• Tobacco
  • Consumer Defensive
Altria Group, Inc. logo
Altria Group, Inc.
MO · US · NYSE
50.43
USD
+0.63
(1.25%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Jody L. Begley Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer 2.87M
Mr. Charles N. Whitaker Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer & Chief Compliance Officer 1.04M
Mr. Mac Livingston Vice President of Investor Relations --
Ms. Jennifer Hunter Senior Vice President of Corporate Citizenship & Chief Sustainability Officer - Altria Client Services LLC --
Ms. Shannon Leistra President & Chief Executive Officer of NJOY, LLC --
Ms. Paige Magness Senior Vice President of Regulatory Affairs - Altria Client Services LLC --
Ms. Heather A. Newman Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy & Growth Officer 2.18M
Mr. Robert A. McCarter III Executive Vice President & General Counsel --
Mr. William F. Gifford Jr. Chief Executive Officer & Director 8.3M
Mr. Salvatore Mancuso Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 2.85M
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-06-28 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 605 0
2024-05-16 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Common Stock 3800 0
2024-05-16 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Common Stock 3800 0
2024-05-16 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 326 0
2024-05-16 Clarke Ian L.T. director A - A-Award Common Stock 3800 0
2024-05-16 SHANKS VIRGINIA E director A - A-Award Common Stock 3800 0
2024-05-16 YZAGUIRRE MARIO MAX director A - A-Award Common Stock 3800 0
2024-05-16 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Common Stock 7057 0
2024-05-16 Connelly Marjorie Mary director A - A-Award Common Stock 3800 0
2024-05-16 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Common Stock 3800 0
2024-05-16 Davis Robert Matthews director A - A-Award Common Stock 3800 0
2024-05-02 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO D - S-Sale Common Stock 22487 43.9525
2024-04-01 McCarter Robert A. III EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 34463 0
2024-03-29 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 628 0
2024-04-01 McCarter Robert A. III EVP & General Counsel D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-02-28 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 5868 0
2024-02-28 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4779 40.9
2024-02-28 Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off A - A-Award Common Stock 9294 0
2024-02-28 Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off D - F-InKind Common Stock 7944 40.9
2024-02-28 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 2504 0
2024-02-28 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2129 40.9
2024-02-28 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 15744 0
2024-02-28 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 15841 40.9
2024-02-28 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1330 0
2024-02-28 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 1210 40.9
2024-02-28 Begley Jody L EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 15744 0
2024-02-28 Begley Jody L EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 15852 40.9
2024-02-28 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 46936 0
2024-02-28 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 54675 40.9
2024-02-28 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 15744 0
2024-02-28 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 15964 40.9
2024-02-28 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 2309 0
2024-02-28 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC D - F-InKind Common Stock 1963 40.9
2024-02-27 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 16765 0
2024-02-27 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 4237 0
2024-02-27 Begley Jody L EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 29634 0
2024-02-27 Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off A - A-Award Common Stock 18951 0
2024-02-27 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 4712 0
2024-02-27 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 29634 0
2024-02-27 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 4123 0
2024-02-27 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 88718 0
2024-02-15 MUNOZ GEORGE director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock Units 1787 0
2023-12-29 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 683 0
2023-11-10 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC D - G-Gift Common Stock 150 0
2023-11-06 Davis Robert Matthews director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1200 40.4995
2023-11-06 Clarke Ian L.T. director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1100 40.5686
2023-10-30 Begley Jody L EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 11001 39.317
2023-10-30 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 11001 39.317
2023-10-30 Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off D - F-InKind Common Stock 5134 39.317
2023-09-29 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 652 0
2023-06-30 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 608 0
2023-06-01 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - I-Discretionary Phantom Stock Units 3149 0
2023-05-18 Connelly Marjorie Mary director A - A-Award Common Stock 3901 0
2023-05-18 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Common Stock 7244 0
2023-05-18 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Common Stock 3901 0
2023-05-18 Davis Robert Matthews director A - A-Award Common Stock 3901 0
2023-05-18 Hernandez Jacinto J director A - A-Award Common Stock 3901 0
2023-05-18 Clarke Ian L.T. director A - A-Award Common Stock 3901 0
2023-05-18 YZAGUIRRE MARIO MAX director A - A-Award Common Stock 3901 0
2023-05-18 Sakkab Nabil Y director A - A-Award Common Stock 3901 0
2023-05-18 SHANKS VIRGINIA E director A - A-Award Common Stock 3901 0
2023-05-18 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Common Stock 3901 0
2023-05-18 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Common Stock 3901 0
2023-05-18 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 334 0
2023-05-15 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 2200 0
2023-03-31 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 617 0
2023-02-28 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 18855 0
2023-02-28 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 22477 46.54
2023-02-28 Begley Jody L EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 11030 0
2023-02-28 Begley Jody L EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 10226 46.54
2023-02-28 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 3035 0
2023-02-28 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2482 46.54
2023-02-28 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1061 0
2023-02-28 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 949 46.54
2023-02-28 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 11030 0
2023-02-28 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 10247 46.54
2023-02-28 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 5571 0
2023-02-28 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4426 46.54
2023-02-28 Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off A - A-Award Common Stock 3857 0
2023-02-28 Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off D - F-InKind Common Stock 3063 46.54
2023-02-28 Garnick Murray R Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 18855 0
2023-02-28 Garnick Murray R Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 19583 46.54
2023-02-28 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 2760 0
2023-02-28 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC D - F-InKind Common Stock 2259 46.54
2023-02-27 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 4367 0
2023-02-27 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 3580 0
2023-02-27 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 70311 0
2023-02-27 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 14555 0
2023-02-27 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 4053 0
2023-02-27 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 25728 0
2023-02-27 Begley Jody L EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 25728 0
2023-02-27 Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off A - A-Award Common Stock 17719 0
2023-02-27 Garnick Murray R Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 25728 0
2023-02-15 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
2023-02-15 MUNOZ GEORGE director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock Units 1296 0
2023-02-09 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 20142 46.5
2022-12-30 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 602 45.705
2022-12-30 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 602 0
2022-11-10 KIELY W LEO III director A - G-Gift Common Stock 3372 0
2022-11-10 KIELY W LEO III director D - G-Gift Common Stock 3372 0
2022-11-01 Hernandez Jacinto J director D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-10-14 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
2022-10-14 MUNOZ GEORGE director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock Units 695 45.8913
2022-10-14 MUNOZ GEORGE director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock Units 695 0
2022-09-30 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 672 40.92
2022-09-30 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 672 0
2022-06-30 Strahlman Ellen R A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 661 41.5922
2022-06-30 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 661 0
2022-05-25 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 1910 0
2022-05-19 Connelly Marjorie Mary A - A-Award Common Stock 3372 0
2022-05-19 YZAGUIRRE MARIO MAX A - A-Award Common Stock 3372 0
2022-05-19 YZAGUIRRE MARIO MAX director D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-05-19 KIELY W LEO III A - A-Award Common Stock 3372 0
2022-05-19 Strahlman Ellen R A - A-Award Common Stock 3372 0
2022-05-19 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 289 0
2022-05-19 McQUADE KATHRYN B. A - A-Award Common Stock 6263 0
2022-05-19 Clarke Ian L.T. A - A-Award Common Stock 3372 0
2022-05-19 Clarke Ian L.T. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1309 51.9
2022-05-19 Davis Robert Matthews A - A-Award Common Stock 3372 0
2022-05-19 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J A - A-Award Common Stock 3372 0
2022-05-19 MUNOZ GEORGE A - A-Award Common Stock 3372 0
2022-05-19 SHANKS VIRGINIA E A - A-Award Common Stock 3372 0
2022-05-19 Sakkab Nabil Y A - A-Award Common Stock 3372 0
2022-05-19 Clarke Ian L.T. director D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-03-31 Strahlman Ellen R A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 527 52.18
2022-03-31 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 527 0
2022-02-28 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 958 0
2022-02-28 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1458 51.47
2022-02-28 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 2010 0
2022-02-28 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2949 51.47
2022-02-28 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 545 51.47
2022-02-28 Begley Jody L EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 1933 0
2022-02-28 Begley Jody L EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2834 51.47
2022-02-28 Garnick Murray R Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 6541 0
2022-02-28 Garnick Murray R Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 11756 51.47
2022-02-28 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 1779 0
2022-02-28 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2602 51.47
2022-02-28 Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off A - A-Award Common Stock 1041 0
2022-02-28 Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off D - F-InKind Common Stock 1525 51.47
2022-02-28 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 958 0
2022-02-28 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC D - F-InKind Common Stock 1451 51.47
2022-02-28 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 6541 0
2022-02-28 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 12098 51.47
2022-02-24 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 78396 0
2022-02-24 Begley Jody L EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 27439 0
2022-02-24 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 2533 0
2022-02-24 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 24273 0
2022-02-24 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 13732 0
2022-02-24 Newman Heather A. SVP, Corporate Strategy A - A-Award Common Stock 16717 0
2022-02-24 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 3546 0
2022-02-24 Garnick Murray R Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 24273 0
2022-02-24 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 4391 0
2022-02-15 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
2022-02-15 MUNOZ GEORGE director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock Units 1199 0
2018-06-01 Begley Jody L EVP and COO D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-12-31 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 582 0
2021-10-27 Davis Robert Matthew director I - Common Stock 0 0
2021-10-27 Connelly Marjorie Mary director D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-10-26 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 14550 0
2021-10-26 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 14550 0
2021-09-30 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 586 0
2021-09-30 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 586 0
2021-07-02 Begley Jody L EVP and COO A - W-Will Common Stock 16 0
2021-08-04 KIELY W LEO III director A - G-Gift Common Stock 3517 0
2021-08-04 KIELY W LEO III director D - G-Gift Common Stock 3517 0
2021-06-25 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 2119 0
2021-06-30 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 581 0
2021-06-30 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 581 0
2021-05-26 Strahlman Ellen R director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 2000 49.5878
2021-05-20 Sakkab Nabil Y director A - A-Award Common Stock 3517 0
2021-05-20 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Common Stock 3517 0
2021-05-20 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 301 0
2021-05-20 DEVITRE DINYAR S director A - A-Award Common Stock 3517 0
2021-05-20 KIELY W LEO III director A - A-Award Common Stock 3517 0
2021-05-20 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Common Stock 3517 0
2021-05-20 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Common Stock 3517 0
2021-05-20 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 804 0
2021-05-20 Newman Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 3517 0
2021-05-20 CASTEEN JOHN T III director A - A-Award Common Stock 3517 0
2021-05-20 SHANKS VIRGINIA E director A - A-Award Common Stock 3517 0
2021-05-20 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Common Stock 6531 0
2021-03-31 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 269 0
2021-03-31 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 537 0
2021-03-31 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 537 0
2021-02-25 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 10024 0
2021-02-25 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 3943 0
2021-02-25 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 26897 0
2021-02-25 Newman Heather A. Sr. VP, Corporate Strategy A - A-Award Common Stock 15878 0
2021-02-25 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 80190 0
2021-02-25 Garnick Murray R Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 26897 0
2021-02-25 Begley Jody L EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 26897 0
2021-02-25 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 2273 0
2021-02-25 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 4277 0
2021-02-12 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
2021-02-12 MUNOZ GEORGE director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock Units 1105 0
2021-02-11 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 1491 0
2021-02-11 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2325 43.55
2021-02-11 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 605 0
2021-02-11 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC D - F-InKind Common Stock 1023 43.55
2021-02-11 Newman Heather A. Sr. VP, Corporate Strategy A - A-Award Common Stock 413 0
2021-02-11 Newman Heather A. Sr. VP, Corporate Strategy D - F-InKind Common Stock 676 43.55
2021-02-11 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 1410 0
2021-02-11 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2169 43.55
2021-02-11 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 4692 0
2021-02-11 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 7932 43.55
2021-02-11 Garnick Murray R Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 4171 0
2021-02-11 Garnick Murray R Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 6492 43.55
2021-02-11 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 407 43.55
2021-02-11 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 672 0
2021-02-11 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1131 43.55
2021-02-11 Begley Jody L EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 781 0
2021-02-11 Begley Jody L EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1211 43.55
2020-12-31 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 677 0
2020-12-31 Strahlman Ellen R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 441 0
2020-12-31 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 338 0
2020-11-16 Whitaker Charles N. Sr. VP, Chief HR Off. & CCO D - S-Sale Common Stock 11500 40.9817
2020-11-02 Strahlman Ellen R director D - Common Stock 0 0
2020-11-02 Strahlman Ellen R director D - Common Stock 0 0
2020-09-30 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 712 0
2020-09-30 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 356 0
2020-08-19 Newman Heather A. SVP, Corporate Strategy A - A-Award Common Stock 22905 0
2020-08-19 Whitaker Charles N. SVP Chief HR Officer &CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 22905 0
2020-08-19 Mancuso Salvatore Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 34357 0
2020-08-12 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 2278 0
2020-06-30 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 702 0
2020-06-30 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 351 0
2020-06-09 KIELY W LEO III director A - G-Gift Common Stock 4866 0
2020-06-09 KIELY W LEO III director D - G-Gift Common Stock 4866 0
2020-05-14 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Common Stock 4866 0
2020-05-14 SHANKS VIRGINIA E director A - A-Award Common Stock 4866 0
2020-05-14 KIELY W LEO III director A - A-Award Common Stock 4866 0
2020-05-14 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Common Stock 4866 0
2020-05-14 Sakkab Nabil Y director A - A-Award Common Stock 4866 0
2020-05-14 DEVITRE DINYAR S director A - A-Award Common Stock 4866 0
2020-05-14 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Common Stock 4866 0
2020-05-14 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 1112 0
2020-05-14 CASTEEN JOHN T III director A - A-Award Common Stock 4866 0
2020-05-14 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Common Stock 9036 0
2020-05-14 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 2224 0
2020-05-14 Newman Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 4866 0
2020-04-16 Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 51540 0
2020-03-31 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 363 0
2020-03-31 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 726 0
2020-02-26 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp.Secy. & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 4535 0
2020-02-26 Whitaker Charles N. SVP Chief HR Officer &CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 9154 0
2020-02-26 Mancuso Salvatore SVP, Finance & Procurement A - A-Award Common Stock 18125 0
2020-02-26 Willard Howard A. Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 88017 0
2020-02-26 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 4986 0
2020-02-26 Begley Jody L SVP, Tobacco Products A - A-Award Common Stock 18125 0
2020-02-26 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1743 0
2020-02-26 Gifford William F. Jr. Vice Chairman & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 30982 0
2020-02-26 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 30982 0
2020-02-26 Newman Heather A. SVP, Corporate Strategy A - A-Award Common Stock 6338 0
2020-02-14 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
2020-02-14 MUNOZ GEORGE director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock Units 1001 0
2020-02-11 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp.Secy. & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 739 0
2020-02-11 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp.Secy. & Assoc. GC D - F-InKind Common Stock 818 46.2
2020-02-11 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 1108 0
2020-02-11 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1183 46.2
2020-02-11 Newman Heather A. SVP, Corporate Strategy A - A-Award Common Stock 671 0
2020-02-11 Newman Heather A. SVP, Corporate Strategy D - F-InKind Common Stock 2390 46.2
2020-02-11 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 459 46.2
2020-02-11 Willard Howard A. Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 8311 0
2020-02-11 Willard Howard A. Chairman & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 22053 46.2
2020-02-11 Gifford William F. Jr. Vice Chairman & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 8311 0
2020-02-11 Gifford William F. Jr. Vice Chairman & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 21864 46.2
2020-02-11 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 4571 0
2020-02-11 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 12066 46.2
2020-02-11 Begley Jody L SVP, Tobacco Products A - A-Award Common Stock 1478 0
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2020-01-01 Newman Heather A. SVP, Corporate Strategy I - Common Stock 0 0
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2019-12-31 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 276 0
2019-12-31 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 552 0
2019-12-31 Newman Mark director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 276 0
2019-09-30 Newman Mark director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 338 0
2019-09-30 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 677 0
2019-09-30 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 338 0
2019-06-28 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 288 0
2019-06-28 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 577 0
2019-06-28 Newman Mark director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 288 0
2019-06-06 KIELY W LEO III director A - G-Gift Common Stock 3345 0
2019-06-06 KIELY W LEO III director D - G-Gift Common Stock 3345 0
2019-05-22 Gifford William F. Jr. Vice Chairman & CFO D - G-Gift Common Stock 2000 0
2019-05-22 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp.Secy. & Assoc. GC D - S-Sale Common Stock 2000 52.4845
2019-05-16 SHANKS VIRGINIA E director A - A-Award Common Stock 3345 0
2019-05-16 Sakkab Nabil Y director A - A-Award Common Stock 3345 0
2019-05-16 Newman Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 3345 0
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2019-05-16 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Common Stock 3345 0
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2019-05-16 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Common Stock 3345 0
2019-05-16 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
2019-05-16 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Common Stock 3345 0
2019-05-16 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 287 0
2019-05-16 KIELY W LEO III director A - A-Award Common Stock 3345 0
2019-05-16 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Common Stock 3345 0
2019-05-16 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 334 0
2019-05-16 DEVITRE DINYAR S director A - A-Award Common Stock 3345 0
2019-05-16 CASTEEN JOHN T III director A - A-Award Common Stock 3345 0
2019-05-02 Begley Jody L SVP, Tobacco Products D - S-Sale Common Stock 3250 53.3823
2019-05-01 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President and Controller D - Common Stock 0 0
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2019-05-01 D'Ambrosia Steve Vice President and Controller I - Common Stock 0 0
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2019-03-29 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 481 0
2019-03-29 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 240 0
2019-02-26 Willard Howard A. Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 69132 0
2019-02-26 Whitaker Charles N. SVP Chief HR Officer &CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 6891 0
2019-02-26 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp.Secy. & Assoc. GC A - A-Award Common Stock 3711 0
2019-02-26 Mancuso Salvatore SVP, Finance & Procurement A - A-Award Common Stock 7789 0
2019-02-26 Gifford William F. Jr. Vice Chairman & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 25349 0
2019-02-26 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 25349 0
2019-02-26 Crosthwaite Kevin C Jr SVP,Chief Strat.&GrowthOfficer A - A-Award Common Stock 8388 0
2019-02-26 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 3711 0
2019-02-26 Begley Jody L SVP, Tobacco Products A - A-Award Common Stock 7490 0
2019-02-25 Sakkab Nabil Y director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1352 52.1062
2019-02-22 Feldman Ivan S. Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 6802 51.1817
2019-02-21 Sakkab Nabil Y director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1032 50.42
2019-02-15 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
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2019-02-07 Whitaker Charles N. SVP Chief HR Officer &CCO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3617 48.835
2019-02-07 Mancuso Salvatore SVP, Finance & Procurement D - F-InKind Common Stock 3675 48.835
2019-02-07 Johnson Craig A. Pres&CEO, Altria Grp Dist. Co. D - F-InKind Common Stock 6415 48.835
2019-02-07 Feldman Ivan S. Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 1316 48.835
2019-02-07 Begley Jody L SVP, Tobacco Products D - F-InKind Common Stock 1841 48.835
2019-02-07 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 770 48.835
2019-02-07 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp.Secy. & Assoc. GC D - F-InKind Common Stock 865 48.835
2019-02-07 Crosthwaite Kevin C Jr SVP,Chief Strat.&GrowthOfficer D - F-InKind Common Stock 884 48.835
2019-02-07 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 5932 48.835
2019-02-07 Gifford William F. Jr. Vice Chairman & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 10274 48.835
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2018-12-31 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 561 0
2018-12-31 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 281 0
2018-10-23 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 24391 0
2018-10-23 Crosthwaite Kevin C Jr SVP&Chief Growth Officer, ALCS A - A-Award Common Stock 24391 0
2018-10-23 Begley Jody L SVP, Tobacco Products A - A-Award Common Stock 24391 0
2018-05-23 KIELY W LEO III director A - G-Gift Common Stock 3165 0
2018-05-23 KIELY W LEO III director D - G-Gift Common Stock 3165 0
2018-09-28 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 454 0
2018-09-28 Newman Mark director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 227 0
2018-09-28 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 227 0
2018-09-19 Johnson Craig A. Pres&CEO, Altria Grp Dist. Co. D - F-InKind Common Stock 618 62.285
2018-08-29 DEVITRE DINYAR S director D - S-Sale Common Stock 3165 58.441
2018-06-29 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 241 0
2018-06-29 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 481 0
2018-06-29 Newman Mark director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 241 0
2018-06-01 Begley Jody L SVP,Tobacco Products D - Common Stock 0 0
2018-06-01 Begley Jody L SVP,Tobacco Products I - Common Stock 0 0
2018-05-17 DEVITRE DINYAR S director A - A-Award Common Stock 3165 0
2018-05-18 DEVITRE DINYAR S director D - G-Gift Common Stock 30000 0
2018-05-17 Willard Howard A. Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 48825 0
2018-05-17 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Common Stock 3165 0
2018-05-17 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 271 0
2018-05-17 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Common Stock 3165 0
2018-05-17 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 316 0
2018-05-17 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Common Stock 3165 0
2018-05-17 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
2018-05-17 SHANKS VIRGINIA E director A - A-Award Common Stock 3165 0
2018-05-17 Newman Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 3165 0
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2018-05-17 CASTEEN JOHN T III director A - A-Award Common Stock 3165 0
2018-05-17 KIELY W LEO III director A - A-Award Common Stock 3165 0
2018-05-17 Sakkab Nabil Y director A - A-Award Common Stock 3165 0
2018-05-17 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - A-Award Common Stock 3165 0
2018-05-17 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
2018-04-30 Newman Mark director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 5345 56.1898
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2018-03-30 Newman Mark director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 144 0
2018-03-30 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 439 0
2018-03-30 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 219 0
2018-03-02 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp.Secy. & Assoc. GC D - S-Sale Common Stock 3200 62.34
2018-03-02 Quigley Brian W. President & CEO, USSTC D - S-Sale Common Stock 3464 62.4
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2018-03-01 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director D - I-Discretionary Phantom Stock Units 1703 0
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2018-02-09 Dillard James E III SVP, Research, Dev. & Sciences D - S-Sale Common Stock 6500 63.125
2018-02-07 Feldman Ivan S. Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 1099 67.24
2018-02-07 Johnson Craig A. Pres&CEO, Altria Grp Dist. Co. D - F-InKind Common Stock 7420 67.24
2018-02-08 Johnson Craig A. Pres&CEO, Altria Grp Dist. Co. D - S-Sale Common Stock 14953 66.5909
2018-02-07 Barrington Martin J. Chairman, CEO & President D - F-InKind Common Stock 44587 67.24
2018-02-07 Whitaker Charles N. SVP HR Compliance InfoSvcs&CCO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3898 67.24
2018-02-07 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 880 67.24
2018-02-07 Crosthwaite Kevin C Jr President & CEO, PM USA Inc. D - F-InKind Common Stock 888 67.24
2018-02-07 Dillard James E III SVP, Research, Dev. & Sciences D - F-InKind Common Stock 3941 67.24
2018-02-07 Quigley Brian W. President & CEO, USSTC D - F-InKind Common Stock 1586 67.24
2018-02-07 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp.Secy. & Assoc. GC D - F-InKind Common Stock 838 67.24
2018-02-07 Willard Howard A. EVP & Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 11595 67.24
2018-02-07 Gifford William F. Jr. EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 7418 67.24
2018-02-07 Mancuso Salvatore SVP, Strat., Plng&Procurement D - F-InKind Common Stock 1913 67.24
2018-02-07 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 7385 67.24
2018-02-01 Newman Mark director D - Common Stock 0 0
2018-01-30 Willard Howard A. EVP & Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 19351 0
2018-01-30 Whitaker Charles N. SVP HR Compliance InfoSvcs&CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 6150 0
2018-01-30 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR VP, Corp.Secy. & Asst GC A - A-Award Common Stock 2495 0
2018-01-30 Quigley Brian W. President & CEO, USSTC A - A-Award Common Stock 3011 0
2018-01-30 Mancuso Salvatore SVP, Strat., Plng&Procurement A - A-Award Common Stock 5814 0
2018-01-30 Johnson Craig A. Pres&CEO, Altria Grp Dist. Co. A - A-Award Common Stock 15051 0
2018-01-31 Gifford William F. Jr. EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 49847 0
2018-01-30 Gifford William F. Jr. EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 19351 0
2018-01-30 Garnick Murray R EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 17201 0
2018-01-30 Feldman Ivan S. Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 2409 0
2018-01-30 Dillard James E III SVP, Research, Dev. & Sciences A - A-Award Common Stock 6881 0
2018-01-30 Crosthwaite Kevin C Jr President & CEO, PM USA Inc. A - A-Award Common Stock 5591 0
2018-01-30 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 2770 0
2017-12-29 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 192 0
2017-12-29 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 384 0
2017-11-17 DEVITRE DINYAR S director D - G-Gift Common Stock 15150 0
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2017-09-29 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 431 0
2017-09-21 DEVITRE DINYAR S director D - S-Sale Common Stock 32000 61.22
2017-08-10 Barrington Martin J. Chairman, CEO & President D - S-Sale Common Stock 15300 65.0267
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2017-07-31 DEVITRE DINYAR S director D - G-Gift Common Stock 8107 0
2017-08-02 DEVITRE DINYAR S director D - G-Gift Common Stock 8107 0
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2017-06-30 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 369 0
2017-05-25 KIELY W LEO III director A - G-Gift Common Stock 2481 0
2017-05-25 KIELY W LEO III director D - G-Gift Common Stock 2481 0
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2017-05-18 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Common Stock 2481 0
2017-05-18 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 212 0
2017-05-18 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Common Stock 2481 0
2017-05-18 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 248 0
2017-05-18 Sakkab Nabil Y director A - A-Award Common Stock 2481 0
2017-05-18 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Common Stock 2481 0
2017-05-18 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
2017-05-18 KIELY W LEO III director A - A-Award Common Stock 2481 0
2017-05-18 DEVITRE DINYAR S director A - A-Award Common Stock 2481 0
2017-05-18 CASTEEN JOHN T III director A - A-Award Common Stock 2481 0
2017-05-18 BALILES GERALD L director A - A-Award Common Stock 2481 0
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2017-05-08 DEVITRE DINYAR S director D - S-Sale Common Stock 4285 70.7235
2017-05-05 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR Corporate Secretary D - G-Gift Common Stock 75 0
2017-04-25 Crosthwaite Kevin C Jr President & CEO, PM USA Inc. I - Common Stock 0 0
2017-04-25 Crosthwaite Kevin C Jr President & CEO, PM USA Inc. D - Common Stock 0 0
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2017-03-31 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 383 0
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2017-03-06 Johnson Craig A. Pres&CEO, Altria Grp Dist. Co. D - G-Gift Common Stock 47917 0
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2017-02-09 Keane Denise F. EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 21436 72.175
2017-02-09 Quigley Brian W. President & CEO, USSTC D - F-InKind Common Stock 3712 72.175
2017-02-09 Mancuso Salvatore SVP, Strat., Plng&Procurement D - F-InKind Common Stock 4875 72.175
2017-02-09 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR Corporate Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 1484 72.175
2017-02-09 Whitaker Charles N. SVP HR Compliance InfoSvcs&CCO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8445 72.175
2017-02-09 Willard Howard A. EVP & Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 21509 72.175
2017-02-09 Barrington Martin J. Chairman, CEO & President D - F-InKind Common Stock 68383 72.175
2017-02-09 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1354 72.175
2017-02-09 Dillard James E III SVP, Research, Dev. & RegAffrs D - F-InKind Common Stock 8446 72.175
2017-02-09 Feldman Ivan S. Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 2161 72.175
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2017-01-30 Whitaker Charles N. SVP HR Compliance InfoSvcs&CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 5924 0
2017-01-30 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR Corporate Secretary A - A-Award Common Stock 1688 0
2017-01-30 Johnson Craig A. Pres&CEO, Altria Grp Dist. Co. A - A-Award Common Stock 14767 0
2017-01-30 Keane Denise F. EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 18987 0
2017-01-30 FLEET CLIFFORD B President & CEO, PM USA A - A-Award Common Stock 10443 0
2017-01-30 Gifford William F. Jr. EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 18987 0
2017-01-30 Feldman Ivan S. Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1773 0
2017-01-30 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 2532 0
2017-01-30 Dillard James E III SVP, Research, Dev. & RegAffrs A - A-Award Common Stock 9283 0
2017-01-30 Mancuso Salvatore SVP, Strat., Plng&Procurement A - A-Award Common Stock 5485 0
2016-12-30 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 76 0
2016-12-30 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 406 0
2016-12-30 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 203 0
2016-11-22 DEVITRE DINYAR S director D - G-Gift Common Stock 15932 0
2016-10-31 Barrington Martin J. Chairman, CEO & President D - S-Sale Common Stock 15960 65.8484
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2016-09-06 Whitaker Charles N. SVP HR Compliance InfoSvcs&CCO D - G-Gift Common Stock 2500 0
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2016-09-30 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 435 0
2016-09-30 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 217 0
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2016-08-03 Dillard James E III SVP, Research, Dev. & RegAffrs D - S-Sale Common Stock 9000 66.681
2016-06-30 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 75 0
2016-06-30 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 402 0
2016-06-30 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 201 0
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2016-05-24 KIELY W LEO III director D - G-Gift Common Stock 2779 0
2016-05-20 MUNOZ GEORGE director D - S-Sale Common Stock 12571 62.85
2016-05-20 Sakkab Nabil Y director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 4000 63.2
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2016-05-19 MUNOZ GEORGE director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 0 0
2016-05-19 CASTEEN JOHN T III director A - A-Award Common Stock 2779 0
2016-05-19 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Common Stock 2779 0
2016-05-19 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 278 0
2016-05-19 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Common Stock 2779 0
2016-05-19 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 45 0
2016-05-19 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Common Stock 2779 0
2016-05-19 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 238 0
2016-05-19 Sakkab Nabil Y director A - A-Award Common Stock 2779 0
2016-05-19 KIELY W LEO III director A - A-Award Common Stock 2779 0
2016-05-19 JONES THOMAS W director A - A-Award Common Stock 2779 0
2016-05-19 DEVITRE DINYAR S director A - A-Award Common Stock 2779 0
2016-05-19 BALILES GERALD L director A - A-Award Common Stock 2779 0
2016-05-09 Quigley Brian W. President & CEO, USSTC D - S-Sale Common Stock 3000 63.6642
2016-03-31 McQUADE KATHRYN B. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 82 0
2016-03-31 KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 439 0
2016-03-31 FARRELL THOMAS F II director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 219 0
2016-02-11 Willard Howard A. EVP & Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 23422 59.74
2016-02-11 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR Corporate Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 1298 59.74
2016-02-11 Whitaker Charles N. SVP HR Compliance InfoSvcs&CCO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7863 59.74
2016-02-11 Quigley Brian W. President & CEO, USSTC D - F-InKind Common Stock 2209 59.74
2016-02-11 Mancuso Salvatore SVP, Strat., Plng&Procurement D - F-InKind Common Stock 3069 59.74
2016-02-11 Keane Denise F. EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 23328 59.74
2016-02-11 Barrington Martin J. Chairman, CEO & President D - F-InKind Common Stock 76567 59.74
2016-02-11 Johnson Craig A. Pres&CEO, Altria Grp Dist. Co. D - F-InKind Common Stock 18028 59.74
2016-02-11 Gifford William F. Jr. EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 15464 59.74
2016-02-11 FLEET CLIFFORD B President & CEO, PM USA D - F-InKind Common Stock 2990 59.74
2016-02-11 Feldman Ivan S. Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 1891 59.74
2016-02-11 Dillard James E III SVP, Research, Dev. & RegAffrs D - F-InKind Common Stock 7998 59.74
2016-02-11 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1248 59.74
2016-01-26 Willard Howard A. EVP & Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 28802 0
2016-01-26 Quigley Brian W. President & CEO, USSTC A - A-Award Common Stock 4660 0
2016-01-26 Keane Denise F. EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 28802 0
2016-01-26 Johnson Craig A. Pres&CEO, Altria Grp Dist. Co. A - A-Award Common Stock 21602 0
2016-01-26 Gifford William F. Jr. EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 28802 0
2016-01-26 Bryant Daniel J Vice President & Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 2203 0
2016-01-26 Barrington Martin J. Chairman, CEO & President A - A-Award Common Stock 110123 0
2016-01-26 Whitaker Charles N. SVP HR Compliance InfoSvcs&CCO A - A-Award Common Stock 11860 0
2016-01-26 SURGNER W HILDEBRANDT JR Corporate Secretary A - A-Award Common Stock 2542 0
2016-01-26 Mancuso Salvatore SVP, Strat., Planning & Acctg. A - A-Award Common Stock 11978 0
2016-01-26 FLEET CLIFFORD B President & CEO, PM USA A - A-Award Common Stock 11978 0
2016-01-26 Feldman Ivan S. Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 4067 0
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Transcripts
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2024 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks.
I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Savannah. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's first quarter business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com.
During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2023. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our Board. We report our financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
William Gifford:
Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We made meaningful progress in pursuit of our vision, and our highly profitable traditional tobacco businesses continued to perform well in a challenging environment. In spite of the absence of an effective regulatory environment, we saw continued early momentum from NJOY and believe our businesses are on track to deliver against full-year plans.
We also demonstrated our continued commitment to maximizing the return on our investments and delivering strong shareholder returns with the sale of a portion of our investment in ABI and the subsequent expansion of our share repurchase program in March. My remarks this morning will focus on the continued early momentum behind NJOY's commercialization, the state of the e-vapor category and enforcement progress, encouraging first quarter results from on! and our financial outlook. I'll then turn it over to Sal, who will provide further detail on our financial results and additional information on the partial sale of our ABI investment. Let's begin with our e-vapor business. After 3 full quarters of ownership, we remain excited about NJOY and its potential in the legal U.S. e-vapor market. In the first quarter, we broadened NJOY's distribution to over 80,000 stores. And we expect to expand to approximately 100,000 stores by year-end. We also continued the rollout of NJOY's first retail trade program, which we believe will help NJOY achieve optimal visibility and product fixture space at retail. Today, more than 70% of contracted stores have chosen options that secure premium positioning in the e-vapor fixture for NJOY. And we expect the majority of fixture resets to be completed in the first half of this year. To generate trial of NJOY, we expanded promotional offers at retail in the first quarter and saw promising results. NJOY's retail share of consumables grew in each of the past 6 months, and was 4.3 share points in the quarter, up 0.6 share points sequentially, and we have seen early signs of longer-term adoptions from smokers and vapors that have tried NJOY. Late last year, we tested a variety of promotional offers in a limited number of retail accounts. Diving into one retail account example, share grew by over 9 percentage points versus the pre-promotional period. In the first quarter, we reduced promotions in the account, and NJOY retained over 50% of the share gain during the trial period, settling 5 percentage points higher than the pre-promotion period. We believe these results speak to NJOY's appeal once consumers try the product. We are also inspecting a variety of other metrics to better evaluate trial and adoption of NJOY in the early stages of its expansion. One such metric that we believe is an important indicator of trial in the e-vapor category is retail share of devices, as we believe it's a measure of vapor and smoker trial and a potential leading indicator of longer-term adoption. In the first quarter, NJOY's share of devices in the multi-outlet and convenience channel was 11.5 share points, an increase of 2.4 share points sequentially and 6.4 share points since the third quarter of 2023, our first full quarter of ownership. Turning to shipments, NJOY consumables shipment volume was approximately 10.9 million units, and NJOY's device shipment volume was approximately 1 million units. While shipment volume was essentially flat sequentially, recall that 2023 fourth quarter NJOY shipment volume included building pipeline inventory at wholesale and retail to support the increased demand we anticipated in the first quarter. Moving forward, our plan aims to broaden the awareness of NJOY and grow brand affinity through NJOY's improved positioning at retail, a new equity campaign that emphasizes enjoys unique attributes and exceptional vaping experience, a new adult-only event marketing infrastructure, which NJOY expects to activate this summer; and our adult tobacco consumer database, which allows us to communicate to millions of the age-verified U.S. adult tobacco consumers through various marketing channels. We also continue to expect that NJOY will submit PMTA filings for flavored NJOY ACE products with age-gated Bluetooth technology by the end of the second quarter. NJOY's early success is encouraging in the context of broader trends in the e-vapor marketplace, where a lack of FDA-authorized products and the continued proliferation of illicit disposal products threaten the harm-reduction opportunity in the United States. As it relates to enforcement, we believe that a comprehensive approach is needed to address this issue, and we continue to actively engage with regulators, state and federal lawmakers, our trade partners and other stakeholders to build awareness and drive marketplace enforcement. There is still significant work ahead, but we saw some encouraging actions in the first quarter. In the first quarter alone, the FDA, in collaboration with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, issued over 450 e-vapor related import refusals, up from 348 during all of last year. The agency also continued to levy civil monetary penalties and send warning letters to manufacturers, retailers and wholesalers of illicit products. While these actions represent signs of progress, we believe they are wholly inadequate. Illicit markets are a threat to public health, and we believe the FDA's enforcement approach is not of the scale or scope needed to bring about fundamental change in the marketplace. As a result, we identified to the agency specific steps we believe they can take to build a more effective compliant and enforcement program to address the illicit market, including imposing direct liability on the large manufacturers, importers and distributors of illicit products, focusing on import prevention and clear enough widespread confusion in the marketplace about the FDA's enforcement priorities. Earlier this month, we sent a letter to the FDA, highlighting these recommendations and reinforcing our commitment to work collaboratively on solutions that can restore order in the e-vapor marketplace. We also continue to work with state legislatures that have passed or are considering legislation requiring manufacturers to certify that they are compliant with FDA requirements. As of April [ 19 ], 8 states have passed such legislation and 12 states are considering it. And we've seen increased legal action against entities that are enabling the illicit market. As we've previously disclosed, we initiated litigation in the United States District Court in California relating to the sale of unlawful products. Due to some procedural challenges, we voluntarily dismissed this litigation earlier this year. We subsequently filed a new lawsuit against 5 manufacturers, 4 brick-and-mortar retailers and 3 online retailers of illicit Elf Bar e-vapor products in February Federal Court in California. And earlier this month, the City of New York filed a lawsuit against 11 wholesalers for their part in the sale of illegal disposable e-vapor products. We continue to believe in the promise of a responsible e-vapor category, but a strong course correction is needed to protect the tobacco harm reduction opportunity for the millions of adult smokers in the U.S. We've learned from past experience that complex issues like this require the work of many stakeholders. And while we are starting to see some early signs of action, more impactful progress needs to be made. Let's now turn to the oral tobacco category. [ Oral ] nicotine pouches grew 13.8 share points year-over-year and now represent over 40% of the oral tobacco category. [ Oral ] nicotine pouches were the primary contributor of the estimated 9.5% increase in [ oral ] tobacco industry volume over the past 6 months. Helix grew [ on! ] reported shipment volume to approximately 33 million cans during the first quarter, an increase of 32%. on! continued its momentum at [ retail ], growing its share of the oral tobacco category by 0.7 share points to 7.1%. Helix delivered these impressive results as on! retail price increased by 26%. This spring, Helix introduced a new trade program that secures premium positioning for on! in over 80% of contracted stores, creating broader visibility of the brand. Helix is continuing its focus on strategically investing behind the brand as the category growth accelerates. Helix is also making final preparations for following its PMTA for on! PLUS, which we expect to submit in the first half of this year. Upon FDA authorization, we believe it will contribute meaningfully to Helix' growth. We continue to aggressively pursue efforts to create the conditions for tobacco harm reductions success in the U.S., to benefit tobacco consumers, society and our shareholders. I am confident in Altria's ability to lead the way in harm reduction with our exciting portfolio of smoke-free products and our talented and dedicated employees. With our smoke-free progress and the strength of our traditional tobacco businesses in mind, we reaffirm our guidance to deliver 2024, full year adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $5.05 to $5.17, representing a growth rate of 2% to 4.5% from a base of $4.95 in 2023. I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more details on the business environment and our results.
Salvatore Mancuso:
Thank, Billy. First quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share declined by 2.5%. As we previously noted, we expect that 2024 adjusted diluted EPS growth will be weighted to the second half of the year, resulting from two main factors.
The first relates to the timing of the NJOY acquisition in 2023. Since we closed this transaction on June 1 of last year, we are lapping quarters in the first half of the year that do not include the impact of amortization or investments behind the brand. The second factor is the impact of 2 additional shipping days in the smokable segment, each of which occur in the second half of the year. Turning now to our first quarter business results. The smokeable products segment delivered over $2.4 billion in adjusted operating company's income, with robust net price realization of 8.5%. And Marlboro maintained its long-standing leadership in the cigarette category. Adjusted OCI margins were 60.2% for the quarter, down slightly from a year ago. Year-over-year margin comparisons were impacted by higher per unit settlement charges and some elevated manufacturing costs. Year-over-year MSA and manufacturing cost per pack increases were higher in the first quarter than we expect for the remainder of the year. These higher costs were partially offset by lower SG&A costs in the quarter. We also expect this segment to benefit from lower SG&A costs as the year progresses. Total smokeable products segment reported and adjusted cigarette volumes declined by 10% in the first quarter. When adjusted for trade inventory movement and other factors, we estimate that industry volumes declined by 9% over the same period. We believe that industry volume trends have been negatively impacted by the proliferation of illicit disposable e-vapor products and continued pressures on tobacco consumer discretionary income. At retail, the discount segment grew 0.8 share points in the first quarter. We believe these results were driven in part by macroeconomic pressures on the adult smokers. We continue to see increased competitive activity in the discount segment, including multiple branded discount offerings priced at deep discount levels. Meanwhile, Marlboro continues to show its resilience, retaining its retail share of 42% in a challenging environment. Marlboro also grew its share of the highly profitable premium segment to 59.3%, an increase of 0.7 share points. We believe Marlboro's strong consumer loyalty and position as the aspirational brand in the category is driving its continued outperformance in the premium segment. In cigars, reported cigar shipment volume decreased by 6.1% in the first quarter. Middleton continued to contribute to smokable products segment financial results, and Black & Mild remains the leader in the highly profitable machine-made large cigar segment. Moving to the oral tobacco products segment, adjusted OCI grew 4.6% in the first quarter and adjusted OCI margins expanded by 0.2 percentage points to 69.5%. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased 3.1% as growth in on! was more than offset by lower [ MST ] volumes. When adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements, we estimate that first quarter oral tobacco products segment volumes declined by approximately 4%. Oral tobacco products segment retail share declined 7.1 percentage points as declines in our MST brands, were partially offset by the growth of on!. We remain encouraged by the performance of our oral tobacco products as on! continued to grow share, and Copenhagen remain the leading moist smokeless tobacco brand. Moving to capital allocation. In March, we sold a portion of our investment in ABI and expanded our share repurchase program to $3.4 billion. In expanding our repurchase program, we implemented a $2.4 billion accelerated share repurchase program, under which we received 46.5 million shares in March, representing 85% of the ASR Program. These repurchases are reflected in our weighted average shares outstanding for the quarter. We expect to receive shares representing the remaining 15% of the ASR Program by the end of the second quarter. After the completion of the ASR Program, we anticipate having $1 billion remaining under the currently authorized share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by year-end. Turning to ABI's financial results. We recorded $165 million of adjusted equity earnings for the quarter, down [ 8.3% ]. As a reminder, we use the equity method of accounting for our investment in ABI and report our share of ABI's results using a 1 quarter lag. Accordingly, our first quarter adjusted equity earnings represent our share of ABI's fourth quarter earnings. Following the ABI transaction, our ownership of ABI is approximately 8.1%, with a tax basis of approximately $1.2 billion. We continue to view the ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal remains to maximize long-term value of the investment for our shareholders. Turning to other capital allocation activity. We paid approximately $1.7 billion in dividends and retired $1.1 billion of notes that came due in the first quarter. And as of March 31, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.1x. With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Pamela Kaufman:
I wanted to ask about the modest of raise to your full-year guidance following the ABI share sale despite your plans to repurchase an incremental 3% of your stock. What considerations went into that? And is it a reflection of weaker-than-expected underlying performance relative to your outlook at the beginning of the year?
Salvatore Mancuso:
Thanks for the question. We were really happy to be able to revise our guidance and take up the bottom end of the guidance by a full percentage point. We took the top half -- the top end of the guidance up about 0.5 percentage point. I would read into that the confidence in our core businesses.
But also, it provides us with flexibility as we go throughout the year to manage not only our overall business, but to make investments behind our innovative tobacco products. So we feel really good about being able to provide the guidance. It reflects the accretion of the ABI transaction.
Pamela Kaufman:
Okay. And the second -- my second question is a bit more philosophical. Historically, your strategy has been to maximize operating profit by [ taking ] price in excess of cigarette volume declines. And given this is becoming increasingly difficult because of the magnitude of volume declines and the need to reinvest behind alternatives, do you think that this strategy is sustainable in the changing operating backdrop? And have you considered other approaches to maximizing profitability?
William Gifford:
Yes. We always look at our strategies, Pamela, but we feel like that is the right strategy. I would phrase it a little bit differently than you did. It's to maximize profitability over the long term while making appropriate investments in Marlboro and the growth segment.
So when you think about that, I think when you think about the pricing, and we've talked about the factors that go into pricing decisions, certainly, we've highlighted for you that our consumer is under economic strain, both from the cumulative impact of inflation as well as debt loads and high interest rates. And so we're going to continue to maximize profitability over the long term. We feel good about the price realization we had in the quarter, it was [ 8.5% ]. I think it's important to step back and think about what the consumer felt at retail. And so when you think about that, that was just shy of 6%. So there's still competition out there. But our consumer is under pressure, and we're going to make appropriate investments and be there for them. I think if you look back through history, that's proven to be a strong strategy.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
Maybe a bit of a follow-up question to Pamela. Just one thing I certainly saw in the quarter was your controllable cost in smokable per pack were up quite a bit, I think up mid-teens. So hoping you could touch on the drivers of that, and how we should think about that moving forward? And then honestly, just ultimately, your expectations for improved dollar profit growth in smokable in the back half.
I guess I'm trying to understand, can you guys hit the mid- to high end of your EPS guidance this year, if dollar profits don't recover? Again, kind of a little bit of what Pamela was asking, but just trying to understand how much flexibility you have.
Salvatore Mancuso:
Bonnie, I'm going to unpack that question a little bit. Hopefully, I touch on all aspects of it. If I don't, please follow up.
As we talked about in our opening remarks, I think first quarter, there's a couple of items that I would point out. It's really about comparisons to prior year that impact the first quarter at a higher level then we think will impact the rest of the year. A couple of adjustments, if you will, accounting adjustments as you think about. One is within the MSA cost per pack. We've seen adjustments in the past. There's a lot of variables. It's a complex calculation when you develop the accrual for MSA. And in the past, you've seen adjustments related to things like inflation. This quarter, we did make an adjustment. It was really specific to industry profits. Specifically, one of our major competitors had lower profits than anticipated. And then on the cost side, not to get too deep into the accounting, but we do account for inventory in the [ LIFO ] methodology. So when you revalue the inventory, it does impact the P&L, and it impacts the P&L in the first quarter at a higher level than it will in the remainder of the year. To your broader question, we feel very confident in our ability to continue to grow margins within the smokable products segment. And we're really happy with the performance of that segment, the performance of Marlboro, where you saw stable share performance and growth in the premium segment of the cigarette category.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. And I guess that's helpful. But I guess if I'm hearing you correctly, it's really maybe more of a timing like the one-off that you mentioned. So as we think about just honestly, the controllable cost, if those moderate, moving forward and especially in the back half, that's going to help to drive the dollar profit growth? Is that part of the confidence you have?
Salvatore Mancuso:
Yes. The year-over-year increase was higher in the first quarter. And then finally, let me also point out, the smokeable products segment did benefit from lower SG&A costs that -- and it will continue to benefit from that throughout the year. So again, we feel very good about the smokable products segment, going forward.
Bonnie Herzog:
No, that helps. And then maybe my next question or final question is on pricing. You guys have taken 2 increases so far this year, and I am talking about [ cig ] pricing. So that seems to follow your typical quarterly cadence, which sounds reasonable, given the unrelenting pressure on [ cig ] volumes, but your peers don't seem to be following in terms of frequency or strength.
And I guess I'm asking because how concerned are you about the price gaps, and how much they've widened? And I'm asking especially in light of the down-trading pressures that we're seeing, which seems to be continuing to accelerate. And as you guys called out, the continued proliferation of illicit e-cigs. How should we think about that and your ability to kind of manage these price gaps, et cetera, and down-trading?
William Gifford:
Yes, I appreciate the question, Bonnie. I'd be careful not to talk about future pricing decisions. But I think when you step back and you look at how it's performed over time, I think what you see is the benefit of the investments we made in data analytics, really from a standpoint of being able to bring revenue growth management, where we started in traditional moist smokeless tobacco and brought it over to cigarettes.
You see that Marlboro is steady overall share and growing share of premium. Yes, you see a little bit of down trading. But I think if you look back through history, you see that occur when the consumer is under economic pressure. We feel good about the tools we have within Marlboro, and I think it shows in the strength of the performance of that brand. From a standpoint of the pressures on volume, we try to provide for you the decomposition. And you see from a secular decline in price elasticity holding steady, it's really the macroeconomic and to your point, the proliferation of illicit e-vapor. And so we really need to see from an overall standpoint, a regulatory environment that is effective and is both looking at authorizing smoke-free products that the consumer is demanding and enforcement against illicit e-vapor products.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Faham Baig with UBS.
Mirza Faham Baig:
A couple of questions from me, both on the smokables division. I just want to understand if the industry volume decline remains at minus 9% for the rest of the year, whether that still allows you to hit the bottom end of your EPS outlook? In other words, you still have some room to reduce SG&A costs further and raise pricing higher?
And the second question is whether you can share your estimate of the growth of the vapor category in Q1, and what impact this might have had on cigarette volumes in Q1, please?
William Gifford:
Yes. I appreciate your question. I think from a standpoint of guidance, look, we run a range of scenarios of what could be the outcomes as we progress through the year. We reaffirmed that guidance and feel very good about the guidance that we have out in the marketplace.
I think when you think about the e-vapor, we believe that the overall e-vapor category continues to grow, with the vast majority of that coming from illicit disposable e-vapor products. While there, we started filling some of our information gaps, the nature of it being illicit as it goes around the normal distribution chain. I think the best thing I can point you to, and we included this in our quarterly metrics, you saw the growth and the consumers engaged on a 12-month moving just shy of [ 18 ] million consumers now engaged with a step-up of both those that are fully converted and those that are still using cigarettes and e-vapor. And then going to the decomposition, range estimate for the impact of e-vapor in the cigarette category is 1.5 to 2.5. And again, we're looking to fill those information gaps that the nature of it being illicit. We feel good about that range. I know it's a bit of a wide range, but as we continue to fill those information gaps and try to get a read on the illicit marketplace, we'll provide those updates as appropriate.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Matt Smith with Stifel.
Matthew Smith:
There was a reacceleration of price realization in the combustible business in the quarter with pricing per pack, up 8.5%, that's above the 5.5% in the fourth quarter. Can you talk about the factors behind the stronger price realization? And are you now lapping some stepped-up investments in the Marlboro brand in response to the pressure on the -- in response to the economic pressure on the consumer?
William Gifford:
Yes. I think from a standpoint, I would encourage you to look at price realization over the longer term. I think it's exactly what you referred to. We highlighted as we progressed through 2023, there are some investments we wanted to make, both on the menthol segment of Marlboro as well as some of the discount pressure we're seeing, in pockets.
I think it's important to remember that price gap that we show on a national basis, we're managing that price gap down at the store level. So you can go from one side of the city to the other and see different price gaps in stores. And so being able to mine that data, I think you see it with the strength of Marlboro and to your point, the strong price realization we experienced in the quarter.
Matthew Smith:
And my second question, R&D spending is shifting to the all other segments. The impact from that shift, did that seem meaningful in the first quarter, given the unique higher costs in smokeable? Can you talk about the phasing of that R&D shift through 2024? Should we think of the smokable profitability growth weighted to the second half in addition to the overall company EPS growth weighted to the second half?
Salvatore Mancuso:
Matt, we don't -- as you know, we don't guide at the segment level, but you are correct in that you are seeing a shift in R&D spending towards the innovative products, and that's part of the SG&A benefit I talked about within the smokable segment earlier with Bonnie. The smokeable segment will continue to benefit from those lower SG&A costs as the year progresses.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Two questions from me. So one is on retail pricing. I think you are saying in Q1, it is [ 347 ]. And in Q4, it was [ 377 ]. So have you stepped up promotions on on! to stem the share loss that you have seen in oral nicotine pouches?
William Gifford:
I wouldn't say stepped up for any purposes from a share standpoint. Really, what we -- you see happening, Gaurav, you see that the data that we have, I mentioned the investments in advanced analytics, being able to bring that from both moist smokeless tobacco and the smokeable segment over to the nicotine pouch segment. And so you're going to have pulse promotions through time.
The real goal there is to keep the converted consumer engaged with the brand, but still induce trial, both from competitive and those that are making different choices in the nicotine space. And so you're going to see variability on a short-term basis. But over the long term, I think it's important to step back and see the volume growth that we experienced with significant retail price year-over-year.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. And my second question is on ABI's stake. So you're highlighting that the remaining stake has a $1.2 billion tax basis. So just sort of 1 tranche, your [ JUUL ] losses expire in March 2028. So would we be fair in expecting a progressive exit from the rest of the stake over the next 4 years?
Salvatore Mancuso:
I want to make sure I'm answering your question, Gaurav, if I don't, please follow up.
You are right that we provided you with the new tax basis. And tax is just one of many variables that we consider related to the ABI investment and our capital allocation analysis. The transaction that we executed earlier this year, the shares we sold were a mix of both the restricted and unrestricted shares. And what we shared with you is that the tax liability was less than $100 million. Our expectation is that we can offset that in the future related to ABI losses -- I'm sorry, [ JUUL ] losses. The other thing I'll just remind you is that if you think about the [ JUUL ] losses, we took about half, let's call it, just over half; as ordinary losses for tax -- for cash tax purposes, but we fully reserve that on the P&L. We continue to wait to get feedback from the IRS. We hope to hear more as the year progresses.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Callum Elliott with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Callum Elliott:
Couple of slightly different questions from me. On NJOY, you called it the 60 basis points of share gain, which we can see in this candidate and sounds impressive and a nice improvement. But this kind of data do also show us that the retail sales for the brand are down double digits for the past few months.
So I guess my question is, this deterioration, is that just ongoing pressure from illicit products that's impacting the legal products in the market to cause this sort of heavy decline despite the share gain? Or is there something else going on in the category?
William Gifford:
Yes. I think what you see is exactly what you pointed out, Callum, is that the overall disposable, specifically the illicit vapes in the marketplace, continue to grow, while pod, the segment that's pod are replaceable capsules, continue to shrink in the marketplace.
Callum Elliott:
Okay. And then my second question is on oral tobacco. You touched on this a little bit earlier with, I think, Faham's question, but just building upon that. I think based on the numbers in your release, your share of total oral is now 33% and volumes declining slightly. I've got Zyn share, based on some numbers from PMI, at 28% on an apples-to-apples basis and growing 80% year-on-year. So it seems, to be clear, that you guys are on the cusp of losing your leadership position now in all tobacco as a whole.
So I guess my question is, does losing the leadership position change your mindset in how you're going to come about this category? Can you maybe be free in a sense to come at this from a slightly more challenger mindset relative to the sort of maybe slightly defensive mindset that you've necessarily had over the past several years through this pressure from Zyn?
William Gifford:
Yes. I think when you think about the overall oral tobacco category, really the strategy there is to maximize profitability while balancing investments behind Copenhagen, which is the aspiration of Brian in [ MST ] and making appropriate investments in on!.
Copenhagen continues to be the leader in the [ MST ] space, and we are pleased with the results we saw in on! in the first quarter, certainly the growth in volume, the growth in overall share of the oil tobacco space and the significant increase in retail price. And then behind that, being able to file the application with the FDA for the on! PLUS, which we feel like will perform very well in the marketplace once authorized.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
First, I wanted to ask about consumers under pressure. You said on this call that you were going to make appropriate investments and be there for them. Could you tell what do you mean by that? What kind of investments are you referring to?
William Gifford:
Yes, Jennifer, really, it's around promotions in the marketplace. When you think about the data analytics that we received, and I highlighted earlier, the price gap in a store can be different than a store across a city or town. And it's really mining that data and seeing the consumer economic pressure and being able to dial those resources appropriately for the situation that they're facing.
And so it's really about retail promotions in the marketplace that we continue to adjust through time. It allows us to be there for the consumer. Another example would be Marlboro Black, having a place for the consumer that wants to engage with Marlboro, having a place that they can continue to gauge, even when they're under academic pressure.
Jennifer Maloney:
And when you say promotional activity, would that apply to both the Marlboro brand and also some of your lower-priced brands?
William Gifford:
When you look across the portfolio, we think of the portfolio as one big RGM pool. And just like I mentioned Marlboro Black and the Marlboro family, it allows us to take a small segment of Marlboro and be there for the consumer. It gives them a place to continue to engage with the brand, but we look across the entire portfolio.
Jennifer Maloney:
Looking out at the rest of 2024, do you expect pressures on lower-income consumers to continue or to moderate?
William Gifford:
Yes. I think when you think about the consumer being at the lower end of the socioeconomic status, they've been impacted. While inflation has slowed down a bit, it's still increasing and it's the cumulative impact of that inflation on their total market purchase, as well as the increase in debt levels. And that, coupled with increased interest rates through time has impacted discretionary spend for our consumers.
Jennifer Maloney:
One more question on modern oral tobacco. So looking at the share losses in Skoal and Copenhagen and also the share performance in on!, it seems like Zyn is taking significant share from traditional oral tobacco and on! isn't catching up to Zyn. So what's your strategy for that overall oral tobacco category and then specifically for the modern oral subcategory?
William Gifford:
Yes. You may have heard me mention earlier, the overall strategy in oral tobacco is to maximize profitability over the long term while making appropriate investments in Copenhagen and the investments in the -- in our on! product in the marketplace.
I think when you think about it, it's intuitive that the moist smokeless consumer is the first to move over. They're used to putting nicotine products in their mouth. And moving from [ MST ] to nicotine pouch allows them to avoid some of the social friction, spitting things of that nature, in relation to enjoying nicotine in their product. When you think about the Zyn versus on!, we feel very good. I think you saw that -- and we highlighted in our remarks, we feel like we're going to have better positioning at retail. We feel good about the existing product, and we feel great about the pipeline to follow, which we'll be following with the FDA, PMTAs in on! PLUS as we progress through the end of this quarter.
Jennifer Maloney:
So would it be fair to say that your goal would be to capture those folks who are moving from Skoal and Copenhagen to modern oral to capture as many of those folks as possible with on! rather than losing them to Zyn?
William Gifford:
That would be correct.
Operator:
And there appears to be no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back to Mac Livingston for any closing remarks.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks for joining the call today. Hope you all have a great day. Thanks so much.
Operator:
And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect at any time.
Operator:
Good day everyone, and welcome to the Altria Group 2023 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria’s management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Jamie. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria’s CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria’s fourth quarter and full year business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2022. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment, refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Mac. Good morning. And thank you for joining us. It was a pivotal year for Altria, as we made significant progress in pursuit of our vision, by enhancing our smoke-free product portfolio, while our businesses performed well in a challenging environment. We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 2.3% and continued our long history of rewarding shareholders by delivering nearly $7.8 billion in dividends and share repurchases. Throughout 2023, we took several transformative steps that we believe position us for sustained success in the U.S. nicotine space, including completing our acquisition of NJOY and fully integrating it into our family of companies, Making exciting progress on our promising smoke-free pipeline including launching on! PLUS internationally in Sweden, one of the world's largest modern old tobacco markets. Continuing preparations to bring heated tobacco products to market. This includes heated tobacco stick products through Horizon, our joint venture with JT, and our heated tobacco capsule product SWIC and advocating for a responsible and well regulated e-vapor market including stepped up enforcement against the listed disposable products. Our vision continues to guide our actions and we believe that our growing portfolio of smoke-free products positions us well to lead in the evolving nicotine space. My remarks this morning will focus on our view of the U.S. nicotine space and our progress in each of the smoke-free categories. I'll then hand it over to Sal, who will provide an update on consumer and industry dynamics and further detail on our business and financial results. Let's begin with the operating environment. We estimate that total industry equivalized nicotine volumes increased approximately 3% for the year, and approximately 1% over the past five years on a compounded annual basis, driven by the growth of illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products. This new estimate mark stayed changed from our previously provided estimates of low-single-digit decline in total nicotine over the past several years. Our new estimate reflects a deeper ongoing analysis of the impact of a list of products on the e-vapor category. We have previously acknowledged the challenges associated with reading illicit market activity that takes place in less traditional channels. And we believe, we have deepened our understanding of market dynamics through improved data sources, information gaps still remain. As a result, we're making some informed assumptions to better reflect the dynamics at play. For example, we account for differences in liquid volume across products, device attributes and usage patterns by equivalizing e-vapor volume across different form factors. We then equivalized e-vapor volume back to cigarettes, our base unit of equivalized volume. Because of the volatility that exists in reading the illicit market, our estimates may change over time and we plan to provide you with our latest and best thinking as it evolves. Of note, our estimate focuses only on usage among age 21 plus consumers. Looking now by category, industry cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 8% last year primarily due to the historical secular rate of decline, the growth of illicit vapor products and continued macroeconomic pressures on smokers. And while we're deeply concerned about growth in illicit product use, we are encouraged that adult smokers continue to transition to smoke-free alternatives, which now represent approximately 40% of total nicotine space. E-vapor continues to be the largest smoke-free category and we have observed an increase and the number of adult vapers driven primarily by those choosing illicit products. Based on our new estimate, we see e-vapor category grew approximately 35% in 2023. We believe the category growth was largely driven by illicit flavored disposable products, which we estimate represents over 50% of the category. We estimate that pod-based products declined approximately 50%, and represent between 15% to 20% of the category. We continue to believe the e-vapor category is in the beginning of a reset and the steps that we have taken since closing the NJOY transaction will allow us to responsibly participate in the category's growth. Let's briefly recap our 2023 actions with NJOY, following the completion of our acquisition on June 1st. First, we strengthened NJOY's supply chain to enable our expansion plans. Our teams work diligently to solidify the entire supply chain from sourcing direct materials through shipment to retail. We now expect to have capacity to support our expansion plans for NJOY moving forward. Next, we prioritize closing inventory gaps at retail and expanding distribution of ACE. For example, prior to closing, a number of stores had ACE pods in distributions, but no devices. While other stores were missing various pod varieties. Our teams have closed inventory gaps in stores that already had distribution, which has significantly improved in stock conditions at retail. During the fourth quarter, we expanded distribution of ACE to over 75,000 stores, surpassing our previously announced goal of 70,000 stores. These stores represent approximately 75% of e-vapor for volume, and 55% of cigarette volume sold in the U.S. multi-outlet and convenience channel. We also introduced NJOY's first retail trade program, which we will -- we believe will help NJOY achieve optimal visibility and product fixture space at retail. Retailers can sign up for the program at various levels with merchandising options designed to position, NJOY's strategically and responsibly to tobacco consumers while creating further awareness of the brand. We're encouraged by our trade partners response to the program with approximately 70% of stores having chosen options that secure premium positioning and the e-vapor fixture for NJOY. Fixture resets are well underway and we expect the majority will be completed in the first half of this year. We believe that achieving manufacturing capacity, supply chain security, and optimal product distribution and placement at retail were necessary precursors to engaging consumers with impactful marketing and promotional offers. Turning to NJOY's business results, NJOY consumer -- consumables shipment volume was approximately 11 million units for the quarter, and 23 million units since closing. NJOY's retail share and the multi-outlet and convenience channel was 3.7% in the fourth quarter. In November, we began testing trial generating bundle offers in a limited number of retail accounts, and the results were very encouraging. Despite the limited reach of these offers, NJOY retail share increased 0.3 of a percentage point nationally in November and another 0.3 in December. While still early, we are excited by NJOY's momentum and remain optimistic about its potential in the U.S. market. We expect to further expand, NJOY promotions and marketing activations in the first quarter, and we anticipate submitting a PMTA for NJOY's age restricted Bluetooth device with non-tobacco flavors in the first half of this year. We look forward to sharing more detail about our plans for the year at CAGNY. Looking more broadly at the e-vapor category, we continue to believe that the current state of the market is intolerable for both legitimate manufacturers and consumers. As I previously stated, the total nicotine space grew in 2023, largely because of illegal flavored disposable e-vapor products. These products are being distributed by companies violating virtually every rule and guidance the FDA has issued since 2016. We are actively engaging with regulators, state and federal lawmakers, air trade partners, and other stakeholders to build awareness of this serious issue and drive marketplace enforcement. While we believe there is still significant work ahead to eliminate these illicit products from the market, we have seen some encouraging actions. In December, the FDA in collaboration with U.S. Customs and Border Production announced the seizure of approximately 1.4 million unauthorized e-vapor products, including Elf Bar and other brands that are popular with underage users. We believe that adopting comprehensive border protection programs is an important step towards clearing the market of illicit products. Additionally, we have worked with legislatures in a number of states that have passed or are considering legislation requiring manufacturers to certify that they have either submitted a PMTA, which is pending or received a marketing order in compliance with FDA regulations. We also initiated litigation in the United States District Court in California relating to the sale of unlawful products. And although this litigation is facing some initial procedural challenges, we remain committed to explore and pursue all litigation opportunities against manufacturers, distributors and online retailers related to sale of unlawful products. A strong course correction is needed to protect the tobacco harm reduction for the millions of adult smokers in the U.S. We've learned from past experiences that complex issues like this require the work of many stakeholders. For our part, we're working with regulators, legislatures, law enforcement and others to address the illicit market. And while the FDA and other authorities are stepping up enforcement, more action is needed. Turning to oral tobacco, the nicotine pouch category experienced sizable growth once again resulting in an estimated 7.5% increased in total U.S. oral tobacco volumes over the past six months. In the fourth quarter, oral nicotine pouches grew 11.8 share points year-over-year and now represent more than 35% of the total U.S. oral tobacco category. On! continued to participate in the category growth as reported shipment volumes increased nearly 33% in the fourth quarter and 39% for the full year. In the fourth quarter, Helix continued its focus on volume growth while improving profitability. Helix applied its analytics and revenue growth management capabilities to be more flexible and efficient with its promotional investments in the marketplace. As a result, orange retail price increased over 47% versus the year ago period, while growing its retail share by 1.1 percentage points. Encouragingly, we continue to see increasing levels of both trial and adoption of the brand with repeat purchases up more than 30% year-over-year, despite the substantial increase in retail price. We remain excited about on! PLUS and its potential in the U.S. market. We believe its long lasting flavor system and proprietary softened material are differentiators in the category. We continue to see encouraging results from the on! PLUS test launch in Sweden. Consumer research from the fourth quarter indicates that on! PLUS is competitive with the market leading old nicotine pouch products in Sweden, and is seen as a unique offering with a strong repeat purchase rate of over 30% in the e-commerce channel. Given the success of on! PLUS net and smooth net in December, we introduced on! PLUS berry and citrus and 6 and 9 milligram strength variants in the e-commerce channel. We also plan to expand on! PLUS to additional retail accounts and suite. Our teams are on-track to submit the PMTA for on! PLUS in the first half of this year and upon FDA authorization, we expect it will contribute meaningfully to Helix's growth. In heated tobacco, we believe our compelling portfolio of products will appeal to the millions of adult smokers seeking innovative and scalable alternatives to e-vapor products. We are continuing regulatory preparations to bring heated tobacco stick products to the U.S. market through Horizon, our joint venture with JT. We remain on-track to follow-up PMTA for Ploom in the first half of 2025. And we are making continued progress on our heated tobacco capsule product SWIC. While we believe heated tobacco products can play an important role in achieving harm reduction, the category remains nonexistent in the United States. We're encouraged by the progress we made in 2023 and we are committed to achieving long-term leadership in each of the smoke-free categories while delivering strong shareholder returns. Last March, we introduced our 2028 enterprise goals. We provided updates on our progress in this morning's press release and we expect to provide progress updates annually moving forward. We look forward to discussing our exploration of non-nicotine and international mid-teen markets at CAGNY later this month. Turning to our 2024 financial outlook. Our plans include a continuation of our strategy to balance earnings growth and shareholder returns with strategic investments toward our vision. For 2024, our planned investment areas include marketplace activities in support of our smoke-free products and continued smoke-free product research, development and regulatory preparations. We believe the external environment will remain dynamic in 2024, and we will continue to monitor the economy, including the cumulative impact of inflation, tobacco consumer dynamics including purchasing patterns and adoption of smoke-free products, solicity vapor enforcement and regulatory litigation and legislative developments. Considering these factors, we expect to deliver 2024 full year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $5 to $5.15. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 1% to 4% from a $4.95 base in 2023. We expect 2024 adjusted diluted EPS growth to be weighted to the second half of the year. Our guidance includes the impact of two additional shipping days in 2024 and assumes limited impact from illicit e-vapor enforcement on combustible and e-vapor volumes. Before I turn it over to Sal, I'd like to take a moment to recognize Murray Garnick, who recently announced his decision to retire from Altria. During his remarkable career, Murray represented Altria and its subsidiaries for nearly 40 years, both as outside and in-house counsel including his last seven as General Counsel, leading the law and regulatory affairs departments. Under his guidance, we have successfully managed significant litigation challenges and established Altria as a leading advocate for tobacco harm-reduction policies in the U.S. We will continue to benefit from Murray's guidance through the first quarter. At which time, Bob McCarter will assume the role of General Counsel. Bob currently leads the management of tobacco health and other litigation. Bob has been with Altria since 2015, and spent 18 years before that representing the company as outside catching. Please join me in thanking, and congratulating Murray on an incredible career. And we look forward to introducing Bob to many of you at CAGNY, and in years to come. And I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our results.
Sal Mancuso :
Thanks, Billy. Let's begin with a review of the macroeconomic backdrop and its impact on U.S. tobacco consumers. We believe that discretionary income levels remained under pressure through the fourth quarter. While slightly lower gas prices in the fourth quarter were a modest tailwind, we believe the cumulative effects of inflation and higher consumer debt levels led to lower discretionary income for tobacco consumers. Late last year, we conducted research to understand how tobacco consumers we're adjusting their purchasing behaviors to the current macroeconomic environment. Our research indicates smokers continue to feel economic pressure throughout 2023, and we're more likely to search for deals when purchasing tobacco products in the fourth quarter. We will continue to monitor tobacco consumer behaviors and changes in marketplace conditions in 2024. Moving to our results. Our tobacco businesses generated solid financial performance again this year and a challenging external environment. In the smokeable products segment, adjusted operating companies income declined by 1.3% in the fourth quarter and was essentially flat for the full year. Adjusted OCI results in the fourth quarter and full year were primarily driven by elevated industry volume declines and higher promotional investments. Adjusted OCI margins expanded by 0.6 and 0.9 in the fourth quarter and full year, respectively. Net pricing remained robust and net price realization for the segment was 5.5% for the fourth quarter and 8.8% for the full year. Marlboro displayed resiliency during a period of continued uncertainty for consumers. In the fourth quarter, Marlboro's retail share was 42.2%, unchanged versus the year ago period and down just 0.1 sequentially. Marlboro also grew its share within the highly profitable premium segment to 59.2%, an increase of 0.8 versus a year ago, and 0.3 sequentially. In 2023, PM USA uses a sophisticated suite of RGM tools, to make investments in Marlboro Black to support its share performance. The investments in Marlboro Black gave consumers under economic strain, a place to stay within the Marlboro portfolio while positioning PM USA to maximize profitability over the long-term. Historically, we have seen similar investments improve brand loyalty during times of economic uncertainty, which has contributed to Marlboro's long-standing leadership in the category. We continue to believe that Marlboro remains the aspirational brand in the cigarette category, and we are encouraged by its performance in 2023. Total discount segment share was 28.6% in the fourth quarter, up 0.4 sequentially and 0.9 versus a year ago. We believe that results were driven in part by seasonal trends in the discount segment and the macroeconomic factors that I just discussed. Turning to volumes. Smokeable products segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 7.6% in the fourth quarter and 9.9% for the full year. When adjusted for trade inventory movements, domestic cigarette volumes for the fourth quarter and full year declined by an estimated 9% and 10%, respectively. At the industry level, when adjusted for trade inventory movements and other factors, we estimate that domestic cigarette volumes declined by 8% in the fourth quarter and for the full year. In cigars, reported shipment volume decreased 1.4% for the fourth quarter and increased 2.8% for the full year while Black & Mild continued to maintain its leadership in the profitable machine-made to cigar segment. The oral tobacco products segment reported strong fourth quarter results. Adjusted OCI and OCI margins increased and on! continued to grow its retail share of the oral tobacco category year-over-year. For the fourth quarter, adjusted OCI grew 10.3% and the segment expanded adjusted OCI margins to 63.1%, an increase of nearly 2 percentage points versus the prior year. This performance was supported by robust net price realization due in part to lower promotional investment behind on. For the full year, the segment grew adjusted OCI by 5.5% with adjusted OCI margins of 67.4%, up more than 1 percentage point. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased by 2% and 2.2% for the fourth quarter and full year, respectively. The segment's volume decline was primarily driven by declines in MST volume, partially offset by the growth of on!. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences, segment volumes declined by an estimated 2.5% for the fourth quarter and full year. Oral tobacco products segment retail share declined by 5.8 percentage points in the fourth quarter as declines in our MST brands were partially offset by the year-over-year growth of on!. Turning to our investment in ABI. We recorded $628 million of adjusted equity earnings for the full year, up 10% versus 2022. We continue to view our stake in ABI as a financial investment, and our goal remains to maximize the long-term value of the investment for our shareholders. In our all other operating category, we recorded $74 million in adjusted losses for the year, and we continue to return significant cash to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Last year, we paid approximately $6.8 billion in dividends and raised our dividend by 4.3% in August in line with our new progressive dividend growth goal. This marked our 58th increase in the last 54 years and repurchased 22.7 million shares, which completed our previously authorized $1 billion program. Our balance sheet remains strong. As of the end of the fourth quarter, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.2x in line with our new capital structure goal of approximately 2x. In the fourth quarter, we issued $1 billion in debt that we plan to use to retire approximately $1.1 billion in maturing debt in the first quarter. Earlier this week, our Board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of 2024. With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Matt Smith with Stifel.
Matt Smith:
Wanted to ask a question if we could start with the EPS guidance for the year. When we consider the 1% to 4% growth, you note that it will be weighted towards the second half. Can you talk about the factors supporting that higher growth in the second half? How much of that is the difference between incrementally higher investment in the first half before you anniversary some higher investment levels in 2023 versus your outlook for the cigarette volumes, including the additional shipping days in the second half?
Billy Gifford:
I think when you think about it being weighted to the second half of the year, I think there's two major components you should think. I'm the biggest being NJOY. You remember, we closed that on June 1. So we had amortization of that acquisition. And so you'll have the investments that we highlighted in our remarks of course, in the first half of the year where you didn't have that in the first half of last year. I think the other thing to note is, remember, the two extra shipping days, one of those will occur in the third quarter and one in the fourth quarter. So they're both back half of the year weighted. I think those are the two major things. And of course, there are always puts and takes, but those are the two major things I would highlight.
Matt Smith:
If I could ask a second question here. When we look at the price realization on a per pack basis in the smokeable business, that year-over-year contribution decelerated through 2023, especially in the second half with realized pricing well below the rate of list price increases. Can you talk about the offsets to the price announcements that you have made, how much of that difference is between list and realized prices is due to trade down mix within Marlboro, with Marlboro Black Gold and other extensions versus increased promotional spending.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it's a little bit of both. I think when you think about it, Matt, we tried to highlight that our consumer is under pressure. And we felt like we could use the normal Black franchise as well as rounding out that portfolio for -- with the normal gold pack. I think if you look back in history, you see we use these tools. It allows us to take a small segment of Marlboro and provide a place for consumers under pressure because Marlboro still the aspirational brand in the marketplace. Those that are facing economic pressures have a place to continue to interact with Marlboro and purchase Marlboro. You'll see historically, when economic pressures ease a bit for our consumers, we're able to lessen those promotional. But in essence, we kept them in the mobile franchise, the brand itself. And it's much more effective and efficient to do it that way, then try to win them back if they trade it down. I would encourage you to think about price realization over the long-term. When you look at it on a quarter basis, you have timing of pricing things of that nature. But even if I can encourage you to look at it over the long-term, at least look at it and look at costs year-over-year. And I think if you look last year, you'll see the fourth quarter was a high mark compared to the other quarters from a price realization. So comps will affect it to a certain degree as well.
Operator:
We'll turn now to Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
Congrats to Murray, and thanks to him for all of the help over the years.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks for that, Pamela.
Pamela Kaufman:
So question on the guidance for low-single-digit earnings growth in 2024. This follows a year of low-single-digit growth in '23, but your growth algorithm calls for mid-single-digit earnings growth. So do you think that your longer-term targets are still achievable? And what do you anticipate changing over the next few years that can put you on that path?
Billy Gifford:
Thanks for your question, Pamela. I think there are a number of factors you should think about. When we put that enterprise goal out there, we talked about it on a compounded annual basis. And we highlighted for you that there would be variability throughout that process because there are going to be years where you have investment and you heard the answer to the previous question, we closed NJOY in the second half of the year. And so now you have a full year of investment. On the other hand, you have puts and takes across it because you saw the increase in profitability with on!. So as you're investing, the various categories is going to be at different levels of investment and as we're able to ease those investments that's what we anticipate through time. You know the aspiration is to be the leader -- a leader in each of the categories, and you know that we are pretty successful in increasing margins through time.
Pamela Kaufman:
And then in the smokeable segment, this was the second consecutive quarter of negative sales and OCI growth. Given several years of elevated cigarette volume declines and a heightened competitive backdrop, how do you get comfort that your financial model is sustainable and more near term, do you anticipate that smokeable segment operating profit can grow in 2024? .
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I would point you back to the decomposition of overall industry volume and the factors affecting it. The ones I would highlight is really the macroeconomic and other. And there remember, there are two components there. One, we've been highlighting for you that the consumer is under economic pressure. And when they're under economic pressure they make different decisions in the moment. The other is the explosion of illicit base. It's having an impact both in the combustible segment as well as the e-vapor segment, the legitimate e-vapor segment, if you will, and so it's having an impact on both. So I think as you think about the economy through time as well as what is necessary, which is significant more enforcement of illegitimate and illegal product in the marketplace those consumers will be at play. We want to keep them in the e-vapor market, and that's why you see the distribution and the movements we've made with NJOY, but keeping them in the e-vapor market responsibly. And so that's the way we think about it through time.
Pamela Kaufman:
And just one last one. Can you talk about the current competitive backdrop and what you're observing from the premium and deep discount cigarette segments as well as from e-vapor and your strategy to compete against each of these segments?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think when you think about the combustible segment, it has always been a competitive marketplace. So I think we're seeing these other bigger challenges with the consumer being under pressure and the illicit base. From an illicit base standpoint, the consumers are moving. What's encouraging is it's a proof of harm-reduction. If we had harm-reduced products in the marketplace, consumers removed. But they have to be reviewed and authorized by the FDA for the consumer to be able to count on that. So I think when you think about through time, the competitive, I would point to Marlboro continues to grow its share in the premium segment. And its overall share has been really steady if you go pre-pandemic to post-pandemic, but it continues to be a competitive marketplace. I think when you think about e-vapor, we've certainly seen competitors step up their promotional spend as we have expanded distribution of NJOY. We've shared with you, if you will, the consumer research that we did prior to the acquisition. We feel good about the proposition we have with NJOY and the early consumer feedback we have on the product in the marketplace. So we look forward to being able to continue to engage with the consumer as we move through 2024.
Operator:
We'll hear next from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
Murray definitely all the best to your retirement.
Billy Gifford:
I'm sure he will appreciate that, Bonnie. Thanks.
Bonnie Herzog:
Yes. I just -- I had a quick follow-up question on your smokeable segment. I guess, Billy and so, I mean, could you guys give us a sense of what's factored into your EPS growth guidance this year? I guess I'm thinking about it on the low end of your guidance range. Just does the low end assume essentially no dollar profit growth for smokeable, just trying to understand maybe how much flexibility you have to kind of hit some of these ranges?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I appreciate your question, Bonnie. You'll recall we don't really offer guidance down to the level because we're balancing that. That's why we put forward the enterprise goals. Remember, one is the overall margin for the portfolio of products because, as I mentioned earlier, each of those categories have been being different points of investment. What we strive for in the combustible segment is to maximize profitability in the long-term and we're going to make appropriate investments in Marlboro and investments in the growth categories. And so we try to lay for you, if you will, the groundwork of how we're going to manage the business through time.
Bonnie Herzog:
And then I did want to ask about your smoke-free vision. Just hoping for maybe a little more details on the vision and where you expect by the end of the year in terms of progress. You touched on NJOY and the Navy. A little bit more color and update on your JV with JTI et cetera. And then I'm also trying to understand how to think about required investments this year versus last year. Can you give us a sense if spending behind your vision will accelerate in '24? And if so, are your core smokeable and I guess, all tobacco business is strong enough to support this stepped up spending and your ability ultimately to generate EPS growth. I think that's one of the key questions here.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, there was a lot in that question, Bonnie, so I'll try to unpack it, but follow-up if I missed the piece. So I'll start in the reverse order. Yes, we do more like our core businesses are very strong when you look at the strength of Marlboro in the marketplace, you look at the aspiration of Copenhagen and MST and you look at the performance of those businesses through time, you see that they're very strong and continue to be strong. As far as investments, I'll speak -- you ask about Ploom. We shared in our remarks, we're continuing to work on the application there. We expect to file that in the first half of 2025. It's just the application process and compiling it and the studies that are involved with that. But we feel good about what we've seen with interactions with the consumer to this point. As far as the NJOY, certainly, you can expect more investment in 2024 than you did in 2023. Some of that's just the nature of we didn't close it until June 1, but now we're in 75,000 stores. And so we're really looking forward to having that in the stores where consumers are shopping, having it displayed much more prominently than it ever has been we secured, as I mentioned, the great spot on the fixture. But having that in the consideration set, we feel like once we get that in consumers' hands, consumer research would tell us that they will convert through time for the product because they enjoy it.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] we'll go now to Callum Elliott with Bernstein.
Callum Elliott:
Another one on price mix, but maybe from a slightly longer-term perspective. We've obviously seen a divergence. I think I would describe it this year between your pricing strategy and some of your big peers. And it seems like the peers are signaling that they're set to continue on their path. So I guess this is for Billy. My question is do you see a strategic imperative to react to some of that more competitive pricing? And maybe is that what we're seeing in the big step down in sequential price mix this quarter? Or are you content over the longer term to continue this divergence?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I appreciate your question. I think if you recall, as we progressed through 2023, we highlighted for you pockets of the U.S. where we felt like we needed to make some investments. Some in the menthol segment, we saw some competitors getting a bit aggressive in the menthol space, and we made those investments. And some was related directly to the discount category and some of the aggressiveness there. I think overall, when you look at Marlboro and its steadiness and share and its growth in the premium segment, you can see with the RGM capabilities and the data analytics that we have, we're able to be very efficient and effective with spending in the marketplace. Trying to get, if you will, to the individual consumer so that we can deal with the individual consumer that is facing those either competitive decisions with the aggressiveness that they take or with just their economic situation. And I think you see that we've actually been able to implement that very well, again, with the steadiness of Marlboro and the investments that we've made.
Sal Mancuso:
I touched on this in our opening remarks that the utilization of the breadth of Marlboro's brand family and utilizing SKUs to interact with consumers who are under economic pressure has occurred in the past. It's happened with special blend as an example, during difficult economic times. So you mentioned -- you called it a divergence, but I would say this is something that we've done in the past, and we've been able, as the economy improves to margin up those SKUs, but also see consumers return to mainline Marlboro.
Callum Elliott:
I guess I'm just slightly surprised because I think your table in the quarterly metrics disclosures suggest that the macroeconomic pressure has actually lessened this quarter, whereas obviously, the price mix suggests that that trade down has accelerated in a very meaningful way.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think you have to think about it as headwinds tailwinds. Certainly, gas prices have declined, so you can take the gas prices being a bit of a tailwind. You also have to think about the debt load and the cumulative impact of inflation on the total basket that our consumer purchases. It's that cumulative impact that's affected the discretionary income. And then I mentioned that load, just because from a debt load standpoint, the increase in interest rate also affects the discretionary income. So I think overall, if you think about the discretionary income, its down.
Callum Elliott:
And I have just sort of very, very different follow-up. The question is, can you talk about some of the recent regulatory changes in Louisiana, where I think they've been taking it upon themselves to clamp down on the illegal sales that you spoke about the disposable vaping products given the action that we've seen from the FDA? I think some of those changes took place in November. So should have a couple of months' worth of data now. What impact have you seen in Louisiana? And do you expect that other states might follow that path that Louisiana have taken?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, that is a lot based on efforts by ourselves and working with the legislatures in the state. And what you're referring to is Louisiana requires manufacturers to certify the individuals within the company to certify that they either have followed FDA guidance and they have a legitimate application on file and it's pending or that they have actually received authorization. It is early right now, Callum, in Louisiana, I would say the early signs are encouraging that we are seeing illicit base being removed from the marketplace. Hope that trend continues. And we are -- there have been a number of states that have passed similar legislation as well as a number of states that are considering it. But it's a bit early, but yes, the early signs are encouraging.
Operator:
We'll go next to Pallav Mittal with Barclays.
Pallav Mittal:
Can you please comment on the sell-through trends for NJOY? Or is the $11 million number the shipment similar to retail trends as well?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. What we tried to share with you is that was the shipment volume. We tried to share with you also the share, and if you will, that's an estimate of consumer take. So it was 3.7% for the period that we owned them and then we try to highlight for you that we have put in place testing some bundle offers, where we could test trial promotions so that we're prepared for the full distribution and be able to bring that across the U.S. this year. We did it on a small scale, but just that small-scale impacted national share, an additional incremental 0.3 in November and another incremental 0.3 in December. So it's early. We'll be bringing that marketing activation and promotional to the nation this year. But certainly, the early results are very encouraging.
Pallav Mittal:
And one more. So the minus 8% decline in industry volumes, how much do you think is the cannibalization from e-cigarettes? And how much is the impact from the growth in modern oral?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I would say from modern oral, there is minimal impact. You'll recall that in secular decline, we represent historically about 1% across category movement. Then we try to call out any additional or special items. And what we call out, and you'll see that in our quarterly metrics that about 1.5% to 2.5% is related to the illicit e-vapor category. And so if you think about historically 1% being up in secular decline, this 1.5% to 2.5% being related to illicit base. But yes, we are encouraged that we're seeing some interaction with going with adult smokers. But at this point, from an impact to the overall industry, it is minimal. It is really illicit base that is driving the majority of that.
Operator:
We'll go now to Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
I have a question about the California market dynamic data that you shared this morning. It looks like overall cigarette industry sales fell in California more steeply than the country overall in 2023. But it also looks like Marlboro, I thought Morris USA retail share increased in California more than elsewhere. So is it fair to say that as a result of the menthol ban, some consumers moved away from cigarettes, either stop smoking or move to other products, but also there was a dynamic here where people who might have smoked menthol cigarettes switch to Marlboro cigarettes.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. It's a complex issue. So let me try to unpack it for you. When you look at that 15%, we would consider that legitimate shipments that went to California. What you're seeing is a lot of black market activity that takes place in California. So you see gray market consumers going across the border, and we've seen that, whether it be Nevada or other bordering states, some consumers go across to get them menthol cigarettes. We're seeing a lot of black market enter up from Mexico into the state of California. That would not be included in the 15%. So that is black market or a legal product that has made its way into California for the consumer to buy. Again, that wouldn't be in the 15%. We do believe some consumers have moved. Certainly, there's a huge market of a listed vape in California. That continues even though the flavor ban is in place. To answer your question on the adult cigarette consumer. What you see with the benefit of Marlboro is I think if you look at various studies, when there's a menthol ban, the consumer really doesn't leave the nicotine space and a lot of them don't even leave cigarettes. They look to non-menthol cigarettes as an alternative. And with our over-indexing and non-menthol, it makes sense that they would move to Marlboro. One of the other things I would highlight in moving to non-menthol, we've seen an influx of what we call menthol cards into the state of California. So again, they're illegal, but it allows the consumer to buy a non-menthol pack of cigarettes, insert the card and then if you will self-ventilate their cigarettes. So there, I think it points again to when you pass the law without an eye towards how you're going to enforce the law, you see a significant amount of illicit activity that takes place related to that.
Jennifer Maloney:
What I don't see here is PM USA total shipments in California, I see that there's a retail share increase, but did your sales in California decrease in 2023 more than the national average?
Billy Gifford:
They did. They are commensurate with overall industry.
Jennifer Maloney:
So based on your observations of the market dynamics in California, what would you expect to see this a national ban menthol cigarette ban were implemented in terms of market dynamics and the impact on your sales?
Billy Gifford:
It's hard to answer on the hypothetical Jennifer, and I apologize for without [indiscernible] the actual proposed rule and what's going to take place. It's tough to say what their enforcement activities will be. I think if you look at our comments related to the menthol ban, you'll see that we felt like the FDA needed to take into consideration all of the unintended consequences and that you're seeing them take place in California. Black market activity, illicit product getting into the marketplace, methylated cards. So there are a lot of unintended consequences. So it'd be tough to tell, if you will, what the overall how the consumer will be at play in that depending on what's available to them.
Jennifer Maloney:
But in California, your sales went down, although you did see some share gain as menthol smokers switched over to Marlboro.
Billy Gifford:
That is correct.
Jennifer Maloney:
And if the draft rule were adopted as a final rule, would you -- do you intend to by a legal challenge, if that is -- if that final rule is published?
Billy Gifford:
I think it's too early to tell. We certainly anticipate that there would be legal challenges, but it's too early to tell whether we would be involved. We would like to be able to understand the rule as it's published finally and then make that decision, and we'll share it with you when we have anything to share.
Jennifer Maloney:
One last question on modern oral nicotine products. Are they a risk to young people? And do you -- and what flavors and marketing approaches do you think are appropriate for that category?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think there could be a risk for underage if not marketed and sold responsibly. So we actually sent a letter to the FDA many months ago, that they should encourage them to issue marketing guidelines for the category. So that regardless of authorizations or not, be able to have marketing guidelines for that category so that all industry members could follow so that we can protect the harm reduction for adults without exposing underage users to the category. We haven't seen any action by the FDA. But certainly, we, as our approach to the marketplace has very minimal under interaction with our brand.
Jennifer Maloney:
So what would those marketing guidelines look like ideally, in your view, would it entail labor restrictions? Would it entail restrictions on social media, marketing and influencers?
Billy Gifford:
Well, I won't get into the details because we shared that with the FDA, and we haven't seen any action at this point. But certainly, what would be considered a responsible approach to the marketplace.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll go next to [indiscernible] with Thomson Reuters.
Unidentified Analyst:
My first one is around the successful challenges to the FDA's marketing denial orders for some vapes, which have started to put some pressure on the agency and also increased the likelihood of a case going to the Supreme Court. I wondered whether Altria would want to participate in any Supreme Court case. And if so, how it's preparing for that possibility?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think you certainly highlight that the circuit courts have taken different positions on the approach by the FDA in the e-vapor market when we certainly are closely monitoring these cases. But I think when you step back from it, we're in a unique position. We're the only cloud-based product that has received authorization from the FDA. So if you think about other major competitors in the cloud segment, they have not received authorization. Our authorization was in the tobacco flavored pods and our application from the menthol version of the same product is pending with the FDA. And we really feel like looking at those court cases in both instances where the courts have taken different positions. We believe that we should get a marketing order for this menthol product, whether you look at the holdings on either of those instances of the second quarter. So we'll monitor those, but we're in a unique position.
Unidentified Analyst:
Just a follow-up to an earlier question around the sustainability of the financial model for the smokeable segment in particular. Obviously, the industry has for some time now effectively used pricing increases to offset volume declines. The last couple of quarters, it seems that that's been a bit more difficult, given the down trading and the promotional environment that you flagged. So I'm wondering whether the ability to offset declines with pricing in the smokeable segment is kind of disappearing or you feel that, that will return when the economic environment improves and promotions sort of fees a little bit.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I'll be careful not to talk about future pricing, but I'll describe how we think about pricing. It's certainly an important part of the algorithm. I think you've seen us take pricing. I know people are focused on fourth quarter price realization. I tried to express that if you're going to look at it on a short-term basis, at least look at comps versus prior year, we look at price realization over the long-term. And when we think about the strategy in combustibles, it really is to maximize profitability over the long-term while balancing appropriate investments in Marlboro with the areas that are growing. And when you look at that and look through history and see the price realization, you see the data analytics and the revenue growth management capabilities kicking in. Marlboro has been steady, is growing its share of premium, and we continue to compete what we feel like very effectively and efficiently fulfilling what our strategy is for the category through time.
Unidentified Analyst:
So you're kind of confident that the smokeable segment can return to revenue growth in the future?
Billy Gifford:
I think when you look at it, we'll continue to execute against our strategy, which is to maximize profitability over the long-term.
Operator:
There appears to be no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mac Livingston, for any closing remarks.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Please feel free to contact the Investor Relations team if you have any further questions. Have a great day. Thanks.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
Operator:
Good day everyone, and welcome to the Altria Group 2023 Third Quarter and Nine Months Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria’s management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks Ashley. Good morning and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria’s CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria’s third quarter and first nine months business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2022. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our Board. We report our financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both, a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and the reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today’s remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks Mac. Good morning and thank you for joining us. Our highly profitable produced traditional tobacco businesses were resilient in a dynamic operating environment during the third quarter and first nine months, providing fuel for our business transformation and significant cash returns to our shareholders. We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 3.3% for the first nine months and returned more than $5.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We continue to balance maximizing profitability from our smokeable and moist smokeless tobacco businesses with investments to realize their vision of responsibly leading the transition of adult smokers to a smoke-free future. This morning I will focus on our progress with NJOY, the state of the e-vapor category, and the encouraging third quarter results from on. I'll then turn it over to Sal, who will providing update on consumer and industry dynamics, further detail on our financial results and outlook for the remainder of the year. Let's begin in the e-vapor category. In our first full quarter of ownership, our teams executed NJOY's business plans with speed and focus to lay the foundation for NJOY’s long-term success. Today, NJOY ACE remains the only pod based e-vapor product with a marketing authorization from the FDA. We're actively working to bring this compelling smoke-free alternative for more smokers in vapors across the United States. We believe that the long-term success in e-vapor will be influenced by our actions in the near term, and we're executing in the marketplace to grow the business responsibly and sustainably. First, while already strong strengthening NJOY supply chain was a necessary step to begin the initial phase of our expansion with ACE. Our teams work diligently to solidify the entire supply chain from sourcing direct materials through the shipment to retail. As a result, we do not anticipate capacity constraints as we execute our initial expansion plan. Next, during the third quarter, our teams prioritize closing inventory gaps at retail and expanding distribution of ACE. Prior to the acquisition, NJOY had a small scale salesforce, which resulted in inventory volatility and significant distribution gaps at retail. Upon completion of the NJOY transaction, we immediately unleashed our salesforce to focus on closing the inventory gaps in stores that already had distribution. We improved inventory conditions in stores and are actively working to close remaining gaps at retail. For expansion based distribution grew to approximately 42,000 stores during the third quarter and is now distributed in all of the top 25 convenience store chains by e-vapor volume. In addition, we began to amplify visibility with new point of sale and fixture signage at retail. During the fourth quarter, we continue to expect ACE expansion to reach a total of 70,000 stores by year-end, representing approximately 70% of e-vapor volume and 55% of cigarette volume sold in the US multi outlet and convenience channel. As we continue to expand distribution and close inventory gaps, we expect to further enhance visibility and product fixture space at retail. Last month, NJOY unveil its first retail trade program. Retail partners can sign up for the program at various levels with merchandising options designed to position NJOY strategically and responsibly to tobacco consumers, while creating further awareness of the brand. And as we move to our next phase of e-vapor consumer engagement, we're beginning to test a variety of promotional plans and anticipate more disruptive execution at retail in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2024. We will continue to refine our promotional plans, implement, NJOY's retail trade program, further expand distribution and evolve our consumer engagement strategy. Our strategies will focus on informing adult vapors and smokers of the attributes of ACE, such as battery capacity and pods size relative to other leading brands, generating trial and growing brand loyalty. In addition, plans for a new brand equity campaign are well underway. We expect to equity campaign to further amplify the brand's presence at retail and drive consumer engagement with the brand. We're excited to share more on this campaign and the next phases of our growth plans in the near future. Looking more broadly at the e-vapor category, the current state of the market is intolerable for both legitimate manufacturers and consumers. As we have noted repeatedly four months, the regulated market is being overrun by illegal flavored disposable e-vapor products made and distributed by companies violating virtually every rule and guidance FDA has issued since 2016. Regulation not enforced is indistinguishable from no regulation at all. Illegal e-vapor products circumvent the actions of regulators, responsible manufacturers and retailers by evading scientific review, quality of manufacturing controls, marketing oversight, and legal aids or purchase restrictions. Despite recent actions by the FDA, enforcement has been inadequate and ineffective. We believe the FDA has the tools necessary to bring order to the market. For our part, we're actively engaged with regulators, state and federal lawmakers and trade partners and other stakeholders to build awareness of these serious issues and drive marketplace enforcement. We have also taken more targeted, but necessary action and initiated litigation in the United States District Court in California against 34 organizations, including manufacturers, distributors and online retailers related to the sale of unlawful products. A strong course correction is needed to protect the tobacco farm reduction opportunity for the 30 million adult smokers in the US. Turning to oral tobacco. The nicotine pouch category experienced sizable growth once again, resulting in an estimated 5% increase in total US oral tobacco volumes over the past six months. Full nicotine pouches grew nearly 10 share points year-over-year and now represent more than 32% and the US oral tobacco category. on! participated in the category growth as third quarter reported shipment volumes increased nearly 37% versus the year ago period. During the quarter, Helix focused on continued volume growth, while improving profitability. Helix applied its evolving analytical resources to be more flexible with its promotions in the marketplace. As a result, on!'s retail price increased 33% per can sequentially and 52% versus the prior year, closing the gap [indiscernible] in by over $1 year-over-year. Encouragingly, we continue to see increasing level of both trial and adoption of the brand with repeat purchases up more than 35% year-over-year despite the substantial increase in retail price. In addition, on's! retail share of the oral tobacco category was 6.9%, up 1.7 share points versus the prior year and stable sequentially. Internationally, on! PLUS began its test launch in Sweden, one of the largest modern oral tobacco markets in the world. And consumers are engaging with the brand through both e-commerce and select retail locations. While still early days, we are encouraged by the feedback we've received from consumers. Initial consumer data showed that on! PLUS performed well in the areas of comfort, flavor and overall satisfaction. We believe that on! PLUS' long-lasting flavor system and proprietary software material are differentiators in the category. We are at an exciting period in our history. We have an unprecedented opportunity to responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to our smoke-free future. Our smoke-free portfolio is compelling, and I am encouraged by our initial progress with NJOY and on's! strong performance. I believe we have the appropriate strategy. on! people in place to execute our growth plans. I continue to believe that we can achieve our vision and create long-term value for our shareholders. I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our results.
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks Billy. Let's begin with an update on consumer and industry dynamics. During the third quarter, cigarette industry volume declines continued to be elevated from their historical levels, due in part to macroeconomic factors, and the growth of illegal favored disposable e-vapor products. By design, illicit products are largely distributed through non-traditional untracked channels requiring us to refine our ability to estimate their impacts on the industry. With the information we have today, we believe that there is more cross-category movement than previously assumed. And we now estimate that growth of illegal flavor disposable e-vapor products contributed to industry, cigarette industry declines in the range of 1.5% to 2.5% and over the last 12 months. These updated estimates have been reflected in our decomposition of cigarette industry decline rates. We will continue to monitor this dynamic trend and are actively pursuing better data sources to enhance our estimates in this space. Turning to results for the quarter. The Smokeable Products segment continued to deliver on its strategy of maximizing profitability in combustibles over the long-term, while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of smoke-free products. In fact, during the third quarter, the Smokable Products segment expanded adjusted OCI margins while Marlboro grew its retail share sequentially in the cigarette category and within the Premium segment. Adjusted operating companies income declined by 2.5% in the third quarter, but grew by 0.2% for the first nine months. The adjusted OCI declined during the third quarter was primarily driven by elevated industry volume declines due to the factors I mentioned and higher promotional investments. As a reminder, there was also one fewer shipping day in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter of 2022. Adjusted OCI margins expanded by 0.7% and 0.9% in the third quarter and the first nine months, respectively. Net pricing remained robust, and net price realization for the segment was 8.6% in the third quarter and 9.8% for the first nine months. Marlboro was resilient during the quarter and its retail share of the cigarette category grew 0.3% sequentially to 42.3%, while declining 0.3% versus the year ago period. Promotional investments across the Marlboro portfolio, such as investments in Marlboro Black supported the strong share performance for the quarter. Additionally, Marlboro grew its share within the stable Premium segment to 58.9%, an increase of 0.3% sequentially and 0.4% year-over-year, while other brands ceded share in the Premium segment sequentially and year-over-year. Total discount segment share grew 1.1 percentage points year-over-year to 28.2%, but has been flat since the first quarter of 2023. We believe the recent stability in discount is an encouraging sign, considering the adverse macroeconomic conditions impacting smokers in the premium position of our portfolio. Smokeable Products segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 11.6% in the third quarter and 10.5% for the first nine months. When adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements, third quarter domestic cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 10%. For the first nine months, adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 10.5%. At the industry level, we estimate that adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by 8% in the third quarter and for the first nine months. In Cigars, John Middleton reported exceptional performance through the first nine months and cigar shipment volume increased 4.2%. The Oral Tobacco Products Segment reported strong results during the quarter. As adjusted OCI and OCI margins increased while on! continued to grow its retail share of the oral tobacco category year-over-year. For the third quarter, adjusted OCI grew 7.1% and the segment expanded adjusted OCI margins to 69.3%, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points versus the prior year. This performance was supported by robust net price realization due in part to the more efficient on! promotional investments, Billy described earlier. For the first nine months, the segment grew adjusted OCI by 4.1%, with adjusted OCI margins of 68.9%, up nearly 1 percentage point. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased by 3.3% and 2.3% for the third quarter and for the first nine months, respectively. The segment's volume decline was driven by declines in MSP volumes, partially offset by the growth of on!. When adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements, segment volumes declined by an estimated 2% and 2.5% for the third quarter and first nine months, respectively. Oral Tobacco Products Segment retail share declined 4.2 percentage points in the third quarter as declines in our MSP brands were partially offset by the year-over-year growth of on!. Turning to capital allocation. We continue to return significant cash to shareholders. In the third quarter, we paid approximately $1.6 billion in dividends and raised our dividend by 4.3% in August, in line with our new progressive dividend goal. This increase marked our 58th increase in the last 54 years, and repurchased 5.9 million shares for $260 million. As of the end of the quarter, we had $268 million remaining under our current share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of the year. In addition, our balance sheet remained strong through the quarter. As of the end of the third quarter, our debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.1 times. Let's turn to our financial outlook for the remainder of the year. We are narrowing our full year 2023 guidance range and now expect to deliver diluted -- adjusted diluted earnings per share in a range of $4.91 to $4.98. This range represents a growth rate of 1.5% to 3% from a base of $4.84 in 2022. Finally, at our Investor Day, we announced the creation of our connect and transform open innovation system, which is focused on partnering externally to leverage subject matter expertise, new technologies and disruptive innovations to augment our internal capabilities and support our innovation strategies. As part of this system, today we are publishing 11 innovation briefs. More information is available on altria.com. With that, we'll wrap up and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Pamela Kaufman:
Hi. Good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Pamela.
Pamela Kaufman:
Can you talk about the puts and takes influencing the outlook for the cigarette category as you look over the next few quarters? How are you thinking about the category? And do you view high single digit industry volume declines as the new normal?
Sal Mancuso:
Pamela, first, good morning, and I'll start the answer. So this is very typical of us to narrow guidance as the year plays out, and we're through three quarters, and we were happy to provide more transparency in narrowing our guidance to 1.5% to 3% growth off of last year's adjusted EPS. We feel really good about the guidance we've been able to provide. Of course, across the plan, there's always puts and takes. We feel that we have enough levers to deal with any changes in the marketplace, but we feel good about the narrowing of the guidance. And I think that's, as I said, pretty typical of how we manage guidance as the year progresses.
Pamela Kaufman:
Okay. I was also curious about how you're thinking about the outlook for the cigarette category. And if you expect high single digit industry volume decline to continue going forward.
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. Pamela, as you know, we don't provide look forward guidance. But I think when you think about volume, and it's important to look at the e-comp [ph], we tried to highlight for you that, look, our consumer is still under macroeconomic pressure both the cumulative impact of inflation, but even gas prices moving around. But more importantly, what we're seeing is an influence of the illicit vapor and the impact it's having on the cigarette industry. And you see that we're estimating that to be about 1.5 to 2.5. The reason that's such a broad range is the nature of the illicit product. It's going through distribution channels that we feel like we have some information gaps and we're going to be looking to fill those information gaps. But we wanted to highlight that to that as we discovered it. What we did is we used the data sources we had, and we're able to triangulate it. I would point you to our quarterly metrics that we shared, and you see the significant jump up in adult vapors just over the nine months thus far in 2023. So we think that's having an impact consider out buying too. We talked about some of the enforcement activities, some of the things the FDA could do, some of the things we're doing. And we would look to get that enforcement active in the marketplace.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thanks. And also one area that I was kind of surprised about in the quarter was just the limited amount of NJOY investment spend that appeared to flow through the P&L. So could you elaborate on how you're thinking about NJOY investment over the coming quarters? And do you think that the NJOY brand can be successful and grow in an environment where illicit e-ciggs are unregulated?
Billy Gifford:
We believe, we can grow NJOY brand. Remember, it competes and our focus is in the pod base. The FDA still needs to get through its authorizations and we believe that is going to cause transition in the marketplace as well. I tried to step you through the plan with NJOY as we progress through what we did in the third quarter as we progress through the fourth quarter, but I'll just highlight it. We really wanted to make sure we had the foundation built. And so the focus was on making sure that the supply chain would support the increased line, and we feel good about that. We wanted to fill the inventory gaps and improve visibility in the stores that NJOY was already present, and we've made significant progress on that. Then we're going to expand to 70,000 stores by the end of the year, really with some disruption at retail, we feel like the visibility will continue to improve. But we're in the midst of selling in our trade program, which we think is a sustainable position on the retail fixture at retail. That will take place as we progress into the New Year. And I highlighted the equity campaign is really establishing the brand equity for NJOY and being able to unveil that as we progress into the New Year for the consumer.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thank you. I will pass it on.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And we will take our next question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right. Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog:
Good morning. I had a question on your guidance. You narrowed it, but essentially lowered your EPS growth this year. And then your new EPS guidance this year is below your mid single digit algo. So I guess I'm trying to understand how much of this is due to planned investments as you build your smoke-free vision versus maybe greater-than-expected headwinds. If you could touch on that for us it would help.
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. I appreciate your question, Bonnie. I think this is very typical as we progress through the year. We are able to narrow guidance. That's what we did. I think when you think about the enterprise goals of mid single digit growth, that's really on a compounded annual basis, and we suggested when we did that. We were going to invest in the businesses as we felt that we need to invest, and that's exactly what we're doing. So as we progress through the year, certainly, the enforcement I referred to earlier, as that steps up, that should affect multiple categories in the -- in our portfolio. And so I think it's very typical as we progress through the year to be able to narrow it. We brought up the bottom and brought down the top. So that's what we imprinted to you.
Sal Mancuso:
Bonnie, I'll also remind you that when we restated guidance upon the NJOY deal, there is amortization. It's a non-cash expense drag on the year-over-year comparison.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. That's helpful. And then, I guess, just my next question beyond your Smokable segment. Despite expenses in op margins in the quarter, your dollar profit didn't increase and then your price utilization, I guess, wasn't as robust as I would have thought, given the three big price increases this year when we announced a fourth. And then your controllable cost per pack were up mid-teens. So in the context of all that, could you just talk about some of these drivers as well as your expectations for the rest of the year as it relates to those items. Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Certainly, you saw the overall industry volume at an increased rate of decline, and we tried to highlight that in the decomposition and the impact that the illicit e-vapor was having on the cigarette category. I think when you think about it, look, we're very pleased that margins overall would step up. I wouldn't get hung up in eight quarters price realization. We really think about it through time. So we highlighted as we progressed into the year, that there are a couple of pockets that we needed to invest in. I think you see the benefit of those investments with Marlboro share. And so -- but again, I wouldn't get hung up on any particular quarter, we tend to look at it over a bit longer term than just quarter-to-quarter. And so that's the way we manage the business. I think when you think about the cost, as you have fluctuations again in a quarter as you have fluctuations in volume, that's going to gyrate that controllable cost per pack.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Bonnie.
Operator:
Thank you. And we will take our next question from Andrei Condrea with UBS. Please go ahead.
Andrei Condrea:
Hi. Thank you for taking my question and good morning, Billy. Good morning, Sal. One from me, please. When thinking just about your price increases. Obviously, one you took in Q4 was larger than your previous increases over the past, call it, two years. Should -- basically, my question is should we kind of expect this higher and higher level of price taken from you and your peers as volumes come under pressure from macro factors? Sorry, it was very long-winded. And …
Billy Gifford:
That's right. I think I followed it. Did you have any more there? I didn't want to cut you off.
Andrei Condrea:
Yeah. I got -- I got another one after that.
Billy Gifford:
Okay. Yeah. I'll be careful not to talk about future pricing. But I think when you think about it, again, I would give this an advice that I gave to Bonnie is I wouldn't get hung up on one price increase that took place. We really look at the factors that go into pricing and we've mentioned those before. But I think you see with the stability of Marlboro share in the marketplace. We feel good about the strength of the brand, and we have been able to take those price increases. I would remind you that price elasticity for the industry is a negative 0.35 coefficient factor. We haven't seen anything that would determine that that would need to move, and we feel good about that. So I think when you think about pricing, again, typically, we look at it as price realization versus specific list price. And remember, our price realization is made up of two pieces. One is list price that you saw us take and the other is promotional spend in the marketplace, and that can drive it one way or the other on any given quarter and then through time.
Andrei Condrea:
Thank you. That makes sense. And secondly, I mean we saw -- obviously, you filed a lot of litigation versus illicit vapor manufacturers and well, BAT did the same went by another avenue. Probably what we'd be looking for is any inkling on how long this would take to crystallize, one way or the other?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. Certainly, the legal system will be the legal system. So it's hard to predict how that will transpire. I think there, what we're looking for is an injunction. These products are illegal. And with the lack of enforcement that's taken place by the FDA, we felt like we needed to take action. And so we did that with litigation, and we've done that in other ways with communications to the FDA, meeting with government officials to really show the intolerable nature of what's taking place in the marketplace. Again, you heard it in my remarks, but regulation without enforcement is truly indistinguishable from any -- from having no regulation. If you don't enforce it, it's basically words on paper. So we want to protect harm reduction and the opportunity for the 30 million smokers in the US. So we really need to have enforcement where the smokers can make informed choices as they are moving across categories. I think that there's an underlying positive is that we see adult smokers moving over. So they're ready to have potentially reduced harm products. We just need them to be regulated and based on science to be in the marketplace.
Andrei Condrea:
Very clear. Thank you. I will pass it on. Thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Vivien Azer with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Vivien Azer:
Hi. Thank you. Good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Vivien.
Vivien Azer:
So I wanted to talk about your smokeless margins, just to start very healthy margin improvement. I was wondering if you could just dimensionalize the magnitude of the benefit that you guys saw from the reduction in promo spend on versus kind of the normalized operating leverage that you get from pricing on MSP? Thanks.
SalMancuso:
Good morning, Vivien and thank you for the question. And yeah, we're really happy with the OTP margins. And I would say both traditional smokeless and oral TDN are contributing to the strength of those margins. So you're right to point out the strength of, in particular, Copenhagen in the MSP category. And then as we discussed in our opening remarks, the net pricing increases for on -- both on a year-over-year basis and a sequential basis.
Vivien Azer:
Okay. Understood. And then on Marlboro market share, healthy 30 basis point improvement sequentially is the Premium segment held fair which is certainly good to see given the continued macro pressures you guys have called out on the consumer. I was wondering if you could comment at all on kind of the impact that Marlboro Black Gold had on that potential improvement. Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. We're certainly pleased with the Marlboro Black Gold launch. We're certainly pleased with the utilization that the [indiscernible] has put on Marlboro Black and use in the marketplace to give consumers that are under economic strain, a place to stay with Marlboro because that's what the consumer wants. I think when you think about overall, Marlboro Black, it represents about 10% of the Marlboro franchise. It's very similar as far as being used as a tool, you'll recall this, Vivien, back when we use special blend and the other downturn that we saw in 2008, 2009. And so when you think about it, it's being able to utilize a tool, we're very pleased with the rounding out of the portfolio in Marlboro Black with Mobile Black Gold and very pleased with the results we're seeing in the marketplace.
Vivien Azer:
Sure. That's great. Thanks for that. I'll just squeeze in one last one, if you don't mind. On the last slide of the presentation, you guys highlighted the Nevada menthol share, which did fall off sequentially in the third quarter. Can you offer any color on why you think that is? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
I think it really highlights the illicit activity that takes place in California. You'll recall previously, so some of it was cross-border, but as the illicit activity takes place in California, whether that be menthol cards that we highlighted last time, or even menthol -- menthol cigarettes, finding their way into the state of California. Again, it's another example where probation doesn't work. You don't have enforcement and that illegal activities take place to get the consumer what they're desiring and that's what we're seeing take place in California.
Vivien Azer:
Perfect. That's really helpful. Thank you for that.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Owen Bennett with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Owen Bennett:
Morning, gens. Hope all well. I had a couple of questions around vapor again. And first one, is coming back to disposable enforcement. So realistically, ignoring the actions by yourselves and BAT and looking at FDA specifically, do you actually see kind of any chance of meaningful measures in the next six to 12 months, given obviously, in the middle of last year, the FDA spoke that are now working with the government agencies to address this. And then they also flagged the possibility of possible federal statutory changes to address this. So just love to get your thoughts around if we could see kind of any meaningful action from the statutory perspective or the FDA in the next three to 12 months.
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. It's a good question, Owen. I'm very optimistic. I mean if you think about it, I can think of four simple steps that the FDA could take to really rain and improve the enforcement. One, they could help the trade, be able to identify products that out of compliance. When you think about that, that's just providing a list that's clear, either the ones that are authorized or those that have been denied so that they're not in the marketplace. Once they do that conduct a broad-based retail inspection program. They did that in the cigarette category. They can do that in the e-vapor space. And once they do that, issue maximum penalties and then bring in junction actions against manufacturers and distributors that are openly define FDA regulation. And then I think adopting comprehensive border programs to prevent importation. A lot of these products are imported, they're imported illegally, and then they're sold illegally. So they seem to be very, very simple. That's why I'm optimistic that the FDA will take action and be able to work to bring order to the retail environment.
Owen Bennett:
And then when they spoke about statutory changes, do you see any possibility of that happening?
Billy Gifford:
They have the tools in the authority now for illegal products in the marketplace. So certainly, we would be open to statutory changes. But I mean, when you think about it, they have the ability to do that now, Owen. So it seems like -- and I highlighted those four simple steps. They have the tools and they have the authority to do it today.
Owen Bennett:
Okay. Fine. And then just my second question, on the QC [ph] metrics, you showed a slide highlighting the spike in the number of adult vapors. This has replaced the slide you showed historically that actually showed estimated industry rate volumes. Can you maybe talk about what the volume number was for the quarter? I just want to get a better idea of what the vape impact would be on cigarettes from an absolute volume perspective? Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. What we tried to do, the reason we went with the vapors as we had previously didn't share the volume is the nature of this illicit marketplace. It's hard to track that's the nature of it being illicit. It's going through different distribution channels than what typical products go through because it's illegally getting to the marketplace. I think when you think about the impact of the cigarette volume, what we tried to do on the decomp is show you that we estimate it to be between 1.5 to 2.5 over the last 12 months. So we tried to provide you with that data. Again, as I mentioned earlier, I know that's a bit of a wide range. We're trying to fill what we feel like there are some data gaps so that we have a better read of what's taking place in the marketplace through distribution channels that is different than typical products.
Owen Bennett:
Okay. And then any broad guess of what the sequential volume increase was industry-wise in the second quarter, given kind of the big variance?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. It's -- again, it's tough just because of the nature, all of the growth. We feel like most of the growth that occurred in the e-vapor space. What we saw was pod industry was down slightly. Overall, e-vapor was up, and that growth was coming from the illicit disposables that are in the marketplace.
Owen Bennett:
And then how overall was it? The overall e-vapor?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. Again, with the inability to be able to estimate the total market space because of the illicit product in the marketplace, we didn't want to put an overall growth. We have an estimate, but we don't want to put an overall growth.
Sal Mancuso:
Hey, Owen. This is Sal. And I would also point out, not only is it flavors in this illicit disposable category, flavors are really not in line with regulations. They're flavors like bubblicious cotton candy. I mean, they -- I agree with Billy the need for enforcement is very important, and we need it to happen. We'd like it to happen as soon as possible.
Owen Bennett:
Okay. Thanks gens. It's very helpful. Appreciate it.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will take our next question from Matt Smith with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Matthew Smith:
Hi. Thank you, operator, and good morning all.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Matt.
Matthew Smith:
Wanted to ask a follow-up question around the change in the impact of cross-category dynamics and now the 2% drag you're seeing on cigarette volumes. Can you talk about your expectations for how these consumers that are using the illicit products that are generating that higher drag, how do you expect them to behave once you do see enforcement in the category and these products that they're using today are removed from the marketplace. Do you expect those current users to shift into lawful smoke-free products, including vapor? And then do you then expect the drag to lessen going forward given the removal of the flavor products? Or do you expect the vapor category to continue to grow through the enforcement of illicit products?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. It's a great question. I think when you think about it, certainly, the youth that using the e-vapor, we want them completely out of the category, just to be clear on that. I think when you think about the adults that are moving over, we would want them to stay on reduced risk products. That's why we're excited about the NJOY product and being able to have the distribution and have it readily available for them, it's authorized and have it readily available for them to choose. I think if you look historically, you'll recall when the FDA eliminated flavors and pods, we did see some consumers go back to cigarettes. And so that's best estimate, but it's ultimately up to the consumer, and we'll do our best to keep them in e-vapor space with the NJOY product.
Matthew Smith:
Thank you, Billy. Just as a quick follow-up. I wanted to ask about the distribution opportunity around NJOY. You understand that you laid out the priorities in your first quarter of ownership focusing on the supply chain. But I was curious if there is any prioritization of expanding distribution for if and when FDA actually picks up its enforcement against illicit products, do you need to see a more proactive FDA before you expand the distribution of NJOY to take advantage of the disruption in the marketplace?
Billy Gifford:
We do not. We have the target of 70,000 stores by the end of the year. We feel good about getting into those stores. Certainly, we would appreciate FDA enforcement more so for the -- being able to protect the harm reduction opportunity in the US. But no, we will move forward with our distribution plans as we laid out.
Matthew Smith:
Thank you, Billy. I will pass it on.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. We will take our next question from Gaurav Jain with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Gaurav Jain:
Hi. Good morning, Billy. Good morning, Sal.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning.
Gaurav Jain:
A few questions from me. So first is on these -- the cannibalization impact that you are sharing from e-cigarettes. So given the -- on the modern oral front, it seems that the cannibalization has stepped up on cigarettes because the oral tobacco volumes are much better than what would have thought. So isn't it that modern oral is out of 1% cannibalizing impact on cigarette volumes? And then the e-cigarette cannibalization impact is probably lesser than what you have highlighted?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. I understand your question, Gaurav. I think when we look at the information, certainly, we're having some impact, and we've tried to highlight that from a sourcing perspective with novel oral products. What we highlighted for disposable is what we feel is what's taken place from the disposables. So that's separate and distinct from novel oral. So we feel like what we've estimated that 1.5 to 2.5, and I explained why it's a range. is really the impact of disposable e-cigarettes on cigarettes.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. Thank you. And then second question is clearly, GLP-1 drug, big focus of investors right now across staples, would you have any indication of what's the cigarette prevalence amongst consumers whose BMI is greater 27 versus prevalent some of consumers with BMI less than 27. And that 27 number is where I believe vis-a-vis gets prescribed for consumers with comorbidity. So that's why I'm referencing that 27 number.
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. I understand the theory that you have regarding that. I think when you look at the science, you look at the trends and you look at the fact they've even what's taken place to date related to GLP-1 drugs we see no indication of that. We'll certainly continue to monitor, but we don't see any indication.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. And then a final question is around the menthol cigarette rule-making process. What should we expect from here on in terms of time lines?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. I think you saw that -- it went to the OMB, the Office of Management Budget on October 13, it sits with them. The FDA has announced publicly that they anticipate issuing that by the end of the year, but I think it remains to be seen when that will be issued. So from that standpoint, really you've seen our comments on menthol. We don't think it's based on -- or supported by science and evidence. And so if it's issued, I think you could anticipate potential legal challenges from the industry.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. Thank you so much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Priya [indiscernible] with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, thank you for taking our questions. This is Argus [ph] in for Priya. We saw that you just filed your updated shelf. How are you thinking about entering the January maturity in light of the current market backdrop? Thank you.
Sal Mancuso:
Yeah. As you think about debt coming due in maturities, we've done a really nice job, I believe, the treasury department in managing our debt portfolio and the maturity towers. So they do a fantastic job of monitoring the market. I think we have flexibility on how we handle that. And so I really have nothing else to report at this time regarding our maturities early next year.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We will take our next question from Jacob de Klerk with Redburn Atlantic. Jacob, your line is open. Please check your mute function. All right. We will continue on with Steve Marascia with Capital Securities Management. Please go ahead.
Steven Marascia:
Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. Just sort of a follow-up. Looking at your consolidated statement of earnings, you guys reported interest and debt expense about $272 million. Given the current ongoing in the treasury department rise in rates, is -- do you anticipate that number remaining level? Or should we expect some type of bump up? And if so, any idea in terms of bump up towards what?
Sal Mancuso:
Yeah. We provide a guidance or an estimate on our depreciation and amortization. It's about $280 million for the year. You are right to point out that there are higher levels of interest rates in the capital -- in the debt market. But again, we believe we have appropriate flexibility as we think about refinancing or paying down debt in the future. We've also provided our debt to EBITDA corporate goals, if you will, our targets, and it could fluctuate a little bit over time depending on corporate needs and things like that. So we've dealt with high interest markets in the past. They are higher than what we've seen in recent past, but in the recent past. But again, we have strong cash generation by our operating companies and we have really good flexibility as we think about managing our maturities.
Steven Marascia:
Thank you.
Sal Mancuso:
Sure.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will take our next question from Jacob De Klerk with Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.
Jacob De Klerk:
Guys, can you hear me now?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, we can hear you.
Jacob De Klerk:
Perfect. I just have a quick question on NJOY. If all of the brands are not allowed in flavors including menthol, do you think there's so enough demand for tobacco flow-base over a profitable business in the US going forward?
Billy Gifford:
We believe there is. I think when you think about it, I wouldn't rule up menthol. We feel good about the application, the current application in front of the FDA from a menthol standpoint. I think if you look at some of the recent marketing denial orders, it was related to new following. And as we pointed out when we made the NJOY transaction, there was virtually no use following. As far as additional flavors, we're excited and currently looking forward to being able to file in the near future, and we'll come back to you when we are able to do that of additional flavors with access control. We believe that allows for adult consumers to have it as an off-ramp, but not an on ramp for underage users. So we still see the potential for flavors. But to answer your question, we feel like the consumer wants alternative products. We followed that previously, and they'll continue to want that.
Jacob De Klerk:
Perfect. And just a quick follow-up on your oral business. How do you kind of stop the flow of consumers moving to nicotine pouch category? I know you've got the on! brand there. But is this a structural shift you're seeing away from the traditional oral business to the nicotine pouches?
Billy Gifford:
That certainly is the biggest outflow or inflow into nicotine pouches is coming from traditional MST consumers. Our plans there, and we highlighted them is participate with on!. And then we're excited to be able to file the PMTA for on! PLUS. And we highlighted while it's early, some of the consumer engagement that we're having over in Sweden, and we feel like that's a great product, and we're looking forward to be able to bring that to market once we receive authorization.
Jacob De Klerk:
Thank you.
Operator:
And there appears to be no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Mac Livingston for any closing remarks.
End of Q&A:
Mac Livingston:
Thanks Ashley. Thanks to all for joining us. Please contact the Investor Relations team if you have further questions. Thanks, and have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you, and this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2023 Second Quarter and First Half Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria’s management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Charley. Good morning and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria’s CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria’s second quarter and first half business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2022. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our Board. We report our financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both, a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and the reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today’s remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Matt. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We had a solid first half of the year, and we continue on our exciting journey towards Moving Beyond Smoking. We completed our acquisition of NJOY and delivered strong business results, growing adjusted diluted earnings per share by 5% in the first half, and we returned $3.8 billion to shareholders while investing in pursuit of our Vision. We look forward to executing our commercialization plan for NJOY in the second half of the year, and we reaffirm our guidance to deliver 2023 full-year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.89 to $5.03. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 1% to 4% from a $4.84 base in 2022. My remarks this morning will focus on three topics
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks, Billy. The smokeable product segment continued to deliver on its strategy of maximizing profitability and combustibles over the long term, while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro, with funding the growth of smoke free products. The segment grew its adjusted operating company’s income by 3.1% in the second quarter and by 1.7% in the first half. Adjusted OCI margins expanded to more than 60% for the second quarter and first half. This performance was supported by robust net price realization of 10.1% in the second quarter and 10.5% for the first half. At retail, Marlboro net pack price increased 6.1% in the second quarter compared to last year. Smokeable product segment reported domestic cigarette volumes decline by 8.7% in the second quarter and 10% in the first half. When adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements, second quarter and first half domestic cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 10% and 10.5% respectively. At the industry level, we estimate that adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by 7.5% in the second quarter and by 8% in the first half. At retail, the total discount segment share grew 1.8 percentage points year-over-year to 28.2%, but was flat sequentially. We believe some smokers are trading down as a result of the adverse financial conditions that Billy described. We also continue to see increased competitive activity in the discount segment, including multiple branded discount offerings priced at the discount levels. As Billy mentioned, Marlboro displayed resiliency during a period of economic pressure for consumers. In the second quarter, Marlboro’s retail share of the cigarette category grew a tenth sequentially to 42.1% while declining six-tenths versus the year ago period, partially driven by the discount dynamics that I described. We have also seen a decline in Marlboro's menthol share of the total category as a result of the California Flavor Ban and increased competitive activity from premium menthol brands in the balance of the country. Additionally, Marlboro grew its share within the premium segment to 58.6%, an increase of one-tenth sequentially and five-tenths year-over-year, while other brands seated share in the segment over the past year. We believe Marlboro’s performance over the long-term is a testament to its positioning within the premium segment as the aspirational brand with strong consumer loyalty. In cigars, reported cigars shipment volume increased 5% in the first half. To continue this momentum, the Middleton team is expanding Royal, which will further enhance Black & Mild past the tip [ph] offerings. The team expects Black & Mild and Royal to be available nationally later this month. Moving to the oral tobacco product segment; second quarter adjusted OCI grew 3% and the segment expanded adjusted OCI margins to 68%. This performance was supported by robust net price realization, due in part to more efficient on! promotional investments. In the first half, the segment grew adjusted OCI by 2.6%, with strong adjusted OCI margins of 68.7%. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased by 1.7% and 1.8% for the second quarter and the first half respectively. The segments volume decline was driven by declines in MSP volumes, partially offset by the growth of on! When adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences, segment volume declined by an estimated 2.5% for both the second quarter and first half. Oral tobacco product segment retail share declined 2.8 percentage points in the second quarter as declines in our MST brands were partially offset by the continued growth of on! We continue to be encouraged by the performance of our oral tobacco products, as on! continued to grow share in a competitive category and Copenhagen remained the category leader. Moving to our investment in ABI, we recorded $132 million of adjusted equity earnings in the second quarter. This was an increase of approximately 6.5% from the year ago period and represents Altria’s share of ABI's first quarter 2023 results. Our balance sheet remains strong and as of the end of the second quarter, our debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.2x. In July, we received the remaining $1.7 billion plus interest from Philip Morris International as a part of the ICO’s agreement we announced last fall. After receiving the payment, we repaid the term loan we entered to finance the NJOY transaction. We remain committed to creating long-term shareholder value through the pursuit of our vision and our focus on significant capital returns and maintaining a strong balance sheet. We demonstrated this commitment in the first half by completing our acquisition of NJOY, retiring approximately $1.6 billion in long-term notes at maturity with available cash, paying approximately $3.4 billion in dividends, and repurchasing $10.4 million shares totaling $472 million. At the end of June, we had $528 million remaining under the currently authorized $1 billion share repurchases program, which we expect to complete by the end of this year. With that, we'll wrap up and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altri.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Billy Gifford :
Just quickly before we turn it over to the Q&A, I just want to apologize to those of you on the webcast for some audio issues we had early on in the call. So we will work to expedite the posting of our replay, so you'll have full access to the remarks. So with that, we'll turn to Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Investors, analysts, and media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. We will take questions from the investment community first. We'll take our first question from Pam Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pam Kaufman:
Hi! Good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning.
Pam Kaufman:
How do you think about the long-term industry volume outlook for the cigarette category? Cigarette industry volumes were down 8% in the first half of this year. Do you expect industry volumes will return to the mid-single-digit decline rate? And what would need to happen for them to normalize towards that level?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, thanks for the question Pamela. I think when you think about it, and we’ve discussed this a little bit in the first quarter, but I think it's worth a reminder. Remember, in the COVID pandemic, we actually saw what we believe added nicotine occasions to adult smokers day. As we came out of the COVID pandemic and you saw mobility increase, you would expect some of those nicotine occasions to come back out of their day. And I think that was exacerbated by the cumulative effect of inflation. So we had nicotine occasions coming back out of their day and exacerbated by cumulative inflation. So when you think about it, I think it's best to go back in history a bit and look at similar occurrences where the adult tobacco consumer was under extreme economic pressure. And you can look at ’08, ’09 and you see similar occurrences there. What we see with the adult cigarette consumers, it takes a bit of time for them to adjust to their new situation. And you see typically, and we saw it in ’08, ’09 and ’01, ’02, the consumer returned to their basic normal nicotine occasions in the day. So I think what we're seeing right now, even though inflation is coming down on a cumulative basis, it's still growing. So the consumer is still under economic pressure. You recall that in the first quarter we put some extra investments behind a couple of pockets of areas where we saw a competitor get aggressive with menthol offerings, and where we saw the consumer under pressure and looking to discount. And you see we're extremely pleased with the results of those investments as Marlboro picked up a tenth quarter-over-quarter.
Pam Kaufman:
Thanks, that's helpful. And in your prepared remarks, you touched on some of the initiatives that you have to drive NJOY growth. Now that you've owned the business for two months, can you just elaborate on where you see opportunities to operate the brand more efficiently? And how are you thinking about the contribution from NJOY over the coming quarters and the level of investment that you'll need to make behind the brand?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, thanks for the question. You're right. There was a month in the results for the quarter, and now we've surpassed another month. Our focus will be on the pod-based product, the ACE NJOY, and you heard my remarks, filling distribution gaps as well as visibility. Just to characterize that, only 3,000 stores currently in distribution carry all top three ACE pod SKUs and about 10,000 stores carry the pods but no devices. So the focus will be both, on filling those distribution gaps and improving visibility, while at the same time enhancing Ace's brand equity to increase both brand awareness and appeal amongst adult smokers and vapors.
Pam Kaufman:
Great. Thank you.
A - Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right, thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog:
I had a question on your guidance. You reaffirmed your EPS growth guidance of 1% to 4% this year, which remains pretty darn wide, especially given only five months left this year. So I guess I'm trying to understand this, and what headwinds do you see that would cause you to come in at the lower end of your guidance, which implies negative low single-digit EPS growth in the second half?
A - Billy Gifford:
Well, certainly we’ve highlighted for you Bonnie that we'll be investing behind the NJOY brand as we expand distribution and have equity spending. I think the other thing is, look, the economy is very dynamic right now, and we've highlighted for you that the adult cigarette consumer is under extreme pressures, and we want the flexibility to adapt to them and be there for our consumers if necessary. So I think we'll see how the economy progresses and we'll see how the adult cigarette consumer returns to, if you will, more of a comfortable position from an economic standpoint.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay, I guess that makes sense. I mean, you have flexibility with some of your investments. So I'm curious, just Billy, can you give us a sense of how much you expect your investment to step up this year versus last year?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I won't go into details just for competitive reasons. Certainly we'll be, as I mentioned, really enhancing the brand equity to increase awareness amongst both adult vapors and adult cigarette consumers, and then we'll be looking for distribution. So both, filling distribution gaps, as well as improving the visibility of ACE in stores where it's currently distributed and then expanding to new stores.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. And then just maybe one final question for me, just on the relative price gaps which continue to widen. I guess I think it's now the widest it's been for maybe 15 years. I know I've asked you this before, but given it keeps widening, I guess I'd like to hear how your strategy might be changing, given the costs you just mentioned on the consumer and then what the deep discount manufacturers are doing. Just curious to hear how flexible you might be with your pricing promo strategy and then certainly, your strategy behind leveraging Marlboro Black to potentially minimize down trading. Thanks, Billy.
A - Billy Gifford:
Yes, thanks. And I'll be careful to not talk about future pricing, but I think you can see like going from first to second quarter. We highlighted for you some areas of where we thought additional investment was necessary and you saw the significant result of those Marlboro increasing a tent sequentially. So we want that flexibility, but I would remind you that the RGM tools, so that price gap that you're seeing is on a national basis, and the RGM tools that we have in the advanced analytics allows us to monitor that price gap down to a very, very low level and we can be efficient with spend and even move spend around if necessary, around the U.S. So that's how we're thinking about it. From a standpoint of Marlboro itself, you see it continues to grow in the premium segment. It's performing very well. And as I highlighted for Pamela, we've seen instances of this in the history of when the consumer is under pressure that you see discount grow, you see premium from a total industry perspective, and then you see that moderate through time.
Bonnie Herzog:
Thank you.
A - Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Vivien Azer with TD Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
Good morning.
A - Billy Gifford:
Good morning.
Vivien Azer:
So I'd like to start on your oral tobacco margins, please. Quite nice to see some year-over-year improvement given kind of the multiyear degradation we've seen in support of on! So Sal, I was wondering, can you just comment on how we should think about margins for oral tobacco in the back half? Thanks.
A - Sal Mancuso:
Yes, I'm going to be careful not to talk about future quarters. I will agree with you, we're really happy with the margin performance in the OTP segment. You know for year-to-date, OTP margins, as I said in my remarks were over 68%. What you're seeing, I think is the success of on! where we've grown share each quarter. And as we talked about in our earlier remarks, you see increased pricing of 17% on a year-over-year basis. So I think that shows the strength of on! in the marketplace, but we're really excited about the progress on! is making and the overall OTP performance.
Vivien Azer:
Certainly. Thank you for that. And then for my follow-up question, Billy, nice to see the Marlboro market share advance sequentially, despite some of the heightened competitive activity that you called out from competitive premium menthol offerings. Do you – just given kind of the competitive backdrop, do you think that you need to have the Marlboro Black Gold in the marketplace longer than you had originally contemplated?
A - Billy Gifford:
Look, we think that's an addition to our portfolio. It certainly gives the Marlboro team – it rounds out the Black portfolio. The Marlboro Black, the family has been around a while. We saw this as a gap in that portfolio and we filled that. So from a standpoint of overall Marlboro Black, you can think about that as about 10% of Marlboro, and it certainly gives the consumer a safe place or a place to land if they are under economic pressure. And as you've seen previously, when we use tools like this, we're able to shrink the gap to mainline through times. So it's about keeping mainline very strong, which we're very pleased that it is, and then having a place for the Marlboro consumer, because Marlboro is still the aspirational brand in the cigarette category. Having a place for them to land when they are under economic pressure, and as the situation changes, we can shrink that gap to mainline.
Vivien Azer:
Certainly. Thank you so much for that.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Matt Smith with Stifel.
Matt Smith:
Hey, good morning.
A - Billy Gifford:
Good morning Matt.
Matt Smith:
Billy, I just – I wanted to follow-up on your commentary about the level of investment in the cigarette business. And are we in an environment now with the enhanced digital tools in more efficient ways to engage with your consumers, that you expect more volume to be sold using promotional activity, even as economic conditions improve.
A - Billy Gifford:
Yes, I wouldn't think of it as more volume under promotional. I think it's being more efficient and effective with that promotional spend. It's trying to get it to the individual consumers as close as we can get to that, that needs it, while not subsidizing adult cigarette consumers that don't need it. And I think you've seen that with both, the growth of Marlboro in the premium space, the investments we made first to second as Marlboro [ph] has the 10th sequentially bump and the price realization we're experiencing in the cigarette space.
Matt Smith:
Okay, thank you for that. And if I could ask another question on the growth on the on! oral brand. The growth there remains robust even as you've reduced promotional activity. Can you remind us where the brand stands today in terms of distribution and how we should think about the drivers of growth for on! in the second half of the year?
A - Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think from a distribution we've got it in the stores and while you may see small fluctuations as we decide if we want to add additional stores and distribution, but we've got it to where we want it. You’ll recall we were capacity constrained from a manufacturing basis where beyond that it continues to grow. I would say that growth as we move forward, as it continues, even though we've been talking about it and you guys have been talking about it for a while, it's still fairly new to the consumer. So it is continuing to drive awareness and specifically trial. Once the consumer tries it, they enjoy the product. So that's where the growth will come as the success in achieving new consumers to the category as they transition. I think when you think about that transition through time, it's important to remember that you're looking at the consumer, specifically dippers that are moving currently in large amounts, but it's also talking to the cigarette consumer and it allows oral tobacco product to be available to consumers that previously rejected moist smokeless tobacco.
Matt Smith:
Thank you for that Billy. I’ll pass it on.
A - Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Andrei Condrea with UBS.
Andrei Condrea:
Hi, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Two from me please, if you don't mind. Firstly, when looking at the U.S. Cigarette industry, we saw that discount was stable on a sequential basis, bucking the trend from the past three to four years. How much of that do you think could be attributed to your Marlboro Black Gold for instance, and just increased promo activity from your NPS? Thank you.
A - Billy Gifford:
Yes, I don't know if I would specifically attribute it to increased promo. As we've highlighted for you, the adult cigarette consumer in the U.S. is really under economic pressure and so you look to certainly give them places to land, specifically in Marlboro a place to land, where they can continue to engage with Marlboro. We see that as both, less expensive versus than leaving and returning, and we've been successful with that in the past, and I think you see the result first to second quarter.
Andrei Condrea:
Makes sense, thank you. And secondly, this is a bit more medium-term, but as you're pushing harder into vaping now with NJOY, illicit products are a problem on the market as flagged by one of your peers. What can you and said peer do more to, well, basically improve enforcements in the area and get those numbers down?
A - Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think its continued engagement, both with congress as well as the FDA, so really making this their top priority. You saw under aged use of e-vapor come down, but it's essential that the FDA really focused on enforcement, its illicit products in the marketplace with flavors that are not authorized. And so you saw in the most recent national youth tobacco survey that the most popular product with youth following was in the list of products in the marketplace. Now they have started stepping up their enforcement, but it needs to be more vigorous in the marketplace. Even if they would just publish a list of those products that are authorized and those that are under review, it would certainly level stuff at the trade, because the enforcement that they are doing while encouraging isn't enough to change what the marketplace is – what we're experiencing in the marketplace.
Andrei Condrea:
Very clear, thank you. I’ll pass it on.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll take our next question from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Hi. Good morning, Billy. Good morning Sal.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning.
Gaurav Jain:
Hi. A couple of questions from me. So one is on the e-cigarette industry growth, clearly disposables are cannibalizing closed end e-cigarettes. So why are you launching the NJOY ACE and not the NJOY daily product? In that context, can you also just tell us where you are with the PMPA application of the next gen product, which is – which you have mentioned you have filed.
A - Billy Gifford:
Yes, so let's break that down. So the first part, I think if you think about the e-vapor category, certainly there's a large pod base of consumers and so we certainly see that as an opportunity. And you heard in the remarks, you know the NJOY ACE is the only pod that has received FDA authorization. When you think about the disposable side, the growth, at least what we're seeing in the marketplace is with the factor of flavors that are illicitly in the marketplace. So as the FDA certainly steps up enforcement and we see enforcement take place and those illicit products come out of the marketplace, we see the potential again, because NJOY was able to receive authorization for their disposable, the opportunity for growth in that space. But we feel like the appropriate focus is on that large pod base, consumer base, until the illicit plethora of flavors and the flavors that are illicitly in the marketplace are cleaned up. From a standpoint of the age restriction I think you were referring to, you know we just recently closed it and we're excited about that technology. We're assessing the timing of following that. You know we would have a target in mind by the end of this year. But I think what's so exciting about it is it's the regulatory team that we certainly welcome onboard from the NJOY that was – that successfully navigated it. It’s the only pod based product that has navigated the regulatory. So we're excited. They had started the application and again, we would target following that by the end of the year.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. Thank you. And can you also update us on this Juul patent litigation that they have filed against NJOY, which I found very surprising, considering I thought you would have – when you walked away from June, you would have gained access to all their IP. So could you just help us understand what's happening there?
A - Billy Gifford:
Sure. We believe that the litigation against us is meritless and we're vigorously looking to respond to that. If we step back from it, we think it's interesting that Juul only brought the suit after we completed the acquisition. The litigation, if you think about it from a standpoint of the merits of it, it really feels like a bit of an active desperation if you will. The spiteful competition is really from the only pod based product that the FDA has determined appropriate for the protection of public health. So we see it as meritless.
Gaurav Jain:
Okay, sure, and if I could just sneak in one last one, because you mentioned that on! PLUS you will launch in Sweden even if it is targeted. Would you also be looking at launching NJOY internationally at some point of time?
A - Billy Gifford:
Yes, the focus currently as we mentioned, you know still in the distribution gaps on the existing stores in the U.S., expanding distributions to approximately 70,000 stores by the end of this year, and we'll come back to you on international, and any international plans when it's appropriate.
Gaurav Jain:
Well, thank you so much.
A - Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
And there appears to be no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Mac Livingston for any closing remarks.
Mac Livingston :
Thank you for your time this morning. If you have any follow up questions, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. Thanks and have a great day!
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2023 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks with Altria’s management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations with Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Katie. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria’s CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria’s first quarter business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2022. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our Board. We report our financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both, a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today’s remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We are off to a strong start and believe our businesses are on track to deliver against full year plans. Our tobacco businesses performed well in a challenging macroeconomic environment, and we announced exciting progress toward our vision. Highlights from our first quarter included strong adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 5.4%, resilient end-market performance from our leading brands, including Marlboro and Copenhagen and continued volume and share growth from on!, and announcements made at our Investor Day, including updates on our pending acquisition of NJOY, the unveiling of our exciting smoke-free products in development, and the introduction of our 2028 Enterprise Goals. Let’s now review first quarter results in more detail, beginning with the macroeconomic environment and its impact on industry cigarette volumes. In the first quarter, consumer discretionary income levels remained under pressure due to the active effect of higher inflation over the past year. As a reminder, the cigarette industry experienced a higher rate of volume decline beginning in the second quarter of 2022 as smokers shifted their purchasing behavior as a result of widespread inflation and the rapid increase in gas prices that were exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While gas prices began to recede in the second half of last year, higher inflation persisted across other goods and services and cigarette volumes remained under pressure. Moving into the first quarter of 2023, the cumulative effects of inflation over the past several quarters continued to impact tobacco consumers’ discretionary income and tobacco industry volumes. We will continue to monitor these factors and their impact on tobacco consumers as we progress throughout the year. Sal will provide additional color on industry volume in his remarks. Let’s now turn to the oral tobacco category. We are excited by the continued growth of oral nicotine pouch products, which grew their share of the total oral tobacco category for the 20th consecutive quarter. Oral nicotine pouches grew 7.1 share points year-over-year and now represent 26.2% of the oral tobacco category. Encouragingly, continued oral nicotine pouch growth was the primary contributor to the estimated 1% increase in total oral tobacco volumes over the past six months. Helix grew on! reported shipment volume to 25.2 million cans during the first quarter, an increase of 38%. On! continued its momentum at retail growing its share of the total oral tobacco category by 2.4 share points to 6.5% and on! continued to grow its share of the nicotine pouch category, reaching 24.6% in the first quarter, up 3.3 percentage points. Notably, on outgrew Zen sequentially on an absolute basis in 50,000 stores. Helix delivered these impressive results as on!’s retail price grew 7% sequentially and 32% versus the year-ago period. We believe on!’s ability to continue to grow share while effectively reducing its promotional investment demonstrates the strength of its product portfolio and brand equity. Helix is continuing its focus while strategically investing behind the brand as the category grows and remains committed to achieving profitability in 2025. Let’s now move to e-vapor, which has been the most successful category in the U.S. in transitioning smokers to alternative products. We believe the category is continuing to undergo a significant reset, and we estimate that first quarter e-vapor volumes decreased 11% versus a year ago and 1% sequentially. We have observed a decline in traditional multi-outlet and convenience channel volumes, which we believe is primarily a result of the FDA marketing denial orders issued for JUUL and myblu. This volume decline has been partially offset by increased volume in nontraditional channels, such as e-commerce and vape stores. We are excited about our pending acquisition of NJOY and its portfolio of e-vapor products. NJOY is the only company to receive a marketing granted order for pod-based product. We continue to believe the strength of our commercial resources can benefit smokers and vapors across the U.S. and expand smoke-free competition in stores where NJOY ACE has not been distributed. The completion of the NJOY transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including clearance from the Federal Trade Commission. Moving to the regulatory environment. We remain optimistic about the future of harm-reduction in the U.S., and we continue to encourage the FDA to make more progress for the benefit of the 47 million tobacco consumers. In February, the FDA provided a response to the Reagan-Udall Foundation’s assessment of FDA’s tobacco operations. We are encouraged that the agency recognizes some important areas for improvement, including developing and communicating a five-year strategic plan, improving transparency and defining more efficient pathways, increasing enforcement of marketing denial orders and exploring ways the agency can and should address nicotine risk perceptions through communication. We look forward to learning more details on these efforts. In addition, FDA enforcement is critical to making continued progress toward reducing youth usage of e-vapor products. The FDA has the necessary enforcement tools. And we encourage them to take the appropriate action against noncompliant manufacturers. We continue to believe that harm reduction, not prohibition is the best path forward and we have made this clear in the public comments we submitted in response to the FDA’s proposed menthol ban. Our comments highlight the many unintended consequences of prohibition, including the adoption of adulterated and unregulated products and the development of illicit markets. Unfortunately, we believe a number of those consequences are playing out in California, where a ban on flavored nicotine products went into effect in late 2022. Our operating companies immediately ceased the shipment of products to California wholesalers that we determined were not compliant with the law. That brand’s continued to perform well in the state with Marlboro and Copenhagen growing retail share sequentially. However, we remain concerned with the lack of enforcement in the state as some flavored products remained in the market. We also believe some manufacturers have introduced new products, or rebranded existing ones to sidestep the purpose of the law. In March, menthol cigarettes still represented nearly 40% (sic) [4%] of the volumes sold in the multi-outlet channel in California, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from January. Additionally, we have seen evidence that some California smokers are self mentholating their cigarettes using alternative products such as flavor cards and menthol drops. We have also observed flavored e-vapor products in the market that appear to have been renamed to mislead state regulators. And trade dynamics in surrounding states suggest that some smokers are crossing state borders to purchase menthol products. For example, the share of menthol in Nevada increased 1.3 percentage points sequentially in the first quarter to 37.4%. We believe this is significant as the total share of menthol in Nevada has not been greater than 36.5% over the past four years. Compliance remains a top priority, and our government affairs teams are engaging with California government officials to encourage them to enhance enforcement and to hold all manufacturers to the same standard. Our goal is for policymakers to embrace harm reduction as the proper framework for tobacco and nicotine product regulation. In fact, public opinion strongly favors harm reduction over prohibition, and science shows a significant public health benefit of moving smokers away from combustible products toward a smoke-free future. As we described at our Investor Day, we are continuing our efforts to create the conditions for harm reduction to succeed through advocacy, engagement and our actions. I believe we are well positioned for success in 2023 and beyond. And while the external environment remains dynamic, I am confident that we have the tools in place to succeed. We have amazing brands, sound strategies and most importantly, talented indebted employees. With these things in mind, we reaffirm our guidance to deliver 2023 full year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.98 to $5.13. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 3% to 6% from a $4.84 base in 2022 and excludes the potential financial impacts of the pending NJOY transaction. I’ll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our results.
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks, Billy. In the smokeable products segment, we continued to execute our strategy of maximizing profitability in combustibles over the long term while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro funding the growth of our smoke-free portfolio. Smokeable segment adjusted operating companies income was essentially unchanged, and the segment expanded its adjusted OCI margins to 60.4%, driven by strong net price realization of 10.9%. As a reminder, manufacturer price realization does not reflect the retail price change. At retail, Marlboro’s net pack price increased 6.8% in the first quarter compared to last year. Total smokeable segment reported shipment volumes declined by 11.1% in the first quarter, as an 11.4% decline in cigarette volumes was partially offset by modest growth in cigars. When adjusted for trade inventory movement, calendar differences and other factors, we estimate that segment domestic cigarette volumes for the first quarter declined by 11% and that industry volumes declined by 9% over the same period. As Billy mentioned, we believe that industry volume trends have been negatively impacted by the cumulative effects of higher inflation, and we expect volume declines to moderate over time as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes. At retail, the discount segment grew 1.8 share points in the first quarter and 0.5 sequentially. We believe some smokers today are trading down as a result of adverse financial conditions. We continue to see increased competitive activity in the discount segment, including multiple branded discount offerings priced at deep discount levels. Marlboro’s share declined 0.2 sequentially and 0.6 versus the year ago period, partially driven by the discount dynamics that I described. We have also seen a decline in Marlboro’s menthol share of the total category as a result of the California flavor ban and increased competitive activity from premium menthol brands in the balance of the country. However, we believe that Marlboro remains the aspirational brand in the category as it retained the majority of its share in this challenging environment, growing its share of the premium segment to 58.5%, an increase of 0.1 sequentially and 0.7 year-over-year, while other brands ceded share in the segment. And we believe at PM USA has the appropriate tools to navigate this challenging environment. For example, we recently announced a series of investments behind the Marlboro Black family of products, which are intended to provide additional support for price-sensitive Marlboro smokers. Included in these investments is the introduction of Marlboro Black Gold pack non-menthol offerings with a smooth flavor and rich taste. These products are intended to bolster the offerings within the Marlboro Black family of products and will be available nationwide, beginning in May. Our RGM and advanced analytics capabilities inform the geographies and promotional rates for these strategic investments, allowing us to be precise with our spend while supporting our overall strategy for the segment. And as a result of the flavor ban in California, PM USA shipments to California retailers declined 12.8% in the state while reported industry shipments to retailers declined 18.8%. We’ve included more details related to first quarter California market dynamics in our metrics document that is available on altria.com. Moving to the oral tobacco products segment. Adjusted OCI grew 2.2% in the first quarter and the segment delivered strong adjusted OCI margins of 69.3%. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased 1.8% as growth in on! was more than offset by lower MST volumes. When adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements, we estimate that first quarter oral tobacco segment volumes declined by an estimated 3%. Oral tobacco products segment retail share declined 1.8 percentage points as declines in our MST brands were partially offset by the continued growth of on!. We continue to be encouraged by the performance of our oral tobacco products as on! continued to grow share in the category and Copenhagen remained the category leader. Turning to our investment in ABI. We recorded $180 million of adjusted equity earnings for the quarter, up 28%. We continue to view the ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal remains to maximize the long-term value of the investment for our shareholders. Our balance sheet remains strong. And as of the end of the first quarter, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.1. In February, we retired $1.3 billion of notes that came due with available cash. And as part of the IQOS agreement we announced last fall, we expect to receive the remaining $1.7 billion plus interest from Philip Morris International by July of this year. We remain committed to creating long-term shareholder value through the pursuit of our vision and our focus on significant capital returns. We demonstrated this commitment in the first quarter, by paying approximately $1.7 billion in dividends and announcing a new progressive dividend goal that targets mid-single-digit dividend growth annually through 2028. Due to the timing of our announcement of the NJOY transaction, we did not repurchase any shares in the first quarter. As of March 31st, we had $1 billion remaining under the current share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of this year. With that, we’ll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I’ll remind you that today’s earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We’ve also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let’s now open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
I guess my first question is on your cig volumes, which were pretty pressured this quarter down 11%, and that’s actually comping some pretty significant decline. So could you maybe just -- I don’t know, I’m thinking take a step back for us and then give us a better sense of what you’re seeing in the category? How much of the pressure is attributable to down-trading and then the pressures that are mounting on the consumer? Also, it looks like many of your estimates for the industry, which now appears strong. So just maybe a little more color on what’s driving that change would be helpful.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. Thanks for the question, Bonnie. I think, I’ll try to take it in part. So, I think when you think about the consumer, we tried to highlight in our remarks where you’re seeing the cumulative impact of high inflation across all of their spending categories. So it’s not just high inflation in the quarter, it’s the cumulative impact of that through time. I think certainly, you’re seeing interest rates climb, which is impacting consumers, mortgages, credit cards, car loans. And underneath all that, to respond to the consumer, we are seeing accelerated debt as well as decline of savings rates. So they’re using what they have available to them. But it’s the cumulative impact of that. It’s not new to the cigarette space. I think you can go back in history a bit, and we see other instances where the consumer came under extreme pressure. You can look at the ‘08, ‘09 period or the ‘01, ‘02 period, and you see where the consumer -- in those instances were under pressure because of the recessions that were taking place. Here, the other factors I described, we feel like we have the tools in place. I think you see the resiliency of Marlboro in the marketplace, gaining share in the premium space. Certainly, we’ve seen competitors, I’ll call it using your term, Bonnie, share at the bottom, where they’re pricing some of their discount brands at deep discount levels. And really, if you think about our strategy in the cigarette space, that’s to maximize profitability over the long term while making appropriate investments in Marlboro and the growth areas. I think when you think about the question about price elasticity, yes, we made the minor investment at Investor Day. But if you look at even the decomposition that we provided in our metrics, you can see that’s been pretty consistent over the past four periods that we showed on a 12-month moving. We really don’t see anything there from a standpoint of the consumer -- any changes in the price elasticity other than the minor adjustment that we made going into Investor Day.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right. And then just maybe one more question just as it relates to price gaps and your share, your relative price gaps have widened again this quarter, I guess, to 43%. So, while we get a sense from you how concerned are you about that as well as Marlboro share was pressured, obviously, given some of the obvious pressures you’ve highlighted on the consumer but maybe also in light of the frequency and strength of some of the pricing actions you guys actually just took your price increase this year. So just trying to get a sense of how much room do you see for further pricing at these levels? And how flexible maybe are you in terms of your promotional strategy as ways to offset some of the pressure the consumer is facing. I guess, I’m just wondering if there’s a point where it becomes difficult to keep some of the Marlboro consumers in the brand family. Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I appreciate the question, Bonnie. And I’m sure you’ve seen with your connections to retail as part of that price announcement, we also made a separate announcement making some adjustments to promotional spend in the marketplace. Those adjustments are really down at the local level. And what we are seeing were pockets of area where we felt like Marlboro menthol was under pressure and Sal highlighted in his remarks, stepped up promotional spend by a competitor in the menthol space. So, we’re making some adjustments there using various packings within the Marlboro franchise depending on what resonates with the consumer in those localities. Some of the other adjustments are related to, exactly your question, where we see the consumer under extreme economic pressure, and we’re making some adjustments within the Marlboro franchise on promotional spend to counteract and give them a place where they can continue to engage with Marlboro. It’s not new. We’ve done this before, Bonnie. I’m sure you’re well aware, whether you think about Marlboro Special Blend in history, which is now Special Select in the marketplace. What it allows us to do is to keep the consumer who aspires to be a Marlboro consumer, engage with Marlboro, and then as their economic conditions change, we can actually shrink that promotional discount to the Marlboro mainline. And what we see through time is it’s actually much more efficient and effective because we see in going back in history when we did it with Special Blends, some of the consumers as we shrunk that discount popped back to mainline and some of them stuck with Special Blend because it was a flavor that they enjoyed. So, we feel like we have the tools available to us, and we’ll continue to monitor all those adjustments that we announced effective May were included in the reaffirmation of the guidance.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Vivien Azer with TD Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
Thank you so much for the incremental detail around California. That was particularly helpful. And I noted the intra-quarter commentary, the January through March, which I really appreciated, Billy. I was wondering whether you’d be willing to expand on any of that intra-quarter commentary. How did Marlboro share trends progress through the first quarter in California, if you wouldn’t mind commenting on that? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I mean certainly, you saw that overall for the quarter, Marlboro was up in share. It’s telling that the consumer continues to choose Marlboro as the brand of choice. I think when you see that, it’s in line with some of the previous studies where consumers when menthol is banned, and they no longer have access tend to go to the non-menthol states. And I think that’s what you’re seeing with Marlboro and the strength of in California for the quarter.
