermarket sales continue to gain momentum, growing more than 10% sequentially from the second quarter and growing 40% year-over-year. Commercial original equipment returned to growth in the quarter driven by strong demand for business jets. The growth in commercial aerospace was partially offset by defense and space, which was down 17% in the quarter, primarily due to supply chain constraints which limited our deliveries. Excluding those impacts, defense in space would have been down mid-single digits in the quarter. An improvement versus the first half run rate. Aerospace segment margins expanded 390 basis points to 27.1% driven by growth in our high-margin, aftermarket business, strong productivity from our lower cost base and pricing. Building technology sales were up 3% organically driven by broad-based demand across the building products portfolio, as well as continued growth in Building Solutions services. Orders were up double-digits year-over-year for the fourth straight quarter, driven by demand for fire products, building management systems, and projects. Backlog for Building Solutions services was up over 35% year-over-year, positioning the business for growth into 2022. In addition, our healthy buildings portfolio maintained strong customer momentum with approximately a $100 million of orders in the quarter, bringing year-to-date orders to $250 million. HPT segment margins expanded a 190 basis points to 23.5% driven by pricing and productivity, partially offset by inflation. And PMT sales were up 9% organically, led by 29% growth in UOP and 14% growth in advanced materials. UOP sales growth was driven by higher petrochemical catalyst shipments and their backlog grew double-digits year-over-year, which should drive growth well into 2022. Process solutions sales were down 2% organically as the recovery in projects has lagged, partially offset by high single-digit growth in thermal solutions and lifecycle solutions and services. HPS orders were up 20% year-over-year, driven by broad-based demand across the portfolio, providing confidence in the longer-term outlook for the business. PMT segment margins expanded 260 basis points to 22.2% in the quarter driven by pricing, strong operating leverage, and a healthy mix of UOP. In safety and productivity solutions despite battling supply chain and inflation challenges, sales were up 21% organically driven by another quarter of double-digit warehouse and workflow solutions growth. Productivity solutions and services growth and gas analysis growth. Orders in these three businesses were also up double-digits year-over-year, resulting in a robust SPS backlog of more than $4 billion. Personal protective equipment sales declined year-over-year as mass demand declined meaningfully. This was partially offset by growth in the hearing, gloves, and fall protection categories. SPS segment margins contracted 70 basis points to 13.2%, driven by unfavorable business mix, which combined with targeted investments and supply chain challenges and then calibrated proven efficiencies in manufacturing installation as the business has been scaling to outsize growth, which was 60% organically this quarter. Finally, growth across our portfolio was underpinned by continued progress in Honeywell connected enterprise. Our connected buildings and cyber solutions delivered another quarter of double-digit organic growth, and third quarter recurring revenue growth was once again up double-digits year-over-year. So overall, we delivered strong organic sales growth, drove a 130 basis points of improvement in segment margins, 60 basis points above the high end of our guidance despite the challenging environment. For the quarter, we delivered GAAP earnings per share of $1.80 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.02, up 29% year-over-year, achieving the high end of our guidance. A bridge from 3Q '20 adjusted EPS to 3Q '21 adjusted EPS can be found in the appendix of this presentation, which includes reference to $160 million non-cash charge related to ongoing UOP matters that are described in our Form 10-Q. The majority of our year-over-year adjusted earnings growth, $0.26, was driven by our strong segment profit improvement. Below the line items we're $0.13 tailwind, driven by lower repositioning and higher pension income. A lower effective tax rate of 22.9% and lower weighted average share count of 699 million shares drove a $0.04 and $0.03 benefit, respectively. We generated $900 million of free cash flow in the quarter, an increase -- as increased earnings -- excuse me. As increased earnings increase in working capital due to growth of the business and related supply chain challenges; I temped that down a bit. Finally, we strategically deployed $1.5 billion primarily to share repurchases, dividends, and Capex in the third quarter, which significantly exceeded operating cash flow. We paid $646 million in dividends, deployed $208 million of capital expenditures, and reduced $650 million of Honeywell shares, reducing our weighted average share count to 699 million. Total capital deployment was up 44% year-over-year. And all this was another strong quarter under difficult circumstances. We continue to manage through the multi-speed recovery across our portfolio, making disciplined investments for the future and meeting or exceeding our commitments while proactively addressing macroeconomic challenges. With that, let's turn to slide 5 to discuss the impact of the supply chain constraints we're facing and how Honeywell is adapting to address those challenges. As we saw last quarter, the world continues to face persistent supply chain challenges as the sourcing environment of direct materials and electrical components continue to be tight. Logistics capacity remained strained and labor availability becomes more challenging, all driving constraints and operating and inflationary pressures on our cost base. Semiconductors remain an acute problem due to a structural disconnect between supply and demand driven by canceled industrial and automotive orders during COVID -19, as well as unplanned growth of 5G, personal computing, and consumer electronics. We've also started feeling pressure in aerospace as the supply chain broadly ramps up more slowly than needed, leading to parts challenges due to deteriorating supplier delivery. While we have been mitigating the overall risk by proactively partnering with distributors and alternative suppliers, the challenge has accelerated in the last quarter, constraining growth in some of our businesses. The most effective businesses in our portfolio are SPS, Aerospace and HPT. We provide guidance ranges for our quarterly and annual outlook in order to incorporate an adequate level of risks for things just such as this as we've seen these dynamics in the last few quarters, We are managing the situation aggressively on a daily basis and deployed the full strength of our re-engineering efforts to qualify alternative parts, which has mitigated some risks on our Productivity Solutions and Services, advanced sensing, and fire businesses. We created tiger teams using advanced digital tools to track shortages and deploy a number of actions to liberate supply in the market. We also continue to mitigate inflation and materials, freight, and labor, in our operations through targeted regular pricing actions. For the longer term, we're developing dual-source platforming strategies and executing long-term supply agreements with some of our key suppliers. This coupled with strengthening direct engagement with the semiconductor OEMs and foundries, will improve our ability to secure increased volumes in the future. We do expect this environment to persist into the fourth quarter and the first half of '22, we'll continue to adapt as we manage through this period. With that, let's turn to slide 6 to talk about our expectations for the fourth quarter. As we enter the fourth quarter and given the ongoing challenges I mentioned, we expect sales to be in the range of $8.5 to $8.9 billion, down 4%, just flat on an organic basis, which includes the impact of the COVID -19 driven mass sales decline. Excluding this impact, organic sales would be down 2% to up to organically. We would also normally see a seasonal step - up from the third to the fourth quarter, which this year will be somewhat dampened by the unique calendar impact of having more days in the third quarter than we do in 4Q. In Aerospace, we expect our commercial business to continue to improve as business aviation and air transport flight hours continue to accelerate, driving continued sequential and year-over-year growth in the commercial aftermarket sales. The pace of the air transport acceleration will continue to vary regionally with domestic travel recovering faster than international. Commercial original equipment build rates will also continue to progress gradually. Defense and space sales will be down due to lower demand from U.S. DoD programs, driven by moderating U.S. Defense spend, and soft international defense funds. We will continue to manage through the constraints as the Aerospace supply base ramps up, but we are expecting to miss out on potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shipments due to these continued challenges in Q4. We now expect organic sales growth to be down mid-single-digits for the year in Aerospace. In building technologies, we expect continued strong demand across the portfolio as the world continues to reopen and sustainability solutions take hold, driving sales and orders growth in the fourth quarter. We will face ongoing pressures from the supply constraints but continue to work our mitigation actions, as we anticipate mid-single-digit sales growth for the year. In PMT, we see continued strength in the short-cycle HPS businesses. Though this will be tempered by the slower recovery in projects, our strong orders growth in the third quarter will support our growth acceleration into '22. For UOP, we're pleased with our robust 3Q performance and expect continued growth into the fourth quarter and into '22 supported by the strong backlog, which is up double-digits year-over-year. Last, we expect continued healthy demand for products across the Advanced Materials portfolio. We expect PMT organic sales to be up low-single-digits for the year. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, we expect another quarter of robust growth in our warehouse and workflow solutions and Productivity Solutions and Services businesses. In our Productivity Solutions and Services business, which is having an outstanding year, backlog remains up triple digits year-over-year, which combined with our Intelligrated backlog that is over $2.4 billion, gives us confidence in these businesses for the remainder of '21 and into '22. Vast demand has accelerated, as expected, as the world recovers from the pandemic, though we will partially offset this softness with strengths in other areas, the PPE portfolio. Finally, we expect to see strength in our short-cycle gas analysis and advanced sensing businesses driven by double-digit orders growth in the third quarter. We'll continue to manage through this challenging supply environment, which will impact our growth potential that will record strong double-digit growth for the year. Now let me turn to our expectation for our other core guided metrics. For our fourth quarter segment margins, we expect to be in the range of 21.2% to 21.7%, up 10 to 60 basis points year-over-year. We expect margins to continue to benefit from pricing actions ahead of inflation, volume leverage, and ongoing productivity from our streamline cost base despite the headwinds from unfavorable business mix and Intelligrated and efficiency challenges due to supply chain environment. Fourth quarter net below-the-line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income tax and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of negative $10 million to negative $95 million with a range of repositioning between approximately $140 million and $250 million as we continue to fund ongoing restructuring markets. We expect the effective tax rate to be approximately 20%, an average share count to be approximately 698 million shares. As a result, we expect fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share between $2.03 and $2.13, down 2% to up 3% year-over-year. Given these fourth quarter expectations, full-year organic sales growth will be in the range of 4% to 5%, narrowing the range we provided last quarter to $34.2 to $34.6 billion. We are once again raising the low end of our segment margin guidance by 10 basis points for the year to a new range of 20.9% to 21.1%, representing expansion of 50 to 70 basis points for the year. We expect margin expansion in Aero, HBT, and PMT as we carefully invest back into the business while managing the multi-speed recovery across the portfolio. Our fixed cost management remains a focus, and we are tracking favorably to the permanent reduction of $1 billion of fixed costs from our 2020 cost actions. We expect our net below-the-line impact to be in the range of $40 million to $125 million, including capacity for $400 million to $475 million of repositioning. Our full-year effective tax rate will be approximately 22% and weighted average share count will be approximately 701 million for the year, over delivering on our minimum 1% reduction in shares. This will take adjusted earnings per share to a range of $8 to $8.10, up 13% to 14% year-over-year. This maintained the high end of our previous guidance and raised the low-end by $0.05. Despite these challenges, we are maintaining the same cash flow outlook for the year in the range of $5.3 to $5.6 billion. Now let's turn to page 7 and review our guidance progression throughout the year. Since we provided our initial 2021 guidance in January, we have navigated through several uncertainties
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Greg. Before we wrap up, I'd like to take a minute on Slide 9 to discuss an important topic, Honeywell 's culture, inclusion, and diversity. Our commitment to inclusion and diversity, enables better decision-making, helps build competitive advantages, and further long-term success. Inclusion and diversity is 1 of our foundational principles, and Honeywell expects all employees to exemplify these principles. We continue to build on our initiatives to promote racial equality and inclusion and diversity, including employing mandatory unconscious bias training through our global workforce, establishing our Global I&D Steering Committee, co-sponsored by me, and fortifying Honeywell 's I&D governance structure by embedding I&D councils into each business group. We also established 2021 goals for each of my direct reports that include an annual objective for driving diversity with his or her organization. These initiatives had yielded results. Women and people of color represent a higher percentage of the workforce at Honeywell compared to our peers. In addition, representation of women and people of color in Honeywell has increased each year since 2018, which is a testament to our ongoing commitment to hiring, developing, and retaining diverse talent. Now let's wrap up on slide 10. We delivered on our third quarter commitments despite a challenging backdrop. As always, we remain laser-focused on executing our strategic objectives and investing in growth opportunities that positions our business well for the next phase of recovery. We're executing on our proven value-creation framework. It's the rigor you can expect from Honeywell, which will continue to consistently drive shareholder value. With that, Reena, let's move to Q&A.
Reena Vaidya :
Thank you, Darius. Darius, Greg, Anne, and Torsten are now available to answer your questions. We ask that you please be mindful of others in the queue by only asking one question. Ari (ph), please open the lines for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you, Reena. The floor is now open for questions. We will now take our first question from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Steve, over to you.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, good morning. Can you hear me okay?
Operator:
Yes.
Steve Tusa:
Great. Just on the organic growth guidance for next year, would you expect the first half to be -- to actually grow or are you looking at it being kind of more like the fourth quarter? And then you talked about all four segments growing, I guess. Does that mean, will you decelerate from this year because of the first half? Maybe just give us some a bit of guideposts on what the messaging is on first-half versus all of next year on this front.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, the short answer to your question, Steve, is that yeah, we do expect our first half to grow. And I think how much, it could be a little bit dependent upon some of the supply chain challenges that we pointed out that we're seeing in Q4. Frankly, we see it this way, which is on semiconductors, we actually see some positive tailwinds as we head into the first half next year. So that's good. I don't think it's going to be completely alleviated, but it's going to get better. When it comes to some of the other components, particularly for Aerospace and some of the tier 2, tier 3 suppliers, particularly castings, forgings, things of that nature, we're not sure where we are in that improvement cycle, because it really just kind of popped up in Q3 in a more space, so we're a little more cautious there. But the short answer is, we do expect growth in the first half of 2022. what I will say is that we have -- we'll have some headwinds in SPS due to what I call COVID -related math. But I think those are going to be particularly in Q1 of next year. They're evident here in Q4 of '21 and to a lesser extent, Q2 of 2022. And then it's going to -- we're going to get back to that normal run rate. So we -- as you can see, I mean, the year '22 is setting up terrific. I mean, we're up double-digit orders growth in each of our SBGs. One exception, SPS has sort of call it mid single-digits. But if you exclude the impact of the COVID mask, we would be up double-digit as well. so the only constraint that we see, to some extent, the supply chain. And at least in semiconductors, we think that Q4 is the peak of those challenges. That's the way we see it today. Now, I will say this lastly, which is, it's a dynamic environment. There were some puts and takes here, for you to read that were probably more takes than positives. So we're going to monitor this closely as Q4 evolves.
Greg Lewis :
And that's why we have such a wide guidance range for the fourth quarter, $400 million of revenue range is wider than we're typically doing and it's exactly for those .
Steve Tusa:
Does terrific mean reaccelerate -- acceleration from '21? That's my -- that's just my follow-up. Thanks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I think it's -- all I can say is we expect growth in the first half and when we get together with you in January, February to give you our outlook, we'll have a better view. But we certainly expect growth. The backlog supports that. And our story hasn't changed from really the end of Q2 earnings report. I think the setup for Honeywell for '22, '23. is terrific. There's nothing here that makes me want to change my mind. Yes, we're going to have to deal with some supply chain challenges. They're here, they're real, they're probably understated in the market. I think that, frankly, it's only recently that they -- it's been realized how severe they are. But we've incorporated that in our guide for Q4. And I think we're working diligently to try to resolve but, I mean, we've been at this for 12 weeks now. And it's not just one way, it's not just pushing suppliers harder. It's also doing redesign, alternative products, finding different ways to generate revenue. So I think we've got a pretty good playbook, but I won't understate this. The challenges are real and very substantial.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Julian, over to you.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks very much. Yes. Good morning. So maybe my question would focus on the revenue outlook in Aerospace, including the guidance for this year has come down three quarters in a row now in that division. So just wanted to try and understand your level of confidence in when the defense and space piece will return to grow the again. Is it early next year or towards the end of the year? And also any updates and thoughts on Commercial Aero aftermarket and how you think your own revenues will lag or move in line with the recovery in traffic because of spare parts and so forth?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. Okay. So, Julian, a couple of points. On Defense and Space, as you saw, we head up frankly a bit of a disappointing double-digit negative for Q3. But remember that had we not sort of had some of these supply chain challenge, which really became very evident in Q3. Because think about these as Q3, Q4 suppliers, which are smaller, which reduced capacity during the pandemic. And now we're getting a lot of demand, not just from us, but probably some of the other Aerospace players. It's going to take some time to work through that, but we would've been down mid single-digits in Q3 had debt not happen. We have, unfortunately, more pass through than we want. Defense and Space that went up substantially in Q3 and we've got to work our way through that. What I will tell you about Defense and Space is if you look at our bookings or where we are at this cycle, early Q4 versus where we were at the same period of last year, that gives us some -- well, quite a bit of confidence that we're looking at flat to low-single-digits. That could get even better; I don't know that they are going to get a lot worse. What we're seeing here is, if you recall, if you go back to 2020, we had very strong orders and revenue in 2020 in Defense and Space. Then you see the effect of some level of usage and destocking by some of those Defense and Space customers and distributors. So we're optimistic about normalizing that in '22. And based on what we see today, and this is important to say today and that could change, we see flattish to low single-digit growth. And let's now switch gears and talk about commercial aftermarket. We see that continuing improvement. You saw that strong growth in Q3, we think it's going to continue to get better. We're still nowhere near the 2019 levels, but it continues to get better. As you know, November 8th, we're going to open up the borders and more international traffic is going to step up. So as more international comes back, as COVID abates, which we think were going to happen here in Q4 and Q1 next year, we see continued growth in our aftermarket coupled with stronger growth in OE, both in air transport as well as BGA. So the setup for Aerospace, I think for '22 is quite good. Greg, I don't know if you to that.
Greg Lewis :
No, I think you've got it.
Julian Mitchell:
Great. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Davis, from Melius Research. Scott, over to you.
Scott Davis:
Hey, good morning, guys and Anne. I hope you can hear me okay. Darius, can you quantify when you think supply chain costs you in revenues in the quarter, do you have a sense of that? And --
Darius Adamczyk:
Oh, yeah.
Scott Davis:
-- and if you have a sense of that, Darius, do you have a sense of -- can you delineate between like a lost sale and a delayed sale? How much of that is going to go on forever versus just pushed into the next quarter, whatever?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, I know, that's -- I can. So think about the impact in Q3 about 300 million plus or minus, and think about what's embedded in our Q4 outlook of an impact of 300 to 500. Now in terms of loss forever versus pushed, it's not lost forever. I mean, as I talked about, some of our -- fortunately some of our pass throughs going up, and that went up 200 million to 300 million just in Q3, so it's not lost. We've got to be able to get our supply chain to function more effectively and efficiently, and that's exactly what Torsten and his team are working on. And -- but it's -- we don't envision that as loss. The customers still need for those products. And frankly, I think when this earnings cycle ends, I don't think we're going to be that unique in terms of some of the bottlenecks that we're seeing.
Scott Davis:
Thank you. Good luck, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank. Nicole, over to you.
Nicole De Blase:
Guys, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Greg Lewis :
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole De Blase:
Maybe you could talk a little bit about how you're thinking about driving 4Q margin expansion despite at the midpoint revenue decline. And the reason I ask is, just how are you driving cost-cutting in an environment where, I know things are tough, but you're also up against a very strong backlog with the potential for growth to really bounce back in 2022. So kind of how do you balance that against cutting costs for the short-term issues that you're facing?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. Well, yeah, first of all, Nicole, I don't -- cost cutting is not what we're doing. We're actually investing this year, particularly in businesses like Intelligrated, which are growing at clips that probably no other business has seen before. And just -- but on the biggest here, and I think one of the best operational stories for Honeywell that you see here in Q3 is our pricing discipline. I mean, we think we gained in terms of price cost, 40 to 50 basis points of margin expansion. And that's what you're seeing come through in our margins. I mean, I think that was a terrific commercial execution by the team and they did a great job. So this is not so much a function of cost cutting, this is more of a function of commercial execution.
Greg Lewis :
Yes, I would agree. I mean, if you think about it, Nicole, last year, obviously, we were in a substantial cost-cutting mode and our repositioning pipeline and the projects around that reflected it. This year, we always say that we continue the productivity playbook, fix cost power one, create operating leverage by growing sales and holding fixed cost flat as just a mantra of the way we work. And so to Darius' point, we're not doing massive cost cutting. We are being smart about where we're putting it back though, and we are using the things that we spoke about last year in terms of automation in our digital capabilities to help us deliver. I mean, I'll be honest. This -- the supply chain work they were doing, the Torsten and the team are doing are very much enabled by our Honeywell digital tools and capabilities, and some of the visibility that he's put into his own capabilities and supply chain to manage. So this isn't about cutting cost, it's about managing them properly. And we are investing back in the business, as Darius mentioned. But we're going to be doing it diligently. So I feel pretty good about the margin rate expansion. You would see the implied margin rate expansion is a little bit lower than what our guide was previously, simply because the sales numbers are down. So we have a little bit less operating leverage from an opportunity standpoint, but still very healthy margin expansion in Q4.
Darius Adamczyk:
And just to add to that, Greg, this is an important point. Honeywell digital kind of has two elements. Number 1 is, it helps us to operate the business better, and Torsten and his team have done a great job instrumenting, exactly how do we uncork some of these bottlenecks that we're seeing. It's not perfection, it's not that we're going to completely avoid on. But I think we're doing a nice job. And second of all, which is continue to drive productivity as Greg pointed out, through automation. Automation is a big lever for us and one that frankly we're using aggressively both in our manufacturing facilities but also in the office . And it's been enabling us to drive productivity.
Nicole De Blase:
Thanks for the clarification, guys. Super helpful.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research. Jeff, over to you.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Jeff Sprague:
Hey, good morning. Sort of a related question. Darius and Greg, one of the other themes out of earnings season so far is kind of the double-edged sword element of backlog. In other words, things not priced in the backlog for the current inflationary market. Given that you've run with relatively large backlogs, I just wonder if you could address the profitability in your backlog. Do you have inflation protection in any particular headwinds we should think about as that backlog converts?
Darius Adamczyk:
It's a very good question, Jeff, and we've thought about that one. And you're right. With aged backlog, you got to be very, very careful. Because if you don't go back and revisit your backlog and re-price it, then you're going to have a problem. And I can tell you that's a very active exercise we're doing because as you can imagine, I mean, whether -- just to quote some figures, steel is up 198% year-over-year, nickel 25%, copper 46%, aluminum 66%. I mean, these are fairly substantial increases. So what we've been doing in more or less all of our businesses, in particularly long-cycle ones, is trying to go back and re-price some of our backlog. You kind of almost have to do that because -- and that's even mentioned labor inflation, which we're also seeing. So it's part of our playbook -- part of our exercise, and exactly we've been trying to do.
Operator:
Okay. Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley. Josh, good morning and over to you.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hey, good morning, everybody. So I guess one question for Darius and Torsten since he's on the line as well, how's that $500 million of supply chain that you guys talked about at the 2019 Analyst Day looking? You're probably looking at the composition of that a little differently today, just given how much has changed. And then just a smaller follow-up, how do we think about the cadence of UOP catalyst shipments from here? Those look pretty solid in the quarter.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, let me start at the UOP question, I'll turn it over to Torsten for the other. I mean, UOP's bookings remain very, very strong. You saw that both in revenue and booking rates here in Q3, so we're optimistic. And keep in mind, which really gets us excited also, and I talked about this before, HPS follows UOP by a 12 - to 18-month cycle. So if UOP leads, HPS follows. And so that sort of gives you another good indicator that we should see a nice impact on -- in HPS 12 to 18 months from now. We've done this analysis before, and that's the typical lead-lag cycle. So not only is this good news -- and let's face it, we all read the same articles that world needs more energy. Some of this is going to come from renewables, but frankly, some of it is going to have to come from hydrocarbons as well. So we think that that's overall the world right now is energy short and there's going to be a reinvestment cycle, both in renewables and to some extent, hydrocarbons. I'll turn it over to Torsten.
Torsten Pilz:
Yeah. I mean, the $500 million there split primarily between our short-cycle business, especially in SPS and HBT, and the long-cycle business in Aerospace, so that's what we are seeing. We first saw dramatic impact on the short-cycle business. But now in Q3, we saw that supply shortage is not ticking in in also the long-cycle and the Aerospace business. But the majority sits primarily in the semiconductor-related short-cycle business.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Okay. Thanks, Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets. Deane, good morning. We'll come back to Deane. Our next question comes from Andrew Obin, from Bank of America. Andrew?
Andrew Obin:
Yes. Can you hear me?
Operator:
Yes. Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
Good morning. Just a question -- follow-up question. A, on China, when do you guys see China reaccelerating? And another question is, if I look at HPS and UOP, China has been a huge market, a huge source of growth. And what we've been reading is because of these energy constraints in China, China is reassessing some more commoditized energy-intensive industries like textiles but more importantly, chemicals. We've read about some chemical -- large chemical projects being canceled. What does it mean for HPS and UOP in China going forward? Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
First of all, we actually -- just to give you a data point from Q3. Our growth in China continues to be robust. We were up high single-digits in Q3 and we actually don't see that abating, so our position in China continues to be very good. Our orders rate continue to be -- as you know, there's probably a focus in China right now to actually generate more energy, particularly to support the industry right now that's happening in Q4. So we actually think that's going to create a very favorable investment environment and business opportunity for us. And the other business opportunity for us which we're very excited about, is a focus in China on sustainability. And when we think about some of the UOP, HPS solutions in our sustainability technology solutions business, that's going to create a giant opportunity for us in China, and, frankly, one we're very excited about. So we think that there's going to be a two-fold opportunity here. I think there's going to be a reinvestment cycle, what I call a little bit more of the traditional energy. But really an accelerated and more pronounced investment cycle in renewables. And as you know, we have a really strong position in China. And we think we could be a major player in that sustainability by.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz, from Citigroup. Andy?
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Morning.
Greg Lewis :
Morning.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
There's many of the multi-initiative peers that you have been relatively acquisitive over the last 6 months. We know Honeywell has been active also, but the level of activity has been maybe a little lower given the size of your Company. So is it just a function still evaluations being pretty high? And I know, Darius, you spoke about this before. You spoke in the last quarter, I think, just about being more aggressive with the balance sheet. So what does that mean? Do you see a step-up for Honeywell and M&A related activity over the next year?
Darius Adamczyk:
I think M&A is still the desired way to deploy capital. I mean, we just -- we have done Sparta this year, although it didn't require cash, we think the CQC Honeywell Quantum Solutions is a very important and meaningful transaction. Yeah, it's a merger, not a deployment of capital, but never the less, it is a transaction that's critical for us, we just didn't perform . It's a smaller acquisition, but it's a critically important one. And you see a little bit of a pattern, right? Sparta, Life Sciences, performance -- Performix, Life Sciences, we like that segment and we're going to continue to look. with this level of -- with this kind of interest rate environment that we have today, the M&A market is overheated. It is what it is. But I've said, we're not going to stay on the sidelines forever. I mean, yes, versus any historical metric, the multiples are hot. But -- and I don't love it but the market is what the market is. It doesn't mean we're going to stay on the sidelines forever and wait for some turn. I mean, it's been this way. If interest rates go up, I do think we'll probably cool off a little bit, so which may allow us to be even more active. But we are active, we're looking at numerous deals and nothing is a 100% the role of M&A s but we're hopeful we're going to be able to get something done. And certainly, once we deploy our capital in that way but it has to be the right business. It has to fit our technology orientation. It has to be at the right value for us, going over nothing is cheap these days. And we're thrilled in what we're doing it with Sparta, I think that's been -- looking back at this, it's been about 6 months plus since we've acquired that Company. It's going to be a winner. I'm very confident of that.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
I appreciate it, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Peter Arment from Baird. Peter?
Peter Arment:
Yes. Can you hear me?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes.
Greg Lewis :
Good morning, Peter.
Peter Arment:
Hey. Good morning, Darius, Greg. Darius, maybe you could just talk a little bit about how you're viewing SPS kind of margins, the outlook going there. You talked a little bit about improved mix and execution, but obviously, you're up against some headwinds there in that business. You talked a little bit about supply chain and also just the PP&E business declining. How should we think about just the outlook improving margins in SBS?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, well, as you know, the fastest-growing business in SBS isn't calibrated. It is margin-deluded, we've been talking about that. And look, that business grew 60% this quarter. Any business growing at that kind of pace is going to have some challenges. But you coupled that kind of level of growth, which pulls on things like electronics, steel, metal, With the supply chain challenges we have, it's going to have some efficiency challenges, particularly since it's -- there's a strong correlation between third party by, our own manufacturing, and installation. And when those things don't work together well, there's some challenges. I can tell you we're investing heavily in that business to really prepare it to be a $4 billion, $5 billion, $6 billion business, which is the path that it's on. There's an investment play, there's an efficiency play, and so on. Having said that, a lot of our other businesses, such as AST, such as TSS have been absolutely terrific for. PSS has been a great success story for us. It's winning in the marketplace. So we think that this sort of margin challenged going to abate over time, particularly as we made some of the process improvements and investments in Honeywell.
Greg Lewis :
Yes. I would just echo that. I mean, we've always talked about this as creating end market for ourselves for -- to follow later with service as a software, that's still our expectation. As Darius mentioned, when the material availability doesn't match up with the installation, labor, it becomes challenging. And that's really what we're facing right now. We'll get through it. But this availability of material throughout the supply chain creates some big challenges when you're seeing this type of growth.
Peter Arment:
I appreciate it all. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets. Deane, are you there?
Deane Dray:
Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Greg Lewis :
Hey, Deane.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey, sorry, I was juggling multiple calls this morning. So thanks for letting me get back in. I want to circle back on a topic that Josh raised, and just the idea of UOP leading HPS and it just begs the question about the oil and gas industry, Capex cycle. It's really been slow to recover here, but now with that spike in oil prices, what's your expectation on release of new projects? Even as simple as MRO has still been lagging as well, but what's your outlook there, please?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, I think this is becoming fairly obvious, and we all read the same articles and see what's going on, which is -- there's going to have to be a reinvestment cycle. As much as we all want sustainable and renewable technologies to take over sort of energy needs tomorrow, it's probably going to be a little bit of a longer-term. And it's very clear to me that there's going to be a reinvestment cycle. We're seeing a good reinvestment cycle when I call some of the shorter project refurbishment, focused it in the installed base, but we're strong believers there's going to be fairly strong reinvestment cycle in '22 and '23 here. I think that's necessary. So we're bullish on that segment. And certainly the price of oil, price of gas support that kind of investment. I mean, when you look at gas and oil, they are very, very attractive levels. What we nee now is some level of stability. So that's good. But let me give you a couple of other specific data points, Deane. Our renewable fuel orders this past quarter were up 86%. And I think we forget sometimes that we just characterize UOP as oil and gas. It is not just oil and gas, it has an incredibly strong Green Fuels portfolio, which is winning in the marketplace, where we can see an 86% growth. Also, some of our energy storage controls orders were up 64% this past quarter in our HPS business. So those are just a couple of data points for you that we are very excited about the energy future. We have a portfolio that's going to play on it. Having said that, there is going to have to be a reinvestment cycle and in what I call the all-energy infrastructure.
Deane Dray:
That's really helpful. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
All right. Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Joe?
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Greg Lewis :
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Guys, when I take a look at your performance just from a growth standpoint and what we're seeing from a backlog orders perspective, HBT is probably the one where we're seeing the biggest disconnects. And so I'm curious if you can maybe just provide a little bit more color on, whether it's specific components, labor, what specific regions you're really start seeing some of these supply issues -- supply constraint issues, and when we would expect some of that to alleviate for the growth to really pick up?
Greg Lewis :
Yeah, this is one of the places where the electronics shortages are very acute. And so just the Fire business in particular uses some very specific semiconductors, which have been extremely short. I think Doug Wright and the supply chain team have done a very good job of trying to free up capacity from other distribution points. They've also been doing -- we talked a little bit about the re-engineering work, they've done a lot of re-engineering to try to include different chip sets into some of their platforms. So this one is really pretty acutely tied to the whole capacity expansion that's going on in the fab industry. So I think we're going to feel this. We talked about the fourth quarter and into the first half of the year and this is one of the businesses that I think we're going to feel that probably more than others. But it will come to an end. I think it's a very -- it's not a thousand parts. It's measured in like tens of parts here.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our last question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Sheila, over to you.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning, Darius and Greg. And thanks for fitting me in.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning, guys. You guys noted it to an earlier question too. Defense is down mid-single-digits because of the supply chain issues. Maybe could you parse that a little bit about how much of that mid-single-digit decline came from U.S. DoD O&M budgets declining versus international programs? And somewhat related to that. Margins are still growing pretty nicely despite the supply chain issues and the OE growth in the quarter in Aero. So is defense materially lower or was there better price in the segment?
Greg Lewis :
Yeah, maybe I'll take the last one first. I mean, think about the operating leverage that we're getting across the portfolio. It's pretty heavy in Aerospace in particular. That was the -- we talked about our cost reduction programs last year and Aero was at the top of that list. PMT is second in terms of the level of fixed cost take-out. So part of what you're seeing from Aerospace, in terms of almost 400 basis point improvement is a big operating leverage that they're getting even though it's on only 2% revenue growth. In terms of the split between U.S. DOD and international, I think what we're seeing is similar to what we spoke about before. I mean, the U.S. DOD and international, both down from a demand perspective as we're going through that recalibration, if you will, on some of the pre -buying that has been done last year. And we do see the supply chain issues that we're having are really in a lot of the mechanical spaces. So I expect that we'll start seeing that improve as the supply chain -- the Aerospace supply chain complex ramps up into the fourth quarter, into the early part of next year. Torsten, of course, do you want to make a few comments on that?
Torsten Pilz:
I mean, this is -- we've seen this in '18 - '19 and we were eventually able to grow this by 18%, 19%, 20% year-over-year. And this would kick in the next couple of quarters.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Great. Thanks so much.
Torsten Pilz:
Thank you.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Darius Adamczyk for any additional closings. Darius, over to you.
Darius Adamczyk:
I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. We delivered strong third quarter results and we continued to navigate effectively through uncertainty, while gaining traction in key strategic growth factors in positioning ourselves to capitalize on improving key end-markets. Thank you all for listening and please stay safe and healthy. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect at this time. Have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Honeywell's Second Quarter Earnings Release. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be opened for your questions following the presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Reena Vaidya, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Reena Vaidya:
Thank you, Jake. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note, that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the second quarter of 2021, share our guidance for the third quarter and provide an update to our full year 2021 outlook. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Reena, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on Slide 2. We delivered another outstanding quarter, that exceed the high end of our second quarter organic sales growth, segment margin, and adjusted earnings per share guidance range, with top line growth and margin expansion in all four segments. We delivered organic sales growth of 15%, led by double digit growth in Safety and Productivity Solutions, Honeywell Building Technologies and Advanced Materials, and Performance Materials and Technologies. We also returned to growth in the commercial aerospace aftermarket and UOP, amid promising signs of recovery in all the oil and gas and Aerospace markets. Segment margin expanded 190 basis points to 20.4% driven by the impact of higher sales volumes. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.02, up 60% year-over-year and $0.06 above the high end of our guidance range. We delivered a strong second quarter and a first half of the year. I'm pleased with our performance and confident it will continue to execute and deliver through the ongoing recovery in our end markets. We're driving near-term growth in several areas of the portfolio, including warehouse automation, productivity solutions, building products and advanced materials. While the industries most affected by the pandemic, will continue improving throughout the year and into 2022. Orders were up over 20% year-over-year organically, driven by strength in Aerospace, PMT, HBT, and Productivity Solutions, creating a strong setup for growth. As always we continue to execute on our rigorous and proven operating system to drive outstanding shareholder value.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Darius, and good morning everyone. As Darius highlighted, we had a very strong second quarter, with sales up 15% organically, to $8.8 billion. Segment margin expansion of 190 basis points to 20.4% and free cash flow of $1.5 billion. We over delivered on our commitments again, building on the strong start we had in Q1. Let's take a minute to discuss how each of the segments contributed to that. Starting with Aerospace, second quarter sales were up 7% organically, as flight hours continue to improve, resulting in double-digit commercial aerospace aftermarket growth. That was partially offset by lower commercial original equipment and software defense volumes. Business aviation continues to be very robust, where flight hours have already returned to 2019 levels, as a portion of customers that previously travel commercially have transitioned to business jets, for health and safety reasons. We continue to expect the recovery in business travel, to lag the leisure travel recovery, however. We do expect to pick-up as we enter the second half of the year. As expected, air transport flight hours are recovering led by narrow body flight hours, while widebodies remain soft, as domestic travel recovers faster than international travel. As a result, our business aviation aftermarket sales were up 90% organically year-over-year, while our air transport aftermarket sales were up 32% year-over-year organically. Sequentially, overall commercial aftermarket sales were up 12% from 1Q '21, a promising sign that the recovery is gaining traction. Aerospace segment margin expanded 490 basis points to 25.7%. Turning to Building Technologies sales were up 13% organically, driven by robust demand for building products and solutions. We are seeing broad based strength across the Building Technologies portfolio and around the world, as people return to schools, offices and transportation hubs. Building Product sales and orders were both up double digits year-over-year, driven by demand for fire, security, and electrical products, as well as building management systems. Orders for Building Solutions projects and services were up over 25% year-over-year and the services backlog is up more than 30%, positioning the business for future growth. In addition, our portfolio of healthy Building Solutions maintain strong customer momentum, with approximately $90 million of orders booked in the second quarter for our total of approximately $150 million in the first half.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Greg. Current end market macro dynamics are creating the best set of circumstances that I've seen in the last 10 plus years, that I've been with Honeywell. The commercial aerospace recovery in view, upcoming capital reinvestment in the energy sector, non-residential construction spending returning 2019 levels and the exponential growth we continue to see in e-commerce, we are setting up an incredibly strong runway for medium-term growth. This macro setup, coupled the strategies we have in place that our focus in driving uniquely innovative and differentiated technologies that address the world's increasing demand for digital transformation, process technology and sustainable solutions, gives me great confidence in our outlook for 2022 and beyond. Let me start by talking about the medium-term dynamics in some of our key end markets. In commercial aerospace pent-up demand for leisure and business travel is expected to drive approximately 20% growth in flight hours, over the next two to three years. Business in general aviation flight hours have already recovered to 2019 levels. And we expect air transport narrowbody and widebody flight hours to recover by 2024. We are seeing a slower defense business, we are absorbing that in our strong 2021 outlook, and our growth trajectory for the next two years should remain robust. The energy markets are gaining traction and stabilizing oil prices, support an oncoming wave of capital reinvestment in this sector. With downstream customer CapEx expected to grow at a 6.5% compound annual growth rate over the next three years. As I said before, the investment cycle post downturn is a consistent theme and will be well positioned to capture our unfair share of it. Acceleration, refining and petrochemical volumes will drive demand for our high-margin catalyst in new greenfield and brownfield projects, over the medium term will drive demand for licensing, engineering and equipment, as well as our software and automation solutions. Our Building Technologies portfolio will continue to benefit from the ongoing global macro trends of sustainability, digitalization and public safety. Building owners are looking for healthy building solutions to create safe public spaces while optimizing energy consumption and productivity. Non-residential construction is expected to grow by $230 billion to $2.5 trillion by 2024. With refurbishments for healthy building is growing at a high single-digit compound annual growth rate over the next three years. We also expect tailwinds from sizable U.S. stimulus programs targeting airports, education and healthcare, as well as potential government infrastructure plans, which will provide a favorable setup for our Building Technologies business. We remain very well positioned to address the rapid evolution, that we see in the click and the collect consumer buying behavior, which is creating complex fulfillment and delivery needs. In fact, e-commerce is expected to make up approximately 30% of total retail sales by 2024. To meet this growing demand, as well as to prepare for intensifying labor shortages, retailers are meaningfully stepping up investments, and work flow technologies and automation, amplifying our already strong trajectory in this market, with our growing installed base and ample runway for high margin aftermarket opportunities. So, you see our macro setup is a strong, that has been a very long time. Now, let's turn to the next page. I want to highlight a few of our strategic vectors and that will play into our growth algorithm. Let's start with urban air mobility or UAM, one space where we see significant growth opportunity. The total available market will be around $120 billion annually in 2030, of which we are positioned to address $30 billion. We have leading fly by wire systems for a urban air mobility, avionics, in-vehicle management systems. In addition to highly differentiated, high assurance detect and avoid systems. We have already won $3.4 billion of content and another $1.8 billion of wins pending. And we have $7 billion in projected cumulative pipeline over the next five years, growing to $55 billion in cumulative pipeline out to 2030. So this is a really exciting business where we are already generating substantial wins with significant future potential. We're also generating growth through the Honeywell Connected Enterprise, which is underpinned by Honeywell Forge, our suite of SaaS applications, that drive operational excellence and are essential to day-to-day management of companies complex operations. Honeywell Connected Enterprise delivered double-digit recurring revenue growth, in orders were up over 20% in the second quarter, which serves as an excellent proof point, as we continue to focus on driving software growth. We are also recently launched a cloud-based connected building solutions, jointly developed through our SAP partnership. Our portfolio of connected solutions is demonstrating great momentum with 1 million instances of Tridium's Niagara deployed worldwide and over 5,000 Honeywell Forge OT cybersecurity projects delivered, to name a few examples. One of the newest additions to our portfolio, Sparta Systems, is also contributing to Honeywell software growth, with orders up over 30% in the first half of 2021. Sparta SaaS customer base has grown double digits since year-end 2020 and Sparta ended the second quarter of a backlog of over $100 million. Sparta systems recently announced that a leading European specialty pharmaceutical company implemented track wise digital solution suite, that includes , in addition to complaints handling, supplier quality management, document management and training management, to seamlessly integrate quality processes in data across its manufacturing operations and suppliers. So the Sparta integration is progressing smoothly, and I'm pleased with the results thus far. Finally, we continue to see strong demand for our portfolio of healthy building solutions, which I mentioned earlier. We booked around $150 million of healthy building orders in the first half and have a global pipeline of over $2 billion. A few examples of our customer wins across major verticals, include the Pittsburgh and San Diego International Airports, Syracuse University, and Wuhan Changfu Hospital. We anticipate the demand for healthy buildings will remain strong for the foreseeable future, is building managers seek to support occupant safety and comfort for returning workers, students, travelers and visitors. All four of the technologies on this page are proof point for our strategy of focusing R&D and breakthrough initiatives around disruptive trends, that will shape the global economy for years to come. We have many other equally exciting breakthroughs including quantum, sustainable technology solutions and smart cities for as an example. These provide numerous growth vectors which will be accretive to the recovery in our major end markets, which underpins my confidence in what is to come. Now, let's wrap up on Slide 10. So overall, we are encouraged by the performance of the first half of 2021. Our second quarter results exceeded expectations and given our confidence in our businesses. We have a meaningfully raised our full year sales segment margin, adjusted EPS and free cash flow guidance. The Honeywell value creation framework continues to set us apart and we'll continue to deliver for all of our shareholders. With that Reena, let's move to Q&A.
Reena Vaidya:
Thank you, Darius. Darius and Greg are now available to answer your questions. We ask that you please be mindful of others in the queue, by only asking one question. Jake, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
We will begin with Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Jeff.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Jeff Sprague:
Good morning. There's a lot of to ask. Actually, I'm just -- to the quantum, one thing that interested me in your comments there Darius, obviously the technology stuff is interesting. But the commercialization revenues of $1 billion, as soon as two years. I wonder if you could kind of talk a little bit about the difference between the two year and the five year framework there? Is there something in terms of a technical breakthrough -- further technical breakthrough that's required? Or it's more an issue of just developing the business model and kind of getting a customer set onboard with what you're doing here?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, I think, Jeff, more importantly it's a toggle between focused on progressing that technology versus focusing on commercialization. This business is generating revenue today for CQC and it's generating revenue today for Honeywell Quantum Systems. And we could focus on energy -- our energy and continuing to drive commercialization, but we're trying to be balanced between -- yes, driving some commercialization, securing some blue chip customers, but also continue to advance the technology. I mean, this isn't necessarily an instant gratification kind of a business, because if we just over function to commercialization, although we have a year or two lead on just about everybody else in the industry, that could get short change, if we don't continue to advance it. But I think that's more than anything. So the two to four year kind of a number is based on both how we see the technology evolving or two to five, and also how we see really us focusing on technology progress versus commercialization. And I think we want to maintain both, and not necessarily just full toggle to commercialization, because I think that could sacrifice progress on the technology.
Jeff Sprague:
Understood. Thanks a lot.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll now move to Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hey, good morning guys.
Greg Lewis:
Hey, Scott.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Scott Davis:
Good morning. You didn't fixate as much on supply chain and logistics of some of the other folks out there so far this quarter. But you did allude to it, potentially holding back growth, 0.4. Did it in fact hold back some growth this quarter? Is there anything that you can kind of report measure on there?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, it's got to be honest, the answers is yes. I mean, I think, our results for Q3 would have easily been $100 million to $200 million higher than what we're saying because of supply chain constraints. So, it is we're dealing with the two, it's a daily battle. Some of the areas that were particularly challenged are semiconductors, resins, those are probably our top two. But we're kind of seeing some supply chain pressure across the Board. And our orders are super strong, particularly in SPS and we could easily do $100 million to $200 million more in revenue this quarter in Q3, if we didn't have those challenges. So what we projected is kind of our reasonable best estimate of the supply we're going to get, based on, what our suppliers are committing. But it's a daily battle and where we've stood up a team on the supply side, stood up a team on the pricing side to really kind of manage both those things, because we're continuing to see inflation and we're actively managing price, which actually has been a good story, as we are able to pass most of that through.
Scott Davis:
Okay. I'll stick to one question. Thank you. Good luck, Darius and Greg.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks.
Operator:
Now we'll hear from Steve Tusa with J.P. Morgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey guys, good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
Can you just maybe talk about, you've mentioned before, kind of a mid-20s margin potential and you guys continue to do very well on the operating margin front. You sound obviously pretty bullish, even though you're markets aren't really firing on all cylinders yet. Is there a point in time, we are going to kind of officially update and kind of put a number like that up on -- as a mid-term target? And similarly on the growth side -- your current organic growth guidance is okay, longer-term, but like -- if you're just bullish on these growth vectors shouldn't it be a bit better than that? And again, is there a time where you would kind of update those medium term targets?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, it's a fair question. I think we are tentatively planning an Investor Day in November, that's probably a good time to really look at our targets. But as you hear, we are very, very optimistic about our markets here in the short to mid-terms. I mean, that we're going to have a strong tailwinds, you're just now starting to see some of our higher margin long-cycle business, as you saw very first evidence of that pickup in PMT. Aero is going to continue to improve. Widebody and narrowbody traffic is going to continue to improve. We absorbed some of the defense and space challenges this year, so that's already embedded, and we expect that to normalize. So, as we look into next year and the year after, and the year after, I mean, we are going to be -- we're looking at our growth and margin expansion algorithm. As well as, don't forget we still have plenty of firepower on the balance sheet, which we plan to deploy and the pipeline is good, and we plan to be using it a bit more aggressively as we move forward. So, I think the set up for Honeywell, and I mean this, I haven't seen it be any better, since I've been at Honeywell and that's 13 years. So, I think, I couldn't be more excited about what the future holds.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I mean, I guess, I would...
Steve Tusa:
Go ahead. Sorry, Greg.
Greg Lewis:
I was just going to say, Steve, I agree with all that. I mean, as you know, we're pretty close to our targets in HBT. Already we've made really steady progress in Aerospace. SPS has a lot of room to run with rolling out all of the project business and Intelligrated, and all of the services and software that we expect to come behind it, still to come. So yes, I think we'll talk to you about that in the back half of this year, as we get closer to the year-end and our guide for 2022.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, I guess I'm just trying to reconcile like a 3% to 5% growth outlook longer-term. It doesn't really jive with how bullish you sound on kind of the top line opportunities, including quantum and these other things that are out there. So that's kind of the genesis of the question.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Look forward to sharing more with you at our Investor Day and so on.
Greg Lewis:
I think .
Steve Tusa:
Go ahead, sorry. Got it. One last quick .
Greg Lewis:
Go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
One last quick one, just on the masks. Is there any difference in profitability on the PP&E side with those masks that are beginning to roll down here? Are they particularly profitable or what's kind of the earnings contribution? Because I think you set those up in a hurry, a year ago. Just curious as to what the profit impact is?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So, as you may have heard within the quarter, I mean, some of our production, we basically shutdown because when we set it up in a hurry to literally within 30 days, when the pandemic struck in April 2020, we didn't optimize for cost we optimized for speed. And frankly that wasn't a very high margin gain for us. We did that because the country needed us to do it. We didn't do it to maximize profit. So now when we reduced production, we reduced production and highly inefficient -- highly manual sales, that we were, that we could bring up quickly. But what we replace that production, is with highly automated sales, which will drop our cost per mask under range of 50%. So, positioning the business for the future is still going to be very, very strong. And you know, our IRRs and that's assuming there is not a pickup in future of masks. And as we read more and more about Delta variant, that we don't know what's going to happen. But even that IRR is greater than 20%. So better than any other investment. And like I said, this wasn't done to sort of optimize profitability. So, we got some revenue, we didn't necessarily get a ton of margin with it. And now we're in a better position, because we got production, that's done through automation, which will drop our cost profile by about 50% per mask.
Steve Tusa:
Right. So actually accretive to incrementals as that kind of rolls down and your other stuff rolls on?
Darius Adamczyk:
That's right.
Steve Tusa:
Yes. Great. Okay. Thanks a lot.
Darius Adamczyk:
That's correct.
Greg Lewis:
Yes.
Operator:
We'll now take a question from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thanks so much and good morning, Darius and Greg.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Hi, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Since I'm the Aero person, I guess, I'll ask on defense, stellar growth over the last three years. Maybe can you talk about, the decline you saw in the quarter. What drove it with the U.S. budget and internationally, kind of, how do you expect that trajectory to improve from here? And the impact on maybe profitability? Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Sure. So maybe I'll start. One is, obviously the defense and space segment is the one that's been a bit worse than we expected this year, it's the bad news. The good news is that, we expect that to normalize 2022 and 2023. So, we're kind of taking a little bit of what I'd say, hits this year. The narrowbody, the widebody flight hours, you see that in the deck, we expect it to continue to progress. The AT ROE after business is also going to continue to progress, we kind of see steady progress here in Q3, Q4 and so on. Business aviation has been strong, both on the aftermarket, as well as the OE side, that's going to continue to progress. So overall, there is, we have great deal of optimism for what we're going to see in Aerospace and the margin performance will be very commensurate with that. Because some of the widebody narrowbody aftermarket revenue is still not kicking in, which as you know, it's going to be some of our highest margin profile. So we're -- it feels like we're kind of taking a hit on defense and space this year, next year that looks can be much more normalized. And then next year we also expect to see a high level of growth in the commercial aerospace.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next question will be from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. Good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning, Andrew.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
Can you just talk, sort of big picture on what are you seeing on PMT, very good to see your outlook improve. What is sort of the big trends that made your customer base more positive? And what are the big sort of data points of trends we should be watching out for to gauge? And what are you trying to look at to gauge --sort of the direction of the industry into '22 and '23? Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Thank you Andrew for the question. I mean, I think the first thing we always look at is UOP. UOP is a leading indicator of that business. HPS trails, UOP orders by anywhere from 12 to 18 months. And UOP orders for the quarter were nearly 30% up, just to give you a perspective. So that's probably the single best data point. For our overall total, every business was up just about double digits, in terms of orders in PMT. Our backlog was up in PMT. So, all good signs. The other part that we're starting to see strong level of presence both for our Honeywell Process Solutions business, as well as UOP in some of the renewable projects. And you probably saw the Wabash Valley announcement, around carbon capture, capture that UOP one. Process solutions is winning in a lot of the wind farm projects, solar farm projects. So we're shifting focus to where the future is, while maintaining our presence in some of our traditional markets. And as we know and we saw this movie before in the '15 and '16 timeframe, you can only depress that downstream investment for so long. And we saw that come back strong in '17 and '18. We anticipate the very same thing will happen in '22 and '23. And by the way, a lot of these petrochemical refining facilities are going to have to get reconfigured for the future of energy, which is going to be incremental growth, which is yet to see. So, we're actually very, very bullish on that market, and it's being reflected today in some of our orders -- order like rates.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you very much.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Andrew.
Operator:
Moving on to Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Hey, good morning guys.
Greg Lewis:
Good Morning, Joe.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Joe Ritchie:
As I think about your portfolio and then also your capital structure, it just seems like the -- one of the biggest levers you have really to move the needle is putting your capital to work via M&A. And I know we've talked a lot about the organic growth opportunities. But I'm just curious like as you think about prioritizing capital in the areas that you're looking to invest from an inorganic standpoint, like how are you thinking about the priority? I know, you mentioned the pipeline looks good and any additional color there Darius, would be great.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, let me take that one, Joe. We are obviously -- our balance sheet as we've talked about all through last year is incredibly strong. It is a world-class balance sheet, whether you look at -- our pension funding, our cash position and so on. And M&A is a priority for us. We're -- as we've always talked about, we're not going to overpay and spend silly multiples on things. But we definitely are prioritizing M&A, you saw that in the first half of the year, with some of what we've done with Sparta and Fiplex. And you can imagine, quantum is essentially an M&A deal if you will, in terms of the $200 million, $300 million that we're going to be plowing into that here and that will happen, as we close out on that combination. So, we're very excited about using our balance sheet to drive M&A and add accretive business to our portfolio.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. And just to maybe add one other point to that is, our balance sheet is more pristine than it's ever been. Because if you look at our pension funding, it's now around 120% mark. If you look at our liabilities, which are either dropping or their secured through other instruments. So we have a very, very different balance sheet that we did, even five years ago. And we're going to be a bit more comfortable in terms of having a greater level of leverage, given the safety of the balance sheet, which actually provides even more potential for capital deployment. And I agree with you, I think, capital deployment is a big lever. So this is kind of goes back to my prior point, that I made in the presentation, which is our markets are at a tailwind and we've got tremendous capacity on our balance sheet. This is kind of a rare point in the Honeywell history, where you've got good tailwinds from the markets. I talked about our strategies are working, and we've got a lot of deployment capacity on the balance sheet. I don't think there has been a better time to really -- for our position .
Joe Ritchie:
Hey guys, that's super helpful. If I could just one quick follow-on there, because this has been brought up a few times around the balance sheet. You guys were referenced recently in a settlement with 3M, on PSOA and that is a concern in terms of like their ability to deploy their capital in their balance sheet? Just, I guess, focused on typically think if you guys are being pride into those liabilities. And so any comments just around that settlement or potential liability from ?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. The only comment I would make Joe is, our environmental reserves cover everything that is, that we're working on. We've done a ton of work over the last, gosh, probably 15 years relative to all the environmental obligations that the company has had. We've done tremendous things to clean up the areas that we've had involvement in, I think those have been some of our greatest accomplishments from an ESG perspective. And so, this announcement that you're referring to is, is no big news for Honeywell and is captured in our financial position, as we have continued to report this data.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I would certainly not reiterated any new news or incremental or some new liability that surfacing. I mean, it's a matter of fact, I think that there was a subset of reporting and actually a false thing to a close. So, I wouldn't read anything more into that.
Joe Ritchie:
Great. Thank you both.
Operator:
And next we'll hear from John Walsh with Credit Suisse.
John Walsh:
Hi, good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning, John.
John Walsh:
Wanted to ask, kind of a question, combo question here about pricing and also kind of the margin you're booking in backlog here at a couple of your longer cycle businesses Intelligrated, HBT, PMT, clearly strong demand, you have stimulus dollars flowing into these markets. We're not hearing, there is really much excess capacity. So, how should we think about kind of the margin profile of the projects that are now coming into the backlog, and the visibility that gives you going forward? Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, Yes, so maybe first on the pricing side, as Darius mentioned in some of his comments, that's something that we have always and continued to have a very strong eye on. And so, everywhere in our books of business that we can, we continue to pass through the inflation, that's being seen and materials and also in the labor, because in the projects business, labor is also important as well. So, I would say, as we're looking at our margin and backlog, we're not seeing any material challenges to them. It doesn't mean that, because we are being able to price these things in. So, I wouldn't call that as -- any like a big change in our profile, but it's something we keep a very strong eye on. We talked about it, in Intelligrated, the project business, there is lower than the line average for the business overall. And that's part of the hypothesis for the business in general. Capture the -- capture the volume and then follow that through with services and software, just as we had done in process solutions. So, I think, what we're doing is, we're finding success in being able to price with the inflationary environment, that we're seeing. And we're going to continue to manage through that, I think quite well, and in all of our project businesses, but it is something to keep an eye on.
John Walsh:
Yes, I was actually even coming at it from it could it actually be an unexpected tailwind, just given how tight some of these markets are, right. I mean, there is only players that can stand up an automated warehouse or do some of these really large performance contracting projects, that sounds like, you're seeing a good pipeline of that develop, but I appreciate the color. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
You got it.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Just want to go back to Steve's question on the medium-term margins. Greg, did you endorsed 25% medium term margin, just has been to clarify that. My real question is, in terms of the cadence from here on. Number one, can you just confirm again, Greg, if the cost base is now fully loaded with the temporary costs? I think they meant to be all back in, in 2Q. But are there any big investment spending on the horizon? Doesn't feel like Aerospace has a big investment cycle ahead of it. But some of these breakthrough initiatives maybe quantum, might. So, maybe just talk about that. Thanks.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. Yes. So the temporary cost we still have the third quarter to go, because if you think about last year as an example, we furloughed in the second quarter and in the third quarter of 2020. And if you think about the return to things like travel and the cost that comes along with T&E, I mean, we're just now in the second quarter, starting to get the organization back out on the streets, to see customers and to go visit our businesses. So, I would say, you're still going to see another step up here in the third quarter, in terms of the return of those temporary cost. And then the majority of those will be gone, those still be a little bit to trickle in 4Q, but third quarter is still yet to come. We are investing in the business as though, and that's again part of the reason when we talk about the $1 billion net cost reduction and that $0.5 billion of increase, that is also absorbing some increase in R&D, which is happening in places like quantum, it's happening in places like Aerospace, it's happening in our Honeywell Connected Enterprise, just to name a few. And we continue as the environment strengthens commercially, we're going to invest back in the business in terms of sales resources and feet on the street and so on. So, we have a lot of confidence in being able to deliver the year with the net $0.5 billion increase, that we talked about, and that is going to encompass both the temporary cost return and some additional investments.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And next we will hear from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. Go ahead.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hey, good morning guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey, Josh.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Maybe just to follow up on Nigel's questions there either . On the Aero side for margins, obviously, if we look back over the last -- call it 18 months, there is some pretty high watermarks and low watermarks. Where do you see that trending over the next kind of couple of quarters here? I understand, you maybe the mix implications of what's going on, on the defense and space side. But maybe sort of a unbound by calendar year-end timeframe of what that progression maybe looks like, as that business normalizes?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I would say, Josh, what you're going to see -- I mean, we talked about the fact that 1Q was abnormally high. We had a $30 million one-time benefit that flew through the P&L. We also, we're still getting the benefit of some of the big cost-outs that we had taken last year. We came in 2Q, just about where we had expected, and that call it high 25 type of range. I think, we printed something like 25.7%, and I expect you're going to see that just kind of creep up through the third and the fourth quarter, as we go forward prospectively. And again more of the aftermarket business starts making its way through the P&L.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, the segments that we actually, are looking forward to enjoying the benefits from a margin perspective more, is just return the flight hours, particularly for widebodies and some more to narrowbodies. And we project that will slowly improve. I know, it's going to be correlated to vaccination rates throughout the world. We're seeing traffic pick up, the consumer traffic is strong. Actually, there is a lot of pent-up traffic demand for international travel. And that's what I said, is that, as we look at the next two to three years, it's going to get gradually better and better. And probably if there was a drawback, we absorbed it this year, in terms of the defense and space, and we expect that to normalize next year. So, that's probably the only segment, that we had some concerns about, but that's already reflected in our 2021 guide. And as I said, 2022 and beyond looks better.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. That's helpful. Appreciate the question guys.
Greg Lewis:
You bet. Thank you.
Operator:
And our final question today will come from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes. Thanks for squeezing me in guys.
Greg Lewis:
Hey, Nicole.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Nicole DeBlase:
Hi, there. So I guess, maybe a follow-up to -- Josh's follow up or Nigel's question. I'm thinking about margins for SPS and PMT in the second half. Margins in both segments are usually pretty heavily influenced by mix, and there is a lot of moving pieces. So, can you just talk a little bit about, along the lines of what you discussed for Aerospace, what you're thinking for SPS and PMT in the second half?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. It's going to be a pretty similar theme again, as we think about the mix for SPS in particular, that's actually going to improve. I talked about the fact that we hit the peak for this year, in terms of the project rollouts in Intelligrated. So, that's going to come down a little bit, which will provide a little bit of a mix benefit on the overall profile. So, I expect to see again sequential improvement in margins in the back half of the year, in SPS. And again the same thing being true as we think about PMT ramping up and starting to see what we did here this quarter, in terms of the catalyst shipments coming through, as Darius highlighted, our UOP backlog is very strong. And so as that begins delivering particularly around the catalyst side, that brings with it, some nice margin accretion. We've always talked about the fact, that you can't look at what PMT margins in any one quarter. As indicative that moves around a bit with the mix around catalyst. But I do expect that to also improve in the back half of the year, as we continue to see that strengthening growth rate. So, again, that's why we feel very good about where we are right now, as we exit the first half, and we look forward to a very good second half of the year. And a nice finish, that's why we upgraded our margin range on the low-end, by the 10 basis points that we did. So, I think things are trending nicely across all of the -- all other segments.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. And I think maybe just something else to add which may be goes unnoticed, but, if you look at sort of as deep as we were hit in 2020, with some of our end markets, we're now projecting for EPS range. We're basically going to be right back where we were in 2019. So, think about that as a one-year pause, for business that's better positioned with more tailwinds than it's ever had and a strong balance sheet. So, I think that, I think from where we said, things look quite strong.
Nicole DeBlase:
Got it. Thanks, Darius and Greg.
Greg Lewis:
You bet. Thank you.
Operator:
And this would conclude today's question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Darius Adamczyk for closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. We have delivered strong results in the first half of an uncertain year, and we're well positioned to capitalize on improving conditions in key end markets, while driving near term growth opportunities across our portfolio. I've never been more excited about Honeywell's future, than I am today. Thank you for listening, please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude your conference for today. We do thank you for your participation. And you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen please standby. Good day and welcome to the Honeywell's First Quarter Earnings Release. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for questions following the presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Bendza, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you, Jake. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's first quarter 2021 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance and our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the first quarter of 2021, share our guidance for the second quarter and provide an update to our full year 2021 outlook. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you Mark and good morning everyone. Let’s begin on Slide 2. We delivered a very strong start to 2021 exceeding the high end of our first quarter organic sales growth, segment margin and adjusted earnings per share guidance range. In the first quarter we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.92 down 13% year-over-year and $0.09 above the high-end of our guidance range. Organic sales were down 2% year-over-year, a 5 percentage points sequential improvement from the 7% organic sales decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. We drove year-over-year organic sales growth in two out of our four segments, HBT and SPS despite facing difficult comps since the first quarter of 2020 wasn't fully impacted by the pandemic. Honeywell Building Technologies have returned to growth and safety and productivity solutions achieved an outstanding 47% organic growth in the quarter. We also drove double-digit year-over-year organic growth in connected software sales driven by strong demand for our connected buildings and cyber solutions. We delivered segment margin of 21%, 10 basis points above our guidance with margin expansion in aerospace, HBT, and SPS. We generated $757 million of free cash flow in the quarter, a strong performance despite increased investment in high return capital expenditures, which were up approximately $80 million year-over-year as we position ourselves for the recovery.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you and good morning, everyone. As Darius highlighted, we're very pleased with our start to 2021. While the COVID pandemic continues to impact some of our end markets, our laser focus on demand generation, operational execution, and cost management enabled us to over deliver on our commitments. First quarter sales declined by 2% organically due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which represents a 5 percentage point sequential improvement from the fourth quarter. As Darius mentioned, that was driven by robust double-digit growth in our warehouse automation solutions and personal protective equipment businesses, as well as continued demand for our building products and services, advanced materials strength, and strength in our connected software. We expanded margins year-over-year in three out of four segments, aerospace, HBT, and SPS for the second consecutive quarter, limiting Honeywell's overall segment margin contraction to 80 basis points and ending the quarter with a segment margin of 21%. Our commercial excellence and strong cost management, as well as an approximately $30 million one-time benefit in aerospace drove 10 basis points of outperformance in segment margin compared to the high-end of our guidance range despite the mixed headwind from much stronger sales and our lowest margin segment SPS. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.92, down 13% year-over-year. This was $0.09 above the high end of our guidance, driven by segment profit improvement from higher sales volumes and by a lower than expected effective tax rate. From a year-over-year perspective, below the line items were an $0.11 headwind driven by lower interest income in FX and higher repositioning and interest expense, partially offset by higher pension income. Our effective tax rate was higher than the first quarter of 2020, primarily due to benefits realized in the prior year period from tax law changes in India and the resolution of certain U.S. tax matters driving a $0.13 headwind. This was partially offset by a $0.03 EPS benefit from lower share count. A bridge of all this from 1Q 2020 to 1Q 2021 adjusted EPS can be found in the appendix of this presentation. We generated $978 million of cash from operations up 4% year-over-year despite lower net income. Free cash flow for the quarter was $757 million, down 5% year-over-year due to higher capital expenditures, particularly in SPS, as we continue to expand PPE capacity. Working capital improvements including strong collections, offset these headwinds during the quarter, driving adjusted free cash flow conversion of 56%, up 500 basis points from the prior year. As you know, the first quarter is historically our lowest from a cash perspective, and we remain on track to our full year cash guidance. I'll talk more about our full year outlook in a few minutes.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Greg. Before we wrap up, I'd like to take a minute on Slide 8 to discuss ESG. At Honeywell we consistently say and firmly believe that a robust environmental, social, and governance framework enables us long-term success. In fact, responsible corporate citizenship is an essential part of our value creation framework. Importantly, we announced a commitment earlier this month to become carbon neutral in our operations and facilities by 2035. This represents a continuation of our ongoing sustainability efforts, which have already reduced the greenhouse gas intensity of our operations and facilities by more than 90% since 2004. In addition, we worked extensively to increase energy efficiency, conserve water, minimize waste, and proactively champion responsible remediation projects that restore valuable community assets. We plan to achieve our commitment through a combination of further investments in energy savings projects, conversion to renewable energy sources, completion of capital improvement projects at our sites, and in our fleet of company vehicles and utilization of credible carbon credits. We have decades long history of innovating to help customers meet their environmental and social goals. In fact, about half of Honeywell's new product introduction to research and development investment, is directed towards products that improve environmental and social outcomes for customers. For example, the widespread adoption of Honeywell Solstice line of low global warming potential refrigerants, blowing agents and aerosols has already reduced the equivalent of more than 200 million metric tons of carbon dioxide to date, equal to eliminating the emissions from more than 42 million cars. A few days ago, we announced that Whole Foods Market has adapted to Solstice N40 lower global warming potential refrigerant in more than 100 of U.S. stores as it seeks to reduce refrigerant emissions under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's green shield program. This is just one example of how our innovative products and services continue to improve customer sustainability profiles and how Honeywell is playing an active role in shaping our future that is safer and more sustainable for generations to come. Now let's wrap up on Slide 10. In summary, we delivered a strong start to 2021 with first quarter results that exceeded expectations. We're seeing promising signs of rapid recovery in some of our markets and we're executing in our rigorous and proven value creation framework, which consistently delivers shareholder outperformance in all economic cycles and will continue to enable us to return to our key long term growth commitments in 2021 and beyond. With that Mark, let's move to Q&A.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you Darius. Darius and Greg are now available to answer your questions. We ask that you please be mindful of others in the queue by asking only one question. Jake, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Yes. . We will begin with Steve Tusa with J.P. Morgan.
Stephen Tusa:
Hey guys, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Stephen Tusa:
I'll ask my one question in five parts. On the second quarter you guys had said in the last call that margins would kind of build from 1Q to 2Q even excluding the $30 million in Aero, they are down. First of all, kind of what changed relative to what you were expecting back then? And then second of all, just in kind of the second half of the year normally things kind of level out from the second quarter, is this year going to be a little bit different seasonally, given the later cycle nature of the company? And then last one would be on aerospace, how do you think your performance compared to like what you gauge as flight hours, this quarter on your aftermarket?
Darius Adamczyk:
That was almost five but I think you got to four. Let’s go with the margins, on the margins the biggest thing that changes is the mix makeup of our Q2 and sort of the fastest growing business for us is Intelligrated, which was going to be growing even faster than we anticipated. And think about sort of a mid to high double-digit growth rate for that business. So we -- our bookings, our success, our output is growing and frankly it's mixing in at even more as part of the overall portfolio. So that is the number one in primary reason that there is a little bit of that change. Some of the headwinds merits the thing that we anticipated there, so there's really no change in that, but the short answer is the Intelligrated business is growing even faster than we anticipated, and continues to be a growth engine for us. In terms of the second half, I think the one thing to be -- to interpret it wrongly per earnings releases that were somehow less bullish on our second half, we're not. Now, we're actually very excited about the second half but frankly it's one quarter in and a year where there are many, many unknowns, including COVID rates, in terms of infection rates, and current supply chain, and so on. We don't see anything in there that we are particularly worried about, but it is one quarter into a year, which probably has many more unknowns than most. I think your third question was around sort of what's up, what's down. I would say -- I would characterize the following in terms of our BGA hours are actually up vis-à-vis our initial assumptions. So that's what's up. What's down is our air transport, which obviously is a bigger number vis-à-vis BGA. So, in total we're about the same, but it's a little bit different. And then lastly, I would tell you that, defense and space was roughly where we expected the U.S. markets were strong. The internationals were a little bit weaker. We're sort of looking at that for the rest of the year, we don't know if there was some sort of channel loading that kind of happened at the end of the year. Not that we drove it, but the distributors themselves. So, those are sort of the puts and takes, but the framework that everybody ought to just fully understand is we are very bullish on our markets. And what we're seeing is the short cycles coming back very strongly compared you also add onto Intelligrated. I mean, when was the last time Steve, you have seen any segment in any of our peers grow 47% year-over-year? I mean, that's remarkable. And now in the sec, whether it's in the third or fourth quarter of this year, you're going to see some of our longest cycle businesses coming back, whether it's PMT and aerospace, I can't exactly call it whether that's Q3 or Q4. There's a lot of moving pieces, but they're going to come back and as you well know, those are higher margin businesses. So we're -- I think we're on a really, really nice ramp here coming up for our future. Greg, I don't know if you have anything to add.
Greg Lewis:
No, I think you hit it right on and I think we've positioned ourselves well for what's to come. You mentioned some of the temporary costs that we talked about coming back and they will be coming back starting in 2Q, merits go in in April. So, these are things that -- and we're going to increase our investment in R&D as we said. So, I think you hit the salient points.
Stephen Tusa:
Thanks. Just FYI Pool Pumps grew 50% this quarter. So, they beat you guys on that front, Pentair, Pool Pumps, just letting you know. Thanks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Pool Pumps well, it was pretty close there Steve. 47 to 50 you know.
Operator:
We will now take our next question and that will come from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Good morning guys. Do I read your answer to mean that you're going to enter the Pool Pump business?
Darius Adamczyk:
Apparently it's an opportunity we need to go investigate.
Scott Davis:
I'm going to keep it simple. Can you just talk about price kind of broadly versus cost?
Darius Adamczyk:
Sure. Yeah, no, it's yeah. That's definitely a watch out item for the year and for us, inflation is taking hold. There's no doubt about it. We knew it. We see it, it's real, and if you don't stay on top of it, the two areas where -- and this is not a surprise, steel, semiconductors, copper, ethylene those are the four elements that we saw substantial inflation in Q1. I can tell you that we stood up a pricing team, which has been in place since the beginning of the year. We're quickly taking actions and we are staying ahead of it and we're going to continue to monitor what happens and stay ahead of it. But it's a watch out item. I don't think things are going to abate. The short cycle is definitely hot. We all read the same articles around semiconductors and what's going on there. And I think we're going to have to just stay ahead of it, but, we do expect an inflationary environment this year and we're going to stay ahead of it. That's our commitment.
Scott Davis:
Okay, I'll pass it on. Thank you guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
We will now hear from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, morning. Maybe just sticking to the one question rule, the SPS margin outlook, maybe just give us some context short and long term. I think you'd said Q2 the margins probably worse so maybe how large is that sequential step down in SPS? And also longer-term you've got that close to 20% guide out there, what's the approximate sort of aspiration of when people should think about that or is it just sort of off the table for the medium term because of how good the growth is?
Greg Lewis:
Yeah, so Julian, I don't think we said that margins contract in SPS sequentially. I think what we were trying to highlight is simply it's at in the 14s, it's the lowest one in the portfolio and it's driving the biggest part of the growth. So it gives some pressure to the overall margin expansion for Honeywell. I think we're going to see margins improve modestly for SPS during the course of the year. Because even for Intelligrated as an example, we're going to have our peak quarter most likely here in Q2 on the revenue side. And then that will start to abate a little bit as the year progresses as well. You know that that business can be very lumpy on the install, that's not new news. So the movement of that will influence either the margin progression. As it relates to your 20% target, we absolutely still have that in mind in the longer-term. It's probably not 24 months from now. We've talked quite a bit about trying to capture the install base, particularly in the warehouse segment and the whole point of that has been to follow with a terrific service in aftermarket business with software attached. And so, as and when that shift occurs then we'll see those margins mixing up. And then again with the recovery that we've had in places like PSS, which I think Kevin Day Hoffman and the team there have done a terrific job in that business. We start seeing margin accretion again in there. So, we still have a very much a line of sight to that 20%. But with roughly maybe even close to a $3 billion business in warehouse this year at the lower margin, that's going to give it some short-term pressure.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. If I could just maybe add a little more color on the long-term and this is I think very, very consistent of the framework we provided. The Intelligrated business is growing at highly dynamic range. I mean, think mid to high double-digit kind of range. And in mixes down, even moving the SPS portfolio. We've been -- that's not news. I think what is news, is that we're continuing to take substantial market share in the marketplace building installed base and as the build out of the warehouse infrastructure moderates we're going to get higher margin business because obviously then it's going to mix much more of the . So there's really no bad news here. This is actually fantastic news that we're taking share, growing extraordinarily quickly. And as I've said, all along Intelligrated has -- is the best acquisition we've ever done at Honeywell. Now it's more or less undeniable. And, it's a business that continues to do well and I see it being primarily a projects business for the next short to midterm because the demand is still very, very high, whether it's north America and Europe, and we're going to capture that share. Ultimately it is going to become our higher margin business as it becomes a bit more installed base centered.
Julian Mitchell:
That's great. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. You bet.
Operator:
Next up we have Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yeah thanks, good morning guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
So maybe I wanted to focus a little bit on HBT. I know that's part of the whole margin mix down dynamic for the year, but HBT margins continue to move higher and were a lot better than we had expected this quarter. I guess how do you think about the sustainability of the strong incrementals you saw there in the first quarter, if you could kind of talk about the 1Q dynamics as well as how you see margins progressing throughout the rest of year in that business?
Darius Adamczyk:
We're very bullish in the HBT business, the healthy buildings offerings has kicked in. As you know, we booked roughly a 100 million of that business in year 2000. We expect it to be several hundred million in the year 2021. We're -- as we look at the Biden infrastructure plan, there's a substantial amount of money, something to the tune of 50 billion for particularly education and infrastructure. We think that there we're going to be able to play in there. The team has done a great job managing the margin profile and the mix. So we -- we're very bullish on what's going to happen to HBT and we think we're very constructive on it for the rest of the year.
Greg Lewis:
And I would just say the -- as you mentioned very strong margins in the first quarter, 22.5%. Our long-term target in this business was 23. So this is one, this is the beauty of the portfolio. You don't get everyone exactly at the same time, but this is one that's trending towards the high end. Some of that is going to be a little bit abated in the second half and perhaps even in the second quarter as the projects business becomes a bit bigger in the mix. But we feel very good about the progress that that team has made overall, over the last 18, 24 months post the spin of the homes business. I think they've done a terrific job in productivity, on footprint, new product introductions. So, I really think what and that team have been doing is quite good. And, they're approaching their long-term target here, as we roll through 2021.
Nicole DeBlase:
Got it. Thanks. I'll pass it on.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will now hear from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Deane Dray:
Yeah, I would love to get some color on Sparta, those are pretty heady numbers, sales up 25%, bookings up 75%. Just give us a sense of what's the normalized run rate, what are the applications and its kind of reminiscent of the way Intelligrated started and it turned out to be pretty sustainable in terms of double-digit, so just level-set us here if you could please?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, no, good question. We're very, very happy with the start in Sparta. And sometimes when you acquire a business, you kind of hold your breath until you actually own it and say, okay, did we buy what we thought we bought. And I'm very, very happy to report that we're very excited about the business. We bought exactly what we thought we're going to buy. The first quarter numbers speak for themselves in a strong, double-digit growth. Bookings that are sort of multiples of that. Being in the life sciences space and providing quality management solutions is I think going to have a very, very long runway for the future. We've got a great team in place there. We augmented the team with some professionals as well, and we're extraordinarily well-positioned to make that a big winner and then drive the synergies of our Honeywell Process Solutions business. I mean we forget that that business is now really growing to our life sciences segment of the business at a disproportionate rate. This will be a further catalyst to enable even more growth. And by the way, it's substantially margin accretive too. So, we're -- it wasn't kind of -- it wasn't maybe the typical Honeywell acquisition that we make, but we feel very, very good about it now kind of being the proud owner for about a quarter and it all looks good for Q2 and the rest of the year as well.
Deane Dray:
Great. Thanks. I'll pass it on.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Moving on to Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague:
Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey Jeff, good morning.
Jeff Sprague:
Good morning. We'll keep an eye on Sparta, but for now the second best acquisition Honeywell ever did was UOP. I wonder if we could talk about that a little bit more. And really the kind of the nature of my question is it is very interesting to see the backlog pickup, right. We are seeing this high level of activity in the chem space in particular, that's probably pushing out turnarounds, but maybe you could just give us a little bit more color on how you see the year playing there, how the business might kind of mix? And, if there's any kind of related commentary and HPS is part of that answer, that would certainly be interesting?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, yeah Jeff. Well, I think there was certainly some encouraging signs in Q1. I mean, we had double-digit bookings, in the -- their services, their catalyst part of the business is coming back. Our sort of book-to-bill is in much better shape this year than versus our assumptions this year versus where it was last year. So that's also promising signs. We're seeing some activity come back and I also want to highlight maybe a very important part of that portfolio for our future, which is the sustainability technology solutions business. It's quote logs is in the hundred millions of dollars range now and growing very, very quickly. It's bookings were up 25% and we're talking to diff literally tens of different energy producers today about our sustainability technology solutions portfolio, which is highly expansive from plastics recyclability, to eco finding, to energy storage, to hybrid -- to hydrogen energy, to carbon capture. We have all these solutions. So I am very optimistic about that business, and it may look very different three to four years from now than it does today because we've over-invested into our sustainability technology solutions portfolios. Now on the larger projects and you know this, sort of the OPEX, CAPEX budgets. And I sort of expect that although I would view the price of oil and gas to be very friendly towards investment. We think that that's still could be a couple of quarters away just because of where the budgets were set for a lot of the majors. And, as you know they were depressed for this year, however, they are investing in to refurbishment, the catalyst and so on. And if you look at -- and lastly on your question, as it relates to HPS, if you look at the HPS UOP cycle, HPS typically trails UOP by two to four quarters, that's sort of mathematically how things work. So, we see some encouraging signs and those signs are going to get better and the business is going to get better for the next several quarters. So we're going to be patient, but we're very confident this environment is going to keep improving because as you know, you have to reinvest and although we're moving to a more non-carbon energy infrastructure, we're sort of going to need carbon for a while and so we've got two different growth factors. Number one is to sustain the current, but also to help those businesses transition to the future.
Jeff Sprague:
Maybe just as a brief follow on Darius, are you seeing any of those large kind of transportation fuel to petrochem projects kind of coming back on the board?
Darius Adamczyk:
We are seeing some activities, some discussions, because as you know that's exactly right, which is a greater switch from fuels to petrochemicals. So that's very much a part of our -- that kinds of discussions and “log” that we're having. So, frankly some of the projects are not being released yet. They're being delayed, but we're highly, highly confident those will happen.
Jeff Sprague:
Right. Thank you.
Operator:
Now we will hear from Peter Arment with Baird.
Peter Arment:
Hey, good morning Darius and Greg. A question more on a kind of regional basis, just particularly focused on Europe. We'd look at the first quarter flight activity in general and domestically. We were in the U.S. we were down 32%, but we were down 62% in Europe. I guess the question is really, how are you looking at Europe today just more broadly speaking, not just aerospace across your businesses, how you're seeing the recovery there? Thanks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, no I mean Europe probably was a bit slower than we anticipated in terms of flight hours. I mean, that's clear in Q1, and Europe, I mean I think there's a direct correlation towards vaccinations, right. And we kind of -- as we look at Europe, they're probably let's call it three to six months behind the U.S. in terms of vaccination rates. So we're going to kind of continue to see slow rate of recovery here as we move through the year. And we actually expect a fairly robust domestic flight market in the U.S. It probably won't be the case in Europe. We think that that's probably going to push back into the fall, but Europe -- sort of the leaders are UK, U.S., Israel, UAE. Those are -- those markets are recovering fairly quickly. I think Europe will be next. China is in a pretty good place, India is a bit of a trouble spot and Latin America is a bit of a trouble spot. So those will probably recover late this year. And then we see a very strong pickup, next even stronger pickup next year particularly on the international routes, but some of those will recover in the second half of this year. I anticipate, especially U.S., Middle East, Europe, UK routes to be fairly active even in the second half of this year.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate it. Thanks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Gautum Khanna with Cowen has the next question.
Gautum Khanna:
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys. I was wondering if you could elaborate on -- yeah, if you could elaborate on the commercial aerospace aftermarket, you mentioned sequentially it was down. Maybe if you could tease out how much Aero, large commercial ATR was down? And then what are you -- you mentioned that we will be up in Q2, what are you seeing from a booking standpoint, what kind of indications are you getting for magnitude of the improvement in Q2? And maybe your thoughts beyond that?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, it seems like the flight hours from Q1 to Q2 want to be up in call 20% range. Whether we have a little bit of a lag to that or not remains to be seen. But, as you highlighted and we talked about the Q4 to Q1 decrement is the lack of Thanksgiving, Christmas, the January, the December and January infection acceleration. So, as those things start coming down, domestic travel we expect will be the main beneficiary, and you see that from all the airlines who have reported Southwest, which is mostly domestic leisure travel is doing fantastic. And those who are reliant more on the business travel are going to suffer. So, you're going to see that domestic and international and business travel bifurcation. Exactly how that's going to play out is really kind of remains to be seen. And even as was mentioned earlier, with places like Europe, domestic travel in intra Europe has been depressed a little bit given the fact that they've had some additional lockdowns in some of the countries with the outbreaks there. So it really is -- it's really a country by country, region by region impact and so, putting a precise finger on that is going to be a little bit elusive.
Gautum Khanna:
Thank you.
Operator:
And with Citigroup we have Andy Kaplowitz for the next question.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey, good morning.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Darius you had talked about accelerating cash deployment in Q1 with a 3 billion that you allocated to high return opportunities including Sparta, but could you update us on the M&A pipeline you're seeing, obviously we've talked about valuations not being cheap out there but do you think you can continue to ratchet up M&A over the next few quarters? And what do you see?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, no, I mean the pipeline continues to be good, you're right. The valuations are not exactly low. But, we're going to be opportunistic and we're going to look for kind of, I would call needles in the haystack, and finding things that work for us, that make sense for us if we think they exist. And, sometimes you got to -- you have to go in places where maybe everybody else isn't running to because obviously those things have a very, very expensive price tags. And we have some ideas that I think could be pretty interesting for a portfolio. So we -- it's a very robust pipeline and we're always working on a couple things that hopefully will land and anticipate we're going to be doing more deals in 2021. And we're also looking at other levers of capital deployment as well.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Thanks guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Now we will hear from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Good morning, guys. So just getting back into the Pool Pump, just kidding. I want to go back to the comments about the supply chain constraints in 2Q and I don't know if you want to try and quantify it, but if you look at normal seasonality, the 1Q to 2Q step up Greg you talked about, it seems like it might be in the range of maybe $2 million or $3 million, is that sort of the right range and where are you seeing these constraints, is it mainly in semi or is it bottlenecks and do you think 2Q is sort of paying for this and again ?
Greg Lewis:
No, the constraints are significant and they are in semi. And by the way, just to be very clear, the constraints are reflected in our guide, okay. I just want to be very clear about that. But the constraints are significant and they are primarily in our SPS, and more specifically . Think about it million over 100 million plus kind of a number. Because so -- so it's not small, it's actually significant. We do think it will abate over the year. But Q2 is challenged because frankly, the guide could have been even higher. And we are working and we've really projected an outlook for the rest of the year. And we're looking for alternative source or actually Torsten Pilz this year is our supply chain officer. So, I don’t know if Torsten if you want to provide.
Torsten Pilz:
Yeah, I think we have two areas, semiconductors is one and resins is the other one. We believe that the resin impact will subside by the end of Q2, but the semiconductor impact will continue throughout the year.
Nigel Coe:
.
Darius Adamczyk:
Nigel, you're breaking up, we couldn't hear your question.
Nigel Coe:
.
Darius Adamczyk:
I think -- I don't know what you said -- is it lost sales. We think it's a push because obviously a lot of these suppliers are not unique. It's obviously being impacted. So it's not as if the demand is going away. So we think that this is probably a push to the second half of the year but we'll see. It's -- we've -- that business has been a really, really nice success story for us. And if we go back a couple of years, maybe it wasn't such a success story. It had a terrific year last year and it just further accelerated this year. And absolutely growing very, very quickly. So, it is still going to have a good quarter in Q2, but it could have been a phenomenal blowout quarter in Q2.
Nigel Coe:
Great, thank you very much.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Andrew Obin with Bank of America will have the next question.
Andrew Obin:
Hi, yes, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Yeah, I figured maybe Julian was messing with Nigel's line to keep him from asking too many questions. But who knows? It's a competitive business. Just question on aero, in a very sort of twisted way, we're getting a lot of questions to the fact that your margin in aero is already so high at the bottom of the cycle. And I was just wondering if we could take a longer term view and if you could talk about sort of longer-term levers to keep margin expansion going in this business, both in terms of specific end market recovery, but also operating initiatives?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, well I think Q1 was a bit telling. And although we were very transparent about a $30 million one timer, even if you exclude that element, I mean, the margins were still in the upper 20s. So I think we demonstrated the credibility of the say, dude, that we believe this business can be in the upper 20s. I mean, this is a case in point and take out the 30 and we're still in the upper 20s. So I think that's really important. Yeah, I mean, this may be isn't the high point in sort of investment profile of aero, but I can tell you and as Greg pointed out, we are investing in aero today on some of the major platforms and products, so I wouldn't say it's an all time low, and our R&D dollars are going up from 2020 to 2021. And we still expect extraordinarily attractive margins for that business. So, I think that it's -- we're investing, it's a great business, and better things are yet to come, which I think maybe gets misunderstood, which is a lot of that ATR aftermarket is not kicking in yet. I think the BGA is going to get better. I mean, so we have some brighter things on the future and even at this kind of business levels, we can print something in the upper 20s. So I just think that, hopefully, people start believing that this is a very good business, which is going to get even better for the future. Greg?
Greg Lewis:
Yeah, I would just, maybe just augment that. So as you said, we printed 29%, you take the 30 million out, it's still 28, high 27s. Our long term target that we highlighted was 27. So again, we're there on that. But we're going to continue to invest in so I think this business has done a very good job. And it was obviously, that in PMT were the most impacted by the pandemic. They did a terrific job on their cost management and realigned their cost structure to the size of the business and that's coming through. But, to Darius’s point, we're going to make sure that we continue to invest and grow it, we're not going to over earn in print margins that are let's say unhealthy for the long-term viability of the business.
Mark Bendza:
Jake, let’s take one more question, please.
Operator:
And that question will come from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hey, good morning guys. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning. I'll have to tell Andrew, it was me messing with Nigel’s line so just to clear it up. I guess sticking with aero, you mentioned commercial OE was up sequentially, was up double digits, I think you said was that a surprise, what platforms drove that? And related to that, what are you expecting on commercial OE build rates as we progress throughout the year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, so it was definitely up sequentially as highlighted, not really unexpected. We're starting to see some of the build rates recover. It's going to be slow from here. I would say the level we're at right now is going to be kind of a slow ramp from this point. So it's not like we see anything changing dramatically to the upside here imminently. So but not really unexpected for what we've seen. You see what's happening with the mass coming back into service and so on. So we feel like we're sized properly for that ramp as we head into the second quarter in the back half of the year. On BGA certainly that aftermarket stream, it's just going to grow at a faster pace than the ATR. I mean, people are shifting, this is actually a question for the ATR business, people are shifting from commercial travel to business jet travel. That's happening and so there may be some element of commercial first class travel that actually from a business perspective doesn't fully come back. So, we do feel bullish about what we're seeing in the BGA space particularly. But as I said earlier, there's so many variables you know as well as we do, there are so many variables that go onto this between passenger behavior, airline behavior. That's a little bit as to why we are going to take this one quarter at a time.
Greg Lewis:
And just to maybe add to that is, yeah, I think what we have looking forward is the OE rates slowly increasing. And I think that that's -- we have a fairly high degree of confidence in there, throughout this year, particularly second half versus first half. And then increasing even more in 2022. So that's sort of the math. I mean, I think we also forget that, as recently as three months ago, I mean, some of the infection rates in the U.S. were very, very high, and we're in a dramatically different place. So, the overall January and then part of February were fairly difficult. But we see the world slowly coming out of this. And, there's going to be a direct correlation to aviation. And we think, this is going to be manifested in the second half this year than 2022 and 2023. And, we're set up for some very, very nice quarters and years ahead of us, which are going to be slowly ramping up. So we continue to be very bullish on aviation, we're investing in the business but at the same time, 2020 was a good opportunity for us to really rationalize some cost structure and I think we can lever up nicely as that business starts coming back.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
I'm proud of everyone at Honeywell whose consistent hard work and unwavering commitment enabled us to outperform in this challenging environment. Thank you to our shareholders for your ongoing support. We are well positioned for the recovery with a strong start to the year and I look forward to our opportunities to come during the balance of 2021 and beyond. Thank you all for listening and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference for today. We do thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Honeywell's Fourth Quarter Earnings Release and 2021 Outlook. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Bendza, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Mark Bendza:
Darius Adamcyk:
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on slide two. We finished a challenging year of a very strong quarter, driving sequential improvements from the third quarter in sales, segment margin, adjusted earnings per share and robust free cash flow. In the fourth quarter, we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.07, flat year-over-year and $0.05 above the high end of our guidance range. This result was up 33% sequentially from adjusted EPS of $1.56 in the third quarter. Organic sales were down 7% year-over-year, four percentage points better than the high end of our guidance range and seven percentage point sequential improvement from the 14% organic sales decline in the third quarter. We drove double-digit year-over-year organic sales growth in Defense and Space, fluorine products and recurring connected software sales, as well as 27% organic growth in Safety and Productivity Solutions, an outstanding result. Our cost plans delivered our full year commitment of $1.5 billion in savings and helped us protect margins, limiting our decremental margin in the quarter to only 26%, an improvement from Q3, 29% decremental margin. Segment margin contracted 30 basis points year-over-year, a significant improvement from the 130 basis point contraction in the third quarter, driven by margin expansion in Aerospace, Honeywell Building Technologies and Safety and Productivity Solution.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Darius. And good morning, everyone. We showed a slide similar to this one during our December Investor webcast. And I want to highlight it again here today, because I think it nicely summarizes our ability to manage through tough times. Our execution through this year's downturn clearly demonstrates our ability to move quickly and decisively to reduce fixed costs, to protect margins, to ensure liquidity, invest in growth and position ourselves for recovery, while at the same time, we maintained focus on our pre-transformation initiatives, Honeywell Connected Enterprise, Honeywell Digital and the integrated supply chain.
Darius Adamcyk:
Thank you, Greg. Before we wrap up, I'd like to take a minute on slide 13 to discuss one of the key elements of our overall ESG story. Last quarter we discussed Honeywell's commitment to shape a safer and more sustainable future. This time, I'd like to focus on another important topic, corporate social responsibility. Honeywell is committed to corporate social responsibility and community involvement, which we demonstrate through unique global programs to look to improve lives and inspire change in the communities around the world. Beyond these programs, we acted quickly throughout the course of the pandemic to address the needs of our employees, communities and customers. A few of our more recent actions are shown on this slide. Most recently, we announced our participation of unique public-private partnership backed by North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper to help support the goal with 1 million COVID-19 vaccinations by July 4, 2021. We have partnered with Atrium Health, Tepper Sports & Entertainment, the Charlotte Motor Speedway, the State of North Carolina to administer the vaccine, manage complex logistics and to provide operational support for mass vaccination events. We're very proud of - to be part of this effort to prevent further spread of the virus by helping frontline workers and other members of our communities to get vaccinated. Another recent example of Honeywell's contribution to our communities is the important mask delivery milestone we achieved in December, where we delivered more than 225 million face masks to help protect workers in their response to COVID-19. We delivered N95 respirators and surgical face masks to multiple locations in the US for healthcare systems, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the US Department of Health and Human Services. In addition, we shipped millions of masks to both state and local governments. We are proud of these contributions and our role in providing much needed PPE to workers around the country, responding to the pandemic. Finally, we are also committed to recognizing and respond to the needs of our employees. We recently recognized the dedication and strength of our own frontline Integrated Supply Chain production teams, who have been instrumental in keeping our manufacturing sites running safely, enabling us to meet critical customer needs during these unprecedented times. To show our appreciation, we announced a special $500 Recognition Award for each of our frontline production and production support employees. We continue to be inspired by the members of our Integrated Supply Chain team who have truly gone above and beyond to support our customers throughout this pandemic. Now, let's wrap on slide 14. There is no doubt that 2020 was a challenging year. However, we effectively managed through the downturn, the repercussions of the global pandemic by focusing on liquidity, cost management, strong operational execution and investment for the future. We drove sequential improvement from the third quarter in sales, segment margin, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow, creating good momentum into 2021. The past year was another proof point that the Honeywell value creation framework delivers outperformance even in the most challenging economic and market conditions. We continue to invest in organic and inorganic growth opportunities in the downturn to high reaching CapEx and M&A, positioning ourselves for the future and the recovery to come. These growth investments will help us solve challenging problems for our customers, address critical global sustainability issues and drive superior shareholder returns. I'm proud of Honeywell's rapid and effective response to the challenges of 2020. Our employees around the world work hard to quickly adapt and deliver through the crisis, including ramping up production of critical PPE, developing our portfolio of healthy solutions and delivering growth in multiple areas of the portfolio. We are well positioned for a recovery in the second half of 2021 and beyond, as demonstrated by our expectation to return to our key long-term growth commitments for 2021. With that Mark, let's move to Q&A.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you, Darius. Steven, give us a moment while we gather here for Q&A.
Operator:
Absolutely, sir.
Mark Bendza:
Okay, Darius and Greg are now available to answer your questions. We ask that you please be mindful of others in the queue by asking only one question. Steven, please open the line for Q&A. Thank you.
Operator:
The floor is now open for questions. We will now take our first question from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the details on the guidance. So your 1Q sales guide, I just wanted to dig into that. You've provided some good general detail on what you're expecting, but the midpoints have not set down very similar as what we saw in 4Q, despite much of your comps. So I'm just wondering were there any - anything unusual in 4Q, any budget flushes there some speculations, there is some pre-order activity from other companies, etc. So just wondering if you've seen some type of supply chain quotings and bringing order demand maybe causes the sales guide to be essentially flat - Q-over-Q with what you saw in 4Q?
Darius Adamcyk:
Yeah, I don't know that there was anything unusual in Q4. I mean, I think obviously we had to see a continued ramp up of our SPS business that will continue, but it does start flattening at some point. PMT basically came out about as we expected, as we know that UOP business particularly is lumpy and the mix of the catalyst ship can vary dramatically. I think if you look at overall, COVID is a big play in this, and I would say, especially if you compare the COVID situation early in Q4 versus where we are now, we're in a much worse place. I mean, that's obviously that has to weigh on that. And frankly we really thought about whether or not we should guide Q1 at all. I mean, I think that we're in a place that's the level of infection throughout the world is the highest it's ever been right now and there's a lot of uncertainty. But we thought we would give sort of our best effort and provide a little wider range than normal to give our investors some of our best really educated view of where we think we're going to end up. But there is a lot of - there is more uncertainties this quarter. Greg, I don't know if you want to add anything.
Greg Lewis:
I mean, even for all of us have been traveling is a question mark. If you read the Journal this morning, they talked about the airlines and concerns even in the US about whether there's going to be testing requirements put in place for domestic travel. We know that that's been put in place already on international travel. So yes, to Darius' point, I just think there are some things out there that are really kind of hard to predict. But as I said in my remarks, I mean, the down 10 to down five kind of brackets, the down seven we had in the fourth quarter. The down 10 is in case something gets worse, that we don't really - can see at this moment, but it could be better than that if things progress. So nothing - there's nothing strange. I mean, we always have a fourth quarter to 1Q decremental sequential sales. 4Q is always our strongest quarter, so nothing unusual in there.
Darius Adamcyk:
Yeah. And just to add to that, I think, actually predicting that sort of in line is probably not that unusual. And then Aerospace, which obviously is our biggest business, the things to consider there is, if you look at infection rates in fact, at least in the western world, you had holidays, the air miles flown could be actually down and we see that, we actually given some of the outbreaks that we saw earlier this quarter in China and Asia-Pac specifically is where we're seeing some pressure. So that's sort of the puts and takes of the quarter.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Darius Adamcyk:
Good morning, Steve.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
Wish I had time to read the Journal this morning. That's impressive you can read the Journal on earnings day, you must have it all wrapped up there. Just on the margin side. Pretty decent margin expansion guided for this year. Assuming you guys do better on sales would there be any reason as to why those margins would be weaker than you're guiding to? Or do you think that if you do a little better on sales, you can still kind of converted at this high level?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So Steve, I think what we tried to do is position ourselves this year for anything. So, I mean if we guided something we feel like is very much deliverable in that 30 to 70 range and if sales actually turn out to be better, I think two things can happen. One we can convert a bit of a higher rate, but two, we may invest more back in the business. We have some important things to get done in Aerospace from an R&D perspective. We are funding some of that already. If things get better than we think then we could let the line out a little bit further. So if you look at our conversion in the last three quarters of this guide, it's really converting like 37%, just the math the 37% conversion rate in Q2 through Q4 with this guide. So we think it's a pretty strong rate of conversion, as it stands right now and we're trying to give ourselves optionality to both deliver earnings, as well as make sure we've got some room for investments.
Steve Tusa:
Is that high 30 sustainable? Is that high 30 kind of a sustainable rate going forward?
Greg Lewis:
I think that remains to be seen. We're - again, we're very confident that now that we're this 30 to 70 this year gets us right back in the 30 to 50 long-term framework that we've been consistently able to deliver. So that's what I can say about that.
Darius Adamcyk:
Yeah, I mean I think couple of points. First of all, Steve, if you take a look at our conversion rate for 2021 versus that with deconversion the leverage ratio it's fair and it's - and we project that in Q2 to Q4. The wildcard in a lot of this is Aero aftermarket, right. I mean that is probably the single hardest number for us to call because it is directly correlated to vaccinations and the speed of those vaccinations and rollout. If that comes in better than we're projecting and obviously there is upside to the margin rates. If it doesn't, well, then probably going to be someplace in the mid to lower end. But I think it's really important to note something else Steve, which is, if you look at the upper end of our margin rate for 2021, I mean, we get back to 2019 and up, I mean, so basically, we're kind of taking a one-year break, initially there were discussions about when will it take three years or two years to get back to that, and we're kind of getting - hope on the EPS range and so on pretty much to 2019 and a course so it's sort of a one-year break. But it's usual, we're trying to be prudent in our planning this early on in the year with this many unknowns, with the vaccine at levels that growth has never seen. So we're trying to embed that into our guidance and obviously we're going to provide you more clarity as the year progresses.
Steve Tusa:
One more quick one. Will you guys pretty much track flight hours in Commercial Aerospace aftermarket or will there be kind of a lag like some have talked about?
Darius Adamcyk:
There is a little bit of a lag, but there'll be a correlation eventually. So, as you know, those numbers are kind of correlated. So, as we track the flight hours travel, yes there might be a bit of a lead lag. But the correlation is there.
Steve Tusa:
Thanks.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Darius Adamcyk:
Good morning.
Scott Davis:
I'll keep to one question, but hopefully you guys can answer it a little bit more broadly than perhaps what I'm asking directly, but can we talk about Intelligrated and just kind of how scalable it is. I mean your margins rising as you grow. I know the install isn't necessarily all that profitable, but are you actually seeing an improvement in margin structure perhaps because of the supply and demand imbalance maybe better pricing that's leading to better margins. I'll just leave it at that and if you can give me some color there, it would be great.
Darius Adamcyk:
Yeah, let me start on very much. I don't think we're expecting dramatic margin improvement in Intelligrated in 2021, and let me explain why? The reason is that we are just booking an incredible amount of greenfield project and you saw that it was another incredibly robust year in terms of bookings. We expect double-digit growth again. Particularly, what's really important is to look at the ratio of our aftermarket business to our projects business and as you can imagine that's not changing of anything probably the projects are growing that much faster than aftermarket. So obviously that was going to keep pressure on the margin. But we should view that has a good news thing, because as I explained this before, eventually when the growth slows down, the growth rate will be slower, but the margin rate will be higher. But we're still going to be very much in this greenfield expansion mode for the next few years, which means higher growth rates, lower margins, which over time is going to moderate to lower top line growth rates and higher margins. That's sort of how that business is going to grow. What's really encouraging here is, the amount of share that we're gaining in the marketplace. There is unquestionably this business is winning and winning big in the market.
Greg Lewis:
And I would just add, your question about scale. That's - we talked about some of our growth investments and some of them are here to scale this business. So we are making investments in capacity and scaling up as we go both here and in Europe to - because again that was also part of the plan as well broadening our reach beyond just the US. So that's a big focus for this team. The scale question is, is one of the biggest things that they have on their plate and we're making nice progress.
Scott Davis:
Good luck, guys. Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning. Sort of continuing with sort of Scott's angle. Another business you announced the deal with SAP on-the-building solutions and you didn't provide a lot of details, but since then I think Latch has published an extensive debt talking about very, very aggressive market growth targets. I was just wondering if, given that there is a competitor there with aggressive targets for market growth, if you could just talk about maybe in a little bit more detail about opportunities that you are seeing and sort of software on the building side as this business is evolving?
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, I mean, a couple of things. Number one, so we're seeing very strong double-digit growth in our connected buildings offering, SAP partnership is working. We're actually still innovating together, we're launching aggressively even more aggressively into the marketplace. This quarter, next quarter as we complete some of their joint innovation. Just to give you a perspective across all of our business units, this will give you a hint as to how well this business did. Honeywell Connected Buildings business won the Business Unit of The Year across all of Honeywell. So that will tell you a lot about its financial performance. So that business is growing as fast as any business we currently have, getting traction with SAP partnership, but we're also getting traction in the marketplace. Frankly it's a gap that's unfilled and we don't think that there is anything out there that is comprehensive in terms of our Connected Building solutions that we have, which really covers the full scope of energy management, occupant comfort safety, overall maintenance footprint. So it's really comprehensive just about anything and everything related we're building in. And that business is - think about high double-digit growth kind of numbers.
Andrew Obin:
Helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from John Inch with Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.
John Inch:
Thank you. Good morning, everybody.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning, John.
John Inch:
Good morning. Under what scenario would PMT sales be negative in terms of your range to the low end of your guide? And I'm just thinking out loud, you do have other build exposures in floorings which is going to be really good. I would think the UOP catalyst reload likely next year based on pent-up demand and then we've got commodity prices higher. I'm just wondering how that actually plays into your thinking for this segment, both in terms of sales and margins. And I think PMT decrementals were about 50% or over that in the fourth quarter. So, can you kind of, think about it and I'm claiming a bunch of stuff into my one question. So, there you go.
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, John.
Greg Lewis:
Maybe it's a good adaptation.
Darius Adamcyk:
The answer is defined. This is all about UOP, let's start with that, right. The advanced materials were pretty comfortable with the growth profile, HPS, was kind of over and up in what we're going to do, which is growth. UOP is a little bit of an unknown, right, because what we've seen can happen is that lot of the catalyst loads or re-loads get pushed out of projects, get pushed out. To give me some comfort is that our bookings in the backlog are higher entering 2021 versus what they were in 2020. So, I am cautiously optimistic, it's - we're going to see growth, but we've also seen some push outs of particularly catalyst loads and delaying in projects and if that happens, obviously we're going to have to see pressure from the UOP side. And frankly, the price of oil is at a reasonable number right now, it's not in the 30s or 40s, now it's in the 50s, which is quite receptive to investment. What worries me is that a lot of the big oil and gas majors who are our customers set their budgets just like we do in Q4 of 2020. So - and they've announced some pretty big cuts. So, what we don't know fully as are those, are there going to be adjustments made based on the economic conditions, based on adjustments to those budgets. There is a point, there is definitely a pent-up demand, because you can't under fund this marketplace for too long. So, whether that happens in the second half of this year or '22, that story is yet to be told. But what we don't know is we still have a lot of sort of bookings that we expect for the second half that we have visibility to but they need to land. And that's why we provided the guide, we did because we don't know whether or not they will land or they will get pushed out to '22. But I have zero doubt and I mean zero doubt because I was in this business in '15 and '16 that there will be a big reinvestment cycle because you can't start this market for so long and that's why it's sort of, we can debate when it will come, but there is no - undoubtedly it will happen.
Greg Lewis:
And if I could, just because you mentioned margins as well, I think the thing you have to keep in mind there is, is two. Number one, as Darius described, the catalyst obviously, pretty high margin and so that impacts our mix. And then the other thing is we are executing on a lot of the gas processing business that we had won back in 2019 and 2020 and a lot of that's in high growth regions. So, you can imagine there is a lower margin aspect of some of that business as well that we're actually executing here through 2020. So, that's been an impact to the PMT margins when you take away the catalyst business and that becomes a bigger share of the overall PMT - sorry, yes, PMT mix and UOP in particular.
John Inch:
Okay. Just to make sure I understand. If a reload does happen, that's possibly very significant upside to the guide, but for now, you're not assuming that? So, I'm assuming PMT is probably kind of on the UOP side, sort of flat for the year. Is that's a fair statement?
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes. That's right, because right now those jobs are not booked in the second half. We have visibility during the pipeline but until they book it's a little bit of an uncertainty. We expect them to, but could they get pushed out to '22, absolutely.
John Inch:
Got it. Thanks for the color. Appreciate it.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Josh Pokrzywinski. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Darius Adamcyk:
Hi, Josh. Good morning.
Unidentified Analyst:
Just looking at the broader Honeywell software offering, Connected and otherwise, I understand it probably varies by business, obviously, a lot of different end markets there, but can you talk a little bit about how adoption is fared and customer conversations are going? I would imagine with folks starting to pivot back to growth or investment as they expect COVID to get resolved that those should be accelerating but as you mentioned a few times Darius, there's awful lot of complexity and cases are actually worse. But how is that adoption going? And is that frontline moving higher as people are thinking about kind of post-COVID digital transformation?
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes. Well, I'll be honest. I wasn't - I think, we actually had a very reasonable year in 2020, despite some of the challenged markets we're in, but just to give you a couple rough numbers. If you think about our overall software growth, it's mid single-digit even in 2020 environment. And then for recurring growth because frankly, we're sacrificing some top line growth because we're really converting our entire Forge business, Forge software business is only sold as a SaaS offerings. That actually grew in the teens last year. So, that was a very good year and we actually - we expect an acceleration on both of those figures for 2021. But 2020 for me was a really good proof point that this business is a cyclical. And as we continue particularly to build that recurring revenue base, which is growing more than two x our served traditional software base, it's going to be a great tailwind for the future of Honeywell and the future of that software business. And with offerings like we just talked about in connected buildings and our cyber offerings, I'm quite confident that it's going to continue to grow at that kind of pace. So, the short story is we're seeing more traction and we are winning more accounts.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great, thanks.
Darius Adamcyk:
Sure.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe my question would be around the free cash flow outlook. So, the operating cash flow is guided to drop I think around $400 million at the midpoint, even though net earnings should be up probably high-single digits. So, just wanted to try and understand what's happening within that around sort of working capital. Is it the fact that you had that exceptional receivables tailwinds in '20 that has to reverse? Just trying to gauge how conservative or what assumptions you've got on that working cap side. Because I think that the CapEx is up, but only up maybe 10% or so?
Greg Lewis:
Sure, sure. So, as we discussed the 5.1 to 5.5, just to ground out the numbers, that's 15% to 16% of sales. So, pretty similar to what we just did at 16%, is 95% to 98% conversion. So approaching 100%, it's 113% to 115% conversion extension. So, just keep in mind relative to the base metrics are pretty healthy numbers. As it relates to working cap and what's happening there. Yes, I mean obviously, sales came down substantially this year and both with some transformation and effectiveness in our process, as well as harvesting receivables. We had a very big - we had a very big cash flow from AR this year. We started to see some of the inventory come down in 4Q, for the year, it was still a build. And so when we think about next year, that's the area that I expect us to make more progress is on inventory and start seeing some inventory reductions, again even in the face of sales growth. And so I think you're going to see, we're world-class on payables, we'll continue to make some steady progress as we do each year. We'll make some progress on our programs around transforming on our credit collections aspects. And so I would expect we'll make some more progress on past dues and DSO, but the big effort is really going to be focused around inventory in 2021.
Darius Adamcyk:
And I would sort of, I think, I would classify our cash conversion in 2020 as exceptional. I mean, 105% conversion and 120% if you exclude something very positive, which is the fact that we're one of the few companies that have substantial pension income. So, we might be going from exceptional to very good. Frankly, the receivables performance was outstanding. We're not sure that can be replicated, we're certainly going to try. But we're going to focus on some other elements. And I will also say we've done a nice job on advances on build too in terms of 2020. So, I thought that this performance on cash was exceptional, and if you really take a look at, especially if you adjust for pension or take a look at our cash generation as a percent of our revenue, you will find that we're in the top quartile of performance, and that's certainly...
Greg Lewis:
Yes. We used to live down in 11% to 12% of sales. And now we've been posting 17%, 16%, 16%. So, we feel pretty good about what we've done here.
Darius Adamcyk:
And I hopefully, by now it's sort of clear that this is not luck and it's not a one-time phenomenon, that this is actually repeatable of that.
Julian Mitchell:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamcyk:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Hey, good morning. Maybe a quick one on pension. Agreed the conversion numbers look great, especially if you adjust for that, but the fact that you're now so over-funded, is there a way except through an insurance company or something that actually kind of extract monetary value from the pension or when you speak of it is kind of a value driver, are you really kind of talking about, a, it's great that it's over-funded? And b, you can use pension income to basically offset restructuring or other kind of cost related actions you might be taking?
Greg Lewis:
Yeah, I mean, I guess I would say a few things. We were always looking at options around the future of the pension plan. So, that's something that we look at constantly. As far as value creation, I view it in two ways. Number one, it's a risk mitigator, I mean other companies are having to pile cash into their pension plan because they're unfunded, we don't. I can't remember the last time we put anything substantive into our pension fund, which obviously would take away from our ability to deploy capital into things that are going to drive growth. So, that's when I say, it's a value driver, particularly vis-à-vis others. It's a huge value driver and that case in particular. So, that's - and yes, it's a 113% funded. I feel great about where that is. Even if we were to have a bit of a market downdraft, we would still be very, very - in very good position in terms of that funding levels. So to me, it's - the team has done a terrific job of managing the pension and the annual returns around it for a very long time and it has absolutely been very good for us and for our balance sheet and our liquidity.
Darius Adamcyk:
Yeah, and Jeff, maybe couple other things to it. There's really only two ways you can sort of monetize. The one way is obviously, if there is no more people in the pension plan anymore, which frankly it's a couple of years from now, that's - the other way you could sell it to potentially insurance company, and so on. But there is a big premium on that, so financially that doesn't make a lot of sense to do that right now. But I think what our investors should really remember is that when they think about pension, particularly given the de-risking that we have and the amount of fixed instruments that we have, this should be completely worry free for them because even a huge adjustment in the stock market is not going put us in parallel. So, I just think that this is sort of a safe haven in terms of an area that frankly is a big question mark for a lot of companies out there. For us, it's a big positive and is going to stay that way for the foreseeable future.
Jeff Sprague:
Great. Thank you.
Mark Bendza:
Steven, let's take one last question, please.
Operator:
Yes, sir. We will take our final question from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for squeezing me in. So, I have a little bit of a longer-term question actually on the UOP business. How do you think about that business just in with the backdrop that you've got, EVs are obviously going to become a much bigger portion of the market going forward? There's going to be some biofuel conversion, so how are you thinking about that business kind of structurally more - longer term?
Darius Adamcyk:
Yeah, good question. Good morning. Two-fold, the first one is, the world, obviously, that the world of energy and how energy is generated is going to change over time. And the direction of that is clear. It's going to be renewables, energy is going to become much, much more prevalent part of the future. But it's also not going to be immediate. It's not going to happen in 2022 or '23 and it's going to be slow gradual progress. So, a lot of the things that UOP still does will become relevant, particularly a big part of that business being around gas, natural gas, which we know is the cleanest of the hydrocarbons. So, that's Phase one. So, I think that we got to continue to serve our customer base. And frankly, many of whom will be transforming in terms of how they provide energy to the world. The second part, as we've launched a new business within UOP, Sustainability Technology Solutions business, which is going to become a bigger and bigger and bigger part of the UOP portfolio. And it really has three primary growth levers. One is energy storage, which is economically feasible and viable and we're building and deploying our first prototype of that this year. So, it's not a dream. Two is, 360 degree plastics recyclability, which also we're going to be deploying some technology this year. And then last one, where we really are the pioneers, which is Ecofining, which is going to become a bigger, bigger part of that refining footprint. So, we've got three sort of, this is under one business umbrella and that's going to become our growth engine for the future. So, what I envision happening is potentially longer term, some of the more hydrocarbon-oriented offerings will slowly and I emphasize, very slowly decline, while our Sustainability Technology Solutions business will grow very, very quickly. That's - that sort of how you see that business evolving. That's where we - this is another place we're investing, put our dollars to work and we're excited about the future and the kind of solutions that we have. And as you know, we don't have better scientist anywhere in our company than in UOP when it comes to material science and I'm quite confident that some of these technology breakthroughs will work and will really enable a path to future energy footprint of the world.
Joe Ritchie:
That's helpful. Thanks, Darius.
Darius Adamcyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to our speakers for any additional closing remarks.
Darius Adamcyk:
Thank you. I want to thank our shareholders for their continued support of Honeywell throughout the macroeconomic challenges of 2020. I'm pleased with our execution throughout the year, proving that we can and will outperform in all economic conditions. We are well positioned for the recovery. I'm excited for the opportunities to come in 2021 and beyond. Thank you all for listening and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
Thank you, this does conclude today's conference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Honeywell’s third quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star, one on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star, two. Lastly, if you should require Operator assistance, please press star, zero. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mark Bendza, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you Steven. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s third quarter 2020 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamcyk, and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. Unless otherwise noted, the cost action plans described herein are not final and may be modified or even abandoned at any time. No final decision will be taken with respect to such plans without prior satisfaction of any applicable requirements with respect to informing, consulting or negotiating with employees or their representatives. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the third quarter of 2020, share our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2020, and share some preliminary thoughts on 2021 dynamics. As always, there will be time for your questions at the end. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamcyk.
Darius Adamcyk:
Thank you Mark and good morning everyone. Let’s begin on Slide 2. In the past few months, we’ve celebrated two significant milestones. First, we celebrated Honeywell’s 100th year anniversary as a publicly traded company. We are proud of our longevity and long legacy of innovation. Since 1920, we have navigated the Great Depression, World War II, numerous political changes, the Great Recession, and the emergence of disruptive technologies in every market we serve. The reason that Honeywell continues to thrive in all these years, plain and simple, has been our ability to adapt to an ever-changing role and to innovate. The long list of inventions from the last 100 years and our legacy innovation endures today. For example, we are transforming the way our customers do business through Honeywell Forge, our cloud-based operating model, and are helping the world cope and recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic with a new portfolio of healthy solutions. In addition, we recently announced a breakthrough in the early era of quantum computing, the introduction of the system model H1, our next generation quantum computer which offers a proven quantum value of 128, the highest measured in the industry. We also announced new users, including DHL and Merck, which demonstrates the wide range of quantum computing use cases. The second milestone we celebrated was our return to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The S&P Dow Jones indices announced in August, Honeywell was previously a Dow component from 1925 to 2008. Our return to the Dow 12 years later reflects years of consistent performance and our ongoing transformation to the world’s premier software industrial company. We are proud and honored to re-join the group of companies that comprise the Dow. Both of these milestones serve as timely reminders of our long legacy of innovation and performance. Throughout our over 100-year history, we have continuously risen to the occasion to meet challenges with inventive new technologies, and we are committed to continue our legacy of innovation to shape the future of the next century. Let’s turn to Slide 3 to review our third quarter results. I’m very proud of our third quarter performance. We drove sequential improvements from the second quarter in sales, segment margin, and adjusted earnings per share. Although the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact several of our businesses and end markets, we [indiscernible] from second quarter lows through our laser focus on demand generation, operational execution, cost management, and our COVID-related new solutions. We delivered adjusted EPS of $1.56 in the third quarter, down 25% year over year, a 15 point sequential improvement from adjusted EPS of $1.26 in the second quarter, which was down 40% year over year. Organic sales were down 14%, better than the more than 15% organic sales decline we expected in July a four point sequential improvement from the 18% organic sales decline in second quarter. Our cost plans delivered approximately $450 million of year-on-year benefit in the third quarter. These actions helped us protect margins, limiting our decremental margins in the third quarter to only 29%, an improvement from 33% in the second quarter. Segment margins contracted 130 basis points, also an improvement from the 280 basis point contraction in the second quarter, driven by another quarter of margin expansion in both Honeywell building technologies and safety and productivity solutions. We generated $758 million of free cash flow, down from $1.3 billion in the second quarter. As we discussed in July, we expected these cash flow dynamics which were the result of working capital reductions in the second quarter and higher repositioning cash outflows and capex growth investments in the third quarter. In terms of capital, we deployed approximately $1 billion of cash to dividends, growth capex investments, and share repurchases. Additionally, we announced our 11th consecutive dividend increase, underscoring our commitment to returning value to share owners even during the current economic downturn. Let’s turn to Slide 4 to discuss our recent corporate development activity. I’m very excited about our recent announcement of the recently completed two acquisitions and established key partnerships to further drive innovation, strengthen our portfolio, and invest in the future. First, we acquired Rocky Research, a technology leader specializing in thermal energy and power management solutions. This acquisition will expand our brand existing aerospace portfolio and position us with an advanced capability in the fast growing power and thermal management market, which is critical to meet the growing need for aircraft electrification, unmanned and autonomous aerial vehicles, and related systems. We also acquired assets from privately held Ballard Unmanned Systems that extend our presence into the hydrogen fuel cell market for unmanned aerial systems and strengthens our urban air mobility product portfolio. Ballard Unmanned Systems designs and produces industry leading stored hydrogen proton exchange membrane fuel cell systems that power unmanned aerial systems, or UAS. In addition to the creation of the new business unit specifically dedicated to the UAS-UAA market earlier this year, this acquisition is yet another example of our commitment to invest in our UAS-UAA [indiscernible] initiative in the growing UAS market. I’m also pleased that we announced a new partnership between Honeywell and Microsoft that will reshape the industrial workplace. Honeywell Forge will integrate with Microsoft Dynamics’ field service to provide cloud-based predictive solutions to building owners and operators through closed loop maintenance workflows, strengthening business continuity and improving operational efficiency. Moving forward, we are exploring more ways to bring innovation to customers by integrating Honeywell Forge solutions with Microsoft Azure services, such as Azure Digital Twin or Azure Edge capabilities. We also announced a partnership with Vertiv, a global provider of critical digital infrastructure and continuity solutions to improve sustainability, resiliency, and operational performance for data center operations across the globe. We look forward to collaborating with Vertiv to offer integrated solutions that make it easier for data center operators to distill the mountains of data they pull from their equipment into actions that create more efficient and environmentally friendly operations. The first offering from our partnership will be an intelligent power management solution that features an energy resource management and supervisory control system in a single integrated platform. In total, we expect these investments and partnerships to drive over $1.2 billion of sales over the next five years. There’s a lot of great progress, and I’m pleased by the momentum in these areas. Now let me turn it over to Greg on Slide 5 to discuss our third quarter results in more detail, as well as to provide our views on the fourth quarter.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you Darius, and good morning everyone. As Darius highlighted, we’re very pleased with the third quarter. Our operational execution drove significant sequential improvements from Q2 and an improvement versus our expectations in July, particularly in revenue. While third quarter sales declined by 14% organically due to the effects of the pandemic, this was a four point improvement from the 18% organic sales decline in Q2 with sequential growth in all four segments. Importantly, we delivered strong double digit organic sales growth in our defense and space, warehouse automation, and PPE businesses, as well as in recurring software sales in HCE. Lower sales volumes and mix in aerospace and PMT drove 130 basis points of year-over-year segment margin contraction, but we once again expanded margins in HBT and SPS to drive 140 basis points of sequential margin expansion from second quarter. Our cost actions delivered approximately $450 million of year-on-year benefit in the quarter, which brought us to approximately $1.1 billion of savings year to date. We acted fast and early in the crisis and are now on track to deliver $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion of cost savings in 2020, up from our previous estimate of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion. Adjusted earnings per share was $1.56, down 25% year over year but up 24% sequentially from adjusted EPS of $1.26 in the second quarter. We reported $124 million of repositioning in the quarter to fund cost savings initiatives for 2020 and into 2021. That repositioning funding was higher than the third quarter of last year, driving a $0.04 headwind below the line, and interest income was lower than third quarter of last year, driving a $0.05 headwind below the line. As expected, our higher adjusted effective tax rate resulted in a $0.05 EPS headwind partially offset by $0.04 of EPS benefit due to lower share count from our share repurchase program. This quarter, EPS is adjusted to exclude the impact of the non-cash $350 million pre-tax and after-tax charge associated with the reduction in carrying value to present value of reimbursable receivables due from Garrett in relation to Garrett’s September 20, 2020 Chapter XI bankruptcy filing, which we previously announced with the filing of our Form 8-K. A bridge from adjusted earnings per share in the third quarter of ’19 to adjusted earnings per share in the third quarter of 2020 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. We generated $0.8 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, down year over year as we discussed in some detail on our Q2 earnings call. Lower net income, higher repositioning cash flows, and higher growth capex investments pressured cash, resulting in adjusted free cash conversion of 68%. We expect these repo and capex dynamics to continue into the fourth quarter as we continue to drive our savings programs and invest in growth and we’ll also have the impact of an additional payroll cycle, as we’ve shared previously. We do expect sequential improvement of free cash flow despite that, driven by working capital improvements mainly in inventory in the quarter. Turning to capital deployment, we paid out $636 million in dividends and, as Darius mentioned, announced our 11th consecutive dividend increase. We resumed opportunistic share purchases and invested $249 million in capital expenditures in the quarter, up approximately $60 million from the prior year. This included investments that we are making to produce N95 masks to support the COVID-19 relief efforts and to increase capacity in our warehouse automation business. Overall, we continued to execute commercially and operationally while investing for the future, driving sequential improvements in sales, segment margin and EPS, and setting ourselves up for the quarters to come. Now let’s turn to Slide 6 and we can talk about our individual segment results. Starting with aerospace, sales were down 25% on an organic basis as the ongoing reduction in flight hours and slowdown in original equipment build rates impacted commercial aftermarket and original equipment demand. Our air transport aftermarket business was down 55% organically compared to 56% in the second quarter. However, our business aviation aftermarket was down 28% organically in the third quarter, which was a significant improvement from the approximately 50% decline we saw in Q2. We continue to have strong demand for U.S. and international defense and space, driving double digit organic growth in that segment for the quarter. Segment margin contracted 240 basis points year over year, driven by lower commercial sales volume and business mix, partially offset by cost actions to improve productivity. That was a 240 basis point sequential improvement from Q2 levels for aerospace. In Honeywell building technologies, sales were down 8% organically, a significant improvement from the 17% organic decline in the second quarter. The third quarter decline was primarily driven by lower demand for building management systems, security and electrical products, and softness in building solutions due to delays in projects and energy businesses, some of which was a result of resource mobility constraints particularly in India and the Middle East. However, organic sales in all HBT businesses improved sequentially from the second quarter, creating positive momentum into Q4. Orders for the business solutions projects and energy businesses both grew double digits organically in the third quarter. Additionally, the building solutions service backlog was up double digits year over year, driven by larger orders in the Middle East and Asia. We are experiencing significant customer momentum with our portfolio of healthy building solutions. Our sales pipeline is over $600 million and we have secured orders around the world from Charlotte to Singapore. HBT segment margins expanded versus last year by 60 basis points in the quarter, driven by commercial excellence and cost actions to improve productivity, which offset the impact of lower sales volumes. In performance materials and technology, sales were down 16% on an organic basis, a slight improvement from down 17% in the second quarter. Process solutions sales were down 12% organically, a one point improvement from 13% organic decline in Q2, driven by delays in service and automation projects as customers conserve cash and volumes decline in smart energy and thermal solutions. In UOP, sales were down 36% organically, steeper than the 25% organic decline in Q2 driven by declines in gas processing investments, lower licensing and engineering, and fewer catalyst shipments due to weakness in the energy end markets. As expected, COVID-19 and oil price weakness continues to drive delayed bookings in HPS and UOP; however, we still have not seen significant project cancellations and our backlog is approximately flat to the prior year. Organic sales in advanced materials were down 4% in the third quarter, a 14 point improvement from an 18% decline in Q2 driven by lower volumes in fluorine products partially offset by growth in packaging and composites. Auto refrigerants returned to growth in the third quarter as the auto end markets experienced a rapid recovery. PMT segment margins contracted 220 basis points in the quarter, a 70 basis point sequential improvement as the impact of lower sales volumes and mix were partially offset by cost actions to improve productivity. Finally in safety and productivity solutions, sales were up 8% organically, a seven point improvement from the 1% organic growth we had in Q2. All SPS businesses, apart from gas sensing, grew in the quarter with double digit organic growth in calibrated and personal protective equipment leading the way and mid-single digit growth in productivity solutions and services, which was driven by strong demand for scanning and mobility products. Orders in SPS were up double digits for the fourth consecutive quarter, driven by personal protective equipment up approximately 150% year-over-year, continuing to position SPS well for the fourth quarter and into 2021. SPS backlog was up approximately 100% year-over-year to a new record high led by triple-digit growth in personal protective equipment and Intelligrated backlog. Despite some inefficiencies as we scale up capacity in the PPE space, SPS segment margins expanded 50 basis points in the quarter, driven by productivity actions and commercial excellence. As our new capacity comes up to [indiscernible], we expect favorable contributions to SPS segment margin. Overall, we finished the third quarter with sequential improvements from the second quarter and all businesses making progress. We grew double digits in several businesses, including defense, Intelligrated, and PPE, and due to prudent cost management and commercial excellence, we were able to limit our decremental margins to 29% overall, a four point improvement versus 3Q, and expanded margins in two of our four segments. Now let’s turn to Page 7 and discuss our outlook for Q4. Throughout the pandemic, we have remained committed to providing shareholders with a quarterly outlook that’s commensurate with our level of visibility and the environment we’re in. We believe we have enough at this stage in the fourth quarter of 2020 to reinstate full financial guidance for the quarter; however, this guidance is predicated on having no material supply chain or end market disruptions through the end of the year. We will independently reassess the macro environment in January to determine the appropriate format of our 2021 financial outlook based on conditions at that time. As we proceed to the fourth quarter, we’re actively monitoring the situation as many factors remain unpredictable, including COVID-19 infection rates, which we are seeing increases globally, particularly in the last two weeks. As of now, we expect organic growth in the fourth quarter in a range of down 11% to down 14%, driven by continued headwinds in commercial aerospace and UOP, partially offset by ongoing strength in defense, warehouse automation, and PPE and gradual recovery in the remaining portion of the portfolio. We expect segment margin in the range of down 10 to down 30 basis points, resulting in segment margins in the range of 21.1% to 21.3% in the fourth quarter, which would be another 100-plus BP sequential improvement as we gain leverage off our reduced cost base and drive commercial productivity. The net below the line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be between negative $50 million and positive $10 million in the fourth quarter, which includes capacity for an additional $50 million to $100 million of repositioning to drive productivity into 2021. We expect the effective tax rate to be approximately 19% in the fourth quarter and average share count to be approximately 710 million shares. As a result, we expect EPS between $1.97 and $2.02, down 2% to 4% year over year adjusted. Now let me provide a little color on the top line. In aerospace, we expect ongoing growth in defense and space, supported by stable government defense budgets and continued sequential improvement in business aviation aftermarket sales as flight hours improve. However, global flight hours will remain far below pre-COVID levels and we don’t expect air transport flight hours to improve materially, impacting our air transport aftermarket sales. Our commercial and [indiscernible] equipment business will continue to be impacted by lower air transport, OEM build rates, and lower business jet demand due to the economic slowdown. In building technologies, we expect sequential sales growth driven by improvements in fire, security, and building management systems. We expect access to customer sites to improve in the fourth quarter, driving sequential improvement in long cycle building solutions projects and orders. Our healthy building pipeline, which is currently over $600 million, is maturing nicely and we expect to continue generating pipeline and orders in the fourth quarter. In PMT, we expect ongoing challenges in UOP and process solutions as customer capex and opex reductions and lower production and refining volumes continue. However, we expect sequential sales growth in the products businesses in process solutions and advanced materials as these end markets, including automotive, continue to strengthen. Finally in SPS, we expect another quarter of double digit growth in Intelligrated and personal protective equipment. We continue to see record level demand for respiratory masks and other PPE. Our personal protective equipment and Intelligrated backlogs remain up triple digits year over year and our total SPS backlog is at a new all-time high, giving us confidence in the remainder of 2020 and into ’21 for the business. While macro conditions continue to put pressure on other SPS businesses, including sensing and IOT and gas sensing, we expect to see sequential improvement in the fourth quarter. Given these fourth quarter dynamics, for the full year we expect organic growth in the range of down 12% to down 13% and segment margins in the range of down 60 to 70 basis points, resulting in segment margin in the range of 20.4% to 24.5% for the year. The adjusted net below the line impact is expected to be between negative $185 million and $125 million for the full year. We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 21% and the average share count to be approximately 711 million shares. As a result, full year adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $7 and $7.05, down 14% year-on-year. Now let’s move to Slide 8 and we can talk about some of our preliminary thoughts we look into 2021. 2020 has clearly been a challenging year and it continues to be very dynamic, as we all see real time. Many uncertainties persist as we look into ’21, so let’s highlight how we’re thinking about them. Our current [indiscernible] is that a COVID-19 vaccine receives approval and becomes available sometime in early 2021, allowing the global economies to largely reopen as the year progresses. We’re also assuming fiscal stimulus remains supportive of the economy. We’re currently seeing a second wave of infections in several regions, including the U.S. and parts of Europe, so we need to watch how that situation develops. We’re assuming no significant shocks to the economy from post-election circumstances and a stable geopolitical environment, particularly as it relates to U.S.-China trade relations. With this in mind, let’s look at our key markets. In aerospace, as the pandemic subsides and the global economy continues to recover, we assume passengers will begin flying again, leading to modest improvement in global flight hours that begins in the first half and accelerates slightly into the second half of the year. This will directly lead to improvements in our commercial aerospace business as aftermarket demand grows. We also expect stability in defense budget spending supporting continued growth in our defense and space business, though likely at a reduced pace versus our 2020 growth rates. In HBT, we expect stability in non-res construction with a greater emphasis on retrofits driving demand for building products and services, which should support continued demand for our healthy building solutions. In PMT, we’re assuming improved macroeconomic conditions will drive moderate increases in oil prices in the second half of the year, leading to improved business conditions in refining, petrochemical and process automation in UOP and process solutions as the year progresses. SPS will be a robust growth segment from the strength in warehouse automation and personal protective equipment as we execute delivery of our robust backlog. We expect segment margins here to balance with the challenge of higher mix in Intelligrated growth and the efficiency gains as our PPE operations scale more efficiently. From a total Honeywell perspective, we expect organic growth driven by year-over-year growth in all four segments, as well as double digit connected software growth in HCE. We expect our streamlined fixed cost base following 2020 cost actions to support a resumption in year-over-year margin expansion while affording the opportunity to invest in growth, particularly in R&D and connected enterprise commercialization, and the continuation of our supply chain and Honeywell Digital transformations. We expect to take advantage of our significant balance sheet capacity for M&A and share repurchases as well. We expect to reduce share count by a minimum of 1% again in 2021 and will be resuming buybacks as early as 4Q to do so. Overall, we have some insight into our end markets and confidence in our continued operational execution which will give us the ability to resume financial performance consistent with our prior framework in 2021. We’ll provide more specific inputs once we close out the year. With that, I’d like to turn the call back over to Darius.
Darius Adamcyk:
Thank you Greg. Before we wrap up, I’d like to take a minute on Slide 9 to discuss an important topic
Mark Bendza:
Thank you Darius. Darius and Greg are now available to answer your questions. Steven, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator instructions] We will begin with our first question from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Good morning guys.
Darius Adamcyk:
Morning Scott.
Scott Davis:
Good presentation, and obviously really good decrementals, but I just wanted to focus a little bit on the future. One of the real tools you have, I think, Darius and Greg, is your balance sheet. Perhaps just update us a little bit on M&A, and then what’s your appetite to getting more aggressive in purchases here, share purchases, just given a disconnect between your stock price and perhaps the upside reality?
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, I think in short, I think the story isn’t any different. We were very pleased that we were able to complete a couple of recent acquisitions. Although they’re not enormous, they are meaningful, and as you can see, the impact in the longer term for our business is actually quite significant - it’s a billion dollars-plus, and I think [indiscernible] to put these acquisition in place that although may initially appear small, they’re really building for the future, and these two are very much in that category. I would also tell you that our pipeline is very robust at the moment, probably in better shape than a long time. The M&A environment is getting better. There’s some real practical challenges to doing M&A, especially for international M&A. To conduct due diligence is quite a challenge with the quarantines in place and travel, and as you can imagine, much of the due diligence team comes from corporate so they’re not necessarily local, so that’s creating some challenges. But we’re working through that and we’re looking at some things that are domestic as well as international, so I think we’re going to continue to do that. As you’ve heard through our presentation today, we’re recommitting to a 1% share count reduction at least for the upcoming year, so it’s sort of--you know, we’re getting back to business, and the business is improving. We drove nice, I think, sequential progress from Q2, we’re going to drive again strong progress into Q4. Our decrementals are now going to get down into the low 20s - I think that that’s a fairly good performance, given the cards we’ve been dealt, and I think we’re going to do what we always do, which is deliver for today but also deliver for the future. I think those two acquisitions we made earlier this month are indicative of that.
Scott Davis:
Okay, that’s helpful. Then quantum is something that you guys have been talking about for the last year, and this stuff’s a little over my head, but how do you get paid for that? What do you envision the pricing model--you know, is there any way to identify a TAM around that or an opportunity that we can start to think about?
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, I think the business model pricing value models are still evolving, as you can imagine. It can vary anything from do we cover some part of the value that you create by solving the problem, which frankly is the model we would prefer, although it’s a little more challenging to implement, but to leasing time and those kind of structures. You know, early on we’re going to experiment, we’re going to try. I think the thing that’s exciting about our quantum effort is the people. The first thing is, as you saw yesterday, we’re making very strong progress in terms of technology, and we believe we have the world’s most advanced quantum computer. The second part, and I think this is maybe even more important, we’re gaining more and more customers, because when people are willing to pay for these services, so you can sort of make all sorts of claims but if you can’t secure customers and revenue, which we’re now starting to do, I think that’s a pretty good testament of saying that we have something real and differentiated, and continue to be in momentum on the commercial side.
Scott Davis:
Okay, good luck guys. Thank you. I’ll pass it on.
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, thanks Scott.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Steve Tusa with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey guys, good morning.
Darius Adamcyk:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
I think looking at the sub-segment data, that your aftermarket, aerospace commercial aftermarket was up 18%, something like that sequentially. Can you just maybe confirm that, and then also just talk about how you may be leveraged to flight hours? You seem to be kind of bouncing off the bottom sooner than some of these other guys, kind of leading off the bottom, if you will.
Greg Lewis:
Well, I think Steve, we’re down in the ACR aftermarket by, again, mid 50s, 55% I think, which is similar to what I thought I heard from some of the peer groups earlier this week, and again consistent with Q2 where we were down 56%, so yes, nominally it’s up a little bit, as you mentioned, but kind of on a year-on-year basis it’s pretty consistent with what we saw in Q2. Obviously the upside, the BGA was nice because that went from down 50 to only down 28, so we saw some nice sequential improvement on the BGA space.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, I mean, I think whether they’re coming from business jets or aircraft, I think revenues still matter, but it was up. Your total commercial aftermarket was up 18% or something like that, so [indiscernible].
Greg Lewis:
Yes, that’s true. [Indiscernible].
Steve Tusa:
Okay, when it comes to the commercial aftermarket, the large stuff, how tethered is that to flight hours versus perhaps stuff that’s a little more inventory and durable goods type of related stuff?
Greg Lewis:
So far, we haven’t seen any divergence between our MSP growth, which is that’s the power by the hour, that’s directly tied, and more of our shop business, spares, etc. Those right now are moving in very similar trajectories as far as year-on-year growth, so they have not diverged in any meaningful way so far.
Steve Tusa:
Got it, so you guys should kind of lead out of this if bus jets continue to trend, and you’re kind of tracking flight hours in your large commercial aftermarket stuff relative to peers?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, and as we’ve talked about, really the growth in flight hours is obviously tied very closely to confidence, which waxes and wanes almost on a month by month basis, based on the circumstances on the ground, so--but yes, at this moment, we expect it to move pretty closely to the movement in flight hours, but that’s a little bit of [indiscernible] where it’s hard to really predict where that’s going to go at the moment.
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, and just to maybe add, Steve, we’re expecting very, very modest improvement in Q4 and then continued improvement on a sequential basis, but that does presume some medical solution starting to get rolled out early in 2021, which frankly I don’t think is completely unrealistic based on what I’ve been reading. I think it gives our aerospace business actually a really nice long runway for the next two to three years as things ramp up, so given the adjusted cost base, I think this is actually a pretty positive thing. I do want to note one thing about the costs, because we’ve been going through something called Honeywell digital automation and so on. This is not just a stupid rip out of cost just to reduce it. Much of what we’ve done is we just accelerated some of our initiatives that we were going to do anyway, so I think that some of this is sustained. Now granted, it’s going to be offset somewhat by investments, but I think it’s important to note that this is a bit of an acceleration of some of the initiatives that we were doing anyway.
Steve Tusa:
Got it, and then just one last quick one on HBT. Watching a bit of those tech forum presentations over the last couple weeks, it seems like there’s a lot of activity that building managers are trying to figure out how to approach ESG, and obviously IAQ for COVID. You guys seem to be kind of at the center of that. Obviously some of the HVAC guys are making a bigger deal out of it, and it wouldn’t necessarily translate today into revenues. How big is the--you know, is the quotation activity there, can you quantify in a way what maybe the front log of discussions are around customers coming to you? Are the phones lighting up as people are asking you about how to manage all this? I’m just curious as to if activity has picked up there at all.
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, think about an open pipeline in the half a billion dollar range in terms of some of our healthy building offerings. Bookings in the double digit million range, mid double digit with potential to approach triple - you know, $100 million plus hopefully by the end of the year. It’s accelerating. It’s something that everybody needs. Most, at least in the U.S. and some other parts of the world, people are not back working in their workplace yet, but when they do come back, they do want to come back to a healthier environment. I think we’re kind of hitting the spot there and the time to implement those solutions is now, not after people come back. So we’re seeing good activity, and we’re very encouraged by the order progress.
Steve Tusa:
About $500 million, did you say?
Darius Adamcyk:
Pipeline - pipeline, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Wow, okay. Great, thanks. Appreciate it.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes, thanks. Good morning guys. I just wanted to focus first a little bit on free cash. Totally understand that you guys have made the commentary about 2Q being the high point of the year, but I guess I was surprised that inventory was actually up a little bit year-on-year, so is there opportunity to improve inventory as you move into 4Q and into 2021?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, that’s exactly the way it plays out and what we discussed, as we mentioned in July. We knew that we were going to get pressure from the [indiscernible] costs associated with all the repo that we’re doing - you saw that, it was almost $200 million year-over-year increase, and we talked about the capital, which again even in this environment, we continue to invest in capex particularly in PPE and Intelligrated. Then yes, we talked about inventory as really the thing we’ve got to make some moves on. We’ve got a long cycle business in aerospace which has a pretty sizeable tranche of inventory there. We’re working through that now and we expect the fourth quarter to start seeing that come down, so that is exactly the playbook that we’re running. As I mentioned in my comments, we do expect cash flow to get better sequentially from the third to the fourth quarter, but we also again will continue--we talked about it even in the very beginning of the year, we’re going to have an extra payroll cycle in December with the length of the year, which is, call it $150 million round about pressure, so yes, those are the dynamics. Then as we get into next year, we continue to--you know, working capital and cash is always a big focus for the company and we continue to make improvements in those areas, and Honeywell digital also is one of the aspects that will help us in that.
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, and Nicole, just to add a couple things, number one, Q3 was at or slightly even above where we expected, so there’s no surprise here given the cash hit on the restructuring and the incremental investment in growth capital, so that’s a key point. The second point is as we get into Q4, although we have some headwinds from this extra pay cycle, we do expect our conversion to be over 100%, kind of get that back on track, so--and we indicated that Q3 could be challenged because we knew we were facing these extra headwinds in terms of cash, for I think good reasons. I mean, one is investment in making the business more efficient, and the second investment is in growth capital, so really not a surprise at all to us where we ended up, cash, probably a little bit even up where we expected. Last comment on inventory is, as you can imagine, for a long cycle business like aerospace, as we kind of started tuning down our outlooks early in Q2, that takes a little bit of time to kind of get through the system, and we expect to see more benefits in terms of inventory reductions as we had into Q4 and beyond.
Nicole DeBlase:
Got it, thanks Greg and Darius. That’s really helpful color. Then for my second question, I just wanted to ask one more on M&A - clearly a very hot topic for you guys. As we‘ve moved through this pandemic and you’ve seen some changes in what’s going on by end markets and the outlook, have your M&A priorities changed at all with respect to the areas of the portfolio where you’d be interested in making deals? I guess maybe why I’m a little focused is does aerospace become a more attractive opportunity set, given what’s going on in that end market?
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, obviously on your last one, obviously some of the aerospace assets are probably at different value points than they have been in a while, so from that perspective it is appealing. Have our priorities dramatically changed? I would say it’s probably too early to tell because I’m not really ready to declare as to what the post-COVID world will look like, and I think we need to see a little bit of what that will look like. But in terms of our levels of interest, they really vary across all our businesses, including HCE, and we envision a scenario where we’re going to augment and do bolt-ons for all five of our businesses. I wouldn’t say it’s changed dramatically, but obviously the aerospace segment is a bit more approachable from a valuation perspective.
Nicole DeBlase:
Thanks, I’ll pass it on.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Hey, good morning guys. Darius or Greg, achieving a 22% to 23% decremental margin in Q4 would be another significant improvement from Q3’s decrementals, so could you talk about where you expect to see the most improvement? It seems like it may be in aero given the improvement in Q3, and then for all of Honeywell, what does it tell you about the carryover of permanent cost reduction that you’ve talked about before, that 60% to 70% of the $1.55 billion into ’21, and does it give you confidence in terms of recording incrementals that could be above the decrementals you reported at the bottom of the cycle?
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, in terms of decrementals, I think we’re expecting those across the business because, as you can imagine, a lot of our cost actions occurred Q2 and during Q3, so you didn’t see the full benefit of those actions until the quarter ended, and that obviously rolls through into quarter four. We have a lot of confidence in those decrementals dropping into the low 20s from that 29 that you saw this year. I think we added quickly and decisively and made those adjustments on the cost base, which I think is really going to pay off, not just in 2020 but 2021 and 2022 as we really position the company well for the future, while still investing for the future, which I think is important because we’re going to need to do that in ’21. So I think that the story is that we’re very confident. Maybe one other thing that I’ll add before I turn it over to Greg here is we’re building up a lot of capacity in our SPS business. We brought on a lot of capacity in Q3, we’re bringing more on in Q4. Both expansion of capacity as well as really maximizing efficiency of that capacity, because as you can imagine when you first bring capacity on board, it is not an ideal efficiency the first or second month - that takes a little bit of time. But the good news here is that as we get into 2021, not only will we get substantial expansion in SPS capacity, we’re also going to be much more efficient in the processing backlog that we have, and we’re already starting to see that even in this month, but we’re still in the capacity expansion. I’ll turn it over to Greg for some more color.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, so Andy, the simple way--because I agree with Darius, I think we’re going to get that improvement across the board, but the simplest way to think about it is we’re going to get leverage in Q4 We’re keeping our fixed cost base fairly close to flat sequentially from the third to the fourth quarter. We will start to see some costs increase as travel returns to some degree and so on, but with a sequential improvement of revenue that we will see from the third to the fourth quarter, you’re going to see, I think, leverage across the portfolio. Then as it relates to your question on 2021, I think our position is still the same - that 1.5 to 1.6 cost reduction that we are delivering on, we think 60% to 70% of that persists into 2021, which means we’re going to see something in the neighborhood of, call it, half a billion of dollars of the headwind year-on-year into ’21 due to the temporary nature of some of those costs, so very much consistent with what we had laid out in the last two calls and we’re very confident in our execution around those plans and actions.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Very helpful. Then Darius, obviously it seems like you continue to face some pressure in PMT and specifically in UOP. I think you said in UOP, [indiscernible] year-over-year decline in Q3. Are you seeing any signs of improvement yet within UOP and HPS, and you did have good backlog at HPS coming into the downturn, I think you mentioned flattish backlog for this quarter. Are you seeing any signs of projects moving forward again within HPS, and what are customers telling you about the prospects for recovery in 2021?
Darius Adamcyk:
A couple points. First one is I think there’s a part of PMT that’s particularly challenged - our gas processing business because as you know, the number of rigs and so on, that that’s way down year over year, and gas processing is down year over year. The other thing to keep in mind I that as a lot of our customers, who are much of the oil and gas customers, as they announce their capex and opex cuts for the year, they’re not likely to reverse those in 2020, so we really don’t expect to see an uptick this year. We expect an uptick next year as some of those budgets get normalized and, as you know, you can’t not invest in your infrastructure for too long or you’re actually going to have a crisis the other way, where your demand is going to dramatically [indiscernible] supply, so we envision an incremental improvement and obviously there is an alignment to overall economic conditions here, so as the world returns back to a little bit more of the normal, we would also see that pick-up in PMT. The thing that I am very encouraged by is that we have not seen project cancellations. We’ve seen slide-outs and push-outs, but we have not seen cancellations. Frankly when I was running the PMT business in ’15 and ’16, we saw probably more cancellations back then than we are now, so I think that that’s very encouraging and I’m bullish on PMT for 2021 and beyond.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Appreciate it, guys.
Darius Adamcyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you, good morning everyone. Just two from me. First, I guess for Greg, just to clarify the comment about the headwind next year on return of costs, and I understand that’s consistent with what you said, but I think today for the first time, we are getting the comment, quote-unquote, strong incremental margins for 2021. I just want to clarify, those are strong incremental margins net of that headwind - is that the message?
Greg Lewis:
The message is that we’re going to return to margin expansion, and I would say that is including that incremental headwind. I think the way we’ve positioned ourselves from a fixed cost standpoint, Jeff, is we’re setting ourselves up for the ability to grow margins and invest back in the business next year, and I think that’s--you know, Darius highlighted earlier, we’re not going to try to have a blow-out ’21 and leave it all on the table. We’ve got some very important transformation initiatives that we want to make sure we’re continuing to invest in, and we’ve got some important investments to make in our breakthrough initiatives in quantum and HCE, etc., so we do expect to return to our margin expansion framework, even net of that, call it half a billion headwind.
Darius Adamcyk:
Yes, just to add to that, Jeff, and I’d just echo what Greg said, I think it’s exactly right, we will drive margin expansion next year. There’s no question about that. How much is still a little bit of a TBD, and that includes, by the way, the impact of those headwinds, so we have accounted for that. But we also have to invest in our future, and I think particularly some areas, R&D specifically, aero, HCE, Honeywell Digital, those are areas where we definitely want to invest in. [Indiscernible] planning cycle but what we’re going to try to do is offer a very compelling return for our investors while investing for the future - that’s always the balance we’re going to have, and we’re going to do both and we’re pretty confident it’s going to be a very compelling year for our investors, but also we’re going to invest for the future.
Jeff Sprague:
That makes sense. Maybe somewhat related, Darius, you mentioned, and I think Greg, obviously going through this difficult environment was a window to accelerate restructuring and some other things that maybe were on the shelf, that you would have done later. Given that, should we expect a more normal restructuring year, from a historical brute force type of restructuring relative to what we saw in 2020 here?
Darius Adamcyk:
Can you repeat that, because I didn’t quite get it. What kind of restructuring, Jeff?
Jeff Sprague:
The question is really just on restructuring and the cost base itself, kind of the normal flow of restructuring--
Darius Adamcyk:
Oh yes, I get it. Yes, I think we’re going to return to more normalized levels. Obviously we’ve pulled some things in that we were probably going to do later. We rationalized our cost structure because frankly we had to - I mean, that’s what we were facing early in Q2, and we did do that, so I think as we look in 2021 and 2022, we’re going to return to a little bit more of a normalized level. But Jeff, as you know, this never fully exits our playbook. In good times and bad, we always look for opportunity to be much more efficient, so yes, it’s not going to be at the same level as this year, but we still are executing our ISC transformation, we’re still executing on Honeywell Digital, that’s going to--
Greg Lewis:
[Indiscernible].
Darius Adamcyk:
--yes, so it’s all going to continue pay off in terms of productivity and efficiency, so hopefully that helps.
Jeff Sprague:
It does, thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from John Walsh with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
John Walsh:
Hi, good morning everyone. I guess just wanted to follow back to the margin question here in Q4 and just make sure I understood the underlying comments. If we look at where you’ve spent most of the restructuring dollars this year, it’s been in aerospace and PMT, and if we look at Q3, that’s where you had the largest deltas from a pick-up. Is that still where you would think to see a lot of the improvement in Q4, particularly in those two segments year on year?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, so John, absolutely. I think when you look at it, those are the ones where we spent the most repo. For obvious reasons, they’re the most challenged of the businesses in the portfolio, so yes, I would expect that that’s where you’re going to see some healthy improvements. But as I mentioned, we’re going to see it across the board.
John Walsh:
Got you, and then maybe just a finer point on thinking about cash next year. You sized that payroll. I don’t know if you’ve spoken about capex plans yet into ’21, but should we think of next year as maybe those net and it’s just net income growth and working capital blocking and tackling, or are there any other things to be aware of in the headwinds and the tailwinds column for next year, particularly thinking about capex?
Greg Lewis:
We’re still obviously in our planning stages for ’21. As you said, if you think about capex this year, we’re probably going to wind up spending round about what we thought we were going to in the early part of the year, before COVID even hit, because our reductions in some of the discretionary areas we backfilled with the growth capital that was important to us to go spend. As we head into next year, wouldn’t surprise if we spend capital at about the same rate, plus or minus a bit, but again that’s all subject to us completing our planning. But I wouldn’t expect us, as we sit here today, to see that as a materially different mover in the context of a $5 billion to $6 billion cash flow generator that we usually are. And as I mentioned, working capital, we’re always going to be driving our working capital progress and we would expect to continue to do that into ’21, so we’ll update you in90 days with more specifics around some of the finer points around it as we complete our planning and complete the year.
John Walsh:
Great, thanks for the additional color.
Mark Bendza:
Steve, let’s just take one last caller.
Operator:
Absolutely, sir. We will take our final question from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you, good morning everyone. I like that last slide on the sustainable focus and ESG. One of the points that occurred to me, the 50% of your new product introduction investments fit the ESG classification, and I was curious whether--is that 50% a target or is it an outcome, and what are the economics?
Darius Adamcyk:
No, no, that’s not a target, that’s where we are today. That is not aspirational, that’s currently where we are. I want to point something that’s really, really important, which is we talked a little bit about on our script is the formation of a whole new business unit, the sustainability business unit within PMT which really is going to help a lot of our customers really make the transition to sort of the new energy future. I think nobody is going to transition this in a month or a year or two, but what we’ve done and what we’re doing is really creating a whole new sustainability infrastructure in PMT, and really all our business units to create a business structure which is going to be much more sustainable, aligning with the needs of the plan and society in general, and I think it might be even the most needed in PMT where a lot of our customers are really looking at what the future of energy looks like. We want to be part of the solution to create that bridge.
Deane Dray:
Great. Just last question, and to the extent that you can comment on it, was hoping you’d put this whole Garrett situation in context This is such a small piece of your cash flow, it’s a small piece of the capitalization, but it does get some headlines, and I was hoping you might comment.
Darius Adamcyk:
Sure. I think your comment’s right - in terms of the overall value and so on in terms of Honeywell, it’s not that relevant. I think you probably saw some of it. Frankly, there is an offer out there which is on for Garrett. We have--we’re confident we’re going to secure a majority of that cash flow. There’s a superior offer on the table with a couple of the partners we have out there. We don’t believe there’s a lot of merit in the litigation that Garrett is trying to put forward, and we have a level of confidence of preserving those future cash flows and a lot of this will still kind of be in motion here for the next few months. But there’s a lot of confidence in what we’re doing there and we think we’re going to recover a majority of that receivable.
Deane Dray:
Appreciate that, thank you.