Vivien Azer:
Understood. That’s helpful. Thank you. And I think encouraging to hear that you guys are going to be introducing Marlboro, I believe you said it was Black Gold pack. So, do you have a targeted ASP or a price gap relative to mainline Marlboro in mind, recognizing, of course, it will vary by geography?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it will certainly vary by geography. I think if you think of it being in line with other black packings that are in the black family that are in the marketplace, depending on the locale and the pricing in that locale.
Vivien Azer:
Perfect. And my last quick one. The call out about kind of some of the category dynamics relative to ‘09 and ‘01, make sense. I mean, it seems like in terms of premium share of segment, it’s basically where we were in ‘09. But I think one of the nuances of course is that in both of those prior periods, not only were their macroeconomic heads for the consumer, they were also compounded by the introduction of disruptive federal excise tax increases. So, how do you think about that, recognizing maybe this macroeconomic backdrop is incredibly nuanced because of COVID comps, but there’s not disruptive excise tax increases happening right now?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I appreciate your question, Vivien. I think what you’re seeing though is the exacerbation of cumulative high inflation, that’s put the consumer under pressure. They had been subsidized by the government to a large extent since the pandemic, and I appreciate you raising that. And you saw when they had that subsidy that Marlboro actually benefited from it. The consumer -- it’s still the aspirational brand in the cigarette category. That’s why we’re making what we feel like the appropriate adjustments headed into May for those pockets of areas where we see the consumer under pressure, and we’ll continue to monitor and make adjustments as appropriate.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question will come from Andrei Condrea with UBS. Your line is now open. We are hearing no response from the line. We will go to our next question. Our next question will come from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
So given the elevated rate of cigarette volume declines, do you believe that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to drive PM USA revenue growth through pricing in excess of volumes? It seems that higher pricing creates a virtuous cycle, whereby it drives trade down and market share pressure. And with the exception of 2020, which was clearly an unprecedented time, PM USA top line hasn’t grown since 2017. So, can you talk about how you’re thinking about driving top line growth in PM USA and if you think it’s possible?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Vivien, I think I would really point you to price elasticity. And when you think about price elasticity, that’s the nature of a negative 0.35, is that for percent that you increase price, you expect that 0.35 impact on volume. So it’s much, much lower than other industry categories in the CPG space. You can see in the decomposition we try to break down what’s taking place in the cigarette category. You see secular declines pretty steady. The big factor is macroeconomic that swings around. I think if you go back in history, you’ll see macroeconomic, the conditions that the consumer is under will swing it up or down. You can recall in 2015, I think you were asking us, did we expect volume to stay flat for a period of time? These are natural fluctuations that take place as the consumer experiences their economic conditions differently, sometimes under pressure and sometimes they have a one call. So it’s natural. We’ll continue to monitor and make the adjustments that we feel appropriate. I mentioned in earlier answers some of the adjustments we’re making going into May, down at the local level where we see different conditions for consumers versus just a homogeneous, if you will, condition of the consumer across the entire U.S. That’s some of the benefit of the tools and the analytics team that we have is we can make those adjustments down at the granular level.
Pamela Kaufman:
Okay. And then just on your -- what you’re seeing in the competitive landscape, you pointed out how branded players are placing their branded discount at these discount levels. Given the growth in the deep discount segment, would you reconsider your strategy on L&M? And how are you thinking about participation within that segment?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I appreciate it, Pamela. Certainly, we’re going to participate, but we’re premium focused. I would remind you that the strategy hasn’t changed in the cigarette space for us. It’s maximize profitability over the long term while making appropriate investments in Marlboro and into the growth areas. You may have heard in my previous answer, it’s not something that is new to the cigarette space. I pointed to a couple of time periods where we saw similar things. You see as the economic conditions for the consumer change through time, it tends to revert back on a historical perspective. So again, we want to be there for our consumers. It’s really about keeping the consumer engaged with Marlboro, whether they want to stay with Marlboro long term or whether we put them on the journey to the smoke-free products in our portfolio. And so, it’s really about continuing to engage with the consumer through time.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Andrei Condrea with UBS.
Andrei Condrea:
I have two. The first one is just on the California menthol ban because obviously, this isn’t the first flavor than we’ve seen in the U.S. on a state level. But if you were to just -- net-net, the impact you’ve seen in California versus other neighboring states, could you hazard a guess as to the impact on the total U.S. level just in terms of the haircut?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I’d say what we tried to show you was what we see thus far. I think it’s too early to declare, oh, this is the total impact to the U.S. I think what we were trying to highlight is when legislation passes with the purpose of the law, they really need to give heavy consideration into how they’re going to enforce that. And based on the comments we provided to the FDA with their proposed menthol ban and some of the consequences, the unintended consequences of that we’re seeing play out in California. As far as your question about what’s the net impact, I think it’s too early to tell to see how that plays out.
Andrei Condrea:
No, that’s fair. Thank you. And my second one is it’s a bit more long term. Thinking about your international expansion with your heated tobacco capsules, but most of your nicotine pouches, whether it’s on! PLUS or on!. Are you seeing any feedback for the time being on your current on! pilots, because I know you’ve got one going on in London. I’m just wondering if you will take rather the foot off the pedal until you get on! PLUS online?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I appreciate your question. I think when you think about it, it’s early on in the international space, it’s really about learning in the space with the consumer receiving their feedback. We’re certainly excited to be able to bring on! PLUS to the international market. We think it will resonate well with the consumer, but more to come on that.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question will come from Matt Smith with Stifel.
Matt Smith:
Just two questions for me. The first is Marlboro’s share performance has been fairly resilient despite the robust price realization. Could you discuss the mix of volume within the Marlboro family? Are you seeing an acceleration in consumers down-trading within Marlboro that would have otherwise moved to discount brands?
Billy Gifford:
Nothing that I would point out as trend break. You always have consumers moving around. And that’s really -- goes back to what I was referring to as far as advanced analytics. Depending on the situation of the consumer in a locality, they’re going to face different pressures than other parts of the U.S. And so you’ll see fluctuations at the local level around the U.S. and sometimes they’re in sync with each other and sometimes they’re counter to each other as far as what way the consumer is moving and what they’re feeling. I think overall, though, the takeaway right now is with the adjustments that we’re making to our promotional spend in some locales, we’re seeing a more widespread of the consumer being under economic pressure. And I highlighted some of the reasons we believe that it’s occurring, and we want to keep the consumer engaged with Marlboro.
Matt Smith:
And you mentioned the introduction of Marlboro Black Gold Pack. Are you positioning this offering to regain some of the adult smokers that traded down into discount and bring them back to the Marlboro family or more to keep Marlboro smokers within the family?
Billy Gifford:
We know that the consumer aspires to be Marlboro. You heard my comments earlier about in the pandemic when they had extra discretionary income, Marlboro share actually went up. So it shows that Marlboro is an aspirational brand in that category. And so, it’s to do both. If consumers had felt the need to trade out because they were under economic pressure, it gives them a space within the Marlboro franchise where they can reengage or if a consumer comes under pressure, it gives them a space to continue to engage with Marlboro. So, it’s really about the engagement with the consumers that want to choose Marlboro as their brand.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time we will open the lines for media. Our next question will come from Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal. Your line is now open.
Jennifer Maloney:
Hi. I wonder if you could explain to me what you think is going on in California with respect to the increase in menthol share to 40%. So I’m trying to like imagine what’s actually playing out in stores. Is it like consumers are finding retailers who still have menthol cigarettes on the shelves and then they’re stocking up a lot because they think that it might not be available soon, or what do you think is going on there?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I appreciate the question. I said 40% that was by error. It was 4% in California. So I apologize for that. But to answer your question directly, I think what we’re seeing take place is a number of the unintended consequences that we highlighted to the FDA and our comments on menthol ban that they proposed. I think what you’re seeing take place is to -- the purpose of the law had a purpose. And what we’re seeing is the lack of enforcement and some of the ways that product is in the marketplace is counter to what the purpose of the law was. And so, enforcement and the thought process behind how it’s going to be enforced is extremely important to really achieve the purpose of the law. So, some of the things we highlighted for you, Jennifer, were we’re seeing some of the consumers self mentholating whether that be with menthol cards and menthol drops. We are seeing menthol still in stores in California. And then, we saw in some of the other spaces a number of flavored products just renamed. And so, the enforcement is necessary, if they want to achieve the purpose of the law.
Jennifer Maloney:
Overall in California are cigarette volumes down more than you would normally expect with any absence of a menthol ban?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. You saw what we tried to do is in our metrics page, what we tried to do is from an industry standpoint, if you think about Q1 of 2023 to Q1 of 2022, in California, they were down 18.8% and for the rest -- if you think about a total U.S. standpoint, down 8.9%. So you can see that -- I’m sorry.
Jennifer Maloney:
No, go ahead.
Billy Gifford:
So you can see that even on a sequential basis, again, California down 11.1%, total U.S. down 6.1%. So, it certainly had an impact on shipments in California. We also highlighted some of the cross-border dynamics.
Jennifer Maloney:
Right. So, you highlighted Nevada, and I wonder is there -- can you quantify the uptick in volumes in all of the bordering states that might -- that might mitigate somewhat the decline in shipment volumes in California?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Again, I think it’s too early to say. We try to get to a net impact of California and netting out the positives. What we try to show is, certainly, we see what we think is an indication of cross-border in Nevada, using that as an example of menthol share. Its representation in Nevada is higher than it has been over the past four years.
Operator:
Thank you. This appears to be no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mac Livingston for closing remarks.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks again for everybody for joining us. Please contact the Investor Relations team if you have any further questions. Thanks, and have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today’s call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria’s management and the question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for the Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Todd. Good morning. And thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria’s CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria’s fourth quarter and full year business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility report are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2021. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria’s Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today’s remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Mac. Good morning. And thank you for joining us. It was an exciting year for Altria as our businesses delivered strong financial performance, and we continued to strategically invest toward our vision. We grew our adjusted diluted earnings per share by 5%, and our tobacco businesses remained resilient and successfully executed their strategies. We also returned significant cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Last year, we returned more than $8.4 billion to shareholders, outpacing our record returns from 2021 and representing the largest single year cash return since 2002. Our vision guided our actions, and we believe we made meaningful progress on our journey toward moving beyond smoking. Our teams took several steps forward during the year, including accelerating the growth of on! nicotine pouches, creating long-term optionality for our inhalable smoke-free product portfolio, enhancing our digital consumer engagement and continuing to advocate for tobacco harm reduction. Helix grew on! reported shipment volume to 82.5 million cans during its first full year of unconstrained manufacturing capacity, an increase of more than 70% versus the prior year. At retail, on! share momentum continued in the fourth quarter as the brand reached 5.9% of the total oral tobacco category and 24% of the nicotine pouch category. This impressive performance was driven by continued increases in brand awareness and adoption by smokers and dippers. Additionally, we believe Helix effectively managed on! promotional spend as the year progressed and reduced on! promotional spend per can by approximately 15% during the second half of the year compared to the first half. In oral tobacco product development, we are excited to announce we have finalized a new product design, which will provide tobacco consumers more smoke-free options within our portfolio. We also began regulatory preparations for the product, and we are encouraged by the initial research results and the response we have received from dippers and nicotine pouch users. We look forward to sharing more details and unveiling this innovative product at our Investor Day next month. Turning to our inhalable smoke-free portfolio. We created long-term optionality in the heated tobacco and e-vapor spaces. Internally, we have not yet finalized the design of our heated tobacco capsule product, but our teams continue to make progress. The consumer remains the focal point of our innovation system and our teams are tailoring the product to appeal to smokers who have not yet found a satisfying alternative to cigarettes. We also look forward to unveiling this exciting new product at our Investor Day next month as well. And in October, we announced a strategic partnership with JT Group, including a joint venture for the U.S. commercialization of heated tobacco stick products. We’re encouraged by the initial collaboration between our teams and the pace at which they are operating. Horizon is optimizing team for the U.S. market and plans to begin regulatory preparations later this year. We’re excited about the opportunity and are working diligently to bring Ploom to smokers in the U.S. In e-vapor, we previously announced we elected to be released from the noncompete obligations related to our JUUL investment. We retain our economic stake in JUUL. E-vapor remains the largest smoke-free category in the U.S. and the most successful category in transitioning U.S. smokers away from cigarettes. We believe the category can play an important role in harm reduction, and we’re continuing to evaluate all options to best compete in the category. Next, let’s discuss the progress we made to enhance our digital consumer engagement. We launched a new digital trade program last spring, and we believe this program enhances our ongoing commitment to responsible retail. The program includes multiple participation options for retailers. For those participating at the highest level we introduced incentives for retailers to include age and identity verification solutions in their digital platforms. And once the consumer is verified, retailers can then provide offers and messaging from our brands within the retailer’s app. I’m excited to share that we implemented these solutions in more than 33,000 stores, exceeding the goal we outlined last year at CAGNY. Currently, consumers can view offers from our smokeable and more smokeless tobacco brands. But going forward, we expect to expand the program to include on! and other smoke-free brands. As we continue to broaden our digital reach, data will help us better understand each smoker’s journey and help them successfully transition to other smoke-free alternatives in our portfolio. Moving to the regulatory environment. We remain optimistic about the future of harm reduction in the U.S. We believe we have an unprecedented opportunity to lead the way in shifting millions of smokers to smoke-free alternatives, if we follow the science and foster innovation with the support of reasonable regulation. In December, the Reagan-Udall Foundation published its operational evaluation of the FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products. We were among the stakeholders who provided input into this evaluation. Among its recommendation, the report urges the FDA to clearly define product pathways and accelerate PMTA decision-making, take enforcement actions against manufacturers and products in violation of the law and address the need for risk communications to tobacco consumers. We agree these are important opportunities and believe that the FDA should direct its focus toward implementing a framework to advance harm reduction, rather than focusing on prohibition policies that we believe will further expand the illicit market and create other unintended consequences. Let’s now move to the operating environment. We estimate that total equivalized tobacco volumes declined 6% for the year and 1.7% over the past five years on a compounded annual basis. Combustible volumes declined by an estimated 7.8% last year as smokers faced increasing economic challenges. We are encouraged that smoke-free volumes were stable compared to the prior year at 3.8 billion equivalized units and now represent an estimated 26% of the total tobacco space. E-vapor has been a major contributor to the growth of smoke-free products over the five-year period. Although volumes declined by an estimated 1% year-over-year amid considerable regulatory uncertainty such as the FDA from denial order and subsequent temporary stay on JUUL products, which caused market disruptions for both consumers and retailers. In oral tobacco, volumes grew by an estimated 1.5%, driven by the continued adoption of all nicotine pouches. Turning to our financial outlook. Our plans for 2023 include a continuation of our strategy to balance earnings growth and shareholder returns with strategic investments towards our vision. For 2023, our planned investment areas include
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks, Billy. We were very fortunate to have Leo’s 12 years of service at Altria and our thoughts remain with the Kiely family. Moving to our results. Our tobacco businesses generated strong financial performance again this year and were responsive to changes in a dynamic external environment. In the fourth quarter, the smokeable products segment grew its adjusted operating companies income by 4% and expanded its adjusted OCI margins to 58.4%. The segment also reported robust net price realization of 13.5%. As a reminder, manufacturer price realization does not reflect retail price changes for smokers. For example, Marlboro net retail pack price increased 6.4% in the fourth quarter compared to last year. We continue to successfully execute against our strategy in the smokeable segment, maximizing profitability while balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of smoke-free products. For the full year, smokeable segment adjusted OCI grew 2.9% to $10.7 billion, and adjusted OCI margins expanded by 1.4 percentage points to 59%. In smokeable segment net price realization for the year was 11.1%. In addition, over the past five years, the smokeable segment has grown adjusted OCI by $2.2 billion, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 4.7%. Over the same time period, adjusted OCI margins have expanded from 51% to 59%, an impressive increase of 8 percentage points. Turning to volumes. Our smokeable products segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 12.1% in the fourth quarter and 9.7% for the full year. When adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements, domestic cigarette volumes for the fourth quarter and full year declined by an estimated 11% and 9.5%, respectively. At the industry level, when adjusted for trade inventory movements, calendar differences and other factors, we estimate that adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by 9% in the fourth quarter and by 8% for the full year. Next, let’s discuss retail share performance. Full year retail share for the industry discount segment increased 1.4 share points. We believe these results were driven by an increased pressure on smokers’ disposable income and increased competitive activity, including multiple branded discount offerings priced at deep discount levels. Marlboro retail share declined by 0.4 for the full year. Most of the full year share losses were attributable to the value options within the Marlboro brand family, such as Special Select and Marlboro 72s as some price-sensitive consumers continue to seek additional price relief. Meanwhile, the brand’s mainline non-menthol offerings, including the iconic red and gold pack varieties were resilient and performed well for the year. Marlboro’s share of the premium segment grew to 58.2% for the full year. Marlboro has performed better than many other premium brands over the last several years. In fact, over the past three years, Marlboro grew its share of premium by 1 full share point. We are encouraged by Marlboro’s resilient performance as the brand celebrates 50 years of leadership in the cigarette category. In cigars, reported cigar shipment volume decreased 4% for the full year. While Black & Mild continued to maintain its leadership in a profitable machine-made tip cigar segment. Next, we will move to the oral tobacco products segment. Full year segment adjusted OCI and adjusted OCI margins contracted as we continued to invest behind on!. Total segment reported shipment volume declined 2.4% for the year as growth in on! volume, which more than offset by lower reported MSP volumes. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences, we estimate that full year total oral tobacco segment volumes declined by an estimated 2%. Full year oral tobacco products segment retail share declined 1.3 percentage points as declines in MST were partially offset by the continued growth of on!. Within the traditional smokeless category of MST and snus products, Copenhagen’s share performance has been stable over the last three years, declining only 0.3 from 2019, whereas the second largest traditional smokeless brand has ceded 1.6 share points. Overall, we continue to be encouraged by the performance of our oral tobacco products as on! grew volume and share in a competitive category and Copenhagen remained the category leader. Turning to our investment in ABI. We recorded $571 million of adjusted equity earnings for the full year, down 10.6% versus 2021. We continue to view the ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal remains to maximize the long-term value of the investment for our shareholders. In our all other operating category, we have completed our wind-down of Philip Morris Capital Corporation and no finance assets remain. I would like to thank the many PMCC employees who contributed to its success over the years and to the other Altria employees who helped complete a successful wind-down. Finally, we continue to effectively manage our balance sheet while generating strong financial performance and returning significant cash to shareholders. These results were driven by our tobacco businesses that continue to be highly cash generative. Our year-end credit metrics remain strong. Our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.1 times, down 0.4 over the past three years, and our weighted average coupon was 4%, a decrease of 0.2 over the past three years. We also expect to retire approximately $1.3 billion of notes coming due later this month with available cash. In addition, we returned more than $8.4 billion in cash to shareholders last year through dividends and share repurchases. These record cash returns included paying $6.6 billion in dividends and raising the dividend for the 57 time in 53 years. We also repurchased more than 38 million shares during the year, totaling $1.8 billion, which completed our previously authorized program. Earlier this week, our Board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of 2023. I’ll now turn it back to Billy to conclude our remarks.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Sal. While the calls are being compiled, I’ll remind you that today’s earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We’ve also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. As we mentioned during the call, we have exciting topics to discuss at our Investor Day next month. We look forward to having a fulsome conversation about our smoke-free future and we are excited to share more about our journey toward moving beyond smoking. Todd, we’ll now transition to the Q&A period.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Vivien Azer with Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
So, I just wanted to start with the industry volume backdrop. I recognize you guys have kind of suspended the historical practice of offering industry guidance, and that makes good sense to me. But just hoping to get some color on how you’re thinking about the potential impact of the menthol ban in California if you think that’s an incremental headwind for the year. Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. Yes, I think it’s a little early to say exactly what that headwind will be, Vivien. Certainly, it will be a headwind from the State of California having banned it. It went into effect, you remember in December. So, we’ll see how that proceeds. But yes, I would say that would be a headwind as we enter 2023.
Vivien Azer:
Fantastic. Thanks for that. And then just pivoting to the oral tobacco segment, encouraging to hear some rationalization on the on! promo having fallen 15% in two half ‘22. Can you offer a little color on where that positions on! relative to the competitive set?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. We think it’s -- it actually -- we were very pleased with the results we -- as you mentioned, we reduced it 15% first half to second half and it continued its momentum and grew share. We think it’s a growing category, Vivien, and that the entire segment is growing, and we want to participate in that growth. So, we’re continuing to invest behind it. And as we move forward, I think you see the benefit of data analytics. And then, in the future, the application of what most people refer to as revenue growth management that we’ve seen success in traditional smokeless as well as cigarettes. So, that’s what you can expect from us as we move forward.
Vivien Azer:
Perfect. And just one last one for you, Sal, please, I recognize it’s premature for us to start modeling royalties from the IP litigation with British American Tobacco because there’s certainly an appeals process. But if you could just contextualize how we should be thinking about that incremental revenue stream as litigation draws to a conclusion, please? Thank you.
Sal Mancuso:
Yes, sure. Vivien, you’re right, there is an appeals process. We developed our guidance. We have not considered the royalty, any potential royalties in that guidance. But, as you know, with any year, you put plans in place and there are always puts and takes. So, I think it’s early to really think about how you might model that. Let’s see how the appeals process plays out.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
How would you characterize the current state of your consumer? And this builds on Vivien’s question, but just wanted to hear how you’re thinking about the puts and takes to figure out volumes in ‘23? Volume declines were clearly very elevated in ‘22. So, do you expect a more normalized year of mid-single-digit volume declines given easier comparisons and moderating gas prices?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Vivien, I know you’re looking for -- I’m sorry, Pamela, you’re looking for guidance on upcoming volume. Let’s talk about the headwinds and tailwinds as we progress through the year. I’ll talk about the consumer first because that’s the most important when you think about volume. I think the consumer remains under pressure. We tried to highlight that it was the compounding of the inflation’s impact as we progressed through 2022. I think you’ve heard as many predictions as I have had soft landing, no deep recession. So, I think even the experts from an economist standpoint are all over the board. We feel good about the guidance that we put out. We feel good about where the consumer is, but we want the adaptability and the flexibility to be able to move with the consumer needs. So I think the consumer will remain under pressure until we see some relief, if you will, from inflationary pressures in the marketplace. Gas prices is just one aspect. That’s -- we certainly have seen a decline, but nowhere near the lows we were seeing as we were pre-pandemic levels. So, gas prices can move around depending on China reopening and things of that nature. So, we’ll see where that goes. I think when you think about volumes, it’s specifically combustible volume. It’s important to remember that what we’re looking at is how the consumer is impacted. Tobacco, the industry is not immune to macroeconomic environment. It’s just less impacted than other industry categories. And so, from that standpoint, historically, what we’ve seen, Pamela, is that as the consumer is experiencing this rapid change in their economic condition, whether up or down, they make changes in their purchasing behavior and then it becomes more comfortable to them through time and they adjust various factors in their purchasing basket. So, it remains to be seen. We’ll see how the macroeconomic shapes up. But I would say that’s the biggest thing and how that macroeconomic impacts purchasing behavior.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thanks. That’s helpful. And my other question is just on your 2023 earnings guidance, which reflects a slightly lower growth rate compared to your 4% to 7% guidance over the last several years. So, can you talk about the puts and takes influencing the outlook for ‘23? And how much incremental investment does this reflect behind reduced risk? And are there any other discrete factors contributing to the slight shift in the growth rate?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think, the last comment you made, I would say there’s a slight shift. We’re very excited about the guidance we put out. I think when you think about it, it’s really the uncertainty around the macroeconomic environment was the biggest impact to the overall guidance. And you’ve mentioned it and you asked about that earlier. It’s where does the macroeconomic environment go through as we progress through 2023 and how does that specifically impact our tobacco consumer across all categories?
Operator:
Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
I had a question about your pricing. Just thinking about the strength in your net price realization and smokeables over the past several quarters, it’s been so darn robust. So I just wanted to hear from you how sustainable you think this is, especially in considering, I guess, the pressure on the consumer and some of the other things you called out?
Billy Gifford:
Sure, Bonnie. And I’ll be careful not to talk about future price increases. But the way we think about pricing, as you know, it’s an important part of the algorithm when you’re in a declining category. Remember, our strategy in that category is, maximize profitability over the long term while making appropriate investments in Marlboro in the growth areas. So we see that as the engine that does that. When you think about pricing, I think it’s important to really focusing on what Sal mentioned in his remarks. You see high price realization, but at retail to the consumer from a consumer-facing, Marlboro on average went up about -- just shy of 6.5%, 6.4%. So, the price increase to the consumer is much lower than what you see in the price realization. And we mentioned before price realization is really two components for us. It’s list price, as you would expect, across the industry, but it’s also the implementation of RGM. And so, with that price realization and usually Bonnie, you or one of the other analysts will ask us about price gap, and it’s at 41%. I think it’s important to remember, as we get the data and really that data -- that’s somewhat impersonal. It’s consumer purchasing behavior through time. As we analyze that, what we’re able to do is the price gap varies locality to locality. It can vary store to store, and it can vary within -- even within the Marlboro franchise. You heard Sal talk about -- if you think about that overall price gap of 41%, you have the packing. So, take red and gold in the Marlboro franchise. If you look at total year 2022 to total year 2021, you can see it was very stable. Where we’re seeing it is in those packings or SKUs we have within Marlboro that are there for price-sensitive consumers to have a safe landing point. And so, we’ll continue to implement those tools. As far as how do we think about pricing going forward, we’ve shared with you whether it’s percent of discretionary income, a minutes work and when you benchmark the U.S. against other countries around the world, we’re still at the very low end of that.
Bonnie Herzog:
Yes. That’s actually super helpful. And that was going to be a question. I’m pleased you kind of walked through the gap. That’s useful context. Just switching gears, if I may, a question on your oral tobacco business. You highlighted how strong on! volume growth has been and -- but in the context of that, your total oral tobacco revenue and profit growth has been under pressure with a fair amount of margin contraction. So, you did sort of touch on this. But hoping maybe you could talk a little bit further about maybe your strategy for turning around the entire oral tobacco business. Any key initiatives that you could highlight for us, and maybe you’ll talk about this more in March?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. We will -- we’re certainly excited to be able to talk about it in March. You’re exactly right. Within the old tobacco space, if you think about that total space, you have traditional moist smokeless tobacco and you have novel oral pouches. Some of the margin contraction you’re seeing is just true mix, right, as consumers are moving from traditional moist smokeless tobacco and novel oral growing, you’re going to have some mix impacts in that overall margin. We highlighted for you the reductions we made in promotional spend per can, but still had the minimum share. I think the biggest thing that we’re excited is to be able to unveil the product that we have designed and have locked down and be able to show at Investor Day what that product is and some of the research related to that. So, more to come at Investor Day.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. Final one for me, just speaking of that. Any more color you could provide on your smoke-free vision today and maybe just how confident you are that you’re going to be able to deliver on your long-term strategy? I’m sure you’re going to talk through this in an investor meeting and I’m excited to hear about it, but any sneak preview as to what you’re most excited about?
Billy Gifford:
I won’t necessarily give you a sneak preview because I don’t want to get ahead of myself for Investor Day, we’d like to unveil it in total context and paint the solid picture for investors. So, I appreciate the question. I look forward to being to unveil that for you at Investor Day.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Callum Elliott with Bernstein.
Callum Elliott:
Billy, you spoke in the release and in your prepared remarks about making sort of "meaningful progress" on the smoke-free portfolio. And you also mentioned strategic investments in division. But at the same time, your CapEx guide is flat versus last year’s guidance. You’re continuing to deliver all algorithm EPS growth. And I think as you said, to Pam, that any slight reduction is more driven by the macro environment, which presumably also implies little or no incremental P&L investment in NGPs as well. So my question is, what are the strategic investments that you’re talking about? How meaningful are they? And where can we see them in the financial statements?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think it’s a great question. I appreciate it. I think when you think about where those investments show up, it’s important to remember, they’re not all incremental spend. They’re always puts and takes. They’re going to shift some of those -- the infrastructure that the combustible or traditional MST has bore the cost through history, and you’re going to shift that to the NGP space. We do have incremental investments around NGP product development, the regulatory preparations associated with that and the research associated with that. Here’s an example for you, Callum. If you think about like even the digital consumer engagement, that we’re implementing in traditional smokeable or combustible and MST, and we mentioned in the remarks being able to transition that over. So, you’ll see those costs will actually appear in the combustible and the smokeless before it appears in the NGP categories. So, there’s a lot going underneath the surface, if you will, from an investment standpoint. But there are always puts and takes. We’re trying to be wise with the investment but not restrict growing categories.
Callum Elliott:
I guess, the natural follow-up is, if I benchmark relative to your big competitors, both in the U.S. and internationally, the two biggest amongst them are spending literally billions of dollars a year. And my guess is instinctively, if you’re just talking about switching a portion of your cigarette spend, over into NGP, you’re not going to get anywhere close to that billions of dollars a year. And so, the question is, do you genuinely believe you can be successful if you’re spending so much less than those competitors? And then how?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, we do believe that we’re trying to really be driven by the consumer, learning from the global marketplace of products in the marketplace and use those as, if you will, a launch point for products and really trying to meet what the desires and needs of the consumers are in the marketplace that aren’t met by those existing products in the marketplace. And so, we feel like we can achieve the vision. We’ve highlighted for you guys that we really believe we can navigate strong returns to shareholders at the same time, making the appropriate investments in these growing categories. And we believe we can do that. I think you’ll continue to hear us talk about investments, and we’ll provide a lot more detail of some of the progress we’ve made at Investor Day.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Hi. So, I have three questions. So, first one to you, Billy. We will have a new competitor next year in the U.S. market with IQOS. And when you were distributing IQOS, then the volumes were much lesser than any of us had expected. So, what did you find were the challenges when U.S. consumers came to IQOS?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. It’s a great question. I appreciate you asking it, Gaurav. I think when you think about IQOS, it was really about the disciplined approach that we were taking to introduce in a brand-new category. The consumer in the U.S. was used to the e-vapor space. They had understood that. When you’re introducing a new category that requires some education on how to use the product and how to maintain the product that there is investment there that takes place. And we talked about the learnings we had as we went along the way. But I would say the biggest challenge is educating the consumer on the product and then meeting their desires. And I think there’s still unmet needs in the marketplace.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. The next question and perhaps to you, Sal, is around MSA payments next year and how we should factor in inflation? And if you could just help us understand because I think there is confusion that how does that 3% number work versus inflation, or is it the change of inflation that we should be looking at?
Sal Mancuso:
Gaurav, you are correct to point out that inflation is a factor when you think about MSA expense. A couple of points I’ll make. One is the high rate of inflation in 2022 has been accounted for and is already in the base. You are correct to point out that when you think about inflation related to MSA, there’s 3% floor. So, even if inflation were measured below 3%, there’d be a 3% increase in the MSA expense. And I’ll also remind you that inflation is measured at a point in time, December 31st current year to December 31st prior year. So, we have considered that when you think about 2023, there will be an elevated level of inflation. We have seen some receding of the rate of inflation, but still expect it to be elevated. So, we have considered that when we put together our guidance. And then finally, I’ll say, there are other factors besides inflation to consider when you think about MSA expense, including volume, shipment share and other such factors.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. And my last question is on share repurchases for next year, which at $1 billion or below what we thought and I think where most people were. And even though your EBITDA is growing -- you’re generating free cash flow after dividends, your leverage will anyway be down when you have the ABI stake. So, what mix you buy $2 billion of stock and not $1 billion?
Sal Mancuso:
Well, first, let me say, we’re very happy that the Board authorized a $1 billion share repurchase. And if you think about capital allocation, I think we have a history of taking a balanced approach. So, as you know -- as I noted in our opening remarks, we plan on paying back about $1.3 billion in notes coming due with available cash. We continue to pay a strong dividend as well as the $1 billion share repurchase. Gaurav, I really have nothing to report on the ABI asset. We continue to do the analysis that we do with all capital allocations. And currently, we believe the best thing for the shareholder over the long term is to hold the asset.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Chris Growe with Stifel.
Chris Growe:
I just had a quick question for you on Marlboro. You have to be very happy with the resilient performance of Marlboro. And obviously, a round at though discount and deep discount share is accelerating, which has seemed to provide some risk to the brand. I’m sure we’re not going to get your promotional program on this call. But I wonder if you could talk about how you see the brand performing in ‘23? And maybe more pointedly, have you increased promotions at a faster rate behind Marlboro to preserve that share where it’s doing so well there?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. They’re great questions, Chris. I think when you think about the resilience here at Marlboro, we’re very pleased with it. We’re pleased with how it’s positioned with the consumer. We are pleased with that. It’s still the aspirational brand within the cigarette space. I think when you think about your question on promotions, I would point to you that the high price realization actually shows that we’re able to be more effective and efficient on our Marlboro price promotion. I think it may be useful that -- I talked about Marlboro Red and Gold versus some of the price sensitive, but some of the tools that we have in place actually allow the precision. So, I’ll just walk through a quick example with three consumers. You have one consumer that’s purchasing premium brands and occasionally pops up and buys a discount brand. The other consumer is continuing to flip flopping between premium and discount. And the third consumer is a discount consumer that occasionally pops up and smokes a premium cigarette. When you think about those consumers, you’re going to treat those differently to make them more of a continuous premium brand smoker. That discount smoker, you may never be able to get them to convert to a premium because of the condition -- the economic condition that they’re in. So, as we move to personal value delivery as close as we can get to the consumer, we can tailor that across those three. And so that’s where I refer to the price that being at the national level. We’re doing this down at the local level and on our journey to move as close as we can get to the consumer. And so, that allows us to have Marlboro be resilient, address the consumers’ needs on a case-by-case basis, if we can get really close to the consumer and spend those resources accordingly to have a more consistent premium consumer through time.
Chris Growe:
Thanks for that and the color there. I appreciate that. I had one other follow-up, which would be, you do have two relatively unique kind of profit drags this year, with PMCC winding down, obviously, pensions moving around. Could you give some more color around -- or context around the run, how much that’s weighing on profitability this year?
Sal Mancuso:
Yes, Chris, I’ll be -- so let’s talk about pensions for a moment. If you think about pensions, obviously, there’s a P&L impact related to return on assets, changes in discount rate, but I would say the pension is really well funded. We have strong funding in that pension plan. It’s actually fully funded. So, we feel really good about that. And I would say the changes in pension expense I’ll remind you a noncash. We have successfully completed the wind-down of PMCC. So, you are correct in that we had earnings and cash flow last year, and this year we will not. And it is a year -- on a year-over-year basis is a slight lag. But remember, PMCC was part of our all other category. It was -- so we consider it fairly immaterial to the total earnings of Altria.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrei Condrea with UBS.
Andrei Condrea:
One for me, please, if you don’t mind. On your smokeless business, especially on what we’ve seen, the brand has been driven by strong discounting versus the main peer. Now, do you expect that to continue going forward or rather just closing the price gap between you and your main peer, even if you put your product -- promo spend per can is decreasing? Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. Thank you. I think when you think about it -- and this is not an excuse, it’s just facts. They had a first mover advantage. And when consumers -- to get consumers to have new brands in their consideration set, you have to induce trial. And that’s what we feel like we’re doing. I would say, from a consumer standpoint, it’s still very small compared to the total nicotine space. So, we’re going to spend while -- and invest while the overall category is growing, so we can participate in that growth. We mentioned previously, it was intuitive that the adult dipper would move to the product pretty quickly and that the adult cigarette consumer, you’re going to have to induce trial and that’s what we’re in the process of doing and are excited about the results thus far. I think through time, we did reduce the promotional spend per can. So, when you think about the price gap, if you will, the way you referred to it, to a competitive product in the marketplace, you’re going to invest while the category is growing, so you get these products in the consideration set. I talked about bringing some of the data analytics. I think you saw the benefit of that in this past year, but we have more to do there. And I think as we continue to progress and move forward, we feel good about it. I don’t want you to think, though, it’s all discount. It’s all priced off. That’s to induce trial. We really see it as a complete marketing ecosystem, if you will. And I hate to use the business term, but it’s surrounding the consumer and really meeting them where they’re at in their journey and then supporting in that journey to fully transition over, if you will, from cigarettes to this novel oral pouch. And so, that’s where we’re at. We feel good about the progress we’ve made thus far, but we certainly have to continue to drive awareness of the induce trial.
Andrei Condrea:
That’s very clear. Thank you. And yes, you are completely right. It has been fantastic progress for one. And if I could squeeze in just one more if you don’t mind, is that Marlboro has indeed done very well, and congratulations for that. But for the rest of your portfolio, as small as it is versus Marlboro, what steps are you taking to defend your market share versus pressure, both from peers on the very top end of the price and the bottom end? Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I would say if you look at growth, I would say the growth, if you look at competitors has really been at the very, very bottom end. Sal highlighted in his comments, there are a number of major manufacturers that have what we would consider branded discount priced in deep discount space. And so, when we look at total portfolios for some of those, we don’t see the benefit of having gone down to that low price tier. They may grow one brand to the detriment of another brand within the discount space. So, we want to participate in the discount category. We think it’s important, but we certainly don’t want to grow the discount category. And I think being premium focused where we feel the profitability and the high loyalty is in the cigarette space is an important place to play, and that’s where we’re focused. And Sal highlighted for you, our premium brands are growing. Total premium share of the premium space is growing through time on the backs of Marlboro. So, we’re pleased with that. We talk about the RGM tools, so I won’t repeat that. But being able to continue to get closer to a consumer-by-consumer basis and meet them where they’re at when they have needs is where we’re headed. And we’re excited about that progress.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.
Priya Ohri-Gupta:
So I really appreciate your commentary, Sal, around the intent to pay down your upcoming euro maturity later this month. I guess, as we take a step back, your euro-denominated debt has really sort of come down, I guess, partly driven by sort of the income that you’re receiving from the ABI stake given that that was sort of a natural hedge. Given where sort of your euro exposure stands now in terms of your debt portfolio, are you with where that is, or is there a need to continue to grow that euro exposure over time, either synthetically or through outright issuance in that market?
Sal Mancuso:
Yes. Priya, first, I’m going to start my answer by just reiterating, I really have nothing to report. And as it pertains to ABI, we continue to believe holding the asset is in the best interest -- long-term interest of our stakeholders. Second, I would tell you that while we have flexibility, it’s really a market-by-market analysis and a transaction-by-transaction analysis related to what markets we may or may not enter as we think about managing our debt going forward. So, that’s kind of how I would answer your question.
Operator:
At this time, we will open the Q&A to members of the media. [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our next question from Jennifer Maloney with The Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
My first question is about your JUUL valuation. I saw that you lowered the value of your stake to a price that values JUUL at $714 million. I wondered if you could explain the reasoning behind that valuation decrease. I was a little surprised because in the fourth quarter, JUUL resolved a large part of the litigation that it faced, which eliminated some of the uncertainty around the company. So, could you explain that valuation?
Sal Mancuso:
Sure. Good morning, Jennifer. First, I’ll remind you that we had taken an impairment related to litigation, and we really captured it within kind of our overall discount rate of the JUUL assets. So, we had accounted for that. But on a quarterly basis, the way we account for JUUL is, has us run an analysis of the fair market value of the investment. It’s not publicly traded, so we have to do an independent analysis. And from quarter-to-quarter, there’s going to be changes, and we’ve been pretty communicative about that. This quarter, it did -- our investment was reduced to $100 million and it’s really macro driven, it’s really macroeconomics and other factors that are considered when doing that analysis.
Jennifer Maloney:
So, things like inflation and possible recession?
Sal Mancuso:
Yes, macro market conditions, inflation, discount rates, things like interest rates, consumer dynamics, all of that goes into the analysis.
Billy Gifford:
You’ll note, Jennifer, when you build a discount rate, it starts with a risk-free rate. So certainly, the interest rate increases we’ve seen through time are going to continue to impact it as long as they’re still on an upward trajectory.
Jennifer Maloney:
Got it. My second question is a little more color around the consumer purchasing patterns right now. Can you talk a little bit more about what you’re seeing consumers doing? The volume has come down. So, is it because people are making fewer trips to the store to purchase cigarettes, or are they buying less each time? Can you sort of talk about what the actual pattern is?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. It’s a great question. What we’re seeing is as we see mobility increase, if you will, the U.S. is coming out of the COVID pandemic, we’re actually seeing a return to more frequent trips. Remember, our consumer pre-COVID would go either every day or every other day. I think what you’re seeing and what consumers tend to do when they get under economic pressure is they reduce their number of nicotine occasions in a day. So through time, that factors into their purchasing behavior. You see a little bit, and we highlighted that, which was the consumers that are under dire economic conditions at times will either switch out or trade out to a cheaper brand. We try to give them a safe landing place within the Marlboro franchise. But as far as a number of trips, we haven’t seen a reduction in the number of trips. It’s more about through time, reducing their nicotine occasions.
Jennifer Maloney:
I see. So, they’re smoking fewer cigarettes per day?
Billy Gifford:
That’s correct. So remember, as we came into the -- there’s no change in the overall trend, if you will, the long-term trend. As we went through COVID and there was less mobility, less societal pressures, we actually saw what we believe nicotine occasions go up. We see in -- when the economic conditions and the macroeconomic environment is greatly impacting the consumer, they will strict their nicotine occasions. As they become more comfortable with that they tend to return to a normal trend.
Operator:
Thank you. It appears at this time we have no further questions. I’ll turn the call back over to Mac Livingston, for any additional or closing remarks.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks to everyone for joining us. Please contact the Investor Relations team if you have further questions. Thanks, and have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today’s call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2022 Third Quarter and Nine Months Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a Q&A session [Operator Instructions]. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Katie. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's third quarter and first nine month business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2021. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with US generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our Web site at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This is an exciting moment on our journey towards moving beyond smoking. Our tobacco businesses remained resilient during the first nine months of the year, and we continue to reward shareholders while making investments in pursuit of our vision. We have deepened our consumer understanding, enhanced our capability and built the science to support smoker transition away from cigarettes. The tobacco harm reduction opportunity remains in front of us, and we continue to believe Altria is uniquely positioned to responsibly lead adult smokers to a smoke-free future. Our remarks this morning will focus on our progress to date and several exciting steps we have recently taken that we believe will accelerate our progress toward harm reduction. I will then turn it over to Sal, who will provide further details on our business and financial results. Let's begin with the heated tobacco category. Last week, we entered into an agreement with Philip Morris International, under which we will receive $2.7 billion in cash in exchange for assigning our exclusive US commercialization rights to the IQOS system at the end of April 2024. We believe this agreement provides us with fair compensation and greater flexibility to allocate resources toward moving beyond smoking. The heated tobacco category is still undeveloped in the US, and we believe we can lead in this space supported by our robust infrastructure and deep understanding of the US tobacco consumers. This morning, we announced the pursuit of a global smoke free partnership with JT Group. We signed a nonbinding memorandum of understanding with JT signifying the commitment of both parties towards further smoke free collaboration. JT is a leading international tobacco company committed to investing and growing and reduced risk products. We believe that together, Altria and JT can accelerate global harm reduction by collaborating on all the product development and global commercialization of smoke free products. We believe this potential collaboration can leverage the strengths and resources of both companies to transition more smokers away from cigarettes. As a first step in this partnership, we announced the formation of Horizon Innovations, a joint venture between Altria and JT for the US commercialization of heated tobacco stick or HTS products. We believe that HTS products can appeal to certain smokers as they provide a more familiar, tactile and sensorial experience to cigarettes. Under the terms of the JV, both parties will combine their scientific and regulatory expertise to jointly prepare PMTA filings for the latest version of the Ploom HTS products, which are not yet commercially available. The parties expect to file a PMTA in the first half of 2025. Upon authorization, Horizon will become the exclusive entity through which the parties market and commercialize stick products in the US. JTI will supply Ploom Heated Tobacco Stick devices and PM USA will manufacture Marlboro HTS consumables for US commercialization. The parties have agreed to commercialization milestones for Horizon, which include distribution requirements and minimal levels of cumulative marketing investment. Under the financial terms of the JV, PM USA has a 75% economic interest in Horizon with JTI having 25%. We're excited about the prospect of introducing the latest version of Ploom HTS products to US smokers. JT has demonstrated success innovating in the heated tobacco space. For example, JT launched Ploom X last year in Japan. And since its introduction, JT's doubled its share of the Japanese HTS segment. JT estimates that there are more than 1 million Ploom X consumers and according to their research, these consumers perceive Ploom X as a stylish, credible and unique brand. Consumers also describe the product as easy to use. We look forward to bringing the newest version of this exciting product to US smokers. We have discussed our increased focus and investment on an internal wholly owned heated tobacco product development. Our approach puts the consumer at the center of everything that we do. We receive more data on their preferences, purchasing patterns and friction points than we ever have. Additionally, we embedded our regulatory sciences team early in the process to align our product development efforts with FDA expectations. We believe these efforts are building a promising pipeline of wholly owned heated tobacco products and intellectual property consisting of heated tobacco capsule or HTC formats and new to market technologies. We believe capsule products can appeal to smokers who are open to novel, smoke free products but have not yet found a satisfying alternative to cigarettes. This audience includes the millions of US smokers who tried but ultimately rejected e-vapor products. We expect to finalize the design of our first capsule product by the end of this year, and we expect to follow PMTA by the end of 2024. We also expect to partner with JT to launch this product in an international test market using JT's sales and distribution network. We plan to share more on this product platform once the design is finalized. We believe moving beyond smoking in the US requires multiple FDA authorized products within a smoke free category to appeal to a diverse range of smokers and help them transition away from cigarettes. We believe that our pipeline of heated tobacco products and partnership with JT combined with the internal capabilities I described earlier, positions us well to increase adoption of smoke free products for the millions of smokers interested in these products. Let's now move to the e-vapor category. In the third quarter, total estimated e-vapor volumes declined by 4% versus a year ago and were flat sequentially. We believe the regulatory uncertainty related to JUUL caused market disruptions in the quarter, and we observed a reduction in JUUL purchases throughout the supply chain. We previously disclosed that we have exercised our option to be released from our noncompete obligations related to our JUUL investment. While we retain our 35% economic stake in JUUL, we're exploring all options to build an FDA authorized portfolio of e-vapor products that will help smokers transition away from cigarettes. For example, our teams are conducting consumer research, performing external scans and evaluating internal product development options. We're excited about the opportunity to increase our participation in the largest smoke free category in the US. Turning to oral tobacco. We remain encouraged by the growth of novel oral tobacco products, which grew its share of the total oral tobacco category for the 18th consecutive quarter. The category grew 6.5 share points year-over-year and now represents approximately 23% of the overall oral tobacco category. In the third quarter, on! reported shipment volume increased nearly 70% to 21 million cans. And on! retail share increased [3.10s] sequentially reaching 5.2 share points of the oral tobacco category in the third quarter. We believe these strong results were driven by increased brand awareness and adoption of on!, supported by continued equity and promotional investment. Building on its second quarter launch of the [carry on!] brand equity campaign, Helix recently introduced on! Rewards, a digital program that enables on! consumers to track the rewards balance online and redeem their points for coupons or other items. We're excited about on!'s continued momentum, increasing brand loyalty and the opportunity for future growth. Let's now turn to our view of the regulatory environment. We continue to believe that more should be done to advance harm reduction in the US, and that the FDA should move more deliberately toward creating a market of authorized smoke free products to help accelerate smoker transition away from cigarettes. The fact remains that today only a small percentage of e-vapor volume has been authorized and no oral nicotine pouch products have received market authorization. We believe collaboration and accountability from all stakeholders are required for this market transition to take place. We also believe that smoke free products should serve as an offering for smokers, not an on ramp for youth users. We remain encouraged that youth smoking rates in the US are at the lowest levels ever recorded. In fact, the latest Monitoring The Future study estimated that in 2021 the combined past 30 day smoking rates among 8th, 10th and 12th graders was 2.3%, a nearly 92% reduction from its 1997 peak. Additionally, data from the 2022 National Youth Tobacco Survey indicate that while e-vapor usage remains high among middle and high schoolers, the levels were significantly lower than the peak observed in 2019. Per the 2022 NYTS survey, 50% of the middle and high school current e-vapor users indicated that they most often use disposable e-cigarettes such as Puff Bar. Moving forward, we hope to see timely science and evidence based determinations on pending PMTA applications across all smoke free categories and further enforcement on noncompliant manufacturers. Our journey towards responsibly moving beyond smoking continues and we are optimistic that the actions we have taken to date have strengthened our portfolio into three major smoke free categories. We have built a compelling portfolio in the heated tobacco, enhanced our ability to compete in e-vapor and continue to strengthen on!'s position in the oral tobacco category. And we believe that we are able to maximize the value of these actions by leveraging our existing scale and infrastructure, such as our manufacturing centers and sales force. For example, our flagship Richmond manufacturing center began production of oral nicotine pouches in 2020. We now expect to add production of heated tobacco sticks for our new JV. Our sales and distribution system driven by our world class sales force gives us the ability to responsibly market products in over 200,000 stores. And we have decades of experience navigating dynamic US regulatory and political environments through the strength of our regulatory and government affairs organizations. These functions, together with our many other talented employees, gives me confidence that we can achieve our vision. Before I conclude, I'd like to thank Leo Kiely for his distinguished service to Altria's Board. Leo has served on the Board since 2011 and will retire at the completion of his term early next year. I'd also like to welcome Jase Hernandez to our Board of Directors effective November 1st. Jase brings a significant and deep understanding of the tobacco landscape following his years as an investment analyst covering the tobacco industry. Jase will serve on the finance and innovation committees. I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our results.
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks, Billy. I'd like to begin with a review of the macroeconomic backdrop and its impact on US tobacco consumers. In the third quarter, consumer discretionary income levels remained under pressure as higher gas prices and inflation persisted. However, we saw signs of continued brand loyalty in the tobacco space. In September, we conducted research to understand how tobacco consumers were managing their spending in several categories, including tobacco, alcohol, groceries and household items. Our research indicates that tobacco consumers continue to stick with their preferred tobacco brands at a higher rate compared to other categories when experiencing higher prices. These results were consistent with the results from our previous surveys. We believe Inflation and the rise in gas prices was partially offset for some consumers by a strong job market and wage growth. Overall, average wages increased 6.9% in the third quarter compared to an average 8.3% increase in CPI. And for some occupations, including the service industry, wage growth outpaced inflation. We continue to monitor tobacco consumer behaviors and changes in marketplace conditions. Despite these macroeconomic challenges, our core businesses performed extremely well in the third quarter, underpinned by the strength of our premium brands. Marlboro, Copenhagen and Black & Mild continued to grow profitably, and on!’s momentum and growth reflected strong positioning in the marketplace. This strong business performance, combined with fewer shares outstanding, drove Altria's adjusted diluted earnings per share results. Altria grew adjusted diluted EPS by 4.9% in the third quarter and by 4% in the first nine months. Turning to our business results. The smokable products segment continued to deliver on its strategy of maximizing profitability in combustibles while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of smoke-free products. The segment grew its adjusted operating company's income by 1.8% in the third quarter and by 2.6% in the first nine months. The smokeable products segment expanded its adjusted OCI margins to 58.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points for the third quarter and 1.2 percentage points for the first nine months. This performance was supported by strong net price realization of 10.2% in the third quarter and 10. 3% for the first nine months. I'll remind you that manufacturer price realization does not reflect retail price change for smokers. For example, Marlboro price per packet retail increased 6% in the third quarter compared to last year, which was below overall inflation for the quarter. Smokable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 9.2% in the third quarter and 9% for the first nine months, driven in part by the continued macroeconomic pressures I described. When adjusted for trade inventory movement and other factors, domestic cigarette volumes for the third quarter and first nine months declined by an estimated 10% and 9.5% respectively. At the industry level, we estimate that the adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by 8.8% in the third quarter and by 7.5% in the first nine months. We believe it's important to analyze cigarette volume trends over the longer term as decline rates in any one period can be influenced by various factors. In fact, Q3 year-to-date adjusted industry cigarette volumes have declined by an average of 4.5% over the past five years. In the third quarter, the total discount segment retail share of the cigarette category increased 1.6 percentage points versus the year ago period and [7.10s] sequentially, reflecting increased competitive activity and the challenging macroeconomic environment. We are encouraged that the discount segment share growth largely sourced from [Technical Difficulty] sequentially and [4.10s] versus the year ago period. We are pleased with Marlboro's performance and stability over the long term. In the first quarter of 2020, Marlboro's retail share was 42.5 percentage points. We believe that increased discretionary income driven in part by government stimulus checks and lower consumer mobility led to an increase in Marlboro's retail share throughout the pandemic. As consumer mobility returned to prepandemic levels and federal stimulus checks ended, Marlboro's share returned to its prepandemic levels and has remained stable through the subsequent quarters. In fact, since the first quarter of 2020, Marlboro has performed better than many of the other premium brands in the category. As a result, Marlboro continued to grow its share of the premium segment to 58.4%, an increase of [4.10s] sequentially and [7.10s] versus a year ago. We believe its performance over the long term is a testament to its positioning within the premium segment as the aspirational brand with strong consumer loyalty. In cigars, reported cigar shipment volume increased by 3.3% in the third quarter. Black & Mild continued its longstanding leadership in the profitable tipped cigar segment and Middleton continued to provide a strong contribution to smokable segment financial results. Turning to the oral tobacco products segment. Adjusted OCI grew 4.9% in the third quarter, but declined 3.4% for the first nine months, primarily due to higher investments behind on!. We're pleased with the strong overall margins for the segment and excited about on!'s performance in the marketplace. Total reported oral tobacco product segment volume increased by 1.3% for the third quarter and decreased 1.8% for the first nine months. When adjusted for trade inventory movement and calendar differences, segment volume decreased by an estimated 2% for the third quarter and 1.5% for the first nine months. Oral Tobacco Products segment retail share declined 1.5 percentage points as declines in MST were partially offset by the continued growth of on!. Turning to our investment in ABI. We recorded a noncash, pretax impairment charge of approximately $2.5 billion for the third quarter and first nine months of 2022. This impairment reflects the difference between the fair value and carrying value of our investment in ABI as of September 30th. We continue to believe that ABI's share price performance is not reflective of its underlying long term equity value and that ABI's share price will recover. However, we believe that it will take longer than previously expected as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors may continue to impact foreign exchange rates and ABI's financial results and share price performance in the near term. As we have previously shared, we view our ABI's stake as a financial investment and our goal is to maximize the long term value of the investment for our shareholders. We remain committed to creating long term shareholder value through the pursuit of our vision and our significant capital returns, which we demonstrated in the third quarter by paying approximately $1.6 billion in dividends and raising the dividend for the 57 time in 53 years and repurchasing 8.5 million shares totaling $368 million. We have approximately $375 million remaining under the currently authorized $3.5 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of this year. Our balance sheet remains strong and as of the end of the third quarter, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.1 times. In August, we retired $1.1 billion of notes that came due with available cash. As Billy stated, we will receive $2.7 billion as a part of the IQOS agreement. We received $1 billion upon entry into the agreement and will receive the remaining $1.7 billion plus interest by July of 2023. Our expected use of the cash proceeds may include investments in pursuit of our vision, debt repayment, share repurchases or general corporate purposes. Share repurchases depend on marketplace conditions and other factors and remains subject to the discretion of our Board of Directors. Turning to our financial outlook. We are narrowing our full year 2022 guidance and now expect to deliver adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.81 to $4.89. This range represents growth of 4.5% to 6% from a base of $4.61 in 2021. We believe this range allows us the flexibility to react to marketplace conditions. With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the polls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question will come from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
A lot going on with a lot of announcements. But I wanted to maybe touch on what you announced this morning related to your JV with JT. I just was hoping, Billy, maybe you could help us better understand the opportunity potential for HTC versus HTS formats and then the target consumers for each? And also, I just wanted to verify something. The time line with, I think, HTC is earlier and it's 100% owned and controlled by you. Is that correct?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. So there was a lot in that, Bonnie. So I'll take them in reverse order. The HTC is 100% owned by us. It is not part of the JV. I think when you think about HTS and HTC, you've got this huge group of adult smokers looking for products that satisfy and meet their desires and needs. And so you have some that want a familiar experience as close as they can get to cigarettes, and that's where we believe the HTS product fulfills for them. There are other consumers and a lot of -- as we've pointed out before, a lot of consumers went over and tried e-vapor, so they were willing to go with a more novel type product. And we believe the HTC fulfills those desires and needs. So we actually see room for both to be successful and it actually allows us to reach a larger group of consumers that are looking to switch.
Bonnie Herzog:
And then just a follow-up on that. How do we think about this potentially changing either your near or long term growth algorithm? And then I'm just thinking through in terms of future investments required. I assume there will be some other than the initial 250 million to develop and ultimately commercialize these products. Could you touch on that?
Billy Gifford:
I think -- look, we certainly are going to -- as we said previously, but remember, our overall strategy, even in the smokeable products category is to maximize our income through time but to make appropriate investments, both in Marlboro and balancing that with investments in the growth areas. So there are always puts and takes. I don't want you to think all of the investments that we make are completely incremental to the P&L. We’ve tried to leverage and we try to point out some of that in our remarks this morning. So for instance, the manufacturing center, where we expanded our production for on! in that facility. The heat sticks for the JV will be produced by the manufacturing center. So there you have the infrastructure in place. You have a strong talented group of employees that are familiar with running those machines. So you leverage some. So yes, there are investments and you have reallocation across the P&L, but it's not all incremental investment.
Bonnie Herzog:
And then just maybe my final question is related to your guidance, which you narrowed this morning. You narrowed it slightly, I guess, 20 bps at the midpoint. You stated just -- to give you more flexibility to react to marketplace conditions. So I just wanted to maybe hear from you what got a little bit worse or uncertain? Is it the pressures on the consumer, or is there something else that we should be mindful of?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I appreciate the question, Bonnie. I think you could think of most of that narrowing as the passage of time, right? We have more certainty because remember, we're on a quarter lag with ABI, and you saw them released results this morning. But certainly, it's no surprise that our consumers are under pressure and we want to maintain that flexibility, but nothing out of the ordinary that I would point out.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
I wanted to follow up on Bonnie's question and ask about how you're thinking about the evolution of the US tobacco market over the next five to 10 years? How do you think about the relative size of the e-vapor versus heat not burn categories over time? And now that you have greater flexibility to invest in e-vapor, given the noncompete termination with JUUL and the partnership with JT, how are you going to prioritize your investment between heat not burn and e-vapor?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it's a great question, Pamela. And I think it's important to remember as you step back, and that's why we tried to highlight in the remarks that the reduced harm in the US is really undeveloped. And the reason I say that is from an authorization standpoint, take the two that exists today, e-vapor and novel oral. A very low percentage has been authorized by the FDA in e-vapor, and we believe that's going to go through a period of transition as those authorizations come out and some make it and some get denied. When you move to the novel oral, really no authorizations have been received in that space. And so that, again, depending on how the regulatory body goes about assessing and authorizing those, there could be a bit of a transition there. And then in the heated tobacco space, it's really nonexistent. I think when you think about those three categories, we believe the extent of those three categories will really be shaped by three factors. So one, I mentioned, is the regulatory decisions that are taken in each of the individual categories. It will be legislative in tax policy, how does that develop through time related to the individual categories and then really through time is the innovation in the spaces that best address the consumer preferences based on what they desire. So that's really what's going to shape the size of the three individual categories. We believe those are the three categories that will grow through time as consumers continue to move away from cigarettes to the smoke free products. As far as prioritizing, we're going to prioritize based on where we see the consumer moving and how we see the consumer moving. It's going to be completely consumer driven, and that's why we're excited to be able to leverage the sales force to get the products in the right stores as well as the amount of data we receive and the insights that we can garner from that.
Pamela Kaufman:
My second question is on ABI. You previously expected the shares to recover and decided to hold on to your investment when your lockup expired. It seems that now you expect this recovery to take longer than expected. So how does this impact your thinking around the investment? And does this further extend your plans to hold on to the stake, or does it increase their willingness to sell it at a lower price?
Sal Mancuso:
The impairment of the ABI asset, the reduction in our carrying value is really accounting driven. When you think about whether an impairment is temporary or not, you have to look at timing of your expected recovery. As far as the ABI asset, as we stated, we view it as a financial investment. Our focus is to maximize the value for our shareholders. But share price value is one of many variables that go into that analysis. It's an analysis that we do on an ongoing basis, and we'll continue to focus on what's best for our stakeholders over the long term.
Pamela Kaufman:
And maybe if I could squeeze one more in. Can you just talk about what you plan to do with the proceeds from the IQOS termination agreement? And if there is any e-vapor assets that would be attractive to you to help accelerate your entry into the category?
Sal Mancuso:
We mentioned them in our opening remarks. I don't have a lot to add to that. I mean, obviously, the proceeds provide us with increased flexibility, which is always a good thing. So there's really nothing more to add. I mean we're going to continue to look at all capital allocations through the lens of what's best for our shareholders, be it investments in our long term vision, continuing to manage a strong balance sheet or provide further returns to our shareholders. But again, that's part of our broader capital allocation strategies.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Chris Growe with Stifel.
Chris Growe:
I had a question for you, a bit of a follow-on to the agreement with JT. Obviously, it's very encouraging to get you back into that category. Given the time line for development of your products and obviously, FDA review, do you have a reasonable time frame for launching the product in the US? And if I could ask related to that, you'll have this international capability in terms of launching a product. So should we expect that you'll be able to develop products and kind of test and learn internationally to refine those for an ultimate PMTA application in the US?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Chris, thanks for the question. And you're right. We are excited about the opportunities we have in front of us. I think when you think about the time line for launch, so what we tried to provide you is when we would anticipate be enable to file PMTA then it will be dependent on how long it takes the FDA to authorize those products. I believe through time, those authorizations will become more predictable and quicker whether that's the next product that they authorize or it takes a couple for them to get used to the new categories remains to be seen. I think when you think about the launch internationally, yes, we're excited about the potential there for being able to test products in the live market in the international realm. We're excited about the ability to -- whether it's in any of the new categories to be able to leverage that. But I don't want to get ahead of myself. We mentioned the memorandum of understanding about future collaboration and we'll share more when it’s appropriate to share.
Chris Growe:
And just to be clear on that, Billy, would it be -- given your time line for when you expect the PMTA and for the product you're developing, would it be reasonable to assume we'd see that like next year in international market being tested at least and then moving to an application in 2024 or I'm getting too far ahead of myself here?
Billy Gifford:
I think you're getting a little bit ahead of yourself. I think from an international launch, we tried to say, look, when we would anticipate getting it launch that into international market, maybe your question underlying that is why are you taking so long? And I think it really goes back to -- look, we want to be disciplined. We want to conduct preliminary studies to certify that we can consistently meet the high standards for product quality that we hold ourselves to as well as the constituent reductions. And so we're going to go about it in a thoughtful manner. But yes, we are excited to get it into an international market and look forward to.
Chris Growe:
And I had a question just in relation to your -- just part of your guidance this flexibility to react to current marketplace conditions. And as I look at your business today on the smokable side, in particular, you're gaining share in the premium segment. Obviously, premium is losing share, though, overall. So I guess as I think about where you need to invest, I would be curious, is it in the premium brands in the premium category to take back share from discount, or is it more on the discount side where you're losing share do you want to invest going forward?
Billy Gifford:
I understand your question, Chris. I really would look at the narrowing our guidance as the passage of time. Look, we wanted to make everybody aware that our consumers are under pressure just like consumers across all industry. And we like the flexibility. That's more of the range we had maintained for the establishment of the guidance. I wouldn't point out anything specific. We're very excited about the price realization we've been able to realize, being on track for our guidance for the total year and the stability that Marlboro has experienced in the marketplace. I mean when you look at prepandemic to post-pandemic, and Sal mentioned this in his comments. When you saw government stimulus and less mobility in the marketplace, we actually saw it as encouraging. We weren't attempting to gain share. We were performing the business like we normally do. It shows that Marlboro is still the aspirational brand in the cigarette space, and that's what we saw take place during the pandemic. And disposable income has got a little bit tighter and mobility is up affecting that as well, we see that we ceded some of that share back. But pre-pandemic to post-pandemic, call it, roughly flat maybe up a [10th] and we're extremely pleased with where we're at.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
So a few questions from me. So first is on the oral tobacco pricing this quarter, which was, I think, up 5.5%, and it was flat to manage, just 3% last year. And if I look at Copenhagen's pricing, based on your disclosure, it is still running at the same level of plus 7%. So does it mean that you are pulling back on on! promotions or you're increasing actually on!'s pricing now that on! is becoming a bigger part of your portfolio, and it has hit maybe some critical market share?
Billy Gifford:
Look, Gaurav, we're excited about what on!'s been able to perform, how it's been able to perform and grow in the marketplace. Certainly, with the learnings we had in the other two categories where we have the analytics and the RGM tools that we have in place, we certainly see the opportunity to be able to apply that into new spaces as we gain volume and market share. And so overall, I think from a standpoint of the strategy in the on! space, it's really to maximize profitability through the long term -- with the strength of Copenhagen while balancing investments with on!. And I think that's exactly what you see taking place in that space.
Gaurav Jain:
My second question is on the Logic MDO on menthol e-cigarettes focused and I appreciate it's not your product. But just broadly, like if FDA now goes ahead and starts denying menthol e-cigarettes. Would it make any sense to invest in US e-cigarettes right now because maybe all the menthol e-cigarettes get denied?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think it remains to be seen, and that's what we try to highlight for the size of each category. And you highlighted an important one that's in front of the entire industry in all of these spaces, is regulatory decisions. That will decide how large the individual categories can be. I would also highlight the other two. It's really legislative and tax policy, how does that mature through time, and then the last would be innovation. But I hear you and that's why we try to highlight those three factors that could ultimately decide the size of each of those categories relative to each other.
Gaurav Jain:
On the California flavor ban that could happen next quarter. How are you planning to approach that?
Billy Gifford:
So we've engaged with our government affairs team. We don't believe the science supports it from a standpoint, and we've highlighted that. And we've been pretty vocal with that even with the FDA as they looked at some of these things. We think those decisions are better based with the FDA, where it finds an evidence base. But when you think about the overall category in California, certainly, it could have an industry impact. But we, as a reminder, SKU non-menthol and cigarettes and we SKU non-flavored products in the more smokeless space. So again, I think it could have an impact to the industry, the science doesn't support it, but I just wanted to remind you of our positions from a SKU standpoint.
Gaurav Jain:
And if I could just squeeze the last one on CapEx, like you reduced the CapEx guidance slightly. Would you be able to help us understand why that happened?
Sal Mancuso:
Can you repeat that Gaurav?
Gaurav Jain:
The CapEx number, the CapEx guidance was reduced. So what are the factors driving that?
Sal Mancuso:
If you think about capital projects, Gaurav, the spending is not necessarily linear, right? The projects are moving along quite well. The year -- time has passed throughout the year. So we're three quarters through the year. So we just lowered our forecast for spending. So that's more timing. The projects remain on track. Of course, there are some delays in supply chain when you're ordering equipment, but nothing material. We've been able to manage that quite well. So it's not uncommon for fluctuations in capital forecast as the year progresses.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Vivien Azer with Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
So I also wanted to touch on heat not burn, please. I apologize, maybe it's just a lack of imagination on my part, Billy. But when you just guide the HTCs, the capsules, it reminds me of the original Ploom innovation that JT launched in 2016, 2017. Can you just expand on how that's different, if at all, because that didn't really resonate with consumers in Japan.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. And I don't want to get too far ahead of myself. We'll come forward with the actual product, and I know you'll be excited about it when we're able to bring it forward once we complete design. If you think about the stick, that's pretty evident because everybody’s seen that in the marketplace. If you think about the capsule, the tobacco is contained within a capsule. It's different than the technology you're familiar with the Ploom, but again, I don't want to get too far ahead of myself from a standpoint of describing the device before we're ready.
Vivien Azer:
But it is different in terms of the nicotine [indiscernible]?
Billy Gifford:
That is correct.
Vivien Azer:
I do look forward to seeing that, for sure. Maybe just pivoting to the smokeable segment, please. Understanding perfectly well that your objectives are really focused on profit growth. It's hard to ignore the fact that your price gap is now the highest it's been since 2009. And so I'm just curious how you think about operating leverage for that segment, modest market share declines are fine. You're right. Obviously, that on a three year basis, industry declines haven't gotten that much worse. But your two year stack is deteriorating on an industry adjusted basis. And so how do you think about operating leverage in that segment from a volume perspective?
Billy Gifford:
I think when you look at the price gap, I just want to remind you, Vivien, and I know you know this, but that 40% price gap that we disclosed is really a barometer for the national level. We put that out because that allows you all to have a barometer, but we manage it much lower than that. And I think you see as the introduction and execution against the data analytics and the revenue growth management most people refer to it as those tools that we have available allows us to manage the price gap at a much lower level. And so that is, I think, what you're seeing in the success of the Marlboro market share through time. And so we're extremely pleased with where we're at. We feel good about the performance of Marlboro and being able to expand the price gap and increase the profitability through time the way we've done.
Vivien Azer:
And that segues really nicely into my last question, which is on the performance of the discount category. Obviously, deep discount share gains are now reaccelerating. You've articulated, I think, very helpfully, the puts and takes in terms of the backdrop of the consumer. But just any updates on how you're thinking about kind of strategically positioning your discount brands against that backdrop?
Billy Gifford:
And you'll recall, Vivien, we're premium focused. We participate in a discount because it's important to our retailers to have a portfolio that services all of their customers that visit their stores, but we're premium focused. You know that we ceded share in L&M, we felt like we would see cede share in L&M as we increase profitability. But we're pleased with the increased profitability we've experienced on L&M, and with the willingness to cede some of that share to deep discount. You'll remember our consumers at the lower end of that socioeconomic status. Loyalty is extremely high over 90% for premium brands. And so you always have that group of consumers when they get under pressure are going to shop around and move around depending on what their individual situations are.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question will come from Carla Cacia with JPMorgan.
Oliver Brotman:
This is Oliver Brotman on for Carla. Just a couple from us. So with regards to the announcement made last week on the agreement reached with Philip Morris. Is there any risk to the remaining $1.7 billion that Philip Morris owed, could that value change between now and then?
Billy Gifford:
With that value, it was an exchange of 2.7. The only thing that would change the 1.7 is the interest that would accumulate through time, depending on when they made that payment. Exclusivity remains with us until the final payment's made.
Oliver Brotman:
And then just secondly on JUUL. While the noncompete is no longer in place and you're turning your focus to bearing options to build out the portfolio, you still retain that 35% stake. Is there a plan longer term what you would maybe do at that stake?
Billy Gifford:
Really no plan at this point. We hold the economic state. We'll see what their performance is in the marketplace, but we thought it was important at that point in time to get out of the noncompete to open up our flexibility in the e-vapor category.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.
Unidentified Analyst:
This is [Argus] in for Priya. One quick question. You have a euro debt maturity early next year. Do you need to have that euro exposure or could you be flexible in refinancing that in US dollars?
Sal Mancuso:
I don't want to get ahead of ourselves on that maturing debt. So how we retire that debt and the process we go through, we'll wait and see. Obviously, we'll do the necessary analytics from a market perspective, from a capital allocation perspective. To your question though, while we have flexibility on where we could issue debt, we do not necessarily need to have the euro exposure now.
Unidentified Analyst:
And one last one. What are your thoughts on the relative attractiveness of the US dollar market versus the European market in terms of swap rates?
Sal Mancuso:
Well, obviously, FX exchange rates are a factor that goes into that allocation. I don't want to necessarily predetermine what's more attractive. But for us what's important is to have flexibility in the marketplace. We are fortunate in that we have a strong balance sheet. We've got operating companies that do a tremendous job of converting income, the cash. So as debt comes due, we can refinance or we can think about other methods of retiring the debt. So for us, it's really the flexibility to determine how we want to handle that debt coming due but also with markets we may or may not want to enter. FX exchange is definitely part of that process though.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Callum Elliott with Bernstein.
Callum Elliott:
I'd love to ask you guys a little bit more about Horizon, if that's okay. I guess our sense is it feels like giving away a 25% economic share is a huge amount, given that candidly this is a poorly performing product, a weak number for brand globally without regulatory approval in the US. And so hoping you can just talk about the drivers behind why you entered this JV, how you arrived at a 75-25 economic split? It feels just to us and then based on the conversations we've had this morning to investors as well that this is going to be very difficult for this to be economically viable for you.
Billy Gifford:
We think about it a bit differently. I mean let me describe. You'll recall when we [indiscernible] across the nicotine space in the US, it greatly reduces the decline rates. So if you look over the past five years, decline is at about 1%. We think it's important to have a portfolio of products in each of these categories and across the categories that attract consumers to them from a standpoint of being able to participate in those categories, have strong products and brands across those categories, which will be a benefit to volume and attract a larger group of consumers to transition from cigarettes over to the smoke free space. I think it's important to remember that the JV that's in place is for a product that hasn't even been commercialized yet, as they continue to garner learnings and consumer insights and feedback. And so we're extremely excited and we think this is a foundation for future collaboration and potential exposure to international revenue as well.
Callum Elliott:
And I guess just one follow-up, unrelated. I wonder if I can get you to talk a little bit about cannabis as well. I think you obviously still have your stake in Cronos, your warrants are set to expire in a few months. Presumably, you're not likely to exercise and given the way out to the money. But more broadly, my question is how you're thinking about the cannabis category has changed over the past three and half years since you made that investment, and where does it sit on the list of capital allocation priorities today?
Billy Gifford:
I think when you think back, we highlighted when we made that investment in cannabis that it was going to be a long term investment. We still believe it has long term potential in the US. Certainly, with the current political environment, it doesn't feel imminent that anything will switch in the US. I think the President made an important first step in some departments, but it's a first step and it's a lot more to take place before the industry dynamics change in the US to be able to capitalize on that. So we still believe it has long term potential in the US, but certainly in the political environment, nothing is imminent.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Thank you. At this time, I will now turn the call back over to Billy Gifford for closing remarks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thank you, Katie. I'd like to conclude our remarks by going back to where I started. We are in an exciting period of Altria's history and have an unprecedented opportunity in moving beyond smoking. We expect that our actions will lead to a strengthened portfolio across the three major smoke free categories that will help smokers transition away from cigarettes. In heated tobacco, we believe we have taken a huge step forward with our new joint venture with JT and our internal product development efforts. We now have the ability to compete in the e-vapor category and are already assessing our options in this space. And we have demonstrated progress in the growing novel oral category with on!'s continued growth. I continue to be confident in my belief that we can achieve our vision and create long term value for our shareholders. Thank you for joining us, and have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you [Technical Difficulty].
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2022 Second Quarter and First Half Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Ashley. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's second quarter and first half business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2021. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Altria's tobacco businesses performed well in a challenging macroeconomic environment for the first half of the year. The smokeable products segment delivered solid operating company's income growth behind the resilience of Marlboro, and our moist smokeless tobacco brands continued to drive profitability. We also continue to make progress toward our vision through the investments we laid out in January, which included supporting the expansion of on!. We are encouraged by on!'s retail momentum and significant share growth since achieving unconstrained capacity last summer. We believe this is a pivotal point in the U.S. tobacco industry. The FDA has the opportunity to create a mature, regulated marketplace of smoke-free products that can successfully realize tobacco harm-reduction and improve the lives of millions of smokers. We share the FDA's goal, to transition smokers away from cigarettes, but we continue to believe that harm-reduction, not prohibition is the best path forward. My remarks this morning will focus on 3 topics
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks, Billy. Altria grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 2.4% in the second quarter and by 3.5% in the first half across the challenging macroeconomic environment that Billy described. The smokeable product segment continue to deliver on its strategy of maximizing profitability in combustibles while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of smoke-free products. The segment grew its adjusted operating company's income by 0.6% in the second quarter, and 2.9% first half. Adjusted OCI margins expanded by 0.7 percentage points to 59.1% for the second quarter and by 1.33 percentage points to 59.3% for the first half. This performance was supported by robust net price realization of 11.5% in the second quarter and 10.4% for the first half. I'll remind you that manufacturer price realization does not reflect retail price change for smokers. For example, Marlboro net retail pack price increased 5.6% in the second quarter compared to last year. Smokeable products segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 11.1% in the second quarter and 8.9% in the first half, primarily due to changes in consumer purchasing behavior as a result of increased gas prices and inflation. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and factors, second quarter and first half domestic cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 10% and 9%, respectively. At the industry level, we estimate that adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by 8.5% in the second quarter and 7.5% in the first half. As Billy mentioned Marlboro displayed resiliency during a period of continued uncertainty for consumers. In the second quarter, Marlboro's retail share of the cigarette category grew 1/10 sequentially to 42.7% while declining 4/10 versus the year ago period. Additionally, Marlboro grew its share within the premium segment to 58.1%, an increase of 3/10 sequentially and 5/10 versus a year ago. Moving to the total discount segment. Total share was flat sequentially even as gas prices rose significantly from the first to second quarter. Discount increased 1.3 percentage points year-over-year to 26.4% as we lapped the period when the discount segment contracted from smokers having higher disposable income. Additionally, we observed increased churn between the branded and deep discount segments as a result of a deep discount manufacturer's exit from the marketplace earlier this year. In cigars, reported cigar shipment volume decreased by 5% in the second quarter due to macroeconomic pressures on consumer, disposable income, trade inventory movements and other factors. However Middleton continue to provide a strong contribution to smokeable segment financial results. In the oral tobacco product segment, adjusted OCI and adjusted OCI margins contracted in the second quarter and first half due to several factors, including declines in MST volumes, increased investments behind on! and unfavorable mix. We remain pleased with the strong overall margins for the segment as we made progress with on! At the industry level, tobacco oral tobacco volume declined 0.5% over the past 6 months. We continue to observe steady growth from the oral nicotine pouch category, but this has been offset by declining MST volumes due to the challenging macroeconomic environment and its effect on consumer behavior, consumer movement to oral nicotine pouches and other factors. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased by 4.4% for the second quarter and by 3.2% for the first half. The segment's volume was -- volume decline was driven by declines in MST volumes, partially offset by the growth of on!. When adjusted for trade inventory movements, segment volume declined by an estimated 2.5% for the second quarter and 1% for the first half. The total oral tobacco product segment's retail share for the second quarter contracted 2/10 sequentially and 1 share point versus the prior year to 46.7%. Copenhagen is celebrating its 200th anniversary this year. We're extremely proud of Copenhagen's long history and the fantastic employees who have supported the brand over the years. To them, we say thank you. After 200 years, Copenhagen remains the number one dip brand because of your hard work, dedication and passion. To honor this impressive milestone, the team introduced Cop Rewards, the first and only national rewards program for an MST brand. Under the program, dippers can earn points by entering codes from their Copenhagen cans and can redeem them for coupons or rewards. We're excited about Cop Rewards and its potential contributions to Copenhagen's sustained leadership in MST. Turning to our investment in ABI. We recorded $124 million of adjusted equity earnings in the second quarter. This was an increase of approximately 9.7% from the year ago period and represent Altria's share of ABI's first quarter 2022 results. We committed to creating long-term shareholder value through the pursuit of our vision and our focus on significant capital returns. We demonstrated this commitment in the first half by acquiring intellectual property and other assets for a multi substrate heated capsule technology from Poda Paying approximately $3.3 billion in dividends and repurchasing 21.4 million shares, totaling $1.1 billion. We have approximately $750 million remaining under the currently authorized $3.5 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of this year. Our balance sheet remains strong. And as of the end of the second quarter, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.3x. In August, we expect to retire $1.1 billion of notes coming due with available cash. And lastly, our financial plans for the year remain on track and we reaffirm our guidance to deliver 2022 full year adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $4.79 to $4.93. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 4% to 7% from a $4.61 base in 2021. With that, we'll wrap up and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available all on altria.com We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel.
Chris Growe:
Billy, I have a question for you, and you made a good point about -- it's clear we're at a very pivotal moment for this category. I was hoping to get just a better perspective from you and how you're investing today to be able to internally develop RRP, reduced risk products. You've got some uncertainty around your positions in JUUL and IQOS, and there's risk. Those are no longer in your portfolio, certainly just a risk at this point. But I guess I just want to get a sense of what you're doing internally. And you talked about having a product already this -- at the end of this year. And then to what degree maybe M&A could play a bigger role in giving you a better position in RRPs going forward?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Chris. I think when you think about where we're investing, certainly, we invested in our innovation process. We have the internal development going on. And I've spoken previously about changing that innovation process so that it's laser-focused on the consumer. It monitors the marketplace. But I think before we were -- I would characterize it as almost chasing the market versus sitting side-by-side with the consumer. And so there's a lot of consumer interaction, almost to the point of co-developing with the consumer in those categories that we can develop in. To your point, we can't develop, per agreement with JUUL, in the e-vapor category. But it's something -- we continue to monitor the marketplace and understand consumer satisfaction with the various products in the marketplace. We monitor the entire globe as far as alternative products to both influence -- how we think about internal development, but looking for products that could be emerging in the other markets as well.
Chris Growe:
And so would M&A be an important contributor, do you think, going forward for Altria's position in this category?
Billy Gifford:
It certainly won't be off the table, Chris. But I think for the investments we're making in our internal development, we feel good about the pipeline of products that we have.
Chris Growe:
Okay. And just one other question in relation to pricing in the cigarette category. It's been larger than expected, and it's occurred sooner than I expected, at least this year. And I guess in this environment where there's obviously a more burdensome kind of macroeconomic factor that's weighing on your volume, are you seeing a greater shift to some of the lower-priced or more highly promoted Marlboro varieties? And do you see a need to have to increase promotional investments in light of the heavy pricing coming through in this environment?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Chris, it’s a good question and it's something we monitor. But I think when you look at the sequential performance of Marlboro, and even the discount category, you saw sequential stability. Marlboro actually grew 1/10 and the discount category stayed flat. So that were experienced first quarter to the second quarter. From a standpoint of the tools that we put in place with advanced analytics, we feel good about the position. Sal raised an important point. When you think about the impact to the consumer and you think about industry-wide, call it a 5% to 6% price increase, that's well below the inflation they're experiencing in other categories. And you saw the results and their remarks of the -- where we went to the consumer and talked about how they think about the tobacco categories and other categories, and you see they continue to prioritize the tobacco category at the top of their list. And I think that's telling. And you it -- we get a lot of questions about the -- I think you have to step back and think longer term on this. If you think about Marlboro's share, we're right where we were prepandemic, certainly during the pandemic as they received additional funds, whether that be from government or unemployment or things of that nature, it reinforced that Marlboro's the aspirational brand. So Marlboro benefited during that period. Certainly, we've given a little bit of that share back and feel satisfied with where Marlboro is. We've really -- the teams in advanced analytics as well as the Marlboro team putting those into the marketplace, the stability of Marlboro is incredible.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
So industry cigarette volumes have weakened considerably during the second quarter. You highlighted the headwinds facing smokers and how they're adjusting their purchasing behavior. I guess how are you thinking about the outlook for cigarette volumes over the remainder of the year? And then related to that, how much more pricing do you think that consumers can tolerate just given so far, we really haven't seen a meaningful acceleration in trade down to the discount segment, it's been consistent over the last couple of quarters. Do you see an accelerated risk of trade down within the category?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Let me see if I can unpack that a little bit, Pamela, if I miss anything, please follow up. I think when you think about the cigarette volume declines that we saw to the first half, you look historically and when you see the environment, the macroeconomic environment changed for our consumer. You see that they make short-term adjustments and then they adopt to it through time. I think, certainly through the first half, and we saw a little bit of a downshift in gas prices as we entered the third quarter, I think we've seen a correlation in gas prices just because our consumer is usually filling up their vehicle and then going in and making those purchases. But again, I think the research that we did is telling that the consumer is adjusting those behaviors to be able to prioritize their tobacco choices in the -- mostly in the C-store or gas stores. I think from a standpoint of pricing, and Pamela, we've shared with you this before. If you look at minutes worked in the U.S. and benchmark that around -- with other countries around the world that have mature tobacco categories. When you look at that, you still see that the U.S. is at the low end of that scale. So certainly, we feel like there's room to price, but that's something that we monitor. You remember that the factors that we think about when pricing is the strength of the brand. Certainly, corporate objectives play a part in that. But then we think about the economic health of the consumer and what those competitive activities do. And I think it's important to mention here again, the tools that we put in place. We put out the price gap, we put out kind of national metrics. But with the advanced analytics, we're able to use those tools and be very specific. So it to be different in Cleveland, Ohio than in Dallas/Texas. Because these tools allow us to adapt the retail promotions we put in the marketplace depending on what the individual consumers are feeling in that local area.
Pamela Kaufman:
That's helpful. Definitely, I just wanted to ask about how you're thinking about the implications to your relationship with Philip Morris in the heat-not-burn category, given their planned acquisition of Swedish Match? And how are you preparing for changes in the competitive in the U.S.?
Billy Gifford:
Well, Pamela, you know this as well as I do that it's always been a competitive marketplace. We always had major players. Certainly, this brings a new major player to the marketplace, but we feel like we have the tools in place. So we're going to evaluate everything, make sure that we understand or at least game plan how, Pam, I would approach, the marketplace using the products of Swedish Match and adapt accordingly. I don't want to go much further than that for competitive reasons. I think from a standpoint of heat-not-burn, I shared in my remarks that we're continuing discussions with them about IQOS.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Azer, Vivien with Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
I wanted to touch on -- Billy, so your commentary around the improved trial through the expanded Helix manufacturing capacity was interesting. I was curious if you could just expand and touch on repeat and how you're measuring that, given the promotional and the category.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Vivien, it's a great question. I think when you think about on! our research teams are really looking repeat purchases versus a trial offers. And we want to have increases in both. If you think about repeat purchases, we're very pleased with where we're at. Certainly, to your point, as we're investing, you have those repeat purchases that take place and you want to see the concreteness of that. And we feel very pleased and enjoy the repeat purchases that we have. But we felt like there was still opportunity to drive awareness and you've seen the increase in awareness we've been able to drive. And it's specific to the adult consumer that the product is product is very satisfying to the adult cigarette consumer, and we feel like there's still opportunity for trial there.
Vivien Azer:
Understood. And then my other question is just on the industry outlook. I know you guys have shied away from offering industry volume guidance for a while now, and I fully appreciate why. But if we look at the supplemental disclosures, estimated industry volume declines have nearly doubled over the course of the last 12 months, against a very challenging macrobackdrop. And that does account for it in the table that you've disclosed. I'm just curious so, has your thinking around the underlying macrodrivers changed at all?
Billy Gifford:
It has not, Vivien. When you think about it -- and can take those quarters that we provide and stretch them back, and you thought -- and you saw macroeconomic was a benefit not that many quarters ago. So you certainly see the swing. It's no different than the swings we see through history. You have the -- macroeconomic economic can be a benefit at times. We saw gas prices in 2015 were a huge benefit. And so I think the only thing I would point out is we're seeing a higher correlation with gas prices and purchasing behavior. That would be the only -- because historically, we tried to correlate gas prices to it. And they were moving nickels and dimes at a time. I think you're seeing faster swings in gas prices so there's a correlation the consumer behavior as they adapt to the short-term nature of those changes.
Operator:
And we'll take next question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
I just have a question on your guidance. You maintained your full year mid-single digit EPS growth guidance, but that does imply the second half EPS growth will need to accelerate versus the first half to hit the midpoint of your full year guide? So I just want to hear from you, what gives you the confidence this is going to happen, especially during an economic slowdown. I mean are your expectations that this will be driven from greater net price realization, assuming volumes remain pretty pressured or decelerate further? Are there any expected cost savings that you're hoping to realize in the second half that you could share with us? And then just finally, how do we think about stepped up investments that you might be making towards your smoke-free vision. Is that something that's factored into your guidance?
Sal Mancuso:
Yes. So Bonnie, first, thank you for the question, I'll take you through how we think about guidance. So throughout the year, we have communicated that we expected the second half to really drive the growth of our EPS on a year-over-year basis. And just to remind you of a couple of factors that we are seeing in the back half of the year. One is, we begin to lap quarters where we had unconstrained manufacturing in the nicotine pouch category. Also, in the fourth quarter we're, for the first time, going to be lapping a quarter without line income, right? That will happen in the fourth quarter. And then in the back half of the year, as inflation accelerated and we adjusted our MSA inflation assumptions, you start to lap that in the back half of the year as well. So there's some comparative factors that are part of the first half versus second half EPS growth. As far as investments, spending isn't linear necessarily throughout the year, especially when you were making investments in infrastructure and things like that. So I definitely wouldn't look at 1 quarter spending when it comes to that and read into it. It is something that ebbs and flows throughout the year.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right. And then I did just want to ask about the -- I guess the uncertainty around your smoke-free future, given everything going on from JUUL to Philip Morris entering in the U.S. via Swedish Match, I guess, the dispute you have with Philip Morris as it relates to IQOS. This continues to be one of the key concern from investors. I know you've touched on this, but any more color you can provide or share with us as to your goal to kind of hit the smoke-free future or transform your business in the next, I guess, decade would be helpful. I mean I know with your agreement with JUUL now that the fair value is below the agreement, I think you have the ability to compete in the e-vapor market. So is that an option you're exploring? And then just maybe color -- a little more color on the timing as it relates to your heat-not-burn. You mentioned it's in final design by the end of the year, and then you're going to begin regulatory preparations. But how long before you have a product that you can bring to the market, do you think? Is that 2 years out, 3 years out? Just trying to get a sense of some parameters as to how you're going to achieve your goal?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Bonnie. I think it's really important to step back, and I said it in my remarks, but let me add some color to it. The entire harm-reduction opportunity is in front of us in the U.S., and let me explain why I say that. You remember in my remarks, I talked about the authorizations that have taken place in e-vapor thus far. And they represent 1% of the e-vapor category volume. So there's still 99% of authorizations that could go either way. And so that category will be in a bit of transition while we're waiting for the FDA to make those authorizations, and then the outcome of those authorizations. If you think about novel oral, yes, we're making progress and competitors are making progress, but we're still waiting for FDA authorizations in that category. And so while we're making progress, there will be physicians from the FDA regarding that category. And then heat-not-burn, while it's been gaining momentum internationally, it's non-existent in the U.S. And so that's non-existent. So those are the 3 major growth categories. That's why I keep saying, I just wanted to add some color that the entire harm-reduction opportunity's in front of us. You're right to mention that we have development underway in 2 of those categories. We feel good about the pipeline. I know you would love to see those products, and I would love to show them to you, and we will at the appropriate time. But we feel good about that. As I mentioned earlier, the co-development with the consumer in that space. I think with e-vapor, the color I would add there is -- and I mentioned it earlier, we've always monitored the marketplace to understand consumer satisfaction with the various products in the marketplace, both in the U.S. and outside of the U.S. Additionally, with this quarter with us going below, you're right, we have the option to get out of the noncompete. If we so elect to do so. And we really feel like in the process with the stay from the FDA, and that decision's still looming as well as the rights that I mentioned in my remarks, we believe are beneficial to us at this point in the process, but we'll continue to really gauge what our options are there and make decisions accordingly.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.
Unidentified Analyst:
This is Puja [ph] on behalf of Priya. And my question is, so based on your comments indicating that you plan to repay your upcoming maturity with available cash. How are you thinking about any subsequent need to access the market for refinancing? And I also have a follow-up after that.
Sal Mancuso:
Sure. And thank you for the question. I'm really not going to signal future capital allocation decisions. I'm happy to share how we think about capital allocation, which, of course, considers a number of factors in those decisions including marketplace dynamics. We manage our balance sheet very carefully. We want to have a strong balance sheet. We want to continue to have investment-grade credit rating. So when we think about capital allocation, we take a balanced approach, and we've made the decision in August to use available cash to retire that debt, but future debt maturity towers, we'll analyze the marketplace at the time and make the appropriate decision.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. That makes sense. And as a quick follow-up, where should we sort of expect you to manage your cash balance over the near term as this will likely bring it more in line with your prepandemic type ranges?
Sal Mancuso:
Yes. Look, we are very fortunate in that we have operating companies that generate a significant amount of growth in cash. In a typical year, after paying our dividend and making the necessary investments, we traditionally have had, let's call it $1 billion in excess cash. And at the time, we make various decisions. There are times where we've gone to the Board and ask for a share buyback program. There are times where we've done some liability management to manage our maturity towers going forward, and strengthen the balance sheet. And there are times where we've made some investments such as the investment we made for the Poda technology recently. So that's how we think about cash going forward. But again, our operating companies do a tremendous job of generating cash flow for the shareholder and other stakeholders.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
A couple of questions from my side. So look, we have had some discussion around the harm-reduction opportunity in front of us, and how it is very early. But if we really look where harm-reduction is really developing, it is all international because it's very hard to introduce new products in the U.S. market because of the PMTA process. But do you think that really to explore the harm-reduction opportunity, you need to go international, much like Philip Morris is entering U.S.?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. To your point, and I appreciate you recognizing that the PMTA process and the entire harm-reduction opportunities in front of us in the U.S. It's something that we consider on a regular basis of how to get early consumer feedback outside of research in a live marketplace. And thus far, we've opted to go the route we are, which is with consumer research, but it's something that we consider on a regular basis.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. And just also , a follow up on the questions around JUUL and potential end of exclusivity, and you also met -- referenced the synthetic nicotine market. And some of these companies have applied for PMTAs, and can potentially get PMTAs. So how do you think of synthetic nicotine as an ingredient? Like is that a market you would like to explore? And if some of the companies get PMTAs, that's an area you would like to enter?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Certainly, we were pleased that with the support that took place, that synthetic nicotine is now under FDA authority. We believe in the process as far as the FDA being able to assess the science and evidence. Again, we watch all products that are in the marketplace, both in the U.S. and internationally, to understand how the consumer is interacting with them, what benefits they receive from them as far as satisfaction, enjoyment, the brand itself. And so it's something that stays on our radar.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll open it for the media. We'll go next to Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
I wanted to follow up on your statement, Billy, that M&A is not off the table for reduced risk products. And I wanted to ask specifically about the e-vapor category. Would you be open to the possibility of acquiring an e-cigarette brand, for example, that already has FDA authorization?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. While I don't speak to M&A in any regards. As I mentioned, look, we've always been monitoring the marketplace in the e-vapor space. We want to make sure we understand consumers' interactions with the various brands in the marketplace, whether they like those brands, whether they like the product -- satisfaction that those products give them. Now that we've written down this quarter below 10%, it affords us the opportunity to really explore those opportunities and make different decisions if we so choose. At this point in the process, we chose not to make any different decisions. We believe that where it's at in the process, as I mentioned earlier, with the FDA today and relooking through the review process of the applications as well as for -- some of our rights that we have as part of the agreement, we think those are beneficial. And we think, as we stated, the right decision currently is to stay under the non-compete.
Jennifer Maloney:
For your smoke-free future goals, do you expect or plan to focus on 1 particular category, like is modern oral going to be the focus of your efforts there? Or do you hope to play in all of the reduced-risk categories?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. We highlight that we see 3 categories right now as the growth potential in the U.S. That's the heat-not-burn category, the e-vapor category and the novel oral. Certainly, they will be shaped by regulatory decisions, Federal Legislative decisions on excise taxes and future innovation in those categories from the various manufacturers. So that will shape how large they are, but we see those as the 3 potential growth areas, and we look to participate in those. I would remind you that's why we work with the portfolio approach because we see consumers going from cigarettes to those various categories, and we want to be there for the consumer, depending on what category they choose.
Operator:
And there appears to be no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Mac Livingston, for any closing comments.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Ashley, and thanks, everybody, for joining us. Please contact the Investor Relations team if you have any further question. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thank you, and this does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2022 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about an hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Gretchen. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's first quarter business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2021. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of the non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford :
Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We're off to a strong start to the year and believe our businesses are on track to deliver against their full year plans. Our tobacco businesses performed well in a challenging macroeconomic environment, and we continue to make progress toward our vision to responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to a smoke-free future. Let's start with a review of the macroeconomic backdrop and its impact on U.S. tobacco consumers. In January, the surge of Omicron cases disrupted consumers' routines and purchasing patterns, resulting in short-term decreases in retail trips and overall tobacco volumes. Increased inflation throughout the quarter pressured discretionary income levels as the consumer price index reached a 4-year high in March, and higher gas prices were exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the rise in inflation was partially offset by improved employee metrics and increased wage growth for some consumers. The unemployment rate was 3.6% at the end of March, down from 6% in March of 2021. Total wages grew by nearly 5% in the first quarter compared to 8% average inflation. For some occupations, wage growth outpaced inflation, including occupations that over-indexed toward tobacco consumers. For example, wages grew 11% for production-related jobs and nearly 10% for jobs pertaining to transportation and materials moving. Additionally, the pressures of inflation were also offset for some consumers by higher federal income tax refunds. In the first quarter, the average federal income tax refund payment issued by the IRS increased by approximately 12%. We do expect inflation to persist for the balance of the year, however, and we will continue to monitor its effect on tobacco consumers. Moving to our consolidated results. Altria delivered strong first quarter performance in this dynamic environment, growing adjusted diluted earnings per share by 4.7%. Adjusted EPS growth was primarily driven by higher operating companies income and fewer shares outstanding partially offset by lower adjusted earnings from our ABI investment. In the smokeable products segment, we continued to execute our strategy of maximizing profitability in combustibles, while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of smoke-free products. First quarter smokeable segment adjusted OCI increased 5.7% and Marlboro retail share was stable sequentially. We believe Marlboro's share performance through this period reflects its continued strong brand equity among smokers. We believe the investments we have made behind data analytics and revenue growth management provide us with the right tools to support the smokeable strategy. These tools include PM USA's manufactured supported off-invoice program, which enables more efficient resource deployment for Marlboro as well as retail trade programs with multiple options designed to provide retailers with store-level solutions for our brands. We believe these capabilities position our smokeable businesses to navigate the current environment and to continue to deliver strong profitability in support of our vision and shareholder returns. Turning to our smoke-free product portfolio. We are excited by the performance of on! and oral nicotine pouches. on! reported shipment volume nearly doubled to 18 million cans in the first quarter. At retail, on! share of old tobacco increased by 2.5 percentage points, reaching 4.1%. As we shared at CAGNY, on! share growth has been primarily driven by repeat purchases from existing on! consumers and increased tobacco consumer trial. We are encouraged that these dynamics continued into the first quarter. At the category level, oral nicotine pouches reached a total oral tobacco retail share of 19.3 percentage points in the first quarter. The category grew 6.1 share points year-over-year, with on! representing more than 40% of this growth. We believe the brand continues to be a highly competitive product in the space, and it continues to perform well in all regions of the U.S. As a reminder, our premarket tobacco applications for the entire on! portfolio remain pending with the FDA. And we believe the FDA should determine that the marketing of these products is appropriate for the protection of public health. We are also actively working on modified risk tobacco product applications for on! We believe MRTP claims would provide impactful points of differentiation for the brand and important tools in educating and ultimately transitioning smokers to less harmful products. In e-vapor, we estimate that total category volume increased 10% versus the year-ago period and increased 4% sequentially as a result of increased volume in the vape store channel. Our minority investment in JUUL remains subject to challenge by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission. In February, an administrative law judge found in favor of Altria and JUUL and dismissed the entirety of the FTC's claims. The FTC is appealing that decision to the FTC. Any decision by the FTC is subject to appeal in federal appellate court. In heated tobacco, our teams are continuing to work with PMI on IQOS reentry plans, and we will keep you informed on developments as circumstances warrant. There is no change to our expectations regarding IQOS product availability. Moving to the regulatory environment. President Biden signed a bill last month to bring synthetic nicotine products under FDA regulation by updating the definition of a tobacco product within the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act to include only product that contains nicotine, including synthetic nicotine products. The bill allows manufacturers of synthetic nicotine products currently on market to keep those products on the market for 120 days after the bill's enactment, provided that they have submitted a PMTA for those products by May 14. Unless the FDA grants a PMTA within that time period, the products become unlawful and subject to the FDA's enforcement discretion. The bill creates a certain exception for this review period for those circumstances where the FDA issued a denial of a marketing order and the manufacturer thereafter marketed the product with synthetic nicotine. We believe this legislation is an important step toward the creation of a responsible smoke-free marketplace, consisting solely of FDA-authorized products. In combustibles, the FDA has indicated that it is on track to issue proposed product standards this month regarding menthol in cigarettes and characterizing flavors in cigars. As a reminder, the FDA rule-making process has multiple steps and provides several opportunities for stakeholders to provide input. Underage smoking is at the lowest level in a generation and efforts to prohibit the legal sale of products to adults as we have seen with alcohol prohibition and cannabis criminalization have consistently failed. Prohibition pushes products into illegal markets that lack regulatory oversight and lack underage prevention. We believe equitable harmed option is a better public policy approach to reducing smoking and improving public health. This means manufacturers must develop and the FDA authorize an array of potentially reduced harm alternatives that can appeal to and transition smokers across all backgrounds and demographic routes. We expect to be actively engaged in providing our perspective to the FDA throughout the process. We remain optimistic about the future of harm-reduction in the U.S. We believe we have an unprecedented opportunity to lead the way in shifting millions of smokers away from cigarettes. We're encouraged that the FDA has started authorizing smoke-free products, but more needs to be done to build a marketplace of authorized reduced-harm products that smokers can consider as they move away from cigarettes. Our tobacco businesses delivered extraordinary results in a challenging and dynamic environment. And this could not be done without the passion, resiliency and fierce determination of our employees. Their talent and dedication continue to give me confidence in our ability to move beyond smoking. I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our results.
Sal Mancuso :
Thanks, Billy. I'd like to begin with a discussion on the inflationary environment, which was exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We continue to monitor the potential impacts to our operations and supply chain, and we are actively working to mitigate risk. Thanks to the hard work of our teams, we have not experienced a material adverse impact from these events. While our company will continue to monitor the situation, our hearts go out to the suffering Ukrainian people and to all of those affected by the war. Moving to our businesses. The smokeable products segment delivered excellent financial performance once again. In the first quarter, the segment grew its adjusted OCI by 5.7% and expanded its adjusted OCI margins to 59.5%. The segment also reported strong net price realization of 9.2%. First quarter smokeable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 6.3%. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and other factors, we estimate that segment domestic cigarette volumes for the first quarter declined by 8%, and that industry volumes declined by 6.5% over the same period. We believe it's important to analyze cigarette volume trends over the longer term as decline rates in any one period can be influenced by various factors. In fact, the 2-year average decline rates for first quarter adjusted smokeable segment and industry cigarette volume declines were 5.5% and 4.5%, respectively. In the marketplace, Marlboro demonstrated strength and resilience during a dynamic period for consumers. In the first quarter, Marlboro's retail share of the category was 42.6%, stable sequentially and down 0.4 versus the year ago period. Marlboro also maintained its leadership among premium brands, growing its share of the premium segment to 57.8%, up 0.2 sequentially and versus year-ago. And in discount, total share of the cigarette category in the first quarter increased 0.3 sequentially to 26.4%, driven primarily by deep discount products. We believe the share increases in discount were due to the previously mentioned macroeconomic factors that affected tobacco consumers in the first quarter. In cigars, Middleton continued to provide strong contributions to smokeable segment financial results, and we are encouraged by the continued strength of the iconic Black & Mild brand. Reported cigar shipment volume decreased 9.6% in the first quarter, primarily driven by trade inventory movements. To date, Middleton is successfully navigating the regulatory environment with the support of our regulatory affairs team, having received market orders or exemptions from the FDA covering over 99% of its volume. Of course, as Billy mentioned earlier, we will continue to monitor the FDA's proposed product standard on characterizing flavors in cigars and its potential impact to Middleton's portfolio. We expect to be actively engaged in providing our perspective throughout the rule-making process. Moving to the oral tobacco products segment, adjusted OCI and adjusted OCI margins contracted in the first quarter, primarily due to the increased investments behind on! Total segment reported shipment volume decreased 1.9%. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences, we estimate that total oral tobacco segment volumes were unchanged. At the industry level, total oral tobacco volume growth moderated to 1.5% over the past 6 months. We continue to observe steady growth from the oral nicotine pouch category, but this has been offset by declining moist smokeless tobacco volumes as a result of difficult comparison periods and the macroeconomic challenges facing tobacco consumers. Retail share for the oral tobacco products segment declined 1.1 percentage points in the first quarter as declines in MST offset strong share gains for on!. We remain pleased with the overall performance of the segment as Copenhagen continues to generate significant income in the high-margin MST category, and we remain excited about the performance of on! Turning to our investment in ABI. We recorded $141 million of adjusted equity earnings in the first quarter, down 25.8% versus the prior year. As we have previously shared, we view our ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal is to maximize the long-term value of the investment for our shareholders. Moving to capital allocation and our financial outlook. We remain committed to creating long-term shareholder value through the pursuit of our vision and our significant capital returns. In the first quarter, we paid approximately $1.6 billion in dividends and repurchased approximately 11.3 million shares totaling $576 million. We have approximately $1.2 billion remaining under the currently authorized $3.5 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by year-end. We reaffirm our guidance to deliver 2022 full year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.79 to $4.93. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 4% to 7% from $4.61 base in 2021. We continue to expect that 2022 adjusted diluted EPS growth will be weighted toward the second half of the year. Before opening it up to Q&A, I'd like to comment on our recent ESG progress. Whilst harm reduction and underage use remain the most important social issues for our company to address, we have committed to make advancements in other ESG areas. At Altria, we are committed to reducing our environmental impact and recently announced our first virtual power purchase agreement for energy produced by a new wind farm project in Texas. This agreement marks significant progress toward 2 of our science-based environmental targets, achieving 100% renewable electricity and reducing operational greenhouse gas emissions 55% by 2030. When the project is operational, we expect we will hit those targets ahead of schedule. We're proud to support a project that will bring additional renewable energy to the electricity grid, contributing to positive climate action. With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question comes from Chris Growe from Stifel.
Chris Growe:
I just had a question for you. You've had -- there's a little bit more of a macro headwind that's been occurring. Obviously, some areas where wages you showed, I think were doing a little better. But as I think about that, as you look at your kind of the way you look at it today, whether it be unemployment, gas prices, those sorts of things, is there a point -- at what point this year would you expect that to be less of a drag on volume? And I guess related to that, in terms of what you're seeing within the Marlboro franchise, Marlboro's share was quite resilient this quarter. Are consumers moving around within that visage of -- to Marlboro, the different blends as an example?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Chris. I'll take them in order. So from a standpoint, we were excited to see the resilience of our consumer. And that's why we wanted to highlight the wage inflation that I think a number of industries don't see it's benefited our tobacco consumer. It's something that we'll continue to watch. Certainly, gas prices has impact on our consumers because usually they're filling up their car truck and then going in and purchasing the product. So it's something that we'll continue to watch, but we feel pleased through the first quarter with the resiliency we've seen in the tobacco consumer. As far as Marlboro, we're extremely excited with the stability of Marlboro. And if you go back, you can see pre-COVID, we had the benefit of the strength of Marlboro. And we benefited from the consumer having extra discretionary income as we proceeded through the COVID pandemic. And I think that pointed to that Marlboro's still the aspirational brand in the marketplace. And then as we've seen discretionary income come under pressure, we gave a little bit of that share back that we had benefited during the COVID virus. But through that entire period, the Marlboro brand has held up. You always see a little bit of movement. If you think about Marlboro as the brand, it has over 90% loyalty. That's a consumer that's buying it every time they make a purchase of a cigarette in the marketplace. But you see a little bit of movement, but nothing that I would highlight for you at this point.
Chris Growe:
Okay. I just had one other question. I think you talked about the dynamic of consumers moving into vape shops, for example, for vapor. And is that a movement away from traditional outlets? And I guess just what could be driving that? And I guess, to that effect, what that could mean to JUUL in the future based on that movement by consumers?
Billy Gifford :
Yes. What we tried to highlight was where we saw some of the growth. It was in the vape shop channel. Again, no trend there to highlight. Just wanted to highlight where we saw the growth sequentially. I think if you step back and look at the entire e-vapor category, what we've tried to highlight is as all of these products are coming under FDA regulation, and we should see and have started seeing some of the decisions by the FDA, I think that entire category will be in a bit of a transition over the next year to 18 months as some products make it through the process and some are denied. And so those consumers will be moving around a bit. What we look forward to and continue to believe is that e-vapor can play an important role in harm reduction in the U.S. once we get to a total FDA-authorized marketplace.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Vivien Azer from Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
So the menthol news has been long anticipated, certainly over the last 12 months given the April 2022 target. Billy, maybe it will be helpful. You guys have been pretty consistent in disclosing your share of menthol, but just dimensionalizing how big the menthol category is in the broader category context.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. So to your point on our metrics page, you can see our share of menthol is 9.4% across PM USA, and it's pretty consistent from an industry standpoint that it represents about 1/3 of industry from a menthol cigarettes in the marketplace versus non-menthol.
Vivien Azer:
Understood. That's really helpful. My next question is on the IRS call out. That's a bit of a unique call out relative to what we've been hearing from other companies under my coverage. So is the message that this is kind of a one-quarter benefit? Like how are you guys kind of thinking about that? Like does it annualized? Or you kind of thought that, that was kind of a onetime offset to inflationary pressures for the consumer?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think you can think of it as a form of government stimulus, to a certain extent, Vivien. When you think about it, the actual refund checks are up. As far as -- we'll see how that plays out through the second quarter, not everybody gets their refund checks in the first quarter. But we certainly want to highlight it for our consumer. I think the bigger call out, though, and you saw it, was the wage inflation. And that's a piece that was benefiting our consumer, and that would be something that we would anticipate would be consistent throughout the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Pamela Kaufman from Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
Can you give an update on your strategy in the oral tobacco segment? Performance reflects continued elevated investment behind on! How should we think about profitability in this segment and how it evolves? And is there a level of market share or particular goalpost that you can point to that would drive a shift towards more of a profit focus for on!?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I appreciate the question, Pamela. I think when you think about our strategy in oral tobacco, it's to maximize profitability over the long term in the moist smokeless category with the strength of Copenhagen, while making responsible investments in on! for -- to continue to fund its growth. We believe, long term, we can achieve tobacco-like margins within the oral nicotine pouch category. But certainly, to your point, we're in the investment period now. And you saw the significant growth we saw year-over-year, almost doubling volume from a comparison first quarter-to-first quarter. And we've been trying to highlight all along, once we got past the manufacturing capacity constraint, that we wanted to invest to make sure it was in the consideration set of our consumers when they're making those choices for alternative products. What you'll see that we've started is really using our advanced analytics that we invested in to be more targeted with some of the promotions. But we're still in the investment period, and we'll remain in that for a period of time.
Pamela Kaufman:
Great. And then can you discuss what you're observing from the competitive landscape within the cigarette category in light of the current consumer environment. The deep discount segment continues to gain share at a higher pace, and price gaps remain wide relative to historical levels. Can you talk about how you're thinking about trade down within the cigarette category given some of the consumer headwinds?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, sure. Some of what you've seen is exactly what you highlighted, Pamela, which is as the discretionary income comes under pressure, whether that's through inflation or gas prices or even mobility, you'll see some trade down. I think if you think about the total cigarette consumer group, think about it as a bit of a barbell. There's a group of consumers that are at the bottom end of that, that are always buying the cheapest in the store. And so you see that occur. You saw the benefit in Marlboro that we experienced when discretionary income wasn't under so much pressure. But the way we think about it is we're a premium-focused company, and you see this, the rock-solid stability of Marlboro through time.
Operator:
The next question comes from Gaurav Jain from Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
So a couple of questions here. Billy, so the Slide #6 in which you are talking about how wages are trending across different professions is very interesting. Now if I apply a similar sort of lens to the entire U.S. and different states and maybe different wage inflation in different states, are you seeing better volume trends in the states where wage inflation is higher versus where wage inflation is lower?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. It's an interesting question. We don't disclose to that level, but we do see where wage inflation has -- and we try to highlight a couple of the categories, but where wage inflation has benefited to the back of consumer, and that's why we wanted to highlight that for you.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. If I were to just say that wage inflation will likely accelerate as we go through this year, because of we can see weekly jobless data and everything and federal reserve is still behind the curve. So then -- should we then expect that cigarette volumes, which fell minus 6.5% in Q1, which are difficult comps, which are the gas price spike. So it should start moderating from here and improve as the year progresses.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think the macroeconomic environment, to your point, is very dynamic. Certainly, we would expect wage inflation to at least be consistent throughout the year. In your hypothesis of it increasing, I guess, we'll see on how unemployment goes and how job openings respond to that. I think the other side, though, is the tailwind. You highlighted gas prices. We'll see where gas prices go through the remainder part of the year and where inflation trends. So I think it's very dynamic, and that's why we wanted to highlight some of the tailwinds and headwinds that we were seeing.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. And coming to the synthetic nicotine market and what the FDA has done. So in the synthetic nicotine market, like how do you see this entire category playing out in the next few months and will that be a benefit to your volumes as well?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. So when you think about the total nicotine, you've seen us highlight that a couple of times and really looking at how the consumer is moving around. And that's exactly why, Gaurav, we put the portfolio approach in place because FDA decisions in one category put consumers at play and force them to other categories. And so we believe in having the portfolio approach is important. And so you can take the e-vapor category, depending on the decisions made by the FDA, that's why we highlight that, that category could be in a bit of a transition for the next year to 18 months as decisions come out and some products make it through and some products do not. Those consumers for products that do not make it will be at play either for other e-vapor products or other categories that they have in their consideration set.
Gaurav Jain :
Sure. And if I could just sneak in a last one for Sal. So Sal, there's this net periodic benefit income line item in your P&L, which has been a constant benefit. And I used to think that when interest rates go up, it will become a headwind, but it hasn't. So how does this line item work?
Sal Mancuso :
Can you repeat that? I apologize.
Gaurav Jain :
The net periodic benefit income, that line item, which I think is linked to your pension, interest and income and expense. So it has always been a tailwind to your P&L. And I thought that it would become a headwind as interest rate rise, but still there is a benefit that's happening. So how do…
Sal Mancuso :
That's a reflection of the strength -- I'm sorry to interrupt. That's a reflection of the strength of our funding of our pension plan and also some favorability in our overall performance in the pension plan, which, as you know, gets amortized over time. So you are correct in that, it has had a slight benefit to our P&L.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
I actually -- I wanted to circle back on your cig volumes, just given some of the investor concerns about your volume in this environment, especially your premium Marlboro volume given the wider price gap. So first, Billy, could you highlight for us if your Q1 results were in line with your expectations? And then maybe share some more color for us around your strategy to protect your volume and share. For instance, I think you guys are stepping up promotional spending a bit for some of the price-sensitive consumers. And then maybe highlight for us how you leverage your special select bring during these times to kind of keep more consumers in your Marlboro franchise? And then I'd like to just better understand why you aren't maybe striking a better balance between your pricing and volumes?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Bonnie. So I'll try to address it. There were multiple parts there, but I'll try to address it with the strategy we implemented. I think what you've seen with Marlboro and we highlighted for you is the rock-steady performance of Marlboro through time. I think when you think about the pricing and the promotions in the marketplace, we highlighted for you the way we're using advanced analytics and revenue growth management is what most companies call it, being able to get closer to the consumer and provide more -- if we're having promotions, provide it closer to the individual consumers. And so whether that's through retail trade programs, where we have multiple options for retail trade partners, to really have multiple solutions, store-level solutions versus more of a total geographic solution for consumers in the marketplace because, as you know, certain states, the consumers are under different economic health than other states, as well as the ability to have our manufacturer of invoice. And so our price realization, I would just remind you, is made up of 2 components. It's list price and it's the efficiencies that we're getting through our revenue growth management and our advanced analytics. So when you think about that in totality, you see the steadiness of Marlboro and the efficiencies coming through the promotional process. And so it's allowing us to be more targeted and efficient with the way we spend promotions.
Sal Mancuso:
Bonnie, I would just add one other point, which we highlighted in our opening remarks. I think the strength of Marlboro's performance within the premium category, where share of premium has grown as a reflection of the effectiveness of the programs and tools Billy just mentioned.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right. Yes. I mean, so I guess the right way to think about your smokeable business, I mean it's industry that's in secular decline in terms of volumes. They've been declining for a very, very long time. So the way you're managing this is offsetting that with pricing and trying to drive, whether it's low or mid-single-digit operating income growth and expanding your margins. And you feel good, even in this environment, that you're going to be able to continue to do that.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think you see with the results through the first quarter. I think that was -- from a macroeconomic standpoint, it was a pretty tough quarter. And you've seen other industries be impacted by that, and we were able to navigate that very nicely. Again, I would just highlight, with the advanced analytics and the tools we have available to us, we can be much more precise. When you look at the 12-month decomposition we provide on volume, you can see from a price elasticity, it's holding firm from a standpoint of total price elasticity. You can really see it's just the macroeconomic factors that have switched around through time.
Bonnie Herzog:
And just one quick final clarification just on your guidance. Can you touch on what it assumes in terms of total industry cig volumes? I mean are you assuming that volumes decelerate further this year? Any color on that would be helpful to kind of frame all of this.
Billy Gifford :
Yes. I appreciate it, Bonnie. And I know that you're looking for volume guidance that we don't provide. I think with this dynamic marketplace, the reason we give a range of guidance is we know that things are going to change for our consumer base. And we want to be able to provide the consumer what they need. And so that's why we put a range of guidance out there. Volume is one component, but there are multiple components that go into that guidance. So just to highlight one factor, I don't think is appropriate. It's really -- we feel comfortable reaffirming our guidance in the quarter. And it's really about keeping an eye on how the consumers bearing through this macroeconomic environment.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Priya Ohri-Gupta from Barclays.
Priya Ohri-Gupta:
Sal, I was wondering if you could just provide us with some thoughts on your outlook for the refinancing market. You do have a little over $1 billion maturing later this year and how you're thinking about other opportunities for perhaps greater interest expense management across your debt portfolio? And then secondly, you do have one of your euro bonds maturing early in 2023. If I recall, that serves as a net investment hedge against the dividend you received from ABI. So strategically, how should we think about sort of the need to refinance that in euro versus sort of refinancing in dollar?
Sal Mancuso :
Sure. So I'll take those questions in order. First, I guess the way I'd respond to your initial question is that it's critical for us that we continue to manage a strong balance sheet going forward. As you know, last year, in part of our capital allocation, we did do some tender refinancing of debt, which extended maturities of low interest debt. We're pleased with the results of that transaction. And part of the way we manage the balance sheet is we manage our debt towers going forward so that we're less impacted by market dynamics and we have the ability to have flexibility in how we treat maturing debt. So I'm not going to forecast out necessarily how we'll handle that debt that's coming to maturity. But of course, we will do the analysis and determine the best way to handle that, whether it's paid off with existing cash or think about refinancing as such. And the same answer goes for the euro debt that's coming through -- that's coming due. We'll do the analysis. You are correct in that it is a natural hedge against the ABI dividends that we receive. And we do have flexibility to think about being how we can be opportunistic across various markets, whether we're thinking about managing our balance sheet going forward or refinancing or managing debt as it comes due.
Operator:
And we have a question from Gaurav Jain from Barclays again.
Gaurav Jain :
Just a quick question on the ABI stake, believe, Sal, like any updated thoughts on how you are thinking about it.
Sal Mancuso :
There's really nothing new to say. We continue to perform the analysis related to our ABI stake. As we spoke about in our opening remarks, it's a financial investment. Our focus is on maximizing that investment for the long-term shareholder value. We continue to do the analysis, and there's nothing new to report on the asset itself.
Operator:
We will now take questions from the media representatives. And our next question comes from Jennifer Maloney from Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
I wanted to ask about consumer switching patterns that you would expect to see if a menthol ban were implemented either in the state of California or nationwide. First of all, would you expect to see Newport smokers switching to Marlboro? And if so, what net impact would you expect to see on your overall cigarette business?
Billy Gifford :
Yes. I think it's tough to say. I think with some of the alternative products that are in the marketplace, certainly, if there were an outright ban using your hypothetical to menthol, the consumer for the menthol cigarettes will either go to the illegal market, as we highlighted under unintended consequences of an outright ban, or look to either non-menthol cigarettes or alternative products. So it's tough to say where that will go. I think if you look at some of the research, there's limited research on it, but some would say that they would convert to non-menthol cigarettes. I think the better point here, though, is if you step back, prohibition, at least through history, hasn't worked. The better approach is to have these alternative products and allow we know consumers want to move to alternative products that have the potential to reduce harm. That seems like that should be the focus and a better approach than an outright ban.
Jennifer Maloney :
One quick follow-up. What products would you expect Marlboro menthol smokers to switch to? And would you market any products specifically to them in the event RECONNECT of a menthol cigarette brand like Marlboro Gold or JUUL or on!
Billy Gifford:
Yes. We'll have to wait to see what the proposal that comes out and how it approaches menthol. We would really look to, as we said, to support our vision and really look to move the consumer down the continuum of risk. And so -- that's the way we would approach it with the alternative products that are in the marketplace. But certainly, it's ultimately the consumer's choice.
Operator:
At this time, I would like to turn the call back to Mac Livingston for closing comments.
Mac Livingston:
Thank you all for joining us this morning. Please feel free to contact the Investor Relations team if you have further questions. Thanks again.
Operator:
This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time. Have a great day.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2021 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Leo. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's fourth quarter and full year business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2020. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Altria delivered outstanding results in 2021 across our businesses, including strong financial performance, progress toward our vision and advancements in our ESG efforts. This morning, we'll highlight our accomplishments in each of these areas. First, Altria grew its 2021 adjusted diluted earnings per share by 5.7%, driven in part by the resiliency of our cigarette, cigar and moist smokeless tobacco businesses. Additionally, we returned more than $8.1 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. This total represents the third largest single year cash return in Altria's history and the largest annual return since 2002. We have continued to make progress toward our vision of responsibly leading the transition of adult smokers to a smoke-free future. Our teams took several steps forward in 2021, including accelerating the retail share growth of on! and further enhancing the capabilities to expand heated tobacco and other new U.S. tobacco products, advancing the science, research and development behind our smoke-free products, advocating for tobacco harm reduction by encouraging the FDA and other stakeholders to address the widely held nicotine misperceptions in society. And we made excellent strides in establishing a best-in-class consumer engagement system to support smoker transition to smoke-free products. Our system leverages robust transactional data and our advanced analytic capabilities to engage with consumers at the point of purchase. Finally, some of our achievements across our responsibility focus areas, included publishing six corporate responsibility reports, summarizing our progress in critical areas such as harm reduction and underage prevention and publishing our inaugural task force on climate-related financial disclosures report. We were recognized for the second consecutive year with a AA rating from CDP for climate and water stewardship. And we advanced our internal talent and cultural goals, embraced workplace flexibility and embedded inclusion and diversity considerations within our performance review process to hold our leaders accountable. We're excited to share more about our responsibility efforts and our consumer engagement system next month at CAGNY. 2021 was a dynamic year for the U.S. tobacco industry, and total industry volumes were influenced by several factors, including pandemic-induced shifts in consumer purchasing behavior and tobacco usage occasions, a continued trend towards smoke-free alternatives and an evolving regulatory and legislative landscape. Despite year-over-year volatility due to pandemic-related factors, total tobacco volume trends remained stable. In fact, we estimate that overall tobacco space volumes have decreased by 0.3% annualized for the past two years and by 0.8% over the last five years on a compounded annual basis. Diving deeper, total estimated equivalized volumes for smoke-free products in the U.S. grew to 3.8 billion equivalized units in 2021 and represented approximately 24% of the total tobacco space. We estimate the year-over-year increases in smoke-free volumes were driven by the e-vapor category, which resumed its growth after a temporary pause in 2020 and oral nicotine pouches, which continue to grow rapidly from a small base. 2021 smoke-free volumes also benefited from the geographic expansion of IQOS in the heated tobacco category. But we're pressured by modest declines in the MST category due to shifts in consumer purchasing behavior and movement to other smoke-free categories. And in combustibles, volume declined to approximately 11.8 billion equivalized units driven by several factors, which Sal will discuss later in his remarks. Turning to our smoke-free product portfolio. We're excited by the exceptional performance of on! in oral nicotine pouches. on! retail share of oral tobacco increased by nearly a full share point sequentially, reaching 3.9 share points for the fourth quarter and nearly doubling its share over the past six months. These strong results were primarily driven by an increase in multi-can purchases. As of the end of the year, on! was available for sale in approximately 117,000 in U.S. retail stores. The on! nicotine pouch category reached a total oral tobacco retail share of 17.9 percentage points in the fourth quarter, growing 7.4 share points year-over-year. We're encouraged that on! represented more than 1/3 of this growth and the brand is proving to be a highly competitive product in the space. Our premarket tobacco applications for the entire on! portfolio remain pending with the FDA. And we believe that the FDA should determine that the marketing of these products is appropriate for the protection of public health. We are also working -- actively working on modified risk tobacco product applications for on! and expect to submit these applications to the FDA by the end of this year. We believe an MRTP claim would be an impactful point of differentiation for the brand and an important tool in educating and ultimately transitioning smokers to less harmful products. In heated tobacco, our teams made excellent progress with IQOS in the Northern Virginia market with Marlboro HeatSticks achieving a 1.9% retail share of the cigarette category in stores with distribution for the month of October. Unfortunately, PM USA had to remove IQOS from the market in November due to the International Trade Commission's importation ban and cease and desist orders. PMI is responsible for IQOS manufacturing, and we have been in contact regarding product availability. At the present time, we do not expect to have access to IQOS devices or Marlboro HeatSticks in 2022. However, we remain focused on returning IQOS to the market as soon as possible. Our teams are actively working on re-entry plans and we expect to be ready to bring IQOS back to U.S. consumers when available. Our agreement with PMI contemplates disruptions such as those caused by the ITC orders and requires the parties to negotiate in good faith to amend the agreement appropriately. In the second quarter of 2020, we disclosed two milestones in our IQOS agreement with PMI necessary for PM USA to maintain its exclusive license and distribution rights for IQOS in the U.S. and to earn the renewal option for an additional five-year term. The initial five-year term does not expire until April of 2024. But we believe that PM USA has already met these milestones based on the strong performance of IQOS in the Charlotte and Northern Virginia markets. PMI has communicated that it disagrees with our position. We expect to continue discussing these matters with PMI. We firmly believe that heated tobacco products can play an important role in U.S. harm reduction, and we are continuing our efforts to support the category's growth. We have gained significant knowledge from our IQOS commercialization efforts, which we expect to use going forward. Our teams learned how to educate U.S. smokers on a brand-new tobacco category and how to effectively support their transition journey to smoke-free alternatives. We demonstrated improved performance in each successive market and gained valuable knowledge on leveraging MRTP claims to transition smokers. Additionally, we have built a robust post-market surveillance system, all of which we believe will position us to successfully achieve our objective of moving beyond smoking. Moving to the e-vapor category. The 2021 Monitoring the Future study was recently released, and the data showed positive improvements in underage usage trends. Both underage use of nicotine vaping products and JUUL specifically show continued signs of decline. The latest data shows that JUUL underage usage is down by 70% from 2019 with total underaged nicotine vaping down 27% over the same period. We are encouraged by the progress, but more still needs to be done, and we remain committed to continuing our work to reduce underage use of all tobacco products. Turning to the regulatory environment. The FDA is currently weighing several decisions that we believe will shape the future of harm reduction in the U.S. In the e-vapor category, the FDA has issued marketing denial orders for many e-vapor PMTAs, predominantly applications for open systems and flavored e-liquids. These denial orders have resulted in significant litigation across the country. In the meantime, PMTAs for most leading e-vapor products, including JUUL, are still in an FDA review. The FDA granted its first e-vapor market order last year for the tobacco variant of a Cigalike product. The FDA has not reached a final decision for that manufacturer's menthol variant but did deny its submissions for its other flavored cartridges. In oral tobacco, PMTAs for the leading oral nicotine pouch products, including on! remain pending with the FDA. Last year, the FDA granted the first market authorizations among innovative oral tobacco products for our Verve Discs and Chews in the flavors of Green Mint and Blue Mint. These were also the first flavored product authorizations for newly deemed tobacco products. Additionally, MRTP applications previously submitted for Copenhagen Snuff and competitive Snus products remain an FDA review. Finally, in combustibles, the FDA has stated that they are on track to issue a proposed product -- to issue proposed product standards by April 2022 regarding menthol in cigarettes and characterizing flavors in cigars. As a reminder, the FDA rule-making process for these and all potential product standards has multiple steps and provide several opportunities for stakeholders to provide input. There are formal requirements related to public notice and comment and steps requiring the office of management and budget to assess economic consequences at several points in the process. Importantly, if the FDA chooses to move forward with their final rules, they must address all comments received throughout the rule-making process. Of course, any final rule must take into account the potential for unintended consequences and would be subject to legal challenges. We plan to review the proposed rules in detail and intend to engage with the FDA throughout the rulemaking process on each of these issues. We remain optimistic about the future of harm reduction in the U.S. We believe we have an unprecedented opportunity to lead the way in shifting millions of smokers away from cigarettes if we follow the science and foster innovation with the support of reasonable regulation. We are encouraged that the FDA has authorized a product in each of the 3 major smoke-free categories. Going forward, this year, we expect the FDA to carefully consider the scientific merits of each remaining application, and we're hopeful for significant progress in product marketing and claim authorizations. I would like to end my commentary regarding 2021 with the message to Altria's employees. Thank you for your dedication, passion and creativity through a difficult period. We experienced several challenges last year in both our professional and personal lives, and I admire your resiliency and fortitude. You are a driving force in moving beyond smoking and we are very appreciative of your efforts and commitment. Let's now move to our financial outlook for 2022. Our plans for the year ahead include a continuation of our strategy to balance earnings growth and shareholder returns with investments toward our vision. For 2022, our planned investment areas include digital consumer engagement, smoke-free product research, development and regulatory preparations and marketplace activities in support of our smoke-free products. The external environment remains dynamic, however, and we're monitoring various factors such as the economy, including the impact of increased inflation; the impact of current and potential future COVID-19 variants and mitigation strategies; tobacco consumer dynamics, including tobacco usage occasions and available disposable income; and regulatory and legislative developments. Taking these factors into consideration, we expect to deliver 2022 full year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.79 to $4.93. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 4% to 7% from a $4.61 base in 2021. We expect 2022 adjusted diluted EPS growth to be weighted toward the second half of the year. Our guidance includes anticipated inflationary increases in master settlement agreement expenses and direct materials expenses and our current expectation that we will not have access to the IQOS system in 2022. I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our results.
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks, Billy. I'd like to begin with an update on consumer disposable income, mobility and retail store traffic. We believe rising gas prices, inflation and the reduction of COVID-19 relief programs led to a decrease in disposable income on a sequential and year-over-year basis. In addition, increased consumer mobility versus the prior year, offer consumers more options for their discretionary spending and led to fewer tobacco usage occasions. At retail, fourth quarter trends were unchanged sequentially. We estimate that compared to pre-pandemic levels the number of tobacco consumer trips to the store continue to be depressed, but tobacco expenditures per trip remain elevated. Moving to our businesses. The smokable products segment delivered excellent financial performance once again. Our strategy for this segment continues to be maximizing profitability while balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of our smoke-free portfolio. We believe our teams are successfully executing this strategy and the segment has delivered strong profit growth and stable Marlboro marketplace performance throughout the pandemic period. In the fourth quarter, the segment grew its adjusted OCI by 4.9% and expanded its adjusted OCI margins to 56.2%. The segment also reported strong net price realization of 8.8%. Fourth quarter smokable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 5.9%. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and other factors, we estimate that segment domestic cigarette volumes for the fourth quarter declined by 8%, and that industry volumes declined by 6.5% over the same period. As a reminder, adjusted cigarette volumes were strong in the fourth quarter of 2020. With our smokable segment adjusted cigarette volumes declining by just 1% and industry volumes growing by 1.5%. For the full year, smokable segment adjusted OCI grew 3.1% to $10.4 billion. Adjusted OCI margins expanded by 1.2 percentage points to 57.6%. These strong full year results were supported by robust net price realization, up 9.1%. Full year smokable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 7.5% due to the strong comparison period and the continuation of pandemic-driven changes in the consumer behavior. When adjusted for trade inventory movement, calendar differences and other factors, we estimate that smokable segment cigarette volumes declined by 6% and that the full industry declined by 5.5%. We believe it's important to analyze cigarette volume trends over the longer term as decline rates in any 1 year can be influenced by various factors. The COVID-19 pandemic has certainly been one of these distorting factors. And we believe the best way to assess cigarette volumes during this period is looking at 2020 and 2021 volumes combined. In fact, the 2-year average decline rates for adjusted smokable segment and industry cigarette volume declines were 4% and 3%, respectively, well within the range of historic norms. Turning to marketplace performance. Marlboro remains strong and has demonstrated resilience. The cigarette category remains very competitive. After market share gains in the first half of 2021, Marlboro did see share in the fourth quarter. We believe the sequential share decline occurred due to macroeconomic pressures on consumer disposable income. While the vast majority of Marlboro consumers are highly brand loyal, we do know that cigarette brand selection for a subset of smokers is dependent on economic conditions. These consumers are more likely to select premium brands during economic upswings as demonstrated by Marlboro share gains in the first half of 2021, but they are also more likely to trade down in tougher economic situations. We remain focused on the long-term strength of Marlboro. And we are very pleased that its full year share grew 0.2 to 43.1% and that the brand remained stable since the beginning of the pandemic. In discount, total segment retail share in the fourth quarter continued to fluctuate, increasing 0.7 sequentially to 26% driven primarily by deep discount products. We believe the share increases observed in the discount segment or due to the previously mentioned macroeconomic factors that pressured the consumer in the fourth quarter. For the full year, discount segment share increased 0.5 to 25.4%, which was at the high end of its historical ranges. We expect fluctuation in discount segment shares to continue as the cohort of price-sensitive consumers react to their short-term economic conditions. And in cigars, Middleton provided strong contributions to smokable segment financial results. Reported cigar shipment volume was essentially unchanged for the year, as Middleton maintained the strength of the iconic Black & Mild brand and successfully managed its supply chain during a challenging year. Turning to the oral tobacco products segment. Adjusted OCI and adjusted OCI margins contracted for the full year, primarily due to increased investments behind on!. Total segment reported shipment volume was unchanged for the year. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences, we estimate that total oral tobacco segment volumes declined by 0.5%. We remain pleased with the overall performance of the segment as Copenhagen continues to generate significant income in the high-margin MST category, and we're excited about the growth demonstrated by on!. Oral Tobacco Products segment retail share for the fourth quarter was down slightly sequentially as strong share gains from on! nearly offset declines in MST. The segment declined 1.6 percentage points versus the fourth quarter last year due to the continued growth of the oral nicotine pouch category. Turning to our investment in ABI. We recorded $172 million of adjusted equity earnings in the fourth quarter, representing Altria's share of ABI's third quarter results. For the full year, we recorded $639 million in adjusted equity earnings, up 18.3% versus 2020. As we shared in our previous earnings call, we view our ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal is to maximize the long-term value of the investment for our shareholders. In our all Other operating category, we continue to make progress on our wind down of Philip Morris Capital Corporation. At year-end, the net finance assets balance was $114 million, down more than $200 million since the end of 2020 due to rents received and asset sales. As previously announced, we expect to complete the PMCC wind down by the end of 2022. Turning to capital allocation. We remain committed to creating long-term shareholder value through the pursuit of our vision and our significant capital returns. As Billy mentioned in his opening remarks, we returned more than $8.1 billion in cash last year to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. These record cash returns included paying $6.4 billion in dividends, raising the dividend for the 56th time in 52 years and repurchasing nearly 36 million shares during the year totaling $1.7 billion. We also sold Ste. Michelle Wine Estates and expanded our share repurchase program from $2 billion to $3.5 billion. We have approximately $1.8 billion remaining under this expanded program, which we expect to complete by December 31, 2022. We continue to have a strong balance sheet, and our goal is to maintain an investment-grade credit rating. As of year-end, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.3x and our weighted average coupon was 4%. With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question comes from Pamela Kaufman from Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
Hi, good morning.
Mac Livingston:
Pam, this is Mac. Just one quick second before your question. We understand that there were some technical issues associated with the webcast. So I want to apologize for the disruption to those listening there. We will work to get our recorded remarks up on the website as soon as possible. Thanks, and go ahead, Pam.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thanks. So how would you characterize the current competitive environment within the cigarette category. The deep discount segment continues to invest in price and is gaining share. Given the headwinds that you highlighted that are impacting the tobacco consumer, how are you thinking about managing price gaps versus the discount segment? And are you prioritizing stabilizing Marlboro market share? Thanks
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Pamela, and thanks for your question. I think I would start with Marlboro's share. I mean when you look at Marlboro's share performance over the past eight quarters, it has been stable. So you can look at kind of this period in the pandemic to pre-pandemic levels and you see Marlboro has remained strong throughout that period. I think when we went through the pandemic, though, there were several macroeconomic tailwinds. So - and we've mentioned them before. There was lower consumer mobility, there is higher government stimulus payments in what we believe led to increased smoking occasions. And when you think about that, that led to increase or higher discretionary income for competitive adult smokers who then traded up to Marlboro. And I think that really showed the continued appeal of premium brands. Now as we start seeing some of those pressures you're referring to put pressure or decrease the discretionary spend of some of our consumers, you see the more price-sensitive adult smokers moving back to discount brands. And I think that would be expected. Look, we believe that the current discount share, to your point, is at the high end of historical norms. But we do expect quarterly fluctuations in share to continue until the economy begins to stabilize from the pandemic. I think overall, from a pricing standpoint, and I'll be careful not to talk about future pricing. You recall the four factors that we look at to make pricing decisions
Pamela Kaufman:
Thanks. That's helpful. And then just a question on the smokeless segment. Profitability and margins have been under pressure in smokeless over the last several quarters. Can you elaborate on the investments you're making there? And how are you thinking about smokeless investments and profitability in 2022?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it's a great question. I appreciate you raising it. I think when you think about it Pamela, we had talked, as we progressed through 2020 that we were really focused on getting past the manufacturing capacity constraints. And that would allow us to really start engaging with the consumer -- so now being in the 117,000 stores, you want to have a nice look at retail. You're going to want to engage with smokers with equity messages that go to the consumer, whether through direct mail or through digital. And then because you're introducing a new category and is growing, you want to have some disruption at retail, both with the look and with some price off and so you have price promotions that take place in the marketplace. So those are the major factors that as we're investing on it and it's growing impact the overall oral tobacco category from a margin standpoint. I know you would like me to say this is the exact date we expect to end that. But I think as you think about a growing category and on! certainly participated in that growth, we're going to invest appropriately as that category continues to grow.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
Hi, thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog:
I have a question on your '22 EPS guidance. You mentioned you plan to balance earnings growth and shareholder returns with investments towards your vision, which includes increased smoke-free product R&D. But at the same time, you don't expect to have IQOS in the market. So two questions. One, can you give us a sense of your investment spend in R&D? For instance, will your investments in this effort be elevated above '21 levels? And then two, can you share maybe just a little bit more with us about your 2030 vision and how the development of an additional smoke-free product could fit into your portfolio. I'd be curious to hear what that product might look like, when it might be ready to test? Just be curious to hear if it's closed or is this still a year or two out? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Bonnie. And it was pretty packed up, so I'll try to unpack it. But if I miss any point, please follow up. I think when you think about guidance overall, right, we run a range of scenarios across all the categories we participate in. And there are always puts and takes in those various scenarios. And it's important to remember we’re mindful that we're still in a pandemic environment and that we want to ensure we have the flexibility to adapt to our adult consumers as we progress through the year and they're making different choices. As far as the investment areas, I know you would like us to say this is exactly when we're going to bring this product and here's what it looks like. I think it's important to step back and think about where we're investing. And it really is marketplace activities for support of the products we have in the marketplace. It's also investing in the digital consumer engagement, being able to get closer to the consumer on a one-on-one basis, and we'll share more details with that at CAGNY. And then it's not just research and development, it's also the regulatory preparations that take place. So for instance, in 2022, we're preparing the MRTP application for the on! portfolio. And so there's a vast array of investments. It does include product development in R&D. And so that's kind of how we look at 2022 and how we're moving forward. I think when you look at the vision, even if you look overseas where they're able to innovate much quicker, you see the consumer constantly moving from a technology standpoint through the various options that are available to them. And so we want to make sure that we're investing appropriately to stay at pace or actually be ahead of where the consumer is going to be as we progress through time. And so that's how we think about product development in the -- from a fitting into the portfolio to address that point of your question.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. That's helpful. And then just speaking or thinking about your 2030 vision, could you give us maybe an update on that? And I just keep thinking about any guidepost you guys could share with us that you expect to hit for this business or your business, I should say, in the next three to five years? What ultimately is a realistic target in terms of converting your business to non-combustible products. And then in the context of that and executing on this vision, curious to hear if you're open to M&A to accelerate this? Or are you going to continue to remain focused on things that you develop in-house?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think from a guidepost standpoint, and we get this question often, is I think it's a bit different in the U.S. where we're predominantly based versus overseas. Remember, everything has to go through the FDA authorization process and really the entire harm reduction opportunities in front of us in the U.S. And so I think as we progress and we start seeing some of the FDA authorizations come through, we'll be sure to share some guideposts on how we're thinking about measuring going forward. I know that's what you and the investors want. It's just that we need to get through the FDA authorization process and understand how they're going to think about and authorize these products going forward and then we can provide some guideposts to be measured against in that regard. I think overall, though, and we've shared this before, call it, roughly half to slightly over half of adult consumer -- cigarette consumers in the U.S. prefer or would desire an alternative product that satisfies them and has the potential to reduce the risk associated with using nicotine through time. So we want to consistently provide those consumers the products and transition them to the smoke-free products. From a standpoint of the 2030 vision, I mentioned that the entire RRP opportunity is in front of us. And what we feel like we have is we have the infrastructure to support that, whether you think about government affairs or regulatory affairs, a top-notch sales force, we have product development. We engage with the largest number of U.S. adult tobacco consumers through our premium brands and our digital capabilities. And if you step back and we have strong core businesses that produce lots of cash that allow us to fund our investments, and I believe if you ask consumers, we have credibility with the adult tobacco consumer. So your last question, if I recall them all correctly, was M&A versus internal. Look, we monitor what's taking place around the world, and we're extremely focused on our organic development, staying close to the consumer as we continue with that process.
Operator:
Our next question is from Owen Bennett of Jefferies.
Owen Bennett:
I just had a question around some of the details on the automatic renewal of the IQOS agreement. And firstly, did you need to hit certain market share levels by April 24? And then two, it sounds like from what you're saying, you believe you already hit these levels in 2020. And would that be right? It just sounds like if that's the case, the share targets were set really low. And then three, if you believe you've already hit these share targets, what exactly is being renegotiated with PMI currently?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I appreciate it. I want to appreciate your question. Look, we disclosed what we felt like we could from a standpoint. Remember, we have cross-confidentiality in place with PMI. And we disclosed that in 2020 because we thought it was important for you guys and the investors to know that there were performance objectives in the contract. We feel like we have hit those as far as the extension or renegotiation that's taken place. Look, we described that we feel like we hit on PMIs in this agreement with that and their mechanisms in the contract to be able to settle any disputes that take place. You can see with any 2 parties that have an agreement, there can be disputes or disagreements. And that was all contemplated in the agreement.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Vivien Azer of Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
I really appreciate the commentary on the health of the consumer and some of the normalization in terms of down trading behavior. Billy, as I kind of think back to the evolution of the Marlboro franchise over the last decade, there was a big push, if I recall correctly, coming out of the last recession to balance out the price points that were available for Marlboro. So can you just remind us where special blend fits into the total Marlboro franchise? And I recognize your revenue growth management tools have gotten a lot more sophisticated over the last decade. But the role that you envision special blend playing to the extent that we see sustained down trading?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Vivi. I think when you think about the entire Marlboro portfolio, remember that services 4 out of every 10 consumers that go to the marketplace, you have consumers that Marlboro brand appeals to them. And I mentioned it earlier, those price-sensitive consumers, it still appeal to them. And when they have extra discretionary income, they want to trade up. Across the portfolio with the tools that you mentioned, we can provide the consumer a safe landing with various parts of the portfolio where they can stay in the Marlboro franchise. And we see that's better for them than actually losing them or having them trade out and try to win them back later. And so we have the advanced analytics. We have this robust data coming in from retail. And now with those tools, we're trying to drive it closer and closer to the individual consumer. And we feel like we have the tools that allow us to navigate this type of pressure that the consumer is under. I think it's important, though, to remember that our goal is not to grow Marlboro share through time, it's to stabilize it so that we can grow profitability through time. And so that's where our overall goal is specific to the Marlboro franchise, and then we use the tools in the portfolio to be able to do that.
Vivien Azer:
That's really helpful. And then just my follow-up question is on the on! franchise. Clearly, the promotional investments that you guys are making are translating to market share gains, which is great to see. I was wondering if you could offer any color on where you see on!’s promotional spending relative to the broader competitive backdrop?
Billy Gifford:
Sure. I think when you think about the promotional spending there, look, we had to get past manufacturing capacity constraints. So we certainly had a competitor get out that much earlier than us. And so we want to be a bit disruptive in the marketplace to disrupt the consumers from their normal purchasing behaviour in the category or if they're thinking about the category. The same tools that you think agree with that we have in the cigarette category. We're using those tools in this space as well. So we're constantly using those tools with the data we're getting from retail, with the feedback we're getting from consumers and understanding what's effective and what's not effective. And so we'll be continually adjusting those as we move through time to improve the share growth and through -- once we get past the investment period to get increased margins profitability.
Operator:
Our next question is from Chris Growe of Stifel.
Chris Growe:
I had a question, first of all, and this is not even in the situation in the last kind of 1.5 years or 2, but you did not provide a volume outlook for the year, for example, for your cigarette business or smokeless business overall. And I'm just curious, not maybe getting to a number, but just to understand, is that volatility in volume maybe the uncertainty around that, kind of the main factor that could push your EPS around within that range, is the worst volume conclusion for the year? What likely drives the lower end of your EPS range and a better volume performance or at the higher end? Is that 1 of the main driving factors of your guidance range for the year as you see it?
Billy Gifford:
I think when you think about cigarettes, certainly an important factor in that, but there are always puts and takes that take place in the P&L. And so as I mentioned, Chris, we run a range of scenarios. And in those scenarios, we have puts and takes that take place across the various categories. Certainly, cigarette volume is 1 of the factors, but it's not the only factor.
Chris Growe:
Okay. And then I just had a question in relation to Marlboro and share. There's been a few questions on that front. But just 1 thing I was curious about is that some of your price increases over the last year, 1.5 years, maybe last year, you've set aside some funds that you were going to put towards investing behind Marlboro. I guess I just want to get a sense of, based on the performance and largely flat performance in share, even though it's been up and down. I guess, are those funds being utilized as you expected behind Marlboro? Do you see the need based on some of the growth in deep discount share, for example, to continue to increase that rate of spending behind Marlboro?
Billy Gifford:
It's something -- we'll certainly monitor, Chris, going through time. And we talked about, look, we're mindful of keeping pace and understanding how we need to adapt to our consumers across all of our categories. I think I go back to the comment I made to Vivian. Our goal with Marlboro is not to grow share through time, its to have stable share and be able to grow profitability. And I think you see we were very successful with that in 2020.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Callum Elliott of Bernstein.
Callum Elliott:
Look, Billy, I appreciate the color on the dispute resolution process with PM. My question is, do you guys have contingency plans in place in heated tobacco in the event that, that dispute resolution process goes against you and the licensing agreement isn't extended beyond 2024.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I'm not going to go into the hypothetical there, Callum. I think you can appreciate that we feel like we can resolve it. It was pre-thought-out with the agreement that the mechanism is in place to settle disputes. And so we'll go through that process. But we're in continued discussions with PMI.
Callum Elliott:
Okay. And just a quick follow-up, on Vivien's question about sort of promotional environment in nicotine pouches. I guess my question is, are you concerned at all that, that heavy promotional environment for on! might damage the brand equity, and selling today at a huge discount to the market leader, as you mentioned, are you not at all concerned that, that might impact the long-term brand perception here?
Billy Gifford:
We are not. If you think about -- even if you go back to the cigarette category, when we launch Chews and whether it be on Marlboro or any of our other brands, you always had introductory price promotions. It's important to remember when our consumer is going to and C-stores is 1 of the primary locations they go to, they're making that decision in 10 to 15 seconds. It's the snap of an eye almost. And so when you think about that, you want to disrupt them at retail, not only with price promotions, but with a great look at retail or disrupt them either in their mailbox or their e-mail box through digital. And so we're going to use all of those tools available to us. We feel like we have strong equity and building strong equity with on!.
Operator:
At this time, we'd be happy to open up the queue for our media representatives. We'll take a question from Jennifer Maloney of the Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney :
I wanted to follow up on Bonnie's question about your R&D and your 2030 vision. Can you speak specifically to your -- how e-vapor fits into your 2030 vision and RP portfolio?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think from an R&D portfolio, I'll take that first. You'll remember our agreement with JUUL precludes us from being able to do any organic development in e-vapor. So that's 1 category that we do not have any organic development going on. If you think about the 2030 vision, the way we think about the e-vapor category, certainly as the entire category is going through the FDA authorization process as they make decisions, the e-vapor category will be in a bit of transition. But we believe the e-vapor category and JUUL included in that can play an important role in the U.S. in harm reduction and the future of harm reduction. So when you think about that, e-vapor can play an important role, but it's going to be in a bit of a transition as it goes through the FDA authorization process.
Jennifer Maloney :
You only have a minority stake in JUUL. So do you -- I mean, what's your strategy there for this 2030 vision in the e-vapor category. It’s just you'll only be able to participate in the e-vapor category through your minority stake in JUUL? Or do you have some other strategy there?
Billy Gifford:
There -- our only participation in the e-vapor category would be through our minority investment in JUUL. And I think if you step back and see the success JUUL’s had in the marketplace with converting adult smokers to the e-vapor category, you’ll see that it still has the lead in market share in the U.S. with adult tobacco consumers.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back to Mac Livingston for closing comments.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Leo, and thank you all for joining us. I'll remind you, once again, we're going to work quickly to get the recording of the remarks back up on the webcast for those who were disrupted there. So apologies for that again. If you have any other further questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thanks
Operator:
This does conclude today's call. You may now disconnect your lines. And everyone, have a great day.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2021 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Katherine. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO, and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's Third Quarter and first 9 months business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics, and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2020. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers, 21 years of age or older. With that, I will turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford :
Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. In the third quarter, Altria continued to balance maximizing profitability from our core tobacco businesses, with investing to realize that vision of responsibly leading the transition of adult smokers to a smoke-free future. Our tobacco businesses performed well against difficult year-over-year comparisons. And we're encouraged by the significant retail share growth from on! in the third quarter. We also continued to reward shareholders with a strong and growing dividend, and announced today the expansion of our share repurchase program to $3.5 billion. Both Altria and the tobacco industry are evolving, and with transformation comes opportunity. It also brings uncertainty and adversity, including the recently International Trade Commission decision related to IQOS. We knew our journey to a smoke-free future would not be easy, but our determined and talented employees have demonstrated they are up to the challenge. The pursuit of our vision is not based on a single brand or product platform. Our vision is built on our understanding of tobacco consumers, our capabilities as a leading tobacco Company and a portfolio of smoke-free brands and product formats. We've made progress through the performance of our current smoke-free portfolio and advancements in regulatory sciences, data analytics and a robust consumer engagement system. Our tobacco businesses remained strong and our vision keeps us focused and guides us forward. Let's now turn to our business results. Altria grew its third quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share, 2.5%, despite a backdrop of challenging comparisons and unfavorable year-over-year trade inventory movements. For the first nine months of the year, adjusted EPS grew 4.5%, primarily driven by the strong financial performance of our tobacco businesses and higher ABI adjusted earnings. Our smokable products segment continues to generate significant cash and return to shareholders -- to return to shareholders and fuel our vision. Third quarter adjusted operating Company's income decreased 2.2%, reflecting the impact of trade inventory swings, but grew 2.6% to $7.9 billion for the first 9 months, while Marlboro remained strong. The all-tobacco products segment continued to deliver robust profit margins, while Copenhagen maintained its leadership position. In all nicotine pouches, we have accelerated investment behind Helix and believe that the on! portfolio is well-positioned in this fast-growing category. We're advancing the sophistication of our analytics across our companies. The Helix team uses this capability to evaluate the impact of promotional tools on tobacco consumers, and understand what actions effectively drive trial, repeat purchase and adoption. on! retail share of all tobacco increased a full share point sequentially, reaching 3 share points for the third quarter and nearly tripling since the end of last year. These strong results were driven by increased smoker trial and repeat purchase from existing on! consumers. We're excited by the performance of on! during the first 9 months of the year, and believe consumer insights, disruptive retail executions, and consumer engagement will continue to fuel its growth. Last year, we submitted pre -market tobacco applications to the FDA for the entire on! portfolio. While the FDA has made substantial progress in reviewing millions of PMTAs, they received our applications for on! are still pending. A week ago, the FDA authorized the marketing of four of our all-nicotine products, Verve Discs and Verve Chews, in the flavors of Green Mint and Blue Mint, and determined that the marketing of these products is appropriate for the protection of public health. This is the first flavored product authorization issued by the FDA for newly deemed tobacco products. While our Verve products are not currently in market, we believe the learnings we gained from developing our Verve submission were critical in following compelling and timely submissions for on! which we completed in only 9 months after closing the on! transaction. We're also actively working on modified risk tobacco product applications for on!. We believe an MRTP would be an impactful point of differentiation for the brand, and an important tool in educating and ultimately transitioning smokers to less harmful products. In e-vapor we estimate that the total category volume increased 17% versus the year-ago period and increased 2% sequentially as a result of continued elevated levels of competitive activity. While we had hoped for clarity on the categories outlook as manufacturers received PMTA decisions, the future of e-vapor is still uncertain. For most of the leading e-vapor products, the applications are still pending, including those submitted by JUUL. Moving forward, we expect e-vapor buying trends to be influenced by regulatory activity, which has the potential to impact the degree of cross category movement. Recently, the CDC published an update from their national youth tobacco survey. While caution is warranted when comparing results year-over-year, due to the impact of the pandemic on the survey’s methodology underaged e-vapor use, including use of Juul, shows continued signs of decline. We're encouraged by the progress, but more still needs to be done and we remain committed to continuing our work to drive down underage use. Turning to heated tobacco. The IQOS team continue to refine it's go-to-market approach for new and innovative products. Across the four states were IQOS is available, total Marlboro HeatSticks volume continued to grow with repeat purchase accounting for approximately 85% of sales. According to IQOS consumers, our IQOS experts program played a significant role in their repeat purchases. The program offers smokers personalized support and encouragement through consistent tailored engagements. In the Northern Virginia lead market device penetrations, as a percent of the smoker population, continued to exceed the performance of previous roll outs. In the last four weeks of the third quarter, Marlboro HeatSticks achieved a cigarette category retail share of 1.8% in Northern Virginia stores with distributions. As we mentioned earlier, the International Trade Commission recently imposed an importation ban, and issued cease and desist orders on IQOS, Marlboro HeatSticks, and infringing components. We're disappointed in this decision as IQOS is the only inhalable tobacco product to have received FDA authorization as a modified risk tobacco product. The ITC's importation ban will make the product unavailable for all consumers who have switched to IQOS, reduce the options for over 20 million smokers looking for alternatives to cigarettes, and ultimately is detrimental to public health. We continue to believe the plaintiff’s patents are invalid, and that IQOS did not infringe on those patents. The ITC's decision is currently under 60-day review by the administration's U.S. Trade Representative. In the event that the administration does not reject the decision, we are preparing to comply with the order. We've been focused on our contingency plans surrounding sales and distribution and had been in communication with PMI on their domestic manufacturing plans. We view the ITC's decision as a frustrating obstacle, but we're not deterred from the work required to realize our vision. We remain committed to the heated tobacco category and believe it can play an important role in transitioning smokers to a smoke-free future. Going forward, we expect to apply the knowledge and capabilities we gained from introducing and responsibly marketing a brand-new product category. For example, we've learned how to blend behavioral science, data insights, and consumer engagement to support smokers on their smoke-free journey; leverage MRTPs to educate consumers on the benefits of reduced risk products, and established a robust post-market surveillance system as required to monitor FDA authorized products. I'm optimistic about the future for tobacco harm reduction in the U.S. We have an unprecedented opportunity to lead the way in shifting millions of smokers away from cigarettes, if we follow the science and foster innovation with the support of reasonable regulation. Let's turn to our financial outlook. We are raising the lower end of our full-year 2021 guidance and now expect to deliver adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.58 to $4.62. This range represents a growth rate of 5% to 6% from a $4.36 base in 2020. I'd also like to welcome Marjorie Connelly and Matt Davis to our Board of Directors, as announced this morning. They bring significant combined expertise in operations, business strategy, consumer insights, and public policy, and will be tremendous assets as we pursue our vision. I will now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our results.
Sal Mancuso :
Thanks, Billy. I'd like to begin by discussing the macroeconomic factors we believe influence the tobacco consumer. We believe rising gas prices, inflation and the conclusion of COVID-19 relief programs led to a decrease in disposable income versus the previous quarter. In addition, increased consumer mobility offered consumers more options for their discretionary spending. At retail, trends were unchanged sequentially. We estimate that compared to pre -pandemic levels, the number of tobacco consumer trips to the store continued to be depressed. But tobacco expenditures per trip remained elevated. We continue to monitor tobacco consumer behaviors and we will provide our insights on the factors impacting those behaviors as we move forward. Moving to our businesses. The smokeable product segment expanded its adjusted OCI margins to 58%, an increase of a half percentage point for the third quarter in more than one percentage point for the first 9 months. This performance was supported by strong net price realization of 11.3% in the third quarter, and 9.2% for the first 9 months. Smokable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 12.9% in the third quarter, an 8% in the first 8 to 9 months. We believe reported volumes reflect an absolute wholesale inventory swing of 1.5 billion sticks. As wholesalers bill inventory in the third quarter of last year, but depleted inventories this quarter. When adjusted for trade inventory movement, calendar differences and other factors. Domestic cigarette volumes for the third quarter and the first 9 months declined by an estimated 7% and 5% respectively. At the industry level, we estimate that adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by 6.5% in the third quarter, and by 5% in the first 9 months. Marlboro remains strong and resilient despite a widening price gaps in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. In the third quarter, Marlboro retail share of the total cigarette category was unchanged, both sequentially and versus the year-ago period at 43.2%. And in discount, total segment retail share in the third quarter continued to fluctuate, increasing 0.3 percentage points sequentially to 25.3%. In cigars, we continue to believe Black & Mild is the most profitable brand in the large mass machine-made cigar category. Reported cigar shipment volume increased by 2.7% in the first nine months of 2021. Turning to the oral tobacco products segment, adjusted OCI and adjusted OCI margins contracted for the third quarter in first nine months, primarily due to increased spending behind on and shifting mix between MSP and Oral Nicotine Pouch es. We're pleased with the strong overall margins for the segment and continue to be excited about the opportunity for on, in the Oral Nicotine Pouch category. Total reported oral tobacco products segment volume decreased by 3.8% for the Third Quarter and by 0.5% for the first 9 months. When adjusted for trade inventory movements in calendar differences, segment volume decreased by an estimated 2.5% for the third quarter and 0.5% for the first 9 months. Oral tobacco products segment retail share for the third quarter was sequentially unchanged as strong share gains for On offset declines in MSP. The segment declined 2.2 percentage points versus the third quarter last year due to the continued growth of the Oral Nicotine Pouch category. Looking ahead, we're monitoring several factors as we move towards the end of this year and into the next. Many industries are experiencing rising input costs and supply chain disruptions. Thanks to the foresight and hard work of our procurement team, we're successfully managing through these issues without significant impact to-date. For Altria, we foresee modest inflation in the year ahead. This could have some impact on the input costs and the inflation adjustment to our master settlement agreement payments. However, our Tobacco businesses remained strong and we are confident in our ability to manage through short-term economic challenges. As a reminder, we contemplate an array of scenarios in our financial forecasts and intend to incorporate these factors into our 2022 EPS guidance, which we expect to provide in January. Turning to our investment in ABI. The five-year lockup on our restricted share expired earlier this month. We've been an investor in the beer category since 1970 and our original investment of $230 million has served us extremely well over the past half century. In fact, since 2003 our beer investment has served as a diverse income stream that contributed over $12 billion of adjusted equity earnings, contributed over $10 billion of cash from both dividends and 2016 merger proceeds and strengthen our Balance Sheet. We've performed rigorous analysis regarding the ABI investment. First, as part of the preparation of our third quarter financial statements, and second, in anticipation of the expiration of the lockup. In preparing our third quarter financials, we assessed the latest outlook for ABI's business under the applicable accounting guidance, and recorded an impairment to the asset While we continue to believe ABI share price will recover, we now do not expect it to fully recover to it carrying value as soon as previously expected. As a result, we have written [Indiscernible] investment in ABI down to at September 30th market value of $11.2 billion. Regarding our decisions around the [indiscernible] we view our ABI stake as a financial investment and our goal is to maximize the long-term value of the investment for our shareholders. We consider several factors as we analyze the investment, including the strategic rationale of continuing as a long-term investor in the beer category. ABI share price, which has declined by more than 30% since October 2019 due in large part to impacts of the COVID pandemic, our expectations of ABI's business, alternative uses of capital, and tax considerations. We have determined that selling our ABI investment at this time would not maximize long-term shareholder value. Therefore, we continue to plan to maintain our ABI investment. We continue to have confidence in ABI's long-term strategies, premium global brands, experienced management team, and capability to successfully navigate near-term challenges. We will continue to monitor and evaluate market conditions and the analytical factors mentioned previously on a regular basis, consistent with our goal of maximizing the long-term value of this investment for our shareholders. We remain committed to creating long-term shareholder value through the pursuit of our vision and our significant capital returns, which we demonstrated in the third quarter, by paying approximately $1.6 billion in dividends and raising the dividend for the 56 times in 52 years. Selling St. Michelle Wine Estates and expanding our share repurchase program from $2 billion to $3.5 billion and repurchasing 6.7 million shares totaling $322 million. We have approximately $2.5 billion remaining under the newly expanded $3.5 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by December 31, 2022. With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory, and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Once again, as a reminder, [Operator Instructions]. Investors, Analysts, and Media Representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Pamela Kaufman :
Hi. Good morning.
Billy Gifford :
Good morning, Pamela.
Pamela Kaufman :
I had a question on pricing, so PM USA net pricing growth was very strong this quarter. Can you discuss the levers that you're managing to drive net price realization and how much of the growth in net pricing has been driven by your strategy around L&M versus how you're managing Marlboro and what you're doing differently from an RGM perspective?
Billy Gifford :
Thanks for the question, Pamela. I think when you think about pricing, it's important to remember our price realization has really two major components. The first component, everybody is all aware of it and talks about regularly which are list price increases, and that's across our portfolios. When you think about the other component, and we've referred to it before as the investments we've made around advanced analytics and the amount of data we get from retail. And with that advanced analytics, some companies refer to it as revenue growth management but it's really taken the retail promotions we put in the marketplace for consumers and really making it more efficient and as effective, or maybe at times more effective than without the Revenue Growth Management. So that's allowing us to increase the price realization. I think that's what you experienced through the quarter and through the first 9 months. And from a standpoint of L&M, look, we've increased our profitability on L&M. We have ceded some share there, but we are a premium focused Company. We liked the results that we've experienced in L&M. And I think you see what the advanced analytics model has been rock solid for, call it now, 5 to 6 quarters.
Pamela Kaufman :
Thanks. As a follow-up, how are you thinking about the balance between generating price realization in light of some of the macro headwinds that you highlighted that might weigh on tobacco consumers? And it looks like sure --
Billy Gifford :
I'm sorry, Pamela. Finish up.
Pamela Kaufman :
Just related to that, it looks like the discount segment experienced stronger share gains this quarter driven by the deep discount segment. So are you seeing any increasing propensity of down trading in the current environment?
Billy Gifford :
I think if you look at the slides we provided, I will take the discount question first, you can see discount bounces around from time-to-time. It's still in the range where it has been for quite a while. I think you see the propensity for consumers to still vastly value premium brands over discount brands. From a standpoint of how we think about pricing, and I'll be careful not to talk about future pricing, I mentioned before there are several factors we think about. We think about the health of our brands, the demographics that are associated with our brands, are we being relevant across all adult cohorts. And we think about the economic health of our consumers. That is a factor that we factor in and then we think about overall corporate objectives. And so we looked about how we make decisions there. I think when you think about the overall strategy that we apply to the combustible segment, it's really about maximizing profitability over the long term while making appropriate investments and balancing investments in Marlboro with investments in the non-combustible portfolio.
Pamela Kaufman :
Thank you.
Billy Gifford :
Thank you.
Pamela Kaufman :
I will pass it on.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Vivien Azer with Cowen. Your line is open.
Vivien Azer :
Hi, thank you. Good morning.
Billy Gifford :
Good morning, Vivian.
Vivien Azer :
So in terms of the consumer, I think you guys rightly pointed out gas prices as key consideration in terms of watching out to the health of your core tobacco consumers. I recognize we’re possibly early cycle inflation in inflation in gas. But I'm curious, as you look at the various regions in the United States, obviously very different gas price dynamics, anything to call out in terms of underlying initial response from consumers higher gas prices?
Billy Gifford :
Nothing there to call out, Vivien, you're right, we actually look at it down to the state level and below that; and I would say nothing really to call out specifically different from what you're seeing on a national base.
Vivien Azer :
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you for that. Moving to the oral Tobacco segment, I was wondering if you could unpack the components of the 430 basis points decline in EBIT margin mix, versus the higher level of promo in on!. And to follow up on that, given the current levels of profitability in that segment, but you're focused on on!, do we think that this kind of 68% level is the right one or should we expect a recovery to more normalized rates like we've seen over the last few years? Thank you.
Billy Gifford :
Thank you Vivien. I think when you think about our strategy in all tobacco, you can see what we are doing as we have great margins in traditional MST, we continue to lead in that category and we're making great strides in the on!, in the novel oral space, and we're very pleased with what we saw with the results. Once we got past manufacturing capacity constraints the progress we've been able to make with their sales force and the Helix team. It's important to remember that you're disrupting the consumer and introducing them to a new category that's grown extensively. And so we're not just investing in price promotion, we're investing in making it a premium brand and really engaging with the consumer both digitally as well as with equity images so that they understand the nature of the brand. So you're disrupting that retail and then you're reinforcing it with equity through time. So, that's how we're approaching the all-tobacco category. We believe on! through time, we can achieve Tobacco - like margins, but certainly we are in the investment phase right now.
Vivien Azer :
Okay. Thank you very much.
Billy Gifford :
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Owen Bennett with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Owen Bennett:
Hope all is well. And first question is, just going back to the pricing and the dynamics with the growing deep discount segment and the price gaps with the bottom of the market. So it does appear right now, the industry share loss to deep discount is coming from discount. But at the same time with the aggressive pricing we've seen the price gap between the top and bottom of the market is now at 38%. And this is historically how constant around 30%, so we are seeing quite a sharp increase there. Is there any risk if this continues to pick up than the premium segment also starts to lose share, i.e. I guess, what I'm trying to get, is there a tipping point where you think that price gap becomes too sizable?
Billy Gifford :
Yes, it's something we certainly monitor Owen, thank you for the question, and it's something that we supply to you guys the overall national price gap. But we look at it, back to Vivien 's question, at a much lower level. I think when you think about that price gap, I would point to the performance on Marlboro through time, being able to achieve that price realization and I mentioned advanced analytics before and what's that team has been able to do in making the retail promotions we put in the marketplace effective and more efficient. And so you see the steadiness of Marlboro through time, you see the price realization where we -- what we were able to achieve for -- through the first 9 months. But it's certainly something we monitor, but we feel good about the position that our tobacco businesses are at.
Owen Bennett:
Okay, fine. And then second question, just wanted to come back to the ABI stake and some of the thought process around that, and specifically potentially creating more value from holding onto that versus potentially owning JUUL outright. So I mean, JUUL got the potential to be hypergrowth, especially if it gets traction internationally. It's also a segment that’s cannibalizing cigarette, so incentive to own all the economics and then arguably as well it can also boost your ESG credentials. Then on the flip side, you've got ABI arguably [ex] (ph) growth, not cannibalizing your cigarette, and it does nothing for ESG credentials. And then you've got potentially the corporate tax rate increasing soon into the [tops] (ph) charge on sale could increase. So I was just thinking, given those dynamics -- I mean, why do you think ABI can potentially offer more long-term value for shareholders than owning JUUL outright could?
Sal Mancuso :
Good morning, Owen. This is Sal. So there's a lot to unpack in that question. Let me start by saying, as you know, we don't comment on hypotheticals or speculation around M&A. So let me move on to the ABI question which you've touched on a lot of the analytical factors I talked about in my opening remarks. At the center of the analysis though, is really thinking about what's best for the shareholder over the long term. At this time, we believe holding the asset is what's best for the shareholder over the long term. As I said earlier, we'll continue to monitor the asset and perform the detailed analysis that we perform as we do with all capital allocation decisions and we'll continue to do that moving forward.
Billy Gifford:
I think the only thing I would add, Owen, is you can take up and you've been following us for quite a while. It's no different than the analysis we went through with SAB. We look at the asset, we look at that, go through the analytics and doesn't make sense to hold the asset or reallocate that capital somewhere else. And so that's something now that the restriction has gone, that will do on a regular basis and we'll update you at the appropriate times.
Owen Bennett:
Great. Thanks, gents. Appreciate the questions.
Sal Mancuso :
Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll go now to Gaurav Jain with Barclays. Your line is open.
Gaurav Jain :
Hi, good morning. Good morning, Billy. Good morning Sal.
Sal Mancuso :
Good morning.
Gaurav Jain :
I've 3 questions. So the first question one is on other questions which have been asked earlier on the Marlboro's price premium versus lowest effective. So what I understand is that BATLD position Lucky Strike below [Indiscernible] and then used to compete against [Indiscernible] at the equivalent price and now you do not actually have a brand which is competing against Lucky Strike, which is why we are seeing these 20% plus volume declines on the LNN side of things. So do you think you also need to reposition a brand to compete more effectively against Lucky Strike?
Billy Gifford :
Yeah. Gaurav, I would remind you how we think about the combustible category and it's really about maximizing profitability over the long term, and then balancing investments in Marlboro because we're premium focus with investments in the noncombustible portfolio that we have, and so that's how we -- the overall strategy for the combustible segment. I would point to the performance of Marlboro again, of 5 to 6 quarters our RAC steady performance, and the price realization we've been able to achieve, both from list price as well as the advanced analytics and applying that to the marketplace. So we feel good about where we're positioned, as far as other companies they can make decisions independent of us.
Gaurav Jain :
Sure. Thank you. The second question I have is on component shortages. So we have how [Indiscernible] battling a lot of industries. Have you seen any shortages and bad thing that e-cigarette market, which could help the cigarette volumes in the next few quarters. And we also had one of your competitors talk yesterday about shortages in some cigar components. So are you seeing any shortages in cigars as well?
Billy Gifford :
Yeah. Nothing to point out, Gaurav, that would be material. We've had -- from a standpoint of our procurement team, they stay on top of this. They are able to work around whether it's storms, or shortages, or supply chains. But we haven't experienced any shortages either from a labor standpoint or from a product input standpoint. So we're extremely pleased with what our procurement and our hourly workforce has been able to achieve through this process.
Gaurav Jain :
Sure. And the last question on the MSA calculation and you will realize that because of inflation, next year there could be higher adjustment. So could you just remind us how that calculation works and how inflation plays a role in it.
Sal Mancuso :
Sure, Gaurav. Good morning. This is Sal. The MSA does have an inflation factor associated with the calculation of the payments. It has a floor of 3% and anything above 3% impacts that costs. Now, it's a point in time calculation. So at CPIUS of December 31st for the current year versus the prior year. We have had times where we've been above the 3%. It's something we are used to managing and we've managed in the past. I pointed it out only because it is a differential aspect of inflation for the Tobacco business versus other CPG industries.
Gaurav Jain :
Okay. Thanks a lot, Sal.
Sal Mancuso :
Sure.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal. Your line is open.
Jennifer Maloney:
Hi, good morning.
Billy Gifford :
Good morning, Jennifer.
Jennifer Maloney:
I just wanted to talk about consumer behaviors. Could you talk a little bit about why you're seeing a drop in industry cigarette volumes of 6.5%? Is it because people are spending more on travel and gas? Is it because they're out and about more, and not spending as much time at home?
Billy Gifford :
Yeah, it's a great question. I would point to the mobility of our consumer and we talked about the extra nicotine occasions that we believe were added last year because of the stay-at-home practices. They -- and so as they've increased their mobility and you pointed to both factors that out about more and they're using their discretionary income on other things. The only other thing I would highlight that you did not highlight is gas prices and we know gas prices affect our consumers. But these are characteristics of the consumer. We know how to navigate through and I think you've seen we've been successful in the past, but those would be the major factors I would highlight.
Jennifer Maloney:
And are our e-cigarette sales a factor? Are you seeing continued downturn in e-cigarette sales as affecting -- is that easing somewhat and hurting cigarette sales?
Billy Gifford :
Yeah. I think if you refer to -- we try to provide a decomposition of industry volume. And so we do it on a 12-month moving. And so as of the end of the third quarter on a 12-month moving, remember, in secular decline, which is people smoking less or quitting smoking or moving to other categories, that's always contained about 1% of people leaving cigarettes for other categories. And then if we see additional cross-category movement beyond that, we highlight that. And you see that was up 0.2%. And so you can see about 1.2% of consumers leaving cigarettes for whatever other category they choose.
Jennifer Maloney:
Okay, thanks very much.
Billy Gifford :
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Patrick Folan with Redburn. Your line is open. And Patrick, please check the mute function on your phone. Patrick, please check the mute function on your phone. We're unable to hear you at this time.
Billy Gifford :
Katherine, maybe we move on and come back to Patrick.
Operator:
We have no further questions in queue. At this time I would like to turn the call back to Mac Livingston for closing comments.
Mac Livingston:
Thank you all for joining us. Please contact the Investor Relations team if you have further questions. Thanks and have a great day.
Operator:
This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to Altria Group 2021 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks Christelle. Good morning and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO and Sal Mancuso, our CFO will discuss Altria's second quarter and first half business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, and quarterly metrics are all available on our website at Altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2020. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks Mac. Good morning and thank you for joining us. Altria delivered outstanding results in the second quarter, thanks to the continued strength of our tobacco businesses and the hard work of our highly talented employees. Our teams have continued their commitment to moving beyond smoking, by deepening their understanding of tobacco consumer preferences, expanding the awareness and availability of our smoke-free product portfolio, and amplifying our voice on harm reduction within the scientific and public health communities. Their passion in pursuit of our vision gives me even greater confidence that we can responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to a smoke-free future. Let's now turn to our business results. Altria grew its second quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share of 12.8% to $1.23, primarily through the strength of our tobacco businesses. The Smokeable Products segment continued to deliver on its strategy of maximizing profitability and combustibles, while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro, with funding the growth of smoke-free products. Marlboro continued to lead the cigarette category, while second quarter adjusted operating company's income grew 11%. For the first half, the segment generated adjusted OCI growth of 5.3%. In the oral tobacco product segment, Copenhagen continued to lead the MST category and delivered strong profit performance. The oral tobacco product segment grew adjusted OCI by 3.5% in the second quarter and by 3.3% for the first half as strength in MST more than offset investments in support on!. The oral nicotine pouch category continue to grow and Helix remained focused on expanding capacity, broadening distribution, and a driving awareness and trial. The team has successfully achieved unconstrained manufacturing capacity for the current U.S. market and as the category grows, Felix plans to further increase on! capacity ahead of expected demand. Additionally, Helix and AGDC broadened on! retail distribution to 105,000 retail stores, which represents approximately 80% of U.S. oral tobacco volume and 70% of U.S. cigarette volume. In the second quarter, on! retail share of oral tobacco was two percentage points, up three-tenths sequentially. In a heightened competitive environment, we believe Helix has made consistent progress against its 2021 goals, having achieved unconstrained manufacturing capacity, increased distribution, and nearly doubling on! retail share over the first half. Helix deploys a broad suite of marketing tools to continue to build on! brand equity and transition smokers. At retail, Helix uses disruptive point-of-sale and trail and awareness generating promotions. Retail initiatives are complemented by one-to-one communications and digital marketing channels, which we believe providing more immersive and educational on! experience. These communications are tailored based on consumer preferences and insights to better resonate with individual smokers and dippers. Turning to heated tobacco, PM USA expanded IQOS and Marlboro HeatSticks to retail stores across Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. This four state expansion is helping PM USA garner key learnings about scaling new innovative products. Over two-thirds of U.S. cigarette volume is sold through the convenience store channel. So, we believe the ability to effectively educate smokers about the IQOS system and C stores is critical to the long-term success of the product. Although early, we're encouraged that nearly half a second quarter IQOS device sales came from convenience stores. This highlights the impact of our salesforce and their strong relationships with key retail partners. In line with our strategy to build IQOS in large metro markets, PM USA expanded IQOS and Marlboro HeatSticks to Northern Virginia, it's fourth Metro market. We believe our commercialization team continues to improve its execution as we move into new metro markets. In early Northern Virginia metro market results, device penetrations as a percent of the smoker population has surpassed the performance of the Atlanta and Charlotte rollouts. We've discussed for some time the importance of bringing a strong commercialization package to smokers to help them on their journey. In the Northern Virginia market, we have deployed our full range of flexible marketing tools, such as kiosks, mobile units, and experts. We also opened an IQOS boutique in the Tyson's Corner Mall, which is the center point for the area. We believe that favorable results in Northern Virginia reflect the strategic locations and enhanced execution within these marketing channels, the availability of the IQOS 3 device and built-up awareness from the Richmond market. We previously stated the importance of responsibility and discipline in our IQOS expansion approach. PM USA has been mindful of the pending International Trade Commission case, which may result in a ban on the importation of IQOS and Marlboro HeatSticks into the United States. Due to this uncertainty, PM USA has delayed further expansion of IQOS and Marlboro HeatSticks. Each quarter, we make progress towards our vision. As we do so, we strengthen the capabilities that we believe are necessary to effectively transition smokers to our current and future innovative product portfolio. These capabilities include a flexible manufacturing system, which allows us to quickly redeploy our highly skilled employees and existing footprint in support of smoke-free products; a robust consumer engagement system that includes enhanced data collection, a portfolio of smoker engagement tools, and our trade partner relationships; and strong regulatory capabilities, including the talent to develop compelling PMTAs for smoke-free products and the establishment of required post-market surveillance infrastructure. Tobacco harm reduction must be grounded in sound science, encouraged by reasonable regulation, and executed responsibly. We believe it's critical to have transparent and constructive dialogue about the science and evidence supporting tobacco harm reduction with all stakeholders. So far this year, we've published 10 articles in scientific journals, participated on four panels, and presented 24 posters at scientific and policy conferences. Unfortunately, not all stakeholders believe that industry participants should be part of these exchanges. Recently, a scientific organization decided to ban industry participation at its annual conference. We believe this is a mistake and that limiting the exchange of scientific research impedes tobacco harm reduction and hurt smokers looking for less harmful products. We will continue to advocate for open and inclusive dialogue among all stakeholders, which we believe is essential to addressing the significant public health opportunity in front of us. Let's now turn to guidance. With our strong financial performance in the first half, we've raised the lower end of our full year 2021 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to be in the range of $4.56 to $4.62. This range represents a growth rate of 4.5% to 6% from a $4.36 base in 2020. This updated guidance reflects continued confidence in our tobacco businesses, investment in smoke-free products, and the expected impact of the recently announced agreement to sell our Ste. Michelle Wine Estates business. I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and results.
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks Billy. In the second quarter, the consumer behaviors we've observed over the past few quarters largely continued. Although overall consumer mobility increased, workplace mobility appear to be relatively unchanged, which we believe contributed to more tobacco usage occasions during the quarter as compared to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, disposable income remained elevated, partially due to the residual effects of the third federal government stimulus package in March. At retail, we estimate that compared to pre-pandemic levels, the number of tobacco consumer trips to the store continued to be depressed, but tobacco expenditures per trip remained elevated. We are keeping a close eye on tobacco consumer behaviors, and we will continue to provide our insights on the factors impacting those behaviors as the year progresses. Moving to our businesses. The Smokeable Products segment expanded its adjusted OCI margins by 0.6 percentage points to 58.4% for the second quarter and by 1.5 percentage points to 58% for the first half. This performance was supported by PM USA's revenue growth management framework, which leverages advanced analytics to guide the strategic and efficient allocation of our promotional resources. As a result, PM USA achieved strong net price realization of 8.3% in the second quarter and 8.1% for the first half. Smokeable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes increased by 1.4% in the second quarter. For the first half, reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 5.3%. When adjusted for calendar differences, trade inventory movements and other factors, second quarter and first half domestic cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 4.5% and 4%, respectively. At the industry level, we estimate that adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by 5% in the second quarter and by 4% in the first half. Marlboro sustained a strong retail performance demonstrated in recent quarters and benefited from the overall strength of the premium segment in the second quarter. Marlboro's second quarter retail share of the total cigarette category was up one-tenth sequentially to 43.2% and up five-tenth versus the year ago period. In discount, total segment retail share in the second quarter increased one-tenth year-over-year but declined three-tenth sequentially to 25%. Sequential share losses in both branded and deep discount products drove the contraction as consumers benefited from the federal government's third stimulus package and continued heightened promotional spending among competitive premium brands. We continue to observe some elevated promotional activity within the branded discount segment during the second quarter. And as a result, Marlboro's price gap to the lowest effective price cigarette remained elevated at 37%. In cigars, Middleton continues to perform well and Black & Mild maintained its leadership position within the profitable tipped cigar segment. Reported cigar shipment volume increased by 9.6% in the first half. Turning to the oral tobacco products segment. Segment adjusted OCI margins decreased to 71.7% for the second quarter and to 71.9% for the first half. We expect oral tobacco products margins to be impacted by increased investments behind on! and shifting mix between MST and oral nicotine pouches. We remain extremely pleased with the strong overall margins for the segment. Total reported oral tobacco products segment volume increased by 1.8% and by 1.2% for the second quarter and first half, respectively. The segment's volume growth was driven by on!, which more than offset a moderate decline in MST volumes. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences, segment volume increased by an estimated 1% for the second quarter and 0.5% for the first half. Oral tobacco products segment retail share for the second quarter declined 2.2 percentage points versus the prior year and three-tenth sequentially to 47.8% due to the continued growth of the oral nicotine pouch category. As Billy stated, Copenhagen maintained its leadership position in the MST category. And we continue to work diligently to execute our plans to transition smokers to on! In e-vapor, total estimated volumes in the second quarter increased 15% versus a year ago and 2% sequentially as a result of heightened competitive activity. The category continues to undergo a transition period as FDA prepares to make market determinations on the millions of PMTAs filed by the September 2020 statutory deadline. We continue to believe that e-vapor products can play an important role in tobacco harm reduction and that a sustainable e-vapor category will be one that consists solely of FDA-authorized products. We expect the category's long-term trajectory to be determined by regulatory decisions, legislative and tax policy and innovation that best addresses smoker and vapor preferences. In alcohol, we recorded $113 million of pretax adjusted equity earnings from ABI in the second quarter. This was an increase of approximately 15% from the year ago period and represents Altria's share of ABI's first quarter 2021 results. In wine, Ste. Michelle's second quarter adjusted OCI increased approximately 80% to $27 million. Ste. Michelle's adjusted OCI growth was primarily due to higher volumes, including from the flagship Chateau Ste. Michelle brand and luxury brand Stag’s Leap, as wine consumer preferences trended to more premium products. Three weeks ago, we announced the definitive agreement to sell our Ste. Michelle Wine Estates business in an all-cash transaction for a purchase price of approximately $1.2 billion and the assumption of certain Ste. Michelle liabilities. We expect the transaction to close in the second half of this year, and we expect to use the net proceeds for additional share repurchases, subject to approval by our Board. We believe this transaction demonstrates Altria's continued commitment to value creation for shareholders and to our vision as it allows our management team to maintain its focus on responsibly transitioning adult smokers to a smoke-free future. Ste. Michelle and its talented employees have built an outstanding portfolio of premium wine brands, and we wish them future success. And in our all other operating category, we continue to make progress on our wind-down of Philip Morris Capital Corporation. As of June 30th, the net finance assets balance was $261 million, down $59 million since the end of last year due to rents received and asset sales in the first and second quarters. We expect to continue reducing this balance in 2021 and expect to complete the PMCC wind-down by the end of 2022. Turning to our equity investment in Cronos. We recorded a pretax loss of $21 million, representing Altria's share of Cronos' first quarter results. In the second quarter, Cronos announced that it had purchased an option to acquire an ownership stake in PharmaCann of approximately 10.5% on a fully diluted basis. PharmaCann is one of the largest vertically integrated cannabis companies in the United States. The option exercise will be based upon various factors, including the status of U.S. federal cannabis legalization and regulatory approvals. In our -- in support of our investment in Cronos, we continue to advocate for a federally legal, regulated and responsible U.S. cannabis market. And we're encouraged by the current momentum towards federal legalization. Next, let's discuss capital allocation. The highly cash-generative nature of our tobacco businesses continues -- contributes to our strong balance sheet. We believe this, in turn, allows us to invest in our vision while rewarding shareholders with cash returns. We were active in the capital markets during the second quarter as we repaid $1.5 billion of notes upon maturity, paid approximately $1.6 billion in dividends and repurchased 6.6 million shares totaling $325 million. We have $1.35 billion remaining under the current authorized $2 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by June 30, 2022. Because the current program is limited to $2 billion, additional share buybacks in connection with the sale of Ste. Michelle are subject to Board approval. Moving to corporate responsibility, we disclosed several updates in the ESG section of our release this morning. These updates included following through on our commitment to transparency around Altria's workforce data and publishing our ESG data tables and a report on value chain responsibility. As a reminder, additional corporate responsibility information can be found on altria.com. With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
Hi, good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning Pamela.
Pamela Kaufman:
So, I wanted to ask about your plans to delay IQOS expansion in the U.S. until you have more clarity from the ITC. I guess what are -- it's understandable that you would delay expanding it once you -- until you have more visibility. But I guess I wanted to understand what your plans are in existing markets because it seems like you're still operating as usual there. And then can you give more detail on what your options will be if there's ultimately an adverse decision from the ITC?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Pamela. Yes, I want you to interpret the delay correctly. So the expansion markets that we are in. So the four states existing markets, including Northern Virginia, we're staying in, and we'll complete the state expansions. It was just beyond that where we had previously announced by the end of the year, we'd be in geographies representing 25% of cigarette volume. We wanted to let you guys know and our investors know that we're delaying that until we get some certainty around that. As far as plans if it should ultimately go against us, and you know the process, I'm sure you're well aware of the process that we will step through related to the actual case. But we're working closely with PMI on contingency plans. I think it's a bit too early to share the details of what those contingency plans are or could be. And so we'll share those when it's appropriate.
Pamela Kaufman:
Great. And then I wanted to ask about how you're thinking about industry growth in the second half of the year and kind of discuss the puts and takes that might influence the category relative to the performance in the first half. And in relation to that, we're seeing an inflationary pricing environment with companies across the CPG space intending on raising prices. I guess what are the implications for cigarette volumes as you think about price elasticity relative to other categories? And separately, does that, in any way, influence the ability to raise cigarette prices when you see higher prices elsewhere?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, there was a lot in that question, Pamela, so I'll try to dissect it and make sure I get all the pieces. I think when you think about -- and I refer to cigarette volume, I know you said industry volume, so I'm assuming that's what you're talking about. I mean I appreciate the fact that you recognize that we had a strong first half. I think when you think about the puts and takes or the headwinds, tailwinds, and these could go either way. I think the major factors that we're going to be watching for impact to volume are really the stay-at-home practices of our consumer. Do they decide that -- are they required by their employee to go back to the work site or do they still have stay-at-home practices? I think you've seen various news on unemployment rates and any associated stimulus. How does that play out for the remainder of the year? I think it's important to keep an eye across category movement. We know that the FDA has a lot of applications in front of them for PMTAs. So we'll see what their decisions are and how they could impact it. But most importantly, it's the consumer purchasing behavior. As you know, we believe they're adding nicotine occasions to their day. And so how do they think about that in this, whether it's a resurgent or vaccination rates or how the vaccine gets rolled out, how does that impact consumer purchasing behavior? Your question related to pricing is -- and first, I'll talk about the input side. As far as -- we really haven't seen any material inflation impact the input side of our business. As far as decisions that we take into consideration when we make pricing decisions, it's really the economic health of our consumer. How are they feeling? Right now, they still have elevated discretionary income. It's the brand strength, and you can see Marlboro's been performing extremely well, and we are very pleased with its -- the strength of that brand. And I think last and utmost is company objectives and how are we thinking about investing in our innovative product portfolios and expanding that. And we mentioned some of the investment areas earlier. So those are really the factors that go into our pricing decisions.
Pamela Kaufman:
Great. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
Thank you. Good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog:
Hi Billy. I actually wanted to circle back on the decision to delay the expansion of IQOS and maybe come at it from a different angle. I guess, first, I assume your plan stepped up spending this year will also be lowered. If so, I guess I'm surprised you weren't able to take up the high end of your EPS growth guidance range this year. So, could you maybe touch on that? And then finally, I'd like to understand how you think the delay in rolling out IQOS might impact your ability to deliver and execute on your 10-year vision to accelerate the transition of smokers to a noncombustible future.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Bonnie. So, let's deal with the guidance first. As we say all along, we run a range of scenarios when we established guidance at the beginning of the year. It's no different as we progress through the year, we run a range of scenarios. So as far as any individual category, there are always puts and takes. And so that's all incorporated in our guidance. As far as the delay, I want -- just to be clear on the delay and your question about the 10-year vision. I think when you think about the 10-year vision, it's important to step back and remember it's 10 years out. And so that's a long time. If you just take in -- where we are today and look back 10 years, whether you think about the industry or Altria itself, there's been significant change in 10 years. And so we thought it prudent to finish the expansions we were in the midst of, but to delay those and knowing that we have 10 years, and we know the consumer wants to move and we want to have the products that they want to move to. And so certainly, there could be bumps in the road, but we think we have a great plan and feel confident about achieving our 10-year vision.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. That's helpful and all fair. But just thinking about what you just mentioned and thinking about the beginning of the year, there -- as we look forward this year, there was going to be a level of stepped-up spending to kind of pivot your business. And how do we reconcile that now? I mean I guess I'd just like to understand that. Should I assume that the planned spending has been pulled back this year as you've delayed the rollout of IQOS? Or are you still continuing to spend aggressively behind it, and--
Billy Gifford:
I -- sorry, Bonnie, I didn't mean to cut you off. Yes. So, when you think about it, I appreciate the fact that you are recognizing that we can be agile in our investments. We run a range of scenarios. We're prepared for what takes place in any of our categories to be able to adjust and redeploy. And so we feel good about it. Yes, certainly, there was a level of investment in our base plan, but we run a range of scenarios around that base plan at the beginning of the year so that we're able to adjust. We have areas of the business we've mentioned previously that we were investing in. And so we feel very good about the guidance we provided today and being able to bring up the bottom end of that guidance with more certainty.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay, that makes sense. And then just wanted to clarify something else on IQOS. I know you have this agreement, of course, with Philip Morris and you shared some of those details. I think it was actually a year ago. So, I'm curious, can you share with us if you've reached 50 bps of dollar share in any of the markets where IQOS is sold, which was defined in the agreement with PM? And the reason I'm asking, because I think that was one of the areas that you needed to maintain or to get to, to maintain your exclusive distribution agreement for IQOS.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Bonnie. The answer is yes. We believe we have achieved it related to the exclusivity. We've shared that data with PMI, and that's why you saw us moving to other expansion areas.
Bonnie Herzog:
Perfect. And then final question, if I may, just on switching gears to oral tobacco. Just any color you could share with us on your strategy with promos in your oral tobacco business. I'm asking as I look at your price realization, which has stepped down, I guess, a fair amount. So, I'm wondering how big of a concern this could be in terms of sustaining any future top line growth for this business. In other words, I guess I'm wondering, are you finding that you need to promote more than anticipated to possibly drive any volume growth and/or trial?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it's a great question, Bonnie. I think when you think about our approach in novel oral, we have been behind a manufacturing capacity constraints and we've been somewhat limited. Now, that that's behind us and we'll keep it behind us as best we can, it allows us to turn our marketing and brand colleagues loose, and they can really be disruptive in the marketplace to disrupt the consumer as they're making their purchasing decisions. They can fully engage with consumers with one-to-one in digital channels. And so we look forward to being able to turn them loose, which they are now, and have them disrupting the marketplace. I think whenever you think about a new category, you have to think about there is going to be competitive activity, and we've seen it in this space. And so you're going to want to dislodge those consumers. But at some point in time, that typically settles down, even if you take it outside of tobacco. And so we feel very good about being able to achieve tobacco-like margins in the future. Right now, we're focused on consumer engagement and making them aware of our on! product in the marketplace.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. Thank you so much for that.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer with Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
Hi.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning Vivien.
Vivien Azer:
So, just one last housekeeping item on IQOS. Sorry to belabor the issue, but can you give us a sense of the anticipated timing of any kind of decision from the ITC, please?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. So, when you think about the ITC -- just to level set on where we're at in that process. So, you think about that in May, we had the administrative law judge found in favor of the two of the plaintiff's patent challenges. And so they recommended that the administrative law judge recommended the importation for ban on the IQOS system. But you saw earlier this week that the ITC accepted review of the ALJ findings and recommendations on certain issues, and that included the patent infringement claims and the scope of remedies, and they will review the benefit to public health. And so it's a bit different with the ITC. If you think about the factors around IQOS, it's the only inhalable, smoke-free product authorized by the FDA. And in authorizing IQOS, the FDA found that the product would benefit the public health. And so we would expect to have a final ITC decision in September or October. And then you remember the process after is it can be -- it goes to presidential review and that can take up to a period of 60 days after the ITC decision is final. And then any decision from the ITC can be appealed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. And so that will be the process that plays out depending on how things progress.
Vivien Azer:
That's really helpful. Thanks for that. Moving on to your Smokeable segment. You called out heightened competitive activity as being a contributor to the expanding Marlboro price gap. Seemingly, you should be fine with that given that Marlboro gained year-over-year share. But how are you thinking about kind of the durability of that to the extent that you see heightened competitive activity persist given that you do have some incremental resources at your disposal with pared back investments on IQOS? Would you be willing to reinvest?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, we think of those decisions somewhat independently, Vivien. But as far as your question specifically to Smokeable and Marlboro specifically, we're greatly pleased with the performance we've seen in Marlboro over the last four to five quarters. And when you look at the price realization that was realized in the Smokeable segment and then you look at the performance of Marlboro in that segment, we're very pleased with where we're at. And so it's something, to your point, we always monitor, but we feel good about how the strategy is playing out thus far.
Vivien Azer:
Perfect. Thanks very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.
Chris Growe:
Hi, good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning Chris.
Chris Growe:
Good morning. I just had a question for you, just a very quick one on inventory, and it was a positive this quarter. And I know you don't like to talk about kind of future inventory moves. But as you just -- if you could characterize where inventories are this quarter and any -- how that would -- you believe that, that sets in relation to where inventories have been historically?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think it's a great question, Chris. And when you look at where we're at the end of the second quarter and you look back through history, maybe it's slightly elevated for the second quarter, but it's certainly not elevated to positions we've seen wholesalers carry. It -- with the pandemic and the way it's evolved up and down, we've seen it bounce around a lot. You'll remember through time, we typically see it level out. But certainly, the pandemic has had it bounce around a bit more than what is typical.
Chris Growe:
And I missed it bouncing around -- during the pandemic, inventory rates have been higher overall. Is that fair to say than where you would expect them to be?
Billy Gifford:
I would say maybe slightly higher. I wouldn't call it out as something significant, but maybe slightly higher. I think also, wholesalers in the beginning of the pandemic as well as retailers maybe got caught short a bit on inventory because they were nervous about what the pandemic was going to do to them. I think they saw consumers, as Sal mentioned in his remarks, making larger purchases. So, I think they're taking a position to have a bit more inventory just to meet consumer demand.
Chris Growe:
Okay. And I had a second question just thinking on what your thought there. It couldn't be any more questions on IQOS. I had one more. And that just was to understand, there were a couple of markets, especially the earlier markets like Atlanta and I think you said North Carolina, where sequential share was down a little bit. You talked about moving resources to Northern Virginia. I just want to understand that concept. Meaning that in this early stage, I would expected -- have expected more overall dollars being committed and therefore, not just moving resources around. But I want to understand kind of how you looked at that and then how you redeployed resources in Northern Virginia from some of those initial markets.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I appreciate the question, Chris. And let me take a couple of things that went into that consideration. I think first and foremost, you remember, we had flexible marketing tools at our disposal, whether you consider it kiosks or mobile units. And so you move those from launch market to launch market. I think the other thing that's important to remember is we've always said we wanted to put our best commercialization foot forward. And as we got through to Charlotte, remember when we first launched Charlotte, we had the 2.4 device that did not have an MRTP authorization nor did we have authorization on 3.0. And so as you move into a market, you're going to put your best foot forward, we feel like that is the right package. And I think you've seen the results from the learnings as well as those -- both version three and the MRTP authorization in Northern Virginia. And so it doesn't mean we won't go back and relaunch in some of those markets with those added benefits to the consumer and consumer engagement, but we thought it was prudent to move that. And then the last note is as you move from densely populated areas to a fully expanded across the state, you evolve your commercialization practice. And we know to launch across the total U.S., we're going to have to have that C-store experience. And so it's perfecting that. And we feel good about -- as you saw in the -- you heard in the remarks, the amount of device sales that we had through the C-store channel. If you step back and just look in the second quarter, volume -- consumer takeaway overall volume was up 40%. And so I would consider that a great achievement.
Chris Growe:
Yes. So, really, in that regard, Billy, the most recent market, at least in this case, where you stand today, is the best representation of your selling model and we don't need to necessarily look back at other markets because of this -- you're kind of changing as you move into these new markets. Is that fair to say?
Billy Gifford:
I think that's fair to say. I don't know if I would characterize it as -- certainly, we feel like that's the best commercialization package we've had to date. I think it's too early to read and to say, okay, this is exactly what we're going to do as we go forward. We're going to continue to get learnings and evolve. But yes, the best commercialization package we've had to date is that we put in Northern Virginia.
Chris Growe:
Okay. And I did have one other quick follow-up, which is on! in oral tobacco. And just to think there -- at what point -- I think you've talked about before getting -- being -- having on! available in more stores that sell oral tobacco products being whether it's 90% or 100%. So, should we expect that to just to kind of continue to kind of build through the second half of the year now that you're unconstrained on manufacturing capacity?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think right now, you can consider us focused on really disrupting the consumer and making them aware of the qualities of on! in the marketplace, engaging with them through the one on one in digital channels. We feel good about where we're at, but we always assess the amount of stores we're in, and you'll see adjustments through time.
Chris Growe:
Okay. Thanks so much for your time.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Gaurav Jain with Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Hi, good morning Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning.
Gaurav Jain:
So, I have a couple of questions. So one is on the cigarette industry volume decomposition -- the table which is in your quarterly metrics. So the additional cost category movement is only minus 0.3% over the last 12 months. And we know that oral nicotine pouches have gained about one percentage point of share. And then based on the data you have on slide 23 of your presentation, it seems e-cigarettes have also gained one percentage point of share. So, that would imply that the cross-category movement has like -- it has significantly reduced versus what we saw in 2018, 2019. Is that a correct way of looking at this data?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. That is correct, Gaurav. When you think about it, remember, in secular decline, to your point, about 1% was cross category. And then anything above that 1% outside of secular decline of that cross category is what we call out in that decomp. And so you can see in the chart that as of 6/30/21, on a 12 months ended, it was 0.3% above that. And so that is really what is the impact to the cigarette industry from cross-category movement and it includes novel oral, it includes e-vapor. I think when you think about e-vapor, if I understand the gist of your question, really what's going to impact how e-vapor progresses in the U.S., and we believe it can play a significant role in harm reduction, is really three things. It's regulatory decisions. And you'll recall, all of the products are with the FDA for their review. It's the legislative and tax policy, how will excise taxes evolve in that space. And to Sal's earlier remarks, innovation, how will companies think about innovating in the future and applying for authorization from the FDA. So those will be the three major factors that play. But yes, it is less than what we experienced in 2019.
Gaurav Jain:
But then I guess that leads to the question that is it leading to additional consumption in nicotine and are there additional consumers coming in and where are these consumers coming from, which leads to a lot of other questions as well. So--
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think when you look at the factors underneath, whether you think about total -- the total nicotine space, and you've seen us before volume equivalized and stacked that up, historically, if you look over the past five years, down about 1%. So that would say overall consumption is still coming down, not increasing. Certainly, during the pandemic, and we've highlighted to you guys and investors is that we saw consumers add nicotine occasions to their day, which we believe was stay-at-home practices and some of those factors. And so certainly, there has been some short-term nicotine occasions added to the day. But overall, total volume when you stack up nicotine on an equivalent volume basis has still been declining.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. And if I could ask one quick follow-up on pricing. So, your key competitor is clearly pricing quite aggressively right now, which is helping you and everybody else. And your pricing realization is also quite strong, not as much as your key competitor. But I would have thought that you will be taking this benefit and investing more on the discount side of your business and stabilizing some of the volume share losses there. So, could you just help us understand how you're thinking on the discount side of things?
Billy Gifford:
Yes and I appreciate the question. I think when you step back and think about the strategy we deploy in that category, it's to maximize profitability through time while balancing investments in Marlboro and funding the future growth categories. And so that's what guides us. As far as competitive pricing and worries about what they took or who went first, those are not the factors. I really gave the factors earlier to Pamela. It's economic health of our consumer, its brand strength and company objectives. And so that's the way we think about our pricing decisions in the marketplace. Competitive actions don't factor into that. I think when you think about our pricing and look, I would say eight point -- over 8% both in the quarter and for the first half is pretty nice based on the results we've seen across the entire company here. We're pleased with that. Remember, we have two factors that come into our price realization. One is list price, which you're referring to. The other is as we implement -- and some people refer to it as revenue growth management, it's how do we become more efficient with the retail promotional dollars we have in the marketplace. And so I think you see those two factors play into our price realization.
Gaurav Jain:
Thanks a lot Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.
Michael Lavery:
Thank you. Good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning Michael.
Michael Lavery:
So, I actually still have an IQOS question, too. Can you just start by confirming for the ITC decision, would that apply to the device only? And then related to that, if it does, is there any potential for production in the U.S.? Or is that just really not -- is there not the ecosystem for that because it would be just an import ban, correct?
Billy Gifford:
That is correct. The ITC deals with importation of products. And so you're correct in that assessment. As far as -- if you read the details around the administrative law judge's decision, they made decisions on both the device and HeatSticks. And so it would apply to both. As far as contingency plans, Michael, as I stated earlier, it's a bit too early to get into the details of the contingency plans, and we'll be sure to come back to you as those are ready to be unveiled.
Michael Lavery:
Okay. Sure. And just on the device sales in C-store, obviously, just a huge jump this quarter. Can you just give a sense of some of the drivers there? Because I know for the other two quarters, they were available at least on a limited basis or at least in some areas. What's -- it's the kind of device you don't really impulse buy most likely and it's a high price point, at least in isolation. Is there -- is it driven primarily by digital engagement that sends the consumer in? Is it direct mail, paper mail? Or how do you really see this boost taking shape?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it's a great question, Michael and it's something that we are very proud about. I think it speaks to the strength of our AGDC, our sales force and the relationships they build at retail. So, when you think about it, it includes those other channels, one-to-one, digital, regular paper mail, it includes all of those. Our team is doing a great job of engaging with the adult smoker. But I think when you think about what AGDC has been able to do is really look at our retailers think about how to display the product at retail. To your point, our consumers are more of a 10 to 15-second decision. How do you disrupt them at retail where they're making that purchase decision and really give them the guided trial. For instance, they built relationships with retail clerks that were smokers previously and walked them through this transition from smoking cigarettes to using the heated tobacco product. And so I think when you think about that, now you have the retail clerk can speak from personal experience to smokers to also disrupt their purchasing decisions. And so it's really still about the guided trial. It is about engagement through those channels, but it's disrupting them right at the point of purchase.
Michael Lavery:
Okay. Really interesting. Thanks. And just one more on on! Can you give a sense of usage rates? And specifically, what I'm curious about is how much a smoker who switches maintains a similar usage rate? Does it go up or down? And I assume, obviously, there's people who completely switch and some dual usage and sort of a progression there. But do you have a sense of some of the consumer dynamics around that?
Billy Gifford:
It's certainly something that we're monitoring and we're trying to monitor it as close as we can on an individual-by-individual basis. Because to your point, people are at different places in their journey. And so I think it's too early to get into here is exactly the usage rate of somebody that comes from cigarette versus somebody that comes from dipping, but it's certainly something we're tracking and understanding because you've got to meet the consumer where they're at in their journey and help them to continue that transition over. And so again, I completely understand your question, but I think it's just too early to get into the details.
Michael Lavery:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And your last question comes from the line of Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.
Tiffany Au:
Hi, this is Tiffany Au for Priya. Thanks for taking our question. We're wondering, given the recent movement in the rate backdrop, how are you thinking about the opportunities to practically address and refinance some of your maturities over the next two to three years?
Billy Gifford:
I'm sorry, I missed the end of that question. Could you repeat it? I apologize.
Tiffany Au:
Definitely, yes. Given the recent movement in the rate backdrop, how are you guys thinking about opportunities to proactively address and refinance some of your maturities over the next two to three years?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think I was able to hear it. I think when you think about it, we're going to assess those market conditions. We're certainly not going to give guidance exactly what we're going to do with any maturities. But we look at the market conditions when we see maturities. And Sal would tell you that with our cash-generative businesses, it gives us flexibility when we have maturities upcoming based on what the market conditions are and how we would assess those.
Tiffany Au:
Thank you.
Sal Mancuso:
Yes, I agree with Billy and I would point out that we have taken a very balanced approach to capital allocation when you look at 2021, including we did execute an opportunistic liability management transaction earlier in the year that allowed us to extend maturities on low-interest debt while managing our maturity towers.
Tiffany Au:
Thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
At this time, I would like to turn the call back to Mac Livingston for closing comments.
Mac Livingston:
Thank you all for joining us. Please contact the Investor Relations team if you have further questions. Have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you all for joining us. Please contact the Investor Relations team if you have further questions. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to Altria Group 2021 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Stephanie. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO, and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's first quarter business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation and quarterly metrics are all available on our website at Altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2019. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We're off to a strong start to the year and believe our businesses are on track to deliver against their full-year plans. Against a challenging comparison, our tobacco businesses performed well in the first quarter and we continue to make progress advancing our non-combustible product portfolio. This morning, we announced another important milestone in Altria's journey to move beyond smoking. We now have full global ownership of own oral nicotine pouches as we recently closed transactions to acquire the remaining 20% global interest. We're excited about the opportunity we have with on to convert smokers, and we have talented teams supporting the global plans for the brand. Before discussing our first quarter results in more detail, we would like to honor the memory of Tom Farrell, our late Chairman of the Board. Tom served 13 distinguished years on our Board, offered valuable insights and guidance during his tenure, and was a true visionary. We will miss his leadership, contributions and friendship. The Board will appoint a new chair at its meeting following our Annual Shareholders Meeting in May. Let's now turn to our first quarter results. Our first quarter adjusted diluted EPS declined 1.8%, primarily driven by unfavorable timing of interest expense and a higher adjusted income tax rate. In the Smokeable Product’s segment, we continue to execute our strategy of maximizing profitability and combustibles, while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of non-combustible products. Segment adjusted OCI margins expanded and Marlboro continued its retail share momentum from the back half of 2020. For volumes, reported Smokeable segment domestic cigarette volume declined 12% in the first quarter, reflecting year-over-year trade inventory movements, one fewer shipping day and other factors. When adjusted for these factors, cigarette volume declined by an estimated 3.5%. We believe that in the first quarter of 2020, wholesalers built inventories by approximately 900 million units, driven in part by COVID-19 dynamics, compared with a depletion of approximately 300 million units in the first quarter of 2021. At the industry level, we estimate that first quarter adjusted domestic cigarette volume declined 2%. Looking at smoker retail dynamics, we estimated that total cigarette trips in the first quarter remain below pre-pandemic levels. Also, estimated expenditures per trip remained elevated when compared to pre-pandemic levels and were steady sequentially. We're continuing to monitor the impacts from external factors on tobacco consumer purchasing patterns and behavior. In March, the federal government passed a third stimulus package. An increasing number of people became vaccinated and consumer mobility improved sharply. We're keeping a close eye on the tobacco consumer and we will continue to provide our insights on the underlying factors as the year progresses. Moving to our non-combustible products. We are pleased to now have full ownership of on! oral nicotine pouches globally. We completed transactions in December and April to acquire the remaining 20% of the Global on! business for approximately $250 million. When we made the initial 80% acquisition in 2019, the oral nicotine pouch category in the U.S. was rapidly growing off of a small base. Subsequently, on! nicotine pouch growth has exceeded our original estimates. In the first quarter of 2021, we estimate that retail share for on! nicotine pouches was approximately 13% of the total oral tobacco category, double its share in the year ago period. We expect continued growth from the on! nicotine pouch products, and estimate the category volume in the U.S. will grow at a compounded annual growth rate of approximately 25% over the next five years. Since 2019, Helix, supported by the enterprise, significantly increased on! manufacturing capacity, broadened retail distribution, grew tobacco consumer awareness and followed PMTAs for the entire product portfolio. Helix achieved that annualized manufacturing capacity of 50 million cans by the end of last year And as of the end of the first quarter, on! was sold in approximately 93,000 stores. In the U.S. market, on!'s momentum continued. In the first quarter, on! share of the total oral tobacco category grew significantly to 1.7%. On a 12-month moving basis, in-store selling and providing point-of-sale data, on!'s retail share was 3.1%, an increase of seven tenths from the 2020 full-year share. Going forward, we intend to report on! share of the total U.S. oral tobacco category as Helix expects to be in stores covering 90% of the industry's oral tobacco volume by midyear. Our primary focus continues to be on increasing on!'s growth in the U.S. Internationally, we see potential to strengthen on! in the Swedish market. We also see longer-term prospects in Europe to expand on! and gain consumer feedback on potential non-combustible products for the U.S. To explore these additional opportunities, we have expanded the international on! team. We believe on! presents a compelling non-combustible alternative for smokers, and we look forward to supporting their conversion journey. Moving to e-vapor. We estimate the total category volume increased 24% versus the year ago period. As a reminder, in Q1 2020, the FDA restricted the sales of all flavored e-vapor products among pod systems with the exception of tobacco and menthol. Sequentially, we estimate that the category volume increased 7% as competitive marketplace activity continued. As a result of these dynamics, JUUL's first quarter retail share of the total e-vapor category decreased to 33%. We continue to believe that a responsible e-vapor category consisting solely of FDA authorized products can play an important role in tobacco harm reduction. As for our JUUL investment, the FTC trial is now scheduled for June of this year and we remain committed to vigorously defending our investment. In heated tobacco, PM USA is continuing to expand IQOS and Marlboro HeatSticks. Beginning this month, HeatSticks are available in retail stores statewide across Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.) Marlboro HeatSticks retail volume and share continue to grow in the first quarter. In Atlanta stores with distribution, Marlboro HeatSticks retail share of the cigarette category was 1.1%, an increase of two-tenths sequentially; and in Charlotte, HeatSticks retail share was 1%, an increase of three-tenths sequentially. Last month PM USA began selling the IQOS 3 device which offers a longer battery life and faster recharging as compared to the 2.4 version. The new device is being offered through device and HeatStick bundles and through the lending program which has been effective at generating trial and dropping purchase. We're encouraged to see that many consumers are upgrading their 2.4 devices representing approximately 25% of all IQOS 3 device sales in the first quarter. Along with geographic expansion, PM USA is increasing the use of its digital platforms like marvel.com and getiqcos.com to engage with smokers and communicate the benefits of IQOS, including the MRTP claim on the IQOS 2.4 system. On model.com IQOS content is now available nationwide. Smokers can sign up to receive communications and be notified when an IQOS is available in their area. PM USA is also using its Marlboro rewards program to drive IQOS awareness and value delivery. Smokers can earn mobile rewards points by learning about IQOS and can also redeem their points for discounts on the IQOS device. In June PM USA plans to open IQOS boutique in the Tyson's Corner Mall which is a center point for the highly populated Northern Virginia metro area outside of Washington D.C. As a reminder, PM USA plans to expand IQOS into three additional metro markets throughout the year and to expand the availability of Marlboro HeatSticks to geographies covering approximately 25% a U.S. cigarette volume by year end. We're making progress and driving awareness and availability of on! and IQOS while investing in future innovative non-combustible products and we continue to acquire more tobacco consumer insights to inform our strategies to actively transition smokers to our non-combustible portfolio. Our smokeable products segment continues to support our vision generating significant cash that can be invested in non-combustible products and returned to shareholders. Turning to our financial outlook. We reaffirm our 2021 guidance to deliver adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.49 to $4.62. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 3% to 6% from a $4.36 base in 2020. The guidance includes continued investments to support the transition of adult smokers to a non-combustible future. We will continue to monitor various factors that could impact our guidance. Our employees continue to drive the success of our businesses. They've risen to the challenge together to deliver results and are supporting each other and their communities. Over the past years the challenges associated with the pandemic have been compounded by the continued social injustice and inequities that black and brown Americans still face every day and the Asian American community is hurting as violent and hateful attacks on Asian skyrocketed. We condemn any form of hatred and discrimination against any person. To our Asian, black and brown employees we will continue to stand with you and we stand for you. We recently released our report on supporting our people and communities which details the many ways, we're making progress enhancing our culture and positively impacting our communities. It is part of a series of corporate responsibility progress reports that we're issuing this year, and it is available on altria.com. I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on our first quarter results.
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks Billy. I echo your sentiments and to our employees thank you for all you do. Moving to our results. Our tobacco businesses continue to perform well in the first quarter. The smokeable products segment delivered over $2.3 billion in adjusted OCI and expanded adjusted OCI margins by 2.2 percentage points to 57.5%. PM USA's revenue growth management framework supported the segment's strong net price realization of 8% for the quarter. We continue to be pleased with Marlboro's performance and category leadership. In the first quarter Marlboro's retail share was 43.1% and increase of four tenths versus prior year. We believe that Marlboro is continuing to benefit from smoker preferences for familiar products during disruptive times, and is lapping the year ago comparison quarter, where we observed the older consumers coming back to cigarettes from e-vapor. In the first quarter, Marlboro's price gap to the lowest effective price cigarette increased to 37% primarily driven by heavy competitive promotional activity in the branded discount segment. Despite this activity, branded discount share declined by four tenths in the first quarter as deep discount gain share. The total discount segment retail share was 25.3% an increase of one tenth versus the year ago period. In cigars, Black & Mild continued its long-standing leadership in the profitable tip cigar segment. Middleton's reported cigar shipment volume increase over 11% in the first quarter. Turning to non-combustibles. Oral tobacco products segment adjusted OCI grew by 3.1% and adjusted OCI margins declined by 0.9 percentage points to 72.1%. Adjusted OCI results were driven primarily by higher pricing partially offset by higher investments behind on! Total reported oral tobacco product segment volume increased 0.6% driven by on! When adjusted for trade inventory movements, calendar differences and other factors segment volume increased by an estimated 0.5%. First quarter retail share for the oral tobacco product segment was 48.1%. down 2.3 percentage points due to the continued growth of oral nicotine pouches. Copenhagen continued to be the leading MST brand and on! gain traction in the oral nicotine pouches. In alcohol, St. Michels first quarter adjusted OCI increased approximately 46% to $19 million driven primarily by higher pricing and lower costs. And in beer, we recorded $190 million of adjusted equity earnings in the first quarter which was unchanged from the year ago period and represents our fair share of API's fourth quarter of 2020 results. Moving to our equity investment in Cronos. We recorded and adjusted loss of $27 million representing Altria's share of Cronos's fourth quarter 2020 results. We continue to support our investment in Cronos by advocating for a federally legal regulated and responsible U.S. cannabis market. We joined the recently launched coalition for cannabis policy, education and regulation. This coalition is comprised of members across diverse industries and public policy experts who plan to inform the development of comprehensive cannabis policy that prevents underage use, advances science, creates quality and safety standards, and addresses social inequity. And finally, on capital allocation. We paid approximately $1.6 billion in dividends and repurchased approximately 6.9 million shares totaling $325 million in the first quarter. We have approximately $1.7 billion remaining under the currently authorized $2 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete by June 30, 2022. Our balance sheet remains strong and as of the end of the first quarter, our debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.5 times. In the first quarter, we executed a series of transactions to take advantage of favorable market conditions to adjust our debt maturity profile and extend the weighted average maturity of our debt. We issued new long-term notes totaling $5.5 billion and repurchased over $5 billion in outstanding long-term notes. In May, we expect to retire $1.5 billion of notes coming due with available cash. With that we'll wrap up and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled. I'll remind you that today's earnings release in our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
Good morning. Thanks for the question. I wanted to see if you could comment on what you're seeing with respect to smoker behavior as things begin to reopen, and how you're thinking about the industry volume performance throughout 2021? Do you expect to see elevated consumption and cigarettes per day continue throughout this year?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. good morning, Pamela. Thanks for the question. You asked a good one because the market is very fluid as we mentioned in our remarks. I think when you look at the first quarter, and we provided the 12-month moving decomp, you can see that we still have somewhat of a tailwind and we believe as we believe that the end of last year that is the consumer stay-at-home practices as they add nicotine occasions to their day. Certainly, as we progress forward, we highlighted that we are seeing mobility for our consumers increased significantly. But then you also have the offsets. You have the government stimulus that just came out and we'll see how the consumer thinks about that as the mobility has increased and what other areas of discretionary spend, they could use that stimulus towards. So certainly, through the first quarter, we saw a continuance. Even though it was a tough comp, a continuance of what we saw at the end of last year. I think it remains to be seen what trends the consumer has picked up during the COVID pandemic that will remain and what will revert back to and I'll use your phrase to pre-pandemic or normal levels that they had in place prior to the pandemic. But thanks for the question.
Pamela Kaufman:
And also, obviously, regulation is top of mind for investors, given all of the headlines in recent weeks. Can you discuss your view of the current regulatory backdrop and what you might be anticipating from the FDA? And then separately, your thoughts on the FET proposal from last week?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think when you think about the regulatory framework, the two topics that have been in the headlines and look, we expect to have continued headline news in the tobacco industry as you have a new administration that tends to take place. But those just take them in turn if you think about menthol. The FDA has been considering this for years. And when you step back from it and you really think about it, we have a common goal, which is to transition the adult cigarette consumer to a non-combustible future. Where we disagree is prohibition just doesn't work. It has unintended consequences, and criminalizing menthol has significant consequences. We think a better approach is to have an established marketplace of FDA authorized non-combustible products. We've only heard what you've heard. So certainly, whatever the FDA announces, we’ll review what the FDA announces and we’ll engage and continue to focus on the science and evidence of what would be a multi-year process. I think when you think about lowered nicotine and cigarettes, it's very similar. It's something they've been considering for years. We know they're running studies related to this. Again, we don't believe prohibition works because it has so many unintended consequences. The better approach is to have that established portfolio of FDA authorized non-combustible products. In addition to that, we don't think it's practical or feasible from a standpoint of what's been suggested. And so when you look at overall the science and evidence, and you can see the comments that we submitted to the FDA as they were considering these previously, there are significant hurdles there from a science and evidence base that it has the impact that they have suggested. From an FET standpoint, I think it remains to be seen. There hasn't been a lot of discussion, as you mentioned, it was a bit of headline news last week. When you step back from the specifics, it's something that's been introduced before and it didn't get very far. I think when you think about some of the statements that President Biden has made about not wanting to raise taxes on individuals making less than 400,000 a year, excise tax increase runs counter to that. I just remind you, we have an excellent government affair. Team is ready to engage on all of these topics and our regulatory affairs team as well. So we're ready. But I would caution that we will see, we believe continued headline news.
Q – Pamela Kaufman:
Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Vivien Azer with Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
Hi, good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Vivien.
Vivien Azer:
Thank you very much for the more detailed outlook in terms of your growth expectations for the modern oral category. I'm hoping to expand on that that five-year CAGR outlook. And just understand what your underlying assumptions are in terms of cross category engagement and if you can offer any detail around how you're thinking about competitive reduce risk categories? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. Thanks for the question, Vivien. I think when you think about modern oral, it's a very exciting category. We're extremely excited to now have 100% of the economics of on!, both in the U.S. and on a global basis. When you think about the novel oral, I think it's very intuitive that it will interact with the adult dipper from the traditional MST. That consumer is used to putting things in the mouth I think what has us so excited about on! is its engagement with the adult cigarette consumer. And so, as we do always, we run various scenarios. I think certainly, you can see the adult dipper converting to it and it depends on how successful we are engaging with the adult cigarette consumer of how big that category can get through time. So we're extremely excited and we'll be very excited to get past the manufacturing capacity constraint, which we expect it to by midyear. I think from a competitive standpoint, you can expect that in new categories as volume grows, the various manufacturers that are participating in the category are trying to capture consumers and have them choose their products and brands. Certainly through time, I think all companies are in it for profitability. So there will be some competitive activities as volume grows and consumers are at play. And then you would expect for a return towards profitability.
Vivien Azer:
That's really helpful. Thanks. And well, perhaps maybe the cigarette – cost category cigarette movement is a little bit more nascent relative to dip. Does the migration from cigarette smokers into the modern oral or novel oral category over index to menthol smokers?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I don't have those factors in front of me, Vivien. I think when you think about it, certainly, we've seen it and we tried to have some of this available in previous presentations. It tends to have a higher than normal from the MST category interaction with the female cigarette consumer because they just don't appreciate putting tobacco in their mouth. And so it's certainly over indexes to that a bit compared to MST. But from a standpoint of that interaction, I think, right now it's too early to tell and it's very small when you've tried to diagnose who's coming over from the cigarette category.
Vivien Azer:
Understood. If I could just squeeze one last one, and it's about the tax framing for the HeatSticks in the United States. Can you just walk us through like what mechanisms would be necessary for the HeatSticks not to be taxed as a cigarette?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think the biggest one I would highlight, Vivien, is the activity that our government affairs team has been able to secure now and seven states and with a different definition of HeatSticks in the state of Virginia, so a total of eight. And that is that a product that has a designation of MRTP coming out of the FDA that they have authorized it to have that claim has a step function down and excise taxes in seven states and again the different definition in the state of Virginia. So I think that's going to be the best mechanism of any reduced risk product is those that have the designation of MRTP being authorized by the FDA.
Vivien Azer:
Thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel.
Chris Growe:
Hi, good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Chris.
Chris Growe:
So Billy, I heard your commentary before about the transition in the consumer and reduced risk products and as a backdrop for maybe perhaps the underlying factors in regulation. I guess I'm curious by is if you think about the products that the FDA has approved so far, there's reduced risk products has been two of them and it feels like they need to have a larger stable of products and products the consumers aware of before they could ever really implement significant regulation at the risk of creating unintended consequences. That's obviously my opinion. But I just thought to get your thoughts on that and I guess with that backdrop, does that influence or define the timetable the FDA has to pursue this regulation. They've got a lot more work to do, it seems like on approving new products before they move forward with regulation?
Billy Gifford:
So we would agree with your opinion, Chris, that that's the appropriate way to do it is you remember, I call it roughly half of conventional cigarette consumers are looking for a non-combustible product that satisfies them. And certainly something that would reduce risks through time. And so certainly focusing on having a robust portfolio of non-combustible products that are authorized by the FDA and then eventually receive an MRTP that cigarette consumers will move. They just need those products that satisfy them and meet their needs and so certainly add to your point prohibition tends to be fraught with unintended consequences that can take place based on prohibition.
Chris Growe:
And then, just one other question. I know, you're pricing over the last few months later last year, it's a little different from some of your competitors especially in the premium side. And I'm just curious, as you look at retail today, is there been any meaningful change in price gaps? I know we always look at it versus the lowest price product in the market. But I'm talking even amongst the kind of the premium brands. Have you seen any real deviation in the price gaps in those products Marlboro versus other products?
Billy Gifford:
Yes nothing that our highlight, Chris. We make our pricing decisions independent, I think when you look at price realization in the first quarter of 8%, that's pretty substantial. And it shows in the results of the company, Marlboro is rock solid. You mentioned the price gap to lowest that was really driven by a major manufacturer and being very competitive in the branded discount category and we highlighted that it didn't seem to gain a lot of traction. So you always have a little movement through time and in various periods that you look at, but nothing that I would highlight that's substantial.
Chris Growe:
Thank you for your time today.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog:
Good morning. I actually wanted to circle back on your oral tobacco business just looking at the performance over the last several quarters and year’s volume growth really has remained negative. So I guess I'm trying to understand ultimately how incremental do you anticipate on! can be for you? I guess I'm wondering why we haven't maybe seen more of a lift on your total oral tobacco volume yet. Has this been more of a capacity constraint issue in the last few quarters or has the cannibalization been greater maybe than you anticipated? So that would be helpful if we could just hear some color on that. And then because purchase on outright how should we think about the potential global opportunity for that business? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thanks for the questions Bonnie, and I'll try to take them in turn, but if I miss one follow back up. I think when you think about the growth in the category certainly we had a competitor had a great head start on us. We've seen significant growth in the category. We have been constrained from a capacity and manufacturing and so we look to be passed out at midyear. And then we can have it in the stores we wanted to be in engaged with the consumer the way we would like to engage with the consumer. I think for the upside from a total standpoint of growth I think we're excited about on! because not only is it engaging with the adult dipper but as I mentioned, also engaging with the adult smoker. So the more successful we are with that you can see the size of the consumer base that you're able to engage with. I think your question related to international. It's important to remember that on! already had a presence internationally. So we highlighted in our remarks we're going to certainly pay attention to where it's at in market, make sure that we have the right look and the right products in the marketplace, introduced products that are in the pipeline through time and then we'll look at what other opportunities we have and we've increased the international team, supplementing what was already existing with some Altria employees to get consumer insights, both for the international market but as well as to get consumer insights for future products in the U.S.
Bonnie Herzog:
That's helpful. That's what I was thinking that could be a nice opportunity. I did want to ask also, if I could on IQOS and MRT in the marketing plan, as it relates to that. I think you touched on this a bit, but I just wanted to see if there's anything more you could share on really how you're marketing or communicating with consumers given the fact that IQOS does have the MRTP I think you even mentioned last quarter that you've started to do some of this in certain markets. So love to hear any feedback on that in terms of how consumers have responded? Has it helped to drive trial or conversion in some of those markets? I think that would be helpful. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. Thanks for the question, Bonnie. Yes it's still a bit early yet. But certainly, we're looking to engage with the consumer both at retail through guided trials, through the HeatSticks at sea stores. But just as importantly, and that was part of our investments we highlighted at the beginning of the year is investing in what we would consider industry leading consumer engagement system and really being able to engage with the consumer digitally so that we can connect with the consumer if you think about it, not only when they're in the store, but from a 360 view of when they want to be engaged with. And that's what we're really on the path to do. I think from the standpoint of highlighting what the claim does is certainly in research it showed that the consumer once they understood the claim that was there is that they were more inclined to both engage with the product and understand it as well as try the product. So we'll have more to share as we move through the year.
Bonnie Herzog:
That definitely makes sense and would be great. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Priya Ohri Gupta with Barclays.
Priya Ohri Gupta:
I was hoping that we could just talk a little bit about your elevated cash balance and how we should think about that trending through the year given the various puts and takes understanding that you've already identified an intent to repay that main maturity that you have coming up. But are there other sorts of pieces that we should be mindful of as we look out? And where do you expect to land that cash balance as we get into 2022? Thank you.
A – Sal Mancuso:
Good morning Priya. This is Sal and thank you for the question. At the end of the first quarter, you did see an elevated cash balance. As I stated in my opening remarks and you talked, you spoke to we do plan on paying the debt coming due with cash available. I'll also remind you of some rather large payments we have post the first quarter which include our master settlement agreement payment, our quarterly taxes, and our dividend. So that cash begins to get depleted in April and May as we make those payments. And of course we still have our share buyback program in place.
Priya Ohri Gupta:
Great, thank you so much.
A – Sal Mancuso:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Owen Bennett with Jefferies.
Owen Bennett:
Morning, hope you all are well.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning Owen.
Owen Bennett:
So I wanted to follow up on a comment by PM USA recent results that plans to submit a PMTA for e-vapor in the U.S. at some point. And to me, I mean, it does appear clear that we will be returning to a global competitive environment going forward. So I was just wondering, how did this make you think about the need to have full control of e-vapor business in the U.S. or indeed globally? And then link to this especially now you're expanding globally, how are you thinking about the need to have elements into tobacco products on a global basis? Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, thanks for the question Owen and I'll be careful not to talk about anything from merger acquisition or anything in the future. I think the way we think about it is we are primarily U.S. focus, because we have all of our infrastructure, sales force, relationships with retailers, and wholesalers are all primarily U.S. focus. And so that will be our focus of getting those consumers in their conversion journey from combustible to non-combustible. That will be our primary focus but the learnings that we have, and you mentioned modern oral the learnings that we have in the conversion journey that consumers take is very similar to consumers around the world. And so we certainly want to pay attention to that, and participate that in that when it's appropriate. I think from a standpoint of the comments made by PMI, they're probably better directed to PMI. But certainly, our primary focus is U.S. But we'll certainly seize on opportunities when appropriate around the globe.
Owen Bennett:
Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Hi, good morning. Thank you. My question is on JUUL. So your investment in JUUL is now valued at about $1.5 million and if you could just remind us that is the value falls below 10%, which will be about $1.3 billion you will be out of the non-compete clause of the JUUL. So how should one think of the valuation that you are now ascribing to JUUL?
Sal Mancuso:
Thank you for the question. This is Sal. First let me just say when we do our valuation analysis that is independent of any agreement we have as a pertains to the JUUL's ownership. You are correct that if the valuation were to drop below 10% of the original investment which is slightly below $1.3 billion, we would have an option as it relates to our non-compete. But with that option comes some other minority investor rights we have. So it is not an automatic trigger. It is something that we as a management team would obviously have to analyze and discuss.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. Thank you. My second question is on the oral tobacco market growth where you are saying that for the next five years the market will grow at 25% CAGR. And if I look at just the six-month data that you share, it seems to be progressively decelerating over the last nine months. Is there any seasonality in the business or is it just becoming bigger and bigger so law of large numbers is applying or how should we think of these deceleration in oral tobacco market growth?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think when you look at that what you're seeing is you're exactly right the larger the base gets certainly from a mathematic standpoint the growth rate reduces. I would remind you when we show oral tobacco, that's the total category. So that's MST and a novel oral pouches. And so you've got a total look at that growth of the category over the last six months. So you're going to have some cannibalization of traditional, more smokeless tobacco as novel oral pouches grow. But you're also correct as I mentioned just as the base gets larger, on novel oral, the growth rate slows.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure, if I could just squeeze in one last question. Look that 10-year vision is to responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to a non-combustible future, which requires a lot of regulatory support and regulators are right now planning a menthol cigarette ban process again which you would be opposing but would you be more supportive of some of these initiators if at the same time a regulatory pathway is created that helps you achieve your vision?
Billy Gifford:
Certainly we're looking for a regulatory pathway that helps us achieve the vision. You heard my earlier remarks on an outright prohibition whether it be menthol or great reduction in nicotine in cigarettes. We believe having that portfolio of non-combustible that's authorized by the FDA and then eventually through the MRTP process is a much better pathway because the consumer that uses conventional cigarettes has already shown an inclination that they want to transition and so we believe we can get there with the right products and with the insights we have on the consumer. Certainly having a regulatory pathway that allows that to happen in the right order makes perfect sense to us.
Gaurav Jain:
Brilliant. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.
Michael Lavery:
Good morning. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Michael.
Michael Lavery:
Just wanted to come back to IQOS you mentioned how with your digital capabilities and website you've got the ability now for adult smokers to receive a notice when IQOS is available in their area. We've seen online chats and things comments lots of people outside the current launch markets who've asked how to get them. So this makes a lot of sense. Can you give us a sense of what response you've had so far and if and how much that might steer where you choose to expand in kind of next year in what order?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it's a bit early, Michael. Certainly, we've announced the areas that we're expanding to certainly across the four states and then Northern Virginia and then three additional metro markets, which we haven't discussed what they are. And so certainly it's going to be informed by the consumer and informed by where we believe we can get the heavy foot traffic. Just to remind you we want to watch initially in a densely populated area and then grow from that once you have a foothold grow from that across states. And so certainly we're going to be influenced by the consumer and the insights we have on the consumers both from them and what we've seen in the existing markets to inform where we go next.
Michael Lavery:
That's helpful. And just one more on IQOS you mentioned that Marlboro rewards can be redeemed for discounts on the IQOS device certainly this seems like it could help build momentum and some trial. But certainly could risk a little bit more cannibalization. How do you balance those two? You certainly have a lot of incremental momentum already in the markets you've given some color on that. Can you just give us some of the thinking here as simple as getting a bigger push even if it might mean a little bit of cannibalization or what's the right way to think about some of that strategy?
Billy Gifford:
Certainly, Michael, we always have incrementality in mind from a total profitability standpoint, but I think when you look at the vision, we know that our conventional cigarette consumers want to move and we want to now proactively look at moving them. Certainly incrementality and the various ways we go to market and we assess that for incrementality to see where we can really reach competitive consumers. But we don't want to ignore our consumers either. We know they want to move and so we want to reach out when they're ready to move and have them stay in our portfolio of products. And so that's the fine balance. But certainly at retail and the way we reach out to consumers we assess where we can get incrementality to the greatest extent.
Michael Lavery:
That's great. Thanks so much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Adam Spielman with Citibank.
Adam Spielman:
Thank you very much. So two questions. First of all, on IQOS in Atlanta I think you said it went to if I remember rightly, 1.1 market share in the source where you distribute it and I'm interested to know how many stores that is in Atlanta. Thank you. That's the first question.
Billy Gifford:
Yes Adam, we go to select retail chains because we want to make sure that we get great execution, the right look, and high quality because we want to learn when we have that what does it look like for consumer engagement. We haven't mentioned the specific number of stores in Atlanta but our goal even when we expand to the states is have great execution across the state and habit where each consumer regardless of where they live have access to the product to drive awareness and availability and interest. And so we may not be in every store in a certain locale but we want to make sure that the consumer in any locale has access to the product.
Adam Spielman:
And if I estimated that about in metro Atlanta IQOS have included all stores around sorry, has around 30 bits of market share would that be about right?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, we haven't done that Adam to go through that. So I'm hesitant to say that's exactly the way to go about it. The way we look at it is we take the geography by zip code and then say okay, based on that think about how the, what are the cigarette outtake and what is IQOS off take for the total geography and so I'm hesitant to try to guesstimate or give you assurance on your estimate.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Robert Rampton with UBS.
Robert Rampton:
Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. First one is just on pricing. So it's running at record levels is by moderate tax increases and I'd also argue that volumes are being more robust than maybe people expected towards the tail end of last year. Now how do you think about the tradeoff between I guess being more competitive on price versus taking that incremental margin and investing it in your efforts to transition to reduce risk? That's the question. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, thanks for the question. Robert. I would take you back to the overall strategy we have for the category which is to maximize the profitability of combustibles through time while balancing appropriate investments back into Marlboro, and funding the growth initiatives as you mentioned. And so it is a balance is something that we look at but I would agree with you. I would say 8% in the first quarter for price realization was a great result for the quarter.
Robert Rampton:
Right and then sorry, just a quick clarification on modern oral. Are you saying the category the nicotine pouch category doubled versus 1Q, 20 and that your share within that is now roughly 13%? That's a great way to understand your come.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, so we were saying novel oral the total category had a share. So the novel oral tobacco of the total old space was 13%. So the total oral of it -- yes that makes sense of the total oral space.
Robert Rampton:
Perfect, very clear. And then just a follow up on modern oral specifically on pack insert for example, Marlboro. Can you comment on their effectiveness and then how much of that are you doing and I guess the broader question is why not put a on pack ins in every pack of Marlboro?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it's certainly something that we wanted to test to learn about understand the engagement, understand the most efficient way to engage with consumers. That's just one avenue. We're looking at digital avenues and ways to engage with consumers that way. And so what you're doing with our investments is we're looking at what are the various ways that we can engage with the consumer and meet them when they're trying to make those decisions for their conversion and then support them on that conversion journey as they commence it. And so that's just one avenue but certainly, we'll test and learn there and understand what the engagement successes and the efficiency of getting that consumer to convert.
Robert Rampton:
Great. That's very clear. And if I may sneak in one more apologies. Just in terms of IQOS curious as to what in your mind drives the pace of the rollout. So right now it looks like it's very tied to those tax breaks. So I mean, I guess at what point would we expect a big bang in terms of national launch given getting tax breaks is a slow process or be more incremental? Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, the way we think about it is and it's just important to remind everyone look, PMI has been on this pathway for a long time. They've been talking about it. Certainly, you guys have been talking about it. We have. It is brand new to the U.S. consumer. So we want to make sure that we're doing it the right way. I would say in a disciplined fashion versus your terminology a big bang. Once we feel like we have it right, we have plans in place to continue the expansion. Certainly, we're going to be influenced by always being able to put our best foot forward. Now having the IQOS 3 device approved having the MRTP claim on the 2.4 system gives us a much better indication and a much better engagement plan with consumer but we are learning along the way. I would say that Charlotte launch was more successful based on the learnings we had in Richmond and Atlanta. And so we're going to continue that disciplined approach. But I don't want you to think that we're trying to get that the SET agreements with the state legislatures to influence how fast or how we think about the launch. That will not be an influence and how we proceed with the IQOS launch.
Robert Rampton:
Right. that's very clear. Thank you. Thanks for taking my question.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question is from Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
Hi, good morning. So the FDA just published their press release formally announcing that they intend to pursue a nationwide menthol ban. I wonder from your perspective, what impact would this have on cigarette consumption. How many people would quit cigarettes? How many would move to reduce risk products? How many would just like switch from say newports to Marlboro, for example?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it's a great question and again, you caught me off guard, because I've been having the phone call. So I haven't had a chance to read it. I think it depends on what the proposal is, how they think about that proposal through time and how they think about implementing it. I would remind you that the science and evidence we see, and based on the comments that we have provided previously, we don't see the science and evidence that would support that. We don't think prohibition works. It's fraught with unintended consequences. But this is exactly the reason why we pursued a portfolio approach that if there are any actions by the regulatory in any specific category that put the consumer in play, we wanted to make sure we had the right product, right brands in each of the categories and have those products and brands in their consideration set as they are faced with different choices but will certainly be engaged with the FDA, and continue to encourage them to focus on the science and evidence.
Jennifer Maloney:
Do you think that if it were implemented, I know that's a big and it wouldn't happen overnight, but would it accelerate the decline in U.S. cigarettes volumes?
Billy Gifford:
I think that's a tough hypothetical to answer. We'll have to see how it's implemented. If it's implemented and how they go about it and how the consumer considers that from a standpoint of what are the unintended consequences and access they have to menthol cigarettes outside of the legal system and then are they at play for other products to gain their satisfaction.
Jennifer Maloney:
Over the past few years the company has been trying to expand its presence in the menthol category noting in investor presentation that menthol represents kind of a growing share of cigarettes, U.S. cigarette sales. Could you speak to the importance of the menthol category for Altria and for the U.S. cigarette industry?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think when you think about it for Altria, I would remind you that we're under indexed in share in the menthol category. We tend to be over indexed in non-menthol. And so from a total standpoint of the category I would really direct you to the comments we provided to the FDA of air concerns of an outright ban on menthol that we provided previously when they've been working.
Jennifer Maloney:
Alright. Thanks very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Nik Modi with RBC.
Nik Modi:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. So just wanted to follow up on the menthol question. Billy maybe you could just remind us the process from here just in terms of the steps that need to happen just so we can kind of square it and make sure we're thinking about it the right way?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, we believe it'd be a multiyear process, Nick. When you think about the administrative process and again, you've caught me a bit unawares because I can't read what they have published and how they stated it. So we'll certainly be reading that and diagnosing it. But there's a rulemaking process that takes place. They have to come out with a proposed rule. If that's where they're at right now they have to receive comments, they have to consider all of those comments, and then they have to go to final rulemaking. And so that's a pretty lengthy process that we will certainly be engaged in with the FDA to share a point of view.
Nik Modi:
And that was kind of my question I guess, which is the everything resets? Right, because obviously, we've gone through this several times in the last 10 years. So I just want to make sure I'm thinking about that the right way that they have to go through the whole process again.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I don't know what they announced. So I can't speak to the specifics but the normal processes that they would go through as a proposed rule. There would be comments, then there would be a final rulemaking. And so, again, I can't speak to specifics based on not having read what they announced.
Nik Modi:
Right. Thanks, Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time I would like to turn the call back to Mac Livingston for closing comments.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks everybody for joining us. Please contact the investor relations team if you have further questions. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to Altria Group 2020 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Lori [ph]. Good morning and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO, and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's fourth quarter and full year business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation and quarterly metrics are all available on our website at Altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2019. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Mac. Good morning and thank you for joining us. Altria delivered outstanding results in 2020 and managed through the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our tobacco businesses were resilient and our employees demonstrated unwavering commitment to their work, colleagues and communities. Our employees continue to move Altria forward and we believe we're making steady progress toward our 10-year vision to responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to a non-combustible future. We continue to execute against the strategies we previously shared including maximizing profits in our combustible businesses. Responsibly expanding our non-combustible products and demonstrating science-based leadership in the external environment. We've remained active in our communities, supported relief efforts for the pandemic and the West Coast Wildfires. We're committed to driving positive change and addressing racial and economic inequities. Change starts from within and our employees are leading our efforts to build a more diverse, inclusive and equitable organization. Our 11 employee resource groups are helping promote cultural awareness and diversity in our workplace and within our communities. Two of these organizations mosaic and Si! were recently recognized for their contributions by the National LGBT Chamber of Commerce and by the Virginia Hispanic Chamber of Commerce respectively. We also acknowledged the importance of addressing environmental challenges and we've established ambitious goals for 2030. Last month, we were among the 1% of companies awarded a AA rating from CDP for climate and water stewardship. We're proud of these efforts and I look forward to sharing more details about our ESG initiatives next month at CAGNY. 2020 was a dynamic year in the tobacco industry with notable changes in each category. Tobacco consumers continue to adopt non-combustible alternatives to cigarettes. Most significantly in the oral tobacco space with rapid growth in oral nicotine pouches off of a small base and a return to moderate buying growth in moist smokeless tobacco. The heated tobacco category also showed encouraging signs of smoker interest still it remains in its early stages. The e-vapor category however which have been the biggest driver of smoker conversion over the last several years contracted in 2020 as it continues to undergo a transition period pending FDA market determinations. And in combustibles cigarettes volumes were little changed from 2019 as the COVID-19 pandemic altered smoker behaviors and purchasing patterns. Looking at the tobacco space in total estimated [indiscernible] volumes remained stable. In fact over the last five years we estimate that total tobacco volumes have only decreased by 1% on a compounded annual basis. While 2020 represented a pause in some industry trends away from combustible products, our plans to achieve our 10-year vision remains centered around building a deep understanding of evolving tobacco consumer preferences, meeting these preferences by expanding the awareness and availability of our non-combustible product portfolio and when authorized by the FDA engaging with smokers to educate them on the benefits of switching to alternative products. Let's now turn to our 2020 business results. Altria's full year adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 3.6% driven by strong performance from our tobacco businesses. We also returned nearly $6.3 billion in cash to our shareholders in the form of dividends and our Board increased the dividend for the 55th time in the past 51 years. Our smokeable products segment continues to be the engine that powers our 10-year vision. Generating significant cash that can be invested in non-combustible products and return to shareholders. This segment has demonstrated strong profit growth in a variety of marketplace conditions. Over the last five years smokeable segment adjusted OCI has grown by 5.5% on a compounded annual basis and this segment has delivered excellent financial performance across various volume and market share dynamics. We continue to be pleased with the performance of our combustible businesses and Sal will provide more details on this segment in his remarks. Moving to our non-combustible offerings, we're pleased with the continued strength of USSTC's moist smokeless tobacco business and the encouraging results from our other non-combustible products. We believe our products and investments with the oral tobacco, e-vapor and heated tobacco categories present compelling options for the millions of US smokers looking for alternatives to cigarettes. In oral tobacco, we believe we have an unmatched portfolio of MST and all nicotine pouch products. Copenhagen remains the leading oral tobacco brand and delivered strong volume and profit performance for the year. We are also excited about the potential for on! and believe it's a satisfying product for both smokers and dippers. Helix made significant progress in its first full year of operations. Over the last 12 months, our talented regulatory affairs team assist the Helix in following PMTAs for the on! portfolio which we believe demonstrate that the products are appropriate for the protection of public health. Our highly skilled engineers and machine operators supported Helix and established a manufacturing footprint for on! in our Richmond facility and Helix has reached annualized capacity for on! of 50 million cans. The team continues to install machinery and Helix expects unconstrained manufacturing capacity for the US market by mid-year 2021. And the Helix brand management and AGDC's sales teams collaborated to steadily increase the retail distribution of on! during the year and executed innovative trial generating promotions that demonstrate the ability for on! to gain traction with smokers and dippers. on! was sold in approximately 78,000 stores at the end of 2020 up nearly 40% from the third quarter and with the five times the store count from the end of 2019. In stores with distribution, on! achieved a retail share of 2.4 percentage points of the oral tobacco category in 2020 with significant growth coming in the second half of the year. Helix has strong plans for the year ahead and is focused on removing capacity constraints, reaching its retail distribution partners, building brand equity and converting smokers. We're confident in the on! proposition and believe its satisfying range of nicotine strengths of flavors and unique packaging position it well for success in directly growing nicotine pouch space. Moving to e-vapor, we estimate that total category volumes decreased by 10% for the full year. The category continues to undergo a transition period as FDA prepares to make market determinations on the thousands of PMTAs filed by the September 2020 statutory deadline. We continue to believe that e-vapor products play an important role in tobacco oral [ph] production and that sustainable e-vapor category will be one that consist solely of FDA authorized products. We believe the categories long-term trajectory will be determined by regulatory decisions, legislative and tax policy and innovation that best addresses smoker and vapor preferences. In the heated tobacco category, PM USA continues to expand IQOS and Marlboro HeatSticks responsibly and in a disciplined manner. PM USA's 2020 accomplishments included launching in Charlotte with a more disruptive retail fixture expanding the retail distribution of HeatSticks to approximately 1,000 total stores, introducing devices into select Charlotte convenience stores, developing an array of new digital tools including mobile video chat capability which gives PM USA's customer care experts a virtual option to build connections and support age verified smokers through their conversion journey and communicating with smokers using the FDA authorized reduced exposure claim about the benefits of switching from cigarettes. We're excited that the FDA has authorized the IQOS 3 device for sale in the US. The new device offers several enhancements compared to the current 2.4 version including a longer battery life and a faster recharging time. PM USA expects to begin selling the new device shortly and it would be available across all existing retail channels in the Atlanta, Charlotte and Richmond markets. PM USA also recently introduced new packaging for HeatSticks and has renamed the three currently authorized HeatSticks skews as amber, blue menthol and green menthol. The new packs feature a cleaner look and PM USA believes the naming convention will facilitate HeatSticks line extensions in the future should additional variance be authorized by the FDA. PM USA is focused on expanding the availability and awareness of IQOS. Achieving its contractual [ph] performance requirements and remains on track with its 2021 plans to expand IQOS and HeatSticks into four new metro markets and surrounding the geographies. We believe that PM USA has the right approach to maximize its first mover advantage while we're responsibly positioning the US heated tobacco category for long-term growth and profitability. Let's now turn to our financial out for 2021. Our plans for the year ahead include accelerating investments in support of our 10-year vision. We expect to fund through the financial strength of our tobacco businesses. The external environment remains dynamic however and we're monitoring various factors including unemployment rates, fiscal stimulus, tobacco consumer dynamics including stay at home practices, disposable income, purchasing patterns and adoption of non-combustible products, regulatory and legislative developments, the timing and breadth of COVID-19 vaccine deployment and expectations for adjusted earnings contributions from our alcohol assets. Taking these factors into consideration, we expect to deliver 2021 full year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.49 to $4.62. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 3% to 6% from a $4.36 base in 2020. Our 2021 guidance incorporates planned investments to drive smoker conversion to non-combustible products including continued marketplace investments to expand the availability and awareness of our non-combustible offerings, building an industry leading consumer engagement system that enhances data collections and insights in support of conversion and increased non-combustible product research and development. We expect our 2021 adjusted EPS growth to come in the last three quarters of the year primarily due to prior year comparisons which includes one fewer smokeable products shipping day in the first quarter. Altria's tobacco business has delivered excellent results over the past year and I'd like to thank our employees for their hard work. Their dedication drives our strong performance and it's their passion and commitment that makes me excited for Altria's future. I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our financial performance.
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks Billy. Let me begin by providing an update on US tobacco consumers. Economic conditions remained challenging for consumers in the fourth quarter as unemployment rates remain high and the enhanced benefits from the original pandemic assistance package were fully exhausted. However, we believe consumers continued their stay-at-home practices in the fourth quarter contributing to more tobacco usage occasions and higher tobacco discretionary spending. At retail, we estimate that the fourth quarter the number of tobacco consumer trips to the store was slightly lower than prior levels. The tobacco expenditures per trip remained elevated versus the year ago period. Turning now to our business, the smokeable product segment delivered excellent financial and marketplace results in 2020. The segment grew full year adjusted OCI by over 10% and expanded its adjusted OCI margins by almost 2 percentage points. The smokeable segment also achieved robust net price realization of 6.7% for the year with PM USA's revenue growth management framework continuing to enhance the segments top line performance. Smokeable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 0.4% in 2020 versus the prior year. When adjusted for trade inventories calendar differences and other factors, we estimate that full year segment cigarette volumes declined by 2%. At the industry level, we estimate that full year domestic cigarette volumes were unchanged versus the prior year after adjusting for the same factors. Looking ahead, we expect 2021 cigarette industry volume trends to be most influenced by smokers stay at home practices, unemployment rates, fiscal stimulus, cross category movement, the timing and breadth of COVID-19 vaccine deployment and consumer purchasing behavior following the vaccine. Due to the uncertain timing and magnitude of each of these dynamics, we're not providing a cigarette industry outlook. We believe the degree of cross category movement will be influenced by several factors including consumer perceptions of the relative risk of non-combustible products compared to cigarettes, FDA determinations on PMTA filings and legislative actions. We'll continue to monitor these factors and update you on the pandemic driven and underlying smoker behaviors that we observe in the category. Turning to marketplace performance, Marlboro's fourth quarter retail share was 43.3% up two-tenths versus the prior year and unchanged sequentially. Marlboro continued to benefit in the fourth quarter from smoker preferences toward familiar products during disruptive times and continued lower promotional spending among competitive brands versus the first half of 2020. For the full year, Marlboro's retail share declined three-tenths to 43%, Marlboro's full year share performance was impacted by the movement of older consumers coming back into cigarettes from e-vapor which we observed at the beginning of 2020. This demographic has a greater tendency to purchase discount cigarettes than the category average which increased discount segment share to start the year. We continue to be pleased with Marlboro's performance and believe its leading brand equity positions to brand well to deliver on this long-term profit potential. In discount, total segment retail share was 24.5% in the fourth quarter unchanged versus the year ago period and up two-tenths sequentially. For the full year discount segment retail share increased three-tenths to 24.5% driven by the cross-category movement observed at the beginning of 2020 and growth in deep discount products. Moving to cigars, Middleton provided a strong contribution to the smokeable segments financial results and continued to successfully navigate the regulatory environment. Reported cigars shipment volumes increased 9% for the year and Black & Mild remained the leading tip cigar brand. Middleton has also received market orders or exemptions from FDA covering over 97% of its volume. Turning to non-combustibles, we're very pleased with the performance of the oral tobacco product segment. Segment adjusted OCI increased 7.3% for the year and it maintained its strong adjusted OCI margin of 71.7 percentage points despite increased investments behind on!. Reported oral tobacco segment volumes increased by 1.2% in 2020 driven by on! oral nicotine pouches. In MST, Copenhagen reported shipping volumes were unchanged versus the prior year. When adjusted for calendar differences trade inventory movements and other factors full year oral tobacco segment volumes increased by an estimated 1%. Full year 2020 retail share for the oral tobacco segment was 49.8% down to 2.7 percentage points due to the increased adoption of oral nicotine pouches. We remained pleased with the performance of Copenhagen in the MSC category and we're excited about the growth potential of on! as we continue to expand capacity and distribution. In alcohol, the pandemic negatively impacted the 2020 financial performance of both Ste. Michelle and our equity investment in ABI. Ste. Michelle's full year adjusted OCI decreased approximately 30% driven primarily by lower on premise and direct to consumer sales partially offset by higher pricing. And in beer, we recorded $157 million of adjusted equity earnings in the fourth quarter representing Altria share of ABI's third quarter 2020 results and a decrease of more than 19% from the same period last year. For the full year, we've recorded $540 million in adjusted equity earnings from ABI down over 36% from 2019. In our all other operating category, we've recorded $172 million in adjusted losses for the year. More than half of which related to non-cash reductions and the estimated residual value of certain assets at Philip Morris Capital Corporation. As of year-end 2020 the net finance assets balance for PMCC was $320 million. We expect to continue reducing this balance in 2021 through rent and asset sales and expect to fully complete the PMCC wind down by the end of 2022. Moving to capital allocation, our balance sheet remained strong and our tobacco businesses are highly cash generative. Dividends remain our primary vehicle for returning cash to shareholders and our long-term objective is a dividend target payout ratio of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted earnings per share. We believe our dividend target payout ratio provides significant shareholder return while allowing for flexibility in our capital allocation. We perform rigorous analyses to determine the best use of excess cash including evaluating options for reinvesting behind our 10-yaer vision, refinancing our long-term debt and repurchasing shares. Yesterday our board authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program which we expect to complete by June 30, 2022. The new authorization reflects the significant value the board believes exists in our shares today. With that, we'll wrap up and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. we've also posted our usual quarterly metrics which include pricing, inventory and other items. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] our first question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC.
Nik Modi:
Just two questions from my side. If you guys can give us maybe a state of the union of what you're seeing from the excise tax front that would be helpful. And then the broader question is just on Marlboro I mean very good share performance which could be surprising given some of the stimulus is kind of was over, we had kind of air pocket in terms of government stimulus. What really drove that? I mean you spoke in your prepared comments about well recognized brands, but I'm just trying to get it underneath there's other drivers like price gap management or the Marlboro rewards programs and how that played a role in terms of shifting the share trajectory because it's been losing share for a number of quarters now? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks for the questions, Nik. We'll take them in an order. On the excise tax front, I would remind you that we had two state excise tax increases happened at the beginning of this year. Certainly with the bills that the states have racked up responding to COVID. Certainly it will be a little bit more challenging excise tax environment. We have a great government affairs team as you know Nik and they engage on both sides of aisle across the states and really know how to engage on that. From that standpoint though, I think right now most governments are focused on how to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control and so there's a little bit of chatter across the states. But nothing to point out at this point, but certainly it will be a challenging environment as they look to pay the bills related to their response to COVID-19. On Marlboro Nik, I think what you saw with and Sal highlighted in his comment people were concerned at the beginning of the year. We tried to highlight for the analyst and investor community that what we saw was consumers moving back from e-vapor back into cigarettes in both premium brands and discount brands benefitted from it but because it tended to skew older adults smoker coming back, we know that they have a proclivity towards discount brands. We didn't panic when that was taking place, we felt like we knew what was behind that and I think you just seen the strength of the Marlboro brand through time certainly there is some competitive premium brands that had some extra resources in the marketplace at the beginning of 2020. We felt saw those lessen as we progressed through 2020 and to your point. The programs we have in place and the Marlboro brand team do an excellent job of engaging with the consumers and nearly building loyalty through time whether you mentioned the rewards programs but other programs as well and I think that, the strength of the Marlboro brand and we're excited about where it stands.
Nik Modi:
Great, thanks guys. I'll pass it on.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
So I guess my first question is on your EPS guidance. I guess I'd be curious to hear, what did your guidance assume in terms of the tax increases that you just touched on? I mean I'm wondering Billy if it does consider a potential federal excise tax increase maybe at the low end. And then I guess I'm a bit surprised you were unable to provide even a wide range for your cig volume expectations this year. I certainly understand there's a lot of uncertainty right now in our world. But you must have I guess some sense of the range of your cig volumes again given your EPS guide. So maybe you could touch on that for us a bit just at high level, whether or not you expect cig volumes this year will possibly revert back in historical declines. Maybe below historical declines given the tough comps and the potential for greater excise tax increases. Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you Bonnie and we'll take those in turn as well. On the EPS guidance, really when you think about the EPS guidance and I know you're including kind of the cigarette volume in that. We run a range of scenarios around that. We really look at what - our base expectations. We have a very strong forecasting group. They forecast across the various categories and then we run a range of scenarios around that upside then downside and we think about. Okay, what do we feel confident about in providing a short range of EPS guidance for the year and that's where we landed? As far as cigarette volume, it was at the - that we didn't have a forecast for volume. We feel very good about the way we got about forecasting volume. But to your point there are a lot of uncertainties and a lot of fluidness in the environment whether that's the consumer and how they engage with some of these non-combustible categories as they continue to grow or to the things we've highlighted in remarks, whether it's unemployment or the fiscal stimulus if the government passes that. So there are range of factors. What we think really focusing on the consumer and that's what we are trying to do is really give more information about how we're focused on the consumer and what or when they go and that's exactly why we implemented the portfolio strategy. It's really looking at the consumer is going to make different decisions depending on where they're at in their journey and how do we really focus on the consumer and have the best products and best brands in each of those categories as they make decisions. Don't get me wrong. The cigarette as I said in my remarks really fuels the engine for fueling the 10-year vision. But we think what you should hold us accountable to is our success and meeting the customer where they're at regardless of what category they're at.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay, that's helpful. I appreciate that and then speaking of your 10-year vision. I did want to just maybe ask you to help us with that and maybe update us where you're out with that. I know it's in the beginning, but are there any guide posts you could share with us, you're expecting to see for your business maybe even in the next three to five years and I'm asking because obviously per your guidance and your comments you're entering a period near term here where you're stepping up spend to kind of accelerate this plan. So it would help us to understand maybe some targets like for you to convert your business to the non-combustible products as you mentioned. Is it fair to assume 20%, 25% for instance in the next I don't know again three, five or five plus years? And then as you execute on that vision, are you also open to or considering future M&A to even accelerate this further or should we just assume this will all be done organically. And then I do want to hear about how you're incentivizing your employees to execute? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. Look. I'll take them in reverse orders, as far as the employees. They have such passion. But you're right incentivizing them in the right direction certainly directs that passion. We've shared that 10-year vision that we have and how we expect to progress through time with our employee base. They're passionate about it. They're excited to support that and we think we have the right incentive program in place to work that excitement. As far as milestones again I won't go into a specific numerical value. Remember from an overall objective we're looking to balance strong growth, EPS growth for investors and the associated cash involved with that. But at the same time making investments over the long-term to advance our non-combustible portfolio. So what we're really trying to do is have that balance and so we're certainly going to share with you through time, how we're making progress. But it's really about the journey of the consumer. So if you think about really driving awareness of the consumer for new categories [indiscernible] trial, ultimately purchase and then at the final stage conversion to these new categories, that's the way we're thinking about the consumer journey and we're really investing to get to as close to the consumers as we can because each consumer is going to be in a different point in that journey and make different decisions across the categories and that's exactly the portfolio approach as different actions are taken whether they're regulatory actions, whether they're consumers really enjoying a category. Is being able to be agile enough to not starve any category that's growing and make the appropriate investments there. So that's how we're thinking about the consumer journey and you'll see a share more through time of how we're progressing with those consumer journeys.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay, thanks. Maybe quickly on the M&A, would you be open to that as an - something about the next year if there's a way to just further accelerate that whether you develop it internally or would you be open to looking outside capabilities?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, we'll keep our eyes open for everything. But we're extremely excited about the portfolio products that we have currently and is really a focus on execution and to your point that's exactly why we talked about the investments and their product development. Is making sure that we're staying abreast with the consumer and really keeping pace and meeting their needs and desires.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right, thank you. I'll get back in queue. Appreciated.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
So I wanted to speak [ph] on combustibles, please. So if we're looking wholesale inventories for both you and the industry. They remain elevated at year end relative to where you guys closed out into the last two years. Appreciate some of that probably is just [indiscernible] stock because of COVID. But how should we think about inventory levels at we head into 2021 please. Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, thanks for the question Vivien. I think you nailed it. I think it was as wholesalers and retailers are making decisions around where they stood with the COVID-19 pandemic and what because at different parts across the US. The surges that are taking place in different state government decisions about shut downs and the consumers mobility and the marketplace. And so I think certainly there is a slight level of increase over what you've seen in previous years as they took those things to consideration. Certainly as we always said through time those wholesale inventories tend to balance out and so we'll see as we progress through the COVID-19 pandemic and the vaccination rollout, how wholesalers and retailers decide to what levels are appropriate for them.
Vivien Azer:
Understood. Thank you so much for that. And my follow-up question is on oral tobacco. So [indiscernible] industry volume growth in the quarter and the year. I was wondering whether you could unpack that at all and provide some color on how much of that growth came from modern oral so we could have a better sense of what's happening with underlying MST. Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I would say both pieces of that category did grow during the year. But certainly the vast majority was the onset of the novel [ph] oral products whether it be on! or Zen or other products in that space and so that's the vast majority. But both segments of that category did grow. So we feel good about the offerings we have and brands in the traditional MST. And Copenhagen continues to lead that category, we feel great about its position.
Vivien Azer:
Understood. Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.
Michael Lavery:
Could you just talk a little bit about what you're seeing with IQOS and what engagement is really proving the most effective whether it's in the stores or digital or mail or anything else? And how does the IQOS 3 launch impact any of your marketing approach?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it's a great question Michael. We're very excited about what we've experienced in the first three - markets. From a standpoint of the exact way to engage with the consumers, what's most important we've found is the consumer education that we understand what the IQOS device delivers and the Marlboro HeatSticks, what flavor expectations they can have and then really how to use the device. So from that standpoint we're trying many things because remember we launch in densely populated areas. So you have one strategy there. But then as you move from those densely populated areas out that's exactly why we were testing the device sales in convenience stores to really meet consumers where they are and as you get to more rural location really have an outlet to engage with the consumer. We actually use all of those measures that you mentioned. Whether it's direct mail, whether its retail stores, the [indiscernible] in the convenience store, whether it's corners and various places or whether it's the mobile unit. And certainly in Charlotte, we have used the mobile units to a larger extent because what we found is as, you meet a certain capacity you can actually move those mobile units from one location to another and really maximize the number of consumers you're engaging with. Most certainly in the COVID world, we had some challenges there because there is a lot of engagement one-on-one with the consumer. But our team implemented digital tools. We talked about the mobile chat capability that they installed and so we're excited to continue to expand and we'll have more to say on that.
Michael Lavery:
Okay, great. That's helpful and then could you just give your latest thinking on Cronos and would you expect to take full control, if federal law were to change?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I'm not going to speak to taking control or any M&A activities. Certainly we think Cronos has positioning themselves well to take a roll in the US, if it becomes federally legal. I think it's important to step back and really stake what we believe. We believe it should be legal at the federal level. But it's got to have the right regulatory framework. So if you think about that total framework, what it should address is it should address underage use, it should establish industry product standards and that includes safety standards. It really needs to be guided by the science so that from a standpoint of everything should be science driven and it really should deal with the social justice issues that are involved in that space. And so we believe it should be federalized in legal level. We support that. We're engaged with that. But it's got to have the right comprehensive framework surrounding it.
Michael Lavery:
Okay, great. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Chris Growe:
I just had a question for you. First of all, you've had an elevated rate of price realization in the cigarette business in particular and as we enter the year certainly as you lap increase that occurred in 2020 as well as presuming you take increases in 2021 beyond what you've done already. It would seem to provide the backdrop for an even stronger rate of profit growth. So I want to understand without getting into numbers I realized that's going to be hard to get into. But just understand the concept, the desire behind the higher level of pricing in which you can do with that, so is there is a heavier rate of investment in the business, is this going to help fund more of your expansion of on! and the [indiscernible] part of 10-yaer vision. I'm just trying to understand the pricing strategy as it's evolving here.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I appreciate the question. I'll be careful Chris as you mentioned not to get into future pricing strategies; look we recognized that pricing is an important part of the algorithm. I would remind you that the strategy for the combustible segment both cigarettes and cigars is to maximize profitability over the long-term while balancing investments in mobile and funding the growth of non-combustible portfolio, so certainly profitability in the traditional tobacco space is what we're using to invest in the future in these non-combustible product arenas. So certainly we'd look at that from a standpoint of when you look at pricing, a couple of the factors that we think about pricing as we move forward is really, where are our consumers on an economic standpoint. What are they feeling, how do they feel, what are they thinking about? It's the strength of our brands, how do we think about our brands and the strength in the consumers mind and then certainly business performance and objectives factor into that. I think when you look at price realization over the past couple of years. I think it's important to remember that's not all list price, it also has the price efficiencies we've been able to garner from the advanced analytics that we put in place and so with the amount of data that we get in and the advanced analytics that we've invested in. I think you're seeing the benefit in price realization of being more efficient. But just as effective if not more in the marketplace with the promotional spend that we have, so it's a combination of both and we're extremely excited about what our advanced analytics team has been able to accomplish.
Chris Growe:
Okay, thank you for that. I had one other question that's I hope it's not too general. I'm just curious as I look at like cross category movement which was a modest factor throughout 2020, is that more difficult to forecast in 2021. Like again I hope that's how you're seeing that. But I guess on getting to just a year where your category to just modern oral or heated tobacco especially as they grow and become larger could have a larger effect on the cigarette category as an example, so is this the year where you see the potential for that transition or acceleration and some of those categories that could further influence cigarette volumes in 2021 or is it just too soon for that?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I don't think it's too soon for that Chris. I'm hesitant to try to give much more on cigarette volume guidance. I think you're exactly right though. The success of those categories and our success and we'll certainly impact the cigarette category in line with their vision. But when you step back Chris that's exactly why we really went this portfolio approached products. It's about meeting the consumer where they're at, each consumer is going to make different decisions and that objective we have balancing strong growth in the associated cash for our investors and investing in these categories. As we progressed through the year and we see a consumer following of one of these categories we want to make sure we're not starving it for investments. So it's provides us the flexibility we feel to make the right decisions as we progressed through the year.
Chris Growe:
Okay, thank you for your time today.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Chris.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Jefferies.
Owen Bennett:
Just quick one from me, you note the increase in the R&D spend around non-combustibles and I'm assuming it's obviously can't be around vapor given and the agreement with JUUL. So I'm just wondering what this R&D spend is on, is it your own heated product, is it advancements in modern oral, is it something else entirely. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, you're exactly right, Owen. Thank you for the question. You're exactly right from an e-vapor standpoint with the agreement we have in JUUL we're not looking at product development in that space. But it really is staying - the keen focus is on the consumer and staying where the consumer is going and so it's across these categories that are growing is where we want to have product development to make sure we're keeping pace with the consumers' needs and desires and so I think any CPG having a strong product development is important and that's why we think it' is important for us to invest in that area.
Owen Bennett:
Okay and would that be, I mean even kind of potentially looking at developing your own heated products, is that a possibility in the future?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I'm not going to get into specifics, not that's in the non-combustible space is where we're investing and it's really about looking how the investor is what they're desiring and what needs are unmet and developing against that and so that's about as far as I'm going to go today. I think as we make progress in that space and we feel excited about the progress we made thus far, we'll share more when it's appropriate.
Owen Bennett:
Okay, thanks very much. Appreciated.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.
Steve Powers:
Billy, I guess when you step back and you sum up the elective investments that you seem to be prioritizing in 2021 both towards the vision of non-combustible future and the new product development. But also just the enhanced analytics around consumer insights and revenue growth management. Is there any way that is mentioned maybe even just relative to similar investments in prior years whether we should have been viewing 2021 as a year of investment acceleration on those fronts or is it, would you frame it more as a steady state glide path if you drew a line to the last years?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, to characterize it either way, Steve. We feel like we've made the appropriate investments certainly it's stepped up. But I wouldn't say that we're just gliding along. We're going to move where the consumer moves and so it's that keen focus on the consumer. It's about driving the portfolio that we have and so if you think about investments around on! and the heated tobacco space with IQOS and Marlboro HeatSticks, it's about driving investments there, driving awareness, getting the distribution we desire at retail and having it in the consumers consideration. When you go to the next category about this digital platform it's really about thinking about how do you - we've made great strides in analytics and I think you've seen the benefit and the performance of our businesses. Now it's about those insights being really focused on the consumer, how do we get this close to the consumer and understand where each consumer is that on their journey to conversion for whatever category they're choosing and making sure that we're able to communicate and keep pace with them in that journey. And then the final one is, as we've seen in all of these categories continued development around the product space is extremely important to the consumer and investing there to make sure we're keeping pace with the consumers, so that's how we're thinking about it. We're extremely excited about the portfolio we have, it's about getting it there to have it in the consumer consideration set, meeting them where they're at and communicating with them along the journey and then making sure that our products keep pace with consumers, future wants and desires.
Steve Powers:
Okay, if I could just maybe I think these are probably for Sal, just a couple of clean ups. As I think about the 2020 cost base. Clearly there were some incremental COVID related costs in that base and yet also some cost COVID-related savings. As you think about the move in 2021, is there way to net out those dynamics in your base case? And also if there's any advice you might have for us on the outside is to how we should think about the earnings impact as we go forward just as you continue to wind down the PMCC business, just how we should think about that flowing through the P&L? Thanks.
Sal Mancuso:
Sure, Steve and good morning. As far as the cost base in 2020 remember, we were lapping the cost reduction program that we implemented in 2019 and of course cost management remains top of mind for us. When you think about 2021, we think we have the right structure for the business and right size of the business. It's really about reallocating our spending, right? So we're moving spending from the combustible business as we invest into the non-combustible business in. our employees do a terrific job or thinking about efficiencies on their infrastructure and their processes and how that freeze up resources to reinvest in our 10-year vision and in our non-combustible platform. The right size organization we feel really good about. We have terrific employees. They've done a wonderful job of continuing to provide productivity during the pandemic and so that's how I would think about 2021 costs. As far as PMCC, the folks of PMCC over the last many years have done a wonderful job of really unwinding that business and it has been lumpy at times. We're selling assets, when you think about 2021 and 2022; we've got the net finance assets at a low level. It's significantly lower than when we began to wind down that business and really, it's about rents received and the sale of asset. So there might be some lumpiness in there. But we feel good about the portfolio that remains and the ability to unwind the business and we expect to be completely wound down in 2022.
Steve Powers:
Okay, thank you both, appreciated.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Gaurav Jain of Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
I've three questions so first is on the EPS guide for next year which is 3% to 6%, in that there is some component of share repurchases about 1% to 2%. So your pre-tax PBT, if your PBT guide is for 2% to 5% growth, so how are you incorporating the ABI equity income in that because that fell off quite a lot this year and if I just look at consensus numbers they ask for a very steep bounce back in ABI net income. So could you just help us understand that?
Sal Mancuso:
Yes, Gaurav. I want to be careful not to get into the particular components there. There's always puts and takes across the P&L. I think what's most important is as I stated early, it is subjective to have strong growth but then make appropriate investments in our non-combustible portfolio. So as you think about as we progressed through the year, if one area or another performs well within that affords us as we're progressing through the year to make changes if necessary. But it also affords us to the opportunity to invest in areas that we're seeing the consumer gravitate towards so that we're starving any particular category for investments.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure, that's helpful. Now second is on the price increases in the US industry recently. So your primary competitor is now pricing before you and it doesn't seem you're following all the price increases in all the states. I mean, is there [indiscernible] that the pricing balance and then the streak would deteriorate as we go forward?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Gaurav to be quite honest. We really don't pay attention to who goes first, who goes second or what order. Really and I mentioned this early, the major factors that go in our pricing consideration nothing from a competitive standpoint. It's really about how our consumers are from their economic positions, what are they feeling? How will they position and how do they feel about their future prospects? The next is the strength of our brands, how do we feel about brands in the marketplace and in the consumers' minds and then it is around business performance and objectives. Those are the three factors we think about when we build our plan around pricing and that's what drives our pricing decisions.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure, that is very helpful and my last question is just on the IQOS packaging which you shared on Slide 15. So I don't see any of the MRTP risk messages that were authorized by the FDA, so would there be a new packaging which would incorporate that and is Philip Morrison involved in fee design or is this under your sort of consideration that you could put whatever branding and packaging that you would like?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, certainly we collaborate with PMI but those decisions are ours and so from that standpoint, we wanted to make sure we had the flexibility as we move forward, where we will be communicating the MRTP with consumers and we want to do it in the most effective way that has an impact on them and so we're rolling that out and we started that processes in some of our markets. And what we saw and research is - it does bearing to the consumer's mind of deciding to engage with the concept of the IQOS and the Marlboro HeatSticks as well as their desire to stick with it. So we're looking forward to bringing that MRTP and we'll use the avenues that we think are most advantageous for us, to get that message across to the consumers.
Gaurav Jain:
Okay, thanks a lot.
Mac Livingston:
Lori [ph] before we go to the next question. We're aware that we've had a technical issue on the webcast and just want to make sure investors listening on the webcast are aware that we're going to work to get our transcript and replay up very quickly following the call. So we appreciate your patience on that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Rampton of UBS.
Robert Rampton:
Three questions from me. The first is, so looking at over the quarters I mean for the first time it seems like lowest effective price and the net pack price moved in opposite directions. Curios to understand what drove this, does it mean you're broadening the Marlboro price ladder and if so, interested to hear, why now?
Billy Gifford:
I think when you think about our pricing decisions as I mentioned earlier the things that factor into our pricing decisions and that [indiscernible] price realization is really around the list price increases we take and the efficiency is garnered across our promotional spend. I think when you look at the rest of the pricing decision. They're independent of us as manufacturers make those pricing decisions and then of course you have state excise taxes get added to that and then how retailers themselves are competitive in the marketplace. So there are lot of factors that go into that and we feel good about where we're at.
Robert Rampton:
Okay, cool. Second question, so in the annex you suggest that macro factors were 4% tailwind to industry volumes for 2020 which you said was primarily driven by stay at home. In the event stay at home ends, I'm just trying to get an understanding of how that evolves, does it go to minus 4% or zero? I mean I'm not looking for a guide here I'm just trying to better understand what you think the sensitivities [ph] are around the big uncertainties that you flanked, anything you can share here, maybe the experience in given states would be very helpful.
Billy Gifford:
Sure and so really what we think drove that was exactly what you mentioned and we had highlighted which were stay at home practices which consumers themselves faced less social friction. We're benefitting from more discretionary income related to the stay-at-home practices. So less discretionary whether it'd be movie tickets or going out to eat or even gas. And so as we progress through the year as we see consumers respond to how their behaviors related to how comfortable they feel returning to some of those discretionary other items or even they've decided to go fully back to work versus work remotely. It's something that we'll be monitoring and whether the consumer decides to adapt their life a bit to those changes or whether they go back I'll call it completely normal state pre-COVID and so that's something that we'll be monitoring. But certainly in our guidance we ran ranges of scenario and feel comfortable that we have levers across the business to be able to respond to that regardless of one of those scenarios occur.
Robert Rampton:
Okay and then my final question, just on heated tobacco. Any chance you can give us an update on the tax reductions you've secured and in terms of numbered states and the magnitude. Thank you very much.
Sal Mancuso:
Yes, so our government affairs team has been able to secure that reduction in six states and then of course there is a slight definition change in the state of Virginia, so if you count that as a reduction, there would be seven states. But six that are part of if you will once it receives designation from the FDA step down taxation.
Robert Rampton:
And sorry just a quick follow-up on that as I understand there was a kind of tearing element there, with some saying 25 to 50 depending on what type of MRTP you get, is that still a fairway of thinking about it?
Sal Mancuso:
It is. It's varies by stake. But that is a fair way to think about it.
Robert Rampton:
Great. Thank you very much. Appreciate you taking the time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam Spielman:
Just handful of questions really. Just to make sure I understand what you said, the first one is talking about Slide 10 of the presentation that's the one where you have it's about on! and heading is Building on! Momentum. I just want to make sure I've understood it. I think the left-hand side is saying there are more stores where you sell on!. On the right-hand side it's saying within stores you have a higher market share. So the question is, am I right to believe, is this sort of double effect. You've got higher percentage in more stores and therefore it is multiplicative effect. I know [indiscernible] two charts alone, is that the right way of thinking about that slide?
Billy Gifford:
That is the right way of thinking about it, Adam. What we've shown in the left side is cumulative distribution in stores and then on the right side, what we're showing is the quarterly share in those stores with distribution, so yes.
Adam Spielman:
Fine. And then on the slide I don't know what number it is. There's a slide on the sort of extra pack you give that says oral tobacco industry volume growth estimates. And in Q4, it's 6% versus Q3 it was 7%. So it's grown and then shrunk again. And I was just wondering, if there's any explanation about why slightly lower in Q4.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think you'll see fluctuations through time, Adam. Nothing grows in a straight line and so you're going to have distribution efforts that will accelerate that in periods of time and then you'll have a distribution levels out in some areas. You'll have fluctuations. I think, we try to provide this. But if you think of this more as a line through time is a better way to think about continued distribution in growth and oral. I think it shows the desire of the consumer to find a non-combustible product that satisfies them and as they move to those, you're going to see through time growth in these categories.
Adam Spielman:
And fine, thank you. And just final quick clarification question. I think Sal said, I just want to make sure I got this right, that although there is clearly an incremental investment in 2021 in non-combustible. We should think about this mainly as a reallocation from expense that would have been spent on combustibles as for example some of [indiscernible] transition across and spend more time.
Sal Mancuso:
Good morning, Adam. Let me clarify for you. We're increasing some of our investments in our non-combustible some of that will be offset through reallocation. But I don't want you to take away from my comments that is 100% funded by reallocation. So it helps us be more efficient across the full P&L. but as we stated in our earlier remarks, we are increasing our investment to achieve our 10-year vision.
Adam Spielman:
Okay and if I could continue to - that's very helpful. Thank you very clear. Can I just come back to clarify in on! I didn't really understand the full [ph]? I know you're not going to give me the precise number of dollars and cents. But if I think about the increments investment in 2021, is that roughly the same as the increment of investment in 2020 in the non-combustible area or is it more and less? Is the investment accelerating or moving at a same speed or are we moving to a sort of a more steady state situation?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Adam and we'll be hesitant to compare it. We think we're making the appropriate investments and it goes back to really balancing strong growth for the investor in the related cash and the appropriate investments there and so we're going to make the appropriate investments. We're never going to starve a category for investment that we think we're making significant progress in and so we're going to make the appropriate investments. I hate to say because the timing can be different during the year and so one quarter compared to a previous year or vice versa. But certainly we feel good about the investments we've made.
Adam Spielman:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] your next question comes from the line of Priya Ohri-Gupta of Barclays.
Priya Ohri-Gupta:
I was wondering if you could walk us through how we should think about your cash balance, as given the elevated nature of it year end. You have a few sort of things that are earmarked for that use that you haven't $1.5 billion maturity coming up, the share repurchase program, increased investments behind the non-combustible side. How should we think about each of those relative to the elevated cash balance and to that cash balance getting back to more normalized level? Thank you.
Sal Mancuso:
Good morning, this is Sal. I think you characterized it fairly. We do have an elevated cash balance than we've had typically Billy and I have talked about throughout 2020 [indiscernible] desire to have an elevated cash a balance as we manage through the pandemic. Remember last year the board of directors rescinded the share buyback program and we were very focused on it. And I think you've articulated uses of cash for this year. We're excited and really pleased that the Board of Directors authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program which we expect to complete by June 30, 2022. We're excited about that I think it's the appropriate level. It reflects the value in our shares and enhances shareholder value. But we also maintained capital allocation flexibility. We've remained committed to the 80% target payout ratio for our dividends against adjusted earnings per share and when you think about our cash position in a typical year after paying the dividend, making the necessary investments, capital investments in our business. We traditionally have about a $1 billion in excess cash and we will run through our capital allocation analyses to determine the best use of that cash.
Priya Ohri-Gupta:
That's helpful and I guess if we think about sort of refinancing versus using the cash to pay down your upcoming maturity. Could you walk us through some of the considerations that go into that specific decisions?
Sal Mancuso:
Yes, and I don't want to get ahead of myself on how we think about debt refinancing or debt or time - what I would tell you is that. We take into a lot of factors as many companies do, market conditions, best use of capitals to enhance shareholder value. So we have a very talented treasury team they work really hard on staying ahead of our debt maturities and thinking about capital allocation and the best use of our capital going forward.
Priya Ohri-Gupta:
Okay, that's helpful. One final just follow-up for me. How do you think about share repurchases in an accelerated manner versus sort of that in ongoing rate over the course of sort of the next 18 months?
Sal Mancuso:
Yes, I don't think it's helpful for me to share how quickly or the pace that we buy our shares back in a share repurchase program. I would tell you that we have communicated that it's an 18-month program and we will buy our shares. And you're right, it does depend on market conditions when it comes to the pace of share buyback. But I really don't think I should really provide much more detail than that.
Priya Ohri-Gupta:
Thank you so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jennifer Maloney of The Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
I wonder if you could talk about how you think consumer behavior may or may not change. I know that you talked about different scenarios that you could envision. But a lot of consumer goods company say that they expect it to be some permanent change in the way we behave moving forward even after the vaccine. People might continue to snuck more or they'll work home part of the week. So what's your best guess as to how much of this change in consumer behavior is sticky and how much we go back to the way things were?
Billy Gifford:
It's a great question Jennifer. It is something that we're going to monitor, engage with our consumers on a regular basis to be able to assess that. When you think about our consumer, they tend to be a bit at the lower end of the economic status and so from that standpoint they definitely need to be able to work. It depends on their trade of what there are participating the workforce in, how readily available they can choose to be completely remote versus having to report in at times. So I think [indiscernible] very greatly. It remains to be seen how much they adjust their lifestyle back to I'll call it normal pre-COVID to now even past a COVID pandemic, how much they adapt and change. So I think it remains to be seen and it's something that we'll be engaged with our consumers to be able to assess through time.
Jennifer Maloney:
If people are smoking more now and their discretionary spending goes down because they want to spend more at the movie theater. How much of a lever is the discretionary spending and how much of a lever is the fact that they're now sort of accustomed to and dependent on a higher number of cigarettes per day and that might be difficult to cut back moving forward?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I mean I think you can go back to 2015 and if you look at that really what we saw take place was that the precipitous drop in gas price gave our consumers extra discretionary spend. So to be able to answer your discretionary spend. I will go back in time and so as we saw them adapt to that certainly they added occasions to their day. But then they adapted those occasions back out. I think it's important to remember the undergoing trend to prevalence that trend is pretty steady. It hasn't changed. So it really is extra tobacco usage occasions in their day and it goes back to your first question, is how do they adapt their lifestyle? How quickly do they return to other types of discretionary spend depending on that would be dependent on how they think about their usage occasions in a day?
Jennifer Maloney:
All right, thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time I would like to turn the call back to management for closing comments.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Lori [ph]. Altria's tobacco business is having track record of delivering strong and consistent financial performance in challenging environment. Our outstanding 2020 results demonstrate the resilience of our business and we continue to reward our shareholders by returning a significant amount of cash in the form of dividend. We have strong plans for 2021 in pursuit of our 10-year vision and believe our tobacco business platform has the winning brands and is unmatched. Thanks again for joining us. Please stay safe and contact our Investor Relations team if you have any further questions. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you for participating in the Altria Group 2020 fourth quarter and full year earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to Altria Group 2020 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thank you, Maria. Good morning and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria’s CEO, and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria’s third quarter business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation and quarterly metrics are all available on our website at Altria.com and through the Altria investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2019. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria’s board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment, refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Mac. Good morning and thank you for joining us. Altria continued to demonstrate its resilience during the third quarter, while navigating the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. We've maintained our focus on employee well being to make sure they feel supported in these challenging times, and our people continue to move our organization forward. They are advancing Altria's commitment to address systemic racism and social inequities, empowering each other and leading their efforts to build a more diverse organization. And they're doing all of this while continuing to deliver the fantastic business results, as you saw in our earnings release this morning. In the third quarter, our Tobacco businesses delivered strong financial performance once again, and we made steady progress against our 10-year vision. Combined, the smokeable and oral tobacco products segments grew third quarter adjusted operating company's income by more than 9% and expanded adjusted OCI margins by 2 percentage points. At the same time, we're pursuing our vision to responsibly lead the transition of smokers to a non-combustible future. During the third quarter, Helix expanded the retail distribution of on! by an additional 16,000 stores. Our talented regulatory affairs team completed its critical support services for JUUL's PMTA submissions and PM USA began to market IQOS and HeatSticks as modified risk tobacco products, using the FDA authorized reduced exposure claim. Altria's third quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share was unchanged at $1.19. For the first nine months of the year, adjusted EPS grew 5.6% to $3.37, driven by the strong financial performance of our tobacco businesses. Let's discuss the third quarter in more detail, beginning with an update on US tobacco consumers. The external environment remains dynamic, and we believe a mix of macroeconomic and social factors influence consumer behavior and contributed to the sequential stability of tobacco industry volumes. An increasing number of Americans, including many tobacco consumers, faced economic hardships. By the end of the third quarter, as unemployment rates remained high and the enhanced federal unemployment benefits expired at the end of July. Executive orders temporarily re-established some of these benefits at lower amounts, but the length and timing of federal funding available to eligible consumers varied by state. However, we believe non-tobacco discretionary spending on items like gas and entertainment remain below pre-pandemic levels, helping offset some of the economic headwinds facing tobacco consumers. At retail, we estimate the number of tobacco consumer trips to the store rebounded in the third quarter and that tobacco expenditures per trip remained elevated versus the year ago period. We also continue to believe that consumer stay-at-home practices allow for more tobacco usage occasions in the quarter. Turning now to our businesses. The smokeable products segment delivered strong financial and marketplace results in the quarter. This segment delivered third quarter adjusted OCI of $2.8 billion, up nearly 10% from the same period last year. And for the first nine months, smokeable segment adjusted OCI increased 10.5% to $7.7 billion. Smokable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes decreased by 0.4% in the third quarter. When adjusted for trade inventory movements, segment cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 1%. For the first nine months, we estimate that smokable cigarette volumes decreased by 2% on an adjusted basis. At the industry level, we estimate that adjusted domestic cigarette volumes increased by 1% in the third quarter compared to the year ago period. And for the first nine months of 2020, we estimate that adjusted industry volumes were unchanged versus the prior year. Based on year-to-date performance and expectations for continued category resiliency, we are revising our industry estimates and now project full year 2020 adjusted cigarette industry volumes to be in the range of flat versus the prior year to down 1.5%. Marlboro's third quarter retail share was 43.3% unchanged versus the prior year and up 0.5 sequentially. We believe Marlboro improved third quarter performance can be attributed to several factors. As we described last quarter, we expect Marlboro 2020 retail share to be pressured by the cross-category movement back into cigarettes that we observed earlier this year. And while this dynamic continue to affect Marlboro's year-over-year share in the third quarter, it was more than offset by favorable trends in the premium segment of the category, including increased smoker preference for premium products during these disruptive times. Marlboro also benefited in the quarter from lower promotional spending among competitive premium brands. In discount, total segment retail share was 24.3% in the third quarter, up $0.02 versus the year ago period, driven by deep discount products. Sequentially, however, the discount segment contracted for the second consecutive quarter due to share losses in both branded and deep discount. We're continuing to monitor tobacco consumer behavior and believe that our smokeable businesses have the right tools in place to deliver against their strategy of maximizing probability in support of our vision. Turning to our non-combustible portfolio. Our companies have made steady progress against their expansion plans for on! and IQOS. These products, together with USSTC's leading moist smokeless business and our investment in JUUL, present significant opportunities for smoker conversion to non-combustible alternatives. In oral tobacco, we believe we have an unmatched portfolio of MST and oral nicotine pouch products. Our company's offerings with the Copenhagen, Skoal and own brands provide tobacco consumers with a wide range of satisfying formats, flavors and strengths. We believe on! is a strong proposition and has been successful with both smokers and dippers. on! was sold in 56,000 stores at the end of the third quarter, up 40% from the second quarter and more than tripled the store count from the end of last year. In stores with distribution, on! achieved a retail share of 2.1 percentage points of the oil tobacco category in the first nine months of 2020. Helix continues to test different trial generating promotions and has benefited from strong trade partnerships. In the third quarter, Helix tested promotions using retailer platforms such as Circle K's Lift System and the Murphy Drive Rewards program. We believe these tests were highly successful as they generated significant trial among smokers and dippers. We're very pleased with these results and our Helix team is continuing its efforts to retain these consumers and optimize future promotional activity. We're encouraged by the early performance of on! and believe the breadth of its portfolio sets it apart in the marketplace. Moving to e-vapor. The September 9th deadline for PMTA submissions represented an important milestone in the regulatory process for the e-vapor category. We believe it's important that e-vapor remains an alternative for smokers and believe that a sustainable e-vapor category will be one that consists solely of FDA-authorized products. We encouraged FDA enforcement against noncompliant manufacturers including those who continue to sell e-vapor products without a PMTA submission. We estimate the total e-vapor volumes decreased by 13% for both the third quarter and the first nine months of 2020. We believe the e-vapor category will continue to undergo a transition period over the next few years, as FDA makes market determinations on the thousands of PMTAs fall before the September deadline. In July, JUUL submitted PMTAs for its device and four JUULpod SKUs. As part of its application, JUUL also included its plans to address underage use of its products. The FDA reported that it has accepted JUUL's application and moved it into scientific review. We believe JUUL submitted a thorough application due to the critical support services provided by our talented regulatory affairs team. In September, JUUL announced a strategic update, which included its plans for a significant global workforce reduction, evaluation of resource allocation and the possibility of exiting various international markets. In preparing our third quarter financial statements, we performed a valuation analysis of our investment in JUUL, which considered both its international prospects and current U.S. e-vapor category dynamics. As a result of this analysis, we've recorded a $2.6 billion impairment to our JUUL investment, bringing its carrying value to $1.6 billion as of September 30. We're now projecting lower JUUL revenues over time due to lower pricing assumptions and delays in JUUL achieving previously forecasted operating margin performance. These changes are due to JUUL's revised international expansion plans and the evolving U.S. e-vapor category and associated competitive dynamics. We continue to believe that e-vapor products including JUUL can play an important role in tobacco harm reduction. In the heated tobacco category, PM USA continues to expand IQOS responsibly and in a disciplined manner. We believe that a relentless focus on the consumer journey from awareness to conversion is the key to success in this category. Going back in history, one of the reasons we supported the Tobacco Control Act was that it provided a pathway to communicate with smokers about the relative risk of FDA-authorized non-combustible products compared to cigarettes. And with the recent authorization of a reduced exposure claim on the IQOS system, PM USA is now marketing the IQOS device and HeatSticks as modified risk tobacco products. Today, PM USA has primarily used its robust digital assets and tobacco consumer database to communicate with smokers, included through websites, e-mail and direct mail. We believe that the combination of these modified risk communications and PM USA's more disruptive retail fixture will significantly enhance the quality of IQOS awareness among smokers. As smokers move along the journey to engagement and trial, PM USA is providing flexible options to learn about IQOS and purchase devices. PM USA now offers a video chat option for age verified smokers to use their mobile phones and connect directly with IQOS experts for product education and support. For online, the IQOS website offers smokers additional options including access to virtual tutorials and the ability with proper age verification to order devices for at-home delivery. PM USA is also expanding the availability of devices into the convenience store channel. And beginning next month, PM USA expects IQOS devices to be available in select Charlotte convenience stores. Turning now to guidance. We're very pleased with the strong financial performance of our tobacco businesses. Based on our year-to-date results and insight into an additional quarter of ABI earnings contributions, we're narrowing our full year 2020 adjusted diluted EPS guidance. We now expect to deliver 2020 full year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.30 and to $4.38. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 2% to 4% from a $4.21 base in 2019. Altria's tobacco businesses have delivered excellent results in 2020, and credit for our success belongs to our talented employees. Through hard work and dedication, Altria's employees have balanced multiple priorities, while making meaningful contributions to their communities and our company, and we greatly appreciate their efforts. I'd also like to welcome Dr. Ellen Strahlman to our Board of Directors as announced this morning. Dr. Strahlman extensive medical and R&D experience will be a tremendous asset to company as we pursue our 10-year vision. I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on our financial performance and capital allocation.
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks, Billy. Let me begin by providing some additional color on the smokeable products segment. The segment achieved strong net price realization of 5.9% for the third quarter and 7.1% for the first nine months. The segment's top line performance has been aided by PM USA's revenue growth management framework, which enables the business to more efficiently and effectively deploy its promotional resources. Segment adjusted OCI margins expanded over 2 percentage points in the third quarter to 57.5% as higher pricing and lower costs more than offset higher promotional investments and higher resolution expenses. For the first nine months, adjusted OCI margins were 56.9%, a 2.5 percentage point increase over the same period in 2019. In cigars, Middleton has performed exceptionally well this year, and has been a valuable contributor to smokeable segment adjusted OCI growth. Reported cigar shipment volumes increased 7% in the first nine months of the year and Black & Mild remains the leading tipped cigar brand. Last month, Middleton expanded the Black & Mild Aroma Rewards program, which allows cigar smokers nationwide, the ability to earn points on specialty marked Black & Mild packs. The points can be redeemed online for items such as mobile coupons and gift cards. Middleton is successfully navigating the regulatory environment and has received market orders or exemptions from the FDA covering over 97% of this volume. Turning to non-combustibles. Our oral tobacco products segment continues to deliver excellent financial results. Segment adjusted OCI increased by 4.3% in the third quarter and by 8.3% for the first nine months, primarily driven by higher pricing, partially offset by investments in on!. Oral Tobacco segment reported volumes decreased by 1.1% in the third quarter. When adjusted for calendar differences, trade inventory movements and other factors, estimated segment volumes increased by 4%; and for the first nine months, we estimate that oral tobacco segment volumes increased by 1.5% on an adjusted basis. Adjusted OCI margins for the oral tobacco segment increased by 0.6 percentage points in the third quarter. For the first nine months, segment adjusted OCI margins were essentially unchanged versus the prior year, as investments in on! offset margin expansion in our traditional MST business. We expect to continue our investments behind on! and we remain very pleased with the segment's strong adjusted OCI margin performance. Third quarter retail share for the oral tobacco segment was 49.9%. Copenhagen's category-leading retail share declined two percentage points to 31.8% and its year-over-year performance continues to reflect increased tobacco consumer adoption of oral nicotine pouches. Turning to our alcohol assets, 2020 has been a challenging year for both Ste. Michelle and ABI. Our thoughts and support are with Ste. Michelle's employees and their families as they deal with the tragic impact of the West Coast wildfires. We've made donations to several disaster recovery funds, including the American Red Cross and local foundations and started an employee giving campaign to support the relief efforts. In beer, we recorded $95 million of adjusted equity earnings in the third quarter, representing Altria's share of ABI's second quarter 2020 results and a decrease of more than 58% from the same period last year. For the first nine months of the year, we've recorded $383 million in adjusted equity earnings, down more than 41% from the same period in 2019, due to the impact of COVID-19 on ABI's underlying results. Moving to capital allocation. Our balance sheet remains strong and our tobacco businesses are highly cash generative. Our Board of Directors declared a dividend increase during the third quarter, representing Altria's 55th increase in the past 51 years. Our current annualized dividend rate is $3.44 per share, a 2.4% increase versus our previous rate. Dividends remain our primary vehicle for returning cash to shareholders and our long-term objective is a dividend target payout ratio of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted earnings per share. With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items.
Mac Livingston:
Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you, once again. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
Good morning. I wanted to ask about your guidance for 2020 industry volumes, which are flat year-to-date, your guidance for the industry to be flat to down for the full year, and it implies a very wide range for the fourth quarter. So, I was hoping to understand, what is contributing to that given that we're already a third of the way through the quarter. And then, looking towards next year, how are you thinking about the implications of this year's strength in the industry on the outlook for next year?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thanks for your question, Pamela. I'll take them in turn. I'll start with the industry guidance for this year. You're right, through the first nine months; I think the tobacco category has certainly shown its resiliency. We have seen -- and we tried to highlight for you the change in consumer behavior a bit. Certainly, they benefited from government stimulus and of course, that has been absent and run out. We do believe that is offset by them having some extra discretionary spend as they're spending less with whether it be gas or entertainment or going out and about. And even their stay-at-home practices, have benefited with additional usage occasions. But we were on a range of scenarios, and so there is headwinds and tailwinds as we progress into the end of the year, depending on how the consumer behavior changes with the lack of government stimulus payments and the progression of the pandemic. And so, we run a range of scenarios, and we felt like that was the most appropriate range to put forward for the remainder of the year. When you think about next year, I want to be careful not to get too far ahead of myself and provide guidance for next year. I think, if you think about some of the headwinds and tailwinds we have going kind of through the end of this year into the beginning of next, certainly unemployment remains very high from a headwind standpoint. I had already highlighted the government stimulus. So unless any action is taken, that would be absent in exacerbating, if you will, behind employment rates. Some of the tailwinds that we see are discretionary spend. If COVID, and it certainly looks likely that it continues kind of on its path it's been on, there will be stay-at-home practices, and certainly we've seen the consumer react to that from a standpoint of, we believe, adding additional nicotine occasions to their day. But we'll be sure to come forward with what we think is the best estimate for industry as progressed to the end of the year.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thank you. And I also wanted to ask about, how your outlook has changed since you last took your un-impairment charge on JUUL? And then, if you can explain the rationale behind the magnitude of the write-down, which implies about a total value for the company of $4.5 billion and seems to be a very significant difference relative to JUUL's reported internal valuation of about $10 billion.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. As you recall, Pamela, when we put together a valuation for the company, we do our best to make the best assumptions we can based on the future cash flows, how large the industry we would expect it to become both on the domestic side and the international side. We highlighted for you that we believe the category is going to go through a 2 to 3 year transition as all manufacturers in the e-vapor category navigate this FDA regulatory process. Certainly, we've seen a number of manufacturers get fairly competitive and step up their competitive activities in the marketplace. And we believe it's really due to as the FDA makes decisions and products can remain and some products leave the category that there will be consumers at play. And so all of those factors went into the valuation that we have and we came forward with our best estimate. I think while we're disappointed in the investment, we do believe that e-vapor will play an important role as we progress at harm reduction, especially in the U.S., but even worldwide. And we encouraged the FDA to get through their process because really, if you think about where e-vapor is now, on the other side of the FDA regulatory process, the marketplace should consist of only FDA-authorized products that have been through the scientific evaluation.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Pamela.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
Hi. Good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Vivien.
Vivien Azer:
I wanted to follow up on your commentary around the shift in consumer spending with the roll-off of the stimulus. Thank you for your transparency on that. I'm just curious, did you notice any differences across the nicotine categories? Was that a broad comment? Was that the cigarette specific? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, we made the comments specifically to cigarettes. But, I'd say, at large, I can't think of anything to highlight differences in categories with the exception of what we highlighted early in the year with the e-vapor category. We certainly saw consumers there as the FDA restricted flavors in the marketplace, we saw a number of consumers moving out of e-vapor, some back into cigarettes, and we highlighted the impact we thought that had on Marlboro. But I would say, basically, in essence, Vivien, we talk about the same consumer moving around on categories, so their behavior has been fairly consistent.
Vivien Azer:
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you for that. Then my follow-up is on IQOS. Encouraging that you guys were continuing to expand retail distribution, in particular, in C-store. I was wondering if you could just offer any incremental color on what consumers would expect in terms of that experience relative to some of the initiatives early on in the IQOS rollout given that none of us have the capacity to actually go into the market and observe it ourselves? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, absolutely. Thank you for the question, Vivien. I think when you think about IQOS, look, we're extremely excited to be able to come forward with the modified risk claim that the FDA authorized. And we really are looking at the IQOS team is looking at how do we meet the consumer where they're at and putting it in select convenience stores, it really is meeting the consumer where they make their point of purchase. And you can think about the guided trial being very similar to what takes place even in our mobile units at times are outside of convenience stores. It's really an education process. But our IQOS team has done some excellent work. And as you mentioned, from the COVID pandemic standpoint of implementing digital tools, so that there's tutorials that they can do digitally. And we're also testing at-home delivery once the consumer has gone through the tutorial and has been age verified that we could actually have at-home delivery of devices. And so we're excited about the opportunity here and very excited about what has transpired in the three markets we're in thus far.
Vivien Azer:
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Vivien.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right. Thank you, good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog:
Good morning. Billy, I guess, I would love to hear any initial facts you may have on the potential outcomes from the election. I guess, I'm thinking about given the pandemic we’re in and the massive budget shortfalls that we have here in this country, I guess it seems logical to anticipate greater excise tax increases in the next year or two. So what are your thoughts on this? And then maybe remind us how you typically manage your business through this higher tax environment? And then also any thoughts on the potential for greater regulation, depending on the outcome of the election. I think about in the context of maybe more state-level flavor bands or possible stepped up movement at the federal level on the potential for nicotine reduction on fixed? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. Thanks for the question, Bonnie. And I'll try to remember I was taking notes to make sure I had them all. But I missed, please follow-up. I think from an overall election standpoint, certainly, it's been a turbulent time across the US as we progress to election. But I think the best predictor is to step back and think about the success we've had under both pipe of administrations through our history. I think we have the right tools in place and the talented employees that know how to navigate this type of environment. So whether you think about excise taxes, I think if you look through history, we've been very successful in the way you characterize is high excise tax environment, and we've been successful in those. Certainly, if you look over kind of a lower excise tax increase environment, we've shown the ability to navigate through those as well. To address your regulation question, I think it's important to remember that we've had both administrations through the regulatory process, both Democratic and Republican And we engage not at the presidential level, but certainly at the congressional level with both sides of the aisle, we don't necessarily pick one or the other, we engage with both. And so at the FDA, if you think about the makeup of the FDA, those employees -- maybe with the exception of the commissioner who gets appointed politically are the same employees, and our team -- regulatory affairs team has built an excellent relationship. And I think both the FDA and us have learned how to interact with each other and anticipate what each other needs and wants as far as when an application takes place and be able to put those applications forward. So we've had great success in that. It's certainly something we'll be engaged with, because you're right, certainly at the state levels and at the federal levels, the governments have racked up significant bills related to their response to the COVID pandemic. And they will have to turn to how do they pay for that. So it certainly could be a bit more challenging excise tax environment, but as I said earlier, I think we've shown the ability to navigate both sites.
Bonnie Herzog:
Yes. That's helpful perspective. Thanks, Billy. And then I did want to touch on something else as I guess I can't help myself. I know it's early, but as you look out over the next year or two, how are you thinking about spending levels and investments behind your reduced risk portfolio as you execute on your 10-year vision. For instance, assuming, we get the PMTA and IQOS 3.0, will you get more aggressive in marketing and rolling out this newer technology into more markets? And then I'm thinking about it also for on!, I assume, you'd get more aggressive with that business as well as we look out over the next couple of years. So and thinking about it, I'm wondering if you are entering a period of maybe lower margin expansion, possible slower earnings growth. Your historical 7% to 9% growth rates, as you really are, I think, trying to pivot your business. And I think about this on the backdrop of what we were just talking about possibly entering the period of – of higher excise taxes. So just trying to think about how you're looking at your business over the next couple of years in that regard.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, you're right, Bonnie. I'll be careful not to get too far ahead of myself. I think at the highest level, if you think about – it's really balancing earnings growth and the associated cash that we return to shareholders. So having that and then balancing to your point, investments behind our non-combustible portfolio. We know that a big group of our conventional cigarette consumers are looking for alternative products, and we want to make sure, and that's exactly why we went into this a portfolio products approach to harm reduction. Because consumers are going to make various decisions based on their individual choices, and so we want to make sure we have the best product in each of these categories. And certainly, as you're introducing new categories, you have to invest behind them. But at its essence, it's balancing kind of continued growth and associated cash return to shareholders in conjunction with making investments in turn on combustible portfolio.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. Thank you, Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Bonnie.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital.
Nik Modi:
Good morning, everyone.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Nik.
Nik Modi:
Good morning, Billy. Billy, I understand you guys recently put out a new wholesale program. So I was just hoping you could provide some context on how you hope it will help your marketplace performance? And then my kind of second question, unrelated, and forgive me for being so blunt, so I think it's kind of stating the obvious that the stock has not done well over the last year and some change or two years. And so just as being the CEO now in the seat for a few quarters, how do you think of – what do you tell your investors on how you expect to get this stock price back up and create some value? Thank you, Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Absolutely. Nik, on the wholesale contract that whenever we partner, whether it be with wholesalers or retailers, we really try to listen to their feedback and really establish these contracts where they're winning and we're winning, both the wholesaler and us. And so we feel good about what we've put in place with the new wholesale trade program. We think it meet some of the things that our wholesalers were asking for, but at the same time, positions us to do well as they do well. I think from the stock, you're exactly right, Nik. We feel like it's underperformed. We certainly feel like it's undervalued for the unmatched portfolio we put together. I really believe, we lost some trust with investors, and so we'll be looking to build that back. And we really believe building that back is keeping our tobacco businesses, if you think about cigarettes and our traditional moist smokeless tobacco, keeping those businesses strong, which, we believe, they are in a great position, and you can see the results that they contributed year-to-date thus far. But at the same time, focusing on, if you will, very quality flawless execution against making progress against our 10-year vision and posting those consistent results quarter-to-quarter. So that is what we're focused on. And we believe through time, the investor will hopefully, we can regarner the trust, and they will see the progress we make against achieving our 10-year vision.
Nik Modi:
Good luck. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from line of Gaurav Jain of Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Good morning. How are you?
Billy Gifford:
Good morning.
Gaurav Jain:
So I have three good questions. So one is on the JUUL write-down, which now is almost $11 billion. And I think your capital gains on your ABI stake is about $7 billion. So when that AVI lockup expires next year and you're making a decision of whether to sell or not, then capital gains considerations will not enter the picture. Is that a fair way to think?
Sal Mancuso:
Good morning. This is Sal. Thank you for that question. In terms of the ABI shares, you are absolutely correct, the lockup on the shares do expire October of 2021. And the way I would articulate this is, as we did with the SAB transaction and really other capital allocation decisions, we'll perform our analysis and determine if maintaining interest in ABI is the best use of capital. While 2020 has been a challenging year, over time, our investment in both SAB and ABI has been beneficial. And you are correct in terms of capital gains offsetting capital losses. So I think your comment there is correct. That would be one of the factors as we do our capital allocation analysis.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. That's very helpful. My second question is on the excise tax hike question. So if excise tax is to go up meaningfully, then what your earnings are implementation of minimal cigarette pricing?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I would see those as two different events. Really, from a high excise tax position, when you think of the position of the company, we oppose excise taxes. We think they're aggressive in nature. Certainly, from a standpoint of taxing a small portion of the population to pay usually for programs that benefit the entire population. And so we think of those as separate events and that's our positional high excise taxes.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. Thank you. Last question on that the scope of investments in next-generation products. So when we have rebased the EPS guidance down from 7% to 9%, then to 5% to 8% and then to 4% to 7%. So there were two components of that one was extra investments and then one was 1% loss from JUUL's equity income. So potentially, the scope of investments was about $200 million. So is that still the scope of investments as we look out next year?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I'll be careful not to get too much until next year. I know you guys are interested and we'll certainly provide it at the appropriate time. I go back to my answer I gave, if you think about what we're looking to achieve, it is a balance between continued growth and the associated growth and cash returns to shareholders, and balancing that with investments in the non-combustible portfolio. So there are always puts and takes as you move through time, but that's really what we're going to be guided by as we move forward.
A - Billy Gifford:
Thanks a lot.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.
Michael Lavery:
Good morning. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning.
Michael Lavery:
I know CAGNY feels like a few years ago, but back then, you had laid out some of the purchaser profile for IQOS consumers in Atlanta. And even though, the retail boutiques are important, I'm sure; you had much lower cannibalization from consumers that came through connections through your experts as I think 38% Marlboro users. Can you just update us, if that's still kind of roughly holding? And what amount of your consumers are coming from those expert connections versus the retail boutiques?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, you're right to highlight, Michael. That's exactly what we brought forward at CAGNY. And you can see some of those learnings that we had in Atlanta; we're incorporating as we move to Richmond and certainly learn from both of those as we go into Charlotte. And you heard to the moves that the IQOS team has put in place, introducing consumer interactions at the convenience store channel, at-home delivery. From a standpoint of updating those specific numbers we’ve shown at CAGNY, we will certainly do that at the appropriate time. We want more time to elapse as we progress through. One number I can give you -- remember, we talked about a 0.6 million share in Atlanta of store -- IQOS and stores and distribution, that current number through the quarter was 0.9.
Michael Lavery:
Okay. That's helpful. And then just one other, you had mentioned some pretty encouraging initial awareness momentum in Atlanta as well, I think around 40% as of the second half of '19, any sense of how that might look in a couple of other markets or how it's progressed in Atlanta. Is that moving along pretty well?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think it's important to remember, Michael, we've just introduced the reduced exposure team. And those learnings we got in those -- both Atlanta and Richmond, we have a much more disruptive retail look at Charlotte. So I think those two coupled certainly should drive much higher awareness numbers. It's just too early yet to get the good measure. From a standpoint of the -- it the reduced exposure claims, it's early yet, but it certainly has benefited in driving awareness. So, we're very excited to be able to use that.
Michael Lavery:
Okay. That’s very helpful. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Chris Growe:
Hi, good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning.
Chris Growe:
Hi. I just had a question for, if I could start on Marlboro. The market share was up strongly sequentially. You mentioned as more consumers move back into the cigarette category. There's some risk to Marlboro share. But it performed well. And I just -- give a better sense of the incremental investments you're making behind Marlboro? How are you aiding your share? And then those 27 states where you're investing more heavily, are those the main driver of the market share gains, if you could fill some on that?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. The only difference I would point out, Chris, is we think Marlboro performed very strong all year long. Certainly, as we tried to highlight that we were a panic, we saw consumers moving back from e-vapor into this cigarette category. And we try to highlight, look, those consumers that move back to a bit older adult smoker who we know how, if you will, a preference to discount branded products. So, we feel like Marlboro performed very strong all year long. From a standpoint of investment, I think we've gotten much more efficient and effective with their investments. We've highlighted for you the revenue growth management tool. And you highlighted the 29 states. It's really being very -- using the advanced analytics we've put in place to be very targeted. And what we're looking at is the health of the brand, the performance of the brand, the economic position of our consumers in various geographies and locales. And so, I think we've gotten much more precise and efficient with our resource deployment.
Chris Growe:
And can you say those 29 states, sorry, would be the main driver of the share improvement? Or is it occurring kind of across the country?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I'm hesitant to get too many details around our revenue growth management. We feel like the Marlboro brand is very strong across the U.S. We highlighted that in this pandemic, we've seen the consumer really have a preference for premium branded products. I can remember, through the last downturn, when I sat behind the glass with consumers and focused groups, they would talk about this being a moment in time in their day as they took these usage occasions that brought a bit of normalcy, and they wanted to have a brand that they trusted. So we think that has certainly impacted it some. And we did see some different competitive activity in the second quarter compared to the third.
Chris Growe:
Okay. And I had just one follow-up question for on! it's obviously growing very strongly. I just want to see, is capacity a limiting factor for the brand in your expansion plans. You've made good sequential progress expanding the brand. But is there a capacity limitation there that you would cite? And just curious, if we continue to expect distribution increases for the brand from here?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Certainly, you should expect distribution increases that we are still under a bit of manufacturing capacity constraints. That is on track to what we shared last time. We took the best engineers we had on kind of from the old tobacco space in our moist smokers business. Our best engineers from a high-speed manufacturing in cigarette and I think they're making great progress. Certainly, they had some disruptions around COVID, but we're on track to what we shared last time.
Chris Growe:
Okay. Great. And thank you so much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Chris.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam Spielman:
Hi. Thank you very much. I'd want to follow up some questions previously been given. So I think nic said in effect, your share price is very low. And your reply was we agree it's undervalued. The obvious solution to that is buybacks. If our shares are undervalued buying back makes sense. And I'm wondering what it would take for you to buy back in terms of your balance sheet? Because I look at your balance sheet, and I think it's strong. So that's my first question. Thank you.
Sal Mancuso:
Good morning, Adam, this is Sal, and thank you. It's a really good question. Here's the way I'd like to answer it. If you think about capital allocation for Altria, dividends continue to be the primary vehicle for returning value to our shareholders. And we're fortunate to have a strong balance sheet and operating companies that generate significant cash. As we said, we do agree that the stock is undervalued. But we continue to be in the middle of a pandemic, and we believe that maintaining a higher-than-normal cash balance is really the most prudent strategy to support our operating companies and our strategies going forward. But you're right, we'll continue to evaluate expectations of business performance, the impact on adult tobacco consumers of the pandemic, the general environment and really make our recommendations to the Board of Directors the best way we can and at the appropriate time, we will think about all aspects of capital allocation.
Adam Spielman:
Is there a specific target you have for that EBITDA, for example, that would allow you to make a recommendation to the Board for buy backs?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Adam, I think I understand your question. There is a specific target in mind. Certainly, we want to always have debt management in mind when we think about that capital allocation process. Certainly, we -- dividend is a top priority for us. And when you think about share buybacks, that's always top of mind as well. And so we look at that in the capital allocation process, but we don't have any specific target in mind.