Darius Adamcyk:
Thank you Deane. We’re pleased with the improvements we achieved in the third quarter compared to the challenging second quarter. We are growing in areas not as impacted by the current pandemic and we’re gaining momentum in the new growth opportunities by providing innovative solution for customer needs. We remain focused on continuing to perform for our share owners, our customers, and our employees in any environment. We are well positioned for the recovery with a balanced portfolio, track record of execution, and a strong balance sheet. Thank you for listening and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
Thank you, this does conclude today’s teleconference. Please disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell’s Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mark Bendza, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you, Warren. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell’s second quarter 2020 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This call and webcast including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions and we ask that you interpret them in that light. Unless otherwise noted, the cost action plans described herein are not final and may be modified or even abandoned at any time. No final decision will be taken with respect to such plans without prior satisfaction of any applicable requirements with respect to informing, consulting or negotiating with employees or their representatives. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the second quarter of 2020 and share our views on the third quarter of 2020. As always we’ll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Let’s begin on slide two. The second quarter was one of the most challenging quarters Honeywell has ever faced. The widespread reprecussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and all price volatility sale impacted many of our businesses and end markets. There are a number of factors beyond our control in the current environment. We were laser focussed on the drivers of value that we can’t control. In the second quarter, we made numerous investments in newly emerging growth opportunities. We aggressively managed cost to protect margins and we generated very strong cash flow. We delivered adjusted EPS of $1.26 in the quarter on sales that were down 18% organically consistent with the greater than 15% organic sales decline we signalled in May. Our phase 1 cost plans delivered approximately $500 million of year-on-year benefits in the second quarter and we completed planning for a phase 2 plan. These actions help us protect margins, limiting our decremental margins in the quarter to only 33%. In fact, we are actually able to expand segment margin in two of our four segments. Despite the challenging macro-economic conditions, we generated $1.3 billion of pre-tax flow driven by cost actions and customer collections resulting in adjusted free cash flow conversion of 140%. We prudently deployed approximately $900 million of cash primarily to dividends and CapEx investments. We committed approximately $250 million of incremental growth, capital expenditures compared to our previous allocated budget for new projects to accelerate our investments in safety products, Intelligrated and other growth opportunities. These are high return investments expected to generate triple digit IRRs. Let’s turn to slide three to discuss the work we’ve done to pivot our business given the current environment and emerging customer needs. I'm proud of the quick mobilization by employees throughout the company to rapidly innovate and provide solutions for both urgent and long term customer needs. To address the urgent need for PPE, we are significantly growing our personal protective equipment business. We expanded facemask productions, and specifically our N95 and equivalent mass production in Arizona, Rhode Island, the United Kingdom, India, the UAE and China. In the U.K., we create a new manufacturing line capable of producing a significant amount of mask at our new house site in Scotland, which will assist the U.K. government's response to COVID-19 pandemic, as well as serve as the European -- serve the European region. In addition to our expansion of United States, India and China capacity we have added capacity in the UAE. We're partner of Strata manufacturing, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi state fund Mubadala Investment Company to produce N95 masks. Beyond masks and other PP&E we’re innovating to provide creative solutions for new areas of customer demand. We recently announced our partnership with SAP to create a joint cloud based solution to improve building performance, based on Honeywell Forge and the SAP Cloud Platform. Building owners often need to pull data from disparate sources that are not normalized, making it extremely difficult to determine the true efficiency and utilization of their portfolios. The Honeywell Forge and SAP Cloud for real estate solution will streamline and combine operational and business data enabling customers to benefit from building performance optimization, including reduced carbon footprint and lower energy cost as well as improved tenant experience. This will be especially useful as buildings come back online in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic crisis as building owners are expected to focus on key performance indicators tied to enhanced occupant safety, and reduced operating costs. We have also launched an integrated set of healthy building solutions to help building owners improve the health of their building environments, operate more cleanly and safely, comply with social distancing policies and help reassure occupants that it is safe to return to the workplace. We are partnering up with pharmaceutical and biotech customers in our Aclar Healthcare Packaging business to develop innovative packaging solutions for future COVID-19 therapies and vaccines. We have launched new bottles and vials called Aclar Edge that enable ultra-high moisture barrier without the limitations of glass. We've also launched a Honeywell ThermoRebellion temperature monitoring solution, which can be rapidly deployed at the entry of our factory, airport distribution center, stadium or other commercial buildings to quickly and efficiently identify whether personnel exhibit an elevated temperature using advanced infrared imaging technology and artificial intelligence algorithms. In aerospace, we are helping to provide a safer and healthier travel experience with ultraviolet cabin cleaning system. The Honeywell UV cabin system can treat an aircraft cabin in less than 10 minutes, for just a few dollars per flight for midsize to large airline fleets, significantly reducing certain viruses and bacteria on cabin surfaces. I am very proud of the part we are playing to keep people safe and healthy by providing new solutions for urgent customer needs. We remain committed to continuing Honeywell’s long legacy of innovation, and we are continuing to invest in our future in good times and bad. We also recently formed new business units dedicated to advancing our position in growing industries for sustainable energy and unmanned aerial systems. Our new sustainable technology solutions business in PMT will develop and commercialize new technologies that will help meet the growing demand for solutions that accelerate the path to a low carbon economy. This includes growth opportunities into plastic circular economy, energy storage, gas decarbonisation and renewable fuels. In aerospace, our new, unmanned aerial systems business has continued to introduce new, innovative products for this exciting market, and recently conducted in-flight testing of sensors that will guide urban air mobility vehicles to land without pilot intervention. These are challenging times for all, and we are rapidly addressing our end market and customer needs through innovation, and mobilization of resources across the organization. Finally, I'd like to make a few comments about our commitment to diversity, inclusion and equality. Let me be clear, we’ll never tolerate racism at Honeywell, fully embracing the principles of diversity, inclusion and equality and treating all employees with the utmost respect are requirements for working here. In addition, we are committed to the following actions. We will continue to evolve our community relations programs and partnerships with key external organizations to promote diversity, equality and opportunity for all. And we will intensify our focus on the recruiting, retention and development of women, veterans and minority groups. And we will continue to rigorously enforce our code of business conduct, which makes it explicit that there is zero tolerance specifically for racial discrimination. We recognize that these steps are starting point, not an end, and we are committed to continuing to make progress. Now, let me turn it over to Greg on slide four, to discuss our second quarter results in more detail, as well as to provide our views on the third quarter.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Darius and good morning everyone. As we highlighted in our May call, the second quarter presented significant challenges. However, we effectively managed with a strong operational execution that our stakeholders have come to expect of us. For the second quarter, sales declined by 18% organically as the effects of the pandemic spread across the globe. Substantially lower sales volumes in our most challenged end markets in Aerospace and PMT drove 280 basis points of segment margin contraction, while we delivered strong sales and orders growth in both our warehouse automation and PPE businesses. Our phase 1 cost actions delivered approximately $500 million of year-on-year benefit in the quarter, which brought us to approximately $700 million of savings in the first half. We will discuss that later on in the presentation. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1 26, down 40% year-over-year as we funded over $250 million of repositioning in the quarter to drive cost savings in 2020 and into 2021. As we previewed in May, repositioning was significantly higher than the second quarter of last year, driving a $0.19 headwind below the line. A higher adjusted effective tax rate resulted in a $0.06 EPS headwind compared to last year, partially offset by $0.04 of EPS benefit due to lower share count. This quarter EPS is adjusted to exclude the favorable resolution of a foreign tax matter related to our spin-off transactions in 2018. So on a GAAP basis, our second quarter earnings per share is $1 53. You will find a bridge of our EPS in the appendix of this presentation. We generated $1.3 billion of free cash flow driven by strong customer collections, despite a difficult operating environment and our adjusted free cash flow conversion was 140%, up 40 points year-over-year. In terms of capital deployment, we paid out $650 million in dividends. We also invested over $225 million in capital expenditures in the quarter, up $56 million from the prior year. Our CapEx in the second quarter included the first tranches of investments that we are making to produce and N95 masks to support the Coronavirus release efforts. Overall, this was a very challenging quarter, but we continue to execute, managing costs and our cash flow with the discipline and rigor you can expect from Honeywell. Now let's turn to slide five and we can discuss our segment results. Starting with Aerospace, sales were down 27% on an organic basis as the steep reduction in flight hours lowered commercial aftermarket demand, and a slowdown in original equipment build rates in addition to the 737 MAX impact in air transport, impacted commercial OE more broadly. Our air transport aftermarket business was down 56% organically and our business aviation aftermarket business was down 50% organically in the quarter. The declines in commercial aerospace were partially offset by continued demand for U.S. government programs including the F-35, F-15, and the Orion space program driving 7% organic growth in a defensible space business. For the quarter, the defensive space backlog finished up double digits, giving us confidence will continue to deliver growth in that business throughout the second half of the year. Aerospace segment margins contracted 510 basis points driven by lower commercial sales volume and business, mix partially offset by class actions to improve productivity. In Honeywell building technology, sales were down 17% organically, primarily driven by deferrals of product purchases and security, building management systems and fire and softness and building solutions due to delays in the projects and energy businesses, some of which is a result of site access constraints due to shutdowns, particularly in India and the Middle East. Organic sales improve sequentially as the quarter progressed for the short cycle products businesses. HPT segment margin expanded 50 basis points in the second quarter, driven by commercial excellence and cost actions to improve productivity, which offset the impact of lower sales volumes. In Performance Materials and Technologies, sales were down 17% on an organic basis. Process solution sales were down 13% organically, driven by volume declines in products, including thermal solutions, smart energy and field instruments. In UOP sales were down 25% organically, driven by declines in gas processing, lower licensing and lower catalyst shipments due to weakness in the oil and gas end market. As expected, we saw new orders declined significantly in the second half -- in the second quarter as COVID-19 and the oil price volatility led to lower bookings in HPS and UOP. However, we have not seen a significant project cancellations to date. Organic sales and advanced materials were down 18% driven by lower automotive refrigerant volumes due to automotive plant closures, offsetting double-digit growth and packaging, composites and electronic materials. Flooring product sales into the automotive end market improved sequentially by month throughout the quarter, as automotive plants began to reopen. PMT segment margins contracted 460 basis points in the second quarter, driven by the impact of lower sales volumes partially offset by class actions to improve productivity. Finally, in safety and productivity solutions, sales were up 1% organically driven by more than 20% growth in Intelligrated and over 100% growth in the respiratory personal protective equipment space, particularly partially offset by weakness in Sensing and IoT, portable gas sensing and productivity products. Orders in SPS were up approximately 90% in the second quarter, led by record high bookings of $1.2 billion in Intelligrated, up 300% year-over- year, and over $650 million of bookings in personal protective equipment, positioning SPS well for the second half of the year and into 2021. SPS segment margin expanded 150 basis points in the quarter, driven by productivity including cost actions net of inflation and commercial excellence. So overall, we finished the challenging quarter with significant top line impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, we grew in several businesses including defense, Intelligrated and PP&E and due to prudent cost management and commercial excellence, we were able to limit decremental margins at 33% overall, and expand margins in HBT and SPS. Now, let's turn to slide six to discuss our cost management actions in more detail. We previously announced our phase one cost reduction efforts which we rapidly started implementing in the first quarter. This included curtailment of discretionary expenses, cancellation of 2020 merit increases across the enterprise, reduced executive and board pay, reduced work schedules, and a first phase of targeted permanent census reductions. During the quarter, we completed preparation of a second phase of class actions to expand permanent census reductions, which we also began executing in June. The result is that we reduced fixed costs by approximately $700 million year-over-year in the first half, which is pushing us toward the high end of our original phase one target range of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion. The phase 2 actions to deliver approximately $200 million of 2020 benefit, so the combination of phase 1 and phase 2 is expected to reduce cost by $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion in 2020. Our aggressive deployment of repositioning funds $250 million in the quarter and $325 million in the first half is serving us well. I do expect our fixed costs to be pressured sequentially in the third quarter as the permanent reductions begin to replace the benefits of the more temporary actions. Now let's turn to slide seven and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity. We exited the first quarter in an incredibly strong position on the balance sheet, and we took additional actions during the quarter to further bolster our financial flexibility. In the second quarter we issued $3 billion in long term debt instruments with maturities in 2025, 2030 and 2050 replacing a portion of the term loan financing, which we reduced commensurately, from $6 billion to $3 billion. So as to access -- we fully drew down on the remaining term loan so as to access the liquidity of $6 billion that we had highlighted previously. As a result, we ended the quarter with $15.1 billion of cash and short term investments on the balance sheet, and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 1 to $15 billion of cash and short term investments compares to only $3.5 billion of commercial paper and $800 million of long term debt coming due within the next year. As you'll recall, we substantially completed our 2020 share repurchase commitment in the first quarter, and we were focused on liquidity preservation in the second quarter. We deployed $650 million to dividends and approximately $225 million to CapEx in the quarter. While being prudent on CapEx overall, we will continue to fund growth investments in the second half, and we expect full year CapEx to be approximately $900 million, including the additional growth capital Darius mentioned earlier. We are committed to holding share count approximately flat with the second quarter for the remainder of the year at a minimum. We are open to deploying capital to share repurchases and M&A investments in the second half of the year, if attractive opportunities become available. On the topic of M&A, we are pleased to welcome Emily McNeil to Honeywell this quarter as our new senior vice president corporate development and Global Head of M&A who will be responsible for maintaining and building our robust pipeline of acquisition opportunities that are strategically well positioned to accelerate Honeywell growth. We are very excited to have Emily on board. Now let's turn to slide eight to discuss our segment outlook for the quarter. The next few quarters will continue to be unpredictable and our visibility has limits under the current circumstances. Accordingly, we are continuing the suspension of full year guidance until the economic environment stabilizes. And we can once again give reliable and comprehensive forecasts. We believe it's important that we provide a level of precision that is commensurate with our ability to forecast in the current environment, and therefore we will provide the same set of inputs that we provided in May. We are closely watching several key drivers of uncertainty in the third quarter. First and foremost, the severity of increasing COVID infections and the potential for additional lockdowns is still very fluid and could have significant impacts on the macroeconomic environment. The support provided by the fiscal stimulus programs deployed in the second quarter by governments globally, will diminish in the third quarter, an additional stimulus is uncertain particularly in the U.S. which complicates the visibility through economic stability. The geopolitical environment and traceability also continues to be a wild card. From an end market perspective, the dynamics in the air travel industry including flight hours, retirements, and used serviceable materials, as well as oil price volatility and CapEx and OpEx budgets which affect our PMP business are not stable yet at this point. With that said, the impact on customer solvency and aging receivables remains a question mark as well and a potential future risk that we're monitoring. Together these drivers are difficult to predict and set the stage for challenging quarters ahead. So as best we see it, starting with aerospace, we expect global flight hours to remain far below pre COVID-19 levels, which will significantly impact our commercial aftermarket business. We do expect their transport flight hours to begin recovering from second quarter lows. Those sequential improvements in commercial aftermarket sales due to flight hour improvements may be offset by the impact of used serviceable materials, and rotation of fleets. Our commercial, original equipment business will continue to be impacted by lower air transport, OEM build rates and lower business jet demand due to the economic slowdown. We are anticipating that government defense budgets will remain intact, and we expect continued growth in defense and space. In combination, we expect aerospace sales once again to be down more than 25% compared to the third quarter of 2019. Moving onto PMT, a combination of volatility in oil prices, coupled with the uncertainty stemming from the global pandemic has continued to put pressure on our businesses linked to oil and gas. We've seen a continued reduction in customer CapEx and OpEx budgets as well as project delays and site access constraints, which are impacting the engineering and licensing business in UOP and orders and projects and automation solutions in HPS. We also expect on-going headwinds for our products, businesses and process solutions causing declines in field services -- in field devices and thermal solutions. As we have previously discussed, we entered 2020 with a healthy backlog of global mega projects in HPS, which was still up over 80% year-over-year for the second quarter. And we expect these projects to continue to convert for the next few quarters. Access to customer sites will likely remain in, especially in high growth regions, including India, and Middle East. In UOP, we expect continued weakness in gas processing and lower cattle shipments due to lower production and refining volumes. Additionally, we anticipate new products will continue to push to the right and progress on current contracts may be delayed, resulting in continued pressure on UOP, licensing and engineering. Within advanced materials, we expect that automotive refrigerant volumes will continue to recover as auto OEM plants increase production and capacity levels. In Specialty products, we expect strong demand for healthcare packaging and electronic materials. Altogether, we expect PMT sales to be down more than 10% compared to the third quarter of 2019, driven principally by the volatility in the oil and gas markets. In HBT, while we do expect access to customer sites to improve in some regions in the third quarter, the current environment of non-residential product -- projects in multiple verticals have paused, and customers are deferring non-essential spending, impacting the timing of long cycle building solutions projects, and delaying purchases of security, building management and fire products. We expect these dynamics to continue in the third quarter, but to improve sequentially. In addition, Darius mentioned our new healthy building solution and our partnership with SAP for buildings, which we see as emerging growth opportunities. We expect HPP sales to be down more than 10% compared to the third quarter of 2019. And finally in SPS, the surge in e-commerce as governments enact social distancing requirements has strengthened demand for our warehouse automation business, and support continued conversion of our robust Intelligrated backlog. Our Intelligrated orders were up over 300% in the quarter to $1.2 billion, driven by major systems, bookings and Intelligrated backlog remains very strong, up 140% year-over-year to $2.1 billion. So we expect this business to perform well for the remainder of the year. We are also continuing to see record level demand for respiratory masks and other personal protective equipment. PBE orders were up triple digits for the second consecutive quarter, would strengthen the respiratory, head, eye, face, gloves and clothing categories. Our personal protective equipment backlog is now also at triple digits and our total SPS backlog is at an all-time high. The macro conditions continue to put pressure on other SPS businesses including sensing and IoT, gas sensing and productivity products where we expect to see declines in the third quarter. Overall, we expect sales in SPS to grow single digits compared to the third quarter of 2019, less than 7% overall a very good result. So while there are signs of stabilization in the macro economy, key end markets remain challenged and economic conditions fluid. We have both opportunities and challenges in the portfolio, but on balance, we expect sales for the company to be down again more than 15% versus the prior year. We expect between $125 million and $175 million of additional repositioning charges in the third quarter to fund our cost programs. This increase in repositioning in the second and third quarters will drive higher repositioning cash outflows in the second half of the year, putting pressure on our free cash flow. Additional details for our tax rate, share count, and below the line expenses are included in the appendix. With that, I'd like to turn the call back to Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Greg. Let's wrap up on slide nine. As we expected, this quarter proved to be very difficult, but we effectively managed to the challenges with strong operational execution and cash generation. We remain cautious heading into the second half of the year, if there are still many unknowns. However, our diversified portfolio and significant balance sheet strength will continue to provide resilience in these uncertain times. We acted quickly and responsibly to make structural changes to our cost base during the quarter. We funded over $250 million in repositioning and we identified significant additional actions to align our cost base with the current environment in 2020 and 2021. Despite the challenging times, we are delivering growth in several parts of the portfolio, particularly in Defense, Intelligrated and Personal Protective equipment. We're also investing in growth opportunities, and working hard to provide innovative solutions for emerging customer needs. I am proud of everyone at Honeywell who is working hard to adapt and deliver this challenging environment. I'm confident we will emerge from this crisis even stronger than ever. With that Mark, let’s move to Q&A.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you, Darius. Darius and Greg are now available to answer your questions. Lauren, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] And our first question is coming from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning everyone. Two from me, if I could. Very clear on the cost out what you expect to deliver in 2020. Darius or Greg, though, given that some of this stuff is kind of in flight over the course of the year here, I just wonder if you could give us a little bit of feel of kind of what the carryover positive effects of this phase 1 and phase 2 would be, as we look into next year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, well, I think, we sort of provide some guidance on that in the 60% to 70%. Because I think you have really three buckets of cost that we think about right, which is purely temporarily and think about those as furloughs, which obviously are going to come back. The second bucket is what I call semi-permanent, those are some of that indirect cost base, which obviously are impacted, which they're not permanent in nature, but we think some of those are going to carry over into 2021. And obviously, permanent reductions, so the 60 to 70 is a pretty good guide around that includes primarily the permanent reductions, and then some portion of the semi-permanent because obviously, on the indirect cost, we're not going to be as low as we were in 2020. But we're also not going to get back to 2019 levels. So we kind of have, think about a 50:50 or something in that kind of a split that we approximate. That's sort of the rough guide, how to think about that. I don’t know Greg, if you want..
Greg Lewis:
No, that’s right. And again, at the midpoint of our 14 to 16, you can kind of use the one five number, extrapolate that 60% to 70% from there.
Darius Adamczyk:
I mean, I think the only Jeff -- the only unknown is you know, sort of timing because the permanent ones the timing isn't perfectly predictable. And some of it may move soon, sooner, some may move later. So I think timing element is, I would say somewhat unpredictable, but not sliding more than, let's say a quarter.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. And that'll be that'll become much, much clearer, 90 days from now, as we get through the third quarter.
Jeff Sprague:
And second question, just again trying to get a sense of what the future holds. And I totally respect you don't want to kind of give really explicit guidance yet, but the framework here certainly helps. You gave us SPS orders, could you give us orders for the other two segments in the quarter? So we have kind of a feel for what you're working with here as we look forward.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I mean, if you think about HBT and PMT, they were down in the teens is the way to think about it. You know, obviously [in aero] [ph] they were down mid-double digits. I mean they were significantly down. But I think there's, so that's sort of a hopefully that gives you some color. But I think, there's a couple of really important things to remember. Our total Honeywell backlog actually is up 3%. And even the PMT backlog is up 2%. So, obviously orders actually kind of came in, more or less where we expected them to do. But overall, the backlog position improved which I think was a pretty good sign. So all-in-all, not as bad as we anticipated.
Jeff Sprague:
Right, thanks. I'll pass it.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys, good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Morning, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Just on Aerospace when you look out to the kind of third quarter just profile wise, what do you expect between OE and aftermarket, you know will one be picking up a little bit, the other decelerating? I mean, what is the -- just on year-over-year basis, how do we think the kind of the moving parts for those two guys on the commercial side?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Maybe I'll start, I mean, just to give you a little bit of a -- so let's kind of divide it up into three segments. We'll start with defense and space. We expect that to grow again. So that's been the strength for our business in aerospace in Q2. We expect that to continue in Q3. When you think about OE, we actually expected to be flat to down versus Q2 for couple reasons. Number one, obviously, we had some carryover back from Q1 in terms of shipments. Number two is in some segments, in some of our OEs that we don't see the robust production rates exhibited in Q3. So we don't see that improving. In terms of business aviation aftermarket, we expect that to be slightly better than it was in Q2. And then, finally in ATR, that one is toughest to call. And I'll tell you why. Because you can't just look at flight hours. So, all the flight hours will be better. And you if you think about our low to mid 70s reduction year-over-year in Q2, we kind of estimated Q3 to be something in the, call it, 50s or something of that nature, which actually maybe a little bit aggressive. But the thing to think about here is that it's not -- there is a lead and lag impact. And the second component which is somewhat unknown, although we haven't seen it, is there going to be cannibalization of some of the parked aircraft. So that one for us is really tough to call. And we're going to have to just kind of see how the quarter evolves. And that's why its hard for us to give precise guidance, because these things are unknown. We had airlines adding more flights in July and August. Now they've have pulled back their schedules a bit in August. So there's a lot of moving pieces here. And I think the ATR aftermarket component is toughest one to call.
Steve Tusa:
And sorry, when you talk about kind of that USM, the used parts dynamic, your businesses is electronics. There are some software, obviously, you have some mechanical components. But I mean, outside of putting business jets aside, just looking at the large commercial stuff, I mean, how much of your business is even kind of exposed to that. It wouldn't seem to me to be a material mover maybe by few hundred basis points, but not something that can really swing things around in a major way. Correct?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. Its not -- no, I don't think its going to dramatic. But I think it would be wrong to just say, well, to tie the aftermarket performance purely to the quarter-over-quarter flight hours. Because we do think obviously flight hours are going to better in Q3 versus Q2. But I don't think its necessarily just a pure correlation. We think it's going be a modest -- very modest impact. And keep in mind that we also had some orders back all the way from Q1 that we still filled in Q2, so we had a little bit lead/lag impact. So I don't think something dramatic, because the natural assumption will be, okay, well, its going to be a lot better in Q3. The fact is, we're really not sure, because we need to kind of see how things evolve in some of the factors I talked about.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I don't think airlines behaviors aren't necessarily solidified yet.
Steve Tusa:
Yes. One last one, just getting at the cost discussion with bit of a different way. Probably in the worst quarter hopefully that you ever see as CEO, you guys are putting up headline decremental of 33%. Would the goal be to kind of on the way up, leverage at when things normalize, kind of leverage at the -- a comfortable number that's comfortably above that? Would that kind of be the high level total [ph]?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, I think -- look, I mean, 33% given the sudden kind of stop in our business. We actually view its pretty good given that what we have aerospace exposure and oil and gas exposure. So I think that that's going to be respectable performance.
Greg Lewis:
Which by the way was substantially different then ‘08 and ‘09? The aftermarket up here is multiples of what it was in '08, '09 recession, which really puts a lot of pressure on those decrementals.
Darius Adamczyk:
But our plan here though is to show improvement from this number going forward. I don't think its going to be dramatically better in Q3. But we do expect modest improvement in some of the -- in that 33. So that's sort of how we're thinking about it.
Steve Tusa:
Right. Okay. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hey, good morning guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Davis:
Guys, there was a lot of fanfare around this SAP cloud Forge thing. And maybe you can back up a little bit. I mean, can you can you help us size it a little bit? Or think about what -- how do you get paid for it? What's the opportunity is -- and maybe some early signs around take rate? Just some color about really what the upside is in that alliance?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think it's really, really exciting, because I think Honeywell and SAP have, what I call, complimentary growth strategies. So this alliance, we started out in buildings, but I think it's -- I think we have a much broader opportunities. And just to give you a perspective, clearly the connected buildings part was really a highlight of our Q2 in terms of our connected enterprise. And just to give you the level of growth, we saw 26% growth in that segment in Q2. So, in this environment and given, I think that's tremendous. Obviously, we're onto something. In terms of some of the growth drivers, I mean, obviously, it's energy savings, its security, it's a coherent interface, so that building owners or maintainers can understand what's going on. It's building occupancy optimization. Now with the launch of healthy business buildings, it's also social distancing. It's wearing PP&E, temperature monitoring, clean air quality, all these elements are part of that connected buildings offering, which we're now augmenting even more with a broader focus on kind of creating a healthy environment for the office worker. And the other maybe one last thing I'd want to add on to, Scott, is that we're also in our HBT business. We're also reorganizing to be much more end market vertical oriented. So for example, we're going to go to the market is set a solutions for healthcare or hospitals, for stadiums, for airports, for office buildings, for data centers. So that's an evolution in our HBT strategy. And I think we're going to-- it's going to be that much more effective, because we're going to be that much closer and much more intimate with those customers and their needs.
Scott Davis:
Thanks. I'll follow up with you on the sizing. And it doesn't sound like you want to answer that part of the questions.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think, I'm not ducking the question, because frankly, we're creating the market. Whenever you create a market, it's hard to guess at the sizing. But just our own installed base is vast. We think that over time, this could be a billion dollar business just that's sort of our scope. And we don't think that that's like decades away. So, we have big hopes in double-digit growth rates are in expectations. And the good news about that is, even in an environment like we had in Q2, which was an all time worst for Honeywell, I mean, literally, it was probably the worst quarter hopefully I'll ever see, 26% growth gives you the kind of traction we're gaining in this segment.
Scott Davis:
No, you answered the question. So Just a quick follow up. The order growth and intelligrated is pretty dramatic and not a total surprise, but they're big numbers. Can you actually satisfy that demand without incurring some extraordinarily kind of costs around, maybe over time or…?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I mean, that's -- I mean, you heard, Greg discussed this. I mean, we're aggressively investing in our CapEx.
Greg Lewis:
And people.
Darius Adamczyk:
And people. So we're cutting in some areas, because we have to, but we're actually adding a lot of people and others. So, $250 million of incremental CapEx that we never had in our budget. And Scott, I think this is an important data point. I just want to give you and I think it's one to remember. When we bought intelligrated, roughly $800 million to $900 million business per year. We booked $1.2 billion this past quarter. That gives you the kind of growth profile we're seeing in that business.
Scott Davis:terrible:
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hi, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Maybe just the first question around the free cash flow. So you had good conversion in Q2, but I think the first half was running in the 80s percent-wise on conversion. You talked about some restructuring going perhaps in the second half. Greg, so maybe just help us understand where you're seeing free cash flow conversion perhaps for the year as a whole. And any other major swing factors in the second half that we should think about?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So, I'm not going to give you a conversion rate, because, again, that also is dependent on where things come out on the bottom line, which is we discussed we're not going to guide here today. But as it relates to some of the pressure points, I mean, obviously, we harvested the receivables with our -- in Q2, which was good. And we also were able to bring down some of our pass-through receivables. We worked very closely with a lot of our customers, particularly in the airline space to make sure that we are managing some risks around that. So pleased about the results there. But going forward, again, as I mentioned, the solvency risks, I think are in front of us, not behind us. And so, that may create some challenges in the back half of the year as we start seeing additional bankruptcies. And again, a lot of that depends on behavior travel, any stimulus that may come out in the back half of the year and so forth. The other thing is, I did mention repositioning and we booked over $300 million of repositioning, a lot of those are very fast payback less than, I think about less than a year kind of payback. And a lot of those are very heavy from a severance perspective. So, we spent about $170 million of cash, repositioning in the first half of the year. I expect that to be probably double that number in the back half of the year round about. So that's going to be a pressure point for us as well. And then again, we are investing in capital. So, this year -- if you think back to when we originally did our outlook call early in the year for 2020, we had about a $900 million capital budget. And even with this decline, we're still at about a $900 million capital budget for the year. That's because we did do some smart things to reduce CapEx in places where things were slowing. But with all the growth programs that we're adding, and as Darius mentioned, these things have triple digit IRRs. So we're going to do them. So our total CapEx for the year is going to be $900 million, even this year. And we only spent about $370 million in the first half. So that's going to ramp up in half two. And then if you remember, we also did talk about at the very first guidance call early in the year that we were going to have an extra payroll cycle in 2020. And that's going to happen in 4Q. So that was like $150 million, $170 million. So, I think this would be our best cash quarter of the year. And again, we're happy with the work that we've done, particularly around receivables management. We have work to do an inventory now. And so, those would be the main things that I would highlight. CapEx, repositioning cash, that pay cycle, dynamic is going to play out in 4Q and we've got to work on our inventory management.
Darius Adamczyk:
And I think from an investment perspective, I would just add that, we're nearly doubling our growth CapEx from our original plans, because to be honest, I haven't seen IRRs ever that were triple digit. And it's by far the best we could put our capital to work with some of these high return CapEx projects and they're terrific. And we're not afraid to, I mean, if need be, we may even be targeting more investments for growth in the second half.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks, Darius. So yes, I think you point just now on the scores that you're thinking clearly about the recovery and how to position Honeywell for that in terms of organic investment. I guess following up on that, how should we think about capital deployment from here? You're making that push on the organic side. Are you looking out at the M&A landscape and your balance sheet and thinking this is the right time to go ahead and start to upscale the portfolio through acquisitions as you try and position yourself for the next up term? Or is it we probably should expect a balance of M&A and buy back for the next six or 12 months?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, I think, we're always going to see some level. We hope to see some balance, right? I mean, I think that's kind of --its going to be the formula going forward. I certainly will tell you that, the M&A function is open for business. I mean, I think we -- it was prudent for us to take a little bit of a pause in Q2 just to see how the world evolves, how things are going to change, and so on. But A, you kind of saw the -- kind of working capital performance we had. And we've further secured the balance sheet and protected even more. And I think you would agree that the balance sheet is very strong and well protected, well funded. So in short, we're very much open for business, both from an M&A perspective, as well as potential buyback perspective. And we already made a commitment that we're going to at least keep share count flat from here, which is new news. And we're going to kind of take a look at what opportunities are out there in the second half. I mean, the M&A environment is just a little bit slower just because everybody is focused on battling the crisis. But we think that that may open up a little bit more here in a second half and we hope to be active.
Julian Mitchell:
Great. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
I guess, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on defense and space, which was a highlight in arrow. How much visibility do you have on DoD being able to accelerate payments on programs? Basically, what happens in 2021? Is defense and space -- I'm not asking about the end market outlook, but -- so there is a very sort of basic cash outlay dynamics by the Department of Defense to you guys on existing programs. So does that mean that 2021 has to be down or is there a chance that 2021 can be flat? Specifically on Defense and Space.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. At this stage we're not expecting a decline in 2021 at this point. We feel like the defense budget is as you highlighted is still fairly robust. So, not expecting a material downshift from 2020 to 2021.
Andrew Obin:
And just a follow-up question. You highlighted masks and just I guess, two pronged questions, I think. It was great strategic move on your part of respiratory protections. So A, do you have plans to continue to increase capacity on masks? And part two of the question, does it open sort of strategic opportunities for you down the line and safety to build on this new strength?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Andrew, I'd say, well, first of all it's more than masks, right? So this isn't just masks. Mask's a part of it. But it's other PP&E. It's also expanding capacity in our sensing business for pressure sensors, which go into a lot of the medical equipment that our hospitals desperately need. So, I would say that our capacity expansion is much more broad based. And it's not just mask oriented. But certainly, as we look longer term, this sort of opens up new opportunities for us. I'd say maybe less -- it's less about masks, but a little bit more about steering their business towards serving the medical segment. That's kind of how we think about it.
Andrew Obin:
And any plans to add additional capacity specifically on N95 in the second half on top of what you [Indiscernible]?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. We've been doing that gradually. And as we see the demand, we're certainly not going to be afraid to add even more capacity. So as we -- the demand is still very robotic. And I think it's very possible that we could be adding even more capacity here in the second half of the year.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you very much.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning., Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Hey, Darius, maybe let's just start on UOP and HPS. I know when we kind of talked into the quarter, it seems like you were a little bit more sanguine about UOP kind of recovering quicker just given miles driven, should be fairly more resilient this cycle versus prior cycles. I'm just curious whether that's changed at all? And what you're seeing along those lines?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, I think the segment for UOP that was the most challenge is our gas processing segment, which obviously is closely tied to the unconventional gas production primarily in the U.S. and as you know that's very challenged. So we saw some pretty big drop off. But even before this crisis hit, I mean, the mix in UOP can vary substantially from quarter-to-quarter or even year-to-year. And we always knew we had a very heavy equipment mix in the business into Q2 and Q3 of this year. And even if this recession hadn't hit, we always had a challenging -- now you -- mix going into it. Now you combine that with kind of a push out of a lot of the catalyst refills, push out of projects, obviously, their refining capacity wasn't as -- or demand wasn't as robust as any of us would hope here in Q2. If you combine all these factors and UOP obviously was a bit more challenged than some of our other businesses, HPS performed, I think, admirably in the quarter. I mean, some of the products businesses were a little bit more challenged than the systems businesses. So overall pretty much aligned with our expectations. And in terms of advanced materials that one was heavily impacted by the shutdowns in auto manufacturing and our supplied sources [ph] which expect to see some level of recovery here in the second half of the year.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Fair enough. And then, maybe just one follow on question. Just going back to the cost commentary. And Greg, maybe the question for you. You made a comment about just kind of fixed cost pressure in 3Q versus 2Q. And so, how should we be thinking about like, how much of the benefits are actually coming through in 3Q versus what came through in 2Q. And potentially maybe talk a little bit about how the temporary reversals -- if there are temporary reversals that occurred 3Q is impacting that number?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So that's exactly why I chose the words I did. Because some of those temporary actions, furloughs, some of the other reductions in discretionary spend, that may start ticking up during the course of 3Q. And then as I mentioned, we're backfilling that with some of our fixed -- sorry, more permanent actions. But those are going to play out over the course of June, July, August, September. So, the, the steepness of that backfill is probably going to be more weighted towards the fourth quarter then the third. So we're doing our level best to try to hold our fixed costs flat. They may not be in Q3. But I would expect the one -- we talked about one-four to one-six as a range with 700 already achieved in the first half of the year. I would think the balance of that is going to be a little bit more weighted towards the fourth quarter than the third.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. And maybe like, I don't know, like sequentially, like, I don't know, call it, $50 million in pressure in 3Q verses 2Q?
Greg Lewis:
I'm not going to quote you a specific number, Joe.
Darius Adamczyk:
It's just -- because we simply can't call the timing of that perfectly. I mean, it's not -- obviously when -- temporary reactions are pretty easy to call, because you can sort of unilaterally implement that. When you go when you shift -- basically what we're doing Q3 and Q4 is, we're shifting and substituting some of the temporary actions we've taken in Q2 for permanent. The timing of that can't be exactly perfectly called. And as Greg pointed out, I think it's going to be a little bit more weight towards Q4 than Q3.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, fair enough. Thanks guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Nigel Coe with Wolf Research.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning and really appreciate you making this a no-drama Friday. So, I want to go back to your comments around decrementals. And I appreciate the comments that you think he can generate better decremetal margins into the back half of the year. And I'm wondering if that confidence extends to the aerospace margins. I think there were 39%, 40% or thereabouts in 2Q. And recognizing mix is an important factor there. But do you think that you can maintain or even improve on that performance?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think the comment was more in total. I think Aero is the toughest to call because of the uncertainty around the mix that I talked about, particularly in air transport aftermarket, which is you can imagine a very interesting and higher margin revenue stream.
Greg Lewis:
And you could very easily see it being sequentially down.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So I'm not -- I can't tell you that Areos necessarily going to have better decrementals at least in Q3. But we are cautiously optimistic that Honeywell in total will continue to drive better decremental margins as we move from Q3 and even more so into Q4, provided, of course, all of that is provided we don't have sort of a much broader and much more aggressive phase two of COVID-19, which I guess is, depending on who you listen to that, I guess it's always possible in the fall. So that's kind of how we're thinking about our math for the rest of the year.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. Very, very clear. And then, again, look just peeking into 2021 within aerospace and think about business jets. At a very high level, how do you think the post COVID will look for the categories you play in, which is obviously the upper end of the markets? How does that look from your perspective, your perch in the post COVID world? It seems to me like there could be some benefits, but I'm curious how you think about that?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, a couple points. Number one is, I think that you saw the bottom in Q2. See a gradual slow improvement as we move into Q3, Q4 and then into 2021, we're going to continue to see improvement. I think we're -- the real discontinuity here where we could see a much more dramatic improvement, which is really going to be tied to a medical solution, which is probably a vaccine when it gets distributed. Because the level of the leisure traveler is actually a little bit better than expected. People are traveling. But we need really that second leg to come in, which is the business traveler. And that part of it, we think is going to happen after we get a much broader distribution of a vaccine, which, right now I, you know, it's anybody's guess when will happen. But I think the news overall is actually pretty good. And I don't think it's crazy to think that we may even have a certified vaccine before the end of year, this year now, then we also have to think about the distribution timing and so on. So, we're optimistic that certainly there's going to be a medical solution in the first half of next year, which obviously will stimulate a greater level of air travel.
Nigel Coe:
Great. Thanks very much.
Greg Lewis:
Lauren, let's take one more question, please.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from John Inch with Gordon Haskett.
John Inch:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for squeezing me in here. Hey, Darius and Greg, so, if you look at your restructuring programs in the 60 to 70 of structural. How would you anticipate so your pro forma headcount ending 2020? I just glanced at the K, it looks like you started the year with 113,000 employees. Where would we expect that kind of to end based on? And then, I don't mean on a furlough basis. I'm trying to sort of think about the significance in terms of headcount based on your structural actions that you're taking in which what you've called out?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think it's tough to call it this point. I'll tell you why. Because although, we obviously know roughly what we're have in our restructuring plan. So we know what we're going to do there. What we don't know is the capacity additions, because all the work -- some of the reductions are taking place in places like aerospace to a lesser extent PMT and so on. But now we're adding hundreds, if not thousands of people in SPS. And we don't think we're done. I think that we're going to be making further investments in people, further investments in capacity. So I think it's a little bit too early to call exactly what that -- our staffing may look like at year end. And I'd hate to give you a number, which may prove inaccurate.
John Inch:
No, that's fine. The magnitude of the action, Darius, seemed pretty substantial. So I'm just trying to sort of triangulate that? Could that mean, if you're weren't adding capacity here, you're taking out 5% of your headcount or how -- what else would you say about that? I suppose is kind of question.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, I think it's -- in Aero, it's substantial. It's closer to double digit. In some of the other businesses, we're adding headcount. So a little bit all over the place. I mean, I think we've tried to be -- protect as many jobs as we can, because we frankly don't want to be doing a lot of job reductions. But I also have to be realistic. And we have to be realistic that, we don't think that this is a quarter or two phenomenon in aerospace. And unfortunately, the business is going to shrink for a little while. We do think -- I'm not, by the way, I'm not so pessimistic that I think aero is going to be down till 2024. As I've heard some estimate, I actually think it's going to come back a bit faster than that and to align to a medical solution. But realistically, it's probably not going to get back to the 2019 levels until at least 2022 or maybe even a bit later. So, we're sizing the business for that kind of a reduction.
John Inch:
Yes, that that makes sense. Just as a follow up, guys you know this ultraviolet airplane cabin cleaning technology, is it applicable to what could you even sort of develop product for a commercial building, application or even residential? That would seem like a pretty big deal if you can actually extrapolate that.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, we are -- we're working on exactly that type of a solution, which treats the air, ultraviolet light, and obviously results in a much higher air quality than anything out there. So that is very much part of our thinking and part of our solution. So we're doing some studies around, timing required, exposure to UV light required. And that's very much part of our thinking.
John Inch:
Yes now you get that on the New York City subway, the economy might actually come back. Great. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
And that concludes today's question and answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for any additional or closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
I want to thank our shareowners for their continued support of Honeywell. We are focused on continuing to perform for our share owners, our customers and our employees in any environment. We are well positioned to manage through challenging times with our balanced portfolio, track record of execution and a strong balance sheet. I'm excited about the future of Honeywell, despite the current challenges facing the global economy. We are capturing new growth opportunities by providing innovative solutions for new customer needs, and our operational rigor will continue to serve us well. Thank you for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
That does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell’s First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. And I would now like to introduce you to your host for today’s conference, Mark Bendza, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you, Savannah. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell’s first quarter 2020 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. Also joining us today is Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, Torsten Pilz who is here to participate in Q&A related to our supply chain. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions and we ask that you interpret them in that light. Unless otherwise noted, the plans described herein are not final and may be modified or even abandoned at any time. No final decision will be taken with respect to such plans without prior satisfaction of any applicable requirements with respect to informing, consulting or negotiating with employees or their representatives. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the first quarter of 2020 and share our views on the second quarter of 2020. As always we’ll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Before we turn to slides, I would like to make a few opening remarks. We’re clearly holding this call during unprecedented times. The COVID-19 pandemic has widespread impacts on our communities, from our families, friends and neighbors to our employees, customers and suppliers. At Honeywell, our number one priority is the health and safety of our employees. We are taking many precautions to preserve their well-being over 100,000 employees around the world, results in very few infections across the company. Each of our employees is demonstrating a strong commitment to our company and to our customers during these challenging times. I sincerely thank them for their strength, resilience and courage. I would also like to express my gratitude to the men and women on the frontlines of this fight. The healthcare workers are working every day to overcome this global health emergency. They are the heroes and we’re doing everything we can to support them with increased production of personal protective equipment and other critical supplies. This morning, we’ll discuss six key topics. First, we’ll review our first quarter performance, a quarter during, which we over-delivered on our original EPS and segment margin commitments despite a rapidly deteriorating environment. I am particularly proud of this outcome as, even in a crisis, we demonstrated that our investors can count on our reliable say-do outcome. Second, we will discuss how we are working to keep our employees and the men and women on the frontline safe and healthy. Third, we’ll discuss our outlook for the second quarter. The next few quarters are likely to be among the most unpredictable quarters we’ve ever experienced and our visibility is limited under the current circumstances. Accordingly, our outlook for the second quarter will have less detail than usual, but we’ll provide a level of detail that is commensurate with our visibility in the current environment. We’re also suspending our full year financial guidance until the economic environment stabilizes and we can once again provide a reliable forecast. Fourth, we will provide an overview of our strong balance sheet and the liquidity position, which will take years of responsible balance sheet management. Fifth, we will outline decisive and expeditious actions we have already taken to manage through the crisis, protect shareholder value and emerge stronger than ever. We cannot control the pandemic, but we can control how we’re mitigating risk to our operations and supply chain, engaging with customers, managing costs and preserving liquidity. As you’ll see, we are applying Honeywell’s usual level of discipline and diligence to this unprecedented situation. We’ve already locked in plans, which we are executing so that we are not searching for answers as the crisis continues to unfold. And finally, we’ll provide an overview of some new opportunities that are well aligned to our portfolio. Let’s begin on Slide 2. We delivered EPS and segment margin expansion above the high end of our original guidance in a rapidly deteriorating environment. Earnings per share for the first quarter was $2.21, up 15% year-over-year and segment margin expanded 140 basis points to 21.8%. The global spread of COVID-19 during the first quarter created operational constraints for Honeywell, our suppliers and our customers. In some cases, access to customer sites was restricted, impacting our ability to complete deliveries and provide services. COVID-19 and the OPEC-plus dispute also caused demand weakness, particularly in our short cycle businesses and in the Aerospace and Oil and Gas end markets. The combination of these effects resulted in an organic sales decline of 4%. As you have come to expect from Honeywell, we responded quickly to changing conditions by implementing cost control measures, which combined with our productivity rigor and commercial excellence drove 140 basis points of segment margin expansion, 90 basis points above the high end of our first quarter guidance. We also generated $800 million of free cash flow despite lower cash collections from customers at the end of the quarter due to the challenging macroeconomic conditions. We continue to implement our responsible and balanced capital deployment program during the first quarter. We deployed $2.7 billion of capital across share repurchases, dividends and high return CapEx investments to position our company for the future. This was a challenging first quarter due to the rapid escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic and the OPEC-plus dispute. We’re effectively – but we effectively managed through the challenge to over-deliver on our profit commitments, demonstrating our strong say-do. Let’s turn to Slide 3 to discuss our response to the pandemic. As the COVID-19 pandemic started to evolve, we acted quickly to ensure the safety of our employees as well as to aiding the frontline response to the crisis. We implemented several precautionary measures to keep our employees safe, including travel restrictions for all employees and full-time work-from-home for nearly all of our non-manufacturing employees. At Honeywell locations where work cannot be performed remotely such as manufacturing sites, we implemented measures to protect our employees including restricting visitors, enhancing site cleaning and sanitation regimens, providing hand sanitizers, staggering shifts and lunch breaks and putting safe distance practices in place where possible. Where social distancing isn’t possible, we have also provided employees with masks. We have also implemented mandatory temperature screening at several locations and are putting capabilities in place to expand that practice as needed. We’ll continue to comply with all local and national guidance from governments and health authorities. In addition, we announced that Honeywell will pay for coronavirus testing and treatment costs that are not covered by employees insurance and will provide a full year of paid sick-time upfront for U.S. non-exempt employees. Finally, we announced a $10 million employee relief fund to help employees in financial distress. We also recognize the urgency to keep medical professionals safe. We have quickly ramped up production of our personal protective equipment to address unprecedented demand. We recently announced that we’re adding manufacturing capabilities to our existing sites in Smithfield, Rhode Island and Phoenix, Arizona to produce millions of N95 masks to help support the urgent need for critical safety equipment. The additional capacity at these two facilities is expected to create more than 1,000 new jobs and produce more than 20 million N95 disposable masks monthly to support the U.S. government’s efforts to combat the virus. Our Smithfield, Rhode Island facility is already producing N95 masks. We installed a production line in only five weeks, a process that normally takes nine months to complete. Honeywell is supporting the fight against COVID-19 in other ways as well, including increasing production of our other critical personal protective equipment such as safety eyewear and facials, increasing production of sensors used in ventilators and providing testing services to ventilator manufacturers. Finally, we recently announced that we will shift manufacturing operations at two chemical manufacturing sites in the U.S. and Germany to produce and donate hand sanitizers to government agencies in response to shortages created by the COVID-19 pandemic. These sites which manufactures a high-purity solutions for laboratory research and testing applications will produce hand sanitizers over the next two months for government agencies to distribute to entities in need. These are certainly challenging times and we’re proud of our role and the many actions we have taken to produce essential personal protective equipment to keep the heroes on the frontlines safe. Now let me turn it over to Greg on Slide 4 to discuss our first quarter results in more detail as well as to provide our views on the second quarter and the balance sheet.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, organic sales declined by 4% as the effects of the pandemic spread across the globe creating supply chain challenges and restricting access to customer sites, which constrained our ability to deliver, particularly in the last two to three weeks of the month. Aerospace sales were up 1% on an organic basis as demand for key U.S. Department of Defense programs and guidance and navigation systems in Defense and Space was partially offset by the steep reduction to flight hours and a slowdown in air transport OE build rates, primarily from our previously communicated lowered 737 MAX deliveries to Boeing and commercial aerospace. Safety and Productivity Solutions sales were down 9% organically. Increased demand for respiratory personal protective equipment was more than offset by weakness in the short-cycle part of the portfolio. Intelligrated sales were down about 12% due to the timing of several major systems projects as expected. As a reminder, Intelligrated organic growth in the first quarter of last year was approximately 50% up due to strong major systems backlog conversion, aftermarket services and increased demand for voice solutions, which created a very tough comp for this quarter. Intelligrated backlog remains robust, approximately up 40% year-over-year and as we discussed in our last call, we expect growth to reaccelerate in the second quarter. Honeywell Building Technologies sales were down 6% on an organic basis, primarily driven by softness in Building Solutions projects and lower short-cycle volumes and security and building management products. Finally, Performance Materials and Technologies, down 5% was negatively affected by the sharp decline in oil prices stemming from the OPEC-plus dispute and the COVID-19-related disruptions with HPS down 6% and UOP down 2%. Continued illegal HFC imports into Europe and lower automotive refrigerant volumes in Advanced Materials also contributed to the sales decline. Despite these challenges, our productivity rigor combined with commercial excellence and swift cost actions drove segment margin expansion of 140 basis points, well above our original guidance of 20 to 50 basis points. We delivered earnings per share of $2.21, up 15% and well above the high end of our original guidance range of $2.02 to $2.07. Segment profit expansion drove $0.04 of earnings growth while a lower adjusted effective tax rate, primarily due to new India tax legislation drove $0.13 of EPS improvement compared to last year. Even without the favorable tax impact, the first quarter EPS was $0.01 above the high end of our guidance and up 8% year-over-year. We generated $800 million of free cash flow, down 31% year-over-year primarily driven by lower sales and slower collections, particularly in late March. We continued to execute our capital deployment plans in the first quarter. We deployed over $600 million to dividends and $1.9 billion of share repurchases, substantially completing our full-year 2020 share repurchase commitment. We also invested over $100 million in capital expenditures in the quarter, including investments that will enable us to produce millions more N95 masks to help the coronavirus relief effort. Overall, this was a very challenging quarter but we continue to execute and achieved or over-delivered on our segment profit, margin expansion and EPS commitments. Now let’s turn to Slide 5 to discuss our operations. Our portfolio is highly aligned to guidelines for essential and critical businesses around the world. Our teams have been working tirelessly to ensure that we are able to provide equipment and services to our customers in critical end markets globally in compliance with government safety regulations. The spread of COVID-19 has created operational challenges for Honeywell, our suppliers and our customers as governments and companies implement measures to slow the spread of the pandemic and keep employees safe. These challenges included temporary site closures, staffing shortages, inability to access customer sites for service and project engineers and transportation and logistics disruptions. The operational constraints change daily. However, we have implemented rigorous business continuity processes to ensure they are proactively addressed and minimized to the extent possible. Though operational disruptions have cost headwinds, our integrated supply chain team’s efforts under Torsten’s leadership have been able to keep us running. After the outbreak in China, we set up a tactical operation center in January to monitor and manage global supply risk and established its processes to identify and assist suppliers in financial distress. We continue to monitor all suppliers to ensure they remain operational and we provide support to help them reopen when they experience temporary closures. Today, well over 90% of our suppliers are operational. Our logistics team has been proactively securing transportation and freight modes to ensure transportation availability amid supply and demand imbalances. As it stands today, over 90% of our sites are operational globally. Approximately 15% of our sites are currently experiencing staffing constraints in select regions around the world, including sites in Mexico, Europe, and Asia-Pac, where governments have mandated up to 25% to 75% reductions in staffing. We are pleased with our progress in responding to these operational constraints and mitigating those impacts. We experience new headwinds every day, but we continue to monitor our supply chain, work closely with our suppliers and respond swiftly when new challenges arise. But because of these actions, our global operations are running with limited but unpredictable disruptions or interruptions and these are some of the dynamics that are contributing to our challenge on predictability of our short-term financial outlook. Now let’s turn to Slide 6, and we’ll discuss our segment outlook for the second quarter. As Darius said previously, the next few quarters are likely to be among the most unpredictable we have ever experienced and our visibility has limits under the current circumstances. Accordingly, we are suspending providing full financial guidance until the economic environment stabilizes and we can once again give reliable and comprehensive forecasts. We believe it is important that we provide a level of precision that is commensurate with our ability to forecast in the current environment. And therefore, you’ll see a different set of inputs versus our normal guidance. Starting with Aerospace, we expect more than a 50% decrease in global air transport flight hours and more than a 40% decrease in global business aviation flight hours in the second quarter, based on industry sources, which will significantly impact our commercial aftermarket businesses. In addition, our commercial original equipment business will be impacted by the ongoing 737 MAX production delays, OEM furloughs and temporary shutdowns and lower business jet demand due to the economic slowdown. However, government defense budgets remain intact and we expect continued growth in Defense and Space, though, this will be more than offset by the broader end market challenges and significant demand reduction in the commercial aerospace segment. As a result, we expect Aerospace sales to be down more than 25% compared to the second quarter of 2019. Moving to PMT, the dramatic volatility and decline in oil prices related to the OPEC+ dispute, coupled with the COVID-19 related supply chain disruptions has created a challenging environment. We are encouraged by the OPEC+ production cut agreement and we hope for even broader action. However, we need to see a sustained increase in demand to see a more meaningful impact in the marketplace. As we’ve said in the past, oil price volatility and sustained pressure on prices often leads to project delays and customer CapEx and OpEx budget cuts, which is what we are seeing today. We expect a steep decline in refining production in the second quarter and continued weakness in gas processing. The reduction of customer CapEx and OpEx budgets will create headwinds for our Products businesses, in Process Solutions and UOP with declines in field services, equipment and catalyst shipments. Additionally, we anticipate new projects will push to the right putting pressure on UOP licensing and engineering volumes in the near-term. As we have discussed in the last few earnings calls, we entered 2020 with a healthy backlog of global mega projects in Process Solutions and we do expect to burn those down over the next few quarters. Although we have not received any long cycle cancellations, we are expecting new orders to decline significantly in the second quarter. With the Advanced Materials, automotive plant closures will drive lower refrigerant volumes and a projected slowdown in global construction will further pressure sales. However, in specialty products, we are encouraged by strong demand for our healthcare packaging, armor and research chemical products. Altogether, we expect PMT sales to be down more than 15% compared to the second quarter of 2019. In HBT, we see the impact of COVID-19 pandemic as potentially shorter term in nature. In the current environment, non-residential projects in multiple verticals have paused and customers are deferring non-essential spending, impacting the timing of long-cycle Building Solutions projects and delaying purchase of security, building management, and fire products. Lower building occupancy and temporary disruption to site access are driving delayed timing of certain Building Solutions services. However, we believe these are largely short term timing effects and we continue to see the underlying demand, particularly in fire and security products and our services, where orders grew in the first quarter. So Building Technologies may begin to stabilize as businesses begin to reopen. We expect HBT sales to be down more than 10% compared to the second quarter of 2019. Finally in SPS, resurgent e-commerce, as government enacts social distancing requirements, has created more demand for our warehouse automation business and supports continued conversion of our robust Intelligrated backlog. In the second quarter, we will see growth from the major systems projects that we booked last year. Our Intelligrated backlog remains strong, up approximately 40% year-over-year and we expect this business to perform well for the remainder of the year. However, the macro conditions are resulting in headwinds in our short cycle SPS businesses, including productivity products, gas sensing and retail. Weakness in aerospace heavy equipment and automotive end markets is also resulting in headwinds in the sensing and IoT business, which will partially be offset by increased demand for sensors in medical ventilators and respiratory equipment. Finally, we are, of course, seeing record level demand for respiratory masks and other personal protective equipment and we expect that demand to continue for the foreseeable future. Mass production at our Smithfield, Rhode Island facility is already online and our Phoenix facility is expected to come online in the second quarter. PPE orders were up triple digits in the first quarter, with strength in respiratory, head, eye, face, gloves and clothing categories. Our personal protective equipment backlog is now up triple digits. In the second quarter, however, we expect for macro and short cycle headwinds to more than offset the growth in PPE and Intelligrated. We expect SPS sales to be down more than 5% compared to the second quarter of 2019. So while our diverse portfolio was resilient, the combined impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the OPEC+ dispute are meaningful across the global economy. While we have a rigorous MOS in place to manage our operational risks, the continuity of our operations, as well as those of our customers and suppliers continues to change daily as the impacts of the health crisis continue to unfold and evolve. As a result, we expect a very challenging second quarter with sales expected to be down more than 15% for the company versus the prior year. Now let’s move on to Slide 7 and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity. Our strong balance sheet provides a stable foundation, as well as opportunity for our company during challenging times such as these. We have maintained a premium credit rating for over 25 years, which has been a long-term competitive advantage for us, especially during difficult times like the downturn in 2008 and 2009 and again today. It reflects many years of responsible capital management, good stewardship of our pension plans and an emphasis on prudent leverage and significant liquidity. We exited 2019 in an incredibly strong position and we took additional actions during the first quarter to further bolster our financial flexibility as a precaution in these unpredictable times. As discussed in our outlook call, we further derisked our pension plan by increasing the plan’s asset allocation to 60% fixed income in the first quarter, which has proved to be prudent as our pension plan remain over-funded at the end of the quarter and requires no additional funding even with the tremendous volatility in the capital markets. We also refinanced the billion-dollar euros of February maturities with the euro bond offering maturing in 2024 and 2032. We have no remaining bond maturities coming due in 2020 and only $800 million of bond maturities coming due within the next year. Most recently, we announced the $6 billion two-year delayed-draw term loan agreement, which combined with our pre-existing $5.5 billion of undrawn revolving credit facilities brings our total undrawn sources of liquidity to $11.5 billion. As of the end of the first quarter, we had $8.8 billion of cash and short term investments on the balance sheet and a net debt to EBITDA ratio well below one. Altogether, we have over $20 billion of cash, short-term investments and undrawn sources of liquidity, readily available compared to only $800 million of long-term debt maturities and $3.5 billion of commercial paper coming due within the next year. And as you can see on the slide, our balance sheet and liquidity profile is significantly stronger than it was, heading into the 2008, 2009 downturn when we were more levered, had less than $6 billion of liquidity undrawn and our pension was severely underfunded. We will focus on preservation of liquidity during the second quarter and expect to enter the third quarter with significant capital deployment options, should we have greater clarity on economic conditions. With that, I’d like to turn the call back over to Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Greg. Let’s turn to Slide 8. As the COVID-19 pandemic started to spread, we immediately acted to maintain the continuity of our operations and keep serving our customers. These actions, in addition to Honeywell’s diversified portfolio, strong balance sheet and history of discipline and resilience in uncertain times, demonstrate our ability to manage through a difficult situation. We have already discussed our efforts within the supply chain and balance sheet this morning, so let me walk you through our three other key priorities, starting with sales generation. We rapidly redeployed around 1,000 of our sellers to align to areas where we were seeing market demand, particularly in our healthcare, e-commerce supply chain, remote factory operations, cyber security and PP&E offerings. We modified the sales incentive plans for our 6,500 sellers ensuring our sales teams had the proper motivation to find the areas of growth in our target markets. Also to ensure our sales managers and sellers have the skills they need and best practices to virtually connect with our customers, we developed playbooks containing sales best practices and lessons drawn from our China team, who were the first to implement virtual selling techniques. While not easy, our sellers have embraced the challenge and opportunity of maintaining a high level of communication for our customers. One of our HBT employees, even turned a room in his house into a live demo center for customers and he used it to launch a product to 40 of our top European partners via video. We’re also in the process of launching e-commerce websites to enable our transactional customers to receive product information and place orders quickly and efficiently. For example, our research chemicals business launched a new website to enable their customers performing important lab work associated with the COVID-19 pandemic to quickly and easily replenish their laboratory supplies. Our sales and demand generation actions are being reinforced by rigorous weekly review process led by me, personally, together with Jeff Kimbell, our Chief Commercial Officer. Demand generation remains a priority even in these difficult conditions. Let’s move next to our cost control actions. Our focus is on maintaining our employee base while also positioning the company for long term performance post crisis. We have rapidly implemented a series of measures to conserve cash and reduce cost, which will help mitigate the potential need for more drastic actions later and will give us more flexibility to respond to prolonged downturn or sudden disruptions in our end markets. Our cost reduction efforts will reduce cost by at least $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion in 2020 and will be more heavily weighted in the third and fourth quarters of the year. This includes approximately $200 million of benefits from prior year repositioning. We have eliminated or sharply reduced discretionary expenses, limited hiring and cancelled merit increases on a global basis for all levels of the company. Additionally, our businesses have, in some locations, initiated a rotating-schedule, reduced work weeks or eliminated work weeks. All executives, up through including senior staff and the Board of Directors have also reduced base pay this year and eliminated or substantially lower incentive payouts in 2020. We are also taking proactive steps to preserve jobs at our manufacturing sites including shortened or stagnant work schedules to match production volumes of demand. The expeditious completions of Phase 1 cost plan previously described is enabling us to complete a Phase 2 cost action plan, which should be developed within 30 days. We believe that these cost controls will enable Honeywell to respond to deteriorating market and economic condition as the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic becomes apparent. Finally, let’s discuss how we’re optimizing working capital to match demand in the current environment. We have a solid governance model around cash management and working capital and we executed a comprehensive risk assessment of customers and suppliers to preserve our strong cash position. We reviewed the policies for the highest risk in top revenue customers to make sure we have the appropriate parameters in place to protect our accounts receivable and we implemented tighter exception criteria and enhance executive leadership team review and approval. Additionally, we also set up processes to identify and assess high risk suppliers. We trained and mobilized over 600 procurement professionals to contact suppliers and take their financial temperature. Many suppliers have already received essential help to keep their doors open and their products and services flow into Honeywell’s factories. Having agile supply chain processes is more important than ever to manage our expenses and cash investments. Therefore, we condensed our sales, inventory and operations planning process from a traditional monthly cycle to a weekly cycle. Combining this with sales leading indicators, we’re sensing demand changes and realigning our inventory and production schedules faster than ever. Together, the actions we have implemented across the company have positioned Honeywell to effectively manage through uncertain times and we’re confident of our continued execution resilience. Let’s turn to Slide 9 to discuss our repositioning plan in more detail. As you would expect from us, we are accelerating plans for permanent cost reductions to ensure our cost base reflects the macro-economic environment, particularly in Aerospace and PMT where we see the end market challenges we have discussed this morning. We have ample capacity for repositioning in the second quarter and we’re planning for a net reposition of $175 million to $275 million. Our actions to shares will provide cost reduction tails into 2021 and are proactively preparing a Phase 2 plan, which will likely deploy as we assess market conditions. Now looking at Slide 10, let me take a moment to share some of the emerging areas of demand that we are adjusting for our customers. In the healthcare space, we see opportunities across multiple businesses. We’re increasing productions of sensors for medical ventilators in our sensing and IoT business. Our research chemicals business is supporting scientists around the world in the research, development and production of COVID-19 test kits, therapies and the vaccines by prioritizing and ramping production of high-quality analytical products to meet their application needs. And we are offering expedited support services to our pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical customers in our Aclar business to help facilitate faster healthcare packaging decisions for COVID-19 oral solid medicine. We have already mentioned that many actions were taken to meet increased demands for personal protective equipment, including masks, eyewear, and face shields. In both, Building Technologies and Process Solutions, we see strong demand for cyber security and have demands for remote access and monitoring for buildings and plants as people increasingly work from remote locations. Also in HBT, we have a suite of healthy building capabilities ready to deploy for customers, who are focused on the health and well-being of their building’s occupants. In SPS, there is strong demand for warehouse automation and supply chain analytics driven by surging e-commerce. And finally, in Aerospace, as passengers return to normal flying behaviors, to really increase focus on passenger health and safety, which dovetails nicely with our leadership in the environmental control systems for aircraft. We are also offering creative solutions to airlines and airports to protect passengers and to restore confidence in flying. So although the macro environment is creating challenges, it is also creating new customer needs that we’re well-equipped to address. With that, let’s wrap up on Slide 11. This quarter represents the first of what will be some challenging times ahead. We exceeded our segment profit, segment margin and earnings commitment with EPS growth of 15%, despite the substantial challenges we faced. We remain cautious as the magnitude and final impact of COVID-19 pandemic and OPEC+ dispute is unknown. As a result, there is significant uncertainty around commercial aerospace, oil and gas and short cycle demand, which we expect will meaningfully impact the second quarter. However, we have a diversified portfolio and significant balance sheet strength to provide resilience in these uncertain times. We acted quickly and prudently to ensure the health and safety of our employees, continuing to serve our customers and protecting our shareholders in response to COVID-19 pandemic. We took decisive actions to reduce our cost base, optimize working capital and further bolster our strong balance sheet and liquidity. We continue to actively monitor the COVID-19 impact on our operations and we’re confident in our ability to manage through the market volatility. We’re playing a critical role in keeping medical professionals safe through expanded production of N95 masks other PPE needs, sensors for medical equipment and ventilators and new production of hand sanitizers. Despite the challenging times, we remain committed to our strategic initiatives in the Honeywell Connected Enterprise, supply chain transformation and Honeywell Digital. And we’ll continue investing in our future through breakthrough initiatives, new product introductions, next-generation innovation across our entire portfolio. I am proud of everyone at Honeywell, who is working hard to adapt and deliver in this challenging environment. I am confident we will emerge from this crisis even stronger than ever. With that, Mark, let’s move to Q&A.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you, Darius. Darius, Greg and Torsten are now available to answer your questions. Savannah, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning, Steve.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
So just on kind of the second quarter color, I appreciate that. You guys have a gross margin of around, kind of, mid-30s or whatever it is. Should we expect, because of the significant kind of drop off here, that and a little bit more of a back half weighting on these cost saves, but you decrement to kind of a little bit more than that on a headline kind of segment profit basis in 2Q, just trying to kind of get an idea of the– deleveraging you’re kind of expecting in the business. Is there anything in the mix that would move that around? Just curious on that front and then would you expect that, that is kind of the low point of the year, given that this should kind of – all this economic stuff should begin to kind of heal a bit and then the cost saves come in?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, Steve, a couple to that – I mean in terms of Q2, yes, I mean I think we expect our worst decrementals for the year in Q2. I mean, obviously we’re in the middle of some cost actions, we’re doing that. We expect Q2 to be the most depressed from a GDP perspective or sort of underlying assumptions here, and I emphasize the word assumptions, is that GDP Q2 will be the worst, improve in Q3 and improve in Q4. So obviously, our margins will kind of follow that trend. Q2 will be the bottom, we expect some level of improvement in Q3 and further in Q4. That’s sort of the overall trend. We can’t give a level of precision on this because obviously some of the cost actions, timing of that, that’s still a little bit not totally within our control and – but we’re taking aggressive actions, not just with the Phase 1 that was discussed, but we’re also looking in Phase 2, which is going to be deployed – well, finalized and deployed within the next 60 days for certain.
Steve Tusa:
Got it. So I guess you’re not really kind of commenting on something you could hold around that, maybe a little bit higher than that gross margin rate. Just kind of help frame that for us.
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I mean, clearly, our Q2 decrementals will be worse. I mean that’s – and then they’ll start improving from that. I don’t know that I can give you any more precision than that, I mean it’s...
Steve Tusa:
Okay.
Darius Adamczyk:
Otherwise, it would – essentially providing guidance.
Steve Tusa:
Right. And then just on the buyback, you guys talked about kind of completing your 2020 program, but obviously your balance sheet is in good shape. I mean, I don’t know where you bought back the stock this quarter, but are you – do you have kind of capacity and are you willing that, as you get better visibility on the second half, that you could be opportunistic in the event things pull back again?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, obviously, we have the liquidity and cash is not a concern for us. I mean, given our position, balance sheet, the term loan we took on. So I mean, we have a lot of optionality in the second half. I mean, I wouldn’t expect much in the second quarter. I mean, I think this is the time to kind of assess the situation, see what’s happening, see what’s going on in the medical arena, see if the markets are turning around. So I wouldn’t expect much here in the Q2 timeframe, but we have a lot of optionality in the second half to potentially get back in the market. But we’ll see. I think that we’re going to kind of hold – tap on the brakes here in Q2. See what happens, implement our – both our growth plans and I emphasize the growth plans, because I think that there are some opportunities even with this crisis. Obviously, also execute the cost plans as well, because that’s what you have to do in this environment and it’s the reality and then we’ll relook at capital allocation as it relates to buybacks and so on as we move into Q3 and beyond.
Steve Tusa:
Got it. Sorry, one more way to go about this. For the year, are the cost saves enough to kind of hold the decrement in and around your gross margin? Is that kind of what these – what kind of the cost saves are aimed to do?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think it’s too early to tell, Steve, because we still haven’t fully quantified the Phase 2 impact.
Greg Lewis:
And we don’t know what the revenue reduction is going to be, frankly, though.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So the problem with giving you a number here is that we’re operating with two or three different variables, all of which could move dramatically. So then you get down to a guess and, as Honeywell, we don’t guess. I mean, when we say something, we do it, which was evidenced by our Q1 delivery of segment profit.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, appreciate it. I had to try. Thanks a lot.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Your next question will come from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Scott.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Davis:
Hope everybody is surviving okay.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hanging in there.
Scott Davis:
Good to hear your voice at least, Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
Everybody is doing well.
Scott Davis:
Good. I guess just a little bit of follow-up on the balance sheet question from Steve. I mean, you’re in a great position and buybacks is one element, but M&A is another. Is there an active pipeline you can continue to work? Is it just too impossible to even think about doing deals right now or is there something maybe for later in the year? Just some thoughts on that.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, well, I mean as you can imagine, a lot of the M&A activity is kind of a little bit of on pause. I think, as being a buyer, that’s probably a good thing, because I don’t want to be necessarily be buying off of 2019 comps. I don’t think that makes a lot of sense. But given our balance sheet, which is in great position. Yes, I think that this is an area which could be an opportunity in the second half of the year. I think the valuation should and will change, and that’s pretty obvious. But whenever you have a sudden change in economic conditions, like we do now, which really flipped, I mean, they literally flipped from the beginning of March. At the end of March, we’re sitting in a dramatic position. It takes a little bit of time of reality for [dollars] [ph] to sink in terms of what the valuation should be. I mean everybody still wants to value their business off of 2019 figures and that’s just isn’t realistic anymore, and you kind of have to look forward rather than look backward.
Scott Davis:
Yes, could not agree more. Just a point of clarification, you’ve got this $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion cost out, it looks like it’s more of kind of a shorter-term stuff. And then you have this $375 million to $500 million repositioning charges. Should we think about those as kind of for short-term and then the repositioning as for structural stuff? Is there any way to reconcile as part of that cost out in the $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, let me give you a little color on that, which is, don’t think of that as mostly short-term. Think about that $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, 30% to 40% of that is roughly short-term, but the rest of it is permanent. So that’s – it’s not all just short term stuff. And I think you should think about the Phase 2 actions. It’s not all permanent, but majority permanent.
Scott Davis:
Very helpful. Okay. Good luck, guys. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Scott.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on Aerospace, 25% decline in second quarter, I think, quite a bit better than a lot of the peers that have guided…
Greg Lewis:
More than – just, Andrew, more than 25%. It’s not...
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Just to be clear, yes, it’s not at 25%, it’s more than.
Andrew Obin:
More than 25%, so I’m just trying to figure, I think your peers have sort of been guiding more 30s, 40s, 50s. So just any color between the pieces within Aerospace, what’s happening into the second quarter, and I know you have provided some? And also, how does it work out sequentially through the year? Is the second quarter the bottom or is it going to get worse?
Greg Lewis:
So what you’re seeing for us, of course, is that we’ve got 40% roughly of our Aerospace businesses, Defense and Space, and that’s continuing to grow. They grew 7% in the first quarter and we see a nice growth trajectory in Q2 as well. And it really is in the commercial side of the business that we’re going to see a substantial acceleration of that growth rate coming down. So – and again, relative to the back half of the year, as Darius described, we expect the second quarter to be the worst it’s going to get, but to be honest, we don’t really know. And that’s again part of the reason why we’re not giving full year guidance. We’re telling you the best we can see here out in the very short term, 90 days and all of the aspects of what happens with the health crisis, when do people go back and fly again, that is not something that is very clear to anyone, including us.
Darius Adamczyk:
And just to add to that, I mean...
Andrew Obin:
Just a follow-up on free cash flow, any big one-time items that cap cash flow down year-over-year and ability to release working capital down the line? Thank you very much.
Greg Lewis:
It was mostly receivables. Our collections were down year-on-year. Again as – particularly, as we got down to the last few weeks of March, they slowed dramatically. You can imagine there were some places where people weren’t there to actually be able to execute payments and other customers are beginning to get a little bit skittish with their payments as well. So that’s really the major story for the quarter and we absolutely are going to do all the things Darius described on working capital, including readjusting our supply plans to these new realities from the standpoint of our inventory plan and that’s going on as we speak.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator:
And next, we’ll hear from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe...
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey, good morning.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Maybe just a first question around the SPS segment. So I think it’s the one segment, where it looks like you’re guiding for a narrower decline, perhaps, in the second quarter year-on-year versus what we’ve seen in the first quarter. Just wanted to check that’s correct. And then within that, understood that Intelligrated is a swing factor, going from minus to plus year-on-year in Q2. Maybe help us understand your assumptions about the rest of SPS in terms of safety and the rest of Productivity Solutions and whether what you’re seeing already in April does tally up with that down over 5% guide.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, on SPS, I mean, you should think about a couple of businesses accelerating for a couple of – next couple of quarters, one being Intelligrated. I mean, our backlog there is tremendous and continues to grow. So that’s – we expect to see growth in Intelligrated, obviously, the demand on e-commerce is going to become more acute, not less acute, and we have an orders positions in the backlog and even our frontlog, that looks extraordinarily appealing. So that’s a business – obviously, we’ve captured a tremendous amount of business in PP&E, it’s – and that business is going to accelerate more or less every single month as we move forward through the year. So we expect to see growth. And then modest decline in some of the other businesses, all those sensing and IoT will see growth and some of the healthcare oriented sensors. There are other segments that it’s exposed to like Aerospace that are obviously going to be a decline. So that’s going to be – our Productivity Products business, kind of, low-single-digit, kind of, decline is, kind of, what we’re expecting. Some of those segments are going to do pretty well, transportation, logistics and healthcare, retail is not. So that’s kind of how we see that one. So, overall, I mean, we do expect SPS for the year to be our healthiest and strongest SPG and I think it’s – we could even see growth in that SPG even this year.
Julian Mitchell:
Very helpful, thank you. And my second question, maybe just a broader one, not so much Q2 but a broader one around the PMT segment. That segment managed to ride the 2015, 2016 energy downturn remarkably well. Just wondered if you saw more pressure maybe in this downturn versus that one because of the aspect around gasoline consumption being down in different markets and maybe more pressure as well in Process Solutions because of extra mid and downstream CapEx cuts and how much of the fixed cost out, maybe something from Torsten, is on that can help in PMT offset this severe revenue drop.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. PMT is going to be challenged for the segments that are oil and gas oriented and obviously we have exposure in both UOP and HPS. I remember the 2015, 2016s, because I ran that business at that time, it wasn’t that much fun. But I do worry about a couple of factors here. The first one is, there is just no demand. I mean, if you think about what comes out of refinery, whether it’s jet fuel, whether it’s gasoline and so on, the world needs to go back to work and start functioning again. Because no one is flying, very few countries in the world are reopening, so there is very little gasoline and fuel consumption. Price of oil is highly depressed if you look at it. If I remember correctly, the lowest price of oil that I seem to recall back in the 2015, 2016 timeframe was about $27, $28 a barrel. We’re substantially south of that. So it’s going to be a challenging time for PMT. We’re going to be taking some – we already are taking and we’ll be taking even more cost reductions to align with the demand. And you even heard some recent announcements as early as today with Exxon and Chevron further cutting back CapEx. So we have to adjust to the reality of today and focus on a lot of our services and a lot of our digital business to drive growth and the segments that are still growing because we do participate in the pharma segment, we have some play in food and beverage, pharmaceuticals and so on. So it’s not all doom and gloom. I mean, clearly it’s going to be a challenged time for PMT for a portion of that business, not the entire business and we have to align that reality and adjust our cost base to what we anticipate it will be.
Julian Mitchell:
Right. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next, we’ll hear from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just a couple of quick ones from me, if I could. First, just back on the cost reduction actions. The $375 million to $500 million of restructuring actions is the same figure that you used back in January. But now we’re looking at this additional $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion of cost, of which 60% to 70% is structural. So, it would seem to me that, that does require a heavier lift on actual restructuring spend. So could you just kind of line that up for me and then provide a little bit more color on what the Phase 2 might actually be?
Greg Lewis:
Sure. So, Jeff, couple of things. Number one, the $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, about $200 million of that is carry-over restructuring from the prior year. So it’s not a 100% incremental. And you’re right, I mean, we guided a pretty sizable repositioning capacity as we always do, because we’re always building pipeline around repositioning. That’s been one of the things that’s continue to feed our Productivity delivery over many, many years. And so what you’re seeing here is, we just accelerated a substantial amount of that into the first quarter and the second quarter mainly to drive direct and indirect cost reductions to combat this situation. So that capacity has always been there to deal with the pipeline as it gets created. We’ve just now deployed it or about to deploy it into some very specific things around direct and indirect cost reductions in the near-term.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. And then maybe just one other thing to add to that is a portion of that cost savings is also in indirect costs. So as we think about 2021, obviously, as you reduce your indirect costs, that doesn’t require really much of any restructuring. So we don’t anticipate going back to 2019 indirect spending levels in 2021. That’s probably not realistic. So part of that savings that we’ll see is going to live through in 2021. It’s going to be someplace between what we’re going to come back in 2020 and what it was in 2019. So part of that is going to be a carry-over.
Jeff Sprague:
And when you think about this Phase 2, is this things that you had really already on the shelf Torsten was working on and this is also just a significant acceleration or you – this reflects kind of a new broader reevaluation of just your cost structure and the current situation?
Darius Adamczyk:
No, I mean, look, we wanted to do, back all the way in the March timeframe is react quickly and decisively because the world really changed in the month of March. So our Phase 1 plan was things that we could do it very quickly, very decisively, some – moving up some restructuring, some of the reduced work weeks, pay reductions, all those kinds of things. The Phase 2 stuff is because we don’t think that things like Aerospace are going to return to normal next year. I mean, I don’t know if it’s a two-year window or three-year window, you’ve heard others opine on that, but I don’t think that that’s a short-term. So particularly in Aerospace and PMT, we’re going to have to align our cost base to the realities of what we’re likely to experience in 2021 and hopefully not beyond, but maybe beyond. So Phase 2 results see a further realization of what the markets may look like in the future and our realignment of cost base, more of a permanent realignment to adjust to that reality.
Jeff Sprague:
Let’s do some another really quick follow-up just on Aero, you gave us the flight hour numbers, I mean, typically we think is some kind of multiplier to that. Can you maybe give us a little color or you can just – what the last six weeks have looked like in aftermarket? I would assume it’s tracking down more than those flight hour declines, but hard to tell, obviously, from my seat.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, I would say, Jeff, from an aftermarket perspective, it’s definitely accelerated in the first – I would say, the last six weeks, for sure. I mean, the end of March, in particular, started to see some pretty substantial slowdown. So when we think about it, in the second quarter, we’re going to have some substantial reductions, probably greater than the flight hour reductions that I mentioned earlier in the discussion. So probably greater than 50% types of aftermarket down in the ATR segment in particular.
Jeff Sprague:
Great, thanks for the color. Best of luck.
Operator:
Next, we’ll hear from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks, good morning. Covered a lot of ground already, appreciate the color. I think this is a question for Greg, but this is strategic as well, but obviously, you’ve got a fair amount of exposure to some fairly distressed customers, airlines, commercial aero customers, refineries, et cetera. So how are you thinking about flexibility, credit risk and also pricing? Are you seeing significant concessions on pricing or requests for pricing concessions and then how you’re dealing with that? Thanks.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. Yes, so I can tell you that we are in active dialog with our customer base and particularly in those two segments, as you mentioned, because they are hurting. So they’re – customers are coming back to us and talking with us about ways in which we can work together to ensure that they are able to navigate through this environment. And so we’re going through what you would expect a disciplined company to do. We’re doing, not only direct dialog with some of those larger customers but we’re also doing a substantially deeper credit risk assessment on our whole portfolio, and in cases where we need to do things like pay-before-shipments or require cash before orders are taken, we’re doing it. But we’ve got a – that’s a nuanced strategy because you’ve got to be – you have to have consideration about the strategic customers that you’re dealing with. So that’s – it’s an ongoing activity. I will tell you that it’s got the senior most leadership attention. These are not decisions that are being taken down in low levels of the organization. Each of the SPGs, Presidents and CFOs and Darius and myself are having direct dialog on some of these larger customers in particular. So it’s going to be a challenge. There is no doubt about it. I don’t think we’ve seen the impact in the markets yet of what could happen from solvency risk standpoint and I think that’s yet to play out, but we’re taking appropriate actions as you would expect us to go do to manage through that.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks, Greg. And then a follow-on to that. A lot of companies have pulled their earnings guidance, but some have opined on free cash flow. And obviously, the biggest input to free cash flow is earnings. But can you just maybe describe some of the levers you’re pulling on working capital and some initiatives to maybe drive free cash flow conversion higher over the balance of this year?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, I mean, the two biggest areas we’re focusing on, as you can imagine, is inventory and receivables. So we’ve got full court press on with our receivables teams and the SPGs, as I mentioned, to make sure that our collections activities are robust and then Torsten and his team, as Darius highlighted, have instituted a weekly executive sign up all the way to the Honeywell level and that’s going to be a big focus for us and I’ll let maybe Torsten say a few words about what we’re doing there.
Torsten Pilz:
Yes, I mean the main focus area is to make sure that we follow demand very, very closely and be very reactive and fast in our actions. I think that’s the main change that we instituted over the last couple of weeks.
Darius Adamczyk:
One other thing, Nigel, though, I will tell you, though, that we are not planning on cutting growth CapEx. We’re in a strong cash position. Those projects are high return projects. I’m not planning on sacrificing the future just to cut back on CapEx and I – that’s probably something that we’re going to continue to fund.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, thanks a lot, guys. Good luck.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next, we’ll hear from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Deane.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Deane Dray:
I appreciate hearing all the specifics on the Honeywell’s COVID responses and maybe just to pick up right where you left off, Darius, if you could, you said you wouldn’t cut growth CapEx, but will there be any cuts to CapEx on the maybe maintenance CapEx? And could you size that for us, please?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, there might be, because obviously we’re not operating our facilities as much as we do. Some of them are operating at reduced work hours obviously to align with some of the volumes that we’re seeing, obviously the maintenance part just might be a bit smaller somewhat. There might be some trims around some of the maintenance budgets just – that’s totally aligned to production, but there’ll be probably some modest reductions in CapEx, but we are not planning on reducing investments in future growth and future MPI projects.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. And the N95 masks is a good example. I mean you can imagine we’re putting capital to work right now to go do that. So again, absolutely going back and scrubbing our capital plan and making the appropriate adjustments, but to Darius’ point, I mean, growth is going to continue to be funded.
Deane Dray:
That’s really helpful. And then just last one for me, if we could talk a bit about potential secular changes, it might be a bit too early, but there has been a lot of discussion about reshoring and specifically shortening supply change and some of the sensitivities there, you’ve obviously responded with the increase in the N95 mask, but since we have Torsten here, maybe we can hear about how Honeywell is responding. Do you think reshoring of supply chains is something that will be a meaningful driver? And how is Honeywell getting positioned? Thanks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think it is a little bit too early to tell at this juncture as to what we’ll do, but you have to remember that our strategy always has and is kind of a regional for regional or local for local production change. I mean, if anything, I’d like to accelerate that. I’d like to be really local for local. I mean we’re mostly there and I think that’s still very much the right strategy. You got to produce in the countries in which you operate and leveraging those supply chains and operate locally. So I’m not sure that’s a dramatic change from where we have been, if anything, it’s probably an acceleration of the strategy that we already had.
Deane Dray:
Great, thank you. And best of luck to everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next, we’ll hear from Peter Arment with Baird. Please go ahead.
Peter Arment:
Yes, thanks. Thanks, good morning, Darius, Greg, Mark. Darius, thank you for everything you’re doing regarding all the mask and the PPE stuff, it’s truly great. Just maybe a question on Aerospace, just to circle back more of a higher level question, but just your installed base of equipment and given the aftermarket is so important, you’ve always been kind of representative of kind of the global fleet in terms of an installed base. How are you thinking about like aftermarket beyond this? I mean do you think there’s going to be some structural impairment because of the heavy retirements? Probably an unfair question, but I just figured I’d give it a shot.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, well, I think, a lot of that depends upon how quickly we think the air traffic will return. And there is a little bit of a trade-off where airlines want to dispose of cash to acquire new aircraft or will they want to operate the current fleet to maintain cash flexibility and retain those cash. So – and then also the timing matters, too. So is that something we are thinking about? Sure, absolutely. But exactly in our – there’s kind of two different theories. One theory is you retire more aircraft in bringing new ones, okay, because of the efficiencies and so on. That makes sense. But another theory is, okay, you may not want to necessarily, as an airline, part with a lot of cash and further spend it right now when you are in cash distressed state. So we’ll see which way it goes. I think the most important thing to remember and where we’re spending all our time and energy is providing solutions for airlines and even airports in terms of how we can regain passenger confidence to fly again. Because when people start sitting at home and we probably start opening up the economies, the single-most important thing that can happen for this industry is people gaining the confidence to fly again. And that’s really where we’re spending our time and energy.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate the details. Thanks again.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next, we’ll hear from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. Go ahead.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi, good morning, all.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey, Josh.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
First question, yes, can you hear me?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Can you hear me?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
All right. So I guess first question, impact on – of customer shutdowns and kind of this inability to do service or get on-site with some folks. I appreciate that we’re still kind of operating in some of these loose bands. But relative to that, down greater than 15%, how much of that is just kind of an inability to get the work done, whether it’s in the building or refinery, et cetera?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, Josh, it’s actually – it’s really hard to parse it and be able to say for sure. I mean, we think, we probably lost 2 to 3 points of growth in the first quarter due to some of these issues. And to be honest, it’s not like I know what they’re going to be. Until people movement becomes freer, we’re going to struggle with service and project execution in the Solutions businesses. While social distancing norms become clear in the factories, that’s going to have an influence over capacity and attendance and so on. But it’s near impossible for us to put a number on that, which is probably why we shared greater than – down greater than this type of a number as opposed to some level of precision, because it’s changing almost daily and it’s different in every region of the country. It’s going to be different in certain States in the U.S. And so I wish I could provide you something more precise, but frankly that’s part of the reason why our level of visibility is precluding us from giving more precise guidance.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Understood. And then just a follow-up on just raised question on the aftermarket versus flight hours. If I think about past downturns in air traffic, any cannibalization risk that comes out the other side and kind of delays that recovery in your business relative to flight hours or do you tend to move in lockstep in both directions? I know, everyone’s product portfolio kind of lends itself to different exposures on that.
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I think there is just a lead lag effect, right. I mean, I think there is clearly a correlation on the aftermarket to the flight hours flown, both on the BG and air transport side. There is probably a little bit of a delay in terms of recurrence and growth in flight hours and that being exhibited in the aftermarket consumption. But other than that, I think that correlation is generally there. And as you see flight hours return to whether it’s in the business segment or air transport, you should start to see aftermarket return, probably with some lagging effects.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, I think as you described earlier, Darius, that the bigger variable will be the new plane, old plane situation. If people are buying lots of new planes, that’s going to have a different effect. If they’re running the older equipment and not taking new deliveries, that’s going to affect that as well. So these are some of the variables that we’ll have to see how they play out here over the coming quarters.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Okay. Thanks for the detail. Stay well, guys.
Mark Bendza:
Savannah, we’ll take one more question, please.
Operator:
And we’ll take our final question from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Mark Bendza:
Let’s move on to the next one please, Savannah.
Operator:
Okay. And then we will hear from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hey, good morning, everyone, and thanks for the time. Darius, on HBT, a large portion is exposed to commercial construction. What are you hearing from your customers in terms of service versus products? How are they doing? How do you think about a recovery? I think you noted, you think it’s a short-term demand issue. Do you think we’d see any sort of structural change for commercial demand?
Darius Adamczyk:
No, I mean, I’m just going to answer your second question first, I don’t see any structural change for commercial demand. I mean I actually think there is an opportunity for our HBT business because what CEO of any commercial building isn’t going to want to provide a safer cleaner environment for his or her employees. So I think that in terms of overall commercial construction, I don’t see any structural change. Short-term is a little bit tougher to predict, as you can imagine throughout the world, you have different rules and regulations. Some region, some states, some countries are allowing construction to keep going. Others have put more tight restrictions and it’s not allowed and as the world kind of comes back, we’re going to have a little bit better visibility and actually access both to service on these buildings, as well as to products and solutions. So it’s a bit of a mixed story, but it’s more or less realigned to the world, kind of, returning to some level of normalcy and it’s – it really vary throughout the world in terms of – in some places construction is moving, others it’s in a pause state.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
And then I guess my second question, maybe can you talk about what sort of recovery you’re starting to see it in Asia and China by segment. How quickly are some of these businesses coming back?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think it’s a little bit of a mixed story and maybe I’ll use China as an example. So as you can imagine, in China, January and February were extraordinarily slow, the business was – there wasn’t really much of anything happening. March was better. March, we saw a bounce back, which was encouraging, but April has been not horrible but soft. I mean, think about negative single-digit kind of business. So I think the assumption that China is back to normal, at least based only on April data point may not be correct. Aviation is just starting to pick up in China and this is a little bit of what I talked about before, which is, we have to get the passenger comfortable to fly again because just because you lift some of the restrictions, that doesn’t mean that people are going to jump on airplanes the second day after that. So there’s got to be a real level of focus and effort to make sure that they come back and that’s what we’re working with a lot of our airport and airline customers on some of the solutions. And we have some really good ideas to help them to think through that.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Okay, great, thanks for the color.
Operator:
And that concludes today’s question-and-answer session. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for any additional or closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
I want to thank our shareowners for their continued support of Honeywell. These are challenging and uncertain times for all and we remain focused on continuing to perform for our shareowners, our customers and our employees. While we cannot predict how the COVID-19 pandemic will ultimately impact our business and the global economy, we are well-positioned to weather the storm with our balanced portfolio, track record of execution and strong balance sheet. We’ve managed through uncertain times before and we will do so again. While 2020 will be challenging, I continue to be excited about the future for Honeywell. Our operational rigor will serve us well, given the near-term economic outlook. Thank you all for listening and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
Thank you. That does conclude today’s teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mark Bendza, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you, Abby. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s fourth quarter 2019 earnings and 2020 outlook conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. For this call, references to adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and free cash flow conversion and effective tax rate exclude the impacts from separation costs related to the two spin-offs of our Homes and Transportation Systems businesses in 2018 as well as pension mark-to-market adjustments and U.S. tax legislation, except where otherwise noted. Comparisons are to the prior year period, unless otherwise noted. This morning, we will review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2019; discuss our full year outlook; and share our guidance for the first quarter of 2020. As always, we’ll leave time for your questions at the end. And with that, I’ll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark, and good morning everyone. Let’s begin on Slide 2. We are very pleased with our results in 2019. We’ve finished a great year of another strong quarter. In the fourth quarter, we delivered $2.06 adjusted earnings per share above the high end of the guidance range, 130 basis points of margin expansion and maybe most importantly $2.3 billion of adjusted free cash flow resulting in the fourth quarter conversion of 154%. With this conclusion to the year, we met or exceeded our financial commitments on all metrics in 2019, managing through a volatile environment and delivering adjusted earnings per share of $8.16, $0.06 above the high end of our initial 2019 guidance. Despite the challenging broad macro environment in 2019, we grew organic sales 5%, driven by strength across – on much of our portfolio throughout the year. Growth was driven by Commercial Aerospace, Defense, Process Solutions and Building Products. We also had strong orders for HPS mega projects, UOP equipment and Defense and overall a 100% in calibrator orders during the fourth quarter. These robust orders contribute to a 10% year-over-year increase in long cycle backlog. Additionally, in 2019, Honeywell Connected Enterprise drove double-digit software growth. We expanded segment margin 150 basis points or 70 basis points, excluding the impact of the 2018 spinoff, both 10 basis points above the high end of our 2019 guidance. Our growth combined with productivity rigor and commercial excellence, drove margin expansion in Aerospace, Building Technologies and Performance Materials and Technologies. We generated $6.3 billion of adjusted free cash flow for the year, exceeding the high end of our initial guidance by approximately $300 million and resulting in 105% free cash flow conversion or 114% free cash flow conversion, excluding pension income. We continue to make smart investments in our businesses, people and communities. We deployed $7.8 billion of capital in 2019 across share repurchases, higher dividends, high return CapEx and two acquisitions including the Rebellion Photonics, a provider of innovative, intelligent visual gas monitoring solutions, which we closed in the fourth quarter. This also include over 10 investment by Honeywell Ventures for over $50 million deployed in 2019 bringing our total venture investments to-date to over $75 million. We continued to have our robot pipeline of M&A opportunities with significant balance sheet capacity deployed. We launched a new brand campaign to highlight some of the most exciting innovations and we’re ranked number 13 on the Forbes Magazine list of the World’s Most Reputable Companies for Corporate Responsibility. Lastly, we continue to make progress in our breakthrough and transformation initiatives, which I’ll cover next in more detail. Let’s turn to Slide 3. We continue to make significant progress on three key initiatives in support of our transformation to a software industrial company. In 2019, we’ve commercialized Honeywell Forge enterprise performance management software, which helps companies in a variety of industries gather, gain insights from and ultimately autonomously control their operations, drive efficiency and safety. Honeywell Forge helped drive double-digit connected software growth this year. Additionally, HCE is leading their transition to more recurring revenue models across the company, has delivered key wins and stronger customer relationships throughout 2019 and will continue to drive growth across Honeywell, including a 20% connected software growth compounded annual growth rate over five years. We also made great strides in our Integrated Supply Chain transformation. We established supply based management strategy for 11 categories across the enterprise, enabled our businesses to take actions to substantially reduce their distribution manufacturing footprint, drove improvements in sourcing productivity, and in the fourth quarter we began seeing broad improvements in our inventory. We are on track to achieve our long-term targets, including $0.5 billion of run rate benefits, and a $1 billion reduction in inventory. On Honeywell Digital, which is foundational to running Honeywell; with data driven decision making, we’ve matured our data management practices, digitized key processes through the deployment of new technology platforms, rationalized over 500 software applications, cleansed 5.2 million critical master data records, eliminated 20 ERP systems and reduced websites by 58%. When complete, we expect our digital transformation to deliver $0.5 billion of run rate benefits across sales, productivity and working capital improvements. We are very pleased with the progress we’ve made with each of our transformation initiatives in 2019 and we’ll continue to build on this momentum in 2020 as we transform into a software industrial. In summary, we had a terrific 2019, both in our short-term operating performance and longer term transformation agenda, and we’re setting ourselves up for a strong 2020 and beyond. Now let me turn it over to Greg on Slide 4 to discuss our fourth quarter results and provide our 2020 outlook.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Darius, and good morning everyone. For the fourth quarter, we grew organic sales by 2%, driven by 7% organic growth in Aerospace, as well as continued growth in our Process Automation, UOP and Building Management Products businesses. SPS contracted during the quarter, but the turnaround of productivity progress – product is progressing. Intelligrated sales improved sequentially, but they were down year-over-year as expected due to tough comps, compared to nearly 50% growth in the fourth quarter of 2018. Importantly, orders were up 100% as the major project orders we anticipated in Intelligrated materialized to set us up well for 2020. Our organic growth combined with commercial and operational excellence and the benefits from the portfolio enhancements that we made in 2018 drove segment margin expansion of 130 basis points, with segment margin again exceeding 21% this quarter. Excluding the favorable impact of the spinoffs, segment margins expanded by 90 basis points, which was 40 basis points above the high end of our guidance, driven by our strong commercial excellence and productivity programs. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.6, up 11%, excluding the impact of the spinoff and above the high end of our guidance. In addition to strong segment profit performance, earnings per share benefited from lower share count due to our buyback program, and a lower adjusted effective tax rate, which more than offset our planned lower pension income. During the quarter, we generated $2.3 billion of adjusted free cash flow with conversion of 154% on the strength of improvements in working capital, primarily from cash collections and inventory reductions. As Darius highlighted, we’re beginning to see the effects of our supply chain transformation as demonstrated by inventory improvements in the fourth quarter. This resulted in full year adjusted free cash flow of $6.3 billion and conversion of 105% above the high end of our guidance range. We continue to execute our capital deployment strategy in the fourth quarter. We deployed $644 million to dividends and $750 million to repurchases of Honeywell shares, bringing the total share repurchase for the year to $4.4 billion, resulting in a 3% share reduction, which is above the commitment of at least 1% share count reduction that we highlighted at the beginning of the year. We also completed the acquisition of Rebellion Photonics and funded two additional Honeywell Venture investments. Now let’s turn to Slide 5 and talk about the segments. Starting with Aerospace, sales up 7% on an organic basis and orders were up double digits, finishing an outstanding year for the business overall. Defense & Space grew 9%, led by increased aftermarket volumes on key U.S. DoD programs and global demand for guidance and navigation systems. Backlog for Defense & Space is up double digits. Additionally, demand for Honeywell Forge drove double-digit JetWave growth in defense. As you recall, we launched JetWave for military platforms in 2018 and we continue to be excited about the connected growth opportunities there. In Commercial OE, sales were up 4% organically, driven by increased deliveries across major OE business aviation platforms, partially offset by lower air transport sales. Commercial aftermarket grew 6% organically driven by strong demand in air transport while business jet aftermarket sales were approximately flat. Aerospace segment margin expanded 270 basis points driven by productivity, commercial excellence and strong aftermarket volumes. 2019 was another outstanding year for the Aerospace team. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, sales were down 11% on an organic basis, driven by lower sales volumes and productivity products, the impact of major systems project timing in Intelligrated, and lower demand for personal protective equipment. SPS segment margins contracted 330 basis points year-over-year to approximately 13%, similar to prior quarters as a result of the volume deleveraging productivity products and personal protective equipment. Within our Intelligrated warehouse automation business as we expected, sales were down double-digits due to difficult comps and the timing of several major systems projects. 4Q and 1Q are the two most difficult quarters that Intelligrated will face as sales were up nearly 50% in each of those comparable periods. As we discussed in our last call, the order’s pipeline has been robust for the second consecutive quarter, Intelligrated posted significant growth with orders up over 100%, which contributed to more than 30% increase in the backlog year-over-year. This positions the business well for 2020 as these major projects begin to drive growth starting in the second quarter and beyond. Importantly, Intelligrated’s aftermarket service businesses continue to benefit from our large and growing installed base with strong double-digit sales growth for life cycle support and services. In productivity products, we continue to see distributor destocking, but inventories are now approaching normalized levels and we expect the business to return to growth in 2020. We have taken significant actions to address the challenges in this business as we have discussed previously and we’re seeing improvements in our commercial operations as a result, which is reflected in the sequential sales growth compared to the third quarter of 2019. We’re optimistic that we’ll continue to see further improvements in the business throughout 2020. In the Safety business, organic sales for the quarter were down 5% as continued demand for our gas sensing products, was more than offset by decreased volumes of personal protective equipment and softer demand in the retail business. Moving to Honeywell Building Technologies, sales were up 3% organically, primarily driven by ongoing strength and commercial fire products in the U.S. Double-digit growth across our suite of building management products including double-digit growth in our connected software platforms and growth in security. That was partially offset by Building Solutions sales, which were down for the quarter as the client is in projects including the energy savings performance contracts business offset double-digit growth in the airport vertical. HBT segment margins expanded 170 basis points in the fourth quarter, driven by the favorable impact from the spin-offs of the homes business. Segment margins excluding the impact from spin accretion were approximately flat in the quarter as we – and we expect this to improve in 2020 as we continue to make progress towards our long-term margin targets for the business. Finally, in Performance Materials and Technologies, sales were up 3% on an organic basis. Process Solutions sales were up 6% organically, driven by strength across the automation portfolio and smart energy. Additionally, orders in the automation and projects businesses were up double digits allowing us to exit the year with a strong backlog notably in our global mega projects business, which was up double digits. In UOP, sales were up 3% organically, in petrochemical catalysts and our equipment business, partially offset by declines in gas processing due to fewer domestic cryo unit sales, as a result of the continuation of software midstream gas processing markets in the U.S. Backlog was up high single digits in UOP driven by strong double-digit growth in equipments, which carries lower margins as you know. Organic sales in Advanced Materials were down 4%, driven by lower volumes in pricing and flooring products due to the ongoing impact of the illegal HFC imports into Europe. Recent estimates suggest that these illegal imports are contributing annual emissions at least equivalent to that of 3.5 million cars. This means we take a forest the size of Portugal to capture all the illegal emissions. We continue to actively work in partnership with private industry, EU regulators, and EU member countries to address harmful illegal HFC imports. Increasing seizures of illegally important HFCs are encouraging, but they’re not yet meaningful enough reductions to the total illegal imports. While these efforts are ongoing, we’ll continue to experience pressure on HFC pricing and volumes for the remainder of Advanced Materials, electronic materials grew mid single-digits and packaging and composites was up high single-digits. This was partially offset by softer demand in additives and chemicals. So overall, PMT segment margins contracted by 80 basis points in the quarter driven by direct materials volumes, the mix of catalyst shipments and higher mix of UOP equipment partially offset by improvements in productivity. As we’ve discussed before, the mix of catalyst sales and equipment project timing in UOP has an outsized impact on margins quarter-to-quarter and for the full-year, PMT margins expanded 70 basis points. So overall, we capped off the year with a very strong fourth quarter performance and earnings, margin expansion and cash as well as strong orders resulting in a healthy backlog as we enter into 2020. Now, let’s turn to Slide 6 and discuss the markets and our 2020 outlook. As Darius mentioned in 2019, we managed through a challenging year, where trade tensions and reality of tariffs were constant. The uncertainty of Brexit interest rate policy and indications of a possible recession with signals like the inverted yield curve, weighed on markets. Today, some of those issues have started to resolve themselves with the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal now in place and a more clear path forward on Brexit, but many uncertainties remain as we begin 2020. There’s much more work to be done on the comprehensive long-term agreement between China and the U.S. Brexit has a conclusion; however, the execution of their exit from the European Union is yet to play out and ramifications aren’t fully known. Tensions in the Middle East have created the potential for market disruption. The recent health threat of the coronavirus is developing rapidly and how it will evolve it’s still unknown. And the highly-charged election year in the U.S. brings additional uncertainties for companies to manage through. In addition to that, we are facing discrete sales headwinds in aerospace as others are from the 737 MAX production delay in 2020, as Boeing has continued to recalibrate their expectations for its return to service and related production schedules. We are aligned with Boeing’s most recent communications that assumes the 737 MAX returns to service roughly mid-year; however, the situation remains fluid. So, while they’re perhaps fewer indications of a broader base recession today, there remains several challenging and potentially fast-changing dynamics that create uncertainty in the macro and cautious in our short cycle business outlook. With these factors, short cycle outcomes for the year will be difficult to forecast and you’ll see that we have a wider EPS guidance range than it’s typical for us due to the range of outcomes that could result. Our outlook assumes the Middle East remains relatively stable and that we can continue to deliver backlog and obtain new projects in the Middle East. We are assuming monetary policy remains stable and interest rates don’t rise, lending support to the economy and that the U.S. election does not delay investment. We have not estimated the material impact as the coronavirus becomes more significant, which has already impacting aviation in particular flight hours and could also have a broader negative impact on supply chains in the economy as was experienced with the SARS outbreak. We’ve incorporated the latest communicated build rates, as I mentioned, of the 737 MAX into our own revenue outlook. So, knock-on effects of the overall Aero supply chain are yet to play out. So, while we have confidence in our market positions and have prepared ourselves for the year ahead, it’s setting up as an equally and perhaps more uncertain years than the one we just completed. Given that, let’s move to Slide 7 and discuss the markets and the segment outlook. Starting with Aerospace & Defense remains strong, driven by stable budgets and we expect growth again in 2020, but in more moderate levels relative to the strong double digits we experienced in 2019. We continue to see healthy demand in business aviation, but we will have tougher comps and the business aviation OE. We expect the aftermarket demand across commercial aerospace will continue to grow driven by flight hours and retrofit modifications and upgrades as well as the impact of older equipment remaining in service as a result of the delays in the MAX. That will partially be offset by the ADS-B phase-out. However, Aero will have sales headwinds from the MAX production delays. We’re taking actions to try and mitigate this impact as best we can, including leveraging recent improvements in our supply base to accelerate production from our backlog, and we continue to monitor the MAX situation closely as you would expect. Additionally, the impact for our earnings potential due to the MAX will be somewhat muted as potential aftermarket offsets with their higher profit levels compared to OE sales, will provide some support for segment margins. As a result of these dynamics across aerospace, we’re expecting organic sales to be up low-to-mid single digits for the year as compared to the high single digits in the fourth quarter and the double-digit growth we experienced in the first report in 2019. Now turning to SPS, we expect strong e-commerce and warehouse distribution macro trends to continue as customers seek and implement differentiated warehousing solutions to meet increased demand. These dynamics contributed to the robust Intelligrated orders in the second half of 2019 that will fuel warehouse automation sales growth in 2020, and we continued to expect strong services growth from our expanding installed base. Excluding the warehousing market, industrial macro indicators remain weakened, which we expect will result in slower industrial safety sensing and IoT sales. Productivity products is executing their recovery plan as we mentioned and we continue to expect a turnaround in 2020 as destocking and with the return to growth expected in the second half of the year. Overall, we expect SPS organic sales to be approximately flat to up low single digits and we expect SPS margin to begin recovering in 2020, driven by improvements in productivity product margins, productivity actions, and enhanced growth in software and services. In HBT, following the spin of our Homes portfolio, our primary exposure is to the non-resi market, a construction market, and to the infrastructure and data center markets. While we’re continuing to monitor the outlook across construction today, we anticipate non-residential market overall to remain flat to up modestly in 2020 and we are expecting HBT organic sales to be down slightly to up low single digits. We expect strength in commercial fire and modest growth and security products to continue. In Building Solutions, we expect continued growth in airports vertical and we are focused on driving services growth to mitigate the impact of headwinds from lower energy performance contracts and software projects orders. building management system strength continues in the near-term, and driving better execution and pipeline development to deliver ongoing growth. The PMT entered 2020 with a healthy long-cycle backlog, up high single digits in both UOP and HPS, driven by robust 2019 orders for UOP equipment and HPS projects. The oil and gas market outlook is similar to recent trends with continued softness in the U.S. midstream gas processing market, but a continued demand for mega projects. Finally, with Advanced Materials, we expect continued growth from solstice in our flooring products business and better execution in specialty products. However, the illegal HFC imports into Europe continue to put pressure on growth, particularly for the first half of the year. Given these dynamics, in total, we expect PMT organic sales to be flat to up low single digits for the year. Overall, the strength of Honeywell is our diversified portfolio and we headed to 2020 with a healthy long-cycle backlog, combined with strong operational playbooks, which will enable us to perform in another tough macro backdrop. Now, let’s turn to slide 8 and talk about how these dynamics come together for our 2020 financial guidance. We have an effective strategy at Honeywell, which enables us to continuously deliver on our financial commitments and that is not changing in 2020. our focus continues to be on smart investments for the future new product development and breakthrough initiatives to fuel growth, all with ongoing productivity rigor, and commercial and operational excellence to drive it. These strengths embodied in our transformation initiatives, position us to deliver a solid year even with the unpredictability of the current market backdrop and uncertain short cycle macroenvironment. for 2020, we expect organic sales growth overall of 0% to 3%, which reflects our balance portfolio, diverse end market expectations, headwinds from the 737 MAX production delay and a cautious outlook on our short cycle businesses in this environment. We expect to expand margins 20 basis points to 50 basis points for the overall company consistent with our long-term framework. below-the-line pension and OPEB income in 2020 is expected to be approximately $830 million about – about a $200 million increase from the prior year or $0.20 of EPS, which I’ll discuss in more detail in the next slide. In addition to pension income, other key planning items to take note of include weighted average share count of approximately 718 million shares, repositioning charges of $375 million to $500 million as we continue to fund high return projects and the remaining below-the-line items to be in the range of $205 million to $230 million of expense. Combined, this results in below-the-line income in the range of $100 million to $230 million for the year. Finally, we expect an effective tax rate of approximately 21% to 22% for the year. All in, we’re guiding EPS to be $8.60 to $9 per share of 5% to 10% up – 5% to 10% adjusted, including the $0.20 benefit from higher pension income. We expect continued strong free cash flow generation with adjusted free cash flow of $5.7 billion to $6.2 billion to 2020, driven by high quality income growth and continued working capital improvements. compared to 2019, we expect approximately, $500 million to $600 million of headwinds from higher plan CapEx investments, an additional payroll cycle due to the calendar and anticipated environmental and other payments. This cash generation equates to adjusted free cash flow conversion of approximately 102% to 107% excluding pension income. We believe excluding the non-cash pension income impact better reflects our operating performance and enables more appropriate comparisons to our peers. We continue to have a strong balance sheet with significant capacity and desire to do more M&A as Darius mentioned. We do have a strong pipeline of opportunities, but in the absence of completing significant M&A, we’ll continue to deploy additional capital to the repurchases of Honeywell shares. Now, let’s turn to slide 9 to discuss our 2020 earnings per share bridge compared to 2019. as I noted earlier, we’re providing some slightly wider range than we typically do as a result of the number of variables that could impact the business over the next 12 months. Segment profit continues to be a key driver of our earnings growth, continued productivity improvements, commercial excellence, volume leverage, and ongoing benefits from previously funded repositioning, will contribute $0.10 to $0.45 per share. We expect our share repurchase program, which has as a base case, the delivery of at least a 1% additional share count reduction to result in a benefit of approximately $0.14 per share year-over-year. Our expected tax rate of 21% to 22% is a range of a $0.07 headwind to a $0.04 benefit to EPS. excluding pension income, below-the-line items are expected to be in a range of a $0.04 headwind to a $0.12 benefit per share, primarily driven by the range I mentioned on expected repositioning costs. The last item is the $0.20 increase from the higher pension income as a result of high investment returns in 2019 and lower discount rates in 2020. including that $0.20 tailwind, we expect earnings per share to be in the range of $8.60 to $9 as I mentioned previously. So, I’d like to take a moment just to discuss the pension dynamics in a little bit more detail. As we talked about previously, we have de-risked our pension plans and in 2019, approximately 50% of the plan assets were more conservative fixed-income like assets, the other half being in return-seeking assets. as a result of the strong equity markets in 2019, those return-seeking assets earned approximately 21% in the year, resulting in over $3 billion of an increase in our pension asset base compared to last year. This higher asset base combined with lower discount rates is driving higher income in 2020, even with lower rates of return expected. Our pension is now 110% funded and we continue to derisk that with approximately 60% of our plan assets; now, it’s fixed-income after 2020. so, in summary while we’re cautious about the macro backdrop and the short cycle outcomes are, once again, hard to predict. We entered the year with a healthy backlog in our long-cycle business. We have diversified end markets, a strong playbook, and a solid track record of execution and we’re prepared to deliver another strong year with growth primarily from continued segment profit performance and our capital deployment strategy. Now, let’s turn to slide 10 for a preview of the first quarter. For the first quarter, we expect organic sales to be in the range of down 2% to up 2%, organically driven by growth in aerospace, continued strength and building products, UOP equipment and process automation, offset by headwinds from SPS and some of the other short cycle components of our portfolio. Keep in mind, Q1 of 2019 with our strongest quarter of the year will be our most difficult comp. We expect commercial excellence, productivity rigor and the benefits from previously funded repositioning to drive continued segment profit and segment margin growth with 20 basis points to 50 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion resulting in segment margins in the range of 20.6 to 20.9 for the first quarter. In the Aerospace, we continue to see demandable commercial aerospace and U.S. defense, supported by robust orders, growth and firm backlogs as I discussed. However, as we’ve stated after five straight quarters of double-digit sales growth through 3Q 2019 and high single-digit growth in 4Q 2019. We expect organic sales growth rates to moderate in 2020. aero is facing sales headwinds as are others from Boeing’s most recent recalibrations of the 737 MAX production delays, which will contribute to the more moderate growth rates as we enter the year, although we plan to mitigate some of that impact by accelerating production for our backlog. In SPS, we expect distributor destocking to come to an end in productivity products, although return to growth will likely get second half outcome and we expect slow sales to continue in industrial safety. Intelligrated sales will be impacted by the project timing I mentioned in the first quarter due to a strong growth of approximately 50% last year at this time, but growth and robust orders in the second half of 2019, will contribute to more substantial sales growth in the following quarters. In Building Technologies, we expect strength and commercial fire and security products, driven by demand in the Americas as well as continued strength in airports. We continue to see infrastructure including airports and data center projects as opportunities for strong growth in HBT. However, we expect software project sales in energy and other verticals within building solutions as we begin the year. In Performance Materials and Technologies, we expect to see continued growth in products and services, and process automation and we expect a healthy demand for equipment in UOP. The headwinds in the Advanced Materials business from the legal imports of HFCs into Europe and lower specialty products demand driven by the slowdown in China, will persist in the early part of 2020. We expect the effective tax rate to be between 21% and 22% in the first quarter and average share count to be approximately 720 million shares. All of this results in earnings per share in the range of $2.02 to $2.07 representing growth of 5% to 8% earnings per share. In summary, well positioned going into the first quarter with plans in place and ongoing initiatives across all businesses to drive productivity and margin expansion to mitigate the impacts of the mixed macroenvironment and the headwinds in the tough times compared to a year ago. We also continue to have significant balance sheet flexibility to generate strong returns through share repurchases and opportunistic M&A. With that, I’d like to turn the call back over to Darius, who will wrap up on Slide 11.
Darius Adamczyk:
thanks, Greg. Overall, we are pleased with strong operational performance from our portfolio in 2019. We continue to execute our core priorities and we again, delivered on our commitment. We remain cautious on the macroenvironment of many factors, still very fluid for 2020 and significant uncertainty around short cycle demand of a balanced portfolio poised for continued performance despite macro headwinds and we continue to make significant progress of our transformation initiatives including Honeywell Connected Enterprise, Honeywell Digital, and our Integrated Supply Chain. Additionally, we’re bringing innovative and connected offerings to market to fuel growth, which combined of our strong execution track record positions us well for 2020 and beyond. With that Mark, let’s move to Q&A.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you, Darius. Darius and Greg are now available to answer your questions. Abby, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. And our first question is coming from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, guys. Good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Steve.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
Just on the free cash, you mentioned a few items obviously, stronger in 2019, you mentioned a few items influencing 2020, kind of disagree with using an adjusted conversion metric, ultimately, cash per share is what matters. But what is the – is there anything kind of flip in 2021, so is 2020 to be viewed as kind of the base for growth or is there anything, timing-wise, that was pulled into 2019 that influence 2020, and then 2021 is kind of a more normal base to grow off of?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So, we’ve always talked about our free cash flow conversion adjusted and we guided it last year, even in that, we have 95% to 100% adjusted. We highlighted the – both in our press release materials, both the way we had done previously adjusted and then we also adjusted for pension income, just to be transparent about both of those metrics, particularly with the increase in pension income going into 2020. So that’s really the – that’s what you’re seeing there in terms of – and both of those numbers are strongly above 100%. So, in terms of the 2019 into 2020 differences, what I tried to highlight in the – in the opening, Steve is really a couple of things. And first, we are going to spend a bit more CapEx as we go into 2020 and that’s in support of our transformation initiatives in the supply chain, some additional capacity for some new products. We also have just from a calendar perspective; we’re going to have an extra payroll cycle in 2020. So that’s just math and for us that’s, call it, between $100 million and $200 million of headwind that will come and go in 2020. And then in terms of our environmental and other liabilities, those numbers will move a little bit and so there’s probably a $100-ish million, maybe $200 million of flex that we have in there for 2020 also. So, those are really the major items that you’ll see, but our cash flow performance and the overachievement that we had in the fourth quarter relative to our own expectations were heavily anchored around our working capital improvements. We did a tremendous job with our commercial and collections teams on the receivable side; we’ve been doing a lot on transforming how we do credit to collections. And then we talked about inventory being our bugaboo for some time now and if you look at the free cash flow statement, you’ll see for the first time in a while, we actually were able to get cash from inventory as we’re specifically starting to tune some of those dials in a more disciplined way, with again, some of the things that Torsten and the team are driving from a transformation perspective. So Darius, I don’t know if you want to add.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. just to add a couple of things, Steve. And maybe, just to add a couple of things on a year-over-year basis and these are not dramatic impacts. but overall, our cash outlays are going to be slightly higher in 2020 versus 2019 due to restructuring. So that’s probably another factor. I wouldn’t get too focused about a baseline of 2020. obviously we have some CapEx to spend, which is the driver in our payment cycle, that’s an extra one. So that’s just a math worked outside. It doesn’t necessarily mean that 2020 announced the baseline. But I do want to highlight something and I think it’s a point that’s been missed completely, which is if you look at the cash flow generation of this company versus what it was three years ago, we’re about $2 billion higher on 15% to 20% in the last sales growth. I think that point has been just missed completely and I’m extraordinarily proud of the team in terms of what they’ve been able to accomplish in terms of cash generation. After all, that gives us more firepower to extra reinvest in the business or pass back to our shareowners or likely both. And I think that’s the thing that really matters.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. So just – that makes sense. So basically, a few hundred million dollars that is kind of timing related in 2020. Is that – is that kind of how we should think about at a high level?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I’m sorry.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And then one last quick one, just on HBT, what’s going on there with – I mean, you guys had a pretty positive Investor Day and now kind of framing a year with a little bit of a decline at the low end, what kind of popped up, is that kind of performance contracting out of JCI talked about that as being weak as well. What’s kind of the drag there?
Darius Adamczyk:
That’s exactly it, Steve. We basically are energy contracts or performance contracts primarily driven by the government sector, we’ve seen a substantial drop-off in that segment of the business in orders that has not been sort of the focus of the government sector lately and that’s been a problem. That’s been a significant business for us in the past and that’s dropped off. Yes, the orders there have dropped off double-digit. So that’s probably the one problem area that we’ve seen in terms of orders, but that – we’re always going to have an issue somewhere, but if we look at our long cycle orders for the quarter across Honeywell, 15% growth, I don’t want to sort of bypass that back in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.7. So, I think it was an incredibly successful quarter from a long-cycle orders perspective. And just to maybe, quote you another fact. In a place like China, orders up north of 20% and backlog up nearly 50%. So, I viewed this quarter as just an outstanding from Honeywell winning in the marketplace.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. One quick one, what’s your year-end share count? And then I’ll leave it there, just a year-end ending share count. I’ll leave it there. Thanks a lot.
Greg Lewis:
I think we’ve talked about 718.
Steve Tusa:
Yes.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Scott Davis:
A lot of – a lot of information here and super helpful, I think this is the first quarter, where we’ve, at least for the 2020 guide, where supply chain seems to be a – starting to become a tailwind and I guess my question really is, Darius – has this become a linear tailwind, meaning you get some benefit in 2020, some in 2021, 2022 or is there some sort of a step-up that occurs over time as you kind of post these investment cycles?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think it’s a gradual improvement. I think I was extraordinarily pleased with what we saw in terms of our inventory management. Inventory has been a bit of a bugaboo for Honeywell for a long time and we actually made some really nice progress in the second half of the year. I don’t think there are any miracles for us out there, but I expect that progress to continue and it was reflected in our cash flow for Q4. And also, we’re focused on our delivery, our quality and so on, and Torsten and his team are doing a really nice job driving those improvements and I expect a gradual improvement year-over-year and then transformation. I mean we dropped our fixed cost footprint in 2019. We have an even more aggressive plan for 2020 and 2021. So, you’re going to kind of continue to see that progress on fixed cost reduction, which obviously, makes us a much more variable cost company, which is something that I very much desire.
Scott Davis:
Yes. Super helpful and I don’t think you mentioned the word M&A or deals of any course in the prepared remarks and was that – I may have missed it, of course, but was that purposeful in the context, there’s just not a lot relatively expensive market out there or is it just not part of the planning right now, or deals are going to get announced when they get announced?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, we did do Rebellion in December, which is a big acquisition, but really an interesting one, which is basically, the use of imaging for advanced gas detection. So, it’s very much a technology-oriented company in the industrial segment, which fits really, really well with industrial safety, but also, fits well with Productivity Solutions and our HPS business. So, we’re very thrilled to get that one. In terms of M&A, we continue to be very active, I can tell you and the environment we’re seeing is, yes, the prices are elevated, but what I can also tell you is that kind of, because there is so much cash awash and so much capital to deploy, we’re seeing very aggressive sort of due diligence in the kind of terms that others are willing to accept. So, I think we’re assessing that because we’re going to continue to be a very cautious company and really study the market, but we also have to kind of look within ourselves in terms of, you know what’s risk that’s reasonable, what isn’t. So it’s – it’s a very robust M&A marketplace and we expect to do deals in 2020, certainly.
Scott Davis:
Helpful. Best of luck guys. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Scott.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe...
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe just a first question around the CapEx hike that you mentioned. It sounded pretty substantial, so maybe give us some idea of how long capital spending stays elevated and also in terms of the split of the CapEx increase maybe between growth focused on new product initiatives versus some of those supply chain internal self-help measures?
Greg Lewis:
Sure. So, we’ve been around $800 million, as you know, for the last couple of years and it goes, like in the $820 million or $830 million or so. And so, when I say elevated, this is not massive increases, we’re talking about $100 million, $100 million-ish type of increases year-on-year, and I would say it’s probably 50-50 split between increases relative to the transformation and increases relative to some new capacity for some of our new product launches that we’re doing. So, I wouldn’t – this is not like we’re making one massive block investment and something huge here. But as we go through this transformation, in the supply chain, it’s going to require – it’s going to require capital. So 50-50, I would say and think about it in sort of like a $100 million, $150 million type of potential increase year-on-year.
Darius Adamczyk:
And by the way, just to add to that, the IRR in total on these investments, substantially north of 30%. So, I mean if you think about that kind of a return versus M&A, whenever we’re going to see those kinds of returns, I’m more than happy to deploy more capital because it’s going to make us a better company in the long-term. So, I think that this increase in capital, I think, should be viewed as a positive, not a negative.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. And again, we talked about our free cash conversion, just to get back to that for a minute. We’ve said many times, we are not like pinpointed on a $100 million, if we’ve got good investments, and we’re going to make them. So…
Julian Mitchell:
That’s helpful. Thank you. And then my second question just around Safety and Productivity Solutions, not so much on the Productivity Solutions piece because I think that’s well understood. But maybe on Safety, that did rollover in the fourth quarter. Just maybe give us some understanding of – was that a surprise to you and what do you think this year will look like in terms of Safety sales?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean there it’s the markets. The industrial markets overall have been relatively soft. We don’t think that there is anything sort of unusual going on in that business, it’s a reflection of that. I mean it’s not – obviously it’s a market that’s flattish to down, some of the segments that we play in, we saw that. So this is probably one why we have some uncertainty about the short cycle, that’s one of the tougher businesses to call for us. We are concerned about what’s happening in China around coronavirus and so on and not just the impact in China, but really the impact on the global industrial production, because your global supply chain. So, I think you have to look beyond just China. But we’re optimistic that the markets are going to improve, but there isn’t inherently something unusual going on in those – in that business.
Julian Mitchell:
Great, thanks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Andy Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Andy.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning, Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Darius or Greg, just focusing on your guidance for 2020. To the extent you can, could you elaborate on the headwinds you could incur from the MAX, either growth or margin and obviously it’s too early to tell the coronavirus impact on commercial aftermarket. But there are lot of moving parts in that business, whether it’s a brief decline in flight hours, or the ADS-B mandate, you’ve had strong RMUs, connected initiatives are doing well. So, how do you think about the resiliency of commercial Aero aftermarket in 2020?
Greg Lewis:
So, obviously the – what Boeing is doing with the MAX return to service has and will have an impact on the aftermarket performance and I think we were all – we’re all aware, they fly the older planes longer, and so therefore, has increased demand in that sense. When you think about our guide for what’s happening with the math, you should think about – we’re going to have probably a low-to-mid single-digit headwind to the Aerospace growth because of the production schedule changes. And so we talked last year about it being rather minimal because the numbers were smaller. But now with Boeing announcing the stoppage of production and their mid-year return to service and their ramp up, their re-ramp, we are going to be taking down our deliveries to them much more significantly than we did in the back half of 2019. So, as we talked about, we will try to utilize some of our other existing backlog. And hopefully the supply base can provide us some additional material inputs, so that we can defer labor and try to serve some of our other customers in a way to offset some of that, but it’s hard to say how that’s going to work out. That’s – that’s why we’re – we are being a bit cautious, because that’s all very fresh news, as you know, within weeks and so the impacts to even our supply chain is unknown. So...
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, the revenue impact is meaningful. I mean it’s – think about kind of a mid triple-digit impact for millions of dollars that obviously we can – we think we can offset some of that, both through RMUs and backlog reduction, but it’s from a revenue perspective, it’s not an insignificant – and by the way, we’re just – we’re completely aligned to Boeing’s perspective. So it’s – that’s what’s reflected in our current outlook.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Thanks for that guys. And, Darius you already mentioned China in Q4 was pretty strong in terms of orders, but maybe you can walk us around the world, which you did in Q4 and what your expectations are for 2020. We are understanding that there’s uncertainty out there. I think in Q3, China and U.S. year grew strong, you’re expecting India to come back. So, what happened to these regions in Q4?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Yes, interesting Q4, I mean, obviously, China was a highlight, both kind of on the orders growth rate. And by the way, China is accelerating for us. So, you have seen a higher rate of growth in Q2, Q3, Q4. Q4 is even higher. So we’re encouraged by what we’re seeing there, the orders give us. So actually, China is one of the really nice storage for us. The other place to highlight, and I think, I’ve talked about this before, which is Latin America. I mean, Latin America was also up high-single digits and obviously we have to be taking a lot of share there given the fact that a lot of those economies aren’t exactly robust and they’re struggling. So, I’m very, very pleased with what’s happened there. Middle East continues to be a region of strength for us. We had some tougher comps, but think low-to-mid single-digit kind of growth rate. Probably that the low light for us was Western Europe. That’s been kind of soft in Q4. I think a couple of the countries that I’d look to get that were particularly soft would be Italy and the Netherlands, which were weak overall. India was okay in Q4. Frankly, it was a little bit lower than we had hoped, the low-to-mid single-digit kind of growth numbers. There is some – we have – that’s a country of strength for us, but slightly below our expectations. And Russia actually did quite well for us as well in the segments that we play in. So sort of a mixed story but the highlight certainly being China both on the actual performance and the bookings growth.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Very interesting, thanks guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague:
Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Couple of quick ones from me. Just on the productivity products. Darius, a little surprised to hear you’re not expecting a return to growth to the back half – into the back half, the comps are very easy in the first half. Do you feel like you have the product to actually drive the business and kind of take a little bit better control of your destiny relative to kind of just what the noise is going on perhaps in the channel?
Darius Adamczyk:
So, to be clear, I am expecting a return to growth in productivity products. So, I think we – I think we’ve got our signals across somewhere. And just to give you some very specific data points. The sales out in the channel for productivity products has grown every quarter last year. More or less normalized our channel position now by the end of 2019. We actually saw growth in the scanning portfolio in productivity products and we’ve been able to secure a couple of good wins. The toughest comp still for productivity products is Q1. We anticipated that. It’s not news. But as we get further and further out the year, I do expect growth in productivity products. So – and I have the data to – that gives me that confidence. So that’s not a wish and a hope. I have some data points that says that, that’s a reasonable outcome to expect, unless of course something goes wrong with the market. But actually, I’m very pleased with the kind of progress that’s been made, the team that we now have there in place and the products that we have to the marketplace.
Jeff Sprague:
All right. I was just going by Slide 7 there on the second half. Just thinking about the guide overall, when you read what you’ve put on Slide 6, it doesn’t sound like you’re being super conservative, but then when you talk and with the range, it does in a way feel conservative. Could you just address that? I mean zero at the low end feels pretty conservative, particularly if you pull out a zero in Q1, which is your toughest comparison, right? Then you probably are on a path for something better than that as the year unfolds.
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, Jeff, I think we’ve been pretty consistent in our approach in terms of forecasting and outlooks, which is, we’re not – when I’m not sure of something, or myself and Greg are not sure of something, we’re going to give you a wider range. And we’re not going to promise things that we don’t either don’t have visibility or can’t do. I would also tell you a couple of other things. I mean, there are quite a few unknowns, I mean the coronavirus right now is an example, is something that’s very difficult for us to predict around the impact. I mean if things go back and our factories reopen Monday or a week from Monday, which is kind of the schedule, then maybe it’s conservative. What if they don’t? What if this continues to spread? What if it gets worse? That impact could be substantially worse than what we’re expecting. The short cycle is a little bit unpredictable. We talked about – there was a prior question industrial safety, it’s tough to call that right now. As I look at a lot of the reports from a lot of the shorter cycle-oriented peers, they exactly have not been stellar. I mean, so we’re trying to call it, I don’t know about conservatively. We don’t know and we don’t know that much about short cycle right now. We’re going to kind of err on certainly, a little bit wider range and we’ll see what happens, and obviously like we do every year, as the year progresses, we’ll update you and we’ll refresh our guidance. I’m very happy with our long cycle. I mean a 10% growth in the backlog is very good. So that gives me some confidence and we’ll see how the year progresses.
Jeff Sprague:
Yes. And on the long cycle, just one more if I could. Obviously projects are normally subject to delays and the like. But as it stands now, is most of that backlog deliverable in 2020? It’s tied to expected activity in 2020?
Darius Adamczyk:
No, it’s – some of it is beyond 2020. I mean, we sort of expect the normal conversion cycle. I mean, it’s – for example, some of the Intelligrated backlog just goes all the way into 20.
Greg Lewis:
15 months.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, 15, 18 months, so it’s longer cycle. But nevertheless, I mean, the makeup of it isn’t dramatically different in terms of execution versus 20 – end of 2018. So it kind of looks the same. It’s always more than one year. So it’s not inconsistent, what we’ve seen in the past.
Jeff Sprague:
Great, thank you very much.
Mark Bendza:
Hey, Abby, I think we can take two more questions.
Operator:
Okay, thank you. We will take our next question from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes, thanks for the question. Good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
Good morning. So my first question is just around, you guys talked about short cycle as obviously another item of uncertainty in 2020. Can you talk a little bit about what you saw from short-cycle trends in 4Q throughout the quarter? And was there maybe any signs of like weakening throughout December and into January that gives you concern into the first quarter or have you seen more like stabilization?
Greg Lewis:
I would tell you that as we – as we exited the year, it was relatively stable. But I would tell you that also January with the China situation is going to be one we’re going to have to read into pretty closely. So, no, I wouldn’t highlight a huge problem to solve at this point just yet, but certainly there have been some weakening trends as we exited December and into January in a few places. Again, China, on the short cycle is one we’re going to watch very closely. Darius mentioned a couple of areas in Europe in particular as well.
Nicole DeBlase:
Okay, got it. Thanks, Greg. And then secondly just around Process, if you guys could talk a little bit more about what you’re seeing from a backlog perspective and areas of strength. One of your big competitors talked about some big LNG projects coming through recently, so it would be great to hear where the strength is coming from for you guys?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, I think for us it’s probably three main components of strengths. By the way, HPS had a terrific quarter, double-digit orders growth, the business is doing incredibly well. We’re thrilled with their performance. But specifically LNGs coming through some of the mega refining petrochemical complexes is another place of growth and we’re starting to give you a bit more in the renewable segment. That’s actually one of the focus areas for PMT in general. And we’re seeing some improved activity for – in renewables. So I would highlight those three as areas where we’re seeing growth with a terrific bookings and orders outlook in Q4.
Nicole DeBlase:
Thanks, Darius. I’ll pass it on.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question is from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks guys. Thanks for letting me in. I appreciate it.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
So, yes, we’ve obviously covered a lot of ground and I appreciate all the detail by the way. I just want to clarify on the payroll cycle. Greg, you called out $100 million, $200 million, is that just a cash impact or does that also impact –
Darius Adamczyk:
That’s right. Payroll.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, it’s payroll, that’s our payroll.
Nigel Coe:
Right. So was that just cash or was that earnings?
Greg Lewis:
No, no that’s cash. That’s just –
Nigel Coe:
Business cash, okay.
Greg Lewis:
Generally, at the end of the year, we carry an accrual. The way the calendar falls that are repaid every two weeks on a Friday, happens all the time, the exact same way. It happens next year, the Friday is going to be ready for the year-end.
Nigel Coe:
Understood. Thank you very much. And then my main question is on the 20 to 50 bps of segment margin expansion, how does that look by segments? And the spirit of my question is, should we expect SPS to be sort of a heavy contributor to that, maybe Aerospace is a little bit less, so any color on that. And then kind of the subtext here is, you’re obviously doing a lot of restructuring this year, up to $0.5 billion in your plan. Is that all cash? And what kind of paybacks are you getting on that spend?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, so let me unpack that. First of all, we’re not giving segment margin expansion guidance individually. We should expect, of course that SPS will improve, given the degradation we saw in 2019. They’ve obviously got a lot more room to run given that depression we had this year. The other three businesses, I think all have, I’ll call it, equal opportunity on margin improvement overall. So that’s the way I would think about – think about that from a segment perspective. As it relates to the restructuring, a high percentage of the restructuring that we have on the balance sheet is cash-oriented, and we do expect that is going to essentially get carried out over 2.5 to 3 years time. As Darius mentioned, a heavy amount of that would be in 2020 and then in 2021 and a little bit of a tail off into 2022. But as it relates to the projects, you can think about them really in sort of two categories, those that are really tied to, call it, site consolidations. Those are above the cost of capital, clearly the high-single digit, low-double digit type returns, those that are more associated with, call it, back office productivity and organizational redevelopment and so on. Those are carrying far higher returns to them. So that’s kind of what we are looking at.
Nigel Coe:
Great, thank you. And one quick clarification on the share count reduction question. It doesn’t feel like you’ve got a whole lot dialed in for 2020, about $1.5 billion by my calculations. Is that the right zone?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, that’s in the ballpark. Again, we are at a minimum going to buyback 1% of our shares for sure. And then as we discuss this, if the year progresses, and we’re not seeing a lot of M&A activity and it looks like an attractive opportunity as we did here in 2019, we won’t be afraid to go back into the market and scoop up some of our own shares.
Nigel Coe:
Great, thanks, guys.
Operator:
That concludes today’s question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for any additional or closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
I want to thank our shareholders for continued support of Honeywell. We remain focused on continuing to outperform for our shareowners, our customers and our employees. We have delivered on our commitments, strong results each quarter and continue to make great progress on our growth and transformation initiatives. We have a great portfolio and we continue to execute well. I’m excited for 2020 and we expect another high-performance year for Honeywell. Thank you all for listening and have a great weekend.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today’s teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, everyone. Ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Honeywell’s Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mark Bendza, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you Emily [ph]. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s third quarter 2019 earnings conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis.This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings.For this call, references to adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and free cash flow conversion, and effective tax rate exclude the impacts from separation costs related to the two spin-offs, of our homes and transportation systems businesses in 2018, as well as pension, mark-to-market adjustments and U.S. tax legislation, except where otherwise noted. Comparisons are to the prior year period unless otherwise noted.This morning, we will review our financial results for the third quarter of 2019, share our guidance for the fourth quarter, and provide an update to our full year 2019 outlook, and share some preliminary thoughts on 2020 dynamics. As always, we’ll leave time for your questions at the end.And with that, I’d like to turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you Mark, and good morning everyone. Let’s begin on slide two. This has been a very exciting quarter for Honeywell, capped off by another strong financial performance and several important recent leadership changes.I have asked Tim Mahoney who has been the President and CEO of our Aerospace Segment for the past 10 years to serve as our Senior Vice President of Enterprise Transformation. In that role, Tim will oversee Honeywell Digital, our global cross functional and digitization initiative that is driving improvements in customer service and efficiency. Tim's outstanding leadership has enabled Aerospace to deliver exceptional results.Additionally, within Aero, Tim led the creation of Honeywell's best digital environment. I'm looking forward to leveraging that experience and having his expertise in this crucial role as we continue to evolve as a software industrial company.Taking over for Tim as the leader of Aerospace is Mike Madsen, who previously led our Aerospace Integrated Supply Chain. Mike has also served as the President of our Defense and Space business and has held leadership roles within our air transport and regional business.Mike began his career at Honeywell, and he has had three decades of leadership experience here. We are fortunate to have someone of Mike’s extensive background at the helm of Aerospace. These appointments are effective immediately, but Mike and Tim will of course were closely together throughout the fourth quarter to ensure a smooth transition.In addition, Jeff Kimbell has been named Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer who is overseeing our sales and marketing organizations to drive profitable, organic growth.Jeff joins us from McKinsey where he's a partner in the transformation practice. Last, Deborah Flint has joined our Board of Director as an Independent Director. Deborah is the CEO of Los Angeles World Airports, where she is overseeing the complete modernization of LAX including championing the use of IoT technologies. Her deep knowledge of and experience with critical infrastructure, connected buildings, and advanced security solutions would be invaluable to the board in our ongoing transformation.We have the right leadership team in place, a deep bench of up and coming leaders, and an engaged and experienced Board of Directors who will help us continue to deliver the results you have come to expect from Honeywell.Turning to Slide three, let's discuss a few of our recent highlights and wins. Through our Honeywell connected enterprise, we launched Honeywell Forge Cyber Security aimed at helping customers identify and act on cyber related incidents. We once again had double-digit growth in total connected software sales, as well as continued growth in connected orders during the quarter.We announced that Honeywell was appointed by Kuwait, and Integrated Petroleum Industries to provide technology and production systems to the Al-Zour Refinery, which will be the largest Integrated Refining and petrochemical plant ever constructed in Kuwait.In addition, Honeywell was ranked 13th on Forbes 2019 the world's most reputable companies for corporate responsibility. Our position on this list is a testament to all we have done and continue to do, to be strong advocates for the environment, our diverse employee base, and our communities.Now on to Slide four. In the third quarter, we continue to drive strong financial results, delivering adjusted earnings per share of $2.08, $0.06 above the high end of our guidance range.We grew organic sales by 3% driven by the strength across Aerospace as well as in our process automation and building technologies businesses. Aerospace generated double-digit organic sales growth for the fifth straight quarter, driven by our strong positions on key platforms, robust defense portfolio, and ongoing demand for aftermarket services.Our long cycle backlog was up approximately 8% year-over-year, driven by defense and space and UOP bookings, as well as the strong warehouse automation orders and HPS Project orders, which each increased over 20% in the quarter positioning us well for the remainder of the year and into 2020.Organic growth, combined with their benefits of the portfolio enhancements we have made in 2018 and our operational excellence initiatives, drove segment margin expansion of 180 basis points with segment margin again exceeding 21% this quarter.Excluding the favorable margin impact from the spin-offs, segment margin expanded 80 basis points which was 40 points above the high end of our guidance. During the quarter, we generated $1.3 billion of adjusted free cash flow. We remain focused on our working capital management at every level of the organization and expect to deliver on our cash flow commitment for the full year.As we've done throughout the year, we continue to execute on our disciplined capital deployment strategy. During the quarter, we repurchased $1 billion of Honeywell shares and announced a 10% increase in our dividend, our tenth consecutive double-digit increase. We also closed three Honeywell venture investments and completed the acquisition of TruTrak Flight Systems, our leader in autopilots for the experimental light sport and certified aircraft.In the first nine months of 2019, we have deployed 5.5 billion to share repurchases, dividends, and acquisitions. Additionally, during the quarter, we issued $2.7 billion of senior notes to refinance October debt maturities at attractive interest rates, further strengthening our balance sheet. I am very pleased with our performance this year. I'm confident the team will continue to execute and deliver our full year plan.With that, I'll turn the call over to Greg who will discuss our third quarter results in more detail and provide our updated full year 2019 guidance.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Darius and good morning everyone. Let's begin on Slide five. We posted another strong performance in the third quarter, building on the great first half in 2019. Aerospace had another double-digit organic growth quarter. Sales were strong across process solutions, UOP licensing, and refining Catalyst businesses and building products.Honeywell Connected Enterprise drove double-digit growth in connected software, SPS contracted during the quarter but the turnaround in productivity products is progressing and the large order bookings we anticipated in Intelligrated have begun to materialize as evidenced by the over 20% growth in orders during the quarter.The impact of the spin-offs of Garrett and Resideo in 2018, both lower margin businesses at the time of the spin contributed 100 basis points of second margin expansion this quarter. We will lap the favorable impacts of these actions in the fourth quarter. The remaining 80 basis points of this quarter's expansion was the result of our business performance in Aerospace Building Technologies and Performance Materials and Technologies, partially offset by the year-over-year margin decline and safety and productivity solutions that we had signaled previously.Adjusted earnings per share were $2.08 up 9% excluding the spin-off impact. Adjusted earnings per share excludes $114 million tax adjustment associated with withholding taxes in connection with the fourth quarter of 2017 U.S. Tax Legislation charge.With that benefit, reported earnings per share in the quarter was $2.23. I'll talk in more detail about EPS on the next slide.Adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was $1.3 billion with conversion of 85%. Our total adjusted free cash flow for the first nine months was $4 billion up from $3.9 billion excluding the spins in the first nine months of 2018.Cash conversion for the year has been impacted by the timing in our projects businesses, primarily in Intelligrated and PMT. Overall, a very good performance for the third quarter and above both our margin expansion and our EPS guidance range. I’m now moving to slide six, and the adjusted earnings per share bridge from the third quarter of 2018.Consistent with last quarter, the majority of our earnings growth excluding the spins came through segment profit improvement $0.14. That was driven by our organic sales growth, continued productivity improvements realized through our operational excellence initiatives and savings from previously funded repositioning projects.Our share repurchase program with which we have deployed $3.7 billion year-to-date has resulted in a 3% reduction in share count from last year and provided $0.07 of earnings improvement.Our adjusted effective tax rate was 22% consistent with last third quarter and the outlook we previously provided. Below the line items we’re $0.03 headwind this quarter compared to last year primarily due to lower pension income as a result of the pension de-risking actions we took in 2018, and the higher funding of new repositioning products.We funded a substantial amount of high return projects more than 70 million in the quarter, which will support our continued productivity focus, transformation and supply chain initiatives, and will also help drive separate margin expansion and earnings growth in a range of macroeconomic environments.Overall, third quarter adjusted EPS was $0.06 above the high end of the guidance we provided in the second quarter. Our better than anticipated performance was primarily from stronger segment profit, and Aero, SPS as well as acceleration of stranded cost removal. The below the line expenses were about $0.03 lower than we had expected, partially due to benefits from foreign exchange.So in total, EPS grew 9% percent this quarter, another great result adding to our already strong start to the year. Now let's turn to Slide seven and discuss this side of performance. Starting with Aerospace, sales were up 10% on an organic basis continuing an outstanding year for the business.Commercial aftermarket grew 6% organically, with strong demand above across both air transport and the business aviation. Defense and Space grew 17% organically led by global demand for guidance and navigation systems as well as increased aftermarket volumes on key U.S. Department of Defense Programs.Backlog for defense and space is up nearly 20% and more than two thirds of orders with delivery through 2020 are booked giving us confidence that business is poised for continued growth next year.In Commercial OE, sales were up 7% organically, driven by growth in air transport shipments and continued strength across business jet platforms. We saw increased deliveries across major OE business aviation platforms and high demand for components in air transport.As we've discussed previously, we remain aligned to Boeing's stated production schedule for the 737 Max and we'll continue to monitor the situation closely. But at this point, we have not seen and do not anticipate a significant impact to Honeywell in 2019.Commercial aftermarket sales growth was driven by demand across both air transport and business aviation led by growth in retrofit, modifications and upgrades. In addition, demand for Honeywell Forge for aircraft, drove double-digit JetWave organic sales growth.Aerospace segment margins expanded 350 basis points, driven by commercial excellence, productivity net of inflation and margin accretion from the spin of transportation systems. The spin contributed approximately 100 basis points to Aerospace’s total margin expansion. As a reminder, this is the last quarter we'll have the benefit of spin accretion aero. We expect Aerospace strong organic sales growth and segment margin expansion to continue into the fourth quarter.In Honeywell building technology, sales were up 3% organically, primarily driven by ongoing strength in commercial fire products in the U.S.; double-digit growth across our suite of building management products, which was aided by improved supply chain execution, and strong demand for our Tridium Connected Software platform.Notably in Europe, the quarter finished stronger than expected after seeing a soft market in the first two months, particularly in Germany. Building Solutions was flat in the quarter with projects growth across both the Americas region and the airport vertical, which were offset by declines in the energy business.HBT segment margins expanded 390 basis points in the third quarter, driven by the favorable impact from the spin-off of homes business. As a reminder, this was the last quarter we'll have the full benefit of the home spin accretion, given that the spin occurred at the end of October 2018.Segment margins excluding the impacts in the spin accretion were up 10 basis points this quarter, and have continued to show improvement quarter-to-quarter since the beginning of 2019. Overall, it was another good quarter from the HBT team.Before moving on, I'd like to remind everyone that the Building Technologies leadership team is hosting an Investor Showcase event, November 20th through the 21st at our headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia. Vimal and his team are going to provide a deep dive into each of the businesses and highlight it's strategy and the technology offerings we bring to the market. I encourage you to listen to the webcast online.In Performance Materials and Technologies, sales were up 3% on an organic basis. Process Solutions sales were up 7% organically, driven by strength across the entire automation portfolio. We saw growth in maintenance and migration services, gas -- products and automation projects and software.Orders and backlog across PMT were both up high single digits with particular strength in the product businesses -- in the projects businesses notably seeing some movement in global mega projects, specifically in Russia and China giving us confidence in the momentum of this business.In UOP, sales were flat organically with growth and refining catalysts and licensing offset by declines in gas processing due to fewer domestic fire unit sales given a software midstream gas processing market in the U.S.We again saw strong double-digit orders and backlog growth in UOP with strength in equipment and petrochemical catalyst positioning us well for growth going forward.Organic sales in Advanced Materials were down 2% driven by lower volumes and pricing and flooring products due to the impact of illegal HFC imports into Europe and weaker end market demand in specialty products.We are actively working in partnership with private industry, EU regulators and EU member countries to address the harmful illegal HFC imports, while these efforts are under way we will continue to see pressure on HFC pricing and volume.Overall PMT segment margins expanded by 60 basis points in the quarter, driven by direct material productivity, commercial excellence and organic growth.Finally in Safety and Productivity Solutions, sales were down 8% on organic basis due to distributor destocking and fewer large project rollouts and productivity products and the impact of major systems project timing in Intelligrated.Segment margins contracted 320 basis points for the quarter, driven by lower sales volumes, which -- while down year-over-year was 110 basis points better sequentially than the second quarter. The management team has taken appropriate cost actions to address the volume deleveraging, mitigating some of the softness, this year. They will continue to realign the cost structure in the fourth quarter as we work through the revenue challenges.In productivity products, we continue to make progress in the commercial turnaround. Channel inventory levels are going down as expected and on our -- and our on a trajectory to reach normalized levels by the end of 2019.In our Intelligrated warehouse automation businesses as we've previously mentioned, a large portion is project-based, which results in uneven growth patterns. Recent market data from [Indiscernible] September's semi-annual release highlighted this order contraction in the first half across the material handling market. They are experiencing high double-digit 29% order contraction with 2% shipment growth.Our sales were down double-digits this quarter as a result of the difficult comps and the timing of major system shifting to the right. The pipeline of major systems orders we highlighted previously have started to convert with orders up more than 20% year-over-year in the third quarter.The bulk of the sales stemming from these orders will start to show up in 2020. Intelligrated aftermarket service business continues to benefit from our large and growing installed base, again, having a strong double-digit growth from ongoing demand for life cycle support and services.Moving to Safety, organic sales for the quarter were flat, as continued demand for our gas detection products was offset by decreased volumes of general safety and personal protective equipment. So overall for the portfolio, a strong performance for the third quarter.With that, let's turn to Slide eight to discuss our fourth quarter outlook and the updated full year 2019 guidance. We delivered strong results in the first nine months of 2019 with higher segment profit and earnings per share in the third quarter than initially anticipated, and we're seeing continued strength in several key markets. However, we remain somewhat cautious in our outlook, given the continued uncertainty in the macro environment and the full year, continues to be solidly on track.We expect organic growth in the fourth quarter in the range of 2% to 4%, which will be driven by continued strength in Aerospace and Defense coupled with ongoing demand in Building Products and Process Automation, supported by a healthy backlog in UOP and continued growth in connected software through Honeywell Connected Enterprise.We expect continued segment profit and segment margin growth with year-over-year improvement of 20 basis points to 50 basis points, excluding the impact of the 2018 spins resulting in segment margins in the range of 20.7% to 21% in the fourth quarter.Let's look at the segment outlook in a little bit more detail. In Aerospace, we continue to see strong demand in both business aviation and in U.S. defense supported by robust orders growth and firm backlogs for orders we delivery in to 2020. We will see tougher comps in business aviation OE and defense given the double-digit organic sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2018, so we expect the growth to moderate slightly.In Building Technologies, we expect continued strength in commercial fire products driven by demand in the Americas, continued strength in software and increased project growth in high growth regions.In Performance Materials and Technologies, we expect to see continued growth in products and services and Process Automation and we expect healthy demand in the UOP from the strong backlog, particularly in the equipment business. The headwinds in Advanced Materials business from illegal imports of HFCs will persist into the fourth quarter.Finally in SPS, we continue to expect distributor destocking and productivity products to remain a headwind for the remainder of 2019 from both the sales and segment margin perspective. We expect another very strong quarter for Intelligrated orders, but sales will again be unfavorably impacted by the tougher comps and the timing of those major system rollouts.The net below the line impact which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax is expected to be approximately 155 million in the fourth quarter as we continue to fund repositioning pipeline.We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be between 20% and 21% in the fourth quarter and the average share count to be approximately 723 million shares.So now let's move on to Slide nine and we could talk about our updated full-year guidance. On this slide, you can see the progression of our guidance throughout the year. We delivered strong results each quarter, continue to expand margins and driven adjusted earnings-per-share growth of approximately 10% year-over-year, despite some deceleration in organic growth as the macro environment has become increasingly less stable in the second half.Based on our year-to-date results, we are again raising the low end of our adjusted earnings per share guidance by $0.15. We are narrowing our reported sales range, to $36.7 billion to $36.9 billion with organic sales growth expected to be in the range of 4% to 5% reflecting a tougher second half, but above the midpoint of our original sales guidance this year.We are raising the low end of our segment margin guidance by 20 basis points to a new range of 20.9% to 21% reflecting the progress we continue to make in driving profitable growth. We're also reaffirming our adjusted free cash flow guidance to be in the range of $5.7 billion to $6 billion as we remain focused on improving working capital and driving cash throughout our Honeywell businesses.Our higher full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance of $8.10 to $8.15 represents earnings growth of approximately 10% excluding the impact of the spins. This is an increase of $0.08 at the midpoint from our most recent full-year guidance passing through the third quarter beat of $0.08 as compared to the midpoint of our third quarter guidance range. This latest update, an additional $0.15 low end raise takes us to a $0.30 raise in EPS from the low end of our original guidance range of $7.80 to $8.10 at the beginning of the year demonstrating the strong progression throughout 2019.We continue to be confident in our ability to execute even in difficult environments and these updates reflect that. We have planned for and executed mitigations against externalities such as tariffs. We've taken appropriate and targeted cost actions to reduce cost in areas where we believe the most exposure to macro instability and market weakness we have.As a result, the momentum we built throughout the third quarter and a strong finish in Q4 will carry through for an excellent performance this year.With that let's turn to Slide 10, and discuss some of what we're seeing as we head into 2020. As we head into next year, we're seeing indicators of strength in many of our key end markets but economic instability remains. It's clear the growth outlook for the overall economy will not be as robust as it has been in 2018 and 2019.We do see continued demand growth in key industries though where we have strong positions. Commercial aftermarket activity will be driven by increases in flight hours, go at a slower pace. Solid airlines demand, ramping of platforms that recently entered into service and continued stable defense budgets. These drivers across end markets in Aero, these drivers across end markets position Aero well for good growth in 2020, albeit modestly -- at a more moderate levels.Our continued focus on productivity, commercial excellence and our transformation initiatives gives us confidence to sustain our margin improvement path, but likely at a slower pace than 2019 in Aero.Non-residential construction growth with slight moderation should enable continued demand for building Technologies products and services and the product and the progress, Vimal and team are making in operational excellence and new product introductions should provide the opportunity for accelerated margin expansion, continuing the positive trend that we've seen in HBT through 2019.In PMT, we expect Process Automation to continue to grow and we've had continued strong orders and backlog growth for UOP, which positions us well going into next year. Macro data suggesting that the softer market in the U.S. midstream oil and gas continues which will affect the gas processing business.The negative impacted Advanced Materials from illegal imports of HFCs into Europe while being proactively address will likely continue into 2020. We do expect that a growing set of actions that the European Union is beginning to deploy relative to enforcements, fines and seizures should result in the slowdown in ultimately the elimination of the illegal imports of refrigerants into the region.In SPS productivity products is progressing on its turnaround and we expect to return to growth and margin expansion during 2020. The second half build a backlog with major systems project awards for Intelligrated warehouse automation solutions will provide a tailwind to accelerate growth into next year.And across-end markets, we expect Honeywell Connected Enterprise to continue to drive double-digit connected software growth as we see strong, initial demand for Honeywell Forge offerings and we'll continue to launch updates for Forge throughout 2020.In summary, we're well positioned in key verticals and end markets with ongoing operational excellence initiatives across all businesses to drive productivity in margin expansion. We have a robust playbook with multiple levers to protect profit in the event of a market slowdown and significant balance sheet flexibility to generate strong returns through share repurchases and M&A.Our three transformation initiatives The Connected Enterprise, Integrated Supply Chain and Honeywell Digital will continue to provide catalyst for profitable growth. So, while 2020 is shaping up to be a challenging year we're confident in our ability to continue to deliver. As we did last year, we will provide more detailed guidance once we close out the full year of 2019.With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Darius who will wrap up on slide 11.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Greg. Overall, we are pleased with, and encouraged by the performance from our businesses in the first three quarters of 2019. We continue to execute on our commitments to share owners by generating strong organic growth in many end markets and have many ways to further expand margins and grow earnings.We continue to invest in our businesses growth initiatives and deploy capital to generate high returns. Our track record of execution continues and we're making progress in our business transformation initiatives including Honeywell Connected Enterprise, Honeywell digital and supply chain transformation. We still have a lot of work to do with these initiatives, but I am pleased with the early progress and the significant opportunities to provide for Honeywell.With that, Mark, let's move to Q&A.
Mark Bendza:
Thank you, Darius. Darius and Greg are now available to answer your questions. Emily, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions]. Thank you everyone. Our first question is coming from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi. Good morning everyone and thank you for the time.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Darius, maybe for you on aerospace, can you talk about this business a little bit. How you're thinking about it as part of Honeywell longer term? Does it get bigger or maybe even smaller? I ask this because the management changed clearly, but I look at five quarters of double-digit organic growth and operating margins close to 27% and I ask myself is this as good as they get , so maybe if you could touch upon that for a second?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, yes, I think it's pretty good. I mean, anytime you get double-digit growth and the income margin is terrific, but we don't think that that kind of growth is far from over, maybe certainly we're in a very favorable economic condition, but as we kind of look into 2020, we continue to be bullish on this business. The management change really has nothing to do with the market conditions. And I think frankly, Tim has a core skillset that's very unique to what we’re trying to accomplish in Honeywell Digital. We're trying to template what was done in aerospace because they're substantially more advanced than the rest of Honeywell.Tim expressed the desire and I fully agreed and encourage him to take out a new role to wrap up kind of his career, and Mike Madsen has been a terrific leader for decades in Honeywell. So I think that this is his kind of a natural transition. But I wouldn't read into the management changes has anything to do with aerospace market conditions. When I point to figures such as 60% of our orders already backlog through 2020, I think flight hours are going to continue. Our aftermarket business is strong. There's a lot of BGA platforms that our ongoing production rates are strong. Hopefully, we'll see the 737 Max returned to higher production rates and back to service. So, I don't see any kind of a doom and gloom scenario for the aerospace segment for the foreseeable future, and as a matter of fact, I'm quite bullish on it.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you very much. No, I didn't imply that about Tim. I think. Mike and Tim are probably good partners. And then just upon the defense business, do you see that slowing down into 2020. You've mentioned before that you're trying to sell out for all of 2020 kind of how you think about the growth profile of 40% of Aero?
Darius Adamczyk:
I mean, yes. I think they are tough – the comps are going to get obviously tougher because we hit double-digit growth for five consecutive quarters, but I don't think that there is – I'm anticipating any kind of crash or negative growth. We're still expecting to grow next year. That's the expectations, those are plans. We're going to provide you more detail in early 2020, but overall the business continues to have levers for growth, and also for continued margin expansion, because I think something that gets dramatically understated is our focus on productivity, which you saw on our margin profile this quarter which is continuing restructuring, driving Honeywell Digital, ISC transformation, the power of one on the commercial and fixed cost side, and you'll see that coming through in our numbers. So no matter what the market conditions are, that's part of the Honeywell playbook.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
You're welcome.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Davis:
One of the things, I guess, if you just don't mind going around the world a little bit and give us little granularity on what you're seeing in specifically China, I guess and then Western Europe, maybe even Brazil, Mexico et cetera?
Darius Adamczyk:
Sure. I mean, I think overall despite some of the negativity in the news, we actually saw pretty good growth both from a revenue and orders perspective. By far China, hit the best quarter of the year. I think mid-single digit in terms of revenue growth, strong double-digit orders growth, bookings up double-digit, so actually I had a very, very good quarter in China. Our long-cycle businesses performed extraordinarily well and it was a good quarter. Despite what we read in Europe, Honeywell had a very strong quarter in Europe as well, I mean, up mid-single digits, strong growth across the board, probably the only exception was Italy, we had a little bit of a tougher, but overall Europe was strong.LatAm actually had a pretty good quarter as well. They were up, I think about kind of mid-single-digit growth, and again some of the challenged economies there. It was a pleasant surprise based on how we're doing. Russia actually did well. Middle East did well. Now, a little bit of the soft spot was India, which was bit unusual for us in Q3, but we're still expecting in India double-digit growth for the year. So I'm not particularly alarmed by the one data point. And then, U.S. obviously continues to be strong. So, overall, both as I look at revenues and more importantly orders which is what positions us for 2020 is actually a pretty strong story and one that was very encouraging.
Scott Davis:
Good to hear. And just completely different follow up, but just be -- what does -- what does the customer adoption of Forge look like in the context of, is it kind of trialing and saying we will give this a try for a year, is it more longer-term contracts, is there something in the middle? Is there some sort of standardized agreement that’s starting to emerge as you get deeper into this?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think Scott, that varies based on the franchise, I mean, first, some of the connecteds are further ahead than others. For example, in Q3 we had connected buildings and the cyber security leading in terms of strong double-digit growth. Some of them are a little further behind. We have more mature offerings, I would say in cyber, in the Aircraft segment, the building segment, some of them are still in development stage. Some of them are -- that's typically how you started engagement of our customer. You kind of do a proof-of-concept. The customer is happy that proof-of-concept moves up for an [ph] assignment.So – we are some that are in a broader rollout stage, and some that are in the proof-of-concept stage. As an example of our success, we've had a major player in the Middle East, do a proof-of-concept for us which was highly successful and that same player is now rolling out our Forge solutions to the entire oil and gas infrastructure, which will be worth millions of annual dollars per year. So, I think it just depends which one we're talking about, but I think overall Forge was still in the early innings and we're just launching the various Forge offerings.
Scott Davis:
Good luck to you. Thank, you guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks.
Operator:
Moving next, we'll go Steve Tusa with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Can you just first walk through anything in the model for fourth quarter with regards to the segments that you'd want to highlight, I mean, SPS is obviously one that, I think would be helpful to get a little bit more kind of pointed guidance around whether it's organic growth or profits and any of the other businesses that we may see variability outside of just kind of normal seasonality and comps?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So, I think you're going to see something pretty consistent with what we've just done in the third quarter. Obviously, there is variability ranges around all of them. But as I described, I think Aero is going to continue to lead the path from a growth perspective. And I think we're going to see mid-single digit kind of growth, low to mid-single digit kind of growth in PMT and HBC, and I would expect to see SPS down single digits again in the fourth quarter.And the on the orders perspective as we talked about in the prepared comments, we had a great Intelligrated quarter, 20% plus growth in orders as we've been talking about those major systems project coming in. We expect more that in the fourth quarter and that will help us get that for next year. And then with the – from a margin expansion perspective, I think you're going to see the – the obviously the removal of the spin comparison is going to change the overall reported numbers, but I would expect to see margin ranges that are going to look fairly similar from third into the fourth quarter broadly speaking. This is the same playbook. I don't expect like a big divergence from one quarter to the next in any particular business.
Steve Tusa:
Is 15% margins still a credible number at SPS and if you don't see progress there over the next 12 months what kind of actions can you take?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I think 15% is still a credible margin rate to build back from as we enter into 2020 and again, if you look at productivity products as an example, it's essentially kind of flattened out. So we're showing organic declines, but the absolute value of the revenues has really kind of flattened out over the last few quarters. And so -- and as we talked about in the channel, that inventory level is going to come down to a normalized level in 4Q, so, as that begins to reaccelerate, and as we continue to get additional growth and the aftermarket side in Intelligrated, I absolutely expect to see margins continue to bounce back and expand into 2020..
Darius Adamczyk:
And I just add a couple of things to that. One is, I think, although maybe at a high level, obviously, we would like to print better results from SPS, but in terms of productivity products we're executing what we should be executing. The inventory levels are dropping and our -- and we know exactly what they are and they drove double-digit campaigns for Q3.We see our sales out data improving. We see better activity -- commercial activity on our Tier 1 wins. So it's still not resulting in the financial results we hope to see, but the progress from Q-over-Q is good. We've also enhance some of the talent in that business and we've had some, a new people joined. So I would say that the productivity products, we're very much on track.In Intelligrated which is, maybe the other part of the story. I think as we discussed at the end of Q2, we've got exactly the orders we expected to get 24% growth in Intelligrated year-over-year. They came in late. They came in late in September, which were adversely when they come that late, and it's still projects kind of business, it takes at least a couple of months to convert orders, at least to begin the convert orders into revenues. So probably we won't see more of that until we get to next 2020.But the other expectation I want to highlight is, we're expecting another robust booking quarter in Intelligrated in Q4 this year. So, I think we're -- I'm not worried at all about what's going on Intelligrated. I think the market is being challenged in the first half of the year, when you look at data points from Siemens and some of our industry competitors, I think we're very much in line or even better than some of that. So, I think we're...
Steve Tusa:
One last quick one for you, just on Aerospace. Is the -- can you just talk about what the combination of any kind of potential headwinds from upgrades from this year, combined with kind of the Honeywell specific growth initiatives, whether it's connected or anything like that. Is that a -- is that a neutral to next year, year-over-year? Is that a still a positive, a slight negative? Can you just discuss the kind of dynamics between those two moving parts?
Darius Adamczyk:
I'm sure. I think the short story is kind of neutral. I think what we get into next year is probably a little bit tougher comps given the double-digit growth rates. So I think that that's realistic. There are some puts and minuses. I mean, is the 737 Max, we anticipate we'll be back in service next year. So that will get a little bit more OE probably some of the older aircraft will not be flying, so we'll probably have a little bit more of the aftermarket stream. I think, with Business Aviation, we'll continue to be robust, we're very bullish on Defense & Space, we're seeing good growth in Space and the helicopter markets again.I think probably the toughest things on a year-over-year basis will be the comps, the comps will be tougher, but I'm not sure there is any kind of major one timer's that I think would prevail in terms your RMUs and so on, we're continuing to invest in our MPD engine on that, that's been very successful for us. And then obviously Forge will grow. So that's, those are kind of the major puts and takes.
Steve Tusa:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Yes. Thank you. Good morning everybody.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Hey, just a couple of things from me. First, could you just elaborate a little bit on what's going on with the net below the line items? What's driving the change from your prior outlook to the current outlook restructuring and other [Indiscernible]?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, it's primarily the $0.03 favorability, again roughly $30 million in the third quarter, a lot of that has to do with foreign currency and there's still number of the things below the line. So basically the $50 million delta is $30 million of our actual 3Q and a $20 million roundabout lower number in the fourth quarter. Again, there's no huge needle mover in there and there's going to be a range that number too, I mean, we say about 155 but that will move around little bit as well.
Jeff Sprague:
I mean, there are some other stuff moving around like other income and pension and the like. What's the actual restructuring outlook for Q4?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. We've got a sizable capacity. If you remember, I think we book something like $300 million of restructuring in 2018 in the fourth quarter. And we've got capacity loaded in there for something similar. We're working our pipeline. And as we always do we continue to carry that restructuring pipeline and we'll take advantage of the projects that we have as we exit the year.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think maybe Jeff, just something else to it. We kind of give you a point number on below the line impact, and I think that's approximately. I think we're probably going to revisit that for next year, because it really isn't a point number, there is some movement in it, it can happen from quarter-to-quarter and I think just to be that precise and give you that precise number, it's probably a little bit inaccurate.I mean, we try to get as close as we can to our estimates, but we have some moving pieces in there, that Greg just described. So I think we had -- I don't think there was anything major that move. There is no major assumption changes, but couple of little things move $20 million, $30 million which given the size of our company isn't much, and you'll get a different outcome. So I wouldn't read too much into it.
Jeff Sprague:
Understood. And then just on the projects, the late -- the long cycle order dynamic. So I am quite encouraging, can you just elaborate a little bit on the cash flow impact of that, it does sound like maybe the cash cycle on some of this is stretching out a little bit. What kind of opportunity do you see perhaps to unlock some more cash from working capital or other elements into the next year?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I would say that's, you use the right word, it's the cash cycle, I wouldn't call it a problem. I mean, we had obviously very strong projects related results as we were in last year and then coming into the early part of this year and that's cycle down a bit with the, with the orders pattern that we had seen previously. And now if that cycles back up, you're going to restart the advanced cycle on a lot of those large projects and so we expect to start seeing that coming back through.And then, we continue to do a lot of work around inventory as well. Our inventory while it hasn't been a huge -- year-over-year cash flow comp problem for us, it's still growing and we're trying to take that down every year as we try to become more and more efficient. So we're still working our initiatives around trying to drive that inventory down as well and we hope and expect that's going to be supportive as we continue to move into the fourth quarter and into next year from a free cash perspective.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. As Greg pointed out, I think the biggest mover for us here in the Q3 was sort of this movement around the advances/unbilled in much of our projects business, that's really the biggest needle mover. We got a lot of our orders delay. We weren't able to collect the cash. And from a last year perspective, a lot of those orders came in earlier in the year. So we had the benefit of the advances, that's not the case this year and that was a big swing. I would it -- maybe not as big of a factor, but our reinvestment ratio was the highest in Q3 versus the whole year. So that's probably the other backdrop, not the major one for the cash outcomes.
Jeff Sprague:
Great. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey. On PMT and process in particular, it was impressive to hear about these projects in Russia and China. We've heard from your competitors in process about push outs of projects in particular. And are you seeing push outs anything at the margin that you'd call out?
Darius Adamczyk:
We were actually very pleased of our global major projects this quarter, I mean we were up strong double digit, actually in that segment. So that was one of the really nice stories for us for the quarter probably even better than we expected. So really, really nice progress and Q4 looks quite robust as well. So hopefully we'll be able to secure those as well, but I think that was one of the more positive stories for us in the quarter and good orders growth in Russia, China, some of the economies that have been, that are presumably challenge but frankly we're not seeing that.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And this might be a bit of a rhetorical question, but based upon the upside in Defense & Space this quarter, the 17% growth in core revenues and commentary about 2020, are you -- do you see Honeywell disadvantaged at all in some of the defense industry consolidation that we're seeing?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. I don't. We're not generally a final system provider. We are component Tier 1 provider to those. I don't think that calculus changes with the consolidation that's happening. We'll continue to be a good supplier to a lot of those integrators and system providers, but I don't see that dynamic changing.
Deane Dray:
That's helpful. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Deane.