Adam Spielman:
Okay. So moving on, on your -- so thank you very much, always sort of look at your metrics. And in the second sheet, you gave the cigarette industry volume decomposition estimate, which is always very useful. So thank you for that. And in the last 12 months, you -- this tells me that macroeconomic and other factors have increased the cigarettes industry by 2.1 percentage points. Can I just understand what that means. I interpreted to say, if there was a normal year without any impact from COVID and the pandemic and state home orders, effectively, your volume -- sorry, industry volumes would fall about two percentage points. In other words, I think of this as saying, well, actually, the pandemic has caused a huge numbers of surpluses and minuses, but net-net, it's clearly benefited tobacco consumption in the last 12 months. And in a normal year, cigarette volumes will be just two percentage points lower. And we know 2021 isn't going to be an year, but it will. Is that the right way to read that, that 2.1 percentage points?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Adam, when you look at the sheet, those macroeconomics, we tried to highlight what we really felt like that was driving that. Certainly, government stimulus over the last 12 months has been a piece of it. Discretionary spend having more availability to our consumer base as they spend less in gas and entertainment and other types of discretionary spend. I hear your point on what you're trying to make. I think it's just tough because the situation is always different. And you're exactly right. That's what we try to provide this because this is a snapshot of the last 12 months. But it's hard to say, oh, if everything on this aspect of it was exactly the same, this would be the answer. So I just caution you from that. But we do try to provide this to say, look, when we call volume change over the last 12 months based on the circumstances of those last 12 months, here's how it plays out.
Adam Spielman:
And then okay. So that's very helpful. Then a quick question on the PMTA process. How do you -- obviously, you have said very clearly that you hope FDA basically cleans out some of the e-vapor companies that are not, let's say, compliant. The question is, have you actually seen any of that yet?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. From a standpoint, you may have seen -- what I've seen, Adam, is that the FDA talked about publishing, if you will, a compliant product list to retailers and wholesalers, so that they are aware of those products that had submitted. I haven't seen that published yet. I think when you boil it down to the essence is exactly what you said, Adam is enforcement is necessary. And so the FDA just needs to find the right method that works for them to be able to enforce that only those products that -- and manufacturers that are meeting the of the FDA are remaining in the marketplace. I think that's appropriate from a manufacturer standpoint, and most importantly, appropriate from a consumer standpoint as they're making their choices at retail.
Adam Spielman:
Okay. And my final question, I'm sorry for asking so many. Clearly, with the new JUUL valuation, as you say yourself, you've done a cash flow analysis. I'm sure there are a range of scenarios you've considered. But I wonder if you could just please tell us sort of what sort of scale of e-vapor do you expect to see in two or three years' time? And to be precise, it is in your valuation, what sort of scale of e-vapor in the market do you see in two or three years?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I appreciate the question. I mean, you're exactly right. We do run a range of scenarios, and that's all been built into that valuation. I think when you think about the potential for e-vapor to contribute to harm reduction in the U.S., we think it's extremely important for the FDA to continue to allow e-vapor in the marketplace. Here's what will shape the size of the e-vapor category. It really is this regulatory process. From a standpoint of how does the FDA think about the science, think about the conversion of cigarette consumers to e-vapor and what products they approve. I think another factor will be excise taxes, how do the states and the federal government think about excise taxes in e-vapor. And then the final one and this may be longer than your two to three-year window is how products stay relevant to the consumer base? How do they improve through time? How do they satisfy? Certainly, we've seen some products in the marketplace satisfying consumers for conversion. But then if the consumer continues to evolve, does the product base keep up with that? So those are the three main factors that will shape, if you will, how large the e-vapor category grows through time.
Adam Spielman:
And when you've come up with that $1.6 billion valuation, I mean how those factors play out in your models?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Adam, I don't want to go to that level. Just know that we run a range of scenarios. So I could pick the average, but that wouldn't be very helpful to you, nor would try to give you the range. And so, those are the factors we considered in updating those ranges scenarios from the size of what e-vapor could be,
Adam Spielman:
Okay. Well, thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Adam.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes of Robert Rampton of UBS.
Robert Rampton:
Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. First is, I'm interested in how menthol cigarettes have been banned in Massachusetts for some time now for over the quarter, interested to know what you're seeing in terms of consumer behavior there?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. It's tough to tell and state the size of Massachusetts. From a standpoint, certainly no menthol cigarettes are being sold in Massachusetts through legal channels. We really believe when you step back from the action taken in Massachusetts, it's really, we believe, the best decision-making body in the government is the FDA because they can look at the science and evidence and make appropriate decisions. If you recall, when we submitted comments to the FDA, we talked about this type of action taken on menthol could really harm the future of reduced harm in the marketplace for consumers because it has the opportunity to open up illicit trade. And I think, if you've been following Massachusetts closely, they had some instances with at the ages cracking down there on some of the illicit trade. And so, it's tough to tell and state the size of Massachusetts and some of the activities that are taking place there.
Robert Rampton:
Great. Thank you, very much. And sorry, my next question, just looking at the 3Q stand-alone, as it was previously flagged, you give that helpful 12-month rolling estimate of the drivers of volume decline. Just wondering if you can give us a bit more insight into in this quarter, what you'd attribute to the macro bucket you flagged? And within that macro bucket, I know it's difficult maybe don't want to, but what is attributable to, say, lower gas prices versus fiscal transfers and so on. Any color you can give there, additional color would be helpful?
Billy Gifford:
Sure. Certainly, the factors were present in the third quarter. The ones you mentioned certainly spending less on gas, spending less on some of the entertainment and other discretionary spend were certainly present. The only caution I would give you is when you look at a very short period of time, the dissecting of it, really to build a trend through time, and that's why we go with the 12 months ended. We think that's a better indicator of kind of how the consumer is behaving through time versus a very short period of time and a window there.
Robert Rampton:
Great. Okay. Thank you very much. That’s it for me.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to management for closing remarks.
Billy Gifford:
So thank you. Altria's tobacco businesses have a track record of delivering strong and consistent financial performance in challenging environments. We continue to reward our shareholders by returning a significant amount of cash in the form of dividends. We believe our tobacco business platform has the winning brands and is unmatched. And we're excited to make further progress in achieving our vision of responsibly transitioning smokers to a non-combustible future. Thanks again for joining us, and please stay safe, and contact our Investor Relations team if you have further questions.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2020 Second Quarter and First Half Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Adrian. Good morning and thank you for joining us. This morning Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO and Sal Mancuso our CFO will discuss Altria's second quarter business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, and quarterly metrics are all available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2019. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks Max. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. Despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., our employees continue to execute against our 10 year vision with strong focus and commitment. Over the first half of 2020 we believe Altria showed resilience in volatile conditions, growing adjusted diluted earnings per share by 8.5%, driven by the outstanding financial performance of our core tobacco businesses. Combined the smokeable and all tobacco products segments grew adjusted OCI by nearly 11% and expanded adjusted OCI margins by nearly 2.5 percentage points. We've also hit key milestones and made steady progress behind our non-combustible product portfolio. Specifically FDA's recent authorization will permit PM USA to market IQOS and HeatSticks as modified risk tobacco products with a reduced exposure claim. PM USA launched IQOS in Charlotte, it's third league market. Helix submitted PMTAs with the FDA for all 35 all in products which are now in scientific review. And Helix continues to expand manufacturing capacity and distribution for all. We're excited to reaccelerate our engagement with adult smokers looking for alternatives to their traditional cigarettes in pursuit of our vision to responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to a non-combustible future. Before diving deeper into our business results I'd like to take a moment to address the social change underway in the United States and globally. Like many other companies we are operating in the context of important and long overdue societal change. The recent senseless death of black Americans show that systemic racism and social injustice still widely exist today. Our black and brown colleagues have faced these injustices for far too long. Black Lives Matter and we must take meaningful actions to drive long lasting change. We understand the significant work ahead of us and we have taken a number of initial steps including holding courageous conversations that provide a safe platform for our black colleagues to share their experiences as others seek to listen and understand. Partnering with Unifi our black employee network to identify internal opportunities and create action plans, deploying the responsible removal of confederate statues in our hometown, on June 19th raising the Juneteenth flag at our facilities, and declared the day a company paid holiday for healing and reflection and committing an initial $5 million to primarily support criminal justice reform and black owned business development. Earlier this year, we established aspirational inclusion and diversity aiming points for our organization. We recognize that achieving our 10 year vision will require us to think and act differently. Our organization needs to better reflect the diversity of the world around us, and all of our employees should feel fully included and empowered to contribute to our success. These aiming points include achieving at our VP and above levels 50:50 gender parity and a composition of at least 30% ethnically diverse executives, which we determine using the composition of the U.S. college educated workforce and projections of population demographic changes. Currently, approximately 30% of our VPs are women and 15% are ethnically diverse. We're committed to driving change. We will hold ourselves accountable and expect to report on progress periodically. This is a top priority for Altria and the communities where we live and work. Let's now turn to our results. Altria’s second quarter adjusted, diluted earnings per share grew nearly 1% from the prior year as growth in our adjusted operating company's income was offset by lower contributions from our equity investment in ABI. We believe a mix of macroeconomic factors in the second quarter influenced adult tobacco consumer behavior. While the pandemic led to a historic unemployment rates, federal government efforts through stimulus checks and increased unemployment benefits helped to ease economic hardship for low and middle income Americans. And these efforts have likewise benefited our adult tobacco consumers. As a result of local restrictions, we believe adult tobacco consumers reduce purchases from non-tobacco discretionary items like gas, transit, and entertainment contributing to an increase in available discretionary income. Adult tobacco consumers continue to make fewer trips to the store, but increased their tobacco expenditures by buying more packs and cans per trip. We also believe fewer social engagements allow for more tobacco usage occasions. All of these factors contributed to improved tobacco industry volume performance in the second quarter. Moving to our reporting segments, our smokeable products segment strategy is to maximize profitability while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of our non-combustible products. In the second quarter, adjusted OCI increased 3.3%, driven by higher pricing and lower costs, which more than offset lower volumes. For the first half, the segment generated strong adjusted OCI growth of 10.9%. Second quarter reported domestic cigarette volumes in the smokeable products segment decreased by 8.8%, which primarily reflected the impact of trade inventory movements in both the current and prior year periods. For the first half, reported, domestic cigarette volumes decreased 1.9%. When adjusted for trade inventories, calendar differences and other factors, first half cigarette volumes decreased by an estimated 3%. For the industry, we estimate, adjusted domestic cigarette volumes were unchanged in the second quarter compared to the year ago period and declined 1% in the first half. As we discussed in our first quarter earnings results, first quarter industry volumes benefited from pantry loading in March and we expected to see this payback in the second quarter. Due to the macro economic factors we described earlier that impacted adult tobacco consumer’s behavior, we saw only minimal volume payback in the second quarter as underlying demand remained consistent across the quarter. Looking over the past four quarters, adjusted domestic cigarette volume declines steadily moderated since the third quarter of 2019, driven primarily by a reduction in cross category movement. The cigarette category has demonstrated resilience and based on year-to-date industry volume performance, we revised our 2020 estimated full year adjusted cigarette industry volume decline rate to a range of 2% to 3.5% from our previous estimate of 4% to 6%. Marlboro second quarter retail share, the total cigarette category was 42.8%, down six tenths versus the year ago period. As you'll recall, earlier this year we noted an increase in the number of adult smokers aged 50 plus who moved from the e-vapor category back into cigarettes benefiting volumes from Marlboro and the cigarette category. This demographic has a greater tendency to purchase discount brands than younger adult smokers, which increased discount segment share at the start of the year. We believe the effect of this dynamic will have a lingering impact on Marlboro’s year-over-year retail share comparisons through 2020. Sequentially, Marlboro was stable in the second quarter. We believe PM USA’s strategic investments in innovative loyalty programs, resealable packaging, and its leading trade programs reinforce the strength of Marlboro and position it well to deliver on its long term profit potential. In discount total segment retail share grew four tenths year-over-year, but declined three tenths sequentially to 24.5%. Sequential share losses in both branded and deep discount products drove the discount share contraction. We continue to be pleased with the performance of PM USA’s branded discount offerings and their increased profitability over time. So both our industry volume and down trading expectations, we will continue to monitor the factors we described earlier that influenced adult tobacco consumer behavior in the first half. We believe our smokeable businesses have the right tools in place to help successfully navigate through these uncertain times. Turning now to a non-combustible portfolio, we're excited to continue expanding our non-combustible product offerings and making progress towards our 10 year vision. We believe all tobacco products, e-vapor, and heated tobacco, presents significant opportunities for adult smoker conversion to non-combustible products. The strategy of our oral tobacco products segment is to maximize profitability over time and traditional MST through the strength of Copenhagen and to responsibly and rapidly grow on! oral nicotine pouches. So oral tobacco products segment grew adjusted OCI by 8.1% in the second quarter and 10.5% for the first half, driven by higher pricing and volume, which more than offset investments in on!. Reported domestic oral tobacco products segment volumes increased 2.8% in the first half. When adjusted for calendar differences, trade inventory movements, and other factors volumes were unchanged in the first half. For the oral tobacco industry, volumes increased by an estimated 6% over the last six months, driven by the growth of oral nicotine pouches. In the second quarter total oral tobacco products segment retail share declined three percentage points to 50%. Copenhagen's retail share declined two percentage points to 32.1%, primarily driven by the growth of oral nicotine pouches. We're excited about the progress Helix is making in oral nicotine pouches. Helix’s top priorities are to increase manufacturing capacity and expand on’s! retail footprint. Helix continues to install manufacturing equipment and expects to remove capacity constraints in 2021. Retail distribution for on! continues to steadily increase and Helix expects to continue its store expansion this year. At the end of the second quarter, on! was sold in the top six chains for oral tobacco volumes and in over 40,000 stores, an increase of nearly 43% since the first quarter. Helix is testing various go to market strategies for on! including the use of our innovative tobacco product picture [ph] space at retail. We believe on! is proving to be a competitive product and has been successful with both adult smokers and dippers. Based on our analysis of purchases in a large convenience chain, 37% of on! purchasers were exclusive cigarette smokers as compared with 23% [indiscernible]. On's! ability to attract adult smokers is important in achieving our 10 year vision, as today there are approximately 40 million U.S. adult smokers, compared with approximately 6 million U.S. adults dippers. We attribute on's! early success to the variety of nicotine strengths and flavors in its portfolio. Additionally, on! is attracting female tobacco consumers due to its spitless, white, and compact format. On’s! rectangular shape packaging also distinguishes it from traditional MST products. Our data indicates that women now account for 30% of adult oral tobacco derived nicotine consumers as compared to only 5% of adult dippers. We believe our ability to successfully navigate the regulatory process and communicate potential reduced term benefits of our non-combustible tobacco products is critical to achieving our vision. In May, Helix submitted comprehensive PMTA's for all 35 on! SKUs with the FDA. And in June, the FDA moved the applications into scientific review. We've also started the foundational work for a future modified risk application for on!. In e-vapor total estimated volumes in the second quarter decreased 14% versus a year ago. We believe the e-vapor category growth may encounter a pause over the next few years as many products will be removed from the market if PMTA’s are not submitted or FDA does not grant market authorization. All manufacturers are required to submit PMTA's by September 9th. In heated tobacco we're very pleased with the recent FDA authorization to market IQOS as a modified risk tobacco product, with a reduced exposure claim. IQOS is the first next generation product to receive an MRTP and meet the standard of benefiting the population as a whole. PM USA is making the necessary preparations to communicate the reduced exposure claim to adult smokers, which includes developing new marketing assets and submitting them to the FDA in advance of using them. We view this as a significant step towards our vision and we're looking forward to communicating with adult smokers the additional benefits of switching to IQOS. We're excited to get back on track with our IQOS rollout and our future expansion plans to accelerate adult smoker conversion. As many parts of the country began lifting restrictions in June PM USA reopened the Atlanta and Richmond IQOS boutiques and just last week launched IQOS in its third lead market by opening a boutique in the South Park Mall in Charlotte. In Charlotte, PM USA launched a more disruptive retail fixture that communicates the benefits of real tobacco, no ash, and less odor and expects to begin HeatSticks distribution to retail stores in the next few weeks. By the end of August, we expect HeatSticks to be in a total of 700 retail stores across the three lead markets. PM USA will continue to leverage its IQOS retail ecosystem, including IQOS mobile, popup, and kiosk retail format which allows for more strategic and agile marketing plans. We're making several digital enhancements to the IQOS website. The website now includes virtual tutorials and the expert video chat functionality will be available this fall. These digital enhancements and the ability to have devices delivered to smokers in lead markets with the proper age verification will provide smokers with flexible options to learn about and access IQOS. Over the next 18 months, PM USA plans to launch IQOS in four new markets with large adult smoker populations and expand the availability of IQOS devices through retail partnerships. PM USA also plans to expand HeatSticks distribution to the surrounding geographies and all seven IQOS markets. PM USA expects to use its first mover advantage to expand IQOS responsibly and in a disciplined manner. Our commercialization strategy is based on the learnings from our IQOS lead markets and PMI’s international results paired with our desire to continue avoiding use by unintended audiences. We believe that a sustained focus on the consumer journey from awareness to conversion is the key to achieving our vision. Word of mouth among IQOS users and their fellow adult smokers has been a critical factor to the global success of IQOS. Their commercialization approach is designed to maximize the organic growth potential of IQOS by focusing first on the densely populated metro areas and then expanding outwards as the user base grows. Our IQOS agreement with PMI has two important milestones. First, PM USA would maintain exclusive license for IQOS upon achieving a five tenth dollar share of the cigarette category in a single geographic area within a specified time period, by April 2022. And second, our distribution agreement has an initial five year term expiring in April 2024. The initial term has a performance objective of reaching a five tenth dollar share of the cigarette category in a certain number of geographic areas, each within a specified time period. Once achieved PM USA has the option to renew for an additional five year term. Based on the early results we've seen in Atlanta and Richmond and our robust expansion plans, we believe PM USA will achieve the performance objectives. We're excited to continue building IQOS momentum and executing our expansion plans. Turning to guidance. We've seen outstanding performance from our quarterback businesses in the first half. Because we now have a better understanding of COVID-19 impacts on adult tobacco consumer purchasing behavior and an additional quarter of ABI earnings contributions, we're reestablishing full year 2020 adjusted diluted EPS guidance. We now expect 2020 full year adjusted EPS to be in a range of $4.21 to $4.38. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of flat to 4% from a $4.21 base in 2019. Our guidance accounts for a range of scenarios. However, we're still facing a dynamic and quickly changing external environment and we're monitoring ABI performance. Our first half results were strong and reflected ABI's fourth and first quarter results. As we account ABI’s results on a one quarter lag, we expect the year-over-year equity income comparisons to be more difficult in our second half. We also continue to monitor conditions for adult tobacco consumers, including unemployment rates, disposable income, and purchasing behaviors. These factors could be influenced by government decisions or future stimulus and unemployment benefit payments. Looking beyond 2020, we will continue to balance earnings growth with making appropriate investments in pursuit of our mission. Our re-established EPS guidance reflects a 2020 full year adjusted effective tax rate expectation in a range of 24% to 26%. Our adjusted effective tax rate increased from 24% in the first quarter to 24.4% in the second quarter, primarily driven by reduced tax benefits as a result of ABI's dividend reduction in June. I will now turn it over to Sal to provide more details on our financial performance, our alcohol and cannabis assets, and capital allocation.
Sal Mancuso:
Thanks, Billy. Let me first provide some additional detail on the smokeable products segment. Segment adjusted OCI margins expanded 3.4 percentage points to 57.8% for the second quarter and 2.6 percentage points to 56.5% for the first half. We believe our strong top line performance has been aided by our revenue growth management framework, which allows us to more efficiently and effectively employ promotional resources. We achieved strong net price realization of 6.4% in the second quarter and 7.7% for the first half. We're continuing to enhance our RTM toolkit and recently introduced manufacturer supported of invoice promotions for Marlboro in select states. This enhancement allows us to more efficiently support Marlboro in key geographies. In cigars, Middleton’s reported volume increased 5.4% in the first half. Black & Mild continues to be the leader in the profitable cigar segment. Middleton is successfully navigating the FDA regulatory process with market orders covering over 90% of its current volume and plans to address the remaining volume with the submissions prior to the September 9th deadline. In oral tobacco products segment Copenhagen continues to be the leading MST brand. And Copenhagen Packs is contributing to the brand's continued relevance with adult dippers through its satisfying combination of the two fastest growing MST segments of Wintergreen and Pouch. U.S. STC has expanded Copenhagen Packs into 20,000 stores across 36 states. Oral tobacco products segment adjusted OCI margins decreased 1.2 percentage points to 72.8% in the second quarter. Investments behind on impacted adjusted OCI margins, which we expect to continue as we seek to expand its retail footprint in our manufacturing capacity. We remain pleased with the oral tobacco segments, strong adjusted OCI margin performance. Turning to alcohol assets, the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted our second quarter results. In wine, Ste. Michelle continues to operate in a highly competitive category. Adjusted OCI decreased 21.1% in the second quarter, driven primarily by lower on premise and direct to consumer sales. Ste. Michelle has started a strategic reset to maximize profitability and improve long-term cash flows. In beer, we recorded $98 million of adjusted equity earnings in the second quarter, representing Altria’s share of ABI's first quarter 2020 results and a decrease of 43.4% from last year. Turning to cannabis, in the second quarter we recorded an adjusted loss of $17 million related to our Cronos investment, which primarily represents our share of Cronos’s adjusted first quarter 2020 results. Cronos is executing its strategy of developing disruptive intellectual property and building iconic brands. We believe Cronos is making progress in executing its asset light strategy. Recently, Cronos in partnership with Gingko Bioworks successfully produced one of their target cannabinoids using fermentation in an R&D test setting. This is an important step toward the company's goal of producing cannabinoids at large scale that can drive future cost efficiency and product consistency. Cronos remains a long term strategic investment. We believe legalized cannabis market in the U.S. presents a tremendous growth opportunity. We reiterate the importance of an appropriate regulatory framework and intend to work with policymakers and regulators to create a responsible U.S. cannabis market. Turning to capital allocation, we're pleased to announce that yesterday our Board declared the quarterly dividend ahead of our normally scheduled declaration date. The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.86 per share, representing a new annualized dividend rate of $3.44 per share. This represents an increase of 2.4% from the previous annualized rate of $3.36 per share and marks the 55th dividend increase in the past 51 years. Our balance sheet is strong and our core tobacco businesses continue to generate significant cash. During the second quarter, we issued $2 billion of senior unsecured notes and paid back the $3 billion that we borrowed under our revolving credit agreement in March. At the end of the second quarter, we had $4.8 billion in cash on hand. And after making our dividend and income tax payments in July, our current cash balance is approximately $3 billion. We expect to continue to maintain a higher cash balance than normal to preserve financial flexibility. Before Q&A, I'd like to provide some highlights on the progress we are making in our ESG efforts. In June we published our 2019 Corporate Responsibility Progress Report, which is available on altria.com. For our environmental efforts, we've been systematically reducing our environmental footprint and we're pleased with the science based target initiatives, recent approval of the carbon reduction goals we set for 2030. Among other important ESG effort -- ESG focus areas we are committed to having a diverse Board and Management Team that reflects the organizations they lead. More than half of our Board Members are women or ethnically diverse. As for the diversity of our management, as Billy shared earlier, we've set aiming points that we will be accountable for reaching. We continue to make ESG progress and look forward to sharing more as we advance in these efforts. That concludes our remarks and we'll be happy to take your questions. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel.
Christopher Growe:
Hi, good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Chris.
Christopher Growe:
Good morning, thank you for the time. I want to ask you first of all, as we think about your outlook for the cigarette category, which is obviously showing a marked improvement in relation to previous expectations. I'm just curious how we associate that outlook with your outlook for the consumer. So do you expect a weaker consumer picture in the second half and did that inform your second half outlook? And then as I think about what happened in the quarter where Marlboro’s share was flat sequentially and even discount share was down a little bit sequentially, do you expect those to reverse a bit or change a bit in the second half based on your outlook for volume?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, thanks for the questions Chris. First on volume, I think it's important to remember how fluid the environment is out there. In the second quarter, we didn't see a lot of pressure for the consumer to experience the need to down trade because we saw government stimulus and the unemployment benefits being paid by the government. Now, we know that's in front of the government right now and they're considering it, but it's still somewhat of an unknown until they are able to pass something. And we certainly think if they do, it will benefit the adult tobacco consumer. From a standpoint of as we progress through the year, I think it's important to remember the comparisons for the first half were a bit easier comps than they will be in the second half. Remember last year the cigarette category peaked its decline at 6%, then it receded to 5.5% in the third, and then down to 4.5% in the fourth. So a little bit tougher comparisons were also included in that forecast. But it's a fluid environment and it's something that we'll continue to monitor. As far as Marlboro share, your second question, we're very pleased with the way Marlboro performed in the marketplace in the second quarter. You mentioned sequentially it was flat. I think what you saw is that manufacturers responded to the COVID-19 pandemic differently. We saw some of our competitive manufacturers discount across the entire brand portfolio of certain brands but without RGM tools we felt like we could provide for the Marlboro consumer that was facing any economic hardship, a pretty safe landing by really discounting a portion of our Marlboro brand. And so with the RGM tools and with the sequential shift, we're very pleased with how Marlboro performed from first to second quarter.
Christopher Growe:
That's great, thank you. And I had just one quick follow-up on IQOS and a question there on your marketing strategy, and I'm thinking about sort of as you ended of the quarter, do you expect to expand the product as you get more -- once you have the approved marketing claims from the FDA, I know you're trying to get a new device, a device approved, and you expect this reduced exposure more prominently featured going forward in the marketing again, once it's approved by the FDA?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I think you touched on the two key points, Chris. One was the MRTP approval and as I mentioned, we have to produce those assets and then get them approved or send them to the FDA 30 days ahead of using them in the marketplace. I think the other that you mentioned was version three, and that application has been filed with the FDA. And so we'll see how that progresses. I don't want to lead you to believe that we will slow down and wait for that. But certainly you can imagine putting your best foot forward in any new lead markets by having both the MRTP claim as well as the version three with the enhancements that are there on version three. And I think as we move forward, we'll just have to balance that and that's why for competitive reasons we didn't mention the four markets, but we're also balancing how COVID is progressing in various states around the U.S. And so all of that will factor in as we make additional expansion decisions.
Christopher Growe:
Okay, thank you very much. I appreciate your time.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer with Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
Thank you and good morning. Thank you so much for that incremental detail on your consumer demographic with on!. Clearly very compelling in terms of the attractiveness of the proposition, both to cigarette smokers as well as to women. I'm curious, Billy, as you kind of reflect on this early success, any takeaways if you juxtapose some of those consumer demographics relative to what you saw early days in the snus category or even in the e-cigarette category? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, thanks for the question, Vivien. I think you're exactly right. Look, we're very excited. Now the caveat that with this early on and we're expanding as fast as we can, but we're very excited about the attraction it has to both smokers and dippers and we want to make sure that we capitalize on that. As well as the attraction to the female consumer. I mentioned that in my remarks, but we believe the rectangular packaging has something to do with it, to distinguish it from if you will, traditional MST in the consumers minds as they're making decisions, as well as the variety of strengths and flavors that we have. And we think all of that plays into the consumer and our ability to disrupt them as they're making purchases in the marketplace. So we're moving as fast as we can on manufacturing capacity. So that's no longer a constraint as we progress into 2021 and remove that constraint in 2021 and then get it to the stores where we want it to be. And so we're extremely excited about what we've got in place with plans for on!.
Vivien Azer:
That's really helpful, thank you. Just to follow up on that, is it fair to assume that with snus that category over indexed to dippers relative to what you're seeing with on!?
Billy Gifford:
That is correct Vivien. I think when you looked at it in the consumer's mind, at least what we heard qualitatively is that they saw that as in the traditional MST category, both for the packaging as well as having tobacco that you're putting in your mouth. I think the distinction with on! is that it's white, it's very discrete, variety of strengths and flavors, and it's more intriguing from what we're hearing from consumers in the marketplace.
Vivien Azer:
Got it. Thanks for that. And I will just squeeze one last one in. In terms of your investment in Cronos, there's certainly some growing chatter around potential regulatory change depending on the outcome of the election, of course. But to the extent that the Democrats are able to take control of the Senate and the White House, it does set up for a pretty -- potential for a pretty meaningful change in terms of U.S. candidates regulation. So I'd love to hear your thoughts on how the election as a potential catalyst would change your thinking on the Cronos investment? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, so to be clear we support federal legalization and regulation of cannabis. And to your point, we could see, look, we've been successful under both Republicans and Democrats. We support both their G&A efforts. And so it remains to be seen how the election will turn out. But we certainly support appropriate regulation because we believe it prevents underage use, it implements consistent regulatory controls and quality standards across the entire industry, and we really believe it advances the science and addresses social justice issues. So that's why we are -- we think it's important under either a Republican or Democratic administration to have the legalization so that the right regulatory framework is put in place in the U.S.
Vivien Azer:
Understood, thanks very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
Hi, good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning.
Pamela Kaufman:
Can you talk about your full year guidance, it implies a relatively wide range for back half earnings and I guess can you touch on some of the drivers influencing that range and what do you see as some of the factors needed to reinstate your mid-term earnings growth algorithm?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I'll take them in reverse order, Pamela. I think on the midterm look, we're in unprecedented times, as you see on the news, it changes daily with where hot spots are across the U.S. And so we monitor that. But there's a lot of uncertainty around how things will stay open or shut down and how the consumer will be impacted. As well as the economic stimulus, whether there will be another version of that that passes through Congress and gets enacted. So there's a lot of uncertainty. That's why you see a bit of the broader range and then I highlighted in the remarks our equity investment in ABI, they have a global exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic. They're doing a very good job of monitoring that and making changes as necessary. But again, on a much broader scale on a global basis having to respond to that, those would be the major factors in the wider range and what we see as we go through the remainder of this year.
Pamela Kaufman:
Great. And can you discuss how you're thinking about the relative contribution to improved industry cigarette volumes from higher stimulus and unemployment benefits versus more opportunity to smoke and the shift back from e-cigs and does the performance this year influence your outlook for a long-term industry volume declines?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I think you touched on the two major factors, Pamela. I think the first was the stimulus certainly benefited, as I mentioned, both the lower and middle income Americans. And included in that, of course, is our adult tobacco consumers. So they certainly benefited from that, as well as the lower discretionary output for non-tobacco items, less commuting, so less gas, less entertainment. So they had more discretionary income from not spending as much in that non-tobacco discretionary space. I think the other factor that you mentioned was really related to the movement of consumers back to cigarettes from e-vapor, as we saw the FDA regulation of banning flavors outside of tobacco and menthol in the marketplace. And that consumer was faced with choices. Now, that tentative SKU as I said older adult smokers and we know older adult smokers tend to see discount. It benefited the entire cigarette category, but certainly it's skewed to the discount side. And so when you think about that, it's a bit early on to tease out the exact impact from both of those but that's something that we'll continue to monitor as we move forward.
Pamela Kaufman:
Great. And just one last question. I guess, how are you thinking about the implications to the industry from the upcoming presidential election and the likelihood of a potential federal excise tax increase obviously, that's something that's on investor’s minds and maybe you can just touch on how you managed the prior excise tax increase?
Billy Gifford:
Sure. I think if you look at it, certainly both the federal government and state governments have racked up significant bills in their response to the COVID-19 pandemic. I think certainly they will look for or turn to at the appropriate time on how to pay for those bills. And certainly excise taxes could be part of that. We have an extremely strong government affairs team that regularly engages on that. As far as whether it's Democratic or Republican, I think if you look back in our history, we've shown we know how to successfully navigate both of those administrations. And so we feel like we have the right tools in place, we have a strong government affairs team, we support both sides of the aisle, and so we feel like we have the right tools in place and the right employee base to navigate that successfully.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I have a question on your guidance. First, could you tell us what is factored into your guidance this year in terms of the future stimulus packages that assumed, basically did your guidance assume the worst, I'm just trying to understand that? And then second, I'd be curious to hear from you why you're not comfortable in reinstating your three year guidance. I guess I am, a bit surprised since it feels like you guys have enough visibility to re-establish your EPS guidance and industry volume guidance this year. But as you look out of the long term, is there something changing, with the resilience of this category that makes you unsure, so if you could just touch on that, I would appreciate it?
Billy Gifford:
Sure, I would agree with you wholeheartedly, Bonnie, that the category is resilient. I think, and again, I'll take them in reverse order, the three year guidance it is just because the external environment is so fluid. I mentioned earlier the stimulus and whether the stimulus continues or doesn't continue. I mentioned various hot spots popping up around the U.S. and how that could impact the consumer's ability to go out and get products and then how it impacts their overall outlook on their economic situation will be a factor of both of those. I think from the stimulus standpoint and its impact on guidance, look, we were on a range of scenarios when we provide guidance. And so we factor in, if you will, worst case and best case and we try to really provide guidance based on what we think is the right combination of those scenarios. And so that's why you see a bit wider guidance based on those as well as, as I mentioned, the ABI. And so that's why we felt like we reestablished the appropriate guidance range.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay, that's helpful. And then I also wanted to ask about your share, I do get a lot of questions from investors and so I'd be curious to hear from you how you guys are thinking about really your total cigarette retail share, is 49% this quarter, which I think has been the lowest it's been for almost 10 years. So, I'm curious to hear from your perspective if this is worrisome to you and then, what do you think have been some of the key drivers of this share loss? And then, as we think about your guidance, does that imply, year-over-year share losses will continue in the second half or is there something that you're implementing and I'm thinking about the recent pricing actions that may start to minimize some of the share losses?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I think it's important to remember Bonnie that the overall strategy we employ in the cigarette category is to maximize profitability over the long-term while balancing investments in Marlboro and funding the future growth of our noncombustible portfolio. So that's the overall strategy we have in cigarettes. As far as share, I mentioned earlier, we're very pleased with what we saw from first quarter to second quarter with Marlboro. We're pleased with the increased profitability in the category as you saw from the OCI, as well as the increase of gross margin if you will in both Marlboro as well as our brands discount offerings. We will compete in the brands discount, but profitability will be a major factor in the way we compete in that branded discount category. You'll remember we're a premium focused company, we participate in branded discount, but it has to be at the right profitability. We're very pleased with where we were at with from a share standpoint and especially on Marlboro. It's something that we monitor. Remember, when we look at the health of a brand, we really look across four factors; profitability is one, share is one, it's the equity score, the equity strength of the brand, which is both remaining popular and is it remaining relevant, meaning is it keeping pace with the consumer as they evolve. And then the final one of the four is demographics. And we look at that at age cohorts of 10 years, starting at 21 and going up. And we're really looking to see if we're engaging appropriately across those age cohorts based on the overall share of the brand. So we feel good about Marlboro, but it's certainly something we'll monitor. As we you know, I mentioned the economic pressures that consumers could face potentially in the second half. However, we have the right tools in place. And I think we've shown we know how to navigate that type of environment in these uncertain times.
Bonnie Herzog:
That was really helpful, Billy, and I think it is important, I think it's quite impressive to the margin expansion that you've been showing, as you mentioned. And so it's really that balance. If I may just squeeze one last question on IQOS and your agreement with Philip Morris. You know, curious why you felt it was important to share two of the milestones at this point. I guess I'm asking because historically you've been quite guarded with providing a lot of details about your business so for me, it raised, maybe a bit of a question? And then second, the bar to achieve the milestone seems relatively low given the time frame even with COVID, everything going on this year, so wondering, really what the incentives are to achieve greater market share from your perspective and how much you're willing to invest, especially of IQOS it is margin dilutive for you guys relative to your core cig business, just trying to understand how you're going to manage that? Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Sure, sure. I appreciate the additional question Bonnie. I think when you think about the disclosure, we thought it was good disclosure with where we're at and making progress against the expansion plans for IQOS. So we really felt it was important for the investor to know that term and so we disclosed that. As you mentioned we've been fairly quiet because we have crossed confidentiality in place with PMI on the detailed terms of the agreement. But we did feel like it was good disclosure as we continue to make progress against expanding IQOS in the lead markets. From a standpoint of how we're thinking about balancing, we're going to invest the appropriate dollars behind IQOS. We think it can be very successful in the U.S. If you look at the total length of time of the agreement that's currently in place, 10 years. 10 years is a long time and so we're going to make the appropriate investments. Certainly we feel like we can meet the performance objectives and then thinking about that total 10 year runway based on the current agreement. So we feel excited about IQOS and the success it can have in the U.S.
Bonnie Herzog:
Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.
Michael Lavery:
Good morning, thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Michael.
Michael Lavery:
On ABI, you mentioned how the fair value is below carrying value, but that you view that as temporary. And obviously there's hopefully one time transitory environment with the pandemic. But can you just give a sense of how temporary is defined and does it depend on a specific amount of time, is it the nature of the issue that's weighing on that stock, and what if anything should we look for that might consider you to change your view on how to think about assessing that asset?
Sal Mancuso:
Good morning, Michael, this is Sal. You are correct, we have deemed the ABI impairment as a temporary item. Look, we perform a detailed analysis as part of our closing process every quarter. You have seen recent recovery in evaluation of ABI. So we're going to continue to monitor it going forward. But under SEC guidance, we believe that this impairment is temporary and it will recover to our book value for ABI asset.
Michael Lavery:
Okay, thanks, that's helpful and welcome Sal. Just on the margins in smokeable specifically, just would love a little sense of maybe some of the cost piece there, your price mix was very strong, but at a little bit less than the roughly 8% pace of the previous five quarters but your margin expansion was comparable to the five quarter previously average of around 350 basis points. And so I guess the question is just if costs were a bigger driver, is there an acceleration of some of your cost savings initiatives and should we expect those to continue into the second half or with some of that more one time in nature for some of those?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, Michael, I would just caution you to look at this short period of time and try to make comparisons. You have differences in timing of cost that occurred through the year or any given quarter on a year-over-year basis. You're right the cadence of pricing can affect the margin expansion in any short-term period. I think if you step back from that and look at how we've been able to improve margins through time, it has been the leverage you're referring to. It has been very disciplined and very focused on reducing costs through the time as well as pricing. And pricing is really two components, its manufacturer list price and the implementation of revenue growth management. And we really believe the revenue growth management has afforded us the opportunity to really look at the retail promotions we have in the marketplace, be much more efficient and much more precise in where we put those promotions in the marketplace. So when you step back and get out of a short-term period and really look at the three factors, it's really cost, its pricing but pricing is two different pieces, its manufacturer list price as well as the revenue growth management we put in place.
Sal Mancuso:
And Michael I will add the restructured program that we implemented last year, the savings happened over the course of the year, more towards the back-end of the year. So you are lapping that. But cost management is part of our ongoing management of the business. We take a very strategic approach and it is an important leverage that we just said as we think about margins in our tobacco businesses.
Michael Lavery:
Okay, thank you, that's helpful. And then just one last one on the IQOS rollout, thank you for the color on the kind of 18 month road map and your thinking there. Can you give us a sense of what, if anything, might accelerate that or how flexible are those plans, could you move faster into more markets or is this pretty well set?
Billy Gifford:
No, I think that's what we wanted to mention to investors and analysts today, certainly we always look at what would allow us to move faster if we so desire based on the experience we're having in the marketplace. So we're prepared. We are also balancing that, as I mentioned earlier, with the COVID-19 pandemic that is in different areas in the U.S. at different rates of increase. And so all of that will factor into the speed with what we continue our expansion of IQOS.
Michael Lavery:
Okay, that's great, thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.
Steve Powers:
Yes, hey guys, good morning. Two quick ones for me. Good morning. So Billy, the first one is with respect to on! The confirmation of your ability to hit that 50 million can capacity at the end of the year I think is a good thing just given the delays that we are percolating. But apologies if I missed it but could you talk about the timing of getting to 75 million, which I think originally was the end of year target and should we think about that level as a ceiling for 2021 capacity or are there plans to increase further beyond that level?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, so certainly the 50 million is what we stated for year-end. We also mentioned that we will remove capacity constraints in 2021. I from a personal standpoint, Steve, I'm tired of being behind the curve. So we're going to expand to stay ahead of that demand curve as we move forward. Remember, it's important and I think sometimes it gets overlooked. We closed on this transaction 11 months ago. And when you look at what the employee base here has been able to achieve, it's quite remarkable. We're in 40,000 stores, we've expanded manufacturing capacity, we now produce it out of their N.C. campus here in Richmond, we filed 35 PMTAs with the FDA, we're starting the foundational work. So we're moving very rapidly. But I'm with you. I don't like being behind the curve. I want to get ahead of it.
Steve Powers:
Okay, okay, and then Sal, maybe Billy's desire to get ahead of the curve plays into this a bit, but as I think about that higher cash balance that you're carrying through this COVID period, can you frame your capital allocation priorities, looking out once things, hopefully normalize?
Sal Mancuso:
Yeah look, we think having a higher than normal cash balance during these unprecedented times is prudent and the right thing to do. But we are going to make the investments we need to make in our business obviously. On! is an important product for our future and we're going to make the necessary capital investments. But we are a company that fortunately has a low level of capital expenditures overall, especially for a company of our size. And our capital expenditures tend to be at about the same level of depreciation for the year. When we think about that capital allocation, if you remember, and we've talked about this in the past, after paying dividends and after investing in our business through capital expenditures, we generally have about $1 billion in excess cash. And we run through a very detailed analysis and we think about the best capital allocation for our shareholders and the long-term health of our businesses.
Steve Powers:
Understood. Thank you very much.
Sal Mancuso:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman with Citi.
Adam Spielman:
Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning Adam.
Adam Spielman:
Can I just -- I'd like to ask two follow-up questions and then another one on the IQOS contract. So the first follow-up question is, is really on the on! capacity. And you said that clearly that you don't want to be behind the curve in terms of capacity in 2021. And I just wonder if you can be a little bit more specific about that and particularly, as I think about it you're going to start 2021 with capacity of 50 million cans a year, which in my mind is clearly not behind the curve, and yet by the end of the year you're presumably going to have massively more capacity. So I was wondering if you can be a little bit specific in terms of the sort of capacity, let's say, the run rate you hope to have at the end of 2021 and when the next big tranche of capacity is going to come on because 50, evidently isn't enough, which is why you'll be at the beginning of 2021?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I appreciate the follow-up, Adam. What I really meant is I no longer let capacity to be a constraint of what we would like to do in the marketplace. And so I want to remove capacity from being a constraint and that's specifically manufacturing capacity so that we have the ability to produce the product we desire to have in the marketplace, in the stores where we want it, and to be ahead of if you will, of that curve of wanting to have the product in more stores and not the ability to produce it. And so that's what I meant by being ahead of the curve.
Adam Spielman:
And so let's say in mid 2021, what sort of -- you talked about 100 million capacity, 200 million, what sort of capacity will be required to remove that?
Billy Gifford:
The question on what your desires are, Adam, I'm going to refrain from going too far. I think the 50 million with the environment we're in is about as far as we want to go. And just knowing that we're going to remove capacity constraints in 2021.
Adam Spielman:
Okay, thank you. Okay, can I turn now to the question about margin, so obviously and I just really want to understand the detail, you obviously had a huge margin increase in 2Q. Now, my understanding is there was some in America at this moment, there is some expenses you just couldn't make because of the situation with the pandemic. And so as we go forward, I guess, should we think of this as being a bit of a high watermark in the second half and the beginning of 2021, you'll be back to more regular markets and more regular activities, or should we think this is a new level and you're going to build from this new level?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, again Adam, I do appreciate the follow-up, but I'm not going to get into specifics about where this margin is and where we'll go. I think overall you can consider us to think of we like increase in margins through time. We really do that through, and as I mentioned earlier to Michael, we do that through cost reductions. And you're right, there are some expenses certainly in the second quarter related to COVID that be able to be spent. But there are also additional expenses and we highlighted those in our earnings release. From a standpoint of the other levers it's pricing and around pricing there's manufacturer list price and the cadence of that year-over-year can affect margins in any given quarter, but as well as the implementation of revenue growth management. And that's a piece, even though it shows up in pricing, is more like a reduction in expense through time, because what you're doing is you're being more precise, more efficient with the promotional resources you're putting in the marketplace, with the ability to achieve like or better results. And so with the implementation of that, you can continue to expect us to get better with that modeling. We're extremely pleased with where we're at, but we're never satisfied. And so the more data that goes to that model and the experience it gets, the sharper it becomes.
Adam Spielman:
Okay, that’s actually very helpful and I think meaningful answer. So can I ask my third question and this is about the new -- or the new details with the contracts you gave about IQOS and you talk about you have to get 50 basis point value share and I think this refers to specific geographic areas. And I was wondering that maybe, I'm just not familiar enough with the way you talk internally. But what does that mean, is that -- would that be a specific state or would it be a specific metro area or would it be let's say a quarter of metro Atlanta so how should we think about that, that just not very specific geographic area?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, we thought it was important to disclose that term, as I mentioned earlier. With this cross-confidentiality we have in place, I'm going to refrain from going much deeper and describing each of those items. Without mentioning whether we've met it or haven't met it, just to share a data point with you, Adam, in the Atlanta market we have a 0.6 share of the cigarette category in stores selling IQOS and so that's where we were at the end of the second quarter. But that's just a data point as a point of reference. And again, we'll be sure to disclose as we move forward our progress against meeting the financial objectives.
Adam Spielman:
But if you think about it from my point of view, I mean, just to be clear, it's not really possible to tell whether that phrase specific geographic area is a state, a metro area or something smaller, that’s a county?
Billy Gifford:
I agree with that and I understand the question you're asking. I'm just going to refrain from going deeper. I think that was good disclosure for investors.
Adam Spielman:
Okay, thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Adam.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Gaurav Jain with Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Hi, good morning. I have three questions, so the first question is on the Bill SB-793 in California. So there is a flavor ban that happens in California. Could you just talk about how it will impact the different categories that you have, cigarettes, cigars, smokeless, or nicotine pouches and what might be [multiple speakers]?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I think it is important. Look, we think that the FDA is the entity best situated to make decisions on flavors. All of the products that you mentioned will either go through the FDA or have been through the FDA from a scientific basis, and they'll make those decisions based on science and evidence. Specific to that Bill, I think it's important to remember in the cigarette category, menthol overall tends to under index in California. And of course, we tend to under index into menthol in the cigarette category. I think when you get to the other categories, you can think about in California in the traditional MST space, somewhere around equal share, nothing really to mention as far as over indexing or under indexing. And then in the alternative space, as I mentioned, all of those products will be in front of the FDA here shortly.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure, my second question is on the oral tobacco category. So thanks for sharing that slide where you mentioned that 37% of on! users are smokers. Of the other 63% is it possible to disaggregating to users coming from snus, e-cigarettes, and what are the new consumers coming into the product?
Billy Gifford:
It is possible. We wanted to share what we saw from exclusive smokers just because of the opportunity that presents. We'll consider whether we go into the other detail with the other categories in the future. But we haven’t thus far.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure, that's very helpful. And my last question is on the e-cigarette category, so we will have the first indications from the youth tobacco survey over the next three months of prior years at a guide that might be delayed because of COVID. But what do you think you will see with respect to youth access trends and do you think that will impact JUUL [ph] PMTA or will it be the 2021 Youth Tobacco Survey that will be more relevant?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I think it remains to be seen what we'll see. Certainly if you consider what's taking place in the external environment remember, JUUL voluntarily started pulling flavors well before the actual FDA panel came in place. And so we actually saw their share go down slightly. Now that there's more of an even playing field, if you will, across all manufacturers we've seen share of JUUL recapture some of that share. I think that as well as even the COVID-19 pandemic with underage use being out of school, remember, social access was where we saw the biggest access for underage use to have access to these types of products. And what I mean by that is if I'm 18 in high school and you're 17, there would be more chance for me to buy it for you. And so that's why we and JUUL also independent of us, supported the minimum age to purchase at 21 across the U.S. And so that was passed federally at the end of last year and has made steady progress in being passed at the state. The government affairs team is really engaged in those states that haven't passed it yet. So I think all of those factors should certainly have an impact on underage use. There's always more to be done and we believe no underage consumers should have access or use any type of nicotine.
Gaurav Jain:
That's very helpful. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett with Jefferies.
Owen Bennett:
Good morning, [indiscernible]
Billy Gifford:
Good morning Owen.
Owen Bennett:
Yeah, just the one for me. Coming back to the north of 25% IQOS share, and so obviously it doesn't seem not challenging, especially you talk about the excitement around possible success and you gave those Atlanta data points there. Could you perhaps be a bit more specific in terms of what you think is a realistic ambition for dollar share in those specific geographies over the next 18 months to two years? And if he can't answer that, I have been guessing you may not be able to, and your main competitor continues to say he could, tobacco won't be successful in the U.S. I was just curious to see kind of what makes you guys so confident that it will be a success? Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I appreciate the questions Owen and you're right on the first one, I'm going to refrain from going into detail where we were projected to be. I think why we think heated tobacco will be a success in the U.S. is really related to if you go back to the cigarette consumers. So somewhere roughly half to slightly over half of those consumers have shown an expressed desire to move to a potentially reduced harm products. And a lot of those consumers went over and tried the various forms of e-vapor and rejected it. And so we believe heated tobacco really fits if you allow me to put combustible or conventional cigarettes on one end of a scale and e-vapor on the other. With the IQOS experience, I would put it closer to cigarettes from a consumer experience base. They get satisfaction. The HeatSticks, as you're well aware is what goes in the mouth, even though you have a device so the mouth feel is very similar. You're inhaling the product. So we think because a large group of those conventional cigarette consumers tried e-vapor and rejected it, that is a great category for IQOS to satisfy what they are looking for.
Owen Bennett:
Well, thank you very much, appreciate it.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
We have a question from Robert Rampton with UBS.
Robert Rampton:
Good morning. Three questions for me, the first as you probably previously mentioned, that you secured state excise tax breaks if IQOS were to receive MRTP status, does that still hold for the reduced exposure specification you have received, and what's your outlook for further state tax breaks?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, you're exactly right. Some of those were secured. Now it differs by state. So some states have one rate for reduced risk and a different rate for reduced exposure. Some incorporate both at a similar rate. So it differs by state. As far as outlook, our government affairs team and I mentioned the strength of the government affairs team, they were able to secure most of those without that type of product having approval from the FDA in the marketplace. So now that you see that we have some I think as far as the conversation goes with the various state legislatures, it'll be a very fruitful conversation. And we believe excise taxes should not be a deterrent for consumers desire to move down the continuum of that risk. And so I think we'll see more conversations take place and I will put a prediction on the outcome.
Robert Rampton:
And just to follow up on that, you mentioned at one point I think it was four states, is that still the number or has any been added since?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I will actually ask IR because it does change period to period. I don't have handy off the top of my head how many states it is, either four or five. But I will make sure IR follows up with you.
Robert Rampton:
Great, thank you very much. And then my next question is looking at 2019 pricing increases in net revenue and retail price respect, it was elevated but in hindsight should we see that year as kind of a one-off elevated level and things should be more historic normal going forward?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I'll be careful not to talk about future pricing or price realization. I wouldn't read any anything into any one particular year of exactly how we're going to think about it going forward. I think when you step back from the specifics and think about pricing in general, we know pricing is an important part of our algorithm. We balance that with the, if you will, the overall strategy of maximizing profitability through time, cost reductions that we're able to achieve, as well as how we feel the consumers economic outlook is and what they're facing. And so we balance all of that on a year-to-year basis and throughout any given year. And that's how we make pricing decisions.
Robert Rampton:
Alright, very clear, thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
And Robert, it was five states, Sal was able to look that up, it was five states.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to management for closing comments.
Billy Gifford:
Well, thanks very much for joining us. Look, the tobacco category continues to evolve, but Altria’s quarterback of businesses, have a track record of delivering strong and consistent financial performance in challenging environments. We continue to reward our shareholders by returning a significant amount of cash in the form of dividends. We believe our non-combustible platform has the winning brand and is unmatched. And we're excited to continue to make progress in achieving our vision of responsibly transitioning adult smokers to a non-combustible future. Thank you again for joining us and stay healthy.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2020 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Altria's management and the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Nicole. Good morning and thank you for joining us. This morning Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO will discuss Altria's first quarter business results; Sal Mancuso, our CFO; and Murray Garnick, Executive Vice President and General Counsel will join Billy in our Q&A session. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation and quarterly metrics are all available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2019. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Share repurchases also depend on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. We're also conducting today's call from our respective remote location. As such there maybe brief delays or small technical issues during the call. We thank you in advance for your understanding. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Mac, and good morning everyone. To begin, I'd like to thank you for joining us this morning, and I hope that you and your families are safe and healthy. The past two months have been challenging and have changed the way we live and work. Yet, our exceptional organization has risen to the challenge and demonstrated compassion, grit and resilience. Over the past two months, I connected with our teams and their families, children and sometimes four-legged friends, who have popped up on the video frame. I'm more than impressed by the dedication and resourcefulness of our employees, who are balancing significant work responsibilities with many personal commitments. We'll get through this challenging time together and grow stronger as a team, because of it. I'd also like to thank Howard for his leadership and dedication to Altria for nearly 30 years and we wish him well in his retirement. It is truly an honor to lead this great company and I believe we have a very bright future ahead of us. The first quarter brought out the best in Altria's employees, as we navigated the dynamic tobacco environment and the unprecedented effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. I've been fortunate to work here for over 25 years. And in that time, I've learned that we rise together as a company to face our challenges. We've approached the challenges of COVID-19 by focusing on the health and welfare of our employees, maintaining business continuity and supporting our communities. In addition to implementing remote working and social distancing protocols, our teams are working tirelessly with critical businesses and trade partners to limit disruptions to our supply chains and distribution systems. As you know, last month we temporarily suspended operations at our Richmond manufacturing center, after two of our employees tested positive for COVID-19. We have since reopened the manufacturing center under enhanced safety protocols. And currently, all of our manufacturing facilities are producing products for our adult consumers. We're also focused on supporting the communities where we live and work. We committed an initial $1 million to support COVID-19 relief efforts for our employee and grower communities. Many of our valued non-profit partners have been hard hit by COVID-19 with disruptions to critical programs and funding streams. To help them through this time, we're providing additional flexibility with the use of grant and sponsorship dollars to support general operating needs. We're also accelerating some payments and relaxing reporting requirements considering their stretched capacity. Additionally, we've also donated supplies and we're running an employee giving campaign to support five non-profit organizations on the front lines of the pandemic. To-date, our employees have donated more than $100,000 to this campaign. Like many other companies we're tackling the challenges of COVID-19 with our key stakeholders in mind and of course that includes our investor base. Given the unprecedented circumstances some investors maybe less interested in our recent results and more focused on our outlook, but we believe it's important to discuss some of the first quarter dynamics to set the context for the balance of the year. To start, first quarter adjusted diluted EPS grew by 18.5% driven by excellent performance from our core tobacco businesses with double-digit adjusted OCI growth in both the smokeable and oral products segments. In February, we announced our new 10-year vision to responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to a noncombustible future. And we discussed the strategies that will drive our vision forward related to corporate responsibility, our product portfolio and science-based policy. Today we'll focus our remarks on our product portfolio strategies. Let's begin with our combustible product strategy which is to maximize profitability, while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of noncombustible products. The smokeable products segment delivered outstanding first quarter results growing its adjusted OCI by more than 20% and expanding its adjusted OCI margins to 55.3 percentage points. Higher pricing and higher volume more than offset higher resolution expenses to drive profit growth in the quarter. This segment also delivered strong quarterly net pricing of 9.2% due in part to its continued use of revenue growth management. Our reported domestic cigarette shipment volume increased by 6.1% in the first quarter due to several factors including increases in trade inventories, one extra shipping day and consumer pantry loading due to COVID-19. When adjusted for the traditional factors of trade inventories calendar differences and other factors our domestic cigarette volume decreased by 3.5%. However we believe that our preliminary estimates of consumer pantry loading should be an adjusting factor to reported volumes due to its high likelihood of near-term volume payback. When adjusted for these traditional factors and the estimated consumer pantry loading our domestic cigarette volume decreased by 5%. We estimate that U.S. cigarette volumes decline by 2% in the first quarter when adjusted for trade inventory movements, calendar differences and other factors. With the additional adjustment for consumer pantry loading due to COVID-19 we estimate that industry volumes decline by 3.5% in the quarter. To estimate the impact of consumer pantry loading, we analyze shipments to retail and retail sales data and compare them against recent and historical trends. During the first few weeks of March we observed stable retail foot traffic and elevated tobacco expenditures per transaction. However in late March, retail foot traffic decreased significantly as stay-in-home orders were enacted, but tobacco expenditures remained high. As we said before, it's difficult to identify trends based on short time periods. This is especially true in such a fluid environment. We'll continue to monitor marketplace dynamics and we'll update our estimates next quarter as more data becomes available. We maintain our full year 2020 adjusted industry decline rate estimate of 4% to 6% and we'll continue to monitor additional factors, including e-vapor regulatory developments and the impact of the Federal Tobacco 21 law. Marlboro's first quarter retail share of the total cigarette category was 42.8% down 5/10 versus the prior year, but it's share of premium cigarettes remain flat versus the prior year at 56.9%. Over the last several months, we've observed an increase in the number of aged 50 and older smokers in the cigarette category. We believe these smokers have previously switched to e-vapor products, but recently returned to cigarettes due to negative publicity and regulatory and legislative developments in the e-vapor category. Based on our adult smoker demographics, smokers over the age of 50 have a greater propensity to purchase discount cigarettes than younger adult smokers. In the first quarter gross shipment volumes to retail moderated for the premium and branded discount segments declining by 1.5% and 3.8% respectively. However, we observed a significant increase in deep discount volumes as its growth rate nearly doubled from the prior quarter to 14.4%. We believe this rapid rise in deep discount volumes is partially due to the influx of older adult smokers returning to the cigarette category and contributed to Marlboro's first quarter retail share performance. We're continuing to strategically prioritize investments in Marlboro and have focused our resources while maintaining its leadership position within the premium segment of the category. We believe investments behind our leading loyalty programs such as Marlboro Rewards; and product expansions like Marlboro Bold Ice with its innovative resell pack, best position the brand within the premium segment and maximize its long-term profit potential. Looking at the discount segment, we saw our retail share increase up 8/10 versus the prior year, primarily driven by the deep discount segment. We're continuing to monitor the dynamics within the discount segment, including interaction with premium brands and the impacts of adult smoker movement across tobacco categories. PM USA continues to profitably compete in the branded discount segment. In addition to its L&M brand, PM USA recently refreshed Chesterfield, to serve as a complementary discount offering, focused on adult smokers aged 40 and older. In cigars, Middleton's reported volume increased 13.1% in the first quarter, outpacing the machine-made large cigar category. We believe Middleton is the best-positioned cigar manufacturer to navigate the FDA framework. The company has already received pre-market authorization for nearly 90% of current volume and expects to submit the remainder of its substantial equivalence applications by the new deadline of September 9. Let's now turn to the second product portfolio strategy and our new vision. Over the next 10 years we will develop and expand our portfolio of FDA-authorized non-combustible products and actively convert adult smokers to them. Currently, we're focused on the three most popular non-combustible platforms, oral tobacco, e-vapor and heated tobacco. We believe oral tobacco will play a significant role, in adult tobacco consumer transition from cigarettes. And that our unmatched portfolio will play a leading role in that transition. Our product offerings within the Copenhagen, Skoal and own brands provide adult tobacco consumers with a wide range of satisfying flavours and strengths, within both the MST and oral nicotine, pouch categories. Our oral tobacco Products segment performed exceptionally well in the first quarter, growing its adjusted OCI by over 13%, and expanding its adjusted OCI margins to 73 percentage points. As a reminder, the oral tobacco segment includes our MST snus and oral nicotine pouch products. Higher pricing and higher volume more than offset investments in on! to drive OCI growth, for the quarter. We estimate that U.S. oral tobacco industry volumes increased 6% over the last six months, as the rapid growth in oral nicotine pouches more than offset volume declines in MST and snus. When adjusted for estimated retail and consumer pantry loading due to COVID-19, we estimate that U.S. oral tobacco industry volumes, increased by 5%, over the past six months. First quarter retail share for the oral tobacco segment was 50.4% and Copenhagen continues to be the market leader with a 32.4% retail share. Segment share declined by 2.8 share points, due to the continuing mix shift between oral nicotine pouches and traditional MST, we remain pleased with Copenhagen's increased profitability and the performance within the MST category. on! sold in over 28,000 stores at the end of the first quarter including the top five convenience store chains by volume. The newly redesigned on! cans are now available for purchase and we're enhancing its retail visibility through premium fixture space in most stores. We believe on! is a compelling proposition for both adult dippers and smokers. Although it's early days we're encouraged by the momentum that on! is building at retail and we're continuing to test several go-to-market approaches. For example here are the results of promotional programs that we recently ran, in two large convenience store chains in different states. In both chains on! sales volume accelerated during the promotional period. And more importantly maintained much of that momentum throughout the first quarter. To-date, we believe the pace at which adult tobacco consumers are adopting on! is related to the duration of Zyn's time in market. For example in Colorado, we expected a competitive environment as Zyn has been available since 2016. But we're quite pleased that on! has doubled its velocity within the chain in just a few short months. In North Carolina where Zyn has only been sold for 12 months, we observed faster adoption of on! and continued momentum after the promotional period. We're preparing a strong PMTA submission to the FDA for the on! portfolio and we expect to file our application in May. We're encouraged by the results of our research studies. And believe that our package of scientific evidence demonstrates that the marketing of on! is appropriate for the protection of public health. After finalizing the PMTA submission our regulatory and science teams will pursue plans for a modified risk application for on!. Turning to e-vapor, the category continues to remain dynamic in light of ongoing regulatory and legislative developments. In the first quarter, total e-vapor estimated volumes declined by 12%, sequentially and 10% versus the prior year. We believe the e-vapor volume decline is partially due to the ENDS guidance issued by the FDA in January, which bans all nontobacco or menthol flavored pod products. With our minority investment in JUUL, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission recently announced its decision to file an administrative complaint challenging the transaction. The FTC alleges that our minority investment is anticompetitive due to our decision to close the Nu Mark operating company in the fourth quarter of 2018. We intend to vigorously defend the investment. In the meantime, we're continuing to provide regulatory affairs services to JUUL, including support for their PMTA filing. In heated tobacco we remain excited about the opportunity to introduce IQOS to U.S. adult smokers. Unfortunately the COVID-19 outbreak has caused us to adjust our IQOS commercialization plans. We've had to temporarily close our Atlanta and Richmond stores and pause our interactive marketing efforts to limit person-to-person contact. We'll be guided by public health authorities as to when we'll reopen the stores and resume our interactive marketing approach. In the meantime we're continuing our digital marketing efforts to generate awareness and drive product education through the IQOS website. Also HeatSticks remain available for sale in more than 500 retail stores across Atlanta and Richmond and we believe we currently have sufficient on-hand inventories. Additionally we pushed back the Charlotte launch due to COVID-19 concerns. Our Charlotte expansion will include several enhancements from earlier launches, including a more disruptive retail look and a greater emphasis on flexible marketing units such as pop-ups and pods. We believe our enhanced retail fixtures will aid awareness as both the IQOS brand and its proposition of real tobacco no ash and less odor will be prominently displayed at the point of purchase. We're encouraged that Philip Morris International has recently submitted a supplemental PMTA for IQOS 3. This enhanced device has a more modern look and charges faster than the currently authorized 2.4 version. PMI's MRTP application for IQOS 2.4 remains pending with the FDA and we continue to be optimistic about its authorization. Let's now discuss the performance of our adjacent alcohol and cannabis assets. The first quarter was challenging for our alcohol assets as both Ste. Michelle and our equity investment in AB InBev underperformed versus the prior year. In wine, Ste. Michelle is experiencing headwinds due to evolving adult consumer preferences and increased uncertainty in the demand for its products. These dynamics have been further negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result Ste. Michelle recorded first quarter charges of $392 million consisting of a write-down of excess wine inventory and an estimated loss on non-cancelable future grape commitments. We treated these charges as special items, and they were excluded from underlying results. Ste. Michelle's first quarter adjusted OCI decreased more than 13% due to lower shipment volume, including lower on-premise sales due to COVID-19. In beer, first quarter adjusted equity earnings from ABI were $190 million down nearly 24%, representing Altria's share of ABI's fourth quarter 2019 results. As described in our press release these results now exclude our share of ABI's mark-to-market activity relating to certain financial instruments associated with its share-based compensation program. These amounts were previously included in our adjusted results but beginning this quarter we'll be treating them as special items and will be excluded from our adjusted earnings. We've recast our prior period results to reflect this change. Turning to cannabis. Cronos recently disclosed the results of its Audit Committee review of certain revenue transactions, which resulted in a financial restatement of the first three quarters of 2019. As a major shareholder, we expect Cronos to consistently maintain adequate internal controls and financial reporting processes. All these -- although, these restatements were immaterial to us we take these matters seriously and believe that Cronos is implementing the appropriate remedial changes. In the first quarter, we recorded an adjusted loss of $25 million related to our Cronos investment, which primarily represents our share of Cronos' fourth quarter 2019 results. We continue to believe that Cronos' asset light strategy is prudent given the evolving nature of the global cannabis market. Finally, let's discuss capital allocation and guidance. As the quarter progress we develop liquidity strategies to manage through the impacts of COVID-19. We're fortunate that our businesses are highly cash generative and convert income to cash at over 90%. However, we believe it was prudent to take additional actions to preserve financial flexibility in this environment. In the first quarter, we halted share repurchases and fully drew down our $3 billion revolving credit facility, as a precautionary measure. This week, the Board rescinded our existing share repurchase program, which had a $500 million balance to further strengthen our liquidity position. After funding today's dividend, we have approximately $2 billion of cash on hand. And for the coming quarters, we expect to maintain a higher cash balance than normal to manage through potential disruptions. Due to the uncertainties related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic recovery scenarios, we're withdrawing our 2020 full year adjusted diluted EPS guidance. Let's walk through the factors that led us to that decision. As you know, ABI has withdrawn its 2020 financial forecast due to the impacts of COVID-19. ABI is a significant contributor to our earnings and we believe, there would be misalignment to provide our financial forecast without greater clarity on ABI's expected performance. From a macroeconomic perspective, we anticipate a recessionary backdrop and increased financial pressure on adult tobacco consumers. We've observed a rise in unemployment rates that we expect to persist throughout the year. There's also a wide range of economist predictions for the peak level of unemployment and economic recovery. For our adult tobacco consumers, we expect an increase in down-trading within both the cigarette and MST categories. The degree of down-trading will depend on several factors including the depth and duration of higher unemployment and the severity of the COVID-19 impacts with potential offsetting factors of lower gas prices, increased unemployment benefits and government stimulus payments. For our tobacco businesses, we believe we have the right tools to help navigate through a difficult and uncertain time as we manage the business for long-term success. Due to the combination of these factors, we decided to withdraw our EPS guidance until the COVID-19 situation stabilizes. We're continuing to monitor the impact of the virus and we expect to reestablish guidance at the appropriate time. As a result of withdrawing guidance for 2020, we've also withdrawn our three-year compounded annual adjusted diluted growth objective. Please reference our earnings release and our Form 10-Q that we filed today for additional disclosures related to the business impact of COVID-19. Turning to dividends. We understand that our dividend is important to our investors and it remains a top priority for us. Our objective continues to be a dividend payout ratio target of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS. Since we have withdrawn our full year EPS guidance due to the impacts of COVID-19, we wanted to provide investors with a greater transparency on how we will approach the dividend this year. For 2020, we expect to recommend a quarterly dividend rate to our Board that reflects among other things our strong cash generation and the strength of our balance sheet. That concludes our remarks and we will be happy to take your questions. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question will come from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.
Michael Lavery:
Good morning, thank you and congrats Billy and Sal on your new roles.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Good morning Michael and thank you for that.
Michael Lavery:
Just on the category outlook, you've given some adjusted numbers on the slide and in your releases that show a steady improvement since 2Q 2019. I realize you've got the 4% to 6% outlook still in place for the year. Can you give a little bit of how you're thinking about that? Obviously that first quarter was a bit better at least on factoring in the adjustments that would normalize it. Is it fair to say that the macro uncertainty is some of the biggest wildcard? And can you tell us historically when the consumers faced some pressure what you tend to see more of? Is it a volume hit or down-trading? And to the extent, it's maybe a mix of both how do those compare to each other?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Great question Michael and thank you for the question. I think, when you look at historically and you can look back whether it's the 2001 recession or the 2008, 2009 recession, what you really saw was pressure on down-trading. And I think, when you look at 2008, 2009, you see we have the right tools to navigate that type of environment. It really is about having the financial flexibility and some more data on where -- how much pressure the consumer is going to be under and how long. And we wanted that flexibility to be able to respond when appropriate to what we're seeing in the marketplace.
Michael Lavery:
Okay. That's helpful. And then just one more on on!. Can you give a sense of -- you touched on the capacity expansion maybe having potential delays from any COVID-19 disruptions? Is that something that you're seeing already or just recognizing as a risk? And how do you think about that playing out over the course of the year?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. So related to on!, we're currently at a capacity call it around 25 million packs. You remember, we previously stated, we would be at 50 million packs by midyear and 75 million by the end of the year. We have seen a little bit of slowdown as we go through machine installation in the current COVID environment. But we're -- we've got the best engineering teams on it and we're moving as fast as we can. I mentioned earlier, we're in 28,000 stores. We're seeing good interaction with the consumer base both in -- with smokers and dippers. So we're extremely excited to be able to get that out and expand distribution.
Michael Lavery:
That's great. And just a quick follow-up on on!. You've mentioned that you've got the PMTA submissions, just ready to go. Is that the existing portfolio? And if so, would you consider additional flavors or nicotine strengths as part of your PMTA submissions as well?
Billy Gifford:
Murray, you want to take that one?
Murray Garnick:
Sure. Our PMTA submission that we're planning on filing in May covers our existing portfolio of products both strength and flavors. At this time, it's going to be limited to that. But as time moves on we'll consider other SKUs.
Michael Lavery:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot guys.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question will come from the line of Vivien Azer from Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
Hi, good morning. I'll echo the congratulations that Michael offered. Congrats on your new roles.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks very much.
Vivien Azer:
You bet. So Billy, can we just talk about the outlook from a macro perspective? So I think it seems prudent that you're anticipating down-trading given the drop of numbers that we're seeing including this morning. If we look back to the financial crisis, are you thinking about that as a potential analog? And if so, can you just remind us how price elasticity has evolved? Obviously there was a very disruptive FET, so maybe it's not perfectly comparable, but any color on how you're thinking about that? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. Thanks for the question. And you're right, it is a bit different this time, but we do take our learnings from the 2008, 2009. I think if you look back at the last -- what we -- everybody refers to as the Great Recession, you did see the FET increase that you mentioned as well as you saw gas prices at a different base in that economic downturn. The other thing is you see unemployment benefits have been enhanced as well as government stimulus pretty quick into the market this time. And even the segments of the employee base that have been impacted is slightly different from the last downturn. So when we look at it, we feel like we have the right tools in place and we've even enhanced those tools Vivien. As you remember, we've been talking about our advanced analytics. So we had the tools in place and now they're further supported by our advanced analytics. So it's really a matter of having some more data of how our consumers could be impacted and then applying those tools at the appropriate time.
Vivien Azer:
That's helpful. Just to follow-up on that though. Like -- so underpinning some of the scenarios that you guys are contemplating, are you considering that price elasticities might degrade in this backdrop?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thank you for following up. On price elasticity, as we told you before, that has held for decades. Sometimes you see slight disruptions if it's related to an FET in a given state, but we -- and then it recovers. And so we haven't seen anything -- and we peel back underneath that price elasticity and haven't seen anything from a trend break that would lead us to have anything different.
Vivien Azer:
Okay. That's helpful. And just one more for me. Can we talk about Marlboro's Special Blend? And I know you guys haven't historically disclosed how big of a mix piece of the business it is. But like any color on how you're thinking about using Special Blends to defend the overall Marlboro market share against a down-trading environment? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thank you. I won't speak to specifics but that is one of the tools in our tool bag to be able to pull out. You remember we used that to a large extent in the previous downturn. And what we saw was if the consumer was under pressure, they really wanted to smoke Marlboro. We wanted to give them a safe landing place. And we think it worked extremely well because through time, we've been able to close if you will the gap between Special Blends and Marlboro Mainline. And so that's certainly a tool in our tool bag that we have at our disposal.
Vivien Azer:
Okay. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog:
Thank you. Good morning, Billy.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog:
Congratulations from me too.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Bonnie Herzog:
You're welcome. I wanted see if we could get a sense from you how things are trending in April so far? I mean, you've walked through the different weeks in March for us, but I'd be curious to hear if you're certainly starting to see a lot of the -- I guess deloading or pantry depleting from the consumer. It's sort of what I'm hearing and seeing. We're seeing it in the Nielsen results. So any more color on that in April so far would be helpful.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. You're exactly right. The early data in April would indicate payback of some of that pantry loading. And I think while it's still early yet, the data would support our estimate of the consumer pantry loading that we put forward in the first quarter, but we'll continue to monitor it. Two things that we're watching is really how that will impact our shipments as both retailers and wholesalers make decisions of their inventory levels they want to carry through the remainder of the year. And I think also it's important to remember that we've seen some shopping behavior change with our consumer. Our consumers used to go and shop either everyday or every other day. And we've seen it and heard from our large retailers that they've seen the consumer shopping more on a weekly basis. And I think we'll have to see if that continues for a period of time, or whether that, as restrictions are lifted, goes back to more of a normal situation.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. That makes sense. And then, I wanted to ask about Marlboro, just maybe hoping for just a little bit more color as to why we're seeing some retail share loss and really trying to get a sense from you of how worried you might be about this. I know you, certainly, touched on the older vaper returning to the category not necessarily going to Marlboro. So, first on that, I'm curious do you think we're going to continue to see more of those older vapers returning to smoking? Or just wondering if most of that has already happened? And then is there anything else that you're seeing within the Marlboro franchise? And maybe what you're doing to kind of shore that up and then improve the brand equity, i.e., for instance, I think the loyalty program that you have, I think you've maybe increased that and moved that forward, given everything going on. So anything you can share with us would be helpful.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. I think, when you think about Marlboro and really -- we really believe it's related to that consumer movement across categories. And so, as we saw those older -- especially that 50 and older consumer move back from e-vapor into cigarettes, we know from demographics that that consumer has a higher propensity for discount brands. And so that's why we wanted to show -- you see Marlboro's rock steady is its share of premium. It is something that we'll continue to monitor and make sure there's nothing else there, but we believe that's what occurred -- the majority of that in the first quarter. From the standpoint of the tools, I'm not going to get into specific tools. I did mention, look, we do have Marlboro Bold Ice out in the marketplace. We believe that with the innovative resale pack, it's important to keep the brand relevant and fresh for consumers in the marketplace. And then you mentioned the loyalty program. And so, we're going to continue to invest in the brand behind the things that we see work.
Bonnie Herzog:
And one final question from, me if I may. A lot of companies right now in this environment are talking about their ability to kind of lower spending or pull back on some of the spend and I'm just trying to think about your business. You mentioned what's going on with IQOS and understood that a lot of that is being delayed given this environment. So, maybe any of the planned spending that you had for IQOS this year, are you redeploying it potentially into your smokeable business, or is that something that you're leaving as a cushion, possibly letting it flow to the bottom line? Just trying to get a sense of your spending levels this year in light of everything? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, sure. Yes, it's a great question Bonnie. I mean, we've certainly seen some with everybody, all of our salaried workforce absent those that need to be in the labs or need to be supporting manufacturing or working from home. And so, when you're working from home, naturally there is some favorability that would fall out and so we're seeing some of that. We feel like, as we entered the year, we're very excited about both the opportunity with IQOS and on!. And we felt like we had the right investment plan behind those. So, certainly, as we progress through the year we may see some favorability until we can get the restrictions, if you will, lifted and the economy start getting back to consumers being able to move around. But we feel good about the level of investment and are excited about the prospects related to those.
Sal Mancuso:
Good morning, Bonnie, this is Sal. I would just remind us that, we went through a major restructuring last year, where we eliminated some headcount, reduced costs. So we feel like we have a pretty efficient operation now and that last year's restructure was very helpful in that.
Bonnie Herzog:
It's a good point. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question will come from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.
Chris Growe:
Hi. Good morning. And I'll add my congratulations both Billy and Sal. Look forward to working with you.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Chris.
Chris Growe:
Yes. Let me ask first of all, if I could. As you look at the first quarter, I think what's more difficult for us to model is what happens in the second quarter. So it's sort of like, in terms of how much upside do you think you saw say the EPS in the first quarter? And I guess, is it a reasonable operating assumption at this point that you'd give that back in the second quarter? Is that purely determined on much inventory is actually in this system, be it the consumer or retailer? And then how much is given back in Q2? Is that the main determining factor for the second quarter?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. That will be it, Chris. You nailed it. And it really will be how both retail and wholesalers decide to manage that inventory in the current environment and how long this environment lasts. And, yes, I mentioned earlier, we did see some of the consumer payback in the early data in April. We'll just have to see if they go back to a more normal shopping behavior or if they stay on this, I call it, staggered or less frequent shopping occasions and reload some of their -- just some of the payback that we've seen. So, you're right, it's a matter of having some more data, because it's so early yet in this process, but having some more data of both the inventory levels as well as what the consumer's shopping behavior is going to be.
Chris Growe:
In a scenario where the consumer goes once a week, instead of once everyday, or every other day, do they consume less than that period in a normal -- as best you can tell?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. The data we have, we haven't seen where we've seen any breaking trends. But, again, it's so early yet, but we haven't seen anything that would indicate any change in behavior.
Chris Growe:
And then, just to understand, if I think about the growth you had in volume, if there's a roughly -- it looks like a sort of a 4-point contribution from inventory being up year-over-year. You got a couple of points and less shipping day. It suggests somewhere around five points or so of sort of consumer and retailer inventory hoarding. Would that be a reasonable proxy for the amount of sort of volume that has to come out in the second quarter theoretically, or over the rest of the year?
Billy Gifford:
I think, that's a fair estimate. It might be just a bit more than that. But again, it's going to depend on how quickly it comes out, how quickly the environment shifts back from the environment we're in to more of a -- whether you call it a new normal or normal environment for the -- both the retailers, wholesalers and the consumer.
Chris Growe:
Okay. I appreciate your time this morning. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi:
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Billy, Sal, congrats from me as well.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Nik.
Nik Modi:
You bet. A couple of questions. First, I mean I can appreciate the visibility is low right? It is for everyone. But is there anything that you see on the horizon that would compromise your ability to deliver within your existing targets? I'm just trying to think of are there costs that you see that we may not see right now? Is there -- I understand the demand dynamics between March and April. But if we just went into a regular recession, let's just assume COVID-19 never happened and we were in a recession, would you have pulled your targets, or lowered your targets?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. I'm not going to speak to the hypothetical Nik. I think we point to the two main reasons that we saw. One was related to ABI, because they represent such a large portion of our earnings, and then the -- it's just the uncertainty. And you've seen probably the range of scenarios, I've seen from economists about whether it's -- some are calling it a Z, some a W, some a U, some an L. And so, we would like a little bit more data on that. We feel like we – again, we have the right tools. It's just a matter of how much of and the appropriate timing of that depending on how our consumer feels in this economy.
Nik Modi:
Great. And then, just talking about those tools. I mean relative to the last downturn we had in 2008 and 2009, you have the Marlboro Rewards program and then you have your data intelligence tool in helping more local SKU assortment. Can you just talk about that, and how you plan to use those in an event we have a downturn or more severe downturn?
Billy Gifford:
Sure. I think it's important to remember that the tools that we have -- so every pack of Marlboro leaves their doors at the same price. And so we have price promotions where we can buy down the price of Marlboro, let's say, Michigan and not affected in Texas. We had especially marked packs with the data analysis that we have now that we can do down to the ZIP code level. And then with our extensive database, both of our consumers and competitive consumers, we can send couponing out. With Marlboro Rewards, the highest redeemed item is coupons and we actually appreciate that because that means there's a big sign of loyalty, because they're going to come back and buy Marlboro again. So, we have the tools and now we have the data to be able to precisely put that in place in the marketplace.
Nik Modi:
And the last question I had was obviously there's a lot of stuff going on with JUUL with the FTC's ruling. How do you guys think about your strategy there? What if they make you unwind it, and you don't win in court? How do you think about re-entering the traditional e-cigarette category, given that you had to get rid of MarkTen prior to the JUUL deal?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, Murray, do you want to start that from a legal standpoint? And I'll follow-up with the business side.
Murray Garnick:
Sure. Well, as we indicated our focus right now is in defending the transaction. The process -- the administrative process will take a number of years. So we have a hearing date set in March. Right now, it's been staid. So by the time, we get through the hearing and get to the commission and then the appeal, easily that's a process that could take two or three years. So what you're asking is -- it's pretty hypothetical.
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. I think from a business standpoint Nik, when you back up and not make it specific to JUUL, we believe the non-combustible space is going to play an important role going forward. And that's why you've seen us apply the portfolio strategy. So we have our traditional MST. We have on! now with the nicotine pouches. We have the exclusive right to IQOS in the U.S. in heat-not-burn. We do believe e-vapor will play an important role going forward. As it goes through, I'll call it, a two to three-year speed bump as the e-vapor manufacturers are navigating the FDA submissions and approvals and all of that process, and so we'll certainly be focused on it. But as Murray said, we feel good about our case and we'll rigorously defend it.
Nik Modi:
Great. I’ll pass it on. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Adam Spielman with Citi.
Adam Spielman:
Hi. Thank you very much and once again, congratulations from me too.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Adam.
Adam Spielman:
So, can I come back to the question about the removal of the guidance? Now I think we all get why you've removed guidance with relation to ABI. That's very clear. But in the past, even in 2008-2009, you managed to keep your guidance, despite the FET increase which is a big uncertainty. And in the past, you always used to argue that, fundamentally you could lift prices enough to offset volume declines even if mix went against you. And now, we're in a situation where you have actually even better tools, as you've said to very specifically target things efficiently with your data analytics your Marlboro Rewards and so forth. And so I'm wondering what's different now? And I'm just talking about the tobacco side of the business. About why the uncertainty in the economy now is not allowing you to sort of retain visibility and operating income whereas in every previous recession you have been able to do that.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. It's a good question Adam. And you're exactly right to point out tobacco is resilient, especially the cigarette category and that's why we maintain that 4% to 6% volume decline. I think what's different this time is just the nature of it. It came on so fast. And it was really led to businesses not being able to operate versus the normal of you have some unemployment and then you start having some people hired back. The difference here is just how long and then how deep. I mentioned earlier and I'm sure you've seen it Adam, the range of scenarios of how deep the unemployment is going to be and then how long and what the recovery period would look like. It's a bit more unpredictable this time from the external factor of the recession and how it's going to impact the consumer. And that's why I believe it's a bit different.
Adam Spielman:
And if I could ask a follow-up question to that. You talked about some of the tools you've got to address the problem so more of a Special Blend maybe promote that or make that a bigger focus very targeted data analytics targeted pricing. Do you think it will – if it's is one of the tools to simply increase prices less in 2020 than perhaps you were planning at the start of the year before this puffing appeared?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I'll be careful not to talk about future pricing too much. I think everything is on the table. With any pricing decision there are a number of factors that go into that. It's the health of the consumer. It's what these competitive pressures look like. What is the health of the brand? So we don't go into the year with a pricing plan and just stick to it. We evaluate that as we progress through the year. But we certainly feel very confident about the tools we have available and now supported by the advanced analytics.
Adam Spielman:
Okay. Thank you very much. That’s very helpful.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
Good morning. Congratulations Billy and Sal on the new roles.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Pamela.
Pamela Kaufman:
I was hoping that you could clarify your comments on the dividend. Should we take it as the dividend payout may exceed the 80% target this year if your reported EPS may be impacted by ABI but that's not necessarily as significant of a contributor to your cash flow generation?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. You're right. ABI after they reset their dividend in the last period represents a smaller portion of our free cash flow. I really think what we were trying to do is allow our investors to see now that we pulled full year guidance for the current year to share with them how we would approach or recommend to the Board it's ultimately a Board decision but recommend to the Board our dividend policy. And it really is look our two tobacco businesses convert income to cash at over 90% and that's extremely high. And then we have – we feel like very well positioned and strong balance sheet. And so those factors will weigh into those recommendations absent any full year guidance so that the investor base would know where we were headed with our dividends.
Pamela Kaufman:
And then given the uncertainty in ABI's outlook and their reduction in their dividend, I guess how are you thinking about your commitment to holding on to this asset beyond the lockup expiration next year? Have there been any changes in your – how you're thinking about maintaining the stake in both in ABI and Ste. Michelle?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Sal why don't you take that?
Sal Mancuso:
Sure. Good morning, Pamela. You are right, our lockup in the ABI shares expires in 2021. And look at that time we'll evaluate whether it's the best use of capital and make our determination.
Pamela Kaufman:
Okay. Thanks. And then just last are you seeing any shift in your channel mix due to people driving less maybe a shift away from convenience stores? Does this have any implications for your sales strategy and retailer relationships? And are there any differences in profitability by channel?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. So from a standpoint of shifting it's a bit too early to tell but we haven't seen anything that would indicate any significant shift between channels. It's very important to us that both C-stores and supermarkets have remained open under the various governor executive orders by state. And so we have a good plan in place and we'll continue with that plan. We'll certainly keep an eye on if we see anything shifting but we haven't seen anything to note.
Pamela Kaufman:
Okay. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Pamela.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Gaurav Jain from Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Good morning, Congratulations Billy and Sal.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks very much.
Gaurav Jain:
I have a few questions. So number one is on Tobacco 21. We have now had four months of that law being implemented. So we should have some initial read and some of that impact should have already been in the numbers. So what can you share on that?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. You're right that we – so remember about 50% of the population in the U.S. within jurisdictions at the middle of last year that we're already at 21 or older. Certainly in the current environment with the COVID impact it's a bit hard to tease out exactly what's taken place in the first quarter. As we mentioned consumers were potentially lagging. So it's something that we'll watch but you're right to say that some of it was in our numbers last year and we expect to see the remainder of that come out this year.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. My next question is on the U.S. oral tobacco market, which the growth has accelerated per your slides and it's now plus 5%. So what has accounted for it? Is it new consumers, or is it mainly existing consumers and cigarettes and e-cigarettes switching into oral tobacco?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think, it's a mixture of consumers shifting. You can see we were excited about on! interacting with both cigarettes -- and the consumer group you left out were MST -- traditional MST consumers. And there is the potential that e-vapor consumers as they want to stay in that alternative space. If they've loved cigarettes and they're in the alternative space and previously it was e-vapor that they could take it up. And so that's why we're so excited about getting that into the distribution and expanding that. So that's in the consideration set of our consumers as they're making these different choices.
Gaurav Jain:
Appreciate it. Thank you. My next question is on the supply chain issues. So you have one factory, which was shut for two weeks. So -- and you know COVID is still with us and there could be -- anything can happen here. So how do you approach that? Like do you build excess inventory? Do you partner with some manufacturers so that there is some buffer capacity? Can you just share your thoughts on that?
Billy Gifford:
Sure. I had the honor of being able to run that organization for a period of time in my career. And I will tell you that that manufacturing team is extremely strong. They had business continuity and plans in place for years. And so I always got to see them run those business continuity plans kind of in a test environment. Now I'm getting to see them execute it for real. We were able to build inventory and take the voluntary position to shut down for two weeks once we had a couple of cases pop-up. And that was really to prevent community spread amongst the employee base and we think that was the right decision. We've put in very enhanced protocols so really extremely communicating to the employee base about social distancing. For instance, we actually have the employees go through a temperature check before they report in. We have some shift separation that takes place. So previously if I were running the machine I would -- the next operator would show up a little bit before so the machine could run full speed. Now we actually have separations so I would actually bring that machine down in disciplined fashion to idle. I would leave the building and the next operator would come in and be able to bring that back up. We think what that does for us is -- if you -- I think you've been in the MC or Manufacturing Center. If you really think about it it's smaller factories within a very large complex. And so now that we've restricted some of the movement around the manufacturing center, if we should have the unfortunate incidence of another case popping up we would be quarantining one shift of employees related to that one bay. We would do extensive cleaning and then we would be able to run the next two shifts in that bay. So with the enhanced protocols we put in place we believe we've greatly mitigated the need to have to shut down the entire facility as we move forward into the future. I would say as we start to bring it back up again with the strength of our manufacturing team we've already started rebuilding inventories.
Gaurav Jain:
Thank you for that detailed answer. And sir if I can sneak in one last question. So we had this news yesterday that JUUL is restructuring its operations and you have a number of lawsuits against it. So if JUUL were to need more capital to settle some of these lawsuits would you be contributing more to maintain your equity stake?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think that's something that we'll have to decide if we're faced with that. Look we'll go through our normal M&A analysis and make the decision at the appropriate time. And that's the way we'll approach anything like in that realm of possibility.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. Thanks a lot for your time.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Robert Rampton with UBS.
Robert Rampton:
Hello. Congratulations to you both from me as well.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Robert Rampton:
I've got three questions on my end. The first is that you flagged that macro factors were a 20 bps tailwind to volumes in 2019. Could you help us understand what the range of outcomes -- scenarios you're thinking about for that one in 2020 is? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. We – yes, I'm not going to share that at this point in time just because the ranges are so wide. As I saw and I'm sure you're seeing there's a number of predictions around how this is going to impact the economy and how long it's going to last. We'll certainly try to provide transparency as we move into the future. But it's a bit early. It's only a couple of weeks so far that we've really seen the unemployment numbers jump. And so it's something that we're watching. We sure are running a number of scenarios so that we'll plan about how we're going to approach those range of scenarios. But I think it's too early to really put a range around it.
Robert Rampton:
Fair enough. I guess, my second question is then on -- in terms of, you commented on volume trends over April. And how is down-trading looking over April? I'm trying to understand in the context of the 3% to 4% retail price increases how big the risk is to kind of your net revenue per stick.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think again, it's so early in the data. I did want to share that we saw some of the payback happening. I think it's too early really to call a trend on or any pressure from a down-trading standpoint. But we wanted to highlight for you that we believe that's going to happen. And we think we have the right tools in place. It's just a matter of when we deploy them or if we need to deploy them depending on as we see the pressure on the consumer and where it's necessary.
Robert Rampton:
Okay. That makes sense. And then sorry, my final question is just on IQOS. Any updated thoughts on how receptive you think the U.S. consumer is to the proposition?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. It's a great question. Look we were extremely excited with what we were seeing in Atlanta and Richmond. Unfortunately, it was a bit affected by those COVID pandemic, but we're excited to get right back on it. We did delay Charlotte as I said earlier, but we're excited with what we were seeing and we're excited to be able to get back to it. We'll really be guided by health authorities as they release the restrictions or remove some of the restrictions to be able to get back to that person-to-person interaction. We think we've learned some things. I've mentioned earlier, we really wanted to bring forward the social benefits of no ash and less odor. That was one of the things we learned in Atlanta is people who were very aware of the brand, but were less aware of the social benefits. And so our team moved so quickly in analyzing that, and so we're going to bring that to light as we expand it once we get the permission to do that from government authorities.
Robert Rampton:
Super. Thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Priya Ohri Gupta with Barclays.
Priya Ohri Gupta:
Good morning. Congratulations Billy and Sal. We look forward to working with you on your new roles.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks very much.
Priya Ohri Gupta:
Thank you for taking the question. Just a quick one. So your revolver draw has helped you guys get through sort of your peak cash in use period. How should we think about the need to potentially replace those borrowings and then possibly shore up liquidity going forward just given some of the uncertainty that you've talked about in the current environment? Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Take that one.
Sal Mancuso:
Sure, Billy. Thanks for the question. You are correct. April is a large month for cash outlays and we drew down the full $3 billion revolver in March. Typically, we'd be in the capital markets for commercial paper. Obviously, this year was a different year. And I think the way you think about the revolver is, we will continue to monitor the market and evaluate our business needs, and we'll be happy to update you at the appropriate time in terms of when we pay the revolver off. As far as capital markets, I really won't get into specifics of when we access the capital markets. But again, we monitor the market. We monitor what our business needs are, and we will make the appropriate capital allocation decisions at that time.
Priya Ohri Gupta:
Just as a follow-up it sounds like the CP market for Tier 2 is opened up substantially more recently. Could you comment on sort of how that looks in terms of meeting some of your short-term needs and whether we should think about CP as a possible source to help replace some of those revolver borrowings, or would long-term debt be more attractive just as we think about the relative cost?
Sal Mancuso:
Yes. Thanks for the follow-up. Look I really don't want to get into specific capital markets decisions. But we will monitor the economy the markets and our business needs very closely and we will make the appropriate decision on how we allocate our capital decisions.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. The only thing I would add I think you're right the CP market for Tier 2 is starting to loosen up a little bit. It's been a very recent phenomenon. It was very choppy early on. And that's why we went ahead with the utmost cautionary measures to go ahead and draw the revolver. Look we're very comfortable with the CP market when it's there. But that's what the revolver was for is to back up when CP markets dry up, and that's what we were seeing at least in Tier 2 for quite a while through the pandemic. If it stays deep, I mean, we could certainly lay out some in the CP market if we see that it's going to remain that way for a period of time. But as Sal said, we'll make those decisions, we monitor the markets on a daily basis and we'll make those decisions based on what we're seeing in the marketplace.
Priya Ohri Gupta:
That's very helpful. Thank you so much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
We would now like to open the conference to media questions. [Operator Instructions] We have a question from the line of Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
HI, Billy. I wanted to follow-up on JUUL given the fact that they've recorded a $1 billion loss for 2019 and are planning significant staff cuts. I wonder what your thoughts are on the outlook for the company?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think from a standpoint of -- just a reminder is because, we -- once we convert or make the decision to convert we would go onto the equity method but we choose the fair value option. So really what gets recorded to the P&L is any impairments going forward and dividends received. So it's a bit different than what we do for ABI and Cronos where we record their share of -- our share of their income. So I think that's just important to remember. I think from the outlook of JUUL, look, we think they're making the right decisions. I think details around that are best asked of JUUL. But outside looking in we feel like the overhead had gotten a bit ahead of itself. And we -- it's unfortunate it's in the middle of this COVID crisis, but we certainly believe the reduction in overhead and that type of spending is a smart move to make.
Operator:
And with that we show no further audio questions at this time.
Billy Gifford:
All right. Thanks again for joining us. And please contact our Investor Relations team if you have any further questions. And on behalf of all of us at Altria, we hope that everyone remains safe and healthy. Thanks very much.
Operator:
This does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2019 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Altria’s management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead sir.
Mac Livingston:
Thanks, Brandy. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We’re here this morning with Howard Willard, Altria’s CEO; and Billy Gifford, our CFO to discuss Altria’s 2019 fourth quarter and full-year business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results. The release, presentation and quarterly metrics are all available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor App. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2018. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria’s board. Share repurchases also depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S., Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both the reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release and on our website at altria.com. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Howard.
Howard Willard:
Thanks, Mac, and good morning everyone. 2019 was a dynamic year for the tobacco category. For Altria, it was a year characterized by two distinct stories. The outstanding performance of Altria’s core tobacco businesses and significant progress advancing our noncombustible business platform, alongside disappointing performance from our JUUL investment. Across our businesses, our employees accomplished more with less and responsibly delivered outstanding results despite unexpected challenges with our investment in JUUL, which led to impairment charges and reported losses, we grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 5.8% and continue to reward our shareholders with growing cash dividends. In 2019, we paid $6 billion in dividends to shareholders and increased the dividend for the 54th time in 50 years. Our core tobacco businesses delivered strong financial performance, with each of the smokeable and smokeless product segments delivering high single-digit adjusted operating companies income growth, significantly expanding their adjusted operating companies income margins and maintaining strength on their leading premium brands. In fact, if you look at the performance of our smokeable and smokeless products segments on a combined basis over the past five years, 2019 was a high watermark for combined adjusted OCI and margin expansion. In addition, we exceeded our $575 million cost reduction target, made significant progress advancing and building our noncombustible business platform with the launch of IQOS in two lead markets and the completion of the on! transaction. And we successfully advocated for moving the legal age to purchase all tobacco products to 21 to address social access concerns among youth. Turning to JUUL. We are disappointed in the performance of our JUUL investment in 2019 and we recorded a second impairment of the JUUL investment, which Billy will discuss in more detail shortly. It’s a critical time for the e-vapor category, and we believe manufacturers must take responsible steps in the short-term to protect the long-term opportunity that the category presents for adult smokers looking for alternatives. We believe that the e-vapor category in its current form needs a reset and we believe the most important next steps to create a sustainable path forward are FDA’s review and ultimate decisions on PMTA filings and driving down youth usage of e-vapor. This morning, we announced that we’ve reached an agreement with JUUL to revise some of the terms governing our investment. We’ve agreed with JUUL to continue providing regulatory affairs services, including supporting JUUL’s efforts to prepare and submit its PMTA filings by May 2020. And we will discontinue all other services by the end of March 2020. Our regulatory affairs team is working collaboratively with JUUL on its PMTA effort and we’re committed to helping JUUL achieve this critical milestone. We also agreed that JUUL will create a new or independent board structure after we receive antitrust clearance from the FTC. We believe the new board structure will provide diverse perspectives and independent expertise to help JUUL’s management team successfully and responsibly navigate the very dynamic e-vapor market going forward. For Altria, we remain committed to preventing kids and non-tobacco users from using tobacco products. According to 2019 Monitoring the Future, underage use of cigarettes is at a historic low at 3.7%, down more than 85% from its 1997 peak. Although this is significant progress, we’re troubled by the alarming rise in youth e-vapor use. This is why in early 2019, we launched a national campaign to raise the minimum tobacco purchase age to 21 and worked persistently with state and federal lawmakers to support this legislation. In December, Congress enacted landmark federal legislation, moving the legal age to purchase all tobacco products to 21. We have much more work ahead of us in reversing the youth e-vapor trends and our efforts will not stop at Tobacco 21. We must continue to advance harm reduction. There are approximately 40 million adult smokers in the U.S. today, with more than half interested in alternative products. While JUUL forges its way in an ever-changing e-vapor category, we remain highly focused on our portfolio approach with alternative products like IQOS and on!. We want our organization, including our sales force, to most effectively and responsibly advance the noncombustible portfolio options we’re building and we’re moving forward on these opportunities responsibly and with increased resources. With IQOS, we’re encouraged by early interest from adult smokers and excitement from the trade. HeatSticks are now distributed across more than 500 retail stores in Atlanta and Richmond combined. Both launch markets include an innovative retail ecosystem that focuses on the consumer journey of awareness, engagement, trial, purchase and conversion. We now have more than 100 trained IQOS professionals to provide guided trials. We continue to advance our commercialization plans and are gathering insights from our lead markets to inform them going forward. Philip Morris International’s MRTP application for IQOS remains pending with the FDA and we remain optimistic about its authorization. Additionally, PMI plans to submit a supplemental PMTA in the coming months for IQOS 3. The device offers a more premium and modern design and a rapid charge battery compared to the currently authorized 2.4 device. We plan to capitalize on our first-mover advantage, while considering the opportunities presented by an FDA-authorized reduced risk claim for IQOS 2.4 and the launch of a more modern device. In oral nicotine pouches, we’re advancing our plans quickly in this rapidly growing category, focusing on regulatory, manufacturing and distribution efforts. First, our Helix subsidiary expects to submit its PMTAs for on! by the May 2020 deadline. Second, our best engineers are building manufacturing capability for on! at our Richmond manufacturing center and we expect to begin manufacturing there this quarter. We are targeting annualized manufacturing capacity of 50 million cans by midyear and 75 million cans by the end of 2020. on! can be purchased on its premium branded website through a robust age verification platform and is now sold nationally in 15,000 stores, including Circle K, Sheetz and Murphy USA, representing three of the top five retail chain accounts for smokeless volume. The on! brand team will use our adult tobacco consumer day base to communicate responsibly with adult tobacco consumers about on! and its broad portfolio. In addition, the on! team plans to enhance the packaging to build brand equity, increase the visibility of the broad range of nicotine strengths and flavors to address the varying preferences of adult smokers and dippers. As e-vapor goes through a period of transition, we believe it’s an opportune time to further invest in our plans in heated tobacco and oral nicotine. The strength of our core tobacco businesses provides us with the financial flexibility to make these investments as we capitalize on our first-mover advantage in heated tobacco and on!’s compelling proposition and broad portfolio. We enter 2020 with continued focus on harm reduction and preparing for a future where adult tobacco consumers overwhelmingly prefer noncombustible products over combustible products. We look forward to sharing more at CAGNY. Let’s turn to our financial outlook. For our JUUL investment, we now expect HSR resolution in the first half of 2020. Upon antitrust clearance, we expect to account for our equity investment in JUUL using the fair value option. Under this option, Altria’s income statement will include any cash dividends received from the investment and quarterly changes in the fair value of the investment. Quarterly changes in the fair value of the investment will be treated as a special item and excluded from adjusted diluted EPS. We don’t currently expect to receive equity earnings contributions from JUUL over the next three years. Therefore, we’ve lowered our 2020 through 2022 compounded annual adjusted diluted EPS earnings growth objective to 4% to 7% from our previously announced objective of 5% to 8%. For our 2020 guidance, we expect to deliver full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.39 to $4.51. This range represents a growth rate of 4% to 7% from a 2019 adjusted diluted EPS base of $4.22. The 2020 guidance includes increased investments in our non-combustible platform and one extra shipping day in the first quarter. We’ll remind you that, in 2019, the benefits from our annualized cost reduction program were uneven and ramped up as the year progressed. I’ll now turn it over to Billy to provide more detail on our 2019 performance.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Howard, and good morning, everyone. We expect the tobacco category to remain dynamic with continued evolution in adult tobacco consumer preferences and tobacco regulation. We believe we’re well positioned to deliver steady performance in this environment and that our enhanced business platform allows us to continue to deliver strong financial results and generate significant cash return to shareholders, commercialize non-combustible tobacco products to provide satisfying alternatives for adult tobacco consumers, and participate in the adjacent and emerging cannabis category through our investment in Cronos. As Howard mentioned earlier, in 2019, our core tobacco segments were resilient and delivered excellent performance against their stated objectives. In the smokeable products segment, the segment grew adjusted OCI by 8.6% and expanded its adjusted OCI margins by 3.9 percentage points to 54.5%. Higher pricing, significant cost savings and more efficient promotional spending more than offset lower cigarette volume to drive strong income growth for the year. The smokeable products segment’s price realization was up 8.4% for the year. More efficient promotional spending enabled through data analytics contributed to the segment’s strong net pricing. Marlboro retail share remained stable at 43.1%, down a tenth versus prior year. Product expansions with innovative resale packaging and other brand equity investments continue to support Marlboro’s performance. The Marlboro Rewards equity program launched nationally a year ago continues to exceed our expectations, with over 2.6 million adult smokers enrolled and 200 million pack codes entered since its launch. Marlboro coupons are driving repeat purchases and remain the number one redeemed item. At the industry level, we estimate that U.S. cigarette volumes declined by 4.5% in the fourth quarter and by 5.5% for the full-year when adjusted for trade inventory movements and other factors. We continue to believe that accelerated movement of adult smokers to other categories, primarily e-vapor, and increased exclusive e-vapor category usage drove the incremental year-over-year decline. For cigarette price elasticity, we’ll remind investors that this component of the decline rate is based on retail price changes that include excise taxes, manufacturer pricing and trade margin changes. For the full-year 2019, cigarette industry prices at retail increased by approximately 4%. When this is multiplied by the elasticity coefficient of negative 0.3, the result is a volume impact of 1.2% for the year. Given the recent regulatory and legislative developments in e-vapor and the national move to 21 as the legal age to purchase all tobacco products, we expect cigarette industry volume trends to remain dynamic. Taking these factors into account, we project full-year 2020 adjusted industry cigarette volumes to decline 4% to 6%. However, due to our expectations for continued volatility across tobacco categories, we’re no longer providing a multi-year forecast for U.S. cigarette industry volume declines. In discount, we estimate that the total discount category share was up four-tenths for the full-year, but remained in line with historical share levels at 24.2%. While we have ceded some share in branded discount, PM USA continues to be pleased with L&M’s performance and its increased profitability over time. In cigars, JMC had a great year, with 3.1% volume growth exceeding the machine-made large cigar category. We’re pleased with the continued strength of Black & Mild and the profitable tipped cigar segment and the cigars business’ contribution to smokeable segment adjusted OCI growth. Our smokeless product segment performed well in 2019, delivering more than $1.6 billion in adjusted OCI and maintaining strength behind Copenhagen. The smokeless product segment’s adjusted OCI increased by 9.7% and adjusted OCI margins expanded by three percentage points to 71.7% as higher pricing, more efficient promotional spending and lower costs more than offset lower volume. Copenhagen continued to lead the category and grew its share by three-tenths for the year to 34.8%. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences, adjusted smokeless volumes declined by an estimated 3% in 2019. In the last six months, total smokeless industry volume decreased by an estimated 1%. We continue to believe that adult dipper interest and the oral nicotine pouch and e-vapor categories impacted smokeless volumes. Moving to e-vapor, the e-vapor category experienced rapid growth through the first nine months, growing volume approximately 35%. The category’s growth was driven almost entirely by JUUL. Late in the third quarter, news of vapor-related illnesses and deaths and the release of government survey data showing a significant rise in youth e-vapor use drove legislative and regulatory action. Several states moved to ban flavored or all e-vapor products. In the fourth quarter, the e-vapor category declined nearly 8% sequentially and growth slowed to 3% year-over-year. Also, in the fourth quarter, we estimate JUUL’s share of the market declined sequentially to 44% from 48%. In preparing our quarterly and year-end financials, we performed a valuation analysis of our investment in JUUL. As a result of this analysis, we’ve recorded an additional $4.1 billion impairment to our JUUL investment, primarily driven by the increased number of legal cases pending against JUUL and the expectation that the number of legal cases against JUUL will continue to increase. Since our last quarterly earnings announcement on October 31, 2019, the number of cases pending against JUUL has increased by more than 80%. For a brief review, in the third quarter, we adjusted expected cash flows from JUUL to reflect slower future e-vapor category growth due to likely regulatory action in the U.S. and various e-vapor bans in the U.S. and international. In the fourth quarter, as a result of the legal environment we just described, we increased the discount rate to reflect greater uncertainty around JUUL’s future cash flows. The latest impairment brings the current value of our investment to $4.2 billion. As we said earlier, we’re disappointed in the performance of the past year and hope JUUL can move forward more constructively. Turning to our strategic cannabis investment, Cronos. They are executing against a strategy of building differentiated brands and disruptive intellectual property. Last year, Cronos entered the rapidly growing U.S. CBD market through its acquisition of Redwood Holdings, which manufactures and distributes the Lord Jones luxury brand. Cronos has been preparing for Canada’s legalization of derivative products including vaporizers. Cronos also made significant progress with talent acquisition, hiring and filling critical business roles. We believe the U.S. cannabis market, if reasonably regulated and legalized at the federal level, presents a tremendous opportunity. And we’re pleased with Cronos’ progress in building its key capabilities and business platform. In alcohol, the results in our wine segment reflect ongoing challenges in Ste. Michelle’s business, which they continue to work to address. Adjusted OCI for the year was $73 million, down nearly 30%, driven primarily by higher cost and promotional investments. Ste. Michelle continues to invest in innovative packaging, digital marketing and brand optimization. For example, 14 Hands is now the number one selling premium canned wine in 7-11 stores. In beer, ABI delivered $875 million in adjusted equity earnings, representing an increase of 8.7% for the year. ABI also contributed nearly $400 million in cash dividends in 2019. Turning to capital allocation. We repurchased $500 million in shares in the fourth quarter. We have $500 million remaining under our previously announced $1 billion share buyback program and expect to complete the program by the end of this year. And last August, we increased our dividend for the 54th time in the 50 years. Our current annualized dividend rate of $3.36 per share represents a dividend yield of 6.8% as of January 27, 2020. That wraps up our results. Howard and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I’ll remind you that today’s earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We’ve also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. With that, I’ll open up the question-and-answer period. Brandy, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel. One moment please.
Chris Growe:
Hi, good morning.
Howard Willard:
Good morning.
Chris Growe:
I just wanted to ask a question, if I could, first, on – just looking at volume, particularly in the cigarette category. You had a number of – there seemed [ph] to be a number of puts and takes to volume in 2020 as we look ahead. I guess, I want to understand, a little stronger performance for the category in the fourth quarter. As we look ahead, you have tobacco 21, which could be a drag on volume. I guess, I’m curious about the cross category movement. It seems like we’re seeing a pretty marked deceleration in e-cigarettes, which has been a big drag there. So, maybe tobacco 21 and how you expect the e-cigarette category to perform in 2020. And then, just to understand how that’s going to help affect the volume for cigarettes in 2020?
Howard Willard:
I think when you look at cigarette volume declines, our range is 4% to 6%. With regard to tobacco 21, in the first half of last year, we estimated about 2% of cigarette industry volume with legal age to 20. And so, certainly, that’s going to be an impact this year going forward. But I would say that you already had a certain number of states that were already at a legal age to purchase of 21 before we made that measurement. And some of that got factored in as more than 50% of the U.S. volume was covered by 21 by mid-year. So, some of that decline is in the base of the decline rate. I think with regard to e-vapor, it’s hard to precisely predict what’s going to happen to that category. But if you just turn to the fourth quarter of this year, its year-over-year growth rate was only 3%. And I think that we really expect that we’re going to see a continued slowdown or even maybe a decline in the e-vapor category over the next couple of years. And I think that’s going to result in less pressure on the cigarette category. The other products that potentially could impact the cigarette category, though, of course, our IQOS and heat-not-burn and the tobacco-derived nicotine pouch business.
Chris Growe:
Okay, thank you for that. I had just one other follow-up question, which is in relation to the cost savings you achieved in 2019. You noted that you had about a $600 million annualized rate you exited the year. Just to be clear, that puts you around $150 million in the fourth quarter. And is there any way to discuss what you have left in 2020 coming through from the actions you undertook in 2019?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Chris. You’re right. We were ramping up as we went through the year 2019. The biggest annualization will come from the headcount reduction related dollars because remember that most of the headcount exited toward the end of the first quarter. So, that will be the biggest part of the annualization.
Chris Growe:
And are you able to say, Billy, how much is left in terms of savings you expect in 2020?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I probably won’t go into that level of detail, but I think the $600 million is a good number from an annualized run rate.
Chris Growe:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
Good morning.
Howard Willard:
Morning.
Vivien Azer:
So, I wanted to just touch base on some of your market share aspirations, given how dynamic the cigarette industry volume backdrop has proven to be. So. Howard, as you think about possibly a worse outlook relative to what you guys used to think, it’s not a three to four anymore, does that change how you think about holding or modestly growing your cigarette market share? Thanks.
Howard Willard:
I have to say that we were pleased with our performance last year. We had stability on Marlboro. We had a modest step down in our share on L&M, but it’s at a much higher level of profitability and we had strong profit growth from the cigarette category. So, we believe that the performance we had last year was quite strong and quite acceptable.
Vivien Azer:
Okay, that’s helpful. Thank you. And just to follow-up on JUUL, can you comment at all about what your expectations are now for revenue mix over the next few years for JUUL, domestic versus internationally?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Vivien. From a standpoint of – you know that JUUL has announced – we know there’s a reset that’s taken place in the U.S. and they’ve had some announcements of some resets that they are in the process of making internationally. We certainly incorporated both into the valuation analysis. But I’m going to be hesitant to go into the level of detail of the split up between both international and the U.S. until we see the continuation of their plans roll out.
Vivien Azer:
Understood. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi:
Yes. Good morning, everyone. Howard, can you maybe talk about this ceasing of helping JUUL with other areas outside of regulatory. Is that just in anticipation of FTC review? I mean, can you just provide any context around that? I am assuming that means no coupons and some of the shelf spacing that you’ve previously discussed. And then, just thinking about 2020, your overall thoughts and just areas that we should be watching out for potential excise tax increases? I haven’t reviewed some of the data out there, but maybe you could just give us any areas that you guys are looking at in terms of big tax hikes. Thanks.
Howard Willard:
Sure. With regard to the change in the services that we’re providing to JUUL, it’s not related to the FTC review. We’ve agreed to continue to provide them with regulatory affairs services, where the two teams are working together, I think quite effectively. And I think that’s one of their most important priorities, to file a complete and compelling application in May of 2020 this year. As you may recall last year, there were a number of services that we offered them. Some of them, they turned down and built their own infrastructure. And then in other places, they built their own infrastructure but on an ad hoc basis, utilized some of our services such as the sales force. What we found was that having both JUUL personnel and Altria personnel that were sometimes involved in executing for JUUL at retail, that it created confusion and that it wasn’t really an effective way to get the most out of the Altria sales organization. So, we ultimately agreed with JUUL that they’d continue to provide a number of the services exclusively and that we’d pull back. And I think that gives us the opportunity to really invest in our sales and distribution organization and having them focus on our two core tobacco segments as well as the expansion of IQOS and on!. And we know the kind of impact they can have when they are the sole supporter of our sales and distribution effort, and we’re pleased to have some of that capacity back for our other businesses.
Nik Modi:
Great. Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
Hi, good morning. So, Billy touched on pricing elasticity in his comments, which do not have appeared to have changed. Are you surprised that there have not been changes to pricing elasticity in the cigarette category, given the availability of lower-priced alternatives? And do you see any risk to your ability to continue to increase your realized pricing at a high single-digit rate?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Pamela. When we look at price elasticity and you’ll recall, we’ve had significant price increases. If you go back in history, whether it was related to MSA or excise taxes in a given state, and the price elasticity is held at that negative 0.3% coefficient. From a standpoint of alternative products, when we talk to consumers, pricing doesn’t really factor into top reasons for switching out. There are other reasons mentioned. So it is not surprising that, that hasn’t changed. I’m going to be a little bit reluctant to talk about the future pricing. I will note that pricing is an important part of our algorithm, but there are also puts and takes across the P&L, and we’ll assess that as we move forward.
Pamela Kaufman:
Okay, thanks. And I also wanted to ask about your outlook for JUUL’s PMTA submission. Is there any evidence of an improvement in JUUL’s youth usage trends based on recent surveys? And would you expect to see a meaningful improvement in JUUL’s performance in the next Youth Tobacco Survey?
Howard Willard:
Yes. I don’t know that there’s been government data released since about the second quarter of last year. But I do expect before the filing deadline of May, there is going to be that second quarter survey will be completed. And while it won’t be available publicly for a bit of time, it will certainly be available publicly before I would expect the FDA to make any decisions on the PMTAs that they accept as filed. I think that there is reason to be optimistic that there is going to be an improvement or a reduction in youth usage of e-vapor products because of I think, two very significant developments. The first one is that we now have a minimum age purchase of 21 nationwide. I think that will be an effect for a full three months before that survey starts to measure youth usage. And then secondly, the FDA has now provided nationwide guidance that’s in effect that is going to restrict, certainly for pod-based e-vapor products, the availability of flavors to tobacco and menthol. I think that should have a positive impact on driving down youth usage rates. And certainly, I would expect that the JUUL usage would decline as well. I think how fast it goes down, I think we’re going to have to wait and see.
Pamela Kaufman:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.
Priya Ohri-Gupta:
Okay. Thank you so much. Just a quick follow-up on that last question, around how you expect sort of disposable products to potentially mitigate some of the benefits from e-cigarette youth usage. And then secondly, you guys had a $1 billion bond that came due earlier this month. Just wanted to understand if we should expect you to refinance that or given sort of your healthy cash flows, expect you to just have paid that down. Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think you’re referencing the fact that, when the FDA implemented their guidance restricting the availability of flavored products, they were quite clear that for pod-based closed system products that they were going to enforce against any product in the market other than tobacco and menthol. And they were not as clear with regard to some of the other product formats. But I think that they were also quite specific that any product they found that was contributing to youth usage of e-vapor products, they were certainly going to enforce regardless of the product format. So, I think if you see youth usage, switch to other product formats other than pod-based products, I would expect the FDA to step in and enforce against those products as well. I’ll turn it over to Billy on your bond question.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, you’re exactly right. With the strong generation of the cash from our core businesses, we’d pay debt with available cash.
Priya Ohri-Gupta:
Okay. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.
Michael Lavery:
Good morning. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Good morning.
Michael Lavery:
On the JUUL equity income expectation now that that would not have any contribution over the next three years – three or four years, is that more related to the accounting treatment, recording cash dividends? Or does that reflect your expectations for what those earnings might look like?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Michael. When you look at the fair value option, you have two components that come through. You only record, if you will, equity income related to dividends. And then, you have, if you will, the change or adjustment to the fair value on a quarterly basis. And so since that equity line would include only dividends, we don’t have any expectations that we would receive dividends over the next three years.
Michael Lavery:
That’s a helpful clarification. Thanks. And on the FTC review, obviously, you’d said you thought it would be resolved in the first quarter and now, it’s pushed out to the first half. Can you just give some color there? Is that delay any cause for concern?
Howard Willard:
I don’t think it is a cause for concern. There is a significant amount of activity going on. And there were some scheduling delays that pushed it likely out of the first quarter, but I don’t think it’s driven anything more than that.
Michael Lavery:
Okay, that’s helpful. Just lastly, on the buybacks, you did the $500 million in the fourth quarter and now, are guiding to $500 million for the full year. Is there any reason why that pace would change or should we expect maybe a little bit of upside against that? How should we think about the outlook from here?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Yes, I think, Michael, as far as share repurchase, I’m not going to speak to the pace. We really look at the market and make those decisions. We’re in the current share repurchase program, and we’ll assess what the pace is and whether we make any changes to that in the future.
Michael Lavery:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam Spielman:
Thank you very much. I have a couple of questions. Can I start with the tobacco 21? In the states, where you’ve seen that imposed for quite a while, can you say if there’s been a difference in the volume run rate, I guess? That would be my first question on tobacco 21.
Howard Willard:
Thanks for the question, Adam. I think when you look at the individual states; they differ in the way that the impact of that has happened. And so it’s a bit early. I know you’re referring to a couple of states that went much earlier, but it’s tough to tease out. We’ll certainly be able to see that now with the nationwide – on a federal level, the 21. So, we’ll be able to provide better input to that as we move forward.
Adam Spielman:
Okay, thank you. So, also related to that, I guess the tobacco 21 has two impacts. Firstly, you might have fewer people almost immediately, because they just can’t buy it, but also you might think that the run rate of volume declines might get worse, because, I guess, you’re recruiting fewer smokers potentially in the future. And I was just wondering whether – how you think about that second point, whether you think tobacco – not only does it have an impact this year in 2020, but whether there also is the ongoing volume decline in the US.
Howard Willard:
Yes. I think as we think about the impact of tobacco 21, I don’t know that we divide it up the way you looked at it. Clearly, there are legal age to 20 tobacco users that were legal to purchase the product before that are no longer legal and we hope that they fall out of the category and end up obeying the law. I think secondly, we actually don’t advertise to non-tobacco users, but certainly, tobacco 21 could cause people to delay their consideration of entering the tobacco category. And while that might have a future impact on category volumes. We don’t do research on that.
Adam Spielman:
Okay, thank you very much. And then just if I can come back to the change of the agreements in JUUL. And obviously, you’re now going to provide them with less services than you had previously agreed to provide. And I was just wondering if JUUL has got anything in return for what looks like less value to them.
Howard Willard:
Well, I think as you looked at the agreement with JUUL, I think that ultimately, there were a number of changes to the agreement. I think we both felt like that was an agreement that provided value to both sides and that’s ultimately why we agreed to it.
Adam Spielman:
Fine. And just one final question. I noticed that the growth of the deep discount category, the sort of non-branded discount category, in terms of market share, was slightly higher in 2019 than it was in previous years, something about incrementally. Why do you think that was? And do you think we should – we will continue to see that and that increase switching to non-branded discount going forward?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Adam. I think related to that, we had been talking about it being churn for most of the year and I think that’s primarily what occurred in the year. You’re right, in 2019; it stepped slightly outside of just churn. I think as we see the aging of adult smokers, they tend to skew a bit more into the discount category, but I think there’s always present in the consumer base, a group of consumers that are looking for the – if you will, the cheaper or cheapest cigarette in the store. And as you’ve seen us and others take profitability on branded discount, you’re seeing that consumer move down to the – if you will, the AOM of the deep discount.
Adam Spielman:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Owen Bennett of Jefferies.
Owen Bennett:
Good morning, guys. Hope you’re all well. And just had a question around the non-compete obligation and if a scenario did happen, where you release from that. A few questions around that, is it – would it be right in assuming, therefore, that it would be MarkTen that you tried to get back on the market? And then also, are you in a good spot, where you could get a PMTA in with MarkTen pretty quickly? And then finally, would you need to get PMTA in first before you can get it on to the market? Or is MarkTen available, like, for instance, in some little part of the U.S. So, it’s not completely been removed off the shelf. So, you could ramp that up again pretty quickly.
Howard Willard:
Sure. I wouldn’t read too much into our renegotiation with JUUL that in the future potentially gives us more flexibility to compete and I don’t think that we have a well-defined plan, if we were to decide to execute that. Certainly, we had some e-vapor products; although I would point out that they were not performing at a level that we found to be particularly satisfying. And certainly, any product that would be placed on the market would need to go through PMTA authorization, assuming that it was put on the market after May of 2020.
Owen Bennett:
Okay. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Gaurav Jain of Barclays.
Howard Willard:
Good morning.
Operator:
Gaurav, your line is open. Okay. Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.
Steve Powers:
Yes, thanks. I guess going back a little bit to the – just the cigarette category and market share dynamics, I guess, just an update, if we could, about your satisfaction with the Marlboro brand in terms of its standing versus – and just overall brand equity. And clearly, we saw some share loss this year. We’ve discussed in the past. But is there anything that you see there that causes you any concern relative to what you discussed in the past that may need corrective action?
Howard Willard:
No. We are very pleased with the Marlboro brand. We think that PM USA team has done a fantastic job and really presented us with stability around the brand. They’ve had some excellent equity programs. I mentioned Marlboro Rewards earlier. I think that’s really driving repeat purchases with those consumers that want to be engaged with Marlboro. Yes. We saw a – I wouldn’t necessarily consider that a huge decline. I consider that stability. And if you look back and we provided it over the, call it, the last seven to eight quarters, you’ve seen very strong stability in the Marlboro brand itself.
Steve Powers:
Okay, great. And then I guess, secondly, the decision to remove your long-term cigarette volume outlook, does that simply reflect just a lack of visibility on your part or is the action more intended to maybe, focus us on other metrics that you kind of see as more important as you work towards managing to optimize profit growth across the portfolio? I’m just trying to understand, I guess, the motivation and impetus behind removing that number from your communication.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. I think that we feel like it’s – we’re probably in a better position to forecast the one-year trend than we are for the three-year trend. And I think that if we’re going to provide forecast, we’d like to do it with a reasonable level of confidence about falling within it. And we’ve just found that, based on our past experience and based on the number of things that are impacting cigarette volumes going forward that we thought we were better off not continuing to provide that.
Steve Powers:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Rampton of UBS.
Robert Rampton:
Hello, thank you. My first question is, so it looks like JUUL volumes were down 15% quarter-on-quarter. How much of that came from after JUULpods Mint Pods? I’m trying to think about the implications of the imminent cartridge ban for the rest of the market. Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Sure. I don’t – I really can’t break down how much of that volume decline for JUUL, came after their November announcement of withdrawing mint and how much came before. But I think you are right that the primary driver of that volume decline was the impact of them removing mint from the market. And while that impacted JUUL in the fourth quarter, I think there is likely to be a volume step-down for the other companies that didn’t proactively remove their flavored products and instead waited for FDA to force them to remove those products and that, of course, will be an impact in the first quarter.
Robert Rampton:
Okay, thank you. And then – so, my next question is assuming e-cigarette sales decline year-on-year for 2020 in total, I mean, looking at your estimate of two-point drag this year – for 2019, is the implication that that two-point drag disappears or am I interpreting that incorrectly?
Howard Willard:
Well, I think that it’s a little bit hard to measure precisely. We’ve given you our estimate of 4% to 6% volume decline for cigarettes. But I think that if you had an e-vapor category that declined, I think that the – any stepped up decline of cigarettes related to e-vapor would probably go away. The question would then be what are the potential impacts of either heat-not-burn or other movement to other categories. and then, of course, you’d have to factor in the impact of Tobacco 21.
Robert Rampton:
Okay, thank you. That’s very helpful. And then sorry, my final question on iQOS. Any color on how that’s going on the spectrum of Germany to Japan? Are you happy to give any more color on where you think the U.S. will fall? Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it’s still a bit early. And I know you’re expecting us to say that, but I think what we are looking at is getting the learnings. We had learnings in Atlanta and we’ve started some adjustments both in Atlanta and our subsequent launch in Richmond. We do have future plans and we’ll be sharing much more at CAGNY.
Robert Rampton:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now take questions from the media. Your first question comes from line of Jennifer Maloney of Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
Howard, my question is for you. You personally made the case for this big bet on JUUL. You made the case to shareholders, to your own board members. And I wonder what your feelings are now in this moment. Are you feeling frustrated that JUUL didn’t act sooner to address regulators’ concerns? Are you feeling regret for having invested in JUUL in the first place?
Howard Willard:
Well, I have to tell you, I’m highly disappointed in the financial performance of the JUUL investment. And I think that that is reflected in the most recent valuation, which is substantially below what we had expected. I think as you look at the drivers of that, there were a number of unexpected outcomes in the year. Probably, the one that I think was hardest to have forecast was the appearance of the serious lung injury. Essentially, you had the CDC recommending to all e-vapor consumers, both THC and nicotine consumers that they stop vaping and it took quite a bit of time to get clarification that the serious lung injury was primarily driven by THC black market products. So, I think it’s a disappointing performance. I would, however, note that JUUL was the market share leader and the volume growth leader in 2019. And I think while there is going to be a reset in the category that I think is an appropriate reset to drive down youth usage, I do think that they are well positioned following the reset to have more success in the future.
Jennifer Maloney:
Thanks. And one more, if I may. This new revised agreement gives you an out on the non-compete and it acknowledges that JUUL might be taken off the market by federal law. So, do you see that as a higher possibility now than you did before?
Howard Willard:
I don’t think that our change in the agreement to have additional optionality of certain things happen in the future were necessarily driven by a change in our view of what might happen to JUUL. But clearly, we decided that there is always a chance that something like that could happen and we thought having the option to elect under those circumstances to be able to go back into the market and compete, we thought that had value. But I have to tell you right now; our primary focus is on helping JUUL file a compelling and complete PMTA with the FDA by the May 20 deadline.
Jennifer Maloney:
Thanks very much.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Tiffany Kary of Bloomberg.
Tiffany Kary:
Hello, good morning.
Howard Willard:
good morning.
Tiffany Kary:
Howard, a question for you. How are you calculating the litigation risk from JUUL? And are there steps you can take to isolate yourself, given the way the deal was structured in terms of the indemnification agreement? Or agreement not indemnifying?
Howard Willard:
Sure. Why don’t I let Billy take that?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. So, if you look at the way we assessed it is, it was really a change in the discount rate for the fourth quarter impairment. We really looked at assessing – we did not assess the merits of the cases, whether they would be successful or not against JUUL. We really looked at assessing the risk of the uncertainty related to the litigation. You’ll recall, if you go back even in our tobacco history when we were facing AG suits and similar suits, the market itself put a higher level of discount on our share price compared to the S&P. Subsequent to that, that has gone from our share price, but that’s what was reflected in the fourth quarter impairment. As far as the structure of the agreement, I would remind you, we do assess the merits of the cases that we’re named in, and we think they are meritless and we will be filing for a motion to dismiss.
Tiffany Kary:
Thank you. And one more thing, if I may. PMI has just made another deal with a Korean company. You’re already moving on to iQOS 3. Would you ever sell in the U.S. other sorts of products that your sister company Philip Morris is selling overseas?
Howard Willard:
We’re always open-minded, but I won’t comment on that at this time.
Tiffany Kary:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Gaurav Jain of Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Hi, thank you. And apologies for the drop. I had a couple of questions. Number one was just on the cadence of volume through the year. So, Q4 2019 industry volumes were minus 4.5% when Q4 2018 comp was minus 5%. And Q1 2019 to Q2 2019 comps are very easy when industry volumes were down 7%. So, should we expect that volumes will be much better in the first half, and tobacco 21 impacts in the second half and that’s how volumes progress through the year?
Howard Willard:
Yes. I don’t know that it’s possible to predict each quarter’s cigarette volume decline with that level of precision. I think we provided you with kind of our perspective on what the puts and takes might be, but I would hesitate to forecast on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. My second question is on on! that you mentioned you will be filing a PMTA, but would you also be thinking of filing an MRTP? And could you also remind us where you are with the Copenhagen MRTP as well?
Howard Willard:
Sure. Right now, our first priority is to file the PMTA by the May deadline, but you are right to point out that, that is a product that I think has potential to receive an MRTP. And I think we’ll turn to that task after we get the May filing completed. And you are also right that it’s been about a year since the TPSAC hearing on Copenhagen. We thought that we had a good hearing with regard to Copenhagen as a potentially reduced risk product and we would expect to hear on Copenhagen anytime now.
Gaurav Jain:
Well, thanks a lot.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. I will now turn the floor back over to management for any closing comments.
Howard Willard:
Thank you. In summary, while the JUUL investment and e-vapor category remain challenging, our core tobacco businesses are strong and resilient, delivering significant cash and providing us with the flexibility to invest in our non-combustible business platform. We continue to believe that Altria’s enhanced business platform best positions us to succeed under various future category scenarios. Lastly, and most importantly, I want to thank our employees for their accomplishments and relentless dedication over the past year. Because of them, I have even greater confidence in our ability to succeed into the future. Thanks again, for joining us. And please contact our Investor Relations team if you have further questions.
Operator:
Thank you. That does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2019 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead sir.
Mac Livingston:
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Howard Willard, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, our CFO to discuss Altria's 2019 third quarter and first half business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results. We're also including slides to accompany our remarks. And all of this information is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor App. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2018. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. Share repurchases also depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S., Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both the reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Howard.
Howard Willard:
Thanks Mac and good morning everyone. We are in the midst of a remarkable transformation within the tobacco industry. Once predictable the industry has become increasingly dynamic and complex and while this evolution may pose short-term challenges we believe tobacco harm reduction is a significant opportunity for the industry and adult tobacco consumers. We believe that in the next decade, non-combustible products can surpass combustibles as the preferred choice among adult tobacco consumers. We intend to lead this historic transformation with our unmatched portfolio of non-combustible products and investments. Before moving to our strong third quarter performance I'd like to provide you with our perspective on Altria's strategy and the key non combustible platforms. Over the last two years we believe we built a business platform with the ability to deliver strong long-term results across a variety of future industry scenarios. We understood that no single product would likely satisfy all adult smokers looking for alternatives and that the regulatory environment for non-combustible products would continue to evolve. We assessed our portfolio and believe that we have addressed gaps with investments in e-vapor and oral nicotine pouches as well as an adjacent investment in cannabis. Today we believe we have the strongest portfolio across multiple tobacco platforms and are well positioned for future growth in a rapidly evolving U.S. tobacco industry. Turning to the key non-combustible platforms the e-vapor category faces a critical inflection point. We must address underage use while also preserving options for the more than 20 million adult smokers who are interested in less harmful tobacco products. We continue to believe that raising the legal minimum age to purchase all tobacco products to 21 at the Federal and state levels is the most effective action to reverse the rise in youth vaping. Today, more than 50% of the U.S. population is governed by Tobacco 21 Laws. And while there is strong momentum behind this change, more activity is required from the federal government and remaining states to enact Tobacco 21 Laws nationally. We also want swift action from the FDA and other public health authorities to take the appropriate actions regarding flavored e-vapor products and to identify the sources of the recent vaping injuries. We believe that these actions could reset the course for the e-vapor category and preserve its long-term potential for harm reduction. We are also excited about the opportunity that heated tobacco presents to adult smokers. Based on third-party research, approximately 40% of U.S. adult smokers have tried, but ultimately rejected e-vapor products. We believe heated tobacco could be an appealing alternative for these adult smokers. Unlike e-vapor products, these systems contain real tobacco and offer a sensorial experience closer to that of traditional cigarettes. The IQOS Heated Tobacco System is the first and only heated tobacco product that's received pre-market authorization from the FDA and it also has a pending MRTP application. We believe that heated tobacco systems and IQOS specifically are well positioned to meet the preferences of adult smokers who are looking for, but had not found a satisfying alternative to cigarettes. Finally, we believe that oral tobacco can provide a compelling alternative for adult smokers. In moist smokeless tobacco, we filed a modified risk application with the FDA for Copenhagen snuff based on decades of available science. Additionally, we have invested in the rapidly growing oral nicotine pouch segment which offers adult tobacco consumers convenient nicotine satisfaction. Ultimately, the adult tobacco consumer and the regulatory framework will dictate which categories grow and at what pace. We believe our broad portfolio, investments and leading capabilities position us to win in multiple future scenarios. Turning to third quarter performance, Altria continued to deliver excellent results driven by our core tobacco businesses. We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share over 10% in the third quarter with both of our core tobacco segments delivering double-digit adjusted operating company's income growth. Expanding their adjusted operating companies income margins and maintaining momentum on their leading premium brands. The smokeable products segment delivered another remarkable quarter growing its third quarter adjusted operating companies income 12.6% and increasing its year-to-date adjusted operating companies income growth to 8.1%. Higher pricing and the impact of our cost reduction efforts more than offset lower cigarette volumes to drive income growth in both the third quarter and in the first nine months. PM USA is pleased with Marlboro's performance with eight consecutive quarters of stability, since the end of 2017. In discount, L&M is performing in line with expectations and we are pleased with its increased profitability over time. We believe discount category dynamics continue to primarily reflect a churn between branded discount and deep discount offerings. Overall discount category retail share was flat sequentially in the quarter at 24.2% and remains in line with historical share levels. We estimate that U.S. cigarette industry volumes declined by 5.5% in the third quarter and first nine months when adjusted for trade inventory movements, calendar differences and other factors. We continue to believe that increased adult smoker movement to e-vapor and high levels of exclusive e-vapor category usage were the primary drivers of the accelerated decline rate over the past year. Based on our 12-month moving data, we estimate there are now 12.6 million adult vapers 21-plus as of September 2019, up from 10.3 million at the end of 2018. Importantly that growth trend coincides with the trend toward more exclusive usage in the category. According to our adult consumer tracking data, we estimate that 6 million adults 21-plus vape and do not smoke as of September 2019, which is the highest number of exclusive users since our study began in 2014. Adult tobacco consumer movement across tobacco spaces remains highly dynamic and we will continue to monitor these trends. Over the past 12 months, U.S. cigarette industry volumes declined by an estimated 5.5% when adjusted for trade inventory movements, calendar differences, and other factors. We reaffirm our full-year 2019 U.S. cigarette industry adjusted volume decline estimates of 5% to 6%. We also maintain our 4% to 6% adjusted decline rate estimates through 2023 until more information is known about how adult tobacco consumers will respond to e-vapor category dynamics, including regulation and legislative developments. Turning to our smokeless product segment results, USSTC is successfully executing against its strategy of maximizing income while maintaining momentum on Copenhagen over time. The smokeless product segment continued its strong 2019 performance, growing its adjusted operating companies income by 10.2% in the third quarter and 9.7% for the first nine months of 2019. Copenhagen's category-leading retail share was 24.7% for the third quarter, up one-tenth sequentially and up two-tenth versus the year ago quarter. USSTC's smokeless volumes decreased an estimated 3% in the first nine months of the year when adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences. In the last six months smokeless industry volume decreased by an estimated 1.5%. We believe these declines reflect increasing adult tobacco consumer interests in both e-vapor products and oral nicotine pouches. In e-vapor, we participate in the category through our 35% economic investment in JUUL. We made the investment based on our belief that JUUL's product development strength, early signs of brand equity and potential to convert adult smokers set it apart from all other e-vapor products in the market. We also believe that the investment would enhance Altria's growing portfolio of noncombustible product offering. Given the dramatic shifts in the current e-vapor regulatory and marketplace environments, we have revised our transaction assumptions. In preparing our financials this quarter, we performed a valuation analysis on our JUUL investment, which considered multiple regulatory and marketplace scenarios. In aggregate, we're now projecting lower e-vapor category volumes in the U.S. versus our original estimates, which resulted in a third quarter non-cash impairment charge of $4.5 billion related to our JUUL investment. Also factoring into this determination where other changes to our original assumptions. For example, we expect it may take longer for JUUL to realize the strong margin performance that we previously communicated. We've also revised our estimates of JUUL's international business due to recent market development. Despite this impairment charge, we remain committed to JUUL's success. We are pleased with the recent decisions by JUUL to change leadership and we are optimistic about JUUL's focus and prioritization in key areas such as establishing industry-leading responsible practices and pursuing regulatory authorization of their products. Finally, regarding antitrust clearance, we've certified substantial compliance with the FTC's second request and we expect a resolution in the first quarter of next year. Turning to the heated tobacco, PM USA is executing a robust marketing strategy for IQOS in the Atlanta lead market. The first US IQOS store opened in September, and has since been supplemented by additional retail touch points, including a mobile pop up unit and IQOS Corners located within select stores. We've also recently opened a second IQOS boutique in the Mall of Georgia. Of course responsible marketing is the foundation for all our consumer interactions. IQOS is intended only for adult smokers and IQOS boutique entrants must be 21 or older. The performance of IQOS in Atlanta and other lead markets will be an important input to our future commercialization plan for the brand. The primary goals of the lead markets are to determine how best to communicate with adult smokers and how to scale our efforts. PMI's MRTP application for IQOS remains pending with the FDA and we are optimistic about the prospects of IQOS receiving this modified risk authorization. Additionally, we are encouraged that the FDA's draft PMTA rules, include a special pathway for technological changes to previously authorized products, which could support bringing newer versions of the IQOS device market. Finally, we are excited to announce that IQOS will be expanding to Richmond, Virginia beginning next month. With an IQOS store opening in the Carytown district. Altria has a sizable employee base enrichment and deep connections with the community that could accelerate early adoption of IQOS. We also anticipate distributing heat sticks to approximately 150 retail outlets within the area and deploying a similar marketing strategy as the Atlanta lead market. We are pleased to expand IQOS availability as an alternative to adult smokers and look forward to sharing more details in the future. In oral nicotine pouches, we are pleased to announce that the on! transaction closed during the third quarter. Now that the transaction is complete, we'd like to update you on our plans to pursue leadership in this new and fast growing category. We are focused on engaging adult tobacco consumers through both traditional retail and digital experiences. We launched a premium branded website for on! where age restricted adult tobacco consumers can explore the brand and will soon be able to purchase the product online. We expect to begin production of on! in our Richmond manufacturing center beginning first quarter next year. In 2020, we are targeting annualized capacity of 50 million cans by mid-year and 75 million cans by year-end with additional capacity available if necessary. In addition, our strong regulatory affairs team is preparing PMTAs for the on! portfolio for the May 2020 deadline. As a reminder, Altria owns 80% of the Helix Innovations joint venture that will commercialize on! globally. On! has a product portfolio consisting of 35 unique SKUs; seven flavor varieties across five nicotine strengths. We believe the breadth of nicotine strengths and flavors is a tremendous competitive advantage as both adult smokers and dippers can find satisfying options within the on! portfolio. As I mentioned at the beginning of the call, we continue to believe the evolution of the tobacco industry represents a significant opportunity for Altria. We marked major milestones in our transformation journey this year, including launching IQOS and completing the on! transaction. We believe that with current adult smoker trends and e-vapor disruption it's an opportune time to expand the availability of these options. We believe that incremental investment behind our noncombustible portfolio will best position Altria for long-term industry leadership. In light of these considerations, we are replacing our long-term adjusted diluted EPS growth aspiration of 7% to 9% with a compounded annual adjusted diluted EPS growth objective of 5% to 8% for the years 2020 through 2022. We believe this new growth objective provides us the flexibility to make investments in noncombustible offerings for the long term, generate sustainable income growth in our core tobacco businesses and return cash to shareholders through a strong dividend. We also expect to maintain our dividend payout ratio target of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS during this period. We will provide specific full-year 2020 adjusted diluted EPS guidance in January when we announce our fourth quarter 2019 results. Turning to 2019 earnings, we reaffirm our guidance for full-year adjusted diluted EPS to be in a range of $4.19 to $4.27, representing a growth rate of 5% to 7% from an adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.99 in 2018. Altria's 2019 success to date can be attributed to our resilient core tobacco businesses and our talented employees. Our employee base has embraced industry disruption with focus and dedication. Our business results show what I see every day that our people propel our success and I thank them for that. I'll now turn it over to Billy to provide more detail on our performance and other investments.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Howard, and good morning everyone. We'll begin with additional color on our smokeable products segment. Reported domestic cigarette volume decreased 6.6% in the third quarter, primarily due to the industry's rate of decline, retail share losses and trade inventory movements, partially offset by one extra shipping day. When adjusted for calendar differences, trade inventory movements, and other factors, smokeable products segment cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 7% for the third quarter and 7.5% for the first nine months. In the third quarter, the smokeable products segment expanded adjusted OCI margins by 4.9 percentage points to 55.3%, driven by higher pricing and lower controllable costs. In the smokeable products segment, excellent price realization reflects both pricing actions and greater efficiency and use of promotional resources, thanks to investments made in trade programs, data analytics and consumer data. Net price realization was 9.6% in the third quarter and 8.4% for the first nine months of 2019. Marlboro's performance continues to be supported by its leading brand equity bolstered by investments in product expansion, packaging innovation, digital loyalty and trade programs. Specifically, the Marlboro's rewards program continues to resonate well with adult smokers and drive visits to Marlboro.com. Enrollment continue to grow in the third quarter and the program now has 2.5 million participants and 150 million pack codes have been entered since the program launched in January. In cigars, volume grew 4.1% in the third quarter, outpacing the industry and Black & Mild continued its strength in the premium tip cigar segment. In the smokeless products segment, adjusted OCI margins expanded by 2.5 percentage points to 71.9% in the third quarter, primarily driven by higher pricing, lower promotional investments and lower controllable costs. USSTC's third quarter retail share was 53.9%, up 0.1% sequentially and down 0.4% versus the prior year. Turning to our alcohol assets, in wine, the premium segment continues to be highly competitive. Ste. Michelle delivered adjusted operating companies income of $16 million, down nearly 45% in the third quarter, primarily due to higher promotional investments and lower shipment volume. And in beer, adjusted earnings from our equity investment in ABI were $238 million in the third quarter, up more than 6% year-over-year, reflecting Altria's share of ABI's second quarter results. The cannabis space remains very active and Cronos is making progress and executing against its growth strategy. Cronos closed on its acquisition of Redwood Holdings during the third quarter, which provides Cronos with a leading U.S. hemp-based products platform. Redwood manufactures and sells hemp-derived CBD and few skincare and other consumer products under the Lord Jones luxury brand name. We believe the acquisition fits well into Cronos' strategy of building differentiated brands and disruptive intellectual property. We're very excited about the future prospects of the cannabis industry and the opportunity for Cronos to position itself for long-term leadership. Moving to our capital allocation, we continue to return a significant amount of cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. In August, we marked a 50th year of dividend increases. We are proud of our dividend growth history and remain focused on providing long-term value to shareholders through dividends. With the recent increase Altria's current annualized dividend rate is $3.36 per share, which represents an annual dividend yield of 7.3% as of October 28, 2019. We paid $1.5 billion in dividends in the third quarter, and we still expect to complete our previously announced $1 billion share repurchase program by the end of 2020. Altria's businesses generate significant cash flow. In fact, we've generally produced about $1 billion of cash annually in excess of our dividend payments, which provides flexibility to repurchase shares, finance debt maturities, and invest strategically in the business. Our cost reduction program remains on track and we still expect to realize approximately $575 million and annualized cost savings by the end of 2019. Our savings continue to build from the second quarter into the third. And as the year progresses this offering is more -- this is offsetting more of the incremental interest expense we incurred in connection with our investments in Cronos and JUUL. As a reminder, the program includes savings from workforce reductions, third-party spending reductions, and closure of our Nu Mark operations. With that we'll wrap up. And Howard and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available in Altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. With that, I'll open up the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will take questions from the investment community first. our first question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.
Chris Growe:
Hi, good morning.
Howard Willard:
Hi Chris.
Chris Growe:
Hi. I just wanted to lead out with a question in relation to your new medium-term, if I can call that EPS growth outlook, and I just wanted to better understand the basis for that change and you gave some color on the call. I guess, I would just ask is your -- I assume does your 4% to 6% volume growth outlook remains the same? And then embedded within that EPS growth outlook, how much of this is about -- obviously it's become a pretty fast-changing environment in this category, a lot of new products, obviously the IQOS and on! How much of it's about investment as opposed to some varying outlook in volume or that kind of thing for your business?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think first of all, our current mid-term cigarette volume decline estimate remains the same at 4% to 6%. Although certainly, as we indicated before, if the environment changes our view of that we would update you on that in the future. I think there are a variety of reasons why we replaced our 7% to 9% EPS growth with a 5% to 8% EPS growth through 2022. Two, that I think are worthy of calling out. First of all, I think it gives us flexibility to increase our investments over the next couple of years in expanding both IQOS and on! at a time that I think that adult tobacco consumers would be particularly interested in those products, and we could build a strong business that would contribute to EPS growth over the long term. The second thing is that while we don't yet have the final FDA guidance on e-vapor there is certainly the possibility that the e-vapor category could see its growth rate significantly slowed down or even see the category contract in relation to that FDA guidance. And the 5% to 8% EPS growth gives us the opportunity, if necessary, to push out some of the contributions from JUUL that we expected on our equity income line beyond next year.
Chris Growe:
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you for that. And then, just another question in relation to IQOS, obviously you're adding Richmond, should we expect you to continue to just methodically add new locations, or is there an idea that you have to establish some learnings in these markets and then think about expanding this to other markets. I'm just trying to get an idea of the phasing, I know we can't get exactly, but the phasing how to think about incremental locations for IQOS?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, it's a great question, Chris. The way we're thinking about IQOS as we certainly want to get the learnings of the U.S. consumer and their interaction, what really resonates with them as far as the learning the product and engaging with the product. We are excited about the launch that we had in Atlanta. We're excited about being able to expand it to Richmond. I think the pace will really matter from a standpoint of, we want to go as quick as we can. But we want to be disciplined about it and we want to garner those learning so that we're efficient when we have future expansions.
Chris Growe:
Okay, thanks so much for your time.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett with Jefferies.
Owen Bennett:
Good morning, guys.
Howard Willard:
Good morning.
Owen Bennett:
And yes, just a couple of questions please. First one, I was just wondering on your volume guidance industry wise for this year, it seems as we've seen a slowdown in industry vapor volumes recently, I was just wondering, why you've not upgraded the industry guidance? And then secondly, you mentioned that you've revised some of your international growth expectations around JUUL. I was just hoping you could give a few more specifics on what has changed in terms of your international outlook for JUUL exactly? Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Sure, I'll take the first question and then I'll ask Billy to comment on the second one. Our expectations for cigarette industry volume declines this year are between 5% and 6% and we're right at the midpoint of that nine months through the year. So we remain confident that the decline rate will fall within that range. I think as you pointed out the year-over-year growth rate of the e-vapor category in the third quarter slowed down a bit from the second quarter, but we don't think any impact that might have on the cigarette category is going to move us outside that range. Billy you wanted to comment on JUUL.
Billy Gifford:
Sure. When you think about the international markets, I think you've seen that several countries take action on e-vapor based on what they were seeing take place in the U.S. and so we make sure we -- we make sure we factored that into the scenarios, as we were looking at the revising the assumptions.
Owen Bennett:
Okay, thanks very much guys. I appreciate it.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Pam Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pam Kaufman:
Hi, good morning.
Howard Willard:
Good morning Pam.
Pam Kaufman:
Earlier this year you laid out key assumptions around JUUL's five-year outlook. Can you elaborate on how these assumptions have changed? I mean, previously, we believe that the return would exceed your 8% lock within five years. So how long do you think it will now take for JUUL to exceed this hurdle? And when do you think that JUUL can approach U.S. and international cigarette margins, and is this still a realistic target?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think, Pamela, it's too early to update those. I think we tried to revise the assumptions. Remember, we ran a range of scenarios because we're still waiting on the FDA to issue final guidance. You'll recall that JUUL took unilateral action in the marketplace, but all of these products are still available. So we're waiting to see what that final guidance is and see what -- how the consumer is going to be playing and what restrictions around product availability there will be, and then we can refresh those. So what we did is we ran a range of scenarios, so that we would make sure that we had accounted for the various assumptions and changes in those assumptions that could take place across a range of outcomes.
Howard Willard:
And Pam, the primary drivers of the change in value of our investment in JUUL, as we laid out in the release was that we reduced our expectations for overall e-vapor category volume growth over the next several years. And obviously that impacted JUUL's volume. And we also expect that that JUUL response to slowing volume in the e-vapor category and the likely impact of the FDA final guidance, it could push out a year or two their ability to achieve the kind of margins that we talked about here in the U.S.. I think probably the most important next set of information we're looking for is to see the FDA's final guidance and how consumers react to that.
Pam Kaufman:
And how do you feel about having to so materially reduce your estimate of such a large investment so quickly after being completed, and how will this experience impact your future approach to M&A versus internal investment?
Howard Willard:
Sure of course, we're not pleased to have to take an impairment charge on JUUL investment. And certainly while we had a range of scenarios when we made our investment in JUUL, we did not anticipate this dramatic a change in the e-vapor category. Certainly the lung injury I think was something we had not predicted, and in the pretty dramatic potential regulatory change that may occur next year, I think it was on the extreme end of what we might have expected. However, all that said, in the third quarter JUUL had a [48%] [ph] share of the e-vapor category in the U.S., the category, at least through the nine months to this year was growing quite dramatically with JUUL as the primary driver of that growth. And so we continue to believe, first of all, that bold action to address usage of e-vapor products is appropriate. And we encouraged bold action by FDA. But we also believe that JUUL is set up in the longer term to continue to be the winner in e-vapor. And because of that we continue to be supportive of JUUL's business and look forward to them working through the changes in the e-vapor category and being a contributor to our equity income line going forward.
Pam Kaufman:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Nik Modi with RBC.
Nik Modi:
Yes, thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Howard Willard:
Good morning Nik.
Nik Modi:
Two questions from -- good morning, Howard. Two questions. First, when you talk about the 2020 to 2022 earnings CAGR, can you help us understand the kind of the puts and takes in terms of how consistent that number will be like? Should we expect some really heavy investment period in the upfront as you kind of invest behind on! and IQOS national expansion. So any clarity around that. I'm not asking for 2020 guidance. I'm just trying to get a better sense of kind of how you think about it philosophically. And then the second question is really helping to understand the Marlboro franchise and my understanding is that the non-promoted portion of Marlboro is actually doing very well, helped by that rewards program. So I was just hoping you can give us some context around how the Marlboro trademark is performing.
Howard Willard:
Sure. Let me first answer the question around the expected consistency we would have for our annual EPS growth between 2020 and 2022. When we replaced our long-term objective with this three year objective, you'll notice we widened the range of EPS growth a bit and I think that was by design. When we established our 7% to 9% EPS growth objective it was at a time when volumes across the various tobacco categories in the U.S. were quite predictable. And there wasn't as much movement between categories and it was also at a time when our SABMiller investment didn't have near the volatility that we have with the ABI Investment. And so I think we really felt better having a 3% range for that mid-term EPS growth objective. And I would also say that I think many of you that have invested for a long time know that we had a 7% to 9% growth aspiration, but we tended to deliver about 8% each year. I think that we purposely, I think, want the flexibility to make higher or lower investments over each of the three years based on market conditions in the U.S. market. So you might see a little bit more movement within that range and we were really looking to create that level of flexibility. I'll turn it over to Billy for the Marlboro question.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Nick. We appreciate you recognizing the strength of the Marlboro brand. First, I would applaud both the Marlboro team and data analytics team. The Marlboro team put together a great Marlboro rewards program really based on analyzing the data we have on our consumer to drive higher interaction of our Marlboro consumer with at the brand itself. And what that has allowed is with the data that we're capturing in the data analytics to be much more efficient around the use of -- and targeted with the use of promotions in the marketplace.
Nik Modi:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Hi, good morning. Thank you. Yes, I had a couple of questions, one was on the recent discussions with Philip Morris and why they were called off. And in particular, the value of your core tobacco business was around eight times PE, which would suggest that the business is on decline. So, can you help us triangulate the multiple that you put on your own tobacco business and the growth outlook that you are now offering, which is still quite a healthy growth outlook? Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Thank you. I'll comment first on our breaking off negotiations for a merger with PMI. I think as we communicated at the time we thought that merger between PMI and Altria had the potential to generate significant revenue and cost synergies under the right terms. We did negotiate to try and come to terms and ultimately we were unsuccessful. And so as we communicated recently we're now very focused on our stand-alone business prospects and continue to have a partnership with PMI that we're very excited about to commercialize IQOS in the U.S. With regard to the multiple that we ascribe to our core tobacco business, certainly people on the call are aware that the multiple that the stock prices ascribe to our overall business has come down quite dramatically over the last three years, I think partially driven by concern about the regulatory pressures here in the U.S. We continue to believe that that our stock is undervalued. And when we look at -- when we look at the 5% to 8% mid-term EPS growth guidance, the ability to build a strong platform of noncombustible tobacco products to continue to generate income over the long term and our strong core combustible and smokeless tobacco business. We think that the stock price has significant upside. Thank you.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. And a follow-up on that. So you have valuable stakes, and particularly in ABI, which are probably not accurately reflected in the current stock price. So this discrepancy were to persist. Would you think of taking any actions to unlock the value?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, thank you for the question. I think you recall, as part of that transaction, we had a lock-up. That was a five year lock up that would expire in 2021. And then after that you can expect us to go through the same analysis we did with SAB, which is to look at that capital that's allocated toward the investment, make sure it's the right choice to keep it locked up in that investment and then make decisions, the appropriate decisions at the time. Our position on the ABI investment is that it was a great investment. It put two powerhouse breweries together. It's the first really global platform for beer in the world and we feel good about the investment, but you can expect us to go through the analysis when the lock-up expires.
Howard Willard:
One thing I might add here -- one thing I might add to that is back when we were debating what to do with the SABMiller stake, one of the concerns we had was the given its low tax basis any sale at that time would have resulted in quite a significant tax bill. And as you may recall with the federal tax reform here in the U.S., I think that while we still continue to have a relatively low basis on that asset, I think that we're facing a much lower tax rate, if we ever did decide to sell that in the future.
Gaurav Jain:
That's very helpful. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Vivien Azer with Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
Hi, good morning.
Howard Willard:
Hi, Vivien.
Vivien Azer:
So Howard, I was hoping that we could just revisit the cigarette volume outlook for the U.S. please. While I appreciate that year-to-date you're at the midpoint of your 2019 guidance, the year-to-date trends are skewing toward the more unfavorable end of your longer-term guidance. And when I look at slide 13, very helpful in your presentation. And look at the fact that the cross category movement impact has increased 5x in less than 12 months. Holding of 4% to 6% outlook suggests that not only does that not get worse, in theory, it gets a little bit better. Is that how you guys are thinking about it? Any color there would be very helpful? Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yes, thank you for the question, Vivien. I think when you look at that, that's certainly a 12-month moving and you'll recall that when you look at the e-vapor category going from second to third, it's virtually flat. And then we have the proposed regulation that's going to hit the marketplace. So at this point, we still feel very comfortable with the 4% to 6% on that mid-term volume. And so we will certainly monitor it and keep track of it as we move forward. But this period that we're showing you on slide 13 is the period that you saw the huge growth in the e-vapor category.
Howard Willard:
And Vivien, this is Howard. What I might add is that certainly we don't have the final FDA guidance and its impact on e-vapor, but I think that there is a reasonable possibility that that's going to cause a slowdown in the e-vapor category growth. And of course that will cause some of the adult cigarette smokers that otherwise might have gone to e-vapor to evaluate that decision probably differently. We'd like to have quite robust offerings on IQOS and on! available for them. But certainly that could have an impact on the historical decline rate for cigarettes. And then I would also point out that we've had quite rapid growth in the e-vapor category starting in the third and fourth quarter of last year and through the first three quarters of this year. But that growth rate, on a year-over-year basis, had been slowing down. And I think given that there are not new e-vapor products coming into the marketplace, at least until FDA authorizations take place. We would expect that there would be a natural slowing down in the growth of e-vapor here over the next year or two. And certainly that's what happened when IQOS was introduced in Japan, and so I think you also have to factor that into the calculation.
Vivien Azer:
Okay, that's helpful. Certainly the slowdown is apparent in the scanner data as well. May I -- second question is on IQOS. So have you guys established a target on when you might achieve profitability on that platform in the U.S. And the second question to that. In the near term it seems like the promotional spending is aggressive, perhaps appropriately. So, given the bundle is priced at $80, it would imply that the device itself is going for about $25. Are you guys funding that promotional investment independently? Thanks.
Speaker:
Sure. So we have not communicated a timeline for when IQOS would be profit positive. And we really feel like at this point, it's a bit premature. I think we are going to learn a lot about the most efficient way to scale IQOS in markets across the country. And I think based on that learning we'll have a much better understanding of what the cost structure would be going forward. And I would say that you are right that our level of spending in the Atlanta market is probably higher than it will be on a market basis going forward, but Atlanta is really designed for us to try a broad spectrum of tools to create awareness trial and purchase of IQOS. And then based on that learnings, we will design a more efficient less costly plan to expand it around the country. And I think that that means that it may take us few more months to start expanding it, but we think that the benefit will get an efficiency and ability to scale winning platform is well worth it.
Vivien Azer:
Terrific. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Jaffray.
Michael Lavery:
Good morning.
Howard Willard:
Hi Michael.