Operator:
Moving next to Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning. Maybe just first question around, if you look at how demand trended in recent months, you'd called out Intelligrated picking up late in Q3, and also some of the HBT activity in Europe. I wonder if there was anything else that you would highlight that got better or worse over the past sort of two or three months as you moved through it. And also maybe how your own repositioning and CapEx spending plans may have changed when you're thinking about 2020 if at all?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, in terms of kind of some of the changes, I think we had a relatively slow start in Europe for month one and month two of the quarter and they were little bit concerned heading in to September, but September actually was very, very robust than economies like Germany, France, the UK, all did very, very well. So we had – although we were worried, but September was very, very robust much better than sort of what the industrial GDP print would have you believe. So that was certainly better.Can as we think about 2020 it's probably, as Greg pointed, it's probably we have tougher economic environment in 2020 that is in 2019. But on the flip side of that, I don't see some fall off the cliff. I don't – as I look at our backlog, as I look at our growth rates in terms of the long cycle businesses, level bookings we have for Defense and Space, SPS pick up that we're expecting, reasonable comps for aerospace although tougher but maybe not double-digit, but still could growth.We're certainly not – we're far from planning 2020 right now based on what we see is doom and gloom kind of a year, that's for sure. And if anything hopefully there'll be some more positive outcomes, looks like Brexit may reach a positive inclusion based on the news we're hearing this morning. Hopefully, there will be more of that positive news to go here in Q4.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. As it relates to repositioning, I think we're – as we go into 2020 we're going to have ample capacity to continue driving our reposition portfolio and pipeline as we have this year as well. So I expect that to continue to be a big part of our productivity playbook for 2020 also.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks. And then just following-up maybe on SPS specifically in that context, you're now in the third quarter of your organic sales decline in that business. When we're thinking about the longevity of this downturn, should we assume a classic sort of short cycle duration of maybe five quarters of sales decline there and then the recovery post that? And highlights of that, maybe just gives an update on how comfortable you feel with the market share in productivity products in particular?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, I think as we've stated in the last quarter, I think productivity products is the business where we're focused on some improved commercial activity. We saw some good signs of that in Q3. And if you look at the margin profile, incremental margin profile from Q2 to Q3, it was better. The team has adjusted their cost structure to the market reality or their revenue base, but yes, I mean, I think we're trending in the right direction. So, we do expect productivity products to return to growth in 2020, that's very much our expectation. Based on what I'm seeing today. I don't see anything which would prevent us from doing that. So, I can't tell you whether it's exactly five quarters or three or four, but we expect growth in 2020 is kind of the short story.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you very much.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from John Walsh with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
John Walsh:
Hi, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
John Walsh:
Just I guess a question around price and maybe also a little bit discussion around the price cost equation, it looks like at least per the Q price decelerated a touch in Q3, but obviously the very strong margin performance, I would assume you're pretty green on price cost, but can you maybe talk a little bit about that dynamic and how that's playing out in the next year as we're kind of still seeing some input deflation?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I mean, we've continued to have a strong cadence around our price across the company. So, as we head into next year, I'm not expecting that we're going to hit a wall and not be able to continue to get price in the marketplace. And as you said the cost, as markets are slowing down we're also doubling down on our procurement team in terms of driving our material cost deflation program as well. So we're going to keep pushing hard on both of those levers and expect that to be a net positive for us as we go into 2020.
John Walsh:
Got you. And then maybe just on highlighting the balance sheet capacity, I mean anything to call out there as we look into next year, if there might be anything to do on the deal front, obviously you announced some small things in the release today, but how should we think about the use and the deployment of that next year?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, I mean, so first of all, we continue to be very active with our M&A pipeline and there is a lot of things going on today as we speak, particularly given everything that's happening in the marketplace and we hope that, that will actually have a benefit as we go forward in terms of asset prices possibly coming down and making some things a bit more attractive.As you saw with our stock purchase program, we continue to do that pretty aggressively, and as we go into next year, I think we'll continue to use that as a lever for us, it's been very successful year and I think, barring any large deals, I think we're going to continue to be targeted to take out at least 2% of our share count on a year-on-year basis, so both of those are going to be consistently deployed in terms of our expectations.We did, as Darius mentioned, refinance of our debt, we've got some debt coming due in October. So we refinance that in the third quarter. So we still retain a very, very strong balance sheet with a lot of access to capital and with our strong cash flow and our repatriation program, I think we've got a lot of ammunition for us to go ahead and use as we head into next year.
John Walsh:
Great. Appreciate the color.
Operator:
And that does conclude today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for any additional or closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
I want to thank our share owners for continued support of Honeywell. We have delivered strong results each quarter this year and have continued to make great progress on our initiatives and delivered on our commitments. We are well positioned in attractive end-markets of multiple levers for value creation and operational excellence in place.We are focused and continuing to outperform for our share owners, our customers and our employees. Looking forward to sharing our results, as well as our 2020 outlook during our fourth quarter earnings call in late January. Thank you for listening.
Operator:
Thank you everyone. This does conclude today’s teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Honeywell’s second quarter 2019 earnings release conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for questions following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star, one on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star, two. Lastly, if you should require operator assistance, please press star, zero. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks April. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s second quarter 2019 earnings conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other sec filings. For this call, references to adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and free cash flow conversion, and effective tax rate exclude the impacts from separation costs related in 2018, as well as 2018 pension mark-to-market adjustments and U.S. tax legislation, except where otherwise noted. References to 2019 adjusted free cash flow guidance and associated conversion exclude impacts from separation costs related to the 2018 spinoff. This morning, we will review our financial results for the second quarter of 2019, share our guidance for the third quarter, and provide an update to our full year 2019 outlook, and of course we’ll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you Mark, and good morning everyone. We’re excited to be hosting our call this morning from Charlotte, North Carolina, which will officially become our corporate headquarters on August 1. It is an exciting time to be part of the Honeywell team as we continue to transform our business into a premier technology company with Charlotte as our home base. Let’s begin this morning on Slide 2. It was another very strong quarter for Honeywell. We again delivered on our commitments, generating earnings per share of $2.10 at the high end of our second quarter guidance, up 9% excluding the impact of spinoffs in 2018. This strong earnings result was driven by organic sales growth of 5% and 170 basis points of segment margin expansion. Notably, our segment profit excluding the spins, on a comparable basis to 2018 was up 9% this quarter and was the largest contributor of EPS growth. For the first half of 2019, organic sales growth reached 7%, which is a proof point to the investments we’ve made in our business, in our sales force, and new technologies that are winning in the marketplace. We continue to see the benefits from our strong positions on key platforms in our long cycle business aviation and defense portfolios in aerospace, in our warehouse automation business, which is up over 20% organically year-to-date, and now generates approximately $2 billion in annual sales in our building technologies business, which had another great quarter. Our process solutions and UOP businesses, which principally serve the oil and gas industry, also both grew 5% organically this quarter as we continue to be encouraged by the progress we are making in the Honeywell connected enterprise, which drove double-digit organic sales growth of our software in the quarter. In fact, this quarter we signed a framework agreement to deliver Honeywell Forge asset performance management and improve the reliability and performance of over 1,000 industrial assets for a large Middle Eastern refinery. Segment margin exceeded 21% in the second quarter, up 170 basis points driven by smart portfolio enhancements we made in 2018, our investments in the commercial organization, and the benefits of previously funded restructuring to improve our operations. Excluding the favorable margin impact from the spinoffs, segment margin expanded 80 basis points, which was 30 basis points above the high end of our guidance. Building on the progress we have seen for several quarters, we delivered 100% free cash flow conversion and we remain on path to approximately 100% for the second year in a row. I am encouraged by our progress in this area and we remain focused on continuing to drive improvements in working capital. We also continue to extend our capital deployment strategy, repurchasing $1.9 billion in shares and closing four new Honeywell venture investments in the quarter, bringing our total to 12 new investments in the first two years of the fund. As a result of our first half performance, we are raising the low end of our full-year organic sales guide by one point to a new range of 4% to 6% and raising the low end of our full-year earnings per share guidance to a new range of $7.95 to $8.15. We expect to generate approximately $6 billion in free cash flow for the year, and we have narrowed our free cash flow guidance to reflect this. While we are encouraged by our performance this quarter, we are continuing to plan cautiously for the second half of the year given the uncertain macro environment in which we operate. We’ve seen some slowing in certain short cycle businesses that has been overcome by the strong performance in the rest of the portfolio. We think it is prudent to plan conservatively in the event of a broader slowdown, given that nearly 60% of our business is short cycle in nature. I’m very pleased by our performance in the first half. We still have substantial work to do to achieve our plan, but I’m confident that the team will continue to execute. I’ll stop there and turn the call over to Greg, who will discuss our second quarter results and updated 2019 guidance in more detail.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks Darius, and good morning everyone. I’d like to begin on Slide 3. As Darius highlighted, we delivered on our commitments again in the second quarter, building on the strong start we had in Q1. Organic sales growth and margin expansion performance across the majority of the portfolio was very good. A few highlights to mention - defense and space grew 20% organically and the commercial aftermarket in aerospace grew 8% organically with strong demand across both air transport and business aviation. Building technologies grew 5% organically after 9% in the first quarter, and process solutions and UOP, which encompass our oil and gas portfolio, both grew 5%. The impact of the spin-off of Garrett and Resideo, both lower-margin businesses, contributed 90 basis points of segment margin expansion. The remaining 80 basis points was the result of our strong operational performance, primarily in aerospace and performance materials and technologies. We continue to effectively manage the impacts of tariffs through well-executed mitigation efforts and are in the final stages of eliminating all spin-related stranded costs before year end. Notwithstanding our strong performance across most of the portfolio, as we messaged in April and again in May, we did experience challenges in safety and productivity solutions, and more specifically in the productivity products business, which drove a sales and segment margin decline this quarter. I will address that in more detail in a minute. Consistent with last quarter, the majority of our earnings growth - $0.16 - came through segment profit improvement. We realized a $0.06 benefit from our share repurchase program which resulted in a weighted average share count of 733 million shares this quarter. Our effective tax rate was 21.5%, largely consistent with the outlook we provided of 22%. Importantly, we were also able to fund a substantial amount of fast payback repositioning in the quarter, more than $80 million, that will support our continued productivity focus, functional transformation, and supply chain initiatives that we discussed at our investor day in May. These proactive measures will be helpful in the event of a slower economy in the coming quarters. Finally, adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was $1.5 billion with conversion of 100%. The strong cash generation was most notable in aerospace and building technologies. We’re very pleased with our results and are focused on continuing the strong performance in the second half. Let’s turn to Slide 4 now to briefly discuss the second quarter EPS bridge. Slide 4 walks our earnings per share from the second quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019. As Darius mentioned, segment profit growth was the main driver for the quarter. That acceleration was most prominent in aerospace and PMT due to a combination of higher organic sales volumes, commercial excellence, and our continued focus on productivity. We also continued to utilize our balance sheet to lower our share count. We deployed nearly $2 billion towards the repurchase of Honeywell shares, consistent with our plan to reduce the share count by at least 1% during the course of this year. Finally, we had a $0.05 headwind on an adjusted basis from below-the-line expenses, primarily due to the proactive restructuring actions I mentioned earlier and lower pension income year over year as a result of the derisking actions we took in 2018 that was partially offset by benefits from net interest expense and foreign exchange. Funding a strong pipeline of future repositioning continues to be a key lever for our productivity playbook and will serve us and our shareholders well as we go forward. The punch line here is we had another high quality quarter, delivering EPS at the high end of our guidance range. Now let’s turn to Slide 5 and we can discuss our segment performance. Starting with aerospace, sales were up 11% organically. This marked the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth and capped off an outstanding first half for 2019. Defense and space grew 20% organically led by global demand for guidance and navigation systems as well as increased spares volumes on U.S. DoD programs, including the F-18 and F-22. The defense business is well positioned. More than 50% of firm orders with delivery through 2020 are already booked. In commercial OE, sales were up 4% organically driven by continued strength across the business jet platforms which more than offset declines stemming from the timing of air transport shipments. Notably we saw increased deliveries across all Gulfstream platforms and strong avionics deliveries on certain [indiscernible] platforms. Regarding the Boeing 737 Max situation, we remain aligned to Boeing’s stated production schedule and will continue to monitor the situation closely, but as we stated previously, we do not anticipate a significant impact to Honeywell’s operational results in 2019. Aftermarket sales were up 8% organically driven by demand across both air transport and business aviation and growth in retrofit, modifications and upgrades, including related to the ADS-B safety mandates. We continue to see good adoption of our connected aircraft technologies which drove strong software sales growth in aerospace and continued to gain traction for our JetWave solution across all aerospace verticals, as demonstrated by the C-17 win we announced in May, our first in the defense business. Aerospace segment margin expanded 330 basis points, driven by commercial excellence, higher sales volumes, and margin accretion from the spin of transportation systems. The spin contributed approximately 60 basis points to aero’s total margin expansion. The aero business continues to execute well, investing in future technologies, driving productivity and commercial excellence, and has a healthy long cycle backlog heading into the third quarter. In Honeywell building technologies, sales were up 5% organically driven by global demand for commercial fire products. As Vimal Kapur and his team displayed at our investor conference in May, we are innovating and launching new products in this business at a much faster rate than we had in the past, and we continue to see good acceptance from our customers and strong growth as a result. We saw good growth across building management software platforms, including for Tridium, which as you may remember is our platform for integrating building management systems and data using open and proprietary communication protocols. In building solutions, we drove growth in global projects across the Americas and in the airport vertical in the Middle East. HPT’s segment margins expanded 390 basis points in the second quarter driven by the favorable impact from the spinoff of the homes business. The team continues to make steady progress on our goal to eliminate the remaining stranded costs by year end stemming from the home spin. Segment margins excluding the favorable impact from the spin accretion were roughly flat this quarter, a big improvement from the first quarter, and we continue to make progress on supply chain optimization post the spin. Overall, it was another great quarter for the HPT business with double-digit projects backlog growth in building solutions positioning the business well for the second half of 2019. In performance materials and technologies, sales were up 4% on an organic basis. Process solutions sales were up 5% organically driven by continued strength in our short cycle businesses, primarily in software, maintenance and migration services, and field instrumentation devices. We also saw growth in smart energy primarily in North America. The short cycle backlog of across process solutions is up over 12%, giving us confidence that the growth in the automation portfolio should continue into the second half. UOP sales were up 5% organically driven by growth in licensing and engineering, as well as refining catalysts. We saw particular strength in North America with reinvestment in existing refining infrastructure and select new investments in petrochemicals, and strong backlog conversion in the Middle East. UOP orders and backlog were both up over 10% for the quarter. Additionally, on a year-to-date basis UOP orders in China were up double digits, primarily driven by growth in equipment, licensing and catalysts. Organic sales growth in advanced materials of 2% was driven by demand for our Solstice line of low global warming refrigerants and blowing agents; however, this was partially offset by lower pricing due to the impact of illegal HFC imports in Europe. Enforcement and monitoring of the EU F-gas regulation has been an emerging challenge and we’re working diligently in partnership with other producers, EU regulators, and EU member countries to address the harmful illegal imports. Overall, PMT segment margins expanded by 140 basis points in the second quarter, driven by commercial excellence across all lines of business, direct material productivity, and further improvements in our supply chain. Finally, in safety and productivity solutions, sales were down 4$ on an organic basis in the quarter as segment margins contracted 420 basis points. The weakness we saw this quarter was principally in our short cycle, high margin productivity products business. Similar to the first quarter, we saw a combination of continued distributor inventory destocking, fewer large project rollouts in the mobility space, and lower channel sell-through. The second quarter sales mix in SPS negative impacted our margins as the volume declines we experienced were in more profitable parts of the business. We continue to see growth in our sensing and IoT business and robust demand for voice solutions and aftermarket maintenance and services in warehouse automation. As Darius mentioned during last quarter’s earnings release, Intelligrated is beginning to face tougher and tougher comps as we get deeper into the year following five quarters of approximately 20%-plus growth. We are seeing timing of new major system rollouts push into the second half of the year. This effect coupled with tougher sales comps in the second quarter drove flattish sales in Intelligrated in Q2. The large project order push outs we saw in Q2 are consistent with our customers’ latest planning and not an indication of project losses. Intelligrated’s aftermarket business, which enhances customer outcomes through consultative engagements to improve productivity, was up strong double digits organically driven by demand for comprehensive life cycle support and service. The business is benefiting from the large installed base growth in the core Intelligrated portfolio. The outlook for this business overall remains very strong and we delivered organic sales growth of over 20% for the first half of 2019, and we continue to expect this to be a growth business long term. Within the safety business, organic sales growth was 1%. We saw continued demand for gas detection products, which grew low single digits organically, and retail footwear, which was up high single digits organically. That was largely offset by decreased volumes in general safety and personal protective equipment. In our key end markets for the safety business, we see solid demand of portable gas detection in the U.S. but slower activity in the industrial sector, given distributor inventory levels. Let’s now turn to Slide 6 and discuss our third quarter outlook. Our planning assumptions are largely consistent with the second quarter dynamics with some further caution on short cycle. We expect our growth this quarter will be driven by a combination of continued long cycle strength in aerospace and defense coupled with short cycle demand in building technologies and healthy backlog in UOP and process solutions. The aerospace business, as I mentioned, has grown 10% or more organically the past four quarters and we expect continued strong performance due to the order growth rates and backlog in defense. We’ve established a significant backlog of new major system awards for Intelligrated over the past year that will drive growth into 2020 and allow for an expansion of our shorter cycle aftermarket and service businesses. We are taking a cautious view on the short cycle growth as many of the macro signals - the China GDP, U.S.-China trade tensions, and Brexit, just to name a few - are still clouding the economic outlook. We think it’s prudent to plan conservatively given the uncertainties, and our Q3 and second half guidance reflect that. As it relates to the sale of weapons to Taiwan by the U.S. government and potential sanctions from China, we see no reason why Honeywell would be potentially sanctioned by the Chinese government and we have received no official word from the Chinese government that Honeywell is on a sanctioned list of entities. Now let’s discuss our segment outlook. In aerospace, we continue to see robust demand in both business aviation and in U.S. and international defense, supported by robust orders growth and firm backlogs for orders with delivery into 2020. Air transport shipments should increase sequentially driven by demand for A-350 and A-320 aircraft and lower customer incentives. We will see tougher comparisons in business aviation given the significant organic sales growth in the third quarter of 2018. Consistent with last quarter, we expect that commercial aftermarket activity will be driven by flight hours, airline demand, and further tailwinds from the adoption of safety and compliance mandates, principally in business aviation. In building technologies, we expect good growth with strength primarily in commercial fire products in Americas and EMEA and growth in building management software in high growth regions and for Tridium. On the service side, we expect to see building solutions growth continue given the large order funnel and considerable backlog growth in projects and services. As a reminder, HBT does have significant short cycle exposure particularly in the products vertical, and although we haven’t seen order rates flow, we are planning cautiously here in the second half. In performance materials and technologies, we expect to see short cycle demand for products and services and process solutions and growth in equipment, absorbents and refining catalysts in UOP. We saw good bookings in equipment and catalysts in the second quarter and growth in the process solutions service bank for new contracts and renewals, which we believe sets PMT up for another good quarter in the third quarter. Finally, given the challenges we experienced in productivity products and our assumption that the inventory destocking continues for the balance of 2019, we are expecting to see continued headwinds in SPS from both a sales and segment margin perspective, but anticipate that will moderate in the fourth quarter. We expect Intelligrated’s third quarter performance to be similar to Q2 with 20%-plus growth in the aftermarket business but slower large project growth. We maintain a robust backlog of project awards from blue chip customers and see a very strong pipeline of potential awards in the third and fourth quarters. The net below-the-line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, will be minimal this quarter. The difference year-on-year is driven primarily by lower pension income, the benefits from spin indemnification payments partially offset by higher repositioning funding. Now let’s move to Slide 7 to discuss our revised full-year guidance. As Darius noted, e are raising the low end of our full year organic sales, earnings per share, and free cash flow guidance. Our organic sales guidance moves one point in the low end to a new range of 4% to 6%, while our segment margin guidance is unchanged. Our revised earnings per share guidance of $7.95 to $8.15 represents earnings growth of 8% to 10% adjusted, excluding the impact from the spins in 2018. We remain on track to deliver approximately 100% free cash flow conversion. Our position on tariffs is unchanged. We expect no significant impact in 2019 given the proactive measures we have taken to mitigate. We also continue to closely monitor the Brexit situation and are communicating regularly with our customers, partners and suppliers. As we stated last quarter, we’re planning for various potential Brexit outcomes, including a no-deal Brexit scenario, to ensure that as the terms of the U.K.’s departure from the EU are finalized, we are well positioned to continue meeting our customers’ needs. Our guidance continues to reflect a weighted average share count of 731 million shares and an effective tax rate of approximately 22%. Our net below-the-line expenses are now expected to be approximately $120 million in 2019. This reflects slightly higher reposition expense charges partially offset by greater interest income. We continue to be confident in our ability to execute and in our outlook. We’re sticking to the playbook around short cycle caution given the macro uncertainties that remain in the second half of the year. With that, I’d like to turn the call back over to Darius, who will wrap it up on Slide 8.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks Greg. We are encouraged by the performance from our businesses thus far in 2019. We continue to execute on our commitment to share owners, are generating strong organic growth in many end markets, and have multiple levers to enable further margin expansion. Our operational performance is generating strong free cash flows and conversion while investing in the business to ensure we are well positioned for the future. I’m also encouraged by our progress with the business transformation initiatives we discussed at our investor day, particularly given because of the significant opportunity I see in these areas in the future of Honeywell. Let’s be clear - we have a lot of work to do to execute these initiatives, but I continue to be excited by the energy and enthusiasm I see across the employee population to move the ball forward and truly differentiate Honeywell from our competitors. With that, Mark, let’s move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks Darius. Darius and Greg are now available to answer your questions. April, if you could, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator instructions] Our first question is coming from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks, good morning everyone. Nice quarter. Obviously, there’s going to be a lot of questions around the short cycle commentary. I heard you guys say cautious a few times during the prepared comments. As I think about your business today and the safety and productivity solutions side, maybe talk a little bit more why you expect the destock to last and what’s really driving that through the fourth quarter. Secondarily, in that business the commentary around new major system rollouts being pushed out, I’m just curious whether you guys are seeing any saturation in that market.
Darius Adamczyk:
Let’s maybe take that in two segments. Number one is we anticipated some level of destocking to occur. I mean, obviously the distributor levels weren’t supported by the level of business, so what we’ve projected for Q3 and Q4 is some level of moderation, but certainly a continuation of the trend in terms of softness in that end market as the destocking continues. Obviously our plans are a bit better than that, but what I don’t want to do is in the short cycle business, I don’t want to be forecasting too aggressively and then end up disappointing, so that’s kind of what we have baked in particularly into the Q3 outlook, which is still negative, and moderating a bit more into Q4. One of the things we’re trying to really assess, you know, how much of this is market and how much of this is us. That’s still unclear. From the early indications we had, the market is getting softer; but again until we see all the data points and some of our competitors’ report and piece all that together, we’re really not sure. For now, we’re going to assume it’s us, because I don’t want to just say well, it’s the market so we don’t need to do anything. I can tell you, we have a very aggressive commercial program to address some of these challenges and to drive business at the end user level. The good news here on productivity products is this is not a technology issue. We actually have very good technologies. They’ve been successfully launched, most recently in Q2 around our warehouse business and our TLC, which is our strongest segment, so I’m very encouraged by that. That’s really the story on SPF-- or I should say, on productivity products. In terms of Intelligrated, it’s a very different story. Intelligrated has been growing by strong double digits, like think well north of 20% on average for the last several quarters. What’s happening there is simply some of the orders that we expected in Q2 got pushed out a little bit. They’re still out there, we expect to book them in Q3, Q4. We didn’t lose them - I know that for a fact, and the business is going to continue to grow and we’re very bullish on the business, so there isn’t a greater or a different story here. The business is gaining share, it’s performing extraordinarily well, we see a little bit of a blip in delay in terms of the order bookings, and that’s what we accounted for in our outlook.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, I would also just add that the aftermarket business, which as you know--you know, capturing the installed base and then going and mining the aftermarket is a big part of that whole thesis, is doing terrific. We’re up over 20% on the LSS business and have been for multi quarters, and as you know, that also carries a higher margin profile so I think that part of the playbook is working nicely.
Joe Ritchie:
That’s helpful to hear. Obviously, we’d prefer for you guys to be prudent as your planning assumptions go for the second half of the year. I guess in that vein, you started the year off with roughly 7% organic growth above where your organic guide is for the year, long cycle backlog still plus-10%. What is then the embedded planning assumption for the short cycle businesses? It seems like you’re planning for very, very low growth, if any growth, in short cycle in the second half of the year, and maybe what are some of the puts and takes you’ve got there.
Greg Lewis:
Well again, Joe, the productivity products one is a big contributor to that, but you’re right - for the remainder of the short cycle businesses, I would say outside of maybe the aerospace aftermarket, we’re planning for low-single digits. Again, as we’ve seen, that can turn very quickly, so we don’t want to get too far out ahead of our skis there.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think you have it right, Joe. Think LSD for short cycle, think MSD to maybe even a touch higher for the longer cycle, depending upon the segments, but that’s sort of the rough math. The punch line is we are planning somewhat cautiously for the second half because the geopolitical and the economic movements are pretty volatile right now, and what we try to do is we try to guide that somewhat cautiously based on what we’re seeing today. The short cycle is somewhat unpredictable and can turn very quickly.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it, thanks guys. I’ll let others get on the call. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from John Inch with Gordon Haskett.
John Inch:
Morning everybody. I think, Greg, you had mentioned that you are taking proactive steps for Brexit, in case there’s a hard Brexit. What exactly does that mean? Does that means you’re sort of stockpiling--
Greg Lewis:
Yes, it’s really about certifications, John.
John Inch:
Okay.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, it’s really about certifications and making sure that certified bodies in the EU are going to allow the product flow to continue. So, we’ve been basically recertifying our products with other EU bodies, as opposed to the UK bodies that we have many of our certifications through, and that’s been an ongoing effort. We’re substantially complete at this stage, which is very good, and then we’re just also setting up additional triage in terms of actual movement of goods in the event we need to do anything special or different in terms of air freight or premium freight in that sense to get product to flow. Those are really the two things that the teams have been working most closely on, and you can imagine too when you think about that even from our own internal wiring, there’s systems changes and so on that need to allow those things to be true for us internally as well, so that’s what the teams have been furiously preparing for so that we’re ready no matter which way this goes.
John Inch:
How did Europe and China do as regions? I remember China was down a little bit last quarter, obviously given some of the shorter cycle stuff going on there. I think Europe was more resilient. Was there any sort of real change, and change in terms of China and the regional impact, like the Malaysia, Middle East impact? Is there anything else that you would call out there?
Darius Adamczyk:
I’ll take that one, John. I think overall we’re pleased. I’ll highlight a couple of things, for example our PMT bookings in China were around 20% in Q2, so some real strengths. We had some tough comps, think flattish to slightly up for China for Q2, but that’s driven by particularly some of the tough comps that we had in PMT. Overall, obviously there’s some level of concern for the China economy, but overall given the bookings we saw in PMT, that was strong. Europe stayed strong, think low to mid single digits for us, some spotty in places. Germany was strong, Italy not so much, but overall really good growth rates for us. Middle East was very, very strong. We’re very encouraged by that. India was up double digits, very strong growth there, LatAm doing well, so for the most part we’re still seeing pretty good growth across the globe. Granted, China maybe wasn’t what it was last year, but also not a complete meltdown and move downwards, so overall we’re still encouraged by what we’re seeing out there.
John Inch:
Darius, do you feel that the backlog of restructuring projects that you have would be more than sufficient if the cadence of the global economy continues to soften a little bit, or would you actually be looking to do more projects? Obviously you guys are pretty aggressive in terms of your playbook historically. I’m just--
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, well John, I think that’s the highlight--that’s maybe one of the highlights of the quarter. I think we really invested in our future this quarter. We had some very, very attractive restructuring projects, and we wanted to make sure we fund them. We probably could have delivered even higher EPS results in Q2 if we didn’t fund those, but we thought it was prudent, particularly in this level of economic uncertainty, to fund those restructuring projects now, particularly given the kind of pay backs we saw in those. But the real answer to your question is I guess it all depends upon how much of an economic hit we would take. We’re kind of protected to the levels we’re forecasting. If those economic cycles are deeper than that, then obviously we’d have to do more, so it’s a bit of a wild ride, as you can see right now, with news items coming every day. But we do what we do all the time, which is we plan cautiously, more productivity, and if the environment is worse than we anticipate, then we’re going to take another round of cost actions to offset those.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, just so you know, the repositioning pipeline is a process just like a sales pipeline or an R&D pipeline. We’re working that at all times so that we are ready when the opportunities present themselves from a funding perspective, and obviously as the economic environment moves, so that’s absolutely part of our routine at all times.
John Inch:
Got it. Thanks very much guys, appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you, good morning everyone. Maybe we can follow up on some of Joe’s beginning questions on the push-outs that you’re seeing. For Intelligrated, the push-outs, are they attributed to anything in particular? Is it macro uncertainty? Do you have any sense of what’s driving the delay in capital commitment? Then similarly, one of your competitors in process has been talking about seeing big project push-outs out of the second quarter into the third and fourth quarter. I’d be interested if you’re seeing some of those dynamics as well.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I’ll start with Intelligrated. I’m not sure there’s a single cause for that. Some of these projects are fairly substantial from a capital perspective, and there’s timing around board meetings and so on, but we have an indication from our customers that these projects will happen, so I don’t anticipate they’ll result in cancellations. The timing is always unpredictable on large projects. We expect some of those to land in Q3. It wouldn’t shock me if they land in Q4, but they’re not disappearing and they’re not being cancelled. In terms of the large projects, PMT had a pretty good booking quarter overall. It was stronger in UOP than it was in HPS. We’re seeing something somewhat similar on the large projects per se - those are sliding to the right a little bit, but we saw some other strong bookings particularly on the shorter cycle, some of our services business, our advanced solutions, our software businesses, so it’s been a bit of a mixed story when it comes to larger projects, maybe perhaps those are sliding a little bit to the right. But our backlog grew, our bookings were good in PMT, and we anticipate a pretty strong second half of the year.
Deane Dray:
Across the shorter cycle portfolio and the softness that you’re seeing, are you seeing any competitors beginning to use price as a weapon here to drive some volume? Take us through the portfolio and where pricing may have seen some of that pressure.
Darius Adamczyk:
I think all short cycle isn’t the same. As we look at HBT, I think our short cycle has actually stayed fairly strong. I think the results speak for themselves, it’s been a really good first half for our HBT business, and we actually are expecting that to continue into Q3. The business is doing very, very well. In SPS, it’s the productivity products issue that we talked about earlier. I can’t really necessarily point to price. I mean, as the market is softer, pricing becomes more of a challenge - some of that is definitely true, but I don’t want to point at competition, that this is necessarily any kind of a pricing thing. I mean, yes, there is greater level of competition when markets get softer - that’s true.
Greg Lewis:
But we’ve had--I mean, we’re getting price and we’re getting growth still in the short cycle currently, again with the exception of the productivity products story, and then as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, in the HFC business, that’s one place where we’re seeing a very specific competitive move going on with some of the illegal imports coming in, into Europe. That’s really the only place that I would highlight as something really visible that we can see competitively.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes.
Deane Dray:
Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Good morning guys. You guys are putting up pretty predictable numbers each quarter, and it just begs a question, you spent a good chunk of the investor day talking Forge and connectivity and all these interesting things you’re working on, and also the supply chain stuff. Is there any way to measures your progress in these areas, like for example the big margin gains you had this quarter, could you ascribe any of that to supply chain, or is that still out there to come?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, let me start taking this. I think in terms of a lot of our ISC transformation, I can’t--you know, we are in the--we’re not even in the top of the first. We’re grabbing the bat at this juncture, so that’s something that you’re going to see a lot more pronounced really in 2020 and beyond. We’re just getting started, so I’m not going to tell you there’s a lot attributed to the ISC transformation. You probably shouldn’t expect much until 2020 and beyond. In terms of Forge and our software play, I think that really the best way to measure that business is growth. That’s the single biggest metric I use and is it profitable growth, and I was very pleased with what we’re seeing - double digit software growth, margin that’s accretive to Honeywell, margin that’s very attractive, and we’re gaining traction, we’re winning jobs. We pointed to a large Middle East win that we had, which is very large in scope, and our customers trust us, so I’m very pleased with the strategic progress we’re making. But our measures are typically financial in nature, because you can make yourself feel good by looking at actions. If you look at financials, and especially for Forge and connected enterprise, ultimately we look at the growth rates and they’ve been double digits, which is good, which was unexpected.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, and the other thing I guess I would highlight is internally, we’re looking obviously at recurring revenue streams and trying to continue to enhance our recurring revenue streams, so that’s something that as we measure the progress in the connected, that’ll be one that we watch as well pretty closely.
Scott Davis:
Okay, makes sense. I just have a question about Intelligrated and the sales cycle. When you install--when you do the big project, presumably there’s some sort of warranty period. When do you start getting aftermarket from those installs?
Darius Adamczyk:
It’s after the completion and turning over the project over to the user, because a lot of times we’ll get the service contract as soon as the job is complete, and granted there are some things that are under warranty, but we’re trying to have the same approach with the Intelligrated business as we do with our HPS business, where we have these longer cycle, the Assurance 360-type of contracts, and we’ve had great traction in that, over 20% growth in Q2. By the way, I’m not indicating any kind of a slowdown in this business. I don’t think we can expect the 20%-plus growth rates that we’ve seen, but we think that this is going to be a high single digit, double digit growth kind of business. What we’ve seen that although the push-outs of the orders, although disappointing, the good news and the fact that our strategy is working is this, which is our services business was up over 20%, it enabled that business to have an accretive margin to what it had last year, and the strategy we’re trying to execute is working. Unfortunately we can’t control the timing of when the orders land, but I can tell you that they’re not due to losses.
Scott Davis:
Just a quick follow-up on that. At what point does aftermarket become a bigger piece than the install revenues? Is it three years out, five years out?
Darius Adamczyk:
To be honest, Scott, I hope not for a while, right, because that means that our project cycle is slowing. But you know, it’s a bit of a function that still the projects business is the predominant component in that business, so what would have to occur is the services businesses are already growing at over 20%, the projects business slowed a little bit this past quarter. I actually hope that we get more of the projects, and I think that will happen. I don’t think that this is now the sign of, oh God, the warehouse automation segment is slowing. I think that this could be a blip for a quarter or two and it will resume, but that’s really kind of how things will work, is ultimately the projects business will slow down - I don’t think that’s necessarily now - and the LSS is going to become a bigger growth component of the business. We kind of saw a little bit of a preview of that in Q2, but I don’t think that’s a long term trend yet.
Scott Davis:
Okay. Good luck, thank you guys.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Steve Tusa with JP Morgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey guys, good morning. Just so we’re all on the same page here on the SPS thing, how should we think about the absolute profit for the third quarter, and then I know you guided to something like a $1.1 billion or something like that for the year, are we kind of just south of a billion for the year now when it comes to profitability? Then just as a follow-up, a pretty big miss - you guys were out at EPG not too late, but late May. Did something change significantly in June, or was this something that you knew about but there was enough offset in the rest of the portfolio that you didn’t feel the need to call it out?
Darius Adamczyk:
Steve, let me start with the second comment and then I’ll turn it over to Greg. In terms of SPS and more specifically productivity products, I think we called it out both in our Q1 earnings reports and John talked about it at our investor day. I think that we were pretty clear that this is going to be another quarter where we’re going to see destocking and some challenges on commercial, so I think that--you know, was this a little bit greater than we anticipated? Yes. Did we signal it? I think we did, and maybe specifically didn’t talk about it at EPG but we certainly did at our Q1 earnings call, and John talked about it specifically at investor day. I’m not sure that we’re shocked by what we saw. Like I said, it’s a little bit more pronounced than we anticipated, but not totally out of whack with our expectations.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, then on the profitability front, Steve, I think given the mix of sales that we’re seeing in the second quarter, I think it’s going to look fairly similar in Q3, so I would expect margin rates to be in that same range of 11%, 12% type margins in the third quarter. Fourth quarter should get a little bit better, but that’s how we’re thinking about it as we exit the second half.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, so 225 to 250 in the fourth quarter, something to that extent on segment profit?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, the margin rates are going to be in that--again, similar range.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. One last quick one. When you guys talk about short cycle, to me when I look at the results - you know, commercial, aftermarket, and some of the shorter cycle stuff in PMT, building technology is perfectly fine, you’re really--you’re not necessarily talking about all short cycle. It seems like it’s an SPS type of dynamic, and how bad was the scanning and mobility side, the stuff that you compete with Zebra on? How negative was that in the quarter?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think that’s right, Steve - this story is really about productivity products. That was what we signalled, a little bit worse than we thought, it wasn’t a good outcome, and it was down for the quarter, so it was a little bit down, more down than we thought. Some of that is--you know, my guess, although I want to emphasize I don’t know yet, because I always assume it’s our issue, not a market issue, I think there was obviously some issues in the market and market slowing. We’ve had some early data points which would indicate that and some commercial execution things that we need to fix, as well as really the destocking thing was the biggest factor. Frankly, the inventory levels really exiting 2018 are unsupported by the business levels, and some of our distributors are taking actions to do that. So that’s really kind of the negative story. You’re right - it’s not widespread, it’s predominantly limited to one business which didn’t have a great Q2.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, and that’s why you guys planned conservatively for the second half. Thanks a lot, appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Gautum Khanna with Cowen & Company.
Gautum Khanna:
--$1.9 billion of stock in the Q, I think that’s a multi-year record or close to it. Are you still thinking $4 billion repo in the year, and then also another--a second question is, if you could please just speak about the M&A pipeline and whether or not you’re seeing anything attractive. Thank you.
Mark Macaluso:
I’m sorry. This is Mark, can you repeat the question? We missed the first part of it.
Darius Adamczyk:
You got cut off in the beginning.
Gautum Khanna:
Oh, I’m sorry about that. My question was related to the stock repurchase - you bought $1.9 billion in the quarter. Are you still thinking about $4 billion for the year? The second question was if you could just give some color about the M&A pipeline and whether you’re seeing anything attractive. Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Sure. You’re right - $1.9 billion was a fairly healthy amount of repo in the quarter. I think we’re about $2.6 billion on a year-to-date basis, and all of that is still aiming at getting the 1% reduction from year to year, so $4 billion for the year is probably in the right neighborhood of where we’ll land. Obviously some of that depends on the share price performance for the remainder of the year, but I think that’s a reasonable assessment of what the end of the year will look like. Then as it relates to the M&A pipeline, we continue to be active. I wouldn’t say we have--you know, other quarters, we’ve come in and talked about having things that were right at the one yard line that didn’t happen. I don’t think we had anything that was quite that close in this particular quarter, but we continue to be very active across all four of the businesses, and then as we’ve talked about, we’re ramping up the activity particularly in HPT, given the fact that that business is now on much firmer footing.
Gautum Khanna:
Okay, thanks. If I can squeeze one more in here, what are the demand trend expectations for PMT in the second half? What sort of growth are you looking at for those--for UOP, HBS and advanced materials?
Greg Lewis:
Think about that as mid single digits. Again, with the backlogs that we have entering the back half of the year, we think mid single digits is a very reasonable spot for PMT.
Gautum Khanna:
Okay, thanks guys.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Jeffery Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you, good morning everyone. We’ve spent a lot of time on SPS for good reason, but let’s talk aero for a moment. The margins were extraordinarily strong there, stronger than I might have guessed given the mix. I know you’ve got some commercial-like margins in part of your defense and space business, but can you give us a little bit more color on what really played out in the margins in the quarter and how you see the rest of the year playing out there?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think that margin growth is really a testament to the execution prowess of the aerospace team and a lot of our strategies are working. I think sometimes we forget that our software business isn’t just in Honeywell connected enterprise, it’s also in our avionics franchise, and that group has done a tremendous job in really shifting its focus through RMUs and upgrades and enhancements, and we saw the benefits in that because it obviously has accretive margin rates. They’ve done a great job at driving productivity in the business, so although--you know, this is that ultimate combination we also want to see, which is you drive productivity while getting good growth and you really expand the margins. Obviously focus on the connected enterprise and connected aircraft is helping margins as well, good growth on spares. The BGA market is very, very strong right now, both in terms of OE and aftermarket. It’s a testament to a lot of the great wins we’ve had on the platforms, but also supporting our customers in flight. And then lastly but certainly importantly, defense and space has just been on fire and just about any segment to want to look, we’ve been there, whether it’s helos, whether it’s the U.S., international defense, all those segments are doing well. I think this is really an important fact, Jeff, that as we look from now through the end of 2020, end of 2020 we have more than 50% of the business already booked, so we’re really in really nice shape as we look into the future.
Jeffrey Sprague :
Great, thanks for that. Just back to this China question, I fully understand your position and statement this week as it relates to this. I wonder if you have seen or how you would keep an eye out for maybe more subtle pressures, not only on your but obviously your--you would see it in your own business, but any indication that U.S. or western companies are just getting a little bit of the cold shoulder around the edges, or any other kind of behavior change in the business that you’ve picked up.
Darius Adamczyk:
No, I don’t. I think as Greg pointed out, I know we’ve received interesting press on this subject, but we have seen no indication from China authorities that there are any sanctions coming our way. We have received no sanction. I think I’ll point to a couple of things. Number one is we received our first Jetway order in China, which is very promising. I mentioned the PMT bookings in China were very, very strong in Q2. China is an important market for us, we play it locally, we have a lot of manufacturing, a lot of R&D facilities in China, it’s a market that we take great pride in serving local for local, and we expect that to continue.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Great, thanks a lot.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Thank you. Maybe just a first question around overall cadence of demand in recent months. Your organic sales growth was 8% in Q1, it’s guided at the midpoint at 3% in Q3, so a pretty severe slowdown with comps that are not that different. Aside from what you’ve talked about in SPS, have you seen any changes in demand in recent months? Several companies talked about June being materially worse than the rest of Q2. Just wondered what you’d seen recently in that respect.
Greg Lewis:
Hey Julian, it’s Greg. We haven’t seen any really clear patterns like that across the portfolio that would cause us to say that June is the beginning of a huge slowdown, so across the portfolio I would say the answer is no. But as Darius mentioned earlier, the portfolio is not one thing, and so I expect that we’re going to see different dynamics across the different parts of the portfolio and across different parts of the globe. Darius talked about the strength in Europe earlier, and there’s a lot of strength there because the aerospace business is doing particularly well, and as long as flight hours stay strong we expect to see Europe continuing to do well there. The dynamics in China, as we mentioned, are strong on the long cycle side with UOP orders, so we’ve got a very strong backlog in PMT in the short cycle businesses. So far, the answer, no real pattern down, but it’s something we absolutely watch as you would expect.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, and just to maybe add to that, actually if you look at June on a year-over-year organic growth basis, it was our best month. Now granted we saw some softness in SPS which was pronounced, and that’s why we have a bit more of a cautious guide for Q3. That’s really the reason, is we’re not expecting a miraculous turnaround in SPS in Q3. Some of the softness we saw in June, we actually anticipate may continue and that’s why you see our guide, but overall if you look at total Honeywell organic, June on a year-over-year basis was actually our best month of the quarter.
Julian Mitchell:
Great, thank you for that detail. Maybe just picking up on your last point, Darius, within SPS, the warehouse and workflow solutions piece, revenue growth there was 7% in Q2 after 50% growth in Q1. What should we expect in the second half in terms of warehouse and workflow solutions sales trends specifically? Do you expect to pick up from Q2 as some of those orders get realized, or you’re leaving it as sort of a single digit growth assumption for now?
Darius Adamczyk:
If you’re referring to productivity products, which I think there’s kind of two different components, we don’t expect a major turnaround here in Q3. Like I said, we still expect that to be negative for Q3 and some level of moderation in Q4. As it comes to Intelligrated, we’re still expecting high single digit, double digit growth for the year. Q3 is a little bit dependent upon exactly when we land some of the orders, but think about--you know, we’re now getting into the tougher and tougher comps, so we’re thinking about single digit kind of growth rates for the second half. But again, just to be clear, that’s depending upon when those orders come, because we’re ready to execute those and we have every indication that they’ll land. Obviously getting those sooner in Q3 would be better; getting them later or pushed out to Q4 would be worse, and that’s a little bit tough to predict, but I’m very bullish on our ability to secure those orders when they do land. That, I’m not that concerned about.
Julian Mitchell:
Perfect, thank you.
Operator:
The final question is from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi, good morning guys. Just a couple of, I guess, more clean-ups than anything else. I think we’ve beaten SPS to death, so hopefully John can take the rest of the day off. On aerospace specifically, clearly commercial air aftermarket doing very well. I want to make sure that there’s nothing unsustainable there particularly as it pertains the Max grounding, maybe with some of these older aircraft filling the schedule that aftermarket gets a little bit of boost and we shouldn’t expect all of that to continue. I know the trend line is good, I just didn’t’ know if there was a little extra that you got out of the quarter.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I would say this - there is probably a little bit of that, where you had more older aircraft flying vis-à-vis, but that’s not going to have the kind of dramatic impact on our results. I wouldn’t say that that’s really the cause and effect. I think as long as the air miles stay strong, as long as the economy stays in reasonable shape and people continue to fly business aircraft and buy business aircraft. Defense and space business - like I said, we’re already more than half booked for the next 18 months. Things can always change, but overall we’re not--this is not an area where we’re concerned. We should have very good visibility to Q3 and Q4. Obviously this is a long cycle business. Short cycle continues to look strong, so overall I don’t think that this is some kind of a blip or unusual event here in Q2. I think this is evidence that our strategies are working the aero team is executing.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it, that’s helpful. Then just back on the topic of inventory, I know that that’s clearly driving some of the activity in SPS, but as you look back on maybe the second half of ’18, are there any businesses that now with the benefit of hindsight you can say, maybe we saw distributors take on more inventory than perhaps they were selling through and it’s something we’re watching a channel here and there, that you can share with us or we should keep in mind as we go into the second half?
Darius Adamczyk:
Like you said, hindsight is always 20/20. I think the distributors to some extent play the same role we do, is they want to be prepared for good markets and they want to be prepared to sell out product, so could you say that they took on a bit more inventory than they should have? Well, yes. Hindsight, that’s clearly the case. Yes, you’re right - we are watching days of inventory, we are bringing that down. It came up out Q1, it came down in Q2, we’re planning to have it again come down in Q3 and get it to a much more lower level. That’s really the--you know, if we want to focus around the negative punch line of the quarter, and overall I think this was a very strong quarter for Honeywell, but if we want to focus on the negative, which is fair, that’s really the punch line. We’ve got to get those inventory levels moderated to levels that our distributors are comfortable with, and we planned that for the first half, we’ve got a little bit more to do in Q3, and we’ll see around Q4. Obviously the variable we don’t know is sales out, because if that goes up, then we have leftover product; if it goes down, we’ll have more work to do. So short answer is yes, we’re monitoring it and we’re going to be very closely watching it here for--well, forever, but certainly for the second half of this year.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Great, thanks. I’ll leave it there.
Operator:
That concludes today’s question and answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for any additional closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
I want to thank our share owners for their trust and support of Honeywell. We have made great strides in 2019 but we still have a long runway to continue our progress. We are focused on continuing to outperform for our share owners, our customers, and our employees. This quarter marks the start of a new era for Honeywell in Charlotte, North Carolina and I could not be more excited about what lies ahead for this company. Thank you all for listening, and have a wonderful, relaxing and safe rest of the summer. Take care, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today’s teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's First Quarter 2019 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Mark Macaluso:
Thank you, April. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's first quarter 2019 earnings conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. For this call, references to adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow, free cash flow conversion and effective tax rate exclude the impacts from separation costs related to the two spin-off of our Homes and Transportation Systems businesses in 2018 as well as pension mark-to-market adjustment and U.S. tax legislation except where otherwise noted. References to 2019 adjusted free cash flow guidance and associated conversion exclude impact from separation cost related to the 2018 spin-off. This morning, we'll review our financial results for the first quarter of 2019, share our guidance for the second quarter and provide an update to our full-year 2019 outlook. And as always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on slide two. Honeywell had a tremendous first quarter delivering earnings per share of $1.92 or $0.07 above the high end of our guidance range and up 13% excluding the impact of the spins in 2018. The strong earnings performance was driven by organic sales growth of 8% and 120 basis points of segment margin expansion. Our outstanding top-line results were driven by continued strength in our long-cycle commercial aerospace, defense and warehouse and process automation’s businesses. In addition, we achieved a significant improvement in Honeywell Building Technologies which delivered 9% organic sales growth in this quarter. The first full quarter following our 2018 spin-offs after 1% in fourth quarter of 2018 for all of Honeywell, our long-cycle backlog increased more than 10% year-over-year and continues to position us well for the remainder of 2019. The investments we made in our sales organization, new product development and M&A in the warehouse automation business coupled with our winning positions under right platforms in aerospace continued to drive outstanding top-line results. Segment margin exceeded 20% in the first quarter, driven by smart portfolio enhancements made in 2018, continued investments in sales excellence, increased sales volumes, and the benefits of previously funded repositioning projects. I’m also encouraged by the improvement in gross margin, which increased 300 basis points in the first quarter. Our concerted efforts to improve working capital generated adjusted free cash flow of -- growth of 55% excluding separation costs and the impact of the spins in 2018. Conversion in the first quarter was 82%, the highest start to the year since 2010, represented a 14-point year-over-year improvement. I’m extremely pleased of the progress we've made in this area while continuing to invest in our business. As a result of our first quarter results and continued confidence in our ability to deliver, today we’re raising our full-year organic sales guidance to a new range of 3% to 6% and earnings per share guidance to new range of $7.90 to $8.15. We continue to expect to generate nearly $6 billion in free cash flow with conversion in the range of 95% to 100%. As I said in January, Honeywell is a simpler, more focused company that continues to overdeliver on its commitments. We are encouraged by our results, particularly organic sales growth and free cash flow, which were two of my top priorities when I took over as CEO. Notwithstanding the strong start to the year, we continued to take steps to ensure we can deliver on our commitments in a potentially uncertain macro environment, should things slow down in the second half of 2019. We took significant actions in 2018 to transform the business, the results of which we see in our performance today. Our combination of strong sales growth, favorable end-market exposure and significant balance sheet positions us well for the remainder of 2019. I will stop there and turn the call over to Greg who will discuss our first quarter results and updated 2019 guidance in more detail.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. I would like to begin on slide 3. As Darius mentioned, we delivered another strong quarter across all of our businesses. 8% organic sales growth was the highest we’ve seen since 2011 and an acceleration from 6% in the fourth quarter of 2018. All the markets we serve remained strong. A few highlights to mention, commercial aviation OE grew 10% organically, driven by demand for new business jet platforms; defense and space grew 13%, continuing the trend of strong double-digit sales growth. Building Technologies grew 9% organically with strength in commercial fire and security as well as in building solutions, particularly in India and China. And our warehouse automation and sensing and IoT businesses delivered another quarter of double-digit organic sales growth, just as they did throughout 2018, leading to 10% organic sales growth in Safety and Productivity Solutions. The impact of the spinoffs of our Homes and Transportation Systems businesses, both lower margins than the portfolio, contributed 80 basis points of segment margin expansion this quarter. The remaining 40 basis points was a result of our strong operational performance, continued investments in commercial excellence initiatives and increased sales volumes. We continued to effectively manage the impact of tariffs and material and labor inflation through our ongoing mitigation efforts, and we made further progress on the elimination of all spin related stranded costs by the end of 2019. However, we did see some volume declines in our productivity products business which contributed to lower margin in SPS in the quarter. I'll discuss that in more detail shortly. The majority of our earnings growth, $0.15 this quarter, came from segment profit improvement. We realized the $0.06 benefit from our share repurchase program, which resulted in a weighted average share count of 739 million shares in the quarter. Consistent with our first quarter guidance, our effective tax rate was approximately 22%, which generated $0.04 benefit year-over-year. You will find a bridge of our first quarter earnings per share in the appendix of this presentation. And finally, adjusted free cash flow in the first quarter was $1.2 billion, up 55%, excluding separation costs and the impact of the spins. As Darius mentioned, we continue to see strong cash generation, particularly in Performance Materials and Technologies and aerospace in the quarter. We’re very pleased with our results across the board. Now, let's turn to slide four and discuss our segment performance. Beginning with Aerospace with sales up 10% on an organic basis, we continued to perform extremely well in today's robust demand environment, driven by our strong positions on the right platforms. Notably, this marked the third consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth for Aerospace. Defense and space grew 13% organically, led by continued global demand for sensors and guidance systems, increased spares volumes on the U.S. DOD defense programs, and robust shipment volumes on key OE programs, including the F-35. Commercial OE sales were up 10% organically with increased shipset volumes across all Gulfstream platforms, increased avionics deliveries on the Dassault F900 and F2000 aircraft and increased engine shipments for the Textron Longitude. We expect this momentum to continue in the coming quarters. In the commercial aftermarket, sales were up 8% organically, driven by strong global airlines demand and tailwinds from ADS-B safety mandate. In addition, we saw robust connected aircraft growth, driven by demand for JetWave and business jet software offerings. Aerospace segment margins expanded by 250 basis points, driven by commercial excellence and margin accretion from the spin of Transportation Systems. The spin contributed about 80 basis points of Aero’s total margin expansion. Before we move on, I just want to take a moment to address questions we received regarding the unfortunate event surrounding Boeing 737 MAX aircraft. At this time, based on our customer’s current production schedules, we do not anticipate a significant impact to our 2019 results. We will continue to monitor the situation as we move throughout the year. Now moving to Honeywell Building Technologies. Organic sales growth was 9%, driven by strength in commercial fire products and improved demand for our security offerings. We saw robust demand for our Niagara software platform, as well as further improvement in supply chain execution, which have been impacted in the back half of 2018 by the spins. Project’s growth in building solutions was also strong, particularly for international airport installations in the Middle East and Asia Pacific. The projects backlog in building solutions was up over 15% at the end of the first quarter. Stepping back for a minute. This quarter's performance is a result of specific actions taken by the new HBT leadership team, which is moving the business in the right direction. The team is building out its sales force and capacity, investing in innovation and they are executing the commercial excellence playbook to deploy and train a high-quality sales team. They’re also focused on improving delivery and execution and are making steady progress to eliminate the remaining stranded costs related to Homes spin. HBT segment margin is expanded 240 basis points in the first quarter, driven by the favorable impact from the spinoff of the Homes business. Overall, we are very pleased with their first quarter and are encouraged for the future. In Performance Materials and Technologies, sales were up 5% on an organic basis. Process solutions sales were up 7% organically, driven by broad-based demand in automation, including for our maintenance and migration services, and field instrumentation devices. Orders in HPS grew at a double-digit rate for the third straight quarter, and advanced materials sales were up 4% organically from ongoing demand for flooring products, including for our Solstice line of low global warming refrigerants and blowing agents. UOP sales were up 1% organically for the quarter, driven by demand in gas processing and hydrogen, particularly -- partially offset by a tough year-over-year sales comparable and licensing and timing related decline in catalyst shipments. We again saw strong orders and backlog growth in UOP up 6% and 8% organically across engineering, equipment and catalysts, which is a positive sign for future sales growth. PMT segment margins expanded 140 basis points in the first quarter, driven by commercial excellence, higher sales volumes and productivity, including the benefits of previously funded restructuring. This largely offset the impact of material and labor inflation. Finally, in Safety and Productivity Solutions, sales were up 10% on an organic basis. Intelligrated continued to outperform with another strong quarter of double-digit sales growth, driven by the conversion of our major systems backlog, aftermarket services and increased demand for Vocollect voice solutions. We also saw double-digit sales growth in our sensing and IoT business, which was a continuation of the double-digit growth we achieved in 2018. Our China business also generated double-digit sales growth. Productivity Solutions sales was partially offset by decreased volumes of scanning and mobility products due to slower project ramp-ups and planned distributor destocking, mostly in North America. We highlighted this potential weakness in the business in early March. We anticipate that the productivity products business will improve in the second half of the year but are planning conservatively in the second quarter, given the decline we experienced in Q1. Moving to the Safety business. Sales were approximately flat on an organic basis. Growth for gas detection products and retail footwear was offset by softer demand for general safety products and personal protective equipment. SPS segment margins contracted 250 basis points, driven by decreased productivity products, short-cycle volumes, the impact of inflation and unfavorable mix stemming from the significantly higher sales in our warehouse and automation business, which offset benefits from commercial excellence and productivity. Overall, the trends in our end markets are largely consistent with what we discussed in February. We remained confident in our businesses and our view is supported by strong long-cycle orders and backlog growth. Our focus on smart growth investments, breakthrough initiatives and new product development coupled with continued productivity rigor has positioned us well for the remainder of 2019. With that let's move to slide five, and we can discuss our second quarter outlook. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we anticipate that the business environment will be largely similar to Q1 with strength primarily coming from our long-cycle portfolio in commercial aerospace, defense and warehouse automation. In aerospace, we continue to see robust demand in both commercial aerospace and defense with growth in narrowbody production rates and increased business jet deliveries as several new models have recently entered into service. We expect the commercial aftermarket to continue to be strong driven by flight hours, airlines demand, and further tailwinds from the adoption of safety and compliance mandate. The industry dynamics of defense should continue to be positive, both in the U.S. and abroad. In Building Technologies, we anticipate continued momentum in commercial fire and security. The second quarter typically encompasses the peak season for demand in these markets. We expect continued conversion of our long-cycle backlog in building solutions and growth in services. In PMT orders and backlog growth in UOP and in the automation businesses and process solutions should drive another quarter of strong sales growth in Q2. In HPS, we expect continued short-cycle demand in maintenance and migration services, and field instrumentation devices. In UOP growth, driven by licensing, engineering and gas processing demand while in advanced materials, we expect to see continued adoption of Solstice products in refrigerants in foam applications. Finally, in Safety and Productivity Solutions, we expect the strong e-commerce and warehouse distribution macro trends to continue, as well as growth in maintenance, services and voice solutions. We're expecting additional destocking in our distributor channel will drive a decline in mobility, scanning and print in the quarter. On the safety side, growth should improve sequentially in both gas detection and personal protective equipment, and we anticipate continued demand in the retail footwear business. For total Honeywell, the net below the line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax will be approximately a positive $30 million to $40 million next quarter, driven by increased interest income and benefit from the spins’ indemnification payments related to asbestos environmental expenses, partially offset by lower pension income due to 2018 pension derisking actions we took, all as previously guided. Our guidance assumes a weighted average share count of 734 million shares and effective tax rate of about 22% and earnings dilution from the 2018 spin of approximately $0.19 in the quarter. Now, let's turn to slide six and we can discuss our revised full year guidance. We have revised our full year sales and earnings per share guidance to reflect our strong outperformance in the first quarter. We continue to be encouraged by our business performance and outlook. However, we are remaining cautious with regards to the short-cycle portion of our portfolio, given the macro uncertainties that remain in the second half of the year. We are raising our full-year organic sales guide by 1 point on both the low and the high end to a new range of 3% to 6%. Our segment margin expansion and free cash flow guides are unchanged. We remain on track to deliver 95% to 100% free cash flow conversion while investing in the business through high return CapEx and research and development. The revised earnings per guidance represents earnings growth of 7% to 10% excluding the impact of the spins in 2018. We continue to expect no significant impact in 2019 related to tariffs. We have mitigation actions in place including to address the impact of potential tariffs and all remaining items imported from China. We are also closely monitoring the potential effects of Brexit on our operations and are communicating regularly with our customers, partners and suppliers around these plans. We are planning for various potential Brexit outcomes, including a no-deal Brexit scenario to ensure that as the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU are finalized, we are best positioned to continue meeting our customers' needs. Our guidance continues to reflect a weighted average share count of approximately 731 million shares and an effective tax rate of approximately 22%. Our net below the line expenses are now expected to be in the range of $60 million to $70 million of net expense in 2019, slightly down from original estimate of $80 million in net expense. The minor change is due to slightly higher full-year estimates for both pension and interest income. With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Darius who will wrap up on slide seven.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Greg. The first quarter was an outstanding start to 2019 for Honeywell. We continued to execute on our commitments to shareowners and accelerate organic growth from last quarter. We have winning positions in attractive end markets with multiple levers to deliver continued margin expansion. Our operational performance is driving adjusted free cash growth and conversion. All of this combined with innovative new product offerings, and a strong backlog positions us well for the second quarter. We’re continuing the business transformation initiatives I outlined during our outlook call, including in Honeywell Digital, a unified software business in Honeywell Connected Enterprise and the increased focus on improving our supply chain execution. You will hear more about this and other exciting things happening in Honeywell at our 2019 annual investor conference, which will take place on May 14th. With that, Mark, let's move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks Darius. Both Darius and Greg are now available to answer any questions. April, if you could, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Steve Tusa with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
So, just kind of doing the -- lot of companies betting on kind of back half acceleration, you guys are just mechanically the opposite and just doing the normal seasonality analysis around the businesses. Is there anything specifically that worries you in the second half because I'm getting to obviously something that's a lot higher, based on just basic normal seasonal analysis on both organic as well as the EPS numbers, and obviously this wasn't a perfect quarter, given PMT and UOP, which seemingly with the backlog, should bounce back nicely, and maybe have a bit of a slowing in other businesses, I don't know. Just curious if there's anything that stands out that you're concerned about in the second half of the year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I guess I’ll start. I don't know that there is anything that really concerns me in the second half of the year. I think what's an unknown in the second half of the year is short-cycle business, that's sort of the big unknown. And I think the signals are mixed. I think, overall, we were pleased with our outcome in Q1, but this short-cycle business is very much that short-cycle and all of those things looked good in Q1. They can look very, very different in the second half. On PMT, I don't know, Steve. I'm pretty happy with the PMT outcome for Q1. Whether you look at bookings, revenues, margin expansion, I'm not sure I'm really disappointed with those results at all. I am actually very, very pleased. Then when you think about things like HPS projects up strong double digits, backlog up, out book-to-bill up 1.2 in the long cycle business. I don't know that I can -- that there is much to be disappointed about there.
Steve Tusa:
Yes. I guess my only point was on UOP. It was flattish this quarter and it should accelerate. There are reasons for it to accelerate. So, I am saying that's not a reason for it to be -- for revenues to be weaker in the second half of the year. Okay. That makes some sense. Just lastly on -- to nitpick here on SPS, what is going on with the productivity business? I mean the tone at ProMat sounded reasonably positive. Is there anything going on with the launch of Mobility Edge that's moving around a little bit? Just curious, little more color on the SPS business because that was a little bit weaker than we were expecting.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think that's fair. Yes. I think, couple of things. The first one being, we had some destocking in our distributor -- at our distributors. We anticipated some of that. Frankly, it was a little bit greater than we had anticipated and we think that that's actually going to continue in Q2. When you look at the product sub-segments, actually the mobility did okay. As we look at the sell-through figures for productivity products, the mobility did quite well. It was probably more of an issue on the destocking on the scanning and that's where we saw a little bit of the pain points. But I will tell you that in the second half of the year, we are anticipating growth in that business. We anticipate filling some larger orders and the destocking situation should normalize. So, yes, this Q1 wasn't exactly what we had hoped for, but I'm also bullish on the long term of the business.
Steve Tusa:
Sorry. One more quick one. Have your priorities on capital allocation changed at all? Are you guys -- given where multiples are today, are you thinking maybe a little more buyback than acquisitions. Are you still on the hunt with this pipeline?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. No, I think, it's just -- unfortunately environment hasn't changed. We would like to steer more of our deployment toward M&A, but I'm also trying to stay disciplined and the multiples continue to be high. So something is going to have to give, but having said that, we have been deploying more toward buybacks and we deployed a lot last year. Average share purchase price was right around $150, and that includes -- that's prior to the spin-off of Garrett and Resideo. So if you look at where we are today, I think, that's proven to be a pretty good investment. And we continued with another $750 million in Q1, which also it looks to be -- and I think when in doubt, bet on yourself, because there's -- we feel great about the Company, we feel great about our prospects, we're going to continue to perform as indicated by our backlog positions, our bookings and so on. We're very confident Honeywell is going to continue to perform and thus a little bit more skewed toward buyback, but don't read into that that we're not interested in M&A. We're just trying to be disciplined and pay good valuations that are reasonable which is extraordinarily challenging in this environment and you see the multiple being paid.
Steve Tusa:
Yes. When you're beating and raising and growing 6% to 8% you can be patient. So I get it. Thanks a lot.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Just two things from me. First, just back on channel inventories, maybe more broadly, is there anything that stands out in your businesses, especially in the shorter cycle businesses, where there was some type of pre-buy or something that's created elevated inventory that you're planning for some give back on beyond what we've seen in productivity solutions? Maybe just a general state of play there and your visibility to the extent that there is any on the short-cycle.
Darius Adamczyk:
No, there was a little bit in terms of n ERP pre-buy, because we had done some ERP conversions. And as you know, sometimes they don't go as smoothly as planned. So we generally had a little bit of a buy-in, but I don't think that was accelerated. I think there was a little bit of a mismatch between sell-out expectations and buy-in expectations, and it was particularly pronounced in productivity, especially in our scanning business. And those things just take a little bit time to normalize. And we are very confident in that portfolio. We've got a new set of products coming out here again, particularly in the warehouse and distribution segment, which we think is very interesting. So, I'm not particularly worried about it. And like I said, we are projecting growth for the second half, but there isn't sort of something systematic here that's concerning. And a lot of our HBT portfolio is also short-cycle, and you saw the kind of figures we posted there and I was extremely pleased with the organic growth that we saw in HBT, which is also primarily a short-cycle businesses as well, other than HBT -- yes, as projects [come up] [ph].
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then, secondly, unrelated, just on the project related work in general, in process and where it may spill into gas processing in UOP, just what is the nature of the activity you're seeing? Does any particular sub vertical jump out, meaning refining or LNG or the like? And just any color there on forward pipeline would be interesting.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean I think the LNG segment is continuing to be active and we are waiting with some final investment decisions to be upcoming, but whether it's UOP business which participates there as well as HPS, it's continued to be a very active segment. Our gas processing business and although this kind of -- this price of oil makes the unconventional segment appealing, there's also a greater level of discipline by a lot of that unconventional players in terms of cash generation, which there used to be a bit more build out the infrastructure, drill and so on. Now they want to be self-sustaining in terms of their cash flow. So the environment is good, but it's also little bit more disciplined. But anytime you see this kind of depreciation in the price of oil, we feel pretty good about the entire PMT segment. Refining with the clean fuel segment, that also continues to be an opportunity, particularly in segments like Latin America, then of course, clean fuels for shipping as well. So sort of broad-based strength and whenever you get to this kind of an oil price, we feel very confident in the outlook for PMT.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
There is not much to pick on in this quarter for sure. Are you guys surprised that -- just the pace of how strong things were? I mean China was supposed to be a little slower, Europe was supposed to be a little bit slower. It doesn't seem like that happened at all to you guys though. Can you give some color, maybe Darius, around the world what you saw?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. Scott, this is Greg. I mean, I think we were pretty pleased with what we saw across the globe as you mentioned. The US, obviously, a large part of our growth was up double digits. Europe continue to be good for us, I'd say, mid-single digits, as well. Middle East, very strong, up strong double digits in virtually every business. China for us was down slightly, but that was really not structural in nature. We've had some very large wins in UOP that we're burning off some backlog on. So the remainder of the businesses were up double digits in both HBT and SPS for example in China, PMT down a bit. We expect that to turn positive. And I think we've guided low single-digits in China for the year in the last call and I still think that's probably about right for us. India was a very strong story for us, again, across all businesses, up double digits. So I think on balance, we had a very good performance. Obviously, the 8% total top line, better than we had anticipated, with all of those cylinders firing in the same direction at once.
Darius Adamczyk:
Just to add to that, maybe is, I just would highlight the HBT performance. I mean, I think we're starting to see the seeds of better performance in HBT, and when you are close to 9% number, I think that makes us feel good. We've got some more NPD coming, particularly even more so in the second half of the year than the first. So I'm very optimistic in terms of what we're seeing in that business. And overall, the environment is good. I mean I think the market didn't quite get this right in December. I think that December was doom and gloom and recession is here and as you can see by our results in Q1 and as Greg pointed out, we see strength across the globe. We didn't have a market that really stood out to us, and said okay, that's a train wreck. I mean, everything was either up or up a lot. So, overall, we're pleased with what we're seeing so far.
Greg Lewis:
The only thing I would mention too is, back to the second half and our views there is, some of the macro risks, let's say, they're not gone. They just got pushed to the right, Brexit is an example, the US-China trade situation. So things that we thought might have perhaps come to a conclusion in Q1 just haven't and have pushed to the right and I think that's also helped from a market sentiment perspective.
Scott Davis:
Good color. Just switching gears a little bit, the connected enterprise initiative, how much of a headwind is that on margins right now or is that turned into more of a neutral?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. That's actually accretive to what we do and by the way that grew in the teens again, so that…
Scott Davis:
I'm sorry, I meant the ERP, your ERP rollout, not your growth initiative.
Greg Lewis:
Sorry. ERP rollouts, we're in very good shape. Yes. I mean we continue to move down the path. We talked about the fact that we were at 148. I think we finished at -- in 2016, we finished at 71, and we're probably going to take out another 20, or so this year on our path to getting down to 10 core platforms by 2021. And we continue to make good progress there. Lots of -- as you can imagine, lots of integrated planning going on to make sure that there is business readiness. We've got obviously all the IT readiness there, but we've got to always manage the change that goes along with the combination of ERP moves and business requirements. But feel very good where we are, it's not been disruptive and I think we've got a good solid plan to make sure that we don't put too much in any one quarter or in any one business to add business risk.
Scott Davis:
Okay. But it still is a mathematically headwind, though, is that correct Greg.
Greg Lewis:
When you say mathematically a headwind, what you mean?
Scott Davis:
Just on the payback. I mean are you at the point yet where the payback is greater than what your dollar output is?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I mean, from a savings and a cost out perspective, we are now at a place where our run rate cost savings has certainly ramped up, where 93% of our revenues are on our core 10 platforms. So we have hit the majority of the scale, that I would say, that we're going to get from a cost productivity perspective and most of the things that were remaining on the roadmap are cleaning up more of the smaller items.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think if you were to look at this, Scott, on a year-over-year basis, the impact is, I would say, very, very slightly accretive, but negligibly so.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I mean the run rate of deployment costs that we've got in the P&L is roughly flat year-on-year and each year, we're obviously adding some run rate benefits to the P&L overall.
Operator:
Okay. And our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
In terms of margin expansion guidance for the full year, aero and HBT are tracking well ahead of that, PMT is at the high end of the range. How do we think about continued runway from here in margin expansion? And maybe as my follow-up on SPS, I understand margin mix pressure and maybe a little bit of inflation, how does that play out throughout the rest of 2019? Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So, Sheila, our guidance for the year remains at 30 basis points to 60 basis points, I believe, at this point. We've talked about that being our framework and what we continue to do is add initiatives and elements to be able to continue having that runway in front of us. And so, with things like our connected enterprise growth, which is margin accretive from a software business perspective, with our digital transformation efforts, Scott, just mentioned, things like the productivity around the ERP deployments, as well as just our HOS Gold playbook, that's driving commercial excellence into each of the businesses, and then, again, our continual repositioning pipeline, we see that 30 basis points to 50 basis points framework, that we've laid out, as very much sustainable over the coming years. So on a portfolio basis, we feel very good about where we are in that regard. Now, as we mentioned, with this year, we're always talking about the elimination of stranded costs. We continue to see some of that impact in the first part of this year and that will dissipate. We've talked about having those stranded costs eliminated by the time we get to the end of 2019, and that will be fully behind us. So, broadly speaking, feel very good about the margin expansion potential. It is a portfolio. In different quarters and years, some business will have more or less opportunity depending on where they are in particular. And then, as it relates to SPS, and the mix component, with very high growth in the Intelligrated business as -- when we bought it, it started out below the line average for margins, and we continue to improve that as we've integrated that business, but it is still below the line average for the rest of the segment. And so as we get through the destocking in productivity products and we normalize, let's say, to perhaps growth rates that aren't multiples of double digits per quarter in Intelligrated, we expect to see that SPS margin rate continue to improve throughout the year.
Darius Adamczyk:
I think maybe just to add a couple of things. The framework has changed a little bit, what you're seeing is, you're seeing a much strong organic growth rate and a margin rate increase, still, that's very much, what we've committed long-term to our investors, which is the 30% to 50%. We are like smack right in the middle of that, but at a rate -- at a growth rate that's substantially higher. But if you're concerned about sort of our continued focus on margin, there is no need to be concerned there, because we have plenty of levers, even just from purely a productivity perspective, whether we think about ERP discussions we had before, the simplification in our ISC performance and overall making that much more simple, direct material productivity, we think we have more room for improvement there as well. We're going to continue to find the restructuring, just like we did this quarter and we anticipate doing more of that in the second half of the year, as well as Q2. And then we still have some stranded costs to go to take out, both in HBT, as well as corporate. So we have a lot of room in terms of productivity. We were hurt a little bit in Q1 because our Intelligrated business is growing -- when I say strong double digits, I mean think really strong double digits and that's not helping the mix. But overall, we're not going to step back from something just because it's lower margin, when you can run it with negative cash flow, as well as that kind of an expansion, which will ultimately turn to a higher margin business once we establish an install base.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
I know Greg touched on this in the prepared remarks on those 737 MAX and I also know you guys don't disclose any of the dollar on the ship sets, but just could you share with us what's on the platform and maybe what your assumptions are and how this plays out, where it does not impact your 2019 guidance?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I think our assumption is exactly what Boeing laid out, which is their reduction in the production rates. We've encompassed that. We've numerous systems on the plane. We do expect that the delivery of these planes and their production rate to resume at the second half of this year. But as Greg pointed out, the impact for us is negligible, certainly for Q2, and I think, given that most -- just about everybody expects a resolution, we do too, we think that that's a terrific aircraft that's going to be back up and flying in the second half of the year. So I think there's really nothing more to add than that.
Deane Dray:
And then, one of the soft spots in the fourth quarter was the whole China air and water dynamic for HBT, didn't sound like that carried into this quarter, but if you could update us there, has that normalized and what are you assuming for 2019?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. Actually, air and water, to be honest, didn't have a great quarter in Q1, but overall HBT did. So, what's even more impressive about their performance is in spite challenged performance in air and water, HBT still grew 9%. So, I'm actually not discouraged by that, I'm very encouraged by that. But overall, I would say, the air and water segment is inconsequential in terms of overall annual performance. And -- but it was a headwind to HBT in Q1 and they still grew 9%. So I view that as a very positive outcome.
Deane Dray:
Good to hear. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe, a first question around the margin profile at HBT. I think you'd called out what the ex-spins margin performance was year-on-year in aerospace. Maybe just give that number in HBT, as well in Q1? And apologies, if I had missed that. And then, also, when you are looking forward for HBT, given the fairly high building solutions weighting in the sales mix, how do you think about incremental margins for HBT overall and managing that solutions mix moving around?
Greg Lewis:
So, yes, in terms of HBT, margins actually were down ex the spins in the quarter, about 100 basis points, and as we talked about, the stranded costs are still an impact to them. When you think about our stranded costs overall, It was about 60-40 between corp and the businesses. So, HBT is still digging out of a little bit of the stranded costs hold, particularly in some of the factory aspects that they have there. So, that we again expect to remediate over the course of the remaining quarters. And then, in terms of the mix of products versus projects, certainly just like we have in our other businesses, it's no different than in PMT and even as we are talking about, with SPS, we do the projects business, is a meaningful part of HBT, and carries a lower profile than the product side as well. So we're always going to be managing through the mix of that overall, but we see -- where we landed for the quarter, I think, we were around 20 points of margin for HBT overall and we do see that progressing throughout the year.
Julian Mitchell:
And then just circling back on the overall top line, I was intrigued on the guidance. You took up the high end of the organic sales growth guide. So just wanted to understand why the low end --
Greg Lewis:
We took up a point on the high end and then a point on the low end.
Julian Mitchell:
Yes. So I understand that the low end would go up because you have a very good Q1 print now in the bag. But taking up the high-end that would imply no slowdown year-on-year for 2019 as a whole. Just wondered if there are any specific end markets or businesses that drove that increase at the high end?
Darius Adamczyk:
I would say, it's our long cycle businesses. So whether we talk about PMT, we talk about the segments of aerospace, HBT, we had a very strong booking quarter and our book-to-bill was 1.2, which was also very helpful. So what we're -- what gave us the confidence for the rest of the year in raising the guidance was the long cycle bookings. Short-cycle, I still will say, is unpredictable. I mean, I think our visibility there is relatively unknown, especially for the second half. And I think there is a little bit of caution that we still have in terms of our second half outlook on short-cycle. We'll see how that evolves. I think you'll see some of the other commentary by some of our competitors and so on, and we're not seeing it in terms of the challenges, but that doesn't mean that they can't and won't exist, but based on what we're seeing in the business, we remain relatively bullish and that's what gave us the confidence in raising the bottom end and the top.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase:
So, I guess maybe starting with UOP, if we could go through the outlook over the rest of the year, backlog up 8%. I know you guys have some tough catalyst comps that you're facing, that's what drove the 1Q. I guess, slight weakness versus backlog growth. If you could talk about when we should expect UOP organic growth to accelerate?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, we expected in the second half of the year. I mean, I think what's important to point out is, we had some very challenging year-over-year comps, especially with our China bookings and revenue conversion that was what drove that. But UOP had a very good orders growth; I mean mid-single digit kind of orders growth. So there is nothing to me in UOP that's screaming a problem. Yes. I mean the year-over-year revenue growth was a little bit flattish, but again driven more a little bit by tough comps and timing. But the number that I always look at for those long cycle businesses is orders and that's mid-single digit, with a strong pipeline and this is not an area of worry for me.
Nicole DeBlase:
And maybe a second question around SPS organic growth outlook. So I know the Intelligrated comps are becoming pretty difficult and I think they get difficult throughout the year, if I'm correct. Correct me if I'm wrong. How do we balance that against potential improvement in productivity solutions as we get through this destocking? Like should we think of the high-single digit growth as potentially sustainable within SPS so long as the short-cycle trends behave?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think you captured it exactly correctly. I think, Intelligrated is going to have tougher and tougher comps as we get deeper into the year, in Q2, Q3 and Q4. I mean, I can only dream that they have another quarter like Q1, but that's probably not completely realistic. So their growth on a year-over-year basis is going to be slower, but it's going to be there. But that should get offset by some of the other segments of the SPS portfolio, particularly in the second half, namely productivity products and industrial safety. So, we think that that will balance out and we're going to continue to see a rate of growth in SPS, which is, I think, mid-to-upper single digits for the year. So that's our expectation right now based on what we're seeing.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi. Please go ahead.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Darius, 8% commercial aviation organic aftermarket growth is the fastest growth we've seen from Honeywell in this cycle. We know aftermarket growth has been a particular focus of the aero team. But where has that improvement versus global flight hours come from? You did mention safety mandates are helping, but is it the uptick in performance-based contracting and increasing growth from connected aero is also helping and so would you agree that the trends toward continuing improved aftermarket growth for Honeywell looks sustainable moving forward?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, I think you've captured a couple of the big levers, where the growth is coming from, because we're moving away from just fixed rate kind of our aftermarket growth. That's certainly a good part of it, but the other part of it is, what I call the proactive aftermarket growth, which is much more around connected aircraft, around RMUs, which generate a lot of value for our customers. As you know, we made a substantial investment in the aftermarket, primarily in the aftermarket sales team, I think, going back two to two and a half years ago, and we've added now almost 250 sales professionals focused on driving proactive aftermarket sales. And you are seeing the benefits of that coming through. So it's both an effort in terms of generating proactive and investing in R&D to generate these RMUs, which our sales professionals sell, and then, obviously accelerated growth in our connected aircraft platform. Those are the two big drivers and I don't see any reason why that isn't sustainable.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
And Darius, maybe just staying on aero for a second, could you give us some more color on your commentary regarding commercial excellence driving margin improvement. Where are you in terms of alleviating supplier constraints within aero? How much more room is there within aero to take G&A and fixed costs in general out and should we be thinking that margin for the year could be a fair amount higher than -- I think you had guided to 24% last quarter for the year?
Greg Lewis:
Sure. Maybe let me try that one on. When you think about our commercial excellence efforts, I would think about that less as a cost reduction effort because what we're trying to do is, enable our sales teams to be more effective, ensure that we're deploying and redeploying sales resources into the right spots. And actually we're investing in things like training to be able to make these sales associates more effective in the markets that they're in, with the products and solutions that they're selling. So we think about commercial excellence less as a, I'm trying to take cost out and more about, I'm trying to drive seller productivity and growth. So I don't know, Darius, if you would add to that.
Darius Adamczyk:
I think I'd agree with that. But as always, we always balance everything with growth in commercial levers and productivity levers. And we put some money to work for restructuring pipeline in aero last year and we're going to continue to do that but. But yes, when we say, commercial excellence, we really mean driving productivity and outcomes growth on the front end of the business.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
I think, Greg, it's fair to say that that 24% guide looks conservative now after a strong start?
Greg Lewis:
I am sorry. The what?
Andrew Kaplowitz:
The 24% guide for the year looks conservative after a strong start to the year in aero?
Greg Lewis:
Listen, I think we feel good about the place aerospace is in terms of their margin expansion potential and that's an area that gives us a lot of confidence for our overall guidance range for the Company.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Please go ahead, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
I'm sorry. Hi. Having a bit of problem here with my phone, sort of hit the mute button. Sorry about that. Good morning. So, covered a lot of ground here already. HBT, the acceleration there is obviously a big break in the trends. And I'm just curious given that the separation of Resideo was -- that was a carve out from the business, do you think that the distraction around that was a factor why sales last year were a little bit weaker, and now we've seen that strength? And then, maybe just address China, because China is obviously where we've seen lot of stimulus, where we've seen some improvement in the product now over there, how important is China acceleration in the HBT performance?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Couple of factors, and the management distraction. There's no doubt that the Resideo was a heavy lift last year for the HBT team. I mean that the amount of separation work that had to be done to create Resideo, particularly vis-à-vis Garrett, is incredible. So I think that that team has did an outstanding job in enabling Resideo to exist and I continue to be very impressed by what they have done. Now, I wouldn't say -- was it a distraction? Yes. It take their eye off the ball on growth? I don't think so. But they certainly have more time to do that this year when they can be very focused on the markets, on what's happening and that team has done a great job and continue to move that business forward. So I'm very pleased. Yes. I mean, China is important for our entire business, not just HBT. We've been there a long time, we want to be a local player. We are local player. As I've talked about multiple times on this call, which is, we very strongly believe in local strategies, where we innovate, where we come up with ideas, where we manufacture, market and sell all in the markets that we participate in and that's certainly true in China. And I think that team has -- the China team in HBT has done a nice job in creating that kind of an offering, so -- with more upside for the future. So overall, I'm not going to declare any victories after one quarter in HBT, but I certainly loved what I saw in Q1 and I'm bullish on the future.
Nigel Coe:
Yes. Thanks, Darius. And quick follow on safety, that the flat performance and safety, sounds like it's mainly channel inventories. But we have heard one or two other players talking about some weakness in safety. So I'm just curious what you're seeing in there and how that results?
Darius Adamczyk:
I would characterize it a lot more as sort of a channel issue rather than anything else. And as we pointed out, that's something we need to -- that should alleviate in the first half of the year, and then we should be back at the right place by the second half of this year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Hi. Just curious if anybody is going to top your organic growth this quarter. Let's see what happens there. Question on software growth. Can you guys -- I mean you alluded to that, but can you just talk about the growth for embedded and stand-alone software and what would stand-alone software business be in 2019 versus 2018?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, as usual, we are expecting high teens to 20% growth in our software business. That target has not changed. We grew in the teens in Q1. So, I think we're very much on track. We kind of called the connected enterprise as really transforming and we are going to be doing some fun things at Investor Day. So, I don't want to give too much away and the day after in terms of new launch. For those of you that went to Hanover, you probably saw a little bit of a hint of that in terms of Honeywell Forge. But I'm excited by what's going on with that team and what they're trying to do. The embedded platform is growing nicely as well. I think mid to high single-digit growth there as well in lot of those platforms. So, overall, it's been an area of emphasis for Honeywell, it's going to continue to be and we're seeing the results in our P&L.
Andrew Obin:
Do you want to talk a little bit about Honeywell Forge ahead of the Analyst Day?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. I can't steal all the thunder. I've got to have something to talk about in May and you are going to have to wait a little bit.
Andrew Obin:
Let me ask a follow-up question on 737 MAX, do you think there will be any working capital impact, just do you think Boeing will behave any differently in terms of managing payments to you during this production ramp down? Should we expect any change in seasonality in aerospace?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. We are not really expecting that. I mean I think we're trying to be as helpful to Boeing and to NTSB as we can to get this thing resolved, but no, I think, from our financial or payment, I don't anticipate that will be the case. And I am confident that Boeing is going to get this issue resolved and we are their biggest fans and we're ready to help in any way we can.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just first question on UOP. I think a few folks have taken a stab at it here, but Darius, you mentioned some good momentum on the LNG side. I think one of your competitors has talked about maybe a mid-year order surge. So I guess the question is, despite the good order growth you've seen, are we still on the leading edge of some of those investments?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, I don't think we need to wait till midyear. I can tell you without getting precise on the numbers that the growth in our orders in our projects business, in HPS specifically, was, let's just call it, a strong double-digit growth. So I don't think we need to wait till Q2 or Q3. We've already seen it and the pipeline remains strong. And yes, whether it's LNG -- and it's more than LNG because it's broad based, but we are very pleased with the kind of orders we've already booked much less what's maybe in the pipeline.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
And does that start to hit in the second half? I guess, it doesn't really look like there's much in 2Q just examining guidance.
Darius Adamczyk:
You mean in terms of orders or in terms of --
Greg Lewis:
You are talking in terms of actually those orders turning into revenue?
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Yes.
Greg Lewis:
Again, as you know those things always have a timeframe to them. So they will probably play out over the back half of the year.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. When you think about HPS orders, most of those don't get executed for a course of 18 months to 24 months and sometimes even longer. So there isn't a very fast conversion from orders to revenue. In some case, that can take several quarters.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. And then just shifting over to some of your short-cycle comments, I think line up with what you said last quarter Darius, but thinking about some of the intra-segment comments, it seems like SPS, there's good momentum, maybe more of a destock, so things can improve from there. HBT, has a good amount of momentum you mentioned in second half, product launches that could augment that further. I guess where specifically do you see that lack of short-cycle visibility or a particular apprehension, because it looks like in a lot of the exposures there is reasons to be maybe a bit more optimistic not more cautious?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, maybe I mean I don't know that I would necessarily argue with you. But actually on the short-cycle, when you get into beyond three months, which is really kind of what we're talking about for the second half, I think, pretty confident in our Q2, I'm not confident that I really can give you great visibility on short-cycle beyond three months. I mean there is nothing that I'm seeing that worries me. You shouldn't read into that that there is some issue that we're trying to cover or protect ourselves. I think it's just a reflection of -- there's a lot of unknowns. And as I stated before on this call, we're seeing some of the commentary by some of our competitors, some of them have even reported and what we're wondering is, are we unique or is there something else that's going on in the market here that maybe hasn't hit us yet. But I don't see that. I think we're very bullish on what's happening. But again, it's just a reflection of the level of uncertainty, because I know from my past, the short-cycle can turn extraordinarily quickly and one quarter can actually be a long time.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. Again, I just would say on the macros, I think we all would agree that a hard Brexit is going to have some impact, and yes, we had anticipated that that might happen at the end of March, as did the rest of the world, and now that's moved to potentially October. So that's just now pushed that worry down six months into the year. And again, I'd just same -- I mentioned it earlier, but saber rattling between the EU and the US on tariffs and the lack of a done deal with the US and China just keeps the cloud hanging over to see what's going to happen. So to Darius's point, it's not that we see something very specific that we know is coming, but there hasn't been this many macro uncertainties in the environment, certainly that I can recall.
Operator:
Our final question comes from John Walsh with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
John Walsh:
Hi. And thanks for squeezing me in here. Just one question around price, it looks like, you know in the Q, and this could be some rounding, you're still in that 2% zip code. I might have thought that would have ticked up a little bit, maybe it's rounding, but can you just talk about your ability to capture price? And obviously, I know within the context of tariffs and Brexit, there are other mitigating actions in there besides price, but maybe if we could just kind of isolate on price for a little bit?
Greg Lewis:
Well, again, I would say we feel very good about our pricing program and we've talked about it before that, particularly given the value our offerings generate, we feel like we're in a good position from a price standpoint. As you mentioned, tariff impacts we've been able to mitigate and some of that is through pass them through in pricing, which by the way, keep in mind that's dilutive to our margin expansion. You pass through a $1 of price and have a $1 of inflation that actually dilutes your margin rate. So, I wouldn't say that there is anything concerning at all as we sit here about our effectiveness in passing through price at this stage.
Darius Adamczyk:
And I would just add that, to us pricing is a function of really NPD and bringing valuable things to customers. So we don't really like to talk about price, as much we'd like to talk about value. And I think what you should expect is, as our NPD cycle shortens, which we've launched a whole new innovation process called Z21, which basically will reduce our innovation cycle time in half and the ratio of our revenues coming from new products will increase. That has obviously greater opportunities for value capture. So, that's really sort of related to your question. And that innovation cycle is accelerating and will do so not just this year but for many years to come.
Operator:
And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Darius Adamczyk, for any additional closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Honeywell started 2019 with significant momentum, including strong organic sales and superb earnings and cash flow growth. We continue to execute well and still have significant balance sheet capacity to deploy. We are focused on continuing to outperform for our customers, our shareowners, and our employees. I look forward to speaking with you in May. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Honeywell’s Fourth Quarter Earnings and 2019 Outlook Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce you to your host for today’s conference, Mark Macaluso. Please go ahead, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thank you, Margaret. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s fourth quarter 2018 earnings and 2019 outlook call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that, elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance and our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. For this call, references to adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and free cash flow conversion and effective tax rate, exclude the impact from separation costs related to the two spin-offs of our Homes and Transportation Systems businesses as well as pension mark-to-market adjustment and U.S. tax legislation except where otherwise noted in 2018. With regards to 2019, references to adjusted free cash flow guidance and associated conversion on this call, exclude impacts from separation cost payments related to the spin-off. This morning, we will review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2018, share our guidance for the first quarter of 2019 and discuss our full year outlook. As always, we will leave time for your questions on the end. With that, I will turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark and good morning everyone. Let’s begin on Slide 2. We are extremely pleased with our results in 2018, made progress both from a portfolio and financial perspective, continued smart investments in our businesses and our people and took steps to position the company for next 20 years. This quarter, we successfully completed our second spin-off of the year, Resideo Technologies, launching our new stock exchange in October. We also continue to advance our software spread toward growing our core businesses in attractive end markets. And most importantly, consistent with what we have done all year, Honeywell delivered on its commitments to our shareowners. We met or exceeded our financial commitments on all metrics, delivering adjusted earnings per share of $1.91 in the fourth quarter, driven by 6% organic sales growth and 80 basis points of segment margin expansion. We continue to see strength in our long cycle businesses, most notably in commercial aerospace, defense and warehouse automation, where Intelligrated business is a global leader. Furthermore, we are aggressively planning and mitigating the impacts of the tariffs dispute in all of our businesses as evidenced by the strong margin expansion we generated this quarter. Based on what we know of today, we do not expect any material impact to our results in 2019 related to tariffs. For the full year, we achieved 100% free cash flow conversion and a 105% conversion in the fourth quarter. We generated over $6 billion of free cash flow for the year, excluding spin cost payments, up 22% even after spinning nearly 20% of the company in the fourth quarter. This was principally driven by profitable growth, higher net income and continued efforts to free up working capital, all the while funding smart growth investments through $800 million of CapEx. Our free cash flow as a percent of sales is the highest it’s been in at least 15 years and we expect to continue to grow from here. Importantly, our U.S. pension is funded over 105% and we do not expect any cash contributions in near-term. The financial health of this company heading into 2019 is as strong as it’s ever been and we still have ample resources to deploy. Lastly we continued a steady cadence of capital deployment of an additional $1.7 billion of Honeywell share repurchases in the quarter bringing the full year total to approximately $4 billion. As a result and now expect the fully diluted share count to be down at least 3% in 2019 based on our plan to reduce share count by at least 1% from 2018. As we continue return cash to our share owners through $2.3 billion in dividend following another double digit dividend increase in 2018. This was a particularly good year for Honeywell. We have a simpler, more focused portfolio after dispense and continue to execute on our initiatives as we look to the future. We see strength across several end markets and have significant balance sheet capacity to deploy. And while we are not planning for recession in 2019, we are taking steps now to ensure deliver on our commitment in an uncertain economic environment. Let’s turn to Slide 3 to review some of the progress from last year. As I mentioned we took significant steps through 2018 to transform the business. One of my key priorities from the outset was to accelerate organic growth. As we have seen by our results we are making good progress on this front. We were encouraged by the fact that nearly 60% of the portfolio grew just 5% or more organically for the full year of 2018 with several businesses growing about 10%. If the spin offs complete we now operate our more focused portfolio in our smaller number of attractive end markets. Portfolio optimization is central to and will continue to be part of Honeywell’s operating system. We plan to continue effectively deploying capital by funding high return CapEx and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We have had nine consecutive double digit dividend increases since 2010 and still have a strong and flexible balance sheet the ability to deploy over $14 billion of cash to M&A, CapEx, dividends and share repurchases. The combination of strong sales growth, favorable end market exposure and significant balance sheet capacity positioned us well as we head into 2019. We are now on Slide 4, as I mentioned continuous transformation is part of Honeywell’s operating system. On this slide we highlighted three key transformation initiatives to establish Honeywell as a premier technology company for the future. Earlier in this year we established Honeywell Connected Enterprise or HCE which is a strengthened and centralized organization that will serve as the softer innovation engine for all of Honeywell. HCE operates with speed and agility of a startup working close to our businesses and our customers across the entire portfolio to build the world’s best software solutions rapidly and efficiently on the single platform. Our transformation to a premier technology company require us to look beyond just spin offs. Our Chief Supply Chain Officer, Torsten Pilz is leading Honeywell’s efforts to improve our supply chain and optimize our global footprint. We are seeing a lot of opportunity here to drive margin expansion and operational efficiency and you’ll hear much more about this from Torsten at annual investor conference in May. We are making similar enhancements on our capabilities internally with Honeywell’s digital initiative. This requires people, process, data and technology elements to come together which will allow for more effective and efficient decision making throughout Honeywell. This effort includes a continuation of our progress to centralized ERP systems. Thus far we have eliminated 35 unique systems in 2018 growing from 106 through 71 and we are path to just 10 ERP applications by the end of 2020. The result will be consistent processes and centralized data coverage of a common IT foundation. As you can see we have achieved a lot this year and continued to redefine the limits on what Honeywell can achieve to be the best positioned multi-industrial company for the future. Let’s turn to Slide 5 to briefly review progress against our key priorities. I laid out my key priorities for the company in 2017, since then we have continued to foster our culture win Honeywell of doing what we say, however, as we called the say do ratio. As you stack the results against our long-term commitments, you can see we are clearly making progress and in some instances achieving milestones sooner than we thought such as of our organic sales growth and free cash flow conversion. We are accomplishing these objectives while making smart investments for future through CapEx, restructuring and research and development. Our software businesses grew in the mid-teens range last year on a path to the 20% long-term compound annual growth rate we anticipate. We have taken steps to unify and strengthen our software strategy through the Honeywell Connected Enterprise and continue to invest in software development, sales and marketing capabilities and build-out of the Sentience platform. In 2018, Honeywell Ventures made 5 investments, including in Soft Robotics, a developer of automation solutions and soft robotic gripping systems that can grasp and manipulate items, the same dexterity of the human hand and in IoTium, a managed secured network infrastructure platform for an industrial Internet of Things that primarily serves building technologies and industrial customers. We also completed two bolt-on acquisitions totaling roughly $500 million. Ortloff Engineers is a privately held licensor and industry leading developer of specialized technologies to drive high returns in natural gas processing and sulphur recovery. This complements our existing UOP offering, which allows us to better meet customer needs for high recovery, non-gas liquid extraction plants growth. Transnorm, now part of safety and productivity solutions is a global leader in high-performance conveyor solutions that are used in diverse end-markets, such as parcel delivery, e-commerce fulfillment and airports. The acquisition strengthens Honeywell’s warehouse automation portfolio and positions the company to support the growing European e-commerce market, while broadening Honeywell’s connected distribution center and aftermarket offerings. I will stop there and turn the call over to Greg who will discuss our fourth quarter results and 2019 outlook in more detail.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Darius and good morning everyone. Let me begin on Slide 6. As Darius mentioned, we finished 2018 very strong in every financial metric. Organic sales growth for the fourth quarter was 6%. We have been at or above 5% every quarter this year. This reflects our continued commitment to customer excellence, new product development as well as our realization of benefits from the investments we have made in our sales organization and new product development process. We generated approximately $2 billion of segment profit in the fourth quarter driven principally by higher sales volumes, with segment margin expansion of 80 basis points. The impact in the spin-offs of lower margin businesses, net of acquisitions contributed 30 basis points, while the core business generated 50 basis points expansion. Pricing and productivity was strong which enabled us to effectively mitigate the impact of material and labor inflation. We also saw continued benefits from previously funded restructuring. Adjusted EPS was $1.91, up 12% versus prior year excluding the spins, which exceeded the high-end of our guidance range by $0.01. The adjusted EPS figure, excludes both the impact of an approximate $435 million, favorable adjustment to the 4Q ‘17 tax charge and $104 million in spin related separation costs. At the outlook call in 2018, we estimated a separation cost for the two transactions would be in the range of $800 million to $1.2 billion. I am very pleased to report that the total separation cost for both spins came in lower than this estimate at $730 million, which demonstrates our ability to effectively execute complex transactions both ahead of schedule and below budget. We also recorded $300 million in repositioning charges in the quarter to fund future productivity and stranded cost reductions. Share buybacks totaled $4 billion in 2018 and drove a $0.06 benefit from lower share count in the quarter. You can find a bridge to the fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share in the appendix of this presentation. Finally, working capital improved 0.6 turns year-over-year. Our businesses are all focused on improving working capital and we continue to see progress on our initiatives with room to free up more cash for capital deployment. Now, on to Slide 7 and review our segment results. Our aerospace business continued to perform extremely well in a robust demand environment, capping off a strong year of near double-digit organic sales growth. In the fourth quarter, we generated 17% organic growth in defense and space, with double-digit growth in both the U.S. and international businesses led by global demand for sensors and guidance systems, original equipment shipment volumes and higher spares volumes on U.S. Department of Defense programs. We also saw growth in our space business driven by new satellite program wins and commercial helicopters driven by repair and overhaul demand. In commercial OE, sales were up 8% organically, with increased HTS engine demand for Gulfstream and Textron Longitude platforms and higher aviation ship set volumes driven primarily by the certification of the Gulfstream G600. Aftermarket growth was strong in all businesses, including defense driven by increased demand for avionics upgrades both software and hardware, navigation products and safety mandates. Our connected aircraft offering has continued to gain traction driven by GoDirect cabin tail capture on robust JetWave demand. Turning to Honeywell Building Technologies organic sales growth was 1% driven by continued demand for commercial fire products in North America, Europe and our high growth regions. Building Solutions projects growth was also strong particularly for international airports. The HBS projects backlog is up 15% setting up a strong 2019 as we continue to expand in the critical infrastructure markets like airports, cities and stadiums. These gains were offset by declines in our China air and water business and temporary supply chain challenges within our building management systems business. We expect the air and water business to recover in 2019 driven by new product introductions for the mid segment and stronger demand as inventory net levels normalize after a challenging 2018. In December the supply chain issues within building management systems began to stabilize and we expect continued improvement in the first half of 2019. HBT also benefited from one month of single digital organic sales growth from the former homes business driven by strength in both products and ADI global distribution. As a reminder the results for HBT exclude homes and distribution after October. In performance materials and technology sales were flat on an organic basis. Sales in UOP were up 2% driven by ongoing strength in licensing and engineering sales, but were offset by an expected decline gas processing which was driven by an extremely strong fourth quarter in 2017. Process solution sales were up 1% organically driven primarily by a strong demand in our software maintenance and migration services and steel devices. This was offset by declines in large project activity and in smart energy and thermal solutions both shorter cycle businesses due to supply chain challenges. Notably we continue to see solid trends within the automation businesses and process solutions with total orders up double digits and short cycle backlog up over 30% suggesting that oil price volatility in the fourth quarter may have temporarily delayed customer investment decisions. Advanced material sales were down 3% on an organic basis as continued strong demand and adoption of our solstice line of low global warming refrigerants which was up 5% was offset by declines in specialty products particularly in our electronic materials business which is in the semiconductor space as you know and tough comps associated to the fourth quarter of 2017. PMT segment margins expanded 200 basis points in the fourth quarter as expected driven by the timing of catalyst shipments within UOP, commercial excellence and the benefits from previously funded repositioning. Now turning to the safety and productivity solutions business that continued to perform at a high level with organic sales up 15%, driven by broad based strength across all lines of business, double-digit organic growth in Intelligrated continued as orders from major systems and robust backlog conversion fueled by e-commerce drove strong results. We also saw double digit growth in our sensing business and continued strength in our productivity products business driven by demand for android based mobility offerings and handheld printing devices. In total organic in our productivity solutions segment was up 23%. Moving to safety, the safety business sales grew 5% organically led by ongoing demand for gas products and strong growth in retail footwear associated with the holiday season. Finally, we continue to see strength in our business is across high growth regions. In China SPS grew double digits with robust growth across industrial safety, productivity products and SIoT. Excluding the ongoing softness in air and water, HBT also grew double digits in China, for all of Honeywell China was up 9% organically for the full year. In India our capabilities and strength provided exceptional growth in the fourth quarter greater than 25% over prior year. This was driven by our building and process solutions business. We continue to see positive macroeconomic trends in the Middle East which supported growth across all businesses with three segment growing double digits organically compared to the prior quarter. Now with 2018 in the rear-view mirror, let’s move to Slide 8 and discuss our 2019 outlook. We have a reliable play book in Honeywell and it’s not changing for 2019. Our focus on smart growth investments, break through initiatives and new product development coupled with productivity rigor and the benefits of funded repositioning has positioned us well for continued out performance. For 2019 we anticipate an organic sales growth range of 2% to 5%, the low end of which reflects the possibility of some economic slowing but not a recession in 2019. Segment margin expansion is expected to be 110 to 140 basis points or 30 to 60 basis points, excluding the impact of the spin-offs. This will drive earnings per share growth of 6% to 10% excluding dilution from the spins in 2018. We expect to generate adjusted free cash flow conversion near 100% consistent with 2018 driven by high-quality income growth and continued working capital improvements across the portfolio. We are confident in our businesses in the year ahead supported by positive long cycle orders and backlog trends exiting 2018. We have put forth a strong plan with multiple cost levers to pull in the event the recent volatility in the macro environment persists. As Darius mentioned in his opening, we don’t expect a significant impact in 2019 related to tariffs. We have worked very hard to mitigate that across the year for 2019, including addressing the potential impact of the still unannounced List 4, which contemplates 25% tariff on all remaining items imported from China. We will continue to monitor this throughout the year and react accordingly as we did in 2018. Some other items to take note of related to our 2019 plan. We are on track to slightly ahead of our plan to eliminate all stranded costs in 2019 related to the spin-offs with a little over half the costs removed to-date. We see the impact of these costs primarily in the net corporate cost line and in the segment margin in Honeywell Building Technologies. Also based on the planned reduction in pension income driven by discount rates and assumed asset returns as well as lower repositioning and other charges driven by the spin indemnity, our total net below the line charges are expected to be approximately $80 million in 2019. We will see continued benefits from planned and executed share repurchases. Our 2019 plan assumes a weighted average share count reduction of about 3% year-on-year or 730 million shares. This is based on the 2% share count reduction we executed from 2018 repurchases and at least 1% additional reduction in 2019. You will find additional details on our 2019 plan inputs in the appendix. Based on what we can see today, we expect to be at the upper end of our sales guidance range for organic growth. However, given the many uncertainties in the macro signals, we are planning cautiously in 2019 overall as its difficult to predict short cycle revenues, particularly in the second half of the year and remember that is still approximately 60% of our business. Let’s turn to Page 9, we have provided initial assessment of our end markets and anticipated organic growth rates in each for 2019. The green arrows are an indication that we expect market conditions to improve, while the gray flat arrows indicate that we expect market conditions to remain relatively similar to last year. Starting with aerospace, we expect organic sales to be up strong mid single-digits for the year. We continue to see a robust demand environment in both commercial aerospace and defense. And in transport, we expect continued growth in narrow-body production rates. We forecast new business jet deliveries to increase 8% to 10% in 2019 supported by several new aircraft models entering into service, a decline in young used aircraft inventories and stable used jet prices. Our long-term strategy of securing good positions on the right platforms and building our installed base will serve us well in 2019, particularly with new business jet platforms, where we are well positioned from an OE standpoint. Mid single-digit flight hours growth will continue to drive aftermarket demand and we expect further tailwinds from the ADS-B compliance mandate deadline, along with increased demand for connected aircraft solutions across all products. The industry dynamics in defense will be positive in the U.S. and internationally driven by budget growth, but we are planning conservatively for 2019 given the tough year-over-year comparisons following 2018’s banner year where we grew 15% organically in the business. With the favorable margin rate uplift from the former Transportation Systems spin, you should expect segment margins of approximately 24% for the aero business going forward. Now on to HBT, as a reminder, following the spin of our homes portfolio, HBT’s primary exposure is to non-residential construction. Here we anticipate low single-digit organic sales growth after a challenging 2018 driven by better execution in our operations, better selling strategies and sales coverage and new product introductions. We expect commercial fire will continue to be strong with the expansion of sales coverage and share gain and commercial security to improve with the expansion of our channel partner network. The declines we experienced in our China-based air and water business should subside through a combination of stronger market demand and new product introductions for the mid segment and mass mid segment. Globally, we see building management solutions growth in both hardware and software driven by high growth regions expansion and our investments in software. Honeywell building solutions growth will be driven by government investments in smart cities, social infrastructure and airport monetization and capacity enhancements, particularly in high growth regions. We also expect continued adoption of connected building solutions on a global basis. You should expect to see margins in the range of about 20.5% in HBT after the spin off of homes. For PMT sales were expected to be up low single-digits plus on an organic basis. In oil and gas petrochemical market growth should remain steady at about 4% driven by demand for packaging and plastics. However, given the volatility in oil prices in the second half of 2018, investments in global mega projects slowed and we see the oil price volatility potentially putting some pressure on upstream spending plans in 2019. Nevertheless, we anticipate similar market dynamics overall for 2018 and the basis for our plan is that oil prices remain in the low to mid-60 per barrel. The refining market should continue to be strong as global demand for cleaner transportation fuels remains. The U.S. natural gas market which is primarily served by our UOP Russell business is expected to improve in 2018. UOP is expected to deliver a strong year driven by its strong backlog, licensing and services growth and improved market demand in gas processing after a tough 2018. Process solutions will continue to grow across its short cycle businesses as we saw in 2018. This is supported by short cycle backlog which was up over 30% at the year end. Finally, within advanced materials we expect continued growth from solstice and our flooring products and better execution in specialty products. Lastly in SPS, sales were expected to be up in the mid single-digit range. We expect a strong ecommerce and warehouse distribution macro trends to continue as our customers seek and implement differentiated warehouse solutions to deal with rising demand. Our orders in Intelligrated in 2018 were up over 30% for the year. In the safety business, we anticipate growth to be driven by new product introductions within gas protection, growth in our core product lines and high risk personal protective equipment and new product launches in general safety. In productivity we expect strong growth driven by backlog conversion in Intelligrated and our sensing business, new mobility product introductions and expanded software offerings. We are also seeing growth in our life cycle service offerings and Intelligrated which includes maintenance, technical support and optimization services. That is combined with the aftermarket capabilities we acquired with Transnorm. Now let’s move on to Slide 10, here you can see the bridge of our 2018 adjusted earnings per share to 2019. The spin impact which we define as the after tax segment profit contribution from the spins in 2018, nine months of transportation systems and 10 months of homes, net of the estimated impact of the spin indemnity assuming that it was in place all year for 2018 will be a $0.62 headwinds earnings in 2019. As you can see the majority of our earnings improvement $0.30 to $0.60 per share will again come from operational gains in our businesses, driven by profitable growth, continued productivity improvements and incremental benefits from previously funded restructuring. You can see the remaining impacts from the share count below the line items and tax rate I have already touched on will contribute approximately $0.11 per share. Now let’s move to Slide 11 to discuss our first quarter guidance. For the first quarter we expect to generate 3% to 5% organic sales growth driven principally by healthy growth in our long cycle businesses with a more cautious tone towards short cycle given the market volatility exiting 2018. With that said we do anticipate that the commercial aftermarket our sensing business and productivity products and commercial fire products will continue to be strong on the short cycle side. We expect segment margins will expand 30 basis points to 60 basis points ex the spins, consistent with our long-term framework and 110 basis points to 140 basis points on a reported basis aided by 80 basis points of margin accretion from the absence of the two spends. Our expected adjusted earnings per share range of $1.80 to $1.85 represents growth of 6% to 9% expense. We have $0.25 of earning solutions and the spins in the first quarter of 2018. Our guide is based on an effective tax rate of 22% and weighted average share count of 737 million shares for the quarter. We feel this will be a very strong start to another successful year for Honeywell in 2019. With that I would like to turn the call back to the Darius who will wrap on Slide 12.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Greg. We accomplished a lot in 2018 and expect great things in 2019 as well. We delivered on all our commitments, successfully completed spin offs ahead of schedule and under budget, while still overdriving on the organic growth, margin expansion, earnings per share and free cash flow targets that we have established at the end of 2017. There is significant room for continued margin expansion on the path to our long-term target of 23%. This is aided by over $450 million of repositioned fund in 2018 and in prior years which will drive improvements to our cost structure, supply chain and gross margin in 2019 and beyond. Our balance sheet capacity is strong and this will provide another lever to drive outperformance in any macro environment. They are continuing their business transformation through several new initiatives, including Honeywell Digital, a unified software business in Honeywell Connected Enterprise and increased focus on our supply chain. We are excited about 2019 and expect another great year. With that, Mark, let’s move on to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks, Darius. Darius and Greg are now available to answer your questions, if possible please keep your questions to one comment and a quick follow-up, so we can address all questions. Marguerite, if you could please open up the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We can now take our first question from Peter Arment from Baird. Please go ahead.
Peter Arment:
Yes, thanks. Good morning, Darius and Greg.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Peter Arment:
Nice way to finish up 2018. Darius, I guess on aerospace, just really the momentum continues to be really impressive with organic growth of 10% in each of the past two quarters. Maybe you can talk about I guess the sustainability of the confidence around the biz jet volume for you. I know you mentioned 8% to 10% for this year. And on the 2019 aerospace guidance of mid single-digit plus, is the defense tough comp really the only headwind you are seeing in 2019, maybe just some color there? Thanks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, so first of all, we are very confident about our aero outlook for 2019. Our bookings have been strong, January has been strong. Yes, the comps do get tougher and there is still some short cycle. And I think as people saw in our outlook for Q1 and what I anticipate will be Q2, we have every bit of confidence that mid single-digit is hopefully the bottom, but the fact is we don’t know the second half of the year and that’s why the numbers are what they are and potential government shutdowns and budgetary challenges and trade licenses potentially becoming an issue. We hope that doesn’t happen, that just reflects sort of external risk. But overall, there is absolutely nothing that I am concerned about in terms of the bookings to growth rates to kind of growth we are seeing in that business and it’s pervasive across all three segments, whether they are transport, bga or defense and space. So I am very pleased and it’s not a place where I am going to be losing a lot of sleep in 2019.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate the color. Thanks. I will leave it to one.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks Peter.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you and good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Sheila.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Across your four businesses you either have a deceleration in organic growth or flattening of sales growth, just where are you factoring in some conservatism with a slowdown and how are you capturing that low end of the sales growth guidance of 2%?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think it’s not so much that I am – we are capturing any conservatism in any of the businesses. I think what we have in our guidance going forward is the fact that more than 50% of our business is short cycle. And what’s different about this year than I think many years in the past is we have many more unknowns, whether it’s Brexit, whether it’s trade negotiations, specific China U.S. whether it’s Fed hikes in terms of what happens, whether it’s government shutdowns or just a lot of geopolitical unknowns more than usual. And for us, to express a level of confidence around all these unknowns around a little bit wider range than we anticipated, I think would probably indicate a level of knowledge that we currently don’t have. Now having said that and as you can see in our Q1 outlook, we are actually front-end loaded. And if anything, we are going to be at the upper half of our revenue growth range in the first half of the year. So actually, we provided that all things go as we think they will to deposit side, I think that hopefully we will be raising the bottom of that range as we move further through the year. But there is I don’t see really any growth issues of any of our businesses and we expect all of them to grow in 2019.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you for the color.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from John Inch from Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.
John Inch:
Thank you. Good morning everybody.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning John.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning John.
John Inch:
Good morning guys. So how did your European businesses do and what’s actually baked I guess on the growth rate any color there and what’s baked into your guidance for 2019 for Europe?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. John, Europe continued to be strong. In the fourth quarter, our European businesses were up 6% which capped off of 4% organic growth for the year. So I still think we are seeing good strong growth there and it’s a pretty broad based, to be honest SPS probably the strongest of the bunch, but each of the businesses is growing in the mid single-digits or higher in Europe at this stage. And as we look forward we expect that’s probably going to be still low mid single-digits – low to mid single-digits. But as Darius mentioned clearly they are concerns out there, I mean Brexit in particular will have some sort of an answer in the next 60 days is what occurs with that and we have got a meaningful size business in the UK. So definitely back to the concern aspects of macro signals, Europe is an area where we are waiting to see what’s going to happen with Brexit in particular and what impacts that may have on us.
John Inch:
But Greg, that performance, the 6% that’s pretty good relative to what other companies have been putting up in Europe and given sort of the slowing in Germany itself, is there a mix issue that’s benefiting Honeywell or new products or what do you think is attributable to why you are doing…?
Greg Lewis:
Well, again I would tell you that each of the businesses is performing well. So it’s not like one is I mean SPS being the strongest of the bunch, but each of them is up mid single-digits for the year. So it’s the strength across our entire portfolio.
John Inch:
And then as a follow-up last year you guys put up 3% to 5% core growth target and Darius you flagged accelerating core growth as your number one priority, now I understand the economics and sensitivity is around the 2 to 5 this year, but I am just trying to think big picture what are you and how are you actually going to tackle driving Honeywell towards more of a mid single-digit type of accelerating core growth over time, is that meaning to go after like in Darius that pie, the 40% that’s not growing at 5% plus or do you kick start building technologies which has been sort of a problem for a little while or more M&A I mean what maybe just walk us through a little bit of your own thoughts and maybe horizon too?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. John, it’s any one thing, it’s probably all of those, I mean it starts with portfolio and we think that bases upon what we have done here. We have got more growth oriented and less cyclical portfolio that’s certainly part of it. Secondly, which is our tremendous focus on lastly product development and we are launching the whole new process called Z21 which basically is going to reduce our innovations cycle times in half, deploying more capital to R&D because my strong belief is that part of any growth story is got to be a strong innovation engine and that’s something that we are trying to create. Continued focus on high growth regions, I mean we are winning in places like China and India. And even though the back half of the year China was a little bit slower or we grew nearly double digit in China this year, so that continues to be our success story. Our focus on commercial excellence from our sales force is working where we are getting better productivity out of sales force, better performance. It’s never only one thing. We are working all those levers. And as you can see in the growth rate that we have demonstrated this is granted, the markets are pretty good, but certainly involve the self-help that we have administered over the last couple of years. There is now way we would be in that range both in 2018 and what we are projecting for 2019.
John Inch:
Just lastly, India has been a real success story, I think you flied it again, would you consider putting more resources or doing M&A in India in particular and region wise it’s much smaller than China, but it does seem to have gained a lot of traction for Honeywell, I am just wondering I am thinking about it?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. We have had a lot of focus on India. I mean to give you a perspective for India, our growth in India in Q4 was 27%, so that’s tremendous. We have a big footprint there not just from our business perspective, we have our engineering centers there over 10,000 people. So, we feel very comfortable of our presence there. The opportunities now to go after the mass mid-market segment and that’s actually one of our core initiatives for 2019 and beyond. It’s just not to play in the top tier, the mid tier, but actually having a greater level of participation in mid-market segment. So India is definitely one of the economies, which we think is going to be a great story for us in 2019 and beyond.
John Inch:
Thanks very much.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, John.
Operator:
We now take our next question from Gautam Khanna from Cowen & Company. Please go ahead.
Gautam Khanna:
Thanks. Good morning and great results.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning and thank you.
Gautam Khanna:
Two questions. First, just big picture M&A pipeline, what can you say about it? Is it as healthy as it’s ever been or anything large that you guys are looking at, just any commentary on the nature of the pipeline right now?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I would say large probably not, because I think that we are still very much focused on bolt-ons and not the mega deals. So, I would say that is and will continue to be our focus. We got a deal done in Q4, which was good. Now, Transnorm was a deal of size, the kind of size we like, it was about $0.5 billion to capital to want to do that. But to be honest, on my commentary, that the pipeline continues to be good and we are working on the deal that recently fell through just because although there has been a little bit of a correction in the market as we saw particularly in December that didn’t really change expectations of lots of sellers. So we continue to struggle valuations and the expectations, which there is a very pronounced shift up and it’s got to work in our financial model. So we continue to be very active. The pipeline is good, but I also want to tell you that we are realistic, because we are cautious buyers and we don’t like to overpay. So we have to be certain about what we are buying and make sure that generates the right level of returns for our shareowners.
Gautam Khanna:
Appreciate it. And second question was just if there are any supplier constraints you are seeing on the aerospace side, I remember last year you had some aftermarket constraints, are you seeing any pinch points emerge?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, no. The answer to that is yes. And I would say, there are some pinch points on the supply chain emerging not just in aerospace, those are there and prevalent, particularly in areas like casting etcetera, but we see similar challenge in smart energy and even in some elements of electronic supply chain. So, the pinch points on the supply chain are real. They are there. We are working through those and hope to resolve those. Frankly speaking, our results could have been even better, had some of those pinch points not been there.
Gautam Khanna:
Thanks a lot, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Sure.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Julian Mitchell:
Good morning. Maybe just a first question around SPS, you grew around 10% plus organically in 2018. Your Slide 9 shows about mid single-digit growth this year amidst to sort of accelerating market arrow. So, is that guidance based on anything you are seeing in the short cycle businesses within SPS or it’s simply about tough comps and the usual macro aspects that you had mentioned earlier?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. Thanks, Julian. I think it’s a little bit of both. I mean, obviously, we continue to be very excited about Intelligrated and the double-digit growth rates that we achieved this year and with a very strong backlog expect that to continue to be strong. We did – our retail business though not large grew over 20% in 2018. So that’s probably going to dampen a bit with some of those comps. We still feel very positive about productivity products and sensing and IoT with the new product introductions that they have, but those and the industrial safety businesses, they are short cycle. And when those things change they can change quickly. And so I think that’s where we are trying to be a bit cautious, because we have seen it, we have seen it happen before in terms of the speed at which the short cycle can turn on us. And so it’s not a matter of having seen it so far and being concerned about anything with our business specifically, but I would just call it a bit more caution with the environment we are in.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, just to add to that, Julian, like Greg said, I mean, majority of that business is actually short cycle. Intelligrated is about the only business that isn’t short cycle. So based on what we are seeing now and today and our guides for Q1, there is no warning signs for us here where we are positioned is just uncertainty, particularly on the second half of the year.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks. And then my second question around PMT, anymore color you would like to provide on how you see the cadence of the large project activity within HPS in terms of the scale of any delays? And also UOP, how you are gauging the volatility there at the moment?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. No, I like the greater stability. What we saw in Q4 a little bit was a bit of a pause on the order rates just around the volatility of oil, but kind of given the right direction movement, we are much more bullish. But despite that, I just want to quote you a couple of numbers from Q4 and why I am bullish on PMT for this year. First of all, our HPS quarter rates were up double-digit. Second of all, our UOP backlog is up 8%. So I am very optimistic around PMT performance for 2019 probably the one segment that was pretty soft was in our advanced materials business, the electronics chemicals, which electronics has been a bit weaker, some of the other companies in that segment announcing and we saw that in our electronics chemicals business. So that’s probably the only sort of minus that we saw in Q4, but overall, book to backlog, the order rates were good. And to be honest, especially in HPS, our global mega projects log and quote are really strong we even book a lot of those orders in Q4. And our orders growth was up double-digit in the quarter. So, I feel pretty good about the PMT for 2019.
Julian Mitchell:
Great. Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Julian.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Thanks for fitting me in.
Greg Lewis:
My pleasure.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Steve Tusa:
Just wanted to ask about the not – we are not sensitive or anything like that. You mentioned kind of the next phase of the transformation and some of the footprint stuff that you are looking into. Is that something that you will be able to kind of quantify more and speak to at this year’s Investor day or is that going to remain – I don’t know what you put at the bottom of the slide like you are consulting with people or something like that about what the number is going to be? When we kind of hear more about that and how big could that opportunity be?
Darius Adamczyk:
We are not putting you in the middle anymore on the call. You wind up grump, Steve. No, the – so, the short answer is yes on Investor Day, we are going to – it’s obviously going to be a segment of that presentation. We are going to give you a lot more detail, but I just want to be very clear that the next phase of the transformation is not just the ISC transformation. That’s a very big part of it, but we kind of talked a little bit about this deck about kind of the three legs of the stool, which are ISC transformation, Honeywell Digital and Honeywell Connected Enterprises, that’s sort of the next phase of the evolution of Honeywell. And one of those three is a business and the next two are going to be – are going for at least the next 3 to 4 years. So this is going to give us a lot more tailwinds in terms of margins, cash generation, more efficiency working capital, simplifications, better planning, lower capital intensity a lot of benefits. So we are going to provide a lot more color on that at our Investor Day.
Steve Tusa:
Are you going to give something – are you going to give something tangible or will it be kind of like directional arrows? I mean, sometimes the stuff can, it sounds great, but ultimately, it doesn’t like filter down at the bottom line for other companies. Just curious if you are going to like give something tangible, numbers wise?
Greg Lewis:
So Steve, I mean, oftentimes, we get asked about how long of a runway do we have for margin expansion. And to me, this is continuing to fill the portfolio of things that keeps that runway alive and well. And so that’s kind of the way I am thinking about all of these things are going to continue to contribute to our ability to drive that margin expansion well beyond 2019.
Steve Tusa:
Okay.
Darius Adamczyk:
Because as we kind of get deeper and deeper into the 20s which we are very comfortable that we are going to do and you look at our framework that we present in 2017, I talked about 30 to 50 basis point expansion as you see from our performance as well as our guide, and the top end of the range, it’s even greater than that number these are the kinds of things that enable us to kind of keep growing that margin machine is self-help and these internal initiatives and the good news is, we’ve got plenty of opportunities, because we’ve got a lot of work to do on the supply chain and Honeywell Digital so I view all of that as not bad news, but really a tremendous opportunity to continue to drive margins.
Steve Tusa:
And then one last one, I know you guys don’t want to give specific segment guidance but maybe can you just talk about who maybe above or below the averages when it comes to margin expansion for 2019, just so people are kind of calibrated, sometimes the segments can move around a little bit and people tend to kind of pick what they want to look at as positives or negatives, things that’s good to kind of baseline people don’t need exact numbers, but just some directional color around what will be above or below that kind of margin expansion or whether they’re all be kind of in the middle there? That’d be helpful.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, I would expect Aero and HBT to probably lead the pack in terms of the rate of expansion in ’19 but each of the segments will have a very respectable margin expansion profile but clearly with the rate of growth that we’re seeing in Aero and leveraging the fixed costs that we have there, that’s probably got a pretty sizable opportunity and again HBT, with a return to growth and some new products, we see that is also having a fair amount of opportunity but each of the businesses, I think will expand margins in a meaningful way in ‘19.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
We can now take our next question Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Jeff.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Jeff Sprague:
Hi, good morning. Just a couple of things on maybe some of the longer cycle outlooks and the like first on Intelligrated, obviously, I have great visibility now on ‘19 on this backlog, but do you have visibility on things like front-log, bidding etcetera. do you expect it to be a fairly active order year again in 2019 for Intelligrated?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, the short answer is absolutely, because not only, because of the continued strength of activity in North America, which is continues to be robust but now, the Transnorm and our enhanced capability in Europe both from the beachhead that we’ve established by acquiring Transnorm, but also because if you recall, we put a lot of investments back in the ‘17 and ‘18 timeframe for R&D capability, we have a metrics-based offering that’s complete now so we’re very capable bidding on warehouses, etcetera. so we continue to expect another very robust year in our Intelligrated business.
Jeff Sprague:
And then I was also just wondering back to these mega-projects question in HPS, you noted your orders were strong, even without some of those kind of hitting the order book we think a lot of those projects kind of being underwritten that maybe $50 or $60 oil price so is it just do you think they’re just kind of a human reflex here that the volatility in Q4 cause people to just tap the pause button, or do you see some legitimate risks to these things kind of sliding out further.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think it’s, just natural reaction, when you see that kind of volatility like we saw in Q4 that causes people to pause but we’re actually seeing a very positive movement here in Q1 so I think that some of those decisions will get made, and we feel confident that when they do get made we are going to have some positive outcomes for us and even and I was encouraged by our bookings in Q4, because despite not having booked some of those GNP jobs, we still had a very robust orders growth.
Jeff Sprague:
Yes, alright great. Thank you very much.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from Scott Davis from Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Scott.
Greg Lewis:
Hi, morning, Scott.
Scott Davis:
Hi, so much of the future story of Honeywell seems to relate software in some way, shape or form and I am little intrigued by HCE in general. Can you help us understand how centralized is the software development effort and whenever I hear about centralized software development, I always think about makes me want to cry, but or worse but how do you, how do you still stay close to the customer and the businesses themselves and still have this type of a centralized effort and ensure that you’re actually getting return on the investment?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. So maybe let me just maybe explain that when we say centralized, that mean sort of the platform, the IT stack that we call Sentience that’s what centralized, that all of our connected enterprises use but then the actual analytics to solutions that are provided, those are very much vertically oriented and the way we approach this is essentially each of those businesses, end customer-focused business, so whether it’s connected aircraft, connected plant, connected buildings, we developed and the MV0, MV1 which was called single pane of glass, which has a lot of value drivers solutions for end customers and we typically partner with a few key anchor customers to help us iterate and drive an optimize the solution so we’re very close to the end customers as a matter of fact, we develop a lot of these solutions with the end customers but we also don’t want to drive customization, but rather standardization so don’t think about this as something that’s sits in corporate a kind of a central level is insular and doesn’t work with end customers, that’s not the case what we want to do is have end customer intimacy, while driving leverage to the IT stack called Sentience that’s really the core of the spread.
Greg Lewis:
And maybe if I could just add to that with the leadership from Que, she is applying that customer go-to-market approach across all of those connected enterprises, such that, each one of them individually isn’t having to develop those muscles and skill sets independent and while these businesses are still embedded inside of the for four SPGs those four SPG Presidents wouldn’t possibly be able to give it the amount of time and attention. That Que will be able to do as the President of HCE so centralized really means focus much more so than corporate.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, that’s a very good point, because what the gist was yes, the way this was organized before it still has sort of core reporting into the SPG Presidents in Que but we gave just a lot more authority and control to Que just because when you’re running a $10 billion or $12 billion business, and you have something that’s a fraction of that, it requires a lot of time, attention strategy changes, agility, it’s tough to manage that.
Scott Davis:
Right. No, that makes sense and that’s helpful and you guys have done a nice job so it’s not – it just requires, I think a little bit of explanation, but just a follow-on question really just on Intelligrated and some of the assets you’ve bought around it, are you close to being at the point where you can go-to-market together with some of these products globally, and how long will it take? I mean, just particularly given how regionalized, some of the warehouse offerings are?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, the short answer Scott is now, we are ready as a matter of fact, we are quoting globally and as excited as we are about the North American market, we anticipate being securing some jobs both in Asia this year as well as Europe and we’re ready, we’ve invested from an R&D perspective the Transnorm acquisition is going to further help, but you should expect us to get some more momentum here on a global level in 2019 and a lot of those solutions are finished.
Scott Davis:
Okay, good luck. Thanks, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Scott.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
We now take our next question from Andrew Obin from Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Andrew Obin:
Hi, guys. Good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Andrew.
Greg Lewis:
Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on defense, just because it was so strong can you give us more visibility into how sustainable some of the developments that you had in 4Q and into the first half I would imagine F-35 ramp is sustainable, you mentioned Space and Defense, I think you mentioned aftermarket, if you could just walk us through a visibility for the next six months?. Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Well, I would tell you, so as you mentioned, our Defense business has been growing mid-teens all four quarters of 2018, and as we look out for the next six months, the backlog growth there is also very strong it’s strong double digits over 20% in Defense and Space so for the next 6 months, as you mentioned, I think, our visibility is very good to continued strength in that area.
Andrew Obin:
And just maybe on China, could you just describe more color on specific markets and just your top down view on China’s economy? And how do you think it will progress through the year just because you have such a big business there and you’ve been very knowledgeable?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, it’s been as I mentioned, it’s our China business has been up nearly double-digit just shy of that for the year so another solid growth here, a bit of a slowing in, I would say in Q4, but there are some very clear reasons, and we understood that slowing so that we kind of take it segment by segment if we think about SPS, it was terrific it was up double-digit growth in China, no slowing, actually if anything, things are accelerating in PMT, we had some tough comps, we understood that and expected that we had some big, both orders and revenue growth so we expected that nothing unusual.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, we’ve doubled the business in UOP in the last 2 years so the comps are not small.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, exactly. So nothing out of the world of expectation for HBT, as you know, we’ve had some challenges with the air and water segment and frankly some of our distributor partners got a little bit ahead of themselves, given the robust growth that we saw in 2017 and that’s been a bit of a challenge for us all year but we expect that to grow again in 2019 so we think that’s going to be behind us and then with Aero, we had some take collections challenges, which actually limited our shipments, because our backlog was actually better than the revenues would indicate so all in all, we’re not building in a tremendous year in China, not kind of the usual Honeywell strong double-digit growth in China, where we think it’s going to a little bit slow but all of that is reflected in our guide, and we expect to grow in China in 2019 for certain how much that’s going to be? Well, we will see all-in-all, I feel pretty good about how the businesses are positioned.
Andrew Obin:
And do you guys have a view on the Chinese economy bottoms in ‘19?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I think that’s a $1 million, it’s a bit of $1 million question Andrew, I think a lot of that depends, and we might know better answer in next 30 days, right? I mean, I think we’re watching carefully what happens on the geopolitical sphere, and with the broader economy because as I said, we’re very prepared from a tariff perspective, because that’s something we can identify and should be able to do something about what we don’t know and where we have some questions, which is whether it’s going to be the overall economic impact both on the economies of China, the U.S. etcetera. that’s I think, at this juncture, it’s worth being a month into the year that’s tough to call, and we’ll see what happens.
Andrew Obin:
Terrific. Appreciate it. Thanks so much.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Andrew.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, guys and thanks for truly fitting me in.
Greg Lewis:
Welcome.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Lot of impact so obviously, look, you guys got a lot accomplished in 2018 congratulations.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Joe Ritchie:
I think one of the areas that we haven’t really focused a lot on is that specialty products business and so maybe just a broader strategic question there I think that business is tied to semis, electronics how do you think about that business longer term? You got you did a lot in 2018 this business seems to be a little bit more cyclical versus the rest of your portfolio so maybe some thoughts around that, that to start would be great.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, yes, there is some cyclicality, there is also some stability I mean, we have our Spectra business there, which is doing quite well, our Aclar business, which is acyclical, our Electronic Materials business, which is more cyclical, so it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Probably we’re given some of the challenges in the Electronics segment probably on the lower end of the curve than we are, but I think like anything, I mean we’re we like a lot of those businesses, they perform for us, but as always, we’re and as we pointed out during our speaker notes today, we’re always assessing everything I think some of the big things, that we wanted to do that we didn’t think that fit our portfolio within 2018 but everything is always under assessment, we’ve never done, and we always want to kind of add and also subtract potentially so I don’t there is no specific update to the to the SP business, but like I said, we’re always assessing and we’re going to do what’s we’ll make adjustments as they fit our portfolio.
Joe Ritchie:
Yes, that’s fair. Darius is it fair to think of that business though as being mostly semi-CapEx-oriented?
Darius Adamczyk:
It’s a mixed bag. I mean, there is really a variety of different businesses, and that’s why it’s kind of tough to talk about, sort of any given one trend, because you have electronic materials, you have some Defense spend, and you have healthcare in there, you have consumer goods so, I mean you have a entire variety of end markets that there’s exposure in speciality products so it’s tough to say what that total blend ends up to but yes, there’s sort of eclectic mix of various end markets.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Yes, fair enough. And just one quick one Greg, you mentioned the stranded costs earlier, I think the number I had was like roughly around like $340, $350 million.
Greg Lewis:
That’s right yes.
Joe Ritchie:
So, the timing of those costs, I mean, does it, what’s remaining into in 2019 first, can you quantify what’s left in 2019? Secondly, what we get through those costs through the first half of the year, are they going to be kind of linear as the year progresses?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. So we have taken actions that we will have eliminated about half of those costs already as we exited 2018 and as you saw in the fourth quarter with the corporate number of being flat to slightly up, that reflects the first quarter of not having the ability to allocate about $45 million or $50 million to those two spin businesses that are now gone so that’s a little bit of why you saw maybe a heavier number than you might have expected but we expect that to come down over the course of the year from the first to the fourth quarter, and we will exit the fourth quarter at a run rate by which all of those costs will be gone so that’s you should expect to see a bit of a stair-step down and again, keep in mind, that two-thirds is in our net corporate costs, about a third of that was sitting in HPT, so you’re not going to see a $300 million number per se but it’s reflective of a step down as we go through the year.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. Helpful, guys. Thank you.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Joe.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next question comes from Christopher Glynn from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Christopher Glynn:
Hi, thanks. Also a sincere thanks for squeezing me. I certainly don’t expect to go before Steve, but possibly before Joe next time anyways, question on non-res, a lot of mixed messages, people talking about low single digits but yes, they appeared talked about very robust commercial projects so just wondering what you’re seeing in that space, is that a very a vibrant market or is it just kind of GDP limp?
Darius Adamczyk:
Okay. I mean, if you look at our HPS business, which is probably the best indication of kind of the commercial activity up double-digit bookings in Q4, so actually very, very strong that’s good we also want to make sure we captured a service, that’s the opportunity that business is stabilizing I think Vimal and the team have put the business on the right path, we’re seeing good signs and sort of the secret to the growth there is revitalization of the NPD pipeline and I see a lot of good things in the various segments, whether it’s building products, whether it’s fire, whether it’s our BMS systems so we actually expect a pretty good year and if you take HPS as a leading indicator, that’s also been a pretty good sign in Q4 so we’re little bit cautious in the outlook, but given the stability that we have now, and it should be a nice story for us recovery story first in 2019.
Christopher Glynn:
Thank you.
Operator:
And I would now like to turn the call back to Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. Our end markets continue to be strong, and we’ve got simpler, more focused portfolio, following completion of the spins. We continue to execute well, as evidence by our sales, margin and cash performance, and we have a significant balance sheet capacity to deploy. We have a strong performance culture. Our say will continue equal our do. And we are focused on continuing to outperform for our customers, our shareowners, and our employees. I continue to be encouraged by what I see in each of our businesses and our people. I’m excited for what I know will be a strong 2019. Thank you for listening.
Operator:
That concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks Derrick. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's third quarter 2018 earnings conference call. With me here today are our Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. For this call, references to adjusted earnings per share, free cash flow, free cash flow conversion and effective tax rate exclude impacts from separation costs related to the spin-off of our Homes and Transportation Systems businesses, and U.S. tax legislation except where otherwise noted. This morning, we'll review our financial results for the third quarter of 2018, share our guidance for the fourth quarter and provide an update to our full year 2018 outlook. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, let me turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. This has been a very exciting quarter for Honeywell. In August we raised our full year earnings outlook by an additional $0.05, the fourth increase in 2018 driven by continued momentum throughout the portfolio. We completed the spin-off of Garrett Motion on October 1, and are in the final stages of completing our second spin of the homes and global distribution business Resideo. We also announced our acquisition of Transnorm, our Europe based supplier of warehouse automation solutions which I'll talk about more in a minute. Most importantly, we continued to deliver on our commitments to shareholders. We met or exceeded our guidance on all metrics. For the third quarter we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.03, up 17% year-over-year driven larger by strong operational performance. We drew organic sales 7%, impressive top line growth across aerospace, safety and productivity solutions and homes. And our long range orders and backlog were up 26% and 17% year-over-year respectively which positions us well for continued growth in 2019 and beyond. Our focus on maintaining our productivity rigor especially in inflationary environment was relentless this quarter. We generated 70 basis point of segment margin expansion, 20 basis points above the high-end of our guidance driven by sales excellence and strong productivity gains enabled by previously funded and executed restructured. We will talk more about the steps we've taken to address the impact of tariffs later in the call. We also continue to see improvements in working capital performance coupled with profitable growth which is driving increased free cash flow conversion. This quarter we generated $1.8 billion of adjusted free cash flow up 51% year-over-year excluding separation cost. Conversion this quarter was 119%, well above our long-term target. I'm particularly pleased with the progress we've seen and I am confident there's more to come as we enhance our capabilities through the deployment of HOS Gold. We're focused on improving working capital management every level of the organization. Lastly as we've done throughout the year, we continue to exceed our aggressive and disciplined capital deployment strategy committing more than $4.5 billion to share repurchases, dividends and acquisitions through the third quarter. That number includes the dividend paid to date, the Transnorm acquisition and approximately 600 million in share repurchase in the third quarter. The pullback in the stock in the first half of October allowed for traditional repurchases of Honeywell shares into the fourth quarter at attractive levels. And as you saw we increased our dividend by 10% in September which is the ninth double digit increase since 2010. Our end markets continue to be strong, and we have a simpler more focused portfolio following completion of the spins. As I said last quarter, we continue to execute well as evidenced by our sales, margin and the cash performance and with significant balance sheet capacity to deploy. I continue to be encouraged by what I see in each of our businesses and I'm excited for I know it will be a strong finish to 2018. Let's turn to Slide 3 to highlight some of the recent exciting news in our businesses. In aerospace, Gulf Air selected Honeywell's GoDirect Flight Efficiency software to reduce fuel costs and lower emissions across its entire 32 aircraft fleet. The software provides Gulf Air a clear analysis in real-time insights that address all flight variables allowing them to unlock savings beyond standard efficiency initiatives. Gulf Air joins a growing list of airlines adopting GoDirect Flight Efficiency software including Aer Lingus, British Airways, Etihad Airways, KLM, Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines. In home and building technologies, Honeywell Partnered with Dubai Properties to complete the installment of energy savings upgrade in all 11 Business Bay Executive Towers in Dubai. The project includes a fully digital building management system to monitor and control the tower's mechanical and electrical utilities, as well as fan coil units that integrate the software to provide visibility into electricity consumption. We anticipate that project will result in the same use of 3.3 million kWh or approximately $400,000 annually. In Performance Materials and Technologies, Jizzakh Petroleum selected Honeywell UOP technologies for new refinery capable of processing 5 million tons of crude oil per year. UOP will provide licensing and basic engineering design services that allow Jizzakh Petroleum to convert crude oil into high-quality cleanburning Euro 5 motor fuels. This is the 20th award for UOPs diesel hydrotreating technology and the 33rd award for its gasoline and unit cracking technology in last 10 years. Earlier this month, we announced the acquisition of Transnorm, a privately held European warehouse automation solutions provider that specializes in curved conveyor systems that quickly and efficiently move products and packages for premier e-commerce and parcel delivery customers. Transnorm has an install base of 160,000 units in a large and growing aftermarket parts, and services business. The addition of Transnorm broadens Honeywell's Intelligrated product portfolio and allows SPS to participant in the fast-growing European warehouse automation market fueled by growth in e-commerce. Clearly a lot of exciting things are happening across the portfolio as we head into the final quarter of the year. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Greg who will discuss our third quarter results in more detail.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks Darius, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to begin on Slide 4. As Darius mentioned, we delivered another strong quarter consistent with the first-half organic growth was broad across the portfolio with about 65% of our portfolio growing 5% or more in the quarter, and over three quarters of the organic growth coming from increased volumes. A few highlights, commercial aviation OE grew 19% organically led by business aviation, defense and space grew 14% organically with double-digit growth in both the U.S. and international businesses, and safety and productivity solutions grew 12% organically led by Intelligrated warehouse automation business. The markets we serve continue to be strong and we continue to leverage our leading market positions, new product launches and investments in commercial excellent to drive profitable growth. We generated 70 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter while continuing our investments for growth and effectively managing the impact of inflation. A big part of our performance was driven by productivity enabled by our ongoing restructuring activities. This quarter we funded approximately $70 million in new restructuring projects aimed at improving our cost structure and optimizing our footprint and supply chain. The majority of our earnings growth $0.20 this quarter came from segment profit improvement driven by enhanced sales volumes and sales excellence across the company. We also realized the $0.05 benefit from share repurchases which resulted in lower weighted average share count of 752 million shares. This year through the third quarter, we've reduced the outstanding share count by more than 2% and have deployed more than 2 billion in share repurchases. Below the line items, we’re roughly flat for the quarter with higher pension income offsetting higher repositioning and other funding. Finally our effective tax rate of 21.9% was lower year-over-year which generated a $0.04 benefit consistent with the outlook we provided at the beginning the quarter. Also we delivered adjusted EPS of $2.03. This figure excludes the net impact of an approximate $1 billion favorable adjustment to the 4Q '17 tax charge and approximately 233 million in spin related separation cost in the quarter. Those include 117 million of tax costs incurred in the restructuring of our various legal entities in preparation for the spin-off. You'll find a bridge to 3Q '18 adjusted earnings per share in the appendix of the presentation posted on our website. Finally, we generated adjusted free cash flow in the third quarter of $1.8 billion up 51% versus prior year. We continue to see marked improvements in this area with stronger cash flows and better conversion enabled by a 0.6 churn improvement in working capital versus the prior year. This strong cash generation was most prominent in performance materials and technologies and safety and productivity solutions. So overall, another strong performance across the board consistent with our prior quarters. I'm now on Slide 5 to review our segment results. The growth we saw in aerospace last quarter continued as we benefited our strong positions on winning platforms in a robust demand environment. We delivered sales growth of 10% in an organic basis, commercial OE sales were up 19% organically led by engines, avionics and auxiliary power unit demand in business and general aviation, air transport deliveries on the Boeing 737 and Airbus A350, and lower customer incentives which added roughly one point of organic growth to aerospace in total for the quarter. Defense and space grew 14% organically driven by US DoD spares volume, robust centers and guidance systems demand and higher volumes on key programs including the F-35 and CH-47 Chinook. The aerospace aftermarket grew 6% organically primarily driven by strong airlines demand and maintenance service program activity and business aviation. As a reminder, this was the last quarter that transportation system is now publicly traded company called Garrett Motion contributed to aerospace business and TS sales were up 7% organically in the quarter, our continued growth in light vehicle gas turbos in North America and Europe driven primarily by new launches. Aerospace segment margins expanded 80 points - 80 basis points driven by higher defense and aftermarket volumes, commercial excellence, and lower year-over-year customer incentives. In home and building technologies, organic sales growth was 3% for the quarters. Homes grew 5% driven by continued strength in ADI global distribution and residential thermal solutions growth in the Americas and Europe. Buildings grew organically 1% driven by continued commercial fire products strength globally, demand for our Tridium building management platform in the connected buildings business offset by declines in our air and water business due to low demand for air purifying solutions in China. HBT segment margins expanded 10 basis points driven by commercial excellence and material and labor productivity including benefits from previously funded and executed restructuring. This was largely offset by the impact of inflation and unfavorable mix. HBT did experience some short-term supply chain challenges and transition impacts related to the Resideo spin-off in the quarter. As you know the home business was not a separate entity within HBT before the spins and the separation as expected was complex with some significant changes in our organization, our systems and our manufacturing footprint. With the Resideo spin-off slated for October 29, we anticipate that we will be able to address most of these challenges within the fourth quarter and get off to a good start in 2019. In performance materials and technologies, sales were 4% on an organic basis driven primarily by growth in advanced materials and process solutions. Organic sales growth in advance materials of 6% was driven by a significant demand for solstice more global warming products. Process solutions sales were up 4% organically driven by continued demand in our short cycle businesses principally in software, field devices and maintenance and migration services. UOP sales were up 3% organically driven primarily by growth in engineering and new catalysts units in China. PMT segment margins contracted as we've previewed driven by unfavorable mix in UOP and we continue to expect that to turnaround in 4Q as we had previously communicated. Finally, safety and productivity solutions delivered another outstanding quarter with organic sales up 12% driven by broad-based growth across all lines of business. Intelligrated continues to outperform rolling consistently at double digits driven by strong orders growth and major systems and a robust backlog of new wins fueled by growth in e-commerce. We saw continued demand for new Android-based mobility product offerings, as well as for service and scanning applications in the quarter. We also saw double-digit growth in our legacy sensing business. All in all, organic sales growth was 16% in our productivity solutions businesses. Within the safety business, organic growth was 6% with strong demand for new gas and general safety products. Additionally, the SPS China and India business delivered another quarter of more than 20% growth in sales. Strong segment margin expansion of 150 basis points was enabled by commercial excellence, higher sales volumes and productivity and repositioning benefits. Now let's move on to Slide 6 to discuss our outlook for the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter preview reflects the absence of transportation systems for the entire quarter and the anticipated completion of the home spin by the end of October. So only one month of operating results for homes is included in our guide. You will see this reflected in the updated full year outlook as well. Throughout the year we have seen strong long cycle order rates, and a growing backlog which in combination with our shortcycle momentum we expect to generate 5% to 6% organic sales growth in the quarter. We expect that segment margins will expand between 60 to 80 basis points reflecting a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year margin improvement in PMT and SPS, as well as margin accretion from the absence of our two spun businesses. We anticipate adjusted earnings per share of a $1.85 to a $1.90 which excludes the segment profit contribution net of tax from Garrett for the full quarter and Resideo for two months as I mentioned and it includes the benefit of the indemnification agreements we have with both companies. We’re moving the after-tax segment profit contribution from the spins in both periods. Fourth quarter EPS adjusted is expected to be 17% to 20% up. Expected EPS growth will primarily be driven by strong segment profit growth. Other key elements include lower share count due to the more than 2 billion in share repurchases we have done through the third quarter, and higher pension income offset partially by a higher effective tax rate for the quarter at approximately 22%. This outlook incorporates our estimate of the tariff impact for what is enacted and known as of today. We continue to work those plans to address the impact of any from other potential tariffs that have been discussed but not enacted. Turning to the segments, we expect continued strength in arrow aero commercial OE and both air transport and business aviation and in the aftermarket driven by flight hours growth. We continue to expect mid-single-digit aftermarket growth in the fourth quarter and we expect that the momentum we have seen in defense will continue driven by demand for sensing and guidance systems and spares volumes into U.S. Department of Defense programs. This is supported by orders growth of more than 40% in the third quarter and backlog growth of more than 30% as well. Our outlook for home and building technologies for the fourth quarter reflects only one month of operations from homes and a full quarter of the remaining buildings businesses. We expect continued strength in homes from ADI global distribution and home products in the month of October and flattish growth in buildings for the quarter. For buildings we anticipate continued strength in the fire business where we have been growing mid to high single digits offset by slower energy conversions and building solutions as we have discussed previously, as well as the clients in China air and water. The team is launching new buildings products and we do expect growth to accelerate into 2019. In performance materials and technologies we're anticipating healthy growth in each of our businesses with UOP likely the strongest driver of demand across equipment, engineering and catalysts. UOP's long cycle backlog is up more than 10%. We expect continued short-cycle demand in process solutions, software and service offerings, a trend we have seen throughout 2018 supported by 11% orders growth in the third quarter. In advanced materials we expect continued strength from customer adoption of our solstice low global warming products and flooring products. Given the anticipated strength and refining catalyst reloads coupled with continued strong margin expansion, and process solutions and advanced materials, margins in PMT will be up sequentially and year-over-year in the fourth quarter as we had mentioned previously. Finally in safety and productivity solutions, the story remains robust in the fourth quarter. We anticipate broad-based strength across all of the businesses led by Intelligrated safety and China and India. We are really pleased with SPS's performance this year and expect this to continue into 2019. Now let's turn to Slide 7 to walk to the bridge to our full-year EPS guidance. Slide 7 presents a walk to the moving pieces in our earnings bridge for the full-year. In August we raised our guidance to 8.10 to 8.20. This primarily had a stronger outlook for the second half of the year with a small contribution from our change in asbestos accounting. With the performance in the third quarter approximately $0.03 above our expectation and anticipated strength in the fourth quarter we are raising the low and high end of the full year guidance before consideration of this spins to an updated range of $8.22 to $8.27 which is a raise of about $0.10 at the midpoint. The expected dilution for three months of Garrett's earnings and expected two months of Resideo earnings will be approximately $0.31. There is an approximately $0.04 contribution from the spin-off indemnification agreements related to Honeywell's legacy liabilities which nets the spin impact to about $0.27. As a reminder on a go forward basis beginning in the fourth quarter, 90% of the expenses net of recoveries related to the covered liabilities will be reimbursed by Garrett and Resideo. When we take into account the estimated dilution from the spins, net of indemnification agreement reimbursement our new range for adjusted EPS is $7.95 to $8 per share. That equates the growth of 16% to 17% for the full-year removing the second profit contribution from the spins in both periods. Our guidance continues to reflect a weighted average share count of 754 million shares and an effective tax rate between 22% and 23%. Now let's turn to Slide 8 to summarize the details of our full-year guidance. We've seen significant momentum throughout the year. On the left side of the Page, you see the original guidance on our key measures which we provided back in December. In the middle of pages are our latest guidance reflective of the strength in our end markets, three quarters of outperformance and a dilutive impact from the fourth quarter spin-off. We now project organic growth of about 6% for the year which is two points higher than the high-end of our original guidance. Our segment margin range of 50 to 60 basis points which starts at the high-end of our original range, adjusted EPS of $7.95 to $8 per share which is $0.40 higher at the low-end and $0.20 higher at the high-end of our original range and adjusted free cash flow of $5.8 billion to $6.2 billion which is substantially above our original projections and represents conversion between 97% and 103% for the year, all representing very robust performance. The difference between our reported and organic sales growth is three points in our guidance. We anticipate an approximate one point impact from foreign currency translation offset by an approximate four point impact from our two spin-offs. On the segment guide, aerospace and home and building technologies reported sales figures have been revised to reflect the lost sales and second profit from the spins. In aerospace, we also narrowed our organic sales outlook to the high-end of the range based on the strong performance to-date and our strong backlog. We have narrowed the PMT sales guidance to the midpoint of the previous range. PMTs margin guidance remains the same. In SPS we raised our organic sales guidance by two points on the high-end to 10% and raised its segment margin guidance to a new range of 122 to up 130 basis points or 20 basis points improvement on the high-end. This business has performed well all year long and we expect a strong finish based on the oil rates, the backlog and the momentum in our short cycle products businesses. As you can see our current guidance is significantly higher than our original guidance and accounts for the 2018 dilution from our two spin-offs in the fourth quarter. As Darius mentioned in his opening, we have delivered substantial operating results while executing a major portfolio change. Now let's turn to Slide 9. We wanted to provide a little bit of preliminary framework for 2019 giving all the moving parts with the spins, the liability indemnity and the other below the line items. First, starting with the macro environment we feel very confident in the strength of our end markets. We see continued demand in growing industries including e-commerce which we address with our warehouse automation offerings from Intelligrated and soon to be Transnorm. Commercial aviation where we had a strong position on the right platforms that will lead to healthy aftermarket growth, defense where we see robust budgets and clarity on defense spending for the year ahead, and process automation where we expect to see an eventual pick up and large projects coupled with continued demand for software and services. As we said last quarter, we’re proactively managing both the direct and indirect impacts from the Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs. And are making necessary changes now for the additional tariffs enacted under List 3, as well as not retaliatory impacts if any. While we are hopeful there is ultimately a resolution for the situation, we're planning for the worst and making structural changes including modify some sources of supply, seeking alternative sources, and taking other commercial actions as necessary to position us for 2019 and beyond. Given that, we continue to expect inflation to accelerate within the business and we are working to minimize those impacts with the help of our procurement, marketing and commercial excellence teams. We expect the impact to be minimal and manageable in 2018 as we previously discussed but now anticipate that the impact of 2019 prior mitigation actions will be significant. We have established a robust MOS across the company to ensure that we stay ahead of the situation though and will continue with a rigorously address any cost increases throughout our supply chain and adjust prices as necessary. It is our expectation that we will be able to effectively manage the situation and still deliver strong results as we have done through 2018 as you will know this will put some pressure on margin rate expansion. Moving on to our spin-offs, we estimated the total associated strata cost to be approximately 340 million across the business with more than 50% of these cost eliminated by the end of this year and the balance eliminated in 2019 and we feel very good about where we are in that regard. We have made very good progress and we are managing this smartly and it’s a big focus now that the spins are done. We expect that the full-year dilution on a go forward basis from the two spins net of the indemnity reimbursement and excluding those remain strata cost will be approximately $0.90. In terms of other preliminary figures for 2019 at our current level of buybacks we are anticipating at least a 1% reduction in share count. Due to the measures we took earlier this year to derisk our pension plan investments, pension income will be approximately $300 million lower year-over-year and our funded status is expected to remain well above 100%. Repositioning funding, we expect to be approximately $325 million next year. Based on our planning for the fourth quarter and the repositioning we have funded to-date in 2018, this represents approximately $150 million decline year-over-year. We will continue to take the opportunity to deploy repositioning funding to improve our supply chain, optimize our fixed cost and manage in our remaining strata cost reduction plans. Finally with the impact of the legacy liability indemnity reimbursements from our two spin-off, we expect that asbestos and environmental will be lower by approximately $425 million. As a reminder, this reduction represents the 90% of expense that is covered by the indemnification agreement and is included in the $0.90 of dilution we mentioned earlier. We will provide you with more details about our expected 2019 performance during our fourth quarter earnings report and 2019 outlook in January. Now with that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Darius who will wrap up on Slide 10.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks Greg. The fourth quarter begins a new chapter for Honeywell. Our two spin-offs leave us in a even stronger position for the more focused and growth oriented portfolio in industry-leading businesses across attractive end markets. Each has multiple lovers to drive inorganic and organic growth as well as continued margin expansion. Our cash performance this year has been outstanding and there's still room for improvement. Year-over-year the free cash flow growth has exceeded 20% each quarter and our free cash flow conversion is also improved significantly. We are rapidly approaching 100% conversion as we demonstrated this quarter. Our financial condition is best-in-class by healthy balance sheet that provides us with significant capacity to deploy dividends, share repurchases and M&A. Our commitment to deploy cash both smartly and aggressively has not changed. Importantly, we have a strong performance culture. Our say will continue to equal our do, and are focused on continuing to outperform for our customers, our shareowners and our employees. We’re looking forward to sharing more exceptional results, as well as our 2019 outlook during our fourth quarter earnings call in late January. With that Mark, let's move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks Darius. Darius and Greg are now available to answer your question. So Derrick if you could please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
So maybe I’ll start with a couple of higher-level questions. With the benefit of such a global business that you guys have such as many different end markets, maybe you could just talk through what you’re seeing around the world particularly with respect to emerging markets and for hearing some concern from investors about potential project push-outs, slowdown and short cycle activity et cetera?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I’ll take that one. I mean certainly we’re seeing a little bit of China has to be the highlight and certainly Q3 was not as robust as some of the quarters that we saw in the first half. So you know there is - we did have some tougher comps that we expected. We had some challenges our air and water business which has been throughout the year. So I'm not alarmed yet, but certainly Q3 was a bit slower in terms of growth. I mean we grew the Chinese market but not at a double-digit pace that we saw earlier in the year. So that's probably my number one area to watch. I wouldn’t say I’m concerned about it yet but certainly an area of focus. On the flip side of the coin, U.S. was extraordinarily robust, think about 9% to 10% kind of a growth rate in the U.S. and was probably at the other end of the spectrum. We continue to be very bullish in the U.S. markets and I expect that to continue. And then sort of the rest of the global it was a little bit of a mixed bag. I mean some Southeast Asia business was good. We had a really nice recovery in our Latin American business that was really good to see that’s been our focus for business activities throughout the year and we see that coming back. Middle East was okay. India was a bit slower than we anticipated but we expect a pretty good recovery in Q4. So all in all I mean there is certainly some puts and takes, very encouraged by what we're seeing in North America with our focus on China as we head into Q4.
Nicole DeBlase:
Thanks Darius that was really comprehensive. And I guess just shifting to capital allocation, just some thoughts as you head into 2019 maybe it was good to see Transnorm come through recently. But how robust is the pipeline and I guess if M&A doesn't come through as you expect is there scope to go higher than that 1% reduction in share count that you're kind of earmarking for 2019?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think that's why we’re very careful to pick our wording in the press release so which is that - you should expect at least 1% share count reduction. The 1% is roughly measured with 3 billion that are already committed to but you spot on your comment is exactly right, that's the way we think about capital allocation. And depending upon what happens in M&A, we’ll potentially do buybacks. There are a couple of things that we think we could get done and announce maybe even as possibly in Q4 probably not close in Q4. So, but I never really count the M&A transactions until they are signed and done. So I want to monitor that quickly we have been in the market early in Q4 as we pointed out in the press release. I thought there were some attractive price points for us and continue to be, but yes - the framework you're thinking of is exactly the one we use, which is, we kind of toggle this between M&A and buyback. As I said, I would prefer M&A, but it's - as I said on multiple earnings call now, it continues to be a challenged environment and unfortunately it's kind of becoming the new normal. Although we were thrilled to pick up the Transnorm acquisition, and I think an attractive entry point, but from a price stand - but a really important entry point into Europe for our Intelligrated business. Not only is it a terrific acquisition on its own, it also gives us that really nice foothold in Europe, just an outstanding business.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague from Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Jeffrey Sprague:
I was wondering if we could get just a little bit more help on the bridge. Greg, I think you said the guide reflects 16% to 17% pro forma growth for 2018. Could you just baseline us on what that implies for segment OP dollars in 2018 for Aero and HBT, as if the spins were out on a full year basis?
Greg Lewis:
Jeff, in terms of the absolute dollars, I don't think we're going to highlight specifically those numbers directly. But the $0.31 represents, you could think about that as close to linear but not exactly because of the stub period that we got in homes, because we are getting only one month of the homes results in that $0.31. So, you could think about it as almost linear but not quite. I mean, that - we've got full fourth quarter high degree of profit that we're losing in December and November. The Resideo side is going to be a little bit less clear from that perspective. But it's - the $0.31 is close to linear but not exactly.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then just on the $0.90, so it sounds like stranded costs would be an incremental headwind on top of that, if you could clarify that but is there any deployment of the spin dividends of $2.8 billion in that construct?
Greg Lewis:
No, the $0.90 is just simply the lost segment profit, an after-tax basis and net of the reduction in our below-the-line expenses associated with the indemnity. As we talked about the $340 million of stranded costs, which we feel very good about our progress in terms of eliminating that so far, is not included in that number. And we'll update you more on that as we get into the January guidance and we finish the year out. You know, you can imagine that, as we said, we've taken out by the end of this year greater than 50% of that and we feel like we're in a good position, we're turning our attention from a spin perspective, from getting the deal done to the sustainability side. And we'll be a lot of focus on that but that is not in the $0.90 at this point in time. And in terms of the usage of the spin dividends, Darius talked about the capital deployment framework, and we'll utilize that as fire power for executing around that framework but it is not precisely included in any way in that $0.90.
Jeffrey Sprague:
I'm sorry, just one other for clarification. When you say net of indemnity, do you mean only kind of the $315 million or so that Garrett, Resideo, "OU" and then we've got incremental tailwind to get to that $425 million that you're talking about on lower asbestos and environmental?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, no. Again, think about that as asbestos and indemnity for 2018 and the knock on effect of the 90% reduction on a year-over-year basis and those two particular line items. Obviously in the asbestos side, NARCO has nothing to do with that. So we have to take that out. But that's the way to think about it.
Mark Macaluso:
And Jeff, this is Mark. If I could, just to be clear, the caps, the $350 million cap that we cited in August, that is the cash payment cap, right. And so as we had said in August, the expenses whatever they are could be higher and that from a P&L perspective could be closer to the $0.40 we cited in the release. So, I think that's where you're getting tripped up, there's a $0.40 expense, separately there's an annual cash payment cap in respect of any year that's $350 million.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, so that's when we gave the $0.40, again, that was a - call that a framework. But the actual value of what's going to be in the P&L may be higher or lower depending on how things go. And the $425 million known is reflective of where we see 2018 expense in those two categories.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just maybe to dig into PMT on a couple of questions. First, with the recent ruling out of SCOTUS on some of the HFC stuff, how does that impact maybe some of the trajectory for Solstice from here? And then, I guess a follow-up on that on some of the refinery comments.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, it doesn't because as you may recall, that - despite that ruling there are quite a few states that are still adapting the HFO regulation and green house gas emissions. So, as of right now we don't see much of an impact yet. We're continuing to work with the regulatory bodies, both at the federal and the state level. And at the present time, we don't anticipate substantial impact and frankly a lot of the companies that we're working with are on that path anyway. And again, obviously that's only a U.S. issue. What was your second question on PMT?
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Yes, I guess more broadly in - with some of the environment going on there particularly IMO 2020 and refiner starting to redeploy, I think UOP is set to have a good shipping quarter in 4Q, how much of that are you seeing in the business today versus may be extended visibility into 2019? Just trying to calibrate as refiners spend when it helps Honeywell specific.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, typically refiners got to wait till the last moment. So a lot of that investment, so that's what sort of surprised us. So we expect 2019 to be a good year. But the numbers speak for themselves of UOP backlog up double digit. That gives me a good side strong booking rates. Sort of the margin challenges that were evident in Q3, we very much expected, we communicated those in Q2. We knew that they were going to be dilutive. But by the way, that reverses in Q4 based on the mix of products that we ship. So, overall we're very bullish on UOP and what they're going to do. And like I said, at the end of the day I look at the numbers and when I see backlog up double digit like it is, I'm very encouraged as we head into 2019 and beyond.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
And then just one quick one for Greg on free cash. I think you guys talked about a lot of moving pieces on the pension side and then on the indemnity side, maybe some P&L head that doesn't come quite through on the cash payments. How should we think high level about free cash conversion for 2019 inclusive of the spins in the moving pieces there in?
Greg Lewis:
Again, I think you should think about cash conversion next year as approaching a 100%, even expense. We feel like we're getting into that neighborhood this year. And with the continued opportunity that we do have in working capital, we made really nice stride as I highlighted, 0.6 of a churn improvement year-over-year. And this quarter in particular was sequentially better than last quarter by 2x to 3x as well. We feel like we still have more opportunity to go. So, we're still going to be targeting something plus or minus a couple of points to a 100%, as that number will move a little bit over time depending on specifics but we feel very good about our ability to live in that range.
Darius Adamczyk:
And Josh, I think we're extremely proud of what we've been able to achieve on the working capital side. If you recall couple of years ago, I've made this a priority for the business for us to really monitor the balance sheet as much as we monitor P&L statement. And with this kind of a growth rate that you're seeing, 7% top line, our working capital is now more than $600 million. I mean, that's - I'm very proud of the Honeywell team in terms of what they've been able to accomplish on that perspective and it's coming through in our cash performance.
Operator:
We'll next move to Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Darius, never heard you this excited. It's a bit of a change, we would have expected it from Dave but you've been a little more balanced. So, good result.
Darius Adamczyk:
If Michigan loses tomorrow, I could be more excited, but you know…
Steve Tusa:
So, just on the orders, you kind of threw out defense, you threw out the HPS orders, Intelligrated obviously. When you think about kind of the long cycle businesses, what were total orders up for the long cycle businesses for the quarter kind of in total or if you just want to kind of list maybe a couple ones we didn't hear like UOP or something like that I don’t know what were total orders up for long cycle businesses?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, to give you a specific they’re up 26% year-over-year. Our backlog is up 14% for long cycle and then just to give you a couple of the specifics, HPS projects up 27%, HBS projects up 22%. Intelligrated was actually flat but keep in mind they are up 40% year-to-date so this was tough comps. We’re not - trust me I’m not worried one bit about the growth in the Intelligrated businesses. So that’s why I’m pretty excited today I mean when I always worry about tomorrow and when I see those kinds of numbers come through, I have good reason for optimism. And I think it points to a very bright 2019 and beyond.
Steve Tusa:
And just kind of attacking kind of the base question in a little bit of different way and again this is nearly just kind of like math on actuals. Just using the kind of prior arrow guide of about 3.7 billion and stripping out kind of $500 million number last nine months or for the year for Transport, gets me down to kind of around 3.1. Is that kind of the right arrow pro forma roughly I mean that's just basic math on what you got and already given.
Greg Lewis:
I think you’re in the neighborhood.
Steve Tusa:
And then just for HBT kind of similar math gets me to around 1.1 type of number - do that sound right?
Greg Lewis:
Let us check that one and make sure that one is obviously a little bit less precise given the Homes building split but we’ll come back to on that one particular.
Steve Tusa:
And then just one last one for you - the restructuring next year is a little bit higher than I would have expected. I don't view that as necessarily negative, but what is when all is said and done given that it seems like everybody is wants to ignore restructuring in other companies these days. What is kind of the normal run rate restructuring number for you guys in this kind of new constructs going forward do you think longer-term?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes I don't know if there is such a thing as normal number. It is dropping significantly year-over-year by more than $100 million. So it’s coming down some of it is measured with slightly smaller Honeywell. But we still have as you recall back the EPG one of the things we have plenty of runway for and what Torsten's number one mission and you head integrated supply chain is to really reduce our fixed cost base. So that's where most of that funding is going to be going next year and it's a fairly substantial change in terms of the cost structure of Honeywell. And A) reducing it and B) making it - converting it from being much more fixed oriented to variable oriented. So we’re going to need some continued restructuring funding, I don’t know if I can give you sort of a normal number. I would think that it still going to be elevated at kind of the levels we projected for 2019 and probably for 2020 and probably after that come down a bit more as we get some of that heavy lifting done. So that's the way to kind frame it up and think about it.
Operator:
We'll next go to Scott Davis with Mellitis Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Hi, it’s not much to pick on for sure but one of the things that was thrown out there when you're doing the spins was potentially doing buildings with the resi business and you didn't - you kept all things. But what gets you excited about buildings turning, I mean this is long been really kind of a three percentage growth business not really much better than GDP probably not better than GDP. But you said in your prepared remarks some new products and things like, so give us kind of sales pitch if you will on why you kept that business?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, first of all let’s start with connected buildings. I think our technology offering in connected buildings is maybe as further along than any of the other connected. I mean we have ready to go technologies that we're currently offering and selling and you heard an example of that in our pitch this morning. So I'm very excited that we really need to be much more commercially savvy to really clearly explain to our customers what that will do for in their building in terms of energy consumption, comfort, security, well-being of the occupants and so on. So I'm very excited about their technology and it's not futuristic it's here now. I think we just got to get through the commercial challenges that we’re facing. Number two, the market dynamics between the resi and the commercials are very different. The competitors are different, I feel good about our position, I feel good about the installed base we have. I think it's a business that can and should do more. Three, as I think we also have to remember that we created this Homes P&L from scratch, I mean think about this Scott, I mean we did more than 20 manufacturing transitions in a course of the year. If I didn't have that kind of hard deadlines that we’re going to get this done in a year that would probably taken three. So that team has been done a tremendous job in executing that kind of heavy lift and I think they performed pretty well given that kind of a distraction. So - now that that’s basically behind them, I’m going to modern it I’m continue to be optimistic about what we’re doing. I was with Vimal Kapur and his team earlier this week and they got their hand on the post, and I think that could be a very successful business for us.
Scott Davis:
Transnorm seems interesting but I don’t know the company very well I mean can you just give a little bit sense of what other than the installed base that you are getting I mean what you’re getting from a standpoint of technology, is that something you can the synergies at least within Intelligrated is that something you can take more Intelligrated Europe and more Transnorm with U.S. or does it not work that way?
Darius Adamczyk:
No, it doesn’t work - is in fact in Intelligrated was a customer of Transnorm so we know the product it is IP protected. It is actually technology differentiated as a high aftermarket services component which I always look for in any business. It has a very enviable position in Europe and frankly I was looking for beachhead to land in Europe Intelligrated. We’ve been spending a lot of organic dollars what I call just part of their R&D and sales and commercial build-out to have a broader presence in Europe. Our U.S. customers' has been asking us to really have a broader presence in Europe and I frankly wanted to add a business that gives us a much broader foothold. On top of that, I really like the business. We were able to pick it up what I view is a very appealing price in this kind of a market environment that we're in. We’ve differentiated technology and IP protection. So, I think it's I’m thrilled and as you know Scott I really like the warehouse automation space.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Darius, Aerospace has continued strength in here this cycle and obviously you do have more difficult comparison to 2019 but it’s hard not to notice the momentum that Honeywell has given it share on the new business jet platforms that are coming to the market. You've talked about connectivity, defense obviously strong. So as you look at the continued product rev in 2019, does it seem like the visibility here toward call it above normal cycle growth and Aero was higher than usual in 2019 and maybe beyond?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, we continue to be bullish in Aero and as you look at our backlog position there's no reason not to be. But you know your initial point is right to which is our comps get a little bit tougher given the kind of growth rates that we seen. If you look at - a little more details of the numbers the two that really pop out at you especially here in Q3 is one is the growth in the business jet market. That's been - that hasn’t been a high-performer for quite awhile I mean and now it starting to really pop as lot of the new platforms are being introduced into the marketplace. And two the used equipment inventory is down, I mean it’s down substantial which is always a good time and a good sign in terms of new equipment sales. And defense and space, defense is continues to be very strong. We don't think that that's going to change as we head into 2019 potentially it could be a slight down arrow in terms of OEM momentum I don't really expect that to be the case, but that maybe the only place where I’m a little bit nervous. But all in all, I continue to be pretty bullish on the aerospace segment because all three of these tracks that we always kind of talk about which is the commercial, the business jet and defense are all kind of pointing either strongly up or up. So 2019 looks very promising based on what we’re seeing today.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
And maybe Darius or Greg, you mentioned the tariff impact so far but manageable. You continue to work to mitigate all the tariff impacts. But maybe could you elaborate in your comments, I think Greg you said the tariff impact in 2019 could impact margin. How much more ability do you have to price increase in tariffs? You talked about changes that you might make, you talked about sort of looking at your supply chain. So maybe more color there if possible?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, so, in our last discussions we talked about the fact that what we're seeing in 2018 in terms of pressure was in the $10s of millions. And as you bring List 3 and List 4 into play and you layer that on over the entirety of 2019 that starts getting into more like triple digits, $100s of millions. And we still feel good about our ability to price in the market. And we've been successful and continue to take aggressive approaches in that regard. And then as it relates to changes in supply chain, we talked about the fact that we're local-for-local and that's been very helpful for us but we are making a few small moves. You're not going to see us make big overhauls to the supply chain but there are certain spots where strategically we are going to make a couple of changes in those flows. So, again, the challenge the hill gets steeper but the level of rigor and attention to this has been at a very high level for the last eight months and is going to continue as we go into 2019. The pressure comment is, as you know when you price in the market and you price cost up, so revenue goes up and margins go up by a commensurate amount. But that's just a pressure on your margin rate. So that's really what I was referring to there, not so much that we're not going to be able to cover the profit impact of the inflation itself, but it's just that inflationary environment with pricing turns into a margin expansion challenge on the upside.
Darius Adamczyk:
And if I could just add, I think there's a lot of unknowns, right. I mean, you have List 3, which potentially that - that rate goes up at the end of the year and then you have a potential List 4, we have timing which isn't particularly clear. So, there's a lot of - there's a lot of unknowns here. We're working through all the norms and I feel very confident in the process that we're building in our - all of our businesses are all over this in terms of taking any and all levers they can. But still a lot of unknowns in terms of what's going to happen at the end of the year, what's on List 4, the level of List 4 and timing. So, we're prepared, we're ready to act and we're trying to mitigate the best we can.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Darius, it seems you're building a very focused Aerospace Company but maybe in a more measured manner. Just looking at Aerospace post Garrett, it looks to be somewhat accretive to margin and maybe eliminate the business that wasn't a perfect fit within that group. What sort of opportunities arise for the Aerospace segment in terms of profitability and maybe how are you thinking about the rest?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I think the Aerospace Group has been very good at a couple of things, especially last couple of years. Number one is, they're certainly continuing to drive productivity and becoming much more efficient. There's a high level of expertise in terms of what they can accomplish, and I think they're far from done. So, there's a further opportunity to do that. Number two is, they're much more installed base focus in terms of the upgrades, enhancements, software enhancements and so on, which obviously continue to build accretion to the margin rate. And overall I like how their team is executing. They had a great wins in lot of different platforms and the execution is strong and I particularly like the progress on the commercial side of the business. And connected aircraft continues to be a very big opportunity, which we realize longer term. And I pointed this out, we look for a 25 plus kind of a margin rate. We think that that's very possible in that business and we're going to continue to make much forward as Tim and the team continuing to make progress there.
Operator:
We'll next go to Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin:
When was the last time that U.S. grew faster than China for you guys?
Darius Adamczyk:
It's a very good point. It's been a while but it's interesting how the global markets are evolving right now. And as I look into 2019 kind of an early take is, I think U.S. is going to be a very robust market again. Now, there's a lot of moving pieces in the geopolitical environment right now but right now it continues to look strong.
Andrew Obin:
And I guess a follow-up question on that. How does your strategy, you had a strategy really focusing on high growth regions, U.S. going to be a key market but not really a growth market; how are you thinking about capacity availability in the U.S., for example, some of your competitors are talking on process specifically in our shortage of engineers, they're sort of at the limit not really able to take more project, and are we seeing contagion from China in high growth region? So, just a follow-up question.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, I think I'm very encouraged and thrilled to see that kind of growth rate, GDP growth that we're seeing in the U.S. I think it's been terrific. But as you look at, overall if you look at the GDP growth in some of the high growth regions, over the long term they're still likely to be higher than the U.S. I mean obviously U.S. has increased its rate but so our high growth focus strategy I think is still spot on and needs to be. And we're going to stay committed to growing in high growth regions as well as the U.S. In terms of investment and profile and so on, I mean, I've always said all along that I believe in being local-for-local, meaning that I want to be able to serve North America from North America, I want to be able to serve China from China and Europe from Europe. To me that just makes perfect sense. I want to have people that have a mind set for their local markets both from R&D, manufacturing, sales, marketing, all these perspectives. And now as we kind of restructure and looked at our fixed cost base, that's exactly the model we're going to. We're pretty mature along the path already. But the short story is, to the extent I continue to see this kind of a growth in the U.S., we're obviously going to be continuing to invest in creating our capacity here in the U.S. to make sure we properly serve the market. And based on what we're seeing this year, we're going to be investing in 2019.
Andrew Obin:
And if I could slip one more, you sort of highlighted that productivity was a contributor to strong cash flows, it's just very impressive that despite very robust growth this business is generating working capital. What about the business model that enables this generation, is there a pay back or this is a kind of business that can actually generate robust cash flows as it grows?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I think it can. Number one is, sort of the business profile and the timing of payments particularly for projects business, they are very favorable. Number two, they've done a terrific job in managing their working capital. It's a point of focus and emphasis. Three, and this is something we've done across our business, which is, we're really looking in standardizing some of terms and conditions. That's been frankly I would say it wasn't sort of cleanest structure that we had and now we're really standardizing and cleaning that up and it's generating benefits. And it's not just for us, yes. It's really true of all of our businesses. So, a lot of things moving in the right direction there, certainly for SPS, but all of our businesses as well.
Operator:
We'll next go to Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
So just more of a comment than a question. You got two same prices this quarter. So, you seem like you're in good shape to manage the extra inflationary pressures from tariffs. But you're the only to potentially for - the companies that are so far. So, I'm wondering, are you sort of working on the base case assumption that the 25% goes in place in January and that we get less full and are you taking preemptive actions to anticipate and get ahead of those potentials?
Greg Lewis:
Yes, I mean the short answer is, yes. I mean, we are getting ready. I'm not saying we now started pulling the trigger on all those actions but I think always the way we kind of think about things as we always have to assume the worst case situation and then be prepared. We haven't pulled all the levers for the 25% yet, but we're going to be ready and we're assuming that that will happen. Frankly we think that that probably is obviously increasing as more time goes by and we have to be ready. So I would say not all the levers have been pulled yet, but we’re certainly preparing them and feel very good about our ability to mitigate all and most of that impact.
Nigel Coe:
And then quicker follow-on, going back to free cash flow because to my mind that was the real highlight and a great quarter. You call out SPS and that PMT as particularly strong contributor of cash. Is that because Aero and the HBT were with the spins we're introducing quite a bit conversion or was there some catch-up here I mean maybe any commentary in terms of free cash conversion by business would be helpful?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I’ll start and maybe turnover, I think you nailed I mean from an HBT perspective when you have to do two spins and you have do this many transitions, there is some level of inefficiency particularly in the inventory situation because you were doing a lot of plant separations and so on. And as I stated before I think the team has done just an incredible job to get us ready. Aero they have done a great job on receivables, payables and so on but inventory is still an opportunity. I think we all know about some of the challenges that the aerospace supply chain is facing so there is probably further gains to be made there. But they've done really nice job. And then SPS has been tremendous across the board whether we talk about all three elements of working capital advances and so on. And then PMT really picking up the pace particular in receivables they got lot of pass-throughs that are now coming in and really nice momentum in building into Q4 and we think that there is even more upside there.
Greg Lewis:
Yes Aero is up so they had a good performance to, I think they just have a head start in terms of the disciplined aspects as Darius talked about with things like terms and so on. So, in many ways we’re actually modeling a lot of the aerospace processes and behaviors and what we’re trying to do elsewhere. So you should definitely not take that comment as Aero is not doing well they actually are growing their cash flow quite nicely also.
Operator:
And our final question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe just a quick question on the HPS, I think in process you talked about a lot of the strength still being a short cycle driven. So just wondered what you're seeing in terms of Greenfield projects large orders there is obviously see some movement in the LNG area, but maybe some offset from a macro uncertainty on large projects in general. So maybe just how you see the Greenfield demand?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean Julian I think the highlight number for me for HPS is projects. We’re up 27% year-over-year in Q3, I mean that's - I think that number speaks for itself. So it's a very impressive number, it gives you an idea that that business continues to win in the marketplace. And I’m very bullish that’s couple on top of the short cycle growth, they are particularly in services and our software businesses, and overall it continues to do very well. So, there is not really much other than good news coming from the HPS world.
Julian Mitchell:
And then my last one would just be around buildings, you talked about the expectation of an improvement in growth there in 2019 and probably beyond. Do you anticipate needing much of a step up in R&D or CapEx or M&A to help drive that growth or you think the run rate of investment is sufficient right now?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think in R&D I think it's - I would say it’s not necessarily a need to increase the R&D level but really to streamline and optimize debt investment around things that really matter. I think that there's frankly - there is a little bit of an opportunity around that area. And Vimal and team are making sure that we’re investing in the proper things and really on things that move the needle and not kind of the incrementalism which require a lot of investment that really don't generate great returns. I think it's certainly an area of opportunity but I think some of their really high performing businesses like fire which have continued to do very well it's not all bad news. And I think there are a lot of good things going on and the buildings part of the portfolio ready. But certainly like in any large business there is couple things we also need to improve. So I'm very confident that that team is going to get it done.
Greg Lewis:
And just again back to the spin taking away the distraction of having to split the company in two fundamentally, that took the effort of the entire organization to go do and now having that done. They’re going to have a lot more time and attention to be able to drive some of that growth as Darius highlighted which we feel very good about the end market and our position there. So it should be good.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, and just to echo what Greg said. I think we all probably underestimated the amount of time effort and organizational focus it takes to do two spins at the same time particularly when you really are creating a new P&L called homes. So I am thrilled with the execution that the team is exhibited.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, I mean you talked about the supply chain changes but we also - we had the clone ERP systems. This was definitely a heavy lift to go do so that team did a great job.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I like to turn the call back over to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for any additional closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. Before I end I want to thank the Honeywell employees and leaders that will begin new careers at Garrett and Resideo for their contributions to the company. Both businesses are starting with strong foundation, a great heritage and I'm confident both will be very successful. We look forward to watching their accomplishment as new public companies. I have full confidence that the strong performance Honeywell will deliver for our shareowners in the first three quarters of 2018 will continue through the year-end. Our order rates are strong, our backlogs are growing and we're realizing the benefits of our continued efforts to drive software and connected growth, productivity, commercial excellence, and improve free cash flow. It is an exciting time to be at Honeywell, and we look forward to sharing more on our progress as we head into 2019. Have a wonderful weekend.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks, Kathy. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. With me here today are our Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Szlosek; and Vice President of Corporate Finance, Greg Lewis. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. For this call, references to earnings per share, free cash flow, free cash flow conversion and effective tax rate exclude impacts from separation costs related to the planned spinoff of our Homes and Transportation Systems businesses as well as the recent tax legislation except where otherwise noted. This morning, we'll review our financial results for the second quarter of 2018, share our guidance for the third quarter and provide an update to our 2018 outlook. And as always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, I will turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Honeywell delivered another outstanding quarter of earnings per share of $2.12, up 18% year-over-year, exceeding the high end of our guidance range. Using our effective tax rate guidance for the quarter of 24%, earnings per share was $2.06 or $0.03 above the high end of our guidance range. Tom will take you through these details momentarily. Our earnings this quarter were driven by organic sales growth of 6%. The sales growth was strong across the portfolio with double-digit growth in the Aerospace defense business and the SPS warehouse automation business. We expect the sales momentum to continue throughout the second half of the year as our long-cycle orders were up 11% and our long-cycle backlog was up 14% with noteworthy backlog strength in Intelligrated, defense, business aviation, UOP and HPS services. I will touch on our revised full year guidance in a minute. We expanded segment margin by 60 basis points, which also exceeded our guide. Strong operational performance drove our exceptional margin result, and we benefited from higher volumes, continued investments in commercial excellence and mature productivity. We achieved these results while investing in our future, particularly in connected enterprises, research and development and in our global sales force. So far, we've also overcome the impacts of inflation. Greg will cover that in more detail later in the call. Free cash flow was again a highlight this quarter at about $1.7 billion, up 42% year-over-year, excluding separation costs. Conversion this quarter was 108%, the highest second quarter conversion we've had in 5 years. This continuous the improving trends we saw in the first quarter as our HOS Gold working capital tool set continues to deliver results. Finally, we continued to aggressively deploy capital, repurchasing about $800 million in Honeywell shares. In total, in the first half, we repurchased about $1.7 billion in Honeywell shares as we continue to take advantage of our opportunities in the marketplace to be more aggressive from a capital deployment perspective. We're also tracking well against the cash repatriation plan we reviewed at our Investor Day in February, which contemplated more than $4 billion of cash being repatriated in 2018. We brought back nearly $2.2 billion into the U.S. through the second quarter. Today, we are raising our full year 2018 organic sales growth guidance to a new range of up to 5% to 6%, our segment margin expansion to 40 to 60 basis points, our EPS guidance to a new range of $8.05 to $8.15 or up 13% to 15% and our full year free cash flow guidance to $5.6 billion to $6.2 billion. Compared to prior range, our EPS guidance is now $0.20 higher at the low end and $0.10 higher at the high end. These changes reflect both our second quarter performance and our confidence in the company's ability to continue outperforming for the remainder of the year. Our end markets are strong. We're executing well, as evidenced by our margin and cash performance, and we have significant balance sheet capacity still to deploy. I'm encouraged by our performance to date and expect more of the same in the second half. Let's turn to Slide 3 to highlight some of the recent exciting news in our businesses. In Aerospace, Dassault Aviation launched FalconConnect, a comprehensive solution designed to facilitate use, management of -- and control of in-flight connectivity. FalconConnect is powered by Honeywell's routers, services ground infrastructure and GoDirect connectivity services and is designed to make connectivity as efficient as possible for operators, crews and passengers. It includes both classic and high-speed cabin Internet, cockpit safety links, standard ground communications and a wide range of value-added services designed to maximize data control and minimize costs. FalconConnect is available on all Dassault Falcon jets, making Honeywell GoDirect the preferred service provider for operators flying Falcons. Last month, Honeywell released a comprehensive study about the connected aircraft, which found that the commercial aviation industry is at the beginning of a 5-year technology investment wave fueled by the advances in high-speed in-flight WiFi connectivity. The study found that about half of the respondents expect to spend up to $1 million per aircraft on connectivity technologies over the next year and 17% of respondents expect to spend more than $10 million per aircraft over the next 5 years. Honeywell is at the forefront of innovation when it comes to connected aircraft, and we are well positioned to continue to win in this fast-growing space. In Home and Building Technologies, the building owner of the Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest structure, is currently piling a Honeywell connected building outcome-based service, which uses building performance data to focus maintenance activities where they are most needed in order to improve operational efficiency, maximize uptime and improve the integrity of the security systems. So far, the pilot, which encompassed the mechanical components of the Burj Khalifa's HVAC system, has resulted in a 40% reduction in total maintenance hours and a significant reduction in unplanned reactive maintenance, helping the building operators lower their maintenance cost for this landmark facility in Dubai. In Performance Materials and Technologies, ExxonMobil announced that the Honeywell Process Solutions' Experion LCN software approach to migrate their legacy installed base DCS systems eliminates the need for costly rip and replace DCS migrations. Experion LCN enables infinite longevity of our customers' DCS systems by preserving their intellectual property. ExxonMobil indicated that Honeywell exceeded their expectations, met their challenge 2 years ahead of the schedule and gave Honeywell and A on the development of this unique and cost-effective offering. The comments were made at Honeywell Users Conference Group, or HUG, which took place in San Antonio last month. The event brings together more than 1,300 customers, channel partners, suppliers and other industry participants from 32 countries to discuss the latest technology and innovations in the process automation space. Finally, in Safety and Productivity Solutions, Honeywell Intelligrated provided the material handling equipment design, installation and support for Amazon's new more than 0.5 million square foot distribution center north of Calgary. Once it opens later this year, the facility will complement a larger network of Amazon fulfillment centers throughout Canada. The Intelligrated system includes more than 4,800 linear meters of conveyor, an IntelliSort high-speed slide and shoe routing sorter, which achieves the highest speeds of any piece of equipment in the facility while maintaining the precision to handle even fragile items and an even bigger IntelliSort cross-belt shipping sorter that stretches 529 meters in length. This system helps workers efficiently pick, pack and ship orders so they arrive on the customer's doorsteps on time. Our connected offerings are transforming the industries in which we participate, leveraging our large installed base to help our customers gain a competitive advantage in the markets they serve. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Tom, who will discuss our second quarter results in more detail.
Thomas Szlosek:
Well, thank you, Darius. Good morning. Let me begin on Slide 4. As Darius mentioned, we delivered another quarter that was strong across the portfolio and in every financial metric. Organic growth was widespread, with about 70% of the portfolio growing organically 5% or more in the quarter and about 2/3 of our organic growth coming from increased volumes. The markets we serve are strong, and our continued organic sales growth reflects our leading market positions and the investments we've made in new products and in our sales organization. The difference between reported and organic sales is primarily the impact of the weaker U.S. dollar in the first half compared to 2017. For example, the euro averaged about $1.20 in the second quarter of '18 versus about $1.10 in 2017. Segment profit was up 12% in the quarter, and segment margin expanded by 60 basis points to 19.6%, primarily due to the benefits from higher sales volumes, commercial excellence and material productivity. Earnings per share of $2.12, up 18%, and exceeded the high end of our guidance range by $0.09. This excludes spin-related separation costs of $346 million in the quarter. We'll walk through the details of the EPS shortly. Free cash flow in the second quarter of $1.7 billion, up 42%, driven by strong operational performance, particularly in Aerospace and PMT. As Darius mentioned, we continue to be encouraged by the progress on our working capital initiatives and by the additional opportunities that we've discovered through this effort. We continue to deploy capital and in the quarter, repurchased about $800 million of Honeywell shares, bringing our year-to-date share repurchases to about $1.7 billion. After growth investments and paying a competitive dividend, our preference is to deploy capital to M&A. But in the absence of immediate opportunities, we'll continue to opportunistically repurchase outstanding shares. As Greg will share with you shortly, we anticipate continuing this repurchase activity in the second half. Overall, strong performance across the board. Slide 5 walks our earnings per share from the second quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2018. The majority of our earnings growth, $0.24, came from segment profit improvement, driven by enhanced sales volumes across the company, the impacts from our commercial excellence efforts, productivity improvements realized through HOS Gold and savings from previously funded and executed restructuring projects. Below the line items were a $0.05 tailwind this quarter, primarily due to higher pension income, driven by the strong investment performance in the plan and a lower discount rate. This impact was partially offset by higher funding or new repositioning and other projects in the quarter, including about $60 million in high-return restructuring projects. The share repurchase actions in the second quarter resulted in a lower weighted average share count of 755 million shares. Combined with the slightly higher earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest, the share repurchases were a $0.04 tailwind to EPS. We had planned and guided our tax rate at 24% for the quarter compared to 21.3% last year, which would have resulted in a $0.07 headwind to EPS. At this higher 24% planned tax rate, earnings per share would have been $2.06, above the high end of our guidance range by $0.03. We realized a further $0.06 EPS upside from the lower actual tax rate of 21.7% versus that 24% guided rate for the quarter. The tax rate was lower than guided primarily due to the successful resolution of several tax audits. So on a year-over-year basis then, the actual tax rate for the second quarter of 21.7% was slightly higher than the tax rate for 2017 of 21.3%. And despite this headwind, we still achieved an 18% increase in earnings per share. Going forward, we expect the pro forma tax rate for the remainder of the year to be similar to our second quarter tax rate, resulting in an estimated rate for the full year that is still in the 22% to 23% range of our original guidance. Our EPS guidance excludes any potential adjustments to the charge we recorded in the fourth quarter 2017 relating to the U.S. tax legislation as well as separation cost associated with the 2 spinoffs. In the second quarter, we incurred $346 million or $0.46 of separation cost, $291 million of which were tax costs incurred in the restructuring of the ownership of various legal entities in preparation for the spinoffs. Separation costs to date are in line with our expectations. Other items composed of adjustments to the fourth quarter U.S. tax legislation charge were a $0.02 benefit to EPS. So netting out, the 2 items resulted in a $0.44 change in reported range per share to $1.68. Let's turn to Slide 6. Our Aerospace business is performing well in an extremely robust demand environment. Air Transport and Regional flight hours were up 7%. And as you know, the backlogs of our major OEM customers are at record levels. Despite the challenge that this level demand creates for our supply chain, Aerospace sales were up 8% on an organic basis. We had 14% organic growth in defense and space with higher spares volumes on U.S. Department of Defense programs, strong demand for sensors and guidance systems and robust shipment volumes on key programs, including the F-35. And in commercial OE, sales were up 7% organically, driven by robust HTF engine demand in business aviation; air transport deliveries on key narrow-body platforms, including the 737 and the A320; and lower customer incentives, which added 1 point of organic growth to Aerospace in total in the quarter. Organic growth in the aftermarket of 4% was driven by maintenance service program activity in business aviation and strong airlines demand. In addition, our connected aircraft software offerings have grown more than 15% year-to-date, driven by demand for our GoDirect cabin software. In Transportation Systems, sales were up 7% organically on a continued growth in passenger vehicle; gas turbos in China, Europe and South Korea stemming from new launches; and higher commercial vehicle turbo volumes in North America and China. Aerospace segment profit was up 12%. And segment margin expanded 30 basis points, driven by higher sales volumes, commercial excellence and lower year-over-year customer incentives. In the quarter, there was a 30 basis point headwind from foreign currency, primarily in Transportation Systems business. In Home and Building Technologies, organic sales growth was 3% for the quarter. Homes grew 7%, driven by continued double-digit growth in residential thermal solutions and strong thermostat demand in North America and Europe. Similar to the first quarter, sales grew across all regions in ADI. In buildings, organic sales were flat year-over-year. The commercial fire business was strong in North America and Europe as well as our Connected Buildings business, driven by demand for our Tridium building management platform. In addition, activity in the high-growth regions within Building Solutions was robust with double-digit organic sales growth in the quarter, primarily in India. However, the overall buildings organic growth was tempered by slower bookings and revenue conversion in the North America energy vertical in Building Solutions. HBT segment margins expanded 60 basis points, driven by commercial excellence, the benefits from previously funded and executed restructuring and higher sales volumes. In Performance Materials and Technologies, sales were up 3% on an organic basis, driven by growth in Process Solutions and UOP. Sales in Process Solutions were up 5% organically, largely due to solid backlog conversion in the project automation and solution business and significant growth in the service business. UOP sales were up 3% organically, driven by engineering and catalyst growth, the latter being driven by new units in China and refining catalyst reloads. The clients in gas processing and hydrogen from lower modular gas equipment sales partly offset the growth in the rest of UOP. UOP backlog was up 7% in the quarter, pointing to continued to steady sales growth for the second half. In Advanced Materials, there was continued growth in solstice low global warming products within Fluorine Products. However, this was offset by lower volumes and a temporary unplanned plant shutdown in specialty products. PMT segment margins expanded 50 basis points, driven by commercial excellence, benefits from previously funded and executed restructuring and higher volumes, partly offset by inflation and a temporary lower weighting of higher-margin sales within the catalyst and gas processing businesses. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, sales were up 11% on an organic basis. We had another strong quarter in Intelligrated with continued new projects activity in the e-commerce area. Intelligrated's orders growth this quarter was again very strong, up more than 40%, adding to an already robust project backlog. There is double-digit growth in productivity products, driven by demand for new Android-based mobility product offerings, coupled with strong growth in scanning and printing applications. The Android launches that we've been previewing are gaining traction with our customers and winning versus the competition in the marketplace. Organic growth in the safety business was 5%, with strength in the gas protection and high-risk product categories. Additionally, the SPS China and India businesses each grew more than 20%. SPS generated impressive margin expansion of 150 basis points, enabled by higher sales volumes, commercial excellence and benefits from previously funded and executed restructuring. We're extremely pleased with SPS performance this quarter. Greg is now going to cover our outlook for the third quarter and the rest of the year. But before he does, I want to reaffirm the confidence I expressed in Greg when we announced in April that he's taking over as CFO of Honeywell effective August 3. Greg and I have worked together since he joined Honeywell in 2006. I can assure you that he has the business acumen, finance acuity, determination and commitment required to excel as the CFO of Honeywell. Working with him every day for the last 3 months on the transition has only reinforced my confidence. I'm a shareowner, and I will sleep well with Greg at the helm. So over to you, Greg.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you very much, Tom. I appreciate the confidence. Let's move on to Slide 7, and I'd like to start by discussing two important items as a backdrop to our forward look, tariffs and the spins. Let's start with tariffs. We're proactively managing both the direct and the indirect impacts from the Section 232 and 301 tariffs. We've evaluated and addressed the list of the first $50 billion of goods affected by Section 301 as well as the retaliatory offsets and are currently assessing the potential additional $200 billion of targeted tariffs. We have seen inflation accelerate in a number of areas within the business, most notably in transportation and logistics and in metals. And our procurement, marketing and commercial excellence teams are proactively working on offsets to minimize the impact to our P&L. Based on the tariffs enacted to date and our mitigation actions across the portfolio, we anticipate a minimal impact to our overall business results in 2018. But this is a very dynamic situation that changes by the day, as further evidenced by this morning's headlines, and we're giving it substantial focus. We've established a robust set of processes in each of our businesses and at the corporate level to ensure we stay on top of the situation. For the known items, we are monitory and rigorously addressing cost increases to our supply chain and adjusting our pricing as necessary. I'm encouraged by what our teams have accomplished so far. Now for 2019, we're evaluating more structural solutions for longer-term tariff impacts, including potentially bringing on new sources of supply, where needed. Now let's discuss our progress on our 2 spinoffs, Transportation Systems and Homes. Both businesses are being operationalized, and we're making great progress on building up the leadership teams for each. Earlier this week, you saw the appointment of Carlos Cardoso as Chairman of the Board of Transportation Systems, which will be called Garrett. We're pleased to have a leader with such an impressive track record to strengthen an already well-equipped global business leadership team led by Olivier Rabiller. On the external side for both spins, we have filed the draft Form 10s with the SEC and are working through the comment letter process for each. We have completed rating agency presentations and are preparing for the debt and equity roadshows for both companies. In short, we are on track for the completions of both spins in 2018, and both businesses are performing well, as you saw, and we look forward to updating you as the spin dates become clearer. Lastly, just a reminder that both our quarterly EPS guidance and our full year guidance includes earnings for both spin companies for the full year and excludes separation costs related to those spins and any adjustments to the tax charge we recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017 related to U.S. tax reform. We had a minor favorable adjustment to the charge in the second quarter. These favorable adjustments may be larger in the second half of the year, and we'll provide you with updates as we move forward. Now let's move to Slide 8, and we'll discuss our outlook for the third quarter. Overall, our strong order rates and a growing backlog are expected to drive third quarter organic sales growth in the range of 5% to 7%. Segment margins are expected to expand 30 to 50 basis points, driven by those increased volumes, commercial excellence and material productivity, similar to what we saw in the second quarter. We anticipated third quarter earnings per share of $1.95 to $2 or growth of 11% to 14% with a tax rate of approximately 22%. Moving on to the businesses. In Aerospace, we expect continued strength in commercial aviation, original equipment sales with higher shipment volumes on the Boeing 737, the Embraer L450 and L500 and Dassault F8X platforms. Used business jet inventories are at their lowest levels since before the financial crisis. A number of new aircraft certifications will occur in 2018, and we have good positions on the right platforms across the super midsized and large business jet cabin aircraft. In the aftermarket, we expect continued demand driven by airline flight hours growth in ATR and maintenance service plan activity in business aviation. We anticipate continued double-digit growth for the connected aircraft, driven by demand for JetWave hardware and GoDirect services. In Defense & Space, we expect another strong quarter, driven by demand for sensors and guidance systems in the U.S. and abroad and spares volume into U.S. DoD and international defense programs. Within transportation systems, we expect strong gas turbo demand, driven by new platform launches in Europe to continue. In Home and Building Technologies, we expect strong demand from our commercial fire and connected building technologies, but this will largely be offset by the impact of declines in the energy backlog in Building Solutions in the first half. Within Homes, we anticipate continued growth in products, driven by demand for thermostats and residential thermal solutions and continued strength in ADI. On Performance Materials and Technologies, we are anticipating healthy growth in each of our businesses in the third quarter. In Process Solutions, we expect continued backlog conversion in the projects business and short-cycle demand in the software and life cycle solutions and services businesses, driven by our strong first half short-cycle orders growth. In Advanced Materials, we expect continued strength from customer adoption of our solstice low-global warming products and Fluorine Products and better volumes in specialty products. In UOP, we expect robust equipment, engineering and catalyst demand with continued growth from new catalyst units in China. Based on the timing and composition of those expected catalyst shipments in the second half, we do expect that PMT margins will be down in the third quarter, but those margin rates will significantly increase in the fourth quarter. Those quarter-to-quarter dynamics are not unusual in this business, and I believe we've talked about them before. Finally, in Safety and Productivity Solutions, we expect continued outperformance in Intelligrated, driven by strong orders growth and project backlog awarded in the first half of 2018. In productivity products, we expect that our new mobility product launches continue to gain momentum in the marketplace, building on a strong second quarter. In safety, we expect growth in all industrial safety categories and continued growth in retail as we approach the holiday season. China and India are each anticipated to have another quarter of double-digit growth. Now moving to Slide 9 to discuss our full year guidance. As Darius mentioned, we've raised our full year sales, segment margin, earnings per share and free cash flow guidance to reflect our strong performance in the second quarter and confidence in our outlook for the second half of 2018. Our revised guidance incorporates the minor impacts of the currently known tariffs. We'll continue to monitor the plans to address the impacts, if any, from other potential tariffs that have been announced but not yet enacted. Full year organic sales are now expected to be up 5% to 6%. This is driven by favorable conditions in our end markets, our emphasis on organic growth initiatives like commercial excellence and continued penetration at the high-growth regions, along with robust long cycle order rates and backlogs. We've narrowed our segment margin guidance to 40 to 60 basis points, the high end of our prior range, which reflects our strong first half and confidence in strong sales volumes in the second half. We significantly increased our free cash flow guidance to a new range of $5.6 billion to $6.2 billion, driven by higher net income and better working capital performance across the business, as you've seen in the second quarter. This new range implies conversion of 92% to 100%, a strong improvement from the 90% we posted in 2017. Our estimates for the full year effective tax rate continue to be between 22% and 23%. We have also raised our full year EPS guidance by $0.20 on the low end and $0.10 in the high end, as Darius mentioned. This new range of $8.05 to $8.15 represents earnings growth of 13% to 15%. Our guidance reflects the revised weighted average share count of 754 million shares, which includes the $1.7 billion in share repurchases in the first half and an estimate of the repurchases planned for the remainder of 2018. We anticipate this will provide a $0.03 benefit to EPS in the second half of the year versus our previous guide. On a segment level, we now expect Aerospace organic sales growth to be 7% to 8% versus the previous guidance range of 3% to 5%, driven by the continued recovery of the business aviation market and robust demand within our defense business. In Home and Building Technologies, we raised the low end of our organic sales guidance by 1 point to 2% to 3% and the low end of our margin guidance by 10 basis points to 30 to 50 basis points improvement. Our organic growth and margin outlook for Performance Materials and Technologies has not changed. However, we have updated the reported sales outlook to reflect the headwinds and foreign currency translation in the second half of the year. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, we have increased our organic sales growth expectations to 7% to 8% versus the previous guidance range of 4% to 6% and increased our segment margin guidance to a new range of 16.0% to 16.2%, up 90 to 110 basis points for the year. Safety and Productivity Solutions had an outstanding second quarter, and our investments in the Intelligrated business and the new Android-based product launches within productivity products are delivering for us. Our revised outlook reflects increased confidence that SPS will continue to deliver in the second half of the year. So let's wrap up on Slide 10. Honeywell delivered outstanding operational performance in the second quarter with 6% organic sales growth, 60 basis points of margin expansion, 18% earnings growth and 42% free cash flow growth. On top of our financial performance, we continue to make significant progress in becoming a software industrial leader. Our connected offerings are helping our customers solve critical challenges across our large installed base. We expect the momentum we have seen in the first half of the year to continue within the second half. Our orders rates remain strong, and our backlog continues to grow. Soon, we will spin off our Transportation Systems and Homes businesses. We have made great progress to prepare both to stand alone as independently publicly traded companies. We look forward to sharing more on our continued strong performance with you as the year progresses. And with that, let's move to Mark for Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks, Greg. Darius, Tom and Greg are now available to answer your questions. So Kathy, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question is coming from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie:
Greg, welcome to the call. And Tom, it's been great working with you the last five years. Wishing nothing but the best in retirement.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thanks, Joe.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you, Joe.
Joseph Ritchie:
Maybe just starting off. Obviously, organic growth has been really good the last four quarters. You're taking up the organic growth guidance for the year. It's interesting to see that long-cycle backlog continuing to grow double digits as well. So maybe, Darius, just touch on how much visibility do you already have going into 2019 on -- just based on how good your long-cycle businesses are performing today?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I mean, as you kind of think about that 60-40 split that we talked about before, obviously, I'm gaining more confidence by the day because that kind of backlog growth -- double-digit backlog growth, double-digit growth in orders is tremendous. We're actually very bullish also on the PMT segment kicking in much more significantly in the second half based on the activity of our pipeline. So obviously, as I look forward to 2019, although I'm still focused on 2018, we've got a couple quarters to go, but there's no question that based on what we're seeing, we're -- the things are shaping up nicely for another strong year in 2019 based on current activity.
Joseph Ritchie:
Yes, it seems like it. And it's interesting to see you guys call out Amazon today. I think that was the first time, at least, that I had heard their name mentioned. I'm just curious, like, whether you're starting to deepen your relationship there and maybe just any color around that specific project in Canada would be helpful.
Darius Adamczyk:
Amazon has been a great customer. We've had a long-term partnership. We're -- in some ways, we're a supplier and a customer. So it kind of goes in both directions. The Intelligrated solutions are extraordinary well respected. And they hit the part of warehouse automation that's growing the fastest, and that's around e-commerce. I've talked about that before. That, that is truly the sweet spot of Intelligrated offerings is in the high speed, high throughput. That's a solution that's second to none, and we're seeing that being reflected in our growth rates. And as I said before in a number of calls, this will turn out to be the -- probably the best acquisitions we've ever done, and I continue to feel very strongly about that.
Joseph Ritchie:
Got it. Maybe if I could sneak one more in. Look, you guys have been talking about this improvement in cash flow now for a couple years and we're really, really starting to see the benefits of it. Just curious whether there were any kind of onetime benefits that helped you this quarter on the cash flow conversion and how you guys are thinking about that now that you've raised your guidance for the year on the free cash flow side?
Darius Adamczyk:
No, I'm glad you asked that question, Joe, because that is -- to me, that's a real highlight of the quarter. I mean, I really think that the kind of focus we've had within the company on working capital, on terms, on executing on our inventory, receivables, all those things are really kind of coming together and being reflected. Our working capital turn are getting better. We're getting less -- driving less capital intensity. A lot of the investments we're paying that we've made are paying off, and it's a really, really nice story. And it kind of all came together here in Q2 cash flow, and we expect that momentum to continue. So we feel good about what we're doing. We'll continue to add more tools to HOS Gold to help our teams drive working capital, and it's really gratifying to see a lot of that come through in the numbers. And we're not done. We've got more tailwinds ahead of us so...
Greg Lewis:
Yes. Maybe I could just add to that. This has been a 4-quarter story. I mean, we've got 4/10 of a turn improvement versus a year ago but you're seeing sequentially each quarter that number continues to get better. We've improved by about 1/10 of a turn in each of the most recent 4 quarters, so that is definitely a momentum shift with the efforts that have been going on around the business.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Scott Davis of Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
I'll share a similar commentary. Tom, it's been a pleasure. You've had a great run and deserve a lot of credit for following the big footsteps of Mr. Anderson. And Greg, I'm sure you'll do a great as well. So it's been a pleasure.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thanks, Scott.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you.
Scott Davis:
There's just not been much to pick on with you folks in a couple years, but the building side of the business is one that I always kind of struggled to figure out what it is. It's a good business or not a good business. But what do you think keeps the building owners from spending money? I mean, they should be cash flowing pretty well right now. Why aren't they investing more heavily? Do you guys have a sense to that?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, I think, frankly, it's a little bit of -- we have to do an even better job of communicating the value of our connected buildings. But as we talked about in some of our win examples, when you secure a building like the Burj Khalifa, which is kind of the -- not probably as prestigious a building as there is anywhere in the world and the building owner sees the value in our connected building solutions, that tells you something. So I think that there is more headway here for us. Frankly, also in Q2, we had some operational issues on the electronic side. So this print could have been a little bit better than it actually was. We're working through our backlog situation that should correct itself in Q3 and Q4. But overall, we feel pretty good about the kind of offerings we have. And I'd say something else in the Connected Buildings. We're in different steps of evolution of all our connected plays, whether it's connected aircraft, connected buildings, plant and so on. I actually think that a lot of the solutions that we have in connected buildings are more commercial-ready than maybe a lot of the other offerings that we have. So we've installed a new leader in HBT with a great deal of confidence, and [indiscernible] has tremendous track record in process solutions. And we're very confident he's going to do the same in HBT.
Scott Davis:
Okay. Just as a quick follow-up, guys. The -- what percentage of revenues do you think are connected now? So I know you have got a big potential for connectivity, but is it -- is it something you can really measure at this juncture?
Darius Adamczyk:
Think about -- yes, it's north of $1.5 billion that's purely the connected revenues. That's not the total software business, just to be clear.
Scott Davis:
Yes, understood. And I imagine that's strong free cash flow as well probably, right?
Darius Adamczyk:
Absolutely.
Operator:
We will now move to Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.
Charles Tusa:
Congrats to Greg. Tom, thanks for all your help. Congrats also on a great run.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thank you, Steve.
Greg Lewis:
Thanks, Steve.
Charles Tusa:
And Darius, I think you can shorten the intro on Intelligrated and just say Amazon, and I think people will be pretty happy with that. So just some advice there. Anyway, just kidding around. So I think Scott took care of most of the nitpicking here. On free cash flow, again, kind of this year, the progress you've made, would you expect to kind of continue to see the progress into 2019? I mean, are these the types of things that, with the business mix and with what you're doing, that you can kind of grow that again a little bit faster perhaps than earnings whatever ever earnings may grow in 2019 as well?
Darius Adamczyk:
Absolutely, Steve. I mean, I think this is -- if you go back to that playbook, and I'll say the playbook really came out all the way in Investor Day of 2016. When you think about all the factors that I talked about, right, which is accelerating our organic growth rate, continued margin enhancement, improved cash conversion, transforming to a software industrial and deploying -- be more aggressive around capital deployment, I think we could put all those things together, we can point clear signs to every one of those things that we're doing. And obviously, cash conversion was one of those elements. We committed to be in the 90s this year. I feel even more confident of us being there, and I continue to be bullish about us making progress in '19 and beyond.
Charles Tusa:
And then you guys, I believe, you bought back another $700 million worth of stock this quarter. And it's a little bit kind of late in the year for M&A, at least to close. So there would seem to be a decent amount of cash that's kind of left over when you think about the kind of annual run rate of potential. Is that the kind of fair way to look at it? That if we get to another quarter here, we'll be pretty consistent on this buyback phase? Or are you more or less bullish about kind of the acquisition pipeline here?
Darius Adamczyk:
No, I have, by no means, given up on getting an acquisition closed this year. I think we still have a shot to do so. We're looking at a number of things. You never know which way they're going to go. I mean, so far, a lot of them have gone left rather than right for one reason or another, but we're far from giving up and getting a decent acquisition done here or maybe even a couple. But the calculus has always been, okay, if we can't deploy capital through acquisitions, bolt-ons, which has always been our preference, then we're going to deploy back in the form of buybacks. And I thought it was a very attractive entry point as I talked about it at the end of Q1 in the $140. So I was more than happy to buy back the shares.
Charles Tusa:
And how much -- if you didn't know deals from here on out, how much would you be able to buy back this year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I mean, we've got a lot -- it's -- we've got a lot of cash in the balance sheet, but I'm not planning on spending all of it so...
Thomas Szlosek:
We talked about, at the beginning of the year, of having capital deployed of $5 billion to $6 billion in total for the full year. And that's available capital. That's not -- we're not committed to like spending every single dollar of that. But it just gives you a sense that that's healthy. And with a better free cash flow, I think we'll have more opportunity.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, the framework I think that I provided, Steve, just to be consistent, and I'd still stick with it, which is if you think about a dividend someplace around the $3 billion mark for the 2 spins, I'm going to have to use some of that to pay down debt, something in the $1 billion to $2 billion range. The rest of that I'm committing to buybacks. So I'm kind of done that already. On top of that, I would do what I need to do to keep share count flat, which is another half or so. And then on top of that, we might do a little bit more. So that's kind of a rough framework. And it's a little bit -- the calculus gets a little fuzzy depending upon whether or not we do have a transaction. It's going to be a little bit less if we do another transaction. It might be a bit more if we don't. So -- and also, we'll see where the entry points are.
Charles Tusa:
No, it's clear. Having more cabbage is better than not having any cabbage. That's very clear.
Operator:
We'll now go to Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.
Jeffrey Sprague:
I just want to again come back to cash flow. And Darius, as you're probably well aware, actually, your conversion is a lot better than it looks to the naked eye, right, given your noncash pension income there is here. So now that we're kind of -- yes, no, it's extraordinary. And so now that we're kind of approaching a level where cash flow per share is kind of in line with your EPS guidance per se, what do you think about maybe trying to do something on pension and kind of taking that out of the equation here? I don't know if you can extract value from it or not. Obviously, it's in great financial shape but just wanted to hear your thoughts on that.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, yes, I mean, obviously, that's something we thought about. We've derisked half of it, so half of that exposure is gone. Our pension is funded at like 113%, 114% range. So even if you think about some kind of a major step back in terms of the market at 20% reduction, we'd still be fully funded. So do we -- there is some benefit to having some below-the-line income as well come through. It does hurt cash conversion, but there are some benefits as well. So obviously, we're thinking about that. No further decisions will be made. But I thought taking at least half that risk completely off the table like we did earlier this year was wise, particularly given were the markets were, and we'll see what we do from here.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then separately, just if we can, can we put a finer point on spin timing? Do you think Turbo can still be a Q3 event? Or is there a little bit of an inclusive slippage? And just your commentary here about both being a second half event.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, no slippage. We are going according to plan. I think we talked about the end of the third quarter for turbo, and that is well aligned with our current thinking. Homes is also coming right behind it. We're very much in the throes of the preparations there as well, so nothing different. I think we feel pretty good about the things that we can control. And obviously, with the SEC process, that one is a bit out of our hands, but it's going well.
Operator:
And we now move to Julian Mitchell of Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks to Tom and welcome to Greg. Maybe just first question about Aerospace. Just wondered how long you thought it was sustainable for Defense & Space to keep outgrowing commercial aftermarket by such a distance. And also, I guess, in commercial aftermarket, should we expect some recovery there or acceleration over the next 12 months given the favorable macro?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. On Defense & Space, they continue to be bullish given what we're seeing in the -- not just the U.S. defense budgets that's certainly positive, but also a lot of the NATO countries' defense budgets. And I don't know if they're all going to reach the 2% of GDP level, but it's very clear that many of them are going up. So that's -- that continues to be -- continue to be bullish on that segment. In terms of kind of the aftermarket part of our business, I think a couple of things to point out. One is we're shifting more of that mix to longer-term contracts. So I discussed this a little bit at the end of Q1. So we're going to see a little bit more of kind of steady-state rather than kind of complete alignment with flight hours. We still feel good about what we did. Two is we have a little bit more of an avionics versus mechanical focus versus some of the others, which probably see greater -- even higher correlation to flight hours. And three is we are still very much in kind of a past due situation on the backlog. I mean, we are seeing some challenges in kind of the Tier 3, Tier 4 supply chains. And frankly, these numbers could have been even better, and we're working through those to -- and we expect to really be in a much, much better shape by the end of the year. But nevertheless, things are a bit too strained on the supply chain and I think that's very consistent with what you're hearing from a lot of the other aerospace players as well.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yes. I would add that I think that we're going to be fine on the aftermarket, but it is tough to compete with the defense backlog. I mean, you saw the growth rates in the quarter, and the backlog is up well into the double digits. So when does that stop, nobody really knows. But right now, for the foreseeable future, that is very strong backlog to work from as well. So you have both of them going in the right direction.
Julian Mitchell:
And then my second question would be switching to Safety and Productivity. So obviously, very good growth in productivity within that. My assumption would have been that a lot of that was fueled by large projects, businesses like Intelligrated that might carry a lower margin. So I'm intrigued, I guess, by the extent of the margin uplift in the guide at SPS. So maybe give any color, I guess, around what's going on in that margin guidance uplift. And are you seeing much better margins on large projects perhaps that you might have done historically?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, a couple of comments. I think certainly, we're seeing better margins there in Intelligrated. But the other thing, let's not forget that, it's been a -- it's a really nice story in SPS throughout all our businesses, granted Intelligrated grew faster than a number of the others. But if you, let's say, look productivity products, which really had a really nice quarter this quarter, double-digit growth, substantial margin expansion, and this is very consistent. If you go back to a lot of the earnings call last year, I talked about us getting that business back on track. And I'm very pleased to see that John and the team really kind of got that business going again. It was a tremendous story. Our SIoT business had another strong quarter. So it's -- the kind of margin expansion growth we're seeing in SPS is just -- it's not just limited to Intelligrated. It's really across the board. There isn't a single business that didn't have a good quarter in SPS.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. And if I could just add, I mean, there is a lot of self-help in the businesses that we had. And if you remember part of the Intelligrated thesis as we have other businesses with that business model and part of the integration benefits is some of those practice is coming over from the HPS projects business, as an example, to the Intelligrated projects business so that we'll run that more efficiently. And they're starting to adopt some of those things as well. So that's part of the expectation of what we had laid out when we bought the business also, was to be able to help it run itself on a much more efficient basis as part of Honeywell.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Deane Dray of RBC Capital markets.
Deane Dray:
Add my congrats to Tom and Greg.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thanks, Deane.
Greg Lewis:
Thank you.
Deane Dray:
I know this is under the category of high-quality problem. But when I hear Intelligrated orders up 40%, it just raises concerns about whether you're -- might be taking on too much your potential risk of overpromising, underdelivering and maybe your pricing is not appropriate if you're seeing that kind of order surge. So just kind of talk us through that. I know it's a high-quality problem, but just take us through what the implications of such rapid growth.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Well, let's start with the pricing because it's a couple of different questions. I mean, I would tell you that Intelligrated margins are expansion -- are expanding, not contracting. A lot of that is due to self-help. We're becoming much more efficient. We're leveraging a much broader global footprint to complete the work. And frankly, this is a technology business. When you can process 400 boxes a minute versus 350, customers are willing to pay for that. And I would say that right now, and it's just going to continue to stay this way. This is the best technology available in the marketplace, so it's pretty clearly to see why we are where we are. In terms of the -- that kind of growth, 40%, that's -- it's not surprising to us. We've known that this was coming. We continue to be very bullish about a lot more growth. So you guys should expect kind of double-digit orders growth here in the second half as well. And we've been preparing for it. We're building out capacity, capability and we're staffing up very, very quickly. We're exceptional at project execution. That's also why we win as often as we do. And frankly, the Intelligrated team is using a lot of the HOS Gold toolkit to continue to execute and also leveraging a lot of the things that were done in Honeywell Process Solutions because the leader now of Intelligrated is somebody who was a leader in HPS. So all those things are kind of coming together, and I feel very bullish on our ability to be able to process that backlog successfully.
Deane Dray:
Good to hear. And just a separate question for Tom and/or Greg. Is the idea on tax reform is there might have been some -- it might be some simplification opportunities in your tax structure? We talked about that before. Is any of that beginning to come through? And maybe at all, it's -- you can't tell yet with the work you're doing on the spins and the separation of legal entities, but just what your line of sight on the simplification of your tax structure and some cost savings that might fall through.
Greg Lewis:
Yes, great. That's a great question. We are working through that real time, as you can imagine. And as you alluded to, the spins do play a role in creating some of that clarity. So that as we get closer to the spins, we'll have a better view on exactly what those impacts will be. But we are working on exactly that as we speak. And as alluded to in the outlook, I think in the second half of the year, as that does become much clearer, we'll be able to give you some more specifics about what that impact will be. But for certain, we will have a more simplified structure as we go forward and adapt to the new tax legislation.
Operator:
The next question will come from Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question. We're getting a lot of questions from investors on potential for global slowdown, and I'm just trying to reconcile this with accelerated organic growth and Honeywell into second half of '19. Could you just take us around the world and just describe what you're seeing in your key geographies? Are you seeing any slowdown anywhere?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. I mean, I think yes and no. China, for example, last year, our growth was in the 20s. Currently, we see it a little bit more kind of in the teens, but I wouldn't exactly call that a slowdown. I mean, maybe relatively speaking, it's a slowdown. India continues to be double-digit growth. LatAm was strong. Central Europe was strong. When I say strong, all double-digit kind of growth kind of figure. So overall, we're not seeing much of a slowdown. Now you couple all that with our backlog growth, our long-cycle order growth, you couple with some of the past due situations we have in Aerospace, right now, I'm continuing to be bullish overall on the growth. So based on what we're seeing right now, based on the orders, long cycle, short cycle that we're seeing, there's every reason for me to continue to be bullish on our growth. Could that change? Of course, but I'm not seeing it right now.
Andrew Obin:
And just a follow-up on Aerospace. As we're thinking about the defense part of the business, is it just fair just to look at modernization authority growth? Or are there some specific programs that are driving this accelerated growth?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. I mean, it's -- yes, it's really both because, as you know, our defense business in Aerospace is really so widespread. So it's not really tied to any one given program. And whether it's tanks, aircraft, all those will drive the right financial outcomes for us. And it's widespread both in the U.S. and the international arena. So it's -- as the defense budgets grow, so will our business, and we're seeing that.
Andrew Obin:
But that implies, if you look at modernization authority, it should grow like high single digits for a while. So the business should keep up with that?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, by the way, we've also expanded some capacity in Aerospace just to -- especially in the area of industrials and so on. So we've got capacity expansion that's already taking place to keep up with that demand. And frankly, we knew that a lot of the air transport market was going to take off. We've adjusted to that. Now we're trying to pull the supply chain -- kind of the Tier 2, Tier 3 supply chain along with that to make sure that they can keep up, and there's been a lot of energy spent on us working with our supplies to make sure that they're ready for what we believe is the new normal.
Operator:
And our final question will come from Steven Winoker of UBS.
Steven Winoker:
Tom, congratulations for more than just this role. I think it's been, what, 12 years since our days at ACS? It's been a long run.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yes. You're an insider still, Steve.
Steven Winoker:
Yes. Well, never quite leave. Try to. You make me sound like a broken record on these quarters now. And the cash, particularly great to see that traction so quickly all. So I know that's hard. A couple questions here. One around -- nobody I think has gone into some detail on the Q&A on PMT and HPS maybe particularly, some of the dynamics there, obviously, of tough comps in advanced materials. We have oil moving steadily. So can you maybe talk about some of the dynamics and what's the potential for acceleration in HPS and UOP at least?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, HPS performed very, very well in the second quarter. It's up mid-single digit for the first half of the year. It's a business that's been on an absolute tear for a long time now. Our order rates are strong. We're actually even more bullish in the second half of the year. As you know, it now contains the Smart Energy business, which we moved in there, which is also gaining acceleration, and that is part of that management team. So overall, we're very bullish on continued HPS performance. And overall, between HPS and UOP, kind of our "log" looks very strong for the second half, and we expect to convert a lot of that to orders. So overall, I'm very pleased with what we're seeing in PMT.
Steven Winoker:
And by the way, Darius, what is the margin rate impact these days of an implication of HPS growth? Because I know you've moved up so much over the years.
Darius Adamczyk:
Can you say that again, Steve?
Steven Winoker:
So just in terms of HPS impact on -- and PMT segment margin as it's now growing more quickly than the rest of the segments.
Darius Adamczyk:
It is in line with overall PMT margin rates. Maybe a little bit south, but it's -- it isn't accretive or dilutive materially.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. And do you still see margin expansion opportunity in that subsegment?
Darius Adamczyk:
For sure. Yes, absolutely. Especially, I think the team is doing a tremendous job and further driving productivity in Smart Energy. I mean, they -- the HPS team really knows how to drive productivity well. The Smart Energy business, frankly, has an opportunity to do a lot of that. It's a projects business, [indiscernible] business, both areas that are very, very comfortable for HPS. And as you know, in the second half of last year, they had taken the business on and are already seeing progress, and there is much more to come. So they're far from done in terms of margin expansion in HPS.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. It's one of our more mature, I'd say, connected enterprises in terms of that software offering so we absolutely have a nice tailwind there on margins.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. And just lastly on Page 7, that's really helpful in terms of the tariff inflation comment. But we're hearing a lot about pricing from other companies. How much of your offset is a really pricing action playing into this? Or are there really just a lot of other things going on?
Greg Lewis:
Yes. We're doing a mix of both pricing and some sourcing changes as well as we're benefiting from having locked in some purchases earlier in the year. So of our mitigations, I would say it's probably 2/3, 1/3 in terms of pricing versus our sourcing actions. But so far, we've had success passing through where appropriate. And as I discussed, we're -- this thing changes by the day, and this is -- in fact, this is a weekly cadence we have going on across the entire enterprise. So not much grass is growing under our feet as this is changing.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yes. Just to add to that, I think the key here is to get ahead of it early, and I think we definitely have. And then we haven't lost focus. This is literally a weekly activity for us and probably the single most important thing that we talk about in making sure that we're proactive. We're being ahead of here because if you sit and wait, you could see substantial margin contraction. So we're doing a good job managing, but there's still a lot of unknowns here that we don't know that we're planning for.
Greg Lewis:
Yes. I mean, we're benefiting from the fact that we do have a lot of local-for-local business constructs, so that's been helpful to us. And in fact, there's going to be some places where us sourcing from non-China sources are going to be competitively helpful where others are sourcing from China. So it's a complex equation. There's obviously the sourcing challenges, but there are also some places where it could be competitively advantageous to us as well. So we're trying to make a good balance.
Darius Adamczyk:
And just to highlight that point that Greg just made, which is we have a structure, for the most part, not perfectly, but we're kind of regionally hub-oriented. So we have kind of a local-for-local sourcing, engineering, marketing supply chain base. So we're -- I wouldn't tell you we're not impacted, but we're a lot more prepared because of our global footprint and how we operate the business.
Operator:
And this does conclude today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for any additional closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. I have full confidence that the strong performance we delivered for our shareowners in the first and second quarters will continue throughout the rest of the year. Our order rates are strong, our backlogs are growing, and we're realizing the benefits from our continued efforts to drive software and connected growth, productivity, commercial excellence and improve free cash flow. Honeywell is well positioned to continue to deliver, and I hope that is evident in both the second quarter performance and the commitments we made to you today. Before we end, I want to take a minute to thank Tom Szlosek for all his contributions to the company. Tom has gracefully navigated the businesses and the finance organization through some pretty significant changes and challenges over the past four years. It has been a pleasure to have Tom on my staff and at the company for the past 14 years and wish him all the best in the future. Congratulations on a successful career, Tom.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
On behalf of the entire Honeywell team, I wish you a pleasant rest of the summer. Thank you.
Thomas Szlosek:
Great.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - Vice President of Investor Relations Darius Adamczyk - President and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Szlosek - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Stephen Tusa - J.P. Morgan Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co LLC Julian Mitchell - Barclays PLC Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners, LLC Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Scott Davis - Melius Research LLC Peter Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co. Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Steven Winoker - UBS
Operator:
Please stand by, we're about to begin. Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Honeywell's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks, Cathy. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's first quarter 2018 earnings conference call. With me here today are President and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements in this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. For this call, references to earnings per share, free cash flow and effective tax rate exclude impacts from separation cost related to the upcoming spin-off of our Homes and Transportation Systems business along with recent tax legislation. This morning we will review our financial results for the first quarter of 2018, share our guidance for the second quarter, and provide an update to our 2018 outlook. And as always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, let me turn the call over to President and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Honeywell had a very strong start to 2018 with first quarter earnings per share of $1.95, up 14% year-over-year, exceeding the high-end of our guidance range by $0.02. Our earnings this quarter were driven by organic sales growth of 5%. The growth was strong across the portfolio, particularly in Aerospace, SPS, warehouse automation and the PMT process automation businesses. We expect this momentum to continue throughout the year. Our long-cycle orders were up 35% and our long-cycle backlog was up double-digits, with particular strength in Intelligrated, Aerospace and UOP. I will touch on our revised full-year guidance in a minute. Operational performance was also strong as evidenced by the 40 basis points of margin expansion and nearly 30% growth in free cash flow. We benefitted from our continued investments in Commercial Excellence, together with mature productivity and volume leverage. The margin expansion is within our guide and in line with our long-term target of 30 to 50 basis points expansion per year. Free cash flow in the quarter is about $1 billion. The 30% growth follows an exceptionally strong first quarter of 2017, where free cash flow was up more than 500%, so the cash performance is even more noteworthy. And yet, we believe there is even more improvement ahead, driven by our company-wide initiative on cash and working capital. Finally on Q1, we continue to aggressively deploy capital, repurchasing nearly $950 million in Honeywell shares. We are also tracking well with the cash repatriation plan we reviewed at our Investor Day in February, which contemplate more than $4 billion of cash being repatriated in 2018. Today, we are raising our full year 2018 organic sales growth guidance to a new range of 3% to 5%, our EPS guidance to a new range of $7.85 to $8.05, and our free cash flow guidance by $100 million. Compared to prior range, our EPS guidance is now $0.10 higher at the low-end and $0.05 higher at the high-end. These changes reflect both our exceptional first quarter performance and our confidence in our company's ability to continue outperforming for the remainder of 2018. Our end-markets are strong. We are experiencing robust commercial activity. We are executing well. It's evidenced by our margin and cash performance. We have significant balance sheet capacity to deploy. In summary, an exciting start that we expect to be a very strong year. Let's turn to Slide 3 to highlight some of the recent news from our businesses. In Aerospace, we signed three contracts with Singapore Airlines group to provide the latest Honeywell technologies and solutions to help improve operational capabilities for Singapore Airlines, SilkAir and Scoot. The agreements include a variety of services and equipment, including weather radar, navigation systems, auxiliary power units, predictive maintenance technologies, and our 24/7 engineering and maintenance support. Additionally, Singapore Airlines group and Honeywell signed a Memorandum of Understanding to jointly work to implement Honeywell's Connected Aircraft technologies to reduce operational risk, improve efficiency and maximize aircraft performance. As a result of the agreement, the family of airlines will receive better and more predictive maintenance services that will reduce mechanical delays in cancellations. And through connectivity and then analytics flying will be more efficient and cost effective. We are seeing significant demand for our customers for connected aircraft offerings and we continue to lead the industry when it comes to innovation in this area. In Home and Building technologies we launched INNCOM e7 Thermostat for hotels, a new connected building offer. This is the first enterprise-grade environmental control and energy management solution that incorporates Amazon's Alexa voice control for temperature, lighting, drapery, and amenity functions. Honeywell's INNCOM hospitality solutions are used more than 1.5 million guestrooms around the world. In Performance Materials and Technologies, we introduced a cloud-based simulation tool that uses a combination of augmented reality and virtual reality to train plant personnel and critical industrial work activities. With more than 50% of the oil and gas workforce due to retire within the next five years, the Honeywell Connected Plant Skills Insight Immersive Competency tool is designed to bring new industrial workers up to speed quickly by enhancing training and delivering it in new and contemporary ways. An upstream oil and gas customer in Europe is already using this solution to improve the productivity and skill-set of its employees. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, we launched the Dolphin CN80 ultrarugged handheld computer for demanding environments such as distribution center and parcel delivery. The CN80 is the latest device to run our Honeywell's Android-based Mobility Edge platform, which is composed of common software and hardware architecture and a suite of device tools. The scalable architecture allows customers to develop, test and certify an application just once before deploying it to multiple device types across the enterprise, allowing companies to accelerate deployments, optimize device performance, and extend the total product life cycle with the objective of lowering the total cost of ownership. We launch the first Mobility Edge device late last year, the Dolphin CT60 for transportation logistics, and direct store delivery. And we will launch two additional Mobility Edge devices for a variety of markets later this year. There has been significant demand for our Android-based products, and we expect to see the impact of our new launches in our second quarter results. The final highlight is a new environmental commitment we made in China to reduce China-specific greenhouse gas emissions for our facility by 10% per dollar of revenue from 2016 levels by 2022. We've voluntarily implemented more than 100% energy efficiency projects at our sites in China since 2011. Globally, we have reduced Honeywell's greenhouse gas intensity by more than 65% between 2004 and 2017. Our increased - and increase our energy efficiency by 60% in the same timeframe. By 2019, we reduce our global greenhouse gas emissions by an additional 10% per dollar of revenue from our 2013 levels. Since 2010, we have implemented more than 3,600 energy efficiency and water conservation projects. We are proud of our environmental, social and governance track record and are committed to continued excellence in this area. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Tom, who will discuss our results in more detail.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thanks, Darius, good morning. I'm on Slide 4. As Darius mentioned, we had a very strong start to 2018, reported sales up 9%, organic sales up 5% in the quarter. The markets we serve generally are strong, but our continued organic sales growth also reflects our strong market positions and the investments we've made in the sales organization and in new product introductions. The difference between reported and organic sales is primarily the impact of foreign currency translation mainly related to the euro. Segment profit was up 12% in the quarter and segment margin expanded by 40 basis points to 19.2%, primarily due to the benefits from material productivity, Commercial Excellence, volume leverage on higher sales and benefits from previously funded and completed restructuring projects. Earnings per share of $1.95, up 14% exceeding the high-end of our guidance range by $0.02. This excludes spin-related separation cost of about $55 million in the quarter. We'll walk through the details of our EPS performance in a second. Free cash flow in the quarter of $1 billion, was up 30% driven by strong operational performance particularly in HBT, and Safety and Productivity Solutions. As Darius mentioned, we're still in the early stages of our working capital initiatives, but we're encouraged by our progress and by the additional opportunities that are emerging from the enterprise-wide focus we have in this area. We continue to deploy capital and in the quarter we purchased nearly $950 million worth of Honeywell shares, after growth investments and paying a competitive dividend, our preference is to deploy capital to M&A. But in the absence of immediate opportunities, we'll continue to opportunistically repurchase outstanding shares. Q1 certainly presented ample buying opportunities given the pricing level and our general positive outlook on the growth of the company. So overall, we are pleased with the start to the year with robust sales growth and high quality earnings. Slide 5 walks our earnings per share from the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018. The preponderance of our earnings growth $0.21 came from segment profit improvement, driven by enhanced sales growth across the company, the impacts from our Commercial Excellent effort - Commercial Excellence efforts, productivity improvements realized through HOS Gold and savings from previously funded and completed restructuring projects. Below the line items were a $0.03 tailwind this quarter, primarily due to higher pension income reflective of strong performance of the assets in our pension plan and lower discount rate. As a reminder, our U.S. pension plan is approximately 110% funded. And we announced in February that we modified the asset allocation in our funds, shifting our plan assets to comprise about 50% fixed income type investments, up from 20% previously. This change will not affect 2018 pension income. We do expect a reduction to 2019 pension income, but anticipate being able to overcome the impact due to our profit growth prospects. Therefore, this is not expected to be an EPS headwind for 2019. Our effective tax rate in the quarter was 23.6% versus 22.7% in the first quarter of 2017. Our estimated rate for the full year remains in the 22% to 23% range. And most of the tailwinds coming from the tax reform legislation will be in the second half of 2018. In February, I spoke about how the recent U.S. tax reform would impact Honeywell. The $3.8 billion provisional charge we recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017 is still subject to revision throughout the course of 2018, but there was no adjustment to that amount in the first quarter. We still expect to repatriate approximately $7 billion of overseas cash by the end of 2019 with at least $4 billion of that coming in 2018, as Darius said earlier. There continues to be a regular flow of guidance and clarification in this area, which could result in changes the provisional charge, the effective rate and the timing of the repatriation. We'll continue to update you on any material changes that arise. To close out the walk, other items including the lower share count from our share repurchase activity and non-controlling interest were $0.02 benefit versus the first quarter of 2017. Let's turn to Slide 6, as you recall, we change the HBT organization structure to segregate the Homes business from the rest of the portfolio that will remain with Honeywell after the spin-off. Buildings is roughly a $5.3 billion business, so just over half of the HBT portfolio, and includes building products like fire controls, commercial security, and air and water filtration products. Connected Buildings' includes our controls and integrated software for commercial HVAC and building management. Building solutions' includes our integrated hardware, software, installation and service offerings for more complex buildings and structures. Homes is roughly a $4.5 billion business that comprises comfort and care, including our residential thermostats and HVAC controls; safety and security, which includes the residential components of our former security business; and distribution which is the global ADI business. You will see the sales from the Homes and Building businesses, separately presented in our filings beginning this quarter. Let's turn to Slide 7 to discuss our segment results for the quarter. Beginning with Aerospace sales were up 8% on organic basis, led by commercial OE, where growth in both air transport and business aviation was nearly double-digit driven by robust deliveries on key platforms including the A320, Boeing 737 and Bombardier Challenger 350. We are on winning platforms and continue to expand our installed base. We expect the OE growth and installed base to continue as our long cycle backlog in the OE business is up more than 15%. As Tim mentioned in our Investor Day in February, we are beginning to see the business aviation OE market recover. Our winning positions across engines, APUs, and avionics will benefit us in the anticipated upturn. In defense, we achieved close to 20% growth in U.S. defense, driven by higher sensors, and guidance systems and engines demand, and sales of engines and avionics spares into Army and Navy programs. Transportation Systems grew 7% organically driven by demand for light vehicle gas and commercial vehicle turbos, particularly in North America and in China. Organic growth in Commercial Aftermarket of 4% was driven primarily by strong R&O demand and another quarter of double-digit growth for our JetWave satellite communications hardware, partially offset by delayed spare shipments. For the full year, we expect Aftermarket organic sales growth in the low to mid single-digits range. Aerospace sales were up 12% on a reported basis, with the difference between the organic sales growth resulting from foreign exchange fluctuations, which was a 3-point impact, and the adoption of the new revenue recognition accounting standard, which was a 1-point impact. We anticipate that the revenue recognition impact will be immaterial for the full year. Aerospace segment profit was up 12% and segment margin expanded 10 basis points. We continue to see the benefits from the Honeywell initiatives to drive productivity and Commercial Excellence, and we incurred slightly lower customer incentives. But this was largely offset by higher volumes of lower-margin OE shipments, inflation and foreign exchange. It's also noteworthy we expanded margins 90 basis points in the first quarter of 2017, generating significant productivity and repositioning benefits on flat organic sales. We're pleased with the installed base growth in Aerospace, resulting from the pickup in OEM volumes. And expected margin expansion will improve sequentially throughout the year. In Home and Building Technologies, organic sales growth was 2% for the quarter. Homes grew 6%, driven by double-digit growth in residential thermal solutions and robust demand for thermostats in North America. Sales grew across all regions in ADI, driven by Commercial Excellence, new product introductions, and demand in India and in Europe. In the Buildings business, organic sales growth was flat year-over-year. The legacy Building Solutions grew 4%, driven by backlog conversion in the energy vertical and strong demand in high growth regions, but was partially offset in buildings products as a result of lower seasonal demand for air and water products in China. And some temporary supply chain challenges within the buildings products business. HBT segment margins expanded 50 basis points, driven by Commercial Excellence, the benefits from previously funded and completed restructuring and material productivity. In Performance Materials and Technologies, sales were up 3% on an organic basis, driven by growth in Process Solutions and in UOP. Sales in HPS were up 4% organically with solid growth globally in thermal solutions and strong demand for gas and electricity meters in EMEA. Short-cycle demand was also strong in the HPS aftermarket and field instrumentation businesses. UOP sales were up 3%, driven by robust engineering and catalyst growth in both refining and petrochemicals, the latter being driven by new units in China. In Advanced Materials, continued customer adoption of our broad range of Solstice low-global-warming products drove growth. The strong orders growth throughout PMT and the UOP long-cycle backlog growth is fueling our expectations for continued PMT sales growth. PMT segment margin was flat year-over-year. Benefits from previously funded restructuring, productivity net of inflation and commercial excellence were offset by unfavorable mix, the timing of catalyst shipments at the end of the quarter in UOP and in foreign exchange. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, sales were up 6% on an organic basis, primarily driven by double-digit sales growth at Intelligrated for major new systems. Orders growth at Intelligrated this quarter was extraordinary and contributed to the long-cycle backlog improvement I mentioned earlier. SPS also experienced higher volumes in sensing and scanning products with strong demand in India and China. We were encouraged by the orders momentum, stemming from the launch of our first Mobility Edge Android product offering. We expect to see an improvement in mobility sales in subsequent quarters as the remainder of the Mobility Edge products that Darius mentioned earlier are launched. Similar to the fourth quarter, the robust volume growth and ongoing productivity efforts in SPS enabled 130 basis points of segment margin expansion. Before we get into our second quarter and full year outlook I wanted to provide some information on how the recently announced tariffs will affect Honeywell, as well as the proactive actions we're taking to address these items. So I'm on Page 8. Regarding the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, based on what has been enacted as of today, our exposure is relatively minimum, less than $10 million of gross tariff impact. Our direct tier 1 and indirect tier 2 spend in these categories across Honeywell is small, and the imported portion of that spend is even smaller. The more significant impact is the secondary effect from the price inflation on non-imported steel and aluminum. Here, we put in place aggressive mitigation strategies that largely offset any impact to Honeywell. Regarding the China tariffs, this is clearly a fluid situation. We continue to assess our exposure while also actively developing mitigation plans. The proposed tariffs do not take effect until May. And the U.S. and China intend to negotiate in the interim. We suspect this scope of impacted products and tariffs is likely to change. But we'll be prepared either way and update you as we learn more. As Darius mentioned, the impacts of anything that has been enacted as of today, so the Section 232 tariffs, has been considered in our full-year outlook. I'll cover the expectations for the second quarter on Slide 9. We exited the first quarter with strong order rates and backlogs, which we expect would drive strong organic sales growth in the range of 3% to 4%. In the second quarter, segment margins are expected to expand 30 to 50 basis points, driven by increased volumes, Commercial Excellence and productivity net of inflation, leading to earnings per share of $1.97 to $2.03 or growth of 9% to 13%. We expect that our second quarter tax rate will approximate 24% and continue to expect that our full-year tax rate will be between 22% and 23%. Consistent with our previous communications guidance for the second quarter and the full-year excludes cost related to Homes and Transportation Systems' spin-offs as well as adjustments, if any, to last year's provisional charge related to the tax reform legislation. In Aerospace, we expect continued strength in commercial aviation original equipment sales. On the air transport and regional side growth will be driven by demand for the Boeing 737, and A318 and A320. We also expect continued growth in business and general aviation as the oversupply of used aircraft continues to subside, OE new platform certifications are attained and mandates continue to come into effect. Within the aftermarket, we expect strong repair and overhaul demand, driven by flight hour growth in both ATR and business aviation. We anticipate continued double-digit growth in the defense business with robust spares volume, both in the U.S. and internationally, F-35 demand and growth in sensors and guidance products. Within Transportation Systems, we expect similar dynamics as the first quarter that is strong gas turbo demand in China and the U.S., and continued growth in commercial vehicles. In Home and Building Technologies, we anticipate continued growth in homes products, driven by strong demand for thermostats and residential thermal solutions, and continued strength in ADI globally as a result of Commercial Excellence and High Growth Region efforts in that business. On the building side of the business, strong orders exiting the first quarter point to robust demand for building products, particularly commercial fire products. And we expect continued momentum in Building Solutions. In Performance Materials and Technologies the second quarter dynamics are expected to be similar to those of the first quarter. In UOP, we expect growth across all businesses, including strength in licensing and equipment, catalyst demand driven by new units and reloads in China and gas processing and hydrogen backlog conversion. Exiting the first quarter, our order rates were up double-digit for smart energy and thermal solutions and Process Solutions, which will drive continued demand for those products in the second quarter. In Advanced Materials, we expect continued customer adoption of our Solstice low-global-warming products for applications like supermarket refrigeration, aerosols and foam insulation in addition to ongoing momentum in Solstice mobile air-conditioning. Second quarter margin performance in PMT will be driven by similar forces as the first quarter with benefits from productivity, increased volumes and Commercial Excellence, partially offset by the mix of higher equipment and engineering growth, sales of lower margin catalyst and higher installation services revenue within the gas processing business. Our PMT installed base is large and continues to grow. UOP backlog is up more than 15%, putting us in a really great position, which will drive strong future profitable growth as these projects enter into our serviceable installed base. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, we anticipate continued double-digit growth in Intelligrated building off strong orders and long-cycle backlog from the first quarter. Safety will also be strong, significant demand for gas detection and high-risk safety products. Within the productivity business, we expect continued demand for legacy sensing products building on strong first quarter orders growth in that business. Additionally, our new Android-based product launches are starting to drive growth. I'll move to Slide 10 to cover our revised full-year guidance. We've updated our full year sales, earnings per share and free cash flow guidance to reflect our stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter as well as our confidence in the outlook for the remainder of 2018. Our revised guidance incorporates the impacts of enacted new U.S. tariffs for steel and aluminum. As I discussed previously, we expect to fully mitigate the effect of the steel and aluminum tariffs in each business unit. We are also working through plans to address the impact, if any, from other potential tariffs that have been announced, but not enacted. Full-year organic sales are now expected to be up 3% to 5%. This is driven by favorable conditions in our end markets, our emphasis on organic growth initiatives like Commercial Excellence and continued penetration in High Growth Regions, along with robust long-cycle orders and backlogs. On a segment level, we now expect Aerospace organic sales to be up 3% to 5% versus a previous range of 1% to 3% driven by an improved commercial OE outlook, particularly in business aviation, and strong demand within our U.S. defense business. The organic growth rate and margin outlooks for all other segments are unchanged. We have updated the reported figures to reflect the anticipated continued tailwind from foreign currency translation. Our segment margin estimates for the full year remain unchanged. We raised the low-end of our free cash flow guidance by $100 million and continue to target free cash flow growth of more than 20%, driven by higher net income, lower CapEx and better working capital performance in all of our businesses. Our estimated full-year effective tax rate continues to be between 22% and 23% and our guidance is planned at the higher end of that range. As Darius mentioned, we also raised our full year EPS guidance by $0.10 on the low-end and $0.05 on the high-end. The new range of $7.85 to $8.05 represents earnings growth of 10% to 13%. Our guidance reflects a revised weighted average share count of 758 million shares, which is down approximately 2% from 2017 and does not reflect additional share repurchases that might occur over the remaining course of 2018. Let me wrap up on Slide 11. The first quarter was an outstanding start to 2018, 5% organic sales growth, 14% earnings growth, 30% free cash flow growth, and impactful Connected Product launches across the portfolio. We expect the momentum to continue. We've got strong order rates and a growing backlog as we begin the second quarter. Our second quarter EPS guide of $1.97 to $2.03 reflects that momentum. We raised our full-year guidance to reflect our performance and the positive macro environment in many of our end markets and continue to be well-positioned for outperformance in 2018. The preparation for our two spinoffs - Homes and Transportation Systems - continues. And we're on track for their timely completion. So with that, Mark, let's move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks, Tom. Darius and Tom are now available to answer your questions. So, Cathy, if you could, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Certainly, thank you. The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question will come from Steve Tusa of J.P. Morgan.
Stephen Tusa:
Hi, guys, good morning.
Thomas Szlosek:
Good morning.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Steve.
Stephen Tusa:
Can you just walk through the - kind of as you look at the second half, some of the puts and takes in some of the businesses that will either accelerate or decelerate? I mean, I think this quarter was obviously good organic growth. It was a little bit bifurcated with some doing well and some more in the low single digits. Maybe if you could talk about some of the sub-segments that move around in the back-half of the year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Sure, I can start and then turn it over to Tom. I mean, I think, overall, kind of the summary note is we're pretty - we're fairly bullish on all the segments. Obviously, aero started off with the year very, very strong from top line growth rate. We anticipate that mix to change a bit more between OE and aftermarket. So that might temper the growth rate at the top level, but nevertheless, should improve margin performance. In terms of PMT, we see acceleration clearly in the second half of the year, particularly in HPS and UOP, especially given the kind of order rates that we've seen and also a much more favorable mix going forward. HBT, a very solid quarter, we expect that one to kind of remain steady for the year. We don't see sort of any major changes versus the kind of run rates we've seen. And in SPS, I think that one, the growth rates there we anticipate to be similar, if not, higher going forward, certainly even more upsides from Intelligrated, further recovery from the productivity products business and safety, so overall, kind of flat to down. So, that's sort of at a higher level. Tom, if you want to just…
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah, no, I mean, the only thing I'd add is - and it's a good summary - the strong performance in the first quarter across the board. I think Aerospace in particular was the one that gave us more lift than we anticipated. And that's the reason we're principally raising the guide for sales growth for the rest of the year. The other three businesses, their growth guidance is the same. And then margin guidance for each of the business, relatively similar to what we had guided previously.
Stephen Tusa:
And in aero, is - the commercial aero OE drivers, is that– was that large commercial? Or was that beginning to see some of the bizjet pickup?
Darius Adamczyk:
It's both. We got close to double-digit in both of the segments.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. And then one last one, Darius, acquisition pipeline, any change in your view there? There was some buzz about perhaps a big catalyst deal. How do you view the catalyst space? It's not obviously a software-related asset. But is it something that, obviously, you guys continue to find attractive? Or is it - would you rather focus your acquisition dollars on more software-specific assets, Connected assets?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I would say the pipeline continues to be robust. I wouldn't believe everything you read, Steve. But I think overall as we look at our UOP business, that's one of our - that's one of the best businesses we have in the portfolio. And anything we can do to complement and augment it, it's probably something that would certainly deserve a look. But, overall, I mean, I think you saw we deployed capital in Q1. I thought the stock was a steal at 165 bucks a share. In the low $140s it becomes an absolute no-brainer. So we did deploy capital a bit more aggressively in Q1 than we anticipated, given the opportunistic market that presented itself. But I will tell you that we're very aggressively looking at potential M&A. And we expect something to happen here, hopefully, in the next quarter or two.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. Great, thanks a lot.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Gautam Khanna of Cowen & Company.
Gautam Khanna:
Yes, thank you, guys. Just to follow up on the last question, I was hoping you could expand upon what types of maybe acquisition sizes you're seeing out there. What would be a reasonable expectation this year in terms of how much capital you may deploy for acquisitions? I know it's hard to tell. But any more color on the pipeline…
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, I think there are so many factors involved here that it's to say this kind of size and this kind of size. It all depends what the opportunities are. I think I've stated before and I'll stay consistent, that our preference is for bolt-on acquisitions, so roughly in that $3 billion or less ZIP code purchase price. That's sort of a rough figure. But that's kind of what I'd expect. And based on the pipeline and based on what we see in there. I'm still fairly confident of that figure. So that's kind of my expectations. I don't anticipate any sort of mega-deals out there. I don't see that happening, so kind of expect something $3 billion or less in that kind of a range.
Gautam Khanna:
And one follow-up, Darius, in the past you've talked about how portfolio-review is going to be kind of an iterative process. You obviously have the spins. I'm just curious. I mean, are there other things in the portfolio that, as you learn more about, maybe don't fit? Or I'm just curious how evolutionary is this process. Or do you basically have what you need and it's…
Darius Adamczyk:
Oh, no, no, it's definitely haven't - no, it's going to - we look at that a couple of times a year, at least a couple of times a year, if not, more. So we're continuously looking at the deep-dive of our portfolio. Our internal strategic planning period is in July. So, as you can imagine, it's going to be another full review and we do that two, three times a year. So as I mentioned last year, the portfolio is always going to be evolving. We're always going to be making it better and kind of adding to the top, subtracting from the bottom businesses that we don't classify as Honeywell businesses that may be fantastic businesses in their own right, but frankly, don't fit the Honeywell portfolio. So I expect that kind of a top-grading process and a bit what is a Honeywell business to continue. By the way, not that there's anything imminent, but you should expect us to continue to review our portfolio.
Gautam Khanna:
Thank you, guys. I appreciate it.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Gautam.
Operator:
We will now move to Julian Mitchell of Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you very much. My first question really around the segment margin guide, so Q1 was up about 40 bps. I think the top-end of the second quarter margin guide is up 50. And you've got the full-year at the top-end up around 60. So I guess aviation or Aerospace, I can understand, you've got the mix headwind maybe abating as you go through the year in terms of OE versus aftermarket. But I just wondered, if there was anything else you would call out either within Aerospace or other segments, like inflation or currency impacts on margin that you think will reverse.
Thomas Szlosek:
No, I don't think there's any major changes from what we've talked about in the original guide. I mean, we are seeing a little bit more inflation, but I think we are able to offset that through our productivity initiatives. And mix-wise, it's - it isn't really much of a different dynamic except, as I said, for Aerospace, we've got a bit heavier on the OE side. And within the defense business we've got a different mix on platforms. But other than that, we're pretty much in line with what we had guided.
Julian Mitchell:
Understood. And the cadence on productivity savings and so on is fairly smooth through the year?
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah, pretty much.
Darius Adamczyk:
It is. I think, I would - the other thing I would just point out, Julian, is that this kind of a revenue beat, we still came in right dead-center of our range on margin expansion. That's not that easy to do, right? When you beat revenue, generally, there's - you take some hit in terms of margin expansion. And we did both. We beat revenue and stayed very much bull's eye on exactly what we say we were going to do on margin expansion. So I think that, that's a good set of facts.
Julian Mitchell:
Understood. And then my follow-up would just be around process. I think you called out a good short-cycle demand, areas like instrumentation and aftermarket activity. Just wondered what you're seeing on the large project side within Process Solutions in terms of orders and quoting activity of customers.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, we're actually bullish on the second half, especially as we look at our order pipeline and some of the mega deals that we haven't seen in a while. It's actually the order pipeline looks very robust. And we actually expect then improvement in terms of some of the potential larger deals in the second half of this year. So we remain - we very much remain bullish on the process business with continued growth. And we anticipate securing some of those larger mega deals in the second half of this year.
Julian Mitchell:
Great.
Thomas Szlosek:
The other thing I'd mention, Julian, is the - when you look at process, you see the impact of the growth in the installed base, because the service bank continues to grow nicely for us. And it's pushing double digits in terms of the backlog of service bank. So we're really encouraged by continued investments in projects that build out that installed base and give us that momentum going forward.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you very much.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Julian.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everybody.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey, Jeff.
Thomas Szlosek:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Just a couple things on my mind. First, just on the cost and on the tariff situation, was there a particular reason you called out UOP as at risk to Chinese retaliation? Why that and not possibly other areas of Honeywell in China?
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah, I mean, when you look at the - well, first of all, I mean, aluminum and steel, I mean, we're not a heavy metal company. It's - we're not - I mean, we're technology, so not a lot of steel and aluminum. But when you look at the tariffs that are country-specific, those don't tend to distinguish between commodities. And in our case, there was a fair amount of activity in UOP around catalyst technology and equipment that flows between the two countries. And that's one we're watching closely. We've got some fairly good contingency plans that we are developing and are in place. So we're not counting on this just evaporating and going away; some involve changes to the supply chain; some involve acceleration; some involve working with our customers on different outcomes. But rest assured that Rajeev and Rebecca, Darius are all very much focused on how to deal with the impacts.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. And I think the other thing, Jeff, just to point out is that a lot of this stuff has not actually been enacted yet. But nevertheless, we want to make sure we're prepared through a combination of shifting of the supply chains, alternative supply chains, value capture, all those elements. So we want to make sure that we're prepared and also offering comment to a lot of the proposed tariffs. So we're kind of working this one on many, many fronts to make sure that we don't get caught flat-footed.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then just a couple other quick ones. Just on cash flow, Tom, I think you said you're driving towards 20%-plus. Obviously, your range is, I think, 7% to 20%. So it sounds like you've got some confidence or visibility in that. What needs to happen to get to the upper end of the cash flow range?
Thomas Szlosek:
I think we need to do more of what we did in the first quarter. Actually, what was really nice about the first quarter was that our working capital was about - when you look at our statement of cash flows, you'll see the amounts we put into working capital were identical year-over-year, despite the significant growth that we had on the top line, so we're managing that well. And I think, if we can continue to do that, we'll be in good shape. The other thing that, of course, is helping us is, we've moderated our CapEx spend. I think our CapEx spend in the quarter was down probably $30 million or so year-over-year. So between those two factors and the good volume, I think we are on that trajectory that you referred to.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then just quickly I understand all the mix effects going on in aero. But I was little surprised you said you see aftermarket only growing low to mid singles this year. The RPMs and other data would suggest it should be better than that. Is there anything unusual going on there for you? And I'll pass the floor. Thanks.
Thomas Szlosek:
No, Jeff, I don't think so. I mean, for us, there certainly is a fair amount of new installed base getting built out. And you have some of the older models that would drive good service bank and good service business coming out of service actually, so - and while the new installed base is under warranty, you tend to see a little bit lower revenues on the service side. But overall, both on spares and R&O, the demand is pretty healthy. And hopefully, we'll continue to drive an accelerated growth over the 4% that we had in the first quarter.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, one other maybe fact to point out, Jeff, is that we're also driving much more service contracts rather than break-fix events. And then, we just feel that, that's the right way to operate with our customers. So we probably will have a little bit less cyclicality than some of the others, because we want to drive a much more consistent revenue stream rather than kind of a break-and-fix approach. And I think it's one that we've done in a lot of our other businesses, which really aligns our objectives, which is greater durability, better reliability that goes with the customer rather than the opposite, so that's also a factor here. And Tim and his team are driving a lot of service contracts, both around the Connected Aircraft as well as the service agreements.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey, good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Darius or Tom, aero service, you just mentioned, obviously a little slower. But Aerospace organic growth has been accelerating every quarter for over a year now as you know. And business jets and U.S. defense spending both might get further accelerated. So what really holding you back from recording mid to even high single-digit organic growth for the year? Is it just more difficult second half comparisons and maybe still a little conservatism in your forecast?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I mean, I think obviously we did bump it up this quarter. Overall, we bumped up the guide on the revenue for the year after one quarter. And we're going to see how it goes. Provided we continue to see these kinds of booking rates, these kinds of growth rates, there may be further opportunities in the second half of the year. It's one quarter in. And although, I'm extraordinarily optimistic both on the Aerospace prospects as well as the broader Honeywell, I also have to notice one quarter. So as we continue to see the business progress, potentially there could be more upside in the second half of the year, but we'll see.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Darius, you mentioned long-cycle backlog of the company was up double digits, which is really good to see. It doesn't seem like you've had any recent erosion in your short-cycle business. But maybe could you address that. Have you seen anything in March and April with the sort of increase in rhetoric around protectionism or has it just been steady as it goes for the company here?
Darius Adamczyk:
It's been a bit steady as we go. I mean, March was actually a very, very strong month for us. January was a little bit slower on the short-cycle business. So it's a little bit difficult for me to develop a trend here. And most of the tariff and trade protectionism announcements have been March and April. So impact, if any, is not yet to be felt. April seems to be pretty reasonable based on what we see so far. So we're not seeing major impact yet. But I also think it's really important, as I pointed out, Jeff, that we're prepared and we take appropriate actions to mitigate any potential enactment of the tariffs, so, so far so good. But we don't know what we don't know. And, clearly, the geopolitical environment today is different than it was three months ago. And, we probably - we don't know more today than three months ago.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And as of now, China is quite resilient, right, growth high-single-digits, low-double-digits, something like that.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, no, China growth over in Q1 was north of 20%. So I was actually a little bit more worried about China for this year. But based on Q1, and that's coupled in Q1 with not a particularly great air and water quarter. And even despite all those challenges in that business, we still grew more than 20%. So that gives you an idea of the kind of positions that we enjoy in China and certainly the kind of growth that we continue to experience.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thanks, Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. Thank you.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we will now go to Scott Davis of Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey, good morning, Scott.
Scott Davis:
You just talked about China. But can we walk around the rest of the world a little bit more on both the current quarter and what your outlook is?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, sure, Scott. So I think, in general, our overall High Growth Regions was high-single-digit, so right about where we were planning. I would tell you, China was a highlight growing north of 20%. India was a little bit slower, I think mid-single-digit. That was a bit of a surprise. But we expect that to recover in the rest of the year. Middle East, we're seeing some uptick in activity, think about mid-single-digit there as well. In terms of probably some of our challenges, and it continues to be a little bit of a challenge, is Latin America namely Brazil, that we don't see much of a recovery, the election later this year and hopefully continue to see some stability. But I would say that's a challenge. Solid growth both in North America and Europe, so that good level of growth continues there. And overall, fairly steady and consistent growth profile with the exception of Brazil, which continues to be a challenge.
Thomas Szlosek:
And just on India, Darius mentioned it was little disappointing. But three of the four businesses were actually double-digits. PMT had some timing on some projects that we'll push out into the second quarter, third quarter, fourth quarter. So I think I would expect that India overall composite growth number to improve sequentially over the course of the rest of the year.
Scott Davis:
Okay, helpful. And just back to - there has been two questions now on M&A. And I just - I wanted to just dig into one thing. I mean, when you think about the Analyst Day, there was a lot of - I think, Darius, as you took over big focus on Connected products. And when we hear the rumors out there, potential deals and such, how important is doing - or building a portfolio from here that has that thematically and some component at least of IoT?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, I think it's important. But if you really take a look at the criteria of what's Honeywell business and what I look for, nowhere does it say it has to be Connected, it has to have an IoT component. That's actually not one of the criteria. But the only thing I do say is that I like less cyclical rather than more cyclical. But I don't think that, that's a requirement. Obviously, it's something that we would clearly look at. But if we take a look at businesses that are less susceptible to disruption, where we see good growth vectors, which are well aligned to mega trends, tougher to disrupt, steady growing rather than highly cyclical, they don't necessarily have to be IIoT-related for us to have an interest. So clearly, those have an interest, but so do technology businesses that don't necessarily have an IIoT orientation.
Scott Davis:
Okay. Good clarification. Thanks, guys. Good luck.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thanks, Scott.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
And we now have our question from Peter Arment of Baird.
Peter Arment:
Thanks. Good morning, Darius and Tom.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Peter.
Peter Arment:
Tom, hey, a quick one on just bizjet activity, because it's been a while before we've seen this kind of, I guess, more upbeat around the bizjets. And I know you've got some new launches this year. So I would expect the OE to be up. But what are you seeing on just the kind of the aftermarket side. And is this really, I think, a new upturn that we're finally seeing?
Thomas Szlosek:
Well, on the OE - you mean on the OE side, Peter? Or the…
Peter Arment:
Yeah, on the OE. But I mean, also just what you're seeing also on the aftermarket.
Thomas Szlosek:
No, I think the - I mean, you can read all the stuff that we read about the used jet inventory and the prices and so forth. That clearly is a favorable factor for us. But, I think the biggest thing is the new launches that are coming out. And we've talked a lot about in the last couple of years about our winning positions on the various platforms. And whether it's Cessna, Gulfstream and so forth, they've got all - they've got certifications coming out in 2018. And that's going to be a nice factor for us. The other thing is the mandates. You continue to see some of these mandates coming into effect up and through 2020, 2021. I mean, that's going to drive our growth as well. So as I said, we - for the first quarter, we approached double-digit growth in the OE on both ATR and BGA. And knock on wood, we're encouraged by the momentum.
Peter Arment:
Okay. And just a clarification, on your air transport aftermarket number, you're up 4% in the quarter. But is this - I mean, you had some very strong numbers last year. Is this more, I think, a normalization or tougher comps when we think about 2018?
Thomas Szlosek:
I think, it's kind of what I was saying earlier. I mean, overall the level of activity has been robust. You are seeing a different mix in the installed base of newer aircraft that are under warranty, have less maintenance. You see older aircraft coming out. But beyond that, the level of both repair and overhaul activity on spares has been solid.
Peter Arment:
Okay, great. Thanks.
Thomas Szlosek:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now move next to Joseph Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Thomas Szlosek:
Good morning, Joe.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning, Joe.
Joseph Ritchie:
Tom, if I heard you correctly, you mentioned the impact from tax reform is likely to be felt a little bit more in the second half of the year. And so, like, look the organic growth rate has been great in the last few quarters. Maybe talk a little bit about how customer conversations are evolving in the parts of your portfolio that you would expect to benefit the most if you do start to see an increase in CapEx investing as the year progresses.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah, I mean, I would point to our long-cycle businesses, I think. I mean, we just got done talking about business jet. That could be a factor that's contributing to the - that OE momentum that I referenced. I think on the oil and gas side, I mean, I think, it's more to do with stability on the pricing and the confidence that it's giving the industry, where you're going to see more CapEx will return to - not return to previous peak levels, but certainly an improvement from the declines we've seen in the last couple of years. Those are the - I think, two places that I would say we see it the most.
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay. And then maybe following on, on Peter's question for just a second. I didn't hear you guys mention anything on the commercial helo market. I'd be curious to hear any commentary there, just given this uptick we've seen in oil and gas recently.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, I think, commercial helo is probably not a highlight yet. We don't see sort of major robust level of activity there yet. But I think we're more than enthused based on what we're seeing on the - our air transport and now uptick in activity in business jets. So I guess, there always has to be one little bit of a lowlight. And I would say there's not as strong a recovery as we would have hoped on commercial helo. But nevertheless, the rest of the Aerospace business is very strong, so.
Thomas Szlosek:
And it's not that it's negative. I mean, internationally as an example, we are seeing very modest growth on the helo side. But it's not what we were experiencing a year ago or two years ago in terms of the pressures.
Joseph Ritchie:
Got it. And then, maybe if I can stick in one last one. On PMT, the margin trajectory, so it sounds like the first half of the year you're kind of calling for kind of flattish-type margins in PMT. As we progress through the year, mix gets a little bit better. Is that - you already have a lot of that mix in your backlog today? Or do you need to see something out of order in order to see kind of like the margin improvement in the second half?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, I mean, Joe, as you know, PMT is a tough business to judge based on one quarter, because as you know the catalyst makeup and what we ship, and the mix particularly when UOP can dramatically change the results. So both based on the backlogs that we see, based on the short-cycle activity and HPS and so on. When we get to the end of the year, we're very comfortable that the margin expansion is going to look very much in line with what we're projecting and continue to be very, very bullish on the PMT business.
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay, sounds good. Thanks, guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks, Joe.
Thomas Szlosek:
Okay, Joe.
Operator:
And we have time for one last question. And that will come from Steven Winoker of UBS.
Steven Winoker:
Hey, thanks for fitting me in guys. I appreciate it.
Darius Adamczyk:
Hey, Steve.
Steven Winoker:
Hey, Darius. I can't help but go back to one of your first comments, which was the fact that the stock is a no-brainer in the $140. You did spend $950 million on the share-repo this quarter. That's a good number. But if you're only looking for these acquisitions in the $3 billion or less range, you got cash continuing to come in, why not step in even more aggressively? Or how are you kind of thinking about that? Is it just to keep the powder dry and be more methodical? Or are you really try to be more opportunistic, in which case it might be larger?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, well, I think obviously this is - what we bought back in Q1 is higher than what we normally do. If you look back about our buyback trends, this level of buyback in Q1 is actually relatively aggressive, because I just - like I said, I thought it was a steal at $165. In the $140s, it just - it was - it's absolutely compelling. Now, having said that, you're right, I mean, I do want to keep the powder dry. We indicated both at our Investor Day and our Q1 - or our Q4 call that we have a slight preference for M&A. So as we kind of see the year evolve, we'll see how things change. As I mentioned prior - in the call, we do have a fairly robust M&A pipeline. I do hope that one or two deals materialize here in the next quarter or two. And we'll see how it goes. So it's - I know kind of deploying everything all at once and without having further optionality I don't think is ever a great idea. So that's kind of how we're thinking about it. But I think the value of the stock currently is compelling at the same time. So it's the constant tradeoff that we go through.
Steven Winoker:
And one other one on aero, which is there's a lot still being discussed about the large air framers partnering for success, et cetera, and kind of continuing to apply pressure in thinking about how to change the business models in the industry. Are you seeing any other kind of early developments on that front? Are you - what gives you confidence, conviction, that your business model will be able to sustain itself, in light of that attempted vertical integration?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, I mean - I think both - well, couple of things. Number one is our relationship with Boeing remain strong and we expect that to continue. Number two, I think as you look at our services that I referred to earlier as you think about the value story around the Connected Aircraft, that's compelling to our end-customers. And that's reflected into service rates, the order rates that we're seeing, the interest. I talked about the deal with Singapore and you think about Singapore is clearly one of the market leaders in terms of their thinking and their approach to aviation. So I remain very, very bullish on our approach. And given the kind of set of offerings that we have in the Aerospace segment, both in mechanical and avionics, we are uniquely positioned to be a key player in the Connected Aircraft. And that's being reflected in the kind of relationships we're able to formulate and the business we're enjoying. And I think it's only going to accelerate.
Thomas Szlosek:
I think the technology…
Steven Winoker:
Okay, great.
Thomas Szlosek:
I was going to say, the technologies that we have invested in the - number of engineers that we have supporting all of the different product platforms and the verticals that we serve, puts us in a very unique position in terms of developing offerings that get us on platforms, as you've seen over the last few years, for us to continue to win more than our fair share. So it's those investments and keeping those fresh and alive are what is going to enable us to compete robustly.
Steven Winoker:
Okay, great. Talk to you soon. Thanks a lot. Bye.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
And with that, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for any additional closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
We delivered exceptional results in the first quarter of 2018 and have strong order rates and a growing backlog as we begin the second quarter. I am confident in our ability to deliver outstanding results for our customers, our share owners and our employees. One last note, in a few weeks, we will be hosting an Investor Showcase to highlight our Safety and Productivity Solutions business, particularly our technologies for the Connected Warehouse and Connected Supply Chain. John Waldron and his team are looking forward to showing you why we're so excited about the growth opportunities in that business. Enjoy the rest of your day and we'll talk with you soon. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - VP, IR Darius Adamczyk - President and CEO Thomas Szlosek - SVP and CFO
Analysts:
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research John Inch - Deutsche Bank Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Steven Winoker - UBS Andrew Kaplowitz - Citi Scott Davis - Melius Research Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Company Peter Arment - Baird Andrew Obin - Bank of America
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to Honeywell's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. And I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks, Eric. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's fourth quarter 2017 earnings conference call. With me here today are President and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Szlosek. As a reminder, this call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements in this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2017, share our guidance for the first quarter of 2018, and discuss how the recent US Tax Reform impacts Honeywell. As always, we will leave time for your questions at the end. So, with that, let me turn the call over to President and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark. And good morning, everyone. Honeywell delivered an exceptionally strong fourth quarter with earnings per share of $1.85, enabled by organic sales growth of 6% which reflects a renewed emphasis on the commercial excellence, revitalization of the velocity product development process and the benefits from growth investments. In 2017, we expanded our sales force in key regions and businesses and on all our sales teams the newest digital tools that are helping us win in the marketplace. We also revitalized our new product development process to ensure that the products we’re selling are delivering value to our customers. Our order rates continue to grow and our backlogs are strong as we head into 2018. Cash was a highlight as we generated 4.9 billion of free cash flow in 2017, above the high end of the guidance range. In Q4, we achieved 123% conversion which brought full year conversion to 90% or 109% excluding the effect of pension. Our efforts to improve working capital discipline are working. While I am encouraged by our progress in this area, there is still significant opportunity, in each of our businesses taking the necessary steps to improve our working capital performance. Full year earnings per share were $7.11, up 10% year-over-year. This growth excludes the impact of separations cost for spin and charges for the fourth quarter 2016 debt refinancing, pension mark-to-market and Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Our EPS exceeded the guidance we provided in December driven by 4% organic growth and 70 basis points of margin expansion. We also continued to aggressively deploy capital for our shareowners in 2017. We increased our dividend by 12% this year which marked the 8th double-digit increase since 2010. And we bought back $1.6 billion of shares in the fourth quarter and $2.9 billion for the full year. As a company, our total shareowner return was 35% far exceeding the S&P 500 CSR of 22%. Today, we are raising our full year 2018 EPS guidance to $7.75 to $8 which reflects a lower expected tax rate as a result of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act. Tom will walk you through the Tax Reform detail later in the call. But I am pleased to announce today that our 2017 performance coupled with the anticipated benefits from this legislation has enabled us to increase our 401(k)-employer match for Honeywell employees in the US. This change represents a sustained long-term commitment to provide enhanced financial security in retirement which we believe is extremely valuable and important to employees. Honeywell remains committed to being an employer of choice. Let’s turn to slide 3 to highlight a few of our recent commercial successes. In Aerospace, United Airlines selected Honeywell avionics for its new fleet of more than 150 Boeing 737 MAX airplanes. The flight deck package will include a first ever installment of Honeywell’s SmartRunway and SmartLanding on a Boeing 737 MAX and will feature Honeywell’s integrated multi-mode receiver and IntuVue Weather Radar System which can enable connected radar out of our connected aircraft offering, allowing Honeywell to download weather hazard data and provide pilots and dispatchers immediate information through the GoDirect weather app. Honeywell solutions work in tandem to greatly improve passenger safety and comfort during takeoff, landing and potentially hazardous weather conditions. We are excited about our continued partnership with United Airlines. In Home and Building Technologies, Honeywell designed a new contemporary and state-of-the-art connected home solution and we signed a long-term agreement with ADT, a leading provider of security and automation solutions in United States and Canada to sell it exclusively through ADT's direct and professional dealer network. The solution includes securities, smoke detection, carbon monoxide detection, innovative long range in battery, operate motion viewers and home automation in core price of ADT's and Honeywell's user experience. We are excited to continue our long-term partnership with ADT providing our customers the most innovative products for their connected home. In performance matures and technologies, Honeywell process solutions leverage connected plan offerings to position Honeywell as a specialized software and industrial partner, ultimately winning three strategic projects with Kuwait Oil Company to enhance crude production in the Southeast Kuwait fields. Honeywell provides software and services to help KOC Visualize and Optimize the production and operations in the field and will supply an integrated control and safety system based on our experienced PKS and safety manager technology for gathering station. This project enhances the capacity and capability of the existing facility in East Kuwait to manage excess water while keeping crude production at the facility's designated capacity. In safety and productivity solutions, we achieved major wins with two global packaged delivery companies to provide more than 100,000 Android based handheld computers that will aid in delivery operations. We're seeing strong adoption of our new Android based offerings and have significant new launches planned for early this year that will drive growth for the productivity products business in the second half of the year. A number of these technologies we have in display in our Annual Investor Conference which will take place on February 28 at Honeywell's Headquarters in Morris Plains, Jersey. And looking forward to talking to you more about our progress there. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Tom, who will discuss our financials.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thanks Darius, good morning. I'm on slide 4. As Darius mentioned we achieved 6% organic sales growth this quarter tapping off a very strong year. Our growth improved sequentially every quarter in 2017 starting with 2% in the first quarter. This is a reflection of the investments we've made in the sales organization, the M&A that we've done, our capacity expansions and new product development coupled with an improved economic environment in many of our end markets. We generated more than $2 billion in segment profit in the fourth quarter through our continued focus on effective selling and operational excellence. We've experienced strong volumes primarily in aerospace and safety and productivity solutions. Our margin rate increased by 30 basis points and 19.3% stronger than we previewed in December primarily due to stronger than anticipated demand in the air transport and regional aftermarket. Earnings per share was a penny better than our preview in December includes a $0.19 contribution from segment profit. Our tax planning actions drove a lower than planned tax rate for the fourth quarter of 16.5%. Now this is before the impact of the tax cuts and Job Act. The lower tax rate and lower share count driven by the share repurchase activity Darius mentioned, combined for $0.22 benefit, which was more than offset by restructuring and other progress reported in the quarter, which was a $0.30 headwind. We funded $150 million attractive restructuring projects disclosed that will improve our cost structure, drive further productivity and address the potential residual cost that would otherwise results in the upcoming spin transaction. On a reported basis, we had a loss per share of $3.18 driven by the impact of the 3.8 billion TCJA charge. That reported loss also includes an 87 million pre-tax pension mark-to-market adjustment from really related to discount rate and 16 million in pre-tax spin related separation costs. Our free cash flow in the fourth quarter was very strong at 1.8 billion or 123% conversion or in the early stages of our working capital initiatives, but we’re encouraged by the progress so far and more importantly by the opportunities that we intend to pursue in 2018. Overall, another strong performance with high quality earnings to cap off a great year. Let’s turn to slide 5 to discuss our segment results for the fourth quarter. Starting with aerospace sales were up 5% organically, 2 percentage points above the high-end of our sales guidance. In commercial OE, we saw improved air transport deliveries on key platforms including the Airbus A320 and A330 and Boeing 737 and the benefit of lower OEM customer incentives, partially offset by slow demand in business jets as expected. Grocery and aftermarket was stronger than anticipated driven primarily by air transport, repair and overhaul activities and sales of spares in business aviation. In defense, we saw continued strength in U.S. core defense driven by spares demand and deliveries on the F-35 and apache platforms. In transformation system we saw robust demand in commercial vehicles across all regions and continued growth in light vehicle gas turbos in China and South Korea. Aerospace margins were up 270 basis points driven primarily by higher volumes, productivity, net of inflation slightly more modest OEM customer incentives and commercial excellence. Aerospace margin performance was well ahead of our expectations. In home and building technologies organic sales growth was 3% for the quarter. As a reminder, we realigned the smart energy business from HPT into the PMT in the fourth quarter. So, the HPT results for this quarter and going forward now excludes smart energy. Organic growth and products of 2% was driven primarily by the commercial fire business and environmental and energy solutions in Europe. There was continued strength in global distribution particularly in the fire vertical. Our businesses in China grew high-single-digits with strengthen all of the HPT businesses. HPT segment margins contracted 40 basis points driven by lower residential security volumes, investments for growth and a different regional mix. In performance materials and technologies, sales are up 9% on an organic basis, driven by growth across UOP, process solutions and advanced materials that’s the entire PMT portfolio. In UOP, there was strong demand for our modular equipment, strong initial catalyst loads in the Middle East and significant growth from natural gas project wins at UOP Russell in Russia and in North America. Growth in the short cycle businesses with an HPS continued to be strong with significant demand for thermal solutions and field instruments. In advance materials, we again achieved double-digit organic sales growth feel primarily by sales this, low global warming refrigerant for mobile air conditioning. PMT segment margins contracted 180 basis points in the quarter primarily driven by the unplanned, plant outage we flagged in November and a different year-over-year mix of sales in UOP. The lower margin performance is also in product due to integration of smart energy, which was not contemplated in our original fourth quarter guidance. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, sales were up 12% on an organic basis exceeding the guidance we provided in October driven by another strong quarter at Intelligrated building on the robust orders and backlog growth throughout 2017. We had a significant increase in retail business sales as our direct selling strategy matured as well as continued strength in China. There was also a robust growth in the safety business as refinery maintenance resumed driving demand for our entire range of safety products and continued strong demand for our legacy sensing controls and workflow solutions, including solutions provided by vocal act and mobilizer. The mobility business remains soft though we secured large orders, several large orders for our new Android based products which Darius mentioned. As a result, strong volumes in SPS, margins expanded 140 basis points also exceeding the high end of our guidance, helped further by the benefits from ongoing productivity efforts and from previously funded repositioning. I'm now on slide 6. I'll be very brief on this slide as we discuss each of these measures previously. What this slide does is it takes us back to the original 2017 guidance in comparison to the final results. For all categories, the final outcome met or exceeded the original guidance. So, the due matches are say in Honeywells and [indiscernible] also not included on the slide are long cycle orders and backlog. Those results were also impressive each growing double digit in 2017. Let's move to slide 7 to discuss the recent U.S. tax reform and its impact on Honeywell's 2018 financials. Honeywell has long been a proponent of corporate tax reform that will enable us to compete more effectively on a global basis and to enjoy efficient and unencumbered movement of our capital. On December 22, as you know, the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed. The legislation significantly revises the U.S. corporate income tax. By lowering corporate income tax rates, implementing the territorial tax system and imposing repatriation tax on deemed repatriated earnings of foreign subsidiaries. The result of the legislation we recorded a $3.8 billion provisional charge in the fourth quarter, comprising of three elements. The first is a mandatory transition tax or deemed repatriation charge on the $20 billion of previously unremitted earnings of our foreign subsidiaries. This non-cash charge was recorded entirely in the fourth quarter of 2017, but as we paid over 8-year period in accordance with the legislation. The second element is also a non-cash charge, it's a deferred tax liability adjustment favorable in this case to reflect the impact of the lower U.S. corporate tax rate on our deferred tax balances. The third element also a non-cash charge is for the implementation of the territorial tax system including holding and local taxes associated with the future repatriation of cash back to the U.S. These taxes will generally be paid as the cash is patriated. This portion of the aggregate charge reflects the tax structures we have in place today as is required by the accounting rules and does not anticipate the benefit we would realize from future tax planning. It's only been a month since the tax reform passed and further guidance continues to flow clarifying the legislation. Our accounting reflects our best estimate using the current information we have available to us and the amount of the provisional charge maybe adjusted over the course of 2018 as things become clear. We will update you on the changes if any to the amount of the charge to our effective tax rate and to other provisions of the tax legislation which are material to Honeywell. At our upcoming Investor Day, we will also update you more completely on the cash repatriation opportunities that we have as well as on our expectations for the use of those repatriation proceeds. Preliminarily we expect that at least $7 billion of the 10 [technical difficulty] held by our foreign subsidiaries can be repatriated in the next two years. And of course, we will continue to generate overseas cash which will add to that pool of potential repatriation. But there is still expansive tax announces and planning to be done to ensure we execute repatriation in the most efficient manner. This new global mobility of our cash allows us to continue investing in our businesses in the US, to pay a competitive dividend, to more aggressively seek out M&A, particularly in the US, and to repurchase our own shares. Our preference is for attractive bolt-on acquisitions in our core markets. But to the extent M&A opportunities do not materialize, we will gradually accelerate share repurchases as we did in 2017. Looking at 2018, as a result of reduction in the US corporate tax rate, our effective tax rate is now expected to be between 22% and 23% versus our normal 25% to 26% historical rate. Given the uncertainty that still remains around the implementation of Tax Reform and the extent of the analysis still to be done, we are conservatively assuming a tax rate of 23%, our guide, which increases our 2018 EPS guidance range by $0.20 to a new range of $7.75 to $8 per share, an increase of 9% to 13% from 2017. So as Darius and I mentioned we’re pleased with the new legislation, particularly in the mobility of capital and global competitiveness it provides to Honeywell and to our shareholders. Let’s discuss our expectations for the first quarter on slide 8. We exited the year with strong order rate and from backlogs that we expect will drive a continued acceleration in organic sales growth every quarter in 2018. Segment margins are expected to expand 30 to 60 basis points driven by volume leverage, commercial excellence and productivity net of inflation, leading to earnings per share of $1.87 to $1.93 or growth of 9% to 13%. This is based on an estimated first quarter tax rate between 22% and 23%. As we previewed in the December outlook call, the guidance for the first quarter and full year exclude costs related to home and Transportation Systems spin-offs and adjustments if any to the fourth quarter provision for the tax legislation. Starting with Aerospace, we expect sales to increase in the low single-digit range organically. Our air transport OE business will be impacted by fewer deliveries on Boeing 777 and a decrease in production rate at certain regional OEMs, partially offset by increased A350 deliveries. On the business aviation side, we expect organic sales to improve as production rates increase across most of our OEM customers, offset by higher OEM customer incentives. In the after-market, we expect to see strong spare sales with airlines across Americas and Asia Pac and demand in maintenance service plant in business aviation. For defense, a very similar story in the recent quarters with growth buoyed by demand in US defense, partially offset by declines in space. In transportation systems, we expect continued light vehicle gas turbo penetration across most of region, particularly in China, North America and Europe as well as continue momentum in the commercial vehicle segment. And the Home and Building Technology sales will be slightly up. We expect continued strength in Global Distribution, the commercial part of business and our businesses in China. We see improving order pipelines in our main products businesses offset by weaker volumes in residential security in the US. In building solutions, growth will modest as the robust high growth region activity is offset by slower activity on large installed and service projects in the Americas region. As we progress through our planning for the spin-offs, we have reorganized home and building technologies to better align with how the segment will operate going forward. So instead of showing you results from products and distribution we will start reporting on results in the two new reorganized business units home and buildings. This will be effective when we release first quarter earnings. Moving to performance materials and technology, sales are expected to be up low to mid-single-digit on an organic basis driven by continued conversion of our strong backlog. Entering 2018, PMT loan cycle backlogs are up 8% from 2017. In process solutions, we also expect continued demand for our short cycle software and service offerings and field and instrumentation products. In UOP, we expect significant catalyst deliveries for new units in China, as well as sustained equipment and engineering growth. [Indiscernible] growth and advanced materials is expected to continue. Although, there are tougher year-over-year comparisons in the first quarter. Finally, in safety and productivity solutions we expect sales in the mid-single-digit range organically driven primarily by large project wins at Intelligrated and strong orders demand exiting the year in sensing and IoT and workflow solutions including for mobilizers cloud service application. In safety, we expect growth across the gas vertical in China and all lines of business in the Americas as a result of our new product launches, sales investments and improved market conditions. We also expect improvement in the retail business. On a regional basis, the SPS China business is expected to grow more than 10% driven by sensing in IoT, safety and productivity products in the region. Let’s turn to slide 9, I want to talk about a revised full year guidance. We’ve updated our full year margin guidance to reflect our stronger than expected performance in 2017. Full year second margin is now expected to be between 19.3% and 19.6%. This reflects 30 to 60 basis points expansion, which is consistent with what we said in December. These segments had been updated accordingly. We’ve also updated our earnings per share guidance as Darius mentioned reflect a lower anticipated full year effective tax rate between 22% and 23% due to the tax legislation. Full year EPS is now expected to be $7.75 to $8, up 9% to 13% year-over-year excluding separation costs to fourth quarter 2017 charge related to the tax reform and any 2018 adjustments for that charge. I am going to wrap up on slide 10. Fourth quarter was an outstanding finish to 2017. We achieved strong sales growth, continued margin expansion double-digit earnings growth and exceptional free cash flow conversion. At the same time, we continued on our aggressive capital deployment with more than a 1.5 billion in share repurchases in the quarter and $2.9 billion for the full year. We also funded more than $350 million in restructuring in 2017, which is helping us to proactively address standard costs ahead of our two-plant spin-off. Those spin-offs remain on track for completion by the end of this year. We’re also pleased with the passage of U.S. tax reform and we raised our 2018 EPS guidance by $0.20 as a result. We believe that the tax reform will provide a sustainable long-term benefit to Honeywell, not a single quick hit. In the same light, we believe that the benefit that we share with our work associate should also be a sustainable long-term benefit, so we’ve chosen an ongoing mechanism, it will benefit and now and in the years to come throughout their retirement. That is an increase for the employee matching contribution in our U.S. 401(k) plan. Our strong order rates and increased backlog heading into 2018 give us confidence in our first quarter guidance. We’re well positioned for continued outperformance in 2018. With that, Mark. Let's move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks, Tom. Darius and Tom are now available for answering your questions. So, Gary if you could please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Absolutely. The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions]. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Just a couple of things. First, I just wondered if you could elaborate a little bit more aero margin it was very strong. Was there any unusual timing and incentives or program close outs or anything like that? First question.
Darius Adamczyk:
I wouldn't say there is anything unusual. We obviously had a very favorable mix as reflected by the commercial aftermarket. And that was probably a little bit even more favorable than we had anticipated. But I wouldn’t say there is any kind of onetime charges other than the impact of a more favorable mix of business than we had originally projected. That's really the function.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah you might be thinking about an incentive comp Jeff. But the 270-basis points expansion most of that was the combination of the volume mix and productivity that we generated. I think the incentives were probably 0.5 of the 270, so small piece of that.
Jeff Sprague:
Okay, great. And then just to trying to kind of wrap up just the cash flow outlook overall. Could you just update us on what you're thinking about CapEx as pension income moved around at all here at year-end? And does the outlook you anticipate any additional share repurchase in 2018 at this point?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, I mean starting with the CapEx, Jeff. I mean we've been peaking in 14 to 16 north of $1.1 billion or so. That will be down in the $900 million range or less in 2018 and will continue to go down. We've got continued emphasis on our working capital, hoping to get another half a point of working capital terms. [Indiscernible] toolset is helping us with that. On pensions, the plan is at the end of the year was funded close to 105%, right now it's funded probably 110% or more. So those assets are driving more income if you can believe that. But from a cash perspective it is non-event with the plants fully funded, there are no contributions for the foreseeable future we think that's in pretty good shape. And we'll continue to drive the conversion. I mean our cash conversion in 2016 was 86%. We told you we're trying to move towards a 100%, we hit 90% in 2017. And we think prospects are good to drive that further in '18.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah. And Jeff it's kind of reflected in the cash guidance for 2018. I think even if you only take this midpoint of our guidance it’s a fairly healthy increase and as we discussed at length last year, we're going to continue to make progress on cash generation and cash conversion. Just like we showed in 2017, we've reached magical 90% level and that’s kind of where we want as a starting point.
Jeff Sprague:
Great. And share repurchase, and I’ll cede the floor. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, and share repurchase Jeff, right now, the plan is to do what we normally do as I said. So, we will be offsetting any dilution that comes up as a result of option exercises and contributions of employee benefit plans. But as I also talked about on the repatriation, there’s an opportunity materializing and the timing is -- needs to be further analyzed. Our priorities overall remain the same and we prefer to prioritize bolt-on acquisitions that can be accretive to our businesses. But like in 2017 when the market was a bit more frothy for us in terms of opportunities we chose to deploy it towards share repurchase we did, a 1.5 billion in the fourth quarter alone, 2.9 billion for the full year. And we were able to take the share count down for the year over 2%. So that’s the kind of approach that we’ll continue to head into the year with.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from John Inch with Deutsche Bank.
John Inch :
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Good morning, guys. So, can we start with the core volumes, so you gave the update on December 13th, Tom you thought core growth will be 7 to 8, it’s 6. But your numbers are solid with great cash flow. And I guess my question is, did something happen at the end of the year like with December normally at the very end, cause the core growth expectations to shift lower kind of by 1.5?
Thomas Szlosek:
No, I mean as you can imagine fourth quarter is a big volume quarter for our businesses. Aerospace in particular, you have a lot of OEM customers and we’re kind of partnering with them to meet their delivery schedules. Those change. And sometimes they -- their deliveries push out which was the case for Aerospace, most of that slight moderation of growth rate was due to Aerospace OEM. But as you saw the growth in aero and Honeywell for the fourth quarter organically was still very strong and we had better mix in Aerospace at the after-market as I said.
John Inch :
Yes, so aero was the primary factor then, that's the message.
Thomas Szlosek:
A little bit in -- look, a little bit in PMT as well, lower margin stuff in PMT. But no trends per say, more binary kinds of things either large transactions in most cases.
John Inch :
The shift from Windows to Android, you guys have called out increasing traction right in terms of orders, how does that dynamic work? Are you still selling the Windows based products, you have to write-down inventory, what’s actually going on here? I am trying to understand how that prospectively impacts the financials probably in your margins I am assuming in 2018 for that segment?
Thomas Szlosek:
Yes, I mean we’re selling both types of products, and as a matter of fact. The majority of the installed based in productivity products is still most of the software is still written in Windows based code. So, we foresee continuing robust sales on the Windows product offering. But as we discussed on multiple calls, last year, Android is becoming a much more prominent part of our portfolio offering. We have launched some new products in Q4. We launched some in Q2. And then we have a pretty big launch coming up here also in Q1. The great news for us as we highlighted in the announcement is we’ve already secured some major wins with these new offerings that are Android based. So, it gives me a lot more confidence around the future of the products business. But rest assured Microsoft page mobility offerings, we’re still selling those fairly aggressively and they still make-up more than 50% of our sales.
John Inch :
And is the customer Darius, right that incurs, if they want to shift from Windows to Android, it's their problem, it's not as if Honeywell is somehow on the hook to pay migration costs or something like that. Right?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. Exactly. They have to convert their software from Microsoft based to Android based. And we’re offering our customers a choice, some of them are making that conversion others are maintaining their current platforms.
John Inch :
And cash was very strong in the fourth quarter despite obviously the business putting up very robust growth. How do you manage the ’18 cash in terms of growth and acceleration in the economy and the demands in working capital, but then trying to get working out of the system? I guess, I understand you want to keep a conservative guide, but do you think there is upside to cash given the backdrop of kind of macro improvement or was do a little bit of anomaly in the fourth quarter given how strong it was?
Darius Adamczyk:
John, I’m going to optimist. So, I always believe there is upside, but I think there is a couple of factors going first. Number first is working capital has been a point of emphasis, we saw, we had our senior leadership meeting shake-up already in January and I can tell you, it was one of the two major, major highlights that we talk about. Number two is Tom talked about the reduction in CapEx and I think it’s important to note we’re not constraining CapEx, it’s just that we have gone through a fairly substantial investment cycle. And we just see that waning a bit, but if we see great projects we’re going to continue to invest. But nevertheless, we anticipate that CapEx never being lower this year and even potentially next year. And then three is just it will be, we’re looking at all these working capital levers and all the businesses have, what I called pretty aggressive targets in terms of working capital. But then also last thing to add is, we’re still assessing a lot of these moving pieces when it comes to the new tax legislation. Particularly as it relates to cash taxes, because as you know, we have kind of 8 years to payback, that one-time fee. So that’s offset somewhat by the reduction. So, we still had some work to do in terms of the overall impact for the year and Tom and and his team have been working through all those details.
John Inch :
Got it. One last one, as inflation Darius, comes back into the U.S. economy, how are you thinking about managing the company in terms of say pricing, the trade-up between pricing and costs that sort of thing?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. That’s a good question, because that can be a very, very dangerous phenomenon. I can tell you that every one of the SPGs and that’s something we already implemented last year, they’re really watching their inflation in the impact on their product costs. And I am very confident in saying that all of our businesses have a very good process to monitor that inflation of products and making sure that they’re passing that through to the marketplace. And frankly, the inflationary environment for our goods, it’s not new, it’s really been in place last year as well, particularly in second half. So, we’ve been watching that one carefully and for the processes in to make sure that we monitor proactively.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
So just to follow up on John's question on cash flow just to be clear. You raised your net income guidance to reflect the tax rate but you are basically not raising the cash number because of the uncertainties around the cash going out the door on the transition. Is that kind of how we should read the lack of guide on raise on free cash?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. I mean our original guide that we gave you in December Steve was under the provides [ph] of the old law. And every year we anticipate some cash benefit from the tax planning that we do. In fact, in 2017 we did realize some benefits there. So, it's not as this we had just taken the -- put off the breaks on tax planning and the cash management around tax planning in that original guide. When you look at 2018, there will be some benefit certainly on the U.S. side from that lower cash tax rate. But it's offset by the payment of the mandatory toll charge. And we need to continue to study the developments in legislation before we step out and say it's going to be a huge impact. I mean the guide range that we gave was fairly wide in any case from 5.2 to 5.9. So, I think we're still comfortable this early point sticking to that range. As you know we had substantial overseas cash and retained earnings. So at least for the next 8 years that is going to be a bit of a cash drag because we got to take that onetime tax hit.
Steve Tusa:
Yeah okay. And just on the EPS guide. A little bit of a higher kind of operating base and you guys clearly beat up [ph] this quarter. I think you tweaked up your margin assumptions yet you are and I think share count is coming out a little bit lower than we expected exiting the year. You're only waiting for the incremental tax benefits. Is there something else that's kind of below the line or anything else we have to be aware of, anything you're concerned about that has slowed down as to why the raise wasn't a flow a little more through there? Or just building a little bit more contingency and hedging in the plan?
Darius Adamczyk:
So, I think not a lot has changed since December. I mean we actually expected a more robust fourth quarter as we said earlier from a top-line perspective. And so overall, the momentum in each of the businesses is strong and we expect that to continue. And maybe there will be some upside on the top-line, but in terms of things that we're -- the large things that we're concerned with we haven't articulated, there is nothing about source here. Most of the assumptions we talked about in December are still intact.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah and Steve just to maybe to add on to it. I mean first of all as you know 60% of our business is short cycle versus longer cycle. And we're in New Year [ph] so it's I think only on the year it's best to be prudent and just really a little bit more on the caution side to really see how the business evolves. But having said that I can tell you that I'm a lot more bullish on the year heading '17 into '18 versus '16 into '17. I think the comps are a little bit tougher. But nevertheless, as I look across the entire business portfolio, I can't think of a single business where I would view as a down arrow versus '17. So overall things look good. But we have to see and see that the business materializes and comes through on the P&L, I think first quarter we will see how things go and after that we’ll back to discuss it with you and see what adjustments we need to make for the year.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. One last one in you March investor meeting, can you just may be described -- not what the targets are going to be, but are you going to give kind of a refreshed longer-term view financially? Just asking about kind of framework and format, how you guys are going to approach that?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean I kind of feel like I did that last year, kind of the low to mid-single-digit, 30 to 50 that kind of range. I think we’ll probably -- just to give you a little bit of a preview, I think you should expect to see something in that similar range going forward. But yes, we will give a refresh on that outlook. And I don’t know if it’s going to be as precise as laying out every year because you’re not going to get out four, five years, I think it’s a little bit more unknown and we go through a recession or something you end up kind of not looking so smart. But I think the kind of framework that provided last year’s margin will be kind of should be your expectation for this year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Steven Winoker with UBS.
Steven Winoker:
Hi, thanks. And good morning, guys. Close enough, right, I’ve been called worse things. So, Darius, may be just talk a little bit about the key messages and the difference for managers, the HS element, the leadership meeting that you just had, I know you mentioned CAD. But just a little more on sort of how you’re kind of trying to steer the ship and give folks priorities as they think about 2018?
Darius Adamczyk:
No, first of all, the key message was that I thank them for a really nice 2017. I think we had a very nice year across the board and I think it was a good time to recognize the kind of outstanding effort that the team contributed. So that was sort of first key message. In terms of priorities for 2018, I’d say two or threefold. Number one, working capital, I talked about that. We want to drive free cash flow. We want to drive free cash flow conversion. I just want to emphasize too that this is sort of where a very healthy and well-funded pension plan is actually hurting us from a cash flow conversion perspective. And I always emphasized that because somehow, it’s forgotten. The second point is software and software not just in our connected enterprise, in our connected -- but really the incorporation of software into anything and everything we do. So, software and the sensors strategy for any and all products that Honeywell launches. And the third one was much more about innovation, making sure that we leverage the latest and greatest technologies are available in the marketplace today, and making sure that those are reflected in our NPD pipelines and so on. And then the last one is that we kind of had a bit of a -- we have different behaviors that we’re trying to incorporate in the company and reemphasize leveraging and exhibiting those behaviors in everything we do. So those were some of the key messages from our senior leadership meeting.
Steven Winoker:
That’s helpful. And then secondly, as you think about the kind of follow-on effects of Tax Reform for your customer base and their decisions about how to spend that money and whether or not that kind of works its way back to your own growth rate and your own decisions even. What -- I am really seeing kind of the mixed messages out there from corporate in terms of what they see in their own customer base kind of considering additional spending that’s just sort of macro related versus maybe tax related and not sort it matters. But maybe a few thoughts on that, it’s potential for acceleration?
Darius Adamczyk:
I think for us undoubtedly, this is a very constructive outcome, I mean we were supportive of tax reform, we’re very pleased with what ended up happening, I think it’s going to be good for U.S. business. For us, certainly see a much greater level bullishness on the part of our customers, which should translate to continued investment. And you’re right, their CapEx is our revenue and we do expect some level of investments to accelerate. Now, I think it’s a little bit early and I think we sometimes forget that the details of this are still becoming clear, it’s only 30 days old and what the implications are for us. I mean for us, we’ve been bullishly investing in the U.S. already. I mean, if you think about our elevated CapEx that’s been in place for the last two to three years, a lot of that investment went into manufacturing jobs, particularly states like Louisiana and others. In addition, we’re aggressively hiring a lot of software engineers, particularly in our Atlanta COE and we’re going to continue to do that. So, we haven’t and we’ll continue invest in the U.S. Now this is longer term as we assess further investments with this, does this make U.S. more appealing place to invest? Absolutely, we think that this makes the U.S. a much more appealing place to invest and as we may contemplate further investment. U.S. will be near the top of the list.
Thomas Szlosek:
Just add a little color on that. When you look at the momentum that we have in the U.S., overall, we closed the year 3% organic growth or so in region. But it was the fourth quarter that was pushing close to double-digit. So, I think there was some anticipation of what was coming possibly and we’ll see how that goes. I mean so far, so good at this early point and in January as we look forward. But it’s hard to make that direct connection between the benefits from the legislation including expensing in the CapEx and our order rates, but we’re looking forward for sure.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz :
We know you have more difficult growth comparison scenario moving forward. But you did 5% growth in 4Q and you averaged over four in the second half of the year. We heard some more positive commentary on business jets, you guys have talked about potential turn for the end of this year and next year. So how do you look at the business at this point is. The 1 to 3, I am sure there is some conservatism for the usual suspects like space and maybe TS. But is the overall environment actually still getting better would you say and ask this?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I think as we discussed, we think the environment is still getting better. But I think what is also important to know is that, we’re coming off a much stronger year ’17 than a weaker year, which is ’16. So all-in-all, we’re still very bullish and I’m very excited about our prospects, more excited than going into ’17. But nevertheless, the baseline is a little bit different in terms of specific for your question on aerospace. Yes, I think the framework there on the business jets is similar to we’ve been saying. We expect some level of acceleration, but more likely in the second half of ’18 not early, particularly some of the new platforms we're launching and deliveries taking place. So that's a cautious optimism reflected in the growth rates for probably more later rather than sooner given the year.
Andrew Kaplowitz :
Appreciate that. And then you mentioned that you're seeing short cycle growth in profit solutions. In December you suggested you really haven't seen any evidence of bigger projects coming back. But you guys say the same thing that we do tax reform and [indiscernible] being very high. Do you have any implication that larger projects could begin to come back, are you seeing any signs of them yet as you sit here today?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. I mean I think overall, our pipelines are very strong. I think you have to remember that our PMT backlog is up 10% on a year-over-year basis. And we had positive orders growth in both UOP and HPS in Q4. But I would tell you also the pipeline and the project pipeline are strong. And I think what's important in terms of the price of oil is sustainability is that we don't like to see is it bouncing around. So, to the extent that it stays at this level is right around is a very healthy environment for investment. So as long as this is sustained I become that much more bullish on our outlook in PMT particularly UOP and HPS.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
I asked this question a couple other corps, I haven't really gotten an answer that seems helpful yet. And I'll throw to you guys, I mean this new Tax Act thing, seems to have somewhat made it simpler to do tax planning globally. That maybe creates an opportunity for you guys unwind some structures that were created in the past that whether it's supply chain related or otherwise. Is there a cost benefit at all from the simplification? I mean you guys probably have like 700 different corporate entities something crazy like that right. So is there any chance you can unwind some that stuff.
Darius Adamczyk:
That’s an inside information now. Scott, I think it's funny. You can see us in the room I am actually smiling at [indiscernible] Because that's actually -- I think your point is spot on. I mean I think -- what I think is underestimated today's is there is an opportunity to simplify a lot of our legal entities. That is an effort that actually we've already launched and is leading that effort. But I also think that something has underestimated the level of complexity in this new tax structure in terms of versus where we're going versus where we are today. So, I applaud the new tax code and we think it's extremely helpful for U.S. business. But it will require us to restructure ourselves and we do believe that new structure long term will be simplified, will cost us less, will make a lot easier to do business. Can I quantify that for you right now? I can't. because we literally just started out work a couple of weeks ago. But I do anticipate there will be a source of value for Honeywell and our shareholders.
Scott Davis:
Okay good. That's the only good answer I've gotten so far. So, thanks for that. I wanted to ask about business jets in the context of this tax act too. And then you know the money is coming back and it doesn't seem like anybody has brought a business jet in a while. I mean you guys have always had really good forecasters, who were known for long time as being the best source for the business jet forecast. What are your guides saying and if you on this earlier, and I missed it, when I went out for coffee sorry? But what are you guide saying as far as the potential impact on guys having a few extra bucks around buying some planes?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think probably the right answer is, it’s a little bit too early to tell because we would like to see that reflected in kind of the order rates on the part of our business jet customers. But one would have to believe that this should have a positive impact on the overall demand. I think from now we are kind of sticking what we said before is that we anticipate some uptick in the second half of this year and stronger environment in 2019. But like I said I think it’s just a little bit too early to tell the real impact, the new tax code is 30 days old and difficult to project at this point the impact it has. But sort of logically tell you, it should be an up arrow for us.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yes, the only other thing we have going with is the mandates and some of the software after-market offerings that we do on the business jet side. So, we might not be clicking away at the double-digits, we certainly are getting new technology investments for existing platforms.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna with Cowen & Company.
Gautam Khanna:
Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys. Two questions. First, I just wanted to ask, given Tax Reform, how does it change if at all the profile of the types of acquisitions you are looking at? Does it encourage you to go bigger? Does it do anything to the criteria that you’ve set out earlier?
Thomas Szlosek:
I don’t know if that dramatically changes it. I think given what our -- may be the only thing that’s certainly very helpful for us is the ability to bring back some more cash in the US, it certainly makes US based acquisitions a bit easier to execute because now we have got more access to cash. But in terms of focus or I think our financial metrics are set up such that the hurdles are that --- adjustment in the tax rates will be reflected in the financial metrics we look at. So, does it dramatically change the calculus? I am not sure. Other than we will have more fire power in the US, which is important and it’s important to have that kind of flexibility.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I would add to that though that we have not really been constrained in where we’re looking like, our M&A team and the businesses haven’t been saying well let’s not look into US as we don’t have cash as we’ve always able to accommodate that with our capital structure and that will be -- continue to be the case even more so now.
Gautam Khanna:
Okay. And I appreciate that. And just one follow-up. Darius, how do you keep the potential spin curves [ph] kind of focused ahead of a spend, what kind of -- just to make sure that everyone keeps running the bond [ph], I think as distracted as they move into that -- into the new world on the run?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean I think both through sort of our attention, we do these -- as our business before and after the spin, I mean we want to make sure that these are incredibly successful. We have very focused management teams in both the spins businesses. They are doing a great job in running their businesses but also getting ready for the spins. I am very confident that the teams in those businesses are focused on delivering now, and after the spins take place. So, I think there is also proper incentives that are aligned to the success before and after the spin is well, which we have taken care of and put in place.
Thomas Szlosek:
Gautam, this is not an effort that’s being done in some far-flung part of the company. The team, the spin code team is executing on the transactions, actually reports into Darius and I directly. We do involve the business as being spun. But we want them focused for the most part on executing on their operating plans. And that’s the way we’ve structured. The 2 objectives of the spin team are, one, day 1 readiness for those organizations and we have a very strong cadence and operating system around that in terms of systems, in terms of people and staffing and doing all the regulatory filings and so forth. So that’s very rigorous. Secondly, its stranded costs, and with 20% of the revenues from the remain co [ph] going with the spin, we need to right size the company. And so that SpinCo leadership team also is in the process of managing that cost structure. So, Darius and I get regular weekly visibility to it. We put on some of the most senior people in Honeywell to do this and we’re encouraged by the progress we’re making.
Darius Adamczyk:
And I think just add to it, we have a full blown, what we call de-integration team, which is staffed by senior leaders, whose full-time job is nothing, but the focus on making certain that we have a successful spin in place and execute the business in the near-term. So, we have the right level of focus on this.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.
Peter Arment :
Just a quick one, sticking on the aerospace. Obviously, the United Airlines selection was certainly very favorable for you guys. But just kind of talking about the competitive landscape. We’re months into this deal with one of your bigger competitors, certainly the headline reads that it would be more competition for you. But at the same time, seems like there is going to be a lot of opportunity. What are you guys hearing in terms of your sense of post this merger that you will see other opportunities for growth?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I mean, Peter, we haven’t been really focused on the merger of others, I think what we’re really been focused on is executing our strategy. I continue to be extraordinarily excited about our division for connected aircraft. I think it’s been just relating, it’s reflected in our rates, certainly been a factor in the United win, and we’re getting more and more traction every day. And I feel good, because we have. If you think about the real estate in the scope on an aircraft, we have the avionics, and we have the mechanical systems and we have an integrate plan and integrate our offering. I think we have a very compelling vision for the kind of value we can create for aircraft owners, maintainers, passengers, pilots, create a more efficient, more safe experience for everybody. And that’s not visionary, that’s not a dream. That’s something that we’re executing, selling and generating revenue in today. And we feel that’s a very unique place to be in the aerospace industry and frankly we are the only ones that are executing it. I think probably our biggest opportunity or challenge at the same time is just being able to communicate that clearly and add value to end customers. But as you can tell by some of these wins, we’re doing that more and more effectively.
Peter Arment :
Okay. That’s helpful color. And just a quick one Tom, on the sensitivity around for your defense business with the CR impacts. How do we think about that? Is there any near-term impact or what's the right way to think?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well thankfully we got another reprieve. It's kind of one of those things that’s more timing than anything else. There is a slight risk at volumes pushout depending on shutdown and so forth. But I think we're -- I don't think we are anticipating any significant adverse impacts from those activities.
Operator:
And our final question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Hey. Just a question, the focus on economy was all in the U.S. but European macro metrics actually looking better than the U.S. right now so is China. Can you just talk about what you guys are seeing in Europe and what you guys are seeing in China and other emerging markets? And specifically, on China, if you're seeing any signs of deceleration? We have getting a lot of questions from investors on that?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. We're extremely bullish on China. It was an absolutely terrific year for us in China. Being close to 30% organic growth rate in China last year and it could be a slight down tick from that rate maybe. But we continue to see double digit and planning on double digit growth rate in China for us. So, we're bullish there, and that was every business. Every business grew and I think really kind of figured out the calculus as to how to be successful in China, acting like a local company. Our whole value chain now is localized. And the great news and the one that I'm really excited about is we make similar progress in India. So, I think we're really firing on all cylinders in China and India. Back to your Europe question, we're also bullish on Europe. Europe it's continued to grow we're seeing growth in Western Europe not seeing a lot of trouble spots here. So, as we head into '18 as I said, I continue to be bullish on a global basis in terms of our prospects for growth. So overall strong environment.
Andrew Obin:
And just to follow up on your Aero '18 outlook. You said on the call that none of your businesses are going to be negative but just sort of these one to three growths does imply that perhaps commercial OE is negative on the wide body deliveries. How should I think about sort of subsegments within Aero?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I think number one is that aftermarket in the services business are going to continue to be strong both through sort of what I call the proactive segment as well as the great fix. We talked about the business jet OE which is -- our plan is that as acceleration as we get deeper into the year. And on the narrow bodies, obviously this is going to be really aggressive growth for our customers. so that's sort of a rough framework that we're planning for in 2018.
Andrew Obin:
So not all of that within your framework, not all the subsegments are negative into '18?
Darius Adamczyk:
No. And on the OE side, we'll continue low-single digit kind of growth all in. is the plan. I mean that could change quarter-to-quarter and very quarter-on-quarter based on customer delivery schedules. But I think we're planning on an overall commercial OE growth rate in that range.
Andrew Obin:
So just similar level conservatism across your guidance. Thanks.
Operator:
And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for additional closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. We’ve begun 2018 with significant momentum including strong order rates, a growing backlog and favorable US tax legislation. We are excited by our prospects both in near term and long-term as Honeywell continue to outperform. I am looking forward to speaking to you next at our annual investor conference on February 19th here in Morris Plains. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - VP, IR Darius Adamczyk - President and CEO Thomas Szlosek - SVP and CFO
Analysts:
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Steven Winoker - UBS Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Company John Inch - Deutsche Bank Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Andrew Kaplowitz - Citi
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Honeywell's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thank you, Christina and good morning and welcome to Honeywell's third quarter 2017 earnings conference call. With me here today are President and CEO, Darius Adamczyk, and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements in this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance and our Annual Report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the third quarter, share our guidance for the fourth quarter, and full year 2017 and as always we will leave ample time at the end for your questions. So, with that, I'll turn the call over to President and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you Mark and good morning everyone. As we previewed last week Honeywell delivered another terrific quarter with strong organic sales growth and margin expansion leading to high quality earnings. Sales were up 5% exceeding the high end of the guidance we provided in July. Our aerospace aftermarket business grew more than 7%, our Intelligrated business which developed solutions for the warehouse automation market continued to grow at double-digit pace and every business and performance materials and technologies grew considerably led by 25% organic sales growth in UOP. In addition we saw a continued strength in high growth regions. Organic sales growth in both China and India was up more than 30% year-over-year driven by strong catalyst demand in UOP and continued growth from our differentiated offering within the home and building technologies and safety and productivity solutions. We expanded segment margins by a 120 basis points this quarter driven by strong operational performance in all businesses leading to earnings per share that came in at the high end of our guidance range of $1.75 up 16% on a basis consistent for our guidance. During the quarter we also funded about 120 million of restructuring and other projects. We remain on track to achieving our full year free cash flow guidance. Free cash flow for the quarter was 1.2 billion representing about 90% conversion. I am encouraged by the progress we made with regard to working capital but there is much more we can do and all of our businesses are focused on driving improvements to our cash cycle. Overall I am pleased with our organic sales growth momentum and the operational improvement each of our businesses continue to achieve. As a result of our continued outperformance last week we raised our full year earnings per share guidance to $7.05 to $7.10 up 9% to 10%. As you will hear shortly this morning we also raised our full year sales guidance to reflect the stronger top line performance. Tom will walk you through those updates in a few minutes. As most of you may recall last week announced the spins of Homes and Transportation Systems. As independent companies Homes and Transportation Systems will be better positioned to make tailored, strategic, and capital decisions that enable long-term value creation. At the same time these actions will make Honeywell a more focused, growth oriented, and synergistic company putting us in a better position to continue to deliver the results you've come to expect from us. I am pleased with this quarter's results and looking forward to a strong finish to 2017. Let's turn to slide 3 to discuss some of the commercial progress our business has made in the third quarter. In aerospace we launched a new unmanned aerial vehicle inspection service called Honeywell InView. The service will help customers in the utility, energy, infrastructure, and oil and gas industries improve critical structure inspections while eliminating safety hazards for employees. InView combines the proven performance of Intel's Falcon 8+ UAV system and Honeywell's varied and extensive experience across verticals whose data driven software will help customers log, analyze, and eventually predict or prevent outages and structural failures. We're excited about this unique combination of cutting edge aeronautics with software data. In Home and Building Technologies Kuala Lumpur International Airport, one of Asia's major aviation hubs selected Honeywell Building Solutions to upgrade its airfield ground lighting control and monitoring system. The Honeywell system will enhance safety and efficiency while accommodating increasing aircraft traffic. Honeywell Technology will provide real time location information on light failures to optimize response and repair, promoting enhanced operations and improved uptime. Performance Materials and Technologies announced that Kuwait Paraxylene Production Company will use Honeywell Connected Plant services to improve performance at its CCR Platforming and aromatics complex which produces a precursor to plastic fibers and films. KPPC will use Honeywell Connected Plants Process Reliability Advisor for ongoing monitoring early event detection and mitigation of performance issues before they become costly. The company will also use Process Optimization Advisor which continuously monitors streaming plant data and applies Honeywell UOP process models to determine the most cost effective mode of operations. Both services use big data analytics and machine learning to improve plan operation. We continued to deliver results for our customers through our Connected Plant offerings and I'm pleased with the traction beginning in this area. In Safety and Productivity Solutions you will recall our efforts to develop mobile computing offerings for Google's android operating system which is quickly becoming the standard for industrial handheld devices. I'm pleased to announce that earlier this week we launched the Mobility Edge Platform. Mobility Edge allows users to easily upgrade to future Android versions more than any competitive offerings in the market making it easier for customers to manage device refreshes and quickly deploy apps. We have conducted comprehensive voice of the customer research prior to the development of the Mobility Edge platform and rethought our approach to solving customer pain points that come up during our conversations. The result -- this results in a best in class scalable platform that makes deployments quick and easy for our customers. Clearly there are lot of exciting things happening across the portfolio as we head into 2018. With that I'd like to turn the call over to Tom to discuss our results.
Thomas Szlosek:
Thanks Darius, good morning, I'm on slide 4. As Darius mentioned we achieved 5% organic sales growth in the third quarter which exceeded our guidance of 2% to 4% growth. We've met or exceeded the high end of our sales guidance in every quarter of 2017 and each of our businesses is contributing to the momentum. Segment profit was 1.9 billion up 13% excluding the impact from our 2016 divestitures and segment margin expanded 120 basis points from 2016 driven by our continued focus on effective selling and operational execution. We also had some favorability from lower OEM incentives in aerospace which was contemplated in our guidance. Earnings per share was $1.75 in line with our preview on October 10th. Our third quarter tax rate came in at 23.4% lower than originally anticipated which enabled additional restructuring projects beyond what we had planned. These projects will improve our cost structure, drive further productivity starting in the fourth quarter, and begin to address the residual costs we expect as a result of the announcements. Excluding 60 million of this additional restructuring and earnings from our 2016 divestitures and normalized for tax at 26% in both periods, earnings per share was up 16% year-over-year. A number of people have asked about the impact from the extreme weather throughout the third quarter. The impact from all of the weather issues was approximately $0.02 of earnings which we were able to overcome with advanced planning and other mitigation actions. Each of our businesses was impacted in some way. We had to temporarily close six aerospace sites in the Gulf Coast and Puerto Rico, several ADI branches were closed leading to loss revenues for Home and Building Technologies. In Process Solutions several customers pushed third quarter projects into the fourth quarter and SPS experienced lower demand for safety equipment especially gas sensing products due to refinery maintenance push outs. We're proud of how our employees and management team responded and delivered despite these challenges and are pleased that all of our employees made it through the event safely. We're in the process of assessing any ongoing impact to our business. Free cash flow continues to be strong growing 18% year-to-date despite about 200 million more of timing related cash tax payments this quarter and about 500 million more year-to-date. As Darius mentioned, our focus on improving working capital is beginning to deliver results and we expect this to continue into 2018 and beyond. Free cash flow conversion in the third quarter was about 90% as Darius mentioned. Overall we delivered high quality results driven by strong operational performance in our businesses. Let's turn to slide 5 for our segment results. Starting with aerospace, sales growth was two percentage points above the high end of our guidance. Strength in the commercial after market continued this quarter with strong air transport and regional spares and continued demand for retrofits, modifications, and upgrades. The business in general aviation aftermarket was also up primarily driven by the timing of customer demand. Overall aftermarket sales grew 7%. OE sales for the quarter were up 10% driven by the impact of lower year-over-year customer incentives as expected. On the air transport side we saw higher demand on key platforms including the A318, A320, and 737, strong growth with certain regional OEM's as well. Sales and business in general aviation were better than anticipated primarily due to the timing of engines and avionic shipments and accelerated new platform demand. While we are encouraged by the strong quarter in BGA, the market is not expected to fully recover until late next year or early in 2019. Defense and space sales were down 2% organic with strong U.S. core defense sales more than offset by storm related impacts, supply based execution, and the anticipated continued weakness in the space and commercial helicopter markets. In Transportation Systems we saw a continued growth in commercial vehicles particularly for on-highway turbos driven by increased vehicle sales in the U.S., new launches in Europe, and continued enforcement of vehicle weight regulations in China. Growth in light vehicle gas turbos in China was again strong. Aerospace segment margin expansion of 290 basis points for the quarter was driven by lower year-over-year customer incentives as we signaled, commercial excellence including the impact of our investments in the sales force, the benefit from ongoing productivity initiatives, and the favorable impact of the 2016 divestiture of the government services business. Home and Building Technologies grew 2% driven by distribution and the smart energy business within products. The distribution side of the business was up 2% primarily on the strength in our ADI business. Backlog in the Honeywell Building Solutions business was up over 20% in the quarter with every region reporting double-digit increases and every line of business up year-over-year. Within the products businesses we continue to execute several large smart meter program roll outs and saw continued strong demand for clean air and water products in China. Segment margin for HPT expanded 10 basis points driven by benefits from commercial excellence and our ongoing productivity initiatives partially offset by continued unfavorable mix both within the products businesses and between products and distribution. Performance Materials and Technology has had another outstanding quarter with organic sales up 10% and 170 basis points of margin expansion. There is broad strength across the PMT businesses. UOP sales were up 25% with every line of business achieving double-digit year-over-year increases including strong licensing, equipment, catalyst, and gas processing volumes. There was good growth in mega-projects in China, strong catalysts reload volumes in India and Asia-Pac, and new unit growth in the Middle East. In HPS sales were up 5% with significant growth in the short cycle software and services businesses as well as in thermal solutions. Advanced materials had another quarter of strong growth driven by continued demand for Solstice, low global warming products. Orders and backlog were up high single-digits across the entire PMT portfolio. Margin expansion in PMT came in at the high-end of our guidance range driven by the volume leverage from PMT's exceptional sales growth, results from our commercial excellence efforts, and the divestiture of the former resins and chemical business last year. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, organic sales were up 3%. Intelligrated booked a record amount of orders in the third quarter and had another quarter of 20% sales growth driven by strong demand from large customers. Workflow solutions recorded double-digit growth this quarter with significant demand coming from existing customers of our Vocollect voice unable solutions as well as a large project rollout for key European customer within our Movilizer software business. In Sensing and IoT demand for our sensing controls and new sensor product remained strong with control -- with growth in all regions particularly in high growth regions like China. In Productivity Products we saw double-digit growth within our scanning business as well as robust demand for printers. And as Darius mentioned we're working to address the Android based gaps in our mobility product line. We anticipate that we'll see the impact of our new Android launches next year. Finally Safety grew 1% on an organic basis driven by demand for our high risk and general safety personal protective equipment offerings. Again we were modestly impacted in Safety by the hurricanes in the quarter mostly in the gas sensing lines and fully expect a recovery in the fourth quarter. SPS segment margins expanded 190 basis points excluding the first year dilutive impacts from M&A primarily driven by higher volumes, continued productivity and restructuring benefits, and partially offset by investments in commercial excellence. A great third quarter performance across all the businesses as Darius mentioned while overcoming unanticipated impacts from the weather related disruptions. Slide 6 walks our earnings per share from the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017. Earnings from our divestitures in the third quarter were approximately $0.04 per share in 2016. We exclude those amounts from the 2016 baseline consistent with our guidance framework. For comparison purposes we have also normalized the tax rate for the third quarter of 2016 to the 26% effective tax rate we assumed in our third quarter guidance, the impact of which was $0.05 per share. As you can see the overwhelming majority of our earnings growth is coming from segment profit improvement in the business with all four segments contributing to the growth led by aerospace. This reflects the impacts from the strong top line in the quarter as well as our commercial excellence efforts in HOS Gold deployment and savings from previously executed restructuring projects. Below the line items were at $0.02 head win this quarter primarily due to the absence of the third quarter 2016 gain from the sale of our former aerospace government services business partially offset by slightly lower restructuring expense year-over-year. In the third quarter we funded nearly 120 million of restructuring which was partially enabled by a lower than planned tax rate at approximately 23%. Other items including non-controlling interest, share count, and tax were roughly flat year-over-year. Let's turn to slide 7 for our expectations on the fourth quarter. In aerospace organic sales are expected to be up 1% to 3%. In commercial OE we expect roughly flat sales growth in total driven by strong air transport deliveries partially offset by the impact of declining shipments on legacy air transport platforms and slight declines in BizJet OE. We anticipate modest growth in the business aviation aftermarket on the timing of customer demand for spares and expect the air transport after market to be roughly flat driven by increased repair and overhaul activities offset by the timing of spares demand. In defense we have a healthy backlog and expect continued strength in U.S. core defense partially offset by ongoing space weakness. Demand for gas turbos in Europe is expected to drive low to mid single-digit growth in transportation systems. Aerospace margins should expand by 70 to 90 basis points this quarter driven by volume leverage, commercial excellence, restructuring benefits, and productivity net of inflation. In HPT we anticipate organic sales growth of 2% to 3%. Within the products businesses growth in smart energy will continue albeit at a slower pace as we move past the large smart meter rollout we executed in the second and third quarters. We also anticipate improvement within security and fire. Security was improved each quarter in 2017 and we expect that to continue as a result of new product introductions and commercial excellence. In distribution the strong building solutions backlog I mentioned earlier combined with the continued strength in the global distribution business will drive low single-digit growth in the fourth quarter. HPT segment margins are expected to contract 10 to 30 basis points driven by continued head wins from product mix partially offset by saving some prior restructuring actions and ongoing commercial excellence and productivity initiatives. As a reminder Smart Energy was recently moved from HPT to Performance Materials and Technologies and their results will be included in PMT's results beginning with the fourth quarter earnings. Before our December outlook we expect to file Form 8-K with the SEC to restate the 2016 and 2017 quarterly segment results to reflect this movement of the Smart Energy business. In Performance Materials and Technologies sales are expected to be up 10% to 12% on an organic basis driven by continued conversion to sales of our strong backlog. UOP is expected to deliver another quarter of strong growth driven by natural gas recovery projects in the UOP Russell business in Russia and North America as well as strong initial catalyst loads in the Middle East. We expect mid single-digit growth in HPS with significant demand for our thermal solutions and field instruments. In Advanced Materials we expect double-digit growth fueled primarily by our Solstice refrigerants for mobile air conditioning. PMT segment margins are expected to contract 110 to 120 basis points driven by an unfavorable mix of equipment versus catalyst sales in UOP year-over-year. In the fourth quarter of 2016 PMT had catalyst growth of 17% which fueled expansion of more than 500 basis points of margin. Even so for the full year we expect PMT will still generate 140 basis points of margin expansion, truly an outstanding year. In Safety and Productivity Solutions sales are expected to be up 5% to 7% on an organic basis. In the safety business we expect robust growth as refinery maintenance resumes following the hurricane related impacts in the third quarter which will drive demand for our entire range of safety products. We expect that the retail business will return to growth this quarter as we execute the new direct selling strategy in that business and expect we'll see normal elevated seasonal demand. Growth and productivity products will be driven by another strong quarter at Intelligrated building on the robust orders and backlog growth throughout 2017 as well as continued strong demand for the Sensing and Controls business and Workflow Solutions including Vocollect and Movilizer. SPS margins are expected to expand by 110 to 130 basis points driven primarily by higher volumes and the results from our ongoing productivity and repositioning effort. For Honeywell in total we expect another strong quarter of organic sales growth and 30 to 50 basis points of margin expansion leading to earnings per share of $1.79 to $1.84. We expect that our fourth quarter effective tax rate will be about 21% with a full year closer to 22%. We intend to undertake additional restructuring projects as we have the past two quarters enabled by this expected low fourth quarter effective tax rate. The difference between the organic and sales projections you see on this page is primarily due to the stronger U.S. dollar. On M&A we have lapped the impacts of our two big divestitures, the aerospace government service business and the resins and chemicals business as well as the impact of the Intelligrated acquisition. Our fourth quarter and full year guidance does not contemplate significant cost to prepare our Homes and Transportation Systems businesses for the spins we announced last week. We're working to define those costs and work streams and will provide more details as we progress. Let's move to slide 8, last week we raised the low-end of our full year EPS guidance by $0.05 to $7.05 to $7.10 per share up 9% to 10%. This growth excludes the impact of 2016 divestitures, fourth quarter 2016 debt refinancing charges, and the pension mark-to-mark adjustment. Based on current discount rates and asset return assumptions as of September 30th we do not expect the 2017 pension mark-to-mark adjustment to be significant. We're raising our full year sales guidance to a new range of 40.2 billion to 40.4 billion up 3% to 4% organic and up 2% to 3% reported. This new range reflects stronger sales performance and outlooks in aerospace and performance materials and technologies. You can see the revised sales guidance on the right side of the page. We remain within the initial guidance for the segment margin and have narrowed our estimate to about 19% which is up 70 basis points year-over-year. There's no change to our full year free cash flow guidance. The year-to-date free cash flow performance has been good and each of our businesses continues to remain focused on improving our working capital execution. Let me turn to slide 10 for a quick wrap up, the third quarter marked another strong performance for Honeywell, each of our segments meeting or beating their commitments. We had outstanding sales performance and robust orders and backlog growth across the businesses that will help fuel continued growth. We expect to finish the year strong with fourth quarter organic sales growth between 4% and 6% and earnings per share of $1.79 to $1.84. For the year we raised our sales guidance to a new range of 40.2 billion to 40.4 billion and reaffirm the new earnings per share guidance range we provided last week, $7.05 to $7.10 per share. We continue to make investments to drive future profitable growth as well as to be begin to eliminate the residual costs we expect as a result of the announced spins of the Homes and Transportation Systems businesses. At Honeywell we're committed to driving share owner value, that means optimizing our portfolio as we announced last week but that also means remaining focused on delivering outstanding results on a growth, productivity, and cash flow every quarter of every year. With that Mark let's move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks Tom. Darius and Tom are now available to answer your questions. So Christina if you could please open the lines for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question coming from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you, good morning everyone, and I'm sorry I signed on late so you may have covered some of this before. One of the follow-up points I had on the spin announcements, divestiture announcements earlier was the potential for and the use of the Honeywell brand for the divested businesses just it's kind of a clean-up question on that announcement, I will start there please?