Michael Lavery:
Can you just talk about your approach to how you think about the IQOS rollout? And obviously, now you've already announced a second city. But as you look ahead, how much did your learnings from Atlanta and now Richmond determine how you might adjust or update the tactics and the go-to-market approach, or does it all subscribe your thinking on the magnitude and timing of the push that you might like?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I think the primary driver of our ultimate national rollout strategy and the tactics we use to cost effectively drive consumer trial awareness and purchase. The primary driver of that is going to be the results in Atlanta and now Richmond. We had enough time to revisit revised and improve the Atlanta promotional plan several times. So we feel quite good about it. But we have no doubt that we're going to learn things in Atlanta that allow us to be much more efficient as we roll out nationally. But I would say also that given the likelihood that there is going to be some disruption in the e-vapor market we also wanted to step up the speed with which we would expand IQOS. So while we are going to learn how to best expand it nationally, we have also set aside the resources now with our 5% to 8% EPS guidance to ramp that up much more quickly on a national basis once we do learn from Atlanta.
Michael Lavery:
That's helpful. And on the outlook for next year just at a very high level in broad strokes, is there some uncertainty around the speed of traction, just given that it's so earlier on the IQOS launch such that you might have several scenarios potentially in mind for how next year unfolds and could the guidance for next year possibly even be wider than your growth objective?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I won't get ahead of ourselves on guidance for next year. Certainly, as I said, I think that our learnings in the Atlanta test market are going to inform the plan we have for expanding IQOS and we'll have similar learnings on which will also inform it. Although I have to tell you that that we think that the new mid-term EPS growth guidance range gives us a lot of flexibility for a variety of scenarios. But ultimately I'll leave that for January. I do want to follow-up. I think I failed to answer one part of your question earlier, Michael, which is you are right that in Atlanta in order to encourage adult cigarette smokers to purchase the device, we are offering quite a competitive price on a bundle that includes the device and heat sticks. And that is a promotion that we're incurring the cost for. But when you look at somebody who purchases that bundle and then converts to IQOS over the course of the year, it's a relatively small investment for the significant income stream that creates.
Michael Lavery:
That's helpful. Thank you. And just one last one on obviously your smokeless segment operating margins are extremely high. How does this compare and how do you see it evolving over time, if it's different already today.
Howard Willard:
Yes, one of the real benefits of our participation in the nicotine pouch category with on! is that we think after a period of initial investment to build the business we think that the margins on! are likely to be similar to the kind of margins we have in the smokeless tobacco business. It shares many of the same manufacturing characteristics that we've developed on smokeless tobacco, so that could be a very high profit business going forward.
Michael Lavery:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Robert Rampton with UBS.
Robert Rampton:
Good morning. Probably just three questions from me. Sorry to just labor a point, but just to be clear, when you say a 5% to 8% CAGR over three years, do you mean in any given year 5% is the floor?
Howard Willard:
So our intention with that is that the base year would be 2019. And the CAGR between 2019 and 2022 would be between 5% and 8%.
Robert Rampton:
Okay, that's very clear. Thank you. And then, sorry, my second question. Could you give me more color on how that underlying 5.5% evolved over the course of the quarter. Obviously the press around FDA in terms was more toward the tail-end. But we are interested to hear that how that evolved.
Howard Willard:
Sure. I won't get into the details within the quarter, but I think, as you looked at that trend, obviously we had a 5.5% cigarette category decline rate, down from 6% in the second quarter. And certainly when you look at the sequential growth of e-vapor instead of picking up sequentially in the third quarter, it was largely flat from the second quarter. So I think, we'll see what happens in the fourth quarter, but I think the fourth quarter impact on e-vapor which might have some impact on cigarettes is likely to be based on what happens in the regulatory environment.
Robert Rampton:
Very clear thank you. I'm sorry, my final question is so certain states have taken action on flavors earlier than [indiscernible] by the FDA. Any early indications about what that's doing to cigarette volumes and so on and so forth?
Howard Willard:
I think it's fairly early days on some of those state actions and some of them I think had been held up with court challenges. So I think we'll have a much better read on that in the fourth quarter.
Robert Rampton:
All right. Thank you very much.
Speaker:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman with Citi.
Adam Spielman:
Hello. Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Hi Adam.
Adam Spielman:
Hi. So you said that you've already revised some of your marketing strategies in Atlanta for IQOS. I think, clearly you've already got some learnings there. And I was just wondering if you could, at a very high level, share what you have learned so far and what those changes have been in your marketing strategy? Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Sure. When I referenced the fact that we had changed and improved our IQOS marketing strategy, I was really referring to the fact that we were ready to launch more than a year ago. And because the authorization of the product took longer than we had expected, our marketing team had been meeting with PMI and learning from their experiences overseas and making adjustments to improve the marketing plan. I would say that we really haven't made significant changes versus our original launch plan since the product was placed in the market.
Adam Spielman:
Okay, thank you. Thank you. I'm sorry to have misunderstood, but I guess following from that when we get to the 4Q results, will you be able to give us I guess what PM has always done, which is some indication of market share for IQOS in the relevant geography. And any discussion about what you're learning. I'm quite intrigued about whether I'd like you to be able to say that you will update us on frankly how it's going in Atlanta?
Howard Willard:
Certainly we're going to provide what we think is appropriate to fill you in on how we think it's improving and where we're going to go from there. We'll decide what those appropriate metrics are as we move along, but certainly we're going to give you some insight into how it's performing.
Billy Gifford:
I think probably our biggest focus for the next three months or so is to measure our ability to drive awareness of the product in Atlanta to drive trial and then ultimately to deliver purchase and conversion. I think at this stage we're less focused on market share and we're more focused on some of those earlier precursors to generating market share in the market.
Adam Spielman:
In a year’s time what sort of market share would you say will represents a success for IQOS in Atlanta? Talking about December 2020, what would you hope to achieve by that?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I'm going to hesitate to comment on that. I think that's really what we're interested in learning from the Atlanta market. What I would say is that certainly the biggest success that IQOS has had is in Japan, and I don't expect that we will achieve those levels, although that's what we're going to try and learn in Atlanta. But I do believe that when you compare to some of the PMI experiences in Western Europe, I do think we have an advantage in that we have fairly large convenience stores with modern retail and it really provides a platform to billboard the product. And we also have quite good database resources to reach out to adult tobacco consumers. So, I would say we are optimistic about the progress we can make in the U.S. versus some of PMI's markets but I'll hesitate to make a speculation.
Adam Spielman:
And one final question from me and changing the subject completely, coming back to your comments about JUUL overseas, outside the U.S., you said one of the reasons you took down your assumptions overseas because -- is because some markets, let's say, India have just said we're not going to allow e-vapor. But I was wondering also if there was any evidence that in the markets where JUUL is being available, let's say Western Europe, Korea. The sales performance had been as good as you'd hoped or worse than you had sort of originally hoped, or better than you had hoped. And whether that performance in the markets where it's actually been launched affected your assumptions about -- or scenarios for international rollout of JUUL.
Howard Willard:
Sure. The primary driver of the adjustment we made in the JUUL international business valuation was more driven by the overall e-vapor category situation in various countries. It was not related to individual country performance based on JUUL's early launch results. And I have to say that it's now in many, many countries, but I would say it's still quite early to assess which countries it's going to have a real success in. So it was more driven by the overall e-vapor category environment than it was specific to JUUL's performance.
Adam Spielman:
Thank you very much. Thank you for my answering all my questions.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.
Steve Powers:
Hey, good morning. Thanks. Howard, I just wanted to take a moment and maybe revisit your opening comments surrounding the notion that the industry used to be predictable but now has become more dynamic and complex. I think we all realize that there has been significant volatility, especially in the last couple of years and that similar rate of volatility is likely to continue for some time, but is long term predictability no longer Altria's base case to the degree it might have ones been? And then how is that changing your approach to the market and the company's strategic considerations going forward? Maybe you could just elaborate a bit on that, that'll be helpful.
Howard Willard:
Sure. If you go back 10 years and think about the first five-year period of the last 10 years, we had very predictable and quite high EPS growth. And the primary driver of that was with strong operating companies income growth from our MST business and from our combustible cigarette business. And the volume decline rates in cigarettes was quite consistent and while we were making some investments in other categories, they really weren't having much of an impact on the decline rate of cigarettes and that generated quite a predictable and quite a satisfying level of EPS growth. I think that we believe that at least over the next three or four years, you could have some variability in the decline rate of the cigarette category as some of these non-combustible tobacco-product categories are launched, are invested in and start to build a larger base business. And it could take over the next three years it could take some time for the volume switching between categories to become more predictable. And certainly, we saw an accelerated decline in the cigarette category this year. But I would point out that it was the step up in that decline was almost wholly driven by more rapid e-vapor category growth. So the good news for the long-term success of the cigarette industry in the U.S. is consumers in the U.S. are still interested in satisfying nicotine products, they are just finding a variety of different ways to satisfy -- their desire for satisfying nicotine products. I do believe that we will enter probably a more predictable phase here, maybe in the later part of the next 10 years because I do think eventually we're going to get to the point where you've got larger and pretty well marketed on non-combustible tobacco product platforms that would include heated tobacco. I think e-vapor will get through this short-term disruption and return to a more predictable path. And then of course, oral tobacco including oral tobacco drive nicotine pouches are likely to also end up with a larger base business. So we think in the long term, the predictability and the profit growth that was provided largely by combustible cigarettes, that can be provided in the future, but it's likely to be from a portfolio products that provide nicotine satisfaction and we believe we've built a very compelling set of brands in each of those key categories that should generate nice EPS growth over the longer term.
Steve Powers:
Okay, great, thank you for that. Maybe sort of related and maybe to build on some of the earlier questions as e-vapor has come under increasing public scrutiny these past few months, I think everyone is looking for a noticeable change in trend in adjacent categories, and you've spoken a bit about that regarding smokeable demand, but do you anticipate any potential impact on smokeless as well as we think about what may or may not transpire over the next couple of quarters?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think if changes in the e-vapor growth rate are going to have an impact on other categories. I think we're more likely to see it probably in the first quarter or second quarter of next year. And I think you are right to point out that there is that growth rate changes or if the category goes through a decline next year, I would expect to see it potentially reflected in change in growth rates in combustible cigarettes, also moist smokeless tobacco. And you might also see a more favorable volume trend for IQOS and tobacco drive nicotine pouches, are driven by two things. If there is some e-vapor consumers that find their product of choice is no longer available, they may look to other product alternatives, and then a big driver of the growth of e-vapor this year was cigarette -- adult cigarette smokers, dual using and then moving to that category. If they're not moving to vapor anymore, they're likely stay in cigarettes or move somewhere else.
Steve Powers:
Thanks a lot. I appreciate it.
Howard Willard:
All right, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Petros Voulgaris with Goldman Sachs.
Petros Voulgaris:
Good morning, everyone.
Howard Willard:
Good morning.
Petros Voulgaris:
Two questions from me. Can you give some color into how you think about the continuum of risk with respect to how you weigh the differences and the probability of removal of menthol in e-cigs versus the probability of removal of menthol in cigarettes? And I guess as a follow up, could you shed a little light into what cohorts in terms of demographics might be exhibiting a slower rate of decline with respect to cigarette shipment volumes?
Howard Willard:
Sure. Let me try and address your first question, and I'll have Billy comment on your second one. I think that our expectation is that the FDA is going to provide further information on their final guidance in the e-vapor category. And I think our expectation is that that is going to impact flavored products in the e-vapor category. We don't have any indication that that FDA is going to communicate in the near term here any further perspective on removing menthol cigarettes from the market and that would require a completely different process. It's really not under way at this point in order to support that. I really think our expectation is that in the next couple of months we're going to hear really about flavors in e-vapor.
Billy Gifford:
Could I ask you to just clarify the second part of the question? I'm not sure, I completely understood it.
Petros Voulgaris:
Yes, I mean I know you look at the market at 21 and over. I don't know if there is like the age group from 20 to 30 is exhibiting a different rate of decline with respect to some of the older cohorts, or how you cut it. I was wondering if you could just shed a little light into the demographics and how like there is changing dynamics within the -- and how that's impacting cigarette shipment volumes?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I don't think there is any significant skew in age cohorts for cigarette shipment volume. You'll recall, as we talk about the e-vapor category, it has certainly been more attractive to that younger age cohort, call it 21 to 39. So they are more interested in the alternative product categories to a little bit higher extent than the older adult smoker above that 39 age group. But as far as overall decline, absent and moving to other categories, we don't see any significant skew by age cohort.
Operator:
Ladies and gentleman, we will now invite the media to participate in questions. [Operator Instructions] Your first question is from the line of Angelica LaVito with CNBC.
Angelica LaVito:
Good morning, thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to ask have you considered the possibility that the FDA does not authorize JUUL's PMTA?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think that with the filing date for the PMTAs moved from 2022 to May of next year, I think that creates a more challenging situation on both filing and -- filing approvable applications for all the e-vapor companies. However, I believe that JUUL is highly likely to end up filing a successful application and ultimately having their products authorized because they have a significant amount of resources applied against that task. And I think that one of the benefits they have going for them is that within the e-vapor category the JUUL product, I think, is distinguished itself compared to other e-vapor products as having quite a significant success at convincing adult cigarette smokers to convert ultimately to exclusive use of e-vapor. And I think that's one of the things that the FDA is going to consider in debating whether or not to approve an application.
Operator:
And your final question is from the line of Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
Good morning. I wonder if you could share your understanding of JUUL consumers' willingness to switch flavors. The company did get to observe on how consumers reacted when they pulled many of their flavors out of retail stores last year, a lot of people switched from Mango to mint. So, based on those observations and others, what is your best projection of what may happen if their flavors are limited to tobacco only.
Howard Willard:
Jennifer, thanks for the question. I have to tell you that I'm probably the wrong person to answer that question. I'm aware of the same trends that you referenced when some of their flavors, other than tobacco, menthol and mint were restricted in the marketplace. But given that we don't operate the JUUL business, I don't really have access to that kind of research. That's probably best directed toward JUUL management.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back to management for closing comments.
Howard Willard:
Thank you. To close, we believe we are the best positioned company to successfully navigate through the current tobacco environment. We have excellent profit growth and cash generation from our core tobacco businesses and we have built a diversified business platform of noncombustible products that can satisfy adult tobacco consumers and provide future profitability under many different future marketplace scenarios. Thanks again for joining us and please contact our Investor Relations team, if you have further questions.
Operator:
Thank you for participating in today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2019 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Paige Magness, Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead ma'am.
Paige Magness:
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Howard Willard, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, our CFO to discuss Altria's 2019 second quarter and first half business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results. We're also including slides to accompany our remarks. And all of this information is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor App. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2018. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. Share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S., Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both the reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Howard.
Howard Willard:
Thanks, Paige, and good morning everyone. Altria delivered excellent second quarter results driven by the performance of our core tobacco businesses. We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share nearly 9% in the second quarter, with each of our core tobacco segments delivering double-digit adjusted operating companies income growth, expanding their already impressive adjusted operating companies income margins, and maintaining momentum on their leading premium brands. The strong second quarter was a big step-up from the first as the negative smokable inventory impact in the first quarter reversed to a benefit in the second. The second quarter also saw the benefits of our cost-reduction program ramp-up and we expect these will continue to build through the year. In the second quarter, we made important progress further enhancing our business platform in non-combustible product offerings for adult tobacco consumers. In April, FDA authorized PMI's IQOS product for U.S. commercialization in the heated tobacco category. And in June, we signed an agreement to acquire 80% ownership of the companies that will globally commercialize on!, a leading product in the rapidly growing oral nicotine pouch category. We also saw an acceleration of consumer trends that we believe further validate the strategic actions that we've taken over the years. We believe that with our leading premium brands – with our leading premium tobacco brands U.S. commercialization rights to IQOS the leading global heated tobacco product our investment in Juul and pending transaction for on!. We're best positioned with a strong and resilient combustible business and the best noncombustible portfolio in the U.S. tobacco market. Let's turn first to our smokeable products segment. The smokeable products segment generated strong adjusted operating companies’ income growth of 11% in the second quarter, primarily driven by the benefit of higher pricing and the impact of our cost-reduction efforts. For the first half, the smokable segment delivered 5.7% adjusted operating company's income growth. PM USA is pleased with the Marlboro's continued stability with retail share of 43.3% unchanged versus the year-ago quarter and up 0.2 sequentially. Marlboro's performance continues to be supported by its leading brand equity bolstered by investments in product expansions, packaging innovation, and digital loyalty, and trade programs. In discount, L&M is performing in line with expectations and we are pleased with its increased profitability over time. We believe discount category dynamics continue to primarily reflect a churn between branded discount and deep discount offerings. The overall discount category grew 0.1 sequentially in the quarter to 24.2% and the discount category remains essentially line with historical share. Turning to cigarette volumes. The first half of 2019 saw large inventory fluctuations. Wholesalers depleted PM USA inventories by 400 million units in the first quarter and rebuilt inventories by 500 million units in the second quarter. The net result being a 100 million-unit benefit to reported volumes in the first half compared to a 400 million-unit depletion in the first half of 2018. We estimate that the adjusted industry decline rate in the second quarter was 6% up from 5% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and first quarter of 2019. Over the first half the adjusted cigarette industry decline rate was an estimated 5.5%. Let me provide you with some perspective on the factors driving category volume declines. Over the past 12 months, U.S. cigarette industry volumes declined by an estimated 5%. This represents a 0.5% increase versus the 12 months ended in the first quarter of 2019, which we estimate as primarily due to increased adult smoker movement to the e-vapor category. We believe this reflects both increased availability of satisfying e-vapor products that began midyear 2018 and higher levels of exclusive e-vapor use. After considering the latest information, we are revising our 2019 estimate of U.S. cigarette industry volume decline rate to 5% to 6% from a range of 4% to 5%. We have also considered the combined effects of the current acceleration in adult smoker movement across categories and the recent strong national momentum behind raising the legal age to purchase all tobacco products to 21, and our estimated cigarette declines through 2023. Specifically, we expand our five-year compounded annual average rate of category decline estimate to 4% to 6% from our previous range of 4% to 5%. It's informative to compare smokable business results versus historic category volume declines. In the first half, adjusted category volumes were down 5.5% and the smokable segment grew adjusted operating companies income 5.7%. By comparison over the past four years, adjusted category volumes declined approximately 3% on a compounded annual basis and the smokable segment grew adjusted operating companies income 5.2%. We believe this demonstrates how our strong and resilient smokable platform can deliver profit growth in the current volume decline environment. Solid profit growth is also demonstrated in our smokeless product segment results. USSTC is successfully executing against its strategy of maximizing income while maintaining momentum on Copenhagen over time. USSTC is one of the most profitable non-combustible tobacco businesses in the world and offers a portfolio of satisfying products with the potential for harm reduction. USSTC grew its adjusted operating companies income by 10.8% in the second quarter and 9.4% for the first half reflecting consistently strong results so far this year. And Copenhagen's category-leading retail share grew by 0.3 to 34.6% in the second quarter. USSTC's smokeless volume decreased an estimated 2% in the first half when adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movement. USSTC estimates that smokeless industry volume decreased 1.5% in the last six months. We believe these declines reflect increasing adult tobacco consumer interest in both e-vapor and oral nicotine pouches. In June, we announced an agreement to acquire 80% ownership of the companies that will commercialize On! oral nicotine pouches through Helix innovations, a newly-formed operating company. On! offers a total of 35 SKUs representing the broadest oral nicotine pouch portfolio in the U.S. market today. We expect the transaction to close in the second half of this year. In advance of closing Altria Group Distribution Company began expanding availability of the On! portfolio to select retailers this month. Upon closing our focus for On! will include further expanding retail distribution and visibility, building U.S. production capacity, building the On! brand through adult tobacco consumer engagement and preparing PMTAs for the On! portfolio. We're excited about adding On! to our business platform and pursuing a leadership position in this new and rapidly growing category. Also in non-combustibles IQOS has shown to be a leading product internationally. We're pleased to have access to an inhalable alternative that represents to the first next-generation tobacco product to receive FDA premarket authorization. We're ready to begin commercializing IQOS in the U.S. and are committed to its success. We expect the first IQOS store to open in Atlanta in September along with the other retail touch points including mobile retail units and retail kiosks all restricted to adult smokers. We plan to have the IQOS website live in August where adult smokers will be able to preorder their IQOS devices for pickup at the IQOS Atlanta store. Initially, we expect HeatStick distribution to be in approximately 500 Atlanta area stores. We are very excited to bring IQOS to adult smokers in the U.S. and intend to capitalize on this first-mover advantage. Turning the e-vapor. The category continues to grow as adult smokers increasingly find satisfying options in the category. We of course participate in the e-vapor category through our investment in Juul. After initial trial and experimentation with e-vapor adult vapor participation in the category declined from 2014 to 2016. The number of adult vapors reaccelerated upon the availability of more satisfying pod-based products. Based on our 12-month moving data, we estimate there are now 13.8 million adult vapors as of June 2019 up from 12.2 million at the end of 2018. Importantly that growth trend coincides with a trend towards more exclusive use in the category. According to our adult consumer tracking data, we estimate more than 7 million adults vape and do not smoke as of June 2019. In the first half of 2019, we estimate that e-vapor category volume grew by approximately 40% year-over-year across open and closed systems at all trade classes. Since 2017 and even considering more recent competitive product expansions, our data indicates that Juul has driven nearly all of the category growth. Juul share of the category across both open and closed systems grew to 48% in Q2 up from 44% in the first quarter and its full year 2018 share of 33%. Juul continues to be the category leader despite the removal of certain flavors at retail that caused the first quarter sequential volume slowdown. While competitors have responded by increasing the availability of non-traditional flavors we believe their tactics will ultimately be addressed with full implementation of FDA's ENDS guidance later this year. Internationally Juul continues to make progress expanding to additional markets. Since April Juul launched in several new markets which include Ireland, South Korea, Austria and the Philippines. Juul plans to launch additional markets by the end of this year, it's still early days for Juul international distribution. However, we are working to establish a measurement system that appropriately captures trade channels in overseas markets and provides a more complete view on consumer takeaway. Providing thoughtful solutions to address youth e-vapor use is a top priority. We know that the future viability of these products is at risk unless more is done to reverse the underage e-vapor use trend. We strongly believe that raising the legal age nationwide to purchase all tobacco products to 21 is one important step toward addressing this issue. So far our advocacy has helped drive significant progress at both the federal and state levels. Earlier this month, Ohio became the 18th state to make 21 the legal age of purchase. And now over half of the U.S. population is covered by legislation requiring 21 as the minimum age. Bipartisan federal legislation has also been introduced with broad support so the effort has strong momentum. We believe it is critical to preserve e-vapor products as an option for the more than 13 million adults who use them and the millions more adult smokers who are interested in non-combustible alternatives. Earlier this month in the case pending against FDA and federal court in Maryland, the court revised PMTA deadlines for new tobacco products on the market as of August 8, 2016 to be May 2020. According to the court order, new products for which applications have not been filed within this period will be subject to FDA enforcement discretion. We expect the new time lines to present a challenge for all companies impacted by the court's ruling. Juul has invested significant resources in preparing their applications and we are offering regulatory consulting services. In summary, our 2019 plans remain on track. We're operating at a rapidly changing industry. We've long anticipated consumer adoption of new types of products with potentially lower risk. This is one of the main reasons we supported FDA regulation many years ago to facilitate this change and it's why we've invested in the leading noncombustible products. The dynamics during the first half of the year further validate our strategy. With increasing success migrating adult smokers to noncombustible products, we're pleased that our strong core businesses are well positioned to provide profit growth through this transition. We continue to believe that we're building a business platform that enhances our ability to deliver solid performance and returns to shareholders over time and across a variety of scenarios. We reaffirm our guidance to deliver full year 2019 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.15 to $4.27. This range represents a growth rate of 4% to 7% from a 2018 adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.99. I'll now turn it over to Billy to provide more detail on our performance and other investments.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Howard, and good morning everyone. We'll begin with additional color on our smokeable products segment. Reported domestic cigarette volume increased 0.3% in the second quarter as trade inventory dynamics more than offset the industry rate of decline and year-over-year retail share declines. And adjusted for inventory movements and other factors, smokeable products segment cigarette volume declined by an estimated 7% for both the second quarter and first half. In the second quarter, the smokable products segment expanded OCI margins by 1.8 percentage points to 54.4%, driven by higher pricing and lower controllable cost, partially offset by higher resolution cost. In the smokeable products, segment strong price realization reflects both pricing actions and greater efficiency and use of promotional resources, thanks to investments made in trade programs, data analytics and consumer data. Net price realization was 7% in the second quarter and 7.7% for the first half. The mobile rewards program, continue to resonate with adult smokers and drive visits to mobile.com. In July, PM USA hit a terrific milestone with over two million enrollees and more than 100 million pack codes entered since the program launched in January. Beginning in April, PM USA expanded Marlboro Smooth Ice in the resale pack nationally which is now distributed in over 113,000 retail stores. Marlboro Smooth Ice continues to receive positive feedback from adult smokers and the trade. Between July and September, adult smokers can earn up to three times their rewards points for every pack of Marlboro Smooth Ice entered. We expect this offer to encourage trial of Marlboro Smooth Ice and drive repeat purchase among adult smokers. Building on its early success in the Western U.S., Nat Sherman expanded Nat's to all 50 states in the second quarter. Nat's competes in the super-premium segment and offers adult smokers a unique cigarette proposition of simply tobacco and water. And in cigars, volume grew 2.6% in the second quarter and Black & Mild continued its strength in the premium tip cigar segment. On the legislative front, we continue to monitor cigarette state excise tax increases. On July 1, SET increases in two states. Illinois and New Mexico went into effect, bringing the weighted average SET as of July 1 to $1.82 per pack, up $0.03 from $1.79 per pack when compared to both year-end 2018 and the first half of 2019. In smokeless, USSTC expanded adjusted OCI margins by 4.1 percentage points to a remarkable 74% in the second quarter, driven by higher pricing and lower costs. USSTC's retail share declined 0.2 in the second quarter to 53.9%. Copenhagen's retail share grew 0.3 share point to 34.6% and Skoal's retail share declined 0.6 share point to 15.8%. In May, USSTC opened the Original Snuff Shop in downtown Nashville. The Original Snuff Shop allows adult dippers to immerse themselves in Copenhagen's rich 200-year heritage and reinforces the brand's already strong equity among adult dippers. Turning to our alcohol assets. In wine, the premium segment continues to be highly competitive. Ste. Michelle delivered adjusted operated companies income of $19 million down 29.6% in the second quarter, primarily due to higher costs and unfavorable premium mix. To help reinvigorate its portfolio, Ste. Michelle is making investments to modernize its marketing approach through digital and packaging innovation, including the first quarter launch of 14 Hands and aluminum cans. In beer, adjusted earnings from our equity investment in ABI were $212 million in the second quarter, up more than 35% year-over-year, reflecting Altria's share of ABI's first quarter results. I'll turn briefly to our investment in cannabis. With its well-capitalized balance sheet, we believe Cronos is making good progress in executing against its growth strategy. Cronos continues to focus on augmenting its management with top talent and investing in intellectual property and differentiated brands. Cronos also recently announced its agreement to purchase a state-of-the-art production facility in Canada to advance its partnership with Ginkgo Bioworks and ultimately support large-scale cannabinoid production and efficiency. We continue to be excited about the global potential of the rapidly growing cannabis category and believe that U.S. federal legalization is inevitable. We also believe Altria's capabilities will help Cronos establish a leadership position in such scenario. Moving to our capital allocation. We continue to return a significant amount of cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. In the second quarter, we paid $1.5 billion in dividends and have a highly attractive dividend yield. Altria's current annualized dividend rate of $3.20 per share represents an annual dividend yield of 6.4% as of July 26, 2019. In the second quarter, we also repurchased 3.7 million shares for a total cost of $195 million, which concluded our $2 billion share repurchase program. Yesterday, the Board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of 2020. Our previously announced cost-reduction program remains on track and we still expect to realize $575 million in annualized cost savings by the end of 2019. The program includes savings from workforce reductions, third-party spending reductions and closure of our Nu Mark operations. Workforce reductions were largely completed in the first quarter, so our second quarter results reflect cost savings offsetting more of the incremental interest expense we incurred related to our transactions in the fourth quarter of last year. With that, we'll wrap up and Howard and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available in altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing inventory and other housekeeping items. With that, I'll open up the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong:
Thank you. Good morning. So Howard, I guess I had a question around the cost category movement that seems to be accelerating which is driving your reduced volume forecast for the cigarette industry. If you look at, I guess a lot of the movement last year, a lot of that came at the back half of the year. So I guess comparisons are probably getting a little bit easier just from that perspective. So are you expecting kind of that run rate 1.3% negative category cost movement on the cigarette volume to stay constant? Why do you think that that number doesn't necessarily fade, if you're kind of comping against a tougher comparison in the back half of the year?
Howard Willard:
Yes. I think you make a good point. When you look at the growth that's occurred in the e-vapor category, it really started to grow strongly at the beginning of 2018. And certainly, you had a much larger base in the second half of 2018 that will compare against in the second half of 2019. So it certainly could result in a slowdown in the percentage growth of the category. And frankly, that's why when we look at our annual estimate for the decline rate of the cigarette category, it's a range, because I think it would take that into account.
Judy Hong:
And then can you just provide a bit more color just in terms of taking down kind of the medium-term guidance down 4% to 6%, and your level of confidence that that range is comfortable enough just given that that projection has come down in the last two quarters?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think that we originally had a five-year compound annual decline rate of the cigarette category of 4% to 5% and we provided that at the end of last year. And our thinking was that we knew that there was an acceleration in the growth rate of the e-vapor category, but we also knew from experience both overseas and in the U.S. that typically an acceleration of the growth rate of a category driven by newly available or more broadly available products tends to run its course in a year or two, and so we felt fairly good at that point given the activity in the marketplace at 4% to 5%. In the second quarter of this year, a couple of things have happened that caused us to increase the top end of that decline range. First of all, IQOS was approved. And I think that IQOS is going to be on a nice growth trajectory as it expands nationwide over the next couple of years. So that's an additional influence on the cigarette category decline rate. And we also made our investment in on!. We think it's got a very strong portfolio of nicotine-containing pouches and of course you will have access to our infrastructure. And then on top of that, we've also had increased momentum behind increasing the minimum age to purchase to 21. We've now got 50% of U.S. population in jurisdictions where the minimum age to purchase to 21. So we thought given that range of changes that it made sense to broaden the decline range for the cigarette category over the next five years.
Judy Hong:
Okay. And then my last question Howard just on Juul. So in December -- or I guess in February, you laid out your key transaction assumptions around Juul both U.S. and internationally. So now that you obviously have invested in the business for seven months or so, can you provide us with some color on how those assumptions have changed if at all and whether the PMTA deadline being pulled forward impact some of those assumptions going forward?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think if you looked at our assumptions, I think we expected that Juul would have a quite strong revenue growth following our investment. And I think we also had a belief that there was quite an attractive opportunity at the gross margin line as well. I have to say in the first half of this year Juul has performed quite strongly against both of those assumptions and we feel very good about their performance there. With regard to developing operating companies income both domestically and overseas, I think it's -- we're not yet at a stage where we've got the information necessary to judge that. There's still a bit investment spending mode both domestically and overseas. And I think it's simply too soon to make a judgment on the progress they're making overseas that's more of early days there. With regard to your question about the change in the filing date for their PMTA, there is no question that the due date for filing a PMTA and all the e-vapor products being moved to May of next year represents a significant challenge for all the companies that are impacted by it. And certainly, Juul is very focused on continuing to work on that, continuing to ramp up their resource investment and we're providing them with consulting resources in the regulatory space as well. But that certainly raised the pressure on I think all the companies in the e-vapor space. With that said, I think the way that Juul's performance has evolved here over the last several months they should have a very strong case to make in their PMTA. If you look at their response to the increase in youth usage, Juul took very aggressive action in the third quarter of last year by removing their nontraditional flavored products from retail. They are really the only major player to have done that and I think that was a big step forward in demonstrating their responsibility and their concern for the issue. In addition they have also been very supportive of raising the minimum age to purchase to 21. And a lot of those laws kicked in July 1st and so we're going to start to see the impact of that going forward. And so I think that when you compare them to other players in the e-vapor category, they've been more aggressive in addressing the youth issue. Secondly, I think they are also the primary driver of increased switching of adult cigarette smokers to the e-vapor category. And of course that's something that the FDA is going to consider in looking into PMTA as whether or not the company who's filing for the PMTA is having a significant impact on moving people down the continuum of harm. So, I think they have a very good science and evidence to support their application, but there is no doubt that the shortened timeline represents an increased challenge for everybody.
Judy Hong:
Got it. Okay. Thank you very much
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from Vivien Azer of Cowen and Co.
Vivien Azer:
Hi, good morning.
Howard Willard:
Good morning Vivien.
Vivien Azer:
So, my first question is on the cigarette volume outlook as well. I just wanted to be entirely clear Howard. As you guys have revised to down 5% to 6%, what does that assume in terms of the evolution of cross-category conversion?
Howard Willard:
Well, I think given that the range is 5% to 6% and for the first half we are at a 5.5% decline rate, it actually covers quite a broad range of scenarios in the back half of the year. It would still be supportive even if the volume in the back half of the year for the cigarette category declined at a lower rate. And certainly that could happen it was raised earlier on the call that there is certainly a tougher comp for the e-vapor category in the back half of last year. So, it certainly allows for a slowdown in the decline rate of the cigarette category. And it also allows for a continuation of the strong growth in e-vapor. I have to say that I don't believe we're going to have a significant impact in the second half of this year from iQOS because it's going to be in a limited geography that's probably more of a future year impact. But the benefit of having a 5% to 6% range covers quite a broad set of scenarios for the second half of the year.
Vivien Azer:
Okay, that's helpful. But suffice it to say then if the first half is down 5.5% at the midpoint of your now revised full year guidance, it does not contemplate a meaningful step function or in terms of the cross-category movement like you're not expecting cross-category movement to become an even bigger headwind in the back half is that fair?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I think that's largely fair. And I think that given the much larger second half last year number of e-vapors and the larger volume of e-vapor in the back half of last year, I think we thought that was prudent.
Vivien Azer:
Okay. Yes. I agree with that for sure. That's helpful. Thank you. And then just my other question is on the moist smokeless tobacco category. So, we've seen category volumes decline for six consecutive quarters now. You called out the impact of both e-vapor as well as other oral tobacco products. So, can you just offer some color on how you're thinking about that category through the rest of the year? And perhaps on a five-year basis could seemingly the outlook for moist smokeless tobacco has changed in line with cigarettes? Thanks.
Howard Willard:
Yes. I mean I think the change in growth trajectory of the smokeless tobacco category has largely occurred over the last four or five years. We'll remember back four or five years ago the smokeless tobacco category was growing 4% to 5% a year. And I think the reason for that was that it was the primary recipient of adult cigarette smokers that were looking for an alternative and they were moving to moist smokeless tobacco. I think with the increased availability and attractiveness of e-vapor products and certainly also now most recently these nicotine-containing pouches I think that folks that used to go to the moist smokeless tobacco category and drive nice growth there are primarily going to the e-vapor category and I think in the future will have an additional option in nicotine-containing pouches. And so I think that we expect that the category is going to remain kind of at a small decline rate going forward although we haven't made a precise projection. I would point out that even given the slowdown in the growth rate of the category, it's still generating quite nice profit growth.
Vivien Azer:
Absolutely, that's helpful. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is from Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie Herzog:
Hi, thank you. Good morning. I actually wanted to ask about your model again in the context of your weaker outlook for the industry cig volumes. Just trying to think about this if anything has changed with your model in terms of your ability to deliver profit growth over the long-term? And maybe you could touch further on the different levers you have to pull to offset the ongoing cig volume pressure such as pricing. And Howard also I'm not sure, but I don't think you mentioned price increases negatively impacting your outlook for industry volume, but I imagine that's a factor too?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think as we look at the opportunity to deliver against our long-term aspiration of 7% to 9% EPS growth, we continue to feel good about the tools we have at our disposal to deliver that over the long-term. And I think it starts off with we think quite a healthy and resilient combustible business. I think you saw in the first half of this year how the profit growth was quite strong in that business despite the fact that there was a stepped-up decline in the overall industry volume. And of course the two contributors of that -- to that nice profit growth were price increases coming from both list price and improved promotional efficiency and cost reduction in the category. And I think we have long believed that that business is quite resilient and can deliver nice profit growth even in an environment where the industry volume declines step up a bit. Now of course in addition to the profit growth opportunity we have with our core businesses, we also expect once we get HSR approval to have equity income from Juul. And given Juul's strong revenue and volume growth this year, we would expect that going forward in addition to having now the profit growth from our core tobacco businesses, we'd get an equity income contribution from Juul. And we think that the sum of the growth from our combustible tobacco business plus the 35% contribution to our equity income from Juul, we think that that sets us up very well to deliver in the future. And then of course, as their international business develops, that is a further incremental opportunity for profit growth as a 35% economic interest brings that to our equity income line as well. So I don't know that we feel that our model has really changed on how we would deliver, although, I have to acknowledge we've widened the range a bit, but we still feel very comfortable about our long-term 7% to 9% EPS aspiration.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. That's helpful. And then speaking of Juul, is there anything you can share with us in terms of the improvements maybe you've been seeing in Juul's business either sequentially or year-over-year? And you touched on their expansion internationally and that seems to be going quite well, but they have been investing quite a bit to build that growth. So just how should we think about Juul's model, I guess over the long-term? Obviously, we don't have a lot of visibility yet, but maybe you could shed a little bit of light on that for us, please?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think there's been quite a bit of change in the marketplace in the e-vapor space in the U.S. for the first half of the year. So Juul withdrew their flavors. There was a slowdown in their volume growth in the first quarter, although, they went back to strong volume growth in the second quarter. So I think that's the first thing I would say is that despite their withdrawal of non-traditional flavors from retail, they still seem to have a healthy growth profile, which I think it's a positive. And that's occurring despite the fact that the other major pod-based manufacturers have not decided to withdraw their flavors from retail. As a matter of fact, they've increased availability and they've been growing the flavored volume that they have at retail. So certainly that has an impact on Juul, but they still had a nice healthy growth rate in the first half of the year despite that. And I would expect that Juul will have a benefit when the FDA finalizes their ENDS guidance and those other players have to join Juul in restricting the availability of flavors at retail. So I think that's another a positive that’s likely to come in the second half of the year. So I think overall in the U.S. market, I think it's been a strong performance for vapor overall and certainly for Juul. I think overseas, it's still early days. And I think, it's probably going to take another year to really get the same kind of positive assessment that we're able to get for the U.S. market today, but certainly, their expansion is going well and I think with the passage of time, we'll see how they do overseas.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right. Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is from Michael Lavery of Piper Jaffray.
Michael Lavery:
Good morning.
Howard Willard:
Hi, Michael.
Michael Lavery:
Can you just touch on what if anything you have included for on! in guidance in the second half?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah, I think it's important to remember Michael that we expected to close in the second half. So from a standpoint of anything material, we don't expect anything material this year from on!.
Michael Lavery:
And any more specific on the timing? Is that imminent later in the second half? Do you have a sense of when that might happen?
Billy Gifford:
No. We're working with the other side, but we expect to close in the second half.
Michael Lavery:
Okay.
Howard Willard:
I would put down Michael though that we have agreed in advance of closing that AGDC is going to provide distribution services to expand the product availability at retail that started this month. So we are getting the benefit of starting to expand its availability in the marketplace in advance of closing, which I think is a real plus.
Michael Lavery:
And does that have service revenues related to it, or is it just position the brand to be in -- does it just set up the brand to be in a better position once it closes?
Howard Willard:
Yeah. I wouldn't think the service revenues is being at all material, it's really -- the real benefit is that the business is going to get a chance to ramp up, so that it is much better positioned to compete with other players post closing.
Michael Lavery:
And then just looking at Cronos, do you have any involvement in helping partner to shape their plans, or as far as that contribution to your equity income, is it just sort of you're left with whatever you get?
Howard Willard:
No, I think we have quite a bit of influence on their strategy going forward. We have the majority of the seats on the Board and we work very closely through our Board representatives at helping Cronos think through their plans going forward. And I think we invested in them, because we thought they had an excellent management team and a good strategy to begin with. And I have to say we work very well together and I think we're making real progress. Although, we acknowledge in the cannabis space overall it's early days.
Michael Lavery:
No. It sounds like good line of thought. That's nice. And then just on your medium term now 4% to 6% decline outlook for the cigarette category. You mentioned the revision having some consideration for things like IQOS being approved and your expansion of distribution for on! and of course, the vapor momentum we're seeing. Is it fair to assume that if IQOS had stronger momentum than in some markets more something like Japan perhaps clearly that would be a very different number? At the moment you have -- it seems like a pretty modest -- conservative expectation for that will do. How are you thinking about the five-year view for that?
Howard Willard:
Yeah. I think I would say that that provides an opportunity for kind of a midrange performance on IQOS. I can tell you if we had a Japan like performance we would be delighted. And at some point we might be considering whether or not to step up the decline rate again. We feel like there's a fair amount of opportunity for IQOS to grow even within that 4% to 6% decline range, because our assumption is that given the rapid growth rate we've seen in e-vapor in 2018 and in the first half of 2019, we think that the e-vapor products are broadly available throughout retail and have been for over a year. And at some point, we think that you're going to reach a saturation point on e-vapor. And you might even see an impact from the shakeout of many of the e-vapor products coming out of the market next year. So, I wouldn't necessarily draw a straight line for growth on the e-vapor category, and I think that leaves plenty of opportunity for a strong growth on iQOS. And I think oral nicotine pouches their overall impact is likely to be smaller than either e-vapor or heat-not-burn. But we do believe that these clean white oral nicotine pouches are likely to appeal first and foremost to MST users, but I think are also a good alternative for adult cigarette smokers. And they are much more approachable than traditional moist smokeless tobacco pouches or even snus pouches.
Michael Lavery:
That’s helpful. Thank you very much.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is from Paula Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.
Pam Kaufman:
Hi. Good morning. It's Pam Kaufman. I just wanted to follow-up on the questions about your updated long-term rate of decline of 4% to 6%. If we assume that your volumes will decline at 5% annually, which is the midpoint of your outlook for the industry through 2023, your volumes would be about 20% to 25% below where they are today. What gives you confidence that you can sustain your long-term growth algorithm and generate -- continue to generate pricing growth in excess of those volume declines? And I guess based on the frequent rate of downward revisions, recently for the industry for this year, what should give investors confidence that your outlook for the mid-term won't go lower?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think, the confidence we have that we can continue to generate nice profit growth out of our combustible segment is driven by the experience we've had in driving profit growth in that business through both pricing and cost management. And certainly, when we've seen in prior periods a step-up in the decline rate of the volume, typically we've had the opportunity to continue to drive similar profit growth by utilizing those tools slightly differently going forward. But, certainly in the event that we see a modest slowdown in our ability to grow profit in the combustible segment because of a higher rate of volume decline, we would have a further offset to that to further accelerate profit growth of our EPS coming from the equity income contribution from Juul. And we feel strongly that the sum of our combustible profit growth add it to the equity income we get from Juul that, that ought to compare favorably to our ability to grow profit in the past. With regard to your question about how comfortable are we with 4% to 6% as a five-year compound annual growth rate of cigarette volume declines, we feel like that's a wide range that covers a whole variety of scenarios, and at this point we feel quite comfortable giving conditions in the marketplace. But I would point out that one of the reasons that we've worked so hard to build the leading portfolio of non-combustible tobacco products is that our belief is that it's hard to predict with precision, the pace at which adult cigarette smokers may switch to non-combustible tobacco products in the future. And so, what we've done is we've essentially built the product portfolio of non-combustible tobacco products such that if the movement of adult cigarette smokers out of cigarettes into these other product categories accelerates, we have the opportunity to benefit from that movement with profitable products that lead their categories. And essentially, if there's a step-down in our ability to grow profitability in the combustible business, we would expect to make it up either in -- with iQOS and heat-not-burn with on, and oral nicotine pouches or through our equity income from Juul. So, we think we've hedged that opportunity. Although, I have no reason to believe that that 4% to 6% range is inadequate based on the current market conditions and our understanding of what the future is going to bring.
Pam Kaufman:
Thanks. Also it seems like there maybe a number of regulatory developments coming up this fall. What do you expect from the next wave of the National Youth Tobacco Survey? And would you expect this to impact Juul's PMTA approval prospects? And then separately the FDA indicated that it plans to publish a proposed nicotine rule later this year. Do you believe that they'll all stick to this target?
Howard Willard:
Sure. You're right, we do expect probably in the third quarter to get another update on youth usage of e-vapor products. I think it's hard to determine what exactly those figures will show, but it would not surprise me, if you saw youth use of e-vapor products continue at the prior year level or even take a step-up, because there's been a number of actions taken to drive down youth use of e-vapor products. But I don't know that we've had the time that is passed to get the impact of that. Even the FDA's ENDS guidance on restricting flavors to -- at retail, hasn't been finalized yet. And while there's been a benefit from Juul withdrawing their flavors, the other manufacturers have expanded the availability of flavors. So, I think you're going to have to wait until FDA finalizes that guidance and enforces against the other players to get the impact. There's been good progress on raising the minimum age to purchase to 21, but I would say the bulk of that impact is at July 1 and moving forward kind of impact, so that's going to take a while. So, I think the expectation is that a lot of the actions that -- and frankly the FDA has expanded their advertising campaign to discourage youth from using e-vapor products. So there's a lot going on. I just think that the expectation would be that it's going to have a significant impact going forward. I just don't know that I would expect that it's been a long enough period of time for those actions to see it in the September numbers. With regard to FDA issuing further guidance on their nicotine regulation, they had indicated that they may publish something later this year. Given the past track record, I think that means that it may or may not come out. But I think we've communicated before, we think that ultimately any implementation of a nicotine ceiling on cigarette products we think is a very long-term action and it would take quite some time for FDA to finalize that regulation and implement it. And of course, we don't think that what they have proposed in the past is feasible today and we don't think it's supported by the science. So we may expect to see some short-term progress there, but we think it's a long-term impact.
Pam Kaufman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Chris Growe of Stifel.
Chris Growe:
Hi good morning.
Billy Gifford:
Hi Chris.
Chris Growe:
Hi. I just had two sort of follow-up questions. I guess first, have you given any kind of update on receiving FTC approval for your Juul investment? And I know that your guidance incorporates, you said some modest profit contribution from your investments this year. It would seem like you have some profit built in for the year. Is that presumably in the fourth quarter because we don't have an update yet from -- on this FTC approval?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Chris on the FTC, we still expect the approval latter part of this year beginning of next. And I think what we had said previously about both Cronos and Juul is we had no material impact in our guidance.
Chris Growe:
Okay. And then in relation to iQOS, it launched in September. I just want to get a sense of the -- is there is a step-up of investment that occurs in the quarter to accommodate the launch of the product because we're thinking about the phasing of earnings, or are is -- a lot of those expenses already been sort of realized or undertaken as part of the P&L?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. When we issued guidance we said we incorporated the iQOS lead market. Certainly there are always puts and takes, but we run various scenarios when we have that range of guidance and that's all incorporated.
Chris Growe:
Okay. Just one final question which is in relation to the June price increase that occurred in combustible, are there -- do you believe inventories are the right level today, or was there any kind of build, given that came a bit of a surprise that occurred around that pricing they might have to work through in the third quarter?
Howard Willard:
Yes. I think it's informative to look at where the inventories ended the second quarter. Compare that to historical levels and they're essentially in line with historical levels of inventory.
Chris Growe:
I agree, okay. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is from Owen Bennett of Jefferies.
Owen Bennett:
Good morning guys. Hope all well. Just one question from me, I just -- if I saw that right on the slide, you said that Juul is basically driving all the additional adult and vapor use. I mean that seems kind of very impressive, but I was just wondering in the context, I mean those competition that haven't removed all their flavors competition as well spending a lot of money, doing TV adverts et-cetera. What do you think is actually just driving that success of Juul and actually being a contributor to a lot of additional growth?
Howard Willard:
You're right. I think Juul has had an impressive first half and they've had some challenges that they've taken on that the other participants haven't. And frankly, I think it's further evidence of the fact that amongst adult tobacco consumers, I think Juul has real brand equity and I think it has a superior product. And I think that as more and more adult tobacco consumers are exposed to the product I think increasingly folks are adding Juul to their tobacco product use. And as you saw from the numbers that they're setting down their cigarettes and moving over exclusively to e-vapor, I think in increasing numbers as well. So I've been very pleased by it. Certainly there's a high level of competitive activity in the marketplace, but I think that Juul has performed quite admirably in the first half of this year despite all that activity.
Owen Bennett:
Okay. And just one more follow-up in terms of you said there's a likely continued increase in youth usage and I'd imagine obviously that's going to be a key focus over PMTA. So all the players will need to go grasp it potentially how much of their volumes are coming from youth? So I mean obviously Juul driving all the additional adult use if youth usage is going to increase, I mean have you got any sort of idea of how much share of that Juul is taken or whether that's dropping off now?
Howard Willard:
Yes. I really don't and I don't know that I'm in a position to be able to forecast what the youth numbers are going to show in the third quarter, when they come out. I just know from experience back in the late '90s, when you had a step-up in youth use of cigarettes, a similar very comprehensive effort was put in place to drive down youth usage of cigarettes. It was ultimately quite successful. But the impact of all that activity, it didn't happen in a quarter or two, it happened over the following one to three or four years. And so I think I just steeled myself to the fact that despite all the progress that's been made including raising the minimum age to purchase to 21 and jurisdictions with over half the population in progress at the federal level, I sort of just looked at the past. And I've steeled myself to the fact that even if we're winning that battle it may take a bit of time for the results to materialize.
Owen Bennett:
Okay. And has that been a risk even kind of, we need to see in part by or May next year when the PMTAs got in? So three to four years is not really kind of what's needed in this instance?
Howard Willard:
Yes. Certainly really all the e-vapor companies that are now going to be filing in May of next year they're going to have less time will have passed to allow youth e-vapor rates to decline. So I think that's a risk really across the category for people to file. But I would point out that FDA, I think, has indicated that they appreciate the impact that the e-vapor category is having on converting adult cigarette smokers down the continuum of harm. Clearly that switching, and particularly the switching to e-vapor use without continuing to use cigarettes is accelerating. So I think ultimately FDA is going to have to balance that favorable adult movement down the continuum of harm which is quite strong and quite favorable against the fact that youth e-vapor rates have not yet stepped down. But I think FDA certainly has access to a lot of expertise and I think they can certainly assess whether or not the step-down is coming and consider that as they review those PMTAs.
Owen Bennett:
Thank you very much. Much appreciate it.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam Spielman:
Thank you very much. I've got two questions, if I can. The first one concerns down trading in the existing cigarette business. So one of the things that clearly you're doing is you're taking prices up and price gaps are widening. But at the same time, you presented data and it's not the first time. But so, it's really there's very little down trading. That's mainly churn at the bottom end. And I'm really intrigued by that. Because, I don't think, it's the historic pattern. I sort of wonder why it is. Is it maybe that actually within, let's say Marlboro, there are more people buying cheaper variants, or is there somewhat of an explanation about why there isn't down trading? So that's the first question.
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think you are right that the, the strength of the premium category in the U.S. has been persistently strong really since 2011, when we launched the new Marlboro architecture. And as a matter of fact since 2011, the overall discount category is down, more than a share point. So, the U.S. market has been quite strong in that regard. In the premium category, it's much larger in the U.S. market than it is in many markets overseas. So I wouldn't say that this phenomenon that is occurring today is unusual, compared to the last six or seven years, I think it's actually more the pattern. The price gap over the last year or two has gone from 29% to 31%. So it's had a small increase. But I would say that's not a material increase. And I think that, I think that the strong equity of the premium brands in the category, I think has an impact on consumers deciding. They'd rather pay a bit more to get their brand of choice rather than move down into discount. So I think it's a sign of a very healthy premium category. Now with regard to whether or not there's movement within the Marlboro portfolio. Certainly, in the period during the great recession and shortly thereafter, there was an increased movement between both premium price part of the Marlboro portfolio and the special blend. But given the strength of the economy today, there's really not an appreciable movement into that part of the portfolio. And of course the pricing that we share each year, takes into account the change in the weighted average price across the Marlboro portfolio. So that's factored into the numbers.
Adam Spielman:
Okay. Thank you very much. And I just wanted to follow-up briefly on, an answer you gave to other in the call. So you said that in 2Q, this is a question about Juul. That you said in 2Q, that Juul was growing very, very nicely. But I was wondering, I know you're not going to quantify that to the last decimal place. But I was wondering is it relative to the run rates in the second half of last year? Are we sort of talking volumes up 20%, up 50%, up 100%? Any sort of ballpark in that direction, or 10%? Are you able to give some sort of ballpark figure for that sort of growth?
Howard Willard:
Sure. In the first half of 2019, the category growth was 40% for the overall e-vapor category. And it was 195% for Juul. And that's on Slide 18. And of course, we also referenced Juul's share growth on the second quarter compared to the first quarter and the full year 2018. Their share growth was 48% in Q2, up from 44% in Q1, and up from 33% in full year 2018.
Adam Spielman:
Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Adam Spielman:
That’s very helpful.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.
Steve Powers:
Hey, great thanks…
Howard Willard:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Powers:
Hey, hey. So following up on, your comments related to the PMTA process and the need for filers and the FDA to balance youth usage against the efficacy of e-vapor to convert adult smokers. I guess, I'm looking for a little bit more color on how that factors in, to how you may consult Juul specifically in its PMTA application process. Because on the one hand it's leading that adult conversion, so that's a positive. Yet on the other hand, it's -- their current product is clearly associated with underage usage. And the potential lack of data on the efficacy of their steps to reduce that usage. Just being in hand by the time approval needs to be granted, it just seems a potential liability. So what's your perspective on those dynamics as it relates to Juul? And how that might impact? How they apply or their application in general?
Howard Willard:
Yeah. I don't know that I have more to say on that topic. I think the youth usage of e-vapor products is a challenge that every filer is going to have to deal with. And I think ultimately FDA is going to have to take all of that onboard. I think we have the benefit though, that the FDA can approve a product through the PMTA process. And then, require the filer to do post-market surveillance. And if they find that, the favorable outcomes they expected to come from that product, don't materialize in the years that follow. They can withdraw their approval. So I think that, in a situation like we're faced here with e-vapor, where there's very strong conversion of adult cigarette smokers. But we don't yet know whether or not youth rates are going to go down quite rapidly and what the timing will be. That might very well be a situation where post-market surveillance was frankly designed for that situation. And FDA can approve certain products, require post-market surveillance to essentially change their view based on what happens in the years that follow.
Steve Powers:
Okay. That's very helpful. Yeah. That's clear. Thank you very much. I guess the second question, I have is just another follow-up on Juul and your comments earlier. I know you said, that Juul has been performing impressively and quite strongly against your going-in expectations year-to-date. But just to be clear, is it fair to say it's running above expectations, at least as it relates with the U.S. because I'm just trying to triangulate between, the lowering of your smokable volume outlook. And the primary role that e-vapor is playing in that. And presumably the role that Juul is playing in that conversion. So you just either -- it either suggested Juul is trending above expectations your own expectations. Or that you've seen better-than-expected performance from some of the other e-vapor brands? So just maybe can you clarify those dynamics please?
Howard Willard:
Yeah. I would say that, in the first half of the year Juul is generally performing in line with our expectations. I know we had a range of expectations. So I don't know that it's substantially exceeding those expectations. I would say that, one factor that did occur particularly in the first half of this year, that I think probably has an impact on the cigarette category decline rate, is that not only did we see the number of adult vapers increase, as we expected it to going to 13.8 million compared to 12.2 million from June to the end of last year. We also saw a pretty good step-up in the number of adult vapors that are no longer smoking. And certainly if somebody goes from smoking to dual using cigarettes and e-vapor then moves all the way to exclusive e-vapor use that could have a modest step-up on the cigarette decline rate. So certainly that happened in the first half. I don't know that we had a hardened past view on what would happen there, but certainly it stepped up. And compared to history it's at a higher level than it's been since 2014.
Steve Powers:
Okay. So just to clarify so it sounds like Juul and the industry performing at the higher end of your going-in expectations plus maybe a bit more full conversion full cessation of smoking than was implied in the baseline is that a good summary?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I think that's right.
Steve Powers:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Howard Willard:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from Gaurav Jain of Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Thank you. Good morning. So I have a question on your smokeless tobacco business where margins are 74%, EBITDA north of $2. So could just expand on there is a risk that you cannibalize your own smokeless business unless the margins are on the scale out similar to your current smokeless business? So how do we think about that dichotomy?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. You're exactly right. We're very pleased with the high margins that we're able to achieve in the smokeless category. From a standpoint of On! we think through time they will achieve tobacco-like margins.
Gaurav Jain:
So by tobacco you mean smokeless-like margins?
Billy Gifford:
That is correct.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. Now coming to cigars I'm aware that it's a very small part of your business. But in a FDA clearly as three-pronged approach here to flavored cigars. They will finalize the draft guidance by October 2019. There will be a PMTA by May 2020. And then there's a rule-making process as well. So how should we think about the cigar business long-term?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think, we feel good about our cigar business. You are right that the FDA has said they're going to finalize some guidance on flavors in cigars later this year. I think we along with others in industry have stated that we don't think they have very good signs and evidence base to restrict the availability of flavored cigars. So we think ultimately that is going to be challenged and we feel that there's a very strong case to challenge that. Secondly, you're right that for products that don't already have a market order because they are grandfathered or have received an SE they're going to have to file PMTAs on this new accelerated deadline of May of next year. So for some cigar companies that could pose a significant issue for them and they may lose the ability to sell some of their cigar products. By and large that doesn't apply to us. The vast majority of our cigar products have market orders either because they're grandfathered or have received FDA notices. And then of course with regard to any rule-making they might make in the longer term relating to flavors or other things again they're going to have the obligation to support that with science and evidence. And we feel good about our ability to make case that our cigar products in any case are responsibly participating in the marketplace.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. Thank you. And if I can ask one last question. So on cigarettes -- what we have seen this year is that pricing has gone up above expectations and volumes have come in below expectations and that substitute product which is e-cigarettes they aren't really taking any pricing and they haven't taken any pricing for two years. So as we look out does the e-cigarette cannibalization increase over time as price gaps keep widening? And what has been your experience over the last two years?
Howard Willard:
Yes. I'm not going to speculate on future pricing. I think that consumers are moving into e-vapor because of significant benefits that those products have unrelated to price and I'm not going to speculate on future pricing. Thank you.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from Petros Voulgaris of Goldman Sachs.
Petros Voulgaris:
Good morning, everybody.
Howard Willard:
Good morning.
Petros Voulgaris:
We've discussed IQOS's inclusion in MSA before and how that operates as a tax. But I'm wondering with respect to how IQOS is counted towards the MSA will one HeatStick be equivalent to one cigarette or will there be some other measurement? And as a follow-up are there ways through different product iterations or some other modification for IQOS not to be included in the MSA?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think when you think about it one HeatStick would be the equivalent of one cigarette because the definition incorporates it that way. And I'm not going to speculate on what future product iterations could be inside or outside of the MSA.
Petros Voulgaris:
Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from Jennifer Maloney of Wall Street Journal.
Jennifer Maloney:
Hi good morning.
Howard Willard:
Hi Jennifer
Jennifer Maloney:
I wonder if you can give us an update on direct mailings to your cigarette consumers and onserts or inserts in cigarette packs on behalf of Juul. How many have you sent out? And what are the redemption rates looking like?
Howard Willard:
Yes. We don't share level of that detail. Both direct mailings and onserts to date have occurred. And I know that there is further activity that's planned between now and the end of the year communicating about the benefits of Juul, but we haven't shared numbers or fine details on that.
Jennifer Maloney:
Broadly speaking, have the results of those changed your estimates for sort of what cannibalization you expect to see specifically on your brands from Juul?
Howard Willard:
No it hasn't.
Jennifer Maloney:
Okay.
Howard Willard:
I don't think we've seen anything that caused us to change our views on Juul's growth rate or the cannibalization of our products.
Jennifer Maloney:
Okay. Thanks.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is from Robert Rampton of UBS.
Robert Rampton:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on that cannibalization question. So, could you give us some more color on what is the cannibalization rate of e-cigarettes? Say for every 100 puffs, how many are coming from cigarettes? One of your peers put that number at 25%. Would you be -- would you disagree with that?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I don't know that I've got a precise point of view on that. I think, we think about it more along the lines of how the category growth rate in e-vapor is developing and then we take into account all the impacts on the overall cigarette category. I don't know that we've kind of looked at it that way and I don't know that I have any greater precision to share with you.
Robert Rampton:
Okay. Fair enough. So second question, just on IQOS, your earlier comments seem to further -- your expected range is between zero and Japan at 20 and you're at the midpoint, so I'm guessing around 10%. Can you give us some color on what your expectations for IQOS in the U.S. are based off?
Howard Willard:
Yes. I don't know that we've firmed up an expectation for IQOS. I think our belief -- certainly, we know the experience in a variety of markets overseas. I think our belief is that that's one of the key things we're going to learn in going into the Atlanta test market. And I think, we'll know probably in the next six to nine months kind of what the U.S. experience is with IQOS. And of course, we're going to put significant resources and significant activity behind it in order to drive it towards the high end of what it can do in the U.S. But I don't know that we've got a precise answer as to how we think it's going to compare in the U.S. to overseas, but we do know that we're going to put the resources behind it to make sure that it does as well in the U.S. as is humanly possible.
Robert Rampton:
Fair enough. Thank you, very much.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks.
Howard Willard:
Thank you, Christie. To close, we're on track to deliver against our 2019 earnings guidance. We believe Altria is well positioned through the combination of excellent profit growth from our core tobacco businesses and strategic positions in key noncombustible product categories to lead our industry through a period of evolution just as we have in the past. Thanks again for joining us and please contact our Investor Relations team, if you have further questions.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Paige Magness, Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead ma'am.
Paige Magness:
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Howard Willard, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, our CFO to discuss Altria's 2019 first quarter business results and related matters. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results. We're also including slides to accompany our remarks. And all of this information is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor App. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2018. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S., Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both the reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Howard.
Howard Willard:
Thanks, Paige, and good morning everyone. After taking steps to position Altria for long-term success at the end of 2018, we entered 2019 with an evolved business platform that includes our strong core tobacco businesses and new strategic investments with tremendous potential for growth. We believe we've made significant progress in the first quarter on key initiatives to realize the potential of this evolved business platform. This morning I'll focus my remarks on some of the key drivers of our business performance, progress against priorities for our new investments and our perspective on the current regulatory environment. Altria's adjusted diluted EPS declined 5.3% in line with our guidance for a mid single-digit decline in the first quarter. We incurred a higher interest expense as a result of our recently-issued debt without the full benefit of savings from our cost reduction program, which began to ramp up at the end of the quarter. And in March we closed our investment in Cronos. Altria now owns a 45% equity interest in the company and we're excited to support of the talented Cronos team in pursuing its growth strategies. Let's now move to our core tobacco businesses and start with the dynamics affecting U.S. cigarette category volumes. We estimate that when adjusted for trade inventory movements and one fewer shipping day, cigarette industry volumes declined by approximately 5% in the first quarter. We believe first quarter cigarette industry volumes reflect both the secular decline including adult smoker movement between categories and e-vapor in particular and historic price elasticity. We also believe macroeconomic factors specifically gas prices affected cigarette volumes in the quarter. Gas prices increased by nearly 20% from the end of January through March. We believe rapid and significant increases in gas prices can cause adult smokers to reevaluate their short-term purchasing decisions and we believe this negatively impacted the decline rate in the quarter as we saw monthly sequential acceleration in volumes and volume declines over the three months of the quarter. We continue to closely monitor the category mindful that trends typically play out over a longer period. However, because gas prices did not become a tailwind as we thought they might earlier this year, we've revised our 2019 cigarette industry volume decline rate estimate to 4% to 5%. If we de-compose the cigarette industry volume performance for the most recent 12 months ending March 31, we estimate that volumes declined approximately 4.5%, reflecting an elevated secular decline rate due to increased movement by adult smokers to e-vapor. We've previously cited a secular decline rate within a 2% to 3% range. This range typically includes one percentage point of adult smoker movement to other tobacco products. And in total for this trailing 12-month period, we estimate adult consumer shifts to e-vapor accounted for the historic one percentage point component plus an additional 0.4. We believe macroeconomic factors specifically gas prices accounted for about 0.3 of a percentage point additional headwind on cigarette volumes. We also believe the price elasticity component of the decline rate remains consistent with our long-term estimate of negative 0.3. We continue to believe that cigarette volumes will decline at an average annual rate of 4% to 5% over the next five years. Moving now to our smokeable products segment cigarette volumes. Reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 14.3% in the first quarter, reflecting year-over-year trade inventory dynamics and one fewer shipping day. When adjusted for these factors, our cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 7%. Let me comment in a bit more detail on the first quarter trade inventory movements, which negatively impacted year-over-year reported volume comparisons by approximately 1.7 billion units or almost six percentage points. Over the course of the quarter, wholesalers depleted PM USA inventories by an estimated 400 million units compared to a build of 1.3 billion units in the year-ago quarter. And the trade ended the first quarter with significantly lower cigarette inventories than it did last year. While there can be volatility quarter-to-quarter, industry movements typically smooth out over time. Despite this volume performance, the smokeable segment's adjusted operating company's income was essentially unchanged from the prior year as PM USA continues to execute its strategy of maximizing profitability, while maintaining momentum on Marlboro over time. PM USA's efforts resulted in smokeable products segment net price realization of more than 8% and adjusted operating company's income margin expansion of more than three percentage points. We remain quite pleased with the performance of Marlboro, and its continued stabilization since the fourth quarter of 2017 following the disruptive California SET increase earlier that year. Investments in retail trade programs, product expansions like Marlboro Ice and brand equity like the Marlboro rewards program continued to show encouraging results with retail share up or down 0.1 sequentially over the past five quarters. While Marlboro retail share has remained stable over the last five quarters, L&M has ceded share to deep discount offerings, which negatively impacted PM USA's overall retail share. We continue to believe the growth of deep discount reflects the churn between branded discount and deep discount and not interactions with premium brands. We remain quite pleased with the role L&M has played in PM USA's portfolio over the past six years, growing share and increasing profitability without affecting Marlboro. In smokeless, USSTC is similarly focused on maximizing income, while maintaining momentum on Copenhagen over time. USSTC delivered strong adjusted operating company's income growth, despite slowing category volumes and one less shipping Monday during the quarter. Copenhagen the fastest-growing brand in four of the last five quarters grew its share by 0.7 share points to 35%. Additionally, in early February USSTC presented a compelling case supporting its MRTP filing for Copenhagen snuff to the FDA's Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee that communicating accurate and scientifically grounded information to adult smokers about the relative risks of smokeless tobacco is important for harm reduction. The committee overwhelmingly agreed that our modified risk claim is fully supported by scientific evidence and voted accordingly. We'll continue to engage with FDA on this application. We also remain very excited about the opportunity to market PMI's iQOS heat-not-burn product in the U.S. We are fully committed to this platform and have strong commercialization plans to support its launch. We're ready and continue to learn from the momentum of iQOS's success in overseas markets. As you are aware, it's been two years since PMI submitted the iQOS PMTA and recent comments from leadership at the Center for Tobacco Products suggested decision is forthcoming this year. We believe the science is compelling and supportive of a market authorization and we're ready and excited to help convert adult smokers to iQOS once that authorization is received. Turning now to e-vapor. In December, we announced that our investment in Juul would allow us to participate meaningfully in the e-vapor category and also to support and even accelerate adult smoker transition to non-combustible alternative products. Over the past few years as products in the market have improved led by Juul, we've seen a significant re-acceleration in the number of adult vapors in the category. Annual 12-month moving data shows, an increase in the number of adult vapors from 9 million in 2016 to 13 million in February 2019. And when looking at three-month data ended in February, there were more than 15 million adult vapors compared to the 12 million in the year earlier period. We believe this data reflects higher product satisfaction and conversion by adult smokers and is supportive of harm reduction potential of the category. In the first quarter, we estimate that e-vapor category volume grew by approximately 40% year-over-year across open and close systems and all trade classes. Juul reported to us that its shipment volume grew approximately 175% to over $175 million refill kit pods. And we estimate, Juul now represents more than 40% of the overall e-vapor category in the first quarter. Sequentially, the e-vapor category and Juul's growth slowed in light of Juul's unilateral decision to stop shipping non-traditional flavored pods to retail in November. As we've previously noted, we accept any short-term slowdown resulting from actions to address youth e-vapor use in an effort to preserve the long term e-vapor opportunity for adults. Internationally, Juul continues to see promising results and is making progress on its commercial expansion. Though still early days, let's update the two examples we first highlighted in our year-end call in January. In Canada, while distribution is limited Juul reports that retail takeaway at the end of February grew to more than 80% dollar share in stores selling their products from slightly more than 60% dollar share at the beginning of December. In the Sainsbury chain in the U.K., Juul tells us that it remains the number one e-vapor brand in the chain increasing its dollar share to more than 27% by the end of March from 23% in late January. Juul now operates in nine countries outside of the U.S. having most recently launched in Spain, with additional country launches expected by the end of 2019. By mid-March Juul products were available in over 8,500 stores throughout Switzerland, Germany, France and Italy. Juul also plans to test next-generation products in limited international markets this year including a Bluetooth-enabled device. This device will test a variety of features including access restrictions at the user level. On the HSR review process for the Juul transaction, we announced earlier this month that we received a request for additional information from the Federal Trade Commission related to the HSR notification we filed during the first quarter. We are cooperating with the FTC, and we'll work to provide answers to the outstanding questions promptly. We continue to believe that our investment in the services we have agreed to provide Juul will promote competition and have a long-term benefits for adult smokers. Turning to the FDA, with the arrival of the new interim FDA Commissioner, we are focused on continuing to work productively with the staff at the Center for Tobacco Products. We are committed to a shared belief in a continuum of risk for tobacco products and that adults who need or want nicotine should have access to nicotine through less harmful non-combustible products. As of February, on a 12-month moving basis, 13 million adults have already chosen to use e-vapor products, clearly suggesting that this vision can be realized. We know however, that the epidemic of youth e-vapor usage threatens the opportunity for harm reduction for adult smokers. That's why we are fully engaged along with Juul in thoughtful solutions in taking action. We believe the single most impactful step we can take today is to continue our advocacy for raising the minimum legal age to purchase all tobacco products to 21 at both the federal and state levels. In just a few short months, we're beginning to see the impact of the full force of our government affairs advocacy. Year-to-date, governors in six states have signed legislation to increase the legal age of purchase to 21, bringing the total number of states to 12. Two additional states have already passed legislation that awaits the governor's signature. With these additional bills approximately 38% of the U.S. population will be covered by a state-wide legal age of purchase at 21. 19 additional states are actively considering similar legislation and bipartisan legislation is being introduced at the federal level. This intensive effort has the endorsement of many in the public health sector and our full support. We expect the actions taken by Altria and Juul will take some time to result in a leveling off and ultimately reduction of the current youth usage trends, but we believe these actions are essential and that now is the time. In addition, during the first quarter, the FDA published draft guidance, proposing a potential revision to its compliance policy for both e-vapor products and cigars. For flavored e-vapor products, other than tobacco, mint and menthol, it would move the deadline for filing pre-market applications for these products from August 2022 to August 2021. It would also impose restrictions on sales of such tobacco products at in-person locations and online in order to reduce underage access. And it would take enforcement action against those that target underage users and/or promote underage use of e-vapor and similar tobacco products. We believe the draft guidance for e-vapor products is an important step toward addressing youth e-vapor use. For cigars, the draft guidance could result in the removal of all flavored cigars from the market 30 days after issuance of final guidance, except for grandfathered products and products that have received authorization from the FDA to remain on the market. This draft guidance raises several concerns in terms of process and the lack of science and evidence supporting the proposed policy. We will detail our concerns in our comments which will be available on altria.com. In summary, this is a dynamic time period in a changing tobacco category. Consumer preferences and regulatory actions are driving rapid change. We believe that our diverse income streams with our evolved platform of strong core tobacco businesses and investments in Juul, Cronos and AB InBev have positioned Altria best among our peers for long-term growth and leadership across a variety of future scenarios. Our 2019 plans are on track. We reaffirmed our guidance to deliver full year 2019 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.15 to $4.27. This range represents a growth rate of 4% to 7% from a 2018 adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.99. I'll now turn it over to Billy to provide more detail on our first quarter results.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks Howard and good morning everyone. Although our recent investments have been the subject of significant focus, our smokeable and smokeless tobacco businesses still delivered most of our earnings. Despite headwinds in the first quarter, these businesses are performing well and we expect them to deliver strong income growth into the future. Here are some highlights from the quarter. In the smokeable products segment, adjusted OCI was essentially flat at nearly $2 billion and adjusted OCI margins increased 3.6 percentage points to 53.3%. Adjusted OCI results were driven by lower cigarette volume, offset by higher pricing lower promotional investments and lower costs. Turning to Marlboro. The brand's retail share declined 0.2 percentage point year-over-year. However, it remains unchanged sequentially from its fourth quarter 2018 share. Several initiatives are helping Marlboro stay strong and relevant. First, PM USA introduced the reseal pack technology last year, representing our most significant cigarette packaging innovation since the flip-top box. The consumer response to the introduction was overwhelmingly positive and the brand continues to expand this innovation. PM USA is excited to announce plans to expand Marlboro Smooth Ice, a fresh crisp menthol cigarette in the resale pack nationally with distribution to over 110000 stores beginning this month. Similarly, Marlboro Rewards continues to exceed our expectations, bringing new adult smokers 21-plus to marlboro.com and increasing digital engagement. In only 2.5 months, more than 1.6 million adult smokers 21-plus, enrolled in the program and entered over 30 million pack codes. We've seen a nearly 140% increase in new registrants to marlboro.com in the first quarter. We are encouraged that Marlboro smokers are reinvesting their rewards points back into the brand as mobile coupons remain the number one redeemed item. In the super-premium tobacco and water segment, Nat Sherman continues to perform well following the regional expansion of Nat's across the Western U.S. in mid-2018. In the first quarter, Nat's represented a 0.3 of a share point of the cigarette category in states selling the product. Based on these strong results, Nat's is expanding nationally to the remaining 37 states this month. In the smokeless products segment, USSTC generated adjusted OCI growth of 7.9% in the first quarter as higher pricing and lower cost were partially offset by lower volumes. We continue to believe that the smokeless industry volume is being affected by adult tobacco consumer movement between tobacco categories and higher pricing. Copenhagen continues to be the growth engine behind the success of USSTC. In the first quarter, Copenhagen grew 0.7 retail share points to 35%. Next month, USSTC will open the Original Snuff Shop, a premium a flagship store in the heart of downtown Nashville. The store is designed to reinforce Copenhagen's leading equity among adult dippers and its 100% American craftsmanship positioning. Turning to our alcohol assets. In wine, Ste. Michelle's adjusted OCI decreased $2 million, primarily due to higher costs and higher promotional investments, partially offset by higher shipment volume. In beer, adjusted earnings from our equity investment in AB InBev were $200 million in the first quarter, which reflects Altria's share of AB InBev's fourth quarter results. And, of course, we continue to reward shareholders, through dividends and share repurchases. We remain fully committed to our dividend payout ratio target of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS. We repurchased 2.7 million shares in the first quarter at an average share price of $56.34 for a total cost of $151 million. This leaves $195 million remaining in the current $2 billion repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of the second quarter. We were also active in the credit markets in the quarter. We issued $16.3 billion in debt in the European and U.S. markets at a combined weighted average coupon of approximately 4.1%. We subsequently used these proceeds to repay the term loan we used to fund the Juul investment and to fund the Cronos investment. The balance will be used for other general corporate purposes, which may include future debt maturities. Finally, our cost reduction program remains on track to deliver approximately $575 million in annualized cost savings by the end of 2019. As a reminder, the program includes savings from workforce reductions, third-party spending reductions and closure of our Nu Mark operations. In the first quarter, savings were primarily driven by workforce reductions, most of which occurred at the end of February, as well as discontinuation of e-vapor operations. We continue to expect the remaining savings from this program to ramp up throughout the year and to achieve full run rate by year-end. I'd also like to provide color on reported earnings. Since we will be reporting Cronos-related financial instruments at fair value each quarter, there may be significant reported earnings volatility primarily driven by quarterly adjustments related to movement in Cronos' stock price. Any fair value adjustments is non-cash and will be reported as a special item. With that, we'll wrap up and Howard and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've posted our usual quarterly metrics which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. With that, I'll open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Howard Willard:
Before we do that operator, Paige has just reported out to me that I misspoke on one number that I'll correct now. I think I explained that by mid-March Juul products were available in a number of stores in Switzerland, Germany, France and Italy and that number of stores is 8,500 stores. So with that, operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Chris Growe:
Hi. Good morning.
Howard Willard:
Good morning, Chris.
Chris Growe:
I want to ask around the volume performance in the cigarette category this quarter. You talked about sequential weakness through the quarter, obviously gas prices being a main driver of that. Can you talk about where it ended the quarter? And do you see that continue into the second quarter? I'm just trying to get a sense of the performance you expect as we kind of move here in the interim in 2019.
Howard Willard:
Yes. I will comment on the second quarter performance, but it did step up a little bit in March. And ultimately the total quarterly performance was down 5%. But of course, we've taken all that into account, as we've looked at our estimate for the full year and we continue to believe full year decline is likely to be 4% to 5%.
Chris Growe:
And that 4% to 5% decline rate, is it category growth rate? Obviously, a lot of your market share weakness in the quarter occurred in the discount segment. Marlboro is performing well. Would what -- looking to persistent outperformance for L&M cause you to lose market share for the year? Is that part of your expectation for 2019?
Howard Willard:
I don't know that we're at all troubled by the discount performance in the first quarter. As we stated, there's been a trend for quite some time for some modest share churn between branded discount and the deep discount products. We are focused on programs within L&M to moderate that. But I don't feel like we – we feel like that puts our plans for the year at all at risk. And it is a continuation of a moderate trend. And I pointed out, I think in the past, that if you go back five years on an L&M it is still modestly ahead in its share and has had significant profit improvement. And so, I think, we're quite pleased there. And as you point out, our primary focus in the cigarette category is on Marlboro and I think that we're pleased with the performance of the Marlboro brand. We're pleased with the stability of the premium category. And I think that causes us to not be interested in getting too active in spending a lot of money in discount.
Chris Growe:
Okay. Thank you for that and just a quick follow-up if I could on menthol. You indicated that your market share was down a little bit in menthol in the quarter, which I found surprising, because you have a lot of new products there as well. Is that category more competitive? Or any unique that would have caused your market share performance to not be up in the quarter? And any color you have there would be helpful. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Chris. I think it's important to remember, over a shorter period things will fluctuate. There was nothing there from a competitive standpoint that would show that we have concern about. Of course, the tobacco category is always competitive. But if I put it in a band, I'd put it kind of at the midpoint of our band, and so nothing of concern.
Chris Growe:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman:
Good morning. Thanks for the question. I just wanted to follow-up on Chris's question on volumes in the quarter, and better understand why wholesalers are depleting inventory levels to this degree. You mentioned that this is something you expect to reverse throughout the year. But is this a reflection at all on their view of the health of the category? And how transitory is this dynamic?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. I think when you think about wholesale inventory, it's always important to put it over a long period of time. You'll see fluctuations in a short period, and what we refer to is that they tend to balance out over the longer period. I think when you think about wholesale inventory and trade inventories in total, you'll see the number of different reasons why the inventories fluctuate based on how they manage their inventories. Sometimes it's seasonality. Sometimes it's when their year-end occurs. And the other is around price increases. And so when you look at the price increase that took place our price increase this year, it took place earlier in the quarter than last year. And so you'll typically see that wholesale inventory tends to de-load after a price increase. Well, because it happened earlier this year, they were able to -- what we anticipated is that they were able to de-load their inventory all within the quarter where last year it lapped first and second quarter.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thank you. And also, I just wanted to hear a little bit more about your perspective on the leadership changes at the FDA. Do you believe that any of these changes impact the FDA's goals on menthol or nicotine reduction? Or it has impact timing for iQOS approval?
Howard Willard:
Sure. Yeah. I don't think we've gotten any indication that directly as a result of the leadership change that there is going to be significant change in the issues and the view of FDA on those issues. I think that the nicotine issue and the menthol issue, I think from my expectation, are expected to be resolved and with us for quite some time period of years. And so I think we're in early days on that, and I wouldn't expect this change is going to have a big change there. I would be surprised given where we are in the iQOS application process, which is I think we're near the end, if there were any changes that occurred there. And then, I think that this is favorable in my view. I think there's been pretty clear communication that under the new acting FDA Commissioner, there's going to be a focus driving down youth use of e-vapor products, and I think that's a positive.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thanks. And sorry, last question. Have you started to offer any of the services to Juul as part of your services agreement? And can you elaborate at all on the nature of the questions related to the antitrust review?
Howard Willard:
Sure. With regard to the services that we provide Juul, we are in the early stages of that, although we did provide some in the first quarter. I think you'll see that pick up pace more in the second and third quarter of this year. Probably the service that is most highly visible that we offered in the first quarter, we had established innovative tobacco products space in a number of retailers across the country that we were going to use for our MarkTen e-vapor products. Typically that is space that is visible by the consumer. Oftentimes it includes the header position. And we transferred that space that we were going to use for MarkTen over to Juul. And already in March, there were thousands of stores that were converting that space to the Juul product, and I would expect that will continue into the second quarter. With regard to questions around HSR, I don't know that -- there's any specific questions that I would call out. I just think that as is typical in these cases, we address the number of questions in the first round. They had some follow-up questions, and that just means that we end up in a longer period of time for them to make their decision. As I indicated in the remarks, we continue to be confident about its ultimate approval.
Pamela Kaufman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Jaffray.
Michael Lavery:
Good morning. Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Hi, Michael.
Michael Lavery:
As you expand the Smooth Ice and Nat's nationally, can you give us a sense of what those are replacing on the back bar? And with Juul you just touched on the MarkTen swap out obviously, but are there any cases where that may replace anything other than MarkTen's space?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. From a standpoint in the first in Marlboro, Smooth Ice and Nat's, they really aren't replacing anything on the back-bar. We have a great sales force that knows what's relevant to the consumers in their area, and so they really work with the retailers in our display space to display those brands that those consumers are interested in. As far as the innovative space, it's really limited to the removal of our brands in the marketplace in e-vapor and the replacement of that by Juul in those stores where they bought that space from us.
Michael Lavery:
Okay. Thank you. And a little bit related, how much have you seen if any the momentum in vapor have an impact on trade inventories? Now, especially with your relationship with Juul, do you have some better visibility on their sort of situation in the store, and how that may or may not be influencing retail trade inventories?
Billy Gifford:
I think when you think about it Michael, across inventories, they really do look at it through time and think about the various categories individually. I think we have seen a benefit to out of stocks on Juul product with some of our services we provided. So I would say better inventory practices in the e-vapor space related to Juul, but no material impact from the other categories.
Michael Lavery:
Okay, thank you. And then just one more. We saw the Canopy acreage deal, obviously, recently and your stake with Cronos is significant and could flip above 50% with the warrants. Do you work with them on strategic evaluation of opportunities in the U.S.? And is the acreage playbook one that you might see replicated from with them as a partner?
Howard Willard:
Sure. As you know we recently closed the deal with Cronos. And through our board representation, we are significantly exposed to their ideas and obviously provide them with ideas on how to further grow their business in the future. And I think you are right to point out the fact that the cannabis space is quite lively these days with a variety of companies that are making strategic moves. And we've, obviously, been thinking quite proactively on our own and are now thinking with Cronos, which strategic moves make sense over the next year. I don't have anything to talk about today but our intention in making the investment into Cronos and capitalizing them quite competitively versus the other cannabis companies in this space was really designed to enable them to make the moves that are necessary to build out our leadership position. And I imagine over the next year or two we'll have more to say about that.
Michael Lavery:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Jefferies.
Owen Bennett:
Good morning, guys. And just a couple of related questions on Juul and the services you're providing there, so whether it be the shelf space or as you understand what you were saying previously about advertising the Juul inside your Marlboro packs. I'm just wondering firstly, could you talk about the dynamics you're seeing between Marlboro and Juul now? And have you seen any increase rate of switching? And then secondly if IQOS get approved and how would you make the decision between switching Marlboro smokers to IQOS or switching them over to Juul? Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think we have not detected any specific impact of Juul on Marlboro. I would say that Juul's growth continues to be more broadly from the cigarette category generally and we haven't seen any specific impact on our brands. And then I would say that with regard to IQOS versus Juul, I think we ultimately believe that the consumer is going to decide, which product most appeals to them. It would not surprise me if some consumers actually engage in trial of both products and then ultimately make a choice between the two or whether or not they want to stay within the cigarette category. And I think our real focus in providing assistance to Juul and also in representing the IQOS brand once it's approved by FDA is to make sure that consumers are aware of the products and the product benefits that the products are distributed in stores where adult cigarette consumer shop, they're aware of the brand that it's in stock to make up promotional offers on it. And then I think ultimately the consumers are going to make their product choice.
Owen Bennett:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right, thank you. Good morning.
Howard Willard:
Hi, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog:
Hi. I guess, my first question is more of a big picture one. I guess, I want to ask can your model work. Meaning can you guys still hit your EPS guidance in the context of an environment where cig volumes are decelerating faster. Just really want to hear from you what gives you the confidence in this. I'm thinking about this in the context that the key headwinds such that you do own a stake in Juul, but you aren't yet seeing a benefit of that and you might not until next year. Pricing is going up to offset the greater volume pressure, but is this pricing really sticking? And then finally cig volumes realistically could decline more rapidly. So I guess in the context of all of that, is it realistic to assume that you're going to be able to deliver on your EPS guidance? And then more importantly your long-term algorithm? Thanks.
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think to start off; we continue to strongly believe that we can deliver on our EPS guidance this year of 4% to 7% EPS growth. And we continue to be confident about our ability to deliver over the long-term against our 7% to 9% adjusted EPS growth. And I think we communicated on the call here, our expectation for the range of industry cigarette volume declines. I think you're asking a hypothetical question, which is related to well if it turns out that there are conditions in the marketplace because our estimate for category declines to be lower than actually occurs, do we feel -- still feel confident in our 7% to 9% EPS growth. And I have to say that while we continue to believe that our estimate is our best view on what the next five years will bring, if there is further movement around in the category that drives cigarettes' volume declined higher, I'd still have confidence that we can deliver against our 7% to 9% EPS growth over the long-term. You are right to point out that in this year; we don't have an income stream of any significance coming from Juul. But given the growth we expect in the e-vapor category and the growth we expect from Juul this year, I would expect that by next year and the year after if in fact there is any acceleration in the cigarette category decline rates that we will have an income offset to any impact that would have on us related to income coming from Juul. That was part of the logic of the investments, because while we think we have a pretty good handle on what's going to happen over the next five years, if there was any variation in that we felt strongly that we wanted to have a position in the leading fast growing and in the near future highly profitable e-vapor player in the U.S. And I have to tell you, I also believe that we have a very resilient profit generator in the cigarette and smokeless businesses that we have and we have a number of additional levers to pull to help drive EPS growth. So we continue to be – frankly, we continue to believe that the year -- the next five years is unfolding much the way we expected when we put together our analysis three or four months ago. And if there were changes in the future, we feel like our platform gives us a number of options to continue to deliver both our 7% to 9% long-term EPS growth and the 80% of that cash back for the shareholders in the form of dividends.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. That's really helpful, Howard. I appreciate the color on that. And I do want to just clarify something about the Juul closing and when you could see the equity income falling through the P&L? Just to be clear, I mean, is there any potential that that could happen this calendar year? Or is it really going to be a 2020 event?
Billy Gifford:
So Bonnie, the equity income would really be triggered by HSR approval.
Bonnie Herzog:
Right.
Billy Gifford:
That is when our shares move from economic or nonvoting to voting. And remember, we talked about with the Juul, we would be a one quarter lag similar to the way we are with AB InBev. So taking that into consideration it'll depend on when HSR approval comes through.
Bonnie Herzog:
Understood. But then that's what I was curious about is there any update on the timing of when that is expected?
Howard Willard:
Yes. I think it's hard to predict how long this HSR process might take. And I think that given that it's going to be some time that we'll be interacting with them to answer your questions and given the fact that we're going to be on a one-quarter lag. I think there's a question is to whether that would start to flow this year or whether it's likely to flow in early next year.
Bonnie Herzog:
Got it.
Howard Willard:
But we'll certainly keep you up-to-date on our discussions with the FTC.
Bonnie Herzog:
And then just to be clear so your guidance assumes none of that flows in this year?
Howard Willard:
Yes. That was our original assumptions and we communicated that at the beginning of the year that our guidance for this year really didn't include any material income contribution from either Cronos or Juul.
Bonnie Herzog:
Right.
Howard Willard:
And that was the assumption in our guidance and of course it turns out that -- because of the regulatory action that's highly likely to be the outcome.
Bonnie Herzog :
Okay. Then maybe one final question from me if I may just on your margins. Your smokeable margins expanded really sharply in the quarter. So hoping you could just drill down a little bit further on some of the key buckets because I think this does highlight some of the levers you have to pull. I mean, I guess, I'm assuming the earlier and larger-than-expected price increase was probably one of the key drivers there and you already touched on some of the severance agreement payments which I think also could be a nice boost to margins. But are there any other considerations? And maybe thinking about that as the year progresses, especially, as you realize more of the cost savings that you've highlighted? Thanks.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I think you touched on it the two most important especially on the short-term period like a quarter. But certainly as we progress through the year and the cost reductions ramp-up the savings associated with those certainly cost will be a factor as well.
Bonnie Herzog :
Okay. Thank you.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Thank you, Bonnie.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.
Vivien Azer:
Thank you. Good morning.
Howard Willard:
Hi, Vivien.
Vivien Azer:
So I wanted to double back on that -- your industry volume expectations, please. Very helpful disclosure on slide 6 as you unpack the drivers. I'm looking specifically at the additional cost category movement and the evolution of that drag because 40 basis points in 2018 but 50 basis points on a trailing 12-month basis which would if my math is right imply that the -- like the one -- the first quarter drag was actually much more meaningful 70 basis points to 80 basis points am I thinking about that math right?
Billy Gifford:
I think you are but I wouldn't go to a short-term period Vivien. You remember as were progressing through 2018 e-vapor was ramping-up throughout the year. And so whenever you take off the -- in a trailing 12-month, whenever you take off the first three months of course the all of those months that it's increasing through carry a heavier weight. But I think the logic you're applying to it is correct.
Vivien Azer:
So that's fair Billy. But with that in mind then given that that more meaningful impact coincided with an actual sequential softening in Juul's results given the elimination of not just this brick-and-mortar retail. But how are you guys thinking about that for the full year? Because to my mind it does call into question a little bit the achievability of even the minus 4 for the category?
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I tried to follow exactly what you were saying there Vivien. I think when you think about it this trailing 12-month is really just designed to kind of say look we did a long period of data to be able to break it down to these specific buckets. Then when you take out those first three months, which would have been the first quarter of the previous year when volume is ramping through the year as we talked about previously the 15% to 20% e-vapor growth across that 5-year period on the CAGR of course it's going to grow faster in the earlier period because the base is strong. So just math would say that it's -- from a CAGR standpoint it'll slow down in the later years just because the base is growing. We feel like with the 4% to 5% it's important to remember you've got to look over in the long period. I think sometimes we tend to get wrapped up in the quarter. So just for instance last year right, first quarter cigarette industry volume is down 5.5% and we ended the year at 4.5%. So sometimes we take a quarter and try to project it out as if that's the exact way that whole year is going to play out versus allowing time to pass.
Vivien Azer:
Okay. That's fair. So then can you articulate what is embedded in the 4% to 5% outlook for the full year? Is it a 50 basis point drag from cross category movement? Or is it worse than that?
Billy Gifford:
Remember Vivien, when we put out a range, it's going -- each one of these is going to have a magnitude of range around it. And so we are trying to provide and be as transparent as we can in the 4% to 5%. I hate to start now saying, let's take the pieces and give the guidance on the pieces, I'd rather stick to the 4% to 5%. But know that each of these pieces have a range around them that are incorporated in the total 4% to 5% that we're providing.
Vivien Azer:
Okay. That's fair. Thank you very much.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks Vivien.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.
Steve Powers:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Howard Willard:
Good morning Steve.
Steve Powers:
Hey. So I guess pick up on some of the prior questions related to the FDA and the FTC. Obviously, there were some public concerns put forth by the FDA and the FDA Commissioner following the announcement of your transaction with Juul, could you expand at all on how your more recent conversations with the FDA have gone with respect to Juul? And then do those discussions have any impact at all on how the FTC may be reviewing your filing for HSR approval?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think based on our dialogue with our advisers, I think the FTC tends to make a decision based on its own analysis and apply it against the rules that its focus is on discharging. So I don't find that there's a whole lot of influence from one agency to the other. And I think ultimately, we're going to answer the questions for the FTC, and we expect them to act based on the rules that they normally use. With regard to our dialogue with FDA, I would say that most of the dialogue we've had with FDA, and most of the interaction with FDA around Juul really starting in October has really been focused on FDA is concerned about youth usage of e-vapor products, and their encouragement of us in Juul to take actions that might help reduce youth usage of e-vapor products. And I have to tell you that, we feel like we've taken significant actions, and frankly that Juul and I have been on the leading edge of really proactively addressing that issue. In the case of Juul, they removed their flavored products for mainstream retail outlets and you saw some impact, I think of that action in the first quarter because there was a sequential slowdown in growth overall of the category. And I think that that is going to take I think some of the pressure off on youth usage of the products just because the category slowdown is likely to have an impact there. And I think in the short run, it is prudent to take steps even though they may impact adult cigarette smokers, if that can really help have a positive impact on driving down youth rates. And then we also talked about what I think has been quite a gratifying pick-up in the pace moving the minimum age to purchase to 21. When we first had a dialogue with the FDA in October of last year, we expressed to them that we were committed to raising the minimum age to purchase to 21 at the Federal level. We continue to always believe that Federal activity on something like that makes it easier for retailers to manage that enforce that. But following further communication from the FDA, we concluded that doing at it both the Federal and State level was going to get quicker action. And that was accurate, we've already had a number of bills passed. And then I'm also pleased to see that not only is it moving in a number of States, but it's now moving at the Federal level. So I have to tell you, I'm quite gratified that we could see significantly more action, and significantly more population centers in the U.S. towards raising that age to 21. And we think that's probably the most important thing combined with effective enforcement to drive down youth usage of e-vapor products and really all tobacco products.
Steve Powers:
Great. Thank you. And then secondly, I wanted to pick up on smokeless if I could. At least versus our expectations that the price and the margin realization in that business this quarter was frankly exceptional. So, anything to call out there versus your own internal expectations? And then related, I guess, any update on how you're seeing that industry segment evolve in terms of its interplay with e-vapor? Thanks so much.
Billy Gifford:
Yes. I can't think of anything that I would call out. I would agree with you it's certainly an exceptional quarter for the -- that segment, and then specifically our business. I think we tried to highlight in the remarks that Copenhagen is the growth engine there. The dippers really like Copenhagen and they want to engage with that brand, and we're doing everything to reinforce that with them.
Howard Willard:
Yes. I might point out that while it's certainly a good first quarter for smokeless, the profit growth is quite similar to the full year performance last year. And so I think that that's a business that they will be able to generate the kind of profit growth on a pretty regular basis. I think with regard to interaction between smokeless and e-vapor, I think the relationship is a little bit complicated and that you will recall five years or six years ago, you had an e-vapor category that was not growing much at all, and you had a smokeless category that was growing in volume terms 5% a year. I think that was really driven by the fact that at that time smokeless was the primary place at that a lot of cigarette smokers were moving when looking to an alternative to cigarettes. I think the step-down in the growth in the smokeless category is not so much driven by smokeless consumers switching to e-vapor, it's driven by the fact that a lot of the cigarette smokers that were switching to smokeless and driving its growth have stopped switching to smokeless. And they're more attracted to e-vapor. And that is resulted in the last two or three years of a category that's more flat to slightly down. And at least until we see some change in cigarette smoker interest in e-vapor, I think we think this is probably a range the smokeless category will be in. Although, it's -- you're right to point out the fact that even with that kind of volume performance, it has high profit growth.
Steve Powers:
All right. Great. Thanks again, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Gaurav Jain of Barclays.
Gaurav Jain:
Hi. Good morning. Thank you. So, there's a lot of investor interest in the modern oral category. The nicotine pouch without tobacco category and here ZIN [ph] has gained a lot of share and is expanding nationally, BAT is also planning its own launch. How are you planning to pursue this opportunity?
Howard Willard:
Sure. You are right to point that out. While the modern oral category is small in the U.S. today, it has certainly generated a lot of interests and I know there is further product expansion that is planned. While we are the leader in the smokeless tobacco category, we do not currently have a product in the market that participates in that modern oral. But the potential there is not lost on us. And that's an area that we've got some work underway. I don't have anything to share with you today, but I do think if you think over the next five or 10 years that could be an interesting sector.
Gaurav Jain:
Again, concerning you cannot introduce new products, because of Deeming Regulations, how exactly will you go about pursuing that opportunity?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I'm not going to comment further on that.
Gaurav Jain:
Okay. Sure. So my next question is on cigars. Sir, can you just share what percentage of your cigar business would be impacted by the proposed flavor cigar ban if it were to go ahead? Was some part of your portfolio grandfathered? And on some others you have applications and your marketing orders as well. So any estimate of what part of your portfolio might be impacted?
Billy Gifford:
Yeah. I don't have a specific answer for you as far as a percentage. I think if you think about a lot of our products similar to -- the way we treated cigarettes and smokeless a significant amount of our SKU is currently in the marketplace are not grandfathered. Meaning, we had made changes however, they are considered more of the transitional products. So we're evaluating that bases on the proposed rules and you can certainly see all the remarks we made related to the current proposed rule. And so we'll have to see how -- if the FDA moves forward and how they move forward and any changes to the rule. And then we'll have a more specific percentage for you.
Gaurav Jain:
Okay. And then …
Howard Willard:
I think for clarity from FDA on exactly which cigars would be impacted by the action they've propose in the preliminary rule. And I expect that based on the high volume of comments they're going to get they'll provide that greater clarity as they think about moving on to the final rule.
Gaurav Jain:
Sure. Thank you. And my last question is on Juul and iQOS. So there's a theory that Juul works in high nicotine markets like the U.S. and iQOS works in low nicotine markets like Japan. Now you have interest in both these products and you are going to invest capital behind iQOS. So how do you view this theory?
Howard Willard:
I would not subscribe to the theory that Juul is a better fit for some markets and that iQOS is a better fit for others. I have to tell you that we believe that both Juul and iQOS can generate quite nice consumer interest here in the U.S. And I also believe that the iQOS product is quite satisfying on both the nicotine and the taste basis for a large number of consumers that smoke traditional U.S. cigarettes. I think that the difference between a consumer picking a Juul or an iQOS is more likely to be related to other factors that differentiate the products whether it's the form factor whether it's the taste. And I think ultimately there's room for both products to be quite successful here in the U.S.
Gaurav Jain:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC.
Nik Modi:
Yeah. Good morning, everyone. So just a question on price realization. Billy, Howard, maybe if you can give some context. I mean, it's been a lot higher over the last few quarters than I think has been normally the case. And so I guess there's kind of two pieces to this. One is, should we be thinking about price realization being a bigger part of the contributor to the algorithm going forward? Or is it that the loyalty rewards program that you guys are launching nationally is helping you kind of become more efficient with your promotional spend? Any clarity you can give on that will be helpful.
Howard Willard:
Sure. You are right that if you go back over the last five years, price realization has typically been between 4% and 6%. And I wouldn't draw any conclusion for the year based on the first quarter, but certainly last year it was on the higher end and above that range. I think that part of the way I might explain that is I don't know that we have not we don't have a specific target in any given year on price realization, but we are guided by the fact that we're trying to maximize profitability in our cigarette business. And beyond list price in a favorable economic environment with much better tools for tuning the effectiveness of our promotions, I think we are getting better and better every year at how to effectively spend our promotional dollars to effectively get into the consumers that need it. And frankly to trim it with consumers that don't. And we're getting more precise at doing that on a per packing basis at below the state level and certainly on a one-to-one basis. So you have not only list prices, but you have promotional efficiency. And then, of course, you're also pointing out that with a program like Marlboro Rewards where we're strengthening the equity and maybe without using price as a tool increasing consumer loyalty, I think that gives us more flexibility on driving profitability across the brand. So, I would say that the tools we have to manage the profitability of that brand have gotten much more sophisticated over the last three or four years.
Sunil Modi:
Great. And then I guess one final question from me is can you recount how volumes kind of behaved or moved when you had several retailers kind of exit the cigarette category right? Because we're having similar situations occur across certain retailers right now. And so maybe you could just give us kind of a case study on what happened I think when CBS exited the cigarette or tobacco category a couple of years ago?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I can certainly do that. What we found was that there was really no disruption in product availability for consumers. And I think it's really driven by the fact that most tobacco consumers already have a number of places that they shop where they can purchase their tobacco products and if they have a primary place that ultimately stops providing those tobacco products, they very easily shift to either another store they're ready going to or to a store down the street or around the corner. And what we found in the last phase was that -- and I know it's the same in this period, it is not like the availability of tobacco products is such that if you have a chain that pulls out, somebody's got to drive a great distance, the availability is quite significant and people just adjust. I will say the benefit is that you may be aware that convenience stores have been going there share of tobacco sales quite nicely up until a couple of years ago when some of that growth in the convenience store trade slowed down a bit I think partially through the advent of dollar stores. And frankly as some trade classes and some retailers have pulled out, it's actually brought a bit of a return to growing share to the retailers that are committed to the category and I know that it's a benefit for them.
Sunil Modi:
Great. Thanks Howard.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Howard Willard:
Hi Judy.
Judy Hong:
Hi, good morning. So, I guess I wanted to go back to the industry volume questions Howard. And I guess I'm just trying to kind of reconcile a couple of things. One is on one hand you are pretty comfortable with the long-term consumption declines staying within this 4% to 5%? On the other hand you did tick this year down albeit a little bit after one quarter. So, do you think there's just a lot of volatility and just existing -- just industry volume decline now with a lot of e-vapor issue and as the pricing strategy does maybe evolving? And if that's the case I mean how do you sort of get comfortable with that 4% to 5% long-term decline forecast for the industry?
Howard Willard:
Sure. Based on the data we have available to us today, we're comfortable with our 4% to 5% forecast for this year and over the next five years. But you are right to point out that there are a number of other variables that are influencing the decline rate in the cigarette category today compared to three or four years ago. And frankly that is why we took the step at the end of last year in providing you with both guidance and more detail on how we get to that guidance for the decline rate because it is a -- I believe it's going to be a noisier environment for measuring that. And I think our commitment to our investors is that as we get new information we will apply that to our forecast methodology and to the approaches that we've used to forecast and if there's any adjustments we will make them. I will raise one that I don't think causes us to -- need to make an adjustment over the long-term decline rate forecast we made of 4% to 5%. But that if we get more experience with it and if we continue to make progress, it could be something we'll be discussing probably next year which is the impact of the increased age to purchase to 21. And as I hopefully will we end up with the federal statute that essentially raises it nationwide, there is 2% of cigarette volume today that is in that legal age to 20 segment. I don't think there's evidence yet that we're going to get to a uniform national standard that ought to be factored in. But if we make progress on that, I do imagine we'll be talking about what impact that might have. And we don't have a lot of experience with that. I don't think that it's going to suddenly just happen in one quarter, but it could be an influence over two years or three years. And I think as we learn about that, we would obviously make any adjustments. I have to tell you that 4% to 5% decline over a period of five years gives us a lot of opportunity to absorb that. But it is clearly a time when there are more variables that we're moving around a bit more.
Judy Hong:
Yes, Got it. Appreciate that. My last question is on Juul performance. So, sequentially obviously some full interest given the flavor restrictions can you just put that performance in the context of what you expect it to be put the restriction took place? Do you think this is a bit of just a temporary situation? And do you or Juul have any kind of a forecast for how this plays out for the full year 2019 just from a Juul's line growth perspective?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I don't think that the results we got in the first quarter were much of a surprise to us. I think that the withdrawal of flavors I think we knew was going to have an impact. And frankly I think that we do think that it's likely to have some help on driving down youth vaping, so I think we thought that impact was worth it. Frankly, I wasn't surprised by the results. And I was quite -- I think I was quite pleased by the fact that the Juul in the first quarter even though the category growth slowed down that it helped share. And I think it's performing quite nicely.
Judy Hong:
Got it, okay. Thank you.
Howard Willard:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam Spielman:
Thank you. Good morning.
Howard Willard:
Hi Adam.
Adam Spielman:
Hi. So several of my other questions have been asked already and I think you've already just mentioned just to clarify something I think you said rather at the end of Judy's question of succession but that -- in the first quarter, on slide 18, you've got Juul growing sequentially 3%. And I think you said it helps to drive so it implies the whole e-vapor category was growing only about 3% in Q1 is that correct?
Howard Willard:
Yeah. I think you're referring to our chart right?
Adam Spielman:
Yes. And what I'm really trying to guess that is, you've given us a sequential growth for Juul and I thank you for that. But if you look to the category and when I say category of e-vapor overall, would it show the same pattern roughly? Or how we thought about?
Howard Willard:
I mean, I think the -- if you're referring to chart 18, where we show you from …
Adam Spielman:
Yeah.
Howard Willard:
…first quarter of 2018 to first quarter of 2019. And we've got the volume for the overall e-vapor category we colored in Juul's performance.
Adam Spielman:
Yeah.
Howard Willard:
But the sequential quarterly growth numbers are actually for the total e-vapor category. And so...
Adam Spielman:
Oh! I misunderstood that. Of course I thought that…
Howard Willard:
Yeah. The category overall on a year-over-year basis has had quite nice growth. But it has slowed down. You'll notice the slowdown really started in the fourth quarter which is when flavors were first withdrawn. And then, it slowed down even more in the first quarter. And we don't -- we didn't provide a specific number on Juul. But as you can see from the chart Juul continued to perform quite nicely and really represented on a year-over-year basis the growth of the category.
Adam Spielman:
And just to be clear the 0.44 refers to the whole category not just to Juul?
Howard Willard:
That's right.
Adam Spielman:
Okay. So I misunderstood it. Okay, thank you. That's very clear. And I may have missed this, but am I right, because under the service agreement you -- Juul will be able to access your database -- or markets somehow through your database and put inserts and onserts into your packs. But do you have any sense of when that's going to begin, because my impression is it hasn't yet?
Howard Willard:
Yes. We -- So I think the way I would phrase it is that Juul like the other operating companies at Altria can access -- or can provide offers to customers that are on the adult tobacco consumer database. The actual planning of those offers and the sequencing of them across our companies including Juul and the execution of them comes through Altria personnel that are in our marketing services organization. But you are right, that that marketing services organization has added Juul to the roster of companies that can procure those services from them. And it is both direct-mail communication and it's also onserts. You are also right, that there's been relatively light activity in the first quarter and I would expect to see more activity in quarters two, three and four and that will be both direct-mail drops and inserts in the product. And of course we always manage, particularly with regard to the database we always manage the sequencing and the amount of mail that we send to consumers on the database. So Juul will be sequenced and with offers from our other tobacco brands.
Adam Spielman:
That's really very helpful. And just one final question, can you actually -- did Juul tell you what that their plans and expectations are for the -- going forward? Or is it simply they report to you what they've done after the quarter ends?
Howard Willard:
Yeah. I would say, through our Board observer, our Board observer has access to the communications that they share with the Board members. And then, at quarter end, our Investor Relations group as a relationship with Juul where they discuss Juul's performance for the quarter and they discuss what information we will share. So we do not have a kind of a real-time sharing relationship. That is driven by the fact that we haven't got an HSR approval and it probably wouldn't be appropriate.
Adam Spielman:
Yeah. So that's very clear. So the follow-up question to that is, is it right to believe that the Juul's board expects, Juul volumes to accelerate in the rest of 2019?
Howard Willard:
Yeah. I don't know that I would comment on that.
Adam Spielman:
Fair enough. Okay, that is the forecast. Thank you. That's all. Okay, thank you very much. That's really very helpful.
Howard Willard:
Thanks Adam.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Paige Magness for closing comments.
Paige Magness:
Thank you all for joining our call this morning. And if you have any follow-up questions, please call us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2018 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's Management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to turn the call over to Ms. Paige Magness, Vice President of Communications for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Paige Magness:
Good morning. Thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Howard Willard, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, our CFO; to discuss the Altria's 2018 business results and provide a deeper dive on the Juul opportunity and Cronos. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2017. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports it's financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both, the reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release. With that, I'll turn the call to Howard.
Howard Willard:
Thanks, Paige, and good morning everyone. This morning I'll focus on addressing key questions we've been getting, including our outlook for cigarette volumes, our strategic investments in Juul and Cronos, and the current regulatory environment. I'll also review our guidance for 2019. Billy will then briefly highlight our 2018 performance. We've included some slides to accompany some of my remarks. Altria closed out 2018 with excellent full year adjusted diluted EPS growth of 17.7%, and we continued to reward shareholders by returning $5.4 billion in cash through dividends. PM USA stabilized Marlboro and strengthened our combustible business. We also took proactive steps that we believe uniquely position us for long-term success. Altria enters 2019 with an evolved business platform that includes our strong core tobacco businesses and new strategic investments with tremendous potential for growth. First, our operating companies continue to give us the industry leading portfolio in the U.S. through Marlboro, Black & Mild, Copenhagen, and hopefully soon IQOS. But now beyond these brands our investments in Juul, as well as Cronos, once closed, giving us exposure to new growth opportunities while also further diversifying our future income streams. The decision to pursue these investments stems from a desire to enhance Altria's long-term earnings and dividend growth, while also making progress on our harm reduction aspiration to help adult consumers switch from combustible cigarettes to non-combustible alternatives. We believe that Juul and Cronos present unique opportunities to meaningfully participate in fast-growing adjacent categories. Before offering additional detail on the investments themselves, let's discuss the dynamics affecting U.S. cigarette category volumes and our outlook. The U.S. cigarette category is large and resilient, and has absorbed many shocks overtime. And despite significant e-vapor acceleration in 2018, the U.S. cigarette category volume decline rate accelerated only modestly from the recent long-term decline rate of 3% to 4%. Let's look at the last two years for some context. In 2017, we estimated that U.S. cigarette industry volume declined by 4% which reflects the impact of a disruptive $2 per pack California state excise tax increase in the second quarter, and initial signs of the e-vapor category returning to growth during the second half of the year. In 2018 record growth in record growth in e-vapor of approximately 35% and higher gas prices accelerated U.S. cigarette industry volume declines outside the 3% to 4% range to a decline of 4.5%. Given the significant interest in cigarette category fundamentals, let me provide perspective on the specific drivers of the decline rate and our outlook for 2019. We previously cited a secular decline rate within a 2% to 3% range. This rate includes smokers who reduced their consumption, those who stopped using tobacco products, and smokers moving to other tobacco categories. In 2018 we estimate that the secular decline rate was elevated due to increased movement by adult smokers across categories which historically accounted for about one percentage point of the 2% to 3% secular rate. This acceleration is largely attributable to e-vapor category growth, especially in light of the decline in the smokeless category in 2018. In total, in 2018, we believe e-vapor represented the vast majority of the one percentage point component plus an additional three tens. Of course, other factors also affect the decline rate. In 2018 we believe macroeconomic factors, specifically gas prices, accounted for about half percentage point additional headwind on cigarette volumes. We believe the price elasticity component of the decline rate remains consistent with our long-term estimate of negative 0.3. Looking forward, we'll continue to closely monitor the various factors at play. We watch, for example, excise taxes at both, the federal and state level, gas prices, economic conditions affecting the adult tobacco consumer like housing starks [ph], unemployment rates, and consumer confidence in the regulatory environment. We also know that over half of adult smokers are looking for alternatives. With the recent e-vapor growth, almost entirely driven by Juul in 2018, and more alternative tobacco products available in the marketplace, we expect the 2019 U.S. cigarette industry volume decline rate to be in a range of 3.5% to 5%. This range -- this wider range covers a potential for higher levels of adult smoker trial log [ph] in conversion to non-combustible products, similar to 2018. For 2019 through 2023, our estimate for average annual U.S. cigarette industry volume declines is 4% to 5%. Let's now move to our recently announced strategic investments starting with Juul. Through Juul, we have found a unique opportunity to not only participate meaningfully in the e-vapor category, but to also support and even accelerate transition to non-combustible alternative products by adult smokers. The Juul investment provides Altria with a significant stake in the largest and fastest growing e-vapor company with a highly-talented management team, successful end market products, a strong innovation pipeline, and significant international opportunity. When you add the Juul's already substantial capabilities, our underage tobacco prevention expertise and ability to directly connect with adult smokers, we see a compelling future with long-term benefits for both, adult tobacco consumers and our shareholders. We are excited about Juul's domestic growth and international prospects and their potential impact on our investment. Juul's 2018 growth was quite remarkable. Juul had net revenues in excess of $1 billion in 2018, up from approximately $200 million in 2017. Juul overwhelmingly reaccelerated the U.S. e-vapor category growth rate growing Juul's volume by nearly 600% to over $450 million, refill kit pods. We estimate Juul represents over 30% of the overall e-vapor category across open and closed systems, and all-trade classes. After e-vapor growth plateaued from 2015 to 2017, rapid growth was reignited in 2018. And we expect U.S. e-vapor volume to grow at a compounded annual rate of 15% to 20% through 2023. As a reminder, Altria share of Juul's international e-vapor income would be 100% incremental to Altria. We believe the global e-vapor and heat-not-burned segments with estimated sales of roughly $23 billion in 2018 have substantial room to grow. Juul currently operates in eight countries with plans for additional expansion this year. We expect the Juul product features that have driven Juul's success in switching adult smokers in the U.S. to strongly appeal to international adult cigarette smokers. And Juul has designed products [ph] in international markets to meet applicable regulatory requirements and also has significant new innovations in its pipeline. Though still early days, some information from recent launch markets shows rapid growth and helps affirm our assumptions that Juul's product development and commercialization capabilities can solve for different regulatory restrictions and adult consumer preferences. Let's look at two examples. First, in Canada, where distribution is limited, Juul reports that retail takeaway grew to more than 60% dollar share in stores selling their products after only three months at retail. Juul is also seeing encouraging performance where they have achieved distribution in Europe. For example, in the Sainsbury Chain in the UK, Juul tells us that it recently became the number one e-vapor brand in the chain with a dollar share in excess of 23% in less than 12 weeks after launch. And just to remind you, the UK operates under the tobacco products directive adopted by many EU countries, which limits the nicotine concentration level. Ultimately, we expect the international revenue and income opportunity to end up being as large as or larger than the U.S. opportunity. Our 35% investment was based on a deep strategic operational and financial analysis of Juul in the marketplace. Clearly, we look at this opportunity over the long term, but for context, let us provide a view of five years out. Some of our independently developed key assumptions over the next five years that informed that analysis include a U.S. e-vapor category with a gross volume between 15% to 20% annually. Juul continuing to be the primary growth driver for the e-vapor category. Attractive Juul operating margins that achieved current cigarette-like-margins due to the benefits of increasing scale and automation in the supply chain. International revenues that equal domestic revenues by 2023 and international margins that approach current international cigarette margins. Under our assumptions, our investment in Juul would generate an after-tax return exceeding our weighted average cost of capital in 2023. Additionally, with five year e-vapor category volume growth in the range of 15% to 20% annually, we would expect the U.S. cigarette category volume decline rate to be consistent with the decline rate estimate of 4% to 5%. I'll remind you that in 2018 with e-vapor category volume growth of 35%, the cigarette category decline rate was 4.5%, including a 0.5% headwind from gas prices. Combined with the earnings and cash generation engine of our core tobacco business, we believe this investment in Juul will support consistent returns over the long-term by providing Altria with a significant stake in the fastest growing -- in the fast growing e-vapor category. Briefly touching on the regulatory environment, the FDA and many others are concerned about an epidemic of UV vapor usage. We share those concerns. This is an issue that we and others in the industry must continue to address aggressively and promptly. We understand that the long-term opportunity of tobacco harm reduction is threatened by continued under-age use. Juul has already taken significant action to address these concerns. Today, it remains the only e-vapor company to have stopped shipping flavored products other than tobacco, menthol and mint [ph] to retail. These shipments stopped on November 13. Juul has taken additional steps to enhance its online age verification processes for sales on its website to adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older as well as developing a restricted distribution system for retailers. Juul has also halted all promotional use of U.S. social media platforms and will continue to monitor and remove inappropriate material from third-party accounts. And Juul is developing new technologies to further restrict use access. We know more can and must be done. That's why we're engaged in unprecedented efforts at the federal and state level to raise the minimum legal age to purchase all tobacco products to 21. We believe it is the single most important step we can take today and will be stepping up our efforts in the coming months. Already this year, we are supporting legislation raising the legal age in both Washington State and Virginia, and we continue to engage nationwide in this effort. We recognize that some of these actions may impact the short-term growth of the e-vapor category. We also know that preserving the long-term opportunity of harm reduction for adults is critical. We remain committed to being part of the solution to this issue. Harm reduction remains central to our view of the future for the tobacco industry. In addition to the significant opportunity presented by e-vapor, we remain very excited about the prospects for heat-not-burned in the U.S. It is now approaching two years since PMI submitted the IQOS PMTA and we are fully prepared to commercialize IQOS in the U.S. We remain fully committed to the success of IQOS in the U.S. and are excited to deploy our robust commercialization plans. PM USA is establishing brick and mortar stores, including locations in multiple cities within the first year of launch. They've already hired personnel to support prelaunch activities and are collaborating with key partners to best position IQOS at retail. Let's now turn to Cronos. While the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions and expected to close in the first half of 2019, Altria's agreement to acquire a 45% stake in Cronos with a warrant to achieve majority ownership will create a new growth opportunity in an adjacent category poised for rapid growth. It complements our strong core tobacco businesses and expands our income opportunity beyond the U.S. After years of evaluating adjacent opportunities the cannabis category is quite attractive and delivers on some key considerations including accretion to our long-term financial performance and synergy without Korea's [ph] capabilities, allowing our combined resources to accelerate Cronos growth. While a range of estimates exist, a recent third-party report projects the 10-year global cannabis revenue opportunity to be in a range of $40 billion under a similar legal landscape to today to more than $250 billion assuming a fully legal market worldwide. We believe the growth opportunities are significant and will extend across the globe as cannabis markets open. Selecting the right partner in this category was critical and we've done just that. Cronos strong management team has built unique capabilities to compete globally across the medicinal, recreational and nutraceutical categories. Our investment will allow Cronos to more quickly expand its global footprint and production capacity. We also expect it to accelerate the execution of its strategic initiatives, including investments in cannabinoid innovation and developing differentiated products and brands across medicinal and recreational categories. We look forward to helping Cronos realize it's significant growth potential. In summary, 2018 was a transformative year for Altria. We are pleased with the performance of our core tobacco businesses as PM USA stabilized Marlboro through its equity investments. We made strategic investments in rapidly growing categories that we believe strengthen our long-term financial profile, enhance our growth prospects and better position the company to deliver long-term value to shareholders through earnings growth and dividends. And of course, we had significant earnings growth and increased our dividend twice. We look forward to sharing more with you at Cagney [ph] in a few weeks. Turning to 2019 guidance, we expect to deliver full-year 2019 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.15 to $4.27. This range represents a growth rate of 4% to 7% from 2018 adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.99. Our guidance reflects our expectation for a higher full-year adjusted effective tax rate, primarily resulting from lower dividends from AB InBev. It also includes increased interest expense from the debt incurred related to the Cronos and Juul transactions. Although we expect that expense to be mostly offset by savings from our previously announced cost reduction program. Our plans also take into account increased investments related to PM USA's lead market plans for IQOS once authorized by the FDA. And lastly, our guidance and little to no earnings or cash contributions from the Cronos and Juul investments. In the first quarter, we'll have the increased interest expense without the full benefits of our cost reduction program and one fewer shipping day in the smokeable segment. Therefore, we expect the growth to come in the last three quarters of the year. We have a proven track record of delivering against our objectives and we maintain our long-term financial goals to grow adjusted diluted EPS at an average annual rate of 7% to 9% and to maintain a dividend payout ratio target of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS. I'll now turn it over to Billy to provide more detail on our 2018 results.
William Gifford:
Thanks Howard, and good morning everyone. Although we had been busy securing these investments over the past few months, we can continue to compete vigorously in the cigarettes and smokeless tobacco categories which still deliver substantially all of our earnings. We're quite pleased with the performance of our core tobacco businesses in 2018 and believe the equity investments we made using the benefits of the corporate tax reform set them up to deliver strong income growth in 2019 and beyond. Here are some highlights. In the smokable product segment, our strategy remains unchanged to maximize income while maintaining momentum on Marlboro over time. We saw a slight decline in adjusted operating company's income for the segment primarily driven by lower volume and higher cost, including additional investments. Those included brand equity investments behind product expansions, innovative packaging and a digital loyalty program that allow PM USA to successfully stabilize Marlboro. Following soft this in 2017, Marlboro's full-year, 2018 cigarette retail share of 43.1% was unchanged compared to its fourth quarter, 2017 share. As we discussed in the third quarter, we believe keeping Marlboro strong and relevant is important to the long-term profit maximization in cigarettes. This may mean that Marlboro retail share varies up and down quarter-to-quarter as we continue to balance momentum behind the brand and profitability. Building off the success of Points West Marlboro's limited time reward program in Texas PMUSA watch Marlboro rewards nationally this month with the goal of its digital leadership, brand engagement and Marlboro's already strong brand equity and royalty. Within the first 10 days of the program, 700,000 adult smokers, 21 plus, enrolled and entered nearly $1.5 million pack codes. In the super premium tobacco and mortar segment, Nat Sherman continues to deliver against its plan and we're pleased with its performance following the regional expansion of that Nat across the Western U.S. in 2018. In the fourth quarter, Nat had a 0.3 share in the cigarette category in states selling the product. The team continues to evaluate further expansion opportunities, which we will share at the appropriate time. In non-combustible products our businesses invested in the regulatory science to support the MRTP falling for Copenhagen snuff and in our commercialization plans for the IQOS' lead market. These are important steps on our journey towards tobacco harm reduction. USSTC will present the science supporting its application to the Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee next week, and we look forward to engaging with the FDA on this application. In the smokeless product segment, USSTC generated adjusted operating income growth of 7.5% in 2018 despite slowing category volumes. We continue to believe that Smokeless industry volume is being affected by higher pricing and adult consumer movement among tobacco products, including e-vapor and other innovative products. USSTC has exciting plans for its portfolio in 2019. USSTC announces plans to expand skull long cut, cool experiment nationally. This offering provides adult dippers [ph] a flavor ford experience and furthers USSTC's strong position in the mint and wintergreen segment. In the second quarter, Copenhagen will open its first retail location in Nashville, Tennessee. The store will sell Copenhagen products and provide a unique opportunity to directly engage with adult tobacco consumers, 21 plus. Turning to our alcohol assets. Ste. Michelle's adjusted OCI significantly in the fourth quarter, so let me provide some additional information on these results. Results were negatively impacted by higher investments in marketing and sales, lower volume and inventory adjustments. As we discussed previously, the growth rate in the premium wine category has slowed and Ste. Michelle works closely with its major distributors to reduce trade inventories. In beer adjusted earnings from our equity investment in AB InBev were $200 million in the fourth quarter, which reflects Altria share of AB InBev third-quarter results. In the short time we've held an interest in AB InBev, there's been volatility in its earnings resulting from the mark-to-market adjustments for hedging of share-based payment programs. A decrease in AB InBev share price as occurred last year results in losses on these hedges which are reflected in our underlying results. For the full year 2018 Altria share these losses was $128 million. I'd like to provide some insight on the cost reduction program that we announced last month. To offset most of the interest expense associated with the debt incurred to finance the Juul and Cronos investments, in the fourth quarter, we announced a cost reduction program expected to deliver approximately $575 million an annual cost savings by the end of 2019. The savings from this program will ramp up through the year. This program includes third-party spending reductions across the business such as professional and consulting services, information technology and product research and regulatory investments. The program also includes workforce reductions of approximately 900 people, particularly within our support services. With that, we'll wrap up and Howard and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available no altria.com. We have also posted today slides and our usual quarterly metrics which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. On that page, we've added quarterly shipping days. NPM USA's menthol share to provide additional color around that part of our business. With that, I'll open up the question and answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will take questions from the investment community. Our first question comes from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Stephen Powers:
So, Howard and Billy, I guess my first question is just how secure you see your fiscal '19 volume outlook in cigarettes to be. And maybe to help with that, I was just wondering if you're able to decomposed some of the volume drivers that you provided as it relates to the fourth quarter, that down 5%. It was worse than the full-year run rate, so I'm just wondering what the contribution from maybe macro-elasticity factors the next -- which I'm assuming that includes excise taxes as well as manufacturer pricing. And the cross category movement would have been in the fourth quarter. And then I guess more importantly, looking at '19, where do you see within the context of those drivers, the potential improvement coming from?
William Gifford:
Steve, I think, if I understand your question correctly, if you look at it as we progressed through the year, we did have to SET increases. One was in Oklahoma and the other was in Kentucky. And so that had an effect because that was represented about 5% of cigarette industry volume. So as you progress through the year, of course, you have the initial drop for the price shock and then it returns to elasticity as you move through time. I would say as we moved to this year right now, gas prices are a tailwind to the overall adult cigarette consumer. As we experienced, gas prices dropped, last year they were up 13% year over year and we've seen them drop as we progress into the first part of this year. So we should see that impact through time.
Stephen Powers:
So the big driver of incremental potential improvement '19 verse '18 is really your gas price outlook?
William Gifford:
That and the overall macro-economic tailwinds that the consumer is experiencing.
Stephen Powers:
Okay, great. And I need to run the math, but with 15% to 20% category growth in e-vapor, the negative 4%, negative 5% category declines, you call it in core combustible going forward, I'm assuming some positive contribution from IQOS and heat-not-burn in your outlook. I guess my question is that you look forward five years from now, are you expecting market wide nicotine consumption to be higher or lower in the U.S. versus now and maybe by what magnitude? And I guess within that there's an implied question about what the expected interplay between e-vapor and heat-not-burn may be with Smokeless.
Howard Willard:
I think with regard to your question, our primary focus has been on estimating by individual category and we provided that information to you. I think with regard to heat-not-burn, I think it's clearly going to have an impact going forward on cigarettes and likely e-vapor, but I think that we have not really included that in our calculations and we're really waiting until we get some experience in the marketplace this year and certainly we can make adjustments to any of our estimates. But certainly, we believe that when we do get approval from the FDA to put IQOS in the market, it is an additional driver of growth in the non-combustible tobacco product segment.
Stephen Powers:
And if I could do one more related to Juul and I greatly thank you for the insight you provided in your slides and on the call today with respect to Juul. But I guess it's kind of three-follow on questions now that you've opened up on Juul. I find myself a little bit greedy for more. So just based on your conversations with Juul management, recognizing that they're independent and private, I guess as we go forward, what level of incremental disclosure do you expect you'll be able to share over time, whether in a few weeks at Cagney or just in general? Question number one. And I guess within that, related to that, two follow ons. The first one is your fiscal '19 guidance assumes zero -- effectively zero EPS in cash contribution from Cronos and Juul. And I guess -- is that affirm estimate of break-even or you're simply excluding Juul and Cronos from guidance? Another way to ask that question is are you able to absorb volatility in Cronos, Juul contributions within the four to seven range or does that create risk of pushing you outside the range? And lastly, sorry, the five year kind of break-even I'm return rate, economic return that you called out on Juul basing on your expectations is that -- what are you seeing in terms of like cash coming back to -- is that a theoretical return or is that actual -- do you expect to receive cash in the form of dividends from Juul? So your cash breakeven over that five-year timeframe. Sorry for all the questions. Thanks.
Howard Willard:
Well, you're going to make us work hard this morning, aren't you? I'll take a crack at them and if I miss something, I'm sure Billy will jump in. So with regard to the disclosure, as you pointed out, given the time since the closing, we put together significantly more information and shared it today. And obviously, as we get further questions, we'll look for opportunities to share more relevant information with investors. And the other thing I would reference is that we expect at some point in the future, probably later this year, we will be accounting for the Juul investment following antitrust approval using the equity income approach. And when we do that, there will be more disclosure in our SCC documents. So that's I think, something to look forward to and we do expect antitrust approval during this year. The second thing is with regard to our statement about 2019 income; I think that what that really reflects is that with regard to Juul, we're kind of waiting before it gets reflected in our income based on the equity income method. So we thought on the side of conservatism that it made sense to not guess as to the timing of antitrust approval. And then the second thing I would say is on Cronos, obviously they're a publicly traded company and so you have access to what their current income is. And their income today is modest. The investment is really designed to rapidly accelerate their growth rate. And so we don't expect it to be a material contribution in 2019. With regard to the guidance range of 4% to 7%, that is designed as it's always been in the past, to be a wide enough range to take into account of the variety of changes that could occur, and that could reflect changes in our core business with regard to Juul or with regard to Cronos. So it's designed to reflect our best all in estimate of what could happen during the year. Then you asked a question about the five-year breakeven, and I think the way we calculated that; it was really taking the equity income we expect in five years tax affecting it and then dividing it by the overall investment in Juul. So it is an equity income return, not a cash return, although obviously by that point, given the significant level of income, we would expect to have some dividends as well.
William Gifford:
The only thing I would add Steve, I think it's important to remember under both, Juul or Cronos as a business is growing and faces significant opportunity to expand outside of the U.S. with huge growth potential. That reinvestment in the business for a period of time is appropriate.
Howard Willard:
Yes, that's absolutely right and I think we agree with the other Juul investors that its growth prospects are so strong that now's the time to invest in ultimately driving top line growth.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Pamela Kaufman:
I was just hoping to get a sense for how you were thinking about Juul's mid-term growth outlook, just given that the company is removing flavors from retail channels and then what the impact is on the economics of the investment if the category grows faster than 15% to 20%, why is 15% to 20%, I guess the right forecast and what assumptions feed into that?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think with regard to the mid-term forecast, one of the reasons why we selected a five-year period to estimate the growth rate of the e-vapor category and Juul as a significant driver of that growth is I think there is a bit of uncertainty as to whether or not there'll be a slowdown in growth in the next year or two as the industry works together with the FDA to drive down huge usage. And so I think that is a to be determined, but I think even taking into account the fact that there could be some impact in the short run. I think we're confident in that long-term growth rate that we forecasted. It may just be that they're slower growth early on and more rapid growth later on. I think with regard to the significant action Juul took in removing their flavors from retail, I do expect that that is going to have some impact on their overall growth rate this year. But I think we also believe that adults will continue to buy the other flavored products at mainstream retail stores and, of course, with heightened age verification, those other flavors are available to adults on the Juul website. So we still think they have pretty good growth prospects for this year even with those actions. I think we're pretty comfortable with our forecasts of 15% to 20% compound annual growth rate over five years. And certainly, with that level of growth, we believe the investment in Juul is additive in a significant way to our income growth. Your question is if it grows faster, is it still additive to our income growth? And I think that it can certainly grow faster than 20% and still be additive based on our estimates. I suppose there is some genetically higher growth rate, but that may not be the case, but we're pretty comfortable that it's under a whole range of scenarios that financially, this is a good thing for our income growth.
Pamela Kaufman:
Okay, thanks. And then just with respect to Juul's international opportunity, how do you think about the impact of some of the differences in the regulatory backdrop just given the nicotine caps and international markets and then just lower barriers to entry for competitors in the category of relative to the U.S.?
Howard Willard:
I think that when you look at various international markets, there are different regulatory requirements that have to be navigated and frankly, there are different consumer expectations given differences between the cigarettes in those markets that are purchased by adults backhoe consumers over there compared to the U.S. So both of those things need to be navigated successfully in order to have a similar level of success internationally to what Juul has had in the U.S. We are a highly confident that Juul has the technical capability, the current products and the products in the pipeline to navigate those differences and have strong success overseas. So I think that frankly, that there certainly is some work to be done there, but I think that they are already well on their way to having done that and I think that we're encouraged by the products they have in their pipeline.
Operator:
Our next question from Vivien Azer with Cowen. Please go ahead.
Vivien Azer:
So, my first question is for you, Billy. You called out like the favorable macro backdrop in terms of your comfort around the 3.5% to 5% declined for 2019. I have a hard time reconciling that with the pretty consistent downgrading that we're seeing at the low end of the category, where deep discount is consistently gaining share at the expense of discount. So can you help me reconcile that? That's my first question. Thank you.
William Gifford:
I think if you think about the economic recovery, it's a bit uneven. So it's a bit lumpy. So those consumers that were engaged in the branded discount as we've increased the margins and profitability of our brand specifically you can see some down trading that takes place because you can even think of the adult tobacco consumer with uneven economic recovery. Those at the lower end haven't recovered to the same extent as those at the higher end of the category and so that's where you're seeing that trend within the discount category as the branded discount brands are taking an increased profitability and margin
Vivien Azer:
And you don't think that there's a risk over time that that starts to kind of bleed up into the branded premium segments?
William Gifford:
Yeah, based on our consumer research, Vivien, because of that uneven, we keep an eye on that group of consumers at that lower end to make sure that we feel comfortable with where we're at. We feel very strong with the premium segment. I think that's reminiscent. You can see with the flatness of the overall discount category and just churn within. So we don't see any signs at this point that would point to it moving up to the premium segment.
Howard Willard:
Vivien, I'd refer you to the last couple of years. You know, what has really happened is you've had particularly over the last year, a pretty nice performance by the premium brands including Marlboro, but you've had -- and you've had a flat overall discount category from a market share perspective. But there's been significant movement from branded discount products to deep discount products. And of course, there's certainly market action that could be taken to try and address that, but given the nice margins that we have on L&M, I think that we're comfortable with the current trends in the marketplace.
Vivien Azer:
My second question is around kind of the longer-term outlook for cigarette industry volume declines of 4% to 5%. It certainly makes sense that if you're expecting a deceleration in e-cig, it shouldn't be like incrementally that much worse for the cigarette category. That being said, I am curious to hear your thoughts around dual use within that e-cigarette revenue pool. Because if you've got dual users today that ultimately migrate to single category use on the e-cigarette side, that would suggest that there would be some incremental degradation on cigarettes if I'm thinking about it right. So I'd love to hear your thoughts on that. Thanks.
Howard Willard:
I think you have to consider, take 2018 as a guide. You had very substantial growth in e-vapor volume and it was both people converting completely from cigarettes to e-vapor as well as a substantial amount of dual use as people tried e-vapor and in many cases, Juul and are deciding whether to continue to dual-use or convert completely. So I think that 2018 was a pretty active year for e-vapor category growth. And, of course, as we know, the decline rate of the cigarette category was only 4.5% and that was elevated 0.5% by increasing gas prices. So, I think it shows you that the cigarette category decline rate is pretty persistent and it can withstand a fair amount of growth from e-vapor. So we continue to be very comfortable with our forecasted decline rate of the cigarette category over the next five years of 4% to 5%.
William Gifford:
And I think it's important to remember, Vivien in the base 3% to 4% that was historical. There was always 1% of that that was included in sector decline of consumer doing exactly what you're saying, either replacing certain occasions or converting completely as Howard mentioned, so that if you will already in the 3% to 4% that was in the historical run.
Operator:
Our next question is from Chris Growe with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Christopher Growe:
Just to follow on Vivien's question there, you've mentioned this 1% is point drag on volume for moving across categories. And I think you said it was around a 1.4% drag on the category from e-vapor in 2018. That category was also pulling from smokeless tobacco as an example. I'm just curious how much of overall volume effect it might've had on your business, like how much did it pull from smokeable? Thank you. Define that as well as smokeless. I think we're seeing some effect in that category as well.
William Gifford:
We don't have an exact number for you, but that's something that we're providing the future. But you're right. I think you also had dual usage between smokeless and the e-vapor category and so you're right at that. That is also pulling some of those consumers because the e-vapor experience was closer to what they were transitioning from being an inhalable type product versus a smokeless product.
Howard Willard:
Chris, I would also say on smokeless, you've got two things going on, which is I do think you have some consumers that were smokeless users that are moving into e-vapor. Probably the bigger impact on the smokeless growth rate is that in the past a lot of cigarette smokers were using smokeless as an alternative product, and I think a fair number of them have now said, "Boy, with the presence of Juul in the marketplace, I've got a closer experience to my cigarettes and smokeless that's attractive to me." So I think that has also contributed to the decline in the growth rate of smokeless.
Christopher Growe:
And as you think about your outlook for them that through 2023, do you assume like e-cigarette starts to see excise tax is implemented? Is that a factor in that model? And then would you just assume from a high level that Juul grows in line with the category over that time?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I think we're comfortable with that growth rate over a variety of excise tax assumptions. But I would tell you that I believe that it's a reasonable assumption to believe that you'll get some incremental excise taxes on e-vapor, but then it will not be a significant acceleration of what's happened over the last few years. And I think that the argument that's been made at the state level about the fact that given the potential for harm reduction that's offered by e-vapor, that that is not a place where significant excise tax increases should be put in place. I think that's been fairly persuasive and I would expect it to continue to be. I think you had a second question. Remind me of it.
Christopher Growe:
And then, just if Juul would grow in line with the category, would that be your operating assumption in that 5-year model?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I think our assumption is that the Juul is going to grow faster than the category. I mean, if you look at 2018, Juul growth represented more than the growth in the category, and I think there's probably -- as probably likely, that it may moderate from being the whole growth of the category going forward but we would expect it to be growing at a much more rapid rate than the other brands in the category.
Operator:
Our next question is from Michael Lavery with Piper Jaffray.
Michael Lavery:
On you decomposition on Slide 6; you show up modest deceleration in your projected or estimated impact from elasticity but it looks like that -- your pricing has actually accelerated in '18 versus '17; how do you reconcile that?
William Gifford:
Yes, I think when you look at that Michael, you got to take in all -- the consideration of all factors. So you got to take in the total change to the consumer. So you have SET differentials that get annualized then across time, so that price elasticity is not just manufacturer list price, it's increase in list price to the consumer.
Michael Lavery:
And on IQOS, can you just specify what it is that you are assuming in guidance? And would it be right to think you're not counting on any revenues until you get approval but that there are some costs you are factoring in and then would there be incremental spending if revenues come; how should we think about that?
Howard Willard:
We are optimistic and hopeful that IQOS is going to get approved fairly soon and so we've got out a full rollout of IQOS included in our guidance.
Michael Lavery:
So you did also mention both, a lead market but also stores in multiple cities which sound a little bit broader and faster, and maybe a bigger launch then you've hinted at in the past. Have you expanded your plans? And you also said when you were reading through that slide related to it, you said that you are establishing stores; are you doing that now ahead of approval? And how should we think about what your -- how your position is relative to that?
Howard Willard:
You were listening carefully. Yes, I think -- I don't know that it's a change in our plans but our belief is that IQOS is going to be quite a success and that after the lead market we'll be moving quickly to other markets. And what we have learned as we've been focused on gaining access to and establishing retail locations is that it's not something you can do overnight. And so we've made the decision that it's worth the incremental investment in order to line up those locations in multiple markets in advance. And obviously, as the time for the approval of IQOS drags on, it does cause us to incur a little bit of incremental expense but we think the upside from commercializing IQOS is big enough that we want to be fully ready the minute we get FDA approval.
Michael Lavery:
And so you mentioned the Copenhagen store in Nashville, is that one you would be able to quickly repurpose as a dual brand outlet or would you want to separate those for brand identity and marketing purposes?
William Gifford:
I think that something we'll consider long-term Michael. I think the opportunity in Nashville, that's the home of the manufacturing base. And so we think it affords our consumer a great opportunity to engage with the brand, and be right there where we're manufacturing the product. So we're really focused currently on the engagement with those adult dippers right there where the product is made.
Michael Lavery:
One real quick last one; will you give the share gains in the U.K. and Canada for Juul? Is that also driving category growth or is it primarily market share momentum?
Howard Willard:
No, I don't know that I have a good answer to that. I could speculate but I will not.
Operator:
Your next question is from Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong:
I wanted just a quick clarification, the category volume for e-vapor; for that you laid out on slide number 8. Is that equalized volume to cigarette packs or what is the --kind of -- how should we think about that relative to the cigarette volume?
William Gifford:
I think Judy that short is trying to equalize across open systems in closed. So if you think about it that's the number of pods that are in the marketplace. If you think about the equalization to total cigarettes, you have to think about what's their pod equivalent of a cigarette. And so a pod equivalent to a cigarette we would estimate to be around one pod per pack of cigarettes.
Judy Hong:
So basically, if you -- so Juul at 0.5 million pods would be equivalent to roughly like 6% or 7% of the total cigarette volume equivalent?
Howard Willard:
Yes, that would be the case.
Judy Hong:
Okay. So the total e-vapor category today is about 15% to 20% of the total cigarette equivalent volume in your estimate just based on this math?
Howard Willard:
That's correct, Judy.
Judy Hong:
So I guess that seems like it's a pretty big number in the context of the cigarette category, and I guess I'm still a little bit confused as to why it's not having a much bigger impact on the total cigarette volume if the size of the e-vapor category is already 15% of the total.
William Gifford :
I think you have to think about it Judy is, a base of that has been in place for quite a while; so if you think about the initial start because we're including open systems in this overall equalization. Open systems have been in place going back a number of years and I think that's the point I was trying to raise is, it's important to remember, within the cigarette category the historical decline rate of 3% to 4% included 1% that was moving to other tobacco categories. And so part of the historical decline already assume that there were going to be consumers progressing from cigarettes to other tobacco categories.
Judy Hong:
And then just going back to the international opportunity for Juul, I mean it sounds like based on the assumptions would imply that your revenue for international markets from Juul is going to be a pretty sizeable number at a margin that's also pretty attractive. So given some of the experience that we've seen where -- we've seen some bumps along the way for IQOS and other players that have launched in markets outside the U.S. I guess I'm just wondering what gives you the confidence about sort of the big revenue contribution and margin contribution in five years.
Howard Willard:
Yes, I mean -- Judy, I think the way I would frame that is, I acknowledged that there have been a number of products, particularly in the e-vapor category that have had some success, and then that success has fizzled. And so certainly that is something you have to be sensitive to but I have to point out that Juul's growth and success in the U.S market last year was unique, and first of it's kind compared to other tobacco products successes both in the U. S. and overseas. I mean the growth rate was dramatic, it represented the entire growth of e-vapor for the year and it dramatically reaccelerated the growth of e-vapor. So I think the reason that we have confidence that it's going to have more success in overseas markets over the next five years than some of the other products that have been introduced over there is because it had such dramatic success in the U.S last year.
Judy Hong:
And then my last question, just -- Billy, when you think about Q1 combustible or smokeable volume, am I right in thinking that if you layer in the one less shipping day and then I think you're lapping a pretty big inventory levels a year ago; so volume sounds like it could be down double-digits in Q1; is that sort of in the ballpark?
William Gifford:
Judy, you know we're careful not to guide to the quarter level on volume but I think you're thinking about trade inventories that was a big component in the first quarter of last year so it's important to pick that up; so you're exactly right from that standpoint, it's important to consider how trade inventories were moving last year versus your expectations for this year.
Operator:
Our next question is from Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.
Bonnie Herzog:
I had a question on your EPS growth guidance; you guys now see a wide range in 2019 but you stated back in December that you expected your EPS growth to be slightly below your long-term 7% to 9% growth algorithm. So just wanted to understand what changed or are you guys just being prudent with a wide range? And then I wanted to confirm your guidance assumes no buybacks this year but just kind of wondering if there is a chance that could change or maybe what needs to happen to get you back in the market to buy back your stock?
Howard Willard:
I'll answer the first part of your question and then I'll turn it over to Billy. The short answer on December versus today is nothing changed. We viewed 4% to 7% guidance is slightly below the 7% to 9% long-term trend, and you are right that it is a three percentage point wide range but I think that -- we think it's prudent given some of the increased volatility we've seen in our income in large part driven by volatility in [indiscernible] income stream that in order to give the investment community the right confidence in our guidance that a bit of a wider range is prudent and appropriate.
William Gifford:
And as far as share buyback Bonnie, remember, we had about $350 million; I think it was $345 million to be exact as we ended last year in the current program. And we expect to complete that by mid-year, that is unchanged; and then we'll assess the situation and come forward if anything is appropriate after that.
Bonnie Herzog:
And then I had a question on Marlboro; you guys successfully stabilized Marlboro share in 2018. So as we look forward, do you believe it's realistic that Marlboro could take share in a shrinking volume pool, especially given your new Marlboro Rewards program? And then I also wanted to ask about the coupon inserts for Juul and Marlboro packs? Can you guys help us understand the strategy with those and how we should think about cannibalization of Marlboro versus maybe the opportunity to take share from competitors sick brands?
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think with regard to Marlboro, you're right, we did stabilize this year and we think it's got very strong momentum and that will continue into this year. But I also think you have to consider the fact that our objective in the smokeable segment is to maximize income, and so I think you will see us balancing our desire to maximize income against the momentum of Marlboro, and we did that this year and I think we'll continue to do it. I think with regard to your question about putting Juul inserts on our cigarette packs; I would first of all say that I think the vast majority of the support that we will provide to Juul is really going to be brand agnostic or company agnostic with regard to how it helps Juul source volume. So if you think about them putting Juul into a much better display space of retail and having higher visibility or you think about them potentially gaining access to some of our other services. I think most of those services are not going to have a greater impact on our brands than they would on our competitor's brands. I think you could particularly with the onserts; obviously, we can only put onserts on our packs, they don't go on competitors packs. So, theoretically I guess it could result in a bit more volume coming out of Marlboro but I think that is unlikely to be the case. And I say that for really two reasons; I think there is already very high awareness amongst all cigarette -- adult cigarette smokers and frankly, all Marlboro smokers about the availability of Juul. So I think that a lot of that awareness has already been established, I wouldn't expect a big incremental uptick from those onserts. And then secondly, I would point out that I think Juul tends to get more of it's growth from the 21-year old to 29-year old cigarette smoker than it does from the 30-plus cigarette smoker. And if you think about it, I think as we've communicated in the past; Marlboro share of those 21-year old to 29-year old smokers is about equal to it's overall share but there are several other cigarette brands that are overdeveloped amongst 21-year to 29-year olds such as Newport, Camel or Natural American Spirit that frankly, might actually give you more volume on a relative basis than Marlboro.
Bonnie Herzog:
That's really helpful. My final question for you guys is about the FDA. I was hoping you guys could give us some color from your perspective on the FDA's recent commentary surrounding harsher [ph] e-cig regulation. Was it a surprise to you that they are now putting threats out there, especially after your investment in Juul? And then wondering if you've spoken to them recently and what's your sense of how they're thinking about your ownership stake in Juul as well as some of the initiatives Juul's working on to help reduce youth [ph] use e-cig to use? Thanks.
Howard Willard:
Sure. I don't think we've been surprised at FDA is concerned about youth usage of e-vapor products. I think as you know, both Juul and Alfie, we were in talking to them in November. They had a high level of concern then, we shared that concern and we've been interacting back and forth with the agency on the actions we're taking to try and reduce the levels of youth usage of e-vapor products. And frankly, I think their concern and their focus on the industry taking significant steps to drive down youth usage is appropriate and justified. And I think that we agree with Juul that we need to take significant action. I think Juul has already taken significant action, but we also agree that more must be done. So I think that our view is that it's important to drive down youth usage in order to preserve this opportunity for adult cigarette smokers to be able to switch to a very compelling non-combustible product. And I think we will ultimately achieve both. I think will drive down youth usage and still make this available to adult cigarette smokers as an alternative. And I just think we have some work to do and we're fully prepared to engage on that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Adam Spielman with Citi. Please go ahead.
Adam Spielman:
Thank you very much. I suppose to kind say thank you for providing so much more data than usual. It really is appreciated. So thank you for that. I have two quick questions. I hope they're quick. So if I take what you've said about the impact of basically the growth of Juul, this is Slide 8, and equate that to cigarettes, it looks like the Juul has grown about 0.4 billion units, which equates essentially to a full percent market share growth. And that's true for the whole e-cigarettes or e-vapor category. And yet you've also said that the impact of the growth of e-vapor on cigarettes is about 1.3%, 1.4%. So this is outright [ph], we are thinking about it, but basically two-thirds of vapor growth is incremental. Is that how we should think about it? And I guess if that is right way of thinking about it, where is that increment coming from? Do you think it's mostly coming from people in their 20s or what? So that's one question.
Howard Willard:
I'm not sure I'm tracking exactly with your math, but let me try and answer the question in a more general way, which is, you're right about the impact that we think it's having on the cigarette category. But beyond the impact that it's having on the cigarette category, we think it's also sourcing, as we said earlier, from the smokeless category probably from the cigar category as well. And we also think that with all the trial that's going on, part of their volume is coming from increased usage occasions by a variety of adult tobacco consumers. And that may settle out over time. I think that given the increased availability of the product, I think you have a lot of people that are trying it while still using their existing tobacco product and I think over time they're going to make a decision and they'll either switch completely to Juul but I think you saw that in the 2018 number as well.
Adam Spielman:
Fine. I mean, just to -- I mean, also how relevant it is but my math is basically, there was 400 incremental million pods of Juul sold in 2018 and that equates to roughly 4% of cigarette market if one pod is one pack of cigarettes. So that's how I was thinking about it. But the second question is really coming back to this question about the onsets and the inserts on your packs. I mean, can you confirm that Juul will be able to put or maybe deny, that they'll be able to put coupons. So the might be, I'm making this up here, but let's say $5 off advertising to somebody who buys a pack of Marlboro. So, is that right? That they'll be able to keep on whether it's just market raise awareness?
William Gifford:
Yeah. I thinking you're thinking about it right. I think it's important to remember what Howard said, if our Marlboro consumer, so take the one person that receives that in their pack, if they have a decision to switch, they would have switched anyway. And so we would want them to switch to the Juul product, which we have an investment in versus searching for other alternative products out there. So the awareness is already high. If the individual is making the decision to switch, we want them to switch to Juul.
Adam Spielman:
Fine. So, I understand that. And is that something you sort of been able to sort of validate with focus groups? Because to me, it's sort of kind of quite a thing that you're potentially offering your smokers let's say $5 off for sure.
Howard Willard:
Yeah, I mean, you are right that essentially we are cross-promoting, which is a fairly common thing and I think you may be thinking about the fact that we have a 35% economic interest in Juul and we have 100% economic interests in our cigarette business. And so that may be what's causing you to be surprised we would be willing to do this. I think I would frame it with a couple of thoughts. First of all, we think that even with the impact that the Juul could have on the overall volume growth and potential profit growth from our cigarette business going forward, even if it does impact it, we think when you take the sum of our of our cigarette profitability growth and you combine it with the economic contribution from Juul over the next five years, we think that's a net positive to us. And it's a net positive even if there's a bit more growth in Juul coming from our brands than from the competitors. So that's the first reason. The second reason is if you look at it, we four, frankly I've been with the company 26 years, almost my entire career. We have believed that our business would be better in the long-term if we could offer harm-reduced products that would represent attractive alternatives to our adult cigarette smokers to switch. And we've invested billions of dollars in it and lots of effort and ultimately, until December of this year, we really didn't have the product portfolio to fully achieve our harm reduction aspiration. And the opportunity to invest in Juul, I think really makes that harm reduction aspiration a reality. And if you look at it, we've got IQOS and the heat-not-burn category, the number one product and brand in that category. We've got Copenhagen and Skull and the oral tobacco products category and we had a hole in the e-vapor category and we've now filled that with our 35% economic interest in Juul. So I think that we are finally going to be able to achieve our harm reduction aspiration. And I think we can do that over the next 10 years and still deliver our long-term 7% to 9% EPS growth algorithm and give 80% of that adjusted EPS back to shareholders in the form of dividends. And I think our ability to achieve both harm reduction and secure our long-term financial performance was enhanced by the investment in Juul.
Adam Spielman:
Thank you very much for those answers. Kind of just very quickly ask you. And have you actually done focus groups that are found out what might happen if you put coupons or other material in your cigarettes packets?
Howard Willard:
We've done a variety of work to understand the interaction between cigarette smokers and Juul. I don't know that we've done something specifically to what you're referencing, but we think we have a pretty firm understanding of what the interaction between the two categories is.
Operator:
Our next question is from Nick [ph] with RBC Capital Markets.
Unidentified Analyst:
I'll try to make this quick because I know we're going a little long here. How would you -- obviously a lot of decisions had been made, a lot of portfolio transformation. I'm just curious where the wine business fits into kind of your vision of the future of Altria. The second question is just on the pricing. I mean, very, very strong, at least relative to what we were looking for. Maybe you can provide some context around that. Was that the loyalty program kind of making you a little bit more efficient in terms of promo spend? And then the third is just on Cronos. Is this a kind of a platform, a strategy, meaning you will look to get into all types of products, or is this going to really be just focused on your existing categories? Thanks.
Howard Willard:
I think with regard to wine, I don't know that there's a real change there. I think that we have long said that we very much like the wine business and we are committed to returning it to strong income growth. But we've also said that it's not core like the rest of our tobacco businesses are. And that's been the case for quite some time and there hasn't been a change there. So we remain committed to running that business well. It's had a bit of a downturn over the last two years, but we're confident that the employees there have strategies in place to turn that around. With regard to Cronos, I think that you shouldn't assume that our existing product portfolio at Cronos is where we're going to stop. I think that both we and Cronos think there are opportunities really across the world in a variety of product categories, both recreational and medicinal that would involve them entering new product forms and developing new products and new product brands. I think it's early days there and we have really not restricted our thinking with regard to that. I think I'll hand over to Billy the question on cigarette pricing.
William Gifford:
Nick, I would point you to, on pricing, it's the process of data analytics that we've enhanced here that allows us to be more efficient and effective. The way we think about the total value equation is specifically the promotional piece that we run at retail, so that drives the overall price realization up through time.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Paige Magness for closing comments.