Darius Adamczyk:
Sure, I think as it relates to the Honeywell brand some of those decisions have not been made in terms of how we're going to -- what we're going to do with the brand for either the Homes or the Transportation Systems business. So I think that we will provide more clarity on that as we move forward but there are a lot of different options that we have and it's going to be part of our work product and we will be communicating that as it becomes clearer in Q1 and Q2 of next year.
Deane Dray:
And how about just a broader question on a progress report and goals for the transformation of Honeywell to the software industrial Darius that you envision, just in terms of portfolio shaping the way you're looking at M&A emphasizing perhaps some software as a service opportunities within the portfolio?
Darius Adamczyk:
You're right overall I'm very pleased in terms of how our Connected Enterprises is progressing this year. It is up double-digit which is very much in line of expectations. Margins are up even higher than that. In terms of acquisitions and landscape we continue to look at all segments of the business including our software plays. We've made one acquisition actually in the software area in Q3 which is pretty exciting cyber technology that although the business itself is relatively small we have very, very big growth opportunities for it and it's actually exceeding our expectations. So the software acquisitions in general will be more of the bolt on variety, those are the kind that we're looking at but overall we continue to make progress both on the P&L on Connected Enterprise continues to make progress on the build out of our Sentience platform and signing up more partners as we go. So we continue to be very excited about what we're doing. And the most important part of that it’s generating the right kind of results.
Deane Dray:
Got it and just last question, I know we're going to hear more of this in your outlook call but broad strokes, the outlook on 2018 in terms of the macro environment where do you think you're particularly well positioned both U.S., outside the U.S.?
Thomas Szlosek:
Yes, Deane this is Tom. We are in the throes of our planning right now. We'll go through the details as we get into November-December. We're looking at trends continuing in most of our businesses. I mean you see the strength in aerospace, a lot of good flight hour activity, the defense is looking up. And you know with any luck at some point at the tail end of 2018 we will get some help from the Business Jet side. Although Business Jet usage remains strong, so we expect those trends to continue. PMT we really are encouraged not only by their performance but by the strength of the orders and backlog and it's been in all lines of business. I mean not to denigrate last year but we had great orders last year than they were in the aftermarket side. We're seeing a lot of front-end orders type business in PMT particularly in UOP and HPS which bodes well for building installed base and building our service business. So really strong trends there. In SPS Intelligrated continues to perform very well. We expect that backlog which is well over 20% to fuel excellent growth and we expect the trends in that vertical to continue with the e-commerce. And the safety business continues to do well. We've got the Android products on productivity and the software businesses and SPS so, good trends. You saw our fourth quarter expected growth and I think we'll see that continue into next year. So overall I see some trends, some growth trends continuing. Deane as you saw every quarter of this year the organic growth rate has improved and if our guidance holds up into the fourth quarter that should at least be equal to the third quarter and hopefully that continues into next year. So overall pretty strong conditions ahead we are encouraged.
Deane Dray:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Steven Winoker with UBS.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks and good morning all.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Steven Winoker:
Darius could you maybe expand a little bit on your thoughts around PMT and UOP in terms of that refining cycle, given you a lot of -- I mean overall the tailwinds top line, I know you got equipment challenges but the cyclical versus structural side of this, now what are you kind of expecting given Tom's comment for the length of tailwinds in that -- one of that very important segment?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well Steve as Tom pointed out one of the most important things for that business we always watch is the bookings. It is very much a long cycle bookings our you know backlog’s up -- it's going to -- we know for a fact that is going to be up probably double-digit by the end of this year versus the end of last year. We continue to be bullish, we are winning a lot of work. We are particularly winning a lot of work in our high growth regions which I find to be really important because as you think about where PMT needs to be strong and has to be strong is in the development and progress of a lot of the developing regions and it's exactly where it is winning. So it's win rate in China, India markets such as this give me a great deal of comfort is that it's going to continue to perform. Our backlog position is strong and we expect another strong quarters of booking in Q4 and go into 2018 with a strong position. And the good news is we're kind of seeing it across all the segment whether it's our gas processing business, whether it is the catalyst business all of those have been particularly strong which by the way enjoyed the biggest order ever in Q3 in terms of our catalyst orders. So overall things are very much moving in the right direction for all of PMT but especially UOP.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks, that's helpful. On SPS I think you had about a month of Intelligrated in that 3% organic, let me know if that's about right. So ex-Intelligrated which you say was up more than 20 so the rest of that business must have been down I don’t know, low to mid single-digits or something. Can you give a little color on that and maybe it is on the mobility productivity side but just a better understanding of the organic performance ex-Intelligrated there?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, it's actually good and you see there's growth in every business. The only business where we didn't see growth was productivity products and the depth due to some of the challenges we previously communicated around the mobility platform because if we look at the scanning side of the business was actually up close to 20%. So we have one small area which is challenged and the productivity product business is challenged but as we just announced we have had exciting new product launch this week. We have more coming in the middle of November and another set of new product launches in the mobility segment coming in the middle of February. So we're not where we want to be on mobility and productivity products but I'm very confident that business as we have in the 2018 in Q1 and Q2 it is going to start turn their performance around as it launches these new offerings. But overall a very strong performance across the board by SPS other than the one issue you about and we aren’t particularly surprised about the outcome.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah, not to mention overcoming the storms and hurricanes in the safety business in particular. I mean as you know the oil and gas vertical is a big sector and there was a lot of push outs of projects and activity that that affected the -- particularly the gas monitoring business and safety. But overall the trends there are really strong as Darius said.
Steven Winoker:
Just numbers are -- it's up 1% though right, ex-Intelligrated Tom, so it was positive still?
Thomas Szlosek:
Absolutely, yes.
Steven Winoker:
Yes, okay.
Thomas Szlosek:
No, no Steve I'm not saying that the numbers ex-Intelligrated were up 1%. I mean as Darius said, every one of the business wasn’t just Intelligrated that was contributing more than 2% or 3%.
Steven Winoker:
Alright, great, thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Stephen Tusa:
Hey guys, thanks for having me on the call this morning. It's nice to be able to get on calls and ask questions. Just first question, you guys you recently raised your dividend by how much?
Thomas Szlosek:
12% Steve.
Stephen Tusa:
And the commitment has continued to do that and drive that faster than earnings going forward for the next few years?
Darius Adamczyk:
Go ahead Tom.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah, the commitment that we've made, that Darius talked about at the Investor Day -- at our Investor Day was continuing for the five year plan with the idea of raising the dividend faster than the earnings growth. And we're coming up to the end of that. As we look forward we'll watch that but what the minimum we're committing to keep the dividend growth in line with earnings growth and it will track earnings per share.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, and Steve -- so as we said, as they've committed for the five year period which ends in 2018 we're going to grow dividends at a pace that is faster than earnings. We're committed to that, it is consistent with what we set five years ago. The period after that what I would say is going to be equal to or greater than earnings. We are going to provide greater clarity on that in our February Investor Day. But I'd expect to be equal to or greater than that.
Stephen Tusa:
Right and you guys have free cash flow so we can talk about that, at the -- have you seasonally kind of suggested that your cash should be kind of towards the higher end of the range, well just remind us what the target is 100%, is that for 2018 or 2019?
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah, Steve the way I talked about that at the Investor Day and largely sticking to it is that by -- at run rate 2018 but really in 2019 we expect to be at 100%.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay and then just one last question, you know math is clearly not a strong suit, there are prerequisites for being on the sell side. But the math around safety and productivity solutions I was getting something a little different like maybe 1% or 1.5% growth in the core business and with your new Android products that is coming in would you expect that kind of core growth, I mean not that it really matters because Intelligrated is an organic grower that has tremendous orders, so I'm not sure why we are picking that apart in the first place. But would you expect that to get better next year with some of these new products coming into fray and changing productivity?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, absolutely. I mean we expect much improved growth rate in productivity products next year as these new product launch and gain traction. I probably expect it to accelerate a bit through the quarters because the bulk of our launches are coming in Q4 and Q1 so obviously it takes time to generate the orders but the short answer is yes. And that's -- I think we have continued to talk about productivity products, it is one segment of one business where we had a little bit of a struggle but across all the other businesses it has been a really nice story of both top line growth and margin expansion.
Stephen Tusa:
Yeah, I guess people just can't live without adjusting numbers everywhere so I can understand why we would do that for a first segment like that. Congrats on a top tier organic growth and keeping your eye on the ball.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thanks Steve.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Gautam Khanna with Cowen and company.
Gautam Khanna:
Yes, thank you guys. I was wondering if I could provide early perspective on any competitive implications of UTX Collins and have you given any more thought to the whole Boeing Avionics initiative and their stated goal of kind of moving into the aftermarket on the aerospace side, thank you?
Darius Adamczyk:
Sure, yeah, so I mean I think starting with Collins and UTX obviously something that we have analyzed but the way we look at this is the capability that we currently have both on the mechanical systems as well as avionics are on par greater than anything that UTX or Collins would have in creating that merger. And I am particularly excited as it relates to our vision of connected aircraft because having both front-end and electronics as well as the mechanical systems really gives you strengthened capability to implement and deliver that vision of a connected aircraft. And it's not theoretical for us, it's something that we already have and are delivering and it's growing double-digit. And we're marching through the aircraft to get all of our systems connected. We already have APUs, launched wheels and brakes this quarter and we're going to be marching through so I'm not sure that that merger puts us in any kind of a disadvantage vis-à-vis UTX or Collins. And maybe most importantly I never viewed the aerospace segment as one where scale matters. What matters for our us is technology differentiation and that's going to be our basis for competition. In terms of the Boeing avionics and services announcement clearly we do respect what they're doing. There's not a lot of clarity yet and it was exactly what that means and what we are doing. Obviously Boeing is a highly valued and important customer for us which we're going to continue to work with and support. But we also have our own relationship with the end users, the airlines and we have a strong vision for growing our services and RMUs and connected aircraft as well. So, we are going to be as supportive as we can to Boeing and stay in sync with them and create a win-win for both companies.
Gautam Khanna:
Thanks Darius, maybe just a follow-up on M&A, when you look at the pipeline and some of the portfolio actually you've announced, are there any larger properties that are attractive to you or should we expect more in the kind of couple of billion or Elster sized bites going forward or are there somethings…?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, you know there is always things that are attractive but I would expect more of the bolt on variety that's really our sweet spot and that's where we are looking. And I would say our pipeline is built more bolt on variety type of acquisitions. But, you never know anything could happen but I would say I would be more expectant of bolt-on.
Gautam Khanna:
Thank a lot guys, good luck.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from John Inch with Deutsche Bank.
John Inch:
Thank you, good morning everyone and I would also like to echo Steve Tusa's commentary, it is nice when companies allow question. So I want to start, was…
Darius Adamczyk:
We aim to please John.
John Inch:
Yes, you roll with the punches I appreciate it. So, with the pricing is there any discernible trend on pricing, there's a little bit of still this debate around [indiscernible] various companies are calling out and just curious. I realize you guys have -- you're not a huge rise spreads company but there is a little bit of impact, are spreads improving or how should we think about that?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, no, I mean obviously we're in a bit of an inflationary environment for some of the commodities but one thing I'm very proud of all our teams and all our businesses, they have really stayed on their toes, made the adjustments, understand what the impacts are and really are capturing the value that our services and products provide from our customers. So, I think overall we've probably been more challenged on the cost side this year than we've seen in a while. But I also think we reacted quickly, made the right adjustments, we have a very active value engineering program as well that produces substantial productivity. And we also understand the value that we bring to our customers and make adjustments as required. So all in all done a nice job here. [Multiple Speakers]
Darius Adamczyk:
Say that again John.
John Inch:
Yeah, I just said, sorry, with respect to drag in the quarter this year versus last year if there's a way to kind of capture that?
Thomas Szlosek:
No, I think we are -- when you look at the actual pricing it's what we talked about last quarter. It is holding in there quite nicely. We have been able to -- 50 to 100 basis point depending upon the business and largely recovering the types of inflation Darius talked about. Like he said the businesses are laser focused on -- particularly on the material inflation side.
Darius Adamczyk:
John, I would just point to the fact that every one of our businesses expanded margins in Q3, I mean every single one. So, and we're on that trend for the whole year as well.
John Inch:
Yeah so, that kind of almost leads to the question of cash and given all the investments you guys have been putting in, the new products and so forth and the growth that you anticipate it's clearly what is picking up in PMT and aerospace. I forget Darius you had mentioned this in kind of the portfolio review call but what's your sort of line of sight to Honeywell getting to 100% free cash conversion if not higher than that and where does that kind of rank in your strategic priority list of things you're trying to accomplish?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, it's important and we're -- that's exactly what we're aiming is 100%, it is consistent with the message we have been giving. You know we're marching towards that goal where we did roughly 90% this year, we expect to see improvement next year, and then further improvement 2019. And it's a very conscious call and I can tell you that we've never had more focus on working capital than we do today. We are seeing some progress being made there and there's more to go but it's a very important goal, the goal that both Tom and myself and the rest of the business leaders take very seriously and we are committed to it.
John Inch:
You know just lastly on the question to capital allocation, I mean you just basically said look, let's think about near-term, we will think about our foreseeable future bolt ons, while the stuff out there is pretty pricey given what's happened in public markets plus Darius I think a lot of the things that you want to aspire towards improving or realizing in your mix, software, industrial, etc I mean that stuff has got to be pretty pricey too. Is the playbook kind of in the intermediate term just we're not going to do a lot of M&A, I mean what's the -- kind of how do you judge that balance or gauge that balance, because you don’t want to overpay but you don't want to sit and sort of do nothing if the prices are the prices, right?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, I think that's fair and we've been very cautious. We've been very active by the way in the M&A area but we're going to -- the one thing we're known for we're known for doing days there and that is going to be the same there. And we are going to stay disciplined in terms of M&A. But if you're selective and you're active which we're going to be both of these things sometimes you can find the gems at the right price. So we're going to continue to try and going to have -- we have a robust pipeline and we're not marching off the field because things look expensive, they do but we believe that there are opportunities out there where we can participate in appealing valuation. Now having said that if there's nothing that happens we're obviously we're going to also be looking at buybacks as another way to distribute cash back to our shareholders. So there's always a balance, we'd like to have some ability to stay balanced. Our preference is for bolt on M&A but it's got to be smart and we got to pay the right price. And if we can't get that done then we are obviously going to be a little bit heavier on buybacks.
John Inch:
Thank you and by the way you guys better hold on the Mark, good investor relations are hard to find.
Darius Adamczyk:
I think the checks in the mail John.
John Inch:
Any check would be welcome, trust me.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, it just feels like there's a lot of passive aggressiveness on the call today.
John Inch:
Can't imagine why. Operator And we will take our next question from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, I will keep this one simple I think. Good morning guys. So SPS, so no passive aggressiveness, maybe some aggression but nothing passive. So, -- SPS organic growth obviously in 4Q we've kind of being shadowboxing around this as well, so math is not my strong point but Intelligrated would be about 2 to 2.5 points tailwinds to that number, so we're looking at maybe a core of 4% to 5% ex-Intelligrated?
Darius Adamczyk:
I think, I will have to do the math, but each of the business is at least low to mid single-digit that you put in productivity product side. So for example the safety business Nigel, I mean where it was you know low single-digits in the third quarter that's going to be good mid single-digits in the fourth. And industrial safety will be well into the mid to higher single-digits, you know high risk businesses is doing well. We also will have really strong results expected on the retail business. As you know we've changed the business model, that's going to be well into the double-digits. Productivity even with the productivity products overall will be high single-digit in productivity. As Darius said, the scanning business is doing fantastic, work flow is going to be north of 20%, our software and sensing business will be mid to high single-digit. And Intelligrated will be up like we said it would be but it's everywhere and globally as well. I mean it's in the U.S., it's Europe, China, so it's not just a poll from Intelligrated that's doing this nor is it the productivity product pulling us down. These are all really good growers given an organic growth range we have talked about.
Nigel Coe:
It sounds pretty broad. One of your competitors dramatic drop to surprise warning in that warehouse business, I think it was yesterday or day before, seems to imply that leaves us some share, I mean maybe you could just touch on how you're seeing the maybe the front-end and the warehouse business as you go into 2018?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, we continue to be very bullish and we had a very strong orders quarter in Q3, we anticipate another one for Q4 and as I said, I think this is really well positioned because what's really growing the fastest is the e-commerce, high throughput type of warehouses. And that is exactly the sweet spot of that business and customers are seeing the value and we're generating the orders. And as you can imagine it's a very quickly growing playing field in warehouse automation given the expansion in warehouse and distribution. And we don't see that pausing, we are bullish on our Q4 and we are bullish on 2018.
Nigel Coe:
Great, and then just a quick one…
Thomas Szlosek:
Go ahead, I was just going to say we did take note of the competitor announcement you talked about but our, as Darius said, our fourth quarter -- our third quarter was just fantastic in terms of orders growth and Intelligrated. I mean, strong, strong double-digits and as he said we expect that to continue. Backlog is really good, I mean compared to last year and it is all organic growth. I mean well over 50% backlog growth. So it's positioned very well.
Nigel Coe:
And then just quickly Tom on the [indiscernible] margin expansion in 4Q, obviously the FX hedge we got in place for this year is margin dilutive given the dynamics of stronger revenues from weaker dollar but no impact to EBIT, so I am just wondering will that be about 20 bips or so that's what my math tells me?
Thomas Szlosek:
You mean for Q4?
Nigel Coe:
For Q4, yeah.
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah, I mean the translation and -- that will be about flat for us I mean year-over-year. I don't think that's going to be a big impact overall FX for 4Q. When you consider the hedges, the movement in the rates and everything it's basically flat.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, got it. Thanks a lot guys.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you, good morning guys. Hey, just a quick one from me. You guys covered a lot of ground. I just want to get to hone in a little bit further on this free cash flow question looking forward and I'm just wondering perhaps it is for Tom but Darius you are certainly welcome to chime in, just what is the big bridge items next year when we think about free cash flow. I'm assuming CAPEX might be down a little bit, I don't know if you expect help on working capital, you've got growth that are mitigated against it, right so maybe your churns improve but maybe absolute working capital doesn't, pension etc, just what are the really the big items next year that kind of puts you on the path with 100% in 2019?
Thomas Szlosek:
I mean when you look at 2017 Jeff I mean we're looking at about 1 billion of CAPEX although that could be a little heavy. When you look at that as a reinvestment ratio expect that to come down in 2020. There will be at least 150 million to 200 million less of CAPEX which is a big driver for us. We do have incremental cash tax spending this year and it's mostly timing related. We will have probably by the end of the year incremental 500 million year-over-year. I don't expect that to repeat next year so that should give us some tailwind. And then most importantly operationally Darius talked about is working capital. We're kind of improving our trends which means kind of treading water this year not necessarily adding huge amounts to working capital. The churn is kind of staying flat but as he said a lot of business is focused on driving that going forward. We're going to need 200 million to 300 million out of our working capital next year to go to drive towards that 100%. I would say those are the big three things that we're looking at.
Jeff Sprague:
Great, I will leave it there. Thanks guys.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning guys.
Darius Adamczyk:
Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
Just a couple questions, on aerospace, as we think about the defense portfolio of programs, as defense budgets improve how should we think about your portfolio of programs relative to budget, i.e. do you think you can keep up with the budget, I mean is there something -- is there a big outline in terms of your programs that Honeywell is going to be very different?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think it's going to be aligned and I mean we're seeing really good growth particularly in the U.S. defense budgets where we I think we have obviously greater clarity and a much greater density. And that segment of the business is doing well. We anticipate to continue to do well and it will be aligned or higher than the growth. When it comes to international it's a little bit more hazy because obviously we are talking a lot of different countries, a lot of different programs, and we have some programs that are ending, some that are continuing but overall it's kind of an up Aero given what we're seeing in the geopolitical arena, anticipate slightly greater spending by NATO as a whole. And some recovery in the Eagle [ph] markets in the future which as you know is in that segment. So overall constructive comes to defense.
Andrew Obin:
Right, so that should be a nice tailwind to aerospace and another question just talking about China and emerging markets visibility. A) what are you guys seeing on the ground with this party congress, is everything on track? And the second, how should we think about your China exposure going forward given the portfolio changes that you guys have made now that your China business is really driven by Aero and UOP, do you sort of disconnect from the underlying China macro to a certain degree going forward, thank you?
Darius Adamczyk:
No, I mean China and India as we pointed out this quarter have been up 30% and that success is not isolated to PMT or Aero. That's for every one of our business segments and as you can imagine as Comac gets going even further Aero actually that revenue potentially is still way ahead of us not behind us. Secondly UOP, HPS are continuing to win across the board in China and India, tremendous successes there this year. Buildings and Home we approach those markets a little bit differently than we do in some of the developed markets but again double-digit growth in both. So very well aligned with the urbanization trends so whether it is the independent Homes business or the remaining buildings portfolio are going to do very, very well. Warehouse automation now moving on to SPS, again early days but it's a maturing segment and one which we're going to participate in. And then finally industrial safety another segment that's evolving when still in kind of their early days but clearly worker safety is very much on the forefront of the agenda of both China and India and the regulatory environment there is changing much more worker oriented. So across our portfolio we're excited about our potential in both China and India. Both of those are great markets, we have great management team, and have both a local perspective and the results speak for themselves. I mean 30% growth in Q3 I think is tremendous.
Thomas Szlosek:
And to add to that Andrew, just I think your inference was that we're dependent upon HPT for growth there, but if you look at third quarter I mean HPT was our slowest grower amongst all of the segments in China. So it really -- [Multiple Speaker]
Andrew Obin:
Terrific, thanks a lot guys.
Operator:
And we will take our last question from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Thanks guys, good morning. Tom, last quarter you stepped up restructuring and talked about 150 million of benefits, and those seemed like you would do a fair amount of restructuring here in the short-term. I know you talked about 150 million of benefits from that last restructuring but we have greater than normal restructuring tailwind as you enter 2018, I mean how do we look at that?
Thomas Szlosek:
Yeah, I mean I don't think it's necessarily greater than what we would have had going into this year. In fact if you remember Andy that we did the significant restructuring when we divided up ACS up into HPT and SPS, there was a fair amount of delayering that took place. It gave us some pretty good tailwinds as we headed into 2017. So in 2018 I agree we've put a lot of capital to work on restructuring and there is clear momentum coming. But I wouldn't say it's a multiple of the tailwind that we had coming in 2017. And we'll give you more color on that as we get into our earnings outlook in December.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
That's helpful. And then Darius, Aero has been on pretty big positives, surprise I can tell you really the whole year so far. How much do you think the surprise has been the early year reorganization versus just you had a confluence of events last year that were kind of negative that have gotten better here in 2017 and maybe what's been the biggest surprise in the performance here in 2017?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, yeah, I mean you're right. I mean Andrew I am very pleased with how it is performing. I think not that I'm surprised by it but I'm very pleased with what's happened in terms of commercial excellence, the business capturing the aftermarket business, the RMUs, the growth in connected aircraft. It's invested in that last year in Q4 about 200 sales people that's generating a lot of new sales and we watched that at a very detailed level. The business continues to drive productivities so it does what I always want every business to do which is grow the top line as well as get more productive every year. So, yeah that is certainly -- last year was a tough year, more headwinds on the concessions but the reorganization also helped as we segregated the decision making is now faster business, moves faster. So I am really pleased with how they're executing and its continued outlook for the future.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Thanks Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you.
Operator:
And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for additional closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. I am pleased with our continued performance in the third quarter especially of our continued organic sales acceleration, our improved profit conversion, and our year-over-year improvement of free cash flow. We remain focused on delivering the sustained financial results you would have come to expect from Honeywell. There will be no distractions even as we work to spin the Homes and Transportation Systems businesses. I look forward to sharing more Honeywell successes with you and our plans for 2018 over the coming months. Enjoy the rest of your fall. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, this does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - IR Darius Adamczyk - CEO Tom Szlosek - CFO
Analysts:
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Andrew Kaplowitz - Citi Andrew Obin of Bank - America Merrill Lynch Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse John Inch - Deutsche Bank Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Company
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's Second Quarter 2017, Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. And I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thank you, Cathy. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's second quarter 2017 earnings conference call. With me here today are President and CEO, Darius Adamczyk, and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Tom Szlosek. As a reminder this call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements in this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance and our Annual Report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the second quarter, highlight some key wins across our business and share our guidance for the third quarter of '17. And our updated guidance for the full year and as always, we will leave ample time for your questions at the end. So, with that, I'll turn the call over to President and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark and good morning everyone. Today, we reported another quarter of strong performance in each of our businesses either meeting or exceeding the sales guidance we provided in April. Organic sales growth exceeded the high end of our guidance range at over 3% and good results in all four business segments. Our performance in the aerospace after market continued and our U.S. defense business improved as we anticipated. In advance materials, when performance materials and technologies recorded another quarter of double-digit revenue growth driven by the continued adoption of our Solstice line of low global warming products. And in the Home and Building technologies, we exhibited strong revenue growth at approximately 4% organic. We also expanded margins by 50 basis points this quarter driven by commercial excellence and productivity leading to earnings per share that came in at the high end of our guidance range of $1.80 and up 10% from 2016 on a basis consistent of our guidance. Our second quarter tax rate was lower than initially anticipated and this enabled us to invest more than $115 million in restructuring and other projects that’s $90 million higher than we contemplated in the guidance. These projects start delivering cost savings for us later this year and ultimately result more than $150 million in run rate savings. Excluding this additional $90 million of restructuring funding in 2016 earnings from last year’s divestitures on a normalized for tax basis, earnings per share grew 10% year-over-year. I’m pleased of our continued performance especially organic sales growth momentum, which is a testament to the growth investments we made new technologies, platforms, production capacity and M&A. We are raising our full year sales guidance to a new range of $39.3 billion to $40 billion up 2% to 4% organic and again raising the loan of our earnings guidance today. 2017 earnings per share is now expected to be between $7 and $7.10. Tom will take you through the details shortly. Each of our businesses made significant progress in our key initiatives this quarter, and I’d like to provide some brief highlights. Let’s turn to Slide 3. In aerospace, our suite of connected aircraft offering continues to gain traction. We announced that GoDirect connected maintenance, which combines our connectivity, in depth product knowledge, and data analytics to predict when mechanic parts need to be fixed or replaced will be used on the auxiliary volumes [ph] of 60 of Cathay's Airbus A330 aircraft. The agreement was a result of a successful trial, which saved Cathay Pacific several hundred thousand dollars in operational and reactive maintenance cost per aircraft and reduced APU related delays by 51%. In Home and Building technologies, we launched the Lyric C1 Wi-Fi security camera, the latest in our growing line of do-it-yourself offerings that can help make them smarter and serve our faster growing segment of the market. The C1 can be setup easily using a Lyric app on your mobile device and it offers intelligent sound and motion detection. Since its launch last month, the C1 camera has already generated more than 1 million in sales and more than 80% of reviewers are recommending it. We are in exciting pipeline of other new products in Home and Building technologies, that will roll out over the latter half of the year. In performance materials and technologies, we announced the agreement to acquire Nextnine, a leading provider of CyberSecurity solutions for industrial sites. Nextnine has an impressive installed base of more than 6,000 sites around the world and is especially strong in the oil and gas, utility, chemical and mining manufacturing sectors. We are exciting about the combination of Nextnine of growing CyberSecurity business with Honeywell process solutions. Nextnine broadens our offerings for an installed base while complementing our broader offerings in connected plant. Lastly, in safety and productivity solutions, we introduced connected freight which was developed with Intel and third party Logistic companies. Connected freight can help shippers and logistic companies monitor a high value in perishable goods to prevent damage and loss. Sensor tags are fixed too pallets [ph] or packages and they send real-time information about the location and condition of critical freight while in transit. Our connected offerings continue to gain traction and feedback from our customers have been extremely positive. Our evolution as a software industrial leader is well underway and I'm encouraged by our progress. With that, I'll turn over to Tom to discuss our financial results in more detail.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks, Darius. Good morning, I'm on slide 4. As Darius mentioned we achieved more than 3% organic sales growth in the second quarter. The guidance was zero to 2%. The momentum continued from the first quarter with all of our businesses either meeting or exceeding their sales guidance. Segment profit was $1.9 billion, that was up 6% excluding the impact from our 2016 divestitures. Segment margin expanded 50 basis points from 2016, that was driven by volume leverage and commercial excellence, as well as our continued focus on productivity and returns from previously executed restructuring projects. Earnings per share were $1.80, our second quarter tax rate was 21.3%, lower than we originally expected due to higher than anticipated employee stock option exercises. But this favorable impact was offset by provisions for additional restructuring projects beyond what we anticipated in the original guidance. These investments will drive further growth and productivity mostly starting in 2018. Excluding those investments, and earnings from our 2016 divestitures and normalized for tax to 25% in both periods, earnings per share was up 10% year-over-year. Our free cash flow momentum continues with strong operational performance in each of our segments. Year-to-date free cash flow was up 39% from 2016, despite approximately $300 million more in timing related income tax payments. Overall, it was another quarter of strong operational performance. Let's move to slide 5, to discuss our segments in more detail. Let me start with aerospace which delivered a very strong quarter in both sales and profit. Aerospace sales growth was 2 percentage points above the high end of our guidance. Strength in the commercial aftermarket continued this quarter with strong repair and overhaul activity, growing sales of retrofits modifications and upgrades, and robust fares demand in the air transport and regional segment. The business in general aviation aftermarket was also up, primarily driven by timing of customer demand. Overall, aftermarket sales grew 5% this quarter. The OE dynamics, we've talked about in the last quarter continued with market related weakness in business and general aviation and slowing shipments for the legacy air transport and air transport platforms, partially offset by growth in new platforms. Overall, OE sales were down 5%. Defense sales were up 5%, -- I'm sorry, defense sales were up 2% driven by deliveries related to the F-35 program, and sensors and guidance systems within the U.S. defense segment. This was partially offset by continued weakness in the space and commercial helicopter markets as we anticipated. In transportation systems, growth was driven by continued recovery of the commercial vehicles market demand especially strong for on highway turbos in the U.S., Europe and China. The China growth was driven by new regulations that restrict the weight of commercial vehicles spurring demand for turbo charger technology that can provide more power to smaller size engines. This is the trend we expect to continue for the remainder of 2017. Aerospace segment margin expansion of 140 basis points for the quarter exceeded the high end of our guidance driven by that higher sales volume as well as productivity, net of inflation and the favorable impact of the 2016 divestiture of the government services business. Home and Building Technologies performance was mixed with strong organic sales but lower than anticipated margin rate growth. HBT organic sales grew 4% at the high end of the guidance range driven by both products and distribution. Within products we executed several large smart meter program rollouts. We saw continued strong demand for clean air and water products in China and we delivered nice growth within our Home's business in North America. The sales growth acceleration and the products segment were also encouraging. Distribution continued to perform well with strength in both Honeywell building solutions and global distributions. Order were up 5% up in building solutions and backlog was up double digit, so we expect growth in this business to continue. Segment margin for HBT was below our expectations coming in flat for the quarter, we continue to see benefits from previously funded restructuring and our ongoing productivity initiatives but those savings were offset by unfavorable sales mix in the quarter. We had higher sales of lower margin products in smart energy and environmental and energy solutions and lower volumes in security and fire. In Smart Energy we're conducting aggressive value for cost, value engineering efforts and at reducing manufacturing cost. But our results from those projects have not materialized as quickly as we anticipated. We also saw margin pressure from a regional perspective as we had plus 20% growth in China and over 40% in some of the HBT businesses in China. But we saw weaker sales growth in other more profitable regions. Clearly not the complete result we desire in HBT but we're encouraged by the sales momentum and we're taking actions to address the profit performance including better material productivity and stronger commercial execution. Performance, materials and technologies had another very strong quarter with organic sales up 6%, the guide was 3% to 5% and 200 basis points of margin expansion the guide was 170 to 200 basis points. There was encouraging news throughout the PMT business, overall UOP sales were up single digits, mid-single digits, orders were up 40% and the backlog is up double digits. There was continued strength in UOP Russell specifically in the modular gas processing applications with six new units booked this quarter. We booked Russell units so far, this year and more than double the amount booked in the first half of 2016. The orders in other segments of UOP support a continued ramp up in organic sales volumes in the third quarter. In HPS, sales were down slightly but margins expanded significantly due to commercial excellence and productivity. We saw lower backlog conversion in projects business and lower demand for process, measurement and control products in Europe. This was partially offset by significant growth in the short cycle software and service businesses. HPS orders were up about 15% and the backlog is growing nicely. Advanced materials had another quarter of double-digit growth and margin expansion enabled by CapEx investments we made for our Solstice line of low global warming products. In May we started up our largest Solstice facility and the world’s largest automotive refrigerant plant, in Louisiana, which is meeting continue demand for our Solstice YF products. Sales in our Solstice business nearly doubled in the quarter. Margin expansion came in at the high end of our guidance range driven by productivity net of inflation, results from our commercial excellence efforts and the divestiture of the former resins and chemicals business in third quarter of 2016. We’ll lap this impact in the fourth quarter and as I mentioned, margin performance was particularly strong in HPS and the advanced materials business. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, organic sales were up 1%, safety grew 2% on an organic basis driven by our high risk personal protection equipment and gas detection offerings. The general safety business has been improving sequentially for the past several quarters and also return to positive organic growth in the second quarter thanks to sale and marketing initiatives as well as investments in our sales force. Workflow solutions also grew high single digit in the quarter driven by high demand for our leading Voice Enabled Solutions and double-digit growth in the mobilizer software business driven by large win in Europe. In sensing IoT, demand for sensing controls remain robust particularly in high growth regions. Intelligrated continues to deliver impressive results driving more than 30% this quarter, compared to the second quarter of 2016 when it was not yet owned by Honeywell and this was driven by large project awards with key accounts. We continue to see strong orders and backlog growth in Intelligrated, which as a reminder will begin to be countered in Honeywell’s organic sales growth rates at the beginning of September. Productivity products was down in the quarter driven by decreased North American sales particularly for the mobility business. Although we anticipated the productivity products will improve in Q3 and Q4, our more aggressive product launches will occur in the fourth quarter and will likely continue to see softness in the mobility business until early 2018. STS segment margins while below our expectations, were still strong expanding 90 basis points excluding the first-year dilutive impact from M&A. This was primarily driven by continued productivity and restructuring benefits and was partially offset by investments in our commercial excellence as well as lower volumes in the mobility business. This shortfall for our expectations was primarily driven by lower than expected volumes in productivity products, accelerated investments related to the go-to-market strategy shift for the retail business as well as the new product launch investments I mentioned. Slide 6, is a walk of our earnings per share from second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017. In the second quarter of last year earnings from our 2016 divestitures were approximately $0.05 per share and we exclude those amounts from our 2016 baseline, consistent with our guidance framework. For comparison purposes, we have also normalized the tax rate for the second quarter 2016 to the 25% effective tax rate we initially assumed in our ‘17 guidance the impact of which was minor. Segment profit improvement resulted in $0.11 increase in earnings per share and all of our segments are contributing to the growth. Other below the line items principally lower interest expense as a result of the debt re-financings we did in 2016 as well as higher pension income accounted for $0.05 improvement to earnings per share bringing it to the $1.80 right at the high end of our guidance and up 10% year-over-year. As I mentioned earlier, our second quarter tax rate was lower than anticipated at 21.3%, principally the result of higher than anticipated stock option exercises which resulted in $0.09 earnings per share benefit. Conversely, the additional restructuring provisions that Darius and I mentioned reduced earnings per share by similar $0.09. On average, the payback of these projects is under two years and overall, they'll generate more than $150 million in run-rate cost savings. The pipeline of funded but unexecuted restructuring projects is robust at more than $300 million and will continue to drive returns as the projects are executed. Let's turn to slide 7, to discuss our expectations for the third quarter. In aerospace, reported sales are expected to be down 2% to 4% primarily due to the impact of the 2016 divestiture of the government service business and organic sales are expected to be flat to up 2%. Within commercial OE, we expect strong air transport deliveries for new platforms, partially offset by the impact of declining shipments on legacy platforms. We anticipate a tailwind from customer incentives which will improve our sales and segment margin in the third quarter. And as we've mentioned, we do not expect the recovery in to business jet OE market until closure to the late 2018 or 2019 timeframe, but we do anticipate modest growth in the business aviation aftermarket on continued R&O activity. We also expect continued strength in the air transport aftermarket driven by retrofits, modifications and upgrades, as well as by the typical seasonal demand. The commercial vehicle market should continue to recover, driving modest growth in transportation systems. Growth in light vehicle gas continue to be driven by demand in high growth regions. Aerospace margin should expand significantly this quarter driven by the OEM incentive tailwind, improving volumes and the continued benefit from prior year restructuring projects. In HPT, we anticipate organic sales of 1% to 3% and reported sales growth to be slightly lower so flat to up 2% due to the impacts of foreign currency translation. In the second quarter, there was gradual month-over-month sales growth improvement with good momentum exiting the quarter and we expect those strong trends to continue. Within the products business, we'll have additional large smart meter program rollouts principally in Europe and anticipate continued demand for air and water products in China. In distribution, the strong orders and backlog trends in building solutions combined with the commercial excellent initiatives and growing scale of our global distribution business will continue to contribute to growth. HPT segment margins are expected to expand 10 to 40 basis points driven by cost reductions from prior restructuring actions, ongoing commercial excellence and productivity initiatives. These will be partially offset by the continuation of the headwinds from the unfavorable product mix I mentioned earlier. In performance materials and technologies, sales are expected to be down 6% to 8% on a reported basis primarily due to the impact of the 2016 spin off of resins and chemicals business. But on an organic basis, we expect PMT to grow at 7% to 9% driven by conversion to sales of our strong backlog. UOP is expected to deliver more than 20% growth driven by strong licensing sales, continued strength in the modular gas processing business and demand for hydro processing catalyst. We expect strong growth across the entire HPS portfolio but primarily in our life cycle solutions and services, deal products and combustion businesses. In advance materials, we expect mid-single digit growth fueled principally by softness [ph]. PMT segment margins are expected to expand 130 to 170 basis points driven by commercial excellence, productivity and the favorable impact of the resident and chemicals divestiture. In safety and productivity solutions, sales are expected to be up 2% to 4% on an organic basis with reported sales increasing about 20% to the impact of sales from the Intelligrated acquisition. The fourth quarter is the first full quarter of Intelligrated organic sales. In the safety business, we expect further recovery in general safety products and a gradual improvement in the retail channel as our go to market transitioned from a distribution model to a direct sales model is executed. Growth in productivity will be driven by a robust order pipeline in the workflow solutions and continued strong demand for sensing controls. SPS margins are expected to expand by more than 150 basis points excluding the first-year dilutive impacts of M&A. This is driven primarily by benefit from last year restructuring projects, the higher volumes as well as the results from our ongoing productivity efforts. So, the for the company in total organic sales growth is anticipated to be 2% to 4% with 120 to 160 basis points of margin expansion leading to earnings per share of $1.70 to $1.75 that’s up 13% to 16% year-over-year again that excludes divestitures and its normalize to the third quarter tax rate of 26%. To the extent our tax rate is lower than 26% like we did in second quarter; we intend to undertake additional restructuring projects. Let's move to Slide 8, as we previously mentioned we're raising the low end of our full year EPS guidance by $0.10, so the new range is $7 to $7.10 that’s up 8% to 10% and again that excludes the divestitures and last year's debt refinancing charges. We're raising our full year sales guidance to $39.3 billion to $40 billion. Sales are now expected to be up 2% to 4% organic driven by higher volumes. In terms of our segments, PMT organic sales growth guidance is now 5% to 7% for the full year. SPS reported sales growth guidance is now 18% to 20% and the low end of aerospace's sales outlook is up slightly since the last quarter. From a segment margin expansion perspective, we remain within the initial guidance range of 70 to 110 basis points. We have lowered the full year margin guidance to both HPT and SPS and increased the margin guide for aero. In SPS we still expect strong operational margin performance consistent with our previous guidance. Overall there will be puts and takes across the businesses but we’re confident in our ability to deliver our full year margin expansion guidance and we remain focus on executing for the remainder of 2017. There is no change to our full year free cash flow guidance, the first half free cash flow performance was good, showing a 39% performance year-over-year and we're focused on continuous improvements in our execution across the organization. Let me turn to Slide 9 for a quick wrap up, we had a strong second quarter with higher than anticipated organic growth, continued margin expansion and good performance in all segments. The trends we've seen in the first half of the year are expected to continue leading to third quarter earnings per share that are expected to be up healthy double-digits. The entire organization is focused on executing various key priorities, which as you will recall include improving organic sales growth, maintaining our productivity rigor, becoming a best-in-class software industrial company and continuing to aggressively deploy capital all the while continues to make significant investments in Honeywell’s future. With that, let’s move Mark to the Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks, Tom. Both Darius and Tom are available to answer your questions. Cathy, could you please open the line for Q&A?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we’ll go first to Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
So just a question on the ACS related businesses, in HBT obviously the margins had been a little bit weak there and even in the HPS business, Darius can you talk maybe about the volume of kind of investments you guys are putting to work there. I mean any kind of color on -- is this -- I know investments usually are not discretionary per se given competitive pressures out there, but maybe some degree of magnitude around you know what your -- what kind of money you’re putting to work there, I think that’s first question. I have a quick follow-up.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, I think, clearly we are investing both in R&D [ph] and really reallocating our salesforce as well, because frankly, we’ve had some places where fundamentally we under invest and I think as a matter of fact I would say in our developed markets we under invest in terms of sales force and in HGR although we've had very aggressive investments, we also want to make sure that those investments are paying off and they are, because by the way as I look at what happened in HBT in Q2, part of the issue here is the mix and just to give you a couple of facts, our China, EVNS business was up 45% in Q2 and that’s a little bit part of our margin mix challenge that we had here in the quarter, but overall continue to be very bullish. The other thing is that we are working on this what I call kind of second tier value offerings for ENS and HSF as well as investing in our DIY platforms that’s how characterize most of investments.
Steve Tusa:
Is there a degree of kind of margin pressure that’s happening today that can kind of spin back into the numbers as growth come through? Is that kind of like of a step up or just anyway to somewhat quantify that?
Darius Adamczyk:
I mean think you know obviously [indiscernible]. I think that some of it is a mix and some of it’s we got to do a little bit better on couple of elements. You know the two places I found too is I think we have an opportunity to drive material products really. I have higher expectations there and the second one is around prices and commercial excellence, because I think frankly some of those areas that we haven’t done as well as we could have. Having said that, I think overall, it’s a pretty positive story, because as you look at our markets, we grew faster than our markets particularly on the residential side. So all-in-all, yeah, I’m slightly disappointing by the margin rate but we have some actions that Terence and his team are working and I don’t want to also forget about our 4% top line growth with tremendous growth in China just well north of 20% for HBT.
Steve Tusa:
And that could be an '18 story, is that improvement? '18 story?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And then one last quick one. One last one on free cash flow, normal seasonality kind of get to you north of where you're guiding to. Is there anything that's kind of reverses in the second half that suggested it shouldn't kind of track a more normal seasonal trend for the second half Tom?
Tom Szlosek:
No, I think we're fine on cash. When you draw the market at the end of the first half overall conversion is right aligned with where we were last year. But in the second half some of the initiatives that we've got going are going to drive that strong performance. Frankly, I think, we should do better than overall 5% to 7% and to your point on the first half growth. But we've got a little bit of a track record of not necessarily being entirely accurate on our cash forecast and so we want to be sufficiently conservative as we head into the second half, big effort for us.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, Steve I'll just point out that, we've had some headwinds both in the first half on cash [indiscernible] well north of $300 million and then we got some more coming in the second half. So that's why I think -- but by the way, that's how we selected on our outlook for the year, and that's why it may seem like we're being a little conservative, but we've got some real headwinds.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks, good morning guys. Just wanted to get back into HPC and I think the moving parts there were pretty well known. But obviously foreign securities a bit weaker versus particularly on average. So, I'm wondering do we have visibility on some improvement in that in the second half of the year. Is that more of an '18 story? And then the second part of that question is I think this is the first time in you've called China as a below feet average margin geography, maybe I'm wrong there, but what is the path towards getting China margins back towards feet average or better?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think as any kind of high growth age geography its slightly diluted to the overall average. And obviously when you blend it in at a 45% growth, it has an impact. In terms of margins, we think we're with those pretty aggressively appearances all over this both on the productivity side as well as the commercial excellence as we have some opportunity with some new products coming. So, I expect some level of recovery and we are going to grow margins in that business this year. We're probably a little bit aggressive initially and that's why we had some puts and takes in the overall Honeywell portfolio. That happened to be one of the takes. But we expect growth there, the margin growth for 2017 and further enhancements for 2018. And I can also tell you that, a good portion of the structuring funds that we allocated in Q2 went to HPC.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, that's helpful. And then a question for Tom on the hedging and given the weakness in the dollar we have seen continuing through 3Q. So, the way I understand, it's helpful to topline, it's harmful to EBIT so there is a bit of margin pressure. So just looking at your unchanged segment guidance for the year, I'm wondering if volumes on margin has been offset by another threshold FX or may be some material but maybe you can just clean that up, and then where do you stand on hedging for '18.
Tom Szlosek:
So just for 2017, Nigel it will be more or less about three quarters are more locked in on FX rates and as you know our hedging program is intended when you consider all the aspects of it, the net result is to hedge the operating income and not necessarily the topline, definitely not the topline. So, our top line will definitely flow as the FX flows and so, if you see the euro strengthening as you have over the last few weeks, our topline should improve. However, our margin rates, our margin dollars are more or less locked in from also the major currencies as for the year given the hedging that we did at the beginning of the year. So, if you start to see a strengthening or weakening second half that’s not going to have a material impact on our margin rates themselves given that we've had to lock the rates in. So, 2018 we're taking a similar approach, we don’t necessarily disclose all the positions but we're keeping a strong eye on the currencies where we have major exposures euro of being a big one and taking risk off the table as we see the opportunities arise.
Operator:
We will now take a question from Jeffrey Sprague of Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague :
Couple of questions, first on Intelligrated and the growth that you're seeing there, would this all still be associated with what they had in the pipeline and the order book at the time of the deal or is there some kind of Honeywell benefit that’s starting to show up in your results, that’s the first question.
Darius Adamczyk:
The answer to your question is no, this was not there at the time of the deal, the pipeline is grown substantially and certainly there is an inherent Honeywell benefit, I mean frankly the Honeywell brand is really well known throughout of the industrial and logistics world and its benefited from the current relationships that we've had and as you recall the premise behind this business going into SPS is our scanning and mobility business its strongest vertical is transportation logistics. So, there is a lot of benefit in terms of cross selling and leveraging that sales force to generate leads for Intelligrated, so we're certainly seeing the benefits from that and that pipeline Intelligrated is extraordinarily robust.
Jeffrey Sprague :
Right and then just on speaking about PNC margins and a lot going on there with you HPS, but we're just thinking about how slows this ramp. Can you give us some sense of how full utilized the new factory or factories are and kind of what kind of operating leverage we could expect flowing as you ramp up post this year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, the new factory, the Apollo factory that Tom referred to, it's not fully utilized yet, that just came online, it started up in May. So, I think about 50% like utilization which is kind of normal at this stage because it's still ramping up. There is more leverage there to come and we’re going to be shifting our supply a bit from an externally sourced and so on to more internally produced obviously that’s been accretive which is good news. So, the short story here is that there is more leverage to comment. As you saw Jeff really, really nice story in TMT, I mean it’s both in terms of orders, leverage under revenue and Solstice continues to deliver. And strong backlog too, I mean we had a nice backlog, we had in the second half of the year in all the businesses.
Jeffrey Sprague :
Right. And just one another quick one, Tom, can you just put a finer point on what the variances Q3 versus Q3 and the aero incentives either in dollars or margin?
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, it’s about I say 50 basis points margin impact year-over-year and as you know that the 2000 overall incentives for the year are going to be probably 40 to 60 basis points down on most of that coming in second half and most of that being in the third quarter. So, this is where you will see the biggest impact and that’s why those aerospace margin rates for the third quarter will be so robust. I mean they’re already robust without the incentives. I mean but up to 300 plus of improvement is pretty strong. I think the other [indiscernible].
Operator:
Right now, we’ll go to Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
So, hey Tom may be following up on that point right there on the OEM incentives, it’s interesting, when you take a look at your organic growth guidance for 3Q in aero, the surprise, that it wasn’t a little bit higher because you do have the benefit from OEM and you have a pretty easy comp. So, is there any what -- what’s kind of offsetting that in 3Q or is it just kind of like a conservatives 3Q guide?
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, I think we want to build up some momentum here, we had a strong commercial aftermarket 5% in the second quarter and we kind of want to see that momentum continued. I mean that, that we sort of factored in low single digits for third quarter, I think the defense in space we got a comparable quarter-over-quarter. The incentives do come through and if they do -- I mean that they will come through, if the aftermarket comes through like it did in the second quarter we should be definitely at the high end of that 2% organic if not pushing higher.
Darius Adamczyk:
Joe, I would like to just add, I think the mix is such that we kind of know the visibility on [Indiscernible] we know what that looks like and so when we are actually getting much more into the shorter cycle business for aftermarket especially on the VGA side. So frankly we don’t have as much visibility as we normally in aerospace, because that’s what we are counting and as Tom pointed out we want to kind of see that rate of aftermarket activity both on the ATR and DJ side maintain, let the guidance be where it is.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. Okay. And then maybe just on up on Steve’s question from just a little earlier, but asking it slightly differently. I guess if you think about all the restructuring actions that you guys have taken the pull forward in 3Q last year, it is now restructuring this year in 2Q. It’s nice to see the growth uptick, but I guess maybe if you could just kind of comment on what you're seeing competitively in your ability to hold the cost benefits into your margins and how much you're actually having to utilize to actually offset potentially a competitive pricing environment. I think any color around that would be helpful.
Darius Adamczyk:
Sure. I mean it's a couple of points. The first one is, we definitely are seeing the benefits of restructuring come through. And that's certainly there. I think might be your questions talk more on HPC and yeah, it is a competitive environment. However, we also have a very strong competitive context position there. And we're seeing that in our growth rates in particularly in high growth regions but also in the end. So, part of its mixed, but part of it is we got an opportunity to do a little bit better, like I said on a mature productivity side, commercial excellence and so on as well as some new product launches that we're doing and kind of offering having the Honeywell premiums here as well as the values here, as well as expansion DIY. So, there is some now help things that we're embarking upon and were started in Q2 and I expect to see some benefit of that towards the end of this year and even more so next year. So yeah, it's a competitive environment, but given our brand, product positioning, overall value to customers, I'm bullish and how we're going to perform here.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, thanks guys.
Operator:
And now we will go to Peter [indiscernible].
Unidentified Analyst:
Tom, you mentioned briefly on PNP on the backlog. Do you ex kind sold this, how is backlog holding up or what kind of visibility do you have? Can you give us little more color there?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, it's really strong. When you look at both HPS as well as UOP, I mean they are both north of 10% -- I'm sorry, in total they're north of 10%, UOP is pushing 20%, HPS as I said strong momentum. And we think that’s going to continue. When you look at the character what's in UOP, its particularly encouraging because you see it across all of their product lines which means that it's not just an aftermarket where getting catalyst sales, but we're getting the full gamut of things. The engineering, the new projects, the equipment. And that means that there is more investing going on than we had seen over the course of last year. So, the good prospects and good character comprehensive character backlog across the UOP businesses. And HPS, same thing. I mean even more skewed towards the higher profit service side for HPS. I mean that’s pushing 10% up, and then one reason the HPS backlog isn't where UOP one is, in terms of double digits is that we've been carrying and we've been very successful in some of these megaprojects in HPS. And as you execute those and they came out of the backlog obviously you see the impact. Those projects carry a lot of third-party content however. They're not necessarily the most profitable. But they do an installed base and we find them overall to be very attractive long-term. So, when I look at HPS backlog even though it's mid-single digits growth, the character of it from a profitability perspective is quite different than that you would thought a year ago, or you would have seen it a year ago.
Darius Adamczyk:
If I could just add even more color because we're very pleased with what we're seeing there, if you think about backlog for all of the PMT up double digit, think about order rates for PMT for Q2 up north of 20%. And the best part Q3 outlook, high single digit outlook for order rate. So, we’re really, really pleased how that business is performing and this is going to get maintain and that time momentum is out there for us.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thanks, and just a quick unrelated follow up, on the [indiscernible] weakness, Tom it just sounds like it's been a lingering issue for a long time but it sounds like things have gotten worse on the OE side? Any color there would be appreciated.
Tom Szlosek:
No, I mean, when you look to go back 18 months or couple of years, you're seeing heavy double-digit declines on the DGA OE, remember in the fourth quarter we're --second half we’re down over 30% on the OE side. Those declines have moderated, was mid-single digit decline in the second quarter for the BGA OE business and we kind to expected to moderate around that. I mean the orders can be a little bit lumpy and the timing doesn’t necessary correlate to what our customers would report for their shipments. But I'm not going to say we've seen the bottom but the rates have declined are significantly less than what they were a year ago.
Operator:
We will now move to Andrew Kaplowitz of Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz :
You did make an acquisition in Q2 but acquisition activity has still been relatively quiet and you’ve talked about valuations in the past being pretty high and maybe waiting for tax reform. Do you expect to have a big ramp up in M&A activity in the second half of this year and if not, do you end up buying that more stock? I mean how should we look at capital allocation in the second half of the year?
Darius Adamczyk:
All right I would say that the pipeline is very active and probably has three to five things we're looking at very, very seriously. But, we're going to continue to be cautious buyers and I think part of it is just the discipline around purchase price, there is certainly things out there that we're very interested in but sales have to come at the right price. So hopefully, I cannot guarantee what will happen, but hopefully will have some additions to the portfolio in the second half, we certainly have some interesting properties that we’re closely examining. But it also has to happen at the right price, so we will see what happens and we're not -- I think the tax environment regime, I think there is more uncertainty in that now than may be even before, so I can't let that sort of rule the business and I'm not going to hold that up, I've indicated before we have a slight reference for overseas M&A, versus domestic, but certainly we'll look at anything. So, we'll see what happens. And then in terms of share buyback as I indicated depending upon what happens on the M&A front and we’re going to be looking to add as a lever as well. But I'm not sure we really exhaust those possibilities first and I'm still hoping we will have a little more clarity on the tax front, maybe even before the end of this quarter.
Tom Szlosek:
And Andy just to add for a little bit of dollar on that, you remember Gary has said at the Investor Day that from a capital allocation perspective, U.S. we would look to deploy $5 billion this year, between dividends, share buybacks, and M&A. The dividend is more or less understood to be about 2 out of that 5, that means $3 billion between share buybacks and M&A. So far, we done about $1 billion of share buyback and so we’ve got a couple of billion less and Gary says we are going to watch that. So, that’s the $5 billion in the U.S. outside the U.S. and as we said at a time there is close to $10 billion of capacity is ready to be put to use immediately, let alone excluding even the leveraging capability. So, I think we are on track on both fronts but I don’t think there is an impending rush of deal that you are going to see after we get off this call. So, we’ll keep you guys in the loop.
Andrew Kaplowitz :
All right. Thanks for that, guys. I mean there is commentary around your productivity products business suggest that and maybe your new product rollouts there have been maybe slower than you thought or at least not quite as effective. Can you talk about your confidence level on turning around that business as you turn the portfolio here?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think the one thing that’s important as you think about SPS, I think it's important to put in context where the issue is, the issue is in one business and one segment of the business called mobility and it’s even more regional than that which is called North America. As I pointed out, the issue on the last call which is you know sort of our array of products in the Android, at the Android operating system, frankly we’re not, where we need to be in terms of our range and offering. We did launch a good product in Q2 which will help I don’t think it’s the full solution. The team has very robust launch plans, but frankly those won’t happen until about Q4 of this year. So, we’re expecting some improvement in the second half but really full improvement will really happen in 2018 as all those products come to the market. Although, I will say, we are encouraged by the product launch that they did in May, we don’t really have a lot of that revenue yet generated from those offerings.
Andrew Kaplowitz :
Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And now we will go to Andrew Obin of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin:
Good morning, good to see a little bit of green on my screen today. Just a follow up question on China, is the mix in China changing, because historically my understanding is that China was more profitable, but you have been talking about a big push in consumer area in China. Is that something that is impacting margin?
Darius Adamczyk:
China is still very attractive and very profitable. The product segments that happen to do especially in HPT this quarter was sort of a mix which is -- we mentioned slightly delimited with the overall HPT rate. But overall, we are very, very pleased with the China profitability and overall on a Honeywell basis, it compares to our overall margins and where we are seeing the kind of growth we are seeing, that’s a great thing for us and we are very bullish there and I think, if I could point to a market that I was extraordinarily pleased with in Q2, that would be it, our China growth was spectacular.
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah just to accentuate that a little bit, the GDP -- whatever the right GDP is for China say its 7%, I mean every one of our business was well north of that. Aerospace is doing fantastic on the [indiscernible] side, TS has got new launches taking advantage of the quality opportunity with their HPT and a lot of new products particularly air and water up double digit, safety and productivity up double digit, and PMT up double digit, I mean you'll see HPS in fact all of them were just outstanding in China. We get more momentum there, and we leverage the capacity and we have from a production perspective the profitability continues to grow. And it's already very healthy.
Andrew Obin:
And China and his team have always had a very and I think Honeywell have always have a very sophisticated view of China. We're getting a lot of questions from investors about Chinese growth after this big party congress they're going to have in October, November. What are your guys sort of framework for growth in the first half of 2018? Some people tell us growth will slow down, some people tell us they'll try to save face and so the new team will see good growth as well. What are your insights?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah obviously it's very important for the Chinese economy to do pretty well until that November timeframe. But overall, we continue to be bullish on China. I think whether this pace is maintained or something slightly lower than that, I don't think that changes our calculus as it relates to China because we expect growth there to be both five times what it is in some of our DM markets. And we're showing those kinds of numbers. And by the way, as Tom talked double digits, its not10%, I think as a number that's well 2X times that number. So, we have the right momentum, we have the right presence, we're very comfortable with our strategies in terms of what we're doing [indiscernible]. and I still think it's maybe early innings for us in terms of building out our China business and actually using it more as a hub for a lot of the other economies. So, I continue to be optimistic whether it's going to get better or slightly worse. The business changed our investment profile and our bullishness overall on the market.
Operator:
And now we'll take a question from Julian Mitchell of Credit Suisse.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Just a first question around the transport piece within aerospace. The growth there was around 1% or 2% in the first half. I think just in commercial vehicles recovering a bit, but the automotive side maybe softening. So maybe talk a little bit about what you're seeing in automotive specifically, how you think that plays out in the second half. And how you're thinking more broadly about the growth outlook for transport?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. Have to about automotive. Again, automotive grew, that business grew for us this past quarter. It was bit of an interesting mix, diesel was down and was down high single digits, but more than offset by growth in gasoline, growth in commercial vehicles and high growth regions really, really pick off. I talked about China again, but again a great story, you talk about double digit growth in China. We grew over 40% there, in Q2. So, a really nice growth rate and we're really well positioned globally, so even though some of our markets in U.S. and Europe were down slightly they were more than offset by our presence and our growth in HGR, so really nice positioning of that business and we continue to be very, very bullish on its outlook. Even a country like Brazil grew well double digit, so nice story.
Tom Szlosek:
The other thing I would add to that, Julian is the -- some of this is just timing related as we complete platforms or our customer are OE customers, discontinued platforms that we're on, that can have a short-term impact on rates and we've seen a couple of platforms that come to completion in the second quarter but as you know our win rates, our new platforms for the business has been in an all-time high, I mean we think we're pushing 50% of the win rate on new platform. So that will start to come through as well, so I wouldn’t read into the 1% as indication of any challenge, we're in pretty good shape on transportation.
Julian Mitchell:
Understood thank you, and then my second quarter was really beyond SPS and sort of the platform outlook there within warehouse automation and logistics specifically. You had Intelligrated now within the portfolio of the nine months or so. You think you're in a position now having integrated it well today to further M&A in that warehouse arena or you are pretty satisfied with the market share and the offering you have right now.
Darius Adamczyk:
We certainly like the space, if there is the right acquisition there, we have we certainly look at it, it's an interesting market for us, we do have a strong presence between our scanning and mobility business, between Intelligrated, even our industrial safety and safety gears as that we sell into that market although together and create a very coherent and valuable proposition for our customers. But certainly, look at some other segments, there is something of interest there, so we will see what happens.
Tom Szlosek:
I think the warehouse automation space is going to be really nice one for us to continue to invest. And you got the building blocks but there are lot of both agencies geographically as well as software wise that really, we can enhance the model with. So, we're excited by what we're seeing.
Operator:
We will now take a question from John Inch of Deutsche Bank.
John Inch :
Is there a way to qualify and may be quantify possibly the impact of sort of relatively stable crude prices here, do you guys have a decent amount of direct and indirect exposures and I'm just curious if, how Tom and Darius you would think about that or articulate that?
Darius Adamczyk:
There is a lot of directional movement, one-minute U.S. inventory was down and you know today not such good news there is talk about Saudi holding back production, every day there seems to be sort of a different data point which has an impact on oil prices. But you know the punch line for us is that, something north of 40 and if we get some stability like we've had then things are fine, if price of oil drops below 40 and stays there for a bit that would concern me. You know we’ll see what happens, there’s is a lot of moving pieces between continued expansion of the U.S. shale production, between what OPAC is going to do with, what’s Libya and Nigeria, what are they producing, what’s Iran going to do. So, there is a lot of moving pieces here, it’s hard to say for exactly what decisions are going to be made. I think this next OPAC is going to be very, very important one, in which case we can set some directionality. But overall as of right now and as you can see from our order rates for both HPS and UOP, the market is good and the activity is very good, very good second quarter and we are bullish on the third quarter as well.
Tom Szlosek:
I think those portfolios have proven to be fairly resistant to massive movement in the oil prices. And what I mean by that is, if you look at what the nature of where we participate, I mean we are in the midstream and downstream, all of exclusively in the downstream for UOP so refining and petrochemicals. I mean those are areas that stood up very well, in the when oil was down at all-time low. HPS a little bit more midstream, but still I think the positioning of our portfolio makes them fairly resistant, I mean not immune, not trying to put that out there, but [indiscernible].
John Inch :
Yeas, and Tom you went through them when oil was crashing right, you went through a fairly elaborate exercise to sort of basically pitch for the resilience of portfolio, I’m just trying to understand we had semi-reasonably stable oil prices and we’re seeing some sort of net tailwind that maybe if oil stays here anniversaries next year so the benefit you’re getting this year maybe dissipates a little next year. I don’t know, I’m just trying to put this into a context, that’s all?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, I mean I would see that where the markets comeback this year, it’s unquestionable, but I don’t think it’s come back in a big kind of fashion, I would say the HPS and UOP teams are just doing very, very well in terms of their performance. I mean the kind of booking rates that they’re getting and we’re seeing, I haven’t seen for anybody else, so I am very pleased with how they're performing but I definitely think that provided the oil price stay stable or maybe upticks there could be a bit more tailwinds here to come. So, I’m optimistic and the pipeline that we have in terms of our [indiscernible] makes me optimistic. Now that could change, but right now, I’m fairly bullish on the market.
John Inch :
Yes, makes sense. So, then just as a follow-up Darius the portfolio review, are we still, no one has asked about it, you didn’t really talk about in your prepared remarks. Are on track for some sort of a presentation announcement, I think you said by this summer, and I just want to clarify, it's not going to be in the last week of August is it, I mean by summer do you mean, when you get back from Labor Day?
Darius Adamczyk:
I just want to make sure everybody is on holiday. We are still targeting what I said was late summer, early fall, we are very much tracking to that and that’s what I anticipate to have some further clarity here on the portfolio.
John Inch :
Right, so don’t change the date and time just yet.
Darius Adamczyk:
No, I think it stays the last week of August. Relax, the beach is nice.
Operator:
And for one final question that will from Gautam Khanna of Cowen & Company.
Gautam Khanna:
Yes, thank you. Many of my questions have been answered. But I did want to ask at Paris Air Show and over the last couple of quarters, Boeing has talked a lot about penetrating the service business and they cited avionics as one of the areas that they're trying to get more share of in the aftermarket. And I just wanted to get your opinion on what form do you think this take, so this is more of an opportunity or is it a risk for Honeywell longer term? And how do you guys approach this potential change in the marketplace?
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah. I'm not really sure yet, because we haven't seen some of those planes, yet we're allowed by Boeing. Boeing is a very well respected within the Honeywell as a customer, partner of Boeing, a number of things, they're great customer and we're going to do whatever we need to do to support them as a customer. In terms of exactly what's going to happen and how they're going to be going after their services business I think that's yet to be find out. So, to me there isn’t that clear whether it's an opportunity or a threat. I will tell you that our connected aircraft which I think is something about [ph] to Boeing and a lot of the other OEMs. It's something that's picking up pace very, very quickly. I talked about the connected ATU in my opening and that's giving tremendous traction of customers. And by the way that's only the beginning in terms of our offerings for connected aircraft. We have many, many more coming. So, I think that that's complementary towards Boeing -- and some of the OEMs. So overall, I'm very positive on our continued strong relationship with Boeing going forward.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen that concludes today's Question-and-Answer Session. At this time, we like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for any additional or closing comments.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. The second quarter was another strong one for us with strong organic growth, margin expansion and continued free cash flow momentum which is up nearly 40% on a year-over-year basis. And we're able to undertake some sizable restructuring projects that will benefit our future performance. It was not a perfect quarter and we have several opportunities that are well within our control to improve. There is a lot more upside for Honeywell and we'll continue our focus on improving organic growth, maintaining our productivity vigor, becoming a best-in-class software industrial company and aggressively deploying capital. We also remain committed to investing in our future and we're looking forward to sharing more great results in October. On behalf of the entire Honeywell team we wish you a pleasant and relaxing summer.
Operator:
Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen that does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time. And have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - IR Darius Adamczyk - CEO Tom Szlosek - CFO
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley Andrew Obin - Bank of America Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Company Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Howard Rubel - Jefferies Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. And I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Mark Macaluso:
Thank you, Dennis. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's first quarter 2017 earnings conference call. With me here today are President and CEO, Darius Adamczyk, and Senior Vice President and CFO Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements in this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance and our Annual Report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the first quarter, highlight some exciting accomplishments across the portfolio and share our guidance for the second quarter of '17. And as always, we will leave ample time for your questions at the end. So with that, I'll turn the call over to President and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you, Mark. And good morning everyone. Today, we reported our very strong start to 2017. We met or in most cases exceeded our guidance ranges and I'm pleased with our results in the first quarter. We recorded earnings per share of $1.66 normalized at our expected full year tax rate. This is $0.02 above the high end of the guidance we’ve provided in January, excluding divestitures and normalizing for tax EPS was up 11% versus 2016 or 10% on a reported basis. Organic sales were up more than 2% and we recorded double-digit revenue growth in advance materials with performance material technologies on demand for our Solstice product line and we saw continued strengthen UOP as the oil and gas end markets improve. In home and building technologies, our global distribution business continued to outpace the market, while the products business generated strong results at 3% organic growth. In Aerospace, we have strong performance in the aftermarket, particularly in air transport and robust repair and overhauled activity, and in Safety and Productivity Solutions we saw growth in most of the businesses, particularly noteworthy performance exhibited in Workflow Solutions, expensing in IoT as well as Industrial Safety. We expanded segment margins by 70 basis points, we’re delivering high value offerings to our customers and our execution is improving as the ongoing benefits of our HOS Gold operating systems materialize. We also continue to optimize our cost structure that I highlighting our March Investor Day. Driven by productivity initiatives and the restructuring actions we took through 2016. Driving segment margin improvement continues to be an ongoing focus for Honeywell. We delivered significant improvement in free cash flow year-over-year, largely driven by improved working capital performance. Free cash flow performance will continue to be a key priority for Honeywell. We have -- our new level of focused on working capital at all levels across the company and we expect we will drive improved free cash flow conversion in every business. Given the strong performance, we are raising the low end of our full year EPS guidance by $0.05 to $6.90 to $7.10 and reaffirming our 2017 organic sales, segment margin and free cash flow guidance. We are encouraged by the first quarter growth and execution, but are taking on tempered approach to our forward outlook given the potential volatility in our end markets and limited view of the year at this time. Each of our business had significant commercial achievements in the first quarter. On Slide 3, I’d like to highlight some of the them. In Aerospace, together with Airbus we announced that our auxiliary power unit is now standard equipment on the A320 family of aircraft replacing a competitors APU as the base option. Airbus selected Honeywell because of our APU's superior reliability and the fuel savings capability. In addition, both Japan Airlines and India's Jet Airways announced that they are using our GoDirect fuel efficiency software. Fuel consumption typically accounts for as much as 20% to 40% of our airlines operating cost and GoDirect can help customers to save more than 2% annually. In Home and Building Technologies, we launched MAXPRO Cloud for connected buildings. MAXPRO provides streamlined video and access management to our customers that manage multiple buildings. In addition, Honeywell Building Solutions announced contracts to improve energy efficiency at 21 U.S. Federal Aviation and Administration Facilities and at the U.S. Air Force based in Los Angeles, as well as airport wins in emerging regions including Turkey and Singapore. In Performance Materials and Technologies, UOP Technologies and Honeywell process solutions controls were selected in China for one of the largest crude to chemicals complexes in the world. In addition, UOP will provide the process technology for the largest Oleflex units in Europe. And UOP hydro treating catalyst will be used by Wantong Petrochemical to produce cleaner burning ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel, without a cost re-modification of its existing hydrotreating unit. As you will hear shortly, the orders thus far for PMT have been very strong, our customers recognize the value of Honeywell's technologies and this is allowing us to win the marketplace especially in China. In Safety and Productivity Solutions, we introduced our AutoCube, a 3D dimensioning system that helps customers instantly capture the volume of parcels to enable space optimization in the volume base pricing. Safety and Productivity Solutions also won four prestigious international forum IF Design Awards recognizing our product design focus in the Honeywell user experience. As you know driving organic sales growth is one of the my key priorities, I'm pleased with the results we saw in the first quarter, investing in development of new products, breakthrough initiatives and commercial excellence will help us to accelerate our momentum. With that, I'll turn it over to Tom to discuss our financial results in more detail.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks, Darius. I'm on Slide 4. As Darius mentioned, we delivered more than 2% organic sales growth this quarter. Now truth be told, we were actually within inches of 3%, but it did come out at 2%. All of our segments were at or above the high end of the sales guidance we provided back in January, so a strong start from a growth perspective. Segment profit was up 8%, excluding divestitures and segment margins expanded 70 basis points from 2016. This accounted for the bulk of the EPS expansion as you'll see in a minute. The segment profit growth was driven by sales improvement, our ongoing productivity initiatives that benefits from the significant restructuring programs that were funded in 2016. And overall frontend commercial excellence. Reported earnings per share of $1.71 were up 10%, this $1.71 includes a $0.05 benefit from a lower than anticipated tax rate. So for proper comparability and to remove all tax favorability from our results, we’ve normalized 2016 to reflect the expected 2017 full year tax rate and to eliminate the $0.05 from 2016, relating to the divested businesses. On that basis, EPS was up 11% or a $1.66 and that’s as Darius said, $0.02 above the high end of the guidance range. Free cash flow performance was also encouraging in the quarter, as Darius mentioned, the entire organization at all levels is focused on our working capital performance. We’re breaking down our order to cash processes into myriad of sub-segments and we’re systematically measuring and improving the cycle time of each of those sub-segments. We’re adjusting incentives to foster more improvement in working capital and we have a standard operating cadence that culminates in a monthly review with Darius and me by each business. There is still much to do in this area, and while it is still early in the year we’re encourage by our progress so far. So, overall a very strong start to 2017, but still a lot of opportunity for further improvement over the next three quarters. Let’s move to Slide 5 and discuss each of the segments. In Aerospace, we finished the quarter above the high end of our first quarter sales guidance range, driven primarily by a strong performance in the air transport aftermarket. We saw an uplift in spares demand and strength and repair and overhaul activities with our airline customers particularly in the sales, repairs, modifications and upgrades, that resulted in high single-digit growth rate in the APR aftermarket. The aftermarket in business and generally aviation was roughly flat with stronger than anticipated RNO and connectivity revenue, largely offset by a decline in spares. Our OE performance was as expected with volumes to our air transport customers up slightly on the strength of A350 shipments, offset by declines in business and general aviation. Defense sales were roughly flat with the strong organic sales growth in our core U.S. and International Defense businesses offset by space and commercial helicopter weakness. And there was continued strength in light vehicle gas turbo penetration particularly driven by new launches in Europe and china. As well there was some encouraging signs in the on-highway commercial vehicle market globally and most notably in China and in Europe. Aerospace segment margin expansion in the quarter of 90 basis points also exceeded the high-end of our guidance. Driven by productivity, commercial excellence and the favorable impact of the divestiture of the government services business in 2016. Overall a very strong start to 2017 for Aerospace. Home and Building Technologies generated organic sales growth of 3% driven by a strong performance in environmental and energy solutions, security and fire and our global distribution businesses. Growth in the China business and HBT was nearly 15% this quarter, that was led by the clean air and water product portfolios and ENS [ph]. We continue to see momentum in the residential real-estate market in China, anticipate continued infrastructure investment that will help to drive future growth. Across HBT there was gradual sales improvement over the quarter with decent exit momentum. Segment margin while below our expectation was still quite strong at 70 basis points improvement. Extending from our ongoing productivity initiatives and the restructuring actions taken in the second half of 2016. The mix dynamics of sales in the quarter were bit less favorable than we anticipated. Performance materials and technologies had a very strong quarter. Sales up 5% on an organic basis, margins expanded 260 basis points and orders were up double-digits. The performance was led by advanced materials where a softer sales growth exceeded a 150% on an organic basis, enabled by the capital investments we've made over the past several years. Sales in UOP were up 3% organic led by gas processing, there continues to be increasing interest in domestic modular units in particular. In the first quarter alone we signed 6 new deals in the U.S. for pre-engineered cryogenic plants that separate natural gas liquids. This compares favorably to the 12 units we had for all of 2016 including 2 in the first quarter. Growth in the catalyst business was at low-single digits driven by new Oleflex Units. The orders in UOP were up over 15% in the first quarter segments days for continued performance in this business. Sales and process solutions were roughly flat on an organic basis. We had healthy customer adoption of our insurance 360 service offering and good growth in our lifecycles solutions and services business. This was offset by slower sales in our large projects business. Orders in HPS were up nearly 10% on an organic basis. The margin expansion in PMT was driven by productivity, commercial excellence initiatives and the impact of the spin-off of the former resins and chemicals business in 2016. So all in all great results to PMT and encouraging forward indicators across all of its business units. Finally, in SPS organic sales were up 3% exceeding the high-end of our guidance range. Industrial safety is the largest business within SPS grew 4% on organic basis driven by our high risk and gas detection offerings. There was also a significant growth in our workflow solutions business due to strong demand and improved supply chain execution. Growth in our IoT business was also strong with good performance in a number of regions and Intelligrated grew in excess of 20% this quarter compared to the first quarter of 2016 when it was not own by Honeywell and this was driven by large products in a number of key accounts. Excluding the first year's dilutive impact from M&A, SPS segment margins expanded more than 300 basis points driven by continued productivity and restructuring benefits and the conversion on the strong sales volume. We’re encouraged by the trends that we saw in the first quarter in SPS and in the rest of the portfolio. Slide 6 contains a walk of our EPS from the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2017. In the first quarter of last year earnings from our 2016 divestitures were $0.05 and we exclude those amounts from the 2016 baseline, consistent with the 2017 earnings guidance framework we provided. For comparison purposes, as I said earlier we’ve also normalized the tax rate for the first quarter of 2016 for the expected 2017 full year tax rate and this effect was minor as you can see. In the first quarter of 2017, the segment improvement I highlighted for each business accounted for $0.12 of the year-over-year improvement in earnings per share. Below the line items and a slightly lower share count contributed $0.04 this quarter, bringing our 2017 EPS excluding benefits from the lower tax rate to $1.66, which is that $0.02 beat to the $1.64 high end of our first quarter guidance. EPS increased 11% year-over-year on this basis and for the full year we expect our share count to be consistent with the 772 million shares we projected in January. Regarding tax, our planned tax rate for the quarter was about 25%, but the actual rate was 22.7%, with the difference contributing an additional $0.05 of EPS growth resulting a reported EPS of $1.71. Our expectations that the effective tax rate in quarters two, three and four will be at or above 25% and to the extent that change will provide an update. Let's turn to Slide 7 to discuss what we’re seeing in our end markets heading into the second quarter. Last quarter, we told you about some encouraging trends in our oil and gas businesses and those have continued this quarter. The combined UOP and HPS book to bill ratio was strong at 1.15 and UOP orders as I've said earlier were up over 15% driven by our gas processing business. The domestic rustle businesses has outpaced our expectations as the demand for non-gas liquid separation technologies strengthened in the U.S. There are also more orders for licensing which is typically one of the first indicators that the oil and gas cycle is restarting. The activity in UOP China has been particularly strong and we’ve got a number of key projects which will allow us to leverage the capacity investments we’ve made over the past two years. Within Home and Building Technologies in the second quarter, we anticipate several large smart meter project rollouts in Europe and better backlog conversions in the Americas. Smart meter business came to Honeywell as part of the Elster acquisition and it continues to perform well. Overall the short cycle demand in the commercial and residential segments continues to be robust. The aviation market continues to be resilient with the high end single digit growth driven by spares demand and repairs modification and upgrades in the air transport and regional business. This is supported by the outlook for continued flight hour growth of 4% to 5% in air transport and regional. In the business in general aviation market, we had strong demand in the repair at overhaul business, but weaker performance in spares, driven by a continued decline in maintenance events. We expect continued aftermarkets strength heading into the second quarter, with the airlines business growing faster than BGA. Flight hours in BGA are likely to remain flat to down in 2017. Our connectivity business grew double digits in the first quarter and will continue to be a source of strength for aftermarket revenues. We were encouraged by the increased activity in our businesses that serve the industrial sector. Our industrial safety business was up mid-single digits driven by demand for gas detection in high risk safety equipment. The backlog and pipeline of future orders at Intelligrated continues to be strong and we are encouraged about the prospects for 2017. As planned, we expect lower shipments and fewer engine maintenance events than 2016 for business jets. We continue to plan conservatively and do not anticipate a recovery until the 2018, 2019 time frame. And we on Slide 9 with a preview of the second quarter. Aerospace sales are expected to be in the flat to down 2% range on an organic basis with continued strength from the ATR aftermarket and solid demand in the U.S. core defense. In transportation systems, we anticipate continued recovery in the commercial vehicles business combined with growth in light vehicle gas applications especially in China. These benefits will be offset by the ongoing secular softness in the BGA and space markets. We expect reported sales will be down 5% to 7% due to the 2016 divestiture of the government service business. Aero margin expansion would be driven primarily by the benefits from our 2016 restructuring projects and a stronger mix of aftermarket growth. Importantly, the second quarter is expected to be the last quarter of the headwind associated with OEM incentives. In the second half they become an approximate 70 million tailwind to sales and segment margin as compared to an approximate 25 million headwind in the first half. In Home and Buildings technologies reported sales are expected to be down 1% to up 1% due to the impacts of foreign currency translation. With organic sales growth up 2% to 4% driven by the large Elster smart meter rollouts, I mentioned earlier. In the other products business we expect continued contributions from new products introductions like our T-series thermostat and do it yourself security products which were on display earlier this month at IFC web [ph]. In China, we again expect double-digit growth driven by continued air and water demand and growth in security and fire systems associated with large real-estate projects. We also expect continued strength in our global distribution business and stronger growth in building solutions. HPTs segment margins are expected to expand 70 basis points to 100 basis points driven by cost reductions from prior restructuring actions commercial excellence in ongoing productivity initiatives partially offset by product mix headwinds associated with strength of our distribution sales. In PMT, we anticipate continued strong performance across the group with 3% to 5% organic sales growth. Advanced materials is expected to be up significantly and continued demand for Solstice's lower global warming products. UOP improving oil and gas markets and the strong backlog will drive continued growth, primarily in licensing and equipment sales. We also expect modest growth in the process solutions business driven primarily by our short-cycle software and service offering. On a reported basis PMT sales are expected to be down year-over-year due to the spin-off of resins and chemicals business in the fourth quarter. The projected segment margins expansion of a 170 basis points to 200 basis points is driven by higher volumes productivity and the impact of this spin-off of the former resins and chemicals business. In Safety and Productivity Solutions sales are expected to be up flat, or to be flat to up 2% on an organic basis, with recorded sales increasing north of 25% due to the impact of the Intelligrated acquisition. The organic growth will be slightly lower quarter-to-quarter as the significant workflow solutions growth we saw from improved supply chain execution in the first quarter normalizes in the second quarter. In the safety business, growth in the industrial business will be driven by new product introduction and better end market outlooks. In Intelligrated, orders were strong exciting the first quarter and we anticipate double-digit growth to continue. SPS margins are expected to expand by more than 250 basis points excluding the first year of dilutive impacts with M&A, driven primarily by benefits from last year's restructuring projects and by the sales growth and ongoing productivity initiatives. For the company in total we’re expecting EPS of $1.75 to $1.80, which will be up 7% to 10% year-over-year excluding 2016 divestitures and normalizing for our expected full year tax rate. Organic sales growth is anticipated to be flat to 2% with 50 basis points to 80 basis points of margin expansion. We expect the reported sales will be down 1% to 3% due to the 2016 portfolio actions I mentioned. Let me move to Slide 9. As Darius mentioned, we’re raising our low end of our full year EPS guidance by $0.05 to $6.90 to $7.10 up 7% to 10%, excluding divestitures. At a total Honeywell level we continue to anticipate delivering between 70 basis points and 110 basis points of margin expansion for the full year driven by slightly better performance in aerospace and PMT overcoming a slower start in HBT. Let me turn to Slide 10 for a brief wrap up. In summary, we delivered a high quality first quarter results with all of our segments contributing to the performance. Our end markets continue to improve across our businesses and our execution is getting better as well. We expect second quarter earnings to grow 7% to 10% year-over-year excluding divestitures and normalize for tax and we raised the low end of our full year EPS guide by $0.05. Our businesses continue to win and growing end markets, the investments we made in 2016 including the significant restructuring projects are also delivering for us and our Honeywell operating system is continuing to drive commercial gains and productivity improvements. We’re well positioned to continue to outperform for the remainder of 2017. So with that, Mark let's move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks, Tom. Darius and Tom are both now available to answer your questions. So, Dennis can we open up the line for Q&A?
Operator:
Absolutely Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question comes from Mr. Scott Davis from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis:
If we can talk -- can you guys just remind us where we are with the European Solstice capacity adds. And when -- I know you’ve been taking orders, but when do you really see the lion's share of that revenue ramp from -- maybe each one of those is a separate question, but I'd just leave it at that.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, so I would say that the biggest facility that we've been building for the last couple of year comes online at the end of Q2, early Q3, which is really the last portion of the capacity expansion. And as we saw starting early this year with the MAC initiatives kicking in in Europe we saw a nice volume ramp-up and our Solstice product line is up double digit so far this year and we expect that to continue and even accelerate further as we head into 2017 and further into '18 but. I think that the short answer here is that as we get into the second half of 2017 we're going to be exactly where we need to be from a capacity perspectives.
Tom Szlosek:
And I would add, Scotts to that, that the orders are supporting that, I mean we had, as we mentioned double-digit orders growth in PMT overall, it was across all of the businesses, but especially in the once where we're making those capacity investments and the backlog is that it's picking up nicely.
Scott Davis:
So help us just to understand, what kind of capacity utilization will you be at or how does that -- I mean are you profitable with those new orders in the first year or does it take until you get to a certain percent capacity utilization and just help us understand that and that'll be it from me? Thanks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean I think remaining process start-up, I mean we are obviously not going to be operating at full capacity because and we had plans for that, and things are going to get ramped up. But I would say we're targeting well north of the 80% once we get into 2018 and beyond, and frankly we can bring even more capacity online as we secure new orders, we think that Solstice, we've done a really nice job securing orders and a lot of that is I would say our developed markets, but we see a lot of potential in our HGR markets as well given the acceptance of some of the, the payers outcome and we have some extra capacity that we can bring to bear to generate revenue and we also have plans for further expansions should some of those regulations be enacted, which we think that there is a very good chance that that will happen.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa :
So you guys did about $0.12 of kind of continuing ops improvement year-over-year in the first quarter. I think you had these OEM incentives and what were the OEM incentives in the first quarter I think you said 25 in the first half? Where were they in the first quarter?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, they were minor. The year-over-year impact was minor on OEM incentives in the first quarter.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, so that will be in effects, so that will be in the second quarter?
Darius Adamczyk:
Second quarter you will see that.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, when we look at kind of the second half of the year versus the first half of the year you are doing $0.12 year-over-year in these kind of core businesses in the first quarter of maybe it's a little bit less than that because of the OEM incentives in the second quarter although your guidance wouldn’t suggest that. Just remind us is there anything in the second half other than the OEM incentives that makes the year-over-year comp tougher? Seems to me like the second half kind of dropped off a bit, so you have easier year-over-year comps there. Is there anything we should consider whether its mix or orders timing or anything like that or should that kind of -- $0.12 of whatever you do here in the first half actually be better in the second half of the year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah I think the incentives, clearly as I said, a drag in the first half, a nice tailwind in the second half and that will continue into '18 and '19. We do get ramp up of repositioning in the second half. And then the we’re continuing to integrate the acquisition, we’re still actively integrating nine deals including the Intelligrated and those tends to get better as the year progresses in terms of operating margin improve when those synergies kick in. I’d say those are the major impacts, first half and second half.
Steve Tusa:
So, those are good guide from a run-rate perspective?
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah. They should be helpful.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. So, I think the, go ahead --.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah, I was just going to say Steve that we can’t point to any specific headwinds other than frankly market uncertainty and although we're excited about frankly about the kind of a long-term orders performance we had in Q1. In most of our businesses is short cycle and the environment is probably fairly volatile, so we’re being a little bit tempered of our expectations for the second half and given that it's kind of weak into the new role, we’re being a little bit, I would say tempered around our expectations, but certainly excited about the kind of start we have here.
Steve Tusa:
And I think -- yeah I would agree, I mean it looks like your guidance suggests really very minimal kind of run-rate improvement. So, a smart move only being in the seat for a few weeks. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
And next from Morgan Stanley, we’ll hear from Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe:
So, just want to pick up on Steve's last question about the sort of how its having a start here and Darius you mentioned the environment is uneven volatile. Is that a reference to kind of what happened second half of last year 3Q very weak, 4Q came back and then 1Q back for raises [ph]. Is that what you're referring to or you're seeing inter quarter volatility during 1Q. And then on top of that, maybe you can just kind of color in sort of the what you're seeing today versus what you saw back in December when we put the plan together?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. No, the answer to the first part of your question. No, I actually had nothing to do with Q3 or Q4 last year and I would say overall and I think consistent with what I said at Investor Day, the environment in 2017 is better than 2016. I think we certainly see that in PMT, we see it in HBT, SPS and so on. I would also temper that, but it's not dramatically better, but its better, but not it's certainly not the kind of recovery. In terms of comps versus December and how we deal today versus back then, I think maybe the only deal that that’s a little bit different is that I think Dave sort of called it kind of the expectations around what's going to happen around tax reforms, they've been tempered a little bit as well, we continue to remain optimistic that things will happen, but I would say that there was almost clearly expectations and now I think there is a little more hesitancy, we have the elections in France coming up this weekend. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in terms of the geopolitical environment at the moment.
Nigel Coe:
Yeah. for sure. And just to get into TS a little bit more detail, you referenced, Tom, that the commercial vehicle tails on highway and I'm assuming off highway to, and then as obviously we have a continued growth in penetration in gas, but then offsetting that we've got a little bit of LB production headwinds in the second half maybe even 2Q, and then diesel penetration Europe seems to be ticking down. So I'm just wondering how should we -- so to switch up together and thinking about the TS growth over the back half of the year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, and I think you've got all the factors laid out there Nigel, the overall global market will probably be flattish to up a little bit in terms of total production so when you look at the way we've modeled it out, I would say that the second quarter is not inconsistent with what you can expect for the rest of the year for TS.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin :
Yes, so just the question on free cash flow, very impressive first quarter, can you just provide us was more insight as to what are the areas that you are looking for improvement what businesses you are targeting, what accounts and what should we see throughout the year?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, sure. First quarter for us the biggest driver as we've said was improved working capital performance. We saw that in particular in PMT and in Aerospace. But I think we're just, we're at the outset so that's going to be the major area focus for us in terms of driving improved free cash flow conversion. You've also got the CapEx and as you know we were at that peaks in 2016 and the 2017 that's starts to the moderators the investments that Darius is talking about earlier ramped down and we get into the full run mode, particularly in PMT and with the combination of those two things we expect to continue to drive that conversion higher.
Darius Adamczyk:
And just to add and I would just emphasize the point that, working capital is -- so the renewed level of emphasis in all Honeywell your question around which businesses, I think all of them have an opportunity. We're driving receivable, inventory in all of these businesses, I think PMT particularly is [indiscernible] they did a really nice job in they receivables, a part of that is due to the recovery in the oil and gas markets, where some of our customers are recovering and they've made really, really nice progress in Q1 and by the way there is more to do. So I accept progress in all four of the SPGs going forward?
Andrew Obin:
And just a follow-up question than on PMT. Great commentary on UOP, but a generally what are you guys seeing on a large project discussions and maybe outside of UOP and maybe you could just go around the world just to give us some colors as to what you are seeing?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean overall actually nice orders performance, high-single digit up for HPS. Teens, high-teens up for UOP, so we're seeing the order activity returning. I would characterize the order as kind of the medium size, so we didn’t have the mega orders like we did in the last 12 to 18 months, which HPS has won. These will be kind of the medium sized, we actually didn't see the base business be as strong as we like it to. So this is being kind of the midsize order activities. As we look at the region-by-region, South America continues to be relatively soft, the Middle East has had a nice comeback, China very, very strong performance in the first quarter, won lot of work there and that continues to come back also the U.S., especially in our GPNH business in UOP which is well correlated to the extent of the unconventional segment and as you see the rig count being up 80% in the US and much more than in Canada. We saw a very, very strong order activity in our GPNH business with the cryo-plants. So, overall as the oil price stabilize here at 50, 50 plus and we’re encouraged that some of the news we’re hearing about the production freezes that OPAC is encouraging its members to do, I think that this is going to continue to be a tailwind for us for the rest of the year.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Just a couple of things from me. I wondered if you could just elaborate a little bit more on what's going on with the Intelligrated? Obviously, I think we’re all aware kind of e-commerce effect on retail and it's knock on effects to distribution. But really my question is, how much of the strength that you're seeing relates to Intelligrated now being part of Honeywell and you’ve being able to open it up into other areas or should we think of this as a kind of truly organic Intelligrated as it stands now? And if the answer is, that’s really just kind of this just legacy Intelligrated, maybe a little bit more color on the integration of the business and how you see the growth going forward?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. I think it's both Jeff, because for example one is the elements we're investing in heavily right now is, Intelligrated is predominantly is U.S. business, and we’re globalizing that business, investing and let's say metricizing it and we see the international growth is a big opportunity for us in the future. That hasn’t come through in the form big orders yet, but I can tell you that a lot of the big customers that we currently have in the U.S., they would want us to have a much broader global presence and we’ve invested in that and we expect to materialize that. In terms of overall business performance, I think I would describe that in one word, terrific. This business has substantially exceeding any financial metrics we’ve had for it and continues to impress us of its rate of growth and we see strong double-digit growth rate both in revenue and bookings for this year and the more I learn about it, the more of the customers of this business I meet, the more excited I get. I think that we have a very exciting growth profile for this business both in terms of making it more global expanding our software solutions, expanding or playing robotics [ph] to a lot of different directions to go organically and potentially inorganically.
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah. And the other thing I would add in terms of the Honeywell value is the -- those aftermarkets types of positioning, I mean the install base, we've mentioned 20% sales growth, this quarter backlog is up strongly in the double-digits. We’re building a big install base there and that developing that aftermarket business model in addition to what Darius mentioned about the Europe it's going to be a nice driver for Intelligrated to grow.
Darius Adamczyk:
And just maybe just one last thing to add and this is -- I've highlighted this before, but just to reinforce. The sweet spot of the Intelligrated business is ecommerce. It's high through, high speed package processing, which as you know is the segment it's growing in the fastest right now. So this is exactly in the sweet spot of where the big growth vector is at the moment.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then just the separate unrelated question. On UOP can you just elaborate a little bit more on the licensing uptick you are seeing, what verticals is that and any color on what's going on in the refinery turnaround and chemical plant turnaround landscape? Thank you, that's it from me.
Darius Adamczyk:
I would say the big uptick is in the petrochemical particularly in China is the place, I would point to, we've had a lot of recent success much larger integrated complexes and the combination of HPS and UOP is working very well, there are a number of wins there are in a very, very strong Q1 so as the economy grows so just the demand for the petrochemicals I would point to that as one of the highlights of the booking activity here in Q1 and certainly, China, India has been good but really strength across the globe. And even from activity returning in the Middle-East, which is really nice to see.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Your four priorities that you laid out at the outlook, we're not expecting you to touch and check off every box, every quarter, but we did see the accelerated organic revenues. You got that expanding margins. You got that certainly more excitement and traction around it being a software industrial. Maybe not hearing much here this morning about more aggressive capital deployment. So maybe you can just touch on that. What kind of expectations do you want to set over the near term?
Darius Adamczyk:
I think on cap deployment as I promised, that is one of the core initiatives. Frankly, we continue to be very active. The pipeline for M&A deals is very, very active. As but things are little bit expensive out there, so we are being cautious because as I point out on our Investor Day, we do want to be active and secure the right deals, but we also want to continue to be prudent buyers not over spend and that's frankly why maybe we haven’t announced some of the -- any deals yet this year, but rest assured were very, very active. In terms of buybacks timing and we are committed to having the flat share count as we said and potentially to do even more later in the year. So timing is everything in that perspective. So yes it seems a little bit quite but you got also to remember that I'm only about three weeks into the tole, so probably I'm pleased at some of the leverage actually coming through in our results in Q1.
Deane Dray:
Got it, and then just as a follow-up. One of the goals that you've set is a new product Vitality index you expect to track to 20% in 2017 an uptick from last year. How did the first quarter play out?
Tom Szlosek:
I think it's played out well, but in full transparency I would say most of our new product launches are backend loaded this year. We have some things coming out in Q3, Q3 will be a very, very new product launch quarter. So, I think in fairness, I'll have to be in a better position to answer that question, as we get deeper into the year, because right now it's really too early to tell and I don’t want to declare a success until we see how some of the bigger even more exciting new product launches happen in Q2, and especially in Q3 which is going to be big launch quarter for us.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Gautam Khanna from Cowen & Company. Please go ahead.
Gautam Khanna:
I wanted to ask if you can characterize any of the channels that may have any destocking still going on. Previously you talked about SNPS, wondered if that’s abated in, recently we heard some other aerospace companies talking about destocking on some of the aircraft programs, A7, 777, A380, et cetera. If you're seeing any of that or do you expect to? Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. I mean I think let me comment kind of SGS and I think we kind of see this continuation of destocking and frankly as some of our distribution partners are operating at lower inventory levels that what we’ve historically have seen, that's certainly true in SPS. In Aero I'm not sure that we notice that is much, I think that’s been fairly steady at least for us and that’s exhibited by that the fact that frankly this performed a little bit better than we projected for Q1 and especially in the aftermarket segment for business which is been very, very strong and we’re very pleased with the it. So I'm not sure that we’ve seen that in Q1.
Gautam Khanna:
Okay. And just a quick follow-up on the M&A question from the earlier. Are you seeing any areas that are more promising than others that you could comment on, where valuations are perhaps more stretched versus more attractive, when looking at your [indiscernible]?
Darius Adamczyk:
Well, I guess unfortunately they are pretty stretch everywhere. The market is pretty warm right now, there is a lot of cash sitting around both on the private equity as well as strategic. I wouldn't say that anything is particularly cheap at the moment. Now, having said that we have very, very big pipeline and we have a lot of different options in terms of the segments that we’re looking at, and I can tell you that we have attractive deals that we’re looking through in every one of our SPGs. Now what actually lands and what happens we’ll see. But I would say overall things are a bit expensive there is no question about that and I don’t think that’s a comment that's end market specific, that’s true really across our entire portfolio.
Operator:
The next question we’ll hear from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie:
So, Tom you mentioned interest this quarter on the organic growth side, it sounds like the -- it sounds like the order growth across a lot of your segments right now is going in the positive way. You've look at accounts for next quarter looks pretty easy I'm just trying to understand I guess the guidance, the flat to 2% organic growth guidance for 2Q. It just kind of seems like a layup based on the commentary and based on the comps. So maybe a little bit more color there would be helpful?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, that's fine Joe. We sort of had a sense that that would be a question. When you look at our businesses overall, our long-cycle is about 40%, short-cycle is about 60%. So were still in an environment on the short-cycle side where the demand patterns are not quite consistent, the word volatility was used before. I mean it's not exactly something that we have a good extended sight into on that short-cycle side. But with that, if you look at it by each business, I mean Aerospace is more long-cycle oriented and the exception of the aftermarket, so fairly well grounded we did flat in Q1, we were calling minus 3 to minus 1 for Q2 and that's mostly OE related. You have those incentives coming through, as we mentioned that's at the bulk of the first half staff incentives hit us in that second quarter you've got regional and that's on the OE side that's been fairly weak and BGA continues to be kind of in that flattish range. From an HPT perspective, short-cycle we're a little bit more cautious. So yes, we did 3% in Q1, we're calling 1% to 3% in Q2, let's see how that -- let's see how the demand patterns emerge over this quarter. I'd said the same thing for SPS, although there are a couple of other things going on there. So SPS was 3%, first quarter we're calling 0 to 2 in Q2, we've got a change in our go-to-market model on the retails side and we're going more direct to our customers and as a result there was some timing patterns in the channels. We also had as I mentioned, significant improvement in the first quarter and workloads solutions supply-chain. There was strong demand, but there was some unintended backlog at the end of the fourth quarter, we worked our way through and that helped Q1 specifically and SPS. So that's tempers a little bit. But lastly on PMT, I think the -- it's fairly well grounded given the backlogs, so 5% in Q1, 3% to 5% in Q2, certainly Darius and I talked to Rajeev everyday about this, so we have the sort of the same expectation that we'll do a little bit better there, but we just want to be cautious on demand on some of the advance materials. It's been running like gang busters, as I said 150% improvement on the Solstice sale. I don’t want to just bank on that every single quarter going forward.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, and Joe, maybe just add a couple of comments. I think as you look at our long-cycle business and our backlog, we are fairly encouraged by what we saw, in Q1 backlog being up pretty much for every one of those businesses, and certainly there is a level of confidence in what we’re seeing on the long-cycle. The short-cycles is a slightly different story and we are positive on that short-cycle too, but if you think about kind of the animal spirits that we saw overall in the markets particularly in the U.S. and let's say in January versus what we see now, I would say that's a slight down arrow versus what it was and I think some of that could be reflected in the short-cycle and frankly we're being a little bit cautions and measured in terms of our outlook and we hope to deliver to the upside of what we stated.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. That’s an interesting observation on the bifurcation there. I guess the follow-up question I guess is maybe even slightly similar is really on the cash flow side. Seasonally incredibly strong, it didn’t sound like you guys called out any onetime items this quarter. What's stopping you from potentially raising the cash flow guidance for the year?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. I mean -- so we’re calling 5% to 7% growth in the -- for the full year guide, Joe. As you know the first quarter was 6x, first quarter is generally our most volatile quarter when it comes to cash. Now coupled that with these new initiatives that we’ve put in place around working capital. You did see some significant uptake, I guess we want to see a sustained level of performance. Let's see where we are at the end of Q2 and let see whether we're really sticking with the working capital improvements that we’ve seen. But I have a bias, like you do that that could get better as the year progresses. Yeah. I think [indiscernible], I mean we need to see sustained performance, one quarter doesn’t make the year and although we’re very encourage by what we saw in Q1, I need to see it continued in Q2 and frankly if we see continued sustain performance at the end of Q2 we're going to revisit our guidance at the conclusion of the second quarter.
Operator:
And next question comes from Howard Rubel with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Howard Rubel:
Two things, first maybe you could talk a little bit about the progress with connectivity. How many installs you have and sort of what kind of customer feedback that you are now getting with that business, is it becoming a little bit more prevalent in the marketplace?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. No, I think Howard, we're building out of organization. We saw a couple of key higher and Que Dallara and Steven Gold joined us in very senior leadership spot, we’re building out our offerings and whether its connected aircraft where we’ve had a number of wins that we highlighted in their report today, whether its connected homes, buildings, connected plant, sign up multiple partners. So, I'm not sure that we really measure it yet in terms of the number of connections we have, we measure it by the number of customer engagements we have, kind of interactions we have. And frankly some of the connected enterprises are ahead of the others, I would classify connected aircraft, connect plant are a little bit further ahead and some of the other still a little bit more behind. But I can tell you that for all of them, we’re at a stage where engaging customers we’re optimizing our solutions and iterating, iterating quickly the way to grow this business is derive hypophysis, talk to customers, iterate and bring the value, because in many instances the customers don’t know -- they can’t define exactly what they’re looking for. So, we have a hypophysis that we optimize and optimize, but very, very big build out in this organization. So, we’re -- whether it's our Atlanta software COE or some of the senior people that I pointed out, we’re quickly building out our capabilities. But at the same time engaging customers there for revenue generation. And I can tell you that software business was, in total was up double digit in Q1.
Howard Rubel:
I understand the challenge of doing that. I appreciate that. And then as a follow-up in the other area on HPT you've called out the profitability was a little bit below what you might have expected in meet us well, and kind of the two-part question and as part of it mix and can you elaborate on that, and then from a strategic point of view we've seen a lot of what I'll call retail struggle a bit and that has in fact been the benefit of the ecommerce world. So can you talk about that structural dynamic and then also the near-term issue?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I think Howard, you have it exactly right. I think the mix has been our biggest issue for Q1 in HPT both from a mix from a product versus distribution perspective, but also geographic perspective, where we saw tremendous rate of growth in some of the HGR regions, regions we've seen slightly less accretive versus some of the developed markets. So that was issue number one. Now in terms of the retails versus transitioning to more ecommerce, I'm not sure that was really one of the cases, frankly our North America business was the little bit softer than we had expected. But HPT, when I pointed out earlier, when I answered the question around new product launches, there isn’t a business out there that has more exciting product launches coming out in Q2 and Q3 and I expect that we're going to have a really, really nice strong second half of the year as well as a nice recovery here in Q2.
Tom Szlosek:
The other point I would add, Howard is that, in some of those -- some of the businesses that are growing faster than others, for example, as Darius mentioned the Americas region. When you have an OEM business, where we're providing parts and components to OEMs, that is growing quite strongly low to mid-single digit, the margins on the initial sale are not great, but we're building installed base. That's the business that we are in here. So creating an aftermarket opportunities. I think you are seeing a little bit of that in the Americas as well.
Operator:
And our final question for today come from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Christopher Glynn:
I notice your comments on the several large smart meter project roll outs. Just wondering how much of that has developed since December and there are some complexion on how those came to fruition overall?
Darius Adamczyk:
I mean some of them, certainly we secured those since December, overall, we were very bullish on this smart energy business for really the rest of the year. Those revenues tend to be maybe more lumpy than want to expect, we were kind of flattish in the first quarter, but I expect double digit growth in the second quarter and high single digit growth for the year, so we've been very successful in securing some of those larger wins. Really pleased with what we saw in terms of win activity in Q1. So overall very bullish on the Elster acquisition and what we're seeing in our smart energy business.
Christopher Glynn:
Thanks. And then the follow-up, just long-term pension income, kind of curious that if you could update the thought there? Its certainly a little bit arcane, if you could -- it's a nice income right now. What's kind of the long-term characteristic and sense of variability on how that P&L impact can swing overtime?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yeah. As you know, I mean I like to simplify the model into two pieces, one is the assets and the other is the liability. The assets, you use the word archaic accounting model, I mean we just apply and assume return to the assets and that goes into our income. So as long as that assets pool that we have is performing and it has performed fairly well. You keep applying that same rate of income and you tend to grow your pension income. On the liability side, its interest rate related, so we're in a low interest rate environment and we apply that interest rate to the liability and that goes into our expense as well as one of our expense. As that interest rate rises, you would see a decline in the pension income. But its -- it overall is the flat, but the important part for us is that the plans are in very good shape, they are well funded we’re in the mid-90s or higher in most of our plans including the big one in the U.S. We don’t foresee any contribution in the foreseeable future. So, it just becomes kind of the book keeping things for us as we go forward here.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference back to Mr. Darius Adamczyk for any additional or closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk:
Thank you. I'm pleased with our performance in the first quarter, especially our sales performance and overall execution. It was a clean quarter all around with every business either meeting or exceeding the top line guidance we provided. However, there is more work to do, everyone in the organization is focus in our key priorities, improving organic growth, maintaining our productivity rigor and becoming a best in class software industrial company. We’re going to continuously focus on outperforming for our customers, our shareholders and our employees and I look forward to sharing our continued success with you on futures calls. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - VP, IR Dave Cote - Chairman & CEO Darius Adamczyk - President and Chief Operating Officer Tom Szlosek - SVP & CFO
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Steven Winoker - Bernstein Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Howard Rubel - Jefferies Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley Andrew Kaplowitz - Citi John Inch - Deutsche Bank Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thank you Sean, good morning and welcome to Honeywell's fourth quarter 2016 earnings conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO Dave Cote, President and Chief Operating Officer, Darius Adamczyk, and Senior Vice President and CFO Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.Honeywell.com/investor. As a reminder, elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance on our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2016 and share our guidance for the first quarter of 2017. As always, we will leave ample time for your questions at the end. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Dave Cote.
Dave Cote:
Good morning, everyone. While we finished 2016 with a strong fourth quarter delivering earnings per share of $1.74 and that’s up 14% year-over-year. The quality of earnings was strong driven by double digit growth in our European sources portfolios within Performance, Materials and Technologies as well as continued strength in Transportation systems and the Home and Building Technologies distribution business. We also funded more than $30 million in new restructuring projects and absorbed more than $115 million in Aerospace OEM incentives. We finished the year by exceeding the segment margin and free cash flow estimates that we provided during December. Segment margins for the fourth quarter expanded by 90 basis points excluding M&A, mostly due to productivity and benefits from the significant restructuring actions we executed throughout the year. Free cash flow for the quarter was $1.7 billion with 126% conversion driven by improved working capital. For the full year earnings of $660 increased 8% year-over-year operationally, our segment margins improved by 80 basis points for the year. In 2016, we also completed several significant portfolio actions that will deliver attractive future returns for our shareowners. The spinoff of our resins and chemicals business not only reduces the cyclicality and improved the margin profile of our performance materials and technologies business but it also created nearly 800 million in showing the value. And at today's AdvanSix stock price that value is $1.1trillion. We’ve sold our aerospace government services business and reinvested $175 million of the proceeds into earnings enhancing restructuring projects. We split the former automation and control solutions business into two new more nimble reporting segments that will deliver better growth, speed and productivity. In 2016, we also funded more than $250 million in restructuring projects that will provide a significant tailwind this year and beyond. We also deployed more than $2 billion for share purchases funded a high return capital projects through $1.1 billion of CapEx and refinanced our debt reducing are expected 2017 interest expense by about 8% while increasing our aggregate borrowings by $4 billion. Lastly, we successfully implemented a comprehensive CEO and segment leadership succession plan. Darius has hit the ground running and has worked extensively with our businesses on their 2017 operations and strategic plans. As Darius and Tom share during our outlook call in December, we remain optimistic about 2017 and we are reaffirming our 2017 guidance of 6% to 10% earnings growth as divestitures and organic sales growth of 1% to 3%. For the first quarter we are initiating EPS guidance of $1.60 to $1.64 which is a 6% to 9% increase year-over-year as divestitures. I’d like to share some of our recent highlights on this next slide which includes some great trends and progress in our connected initiatives. Our long cycle backlog is improving in a number of our businesses including a double digit improvement in building solutions driven by projects growth, a mid single digit increase in defense and space driven by U.S. defense and a mid single digit improvement in UOP driven by increased equipment demand. We are seeing continued strength in Intelligrated with backlog of more than 40% and in transportation systems where our win rate for 2016 was more than 50%. Also the pipeline of orders for Solstice remains above $3 billion. Significant wins in the fourth quarter include a live utility energy service contract to modernize the Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City. The upgrade in water and HVAC systems, energy efficient lighting and other advances will significantly reduce their carbon footprint while saving the Air Force more than $3.5 million a year. UOP got two additional licensing agreements in China. We licensed our Unicracking technology for the production of diesel and naphtha to meet growing Chinese demand for transportation fuels. And we licensed our Methanol-To-Olefins technology which enables the conversion of domestic coal resources to Ethylene and Propylene the essential ingredients for making plastics. This is UOPs ninth MTO license in China. UOP continues to win in China because of our local expertise, local manufacturing capabilities and our 80-year history of helping the Chinese Petroleum industry [song] tougher challenges. Also, in UOP we announced that our modular exceeds bioreactor technology; it’s helping a fresh cut, fruit and vegetables company in the U.S. to treat waste water. The unit treats roughly 150,000 gallons a day to meet local standards. Waste water regulations are getting increasingly strict and we have unique technology to help our customers meet these requirements more efficiently and cost effectively with simple, modular equipment for fast installation and low maintenance. This is our first XCeed facility for the food and beverage industry and growth in segments outside of oil and gas will help reduce the cyclicality of UOP in the future. In Home and Building technologies we finalized a $250 million advanced meter project with Entergy to help improve electricity service and reliability for utility customers across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. And our HBT business continues to make advances in high-growth regions providing connected security solutions like a new municipal surveillance system and our new line of INNCOM elements, Guestroom Controls for our hospitality customers. We are also making significant progress on our connected initiatives, which are powered by the Honeywell Sentience platform. Within connected aircrafts our equipment is available for use on all Airbus platforms and system integrations are in process on the Boeing 737 MAX, 787 and 777X. In the business jet market, Bombardier and Gulfstream will be offering JetWave on selected models of new aircraft and we are certifying the system for aftermarket upgrades on over 30 models. We are nearing a milestone of 500 JetWave deliveries and we continue to receive significant orders. It will be a big part of our growth story in 2017 and beyond. We have JetWave on our planes and it is awesome. While I was live streaming a TV show on my iPad, I got a phone call on my iPad, answered it had no [Indiscernible] latency, completed the call and returned to the show. It is awesome, really simply awesome. For Connected homes, we made some exciting announcements at this consumer’s electronic show. We introduced new Lyric do-it-yourself Security cameras which led home owners monitor motion and sound while away from their homes. We also announced compatibility of the Lyric Home security and control system with Apple HomeKit giving home owners control of their security system through Siri or the Apple Home app. The ever expanding suite of Lyric connected products now includes cameras, a Water Leak and Freeze Detector, Thermostat and security products to keep homes safe and comfortable. Within connected plant, we announced new INspire partnerships in Honeywell process solutions with Dover Automation and Aereon. It will help manufacturers leverage the industrial Internet of Things to improve the safety, efficiency, and reliability of operations across a single plant or several plants across an enterprise. We currently have four partners as part of the INspire program which fosters collaboration between customers, equipment vendors, process licensors, consultants and Honeywell experts. And we expect that number to grow considerably throughout the year. We also continue to gain traction for our family of cloud based services for the oil and gas industry that anticipates operational complications offering real time solutions to overcome them. In the last few months we’ve announced agreements to help PetroVietnam produce more gasoline and consumers energy and to help Delek Refining avoid downtime and improve its operations. Lastly, a few weeks ago we announced the collaboration with Intel to develop IoT Solutions for the retail industry. Honeywell and Intel will jointly develop solutions that utilized the two company’s technology offerings including our sensors, handheld computers, processes, bar code scanners, RFID tag readers and cloud based software. These solutions will help retailers and supply chain firms gain greater visibility into in store inventory, enhance customer service and ensure items ordered online are available for in-store pickup. A number of these technologies will be on display at our annual investor conference which will take place on March 1, at the Plaza in New York City. Darius and I look forward to talking with you more about our progress then. So with that, I will turn it over to Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks, Dave. I’m on slide four. Earnings per share of $1.74 for the quarter increased 14% from 2015 as Dave indicated and now this excludes the charges for debt refinancing and pension mark-to-market we talked about in our guidance and also from 2015 it excludes the divestitures that we did in 2016. To reemphasize Dave’s point, the double digit increase was achieved even while absorbing the impact of $48 million in incremental year-over-year OEM incentives. The fourth quarter reported earnings per share were $1.34, the lower amount reflects that $0.12 for that debt refinancing as well as the pension mark-to-market of approximately $0.28 a share driven by lower discount rates in U.K. Germany and the U.S. The 2015 pension mark-to-market charge was about $0.05 a share. Segment profit for the quarter was $1.9 billion and we expanded segment margin by 20 basis points and 19%. Now that’s 90 basis points at 19.7% excluding the first year dilutive impacts from M&A. Productivity and restructuring benefits along with higher catalyst and Solstice volumes were the key drivers of our margin expansion partially offset by the higher aerospace OEM incentives I just mentioned. Sales of $10 billion were flat on a reported basis and declined by 1% on a core organic basis. In PMT we delivered double digit core organic sales growth in UOP and in Solstice. In addition, our transportation systems and home and buildings distribution businesses continue to grow nicely. However, we did see declines in Defense & Space and business in general aviation similar to what others are seeing and we had unanticipated supply chain delays within our safety and productivity solutions business at the end of December which modestly diluted our performance in SPS. Free cash flow in the quarter $1.7 billion, up 8% with conversion of 126% largely driven by improvement in working capital. Our CapEx reinvestment ratio for the quarter exceeded 190% as we continued to invest in high ROI projects. This is the third consecutive year of reinvesting in over 150% of depreciation, but we expect the reinvestment rate to normalize to around one times depreciation as we complete this investment cycle. CapEx is expected to decrease by about 5% in 2017. Overall, the fourth quarter was a very nice finish to the year. And now on slide five to discuss the segment performance. Starting with Aerospace, our core organic sales came in at the high end of our December outlook with softness in business and general aviation and prior year program completions at international Defense & Space leading to an overall 5% decline. Turbo continue to be a great story driven by our penetration in light vehicle gas application. For the year, core organic sales in our gas business were up more than 20% and over 30% in the fourth quarter and we booked more than 5 billion in new platform win bringing our 2016 win rate for all of TC north of 50% as Dave indicated. Our Aerospace segment margin came in above our forecast driven by stronger productivity and slightly lower OEM incentives that we anticipated, but still higher year-over-year. Home and building technology delivered 2% core organic growth led by building solutions, global distribution and our high growth regions where we grew more than 10% both China and in India. Growth in our smart energy business improved driven by smart meter programs roll outs in Europe. HBT margins excluding the first year diluted impact of M&A expanded by 60 basis points driven by benefits from previously funded restructuring and commercial excellence and that was partially offset by the impact of higher distribution sales in the mix. In PMT core organic sales grew by 5%. UOP was very strong growing 10% in the fourth quarter driven by catalysts, licensing and equipment. Process solutions finished the year with strong sales on software migration services. Now the positive sentiment in our oil and gas businesses continues, and we signs of improving activity with our customers around the world, including a 5% increase in the UOP backlog driven by equipment, engineering and services. In the fourth quarter, growth in HPS of 8% driven primarily by global megaprojects and the industrial thermal business. Finally Solstice, low global warming refrigerant volume in fluorine products drove 8% core organic sales growth in advanced materials and we expect this trend to continue in 2017. PMT margin expanded by more than 500 basis points driven by those strong volumes as well as productivity and higher catalyst and licensing volumes in the mix. In SPS, we ended the quarter slightly below our expectations as I mentioned earlier. Intelligrated continues to perform quite well, its order rates have been strong increasing by double digits in calendar year 2016 and the business is exceeding its income targets despite the acquisition and integration cost we’ve incurred. SPS segment margin expanded a 100 basis points excluding in the first year dilutive impact of M&A. This was driven by benefits from restructuring and commercial excellence. Slide six shows the elements that contributed to our EPS growth in the quarter. This was a quarter of strong earnings growth driven principally by the performance in our business segments. Starting on the left, earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2015 was $1.53 if you exclude last year’s pension mark-to-market charge and the fourth quarter 2000 earnings associated with the 2016 divestitures. Operational segment profit reflects our core business performance. So it would exclude non operational impacts such as one time M&A cost, the dilutive impacts from the strength in U.S. dollar and incremental OEM incentives. Operational segment profit was the big driver contributing $0.19 to earnings. Our continued productivity across the portfolio, the increased volumes most notably from UOP and Solstice, the operating earnings from the nine acquisitions we’ve completed since 2015 and the benefits from restructuring we continue to fund are all fuelling the operational improvements. All Other is a $0.02 win and includes benefits from below the line items, a slightly lower share count and a lower tax rate, partially offset by the non-operational components of segment profit I mentioned. This works to earnings of $1.74 per share 14% increase our strongest quarter of 2016. Let’s turn to slide seven to quickly recap our full year performance. Our full year sales increased 2% on a reported basis. For the year we had a good growth in home and building distribution, lower gas platforms within transportation systems, the commercial aviation aftermarket in aerospace and in our Solstice business in performance, materials and technologies. You can see a summary of our segment performance on the right of this slide and more details about our segments fourth quarter and full year sales performance are in the appendix. Segment margins expanded by 10 basis points, excluding the dilutive first year impact of the M&A driven by productivity and restructuring benefits partially offset by higher aerospace OEM incentives and the unfavourable impact of foreign exchange. Now the incremental year-over-year Aerospace OEM incentives diluted our segment margin by 50 basis points in 2016. As you recall this turns into a slight tailwind in 2017. The result of all this were earnings of $6.60 up 8% year-over-year, free cash flow of $4.4 billion was slightly better than we previewed in December, driven by better working capital performance. So with 2016 now behind us, let’s take a quick look at some market trends we are seeing as we head into 2017. I’m on slide eight. In our oil and gas businesses the positive trends we started to see at the end of the third quarter continued to evolve. UOP orders grew up more than 30% from the first half to the second half and all of our UOP businesses contributed to a strong book-to-bill ratio of 1.04 in 2016. UOP project activity is improving and a number of projects that were on hold particularly in China are re-starting. We see good momentum in our high growth regions driven by the demand for refined product in China and India’s accelerated transition to the Euro VI emission standards. Domestically our modular gas processing orders picked up in 2016 and we expect that to continue in 2017. The activity in our international gas processing business continues to be slow although the pipeline is encouraging. We see similar encouraging trends in process solutions. While the pipeline of new megaprojects continue to be lumpy there have recently been expansions of previous award and start ups of awards that were on hold from prior years. The activity in our short cycle and software businesses though in advanced solutions lifecycle solutions in service businesses should continue to improve as our customers resume spend in small and midsized projects and on a regional basis, activity in the U.S. China and Russia remains positive. We are also starting to see signs of improvement in our defense and space portfolio including 7% growth in our backlog and increased activity in our U.S. core defense business. However there is continued softness albeit moderating in our commercial helicopters and domestic space businesses consistent with what others are experiencing. Our plan continues to assume that the [U.S. DoD] continuing a resolution is in place through April. For the year we expect Defense and Space to be roughly flat on a core organic basis versus 2016. Regarding construction, while commentators have been expecting a slowdown in growth rates in 2017, recent indicators had been more positive. The U.S. Dodge Momentum Index has risen for three consecutive months, reaching a new high in December with a surge in commercial planning intentions, nevertheless we continue to plan conservatively in this space and continue to forecast low single digit growth in residential and commercial construction leading to low to mid single digit growth in HBT In Aerospace, we expect the weakness in the business jet market will persist over 2017. This is most prominent on the OEM side and our outlook here has not changed. In the aftermarket the number of engine maintenance events is down, this will drive variation in growth quarter to quarter but for the full year we expect aftermarket revenue to be in line with flight hours as our accelerated growth in connectivity solutions and repairs, modifications and upgrades provides offsetting momentum. Regarding currency as you know most of our exposure in the Euro is hedged at $1.15 and we have selectively hedged other currencies as well. Thanks to this hedging approach there is no change to our EPS outlook despite the stronger U.S. dollar compared to the assumptions we had in our outlook call. Currency headwinds however will bring down our full year reported sales outlook by about 1.5% and our revised guidance is now 38.6 to 39.5 billion in 2017. The reduction is solely due to the foreign exchange that is mentioned. So on an overall basis, the markets we serve are largely unchanged from what we said in December, and we will continue to monitor this as we move through the first quarter. And we move to slide nine with a preview of Q1. For total Honeywell we are expecting first quarter earnings per share of $1.60 to $1.64 that’s up 6% to 9% year-over-year excluding from 2016 the hearings associated with our 2016 divestitures which were about $0.05 in the first quarter. Sales are expected to be between $9.2 billion and $9.4 billion which is flat up 2% on an organic basis or down 2% to 4% reported. The difference between the reporting core organic sales are due to the divestitures and the impact of foreign exchange partially offset by the impact of acquisitions primarily Intelligrated. Segment margins are expected to expand by 50 basis points to 80 basis points. We expected the sales in the second half of 2017 will be stronger than the first half. PMT and HBT will have a steady quarterly progression as they have in recent years. The difference is between first and second half are more pronounced in aerospace and safety and productivity solutions, but we have good visibility to the acceleration. For example in Aerospace in the first half of the year we expect higher year-over-year OEM incentives which as you know impacted top line, but we expect that trend to reverse in the second half. The decrease will drive the 1% incremental road for aerospace in the second half of the year. In addition we anticipate aerospace aftermarket will be stronger in the second half due to increased sales, repairs, modifications and upgrades including further growth of connected aircraft offerings. In transportation systems we also have second half growth acceleration. This was driven by scheduled new launches and the lapping of a large program completion that will negatively impact sales in the first three quarters of 2017. In safety and productivity solutions our second half is expected to be stronger as Intelligrated reaches the one year point in our portfolio in September and its growth is then included as organic. In the safety business we expect positive impacts of a stronger oil and gas industry and are already beginning to see small signs of improvement including increased bookings in gas detection and personal protection equipment and increasing activity from distribution partners in the Gulf. Lastly, we have significant new product launching in the productivity business in the spring including mobile printers and computers. For the full year our guidance assumes a tax rate of approximately 25% which is slightly higher than the full year 2016. The tax rate is based on a assumed level of employee stock option exercises and any change in that exercise rate could impact the tax rate. We’ll update you on that as we progress through the quarter. Our first quarter guide assumes a weighted average share count of approximately 772 million shares. In aerospace, first-quarter sales are expected to be down on a reported basis, primarily due to the divestiture of the aerospace government services business. The strong deliveries to our air transport OE customers for newer platforms are expected to continue driven by the 737, A320 and A355 will be offset by declines in legacy platforms as we previewed in December. Additionally, sales in business and general aviation will be down and aftermarket sales are expected to be slightly up. Defense and Space will also be slightly up driven by growth in our U.S. core defense business partially offset by declines in international defense, U.S. space and commercial helos. Finally in Turbo, the strong growth we experienced in 2016 will continue building on continued platform wins, in gas and diesel. Light vehicle gas will continue to be the main driver while we expect a slight improvement in commercial vehicles following a strong fourth quarter there. Aerospace margins are expected to expand by 40 basis points to 70 basis points driven primarily by productivity, repositioning benefits and the impacts of our foreign exchange hedging strategy partially offset by the unfavorable mix of new versus legacy platform deliveries. HBT sales are expected to be up 1% to 3% driven by new product introduction including the Lyric launches that Dave highlight as well as Elster smart meter programs and another quarter of double digit growth in China primarily driven by our air and water business. Our high growth region strategy and one China organization continue to serve us very well in this regard. In distribution we expect to see continued conversion of backlog in the energy business of building solutions and strengthen global distribution, which continue to outgrow its markets and peers. We anticipate that HBT margins will expand by 130 to 160 basis points driven by improving volumes in the products business, commercial excellence and the benefits from our 2016 restructuring action. In PMT sales are expected to up 3% to 5% on an organic basis or down 10% to 12% on reported basis due to the spinoff for the resins and chemical business. We expect strong orders and sales growth throughout the PMT portfolio as I mentioned earlier. The segment margin expansion will be driven by productivity and the impact of the spinoff. PMT continue to execute very well on their productivity initiatives. In safety and productivity solutions, we expect that organic sales will be down 1% to up 1%, or up 19% to 21% on a reported basis including Intelligrated acquisition. The safety business is expected to be up slightly in the first quarter, driven by new product introductions in both the industrial safety and retail footwear businesses, improving orders in the industrial vertical overall and improvement in our supply chain. Productivity business is expected to be flat, slightly down driven by continued retail market softness that is impacting demand for scanners and mobile computers. That being said, we are seeing significant orders growth in our supply chain related business particularly in our voice-enabled connected workers solutions and we expect to clear the supply chain challenges we face in the four quarter. In addition double-digit growth in Intelligrated is expected to continue. We are confident that our investments in connected retail solutions coupled within Intelligrated warehouse automation solutions are positioning the business for long term growth. SPS segment margins are expected to be up more than 150 basis points excluding the first year dilutive impact of M&A driven primarily by the impacted productivity and restructuring benefit. Let me move to slide 10 where we reaffirming our 2017 earnings and organic sales guidance and have updated the year-over-year figures to reflect the 2016 actual results. From a total Honeywell perspective we expect sales in the range of $38.6 to $39.5 billion, up 1% to 3% on a core organic basis. Reported sale growth will be low in the range of flat to down 2% primarily due to the impact of foreign exchange and the divestitures we completed in 2016. As I indicated earlier the difference in 2017 sales of our outlook call is solely related to our FX assumptions. Segment margins are expected to be 19% to 19.4% or up 70 to 110 basis points versus 2016. Earnings per share expected to be between 685 and 710 or 6% to 10% growth versus [2015]. The quarterly linearity for EPS remains roughly in line with prior years. Free cash flow forecast remains in the range of 4.6 to 4.7, that’s up 5% to 7% from 2016. On the right side of the page we’ve update our segment guidance to reflect the impact of final 2016 results on the variances and updated foreign currency impacts in each business on the sales line, otherwise there are no changes to the outlook from December. As I said earlier, our tax rate maybe more volatile quarter to quarter depending on the number of employee stock options that are exercise. Our guidance assumes in approximate 25% tax rate at present slightly higher than last year. Let’s turn to slide 11. To sum up we finished 2016 strongly, 14% earnings growth, 8% free cash flow growth in the fourth quarter and 8% earnings growth for the full year. We reaffirmed our 2017 outlook and expect first quarter EPS to be up 6% to 9% excluding divestitures. We put together a credible 2017 plan under Darius’s leadership that continue to deliver significant value for our shareowners, our customers and our employees. With that, Mark, let’s turn it over to Q&A
Mark Macaluso:
Dave, Darius and Tom are here to answer your question. So, Shavonne, if you could, let’s open up the lines for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. We will take our first question from Scott Davis from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Scott Davis:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Dave Cote:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Davis:
Dave, this is your last conference call?
Dave Cote:
It is. This is the last one, and I can promise you I’m really going to miss it.
Scott Davis:
Okay.
Dave Cote:
That wasn’t a joke. I was serious.
Scott Davis:
It’s good for everybody, right. You will be missed, but I’m sure Darius will do a great job.
Dave Cote:
I am confident.
Scott Davis:
Anyway, well, we know where you live, if he doesn't do a good job, let's put it that way.
Dave Cote:
What you do now?
Scott Davis:
But guys I have a nit-picky question, this JetWave thing, is this -- it sounds interesting for sure, and you've talked about it for the last couple of years, it's not brand new, but is this more of a just new platforms or can you do a rip and replace and get rid of some of the existing slow WiFi that out there with GoGo?
Dave Cote:
You can absolutely retrofit, And that’s one of the comments that I had made, because we’re in that process and I think as consumers start to see what’s possible when you’re using this JetWave service, they’re going to be demanding it. I mean, it really is seller. I was on the plane, I wanted to test this stuff myself, my guy – given all the guys a hard time by going faster. So I started live streaming the show. It worked perfectly. I got a phone call through the iPad while I was watching the show, answered the phone, almost, in fact I noticed no latency in the call at all. And then when I ended the call, the show resumed exactly where I left off. It was quite impressive.
Darius Adamczyk:
I’d add, Scott that we have over 1000 aircraft that are committed to JetWave. We got over 20 airlines wins to-date. It’s a selectable on the airbus we’ve been certified on the platforms that we mentioned earlier. We are working with Boeing to get certified as we said. So it looks pretty good. The growth is very strong double digits for us in 2017.
Scott Davis:
So what’s – how does the profitability on this stuff work, I mean, I assume this is some sort of monthly charge, but when do you start making money on something like JetWave, is it a couple of years of investment then it really starts to kick in or on day one are you shipping out units that are profitable?
Dave Cote:
Yes. We make money now.
Scott Davis:
Is that a monthly charge, Dave, or is it – how does it work?
Dave Cote:
It’s going to vary on some of that depending on the segment, so I don’t know if we’ve shared all that on the business model, but it will vary between large planes and biz jets.
Darius Adamczyk:
But to be clear Scott, I mean, there is a significant amount of equipments that goes along with it, which is sell and install model for us, so that is also helping the growth and creates that profitability for us immediately.
Dave Cote:
This is a good one.
Scott Davis:
Okay, good. That’s all I asked. Good luck guys. Thanks.
Dave Cote:
Scott?
Scott Davis:
Yes.
Dave Cote:
Before you go I will always remember that you were our first supporter back in those dark days when I first started here, so that’s not something I’ll forget and I’ve been obviously pleased that we could prove you correct for the 15 years, but thank you for that.
Scott Davis:
You’re quite welcome. I was pretty –I got lucky, that’s all. But not the one, [ex guys].
Dave Cote:
It was a bold move at this time and I appreciate it.
Scott Davis:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And we will take our question from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
Hi. Good morning.
Dave Cote:
Hey, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
First of all, congrats to Scott for getting the call right early, it was a good one, and so, congratulations to him. First question what TV show were you watching?
Dave Cote:
It was the American. I don’t know if you’ve see it. I’m only in the first season, so don’t tell me anything.
Steve Tusa:
Glad to see you’re still working out hard out there.
Dave Cote:
I got to test the system. You don’t want me fly in the plane?
Steve Tusa:
I can picture Darius in the same jet just doing something different on his iPad. So just a question on tax, can you maybe just talk about what the dynamics are around, how if repatriation come through border adjustments, just give us some color on your kind of net export position, if the Brady bill does goes through I'm sure you guys have done some analysis, what should we expect?
Dave Cote:
We’re a net exporter, so on balance it would benefit us from a tax standpoint. When it comes to repatriation, it depends on what the final deal is. If there is really high tax that’s put on in, well, that makes it a lot less interesting. So, we’ll have to judge it when we see it.
Steve Tusa:
And again how much – if it was a very low rate on repatriation, I mean would you be able to do something pretty quickly?
Dave Cote:
Sure.
Steve Tusa:
Okay.
Darius Adamczyk:
There’s going to be some latency between when some things enacted and there is some work that we have to do on earnings and profits, but it’s nothing that’s…
Tom Szlosek:
It won’t take years.
Darius Adamczyk:
No, not at all.
Steve Tusa:
Right. Okay. And then just kind of an annual run rate on Intelligrated, just kind of back of the envelope I’m getting something for this year kind of close to, you’ve given us the eight months contribution, getting something close to that a 1 billion, is that around the right number and what was the annual revenue that its finished out in 2016 for Intelligrated?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. It’s a little bit less than that, I mean around 900 what we’ve called the annual run rate, but it is growing at that 20% flip, so you can see that you could get pretty quickly the numbers you mentioned, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. So, the 900 is kind of where it’s growing today in first 2016?
Dave Cote:
That’s an annual rate.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And the margin there was relatively low this quarter, I think it was kind of low single digits. How do you kind of see that margin, I know it’s not going to be one of your best margin businesses here in the near term, but what’s kind of the trajectory of getting that to at least to double-digit range, I know it’s a growth story. I’m just curious to when the contribution really kicks up?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. As you can appreciate the first year is always a tough one for M&A particularly one of that size. So that’s why we’ve reference those lower margin rates. But when those first year charges goes away as well as when the synergies kick in, we’ll be low double digit kind of a margin rate. The interesting thing though is that the installed base that we’ve build really gives us a platform for other offering particularly on the software side, and that's one of the main reason we bought the business is to be in the supply chain and distribution arena from a technology perspective, that’s going to help that margin rate as well.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, great. And then one last quick one, Dave and Darius at the March Investor Meeting I think Dave you’re still going to be around for that one, how prominent of a role will Darius play as far as presentation and what should we expect to hear in March from Darius?
Dave Cote:
Well, they made room for my walker so I should be just fine. Darius?
Darius Adamczyk:
I think we just kind of laid out in the finalization of laying out the agenda, but you should expect me to do the majority of the presentation that Dave normally does, obviously Dave will have a role at the beginning of the conference, but the expectation should be that I’ll be leading most of the presentations that Dave led in the past.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. Well, then I’ll save the congratulations in farewell for them. Thanks a lot.
Dave Cote:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Steven Winoker from Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Steven Winoker:
Hey. Thanks and good morning. I’m glad everyone in such good spirits.
Dave Cote:
But I kind of tell you, Steve, I really enjoyed your headline this morning. It’s always nice to wrap up on a good quarter.
Steven Winoker:
You’re the best Dave. I can always count on you. Listen, I want to go back to the meetings that we had in December when you and Darius has talked about, you have used the word, animal spirits a lot and maybe the best describer of what you were seeing globally with your customer base. Could you maybe you know, it’s been a month or so since then month and half. How has that changed?
Dave Cote:
I would say, it’s changed become more positive. I’ve really been impress to see that improvement in animal spirits, small company CEOs, big company CEOs, a small banks that I’ve talked to, really quite surprising, so the animal spirits are real, there is no doubt about it. And hopefully if we can just get a few specs here with some actual actions that could be enough to really start turn the herd. I don’t think it takes us to crazy levels, the GDP growth and if it did that would be a problem. But I think we are going to see an improvement here, not ready to bid on it, we’re going to continue to plan for a slow growth global economy, but it still feels more positive than it has in a while coming off of worst recession since the great depression.
Steven Winoker:
Okay.
Darius Adamczyk:
Just to maybe add one other comments about, I certainly would agree with Dave’s commentary regard what we’re seeing, maybe the one offset to that and I think our clarity sooner rather than later would be particular helpful would be on lot of a discussions and that’s really what they are at the moment. Our discussions around the trade policies as they relate to both Mexico, China and some of the other trade partners that we have, so I think in our view that sooner that gets cleared up and resolved I actually think there could be a further uptick.
Steven Winoker:
Great. You guys talked in your main comments about your prepared comments that safety and productivity and some of the issues there, but a little more color would be helpful on the supply chain especially in terms of these things – those issues are reversing, you expect this thing to get back to normal or is some sense of timing around a little bit more color would be helpful there?
Tom Szlosek:
Sure. It’s really goes around some of the issues were primarily around some of our voice and product lines especially it was due to a supplier issue due to a transition. We do expect those issues to be cleared up in Q1 and right now we’re seeing a recovery plan that’s in placed. So it did impact us. Think about an impact in their tens of millions of dollars, hundreds, but nevertheless it had a meaningful impact by Q4, we expect the whole recovery in Q1.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. And just if I could, Solstice, the big backlog, how do you see that, I think you said, $3 billion, how do you see that playing, or how do you see that sequencing out over the next few years?
Tom Szlosek:
We see it obviously accelerating this year and continue next year as particularly with all the European new cars having Solstice in them or competitive offering, and then the further acceleration in the U.S. So we continue to seek tailwinds for that product as we move forward and continue to expect that double digit growth rate both in 2017 as well we head into 2018 and beyond.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. And sorry, just quickly on Steve’s question and you said, your net exporter on tax, you guys report $5.5 billion I think on gross export, so there been some guesses out there. Could you just put a final point on the size of the import just to give folks some idea of the order of magnitude here in the delta?
Dave Cote:
I don’t think that’s something we report today. So I’d just say, it’s a goodly amount, I’m not worried.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. All right. I’ll leave it there. Thanks.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Jeffrey Sprague from Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Dave Cote:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Hey, Dave, feeling a little nostalgic, this is last call. We’ll see in March, but good work, congrats.
Dave Cote:
Well, thanks. And I was going to wait till the end of the call, but you were , while you took some convincing you were also an early supporter and I’ll not forget that either.
Jeffrey Sprague:
All right. Well, you put it up, that’s great. By the way I was guessing you might have been watching celebrity apprentice to try to get a read on who the next President could be?
Dave Cote:
I think they already had that argument, six or seven years ago, so I think you still got to be a citizen, I mean, born here.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Just a couple of questions, can you – perhaps to Tom, but just put a final point on anything we should know on the timing of [aero] incentive quarterly in 2017, you just kind of avoid any confusion or surprises to the extent that you do have visibility on timing?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. The way I characterise it, Jeff, overall it’s a modest tailwind for the year. But the first half will be different than second half. In the first half it’s actually headwind as we talk about for the first quarter. That does moderate in the second half, into result that overall modest impact year-over-year. I’m talking less than 50 million or so.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Okay. And then I’m sorry if I missed it in the kind of the preamble, but also just a final point on commercial aero aftermarket if you could, large OE versus business jet and how flight hours track for you in the quarter?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. We expect in 2017 to be on aftermarket side to be largely aligned flight hours on the air transport side and that shows up in both the spares as well as repair overhaul businesses. I would say that there is a somewhat of a shift into the newer platforms that we talk about with the extensive build-ups on both air transport and business jet side. And that changes the install base, the character of the installed base. It freshens it. It has more units under warranty. So particularly on the business jet side that can have a timing impact while you still under warranty in some of the new platform. So, we’ll also on the business jet I hopefully track the flight hours, but you could see some little bit of a softness as a result of that fact that I explain.
Jeffrey Sprague:
But the actual performance in Q4, Tom?
Tom Szlosek:
Actual performance overall on the business jet side was low single digit for both the spares and the [RO].
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then finally, just I would imagine the pension funding took a nice repair here at the end of the year and was in pretty good shape anyhow, but is pension funding kind off the table for you guys in the foreseeable future?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. I would say that we continue to have obligations on international side. We have a number of plans. As I mentioned Germany and the UK, bigger one and there is modest contribution require there, but for the big U.S. plan it’s in pretty good shape. We see no funding requirement for the foreseeable future.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Right. Thank you.
Dave Cote:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Howard Rubel from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Howard Rubel:
Thank you very much. Good morning gentlemen.
Dave Cote:
Howard, how you’re doing?
Howard Rubel:
I’m all right, Dave. You’ve always watch headcount and you’ve always been conservative in your forecast and there’s a little bit have to in your numbers. Have of you gone back to the business units and make sure that there are some real confidence in that, I mean sometimes you have short cycle businesses and some there’s obviously backlog, but what have you done to test your managers?
Dave Cote:
Well, I’ll let, turn the bulk of the question over to Darius, but what you mean by have-to?
Howard Rubel:
Well, the second half of the year is where you expect a bit more of the performance than in the first half.
Dave Cote:
Okay. Well, aero incentives play into that as Tom mentioned and just comparisons.
Howard Rubel:
Yes, exactly, and I mean.
Dave Cote:
So, it not, it’s not like its ramp up or anything like that you have you got to have you got to believe in, it’s not that bigger deal actually, but Darius has spend a lot of time on 2017 plan with the businesses, so I’ll turn it over to Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
I think as always we plan and invest cautiously, so I think we certainly play in some investments particularly in the front end of the business in terms of sales and marketing and R&D, but we’re certainly not going to spend all of that in the first quarter, because sometimes you can certainly get ahead of yourselves and we’re going to be monitoring to see the growth is coming in and whether or not we can afford to make those investments and that going to phased throughout the years with triggers that will align with the kind of growth that we’re seeing. So this is not a situation we got to kind of spend the full investment budgets in Q1 and then hoping that things happen, it just not the way you operate and won’t now either.
Howard Rubel:
No, I understand. But what are you doing in terms of head count for the year? Are you planning a modest increase, or are you planning on keeping that relatively stable?
Darius Adamczyk:
All-in-all given the restructuring activities that we have plan, we think those going to be stable.
Tom Szlosek:
We are definitely adding on the commercial side, I mean, its across the portfolio in aerospace, PMT and other place, we are adding headcount both in developed regions as well as high growth regions.
Darius Adamczyk:
And just to add and I think you’re going to also see a mix change because particularly in former ACS organization, but really throughout we took our couple of layers of management to increase organizational speed and decrease bureaucracy and we took some of that money that we saved and reinvested it back, particularly in sales forces.
Howard Rubel:
And then one last question sort of talking about expansion in general and sort of two parts to it. One is you fixed a big chunk of your debt going forward, is the reason you still have the amount of CP outstanding, you are anticipating some benefit from cash that you can repatriate. And how are you thinking about deals for the year? I know it's always Dave reminds us every time, it’s all about timing and that’s not predictable, but within the context can you talk about possibly some of the areas you’d like to enhance?
Dave Cote:
Well, first, I’ll turn it over to Tom. But right now CP is cheap, and we’re well covered without credit lines. So it just makes sense to use it that way and we do. And you’re correct, you foretold the answer on acquisitions, depends on what becomes available and is it a price that we’re willing to pay. And Darius is not New Hampshire cheap, but he is cheap, so he’s going to be, I don’t know what adjectives he wants to put on it, but you’re not going to see it diminishing in the discipline here.
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I would echo what Dave said on the debt that’s outstanding. Dave use the word cheap, I would say, CP is actually profitable and I just kind of leave it at that, but we do have an extra amount of cash on the balance because of that and we’re trying to maintain the flexibility to expand opportunities come as Dave said, it’s a good time to be taking advantage of that.
Howard Rubel:
Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk:
Howard, so I think just reinforce what Dave said, certainly it’s going to be cheap, probably the word I would use is selective and really do our -- we always have done real diligence around what is that end market look like. What are its growth prospects? What’s the competitive environment? What it’s going evolved to? What are the disrupted technologies? We’re going to be spending what we have and we’re going to be spending even more time in those elements to make sure that these are M&A strategy continues to be highly accurate, highly predictable and more in line with our financial objectives.
Dave Cote:
And Howard, I suppose that before you go, I should add, I’ll always have great memories of going to Red Sox games with you. But I’ll also remember that you blew me off at a meeting at TRW and I just want to make sure I publicly stated it.
Howard Rubel:
Yes, but there was a cheesecake that was made up in homage for that, if you remember?
Dave Cote:
So I forget it, I’ve going to be public of it not just private any more.
Howard Rubel:
You’re very kind.
Dave Cote:
Yes.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, guys, and Dave you will be missed.
Dave Cote:
Thank you.
Joe Ritchie:
I guess, my first question, in listening to Darius, it was interesting to hear that there's some thought, as things kind of shake out, that you guys could benefit once policies are set. Clearly, you're in an export position, but I guess, I’m wondering Dave or Darius, how concerned are you guys about trade wars? Clearly, China's been a big growth engine for you. And then also secondly, there's been a lot of tweets around defense pricing, having to come down. And so what -- how do you guys feel, your position there as well? Ann then also secondly, there’s been a lot of suites around defense pricing having to come down and how do you guys feel your position there as well?
Dave Cote:
So, from -- to eco what that Darius said earlier, yes, you have to be worried about a trade war. If it gets to that point, it’s not going to be bad just for trade, but it’s going to be bad economically, it’s kind of tough to be in economic island now especially if you are the number economy in the world. So it depends on how all that gets handled. And yes, of course it’s a concern for us. On the defense side most of our stuff, you heard me say this is in the past, but defense is more of sales channel for us, it’s very little that we do where it just a single product solely for defense, it tends to just be another channel for us. So a lot of our stuff is already just done on a commercial pricing basis and I think that’s kind of mitigates any potential impact for us.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. Go ahead Darius.
Darius Adamczyk:
Just to add to that, I think obviously lot of the discussion and I would put it very much there from a discussion and kind of back and forth. It’s a obvious concern, because I think any of trade disputes particular as it relates to Mexico and China which are large key trading partners could be a detriment not just to Honeywell, but to the broader economy. But firstly I remain optimistic and I think that this is going to get resolved in a manner which is constructive for all parties involved and right now we don’t have anything definitive anyway other than pure speculation, so we do remain optimistic that it will evolve that way.
Tom Szlosek:
And Joe, just to add to Dave’s point on the defense side, many of our positions are not directly with the government. We are working with primes, and we’re not a prime. And so, they are good at negotiating with us. And we commercial ranges with them as Dave said. And for the platforms that are getting all the attention recently, I mean we’re very well aware what’s going on. I mean we’ve been on ongoing even well before this of commitments around cost with primes that we serve is our primary customer. So don’t want to dismiss their concerns, but it’s something we’re accustomed towards an environment that we operate in for years and we expect to continue.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. No, that's good to hear. And I guess, maybe as my follow-on question, it was nice to see the cash flow come through this quarter, and fully recognize that 2017 appears to be a little bit of a transition year on the cash flow. Maybe kind of talk us through again, kind of what's driving the kind of two point difference between your cash flow growth and earnings growth in 2017? And then, what's kind of the framework to think about 2018 and beyond for cash flow?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, I mean, it’s been interesting year for us as far as cash is been concern, I mean we’re clearly had some headwinds in the markets that we serve and the conversion, the first couple of quarters was not what we want it. But in the third and particular in the fourth quarter with the continued focus particular on working capital we’re able to get that conversion that you saw, that was north of 100%. Overall for the year 86%, we think that will improve as we head in the 2017, that’s going to come from better working capital performances, it’s not just in our supply chain and inventories but we have opportunities in receivables and in payable, so we’re working all of those areas as well the CapEx that we’ve talked about and it begins to moderate in 2017 and that moderation accelerates into 2018, so if we go from 1.1 billion which is that reinvestment ratio we talked about over 150%, we moderate that down to 110 or 104 or 105 2018 that gives us a nice boost as well to the free cash flow. So that should enable the conversion to continue to improve from 2017 into 2018.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, great. Thanks guys.
Operator:
We would take our next question from Nigel Coe from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for going along on the call. So Dave, just would love any thoughts you have on the pickup we saw in December. I mean, we've seen this pick up across the board. Obviously, the pro business [Indiscernible] we're hearing from DC is encouraging, but the quickness of the turn up has been surprising. So I'm just wondering, do you think it's just the absence of uncertainties that we have regarding the presidential election, Brexit, et cetera, et cetera? Do you think it's oil and gas, I mean, what do you think has caused all of this pick up?
Dave Cote:
Well, I do think and I’ve said this for several years that I don’t economist also really understand what happens after a severe financial recession, it was true that 30s and it was true of this one, and hit overall confidence was just really, really strong, really hard, and when you have the whole herds thinking about slow global growth and that’s just the way it is and that’s just the way it’s going to work, well, it becomes self-reinforcing because we all act that way. If you take the look at the conditions for recovery, it actually pretty good for while, they were been talking for number of years about how good consumer balance sheets were in the U.S. You look at capacity utilization, it’s in good shape, unemployment down 4.5 or so percent, you can argue under employment, but still employment in good shape, our bank balance sheet in the best condition, they’ve ever been, most companies balance sheets really good shape, and I really think it just need to spark. And the election assuming that we – the right things gets follow through and we don’t end up with some unintended consequences provide that sparks and I’m really encourage by what I’m seeing. Now it’s got to turn into something, but right now the feelings are better than I’ve seen them in long time and that could be enough to get the herd moving in the direction of saying, I’d better not miss this moment as oppose to just hunker down and keep waiting it out. And that’s another simple short explanation but I think that’s probably the case overall.
Nigel Coe:
Fair enough. I appreciate the color. And then, just to turn back to SPS. Obviously, it's been a challenging 2016 as per the plan. But obviously, we haven't had perfect transparency on this business in the past, large projects and inventory channel headwinds, and some of the obviously, the supply initiative you called out. Are these part and parcel of -- is this the nature of the beast, or was 2016 just a -- sort of a perfect storm of bad events? I mean, any sense on that you can give us?
Dave Cote:
Yes. I think this more review 2015 or 2016 as much more been anomaly, that kind of status quo. I think we enough -- a confluence of events which were all kind of came together on time. Number one is obviously we talked lot about the USPS contract and that conversion. Number two is, we had that channel inventory issue that have to work its way through. Three is and this was more timing related than anything else. There was a shortage of larger deals that are notable, because of this business goes through distribution and some of it goes direct and those direct deals were few and far between not just for us but really lot of competitors as well. And then four is I think we personally I think we’re improving channel programs et cetera, so we do expect this business to very much return to its performance that its enjoyed for many, many years and use 2016 as anomaly.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. And then the channel inventories, so they level now where it comes sell out?
Dave Cote:
I think most of that has been resolved, with one exception, but I would say, 70%, 80% of the challenge is behind us.
Nigel Coe:
Right. And then just finally for Tom, he called out in the PR that interest expense, 8% below 2016 level. I mean, obviously I can do the math, but it implies that interest expense closer to $300 million for 2017, a bit below what we had? That is the right number?
Dave Cote:
Yes, its sound about right, yes.
Nigel Coe:
Right. Thanks, Dave.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning, guys.
Dave Cote:
Hey, Andy.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
So some of your business tech customers have continued to cut production through 2014, you obviously didn't change your 2017 guidance in aero. So my question is, how much visibility have you had to these production cuts? And when you think about your overall negative 2% to 1% organic forecast for 2017 aero, do you have a decent contingency for more business [Indiscernible] already in your guidance, and is some stabilization in U.S. defense or commercial helo is something you were expecting, or maybe could represent a tailwind to your guidance?
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes. I’ll first start with the business jet. We for sure have the production schedules for the platforms that we’re on with the large OEM. We’ve actually been more conservative and we’re -- had taken a conservative approach in the second half, when we’re putting together the 2017 plan. So some of the cuts that actually you’re referring to, we most likely had contemplated in the guide that we gave you. So we’re not – I don’t think we’re going to be caught off guard necessarily by what you’re now seeing, hearing and reading. On the commercial helo, that’s a space as you know is heavily dependent on oil and gas, and perhaps the declines over 2016 were just reflective of what was going on in the market. I think we are going to still see some tepid conditions. I don’t foresee growth for 2017 that we view it, consider very significant at all, but as the sentiment starts to improve in oil and gas is we articulated in the prepared comments we do hope that that will turn into some benefits. And you are already seeing some of the OEMs report on the helo side some modest improvement. So, hopefully that’s a sign of things to come, we haven’t built much of it into our plan is the way to think about it.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Okay. That's helpful Tom. We know that you've had more -- you will have more difficult comparisons as the year goes on in PMT, especially late in the year. But Solstice, you continue to ramp. You told us what the UOP backlog is its good, up 5%. [Indiscernible] just really remains steady, I would surmise that UOP should continue to be solid or improve, so why would sales growth drop from the 3% to 5% you're guiding to in 1Q, as you go through the rest of the year? Again is it just you need to be conservative, it's pretty a short cycle business, is that sort of the way to think about it?
Tom Szlosek:
No, I think we’ll take it quarter by quarter. We are seeing as we said a pretty strong backlog in UOP. And hopefully the orders that materialize in the quarter will contribute to that further growth. We are not trying to signal any sudden demise between first quarter and the rest of the year for that business.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
All right, thanks a lot.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks Andy.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from John Inch from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead your line is open.
John Inch:
Thanks, good morning everyone. Dave, why don’t you ahead you left that GE appliances job. You’d be working the Chinese otherwise.
Dave Cote:
Well for a variety of reasons I’m not sorry. I’d also say John you were – while we took a little longer to convince you were also an early supporter, so thank you.
John Inch:
You're right. I wasn't that far behind, David. But you're right, I'm -- it takes me a little longer to kind of get moving in the morning. Trying to figure out how to top that trade wars question. Maybe I should ask you what you think of asteroids, but I'll leave that one for Darius. Hey safety was down 5% on the core. And the reason I ask this 3M's personal safety business is actually really good, and that company actually called out some selective pricing actions to try and stimulate some volume. Are you seeing anything competitively in that dynamic other than just the market? That's my first question.
Dave Cote:
I don’t think so John. Maybe I would say the growth rate that you mentioned in the mid single digit decline was largely the result of the supply chain and the challenges that we had and I think we would have been in line with the market otherwise and as Darius said January that gives us a nice boost for January and we get those issues behind us.
John Inch:
Yes, that’s fine. Just big picture, you guys are obviously not a beta company which makes you an investable company but if economy continues to percolate and lets’ just hypothetically say your share is lag, what are your thoughts about really starting to leverage up the balance sheet and by your stock if you know the market is not willing to comply at least in the short run?
Dave Cote:
Certainly that’s been something that we contemplated, we talked about our approach which you know the foundation is to keep the share count flat with through buybacks and to opportunistically go after further buybacks as the market conditions look attractive in the fourth quarter. We did about 2 million shares of buyback which is more than we normally would and what I would say is that we are going to continue on that approach. I mean we do have a little bit of a restrictor in terms of where our cash is located. That most of the cash is overseas so we can’t just take 9 billion of our overseas cash and put it in the buybacks, I mean its’ just not practical. Should circumstances change around the new administration and tax quality and so forth we’d obviously take a look at it, but right now our existing approach is to keep that share count flat and look for opportunities for displacement of the market to accelerate where we are...
Darius Adamczyk:
Yes, and I think overall John the approach will be similar to what’s been. So we are going to be opportunistic in terms of both buybacks and if the tax environment does change and that transaction to bring that cash from overseas becomes a bit more frictionless you know we are going to review that and we are going to review it primarily two different things. We are already committed to growing our dividends at a rate which is faster than EPS so we said that, you know about our CapEx profile which is going to be elevated this year and then start tapering off. So basically it comes down to an investment in either buybacks or M&A. And a lot of that has to do timing and marketing conditions and what we see and what’s available. But that’s kind of our rough framework and just how to think about the trade offs.
Dave Cote:
Yes it makes sense. I mean Darius obviously there is a lot of perspective that part of your mandate is going to be to try and move Honeywell’s growth higher which you probably can’t do even do some of it organically, but it’s going to require some M&A and some of the software deals, it would be greater than Intelligrated but [Indiscernible] pricing especially the market up demand you have a bias in the short run just given the run is it – let’s assume that cash was frictionless you didn’t have these repatriation issues, would you be preferring deals over share of purchase right now or is it unclear?
Darius Adamczyk:
It’s really not that clear because it all depends what deals are out there and what kind of pricing. So it’s hard to say I’m definitely going to prefer one over the other. And I think in terms of yes, I mean I certainly hope to enhance our growth rate through some of the portfolio work that we have been doing and we’ll continue to do.
Dave Cote:
But I will also there is a flip to the other side of the coin here which is I think we got to continue to maintain our discipline around what we pay and branded some of the higher growth assets usually we hire higher multiples but I think we can – if we do our homework right and look real hard and I think an example of that, I think there is still an opportunity to buy assets by companies at attractive pricing.
Darius Adamczyk:
[Indiscernible]
Dave Cote:
I don’t quite buy the premise John. Our organic growth is...
Darius Adamczyk:
A lot of that self helps here that we are doing around our usually launched commercial excellence, our [VPD] efforts which we are spending a lot of time as a company. So I think it really is a combination between what I call self help and continued work on our portfolio like we’ve done over the last, especially over the last 18 months.
John Inch:
Yes, makes sense. We’ll see you in March. Thank you. Appreciate it.
Dave Cote:
Thanks John.
Operator:
And our next question is from Andrew Obin from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Andrew Obin:
Good morning.
Dave Cote:
Hi, Andy.
Andrew Obin:
So Dave congratulations and thank and Darius look forward to hosting the call going forward. So question on top line and margin. It seems that top line was impacted a little by the effects and you have taken up margin relative to December 14. Looking at the index, looking at the currency index, it seems pretty flat from a month ago, so just wondering what particular currency is driving it and the second just looking at high margin guidance by segment, how much of it is just effects and is there any self help built in to this I mentioned versus a month ago?
Dave Cote:
Yes, Andrew when you go back to our guidance I mean we were pretty clear on the FX assumptions that we used for 2017. Our normal process is to update the FX rates at the end of the year. And so, when we do that, you end up with the impact mostly due to – if we had used for example one ten is our planning rate for the year. We changed that to 105 and that has an impact. The bottom line though is that the organic growth rates do not change, we’re still calling 1% to 3% EPS still stays the same at that 6% to 10% growth and the cash conversion remains the same. So it’s a matter of just picking the number and finalizing it as is our normal process.
Andrew Obin:
And on the margin question?