Paige Magness:
Thank you all for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please call us at investor relations. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Bill Marshall - Altria Group, Inc. Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc. William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co. Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC Stephen Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd. Jennifer Maloney - The Wall Street Journal
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group's 2018 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Bill Marshall - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Laurie. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Howard Willard, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO, to discuss Altria's 2018 third quarter and first nine months business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results, which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2017. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements, and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release. With that, I'll turn the call over to Howard.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Altria delivered excellent third quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 20% and continued to return large amounts of cash to our shareholders. Our tobacco businesses are successfully executing against their strategies, while making strategic investments to drive long-term success. Before moving to our third quarter results, I'd like to address recent FDA activity. In September, the FDA asked several companies, including Altria, to provide plans to address underage use of e-vapor products. We welcomed FDA's action and we agreed that the reported rise in underage use of e-vapor products is alarming and immediate action should be taken. We're also concerned that use of e-vapor products may jeopardize the harm reduction opportunity for e-vapor. We recently met with Commissioner Gottlieb to discuss steps that could be taken to address underage access and use. Consistent with our discussion with the FDA and because we believe in the long-term promise of e-vapor products and harm reduction, we're taking immediate action to address this complex situation. First, Nu Mark will remove from the market MarkTen Elite and Apex by MarkTen pod-based products until these products receive a market order from the FDA or the youth issue is otherwise addressed. Second, for our remaining MarkTen and Green Smoke cig-a-like products, Nu Mark will sell only tobacco, menthol and mint varieties. Nu Mark will discontinue the sale of all other flavor variants of our cig-a-like products until these products receive a market order from the FDA or the youth issue is otherwise addressed. Although we don't believe we have a current issue with youth access or use of our e-vapor products, we are taking this action because we don't want to risk contributing to the issue. Additionally, we will support federal legislation to establish 21 as the minimum age to purchase any tobacco product. We think it makes sense to accomplish this through a phased-in approach. For context, we estimate that approximately 5% of adult tobacco consumers are legal age through 20, and that this age demographic represents approximately 2% of cigarette (4:24) industry volumes, 4% of smokeless industry volumes and 15% of e-vapor industry volumes. We, of course, recognize the impacts these decisions will have on our consumers, trade partners, suppliers and others. We believe these actions are essential to addressing the youth e-vapor epidemic and preserving the long-term harm reduction opportunity for e-vapor products. We support adult tobacco consumer choice and the promise of tobacco harm reduction, and we fully intend to operate compelling portfolio of e-vapor products for adult smokers and vapors. Through the FDA's product review pathways or when underage use of e-vapor is addressed. After removing Nu Mark's pod-based products and cig-a-like flavor variants, approximately 80% of Nu Mark's e-vapor volume in the third quarter of 2018 will remain on the market. These actions are outlined in our written response to the FDA, which was posted earlier this morning to altria.com. With that, let's move now to our operating results. The smokeable products segment performed in line with our expectations, while adjusted operating companies income in the third quarter was essentially flat from the prior year, PM USA continues to make progress stabilizing Marlboro share through investments in the brand's equity. Marlboro's retail share decreased 0.1 of a share point in the third quarter to 43.1%, but is unchanged from its fourth quarter 2017 share. Billy will provide additional detail on our brand equity investments in a minute. Next, the smokeless products segment delivered adjusted operating companies income growth of 7% in the third quarter, largely driven by strong net price realization. USSTC's total smokeless share grew 0.1 of a share point in the third quarter to 54.1%. On a combined basis, Copenhagen and Skoal share was unchanged in the third quarter at 50.7%, and was up 0.30 of a share point (06:40) from the fourth quarter of 2017. In heated tobacco, PM USA's initial lead market plans for IQOS are ready and we remain hopeful for FDA authorization by year-end. So in summary, we remain confident in our ability to deliver long-term value to shareholders by maximizing our core tobacco businesses, pursuing innovative reduced risk products and responsibly leading our industry forward through tobacco harm reduction. We believe our year-to-date performance positions us well to deliver on our full year plans. As a result, we are tightening our guidance, raising the lower end of our full-year 2018 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $3.95 for a revised range of $3.95 to $4.03, representing a growth rate of 16.5% to 19% from the 2017 base. I'll now turn it over to Billy to provide more detail on our quarterly performance.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Howard, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the smokeable products segment. In the third quarter, smokeable adjusted OCI was essentially unchanged from the prior year as higher resolution expenses, lower cigarette volume and higher cost, including strategic business investments, were offset by higher pricing. Smokeable adjusted OCI margins declined 1.4 percentage points to 50.4%. The smokeable products segment's reported cigarette shipment volume declined by 3.7% in the third quarter, primarily driven by the industry's rate of decline and retail share losses, partially offset by trade inventory movements. After adjusting for trade inventory movements, cigarette volumes declined an estimated 5% in the quarter and an estimated 5.5% in the first nine months. We estimate that cigarette industry volumes declined approximately 4.5% in both the third quarter and for the first nine months. While the economic environment remains positive for the adult tobacco consumer, we believe increased gas prices, continued movement by adult smokers among tobacco categories, including e-vapor, and state excise taxes affected cigarette volumes in the quarter. We estimate the state excise tax increases on July 1 in Kentucky and Oklahoma had an impact to cigarette industry volumes of just under 0.5%. As Howard mentioned earlier, PM USA's investments have helped stabilize share for Marlboro. Marlboro's limited time rewards program in Texas, Points West, exceeded PM USA's expectations in creating excitement for the brand by increasing Marlboro's digital engagement with adult smokers. During the nine month enrollment period, over 150,000 adult smokers, 21 and older, in Texas enrolled in the program and entered nearly two million pack codes. And the frequency of engagement on Marlboro.com increased by over 45% in Texas. Building up the success of Points West in Texas, which ended in the third quarter, PM USA plans to launch Marlboro Rewards nationally in January of 2019. PM USA's excited to offer Marlboro Rewards to adult smokers 21 and older, with the goal of increasing its digital leadership, brand engagement and Marlboro's already strong brand equity and loyalty. On the product side, Marlboro Ice has performed well since its national expansion in the first quarter with adult consumers responding favorably to the innovative reseal pack. And this quarter, PM USA is expanding this packaging technology to other offerings, including Marlboro Smooth, a unique menthol offering. PM USA continues to pursue opportunities to use this innovative packaging in the future. In the super-premium tobacco and water segment, Nat Sherman has delivered solid performance following the regional expansion of Nat's across the Western United States earlier this year. And the team is evaluating further expansion opportunities. The cigar business continued to perform well, growing reported shipment volume nearly 7% in the third quarter and more than 4% for the first nine months. As a reminder for the fourth quarter, the smokeable products segment will have an extra shipping day compared to the prior year. Turning to our smokeless products segment, adjusted OCI grew 7% in the third quarter, primarily driven by higher pricing partially offset by higher cost. Smokeless products segment adjusted shipment volume declined an estimated 0.5% for the first nine months. Smokeless industry volume declined an estimated 1% over the past six months. We continue to believe that smokeless industry volume is being affected by higher pricing in the category and adult tobacco consumer movement among tobacco products, including e-vapor products. During the third quarter, USSTC announced plans to expand Copenhagen's Smooth Wintergreen to 22 states. This offering provides a balanced wintergreen flavor for adult dippers seeking a differentiated less intense wintergreen flavor. In September, the FDA accepted and filed, versus standard scientific review, USSTC's modified risk tobacco product application for Copenhagen Snuff. The FDA will now begin this review process, which includes opportunities for public comment. We are looking forward to engaging with FDA on this application. Turning to our alcohol assets. Ste. Michelle's adjusted OCI decreased $7 million in the third quarter primarily driven by higher marketing and sales expenses and lower shipment volume, partially offset by favorable mix. In beer, adjusted earnings from our equity investment in AB InBev were $224 million in the third quarter, which reflects Altria's share of AB InBev's second quarter results. We continue to return cash to shareholders, paying out over $3.9 billion in dividends through the first nine months of 2018. And in August, we increased our dividend by 14.3%, the second increase this year resulting in an overall quarterly dividend rate increase of 21.2% since the beginning of the year. Altria's current annualized dividend rate of $3.20 per share represents an annual dividend yield of 5.2% as of October 19, 2018. We also repurchased approximately $367 million of shares in the third quarter and over $1.3 billion for the first nine months. As of the end of the third quarter, we had approximately $700 million remaining in the current share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of the second quarter of 2019. With that, we'll wrap up and Howard and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available in altria.com. We've posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. We've also included some historical data on the discount category dynamics, we discussed last quarter. Specifically, the churn between deep discount and branded discount. The chart shows that the overall discount category retail share has been relatively stable over time and that deep discount retail share, while experiencing recent growth, has been at even higher levels in the past than currently. With that, I'll open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Jaffray.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Good morning.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Michael.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Your stance with the FDA and this proactive approach, I think, reinforces the leadership role you've had with regulatory stuff. But can you just elaborate a little bit on your thinking on the pods versus cig-a-likes, and what some of the distinctions between the two might be that you're thinking about as you make this announcement?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. I mean, I think the way we thought about this was that we believe e-vapor has a lot of opportunity to convert adult cigarette smokers in the short, medium and long term. But clearly, the significant increase in youth usage of the products puts that at risk, and we think rapid and significant action is necessary. And I think as we looked at the data that is available and some of the remarks from the FDA, I think we concluded that the driver of the recent increase, we think, is pod-based products and flavored products. And so we thought that the two actions that we took addressed the drivers of the increased usage here in the short run. And then of course, our decision to support a minimum age to purchase going forward at the federal level of 21, we think, also can help address this issue. Because the data we've seen from the past study shows that the primary source of youth access to these e-vapor products is social access, and we think if the minimum age to purchase is raised to 21 should have a significant impact on that.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
That's helpful. Thank you. And then just one more as you look at some of the brand reinvestments you've been making this year, could you just give a little more color, elaborate some, I know you touched on Points West and the expansion of Marlboro Rewards, can you just give a little more color on what those involved or just maybe bring that to life a little bit and help us understand some of what those programs look like?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure, Michael. I think if you would look at the overall brand equity that we've spent on (17:36) as well as product launches. So, from a standpoint of sort of the SKU launches that we had in the beginning part of the year through the third quarter, when you launch something like that, you want to make sure you have the right support in the marketplace and the right call out to consumers. So we have Marlboro Ice, we had Copenhagen Smooth, we had the expansion of Nat's, and so those are product launches that occurred through the first nine months of the year.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
And Michael, specifically on Points West, which I know was only available in Texas so you might not have seen it, essentially, it's a program that drives up engagement between Marlboro consumers and our digital resources, where they can scan or enter unique codes on their pack in order to earn rewards. And we found that it significantly increased consumer engagement with Marlboro.com. And of course, we're going to broaden that to national availability next year, which we think is a big step forward for the engagement with our digital assets.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
And I know that branded merchandise isn't part the rewards program the way I believe it had been long ago, but what are the kind of rewards that the program includes?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
You're exactly right. It's not branded merchandise the way it might have been a couple of decades ago. It includes – we'll make charitable contributions on the behalf of the consumer or they can get a variety of digital rewards, whether it's digital cards or movie passes or those kinds of things. It's a much lower cost way to do it if you use more of a digital approach.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay. Great. Thank you very much.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Chris.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Just had a question for you if I could. Just to understand as you enter the year and you had the tax savings, you're spending quite aggressively behind the business this year, seeing some good success behind Marlboro. I had two questions related to that. One would be that part of your spending plans for the year did include IQOS that obviously has not occurred yet, we're hoping it happens by year end, obviously, is that pushing your spending to (19:55) 2019, I guess is question number one. And then related to that, Marlboro's showing some progress and stabilizing its share, are you satisfied with that performance or would you like to spend more behind that to try and accelerate that rate of market share growth?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I'll take the first part of that Chris. From the standpoint of the investment spending, you're right, we had tax money and investment related to IQOS. We have made some of that investment to be fully prepared for when that's approved by the FDA so that we're ready to launch. From a standpoint of IQOS, you're right, if we don't spend it this year, it certainly pushes into next year and we're excited to spend that money behind the brand and the launch of that. From a standpoint of the impact to the year, I think we've incorporated that in the guidance. We always have a list of investments that we want to make. So you point out one in IQOS, that's a favorable that allowed us to invest in other parts of the business.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
And if I address your question on how we feel about Marlboro performance in the cigarette category, and I would tell you that we are very pleased with the performance across our portfolio in the cigarette category. And I think that we feel that our investments have generated quite nice outcomes this year. And I might refer you to kind of the long-term performance in the PM USA portfolio and I'll take you back to 2011 before the launch of the Marlboro architecture and compare it to the first nine months of 2018. Marlboro's up 0.40 of a share point, the Altria Group share in the discount category is up 1.5 share points, and the total discount category is down 0.60 of a share point. And of course, both Marlboro and our discount brand, L&M, are at much higher margins in 2018 than they were in 2011. So even though there's a little bit of movement a 0.10 or 0.20 (21:47) this year compared to last year, we tend to manage for the long term and feel very good about the performance of the cigarette business.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you. And if I could just ask one quick one in relation to these pod-based products, is that something that you're prepared to seek approval for – to going through the PMTA process to the FDA, or will you wait to do that? Just curious kind of where you stand and your ability to seek that approval.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. I think you're right. What we announced is that we're going to withdraw those products either until we file a PMTA or until FDA takes other action to address youth usage. And that means that one path to get those products or new pod-based products on the market for us is to file a PMTA. I don't know that we're in a position to announce when we expect to file that today, but we really feel like in light of this dramatic increase in youth usage, withdrawing those products until the PMTA is filed is one path forward.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Unknown Speaker:
Hi everyone. This is Jack (23:01) on the line for Judy. So I have a couple of questions just to start off, I was wondering if you could dig a little bit more into your underlying performance of minus 5% versus industry of minus 4.5%, is that slight share loss from down trading, or maybe is that all we're seeing from Kentucky and Oklahoma? So if you could just generally give some color there, that'd be great.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. You're right, the adjusted cigarette industry volume on a year-over-year basis was down 4.5% and our adjusted cigarette volumes were down 5%. I think that is literally just a little bit further decline because on a year-over-year basis, our share was down a bit. But I would point out that our share has been stable since fourth quarter of this year, and we really feel now that we've lapped the impact of the California state excise tax increase that Marlboro's performance is stable and quite satisfying.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. And then briefly just on the ABI dividend cut, like given the volatility in their results and now there's less cash flowing through, how do you assess your investment in ABI going forward, as well as what their payout policy, based on net income, might mean for your share of the dividend going forward?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I think when you look at that, we still think it's a great investment for the long term. From a standpoint of the actual dividend cut that they rebased that they announced today, if you think about where we were last year, the dividends received, 50% of that, it really has no significant impact to our liquidity, our earnings stream or our dividend policy.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay, got you. And then if I could just sneak one more in there. What are your thoughts on margin flow-through this quarter? Is there anything you'd call out in terms of where those expenses were going and what might we expect for the balance of the year on that?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I think when you look at that from a standpoint of where those are going, it's the business investments we've been calling out all year. So you'll recall, we were investing around R&D capabilities and applications that we filed. It's around the product launches and the reinvestment in the brands that have taken place through the first three quarters. As far as the fourth quarter, I can point you to the overall guidance, but we don't guide to margins looking forward.
Unknown Speaker:
All right, great. Thank you so much.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Vivien.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hi, good morning. So I also wanted to talk about volumes. I totally appreciate the incremental headwind from tax and from gas, but if I think back prior to 2010, because we've obviously been kind of in a benign state excise tax environment for much of the last decade, and that's changing and reverting back to kind of normal course. But prior to 2010, state excise taxes, if I recall correctly on a weighted-average basis, used to go up like 8% to 12% a year, and the cigarette industry volume declines were down 3% to 4%, and so that was kind of embedded in the underlying price elasticity. So the thing I'm having a hard time reconciling is your commentary over the past year, the price elasticities are generally holding up, but these incremental excise taxes are driving cigarette volume declines outside of the historical range. So any color you can offer would be helpful there. Thanks.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I think that we continue to have ample evidence that price elasticities have not changed. And you are right that with the exception of the California excise tax increase, which was significant, even the more recent state excise tax increases have not been out of line with the excise tax increases we had in the deep history. So I think it is less – again, setting aside California, it is less increased price elasticity action that is causing the 4.5% decline in the category. And I think it's really – it's a bit of a tick up in the secular decline here over the last quarter, and I think it's related partially to movement into the e-vapor category.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay, that makes sense. Thank you for that. And have you gotten any color from the FDA on how your competitors are perhaps thinking about action in the e-cigarette category?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
We have not. We met with them last week. And we really spent our time talking about our perspective on how to address the issue, and we briefed them on the actions that, at that time, we were considering. And since then, we firmed them up and announced them this morning. We really don't have any visibility into competitor actions or, frankly, what the FDA will ultimately decide to do, ultimately.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Terrific. Thanks very much.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
All right. Thank you. Good morning.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Bonnie.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. My first question is on Marlboro. I guess, I want to hear, in your opinion, would you characterize Marlboro as now stabilized as you set out to achieve or what more would you like to see with the brand?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
I would characterize it as stable. I mean, if you look at it, it has been stabilizing since the third quarter of last year. And I wouldn't draw any alarm from the fact that it was down 0.1 of a share point (28:49) on a sequential basis. I think that the share trend is stabilized and we feel good about the investments we're going to make with the brand going forward.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
And so given those investments, is it fair to assume that acceleration behind Marlboro is something that you're expecting to see? I guess I would answer yes, given you're going to increase investments behind the brand. So we should see Marlboro accelerate in the future. Would that be correct?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I don't know that I would agree with that. I think that – we've been pretty happy with stable performance, and in a business where we're trying to maximize our profitability, I think we're pretty comfortable with stability. And I don't think that we're trying to significantly grow Marlboro share going forward. And, frankly, I think that we did have a bit of a stepped-up investment in Marlboro, among many other things, particularly on the equity side, but we don't feel like an increase in Marlboro investment going forward is necessary to retain that stability.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. That's actually really helpful. And then I have a question on a completely different topic. On cannabis, you've recently commented that you guys might be exploring this category, so maybe first confirm this. And then second, could you share for us why you see this as a potentially interesting opportunity, and then how you might approach the category, what competitive advantages you might have?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I think I can confirm what we said at the Barclays conference, which is that we are exploring opportunities in the category. And we acknowledge that it is currently federally illegal in the U.S., but I think we think it's worth exploring the category because that might change in the future. And I'll hold back on explaining, in more detail, kind of how we view the category because we're relatively early in our exploration.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay, that's fair. And then one final question for me, if I may, it's on your wine business. Constellation has made some comments recently about the state of the industry, noted a lot of challenges especially at the value end of the spectrum, and it's causing them to rethink their strategy and rationalize that into their business. So I'd like to hear from you guys what trends you're seeing in wine broadly, and then how you're positioning yourself to maybe take advantage of ongoing (31:26) trends? And then just comment for us what your outlook is for this business. And in terms of your – or the (31:34) potential for you to add brands to your portfolio, really essentially, what's your long-term strategy there? Thanks.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I think you are right that, I would say, over the last two years, the wine business has gone through some choppy water. First of all, what had been a nice long-term growth rate slowed down. And then secondly, there had been very nice growth in the premium end of the wine business, which was $7 and above, which was where Ste. Michelle had a strong position. And essentially, the strong growth rates actually moved from $7 and above to $10 and above. And as a result of that, I think not only our business, but many of the other wine businesses, are investing to reposition their portfolios to respond to that consumer activity. And that's part of what drove weaker performance this year than we've had in the long term past. We are confident that the wine team is increasing investment and innovation in the $10 and above category, so we think we'll get the performance strengthened next year. But it is clearly not the same favorable category dynamics that we saw two or three years ago. I would also tell you that with regard to the wine business, it's a nice business for us. Historically, it's been a nice contributor to our growth, but we do view it as a non-core business where we're not going to make significant investments to add to that portfolio.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Yeah. Good morning, everyone. Just...
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
...a quick question on – good morning, Howard – just a quick question on your commentary regarding IQOS that you made in your prepared remarks, you suggested that you're expecting to get approved by the end of the year. And I'm just curious on, in your meetings with FDA, was there something specifically said? Because we've been waiting for quite some time for this approval to happen, so just wanted to get some more clarity around that.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think what I said was I was hopeful that it would be approved by the end of the year. I have to tell you that, as you know, I've been rather patient knowing that the FDA is reviewing this heated tobacco application in a category that's relatively new to them, but I really feel like, given the strength of the PMI application and the passage of time, that the answer should be due here in the near term. But of course, as you know, we're already beyond sort of the guidance the FDA gave on how quickly they'd respond. So I think it's really hard to pin down exactly when that would come out. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if it came out between now and the end of the year. I think that the passage of time says that it's got to be getting ready to get an answer. We have not gotten any specific information from the FDA that something would come out in the near term, but I wouldn't necessarily expect that. Normally, when FDA is getting ready to act, you'd hear about it because they tell you the definitive response.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks. Very helpful, Howard. And then the other question just on the category growth – or decline rates, you have a situation where it's a little bit above the normalized trend, but the pricing realization that's been taken in the industry is also higher than what we've normally seen over the last, let's call it, 18 months. So I was wondering if maybe you can comment on that. Do you think there's some increasing kind of deceleration in the category just because the pricing has been higher than normal?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. That probably has a small impact given the price elasticity impact of pricing. But I think it's probably a short-term elevation of the secular decline rate that's probably the bigger driver of it being 4.5% rather than the 3% to 4%. But I think you do point out something that I think is – that I believe, which is that I think we have a number of levers to pull in order to continue to drive nice business performance from PM USA even if this elevated decline rate of the category persists for a few more quarters or into the future.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thanks, Howard.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi. Steve.
Stephen Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Hello. I guess, as we think more about the voluntary actions you took today, just based on your conversations – and I know you don't know – but do you see this conceivably as a kind of template that the FDA itself might follow in terms of incremental regulation on the e-vapor market, as we think about the next few months? And then secondarily, related, do you see it at all as conceivable that the FDA might also consider pulling forward the revised product application deadline timeframe for e-vapor products from now, it is August 2022, to an earlier date? And if they did that, would you be in a position to comply?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I have to tell you, we had a good meeting with the FDA last week, and I think we spent quite a bit of time talking about the actions that we were thinking about taking. But I don't know that we have any deeper perspective on what the FDA is ultimately going to do, then I think the rest of the community has been listening to pretty significant comments that FDA has made. So I don't know that we know exactly what actions they're going to take. I would tell you that I am convinced that they are going to take action to address the increase in youth usage and drive it down. I'm not sure exactly how, but I think they're committed to doing that. And frankly, the actions we took were the actions that we thought we could take that would have the biggest impact on addressing the increased use of e-vapor products by youth. Because we think that the long-term opportunity that e-vapor products present to converting adult cigarette smokers is potentially at risk if we don't address this youth issue. And we wanted to make a significant contribution to addressing the issue, and I think FDA is going to help address it as well.
Stephen Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you. I guess, maybe following up a little bit, the incremental step up in the secular decline rate that you just called out earlier being driven by e-vapor, maybe around about 1 point or so, which is something we agree with. As you look forward, do you think this is more – do you consider this more of a one-time step up? Maybe even it sounds like perhaps even a temporary step up, the way you're talking about it. But do you see that as more transient or fixed in nature? Or do you see that as something that continues to accelerate negatively if e-vapor penetration amongst adult tobacco consumers continues to grow?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I don't think I gave an estimate of the actual numerical contribution of increased growth of e-vapor to the decline rate in cigarettes. But I would agree with you that I think that as you look at the decline rate of 4.5%, which is outside the 3% to 4% long-term range, I do think that probably two of the drivers of that are cigarette smokers increasingly trying e-vapor and now, I think also probably the increasing gas prices, most recently, is probably another contributor. I think it's hard to tell how long it's going to persist. What we do know is that the stepped-up growth in e-vapor has been with us for the last, at least, four quarters, and over those four quarters, the rate of decline has been about 4.5%. But we also know that both gas prices and growth in e-vapor has been with us before, and then it significantly moderated, and I think that's had impact on the decline rate of the cigarette category. So I think we're going to have to wait and see what happens with both gas prices on a relative basis and whether or not the growth rate of e-vapor slows down.
Stephen Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, great. If I could squeeze in one more. The incremental data you provided today and the earlier comments you made on the discount portion of the category was definitely useful. I guess, my question around that is do we take that data and your comments as glass half full or glass half empty? In other words, by noting that, especially deep discount share of the category overall has been higher in the past, is that more to say that you think it's relatively stable and sort of the risk of discount proliferation is contained? Or is it more to be read that you're saying there's a precedent for it to go higher and it likely will? Just want to make sure I understand what you're trying to communicate.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. We shared the data we did on the discount category because it's been the subject of a lot of discussion over the last three or four months. And I felt like some of our investors felt like there was something to be alarmed about. I have to tell you, we don't feel there's anything to be alarmed about and we provided this data to reinforce that belief. And I would just point out that over the last three periods, 2016, 2017 and 2018 year-to-date, the overall discount category has been stable, and it's much lower than it has been for the last five or six or seven years. When you think about a consumer packaged goods category that has those kinds of discount fundamentals, that's a really good trend, in my opinion. Now I know it's a little bit complicated because you've seen the deep discount portion of that up maybe a little more than 1 share point since 2011, 2012. And I think that was causing a bit of alarm from some folks. But I have to tell you, when you look at the fact that gas prices are back above year-ago levels, and I don't think that given the strong economy that most adult cigarette consumers are at all impacted in their brand choice because of that. But there is a relatively small group of consumers that when it costs them $10 more to gas up their car, they may be very well be deciding to go in and save by buying deep discount rather than branded discount. And given the nice margin expansion we've had on branded discount and the fact that discount doesn't seem to be interacting with premium, we think that's a natural outcome of the environment. And we don't find it alarming, and we don't feel a need to invest to try and address it.
Stephen Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Perfect. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.
Unknown Speaker:
Hi, good morning. This is Rose (43:12) on for Pam. Appreciate the detail you've given with regard to the volume levels, even after removing the pod-based products and then discontinuing some flavors. If you could just give us a sense for how much of an impact you anticipate on revenue and profitability from removing these products.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes, go ahead, Billy.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, I think from a standpoint of the actual impact, I think it's clearly immaterial, I'm not going to quote numbers here. When you think about the standpoint of the pod-based, we were in the launch of those products, and Apex was available through e-commerce. We think the way – taking the proactive approach, allows us to sell through those products in the marketplace and have an orderly transition with withdrawal of those products from the marketplace.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay, thanks. And just to clarify, is this sort of removal of all flavored products in e-vapor or is it strictly the cig-a-likes?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. Our action results in us removing, for our pod products, we're going to remove the whole branded pod business. With regard to our cig-a-like products, most of our volume is in tobacco flavored menthol or mint products, which we think are particularly appealing to adult cigarette smokers that are moving into our cig-a-like e-vapor products, those will stay on the market. And then we had other flavors that were not brown or green, I guess, you would say, that we're going to remove pending a PMTA or other action to addresses the youth increase in e-vapor.
Unknown Speaker:
That's really helpful, thank you. And if I can just sneak one more in there. You talked about wanting to be proactive about addressing the youth issue, just how much of this decision was driven by the FDA's request versus your actions to proactively volunteer to take these products off the market?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. Our announcement is a set of actions that we came into the FDA contemplating. And I think when we met with FDA, when we emerged from the meeting, we were more certain that this was the right thing to do. But I think if there's any further action on the part of the FDA, we'll certainly take a look at whether or not there's more we should do, but we felt like this was a good first step.
Unknown Speaker:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Thank you very much. I have a couple of questions. First of all, in answer to Bonnie Herzog, you said on Marlboro, you didn't feel you needed to increase investment to maintain share. I suppose the other question is if you were to cut your equity investment in Marlboro, do you think that would result in a decrease in market share, or do you think the equity is sufficiently strong you could do that cutting (46:32) within reason and still hold share? So that's my first question.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I don't know that I think about it that way. I think we feel – we make a variety of decisions around promotional investments, pricing and equity investments at any given year, and I think that our focus is on always maintaining four elements with regard to Marlboro. We want to make sure we have stable overall share, we want to make sure we continue to have a strong equity, we want to make sure that we have good demographics, and we want to grow the profitability. And we feel like we're having success against those four things next year and we think we're well equipped to do that in the future. I think the question about brand equity, I think you can always cut brand equity in the short run to save money, but in the long run, it catches up with you. So we feel like the long-term approach we've had with Marlboro makes sense and we feel like it's well positioned to be able to deliver against that in the future.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you very much. And then I've got a question on your non-Marlboro portfolio. Now I know sequentially, quarter-on-quarter, it was flat this quarter, which I was quite impressed a bit by because this has been declining, I think, for previous three quarters. And at the same time it's interesting that deep discount also grew. So, on the one hand, you got deep discount growing 20 bps this quarter. But on the other hand, your portfolio was stable. And I was just wondering if you've taken any action to allow you to move from a declining trend to a flat trend.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I think it's tough to call it a trend, Adam, in the short term, when you're looking at sequential quarter-to-quarter. I think to call it a trend, we would look over a longer period of time but certainly, we've become more effective and efficient with the way we allocate our resources across those other brands. And you recall as well that we launched Nat's in the smokeable segment and expanded that to basically the western part of the U.S. So we think we're seeing the benefit of that as well.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
And can you just be a little bit more specific on the other actions? I get the Nat's thing that you might have taken again, and you said you're a little bit efficient on your portfolio recently.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I think we sharpened our tools from a standpoint of allocating resources to where they have the greatest impact and became more efficient with those resources around those other portfolio brands including L&M. And so with those tools and the sharp end of the (49:14) analytics around that, we're able to have a greater impact with even the same resources or less.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
I would also tell you, Adam, that when you look at, for instance, some of our other premium brands, like Virginia Slims or Parliament, I think we are at the stage where we have a very loyal core smoker base that chooses those brands. And I think that's part of the reason why you might see a moderation in the decline rate.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you. And then my final question is, coming back to this long-term chart you gave us on the deep discounts and branded discounts, and you said you were very comfortable with where things are now, it's not causing you really much concern. Is there any level of deep discount that would start to concern you? I mean, if you got to back to 9%, would that be an issue for you, do you think?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, I have to tell you that we are primarily focused on our premium portfolio, and I think that what would concern us would be a dramatic increase in growth of the overall discount category that would impact our premium brands. I think if the trend growth of deep discount continued to grow a bit more, I think as long as our Marlboro portfolio is performing well and we were getting the kind of profit growth we wanted, I don't think that would be particularly alarming. In the past, we have had quite nice business performance at PM USA with a discount share that's significantly lower than today. So we know that formula works. Although I have to tell you that I'm delighted – and this is a shout-out to the L&M brand management team, I'm delighted with the success we've had with L&M over the last five or six years, it's got strong equity. But one of the reasons I'm delighted about it is not only has it grown its share and grown its margin, but it's done it, in my opinion, without taking share away from Marlboro.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay, thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Jaffray.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Thanks. I have just two quick ones. I know the approval from the FDA hasn't come yet, but the HeatSticks would have Marlboro branding, if it is approved and gets into the market, how do you think about your Marlboro share objectives and HeatSticks, would that be considered a part of it?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think the way we'll measure it is, is we will distinguish between our cigarette volumes and cigarette share versus our HeatStick volume and share. So we'll provide clarity as to which is heated tobacco products versus traditional cigarettes.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay. And again, I'm recognizing it's not approved yet, but looking ahead just a bit, if you got the approval, it would be on an earlier generation of the device. Can you just speak to the FDA process and what you would have to do to be able to get a newer device subsequently launched? Is the SE application process an option that's available there, or does it even entirely new PMTA?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
No, I don't think it needs an entirely new PMTA. I think we believe that we can bridge the information in the original application to the new product, particularly given that some of the changes between the current device and HeatSticks versus the one that we filed on, they don't tend to change the vapor, it's just a better piece of hardware. And we are working with PMI on doing that bridging work and we'll file that when we get that done.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jennifer Maloney of The Wall Street Journal.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Jennifer.
Jennifer Maloney - The Wall Street Journal:
Hi. How are you?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good.
Jennifer Maloney - The Wall Street Journal:
I'm wondering if you could clarify what you mean in your letter to the FDA when you support user fees for e-vapor products?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. The products in the tobacco category that are regulated by the Food and Drug Administration require the manufacturers of certain products to make payments to fund the cost of FDA regulation. And I think because the initial set of products was on the minds (53:59) when the legislation was passed, even though there are now significant numbers of e-vapor products on the market, they do not pay into the FDA to support the cost of regulation. And we think as long as we're opening up the legislation, it's time to update that and have everybody pay their fair share.
Jennifer Maloney - The Wall Street Journal:
Okay. Thanks. That's helpful. Also wonder what you think of Commissioner Gottlieb's indications over the past couple of weeks that he may support restricting online sales of e-cigarettes or restricting sales of e-cigarettes through vape shops, in other words, banning their sale in convenience stores and gas stations.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I would tell you that I know that whatever action the FDA takes is going to be based on science and evidence and data, and it was not intuitive to me when he talked about taking the products out of convenience stores, but I'm reserving judgment here until we understand what data he has. And I think there's been a lot said and from that I have concluded that the FDA is going to take action to address this youth epidemic, but I think we're going to have to wait until they communicate their comprehensive plan to really understand exactly what they're going to do.
Jennifer Maloney - The Wall Street Journal:
Okay. Thanks for your help.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Marshall, for closing comments.
Bill Marshall - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you all for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
William Marshall - Altria Client Services Inc Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc. William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co. Pamela F. Kaufman - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd. Steve Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Petros Voulgaris - Goldman Sachs
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2018 second quarter earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
William Marshall - Altria Client Services Inc:
Thank you, Laurie. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Howard Willard, Altria's CEO, and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO, to discuss Altria's 2018 second quarter and first half business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results, which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2017. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements, and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release. With that, I'll turn the call over to Howard.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. We continued our strong start to the year with adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 18.8% in the second quarter. Our core tobacco businesses performed well, as they continued to make strategic investments in support of their long-term objectives. Of course, our results benefited from a lower corporate tax rate. We continued to reward shareholders in the quarter by paying over $1.3 billion in dividends and repurchasing approximately $437 million in shares. This is a dynamic time in the tobacco industry, and just as we lead in traditional tobacco products, we intend to lead in offering adult smokers more choices with innovative reduced-risk products. In May, we announced a new corporate structure to maximize our core tobacco businesses and accelerate our innovation pipeline. We believe that our new structure will enhance our ability to drive the change necessary for us to continue our success in the future. Let's move now to our operating segments. Our strategy in the smokeable products segment remains to maximize income while maintaining momentum on Marlboro and Black & Mild over time. So far in 2018, we are pleased with the performance of the smokeable products segment. Adjusted operating companies income declined 2.8% in the second quarter and 2.4% in the first half, as expected, given our investments. PM USA entered the year focused on stabilizing Marlboro with investments in product expansions, packaging innovations, and brand equity. We are encouraged with our progress in the first half, as Marlboro market share increased 0.1 share point to 43.2% from the fourth quarter of 2017. PM USA is successfully executing its strategy, which resulted in strong smokeable segment net price realization of 6.6% and 5.6% in the second quarter and first half respectively. We estimate that when adjusted for the significant trade inventory movements, the smokeable segment's cigarette volumes declined an estimated 5% in the second quarter compared to an estimated industry rate of decline of 3.5%. This is consistent with our view that industry volume declines would moderate as the effects of the California SET were fully lapped. While industry performance may be volatile on a quarterly basis, over the past four quarters the industry's rate of decline was approximately 4%, consistent with the historical long-term decline rate of 3% to 4%. We believe the adult tobacco consumers' economic situation remains positive, and we continue to closely watch the many economic factors, including gas prices and wage growth, that could affect their spending habits. In the smokeless products segment, USSTC delivered adjusted operating companies income growth of 3.5% in the second quarter and 13.5% in the first half. In the first half, business fundamentals were quite robust, with strong profit growth and net price realization. Copenhagen and Skoal combined gained 0.2 share point from the fourth quarter of 2017. As for volume, USSTC believes that smokeless industry volume growth continues to be affected by adult tobacco consumers moving among tobacco product categories. USSTC estimates that over the past six months, the smokeless products segment adjusted shipment volume declined an estimated 1.5% and smokeless industry volume declined an estimated 1%. You'll recall USSTC submitted its modified risk tobacco product application for Copenhagen Snuff in March, and earlier this month USSTC submitted premarket tobacco applications for VERVE Discs and Chews, innovative oral tobacco products that offer adult smokers a discrete choice to get tobacco enjoyment almost anywhere when smoking is not an option. In e-vapor, Nu Mark grew volume by approximately 16% in the quarter, and 23% for the first half, primarily driven by expanded distribution. Most recently, Nu Mark expanded MarkTen Elite from over 6,000 stores in the first quarter to more than 23,000 stores by the end of the second quarter. In heated tobacco, PM USA's initial lead market plans are ready. And upon FDA authorization, PM USA can begin importing IQOS into the U.S. While this will create a two to three-month period between FDA authorization and availability at retail, PM USA will take advantage of that time to activate its marketing plan, which will use a range of tools to build adult smoker awareness and demand in the lead market while gaining key insights for subsequent market expansion. Now, a brief update on regulatory items. You'll recall that in the first quarter, the FDA published three advanced notices of proposed rulemaking. Earlier this month, we submitted our comments on each of these ANPRMs, and they're available for review on altria.com. As we've said before, we believe we're in the early stages of a long-term process in which we will remain actively engaged. In summary, we had a great first half of the year and believe we are well-positioned for the second half. We remain positive on our core tobacco business fundamentals and believe macroeconomic factors remain supportive of adult tobacco consumers. And we continue to make strategic investments to support long-term strength in our core tobacco businesses and our pursuit of leadership in innovative products. In light of a strong first half and continued confidence in our core tobacco businesses, earlier this morning we tightened our guidance, raising the lower end of our full-year 2018 adjusted diluted EPS guidance range, which is now $3.94 to $4.03, representing a growth rate of 16% to 19% from 2017. I'll now turn it over to Billy to provide more detail on our quarterly performance.
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Howard, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin with our smokeable products segment. In the second quarter, adjusted OCI decreased 2.8% and adjusted OCI margins increased 1.1 percentage points to 52.6%. Results were driven by lower cigarette volume, partially offset by higher pricing and lower promotional investments. Reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 10.8% in the quarter, permanently driven by a large reduction in trade inventories. As you can see in our housekeeping items, the trade entered the second quarter with significantly higher cigarette inventories than it did last year. Over the course of the quarter, wholesalers depleted PM USA inventories by an estimated 1.6 billion units, compared to a build of 600 million units in the year ago quarter. While there can be volatility quarter to quarter, inventory movements typically smooth out over time. Looking ahead, we are monitoring the effects on the cigarette category from the excise tax increases in Kentucky and Oklahoma, which each went into effect on July 1. On a combined basis, these two states account for roughly 5% of U.S. cigarette industry volume, and Marlboro over-indexes with retail share, exceeding 50% in both states. As Howard mentioned, Marlboro's retail share was up a tenth of a share point from the fourth quarter of 2017. And we believe PM USA's investments in the first half have helped stabilize Marlboro. For example, in the first quarter, PM USA expanded Marlboro Ice nationally. We're encouraged by performance in the menthol segment. PM USA is pursuing options to adopt Marlboro Ice's innovative resale pack on other offerings in its portfolio. Additionally, Marlboro's Points West rewards program in Texas continued its early success by increasing Marlboro's digital engagement with adult smokers. Specifically, unique logins on Marlboro.com increased over 65% year-over-year in the State of Texas. Points West continues to exceed expectations, and we believe it will grow equity and loyalty among adult smokers. In the super-premium tobacco and water segment, Nat Sherman continues to build awareness and trial in Colorado, and we remain pleased with its performance. As a result, Nat Sherman expanded Nat's into 13 additional states across the Western U.S. in mid-June. In cigars, the business continues to perform well, as reported shipment volume grew 2.7% in the second quarter and 2.8% for the first half. Turning to our smokeless products segment, in the second quarter, USSTC grew adjusted OCI 3.5%, and adjusted OCI margins expanded 0.5 percentage points to 69.9%. These results were primarily driven by higher pricing, partially offset by lower volume. In the second quarter, USSTC's retail share declined two-tenths of a share point. Copenhagen's retail share remained unchanged at 34.3%, and Skoal's retail share declined 0.4 share points to 16.4%. Turning to our alcohol assets, Ste. Michelle grew adjusted OCI 8% in the second quarter, driven by higher volume and favorable mix, partially offset by higher marketing and sales expenses. In beer, adjusted earnings from our equity investment in AB InBev were $156 million in the second quarter, which reflects Altria's share of AB InBev's first quarter results. We continued to reward shareholders by returning significant cash to them through dividends and share repurchases. In the second quarter and first half of 2018, we paid dividends to shareholders of $1.3 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively. Altria's current annualized dividend rate of $2.80 per share represents an annualized dividend yield of 4.9% as of July 20, 2018, which compares to a 2.9% yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. We also repurchased approximately 7.6 million shares in the quarter at an average share price of $57.65 for a total cost of approximately $437 million. Through the first half of 2018, we repurchased approximately 15.6 million shares for a total cost of $950 million. In May, the board authorized a $1 billion expansion to the share repurchase program, and at the end of the second quarter, we had slightly more than $1 billion remaining in the current $2 billion repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of the second quarter of 2019. With that, we'll wrap up, and Howard and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory, and other housekeeping items. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Investors, analysts, and media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you, good morning.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. I have a question on Marlboro. I guess I was hoping you could drill down a bit further to help us understand if some of the changes you made in the market earlier this year in terms of your promotional programs behind the brand are working. And then it appears there are some signs of stabilization already, but what's your outlook for the remainder of the year for the brand? And then do you guys have anything else in the pipeline to further improve the equity?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I think if you look at the investments we made in the first half of this year behind Marlboro, probably the most significant one was the launch of Marlboro Ice, with an innovative package design. And that was launched at the Marlboro full price, although with some promotional offerings to drive trial. In addition to that, we've made some adjustments to our trade programs and improved the visibility of the brand at retail. So, I think we were quite pleased to see Marlboro up a tenth in the first half compared to fourth quarter, and we continue to believe we'll have plenty of activity in the second half of the year to continue with that stable to up trend on Marlboro.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
And then just a quick follow-on to that, in terms of the spending levels, Howard, how should we think about that just in terms of what you guys have got behind the brand in the first half? Do you expect those spending levels to ease as we head into the second half of this year? Or will they stay elevated?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, I think as we look at the investments we've made behind the brand, I think we communicated that we plan to invest about a third of the tax reform benefit this year in a variety of investments, many of those in the innovative products segment, but certainly Marlboro received some of those investments. And we really expect those to roll out throughout the year. One thing I would point out though is that if you look at price realization on the smokeable segment in the first half, price realization was up about 5.6%. So, we had strong pricing, and I think that reflects the fact that although there was some trial offering on Marlboro Ice, overall, the price trend on Marlboro in the first half was quite positive.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. And then switching over to IQOS, and just maybe any update on timing of approval. I know you touched on this, but it just seems like you might think it could be any day now based on your remarks. And I guess I'm also suggesting this, and I'm aware that you guys have been certainly trying to secure additional shelf space at retail. So, I'd like to hear it from you how you think these efforts have gone, and then are you getting the space you need for IQOS? And has it been mainly incremental? And then finally on this topic, I just would like to hear how you guys are thinking about the rollout of IQOS, now that BAT just received substantial equivalent approval from the FDA for their Eclipse heat-not-burn product. So, just wondering how you think about the positioning of IQOS relative to that brand, and are you concerned at all that IQOS may lose its first-mover advantage?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I'll start off with the fact that we have been ready for quite some time to launch IQOS into the U.S. market, and we are really just waiting for FDA approval. And as is often the case with FDA, they move at their own pace. So, I don't know that we can make a good forecast of that, but we certainly have taken advantage of the time we've had to make sure that we've got a very solid launch plan for IQOS in the U.S. market. We've been learning from all of the experiences that PMI has had overseas, and we will be ready with a very compelling marketing offering in the marketplace. You are right that we have been contracting to gain additional space for innovative products at retail. And certainly that space would be available for IQOS, for e-vapor, and for a range of other innovative products we're bringing to the marketplace. We think that would give us plenty of room to display the portfolio of products that we have in the marketplace, and we've been quite pleased with our success in securing that space. I did read in the BAT announcement about the SE they got on what I guess is an improved version of the Reynolds product. And I think in some respects, probably there's some benefit to having a number of different heated tobacco products in the market. And I have to tell you, given the success that the IQOS heat-not-burn format has had around the world, I'm happy to compete in the market with IQOS against that BAT product. And we're just eager for the opportunity to begin marketing.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay, thanks, and then just one final quick question for me on your guidance. The revised guidance certainly suggests you have increased visibility for the year, but I'm curious if you still expect that your EPS growth rates in FY 2019 and 2020 will be above your long-term 7% to 9% EPS growth aspirations, as you stated earlier this year. Thanks.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
At this point, there's no change to that expectation.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Jaffray.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Good morning.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Michael.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Could you just give us an update on any potential tariff impact, either on your vapor products or, obviously IQOS isn't yet approved for launch. Would there be anything on the devices or potentially the Heatsticks there that we should have in mind?
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Michael. From a tariff impact, we've had minor impacts from tariffs. I would call it clearly immaterial. We are monitoring to see if it's going to expand to any of the other categories, some of those that you mentioned, but we don't see any expectations at this point. So really, from a tariff to date, it's very immaterial to our business.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay, great, thanks. And on the state settlements, I just want to make sure I understand a couple things correctly. It looks like you're excluding those benefits from your adjusted earnings, but you're getting the cash. Roughly it seems like around $225 million. Is that the correct starting point?
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
You're in the right range there, Michael. We try to exclude the benefits that were related to previous years, and so that's the exclusion you see between adjusted and reported earnings.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
And I know there are quite a few states in there, and they may vary one to another. But does that close the books on all of those, or do those states still have any disputed amounts that could potentially lead to future additional settlements?
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
That catches us up-to-date, Michael, for those that we've settled with. So that takes the total to, if you include states and territories, to 36. Arbitration process has started for those that are non-settling states, but there would be additional years potential for those that have settled thus far.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay, great. Thanks. And then just a last one, could you give any sense of now at the beginning of this quarter, we had fully lapped the California tax hike. Can you give any sense of just sequential momentum throughout the quarter, or maybe how the volume trajectory has been progressing and just what it may look like today?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I think you're probably referencing that the cigarette category decline rate in the first quarter was about 5.5% on an adjusted basis for the industry, and in the second quarter, it was 3.5%. I think probably the biggest driver of that was, as you said, we lapped the California state excise tax increase. And I think that this was a fairly solid trend through the second quarter, and I think it was to be expected, although it's a bit complex because you've got the lapping of the California state excise tax increase. You've got generally a positive environment for adult tobacco consumers, but you do have gas prices up over 10%. And then you've got growth in the e-vapor category. But I think the best way to look at the overall impact of that is to look at the adjusted 3.5% decline number.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
That's helpful. Just to clarify, within the quarter, was there any notable sequential evolution, or was it roughly steady close to that 3.5%?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
I don't know that we pay that close attention to week-to-week variations, but I think the 3.5% down for the quarter I think represented the trend well from the second quarter to the first.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Thank you very much.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Pamela.
Pamela F. Kaufman - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi, thanks for the question. I was wondering if you can talk about the acceleration in the e-cig category, and to what extent you think that JUUL's growth is coming from cigarette volumes. BAT mentioned today that they think there was around a 40 basis point impact to industry volumes from e-vapor in the first half. What's your estimate, and do you think that this impact is going to grow?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I don't know that we have the information to make that precise a calculation. But clearly in mainstream retail channels, the e-vapor category has returned to very strong growth. I think what makes it a bigger challenge to gauge its impact on the cigarette category is that, unlike most of the other tobacco product categories, most of the volume in the e-vapor category falls in vape stores and on e-commerce that are less well measured. And so I think that some of the growth in mainstream retail channels likely represents cannibalization in those other channels. And then I think the second impact or the second thing to consider is that as part of the secular decline rate that makes up this long-term 3% to 4% decline, we normally view the secular decline rate as a 2% to 3% decline. That includes consumers that moved to other tobacco categories from cigarettes. It includes people that stopped tobacco products altogether, and it includes changes in their consumption in number of sticks per day. So, there's always a certain amount of movement between categories in that secular decline rate. And so, the real question here is, is there an abnormal amount of impact on the secular decline rate? And I think given the 3.5% decline for the cigarette category in the second quarter, I think it seems to be covered by that long-term decline trend.
Pamela F. Kaufman - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay, thank you. And just another question, I was wondering, what the disconnect is between what we're seeing in measured channel data, where Altria's volumes and market share are outperforming the industry versus what we are seeing in your reported results? Does that imply that we're seeing elevated weakness in non-measured channels that's contributing to the higher declines in your reported numbers?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think the best way to judge the way our business is performing over time is to rely on the IRI numbers that we generate and share in our quarterly earnings release. We have a custom IRI panel that is designed to accurately predict and project activity in any given quarter in mainstream retail channels. And of course, we go to great care to make sure that IRI has access to the new products we put in the market, any promotional activity. So, I think that's the best read. I know that there are some less complete services that others look at, but I think when we looked at it this quarter, certainly there are always differences. And frankly, sometimes those differences benefit the trends for our business, sometimes they don't. But I think our view is the best gauge of the success of our business is what we report in our quarterly earnings release, and we go to great care to make sure the year-over-year comparisons are fair.
Pamela F. Kaufman - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi, good morning.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. First I have a question, Howard, in relation to the inventory movements. I feel compelled to ask about that at least. But I know it's going to happen from quarter-to-quarter. I'm just curious, as you see inventory levels now, do you regard them to be at the right levels, if you will? They obviously are below the year ago. You had a larger decline than the category overall. So, I'm just curious if you could characterize the inventory levels overall?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
I'll turn that over to Billy.
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, Chris, you're right. I think it was exacerbated in the second quarter. As I mentioned, we saw depletions of 1.6 billion in the second quarter of 2018, and the opposite was taking place in 2017. They built inventories by 600 million. I think there are a number of different strategies that wholesalers and retailers use to manage their inventories. So that causes, to your point, distortions in the short-term. I think if you look over a longer-term period, you'll see that inventories are generally in line with consumer consumption. And so, I would encourage us to look over a longer period of time to really gauge where inventories are. You're right. Inventories are at the lower end as we ended the second quarter.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you. And then just a question for you on that, and you'd given some information in your release about the deep discount share growing and discount overall though, just growing modestly. It seems like L&M is getting caught up in that and then performed poorly in the quarter. I just was curious how you're addressing that. If there's any actions you've taken to address that shift in share amongst the discount segment?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I would say we are addressing that L&M weakness in a measured way. I think it's helpful actually to go back and look at the discount category trends over a longer period of time, and I went back to 2011, which is the year before we launched the new Marlboro architecture. And if you look at first half trends in the discount category from 2011 to today, we've had growth of over a share point in our discount share, and that was really all driven by L&M. And the discount category is down over a share point over that period of time. What has happened more recently is that the overall discount category, I would say is stable. If you wanted to find a tick-up, it's up a tenth in the first half of this year compared to 2017, but I don't think that's a significant move. Really, the only news you can find I think in the discount category is that during that time period, branded discount gave up four-tenths and deep discount picked up five-tenths. And certainly, some of that share that branded discount loss came from L&M in this very short-term period. But I think to understand that, you have to consider two things, which is the margins on the branded discount products, which continue to make up the majority of the share in discount, have improved quite a bit since 2011, which is a real positive. And then secondly, while the economic situation is generally positive for adult tobacco consumers, it is being somewhat unevenly distributed, and I think there are some consumers that continue to be under economic pressure. And it's not surprising that a few of them are finding value in the deep discount, cheapest cigarettes in the store. I think our view is that first and foremost, we're pleased that the overall category is flat and it's healthy for premium brands, given our focus on Marlboro and on Nat's. And then secondly, I think we like the margin on L&M. So, we'll monitor it, but I don't think there's any significant action we feel is necessary. We're doing it more by making small adjustments on a state by state basis.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you for that color.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hi, good morning.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Vivien.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
So, following up on that theme, it's interesting that the cigarette industry volume declines are normal I think. Very encouraging to see that. That said, like you are seeing the deterioration in MST. So, is it your view that there's more kind of cross-elasticity of demand between some traditional tobacco categories relative to others? I'm just still trying to make sense of those diverging trends. Thanks.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think you are right. You used to have a smokeless segment that was growing, call it 4% to 5%, and now the category is flat to slightly down. I think probably the first driver of that is that there has been more price increase in the category over the last couple of years than there was previously. And just like there's a price elasticity in cigarettes, there also is in smokeless. So, that is certainly one driver. But then I would say the second driver, I think, is that if you go back five or six years, I think that the primary beneficiary of adult cigarette smokers moving out of cigarettes to alternative products was probably the smokeless category. And I think now that you have the e-vapor category that's got some new product options and is back in growth, I think that category potentially is intercepting some consumers that, in the past, would have gone to smokeless.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Perfect, that's helpful. Thank you. And I heard your message on the IRI, but unfortunately, I subscribe to Nielsen. And so, when we're looking at the category price elasticity on combustible cigarettes, that data looks like it's deteriorating. So, can you comment on what you've been seeing in terms of cigarette price elasticities? Thanks.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I'll hand it over to Billy, who I think is familiar with the number. And it sounds like you may be actually referencing relative pricing and mix, but we can certainly address any question about elasticity as well.
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, just to answer your question on elasticity right away, we see it's unchanged at this point. It's the negative 0.3 that we've quoted for quite a while, and that's been in place for well over 10 years. I think when you look at retail, there are a number of things that are moving price at retail. You have excise taxes in the prior period that don't repeat in this period. I think sample differences can cause that. So, we try to go right to the – our detailed information, and we're seeing it hold at negative 0.3.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
That's great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, everyone. The question is on just helping dissect the delta between the Marlboro volume declines and the industry volume declines. Just trying to get better perspective on what you think is driving that disconnect, just so we can understand kind of the future and forward drivers. That's the first question.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean I think the explanation of the category being down on an adjusted basis 3.5% and us being down more than that is quite simply the fact that on a year-over-year basis, second quarter this year compared to last year, Marlboro did lose some share. But when you look at our share trends in the first half compared to fourth quarter, we're up a tenth of a share point. And I think if you run the math, the share difference really explains the difference between our smokeable segment's decline rate versus the adjusted number for the industry.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
That's a fair point, Howard. I'm just trying to understand, like was it the excise taxes, I mean, as you kind of look at the business and try to understand why the share losses occurred? That's what I'm trying to get at just some of the drivers? Was it the new excise taxes? Are you more sensitive to gas prices than maybe some of your competitors? I'm just trying to get a little bit more context around that.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I'm sorry. I understand your question now. I think if you look at last year, after a number of years of modest positive share growth, Marlboro's share had a tough time last year. And I think there were really two primary drivers of that. The first was the California state excise tax increase. And while that impacted all of the premium brands and all the brands in the market, it was a large excise tax increase at $2, and it was in a geography, where Marlboro was significantly overdeveloped. So, it had a greater impact on Marlboro, which essentially impacted Marlboro's share trend last year. And then the second driver of that was that we had a heightened level of competitive activity and competitive spending last year that we decided to be more restrained in responding to, with the knowledge that we knew we had a good first half and full year plan for this year. So, we gave up some share last year. You'll recall that while we gave up some share, we had quite strong profit growth and price realization in the smokeable segment, and essentially, we decided to really make our investments to stabilize Marlboro in the first half, which we're pleased has come through.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks, Howard, for that. And then the second question, just maybe you can give us an update on some of the e-vapor products. I know you said it grew 16%, but just trying to get an understanding of maybe some of the consumer metrics behind MarkTen Bold and MarkTen Elite.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I think there's some insight in the way you asked the question. If you look at it, the primary products that we have in distribution at retail in large numbers of stores are the Original MarkTen, the MarkTen Bold product with nicotine salts, and then MarkTen Elite. The drivers of the growth in second quarter and first half was MarkTen Bold and MarkTen Elite. So those products are getting traction with consumers, albeit in the shadow of a product that's growing much more quickly. And then we continue to focus on some of the other products in our pipeline, but they are not distributed in retail in any significant numbers.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thanks, Howard.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you, good morning.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Judy.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
So I wanted to go back to the e-vapor category and just wanted to get your assessment in terms of what you're seeing from JUUL, because I guess in the past when you talked about the brand leadership in that category, you've talked about how that cycle is pretty short. You've got new product coming into the category, and that leadership changes pretty quickly. Clearly, that brand has maintained very strong momentum, getting distribution gains as well, and velocity is still very high. So I'm just wondering, from your perspective, how would you characterize that brand's leadership and the sustainability of that leadership versus some of the prior products in that category? And what data points would you be watching to gauge how much it's impacting the Marlboro's performance or just the combustible business in general?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. There's no question JUUL has had a strong performance with regard to volume growth in mainstream retail channels in the first half, and you are right that this has happened before. I'd reference back to – I call this the third growth phase of e-vapor in the U.S. The first growth phase was in 2013 and the second was in 2014. Both of those growth phases were driven by new, different products being offered into the market, and they went through a period of very strong trial, and then ultimately, consumers that tried them sorted themselves out. Many went back to their traditional cigarette product, and then some decided to continue to dual use or switch to those e-vapor products. Actually, interestingly enough, the amount of growth that happened in 2014 seems to line up with the rapid growth that's happening in 2018 if you look at it on a number of pods or number of milliliter basis. And I think this growth phase is really depending on whether you measure it either two quarters in or three quarters in. So I think based on historical patterns, if it follows, you'd expect that it could have some more room to run here through the end of the year. I think the best indication of its impact on the cigarette category is to look at the adjusted cigarette decline rate of 3.5% in the second quarter. And I would note that during the prior two growth phases for e-vapor, you had in both of those years a 4% decline in the cigarette category, albeit the smokeless category was growing at a higher rate, 2.5% and 5% respectively. So I think there's a fair amount of room in the secular decline rate that makes up that 3% to 4% decline for there to be growth in some of the smaller alternative product categories.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay, that's helpful. And then just following up on an earlier question about the investment spending, and I know you gave some high-level color just in terms of some of the initiatives that you have planned to do and have done so far. But I guess in terms of maybe timing of some of the spending, first half versus second half, would there be any big difference in terms of the phasing? And then the nature of the investment, so combustible versus the new products versus at a brand level, would there be any big differences in terms of the first half versus second half spending phasing?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
I don't think there's been real significant change in our spending plans or our phasing since we announced it earlier in the year. We're making investments in our smokeable segment and in our smokeless segment. Certainly in smokeable, the Marlboro Ice launch was included in that. And then we've made equity investments in both smokeable and smokeless in the first half. We've also invested in some of the expansions of our innovative products. I mentioned in the release that we've expanded VERVE into some test markets, and of course we've expanded our MarkTen Elite product. And then we've got a significant amount of scientific activity going on to support future applications to the FDA. The only thing I think is worth calling out from a timing perspective is that we did include in our investment plans for this year the lead market launch of IQOS. And that is obviously FDA approval dependent. So we'll have to wait and see how that develops in the second half.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. And just quickly on the IQOS, Howard, you talked about the two to three-month lag once you get the FDA approval to the lead market launch. So I'm just wondering what that lag is.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
It really involves the time necessary in order to ship the product over, get it through customs, get it tax stamped, and get it distributed to the stores. And while on the surface it might feel like optimally you'd like to go faster, it actually turns out that given that we can't communicate about the product until it receives FDA approval, actually having a couple of months to build awareness and to do some early trial on that product, we find that actually hits the sweet spot to make sure that as we have the product available – full availability at retail, that there's significant awareness and significant demand for the product. And of course, we'll communicate through traditional mass communication vehicles as well as through digital.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it, okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Thank you for taking the question. Can I just follow up to make sure I've understood the last answer to Judy's questions? I think what you were implying, and I want to check this, is if for whatever reason the FDA does not grant approval for IQOS this year, that would actually result in, let's say, a positive surprise for you in terms of profit because you wouldn't be spending marketing dollars you were otherwise budgeting for that I guess would move you towards the upper end of your EPS guidance.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think you are right that we have some dollars allocated in this year to the IQOS launch. But of course, every year, we have a number of puts and takes that result in the number we ultimately deliver. But certainly, if IQOS was not approved by the end of the year, that would be a positive variance that we would put into the kitty with other changes in deciding where to end the year from a profit growth perspective.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay, thank you very much. And I just wanted to follow up on this, your marketing plans. You've said that they're broadly unchanged, and I'm talking about the sort of equity building and the rolling out of Ice in terms of first half, second half split. But the question is, is there anything that we should be aware of that is either going to accelerate or decelerate in the second half versus the first half? I mean, for example, it might be that you're expecting much more in terms of promotions behind Ice or maybe less. I was just wondering how your marketing plans I guess differ in the two halves?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I think if you're talking about the smokeable products segment, I wouldn't call out a significantly different level of investment in the back half of the year than in the front half of the year. I think that the initial trial promotions for Ice have largely run their course. And anytime you launch a new brand, in the third and fourth quarters of that brand launch, you are going to have some level of trial promotion. But typically it steps down from the initial launch. So, I think that we'll have a fairly normal distribution of marketing resources across the core businesses this year. The only thing I would call out that is a back half impact is that we're going to have excise tax increases that take a place on July 1 in Oklahoma and Kentucky. And while those excise tax increases are substantially less of an increase than we had in California, and they don't have the volume that we had in California, they do happen to be two other states that Marlboro's overdeveloped in. So, there'll be a little bit of pressure I think on Marlboro in the third quarter, but we continue to feel good about our performance in the back half.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
And then one final question for me
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
To be specific, we launched Marlboro Ice in the first quarter of this year, so we've really got two quarters' worth of information. And I would say Marlboro Ice is largely on plan, and we're very pleased with its performance. And I think it was driven by the fact that I think it's a nice new Marlboro offering in a menthol category that has been growing. And I have to tell you that the innovative reseal pack has been well received by consumers. So, we would mark this up as a success for the Marlboro brand launch.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Powers of Deutsche Bank.
Steve Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning. Thanks.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Steve Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I guess, first just going back quickly to the topic of inventory rebalancing, I think you mostly addressed it before, Billy, but just to be specific, was there any particular reason that you see for why the trade decided to run inventories down as low as it did this quarter? Is there any specific driver that you can point to, or is it just normal, if outsized volatility?
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think it's just normal outsized volatility. If you look over prior years, you'll see periods of times where inventories run up and periods of times where inventories run down.
Steve Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then just to be clear, I'm assuming you expect the roughly 2 points or so, the 2-point gap between shipments and whatever rate of underlying demand is established in the second half. You expect that to close. Is that correct?
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think based on what I said earlier, if you look through time, inventories tend to follow consumer consumption, and so you would see a balance through time.
Steve Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. And then look, I guess just stepping back, as you said in the opening remarks, there's been a ton of development this quarter from a regulatory perspective. But I actually wanted to ask your opinion on about two things that have happened more at the local level versus the federal level in the quarter. First is just the flavors ban in San Francisco that was passed in June. And the second, which I guess is outside the quarter, but the recent Attorney General investigation in Massachusetts into JUUL. I'd just love your thoughts on both as the potential precedents. And on the latter, just to be clear, I don't expect you to comment on a competitor situation specifically, but I am interested in your views as to what implications such an action might have indirectly on the e-vapor category broadly or even on your MarkTen business specifically?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I'll start with the San Francisco flavor ban. What we have found is that there is some low level of activity in various localities and occasionally a city that is at odds with the general trend at the federal and state level. And that's really how I would frame that San Francisco flavor ban. I think it's more of an aberration than it is the beginning of a trend. But it would not surprise me if you had a handful of other localities or cities that are particularly anti-tobacco take up that activity. But I wouldn't expect it to get much traction on a larger scale.
Steve Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thank you. That's helpful. And then as to what the Attorney General is doing or may do in Massachusetts, as it relates to e-vapor?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I think what we're seeing is that for quite some time, the tobacco industry has been expected to operate under a very specific set of rules, and the Master Settlement Agreement laid those out for the cigarette category. But frankly, as we've expanded into other categories, we've always had a significant focus on making sure that we market only to adult tobacco consumers, and that we minimize unintended reach of our marketing to folks that are non-smokers. And we are always aware that the FDA and the Attorneys General are watching everything we do to make sure we're operating responsibly. And I think that we think that has resulted in a category where the level of marketing that is seen by non-tobacco users has come down dramatically. And of course, youth smoking rates are at all-time lows. I think that that is the way any responsible tobacco company needs to operate in the U.S. And I think that the AGs, who monitor marketing activity and all other tobacco activity across the country, I think don't hesitate to reach out to tobacco manufacturers if they think they're not operating against the basic rules of the industry. And so, I can't specifically comment on the details of the action in Massachusetts, but I think as an experienced player in the category, we're not surprised, and frankly, we appreciate the AGs making sure that there's a minimum level of performance expected from everybody in the industry.
Steve Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. That's very clear. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Petros Voulgaris of Goldman Sachs.
Petros Voulgaris - Goldman Sachs:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Petros Voulgaris - Goldman Sachs:
So, just a few related questions I just want to throw out. Since IQOS isn't going to be sold as a cigarette, is not having IQOS in the MSA something you're going to pursue with the regulators? Or would you pursue a separate MSA for IQOS? And as a follow-up, can IQOS in an updated iteration of the product not be considered eligible for inclusion in the MSA?
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. To be clear, based on the definitions of a cigarette in the U.S., our belief is when we enter the market with IQOS, IQOS will be classified as a cigarette under the federal definition and most state definitions. So, it will incur MSA payments and excise tax payments for the Heatsticks as a cigarette. But I think you do bring up the fact that when you look at the performance characteristics of the IQOS Heatstick used in the IQOS device, and you compare it to a cigarette, there's significant differences that we think would warrant a lower excise tax in order to encourage people to use the IQOS system versus a traditional cigarette. And we've been pursuing that with the governmental authorities primarily by saying, for any product that gets an MRTP, we try and get a lower state excise tax rate. We've had success in a couple of states. But I think as it enters the market, unlike the case that PMI has had in many international markets around the world, where it's been classified in its own tax classification category, at least at the beginning, that will not be the case in the U.S.
Petros Voulgaris - Goldman Sachs:
Thank you.
Howard A. Willard - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Marshall for closing comments.
William Marshall - Altria Client Services Inc:
Thank you all for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
William Marshall - Altria Group, Inc. Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc. William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Stephen Robert Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Owen Bennett - Jefferies International Ltd. Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd. Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co. Gilbert Alexandre - Darphil Associates
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2018 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
William Marshall - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Jennifer. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO, to discuss Altria's 2018 first quarter business results. Earlier today we issued a press release providing these results which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2017. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results excludes special items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release. With that, I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Bill. Good morning, everyone. We're off to a fast start to the strong year of EPS growth to which we've guided with adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 30.1% in the first quarter. Altria's leading tobacco businesses, diverse income streams and strong balance sheet provide us with numerous levers to deliver strong performance over the long term. For example, in the first quarter we benefited, from a lower tax rate as a result of Federal income tax reform something for which we long advocated. We also reported higher equity earnings from our investment in Anheuser-Busch InBev and higher adjusted operating company's income in the Smokeless product segment. We paid shareholders nearly $1.3 billion in dividends in the first quarter, announced an out-of-cycle quarterly dividend increase of 6.1%, and repurchased $513 million in shares. We also continued our progress toward our aspiration of U.S. leadership in authorized, non-combustible, reduced-risk products. As we've previously discussed we are reinvesting about a third of our tax reform benefit into strategic areas for long-term growth. These include innovative product development and launches including IQOS, regulatory science, equity enhancements to our brands, retail fixtures and future retail concepts. The timing of these investments will vary by operating segment and some may be impacted by external factors, such as the timing of an IQOS market order from the FDA. As a result, we once again encourage investors to focus on full year performance against our strategies, rather than a quarter-by-quarter segment result, which may be noisier than usual. We also continue to invest in our employees. In the first quarter, we were pleased to share with our employees a portion of our tax reform benefit to recognize their ongoing contributions to our success. These one-time bonuses totaled about $22 million, or $3,000 per nonexecutive fulltime employee and that expense flowed through our operating company's first quarter financials. So with that overview, let's discuss the operating segment results. In the smokeable product segment, our strategy is to maximize income while maintaining momentum on Marlboro and Black & Mild. This year we're investing behind product expansions, packaging innovations and brand equity to stabilize Marlboro's share and expand our company's overall share in the growing menthol and super-premium segments. For example, in the first quarter, PM USA expanded Marlboro Ice nationally. Marlboro Ice offers a unique, crisp and cool-to-the-finish experience which appeals to competitive adult menthol smokers. Its innovative reseal pack is the first of its kind in the U.S. further differentiating the brand. After only eight weeks, Marlboro Ice is being sold in about 130,000 retail stores and has very high reorder rates. Marlboro Ice is supported with prominent point-of-sale materials and retail intercepts with competitive adult menthol smokers to further promote awareness and trial. We're encouraged by its performance thus far which is meeting our expectations and helping to stabilize Marlboro share. Another equity investment is a new Marlboro rewards program in Texas called Points West. Through this program, adult smokers, 21 plus, earn points by scanning unique codes printed inside their Marlboro packs, which can then be redeemed for gear, coupons and charitable donations. After just 10 weeks in market, over 100,000 adult smokers have engaged with Points West, which is generating news and excitement for the brand among adult smokers, increasing adult smoker digital reach and engagement and growing brand loyalty. It's also worth highlighting that the engineering that enables these unique codes to be printed at PM USA scale and manufacturing speed is a major innovation. As a result of these and other efforts, Marlboro retail share grew a 0.1 share point sequentially to 43.2% versus the fourth quarter 2017 share. In the super-premium tobacco and water segment, Nat's continues to perform very well in Colorado. Nat Sherman is building awareness and trial of Nat's among adult smokers and we're pleased with its market share performance. Nat's is sourcing competitive share in the segment and adult smokers are responding positively to the product, its advertising campaign and the packaging. Based on these strong results in June, Nat Sherman will expand Nat's into 13 additional states across the western U.S. In the smokeless products segment, USSTC delivered strong adjusted OCI growth of 27.3% in the first quarter as it lapped the 2017 voluntary product recall and grew pricing. Total smokeless segment retail share grew 0.1 share point, led by Copenhagen, which grew 1.1 share points in the quarter to 34.3%. USSTC also expanded Copenhagen Southern Blend into 13 states across the western U.S. in the first quarter. Skoal retail share declined 1.2 share points in the quarter to 16.2% as USSTC focuses on growing its profitability, while investing behind blends and snus for adult smokers seeking non-combustible alternatives. The company expanded Skoal spearmint tobacco blend pouches in the first quarter and plans to update packaging on Skoal Snus in the second quarter to broaden its appeal among adult smokers and dual users. In pursuit of Altria's innovative aspiration, we're investing behind the three most promising non-combustible product platforms with the potential to reduce harm
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Marty, and good morning everyone. Let's start with a deeper look at the Smokeable Products segment. Smokeable segment adjusted OCI decreased 2% in the quarter, primarily driven by cigarette volume declines, strategic business investments and higher resolution expenses, partially offset by higher pricing. Smokeable adjusted OCI margins declined 1.2 percentage points to 49.7%. We estimate that the cigarette industry volume declined about 5.5% in the first quarter. There are a number of factors at play here, most notably the impact of the California state excise tax increase, which went into effect in April of last year. We believe the effects of the California SCT were further amplified this quarter due to pantry loading that inflated volume in the year-ago period. We also continued to see adult tobacco consumers moving between tobacco categories as evidenced by e-vapor category growth and while we continue to be net positive about the strength of the adult tobacco consumer, recent gas price increases could be impacting purchase decisions in the short term. We continue to closely monitor these and other factors and have good plans in place for all volume scenarios. Our Smokeable segment reported domestic cigarette volume declined 4.2% primarily driven by the industry's rate of decline and retail share declines partially offset by trade inventory movements. When adjusted for trade inventory movements, Smokeable segment cigarette volume declined an estimated 7%. The cigar business continues to perform well, growing reported shipment volume 3% in the quarter. In the smokeless product segment, USSTC grew adjusted OCI 27.3% in the first quarter, as it lapped the 2017 voluntary recall and grew pricing. Adjusted OCI margins expanded 7.8 percentage points to 69%. Smokeless industry volume declined an estimated 1% over the past six months, while USSTC's reported domestic shipment volume was essentially flat in the first quarter. We urge caution when comparing year-over-year volume estimates for the smokeless segment. First quarter 2017 volume was particularly noisy. As the voluntary product recall involved removing significant volume from the marketplace and then replenishing that volume with fresh product. Turning to our alcohol assets. After a challenging 2017, Ste. Michelle grew volume and revenue in the quarter with wine shipment volume up 6.1%. While adjusted OCI declined $4 million, substantially all of that was due to the one-time employee bonuses Marty discussed. In beer, adjusted equity earnings from our Anheuser-Busch InBev investment were $225 million in the first quarter, reflecting Altria's share of AB InBev's fourth quarter results. And of course, we continue to reward shareholders by returning significant cash to them through dividends and share repurchases. In March, we raised our dividend 6.1% to reflect final 2017 results and we expect to maintain our dividend payout ratio target of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS. We repurchased eight million shares in the first quarter at an average share price of $64.33 for a total cost of $513 million. This leaves approximately $500 million remaining in the current $1 billion repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of the year. With that, we'll wrap up, and Marty and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Investors, analysts and media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. We will take a question from the investment community first. Your first question will come from Chris Growe with Stifel.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Chris.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. So, Marty, I just wanted to ask you first off if I could, there's been some controversy around the rate of growth in vapor and e-cigarettes and the resulting weakness in the cigarette volumes. You cited this in your remarks and Billy did, I just wonder if you could give some perspective on the growth of the e-vapor category in total. There's more than just measured channels that, which is what we see. And then, how you think it may be affecting cigarette volume. I don't know if you can give a number there, but just if you can give us an idea of kind of what to expect through the year if possible.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, so the vapor category has grown. You'll remember Chris, there was a period when it grew fast, when it first came into the market, and then flattened and now it's growing again. This is consistent I think with what we've been saying all along which is as the technologies get better and particularly as adult smokers are able to learn about the products that we would expect migration over time and that's why we're, have the innovation aspiration we do. So, the numbers are hard to come by as you know. We can look at the measured channels. It looks to us like the volume was up in 2017 about 11%. And at least in measured channels is moving much faster than that this year. It's very hard to get numbers around the other channels' e-commerce and some of the vape shops. Listen, in terms of volume, in the cigarette category I think Billy covered it pretty well, which is there are a number of factors which affect cigarette industry volume and it happens over time. Our view on this, we don't guide on volume, as you know, Chris. But we expect for that rate to moderate as we go through 2018 because we're going to lap the California SET. I'd also remind people that the rates tend to be a little bit lumpy. If I look at 2017, for example by quarter, the rates were 3%, 4.5%, 3.5%, and 4.5% and then it smoothed out to about 4%, which is in the long-term range. I remind everybody I won't go through the mechanics because I know you all know this, but we have a very highly-developed model to monitor this which comprises both secular decline rate and price elasticity. And we look at a number of factors in the secular decline rates, including the migration of smokers to other technology. So we're keeping an eye on that. But we have good plans for 2018. We've reaffirmed, we have confidence in the plan. As probably lastly, just worth reminding ourselves that over time there have been other predictions about trend breaks in the cigarette volume decline that have not materialized. I remember once around 2011 or 2012 about vapor, and it was going to be an immediate disruptor and it turned out not to be true. And then on the other side we remember gas prices dropped and consumers did better, and we were, some were predicting it was going to go up. So we look at it over time. We monitor it regularly, and we'll be ready for whatever comes.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, just, thank you. Good color there. I had just one follow-up question which is...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
...in terms of your spending – we know you're spending some of this tax savings back behind the business. And we don't need to get into quarters here, but has that spending started aggressively already? And, we saw Marlboro sequentially improve a little bit. Can we attribute some of that to some of the incremental spending already? Or is that still to come?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
No. Yeah, we're spending. It's in our plans for 2018. You're right. We're not going to guide by the quarters. But, Chris, if you look at the national launch of Marlboro Ice, if you look at the expansion of MarkTen Elite, if you look at the filing of the MRTPA application for Copenhagen snuff and so forth, you can see that those investments are starting to flow through in those important long-term places. And I think we've got a year to go. But again, we're encouraged by Marlboro stabilizing sequentially from the last quarter.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Chris, thanks for the questions.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question is from Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Bonnie.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. I have a couple questions on IQOS. Could you guys give us an update on your expectations for the PMTA timing? And then I'd like to hear from you on what you think are the prospects for IQOS in the U.S. in light of the adoption curve that Philip Morris highlighted in Japan. Do you guys foresee similar limitations along the adoption curve in the U.S.? And just like to hear from you what learnings you're taking from, again, what they're seeing in Japan right now?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. So I'm afraid we don't have much to offer you on timing because it remains at the FDA. And, as you know, those timelines, Bonnie, and they continue to look at it. But we're hopeful we'll hear from them soon. We remain very excited about the prospects of bringing IQOS to the U.S. marketplace. We think it's a very good product with a good sensory experience that has good satisfaction parallel to cigarettes. There's no ash, there's less odor. And it's a compelling harm reduction opportunity, as we know, from the application. So, I know there has been some discussion about its performance in Japan. I know that you'll remember that when we've been asked to try to pick a market that we like, we've refrained from doing so. And I think that turns out to be right. We're trying to gain the insights from each of the markets, apply them to what we think will happen in the U.S. market. It's also worth reminding people that we have a portfolio approach to harm reduction. So while we're very excited about IQOS and we are going to be working very hard to convert adult smokers, we also have the largest smokeless business in the world, which is already profitable. And obviously, we're building a vapor business. So that's how we think about it in the context of our long-term strategy. And we don't get too excited about short-term information about IQOS. We continue to believe in it and we're really excited about bringing it to the U.S. market.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you for that. But then that does beg a follow-on question just in terms of how do you guys envision IQOS interacting with the more developed e-cigs market than what you see outside of the U.S., because certainly that's the case here. And then you touched on your full portfolio of reduced-risk products. So help us understand how you expect that to interact within your own portfolio?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Well, that's what we're going to – sure, good question. That's what we're going to go find out when we get to market. This is a product that has not been introduced to the U.S. market. And I know you remember from our Investor Day presentation that our belief is, is that consumers, like in most categories, will segment along product lines and we want to be there with the leading options. And so, as the consumer segment, we will make investments behind the leading bets. And the honest answer is no one will know how it will interact until we put it in the market and observe that, and that's one of the things we're going to learn as soon as we can get it there.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. One final question for me, if I may, just on your smokeable operating income growth, which was negative, which is very unusual for you guys. So, just want to understand how much of this was planned. I know you talked about stepping up spending. But I just really want to understand how we should think about this going forward? And then do you guys think that the stepped-up spending is resulting in the share stabilization you're looking for, for Marlboro. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. I think the investments are paying back, and this is why we have said for some time now, including when we guided early in the year, that long-term investors should look, I think, at our full year performance against our strategies, including these investments. And, by golly, we're guiding to a 15% to 19% EPS growth year and we see 30% in the first quarter. So I know it's tempting in some places to bore into the segment reporting for each quarter, but that's not how we think about it. And I think investors should think about it the same way, which is long-term growth in EPS. And by the way, that gets converted into cash through the dividend payout ratio.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for the questions.
Operator:
Your next question is from Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Judy.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
So, Marty, I guess I just wanted to go back to kind of the industry question and the interaction between combustibles and e-vapors. And clearly, the stock price performance in the last couple of months, adjusted investors are really concerned about how much e-vapor category, particularly JUUL, is taking share away from your combustible product. So, I'm just wondering if you have any response to that or any data that you can share us in terms of the interaction across those brands.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, there is interaction, and as you know and we've been predicting this as we bring innovative products to the marketplace, there is going to be interaction because if you will remember again from presentations we've made previously, we know about half of adult smokers are looking for products to migrate to that offer them nicotine that they may want or need, but that offer them a reduced harm. So we would expect that over time. Now, again, just another historical footnote. We went back and we looked, and I have counted at least five brands in the e-vapor category that had very significant growth rates early and then fell back to earth over time. And so, this is not the first time that we have seen some excitement about a category growth. And what we're learning is, is that you have to dimensionalize the size of the category. The category is about $90 billion retail in the United States. We think vapor is probably about $3 billion of that in 2017. So it remains a fraction of the overall category. And time will tell as adult smokers migrate. So again, we're the long-term people. Our long-term strategy is to move them to innovative products. But I think it's worth remembering the history that there have been some rockets before that haven't sustained their trajectory.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then, I guess, just when you kind of think about the FDA actions, though, just in terms of – seems like there is a lot of concern around the youth access issue on e-vapor category and obviously there's been some letters being sent to some of the retailers. Do you think that that is a positive development in a sense that that actually allows some of those dynamics to kind of shift a little bit more in favor of the combustibles? Or does it sort of undermine your plan to kind of develop the e-vapor category, IQOS as well as your Nu Mark product?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I hope it doesn't. But I think it's important that everybody understand that this is a category that comes with responsibility. And those of us who have been here for some time understand that the responsibility actions we take, particularly in the area of youth access, are most important. And, some of the developments we've seen, I think may reflect that other companies have not understood that as they've entered the market. It's why we work so hard on this in terms of youth access prevention in our trade programs and the like. There is nothing inconsistent, in my view, with trying to develop innovative products for adults while taking steps to limit their reach to young people. And we have done it for decades and that's how we're running our e-vapor business.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then question for you, Billy. Just, obviously, you bought back about $500 million of shares in the first quarter. You've got another $500 million left in your authorization. But your balance sheet is still pretty strong. You're generating cash, and it seems like the stock price reaction recently would suggest that you could actually be much more aggressive in terms of the buybacks. So do you have any updated thoughts in terms of how you think about the buyback for the balance of the year?
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, Judy, as we've said before, look, we buy back shares based on market conditions. We're currently in a program and we'll evaluate that as we progress through the year.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good to speak with you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Vivien Azer with Cowen.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Vivien.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
So thank you for the color on kind of the puts and takes on cigarette industry volumes. I was wondering if, just from an industry perspective – not necessarily for your volumes – do you have a sense of what that number would have been if you exclude California?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I don't.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. No problem. Just in terms of the dynamics within the cigarette category, Marty, I think over the last few quarters we've been discussing some of the dynamics that are happening at the lower end of the category.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
And it looks like, per your disclosure, deep discount does continue to gain share. So could you offer a little bit more color on the dynamics that you're seeing at the low end, please?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. Maybe two things, Vivien, from our end. One is sort of how the consumer is doing and then the movement within discount. So we continue to be net positive on the consumer. But we're watchful of a few things, to be sure. I mean on the positive side we're at full employment. And confidence remains good and the housing starts look okay to us. On the watch-out list I think is you haven't seen the wage gains that you might expect in a full employment environment. And, of course, they're not evenly distributed. Gas prices are up about 10% year-over-year, as you and some others have noted. And we're also watching to make sure that there aren't other costs that are kind of eating away at disposable income. But net-net I think we remain positive. There is no question though that there are manufacturers in the marketplace that are investing behind trying to get the lowest price cigarette brand in the store. And you see that in the deep discount. So discounts about 24% according to our estimate. It's up about three tenths, which is a tick up from where it had been. All of that basically from the deep discount end. Looks to us like about half of that is switching out from manufacturers discount. And then the other three-tenths, give or take, it's not quite this precise, but roughly, Vivien, comes from the remaining 75% there. So there are consumers, to be sure, who will go into a trade channel and ask for the cheapest brand in the store. And there are some companies that are offering it to them. So I think that probably explains our view of what's happening in the discount category. Obviously, it's not an area of focus for us, as we're focused on premium, especially Marlboro.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Absolutely. That's really helpful. If you take a step back, Marty, and I really appreciated your comments that, yeah, when gas prices were good...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
...clearly it was apparent with cigarette volumes. And if we kind of go back to 2015 and look over the last three years, have you notice any evolution in price elasticities?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
No. And we – it's something we look at all the time, and we have not seen any change there.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
All right. That's good news. Last question for me. On FDA – I'm not sure if you're going to comment on this, but I'm going to try to ask the question anyway.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
I'm curious whether you think the FDA appreciates that the pharmacokinetic profile can be very different within e-cigarettes, because as I think about the ANPRM around characterizing flavors, anything that is a combustible cigarette, and certainly what you guys are aspiring to do on IQOS fits into a much more tightly-regulated flavor profile. And I wonder whether they, whether they're kind of looking at that, if the pharmacokinetic profile matters and whether that informs how you're thinking about characterizing flavors – or whether you think they should be. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I can't speak for the FDA, but I'm confident that they will look at that, along with a host of things. Our experience with them has been that they're very thorough, and I think that they will look at the product performances and I'm sure with the flavor ANPRM, this is going to come up. So, while I can't speak for them it seems sensible to me that they would do that.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Terrific. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question is from Matt Grainger with Morgan Stanley.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Just had one question. The investment in – that you made in the all-other segment this quarter was a bit below our expectations. And, I guess I'm asking more in absolute rather than relative to my own expectations, but you highlighted expanding MarkTen Elite into 6,000 stores but given the magnitude of measured channel growth in the e-cigarette category, what are the constraints against more rapidly accelerating investment in the all other segment? Are there capacity constraints that are guiding that or is it really just taking a more measured approach before you fully commit to one of the new technologies that you're supporting this year?
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, Matt. There're really no constraints from a capacity standpoint. It's really when you see that, you'll see fluctuations when you compare year-over-year, quarter by quarter. There'll be puts and takes as we move through the year. And so we certainly are disciplined as we approach the e-vapor category but no constraints that are limiting us.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Matt.
Operator:
Your next question is from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.
Stephen Robert Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning. I guess...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Steve.
Stephen Robert Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Continuing on with e-vapor and the topic du jour, I'm wondering what your analytics tell you about the demographic overlap between today's e-vapor consumer and really I guess the JUUL adopter specifically, and your core smokeable segment consumer. Because I guess I'm just trying to – is there anything there that might make you more or less optimistic when you think about direct smokeable cannibalization risks on your brands from e-vapor? Especially in the near term as JUUL growth remains robust and for example your MarkTen franchise grows. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Maybe I'll take that up a level, Steve, so I don't, be commenting about other people's products and competitive information which we have which I'm not particularly interested in sharing on a call. But I think what we do know is that among adult smokers, it's pretty widely held that they are looking for alternatives and that's true for both adult male and female smokers as well as across the age cohorts. I can say also that we take great care when we we're looking at the age cohorts to make sure that we're focusing our efforts on adult smokers and so forth. But in terms of the interplay between one brand and our cigarette brand, I think that's a topic I'm not going to discuss on the call. I hope you can appreciate that.
Stephen Robert Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I do. I just thought I'd try.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I appreciate it.
Stephen Robert Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I guess separate tact on the topic.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure.
Stephen Robert Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
As your vapor business grows and builds on some of the newer products that you're bringing to market, is there any update on how you're thinking about the profitability ramp and how you dimension where run rate margins might mature towards in that segment under the various growth scenarios that you're considering?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, I thought when we presented at Investor Day and Jody took us through how he's thinking about it, what our aspiration for vapor is to be the leading e-vapor company in the United States that offers superior products to people who want them. And that we have cigarette margins – cigarette-like margins at scale and that continues to be our aspiration and as the volume comes in it helps us along that way. So we are bullish about the ability to build a business there that has cigarette-like margins. It's early right now of course and we're investing. And there's a lot of FDA spend, but over time, we're pretty bullish about that possibility.
Stephen Robert Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
That's great. If I can squeeze in one more.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure.
Stephen Robert Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
The various advanced notices of proposed rulemaking that you mentioned that the FDA had issued over the last several months, can you remind us...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes.
Stephen Robert Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
...of the expected timeline from here of your responses and the likely news flow that you see associated with it? Because just given what we saw in March, obviously, FDA-related headlines can certainly have an impact on how the market perceives risk around your stock. So, I just, I think it's important to remain clear about what may or may not lie ahead on that front.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, so if I remember this correctly, there are 90 day response deadlines to each of the ANPRMs and they all came out within about a week or so of each other. I don't have the date in my head at the moment, but we can get you that. I think that we and others have asked for extensions. These are enormously complex topics they've asked on, and so they may be extended. And if that's of interest to you, Steve, I'll have Bill get you those dates. I just don't have them top of mind. But nominally 90 days, but there may be extensions for the replies. And the replies will probably trigger some discussion of those as well.
Stephen Robert Powers - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Perfect. Thank you so much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question is from Owen Bennett with Jefferies.
Owen Bennett - Jefferies International Ltd.:
Good morning, guys. Hope all well.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Owen.
Owen Bennett - Jefferies International Ltd.:
Just one question for me, I think, just following up on Vivian's. So you spoke about the deep discount competition, but could you comment on the promotional environment ex the deep discount brands, please? Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, it continues, I would say, to stay competitive. I don't think there's been any significant changes in the first quarter that I would call out from the typical back and forth on the promotional. Naturally, you have some folks that are expanding brands, and they put promotional devices in place. But I don't think it's anything materially different from the fourth quarter.
Owen Bennett - Jefferies International Ltd.:
Cool. Thank you, guys.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Owen.
Operator:
Your next question is from Adam Spielman with Citi.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Hi. Thank you very much. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on the discount segment within cigarettes. How big does that have to get before you start getting concerned about it, would be the first question?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Well, we watch it carefully obviously given our focus on premium business, and you'll probably remember, Adam, there have been periods in the past where the discount category grew such that we had to take action to compete more effectively there. I would say at 24% of the market, it's relatively stable, and you see us continuing to do a good job. So, we don't have a trip wire that I'll call out, but it's something that we monitor.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Can you just remind us sort of back in – my memory was in – was suddenly in the sort of mid-2004 period, sort of beyond that, it was an issue. What sort of percentage was it at that point? I know you're not going to say sort of a 28.2% is suddenly...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Right.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
...going to do something. But sort of ballpark, are we talking 30%? Are we talking 28%? Are we talking 35%?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I'll give you a different metric that we monitor...
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Yes.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
...which is price gap. So I think that's probably the easier way to think about it. You remember this from Marlboro Friday and others. Net gap gets out of line, and then we know we have to be mindful of that. The gap's right now at about 30%. And it can probably expand a bit, but that's probably the better number to look at, Adam.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Fine. Okay, that's very good. And then secondly, we haven't talked about – much about smokeless in the Q&A. Obviously, volume's roughly flat. As we think about the next quarter or two, we've got the recall. But if you sort of strip out the effects of the recall, should we sort of be thinking that this category is flat now? And the other thing I was really surprised about was your strong margin. And again, whether in the medium term you see significant upside from here? Or whether it's going be a much more gradual thing on the OCI margin?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, well, thanks for that because it allows me to observe that it's hard to grow margin from 69%. I mean, it's a very high margin category, isn't it?
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Yes.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
That's flatter a bit because of the recall. Obviously, we had a lot of costs in the first quarter of 2017, so the delta between this quarter and that, Adam, is flatter a bit by that, but it's a high margin business. There's no denying it. I think it's fair to observe that the category has been flattish in terms of its volume growth. It used to go about 5%, call it, and it's clearly slowed down a little bit to be flattish or down a little bit on the six-month moving. There's probably a couple of reasons for that. One is something we talked about earlier which is there are consumers that are trying other products; and secondly, the retail pricing is up more in 2017 than it has been over 2015 and 2016. And I think that's had an effect on category growth which is something we're also looking at.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you. And that was partly a tax rise, if I remember, in Pennsylvania?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, and MST also had an excise tax increase in California last year, too.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for the questions.
Operator:
Your next question is from Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Yeah. Good morning, everyone.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Nik.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, Marty. So just two questions from my end. First on just general Marlboro trends, outside of California, can you guys like pinpoint the areas? I'm just curious how broad-based it is versus is it isolated in certain regions, markets where you could be a lot more tactical? That's the first question. And then the second question is just maybe an update on MarkTen Bold, if you can give us any thoughts on kind of early consumer response.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. Billy, you want to talk about Marlboro?
William F. Gifford, Jr. - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, I'll talk about Marlboro. From a standpoint of being broad-based, it is broad-based, Nik. From a standpoint of fine-tuning, we are always in the process of fine-tuning. That's something that the PM USA team does very well. And they'll look and adjust state-by-state to fine-tune the effectiveness of our spending related to Marlboro.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
MarkTen Bold, I think, is off to good start, Nik. It's a very good product, particularly as it appeals, I think, to adult smokers who are looking for similar experience there. And so, it's early days with MarkTen Bold, but the early feedback is very good.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
And I guess what I'm really trying to get at, maybe I should have been more explicit. Obviously, MarkTen Bold is your first foray with the salt technology.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
And obviously, there's certain other products in the marketplace that have done very well with that technology. So I'm just trying to understand, how much of this is about the brand versus the actual experience? And can you do more stuff with MarkTen Bold to get consumers to try it, because obviously with the salt technology, the consumer experience is a lot better?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, it's true. And I think it's also format. So I think in the e-vapor category, the product bundle is both the format, the satisfaction and the flavor. And so we have very good flavor there, and I think it has good satisfaction. But it is a cig-alike product, and that is a segment that is under some pressure in e-vapor. We've got, obviously, in MarkTen Elite, a pod-based product, which is a different formulation. And what we're trying to do there is to match consumer expectations through different devices. You may know, for example there, that the pod has about twice as much liquid as another competitive brand. And we're trying to meet the consumer where they want to be through different techniques. I think we're going to see this for a while, Nik, as both formats, flavors and satisfaction are worked on in the category. And remember, we also have the complexity of the FDA rules that allow you to launch some products but not others, given when they were in the marketplace. So that's the bundle of things that we're working through. But when I look at what Nu Mark has done, we have a very good offering in cig-alike. I think we have a very good offering now in a pod-based product. And through our interest in Avail, we're learning a lot about the open segment. So I think that's the right strategy.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thanks, Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good to talk to you, Nik.
Operator:
Your next question is from Michael Lavery with Piper Jaffray.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi Michael.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
You mentioned on IQOS, obviously assuming that it's approved for marketing authorization, that you would have a lead market and then other lead markets. And so it sounds a little bit like you'll have a measured approach. How do you think about the range of scenarios? Is it something you could accelerate if the responses click? Is there capacity limitations? What are some of the things that frame how you think about the trajectory that would presumably build towards an ultimate national expansion?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, good question. We built at least three scenarios that depend on the consumer reaction to it. We have contingency plans in place to scale it faster in faster scenarios. Capacity we do not expect to be an issue. We've got some things to learn, as you know, about pricing and the brand and how we go to market. I mean, I don't want people to underestimate, this is all new with IQOS, as PMI has experienced. What we've tried to do is to have a program in place that allows us to learn quickly, make the adjustments we need, and to scale fast depending upon its performance, which we continue to be optimistic about.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Oh, no. That's helpful. Thank you. And just back to gas prices as well for a minute. It was, depending on where exactly you benchmark it, about a two to even four or so point lift a couple years ago. In terms of magnitude, obviously, prices now are higher than in the last few years. But do you have any ability to quantify how much that may be driving some of the category pressure?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think it's one of many factors. It's not the same dramatic effect as when they dropped. I think that's fair to say. But because so much of the volume moves through convenience and gas, Michael, if it's up – I saw a figure, I think, $0.25 maybe year-over-year – it's not insignificant. And so we're keeping a close eye on it. It's not the same magnitude, but I think it's one of many factors that has affected the volume, probably, in our view.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay. And on Marlboro Ice, obviously, 130,000 stores is a tremendous reach. I think you call on maybe twice that, or something close to that. Is that something you expect to have further expansion potential? Or is it in the right places already? Or maybe somewhere in between?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, we're about eight weeks out, so we try to get to the right places fast. And then, obviously, when brands continue to succeed, we'll get them in a wider distribution. But the way we do this is we set target distributions and dates and we're right on track with Marlboro Ice. And given its success, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see it expand over time.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay. Thank you. One last one on the MRTP for snuff obviously some of the FDA's own targeted timing is not strict, but just to understand when their theoretical clock starts, has that application been accepted already? Because I think that's when they sort of began the countdown. I know you submitted it but is it sort of finally – officially formally accepted by them?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
No. You're getting pretty good at this about knowing all this technical stuff Michael. It's been filed but it has not been technically accepted which takes some time for them to go through the application, dot the I's, and cross the T's. So, I guess in FDA's view, the clock has not yet started to run.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
We invite the media to ask questions at this time. Your next question will come from Gil Alexandre with Darphil Associates.
Gilbert Alexandre - Darphil Associates:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Gilbert Alexandre - Darphil Associates:
Could you give us an estimate of where excise tax increase at the state level may be coming from this year? And I have a second question.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. We've had two that have been passed this year. There's been one in Oklahoma, which was $1 a pack and there was a second in Kentucky which was $0.50 a pack. We had proposals for about 26 of them. Some of the state legislatures are now starting to wrap up but we continue to see those as risks but so far this year anyway those two I called out.
Gilbert Alexandre - Darphil Associates:
I thank you. And could you give us an indication now that you're past the California excise tax what the volume declines could be over next 12 months? I know (49:36)...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, sure. Let me go back to where we started, it may be you were not on the call early. We don't guide on volume. What our observation was is that we would expect for the volume decline rate to moderate as we lap California going into the second quarter.
Gilbert Alexandre - Darphil Associates:
I thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thank you for your questions.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
We do have a follow-up question from Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. I just wanted to get back in.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Bonnie.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi, again. I had another question on Marlboro. I was hoping you could give us a sense of how the brand is performing so far in April now that you guys have lapped the California tax increase? Are you continuing to see sequential monthly improvements in share?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I guess it won't surprise you Bonnie to know that I'm not going to comment on the second quarter until we get to the second quarter. You'll have to forgive me.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
All right. One final if I may. I wanted to talk to you guys or clarify something with acquisitions. You've suggested in the past that you guys are open to exploring them whether it's businesses or technology. So I guess I'm asking, if this is still true especially given the strength of your balance sheet?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. That remains true. I think Billy's description at the Investor Day and at CAGNY about our willingness to grow our business both organically and in the right scenario non-organically continues to be true.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Glad you called back in.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Bill Marshall for closing comments.
William Marshall - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you all for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Martin Barrington - Chairman, President, Chief Executive Officer William Gifford - Chief Financial Officer Bill Marshall - Vice President, Investor Relations
Analysts:
Chris Growe - Stifel Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs Adam Spielman - Citigroup Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. Russ Miller - RBC Capital Markets Matthew Grainger - Morgan Stanley Michael Lavery - Piper Jaffray Priya Ohri-Gupta - Barclays
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2017 fourth quarter and full year earnings conference call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria’s management and a question and answer session. In order to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touchtone phone at any time. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Bill Marshall:
Thank you, Bridget. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We’re here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria’s CEO; and Billy Gifford, Altria’s CFO to discuss Altria’s 2017 fourth quarter and full year business results. Earlier today we issued a press release providing these results which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria investor app. During our call today unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2016. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria’s board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release. Now I’ll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin Barrington:
Thanks Bill. Good morning everyone and thanks for joining the call. Altria had another strong year in 2017. We delivered outstanding financial performance and continued to focus on rewarding our shareholders. In 2017, we grew adjusted diluted earnings per share 11.9%, built on the success of our core tobacco businesses and complemented by the effects of federal income tax reform. We paid out more than $4.8 billion in dividends and repurchased more than $2.9 billion in Altria shares. We are extremely proud of our company’s long-term track record of creating value for our shareholders. From the end of 2012 through 2017, we paid shareholders $21 billion in dividends and repurchased more than $6 billion in shares. Altria’s total shareholder return of 9.4% in 2017 follows four consecutive years of 20%-plus returns. Over this five-year period, our total shareholder return of 181% outperformed both the S&P 500 and the S&P Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Index by more than 70%. Let’s look first at our full year results and then we’ll say a word about the recently enacted tax reform legislation before turning to 2018 guidance. In 2017, we continued to maximize the core while innovating for the future. Our core tobacco businesses delivered strong income growth and expanded their already high margins despite a year that presented some unique challenges in each business. We also in 2017 accomplished several important strategic initiatives for future success, including making significant progress toward our goal of becoming the U.S. leader in authorized non-combustible reduced risk products. We advanced our lead market commercialization plans for iQOS, prepared a modified risk tobacco product application for Copenhagen Snuff, and invested in new innovative products at Nu Mark. Our smokable segment strategy continues to be to maximize income while maintaining momentum on Marlboro and Black & Mild over the long term. In 2017, the smokable product segment delivered strong adjusted operating company income growth of 7% and expanded adjusted OCI margins by 3 percentage points to 51.2%. Across our brand metrics, Marlboro continue to have category leading equity, strong demographics, and of course is highly profitable. As for retail share, it remains the leading brand by far, but Marlboro declined by four-tenths of a share point to 43.3% for the year. The decline is explained by the challenging dynamics we’ve been describing, specifically the effects of California’s $2 per pack SET increase and elevated competitive activity, which continued into the fourth quarter. We look at share performance over the long term, and from 2011 through 2017, Marlboro’s share grew by an average of about a tenth of a point annually, but there’s no question that 2017 presented a share challenge to PM USA, which it is addressing by reallocating marketing resources and investing in product and packaging innovation. On the product side, Marlboro Black Label and Marlboro Ice are the latest innovations from Marlboro. In October, PM USA announced the expansion of Marlboro Black Label in California and Washington State, and this week PM USA began its national expansion of Marlboro Ice. Marlboro Ice enhances Marlboro’s menthol offerings and comes in an innovative reseal pack. In November, PM USA expanded Benson & Hedges menthol into select stores in Maryland, Virginia, and Washington DC to complement Marlboro’s menthol portfolio. We expect these and other actions planned for 2018 to help stabilize Marlboro’s share and enhance PM USA’s premium offerings for the long term. From a portfolio perspective, with the Nat Sherman acquisition in 2017, Altria now has a presence the super premium cigarette segment. Since the acquisition, we successful integrated Nat Sherman, expanded its cigarette production capabilities, and aligned them with our strong distribution system. In the fourth quarter, the Nat Sherman team began a lead market test in Colorado for its repositioned brand, Nats. We’re very pleased with early results and excited about the opportunity to compete more effectively in the super premium segment. We continued to build our portfolio of non-combustible nicotine containing products for authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In USSTC, we have the most profitable non-combustible tobacco business in the world. The smokeless segment delivered outstanding adjusted OCI growth of more than 11% in 2017 despite the voluntary recall. Copenhagen continued to grow and USSTC improved Skoal’s overall profitability while investing behind its snus and blends offerings. Copenhagen’s retail share grew half a share point to 33.7%. On a combined basis, Copenhagen and Skoal retail share declined nine-tenths of a share point, reflecting USSTC’s continued focus on growing Copenhagen while refining its Skoal investments to enhance profitability. The product recall also affected retail share in the year predominantly for Skoal. We’re excited about USSTC’s role in a regulatory framework that recognizes the continuum of risk. The MRTP application for Copenhagen snuff is on schedule to be submitted this quarter. In e-vapor, our Nu Mark grew MarkTen’s volume by approximately 60% driven by expanded distribution and category growth. MarkTen had a full year national retail share of approximately 12.5% in mainstream channel. Nu Mark expanded the distribution of MarkTen Bold to approximately 25,000 stores. At investor day, we displayed Nu Mark’s expanded product portfolio, which it built through a combination of internal development, joint development with PMI, strategic partnerships, and acquisitions. These products include Apex and Vim by MarkTen, which are two closed tank systems, and MarkTen Elite and Sync, which are two pod-based products. In heated tobacco, the team at PM USA has made significant progress on its commercialization plans for iQOS, including a consumer engagement program and the development of digital strategies. The team is ready to act promptly upon FDA authorization of iQOS. In summary, we’re very pleased with our performance through a dynamic and challenging year. Let’s now turn to the recently enacted tax reform legislation. As we mentioned earlier, the strong 2017 results from our operating businesses were complemented by tax reform. As a result of a one-time deemed repatriation tax related to the legislation, the dividends we received from AB InBev last year were tax-free on an adjusted basis and lowered our 2017 adjusted tax rate. Beginning in 2018 and going forward, our results will benefit from the lower 21% U.S. federal statutory corporate rate and lower taxes on AB InBev dividends. Let’s turn to our guidance for 2018. We expect to deliver full-year 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.90 to $4.03 per share from a 2017 adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.39. This range represents a growth rate of 15% to 19% from 2017 and reflects expected higher net earnings as a result of tax reform net of strategic long-term investments we are making in our business. These investments are focused on key areas of long-term growth including innovative product development and launches including iQOS, regulatory science, equity enhancements to our brands, retail fixtures, and future retail concepts. For example, our guidance reflects both anticipated investments in the iQOS lead market and equity enhancements designed to help stabilize Marlboro’s share. Our 2018 plan includes reinvestment of approximately one-third of the total tax reform benefit we are receiving with a moderating level of investment in subsequent years. We believe this balanced approach will deliver annual adjusted diluted EPS growth rates above our long-term 7% to 9% aspiration through 2020. Before turning the call over to Billy, today we announce my decision to retire later this year when I turn 65. I’ll step down following our annual shareholder meeting in May after 25 years of service with the company. Though this change won’t occur until May, let me say a word about it, and most especially about Howard and Billy. Through its long-term succession planning process, the board has elected Howard Willard to serve as the company’s next Chairman and CEO. Howard is immensely qualified to lead Altria, having served in numerous leadership positions during his 25-year career with us. Billy Gifford has been elected to serve as Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, reflecting his leadership and the valuable contributions he’s made to our company. I just can’t imagine two leaders more qualified and ready to take our company forward. Howard and Billy, with the other talented members of our leadership team have been key contributors to the strategies that have delivered our strong results for the last several years. I firmly believe our business is well positioned for future success and I’m confident we have the right leadership in Howard, Billy and the team to deliver continuing winning results. Now here’s Billy with more detail on our performance.
William Gifford:
Thanks Marty, and good morning everyone. Let’s start with some further color on the smokable product segment. For the full year, smokable segment reported cigarette shipment volume declined 5.1% primarily driven by the industry’s rate of decline, retail share declines, and one fewer shipping day. When adjusted for calendar differences, PM USA’s cigarette shipment volume declined by an estimated 5% and total industry cigarette volumes declined by 4%. The fourth quarter reported cigarette shipment volume numbers were especially noisy with inventory movements, declining by 8.9%. When adjusted for inventor movements, PM USA’s cigarette shipment volume declined by an estimated 6.5%. Total industry cigarette volume declined by an estimated 4.5%. The cigar business continues to perform extremely well. For the full year, cigar volumes grew nearly 10% as Black & Mild volumes grew 10.7%. For the full year, smokable segment adjusted OCI margins expanded by three percentage point to 51.2%, driven primarily by higher pricing and lower SG&A expense. In the fourth quarter, adjusted OCI margins increased by 3.2 percentage points to 49.9%, primarily due to higher pricing, lower cost and lower promotional investments, partially offset by higher resolution expense. In the smokeless segment, USSTC’s reported shipment volume declined by 1.4% for the full year, reflecting in significant part lost volume from the voluntary recall. After adjusting for trade inventory movements, USSTC estimates that adjusted smokeless products shipment volume declined by 2% for the year. In the fourth quarter, smokeless segment volumes declined by six-tenths of a percent. After adjusting for trade inventory movement, USSTC estimates that adjusted smokeless products shipment volume declined by 2.5%. USSTC estimates that smokeless products category volume was essentially unchanged over the past six months. Smokeless products segment full-year adjusted OCI margins expanded by 3.4 percentage points to 67.8% driven primarily by higher pricing and lower cost, partially offset by unfavorable mix. In the fourth quarter, adjusted OCI margins increased by 8.7 percentage points to 68.1% due primarily to the same factors. Turning to our alcohol assets, for the full year wine segment adjusted OCI declined 12% due primarily to lower volume. In the fourth quarter, Ste. Michelle’s adjusted OCI was essentially unchanged from the year ago period. In beer, fourth quarter adjusted equity earnings from our investment in Anheuser-Busch InBev were $251 million, reflecting AB InBev’s third quarter results which it reported in October. As a reminder, a year ago we had essentially no adjusted fourth quarter equity earnings from our beer investment as a result of the one quarter reporting lag. Marty mentioned tax reform, so let me take a moment to explain this in a bit more detail. There were three main effects of tax reform on our results and ongoing business. First, in 2017 we revalued our net deferred tax liabilities to reflect the new lower rate. We also incurred a one-time tax related to our share of accumulated earnings from our historic beer investment, often called a deemed repatriation tax. The net tax benefit of these items is reflected in our reported results and we’ve included more details on our housekeeping page posted to altria.com. Second, beginning in 2017 and going forward, we’ll benefit from lower taxes on AB InBev dividends we receive. Third, we expect our 2018 adjusted tax rate to be between 23% and 24%, primarily due to the lower corporate tax rate and lower taxes on AB InBev dividends. Turning to our share repurchase program, we repurchased more than $2.9 billion in shares in 2017, including approximately $558 million in the fourth quarter, leaving $18 million in the program as of December 31. We subsequently completed the program in January, and yesterday the board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program which we expect to complete by the end of 2018. We expect 2018 full-year capital expenditures to be between $200 million and $250 million and depreciation and amortization expenses of approximately $210 million. That concludes our prepared remarks, and Marty and I are now happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I’ll remind you that today’s earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We’ve also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory, and other housekeeping items. With that, Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator instructions] Our first question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Chris Growe:
Hi, good morning.
Martin Barrington :
Hi Chris.
Chris Growe:
Hi, and Marty, was surprised to see the news this morning, but wanted to wish you well. It’s obviously very well deserved.
Martin Barrington:
Thanks Chris.
Chris Growe:
Just had a couple questions very quickly. We haven’t heard, other than maybe a press release, from Philip Morris, just kind of the assessment of the TPSAC meeting last week. I guess it’s a bit of a mixed result that came out of the meeting in terms of the voting there, and I realize it’s not a binding decision, but maybe we could get your thoughts on how that process went and how you’re looking at 2018. It sounds like you do hopefully expect to launch that throughout the year.
Martin Barrington:
Yes. Look, it’s been widely covered and analyzed, and I agree with much of what has been written about it. Chris, I think the best way to see it is it’s an important step forward in the process that’s required to get an MRTP approval, which we continue to believe will be the case. I thought that the teams who presented did an amazingly good job of presenting the science and the evidence and in responding to questions. I thought it was extremely important that the TPSAC was convinced, very thoroughly convinced obviously, that iQOS significantly reduces exposure to constituents of concern, so we’re looking forward to continuing to work with PMI and the FDA on that. Our view is that it had, if anything, a positive effect on the PMTA application.
Chris Growe:
That’s great, thank you. Then just a question for you about your investments you’re making in 2018. I think you have a broad array of areas in which you’re investing, and obviously the tax benefit allows for that. I’m curious as we think about, without getting too specific of course, but you have a lot of investments, say reduced- risk product, a lot of activity this year, as well as investments back into the underlying business. Is there any way you can better characterize where you’re putting--is most of the incremental investment dollar going behind reduced risk products and MRTPAs and that kind of thing, or is it more behind the base business?
Martin Barrington:
It’s both. We tried to articulate it both in the release and then in our remarks, Chris, but I can try to give you an inflection point of two if it will help, within the bounds of trying to be wise about competition. We have several areas that we’ve called out, so if you look at innovative products, which is obviously a significant step forward for us, we have investments in there for the iQOS launch - that’s our plan, we expect to get that approval, and so we’ve put investment there. We’re going to expand MarkTen Elite, which is a pod-based product, and there’s going to be investment there. You’ll remember from the investment day, for example, that Brian Quigley was talking about an expansion of our Verve product, and all of that of course has to be supported by regulatory science, so those of you who watched the TPSAC I think now understand the importance of having very good science done and good clinical trials, and that all takes investment. In the core, what we’re trying to do is make sure that the long-term equity of our brands is strong. That’s why we have the successful business we have, so whether it’s the national expansion of Marlboro Ice or what I described in the remarks around Benson & Hedges or improving our digital platform, those are all areas that we invest in but we now have some benefits from the tax reform, so it’s a good year to make those further investments because they will pay long-term returns for shareholders. So I don’t want to get into numbers, as you can appreciate, Chris, but those are the areas we’re thinking about.
Chris Growe:
I appreciate that, thank you .
Operator:
Your next question comes from Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong:
Thank you, good morning.
Martin Barrington:
Hi Judy.
Judy Hong:
Best wishes to you from me as well, Marty. I guess going back to investments and guidance, because I think that given Marlboro’s relatively soft share performance in 2017, there’s a lot of people concerned that this investment implies potential for changes in terms of how you’re thinking about pricing or promotion. I guess if you could just maybe elaborate on that not being the case, because it sounds like a lot of it is equity and innovation driven activity. Then when you think about Marlboro, you talked about California and elevated competitive activity, so share performance for Marlboro outside of California and how do you expect the share performance to progress in 2018, because obviously you’re going to start to lap the California tax in April of this year.
Martin Barrington:
Sure. I think your description is a good one about the investments, which is that it’s going to be equity and innovation-driven. Our strategy continues to be to maximize income in the smokable segment while maintaining momentum. Momentum is best measured over time, I think, and it’s best measured over multiple metrics. Share is one, and it’s important, but it’s not the only one, so I won’t reprise this in full because I know you know it, but when we look at it, it’s equity, it’s demographics and its profitability. Marlboro is in really good shape, but you heard me call out unique challenges. When California, a market of that size has a $2 per pack SET increase all at once, it disrupted the market there. The good news is that in the fourth quarter, Marlboro’s share stabilized in California, so we’re hopefully now in the section where we can reset from that base. What we’re trying to do is stabilize Marlboro share, which I believe the team has excellent plans to do, and some of the remarks we’ve already made about that. That’s the objective, but it’s always done within the context of the strategy, which is to maximize income. So it’s about equity, it’s about innovation. Of course you have to compete, but we’re mindful of how the category operates for us.
Judy Hong:
Okay, then just going back to guidance, I know it’s an unusual year just because you’ve got this tax benefit, but if we kind of strip out the tax benefit, given the reinvestment, it actually does imply very little, if at all, earnings growth. I’m just curious, number one, had there not been tax reform, would you have actually guided to kind of a flat year in 2018, and as shareholders - and I think this is probably the more important question - as shareholders, how do you think they should assess whether these investments are really paying off? I mean, is it really about earnings growth being above your long-term targets? Would top line growth have to accelerate more meaningfully? Just understanding how you would recommend to kind of assess whether these investments are actually the right investments.
Martin Barrington:
Well, I’m not going to tear its constituent parts apart, as you can appreciate, but I think the best evidence of what we would have done absent the tax reform is what we have done, which is we have grown at about an 8% adjusted EPS growth rate through thick and thin. We obviously have the benefit of the tax reform, but what we’ve tried to do is to be thoughtful about it so that we can make the investments that are appropriate for the long term, reward shareholders--my goodness, 15 to 19% guidance at the adjusted EPS line, and remember Judy, it’s off a higher base of 339, so we think that’s the right thing to do. There will be some variability at the operating company income line because we make investments, and as you know, depending upon when they hit and the timing of each quarter, what I would suggest to investors is they just look past that because we continue to have strong operating companies that are consistent in their strategies, and we’re guiding to 15 to 19% EPS growth. Then even though we don’t guide past ’18, we knew there would be interest in understanding what might happen in ’19 and ’20, and that’s why we made the comment we did about we would expect to moderate the investments after that, so investors should expect that as well. I hope that’s helpful to you, but I don’t want to tear apart the adjusted guidance.
Judy Hong:
Okay, thank you.
Martin Barrington:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Adam Spielman with Citi.
Adam Spielman:
Hi. First of all, my congratulations on your retirement. I hope it goes very well.
Martin Barrington:
Thank you, Adam.
Adam Spielman:
Just very quick to you, there was a question that Judy asked that didn’t get answered, which is an interesting one. It’s how we should judge the success or not of the investments. I suppose one way of thinking about that is in terms of Marlboro market share. You’ve used the term stabilize, and I guess the question is if at the end of 2018 you had the same market share as you had in 4Q17, that to my mind would be stabilized, but I would have thought you want to see it sort of pull up towards the high 43s as opposed to just staying at around 43%. I guess that’s one question, and I do have a completely separate follow-up question on the tax.
Martin Barrington:
Okay, let me take the first one then, Adam. I think when you are declining throughout 2017, the first order of business is to get it stabilized, so I think that’s the sensible thing to do. The way that we’re going to do that is through equity investments and other means that I’ve already described, so I won’t repeat that. I also think that it is helpful for people to remember that share is one of four measures that we use to measure the brand health, and so that’s another way to answer Judy’s question, which is how is Marlboro’s equity, how are its demographics, what is the profitability that it generates? So those are good metrics, along with share, I think, to gauge the brand health. I won’t repeat again to you what you already know, which is those metrics are all very quite strong. We had a unique year with the share and we’re addressing it.
Adam Spielman:
That’s fair enough. Then turning to the tax, obviously the national tax rate has gone to 21%. You’re suggesting you’re going to have a tax rate of 23 to 24. I was just wondering if you could highlight why--you know, what the difference is between that 21% national rate and the 23, 24 that you expect to have.
William Gifford:
Yes Adam, the major difference there between those two numbers that you’re quoting is state tax impact. That’s an all-in number for us.
Adam Spielman:
Fine, okay. Thank you very much.
Martin Barrington:
All right, good to hear from you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.
Bonnie Herzog:
Thanks, good morning, and congratulations on your retirement, Marty. You’ll be missed.
Martin Barrington:
Thanks Bonnie, appreciate that.
Bonnie Herzog:
My first question is on Marlboro. I guess I wanted to hear from you guys if you were surprised with the magnitude of the sequential deterioration of the brand’s share performance in the quarter, and then how have some of your new line extensions been performing on the brand, such as Marlboro Ice?
Martin Barrington:
Well let me take the second part first. It’s early, as you know, and I think you had a discussion with us at investor day about that. We continue to work through the effects of California, is the honest answer on the share question, and remember we’ve got a quarter to go to lap it in 2018. But again, I’d encourage people to think about this over the long term. Again, I looked back over the last six years - on average, we gained about a tenth. In some years it went up a lot, and then the questions were about are you overheating Marlboro, and now it’s going down because of California and people get concerned about it. The brand health is strong, we have excellent new innovation that we’re bringing to the brand. I think the team has very good plans for 2018, and that’s how we’re thinking about it, and I think we’re going to have a strong year in 2018.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay, and then switching gears a bit, just on PMTA. I was hoping you could give us an indication of where you think the FDA might be in its review of your PMCA for iQOS. I’m just trying to get a sense of the 180 day clock and has it stopped or restarted along the way, so just trying to get a sense of when you might expect to hear a decision on that. Then do you guys think that the outcome of the TPSAC meeting, given how the panel voted and the conversation, do you think that will have any bearing on the PMTA review process itself, just in terms of either the outcome or even timing?
Martin Barrington:
Yes, so on the timing, I wish I could give you more but it’s kind of a process that’s within FDA, so I really don’t have an insight to share with you on that other than the nominal timeline that’s in the statute, and of course the activity that FDA has undertaken on it. I mentioned to another caller that we came away from the TPSAC believing that the team did an excellent job of presenting the case for the MRTP, and we remain very optimistic about that. I don’t think any damage was done at all to the PMTA - if anything, I mean, the TPSAC panel, which is after all an advisory panel, concluded that it reduced exposure relative to conventional cigarettes, and I would think that’s an important thing that FDA will take into account in looking at the PMTA application.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay, and if I could just squeeze in one final question before I drop, I’d love to get your take on the consumer and what you’re seeing right now with the consumer, especially in terms of some growth we’re seeing behind the deep dish counter, maybe four tier cig volume, and then your expectations for the consumer in this interesting year with tax reform and potential greater disposable income, especially for your demographic.
Martin Barrington:
Sure. I’ll give you the headline, then I’ll give you ledger. The headline is I think we’re net positive, okay? There are a number of continuing positive factors for our consumer. You know what they are, of course - low unemployment, high consumer confidence including for our consumer. We do see some wage gains starting to flow through, including with some minimum wage increases. Housing starts remain pretty stable, indeed maybe up a tick, and it could be that tax reform will help our consumer - we certainly are hoping so. So I think those are all strong drivers. There are a few things that we watch. Naturally, we watch the excise tax environment. We’re watching c-store trends and we’re watching gas prices, so we do this every month and we look at all of those, but where we are right now, I think it’s net positive. We’re a long way into an economic uptick, but net-net I think we’re pretty positive on the consumer.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay, thank you.
Martin Barrington:
All right, glad you called. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Vivien Azer with Cowen.
Vivian Azer:
Hi, good morning.
Martin Barrington:
Hi Vivien.
Vivian Azer:
I’ll also extend my congratulations to you, Marty. Two questions for me, please. First, on the comment on above algorithm EPS growth through 2020, I just wanted to be clear, that’s in each of the next three years? It’s not just a function of ’18 being above algorithm, so as you kind of think about the average growth through 2020, it’s going to be above 7 to 9?
Martin Barrington:
I think I’ll stick to what I said so I don’t trip a wire here about guiding beyond the year in which we’re guiding. I really have given you about as much as we can say about that without going astray there. What we’re trying to communicate is because of the significant effect of tax reform, how we are thinking about it, not just for ’18 but for ’19 and ’20, but I don’t want to guide for ’19 or ’20. You just have to indulge me, Vivien, I’m sorry.
Vivian Azer:
Certainly, you can’t fault me for trying, though.
Martin Barrington:
No, I don’t. I don’t fault you at all.
Vivian Azer:
I wanted to follow up on Bonnie’s question, not necessarily about the consumer, and all of that makes a ton of sense, but specifically on your outlook for category volumes both in cigarettes and MST, and in particular on the latter. In MST, if you could offer any thoughts on cross-category elasticity and the interaction with either cigarettes or e-cigarettes, given the volume decline for the category. Thanks.
Martin Barrington:
Sure. We have some internal models on that, but I do think it’s a fair conclusion that you do have movement between--you know, when an adult tobacco consumer is poly-using products. I think the--you know, we estimate the category growth in smokeless on a six-month trailing basis, it’s kind of flattish. It’s probably due to two principal things. The first is price effects - there has been some pricing, including from excise taxes, and interplay between the categories, and I would call out in particular vapor. We’ve seen this once before and it looks to us like there may be some interplay between cigarette smokers, for example, who may be going to vapor instead of to smokeless. That said, when I look at how UST did in a year with flattish volumes for the industry, it’s ability to grow more than 11% and to keep Copenhagen growing despite a recall on top, that was really a testament to the job they did, and I commend the UST team.
Vivian Azer:
So just to be a little bit more specific then, do you think it’s fair to think of the MST category as flat now? I mean, obviously 5% growth, that was a long time ago at this point, but even 2 to 3, is that reasonable anymore?
Martin Barrington:
I don’t know. You know, we can only look at the data that we have, and we try to do it over a six-month basis, Vivien, because there’s a lot movement up and down that distorts the numbers. But for the last six-month period it was flattish. I can’t recall what it was on the last call, but it was in that range, I believe, so I can’t predict what it’s going to be but we’re watching it carefully, because there is a lot of movement, I think, with the consumer within the categories.
Vivian Azer:
Understood, thanks very much.
Martin Barrington:
All right, thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Nik Modi with RBC.
Russ Miller:
Hi, good morning. This is Russ Miller on for Nic. Congrats Marty on your retirement.
Martin Barrington:
Thank you.
Russ Miller:
We were wondering if you could provide more color on the competitive activity you mentioned in the release. Outside of California, is the competitive activity isolated to a certain geography or more broad? Any color there would be helpful.
Martin Barrington:
Sure. Well, ’17 was lively, I would say, on the competitive front. We had a lot of product expansions by competitors, including on multiple SKUs. Some of them were regional. I think that’s actually good insight into how the category is working increasingly, which is we tend to talk about all the national numbers but we do see regional activity, and we see some activity, for example, in chains. A few chains have gotten behind some discount products and that puts pressure on everybody’s brand, including ours, but you don’t really see it affecting us - the discount, that is - at the national level. Certainly in the southeast we have some areas where there are products that are very significantly priced below our products, and that puts pressure on everybody’s product. So I would say that it’s always competitive in our industry, and ’17 was no different. It may have been on the high end of what we’ve observed over the last couple of years.
Russ Miller:
Thank you, Marty, and could you provide any more detail on the MarkTen Bold rollout and what the early consumer response there is?
Martin Barrington:
Yes, it’s been very good. I mentioned I think in the remarks, Russ, that we’re now in 25,000 stores, and I think the consumer has reacted very well to the product and we like what we see with MarkTen Bold.
Russ Miller:
Thank you very much.
Martin Barrington:
Okay, thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley.
Matthew Grainger:
Great, thanks for the question, and congratulations Marty as well. We’ll miss having the opportunity to work with you.
Martin Barrington:
Thanks Matt.
Matthew Grainger:
I guess first question, just on the TPSAC meeting and the MRTP process, I know you’ve spoken about this a little bit and I jumped on the call late, so apologies if I missed anything. Just curious, lessons that you learned from those discussions and the initial phase of the process so far, and not specifically to predict the outcome of the iQOS application, more just broader learnings that you can apply to try and streamline the process for other applications you plan to file, like for Copenhagen for instance in the future.
Martin Barrington:
I think that’s a good question. I think we learn every time we go there, and I think you and I may even have discussed our presence during the Swedish match hearings and what we learned from that. Look, I think one takeaway is that the preparation really matters, and I thought that the teams were outstanding in that regard. I thought that they had complete mastery of the subject matter, they answered every question, I thought, very fully, but you can see the rigor that’s going to be applied. That’s probably the second insight, which is it is in the statute that these products should be approved. I continue to believe they are going to be approved, but there’s no question that the applicant has to carry that burden, and that’s how we’re preparing our applications because we want to get the products approved. I think it’s also useful to observe that there are TPSAC members and then the FDA itself, which will ultimately make the decision about whether it should be approved. I think that’s another insight about the meeting dynamic that one can learn from, because after all it is FDA that’s going to decide. But I think those are the insights, which is you need to have the science work done, you need to have a really good team that’s going to present it, you need to anticipate the questions that will come, and then you really have to make the case for your product. I continue to believe that’s going to happen, and that’s certainly what we’re working towards.
Matthew Grainger:
Okay, thanks Marty. One question just on the PM USA business, and you may have already said your piece on this, but I understand the comparative factors and the competitive dynamics that weighed on overall cigarette volumes, but I’m still just trying to understand the balance between the volume declines and the pricing realization during the quarter, the fact that promotional expenses were down, pricing was quite high. Is that--I understand that that’s one quarter in time, but it’s an unusual delivery of top line for you to have 78% price mix realization and volumes being down that much. Is there anything else you can add to why you chose to pull back on promotional expenses and felt that that was the right approach to the business in Q4?
Martin Barrington:
Well, it’s really the reallocation, I would say, rather than pulling back. Matt, it really is true that these things flow in and out of quarters and it’s really hard to extrapolate from that, but I’ll try to help you by referring to the full year numbers. So when I look at the smokable business, which again had the share challenge, we’ve got income growing at about 7%, above $8.5 billion. We’ve got good margin expansion of 3 percentage points to 51%. The volume hit us because obviously with a 4% industry decline and the share challenge, we took more of a volume decline than we would have liked, and we’ve already talked about Marlboro. So I’ve got net pricing for the year at about 5.9%. I would say that’s within the range, but it’s probably at the higher end of the range. The other thing I’d say about ’18, which may help, is PM USA has one more shipping day in ’18 than we had in ’17, so that’s how we look at it. I think they had a terrific year - not without its challenges, but in a segment that you run for income, I thought that they really did a good job.
Matthew Grainger:
Okay, thanks for the color.
Martin Barrington:
Thanks Matt. Good to hear from you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Jaffray.
Michael Lavery:
Thank you, and Marty, congrats to you. You’ll be missed.
Martin Barrington:
Thanks Michael.
Michael Lavery:
Just wanted to touch back on the promotion side. I think one thing noticeably absent from your list of investments for 2018 is price, which I think investors would be encouraged by. But just in terms of some of the flexibility that you have there, can you touch on maybe how you’re thinking about your positioning for Marlboro Ice? Will that have promotional spend or an introductory price, similar to how, say, Special Blend or Black first came onto the market?
Martin Barrington:
No, it’s going to have a mainline price, although we obviously will have offers to try to incent trial from competitive smokers.
Michael Lavery:
Okay, great. Thank you, that’s helpful. Then as you touch on some of the color on the next couple years, I realize you don’t want to guide anything there, but if iQOS is approved for marketing authorization this year and it gets into the market, it would presumably have a growing footprint over the next couple years. Would some of the ability to moderate the spending over that same period be because a lot of the science costs come upfront and it’s more 2018-heavy? Is that the right way to think about it?
Martin Barrington:
Well, I think there will be puts and takes. We have scenarios that we’ve built depending upon what happens in the lead market. Obviously if iQOS is a big hit, as we believe and hope it will be, we will expand it and scale it up and there will be costs associated with doing that. Most of the science work, I guess, would have been done on the PMTA under that scenario, but to the extent that further work needs to be done on the MRTP, we’ll just have to see how that goes. This is the dilemma for us - we try to help you all with your modeling, but for us to tell you all the puts and takes would be to tell you something that we don’t know until we see the year, so I’m trying to be careful about that.
Michael Lavery:
Fair enough, understood. Thank you very much.
Martin Barrington:
Okay Michael, thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.
Priya Ohri-Gupta:
Thank you for the question. Marty, congratulations on the retirement. Billy, I was wondering if we could just get some thoughts from you around how you’re thinking about your debt profile going forward. You have a couple of really chunky high coupon maturities this year and next year. Given some of the tax law changes, how should we think about your prioritization of paying those down versus refinancing those in the debt market? Thank you.
William Gifford:
Thanks for the question. As you know, when we look at the debt, you’ve seen us take advantage of marketplace conditions in the past. It’s all marketplace contingent. We have to assess the marketplace and decide what we’re going to do. If not, then we reach the maturity date and we go ahead and pay those off, so it really is marketplace dependent and I’m not going to get ahead of ourselves on that.
Priya Ohri-Gupta:
Thank you.
Operator:
Again if you would like to ask a question, please press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. Again, that’s star, one to ask a question. You do have a follow-up question from Adam Spielman with Citi.
Adam Spielman:
Thank you very much for the follow-up.
Martin Barrington:
Welcome back.
Adam Spielman:
Well, thank you! Thinking more about Marlboro, but I’d just like to return to the smokeless. If you think about Skoal and Cope sort of together, obviously your market share was down for the full year 90 basis points, partly due to the recall. It was down a bit more than that in 4Q, and you said--for Marlboro, you said the first order was to stabilize market share, but if we think of these two brands together, Cope and Skoal, how in broad terms do you think we should think about it playing out, because I guess there will also be some equity investments in those if I’m not wrong.
Martin Barrington:
Correct. We’re always investing in the equity of those brands, that’s right. I think the way to think about it--
Adam Spielman:
So how--sorry, go ahead, please.
Martin Barrington:
That’s all right. I think I have the thrust of your question, but if I don’t, ask me again. I think what you’re really asking is what’s the portfolio strategy there, and we’ve spoken about this in the past and it hasn’t changed. What we’re trying to do is to unleash Copenhagen because it wants to grow, it’s a terrific brand, and it’s the aspirational brand in the category. We do have a brand that has large share in Skoal, and it has a role to play in the portfolio particularly with respect to appealing to adult smokers who may want to come into dipping, and that’s why it has snus, for example, and blends. But what we’re trying to do is to increase the profitability of the overall portfolio, and we are doing that by changing the promotional mix on Skoal. So when you put those two constituent parts together, that’s why you produce a year, for example, where you have income growth of greater than 11%. It’s because Copenhagen is growing and because Skoal is more profitable.
Adam Spielman:
But when I look at the 4Q market share for Cope, I mean, I understand the point about Skoal, but it was flat, and presumably you’d like it to grow, not be flat.
Martin Barrington:
It did - it grew half a share point for the year, so that’s why we try not to get too bound up in the quarter.
Adam Spielman:
Okay, thank you.
Martin Barrington:
All right, thanks for calling back.
Operator:
Thank you, and at this time I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Marshall for closing comments.
Bill Marshall:
Thank you all for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you, this concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Unverified Participant Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc. William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd. Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2017 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall (00:40), Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Unverified Participant:
Thank you, Lori. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO, to discuss Altria's 2017 third quarter and first nine months business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results, which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2016. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both the reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affects the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release. Now, I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Bill (01:59). Good morning, everybody. Altria delivered outstanding financial performance in the third quarter contributing to a strong first nine months of 2017. We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share of 9.8% in the third quarter and 5.5% for the first nine months. As we expected, our earnings growth is accelerating as we move through the second half of the year. We continue to return a significant amount of cash to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchase as Billy will describe in more detail, and in August, our board of directors voted to increase our quarterly dividend by 8.2%, and that's the 51st increase in the past 48 years. Our core tobacco businesses were the primary drivers of our earnings growth. In the quarter, the smokeable products segment delivered 7.7%, adjusted operating company's income growth, a strong pricing and lower cost more than offset volume declines. For the first nine months, smokeable products segment adjusted operating company's income grew 7.4%. Reported cigarette volumes were challenged in the quarter due to the industry's rate of decline, trade inventory movements, retail share declines and one fewer shipping day. We're very pleased with the financial performance in the smokeable segment. Our strategy continues to be to maximize income while maintaining momentum on Marlboro and Black & Mild over the long-term. As you know, we view momentum has continued strength across various brand metrics including equity, demographics, profitability and retail share. Marlboro continues to have category-leading equity, strong demographics and is, of course, highly profitable. As for retail share, Marlboro declined by 0.5 share point to 43.2% in the quarter and 0.3 for the first nine months to 43.4%. So let's look at what's happening here beginning with California. As we described in the second quarter call, we expected the dynamics related to the California $2-per-pack SCT increase to dampen Marlboro's share through the back half and that's continuing to happen. You are familiar with Marlboro's over-indexed share in California at over 50%, and Marlboro thus continues to experience disproportionate share impact during this period due to the SCT increase. Second, there was elevated competitive activity in the quarter, including high levels of promotional spending and a competitive brand launch. In fact, there have been five such launches by major competitors this year, many with multiple packings behind them. Those launches and the promotional resources accompanying them have increased the short-term share pressure on Marlboro, the share leader. Share performance is best measured over years, not quarters, of course, but it's important to understand that PM USA is addressing Marlboro's recent share declines. First, it is reallocating certain marketing resources, including in California. These have included changes to promotional resources and product expansions. For example, PM USA has revised its retail trade programs to focus retailers on the profitability Marlboro brings to their stores. In this process, PM USA has reallocated resources from underperforming retail program options to promotions that support maintaining Marlboro's leadership position. Second, PM USA recently announced the expansion of Marlboro Black label in California and Washington state. Marlboro Black label features the latest in Marlboro's packaging innovation, its exclusive soft touch technology. We expect these actions to help stabilize Marlboro's share while staying on strategy to maximize income. Look for more product news from PM USA at our Investor Day next week. Moving to the smokeless product segment. USSTC delivered outstanding adjusted operating company's income growth of 15.7% in the third quarter as higher net pricing and lower costs more than offset lower shipment volume. The smokeless product segment delivered 6.3% adjusted operating company's income growth for the first nine months of 2017. Copenhagen's retail share grew 0.2% to 33.9% in the third quarter and by 0.6% for the first nine months to 33.6%. On a combined basis, Copenhagen and Skoal retail share declined 1.2 share points in the third quarter and 0.9 share points for the first nine months driven by Skoal declines. These results reflect USSTC's continued focus on growing Copenhagen while refining its Skoal investments to enhance its profitability. In e-vapor, Nu Mark grew MarkTen's third quarter volume by more than 50%, driven by expanded distribution and category growth. MarkTen had a third quarter national retail share of approximately 13.5% in mainstream channels. And Nu Mark recently announced plans to expand the distribution of MarkTen Bold to approximately 15,000 additional stores in the fourth quarter. In heated tobacco, the team at PM USA has made significant progress on its commercialization plans for IQOS, which we're excited to share with you next week at our Investor Day. Another focus of our Investor Day will be the regulatory environment. As everyone knows, in July, FDA announced its comprehensive plan for U.S. tobacco and nicotine regulation. FDA stated its belief that this approach will strike an appropriate balance between regulation and encouraging development of innovative tobacco products that may be less risky than cigarettes. We're encouraged by this important evolution in the agency's stance on innovation, having long advocated for a comprehensive regulatory policy that acknowledges the continuum of risk. We also support FDA's stated intention to issue regulations, outlining what information it expects to be included in product applications and in reports to demonstrate substantial equivalence. Obviously, establishing the rules before any decisions are taken is simple regulatory fairness. And we further support Commissioner Gottlieb's direction to the Center for Tobacco Products to reconsider its approach to substantial equivalence for provisional products, a process we previously have described as increasingly onerous and expensive. Finally, FDA also stated its intention to explore a product standard relating to nicotine; a possibility since the act became law in 2009, and for which PM USA has been preparing. As the FDA itself acknowledged, developing such a standard will be a long and complex process requiring significant stakeholder comment and engagement, and again we'll say more about all this next week. In summary, we're very pleased with our performance through what's been a challenging nine months. Thus, we reaffirm our 2017 full-year guidance of 7.5% to 9.5% adjusted diluted EPS growth. And here's Billy for more detail on our performance.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with some further color on the smokeable products segment. Cigarette industry volumes declined an estimated 3.5% in the third quarter. The smokeable products segment's reported cigarette shipment volume declined by 6.2%, primarily driven by the industry's rate of decline, trade inventory movements, retail share declines and one fewer shipping day. When adjusted for inventory movements and calendar differences, PM USA's cigarette shipment volume declined by an estimated 4.5%. The better look is probably the first nine months, where industry cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 3.5% and PM USA's cigarette shipment volume decreased 4% from both a reported and adjusted basis. The cigar business continues to perform extremely well, delivering volume growth of 6.6% in the third quarter and 10.6% for the first nine months. Smokeable segment adjusted OCI margins expanded by 4.5 percentage points to 52.2% in the third quarter, driven by higher pricing and lower SG&A and resolution expense. The favorable cost comparison is driven in part by California ballot spending in the year-ago period and NPM-related credits booked in this quarter. For the first nine months, adjusted OCI margins expanded by 3 percentage points to 51.6%. In the smokeless products segment, industry volume grew by an estimated 0.5% over the past six months. After adjusting for trade inventory movements and other factors, USSTC estimates that it's adjusted smokeless products shipment volume declined by 3% in the third quarter and 1.5% for the first nine months. Smokeless products segment adjusted OCI margins increased by 6.8 percentage points in the quarter to 70.3%, driven primarily by higher net pricing and lower cost, partially offset by unfavorable mix. For the first nine months, smokeless products segment adjusted OCI margins expanded by 1.6 percentage points to 67.7%, primarily due to higher pricing, partially offset by unfavorable mix. Turning to our alcohol assets. Wine segment adjusted OCI declined 5.3% in the quarter due primarily to higher cost. Ste. Michelle's volume trends improved in the third quarter relative to the first half and were essentially unchanged compared to the year-ago level. In beer, third quarter adjusted equity earnings from our investment in Anheuser-Busch InBev were $203 million, reflecting AB InBev's second quarter results which were reported in July. I'll wrap up by highlighting our cash returns to shareholders. Through the first nine months of 2017, we paid shareholders more than $3.5 billion in dividends and increased the dividend in August. We repurchased nearly $2.4 billion in shares, leaving $576 million in the program as of September 30. We expect to complete the program by the end of the second quarter of 2018. That concludes our prepared remarks, and Marty and I are now happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. With that, Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
. Your first question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi Chris.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. I thought I'd just start with a question for you on California, really on the smokeable business and some of the challenges you had there around elasticity. So I just wanted to understand did you see an improvement in the quarter or do you expect the kind of the consumer to adjust to these price a little more, you'll see less elasticity going forward? And if I could ask related to that, does the new product pipeline from Marlboro, is there more – it sounds like there's more to come, we'll hear that next week, but just to understand how the new products have been contributing to potential market share improvements for that brand?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. Good questions, both. So we've discussed previously, Chris, that elasticities with respect to cigarettes and we've had big jolts before like the one that we've experienced in California. And what happens is, as you know, there's an immediate disruption and you get a deep decline, and then it comes back to the curve that we've observed over the years, which is about negative 0.3. So a lot of it depends on how big the shock is California $2 a pack, after not having had an increase for decades, really. So it's coming back. We expect it will come back to where it is on the curve and we see some improvement there. But it's going to take some time. It was a big shock to the system. And you see that in the numbers, I think. So on Marlboro, we're very pleased actually with Marlboro's product pipeline. You see that what we try to do is we try to bring out SKUs to the market where we think that there's a niche where Marlboro can gain some business from competitive smokers. We're also, frankly, trying to create news in the marketplace about Marlboro to keep its momentum moving forward, and so we're going to talk about this next week. And I mentioned, I think, Black label already in the remarks.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And to just a follow-up for you then on – you have a larger than expected price increase you put through recently. So I suspect there's some areas you want to invest in, having more pricing coming through. Can you talk about that broadly or perhaps just specifically where you want to invest in some areas that you can fund, perhaps an advance on RRPs or that kind of thing before that may become an opportunity for a launch next year?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I won't comment too specifically, Chris. But I think we've called out several areas before. We are building a very, very strong competitive advantage in digital marketing and we continue to invest there. We continue to invest in the equity behind our brands. And obviously, as the FDA has now set the new direction with respect to reduced-risk products, you have to make investments there in order to compete effectively. And those are some areas that we obviously have been investing in and expect to invest further.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for your time this morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen & Company.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Vivien.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
So, I was hoping you can touch on, please, the evolution of your inventories as well as wholesaler inventories. I recognize that it ebbs and flows quarter-to-quarter for a variety of reasons; taxes, price increases, new product launches. But as I look at the absolute levels of inventory in the system, both for you and for the industry as a whole, I don't think I've ever seen numbers this high before. And for your inventories, it's going to be the third quarter of a sequential build. So any color on that would be really helpful. Thanks.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. Thanks, Vivien. Vivien, this is Billy. You're right, the third quarter ended a bit higher than if you look at it on a historical basis. But as you mentioned, when we look at this over a longer period of time, they tend to ebb and flow. It's really when the wholesalers decide to take inventory. At times, it can be when the holiday occurs in a quarter. But again, we expect that to balance out as we move through the rest of the year.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
But anything else that you could offer really because it doesn't seem like it's just a one quarter phenomenon if it's three quarters of sequential increases? I mean it's not quite close to a doubling versus where you were second quarter of 2016.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I guess the only thing I'd add to that, Vivien, has been that the wholesalers have strategies around when they build their inventory in, when they decide to take their inventory down, which they're free, of course, to do.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay, that's fair. Then just in terms of Marlboro and perhaps we'll hear more about this when we see you at the Analyst Day, but any incremental color just in terms of the composition of some of the share evolution, either by price segment within the Marlboro brand family or by geography, anything outside of California to call out, perhaps reflecting back on some of the commentary from last quarter's call around some softness in the Rust Belt and the Southeast? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, sure. So I'm glad we're going to see you next week and we are going to talk about Marlboro in some detail there. I think what we would say is you have to assess it in the context of the strategy, which is to maximize income. And so when we look at back at Marlboro shares, we don't decompose it down to the SKU level, despite I know there's quite a lot of interest in that; we don't do it for competitive reasons. But if we go back to Marlboro share gains, for example, during the period 2011 through 2016, we actually gained ahead of what the historical rate had been. It was about 1.7 percentage points of share gain. And you can see in the first nine months, we've given back about 0.3 share points. So I think the reasons are pretty straightforward. It is California for the reasons we just finished discussing. There were all these competitive launches and then I think there is a market dynamic change, which is – because of industry consolidation, there are very few brands left, frankly, that don't have marketing support on them. So Marlboro used to gain share by picking up some of the share from those unprotected brands as did other competitive brands – that's a market dynamic change. But, overall, I think we're on strategy, particularly when you see the income performance. So we'll talk more about the Marlboro brand family next week. We just don't break it down sort of at the level that you're asking. I hope you can appreciate that.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Certainly, I can. Thank you so much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
My question, I hope you can answer. So if you looked at Marlboro outside California, so the other 49 states, my guess is you've lost market share in the first nine months but to a lesser extent. I was wondering if you can help quantify that since you're trying to get rid of the California effect?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
0.3 share points.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Thank you very much. Secondly, turning to smokeless. You obviously gained margin very strongly. And one of the things you said is in the nine months, it was mainly driven by price increases. But in the final quarter we're talking about – the third quarter, there were also some cost saves. I was wondering if you could detail that. And also you've given some around color around competition in the smokeable, I was just wondering if you can give some color about the competition in the brand dynamics and what's really happening in smokeless because you haven't so far and I'd really appreciate that.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. Let's try both. So I think one of the principal contributors at the cost line was, remember in the year-ago comp, we had California ballot spending, Adam.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Yeah.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
And that came out obviously in the comp and that was a significant delta in the year-over-year comp. I would say that the competition in the smokeless side of the business is competitive. We obviously are doing great with Copenhagen. You know our strategy on Copenhagen and Skoal but we have a competitor that's got a brand there, and there were significant promotions in the quarter. I think that accounts for it as well.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for your call.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Unknown Speaker:
Hey, everyone. It's Rita Joe (22:19) filling in for Judy.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
You're welcome. (22:23)
Unknown Speaker:
Thank you. So I have a question on the competitive activity that you're seeing in combustibles. Greatly appreciate the color on the call thus far, but digging a little bit deeper in terms of the increased competitor spending. Has it primarily been related to these new launches or is it behind the core flagship brands and how do you expect some of those competitive dynamics to persist over the next few quarters?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure, let me see if I can help you. I think the answer is, there was quite a lot of activity around new product launches. So we mentioned in our remarks, we've got, I think, five of them over the course of the year, which is higher than we typically see. It's also worth mentioning that it's just not five, there are multiple SKUs with the five, so you actually have a lot of SKUs coming into the marketplace. And as you know, in our category, because of the way we have marketing restrictions is the battle is at retail. People put promotional resources on them, including us, when we do this, to try to promote trial. And when you have smokers who are trying a new product, it puts pressure on the share leader on Marlboro. So that's our diagnosis of what's been happening; that and California, obviously.
Unknown Speaker:
Great. And then a follow-up on MarkTen. So the results were pretty positive this quarter, with volume growing more than 50%. So what are your expectations this year for e-vapor category growth? Clearly, it's accelerated a little bit this year versus what we've seen over the past couple of years and what are the plans behind further investment behind the MarkTen franchise?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. So on your last question, I'd invite you – either Judy will let you come to the Investor Day or you can certainly dial in, we're going to have a lot to say about our vapor business on Investment Day, and we've got exciting plans there. Look, the category has picked back up, as you say. The last number I saw, I think it looks like it's picked up maybe about 8% on a volume basis, higher on a dollar basis because you've got devices obviously which contribute to the dollar sales there. So as the technology gets better in vapor and those products become more acceptable to the consumer, we continue to see high trial and there is some stickiness as the products get better. So I think that's one of our key platforms for our innovative products and we're excited about the chance to continue to grow that business.
Unknown Speaker:
Great. Thanks so much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Jaffray.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Michael.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
I'm wondering if you could help us just get a sense for some of the timing on any potential IQOS approval. I know that the FDA accepted your PMTA application in August, I believe, and the targeted time from then is, I think, usually it's six months; I don't think they're bound to that. And, if I'm correct, I also think that sort of clock stops, so to speak, if they come back with quick questions and there's a dialogue back and forth which obviously we wouldn't have visibility on. But have you had a lot of interaction like that or what do you think you could give color-wise as far as what we should anticipate?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. First of all, I think the timelines that you called out are correct, and those haven't changed since our last discussion on that. And as you point out, they are nominal, to use that word, I guess, at the FDA. But I think that they're working hard on it; those are PMI applications, of course, it's assisted by us so you may want to speak to them as well about it. But we've been encouraged by the degree of interchange on those applications and I think maybe another milestone to be watching for is if there were to be a TPSAC hearing on the applications, Michael, which as you know, is part of the process. And so PMI, with our assistance, is getting ready for all those things and we are working really hard to be ready so that when that authorization comes, as we hope it does, that we can get to market quickly. But I think your understanding of the process is correct and I don't really have anything new to add except perhaps the possibility of a TPSAC hearing should they announce one.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay, great. Thanks. And then just on the buybacks, you've got a little over I think $750 million in this quarter. You've got an average close to that for the year, and you've got about $570 million something, I think, left in the authorization. Your cash balance relative to the third quarter is above average in the recent history. Would it be reasonable to assume you might conceivably finish ahead of the 2Q 2018 schedule and what would we relatively expect beyond that? I know it's at the discretion of the board, but is that something you think you have some upside to perhaps?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Michael, this is Billy. I won't forecast out what we're going to do in the future on share repurchase. To your point, we still have the $576 million left. We'll see how we progress with that before we take any action. But if we're going to take any, of course, we'll go to the board and we'll be sure to tell you when we do.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay, great. Thanks. And just one last one, for the corrective statement ads that you're going to be starting running next month, that's, I believe, around the $31 million cost. Can you just help us understand how to think about modeling that and is that an incremental expense and would it be spread evenly over the next year or so? How do we factor that into our numbers?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. So you remember when we actually proceeded with that case, that $31 million has already been accrued, and so those expenses, as we go through time, will be charged against the accrual.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling, Mike.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger of Morgan Stanley.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Matt.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Just had two quick questions. One, I guess with respect to some of the competitive dynamics in the smokeless business. You called out unfavorable mix as being one of the drivers of net revenue in the quarter and it's – I think that may be a factor that you don't typically call out in the release. Just wondering if you could elaborate on whether that's a byproduct of some of the competitive promotion that's going on or whether there are other factors driving that?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, Matt. Basically, if you look at the smokeless market, it has a couple of different price points that occur in the marketplace. And so it's just a mix of the volume that occurs at those 2 price points related to Copenhagen and Skoal.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay, understood. So is that something that was an outside impact from the quarter or is that a dynamic that you as being maybe a bit stickier as you've observed it over this year and going forward?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think if I recall correctly, Matt, we called it out a couple of times in the past. I wouldn't say anything was abnormal about this quarter than other quarters.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Billy. And then just from a category standpoint, a variety of peers across the CPG landscape have talked about C-store trends some more cautiously than others. So just curious if you were seeing any perceptible change or slow down in C-store activity within the tobacco category, specifically.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
No, we haven't. Although we're following it closely, because obviously we've been following other people's reporting on that. And we've been following the C-store dynamics. It just hasn't shown up in our category, Matt.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you, Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo. Bonnie, your line is open. Please state your question.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Bonnie.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. A question on the FDA's plan to reduce the levels of nicotine in combustible cigs. You touched on this and how you're thinking about it but I guess any more color on this would be really helpful given the pressure that's been on your stock. And then I know it's still very early to talk about, but could you touch on your capabilities to reduce nicotine levels in your tobacco leaves and the expected costs involved? I guess I'm trying to understand how complicated this might be and if you really have the capability to do this?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. So this is another topic that we're going to cover in some detail next week. So I don't want to put you off on your question but I'll give you a high-level sort of a lead-in, if you will. There's quite a lot to do, obviously, as you know of any nicotine standard or any other standard, for that matter. Wherever to be implemented, there has to be science and evidence-based, and in the nicotine area there's a lot of science that would have to be answered, so let me just call out a few for instance. So I think folks are going to have to understand how consumers might react to a nicotine standard, including the question of whether compensation would occur, because you obviously, from a public health point of view, wouldn't want people smoking more cigarettes to get their nicotine. There is no standard that is currently developed with respect to what the level should be or where it should be measured – is it in the aerosol or is it in the filler? How would it be implemented? Would it phased in over time or would it be done on a more immediate basis? Those are questions which have to be answered that are not answered yet; and the government has research going on that regard. As you might expect, our scientists are fully engaged in all the scientific questions, both tracking government research as well as doing our own research so that we're fully informed on those. There are big questions around technical achievability, which is an area that you're asking about. Now, the possibility of a standard around nicotine has been in the statute since 2009, so it won't surprise anyone to know that we have been looking at ways that we might meet any potential standard. You can look at product design, you can look at tobacco leaf treatments, you can look at tobacco seed technologies; most of which are proprietary, so I won't comment beyond them, but I think people should be assured that we have been looking at this. And then finally, I think another area that's going to have to be wrestled with is what about unintended consequences if a standard comes in? We're going to have to make sure that the market still works. So as you can tell, just from that high-level description, there's quite a lot that has to be wrestled to ground and again we'll talk more about that next week.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. That was really helpful. And I'll come next week to hear more.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
We're looking forward to seeing you.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I have another quick question, if I could, on Marlboro.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
You touched on this a lot. You mentioned that the Marlboro's equity is quite strong. So is there any more color you can give us on that or any metrics? I'm just trying to understand how you measure that and what you're looking at that we are not able to see.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
We tried to share that with you on a yearly basis. I think you'll remember, typically at CAGNY, we put up the equity scores. We do an equity study every year. I believe the last chart we put up, we called out that Marlboro's equity is at least 14 points higher than the next closest competitor, off of an already high base, and that Marlboro's equity has been improving over time. So that work is underway again, and as soon as we have an update to the equity study, I assume that we'll be updating you in due course. But its equity remains strong, there's no question about it, and you'll see it in the premium price it's able to command.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And then one final quick question on your debt levels. Your net debt-to-EBITDA is pretty low right now at around 1.5 times. And I know you guys don't have targets for this, but could you give us a sense of how you're thinking about current levels and your possible appetite for taking on more leverage?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, it's a good question. We'll end the quarter, Bonnie, at 1.3:1. From a standpoint of taking on additional debt, I think if we see the opportunity to do that, based on what the business needs are, we will. As you know, we generate after dividends about $1 billion in excess cash just from the normal operations in the business, so it's a really cash-generative machine that we have here in the operating companies. And so at this point, we're very happy with where we're at. You're right, we don't have a specific target number that we're looking at, but we definitely want to make sure we maintain investment grade.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. I'm just thinking, again a comment on the stock pressure, it could be a way to create values for shareholders, just even more aggressively buying back your stock at these lower levels. All right. Thank you.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
I understand, but you're...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right, Bonnie. Thanks.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hey, Nik.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey. So some of this stuff you might cover next week, so I look forward to seeing you guys then. But maybe if you could just give some thoughts on Nat Sherman, how it's doing? I guess, it's been over a year now since it's been in the portfolio, so I was just curious on how that's doing? The second question is, would it be a fair assumption to say that if IQOS have rolled out into the U.S. more broadly after the testing and all that kind of stuff, would be a lower margin than your overall portfolio just given the – it will have the same SCT, the same MSA, but perhaps you'll have to spend a little more to kind of build brand awareness? That was the second question. And then I have a third question after. I don't want to ask too many at once.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Yeah, we're going to talk about Nat Sherman next week. Just for precision, we acquired it in January of this year, so it hasn't been quite a year. I think we just talked about before what we've been doing is getting the product ready, getting the package ready. It's a huge whitespace opportunity for us as you know, Nik, and we've got plans to get that in distribution, and I think it's going to – I think you'll be interested to see what we have on Nat Sherman. For IQOS, well, for sure, when we launch IQOS, it's going to have a lower margin because we're going to be investing in it. But the idea, over time is, is that when you get to scale obviously, that you could have a nice margin business in IQOS. So we're working through all that. We're going to talk about IQOS in some significant detail as well next week.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
And then, I guess, the last question is kind of more of a broader question from looking across CPG. It seems like a big trend, there's kind of local assortment even in the U.S. And I'm wondering, Marty, given all of your very sophisticated relationships with distributors, with retailers, all your trade contracts, if there's a way for the company to optimize its assortment in different regions to kind of get the best out of the portfolio.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
The answer is yes, Nik. I think it's a very insightful question, and in fact, our sales team has been working on that project and others. I think as personalization becomes more important to the consumer and particularly with the analytical tools and the data sets that we now have that – take revenue growth management tools, for example, which we've deployed already in the smokeless business and are rolling it out across the rest of the businesses, it allows you the precision to do just that. It's an excellent question and we're working on it.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thanks a lot, Marty. See you next week.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling. Okay, I look forward to it.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Marshall (37:56) for closing comments.
Unverified Participant:
Thank you all for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Unverified Participant Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc. William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company, LLC Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd. Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. Patty Kanada - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Jennifer Kaplan - Bloomberg LP
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2017 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall (0:33), Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead.
Unverified Participant:
Thank you, Lisa. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO, and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO, to discuss Altria's 2017 second quarter and first half business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results, which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2016. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release. Now, I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, thanks Bill (1:56) and good morning everyone. Based on strong tobacco operating company performance, Altria delivered solid results in the second quarter and first half of 2017. The smokeable products segment generated strong income growth despite a large cigarette excise tax increase in California, and the smokeless products segment has largely rebounded from its first quarter voluntary product recall. We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share 4.9% in the second quarter and 3.3% for the first half of 2017. The smokeable products segment delivered 6.4% adjusted operating companies income growth in the second quarter as strong pricing more than offset volume declines and higher promotional investments. For the first half, smokeable products segment adjusted operating companies income grew 7.2%. As I mentioned, the smokeable segment's results were negatively impacted by California's $2 per pack cigarette excise tax increase, which went into effect on April 1. California is a high-volume state, previously accounting for approximately 7% of total U.S. cigarette industry volume. Following the tax increase, California's volume contribution dropped to 5% which drove total U.S. industry volume down approximately 4.5% in the quarter. In addition, Marlboro has a strong share in California of over 50%. Thus Marlboro was disproportionally impacted by the tax increase contributing to its decline of 0.3 of a national retail share point in the second quarter to 43.5%. We expect these dynamics will continue to dampen Marlboro's share through the back half. Outside of California, Marlboro's second quarter share remains stable, sequentially. Past experience shows that tax increases of this magnitude are most disruptive immediately following implementation, after which the rate of decline moderates. We continue to anticipate an approximate 1% negative impact on industry volumes for the full year as a result of the excise tax increases in California on April 1, and Pennsylvania last August. Looking to the back half of the year, PM USA recently announced the national expansion of Marlboro Black Menthol 72's, a product PM USA expects will further enhance Marlboro's position in the growing menthol segment and among adult smokers age 21 to 29. Moving to the smokeless products segment. USSTC has largely rebounded from its first quarter product recall. It delivered 9.8% adjusted operating companies income growth in the second quarter. USSTC grew smokeless products volume 1.4% in the quarter and gained retail share sequentially, growing 0.6 of a share point over the first quarter. USSTC estimates that the recall had about a half of a share point impact on its total retail share in the second quarter. And Copenhagen continued to gain ground in the second quarter growing 0.7 of a retail share point to a record share of 34.1%. That was a particularly strong performance as it lapped the Copenhagen Mint national expansion in 2016. Through the first half, Copenhagen remains both the largest and the fastest-growing smokeless tobacco product in the U.S. On a combined basis, Copenhagen and Skoal retail share declined 0.7 of a share point in the second quarter, driven by Skoal's 1.4 share point decline. For the first half, combined Copenhagen and Skoal retail share declined 0.6 of a share point. The smokeless products segment delivered 1.6% adjusted operating companies income growth for the first half of 2017, as higher pricing was partially offset by the first quarter recall. Now that the product recall is complete and trade inventories are substantially replenished, USSTC is well-positioned moving into the second half of the year. Finally an update on our innovative tobacco products efforts. In e-vapor, Nu Mark's MarkTen brand continues to grow volume and retail share. It is currently the number two e-vapor brand nationally with a second quarter national retail market share of approximately 13% in mainstream channels. MarkTen is now present in stores representing nearly 65% of e-vapor volume in those channels. And among stores, with MarkTen distribution through the full second quarter, MarkTen's retail share was approximately 24%. We're pleased with MarkTen's progress and Nu Mark plans to continue growing the brand in the back half. In heated tobacco, the FDA began its substantive review of Philip Morris International's modified risk tobacco product application for IQOS in late May. The FDA published PMI's Executive Summary and research summaries to its website for public review and comment, and the agency plans to publish additional sections of the application on a rolling basis. We continue to work closely with PMI throughout the review process. As a reminder, PMI submitted its pre-market tobacco product application for IQOS to the FDA on March 31. Our team at PM USA continues to build its U.S. commercialization plans which we look forward to sharing with you in the future. I'll wrap up with guidance. Obviously, our business fundamentals remain strong. We continue to expect higher adjusted diluted EPS growth in the second half of the year as some first half headwinds moderate and because the fourth quarter will include equity earnings from our beer investment whereas the fourth quarter of 2016 did not. As a result, we are reaffirming our full year guidance of 7.5% to 9.5% adjusted diluted EPS growth. Here's Billy for more details on our performance.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks Marty and good morning everyone. I'll start with the smokeable products segment. As Marty discussed, cigarette industry volumes declined approximately 4.5% in the second quarter, impacted by the significant cigarette excise tax increase in California. The smokeable products segment's reported cigarette shipment volume declined 2.9%, moderated by trade inventory movements. When adjusted for these inventory movements, PM USA's cigarette shipment volume was down an estimated 5%. For the first half, cigarette industry volumes declined by an estimated 3.5%. The smokeable products segment's cigarette shipment volume decreased 2.8% on a reported basis. When adjusted for trade inventory movements, PM USA's cigarette shipment volume declined an estimated 4%. The cigar business continues to perform well, delivering volume growth of 13.1% for the second quarter and 12.7% for the first half of 2017. Smokeable products segment adjusted OCI margins expanded by 1.6 percentage points to 51.7% in the second quarter, driven by higher pricing. For the first half, adjusted OCI margins expanded 2.2 percentage points to 51.4%. In the smokeless products segment, industry volume grew an estimated 1% in the past six months. USSTC's reported shipment volume grew 1.4% in the second quarter, but declined 1.7% in the first half due to the recall. Smokeless products segment's adjusted OCI margins increased by 0.7 of a percentage point in the quarter to 70%, driven principally by higher pricing, partially offset by higher SG&A spending and unfavorable mix. For the first half, smokeless products segment adjusted OCI margins decreased by 1.1 percentage points primarily due to the recall, partially offset by higher pricing. Looking ahead, we expect to see some impact on the smokeless category from California's excise tax increase on smokeless tobacco products, which went into effect on July 4th. California accounts for roughly 4% of U.S. smokeless industry volume and we expect the average price per can in California to increase by over $1 or approximately 25% in the third quarter. Turning to our alcohol assets, Ste. Michelle faced headwinds in the first half, largely due to trade inventory reductions and increased competitive activity. In recent quarters, we have observed a slowdown in premium wine category growth in measured channels, and the trade ended 2016 with excess inventory of Ste. Michelle products. As the trade reduced their inventories, Ste. Michelle's shipment volume was negatively impacted, down 12.4% for the first half. Ste. Michelle is working closely with its major distributors to manage through this, and believes that volume trends will improve in the second half versus the first half. In beer, adjusted equity earnings from our investment in Anheuser-Busch InBev were $142 million in the second quarter, reflecting AB InBev's first quarter results, which it reported in May. This excludes a $408 million gain related to AB InBev divestitures in the quarter, which were planned as a closing condition of the SABMiller business combination. I'll wrap up by underscoring our ongoing commitment to return cash to shareholders. First, through the first half of 2017, we paid shareholders nearly $2.4 billion in dividends. Second, we repurchased $1.6 billion in shares, leaving approximately $335 million in the program as of June 30th. This week, our board authorized a $1 billion expansion to the share repurchase program. We expect to complete the $4 billion program by the end of the second quarter of 2018. That concludes our prepared remarks, and Marty and I are now happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. You will see that we've included a few additional data points on the discount cigarette category. This is in response to a few recent questions we received on the topic. With that, operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Investors, analysts, and media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question comes from Vivien Azer with Cowen and Company.
Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company, LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Vivien.
Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company, LLC:
So thank you so much for the additional disclosure. Maybe I can start there. While we don't have a time series, I suspect part of the 40 basis point gain that we saw for deep discount is, of course, coming from some of the disruption that we're seeing in California and Pennsylvania. But if Nielsen is any guide, and some of the other public company competitor disclosures is a guide as well that deep discount has been gaining share already prior to what's happening in California and Pennsylvania. And if that's the case then Marty, I was just hoping to get your thoughts on why you think we're seeing that dynamic. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes, we can – I'll get Billy maybe to talk about the geography in a minute. But, when we look at it, it looks like churn in the discount category to us. The gain in deep discount, so for reference for people who – we're referring to the quarterly metrics report where we put these data in that Billy referenced. And we show there that the discount category has not grown year-over-year. In fact, it's essentially flat down a tenth. But there is some difference between the branded discount which is down five tenths and deep discount which is up 4. So it looks to us like it's basically churn there. I mean importantly for us, there does not appear to have any significant effect on Marlboro or in L&M. Indeed, if you look at the share chart in the earnings release, you can see that the discount category for us was actually up a tenth over the half. Billy can talk about the geographies, but there's no question that when you have a major excise tax increase in a state, some people do trade down. I don't know, Billy, you want to talk about discount?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. Vivien, basically with discount, and as Marty mentioned, it's a discount phenomena, tends to be consolidated through the middle of the country and down into the Southeast, and it really is trading within that discount category. I would say L&M, our discount brand, is well represented in that category and is doing exactly what we want, which is grow share while not growing the overall discount category.
Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company, LLC:
That's helpful. Thank you. Just as a follow up to that then, seemingly then we're talking about a distinct segment of the total smoker population. So Marty, can you offer any comments on kind of the health of the smoking population broadly from an economic standpoint? And then specifically perhaps that lower-end smoker? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes, sure. Overall, Vivien, I would say that we continue to have a largely constructed view of the economic situation of our consumer. Unemployment's down, housing is up, wage gains are starting to come through. All the stuff that we talk about all the time, so I won't repeat that. That looks to us to be pretty stable. Gas prices are up a little bit, but not remarkably so in a way that affects our business. I think what you may be getting at though that there is a segment of consumers in our category who will go into the store and ask the clerk for the lowest-priced brand, and they may be picking up some share there but again, it appears to be coming out of perhaps the branded discount segment without certainly no effect on our brands, so we don't see it in premium, generally. I hope that's helpful.
Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company, LLC:
Very helpful. Thank you so much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman with Citi.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Thank you very much. Just to follow Vivien's question, I guess, you're talking about within discount, you're seeing this churn, and I was just wondering whether you've seen deep discounts as innovation in any way, or whether your sort of major competitors have somehow deemphasized their discount brands. So that would be my first question. I do have a complete separate question on buy backs, but if you could answer that first.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. Yes, thanks for calling. We do not see that. I think it's basically a function of price, Adam.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Fine. And then on buy backs, I at least was surprised by the quantum of buy backs in this quarter. I know you've increased your guidance, but is this quarter the guidance – what you did in 2Q, does that tell me anything about the run rate we should expect for Q3 and Q4?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. Thanks for that question, Adam. I wouldn't read anything into any particular action. We really monitor the marketplace. We have a disciplined approach to share repurchases, and it really is dependent on market conditions that we see in the marketplace on the rate that we're going to buy shares back. I think you – if you put it in context as a whole and you go back to when we began share repurchases in 2011, you can see it's been a great investment of our excess cash.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Fine. And then my final question. You've obviously left your guidance for EPS unchanged for the full year and the question is have you altered in any way your assumptions about beer and the contribution from beer? And maybe as you have perhaps increased your buy back assumptions that's been offset by slightly different assumptions for beer.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I guess the honest answer is...
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
... Baked into that EPS guidance.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes, I think I understand the question, thank you. That's why we do a range. And I think the range is sufficiently broad that, look, if you could predict your EPS with perfect prescience, you would put out a number, but you can't of course because of dynamics, again, you see it again this year as well. So we try to have the range to be broad enough to cover all that. We put our best thinking into what we can do within the range and that does include what we expect out of our beer investment. So the answer is yes, it's all in the guidance and we think the range is sufficiently broad to cover it.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
And it hasn't changed basically enough to – the assumptions for beer within the...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
No. No, I don't think so. I think we were thoughtful about putting the guidance together at the first of the year and I think that we are comfortable with the guidance range we have at this point in time.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Jaffray.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Michael.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
You have the share in Marlboro falling more than your discount piece of your portfolio like you pointed out, and so there's some unfavorable mix there. You also mentioned in your prepared remarks some higher promotional investments, but your smokeable price mix in total is still a strong number.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Can you just give us a sense of how you think about the promotional lever? And related to that, obviously too, there was a good margin lift in that segment. Was pricing the only or primary driver? Is there some other pieces there? How should we think about kind of the run rate and outlook there?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Let me try to tackle those. I think that you know what the strategy is. We're trying to maximize income in the segment, and that's a balance between that and making sure we have momentum on the key brands including Marlboro. So the share on Marlboro is down primarily because of the California effect. But other metrics on Marlboro continue to be strong. Its equity is great. As you can see, we've got very good pricing through the first half, Michael. The demographics have stabilized since Marlboro architecture. We just have a massive increase in California. We over-index in California, and so I think that explains that. The competitive environment I think we would describe as, it's always competitive. It may be useful for a couple of comments on that. One is if you think of competitive activity as occurring within say a band, it looks to us like the competitive activity remains within the band although perhaps a bit on the high side of the band. We have some promotional launches and some promotional activity from other competitors but we monitor that carefully, as you know. And what we basically do is we adjust as we need to adjust. So I think it's pretty steady as she goes and we're very happy. When you look at the income performance in the smokeable segment at more than 7% for the first half, despite the California increase, I think that they're doing a great job over there in line with their strategy.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
That's great. That's helpful. And then just one on IQOS. Can you give a sense of how you think about some of the contingency planning? Obviously, the FDA comment period alone runs through mid-December, so even early 2018 for a decision might be a little optimistic, but perhaps as soon as that or realistically, it could be two or even three or something years before you hear just knowing it's – how that can go. How do you think about resource allocation given some of that uncertainty? And if it is sooner than later, how quickly could you be able to activate some of your commercialization plans?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. Well, look, we're preparing to be ready on the nominal timelines that the FDA has said with respect to approving those applications. Your question correctly implies of course that's not completely within our control and it could take longer than that. That's why we're investing in with discipline. We're trying not to over-spend on the front end but we will certainly make the appropriate investments once we know we're go. So the way we look at it is we're going to be ready at the earliest moment to proceed expeditiously. If it turns out to be longer, we have contingency plans in place to do that. It's just not within our control, so we try not to fret too much about that, we just try to be ready when we can go.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Thank you. That's helpful.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Michael. Nice to hear your voice.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hey, Chris.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. I want just a bit of a follow on to an earlier question. And forgive me if you said this, but I just was trying to understand if you could frame the elasticity in California. And related to that, a couple other companies have talked recently about less c-store trips. I was just curious if you're seeing that as well, if that's been a factor at all in your business.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I'll take the second one first, and then I'll ask Billy to comment on the elasticity question, Chris. We have not observed that in our category at c-store. We've been reading carefully the reports. We've seen others comment on that, but at least with respect to our category, we have not seen that yet.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes, Chris, and in regards to elasticity, what we see in the marketplace, looking at other states that have had large increases, as you see it dip down, there is consumer reaction just following a CT increase. There's a bit of trade-down that takes place as they digest that price increase in the marketplace, and then we see it return to normal elasticity through time once they've digested it and feel comfortable with where cigarettes are priced. So through time it is the negative 0.3 elasticity that we see through time.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
So your expectations for the California plus say, Pennsylvania drag, the 1 percentage point drag on volume would likely include some improvement as we go ahead in future quarters? Still obviously a negative, but some improvement in the way the consumer reacts.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. Chris, when we look at other states, we see that improvement take place. It's just it's hard to predict exactly how long it's going to take based on the level of the increase for the consumer to get comfortable with cigarette prices again.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. I had just one follow-up, if I could, on Copenhagen. Just to understand, I think you had said there was still a bit of a market share drag of like 50 basis points on that brand. Is that just trade inventories were building back to normal levels? Are you kind of at a point here where you don't see that residual effect continuing in the second half of the year on the share?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, you see that on almost all the metrics the business bounced back terrifically in the second quarter, it's just that when you're out of the market and you lose your share, it just takes longer to gain the share back. And so I think we said at the first quarter call that we expected to gain that back over the course of the year and we were trying to point out the gain that we made in the second quarter of I think 0.6 sequentially. So I think we'll get it back over the course of the year, but it doesn't bounce back immediately.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for your time.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Judy.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So first just a quick follow-up on Marlboro. Just kind of thinking about the third quarter volume because clearly in the second quarter you had the benefit of the favorable inventory movement. If I kind of extrapolate the inventory sort of getting back to normalized level and then you have a bit of unfavorable comp in terms of the third quarter, could we see volume down something like a 10% on Marlboro? I'm just kind of thinking about the magnitude of some of these inventory movements.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, I'll speak to the inventory movements. I won't speak to guidance on volume, particularly around numbers because you know we don't do that, but you're right to point out the factors. We do have some trade inventory as we point out in the metrics report that built in the second quarter. And as you know, Judy, it all kind of normalizes over the course of the year, and so in the back half, that'll pay itself back, I'm sure. I know you remember we have one fewer shipping day in the third quarter and then we have to work our way through this effect that Billy was just discussing with Chris about the volume declines that are resulting from the cigarette excise tax increase. So those are all the dynamics, but we have not put out a number about third-quarter volume.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then, Marty, just kind of looking at some of the recent trends for e-vapor category, it looks like growth has reaccelerated, at least in the measured channel data. And clearly some of that is being driven by MarkTen XL. So just wanted to get a sense of kind of the broader industry momentum that you're seeing how sustainable do you think, just from a category perspective? And then to some extent, if you go back two or three years ago, there was a little bit of a shift of combustible volume into e-vapor, so is that something that you're starting to see or just kind of get a sense of the broader e-vapor category trend.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. Let me share with you some of the macro data that we have, just to get everybody oriented. In 2016 we estimated that the spend in the category was about $2.5 billion; that was flat to 2015. But we have seen a pick-up both in volume and in dollar sales in 2017. So I don't know, maybe 8% on volume year-over-year. And then there's been some price mix as you know. A lot of that is driven by MarkTen, which has really gotten traction with the consumer and we put out some share numbers on that today. The other phenomenon that's happening in the category as I know you know, is there's poly use. So adult tobacco consumers do shift between segments of the tobacco category, and I think that what you're seeing as vapor moves up and down, and maybe even MST, is you see people moving among and between those categories. I think those are all factors that go into the growth rate for vapor and then of course, when there's new technologies that are put in the market, we find high trial and that drives some of the growth.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. That's helpful. And my last question just on IQOS. Can you give us some update on how much you've discussed with various jurisdictions on sort of the tax structure or any kind of regulatory structures around IQOS and what kind of feedback you've gotten so far?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. We have an engagement plan that we're talking to public policy officials, to state tax officials and others, and I am encouraged that there is, I think a more broad acknowledgement among public policy people these days that harm reduction is the way forward and that tax policy will be an important component of that. It makes good sense to try to encourage people to migrate to products that may hold out less harm. We are particularly pitching that in the states, but as you know, state excise tax structures are highly complex and idiosyncratic by state, so the reception varies from state to state. But we are out there sharing our views about that and trying as best we can to persuade people to be thoughtful about that.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.
Patty Kanada - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi, good morning. This is Patty Kanada on for Bonnie.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Patty. Welcome.
Patty Kanada - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. Thank you. Just a question on smokeless. Could you give us a little bit more color on where you are in terms of replenishing trade inventory? It seems that there may be some residual supply constraints. And then in terms of the consumer, has there been any pantry loading going on or trade-down or brand switching? And does your guidance assume consumers entirely come back once this issue is fully resolved?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. We have noticed that some people have commented on that, so I'm glad to have a chance to talk about the replenishment. Actually, I think it's going pretty well. If we look at – I don't know, we went back and looked at some data through June and with a small exception of maybe, I don't know, call it two, three or four SKUs, all of the orders were being completely fulfilled. So that's a pretty quick snap back from a recall and a transition from a two-factory environment to a one-factory environment. I'd like to take the occasion to congratulate the UST team on such a good job. There was a brief hiatus during the July 4 holiday. Our people have been working very hard in the factory and we gave them an appropriate July 4 holiday. And there was a short period there where a few more SKUs were not available and we had to limit some orders. But on the whole, the vast majority of the SKUs are at full fulfillment, and as you can see from the numbers in the second quarter by the smokeless team, I think they've done a very good job. So our view is that we're pretty much back in business in the smokeless business. We have not seen any pantry loading that I'm aware of.
Patty Kanada - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. And just one other question on menthol.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure.
Patty Kanada - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
We have San Francisco's ban possibly going into effect next year and a few other cities looking to similar legislation. What are you seeing on the ground in those places, and where do you think this all goes?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, there's a group of people that are trying to take decisions away from other adults and we oppose that. And we thought that was very bad public policy. You know our position on menthol because we've articulated it extremely thoroughly at the FDA, and as a matter of first instance, if there's going to be anything done on menthol, it ought to be done by the agency that has the expertise to assess whether the science and the evidence supports it. In our view, and the view of many others who weighed in on the FDA, is that there is not. For San Francisco to try to create its own set of rules out there doesn't seem to be good public policy to us, but this happens. Local jurisdictions have views about tobacco issues and while we fight them, they go ahead and reimplement them. Obviously it's a tiny fraction of the volume.
Patty Kanada - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi, Marty. Hi, Billy. Thanks. First question, I guess as we think about some of the comparability headwinds for the third quarter that you mentioned and how to model the back half generally, I wanted to also ask about the pricing outlook because in 2Q you had strong price mix in combustibles, but there was the benefit of earlier timing of the price increase. And you did incur some inventory buildup, which we talked about earlier, that I'm assuming will probably unwind in the second half and result in some higher promotional expense flowing through. So is it fair to directionally expect price mix to moderate a fair amount in the next quarter or in the back half relative to what we saw here in Q2?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, I don't want to talk about forward pricing as you can appreciate, and I think that the dynamics are well understood, Matt, about what we have out there. I tried to articulate them in terms of the inventory, but I'm not going to talk about forward pricing of course.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Understood. And just to follow up on Patty's question on the San Francisco menthol ban.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I know you've sort of been down this road from a legal perspective before with the flavored smokeless...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
In New York. I mean, given how the bill is written and your experience trying to litigate these types of bans in the past, how optimistic are you that this could potentially be reversed? Or is it kind of a done deal once it's implemented at this point?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, there are other jurisdictions that have implemented it. And my guess, what I would say is that while we continue to think we have strong arguments, it's fair to observe that we have not been able to block them in other jurisdictions. It always depends a bit on state law and other factors, but we'd like to have public policy defer to the experts but they often don't and sometimes the courts are reluctant to interfere with that. So it can be uphill.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks. And just one last one. Can you give us an update just from a legislative perspective on some of the agricultural bill amendments related to deeming regulations and where those stand at the moment? Just your level of optimism that that could move forward.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I hope so. It's in the ag bill as you know and I thought that the – we were happy to get it past the committee and that predicate date really needs to be changed. I think there is widespread understanding that the predicate date issue should be changed. It's a very, very complex environment in Washington, to state the obvious, and so we'll have to see where it goes in the budget. But I think that there is a lot of support for that amendment and we continue to work that very, very hard.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. Thank you, Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Matt, thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jenny Kaplan with Bloomberg.
Jennifer Kaplan - Bloomberg LP:
Hi. Thank you so much for taking the question.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Jennifer Kaplan - Bloomberg LP:
Good morning. I'm interested in just hearing – I know this morning that BAT CEO was talking about how they're planning to apply to the FDA for their glo product. And so I'm wondering how that impacts your plan and how you think about the competitive environment as you work with Philip Morris to introduce IQOS. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Right. Well, thanks for your question. I appreciate you calling in. As you might expect, I've been spending my time this morning thinking about this call, so I didn't have a lot of time to review the BAT material. I did see the headline statement apparently that they're going to pursue an FDA application for glo. Our plans assume the following which is, because the application is in by PMI in the United States and we're working that we expect to have first mover advantage. But our plans also assume in our category that we will have competition, so I think both scenarios are covered.
Jennifer Kaplan - Bloomberg LP:
Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for your question.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer with Cowen and Company.
Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company, LLC:
Hi. Thanks for the follow ups.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Welcome back.
Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company, LLC:
Thanks. On IQOS and the dialog that you're engaging with at the state level, if my understanding is correct, the consumables will be subject to the MSA, subject to the FET and selectively subject to state excise taxes. Can you give us a sense of what proportion of states or U.S. volumes would, in theory, tax IQOS as a cigarette absent any change in the statute? Thanks.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Most of them.
Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company, LLC:
Got it. Thanks. And then my other question is on minimum age increases. I know California is probably a little bit hard to read because of the overlap with the state excise tax. And while Hawaii is small, it's really our only kind of clear example. And given that there looks to be some movement in New Jersey and possibly Oregon on that front, is there anything that you can offer in terms of your insights around how raising the minimum purchase age in Hawaii impacted the market? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
It's too small, and it's so idiosyncratic because it's an island that it's just hard to extrapolate from it. I think we had said previously when we studied California that we had not seen any significant effects there and obviously we'll be monitoring New Jersey very carefully.
Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company, LLC:
Terrific. Thanks again.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Jaffray.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Thanks for the follow up, too.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Welcome back.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Just wanted to revisit Nat Sherman. It's, I think, a couple quarters now that you've owned it and curious some of the status there. Are you still developing some plans for what to do with that? Have you begun doing any expansion of distribution? What's sort of the status on how you think about that brand?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes, the integration is well underway. I think that we're doing very well against the plan we have. We're working on the branding strategies now. Obviously getting our arms around the factory and we'll have more news on Nat Sherman in the back half of the year, but we're very pleased with how it's gone so far, Michael.
Michael S. Lavery - Piper Jaffray & Co.:
Okay. Great. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Bill Marshall (40:21) for closing remarks.
Unverified Participant:
Thank you all for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Unverified Participant Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc. William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd. Michael Lavery - Piper Jaffray Glen Richard Anderson - Nuveen Asset Management LLC
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2017 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall (00:49), Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead.
Unverified Participant:
Thank you, Crystal. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO, and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO, to discuss Altria's 2017 first quarter business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results, which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2016. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release. Now, I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Bill (02:12). Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Altria is off to a solid start in 2017 despite some short-term headwinds. We grew first quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share by 1.4% against a difficult comparison in the year-ago quarter when we grew adjusted diluted EPS more than 14%. The smokeable product segment continued to generate strong results, which offset lower equity earnings from our beer investment and the effect of the voluntary product recall in the smokeless product segment. Our business fundamentals remain strong and we believe we're well-positioned for the rest of the year. Earlier this morning, we reaffirmed our 2017 full year adjusted diluted EPS growth guidance of 7.5% to 9.5%, and we continue to expect adjusted diluted EPS growth to be weighted to the second half. Here is some color on the businesses. The smokeable product segment grew its adjusted operating companies income by more than 8%. PM USA estimates that cigarette industry volume declines were in line with the historical rate as the industry lapped the improving consumer conditions and benefits from lower gasoline prices. Against this backdrop, the industry remains competitive and PM USA saw several competitive product expansions and promotional changes. In this environment, PM USA remained focused on maximizing income while maintaining momentum on Marlboro across its measures of brand strength, which include equity, demographics, retail share, and profitability. PM USA implemented list price increases in March and continued to compete effectively at retail. PM USA was steady in its strategy and execution, resulting in strong smokeable segment price realization. In the machine-made large cigar category, Middleton's focus on the more profitable tipped cigar segment continued to generate good results and the business is performing very well. The cigar category strength and trade inventory movements drove Middleton's reported shipment volume up over 12% in the quarter. Turning to the smokeless product segment, it was a disappointing quarter resulting from the product recall caused by a product tampering incident. USSTC did the right thing by moving quickly to address the issue with consumers, the trade and other stakeholders, but the recall's effect shows in the numbers. Smokeless segment adjusted OCI declined 7.8% and USSTC estimates that the recall had an approximately 1-retail share point impact. The recall is concluded and USSTC has now largely completed replenishing wholesale and retail inventories. We expect that USSTC will recover the share loss over time. Turning to innovative tobacco products, Altria continues to develop a portfolio of products to meet evolving adult tobacco consumer preferences. In April, Nu Mark announced the expansion of MarkTen to approximately 10,000 more stores and the availability of three more flavors for its adult vapors
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the smokeable products segment. Adjusted OCI margins expanded by 2.9 percentage points in the first quarter to 51%, due primarily to higher net pricing and lower resolution expenses. Smokeable reported cigarette shipment volume declined 2.7% in the quarter. After adjusting for trade inventory movements and other factors, PM USA estimates that its cigarette volume declined approximately 3%, in line with PM USA's estimate for the industry decline rate. In addition, California's cigarette SET, which went into effect on April 1, will also affect shipment volumes in the short term. PM USA's first quarter retail share was 51%, down 0.1 share point; Marlboro's retail share declined by 0.2 share point to 43.6%. In smokeless, adjusted OCI margins decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 61.9%, driven principally by the Recall impact, partially offset by higher pricing. The Recall drove USSTC's shipment volume down 5% in the quarter. USSTC estimates that smokeless industry volume grew at approximately 2% over the past six months. It was a tough quarter for wine. Ste. Michelle's adjusted OCI of $21 million was 25% lower than last year and its margins contracted 4.6 percentage points to 15.4% due to lower volume and higher cost. Ste. Michelle's lower volume was driven by wholesalers reducing year-end inventory and the timing of the Easter holiday, which occurred in the first quarter of last year. Let's now turn to our beer investment. As a reminder, ABI's fourth quarter 2016 results are included in our first quarter results due to the reporting lag. In the quarter, Altria's reported equity earnings from our investment in ABI were $23 million. These results included net pre-tax charges of $73 million for ABI special items. As ABI noted in its fourth quarter earnings release, its underlying results were negatively impacted by a challenging environment in Brazil and mark-to-market losses related to ABI's hedging of its share-based compensation payment programs. We, of course, continue to focus on our shareholders. In the quarter, we returned a large amount of cash to them, paying nearly $1.2 billion in dividends and repurchasing over $550 million in shares. As of March 31, Altria had approximately $1.4 billion remaining in the current $3 billion share repurchase program. We continue to expect completing this program by the end of the second quarter of 2018. As Marty mentioned, we continue to expect that our 2017 adjusted diluted earnings growth will be higher in the second half. This is due primarily to the financial effect of USSTC's Recall this quarter and the benefit of reporting four full quarters of equity income from our ABI investment. Lastly, a quick word on IRI's retail market share reporting. As a result of IRI's most recent database restatement, cigarette and smokeless retail market shares had been restated. Share information for each quarter of 2016 is available in our press release. You remember that IRI uses a sample of retail stores and certain wholesale shipments to project market share and depict share trends. Historical trends of restated numbers are generally consistent with those under IRI's previously reported numbers. That wraps up our results. Marty and I are now happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll direct your attention to altria.com. Along with today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations, we've posted for your reference a usual list of quarterly metrics, including pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. Operator, we're ready for the questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I actually have a question on Marlboro, and it looks like you've been losing slight share behind Marlboro over the past several quarters based on the adjusted data. So, I guess I'd like to better understand your current strategy with the brand and if some of the new SKUs haven't been as effective as you had hoped and what your innovation pipeline looks like for the remainder of the year behind the brand?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, Bonnie. Thanks for the question. Listen, I think the best explanation of Marlboro was the one we gave at CAGNY just a little while ago. As you know, Marlboro remains the strongest brand by far in the cigarette category; it's the iconic brand in the category. I think it's also useful to remember what our strategy is. Our strategy in smokeable is to maximize income while maintaining momentum on Marlboro over time. And so, as we've explained, momentum is viewed by us across various metrics. Let me just mention a few of them. One is brand equity, and brand equity for Marlboro has never been higher. Indeed, I think the number we gave was 14 points higher than the next nearest competitor. Demographics are good. As you know, we've stabilized its share among the important 21 to 29 cohort. And actually, Marlboro share is very good across all the rest of the cohorts as well. Its profitability is undeniable. I think the number we put up at CAGNY was $34 billion in retail sales in 2016. And then we come to share, and so with share, we look at it over time. It's down two-tenths in the quarter to be sure, but that's why we look at it over time because promotions and the like come in and out of the quarter. If you look at it over a longer period, I don't know, say 2011, we've gained – I don't – call it, 1.5 share points to 2 share points. So the strategy hasn't changed at all. It's to be the leading brand in the category and to maximize its profitability.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. And then, I wanted to ask a question on your wine business. You mentioned it was certainly a tough quarter. Your margins were very low, probably the lowest they've actually been for a number of years. So guess I was hoping you guys could drill down a little further in some of the things that hurt your business during the quarter. You mentioned your volume was very weak due to the wholesalers reducing year-end inventory, so more color on this and then any sense what your volume was excluding this inventory fluctuation. And then, finally, this begs a question, which I've asked you guys about before, but would love to hear any updated thoughts or plans that you might have for this business over the next several years in terms of further investments and if you need to actually increase your investments possibly to turn the business around? Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for the question. Listen, I think you have to put the wine quarter in context. If you look at its income growth over the last five years, its grown double-digit, call it, I don't know, 12% give or take. And so you have to place the quarter in context. They had a tough quarter; there's no denying it. There was inventory that got burned off from the end of the year and the Easter holiday was pushed back into the second quarter this year. So that has the effect on all the numbers if you called out in terms of the volume and obviously in terms of the margin. The wine company does a terrific job out there. No quarter is perfect and this is ours, I guess, for the wine business. But they do a great job. I don't see the need for anyone to think that we have to step up, in any material way, the investment in the wine company. It was just a tough quarter.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. Then just maybe one final quick question for me.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
On your EPS guidance this year, I just wanted to confirm that it does include any potential expense associated with the commercialization of IQOS this year in terms of any hiring you might need to do, marketing, store openings, et cetera. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes, it's all in.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Perfect. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers with UBS.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, good morning. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Steve.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. So I wanted to pick up first, just to round out the Marlboro discussion...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Marty, you talked about, I think, in the response to Bonnie that share trends amongst that important younger adult smoker segment had stabilized.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Just a little bit more color on – to the extent you have the granularity – what the sequential movement in that cohort looks like over the last year plus, is it similar to the overall where stable means down slightly or is actually truly stable?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think the last time we looked at it, it was equal to or slightly greater than. And actually, if you look at it, Steve, from when we implemented the architecture in 2012, that's when it really began to stabilize and, obviously, with the implementation of the architecture, Marlboro Green and Marlboro Black, in particular, are helping in that cohort.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. That's great. That's great. And then a question on IQOS and, really, it's a clarification for my benefit. As I understand it, your joint efforts with PMI right now are based on a relationship whereby you'd effectively be licensing IQOS IP owned by PMI for commercialization in the U.S. Is that the correct understanding?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I might be a tad more precise on that if you let me. They're sourcing the product to us, as you know, they're licensing it into us for commercialization, which is essentially the inverse of the relationship we have on e-vapor, which is we source the product for them for e-vapor outside the United States and we license the trademark and the IP to them. The only distinction of course is that, before the spinoff, there was IP under the Altria tent which we retained at the spinoff.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Right. Okay. That's clarifying. And I guess the question I'm thinking about, is there any reason – I know this is hypothetical, but just any reason why we couldn't evolve to a structure in the future where you would end up taking outright ownership of IQOS IP, at least as related to the U.S. market? Is there anything that would prevent that kind of outcome?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
No, I would agree with you that's it hypothetical, though. And there's nothing, I guess, that could foreclose a different arrangement being struck than the one that we have today, but what I've described is the arrangement we have today with PMI.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right, Steve. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Chris.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. I just wanted to ask a question about the smokeless division, and just to make sure I'm looking at it properly, if you kind of quantify the market share loss around 100 basis points of market share, your numbers you gave in the press release show you lost 70 basis points. Am I getting to like an underlying performance kind of ex the recall of how you performed at retail?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, Chris. Good morning. This is Billy. I think that's the proper way to look at it, Chris. What we quantified was about 100 basis points, the impact of the recall and you're right, in the actuals, we were down 70 basis points.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
And have you had any of the SKUs back on the shelf long enough to see how that rebuild is going, of market share?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, as Marty mentioned, we are pretty much done replenishing the out-of-stocks that occurred because of the recall at retail, and we are seeing share recover. Now, remember, whenever you have that consumer purchasing other products in the marketplace, it takes a bit of time for us to recover the share, but we're seeing promising signs.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And just a quick question, if I could, a bit of a follow-up on the e-vapor business. PMI has launched a new form of their platform for their e-vapor product in the U.K. Is that technology that Altria has access to or has helped develop? Could you have access to that product for the U.S. market?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I can describe generally to you the way that we're handling it at vapor, which is in addition to the two agreements that I described with Steve, I think you know, Chris, that we also have a technology sharing agreement with PMI to work on vapor products. And the way that basically works, at the risk of an over-summary is, technology that's developed under that agreement can be deployed by each of us in our respective geographies.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. That's very helpful. Thanks for your time this morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Matt.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Just a quick follow-up on cigarette industry volumes, which improved a bit sequentially versus what we saw in the fourth quarter despite the fact that retail consumption in measured channels appeared to slow. We had some headwinds from slower c-store trends, difficult comp. So, how did that 3% compare to your expectations? And are there any favorable dynamics at the consumer level, maybe consumer confidence that you'd point to as having help support volumes in the short term?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I guess our view is that it's going back to about where we expected, Matt, is the honest answer. If you look at long-term trends, call it, a five-year trend for the industry, it's about 3%. As you know, we were flatter there for the period that we've discussed previously. Last year was at 2.5% and now, for this quarter, we're back at about 3% as our estimate. So, our view is that the secular decline is what drives this. It has since the 1980s and it looks to us like it's going about that. In the quarter, there may be some movements in and out because we've got some excise tax activity, particularly in California, but I don't think its material over the course of the year.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Marty. And on IQOS, are there any updates you can provide on kind of the level of or pace of engagement at the state level as you're talking to legislators about tax treatment, any sense you can give on timeline and your level of confidence that you could potentially align those discussions with the outcome of the FDA's review of pre-market approval?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, that's an interesting question. We are talking to state legislators about the policy issue, of which IQOS is but a part, of having differential taxing, obviously, on lower risk products. That would make good sense. And tax policy gets changed over time, so we're working on that, but I don't have anything new to announce on that. But it is one of the elements of our work streams.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks. And if I could squeeze in one last one, sorry...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Just with the advent of deeming in the vapor space, just curious any observations on what the implications have been at retail since August. Have there been changes in retail or inventory levels in vapor? Have you seen better flexibility in being able to secure and manage shelf space as a result of those rules going into effect?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
No, I wouldn't say that. I'd distinguish probably how the dynamics with respect to our vapor business, which, as you know, is going quite well with MarkTen XL. You saw big boost in the number of stores that we're in. We see very good consumer response to the new product. I would say the thing to watch probably from an industry dynamic are the vape shops. So, I know you're familiar with that phenomenon, but they now have to deal with FDA regulation where they didn't have to deal with any before. So we have seen some evidence that there's been a reduction in the number of vape shops and that the volume is moving to more traditional channels, which would be a good development for our business of course.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Matt.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hi, everyone.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hey, Nik.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, a couple questions. Just – Marty, maybe you can just comment on Nat Sherman and how that integration is going and if you're seeing more space – more of your fair share of space in that higher-end of the back bar. And then the broader picture question is on IQOS and I guess, as you guys think about your plans to invest ahead of the approval process, what kind of consumer work have you been able to do? How do you know that the consumer is going to uptake on this product because, obviously, since you can't really launch it in the U.S. until you get that approval, I'm just curious on the science and the research that you're doing with the consumer to get a sense of what the uptake could be?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. So, first on Nat Sherman, we're working through our plans now. We closed in January, if memory serves, and we're getting that ready to roll. So I don't really have a lot to tell you about Nat Sherman yet because we're just getting started. On the IQOS consumer work, the situation of course, which is you're right, we don't have the product in market, so we can't do any in-market consumer work. But we certainly can do out-of-market work, which we are working on and, in particular, we are using the learnings from PMI, which I think we've discussed before. So many of us have been in the international markets and our teams are working quite closely. The idea basically is to try to extract trade and consumer insights and then try to apply them to what we know about our market here, and so we're working on all of that now. And then when we get in the lead market, that's when we're going to learn more, once we have that product available for consumers. So we're trying to do as much as we can to get a fast start, but you're right to point out and we've pointed out, until you get it in the consumers' hands, you have to be careful.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
And I guess, Marty, the follow-up to that is having been in the international business, are there any markets that you believe are analogous to the U.S. market just in terms of consumer behavior, tax structures, demographics?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think the better way to look at it, Nik, is that there's no perfect market, but that each of the markets, if you're asking the right question, can give you insights into the behavior. So, obviously, in terms of traditional cigarette markets, it's customary to compare the United States more to Western Europe. But, obviously, there are insights to be generated from seeing the uptick that's taken place in Japan, so rather than to get locked in on a geography, we're focused in on the insights.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Excellent. Thanks so much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay, Nik. Good to hear from you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Judy.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So I just had a few follow ups. One is just California and Pennsylvania, just kind of a color that – any color you could give us in terms of the impact from the excise tax increase in those markets?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Our estimate is that it will have about a 1% impact on volume this year.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
And that there's no changes based on what you've seen so far in those markets?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
No, not so far.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then just in terms of guidance, I know at CAGNY you talked about the potential Recall-related expenses in smokeless and I think, at that time, it wasn't clear whether it was going to be included in the adjusted earnings growth numbers. So, now, you're including it, but you didn't change the adjusted EPS numbers. So does that sort of imply that may be the underlying trends are actually slightly better than what you would've thought during CAGNY?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Judy. This is Billy. As we answered that question at CAGNY, you'll recall, when we provide guidance, we run a range of scenarios that are included in the guidance, and so that'll take into account these types of events, and so we feel the same that we felt at CAGNY. We feel good about guidance and that's why we were able to reaffirm today.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. And then just lastly, Marty, on MarkTen XL, just in terms of the conversion rate that you're seeing on that product versus the prior versions, is there anything you can share with us on that front?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yes. We've had much, much better return business on the new product than we did on the former product, and so we can measure that by the number of cartridges that are purchased versus the device, and they're much, much better.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Nice to speak with you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer with Cowen.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Vivien. You there?
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
I am. So, Marty, I just wanted to double-click on your comment around promotional activity from competitors in the quarter. Can you elaborate on that at all? And perhaps contextualize it in the broader context of the competitive landscape over time, because I know we see these episodes of competitive activity bubble up from time to time. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
That's probably the best way to describe it. Look, it's always competitive, and we're always monitoring and we're always adjusting. That's basically how it works. We were trying to provide some color in the quarter about seeing some competitive product expansions and some promotional changes, and PM USA has adjusted appropriately, as it always does. So this is the Sturm und Drang that goes on, I think, at retail and in competition, but we watch it carefully, of course. But, of course, if you look at net pricing for the quarter, you can see that PM USA's realization was still above 4.5%. So that's what we were trying to convey, Vivien, which was some color about that.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
That's helpful. Thank you. A bigger picture, theoretical question, if you will. Yesterday, President Trump noted that he would be open to a gas price increase and we haven't seen one since 1993. And I know there are a number of macro factors that you look at to determine kind of the health of the consumer and the potential impact on cigarette volumes, but can you just offer any commentary on how you guys would think about a gas tax increase impacting cigarette volumes? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, obviously, that announcement just came out yesterday, and so we're taking a look at what it might do to the c-store trade. Obviously, gas is a big deal at c-store and that's where most of our traffic runs through. So I guess we'd have to – we'll have to take a look and see what it is. I know that there are sort of entrenched interests on both sides of the question about whether the gas tax should be raised. So we'll have to wait and see, I guess.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
That's helpful. And then the last one for me, from the FDA from a menthol perspective, any updates there?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
None.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for calling, Vivien.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman with Citi.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Hi. Thank you for taking the question. So, as I look back, as I think about the quarter as a whole, you've had really strong growth in OCI in smokeable against a really tough comp. Smokeless segment, yes, you've had the recall, but excluding that, profit looks really strong as well. On the other hand, I guess market share in cigarettes has been a little bit disappointing. So the question is, as you look forward, is there any reason to suppose it won't return to a, let's say, a more normal pattern with perhaps less price realization, a little less OCI, but equally a better market share trend in cigarettes. That would be the first question.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Well, let me respond to that. It's always a balance, is the honest answer. The strategy on the smokeable business, as you know Adam, is to try to maximize our income and we try to do that and we have done that, I think as you point out, quite well over time. At the same time, we want to make sure we have momentum on the key brands and we're mindful of that. So, the honest answer is it's a balance.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Fine. Okay. And then just turning back to the FDA, can you – at CAGNY, you gave quite a lot of detail about the expense of putting in applications for authorization for your cigars and e-products of various sorts. Can you just give an update about how those applications are going? Whether you've had any response back from the FDA, and whether there has been any news there? What news is there?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I would say it continues to be as we described it at CAGNY, which is there's much more activity in terms of the interaction between the agency and our operating companies about their applications as they work through, and you're right, it's much more expensive than the FDA has estimated. And so, we're having to be mindful about which products we pick in order to put applications in because they come with an expense. Look, our strategy is to engage constructively with the agency and to try to encourage it to make good policy decisions, and that includes on approval of our submissions. We continue to believe that our submissions are well-founded and in good form, but it's a process and you have to go through that with FDA. So, I would say, it's been more of the same since we last discussed this at CAGNY.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Jaffray.
Michael Lavery - Piper Jaffray:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Michael, good morning and welcome.
Michael Lavery - Piper Jaffray:
Thank you. You mentioned in your release that your strategy on Middleton is maximizing income and, obviously, that didn't reference share momentum. I don't think that's new, but can you confirm that? And then, either way, can you just speak a little bit to your thinking there? Because, certainly, the volume momentum in cigars broadly typically is a bit better than cigarettes, but is it just that the economics aren't as attractive or can you just frame why share momentum there wouldn't be part of the strategy?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure, Michael. This is Billy. Thanks for the question. If you recall, when we look at the cigar category, you have it in basically three segments. You've got the tipped, where Black & Mild participates and has over about 90% of that segment. You have the un-tipped and then you have the non-cigarillo form. We participate in the tipped and we have basically a large market share there. And so that's why we're running for profitability. That's where most of the profitability is in the cigar category. In the un-tipped segment, there's basically a price we're going on where people are competing for volume, but at a very low profitability, and we're really not participating in that segment. So it hasn't been a change for us, but I think that describes the strategy and the approach we have in the cigar category.
Michael Lavery - Piper Jaffray:
Okay. That's good context. Thank you. And then just one last one; on Nat Sherman, I know you are still working on plans and working on the roll out and so it's still very small, but in terms of the volume in the quarter, would that have had any material – how much did that add? Is there any amount of the volume there?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
It's very small. As you know, that brand right now is pretty much a boutique brand and so, in this quarter, I wouldn't call anything out as material.
Michael Lavery - Piper Jaffray:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Nice to hear from you.
Operator:
And your next question comes to the line of Glen Anderson with Nuveen Asset Management.
Glen Richard Anderson - Nuveen Asset Management LLC:
Hey. Good morning. Thanks for the call.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Glen Richard Anderson - Nuveen Asset Management LLC:
I wanted to go back to IQOS and your conversations with the states. Have those conversations included how the IQOS would be measured as far as the MSA goes? Are the sticks going to be counted as a regular cigarette?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
No, but that's a good question as well. Our operating hypothesis is that the definition under the Master Settlement Agreement would cover the Heat Sticks because they're tobacco wrapped in paper. So it's a parallel definition. It's not the same as the states, but it's a parallel, you're right.
Glen Richard Anderson - Nuveen Asset Management LLC:
And they would count as a cigarette then?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
For those purposes, yes, sir.
Glen Richard Anderson - Nuveen Asset Management LLC:
Okay, very good. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you for asking.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks for the follow-up. Marty, I was just wondering – or Billy, if you can comment on just the general c-store environment because most companies are suggesting it's been pretty tough from a traffic standpoint, but it looks like cigarette industry volumes actually came in a bit better than I think most folks were looking at. So I was hoping to get your characterization on, kind of, how you see the environment right now.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, it's a good question. We continue to see, at least our consumer, who of course are moving to the c-stores, we think the environment continues to be largely constructive for them, Nik, when you look at the factors we've discussed whether it's unemployment rates or housing starts or consumer confidence. We have been following carefully the commentary by others in CPG about perhaps some softening for their consumer set, which obviously overlaps with ours in some respects. We just haven't seen it yet and we haven't seen that in the c-store trade for our category, not yet.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Perfect. Thanks so much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for following up.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Marshall (36:36) for closing remarks.
Unverified Participant:
Thank you, all, for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Unverified Participant Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc. William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd. Owen M. Bennett - Jefferies LLC Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC Jennifer Kaplan - Bloomberg LP
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2016 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall (00:58), Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Unverified Participant:
Thank you, Lori. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, our CFO, to discuss Altria's 2016 fourth quarter and full year business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results, which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same periods in 2015. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release. Now, I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Bill (2:25). Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. We're pleased to report that Altria had another outstanding year. In 2016, we grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 8.2%, in line with our long-term objectives, while returning a large amount of cash to shareholders, improving our balance sheet and strengthening our organizational capability, thus well positioning Altria to continue to deliver on our long-term goals. During 2016, we also rewarded our shareholders by paying out over $4.5 billion in dividends, raising our dividend by 8% and repurchasing over $1 billion of our shares under an expanded $3 billion share repurchase program. Since the beginning of 2011, we have returned over $28 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. And our dividend payout ratio of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS is among the highest in our peer group. In 2016, we strengthened our balance sheet by tendering for high coupon debt and refinancing it with lower coupon longer maturity debt. And in October with Altria's support of Anheuser-Busch InBev's landmark business combination with SABMiller, we enhanced the value of our beer investment and our position in the global brewing profit pool. We continue also to improve our operating efficiency, through a $300 million Productivity Initiative announced in January 2016, and a separate $50 million manufacturing consolidation plan announced in October. These efforts and others have strengthened our organization, streamlined our business processes, and provided greater autonomy to our business leaders in this dynamic environment. For 2016, Altria delivered a total shareholder return of 20.5%, marking the fourth consecutive year that total shareholder return has exceeded 20%. And over the last five years, Altria's total shareholder return was 187%, significantly outpacing both the S&P 500 and the S&P Food, Beverage and Tobacco Index. All these results are made possible by our dedicated and talented employees, so I want to thank them all. Here are some operating highlights. The smokeable products segment produced another year of strong results on the strength and consistency of its leading premium brands. Adjusted operating companies income grew by 5.3% for the year, primarily through higher pricing and effective cost management. The smokeable segment delivered this growth despite very difficult comparisons to last year when it grew adjusted OCI nearly 11%. For the year, PM USA gained one tenth of a retail share point to 51.4%, and Marlboro maintained retail share near record levels at 44%. PM USA continues to bring innovative products, packaging and adult consumer engagement activities to the market to reinforce Marlboro's vibrancy and relevance. For example, the national expansion of Marlboro Menthol Slate, a bold menthol product featuring PM USA's innovative soft touch ink packaging is receiving positive feedback from our trade partners. Last month, we further enhanced our smokeable products segment by acquiring Nat Sherman. Nat Sherman has an excellent and differentiated brand portfolio, which complements the brands in Altria's smokeable products segment. Nat Sherman brands will benefit from the retail distribution, brand management and adult tobacco consumer engagement expertise of Altria's companies. Integration and business plans are already well underway, and we welcome the Nat Sherman team of employees to the Altria family of companies. In cigars, Middleton maintained its leadership position in the profitable tipped segment, posting strong full year volume growth on the strength of the Black & Mild brand. Turning to the smokeless products segment. USSTC delivered a terrific year. The segment grew adjusted OCI 11% for the year, driven by higher pricing and volume, partially offset by higher cost and mix. Consistent with this strategy, USSTC grew retail share of Copenhagen and Skoal combined by 0.9 of a share point to 52.2%, the highest full year share since we acquired USSTC. Our portfolio strategy has enhanced Copenhagen and Skoal's competitive positioning and improved USSTC's efficiency and profitability. In 2016, Copenhagen continued to build on its position as the smokeless category's largest brand with the successful national expansion of Copenhagen Mint. Copenhagen is also the fastest growing smokeless tobacco brand posting a 2.2 retail share point gain for the year, more than offsetting Skoal's 1.3 share point decline. Product innovation was also a focus area in 2016. In e-vapor, Nu Mark made excellent progress this year toward achieving its long-term aspiration of becoming a leader in the e-vapor category. Nu Mark's disciplined test and learn approach to MarkTen's national expansion continues to gain traction. At year end, MarkTen was available in stores, representing about 55% of the e-vapor category volume in retail channels, including c-stores. In heated tobacco, Altria continues to partner with Philip Morris International on its FDA applications for IQOS. In December, PMI submitted a modified risk tobacco product application to the FDA for the heated tobacco product that PM USA will commercialize in the U.S. under our agreement with PMI. PMI plans to file the premarket tobacco product application during the first quarter of 2017 and concurrently, PM USA continues to develop its U.S. plans. For example, a commercialization team is now dedicated to preparing for the launch of IQOS in the U.S., including working closely with PMI, as it gains trade and consumer insights from other markets. In the wine segment, Ste. Michelle delivered another strong year on the performance of its premium brands with adjusted operating income growth of nearly 10%. For the second consecutive year, Ste. Michelle's premium wines received more than 260 ratings of 90 or better. In October, AB InBev completed its business combination with SABMiller, with Altria ultimately securing a 10.2% ownership in AB InBev. This transaction enhanced the value of Altria's beer investment and we expect it to deliver strong long-term financial returns to our shareholders. So to sum up, 2016 was another excellent year for our strong premium brands, our companies and our shareholders. We achieved significant milestones against an ambitious plan and we believe that we have positioned Altria well for continued future success. Let's turn for a moment to the regulatory environment. As you know, we continue to work closely with the FDA as it builds out its regulatory framework. One area is our company's substantial equivalence applications both for provisional and new products, so one of our priorities is to resolve those applications and the pace of work there has picked up. Second, for cigars in e-vapor, we're preparing the product applications now required by the deeming regulations and continuing to advocate for sensible interpretations consistent with the act. Third, our companies continue to develop new and innovative products to meet evolving adult tobacco consumer expectations, including products that advance tobacco harm reduction. This too requires advocating FDA and others to support and foster innovation that will benefit adult consumers. We expect to step-up in investments because of these activities. As you've seen from our press release, we expect to grow our full year adjusted EPS for 2017 to a range of $3.26 to $3.32, representing growth of 7.5% to 9.5% from our 2016 adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.03. So we expect another strong year for Altria. It may be helpful to share some further color on how we're thinking about that. So to begin, we're expecting continued strong performance from our operating companies and we believe that the macroeconomic environment remains largely constructive for adult tobacco consumers. We also will have the benefit of reporting four full quarters of equity earnings from AB InBev. On the other hand, we've seen some cigarette volume declines reverting back to more long-term norms. We also know that in April, California, a high volume state will implement significantly higher excise taxes and there are already proposals in several states to raise excise taxes further. And finally, we've taken into account an expected increase in our effective tax rate for 2017, which Billy will explain in a moment. The most important point is that we are entering 2017 with very good momentum from last year and are expecting another year of growth in line with our long-term financial goals. And so with that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Marty and, good morning, everyone. Our operating companies delivered solid results in the fourth quarter. In the smokeable products segment, fourth quarter adjusted OCI grew by 3.7%, and adjusted OCI margins increased by 2 percentage points, both driven by higher net pricing and lower benefits cost. For the year, adjusted OCI margins in the segment expanded 1.8 percentage points to 48.2%, driven by higher net pricing and lower benefits cost, partially offset by higher resolution expenses. PM USA maintained its leading retail position in the fourth quarter. PM USA's reported domestic cigarette shipment volume declined 4.8% in the quarter, primarily driven by the industry's rate of decline and one fewer shipping day. After adjusting for calendar differences, PM USA estimates that its cigarette volume declined approximately 3.5% in the quarter, and that total industry cigarette volumes also declined by approximately 3.5%. For the year, PM USA estimates that its adjusted cigarette volume declined approximately 2.5% and that total industry volume also declined by approximately 2.5%. Over the last three quarters, we are seeing the cigarette industry volume decline rate gradually revert to more long-term historical norms. In the machine-made large cigar category, Middleton's focus on the profitable tipped segment continues to yield strong results. Middleton's volumes were up 5.3% in the fourth quarter and 5.9% for the full year. In the smokeless products segment, fourth quarter adjusted OCI grew by 4.3%, driven by higher net pricing and volume, partially offset by higher cost. Fourth quarter adjusted OCI margins decreased by 2 percentage points, due primarily to higher manufacturing costs and promotional investments. For the year, adjusted OCI margins expanded seven-tenths of a percentage point to 64.4%, primarily driven by higher net pricing, partially offset by mix, higher manufacturing cost, and higher promotional investments. In the fourth quarter, USSTC grew volume ahead of the category growth rate, and increased Copenhagen and Skoal's combined retail share by 1.1 share points to 52.5 share points (sic) [52.5%]. USSTC's reported shipment volume increased 2.2% in the quarter and 4.9% for the year. After adjusting for trade inventory movements and other factors, USSTC estimates that its shipment volume grew by approximately 4.5% in the quarter and 5% for the year. This growth is well ahead of the estimated industry volume growth of approximately 2.5% over the past six months. In wine, Ste. Michelle grew adjusted OCI by 16.4% in the fourth quarter and 9.9% for the year. Ste. Michelle's reported wine shipment volume grew 4.2% in the quarter and 5.3% for the year. Let me pickup on the tax issue Marty mentioned when discussing our guidance for 2017. For a variety of reasons, we expect that our 2017 full year effective tax rate on operations will be approximately 36% compared to 34.7% for 2016. One of these reasons is because we anticipate fewer foreign tax credits related to AB InBev dividends. Though technical, this is driven by differences in the profit pools between AB InBev and the former SABMiller. That wraps up our results. Marty and I are now happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll direct your attention to altria.com. Along with today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations, we've posted, for your reference, a usual list of quarterly metrics, including pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Investors, analysts and media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for much for taking my question.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Adam.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
So, obviously, your main competitor has agreed to be taken over and there's been speculation with respect to your sales. I was wondering, my first question is, can you outline what you would see as the advantages and the disadvantages of being part of a bigger tobacco group? Because there must be some advantages and there must be some disadvantages.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
No, I think I'm going to steer away from that topic, Adam. As we've discussed previously, I think it's just not appropriate for me to be drawn into either anyone else's transactions or speculation about future transactions. I just don't really know how to discuss that intelligently without going there. So I'm afraid I won't do that.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you. It's a clear and sensible answer I would say. Moving on to the domestic cigarette industry, I was wondering if you could talk about a little bit and give some color about how you're seeing the pricing environments? Particularly in the light of the fact that Imperial has said, if anything, it wants to invest a little bit more in pricing to grow market share perhaps a little bit faster. And also in the light of the fact that, at least according to the scanner data, Reynolds market share has stopped growing and is perhaps declined. So it's really a question about the pricing environment in the light of that. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yep. Thanks for calling in. I appreciate your questions. I won't talk about anyone else's pricing, but I can tell you how we think about pricing and the numbers that we put out I think demonstrate it. Listen, for us, we're a publicly-traded company. We have growth aspirations and our Master Settlement Agreement payment goes up every year and we have FDA payments that go up every year. And our principal income contributor is the cigarette category where the volume goes down. So the strategy there for us is to take appropriate pricing in order that we can grow in line with our aspirations. And we've been able to do that. You've seen that pricing for the year in the smokeable segment of about 4%. If you look at it slightly longer periods, Adam, I think it's on average somewhere between 4% and 5% – it bounces there – and that algorithm works for us in terms of the profitability we expect from the smokeable segment. So that's how we think about pricing.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Jefferies.
Owen M. Bennett - Jefferies LLC:
Good morning, guys. Hope all are well.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Owen.
Owen M. Bennett - Jefferies LLC:
And just two questions, please. Firstly, I was wondering if you could be a bit more specific on expectations for cigarette industry volume into fiscal year 2017. And secondly, could you comment on the current share and share trends of Nat Sherman and then what are your realistic expectations for the brand going forward? Thanks a lot.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. Good questions, both. Listen, I think you know we don't guide on volume, but Billy made reference to this in his prepared remarks. For the year, on an adjusted basis, we've got volume down for us at about 2.5%. But obviously, the declines were higher in the back half of the year than they were in the first half of the year. And you're familiar with all the reasons for that, I know, so I won't repeat them. So we've taken that into account as we thought about our plan for the year. And in addition, of course, we mentioned we've got the California excise tax coming online in April and we've been mindful of that. Listen, we're really happy about the Nat Sherman acquisition. They have a terrific team of people over there. They have a very complementary brand portfolio to us. It's a small share position as you know. It's much more of a niche position. But we believe that when we combine their talented people and brands with the system that we have in terms of retail distribution and brand expertise that we can really make this grow quite nicely. So we haven't put out any targets on that, as you can appreciate from a competitive point of view. But it's a very nice addition to the smokeable segment for us and we're really excited about it.
Owen M. Bennett - Jefferies LLC:
Cool. Thanks very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Owen. Good to hear your voice.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Vivien.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
So two questions for me, please. First, Marty, your commentary about your constructive view on the consumer heading into 2017. Just curious your thoughts on how a potential border adjusted tax would impact that view. Obviously, a lot of moving pieces in terms of the tax proposal. But perhaps more broadly, like what do you think would make you more cautious on the consumer in 2017? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I don't know that we thought that, that would be material. And I guess it's just so – it's moving around so much, Vivien, in terms of what those proposals are that we haven't really built that into our plan. I'll give that some thought, but nothing comes immediately to mind that would change the view that I expressed.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. That's fair. And then secondly on the commercialization team for IQOS, just from a regulatory standpoint as you look at what is permissible in terms of product activation in the United States. Can you point us to a couple of countries where PM is already in the market that would most closely mirror the U.S. from a regulatory standpoint in terms of communication and advertising and consumer engagement? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. That's a thoughtful question. What we're doing is we're trying to look at each of the markets and see about those parallels and extract the – not just the consumer insight but the trade insight. So, for example, if one goes to Italy, as you know, it's quite a dark market. And because IQOS requires a fair amount of exposition to the consumer to understand what it is, I think that PMI would be the first to tell you that Italy's been a bit more challenging. There are other markets that are more open in terms of the ability to communicate with the consumer. You see the results in Japan and you know the regulatory situation there. Our job at PM USA is to read all of that data, and with our expertise about what is permitted in the United States, including under the Master Settlement Agreement, for example, is to weave that into a plan that will meet our goals. What we're going to try to do, of course, is to introduce adult smokers to the product, try to explain what it is and its attributes and to give them an opportunity to see if it's for them. And we've got very good plans coming together on that and many of which, I think, are drawn from the international market experience.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
That's really helpful. Just to follow up on that. So as you understand it like sampling and execution models similar to Italy with the embassies where IQOS would be permissible in the United States?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
We'll have to work through all that. I don't want to prejudge the results on that because we'd want to get a good plan together and take advice to make sure that we're staying on the right side of the line. But our aspiration is to use the tools that are available to us to get very good exposure to adult smokers and to explain to them as best we can what it is and what its attributes are. That's the idea.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Perfect. Thanks very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Good to talk to you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Bonnie.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. So I guess my first question, I wanted to talk to you guys a little bit about this smokeless recall and hoping you could talk a little bit more about that and really how extended it could be. Trying to understand the facility that's impacted, I believe it's one out of five facilities, and my understanding is, you're not shipping out of that plant yet. Maybe give us a sense of when you could be or if you can make up some of the volume or supply from your other facilities. Just trying to understand what kind of impact this could be over the near term? And is this factor – just confirm it's factored into your guidance?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, let me start with that. I think the guidance that was issued this morning, of course, is a range and we've taken everything that we know today into account in issuing that guidance. Listen, I can't tell you much more than what's in the press release because we put in the press release basically what is known. So just to reprise, we've got, as you know, we produce hundreds of millions of cans of smokeless. We have eight consumer complaints with metal objects in the cans and so we've been working closely with the FDA. No one has reported any injuries. What we're trying to do is to make sure that we're doing the responsible thing with respect to the consumers. We want to make sure that we're doing everything we can so that no one is injured as a result of this particular incident. And also, it's important of course to protect the brand trust. So the way I think I would think about it is, of course, it's a short term disruption, but in the long-term what you want to do is to protect the consumer from harm from this and protect the trust of the brand. We actually have two smokeless factories. The Franklin Park facility is the only one that is affected, Bonnie, and it is the smaller of our factories. So the Nashville factory has not been implicated and that's actually where most of the volume goes through. We want to make sure that we've got this buttoned up before we ship any more product out of Franklin Park and we'll do that as soon as we feel like we have our arms around it. And I just can't give you that date while we're on the call this morning because I don't have it.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Well, that's helpful. And then switching gears to IQOS. You mentioned that the expectation for the PMTAs to be filed during the first quarter. So in your mind then a realistic timeframe, when do you expect to commercialize IQOS? Would it be Q4? And then just trying to get a sense for the resources PM might be sharing with you and maybe your plans for opening retail stores to educate consumers about this technology. And any color on that in terms of how many and maybe potential locations and just again, wanted to confirm that the expenses of this are also factored into your 2017 guidance.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I'll take that again last, which is the answer is yes. Everything that we know about right now is factored into the range of the guidance that we issued this morning. That includes the work that we're doing to get ready to commercialize IQOS. As you know, we can commercialize IQOS when the FDA rules on its applications and you know what the schedule for that is. I don't want to really tell folks what our competitive plans are about how we're going to do that. But I would go back to what we were discussing earlier, I guess, which is that the object is to make sure that we get the product to adult smokers and explain how it works and what its attributes are so that they can make a choice about whether it's for them. And there's a whole range of activities that you can use to do that. I just don't want to lay them out, as you can appreciate, for competitive reasons. But we're well underway. We have a crackerjack team on it. We're very excited about the technology. We're working closely with PMI. So from my read, I think all the signals from a commercial point of view are in the right direction and we're just going to have to work through the FDA process.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Understood. That's helpful. And just maybe one final quick question on circling back on cig volumes. I was just curious to hear from you what you saw in December, specifically on volumes. The reason I'm asking is because the scanner data was very weak for that month in particular. I'm just curious if that's consistent with your business and what you think could have been the reason for that. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I'm not sure I can help you on a month by month basis, but you did see that the volume decline accelerated in the fourth quarter. And, of course, I know you know this, but we had one fewer shipping day. So I think that's the way to think about it. It's just hard to grind into it on a monthly basis.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
All right. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Judy.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So when – just a quick follow up on the smokeless recall. If I kind of look at the SKUs that you highlighted in the press release, are we in the ball park in thinking the volume impacted is around 10% to 15% of the total smokeless volume?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
I wouldn't hazard a number because we're not there yet.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. I was just taking all of the SKUs and trying to extrapolate the volume. But...
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean, to explain that we'd have to get into what factory makes what SKUs and at what percentages and that – I just don't think that's a good use of our time.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then, Marty, I think it came up a little bit earlier in the call, but just in terms of some of the potential changes that you may be expecting both kind of on the regulatory front and also on the tax front as it relates to some of the changes that are potentially going on at the agency level as well as some of the corporate tax reform policies, how are you thinking about the base case scenario for those outcomes? And then sort of how that impacts the investments or any kind of decision to invest more into the business or return cash more to shareholders going forward.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Got it. Well, let me talk about the long-term, Judy, and then maybe I'll try to talk about 2017. Listen, to the extent that corporate income tax rates could be reformed as we've discussed previously, that would be a good thing for American business obviously and, as you know, Altria, it would be a good thing for Altria. And so we've had a program underway to try to urge that as a matter of public policy to reduce the corporate income tax rate. We have not built that into our 2017 plans because I think the best thinking is corporate tax reform is pretty complicated. It's likely to take 2017 to do it. But obviously, it would be a material step up for Altria if we got significant corporate tax reforms. So that would be important for us to think about if and when it occurs. I think it's the same thing on a regulatory basis. Both at the FDA and for regulatory agencies, generally there appears to be a movement to try to lessen the regulatory burden on business. Our view that would be good. But those things take time to work their way through the agency. Take HHS for example. We don't even have a cabinet appointee yet much less changes that would occur down the line. So our government affairs team and our regulatory affairs team are working very hard on that. But I would think of those more in the long-term than in the short.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. And then just when you talked about the speed in which some of the SC applications are just getting decided is improving. I mean, just elaborate on what's driving that and did you say you're also spending more resources to make that happen from your perspective?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
We have been investing in both regulatory capability and in R&D capability and I was trying to provide some color around the guidance in that regard because there's more of it than there used to be. The SC process has picked up. Look, if you're at the agency, you're not only looking now at working your way through substantial equivalents, but you have under your deeming regulation a lot of product applications that are going to be heading your way. So we see a pickup in the activity, and our activity naturally has picked up commensurate with that.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Good to talk to you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of UBS.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Good morning. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Steve.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
So you – hey. So you finished 2016 with $1.9 billion remaining on the buy-back and about $2.2 billion more cash on the balance sheet than when you exited 2015. So it seems reasonable to assume you'd expect to execute the vast majority, if not all of the remaining authorization in 2017. But at the same time there are some restructuring costs to consider and we've recently seen you prioritize M&A in the form of Nat Sherman. So and I appreciate you're not going to want to give guidance on this, but just a little bit more color on how to think about cash priorities in the coming year just given all those moving parts.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. Billy?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, thanks for the question, Steve. You're right. We had $1.9 billion left over at the end of last year. From a standpoint of cash needs or the way we think about capital allocation, nothing has changed. And so, when we announced that program, we said we would complete it by the middle of 2018 and you can see with the progress we've made, we're on track to do that. And so really nothing has changed either from a cash needs or cash priorities or from the capital allocation process. Thank you for the question.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you. And just one more on IQOS and thanks for the prior updates that you've been providing on this call. But you'd mentioned Marty, some of the learnings you're drawing from other markets as you look around the world and plan for the launch in the U.S. I was wondering if there are anything unique to your strengths in the U.S. that you might also be uniquely positioned to deploy? And I'm thinking specifically of your mobile app and your digital activation capabilities and how that may play into any rollout of IQOS and how that may differ from other rollouts we've seen around the world? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, that's a good question. We do, as you know we've discussed previously, we have a strong digital marketing team and I'm really proud of the work they're doing on the core business. And you're right to think that there are lots of applications that if you're trying to communicate and educate consumers about what products are, that digital is the way to go. It has to be done empirically and responsibly of course and I don't think anybody would be surprised to learn that we're considering that and others. We have, I think, a significant competitive advantage in our sales force. It's large, they're very talented, they're very well led and so naturally we would be thinking as we go to market about how we can use that to help IQOS be successful. I think we have excellent relationships with our trade partners. That's another area that's going to require a lot of thinking about how we take IQOS to market and working with our trade partners. So those are all areas of inspection. And you're thinking about it the right way which is, what is it that we have that we can use to the best effect to make IQOS a big success.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Very good. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Chris.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. I had a question for you if I could first in relation to pricing. There was a little larger price increase taken back in November. And I know that could be beneficial for profitability, but I suspect you want to reinvest some of that. At the same time, you have a couple of cost savings plans that you're also reinvesting back in the business. So I wanted to understand with that incremental pricing, do we think about that as being another lever, if you will, for you to reinvest back in the business? And are there any areas you're trying to accelerate your investment beyond what you already talked about?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, thanks for the question, Chris. This is Billy. From a standpoint of our productivity, as we previously talked about, some of that productivity would fall to the bottom line, some from a reinvestment. I wouldn't read too much into any specific individual price increase. We think about pricing over the long term. And so we make those decisions for that in that regards. And it's really to balance for our long-term financial goals, so that seven to nine through time.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. You have a very narrow price gap today as well between say Marlboro and discount products. And is that playing into the view that you could take a little bit more pricing in the short run while that gap is quite low.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I was looking at the housekeeping that we put out. If you look, Chris you've probably seen this this morning, but when you look at what happened to the Marlboro net pack price, year-over-year was up $0.12 and the lowest effective – that was $0.12, and then lowest effective was up $0.16. So it's really just the math that narrowed the price gap. But as you know, we're trying to maximize income and to the extent that pricing is an element of that we're always mindful of that.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. I had just one follow-up question. As we think about the California tax increase going into place in April, should we think of – can you – are you likely to experience an inventory build prior to that or anything that could really distort the first quarter and maybe actually help it if they're able to build inventory prior to the tax increase?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, Chris, this is Billy. We don't project any significant changes in inventory. You know they always fluctuate over a shorter time period. That SET does go into place April 1. I do think it has a floor tax provision in it that tends to moderate any inventory movements in a short term basis.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you for your time.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling, Chris.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger of Morgan Stanley.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for the question.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hey, Matt.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I just – hi. I just had two follow-ups on things that have come up earlier in the call. First, on IQOS. You've talked about a number of dynamics that you've taken into account in the EPS guidance for next year. Beyond the equity income and the tax rate, et cetera, how much of a spending contingency are you building into your 2017 plans for some of that commercialization spending on IQOS and continuing to build up that infrastructure?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, gosh, Matt, if I told you I'd have to tell everyone, wouldn't I? So I appreciate the question, but we can't – we're just not going to lay that out as you can appreciate.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Yeah, I know.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, good try though.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Yeah, small, medium or large, I don't really need an absolute dollar figure.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
(39:18) yeah, sure.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. I'm digging deep here. I don't know if anyone's after me but on California, just from a portfolio standpoint, is there any sense you can give us of whether you're materially over-indexed or under-indexed in any way to the state? My sense is that you're moderately over-indexed to California from a volume perspective. But not sure if that's a fair characterization.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
We're strong in California. You're right.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. All right. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks, Matt. Appreciate your questions. See you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of CLSA.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hey, Michael.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Just wanted to follow up on the Nat Sherman expansion a little bit. Can you just give some sense of your execution plans there? Is it primarily a distribution push? Where is it strong now? Where would it sit on the shelf set? Would you integrate it with your current shelf set? And what kind of timing would that take? And what are some of the marketing initiatives you would expect to put behind that?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, I'd like to tell you more but, honestly, the close was just so recently we're working through all of that now. But I can help you, I think, understand what we're trying to do, which is they've got very nice brands and they are differentiated from the current portfolio on smokeable. They tend to be sold a lot, as you probably know, in tobacco stores and some other niche locations. There's no reason that they can't be distributed more widely and I think that would definitely help the brand. I think when you put them in a sales force, like the one that Altria has, you would expect for there to be a good distribution growth there. And we're very excited about it, but we're just not in a position to lay out sort of the strategy for 2017. We've just really closed on it, although they're fast added over there.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. And then on IQOS, I know we've touched on some of these, but can you give some context around some of the potential economics for that and how it might compare to the rest of the portfolio? Is there a substantial royalty? And if so, is there flexibility in how you would think about pricing? Or what's the right way to think about how you manage that relative to the other pieces of your portfolio?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, I think, Michael, when you think about the way we manage our portfolio, we like high margin businesses. We like profitability. You can see from the strategies we reiterate over and over again, it's way too early to get into that discussion with IQOS. Remember that application was just filed. Commercialization would be towards the end of this year, at the earliest, into next year. So we still have a while to go before we can get into those details, but thank you for the question.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
And then just one last one. On any costs associated with the smokeless recall, would it be reasonable to assume that those would be treated as one-time items excluded from adjusted earnings?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
I think, again, Michael, not to push you off into the future, but we just announced that recall. We're in the process of garnering all of that. Rest assured, we felt comfortable issuing the guidance we did this morning, but to talk about how we're going to treat that cost on a go forward basis, it's too early.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
We will now open the call to members of the media. Your next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Thank you for the follow-up question. Very quickly, if I look at your guidance this year, you've got a $0.06 range. Previous years you've had a $0.05 range. I guess that implies that you see a little bit more uncertainty for 2017 than you did this time last year. I was just wondering where you think this range of uncertainty has widened?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks. I actually wouldn't read that into our guidance at all. As a matter of fact, what I would read into the guidance, just for historical reference, this is the strongest guidance we have come out with in January, I think, in the last eight or nine years and I think that's actually what should be read into the guidance. I wouldn't read anything into that range at all.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you. And actually a follow-up question related to the previous one. Obviously when you're preparing your guidance, you have to make some assumptions about your beer business, previously SAB now ABI. And I'm just wondering whether the way you thought about the range of outcomes that you're going to get from beer has altered or whether you're adopting exactly the same mechanical approach now with ABI as you used to with SAB?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, I think from a standpoint of, you know we don't guide down to that level, but to explain how we build it into our guidance, you're right. We build a range of scenarios for all of the factors that we incorporate into guidance. So we ran a range of scenarios on those, very similar to the way we would have with SAB. The only difference is we have a one quarter accounting lag. And so the fourth quarter of 2016 will be recognized in 2017, and then that lag will carry forward. We'll have a full four quarters in 2017. One quarter will be from the fourth quarter 2016 and the first three quarters of 2017. That's the way we incorporate into guidance.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Appreciate you calling back in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jenny Kaplan of Bloomberg.
Jennifer Kaplan - Bloomberg LP:
Hi. Thank you so much for taking the call.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Jennifer Kaplan - Bloomberg LP:
Good morning. Given the potential timeline for IQOS in the U.S., I'm wondering what are your plans for bulking up customer support given some of the technical difficulties faced by PMI, for example, when they first launched in Japan? And kind of the growing pains in getting customers accustomed to the new product? I mean, how do you deal with creating that, sort of, tech support that's obviously not needed for cigarettes?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, thanks for that question. I guess I'd refer back to the remarks I made earlier this morning which is, all of that's under consideration right now. We have the benefit of working closely with PMI to gain the learnings that they've gained in that regard. And we're looking at the tools that we have available at our disposal and thinking about how best to match those goals with the tools that we have. And I'm confident that with the great work we're doing with PMI, and our existing business, we know a lot about this consumer set that we'll be able to solve for a great deal of that. So we're working on that now.
Jennifer Kaplan - Bloomberg LP:
Got it. Just a quick follow up. Is there any sense of a need to hire more people, or different kinds of people, in order to deal with that?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I guess the way I would think about it is you always have a – it's a question of how you're going to deploy your resources against your most important initiatives. And you may have heard us say earlier in the call that the dedicated commercialization team, for example, to work on IQOS, because it's their job to get up every day, and come to work, and think about how to make IQOS a success. So it's not about more, as much as it is, I think about having the right people working in the right focused way. And I'm pretty confident that we have that.
Jennifer Kaplan - Bloomberg LP:
Thank you so much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Marshall (46:40) for any closing comments.
Unverified Participant:
Thank you all for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Unverified Participant Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc. William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2016 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and the question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall (00:41), Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Unverified Participant:
Thank you, Lori. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, our CFO, to discuss Altria's 2016 business results for the third quarter and first nine months. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results, which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results for the same period in 2015. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release. Now I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Bill (01:59). Good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report that Altria delivered excellent performance in the third quarter and for the first nine months of 2016. We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 9.3% in the third quarter and 10.3% for the first nine months. Our core tobacco businesses delivered another quarter of strong income growth on the strength of their leading premium brands. Marlboro maintained retail share near record levels, and Copenhagen and Skoal combined delivered yet another quarter of good volume growth and strong retail share growth. We also continue to simplify business processes, streamline infrastructure and invest in important growth initiatives. In August, our Board raised our dividend per share by 8%, marking the fiftieth increase in the past 47 years. And in September, we further strengthened our balance sheet by tendering for high coupon debt and refinancing it with lower coupon, longer maturity debt. Most recently, with Altria's support of Anheuser-Busch InBev's landmark business combination with SABMiller, we've maximized the value of our SABMiller investment, rewarded our shareholders with an expanded and extended share repurchase program, and enhanced our position in the global brewing profit pool. So with that backdrop, let's look at some of the operating highlights from the quarter and first nine months. The smokeable products segment produced solid third quarter results despite difficult year-over-year comparisons. The segment grew adjusted operating companies income 4.2% in the third quarter and 5.8% for the first nine months of 2016. For comparison, you'll remember that in 2015 adjusted OCI grew 11% in the third quarter and over 13% for the first nine months. The strong year-ago results were driven by several factors including the end of the federal tobacco quota buyout payments. In the third quarter and for the first nine months of this year, PM USA's total retail share was 51.4%. This represents a one-tenth of a share point increase for both periods. Marlboro maintained its industry leading retail share of 44%, up one-tenth of a share point in the quarter and stable on a year-to-date basis in line with PM USA's long-term strategy to maximize income, while maintaining modest share momentum on Marlboro. The smokeless products segment is executing very well against its long-term strategy to grow volume at or ahead of the category growth rate, while maintaining modest share momentum on Copenhagen and Skoal combined. The Smokeless Product segment grew adjusted OCI by 9.4% in the third quarter and 13.2% for the first nine months. Further, USSTC grew Copenhagen and Skoal combined retail share by 1.2 share points in the third quarter to 52.6%. It's the highest level since we acquired USSTC. Copenhagen fueled this growth with a retail share increase of 2.7 points in the quarter, due in large part to strong consumer response to Copenhagen Mint. For the first nine months, Copenhagen and Skoal's combined retail share grew 1 share point to 52.2%. In e-vapor, Nu Mark continued its disciplined rollout of MarkTen XL, optimizing its distribution while maximizing marketplace learning. As you know, FDA's final deeming regulations became effective on August 8, about which we'll say more in a moment. Nu Mark has been focused on preparing for deeming and positioning itself to succeed in the new regulatory environment. It has a pipeline of promising e-vapor products and it continues to enhance its infrastructure and systems to move those products through the required regulatory approval processes. In the heated tobacco space, we continue to partner with Philip Morris International on its FDA applications for PMI recently announced that it remains on track to submit a modified risk tobacco product application to the FDA by the end of this year, with a pre-market tobacco product application following early next year. At Altria, we continue to make progress on our commercialization strategies for the U.S. market. We're excited about this opportunity and are working closely with PMI to incorporate insights from other iQOS markets. Speaking of the FDA, a word of color might be useful now that the August effective date of the deeming regulations has passed. First, we're pleased to report that John Middleton and Nu Mark have taken the necessary steps to comply with the regulations, and we believe they are well-positioned to move forward with their strategies in the new environment. More generally, all tobacco products are now FDA regulated. For us and others in the industry, this means greater regulatory complexity and more resource commitment. For the agency, this also means more work and the need to make progress on the existing backlog of substantial equivalents in new product applications, particularly as it prepares for a large volume of applications for newly deemed products. To that end, the agency now appears to be resourced and staffed, which we're seeing reflected in the increased pace of its work across all regulated segments. Our strategy continues to be to focus on complying with the requirements of the act, while engaging constructively with the FDA to urge sensible interpretations consistent with the act. We also are encouraging FDA to promote good public policy like harm reduction, and to create a regulatory environment that fosters innovation. Through this approach, we aim to maintain a constructive relationship with FDA while protecting the rights of adult tobacco consumers and other important stakeholders. In other areas, we remain focused on simplification and cost management to improve our core businesses and invest in future growth initiatives. Today we announced plans to consolidate certain of our operating companies' manufacturing facilities to streamline operations and achieve greater efficiencies. John Middleton will transfer its Limerick, Pennsylvania, operations to the Manufacturing Center site in Richmond, Virginia. USSTC will transfer its Franklin Park, Illinois operations to its existing factory in Nashville, Tennessee and to the Manufacturing Center site in Richmond. Employees affected by the consolidation will be offered the opportunity to transfer into available positions, and our hope is that many of them will want to do so. For employees who do not transfer, they will be eligible for enhanced severance and benefits. We expect to complete the consolidation by the first quarter of 2018, and to deliver approximately $50 million in annualized cost savings by the end of 2018 over and above the previously announced productivity initiative. Finally, let's touch briefly on our beer investment. We are very excited that on October 10, Anheuser-Busch InBev completed its business combination with SABMiller. Following the transaction, the new combined grouped retained the name AB InBev. In connection with the closing, Altria received roughly 185 million restricted shares of AB InBev, representing a 9.6% ownership of the first truly global beer company and one of the world's largest consumer packaged goods companies. We also received approximately $5.3 billion in pre-tax cash, resulting from the terms of the partial share alternative including proration, and proceeds from the currency derivatives we entered into to hedge our British pound exposure. As you saw, we also announced our Board's decision to expand and extend our previous $1 billion share repurchase program to $3 billion, which we expect to complete by the end of the second quarter of 2018, and Billy will say more about our investment in the combined AB InBev in a moment. As to guidance, we reaffirm this morning our 2016 full year adjusted diluted EPS guidance to be in the range of $2.98 to $3.04, representing a growth rate of 6.5% to 8.5% from a 2015 adjusted diluted EPS base of $2.80. Long-term, our financial goals remain unchanged. So in summary, we had an excellent third quarter and first nine months and firmly believe that we are on track to achieve our full-year financial goals. So with that, I'll turn things over to Billy for more detail on our performance.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with the smokeable products segment. PM USA's reported domestic cigarette shipment volume declined 1% in the third quarter, primarily driven by the industry's rate of decline, partially offset by trade inventory movements. After adjusting for trade inventory movements, PM USA estimates that its cigarette volume declined 3% in the third quarter, in line with PM USA's estimate for total industry decline rate. For the first nine months, PM USA estimates that its adjusted cigarette volume declined 2%, in line with the industry. As you know, we have seen a moderation in cigarette industry volume declines over the last 18 months or so, as positive macroeconomic factors have benefited the adult tobacco consumer. While some of these factors are still present, the decline rate appears to be gradually reverting back to long-term historical norms as we expected. Smokeable segment adjusted OCI margins expanded by seven-tenths in the third quarter to 47.7%. The margin expansion was driven by higher net pricing and lower manufacturing cost, partially offset by higher resolution expenses and higher SG&A cost as a result of valid initiative spending. For the first nine months, adjusted OCI margins in the segment expanded 1.6 percentage points to 48.6%, driven by the same factors. Marlboro continues to innovate to maintain the brands vibrancy and relevance. Adult smokers and retailers are responding enthusiastically to Marlboro's digital engagement efforts, as Marlboro mobile coupon redemptions continue to increase in line with expectations. And recently, PM USA announced the national expansion of Marlboro Slate, a bold menthol product in the Marlboro Black family, with innovative packaging featuring soft touch ink. In cigars, Black & Mild remained the overwhelming leader in the profitable tipped segment though it lost some share overall. Middleton grew Black & Mild's reported volume by 5% in the quarter and 6.7% for the first nine months, contributing to the smokeable segment's income growth. In the smokeless products segment, reported shipment volume increased 5.6% in the third quarter and 5.9% for the first nine months of the year. After adjusting for trade inventory movements and other factors, USSTC estimates that its shipment volume grew by approximately 6% in the third quarter and 5.5% for the first nine months. This growth outpaced the estimated industry volume growth of approximately 3% over the past six months. Smokeless segment adjusted OCI margins declined slightly in the quarter, down three-tenths to 63.5%, due primarily to higher manufacturing costs and valid initiative spending. For the first nine months, adjusted OCI margins expanded 1.6 percentage points to 66.1%, primarily driven by higher net pricing partially offset by mix and higher marketing investments. In wine, Ste. Michelle grew adjusted OCI by 8.6% in the quarter and 6.2% for the first nine months. Ste. Michelle's reported wine shipment volume grew 6.3% in the third quarter and 5.8% for the first nine months. Now for a bit more detail about our beer investment. Altria's investment in SABMiller contributed $299 million in equity earnings in the third quarter and $564 million for the first nine months. After the closing of the transaction and through October 24, we used a portion of the cash proceeds to purchase approximately 12 million ordinary shares of AB InBev for a total cost of approximately $1.6 billion. Including these shares, Altria now has approximately 10.2% ownership of AB InBev. For ownership levels at or above 10%, Altria is entitled to foreign tax credits available in connection with the dividends we receive from AB InBev as we were with SABMiller previously. As a reminder, we will use the equity method of accounting for our investment in AB InBev and we'll report Altria's share of AB InBev's results using a one quarter lag because AB InBev's results will not be available in time to record them in the concurrent period. Previously, Altria recorded results for its SABMiller investment concurrently with Altria's reporting calendar. As we wrap up our results, let me provide a few additional thoughts as we move forward. In the fourth quarter, PM USA will have one fewer shipping day and Altria will, of course, have the impact of the AB InBev accounting lag. Beyond the fourth quarter, state excise tax increases remain an ongoing challenge. We are closely watching four ballot initiatives that will go to vote in November, including a proposed $2 per pack tax increase in California. We're actively engaged on this issue and are preparing for all potential outcomes. That wraps up our results. Marty and I are now happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll direct your attention to altria.com. Along with today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations, we've posted, for your reference, a usual list of quarterly metrics, including pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Investors, analysts and media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. We will take questions from the investment community first. Your first question comes from the line of Steve Powers of UBS.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Steve.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
So, I guess, just to start, even with the one quarter lag in ABI's contribution to earnings this year, your current guidance is within your long-term 7% to 9% target range. But as we look forward, I guess the question that I'm getting a lot of is, is the goal to make up for that lag as we think about fiscal 2017 and over deliver on the long-term algorithm next year, or do you want investors to think more about discontinuing 7% to 9% off the reported fiscal 2016 base? Because I think acknowledging some of the excise tax uncertainty, et cetera, smokeable trends seem very solid, both price and volume. Smokeless and wine appear strong and you seem to have a little bit more flexibility than might be usual when we think about your productivity programs and the excess cash that you have to deploy post the ABI. So can you just help us weigh those puts and takes as we think about the next 12 months to 15 months?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. Thanks, Steve. I can help you some and we'll be able to help you more when it's time for guidance. Listen, our long-term financial goals haven't changed. As you know, we're trying to grow long-term, 7% to 9%. That's not a guidant. That's a long-term growth aspiration. You see we've been able to do that pretty consistently about 8% over the last several years. That's basically what the model has been producing. And then as we get into each year, we look at all of the factors that we put into our guidance for a given year, and you've pointed out some factors that we're going to have to put into the guidance for 2017 given the transaction. What I would like to communicate to investors as opposed to getting ahead of guidance before it's due is how well the businesses are performing. You're right to point out that the businesses are strong and we're doing well, but there are some puts and takes every year when you do your guidance, and we'll do that when we release our guidance in January. So that's how I would encourage investors to think about it. We'll have more to say about that in a little while.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. That's very fair. And then just if I zoom in on the quarter-to-quarter dynamics, especially in the smokeable segment, it looks like you finished Q3 with trade inventories a bit elevated versus what might even be considered normal alongside industry decline normalization. So I guess in that context, is it fair to assume that shipment declines, as we think about Q4, will be at least in line with consumption declines, and maybe even a bit more severe than consumption trends given those inventories and the one less selling day?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, we don't give volume guidance forward on the quarter but there was a trade inventory build in the third quarter. If you look at the housekeeping items especially, Steve, you can see that there was a bigger build there than there was for the year-ago period. And Billy's already pointed out, I think that there's going to be one fewer trade – shipping day for PM USA, so that's how I think probably about the volume for the quarter without getting into numbers.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And then one last one if I could, and this is actually on e-vapor. And I guess it's a longer term question about how far away you may be from moving towards more automated manufacturing versus hand assembly in brands like MarkTen, and how might sort of deeming in that context impacted your path towards achieving better scale and better profitability on e-vapor over time? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, that's an interesting question. The long-term desire, of course, is to be as efficient as you can in manufacturing, and that would include our desire to have automation for the e-vapor products that are appropriate for that. You have to get the product right before you can scale to automation. But there's no question, we've been working very hard on our cost base for the e-vapor products, and automation ultimately would help us to do that. We've got some more investing to do so I probably wouldn't expect that in the short-term but it's on our list of things to think about for sure.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Thanks very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling, Steve.
Operator:
Your next question comes for the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen and Company.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Vivien.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
So another good quarter for Marlboro in terms of your long-term aspirations from a market share perspective, but the price gap is about as low as I've seen it going back through my model, and the retail pricing growth of 1.9% was a little bit lower than we've seen over the last few quarters. So I was hoping can you just comment on some of the activity that's ongoing in retail, number one, and number two, your level of comfort with Marlboro's price gap? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for those questions. Well I guess I'd start out by saying that it's always competitive out there and it continues to be competitive, but I don't think there's anything particularly material to call out that's different than what we've talked about already in the year. And with respect to Marlboro, we're very happy with how Marlboro is performing. We've pointed out, I think, in the remarks we just made that it's up a tenth through the third quarter and it's hovering at near record share for the year. Our strategy in this category is to increase our income while maintaining modest share momentum. And actually, if you look at Marlboro from a share perspective, pick one period, say from 2011 forward, we've grown two share points. We look at it over time. It's doing its job and I would say it's doing its job especially well in light of the fact that we had a transaction last year and some owners got new the brands and they've obviously been working hard in the marketplace to try to advance them. So we're very happy with how Marlboro is doing.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
That's very helpful. Thank you for that. On the ballot initiatives that you called out, obviously you guys are actively working to affect a favorable outcome, but to the extent that perhaps the California ballot measure does pass, can you give us a sense of how you think that would impact 2017 industry volumes? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, I'm reluctant to predict that, I guess. I guess what I should say about the ballot initiatives, California's not the only one. As you know, Vivien, we're working really hard on them. We're engaging with people to try to persuade them that, that's not the right approach to do because our consumers are already very heavily taxed. There's a fair amount of volume in California, obviously, and you know the elasticities and so I think that you can work out what that would be. We remain hopeful in California but it's a challenging environment.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
That's fair. Thanks. And last one for me, if you could just remind us of your expectations around the timing of the iQOS submissions to the FDA? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, they remain on track. I think we've pointed out in our release this morning, as well as in our remarks, I think that they remain on track as PMI has previously outlined, and that's the last that we have on that. And it looks just like it's go.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Terrific. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with CLSA.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hey, Michael.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Just following up on iQOS. Actually, I wanted to see if you could help us understand. You say you're putting in the modified risk application first and then the PMTA. The PMTA seems a little bit – if I understand it right, maybe more straightforward or almost like a predecessor to the modified risk one. Can you help us understand how you think about the timing there?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I actually would direct you to PMI because they're – obviously, it's their application, Michael. But I can help you a little bit which is – I think it's simply the volume of work that has to go into those two applications. As you know, they're quite voluminous in terms of the documentation and I think the sense is, if the MRTP application is ready given the timelines on those, that the thinking is to go ahead and to get it in and then swiftly follow up with the PMTA. But I think it's just the volume of work to get the two applications in. I'm not sure I would read anything particularly into that, but you could follow-up with PMI.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
No. That's helpful. That does help. And then just related to iQOS and the consolidation of the manufacturing announcement that you made. Obviously, approval is needed before you even commercialize the product, and only then, I think, would it probably make sense for you to think about production. But assuming at some point you're interested in production here in the U.S. for iQOS, do you have any sense of whether that also still has room in Richmond, or might that be a separate facility? Or is it too early to say, or just how you're thinking about how you might look ahead a little bit on that?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. It is too early to say, but I can give you a high-level strategic viewpoint which is, what we're trying to do, obviously, is to make the best use of our manufacturing footprint that we can. We have a world-class manufacturing facility here in Richmond with the MC, as you know. And to the extent that those facilities can be used for other purposes, we've been mindful of that, particularly as cigarette volume goes down.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I guess my first question is about your smokeless margins, which were down in the quarter. So I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about what some of the drivers of the 30 bps decline were, especially, I guess, given the strength you had with Copenhagen, and really how you're balancing those share gains with your profitability in the business?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, Bonnie. This is Billy. I'll take that one. When you look at a shorter-term period, you can be affected by timing of spending. So I pointed out in the remarks the manufacturing cost. If you look at manufacturing costs on a year-to-date basis in the smokeless category, it's virtually flat. Again, if you look at the margins through the first nine months, they're up 1.6 percentage points. So again, in a shorter time period, you can be affected by the timing of the spending. Thanks for the question.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. All right. And then I have another quick question for you I guess on your wine business. I was hoping you guys could drill down a little further on some of the things that are going well in that business and then maybe not so well, and then an update on your plans for this business over the next several years in terms of further investments, and if you guys plan to increase your investments whether that be organically or via acquisitions.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, thanks for the question about the wine business, which is really a terrific business and so it gives us an opportunity to call that out for our colleagues in the wine business. You've seen the numbers. It performs extremely well, they have tremendous brands and they've been growing their adjusted operating company income strongly over time. We have previously said that it is not our strategic intent to be a consolidator of the wine industry, which is, as you know, a highly fractured business. But what we do is we provide sufficient capital to the wine company from time to time so that if they want to make a small acquisition in order to improve their business or to invest in their sales force, or to help their distribution capability and the like, we do that. And they're a very nice, if small, contributor to Altria. So I want to commend the work they do, they do a terrific job but I wouldn't want to leave anyone with the idea that we're trying to be a big consolidator in wine because we are not.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
All right. Thank you.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling, Bonnie.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey. Good morning, everyone.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Judy.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So Marty, I guess the big elephant in the room here is the potential consolidation of rentals or the full ownership of BAT of rentals. So I know it's a little bit early and there's a lot of different scenarios that can play out but what do you think are sort of the implications for you guys as you think about both the smokeable and the e-vapor business?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. Listen, I'm sure you can appreciate. We're just not going to comment on that. It's just been announced that there's been an approach and we make a policy of not commenting on other folks' transactions. So I hope you forgive me but I'm not going to say nothing more about that.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. I forgive you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thank you.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
And then I guess maybe switching to your cash balance. So Billy, can you just clarify the net proceeds that you've gotten as it relates to the ABI deal?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah. So as Marty mentioned, with the ABI deal and the closing of the hedged positions, we got $5.3 billion in pre-tax. We'll pay the full tax burden on that, so approximately $3.5 billion net cash proceeds after-tax from the transaction.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then post the deal, you've bought another $1.6 billion additional shares. So I guess if I sort of work through the cash balance, you're probably somewhere around $4 billion, $4.5 billion at this point?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
That's correct. And then we have the tax burden that'll come out of that.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. So I guess, first my question is just, I mean, it seems like it's a pretty sizable amount even considering the stepped-up buyback program that from a timing standpoint actually extends to 2018 anyway. So can you just help us frame sort of other potential uses of cash as you think about your pretty sizable cash balance that you have currently, and then obviously the cash generation that will continue to step up as you go forward?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. It's a good question, Judy, and I would just step back from that and kind of remind you how we think about capital allocation and cash follows them. So you know, we – first and foremost is the 80% dividend target payout ratio. And then after that we put that excess cash to use. You've seen us in the past do debt tenders, you saw us do a debt tender refi even this year. At times we look at our pension plan and fund it. Marty mentioned small tack-on acquisitions from time to time such as Green Smoke or small wins in wine. So we try to put that money to use to the best use for our shareholders. In the most current period, you saw us put some of that to use managing the diverse income streams and buying additional shares in ABI. So that's the way we think about it and that's the way we put it to use.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then just one clarification, the treatment of the – so the impact on the cash flow from the ABI investment, so I guess, obviously, the equity income is more from a P&L perspective but you'll get the cash benefit from the dividend. And so the treatment of the tax on that dividend, can you just help clarify the ownership threshold and how that impacts the actual cash proceeds from the dividend?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure, Judy. As you mentioned, the dividends will be unaffected. The lag that I mentioned is an accounting lag based on the recognition of the equity income. As far as the dividends received, if you own over 10% of the company, you are entitled to any foreign taxes that they paid associated with those dividends and you can take a credit for those. So being about the 10% allows us the opportunity to use foreign tax credit against those available dividends.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So it's pretty straightforward. You take the 10.2% of the dividend and then that flows completely through the P&L – to the cash flow?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Whatever dividend they declare against our share, so it's a rate per share, that's the dividends we will receive when they declare dividends. As far as foreign tax credits, it's based on what's available to be applied against the dividends that we receive.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Got it. All right. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks, Judy.
Operator:
Our next question comes for the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Hi. Thank you for taking my question.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
I'd like to go back to the elephant, if I may. And I appreciate that you don't talk about other companies, but one of the things BAT said was there were benefits from being an integrated global company. And so I'm wondering just from talking about Altria, not talking about them, can you talk about the positives and also the negatives that would be involved if you were to somehow be combined with a big international tobacco company?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Adam, I very much appreciate your invitation to get me comment on it through another means, but I'm afraid I'm not going to do it. It's just not appropriate at this time. You have to indulge me, I'm sorry.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
It was about you not them, but would you – I mean, do you see any synergies in operating with another company?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Listen, those are so fact specific as to any transaction that might ever be proposed that it would just be wrong for me to start hypothesizing about that.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Fair enough. Talking about Middleton, I know it's a very small part of your business. Volumes were up quite nicely in the quarter, but you also lost a little bit of share. I was just wondering if you could talk in more detail about trends you're seeing in the large cigar market, obviously large machine-made cigar market?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Sure. I can tell you exactly how we've been thinking about it, which is at the highest level there's essentially two segments in that category, Adam. There's the tipped segment and then there's an untipped segment. And in the tipped segment, which is where the bulk of the profitability is, we are the overwhelming leader there both in terms of share and in terms of the profit pool. The untipped has been, for several years now, following a federal excise tax increase subject to very, very heavily promotions and the profit pool has been diminishing there. So our strategy is to be the leader where the profit pool is and that's in the tipped segment. So you can see that the overall share goes down a little bit, but actually in terms of our share of the profit pool, it's in the tipped segment, where we're doing great.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you for your question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Chris.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. I just had a couple questions. First off, maybe a question to Billy. When you adjusted your EPS guidance for the accounting change in the ABI-SAB transaction, that's roughly $0.03 change that occurred, it was less than expected. I was just curious if there's anything unique that may – are you going to have several days in the quarter where you report some profit, but you won't have a full quarter's worth of profit? Is there anything unique to that calculation or the amount of profit you'll show? And if I could just add to that, I'm more interested in just how it may affect the going forward? Is there anything that would maybe take away from something in the first quarter if it helps you here in the fourth quarter, if that makes sense?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Yeah, Chris. Nothing particularly unique but you mentioned a period that we'd still own SAB in the fourth quarter. That is a true statement and we would recognize that the way we used to recognize SAB earnings. The remaining part of the quarter will be a lag, and that'll be recognized in the first quarter. But yeah, that's what we adjust the guidance for. That was what was included in there.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Okay. And I had a question on – as you think about the applications from Philip Morris into the FDA for iQOS or heat not burn products, and I'm just curious how you're sharing maybe in the duties, if you will, the costs associated with that? And will your costs that you bear for the eventual launch of those products, will those really pick up as the applications go into place? Are you getting quite involved in those and therefore your costs could accelerate say in Q4 and Q1?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Well, I won't get into the costs necessarily, Chris, but you're right to point out that we're working together on it. It's PMI's application, but obviously we have substantial expertise with the FDA and the FDA processes. And I would say that the teams are working together very, very nicely on the work, and there's a great deal of collaboration. And then of course on the Altria side, what we have is our plans with respect to commercialization and branding and go-to-market and the like. And again, the collaboration between us and PMI has been very high including, as I think we've pointed out in our remarks, getting the benefits of the various learnings and their markets. And so the teams are working well together but I'm not – you'll forgive me, I just don't want to get into the cost at this time.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Sure. Thank you. And then just one quick one if I could, there was a little bit of – and if you just look at like the ending inventory for this quarter versus the period a year ago, a little bit of increase in inventory year-over-year. My question relates to – I know that always can vary, but is there anything related to these potential excise tax increases? Is that too early to be showing any inventory build that may occur prior to excise tax increases?
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
I don't think there's anything remarkable to call out there. As you know, it does vary from quarter-to-quarter and year-over-year. It just looks like the trade built more inventory in the third quarter than they did in the year ago. So you've got that comparison of that I think is the honest answer.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you for the time.
William F. Gifford - Altria Group, Inc.:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes to the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Hi, Nik.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
So a couple of quick questions for you guys. Is it conceivable that we will even see iQOS in the U.S. in 2017 just given the application process? That's the first question and then I have two more.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. I guess anything's conceivable but the applications do take time, Nik. It's probably more likely to be after that.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Perfect. And then, Marty, can you remind us what happened with the California ballot initiative the last couple of times? I mean, I recall that the margins were pretty tight in terms of the vote and the ballot. Just give us a little case study on what happened the last two times if you remember?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I can do the last one for you for sure which is that you always start out behind in these things so you ask people if you want to raise cigarette taxes. Because many people don't use the products, it sounds like a good idea. You wait your campaign and what happened last time, Nik, was that the margins closed over time and it was very close. I can't remember what the exact percentage was but I believe it was less than 1 percentage point last time. And the no votes basically, I think, crossed that line late probably like the last week.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Perfect. And then the final question, I never thought I'd ask this question but just given what's going on globally and things that – almost like we're going back in history with the globalization of the tobacco industry. But philosophically, like how do you guys think about getting into non-tobacco businesses? Like I'm not talking about wine because you've made that very clear, but I'm just thinking about some of the core capabilities and competencies that you have, your expanse of distribution, footprint in C-stores. I'm just trying to get a sense, have you ever considered or do you consider ever kind of diversifying out of tobacco into other fast-moving goods?
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
I can tell you the model we use which is the adjacency model. You're right to point out core competencies. Our history is that this is a company that owned a lot of different businesses over time, food businesses and other businesses. And I think what we learned over time was that while we have terrific people and lots of resources, we're very, very good at the tobacco business and we know how to run it. That doesn't mean that it's the only business we could run, but you have to be disciplined about what you have to bring to the party so that you can run a business better than somebody else can run the business. So that's the model we used. We're also mindful, of course, of the margins we have and how you're going to deploy capital if you get into other businesses. So we have a highly developed model. Our business development team is consistently running scans to look for what might work, but we have to be pretty disciplined about it.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Very clear, Marty. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Altria Group, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks, Nik. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Members of the media are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Marshall (42:01) for closing comments.
Unverified Participant:
Thank you all for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President-Investor Relations Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Russell Miller - RBC Capital Markets LLC Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Aaron Grey - Cowen & Co. LLC Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2016 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO and Billy Gifford, our CFO, to discuss Altria's 2016 second quarter and first-half business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results which is available on our website at altria.com or through the Altria investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2015. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which excludes items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release. Now I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Sarah. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Altria Group delivered strong 2016 second quarter and first half results, growing adjusted diluted earnings per share by 9.5% in the second quarter and by nearly 11% for the first half. Our core tobacco businesses continued to produce very strong results, with yet another solid quarter of income and retail share performance. Marlboro matched the record retail share it set in the first half last year, and Copenhagen and Skoal produced excellent share results on a combined basis. And we continue to reward our shareholders, paying out more than $2.2 billion in dividends to shareholders thus far in 2016. So here are some of the operating highlights from the quarter and the first half. The smokeable products segment continued to produce excellent results. Despite difficult year-over-year comparisons, it grew adjusted operating company's income by 4.5% in the second quarter and nearly 7% for the first half. You'll recall that last year the smokeable segment grew adjusted OCI by nearly 16% in the second quarter and over 14% for the first half. This growth in 2015 benefited from higher reported volumes at PM USA driven by stable industry volume and a trade inventory build influenced by upcoming cigarette excise tax increases. In the second quarter of 2016, the trade depleted inventory levels. So when adjusted for these inventory movements, PM USA estimates its second quarter cigarette volume declined 3%, in line with PM USA's estimate for the total industry decline rate. For the half, PM USA estimates that its adjusted cigarette volume declined 1.5%, in line with the industry. For the first half of 2016, Marlboro's retail share was unchanged at 44.1%, matching its record share level set a year ago. Marlboro's second quarter retail share also was 44.1%, down one-tenth of a point from the year-ago period. We are extremely pleased with the smokeable segment's performance in both the second quarter and first half of 2016. Our Smokeless Products segment continued to deliver excellent income performance, robust volumes, and strong share growth on Copenhagen and Skoal combined. USSTC grew adjusted OCI by nearly 14% in the second quarter and more than 15% for the first half. USSTC estimates that its volume, after adjusting for trade inventory movements and other factors, grew approximately 5% in the second quarter and 4% for the first half while estimated smokeless industry volume grew approximately 3% for the past six months. Copenhagen and Skoal increased their combined retail share by 1.5 points in the second quarter and by nine-tenths of a share point for the first half. Copenhagen's retail share gained nearly three points in the quarter benefiting from the first full quarter of Copenhagen Mint's national expansion at retail. Copenhagen Mint has performed extremely well, bringing excitement to the brand for both adult dippers and for the trade. Skoal's retail share declined 1.3 points in the second quarter, reflecting in part USSTC's portfolio strategy to invest behind Copenhagen and expand Copenhagen Mint. And as you know, part of USSTC's strategy is to grow the combined share of Copenhagen and Skoal. In Innovative Tobacco Products, Nu Mark continues to invest with discipline in developing a portfolio of products to meet the evolving preferences of adult tobacco consumers. In e-vapor, market results for MarkTen XL remain encouraging as Nu Mark has now distributed the brand into stores, representing approximately 50% of e-vapor category volume in mainstream retail channels including C-stores. On the heated tobacco platform, our work with Philip Morris International on its FDA applications for pre-market authorization and a modified-risk tobacco product destination remains on plan, and we're making excellent progress on commercialization strategies for the U.S. market. As you know, in May, the FDA published its final deeming regulations, extending its regulatory authority to all tobacco products including cigars and e-vapor. We believe we're well-prepared for these regulations, and Nu Mark and Middleton are working now to comply with them. Our companies also continue to engage with FDA and other stakeholders to advocate for changes to the regulations where we believe appropriate. So in summary, we're very pleased with our first-half performance. Based on these results and our expectation that our businesses will deliver solid results over the balance of 2016, we now expect to deliver 2016 adjusted diluted earnings per share in a range of $3.01 to $3.07, representing a growth rate of 7.5% to 9.5% from our 2015 adjusted diluted EPS base of $2.80. As a reminder, this guidance does not include any impact from the proposed AB InBev/SABMiller business combination as the transaction remains subject to certain approvals and the closing date has not yet been determined. Speaking of our beer investment, we're pleased with the significant progress AB InBev has made securing regulatory clearances. AB InBev has announced that it has obtained approval in 22 jurisdictions, including approvals in the United States, North America, Asia-Pacific, Africa, Europe and Latin America. And AB InBev continues to pursue the remaining regulatory clearances that are necessary to close the transaction. In addition, as you know, on July 26, AB InBev announced its revised and final offer to SABMiller. This offer among other things would increase the pre-tax cash that Altria expects to receive to $3 billion from the previously estimated $2.5 billion. The other material terms related to Altria remain the same. Internally, our teams are preparing to transition our investment from SABMiller to the new combined entity. One such area of preparation is coordinating how our accounting teams will share information. And through this preparation, we now expect a timing difference between how we currently report results for our SABMiller investment and how we'll report for our investment in the new combined company. Once the proposed transaction closes, we expect to record our share of results from the new company on a one-quarter lag. Billy will provide you with more detail in his remarks. We remain excited about the proposed transaction and look forward to supporting the combination of these two great companies. Now I'll turn things over to Billy for more detail on our performance.
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with some more color on the smokeable products segment. Adjusted OCI margins expanded by 2.6 percentage points in the second quarter to over 50%, primarily driven by higher net pricing and lower SG&A costs, partially offset by higher resolution expenses. For the first half, adjusted OCI margins in the segment expanded 2.2 points to 49.2%, primarily driven by the same factors. PM USA's reported domestic cigarette shipment volume declined 5% in the second quarter, primarily driven by the industry's rate of decline and trade inventory movements. In the second quarter last year, the trade built inventory ahead of excise tax increases in several states that went into effect in the next quarter. For the first half, PM USA's reported cigarette shipment volume declined 2.1%. At retail, PM USA's overall share was unchanged in the second quarter and grew 1/10 of a point for the first half. In cigars, higher shipment volume contributed to the smokeable products segment's performance in both periods. Middleton grew Black & Mild's volume by 7.5% in the quarter and nearly 8% for the first half by focusing on the brand strength in the more profitable tipped segment. In the Smokeless Products segment, adjusted OCI margins expanded in the second quarter by nearly 3 percentage points to 69.3% and by 2.6 percentage points to 67.5% for the first half, primarily driven by higher net pricing, partially offset by mix due to higher popular price product volume. The Smokeless segment's reported shipment volumes increased 4.3% in the second quarter and 6% for the first half of 2016, primarily driven by the industry's rate of growth and retail share gains. In wine, Ste. Michelle continued to deliver strong income by growing volume of its premium wines. During the second quarter and first half, Ste. Michelle grew adjusted OCI by nearly 6% and 5% respectively. Ste. Michelle's reported wine shipment volumes grew more than 3% in the second quarter and 5.5% for the first half. Altria reported equity earnings from its SABMiller investment of $199 million in the second quarter and $265 million for the first half. So let me close with some more information on the accounting of our beer investment that Marty mentioned. For context, Altria currently records results for its SABMiller investment concurrent with Altria's reporting calendar. Because NewCo's results will not be available to us in time to record them in the concurrent period, we expect to report our share of NewCo's results using a one-quarter lag. This means that after the transaction closes, there will be a one-time three-month transition when no earnings from our equity investment in NewCo are recorded in our income statement. For example, Altria's share of NewCo's results in the quarter in which the transaction closes will be recorded in the subsequent quarter. The precise periods affected will depend on when the transaction closes. It's important to understand that this lag will not affect our cash flows or quarterly dividends per share, but we do expect it to impact our year-over-year comparability of our reported and adjusted diluted EPS in the short-term and could also affect 2016 adjusted diluted EPS guidance. As noted in our earnings release, our guidance does not yet include the impact of the expected lag because the transaction remains subject to certain approvals and the closing date has not yet been determined. That wraps up our results. Marty and I will now take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll direct your attention to altria.com. Along with today's earnings release, for your reference, we posted our usual list of quarterly metrics including pricing, inventory, and other housekeeping items. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Investors, analysts and media representatives are now invited to participate in today's Q&A session. We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Chris. How're you?
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
I'm doing very well. Thank you. Nice report here.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
I just had two questions for you, if I could. There was a comment in the release about higher promotional spending in both smokeable and Smokeless. And I know you've had, certainly in Smokeless, a good number of – some new product activity to help you there and I imagine that's the main item that's driving that. But I was curious within the smokeable division how you see the promotional environment and if there was an area you gotten more aggressive on and where that promotional spending was rising.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Maybe I'll start, and then I'll ask Billy to comment on how it flowed through. I think that the environment remains relatively constant, Chris, is your short answer. It's competitive out there; it always has been but we haven't seen any material changes. Billy, do you want to say more about it?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
No. I think the only thing I would add is, Chris, from a timing quarter to quarter in a short period, you'll have timing fluctuations. You'll recall as part of our productivity initiative, one of the areas we said we would reinvest in was brand building. And so this is reminiscent of that.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Got you. And then just a question overall on the category. Down 3%'s a little different from what Reynolds had indicated. But either way, we're moving back towards more of a normalized rate of decline. I know you don't like to give guidance on volume. So in this quarter with the gas price down, the consumer still in better shape, it looked like volumes did weaken a little bit sequentially more than I expected. Anything you'd offer in relation to that? And if you could speak at all about the second half, that'd be great as well.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure, Chris. Listen, we don't see anything in the quarter that causes us to call it out for you. I do think it's consistent with what we've said and you and others I think have said over time that you would expect for the long-term trends to revert back to their trend line. If you look at 2015, we ended the year up a half (0.5%). The quarter before was down a half (0.5%), and now for the year so far, the first half we're down about 1.5%. So 1.5% obviously is lower than the long-term trend line, but it's higher than it was in 2015 when we had these interruptions because of the gas prices and all. So I think it's consistent with how we see it, Chris, which is it's just slowly reverting back to the long-term trend line.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. That's very helpful. Thanks for your time.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right, Chris. Thanks for calling in.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.
Russell Miller - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Morning. This is Russ Miller on for Nik.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Russ.
Russell Miller - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Just a philosophical question for you guys. How does Altria think about innovation within the context of the new deeming regs and the FDA's more stringent view on substantial equivalents? And more specifically there, should we assume innovation will be delayed from hitting the market? And if so, how should we think about volumes in that context? Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thanks for the question. For a thorough summary, I think of our views, I might refer you and others to the comments that we filed – I'm sure you've seen them – in which we picked up this very point. We do think that innovation in the category is important. We're working very hard on our innovation system and on innovated products for the adult tobacco consumer. And we believe that it would be good public policy for the FDA to encourage that. Our comments have pointed out to the FDA that some of what's in the deeming regulations does not seem to be particularly friendly to that concept. And so we continue – I think we mentioned in our remarks this morning, we're both complying with the regs and we're trying to influence and advocate where we think the regs could be improved. And I think in the area of innovation, I think you've picked up on an area where they could be improved. I think it's too soon to tell what the effect will be on volumes. I hope that's helpful to you.
Russell Miller - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
That's excellent. Thank you, Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Judy. Good morning.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So I just wanted to clarify the industry volume numbers and understand there may be some differences in how you adjust for inventory adjustment, but it still seems like a pretty big gap in terms of what you're reporting as an adjusted industry volume decline versus Reynolds. So is a 3% decline just purely sort of industry shipment that you estimate and then adjusted for? Your estimate of the inventory movement and when you think about sort of the true consumption decline, whether you'd look at wholesale shipment to retail or retail takeaway, is that 3% you think is the more representative of the true consumption decline?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me make a comment, and then I'll ask Billy maybe to talk about how we do the estimate so as to try to help you. Remember, it's a tough comp because the industry was stable for the second quarter of last year. So in terms of the underlying, I think that's the way to understand it. And I'm sure you heard the conversation we just had with Chris about the reversion to the trend over time. I know, Billy, we can't comment on how other people estimate, but maybe you could help Judy with how we estimate it.
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Sure. Judy, basically the way we approach estimating that industry decline is we take total shipments that are reported and then we look at inventory movements and we adjust for those inventory movements so that we get towards a more true consumption offtake, to your point. And then the only other difference in this period is a calendar day difference. And so those are the major factors that we would adjust for to get to a more consumption offtake.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then, Billy, just – I mean, the press release talks about the accounting of SABMiller transaction and some of the quarterly lag. So maybe just help us frame kind of what we should expect, and I know you're not necessarily talking about the updated guidance, but just broadly speaking, how does that impact potentially the full year guidance and just more on from a timing standpoint?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Sure. Really kind of reference, I'll give you an example. So if this transaction were to close in the fourth quarter, SAB would be recorded as we currently record it. All those results from NewCo would be picked up and recorded in the first quarter of 2017. So that's how that one quarter lag affects from a go-forward basis.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So the accounting of the equity income based on the 27% still holds, even if the transaction closes at the beginning of the fourth quarter for your year impact?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
That is correct. It continues until NewCo comes into existence and then those results are on a quarter lag.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling, Judy.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, Matt.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks, Marty. I guess I just had two follow-up questions on deeming. First – this may be pretty straight forward – but could you give us a reminder of where you stand on the challenge that you filed to the descriptor ban included in the cigar deeming portion? Do you have an injunction? Do you expect to have an injunction by August 8 or would you have additional flexibility to continue marketing your products beyond that date?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yep. Good question and I'm pleased to tell you the matter has resolved. So we had objected to that, as you know, in our comments and FDA put it in the deeming regulations. We filed suit and FDA has informed us that they do not at this time intend to enforce that against Black & Mild. And in consideration for that, we have withdrawn our lawsuit. The parties have reserved their rights, but we will continue to use Black & Mild unless something changes.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. That's good to hear. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yep.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
And just another one. Even though the published regulations didn't make any immediate changes in your ability to market products with characterizing flavors, the red line draft that was made public afterward indicated that the FDA had initially intended to take a more rigid position on flavored products...
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Right.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
And voiced some concerns around their impact on youth consumption. So the end outcome was favorable, but I'm just curious how you interpret the implications of the red line draft and what that might mean for their orientation toward menthol going forward?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, we'll have to see going forward. I mean, I think menthol stands on its own merits and I won't repeat what we both know, Matt, on that. You know the science on that and we've put in our papers on that. So I'm not sure it has a big effect on menthol. I do think that there have been instances in which some in tobacco control have argued to take flavors away from adult tobacco consumers in the name of trying to prevent youth consumption. Our view on that is that there is so much that can be done to prevent youth consumption, most of which we have worked on and the numbers are trending in the right direction that we want to defend the flavors for our adult tobacco consumers who have enjoyed them and the cigar category is a perfect example where flavors have been in that category for, gosh, decades and decades. So we'll have to see how the FDA approaches that, but we think that they're actually very separate issues about youth consumption and flavors.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you, Marty. I appreciate it.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for the questions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Vivien Azer with Cowen and Company.
Aaron Grey - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Good morning. It's Aaron Grey on for Vivien.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Aaron. How are you?
Aaron Grey - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Doing well. After benefiting from a benign excise tax environment over the last few years, I was hoping to get an update on the state excise taxes. Given we saw three states pass tax increases in the first half of the year and have open legislation as well as notable proposed ballot initiatives, how should we think about the outlook for the weighted average SET over the course of the year?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, we have a little bit of information in that in the housekeeping, but you're right, we've had three increases so far in 2016 – Louisiana, West Virginia, and most recently, Pennsylvania. We also had the phase-in effect of a few that were passed previously that came into effect, Connecticut, Minnesota and Oregon, if I recall correctly. The weighted average I think is $1.56 as we stand, but we will have Pennsylvania coming online obviously after August 1. So it has heated up a little bit. It's a good question. We continue to resist these. We think they're unfair to adult tobacco consumers, but state budgets being what they are, we just have to go through this every year. The one that I would recommend that you be watchful, of course, is California where the ballot has qualified. So that's proposed $2 which will be on the ballot in California in November.
Aaron Grey - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. All right. Great. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right.
Aaron Grey - Cowen & Co. LLC:
And with MarkTen XL distribution representing 50% of volume coverage in traditional retail, what can we expect as it relates to the cadence of XL's roll-out going forward?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, we're trying to step into it with discipline. We're trying to go where the business is. The stores that we've chosen have good e-vapor business. We've had a very good marketplace response. We've had very good consumer response. So you know our strategy there which is we have aspirations to be the long-term leader, but we want to proceed with financial discipline, always learning from the consumer. And I'm very pleased with the progress that MarkTen XL is making in that regard. So I would expect more of the same kind of an approach.
Aaron Grey - Cowen & Co. LLC:
All right. Great. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling in with your questions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lavery with CLSA.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Michael. Good morning.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Just curious if you could talk a little bit about how you think about some of the resource allocation – just looking at margins in Smokeless now, they're a hair shy in the quarter at least of 70%. So do you give a disproportionate amount of R&D resources there, or to some extent I recognize you need to follow the consumer, but how much can you also try to maybe lead them a little bit versus say vapor? That's a different margin profile, certainly at least at the moment, and some different competitive dynamics. How do you think about all that? And of course, price is a lever as well, and we saw that in the quarter too. How do you think about balancing all those to take advantage of the opportunity in that segment?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, we have a process to do that, of course. Actually, I have two processes. We have a strategy process and it's tightly linked to our budget process. So our operating companies come in with their plans. We've talked about this previously. We have one-year plans and three-year plans and longer-term plans, and they make the case for investment, and then Altria Group decides on how to allocate resources about where the best opportunities lie for our shareholders. And the good news is all of our operating companies have lots of good ideas, so it's always a good discussion about where best to go. But that's the process we use, Michael. We look at it, and then when we put our strategy and our budget together for both one-year, three-year and longer plans, we try to put the resources where we think the greatest opportunities lie, including in margin enhancement.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay. Thank you. And then looking at the other segment and PMCC, your finance assets on the balance sheet certainly have been coming down. Obviously, you've been not investing in that business and essentially unwinding it. Can you give a look ahead at what the trajectory is on that? Certainly some of these leases have long lives, but you've been doing some sales opportunistically. What should we expect for what that contributes near-term and maybe medium-term?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. I think Billy can help you with that.
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, you're right, Michael. From a standpoint the net finance receivable is down to $1.2 billion and we have been unwinding that business for quite some time now. We look at those leases and when it makes sense to sell those, we do. As you recall at CAGNY, we talked about a three year to four-year wind-down period that we would have before we're completely out of that.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
And is there anything that might accelerate that, or is that pretty likely to stick? What's the variance to that, possibly?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, leverage leases is kind of complex, but in the life of a leverage lease for both the counter-party and us, there's a, if you will, a nice period of time when those sales make sense to both parties, and so that's what really drives the unwinding of that business.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay. Thanks. And then just lastly on iQOS, obviously there's a long process in terms of potentially commercializing that here. And needless to say, the FDA application is the one of the nearer-term and bigger pieces of that. What's the right way to think about some of the costs and investments, and to what extent would that be offset by some of the reinvestments from your productivity savings from this year?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I think we talked about this when we announced the productivity initiative, which is that we do want to make some continuing investments of area of long term value to the shareholder, and clearly an investment in innovative tobacco products, particularly those with the potential to reduce harm, are high on our list for investment. So we haven't given much detail below that. Not to preempt your next question, Michael, but those are the areas. And I think when you think about vapor and iQOS and other innovative products for consumers, that's a good place to invest for the long-term proposition of both the company and for our consumers.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Have you had an ability to engage with the FDA yet and have any sense on how receptive they might be to a heat (29:55) platform?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I think we talked about this last time, right? Which is that I didn't want to comment in too many particulars about an application that involves obviously PMI, because it's their product that they're trying to get qualified. But we did talk about the process. And the process is, there is typically a high degree of engagement between the manufacturer that's trying to bring that product to market and the FDA staff. I think we talked previously about, for example, you don't want to design and execute clinical trials which are lengthy and expensive without knowing that the FDA I think is thinking that you're asking the right questions. So I would also point to comments that Director Zeller has made publicly about understanding that there is a continuum of harm among tobacco products and that the agency has to be thoughtful about how they encourage manufacturers and consumers to migrate to these kinds of products. So, these things aren't done until they're done. But I continue to be optimistic that this is the way forward, by bringing innovation to consumers which may reduce harm. It's a good idea for everyone.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling, Michael.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Bonnie. Good morning.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. I just had a quick follow-on question from an earlier one on your level of spending behind brand building. Just hoping to get a sense of how much this might accelerate in the second half or should it be more evenly spread throughout this year? And then any thoughts on where your spending levels behind brand building will need to increase in the future? Just kind of want to get a sense of will levels stabilize or do you think you need to keep increasing spending to maintain some of the share gains you've been getting?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Billy, you want to take that?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Sure. Bonnie, when you think about brand building, it'll fluctuate from time period to time period. But I would not expect material fluctuations as we move forward. You always have fluctuations in a shorter time period compared to others. From a standpoint of on a go-forward basis, you'll recall the strategy here is to maximize income and keep Marlboro healthy – the share momentum there. And so that's what we invest towards, that's what the top line strategy is for that segment and that's the way we think about that segment of the business.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. And then I had a question on Marlboro. I was hoping to get a sense of what Marlboro volume was during the quarter, if you can adjust for the inventory fluctuations. And then could you drill down a little bit further on some of the different styles such as special blends and their performance? That would be really helpful.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I could try to help you a little bit. I know that we've had this conversation before.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Yep.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
There is a desire, I know, to get under that. We just don't break them out. I mean, we have the tables in the earnings release which shows as much as I think we're willing to disclose. Look, the way to think about this, Bonnie, I think is that overall, Marlboro continues to perform terrifically. You know, because most of our shipments in the Cigarette segment are Marlboro. And actually, you would expect for the volume to track. But we don't report at that level. But Marlboro's doing great. It continues to have, as we mentioned, record share if you measure it against the half. Its equity is doing great. The Marlboro architecture continues to perform well. You and I have spoken previously about the exciting digital marketing for adult...
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Yeah.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
...tobacco consumers, and we've improved the app further and we've got exciting promotions on there. So I think the way to think about Marlboro is it's doing exactly what we want it to do and it's doing it well.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Yeah, speaking of that, I was going ask you a little bit more on that because I do keep hearing positive feedback on your Marlboro app. So give us a sense for the rollout and where – or how many stores that app is being used in and where that can be by, say, the end of this year.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, well, we're working it at two levels. One is directly with the consumer, obviously, because adult consumers, once they're age-verified, can get the apps and participate that way. But another big area for us – and we're very grateful for the partnership with our trade partners. Our trade partners are increasingly excited about the ability to use their loyalty programs with our digital marketing and our apps and the like. And so many of our trade partners are working with us on that. So we're getting very good distribution on that. I'd like to say that I think that we're ahead on this and I think that our trade thinks we're ahead on this. And our consumer reception has been nothing short of terrific. So it's very efficient and it's very responsible and we're reaching the people we want to reach in a responsible kind of a way. And I think it's the way forward.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. One final question, which I know you're probably not going to want to answer this but I'm going to bring it up.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
The pre-tax cash proceeds from of the sale of SAB. Certainly $3 billion is a lot of money. I'd love to hear a sense from you of where these proceeds will be used. But if you can't say that, maybe just update us on your priorities for free cash co [consideration].
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. Out of courtesy to you, I'm going to hand it to Billy to see if he'll accommodate you, Bonnie. How about that?
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
All right.
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Hey, Bonnie. Thanks for the question. Yeah. We have not made decisions around the $3 billion. But I can walk you – let's step back from that. So absent the $3 billion – here's the way we think about allocating our capital, the excess cash. So we think about, of course, dividends first and that's that 80% dividend target payout ratio. Then when we have the excess cash, you've seen us do a multitude of things with that. Certainly, we do share repurchases. You've seen us do debt tenders and you've seen us do debt tender refis. So this being excess cash, we would assess it based on market conditions at the time and make the appropriate decisions.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
All right. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for the question, Bonnie. We'll see you.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Bye.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Powers with UBS.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Steve.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. Good morning. Maybe another question on the ABI/SAB that you probably won't want to answer but I'll give it a shot.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
From a different angle – and it's one – the updated outlook which, aside from the $2.5 billion going to $3 billion is pretty much consistent outlook on that deal. It assumes a pretty high degree of confidence – or implies a high degree of confidence in very limited, if any, kind of proration risk. And given the value gap between the PSA and the cash offer for SAB shareholders, I'm just trying to get a sense for how confident you really are in that proration risk being minimal. What kind of insight you have to the SAB shareholder base and how to assess that risk as you look forward?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, Steve, I appreciate the question and I know there's a lot of interest in this. But I think it's probably best this morning that we kind of limit our remarks to what's in the earnings release and in our prepared remarks. We tried to give you as much color as we thought was appropriate under the circumstances. But some of those questions I think are really best directed at the two principal parties to the transaction and I want to respect that. So I'm going to be careful about this, as you can appreciate.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Billy, anything you want to add?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No. I think Marty covered it.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
All right. And then I guess from another angle, fundamentally, everything seems to be pretty solid up and down the P&L across the business line. So I guess is there anything – focusing on things within your control, are there areas where you're more focused, more risk that you see, whether it's implementing the productivity initiative or any of the go-to marketing initiatives you've got in place? Anything that you're more focused on where the fundamentals, not to say they're weak but just more where they're more in question?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No. I don't think so. Listen, we don't want to sound, for a moment, arrogant about it, but the business is really performing well. I think the strategies are the right ones. And I have to commend the people at our operating companies and our service companies. They are executing with high fidelity to the strategies, with high focus and high alignment. And I think that's why the results are what they are. So look, there's always risks to the business. You know what they are. I mean, you've got regulation and taxes and the like. But I wouldn't call out anything of the sort that you're asking about, Steve.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. Thanks for the questions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Adam Spielman with Citi.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Question. If I can come back to the deeming regs, and in particular two questions. First of all, you said you're in conversation about trying to change aspects of them. And I wonder if you could just highlight what you are most keen to change that you think there's a realistic chance that the FDA will listen to what you're saying and actually change how they're approaching deeming? And the second question is this. Reynolds has said that they believe based on Mitch Zeller's comments about continue of risk, that they're seeing some ways they may take a more relaxed approach to pre-market approvals for e-vapor products than they have done, it would seem, with cigarettes. And I guess the related to question to that is, do you agree with that? And do you think those will be a difference in degree of let's say, harshness of interpretation of cigars and e-vapor products? Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. Thanks for the questions. I'll give you an example on your first question, which is predicate date. We had argued to the FDA and advocated to the FDA, as did many others, that it made little sense to go back and use a cigarette predicate date of 2007 for products that basically came into the marketplace after 2007. So...
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Yep.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
...there continues to be a lot of dialogue about that. It's not limited to the FDA. You know that there are legislative proposals pending. And so I think a lot of people think that it would be wise to revisit that question. We certainly do. And you may have heard the conversation we had earlier about encouraging innovation. Using that predicate date, to us, does not seem to do that. So that's one area. With respect to PMTAs, I'm not familiar with the conversation you referenced with someone else, but I can tell you that it would seem to make sense that for pre-market approvals, you certainly if you were the regulator, ought to be taking into account the degree of harm of the products. And so cigarettes, as we all know, bear a high degree of risk and while the evidence is not completely in, it appears to be that, because they don't burn, e-vapor probably has a lower risk. That, of course, ought to be taken into account in approving whether they should come to market. So that would seem to be a sensible approach. I think that's a development that would be good for consumers and for manufacturers and for public health.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Thank you very much. Can I just come back? I do understand that Congress may change the predicate date, but assuming they don't, do you think there's any realistic chance that a dialogue other than via Congress or maybe through litigation will actually alter that date?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I hope so. Listen, FDA has a job to do. We have found them to be open to listening to reasonable arguments. But at the end of the day, Adam, it's up to them. But we have not found them to be immune from listening to points of view and hopefully coming to some reasoned judgment on it. Particularly if other stakeholders besides us weigh in on it, as I understand is the case.
Adam J. Spielman - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. Thanks for those questions.
Operator:
We will now also open the call for media questions. With no further questions, I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs for closing remarks.
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, everyone, for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President-Investor Relations Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. Priya Ohri-Gupta - Barclays Capital, Inc. Gregory Chwatko - Goldman Sachs & Co. Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2016 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We are here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO, to discuss Altria's 2016 first quarter business results. Earlier today we issued a press release regarding these results. For additional review, please see the earnings release on our website at altria.com or through the Altria investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we are comparing results to the same period in 2015. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which excludes items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's release, which is available on our website and via the Altria investor app. Now I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Sarah. Good morning, everyone. Altria is off to an excellent start in 2016, growing adjusted diluted earnings per share by 14.3% despite a tough 2015 comparison. Both the smokeable and smokeless product segments saw robust, adjusted operating companies income growth and expanded margins. Altria paid over $1.1 billion in dividends. So once again, our first quarter results illustrate the strength of our core tobacco businesses and our focus on execution. Here are the highlights from the quarter. The smokeable products segment continued its outstanding performance with contributions across the brand portfolio. In the quarter, adjusted operating companies income grew 9.2%, primarily driven by higher net pricing, higher volume, and lower SG&A and manufacturing costs, partially offset by higher resolution expense. Cigarette industry volume declines were moderate in the quarter, supported by lower gas prices and employment and wage growth, which continued to benefit adult tobacco consumers. PM USA's volume did even better than the industry decline rate due to modest share gains, though the growth was flattered a bit by an additional shipping day and trade inventory movements. For the quarter, PM USA's total retail share was 51.4%, up 0.3 of a percentage point. Marlboro's retail share remained at 44%, and L&M gained share in discount. In the machine-made large cigar category, Middleton's focus on the more profitable tipped cigar segment continued to produce strong results. Middleton's volumes were up 8.3%. So we are very pleased with the smokeable segment's performance. PM USA's investments to maintain a vibrant Marlboro franchise and our long-term approach to the business continue to pay off. Turning to the smokeless product segment, USSTC continues to execute against its strategies, and that produced a strong quarter. Adjusted operating companies income grew 16.7%, driven by higher net pricing and higher volume, which benefited from the national expansion of Copenhagen Mint and modest overall share gains. Copenhagen and Skoal grew their combined retail share by half of a share point. Once again, Copenhagen was both the fastest-growing smokeless brand and the largest, growing its retail share by 1.1 percentage points to 32.4%. In mid-March, USSTC expanded Copenhagen Mint nationally with a strong awareness and trial generating plan. Copenhagen Mint is rooted in Copenhagen's essence of authenticity, masculinity, and craftsmanship and allows the brand to compete in all major smokeless flavor categories. Our sales force quickly gained strong distribution, and we are receiving positive response from our trade partners. In innovative tobacco products, Altria continues to invest in developing a leading portfolio of products to meet evolving adult tobacco consumer preferences. In e-vapor, Nu Mark continued to expand distribution of MarkTen XL as early marketplace results have been encouraging in lead markets. On the heated tobacco platform, our work with Philip Morris International on an FDA application for a modified-risk tobacco product claim remains on plan. And our teams are making excellent progress on branding and go-to-market strategies for the U.S. Turning to beer, AB InBev and SABMiller report that they are targeting the second half of 2016 to obtain the necessary approvals needed to complete the transaction. We remain excited about the transaction and look forward to supporting the combination of these two great companies. Internally, our teams are preparing to transition our investment from SABMiller to the new combined entity, and we look forward to sharing more details about that at the appropriate time. In late January, Altria announced a $300 million productivity initiative designed to maintain its operating companies' leadership and cost competitiveness. We've made significant progress on the program. In particular, we have completed the design and realignment of our organization. So in summary, we are off to a strong start. We are reaffirming our guidance for 2016 full year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $3.00 to $3.05, representing growth of 7% to 9% from our 2015 adjusted diluted EPS base of $2.80. As a reminder, this guidance does not include any impact from the proposed AB InBev and SABMiller business combination, as the transaction remains subject to certain approvals and the closing date has not yet been determined. Now I'll turn things over to Billy for more details on our performance.
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. As Marty mentioned, we saw great results across our core tobacco businesses, led by our smokeable products segment. The smokeable products segment increased adjusted OCI margins by 1.7 percentage points in the first quarter to 48.1%, due primarily to higher net pricing, higher volume, and lower SG&A and manufacturing cost, partially offset by higher resolution expense. For the quarter, PM USA's reported cigarette shipment volume increased 1.2%. After adjusting for an extra shipping day, trade inventory changes, and other factors, PM USA estimates that its cigarette volume decreased approximately 0.5%. PM USA estimates that total industry cigarette volumes decreased approximately 1% in the first quarter. In the smokeless product segment, adjusted OCI margins expanded by 2.4 percentage points to 65.5%, driven principally by higher net pricing. For the quarter, USSTC reported shipment volumes grew 7.8%. After adjusting for trade inventory changes, including Copenhagen Mint pipeline volume and other factors, USSTC estimates its smokeless volume increased approximately 3%. Both Copenhagen and Skoal grew volumes, which were partially offset by declines in other brands. USSTC estimates that smokeless industry volume grew at approximately 2.5% over the past six months. In wine, net revenues grew 8.2%, driven by solid volume growth of 8.1%. Volume growth was primarily driven by strong performance among its core premium brands and the timing of the early Easter holiday. Ste. Michelle's operating companies income grew 3.7%, while segment margin contracted 0.9 of a percentage point to 20% due to increased costs. In beer, Altria recorded reported equity earnings from our SABMiller investment of $66 million, down from $134 million last year. This decrease is due to Altria's share of SABMiller pre-tax special items, primarily reflecting asset impairment charges. Finally, we continue to make returning cash to shareholders a priority, paying over $1.1 billion in dividends and repurchasing $168 million in shares. As of March 31, Altria had approximately $797 million remaining in the current $1 billion share repurchase program. We continue to expect to complete the program by the end of 2016. An important part of our strategy is to manage our strong balance sheet to deliver consistent financial performance. We are pleased to report that last month, Moody's and Standard & Poor's both upgraded Altria's long-term corporate credit rating one notch, to A3 and A-, respectively, reflecting our solid balance sheet, strong business fundamentals and the leading market positions of our businesses. That wraps up our results. Marty and I will now take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll direct your attention to altria.com. Along with today's earnings release, for your reference we've posted a list of quarterly metrics, including pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger of Morgan Stanley.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the questions.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Matt.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I just had two. First, with 14% EPS growth this quarter – and, Marty, I think you characterized it as a relatively tough comp versus last year, and a continuation of the volume and pricing trends that we saw last year still carrying through, did you consider taking up full year guidance, or taking up the low end of the range at all? And, what are the arguments against getting a bit more optimistic at this point in the year?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Listen, we are 12 weeks in, I guess is the honest answer. It's a great start. The businesses are in good shape, Matt. We're very pleased with the performance. I want to congratulate the teams at Altria for the work they've done. But we're 12 weeks in, and we are always careful as we start out the year. Remember, we've also got some state excise tax threats that remain out there that we are working our way through. And so that's how I would recommend that we think about that right at this moment.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Marty. And from a legislative standpoint, there continues to be a fair amount of activity around efforts to raise the smoking age to 21 in a few states. There was a bill that didn't make it through in New Jersey, and now there's another bill in Massachusetts this week. I know it's difficult to predict how and whether these things actually go forward, but I'm just curious if you could give us a sense of what, if anything, you think the practical impact might be if a 21-plus law goes into effect in a state. Is there a tangible impact on volumes? And,is there anything underlying from a regulatory standpoint that you think is contributing to this higher level of legislative momentum?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Good question. Let me try to take, maybe, it in two pieces. One is what should be happening, and then what is happening. What should be happening, I think, is that the FDA statutes should be observed. We are all in favor of minimum age. We're the company, I've pointed out, that led the efforts to get minimum age laws in place where they weren't. But the reference point has historically been 18 years. There are a few differences in a few states. But if we look at the Master Settlement Agreement or the FDA bill itself or other reference points, it's been 18 years. I think we can all remember that when the statute was passed by FDA, what was supposed to happen was the question was supposed to have been studied by FDA, a report filed with Congress, and then you could have a debate about whether it should be raised or not. And so that's what should happen, and we support that process as we supported the FDA bill. Unfortunately, what's happening is we have states and localities, with all respect, that are not observing that approach. And so there are these efforts. And the efforts have taken a bit of an uptick. To dimensionalize the volume and the population, I think the population of that cohort, say 18 years to 20 years, is roughly – I don't know – call it 3% or 4%, Matt. The volume estimate, I think that I've seen one published, it's about 2.5%. So that assumes that it all happens and it all comes in at once. So obviously the impacts would be more muted over time. But I think the most important thing would be to encourage people to allow an informed debate based on science and evidence over at the Congress. And that's what our position is on it.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. That's very helpful. Thanks, Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thanks for calling in, Matt.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of UBS.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Good morning. So, obviously, strong volumes this quarter across the board. But drilling down into smokeable and smokeless, what do you think accounts for the sequential volume acceleration versus where you were in Q4, even on the more difficult year-over-year comparisons? And how do you think your shipments compare to sell-through? In other words, was there any degree of catch-up from last quarter or any degree of selling ahead of demand in Q1? Maybe I'll just start there.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thanks for the questions, both. Let me separate out the categories, I think, which might be helpful for precision. Let's start with smokeable. So on a – if we look back at full year of 2015, PM USA actually grew its volume, right, by roughly 0.5%, if memory serves. And then in this quarter, Steve, what we've got is on an adjusted basis down actually 0.5%. So it's obviously well below the historical trends of 3% to 4%, but actually on a sequential basis in cigarettes, the decline has picked up a little bit, but just a little bit. I think that's the way we'd think about smokeable. The smokeless volumes, our industry estimate is, on a six-month trailing basis, we estimate about 2.5%. That's actually relatively consistent with our estimate, I think, for the last two years if you look at it on an average basis. Our shipments were flattered a little bit, obviously, because we had the launch of Copenhagen Mint. So that's how we look at the volume. I guess what I would say is the volumes continue to be strong on both segments, and that's good for our business.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. If I shift gears a little bit – and you alluded to it in your opening prepared remarks, but there's obviously a lot of chatter and excitement around iQOS and heat-not-burn generally. Based on what you're seeing in other markets around the world and the progress that you've made yourselves here, could you just update us in a little more detail on your thinking about that platform and what a launch in the U.S. will sort of ultimately look like in terms of its cadence over time? Thanks.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Thanks for those questions. We continue to be excited about iQOS. As you know, we will have the exclusive rights to that product in the United States. We are working on two tracks. We mentioned this, I think, in our remarks. We are working closely with PMI on the FDA application to get it approved in the United States, and hopefully approved as a reduced-harm claim. And that's an important strategic development for the category generally and certainly for Altria. The other thing that we're doing is we're working on our branding plans and our go-to-market plans and how we intend to commercialize it in the United States. And I don't want to get ahead of the work, because we haven't announced anything yet, but I continue to be very excited about what I see. I think it's important to bring these kinds of products to the adult tobacco consumers. And I think it represents a major opportunity for FDA to work with the industry on harm reduction. So we're excited about all that.
Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you, Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay, Steve. Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Bonnie.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. I just had a quick follow-on question on your guidance. Other than the potential for state excise tax increases that you mentioned, are there other factors or possible drags you're anticipating in your business over the next three quarters that you could highlight for us, since your guidance implies slower EPS growth of around 6.5% for the remainder of the year at the midpoint of your range?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm not sure I have much to add to what I said earlier, Bonnie, which is – you know, there's no question we are off to a very good start. We're very pleased about that. The businesses are all in very good shape. We're just 12 weeks in, that's all. And we're trying to be prudent about that. That's the sum total of it, if you want to know the truth.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. No, that helps, that there's no other big headwinds that you're foreseeing. It's just being prudent at this point. And then in terms of Marlboro, I was hoping you could give us a sense of what Marlboro volume was during the quarter, adjusted for the extra shipping day and inventory fluctuations. And I'd love to hear more color on your Marlboro app and where you're at with the rollout, as well as any incremental learnings you have gleaned from this new app in terms of consumer behavior, for instance.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Right. So we give reported numbers, as you know, for the brands, which are in the tables in the release. And then we try to do an adjustment at the category level. That's about all I can help you with on that. On a more positive note, we continue to do really good work in the digital space. The Marlboro app has been very well received. We had very good cooperation with a number of our trade partners, who I'd like to thank for that. We now have the Marlboro couponing app, for example, on their platform in many places. The Marlboro coupons are being accepted in more than 100,000 retail locations. It covers about 70% of industry volume. Marlboro.com, the digital platform for age-verified adult smokers, is really doing great things. We had several promotions over on the Marlboro.com side that had some of the biggest interest that we've had in a very long time. So everybody is working in the space. We are very proud of the teams that are doing the work on this. I think it's a terrific and a responsible way to connect with both our Marlboro smokers and competitive adult smokers. So we're very pleased about how digital is going.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. And then just one final, if I may. I was just hoping you could share your thoughts or views on the recently released Royal College of Physician report out of the UK which recommends the widespread promotion of electronic cigarettes for smoking cessation. And then it also states that e-cigs are likely to be beneficial to UK public health. So, Marty, I don't know if you've had a chance to kind of look at that, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on it if you have.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No, I was getting ready to take your questions this morning, Bonnie, so I did read the headline. I saw the headline. I think I'm going to read the report when I have some time later today. The headline does seem to be consistent with what many in public health are saying, which is these innovative products hold promise. And they have to be done responsibly, of course, but they do hold promise for helping adult smokers migrate to less harmful products. But I'd like to – if you can allow me, I'd like to read the report in full.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay, fair. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. Good to talk to you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of CLSA.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Michael.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Just back on iQOS, a couple things. Could you just talk a little bit about – I know at one point, if I'm not wrong, you were talking about thinking you might have the FDA application in maybe a little earlier this year. Now it's later in the year. Are you able to work with the FDA offline ahead of that? Or can you just give some color on how the preparations look and what might be driving some of the timing?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Let me separate out for purposes my answer this application, then the process generally. I think that's probably the way to do it. We remain – I think you've seen PMI say this – that I think the schedule remains for late third quarter, perhaps fourth quarter of this year, to file the application, which is consistent with, I think, what we've said before. These applications are quite voluminous. There's a lot of science and clinical – I'm sure you've been briefed on that; it's a lot of work. I don't want to comment about talking to FDA about this application, but generally speaking, I can tell you how it works, which is when you want to have applications like this, you want to partner with FDA. And so we communicate with FDA regularly on our issues and try to get feedback from them. I think in the pharmaceutical side, for example, it's well-known that if you're going to design clinical trials, you want to go in and talk to your regulator and show them your trial protocols and get feedback on that before you go to that time and expense. So I would say generally it's working about the same way. And that's what you would expect if you're going to have a good relationship with your regulators, which is what we see.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay. That's very helpful. And then just to follow up on that on iQOS if and when it does get into the market, would that be subject to MSA payments? And could it depend on how you brand it?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I think there are some questions to be worked through there. I think at a very high level, without getting ahead of ourselves, I think if it's characterized as a cigarette, which, as you know, there's the device, and then the cigarette which is warmed, the cigarettes would be covered by the MSA. I think that's the thinking.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay. Thanks. And then just one last one on the cost savings. You've got the $300 million productivity restructuring initiative. Can you give any sense of the pacing of that? You talked about how the reorganization was complete in, I think, March. Would that mean that the bulk of the savings that you expect are now on track to be realized the rest of the year?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me just start and then I'll hand it to Billy for a word of detail. Remember, the productivity initiative consists of a couple of pieces, one of which is the organizational realignment. I think that is largely completed and our organization is now really in place and going. And then there are other SG&A savings. And, Billy, you may want to say a word about that.
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, Michael. We had a little bit of those savings in the first quarter, but you are correct in thinking that the majority of those savings would be progressing as we move through the year. And that was all incorporated in the guidance.
Michael Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
All right, good. Perfect. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling, Michael.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Judy.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So on the cigarette industry, just from a competitive standpoint, it seems like the environment hasn't really changed all that much since all of the deals have happened. So just wanted to get your color on how you'd characterize the competitive environment today after all of the new contracts from your competitors have been implemented. And then, in that context, how would you characterize Marlboro's share performance? I know you look at it on a longer-term basis, but it looks like Marlboro's share has been relatively stable over the last six or seven quarters. So can you just talk to that situation?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Let's start with the competitive environment. It's always competitive, and it continues to be competitive. But I think you're right that there hasn't been a marked change in that regard subsequent to some owners getting new brands. They're executing the strategies that I think they said they would execute. They are the strategies that we would expect for them to execute. And as you might expect, we have very good plans in place. At a very high level what I would say is we have been the market leader for decades. There's a reason for that, through thick and thin, which is we have very good people, we have the leading brands and the leading positions. And so while we respect our competition, I assure you that our people are ready to compete in this new environment. We haven't seen anything that's markedly different there. With respect to Marlboro, I'm tempted but I won't reprise the presentation that we put on in CAGNY just a few months ago about all the many strengths of Marlboro. You're right, Judy. It's modest share momentum over time, and a quarter is not over time. I think when we were talking about this several weeks ago, we looked back, and Marlboro has actually grown about two full share points if you look back from the period, call it, 2007-2008 to-date, which is terrific share performance for a brand that's as big as that. One way to look at the competitive environment is how PM USA did in the quarter. So just to call out again a few of the highlights. It grew its income more than 9% over a tough comp. It expanded its margins. It had net pricing realization in line with the long-term trends. So it's a terrific performance despite the fact that we have a transaction and there are some new owners of new brands out there. I think that's how we'd look at it.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. That's helpful. And then, Billy, just a quick question on your MSA settlement cost in the quarter. It looks like it went up something like 9% on an absolute dollar basis, and your volume was up 1.2%. So it looks like per-unit costs went up more than I would have anticipated. So is that sort of the run rate number we should be using for the rest of the year? Was there anything unusual about the Q1 expense?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, thanks for the question, Judy. Nothing significantly unusual in that. You hit the first point, which was volume was up, so that drove it up higher. And then every year we have the inflation factor that gets topped on for the MSA. So those are the two major drivers of MSA for the quarter. But thanks for your question.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
See you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Priya Ohri-Gupta of Barclays.
Priya Ohri-Gupta - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you so much for taking the question. Given your recent upgrade to A3/A-, is there any change in your philosophy around balance sheet management and shareholder returns?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Billy?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, thanks for your question. No, no change in strategy or philosophy. Look, we want to maintain our investment-grade credit rating, and that's what we strive to do. We are pleased with the upgrades because we think it's recognition of the strong balance sheet that we have and the strength of the businesses. But yeah, no change in the underlying strategy.
Priya Ohri-Gupta - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you so much.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Chwatko of Goldman Sachs.
Gregory Chwatko - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks so much for the question. Maybe just following up on the credit questions. In terms of use of cash, or of the prospect of paying down some of the high coupon debt given the recent upgrade – I know you've done that previously. How are you thinking about your maturities and, in particular, the potential for enacting another tender for some of the higher coupon debt?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, thanks for your question. Here's the way we think about it. We feel very comfortable where we're at. We always monitor market conditions and try to take advantage of market conditions. So I'm not going to commit to any future actions one way or the other, but that's the way we think about it. We are comfortable where we're at, but we do monitor the market conditions.
Gregory Chwatko - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Good morning, guys.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Nik.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
A couple questions. The extra selling day, any way you can just give us the impact it had on volume et cetera? And then the other two question is L&M, just curious, it looks it picked up some market share. Just curious if there was any discrete initiatives going on that's driving that. And then the last question for you, Marty, is Mitch Zeller was speaking at a conference recently. Looked like he made some pretty constructive comments regarding relative risk and risk continuum. And just wanted to get your reaction and thoughts on that now that he's being a lot more vocal about the positioning of the FDA on that.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Thanks for those, Nik. Look, we did have an extra shipping day for PM USA, so it obviously flattered the volume a little bit. We have one fewer in the fourth quarter. So, on the yearly basis, which is how we think about it, it will wash itself out. On L&M, I would say that it's doing exactly what we want it to do. We want to have L&M participate in the declining discount segment. That industry segment continues to decline as the premium effect in the category obtains. But L&M is doing a very good job there, but we don't want to grow the discount category. And L&M is doing exactly that. I read with interest and listened to the reports about Director Zeller. I've seen his presentation. We continue to be encouraged and optimistic that the FDA will adopt the continuum of risk with respect to products. It's the right thing for consumers. I think it's the right public policy, and it should promote innovation. This is a category in which the FDA, in our opinion, should be promoting innovation to bring new products to smokers in particular. And I thought it was great that Director Zeller went out and shared his views at the conference.
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thanks, Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling, Nik.
Operator:
Media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. Thank you. At this time I'd like to turn the call back over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs for any closing remarks.
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, everyone, for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at investor relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sarah Knakmuhs - VP, IR Marty Barrington - Chairman, President and CEO Billy Gifford - CFO
Analysts:
Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs Matthew Grainger - Morgan Stanley Owen Bennett - Nomura Michael Lavery - CLSA Chris Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus Steven Marascia - Capitol Securities Management DeAndre Parks - Western Asset Nikhil Nichani - RBC Capital Markets Vivien Azer - Cowen & Company Chuck Maguy - Wall Street Journal
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group’s 2015 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions, following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Sarah Knakmuhs:
Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO to discuss Altria's 2015 fourth quarter and full year business results. Earlier today, we issued a Press Release regarding these results. For detailed review, please see the earnings release on our Web site at altria.com or through the Altria investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2014. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with the U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which excludes items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release, which is available on our Web site and via the Altria investor app. Now I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks, Sarah and good morning, everyone. Altria had yet another year of excellent business results and outstanding shareholder returns in 2015. We continue to deliver against our two long-term financial goals. First, Altria grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by nearly 9% in line with our long-term growth objective. Second, Altria paid nearly $4.2 billion in dividends to our shareholders, consistent with our goal of paying out approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS. Also during the year we raised our dividend per share by 8.7%, aligned with our goal to raise the dividend in line with adjusted diluted EPS growth. This was the 49th time we have raised the dividend in the last 46 years. We also completed our $1 billion share repurchase program and announced a new $1 billion program that we expect to complete by the end of 2016. In Altria, SABMiller’s largest shareholder supported the approximately $107 billion business combination between Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller which will create the first truly global beer company. We strongly believe that the deal is in the best interest of our shareholders, offering a significant premium on our very larger beer investment and continued participation in the global beer profit pool on attractive terms. The size of the premium we capture will ultimately depend on final closing prices, exchange rates and any proration that might occur, but as an example, as of the date of the agreement in November the terms of the partial share alternative represented an approximate 43% premium to SABMiller’s share price on September 14, 2015. For 2015, Altria delivered a total shareholder return of more than 23%, significantly outperforming both the S&P 500 and the Food Beverage and Tobacco index, and as a reminder our total shareholder returned was 29% in 2013 and 35% in 2014. So let's turn to the businesses that supported those results. Our core tobacco companies delivered on their objectives by growing income and strengthening their market leadership positions. The smokeable product segment had a very strong 2015 with double-digit income growth and Marlboro's fourth consecutive year of modest retail share growth in line with its strategy. Adjusted OCI grew nearly 11%, driven primarily by higher pricing, volume growth and the benefit of the federal tobacco quota buyout expiration. Fourth quarter adjusted OCI growth was more modest due primarily to trade inventory movements and lapping the end of the quota buyout payments. The segment also expanded adjusted OCI margins in both periods with full year margins of more than 46%. Marlboro strengthened in 2015, gaining two-tenths of retail share in both the fourth quarter and the full year. In November PM USA expanded distribution of Marlboro Midnight menthol nationally, offering adult menthol smokers a bold unique menthol flavor. Voluntarily, we expect Marlboro Midnight menthol to build on the very positive momentum we've seen from the Marlboro Black Family, which now has grown for 20 consecutive quarters. Higher cigar shipment volume contributed to the smokeable segment’s performance in both periods. Middleton grew Black & Milds volume by over 5% in the quarter and nearly 4% for the year, continuing to build on the brand’s strength in a more profitable kicked segment. In our smokeless product segment, USSTC once again delivered on its strategy to increase income by growing volume and maintain modest share momentum on Copenhagen and Skoal combined. Adjusted OCI grew more than 8% in the fourth quarter and nearly 5% for the full year. For the full year higher pricing more than offset higher promotional spending and cost. Copenhagen and Skoal increased their combined retail share by three-tenths for the year. We are pleased with Copenhagen's continued strength which grew nearly a full share point in 2015. Last year Copenhagen was the fastest growing smokeless brand in the category. And to build on the strength, USSTC is planning to expand Copenhagen Mint nationally later this quarter. Copenhagen Mint will be available at a popular price and USSTC will support its expansion with a strong awareness and trial generating plan. In innovative tobacco products, Nu Mark continued building a portfolio of tobacco products using its strong internal capabilities and its partnership with Philip Morris International. In November, based on encouraging results from lead markets, Nu Mark continued its disciplined expansion of Mark 10 XL e-vapor products to additional select retail chains. With respect to heat-not-burn products, we continue to support PMI as it prepares for a 2016 product application to the FDA for a modified risk tobacco product designation and we look forward to discussing more about our plans for U.S. commercialization at the appropriate time. The wine business continued to perform well. Ste. Michelle grew OCI almost 4% in the fourth quarter and more than 13% for the year. Ste. Michelle's premium wines continued to be recognized as leaders in the industry, garnering more than 250 90 plus ratings in 2015, up nearly 40% from last year. So 2015 was an excellent year for our premium brands, our company and our shareholders. Turning to 2016 and beyond, Altria is implementing a productivity initiative designed to maintain its operating company's leadership and cost competitiveness, this initiative is expected to deliver approximately $300 million in annual productivity savings by the end of 2017, and as a result of reinvesting some of those savings strengthen our business capability. The savings will come from reduced spending on certain SG&A infrastructure and a leaner organization. Some of the productivity savings will be invested in important initiatives such as brand building, harm reduction and regulatory capabilities. Continually challenging our cost structure and investing in the future remain important for us as we focus on delivering strong results for the long-term. As to guidance, in 2016 Altria expects to deliver full year adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $3 to $3.05 representing growth of 7% to 9% from our 2015 adjusted diluted EPS base of $2.80. This guidance does not include any impact from the proposed AB InBev and SABMiller business combination as the transaction remains subject to certain approvals and the closing date has not yet been determined. And now I will turn things over to Billy for more detail on our performance.
Billy Gifford:
Thanks, Marty and good morning, everyone. I'll start with the smokeable product segment. The smokeable product segment increased adjusted OCI margins by eight-tenths of a percentage of point in the fourth quarter to 44.7% due primarily to higher pricing. For the full year, adjusted OCI margins in the segment expanded 2.3 points to 46.4% as higher pricing and the exploration of the federal tobacco quota buy-out payments more than offset high promotional spending and higher cost. PM USA's reported cigarette shipment volume in the fourth quarter declined about 2.5% as elevated trade inventory levels at the end of the third quarter moderated in the fourth quarter. For the full year PM USA's reported cigarette shipment volume increased 0.5%. When adjusted for trade inventory changes and other factors, PM USA estimates its shipment volume increased 0.5% in both the fourth and for the full year. PM USA estimates the total industry cigarette volume was essentially unchanged in the fourth and decreased by 0.5% for the full year. In addition to retail share gains of Marlboro L&M and the discount gained share allowing PM USA's total retail share to reach 51.4% in the quarter and 51.3% for 2013. In the smokeless product segment, fourth quarter adjusted OCI margins expanded 1.4 percentage points to 61.4% driven by higher pricing, partially offset by higher promotional investments. For the year adjusted OCI margins expanded three-tenths of a percentage point to 63.7% as higher pricing more than offset higher promotional investments and higher cost. The smokeless segment’s reported shipments increased 4% in the fourth quarter and 2.5% for 2015. After adjusting for trade inventory movements and other factors USSTC estimates that its volume grew 3% in the fourth quarter and 2.5% for the full year, while estimated smokeless industry volume grew 2.5% for the past six months. For both time periods Copenhagen volume growth was partially offset by declines for Skoal and other brands. In wine OCI margin narrowed by eight-tenths of a percentage point to 24.8% in the fourth quarter but expanded by 1.2 percentage points to 22.8% for the year. Reported shipment volumes grew 5.9% in the fourth quarter and 6.2% for the year. Altria recorded -- reported equity earnings from our SABMiller investment of $211 million in the fourth quarter and $757 million for the year. Unfavorable foreign currency and special items were the primary drivers of the full year 2015 decline. In addition to the EPS guidance Marty provided for next year, we expect that full year 2016 effective tax rate from operations to be 35.3%. Additionally, we forecast capital expenditures to be in the range of $140 million to $180 million. That wraps up our results. Marty and I will now take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll direct your attention to altria.com. Along with today's earnings release, for your reference we have posted a list of quarterly metrics including pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie Herzog:
My first question is regarding your cost savings program, I guess it was a -- give us a little more color on what some of the productivity initiatives are that you're going to be implementing? And then what portion of the $300 million annualized savings will be reinvested and how much if any could flow to the bottom-line? And then do you expect to realize any savings this year?