Dave Cote:
Yes I mean the change in the margin is solely due to lower sales in the same segment profit dollars, because as you know -- of course keeps our segment margin protected.
Andrew Obin:
And then a question on China, they had a big stimulus last spring you guys if your trip this summer you did a very good job sort of highlighting the fact that there is a lot more growth in China then those people – thinking at the same time. We are sort of starting to see it in the numbers. Given that the party Congress is in the fall, how much juice do you think there is in this growth beyond 2017 and how concerned are you guys as to sort of growth decelerating into the second half of 2017 in China?
Dave Cote:
Well it’s kind of tough to predict exactly what’s going to happen to China economically to your point especially with their I guess homed elections coming up. But I think overall we are still long term believers in China, so whether they have a lower growth here than what they have had in the past. At the end of the day our prospects there are still extremely good and you look at all the businesses we are in, our opportunities to gain share, to get the tier 3 and tier 4 cities still just tremendous. So I don’t see it having that huge an impact on our performance.
Andrew Obin:
And if I can just squeeze one more, just some color on HBS you touched on it but can you provide just a little bit more color on region, which are positive and which are negative?
Dave Cote:
I don’t have that on my finger tips, it’s probably good follow up question for Mark on the call later or you can talk to him later.
Andrew Obin:
Thanks a lot.
Dave Cote:
Thanks, Andy.
Operator:
That will conclude today’s Q&A session. I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Dave Cote for any additional or closing remarks.
Dave Cote:
Thanks. After 15 years at the helm, this is my last earnings call as some of you pointed out. It’s been an honor to lead the Honeywell team for this many years. And all of us are proud of what we’ve accomplished. I’ll have to say we are even more excited about what’s coming. Our outperformance will continue because we’ve invested heavily in people, process and portfolio to do the seed planting that we’ve always done. We do well today not just because of what we are doing today, but also because of what we did three and five years ago. That our performance will continue under Darius. He is just as driven as I am and he’s smarter. We have many many terrific years ahead of us. This is an exciting time to be part of Honeywell and you’ll all benefit from it. Now while it is a bitter sweet moment or a time for me because it would be fun to continue running Honeywell in these great years to come. It’s worth a little time to also focus on the suite side of it. Next weekend we will again celebrate that quintessential American Holiday, the Super Bowl. And in that celebration it’s important to remember that we are all Patriots. Please join me in supporting and celebrating America’s team. Thanks.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - VP, IR Dave Cote - Chairman & CEO Tom Szlosek - SVP & CFO
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Steven Winoker - Bernstein Howard Rubel - Jefferies Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer
Operator:
Welcome to Honeywell's Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's third quarter 2016 earnings conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO Dave Cote and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.Honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance on our form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the third quarter and share with you our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2016. And as always, we will leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.
Dave Cote:
Good morning, everyone. As we previewed during our update call two weeks ago for the third quarter, we reported earnings per share of $1.60 or $1.67, excluding the $0.07 we deployed to restructuring. We expect to return to double-digit EPS growth in the fourth quarter which yields our full-year EPS growth target of 8% to 9% that we communicated on October 7. Q3 was a quarter of important changes in many areas that positioned the Company for better performance next year. These include the split of the former automation and controls solutions segment, ACS; the acquisition of Intelligrated; the sale of our government services business, HTSI; and the spin of resins and chemicals. Combined with nearly $250 million in restructuring actions, these changes are lasting improvements to the portfolio that yield benefits beginning in the fourth quarter and into 2017 when we expect year-over-year benefits exceeding $175 million from the restructuring actions alone. In the fourth quarter we'll lap the impact of our U.S. Postal Service project and productivity solutions, the UOP return to growth and expect a continued ramp of our Solstice low global warming product sales. Darius and Tom will provide more details about 2017 during our annual outlook call in December, but we have a favorable setup. The fourth quarter momentum continues, our long cycle businesses are improving and our inflections start to kick in. It remains a slow-growth environment, but we've continued to invest heavily in the business, in capital projects, research and development, hiring salespeople, winning content on new aerospace platforms, improving our growth profile through strategic M&A and divestitures and executing on restructuring projects to improve our fixed cost position. With all the work we've done to improve the growth profile our continued emphasis on the Honeywell operating system and our performance culture, we're well-positioned for long term growth and are committed to creating long term shareowner value. On October 7, we communicated all the changes or moving parts that occurred in the quarter. In our attempt to lend transparency to all the moving parts, we lost sight of the importance of conveying our confidence in our future, the fourth quarter, 2017 and beyond. For that miscommunication I take full responsibility. Last week we released a number of charts explaining why we were confident in our future. We've included several of those charts in this morning's package because we wanted to explain a bit behind each of them. We've continued to invest heavily, seed planting if you will and the returns will be there. We've outperformed historically and will continue to do so. We largely discussed third quarter a couple weeks ago, so much of today's presentation focuses on the future and why we think Honeywell is an exciting place for you to be. So with that, I will turn it over to Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Good morning. I'm now on slide 3 with a quick recap of our third quarter results. Reported sales of $9.8 billion increased 2%, primarily reflecting the impact of acquisitions. On a core organic basis sales were down 3%. Our growth was led by process solutions, transportation systems and home and building technologies, but was more than offset by softness in business jets, defense and space, productivity solutions and UOP. The softness in UOP has moderated throughout the year to the extent that in the fourth quarter we expect high single-digit sales growth in that business. The decline in segment margins in the quarter reflects the impact of OEM incentives, M&A integration costs and the lower volumes partially offset by benefits from previously funded restructuring. Earnings per share were up 4% to $1.67, excluding the restructuring charge deployed from the retroactive portion of the stock compensation accounting change. The individual restructuring projects in the third quarter have an average payback of about two years and provide attractive accretion in both 2017 and 2018. Free cash flow in the quarter was $1.3 billion. That's 103% conversion on net income. We continued to put substantial capital to work for our shareowners, our CapEx and reinvestment ratio was 150% this quarter and we bought back approximately $1.9 billion worth of Honeywell shares through the end of the third quarter. Let me move on to slide 4 to discuss the segment performance. In aero, the sales decline is consistent with what we previewed. The negative 6% headline number reflects the softness we described in our business jet OEM revenues and in defense and space, but also to a larger degree the increase in OEM incentives. I'll discuss the incentives more later, but in the third quarter year-over-year increase in OEM incentives drove 4% of the minus 6% decline in the top-line growth for aerospace. Excluding the impact of OEM incentives, the commercial aviation OEM business was down 8%, with the business jet softness being partially offset by steady growth in air transport. Our commercial aftermarket business was up 1% on a core organic basis. We're seeing continued repair and overhaul demand within air transport, but the softness in the business jet market is impacting the aftermarket and we've seen fewer engine repair and overhaul events as a result. Defense and space was down 6% on a core organic basis, driven by program completions in U.S. space and international defense and lower volumes for commercial helicopters, primarily related to oil and gas. While disappointing, we're encouraged by the double-digit increase in defense and space year-to-date orders and backlog, although as you can appreciate much of this activity is longer term in nature extending into 2017 and beyond. Transportation system sales increased 3% organically in the quarter, driven by new program launches in light vehicles gas segment where we saw growth of nearly 20%. Aerospace segment margins were down, reflecting the increase in OEM incentives and lower volumes. In home and building technologies, sales were up 5% on a core organic basis driven by growth in both products and distribution businesses. The products business grew 1% organically thanks to more than 15% growth in China and strength in the Americas environmental and energy solutions business. The distribution business was up 8% organically in the quarter, driven by continued strength in the global distribution business and energy and services contracts within building solutions. The segment margin rate declines, excluding the impact of M&A, were primarily due to the mix of products versus distribution revenues this quarter. In performance materials and technology, sales were down 3% on a core organic basis driven by UOP, partially offset by strong global megaproject conversion in process solutions which was up 3% organically. UOP sales were down 10% on a core organic basis, driven primarily by declines in gas processing and licensing and partially offset by higher catalyst shipments. Notably UOP's backlog was up 15% at the quarter end. Demand for our catalyst continues to be strong, driven by reloads as a result of increased refinery turnarounds. Advanced material sales were down 2% on a core organic basis as demand for our Solstice line of low global warming materials within fluorine products continues to be strong, partially offsetting the significant market pricing headwinds within resins and chemicals. These resins and chemicals headwinds are obviously now behind us as a result of the AdvanSix spin. EMT segment margin was up 80 basis points to 21.6% driven by strong productivity and cost controls, higher catalyst shipments and the favorable impact of acquisition integrations. Finally in safety and productivity solutions sales were down 8% on a core organic basis. The safety business was down 3%, primarily due to softness in the general personal protective equipment business and lower demand for retail products. The productivity solutions business was down 12% on a core organic basis due to a tough comparison in the third quarter of 2015 and continued channel headwinds in productivity solutions. We will not face the U.S. Postal Service headwind next quarter as we've said. Segment margin was down 90 basis points, excluding M&A, to 15.2%, primarily reflecting the lower volumes. Slide 5 shows our path to the fourth quarter EPS of $1.74 to $1.78. It's very consistent with what we have previously articulated a couple weeks ago. We expect UOP to grow at high single-digits on a core organic basis driving significant sequential quarter-to quarter EPS improvement. Catalyst sales are expected to be up about 20% in the quarter and licensing and equipment sales will be up about 15%. Additionally in process solutions, we expect to see the normal fourth quarter pickup in our short cycle products and services businesses. We continue to closely monitor the oil and gas market, but all in all our outlook has improved. We expect a 2% to 3% improvement from safety and productivity solutions and $0.03 to $0.04 from restructuring. I spoke earlier about the rapid paybacks we expect on the restructuring we funded in the third quarter. All in we have a funded pool of more than $400 million in restructuring projects. All other is a $0.05 to $0.06 headwind reflecting the removal of resins and chemicals and the government services business from the portfolio, the normal one-time M&A cost from Intelligrated and an expected lower number of option exercises resulting in lower income tax benefits. This works to a Q4 earnings range of $1.74 to $1.78 per share. That's a 10% to 13% increase from the same period in 2015. Let's turn to slide 6 to provide some further color on our fourth quarter outlook. We expect that sales declines in aerospace will continue into the fourth quarter, particularly in business jets and defense and space. We expect our total commercial OEM business to be down nearly 20%, with growth in air transport and regional more than offset by declines in business and general aviation. In our aftermarket business, repair and overhaul will moderate slightly on lower events and lower aircraft utilization, while growth in spares should be steady, primarily due to the new jet wave installations and channel and customer demand. The backlog in defense and space, as I said, is improving as we head into fourth quarter, but we still expect the business to be down in the mid-single digit range on lower volumes globally. And finally, transportation systems, we see continued global gas turbo penetration offset by slower diesel penetration which would drive flat to slightly higher core organic sales in the quarter. In HBT we expect organic growth in the low single-digit range in both the products and distribution businesses. The reported growth is much higher, reflecting the Elster smart energy business, where we have significant rollouts in the UK and expected strength in the Americas gas business. On the product side, sales in environmental and energy solutions business will continue to improve driven by new product introductions in the Americas and strong double-digit growth in China and India. In the distribution segment which consists of the global distribution business and building solutions, we expect strong backlog conversions, specifically in our energy business and in EMEA and China. Our global distribution business will grow at a slower rate due to very tough comps from the fourth quarter of 2015 when this business grew nearly 12%. Margin expansion will be driven mostly by productivity net of inflation, the benefits of restructuring, higher volumes and commercial excellence offset slightly by the impact of the Elster acquisition. In PMT we see a return to growth in UOP driven by continued strong orders. Orders were up 9% in the third quarter, particularly in the catalyst business. We also see some traction on the equipment side. Our orders over the past three months were over $700 million and we're expecting a similar amount in the fourth quarter. Importantly we see oil prices stabilizing in the $50 range. Generally activity is picking up across the globe including in China and some projects that had been delayed or stalled are now resuming. Our year-to-date book-to-bill is 1.1 and was closer to 1.3 in the third quarter and our win rates across all lines of business in UOP are strong. UOP should grow by high single digits in the fourth quarter as a result. In process solutions, sales will be down in the mid-single digit range on lower megaproject sales growth. However, this should improve in 2017 as we replenish the backlog on anticipated healthy project orders in the fourth quarter. Finally, in advanced materials core organic sales growth will be north of 10% driven by Solstice which will grow considerably this quarter and from higher volumes in specialty products across all lines of business. The significant increase in segment margin will be driven by the higher catalyst shipment content, volume growth in fluorine products from Solstice and the favorable margin impact from the spinoff of AdvanSix. In safety and productivity solutions we're finally past the headwinds associated with the U.S. Postal Service deployment and as a result we expect the business will be flat to slightly down in the fourth quarter which represents a nearly 800 basis point improvement sequentially. This is also supported by a slightly easier setup in industrial safety driven by prior-year oil- and gas-related declines. We should see things improve overall from here, especially with the addition of Intelligrated which we continue to be very excited about. We've taken aggressive cost actions to address the slowdown in the third quarter. This should provide additional runway for margin expansion in the fourth quarter and into 2017. With more than $1.9 billion in share repurchases this year, our share count will be approximately 1% lower in the fourth quarter. And finally as a result of last quarter's adoption of the stock compensation accounting standard, we now expect that our tax rate will be approximately 25% in the fourth quarter and about 24.5% for the full year. Let's turn to slide 7 to discuss our expected full-year segment margin. On a reported basis we expect to be down approximately 70 basis points, but this belies the significant operational improvement we expect to deliver approximately 80 basis points. We continued to realize volume leverage in our growth segments and work with our suppliers to drive down material costs. Additionally, by deploying the Honeywell operating system and our restructuring capacity, we continued to reduce our fixed costs throughout the enterprise, including in our plants and our administrative functions. These are permanent improvements in our cost structure that will drive significant margin expansion as growth more fully permeates the portfolio. Offsetting this operational goodness are the upfront effects of investments we're making to improve the future. You'll recall that we're completing the first year of our nine recent acquisitions. This first year is heavily burdened by costs for inventory accounting, amortization of intangibles, deal costs and integration costs. This will be an approximate 50-basis point headwind this year. OEM incentives are a 60-basis points headwind. I have a later slide on what these OEM incentives mean for our future growth, but given the conservative accounting we deploy in this area, we're experiencing a $0.25 EPS headwind in 2016 that will not repeat. Finally, the foreign currency movement from 2015, principally the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, has driven approximately 40 basis points of margin rate headwind. Based on our hedging positions, we expect this to turn to a similar size benefit in 2017. So as you can see, we expect to end the year with segment margin at 18.1%, but are well positioned for 2017, as the favorable operational impacts from the Honeywell operating system continue and the impact from the other factors recedes or flips around. Now on slide 8, we're reaffirming our full-year EPS growth target of 8% to 9% or $6.60 to $6.64, excluding the anticipated fourth quarter pension mark-to-market adjustment of about $1.5 billion. This is based on current discount rates and asset return assumptions as of September 30 and is driven primarily by the decline in interest rates. The sales and segment margin guidance you see here is consistent with a preview from October 7. With a lower than anticipated net income, principally in aerospace, we now expect that free cash flow will be between $4.2 billion and $4.3 billion for the full year. Slide 9 summarizes the end market dynamics that we anticipate in 2017 versus what we're experiencing this year. First in homes and buildings we'll continue to see steady growth driven by new product introductions, connected offerings and the expansion of our install base. Next the dynamics we describe for commercial aviation will continue in 2017, including declines in business jet market, steady performance in air transport driven by program ramp ups including on the A350 platform and a reasonably stable aftermarket. What will change in commercial aviation is that the massive 2016 headwinds from OEM incentives will become a modest tailwind. We expect the declines in defense and space will moderate a bit in 2017, but we anticipate that demand in our commercial helicopter and domestic space businesses will continue to be slow, will no longer have the impact from our government services businesses following the sale of HCSI and in addition our long cycle backlogs are improving, as I noted earlier. More than three quarters of our expected fourth quarter sales are firm which is above where we were at this point heading into the third quarter. To moderate the effects of the overall declines in aerospace, we've made significant improvements to our cost structure while investing for growth, including sales head count, research and development and in new products like JetWave. We anticipate stronger performance in our businesses that serve the industrial and workers end market. We'll no longer have the U.S. Postal Service comp and Intelligrated will contribute to growth. We also expect our safety sales will improve over the course of the year. The vehicles market will continue to be strong, with increasing global penetration of turbos and growth in light vehicle gas applications. We also expect modest improvements on the commercial vehicle side in 2017 and on a global basis we expect turbo penetration to be approximately 40%. Lastly, advanced materials will be a strong contributor, highlighted by more than 25% growth in our Solstice products. Solstice is meeting or exceeding all expectations and is expected to be about a $1 billion business for us by 2020. Let me turn to slide 10 for a preview of 2017. We've not finalized our 2017 planning and as Dave said, Darius and I will provide a full update in December upon the completion of the process. We expect a continued slow-growth environment, but also believe that the inflections we've mentioned are still intact to enable us to grow faster than the markets we serve. With that said, we're taking a conservative approach to the planning framework, specifically relative to business jets, defense and space and commercial helicopters. While we're targeting double-digit EPS growth, we're not counting on a recovery and need specific end markets to achieve that. We continue to work on the things we can control and we see the result of this in the forecasted 45 to 75 basis points improvement in the margins on low single-digit core organic sales growth. Still, we're constantly pressed on why we feel confident in our ability to deliver in 2017. Let's spend a few minutes explaining the rationale underlying our outlook. Let me move to slide 11. First off, we've continued to deploy large amounts of shareowner capital. We've increased our dividend 15% in the each of the last two years and including the $0.5 billion that value created through the spinoff of AdvanSix, that's nearly $2.4 billion of dividends alone in 2016. And we're committed to further growing the dividend faster than our rate of earnings growth. On share repurchase we've been very active in 2016 and have already matched our total repurchases for all of last year. You'll recall that it takes about $1 billion of repurchases each year to keep our share count flat and we've been doing twice that amount. M&A activity has significantly accelerated over the last 18 months. For the past few quarters we've been dealing with the incremental acquisition and amortization costs from these deals and as that begins to roll off the contribution from this M&A will really be felt. And the M&A benefits do not even take into account the sales and commercial synergies we expect from combining sales forces, leverages Honeywell's channels and high growth regions and from general commercial excellence that we drive in our own businesses. Needless to say we expect M&A will be a significant value driver in 2017 and for many years to come. Slide 12 recaps the deals we've completed. Each of these businesses participates in an attractive fast growing market where they are perceived as leaders in their space. They're accretive to Honeywell's growth rates. We believe there's a big opportunity for us to expand a number of these businesses into high growth regions given the Honeywell presence, leadership teams and infrastructure already in place. Many of these businesses also have a strong technology and software component and that will drive superior growth and improving gross and segment margins. I also don't want to lose the point that we continue to find strong new talent through our acquisitions that makes the combined companies better and further drives our software and technology initiatives. Let me turn to slide 13. We've talked extensively about OEM incentives. What you need to remember is one, they're investments that have gotten us on a number of attractive new business jets and air transport platforms that build upon our already strong installed base. Two, we expense these incentives to our P&L as they're incurred, a more conservative treatment than most of our peers. Three, there's a very clear visibility to the incentives. They're negotiated years in advance and any accelerated recognition of the cost does not change the aggregate cost, only the timing of the recognition as you saw in the third quarter. And lastly, 2016 is our peak for these investments. They're still significant, but they begin to decline in 2017 as you can see on the chart. We're excited about the extensions to our aerospace franchise that these investments are enabling. You can see on slide 14 some of the other investments that we've made to grow our business. We've talked extensively over the past few years about our capital expenditures. We have been investing in about 1.6 times depreciation for the last several years. The returns on the incremental investments like Solstice are phenomenal, twice that of any M&A deal we could do. And while they do temporarily dilute free cash flow, the investments are essential to our growth. We're nearing completion of this investment cycle after which we expect the reinvestment rate to normalize to between 1.0 and 1.2 times depreciation. We also continue to invest in research and development at a rate that's approximately 7.5% of sales, including R&D that's customer funded. Our R&D is fueling the next generation of Honeywell products, including our software offerings. And to ensure we have enough feet on the street to win in our end markets, we're also investing heavily in our sales force. You may think of this as a short term investment, but it's not. A salesperson really isn't productive enough in his first year on the job, so we have to ensure we have enough sales employees in place today to support tomorrow's business. The same applies in our high growth regions, where our head count has grown nearly 14% in the last three years and we appointed more than $260 million to restructuring so far this year. Slide 15 has more detail about capital investments in performance materials and technologies. These projects add capacity to our highly profitable businesses like Solstice within flooring products and catalyst within UOP. They deliver returns in the 30% to 40% range and we expect more than $1 billion in Solstice revenues per year by 2020. After that and this is timely, we'll see additional demand generated by the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol which was just agreed to this week. In UOP we continued to add catalyst capacity in the U.S. and abroad to support our large installed base in both refining and petrochemical segments. On slide 16 we profile another breakthrough technology that we're investing in, the connected aircraft. Our vision is to create a fast, seamless online experience for passengers, pilots and operation staff on the ground. To supplement our core product, we've invested in M&A in this space with EMS, Aviaso, SatCom1 and Com Dev and those investments are beginning to pay off. With Com Dev's content on 95% of commercial satellites, we have insight into the networks and services that are going to be needed for connectivity now and in the future. EMS and SatCom1 provide us with antenna, modem and router technology which is helping us to optimize the way data travels through the aerospace ecosystem, providing our customers with incremental value versus the competition. Lastly, Aviaso provides the software and data analytics necessary to service airlines. We have recent wins with Etihad Airways, Finnair and Lufthansa Cargo to support this. With all these capabilities, we're now able to supply an aircraft with a big data pipe, JetWave, that is 1,000 times faster and costs 20 times less per megawatt than the previous systems. No one has the solution that we do with JetWave. Combined with our legacy expertise around avionics, mechanical equipment and services we're positioned to win in the emerging $7 billion connected aircraft space. As you heard Tim say, we anticipated the connected aircraft business would be larger than $1 billion for us by 2020. Let's turn to slide 17 to talk about another great position in a good industry; turbo chargers. As you've heard us say before, we're in the golden age of turbos, turbo charger adoption continues to be driven by regulations around fuel economy and emissions. To comply auto makers are downsizing engines. But to preserve engine performance they look to our technology which provides 30% more torque, 25% percent greater fuel efficiency and 20% lower carbon dioxide emissions. In the graph on the right you can see that these factors are driving incredible growth and penetration. Today more than one-third of all vehicles have a turbo charger and by 2020 we anticipate roughly half of all vehicles will have one on board. And every year when we look at our data, our long term forecast for turbo penetration improves. This is a fantastic growth story for us both in the short term and long term, particularly as adoption of our light vehicle gas applications continues to ramp up. We continue to win more than 40% of the OEM platform competitions globally. Slide 18 highlights another aspect of why we're so well positioned for the future, our software capability. We've been developing software for a long time, much longer than the industrial Internet of Things became popular. More than half of our 23,000 engineers globally are developing software. More than 75% of our HOS Gold breakthrough goals are software-related. While our expertise has traditionally been in software that is embedded within our products, we also have about $1 billion of highly profitable stand-alone software revenue. That number is expected to grow significantly over the next five years. The engineers are building on our strong industrial heritage to blend physical products with software. Last year Honeywell became the first and only large western company to announce that it is 100% compatible with capability maturity model integration, that's CMMI level 5, across all global operations and in every business. This is a big deal. It means we can develop products faster and at a lower cost than many of our competitors. We also continue to make investments in our engineering base to ensure we have the best pool of talent driving the software growth at Honeywell. Let me turn to slide 19 and talk about high growth regions which represent about 40% of the world GDP and collectively are growing north of 4%. When you compare that to the other 60% of the world which is growing at less than 2%, it's clearly essential that we're there and we need to be local if we're going to be successful in HGRs. We saw these trends early and made the right investments to insure that we'd get on our fair share of growth. Since 2003 we've increased our census in high growth regions by 220%. Our presence is impressive, 140 offices, 70 manufacturing facilities and over 58,000 employees. And thanks to our investments, Honeywell's business in high growth regions has grown at 12% CAGR. Today HGRs represent about one quarter of our overall sales growth and we expect that number will continue to grow. Slide 20 conveys the attractive trends and dynamics for the markets in which we participate. Light hours are growing and passengers are demanding an on the ground experience when it comes to connectivity. Our aerospace business is leading the way with JetWave. Turbo penetration is increasing. We have the global scale and industry leading technology that is being adopted by auto makers around the world. When it comes to the Internet of Things, we have over 11,000 engineers working on valuable software solutions that are helping our customers optimize their operations. In high growth regions we're addressing demand in the world's fastest growing economies through innovative local products and solutions. In PMT we've invested for growth through capital expansions. It's too early to call a recovery, but we're seeing signs that the bottom may have been reached in oil and gas, including month-over-month improvement in recounts and drilled but uncompleted wells and a stabilizing oil price. We have a broad catalyst portfolio that allows us to capture a large percentage of upcoming catalyst reloads in areas where we participate. We also have leading modular gas processing technology for midstream gas applications and strong positions in refining and petrochemicals. We've also invested in capacity for Solstice which is being rapidly adopted by automotive and building customers throughout the world to meet the demand for low global warming products as HFCs are phased out. And nearly half of Honeywell's current portfolio is dedicated to energy efficiency. The future is bright for Honeywell. The people and technologies we have and the investments we have made are tied to favorable trends in fast growing industries. All this is going to drive future growth. With that, I'll turn it back over it Dave.
Dave Cote:
So to summarize, we've made the right investments. We've taken the right portfolio actions and we have industry-leading products and services in the right markets. The future will be quite good for us. We continue to invest heavily to drive positions on winning platforms in aerospace and research and development to bring new breakthrough products and technologies to market, in salespeople and repositioning and in capacity expansions and highly profitable businesses, including UOP and fluorine products. We'll see the benefits of this next year, 2018 and many years to come. You'll hear Darius and Tom talk a lot more about this in the outlook call that we'll have in mid-December. With that, let me turn it over to Mark for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We'll take our first question from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Davis:
You've had a few weeks now, we've had three weeks in October and UOP is a pretty lumpy business. I mean your confidence seems to be really high that comes back in 4Q. Is that based on what you've actually started to see in October or just a function of the backlogs there so it should start to get released?
Dave Cote:
This is mostly orders that are already there and that the guys have actually been doing a fair amount of the production already to be able to ship into the fourth quarter. So we have a high level of confidence on UOP. Tom, anything you want to add?
Tom Szlosek:
No, the visibility to the install base is pretty good. Much of the business is reload activity and we're tied at the hip with the customers.
Scott Davis:
Yes, no I get it. Let me ask it a different way. I've covered you long enough to know that this stuff gets -- something pushed from December 20 to January 3rd, it wouldn't surprise me in UOP because that's just the nature of the business. So I know you've got the orders, but your confidence in actually seeing it in 4Q versus 1Q 2017 based on what you've seen in October. Has that changed? That's what I'm trying to ask. I didn't ask it very well.
Dave Cote:
No.
Scott Davis:
No meaning, confidence is better or--
Dave Cote:
No, no, no. We're in the same place we were. We feel good about it. I suppose there's always that chance that it can happen, but the lumpiness is not so much moving from that we missed a shipment as it is that when the shipments are going to occur. They're already planned. They've already got the orders. They're already producing. We don't see any issues there.
Scott Davis:
Okay. I was just trying to get my arms around that. It's tough for us to model it. My only other question is the PMT capacity investments you've made, when you roll that stuff out and you start producing in 2017, do you make a margin on that right away or do you have to hit a certain level of capacity utilization before you really start to make a margin in that?
Dave Cote:
There's typical startup costs, but it's a disciplined startup process. I mean, of course in the first few months you're not running at full optimization, but it isn't very long after that you do achieve the impacts of the volume that are coming through.
Scott Davis:
Okay. So you're not losing money out of the gate, per se. You can actually start making money day one, but obviously that margin ramps up when your utilization goes higher.
Dave Cote:
That's the expectation, yep.
Tom Szlosek:
That's true. Yes, it's not a drag from the beginning.
Scott Davis:
Okay. I was just trying to get my arms around it. Thank you, I do appreciate it.
Dave Cote:
Thanks Scott.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Funny we're talking about slippage on this call. You have done a pretty good job over time of calling annual guidance over the last ten years, so just an interesting question. But when it comes to aerospace, you're exiting the year at a pretty negative trend line on organic. I mean, just to think about the comps next year that gives you confidence that you can hold aero close to the flat line organic. I'm just kind of thinking about the direction of that business definitely suggests that it should be down next year organically, just kind of the early read on that.
Dave Cote:
Well, let me put this into context of total 2017, because I'm assuming that question will come up also. We're going to plan sales conservatively based on what we're seeing this quarter and that will include aero being on the more negative side when we think about business jets and commercial helicopters. So we want to make sure that we're consistent with what we're seeing and that we're not Pollyannaish in any way with our sales planning. HTSI and RNC will also be coming -- the government services business and the resins and chemicals business will also be coming out, so we'll have had like three quarters of both businesses being in in 2016, they'll be out in 2017. We also have a number of pluses, so we'll have the impact of restructuring, the aero incentives begins to decline. We've got the impact of all the acquisitions that we did and you understand the first year hit we normally take from there. Interest expense should be a positive. UOP, SPS, Solstice, those should all be positives. And we're going to put all this together and have a much more in-depth discussion in December after we've had a chance to go through all the AOP planning and Darius and Tom are going to take the lead on that. And that's why we feel comfortable in saying that even in this slower macro and we think more difficult aero side on biz jets and commercial helos in particular, that we feel comfortable with the statements that we've made about 2017. Hopefully that helps.
Steve Tusa:
No, that helps a lot and that's still embedded in the -- and thanks for the follow up by the way, allowing me to ask a follow up. And you think that's embedded in the low single-digit guidance that you're giving? You can still grow the Company with aero down?
Dave Cote:
Yes.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And then one last question for you. When it comes to buyback and capital allocation decisions, who's steering the ship right now? I mean is that collaborative with Darius? Is that, who's making the call on perhaps doing the bigger buyback? The stock obviously took a hit, your presentation on Mad Money suggested it was overdone, so who's making the call on the buyback at this stage?
Dave Cote:
Well, consistent with our policy over the last 15 years, I try to make all of these decisions with no input from anybody. No, of course it's collaborative. We make no decisions here without trying to get input from everybody and making sure that everybody weighs in. So yes, as you might imagine we have a lot of discussion about it and from time to time we let Darius out of that closet that I talked about in the last call so we get his input on things. It's obviously collaborative. Darius is involved. Tom is. We discuss it with the Board. It's not a surprise to anyone -- well, except maybe externally when we do announce it, because we want to be thoughtful in what we do. And the way we've always tried to run the Company, not just on buybacks but any decision, is that we want all the input, all the opinions conflicting, agreeing, whatever they are, so that at the end of the day, we make the best decisions. I've always felt like we get measured on the quality of our decisions, not on whether somebody was right or wrong from the beginning and that's how we handle the buyback decisions also.
Tom Szlosek:
I was just going to add one element to that, Steve. I mean we're obviously subject to the blackout periods in trading of our stock, so that comes into play from a timing perspective. But as we've referenced in the past, we do have some programmed 10B51 types of plans in place that do a modest amount of activity based on certain levels of trading in the stock.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, that's fine. You don't need to make it some big splashy headline. Thanks.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe:
Good morning. I do want to echo the comments from Steve. It's amazing how quickly a decade of execution gets lost in noise and the transparency provided around this second half mess I think is well appreciated. So I just wanted to say that. So aerospace the near term outlook is pretty ugly. Biz jet we all know how bad that is right now. When do you see the crossover point between biz jet moderating, the decline moderating and then the ATROE starting to pick up? Is that a second half 2017 event or do you think it's earlier than that?
Dave Cote:
The ATR side has actually performed fine and we're going to continue to see things like A350 pick up, so that's going to be a benefit to us. The biz jet side and commercial helos should I would suspect are going to continue to be a market drag for us next year. When we put all that together, aerospace is still going to be an important performer for us overall. You saw a fair amount of the restructuring also occur there and we think it's going to be a good performer for us in the long term. But 2017 is still going to be little bit tougher overall, I think when you put all that together.
Nigel Coe:
Is it too early to have confidence in growth or is it too touch and go to make that call?
Dave Cote:
Are you talking about growth in the business overall?
Nigel Coe:
For 2017, yes.
Dave Cote:
For 2017 we want to go through the AOP planning to make sure that we understand all the pieces, but at this point I think we're probably going to plan this more conservatively than less. So I'd say overall probably lower sales next year than this year will be the way that we'll plan for it. We really haven't gone through all our planning process yet.
Nigel Coe:
And then as a follow on, the $1 billion forecast for Solstice in 2020 is obviously a big number. Can you just remind us where is the backlog right now for Solstice? What is the current revenue base and how do you think the Rwanda agreement, how do you think that expands the scope for Solstice?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, in rough order of magnitude we're probably a $400 million or so business currently and that continues to grow nicely as we've said. I mean it's more right now mobile air conditioning which is a brand new segment for us, but as we continue to progress through it, we get into buildings and blowing agents and other things. So it becomes a broader application for us. As far as the new regulation, it remains to be seen how that agreement will impact us, but our forecasts are not dependent upon anything that happened this past week. We do see it as potential opportunity, but we need to sort through and fully understand those impacts close to 2020.
Dave Cote:
I would say though, Nigel, it's clearly a good development and world's focus on low global warming potential products makes a difference. If you take a look at the HFCs that our product replaces, HFCs are up over 1,300 times worse than a single-molecule CO2. If you take a look at HFOs, our invention, it's actually 0.8 molecules of CO2, so like 1,500 times better than what you would see from HFCs. So it's a significant new product. There is a recognition that HFCs do have a big impact, negative impact on global warming potential and Solstice, our HFO is just a tremendous solution for it. And the faster it gets adapted, the more quickly governments will actually be working to stem the tide of global warming. So we think it's going to be quite important.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin:
I missed the preview call because I assumed nothing bad was going to happen. So I was out of the office. So I'm going to have a follow up question to that. Just on these incremental aero incentives, my understanding is that these are in fact tied to faster shipments to customers than previously agreed. And if that's the case, what's the impact on revenue and profit for aero in 2017 from taking higher incentives in 2016?
Tom Szlosek:
So Andrew let me clarify that. The incentives become due and are recorded and recognized in our financials when the milestones that govern that incentive are reached. The milestones are generally development or performance-related milestones. They vary by customer. So for example, if you hit the first test flight or entry into service or other types of engineering milestones, those could trigger an incentive being owed and due and it's recognized in our financials. When you look at 2016, our P&L has been significantly burdened by, to the tune of $0.25 as I said earlier of EPS, by incremental OEM incentives. Next year this is the peak year and it starts to tail off next year. We get a modest tailwind and then it really accelerates into 2018 and 2019 in terms of the tail wind, yes.
Andrew Obin:
No, I just want to understand accounting relationship. Do incentives, because my understanding is that incentives, higher incentives do rely on hitting milestones earlier as you said does translate ultimately into faster shipments to the customers. Is that the right way of thinking about it? Is there a connection?
Tom Szlosek:
It's not a direct connection because, I mean the incentives for us are largely based on the development process and bringing the aircraft to production. And so while you might incrementally get to faster production, you still have to have orders, you still have to have selling and those cycle times generally are unaffected by -- or incentives are generally unaffected by those activities.
Andrew Obin:
And just a follow-up question.
Dave Cote:
Andrew, I should add these are good investments for us to be making. We expense everything as incurred. We don't put it on the balance sheet, so we take our hits as they're occurring, unlike others who put it on the balance sheet and you see it over time. So for us while it's painful in the short term, it sure as heck helps where you're going in the long term. And these were decisions that we made several years ago to make sure that we were on the right platforms with the right kinds of products and services going forward. So this is pretty smart money. It's painful in the short term, but it's smart money and positions us extremely well for the future.
Andrew Obin:
And just a follow-up question on connection between global airline passenger traffic and your commercial aviation aftermarket. You were up one. My understanding is that global passenger traffic was up mid-single digits. Is there a reason for the disconnect? Is there destocking deferred maintenance or anything else driving the difference? Thank you.
Dave Cote:
Well, this is one that's always kind of interesting when you look at aftermarket versus flight hours, because while flight hours develop pretty consistently over time and they tend to go up 3% or 4% a year; even in a bad time, they'll go down for a single year and then pop back up again. So that trend is always relatively smooth. The aftermarket stream associated with it, though, bounces around in sometimes crazy directions. If you recall the recession, for example, where flight hours were down 3% or 4%, aftermarket was down something like 20% or 30% in that same year. So the long term trend is generally consistent with what those flight hours are. In the short term it can bounce around quite a bit, so being able to explain the difference between say 3% and 1% is easily within the realm of typical variability.
Tom Szlosek:
The other thing I'd add to that Andrew, is that you've got a combination of both air transport and business jets in that 1%. We talked a little bit about the slowdown on the business jet RNO activity. I was going through the slides and that has contributed to this.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Steven Winoker from Bernstein.
Steven Winoker:
I just want to first follow up the earlier comments on UOP and fourth quarter confidence. The question specifically, if you look at the incremental, you've got this 20% growth and whatnot orders on the catalyst side, where are the incremental catalyst volumes going to? If you think about refining versus pet cam for that part of the growth, is there any impact at all from first wave Gulf Coast crackers that have been delayed?
Dave Cote:
Wow, that's a level of specificity, Steve, I'd have to say we'll have to get back to you on that one.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. Just so you know in advance, this is an investor discussion based on just concerns about that visibility even in those end markets for other companies, so that's where that comes from. That would be helpful. The second one, Dave, you'll love this, I think. Just hope you're sitting on this one. It's like a bad relationship where one bad thing happens and all of a sudden everything else comets comes out, right. So in a lot of investor discussions I've been certainly defending Honeywell's growth in aerospace and margins versus the margins in aerospace over time. The assertion is that Honeywell somehow has been trading off growth for margin expansion when you look at specific platform wins. And as you say in slide 13, large wins on the right platforms to accelerate growth. I'd like to give you an opportunity to maybe address that directly to a lot of investors out there who are concerned about this from a higher level perspective.
Dave Cote:
Yes, it's one I always kind of wonder so what date are they looking at when it comes to -- I assume this is the market share question, Steve?
Steven Winoker:
Mostly, yes.
Dave Cote:
Yes, because if you look at the dater, it actually looks very good for us. And to your point, we're selective on the platforms that we pick. I've always been shocked at the investor reception when one of our competitors says that they've won 32 of the last 25 competitions and when you say, geez, now they're winning over 100% of all the competitions out there, how is that possible? And I think they're getting a little carried away with what do they count and what do they not count. If you take a look at our avionics performance, it's quite good and there's future stuff that we'll end up talking about at some point. If you take a look at the concessions that we're paying right now, for example, that you would look at that and say, oh, that yielded a bunch of good platforms also. When you look at the amount of R&D that we spend in aerospace it's kind of -- I don't know what the heck they're pointing to when they say it. It's one thing to be able to say some of this stuff. It's a little different when you actually have to back it up. I just have a tough time seeing it. I don't know where they're getting it from.
Steven Winoker:
And then finally on the capital deployment front, you have repeated the kind of window or envelope that you have to work with over a few years of something in the order of $25 billion. There's always a big difference between what you could spend and what you will spend and when and how obviously. So as you look at the market now and you look at the discussions you're having with huge pipeline that Ann and company and everybody has developed, what's your level of optimism again and the kind of types of M&A activity that investors should be prepared for?
Dave Cote:
Well, it's always tough to predict, as we've said before and we're going to continue to do both the divestitures and acquisitions in a way that causes us to improve the overall growth profile of the company. The problem of course is you can't predict them. You can't say it's $2 billion a year, $5 billion a year. It's going to be 0 one year, 6 another. You just don't know. So we have to take our opportunities as they arise and we'll continue to do that. We do have a good balance sheet, like having that. We think that gives us the opportunity to be smart when it comes time to doing a deal or when it comes time to having the capability to repurchase and we'll continue to be opportunistic on both.
Steven Winoker:
And I guess maybe just one last follow up there. In terms of software solutions stuff versus consolidating products, is everything on the table or directing more one way?
Dave Cote:
Are you saying from an acquisition perspective, Steve?
Steven Winoker:
Yes.
Dave Cote:
Yes, well the nice thing about having so many opportunities and so many places for us to go, all the stuff you talked about is interesting, whether it's technology, software, stuff that does a better job of connecting the digital physical world. So there are lot of places for us to run here. It's really a question of what's available and is the price right. We're still always going to be very conscience that price makes a difference. If you pay for a strategy because the strategy is right, what ends up happening is the seller is the one who made all the money on the strategy, not you. We're going to continue to be thoughtful about how do we do that.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Howard Rubel with Jefferies.
Howard Rubel:
I'm not going to ask an aerospace question, I think I know that market pretty well. Instead I'd like to--
Dave Cote:
Wow, I was prepared, Howard. I was prepared for that and for someday for them to actually pronounce your last name correctly.
Howard Rubel:
Well, you're taking the words out of my mouth, but I'm going to try on restructuring for a moment and because you talk about it as being a permanent change to the way in which you're going to be able to compete and run the business. Can you give us some of the nuts and bolts behind this? Because it's a very large number and probably is very meaningful to several of the businesses.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, well, you can start Howard, with aerospace. You know that over the course of the year because of the volumes as well as driving HOS, we've deployed a fair amount of restructuring to that business and a lot of that is pretty quick turnaround kinds of paybacks. When we did the desegregation of ACS we also went through a significant management spans and layers exercise, so what we try to do is limit and reduce the number of layers that we have from the top boss down to the lowest level person in the organization. We've also tried to increase the span of control for each of our managers. That also took up a bunch of the capacity that we spent in the third quarter. And I'd say thirdly, in our supply chain we continue to have lots of opportunities, whether it's continued integration of acquisitions that we've done or just addressing legacy sites. We've found opportunities and still have more ahead of us to invest in restructuring and attractive payback projects. So it's a combination of the reorganization that we've done as well as continual addressing of our ISC, our supply chain. And then the third thing I'd say is the acquisitions that we've done to achieve the cost synergies that we talk about, you do have to apply restructuring. Again, those do deliver anywhere between 6% and 8% percent of cost synergies on the acquisition. A bunch of that comes from just leveraging our sourcing agreements. But some of it is from restructuring as well. And so those are the three principal areas and as a result you're seeing that 2017 tailwind from the pool of funded projects that we have, as I said.
Howard Rubel:
And then the follow-up questions on software, as you are able to transition away from selling a product but instead selling upgrades and I'll call it enhancements or increased applications, can you, Dave, provide us with some -- I mean to some degree that provides some substantial margin headwind or opportunity rather or tailwind rather, margin and tailwind going forward. Could you provide some context of how you've been able to see that and what I'd call give us some hard examples? Because it could be quite compelling.
Dave Cote:
I'm sorry, Howard, I'm not sure I followed that one. Hard examples of what exactly?
Howard Rubel:
For example, in avionics instead of having to sell a box you sell a software upgrade. So the software costs you a minimal amount of money and yet it enhances the value of the aircraft.
Dave Cote:
I understand and yes you're correct and of course we expense all our R&D as we go along. We don't put any of that on the balance sheet either. So we take the hits for the R&D which can be substantial if you're trying to develop software, but once you do and you start selling the software packages and the upgrades, so whether it's weather radar or a runway incursion or excursion, possibilities, the JetWave. As you start to get into that it is substantial. The margin rates are significantly better.
Howard Rubel:
That applies not just to aero though, it applies I would think to elements of home and building or process control and I was just hoping maybe you can provide us with a sense of where you are today and where you might be in three to five years in terms of just the intensity of the business change?
Dave Cote:
I wouldn't put any numbers on it at this point, but your concept is absolutely correct. That is definitely the -- let's say the direction of the Company and it's why we focused as much as we do on software and I think puts us in position for a very good future for the entire Company. We've got a bigger advantage here than anybody else with almost half of our engineers focused on software today. It puts us in a much better position.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Just want to get my head around restructuring for 2017, not benefits of what you've already accomplished, but new actions. I think on the slide if I interpret it correctly, you're saying the tax rate benefit from the share accounting change will be restructured away. I'm wondering if we should expect the same for any pension benefits that flow through on service costs and are those the two main toggles that would actually define what your restructuring would be next year or is there some other expected danger, other things? Anything you can frame there would be helpful.
Dave Cote:
Yes, the way I would think about it, Jeff, is you probably noticed that over a long period of time we do a lot of restructuring. If we've got some kind of unusual gain, we usually use it to restructure. We take a lot through operations generally every quarter. It's one of those things where we want to constantly be investing. We're not going to run out of ideas. I wouldn't want to go into too much detail until we've had a chance to go through all our AOP planning, but I would be surprised if next year we didn't also have additional restructuring ideas as we went along and that we'll find a way to fund them.
Jeffrey Sprague:
It's meaningfully not lower number than it was in 2016?
Dave Cote:
Well, in 2016 of course we had a big boost as we figured out how to do the additional restructuring in the third quarter. I wouldn't anticipate that we'd do something that big again next year, but you never know. I don't want to -- as you know, I never say never on any of this stuff, but the whole ideas of how do you just constantly have a good pipeline of ideas and find a way to fund the really good ones so that you do the seed planting for the future, that's something we're going to continue doing.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And just back to the OEM incentives maybe one more time, obviously the accounting is very conservative. Just wonder if you could give us a little thought though on the return metrics as you think about making the investments. Obviously the ultimate success or failure of the investment is going to depend on the commercial success of the airplane and units sold and all that, but what kind of return thresholds do you use when you think about these investments? And what kind of cushion versus weighted average cost of capital or whatever metric you use to kind of decide if you pull the trigger on this sort of stuff?
Dave Cote:
Yes, I guess there's a couple of things that we end up looking at. I won't put a specific number on the return because that's -- I just don't think that's a good thing to have public out there. But this has to be a high return project, the same sort of thing that we look at for any internal investment because that's what it is. And that's why we pay so much attention to what platform is it and what do we really think is going to happen. So we don't just take an external look or the customers look at what do they think it's going to be, but we really go through this ourselves to say what do we really think is possible here and how do we make sure that this is going to generate a good return for the Company. Our guys do a pretty good job of this so that we pick the right platforms. And when you see the concessions that we're paying, it's been so that we could do that. So these are going to be high return very good IRR projects and platforms that we're on. We're pretty confident of that based on what we've done and what we see.
Tom Szlosek:
Jeff, the way I think of it is we have a very disciplined process when it comes to considering whether we compete for a new platform that's a potential opportunity for us. It's as disciplined as an M&A process, so we consider all of the investments. These incentives are one aspect of that. I mean there's a lot of engineering time and project management time that also goes into the outflows or the investments that you're making. And then of course you consider all the future revenues and the models and so forth. It's as disciplined as M&A. And as Dave said, we have internal returns that we look to as the hurdles. We'll go ahead with the ones that do meet those attractive rates.
Dave Cote:
And for what it's worth, Jeff, we're very conscious of the time value of money.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
So my first question is on slide 7, when you take a look at your margin bridge for next year and you see all the headwinds that are basically going away, it's about 150 basis points. You're doing a bunch of restructuring this year, you think growth is going to get better next year and yet where the planning for next year is 45 to 75 basis points it seems really conservative. What am I missing here?
Dave Cote:
I would say we've done our -- we think we've provided a lot of color commentary on 2017 at this point, more than we normally ever would. And I would just say stay tuned for the December outlook call. We'll go through a lot more detail then with Darius and Tom to be able to explain what will we see and why. And we're going to be very conscious of having gotten burned on the macro environment this year and as conservative as I thought we were being in the beginning we weren't conservative enough. So we're going to want to make sure that as we pull together a plan for 2017 that it's one that never ends up with the kind of snail surprise that we ended up taking this year.
Joe Ritchie:
That's fair, Dave and definitely good to be conservative into next year. Maybe my one follow up is really just on the M&A that you've done. Tom, I think you'd mentioned on the prior call that the growth was running at about high single digits and I think the accretion was kind of coming in towards the higher end of your range. I'm just wondering how much of the deal-related costs, the inventory step up, how much of those costs go away next year? And then where -- are we still running at the same kind of growth and EPS rates for this year?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, well, first if you look at the -- I mean the deals that we've integrated this year, most of them were closed in the fourth quarter or the first quarter. And yes, you had a lot of startup costs in particularly the first three quarters of this year. Intelligrated which we closed in late August, will add to those one-time startups. But net/net when you consider amortization and inventory accounting and the other things, the year-over-year impact will be favorable on those deals. But the more important thing is that the operations and the cost synergies that we get typically start to ramp in the second half of the first year into the second year. And that's where you start to see the margin rate improvement. So we'll go through the in details in December, but this should be a nice contributor to what we had for 2017.
Operator:
And we'll take our last question from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.
Christopher Glynn:
I'll get my two up front. Dave, had a question on your sales employee census data up 10%, didn't look like it grew much in 2015 despite higher M&A. The increase looks like a big organic component. Just wondering where the raw head count is and where it's especially ROI sensitive. And then my second question would be probably a follow on to Joe's, if you'd quantify what the purchase accounting burden is in 2016 in terms of EPS?
Dave Cote:
Yes, on the first one on salespeople, a lot of those have been deployed to what we refer to as high growth regions. And the reason for highlighting it, of course, is that when you hire salespeople there's training and familiarization that has to go on. So they're not immediately productive. It's the sort of thing that shows up in the future. I won't -- difficult to quantify at this point what that's worth to us say next year and the year after. But it's another investment that -- where we take the expense up front, because of course you've got to pay them while the sales numbers they deliver aren't quite enough to pay for themselves in those first years. So this is a good thing for us to be doing, a good way for us to expand our high growth region presence, but it's the sort of thing that's another investment for the future for us. On the restructuring side, I don't -- I know we've shared some data, not restructuring, the --
Christopher Glynn:
Purchase accounting.
Dave Cote:
Purchase accounting, yes. Tom, I don't know that I want to go too much more than what we've already disclosed here.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, I think we keep it at an overall contribution, for 2016 M&A is -- we guided at $0.05 to $0.15 of overall contribution to EPS. And that is an all in number that takes into account all of those one-time costs as well as the pure operations. In 2017 you can expect that to be a bigger number as a result of a lot of those costs going away. You can kind of calibrate it when we provide that in December.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and answer-session. Mr. Cote, at this time I will turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.
Dave Cote:
Yes, thank you. On October 7 we went out of our way to be transparent. With our focus on transparency, I lost sight of how important it was to also convey our confidence in the future. Hopefully our confidence in that future came across today. We look forward to sharing more with you in our December outlook call. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc. Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Honeywell's Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Tracy. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. With me here today, as always, our Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we'll review our financial results for the second quarter and share with you our guidance for the third quarter and full year 2016 and as always we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, everyone. As I'm sure you've seen by now, Honeywell delivered another quarter of double-digit earnings growth capping off a strong first half of the year in a challenging global economy. Earnings per share of $1.66 increased 10% coming in at the high end of our guidance range. Sales of $10 billion were up 2% on a reported basis and down 2% on a core organic basis, in line with our guidance for the quarter. We saw good growth in Commercial Aviation Aftermarket and Transportation Systems in our residential, commercial and China businesses within ACS and in Process Solutions and Fluorine Products in PMT. Segment margin expanded 10 basis points to 18.5%. On an operational basis, this was 110 basis points of improvement as we continue our focus on commercial excellence, execution on previously-funded restructuring actions and maintaining disciplined cost controls. We are, again, raising the low-end of our 2016 full-year earnings guidance to a new range of $6.60 to $6.70 or up 8% to 10% year-over-year, given our first-half performance. During the second quarter, we had several announcements that I'd like to highlight this morning. We announced that Darius Adamczyk will be our next CEO, effective March 31, 2017, and I will serve as Executive Chairman through April 2018. This announcement is the next step in ensuring a seamless leadership transition which will position Honeywell for continued outperformance in 2017 and beyond. Darius is the right person to lead the company into a new era where we will need to keep evolving, become even more global, to become more of a software company and to become more nimble. He has the growth mindset, global acumen and software expertise to be a highly successful CEO for Honeywell. The Board and I are confident that Darius will be a great leader in executing our strategic plans and driving organic growth. My leadership team and I remain as focused as ever in delivering on our commitments while ensuring a smooth leadership transition. In addition, this morning, we announced that we will realign ACS into two new segments
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks, Dave, and good morning. I'm now on slide three, which shows the second quarter results. Reported sales of $10 billion increased 2%, reflecting the impact of acquisitions and declined 2% on a core organic basis. We saw continued growth in our Commercial Aviation Aftermarket, Security and Fire, Process Solutions and Transportation Systems, which I'll talk more about on the business slides. The continued declines in our oil and gas businesses in UOP and difficult comps in S&PS were largely as we expected. In our high-growth regions, India grew nearly 30%, while in China Aero and ACS continued the momentum from the first quarter, partially offset by moderating declines in PMT. All of our recent acquisitions are performing at or above the deal financial models and the sales from our seven recent acquisitions collectively grew in the high-single-digit basis on a core organic basis this quarter. Segment margin was up 10 basis points versus the prior year, at the high end of our guidance range, or up 50 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of acquisitions. As Dave mentioned, on an operational basis, so that's further excluding the impacts of foreign exchange, the Aerospace OEM incentives and raw material pass-through pricing in Resins and Chemicals, segment margin improved 110 basis points, and we expect the overall margin expansion will continue to improve in the second half. Earnings per share of $1.66 were up 10%, coming in at the high end of our guidance range. Also, we funded $97 million of restructuring projects. That's $53 million net of reversals, largely offsetting the benefit from higher pension income in the quarter, as expected. On share count, we've repurchased another 500 million of shares at attractive prices. On a full year basis, we expect the fully diluted weighted average share count to be approximately 774 million shares. We have been and will continue to deploy capital to appropriate opportunities that will create the greatest value for our share owners. Free cash flow in the quarter, $1.3 billion, improved sequentially and was up 8% as compared to the second quarter of 2015, representing approximately 100% free cash flow conversion. The increase year-over-year was driven primarily by improving net income. Even with the increase in free cash flow, we were able to fund 16% more in capital expenditures or approximately $280 million in the quarter. These are principally the high ROI projects that we've discussed in the past. So as you can see, we continue to generate strong results in a relatively slow-growth environment. Slide four provides a quick recap of our year-to-date growth in the portfolio. Roughly 70% of the Honeywell portfolio is growing at a 5% core organic rate, led by Fluorine Products, Security and Fire, Process Solutions and Transportation Systems, and as well as the five other businesses shown here. We have good visibility to continued outperformance based on our orders and backlog, stable-end markets and new wins. And this outperformance includes overcoming the significant Aero OEM incentives we face in our Commercial Aviation business. So a good sign as we head into the second half of 2016. For the other 30% of the portfolio, core organic sales growth year-to-date has declined 13% due to the known headwinds that we've discussed previously. We've highlighted the market headwinds in our oil and gas businesses in UOP which bottoms out in 2016. Also, the tough comps from the completion of the U.S. Postal Service win in S&PS and the softness in our services and international business within Defense and Space, as well as the market pricing headwinds in Resins and Chemicals. These headwinds are largely expected to subside in the second half of 2016 and into 2017. We think the slide illustrates the diversity of opportunity within the Honeywell portfolio. There's not one business that will make or break us. We continue to be confident about the portfolio and the positions we have as we look to the second half of 2016 and to 2017. Slide five provides more detail on our earnings per share for the quarter. Our operating initiatives led by the deployment of HOS continue to drive segment profit growth. On an operational basis, segment profit accounted for $0.16 of EPS growth in the quarter. We generated 110 basis points of operational improvement in segment margin which compares well with the 100-plus basis point improvement we saw for the full year of 2015. Each of the segments are contributing. We have differentiated technologies with a software focus and the Honeywell user experience is driving the development of new products at higher margins. Our factories and sourcing organizations continued to mature. Our functional transformation is improving the quality of our back office while reducing its cost and we continue to manage our indirect spend stringently. In addition, the previously-funded restructuring as well as new restructuring actions have enabled us to continue improving our overall cost position. The other impacts you see on the slide combined for a $0.01 decline in earnings for the quarter. First, the M&A-related charges stemming from the eight deals in the last 12 months resulted in $0.05 in year-over-year dilution, primarily due to acquisition accounting and pay-as-you-go costs with Elster having the largest impact. The incremental amortization from the deals will be a margin headwind for the rest of the year as we anticipated but the net results from all acquisition should improve in the second half as we lap some of the large one-time costs. Each of our acquisitions are performing well and are at or above our deal models and, as I mentioned, the organic growth embedded in these portfolios that we acquired, which is not included in our overall organic growth numbers has been outstanding. Second, foreign currency represented a $0.04 headwind in the quarter and should be roughly $0.15 for the full year. You'll recall that our hedging approach resulted in a euro rate of $1.24 for 2015 versus $1.10 for 2016. Third, Aerospace OEM incentives reflect our continued investment in developing and growing our install base on the right platforms in the commercial aviation industry. We now anticipate the full year 2016 year-over-year impact from OEM incentives to be more than $200 million and the Q2 impact was approximately $0.03. Lastly, below the line items and share count were a net positive year-over-year by $0.07 and $0.04 respectively, as we previewed. On share count, our repurchases through the end of the second quarter were at an average price of $106 per share. So, overall strong earnings results while overcoming significant headwinds in what continues to be an uncertain macro environment. Let's move to slide six. As Dave said, we announced the acquisition of Intelligrated earlier this month, building on the $6 billion plus of acquisitions we've completed since the beginning of 2015. Intelligrated designs, manufactures, integrates and installs complete warehouse automation solutions, software and services that result in smarter distribution and fulfillment operations. Its supply chain and warehouse solutions drive improved productivity and lower costs for retailers, manufacturers and logistic providers around the world. The company's offerings include conveyor, sortation, palletizers and robotics as well as automated storage and retrieval systems, all managed by advanced machine controls and software. Intelligrated software offers warehouse execution systems, a scalable suite of software that manage the entire fulfillment process including equipment, labor and business intelligence, integrated with voice and light-directed picking and putting technologies. Intelligrated's mission-critical warehouse execution systems and software are a fantastic complement to the scanning, mobile computer and voice automation technologies in S&PS. They have a large and growing install base which includes 30 of the top 50 U.S. retailers and 50 of the top 100 Internet retailers. They also maintain a strong leadership position in the approximately $20 billion warehouse automation segment. About 90% of the business today is in the U.S. so there are significant opportunities to expand globally through Honeywell's footprint and customer diversification. Intelligrated is at the intersection of several key global megatrends namely e-commerce, software and automation with distinguished sales growth in a market that is forecast to grow 8% to 10% a year. S&PS was built initially through acquisitions which we've continually expanded through strong organic growth and operational improvements; a good testament to our rigorous and proven M&A approach and the benefits of being patient with our capital deployment. We expect this transaction to close by the end of the third quarter and we're excited about the opportunity this acquisition has to offer. Let's turn to page seven. We wanted to spend a moment addressing Honeywell's proactive positioning ahead of Britain's recently announced exit from the European Union. You're all familiar with the developments and uncertainties and we've received a lot of questions about the impact on Honeywell. The process of actually exiting the EU will take some time and thus may cause greater uncertainty in the short term in addition to potentially slower UK and EU economic growth longer-term. We'll continue to monitor our European short-cycle businesses for any signs of change but as a reference point, our core organic sales in the EU region have held up nicely year-to-date. We will continue to be cautious in our sales planning and stay conservative in terms of our cost structure and investments in the region. In addition to the ongoing productivity initiatives in our supply chain functions, we're also prepared to leverage the flexibility we have to quickly adjust cost levels as the need arises. As it relates to currency, we've continued our foreign currency hedging approach. We've hedged approximately 75% of our 2017 euro P&L exposure at $1.15 and roughly 50% of our 2017 British P&L exposure at $1.44. So while there may continue to be volatility on the sales line our euro and pound-based earnings are protected, similar to the approach we took for 2016. We will continue to actively monitor the situation as we head into 2017. Let's move to slide eight and discuss the aerospace results. Sales declined 1% or 2% on a core organic basis, below our expectations, primarily driven by weaker than expected sales in Defense and Space which I'll explain further in a moment. The Commercial Aviation OE sales decreased by 8% on a core organic basis as higher volumes with OEMs and Air Transport and Regional were more than offset by a 7-point headwind from higher OEM incentives and lower engine shipments in Business and General Aviation. The BGA OE business in particular faced a difficult prior-year comparison which, as a reminder, grew north of 20% in the second quarter of 2015. And as we highlighted last month, the demand environment in business jets overall is slower. Commercial Aviation Aftermarket sales continued to be robust, growing 6% on a core organic basis. On the spare side, we saw an increase in airline and BGA spares driven by strong mechanical demand and higher GX Aviation sales including SATCOM and software upgrades. Repair and overhaul activities increased in line with flight hours which remained strong in the second quarter as well. Defense and Space sales declined 10% on a core organic basis, driven primarily by difficult prior-year comparisons in the international business, as larger projects were completed as well as lower sales to key channel partners. Our U.S. services and space businesses declined year-over-year due to unexpected program delays and completions of other programs, but we continued to perform well in our U.S. aftermarket business with increased spares and retrofit sales. In addition, our commercial helicopter business continued to be impacted by declines in the oil and gas markets. Reported sales reflect the impact of COM DEV, the satellite communications acquisition which has performed well this year. Transportation system sales increased 3% on a core organic basis due to new platform launches and continued volume growth in both gas and diesel light vehicle applications. We continue to grow in our light vehicle diesel business in Europe which was up single digit in the quarter. The growth in light vehicle gas was also most prominent in Europe and China. Aerospace segment margin expanded 60 basis points or 80 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of acquisitions. This was driven by productivity net of inflation and commercial excellence partially offset by continued investments for growth, including higher OEM incentives and the unfavorable impact of foreign currency. Let's turn to the ACS results on slide nine. ACS sales increased 9% reflecting the favorable impact from acquisitions, primarily Elster. On a core organic basis, sales were down minus 1% in the second quarter, in line with our guidance. The segment margin expansion improved to 50 basis points in the quarter, excluding the impact of M&A, a big improvement from the 10 basis points expansion in the first quarter. And we expect ongoing acceleration in the second half of the year. Sales in energy, safety and security, so the products businesses were down 2% on a core organic basis in the second quarter. The momentum continued in Security and Fire globally with strong growth rates in both residential and commercial markets, coupled with the benefit from new product introductions and further penetration in high-growth regions. Our China business, overall, in ESS grew high single-digit in the quarter and we saw double-digit growth in India. We've continued to outperform in our high-growth regions, driven by our Connected ACS China strategy and the benefit from our ongoing investments for growth. These improvements were offset by lower volume in S&PS, primarily from the 2015 completion of the U.S. Postal Service contract. We expect S&PS to return to growth in the fourth quarter. Building Solutions and Distribution sales were up 3% on a core organic basis in the quarter. We experienced continued strength on the Distribution side, with strong growth in North America and EMEA across our video, access and intrusion product line. In Building Solutions, we saw modest growth, reflecting strength in services, partially offset by softness in the project installation business. Orders growth in the services and energy retrofit businesses was more than offset by a decline in the project businesses. But we remain encouraged by the solid improvements we've seen in our energy portfolio in HBS. Orders have doubled in that portfolio through the first half 2016. This has been driven by sales excellence and a differentiated offering that is leading to multiple awards. The Building Solutions Backlog and Service Bank increased low single-digit in the quarter on an organic basis. Segment margins, ACS continues to benefit from productivity initiatives, the favorable impact from restructuring and commercial excellence while maintaining investments for growth in our connected product offerings and in high-growth regions. Mix was slightly better than the last quarter and we expect this to continue in the second half. I'm now on page 10. This morning, we highlighted that ACS would be split into two newly created business groups. I want to share a little bit more information on that with you. The first, Home and Building Technologies will be roughly a $9 billion enterprise which comprises our legacy Environmental and Energy Solutions, including Elster, Security and Fire, and Building Solutions and Distribution businesses. E&ES' industrial combustion and thermal business will be reclassified to PMT. The HBT business will be led by Terrence Hahn, who previously ran our Transportation Systems unit for the past three years and has been with Honeywell for over nine years. The second segment, Safety and Productivity Solutions, will be roughly a $5 billion business comprising the former Sensing and Productivity Solutions and Industrial Safety businesses, including the recent acquisition, Intelligrated. The new SPS will be led by John Waldron, who is currently President of our Sensing and Productivity Solutions business unit and previously was President of Scanning and Mobility. Today's announcement represents yet another step in the evolution of the Honeywell portfolio. We're constantly looking at ways to improve our organic growth profile and we think a smaller, more focused segment structure will allow us to accelerate breakthrough growth and new product introduction by being closer to our customers. Also, fewer layers and structures will lead to faster decision-making and a more efficient organization. This announcement builds on the momentum in ACS and across the entire portfolio following the acquisitions of Elster, Xtralis, Intelligrated and five other acquisitions since July of last year. The change further positions these businesses to invest in growth and execute the strategic plans best suited to each portfolio. And we have the right leaders in place to drive these actions. We expect to begin reporting under the new segment structure, effective with our third quarter 2016 results and expect to provide comparative financial information at that time. So more to come on this in the coming months. Let's move to slide 11 to discuss the PMT results. PMT sales declined 4% on a core organic basis, in line with our guidance, in what continues to be a challenging market environment for oil and gas. Our orders and backlog have remained resilient, and the leadership team has been unrelenting in its focus to overcome these headwinds. So starting with UOP, sales were down as expected, driven by lower gas processing, licensing and equipment sales. The rate of sales decline improved significantly from the first quarter. In gas processing, we secured five new domestic wins in the first half. However, that market remains a bit sluggish. On the catalyst side, overall demand remained strong and we expect an acceleration of growth in the second half of the year. UOP orders were modestly higher in the quarter, including a strong double-digit increase in the catalyst business, and the UOP backlog was close to 10% higher than the second quarter of 2015. Process Solution continues to outperform its peers in a challenging environment. We have a unique combination of automation, technology field instrumentation products and aftermarket offerings, including software solutions. Core organic sales increased 8% in the quarter, driven by double-digit growth in our projects business and higher software and service sales. Conversion of the Global Mega Project backlog where we serve as the main contractor providing control and safety solutions for large installations remained strong in the second quarter and we expect this trend to continue throughout the rest of the year. Through the recent mega project wins, HBS continues to build out its massive install base which will benefit our services and aftermarket business in future periods. Reported sales were higher in the quarter due to the impact from the Elster acquisition. Advanced material sales were down 2% on a core organic basis driven by a challenging pricing condition in Resins and Chemicals, partially offset by continued strong demand in more than 20% growth for Solstice low global warming products. We presently have roughly $3.5 billion of signed agreements for Solstice and are building out production capacity to meet the increased global customer demand. As expected, PMT segment margins were down 20 basis points to 21.1%, primarily due to the impact of lower volumes overall and continued growth investments, partially offset by benefits from previous restructuring actions and commercial excellence. So overall, market conditions continue to be tough, but our businesses in PMT are doing well and we expect an even better second half. I'm now on slide 12 with a preview of the third quarter. You'll note that the guidance reflects the ACS structure prior to this morning's announcement. We'll be updating the reporting for the new structure starting the third quarter, as I mentioned. So, for total of Honeywell, we're planning for sales of $10 billion to $10.2 billion, that's up 4% to 6% reported or flat to up 1% on a core organic basis. The sales guidance for the quarter does not reflect the impact of the Intelligrated acquisition as we expect the transaction to close near quarter end. Segment margins are expected to be down 10 basis points to up 10 basis points excluding M&A or down 40 to 60 basis points on a reported basis. Finally, EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.67 to $1.72, up 6% to 10% normalized for income tax at 26.5% in both years. Starting with Aerospace, sales are expected to be down 1% to up 1% on a core organic basis. In Commercial Aviation OE, we're expecting sales to be down double-digit driven by the impact of OEM incentives and continued declines in Business and General Aviation, partially offset by a ramp-up on key platforms in Air Transport and Regional. Excluding the OEM incentives, Commercial Aviation OE is expected to be down mid-single digit. Commercial Aviation Aftermarket sales are expected to grow mid-single digit again with strength in both airline and business jet fare sales, including higher SATCOM and other software upgrades. Defense and Space sales are expected to improve sequentially but will be modestly down on a year-over-year basis, as higher product sales to the U.S. government are more than offset by challenging prior-year comparisons in the international business, the impact of large project wind downs and a continued softness in U.S. services. In Transportation Systems, sales are expected to be up low-single digit with continued strong growth in light vehicle gas applications, partially offset by slower growth in diesel based on the timing of new launches. As for Aerospace margin rates, we expect to be down 30 to 50 basis points, excluding M&A, driven by higher OEM incentives beyond favorable impact of foreign currency and the unfavorable impact on margin of higher OE shipments to Air Transport and Regional customers. Now, this will be partially offset by productivity and commercial excellence. Moving to ACS. Sales are expected to be flat to up 1% on a core organic basis or up 11% to 12% on a reported basis, driven by acquisitions. We expect ESS sales growth to be similar to the second quarter on a core organic basis led by continued momentum in our Security and Fire businesses and in our high-growth regions, but more than offset by the declines we highlighted in S&PS. In BSD, we're expecting low- to mid-single digit core organic growth driven primarily by continued strength in Americas Distribution business in both residential and commercial end markets. Excluding the dilutive impact from M&A, ACS margin rate is expected to improve 90 to 110 basis points, driven by commercial excellence, continued productivity and the benefits of restructuring. ACS' reported segment margin rate in the second quarter is expected to be up 10 to 30 basis points. Sorry, third-quarter is expected to be up 10 to 30 basis points. In PMT, sales are expected to be up flat – or expected to be flat to up 2% on a core organic basis or up 2% to 4% reported. UOP sales declines are expected to moderate in the third quarter but still be down double digits on a year-over-year basis, driven primarily by continued declines in licensing equipment and gas processing, partially offset by strength in the catalyst business. Based on our growing UOP backlog, we expect the catalyst sales growth rates to improve in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter. HPS sales are expected to be up mid-single digits on a core organic basis driven by continued conversion of Global Mega Projects, as I mentioned earlier, as well as higher software and service sales. Advanced Material sales are expected to be up low- to mid-single digits on a core organic basis driven by strength in Fluorine products softer sales and improving specialty products volumes benefiting from new product introductions. PMT reported segment margin rate is expected to be down 100 to 120 basis points, and down 70 to 90 basis point, excluding the dilutive impact of M&A, driven by lower volumes, the unfavorable impact of lower UOP licensing sales, market pricing headwinds in Resins and Chemicals and continued investments for growth, partially offset by productivity net of inflation. Slide 13 provides our full year 2000 (sic) [2016] expectations by business compared to the initial guidance we provided back in December. While there are a number of puts and takes within the overall portfolio, we're tracking toward our initial full year core organic sales guidance for Honeywell. In Aerospace, Commercial OE continued see improvement in ATR with the ramp-up of key platforms like A350 and A320 as well as Boeing 737 and 787. However, as we saw this quarter, the demand environment in business jets is slower than we anticipated, and we expect this trend to continue in the second half. Meanwhile, our Commercial Aftermarket business is coming better than anticipated as we build on the 6% core organic growth achieved year-to-date, driven by stronger flight hours and continued spares growth and repair and overhaul activities. Defense and Space will remain challenged throughout the year as the U.S. services and space businesses anticipate further program delays in the second half, and as oil and gas market declines continue to adversely impact the commercial helicopter market. In total, ACS is performing largely as we expected. The products businesses are coming in slightly lower largely due to lower volume and our Sensing and Productivity Solutions businesses due to some channel headwinds while Building Solutions and Distribution is coming in much better, driven by double digit core organic growth performance in the first quarter and continued strength in Americas Distribution as we move into the second half. In PMT, our Process Solutions business continues to outperform, driven by the strong conversion of the Global Mega Project backlog. Our software solutions are generating strong demand, and we anticipate this to continue for the remainder of the year. And UOP activity continues to be soft given the slowdowns in orders in our Gas Processing, Licensing and Equipment businesses, but as I indicated, we expect a very strong second half for UOP's catalyst business. So on balance, no change to our core organic sales outlook in total, but we continue to monitor the businesses closely. Moving to slide 14, as Dave mentioned, we're raising the low-end of our full year EPS guidance by $0.05 with a new range of $6.60 to $6.70. That's up 8% to 10% from 2015. The new range reflects the outperformance in the first half of the year. There's some puts and takes among the segments from the guidance we provided in April, but overall very strong year expected for Honeywell in 2016 once again. In total, we now expect core organic sales growth of approximately 1% and total sales to be between $40 billion and $40.6 billion, so up 4% to 5% reported. The revised guidance reflects the incremental headwinds we've seen in Aerospace, particularly in our BGA and Defense and Space businesses. This guidance does not reflect the Intelligrated acquisition or the planned spinoff of Resins and Chemicals. Segment margin expansion is still expected to be up 10 to 50 basis points, or 80 to 110 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of M&A, driven by commercial excellence, restructuring benefits and continued proactive cost management. We expect the full year income tax rate to be approximately 26.5% and our share count to be approximately 774 million shares, or approximately 2% lower than the 2015 weighted average share count of 789 million shares. Finally, we continue to expect free cash flow in the range of $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion, up 5% to 10% from 2015, with CapEx investments roughly flat to 2015 at approximately $1.1 billion. This will drive free cash flow conversion of approximately 90% for the full year. Let me move to slide 15 for a quick summary before turning it back to Mark for Q&A. We had a solid first half, adding to our strong performance track record and generating momentum for the rest of the year. Once again we've demonstrated that we can deliver at the high end of our aggressive earnings commitments, even with limited help from the macro environment – a big reminder of the value of our diversified and balanced portfolio and the strength of the Honeywell operating system. And we again put to work a sizable amount of shareholder capital in the quarter, including 1.5 billion in additional acquisitions and 0.5 billion in share repurchases, which will pave the way for future earnings and cash growth. The uncertainty in macro environment is not new for us. We have and will continue to plan conservatively. We continue to focus on executing sustainable productivity actions, including delivering on the strong restructuring pipeline, where we have roughly $300 million of actions to be carried out. We're making small bets on innovation and breakthrough initiatives and continuing our investments to further penetrate high-growth regions and expand capacity. We're in the process of planning for 2017, and our management team is focused on execution. We feel confident that our balanced portfolio mix aligned to favorable macro trends and focused cost discipline will continue to outperform.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You going to make it, Tom?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. I'm on my last leg here. Without further ado, let's move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Tracy. Tracy, if you could please now open the line for questioning?
Operator:
Thank you. We'll go first to Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Scott.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Hey, Scott.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I hope you don't mind. We just got the EMTs in here for Tom.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I was going to say maybe a shot of whiskey might help out a little bit. Or if Cote would give you day off once in a while, you might actually be able to stay healthy.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Scott, yes.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You can put the brakes on me.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Anyways. Dave, I love it when management teams use words like strong 2Q with a negative 2% core growth rate, so I'm going to call you out a little bit. The only time we've seen negative core growth at Honeywell, Dave, is when we've actually been in a recession. So like, what's different? What's going on out there that gives you the confidence that we're not walking into an even tougher back half of the year? Because the first half of this year has been pretty tough, and some of your peers reported pretty tough numbers, too, it's just not just you guys. But I mean negative core growth is something we don't normally see in an expansionary time period, right? So I guess I'm asking a general question on what you think about the world.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I don't think we've ever referred to this environment as being expansionary. And the way I would describe the overall performance and why we say strong
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
The other thing I would add to that, Dave, is the Aerospace incentives...
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Oh, yeah, good point.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
...which come off the top line as well.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
And those are significant. The Aerospace incentives are a huge increase year to year and they show up as a reduction of sales and income. And those, they're about flat year-to-year 2016, 2017 and then they decline. So again, it's a headwind that ends and isn't a growth headwind for next year by much.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
In fact, it helps us that we're building install base and it drives the future service business for that business.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So I look at all of that Scott. I feel pretty good about this, especially in what's not an easy environment.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah, no, I get it. If you go back to your guidance two quarters ago, negative 2% would've been off the table but yes, I think you've performed about as good as you can do with that kind of a growth environment. I'm not busting your chops on that. Just lastly, UOP catalyst coming back, returning the back half of the year and my understanding is it's always been a very high margin business. Is your guidance a little bit conservative on the back half PMT based on that?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We'll never say it was conservative, we'll say that we think it's what we're going to achieve.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, I mean as you can...
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
But you've got a tailwind there that's pretty material I would imagine, right?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, you appreciate the lumpiness we've had that comes with being in that business. But we have very good visibility to the second half ramp, Scott. In fact, when you look at the third quarter, more than three quarters of the catalyst sales that we foresee are in backlog and ready to go. And in the fourth quarter, we're near the same position that we've been in the past in terms of the percentage of backlog that we have. So there's little bit more wood to chop for the fourth quarter but we have good line of sight and good visibility and yes there is a step up but the team is confident in being able to execute on it.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. Okay. Good luck, guys. Thank you.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank, Scott.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi, guys. Good morning.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, guy.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Just a question on Aerospace. There's a headline that American Airlines is deferring their 22 A350s and if you looked at the press, at the local press in Arizona, it sort of was writing about big layoffs and furloughs in your Aerospace business back in May. And I understand that a lot of the stuff is temporary, but can you just talk more about the Aerospace cycle, why such big sort of unusual furloughs in the Aerospace business? Are you worried about the direction of the commercial aerospace cycle? Just connect the dots for us. Thank you.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. On the volume side, ATR actually feels fine. The biz jet industry is struggling a little bit and we expect that will continue. That will be offset by all the new platforms we've been on. When you look at the layoffs and furloughs that you're referencing, a lot of that is being driven by just better and better efficiency within our Aerospace business. Tim has been doing a remarkable job of just making all our processes work better. Whether it's how we engineer, how we manufacture, how we run our staff functions, it's really just being driven by doing a better job, overall, which is a good sign. That certainly puts us in a much better position to grow.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And just to follow up on Defense and Space, international orders, international is supposed to be a big area of growth, you talk about deferrals. How much visibility to have into 2017 and 2018 on these delays? Thank you.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, I mean, the backlogs are holding up and as far as Defense and Space goes, the challenges for us were more in I'd say the commercial helicopter market. And a lot of the other defense companies that have commercial helicopter business, separate those out. We've got ours right in the Defense segment. And with the number of used aircraft available, as well as the declines in the drilling activity, you've seen a reduction in spare parts and services and that's impacting our portfolio there. Your guess is as good as ours in terms of where oil prices are going and when the volumes will turn. But we feel pretty confident that we're at or close to a bottom in UOP and we expect that to kind of prevail through the rest of our portfolio as well. So we expect to see this improve. The technology that we have in commercial helos is outstanding, top-notch, and we serve all the big helicopter manufacturers and have very strong aftermarket business as well. So it should turn for us, Andrew.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you. And I'll echo Scott's remarks on good performance in tough markets. Thank you.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you. Appreciate it, Andrew.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Can you just talk about the moving parts with a little more detail on ACS in the second half? Maybe just give us a little bit of color. It looks like obviously pretty back-end loaded type of a trajectory, and I guess there's some acquisition snap-back in there, maybe just give us some color there?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, I mean, when you look at the third quarter for ACS, we're calling flat to up 1% fourth quarter in that same region, down 1% to flat. So it's a little bit more conservative actually than what we've seen quarter-to-date. We had a very strong first quarter, as you remember, Steve, up I think 5% or 6%; a little more modest in the second quarter. So I think we've actually built the second half fairly conservatively in ACS. We'll get some improvement in S&PS, particularly in the fourth quarter to help us get that growth rate.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
And what are the margins in the acquisitions going to do specifically? I know you guys were – they were very low-single digits in the – you know, the big bucket of deals, they were very low-single digits in kind of the first half here. What do you expect out of those in the second half?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, I mean, you saw the dilution in the margin rate overall for ACS. It was on order of 50 basis points to 70 basis points. That will moderate as we get into the third quarter and fourth quarter. So overall, it'll be a margin improvement for us. And by the time we get to the fourth quarter, we'll have very strong 100 basis points improvement in ACS on an organic basis.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then one last question just on the, you know, Dave, you talked about at the Investor Day the 4% to 5% or whatever it was, revenue guidance for next year. How does that stand today? How do you feel about that today after reducing your expectation for the second half?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, the conditions that generate a 4% to 5% increase are still there. We'll see what the numbers actually look like as we get on further through the year, but all the basics are still there. When you take a look at Aerospace, it's still a case where you don't have this big increase in incentives that hurt you on the growth side year-to-year. The biz jet applications, even in tougher market still help you. UOP does bottom out this year. Some of the CapEx expansions that we were talking about in PMT are still there for us next year or are still there for us next year when we look at Fluorines in particular and what we've been able to achieve with some of the acquisitions. When you look at ACS, we still expect that to be a good performer for us again next year, although, of course, split into two pieces. So the conditions are all still there. What the macro environment looks like, as we get into that year, I guess we'll have to assess as it moves on. But all the conditions that we talked about are still present.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You're welcome.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Good morning.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Nigel.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Hey, Nigel.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I hope, Tom, you've recovered from your seizure. So I just wanted...
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
His EMT has got him on the machine. He's doing fine now.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Oh, that's what I can hear in the background. Okay, good. Just obviously the trends in the UOP backlog have been really encouraging. I think you mentioned 10% growth in the backlog year-over-year. You're obviously calling for an inflection in the second half on catalysts. I'm just wondering, how much of that backlog right now speaks to 2017? And does it allow you to make any adjustments about 2017? I hear the comments about UOP troughing this year, but I'm just wondering if the backlog speaks to 2017 in any – in some way?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, go ahead, Tom.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, to me, the visibility is stronger, obviously, Nigel, in the – for the second half of the year. But in terms of our planning for 2017, we certainly are expecting significant improvement overall in UOP, on the equipment side as well as in catalysts. I mean, remember, we were down 35% in the first quarter and something like 17%, 18% this quarter. That's going to start to improve in the second half with that building of the backlog. The team is very confident in terms of both the second half and their ability to generate orders to support 2017. The full visibility of the full year obviously isn't there, but in terms of what the leaders in the business see, and we've just went through the five-year planning exercise, which had a heavy focus on the earlier years. There's optimism in terms of what the market conditions are going to hold for us in 2017.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
And just building on that, just the absence of a decline will be a significant benefit.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
All right. Yeah, I'd absolutely agree with that. And then...
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Has been pretty significant.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I mean, no, that chart showing the divergence between the portfolio I thought was really helpful. A quick one on the ACS re-segmentation. With Alex leaving and the re-segmentation, what does that mean for the Connected ACS initiative? Is it the same initiative, just in two pieces now? And do you think that both of those segments can be 20%-plus margin segments?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm sorry. I didn't quite get the last part of that, Nigel.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
You talk about ACS being a 20%-type margin.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Oh, yeah.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Do you think that both of those can be 20%?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, starting with the last one first, we'll have to see how that plays out on the Homes and Building side because now all of the Distribution and Building Solutions business are in there, and they tend to be lower margin. So I haven't gotten far enough on that one yet to be able to say that's going to be 20%. But the overall, putting the two together, yes, that can still get to 20%. So how that will shake out by business will take some time for us to sort out. On the Connected ACS, yeah, that potential is still there. It will continue to be there. It's just going to be into two pieces, so think of it as Connected Homes and Buildings Technologies and Connected Safety and Productivity Solutions. That's still going to exist, and there is just terrific opportunity for us morph these two more focused enterprises. I think of it as one is more commercial and industrial and the other is homes and buildings. It just allows us to be a lot closer to our markets than we have in the past with that same Connected ACS approach, which I think is going to really speak well for us and allow us to do a lot better in those markets than we even have in the past.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. That's great. Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks, and good morning, all.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Steve.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hey, Dave. That Intelligrated acquisition is great, but thinking about the $25 billion or so you talked about in M&A, should we expect more like that now? And how are you looking at the pipeline? What are your thoughts on M&A playing out from here?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, the story doesn't really change from anything we've said in the past, Steve, that, yeah, we've got a lot of money to deploy and that gives us a lot of flexibility. And you've seen us do it in different ways, M&A, repurchases when we thought it made sense. And the M&A pipeline still looks really good. We have at least 100 companies we're looking at in any one point in time, from small ones to big ones. Tough to predict when they're going to become available or when we can do something, and it's not like it comes in a steady dose. Sometimes you get three or four right away. Sometimes you go a year and a half or two years with not much of anything. I can just promise you, it's top of mind for all of us, and we've got a pretty strong, good effort working on it to constantly look for stuff that will make sense and generate good returns for our share owners. We're still – money is not burning a hole in our pocket. It never will. It's important for us to be smart about how we deploy that money. In the meantime, we're going to focus on making sure we generate a lot of it, and this quarter was a nice indication of that.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay, great. And how do you see the construction cycle playing out in risk to that in HMB or I guess I'll call it HBT now?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, construction cycle still looks fine and whether it's commercial or residential it still looks okay. It's not like it's a boom but by the same token it still seems to be coming back pretty steady. Tom, I don't know if...
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, I guess I would say that in ACS that was the strongest vertical for us in the quarter and it has been for the last couple of years, mid-single-digit growth at least in the businesses that serve the commercial segments.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
And that's baked into your 2017 assumption that that continues, right, that 4% to 5% you've talked about?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, for the most part.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Pretty much. Yeah, we pretty much assume that continues just the way it is, so slow steady growth, not a boom but not a decline either.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. And if I could just – one more, Dave, with the announcement for Darius and you're not exactly hands-off, what do you plan to focus on as Executive Chairman versus CEO once we get past that March? I mean, how should we think about the role that is effectively a new role and still a transition, I'm sure, over that following year for you?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I've built a special closet to keep Darius in from time to time. This is by the way – I think if you take a look at our history, when it comes to transitions and how we do things, I think we tend to do things pretty well and think them through. And, yes, I'm very hands-on, Darius is very hands-on. He wouldn't have got the job unless he was. He's an independent thinker. He's going to be important for the evolution of the company. And, yeah, it's going to be important for me to recognize the difference between my job and Darius'. We get along really well or at least at this point Darius says we get along really well, so it feels that way. But at the end of the day, I don't foresee a real issue doing this. We can manage it and we want a great transition because I still own a lot of shares, Darius owns a lot of shares, we want this thing to work well. So, I don't foresee it being a real issue.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Yeah, no, I didn't think there was an issue, it's more just about what do you see doing in the role than anything.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
It'll be more advisory than anything else, because there has to be one guy running the place, otherwise it's just chaos. And until March 31, I run it; starting in April, Darius runs it. And that's going to be...
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Got it.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
...we've made that very clear to everybody around here.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Perfect. Thanks a lot, guys.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You're welcome.
Operator:
And we'll go next to John Inch with Deutsche Bank.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, John.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Morning. So, hey, Tom, in the third-quarter, fourth-quarter as part of your third-quarter walk, I know in the first quarter you had some extra selling days and I realize you're not like a daily sales type of company, but if those come out of the fourth quarter, does that have any sort of discernible bearing I guess on growth in the quarter or anything else?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I would say it's reflected in the full-year guidance that we've given. We've fully contemplated those factors, John.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So there's nothing discernible. I didn't think there would be but I just wanted to double check. David, I want to pick up on Steve Winoker's question. You had an incredible run and I guess many of us sort of thought that you would be sticking around a little bit longer. And so now you're sort of doing a big ACS restructuring which I understand the logic, it all seems pretty positive. What are sort of the implications of perhaps you leaving or stepping aside a little bit sooner? Is it that there's lot of say growth initiatives the company has been looking to do and that you've sort of decided that maybe Darius should be assuming this on his own or perhaps there's M&A implications? I'm just curious, it's almost a personal question if there's something you could share with us.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, you mean like am I running out of gas, so I need a younger guy to be able to keep the energy level of the company up?
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I didn't mean it that way. We're all running out of gas but I didn't mean it that way. It's more the implication of strategic initiatives for the corporation and next steps and all that sort of stuff.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No, you shouldn't be reading any big implications into any of this. This is just a case where I am 64. At some point investors start to look at and say, hey, we like you Dave but like what's next here and how do we make sure this continues. We've got a really good guy in Darius and he's ready now. There's no reason to wait. And better off, like Belichick, I guess, would say is better to leave a year, two early than a year, two late, and I think it's important to get the timing right. We agree on the initiatives that we want for the company. We both agree on the need to outperform, and how do we do that. I think if you were to talk to Darius, he'd talk about the need for HOS Gold and the breakthrough initiatives, the need to develop our software capability even further. What we're doing in high-growth regions ends up continuing to be important. All that being said, all this stuff is going to evolve. It's never a case – I've never felt that way where a strategy was permanently correct. Rather you needed to keep adjusting. You needed to keep evolving, whether you are a person, a company, a country, you've got to keep evolving, and we've done a lot of evolving over 15 years. And I think you can expect Darius to keep it evolving for the next 15.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Appreciate the comments, Dave. Thanks very much.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Happy to help.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Howard Rubel with Jefferies.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you very much. I have two questions. Dave, you've done a nice job over time in ACS with doing a lot of product line extensions, or what I'll call business extensions. How do you think about – I mean I know with this separation of the two companies – how do you think about where you go from here with the opportunities?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Oh, I think both are going to be extremely good, and you take a look at what's possible in the homes and buildings sector, especially with our installed base, and the increasing need for software-capable products and services. It's quite entrancing with what can happen there, and having a more intense focus on it, I think is going to be very good for us. On the commercial and industrial side with John Waldron, we're going to see the exact same thing, and the push that we've made with Intelligrated is going to help greatly there. The warehouse space we feel is going to be tremendous for a long time to come, especially with the development of the e-economy. And that's going to play very well for us, especially as you look at what we do with barcode scanning and how that fits. I'm really quite entranced with what can happen there.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
All right. You bring a little bit of – I guess you've said it before. It's sort of the power of a big company, but the challenge of being an entrepreneurial one at the same time.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Right. And that's exactly the point of HOS Gold and what we're trying to do, and you combine that with the breakthrough goals that Darius has been a big supporter of and I think has improved significantly just in the three months that he's been doing this – puts us in a really good position. There is a lot of good growth to come out of the two businesses.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
To turn to Aerospace and growth for a moment, you have a fairly substantial connectivity initiative, and also there's a fairly significant change in the avionics market with the demand for ADS-B. Could you first for a moment talk about the progress you've made with the connectivity initiative? And then again, it looks like the pent-up demand for ADS-B remains, and at some point how are you going to convert that into satisfying it?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, on the connectivity side, things are going very well there, and this really is a far superior product. The thing that's been going on right now is, while it exists, every airframer needs to get it certified so that it can be put on the aircraft. Demand is very good. We just need to be able to get the certifications done with the airframers so that we can get it out there. I'm pretty well-convinced that when consumers actually start to feel the difference between existing services and what we're able to provide with a JetWave, we're going to be quite impressed, and it's going to get to a point where consumers ask for it. And it's going to be a differentiating item for airlines, for their consumers. Interestingly, some of the surveys that have been done show that on a three-hour flight or less, passengers prefer a strong Wi-Fi to access to a bathroom, quite significant when you look at it that way. And we're really hot on what this connectivity initiative is going to be able to do for us. And on ADS-B, it's typical with any mandate is that it seems to all be backend-loaded as customers wait. And we'll be prepared for it.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you very much.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You're welcome.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Joe.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Hey, Joe.
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Yeah, and I think I'll shoot with the – and go for the bathroom instead of the Wi-Fi. But...
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Suit yourself.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Yeah, maybe...
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Just don't sit next to somebody who chose Wi-Fi.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Exactly. Maybe just a broader question, Dave. We've been spoiled for so long the quarters, you guys have just continued to beat on the segment EBIT line. And recently, really the last couple of quarters you've just been digesting a lot, whether it's UTX, the leadership transition, M&A. Yeah, how do you respond to maybe some of the concerns that are out there right now that perhaps like you – management capacity has been strapped; the focus hasn't been as rigid as it had been historically. Maybe some thoughts around that would be helpful.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I think this is one where you've got to look at the record. And just – I mean for simplicity, just compare last year to this year. Sales growth was tough last year, also. It was a difficult environment last year. And we kept breaking out the margin rate improvement chart to show, here's the operational stuff and here's all the other stuff that just goes on top of it, and focus on the operational piece because the rest of the stuff can disappear. Well, this year it's just gone the other way. The operational improvement is still pretty darn good and consistent with last year. And if you look over on the right-hand side, in this continued slow-growth environment, just like last year, it's just going the other way is all. But at the end of the day, the operational performance continues to be very good in a slow-growth environment. That parts not changing, and we're the same company that we were before. And what we're trying to do is just highlight these kind of swing items and say, don't focus on these. We're not asking for credit when it goes our way, and you shouldn't be dinging us when it goes the other way because the fundamentals of the company are still there, are still good and portends for a very good future for Honeywell share owners.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, Joe, I would add to that and I would say that in addition to the operational improvement that's in the triple digits, I mean when you look at the items that brought us back to a recorded margin rate that was lower than that 110 basis points, they're either items that are – will turn for us or that are of an investment nature. So for example, if you look at foreign exchange, we're going from an FX rate of $1.24 last year to $1.10 this quarter. I talked about 2017 and some of the hedging we've done, so that will be an actual – at our tails next year. And when I look at the OEM incentives that we're making, I mean this was the year that we've always flagged as having to deal with over $200 million of P&L impact from the increased incentives. Those level off next year and actually help us to build an install base for service opportunities. And in the longer term, those decrease. So it'll be another tailwind for us. And third, you've got a lot of M&A going on. We've done eight acquisitions in the last year. There is a lot of focus on that. But when you're doing acquisitions, especially the size of the ones we've done, you do get some headwinds in the earlier quarters from the purchase accounting step up, the integration team cost and the like. And those will all turn for us as well and really be a nice margin driver for us in the future. We're really happy with the acquisitions. And as I said, we don't include the organic growth that we're experiencing in those acquisitions in the minus 2% organic growth rate that we talk about. But those acquisitions grew 8% to 9% on their own, if you compared how they did under prior ownership to how they did with Honeywell, so pretty strong performance. So we're really actually excited about these various factors because they're going to turn and have a positive influence for next year.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Couldn't agree more
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Sounds good. Thanks, guys.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. Thanks, Joe.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Dave Cote for any additional or closing remarks.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
In a difficult environment, we continue to outperform for our investors. That's not going to change. The fundamentals for us remain as good as you saw in this quarter with our performance and our confidence in again raising our guidance for the year, this time to 8% to 10% growth. Rest assured we're going to continue to deliver. And we hope you all get to enjoy a great summer. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President Darius Adamczyk - President & Chief Operating Officer
Analysts:
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc. Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker)
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's first quarter 2016 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice-President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Cynthia. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's first quarter 2016 earnings conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the first quarter and share with you our guidance for the second quarter and full year of 2016. And finally, as always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, everyone. As I'm you've seen by now, Honeywell delivered another strong quarter to kick off 2016. EPS of $1.53 increased 9%, coming in at the high end of our guidance range. Sales of $9.5 billion were up 1% on a core organic basis, above the high end of our sales guidance. We outperformed and saw growth accelerate in Aerospace, Commercial Aftermarket and Transportation Systems, in our residential and commercial and China businesses within ACS, and in Process Solutions and Fluorine Products in PMT. Excluding the dilutive impact of M&A, segment margin expanded 20 basis points in the quarter to 18.9%. We generated significant sustainable productivity in the quarter. The Honeywell user experience is driving new products at higher margins. Our factories and sourcing organizations continue to mature, and we continue to reengineer our products to make them easier and less expensive to manufacture. HOS Gold and our key process initiatives that generated that productivity allowed us to overcome previously discussed significant headwinds in segment profit. These included over $40 million of additional Aerospace OEM incentives, additional depreciation stemming from our ramp-up in high-ROI CapEx, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and difficult comparisons at UOP and Sensing & Productivity Solutions, which Tom will take you through further. Our segment margin rate was slightly lower than our guidance range primarily due to a combination of higher than expected sales of lower margin products like in BSD and Commercial Aviation OE, and lower sales of higher margin products like in ESS and UOP catalysts. We still expect to be within our segment margin guidance range for the full year as sales growth modestly improves in the second half of the year basically just from the absence of declines in UOP that we encounter in the first half. We will of course continue with our disciplined cost controls focused on commercial excellence and execution of previously funded restructuring actions. Our strong start and the momentum we see in parts of the portfolio allow us to raise the low end of our 2016 full year earnings guidance to a new range of $6.55 to $6.70, or up 7% to 10% year over year. Our planning framework has not changed. We will support growth wherever we have it to drive our performance. We'll be cautious in our sales planning. We will continue to plan our costs and spending conservatively, ensuring we remain flexible as a company, and we'll maintain our seed planting investments for the future, supported by a robust pipeline of funded restructuring projects and continued investment in R&D. In the second quarter, we expect EPS growth of 7% to 10%, in line with the full-year range. There's a number of exciting things that are happening across the company. I'd like to spend a moment on them here. Earlier this month, we appointed Darius Adamczyk to the newly created role of President and Chief Operating Officer reporting to me. In this role, he will drive continued profitable growth of our operating businesses through HOS Gold breakthrough strategies and advanced software offerings that complement Honeywell's diverse technology portfolio. Honeywell remained very active on the capital allocation front in the first quarter. We opportunistically repurchased over $1 billion of Honeywell's shares at a weighted average price of approximately $104. And we deployed another billion dollars to acquisitions. We announced and closed three deals in ACS
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks, Dave, and good morning. I'm on slide 3, which shows the first quarter results. So sales of $9.5 billion increased 1% on a core organic basis. Each of the segments exceeded the sales guidance we provided in January, led by Commercial Aviation, Building Solutions & Distribution, and Process Solutions, which I'll talk more about on the business slides. By region, core organic sales modestly declined in the Americas and increased high single-digit in Europe. In our High Growth Regions, India grew double-digit, while in China Aero and ACS increased double-digit, partially offset by declines in PMT. On a reported basis, total sales increased 3% as acquisitions more than offset the unfavorable impact of the stronger U.S. dollar and lower pass-through pricing in Resins & Chemicals. Segment margin was down 60 basis points versus the prior year but up 20 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of acquisitions. The businesses are driving benefits for HOS Gold, our focus on commercial excellence, new product development and functional transformation while maintaining our investments for growth. I'll talk more about the segment margin in a minute. Earnings per share of $1.53 was up 9% coming in at the high end of our guidance range. Items below segment profit were favorable on a year-over-year basis. Consistent with our long-term framework, we recorded approximately $40 million of new restructuring projects, partially offsetting the benefit from higher pension income. For the full year, we anticipate that additional restructuring charges will largely offset the incremental pension income, positioning us well for margin expansion. Non-controlling interest was also favorable year over year as anticipated given the purchase of the remaining 30% stake in UOP Russell. On share count, as Dave mentioned, we repurchased over $1 billion dollars of shares at attractive prices which brought our weighted average fully diluted share count to approximately 777 million for the quarter. We have been and we'll continue to be opportunistic when it comes to share repurchases and deploy capital to opportunities that will create the greatest value for our shareowners. Free cash flow in the quarter of $63 million was down from the first quarter of 2015, driven primarily by the timing of tax payments and higher capital expenditures, offset by better working capital performance. Capital expenditures of almost $200 million in the quarter increased 18% year over year. The first quarter has historically proven to be our lowest from a cash perspective, and we will remain on track to our full-year cash guidance of $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion. Overall, we continue to generate strong results in a relatively low-growth environment. I'm now on slide four to provide more detail on our segment margin expansion. Our operating initiatives continue to drive segment margin growth, led by the deployment of HOS Gold. We generated an 80 basis point operational improvement in the quarter, which compares well with a 100-plus basis point improvement for the full year 2015. We have differentiated technologies and a software focus. Our supply chains are becoming more lean. Our back office continues to get more efficient, and there's strong collaboration across the organization to drive down our material costs and indirect spend. The previously funded restructuring as well as new restructuring actions have enabled us to continue improving our overall cost position. We were encouraged by the outperformance on the top line in Building Solutions & Distribution and in our Commercial Aviation OE businesses this quarter. But that overdrive as well as the lower UOP petrochemical catalyst sales and lower than expected products growth in ACS Scanning and Productivity Solutions business constrained the operational margin improvement to the 80 basis points that you see. Lower raw materials pass-through pricing in Resins & Chemicals added 10 basis points. The impact from the pricing dynamics in Resins & Chemicals should be minimal for all of 2016. The other three impacts you see on this slide combined for 150 basis points of margin contraction in the quarter. First, M&A accounted for 80 basis points, primarily due to acquisition accounting and pay-as-you-go costs. The incremental amortization from the deals will be a margin headwind for the rest of the year, as anticipated. We're in the midst of integrating eight acquisitions, and are happy to report that each one is performing well and is ahead of our deal financial model. Second, as we previewed in our December outlook call, Aerospace OEM incentives increased by approximately $44 million from 2015, reflecting our continued investment in developing and growing our installed base on the right platforms in the commercial aviation industry. Depending on their nature, the incentives are treated as a reduction to revenue or as a cost, but either way, they reduce segment profit as they are incurred. Third, on foreign exchange, as previewed, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar drove down our margins, principally in Transportation Systems. You'll recall that we were able to hedge our euro earnings at approximately $1.24 in 2015 versus our 2016 euro hedge rate of $1.10. So to put it into perspective, these three items accounted for approximately $63 million of headwind in the quarter, or roughly $0.06 of earnings per share. In that light, the $0.12 of earnings per share growth for the first quarter certainly stands out. I'm now on slide five summarizing our first quarter segment margin performance versus guidance. We were off 30 basis points at the midpoint. This chart provides some color on that. Aero and PMT were generally in line with what we guided. In Aero, we continued to drive strong productivity improvements, but we did see some impact from the higher than planned Commercial OE content. In PMT, we hit the high end of the guidance range. In ACS, we experienced a sales shift. That is lower than anticipated ESS sales, including a double-digit decline in Scanning and Productivity Solutions, but higher than expected sales in Building Solutions & Distribution. The adverse margin impact of these sales shifts offsets the continued improvements we're seeing across the ACS portfolio from productivity initiatives, commercial excellence, and restructuring. As you'll see later, we continue to maintain our full-year margin guidance, which includes an acceleration of restructuring benefits in the second half of the year, this while absorbing the adverse margin impacts of the M&A accounting, the Aerospace OEM incentives, and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Let's turn to slide six with a quick update on some of our recent acquisitions. In 2015, we announced five acquisitions, aggregating over $5.5 billion in purchase price. These were across all of our SBGs [Strategic Business Groups], following our consistent qualitative and quantitative methodologies. We've continued this into 2016, having already announced and closed the three additional deals highlighted on this page. Each of these deals allows us to put non-U.S. cash to work, and each advances the software content in the Honeywell portfolio. Starting with Xtralis and RSI Video Technologies, each of these acquisitions has excellent technologies, including video analytics and software that complement and expand our current security and fire offerings. Xtralis is a pioneer in very early warning smoke detection technology, which enables customers to protect high-value assets such as museums and historical buildings or facilities where continuity is critical, such as IT data centers and warehouses. Xtralis is the clear leader in that space. RSI's advanced motion technology allows our commercial and residential customers to receive intrusion alerts through a live video stream, over the cloud, providing visual verification that an intrusion event has indeed occurred. This verification is legislatively mandated throughout Europe as a means of reducing unnecessary police response to false alarms. And we expect this type of legislation will become more prevalent globally. Movilizer allows us to expand our offerings for the connected worker in sensing and productivity solutions. Movilizer's cloud platform plugs seamlessly into our customers' ERP systems and enables them to develop, deploy, and manage their workflow and field service operations through the Movilizer app. Each of these 2016 acquisitions are being integrated into Honeywell right now, and each is tracking ahead of our financial deal model. Let's move to slide seven and discuss the Aerospace results. Sales were up 3% on a core organic basis and above our expectations, driven by better than expected growth in the commercial aviation business. Aerospace recently created one unified commercial strategic business unit named Commercial Aviation. This organization combines our business and general aviation and our air transport and regional business units to provide the consistent and world-class support required to win and grow our OEM and aftermarket business. Commercial Aviation OE sales increased by 4% on a core organic basis, driven by continued strong engine shipments and increased JetWave Satcom sales in business and general aviation, and higher sales to OEMs and air transport and regional, partially offset by a six-point headwind from the higher OEM incentives that I previously mentioned. As we mentioned in January, the growth in BGA OE is driven by our HTF7000 series engine, which has won four of the five super midsized business jet platforms. Commercial Aviation aftermarket sales were up 6% on a core organic basis, driven by better than expected ATR flight hours and double-digit growth in repair and overhaul activities. On the spares side, we saw an increase in airline spares, partially offset by lower spares sales in other parts of BGA due to the timing of channel provisioning. In China, both spares and R&O sales increased double digit on strong flight hours. Defense & Space sales declined 2% on a core organic basis driven by program delays and project timing in our U.S. service businesses. International business in particular faced a difficult prior comparison as larger projects were completed. And as a reminder, the international defense business grew north of 20% in the first quarter of 2015. Additionally, we closed the COM DEV acquisition, that's the satellite communications business we bought in February, and that integration is progressing nicely. Transportation Systems sales increased 6% on a core organic basis due to new platform launches and continued volume growth in both gas and diesel light vehicle applications. On the gas side, we saw double-digit growth in both Europe and China. On a reported basis, TS sales increased 3%, reflecting the stronger U.S. dollar. Aerospace segment margin expanded 70 basis points or 90 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of acquisitions. This was driven by productivity net of inflation and commercial excellence partially offset by continued investments for growth, including the higher OEM incentives. Let's turn to the ACS results on slide eight. ACS sales were up 4% on a core organic basis in the first quarter, above the high end of our guidance. ACS continues to outperform in high growth regions. Sales in both China and India grew double digit in the quarter driven by our connected ACS strategy and the benefit from our ongoing investments for growth. Sales in Energy, Safety & Security – so the products businesses – were flat on a core organic basis in the first quarter and include a negative 3% or 3-point impact from the 2015 completion of the U.S. Postal Service's contract in Sensing & Productivity Solutions. That is excluding Sensing & Productivity Solutions, the other three business units within ES&S were up this quarter on an average of 3%. The momentum continued in Security & Fire globally with the strong growth rates in both residential and commercial markets coupled with the benefit from new product introductions and further penetration in high growth regions. We expect S&PS to return to growth in the fourth quarter. Building Solutions and Distribution sales were up 11% on a core organic basis, outpacing our expectations. We continue to see strength in the Americas distribution business where sales increased over 15% on both the residential and commercial sides and growth has improved sequentially every quarter since the beginning of 2015. In Building Solutions, sales grew mid-single-digit reflecting strength in both project installation and service businesses. Orders growth was also healthy approaching 20% with particular strength in the services and energy retrofit businesses. We're encouraged by the solid improvement we have seen in our energy portfolio in HBS this quarter. Our selections though, where we have chosen in an RFP but have not yet booked the order, those selections stand at nearly 500 million and have been growing steadily over the past 18 months. In the past, I've described the slow pace of the conversion of this selection pool into orders. Well, we're starting to see some of the acceleration of that conversion. Energy orders were up over 350% in the first quarter, and we expect orders growth north of 25% in the second quarter. And for the full year, energy orders should nearly double. This has been driven by sales excellence and a differentiated offering that is leading to multiple awards. In an industry that is expected to grow at strong mid-single digits. We're also seeing traction in the service business in HBS driven by focused investments in NPI. Overall, the HBS backlog increased mid-single digit on an organic basis driven primarily by growth in Europe and Asia Pacific, and the conversion of backlog is improving. We converted on a number of larger projects and high growth regions particularly in India. The ACS margin rate contracted 140 basis points in the quarter, but was up 10 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of acquisitions. As I mentioned earlier, the margin expansion was below our expectations primarily driven by higher project installation and distribution sales, which carry lower margins. ACS continues to benefit from commercial excellence, productivity initiatives, and the impacts from restructuring. We continue to invest for growth in our connected product offer and in high growth region sales marketing and engineering resources. As an example, we have received great feedback thus far on our second generation of lyric products including our water leak and freeze detective products following our launch in April. I'm now on slide nine with the PMT results. Sales in the quarter were better than expected primarily driven by strength in process solutions, a business that continues to outperform its peers in a challenging environment. Process solution sales grew 9% on a core organic basis driven by double digit growth in our project businesses and by higher service sales. Conversion of the global mega project wins in backlog where we serve as the main contractor providing control and safety solutions for large installations picked up in the first quarter, and we expect this trend to continue throughout 2016. Orders were down low single digits on a core organic basis but improved in our higher margin software and service businesses. In particular, we see increased demand for our insurance 360 service partnership offering which is a multi-year agreement to maintain, support, and optimize performance of Honeywell process control systems. In UOP, sales were down as expected driven by lower gas processing, catalyst, and equipment sales. Gas processing faced tough prior year comparisons in the first quarter and while the domestic gas processing environment remains muted, international activity continues to be encouraging. Catalyst demand overall remains strong but it's not unusual to see variations from quarter-to-quarter as we have highlighted in the past. The first quarter declines were consistent with this trend following strong catalyst shipments in 2015. UOP's backlog was up low single digits driven by our catalyst business. Advanced materials sales were up 11% on a core organic basis driven by demand for our saltless global warming products as well as higher volume in resins and chemicals. The saltless growth is accelerating even more than we had expected and we continue to build out our capacity to meet the increasing global customer demand. In resins and chemicals, the volume favorability was offset somewhat by challenging market conditions. PMT segment margins were down 90 basis points to 20.6% or down 70 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of acquisitions. The decline was primarily due to lower UOP petrochemical catalyst sales, partially offset by strong improvements in margin rates in HPS and advanced materials. PMT benefited from commercial excellence, with favorable impact of raw materials pass through in resins and chemicals, and the impact from previous restructuring actions. I'm now on Slide 10 with a preview of the second quarter. For Honeywell, total, we're conservatively planning for sales of $10 billion to $10.2 billion, up 2% to 4% reported or down 2% to flat on a core organic basis. Segment margins are expected to be up 40 to 60 basis points excluding M&A, or down 10 to up 10 basis points on a reported basis. We see credible drivers to improving sales and margin expansion for the rest of the year including higher catalyst sales in UOP, higher product sales in ESS and improving segment profit from acquisitions as one-time M&A related charges taper off. We expect the tax rate to be 26.5%, EPS is expected to be $1.61 to $1.66 up 7% to 10% versus 2015. Starting with Aerospace. Sales are expected to be flat to up 1% on a reported and core organic basis. In Commercial Aviation OE, we're expecting sales to be down mid-single digits driven by the impact of Aerospace OEM incentives. Excluding the OEM incentives, Commercial Aviation and OE is expected to be up low-single-digit, with a ramp-up of key platforms in air transport and regional, partially offset by declines in BGA following significant double-digit growth in the second quarter of 2015, driven by strong engine shipments. Commercial Aviation aftermarket sales are expected to grow mid-single-digit again with an increase in the airline spare sales, improvement in BGA RMU sales and higher repair and overall activity. ATR flight hours continue to be strong, and we're also delivering higher SATCOM and other software upgrades to enhance our growth. We're seeing good traction from customers on our JetWave onboard connectivity terminal, which is currently undergoing certification testing for 26 different aircraft models. Defense & Space sales are expected to be roughly flat with higher product sales to the U.S. government offset by tough prior-year comparisons in the international business as larger projects are completed and by continued softness in the U.S. services business. In Transportation Systems, sales are expected to be up low single-digit with continued strong growth in light vehicle gas applications, partially offset by slower growth in diesel, based on the timing of new launches. As for the Aerospace margin rates, we expect a reported increase of 60 to 80 basis points, in line with the first quarter performance, and an increase of 80 to 100 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of M&A. ACS sales are expected to be down 1% to up 1% on a core organic basis, or up 9% to 11% reported, driven by the addition of Elster and the three acquisitions we announced and closed in the first quarter. We expect ESS sales growth to be similar in the first quarter on a core organic basis as continued momentum in our Security and Fire businesses and in our key high growth regions is more than offset by the declines we highlighted in S&PS. S&PS is expected to return to growth in the fourth quarter when we lap the comparisons to periods containing the completed U.S. Postal Service contract. In Building Solutions and Distribution, we're expecting low single-digit core organic growth, driven primarily by continued strength in the Americas Distribution business and the recent improvements in the HBS orders and backlog. Excluding the dilutive impact from M&A, the ACS margin rate is expected to improve 50 to 70 basis points, driven by commercial excellence, continued productivity and the benefits of restructuring. ACS's reported segment margin rate in the second quarter is expected to be down 20 basis points to flat. In PMT, sales are expected to be down to 3% to 4% on both a reported and core organic basis. UOP sales are expected to improve sequentially in the quarter, but will still be down double-digit on a year-over-year basis, driven primarily by continued declines in gas processing, particularly in the U.S., and the timing of catalyst shipments. Based on our stable UOP backlog and strong anticipated second quarter orders, we expect the catalyst business growth rates to improve in the second half of the year. HPS sales are expected to be up low-single- S&PS a second half digit on a core organic basis, driven by continued conversion of global mega projects and higher software and services sales, partially offset by declines in sales of field instrumentation products. Advanced Materials sales are expected to be up low single-digit, driven by strength in flooring products, Solstice sales and improving specialty products volumes, partially offset by the aforementioned pricing conditions in resins and chemicals. The PMT reported segment margin rate is expected to be down 10 to 30 basis points and down 20 basis points to flat excluding the dilutive impact of M&A, and this is driven by strong productivity, net of inflation, and the favorable margin rate impact of the raw materials pass-through pricing in resins and chemicals. Let's move to slide 11 to discuss what to expect for the rest of 2016. Our planning framework for 2016 contemplates a second half core organic sales guide of approximately 2%, and our full year guidance remains at up 1% to 2%. There are a few drivers which we expect will contribute to this modest second half core organic sales growth acceleration. We expect Aero and ACS growth rates in the second half to be similar to the first half. So in Aerospace, we're expecting similar strong growth in Aftermarket sales and for modest pickups in our Defense & Space and TS businesses to offset modest declines in the Commercial OE business. We'll see tougher comps in the second half of this year across Commercial Aviation OE, which as you'll recall, grew high single-digit on a core organic basis in the second half of 2015. In ACS, we expect S&PS business to return to growth in the fourth quarter as we lap the tough comps stemming from the completion of the U.S. Postal Service contract. We also continue to see traction on our new product investments, including the award-winning Water Leak Detector, part of the Lyric 2.0 suite of products. This, together with ACS's continued strong performance in High Growth Regions, particularly China and India, will support continued modest second-half growth. The majority of the improvement in the second-half growth is expected to be driven by PMT. Our UOP business was down significantly in the first quarter as we discussed. We expect a substantial improvement in catalyst sales as shipments accelerate on robust demand in the refining and petrochemical segments. We also expect improvement in the other UOP businesses. UOP's backlog is healthy, up 2% at the end of the first quarter driven by the nearly $1 billion in fourth quarter orders in 2015, and we're expecting a robust orders performance again in the second quarter. So with that, let's move to our full year 2016 guidance summary on slide 12. As Dave mentioned earlier, we're raising the low end of the full year EPS guide by $0.10 with a new range of $6.55 to $6.70, up 7% to 10% over the prior year. There are some minor puts and takes among the segments from the guidance we provided in March, but overall another very strong year expected for Honeywell in 2016. As we look at Honeywell in total, we expect 1% to 2% core organic sales growth. And total sales are now expected to be between $40.3 billion and $40.9 billion, up 4% to 6% on a reported basis. This increase in the reported sales reflects the incremental sales from the three new acquisitions and an update to our foreign currency assumptions. From a sales perspective, we're now planning the euro rate at approximately $1.10 for the remainder of 2016, roughly in line with the prior year and up from our previous assumption of the euro at parity with the U.S. dollar. This change in assumption of course does not impact the expected core organic growth rate. Segment margin expansion is expected to be up 10 to 50 basis points or 80 to 110 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of M&A, driven by commercial excellence, restructuring benefits, and continued proactive cost management. Below segment profit, our restructuring and other expenses remain stable and in line with our previous guidance, and we still expect the full-year tax rate to be 26.5%. Our pension and OPEB income is expected to be approximately $100 million higher than we anticipated in December due to lower service and interest costs as a result of our adoption of the spot rate methodology for our pension plans in the U.S. and the UK. We continue to expect our share count for the full year to be approximately 774 million shares, or approximately 2% lower than the 2015 weighted average share count of 789 million shares. We plan to offset any incremental dilution from new exercises over the course of the year to keep the share count at roughly 774 million. We've already spent over $1 billion in share repurchases in the quarter. While our strategy to keep our share count flat over the long term remains, we will continue to be opportunistic in our approach as the market allows. As I mentioned earlier, we expect free cash flow to be in a range of $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion, up 5% to 10% from 2015, with CapEx investments roughly flat to 2015 at approximately $1.1 billion. This will drive free cash flow conversion of approximately 90% for the full year. And as I said, as a result of our strong first quarter performance and the benefit from lower share count, we're raising the low end of our 2016 earnings guidance by $0.10 at this time. Let's move to slide 16 for a quick summary before turning it back to Mark for Q&A. Once again, we've demonstrated we can deliver on our earnings commitments, hitting the high end of our guidance range even in a slow growth environment, a big reminder of the value of our diversified and balanced portfolio and the strength of the Honeywell Operating System. Sales growth was better than anticipated in the quarter, and we continue to invest for future growth in new products and technologies, high-ROI CapEx, and our presence in high-growth regions. We're also continuing to invest in and execute on process improvements and restructuring. And we've again put to work a sizeable amount of shareowner capital, which will pave the way for future earnings and cash growth. We have confidence in our full-year guidance based on the tenets of supporting growth, being cautious on sales, planning cost and spending conservatively, and continued seed planting. So while 2016 isn't the easiest economic environment, we are confident we will continue outperforming our peers and performing well for our shareowners. As always, we're also thinking about what's beyond 2016. Each of our HOS Gold enterprises are hard at work focusing on breakthrough goals and profitable growth that we expect will drive earnings outperformance through our five-year plan and beyond. We look forward to sharing more over the course of the year. With that, Mark, let's move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Tom. Cindy, if you could, please open the line up for questioning.
Operator:
Certainly. Our first question is coming from Scott Davis from Barclays.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Well, lots here, but I just wanted to get a sense, Dave, and I know you're going to hate this question, but what's the signaling, if there is any, of making Darius COO now? I'll just leave it at that. What are you telling us? Are you telling us you might be thinking about retirement and this is a transition, or are you telling us that you need this role, you need a COO-type role?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would say – what I'm saying is that I think Darius is a damn good guy and I don't want to lose him. If I didn't promote him, who knows where he'd have gone?
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I wish my boss would say that. All right, I'll move on. I ask this question a lot because I don't get it. What happens with the UOP catalyst business when it goes down this much? Do you get a snap back? I looked back at history and I couldn't find any real trends. How long is it going to take to convert orders to revenues? Because it seems like your backlog is there. But do things snap back, or is this a multi-quarter kind of grind its way back?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me address it a bit, and then I'll ask Darius, who used to run that business, to weigh in a bit here. It ends up being pretty lumpy, as you know, like a lot of the stuff in UOP. And we generally can tell what's going to happen because you don't get the order right away and ship it out like two weeks later, so you do have some idea. But it still ends up being pretty lumpy overall. And that's why we said that this first quarter was going to be tough for us on both growth and margins because we knew that was coming, and that was the case here. But that being said, we have a pretty good sense for the year and what happens in the second half versus this first half when it comes to catalysts, and that's what allows us to be able to be confident in what we're saying for the rest of the year. So, Darius, anything you want to add?
Darius Adamczyk - President & Chief Operating Officer:
I think that's right, Dave. What we saw in Q1 of 2015 was a very strong shipment quarter in terms of our catalyst portfolio. And even within that catalyst portfolio, there's variability and it was a very, I'll say, margin-accretive set of catalysts that we shipped back in Q1 2015. And in terms of being able to convert it, we can generally convert it relatively fast, certainly within a quarter or at most a quarter or two. So as Dave pointed out, it can be lumpy. We had a very strong Q1 2015 shipment and I would say at some very favorable margin rates, which we expect to get those orders back in the second half of the year.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
The other thing to keep in mind here is this is our downstream business. It's serving refineries and petrochemical plants. The demand for the output from those units is very strong, and a lot of our catalysts activity has to be scheduled with customer service intervals as well. So that comes into play. And overall, I think you're right, Scott. The backlog I think speaks for itself.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay, I'll pass it on. Thank you, guys.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. Thanks.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Hi, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Congratulations, Darius.
Darius Adamczyk - President & Chief Operating Officer:
Thank you.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Just on the ACS margins, could you maybe just give us kind of a – definitely weaker than expected. I think you talked about the mix. Could you maybe just give us a little bit of more color on that bridge more precisely on what you were expecting, where it ultimately came in? And then maybe just give us a little bit of color on the one-time related deal stuff that kind of goes away either in the second quarter or over the course of the year. Because you didn't change your margin guidance for the year, and it just looks like a heck of a ramp to ultimately get there.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'll talk a little bit and then turn it over to Tom. In terms of the ramp, it's no different than what we were saying back at Investor Day or back in December because this is pretty much what we expected. It was down a little bit from what we thought on guidance largely because of the mix difference as you look at what happened in the Building Systems division, which after it felt like six or seven quarters of saying the orders are there, it's going to come; it finally did, which was nice. It was a good thing to see. So this is pretty much consistent with what we've been planning for all along. And as you take a look at second-half growth for the total company, it's, as I said, largely driven by the absence of negatives than it is by any big thing that we're counting on. So, Tom?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Just moving a little closer to details, Steve, the dilutive impact from margins was, from Elster and Datamax only a little bit. But it was 150 basis points or so, and that contains probably around $40 million of one-time kinds of things, but when you – and that's like the upfront inventory write-off and deal costs and so forth. So you're right; those will not be with us for the rest of the year. But that was already contemplated in our organic guidance that we had given you. So if you look at it on that basis for the first quarter, we certainly did have the productivity impacts that we thought we were going to have. We had good material cost productivity, good performance on indirects, and we actually had good performance on the Commercial side. The issue was what Dave highlighted. I mean, we had more sales in Distribution, more sales of Building Solutions products. I mean, 17% up in our Distribution business, 7% up in Building Solutions. And we also had, in S&PS, a little bit of unfavorability beyond the Postal Service contract that we talked about, a little bit of channel softness and inventory shifts. We're keeping our eye on that as well. So those are the puts and takes. As we said second quarter, we expect to snap back to 50 basis points to 70 basis points of expansion. We'll get the productivity. I don't think the sales – we're not planning for the – market or sales growth in BSD as we had in the first quarter. And we get more restructuring benefit as we move along. That's the way I'd characterize it.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And the S&PS thing being down, I mean, that should have been – that's kind of visible, right? I mean, that's something that you probably knew about earlier because it's a tough comp as opposed to a change in the business environment?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
No, I – we certainly knew about the U.S. Postal contract completion. But when you look at the...
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
So then what else?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
But it's a short-cycle business, and we go through indirect channels. And your visibility out on those is not much more than a few weeks, a couple weeks.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So, what happened on that, to Tom's point, there were two drivers. One we knew and planned for, USPS. The second one was distributor inventory levels which declined in the quarter, and we expect will probably decline again in the second quarter before leveling out. And that one is one that we had not anticipated. It just kind of happened. But we think as – once that, as you know, that level gets to where they want it, then you get back to the growth – you get back to the end market growth again.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Is there something – is there an industry there that you're seeing? Is it something – it seems like a lot of the macro in inventory-related stuff has stabilized. Anything more specific than that?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No, we don't think so from an end market perspective. It looks more like just distributors trying to be a little bit more cautious.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then one last question, just on the below-the-line stuff. You mentioned you're keeping your share count guidance the same, but then you said you're raising it partly because of share count dynamics. Could you just maybe clarify below the line what's changed, whether it's pension, restructuring, share count, what has helped you on the guide? Because it doesn't seem like the core profit guidance has changed very much.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
No, that's right. I mean, the big changes are the spot rate method on the pension side, which as we said, we fully expect to offset that impact with additional restructuring. We have eight acquisitions that we're integrating, and when we start to carry out our cost synergy plans, we'll really need to lean on that restructuring funding. So that's the – those are the major movements. The raise to the guidance is a reflection of the strong first quarter as well as the share count that we mentioned.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay, thanks.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Steven Winoker from Bernstein.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks and good morning, all.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Steve.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hey. Dave, I think a skeptic – maybe you look at some of the segment margins over time now and this quarter, for example, even ex-M&A, and say, look, after more than a decade of almost 1,000 basis points of segment margin expansion and well past prior peak in all cases that it's just getting harder and harder and bumpier for whatever reasons, mix, et cetera. What would you say, what are the one or two things that you'd point to say, no, that's wrong, very explainable as you just went through ACS and here is why that's wrong?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
An analyst skeptic? Isn't that an oxymoron? That's, that's....
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
We're paid to be skeptics, not cynics, Dave.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
First of all, we forecasted this was going to happen in the first quarter. And, yes, okay, we didn't beat it by 10 basis points, but we're certainly within the realm of reasonability. And if you take a look at the total years, quarters are a little more difficult, let's say, you have things move always perfectly smoothly, because you have things like UOP that just cause things not to be perfectly smooth. On a total year basis, there's – this is going to continue. And it's not so much where you're coming from and the 1,000 basis points, yeah, that's quite nice. But there's at least another 300 basis points or 400 basis points left to go if we take a look versus our high margin rate peers and we look at the industries that we're in and how others do in that industry. So this is going to keep going. It's not going to change. At some point, we will have to say, yes, we are the highest in the industry, and we can't keep talking about our margin rate growth story. But it's going to keep going. HOS Gold hasn't finished. The whole idea of being able to grow sales and hold fixed costs constant, those are still very real. And there's still a lot of juice left for functional transformation. There's still a lot left there. Yes, Tom, go ahead.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
If I could add, the other thing I would point to, Steve, is the unspent restructuring that we have. It's well over $300 million, and that will continue to replenish itself. We have requests for way more than we can fund every quarter, and we think that'll help it. The other thing is these acquisitions, I said we're integrating eight acquisitions. And when you look at the weighted averaging margin rate of those acquisitions for the first quarter, it's less than 10%. So that's diluting down our portfolio. So as we continue to integrate those and bring those in, that's going to be a big driver for us as well.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Very helpful, thanks. And, Dave, what are you currently thinking in terms of M&A again? I know you get this question all the time in size. And I guess also just given a lot of investor discussions, are there any circumstances under which you'd actually revisit your UTX bid?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We're starting with the second one, first. No. It's done. It's past. It had its time, and that time is gone. The – on the first one, while it's the same question, it's also the same answer. It depends. You know, we work an active pipeline. You never know when stuff's going to hit. And sometimes and we've been really fortunate this past six, nine months with a bunch of things that we were able to bring to fruition. Who knows? The rest of the year, there could be another 10, or it could be zero. And we're just going to continue to be smart about it. I still do the integration reviews like we've talked about in the past. We're just as disciplined as we ever were. If something makes sense, we'll do it. If we can't find stuff that makes sense, we won't. I don't mind being out of the market for a while and seeing what develops. We're going to stay sharp.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
I'm sure you have a lot of folks in the queue, so I'll pass it on. Thanks.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
All right, Steve. See you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes, good morning.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Just more a general question. A lot of conversations with investors about sort of global PMIs bottoming and bouncing off the bottom. What are you seeing? Is the world truly be accelerating as you look at your business? And when are we going to start seeing it in numbers? Thank you.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm hopeful that there is a global economic rebound, but we're certainly not going to count on it. If there was any region that surprised me in this past quarter, it was Europe did a lot better than I expected. I don't know if this is just a one-time bounce or something that's going to stay consistent, but I was quite encouraged by seeing that. It was a nice surprise. I mean, we'll see how much that turns into something. But right now, we're going to stay with this whole idea that this is a slow growth global environment and it's just the smart way to plan. And you see that reflected in how we are forecasting the second quarter and how we're forecasting the total year. I just don't think there's any percentage right now on being bullish about it. If it happens, great. I think there's a greater chance it happens than there is that it doesn't. But that being said, I don't see any percentage in being bullish about it.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And just a follow-up question, the dollar has been going up for years. And at the end, a lot of companies, you included, set up the hedging structure. And as this dollar trade is unwinding; A, how are you thinking about hedging in outer years; and B, other than hedging a weaker dollar, how does it impact your strategy?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
It doesn't really impact our strategy all that much because we have never really changed the way we did it. We've always tried to match cost and revenue as best we can, so I want to be producing in the markets where I'm selling. And as a result of that, I think it's put us in a pretty good position where we don't get out of whack with any competitor because of a currency mismatch. When it comes to the translation question, that's a separate one. We might consider taking some exposure off the table this year and next as we contemplate what could happen, especially as you look at Brexit and the possibilities there. But by and large, I don't feel as negative as I did about currency as I did, say, a year or two ago.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hey. A couple, maybe actually one for Darius since he's on the line. I just seen this morning that Grace is buying BASF's Catalysts business today. I just wonder if you could speak whether that was on your radar screen and maybe more generally, do you see M&A opportunities in that space for UOP or kind of related assets in that area?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Obviously as usual, we're not going to comment on specific targets. So quick learning from Dave. But obviously, the catalysts space is interesting to us. It's something that obviously is core to what UOP does, and I would just say that that's an area that, you know, it's something that we've been looking at both organically and if the right opportunity presents itself, it's probably something that we'd be open to as w00ell. But clearly a space that's of interest to us.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Great. And then, Tom, just on tax, Honeywell for years has had a very sophisticated tax planning effort, solving to 26.5% almost precisely year after year. Is there anything in what the Treasury said a couple weeks ago when they were aiming at inversions that spills over and increases the risk to your tax planning strategies?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
First of all, my tax director is going to be thrilled that you referred to him as sophisticated. That's going to be a new one.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
It's a first for him.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Just kidding. Of course, Jeff, we're not an inverted company, Jeff, as you know. But the new rules do apply to U.S. multinationals as well, and there are specific criteria that intercompany loans are required to meet in order to be treated as debt as opposed to equity. We're currently assessing all of our intercompany loans against these criteria. We'll likely be required to have more extensive documentation placed on our loans, and it may have an impact on our ability to pool our cash globally as well. We're currently assessing that. But otherwise, we're not expecting a material impact, including in our ability to do M&A and including in our foreign operations.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thanks, and just one more quick one, if I could. We're all just trying to get all the I's dotted on margins, as you can see on this call. Just the OEM payments for the year, if you gave that previously, I don't recall. Could you share that with us just so we have that dialed in?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yes, it's a little bit over $200 million for the year.
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Year on year, I think.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Right.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Year on year, $200 million.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Great. Thank you, guys.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
You're welcome.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Gautam Khanna from Cowen & Company.
Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Yes, thank you. I was wondering if you've seen any change in customer buying behavior in the ATR Aero aftermarket. we hear a lot about pooling of parts and part-outs. I'm wondering if you're seeing any of that because the numbers don't suggest it.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, those phenomena, both of those are real. And you're seeing the consolidation more in China, I'd say, than anyplace else. And the parting-out is real, and we referenced it ourselves in previous announcements. That being said, those are a couple of headwinds, but there are also tailwinds. And that's flight hours, for example, where people are continuing to fly and that's always good. And it more than offsets the impact from those other items.
Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC:
And in China, your spares were up quite a bit. Is there any – what do you think is actually driving that? Is it a restock? What's going on there?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'd say it comes back to flight hours again. They fly a lot. And that's really – I've said many times the biggest Aerospace driver we have is flight hours. And it's not tied to OEM schedules or airline profitability or any of that generally. The long-term trend is going to be driven by flight hours. If they're flying, everything ends up working out. Whatever short-term disruptions or benefits, whatever you're seeing, over time flight hours ends up being the driver. Flight hours continue to climb, and that's a good phenomenon for us.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I'd also add that when you look back at the first quarter of 2015, there were unusually low aftermarket sales, I think because of some of the factors you had mentioned, Gautam, and I think we'll continue to see the impacts of that, as Dave said. But overall for the full year, the flight hours are going to be what drives our aftermarket in China.
Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC:
And just to follow up on Jeff's question on the OEM preproduction payments, do you have any preliminary sense for what they might be in 2017?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I think the level will be similar in total to 2016, so flat year over year.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
And then it starts dropping.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
And then it should recede in the years after that.
Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. And last one, can you quantify the USPS headwind for us, quarter over quarter what the decline has been?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
In general, that's not the kind of specifics we'd share. We would say that – like we said, we knew about some of it. We did not know about the distributor side of it. So that was a surprise. But like any other inventory reduction, that corrects itself over time.
Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC:
All right, thank you very much.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You're welcome.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Nigel Coe from Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks for running a bit late here as well. Darius, congratulations on the role, fantastic.
Darius Adamczyk - President & Chief Operating Officer:
Thank you.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
So we've spent a lot of time talking about catalysts, so I apologize for another question here, but it is a big swing between first half and second half. Typically, how much visibility do you have on catalyst bed reloads? Is it three months? Is it six months? And how much variability do you have once you have a job in the backlog? Typically, how much variability is there and the timing of that? I can't imagine it's much, but maybe just comment on that, please.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
It's a mixture. There's stuff that we know about a long time ahead because some customers place orders a long time ahead. Others don't. But, Darius, you'd know better than me.
Darius Adamczyk - President & Chief Operating Officer:
I think when it comes to the second part of your question, which is once it's in the backlog, we can produce it fairly quickly, typically within three months. So I think the cycle, the conversion cycle time from booking to revenue is relatively short. In terms of visibility as to when the orders come in, frankly the visibility isn't great. It's a bit of a random function. Tom referred to this earlier about one of the fundamental things that's going on; this is actually a pretty good time for refiners. So what we're seeing is that refiners are actually putting off their turnarounds, which they're going to have to occur at some point. When that's going to happen, that's not really certain. But I would say overall, the catalyst booking pattern is somewhat unpredictable.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. So the second half view is best efforts, but not locked in. it's mainly (1:02:36), okay. And then obviously, you're getting beaten up a little bit on margin this quarter. Obviously, there are a lot of moving parts for the OE, support payments and the FX hedge. I guess the overall margin strength given those two headwinds is pretty extraordinary but just, Tom, maybe just comment on the hedge, the euro hedge. And if by some miracle the euro did go to $1.24 by year end, that's still a benefit to your guide net-net, but obviously, they will tax your margins somewhat. Is that the way to think about it? [005YK8-E Tom Szlosek]
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
At the income level.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Right, the profits are. The movement in our guidance was on reported sales. So we've never hedged it at the sales line level. So we do see the variability if the U.S. dollar goes to – if we go to $1.24 in your scenario, then yes, we'd have more sales, but our margins would be the same, so that would have an impact on the margin rates.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
It's why we break out the difference between operational and all the other items on the margin rate curve.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. And just a quick one on the inventories. The build in inventories, is that driven by the Aero build cycle?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
You've got a couple things going on in inventories, and I'd say the biggest thing is we're continuing to ramp up for flooring products. We've got significant pickup in, as we said, in second half there. And the other thing is the M&A. I mean, more than half of it is, of the inventory increase, is from the acquisitions that we've done.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Of course. Yeah, okay. Thanks, guys.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Nigel.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citi.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hey. Good morning, guys.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Dave, the TS business seemed to pick up in 2Q. Can you talk about the improvement a little bit more? How did commercial vehicles do in the quarter? Is it just easier comparisons there being in take/hold? And can you sustain the mid-single-digit growth that you're seeing going forward?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Commercial is still tough on the TS side. What you're seeing more were the benefits of the wins in the passenger vehicle side.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. That's easy. And then, Dave, just – I know the answer to this, but I'm going to ask it anyway. Can you talk about your organic growth guidance in 2Q? There's the 1% growth you had in 1Q. Is anything getting worse in the portfolio in Aero and ACS that leads to lower growth? Or is it just conservatism and you're not forecasting the BSD accelerated growth that you saw in the quarter?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would say it's more a case where we want to stay careful. So yeah, there's nothing that says there's a disaster coming in the second quarter or anything like that. We're just – we want to make sure that we stay conservative, and hopefully, the first quarter performance continues on organic growth, but we'd hate like hell to count on it and not have it happen. And I'd rather have it be the other way around.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Appreciate it.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You're welcome.
Operator:
And that is all the time that we have for today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Cote, at this time I will turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We were quite pleased to outperform again this quarter, and what we accomplished on organic sales growth, beating our commitment and the productivity generated to offset the known headwinds gives us the confidence to raise the low end of our EPS guidance by $0.10. We're encouraged by what we're accomplishing this year and next. And of course, we all hope that you feel the same way. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc. John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's Third (sic) [Fourth] Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Kyle. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's fourth quarter 2015 earnings conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website, www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we'll review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2015 and share with you our guidance for the first quarter and full year of 2016. Finally, as always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, everyone. As I'm sure you've seen by now, Honeywell delivered another excellent quarter, capping off a terrific year in a difficult environment. We delivered results at or above our guidance on segment margin earnings and cash flow. Earnings of $1.58 in the fourth quarter increased 10%, representing another quarter of double-digit earnings growth. We continue to drive margin expansion, up 140 basis points, excluding the impact of the fourth quarter 2014 Aerospace OEM incentives. And our free cash flow finished at $1.6 billion in the quarter, up 17% at a 127% conversion. For the full year, we increased sales 1% on a core organic basis while continuing our seed planting with investments in new products and technologies, high ROI CapEx and expansion of our global footprint. We're benefiting from our balanced global portfolio, diversity of opportunity and our ability to effectively manage what continues to be a slow-growth macro environment. We also proactively funded $160 million of new restructuring in 2015, and that includes $60 million in the fourth quarter, building on a healthy pipeline of new projects which will support strong margin expansion this year and beyond. Earnings for the full year of $6.10 increased 10%, representing the sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth. Our 15% dividend rate increase marked the 11th time in the last 10 years that we've increased our dividend. And we committed over $8 billion in capital during the year to M&A and share repurchases, which sets us up nicely to deliver for our shareowners in 2016 and beyond. We're reaffirming our 2016 earnings guidance of $6.45 to $6.70, up 6% to 10% year-over-year. We're facing challenging end markets, but we have a credible and attainable plan to achieve this guidance, and our planning framework has not changed. We'll support growth wherever we have it to drive outperformance. However, we'll also be cautious in our sales planning, and we'll continue to plan our costs and spending conservatively, ensuring we remain flexible as a company. We'll also maintain our seed planting investments for the future, supported by our robust pipeline of funded restructuring projects and continued investment in R&D. There continues to be a lot of exciting things happening across the portfolio driving our terrific results, and I can't help but highlight a few. At the 2016 International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Honeywell's latest connected offerings were on display, including the second generation Lyric Round Wi-Fi Thermostat. The new Lyric Wi-Fi Water Leak and Freeze Detector was honored by USA Today with the CES 2016 Editors' Choice Award. This great new product provides users with early alerts of water leaks and frozen pipes to avoid costly repairs. The detector easily connects to your home Wi-Fi network and provides a simple do-it-yourself installation. In 2015, our connectable product portfolio sales grew nearly 30%, a good example of the benefits from our continued investment and development of new technologies to support growth. Our win rate in turbos on new platforms was once again over 40%. Honeywell turbochargers are the no-compromise solution for vehicle performance, better fuel economy and compliance with emission regulations. Sales for both diesel and gas turbos continued to grow in 2015, and we estimate that by 2020, roughly half of all cars on the road will have turbocharged engines, up from one-third of all passenger vehicles today. We expect to continue growing faster than the industry due to our differentiated technology, global footprint, and the benefits of the Honeywell operating system. In November, Honeywell was selected to supply its HTF series jet engines, auxiliary power unit, advanced cockpit technologies, environmental control system and cabin pressure control system to Cessna's new Citation Longitude business jet, further evidence that we continue to perform well in super mid-size cabin platforms. Including the Cessna, our HTF7000 engine is now on four of the five super mid-size platforms, the others being Gulfstream, the G280, the Embraer Legacy 450/500, and Bombardier Challenger 300/350. Our platform engine has surpassed 2.4 million flight hours to-date. On the M&A front, we're pleased to have closed the Elster acquisition at the end of December, and the integration is underway. Elster brings outstanding technologies, including software, strong well-recognized brands, energy efficiency know-how, and a global presence to Honeywell in ACS. We look forward to updating you on our integration progress at our Investor Day in March. Earlier this month, we acquired the remaining 30% stake in UOP Russell, a global leader in modular gas processing technology and equipment. One of our objectives when we acquired the first 70% was to leverage the Honeywell global footprint to take this principally domestic focused modular technology to markets outside the U.S. This premise is now materializing. As an example, in the fourth quarter, PV Gas, Vietnam's primary gas provider, selected UOP Russell's modular gas processing plant to separate liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG, from natural gas at its facility near the southern tip of Vietnam. In addition, HPS will serve as the integrated main automation contractor, or I-MAC, and supply the integrated controls and safety systems for the facility and terminal. And we repurchased close to $2 billion in Honeywell shares during the year at attractive prices, which is nearly double the rate at 2014. We have and will continue to be opportunistic when it comes to share repurchases, which allows us to preserve our balance sheet firepower for repurchases or M&A as opportunities present themselves. And you can expect another terrific year for capital deployment in 2016. You can expect to see lots of exciting innovations at our Investor Day on March 2 where each of the businesses will highlight a number of new products and roadmaps for future growth and margin expansion. We also plan to share how software is evolving throughout the organization, which we believe is a key differentiator, particularly across the industrial space. We held our annual senior leadership meeting earlier this month, and I can tell you that each of the businesses are hard at work identifying new and innovative breakthroughs to drive further growth. Our seed planting for the future, great positions in good industries, diversity of opportunity, and strength of execution will allow us to deliver on our long-term targets and continue to outperform over the long-term. Needless to say, as we continue to talk amongst ourselves, this is an exciting time to be at Honeywell. So with that, I'll turn it over to Tom.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Dave mentioned our deployment of $8 billion in shareowner capital for 2015. That actually excludes $2 billion in dividends; and just to remind you, we've raised our dividend rate in the fourth quarter by 15%. The biggest component of the $8 billion is M&A. Slide four summarizes each of the deals, all of which have closed with the exception of COM DEV, which is expected to close imminently. We've previously articulated the rationale for each deal, and we're pleased with the diversity of the investment. So three of the deals are for Aero, two for ACS, and three for PMT, spreading the wealth, so to speak. You'll also notice the technology focus. For example, the Elster metering and analytics, the COM DEV space communications technologies, and the Satcom1 aerospace connectivity software. We also view each of these acquisitions as a great opportunity to deploy HOS goal to drive new growth and greater profitability while building on our great positions in good industries across the portfolio. We expect the acquisitions will generate strong future returns for our shareowners, consistent with Honeywell's track record, and we're excited about the M&A momentum as we head into 2016, as Dave mentioned. Slide five shows the fourth quarter results. Overall, our results met or exceeded the guidance we provided in December. Sales of $10 billion were flat on a core organic basis, slightly better than what we estimated during outlook call, largely because of our conservative planning. So we had improvements in Commercial Aero OE, in both ATR and BGA, UOP catalyst shipments, Process Solution Services, and the America's Fire and Security Distribution drove the stronger finish. The growth in these areas helped to mitigate the challenges we have in the oil and gas related businesses. On a reported basis, the sales decline in the fourth quarter was driven by the stronger U.S. dollar and the lower pass-through pricing in Resins and Chemicals, offset by the absence of the aerospace OEM incentive in the fourth quarter of 2014, which, as you recall, impacted both sales and segment profit in the fourth quarter of 2014. Segment profit, up 15%, with segment margins expanding 290 basis points to 18.8%, or 140 basis points when you exclude those OEM incentives. We drove profit growth and margin expansion in each of our three SBGs, so again, a balanced contribution across the portfolio. I'll talk more about segment margin in a minute. Items below segment profit were as expected. We did see higher pension income as a result of our fourth quarter adoption of the spot rate approach to setting our discount rate. The impact, however, was more than offset by about $60 million of new restructuring projects, which position us well for continued margin expansion. Earnings per share, excluding pension mark-to-market adjustment, were $1.58 and increased 10% from 2014, again, in line with our guidance. The 2015 pension mark-to-market adjustment was approximately $67 million unfavorable at $0.05 a share, principally driven by our U.S. non-qualified plan versus $249 million, also unfavorable, in 2014, or $0.23 a share. So as a result, the fourth quarter reported earnings per share of $1.53 were up 28% from $1.20 last year. Free cash flow in the quarter, $1.6 billion, was up 17% versus 2014 with conversion at 127%. We had a bigger improvement in working capital and lower cash taxes than what we anticipated in our outlook call. So overall, another strong quarter of margin expansion, double-digit earnings growth, and strong cash flow. Let me move to slide six to provide more detail on segment margin expansion with a slide that you're familiar with. As we've spoken about throughout 2015, our operating initiatives continue to drive segment growth led by the continued deployment of HOS Gold. We generated 100 point basis operational improvement in the quarter, and that follows 140 basis points in the first quarter, 110 basis points in the second quarter and 140 basis points in the third quarter. We've got attractive products with differentiated technologies and a software focus. Our factories and supply chains are maturing, our back office continues to get more efficient, and we continue to manage our indirect spend stringently. Previously funded restructuring, as well as new restructuring actions, have also enabled us to continue improving our overall cost position, and yet we believe there is more room to improve. The remaining 190 basis points of improvement came from our foreign currency hedging approach, lower raw materials pass-through pricing in Resins and Chemicals, and the absence of the fourth quarter OEM incentives. In 2015, we outpaced our five-year plan targets of 45 basis points to 75 basis points of segment margin expansion and we expect that the permanent improvements to our supply chain, footprint and back office through the deployment of HOS Gold will continue to drive margin expansion in 2016, 2017 and beyond. Let's move to slide seven and discuss the Aerospace results. Sales for the quarter were up 2% on a core organic basis, in line with our expectations. Commercial OE sales increased by 9% on a core organic basis, driven by the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in business and general aviation engine shipments and higher shipments to large OEMs in air transport. As Dave mentioned earlier, we continue to win on super mid-size business jet platforms. We also experienced good growth on key air transport platforms, including the Boeing 737 and 787 and Airbus A320 and A350, as we had anticipated. On a reported basis, commercial OE sales increased 45%, again reflecting the absence of the OEM incentives that we recorded in the fourth quarter of 2014. Commercial aftermarket sales, up 3% on a core organic basis, driven by robust repair and overhaul activities. R&O sales were up high single-digit in the quarter and have improved sequentially throughout 2015. On the spare side, we saw an increase in airline spares growth for both mechanical and avionic products. BGA RMUs, or retrofit, modifications and upgrades, grew double-digit in the fourth quarter, as we expected. Spares were soft in other parts of BGA due to the timing of channel provisioning. Defense & Space sales declined 1% on a core organic basis, driven by a number of program completions and project timing in our U.S. businesses. We saw strong growth in our international business on a sequential basis, but year-over-year growth was only 1% due to a difficult prior-year comparison. Just to remind you, the international business grew 17% in the fourth quarter of 2014. Defense & Space finished 2015 approximately flat, and we expect growth across all Defense & Space segments in 2016. Finally, Transportation System sales increased 1% on a core organic basis due to new platform launches and continued volume growth in both diesel and gas light vehicle applications. Our light vehicle diesel business grew in both Europe and North America while we saw double-digit growth in light vehicle gas in Europe and China. This was partially offset by lower commercial vehicle volumes, reflecting the soft conditions faced by our on-highway and off-highway commercial vehicle global OEM customers. On a reported basis, TS sales declined 10%, reflecting the stronger U.S. dollar. Aerospace segment margin expanded 420 basis points, or 50 basis points if you again exclude the OEM incentives. This was driven by productivity net of inflation, commercial excellence and the favorable impact from our foreign currency hedges, partially offset by the margin impact of higher OE shipments and the continued investments for growth. Let's turn to the ACS results on slide eight. In ACS, Alex and his team continued to position the portfolio for better and more profitable growth. With the closing of Elster, the newly acquired thermal solutions, combustion and gas, electricity and water metering businesses will be integrated into our Environmental & Energy Solutions business unit, which includes the legacy ECC business. The broader scope of this new business unit will position us for accelerated growth in both existing markets and attractive new adjacencies. We've seen similar commercial benefits from a combination of our security and fire businesses into Honeywell Security and Fire. In the fourth quarter, ACS sales were flat on a core organic basis. Sales by energy, safety and security, so the products business has declined 1% on a core organic basis. We saw continued strength in Security and Fire globally, another quarter of double-digit growth in China. The investments we've made in China continue to drive results, and we expect similar growth in 2016. And as Dave mentioned, sales of our connected products grew nearly 30% in 2015, as the continued growth following the launch of our new Lyric product offering. These improvements were offset by lower volume in Sensing and Productivity Solutions as we lapped the benefits of the U.S. Postal Service win in our Mobility business as well as by declines in Industrial Safety due principally to oil and gas related discretionary spending cuts. Building Solutions and Distribution sales were up 3% on a core organic basis in the fourth quarter. We continued to see strength in the Americas distribution business where sales growth improved sequentially every quarter in 2015, exiting the year up double-digit in the fourth quarter. This growth was partially offset by a decline in Building Solutions where we continue to experience softness in the energy retrofit business and slower backlog conversion. ACS margins expanded 70 basis points to 16.6% in the quarter, capping off another terrific year. The business continues to benefit from significant productivity improvements, net of inflation, as well as from execution of restructuring actions. At the same time, we've maintained our investments for growth. We've added resources in sales, marketing and engineering locally to drive further acceleration in our high growth regions as well as in our connected product offerings. I'm now on slide nine to discuss PMT results. PMT sales declined 4% on a core organic basis while segment margin expansion was again robust. And orders growth for the quarter was positive, led by very strong orders in UOP. Let's take it business by business, starting with UOP. Sales were down 10% on a core organic basis, driven by lower gas processing equipment and licensing sales, partially offset by strong catalyst demand. Catalyst shipments were up significantly in the fourth quarter, driven by new petrochemical units and refining reloads. Furthermore, we recorded nearly $1 billion in orders in the fourth quarter with growth across the entire UOP portfolio, including another international gas processing win. This brings UOP's book-to-bill ratio for the year to approximately 0.95, not bad in this environment, and we expect a portion of the UOP orders to convert in 2016, which would partially mitigate the market softness. In Process Solutions, core organic sales were flat. We finished the December better than anticipated driven by growth in services and projects due to an uptick in customer spend at year-end, offset by high single-digit declines in the field instrumentation sales. The HPS projects and services backlogs remained solid and we continue to see increased demand for our Assurance 360 service partnership offering, which is a multi-year agreement to maintain, support and optimize the performance of Honeywell control systems. So while our short cycle field instrumentation business basically continued headwinds of the industry, we are seeing improvements in our higher margin software and service businesses. Advanced Materials sales, down 3% on a core organic basis due to volume declines in resins and chemicals and specialty products, partially offset by flooring product sales, which, again, increased due to continued demand for Solstice low global warming refrigerant and insulation products. Volumes in Resins and Chemicals in particular were adversely impacted by unplanned and planned outages in the quarter. On a reported basis, Advanced Materials sales declined 15%, primarily due to the impact of the lower pass-through pricing in Resins and Chemicals as we've highlighted previously. PMT segment margins, up 380 basis points to 20.3%, driven by significant productivity actions net of inflation, commercial excellence, the favorable impact of raw materials pass-through pricing in Resins and Chemicals, and a heavier weighting of UOP catalyst sales. PMT continues to aggressively pursue further cost reduction opportunities, which help support further margin expansion in this slow-growth environment. I'm now on slide 10 to recap the full year 2015 results. Sales increased 1% on a core organic basis with good growth in our short cycle ESS and Transportation Systems businesses, strong engine shipments in BGA OE and continued growth from the ramp-up of our Solstice offering in flooring products. The reported sales decline reflects the unfavorable impact of foreign currency, the Friction Materials divestiture and lower pass-through pricing in Resins and Chemicals, offset by the favorable year-over-year impact of the OEM incentives, which did not repeat in 2015. Segment profits increased 8% with margins expanding 220 basis points. 110 basis points of the expansion was driven by the operational improvements in each of the businesses, as we've discussed throughout 2015. All of this resulted in earnings of $6.10, up 10%, clearly in the top quartile of our industrial peer group. And as Dave mentioned, this represents our sixth consecutive year of double-digit earnings growth. Reported EPS for the year increased 13%, reflecting the decline in the unfavorable pension mark-to-market adjustment that I mentioned earlier. Finally, free cash flow of $4.4 billion increased 11%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range, largely driven by improved working capital performance. Our 91% free cash flow conversion was dilutive by our investment of over $1 billion attractive high ROI CapEx in 2015 to support future growth. Adjusting to our long-term reinvestment ratio of one times depreciation would yield approximately 100% free cash flow conversion, which we expect to reach on a run rate basis by the end of 2017. Slide 11 provides a recap for the full year by business. The results are very consistent with our guidance. Each of our three segments generated triple-digit margin expansion in a challenging market environment. At the same time, we've maintained our investments in new products, high-growth regions and restructuring across the portfolio to ensure growth and productivity. With 2015 behind us, let's take a quick look at our end markets as we head into 2016. On page 12, there's no change in our assessment of the conditions in the end markets we serve and no change to our 2016 guidance that we provided in December. We continue to expect the slower global growth environment to persist in 2016. However, our portfolio, with its mix of short and long cycle businesses, balanced participation in numerous global markets and diversified offerings for consumers, commercial buildings, industrial complexes and governments will help us to grow even in slower environments. Our end markets in total are generally stable. We continue to actively monitor the dynamics in our oil and gas businesses, particularly on the exploration and production side. The challenging conditions we see associated with lower oil and gas prices was contemplated in our 2016 outlook. For Honeywell, this is somewhat tempered by the healthy demand for the output for refining and petrochemical plant operators, which bodes well in the long term for the mid- and downstream offerings of HPS and UOP, and that includes catalysts, advanced solutions, and other aftermarket offerings. In the event conditions do continue to deteriorate, we have the flexibility to further adjust operating costs fairly quickly, as well as other contingencies to help us mitigate market headwinds. As we look across the other end markets, which make up over 85% of our total portfolio, we expect the demand environment to remain stable. In non-resi construction, we expect a similar environment as 2015. The commercial aftermarket industry will continue to grow, albeit at a slightly slower pace, as flight hours remain positive overall, but increased airline efficiency and the retirement of older aircraft will tamper aftermarket demand. International defense spending and increasing U.S. DoD budgets will make the Defense & Space environment attractive. On autos, we have attractive and competitive turbocharger offerings, which continue to manifest themselves in our strong win rates. As Dave noted, TS won over 40% of all new launches in 2015, grew the business in both gas and diesel, and continues to differentiate through breakthrough innovation and technologies. Further, turbo penetration continues to improve and we're growing faster than the market. Our planning approach for 2016 remains intact. We'll support growth where we see opportunities to outperform, emphasizing those areas where a clear path to growth exists, like high-growth regions, UOP catalysts and flooring products. We'll be cautious in our sales planning in the end markets where we see uncertainty in 2016, and we'll make shorter-term adjustments to cost levels should softer end markets dictate. We also continue to plan our costs and spending conservatively, with a strong emphasis to drive productivity in all of our cost categories while remaining flexible as a company. Of course, we will continue our seed planting investments to create mid- to longer-term opportunities. This includes R&D and marketing investments, but also further deployment of shareowner capital opportunistically. Let's move to slide 13 to more specifically discuss each of our businesses for 2016. The green and red abbreviations on this page represent our full year 2016 core organic sales growth expectations for each business. Let me start with Commercial OE. Excluding the OEM incentives, the business is expected to grow low single-digit in 2016. The demand in ATR and BGA continues to be strong, and we'll see the new wins we've communicated drive volume growth, particularly in the second half of the year. However, as previously communicated, the OEM incentives will dilute these ongoing growth rates in our ATR business. As a reminder, we expense these incentives as incurred, unlike many of our competitors who capitalize and amortize them over the life of the program. On the commercial aftermarket side, we expect the strong R&O momentum to continue. Additionally, while it's been up against a difficult year on RMU sales comparisons for most of 2015 and BGA, we're expecting the business to return to growth in 2016 as it did in the fourth quarter. All the businesses in Defense & Space, so the U.S. DoD, the services in the U.S., and international, are expected to grow in 2016 as the market demand dynamics improve. In TS, the growth will also continue, supported by a strong backlog of new wins. And while the commercial vehicles market for our technologies have been slow, particularly in China, we anticipate a moderation in the declines for 2016. We expect low single digit growth in ACS across both the products and the BSD portfolio, driven by continued momentum in security and fire products and distribution, and above-market growth in China, offset by declines related to the completion of large projects in S&PS. In PMT, our previously communicated growth expectations remain. As we've highlighted on numerous occasions, UOP short cycle catalyst business tends to be very lumpy quarter-to-quarter, and its growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 was massive, capping off a double-digit growth year for that business. This sets up a challenging first quarter and full-year 2016, which, along with the tough year-over-year comparisons in gas processing, drive our expectation that UOP will be down mid-single digit in 2016. So on balance, no change to our end market outlook, but we continue to monitor the landscape as we move into the first quarter. And speaking of the first quarter, I'm on slide 14 with a preview. Relative to foreign exchange, our Q1 sales estimates contemplates our full year planning exchanges; so, for example, $1 per euro. However, for operating profit, as we've communicated, we are hedged. So for the euro, as an example, our estimates reflect our $1.10 per euro hedge rate. For total Honeywell, we're expecting first quarter sales of $9.2 billion to $9.4 billion, so that's flat to up 2% reported or down 2% to flat on a core organic basis. Segment margins are expected to be up 70 basis points to 90 basis points, excluding M&A, or down 20 basis points to 40 basis points reported. EPS is expected to be $1.48 to $1.53, and that's up 5% to 9% versus 2015 with a tax rate at 26.5%. So starting with Aerospace, sales are expected to be up 1% to 2% on a core organic basis. In commercial OE, we're expecting sales to be down mid-single digit driven by the impact of the OEM incentives, which we previewed in our December outlook call. Excluding the incentives, commercial OE is expected to be up low single digit with a ramp up on key platforms in air transport, partially offset by regional declines and slowing growth in BGA following a terrific 2015. Commercial aftermarket sales are expected to grow low single-digit with higher volume in airline repair and overhaul activity, and improvement in BGA RMU sales. Defense & Space sales are expected to be up low single-digit with higher sales for the U.S. government partially offset by tough prior year comparisons in the international business as larger projects roll-off. In Transportation Systems, sales are expected to be up mid-single digit with strong growth across both diesel and gas light vehicle applications. Commercial vehicles, which represent roughly 15% of the TS portfolio, continue to face headwinds from a down-market, but we expect the declines to moderate in the second half of 2015. As for Aerospace margins, we expect an increase of 100 basis points to 120 basis points excluding M&A. ACS sales are expected to be up 2% to 3% on a core organic basis, or up 11% to 12% reported, driven by the addition of Elster. Both ESS and BSD are expected to grow low single-digit on a core organic basis. We expect the momentum in our security and fire businesses, and in our high-growth regions, to continue heading into 2016. S&PS growth will be slower with the completion of the U.S. Postal Service deployment and we expect continued oil and gas related headwinds in Industrial Safety. In BSD, we're expecting similar trends to what we've seen in recent quarters with strength in America's distribution offset by weakness in the U.S. energy retrofit business within Building Solutions. As I mentioned back in October, we've been selected on a number of competitive RFPs, but the pace of conversion from wins into orders, and then eventually into revenue, is slow. Excluding M&A, margins are expected to improve 130 basis points to 160 basis points in ACS, driven by continued productivity and commercial excellence. Due to acquisition dilution, the ACS margin rate in the first quarter is expected to be down 50 basis points to 80 basis points. In PMT, sales are expected to be down 11% to 13% on both reported and core organic basis. We contemplated this slow first quarter in the guidance we provided during our December outlook call. UOP is expected to be down significantly, driven primarily by continued declines in gas processing and lower catalyst sales, as I mentioned. Sales in our catalyst business were very strong in 2015, but it's not unusual to see variations, as we've experienced in prior years. We'll see these trends again in the first quarter, in particular, but expect that for the full year 2016, the catalyst demand will again be strong. HPS sales are expected to be down slightly. In 2014 and 2015, we won a number of significant global mega projects where we serve as the main contractor providing control and safety solutions for large installations. These will begin to convert in 2016, but the resulting sales growth will be more than offset by continued declines in sales of field instrumentation products. Advanced Materials sales are expected to be up high single-digit, driven by flooring products Solstice sales as well as higher production volumes in Resins and Chemicals. PMT segment margins are expected to be down 90 basis points to 110 basis points, or down 40 basis points to 60 basis points excluding M&A, with the dilution coming from sales declines in our petrochemicals catalyst business. Let me move to slide 15 for the 2016 financial guidance for the full year. So consistent with our December call, we expect total Honeywell sales in the range of $39.9 billion to $40.9 billion, up 1% to 2% on a core organic basis, modestly better than our Q1 expectations, which as you've seen, are weighed down by the normal ongoing lumpiness in UOP. Reported sales growth will be higher, in the range of 3% to 6%, primarily due to the favorable impact of M&A, most notably Elster. Segment margin expansion is expected to be 10 basis points to 50 basis points, or 80 basis points to 110 basis points excluding M&A. We're confident in our earnings range of $6.45 to $6.70, representing 6% to 10% growth versus 2015. The full year growth linearity remains in line with prior years and is based on an expected full year tax rate of 26.5% with share count held flat to the 2015 full year weighted average. Of course, we'll continue to be opportunistic about share repurchase opportunities, particularly in these volatile markets. Free cash flow is expected to be up in a range of $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion. That's a 5% to 10% increase from 2015, with CapEx investments roughly flat at approximately $1.1 billion. This will drive free cash flow conversion of approximately 90%. Let me move to slide 16 for a quick summary before turning it back to Mark for Q&A. In 2015, we again demonstrated that Honeywell can deliver on its commitments even in its slow-growth environment. We met or exceeded our margin expansion, earnings growth and free cash flow targets while investing for future growth through enhanced research and development, continued investment in CapEx and funding of business restructuring, and we put to work some sizable amounts of shareowner capital, which will pave the way for future earnings and cash growth. As we turn our attention to 2016, we're planning for more of the same
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Tom. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. And we will take our first question from Scott Davis from Barclays.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Scott.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Dave, you're not a bad CEO. We'll give you a nod.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
That's appreciated. It only took me 14 years to get it.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Well, I don't know if you're worth $25 million, but if you can throw a pitch 100 miles per hour, maybe.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
More. I'm worth more.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
All right. Good. Well, can I answer your phones for you? Maybe I'd get a cut of that. But anyways, not much really to pick on, on the quarter. My biggest question really, the Elster deal looks – I mean, I think it was a really interesting transaction and the markets have gone maybe the direction that you probably wanted them to go the last couple of years. You've had dry powder, but things have been a little pricey. I mean, is there – are there other Elster-ish type deals out there that you are starting to see? I mean, where – you've always had some confidence in M&A, but a lot of the deals have been smaller. Are there bigger deals out there that are interesting, you feel like you're getting down into the right price?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, there's always, it's going to sound like a repeat of an answer, but it is true. We always have a pretty full pipeline that we're working, and there's some bigger stuff, some smaller stuff and you just never know when they're going to hit. You just don't, and you've heard me say this before, but it's like working in a retail store. You open up at 10 O'clock and nobody shows up till 2:30, and then five people come in the door at the same time. It just works that way. For last year, a lot of that came together in a very good way, and we're hopeful that it can continue again this year, but it's not one of those things you can guarantee, because we are going to stay very disciplined. It's the same rigor that we've used in the past, we stick with and I think my old team would tell you that I paid personal attention to every single one of these things on a nonbinding basis, a binding basis, the integration reviews with as much vigor as I did 13 years ago.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah. Makes sense. Moving more specifically, I think the one area that I've always struggled to model with you guys is PMT, and help us get a little bit more comfortable around UOP. I mean, if your core was down 10 and catalysts were strong, that implies the basic, what I'll call the consulting business and licensing business must've been down a lot. What's your confidence that that stuff comes back and catalysts don't normalize? Particularly, you've seen the GDP numbers out of the U.S. today. I mean, it's – you may have another tough year in front of us. I can't imagine catalyst growth can stay incredibly strong forever, so help us get a little bit more confidence around that because I think it's just impossible for us to know.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. We'll talk more about this at Investor Day, but you can expect that the catalysts are going to continue to do well, and Tom provided you some of the data and can provide more color, but catalysts will continue to do well because there's still usage out there and there's still demand for refined product. That's not going away. And that's really where demand comes from for us on the catalyst side. You're also going to hear more about the Parex cycle and how that changes. It tends to go through cycles, and we'll be coming up on a new cycle for Parex as we get towards the end of this year and into next year. When it comes to new projects, yeah, you're right, there wasn't as much, as many new projects put on the board as they were in prior years, but we actually took a lot of those hits last year. So as we start looking at kind of the comparables, as you go from one year to another, we should start seeing that coming out I'd say again towards the end of this year and more into next year. So while it's been a difficult transition, it helps for us that this diversity of opportunity you hear me talk about where oil and gas is only about 13% in total, so it's been manageable, not easy, but manageable, and I think you're going see UOP getting onto a growth path again as we get into next year. So, Tom, I don't know if there's anything you want to add.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. Just to put a little more color on what Dave said, I think the orders and backlog are holding up okay in what is a rough environment. As I mentioned, UOP orders were up over 50% in the fourth quarter, and that was across all their business lines so equipment, licensing, gas, and catalysts. So it's – and the backlog itself is held up pretty well. I mentioned 0.95 book-to-bill ratio. I mean the backlog is down mid-single digits is the way I would characterize it. When you talk to Rajiv (41:51) and the team, they are very excited about what's going on in chemicals and petrochemical catalysts in particular. We are the clear leader in that space, so when you think about aromatics and olefins and other things where we have a significant amount of presence, it's a big opportunity for us. So overall, I think it's – while we'll be continuing to be lumpy, the prospects are good.
Scott Reed Davis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you, guys. Good luck.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks Scott.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from John Inch with Deutsche Bank.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, John.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
David, it's nice to see a company report a quarter that isn't padded by 5% tax rates and below the line parlor tricks.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, thank you. As you know, I've been advocating for a long time that doing well in operations should make a difference. Operating earnings matter.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. Tom, what was commercial vehicle on the light side if you exclude, I'm sorry, what was Turbo on the light side if you exclude commercial vehicle? What was the growth rate there?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
It was roughly mid-single digit growth.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So I guess my question is if you think of Turbo, right, and the penetration you guys just articulated getting to the 50%, you would think this business should be pretty well-positioned to start to put up I think once you get over the commercial vehicle headwinds and double-digit top line, if you look back over time, you've always had this very favorable penetration, right, on gasoline side. You haven't really ever realized that. I think you maybe did it a bit in 2013. But just could you talk to your confidence level or how we should be thinking about the run rate for Turbo kind of post commercial vehicle? Like, why can't this be a really high growth segment and driver of profit for Honeywell?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. That's the whole point. You hit it exactly right. Go ahead, Tom, sorry.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Hey, John. You did say double-digit top line growth. I wouldn't – while I appreciate that sentiment, I wouldn't go quite that far. But it is a very strong, they do have very strong prospects. The position is very good, and our global presence, I mean, where we are versus where our customers are positions us very nicely and the business has – it's probably the best run supply chain that we have. So as long as the car market remains intact and there's orders, we're going to be on those platforms and no matter who the OEM is with our technology and with our ability to deliver.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
It's going to be very good growth. I can understand Tom's reticence of the double-digit, but I would say at the end of the day there are several phenomenon. One, the commercial market – both the commercial market decline and currency are masking the growth that we're getting in, say, PV side, both gas and diesel. That's going to continue, and when commercial goes the other way and you don't have an offset impact to currency, I think you're going to say it looks pretty darn good.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. I was literally taking your 40% win rate times the global auto sales times 50% delta, right, and then just sort of assuming currency and the commercial vehicle didn't factor in it. Let's put it this way. It's a pretty high growth number if you sort of point that out. Just as a follow-up, this merger between Johnson Controls and Tyco, JCI bought York, and you guys at the time pretty much downplayed the significance of why you would not follow in those footsteps. Does this merger, David, do you think give you an opportunity to take some market share here?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I don't know about taking market share so much because we really don't compete with them all that much. There's maybe a couple of places that we do, but there's not – the biggest overlap is really just kind of the service side of this, the Honeywell Building Solutions.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So because there's not a big overlap between us, I wouldn't say there's a big share opportunity there for us.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. But what about then doing a bigger deal? Does that, I mean, are you still sort of wed to this notion that you've got to really have it – be able to be ring fenced and bolted on? Even though Elster I realize is bigger, but you know, I mean, a bigger deal so comparables, I guess, to the significance of JCI and Tyco?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You mean, do I think I need to do something that's foreign?
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I think the angle is in a – yeah, I think the angle is in a very slow growth world, which you've articulated many times. Those two companies have decided that it makes sense to get together to try and drive some cost synergy or whatever, right? So I'm wondering about your own thinking towards possibly or the prospects of maybe doing a bigger deal perhaps because of the macro and what you're seeing with respect to other industrial companies. That was the question.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No. I don't feel compelled to do it because somebody else is. And I feel like we're big enough and we're going to perform very well on our own. That being said, as you know, many times I've said I'll never say never to doing something large even though it hasn't happened in 14 years, because you never know when that opportunity presents itself but, so I'm still open to it, I guess, but it's got to be a smart deal for own share owners, otherwise, we're going to do very well on our own. I don't feel like we need a lot of big help anywhere.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Got it. Thanks much.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Joseph Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Joe.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So, Dave, nice quarter. It's got to make you feel a little bit better about the Pats' loss last week.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Oh, geez. Why'd you have to put it that way?
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Sorry. I had to dig a little bit. Let me start on that – let me kind of start on a near-term question. Last year, I recall January getting off to a really slow start. It surprised you. It surprised us. I think it was down 8%. Maybe talk a little bit about just your quoting activity on the short cycle businesses over December/January, and how that's trending versus your expectations.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Right now, I'd have to say it feels just fine. I know last year we got surprised the other way. This year we're not getting surprised. But it's three weeks, so who can tell how the whole thing's going to go? But it's – I would say we're not having to deal with the same kind of negative surprise we had last year.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. All right. No, that's helpful. I guess maybe one of the things that we've been talking to investors a lot about recently with the Boeing results earlier this week was just the potentially weakening longer-term production schedule at Boeing. I'm just curious, does that change your long-term outlook at all on Commercial OE? Or how are you guys thinking about that today?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No, it doesn't really have any effect on us. And you've probably heard me say in the past, this diversity of opportunity that we talk about for the company in total applies to our Aerospace business, also. We're tied to basically everybody. And if you take a look at what's happening in the aerospace industry, the biggest thing for us is that flight hours increase. And flight hours last year were up 4% or 5%. They're likely to be up 4% to 6% again this year. And the big thing is that planes fly, and as long as they fly, and as long as there's a need for the kind of upgrades that we keep talking about, and as long as the technology keeps progressing towards this kind of connectivity and the need for airlines and passengers to just be connected better than they have in the past, those are all good phenomena for us. So no, it doesn't really have an effect on us. The big thing is flight hours continuing to grow and the technology, especially on the software and connectivity side, continuing to develop.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. That's helpful. Maybe one last question for Tom, just going back to PMT for a second, it seems like you're starting off the year pretty slow with organic growth expected to be down 11% to 13%. The guide for the year, I think, is down 1% to plus 1%. So I fully recognize the comps are tough in the first quarter, but maybe talk a little bit more about the confidence and the implied ramp for the rest of the year, especially given the catalyst shipments, the fact that backlog was up in Process. Just curious to hear some thoughts there.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
It's a good question. I mean, as we – and we gave you our guidance for the full year on both UOP, HPS, and the like. And given the backlog dynamics that we talked about as well as the visibility that we have into the service bank and HPS, in particular, we're still confident in the full year outlook. The first quarter is really a factor of this timing, and particularly in UOP catalysts. I mean, we were – we had a strong first quarter in 2015, and we had a huge fourth quarter in 2015. So both of those kind of play on the impact for – on the overall PMT. So minus 11% to minus 13% for the first quarter, yeah, but still confident in the overall outlook as roughly flat.
Mark Macaluso - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Yeah, Tom, if I could add, the other thing to point out, Joe, is that our gas processing business in 1Q of last year had just a fantastic quarter; so we also have a little bit of a comp issue just in 1Q, and that'll ease through the rest of the year.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Cool. Thanks, guys. Great quarter.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Howard Rubel with Jefferies.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you very much. I want to also stay with Aerospace. I mean, the deliveries at Boeing are really more due to timing because they're building new planes for R&D. It has no demand impact. But you have a lot of STC opportunities and GX, which you've talked about, Dave, a little bit, and some international. Could you talk for a moment a little bit about some of these, where you are in terms of getting the customers to sign up for these processes, because it really is game-changing?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Are you talking about on the connectivity GX side, that kind of thing?
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
Absolutely. And then, also, what you're doing still with COM DEV, and – if you can. I know it hasn't closed, but to the degree that that's possible, please.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I can't put any numbers on it at this point, but so far – and I think you'll get some of this at Investor Day – Tim's pretty excited about what he's seeing, the sign up rate and the speed with which they're able to acquire new customers here, because the value that Tim's able to add through is connectivity and the services, and now we're going to be able to expand that with Satcom1, Aviaso and COM DEV, along with the technologies we acquired with EMS. He's pretty pumped up about where he's going. So, so far, yeah, quite good.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
And then, just a follow-up a little bit with the portfolio. I mean, international had a great year last year with some of the expansion. You've got sort of a lot of nice mid-engine – midsize capability engines, and we've seen what you've done in bizjets. Where else can you do some things in the international market?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, a lot of places. And that's been one of, I guess, Tim's – one of Tim's big insights, as simple as it sounds, is 90% of life is showing up; and just Tim showing up in a lot of these places that we didn't in the past is making a hell of a difference. So that's going to continue around the world.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
And then finally, Tom, you have these significant incentives. Are they pretty evenly spread throughout the year this year? Or is there one quarter we should be aware of as being a little bit lumpy?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. No. They're pretty much throughout the year.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you, gentleman.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Howard.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, gentleman.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
How's it going?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Quite well, actually.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Pretty well, so far, it seems.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Yeah. It looks pretty good.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Jeff, I'm a little – while you got to like the market reaction, I got to admit, I'm still a little surprised that, after 14 years, people are surprised by us doing what we say.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Yeah, I don't know why that is, Dave. You only have to hit me over the head once or twice and I get it. 14 times, I don't need. So, hey, the margin execution, as always, is stellar. What really surprised me a little bit were the ACS margins were better than I thought, again, maybe just my modeling error, but was there no kind of Elster purchase accounting noise or something that pressured the Q4 numbers? I thought with the late close maybe you'd have some inventory step-ups, something like that, in the quarter.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
No. I mean, we closed on December 27, and virtually very little commercial activity. So we did do whatever pro rata portion of the purchase accounting that was required, but it was de minimis.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. Could you speak to how Elster actually performed in Q4, what the organic pro forma growth rate looked like and how you see it growing in 2016?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. I mean, I can't speak to the details of Q4, but as we look forward in 2016, Jeff, it's at or better than what we've modeled in our TVA. I mean, the prospects on the metering side in particular as the rollouts continue to occur in outside of the U.S., across all three of the metering platforms are very exciting for us. So you can think about mid-single-digit growth there for us. And also, the gas combustion that's going into ECC is also holding up in terms of what our expectations were for 2016. So, so far so good. I mean, we're early days in the integration, so a lot more work to do, but it's consistent with what we had expected.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Well, it sounds like there could be a little bit more upside in that accretion plan for 2016 would be a fair assumption?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I could tell you we're pushing all the acquisitions to do even better in 2016.
Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Right, as we'd expect. Thanks a lot.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Steve.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Hey, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Listening to Danny Boy on the music pre-conference call, and hopefully that's not a commentary on your tenure there in the near-term. Hopefully you're going to be around for a little bit longer. These are decent results.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
(57:35) you didn't have to listen to Tom singing it.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
There's been a lot of big numbers floating around out there on the capacity to do deals. I know you guys have said in your formal commentary from your Investor Day, it's, I don't know, something like $10 billion. I think you made a comment on Bloomberg that it was like $20 billion or something like that, $15 billion to $20 billion. Can you just clear the air on if something big came up, kind of how far, what do you think your capacity is from a ratings agency perspective? How far would you be willing to go as far as capital deployment, call it, over the next couple of years? What is that number?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, as we tried to show in the Investor Day a couple of years ago, I used the $10 billion as just an example because I felt like in our previous five-year plan, we got no credit for what we could do there, even though I tried to talk about how much cash capability we had ahead of us. And if you recall, I said at the time in there that we had something like $20 billion to $30 billion in capacity over the next five years when you looked at cash generation and debt capacity as EBITDAR grew. I'd say that's still the case. We've only deployed about $6 billion, $8 billion out of the $30 billion or so we're going to generate and the capacity that we'll generate over that five-year period. But we still have a lot of room to grow. In terms of how big we'd be willing to go, I guess it would depend on how good the opportunity would be. If we have something that could generate great returns, and we think there's forgiveness in the numbers and the ability to execute, then yeah, I'd be willing to go larger. But by the same token, it's got to make sense, consistent with how we've talked about deals in the past.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Right. And it's good to see that Elster EBIT has held up and hasn't collapsed on you like some other deals. Just a comment or a question on UOP. These international wins that you guys are booking, I know you had talked about a pipeline of 12 or so at some stage of the game. What is kind of the number of opportunities out there? Because there's a view that everything in energy is basically going down a lot, but this seems like actually an area where a little pocket that actually is growing and has some opportunity. How many of these are out there to offset what's going on in clearly a more challenging domestic environment and gas processing?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, we had a nice fourth quarter in orders on gas processing, Steve. There was a – one or two of mega projects that really contributed to the gas processing orders growth. There's a handful of things that we're pursuing internationally now. We don't really comment on the individual prospects, but I would say it's enough to keep the team busy. And we'd like it to be bigger, though. We'd like the pipeline to be bigger.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Right. But a couple of those are multiples of what the domestic stuff is, so it seems like that's a pretty good backfill for an energy environment where there's not much backfill elsewhere.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. Very sizable opportunities.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot, guys.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Good morning. So I think what we're seeing here is HOS Gold really does feel like it's accelerating the productivity, but I know you're going to talk about that in March, so I'll leave that there. I just wanted to come back to the M&A pipeline and the $20 billion, $30 billion ambition to deploy capital. And I'm just wondering, with this environment, arguably more willing (01:01:22) sellers, PE is constrained by the high yield market. Do you think, or maybe are you more optimistic that you can do another Elster or maybe something larger over the next 12 months, given the backdrop what we're seeing right now?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, let me just – since you brought up HOS Gold, I should add it's a lot more than just a productivity story. I would agree that HOS was that way because that was really focused on our factories and we brought that into the functions with functional transformation, but HOS Gold is much about the breakthrough goals and what that does to excite growth as it is a basic cost productivity. And I think you'll be quite encouraged with some of the stuff the guys are going to share, along the lines of something like three-quarters of our breakthrough goals involve software, the progress that we've made in breakthrough goals and how that's shown up. But HOS Gold is as much about growth as it is about productivity. In fact, I'd say probably even more so. When it comes to the acquisition side, I'll let Tom handle that one.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, I think the – I mean, it's a good question, Nigel. I think the expectations from a seller perspective, I don't think we've seen them moderate to any significant degree. I think you're referring to a private equity and your ability to get financing, maybe that's capping what we're seeing. I think you still see robust expectations from sellers. But with that said, I'd repeat what Dave said earlier into the question, which was our cadence around M&A is the same as it's always been. We take a look at opportunities every month in every business. There's plenty to talk about in each of those businesses. The sizes of the opportunities vary. And some of them could be sizable, like Dave said, but there's an equal amount or more that are of the size that we've historically done. So really nothing's changed. I can't say that anything is imminent except for the closure of COM DEV knock-on wood. So that's the environment, and we're overall encouraged that we can hopefully do something similar to what we did in 2015.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Okay, thanks. That's great. And just a quick one. I know we're running a little bit late here. I'm seeing that the bulk of the minority line in 2015 was UOP Russell. So I'm wondering now you've bought in the minority of the minority interest, what happens to that line going forward?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
That line will go down. To your point, Nigel, it's a subtraction from our earnings, represented the 30% minority interest in UOP Russell. We purchased the remaining 30% near the end of the year, and what that does is eliminates that deduct. We always had the full 100% of UOP Russell in our segment margin. So this will be an improvement to EPS but not necessarily to sales or segment margins.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Right. But it's accretive to earnings?
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Correct, an improvement to EPS.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
We will take our final question from Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks for fitting me in. And Dave, before you just hand Scott that job answering phones, make sure you conduct in-person interviews for all of us, okay? I think that can make a difference.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
All right, Steve. Appreciate it. I feel there's demand.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Listen. Cash flow, pretty darn impressive, 127% conversion. You guys talking about normalization on CapEx going forward, but this is a change from an external viewpoint of Honeywell in terms of the numbers we're seeing. So maybe give us a little more thought around not just the CapEx side but the rest of free cash flow and what's going on internally such that we should, over a longer period of time, be thinking closer to 100% free cash flow conversion as just part of the business model?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, actually I don't think it's a change to the story we've been telling. It may be how it's been perceived. But as you know, before we embarked on this CapEx expansion, we were generally over 100%. We said we had the opportunity to invest about $1 billion here at 30% and 40% IRRs that, yeah, they don't show up right away, given the magnitude of the projects. But it does show up, and when it does, it's quite good. And we've always thought that made sense. And the focus on free cash flow conversion, I found a little interesting, because I felt like a number of investors thought that I should pass up 30% and 40% projects so that I had good conversion that I could then invest in acquisitions at 15% IRR, which doesn't make a lot of sense. And that's why we said we're going to run this for the long-term. So we always planned on getting back to 100% as soon as we were done with the CapEx expansions. And Tom saying it was, we feel a message that we've been saying all along. But if it resonates better because we said it again, then great because that's been the message all along as far as I'm concerned.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
And you don't see – you continue to see a tale down in those projects, right, there's not new ones coming up?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, here's the part that is probably going to be frustrating for you, because while the answer is right now, no, I hope they do. Because if we have $1 million projects for 30% and 40% IRRs, I think you should want me doing that.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Yeah. No, absolutely. All right. On just non-resi, can you give a little more detail about what you guys are seeing? Are you seeing any deceleration and sort of residual impact of energy in certain parts of the country?
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No, I think it's still pretty much the same. We've said before, it's better than the slow growth we see everywhere else. But that being said, it's still slow overall.
Thomas A. Szlosek - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, I would add, Steve, to that, that, I mean, our businesses that participate, and they are, as you know, mostly ACS, Fire and Security had outstanding years, outgrew the market. So if you consider, I don't know whose number you want to believe, but the ones that I hear, say, non-resi grew somewhere between 4% or 5% in the year. We're certainly above that in some of our products businesses. As we talked about in HBS, we had constraints from the declines in the energy retrofit business. I think that's more of a timing issue than anything else. So, overall, a very strong 2015, and the prospects continue to look pretty good for the period we have visibility for the next few quarters.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay, great. Nice quarter, gents. Thanks.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the conference back over to Dave Cote for any additional or closing remarks.
David M. Cote - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, there's no doubt, it's a slow growth environment. That being said, whether it's slow growth or high growth, we believe your best bet is Honeywell because we do what we say. Our strong diverse portfolio and our ability to execute really does make a difference. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - VP of IR Dave Cote - Chairman and CEO Tom Szlosek - SVP and CFO
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Howard Rubel - Jefferies Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Gautum Khanna - Cowen
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Honeywell’s Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode and the floor will be opened for your questions following the presentation [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks, and good morning and welcome to Honeywell's third quarter 2015 earnings conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote and Senior Vice President and CFO Tom Szlosek. As a reminder, this call and webcast including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our Web site at www.honeywell/investors. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we’ll review our financial results for the third quarter, share with you our guidance for the fourth quarter and as well provide initial framework for 2016. Finally, as always, we’ll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, I will turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote.
Dave Cote:
Good morning, everyone. As I am sure you seen by now, Honeywell delivered another quarter of double digit earnings growth highlighted by our strong execution across the portfolio. Reported EPS of $1.60 increased 10% normalized for tax reaching the high end of our guidance range for the quarter. Sales of 9.6 billion were up 1% on a core organic basis. We saw continued growth in our business jet engines and repair and overhaul activities in aerospace, and in our short cycle residential, commercial and industrial products businesses and ACS. In PMT demand for UOP catalyst and sources applications continued. We generated free cash flow of 1.4 billion in the third quarter with free cash flow conversion coming in above 100%, and we expect that to continue in the fourth quarter. While we always like more, our top line growth was respectable in this softening macro environment and our relentless focus on execution once again resulted in outstanding margin expansion and cash conversion while continuing to do the seed planting for a bright future. Our segment margin expanded 190 basis points to 19.3%. Each of our three segments delivered margin expansion above the guidance we communicated in July. HOS Gold and our key process initiatives continue to drive productivity benefits. And our previously funded restructuring actions will help us to continue improving our operations. We proactively funded over $60 million of new restructuring in the quarter, building on a healthy pipeline of new projects and we intend on keeping that pipeline full to support strong margin expansion next year and beyond. There continues to be a lot of exciting developments across the portfolio, so let me tell you about a couple of them. We announced the acquisition of Elster on July 28 for $5 billion. Elster is a leading provider of thermal gas solutions for commercial, industrial and residential heating systems, and gas, water and electricity meters, including smart meters and software data analytic solutions. Infrastructure investments and increasing gas consumption in high growth regions like India or in China, will continue to drive demand for Elster’s gas heating assets, strengthening our existing gas combustion portfolio to create a full solution offering. Elster’s metering portfolio consists of basic and smart meters which measure volumes consumed by commercial, industrial and residential users. The growth here will continue as the adoption of smart meters and data analytics increases and as the legislative mandates in Europe, China or in other major regions take shape. In addition, Elster has a complementary presence to process solutions in natural gas transportation and storage. A large portion of natural gas reserves are found in remote regions. And as the long term trends in natural gas remain positive the need to transported from these geographies to the rest of the world continues to grow. That means more pipelines, regulators, control valves and metering systems. And with Elster we’ll be positioned well at each point of the value chain. Elster’s expected to add $2 billion in sales at approximately 20% operating margin building on our great positions and good industries in ACS and PMT. We expect approximately 8% of sales as cost synergies and our deployment of HOS Gold across the Elster enterprise will be the key to achieving the integration benefits. We're also confident that there are significant sales synergy opportunities particularly in high growth regions like China by leveraging our current channels and infrastructure. We continue to expect the deal to close in the first quarter of '16 and we're actively planning the integration. We continue to believe, we can significantly enhance share owner returns through M&A as we've proved in the past with acquisitions like UOP, [indiscernible] Thomas Russell and EMS. In August, Honeywell's partner Inmarsat successfully launched the third Global Xpress or GX satellite. The latest launch completes the GX satellite constellation which will ultimately provide passengers, air cruise and operators with high speed internet connectivity anywhere in the world, including on transoceanic flights. Aircraft connectivity is one of the biggest technological revolutions happening within the commercial aviation sector as the number of aircrafts equipped with passenger connectivity systems is expected to double to more than 4,000 by 2016 and wireless inflight entertainment is expected to be on about a quarter of the global commercial fleet by 2018. Honeywell's position to benefit from the growing demand and connectivity as the exclusive hardware provider for Inmarsat's GX satellite constellation and the exclusive wireless airtime reseller Inmarsat Global Xpress Ka band aircraft connectivity services for business aviation operators. As airlines increasingly look at how they can utilize real time connectivity for flight operational task like real time weather and database updates to the cockpit and proactive maintenance and as passengers continue to request faster Wi-Fi connections in flight, the need for Honeywell's Jetway high speed satellite communications hardware will continue. We currently have orders for over 300 Jetways systems in 2016 across our air transport and business aviation customer base with additional orders expected soon. In transportation systems, we unveiled our 2015 Global Turbocharger forecast at the annual Frankfurt international motor show. We now estimate that by 2020, roughly half of all cars on the road will have Turbocharged engines up from one-third of all passenger vehicles today. In addition, global market demand will drive an increased desire for turbo technology innovations that enhances vehicles overall power train system, reduced complexity and are catered to local market needs. In this period of accelerating turbo penetration, Honeywell is well positioned to meet the changing demands of our customers and we expect to continue growing faster than the industry due to our differentiated technology, global footprint and the Honeywell operating systems. With just over two months left in the year, we're confident in our ability to deliver on the earnings guidance we set for 2015 last December, despite the slower growth environment in the global economy since then. We are conserving our full year 2015, earnings guidance that approximately $6.10 per share, representing growth of 10% versus 2014, which would be our sixth consecutive year of double-digit earnings growth. We'll continue to be flexible and plan conservatively as we move into 2016. Tom, will preview our initial planning framework for next year. And as you will see there are bright spots in what will be a slow growth environment. We've demonstrated that we can execute well particularly in a tough macro environment, a big reminder of the value of our diversified and balanced portfolio and the strength of the Honeywell process initiatives. Segment margins are expanding, while at the same time, we are continuing seed planning in high growth regions, high ROI CapEx, process improvements and new products and technologies. The restructuring we funded will provide runway for future margin expansion throughout our five year plan. We're excited about the year ahead and look forward to discussing our plan with you in December. So with that, I'll turn it over to Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks, Dave and good morning. I'm on slide which shows the third quarter results. Sales of 9.6 billion, were up 1% on a core organic basis as we’re able to overcome a sluggish macro environment. Growth was particularly noteworthy in BGA OE where engine shipments were strong in our ACS short cycle products businesses across residential, commercial and industrial end market, in UOP catalysts and in our Solstice suite of refrigerants. The growth in these areas helped us to mitigate the ongoing challenges we have discussed in the oil and gas, commercial vehicle and energy retrofit markets, which we served. On a reported basis, the sales decline in this quarter was again driven by foreign currency and lower pass-through pricing in resins and chemicals. Segment profit increased 5%, with segment margin expanding 190 basis points to 19.3%. As Dave mentioned, all three of our segments came in above the high end of the guidance we issued back in July. We continue to benefit from HOS Gold, our focus on commercial excellence, new product development, functional transformation and strong cost control across the portfolio, while maintaining our investments for growth. So really nice work for us each of the businesses in a relatively tough environment. Similar to the prior quarter items below segment profit was favorable on a year-over-year basis, as we had anticipated. Higher pension income was offset by additional restructuring, as Dave said we funded over 60 million of new restructuring projects this quarter. Building on our $300 million plus pipeline as of the end of the third quarter, which positions us well for continued margin expansion throughout the five year plan. On share account in addition to our normal repurchasing to offset current dilution. We accelerated our repurchase activity in the third quarter, given the market downturn in the late summer. This actions will enable us to offset the expected dilution in the next few quarters and broader weighted average fully diluted share account were approximately 790 million shares for the quarter. We expect account to be approximately 781 million shares in the fourth quarter, as the forward impact of this repurchasing activity kicks in. Reported earnings per share of $1.60 was up 10% normalized to our expected full year tax rate of 26.5% in both period. Again coming in at the high end of our EPS guidance range and marking another quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Finally free cash flow was strong in the quarter at 1.4 billion up 43% versus 2014 with conversion of the 110% largely driven by improving in net income and working capital. We anticipate free cash and flow conversion to continue above the 100% in the fourth quarter, so overall another quarter of strong earnings growth, we are confident in achieving our EPS guidance for the year. Let me move on to slide five, you'll recognize this format we used to explain the components of our robust margin expansion in the quarter. A majority of the expansions coming from our operating initiatives, which as you can see generated a 140 of the 190 basis point margin improvement. HOS Gold is the overall driver, new product introductions and commercial excellence continues to drive volume growth despite than the slow growth environment. Each segment is generating significant productivity and we're continuing to see that improve our gross margin rates. Our supply chains are becoming more lean and there is a strong collaboration across the organization to drive down on material cost and indirect spend. We're also seeing savings from the previously funded restructuring actions. Moving over on the slide the bricks and material divestiture, our foreign currency hedging approach and lower raw materials pass through pricing in [RMC] also enhance margins collectively to the tune of about 50 basis points. We sold bricks and materials in July of 2014, so we've largely lapsed this benefit. However it is the permanent improvement for our margin rate reflecting our continued approach to capital location. On foreign currency our hedging strategy protects our operating result even if sales fluctuate with changes in currencies, so there is a lift in margin through yearend. And finally as we discussed our pricing model in Resins and Chemicals protects profit dollars in a period of lower selling prices, they are by increasing the margin rate. So another solid quarter of margin improvement driven by our operating system and key process initiatives. We expect to see similar outperformance in the fourth quarter as we explained shortly. Moving to slide six, and the Aerospace results. Sales for the third quarter were up 2% on a core organic basis driven by continued growth in BGA, OE engine shipments. Commercial after market and light vehicle gas volumes offset by lower commercial vehicle production and transportation systems. Segment margin expansion continue to be strong at a 150 basis points and we exceeded the high end of the guidance in the quarter. Commercial OE was up 4% on a core organic basis driven by double-digit increase in BGA engine shipments. As sales were up across all of the large business jet platforms in which we participate. Deliveries of our HTF engine continue to grow and we expect engine demands to be robust into the fourth quarter. Similar to last quarter air transport OE sales reflect as planned, while regional sales decline due to intentional delays on shipments to certain emerging market customers. Commercial aircraft sales were up 3% on an organic basis driven by continued strong growth and repair in overhaul activities, partially offset by lower spare sales. R&O sales were up high single-digit in the quarter and have improved sequentially throughout 2015. We saw a strong growth globally in ATR R&O particularly in Europe and APAC well our BGA R&O business continues to perform well at key North American market. On the spare side RMUs were Retrofit, Modifications, and Upgrades have continue to moderate us we have planned and ATR spare sales were slower than expected approximately flat in a quarter driven primarily by lower than expected demand in certain high growth regions principally China. Looking ahead we expect that our set com and other RMUs will offset some of this spare softness. Depends on space sales were up 2% on a core organic basis driven by double-digit growth in our International Defense Business. Demand from our Middle East and Asia Pacific customers was strong, while the U.S our sales were slightly down. Finally in transportation system sales increased 1% on a core organic basis due to new platform launches and continued volume growth in light vehicle application. Sales growth overall was lower than expected due to lower commercial vehicle volumes particularly in North America and China. We expect that commercial vehicle volumes will improve sequentially in the fourth quarter. On the reported basis sales declined 16% reflecting foreign currency headwinds and the [printing] materials divestiture I talked about. I want to take a minute to address some of the questions we received about the impact of the Volkswagen emissions matter on turbo technology and on our turbo business. I wanted to explain why this is far from a disaster from Honeywell and in fact it’s still an organic growth story. First, while we value the relationship with VW as we do every customer, our sales to VW represents less than 1% of total Honeywell sales. So, while significant, we’re not dependent on any one vehicle manufacturer globally. Second, the benefits of diesel engines remain compelling. Diesel engines operate at higher levels of compression enabling them to achieve higher fuel efficiency and lower CO2 emissions than gasoline engines. In addition, diesel delivers significantly higher torque enabling better acceleration and greater towing capacity and payload instruction like commercial vehicles. Third, the output for diesel supply continues to be robust as diesel will always be one of the useful outputs from the oil refining process. So as long as there is oil being refined there will be an ample supply of diesel. And last in the unlikely events there was a gradual shift away from diesel technology or from a particular OEM, we are well positioned on other existing OEM platforms and expect that we’ll continue doing a significant share of new platforms particularly in gas where we have an increasing position. On a year-to-date basis, our TS business has grown 3% organically and we expect that growth to continue into 2016 as global penetration of diesel and gas turbo charger technology accelerates to roughly half of all vehicles on the road by 2020. Transportation systems continues to be a key element of the Honeywell growth story. Aerospace margin expanded 150 basis points above the high end of our guidance range driven by commercial excellence, productivity net of inflation and the favorable impacts from foreign currency hedges. And [printing] material divestiture, partially offset by the margin impact of higher OE shipments and continued investments for growth. These includes flight testing of our connectivity offerings on the Boeing 757 test aircraft which some of you may have seen in Paris and new product introductions across our mechanical and electrical portfolio to ensure we continue to win on the right platforms. Let’s turn to the ACS results on Slide 7. In ACS Alex and his team continue to advance our connective ACS initiative. ACS has realigned four of its businesses into two strategic business units namely, Honeywell Security and Fire or HSF and Sensing and Productivity Solutions or S&PS, which encompasses the legacy testing and control and scanning and mobility portfolios. The broader scope of these businesses will provide us better scale in our high growth regions and differentiated connectivity solutions and will position us to better capitalize on growth opportunities across residential, commercial and industrial markets. You will hear us reference these businesses throughout the rest of the presentation. ACS sales were up 3% on a core organic basis in the third quarter as we experienced continued growth in our short cycle products businesses. ACS continues to outperform in China up 10% in the quarter, driven by our connected ACS China business and continued investments for growth. The ACS margin expansion was again very strong at 130 basis points and we exceeded the high end of our margin guidance range this quarter. Energy, safety and security sales were up 4% on a core organic basis in the third quarter, driven by the strong performance in our Security and Fire and Sensing and Productivity Solutions businesses. S&PS delivered another quarter of solid double digit core organic sales growth driven by volume from co-brand wins most notably from the U.S. Postal Service agreement along with new product introductions in China. The rest of ACS also continues to benefit from new production introductions and further penetration in our high growth regions. This was partially offset by volume declines in our industrial safety business due principally to oil and gas related discretionary cut. Building solutions and distribution sales were up 1% on a core organic basis in the third quarter. We continue to see strengths in the Americas distribution business or sales growth has improved sequentially every quarter in 2015. This was offset by decline in building solutions driven primarily by softness in the project installation and energy retrofit businesses. In the energy retrofit business, we currently have been selective in competitive RFPs for approximately 500 million of U.S. Federal and Municipal business, which will subsequently convert to orders and then to revenues. The conversion of these RFP wins in orders has unfortunately taken a longer time than we’ve historically seen, driving this pool of preorders to more than 2x prior year’s level. But as a precursor to future orders and backlog, this is a positive sign. And on the federal side, in particular, with the presidential challenge requiring award by the end of 2016, we believe these big orders will start to convert to orders in the coming quarter. Overall in ACS the backlog is flat year-over-year as growth in products and services has been offset by this energy challenge. Also conversion of orders and backlog has been slower than anticipated, particularly in Americas and EMEA. ACS margins expanded 130 basis points to 17.2% in the quarter. The business continues to benefit from good conversion on higher volumes and significant productivity improvements net of inflation. At the same time we continue to make strategic investments in new product development, connected product offerings and in our high growth regions which as we've noted, drove double growth and continued order momentum particularly in China. We expect further margin expansion in 2016 and beyond as the team integrates and builds out the connected ACS initiative we described at our Investor Day. And now on Slide 8 to discuss PMT result. PMT sales were down 3% on a core organic basis in what continues to be a challenging market environment for oil and gas. There is a PTM team had been resilient and unrelenting and they're focused to overcome these headwinds. We exceeded the high-end of our segment margin guidance by 80 basis points driven by strong execution and continued productivity action while maintaining our investments for growth. UOP sales were down 15% on a core organic basis driven by lower gas processing, licensing and equipment sales partially offset by robust catalyst demand as we had planned. Catalyst shipments to the new Holophane units accelerated in the quarter while catalyst orders were strong which we expect will drive substantial catalyst sales growth in the fourth quarter. The higher catalyst sales benefited PMT margins in the quarter as well. In gas processing, we're seeing some signs of life coming out of a quiet first half. We signed orders for two new Russell modular units and expect the orders to further build into the fourth quarter driven by international opportunities. In process solutions, core organic sales were down 5% driven by double digit declines in our short-cycle field product business and weakness in long-cycle projects partially offset by higher sales in our service contract business. The HPS projects and services backlogs remain solid up over 15% on a combined basis. In services, we saw an increase in demand for our Assurance 360 service partnership offering which is a multiyear agreement to maintaining support and optimize performance of Honeywell Control Systems. Organic orders were down 6% in the quarter and we expect similar challenges for the rest of the year in HPS as customers delay capital spending decisions and cut discretionary spend. Some of the spending cuts reflect the hesitancy in our installed base to remove high capacity and highly profitable plans from operations even for short maintenance periods. This deferred maintenance will eventually require addressing which will benefit our HPS service business and for that matter our UOP catalyst business. Advanced material sales were up 8% on a core organic basis driven by Fluorine Products which grew double digit for the fifth straight quarter as demand for Solstice low global warming products continues to ramp. In addition specialty products continues to benefit from investments in new products. On a reported basis, advanced material sales declined 8% primarily due to the impact of the lower pass-through pricing in Resins & Chemicals as we've highlighted previously. PMT segment margins were up 330 basis points to 20.8% which again exceeded our guidance driven by significant productivity actions net of inflation, commercial excellence and the favorable impact of raw materials pass-through pricing in Resins & Chemicals. PMT initiated cost management actions late in 2014 to address the challenges we anticipated in the oil and gas environment and have been very focused on reducing direct material and indirect cost. This was partially offset by continued investments for growth and capacity expansion and R&D to develop groundbreaking new products like Solstice. We have also benefited from ongoing restructuring reducing our fixed cost structure which should help to sustain the strong margin expansion we've seen here today. I'm now on Slide 9 with the preview of the fourth quarter, before I get into the preview, I want to spend a moment reminding everyone of the gain from the sale of the B/E Aerospace shares and OEM incentives from the fourth quarter 2014. We sold the remaining 1.9 million of B/E shares in the fourth quarter of last year and separately incurred a charge of 184 million for commercial OEM incentives in aerospace. On after tax basis there was no impact at EPS for the quarter or full year from these two transactions. The cost for these OEM incentives was included in the aerospace segment as a reduction of revenue while the gain from the sale of B/E shares is below line and not included in the aerospace segment. So the 2014 reported sales and margins for aero were comparably low. Moving to the fourth quarter of 2015, we're expecting another quarter of double digit earnings growth to cap off the year. EPS excluding pension mark-to-market adjustment is expected to be approximately down 58%, up 10% year-over-year. Total Honeywell sales are expected to be 10 billion to 10.2 billion or up 1% to 2% on a core organic basis. Segment margins are expected to be up approximately 120 to 140 basis points excluding the impact of the 184 million fourth quarter OEM incentives in 2014. We expect our margins will continue to improve on operational excellence similar to what we've seen throughout the year. We're still planning the full year tax rate in 2015 at 26.5% inclusive of the fourth quarter tax rate of approximately 27.5%. As I mentioned earlier, we expect the share count to be approximately 781 million shares in the quarter on a weighted average and fully diluted basis. We intend to be opportunistic based on market volatility and be ready to step in again when we see good buying opportunities. Aerospace sales are expected to be up 1% to 2% on a core organic basis. In commercial OE, we expect that core organic sales will be up mid-single digits driven primarily by continued healthy engine demand in mid to large cabin business aircraft. In commercial aftermarket, we expect core organic sales to be up low single digits with similar trends to what we saw in the third quarter, that is strong repair and overhaul offset by [fair softness]. Defense and space sales are expected to be flat to slightly up on a core organic basis with continued modest declines in the U.S. and slower growth in international business against a more difficult prior year comparison. As a reminder, defense and space international increased 17% in the fourth quarter of 2014. In transportation systems, sales are expected to be up low single digit on a core organic basis driven by both light vehicle gas and diesel turbo volumes, partially offset by continued headwinds from lower commercial vehicle production particularly in China as we’ve discussed previously. Aerospace segment margins are expected to increase 40 to 60 basis points excluding the fourth quarter of 2014 incentive and this is driven by commercial excellence, further productivity improvements and partially offset by the margin impact of higher OE shipments. Moving on to ACS sales are expected to be up 2% to 3% on a core organic basis with low single digit core organic growth in both ESS and BSP. Growth in our residential and commercial businesses within ESS should be similar to what we saw in the third quarter with good performance in Security and Fire in particular. On the industrial side, S&PS growth will be slower with the completion of the U.S. Postal Service deployment. And we expect continued oil and gas related headwinds in industrial safety. In BSP, we expect continued growth in Americas distribution to be partially offset by a slower conversion of orders out of backlog in building solutions. ACS margins are expected to be up 70 to 90 basis points driven primarily by commercial excellence, continued productivity net of inflation and the benefits of prior period restructuring. We will continue the investments in new product development and in high growth regions to support further growth in the fourth quarter and into 2016. PMT sales are expected to be down 2% to 3% on a core organic basis reflecting the slowdown we’ve experienced. We’re expecting UOP to be up mid-single digit on a core organic basis primarily due to strong double digit petrochemical and refining catalyst growth partially offset by continued declines in our gas processing and process technology and equipment businesses. In HPS we’re expecting core organic sales to be down mid to high single digits with declines in each line of business. We continue to see delays in discretionary spend across the portfolio and the conversion of orders into revenue has slowed. However, our win rate on mega automation projects is helping to mitigate these declines and drive a strong backlog. Year-to-date, we’ve won well over 50% of these mega competition. In advanced materials we’re expecting core organic sales to be down slightly principally driven by timing [employing] products. PMT segment margins in the quarter are expected to be up 300 to 320 basis points driven by strong productivity net of inflation and the favorable margin impact of raw materials pass-through pricing in resins and chemicals. While the fourth quarter will again be challenging for PMT, our disciplined cost management and productivity initiatives give us confidence to deliver on our commitments. Let me move to Slide 10 where I’d like to review on our full year 2015 outlook. Our sales are now expected to be approximately 38.7 billion, up approximately 2% core organic and down 4% reported versus the prior year. As for segment margins, we’re expecting the full year to be approximately 18.8% up 220 basis points or 180 basis points excluding the fourth quarter OEM incentives from 2014. This puts us well above the high end of the margin rate guidance we shared with you last December and on track to achieve our 2018 long term targets. There are some puts and takes among the segment since our last update, but we continue to have confidence in the segment margins for each business, its roughly 21% for both aero and PMT and 16.5% for aero. Strong performance across the portfolio and as Dave mentioned earlier we’re confirming our full year EPS guidance at approximately $6.10 representing 10% growth. While there is still work to do to ensure we deliver on our full year results, we have commenced our 2016 plan. On Slide 11 I’d like to walk you through some of our key planning assumption and initial thoughts by business. The table you see depicts our initial 2016 view by business compared to 2015. So just so I am clear neutral indicates the similar growth rate in 2016 as 2015. Likewise plus indicates a stronger growth rate in 2016 versus 2015. In aerospace, commercial OE growth will be in line with 2015. Our strong positions on successful platforms will drive continued shipments of new engines to key OEM following double digit BGA OE growth in 2015. On the ATR side, we expect slightly better growth as production of the Airbus A350 ramps. These and other new platforms will continue to support growth in our ATR and BGA install base and service businesses as we move forward. Our aftermarket business will be slightly better in 2016 due to continued strength in airline repair and overhaul activities and higher engine maintenance events in BGA, attracting in line with fleet hours. Our aftermarket business will continue to fluctuate based on flight hours and maintenance events, inventory levels and customer buying patterns. Defense and space sales are expected to be largely in line with 2015, or approximately flat to up slightly. We anticipate the U.S. portion of the business will continue to stabilize as we benefit from our strong install base and service offering. Our international business should continue with strong performance despite facing tougher comps year on year after several quarters of double-digit growth in 2015. As Tim highlighted back in March, direct international sales are expected to be above 35% of our defense and space business by 2018. So it will remain at growth engine for us as we move forward. Finally, we expect growth in transportation systems from new platform launches and steady volume growth in light vehicle gas applications globally, particularly in Europe. Similar to 2015, we expect to see moderate headwinds from lower commercial vehicle sales but also anticipate that this steep declines in CV sales will moderate. Overall turbo penetration continues to growth as OEM develops global engine platforms which can fill needs in multiple markets and we believe, we've well positioned to meet those OEM demand and win a significant portion of all new platforms. As a reminder a majority of our FX exposure is in aerospace within transportation systems, based on today's rate and our FX hedging strategy, we continue to expect the year-over-year EPS headwind in 2016 at roughly $0.15. For ACS we're expecting growth similar to what we've seen throughout 2015, roughly 20% of the ACS portfolio is in residential markets with reminder serving the commercial and industrial markets, growth in ESS will be driven by new product introduction and further penetration in high growth region. Our security and fire business is well positioned for continued growth and we expect with our energy efficiency and connected products and technologies will drive further outperformance. As we've mentioned the acquisition of Elster is expected to add approximately 2 billion in annual sales, so the sooner we close the deal the better. On the industrial side, we don't expect any near-term improvements to the headwinds we're facing in industrial safety and also see more difficult comps in S&PS after four straight quarters of double-digit growth. In BSD, we expect the Americas Distribution business to continue to perform well and that's a building solutions backlog and service bank will continue to grow. However, we expect a continued slow conversion into revenues particularly in Americas and Europe. Moving to PMT, we do expect improvement in HPS growth rates driven by strong backlog and improving service bank and UOP, we've seen increased levels of project quotation and the UOP team is optimistic of strong fourth quarter orders. But the backlog of equipment and gas processing orders will be down year-over-year which will make growth in 2016 challenging. UOP expects sustained catalyst demand after growth in the mid-single digits in 2015. In advanced materials, we expect the benefit from our significant Solstice win as demand for our next generation refrigerants continue to grow and we build upon our over 3 billion in signed agreements. We’re continuing to make significant CapEx investments in UOP and foreign products. In 2016, we'll be at a similar level of spend to 2015, this will support an expansion of catalyst production capacity in both the U.S. and China, including MTO and other catalysts as well as growing backlog of Solstice orders. Looking at segment margin, we have strong confidence in our ability to sustain the pattern expansion you come to expect from us, even in the slow growth in environment and even with the potential foreign exchange movements I've mentioned. As we pointed out we continue to have opportunity to close the margin rate gap versus our peers, starts with new products, they are almost always margin enhancing and our investments to develop new products are [indiscernible] in Honeywell. As the evidenced by our R&D as a percent of revenue averaging approximately 5% over the last three years. Our HOS Gold enterprises have the market and customer connections to ensure that the R&D spend is properly allocated. Pricing has also continued to hold up well. We have a standard pricing methodology tools and organization focused on maximizing value capture. We are equally focused on cost. The Honeywell operating system permeates everything we do, take our number one cost category direct and indirect material. We continue to mature our already world class sourcing processes and tools, which are creating an ongoing productivity paradigm. We're also continuing to invest in value engineering to lower our existing [bond cost] and make products easier to produce. There is also our factories. The HOS methodology is pervasive throughout the supply chain and in every one of our factories you can see the lean manufacturing supplier [indiscernible], the visual process management and collaboration that make HOS work. Also our creation of production centers of excellence where we perform similar activities in one place is starting to mature and payoff. An example is our electronic and manufacturing COE and ACS where we’re now producing printed circuit boards in one location instead of seven. And our high growth region footprint is providing a low cost based to support this consolidation, one where we derived the benefit of the stronger U.S. dollar as well. In addition our functional transformation and organizational initiatives designed to improve quality of support to the businesses at reduce cost are stronger than ever. We have dedicated teams supporting FT efforts in our back office organizations like IT and finance and we’re confident that these groups can drive sustained productivity while improving service level. Backing up all these efforts is our restructuring pipeline. We have over 300 million in unspent funding that will enable us to support the initiatives I mentioned. So we’re in the middle of our annual planning process and we look forward to providing you more details regarding our 2016 guidance during our Outlook Call on December 16th. Let me sum it up on Page 12. Once again we demonstrated we can deliver on our earnings commitments, despite limited help from the macro environment, a big reminder of the value of our diversified and balanced portfolio and of the strength of Honeywell operating system. We met our margin expansion and earnings growth expectations in the quarter with margins expanding in each business as we continue to execute well across the portfolio. We did this while maintaining our focus and investments to the future as our investments in new products and technology, high ROI CapEx, process improvements, restructuring and high growth regions continue to grow. As we are headed in the fourth quarter, we expect earnings to grow again 10% which will set us up for our sixth consecutive year of double digit earnings growth. We’ve had good momentum on margin expansion and free cash flow conversion which will continue as we close out the year. There’ll be continuing to be puts and takes across the portfolio as we headed in 2016, our strong segment margin performance and balance sheet capacity give us the confidence and flexibility to manage through the uncertain economic climate and provide a good foundation for continued earnings outperformance in 2016 and throughout our five year plan. With that Mark, let’s move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Heather if you could, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Certainly. The floor is now open for questions [Operator Instructions]. Our first question is coming from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Davis:
It’s good to see a descent print in what’s been a pretty crappy tape overall, so…
David Cote:
Thank you.
Scott Davis:
So keeping the wheels on. But in that spirit, it’s interesting I mean you’ve done a lot of what you call seed planting already years, and your margins are exceptional, the core growth continues to be just a little shy of global GDP. I mean what do you really attribute the core growth, the lower core growth and the [bps] in margins. And what I mean is that, is the seed planting and such in the new products, is that more of a margin mix shift improving position and you’re willing to trade some volume for margins, or is it just a function really of the end markets you’re selling into?
David Cote:
I’d say it’s a combination of things Scott and I think we touched on most of them. One is it a slow growth environment overall. Within that we’ve been able to -- with the new product launches that we’ve done, those end up being margin enhancing launches. But as we also said back in the Investor Day a couple of years ago that we were really going to start to see the sales inflection as we got towards the end of ’16 and into ’17 as we got the planned expansions done, the aerospace launches occurred. So we pretty much expected it was going to work out this way. In the meantime, we had a lot of seed planting we've done on the process improvement side, which continues. There is just a lot of process improvement still available to us that’s going to allow us to continue to expand margins at the same time that we invest in R&D. So from an overall sales perspective, while I wish that macro environment cooperate a little more and more than we certainly it’s less than what we expected at the beginning of the year, we’re going to continue to deliver very well on that sales growth because we anticipated that it was going to be on the lower side for ’15 and some into ’16 but that the inflections would occur after that.
Scott Davis:
So Dave you’ve been doing this a long time and I mean we see at least -- those are spin around a while, see some similarities here in 2015 to 2001 and even 2007 early 2008. I mean how do you think about the weakness in emerging markets and the follow up and how that increases risk at least to the -- I mean that's called a recession risk that we could -- a small event could take us off the cliff. I mean how do you think about that and how do you plan for it?
David Cote:
At least from my perspective, it feels like markets really think there is a chance of a recession here. And I guess while there is always the chance if there were some un-forward terrorist events somewhere or something drastic like that, I really don’t see that. This feels a lot different than it did in 2001 or 2008 to me, just because after a great recession we’ve never really had a recovery. 2010 was the only real recovery year that we had. After that it’s really been the slow growth environment and I think that’s kind of what we can expect over the next 2 or 3 years in the just way we ought to think about things, so I don't see boom coming but by the same token I don't see a crash coming. And I really think that the ability to perform in that kind of slow-growth environment is what's going to differentiate companies and that's the way we're playing that's the way we're thinking about things. As you know we always tends to be conservative on sales and we're continue to do that specially in this kind of environment. Does that help us?
Scott Davis:
Yes, it does. I guess I went back and I read all the transcripts from 2008 and everybody held on, held on, and held on and some of the similar comments then all of a sudden it will spell off and I just -- you have to -- in our job at least you have to start scenario analysis planning here and it's feeling a little sloppy, that's all. I don't disagree with your assessment.
David Cote:
No, I can understand the transcripts but if you look at like debt position of the say just the American consumer back then versus today, very different, bank capability, bank reserve, they're very different than what we're dealing with today.
Scott Davis:
Yes, certainly on credit. Okay, I'll pass it on and I know you have lots of questions. Thanks guys.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Guys I wonder if we can drill a little deeper into UOP and what you're actually expecting in Q4 in terms of kind of catalyst and other activity? And then just kind of triangulate it somewhere, where does that bring UOP for the year in terms of year-over-year change versus the prior year for the total year and really where I am going with that too then is thinking about your framework for ‘16 the reduction that you're looking for in activity is that actually an outright decline in UOP for ’16 and any other color there you could give us would be helpful?
Dave Cote:
Some overall comments and I'll turn it over to Tom. I'd say you're going to see at least three different phenomenon, I guess, one would be what happens on orders, what happens sales, what happens on catalysts. From an orders perspective that's been declining as you know and it's been a little lean here during this year and I would expect next year orders activity is going to pick up and we see that already as Tom mentioned on quotes activity. So we expect the backlog to start building again next year. I want to come to sales because of the lag from backlog to sales. We expect that sales will be down next year in UOP versus this year largely because of that backlog completion, the time it takes to build it back up again. The third phenomenon catalyst, we've seen that starting to pick up again which is a very good sign as you know and we also feel that there is this unrequited demand at this point for refinery reloads that refineries have been making a lot of money. So they have been wanted to ever shutdown to reload in the preferred dwindling yields to shutting down and getting the better productivity. In other words, we wanted to produce while the timing was in their and pricing was in their favor. And we see catalysts start to pick up when we expect that will continue through next year. You put all those together next year we expect sales to be down but orders backlog to start building up and this is just why we have a diversified portfolio, I would say diversity of opportunity for us to be able to manage that because it will come back and I have no doubt in a very good way. Tom, if you have…
Tom Szlosek:
Yes just to for a little more specific timing, definitely as Dave said, orders have been down particularly on the equipment and gas processing side. But with that said, there is a very strong pipeline for the fourth quarter and we kind of track the quotation activity in our salesforce.com applications and we are seeing a significant amount of inquiries and request for proposal and the like. And so we've got a very visibility to some what could be a strong fourth quarter, in terms of the backlog -- by the end of year sure it will be down year-over-year, but it's not going to be earth-shattering down, could be high single digits maybe slightly into double digits but that will be manageable. On the catalyst side, they're having a fantastic year and they had a fantastic orders quarter in the third quarter and it's going to lead to a really strong fourth quarter on the catalyst side. We'll probably be mid-to-high single digit growth on the catalyst for the full year and we hope to sustain that level of sales in 2016 on the catalyst offset, there is pressure that you will see a bit from the backlog I mention.
David Cote:
Jeff, I should add on the process control side, we actually expect sales will be up next year versus this year as we start to see the benefit of those megaprojects that we want.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning everyone. Maybe I'll follow-up on that last point on HPS because it seems like the growth in HPS clearly hasn’t been as some of your competitors and so if you can comment a little bit on the share opportunities there and what if anything you're seeing in terms of pricing pressure in that market?
David Cote:
Well. It's a kind of a tale of two cities on the short cycle side. We have seen the decline there that we've talked about. On the other side looking at these big projects the mega projects where we've always said that is really where our big market is and where we do a [projectedly] well because of the complexity and the numerous amount of input and output points that you have to maintain, we've always done well there and we've done really well over these last couple of years printing a lot of these big orders that are going to do very well for us and plan to see it through the future. We put all that together while this year has been a little tougher because of that short cycle impact and the tax at the mega projects still coming right away, that reverses next year and we start to see the benefit of that mega project kind of coming through.
Tom Szlosek:
Another thing I would add, Joe you asked about pricing in process solutions. Yes it is holding up well as you might expect with the discretionary cuts in our customers basis, you'd see some pressure there, but give the technology that we have really allows us to deliver some value that we are capturing pricing on. So it's holding up fairly well in that segment.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. No it's helpful. And maybe kind of following up a little bit on Scott's comments from earlier and asking explicitly, we've been in inorganic growth, you call the [indiscernible] for the last few years and your margin expansion has been really impressive. And you've been able to kick out double-digit earnings growth, as you look into '16, I mean is there an opportunity for you guys to continue to do double-digit type growth in the environment that we're in today?
David Cote:
I want to say that certainly one of the things we're going to be looking at as we go through our AOP planning and as I probably mentioned in the past we started planning for 2016 in particular back in January of this year recognizing that the kind of macro environment, we were in and that it would require more advanced planning than a lot of companies do when it comes to how far out you look. And we're going to talk a lot more about that at the December call. But I fully expect that in a slow growth environment we're going to continue to expand margins in a way that people are going to like.
Operator:
Will take our next question from Howard Rubel with Jefferies.
Howard Rubel:
Thank you very much. You gave your China numbers were pretty good. Could you elaborate a little bit on that, I mean it's probably a tale of the multiple cities and products as to what worked, what didn’t and how are you seeing the environment?
David Cote:
Well, you're right. China is a bit of I think dichotomy at this stage because there is somethings that are still doing well and something's that aren’t doing so well and depending upon which company you talked to, you can end up on either side of that. We are one of the guys that are doing pretty well overall. I say we are seeing the oil and gas negative impact there just like we are around the rest of the world. But when we take a look at our Aero and Turbo business that’s doing fine and when we take look at ACS in particular that’s doing great, still doing double-digit and as you know it's been very good for the whole year and I'd say driven by a couple of things. One is the kind of seed planting that we've done in the past, that we've talked about, where we want to be the local guy and there have more mid-market product and that’s really helped us to be able to expand the markets that we serve and pulling together all of the ACS stuff into a single China operation has helped us a lot there also. But I think some of this a good chunk of it is just our increased competitiveness and the ability to go after mid-market. On the other side of it, we're still in the second point of it. We're still in a decent spot when you take a look at the overall needs for construction and retrofit, old buildings there is still a lot of upside there for us with ACS so I'd attributed it to. Tom I don't know if there is anything you want to add?
Howard Rubel:
And then just as a follow-up on a little bit broader, a lot of the results were driven by productivity or HOS Gold or some things like that and this has been a terrific program for a long time. How do you modify it or change it so that people don’t become complaisant?
David Cote:
The other thing I would add is that all the new products that we had, that we introduce into the systems that have higher margin rates that what we have before because of the value was able to provide to the customer through either [Huey] or combing functions or been able to give them a better price with the better performance. That really does make a difference over time and just makes you much more competitive and a lot more profitable, so that impact is there in there also. In terms of keeping it fresh that's not that difficult I'd say for us to do and often times say the only thing that I ever worry about when it comes to Honeywell generally is that we lose our hunger. And I don't think that's going to happen, everybody still pretty hungry and wants to perform and we want that multiple premium that we think we deserve and we're going to keep doing everything we need to get it then I could promise everybody think in that way.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin:
A question on BAC conversion, it has been slow for a while, what do you think it really takes for to pick up and what was the last time we saw that kind of phenomenon?
Unidentified Company Representative:
I think Andrew you're referring to the orders phenomenon and I talked about the backlog yes. I think it's interesting the mandates on the federal side by the President then pretty clear to the agencies and they have gone out and done all the outfield work. They have found the vendors they want to work with and they've held the competitions and right now they're in the state of needing to move close these out and actually get to the work implemented. And we're seeing some delays on that as a go through the budgeting process for next year, but I fully expect that is as they are preparing budgets which is on the federal side that this will be a practice they have to consider and incorporate.
Andrew Obin:
And what was the last time we saw something that [ph]?
Tom Szlosek:
I don't recall -- that meeting everything is in.
David Cote:
This one kind of an unusual I have to say. We've got a little by it ourselves than it just shows there is a lot of pent up demand out there and I mean you're dealing with government, so they don't always move as quickly as any of might like, but that's all going to play in at some point here.
Andrew Obin:
And then can I ask you, sorry.
David Cote:
I would say it's a good deal for them. This is one of those things where with no money out on from them, they end up saving money which oftentimes takes them some work to be able to understand and convince others, but once they do it generally gets there. So I am pretty confident the stuff’s going to convert, it's a question of timing.
Andrew Obin:
And if you can give us a preview and I know you guys are going to have a sort of a call about this, but just in terms of five year plan if you look at revenues, it's no surprise I think that the revenues are running at the low end of the expectations. At the same time if I look at the margin performance it's just amazing, how should we think this framework growth versus margin in the longer term and do you need to adjust people's behavior inside the Company to sort of get more margin in a lower growth environment?
David Cote:
I am not worried about changing behaviors to get the margin rate performance because we're doing all that stuff now, so it's going to work out, that will work out fine. When it comes to how do we perform versus the five year plan, who knows what the economy does in ‘17 and ‘18 as I often times say the future has this odd way of unfolding differently than all of us predict and while I am predicting slow growth right now, there is a chance it could go the other way around. I don't see a recession; however, there is a chance that this could just become something a lot better. Put all that together and I would have to say the sales growth to your point that we estimated in the five year plan looks 40 at this point even with the inflexion that we're expecting. On the margin rate side still have high expectation there and as you recall in the Investor Day, one of the things we try to show was not just the 5-year plan but where we thought each business in the Company could get to. And when you look at that you’ve got pretty sure we had a chart in there a couple of years ago when we did this, when you look at that you see, jeez, there's still a lot of room to penetrate and we have higher margin rate peers in every single business that we're in and for the Company in total. And we're going to be able to continue to drive that and everybody in the Company is driving to those long-term numbers not just to achieving the 5-year plan.
Operator:
And we'll take our final question from Gautum Khanna with Cowen.
Gautum Khanna:
I have two questions if you wouldn't mind. You mentioned the strong bid pipeline for the Thomas Russell [indiscernible] gas processing opportunities, I was just wondering if you were to book a couple of those in next few quarters, could there actually backfill the decline you are expecting at UOP next year or are these projects mostly for delivery beyond 2016 and then I had a quick one on the aftermarket as well.
Dave Cote:
I would say on the gas side, to the extent that we get those quarters, we can turn them pretty quickly. We’re going to stay concerned on what do we really expect when it comes to orders, we were encouraged that we got a couple of orders there in this past quarter versus none in the first six months of the year and we’re hopeful that we land a couple of more in the fourth quarter and early next year, but too early for us to commit on that. In terms of with that alone be not have decline in EOP sales next year, I’d say that’s unlikely. Most likely what we’re going to be dealing with is sales decline when it comes to EOP. But as you know catalysts are pretty good for us and we expect the catalyst to form well and that let’s say good mix to have.
Gautum Khanna:
And if you could talk a little bit more about the commercial and aerospace, ATR spares trends you mentioned some of the geographies were weak. Do you think there has been destocking going on in certain geographies this year? And can you also talk about provisioning this year and perhaps next year given the A350 ramp you sided on the OE side? And thanks.
Dave Cote:
Well, a couple of comments and then I’ll turn it over to Tom. Trying to understand exactly what is happening out there when it comes to spares is always worth you’ve probably heard me saying this before but it’s kind of an amorphous blob in terms of trying to understand what’s in there and what’s happening. So as a result of that another reason we tend to [technical difficulty] to stay pretty concerned in terms of what we expect. Overall though we’d expect continued spares growth next year it may show as in the repair and overhaul area rather than what we might define as spares. But overall, we’d expect growth to continue there and there has been some softness in China that we’ve talked about. The overall way to look at it I think the indicator that I always pay attention to is what’s happening on flight hours and as long as flight hours are growing, it means that there is going to be a demand and pull for spares and repairs of some kind and that’s the overall long term phenomena on that matters. How it plays out in the short-term is a little tougher to figure out. Tom?
Tom Szlosek:
I mean you pretty much said it Dave. The R&O work that we do does consume a lot of spares and that R&O business is growing very strongly. And so when you consider them in their totality I think it’s very healthy and it is in line with the flight hour growth. So that’s what we expect to continue, yes maybe there is some consolidation in airlines or different buying behaviors but overall we have kind of become accustomed to those and dealing with our approach. So I expect us to be continue to be in line with the flight hours.
Gautum Khanna:
And provisioning, do you expect any change there year-over-year?
Tom Szlosek:
I think year-over-year it should be fairly stable.
Gautum Khanna:
And what percentage of the ATR aftermarket today is provisioning if you could just remind us?
Dave Cote:
I don’t think we go into that generally. Nice try though [indiscernible].
Operator:
That concludes today’s question-and-answer session. At this time, I’ll turn the floor back over to Dave Cote for any additional or closing remarks.
Dave Cote:
Thanks. We’re quite pleased with our continued ability to deliver double digit earnings growth even in this slow growth economy. And we recognize that kind of outperformance as what you have come to expect from us and we intend to continue outperforming. The growth programs that we have funded in every business and region will continue to deliver, and even more so in the future. That growth combined with continued process improvements from things like HOS functional transformation and GOE and the like will add to our capability to margin rates and we look forward to continuing to deliver for our investors. Thanks.
Operator:
That does conclude today’s teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso - Vice President, Investor Relations David Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tom Szlosek - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Capital Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley Steven Winoker - Bernstein Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Howard Rubel - Jefferies Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets
Operator:
Please stand by. Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Honeywell’s Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be opened for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Mark Macaluso:
Thank you, Lisa. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s second quarter 2015 earnings conference call. With me here today are our Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the second quarter and share with you our guidance for the third quarter and full year of 2015. Finally, as always we’ll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote.
David Cote:
Good morning, everyone. As you’ve seen, Honeywell delivered another quarter of double-digit earnings growth capping off a strong first-half to the year and positioning us well to achieve our fully year outlook as we head into the back-half. Reported earnings per share of $1.51 increased 10% normalized for tax coming in at the high end of our guidance range for the quarter. Sales of $9.8 billion were up 3% on a core organic basis. We saw organic growth accelerate in both the short- and long-cycle businesses within Aerospace, continued growth in our commercial and industrial businesses within ACS, and higher volume across our Advanced Materials portfolio, particularly in Fluorine Products. Each of our business segments achieved the sales estimates we provided in April and we expect that the sales acceleration we enjoyed this quarter will continue into the second-half of the year. The absence of friction materials, strengthening of the U.S. dollar and raw material pricings in Resins & Chemicals drove the difference between reported and core organic sales growth. Segment margin expanded 170 basis points to 18.4% in the second quarter and similar to last quarter large portion of the margin expansion came from improving gross margins. Strong execution across portfolio drove margin expansion in each of our three segments at or above the targets we communicated in April. Our Enablers and key process initiatives continue to deliver growth and productivity benefits and our previously funded restructuring actions provide the runway we need to continue improving our operations and cost base. We’re keeping that pipeline full, which is critical to supporting our continued margin expansion into next year and beyond. We proactively funded about $39 million of new restructuring in the quarter building on a healthy pipeline of new projects. While managing cost is critical, we’re also seed planting, and that is investing in capacity expansion, new products and technologies and resources in high-growth regions to drive future growth. We also continue to benefit from the strategic portfolio decisions we’ve made in the past, and we’re well-positioned and aligned to favorable macro trends with significant runway to grow. There continues to be a lot of exciting activity across the portfolio driving our strong results, so I can’t help, but highlight a couple. In June, our Process Solutions business hosted their 40th annual Honeywell Users Group or HUG, America symposium. A forum that provides users of our process control and industrial automation systems an opportunity to exchange technical information and provides feedback on their equipment service needs. The sentiment was decidedly positive and the turnout of over 1,200 channel partners, end users, and Honeywell sponsors from over 300 different companies was our largest ever. Customer interest in Process Solutions that drive increased safety, reliability, and greater efficiency was noticeably higher than prior years. In addition, Process Solutions announced a partnership with Intel Security to help bolster protection of critical industrial infrastructure and data combining the latest advances in cybersecurity technology with Honeywell’s unique industrial process domain knowledge, another example of our smart investments and commitment to growing our software capabilities, which we see as a key differentiator. In Aerospace, we announced last month an agreement to supply our advanced Primus Epic cockpit technologies to Dassault’s newly unveiled Falcon 5X. The new plane combines the latest features for safety and performance, including smartview synthetic vision, next generation flight management system, interview weather radar, and smart traffic collision avoidance, while achieving the lowest fuel consumption in this category. Our Aerospace team in Dassault developed the next generation cockpit with the future in mind, giving pilots and operators advanced communication, vision, and awareness features that simplify their jobs. And in PMT, our Fluorine Products [Technical Difficulty] additional $600 million in orders, with key OEMs for our Solstice low-global warming suite of products, bringing lifetime value of signed agreements to approximately $3.2 billion. We also have an additional $200 million in agreements currently under negotiation, which we anticipate finalizing by the end of the year. Our Solstice product has global warming potential less than CO2, making it a terrific choice for products and for companies seeking to reduce their carbon footprint. EPA phase-out rules restricting the use of high-global warming hydrofluorocarbons or HFCs in a variety of applications, including refrigerant, aerosol, and foam insulation blowing agents, coupled with approvals for the use of two additional Honeywell Solstice refrigerants as replacements for high-global warming HFCs continue to show that we are invested in the right place. The demand and adoption of Solstice products continues to be a great story for Honeywell. As we look ahead, we’re not counting on a significant uptick in the current macroenvironment. But we are confident in our ability to deliver continued sales growth and to leverage that growth drive further margin expansion. As a result of our strong first-half performance, we are again raising the low-end of our full-year 2015 earnings guidance range by a $0.05 to a new range of $6.05 to $6.15, up 9% to a 11% versus last year. We have a fantastic portfolio and we’ll continue investing in high-growth regions, high ROI CapEx, and new products and technologies, while maintaining our cost discipline and ensuring we deliver the savings from restructuring projects funded over the past few years. We’re in the midst now of our strategic planning reviews of each of the three segments, and we’re excited about each business’s innovation pipeline and growth opportunities. Over the next planning period, you can expect us to build on our track record of outperformance through the consistent execution you come to expect from Honeywell. We continue to enhance our focus on each of the 74 HOS Gold Enterprises, which we believe will make us more entrepreneurial and nimble versus our competitors by identifying breakthrough strategies and moves into smart new areas and adjacencies. I look forward to sharing more with you, of course, as the year unfolds. So with that, I’ll turn it over to Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks, Dave, and good morning. I’m on Slide 4, which shows the second quarter results. Sales of $9.8 billion were up 3% on a core organic basis, each of our segments met or exceeded the top line guidance we provided in April, led by our Commercial Aero – the commercial and industrial businesses within ACS, and Advanced Materials. And I’ll talk about each of these more on the business slides. We’re encouraged by the acceleration from Q1 and the momentum we have exiting the second quarter bodes well for the second half. As Dave mentioned, the Friction Materials divestiture, foreign currency and the raw materials pricing in Resins & Chemicals, all resulted in the reported sales decline this quarter. Segment margin expanded 170 basis points to 18.4%, that’s 20 basis points above the high-end of our guidance. Each segment is contributing to the impressive profit growth and margin expansion this quarter, and good volume and strong operations are playing a big part. On the volume side, our continued investments for growth in sales, marketing and new product development drove higher volumes in the quarter. On the operating side, we continue to drive improvement in our gross margin rates and continued moderation of our G&A rates through HOS Gold deployment, and our focus on commercial excellence, new product development, functional transformation and strong cost controls. Items below segment profit were favorable on the year-over-year basis as we had anticipated. Higher pension income was largely offset by additional restructuring. New restructuring projects funded this quarter were approximately $39 million building on our over $300 million plus pipeline as of the end of Q2, which positions us well for continued margin expansion throughout our five-year plan. We delivered the high-end of our EPS guidance range with earnings per share of $1.51, up 10% normalized to our expected full year tax rate of 26.5% in both periods, once again achieving double-digit earnings growth this quarter. Finally, free cash flow, $1.2 billion, 5% higher than 2014. Free cash flow conversion was 98%, and we expect to be in a net cash position of between $1 billion and $2 billion by the end of the year, there is no significant M&A activity. Overall, we continue to generate strong results in a relatively slow growth environment. Let’s turn to Slide 5. Our segment margin rate expansion was again very robust this quarter, as you can see a majority of the improvement is coming from our operating initiatives. The benefits of HOS Gold are paying off and we’re seeing that in every segment’s gross margin rate. We have attractive products with differentiated technologies and a software focus. Our factories and supply chain are well run and our back-office continues to get more and more efficient. In addition, new product introductions and further penetration in high growth regions, particularly at ACS, where we grew close to 10% in China, and greater than 15% in India during the quarter, are also big part of the story. The previously funded restructuring as well as new restructuring actions enable us to continue to improve our overall cost position. Also our segment margin rate was positively impacted by the Friction Materials divestiture, our foreign currency hedging approach and the Resins & Chemicals pricing model, collectively to the tune of approximately 60 basis points. We sold Friction Materials in July of 2014, so we will lap this benefit in the second-half of 2015, but this is a permanent improvement to our margin rate from exiting a business that did not meet our great positions in good industries criteria. On foreign currency, our hedging strategy as you know is to protect our operating results even as sales do fluctuate with changes in currency, another solid quarter of margin improvement driven by our operating system and key process initiatives. Moving to Slide 6, in the Aerospace results, sales up in the second quarter 3% on a core organic basis, above the high-end of our guidance range driven by good volume growth and execution. Commercial OE was up 6% on a core organic basis, driven by double-digit improvement in Business and General Aviation engine shipments. Engine demand continues to be robust and we expect to see continued Commercial OE growth in the second-half, particularly in BGA. Air Transport was flat, a reflection of the pluses and minuses in our customer build schedules for the quarter, while on the Regional side we saw lower sales volume overall. Importantly our installed base continues to grow in both ATR and BGA, which is a good sign for our future aftermarket business. And to that point, Commercial Aftermarket saw a nice improvement from the first quarter. Sales were up 3% on a core organic basis, driven by continued strong growth in repair and overhaul activities, and ATR spares sales, partially offset by lower BGA RMUs, or Retrofit, Modifications and Upgrades, in many cases, software based. RMU sales growth can be lumpy based on the timing of new product rollouts, and as you recall 2014 was an extremely strong year for RMU sales. And looking forward, we’re excited about our new product pipeline in this area. Overall, we saw a good growth in the aftermarket and anticipate further improvement in the third quarter and through the second-half of the year. Defense & Space, sales were up 1% on a core organic basis, driven by near double-digit growth in our international defense business. Here we continue to see strong demand in the aftermarket, and for our training propulsion engines and missile navigation products in South Korea and other high growth regions including Turkey. Well, in the U.S. our sales were slightly down. Finally, Transportation Systems sales increased 5% on a core organic basis due to new platform launches, strong volume growth in light vehicle gas applications globally and growth in diesel applications, particularly in North America. This was partially offset by lower commercial vehicle volumes. On reported basis TS sales declined 25%, reflecting the Friction Materials divestiture and foreign currency headwinds. On segment margin, the favorable impacts of the Friction Materials divestiture and our foreign currency hedges were drivers of the 140 basis points expansion in Aerospace, along with commercial excellence and productivity net of inflation, partially offset by the margin impact of higher OE shipments. TS was a major contributor to the margin enhancement in Aerospace this quarter. Not coincidentally, that’s a business where we see the greatest advancements in our HOS Silver certifications in our plants. Let’s turn to the ACS results on Slide 7. ACS sales were up 4% on a core organic basis in the second quarter, continuing the positive core organic growth trends we saw in the first quarter. High growth regions continue to stand out in ACS and we have good momentum heading into Q3 based on recent order trends. The margin expansion was robust and we once again exceeded the high-end of our margin guidance range. ESS, the products business, sales were up 5% on a core organic basis in the second quarter, driven by strong performance in our Scanning & Mobility, Fire Safety and Security businesses. Scanning & Mobility achieved its third straight quarter of double-digit core organic sales growth, driven by volume from recent wins, most notably the U.S. Postal Service agreement, and new product introductions in China where we continue to build on our Easter-East [ph] pipeline to support future growth. We anticipate similar volume growth in the third quarter and will discuss in more detail shortly. The rest of ESS also continues to benefit from new product introductions and further penetration in high-growth regions. From a regional perspective, China was up high single-digit, while in India sales were up over 15% with broad-based strength across the ESS portfolio. Building Solutions & Distribution, sales were up 3% on a core organic basis in the second quarter with continued strength in the America’s Fire and Security Distribution business. We saw continued organic growth in our project backlog and service bank this quarter, driven primarily by the Asia-Pacific region, which will help support a modest acceleration in the back-half of the year. ACS margins expanded to 120 basis points – by 120 basis points to 16% in the quarter. The business continues to benefit from good conversion on higher volume and significant productivity improvements net of inflation. We also continued our investments for growth, particularly in new product development and in high-growth regions. Our efforts to drive the more connected ACS, which Alex spoke about at our March Investor Day provide a runway for accelerating growth and continued margin expansion as we drive incremental synergies among our businesses through supplier rationalization, footprint consolidation and back-office improvement. So in total another strong quarter of sales growth and margin expansion in ACS and continued outperformance in their key high-growth regions. I’m now on Slide 8 to discuss PMT results. PMT sales in the quarter, $2.4 billion, down 1% on a core organic basis consistent with the guidance we presented last quarter. And we exceeded the high-end of our segment margin guidance by 70 basis points driven by strong execution and productivity action. Starting with UOP, sales were down 8% on a core organic basis due to declines in our Gas Processing, and Equipment and Engineering businesses, and the timing of catalyst shipments which we had previewed. Orders were down in the second quarter throughout the business, which is adversely impacting backlogs. However, activity in our Gas Processing business, both domestic and international is encouraging, and we expect orders in that business to accelerate in the third quarter, which along with the timing associated with catalyst reloads, lots of some of the softness we are seeing in UOP. In Process Solutions, our portfolio is broader and more diverse than our competitors. We have a unique combination of automation technology, field instrumentation products, and aftermarket offerings in the form of contracted and spot service, software, and consultative solutions that our competitors do not have. So while our short cycle field instrumentation business faces headwinds like many others in the industry, we are seeing sales growth in our high-margin software and service businesses. Customers are looking to our optimization solutions for productivity enhancements to their current asset base. So overall, HPS core organic sales were down 4% and our orders were down only 2% in the quarter. Our large projects business had strong orders in the quarter, particularly in the Middle East, where we see infrastructure investments continuing. The HPS backlog is solid and increased over 15% organically, which gives us confidence in our growth projection. Advanced Materials sales were up 8% on a core organic basis, the growth was broad-based across the entire portfolio. Fluorine Products grew double-digit for the fourth straight quarter, as demand for Solstice low-global warming products continue to escalate. As Dave mentioned, we presently have roughly $3.2 billion of signed agreements and another $200 million under negotiation. To-date in 2015 alone, we signed over $900 million in new orders. In addition, sales in both Resins & Chemicals and Specialty Products grew on a core organic basis on higher volumes as new product introduction here continue to drive results. On segment margin, the PMT leadership team got out ahead of the market pressures to ensure we deliver the 2015 commitments. Q2 segment margins exceeded our guidance and were up 330 basis points to 21.3%. This was driven by a significant productivity action, net of inflation, commercial excellence, and the impact of raw materials pricing in Resins & Chemicals, partially offset by continued investments for growth. PMT continues to aggressively pursue further cost reduction opportunities, which should help sustain the strong margin expansion we’ve seen in the first-half of 2015. I’m now on Slide 9 with a preview of the third quarter. We’re expecting total Honeywell sales of $9.7 billion to $9.9 billion, which would be up 3% to 4% on a core organic basis. Segment margins are expected to be up again approximately 120 basis points to 140 basis points, and we expect our margin rates to benefit from operational excellence and good execution similar to the first-half margin expansion. EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.51 to $1.56, which is up 6% to 9% normalized for tax at 26.5% in both years. Aerospace sales are expected be up 3% to 4% on a core organic basis. In Commercial OE, we expect that core organic sales will be up mid single-digit driven primarily by continued healthy engine demand in the mid-to-large cabin business aircraft. In commercial aftermarket, we expect core organic sales to be up low-to-mid single-digit with continued repair and overhaul and ATR spares growth, partially offset by modestly lower BGA spares sales. Defense & Space sales are expected to be up low single-digit on a core organic basis driven by continued strength in the international business, where we anticipate double-digit growth, offset by a slight decline in the U.S. Transportation Systems sales are expected to be up low to mid single-digit on a core organic basis driven by both light-vehicle gas and diesel turbo volumes. We expect Aerospace segment margins to increase 80 basis points to a 100 basis points in the quarter, driven by commercial excellence, further productivity improvements, and the favorable impacts of the Friction Materials divestiture, which will realize through July. ACS sales are expected to be up 4% to 5% on a core organic basis with mid single-digit core organic growth in ESS and low single-digit core organic growth in BSD. We expected growth in ESS will be driven by our scanning mobility, fire safety, and security businesses along with the benefits from new product introductions and high-growth region penetration. ACS margins are expected to be up 50 basis points to 70 basis points, driven primarily by good conversion on higher volumes and continued productivity net of inflation. We will continue ramping up investments in new product development in adding feet on the street in high-growth region. PMT sales are expected to be flat to up 1% on a core organic basis. We’re expecting UOP to be down mid to high single-digit on a core organic basis, primarily due to licensing and equipment declines and difficult year-over-year comps in our catalyst business. But partially offset by modest growth in the gas processing business. In HPS, we’re expecting core organic sales to be slightly better than the second quarter as growth continues in our higher margin software and service businesses. And we see a modest uptick in our process technology business driven by a conversion of large projects in the backlog. HPS continues to be a strong contributor to the margin rate improvement in PMT, driven by sales growth in our higher margin software and service businesses and productivity initiatives. In Advanced Materials we’re expecting high single-digit core organic growth, principally driven by continued strength in Fluorine Products, as well as improving volumes in Resins & Chemicals and Specialty products. Overall, PMT segment margins in the quarter are expected to be up 230 basis points to 250 basis points, driven by strong productivity net of inflation and the favorable margin rate impact of the market-based pricing model in Resins & Chemicals. While second half of the year will be built – will be challenging for PMT, the strong growth in our Advanced Materials portfolio and our disciplined cost management and productivity initiatives give us confidence in our forecast. Let’s turn to Slide 10 to address the trends we’re seeing in our key end markets and discuss how they’re impacting our outlook. On balance, you can see an overall positive perspective, beginning with nonresidential portion of ACS. We expect the acceleration in commercial construction spending and our positive outlook for the year, the full year remains intact. We saw strong growth in our short-cycle businesses in Fire Safety and Security; and expected new wins, commercial excellence, and initiatives in high-growth region as well as positive end market trends will continue to drive growth in these businesses. As for building solutions, the firm backlog in our projects business and growth in our service bank supporting improvement for the remainder of 2015. On the industrial side, we continue to benefit from the demand for productivity solutions and increasing safety standards across the globe, as activity picks up in both the U.S. and in our high-growth regions. So overall, good momentum as we head into the third quarter after solid core organic growth in the second quarter. In Aerospace, our outlook on the commercial aftermarket continues to improve. Flight hours for Air Transport and Regional are expected to grow to approximately 4.5% in 2015 slightly above 2014. And on the business jet side, we expected flight hours for large cabin aircraft will continue to grow in 2015, up mid-single digit, reflecting continued healthy demand. We anticipate that the good growth we saw in R&O this quarter will continue in Q3 and Q4, while sales of BGA’s – spares will also improve, in part driven by the RMU portfolio. So overall, we expect a modest acceleration in the second-half of the year for Aerospace – Commercial Aerospace that is. In Defense & Space, we’re seeing strong international demand as defense budgets continue to grow. This is supported by the high single-digit core organic growth we experience in our international business in the second quarter. And our strong backlog, although still a modest headwind associated with lower governments funding levels, we expect the U.S. portion of the business to stabilize consistent with U.S. DoD budgets. Overall, we remain on track for low-single digit core organic growth for Defense & Space in 2015. On oil and gas, we actually are seeing a very robust level of proposal activity in both UOP and HPS. And in some pockets orders are expected to accelerate, such as in the UOP gas processing business, where we expect a reasonably strong third and fourth quarter for modular equipment offerings outside the U.S. But on the balance, we’re not expecting a broader recovery for UOP order rates in the near term. In Process Solutions, we anticipate continued growth in orders in the second-half in our solutions in software businesses and expected a good portion of the large process technology orders booked in the first-half will also convert to sales. Activity in the Middle East continue to be strong, while in other regions including China and Southeast Asia we anticipate a continued slowdown in order activity for Process Solutions. As for the rest of the Honeywell portfolio, Commercial OE, Transportation Systems, the Residential Businesses in ACS, and Advanced Materials, we’re expecting continued good growth in the second-half. Our installed base in Commercial OE continues to grow with good wins on the right platforms. Global penetration of turbo technology particularly for gas engines will continue and our track record of flawless launches in TS remains a key differentiator. On the residential side, we expect growth to continue as we accelerate investments in the connected home space and build on our strong position. And in Advanced Materials customer demand for our low global warming suite of products is increasing and we are encouraged by the continued adoption of Solstice on a global basis. I’m turning to our full year guidance on Page 11. As Dave mentioned, based on our strong first-half performance, we’re raising the low-end of the full year EPS guidance range with a new range of $6.05 to $6.15. Everything else is pretty much intact as we head into second-half of 2015. We’ve demonstrated our ability to perform in a challenging environment. We’re highly confident we can do the same again this year. Full year sales expectations remain in the range of $39 billion to $39.6 billion, up approximately 3% on a core organic basis. There are some puts and takes among the businesses, but overall remain on track to the full year guidance we provided in April. On the segment margin, we’ve increased our full-year guidance by 10 basis points on the low-end, as our deployment of HOS Gold continues to drive a better more efficient operating system both in our plants and in our back-office. We now expect segment margins of 18.4% to 18.6%, that’s up 140 basis points to 160 basis points versus last year excluding the impact of the fourth quarter $184 million Aerospace OEM incentives. On EPS, the new guidance range results in 9% to 11% increase from 2014. Again, we’re planning for 26.5% tax rate in third quarter, with fourth quarter tax rate a bit lower to get to our full year planning assumption of 26.5%. Finally, we continue to expect free cash flow in the range of $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion, up 8% to 11% from 2014 even with CapEx investments rising to roughly twice that of depreciation. Each of the businesses remains focused on driving further working capital improvement in the second-half. So overall, we’re forecasting another very strong year, solid organic sales growth and strong execution that yield excellent segment margin and free cash flow outcomes, and another year of double-digit EPS growth which would mark our sixth consecutive year of having done so. Let’s turn to Slide 12, and in summary – for the summary, we had a solid first-half and with second quarter performance again at the high-end of our expectation, adding to our strong performance track record and creating momentum for the rest of the year. The uncertainty in the macro-environment is not new for us. We have and will continue to plan conservatively. We’ll continue to focus on executing sustainable productivity actions, including delivering on strong restructuring pipeline we’ve already funded. Innovation and new product introductions remain a key priority, as well as the investments we’re making to further penetrate high-growth regions and expand capacity. We’re in the process, as Dave mentioned, of planning for the long-term including 2016 and beyond. And our management team is focused on execution. We feel confident that with our balanced portfolio mix, alignment to favorable macro trends and focused cost disciplines, we’ll continue to outperform. So with that, let’s move to Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Okay. Operator?
Operator:
Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] We’ll pause for just a moment to give everybody the opportunity to signal. Okay. And we will take our first question from Scott Davis from Barclays.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning, guys.
David Cote:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Davis:
Hey, I’m going to say the usual congratulatory language, Dave, you’ve…
David Cote:
Well, thank you. It’s still nice to hear it, Scott.
Scott Davis:
Yes, I know it. Well, it’s good…
David Cote:
I know it kills you too.
Scott Davis:
It does. It does. Anyway, Dave, help us, I was going to ask about capital allocation, but I think that’d be a wasteful question at this point. Well, what are you seeing in the world, Dave? And the reason why I asked that question is, last quarter you had 2% core growth, I think it was this quarter 3% core growth, next quarter you’re kind of guiding to 3% to 4%. So you’ve been sequentially improving or at least talking about sequential improvement. But the world seems like it is almost going the other direction that sequentially and maybe degrading. Are you not seeing that or kind of help us understand how the macro lines up with the guidance?
David Cote:
Well, I wouldn't say, we’re seeing a boomlet and that’s not what we try to convey, but all in all, I think starting off with what was generally a slow first quarter for everyone when it came to sales growth, things have in my view improved a bit since that time. And I’d say a lot of this is coming more under what we are able to control and what we are able to do, and we’re seeing better performances in our businesses being able to take advantage of the growth trends that do exist. I would also say Scott, we benefit some from this diversity of opportunity that you hear me talk about. So that, yeah, okay, we've got some oil and gas exposure, but we we’re able to manage that, and it doesn’t have such a deleterious effect on our performance that we can’t manage above it. So I’d say it’s more a combination of things and saying that it’s slightly better than it was, but it’s still not a boomlet. Tom, I don’t know if there’s anything you want to add there.
Tom Szlosek:
No, I would agree with that. The only piece of color to maybe provide is that the, when you look at the month sequentially, April was definitely the lowest from a growth perspective, up slightly where – whereas the momentum picked up in May and June, and got us to that 3%.
Scott Davis:
Okay, that’s helpful. Guys, how do you think about the interplay between growth and margin? And what I mean is I mean, you’ve been crushing in on margins, core growth has really been in pretty much in line with the group now for most of the last couple of years, give or take a point. Is there – are there conversations you have internally around that going after margin might be hurting price in some – I’m sorry, might be hurting growth to some extent, or is that just not related at all?
David Cote:
Well, the two are interconnected, but I look at it differently. And if you go back to the beginning of my tenure here, I’ve always said growth and productivity go together that as you grow, you become more productive, because you have more volume leverage, you’re able to leverage your fixed cost better. By the same token the more productive you become, the more money that gives you to reinvest in the thing you’d like to do. And as you know, I’ve always been big on this concept of seed planting. And that was pretty costly in the early years, because we pretty much had an empty pipeline on everything whether it was high-growth regions, new products, new strategies or technologies, we really had to fill the pipeline, so margin expansion was a little more muted back then, because we had to fill the pipeline on everything, and it took us five or six years to do, which unfortunately took us right into the recession when, yes, we were getting benefiting from some of that, but it was just a hell of a lot less visible. Well, now that we’re able to get some of the sales growth that we do, we’re much better we’re able to have get that sales leverage as minimal as it might seem in today’s environment, we’re still able to get leverage from that. And we’re able to, I’d say finally, start seeing the benefits of HOS and some of our other initiatives on the gross margin side. And that’s where we’re seeing the real leverage here. The two go together and I can promise you we’re certainly not under investing whether you look at R&D or CapEx, or new product programs or commitment to Huey is certainly not a case under investment, because we want to make sure we make not just this quarter, but this same quarter three years from now and six years from now.
Scott Davis:
Makes sense, the track record is there. So thanks, guys, and good luck, and have a great rest of summer.
David Cote:
Yes, thanks. You too.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs and Company.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, guys. Nice quarter.
David Cote:
Hey, Joe, thanks.
Tom Szlosek:
Good morning, Joe.
David Cote:
It’s nice to hear, it stated with no reluctance at all, Joe. Thank you. I’d like to go ahead.
Joe Ritchie:
Yes, we differ in that way.
Tom Szlosek:
Just that way.
Joe Ritchie:
The first question I have is really around China, and you guys seem to still be doing incredibly well there growing at double-digit, and you’ve had some of your European peers come out and talk about the credit issues recently and peers are starting to intensify a little bit more around the region. I’m just wondering what you’re seeing specifically in a region whether trends deteriorated at all during the quarter?
Tom Szlosek:
Joe, good, I’ll take that one, Dave. The – yes, China was a very good story for us in most of the pockets. I mean, ACS as we said was near double-digit. Really the changes that we’ve made to connect all of those businesses in China, and get to Tier 2, Tier 3 cities and make investments to help all the businesses in portfolio, running it as one portfolio, really having a huge impact. And, in fact, we expect that to continue. We expect very strong growth rates in Q3 and Q4. In fact, for China, some of our orders are actually – we use sales as a surrogate for orders. But in some cases we actually do have the orders and what we’re seeing really gives us good encouragement for the rest of the year in ACS. Aero was also strong. As you know, it’s mostly in spares and R&O business there in China for us right now, up mid single-digits and we do expect that to continue. TS is a little bit smaller. The commercial vehicles segment in TS was challenged. So we were down in China for Transportation Systems. And then when you look at PMT, some challenges, particularly with cyclicality in UOP, the cat shipments are quite lumpy, can be lumpy from year-over-year. In Q2, we had significant cat sales, so tough quarter from that perspective but we see that improving as we go forward into Q3. So I think all of the businesses are expected to continue to grow and improve from Q2 to Q3, so we’re encouraged by what’s going on.
David Cote:
So if I could add to that, Joe, you’d have to say, overall, clearly the Chinese economy is straining [ph] a bit more than it has in the past. But that being said, it’s still pretty good and we see the oil and gas side, Tom’s point, but on balance between the growth that does exist there, plus our own strength as we develop more China-based products, I think puts us in a pretty good spot.
Joe Ritchie:
That’s helpful, guys. I guess, maybe following up on oil and gas, and specifically the margins this quarter, they were pretty phenomenal. And I’m just wondering if you can help parse out, the 330 basis points, you can clearly still expect oil and gas margins to continue to be good in 3Q, despite a deteriorating backdrop. And so just help us get a little bit more color into that?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. As you know – thanks for pointing that out, Joe. PMT margins were up to 21.3% with their 18% last year, so really nice 330 basis points. We had great contributions from – some volume in Advanced Materials that we talked about, very good productivity, strong cost controls, lower indirect expenses, but also at the same time, as Dave said, continuing the investments. So productivity was definitely a big driver. We’re also seeing good results in terms of the pricing. That seems to be holding up well. And as I said, there are some things that have driven that down a little bit. The catalyst comps year-over-year, little bit of a tougher story. And then, the overall volume declines that we mentioned in UOP and HPS will drag. So to summarize all of that, it’s a good commercial excellence, good performance on the commercial side, tough from a volume perspective, but really nice work on productivity.
Joe Ritchie:
All right. Great, thanks, guys, will get back in queue.
David Cote:
Thanks.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from Nigel Coe from Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe:
All right, Dave, a very enthusiastic great quarter.
David Cote:
Thank you. I liked your appreciation.
Nigel Coe:
Could you feel that coming through?
David Cote:
I liked it.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. So, obviously, this full year plan pretty much intact, little bit high at the low-end – on the margin line. Just reading through the commentary, it feels like Commercial Aerospace is a little bit better in the plan; perhaps, PMT a little bit weaker. Is that a fair comment to pass it on?
David Cote:
Yes, it is. I don’t know that – I guess PMT might be a little weaker than what we thought because oil and gas had a slightly bigger impact than we thought at the beginning of the year, but still pretty much within the forecast. And I’m pretty sure – I think all three segments beat their sales numbers based on what we had committed anyway.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, for the quarter.
David Cote:
Yes.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. So pretty much – the mix is pretty much as you expected, okay.
David Cote:
Yes.
Nigel Coe:
That’s great. Then just switching to the Solstice backlog, $3.2 billion, that’s obviously a very impressive number given the size of that business right now. Do you have any – can you give us any sense on how that backlog is aging and how much of that backlog converts for the next couple of years?
David Cote:
Most of it is all forward. We’re not going to age the backlog, but I would say, it’s going to be a good contributor to us over the next two or three years, especially as you think about that PMT inflection that we talk about, it’s going to be driven by the UOP MTO stuff and the Fluorines capacity, both of which we’re investing in today.
Nigel Coe:
Yes, okay. And then just the final one, I think Tom you mentioned 3Q to TS up low single-digits, and I think the expectation is that European volumes might pickup in 3Q. So I’m wondering, number one, do you see that coming through in Europe? And then secondly, are we seeing a big offset from the commercial weakness there?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, I think in the second quarter, TS in Europe was, you’re right was pretty strong from an organic basis in the mid single-digits, as we said in line with overall TS, and we see that continuing for the third quarter. I mean, the – it’s a mix of some platforms expiring and new platforms coming on, and there are some offsets that that also come into play. The commercial vehicles overall for both in China and the U.S. as we talked about has been kind of one of the challenges we’re dealing with. But overall, Europe should be up mid single-digits or even higher for us in the third quarter for Transportation Systems.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, that’s great. I’ll leave it there. Thanks a lot, guys.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Steven Winoker from Bernstein.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks, and good morning all.
David Cote:
Hi.
Steven Winoker:
Hey, Dave, the only thing I can say is that the share price is thanks enough. So I’ll leave it there.
David Cote:
Well, we want to keep everybody comfortable, Steve.
Steven Winoker:
It’s important Dave, we need these results. So let me just ask quickly on the quarter for Q3 guidance. It looks like, it’s up, I guess, 5% year-on-year, which implies the fourth quarter has got to be up like 15%. Maybe talk about the cadence there, and particularly within aerospace as you’ve got lower margin expansion on higher core growth than you did before. And is that just, even though, that’s a strong 80 basis points to 100 basis points number, is that just makes offset or what are the headwinds there?
David Cote:
Well, first of all, I don’t think the b-percents [ph] are quite as dramatic as you indicated. But I’ll turn it over to Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, I mean, the – we will have a strong – very strong fourth quarter. There are some nice inflections coming in PMT. As an example, we have, again, there’s some lumpiness in the gas business. But we think that in PMT, we’re going to see some nice growth coming through in those businesses in the fourth quarter. And overall the – it is our highest quarter from a volume perspective. So there’s – the base is really driven by what we see the visibility that we have to the sales pipeline.
Steven Winoker:
And in the margin – the margins in Aero even though it’s 80 basis points to 100 basis points, again, the core growth is looking strong and you did more before, is that, what are the headwinds there?
Tom Szlosek:
Say it again, Steve?
Steven Winoker:
Just in Aerospace, what are the headwinds you are not putting up even higher aerospace margins in Q3?
Tom Szlosek:
Well, we get more comparability on from a FX perspective and, of course, Friction Materials is in that – is in the business as well, so that the two of those temper the significance of the margin increase. So if you go back to that page, I think it was page five in our slide, you see the big impact from those three factors. Those tend to subside as we get further into the year, particularly the FX and the Friction Materials.
David Cote:
Friction Materials is mid-July last year.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, but operationally, I mean, all the factors we talk about from an operational perspective, still should hold in pretty firm.
Steven Winoker:
And how is the cash flow progress in aero? Is that improving in, as you see that improving, Dave, you’ve talked about a lot of opportunity there going forward?
David Cote:
We’ll, the cash flow is still good. They just need to do a significantly better job on inventory than they have in the past…
Steven Winoker:
Yes, okay. Okay. All right, and maybe…
David Cote:
…which would be upside.
Steven Winoker:
And maybe just lastly on gross margin just a little bit bigger picture question. So this is the highest Q2 gross margin we’re obviously seeing in very, very, very long time. So as you see that crossing 30% now, Dave, from a pricing and business model perspective, you think it can continue with that same pace, you think it can accelerate, decelerate, how are you thinking about that?
David Cote:
Oh, yeah, I think this is going to be an ongoing phenomenon for us. I’m not going to commit what it’s going to get to at some point. But, certainly, it’s going to be an important factor as we continue to grow our overall operating income percentage.
Steven Winoker:
Right. Okay. All right, thanks.
David Cote:
See you, Steve.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning.
David Cote:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Dave, the 40th anniversary, Honeywell Users Group, did you guys print up some shirts like, give me a hug or something like that you could send around?
David Cote:
Only for you, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Okay. I’ll be checking my mailbox. Hey, just a couple of things. Actually, first, thinking about business jet and strictly large cabin, there’s some crack showing up in what some of the OEs are saying, pressure from wealthy developing countries and the like, sounds like you’re pretty constructive on the back-half. But do you see any reduction in the order books going forward there?
David Cote:
Not for us. I would say, while they may be seeing some softness which will get reflected for us also. It’s going to be more than offset by all the gains we’ve had. So…
Tom Szlosek:
Both on the equipment side and on R&O, I mean, strong R&O performance as well in the BGA. And it looks like that will hold up for the rest of the year.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Okay. And then on gas processing getting firmer, is there – I guess, you pointed to emerging markets. Is there something really specific driving that? Is there some share gains or what’s actually the driver behind that?
David Cote:
Well, if you go back to the premise of the Thomas Russell acquisition that we did then, it was primarily a U.S. based business. We said at the time that our intent was to grow it more internationally, which it takes some time to make happen, but you’re starting to see the benefit of a lot of that from all the seed planting that we did over the last two or three years to make that happen. And that’s mostly the effects you’re getting.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then, finally, maybe for Tom, I was just wondering on the hedges. Have you done anything new there, rolled it forward or are we kind of making the bet here, kind of this whole euro trade has played itself out and we’re going to – you’re going to let things roll-off? What’s the thought process there?
Tom Szlosek:
Well, we’re not betting first of all, but we – what we told you at the end of the first quarter, we pretty much – it’s pretty much consistent with where we are right now. So you know the story on 2015, pretty much fully hedged for the rest of the year. 2016, we got the euro hedged probably about three-quarters of the exposure, and some selective hedging in some of the other currencies. We keep our eye on it. We talk about it every week and we’re all closely interested in seeing how that plays out.
Jeffrey Sprague:
What’s the exchange rate on the hedge for 2016?
Tom Szlosek:
As we said, for the euro it’s $1.10.
Jeffrey Sprague:
$1.10, okay, thank you very much.
David Cote:
See you, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thanks.
Operator:
We will now take a question from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.
Stephen Tusa:
Hi, good morning.
David Cote:
Hi, Steve.
Stephen Tusa:
Congratulations on the use of the word deleterious. It’s a bit more, it sounds more like Harvard than UNH, but so – it’s a good work on that.
David Cote:
You have no idea of what UNH is capable of, Steve.
Stephen Tusa:
On PMT, the UOP business, Thomas Russell, how bad was it in the quarter? And do you think that there is enough out there that you can confidently say that you may be able to kind of fill this domestic hole and actually hold the business flat next year?
David Cote:
We’re still in the process of planning everything for 2016, but overall, I think Tom alluded to this earlier, is that we’ve got pretty good quote activity going in both, oil and gas, UOP, and process controls. So we’d like to think, now, that’s – quote activity is not synonyms with an order. But it’s certainly a nice, hopefully, leading indicator of where things could go. That being said, that’s too early to declare victory.
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, I mean, sequentially we’re seeing improvement from first quarter, second quarter, and third quarter expectations on orders in the gas business, so – and there’s is a reasonable degree of visibility to some of the revenues that we expect to see in the second-half. So, as Dave said, we’re watching it closely, but there are some positive signs for that business.
Stephen Tusa:
Is there another part of PMT? Are there benefits from what’s going on in downstream margins globally? Or – it seems like a lot of this stuff is much more UOP-specific, so little bit tougher to call, by looking at just the macro. I mean, is that the right way to think about it? And, I guess, are you still in a growth mode again for UOP in 2016? I know you guys talked about that last quarter that you expected to grow in the 2016.
David Cote:
I guess, a couple of things that I mention is, one of the things we’ve said in the past is that you have to kind of break out that oil cycle between the exploration side that’s more price driven and the refining petrochemical side that’s going to be more driven by economic activity. And you’re seeing a bit of a drag on that second part, because of how people have reacted to the first part. But, overall, their margins as you know look pretty good. And we think over time that investment begins. When it comes to UOP, they still got the capacity expansion that’s coming and that stuff, we got to complete that plant on time, because we need to ship, and the projects are already being built. So I certainly feel more than okay about it.
Stephen Tusa:
And you still pretty – you still feel pretty confident with the fluorine stuff coming on with that revenue – incremental revenue chart you guys put up in March with I think it was like $1 billion in incremental revenue in 2017. Even with the oil and gas macro-headwinds out there that you are – there is kind of no changes to that view.
David Cote:
Yes.
Tom Szlosek:
Even better, I mean.
Stephen Tusa:
Even better with the Fluorine Products [indiscernible]. And then one last question, any degree of evolution at all on the balance sheet? I mean, you guys are clearly executing well. So you don’t necessarily need to – there is really not a need for significant urgency around the balance sheet, but any of these properties that you covered loosening up at all with what’s clearly a more – a tougher micro-environment out there or no change?
David Cote:
Well, I would have to say, the strategy hasn’t changed. And like I’ve said with the retail store, you never know when these things are going to hit. You never know when the customer is going to walk in. So, we’re armed and ready.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay, but no big buyback near term?
David Cote:
Strategy, still the same.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. Thanks a lot guys.
Operator:
And we’ll now take a question from Howard Rubel from Jefferies.
Howard Rubel:
Thank you very much. You called – Tom, you called this out a little bit, but maybe you could elaborate a bit. SG&A was down substantially, I think it fell from 13.4% to 12.7%. Can you elaborate on some of the causes, some of it maybe FX, but a bunch of it is probably process changes?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. I think the, Steve, when you – the percentage that you’re mentioning…
Howard Rubel:
Howard.
Tom Szlosek:
Oh, sorry, Howard.
Howard Rubel:
I do not want to get confused. I do not want to get confused with Steve, please.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. I’m sorry about that, Howard. So I think when you look at the percentage you’re talking about, since the FX is affecting sales more than it is the cost numbers, you do get a little bit of a margin impact, but for us the initiatives that we’ve got going on, the continued work that we’re doing in functional transformation, the continued work that we’re doing in managing the indirect cost of those groups and function spend, the e-auction process that we’re using. All the initiatives are really having a solid impact and they’re coming through, so there is not one thing in there, just continued sustained momentum that we got.
Howard Rubel:
And then, you talked a lot about one of the things that makes a difference at Honeywell has been new products. And we can see it in Fluorines and we can see it in a few other places. Is there – do you have a metric that you look at in terms of new sales, new product sales as a comparison to a year ago?
David Cote:
Actually, Howard, I’ve always tried to stay away from that, because if you want a metric that can be easily gained internally and externally that’s it. I go more by are we growing faster than our competition. And when I see things like the Dassault cockpit, and what we’re able to do with fluorines, and what ACS has coming, and Huey bases that everybody is using for it; then I know it is happening.
Howard Rubel:
I hear you. And then if I could just go back…
David Cote:
In another words, if you said, jeez, we want to see 50% of your sales coming from products introduced in the last three years. My guess is every company can generate that metric for you, regardless of how they’re performing.
Howard Rubel:
You have a fair point. And then the last thing, I think, a number of people before me have asked the same question in another way. It seems if in PMT the oil and gas expectations that had been laid out earlier have shifted to the right. Have you gone back in and examined exactly why or even have you kind of added some belt and suspenders to the process to make sure that, in fact, the second-half that that you’re looking for is going to play out the way you’d like?
David Cote:
We’re not counting on a huge second-half on oil and gas, it’s kind of static, maybe a little bit better, but we’re not counting on anything big.
Tom Szlosek:
I think, the – I think you’ll see an uptick in orders knock on wood for gas we’ve said, as well as for catalyst, but on balance, I don’t think, we’re expecting a major material change right now.
Howard Rubel:
All right. Thank you.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes.
Operator:
We’ll now take a question from Christopher Glynn from Oppenheimer.
Christopher Glynn:
Thanks. Good morning.
David Cote:
Hey, Chris.
Christopher Glynn:
Hey, Dave. Hey, Tom. So you talked about the inflections at aero…
David Cote:
Hello, Chris.
Christopher Glynn:
Yes, hello.
David Cote:
A question for you first. How is the ankle?
Christopher Glynn:
Oh, thanks, slow, but better than ski season.
David Cote:
Well, the rumor we heard is that you drank a six-pack and tried to jump into a dinghy, is that true?
Christopher Glynn:
I think it was a 12-pack but, so…
David Cote:
Just now you know we have fielders out there too.
Christopher Glynn:
I guess, you do. Now, that was a day with the kids, that was a clean day. So like all of them. So with ACS, you talked about the inflections of PMT and Aviation. So with ACS, if we look at a few more years where the macro remains in this way, can HUE and VPD actually drive some acceleration there, or is it 3% to 4% in this environment kind of the reflection of that?
David Cote:
I would say, we’re counting on – 3% to 4% is kind of like a nice steady grower in an industry, that’s going to be growing slightly. I do think to your point that kind of the Huey based onslot [ph] that they’re going to be showing over the next few years will make a difference, and there’s a potential for to be better than that. Tough to predict at this point, but I’m encouraged by what I see out of the ACS guys.
Christopher Glynn:
Okay. And used the word boomlet, I’ll complement you on that on. If you were to see a boomlet, what are – is an area or two where that could be. I mean, do you have drivers in there for commercial aftermarket or just as an example?
David Cote:
Well, I guess I got to be careful that Steve doesn’t put deleterious boomlet together. But at the end of the day, it’s the way I would kind of still describe it. And on the commercial side, I think it’s doing slightly better for us. And you’ll start to see an inflection as we go out into the future, because we’re finally going to see the benefits of all the wins and that starts building our installed base as Tom pointed out on the engine side, which all proves good for us. Tom, anything you want to add there?
Tom Szlosek:
No.
Christopher Glynn:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, we will take our last questions from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for fitting me in. Hey, Dave, I thought at some point you would have worked in a free-Brady [ph] into your remarks.
David Cote:
And I was expecting you to talk about [Technical Difficulty], Deane, so, I guess, we both were disappointed.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, Dave’s spirit is still deflated on that one.
Deane Dray:
Understood.
David Cote:
Bad, very bad.
Deane Dray:
One of the bullish comments that you had was on non-res. So just may be expand a bit on the dynamics in the market, it’s kind of the data points, it’s just part of the boomlet that you would expect to see in the second-half?
David Cote:
Yes, I’d say, it continues to get better as we’ve talked about in the past. And I don’t think you’re ever going to see a boom in non-res construction, largely, because there was never a real crash. It was kind of that slow-in, slow-out kind of thing that we talked about with the recession. I think as we’re going to continue to see on the residential side, my guess is, you’re going to continue to see that do better, because rents have been going up and that will spur more activity. But I think for non-res, that’s the right way to think about it, it’s kind of slow and steady.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. That’s where we’ve seen our best growth in ACS, particularly on the industrial side, industrial piece of the non-res, but commercial buildings as well, trends are very good, the products that we sell into there and ECC, fire and safety or security, all of them are doing well.
Deane Dray:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to today’s moderator for the additional or closing remarks.
Mark Macaluso:
Thank you. Now, I would like to turn the call back to Dave for some closing comments.
David Cote:
Well, it certainly feels good to give all of our investors such good news as you look forward to your summer holidays. We’ve got a track record of outperforming our peers and we intend to continue that outperformance. We want all of investors to know that they can enjoy this summer, because they have their money invested in Honeywell. So from all of us here in Honeywell, have a fun and relaxing summer. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s conference. We do appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful rest of your day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso – VP, IR David M. Cote – Chairman and CEO Tom Szlosek – SVP and CFO
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Steven Winoker - Bernstein Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley Howard Rubel - Jefferies Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Honeywell’s First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I'd now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thank you, Michael. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s first quarter 2015 earnings conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote, Senior Vice President and CFO, Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the first quarter and share with you our guidance for the second quarter and full year of 2015. Finally as always we'll leave time for your questions at the end. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote.
David M. Cote:
Good morning, everyone. As I'm sure you've seen by now Honeywell delivered another quarter of double-digit earnings growth to kick off 2015 driven by our diverse portfolio and effective execution what continues to be a challenging macro environment. Our earnings per share of $1.41 increased 10% year-over-year coming in at the high end of our guidance range. The macro environment in the first quarter wasn't easy with headwinds from extreme weather, port shutdowns, decline in oil and gas investments and a strengthening US dollar. Sales in the quarter of $9.2 billion, while up to 2% on a core organic basis were down 5% reported. Our performance was driven by decent organic growth and strong sales conversion with segment margins expanding 220 basis points to 18.7%. And as you'll hear from Tom a bit later, a large portion of the margin expansion came from improving gross margins, something a bit different than the past. It results from our focus on HOS both direction and indirect material and new products. Our key process initiatives are driving meaningful results throughout the portfolio. 140 basis points of the segment margin rate improvement was driven by commercial excellence and productivity. The rest of the improvement comes from smart decisions we've made about the portfolio. An important enabler of the productivity continues to be the savings we're seeing from previously funded restructuring actions. We're being proactive about keeping that pipeline full which we think is critical to supporting our continued margin expansion in 2016 and beyond. However, while managing our costs is important, we're also focused on supporting sales growth by investing in capacity expansion, new products and technologies, and resources in high growth regions. As a result of that strong first quarter performance and our confidence in the remainder of the year, we are raising the low end of our full year guidance by a nickel to a new range of $6 to $6.15 or up 8% to 11% versus the prior year. As we've been saying since December, we want to ensure we're remaining balanced in our planning for 2015 while continuing our seed planting investments for the future. In the quarter we proactively funded about $40 million of restructuring, building on a healthy pipeline of new projects, and we've continued our transactional and translational hedging into 2016. The euro is our biggest exposure. In 2015 we've hedged approximately 85% of our euro P&L exposure in an average rate of about $1.24. For 2016 we have again hedged approximately 85% of our euro P&L exposure at a plan rate of $1.10. In the current environment we believe the certainty this provides is prudent and generates the time needed to offset the impact in future years. We also continue seed planting for exciting new HUE based products, technologies and process improvements that will help us continue to win in the marketplace. On HOS Gold we are continuing to invest across our gold enterprises to create units that grow faster and are more profitable than our competitors. We want to marry big company cost efficiency, which is real if it’s done correctly and technical and functional excellence with small company speed and customer responsiveness accomplishing two seemingly conflicting things at the same time. Each HOS gold unit is identifying breakthrough strategies and moves into smart new areas and adjacencies. In early May we'll be kicking off our 2015 technology symposium, a forum that brings together approximately 400 Honeywell technology, marketing and management representatives from all of the businesses. This annual event which started about 10 years ago provides opportunities for ongoing collaboration and idea generation, and is focused on driving breakthrough innovations supported by differentiated processes and technologies, all of which helps enhance our great positions in good industries. Process solutions open the Honeywell industrial cyber security lab in Duluth Georgia to advance development and testing of new technologies and software to defend industrial facilities and operations like refineries and manufacturing plants from cyber attacks. We also recently inaugurated three new research and development labs at the Honeywell center of excellence in Brno, Czech Republic and plan to open another five labs within a months as part of a $10 million investment in the region to support both aerospace and ACS. In March we closed the acquisition of Datamax-O’Neil, a global manufacturer of fixed and mobile printers. Datamax-O’Neil portfolio of solutions expand Honeywell's ability to deliver enhance work flow performance and the team is very excited about this acquisition which builds on existing printing capabilities acquired with Intermec. Scanning and mobility continues to execute very well, delivering another quarter of double-digit core organic sales growth in the first quarter driven primarily by volume from key wins, most recently the US Postal Service deal signed last year. We also continue to be excited about the flooring products portfolio where we saw particular strength, up double-digits on a core organic basis driven by the ramp up of our Solstice low global warming suite of products. We've seen increasing demand for these products, where we now have a lifetime value of signed agreements of about $2.6 billion and another $800 million under negotiation. As we look ahead, we're cautious overall on the macro environment like I've been for five years. While we continue to expect that the benefit of lower oil prices will eventually play through in the US and in oil importing nations, this is really yet to be seen. There was weakness in January across the portfolio that we weren't able to fully recover from, but we did see good signs of improvement as the quarter progressed. GDP growth rates globally are weaker than most had expected for the first quarter. Now, we think weather had some impact early in the quarter in the US, but the slowdown was not unique to the US. With all that said, the majority of our businesses exited the quarter with momentum following more robust core organic growth rates in both February and March. Nevertheless, we're going to continue to plan conservatively to navigate the current headwinds, including oil and gas and as always we're not counting on a pickup in the global economy. We are well positioned to continue performing in this environment. Our portfolio is aligned to favorable macro trends and provides significant runway to grow. We have great positions in good industries. We're investing to grow faster than the markets we serve, and we'll stay the course on seed planting and continuous improvement initiatives. We're going to stay flexible and follow the play book you've come to expect from us, so that we can deliver on this year, next year, and beyond. So with that, I'll turn it over to Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks, Dave. And good morning. I'm now on slide 4 which shows the first quarter results, sales of $9.2 billion, were up 2% on a core organic basis, but decreased 5% on a reported basis. The absence of friction materials which you'll recall was still in the portfolio for the first half of 2014, further strengthening of the US dollar and raw materials pricing in resins and chemicals were headwinds driving the negative reported growth this quarter. However, considering the slow start that we got off to in January, we were actually 8% down in January versus 2014 on a core organic basis. So even given that slow start, we feel pretty good about the Q1 core organic growth. Shipment timing in aerospace, order delays and PMT and unplanned plant outages in resins and chemicals prevented us from fully meeting our sales expectations, but as you'll see later we expect the growth rate to improve as the year progresses. An important note, the 2% core organic sales growth excludes FX, M&A and now the raw material pricing impact in resins and chemicals. Selling prices in resins and chemicals include an element of raw material pass through, most notably benzene, which is highly correlated to the price of oil. While the pricing model protects profit dollars, sales can be volatile, so we've modified the definition here to provide further insight into the underlying volume growth of our businesses. Segment profit increased 8% with segment margin expanding 220 basis points. The most impressive part about the segment margin performance is that most of the improvement came through gross margin rates. HOS Gold is working across Honeywell, from our engineering labs to our factories and supply chains, to our selling and marketing organizations and even to our back office. Our deployment of Honeywell user experience in product development is yielding better products that our customers are willing to pay for. Our supply chains are becoming even more lean and there is a strong collaboration between our engineers, sourcing organization and supply chain to drive down our material costs. Our focus on commercial excellence is yielding more focused sales teams and smarter pricing decisions. Operating costs are in check with SG&A also contributing to the segment margin rate improvement. Meanwhile, we continue to devote significant resources to the development of new products and the enhancement of existing ones. As we said in March, HOS Gold is a game changer and will be a differentiator for us as it was in this first quarter. We'll provide some additional color on the Q1 margin expansion in a moment. The items below segment profit came in as we expected. We had an increased year-over-year and pension income which was completely offset by restructuring of approximately $40 million. Note, in the prior period operating margin included the restructuring and other charges from the BE Arrow [ph] gain deployment, but excluded the gain itself. So operating margins expanded 340 basis points in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the 220 basis points expansion in segment margin. Earnings per share was up – earnings per share was $1.41, up 10% year-over-year and at the high end of our guidance range. We once again achieved double-digits earnings growth driven largely by increases in segment profit. Year-over-year share count was flat, so a good start on the P&L despite the environment. Finally, free cash flow in the quarter of 256 million came in down $240 million from 2014, driven primarily by timing, including the payment of the fourth quarter 2014 OEM incentives, higher cash taxes, and higher working capital requirements, particularly in aerospace. The first quarter has historically proven to be our lowest from a cash perspective and we remain on track to our full year guidance of $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion of free cash flow. We ended the quarter at approximately $1.3 billion negative net cash position, and as we highlighted in March, we expect to be in a positive net cash position approximating $1 billion to $2 billion by year end assuming no significant M&A. Overall we generated strong results in a relatively slow growth environment. I'm now on slide 5. I talked previously about the nature of our 220 basis point segment margin improvement. This slide provides some additional color on the specific drivers of that improvement. The first category is the core organic or operational drivers which generate 140 of the 220 basis point improvement. We're often asked to quantify the impact of HOS Gold. This first category is highly correlated to it. We can't always commit to triple digit margin expansion from HOS Gold, but you can see that the components touch all critical facets of our businesses. We're benefiting from commercial excellence, most prominently in aerospace, as well as significant productivity improvement and volume leverage across the portfolio. New product introductions and further penetration in high growth regions, particularly at ACS, are also part of it. We're also seeing savings from previously funded restructuring actions. Additionally as we indicated, we are able to proactively fund another $40 million of restructuring in the first quarter, improve our overall cost position, and drive further margin expansion going forward. The remaining three categories on this slide individually look pedestrian, but collectively reflect the benefits that our shareholders are realizing from the strategic decisions we have made and executed on. First, you can see the favorable margin impact from the friction materials divestiture, which we closed in July of 2014. This is a permanent improvement in our margin rate from exiting a business that did not meet our portfolio standards. You can expect to see additional year-over-year favorability in the second quarter from this divestiture and we are always assessing our portfolio to ensure all of our businesses continue to constitute great positions in good industries. Second, our hedging approach for foreign currency provided a big benefit. As you know, we made a decision last summer to expand our hedging approach from protecting our hundreds of individual P&Ls from foreign currency exposure, that is transactional exposure to one now where we are protecting the consolidated Honeywell enterprise, so that's transactional, plus translational exposure. The hedge strategy is in place to protect our operating results, but not necessarily at top line, thus the margin lift. Additionally, our merging markets footprint in our engineering organization, supply chain and back office also protect us from the strengthening US dollar. These strategies will be worth $0.12 to $0.13 to our shareholders in 2015 and help drive the margin improvement you see here. Third, in resins and chemicals, we have developed the lowest cost operating position in the world. A competitive position which allows us to run our plants at full capacity. Material costs are passed through to customers, so when raw materials –when raw [ph] market conditions are volatile like we're experiencing today, margin rates can be impacted, in this case favorably. When the material pass through and therefore sales is reduced, but margin remains the same. Without that low cost position our ability to compete for profitable business would be impaired as would the margin rates. Moving to slide 6 and the aerospace results, you can see here on the comparative sales stack bars, that we were highlighting the impacts of inorganic drivers. Namely for aerospace, foreign exchange headwinds and M&A, that is the friction materials divesture. We filed a similar convention on the subsequent pages for both ACS and PMT. Sales for the first quarter were up 1% on an organic basis, but down 6% reported, driven by the friction materials divestiture and the unfavorable impact of foreign currency movement, mostly in turbo. Segment margin was up 250 basis points driven by productivity net of inflation, commercial excellence and the favorable impacts from the friction divesture and foreign exchange. So overall great work by the aerospace team to drive robust margin expansion. From a sales perspective, commercial OE was up 1% on an organic basis. In air transport and regional we saw a continued benefit from higher OE build rates at Boeing, airbus and Embraer, partially offset by intentionally slower shipments to certain emerging market customers in order to manage temporary funding delays. In business general and aviation, there were lower than expected deliveries on certain platforms that are in transition, engine demand is robust, so we expect to see a pickup in growth in BGA in the second quarter. Commercial aircraft sales were up 1% on a core organic basis driven by strong growth in repair and overhaul activities, but partially offset by lower spare sales, particularly in China and Russia. We believe that this year represents a normal run rate for spare sales in China after a significant restocking by our airlines customers in 2014. Also similar to the OE side, we intentionally slowed spare shipments to certain emerging market customers as a risk management matter. Overall we anticipate continued growth in R&O and improvement in spares in the second quarter and into the second half. Defense and space sales were down 1% on a core organic basis. We had lower deliveries in the US due to timing, but still expect the core organic sales will be up for defense and space on balance for the rest of the year. Defense and space backlog increased high single digit year-over-year. We anticipate some ongoing softness in the US, but we're very encouraged by the continued double-digit growth of our international defense business, which continues to be a tailwind in defense and space. Finally, transportation system sales increased 5% on a core organic basis due to strong volume growth in light vehicle gas applications where we continue to see increased global penetration. The success we have seen in TS continued in this quarter, and we expect similar growth throughout 2015. On a reported basis, TS sales declined 23%, reflecting both the friction materials divestiture and foreign currency headwinds. So let's turn to ACS results on slide 7. ACS sales were up 3% on a core organic basis in the first quarter, excluding an approximate 6% headwind from foreign exchange. Across the ACS portfolio we saw weakness in January, as we mentioned at our Investor Day in March, followed by steady core organic growth in February and March. All of the ACS businesses are exiting the quarter with good momentum giving us confidence going into the second quarter. ESS sales were up 3% on a core organic basis in the first quarter driven by continued strength in our scanning and mobility, fire safety, and security businesses. Scanning and mobility delivered another quarter of double-digit core organic sales growth following the double-digit increase for the fourth quarter and full year of 2014. The business continues to perform well driven by volume from recent program wins such as the US Postal Service program that Dave mentioned. In addition, we continue to realize integration benefits from Intermec in the combination of the two businesses. As for the rest of ESS, growth continues to be driven by new product introductions and further penetration in high growth regions. In particular, China and India each were up close to 15% in the first quarter with strength across most of the ESS portfolio, and we expect this to continue into the second quarter. Building solutions and distribution sales were up 3% on a core organic basis in the first quarter with continued strength in America's fire and security distribution businesses and growth in building solutions. Within building solutions, we continue to see good growth in our higher margin service business and as was the case with ESS, sales in BSD improved in February, March following a slow start in January. ACS margins expanded 180 basis points in the quarter to 15.8%. The business continues to benefit from good conversion on higher volumes and significant productivity improvements net of inflation. While the business has been able to control costs and optimize internal processes, our investments for growth, particularly in new product development and in high growth regions continue as we have highlighted previously. In addition, we continue to realize incremental synergy benefits from the combination of Intermec with scanning mobility. We expect the margin expansion to continue, particularly as the team builds on a connected ACS initiative, which Alex talked about at our Investor Day in March. I'm now on slide 8, and before I review the PMT results, I'd like to provide an update on our oil and gas related businesses similar to what we shared in January. Our upstream portfolio which resides entirely in our process solutions business comprises controls, solutions and remote operations for deepwater offshore facilities. As we've said, this upstream exploration and production part of the value chain is a small portion of PMT and roughly 1% of Honeywell's sales. And here, despite a significant scale back in future capital spending plans by international oil companies and national oil companies, which have caused a good deal of volatility in our market, our backlogs have held up, and there have been no cancellations to date. In fact, we saw a double-digit increase in volume of large order project wins in our projects and automation solutions business in process solutions in the first quarter, with approximately one third of that increase residing in our upstream segment. But discretionary spend both CapEx and OpEx is being cut across the board in this segment, and we felt the impact of these actions at HPS in particular. We are seeing softness in our short cycle field instrumentation business tied to both project delay, as well as reductions to maintenance, repairs and operations budgets. Our orders in the second quarter will be challenged as a result, but we'll continue to leverage our strong cost productivity actions to offset any downturn in 2015. It’s also worth mentioning that 45% of HPS is not tied to oil and gas, which further highlights our relatively low exposure to the volatility upstream. Moving to midstream, roughly a third of the UOP business, so the gas processing piece and about a quarter of the HPS business, which comprises gas metering and transfer, safety and security and terminals, is considered midstream. So think of oil and gas recovery, upgrading, treating pipelines and storage. We saw tremendous growth in our gas processing sales in the first quarter, particularly in UOP Russell, which was up double-digits on a core organic basis. Our midstream business overall has been impacted by the steep reduction in the US gas and oil rig count, and we did see one cancellation of approximately $35 million in our gas processing business in the US in this quarter. Orders are expected to continue to be challenged across our midstream business, including in HPS where customers are delaying spending decisions and cutting discretionary spend and also delaying conversion of orders and backlog. However, we also anticipate that international gas processing projects for modular equipment and additional service sales to US customers will help to mitigate the softness in the US in 2015 and 2016. Finally, our downstream segment primarily includes petrochemical and refining, which comprises about two thirds of UOP, and that's mostly process technologies, equipment and catalysts and approximately 20% of HPS, which is process controls, field instruments, services and optimization. Here we're experiencing delays and reductions in countries that are net oil producers, like Russia, as refining and petrochemical project decisions are deferred. A notable exception is the Middle East where we – we've seen new wins and an active pipeline of new bids, particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia and we're encouraged by the expected growth in HPS and UOP in the region. Also two thirds of the aforementioned double-digit increase in orders growth in the projects and automations solutions business and HPS is in this down stream refining sector. As the infrastructure investments continue to ramp in the Middle East, we anticipate continued positive growth in 2015 and in 2016. In the oil importing countries, mainly China and India, the benefit of the lower cost oil imports is mostly being absorbed by the national government, and is not currently being invested in energy projects. However, we do see continued momentum in the catalyst first load and reload activity for methanol to olefin and Oleflex licenses in China and a similar positive level of activity in India, particularly in our short cycle businesses in HPS. We're continuing to see existing projects progress and none have been abandoned. However, the initiation of new projects has been extremely slow. Overall, however, we continue to believe that in the mid to long-term, the impact further downstream will be neutral to in some cases positive despite the delays we have seen thus far. Sales and parts of our resins and chemicals business continue to be negatively impacted by the market based pricing, whereby selling prices are closely tied to the market price of raw materials, most notably benzene which is highly correlated to the price of oil, as we've discussed since December, while lower raw material cost continue to be a headwind to the top line, the pricing model protects profit dollars even on those lower sales. We now expect this will approximate a $400 million headwind to our reported sales in 2015. In ACS, a small portion of our industrial safety businesses, the portable gas detection and safety products businesses participate in oil and gas related end markets. We have seen minor impacts due to the recent work force reductions, mainly in the upstream segment. While demand for our gas detection and safety products has slowed, we continue to expect lower oil prices to eventually create demand side favorability across the remainder of the ACS portfolio. In terms of operating expenses, we are seeing favorable cost trends across the portfolio, including in our freight, utilities and other supply chain costs, as well as in our other indirect spend. We expect this will continue to be a nice tailwind for us throughout 2015 and continue to look for ways to drive further productivity and cost savings across the portfolio. In terms of the second derivative impacts, we highlighted in December that we anticipate that the emerging airline profitability from lower oil prices could drive further activity with that customer segment. In addition, the lower prices at the pump, improvements in employment and overall positive consumer sentiment have driven greater demand for autos where we are benefiting from increased demand for turbocharger technologies. The impact to our short cycle business on the whole thus far has been neutral, but we expect an increase in demand across the portfolio as lower oil prices persist. On balance, the headwinds we are seeing in our oil and gas business will continue to present challenge in the near to mid term and we continue to plan conservatively to mitigate the impacts in this area. We do expect to eventually see some positive impacts from lower oil prices, which will benefit our short cycle businesses, particularly in ACS as the benefit makes its way further downstream to consumers. We are also encouraged by the benefit to our own cost structure which will continue to provide a nice tailwind in 2015 and 2016. I am moving to slide 9 for PMT first quarter results. PMT sales in the quarter of $2.3 billion were up 3% on a core organic basis and down 5% on a reported basis. The reported decline was driven by foreign exchange headwinds and the impact of lower oil prices on resins and chemicals, as we have spoken about before. Starting with the UOP, sales were up 9% on a core organic basis driven primarily by higher gas processing sales, particularly at UOP Russell. As a reminder, UOP grew 9% on a core organic basis in the first quarter of 2014 as well. So exceptional growth even against a difficult year-over-year comp. Orders were roughly flat in the quarter with strong growth in the product technologies and equipment business, offsetting declines in gas processing which are mostly timing related. As you know, we are in the midst of adding UOP capacity, particularly on the catalyst side which will help the business better service its backlog, which continues to hold firm. In process solutions, sales were below our expectations. Core organic sales down 3% and reported sales down 11%. Obviously foreign exchange headwinds impacted our reported sales. Orders overall were slightly down in the quarter as we experienced some order delays, particularly in March as we approach the quarter end. While we're not seeing order cancellations in HPS, some customers are delaying project startups, and in some cases future capital spending decisions. Still on balance, our projects business had a strong orders quarter, up strong double-digits, primarily driven by the Middle East where we see infrastructure investments continuing. Discretionary spend is under pressure, which primarily impacted our orders and sales growth in our field products business. Our service backlog is holding up well with low single digit sales growth, a reflection of our comprehensive offerings to our strong install base. Process solutions backlog increased high single digit year-over-year, which gives us confidence that the sales growth rates will eventually improve. Advanced material sales were up 2% on a core organic basis and decreased 12% reported, again primarily driven by foreign exchange headwinds and the impact of lower oil prices on resin and chemicals. In addition, we had unplanned outages in our resins and chemicals plants that had a negative impact on production volumes, and segment margin in the quarter. The rest of the advanced material saw positive core organic growth in the quarter, particularly in flooring products, which again grew double-digit as demand continues for Solstice products continues to grow. PMT margins were up 230 basis points to 21.5%, which exceeded our guidance, driven by commercial excellence, significant productivity actions net of inflation and higher UOP and flooring products volumes as we've discussed. This was partially offset by the resins and chemicals unplanned plant outages we highlighted and continued investments for growth across PMT. So in summary, despite less sales growth than expected the business continues to deliver on results. Also PMT is aggressively pursuing cost reduction opportunities in anticipation of potential further top line pressure. I'm now on slide 10 with a preview of the second quarter. For total Honeywell we are expecting sales of $9.6 billion to $9.8 billion, up 2% to 3% on a core organic basis, but down 4% to 6% reported. We think we're being prudent in our planning approach given the slow start for the top line we saw in the first quarter. Segment margins are expected to be up approximately 130 to 150 basis points versus 2014. We expect our segment margin rate to again benefit from the factors that drove the significant first quarter margin expansion, especially operational excellence and execution. We do anticipate higher engineering sales and marketing investments in the second quarter, as well as a less favorable sales mix and lower margin rate benefit from the friction materials, foreign currency and resins and chemicals raw materials pricing drivers I explained earlier. Given these factors and our conservative planning, the segment margin expansion may not be as robust as Q1, but will still be well into the triple digit range. With that said, second quarter EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.46 to $1.51, up 7% to 10% versus 2014 on a basis normalized for tax at 26.5% in both years. Moving into businesses, aerospace sales are expected to be up 1% to 2% on a core organic basis or down 5% to 7% on a reported basis, reflecting the year-over-year absence of friction material sales, as well as anticipated foreign currency headwinds in the quarter. In commercial OE, we expect core organic sales will be up low single digit, driven primarily by continued healthy demand in mid to large cabin business aircraft where we have significant new content, partially offset by the timing of ATR OE build rates. In commercial after market we expect core organic sales to be up low to mid single digit, with continued repair and overhaul and ATR spares growth, partially offset by slower BGA spares growth. Defense and space sales are expected to be approximately flat on a core organic basis, driven by continued strengths in the international business, offset by a decline in the US as we've highlighted. In transportation systems, sales are expected to be up mid single digits on a core organic basis, but down significantly on a reported basis. Similar to the first quarter, the growth in TS on a core organic basis is primarily driven by new launches and strong light vehicle gas turbo volume globally. As for aerospace margins, we expect an increase of 140 to 160 basis points in the second quarter driven by commercial excellence, significant productivity improvements across the portfolio, and favorable impacts of the friction materials divestiture. ACS sales are expected to be up 4% to 5% on a core organic basis or down 1% to 3% on a recorded basis, with mid-single digit core organic growth in ESS and continued growth in BSD. The difference between the reported and organic core growth rates reflects the foreign currency headwinds in the quarter. The trends in the end markets where we primarily participate, residential, commercial and industrial, continue to be consistent with what we highlighted in December. We continue to benefit from new product introductions in high growth region penetration, as we saw in China and India in the first quarter. ACS margins are expected to be up 80 to 100 basis points driven by good conversion on higher volumes, commercial excellence, and continued productivity net of inflation, while maintaining the investments for growth I spoke about earlier. In PMT sales are expected to be down 1% to approximately flat on a core organic basis, and down approximately 7% to 9% recorded, driver by foreign currency headwinds and the continued impact of lower oil prices on resins and chemicals. We're expecting UOP to be down mid single digit on a core organic basis, primarily driven by difficult year-over-year comps in our catalyst business, partially offset by continued growth in gas processing. You'll remember we experienced double-digit sales growth in the catalyst business in the second quarter of 2014. In HPS we're expecting core organic sales to be approximately flat. We continue to see delays in the conversion of orders and backlog, particularly in the large projects business, offset by software and services growth in our large install base. On the advanced material side, we're expecting mid single digit growth on a core organic basis, principally driven by continued strength in flooring products. Overall PMT segment margins in the quarter are expected to be up 240 to 260 basis points versus 2014 driven by productivity net of inflation, commercial excellence and the favorable margin rate impact of the market based pricing model in resins and chemicals. The second quarter will be challenging for PMT however. The second quarter will be challenging for PMT. However, the conservative cost actions we've taken give us confidence in our ability to deliver our forecast. Let me move to slide 11 for an update on our full year guidance. You can see revised sales and margin targets for 2015. The reported sales growth is expected to be lower than the core organic growth, principally due to foreign currency headwinds. The impact of the friction materials divestiture and raw materials pricing in resins and chemicals. Our end markets are generally holding up with commercial and industrial momentum, largely offsetting the headwind in oil and gas, and I'll get into more detail on this in a moment. Our new sales guidance reflects the further strengthening of the US dollar since we provided our initial outlook back in December. For example, we're now playing for a euro exchange rate for approximately $1.10 for the remainder of the year and have similar revisions for other currencies and now expect an approximate $1.7 billion headwind for the top line from foreign currency for the full year. To remind you, our operating profits are protected from further US dollars strengthening by our hedging approach, even though the top line is adversely impacted. For example with the euro, our operating profits are protected at a rate of about $1.24. And as Dave indicated for 2016 we're taking a similar approach. We put hedges in place to cover approximately 85% of our 2016 euro P&L exposure at the planning rate of approximately $1.10. On a core organic basis, our sales growth for 2015 is now approximately 3%. This reflects the slow start we had in the first quarter and the risks associated with order delays, we've been able – we've seen to date, primarily in aerospace and PMT. In ACS there is some minor puts and takes among the businesses, but overall the outlook for the rest of the year remains intact and we continue to expect good core organic growth, particularly in our short cycle businesses. We're raising our segment margin targets in all businesses due to favorable drivers previously discussed, including commercial excellence, HOS, restructuring, and a continued focus on managing our costs, as well as the impact to the foreign currency hedges and the market based pricing model in resins and chemicals. In addition as Dave mentioned, we're raising the low end of our EPS guidance extension [ph] mark-to-market by $0.05 to $6.15 per share, representing 8% to 11% growth versus 2014, and providing the framework for another year of strong earnings growth in what continues to be a challenging global economy. This range continues to be based on a full year income tax rate assumption of 26.5% and share count held roughly flat to 2014 levels. We continue to expect free cash flow in the range of $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion, up 8% to 10% from 2014 with CapEx investments peaking this year at roughly two times depreciation. At a more normalized rate of CapEx investment approximately 1.25 times depreciation, we would expect free cash flow conversion to be approximately 100%, and we expect to be at those levels again by 2017. So overall, still a very balanced outlook for the year. Let me move on to slide 12. With the first quarter in the books, we thought it'd be helpful to provide an update on how we see things in our key end markets and how they are impacting our planning for the remainder of 2015. Starting with aerospace, the outlook on the commercial side is largely the same as we outlined in March. As OE build rates and flight hours remain strong. On the commercial OE side, we still expect a benefit from build rate schedules and a ramp up in new platforms, including Airbus A350 and ATR and the Bombardier Challenger 350 and Embraer Legacy 500 and BGA. Flight hours for ATR are expected to grow approximately 4% in 2015, similar to 2014. And on the business jet side, we expect the flight hours for large cabin aircraft will continue to grow in 2015, up mid single digit reflecting the continued healthy demand in the cabin sized sector we are more represented. In defense and space, we're seeing strong international demand as defense budgets continue to grow. This is supported by the 20% plus core organic growth we saw in our international business in the first quarter and a very strong backlog. We expect the US portion of the business to stabilize consistent with the US DoD budgets despite the timing delays we encountered in the first quarter. In the automotive market, we're seeing the market improving as turbo adoption continues in the life vehicle gas segment globally and as light vehicle production picks up. This should bode well for us going forward as we expect to outpace the industry in gasoline turbo wins. Moving to ACS, residential markets continue to grow at a steady pace as urbanization in high growth regions progresses. We continue to accelerate our investments in the connected home space where we have a strong install base and market channel and where we expect to benefit from new product introductions in both ECC and security. On the non-res side, we continue to expect acceleration in commercial construction spending and our positive outlook for the full year remains intact despite a slower than anticipated start. As I mentioned earlier, we saw a strong growth in our short cycle businesses in fire and security and expect that positive end market trends will continue to drive growth in these businesses. As for building solutions, the strong backlog from our projects business and service bank continue to support an improvement for the remainder of 2015. On the industrial side, we continue to benefit from increasing safety standards across the globe, as activity picks up in both the US and in our high growth regions. So overall, very similar to where we were in March, and good momentum as we head into the second quarter. We've touched a lot on PMT already, but to summarize the impacts from oil and gas are becoming clearer and more pronounced than we initially anticipated. However, we continue to proactively address PMTs cost position and are confident in power managing our exposure to the sector. In advanced materials, we continue to see robust demand for our low global warming Solstice products, supporting the significant investments we've made in this business heading into 2015 and 2016. We once again saw double-digit core organic growth in flooring products in the quarter. Let's now move to our updated full year segment guidance on page 13. Let me explain the setup here, the left-hand side of the slide represents the guidance as of our December outlook, and an estimate of the core organic sales growth under those assumptions. The 5% growth we show here on a core organic basis is on the same basis as the 4% organic growth we previously articulated. We simply restated the 5% to reflect the adjustment for the resins and chemicals price impact. The right half reflects our current guidance, including the first quarter results and latest outlook by business on a core organic bass. We won't get in all of details again, but just want to highlight that our core organic growth expectations in aero and ACS are down slightly given the slow start and PMT has been adversely impacted as previously explained. However, we continue to expect good margin improvement across the businesses for the reasons I discussed earlier. We continue to take a conservative approach to the rest of the year. We're committed to our EPS outlook raising the low end, while continuing to invest for the future in seed planting and additional restructuring. This confidence is derived from the good visibility we have on new products and technologies, our penetration of high growth regions, our conservative cross planning and the deployment of our key process initiative is part of HOS goal. Let's turn to slide 14 for a brief wrap up before I move on to Q&A. This was another quarter where the Honeywell business model and HOS enabled us to set and exceed challenging performance expectations. The quarter started slow and not all the markets we participate in were giving us help, but we picked up momentum and exited on a strong note with significant outperformance in both segment margin and EPS. Our shareholders are benefit from a diverse portfolio with great technologies and long and short cycle exposure, one that continues to derive significant benefits from comprehensive globalization, and one that will further benefit from the significant fire power [ph] that we have on our balance sheet. With a little more help from the economy, we are well positioned to continue outperformance throughout 2015, all the while seeding and feeding our growth initiatives. Like all of you, we're also thinking about what's beyond 2015. Each of our HOS Gold enterprises are hard at work on their five year strategic plans, which Dave and his staff will dive into before our next earnings call. And if you've already heard, some of our early actions we've taken for 2016, including additional restructuring and hedging of our foreign currency exposures. We look forward to sharing more over the course of 2015. With that, let's move on to the Q&A segment.
Mark Macaluso:
Michael, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Certainly. [Operator Instructions] We will go first to Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Davis:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
David M. Cote:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Davis:
Guys, what happened in January, I'm – is there any kind of general theme to why January started so weak for you?
David M. Cote:
You know, I wish there was. Interestingly, at least from the talking I did around the horn [ph] we weren't alone. I mean, this was kind of a phenomenon that some even saw in the banking community. There was just something about January that caused everything to be a slowdown, and I'd have to say I was a little nervous as we were in January, and then things turned in February and turned bigger in March. So I can't explain it. It just happened.
Tom Szlosek:
And it was pervasive Scott across the, you know, almost every one of our business units…
David M. Cote:
Around the world.
Tom Szlosek:
Everywhere.
Scott Davis:
Yes, that's amazing. Okay. Good. And then, I struggle sometimes, I mean your margins are exceptional and continue to be on the right path. But what does HOS really mean to margins? Can you quantify it at all? I remember when you went from nothing to bronze, it was a pretty meaningful step up. Is gold as meaning to step up when you come up from silver?
David M. Cote:
Yes. Well, it is pretty meaningful I'd say being able to get there. We don't have that many units that are actually there at gold yet. That's one of the things that – that's why we think there's a lot more improvement left in the company. It's tough to quantify exactly what the dollar amount is that – or the rate amount that comes from HOS, but it's going to continue to grow. Because as we've tried to show in the past it doesn't just kind of raise your overall level, but it raises your improvement rate per year also So think of it is, it's not just a first derivative improvement. It's a second derivative improvement also. So I'm actually quite encouraged about what this is going to continue to be able to do for us.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. And I would add that the way we're defining HOS Gold, as we talked about at the Investor Day cuts across the entire business and enterprise, whereas once it was focused on factories and the supply chain, it now extends to engineering and product development, commercial excellence, dealing with our customers and the like. So all of those things were contributors as I tried to articulate when I explained that 140 basis point expansion in the first quarter.
Scott Davis:
And last just quickly, on M&A is it – are the gating factors really price or is it availability of assets or both?
David M. Cote:
I'd say its more price now than anything else. Prices are just high. This is – we're going to continue to be disciplined and be smart about this. But prices are high right now, and you haven't heard me say that much in the past, but this time they are.
Scott Davis:
Yes. Well, we hear that from everyone. So great, thanks guys. I'll pass it on.
David M. Cote:
All right. See you, Scott.
Operator:
We will go next to Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
David M. Cote:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Hey. Can we just get a little more color on UOP? I may have missed it, Tom, when you went through all that detail. But what were UOP orders actually like in the quarter and, you know, if we think about the capacity that you have coming on, is it still, you know, fully sold and, you know, and how firm is the backlog in that business?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. Well, the orders were roughly flat in the quarter for UOP, but it was – it was kind of a tale of two cities. The gas businesses are being impacted by delays. We think there was a significant amount of orders that were pushed out into the second quarter and third quarter on the international side. So we're expecting those to come back in. But on the other hand the technologies and equipment business, performance technologies and equipment had an outstanding orders growth, strong, strong double-digit growth. Catalysts were essentially flat to the year. So overall those were the contributors to UOP. Good activity and the backlog as well. You know, down a little bit, but overall in pretty good shape.
Jeff Sprague:
And on the expansion?
Tom Szlosek:
And to answer the question on expansion that demand is still there. I was actually at the Jon Hegan [ph] factory in the first quarter, and it will be – it is starting to run at full capacity. So really excited about those investments that we're making. And the capital spending plans are all on schedule and we're going to hit the targets and get the market benefit.
David M. Cote:
On the expansions, Jeff, I'm more worried about making sure we hit the startup date than anything else because the demand for the product's there.
Jeff Sprague:
Okay. Great. And just on the hedging, is the hedge only on the euro or you're hedging other currencies where you can, at that rate, at that kind of 85% coverage?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, it's not just the euro, Scott – Jeff. It's all the currencies where we have exposure. We take a comprehensive look at our long – the currencies where we're long and the currencies where we're short. The currencies where we manufacture versus the currencies where we only sell. It's a comprehensive model, but in the end we end up doing comprehensive hedging in a number of different currencies, euro, GBP, Australian dollar, others. And we get some natural benefit from currencies that we are currently locking in. So unbalanced it's not just the euro.
Jeff Sprague:
And then given kind of the peculiarity of January, I know it's early, but, you know, any thoughts on how April is starting? I mean, there's just so many cross currents out there. Does this pick up in February and March that you saw? Is it continuing into the early part of the second quarter here?
Tom Szlosek:
Well, it's a little tough to tell at this point, but we think it's going to be – I don't know that it's going to be as strong as it was in February and March, but it's certainly going to be a lot better than January.
Jeff Sprague:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Tom Szlosek:
You're welcome.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Stephen Tusa:
Hey, good morning.
David M. Cote:
Hey, Steve.
Stephen Tusa:
On the aerospace side you mentioned some funding issues I guess from some customers. I know the GE talked about some supply chain dynamics going on out there, I guess PCP, there have been some issues around I guess seeding with the 787. What is, you know, maybe the flavor of what's going on in the commercial aerospace side? If you could put a little more – some more details around that?
Tom Szlosek:
Happy to clarify that comment, Steve. It was more to deal with the commercial side and customers, you know, emerging market regions, particularly in Russia with the, you know, the impact that the global economy has had and the sanctions it had. Our customers, some of our customers are experiencing some funding delays. And so we've held up a shipment until we can get those clarified. We're 100% confident it's going to resolve itself and it already is resolving itself in the second quarter. So it's more a matter of risk management than any kind of demand issue.
Stephen Tusa:
Does that, I mean I guess Dave at a higher level, is that a comment on what's going on out there financially in emerging markets or is that an aerospace specific type of thing?
David M. Cote:
I would say this is more aero specific in certain emerging market countries.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. So not something we should kind of, you know, from a – just a liquidity perspective out there globally, there's a lot going on with currencies and the central banks, you know, shooting money all the over the place. So I guess that we shouldn't be kind of concerned about this more globally for the economy?
David M. Cote:
No, absolutely not.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay.
Tom Szlosek:
It is definitely concentrated in Russia, Steve, and…
Stephen Tusa:
Okay.
Tom Szlosek:
You know the size of Russia for us.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. Got it. And then just on UOP, what is the – what's kind of the size of the international opportunity at Thomas Russell again? I know you guys have talked about, I don't know, something like bidding on 10 projects and you guys have given some revenue numbers. I am just – that business is clearly going to have a little bit of a rough patch here. It's only $500 million in revenues. But what is kind of the size of international and how – can you put that in a context as far as what the opportunity there is to kind of fill the hole in 2016?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, I'd say it's a little tougher to say how big it could be because we're not quite sure ourselves. It's a lot bigger even than we anticipated when we first did the acquisition, and we continue to be pretty encouraged by the stuff we're finding. So what we're seeing is a much greater strength on the international side and of course less on the US side. So we expect that the international piece of this is going to be a really good positive for that business.
Stephen Tusa:
Can it be…
Tom Szlosek:
I can't put a number on it right now.
Stephen Tusa:
Right. But I guess can it be somewhat material to that $500 million business in 2016?
Tom Szlosek:
Oh, yes. Yes, definitely.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. Okay. So you can see some of that comes through to offset whatever we may see in Russell for 2016. And then one last question, you said $0.10 of exposure to this kind of euro hedging dynamic in 2016, I guess at the Investor Day. I'm just doing the rough math on what you said, I guess is it – is it now about $0.15 or is it still around, you know, what's the actual year-over-year headwind number for 2016 as we stand today?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, Steve I would compare the $1.24 that I mentioned that were hedged after the euro to next year's rate which will be $1.10. And…
Stephen Tusa:
Okay.
Tom Szlosek:
You can kind of apply that to our business. I think the range we gave still is intact.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. So it's around $0.10 still, no real change there?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. It's reasonable to think about it as, like a penny for a penny. So it's reasonable to think about it that way, and I think it's important to think about it in the context of 6 bucks.
Stephen Tusa:
Absolutely. Absolutely. Okay, thanks.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
We will go next to Steven Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks. And good morning, guys.
David M. Cote:
Hey, Steve.
Steven Winoker:
Hey, Dave you mentioned before in answering the earlier question that prices were high and M&A and the current environment is a gating factor right now. I know you're a patient guy sometimes, but how long and – well, not that many topics right, but how long and how – what happens on your capital deployment strategy? Do you start to consider other means of returning capital, or do you just say look, you know, over a long enough cycle it still makes sense to wait. What are you thinking?
David M. Cote:
I would say first of all, you characterized me correctly. I'm generally more impatient about things except when it comes to spending money, in which case I want to make sure that we're smart. The New Hampshire chief in me still would bug me to overpay with something.
Tom Szlosek:
I have to agree with both of those.
David M. Cote:
The – at the end of the day, though, we're still pretty much going to stick with what we talked about in that $1 billion to $2 billion net cash position at which point we'll start doing more on the repurchase side. And I think that's still a reasonable and a smart place to be overall. So it preserves fire power for those times when we can be opportunistic, but also says we're not going to let this get excessive.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. All right. And then the acceleration that this has baked in sequentially for ACS organically, you know, market dynamics that you're seeing in non-res specifically, could you maybe just also give a little more color, are you still seeing that strengthening, are you seeing kind of oil and gas regional slow down impacting any of those projects, the construction ones, not the oil and gas side of it, what are you seeing in that market?
David M. Cote:
The way I'd describe it is that it's stronger than our overall organic growth rate, not as strong as we thought it would be, But it looks like a lot of that was, I think a lot of that might have been weather impacted and we're anticipating that it continues to strengthen during the course of the year, Tom anything you want to…
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. If you look at the products that serve that or the businesses that serve that sector, the non-res sector Steve, they were between 3% and 4% organic growth for the quarter. So, I think it's very much in line with what we think the markets are doing.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. All right. I'm sure you have a lot of people waiting, so I'll pass it on. Thanks.
David M. Cote:
All right. Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
We will go next to Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
David M. Cote:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
So interesting on the organic growth, you're one of the few companies we've heard of so far where trends actually got better as the quarter progressed. I mean, you actually had some companies talk about March not happening. And so I'm curious Dave from your perspective what kind of impact do you think that oil and gas and the currency moved through here in the US are having on just industrial CapEx spend broadly and how that impacts your business?
David M. Cote:
I would say on the CapEx side, I mean the only real effect that we're seeing is on the oil and gas piece of this. I'd be hard pressed to point to something elsewhere I would – where I could say that currency was having an impact on those decisions. I don't know, Tom, if anything comes to your mind or anything else.
Tom Szlosek:
No.
David M. Cote:
So, those – that's the only one that I could see, that's more oil price impacted than it is currency.
Joe Ritchie:
It seems like there's more of a direct impact to your business, but nothing indirect that you guys are hearing from your customers today?
David M. Cote:
Yes, I would say in general when it comes to FX, the only effect we're really seeing is on the translation side, and as you know we hedged the income number there and so it shows up on the sales side. But preserves the income side, which is one of the reasons our margins look good, and jeez, I think we should be getting kudos for being smart on how we hedged this year and next.
Joe Ritchie:
I'll give you kudos, it's by far the number one question I got from investors heading into the quarter. So I think taking – tabling some of that risk was definitely a smart and prudent move on your part. Maybe one other question because you did mention the margins. I mean, in your core operations, the margin expansion this quarter really good despite slower organic growth than expected. You've got this like five year target at the high end of 75 basis points, and you know, assuming organic growth continues to improve with the capacity investments that you've made, it would seem to me that that 75 basis points should be a lot steeper. So maybe some comments around the conservatism around the high end of that guidance range over your five year planning period.
David M. Cote:
Well, I would love to see that myself, and as you know, margin rates are a combination of a lot of things, so we're going to continue to drive it. I'm very committed to that five year plan and understand what I promised I'd deliver there. So there's a whole combination of thing that go into it, and yes, I'd love to see that margin rate improvement continue and I don't see any reason why we don't continue with a triple digit increase this year.
Joe Ritchie:
All right, helpful, guys. Thank you.
David M. Cote:
See you, Joe.
Operator:
We will go next to Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe:
Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys.
David M. Cote:
Hey, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Yes, so I just wanted – just come back to this January issue again. And if I just do the rough math and maybe someone can help me out here. It looks like February, March trended up 5%, and I'm sure that benefited a little bit of snap back from January, first of all is that correct. And secondly, given all the macro volatility, do you think we're in a – sort of a more volatile month-by-month pattern from here on Dave?
David M. Cote:
I don't know that it's going to be more volatile month-by-month. I would say, though, I really do believe that lower oil prices are going to play through bigger in the macro economy than what we've seen so far, especially in the US. And this is the – kind of the longest the consumer is gone historically with not spending kind of newfound riches, whether it's through oil price or tax refunds. So I think we're going to start to see the benefit of that sooner rather than later. I don't think it waits until next year. That being said, I don't want to count on it either because if I'm wrong, that's not a – not a good place to be. So I don't think that kind of what we saw January, February, and March continues, and then we'll see something that's a little more stable going forward.
Tom Szlosek:
And on your first – your first question, Nigel, yes, you got it pretty much right in terms of the 7 March numbers.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. And then just a follow up question on the aerospace. You call that tough China comps, you call out Russia, but outside of those regions would you say especially on the ATR side that, you know, airlines – airline behavior was consistent with plan and did provisioning have any impact on either the quarter or the year-over-year comp?
David M. Cote:
Provisioning didn't have that much impact on us that I'm aware of. And yes, airlines have been pretty consistent. And I actually think aerospace improves during the course of the year because of the timing on some of the shipments that didn't happen in the first quarter.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, I think also the – when you look at it by region, it's quite interesting Nigel, and we had mid-single digit growth in spares, ATR spares in the US, but because of those China issues we were definitely weighed down.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. And then just finally, you announced a big order in Egypt's – Egyptian refinery, $1.4 million, when does that start hitting the backlog?
David M. Cote:
I'm not sure. I don't know if that's in the backlog number yet.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
David M. Cote:
You're welcome.
Operator:
We will go next to Howard Rubel of Jefferies.
Howard Rubel:
Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you.
David M. Cote:
Hey, Howard.
Howard Rubel:
Dave, thank you. Dave, there's been a lot of stimulus efforts in Europe to help the economy. We can see a little bit of it in air traffic. What about on the ground in some of the ACS businesses or elsewhere?
David M. Cote:
I'd say ACS we're starting to see some improvement. I don't think it hit as fast as what you'd see on the aerospace side. But, yes, we're expecting that that's going to play through especially as that economy gets closer to 2%.
Howard Rubel:
Is there any market you can see better. I mean is it still just Germany or you see France improving or Spain or anything of that order?
David M. Cote:
I would just kind of – I'd say leave it as a general comment. The north is still stronger overall, and I think it's going to take a little bit of say a few more months before say some of the southern economies really start to feel it.
Howard Rubel:
But it sounds to me, though, like you're being very conservative, and it's still a wait and see. You're not adding people or anything like that at the moment?
David M. Cote:
I could say I am definitely not adding people in Europe.
Howard Rubel:
I get it.
Tom Szlosek:
Howard, just to put a little color on that. The – I mean, as we've continually said over the last two or three years, Europe and Africa for us have been relatively1%, 0, minus 1%, consistently quarter-over-quarter over quarter. This year was similar, to your point aero was stronger. We also saw good performance in the turbo business, good volume growth as that – the gas penetration continues to grow. So –but you know, it nets out to similar to the environments that we've seen in the past for Europe.
Howard Rubel:
I appreciate that. I'm just, you don't want them to spend all that money and not get anything for it and you have a lot of early cycle businesses and that's why I asked.
David M. Cote:
I think it does – it will show up Howard. I don't think though this turns Europe around. I do believe that we'll see some short lived impact from all of this. But, at the end of the day they still need to address a lot of their social issues. And they are just – and my fear is that some of this is going to cause them to delay taking the actions they need to, to become more competitive as a region.
Howard Rubel:
And then just as a follow up in a slightly different vein, you have talked a lot about new products. Could you elaborate a little bit on what we might see in a fashion later in the year in terms of – it sounds like a lot of things are going to happen in ACS either in connected home. Is there – you know, as you're sort of previewing ideas to the dealers or otherwise when might we expect some rollout and impact from this?
David M. Cote:
Yes, as is typical with us and I know you hear me talk about this diversity of opportunity a lot and that there's never – while there's never any one big thing that's going to hurt us, which I think is a good way to run the place. There's never any one big thing that's going to make all the difference for us, either, rather it's going to be a series of products in a number of areas that are going to make the difference here. And I'm actually pretty encouraged in some of the gross margin rate improvement you saw was attributable to just being able to introduce new products at better margin rates because it adds more value. And I think you're going to – I feel pretty confident you're going to continue to see more of that.
Howard Rubel:
Thank you very much.
David M. Cote:
You're welcome, Howard.
Operator:
And we will take our final question from Andrew Obin of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin:
Thanks a lot for fitting me in guys.
David M. Cote:
Hey, Andy.
Andrew Obin:
So my question is just a follow up on Joe Ritchie's question. Obviously the margins were fantastic in the quarter. But if I look at your core growth outlook, you know the 18 target is 4% to 6% top line and last year we were below this target and the idea was that we were going to accelerate into 2015. And as I look at your organic growth target for 2015 it seems we're actually decelerating versus 2014, 2 to 3 versus 3%. So does that mean the plan now is more about margins as opposed to organic growth? Has the balance shifted between the two given what we are seeing now for two years?
David M. Cote:
I would say 2018 is still three years away, and things have a way of changing, and of course we're trying to make sure that we end up in that range, that combination of sales growth and margin rate growth. And right now, last year and this year, organic sales were not as good as what we'd hoped for. Largely because global GDPs didn't even achieve the kind of conservative numbers that we thought we had in there. So I'd say, yes, we're going to make sure that we continue to work on both. If GDP growth isn't there to support that kind of organic sales growth then you'll probably see even more margin rate improvement and vice versa. If global GDP does start to take off and sales start to improve, well, you'll see more attributable to the sales side. So, we're still committed to those five year targets and we're going to continue to work both of those variables.
Tom Szlosek:
And if I could add…
Andrew Obin:
That’s a great…
Tom Szlosek:
And if I could add the – as we talked about the Investor Day, we are experiencing really good win rates and we are expecting inflection points at aerospace and in PMT given the investments that we've made and the new platforms we're on. So, I think that's going to be a nice catalyst and we still obviously – you know, obviously have our eye on organic growth as a big part of it.
David M. Cote:
That's a good point, Tom, and we've talked about that on Investor Day with those inflection points. Those definitely happening.
Andrew Obin:
And if I can just squeeze in one technical question, in terms of your change in your methodology for PMT for input costs, what kind of impact did it have in terms of your organic growth number. Did it have a negative impact for the annual guidance? I just didn't quite understand that?
David M. Cote:
It’s about half a point, I'd guess.
Tom Szlosek:
It’s about a half a point for the quarter, yes.
David M. Cote:
The reason that we excluded Andy is just that it has no impact on operating income, and you want to use that as a proxy for volume and what's occurring out there in your actual shipments. So the shipments are actually fine. Operating income is just fine, and in fact, it increases our margin rates because of it. So that's why we excluded it because it just didn't seem to make sense.
Andrew Obin:
No, terrific. Really appreciate the comment. Thanks a lot.
David M. Cote:
All right. Andy, thanks.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back to Dave Cote for closing comments.
David M. Cote:
In a difficult first quarter macro environment, we were actually quite pleased with our operating performance, and I hope you were too. Our initiatives like HOS Gold, HUE and software are working, and our business model continues to deliver. Raising our guidance for the year is a nice display of our confidence in our ability to deliver this year, next year, and beyond. The diversity of opportunity resident in our portfolio really does make a difference in our ability to outperform. Our opportunities far outweigh any risks we deal with, and we're actually pretty excited about where we're going. So thanks for listening. Bye-bye.
Operator:
Thank you. And this does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your disconnect your lines at this time. And have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mark Macaluso – VP, IR David M. Cote – Chairman and CEO Tom Szlosek – SVP and CFO
Analysts:
Steven Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Scott Davis – Barclays Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Steve Tusa – JP Morgan Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer and Company
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Honeywell’s Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mr. Mark Macaluso, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Mark Macaluso:
Thank you, Lisa. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote and Senior Vice President and CFO, Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of this presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10(k) and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2014 and share with you our guidance for the first quarter and full year of 2015. Finally as always we will leave time for your questions at the end. So with that I’ll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote.
David M. Cote:
Thanks Mark, good morning everyone. We delivered another excellent quarter capping off terrific 2014. In this fourth quarter we delivered better than expected operational performance in each of our key metrics at sales, margin, earnings, and cash meeting or exceeding our guidance across the board. We have delivered 4% organic sales growth following 5% growth in the third quarter and we continue to drive margin expansion up 130 basis points excluding the impact of the fourth quarter 2014 aerospace OEM incentives which we discussed in detail last month. We delivered earnings per share of $1.43 up 15% year-over-year or up 11% normalized for tax. So another quarter of double-digit earnings growth and $0.01 above the high end of our guidance range with strong execution across portfolio. For the full year we increased sales on an organic basis 3% while continuing our seed planting with investments in new products and technology, high ROI CAPEX, and expansion of our global footprint. We achieved significant margin expansion with benefits from our key process and productivity initiatives and we have been able to achieve all this in what continues to be a slow growth macro environment. The momentum we saw in the second half gives us confidence in this year. Our short cycle businesses continued to improve with good organic growth in the commercial aftermarket business, ESS, advanced materials, and transportation systems all suggesting a modest improvement in end market conditions overall. We are also seeing good momentum out of our long cycle businesses building on our robust backlog. We believe the portfolio is well positioned to deliver this year and beyond enhanced by the smart gain deployment actions we have taken over the past years. While I believe the global economy could be a bit better this year than economists are forecasting currently, we will as always plan conservatively in our outlook and remain flexible. As you will hear in a moment, we continue to plan for a slow to no growth environment in Europe. We’ve hedged over 80% of our P&L exposure related to the Euro and we remain focused on controlling our spend. As Tom previewed in December, we sold the final 1.9 million shares of B/E Aerospace stock this quarter. To remind you, we originally received 6 million shares as time to consideration for the sale of our Aero consumable solutions business in 2008. At that time those shares were worth about 150 million. We sold those shares over the course of the last five quarters for total of about 500 million. We deployed the results and gains for restructuring and other actions to proactively position the company’s future growth and profitability. The actions in the fourth quarter will significantly benefit Aerospace over our five year plan and we believe we are well positioned for future success with our commercial OE customers as a result. Now there continue to be a lot of exciting things happening across the portfolio to drive those results and to highlight a few Honeywell standing and mobility delivered another quarter of double digit organic sales growth benefitting from new customer wins. Following the success we’ve had with Intermec HSM announced in December the acquisition of Datamax-O'Neil, a global manufacturer of fixed and mobile printers used in a variety of retail, warehousing distribution, and healthcare applications. This acquisition positioned HSM to expand in the $1.5 billion global bio-code printing segment and build on their existing printing capabilities prior to that. The team is really excited about this acquisition which extends our global reach and provides scale and significant synergy opportunities. Transaction is expected to close this quarter. While our dealer activity in this past year was modest; the M&A pipeline remains robust and we intend to maintain our disciplined process and extend our strong track record. We’ve also talked a lot about our Solstice line of refrigerants, insulation materials, aerosols, and solvents that have ozone depletion of zero and a global warming potential lower than co2. And that’s a thousand times better than what it replaces. Earlier this month we announced that our flowing products business has started full scale commercial production in our Baton Rouge, Louisiana facility of the newest Solstice product. HFO-1234Ze, now that is one impressive catchy name so I think we are going to publish stick with Solstice. We are seeing increasing demand for our entire Solstice suite of low GWTP material. The lifetime value of signed agreements in 2014 exceeds 2.3 billion and we have an additional billion dollars plus under negotiations. Process solutions has also been a bright spot as we close out the year. Organic sales growth accelerated in the second half of the year and orders were up double digit in the fourth quarter supporting continued growth this year. HPS is transforming project execution with LEAP, that is lean execution of automation projects and is innovating to win the market with automation offerings across control and safety systems, field devices, plant optimization software and services. We are also excited about the growth synergies from HPS and UOP doing together. Our ability to match UOP process and operating knowledge with HPS control and advance software solutions will enable unmatched operating excellence while refining petrochemical and gas process in customers. You can expect to see more of our innovation on display at the margin investor day where each of the businesses will highlight a number of heavy influence, new products and road maps for our future growth in productivity. We also plan to share with you how HOS goal is evolving throughout the organization which we believe is a key differentiator. We held at our annual senior leadership meeting earlier this month and I could tell you that each of the businesses are hard at work finding new and innovative breakthrough objectives to drive growth and margin expansion. Having successfully performed against the five year targets we set for 2010 to 2014 we are now focused on delivering 2015 and the five year targets we issued last March for 2014 to 2018. 2014 was a strong start. Our business model works. Having a strong portfolio with great positions in good industries, making sure the machinery works better every day for our customers, suppliers, and employees and a culture that focuses on one Honeywell and evolving our capability and technologies. From our culture we get sustainability results. So with that I will turn it over to Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks Dave and good morning. Let's begin on slide 4 which recaps our fourth quarter results compared with the guidance we gave you last month at the December Outlook call. On the left hand side we have outlined the guidance we shared with you in December. On the right you can see our results for the quarter as reported. I am not going to walk through each line item here but you can see based on the check marks that we delivered or exceeded our guidance on each line item including the top and bottom line. The incremental sales and segment profit enable us to beat the higher end of our EPS guidance range and also perform incremental restructuring and other actions in the quarter. There are couple of transactions that occurred in the fourth quarter that are worth reminding you and again they unfolded exactly as we forecasted in December. First we completed the sale of the remaining BEAV share as Dave said resulting in a $114 million gain, $0.14 per share on an after tax basis. The timing of the sale was important from a tax perspective as we noted in December. The timing allowed us to offset that gain with other items and therefore incur very little income tax on the transaction. Also in the quarter our aerospace business recognized the cost of certain commercial OEM incentive that became due when our customer achieved contractual development milestones on platforms which will include Honeywell avionics and mechanical content. The cost was 184 million or 114 million on an after tax basis, that is $0.14 per share. As you know we have won significant content in the air transport and business aviation sectors and such upfront incentives are part of the business model. And as you are also aware, accounting for these incentives is quite conservative. Many others in the industry defer these types of cost on their balance sheet and expense them over the life of the platform. We believe charging incentives upfront gives greater transparency to our OEM profitability in this segment. Also the OEM incentives position us well on the platforms already won but also to win new business on the content to be selected in the future. I am now on slide 5, which shows the fourth quarter results without the aero OEM incentives or BEAV gain. Sales of 10.5 billion increased 1% or 4% on an organic basis. The absence of friction materials and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar were headwinds to reported sales growth in the quarter. If you recall we divested protection materials in the third quarter so that there will continue be unfavorable sales headwinds throughout the first half of 2015. We are encouraged with the growth momentum that are beginning to emerge. We achieved 4% organic sales growth in the second half of 2014 compared with 2% for the first half and 2% for all of 2013. The growth we saw in the fourth quarter was broad based and resulting in better than expected performance across the portfolio. I will provide more color as we review the business groups in a moment. You can see that segment profit increased 9% with segment margin expanding 130 basis points. Our efforts to drive commercial excellence supported by differentiated technology continued to produce results. In addition productivity remains a key driver of margin expansion offsetting inflation and our continued investments for growth. EPS was $1.43 up 15% consistent with our historical practice, this excludes the annual mark to market adjustment for defined benefit pension plan. In the fourth quarter this mark to market adjustment was approximately 249 million or $0.23 per share. Principally driven by lower discount rates in our German and Dutch plans. So the fourth quarter reported EPS was $1.20 and for reference purposes the mark to market adjustment in 2013 was 51 million or about $0.05 a share. Finally free cash flow in the quarter of 1.3 billion representing conversion of 119% and an increase of 6% from 2013. So overall we generated very strong results in a relatively slow growth environment and we increased our annual dividend in the fourth quarter by 15% to $2.07 a share, continuing our commitment to growing the dividend faster than the earnings rate growth and a trend you can expect will continue. On slide 6, same fourth quarter results we are presenting on a reported basis. So as you can see our reported sales decreased 1% and that was driven by the aero OEM incentives. No change to the 4% organic sales growth in the quarter as shown in the previous page. So on a reported basis segment profit decreased 2% with margins contracting 20 basis points to 15.9% in the quarter. Again the only difference from the previous slide -- is the inclusion of the 184 million charge for the aero OEM incentives. Moving to net income, the BEAV gain and the OEM incentives fully offset one another on a net of tax basis and normalized for tax EPS in the quarter increased 11% year-over-year. The rest of the figures on this slide are identical to the prior fourth quarter slides. I am now on slide 7, a recap of full year of 2014 results again without the impact of Aero OEM incentives over the BEAV gain. Full year sales of 40.5 billion, up 4% or 3% on an organic basis. The primary difference between the reported and organic rate is the Intermec acquisition net of the impact of the protection materials divestitures. We saw a good organic growth across the portfolio including in scanning mobility, the fire industrial safety businesses, transportation systems, and UOP. Segment profit increased 8% demonstrating strong sales conversion and resulted in a 70 basis point improvement in the segment margin rate to 17%. All this resulted in earnings per share excluding pension mark to market adjustment of $5.56 a share up 12% over 2013. Representing our fifth consecutive year or double digit earnings growth and EPS $0.01 above the high end of our December guidance range. Our reported EPS of $5.33 for the year again reflects the $0.23 mark to market adjustment that I mentioned for the fourth quarter. So finally free cash flow was 3.9 billion in line with our guidance. Free cash flow increased 16% year-over-year despite an approximate 16% increase in CAPEX investments in the growth areas we previously shared with you mostly in the PMT. So let’s move to slide 8 to show the full year 2014 results including impacts of the aero OEM incentives and BEAV gains. To quickly recap 2014 sales were up 3% on both reported and organic basis to 40.3 billion. Segment profit was up 5% resulting in a 30 basis point margin expansion to 16.6%. So the aero OEM incentives reduced the reported growth from 4% to 3% and reduce its margin expansion from 70 to 30 basis points. The rest of the page again remains the same as the previous slide and now I want to move on to slide 9 and discuss the businesses starting with the aerospace. This first slide highlights the fourth quarter reported and organic sales growth rate for aerospace. As a reminder in the fourth quarter 2013 aerospace recognized an IP mitigation settlement resulting in a onetime royalty gain of 63 million in defense and space that was offset at the time by OEM incentive in BGA. Both of these items were included in and therefore netted out in sales and segment profit at the aerospace level in 2013. Total reported aerospace sales were down 6% in the fourth quarter of 2014 driven by three items, the 184 million OEM incentives that we discussed in our outlook call back in December; two, the friction materials divestiture which closed in the third quarter; and three, the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange on reported results. Whether on an organic basis fourth quarter sales now were up 4% driven by strong execution across the portfolio and each of the three legacy aero businesses accelerated growth in the fourth quarter compared with the first three quarters. And transportation systems continued its mid single digits growth performance. Organic sales growth in aero has accelerated throughout 2014 like Honeywell. So if you recall aero was up 1% in both the first and second quarters, 3% in the third quarter and now 4% to close out the year in the fourth quarter. If I look at the individual pieces of aerospace starting with commercial OE, sales decreased 14% on a reported basis driven by the net unfavorable impact of the OEM incentive. However on an organic basis sales grew 7% and that was principally the result of robust engine shipments and business in general aviation for the Bombardier Challenger 350 and Embraer Legacy 500. Moving to commercial after market, you can see 4% sales growth on both the reported and organic basis. ATR spares growth was balanced across both mechanical and electrical product lines offsetting moderation in BGARMUs, that’s retrofit modifications and upgrade. Both airline and business jet repair and overhaul activity improved in the quarter as well. Defense and space sales declined 3% on a reported basis driven by the absence of the prior year licensing royalty gain I just mentioned. However on an organic basis sales were up 2% in the quarter. International programs continued to drive growth with double digit sales increases offsetting modest declines in our U.S. DOD and government service businesses in the fourth quarter. Finally transportation system sales declined 16% on a reported basis reflecting the third quarter friction materials divestiture and foreign exchange headwinds. On an organic basis TS sales increased 4% in the quarter as we once again saw strong volume growth in light vehicle gas applications where we continue to see increased global penetration. We are also continuing to see our European commercial vehicle volumes grow as we benefit from new programs following the implementation of Euro 6 submission, regulations in the region. As you can see the underlying business growth trends across the aero portfolio remain positive consistent with the outlook we have provided to you in December. So I am now on slide 10 continuing with aerospace. The fourth quarter sales results and commentary are consistent with what I just discussed. So for the full year aerospace sales declined 1% on a reported basis driven by the friction materials divestiture and the impact of the OEM incentives. On an organic basis sales increased 2%. Aerospace margins contracted by 160 basis points in the quarter driven by the OEM incentives but excluding the 184 million charge for the OEM incentives. Segment margins in the fourth quarter were actually up 210 basis points driven by productivity net of inflation where material productivity continued to be a significant driver. Also commercial excellence and a favorable impact of the friction materials divestiture. And for the full year you can see that aero segment margins expanded 140 basis points again excluding the OEM incentives. So let's turn to ACS results on slide 11. ACS sales were up 6% on an organic basis in the quarter excluding an approximate 3% headwind from APEX. The growth came in above our guidance with both ESS and BSD finishing the year strong. ESS sales for the products businesses were up 7% on an organic basis in the quarter continuing the trend of progressively stronger growth noted in each quarter of 2014. Scanning & Mobility continues to perform well driven by new product introductions and large program wins such as the U.S. coastal service program we had in the last quarter. In addition we continue to realize integration benefits from Intermec supporting the strong growth we have seen from the combination of the two businesses. The pending acquisition as Dave mentioned of Datamax-O'Neil compliments our existing portfolio in the attractive bar code printing space acquired with Intermec. As for the rest of ESS, growth was driven by new product introductions, further penetration in high growth regions, higher residential sales which benefited both ECC and securities. And improvements in the non-resi market which benefited our supplier and industrial safety businesses. Building solutions and distribution sales were up 4% on an organic basis in the fourth quarter with continued strength in the Americas Fire and Security distribution businesses and acceleration in building solutions. Particularly within building solutions we saw a good growth in the Americas as well as an increase in higher margin service business. Both the building solutions backlog and service banks were up mid to high single digit on an organic basis supporting our outlook and confidence for sales acceleration in 2015. ACS margins expanded 70 basis points to 15.9% in the quarter. The business continues to benefit from good conversion on higher volumes and productivity net of inflation supported by our HOS initiatives offset by continued investments for growth. In addition we continue to realize incremental synergy benefits from combination of Intermec with HSM. So overall very good growth and execution of ACS and a lot more to come as the team continues to coordinate the individual businesses more and more through connected ACS which is an initiative to drive an enhanced degree of integration across the businesses and in particular in the supply chain and product developments and in the marketing areas. Alex will take more about this at our Investor Day in March. So moving to slide 12 for performance materials and technologies, PMT sales in the quarter were up 2.6 billion up 3% on an organic basis were approximately flat on a reported basis driven by foreign exchange headwinds. We will address the impact of lower oil prices on the PMT businesses in a moment but there was very little impact on PMT results in the quarter. For the fourth quarter UOP sales decreased 1% on an organic basis and as a reminder UOP had exceptional organic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 you will recall. They were up 17% last year driven primarily by increased catalyst sales, so a very difficult comparison year-on-year. UOP executed very well reflecting strong licensing revenue which partially offset the lower catalyst sale. We also continued to see strong order trends in gas processing particularly at UOP Russell giving us confidence as we head into 2015 and we anticipate further sales growth in 2016 and 2017 for the new capacity additions across UOP and also through advanced materials which come online in 2015. In process solutions, organic sales growth continues to accelerate. HPS was up 6% in the quarter while on a reported basis sales were flat at the organic or the strong organic international growth was offset by foreign exchange headwinds. HPS saw strong volume growth driven by the advanced solution software business and the HPS service business in all regions. Orders, backlog, and service bank growth also continued at a strong pace up double digits on an organic basis in the quarter and this orders growth increased steadily throughout 2014 which sets process solutions out nicely for accelerated sales growth in 2015 and beyond. Advanced material sales increased 4% on an organic basis driven by double digit sales and orders growth in flowing products and demand for a new low global warming potential suite of Solstice products continue to grow. This was partially offset by a decline in resins and chemical sales in the low single digit range. Driven principally by the market base pricing model whereby selling prices are closely tied the market price of raw materials. Most notably benzene, which is highly correlated to the price of oil. Well sales can be volatile. The pricing model largely protects the profit dollars in resin and chemical even on lower sales. PMT segment margins were up 90 basis points to 16.5% which exceeded our guidance driven by higher volumes and productivity net of inflation probably offset by a continued investments for growth. In UOP the higher mix of licensing revenue in the quarter resulted in a tailwind to margin. HPS also converted particularly well continuing with successful business transformation and benefiting from the growth I mentioned in the higher margin advance solution software and service businesses. I am now on slide 13 labelled 2015 planning update. And similar to what we did in December related to the impact of oil price declines on the portfolio I wanted to address some of the major global trends affecting our portfolio and explain how each of these items are impacting our plans for 2015. Let me start with oil price declines. Overall we continue to view the impact from lower oil prices as being net neutral to UOP and HPS. The upstream exploration and production parts of the value chain continue to represent at relatively small portion of our portfolio roughly 10% to 15% of the combine UOP and HPS businesses. And our upstream backlog has held firm. We are beginning to see some delays further downstream in countries that have net oil producers such as Russia and the Middle East. As refining and petrochemical progress decisions are deferred. On the other hand in countries that are big importers of oil, most notably China, India and the South East Asia region. As we had anticipated, the lower oil price has stimulated more discretionary mid and downstream spending where we are well positioned. This is being borne out for example in process solutions where orders and backlog grew roughly double digits on an organic basis in the quarter, as I highlighted earlier. So again we think oil prices are neutral, the UOP and HPS businesses at this time however we continue to monitor this activity closely as we look ahead. Sales in residents and chemicals will be negatively impacted by lower prices for the -- lower oil prices for the reasons I mentioned earlier. But while sales can be volatile, the pricing model again largely protects our profit dollars in this business even on the lower sales. Finally we anticipate will begin to see the favorable effects of lower oil prices on our cost structure particularly in our indirect spend and we believe this will accelerate throughout 2015. Of course it remained to be seen how oil prices will impact the global economy should prices stay below $50 longer term. However we continue this will be a net positive for the economy and Honeywell over the planning horizons. Turning to currency fluctuations we’ve obviously seen a continued weakening of the Euro. As we highlighted in December our 2015 plan is based on the Euro exchange rate of $1.20 as the midpoint. We have hedges in place covering approximately 80% of our Euro P&L exposure so whether we continue to be pressure on the sales line, our Euro based earnings are protected. We also continue to see volatility across our other currency exposure which again are likely to result in headwinds of the top line however similar to hedging we done for the Euro the actions we’ve taken largely protect our 2015 earnings outlook for these other currencies as well. And we will continue to actively monitor the situation. The outlook for the U.S. economy continue to improve and we are expecting a positive uptick in our U.S. businesses as a result. But we also remain focused on increasing our presence in high growth regions. As a reminder HGR now represents almost a quarter of our total business and are expected to drive 50% of the sales growth over the course of our five year plan. The population growth urbanization and infrastructure development continue to create attractive opportunities across our entire portfolio. In China we anticipate high single digit growth in 2015, after a year of roughly mid single digit growth in 2014. Our initiative of becoming the Chinese competitor continued to accelerate and bear fruit. Investments and local sales and marketing resources are targeted to the higher growth cities in China where local economies are growing much faster than the overall China GP. Also our one Honeywell approach specifically in ACS continues to drive cross selling opportunities across multiple channels. In addition we are building a robust pipeline of new products here towards the macro trends in the region, namely air purification, energy efficiency, and security. All these factors give us confidence in accelerated growth for Honeywell in China in 2015. In India after the investments across the region slowed in the first half of the year while the elections unfolded the second half of 2014 was very strong for Honeywell and we anticipate growth will be roughly high single digits in 2015 driven by international defensive space business, new launches in transportation systems, new product introductions in ESS across each of our major verticals, and growth in BSD from infrastructure projects and services. In Russia where our exposure is limited we have less than about 500 million in annual sales there. We continue to have a strong backlog in our long cycle businesses. We expect Russia to continue focusing their available capital on energy, so oil and gas and renewal of their aerospace sector, two areas where our portfolio is well positioned to grow. Our short cycle businesses in Russia have been impacted particularly as it relates to currency devaluation but again the exposure there is relatively small. And while our management team is paying close attention to the issues faced in the country, we are also continuing to look for opportunities to enhance our business in the region. In the Middle East we expect continued double-digit sales growth in 2015 after approximately 20% growth in 2014 and this is driven by big wins in both the short and long cycle businesses as infrastructure investments continue. Our portfolio was well positioned to benefit from even outpays in some cases to attractive growth rates in these markets. Turning to the non-residential sector, we are encouraged by the expected acceleration of commercial construction spending. Forecast to be up approximately 4.5% in 2015 and the continued solid growth on the industrial side in 2015. So as a reminder roughly 75% of the ACS portfolio serves the commercial industrial market and our balance portfolio is well positioned to capitalize on improvements in these areas. More specifically on the commercial product side after modest growth through the first three quarters of 2014 we saw some acceleration of fourth quarter with strong growth in the U.S. We expect the U.S. to continue to drive further commercial products growth in 2015 as well as acceleration in our high growth regions with strength in our ECC and Fire Systems businesses in particular. In the industrial products markets we expect higher sales of industrial safety equipment particularly in Americas which represents about half of our exposure. As for building solutions, the backlog from our projects businesses and service bank through mid and high single digit respectively on an organic basis this quarter and we continue to expect energy efficiency project to support global acceleration in 2015. With regard to our pension plans the net effects of higher investment returns and lower discount rates will drive up a 125 million increase to pension income for 2015. Now we intend to fully offset that increase with restructuring over the course of the year. In total our international pension plans represent approximately 25% of our worldwide defined benefit pension obligations. In the U.S. we ended the year with a discounted rate of 4.08% and a return on assets of 8% which resulted in U.S. funded status of approximately 95%. Globally the funded status is about 94%. We do not anticipate any 2015 cash contributions related to our U.S. plants. Let me turn to slide 14 to summarize our outlook for 2015. Our full year guidance is identical with what we shared with you in December. We continue to expect sales in the range of 40.5 billion to 41.1 billion up 1% to 2% on a reported basis and up approximately 4% on an organic basis. Reported sales growth is expected to be lower in organic primarily due to the impact of friction material divestiture and the foreign exchange headwinds. We are planning segment margin expansion of 100 basis points to 130 basis points or up, 60 to 90 basis points excluding the fourth quarter OEM incentives. We are projecting EPS and this excludes the pension market adjustment of $5.95 to $6.15 representing 7% to 11% growth versus 2014. The quarterly growth trends remained in line with our prior year results and this range also continues to be based on a full year income tax rate assumption of 26.5% and share account held roughly flat to 2014 level. Free cash flow is expected to be in the range of 4.2 billion to 4.3 billion up 8% to 10% from 2014 with CAPEX investments peaking at roughly two times this depreciation in a more normalized rate of CAPEX investment so around 1.25 times depreciation we expect free cash flow conversion to be at roughly 100%. So I am now on slide 15 with the preview of the first quarter. For total Honeywell we’re expecting sales of 9.4 billion to 9.6 billion that’s down 1% to 2% reported but up 3% to 4% on an organic basis. Segment margins are expected to be up approximately 110 basis points and EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.36 to $1.41 up 6% to 10% versus 2014. Starting with aerospace sales are expected to be up 3% to 4% on an organic basis was down 2% to 4% on a reported basis reflecting the year-over-year absence of friction materials as well as foreign exchange headwinds. We are expecting positive organic sales growth from each of the four businesses in the quarter. In commercial OE we are expecting sales up lower to mid single digit driven primarily by new platform wins and BGA. The growth is driven by favorable demand trends for high value business jet platforms where we have significant new engine content. In commercial after market we are expecting sales to be up low single digit with continued repair and overhaul growth as well as ATR spares growth in the quarter driven by higher demand for both mechanical and electrical products. Partially offset by a decline in BGA RMUs against the challenging prior year comparisons. Defensive space sales are expected to be up lower to mid single digit in the quarter driven by continued strength in international businesses. In transportation system sales are expected to be up mid single digit on an organic basis were down significantly on a reported basis driven by the absence of friction and the foreign exchange headwinds I mentioned. On organic basis the growth in TS is primarily driven by new launches and strong light vehicle gas demand at each of our three key regions, U.S., Europe, and China. As for aerospace margins we expect an increase 100 to 120 basis points driven by commercial excellence, significant productivity improvements across the portfolio along with the favorable impact on the margin rate from the friction material divestiture. Turn to ACS sales are expected to be up 4% to 5% organically or flat to up 2% on a reported basis with continued mid single digit organic growth in both ESS and BSG. The difference between reported organic rates reflects the foreign exchange headwinds in the quarter. The end markets where we primarily participate, residential, commercial, and industrial are all looking moderately better as we start 2015 and we continue to benefit from new product introductions and high growth region penetration. Also the strong orders growth we saw at the end of 2014 involve the short and long cycle businesses, gives us increasing confidence in our outlook for 2015. ACS margins are expected to be up 100 to 120 basis points with continued benefits from commercial excellence and productivity net of inflation while accelerating investments for growth and new product area such as connected homes and in high growth region. Further we expect to realize synergies from integration of Datamax-O'Neil acquisition after the transaction closes as we did with Intermec throughout 2014. In PMT sales are expected to be approximately flat on an organic basis and down approximately 1% to 3% reported driven by foreign exchange headwinds and the impact of lower oil prices on resins and chemicals, a point I made earlier. Excluding these factors PMT sales are expected to be approximately 4% in the quarter. We are expecting UOP to be up low single digit with gas processing sales expected to drive majority of the growth. In HPS we’re expecting organic sales up mid single digit. A favorable orders and backlog growth we saw in 14 will support the sales acceleration in 2015. On the advance material side we are expecting a low to mid single digit organic sales decline principally driven by a double digit decline in resins and chemicals due to the fact as I mentioned earlier. These declines are offset by a continued strength in our flooring products business which is benefitting from increased demand relating to the new products principally the Solstice product suite. Also PMT segment margins in the quarter are expected to be up 100 to 120 basis points versus 2014, driven by higher volumes and productivity as well as a favorable margin rate impact of the market based pricing model in resins and chemicals. Let me move to slide 16, for a quick wrap up. In 2014 we demonstrated once again that Honeywell can deliver on its commitment in a relatively slow growth economy and amidst of very volatile global trends reminding once again the value of our diversified and balanced portfolio the management team focused on execution and the strength of the Honeywell playbook and P&A. Combined these enabled us to add to our performance track record as we exceeded guidance on sales, achieved significant growth in segment margins and delivered on double-digit EPS growth we originally laid out last December. We are going to continue investing in our future with a focus on profitable sales growth. This will continue to meet investments in high ROI CAPEX and new product development and in sales and marketing resources particularly in high growth regions. The investments are paying off and you can see it in our results. As we turn our attention to 2015 we recognize the uncertainty in the macro environment but this is not new for us. We have and will continue to plan conservatively. We are confident that our portfolio is well positioned for continued outperformance. Our order trends both short and long cycle point to accelerated sales growth for next year that should enable continued strong improvement in our profitability. We are forecasting strong organic growth in 2015 and over 100 basis point improvement in our margins as our HOS golden issues are deployed across the portfolio. In addition we have significant restructuring savings in the bank for 2015. So we will continue to execute in 2015 and beyond. We are very excited about the upcoming year and have a lot of momentum across the portfolio as we head into year two of our five year plan. We look forward to telling you more on our March 4th Investor Day. So with that Mark let us go to the Q&A.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks Tom. Lisa if you would please open the line for questions. Operator Thank you sir, the floor is now open for question. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Steve Winoker with Bernstein.
Steven Winoker:
Hey, good morning all.
David M. Cote:
Hey Steve.
Steven Winoker:
After last quarter's multitude of congratulations, I am hesitant to say it again Dave, but I will say nice quarter and I guess I will get blamed by all my colleagues out there for doing this.
David M. Cote:
Yeah but same thing is nice. You wouldn’t want to do something like that.
Steven Winoker:
Well, I am trying to be very cautious on that front. It is one of my development needs. So any way listen, on the outlook call we spent a lot of time, you guys provided a great amount detail for thinking through the oil price -- declining oil price impact across all your businesses and I am trying to compare that to what Tom just walked us through but the thing that really is of maybe concern to me is that midstream downstream commentary where in December you really talked about how it was a net positive in terms of refined product demand investment downstream and other areas. I would just like to get a little more color on that particularly around the impact of maybe narrowing oil and gas spreads on some of those investments that are happening out there, just some more color on why we shouldn’t be worried about this for you guys and why is it actually a good thing?
David M. Cote:
I will kind of start with my perspective on it and turn it over to Tom for even more color commentary. But there is a difference between the upstream and the mid and downstream segments as you know and the mid and downstream in my view are going to be driven more by overall economic activity. Demand for that could be driven more by overall economic activity than whatever oil prices are. As a result of that I am expecting to see increased demand for refined goods and products which is going to cause greater demand on the mid and downstream side. Offsetting that at least in the short term is probably going to be some of the investments in places like Russia and Middle East, perhaps some in Brazil but they had already slowed significantly. That we will be more than offset by where everybody has to crank up everywhere else around the world. So that's kind of an overview that I see for it and as you probably know for the first time in five years I am actually a little more bullish on where the global economy is going than economic forecasts are. For the last four years I had been more negative generally and so far that's been a good call. But this time I think it could be more positive than what they think because that impacts. The lower oil prices is causing this major redistribution from oil producing to oil using economies and those oil using economies are quite large. So overall I think this is a good phenomenon, it is going to help drive more of that mid and downstream investments. Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, again what I would reiterate is the portion of our HPS and UOP business that's in the mid and downstream number one. Number two, the backlogs really backed up by the strong second half particularly in HPS are really strong. If you look at HPS, the backlog on a constant currency basis up 12% year-over-year and UOP backlog is also the UOP backlog is relatively flat 0% to 1%. But when I look at UOP continue to be always a lumpy business. Fourth quarter was a difficult comparison as I said, we had 17% growth from the fourth quarter 2013. But the backlog is strong as it’s ever been, its holding up, and our growth rate in 2015 are forecasted for UOP is at mid single digit growth or constantly look at all the indicators.
Steven Winoker:
And UOP is lumpy but with a very positive trend.
Tom Szlosek r:
And Tom you are not seeing any backlog price renegotiations. There is a lot of chatter about that in the market. No not at all we probe and probe this you might imagine and the only development I would say is you know deferral on new orders where you know multibillion dollar investments where decisions are being thought through carefully in the regions that Dave mentioned. But by and large that’s about the only impact we’ve seen so far.
Steven Winoker:
Okay I’ll hand it off, thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Barclays.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning guys.
David M. Cote:
Hey Scott.
Scott Davis:
I am glad to see you guys are bullish. We haven’t had a lot of positive conversations in the last couple of months. But maybe you can, I think your view on oil was pretty clear Dave but give us a sense of a view on currency and really the angle I am looking for is we’ve had a such a violent move that how does it change to competitive landscape. Do you see guys who can come in from Japan or other high cost regions like in Europe that can now suddenly compete against you and areas where they couldn’t compete against you before is that real or not real.
David M. Cote:
Well as you know the Japan phenomenon on this been a currency phenomenon. It’s been a couple years in the making and I can’t say that we ever saw much of an impact from any of that. I guess it remains to be seen on what happens with European competitors but again not thinking much of anything happening there when it comes to the overall currency we’ve assumed the U.S. dollar would strengthen for a while now and we’re little surprised actually that didn’t happen sooner than it has. So I would say it is one of those things we’ve been kind of counting on happening and as you know this is the first time in, well this is my going into my 14th year, this is the first time we’ve ever hedged the Euro translation and its solely because it seems like that was the 70% debt at this point. Who knows, things have a way of changing in ways that you never predict. But I still think that the prospect of 110 Euro this year is entirely possible.
Tom Szlosek:
The other thing I would add Dave is the hard cost base. We do benefit in some cases from the decline Scott, you are are fully aware we have significant production capacity in China and Mexico and other parts of the Eastern Europe. So we do feel like our position from a supply chain perspective and cost base perspective does enable us to continue to compete with the – of the competitors you referred to.
David M. Cote:
I hope you got the good point Tom just made Scott.
Scott Davis:
Okay.
David M. Cote:
We have great presence in Europe already. We have a big base there about 30,000 employees so we have a base to compete from.
Scott Davis:
Okay fair enough and then guys give us a -- I was encouraged by what you said about non resin, our forecast is actually a little bit higher than your forecast so I hope we are right and you are not right but either way directionally it is the right answer. But can you walk around the world a bit on that and what’s really tough for us to get a feel for as we’ve got great data in the U.S. on non resin and things that we use to contract and once we get outside of the U.S. it starts to get a little bit more difficult. So can you walk us around the world and more in context on maybe your order book or backlog or how you see it playing out in different regions?
Tom Szlosek:
Sure, it will be pretty consistent with how we’re seeing the economy. The U.S. would say I hope you are right also. We’re little lower in our estimation but we think that continues to rise upward and it’s still kind of a reflection of the great recession and you heard us say the time about we shape in, we shape out, slow in, slow out, and non res construction is more of a slow in, slow out. So we think it’s a nice steady gain and that just continues. You can argue there is some offset to that with the oil and gas CAPEX but that has really minimal effect on our non res construction business. In Europe it is consistent with the economy, it is going to be very slow. China probably going to continue to be a mix and interesting phenomenon there because the tier one cities that are still experiencing more of the economic slowdown, they still could use more housing and in the some of the tier 2, 3, 4 cities where GDP is going to be growing faster may have been over built a little bit. So that one is still to be figured out but overall we think it is still a net positive on non res construction. India there could be an awakening in India. I have never seen such excitement in the business community in the 20 plus years that I have been going there so I am actually pretty encouraged about what they could be doing and in fact I am going there tomorrow to be there for the President’s visit as part of this U.S. India CEO forum. And I really think there could be a kickoff there that we’ve all really been waiting for, for at least 10 or 12 years now. And one could turn out to be quite a good positive.
David M. Cote:
The thing I would add to that Dave is, Scott to get your questions on the non resi, I look at our exposure in the products businesses in ACS principally in fire and in some of their commercial business in ECC. As I said in my comments the growth rate had been very nice, mid single digits approaching and double digits in some cases. So you know good trends there and then in building solutions where we have the -- we provide both projects and services in that same space. The order rates and backlog has been good. If you look at the backlog overall for the business it’s up about mid single digit over last year. And its across all the regions. It is actually double digit in Europe but that comes off a lower comparison but overall each of the regions are in that range. So we feel like its heading in the right direction.
Scott Davis:
It’s encouraging. Well have a safe trip to India Dave and give the President my best.
David M. Cote:
Okay.
Scott Davis:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you, good morning gents.
David M. Cote:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Hey, just a couple things back to the energy exposures and the like. On UOP in particular and kind of the capacity that you put in place, do you guys have people contractually locked up there, is there any kind of take or pay or if this thing does kind of unexpectedly to kind of a sharper turn to the worse you are kind of exposed there?
David M. Cote:
Exposure is not that great it helps that we get up front payments on the technology licensing. So yes, if there was a severe downturn of course we feel it but I am not that worried about it right now.
Jeff Sprague:
I mean we are seeing a few refinery cancellations in the U.S. just two this week alone. I was also just wondering on hedges, Tom how those work, was there a P&L expense in 2014 to prep yourself here for 2015 or is that running through on the balance sheet somehow?
David M. Cote:
No, good question Jeff. All of the hedges qualify for mark to market accounting. I am sorry qualify for not mark to market, I am sorry about that. So the impact of the hedge instruments when they settle would be recognized at the same time the underlying items that are being hedged are recognized. So there is nothing unusual, it’s just the extent of the currencies that we’ve gone out and hedged.
Jeff Sprague:
Okay and I was just wondering if you could give a little more specific color on aero spares. When you spoke to kind of aftermarket generally and kind of all in with R&O but what’s going on in spares trends, are you seeing more activities over aeroplanes that might be fuel cost related or anything that kind of stands out?
David M. Cote:
I’d say on the -- it’s a little bit of a dichotomy between ATR and BGA but real strong growth on the ATR side than mid single digit growth on the spares. Its growing on BGA side as well but not as significantly but we do expect that to improve and the ATR trends to continue for 2015.
Jeff Sprague:
Okay, great. Thank you guys.
David M. Cote:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And we’ll take our next question from Steve Tusa with JP Morgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey guys, good morning.
David M. Cote:
Hey Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Mediocre quarter but you now it’s good enough for you Dave. Just on UOP, just remind us how much of that business is new projects and if you were to see an air pocket in new projects what kind of backlog do you have today to kind of give you a little bit of leeway to take action. So for example in the first quarter if you saw that number go down 30%, when would that hit you revenue wise, I mean is that even a 2016 issue or is that more like a 2017 issue? Or is it a 2015 issue?
Tom Szlosek:
I guess I would consider the composition that UOP backlog Steve to kind of answer that question. As I said the backlog has held up very well.
David M. Cote:
But you have a tough time even in the recession I don’t think it’s more that often.
Tom Szlosek:
I think on the capital side a lot of these where we come in on these capital projects is towards the middle or the end and so the most of the capital spent in the ground and we can make it solid and the systems and the technology. So the backlog is holding up. I would also say that if you look at the composition of the backlog it’s in the catalyst, it’s in equipment, and it’s in gas and in all three places its holding up and there is really not any material difference from what we are seeing. So like Dave said I haven’t heard or seen anything in terms of potential declines there.
Steve Tusa:
Right but I guess I am just trying to understand what kind of visibility and timing dynamics play in to your ability to take action if you do see something like that?
David M. Cote:
Well we have time to react not just there but around the company.
Steve Tusa:
Right and your orders and backlog in UOP, and the orders in the fourth quarter and then what your backlog in the year at.
David M. Cote:
I don’t know that we disclose that backlog.
Steve Tusa:
Wasn’t it like 2.8 billion or something like that at the end of the third quarter. I know you guys gave a number your HPS day at November I believe?
David M. Cote:
Not at the top of my head but we can get back to you on that one.
Steve Tusa:
Okay and I guess just one other question on the capital allocation. And any kind of change in philosophy around buybacks versus deals here, anything getting a little more attractive and is the market kind of bumps around?
David M. Cote:
I wouldn’t say our philosophy has changed and that’s why you saw that’s increased dividend greater than the earnings rate this year because that’s consistent with our five year plan of raising the payout ratio over this five year period. So that is going to continue to be a priority for us. And I’d say on the M&A pipeline I am actually feeling better about that then I have in these past few months. I always felt good about it but I’d say the work Roger is doing and its businesses are doing is improving that overall pipeline. Doesn’t mean anything is going to be happening soon. But I can say I feel better about it. I think there is some increasingly let’s say good properties, it would be very good fit with Honeywell if we can make them have them.
Steve Tusa:
Got you, great. Thanks a lot.
David M. Cote:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks good morning.
David M. Cote:
Hey Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Hey Dave, so you mentioned you’re feeling more bullish in the consensus for first time in the five years and everyone is against CFO, hot spot is coming somewhat, it sounds like you might be about to deploy the balance sheet, is that a fair comment, you mentioned the backlog is looking pretty – but just conceptually is that correct?
David M. Cote:
Just like trying to study you’re saying am I getting ready to do something?
Nigel Coe:
Well just give me assets and multiple that comes down a little bit and you got more bullish view on the economy then most competitors?
David M. Cote:
Yes well I would never of course say anything one way or the other there Nigel. I’d just say I am encouraged by the work the guys are doing on the pipeline and the stuff I am seeing. And we’ve got the capability and we are just going to continue to be smart about it.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, that’s fair. And you all see the commissary around done solutions is really encouraging and its because he will be general construction activity. But I am wondering the end, the performance contracting, and the saving part of that circle for you. are you seeing similar trends there and there is bit of debate that’s low energy prices may some of this look pickup pushed out do you agree with that whole process?
David M. Cote:
I guess you would have to say yes, possible but we are not seeing that because it’s not like $50 oil is cheap. It wasn’t that long ago that we were concerned that it could be a recession if it hit 35? So 50:50 is not cheap, it’s cheaper than it was but not cheap.
Nigel Coe:
Okay and you’re similar trends in the before the contracting side of things?
David M. Cote:
Yes orders are good there.
Nigel Coe:
Okay and just a quick one on the hedge accounting term. So the way that works is you take the full impact on the top line and then the mitigation institute the line?
David M. Cote:
Well actually the items that we are hedging and we can get into a complicated accounting lesson here but the items that we are hedging are actually cost items and we are doing it selectively throughout the portfolio. As you can appreciate we have a global supply chain and a lot of currency movement across borders. What we do is focus on hedging the expense items and that enables you to protect the overall P&L but what that leaves open is the top line and so the top line is in a lot of cases exposed to currency movement.
Nigel Coe:
Right and then just quickly, I think you mentioned you hedged down to 110 is that correct Tom?
Tom Szlosek:
No, I said our plan was based on 120, and we’ve hedged at a rate that I think protects that pretty well.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, great. Thanks guys.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thank you, good morning everyone.
David M. Cote:
Hey Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Dave I guess since last time I saw you guys say congratulations to your past just like notwithstanding. But the…?
David M. Cote:
Not reading the post and the news just ahead of the ball so to speak with this.
Joe Ritchie:
Indeed they are and they probably should but moving on to maybe a question on capital allocation I just want to ask Nigel’s question slightly differently valuations have come down especially in oil and gas, has your priority in terms of where you are looking for the next target does that change at all just given clearly they’re more attractive valuations on the oil and gas side today?
David M. Cote:
Well I would say I would backup on it I guess and say that great positions in good industries are still going be kind of a fundamental for us. And secondly pricing makes the difference. So there is a lot of stuff that we’ve liked in a lot of different segments many of which we’ve outlined for you in the past. And we’re going to continue to look at does pricing makes sense, does it makes sense today versus further into the future. And we tend to try to be pretty careful about timing when it goes into even picking of a great position in a good industry.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay that makes sense and I guess given this month you just got back from your top 300 meeting I’d be curious to hear how do you feel about the progress that you guys are making in terms of pivoting the company really to an organic growth story. The margin story is there but really pivoting to organic growth and improving your cash flow conversion over the next few years?
David M. Cote:
Maybe the best way to say it is that coming out of that meeting we had 300 unbelievably energized people even more so than I’ve seen in the past and everybody is really pretty bullish not just about what we’ve done but about where things are going. And HOS Gold and what we are doing to develop and fund the breakthrough initiatives, the 76 enterprises is really energizing everybody around the world, it’s just wonderful to see.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, alright. So pretty confident in the outlook there and I guess maybe one last follow up question on TS. Tom you mentioned that the growth has been really good. Your exposure is predominantly to Europe and you’ve got auto builds that are expected to moderate in 2015. You mentioned in your prepared comments that there has been increasing improvement in the light vehicle gas application. Is your portfolio positioned well for that opportunity and maybe just a little bit of color there?
Tom Szlosek:
Well first of all the and what I am referring to is that the increase penetration turbos on the gas combustion engines on light vehicles that that’s just a trend that we’re seeing in the U.S., China, India everywhere and we are well positioned to take advantage of that. We have got not just manufacturing capacity in each of those places but also your local product development capacity and engineering teams that work with the OEMs in those region. So it feels like we’re pretty well positioned and the growth rates support that.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, thanks guys. I’d get back in queue.
Operator:
And we’ll take our final question from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer & Co.
Christopher Glynn:
Thank you, good morning. Hey, a lot of detail already just drilling into ACS a little bit. It’s nice to see a 6% organic number against the 5% organic comp a year ago in particular, just wondering how you guys are kind of processing attribution here in terms of markets first, execution against VPD and HUE and things like that?
David M. Cote:
Pretty well overall. I think some of the businesses are doing extremely well with it and so the scanning and mobility for example, we have to highlight the gas detection business is done extremely well with it and then I’d say everybody else is kind of in the middle of progress but progress is good everywhere. It is really working well.
Christopher Glynn:
Okay, thanks that was all.
David M. Cote:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Mark Macaluso for any additional or closing remark.
Mark Macaluso:
Thanks Lisa. With that I’d like to hand the call back to Dave for final remarks.
David M. Cote:
Well we’re proud of what we’ve done but even more importantly we are excited about where we are going. Our business model really does work and while I believe that lower oil prices will lead to a slightly better global economy than what’s forecasted currently, will plan conservatively as always to ensure that we do deliver on our commitments to you. We believe we are well positioned to deliver on our five year commitment to you and we look forward to seeing many of you at our March Investor Day where we’ll share more about how and why we’ll get there. And in the mean time the following Sunday in a very American Sport I hope we can all be Patriots. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today’s teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Dave Cote – Chief Executive Officer Tom Szlosek – Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Elena Doom – Vice President, Investor Relations
Analysts:
Scott Davis – Barclays Steve Tusa – JPMorgan Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley Steve Winoker – Bernstein Research Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research Andrew Obin – Bank of America Howard Rubel – Jefferies & Co. John Inch – Deutsche Bank Name - Company
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell’s Q3 2014 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator instructions.) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Elena Doom, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Elena Doom:
Thank you, Leo. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s Q3 2014 Earnings Conference Call. Here with me today are Chairman and CEO Dave Cote and Senior Vice President and CFO Tom Szlosek. Today’s call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of today’s presentation do contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses we see them today. Those elements can change and we would ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10(k) and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for Q3, share with you our outlook for Q4 and provide an initial framework for 2015. And finally we leave time for your questions. So with that I’ll turn the call over to Dave Cote.
Dave Cote:
Good morning, all. As I’m sure you’ve seen by now Honeywell had another terrific quarter with better-than-expected operational performance, and sales, margins and earnings all exceeding our guidance. In the quarter our organic sales growth accelerated to 5%, a continuation of the positive trend we’ve seen throughout the year; and even more encouraging was the fact that we saw organic sales growth broadly across the portfolio in all our segments. It truly was a balanced contribution highlighting great positions in good industries. Our short-cycle order rates continue to trend positive as we saw strong quarters from Energy, Safety and Security, and Transportation Systems, as well as continued improvement in Advanced Materials. Our long cycle businesses are maintaining robust backlogs with strong orders and sales growth this quarter from UOP, Process Solutions and Aerospace, giving us confidence in our outlook beyond this year. Geographically where as you know we are well diversified, we are seeing strength in the US particularly in our residential and industrial markets. As you know we’ve been conservative over the years in our planning assumptions for Europe and I think that’s been a good call. China continues to be a strong market for us both on the short- and long-cycle sides of the portfolio, and we saw double-digit increases this quarter in both the Middle East and India – reinforcing that our focus in high-growth regions is paying off. EPS of $1.47 increased 19% year-over-year or 14% normalized for tax. So another quarter with double-digit EPS growth with earnings coming in above the high end of our guidance range. Our continued progress on the Honeywell operating system or HOS and other key process initiatives are delivering meaningful growth and productivity benefits. We’re seed planting all the time to drive top and bottom line growth. Complementing the balanced portfolio is our relentless focus on new products and technologies which help us to differentiate. Innovation remains the lifeblood of the organization and we continue to win big in the marketplace, and we’ve got some really good stuff to talk about today. We’re really excited about the Gulfstream new 600- and 500-series planes that were announced earlier this week, and we have several innovative Honeywell technologies onboard including our avionics and mechanical portfolios. A sampling includes synthetic vision, wireless connectivity, cockpit avionics, traffic and 3D airport maps, and our APUs and environmental controls. We also have another first – the Gulfstream flight deck called Symmetry will include for the first time ever integrated Honeywell touchscreens that will be used for cockpit systems controls, flight management, communication, check lists and monitoring weather and flight information. This new approach reduces pilot workload while improving communications in a more natural and intuitive way. These new products are part of our company-wide HUE initiative and reflect the most integrated and streamlined flight deck in business aviation. The same with aerospace – in September we announced that Bombardier Business Aircraft will be the launch business aircraft manufacturer for Honeywell Aerospace’s Jetwave Ka-Band Satellite Connectivity System. Our Jetwave hardware exclusively supports Inmarsat’s forthcoming Jet ConneX service which when it goes live in 2015 will provide bus. jet passengers with high-speed in-flight connectivity virtually anywhere in the world. To put it in perspective, this will allow passengers to video conference, send and receive large files, and access streaming content while on the move by enabling them to access Inmarsat’s service. This exclusive high-speed connectivity will also enable us to differentiate our cockpits and mechanical systems through innovative data sharing and services, making aircraft and pilots more efficient. In our Scanning and Mobility business we’re working with the United States Postal Service, one of the largest global mail carriers, to deploy more than 75,000 units of our next-generation mobile delivery device by year’s end. This custom-branded mobile device is based on our market-leading mobile computing technology, the Dolphin 99ex – clever name, right? Used by postal carriers and mail processing employees, the device improves critical activities related to making on-time deliveries including reliable tracking information, proof of delivery for Priority Mail and postal route navigation support. We’re also excited about the growth we’re seeing from Solstice, our new line of refrigerants, insulation materials, aerosols and solvents that have global warming potential lower than CO2. In September at a White House event we announced that we will increase production of Solstice products and as a result will drive a 50% reduction in our annual production of high-GWP hydrofluorocarbons or HFCs on a CO2 equivalent basis prior to 2020. We project that the use of our Solstice products will eliminate more than 350 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent by 2025. That’s equal to removing 70 million cars from the road for one year. And in mobile air conditioning we’ve had significant wins from global customers and expect our sales to continue to ramp, as Solstice helps customers meet CAP A standards in the US and the new Mac regulation in Europe which goes into full effect in 2017. So with the increased order book for Solstice applications and the new capacity coming online, Fluorines is positioned for terrific growth in 2015. If I take a look at where we stand for the year with just about two months left, we’re confident in our ability to deliver at the high end of the guidance we set for this year last December. As a reminder, we’ve stuck by our sales and earnings outlook all year, steadily increasing the low end of our pro forma EPS guidance to reflect the strong year-to-date performance. And we’re doing it again this quarter, raising the low end of our 2014 EPS guidance by $0.05 to $5.50 to $5.555. That’s up 11% to 12% year-over-year – not bad at all. So turning to 2015, and you’ll hear more from Tom on this, we’re going to continue to remain conservative on the global economy. We haven’t counted on much from the macro environment historically and so far that has been a good call. We’re confident in our continued outperformance because one, our portfolio is aligned to favorable trends like energy efficiency, clean energy generation, safety and security, urbanization, and customer productivity that continue to trend positive. And two, we have been conservative on costs. We’re in the process of completing our annual operating plans and overall we see prospects for another good year in 2015. As I mentioned already we have a very healthy backlog and see positive order and win rates across the portfolio. We’re also expecting another year of margin expansion. We’re going to continue executing on our key strategies for growth including penetration of high-growth regions and sustaining our investments in high ROI CAPEX and new products and technologies, while maintaining our cost discipline and ensuring we deliver the savings from restructuring projects that we’ve funded for the last few years. Our strength of execution has led Honeywell in the past to strong earnings growth and another year of outperformance in 2015, remaining on track to the long-term targets we gave you back in March. So with that I’ll turn it over to Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Okay, thanks Dave and good morning. On Slide 4 let me walk you through the financial results for Q3 – as you can see, some very strong numbers and every metric came in at or above the guidance we provided in July. Sales of $10.1 billion were up 5% on a reported and organic basis and the growth was pervasive throughout the portfolio. We’ll dive into some of the business specifics in a moment but we’re encouraged by the improvement in organic sales growth as we’ve progressed throughout the year. Remember, it was 1% in Q1, 3% in Q2 and now 5% in Q3. On a regional basis organic sales were up 5% in the US, 1% in Europe, 4% in China and double digits in a number of our other high-growth regions. In Europe we have experienced stable growth rates in the first three quarters of the year, modest growth rates which are very consistent with what we saw in 2012 and 2013. We are planning more of the same for Europe in Q4 and into 2015. As for China, the growth was impacted by our deliberate shift of resins and chemicals exports to other parts of Southeast Asia, so excluding that our China sales would have been up 7% in the quarter. On a similar basis, we expect China to grow sales faster than GDP for the full year. Segment profit growth and margin expansion were both strong in the quarter. Segment profit increased 9% while segment margins expanded 70 basis points to 17.4%, which by the way is 20 basis points more than our guidance. We had profit growth and margin expansion in each of our three SBGs, so again, a balanced contribution across the portfolio. The businesses benefited from higher volume in the quarter, and productivity continued to be a key driver of margin expansion. These elements more than offset inflation and our continued investments for growth in sales, marketing, and product development. Items below segment profit were mostly as anticipated and so our net income increased 14% normalized for tax – not bad paired with a 5% sales increase. Also we funded $21 million of restructuring projects in the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to approximately $120 million. The Q3 tax rate came in at 24.6% versus 27.2% in 2013 and versus the 26.5% we planned. There are a number of moving parts that sometimes make the tax rates vary quarter by quarter, however we continue to expect a tax rate of 26.5% for the full year consistent with our initial planning. So reported earnings per share of $1.47 in the quarter, up 19% versus the prior year. Normalizing for tax, EPS would have been $1.43, up 14% which is $0.01 above the high end of the guidance we provided in July. Even with essentially flat share count we once again achieved double-digit EPS driven primarily by stronger sales and segment margins. Finally, free cash flow of $1 billion in the quarter was 12% higher than 2013 despite an approximate 28% increase in CAPEX investments. Overall another strong quarter, giving us confidence heading into the last three months of the year. Moving to Slide 5 we’re looking at Aerospace results which as you will recall include Transportation Systems in both years. Aerospace sales were flat in the quarter on a reported basis, reflecting the friction materials divestiture, but were up 3% organically which was at the high end of our guidance range. Organic sales growth accelerated in both commercial aero and defense and space while Transportation Systems saw continued strong top line organic growth. Aerospace margins expanded by 150 basis points driven by productivity net of inflation, where material productivity continues to be a significant driver; also commercial excellence and the favorable impact of the friction materials divestiture. Starting with commercial OE, sales increased 5% with good growth in both air transport and regional as well as business and general aviation. In ATR we saw the continued benefit of higher OE build rates while business aviation saw increased engine shipments coming with certifications on the Bombardier Challenger 350 and Embraer Legacy 500. Commercial aircraft sales were up 2% in the quarter with strong spares growth in ATR. ATR had double-digit spares growth with increased mechanical and electrical demand across the major regions. We’re expecting the ATR aftermarket growth to be in line with flight hours in Q4 and would characterize current airline buying activity as stable to modestly better. The ATR spares growth was offset by anticipated lower repair and overall activity and a decline in BGA RMUs; that is retrofit modifications and upgrades. You will recall that RMU sales growth has been on a tear for the last couple of years, making comparisons to prior periods challenging. We’re still excited by this business and continue to invest to develop new offerings. Defense and space sales returned to growth in the quarter, increasing 3% and continued the improvement we’ve seen throughout 2014. You might recall we were down 8% in Q1 and 1% in Q2 so the trend as we predicted is improving. International programs continued to drive growth with double-digit sales increases, while our US DOD sales grew modestly. And government services declines continued to moderate on a year-over-year basis. Transportations Systems sales declined 10% on a reported basis, again reflecting the friction materials divestiture, but were up 4% organically. Once again we saw strong turbo volume growth across our three largest regions – Europe, North America, and China. And in each of these regions our volume growth outpaced auto production. Two-thirds of the volume growth was attributable to light vehicle gas applications where we continued to see increased global penetration. We also saw our European commercial vehicle volume more than double in the quarter as we continued to benefit from new programs following the implementation of Euro-6 emission regulations in the region. On Slide 6 we are looking at ACS results for the quarter. Sales were up 9% on a reported basis and 4% on an organic basis – again at the high end of our guidance. The difference in the two rates principally reflects the contributions of Intermec. ESS sales, so the products businesses, were up 6% organically, continuing the trend of progressively stronger growth we have seen in each quarter in 2014. It’s hard to single out one business in the ESS portfolio because the growth was very broad, but scanning mobility and industrial safety celebrated the most. ESS benefited from new product introductions; higher US residential sales which benefited both ECC and Security; US non-residential improvement in ECC, fire and industrial safety; and further penetration in high-growth regions particularly in China where ESS once again had double-digit sales growth in the quarter. Building Solutions and Distribution or BSD sales were up 2% with continued strength in the Americas fire and security distribution businesses offset by flat sales in building solutions. We are encouraged however as building solutions has seen an increase in North American service and energy retrofit orders. Both the global solutions backlog and service banks are up handsomely from the same point last year, supporting our outlook for sales acceleration in 2015. In the non-residential sector the trends are similar to the first half of the year. In the ESS products businesses that serve non-residential, we’ve continued to see modest growth in commercial products throughout Q3. However, we did see an acceleration of growth on the industrial side with strength in the Americas business particularly. We anticipate further improvement in Q4 and into 2015 on the commercial and industrial products side. As for building solutions, I mentioned that the backlog and service banks are up year-over-year and we continue to expect energy efficiency projects to support global acceleration into next year. ACS margins expanded 40 basis points to 15.9% in the quarter and were up 50 basis points excluding the minor dilution from M&A. ACS continues to benefit from higher volume, commercial excellence and productivity net of inflation while also continuing to invest for future growth. One such investment area is connected homes where we are quite excited by the roadmap of future, integrated offerings in heating, air conditioning, security and lighting controls. Already we have more than a million internet-connected devices. Moving to Slide 7 for Performance Materials and Technology, PMT sales were $2.5 billion, up 7% organically and were above the high end of our guidance, driven by stronger-than-expected results in both UOP and Process Solutions. UOP sales increased 8% in the quarter driven by increased catalyst and gas processing sales reflecting a continued strong refining, petrochemical and gas market. We continue to see strong orders trends in gas processing particularly at Thomas Russell. At the end of Q3 UOP’s backlog stood at $2.6 billion driven by a strong customer adoption of new technologies and investments in new capacity. In Process Solutions we are encouraged by the accelerated growth of 5% driven by our Advanced Solutions Software and Services businesses as well as higher sales in field products. High-growth regions remain a huge priority for Process Solutions and they delivered double-digit sales growth from China, India and the Middle East. Borders growth also continued at a strong pace, continuing the Q2 trend, and the HPS backlog is up nicely over the same point in 2013. As we’ll preview later on we’re expecting the sales improvement in the second half of this year to continue in 2015 for HPS. Advanced Materials sales increased 7% in the quarter, also continuing the trend we’ve seen throughout 2014. We’ve seen volume increases across the businesses with particular strength in foreign products which was up double digits, driven by a new low-global-warming potential product. Segment margins at PMT were up 20 basis points to 17.5% consistent with our expectations, driven by higher volume and productivity net of inflation partially offset by price raw headwinds in chemicals and continued investments for growth. HPS converted particularly well, continuing its successful business transformation and benefiting from the growth I mentioned in higher-margin Advanced Solutions Software and Services. UOP continues to also deliver outstanding profitability. So now I’m on Slide 8 with a preview of Q4. We’re expecting sales of $10.3 billion to $10.4 billion, approximately flat reported or up 3% on an organic basis. And again, this assumes a Euro rate of $1.25 for the quarter. As a reminder, we’re facing a tougher set of comps in Q4 as organic sales were up 5% in Q4 2013 versus only 1% in Q3 2013. Segment margins for Q4 are expected to be up approximately 120 basis points with pro forma earnings in the range of $1.37 to $1.42 per share, up 10% to 15% versus the prior year. As a reminder, we’re still planning a full year 2014 tax rate of 26.5%, so that implies the Q4 tax rate to be approximately 28.8%. Our Aerospace sales on a reported basis are expected to be down approximately 3% reflecting the year-over-year absence of friction materials in the quarter. On an organic basis sales are expected to be up approximately 2%, and as a reminder, in Q4 2013 Aero recognized a significant IP litigation settlement resulting in a royalty gain of $63 million in Defense and Space that was offset by OEM payments in BGA. Both of these items were included and therefore netted out in sales and segment profit at the Aerospace level last year. In Q4 Commercial OE sales are expected to be up mid-teens on a reported basis, and that’s mid-single-digit excluding the year-over-year impact I mentioned from the higher BGA OEM payments. The growth is driven by the favorable trend in demand for high-value business jet platforms where we have significant new engine content. Commercial aftermarket sales are expected to be up low-single-digit in the quarter with an improvement in airline and business jet repair and overhaul activity as evidenced by the increase we’ve seen in shop receipts. However this strength will be partially offset by more modest spares growth driven by declines in BGA RMU activity that I mentioned earlier. Defense and space sales are expected to be up slightly, excluding the impact of the royalty gain in Q4 2013 I discussed earlier. In Transportation Systems we’re expecting sales to be approximately flat on an organic basis primarily due to challenging comparisons to prior year. You’ll recall that in Q4 2013 TS was up 15%. We’re expecting Transportation Systems to have good volume growth in Q1 2015 driven primarily by new launches entering the market. As for Aerospace margins we expect an increase of approximately 200 basis points in Q4 driven by significant productivity improvements across the portfolio and commercial excellence. Continued focus on driving productivity and direct material costs and the benefits from functional transformation are helping us to support the growth investments we’re making in the business as well as to drive the improvement in profitability. For ACs sales are expected to be up approximately 4% on an organic basis excluding an approximate 2% headwind from FX. We expect both ESS and BSD to grow in the low- to mid-single digit range on an organic basis, supported by the trends we’re seeing in our short-cycle order rates. This is also supported by continued growth in our projects backlog and the service bank in Billing Solutions that we mentioned earlier. ACS margins are expected to be up approximately 60 basis points with continued benefits from productivity net of inflation and commercial excellence, while accelerating investments for growth in new product areas such as connected homes and in high-growth regions. In PMT sales are expected to be up approximately 2% on an organic basis. The strong and improving growth rates we have seen throughout the year across the PMT portfolio including in Q4 are being temporarily offset by the previously signaled decline in UOP sales for Q4 in the range of 8% to 9%. And to remind you we had an exceptionally strong Q4 2013 for UOP where sales were up 17% organically – needless to say a difficult comparison. On the other hand, a higher mix of licensing revenue in Q4 will result in a tailwind to UOP and PMT margins. In HPS the favorable orders and backlog growth will support Q4 sales acceleration which will also carry into 2015. HPS margin expansion will also continue. In Advanced Materials we anticipate another quarter of broad sales growth, however Resins and Chemicals will continue to face lower margin rates exacerbated by planned plant outages and price raw pressures. Overall PMT margins in the quarter are expected to be up approximately 60 basis points versus 2013 driven by UOP and HPS. Let me move to Slide 9 where I’d like to refresh everyone on our full-year outlook for 2014. As you know we take a conservative view on sales expectations. This approach continues to serve us well because it forces us to also be prudent on our cost structure, so if sales grow better than our conservative expectations we tend to do very well. I think 2014 demonstrates this. Our sales are coming in a little better than where we planned whereas we’ve raised our EPS guidance three times during the year. As Dave indicated we are taking EPS guidance up a third time, this time to a range of $5.50 to $5.55, up 11% to 12% over 2013 – so another year of double-digit earnings growth. This is our planning model and we’ll continue to follow it. As you see on the page we’ve tightened our sales range to $40.3 billion to $40.4 billion, up approximately 3% to 4% versus the prior year. And as for segment margins we’re expecting the full year to be approximately 17% or up 70 basis points over 2013. Again, this puts us at or above the high end of the sales and margin guidance we shared with you last December. The full year outlook by individual segment is similar to what we shared in July. Considering the performance year-to-date we continue to feel confident in the segment margins for each business – 19.5% for Aero, 15.0% for ACS and 18.0% for PMT
Elena Doom:
Thanks, Tom. Leo, we will now take our first question.
Operator:
Very good. The floor is now open for questions. (Operator instructions.) Our first question is coming from Scott Davis of Barclays.
Scott Davis – Barclays :
Hi, good morning guys. Thanks for helping the market go up today. We needed it.
Dave Cote:
[laughs] Yeah, I agree.
Scott Davis – Barclays :
I’ve got to give you crap about something, Dave – you know I can’t go a conference call without criticizing you. But 16 slides and not a word on M&A or buybacks or any cash reinvestment. You’ve had a nice pull back here – what’s holding you back from buying back some shares?
Dave Cote:
Well, first of all I don’t think that we ever provide a chart commenting on that so it’s not unusual.
Scott Davis – Barclays :
No, I know. [laughter]
Dave Cote:
I guess 19%, 14% depending upon how you want to look at it doesn’t suffice so I understand. But at the end of the day our strategy’s still the same – it’s to stay opportunistic on both the M&A side and the share repurchase side, and I think M&A conditions are starting to improve with the kind of pull back we’ve seen. So who knows how things develop, I’m not promising anything. You never know where things are going to go but at the end of the day times are getting better to buy so we’ll see what happens.
Scott Davis – Barclays :
Dave, what is the ideal size of transactions? I mean in the past you’ve done some pretty interesting deals and some of them a little bit big. Would you be willing to go a little larger in size where there’s some value now?
Dave Cote:
Well you know, I’ve always said I never say never on doing anything large, so we’ll say I don’t know, $5 billion to $10 billion. But at this date we’ve never done it either – it doesn’t mean we won’t but I’ve never done it. We still continue to maintain a very active pipeline of projects from small stuff to big stuff and we’re going to keep doing that, and who knows? Maybe someday something bigger strikes. In the meantime we still keep looking at stuff that’s more bite-size, more manageable. And it’s tough to predict where these things go. As [Ann Madden] keeps reminding us you kiss 100 frogs to find, I guess in my case the princess. So it’s just one of those things that we’re going to keep looking at and keep working.
Scott Davis – Barclays :
And just lastly non-res has been a bit of a mystery this year but it looks like you made some positive commentary there. I mean do you see projects as finally breaking ground where you’ve got some visibility that we can make some shipments? And this quarter was pretty good, actually.
Dave Cote:
Yeah, I would say you’ve been hearing me say now for over a year I think that we’ve been seeing increased quote activity but no results from it. We’re finally starting to see some slight improvements in growth rates from what we’ve seen in some of our other businesses. I’d like to think that that portends a trend. I’m not ready to declare that yet but I do believe the time has come. And for me part of this is just the aftermath of the recession. We said at the time how you went in was likely how you were going to come out, and it was stuff that went in quickly, like aircraft spares came out quickly. Stuff that went in slowly like non-res construction has been slow to come out, and I think we’re finally at that point where we’re in the kind of slow-to-come-out range. I don’t expect a boom but I still think it’s going to be a tailwind for us.
Scott Davis – Barclays :
Good. Well, well done, guys. Thanks and I’ll pass it on.
Dave Cote:
I’m sorry, Scott, what was that? [laughter]
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan :
Hi, good morning. So just on UOP I think people are obviously a little bit worried about what’s happened with oil prices here. Can you maybe just get into specifics on what percentage of UOP specifically is kind of oil price exposed if you will? I mean I know maybe there’s some offshore projects that they may be involved in, FPSOs, I’m not sure – just want to get some further clarity on that. And I totally understand the positive long-term trends but UOP is obviously one that people worry about every day. So just maybe if you can give us a little bit of color there.
Dave Cote:
Steve, the last thing I’d ever expect from you is a bouquet but not even a flower or a rose petal or something? [laughter] Not even a little bit?
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan :
Solid quarter I guess. [laughter]
Dave Cote:
Well thank you, I’ll take what I can get.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan :
You’re doing okay. I never worry about you, you’re doing fine.
Dave Cote:
[laughs] Here’s a reasonable way to think about it, is if we take a look at our overall sales about 15% of it is represented by oil & gas in total. So it’s not just UOP but it includes Process. If you broke out that 15 points, 12 points of it are in the mid- to downstream segments so yeah, there is some upstream but not a huge amount. And when we think about oil prices, Tom was talking about some of this – that pump prices tend to be sticky in both directions and when oil prices are going down that’s a good thing for refiners. So all of those projects, especially if the money’s already been spent, we really don’t see it having that much of an impact over the next two or three years. Most of those projects are still going to get done. We also think over the long term there’s some natural floors here that exist and there’s been a big increase in oil production over the past year. It’s up something like 3% in total with a big chunk of it driven by the US. But there’s a natural floor that occurs at about $80 when you look at shale oil production where a lot of capacity just goes offline so it gets supply and demand much more balanced. So overall I really don’t see it having that much of an impact to UOP. It might have some; there might be some projects that go a little bit sideways. But overall very manageable is the way I’d think about it. Tom, I don’t know if there’s anything you want to add?
Tom Szlosek:
Just there’s discussion of cancellations and we’ve thoroughly assessed our backlog and we’re really not seeing anything. As Dave said there’s a natural floor, and maybe if you get significantly below that you might see more activity. But the only impacts are minor delays in project financing but it really hasn’t shown any impact on the backlog.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan :
And then Dave, one last question following up on Scott’s question about buybacks
Dave Cote:
No, not really. I would say, going back to what I said before we’re going to stay opportunistic. We have a lot of faith in our ability to continue growing and I think we certainly demonstrated that again this quarter. And when it comes to both repurchases and M&A we’re going to stay opportunistic, and having money gives you opportunities. Once the money’s gone the opportunities aren’t there anymore. So we’re going to continue to drive really strong earnings growth especially versus our peers with or without a buyback. And it’s always an opportunity for us.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan :
Great, thanks.
Dave Cote:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley :
Thanks, good morning. It sounds like buybacks are a hot topic this morning. [laughter] So I won’t go there but I do want to switch to the ’15 framework if you’d like, and thanks for the detail – it’s really helpful. And I guess the top line will be what it’ll be to what extent by the macro, but as we think about your margin expansion and doing what you can control – and obviously this year is very strong with a 30-weekish top line year-to-date. But next year, based on the construction pipeline, do you think you can be in line with the 70 bps long-term framework or do you think you can do better than that? Or how should we think about the OM next year?
Dave Cote:
Well first of all, Nigel, same thing – not even a rose petal?
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley :
No, no, Dave – great quarter.
Dave Cote:
[laughter] Not even a splash of toilet water, something?
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley :
I’m splashing away here.
Dave Cote:
[laughter] Well first off it’s too early for us to declare. We’re in the middle of a planning cycle and we just don’t do that. So in December is when we talk about it, but overall I think you can expect something that’s consistent with our five-year plan because as you recall, in the five-year plan we were pretty conservative on what we expected over five years from the global economy. I guess fortunately and unfortunately – the fortunate side is we planned for it that way so we’re prepared. The unfortunate part is it’s turning out that way. We kind of hoped that there might be a nice surprise at some point. But we’ll talk a lot more about it in December on Tom’s call. What date is that call?
Tom Szlosek:
December 16th.
Dave Cote:
December 16th and we’ll talk about it more then. But you can expect something that’s consistent with our five-year plan where you’ll look at it and go “Oh, they’re still on track.”
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley :
Okay, that’s fair, thanks Dave. And then one of the real hallmarks of Honeywell over the past decade has been growing top line while keeping fixed costs flat or in some cases down. This year SG&A’s been growing quite a bit ahead of sales and I’m wondering, there’s obviously a lot of moving parts in SG&A and COGS but how much of that increase in SG&A is driven – and I’m thinking here about initiatives like HUE?
Dave Cote:
Well quite honestly I don’t really look at the SG&A line all that much so I should describe it more as how I do look at it. On the sales side we have been adding feet on the street when you look at high-growth regions and that’s one of the reasons that you’re seeing such good performance there, because if you have great products and services and one guy covering a country you’re just not going to sell as much. You’ve got to have somebody who can be out there and represent. I do know on the G&A side, that’s going down because a lot of that is part of our functional transformation – so you think about Legal, Finance, IT, HR. All that stuff is going down consistent with functional transformation. So all the stuff that we’ve talked about is continuing to happen and I suppose we can get a better SG&A answer for you.
Elena Doom:
I’m happy to help out with that.
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley :
Okay, thanks. And just a quick one for Tom perhaps
Dave Cote:
You are correct – it is new. And I’ll turn it over to Tom to discuss further.
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, I mean it’s at or around current rates now, Nigel. That’s essentially the way to think of it. So if you think about the current exchange rates for TS it essentially locks us in to what you see.
Dave Cote:
But there’s no mark to market impact.
Tom Szlosek:
No, it’s pure hedge accounting. If the mark on the hedge goes to [below translation] or goes below the line outside of operating profits it serves to offset that.
Dave Cote:
Because at the end of the day the change in the thought process has been, historically I’ve been pretty adamant about never hedging on translation just because I think over the course of twenty years you’re basically out the cost of hedging. This year I’d say well, there’s always the possibility it could go the other way because these things are unpredictable. The prospects of it going to $1.10, $1.20 I think is very real and we looked at it and said it’s better to say, protect ourselves on half or so of our exposure and forego a bit of that upside just to protect ourselves on the downside in what could be a tougher macro again. And that was the thought process behind it and we were able to do it with a very good understanding of what the impact was month by month. So we were able to avoid having to use that marked to market approach.
Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley :
Great, thanks guys.
Dave Cote:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Winoker of Bernstein Research.
Steve Winoker – Bernstein Research :
Hey, thanks, good morning. And Dave, I’m going to save you the pain of soliciting another compliment and just say good quarter to all the guys inside the SBGs, okay? We’ll leave it there.
Dave Cote:
Thank you, Steve. As you’ve probably noticed I’m a very needy person.
Steve Winoker – Bernstein Research :
I do and as long as that makes you keep delivering I have no problem with that.
Dave Cote:
[laughs] It helps, it helps.
Steve Winoker – Bernstein Research :
So a few questions here. I guess one, I hate to keep coming back to the capital deployment but I also remember you often talking about telling investors “Now that we’ve gone through the turnaround some years ago what are we going to do with the cash? Don’t worry, we’re not going to blow the cash.” To the extent that you are ramping up M&A and Roger’s out there looking pretty aggressively I’m sure as well, what are kind of the minimum financial hurdles we should still think about for kind of mid- to large-size deals that you’re thinking about in terms of return on capital or otherwise – the stuff that Ann would actually let pass through, for example?
Dave Cote:
Our hurdles are not going to change and they’re the same ones that we’ve used for 13 years, and that’s accretive in the second year, IRR clearly above the cost of capital – so think of it in the 11%, 12% range; and ROI above 10% in the fifth year and that’s all-in, so that includes all the amortization and everything else so it’s a more difficult hurdle than people might think. And at the end of the day regardless of the size we’ll be able to demonstrate 6% to 8% of sales as cost synergies because I don’t want to count on any sales synergies as you know, and I want to make sure that we stay disciplined as hell in terms of our deployment so we’re never going to panic. And the nice thing about it is we have a terrific organic growth prospect. So it’s not like I have to do M&A in order [deliver] and that’s why we construct our five-year plan the way we do, so that you would look at it and go “Geez, these numbers are awfully good whether they do M&A or not.” But I never want to feel panicked and we don’t. So you can expect that whatever we do, whatever we do end up doing – whether it’s a bunch of small stuff, something big, various big things depending on how you want to classify it – it’s all going to meet that criteria.
Steve Winoker – Bernstein Research :
Okay. And Tom, a little bit about how you’re starting to think about pension. I’m sure you’ll go into more detail in December but given rates, direction and all of that, how should we think about sensitivities in the current accounting structure?
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, good question, Steve. If you drew the line today for pension expense considering even the most recent market developments and the low interest rate environment, we’d be about flat year-over-year for pension expense. As I said right now no foreseeable contributions from a cash perspective in the next couple periods. Marked to market-wise for 2014 as you know, if there is one we would do it in Q4. Right now again based on the assumptions as we understand them today, at least for our major plans – the US plans – they would not be a marked to market.
Steve Winoker – Bernstein Research :
Okay. And if I can just sneak one more in, which is in UOP those CAPEX investments, how do you see those continuing to play out through the next year?
Tom Szlosek:
Well in terms of the quantity of the CAPEX, we peak in 2015 in terms of the expenditure level. But as you know starting in the second half of this year we’ve got some of that capacity coming online this year mostly for the Solstice product portfolio and a little bit in the UOP catalyst. But those plants as we’ve said over and over again have pretty much hit the ground running at full capacity and so when you look at the growth rates you’re seeing in PMT, that 7%, that’s a reflection of being able to put that capacity to work right away.
Steve Winoker – Bernstein Research :
Okay great, thanks.
Dave Cote:
And the projects are on track which is always a great place to be when you’ve got full plants.
Steve Winoker – Bernstein Research :
Okay, thanks a lot.
Dave Cote:
See you, Steve.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research :
Good morning. I’ve been brushing up on my accent – Dave, I think it was a pretty good “quah-tah.”
Dave Cote:
[laughs] I think it was wicked good myself.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research :
[laughs] Just a couple little clean-up things
Dave Cote:
I would say it’s still a little too early to declare on any of that – we’ll do more of that in December. I’d say you can expect that UOP’s going to continue to do well.
Elena Doom:
And I’d add it’s a big driver for this incremental growth in UOP versus the growth rate we’re seeing in 2014.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research :
And then on international defense where you’re seeing some acceleration it sounds like, can you give a little color on countries or programs where that’s actually happening?
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, Middle East, Israel, Turkey, some of the regions that you might expect to have the funding and where there’s activity; a little bit in India as well.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research :
And this one might be a little bit in the weeds but kind of getting into fluorines and the like, with your transition coming in the US here really at the beginning of the year do you see any noise in Q4 around that? Do you see signs that people are prebuilding, just anything to be aware of there?
Tom Szlosek:
No. I mean we’re really excited about fluorines overall and the transition that we’ve got going, but nothing significant from that perspective.
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research :
Yeah, and then just a quick one and I’ll jump off
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, I think Dave is telling me not to share anything until December 16th, which I’m going to follow my boss’ orders. [laughter]
Jeff Sprague – Vertical Research :
Alright, sounds good. Thanks, guys.
Dave Cote:
See you, Jeff.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin – Bank of America :
Yes, hi, how are you guys? Just to clarify on Advanced Materials, so why is it not growing faster in ’15 versus ’14 given this is where the CAPEX is going and Solstice is ramping up? Sorry, and congratulations by the way.
Dave Cote:
Ah, thank you – I thought I was going to have to beg again.
Andrew Obin – Bank of America :
No. [laughter]
Elena Doom:
So we are seeing good growth in Advanced Materials, Andrew. I mean in the quarter Advanced Materials grew 7% organically so I think what we’re saying is at this point the continuation of that type of mid-single-digit growth rate is what we’re expecting for next year given it’s still early days.
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, just a reminder on how to read that chart
Dave Cote:
Besides if we had a whole page of green arrows you’d be asking how could we possibly believe the environment to be that good.
Andrew Obin – Bank of America :
I appreciate that. And just a comment on BSD, you sort of commented that you’re seeing non-res accelerating. Could you just give more color on what specifically you’re saying, what areas because it would be really good news if we are seeing non-res cycle pickup.
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, I think it’s been moderate. I don’t want to overplay the pickup on the commercial piece of the non-res but we are seeing a significant amount of quotation activity in the US and particularly on the federal side of the energy vertical. The municipalities and other institutions are also coming along but overall the orders are starting to pick up. We’re expecting good orders, [a story of performance] in Q4 that should serve us well in 2015.
Andrew Obin – Bank of America :
Terrific, thank you.
Dave Cote:
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Howard Rubel of Jefferies.
Howard Rubel – Jefferies & Co. :
Good morning. Thank you very much.
Dave Cote:
Hey Howard, thank you.
Howard Rubel – Jefferies & Co. :
Well no, thank you, Dave. I mean numbers like this, you know, only come from Honeywell.
Dave Cote:
Now that’s what I’m talking about, Howard, thank you!
Howard Rubel – Jefferies & Co. :
Boy this is really amazing, the suck-ups we’re doing here but anyhow…
Dave Cote:
Only if it’s deserved. [laughter]
Howard Rubel – Jefferies & Co. :
Exactly, you know that. But to talk about a couple of business fundamentals, talk about what you’ve done to make Intermec work right. It looks like it had a very nice top line contribution. The US Postal Service piece of business looks like it’s market share pickup and when I walk into Starbucks I see a Honeywell logo. So what’s gone there that’s set you apart because this is a difficult market?
Dave Cote:
I was going to say we appreciate you picking up on that one because we’re quite proud of everything we’ve done there, not just by Intermec but by really pulling together several players in the industry and creating a “One Honeywell” approach that’s really made a difference. And they all brought different technologies and perspectives whether it was Hand-Held, Metrologic or Intermec. And I think our guys, starting with Darius the leader originally and then John [Waldren] who’s in there now have done a great job pulling all that together and rationalizing it so that we expanded our offerings, pushed the technology more so than others have, including what we’ve been able to do with Voice or Vocollect coming out of the Intermec acquisition; and getting better coverage – just being out there and being able to tell our story with feet on the street in a way that we weren’t able to before. So it’s really just a matter of running it better and taking advantage of the technologies that we brought together and running it better.
Howard Rubel – Jefferies & Co. :
So when we look at the Intermec numbers year-on-year they’re up, it’s hard to totally tell but it looks like high single digits. I know that’s only one part of everything you’re doing there.
Tom Szlosek:
That’s right, Howard. And I know we’re getting the, as Dave said the technologies are very strong and they’re complementary to what exists in the Scanning Mobility business. We didn’t have printing; we didn’t have voice. We did have mobile computers but Intermec had a very strong platform and so we’ve been able to integrate all three of those product lines nicely and to accelerate the growth there. And as you alluded to the performance against what our expectations were has been tremendous and when we look at the headline multiple versus where we are today it’s quite remarkable.
Dave Cote:
It’s also good, Howard, you know how we never count on sales synergies which always provides a nice upside. And we’ve gotten a pile of them here.
Howard Rubel – Jefferies & Co. :
Thank you. And then one just final question, sort of I’m not sure if I’m going to ask it right, but as you look at new products that you’re introducing with the R&D spend – because in each of the business units you’ve talked about there being, I’ll call it growth investments. How are you sort of measuring the premium you’re getting on the new products relative to the spend you’re making? How fast do you decide that gee, this is working really well, let’s put more in; or no, it’s not working very well and let’s scale it back?
Dave Cote:
That’s something that we defer to each of the businesses to make those kinds of decisions, and each of them has their kind of kiss-or-kill approach to all of these projects. And some of it’s by country, some of it’s by business so they’re constantly looking at making sure that we get the biggest bang for the R&D buck. And I would say it’s one of the things that I look at and say across the company we still have opportunity for. Sometimes we’ll have a project that we’ll look at and say “Geez, this is going to cause sales to grow 8%, that’s great, let’s do it,” but we really don’t push ourselves because it might be a business that could be growing 20% - we’re just not thinking big enough for it. On the other side there’s still projects that we linger with too long or we focus on little stuff when we should be conglomerating some of that and focusing on something bigger. So I’d say we do a good job overall, certainly a hell of a lot better than we used to, but I still see more upside to being more disciplined on that in every business.
Howard Rubel – Jefferies & Co. :
Thank you for your help today.
Dave Cote:
We hope. We’ll see what 4:00 shows.
Howard Rubel – Jefferies & Co. :
[laughs] Thank you, Dave.
Operator:
Our final question comes from John Inch of Deutsche Bank.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Thank you. Last but not least, hi guys. So congrats, Dave.
Dave Cote:
Oh, thank you.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
You’re welcome. So Tom, you gave us the ’15 I think restructuring tailwinds of $125 million. Just to try and make sure we have the framework could you tell us what, remind us what your spending expectations are for ’14 and then savings that would have been from ’13 and ’14; and then what you expect to spend in ’15 that dovetails with the $125 million?
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, I believe the actual savings from ’13 to ’14 is similar – it’s in that $125 million, $150 million range for 2015. In terms of the cash spend I think for 2014 it’d be about $200 million.
Elena Doom:
We had an elevated Q1 restructuring charge obviously with the sale of the B/E Aero shares. But it’s probably, maybe for just the repositioning portion only it’s maybe more in the $140 million, $150 million range in terms of spend. Tom, do you want to comment on next year?
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, I think for next year I would expect, I mean our unspent backlog as of the end of Q3 is about $350 million, a little less than that. And I would expect that we would spend $150 million to $200 million of that (inaudible).
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Yeah, I mean that’s where I was going with the B/E Aerospace share gains. I mean is this, all else equal are we going to see some sort of a spending tailwind if you will, or absence of spending that could be actually material or impactful? Or perhaps you’re thinking about some other offset because you guys are pretty good at you know, doing some matching opportunistically.
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah, so John, I thought you were asking about cash before.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Well, I was kind of asking about both, yeah.
Tom Szlosek:
Okay. So right now as I said our expense, our P&L expense of restructuring is about $120 million and we spent the cash that we had indicated. We’re always looking at opportunities. Every quarter we review with Dave; every business reviews a portfolio of restructuring opportunities just like we do for M&A opportunities. And we look at them in a disciplined way. We look at the paybacks, we look at the ROIs and so forth, and yes, it’s true – we tend to look for opportunities to fund those restructuring, and yes, it’s also true that we have some potential funding capacity as we look out. But I don’t think we’ve come to any conclusions at this point on what we’re going to do in 2015. We’ll take it opportunistically as we go through the year like we normally do.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
That’s fair. And then can I just follow up
Dave Cote:
As usual you can expect us to plan for some of the worst just so that we know what our downside is. I don’t think that’s what’s going to happen here, though, just based upon what you read about Ebola. In terms of its actual impact on the US in terms of how many people actually get ill, at least from the best I’ve been able to glean, we don’t expect much of an impact there. The thing you can’t predict is what that fear quotient is going to do, and as people just start to become afraid and as media has something new to talk about it’s tough to predict where that will go. So I’d say overall I don’t expect the actual impact in terms of illness to be consistent with what we saw with SARS. You still need to start to factor in what that fear quotient could do and that we’re not really going to know except over the next two to three months I would say. And we’re going to plan, make sure that we have a plan to address it in the most conservative way possible just so that we’re prepared.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Okay, thanks very much, I appreciate it.
Dave Cote:
You’re welcome.
Elena Doom:
So I want to hand the call back over to Dave Cote for some closing remarks.
Dave Cote:
Over the last few years we’d have to say the global macro economy really hasn’t provided much help, and we expect it’s going to continue that way as we outlined in our five-year plan back in March. As Tom and I both mentioned conservative sales planning has been the way to go and we’re going to continue that approach. It’s probably obvious by now that we’re pleased with our outperformance this quarter and this year and for that matter over the last few years, and we intend to continue outperforming consistent with our five-year plan. Within a slow global economy we will get all the sales we can because of our great positions in good industries, our high-growth region presence and focus, and new products. With that sales growth we’ll continue to drive cost and process discipline through our focus on HOS goals. So said more simply, we intend to continue outperforming. So thanks for listening and of course thank you to all our owners. I promise we won’t disappoint you, thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today’s teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Elena Doom - VP of IR David M. Cote - Chairman and CEO Tom Szlosek - SVP and CFO
Analysts:
Scott Davis - Barclays Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Howard Rubel - Jefferies John Inch - Deutsche Bank Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co. Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's Second Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Elena Doom, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Elena Doom:
Good morning. Thank you, Leo. Welcome to Honeywell’s second quarter 2014 earnings conference call. Here with me today are Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast including our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of today's presentation do contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we would ask that you interpret them in that light. We do identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the second quarter, then review our outlook for the second half and the rest of the year and then leave time of course for your questions. So with that, I’ll turn the call over to Dave Cote.
David M. Cote:
Thanks, Elena. As I’m sure you’ve seen by now, Honeywell had another terrific quarter and a very good first half 2014. EPS of $1.38 increased 12% year-over-year when normalizing for tax, so another quarter of double-digit EPS growth, with earnings coming in above the high-end of our guidance range. We saw strong execution across the portfolio with margin expansion in each of our four businesses. We’re continuing to benefit from our enablers and keep process initiatives that are delivering growth and productivity benefits and we’re achieving this while continuing to invest for the future, planting the seeds that will drive our performance and achievements of our new five-year plan. In the quarter, we were encouraged to see that our organic sales growth accelerated to 3%. We saw continued improvement in our short cycle order rates quarter progress with steady growth in ESS, a return to growth in advanced materials especially in flooring products and a continued healthy pace of recovery in Transportation Systems. Our robust long-cycle backlog which stands at 15.7 billion, up 4% from the end of last year, continues to support a favorable outlook with record orders for UOP and a continued uptick in new process solutions orders. We’ve also seen a moderation of the sales declines in Defense and Space that we saw earlier in the year. Speaking of D&S, I’m encouraged to see that the headwinds are nearly behind us. We’re expecting growth in D&S in the third quarter. In fact, we had 9% international growth in this last quarter. And early indications point to a modest increase next year. We recently celebrated the sentential anniversary of innovation and leadership in the Aerospace and the oil and gas industries, two examples of where we have great positions and good industries. Honeywell Aerospace has been a pioneer in aviation for the last 100 years offering products and services that can be found on virtually every aircraft worldwide. We’ve led the way from the beginning with firsts, like the first autopilot, the first truly automatic flight management system and the first trans-Atlantic biofuel flight. And we have differentiated through disruptive technologies across our electrical and mechanical portfolios as well as our push at the global connectivity as you’ve seen with recent partnership announcements with Inmarsat and AT&T. In oil and gas where our UOP business created the first conversion technology for upgrading crude oil jumpstarting the modern oil refining industry, we’re a driving force for innovation for the global petroleum and natural gas industries. Today, our leadership continues with new process technologies designed to get more valuable products from every barrel of oil, convert coal and natural gas into plastics and convert biofeed stocks such as algae into renewable fuels. We not only saw double-digit sales growth this quarter in UOP but record orders in backlogs, so the future continues to be promising. Another innovation I’d like to point out is our new Lyric thermostat designed for how people really live today. Using the location of your smartphone, the geofencing feature automatically turns the thermostat into energy saving mode when a home is empty. It senses when you’re coming home and heats or cools the house to your preferred temperature. It’s just another example of how the Honeywell user experience or HUE, depending upon how you want to pronounce it, enables us to move quickly to develop exciting new products that are easy to use, easy to maintain, easy to install and exceed customer needs. ECC has seen continued good growth to the retail channel and that’s up 40% in the second quarter. We think the portfolio is well positioned, aligned to favorable macro trends and there is significant runway to grow. We remain confident in our outlook for this year. As a result of our first half performance, we are raising the low end of our guidance again by $0.05, giving us a new pro forma EPS guidance range $5.45 to $5.55 or up 10% to 12% for the year. The closing of the sale of Friction Materials was a significant step in positioning our existing portfolio for continued outperformance. We also realigned the Transportation Systems business segment into Aerospace to better take advantage of the engineering and technology similarities and the shared operating practices with two businesses. Under the realigned segment reporting structure, the parts of Friction we’re keeping will remain under Transportation Systems reported within Aerospace. We just concluded our strategic planning reviews with our businesses and in these all-day sessions, each of our businesses presents their five-year strategic plan. While we’re not expecting much help from the macro environment, I can tell you that each business has a strong roadmap for the 2018 targets we laid out for you back in March. The growth opportunities and new product pipeline are quite impressive. We approached the finished line of our previous five-year targets confident in the strong foundation in place for continued outperformance. We have great positions in good industries. We’re investing both organically and inorganically to grow faster than the markets we serve and we’ll stay the course on seed planting and continuous improvement initiatives. We’re going to stay flexible and deliver on 2014 and beyond. So with that, I’ll turn it over to Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks, Dave, and good morning. On Slide 4, let me walk you through the financial results for the second quarter. Sales of 10.3 billion were up approximately 6% on a reported basis. That’s 3% organically. It came in just above the high-end of our guidance range. As we highlighted previously, the low first quarter organic growth was a bit of an anomaly with declines in Defense and Space and scanning mobility driving roughly two points of top line decline in the first quarter. As we signaled, these headwinds have dissipated. The contributions in 2Q from the businesses were broad-based with each SPG sales growth at or above the guidance we had communicated. Regionally, organic sales were up 2% in the U.S. despite the drag from defense and space; 5% in Europe, Middle East and Africa and 10% in China. In China we saw a good growth in our short-cycle businesses namely ESS and Transportation Systems in addition to continued long-cycle growth particularly in UOP and process solutions. Once again, our quality of earnings was strong with most of the improvement coming from segment profit which increased 10% in the quarter. Segment margins expanded 60 basis points to 16.7%. That’s 70 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of M&A and 20 basis points higher than the top end of our guidance. We had profit growth and margin expansion in all four businesses, so really a balanced contribution across the portfolio. It’s also notable that the better-than-expected performance from Intermec reduced the segment margin dilution from M&A in the quarter. Overall, we continue to see significant benefits from our productivity initiatives and proactive restructuring actions while continuing to invest for growth. Items below segment profit were mostly as anticipated. You’ll recall that in the second quarter of 2013, you’ll recognize an OPEB curtailment gain of $42 million which was more than offset at the time by restructuring actions, so really no year-over-year net impact. In the second quarter of 2014, we funded 14 million of restructuring projects bringing the total for the year to approximately 100 million. On a reported basis, the tax rate of 26.1% in the quarter represented a $0.06 headwind compared to the second quarter of 2013 and about a $0.01 tailwind relative to our guidance. EPS was $0.38, $0.02 above the high end of our guidance range; $0.01 was from operations and $0.01 came from the better tax rate I mentioned. EPS increased 8% on a reported basis or 12% when you normalize for the income tax rate. This was again driven by the 10% increase in segment profit, slightly more favorable below the line items and a minor benefit from lower share count. Finally on free cash flow, approximately 1.1 billion in the quarter, 5% higher than 2013 and 101% conversion despite a 17% increase in CapEx and higher cash taxes. Year-to-date, free cash flow was up 28% through the first half. Moving to Slide 5, we’re looking at Aerospace. Now this is prior to the realignment of Transportation Systems and Aerospace. We’ll adopt that change in the third quarter. You’ll also see us file an 8-K in the third quarter reflect this change on our historical reporting. So when it comes all the forward-looking guidance that I’ll touch on later, we do reflect the new reporting structure. So Aerospace sales were flat in the quarter which is in line with our guidance with 1% commercial sales growth offset by 1% decline in Defense and Space. Despite the challenging top line, segment margin was up 30 basis points driven by commercial excellence and productivity, net of inflation, partially offset by BGA OEM payments, a higher mix of OE content and investments in growth programs. The flat commercial OE sales reflect strong growth in large air transport driven by OE build rates offset by lower regional jet sales, engine shipment timing and higher BGA OEM payments. Now as a reminder, we have won significant content on a number of new OE platforms, and have and will continue to incur upfront costs as a result. These costs are fully contemplated in the five-year planning we have shared with you and are accounting for these costs is very conservative compared to the industry. The Aerospace business model is fully intact and these wins coupled with the exciting new technology offerings in aero give us full confidence that the growth will accelerate over the five years in our plan. Commercial aftermarket sales up 1% in the quarter with continued strong spares growth in both ATR and BGA. This strength was offset by lower R&O revenues, a reflection of fewer maintenance events and timing, particularly in business aviation. Aftermarket backlog levels in R&O along with robust spares demand underpinned an acceleration of aftermarket growth in 3Q. Defense and Space sales were down 1% but a nice improvement from the 8% decline in the first quarter. U.S. defense aftermarket and government services declined significantly moderated from first quarter levels and growth in international markets, which Dave referenced earlier, helped to offset those declines. Defense and Space is tracking to a 3% decline for the full year. On Slide 6 we’re looking at ACS results for the second quarter. ACS sales were up 10% on a reported basis and 3% on an organic basis, in line with our expectations. The difference in the two rates principally reflects the contributions of Intermec. Looking at the businesses, ESS sales, so the products businesses, were up 4% organic with ECC and scanning and mobility showing particularly strong growth. ECC continues to benefit from strong residential end markets and new product introductions particularly in the retail channel. Dave talked about Lyric and overall the thermostat category is performing very well for us. As for scanning and mobility, following the ramp-down of certain large programs in Q1, it returned a strong organic growth in the second quarter. New wins which ramped over the course of the year are driving sustained growth. Intermec also continues to perform very well, supplementing the growth we’re seeing out of the core HSM business. Our fire, safety and gas businesses have shown continued strength as well. On a regional basis, penetration of high growth regions remains a big driver of growth in ESS, as we saw strong double-digit growth in both China and the Middle East. Moving to Building Solutions and Distribution, sales were up 2% with strength in the Americas distribution business offsetting pockets of weakness in Building Solutions, specifically the U.S. energy retrofit business. We are encouraged, however, as Building Solutions project and services backlog continues to grow. I’d like to take a minute to comment on what we’re seeing in the commercial building sector. We’ve seen modest improvement from the first quarter to the second quarter in the ESS products business as a service sector primarily ECC and fire, safety. We are anticipating further improvements in the second half. In the Americas energy business, as I said, orders have been delayed due to financing and municipal contract holdup. While the projects can be lumpy, we are seeing bid activity heating up, especially in the Middle East and China and energy efficient projects globally. This along with the easing of year-over-year comps gives us confidence that our commercial building related sales will modestly accelerate in the second half. Moving to ACS margins, expansion of 50 basis points to 14.8% in the quarter, up 80 basis points including M&A. ACS continues to benefit from productivity net of inflation, commercial excellence as well as higher volume while also continuing to invest for future growth. Moving to Slide 7, Performance Materials and Technologies, PMT sales were 2.6 billion, up 6% organic and we’re above the high-end of our guidance, driven primarily by stronger than expected results in UOP. UOP sales increased 17% in the quarter, driven by increased catalysts and gas processing sales reflecting continued strong refining, petrochemical and gas markets. UOP had a record quarter for both orders and backlog which currently stands at 2.6 billion. We saw a continuation of orders for [transient] (ph) gas processing particularly with Thomas Russell. So continued benefit in UOP from oil and gas investments occurring globally. In process solutions, sales were flat on an organic basis primarily driven by a couple of large projects completed in the prior period, offsetting growth across the remainder of the portfolio and high margin areas like services and advanced software solutions. Process solutions orders growth accelerated in the quarter, up approximately 7% organic and as we will preview, modest sales acceleration is expected in the second half of the year. Advanced Material Sales increased 5% in the quarter. We saw volume increases across the businesses with particular strength in flooring products, driven by new global warming molecule offering. These volume increases were partially offset by unfavorable pricing particularly in Resins and Chemicals as we’ve been signaling. We expect these pricing headwinds to moderate in the second half of the year. Segment margins for PMT were up 30 basis points to 18% consistent with our expectation, driven by productivity net of inflation and higher volume partially offset by price, raw headwinds and Resins and Chemicals, unfavorable UOP catalyst shipment mix and continued investments for growth. On Slide 8 you can see Transportation Systems which again to remind you includes Friction Materials for the second quarter. TS had another strong quarter with sales up 8%, that’s 4% without foreign exchange and segment margin expansion of 310 basis points. The sales increase was primarily driven by turbo volume growth across our three largest regions; Europe, North America and China. In each of these regions, our volume growth outpaced auto production. The growth we’re seeing in Europe was strong in both the light and commercial vehicle segments. We’ve benefited from an uptick in European commercial vehicle demand primarily driven by the Euro 6 regulation shift in the region. Outside of Europe, both North America and China saw strong volume increases in light vehicles both diesel and gas, which more than offset lower commercial vehicle volume sales in those regions. In North America specifically, commercial off-highway sales remained soft consistent with trends in mining and agriculture segments. Overall, we continue to benefit from improving global industrial macros on vehicle production, regulation, turbo penetration and our strong win rates. As we begin to lap the strong second half performance in 2013, however, we do expect some moderation in these growth rates beginning in 4Q 2014. The segment margin improvement to 16.4% reflects the strong productivity and a volume leverage in turbo and the benefits from restructuring and other operational improvements. With the closing of the Friction Materials divestiture behind us, let’s now turn to Slide 9 and walk through our guidance for the third quarter under our new reporting structure. We’re expecting sales of 9.9 billion to 10.1 billion which will be up 3% to 5% reported or 3% to 4% on an organic basis. Segment margins are expected to be up approximately 50 basis points and earnings per share is expected to be in the range of $1.37 to $1.42, up 10% to 15% from the prior year. For Aerospace, as I indicated earlier, we are providing guidance under the new reporting structure with Transportation Systems included. Sales growth on a reported basis is expected to be flat to down 2% in the quarter, reflecting the year-over-year absence of Friction Materials sales in the quarter. On an organic basis or in other words without the Friction business, sales are expected to be up approximately 2% to 3% with growth across the portfolio; Commercial, Defense and Space and Transportation Systems. In Commercial, OE sales are expected to be approximately flat year-over-year with continued growth in ATR offsetting declines in BGA similar to the second quarter. However, we are expecting acceleration in aftermarket growth in the quarter, up low single digit driven by continued spares strength and higher airline maintenance event. We’re also expecting to see a return to growth in Defense and Space, as Dave indicated, up low to mid single digits where international programs continue to drive growth. In Transportation Systems, we’re expecting mid single digit organic sales growth in the quarter and as for margins we expect an increase of approximately 150 basis points with significant contributions from both the Aerospace and TS businesses. For ACS, sales are expected to be up between 8% and 10% or 3% to 4% on an organic basis. And as a reminder, we closed Intermec in the third quarter of 2013, so this will be the last quarter of M&A impact from that transaction. Organically, we expect continued mid single digit growth in ESS and improvement in BSD. Our short-cycle orders have been trending up at ESS and the backlog is growing in Building Solutions. Both trends bode well for our third quarter outlook. ACS margins are expected to be up approximately 20 basis points or approximately 40 basis points excluding the dilutive impact from M&A. ACS continues to ramp their investment for growth in new products as well as adding speed on the street as we continue to further penetrate high growth regions. In PMT, sales are expected to increase between 4% and 6% in the third quarter. In UOP we foresee another quarter of increased catalyst growth, however, similar to the first half, product mix in Q3 will result in a headwind for UOP margins. As a reminder, UOP sales can be lumpy quarter-to-quarter based on the timing of product and as such we are forecasting a sales decline of approximately 10% in the fourth quarter for UOP against a much more challenging comp. However, our outlook for the year remains intact for mid single digit growth in UOP and with the record orders in backlog we experienced in Q2, we expect strong growth to continue over our five-year plan. In HPS, after several quarters in a row of strong orders growth, we’re expecting to see sales accelerate in the back half of the year carrying into 2015 with continued strong margin expansion. The increased orders growth will really start to show in the fourth quarter as we’re expecting high single digit sales growth for HPS. In Advanced Materials, we anticipate another quarter of broad sales growth across the portfolio including improved production levels in Resins and Chemicals and increased sales of global warming products and flooring products. Overall, TMT segment margins are expected to be up slightly versus the prior year, reflecting similar trends that we explained for Q2 with the exception that pricing pressures in Advanced Materials are expected to moderate. Let me move to Slide 10 where I’d like to take a moment to refresh our 2014 segment outlook. This guidance reflects the realignment of Transportation Systems and Aerospace as well the transition of process solutions into PMT that occurred in 2Q. Let me explain the setup here. The left half represents the guidance we provided in April, so with process solutions already in PMT but prior to the sale of Friction Materials and prior to the movement of TS. The right side reflects our current outlook including the Friction Materials divestiture and the realignment of Transportation Systems in Aero. At the bottom of the page you can see our new sales guidance which reflects the absence of approximately 300 million Friction Materials sales in the second half and our increased segment margins guidance for the year driven by our strong first half performance and the margin accretion we will experience from the absence of Friction Materials sales in the second half. There are some comparable dynamics to be aware of as you think about the full year. First, in Aerospace with the inclusion of Transportation Systems, we’re expecting 4Q sales to be down low single digit on a reported basis but up about 1% to 2% on an organic basis driven primarily by the timing of OE shipments in our air transport business. However, you can see the significant margin expansion we’re expecting this year with contributions from both Aerospace and Transportation Systems businesses. Also, as I referenced, we expect a decline in 4Q sales in UOP, all timing and comp related. And I want to reiterate that we anticipate another year of good growth in 2015 from UOP given of the significant multiyear backlog we’re building in it. There are some minor puts and takes but no real changes to ACS or PMT from their prior outlooks with continued margin expansion in both businesses. Turning to the next slide, Slide 11, you can see the basis for the 3Q, 4Q and raised full year guidance. Full year sales are now expected to be 40.2 billion to 40.4 billion, reflecting first half performance and a modest organic sales acceleration in the second half. Estimated full year sales are lower at the midpoint from our previous guidance reflecting the absence of approximately 300 million of Friction Materials sales in the second half. So on an organic basis, we continue to expect about 3% growth for the full year. Although acceleration is expected in the second half, most notably in Defense and Space, process solutions and Advanced Materials, we will see tougher comps in the fourth quarter, specifically in UOP and Aerospace as I mentioned. As you’ll recall, we saw strong acceleration in organic growth at the end of 2013 with growth of 5% in the fourth quarter of last year. On segment margin, we’ve increased our full year guidance and now expect 16.8% to 17%, up about 60 basis points at the midpoint versus last year. On EPS, we’re raising the bottom end of our pro forma guidance by $0.05 taking the new range $5.45 to $5.55 or increase to 10% to 12% versus the prior year. We are planning for a 26.5% tax rate in 3Q with 4Q just slightly higher to get to our full planning assumption of 26.5%. So, overall, we feel like we’re executing well and delivering on the high end of our 2014 commitment. I’m now on Slide 12 and before wrapping up, I want to give you an update on our new five-year plan of 2018. On a total Honeywell basis, the targets are identical with those we shared at the March Investor Day. However, the individual components now reflect our new business segment reporting structure. So even with the Friction Materials divestiture, the overall Honeywell targets are identical to those originally communicated. We’re continuing to target a 4% to 6% organic sales CAGR and segment margin in the range of 18.5% to 20% by 2018, which is 220 to 370 basis points improvement from 2013; strong earnings growth which you come to expect from Honeywell. On the left side of the page, you can see the previous outlook by business based on our old reporting structure. Moving to the right side of the page, our current targets now reflect the combined Aerospace and Transportation Systems businesses, less Friction Materials, as well as HPS transitioned to PMT. So minor puts and takes but overall very consistent with what you’ve heard in March and a significant contribution across the portfolio. As Dave continues to emphasize the growth and margin story, it doesn’t end in 2018. Each of our businesses still has significant runway based on the continued evolution of our internal processes, global growth and execution and the value we add for the customer through innovation and the Honeywell user experience, so even more to come. Let me finish on Slide 13. The second quarter results put us another step closer to delivering on the high expectations for 2014 we laid out in December. The pace of acceleration in organic growth over the course of the quarter gives us confidence in our second half outlook where we expect a modest uptick in organic growth and a continuation of strong productivity. We’re going to keep investing for our future focused on our new five-year plan, innovation and new product introductions which are the lifeblood of our growth remain a key priority, as well as the investments we’re making to further penetrate high growth regions. We feel confident that our balance portfolio mix, alignment to favorable macro trends and focused cost discipline will enable us to continue to outperform and we’re focused on executing sustainable restructuring productivity actions including delivering on the strong restructuring project pipeline we’ve already fund. So with that, Elena, let’s go to Q&A.
Elena Doom:
Thanks, Tom. Leo will now take our first question.
Operator:
The floor is now open for questions. (Operator Instructions). Our first question is coming from Scott Davis of Barclays.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
David M. Cote:
Hi.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
You didn’t really talk much about M&A in the release, right, I’d say not at all, but Roger Fradin now has had a couple of months in the role. I mean, can you give us a sense of how he’s progressing as far as pipeline and changing the M&A process and your confidence in being able to do deals in the next 12 months?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, Scott, I’m happy to answer that. As you know, historically, our approach to M&A has been really a bottoms-up process from the businesses. So each business has resources, it has an action plan to maintain a robust portfolio of M&A targets and that’s what you’re seeing generate the deals that are done over here. And as you alluded to, did the appointment of Roger into the Vice Chairman’s role and one of the things Dave tends to do was to focus with our M&A team on the pipeline and that portfolio. So we’ve kind of gotten a top sound focus from Roger in addition to the process that we’ve had in our history. So, what you’ve got is you’ve got two ways of looking at it and when you look across the portfolio, we are seeing quite a bit of interest as a result of this process. As you know, we’re quite active in looking at potential deals in Aerospace, ACS and in PMT and I think that activity will continue.
David M. Cote:
For what it’s worth, Scott, Tom has also said he enjoys having Roger report to him on that.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
Well, good luck. We’ll be watching closely on that. But, guys, can you give us a better sense – I mean I’ve struggled to understand this business for a lot of years and I’m talking about UOP and kind of the quarter-by-quarter variability. I mean it’s a fantastic business but I have no idea how you forecast or how you – you’re really having in confidence one quarter to the next in that regard. But how does a business like that have such a strong quarter without there being an inventory build or some sort of – something going on at the customer level that may come back and bite you in the tail in a quarter or two? I mean I just don’t understand it I guess.
David M. Cote:
I’ll answer first and turn it over to Tom, but I’d say on an annual basis it’s pretty forecastable. They don’t have a lot of inventory to have to fool with in the first place. A lot of this is a technology sale. I mean there is some inventory but not a huge amount. It’s between quarters that can be more variable but even that variability is generally forecastable. It’s just that you can end up with lumpiness when it comes to one quarter versus another, but we generally have a pretty good handle on what’s going out the door.
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, I think Dave hit it on the head, Scott. It is quite lumpy but because of the long-cycle nature of it and we referenced the backlog earlier. I mean we had a record backlog 2.6 billion, up double digit from last year and we have good insight into what’s going to happen quarter-over-quarter and that backlog dissipates and will end up in our P&L over a fairly short timeframe, a year and a half to two years. So, we do feel like we have a good track on forecasting that.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
Okay. And last just quickly. Guys, we used to think about – in TS we used to think about turbo as being one of those businesses that was kind of 600 basis points over to auto SAR, maybe a little bit better in some quarters, maybe a little bit worst. But has that changed at all? I mean is there a different thought process in how that grows versus auto SAR globally?
Tom Szlosek:
Well, we do end up with a regional mix difference that can impact us, because we’ve got a strong position in Euro diesel and that was one of the things that really helped us with that industry bottoming out this year, so all the wins finally started to show up as opposed to mitigating the decline we were seeing in Euro auto. But overall, yes, it’s going to continue to grow well for a long time.
David M. Cote:
Yes, I mean I guess what I’d say is that I reemphasize that the growth profile that we’ve got going, I mean it’s in all of our big regions; I mean in North America both on the diesel and gas side with strong double digit growth, China’s strong double digit growth on both diesel and gas as well and Europe’s doing pretty well as well and the commercial vehicle side in Europe particularly is very strong.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
But that’s 600 basis points above SAR, I mean is that changed or are you punting on the answer?
Elena Doom:
Scott, I would say that you’re seeing light vehicle production in the quarter was flat and so for turbo we had organic growth of 5%, so 500 basis points was within that range.
Scott Davis - Barclays:
Okay, good. That’s what I really wanted to know. Thanks guys. Good quarter and thanks. Good luck.
David M. Cote:
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Hi. Thanks and good morning, everybody.
David M. Cote:
Hi, Steve.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Dave, just an initial question on that turbo move and transport to Aero, how much is cost a part of that or should I say how much cost reduction are you expecting from de-layering? Is there any in there in addition to the technology justification?
David M. Cote:
No, not really. In fact, our turbo business is pretty lean already and I’m hoping when we reference operating practices in the release, I’m hoping for more leanness to transfer into the Aero business looking at turbo as a model.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Okay. So the rationale here is sort of subscale in existing – separate reporting segment now. Obviously the technology is always overlapped but you could have gotten that otherwise and maybe some practice opportunities here. Is that how I should think about it?
David M. Cote:
I might modify that a bit. I agree on size. Subscale, I don’t know whether I’d call it that. Including that industry their scale is quite good. On the technology side, it’s one thing to tell two businesses that, hey, would you guys cooperate but I could say over 12 years there’s been an evolution there. It used to be the Aero business wanted to charge the turbo business $200,000 per person for cooperation. Yes, you might remember those days. Things have changed a lot and we’ve progressed to the point where we co-locate engineers, as I’ve mentioned in the past. That being said, you still get a different dynamic when you put the businesses together. We’re putting them together in a way that allows us to get much further advantage on that technology benefit that we have with Aero technology because turbo is just a derivation of a jet engine and we’re the only guys who have that. We want to take further advantage of it, but I’m also hoping for a lot more of those lean practices to transition into Aero, because the Aerospace industry is, let’s say, right with opportunity when it comes to running more leanly than it does today. And while I’m pretty proud of what we’ve been able to do, where we’ve been able to get to it, at the end of the day I think there is still one hell of a lot more opportunity there for us and this is a good way to have best practices in-house that they can be looking at.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Okay. And speaking of moving organizationally to drive better financial results, HPS within PMT now, but just maybe talk about the projects that are completed? It’s down 1% flat organic, but again this sort of North American build out that suggest that they’re very, very early stages. What are you seeing there? Any hopes that we should anticipate a ramp up soon?
Tom Szlosek:
Steve, like we said, first of all there is a lot of excitement around the combination of those two businesses and we do think that marketwise it’s going to enable us to better serve the common customer base that’s there. I think you’re referring specifically to HPS. I mean the second quarter orders were very strong, up 7% on an organic basis and that’s another quarter of pretty good growth for them on the order side. As I said, that hasn’t factored into our full year guidance, UOP as well. As I said, both orders and backlog are strong. Talked about the lumpiness, but the same trajectory. Both of those businesses [really fits] (ph). And unlike the TS1 that Dave said, I do hope we get a little bit of productivity out of that combination as well.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Okay. And just lastly, you mentioned you just wrapped up the STRAP process. Again, just remind me, what macro assumptions did you give the business, the STUs to use for the five-year plan in terms of top line base growth?
Tom Szlosek:
I think we used the global insights, GDP forecast like 3%...
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Okay.
Tom Szlosek:
About 3% to 3.5% is kind of the assumption globally.
David M. Cote:
I mean a lot different than what we said back in March just because I don’t think that much has changed since that time.
Tom Szlosek:
I think the FX, we assume at about 30.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
Okay, great. Thank you. I’ll hand it off.
David M. Cote:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
Hi. Good morning.
David M. Cote:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
How bad is UOP going to be in the fourth quarter?
David M. Cote:
What an interesting way to put it. I don’t know whether I would say it is bad, I would say it’s all contemplated within our fourth quarter guidance which you can see churned up pretty well for the year. I don’t know Tom if there’s anything else you want to add there?
Tom Szlosek:
No, I mean full year UOP will be 5% as I said, down 8% in the fourth quarter. First quarter was 9%, the past quarter was 17%. We’ll see mid single digits in the third quarter and probably 8% to 10% down in the fourth quarter. But full year we remain on track and again that order and backlog should be very strong.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
Yes, I don’t think there is an issue with trend of the business, I’m just trying to kind of reconcile the 3% organic growth you did this quarter and the only thing that really seems to be getting worst just on lumpiness or a quarterly basis, whatever is in the math, would be UOP. I mean everything actually seems to be looking better like accelerating and so I’m just kind of like the 3% organic even with UOP which is dramatic with 8% is a pretty big number. So I’m just trying to reconcile that 3% you did this quarter versus why with things getting better, why that should be 3% in the fourth quarter?
Elena Doom:
I think we also mentioned that we do have other softer comps, in particular Aerospace for OE and also the Transportation Systems relative to both were up mid teens in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
Right. But I mean you didn’t really grow in commercial Aero this quarter, so are you going to be done in commercial Aero in the fourth quarter?
Elena Doom:
Our ATR OE growth this quarter was [over 6] (ph).
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
Okay. So there was – the jet stuff kind of offset that, okay.
David M. Cote:
Your thesis, Steve, is not – the way you’re talking about it seems reasonable.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
Right, okay. And then I guess I’m just going to ask this every quarter and this quarter was particularly interesting because DuPont preannounced negatively and I got a flood of emails about R-22 pricing. I don’t really get chemicals – the question is around chemicals pricing for a lot of the other companies that I follow and with the re-segmentation you just did, you kind of went to a little less disclosure which I don’t particularly view as a good thing. Is this the final kind of iteration of outside of acquisitions of what the portfolio looks like or could we maybe breakout the more process kind of oil and gas related businesses and maybe again kind of at some point evaluate this chemical business as a part of the Honeywell portfolio?
David M. Cote:
I would say in terms of our organization, I kind of like it just the way it is now.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
Okay, so no change.
David M. Cote:
No.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
Okay, thanks.
David M. Cote:
If it was you couldn’t expect me to say anything anyway, Steve, so…
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
It’s my job to ask the question. Thanks.
David M. Cote:
All right.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
Thank you. Good morning, folks.
David M. Cote:
Hi, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
Hi. How is it going? Could we get a little more color on the commercial building for U.S. specifically? The color Tom gave I think it was global and helpful but I’m going to lay the land on U.S. specifically if you have it?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, I would say Jeff the growth in the products business that are serving commercial buildings are reasonable, I mean mid single digits in the second quarter. I expect that to continue for the remainder of the year if not accelerate a little bit more modestly. In terms of the pure building solutions business, the business in the U.S. was tempered a bit by the energy business. We have a couple of really large projects completed since 2013 that tempered the sale. In terms of the orders broke there, it’s flat globally but on the Americas side it’s been picking up to mid to high single digits.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
Mid to high single digit U.S. energy retrofit but global flat on orders?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
Okay. Thank you. And I was just wondering, Dave, if you could address Europe a little bit more specifically? I think the plus 5 was in an EMEA comment. That was kind of core Europe actually doing and was running a slowdown in Europe in the quarter in June that you noticed?
David M. Cote:
Overall, what kind of interesting is our Europe orders have actually done okay as you’ve been hearing us say for the last two or three quarters. So I’m a little surprised actually given that the overall economy doesn’t perform all that well and we don’t have a lot of expectation to the economy to perform all that well over the, say, next two or three years. That being said, our orders were okay there.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
And just one final one from me and I’ll move on, perhaps too granular for this call, but are you seeing any signs of kind of toppiness, pressure in the commercial helicopter market?
David M. Cote:
No, I don’t think so. We actually think that’s going to be a pretty good market for a while.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
Yes. Just some cautionary comments out of Eurocopter this week and Farm Bureau and some toppiness at [Bell] (ph) also. Maybe it’s just some noise in the quarter…
David M. Cote:
I’m not sure what their expectation was either but I’d say overall we still think that’s a growth market.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
Great. Thank you, guys. Take care.
David M. Cote:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Howard Rubel of Jefferies.
Howard Rubel - Jefferies:
Good morning.
David M. Cote:
Hi, Howard.
Howard Rubel - Jefferies:
How are you?
David M. Cote:
Good.
Howard Rubel - Jefferies:
Number look nice.
David M. Cote:
Thank you.
Howard Rubel - Jefferies:
A couple of things. You never stop pushing excellence and while Friction Materials is the last obvious divestiture, how do you think about keeping the guys at the back of the line equal with the people outperforming at the front?
David M. Cote:
Well, that’s something we pay a lot of attention to all the time and in several different ways. One of the things we’ll be doing that more in the future is through this HOS Gold effort that you’ve heard us talk about and as especially as we go through the planning or what we call STRAP exercise, we spent a lot of time looking at that. And I can’t say that we look at it with threatened to fail if they don’t kind of come up to par, but at the end of the day I’d say I’m really encouraged by the upside I see across the portfolio and the implementation of HOS Gold and the ability to raise sales growth and margin rates everywhere.
Howard Rubel - Jefferies:
And then kind of staying with that theme, you’re spending a lot of money on new products and you highlighted a couple of them in ACS. Can you sort of talk about, are you getting the productivity you want and are there – how do you think about maybe – how much of this is contributing to organic growth as opposed to just the normal economy?
Tom Szlosek:
Sorry, to products or productivity, Howard?
Howard Rubel - Jefferies:
Well, I guess I’ll mix them both. I mean one is the productivity associated with new product development and then second is how is that contributing to the organic growth, Tom?
Tom Szlosek:
First off, if you look at it in pure financial metrics, we’re not decelerating at all on investment with new product. For example, if you look at R&D investments it’s not – that’s not per se generating productivity, but when you look at productivity across direct materials and our people costs, I would say that has been as strong as it has been in the last couple of years which is the way I look at it.
Howard Rubel - Jefferies:
And then last, Intermec, looks like you’re getting the top line you expected. How would you evaluate where you are in terms of the integration process and when do we really see its profitability normalize with the rest of the business units?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, I’d say, Howard, the way we look at that one is a year ago everybody – when we closed the deal it was a business that was not very profitable at all and you fast forward to now and if you look at what we’ve done just to look at the multiple that we pay in Intermec today and you would say we’re at 17, 18 times multiple. And you factor in synergies it’s gotten and that are in place, we’re down to sub 5 type multiples. It kind of gives you an idea that we feel like we’ve been successful. So when you look at the plan itself, when you look at both revenues and the income and the cash, all of those metrics were performing a lot better than the plans. John and his team with Scanning and Mobility as well as the Intermec have really have done a nice job integrating those two businesses.
Howard Rubel - Jefferies:
Thank you very much.
David M. Cote:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Inch of Deutsche Bank.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
David M. Cote:
Hi, John.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Good morning. So how did your businesses – I realize it’s not a huge exposure but how did your businesses fair in Latin America and the (indiscernible) does market weakness in Latin America, Dave Cote, maybe provide you an opportunity perhaps with respect to capital and deployment or step up some investment spending there or something like that?
David M. Cote:
We continue to do very well with everything south of the Rio Grande and you look at the big ones; Mexico and Brazil, we continue to do well there. Mexico, we’ve got about 14,000 employees. In Brazil we’ve got about 1,000 and our sales have been quite good there. In terms of investing, I still think that there are places where you think about it before you do it. It’s not a no-brainer. But overall those have been very good markets for us.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Your Brazilian business is up in the quarter?
David M. Cote:
Yes.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Defense and Space, were there any pockets of Defense and Space or expectations of Defense and Space pockets like within the framework of that business that you expect to actually get better over the course of the year? And I’m curious kind of how if anything has changed with respect to how you were seeing this business, how are you’re going to manage it? I’m assuming it kind of gets managed down over time, but maybe not?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, John, the way I think of the Defense and Space business is it has two pieces of products business where we’re dealing with the U.S. government and/or the prime contractors. And then there’s the service business that’s largely unrelated to the Aerospace industry and that’s where we’re seeing the most pressure. Thankfully it’s a lower margin business, but that’s where the top line for Defense and Space are the most pronounced for us. We’re now approaching periods where we’re going to start lapping comps, so that pressure will subside. The other thing we’ve got going on there is the international side. If you’ve read the paper this morning, I mean unfortunately those things happen but that tends to bode well for military budgets outside of the U.S. and so we’re seeing an uptick, as Dave referenced, in sales in the international side of Defense and Space. So you got some balancing dynamics going there. I think they’ll net to the positive as we head into the second half of the year.
David M. Cote:
The other thing to recognize, John, is as we’ve said before, Defense is really more of a sales channel for us. It’s not like we have – while the jet engine might be unique to a certain defense application, at the end of the day it’s still coming out of a jet engine factory that also produced in commercial.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Right, and all incremental. Maybe one more. Global markets, Dave Cote, kind of do not begin to show more signs of life. I realize you’re outperforming today but let’s call it over the course of the coming year. Does that cause you to perhaps modify or even accelerate aspects of your operating framework to hit or totally exceed your five-year targets?
David M. Cote:
Well, as you know, I’ve been one the guys who has generally been more negative on the global outlook for the last four years and so far it has been a pretty good call. So I’d say the way we’ve forecasted this year and the way we’ve looked at our five-year plan is pretty consistent with that. I never counted on much and so far it has been a good call. So I feel pretty good about where we are and what we’re saying.
John Inch - Deutsche Bank:
Thank you very much.
David M. Cote:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Christopher Glynn of Oppenheimer.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co.:
Thanks. Good morning.
David M. Cote:
Hi, Chris.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co.:
Hi there.
David M. Cote:
Your brother-in-law Tom says hi.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co.:
Thanks for passing that along. I got a text from him last night.
Tom Szlosek:
I guess this is going to be an easy question.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co.:
We’ll see. So I wanted to follow-up on the M&A and part of Roger’s job now I think is the opportunity to look at sourcing larger deals and we see the Intermec integration was pretty rapid fire with the benefits. So, I’m wondering are you just starting to develop the pipeline for larger deals or is that something that’s already kind of established?
Tom Szlosek:
There’s been a conservative effort to find larger deals with Roger joining in that area. I do think that he has the tendency and the license and idea of looking across Honeywell and trying to identify opportunities that might touch on more than one business or that might be an adjacent to the three business segments that we have. That might lead you to think there is larger deals in the making. But I would say that’s not the primary objective. The primary objective is to augment those existing portfolios and find good growth ideas that are in industries alike.
David M. Cote:
I’d add, Chris, that while we did an okay job on origination, as Roger started to get into this around the company looking at it within the businesses, across the businesses and adjacencies that might make sense, he’s really invigorating the overall kind of origination process. But I think it’s going to give us a lot more ideas to work with than what we’ve had in the past. And you’ve heard us talk about many times that we have and want even more of a robust pipeline. If the more ideas you have, the more stuff you can go after, the more opportunities it gives you and it also allows you to be more selective. You can end up being I’d say in a much better position to negotiate if you have nine other good deals that you can’t do so that you don’t do something silly when it comes to pricing.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co.:
Right. Well, we haven’t seen that be a problem, so I think our bias then would be more to higher frequency of deals in your accelerated capital allocation rather than seeing something larger.
David M. Cote:
Well, I guess it depends how you define larger but I would say – you have heard me say many times we never say never on any of this because it’s going to depend upon the construct of the deal. But whatever we do I can promise you we’ll be consistent with the financial and operating discipline model that we’ve talked about in the past and we’ll have strong cost synergies that come out of it consistent with Tom’s point of Intermec because that certainly is one of the things that I think has helped define our track record.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co.:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Elena Doom:
Leo, we have time for just one more question.
Operator:
Very good. We’ll take a question from Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes, good morning. Just a little bit more color on UOP and HPS. Could you just comment more on petchem demand by region because we’re hearing mix commentary this earnings season?
Tom Szlosek:
UOP by region?
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes, and HPS as it seems that some pieces of oil and gas and petchem industry are moving in different directions. Just trying to get what you guys are seeing.
Elena Doom:
It’s really broad based I think if you move across all the regions. I mean oil and gas has been particularly strong in the U.S., the Middle East, China in particular. Anything, Tom, you could add there?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes, I would say the Middle East has been outstanding for both UOP and HPS and China’s [lending] (ph) those were very good. But it’s not like the U.S. is…
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And just a question on Aerospace, you sort of noted that RMU’s growth is moderating and I think you guys were positive. Can you just talk about what’s happening there and any sort of broader trends that are taking place?
Tom Szlosek:
Well, I think on RMUs the sales levels are very strong. It’s just that we had such an uptick in the early and middle part of 2013 and really into '14 that we’re starting to lap through that are really strong, but we’re sustaining the level of new product development there and the offerings, they’re going on to those platforms particularly on BGA side particularly as it relates to software.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks a lot.
Elena Doom:
Well, thank you for your participation today. I do want to turn the call over to Dave Cote for any final comments.
David M. Cote:
Well, we’re quite pleased with our second quarter results and our outlook for the year and I think it’s a good reflection of our expectations for ourselves over the next five years. We have a great portfolio to grow with, our process initiatives continue to progress and our culture provides sustainability as we evolve and continue the seed planting. We’re building on a great base and with the addition of our drive for HOS Gold, software including CMMI level 5 and HUE, we see a lot of good things to come from Honeywell. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Elena Doom – Vice President of Investor Relations David Cote – Chairman, Chief Executive Officer Tom Szlosek – Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Scott Davis – Barclays Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein Steve Tusa – JPMorgan Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley Howard Rubel – Jefferies Peter Arment - Sterne Agee Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's first quarter 2014 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Now I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Elena Doom, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Elena Doom:
Thank you, Tony. Good morning and welcome to our first quarter 2014 earnings conference call. With me today are Chairman and CEO, Dave Cote and Senior Vice President and CFO, Tom Szlosek. This call and webcast including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at honeywell.com/investor. Note that elements of today's presentation do contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we would ask that you interpret them in that light. We do identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the first quarter and review our outlook for the second quarter and full year and finally we will save time for your questions. So with that, I will turn the call over to Dave Cote.
David Cote:
Thanks, Elena. Good morning, everyone. I'm sure you've seen by now, Honeywell delivered another good quarter to kick off 2014. EPS of $1.28 increased 10% year-over-year when normalizing for tax, so another quarter of double-digit EPS growth, with earnings coming in above the high-end of our guidance range. This was driven in large part by our strong execution and higher sales conversion, all while maintaining our seed planting investments in the future. Our enablers and key process initiatives are driving meaningful results throughout the portfolio. An important driver of our productivity continues to be the savings we're seeing from previously funded restructuring actions. With that in mind, we've been able to proactively fund restructuring and other actions by fully deploying the approximate $0.10 gain from the sale of B/E Aerospace shares in the first quarter, just like we did in the fourth quarter of last year. I'd also point out that the company funded an incremental $10 million of restructuring actions in the quarter from operations. So, in total, $0.11 of restructuring and other actions. The projects funded in the first quarter alone are estimated to yield full run rate savings of about $70 million over the next couple of years. We're being proactive about keeping that restructuring pipeline full and we think these actions position us well for further market expansion over the next five years. Margin, EPS and cash flow were all strong in the quarter in spite of slightly slower top line growth, primarily related to timing in PMT and lower defense and space sales. Sales in the quarter of $9.7 billion were up 4% reported and 1% organic. However, if you exclude D&S where the headwinds are well known, organic sales for the total company were up about 3%. We talked a lot about great positions in good industries and our diversity of opportunity which once again benefited us in the quarter. We saw a good momentum exiting the quarter in our short-cycle businesses, while our long-cycle businesses maintained healthy backlog. We're also seeing pockets of recovery in below peak end markets. Transportation systems, for example, continues its healthy pace of recovery, and while weather may have been a factor in some areas, these challenges were mostly offset by weather related areas of opportunity. For example, ECC enjoyed strong double-digit sales growth in combustion and heating controls. The order momentum we're seeing out of our long cycle businesses and short cycle also positions us well for our expected acceleration of organic growth in the second quarter and second half of the year. Geography is also part of our diversity of opportunity. In the U.S., we continue to see good growth excluding the D&S headwinds I mentioned. We're encouraged by continued stabilization in Europe and even more excited about the growth we saw in China, India and the Middle East. It's worth nothing that each of our SBGs grew double-digits organically in China in the quarter. So, both our short and long cycle businesses are delivering on our high growth reaching strategies. Innovation and investments in new product and technologies are also driving value across the portfolio. We unveiled the Honeywell User Experience or HUE back in March and we couldn't be more excited about what this will mean for Honeywell. We recently opened a HUE design studio in Shanghai with other design studios set to open globally. We're focused on how we can drive significant change and improve the experience for the user, installer and maintainer. With all that being said, we remain cautiously optimistic on the macro economy and with the strength in the first quarter, we're confident in our revised full year outlook for pro forma EPS, raising the low end by $0.05, making our new range $5.40 to $5.55, up 9% to 12% versus prior year. Our outlook on free cash flow has also improved based on the strong performance we saw in the first quarter. As Tom will detail in a moment, we are now reporting free cash flow without adjustments for cash pension, NARCO payments and one-time items. So, the guidance range remains the same, but it's reflective of the first quarter performance and importantly without adjustments. In summary, we've got a lot of momentum across the portfolio, which we highlighted in our March Investor Day, with roadmap for future growth and profitability as part of our new five-year target going out to 2018. Innovation and execution, our seed planting for the future, Great Positions in Good Industries, and the power of One Honeywell will continue to differentiate us, allowing us to deliver on these targets and continuing to outperform. So with that I'll turn it over to Tom.
Tom Szlosek:
Thanks, Dave and good morning. On Slide 4, let me walk you through the financial results for the first quarter. Sales of 9.7 billion were up approximately 4% on a reported basis and up 1% on an organic basis. The total sales are right in the middle range we communicated early March of 9.6 billion to 9.8 billion and the organic growth rate was slightly lower than expectation due to timing in aerospace and PMT. As Dave mentioned, excluding defense and space, which is expected to stabilize this year, our organic sales were up 3%. Regionally organic sales were up 1% in the US and EMEA with Europe showing resilience, continued resilience despite some large customer project ramp downs. China grew 14% on an organic basis, with double digit organic growth in each of the business. As we will detail later, we are anticipating organic sales growth to accelerate as the year progresses. Segment profit increased 6% in the quarter with margins expanding 30 basis points to 16.5% or up 50 basis points excluding the dilutive impact of M&A. We had guided to 30 to 50 basis points improvement in the margin rate excluding M&A, so the 50 basis points is on the high end of our expectation. We saw margin expansion three out of the four businesses, productivity continues to be a key driver across the portfolio, offsetting inflation and continued investments for growth. In PMT we did experience some temporary margin contraction because of expected headwinds around unfavourable petrochemical catalyst shipment mix and pricing headwinds in R22 in resins and chemicals. Still PMT closed at 21% segment margin was our highest margin business in the quarter and we continue to have lot of confidence in our ability to expand margin going forward. Below segment profit, I wanted to comment on two items, the first is the gains we experienced from the additional B/E Aero shares and second, the tax rate. On B/E Aero which I will further detail in a minute, the gain was more than offset than restructuring and other charges resulting in a $0.01 unfavorable impact on EPS. The B/E aero gain is not included in our operating margin but the restructuring and other charges are, so operating margins expanded 10 basis points in the quarter compared to the segment margin expansion of 30 basis points. The tax rate of 26.6% was in line with expectation and represent a $0.06 headwind compared to 2013. Earnings per share of $1.28 was a penny higher than where we guided even after we funded incremental $0.01 of additional restructuring action. There are a couple of things to mention on free cash flow, first it was really strong, up 2.5 times 2013 amounts, the improvement came equally from better working capital performance and lower cash contribution to foreign pension plan. Second, we are simplifying how we define free cash flow as Dave mentioned. It’s just free cash flow from operations – just cash flow from operation less capital expenditures, no more adjusting for pension or NARCO. We did this the same way for both 2013 and 2014 so the numbers are comparable and the growth is real. Slide 5 provides a more detailed view of the gain deployment actions in the quarter. As you can see the $0.10 per share gain from the 1.5 million BE aero shares sold in the first quarter was exceeded by funding the restructuring actions and other proactive environmental remedy. So in total an $0.11 headwind to earnings from restructuring activities offset by the B/E aero gain of $0.10, so a net $0.01 headwind to earnings. Restructuring -- repositioning and restructuring represent the majority of the gain deployment, just as you heard in January these actions are intended to proactively realign our businesses for growth and higher asset efficiency and will provide us with meaningful margin and earnings tailwind in future periods. We’re expecting these projects to yield approximately $70 million of run rate savings in future years and each individual project has an excellent ROI. We will continue to maintain a steady pipeline of future projects to fund should the opportunity arise. This as you know continues to be a key element of Honeywell playbook as restructuring funds the exit cost requirements from our key process initiatives and integration activities. A smaller portion of the gain was used to fund incremental environmental charges. This relates to certain remediation project that we believe seeking proactive remedies with the regulators will lead to lower expenses and more cost stability over the long term. Overall these actions position the company well for future earnings growth and as a reminder following the sale of 2.6 million B/E Aero shares in the fourth quarter of last year and the 1.5 million in the first quarter, we still have roughly 1.9 million shares remaining and continue to have a very favorable view of the company. Now let’s take a look at the four business segments. Starting on Slide 6, aerospace sales were down 2% which is in line with our guidance. However excluding the impact of the expected defense and space decline, aero sales were up a solid 3%. Segment margin was up 30 basis points which was actually a bit better than our expectation. From a sales perspective, commercial OE sales were up 1% reflecting strong air transport and business aircraft shipment. We had particularly strong 737 and 787 OE growth and broad strength across business aircraft portfolio. Regional jet sales were lower reflecting lower volume and free of charge shipment. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 4% in the quarter with double-digits spares growth in both ATR and BGA, partially offset by lower R&O revenues, a reflection of fewer maintenance events and timing. The 14% spares growth was driven by the recovery in the US and China and we highlighted this as a challenge in the first quarter of 2013, as well by the continued robust RMU sale in BGA, RMU is repairs modifications and upgrade. Defense and space sales were down 8% which we expect to be the low point from a sales perspective for the year, most of the decline was planned with known program ramp downs and anticipated lower government services and defense aftermarket revenue. On segment profit, the aero team was able to more than offset the impact from the lower sales, to drive the segment margin up 30 basis points, through commercial excellence, productivity net of inflation and favorable aftermarket mix. On Page 7, we are looking at ACS prior to the shift of HPS to PMT. We expect to file an 8K in the second quarter to reflect this change and we will update our historical numbers. However we are perfectly clear when we shared the guidance for Q2 and the rest of the year which I will review in a few minutes, we will do that on the new reporting structure. The ACS organic sales were up 2% and reported sales up 8% both in line with our expectations, the difference of course reflects the growth from M&A in particular Intermec and RAE Systems acquisition. Segment margin was up 40 basis points almost twice our expectation. ESS sales, so the products business, were up 2% with ECC and life safety showing particularly strong growth and more than offsetting the expected declines in scanning and mobility resulting from the ramp down of certain programs. Without this scanning and mobility dilution, ESS sales would have been up 5% with some favorable contribution from weather impacting ECC. We experienced higher U.S. residential sales including on the retail side, modest improvements in Asia and Europe and continued HGR growth in China and India. The Intermec acquisition continues to go well. We're exceeding what were challenging expectations on the pace of integration and on performance. Also the business continues to win a large number of orders that are expected to result in further 2014 growth. Process dilution sales were up 3% on an organic basis in the quarter, with continued good growth in high-margin areas like services and advanced solutions more than offsetting the impact of large project completions. Orders growth also continues to be healthy and backlog is growing, which Darius and the PMT team will see the benefit of in the future. Building solutions sales were essentially flat on an organic basis. We are encouraged by our building solutions orders and the project backlog growth, both showing mid-single digit growth on an organic basis. And we're also experiencing similar growth in the services backlog, not a trend yet, but certainly encouraging development as we look for the rest of the year. ACS margins expanded 40 basis points to 14.2% in the quarter and were up 70 basis points excluding dilutions from M&A. ACS continues to benefit from driving commercial excellence, volume leverage and productivity while at the same time investing for the future. Moving to Page 8, Performance Materials and Technologies, PMT sales were up 2%, in line with our expectations and driven by 9% growth in UOP, offset by 4% declines in Advanced Materials. Although PMT margins contracted 100 basis points, the result was better than our expectations, and at 20.8% PMT was again our highest margin business in the quarter. On sales, UOP experienced significant growth in catalyst volume and gas processing, offset by an unfavorable mix in catalyst shipments and lower process technology licensing sales, resulting from timing and challenging comps. As you know, we are in the midst of adding UOP capacity particularly on the catalyst side, which will help the business to better service $2.4 billion backlog. Advanced Material sales were down 4%. We experienced volume increases in most of the Advanced Materials portfolio, despite the tempering effect of the difficult weather. However, this volume growth was more than offset by unfavorable pricing in fluorine products and resins and chemicals. We do expect the pricing challenges to moderate in the second quarter and throughout the year, as we lap prior year declines. The decline in the segment margin was principally driven by unfavorable catalyst mix in UOP, the price raw challenges in Advanced Materials and contemporary spike in raw material costs due to weather, partially offset by productivity net of inflation. On Slide 9, you can see transportation systems had a very strong quarter with sales up 9%, that's 7% without the benefit of foreign exchange and segment margin up 340 basis points. On the sale side, the increase was principally volume-related. We experienced strong turbo volume growth in our three biggest regions
Elena Doom:
Thanks Tom. Tony, we will now open up the line for our first question.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
Could we drill in a little bit more on the building-related trends in ACS? Tom, you gave us some color there. But just on BSD, I'm curious if there is some geographic color you can shed on what's going on in the firming there, and if there is some color you can shed on energy retrofit versus new construction?
Tom Szlosek:
Yes. I’d say the growth in orders in HPS was high-single digits for the quarter on an organic basis. And that came across very strong in the Americas. Europe was also very good and Asia was a little bit smaller for us, was a little bit down, but in the Americas we’re seeing really good wins in energy, smart grid solutions as well and services, our service bank continues to grow so – across the board pretty good result there on orders perspective and again as we said this is the second quarter where we’re seeing that momentum, so hopefully bodes well for the second half.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
And then when you look at ESS and what’s going on there in particular, and environmental controls, can you elaborate a little bit more on how the quarter played out? It sounds like it was a pretty strong heating-driven quarter. Does that then fall off as we get into the second quarter?
Tom Szlosek:
No, I think – the trend I mean, ECC was very strong, Jeff, in the quarter, mid-to-high single-digits on a growth perspective. Americas was very strong in combustion as well, so both homes and combustion. But the trends will probably be mid-single-digits growth over the course of the year if the conditions kind of stay where they are. So we're encouraged by it.
David Cote:
We also have the new products, Jeff, that we've been introducing and that's helping.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
Can you elaborate a little bit on the call you are making on the euro? So you are just expecting a dollar-euro fade here as we get into the back half of the year? And if that doesn't happen, what kind of hedge that is to your second-half earnings outlook?
Tom Szlosek:
Yeah. I mean, as we said, we're using $1.35 for the second quarter and $1.30 for the second half. I mean we've closed the rate, obviously, to the second quarter and starting to feel more confident of that. We're not trying to be economists or forecasters here; I think it's just more conservatism that we're including. The impact on the second half would not be very significant.
Elena Doom:
Yeah, the average in the second half of last year on the euro, Jeff, I think it was $1.33, roughly $1.34 in that range for second half. So, a little bit of headwind but remember that was the midpoint of our revenue outlook for the second half.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
Roughly speaking, euro spend [ph] is an EPS spend [ph] on a full-year basis. Is that about right?
Elena Doom:
Roughly. Yeah, a little less than that but it’s both and that’s assuming that euro is isolated.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners:
Right. Right. Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Scott Davis with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Scott Davis – Barclays:
I don't think you mentioned particularly Dave. I don't think you mentioned anything about the management changes, and pretty substantial really. Maybe the question really is, because I don't think we have half hour to talk here, but the question is, what do you expect to get better? What's the messaging I guess in the share volume and changes you made, and there are changes in mandates, I mean I was just hoping up to that.
David Cote:
Yeah, I don't think you're going to get lot more from me than what we already talked about, because we try to explain it first time through. I'd say the reason I didn't bring it up is, I kind of viewed it as history and we already went through that, but at the end of the day, the whole point is, just we've got really good people coming up and we need to make sure that we provide opportunities for them to grow, and at the same time, we've got this five year plan that we submitted to that has some pretty big themes that we want to make sure that we drive. So M&A, high growth regions, software focus, QE, and as far as HOS goals and as I look at those, I want to make sure we develop them as a company and this gives us an opportunity with the vice chairs that really make sure that happens, and that we can deliver on that five-year plan, but it's really pretty much what I said, Scott, in the announcement we sent out.
Scott Davis – Barclays:
And not to nitpick, but Defense down 8, I think was a little bit worse than what we had expected. I mean, can you give us a sense of how that transitions through the year? Particularly, when it flattens out and becomes a net neutral? I mean, assuming by 1Q of '15, it's going to be an easy comp, but how are you thinking about the next three quarters?
Tom Szlosek:
The decline, Scott, we start to see them in the second quarter and we will actually probably be flattish in the second half, so for the year we are expecting to be in line with low single-digit decline for the year.
Elena Doom :
We have an easier comp right in the third quarter of this year, so likely to see us an excellent increase in D&S revenue in the third quarter, given the 11% decline in 3Q of 2013.
Scott Davis – Barclays:
And then just a quick one on HPS, can you give us a sense of the order book in that business and how the forward outlook books?
Tom Szlosek:
I’d say, if you look at it from a book to bill ratio pretty strong and from a pure growth percentage we were also mid single digits for the quarter.
Elena Doom:
The long-cycle projects, the bigger project's up a little bit more than that; more in the high single-digits.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Steven Winoker with Sanford Bernstein.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
First question, Tom, particularly what kind of visibility do you have beyond the next BEA sales of that 1.9 million shares to get to additional one-time gains in pipeline that can fun restructuring on a continued -- repositioning on the continued basis, in other words you have made a lot of ambitious goal in that net five-year plan that’s going to require a lot of ongoing repositioning over that five years and we’re seeing it now been, do you have a lot of confidence and visibility into the offset there?
Tom Szlosek:
Obviously the BEA for the last couple years and some of the other transactions in the last couple years have been a nice catalyst for restructuring but even without those – we’ve through operations been able to generate sufficient capacity and that’s the point of a lot of what we have done as well. So that's what I look to and in terms of how we set our plan we do try to incorporate capacity for that on an ongoing basis, now it’s not going to be hundreds of millions of dollars every quarter but we are very mindful of it.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
And in the same way that you moved on cash now that you are reporting on a cleaner basis without the adjustments, is there some thought for doing the same thing on restructuring or other items, or not really?
Tom Szlosek:
Well I am not exactly clear what’s not clean about the restructuring.
Elena Doom :
That was reported in our GAAP earnings, Steve.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
No, I just meant some of your peers choose to just treat the operating earnings all in, that's all?
David Cote :
That’s the point I'd like you to make much more strongly, Steve in all your comments, I have always felt for 10, 12 years we've always included everything and talked about it that way and you allow greater license with some others when it comes to what’s in what's out, we don’t do that.
Steven Winoker - Sanford Bernstein:
And then finally on the book to bill you talked about it just now and I guess in HPS, on the entirety of the long cycle businesses across Honeywell. Could you give us that number?
Tom Szlosek:
It’s actually been nice, aero has been above one and as I said on HPS, also pretty strong.
Elena Doom:
The backlog, Steve, is up just about 1% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Can you just give us the – I guess you talked about the – can you give us the prior guidance or at least PMT new guidance on the prior basis? Is there any change to that up 4%, up 10% – up 4% in revenues and up 10% in margin, up 10 basis points in margin?
Elena Doom :
For the full year you're saying or the second quarter?
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Yeah, for the full year.
Elena Doom :
I think in terms of the PMT's full year sales outlook, it would have been roughly $50 million lessened from the revenue, and margins would have been about 50 basis points less than what we're showing on the current outlook.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
So the fact that I guess, you are kind of tweaking that down but then moving – so I guess moving HPS in there, I mean HPS margins then must be going up a lot?
Tom Szlosek :
It is an ongoing improvement at HPS.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
But I mean I'm getting, I guess I'm getting – I'm getting something, it's like more than 100 basis points – to have that margin go down like that for PMT, but have the combined segment go up 50 basis points, I mean that's a huge increase in HPS, I think limited, I mean there is not that much volume growth there, right?
Tom Szlosek :
It's low to mid-single digits. So, again, you're right,
Elena Doom:
It's certainly better in the second half.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Is that a mix dynamic, is that more software coming through or something, or just blocking and tackling?
Tom Szlosek :
I mean over the last couple of years, as you know in HPS, there has been focus on driving operational improvements in the business. I mean the business is up 200 basis points in the last two years through the end of December, and you are still seeing some continued restructuring actions that are directed to that business. They've also done a nice job of driving growth in services and software sides. So, advanced solutions, so the mix of their revenue has been pretty good as well, so it's a combination of both operational improvements and the portfolio and what they've been emphasizing.
David Cote :
At the end of the day, Steve, your premise is right, take a look at overall PMT, that first quarter struggle continues on a bit during the course of the year, so we expect it's not going to be as good as what we had said initially. And one of the offsets to that is going to be process solutions performance, and what areas we've been able to achieve there, and it's across the broad, it's better growth, better cost performance, better organization. I'm really intrigued with what I see going on in that business and where we should take it.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
Can you take it more into instrumentation?
David Cote :
I would say, you're going to see us continuing to drive our software capability because that's a big part of where we differentiate ourselves is just to on a breaks off [ph] on the software side netted value there.
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan:
And then Dave, any change in the way you view the Advanced Materials business? I mean, you've combined HPS and UOP now clearly like a very attractive play on this whole global petrochem scenes out there. We kind of continue to talk about flooring pricing as a headwind, things that probably most multi-industry companies don't talk about. Is there any kind of change on the portfolio view especially in the context of the liquidity and high valuations out there? And quite frankly, the multiple for you guys remains with a discount. Any thought around how core that business is over the long-term?
David Cote :
I would say the fun is the same and that's -- it is still core. One of the things that – getting back to the diversity of opportunity, I like having a lot of that’s out there so that there is never one thing that really [indiscernible] me, but there is also never any one thing that really takes the whole thing take off. I think it just creates more sustainability, which means that to have all the moving pieces moving in the same positive direction at the same time or negative direction is unlikely. So, what we're seeing right now in particularly resins and chemicals and in fluorine there's a couple of unique aspects that are causing them to not perform as well as we might like. But at the same time, I know those things are going to be changing. So if I take resins and chemicals, when I take a look at the competitive positioning, it is still the lowest cost producer in the world, and that includes being able to land products in China cheaper than the Chinese can manufacture it domestically. So, we've got an advantage there and I think what you'll probably see is capacity elsewhere in the industry coming out over time and moving our pricing dynamic up. I think with the fluorine, it's largely driven by patents, and when you have something come off-patents, well, pricing has to get hit; that's what you're seeing now. However, we have new patents coming in with the HFO stuff and that's gearing up now. As a result of that, we're going to see some really nice performance out of the fluorines business over the next few years. So, I would kind of liken it more to, we've got this unusual dynamic going on in both of these businesses that's going to be turning over the next year or so and we'll benefit from it. So they're still good businesses. It's just you can't have every business performing at the same time, it just doesn't work.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley:
So, just wanted to dig into the ACS PMT potential synergies there. You've been talking about the go-to-market potential there for a while now, we have implementation [ph]. So I'm wondering Dave, do we – should we expect there to be more integration opportunities to businesses going forward, or is it basically the same as before just they now happen to be in a same segment?
David Cote :
Probably somewhere in between. We've got to wait for Darius to finish his work there on what he thinks. But at the end of the day there is stuff that is common, and say, 60% of the customers that HPS has and the same UOP has, if you take a look at who they deal with, it should be about the same. The technology, there should be even greater overlap than there is, because UOP is developing processes and HPS is developing the controls that manage the process, and while we've done some of that already, there should be more opportunity there. On the other side you have UOP, which is more obviously of a chemical business, and some on the mechanical side when it comes to how to run those chemicals. And you've got HPS, which is largely a software business, and that's not going to change. I have a tough time seeing the chemical guys running the software engineering or vice versa. So, as to where I see, I think it's going to be somewhere in between and I'm waiting for Darius to finish his review on what he thinks makes the most sense here.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley:
No that makes sense. And then, switching to TS, 15.5% OM, I think is the best you've ever done in the quarter, given that there have been some changes in the portfolio over that time frame, but 15.5 really stood out to me, and within that number, is friction still losing money or is it back to breakeven?
David Cote :
It's nearing breakeven. It was probably a third of the overall margin improvement for the quarter for Transportation Systems.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley:
And then another quick one. The free cash flow guidance, just to clarify that, that includes the cash taxes on [indiscernible]?
Tom Szlosek :
Yes, it does.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Howard Rubel with Jefferies.
Howard Rubel – Jefferies:
I have one ACS question and then one on another item. First, on ACS, we've been seeing –
David Cote :
By the way, Howard, hi.
Howard Rubel :
Hello Dave, and in fact you know, this new management structure eliminates confusion between you and the CFO now. So I appreciate that. In any event, Dave, good morning. With respect to U.S. housing, it's been a little sloppy on the starts and I know that's small relative to your business. Have you seen anything there that's an indication of pent-up demand or some change in the overall market?
Tom Szlosek :
I don't think – when you look at our revenues in ACS, Howard, we don't have a precise way of determining where every product ends up whether it's the commercial setting or residential setting, but with that said, there are very strong verticals within ACS in the last couple of quarters. I'd point to the retail sales in particular for ECC, that have been a strong indication. Consumers are in fact very interested in energy-related products, thermostats and other things when it comes [ph].
Howard Rubel – Jefferies:
And then to follow-up on another subject, you've used a lot of the discretionary gains to go after environmental so that you're reducing the long-term obligations there. Could you just address for a moment Dave, what you've done so that the entire process or the enterprise has gone after eliminating legacy liabilities, so that the result is that you don't have to find – well, use gains to fund prior liabilities but in fact can use them to, I'll call it advance the enterprise?
David Cote :
Well, I look at both as advancing the enterprise, but to your point, one of them is eliminating a negative as opposed to accentuating a positive. As you know, I started this effort 12 years ago now and thinking that – my first job was given that if you take a look at all of our products and all the stuff we do around the world, we're basically on the side of the angels with everything we do, whether it's energy efficiency, clean energy generation, safety, security, all those macro trends are good things for the world, yet we had the legacy liability that was just uncomfortable and very inconsistent with our message. I also felt that all this stuff cost you more over time and that our previous strategy of just waiting till we lost in core was not a good one, and we're prepared to do this proactively. Well, we are at a point now where we can actually see the end of the road on this. To the extent we can accelerate meeting that ends of the road; well, I'm all in favor of it. I'd say we're not too far away now, Howard, from being at that point where we've been able to accelerate along these issues, make it less expensive to get done, because either our remediation is a quicker, more effective or we're able to resolve it faster and I can see that within our five-year plan horizon which is a nice place to be.
Howard Rubel – Jefferies:
I mean, is there any way to quantify it? I mean it could be $50 million, $100 million a year in potential cost avoidance down the road?
David Cote :
Yeah, my view is it's more on the – I'll try not to be too bullish yet until I actually know. But I see that's the right kind of range to think about it, Howard.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Peter Arment with Sterne Agee.
Peter Arment - Sterne Agee:
My question is really on the security [ph] kind of your first half guidance in aerospace versus the second half. I'm surprised that second half isn't showing up stronger given just kind of the overlay with 2% growth you're showing. You've got OE growth aftermarket, I think it's flight hours growth, so at least mid-single digits. So I'm just wondering given that defense is probably going to be closer to flat in the second half, at least that's what it seems like given you're 8% down this quarter, what am I missing? I guess, is it just conservatism at this point given the sense, or is there something else?
Tom Szlosek :
No, I don’t think you're missing anything. On the defense side, as Elena said, we'll get a nice bump in the third quarter because of the comps that we had last year. Overall, the second half is – will be what you see there, but for the year, we're still going to be down in defense. In terms of first half to second half, the R&O timing that we saw in the first quarter, we're going to start seeing that starting, so that's going to help us quite a bit in the second half. I mentioned the BGAs. So, I think the 2% that we're showing for the full year is a full reflection of all the equipment deck that we've got.
Elena Doom :
Peter, I'm going to add, we also have some launch contributions factored into the second half outlook for BGA OE. Its' not significant, but obviously that does impact the – it's currently scheduled for the third quarter, which would be, obviously, a drag on revenues.
Peter Arment - Sterne Agee:
And then just quickly on just – on the aftermarket trends in general, are you seeing any differences from a geography standpoint? I mean, it seems China was up 14%, but that seems to be a very volatile number. I remember two years ago it was up 40% one quarter. So, what are you seeing in general there?
Elena Doom :
In terms of the aftermarket?
Peter Arment - Sterne Agee:
Yeah, just from a geography standpoint, any differences that you can call out?
Elena Doom :
Yeah, well, you recall in the fourth quarter the U.S. saw high double-digit spare growth. We continue to see that in the first quarter for this year in terms of the ATR spares. Europe, call it, relatively muted growth and China obviously is a big comp but versus an easier comp in the first quarter of last year.
David Cote :
I think Peter, I dropped) you in the past on flight hours versus how spares orders go?
Peter Arment - Sterne Agee:
I'm sorry Dave, can you repeat that?
David Cote :
I think I've drawn my little chart for you in the past showing how flight hours grow at a relatively stable rate, but spares ordering around those flight hours vary significantly.
Peter Arment - Sterne Agee:
Yes you have, yeah, correct.
David Cote :
If I take a look at China that more of what you're seeing, the 40% a few years ago was a pre-buy given the tightening, what you saw after that was the tightening, now what you're seeing is catchup. At some point it’s coming back [ph]
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Shannon O'Callaghan with Nomura.
Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura:
Just maybe a little follow-up on the commercial aero piece, in terms of the OE sales growth, I mean, in the quarter, can you give us the spilt kind of AT regional BGA and how that flows as you're talking about the second half OE acceleration?
Elena Doom :
So, Shannon, on the ATR OE component of it and this is [indiscernible] what we talked about in the December outlook call and again in the fourth quarter earnings release, but you are seeing very strong growth on the air transport side offset by declines in regional jet sales. Also we have some free-of-charge systems that again we're expensing or recognizing as we're incurring them. Those continue – that's the outlook really for the duration of this year. So the fundamentals don't change, more in flat. So, that's core growth and I guess you would maybe likely expect to see where we're just plugging in the air transport component of it, but the regional piece is obviously putting a drag on our overall sales.
Tom Szlosek :
I'd add on the BGA side, the first quarter growth that you saw, we'll continue to throughout the course of the year, so a mid-single digit growth on BGA when we look for the year.
Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura:
When does the regional kind of pressure ease?
Elena Doom :
We're hoping that that certainly gets better in 2015, but largely dependent upon the overall market.
Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura:
Just on free cash flow, definitely applaud the changed definition, so thanks for that. I was just wondering if you have the kind of updated numbers for this year of what you've built in for NARCO pension and the cash taxes in the appendix you have them for sort of what they were in '13, do you have those numbers of what you've baked in for '14?
Elena Doom :
In terms of the big bucket, Shannon, I'll just walk through a few of them. On cash pensions, we're now attracting zero in 2014 for cash pension and that's versus the previous estimate of about $100 million before contributions. On the NARCO component of it, we were previously excluding the establishment payments for NARCO, which were roughly, call it $200 million pre-tax and that's still the expectation, but we've just now embedded that in for free cash flow forecast.
Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura:
And obviously you've got to wait I guess until the – well no, you would know the cash taxes right, so what about the available for sale piece, what's that?
Tom Szlosek :
You're talking about on the BU [ph] share?
Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura:
Yeah, yeah, because you're baking that in now too right?
Tom Szlosek :
Yeah, the first quarter impact was included in the Q1 free cash flow.
Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura:
Okay, right. So, that's already baked in and there's no more.
Elena Doom :
Yeah.
Elena Doom :
All right, Tony, we'll now conclude today's call. I want to turn it over to Dave Cote for any final remarks.
David Cote :
All right, thanks guys. Well, we've had a nice start to the year, and as a result we feel confident in raising total year guidance for both earnings per share and cash flow, outperforming in the short-term, while seed planting for the long-term continues to be an important dynamic for us. We intend to not just outperform this year, but also over the next five years. So, thank you for listening and I hope all of you have a marvellous Easter weekend. See you.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.