Marty Barrington:
Let me make a comment about that and then I'll ask Billy perhaps to comment on the detail, I think the great detail we're going to provide on the topic is in the release body as you can appreciate. I think we've laid out there the areas that we're going to work on and certainly dimensionalize the amount of the productivity savings that we expect to gain but for competitive reasons I don't want to lay out in any greater detail where and what we're going to do with it. We do reference the fact that we have important issues that we're investing in for our growth as you know we're investing in reduced harm products, that requires regulatory capability and we always invest in our brands. So, I think that's the way to understand it and as the year flows through I think you'll see more -- Billy do you want to comment about timing?
Billy Gifford:
Yes I think the only thing I would add to that Bonnie is that we have incorporated those savings that we expect in this year into our guidance that we provided earlier.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. So there is and you just spelled out that the 300 million would be reached by FY17, so I wanted to clarify that there's going to be some that you'll realize this year.
Billy Gifford:
Okay.
Bonnie Herzog:
Second question is on menthol, I guess I was hoping you could give us a sense of how the menthol category performed in the quarter and specifically how Marlboro menthol performed?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, the menthol segment continues to grow moderately as you know and we continue to grow our share of the menthol segment where we're under indexed and have opportunity. So, we're pretty pleased with our menthol performance.
Bonnie Herzog:
So, overall Marlboro menthol is taking share or just like you said where it’s under indexed possibly in certain regions?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, what I said is that the segment continues to grow modestly and that we continue to grow our share of it and obviously Marlboro is a key way that we do that.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay. And then Marty, if I may just my final question is on…
Marty Barrington:
Sure…
Bonnie Herzog:
…total tobacco consumption for the industry last year given the strong industry cigarette volume and then the decelerating smokeless volume, do you have a sense of the underlying total tobacco consumption when considering both of these categories, I guess for last year and then how sustainable do you think the strong underlying cigarette volume trends are, what are your expectations for industry cigarette volumes in 2016?
Marty Barrington:
Yes I am familiar with the number for total tobacco volume, I think for the last government figures I've seen, but I haven't seen them yet for 2015, so I don’t want to hazard guess on that although obviously we know that the cigarette volume flattened because of the effects that we talked about in 2015. In terms of cigarette volume, the long-term trends 3 to 5 long-term trends tend to persist over the long-term, we know that ’15 was a little bit different for a variety of factors. I think the question for ’16 Bonnie is, if you expect it to revert back to historical levels, at what pace? We continue to see a stronger adult tobacco consumer right now, so we'll have to see what that pace is. But I think overtime, you would expect for it to return to long-term trend.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay so, if I am hearing you correctly 2016 maybe above historical trends, but as the year progresses and maybe as we lookout in the future would return to that minus 3, minus 4 decline rate?
Marty Barrington:
What I mean to say is that I think the long-term trends tend to revert to the main. The long-term trend has been 3 to 4. The pace at which it returns to 3 to 4 in ’16 and beyond, I think is just hard to estimate because of the anomaly of the 2015 factors.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong:
Just following up on Bonnie's question a little bit, just in terms of as you think about all the positive macro drivers that helped the industry broadly in 2015, I just wanted to get your color just in terms of what do you think and how do you think those macro drivers will play out in 2016 and the industry fundamentals compared to really 2015?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, that's good question because I think you do have to distinguish the year-over-year effect from what the status of the consumer is. We go into the year believing as a whole that the adult tobacco consumer continues to feel better going into ’16 as they did in ’15. Obviously unemployment is down, housing starts are up. The effective gasoline prices we see improved adult tobacco consumer confidence. Now of course that effect was felt in ’15 and we doubt that we're going to see the same effect as year-over-year to ’16 but I think it's good news I think that we think that the adult tobacco consumer goes into 2016 with those positive feelings, there's always changes that could happen in the macro-environment, you see speculation in some quarters about recession clouds looming that obviously would change everything, but we went into the year feeling pretty about the adult tobacco consumer.
Judy Hong:
Okay. And then Marty just on the pricing environment obviously that's been another positive trend at the manufacturer level where we've seen a pretty healthy price increases in the past few quarters. If I look at the price gap versus discount brands, it's still at one of the lowest levels in history, so wanted to just get your perspective on kind of more pricing upside opportunity particularly as the adult tobacco consumers are in a relatively healthy shape?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, I mean, our desire as you know is to continue grow income in that segment while maintaining modest share momentum on Marlboro. If you look at the net pricing for the year Judy it's almost 5% which is at the higher end of the historical range. I had occasion to go back and look at the four year average, it's about four in the quarter, and so that works. We are always mindful of the price gap and there is competition in the industry. So with that kind of net pricing realization and attention to cost management, growing some share and the diverse business platform we have, we think that's kind of the Altria story and we like the way that's been played out over the last several years where you've seen really consistent EPS growth at about 8% through thick and thin and we think that's the model that we should stick with.
Judy Hong:
Okay. And just my last question is on the STC obviously we've seen a little bit of a pick in the second half, so your outlook for 2016 in terms of the STC environment?
Marty Barrington:
We are always cautious at the beginning of the year. We saw more activity actually last year didn’t? We than we had seen in the last previous years, we took eight I think memory serves we took eight STC increases last year. So there are always puts and takes with them we know that there are going to be lots of proposals, we have a very talented government affairs team which tries to advocate on behalf of our consumers. So we'll have to see as we go into the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger of Morgan Stanley.
Matthew Grainger:
Marty, I wanted to ask a follow-up question on the productivity initiative, in the past when you have had similar programs usually it's been in response to factor like the STC increase that necessitated rightsizing the Company to account for I guess a lower level of volumes and volume trends have obviously been very stable recently, so I guess what precipitated the decision to implement a cost savings program today as opposed to just incorporating some normal course charges into the P&L?
Marty Barrington:
The charges are to grow our business for the long-term and to reallocate our resources against growth initiatives. I think that you always have to be mindful of costs overtime, if you have opportunities to improve in your infrastructure or to improve your organization and to invest those savings in your brands or in your products for the future or in the way you can go to the market you should do that and I think it's one of the reasons Matt, that Altria has been successful over decades and while these programs are never easy to accomplish that's how you grow overtime and when you see Altria's growth overtime it is because we do these programs often from strength and that is the case today, our business is strong but we believe we should invest in several of these initiatives now and after this.
Matthew Grainger:
And then just one additional question just on the smokeable segment margins, you addressed this to some extent, they were up here in the fourth quarter but less so than we saw in the first nine months and you called out the lapping of the quota buy-out but just curious whether there were any other specific areas of the business where you felt there was an opportunity to specifically reinvest here in the fourth quarter?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Matt I'll take that because it is -- thanks for the question. I think when you look at margins in the smokeable category, you really have to think about there were two kind of primary factors, one we've talked about on a regular basis and that was the pension remember we've dated the mortality table at the end of last year and that gave us a bit of a drag on the expense side of that as we went through the year so that was still present. From an equity standpoint you saw us investing, we showed some of that at Investor Day around some of the digital innovations, some of the mobile couponing efforts that we have underway, those would be the primary factors that I would point out.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Nomura.
Owen Bennett:
Just one question I just wanted to know have you seen any real significant change in the competitive dynamics over the last quarter and obviously we have gone old time looking to place some of the new construction out and then imperial obviously not in the marketplace in a larger scale, but just wondering if any of those competitive dynamics have changed significantly? Thank you.
Marty Barrington:
I think the answer is nothing that we haven't contemplated. The brands have some new owners and owners talked about their plans about what to do with the brands at retail we fully contemplated that but we haven't seen anything that I'd call out as significant or material.
Operator:
You next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of CLSA.
Michael Lavery:
Just wanted to see if you could give a couple of clarifications on the cost savings, two in particular one you called out the 90 million in savings on the pension and that's completely unrelated to the productivity initiative is that correct?
Marty Barrington:
Yes it is correct Michael.
Michael Lavery:
And then just second, a little bit of a follow-up on Bonnie's question, I realized there is competitive sensitivity and so nothing obviously too detailed but just compared to the program from about three or four years ago your -- I guess a little question on finance, you've referred to that as a cost savings program I think, I hear using the word productivity which sounds a little more like ordinary type efforts, is there any difference in terms of very broadly how you think about these two initiatives or is it just a revisit of ordinary -- things that you can do periodically to update your cost base and words and semantics aren’t meaningful, how should we think about from just at a very high level this versus the last program?
Marty Barrington:
Well I think the way to think about it is you constantly want to look at your resources you want to make sure that they're allocated to the best possible way, if you can find productivity to invest in your growth areas while becoming more efficient in other areas you should do that for the long-term health of the business. That's how we think about productivity and we do it all the time but from time-to-time we have opportunities to take bigger steps and we're going to be implementing this productivity initiative over 2016 and 2017 so that we can invest in some of these important initiatives that we've identified in the release.
Michael Lavery:
And then just one more looking at the vapor business in some of your investments there, obviously that category has slowed pretty considerably, but how do you think about the level of investment that's appropriate there going forward?
Marty Barrington:
With discipline, I think you have to -- you really do, I mean you have to be disciplined about it, the category is a very interesting emerging category, we know that there is consumer interest, so you want to have products there, and you want to be investing and you want to be learning, but you always want to do that with discipline because we're trying to do it within the guidance that we're trying to provide about how we're growing all of our businesses long-term and I think we've done a better job with that, with MarkTen recently and especially with MarkTen XL, it's a better product Michael, it's been very well received by the consumer. We're getting good results in our lead markets and so we're rolling out on and expanding with discipline and trying to spend appropriately but not overspending.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Chris Growe:
I just had a question if I could on just to understand the trade inventory movements, we knew those were coming, they were a little larger than I expected and just to get a sense of how you exit the year and where inventory levels are? I guess then related to that with volume being so strong throughout 2015 inventory levels as we exit the year, I'd be surprised if they were lower is there any reason why those need to be up a little bit where they are even versus the prior year given the strengthened volume throughout the year?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, good question, listen they go up and they go down for us but they usually washout over the year as you know and I think that's what happened in ’15. When we look at wholesale inventory we really don't see anything remarkable in comparing yearend ’15, against yearend ’14. As a matter of fact, if you refer I think Chris to the sheet that we provide, you see the numbers that about spot on. You did see some depletion during the fourth quarter which we predicated, I think in the third quarter call. But honestly I think as we go into 2016, we just don't see anything remarkable and as I mentioned earlier, we will have to see how the volume plays out throughout the year.
Chris Growe:
And then I just wanted to understand and I don’t know you have given this yet I didn’t hear it, but just the contribution to profitability from SAB in 2016 from that and I know assuming it will soon -- it doesn’t change and the ABI deal doesn’t occur, we know there is a currency drag so just trying to get a sense of do you expect it to be a contributor to profitability in the year?
Billy Gifford:
Hi Chris, this is Billy. Thanks for the question. When you think about SAB it's always a contributor to profitability, right. We have earnings that flow though to them. As far as whether it's going to be larger or smaller than last year, we don’t go to that level of detail, know that from a currency standpoint, we looked at how currency impacted us in ’15. We incorporate that in to our guidance for ’16, so we feel comfortable with what we have in and so yes, it will be a contributor to profitability.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Marascia of Capitol Securities Management.
Steven Marascia:
A couple of quick questions, number one, have you retail chains given you any kind of idea whether the expected e-cig sales growth has been going according to expectations or have you had to adjust your expectation levels? And secondly if you could, I forgot what the schedule was but when you guys expect the feds will call out some type of new regulations on the e-cig market?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, let me take the second one first. Thanks for those. As you know FDA has been working on a steaming regulations it's our understanding that they over at OMB and that the process is now is now between OMB and FDA. And they have not said when they expect to announce, they had said that they expected it to be in 2015, but of course we're now in ’16 and that hasn't happened. So I am afraid, I can't give you much more color than that, the process is a little opaque. I want to make sure I understand the question you had about retail, if you're asking about our product MarkTen XL and our lead markets, our retailers are very excited about that product, it's been selling very well and it's got a good response. I couldn't quite tell if that's what you're asking about or if you're asking something more general.
Steven Marascia:
No, more general in terms of the overall e-cig market?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, it slowed a little bit. It had very mediocre as a category growth when it first came out, it was up over 100% year-over-year and then 50% the year after that and then the last year we estimated the category growth in dollar sales was about 25%, but a lot of that was in the first half as it slowed in the second. So the category growth has slowed down, but it still remains interesting to adult tobacco consumers and interesting enough for us to want to compete there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of DeAndre Parks of Western Asset.
DeAndre Parks:
Could you give us some color on it relates to some of your high coupon debt, what your thought process is behind and how you look at that, I know you guys actually tendered for some back in the past and especially given the effect that there may be some gains, how do you look at that process, what do you do and do not?
Marty Barrington:
Sure, thanks for the question. Look we're always assessing both marketplace conditions and where we stand from a overall capital position within that company. We feel very comfortable with where we're at, but we're always assessed the marketplace for opportunities to take advantage of and to your point we took advance of some of that in the beginning of the year with a debt tender that we did in the first quarter of ’15. So we assess it overall what are the cash needs of the business and what are the marketplace conditions when we make those decisions.
Operator:
We will now open the call for questions from the media. [Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.
Nikhil Nichani:
Hi this is actually Nikhil Nichani on Nik Modi’s behalf. Just one quick question, if the ABI SAB deal got close and you guys do get some incremental benefits from that deal, how are you thinking about that in terms of letting that drop to the bottom-line or reinvesting into the business, and if you do chose to invest some of those what would be the priorities? Thank you.
Marty Barrington:
Well, I can appreciate the question, but you can appreciate that I can't tell you that right now. We don’t even have the closing date for the transaction. We're not sure when it's going to close. And so you just forgive me, I don’t want to get ahead of those parties’ transaction by speculating about the benefit to us. As you know we think is a very attractive transaction and we think that the combined company is going to be a terrific company and we're really pleased to be able to participate in the company going forward but I don't want to get into any more detail with that at this time if you will allow me. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen & Company.
Vivien Azer:
So, I know you don’t like to talk about Marlboro's sub families in a great amount of detail but Marty given the significant transformation that has gone on with Marlboro in particular with the introduction of Black, could -- is it at all possible at least to kind of dimensionlize kind of the sizing of the different brands in ways as they contribute to total Marlboro?
Marty Barrington:
No, I guess it's certainly -- first I know you try on this but it's just competitively sensitive about how we do this and I think what's more, I don't mean to be cavalier like that I just mean that what we really want to look at is the overall dimensions of Marlboro, how is it doing across all of the families, how is it doing from a total equity point of view, how is it doing in terms of the price gap it can command and so forth and so on. And I know you know all that so I won't repeat it. Marlboro is doing exactly what we want it to do and if you look at Marlboro Black it has just added a whole new dimension for example to the brand, it's staying relevant to the current cohort of adult tobacco consumers, it commenced nice price premiums, so Marlboro's great but we're just not going to break it out at that level, I hope you'll indulge me on that.
Vivien Azer:
I can’t blame you for trying but I absolutely appreciate that, no problem. And from a regulatory standpoint, it seems like we've seen a bit of an uptick in terms activity around raising the minimum purchase age for tobacco products, do you -- at 21 and some with success like Hawaii, some not, New Jersey, I was hoping you could comment kind of high level on how you see that type of regulatory activity evolving?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, I can our position to begin with is of course there should be minimum-age laws and we were the company and went around and led the effort on that to make sure that there were minimum-age laws in place everywhere and that they were vigorously in forced and we spent an awful lot of time and energy and resources on that which is completely appropriate and we support that. We support a minimum age of 18 and if you look at the reference points, the overwhelming majority of the states use 18. The Master Settlement Agreement from the 1990s used 18 and when we passed the FDA bill it was 18 and further the FDA bill contemplated a process to study whether the age should be raised and they gave that pass to FDA, FDA is now doing that and our view on that is they should let FDA do that job and send a report over to Congress and then we could have an intelligent debate about whether the age should be raised or not, but this sort of ad-hoc approach of locality here or state there doesn't seem to make good public policy sense to us. So, we believe in 18 and we also support the process that was in place from the statute to study issue.
Vivien Azer:
But my last question on, just any comments on Green Smoke after the tests in 2015?
Marty Barrington:
They're encouraging, we really I think have improved the Green Smoke platform, we have it in a number of retail stores as you know, it's been very well received, it continues to be the leader in the e-commerce space and so we're working on that brand portfolio strategy now but we're glad to have Green Smoke in the portfolio and obviously the company has helped us from a supply chain point of view immensely.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Chuck Maguy of Wall Street Journal.
Chuck Maguy:
Hi Marty, I know you declined to provide some clarity on the productivity initiative earlier when Bonnie asked about it, but looking at that term leaner organizational structure, could you interpret it as layoffs what do you mean by that and will there be layoffs, if so how many jobs would be eliminated?
Marty Barrington:
Let me begin by saying thanks for calling in by saying that we're going to speak with our organization later this morning and I hope you could appreciate that I want to speak to our organization about our plans there before I do in a public venue. So, you've to indulge me a bit on that, but yes we intend to have a leaner organization, what lean typically means, it means in this case is we want to have an organization that has fewer layers and we have broader spans of control in our managerial ranks and if we can work towards those ends and we can then reinvest those savings in our growth initiatives we should do that, it may be that we can give you more information later in the day, after I've spoken to the organization but I don't want to get ahead of it on the call.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs for closing comments.
Sarah Knakmuhs:
Thank you, everyone for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President, Investor Relations Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC Owen M. Bennett - Nomura International Plc Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Todd Duvick - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2015 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President, Investor Relations:
Thank you. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO to discuss Altria's 2015 third quarter and nine month business result. Earlier today, we issued a press release regarding these results. For a detailed review, please see the earnings release on our website at altria.com or through the Altria investor app. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2014. Our remarks contain certain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its results in accordance with the U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which excludes items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release, which is available on our website and via the Altria investor app. Now I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Sarah. Good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report yet another strong quarter for Altria Group. We delivered outstanding performance in the third quarter and for the first 9 months of 2015. We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share 8.7% in the quarter and 11.5% for the year-to-date. Each of our reporting segments has contributed to our strong earnings performance, especially the smokeable product segment led by the terrific Marlboro brand. So, let's begin there. The smokeable product segment grew adjusted operating company's income more than 11% in the third quarter and over 13% for the first 9 months. For the year-to-date, solid net price realization, the benefit from the end of the federal tobacco quota buyout payments and higher volume continue to support double-digit adjusted OCI growth and good margin expansion. The industry continued to benefit from near-term moderation in cigarette volume declines, which combined with PM USA share gains, resulted in strong volume results for PM USA. Reported cigarette shipment volume for the quarter was up one-tenth of a percent. After adjusting for trade inventory changes and other factors, PM USA estimates that its cigarette volume was unchanged in the third quarter. For the year-to-date, reported cigarette shipment volume grew 1.5%, and PM USA estimates that its adjusted cigarette volume increased approximately five-tenths of a percent versus the year-ago period. In line with strategy, Marlboro gained one-tenth of retail share in the third quarter and two-tenths for the year-to-date. So our investments in the Marlboro architecture continue to pay off, and by all key measures – OCI, margin, price realization, volume and share – our smokeable segment is performing very well. Turning to the smokeless product segment, USSTC delivered income growth and combined retail share growth on Copenhagen and Skoal. The smokeless product segment grew adjusted OCI 2.5% in the third quarter and almost 4% for the first nine months, primarily through higher pricing, partially offset by higher promotional investments and SG&A expenses. The iconic Copenhagen brand remained the fastest-growing brand in the category with eight-tenths of retail share growth for the first nine months of 2015. And thanks to investments in Skoal's equity and overall value equation, the brand's retail share declines continued to moderate. Our objective remains to seek combined share momentum on these two brands in this competitive category. The wine business continued its strong performance. Ste. Michelle grew OCI almost 13% in the third quarter and nearly 20% for the year to-date, primarily through increased volume and improved premium mix. In innovative tobacco products, Nu Mark continues pursuing disciplined innovation in e-vapor. We've seen encouraging trial on MarkTen XL, allowing us to expand our lead market presence. Nu Mark also continues its in-store evaluation of Green Smoke's retail positioning. We focused first on getting the product right, and we're learning a great deal about the adult tobacco consumer response. We are optimistic about these brands as we move forward. And of course, Altria continued to return cash to shareholders. We paid approximately $3 billion in dividends in the first nine months of 2015. Additionally we raised our quarterly dividend by 8.7% in August to an annualized rate of $2.26 per share, marking our 49th dividend increase in 46 years. We remain focused on our target dividend payout ratio of 80% of adjusted diluted EPS. So our year-to-date results have been very strong and we are happy with our progress against our full-year plans. Thus, we reaffirm that we expect to deliver adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $2.76 to $2.81, representing growth of 7.5% to 9.5% from our 2014 adjusted diluted EPS base of $2.57. This guidance reflects expected moderated EPS results in the fourth quarter as compared to last year due to several factors we've discussed previously, including lapping the benefit from the expiration of federal tobacco quota buyout payments, lapping some of the effects of a stronger economy and lower gasoline prices and a higher effective tax rate on operations. Additionally, trade inventories for cigarettes may moderate going forward and unfavorable foreign currency translation could affect prior-year comparisons of earnings from Altria's equity investment in SABMiller. Finally, let us provide you with a word on the proposed AB InBev combination with SABMiller. We know there is a great deal of interest in this transaction and we look forward to providing the details for us at the appropriate time. But as I hope you can appreciate, we have to wait until final terms have been reached before doing so. But until then, here's a brief update and some background on this transaction. Earlier this month, AB InBev and SABMiller announced an agreement in principle on key terms regarding a possible transaction between the two companies. Yesterday, AB InBev and SABMiller jointly announced that the U.K. takeover panel has extended the relevant deadline until November 4, 2015. We are pleased to see this transaction moving forward and that the parties are reporting progress has been made, including AB InBev's completion of confirmatory due diligence of SABMiller, reconfirming the financial and other terms of the possible offer, and confirming the availability of financing facilities. The extension gives AB InBev and SABMiller additional time to finalize the details necessary for AB InBev to announce a firm intention to make an offer for SABMiller. As you know, Altria has been a shareholder of SABMiller since 2002. Indeed its largest shareholder. The SABMiller stake has provided us with access to the global brewing profit pool, diversified our business, contributed nicely to our long-term earnings growth and strengthened our balance sheet. Of course, the approach we have always taken is to manage that asset for the best interest of Altria's shareholders. We believe that combining the largely complementary businesses of SAB and AB InBev to create the world's largest brewer is a compelling opportunity. So we are excited about the proposed transaction and are working constructively with the parties to complete the transaction. And with that I'll turn things over to Billy.
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. As Marty mentioned, stronger volume in the smokeable product segment helped deliver adjusted OCI growth for the first nine months. When adjusted for trade inventory changes and other factors, PM USA estimates that industry cigarette volume was down 1% in the third quarter, and five tenths of a percent for the first nine months. In addition to retail share gains on Marlboro, L&M also gained share allowing PM USA's total retail share to hit 51.3% for both the quarter and first nine months. This represents an increase of four tenths of retail sharepoint and half a retail sharepoint respectively from the year-ago periods. Cigar volume growth also contributed to the smokeable product segment's results. Middleton's reported shipment volume increased just over 1% in the third quarter and nearly 4% for the first nine months. And contributions from Black and Mild Jazz and Casino, helped Black and Mild grow its leading position in the high margin cigar segment. In fact, Black and Mild Casino was recently recognized by CSP magazine as the 2015 retailer's choice best new product in the cigar category. In total, the smokeable product segment increases adjusted OCI margins by 2.7 points in the third quarter to 47%. For the year-to-date, adjusted OCI margins in the smokeable product segment expanded 2.8 points. In the smokeless product segment, USSTC reported shipments increased approximately 1% in the third quarter and 2% for the first nine months. We estimate that smokeless industry volume has grown approximately 2.5% over the past six months. In both the third quarter and for the first nine months, Copenhagen and Skoal grew their retail share on a combined basis. In the third quarter, higher pricing was partially offset by higher promotional investments and SG&A expenses resulting in adjusted OCI margins contracting 1.1 percentage points to 63.8%. For the year-to-date, adjusted OCI margins narrowed one tenth of a percentage point to 64.5%. In the wine segment, reported shipment volumes have remained robust growing at nearly 9% in the third quarter and over 6% for the first 9 months. OCI margins expanded eight tenths of a percentage point to 21.7% in the third quarter and over two points to 21.7% for the year-to-date. Additionally, Altria reported equity earnings from our SABMiller investment of $187 million in the third quarter, and $546 million for the year-to-date. And finally, you'll remember we completed our $1 billion share repurchase program early in the third quarter, and that our board authorized a new $1 billion program which we expect to complete by the end of 2016. That wraps up our results. Marty and I will now take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll direct your attention to Altria.com. Along with today's earnings release, for your reference we posted a list of quarterly metrics to include pricing, inventory and other items. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning, everyone.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I have a two-part question on Marlboro. First, could you talk a little bit more about your new Marlboro line extension, Marlboro Midnight, and then how that brand will be positioned relative to the rest of the Marlboro portfolio? And then second, I'd be curious to hear more about your Marlboro app and your goals for this new technology?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for those questions. I think they both represent good examples of how Marlboro is innovating at the core of our business. We talk about innovation in the innovative product side, but it's important to remember that innovation is everywhere and boy, at Marlboro you see it all the time. So Marlboro Midnight is the latest innovation under the architecture; it will come out in the Black family. It is a unique and a bold menthol for Marlboro and should help Marlboro participate in the growing menthol category, has a very differentiated and unique pack. It's going to be supported with beautiful POS to raise awareness among adult smokers. And we'll position it as a new and exciting product in the Marlboro family, particularly for menthol smokers. So we are excited about Midnight, and I think it is off to a good start. I think it's going to hit wholesale, if I recall Bonnie, in mid-November and it'll be retail a couple of weeks after that. So you will be seeing it there. And on the digital side, we continue to see strong innovation as well. We now have mobile couponing, as you know, that coupons can be delivered to adult smokers' smartphones. It's a tremendous step forward in terms of efficiency and meeting adult smokers where they are. That is now available nationally, and we have launched a Marlboro app. It's available on the two large app platforms, it's responsibly done, age-verified. And it will be a place for the brand to connect again with adult smokers in a very innovative way in the digital space. So we are excited about both those innovations.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
No, that makes a lot of sense. And then just to clarify on the app, I mean, is the goal there to increase customer engagement? And then could we also see more efficient promos and maybe a reduction in expenses because of this app rollout?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All of the above. What we are trying to do is connect the brand to its adult smokers, and the app obviously gives us another way of doing that in addition to all of the other marketing tools that the Marlboro team is doing such a good job with.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. And then I have a question on your smokeless business. You generated higher pricing in the business and then Copenhagen volume was strong, but margins were down a bit. So could you talk about some of the dynamics at play here, and then how sustainable this better pricing is with share gains for Copenhagen? And then Skoal still seems to be quite weak and underperforming, so any updated plans to turn this around?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Let me mention one or two things and then I'll ask Billy to maybe comment on the cost side. Actually, we are pretty spot-on strategy in the smokeless business, I would say. You know, our strategy there is to grow our income by growing volume in line or better, if we can, with the category, and of course the category volume has picked back up again we estimate about 2.5%. And actually you see Copenhagen and Skoal combined doing a little bit better than that at about 2.9%. Copenhagen is growing, you're right, and Skoal doesn't grow share. But I would point out that I think we've begun to moderate the share. If you look at it sequentially, it's at 19.8 share points, I think, if you look at the year-to-date number, Bonnie. And boy, I'll tell you, we're glad to have 20 share points of Skoal business in this category that has 65% operating margins. So, Skoal can always work harder. It's got to compete with both Copenhagen and its principle competitor. But we are pretty pleased. I think they are having a solid performance over there, and maybe Billy can comment on your cost question.
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Sure, Bonnie. When you look at it, if you look at it on a year-to-date basis, you can see margins are basically flat, as Marty mentioned, right around the 65% margin base. When you look at a quarter-to-quarter comparison or a shorter period of time, you can see fluctuations based on the timing of expenses flowing through. So again, I think if you look at it on a year-to-date, the margins are very high compared to other consumer products categories and virtually flat.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you, everyone.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling in, Bonnie.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with CLSA.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Michael, good morning.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Could you just talk about your market share momentum a little bit? You're still getting the modest momentum on Marlboro but also a very strong lift from discount. Just how do you prioritize that or balance that? Obviously you don't want to turn away discount share, but certainly your focus has always been on Marlboro. So, what are some of the priorities there and have you seen any sort of changes? This is the first full quarter since the competitor's transaction closed. Are you seeing any different competitive landscape? Obviously it looks like L&M is still going quite strong.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, sure, good questions. We have not seen any changes, to take the last part first. We do want to modestly keep momentum on Marlboro. You've heard us say this before, Michael, call it a tenth or two-tenths maybe a year, and you can see that year-to-date that is exactly where we are in Marlboro. Our focus is on premium, 90% of those shipments for PM USA are premium. But L&M has a role to play, and what it does is it competes nicely in the discount space without growing it. The industry as a whole is moving more towards premium and so what you see is that L&M is basically consolidating share out of the other discount players, so it works spot-on strategy for PM USA. That's been the strategy and that's how we are still thinking about it.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up on Bonnie's question about Midnight. Could you just maybe give a sense of magnitude or how maybe it compares to something like Rich Blue, which was another new extension in the menthol segment but seems to have been a little more limited in scale? Does this have any -- I think Rich Blue had a geographical like a regional focus. Is this national, or does it have any geographical focus? And is it priced similar to the rest of Black at the introductory level or does it have a different price point?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. It's going to be national and we'll do some special price promotions to go along with the POS so that we can promote trial. Again, in this category, where you don't have a lot of the traditional marketing tools the place where you have to meet adult smokers to let them try new products is at retail. So we'll have some price promotions there. But basically Michael it will be the same strategy. We want them to try the brand, we want them to be aware of it, and then obviously as these brands get traction we can dial back the promotions so as to pursue our strategy of maximizing the income out of this category.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
And then just in terms of scale, would this likely be a bigger opportunity than something like a Rich Blue, or can you put any context around what you might expect from it?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well I won't get ahead of our skis on that except to tell you that we are very excited about the brand. I think it's a terrific product. I think the package looks fabulous, and I think it's going to be very exciting for adult menthol smokers to try, and we are hopeful of getting conversion from competitive smokers.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
All right. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer with Cowen & Company.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning Vivien.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
I wanted to also follow-up on the new Marlboro line extension; sorry to belabor the issue. I was just curious given that one of your competitors had to pull a couple of SKUs out of the market because the FDA did not deem them to be substantially equivalent. Whether this is innovation that is already grandfathered in or was marketed as a different Marlboro variant and is being transitioned from a tracking perspective?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I don't want to get too tactical how we bring our products to market under the FDA regime, but we are confident that we are fully qualified to bring that product to market.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay, fair enough. On the inventory levels, obviously like the market share momentum has been good and easing industry volumes are certainly, I think, helping, but as I look across your wholesale inventories they've been growing sequentially for about five quarters now. So I'm just curious to hear your thoughts on kind of what the right level of wholesale inventories is as we think about the central unwind in the fourth-quarter.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well they go up and down over the course of the year. They usually smooth out for us over the course of the year for PM USA. We do have this trend this year of course where the volume declines have not been proceeding at the same pace as before, so there has been probably a little bit of disruption there. You know Vivien, if you look at the quarterly comparisons in Q3 there is not much to say about that. They look to have about the same effect. But you're right, they are a little bit higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the end of Q3 last year. So that is why we've called out in our release and also in our script that they may moderate in the fourth-quarter.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Perfect. Thank you. And Billy just one for you. I recognize currency has been a challenge for a lot of multinationals for quite some time. So as I look at the SABMiller numbers this quarter, in isolation I appreciate the drag from currency, but as I look across prior quarters, it feels like kind of there was like a currency catch-up or – I'm just having a hard time understanding why there was such a big hit this quarter than we hadn't been seeing given where the dollar has been trending for over a year now.
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Sure. Thanks for the question Vivien. I think you have to step back first and just put in context the overall Altria enterprise. When you think about the earning streams we have, we have very limited impact to foreign currency exposure. Specific to SAB, you're right, the primary driver there is foreign currency, and it is really the strengthening of the dollar against their various emerging market currencies as well as currencies around the world. That is something that we have experienced year-to-date as well as in the third quarter, and I think it is very reminiscence of what you're seeing with other global companies.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
But nothing in particular to call out in 3Q for SABMiller?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
Nothing in particular, no.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett with Nomura.
Owen M. Bennett - Nomura International Plc:
Good morning, guys.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Owen.
Owen M. Bennett - Nomura International Plc:
Hey, I just wanted to get your views on the cigarette industry volumes for the year. Obviously, a bit of a slowdown into the second half which you said was to be expected, but I was just wondering your views on how you see volumes for the full year now? And then also you noted the stabilization in smokeless industry volumes, now which is encouraging. I was just wondering how you see the smokeless category trending from here. Thanks a lot.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thanks for the questions. So year-to-date our estimate of industry volume decline is down a half. That obviously is a difference from what the historical trend has been of somewhere between 3% to 4%, and we'll just have to see going forward what the effect is going to be. But historically, the long-term trend is more like 3% to 4% on the smokeable side. On the smokeless side, several years ago, they were growing at, the industry volume was growing at 5-ish%. Then it fell basically to nothing and now we're trending back up, where our estimate for the latest six months is about 2.5%. So it's good news that the volume has come back into the category. And probably the principle driver there is that tobacco consumers continue to try different tobacco products throughout the categories. That probably explains the greatest part of the change in the volume trend there. But we're glad that the volumes are back.
Owen M. Bennett - Nomura International Plc:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for the call, Owen.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you, good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Judy. Welcome.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So, Billy, I actually do want to go back to Vivien's questions about the equity income because I still can't reconcile why the third quarter was down so much more than what we had been seeing in the first half of the year. So, it just doesn't seem to kind of jive with the first half. You were down I think in the low single digits on a year-over-year basis, and then in the third quarter that drop-off was much more significant. So I know there is a little bit of a sensitivity around what you can say about that performance, but just anything that we should be aware of just in terms of the third quarter impact?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer:
No, Judy. I basically would reiterate what I said to Vivien. I think when you look at it, it really is primarily driven by the currency impacts that you see in other global companies. Any time you look at a short-term period, you're going to see those fluctuations through time. I think if you look at it over the long term it is very similar to what you're seeing with other global companies with currency impacts. But thanks for the question.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then maybe just in terms of fourth quarter guidance, and I know you talked about the comparison getting a little bit tougher. Obviously the FX it sounds like it's going to be another drag in terms of the fourth quarter. If I just looked at your smokeable segment in the fourth quarter last year, though, it doesn't look like the profitability comparisons are that much tougher. So, is this really more of an FX issue? Are any other investments that we should be thinking about in the fourth quarter, if you do get some volume upside that potentially you're looking to reinvest back the upside into any of those initiatives?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No, I wouldn't read that into what we said. Honestly, the factors that we think are going to cause the moderation are called out in the release and in our remarks this morning. We are lapping a very significant effect from the quota, and we believe that even though the adult tobacco consumer is doing much better we are lapping the period where they got the effect towards the back end of last year in terms of gasoline prices and the like. So it's nothing more than that.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for the questions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Matt.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. So two questions. First, I wanted to come back to smokeless. And I guess the level of net pricing was a bit higher than what we have seen recently, both in absolute terms and on a year-on-year basis. And this sort of comes against the backdrop of still somewhat choppy category growth, and we've talked in the past about the factors playing into that. I'm fishing a little bit here, but has there been any shift in the way you're thinking about that balance between volume and pricing realization in that business over the near term?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No, the strategy remains the same. When I look at the pricing, it's up on a per-can basis about 3% call it for the quarter. But actually if you look at it year-to-date, Matt, it's about 2%, 1.9% or something. So naturally we're happy to have the pricing there but with a category with 65% operating margins and where we've got more than 50% of the share, we are trying to grow income principally through volume gains.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Marty. And two questions on vapor. One, we've seen more volatility in e-cigarette category growth, at least in measured channels recently, and I know it's hard to gauge. But do you have a sense of the level of growth that we're seeing in the overall vapor category to the extent you can track that? And then -
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
– and then secondly just on deeming. Have you had any dialogue with the FDA recently to get a sense of – not so much on timing, but any shift in their thinking as they are working toward a final rule on the deeming of other tobacco products?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thanks for the questions, good ones both. The answer to the first question is e-vapor growth has slowed down this year. So we had triple-digit gains year-over-year a couple of years ago, and then 50-ish% last year and it's obvious that while the category continues to grow it's not growing at anywhere near that rate. With respect to deeming, we know that the reg, as you know, has gone to OMB, but we do not have any insight into what they took onboard. I know there were lots of comments including ours that were filed in respect of the proposed deeming regulation, but we don't have any insight into what they have sent over.
Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Chris.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
I just had two questions if I could. First question, and I know you had mentioned that you've seen very little change in the competitive dynamic in the category, but you have you two competitors going through and selling in new retail contracts and a lot of that comes to fruition here in the fourth quarter. I was just curious if you've seen any change at the retail level from that? Are you seeing retailers potentially making some significant change in the shelf space, and that kind of thing? Any opportunity then for Altria is what I'm trying to get to.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. The answer is, we really haven't. But just to frame this out, this isn't the first time there have been changes in the industry, and naturally everybody competes really hard at retail, Chris, so everybody has got a lot of experience with their trade programs. We have evolved our trade programs for 2016. We've obviously anticipated that there might be changes and I think we are well positioned to compete there. But we haven't observed a lot yet to answer your question directly.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And then I had just a follow-up to Matt's question on vapor. Kind of two-pronged question. One being that MarkTen XL is expanding beyond its lead categories. Does that mean it's going national, will we see this across the country? Or is it just a slow methodical build from here? And maybe related to that then, how your promotional tactic has changed in the category just given the category slowed and we're lapping the initial launch of the product last year. Are you changing your promotional tactic now, and maybe focusing more so on profitability than on pure trial of the product?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. The answer to both questions, the word I would use is disciplined. The way that we are going, we are very happy with how MarkTen XL is performing. We were in lead markets as you know, and then we've had a terrific consumer response there. So what we are going to do is with discipline, we are going to roll it out into some additional lead markets through select accounts and learn more and try to get wider awareness and distribution of MarkTen XL. We are very encouraged about the consumer response to MarkTen. So we'll do that in a disciplined way. I would say in promotions it's the same thing. We have to get the product right. You have to listen to the consumer. You want to build awareness and trial. But you certainly don't want to overspend particularly, I might note, in a category where the growth has slowed. So we'll be very disciplined how we do that, but it's a place where we want to play. Our aspiration is ultimately for leadership. But this is emerging, an emerging product category, and we want to do it with a lot of financial discipline.
Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you for the time.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling, Chris.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Todd Duvick with Wells Fargo.
Todd Duvick - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Yes, good morning. Quick question for you on the balance sheet. I've noticed your debt has been going down the last couple of years and your leverage is in really good shape, one-and-a-half times. But it is also declining. Can you talk about, are you wanting additional capacity on the balance sheet for something like share buyback or acquisitions? Or is this a change in financial policy in just deciding to operate at a lower leverage level?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, thanks for the question. When we look at the balance sheet and kind of our debt levels we feel like we are in a good range currently where we are at, but we are always assessing the financing needs of the enterprise. Then when we make that decision that we want to go to the market, we look at market conditions and other factors to decide when we'll go. But no, there is no change in our financial strategies there, or policies, and we feel good about where we are at.
Todd Duvick - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And then I guess just related to the Anheuser-Busch SAB transaction. I think that you would be due some cash in the door from that transaction? Any ideas as to potentially use of those proceeds?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I think it is too early for us to be talking about that. As I mentioned in our remarks I just don't want to get ahead of a deal that has not been announced as to its final terms. If you can forgive us, we'll just hold off on that until that happens.
Todd Duvick - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Fair enough. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay, thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time I'd like to turn the call back over to Sarah Knakmuhs for closing remarks.
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President, Investor Relations:
Thank you, everyone for joining the call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President, Investor Relations Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Vivien Nicole Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC Owen M. Bennett - Nomura International Plc Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co. William Marshall - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2015 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and the question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President, Investor Relations:
Good morning and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO to discuss Altria's 2015 second quarter and first half business result. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing the results to the same period in 2014. Earlier today, we issued a press release regarding our second quarter and first half results. For a detailed review of them, please see our earnings release on our website at altria.com or via the Altria investor app. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which excludes items that effect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release, which is available on our website and via the Altria investor app. Now I'll turn the call over to Marty.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Sarah. Good morning everyone. Altria delivered excellent second quarter and first half results, allowing us to raise our 2015 full year guidance earlier this morning. We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share almost 14% in the second quarter and more than 13% for the first half of 2015 with a very strong performance from the smokeable product segment and solid contributions across our other businesses. The smokeable segment continues to perform extremely well. Adjusted operating companies income grew almost 16% in the second quarter and more than 14% for the first half on very strong fundamentals. Marlboro delivered 0.3% of retail share growth in both the second quarter and the first half of 2015. When adjusted for trade inventory changes and other factors, PM USA estimates its volume grew approximately 1% in the second quarter and 0.5 percentage for the first half. An improvement in the industry's rate of volume decline and retail share gains supported by relatively low gas prices and an improving economy drove PM USA's strong volume performance. In addition, strong net price realization and cost savings from the expiration of FETRA payments contributed to the double-digit adjusted OCI growth. In smokeless products, adjusted OCI grew 4.2% in the second quarter and 4.6% for the first half of 2015. USSTC's estimate of smokeless industry volumes showed near-term improvement with growth over the past 12 months of approximately 3%. This upturn in industry volume stems from similar economic factors as I've described in the smokeable product segment and adult tobacco consumers' continued exploration across tobacco categories. After adjusting for trade inventory changes and other factors, U.S.STC estimates its smokeless volume increased 2.5% in both the second quarter and the first half of 2015. U.S.STC grew combined Copenhagen and Skoal share 0.1% in the second quarter and 0.3% for the first half to 51.1% in both periods, in line with its strategy. In the wine segment, volume growth also helped drive another very strong performance from Ste. Michelle. Second quarter OCI increased 25% with volumes increasing nearly 9%, and for the first half, OCI grew 24%. In innovative tobacco products, MarkTen XL entered several lead markets in April. And while it's still very early, the results are encouraging. Nu Mark also expanded Green Smoke e-vapor products into retail lead markets in June. We're also continuing to complement our capabilities by partnering with others on innovative tobacco products. As we announced recently, we expanded our agreement with Philip Morris International to include a joint research, development and technology sharing agreement. As part of the agreement, Altria and PMI will collaborate to develop e-vapor products for commercialization in the U.S. by Altria and in markets abroad by PMI. This supplements the agreement with PMI that we announced in 2013 and is the latest step in our ongoing portfolio approach to innovative product development and commercialization. And of course, we continue to deliver value to shareholders. We paid approximately $2 billion in dividends in the first half of 2015. We also recently completed our $1 billion share repurchase program, purchasing approximately $263 million in shares in the second quarter and the remaining $63 million in July. In addition, Altria's board has authorized a new $1 billion program which we expect to complete by the end of 2016. So in summary, we're very happy with our first half performance, and the investments we've made and are making behind our company's brands continue to pay dividends. We remain confident in our strategies and in our ability to deliver long-term value to shareholders. Thus, we now expect to deliver adjusted diluted earnings per share growth in a range of $2.76 to $2.81, representing growth of 7.5% to 9.5% from our 2014 adjusted diluted EPS base of $2.57. Our guidance reflects a very successful first half and expectations that our businesses will continue to deliver solid results. It also reflects more moderate adjusted diluted EPS growth in the second half of 2015 due to several factors. These include lapping the effects of the improvements in the economy for adult tobacco consumers and lower gasoline prices, expected trade inventory movements and the effect of state excise tax increases. And the comparative benefit from the expiration of the federal tobacco quota buyout payments ends in the fourth quarter, and we now estimate our full year effective tax rate on operations will be 35.3%. Now I'll turn things over to Billy, who will give us some more detail.
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. Strong performance in the smokeable products segment helped drive our earnings growth in both the second quarter and first half of 2015. Higher pricing and volumes and lower FETRA expense drove adjusted OCI growth of nearly 16% in the second quarter and over 14% for the first half. These factors were partially offset by an increase in pension and benefit cost and investments in brand equity in both the second quarter and first half of 2015. The smokeable products segment continued to expand margins. Adjusted OCI margins increased by 3.3 percentage points to 47.5% for the second quarter and by almost 3 points to 47% for the first six months. Driven in part by Marlboro's momentum, PM U.S.A grew its overall retail share by 0.5% in both the second quarter and the first half, achieving second quarter retail share of 51.4%. L&M also turned in another strong performance despite a declining discount segment. PM U.S.A's reported cigarette shipment volume growth benefited from trade inventory movements and we expect these inventories to moderate going forward. When adjusted for trade inventory changes and other factors, PM U.S.A estimates that industry cigarette volumes were unchanged in the second quarter and down slightly for the first half of 2015. Also with respect to the cigarette business, seven states enacted excise tax increases with five taking effect July 1. We anticipate these SET increases will result in weighted average SET increase of $0.04 per pack through the end of 2015. Machine-made large cigars also contributed to the smokeable segment's strong performance. Cigar shipment volumes increased about 1% in the second quarter and over 5% for the first half. And Middleton sustained Black & Mild's very high share position in the high margin tipped cigars segment. In smokeless products, higher pricing helped drive adjusted OCI growth in both the second quarter and first half of 2015. Adjusted OCI margins contracted slightly to 66.4% in the second quarter and improved 0.4% to nearly 65% year-to-date. In the wine segment, increased shipments and improved premium mix drew strong OCI results for the second quarter and the first half of 2015. OCI margins expanded 2.5 points in the second quarter and almost 3 points for the first six months. In the all other category, lower OCI for both the second quarter and the first half was primarily driven by a decrease in residual values of certain aircraft at Phillip Morris Capital Corp. And finally, Altria recorded earnings from our SABMiller investment of $225 million in the second quarter and $359 million for the first half. That wraps up our results. Marty and I will now take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll direct your attention to altria.com. Along with today's earnings release, for your reference, we posted a list of quarterly metrics to include pricing, inventory and other items. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. Investors, analysts and media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. We will take question from the investment community first. Our first question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, Chris.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Nice results today. Congratulations on those. I just had two questions for you if I could. The first one just to understand on the inventory movements and certainly a benefit in the first half, should we therefore assume they come out in the second half? And I guess related to that, inventory, I should say volumes for the category, have been quite strong. Has there been any net/net increase in inventory at retail because of the strength in volume across the category?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Chris, I think you're right to believe that the inventories will smooth themselves out in the back half. You know, for PM U.S.A, as you know, generally they do smooth themselves out over the course of the year. Billy has called out the inventory movements that we saw in the quarter, and so on a comparative basis we benefited from that in the second quarter and those should smooth themselves out.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. I had just one question if I could on all the division and really on MarkTen. Just to understand, obviously now you're rolling out MarkTen XL and certainly Green Smoke, so you're still going to be it, seems like, in sort of a trial building phase. So I'm just trying to understand the investments and the promotions behind MarkTen. Are those changing? Are those still going to be geared towards trial? Or are those kind of adapting to a product line that's been in the market for a while now?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, let me try provide you some help on that. What we're trying the do is we discussed at some length I think at Investors' Day is to make sure that we're getting the product right. And so we have I think a very significantly improved product in MarkTen XL. The Green Smoke product is an excellent product. And so Chris, we're trying to get those out in lead markets. We're trying to do the promotion that's necessary to get trial on those products, learn whether we've got the product proposition right. As we've said before, we want to move forward with dispatch, but we want to do that in a financially disciplined way and we always want to be learning from the consumer. And the way you do that is you put these new kinds of products in market and you let the consumer guide your way forward. That's how we're thinking about both of those lead markets right now.
Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Well, thank you for your time.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes of the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Bonnie.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. I guess my first question is on your new guidance. I'm trying to get a sense for how conservative it might be since you mentioned it implies slower EPS in the second half of this year, which suggests only around 5% EPS growth, I guess, at the midpoint of your range. So given the strength of your underlying business, I'm trying to understand how big of a drag on earnings you really expect from some of the items you mentioned this morning and then that were in your press release. I was hoping you could drill down a little bit more on some of these headwinds for us, please.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay, well, let me try to give you some context for that. I mean to begin, the guidance that we have now for 2015 is above our long-term growth aspiration of 7% to 9%. Indeed, I think it's the highest that it's been in some period of time. So there's no question that we are having a strong year. We're very pleased with the performance of the business. So I think we should begin with that. But we grew 13% in the first half, and so we've recognized that we're starting to lap some benefits that likely contributed for example to the volume. So we know that the consumer, the adult tobacco consumer, began to feel better in the back half of the year. We had the sharp drop in gasoline prices, and that's going to be lapped in the back half. Billy has called out the end of FETRA payments in the fourth quarter. We're going to have an increase in our tax rate. And so those kind of benefits have all been taken into account. As we said regularly when we've talked about guidance, it's always a series of puts and takes. And in addition, we have some excise tax increases that we're going to have to see. So we think that represents our best judgment. I think it's a very strong performance, 7.5% to 9.5% off of a already high Altria base. So that's the way we're thinking about it for the second half.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And then I have a two-part question on Marlboro. First, I was hoping you could drill down further on what drove the impressive share gains behind the brand. And then how much of the gains were driven by some of your relatively new line extensions? Or has your core Marlboro continued to improve and contribute to some of these gains? And then secondly, I guess I'd be curious to hear more about your innovation pipeline. You did touch on this recently at your Investor Day, but do you have any more details to share with us at this time of potential new products that might hit the market later this year?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Good questions. Thanks. Let me take the second one first, because it's easiest. We do have lots of innovation in the Marlboro pipeline, but we're not prepared to announce it this morning. So I will announce it in due course. Listen, the fact on Marlboro is Marlboro is strong across the franchise. The Marlboro architecture has done its work and continues to do its work. So we are strong both at the core, and we are strong on the innovative products that you've made reference to. And in particular, Marlboro Black just continues to do gangbusters. It's the eighteenth quarter in a row that we've gained share there. It's doing a very nice job in the important 21 to 29 segment. So we're very pleased with total Marlboro. And I think Marlboro is performing as well as we've seen it, record share this quarter.
Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
All right. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling, Bonnie.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.
Vivien Nicole Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Vivien.
Vivien Nicole Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
So I wanted to ask a question about the health of the consumer. I think it seems reasonable that the benefits clearly are going to lap. But as you think about the back half of the year and your expectations around the health of the consumer, is it that the consumer doesn't get any healthier from here? Or are you expecting a weakening in the consumer landscape given rising retail gas prices?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No, I think it's more the lapping effect, Vivien, for us. I mean, there's no question that the adult tobacco consumer is stronger in 2015 as I think we predicted earlier in the year. We're getting some moderate benefit from that. We're simply pointing out that for example, does anybody think there's going to be another $0.80 drop in gasoline prices in the second half of 2015 compared to what happened to gasoline prices in 2014. So we're merely pointing out the comparative effect of 2014 over 2015. But to be clear, we think that the adult tobacco consumer continues to feel better. Housing starts are up. Unemployment is down. Consumer confidence, aside from maybe a little squiggle yesterday, consumer confidence is over 100. That all bodes well for the consumer.
Vivien Nicole Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Terrific. That's very helpful. And my second question has to do with the cigarette landscape. Premium continues to gain share. Clearly, that is benefiting Marlboro. Is that a dynamic that you expect to continue? And if not, what would disrupt that?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I sure hope so. And you're right that the premium segment has never been stronger. I saw a number the other day, I think it's as high as it's been in the last 15 years. And that's good for us because of our premium positioning. It's great for Marlboro. There's no question that there's been some uptrading across CPDG generally when you look at the data, as you know, and certainly that has been true for our franchise. So you would hope and expect that will continue as long as the adult tobacco consumer continues to feel like they're in a better economic circumstance.
Vivien Nicole Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Terrific. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for the call.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Nomura.
Owen M. Bennett - Nomura International Plc:
Good morning, guys.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hello, Owen.
Owen M. Bennett - Nomura International Plc:
I have a couple of questions, please. And firstly, I know early days, but are you seeing any disruption at trade as a result of the Reynolds/Lorillard deal? And if so, do you think you will be able to take advantage of this with regards to taking share? And then secondly, just coming back to e-vapor and the business progression there, is this any nearer to becoming profitable, or are we still some way from that and investment remains the priority at present? Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Bill, you want to take the first one?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. Owen, thanks for the question. As far as the disruption in the marketplace, what we're really focused on is our kind of flawless execution in the marketplace. So we focus on executing our initiatives at retail. If there is disruption, we're not paying attention to it. We're really focused on how do we execute flawlessly.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And on vapor, we're going to be in investment mode for a while. The category is early. I made reference earlier I think to product development, building distribution, building the brand. So we'd expect that this is going to be an investment category for us.
Owen M. Bennett - Nomura International Plc:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for the questions.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of CLSA.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Michael.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
So Marlboro's doing extremely well and the uptrading is obvious and premium is healthy, but I guess maybe switching gears just a bit, L&M was up sharply and certainly had outsized share gains for the size of that business. Can you just give a little color on maybe what's driving that? Is there anything in particular there?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes. I think L&M is consolidating share in the declining discount segment. That segment goes down, which of course for us is fine because we're in the premium end of the business, but L&M is a terrific offering for adult tobacco consumers there and it's picking up share in that segment.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay, great. Thanks. And then just looking at iQOS, can you give us a sense of the timing towards, the steps towards an eventual launch? And I know that obviously it involves the FDA, so it's inherently unpredictable, but maybe just handicap kind of what your guess is of when that might be able to take place.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, we're continuing to work very hard with PMI on iQOS, and I would say there's two tracks, Michael. The first track is the FDA track. The first milestone there will be the filing of an application to seek a claim on that, and then hopefully the second milestone will be the approval of that claim. Meanwhile and contemporaneously we are working on marketing plans and go-to-market strategies, packaging, branding. We're doing that work side by side so that we'll be ready hopefully to go when the FDA approves an application.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Okay, great. Thanks. And then just lastly on 3Q, we've got roughly a month already in. Have you seen any change yet in consumer sentiment? I know that sort of measured consumer sentiment score is only kind of a wiggle. Are you seeing anything in terms of retail changes yet as far as a slowdown, or is it still holding up quite nicely?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
You know, that's a nice try to get me to talk about the quarter that's not yet done, Michael. So just hang on for me, will you, and we'll talk about Q3 when we get to Q3.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
All right. No problem.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Michael S. Lavery - CLSA Americas LLC:
Thanks for your time.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. See you.
Operator:
Media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Judy.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So, Marty, I guess just in terms of thinking about pricing, so obviously your manufacturer pricing continues to be pretty healthy. If I just look at retail pricing, though, it's been going up more in the low single-digit rate and the gap has sort of continued to trickle down between Marlboro and the lowest priced brands. So just conceptually, what are some of the milestones that you're looking to get to sort of perhaps widen that gap going forward and with related to obviously the SET going up, how you think that the gap will kind of play out over the next six months or so?
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, we'll have to see over the next six months. I mean you know our strategy is we're trying to maximize income, so from a manufacturer's pricing point of view, we're always trying to do our part on pricing and you see that with pricing up nearly 5% for the first half. So the SETs do have some effect, of course. I think the estimate of the volume of the SETs we've seen is it's on about 10% of the volume and the rates varied kind of widely. So we'll have to see what the effect of that is. And then of course, pricing at retail ultimately is up to the retailers and the strategies that they employ in the cigarette category. So we're focused obviously on manufacturer profitability, and I think we've been doing a pretty good job lately in that regard.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then, Billy, just following up on the back half guidance, I could appreciate obviously the volume comparisons may be more challenging and you've got the inventory movement that perhaps does impact volume more negatively, but if I kind of look at your six months operating profit per $1,000 on your smokeable kind of running around $60 or so, would there be any reason to think that that steps down meaningfully sequentially in the back half?
William F. Gifford - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah, thanks for the question, Judy. I think when you think about it from a cost perspective, Marty mentioned earlier the expiration of the quota. We got the benefit of that in the fourth quarter of last year, so that's another item we'll be lapping. And then the only other item is, as we continue to stress the increase in pension and benefits that we have in the year, approximately $100 million, that is evenly spread basically throughout the year.
Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bill Marshall of Barclays.
William Marshall - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning. Thank you.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Bill. Good morning.
William Marshall - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Just wondering if we could talk a little bit about the smokeless segment. We've seen that category -- obviously the run rate on growth has remained a little bit lower than the historic norm for a couple of quarters consecutively. I think in the past, we've talked about the interplay between smokeless and some of the new products like e-cigarettes, so I'm curious to get your thoughts on if that's still the case. And then looking at your portfolio, obviously Copenhagen doing very, very well. Just the interplay between Copenhagen and Skoal and kind of your plans for those two brands going forward.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Good questions both. I think tobacco consumers are trying different categories and you have to measure these things over time. And so if you look, it was growing at about 5.5%. This is industry volume. It fell back to about 2% and now we've seen an uptick to 3%. So some of that probably is due to both movement of dual users between combustible products and smokeless products, as well as people experimenting with vapor and a few people sticking with vapor. So those are probably the right factors to think about there. Listen, Copenhagen is doing terrific work and I think that we're on the path to stabilizing Skoal. Our strategy is to grow them together and actually we did that. So you can see it grew 0.3% for the half for share together and actually and their combined volume was higher than our estimate for industry volume. So Copenhagen is a terrific brand. Skoal has a little bit of a harder job in that it has to compete with its principal competitor and it competes with Copenhagen. And so we've been working on the value equation and we're encouraged by what we've seen there. I think the way to think about this is the long-term strategy is well in place and it continues to deliver. You see the income growth for the half.
William Marshall - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Martin J. Barrington - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I will turn the call back over to Sarah Knakmuhs for closing remarks.
Sarah Fitzgerald Knakmuhs - Vice President, Investor Relations:
Thank you. Thank you all for joining us this morning and if you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This has concluded today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sarah Knakmuhs - VP, IR Marty Barrington - Chairman and CEO Billy Gifford - CFO
Analysts :
Owen Bennett - Nomura Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities Chris Growe - Stifel Nicolaus Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs Matthew Grainger - Morgan Stanley Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company William Marshall - Barclays
Operator:
Good day. And welcome to the Altria Group 2015 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Altria’s management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, ma’am.
Sarah Knakmuhs:
Good morning and thank you for joining us. We are here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria’s CEO; and Billy Gifford, Altria’s CFO to discuss Altria’s 2015 first quarter business results. During our call today unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2014. Earlier today, we issued a press release regarding our first quarter results. For a detailed review of them, please review the earnings release on our website at altria.com or via the Altria investor app. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria’s Board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which excludes items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release, which is available on our website and via the Altria investor app. Now I’ll turn the call over to Marty.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks, Sarah. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call. Altria is off to a strong start in 2015. Our core tobacco businesses continued to deliver on their strategies, backed by the strengths of their leading premium brands. Each of our reportable segments grew operating companies income and expanded their margins. Altria grew its adjusted diluted EPS by 10.5%, paid approximately $1 billion in dividends, and repurchased 3.6 million shares in the first quarter, and earlier this morning we reaffirmed our guidance for 2015 full year adjusted diluted EPS growth of 7% to 9%. Here are some important highlights from the quarter. PM USA delivered on its smokable segment strategy of maximizing income, while maintaining modest share momentum on Marlboro over time. This segment produced outstanding results in the first quarter driven by higher pricing, higher volume and Marlboro retail share growth. PM USA has invested steadily to strengthen Marlboro and those investments continue to pay-off. As a result, the smokable segment grew adjusted operating companies income by over 12% in the quarter. PM USA’s reported cigarette shipment volumes grew 1.6% in the quarter, benefiting from a moderation in the industry decline rate, trade inventory movements and retail share gains. In the machine made large cigar category, John Middleton continued to strengthen its leadership position in the profitable tipped cigar segment. The company posted strong double-digit volume growth in the quarter driven primarily by Black & Mild. In the smokeless product segment, USSTC grew first quarter operating companies income by 5% and expanded its operating company income margin by one percentage point to over 63%. USSTC estimates that its adjusted smokeless segment volumes grew approximately 4% in the quarter, while smokeless industry volumes grew 2% over the past 12 months. Copenhagen and Skoal grew their combined retail share by half of a percentage point in the quarter. Turning to innovative tobacco products, Nu Mark remains focused on building a robust portfolio of innovative tobacco products for adult smokers and vapors. Nu Mark began shipping its next generation e-vapor product, MarkTen XL, into lead markets this month. In the wine segment, Ste. Michelle posted a quarter of nearly 23% operating companies income growth, primarily through improved premium mix. In the first quarter, equity earnings from SABMiller investment were negatively affected by SABMiller special items and unfavorable currency impacts from a stronger dollar. The investment continues to support our strong balance sheet and provides cash flow through its dividend. So, we came into 2015 with momentum, and our first quarter results reflect another quarter of strong execution against our well defined strategies. We believe our businesses are positioned to help us deliver against our full-year guidance. Billy Gifford will now discuss our business results in more detail.
Billy Gifford:
Thank you, Marty. Good morning everyone. Our smokable products segment helped drive adjusted diluted EPS growth of 10.5% in the first quarter. The smokable products segment and fewer shares outstanding also contributed to that growth. The smokable products segment delivered strong adjusted operating company’s income growth of 12.6%, primarily driven by higher pricing, higher shipment volume and lower resolution expenses due primarily to the end of the federal tobacco quota buyout payments. Despite costs being higher in the quarter due primarily to higher pension and benefit cost and timing of SG&A spending, the smokable segment expanded its adjusted OCI margins by 2.3 percentage points. Volume was also strong. After adjusting for trade inventory changes and other factors, PM USA estimates that its first quarter cigarette shipment volume was essentially unchanged and that total industry volumes declined approximately 0.5%. For the quarter PM USA grew Marlboro’s retail share by three-tenths of a share point to 44%, and grew its total cigarette category retail share by fourth-tenths of a share point. L&M share gains also contributed to PM USA's first quarter performance as the brand continued to grow its share while the overall industry discount category declined in the quarter. In the total machine-made large cigars category, Black & Mild’s retail share declined 0.6 points in the first quarter. As Marty mentioned, Middleton continued to concentrate on the more profitable, tipped cigars segment, where Black & Mild gained share. In the smokeless products segment, operating companies income increased 5% in the first quarter as higher pricing was partially offset by higher promotional investments. After adjusting for trade inventory changes and other factors, USSTC estimates that its domestic smokeless product shipment volume grew approximately 4% in the quarter, while the industry grew approximately 2% over the past 12 months. Copenhagen and Skoal’s combined retail share grew five-tenths of a share point in the quarter to 51.2%. Copenhagen’s retail share grew one share point, while Skoal’s retail share declined five-tenths of a share point. The wine segment delivered very strong results in the first quarter. Ste. Michelle grew operating companies income by 22.7% in the first quarter, primarily driven by improved premium mix. Shipments increased by 0.5% in the quarter. That wraps up the operating results. Marty and I will now take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, let us cover a few housekeeping items. As a reminder, comparisons when made are against the first quarter of 2014 unless we note otherwise. Marlboro's price gap versus the lowest effective price cigarette was 31% in the first quarter, down 2 percentage points. For the first quarter, Marlboro's net pack price was $6.06, up $0.15, and the lowest effective priced cigarette was $4.62, up $0.17. The estimated weighted average cigarette state excise tax was $1.49 per pack for the first quarter, up $0.01. Wholesale inventory changes are one factor PM USA uses to estimate adjusted PM USA and industry volumes. PM USA estimates that its wholesale inventories were approximately 2.6 billion units at the end of the first quarter of 2015 and 2.4 billion units at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014. At the end of the first quarter of 2014, PM USA's wholesale inventories were estimated to be approximately 2.5 billion units. PM USA estimates that cigarette industry wholesale inventory levels were 5.5 billion units at the end of the first quarter of 2015 and 5.4 billion units at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014. PM USA estimates that first quarter of 2014 wholesale inventory levels were 5.5 billion units. Copenhagen's price gap versus the leading discount brand was 29% in the first quarter, down 3 percentage points. Copenhagen's retail price was $4.22 in the first quarter, up $0.13. The price of the leading discount brand was $3.26 in the first quarter, up $0.17. CapEx was $48 million for the first quarter. Ongoing depreciation and amortization was $49 million for the quarter. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Nomura.
Owen Bennett:
Good morning guys.
Marty Barrington:
Hello Owen.
Owen Bennett:
And couple of questions please, I mean firstly, any commentary on Marlboro Black is that still taking share, if you could say, I mean, how much of Marlboro share growth is being driven by Black and then secondly, any update on recent market share trends for MarkTen. I notice how you no longer have the statement about being amongst the top e-vapor brands nationally like you did at year end and should we read anything into that? Thanks very much.
Marty Barrington:
Sure. Let us start with Marlboro Black. It continues to do a terrific job. In fact, it has grown for 17 consecutive quarters. We don’t break the shares out by SKUs as you know Owen, but Marlboro Black is doing a terrific job, particularly in the important segment of adult smokers, 21 to 29. I hope you had a chance to see our remarks [Indiscernible] about our vapor business. Our aspiration there is to succeed in the long term. What that means is we are moving with appropriate dispatch, but with financial discipline, always learning from the consumer and frankly what we are working on principally right now in addition to our distribution and brand building is product development. Consumers are telling e-vapor manufacturers that the products are not yet there. That is why you see us improving our product development pipeline and to be sure, share is important, but it will be important as soon as the products are established with the consumers. We are not unduly focused on share. We are focused on getting the right products in the consumer’s hands.
Owen Bennett:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie Herzog:
Good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Hi Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog:
Hi. My first question is on consumption, given the strong industry cigarette volume and the decelerating smokeless industry volume, do you have a sense of underlying total tobacco consumption when considering both of these categories, and then do you believe it is rising and if so why? And then maybe touch on, your outlook for, the cigarette decline rate, is the 3% to 4% decline rate realistic going forward?
Marty Barrington:
Okay, great. Thanks for those questions. Let me start with cigarette volume. We don’t forecast volume going forward as you know. It has been 3% to 4% over the last several years and we think that, you have to look at that over time. To be sure this quarter is a break, but it is only a quarter. So we will have to see. Probably the best answer to your question about consumption is the total consumption rate over the last several years as measured by government sources, which has been declining at about call it 1% to 1.5% total pounds. So that takes into account Bonnie, all of the products that adult tobacco consumers are trying and of course it is a dynamic time. We have seen more movement among the categories. That is probably the best marker.
Bonnie Herzog:
Yes. I mean that was kind of the basis for my question because, how smokers industry volume has been – has been performing not as well. So I think there has been a lot of interplay between the two categories. So you would agree with that?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, and I think there is still growth there of course.
Bonnie Herzog:
Right. Sure, it has just been [disarranged] slightly. And then I did want to touch on MarkTen and just hear from you just any updates you have about recent consumer behavior for MarkTen and then could you talk about the revenue for the business given that was down quite a bit sequentially, but was up year-over-year, but I am trying to also understand how much of a drag potentially was in those numbers from your financial service business. So if you could help me understand that that would be helpful?
Marty Barrington:
I will try to give you a little help. It is in the all other category and so we don’t break it out too much under that. But we are in investment mode. That is the best way to understand it and in response to Owen’s question I pointed out that we have a lot of work underway to make sure that we have a robust portfolio of products because that is what the consumers are saying to everyone, which is, I’m willing to try these products, but they are not quite there yet. And so we are continually working to improve our offerings. That is why we have come out with MarkTen XL, twice the battery size, and so forth. And so I think that is the way to understand it and we are going to be investment mode here, but we do it in a financially disciplined way, always cognizant of our long-term financial goal of 7% to 9% growth in our EPS and we have been able to pull that off, and I’m confident that we will over time.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay, thank you and then speaking of MarkTen XL, when do you expect that to be a nationwide expansion. I think you mentioned you are growing out into lead markets, and then how incremental do you anticipate this is going to be and how concerned are you with cannibalization for that extension?
Marty Barrington:
We will talk about national once we get into lead markets and we see how it does. That is our innovation system, which is to put products in consumers hands, conducting experiments about whether the offering is interesting to them, find out how we can improve it and then we roll forward, and you saw that is how we did MarkTen. I think that is what you should expect with MarkTen XL.
Bonnie Herzog:
Okay, and then just my final last question is your discount volume has been strong especially O&M, I like to hear what has been driving that especially given the stronger consumer, and maybe here have you touched on how you are balancing the growth of this segment with margin expansion, and what your strategy is in this space?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, good questions both. Look, our focus is on the premium end of the business. More than 90% of PM USA cigarette shipments are premium and that is where the action is for us. But of course there is a discount segment out there. It is declining over time. The real reason that we are growing our discount business there is because of L&M. It is a terrific product that is priced competitively in the marketplace and it is doing great. So it is not our principal focus, but it does help the business albeit small.
Bonnie Herzog:
All right. Thank you.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for your questions Bonnie.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Chris Growe of Stifel.
Chris Growe:
Hi, good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Hi Chris.
Chris Growe:
Hi. Just had a question for you, this is several quarters in a row where the price gap between Marlboro and the lowest priced product in the market has been down, and you have been taking very strong [Indiscernible], two questions around that, one would be as you look at your promotional setting overall in the quarter, could you say that was up or down, and I mean for the cigarette business overall, and then is there any – are you pulling back on promotions say in the premium side versus discount to help widen that gap. We seem to be in a little better economic situation today and perhaps that gap could widen a bit from this level?
Marty Barrington:
Okay. Thanks for your questions. Let me go at it this way. We had net pricing realization in the cigarette – in the smokable segment of more than 5%. So you can see that despite the fact that the price gap has narrowed, we are as you point out taking strong pricing, which is great. The reason the price gap has narrowed in the quarter is because some discount brands increased their pricing faster than the premium brands did, and that is what accounts for the math, including some rounding frankly when you do the math and the price gaps. So price gaps are a important metric as we have spoken about and we keep an eye on them, but boy, to have a quarter where we can grow our volume, grow our margin, get strong pricing realization, you can see the result of that Chris with nearly 13% operating company income growth. That is pretty good algorithm for us price gaps narrowing or not. I don’t know Bill you want to say a word about promotional spend?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think if you think about it Chris, you will recall last year we actually had started dialing back promotional spend around Marlboro, and so we’re lapping that as we go through the first quarter.
Chris Growe:
Okay, great. Thanks for your time today.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling in Chris.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong:
Thank you. Good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Good morning Judy.
Judy Hong:
So I guess I wanted to just go back to the cigarette consumption question and I hear this is one quarter, we really have to look at it on the longer term basis, but I don’t recall a quarter where you had this kind of volume performance with the price growth that you are seeing across all the players. So, I’m just wondering if you could give us a little bit more color just in terms of the sustainability of this kind of performance within the current macro and competitive backdrop, if there is anything in terms of the investments that a lot of the players have made and perhaps bring equity building initiatives are kind of driving some of that as well because it seems to kind of imply that historically when you saw the volume performance really come through, typically it was associated with lower pricing and certainly that is not what we are seeing today?
Marty Barrington:
Yes. Let me see if I can give you a bit more color to try to help you with it. You are right. It has been some time since we have seen numbers like this. Part of it is the comp versus a year ago. I mean the volume was down pretty significantly in the first quarter of ’14 as you remember. But there is no denying that several factors are at play here. The economy is improving. It is improving for our consumer set finally, happily after this very difficult time during the recession. We have the phenomenon of dropping gas prices and if it occurs for us at a time after we have made very significant investments in Marlboro. We implement the Marlboro architecture. We launch Marlboro Black. I would say all of those factors came together to contribute to what is a very strong quarter for PM USA. That is our analysis for our business at least.
Judy Hong:
Okay. And then Billy, just thinking about the SABMiller contribution clearly the effects and some of the headwinds from a macro perspective is depressing SAB with contribution right now. It is a business that obviously you don’t necessarily have a control over in terms of the operating performance. How do you sort of think about your 7% to 9% earnings growth algorithm to the extent that if SABMiller, the currency continues to weaken, do you have levers, either buyback or at the operating line that you can offset the weakness or because it is sort of outside of your control, you kind of look at that as more of a transient factor?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, Judy. I think when you think about the SABMiller asset, it has been a great asset for us. It has performed very well. We are talking about one quarter and you mentioned the negative drivers from that equity income year-over-year, one being the special items, which were primarily related to asset impairment and then the negative currency drag. We don’t provide down to that level for the total year, but now at the beginning of the year when we provide that guidance we incorporate a number of factors and SAB was incorporated in that.
Judy Hong:
Okay. So basically you have a view of how SABMiller would perform throughout the year and that bakes – that is just baked into your guidance. But to the extent the SABMiller piece gets worse than your anticipation, I guess the question is really do you have other levers to kind of drive the offset?
Billy Gifford:
Yes, I think Judy overall you heard us reiterate guidance today. We feel good about that and we feel good about where the business is.
Marty Barrington:
I do think Judy, it is Marty, that your reference to levers is exactly correct. That is what differentiates the Altria offering. We have numerous levers that we can use to try to meet our long-term goal of 7% to 9%, and if you look over the last several years we have been able to do that has various businesses have been up or down.
Judy Hong:
Understood. Okay, thank you.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for your question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Matthew Grainger of Morgan Stanley.
Matthew Grainger:
Hi, good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Hi Matt.
Matthew Grainger:
Hi, two questions, one, first I wanted to ask you about the performance in the smokeless products segment, and specifically the acceleration in consumption for your products during the quarter, improving to 4%, Marty I just wanted your assessment of what actions you have taken or what factors during the quarter would have driven that acceleration, is that a function of perhaps addressing the value proposition around some of the brands in the degree of pricing that you have taken or would you attribute some of that to tactical efforts that you have made on Skoal whether you are seeing any impact there?
Marty Barrington:
Sure. I think you have identified the two drivers. One is Copenhagen continues to grow strongly. You see a share point in the quarter and I do think the actions we are taking on Skoal are improving. In fact if you look at the quarterly results for Skoal, it is down half a share point, but it is the fourth consecutive quarter where it has narrowed those share losses year-over-year. We gave it a new equity campaign. We have terrific equity-based promotions I think that are improving its relationship with its consumer set and then as we have been working on the price gaps on Skoal Classic. I think all of that is helping to steady up Skoal, and that is spot on strategy for us. So I think it is the combination of Copenhagen’s continued growth and our work on the value equation on Skoal.
Matthew Grainger:
Okay, and I think we saw more improvement in [UST] volumes than we did for the category overall, but would you say there is any change in the level of interaction between smokeless and other alternative – other smokable alternatives?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, I know. It is just hard to tease that out right now. It has been a couple of quarters. We do know that some of the growth previously in smokeless was due to cigarette smokers coming into the category. We now know that there are vapor alternatives. We now have a recovering economy. It is just really hard to tease out Matt what exactly those factors are, but we will be able to do it over time I would expect.
Matthew Grainger:
Okay, thanks. And just one question on the cigar performance as well, just if you could help me better understand the mismatch between the volume growth in the market share trend? I know you are focused on tipped, but with volumes up 10% and share down roughly 50 basis points, does that imply that growth is up 15%, 20% in untipped, or is that just noise in the data?
Marty Barrington:
It is probably short term noise, although untipped does continue to grow. What we’re trying to do is to balance the share question with profitability and in this segment we always try to maximize income first. So, Black & Mild happily has a very strong share position in the segment that is providing frankly most of the profitability, and we think that is the better course at this time.
Matthew Grainger:
Okay, great. Thank you both.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Vivien Azer of Cowen and Company.
Vivien Azer:
Hi, good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Good morning Vivien.
Vivien Azer:
So not to labor the point, but I also do have a question on smokeless tobacco, Marty we talked a lot about price elasticity in cigarettes and clearly they are holding up quite well, can you just remind us how you guys think about or chalk out price elasticity in the smokeless segment?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, we have some proprietary models for that that allow us to try to get some sense. They are not as highly developed as you might expect in a category that has been around as long as cigarettes, but that is really a proprietary view of it, which I’m not prepared to talk about on the phone candidly.
Vivien Azer:
Okay, fair enough. As we look ahead to the mix shift that is ongoing in the cigarette segment, is it wise to say if the consumer continues to hold up, can you point back to another time where we have seen this much kind of trade up or resumption in trade up and how we should think about that trajectory continuing all else being equal from a macro perspective?
Marty Barrington:
Well, we do know that when adult tobacco consumers are feeling better about their economic situation, they want to be in premium brands. And in this category, the premium brand they want to be in is Marlboro. We have seen that several times if you go back in history for example and you look at the [indiscernible] narrow price gaps got out of line the consumer was not feeling good about that. You’re much too young to remember Vivien, but people predicted that was going to be end of brands and so forth. In effect it wasn’t, it was that one the consumers thought that the price gap was appropriate. They came right back rowing into Marlboro. So, Marlboro has that kind of equity and we would expect that as consumers continue to consolidate around premium brands that Marlboro will do just fine.
Vivien Azer:
Terrific, thank you very much.
Marty Barrington:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from [indiscernible].
Unidentified Analyst:
Good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Hi, Michael.
Unidentified Analyst:
Just back on Marlboro, obviously it had a strong share performance in the quarter, can you just highlight any of maybe what the key drivers were there and how much Rich Blue have contributed?
Marty Barrington:
It’s early for Rich Blue, it’s having a nice little effect in a trace I would say Marlboro architecture, Marlboro Black, strong Marlboro equity those continue to be the drivers of Marlboro’s growth.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay that’s helpful. And then, just looking at it on a longer view going back 5, 6 years it’s up a little over 2 share points, your discount share is up slightly as well, but it is partly offset by about a 1.5 share loss for the other premium, you just said obviously your premium focused company and clearly Marlboro is the focus and the star, but is there anything you can do with the other premium brands that would make sense to invest there or is there any way, how do you think about those as a piece of the puzzle and is there any way to hold or gain share in those that make sense?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, that’s really a terrific question, we do have these other terrific premium brands that we offer for adult smokers they don’t get a lot of support because frankly they have their franchise pretty settled and are very profitable. But parliament is probably the best example, we gave some limited support to parliament last year and it really paid back very well. Our focus is Marlboro, the other premium brands produce nice profitability contribution and if we can do some modest things for them that help stabilize their share well producing that profitability, we’re open to that.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, that’s helpful thanks. And then, just lastly on maybe a little bit just broader view where do you see sort of risk is there near term or long term and just what do you kind of see as where the watch outs are, what maybe specifically for this year in terms of what could put you at the lower end of the guidance or just longer term in terms of strategically?
Marty Barrington:
Well, there is always risks in every business right, and we kind of look at that at the beginning of the year and the category like this, you’re always watching volume, you’re watching your pricing power, you’re watching regulation, you’re watching excise tax, I mean, you’re competitive activity now those of all, then well handled overtime and we have good plans and place for all of them but if you are trying to identify factors in this industry that present risk as well as opportunity those are probably some of them.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, thank you very much.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Bill Marshall of Barclays.
William Marshall:
Thank you, good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Hi Bill.
William Marshall:
Just kind of building off of Judy’s question I think from earlier in your comments Marty, obviously there is a lot of top line momentum here and even underlying the consumer seems to be doing better and you pointed that the levers that you have across the P&L, just want to put into context your strong first quarter into context with your full year outlook of 7% to 9% earnings growth. Is there anything specific we should be looking out for the spending ramp up, is it just a matter of a tougher 4Q comparison anything specifically in there as you launch Nu MarkTen product anything that we should be looking out for?
Marty Barrington:
No, I don’t think in particular. I think Billy said it best earlier which is when we put the year together for our guidance, there are always puts and takes and we look at the operating company performance and we look at SAD contribution, you always look at exercise taxes and so forth and so on. So, I think the guidance that we put together which we reaffirm today just reflects our view particularly early in the year about we can do. I think we pointed out previously, I think when we gave the guidance, we have got some pension and benefit expense which is flowing in. We’re are winding up the Philip Morris Capital core business so it’s not contributing at the same rate it used to contribute at. And we’re making discipline investments in the innovators space that’s probably the best way to look at that Bill.
William Marshall:
Okay, thank you. And just a quick question. I’m just a curious on your side, as you see when your competitors go through the MRTP modified with tobacco product process with the FDA, just wanted to get your thoughts about prospects for the PM technology – and if you had any idea of a timeline when you think that could be commercialized and kind of the process that you’re looking at going through onto get that into market?
Marty Barrington:
Yes that’s an interesting area to ask about, thank you. Listen, one of the reasons we supported FDA was because this process now allows manufacturers to bring products to the FDA to try to see if we can get them qualified as modified risk or reduced risk. And so, the [indiscernible] was the first hearing and there was quite a lot of buzz about that but it was just a first hearing, it was expected to be a long term project to bring these projects to market so I think I wouldn’t be over reading that too much. We continue to work with BMI on our own process regarding heat not burn, the first milestone to watch for will be the filing of the application. And then hopefully the one after that will be its approval and that we continue to work in the meantime on our branding and marketing and go to market strategies as we’re very hopeful about that product and as you know we’ll have the exclusive on that product in the United States. So, we continue to pursue that.
William Marshall:
Thank you.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Thank you, there are no further questions. At this time I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Sarah Knakmus for any closing comments.
Sarah Knakmuhs:
Thank you everyone for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow up questions please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sarah Knakmuhs - VP, IR Marty Barrington - Chairman and CEO Howard Willard - EVP and CFO
Analysts:
Matthew Grainger - Morgan Stanley Vivien Azer - Cowen and Company Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs Owen Bennett - Nomura Chris Growe - Stifel Nicolaus Michael Avery - CLSA Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets Michael Felberbaum - The Associated Press
Operator:
Good day. And welcome to the Altria Group 2014 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last approximately one hour including remarks by Altria’s management and the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead ma’am.
Sarah Knakmuhs:
Good morning and thank you for joining us. We are here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria’s Chairman and CEO; and Howard Willard, Altria’s CFO to talk about Altria’s 2014 business results for the fourth quarter and full year. During our call today unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2013. Earlier today, we issued a press release regarding our fourth quarter and full year results. For a detailed review of Altria’s business results, please review the earnings release on our website at altria.com or via Altria investor app. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria’s Board. The timing of share repurchases also depends on marketplace conditions and other factors. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which excludes items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release, which is available on our website and via the Altria investor app. Now I’ll turn the call over to Marty.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks, Sarah. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call. Altria had another terrific year in 2014. For the full year, we again delivered against our two long term financial goals. We grew adjusted diluted EPS by 8% and we paid out approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS to shareholders in dividends which totaled $3.9 billion. We also raised our dividend by 8.3%, marking the 48th increase in the last 45 years. We further rewarded shareholders by repurchasing nearly $1 billion in shares between the program we completed in 2014 and the new $1 billion program we announced in July. And in 2014, Altria delivered total shareholder return of 34.5%, far outpacing both the S&P 500 and the Food, Beverage and Tobacco Index. We achieved these results by the clarity of our core strategies and our talented employees’ strong execution against them. Here are some important segment highlights from the quarter and the full year. The smokable products segment produced outstanding results by consistently executing its strategy of maximizing income while maintaining modest share growth on Marlboro and Black & Mild over time. The segment grew adjusted operating company’s income by almost 8% in the quarter and by nearly 7% for the full year, primarily through higher pricing. The end of the federal tobacco quota buyout payments also contributed in the quarter. The segment also expanded adjusted operating company’s income margins in both periods. Marlboro was the primary driver of these strong financial results. PM USA's long-term investments in the Marlboro architecture have strengthened the brand’s equity and expanded its ability to engage both loyal and competitive adult smokers. In 2014, the brand posted its third consecutive year of retail share growth. And Marlboro continues to innovate. In November, PM USA expanded distribution of Marlboro Menthol Rich Blue to 28 states, primarily in the eastern US to enhance Marlboro’s position in the menthol segment. It’s early but Rich Blue is off to a good start. In the machine made large cigar category, John Middleton strengthened its leadership position in the tipped segment. The company posted solid volume growth in the quarter and the full year, driven primarily by Black & Mild. Over time Middleton has enhanced the brand with innovative introductions like Black & Mild Jazz and in December, Middleton announced the national expansion of Black & Mild Casino, a dark tobacco blend in the tipped segment. In the smokeless products segment, USSTC continued to execute its strategy in 2014. USSTC grew full-year adjusted operating company’s income by more than 3% and expanded its already strong adjusted operating company’s income margin by more than 1% despite a slowdown in the industry volume growth rate. We estimate that growth rate to be about 2% for the last 12 months. USSTC maintained retail share leadership in the smokeless category in 2014 with its premium brands as Copenhagen and Skoal grew their combined share in the quarter and for the full year. Copenhagen posted strong share gains in both periods, behind the strength of Copenhagen Long Cut Wintergreen. In 2014, USSTC began enhancing Skoal’s value equation with a new equity campaign and targeted investments to narrow price gaps on Skoal Classic. We’re pleased with the results we’ve seen so far. Turning to innovative tobacco products, Nu Mark made steady progress as it builds e-vapor category leadership. The company is taking a disciplined approach and remains focused on building a robust portfolio of superior innovative products for adult smokers vapor. In the fourth quarter, Nu Mark evolved MarkTen by adding a new offering with 2.5% nicotine concentration by weight in classic and menthol varieties. In December, Nu Mark completed its national launch of MarkTen e-vapor products achieving distribution in over 130,000 stores and at year-end MarkTen was ranked among the top e-vapor brands nationally based on retail market share. Nu Mark also acquired and integrated Green Smoke in 2014. This acquisition added great people, deep supply chain expertise and technology and we’re excited about the brand’s potential. It’s still early days in this dynamic and evolving category but we believe Nu Mark is increasingly well-positioned for the future. In 2014, our alcohol assets continued to diversify our income and contribute to income growth. In the wine segment, Ste. Michelle posted another year of double-digit operating company’s income growth, primarily through higher volume. Critics awarded Ste. Michelle’s premium wines more than 180 ratings of 90 or better in 2014. Our earnings also benefited from our SAB Miller investment which continues to support our strong balance sheet. So to sum up, 2014 was another excellent year for our strong premium brands, for our company and for our shareholders. We’re maximizing income in our core premium tobacco businesses and innovating for the future. We’re extremely proud of the results produced by our very talented employees and of our track record for creating value for shareholders. Looking ahead to 2015, Altria forecast its 2015 adjusted diluted EPS will increase by 7% to 9% to a range of $2.75 to $2.80 from an adjusted diluted EPS base of $2.57 in 2014. Finally today we are announcing some executive leadership changes all to be effective March 1 this year. First, Dave Beran, our President and Chief Operating Officer has decided to retire after 38 years of distinguished service to the company. Dave’s strong expertise, knowledge, financial acumen and leadership have contributed immeasurably to Altria success and he will be missed. When Dave retires, Howard Willard will become Altria’s Chief Operating Officer. He has significant experience having been with the company since 1992. In addition to his current role of CFO, Howard has held leadership positions in numerous business functions of the Altria companies. Bill Gifford will succeed Howard as Altria’s Chief Financial Officer. Billy has been with Altria since 1994 and also has held numerous roles including President and CEO of PM USA and his current role as Altria’s Senior Vice President, Strategy and Business Development. These moves are consistent with our long-term succession planning and these talented experienced leaders will serve us well for the future. I’ll now turn things over to Howard who will discuss Altria’s business results in more detail.
Howard Willard:
Thank you, Marty. Good morning everyone. In 2014 strong performance in our smokable products segment helped drive adjusted diluted EPS growth of almost 16% in the fourth quarter and 8% for the full year. A lower effective tax rate on operations and lower interest expense were also contributors to adjusted diluted EPS growth in both periods. The smokable products segment delivered strong adjusted operating company’s income growth in the quarter and for the full year. The segment also expanded adjusted operating company’s income margins 1.8 percentage points in the fourth quarter and 1.9 percentage points in the full year. For the full year PM USA grew Marlboro’s retail share by one-tenth of a share point and grew its total cigarette category retail share by two-tenths of a share point. L&M share gains also contributed to PM USA's full-year retail share performance while the cigarette discount segment declined slightly. The smokable products segment’s fourth quarter reported operating company’s income grew 7.6% primarily driven by higher pricing. For the full year, the segment’s reported operating company’s income declined 2.7% primarily due to higher gains on NPM adjustment items in 2013. After adjusting for trade inventory changes and other factors, PM USA estimates that its fourth-quarter and full-year cigarette shipment volume decline approximately 2% and 3% respectively and the total industry volumes declined approximately 2.5% and 3.5% respectively. The 2014 full-year industry cigarette decline of 3.5% continues to be in the range of the decline rate we’ve seen in the last few years. In cigars, Middleton's reported cigar shipment volume increased by almost 4% for the fourth quarter and over 6% for the full-year driven primarily by Black & Mild strong performance in the tipped cigars segment. Black & Mild’s retail share decline four-tenths for the quarter and three-tenths for the full-year. In the smokeless products segment, adjusted operating company’s income was unchanged in the fourth quarter as higher pricing and higher volume were offset by higher promotional investments and the timing of selling general and administrative expenses. For the full year, the segment grew adjusted operating company’s income 3.3%, primarily due to higher pricing and higher volume, partially offset by higher promotional investments and product mix. Adjusted operating margins declined 2.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter, to 60%, and grew 1.1 percentage points to 63.4% in the full year. After adjusting for trade inventory changes and other factors, USSTC estimates that its domestic smokeless product shipment volume grew approximately 2.5% in both the fourth quarter and full year of 2014. Copenhagen and Skoal's combined retail share grew four-tenths of a share point in the quarter to 51.3% and grew 5-tenths to 51.2% for the full year. The wine segment delivered strong results in the fourth quarter and the full year. Ste. Michelle grew operating companies' income by 17.8% in the fourth quarter and 13.6% in the full year, primarily driven by higher volume. Shipments increased 9.6% in the quarter and 4.8% for the full year. That wraps up our operating results. Marty and I will now take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, let's cover a few housekeeping items. As a reminder, comparisons when made are against the fourth quarter and full year of 2013 unless we note otherwise. Marlboro's price gap versus the lowest effective price cigarette was 32% in the fourth quarter, down 2 percentage points, and 33% for the full year, down 1 percentage point. For the fourth quarter, Marlboro's net pack price was $6.02, up $0.16, and the lowest effective priced cigarette was $4.55, up $0.17. For the full year, Marlboro's net pack price was $5.96, up $0.13, while the lowest effective priced cigarette was $4.49, up $0.15. The cigarette discount segment's retail share was 24.9% for the fourth quarter and full year, down 3-tenths in each period. The estimated weighted average cigarette state excise tax was $1.49 per pack for the fourth quarter, up $0.02, and $1.48 per pack for the full year, up $0.04. Wholesale inventory changes are one factor PM USA uses to estimate adjusted PM USA and industry volumes. PM USA estimates that its 2014 wholesale inventories were approximately 2.4 billion units at the end of the fourth quarter and 2.3 billion units at the end of the third quarter. In 2013, PM USA's wholesale inventories were estimated to be approximately 2.5 billion units at the end of both the fourth and third quarter. PM USA estimates that the 2014 cigarette industry wholesale inventory levels were 5.5 billion units at the end of the fourth quarter and 5.7 billion units at the end of the third quarter. PM USA estimates that 2013 wholesale inventory levels were 5.9 billion units at the end of the fourth quarter and 6.3 billion units at the end of the third quarter. Copenhagen's price gap versus the leading discount brand was 32% in the fourth quarter and full year, down 3 percentage points for the fourth quarter and 4 percentage points for the full year. Copenhagen's retail price was $4.19 in the fourth quarter, up $0.12, and $4.13 for the full year, up $0.07. The price of the leading discount brand was $3.17 in the fourth quarter and $3.14 for the full year, up $0.15 in each period. CapEx was $47 million for the fourth quarter and $163 million for the full year. Ongoing depreciation and amortization was $59 million for the quarter and $208 million for the full year. Looking ahead to 2015, we expect capital expenditures will be in the range of $200 million to $250 million and the depreciation and amortization will be approximately $200 million. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger of Morgan Stanley.
Matthew Grainger :
Congratulations to everybody. There's a couple people, so I'll just say everyone. But -- so Marty, I guess first, I just wanted to get your updated thoughts on the current economic outlook and how that is impacting cigarette consumption, because we've seen now two consecutive quarters of improving volume trends, which I know, generally, you would attribute just to quarterly volatility and the full year was in line with the long-term average. But at this point, can we say that we are seeing some evidence of stronger consumption or as you look across the industry, better product -- better portfolio mix?
Marty Barrington :
Yes, that's great question. Let me give you are view of the adult tobacco consumer for 2015, which I really think goes to the heart of what you're asking about. We've been cautious for the last several years, as you know, as we went through this difficult recession. We are actually seeing a modest improvement, I think, in the economic situation for the adult tobacco consumer, although it remains a bit of a mixed bag. The US economy is clearly improving, as everyone knows, and particularly in relation to the rest of the world economies, we see unemployment and underemployment have come down, we see housing starts are coming back, we see very good consumer confidence numbers. So I think all of that is a positive -- those are positive factors. On the other side of the ledger, you have labor participation rates maybe not where they should be. And then year-over-year wage gains are still modest. But I think on balance, our view is that the adult tobacco consumer is feeling better about their economic situation and their economic future and we expect some modest improvement in that over 2015.
Matthew Grainger :
Do you have any industry volume outlook that you're willing to share at this point?
Marty Barrington :
No, we don't do that, as you know. But I think especially if you look out over the last three to four years, which includes, of course, this very difficult recessionary period, you see it, Matt, really 3% to 4% and you call it maybe 3.5% on average over the last four years. PM USA has done better than that at about 3%, because of its strong portfolio and its share gains. So we don't see any big disruptors in that, but we don't forecast volume going forward.
Matthew Grainger :
And Howard, if I could just follow up on smokable products. The 8% adjusted OCI growth in the quarter, obviously it's a very strong number, but I guess I'm almost surprised that it wasn't even stronger, given the absence of quota buyout costs during the quarter. Can you just talk about the increase that we saw in per-pack costs year on year, excluding the quota buyout and where within the cost architecture of smokeable products you are seeing places to reinvest back in the business?
Howard Willard :
Sure. Yes, I would tell you that, as you note, the cost per pack in the smokable segment was up quite a bit in the fourth quarter. I have to tell you I think that is primarily driven by timing. If you looked, we had less expense in the third quarter and we don't tend to manage our expenses and our project execution quarter to quarter. We are really managing to a full year. And I think if you look at the trend of expenses in the full year, it was at a much more normal level. But certainly, we felt good about the fourth quarter performance. We had strong increases in net revenue per pack, up around 5%. And of course, we did receive the savings in the FETRA payments in the quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen and Company.
Vivien Azer :
So to follow up on Matt's question, clearly, the cigarette industry volume dynamics are easing, but we've got a deceleration in MST. So can you talk about the interplay? I know we talked about this a little bit last quarter and it's something that you will watch over time, but with another quarter of deceleration, I was hoping you could opine on what is causing that deceleration and whether there's a dynamic that involve cigarettes as well?
Marty Barrington :
I think we will have to see. Obviously let's will start with smokable. It really had a strong -- Howard has already described the strong quarter and the strong year and we are very happy with the smokable performance. And actually, you see USSTC had a very good year; it grew its income at about 3%. But we've observed this volume deceleration now over the last three quarters and that's at odds with what we've seen for the prior several years. So Vivien, they have more choices today and so there's some movement there, but these things best are evaluated over time. So I'm not sure I have any big insights to share with you this morning on that, except to say that it speaks first to the wisdom of having a total tobacco platform. So as adult tobacco consumers move within these categories, that Altria is well positioned to offer them premium brands with great margin structures. So that's how we think about the business. And we will have to study the volume, I think, for some time yet to know the answer to the question you're proposing.
Vivien Azer :
Fair enough. For our modeling purposes, if you will, is this a deceleration that you guys are planning for to continue internally as you think about 2015?
Marty Barrington :
Well, I'd like to say we try to help you guys as much as we can with your modeling, but I can't -- and I applaud your courage for trying to get me to tell you -- but I really, honestly -- the answer I gave you was the honest answer, which is we're going to have to see. And we've set up our year with our operating plans, I think, which is all embedded in our full-year guidance, which is quite strong at 7% to 9%.
Vivien Azer :
On the cigarette side, as we look across to 2015, can you provide an update on the outlook for the state excise tax environment, given how the NYMEX has been over the last few years please?
Marty Barrington :
I missed what you said, Vivien. You faded out right at the end, I'm sorry.
Vivien Azer :
Oh, I apologize. Can you provide an outlook for the 2015 state excise tax environment?
Marty Barrington :
Yes. Well, we're always cautious at the beginning of the year, aren't we? And we’ve all seen that the state excise tax environment has been more moderate in the last several years than it has been previous. But we go into each year prepared to answer the call, because as you've observed and others have observed, as soon as the legislatures come back in January, we see the proposals start to roll in and there are a number of them that are out there. We have very good government affairs people that point out that this is unfair to tobacco consumers and these products already highly taxed, but we will have to see how the year plays out. It's been a fairly moderate environment over the last several years and we hope that plays out in 2015.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie Herzog :
So in terms of your EPS growth guidance of 7% to 9% for this year, it is in line with your historical trends and seems very conservative given the strong pricing and tremendous cost savings you have this year. So I assume you will be fully reinvesting these savings into your different businesses. So my first question is why not let some of the strength flow to the bottom line? And then second, could you give us a sense of what the different investment buckets are, for instance, 70% of the savings will be invested in e-cig's vapor, 30% in combustible? Just again, trying to get a sense of your priorities.
Marty Barrington :
Sure. Let me offer you a slightly different perspective. In previous years, we've come out, I think, for the last several years at 6% to 9%, not at 7% to 9%. And the factors that went into our judgment this year about how the guide includes some of the things we've already spoken about on the call, which is a modestly improving situation for our adult tobacco consumer. Obviously, we have the benefit of some FETRA payments, but we I think pointed out in our release we have some pension and healthcare cost changes due to long-term assumptions. And so every year, you put your guidance together and you have puts and takes about what you're going to do. Some years, we invest, some years, we have factors which are flowing in the other direction. I think 7% to 9% in the current environment is a strong signal about the confidence we have in our business and our operating Company plans. Howard, you might want to supplement that answer.
Howard Willard :
Yes, no, I think you covered it, Marty. The only other thing I would point out -- and this has been with us for some time and I think has been quite orderly -- but we are continuing to unwind the PMCC business and as that progresses, there are fewer and fewer asset sales that are available. So that's another element that plays into the overall company performance.
Bonnie Herzog :
And then I do have a broad question on the consumer and uptrading. So I'm certainly hearing from a lot of the retailers that consumers' greater disposable income is leading to up trading. So is this, too, what you've seen in your Marlboro franchise and has there been a mix shift to premium Marlboro, if I could call it that? And also you generated the strong net price realization in cigs, but I'd be curious to hear from you what happens when gas prices go back up? In other words, how sustainable do you think the strong pricing in cigs will be, especially if and when gas prices rise?
Marty Barrington :
Okay, let me try to comment on a couple of those to try to help you. I think gas prices for us -- historically, we have not called out gas prices as one of the principal drivers of consumer behavior, although we acknowledge that it had some effect. To us, it was really more about the unemployment rate, consumer confidence, and housing starts. Now the way that gasoline prices have gone down so precipitously has obviously had a bigger effect on the consumer, right? The C stores, as you and others have pointed out, are seeing better traffic. And I don't think there's any question that it is contributing to consumers feeling better about their economic situation. But historically, Bonnie, we have not called that out as one of the big three drivers. So I don't know what people here are expecting for gasoline prices, but it probably will not have that much more of an effect. We did have very good pricing. And the way that we achieve pricing, as you know, is we took list pricing in 2014, combined $0.13 a pack. And then as always, we can moderate our promotional allowances and we did so last year. We moderated our allowances on Special Blend -- Marlboro's Special Blend and on Black. And as you know, we are able to do that quite tactically by state by using our SVP tools. So we did see a year in which we think we could take some pricing and I think you see that in the numbers for 2014.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong :
So one follow-up and another question. So on a follow-up perspective, Howard, you have talked about the fourth quarter being impacted by some timing of expense items. Just on a full-year basis though your marketing and R&D expenses were up over $200 million. So I just wanted to get a bit better sense of where that spending was allocated in 2014, how much is that sustainable into 2015 and thinking about the guidance for 2015?
Howard Willard :
Yes, I think with regard to marketing and R&D, I really don't feel that there's been any dramatic departure this year versus prior years that I would call out, with probably the one exception being that this was the year that we made some significant investments through Nu Mark in the e-vapor category. And obviously, that's had an impact on our R&D investments as we built that product pipeline and certainly, there's some marketing that supports that as well. But that's really the primary impact there.
Judy Hong :
And then maybe on the e-vapor category itself, if you look at some of the measure channel data, the category has slowed. You've obviously expanded the MarkTen distribution. I'm just wondering if you could talk about your assessment about the category generally at this point? And then you also talked about more of a disciplined approach to building MarkTen. So can you just elaborate on that and in light of the dynamics, how you're thinking about the performance that you are seeing from MarkTen?
Marty Barrington :
Sure. Well, let's start with the category. Our estimate is that the consumer spending in 2014 increased by about 50% to about $2 billion. And that’s compared to a year before, which I think you've seen in the numbers are roughly of a 160% increase. So you can see that it has slowed, although 50% increase is still fairly large. It's growing in both traditional trade channels and it's also growing in vape shops, which are harder to get a line of sight into. To dimensionalize that spend, though, $80 billion is spent on conventional tobacco products versus the $2 billion that we estimate. So just to put it in its proper context. With respect to Nu Mark, our belief is that that is an interesting enough category for us to participate in and to aspire to have leadership in. That is a leadership that will be achieved over the long term and for the long term, which is why we use these words about financially disciplined and over time. We want to participate there. We believe Nu Mark had a very good year. Gosh, we got the MarkTen product in 130,000 retail stores and that's easy to say and that's hard to do. And so our sales force at Nu Mark did a great job there. They rolled out, as we mentioned in our remarks, the 2.5% product. Consumers continue to look for their product and so I think a lot of what's going to happen with vapor is about manufacturers trying to bring out products that better satisfy their consumers. And that's what Nu Mark is doing. It's for the long term. It will be for the long term. And we are learning our way in with our consumer and using a disciplined approach, but with the acquisition of Green Smoke and their people and their technology in addition to Nu Mark, I am very encouraged about what we have in the pipeline for MarkTen.
Judy Hong :
And then lastly, Howard, just in terms of 2015 guidance, can you tell us how much share buyback is incorporated?
Howard Willard :
I'm not going to guide at that level. I think we previously talked about the fact that we have an existing share repurchase program in place. It's got a little over $500 million left. And we had communicated we expected to finish that by the end of the year, so that hasn't changed. And certainly any share repurchase plans we have are incorporated into the 7% to 9% guidance.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Nomura.
Owen Bennett :
Just following on the e-vapor question then I guess, have you got any update on potential timescale and for commercialization of PMI's heat-not-burn?
Marty Barrington :
No, we are working on it. That has to go through the FDA process, as you know, and we are working closely with them on it. And I think we feel like we're making good progress and I think PMI would tell you the same thing, but I can't give you a date, because it's subject to the FDA's processes.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Chris Growe :
Just I have two questions. I think a bit of a follow-up from earlier questions. The first one would be, Marty, in relation to Marlboro and the discount products on the market today, that price gap is quite narrow at 32%. It's been there for several years. You talked about I think to an earlier question, the improving consumer environment. Could we see that price gap expand? So therefore, are economic conditions in such a place that it would allow for premium products to take a little bit more pricing than discount products?
Marty Barrington :
And that would be our hope, of course, as we try to maximize income in the smokable segment, which is the price gaps have been higher at times in its history and -- but you have to be thoughtful about how you do that and when. But certainly, that would be in our interest of maximizing income.
Chris Growe :
And then another question on the, call it, the other division, where you have PMCC and Nu Mark. And I know it's hard -- if you can characterize each of those businesses and how they perform. But you had a large investment and a huge national launch in MarkTen in 2014 and the investments, so that operating loss in that division obviously expanded. I'm just curious, is it such that you've got a full pipeline that that operating loss couldn't come down or has the Nu Mark business, which has obviously generated some decent sales now, gotten to a point to where we should see less operating loss in the coming year?
Marty Barrington :
Yes, I know that everybody is trying to get under the all other, but we've really got two things operating there. We are investing in Nu Mark, which makes sense for the long term. And then Howard has pointed out that as we wind down PMCC, we have fewer asset sales and they tend to be lumpy from time to time. So that's what's going on over there. And we're just not going to guide down too much deeper than that, Chris, if you'll allow me.
Chris Growe :
I understand. And maybe I think you made a mention earlier, just to follow on, about a strong pipeline of products at Nu Mark. Should we expect some more activity behind product launches this year in ‘15? Is that a fair question?
Marty Barrington :
Well, it's a fair question. And I am going to reserve my answer so that I don't hand out my competitive plans on the phone. But yes, you should be thinking about this, I think, in terms of the category. We expect to have products that will be launched that will be better and better, as I expect that other people are planning similarly. I think that's exactly the nature of the category right now. We've got good plans for that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Avery of CLSA.
Michael Avery :
Can you just give a sense of what some of the investments -- what type of investments would be ideal for the savings that you've got coming from the buyout just in terms of equity building. Obviously, you have some relatively limited options in some of your marketing capabilities. Can you just give a sense of what the tools are that would be highest priority for how you would think about applying some of those extra funds?
Marty Barrington :
Well, again, I'm not going to lay that out to tell everybody exactly how we're going to spend our assets to improve our business. But you've seen us over time do such things as develop the Marlboro architecture, to improve our Marlboro digital site, to roll out new products, like Rich Blue and Black, and so forth. So there's lots of places for us to invest in our businesses. Our goal is to keep our brand franchises strong and relevant and there's lots of tools to do that, even, as you point out in a category which has higher regulation. And then we have obviously, as has previously been described, some investments to make in our innovative products. So that's how I would think about it, Michael, at a high level. I'm just not going to lay it out in detail, as I'm sure you can understand.
Michael Avery :
And just looking at the 4Q market share numbers, even with the improving consumer health, you had the discount segment really driving the share gains, with Marlboro flat. Is that a focus for 2015 to try do -- obviously, I'm sure you enjoyed getting the lift in the discount share. But is there a way you want to try to manage that to bring Marlboro further ahead or is a sort of steady state also -- how do you think about Marlboro versus the total portfolio and what the priorities are in terms of just how you approach that?
Marty Barrington :
Yes, it's a good question. Our aim is modest share momentum on Marlboro. And we previously characterized, I think, that as if we get a tenth or 2-tenths a year, that's great for Marlboro. Listen, our focus is on premium. Over 90% of our shipments are premium, but there is a discount segment and so we try to participate there. And L&M is a great offering at that price point.
Michael Avery :
And then just lastly on Green Smoke, it's been the MarkTen rollout you've taken nationally. What's the next step for Green Smoke? Would that follow it?
Marty Barrington :
Well, we're working on that. I mentioned, I think, to someone else that we've been integrating Green Smoke. They've really helped us quite a lot on the front end with supply chain. They had a well-established supply chain and we've been relying on them quite heavily to help us in that regard. They have very good people and they do have a good technology pipeline. We've been integrating all that in 2014. Remember, we closed on this, I think, in April, if memory serves. And so we've now been integrating that and we have an integrated pipeline of products as well, as we become more efficient with those two organizations. So yes, I would expect to see more from the combined Nu Mark/Green Smoke assets.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi :
Two questions from my end. The first one is on the Marlboro architecture. It's been a couple years now since it's been implemented. And I was wondering if maybe you had some context perspective you can share in terms of brand equity scores or any kind of indicator -- quantitative indicator on kind of what the effect has been? Clearly, we've seen the Marlboro franchise do well over this timeframe, so I just wondered if you had some more granularity on some of the quantification behind Marlboro. And the second question is -- and this is I guess more strategic. It seems like the superpremium cigarettes segment is doing fairly well and has been doing fairly well and there is really not that many players in that market. I just wondered from a strategic standpoint how PM USA really thinks about that.
Marty Barrington :
Yes, let me tackle those in turn. Good questions, both. You're right; Marlboro architecture has been a terrific boost for our business. We've talked previously about having the flavor families and allowing different marketing approaches in the families and what it's done for marlboro.com has been great. I think that's shown up in the performance of Marlboro. With respect to any quantitative brand equity data, we may talk about that some in CAGNY. So if I could just ask you to hold tight on that, I think we'll have some further information for you in that regard. With respect to superpremium, the way -- let me just mention a strategic approach to this, which is we are always looking for places in the market where there is business, where we either are under-indexed but we don't have an offering. And so we look at things all the time. And while I don't have anything to announce about that, I can assure you we look at places to build our business, both there and elsewhere.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Felberbaum of The Associated Press.
Michael Felberbaum :
I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color more broadly on the strength of the Marlboro brands and how it's been able to sort of stave off some increased competition as well as whether that the economic -- the recovering economic situation?
Marty Barrington :
Well, Marlboro is a fantastic product for adult smokers that comes with decades of leadership, with lots of innovation and with lots of offerings for people who are in the category and it has consistently grown its share over decades. We are the stewards of this brand and we pay a good deal of attention to Marlboro. It speaks both to the product's function and to its equity and that's been Marlboro's story. I’ve commented earlier on the call about -- we see that the economy is strengthening a bit, hopefully for our adult tobacco consumers. We certainly hope that's going to be the case in 2015. End of Q&A
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs for closing comments.
Sarah Knakmuhs :
Thank you everyone, for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at investor relations. We look forward to seeing many of you at our CAGNY presentation on February 18.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sarah Knakmus – VP, IR Marty Barrington – Chairman and CEO Howard Willard – EVP and CFO
Analysts:
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs Vivien Azer – Cowen & Company Michael Lavery – CLSA Bonnie Herzog – Wells Fargo Owen Bennett – Nomura Chris Growe – Stifel Nicolaus Matthew Grainger – Morgan Stanley Steve Marascia – Capitol Securities Management
Operator:
Good day. And welcome to the Altria Group 2014 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last approximately one hour including remarks by Altria’s management and the question-and-answer session. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead ma’am.
Sarah Knakmuhs:
Thank you, Lori. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We are here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria’s Chairman and CEO; and Howard Willard, Altria’s CFO to talk about Altria’s 2014 business results for the third quarter and the first nine months. During our call today unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2013. Earlier today, we issued a press release regarding our third quarter and first nine month results. For a detailed review of Altria’s business results, please review the earnings release on our website at altria.com. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and timing of share repurchases remain subject to the discussion of Altria’s Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which excludes items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release, which is available on our website. Now I’ll turn the call over to Marty.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks, Sarah. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call. Our companies are delivering well against their strategies, and our business results are on track. In the first nine months of 2014, Altria delivered solid adjusted diluted EPS growth of 5.5%. During the third quarter, the Board increased our dividend by 8.3% and authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program. And earlier this morning, we’ve reaffirmed our adjusted EPS guidance of 7% to 9% for the full-year of 2014. Here are the highlights for the third quarter and the nine months of 2014. The smokable production segment performance this year has been outstanding. We delivered strong adjusted operating company’s income growth of 9% in the third quarter and 6.3% year-to-date, driven by solid pricing. Adjusted operating company’s income margins also grew both in the quarter and the first nine months. Marlboro continues to show modest share momentum as again one-tenth of a share point in both, the third quarter and year-to-date, in line with our strategy in the smokable segment. It’s apparent that the investments made in the Marlboro architecture are paying dividends and we’re excited about the brand’s strong equity and momentum. In smokeless, USSTC continues its strategy to grow income by growing volume, at or ahead of the category, and maintaining modest share momentum on Copenhagen and Skoal combined. In the first nine months, the smokeless segment delivered 4.4% adjusted OCI growth, in a competitive environment, with lower industry volume growth. USSTC strengthened its leadership position behind the combined performance of Copenhagen and Skoal. For the third quarter of 2014, these two premium brands achieved their highest combined share since the acquisition of UST at 51.3 share points. Turning to innovative tobacco products, Nu Mark continued its national expansion of MarkTen e-vapor products and is developing a robust product pipeline. MarkTen achieved distribution in nearly 80,000 retail stores. As of September 30, 2014, MarkTen continued to be ranked in the top three e-vapor brands in the Western US based on retail market share. Nu Mark plans to further expand MarkTen in the Eastern half of the US and complete its national expansion in the fourth quarter. Our diverse business model and strong balance sheet support our strong and growing dividend in our ability to enhance shareholder returns through share repurchases. In August 2014, Altria’s Board increased the regular quarterly dividend by 8.3% to $0.52 per share. Altria paid shareholders almost $1 billion in dividends in the quarter and nearly $3 billion in the first nine months. We remain focused on our target, dividend payout ratio of 80% of adjusted diluted EPS, and we expect to continue to raise the dividend in line with adjusted diluted EPS growth. In the third quarter, Altria completed the prior $1 billion share repurchase program. In July 2014, the Board authorized a new $1 billion program, which Altria expects to complete by the end of 2015. During the third quarter of 2014, Altria repurchased approximately 6.4 million shares of its common stock, at an average price of $42.87 for a total cost of approximately $275 million. As of the end of the third quarter of 2004, Altria had approximately $778 million remaining in the current $1 billion share repurchase program. In summary, we’re very pleased with our year-to-date business performance and strong execution. Our core tobacco businesses are performing well, and we are making disciplined investments in innovation for the future. Together, we are managing our diverse business model and strong balance sheet with the objective of delivering consistent earnings growth and shareholder returns year-after-year. Howard will now provide additional details on the quarter and for the first nine months.
Howard Willard:
Thank you, Marty. Good morning everyone. Altria Group third quarter adjusted diluted EPS by 6.2% and today we reaffirmed guidance for both, adjusted and reported diluted EPS. Altria expects to deliver adjusted diluted EPS growth of 7% to 9% in a range of $2.54 to $2.59 of an adjusted base of $2.38 per share in 2013. We expect stronger adjusted diluted EPS growth in the fourth quarter driven by several factors, including a significantly lower fourth quarter effective tax rate on operations, resulting from Altria’s 2013 debt tender offer and lower fourth quarter costs in the smokable products segment, due to the end of the federal tobacco quota buy-out payments. Turning to the smokable products segment, we delivered strong adjusted OCI and adjusted OCI margin growth in the third quarter and first nine months of 2014, primarily through higher pricing. Adjusted OCI margins expanded 2 percentage points in the first nine months of 2014. PM USA grew Marlboro’s and its total cigarette category retail share in the third quarter and nine months year-to-date. After adjusting for trade inventory fluctuation and other factors, PM USA estimates that its third quarter and first nine months cigarette shipment volume declined approximately 3% and 3.5% respectively, and the total industry volumes declined approximately 3.5% and 4% respectively. The 2014 year-to-date industry cigarette decline of 4% continues to be in the range of the decline rate we’ve seen in the last few years. Middleton’s reported cigar shipment volume increased 8.4% for the third quarter and 6.8% year-to-date, driven by Black & Mild’s strong performance in the tipped cigars segment including Black & Mild Jazz. In the smokeless products segment, adjusted OCI grew 0.7% in the third quarter and 4.4% year-to-date. Adjusted operating margins grew 3.1 percentage points in the third quarter to 64.9% and 2.4 percentage points to 64.6% year-to-date. After adjusting for calendar differences and trade inventory changes, USSTC and PM USA estimate that their combined domestic smokeless products shipment volume grew approximately 2.5% in the third quarter and 3% in the first nine months of 2014. USSTC and PM USA estimate that the smokeless products category volume grew approximately 3% over the last 12 months, reflecting slower industry volume growth in the past two quarters. Copenhagen and Skoal delivered third quarter retail share of 51.3 share points, up four-tenths from last year, driven by Copenhagen’s retail share growth of 1.4 share points. USSTC is investing both in Skoal’s equity and to narrow price gaps on Skoal Classic. These investments are designed to enhance the long-term combined performance of Copenhagen and Skoal. The wine segment continued to deliver solid results. Ste. Michelle grew OCI by 10.7% for the third quarter and 11% for the first nine months. Shipments increased 4.2% in the quarter and 2.5% year-to-date. That wraps up our operating results. Marty and I will now take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, let me cover a few housekeeping items. As a reminder, comparisons when made are against the third quarter of 2013, unless noted otherwise. Marlboro’s price gap versus the lowest effective priced cigarette was 33%, down 1 percentage point. Marlboro’s net pack price was $5.98, up $0.12. The lowest effective priced cigarette was $4.51, up $0.15. The cigarette discounts segment retail share was 24.9%, down from 25.3%. Wholesale inventory changes are one factor PM USA uses to estimate adjusted PM USA and industry volumes. PM USA estimates that for 2014, wholesale inventories were approximately 2.3 billion units at the end of the third quarter and 2.1 billion units at the end of the second quarter. Last year, PM USA’s wholesale inventories were estimated to be approximately 2.5 billion units at the end of the third quarter and 2.2 billion units at the end of the second quarter. The estimated weighted average cigarette state excise tax was $1.48 per pack, up $0.01. Copenhagen’s price gap versus the leading discount brand was 30%, down 6 percentage points. Copenhagen’s retail price was $4.15, up $0.08. The price of the leading discount brand was $3.19, up $0.20. In the third quarter, CapEx was $56 million, and ongoing depreciation and amortization was $49 million. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Investors, analysts and media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Marty Barrington:
Good morning Judy.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
So Marty, I guess you had a very strong cigarette profitability or the smokeless division had very strong profitability with very strong pricing, margin expansion. Just curious if you can talk about the competitive landscape and the ability to sustain this kind of very profitable growth in the segment, and especially as you get into the fourth quarter where you been obviously will have another favorable tailwind in terms of your cost standpoint?
Marty Barrington:
Well, thanks for your question and thanks for your comment. There was very strong performance over at the smokable segment. When you look at the numbers that we’ve reported this morning you see, income growth 9% and margin expansion, very good pricing realization, very good steady momentum on Marlboro in line with our strategy, and then of course the volume declines have moderated below what the industry estimate is from us. So that’s a very strong performance. I think what it represents, Judy, is that coming together of some of the work that we’ve done. If the Marlboro architecture is clearly paying back dividends, our strategy is to maximize income. That’s how we’re trying to execute our plan this year and that’s what we should expect going forward. They change a little bit over time quarter-to-quarter, but over time that’s the strategy and we’re trying to be consistent in that regard.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
Okay. And then Howard, any help you can give us just in terms of just really dissecting a bit more the all other segment performance from a sales and profitability perspective? I understand there is a lot of noise around the financial services business, but you’re also making investments on the MarkTen. So just curious how we should think about that business? And then, are we done in terms of all the investments related to the MarkTen national launch. Does this step up again in the fourth quarter or is this sort of the peak investment quarter, as we think about that business?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I think as we’ve indicated previously, we’re not going to break down the detail in that other segment any more than that as indicated in the release. But as we’ve said since the beginning of the year, our results this year are impacted by the fact that we are both making investments in Nu Mark throughout the year, and at the same time, the comparisons of our PMCC operating company’s income are affected by lower asset sales this year than last year. And both of those create a negative year-over-year comparison in the other segment.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
Okay, but sequentially is there anything you can talk about just in terms of how much the national expansion of the Nu Mark would have helped the revenue line, just to get a sense of, if we’re actually seeing progression on the MarkTen sales side, I understand there is a lot of investment that’s going on, but just trying to just sort of reconcile with what we’re seeing from a Nielson market share data perspective and sizing the MarkTen number, from that data to kind of what you’re actually reporting from a shipment perspective?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I’m not going to provide any further detail on a quarterly comparison basis.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
Okay, all right. And then just my last question, Marty. Just the smokeless tobacco segment, I mean clearly you had the one less shipping day that impacted the reported shipments. The category seems a little bit slower though if you adjust for the shipment days. So just can you talk about what’s happening from a category perspective? And obviously you’ve had some investments you’re making to tweak some of the pricing around Skoal. How do you think that that’s going in terms of the context of your market share performance?
Marty Barrington:
Sure, let me talk about those in turn. As you know, we try to estimate the category growth in smokeless on a 12-month trailing basis. And using that metric over the last several years I guess I would say, it’s been in the range of about 5%. And then you see that our estimate today is about 3%, because it’s slowed down in the last two quarters which has that effect. We’re analyzing what’s going on with the growth rate right now carefully. It goes I think without saying that, as categories get bigger, the growth gets harder as they get bigger. And I think everyone also recognizes that tobacco consumers have choices today as they choose their products. So we’re looking at that carefully. I think it’s important probably to say what we’ve said with respect to that growth rate, what we say with respect to the cigarette decline rate, which is it’s really best measured over time. And so we have two quarters of data here which are taking us in this direction, but we’ll look at it carefully over time. With respect to Skoal, I always start out by reminding folks that, while Skoal has its challenges, it is a top three brand with 20 share points in a segment for us that has 65% operating margins. So it’s a big brand with good profitability. Its challenge though is that it competes both, with its competition, but it competes with Copenhagen, which is the iconic brand in the category of ours that continues to grow very strongly. So we’re trying to work on that. As you know, this takes place over time. Howard has already made reference to the fact that we’ve worked on its equity positioning. We have a new equity campaign. You’ve seen the ads in print, I’m sure. We have very good new equity based promotions for Skoal in the marketplace that have been very well received. And then with respect to Skoal Classic, which remembers at the premium price point, we’re trying to get that price point adjusted for price gap management purposes, so that to compete more effectively against this principal competitor, and we’ve been able to do that, we do that tactically by state because it makes difference in terms of the excise tax rates. So it takes place over time, but we are encouraged by where we’re going with Skoal. We manage our premium brands for the long-term and we are patient.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
Okay. Thank you.
Marty Barrington:
Judy thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen & Company.
Vivien Azer – Cowen & Company:
Good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Hi Vivien.
Vivien Azer – Cowen & Company:
So Marty, you called out the success of the Marlboro architecture, and that’s clearly evident in the continued momentum that you have on the Marlboro brand. I know you guys don’t like to talk about individual product lines within the Marlboro family, but may be could you talk about Marlboro Black in totality, where you’ve called that out as a good share gainer over time in previous discussions?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, I do think that the Marlboro architecture is best understood in context of the four families, but it is true that the addition of the Marlboro Black flavor family has been a terrific boost for Marlboro. That brand continues to perform very well. I think we’re now in our 15th consecutive quarter of growth for that. And it’s highly relevant to adult competitive smokers. It’s a terrific product in a great pack. But I do think that apart from Black, the best understanding of the Marlboro architecture as we’ve discussed previously as you know, is to understand that it has opened up the marketing freedom to speak to people who are in the franchise and adult competitive smokers in different ways, and to market to them in different ways. And I think in totality, that’s why you see Marlboro performing as well as it has done. That and many other things – by the way Marlboro.com has been improved, how we go to market has improved. So I think the team has done a really great job with Marlboro.
Vivien Azer – Cowen & Company:
That’s terrific. Thank you. In terms of the cigarette industry volume declines and I heard you loud and clear on the work that you’re doing on MST and I’m sure there is some cigarette analysis involved there as you think about kind of the cross elasticities of demand, but I know you guys also focus a lot on the health of the consumer. Can you give us just an update on how you’re seeing your consumer trending, in particular in light of lower gas prices?
Marty Barrington:
You’re talking about the economic conditions?
Vivien Azer – Cowen & Company:
Yes.
Marty Barrington:
We had in our 2014 plan that, while the US economy was improving that we assumed that it was not going to show up quite as strongly for our adult tobacco consumers. And I think that has proven to be the case throughout the year. Unemployment rates obviously are down, but they’re not down where they should be. Underemployment is down, but it’s not down to where it should be. And on those two measures in particular, our adult tobacco consumers over index. There is pretty tepid year-over-year wage gains, but then you do see the suits of other good economic activity. Housing starts are up, consumer confidence some months are up, and then we have seen lower gas prices, although that’s less of a factor in our view. So I think for 2014, while we’re encouraged and we hope that it gets traction, our continuing assumption is that our adult tobacco consumer is going to be under some pressure.
Vivien Azer – Cowen & Company:
That’s very helpful. And Howard, just one last one for you. As we think about the fourth quarter, anything that we should keep in mind in terms of SAB, because the SAB number came in higher than I have been anticipating given, I guess, the casino sale?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I think that’s – the only thing I would point out is that third quarter was impacted by an extra gain related to the sale of their casino business in Africa. And I think that’s the only thing I would point out from a SABMiller perspective.
Vivien Azer – Cowen & Company:
Terrific. Thank you very much.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of CLSA.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
Good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Good morning, Michael.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
When you give you market share updates, is that on the adjusted category numbers that you mentioned or on just the unadjusted sort of pure number?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I mean I think our market share comes from our syndicated panel that essentially measures market share at retail. So I think there is obviously a relationship between shipments and retail, but it really comes out of a difference system that we’ve invested a fair amount in to get an accurate read of the mainstream retail outlets.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
Okay, yes, that’s helpful. And do you have a sense of what – I guess, you’ve sighted the adjusted shipment category number, do you know what the retail number for the category is that you look at for the third quarter, just for context of what the share gain is against?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I don’t think we really look at it that way. If you think about it – when we look at our shipments, we’re shipping out to wholesale. And obviously when we read retail market share, there is a bit of space between our shipments to wholesale and what happens at retail. So that is why we provide both the actual and adjusted shipment numbers to give your perspective on that, as well as then going further downstream and providing you with retail share figures that allow you to understand how we’re doing in the overall retail market.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
Okay, that’s helpful. And then just looking back a little bit actually just for context. When you look at your 2009 market share loss of about a percentage point or slightly more, do you know – do you have an ability to estimate how much of that might have been related to your integration of UST as sort of a disruption, or was it in your view more related to economic pressures or trading down or other things like that?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, I’ll be honest with you. I’m a bit uncomfortable analyzing the 2009 numbers at this stage, but certainly if you want to have some conversation about 2009, you can speak to the IR group.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
Well, or I guess maybe let me put it in a different way. You have experienced with integration of your own that obviously are a major effort. How much of a distraction do you feel like that could have been in that particular timeframe I guess, or just in terms of focus or managing through that?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, I think our experience in the UST integration was that given the size and professionalism of our sales force, certainly there was some incremental work placed on the sales force when we took over UST, but remembering back to that time, I think it went pretty smoothly. So I don’t have a recollection that there were significant disruptions in the cigarette category related to that.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
Okay. That’s helpful context. And just last question on PMCC, obviously the finance assets is down pretty dramatically from where it would have been even just a couple of years ago. Is it still kind of your approach to opportunistic sales or is there some degree of flat-towing [ph] that the sales you think make the most sense to me have probably been done, or what’s kind of the run rate looking ahead? This quarter, the asset balance there didn’t change very much from 2Q. Is it leveled off or what should we expect looking ahead in that segment there?
Marty Barrington:
Yes. I think, as you know, we’re trying to wind that business down completely. And so essentially looking at the cash flow impact and the profit impact of selling assets in any given year, our bias is towards selling them if we can sell them for a reasonable financial outcome, but we’ve been in that mode for quite some time. So I would say that we are probably reaching a period where we’re going to see a slowdown in some of those asset sales. Certainly that is what is driving the negative year-over-year comparison at PMCC this year, compared to last year was, we had very good asset sales last year. Now that said, in the leasing business, there is a sweet spot which then becomes more favorable to sell assets in the life of the lease. And so at any given year, I think we do expect to have some asset sales that could potentially occur as we get closer to the end of some of those leases. So we’re managing through that, but I think the most important point was the one you made, which was the net finance receivable on that businesses come down tremendously. We’re now down below $2 billion, and so we’re well on our way to completely exiting that business.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
That’s helpful. Thank you very much.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling in Michael.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie Herzog – Wells Fargo:
Good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Hi Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog – Wells Fargo:
I have a follow-on question from an earlier one asked a little differently in terms of how you’re balancing your business in the short and long-term. Marty, as you mentioned you’re generating strong volume and pricing, and then your smokable margins have expanded quite a bit. So if you back out your other segment, which includes MarkTen, you would have reported double-digit EPS growth in the quarter. So I guess I’m trying to understand why you believe the e-cig or vapor category weren’t the levels spending right now and how big this opportunity can truly be in the long-term, and essentially how you’re balancing this versus rewarding shareholders right now?
Marty Barrington:
Yes. Good question, let me try to give you some context about how we think of that at the strategic level, and I think you and I have discussed this previously which is, we’ve tried to maximize our core business while we innovate for our future. And we have tremendous core businesses, we have the leading positions, we have the leading brands. We have high margins that generate enormous amounts of cash, most of which we give back to the shareholders through the dividend, periodic share repurchase. We keep those businesses relevant in growing by investing in them appropriately. I think that’s how to think about the core. However, we also know that consumers change and businesses change and markets change. And so you always have to be looking ahead about what you need to be doing today to be ready for tomorrow. That’s how we think about innovation and other categories for example heat-not-burn, which as you know, we have the license from PMI. As consumers evolve, we want to have products for them. We want them to be premium, we want them to branded, and of course we aspire to have the good margins that we do in our tobacco businesses today. The way to do that in our view is with discipline. You learn your way in, you do it wisely and you do it over time. And I think that you can see that’s the approach we’re trying to take in e-vapor. So I hope that context may be helpful about how we think about that.
Bonnie Herzog – Wells Fargo:
Very much. I appreciate that. And then speaking of heat-not-burn, the iQOS platform is being rolled out now in two countries like Philip Morris [ph] and then as you mentioned how access to this. Could you update us on the process and have you filed for potential equivalent, timeframes, where you’re at with this in terms of eventually rolling that out here in the US?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, I’d refer you to comments that PMI has made about this for further context, but obviously you know that the deal is we struck an arrangement with PMI, where we will sell them our e-vapor products for sale through their distribution network internationally and we continue to work with them on that and we’re excited about that. And then on heat-not-burn, we’re cooperating with PMI as it goes through the process at the Food and Drug Administration in pursuit of a reduced harm claim. You might expect that we would be working on ideas about how to commercialize that project when it becomes successful. These are longer term projects, but our strategy is to offer consumers alternatives for those who want them. And we’re very excited to be working with PMI and that I think it’s – I think they would say and I would certainly say it’s going quite well.
Bonnie Herzog – Wells Fargo:
Okay. And I just have one final quick question on MarkTen and the consumer behavior. How is it been, what do you think in terms of repeat purchases. We’ve seen maybe some share losses on a sequential basis in Nielson’s. So maybe you could address that. And then I’d be curious to hear your robust product pipeline behind MarkTen. You mentioned that. So how soon would you be able to roll-out your next generation products?
Marty Barrington:
Sure. So I’ll start I guess by talking about shares, and it’s just a word of caution in the e-vapor category. I think if you look back over the last three years, you’ve had at least five brands at one time or another have claimed share a leadership. And what in fact you see is a lot of dynamism among the shares as consumers continue to try products. You’ve heard us speak about this before. Consumers are continuing to shop for the product that they want in the e-vapor space. Brands have sort of come and gone and up and down and it continues to evolve. Our long-term aspiration is leadership in the category, which means we will offer consumers in this space, superior products. We will build brand equity and we’ll build share over time. With respect to MarkTen, we’re very happy with the start that we have. We believe we have a very good product. It’s differentiated by its technology, but there is no denying that consumers are continuing to shop for our products and others will continue to roll products out as we have them. I’m obviously not going to tip my hand about what’s coming, but I can tell you that Nu Mark has a lot of great ideas and we’re working very hard on a whole range of products to offer to consumers in this space.
Bonnie Herzog – Wells Fargo:
That makes sense. Thank you so much, Marty.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling Bonnie.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Nomura.
Owen Bennett – Nomura:
Good morning guys.
Marty Barrington:
Hi Owen.
Owen Bennett – Nomura:
Thanks for taking my question. I was just hoping for a bit more commentary on price mix in smokable, and I guess, I’m really just playing devil’s advocate on this one. Although strong in the quarter, it was below that of one of your competitors. I was just wondering if you were seeing any ongoing specific mixed pressures, especially as you continue to see strong share momentum with L&M [ph]? Thank you.
Marty Barrington:
Okay, thanks for your question. I wouldn’t characterize that way. I think again, when I look at the smokable performance for the quarter and certainly for the year-to-date, we’ve got income up 9% and margin growth and strong pricing realization and the volumes are below the estimated industry decline again. We look at this over time, but when you look at the year-to-date for PM USA in the smokable segment, it’s nothing short of an outstanding performance and we’re very happy with it.
Owen Bennett – Nomura:
Okay, thank you.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Chris Growe – Stifel Nicolaus:
Hi, good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Hi Chris.
Chris Growe – Stifel Nicolaus:
Hi. Just two quick questions if I could. I wanted to ask, you gave some data, I believe it was at the Back-To-School Conference about the vapor category and you have a better tracking mechanism for that. So I’m just curious in relation to the cigarette category. Have you seen any slowdown in vapor? Is that in part what’s driving better volumes in cigarettes, or do you have some other explanation for what has been a better category growth condition here in the quarter?
Marty Barrington:
Again Chris, if you look at it over time, we’ve got a model that we use, that’s a secular decline rate of about 2% to 3% and then you’ve got of course your pricing elasticities. And in our secular model includes adult consumers trying other kinds of products including vapor. So we don’t see anything remarkable there to call out.
Chris Growe – Stifel Nicolaus:
Okay. And then just one other question on MarkTen. In the way that product has gone or at least I’ve seen it, it’s within your cigarette shelf set. Is that what you expect for new products going forward, and we’d be careful talking about new products, but are you trying to fit those within your existing shelves that you are looking for space on the back counter and the counter at the [indiscernible]. So just curious how we should think about new products that reach the shelf?
Marty Barrington:
Yes, that’s an excellent question. I think that the merchandizing of innovative products into the traditional categories is going to have to be resolved over time. I think clearly in the short run, what you’re trying to do is you’re trying to get awareness of your product to the adult consumer at retail. And because PM USA has space that it could provide the Nu Mark on appropriate terms. That’s the approach we took. It will depend I suppose on how large the categories get to bay [ph]. What we would expect is for retailers to adjust their merchandizing approach and their scale with the size of the category and we’re working closely with retailers to try to help them in thinking through that. I think that’s the best way to think about it.
Chris Growe – Stifel Nicolaus:
Okay. Thank you for the time.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger of Morgan Stanley.
Matthew Grainger – Morgan Stanley:
Hi, good morning everyone.
Marty Barrington:
Hi Matt.
Matthew Grainger – Morgan Stanley:
Hi. So I have couple of questions. Marty, first just to revisit Vivien’s earlier question about the economic health of the smoker. You echoed what others in the industry have talked about this quarter with cigarette volumes decline – with the decline in cigarette volumes moderating from down 4% or 4.5% during the first half to down only perhaps 3.5% or a bit less in the third quarter. And you commented that you have not seen a material improvement in economic conditions or behavior among core smokers. So I’m just curious if it’s not macro-driven, what other factors would it play the most meaningful role in this sequential improvement?
Marty Barrington:
Well, I think there is two answers to it Matt. One is, actually when you look at the decline rates that we’re estimating for the quarter, its spot in the middle of the range that we’ve been estimating for some time now. So I don’t think it represents the deviation from curve as much as it represents a data point best understood over time. So I guess that’s the first thing I’d say. The second thing I’d say to be clear about the macro environment is that it simply is uneven. It clearly is improving at a macro level for the reasons I called out. It’s just that it’s uneven over time, and it also appears to be somewhat uneven in its distribution. And so the adult tobacco consumer is not participating in the recovery to the same degree in many instances, as is the general public. So we’ll have to see going forward, but I think that’s honestly the answer, which is, we’re trying to be mindful of what the macro environment is and in particular for our consumer set.
Matthew Grainger – Morgan Stanley:
Okay. But just to be clear, you wouldn’t necessarily attribute changes in cigarette volumes to sequential changes through the year in cross category dynamics or retailer working capital dynamics, anything along those lines?
Marty Barrington:
No, I don’t think we would.
Matthew Grainger – Morgan Stanley:
Okay. Thanks. And Howard just on SABMiller. Last quarter you addressed some of the speculation there and how you might evaluate cash transaction from the perspective of shareholders. Just to take the other side of that hypothetical. I’m just curious how you would assess the potential impact or attractiveness of taking on less than 20% stake in another publicly traded company in an equity transaction, and whether you felt, in that circumstance, it might be possible to justify the continuation of equity method accounting?
Howard Willard:
Yes, I think the answer to a detailed scenario is probably best answered in the moment when the details are available. I think our view though has been that we continue to view the SABMiller asset as an attractive asset that is contributed strongly to our earnings growth into cash flow through dividends. And at this point, our view hasn’t changed, which is we think it’s in the best interest of our shareholders to retain that asset, but as always, we’re doing a lot of analysis, we’re doing a lot of future scenario planning to make sure we’re prepared for whatever the future brings. And I think we’re open-minded, but we continue to view the asset as a positive contributor to the business.
Matthew Grainger – Morgan Stanley:
Okay, understood. I had to give it a shot. You answered it last quarter. And then lastly, just on the interest expense. I think you exercised the may-call [ph] provision on one of your outstanding bonds during the quarter. Should we expect to see some sequential favorability on interest expense, and do you see additional refinancing opportunities going forward over the next six to 12 months?
Howard Willard:
Yes, we did called some bonds. It was about $300 million worth of UST debt. It was actually the only debt we have that wasn’t at the parent level. And so we thought to clean that up, not only helped our maturity towers, but had some compliance in some operational benefits. It will have some positive impact on interest in this quarter. It actually was – the impact will really be felt in the fourth quarter, and certainly we’ll have some impact next year, but the scale of that was actually quite small compared to some of the activity we’ve done in the past. And I think as indicated by this transaction, we’re always looking at how to best manage our debt load. And I think we’re opportunistic going forward, but I have to say that I think the significant activity that’s occurred over the last couple of years is probably going to represent the biggest opportunity there.
Matthew Grainger – Morgan Stanley:
Okay, thanks everyone.
Marty Barrington:
Matt, I’m glad you joined us. Thank you.
Matthew Grainger – Morgan Stanley:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Marascia of Capitol Securities.
Steve Marascia – Capitol Securities Management:
Good morning everyone.
Marty Barrington:
Good morning.
Steve Marascia – Capitol Securities Management:
Two question. Can you guys, sort of, outline your plans for expanding into the Eastern US, and what do you foresee as being the total amount of retail outlets you might like to be in as you complete the – or as you move into the Eastern area of the United States?
Marty Barrington:
Sure. We are expanding into the Eastern United States. That’s been the plan. We’re going to be national. We hope to have that completed by the fourth quarter. I am sure that we can provide you with an estimate of the total stores. I just don’t have that in front of me. If you’d like I’ll have someone give it to you.
Steve Marascia – Capitol Securities Management:
Okay, thank you very much.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
Media representatives are now invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Sarah Knakmuhs for closing remarks.
Sarah Knakmuhs:
Thank you everyone for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sarah Knakmus - Vice President, Investor Relations Marty Barrington - Chairman and CEO Howard Willard - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Michael Lavery - CLSA Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs Vivien Azer - Cowen & Company Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo Chris Growe - Stifel David Adelman - Morgan Stanley Michael Felberbaum - Associated Press
Operator:
Good day. And welcome to the Altria Group 2014 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Altria’s management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmus, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, ma’am.
Sarah Knakmus:
Good morning and thank you for joining us. We are here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria’s Chairman and CEO; and Howard Willard, Altria’s CFO to talk about Altria’s 2014 business results for the second quarter and the first half. During our call today unless otherwise stated, we are comparing results to the same period in 2013. Earlier today we issued a press release regarding our second quarter results. For a detailed review of Altria’s business results, please review the earnings release on our website at altria.com. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projection of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis, which exclude items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release and are available on our website. Now I’ll turn the call over to Marty.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks, Sarah. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call. In the first half of 2014, Altria delivered adjusted diluted EPS growth of 5.2% and we made good progress against our full year plans. Our company’s leading premium brands and the strength of our diverse business model continue to deliver value for shareholders. Here are the highlights for the second quarter and first half of 2014. The smokable product segment delivered adjusted operating company’s income growth of 3.6% in the second quarter and 4.9% in the first half, while maintaining modest retail share growth on Marlboro. In the second quarter, Marlboro achieved excellent retail share of 44 points, up 0.3 from last year. For the first half Marlboro share grew 0.1 to 43.8 share points. Adjusted operating company’s income margins also increased both in the quarter and the first half with pricing as a key driver. So year-to-date, the smokable product segments performance has been strong. In smokeless, in the first half of 2014, USSTC focused on strengthening the Skoal value equation in part by better managing price gaps on Skoal Classic. On a sequential basis Skoal’s retail share was unchanged versus the first quarter. Copenhagen and Skoal delivered second quarter retail share of 51.1 share points, up 0.4 from last year and the highest combined share since we acquired UST. For the first half, Copenhagen and Skoal delivered combined retail share of 51 points, an increase of 0.3. Operating company’s income grew by 5.6% in the second quarter and 6.5% in the first half, while operating company’s income margins expanded to 66.6% and 64.5%, respectively. Our smokeless business continues to perform well in the competitive environment in line with it strategies. Turning to innovative products, Nu Mark began the national expansion of MarkTen e-vapor products in June in the Western half of the U.S. MarkTen achieved strong distribution in over 60,000 stores. These stores account for more than 70% of cigarette industry volume in the Western U.S. where MarkTen is distributed. Nu Mark is also making good progress integrating green smoke into its business, starting with a well-established supply chain that green smoke adds to Nu Mark. Altria continued to reward shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Altria paid shareholders almost $1 billion in dividends in the quarter and nearly $2 billion in the first half. As of July 18th, our annualized dividend yield of 4.6% surpassed the S&P 500 yield of 2% and the 10-year treasury yield of 2.5%. We expect to return a target payout of 80% of adjusted diluted EPS in the form of dividends. In the second quarter, Altria repurchased $132 million of its common stock at an average price of $40.72. We expect to complete our current $1 billion share repurchase program by the end of the third quarter of 2014. Further, Altria's Board recently authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value. We expect to complete this new program by the end of 2015. Timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors, and of course, dividends and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our Board. Based on our results so far and expectations for the remainder of 2014, we are narrowing guidance for both adjusted and reported diluted EPS. We now expect to deliver adjusted diluted EPS growth of 7% to 9% in a range of $2.54 to $2.59 off an adjusted base of $2.38 per share in 2013. We also expect to achieve full-year reported diluted EPS in the range of $2.54 to $2.59. We expect stronger adjusted diluted EPS growth in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter, driven by various factors, including lower fourth quarter costs in the smokable products segment due to the end of the quota by our payments and a significantly lower fourth quarter effective tax rate compared to the year ago period resulting from our 2013 debt tender offer. So, in all, we are pleased with the progress we're making against our strategies and financial goals and the momentum we are carrying into the second half of the year. Howard, will now provide additional details on the quarter and the first six months.
Howard Willard:
Thank you, Marty. Good morning, everyone. Altria grew second quarter adjusted diluted EPS by 4.8%, primarily driven by higher adjusted operating company’s income in the smokable and smokeless products segments, lower interest and other debt expense and fewer shares outstanding. These factors were partially offset by the investments we're making in innovative products and comparatively lower operating company’s income in the financial services business. As Marty mentioned, the smokable product segments adjusted operating company’s income grew 3.6% to $1.8 billion in the second quarter and 4.9% to $3.3 billion in the first half. In both periods higher pricing was the driver, partially offset by lower cigarettes shipment volume. As anticipated in the second quarter, the trade reduced inventory levels they build during the first quarter, after adjusting for trade inventory fluctuation and other factors, PM USA estimates that it’s second quarter and first half cigarette shipment volume declined approximately 4% and that industry volume declined approximately 4.5% for both periods. PM USA grew total retail share by 0.3 to 51 share points in the second quarter and 0.2 to 50.8 share points in the first half of 2014. In addition to Marlboro’s strong retail share, L&M continued to grow retail share despite declines in the industry's discount share. John Middleton also contributed to our solid first half smokable segment results. Middleton cigars shipment volume increased 11.1% in the second quarter and 6% for the first six months supported by Black & Mild in the tipped segment and the expansion of Royal Comfort in the untipped segment. While the competitive environment remains challenging, Black & Mild’s retail share was essentially flat for the first half of the year. In smokeless, operating company’s income increased 5.6% to $285 million in the second quarter and 6.5% to $524 million for the first half of 2014. Through the second quarter USSTC and PM USA achieved 55.1 share of the category, benefiting in part by continued momentum on Copenhagen Long Cut Wintergreen. Changes to Skoal's promotional strategy resulted in trade inventory shifts that negatively affected smokeless shipment volume in the first half of the year. After adjusting for trade inventory changes and calendar differences, USSTC and PM USA estimate that their smokeless product shipment volume grew 3.5% in both the second quarter and the first half, and the smokeless category volume grew approximately 4.5% over the past 12 months. In the wine segment, operating company’s income was up 12% in the second quarter and 11.1% in the first half of 2014. Shipment increased 1.9% in the quarter and 1.5% in the first half. In both the quarter and the half strong volume performance by Chateau Ste. Michelle and 14 Hands was mostly offset by lower shipments of Columbia Crest and other brands. That wraps up our operating results. Marty and I will now take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, let me cover a few second quarter housekeeping items. Marlboro's price gap versus the lowest effective price cigarette was 33%. Marlboro’s net pack price was $5.93, up $0.15 from the second quarter of 2013. The lowest effective price cigarette was $4.47, up $0.17 from the second quarter of 2013. The cigarette discount segment retail share was 24.8%, down from 25.2% in the second quarter of 2013. The estimated weighted average cigarette state excise tax at the end of the second quarter was $1.48 per pack, up $0.06 from the end of the second quarter of 2013. Wholesale inventory changes are one factor. PM USA uses to estimate adjusted PM USA and industry volumes. PM USA estimates that for 2014, wholesale inventories were approximately 2.1 billion units at the end of the second quarter and 2.5 billion units at the end of the first quarter. Last year PM USA's wholesale inventories were estimated be approximately 2.2 billion units at the end of the second quarter and 2.3 million units at the end of the first quarter. PM USA estimates that for 2014 cigarette industry wholesale inventory levels were 4.8 billion units at the end of the second quarter and 5.5 billion units at the end of the first quarter. Last year, we estimate that wholesale inventory levels were 5.6 billion units at the end of both the second and first quarter. Copenhagen's price gap versus the leading discount brand was 31%. Copenhagen's retail price was $4.10, up $0.06 from the second quarter of 2013. The price of the leading discount brand was $3.12, up $0.14 from the second quarter of 2013. CapEx was $33 million and ongoing depreciation and amortization was $50 million. For the first half, CapEx was $60 million and ongoing depreciation and amortization was a $100 million. Operator, do we have any questions?
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of CLSA.
Michael Lavery - CLSA:
Good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Good morning, Michael.
Michael Lavery - CLSA:
I wanted to just actually talk about a hypothetical a little bit and just in terms of looking at SAB and if somebody were interested in trying to buying that asset. Can you just help us understand a couple of things? One, first in the mechanics, is it right to assume that every shareholder, yourself included, would be treated the same so that for instance you couldn't get shares and somebody else cash? And then especially if a cash deal is sort of the proposal, how do you think about what would make it interesting for you in terms of -- do you just look at accretion, is it -- measure economic profit differences or how do you think about the valuation creation or potentially dilution that comes with that?
Howard Willard:
Sure. This is Howard. I think any acquisition is going to be governed by U.K. Takeover law, which has a number of protections in place to try and ensure that the shareholders are treated fairly. And so I think at the highest level that would certainly govern the transaction. I think with regard to a cash deal, I think we would evaluate that the way we would any potential transaction for SAB and we would evaluate it through the eyes of the Altria shareholder and determine whether or not we thought that provided significant enough incremental value to warrant giving up the strong performance that we’ve gotten on an ongoing basis from SABMiller. And I think that we would vote our shares based on that view.
Michael Lavery - CLSA:
Okay. That’s helpful. Thanks. And then just one last question, smokeless, at least I think I do it on kind of the servings equivalent, which is loose, but it’s around 7% of your volumes and 14% of EBIT. Certainly, those margins are fantastic. E-cigarettes are sort of getting all the attention on the margins these days, but with two very different margin profiles in those businesses, and of course different potential long-term opportunities. How do you think about allocating resources or making those investments in terms of if those compete for resources with each other at all?
Marty Barrington:
Yeah, that’s a good question. I mean, we allocate resources obviously based on the core businesses that we have today mentioned one which is smokeless, of course we have smokable and wine and we obviously have strength in our core businesses. They are terrific businesses with leading positions, great shares, great margins, and so forth and so on. With respect to innovative products, the way that we’re going about that Michael is to have a disciplined approach to innovating our way forward. You saw that for example about the way we handle test markets in Indiana and Arizona before we determine to do a national launch. So it's a little early. As everyone keeps saying to know about margins in the e-vapor business, but we’re focused on the adult tobacco consumer and if they're interested in these kind of innovative products, we want to make sure that we’re developing positions there. And in any category which emerges we intend to be the market leader.
Michael Lavery - CLSA:
That’s great. Thanks very much.
Marty Barrington:
Thank you for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Marty Barrington:
Good morning, Judy.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs:
Marty, obviously we have the major announcement last week which if the deal does go through potentially changes the competitive landscape with two of your competitors getting bigger and then obviously Imperial getting bigger in the U.S. market as well. So just wanted to get your thoughts on what you think the competitive implications might be and how you are thinking about your strategy going forward in maybe a different competitive environment.
Marty Barrington:
Well, thank you for your question. As I am sure you can understand, I am not going to comment on a transaction that’s been proposed by others. I think the questions here are best directed to them. But I can tell you that at Altria, we’re the market leader today, we would be a market leader after any transaction has been proposed. We are really focused on maintaining our market leadership, that’s what we told our organization, and that’s how we’re thinking about.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs:
Okay. That's fair. And then maybe just in terms of the cigarette industry trends, Marty. I guess this year the industry declining of sort of 4.5% probably a little bit worse than what we’ve seen and then maybe the pricing at the same time, though, is getting better. So, is that how you kind of characterize the environment, maybe the overall volume is a little bit softer, but the industry is getting actually pretty healthy pricing and the competitive dynamics are a little bit more rational and that’s kind of the balance that we’re seeing at this point?
Marty Barrington:
Yeah. So let’s talk about those in turn. Good questions both. The volume, our estimate of course is 4.5%. I would counsel folks not to over read one estimate in one quarter. If you go back and you look at the historical line rates say for the last three years, actually you see an average rate over that period of about 3.5% and it’s been as high as 4, it’s been as low as 3. So they bounce around a little bit which is why we always say and believe that we should read them over time. So it is higher at 4, 5, but I wouldn’t over read again one estimate. Certainly PM USA had very nice pricing realization. In fact, it’s having quite a strong first half. Its income is up nearly 5%. Its margin is growing. Price realization is strong. So I would tell you that at least from our perspective I think what PM USA is doing is spot on strategy. We are trying to maximize the income. We are trying to keep modest share momentum on Marlboro and I think that the dials that they have been at PM USA in the first half have really worked very, very well.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs:
Okay. And lastly, Howard, just in terms of your guidance change, the low end's coming up by $0.02, what’s driving that change?
Howard Willard:
I think probably the biggest driver of that is the performance we’ve had in the first half. We feel like we’ve had a good performance in the first half. Our strategies have been progressing quite nicely. And frankly the risk of anything upsetting those strategies in the first half has kind of passed now and so we feel like we’re in a position to kind of narrow the range that we think we can hit for the year.
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs:
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Marty Barrington:
Judy, thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Nomura.
Marty Barrington:
Hello, Owen, are you there?
Operator:
It seems that line has disconnected. Your next question comes from the line of David Adelman of Morgan Stanley.
Marty Barrington:
Hello, David, are you there? Operator, could we check our connections please to make sure people are in the queue?
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen & Company.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Company:
Hi, good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Hi, Vivien.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Company:
My first question has to do with Marlboro. Clearly the share momentum is good with share gains accelerating sequentially into the second quarter. I know you guys don't comment on kind of specific lines of the Marlboro brand family that drive outside performance. But if you could offer any color at all in terms of the share gains, that would be helpful.
Marty Barrington:
You are right, Vivien, we don’t offer specific insights into the lines of the Marlboro business. But sure I think that what you see is that the Marlboro franchise overall is performing very well. Since we put in the Marlboro architecture and in particular with the new platform of Marlboro Black which has been quite successful, what you see is that Marlboro really has continued to perform very well. I think that speaks to the strength of the architecture. It’s a big brand, and we have now opened it up I think to the possibilities that it has in terms of marketing slightly different lead to different segments within the franchise, attracting competitive smokers while all the time being faithful to Marlboro’s positioning. And I think that’s what we’re seeing play out in the marketplace.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Company:
Fair enough. Very early days on MarkTen to be sure, but any kind of initial color that you would like to offer in the first month of the national expansion?
Marty Barrington:
Well, we’re pretty encouraged. It is early, but we have achieved strong distribution. It’s now in 60,000 stores which is quite a lot in a short period of time. It’s been enthusiastically received by the trend, Vivien. And as you know, we have a lot of confidence in that product. So we’re very, very pleased to be able to roll this out nationally and really moving eastward as the year goes on. But we’re off to a good start is what I would say.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Company:
Okay. Fair enough. And last thing, I know you guys weren't a party to the lawsuit against TPSAC and the resolution that was announced yesterday. But do you have any comment on how you think that might impact the FDA's view of menthol and the science as they publish their report?
Marty Barrington:
I haven’t read it yet. I just saw the press reports but I would say that the press reports are consistent with the position that our regulated companies took with the FDA, really for the last four years. Our position was composition of the TPSAC was flawed by appointment of people that had conflicts of interest. We thought it was inconsistent with the statute and we have been calling on FDA as you know if you look at the filings that are available on our website consistently to try to correct that. So I'm sure that we’re trying to be a constructive partner at FDA but it's important for the integrity of the system that everybody play by the rules. So I'm sure FDA is assessing what it will do. And I haven't seen anything from them yet this morning.
Vivien Azer - Cowen & Company:
Fair enough. Thank you very much.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.
Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo:
Good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Good morning Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo:
I have a follow-on question on MarkTen. So you mentioned you have distribution over 60,000 retail points since you began the national rollout. So how quickly do you anticipate getting to full distribution? And then it seems like the focus right now is expanding the distribution. So I’d like to hear how big of a priority technology and innovation are for you?
Marty Barrington:
Good question. So our plan as we described previously is to have a rolling launch. We started that in June in the 25 states in the western part of the country. Obviously, as you’re building a new brand and you’re building capacity, you want to roll this out. Overtime, you want to be cognizant of having product in the store, so the people could get it, no out of stocks and the like. So we will be rolling eastward as we go through the summer and into the fall and that's how we’re thinking about the distribution. Distribution is important but it's not the only thing and you’ve touched on a couple of others, obviously. I continue to be very encouraged by the product development pipeline I see out of Nu Mark in e-vapor space. So as everyone knows, I know, and many have written that the consumer continues to move around unsurprisingly in a new category about what they want out of these products. And so we are hard at divining those consumer insights and having products available for them. So while we’re excited about MarkTen, I don't think it's last thing that anyone should expect either from us or others.
Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo:
Okay. That’s helpful. And then I had a quick question on your SG&A expense in the quarter. It was up 21% year-over-year and was almost 14% of sales. So I guess I am assuming this is primarily due to the rollout of MarkTen. But could you talk about any other potential factors for this being high and then really how we should think about your SG&A going forward?
Howard Willard:
Hi Bonnie. This is Howard.
Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo:
Hi.
Howard Willard:
I think certainly one of the drivers in the quarter was as you pointed out the rollout of MarkTen. Given that this was the quarter that we did the western launch, that was an impact. But I will also say to you that historically you’ve seen some movement quarter-to-quarter in the amount of SG&A expense. And we tend to budget that on a full-year basis. So I think that you will get a better idea of the trend by looking at that on the full-year basis. And I think well certainly the innovative product space is going to have an impact. We continue to have quite a focus on reducing costs in the core and you should continue to see us focus quite sharply on that. But that’s going to be probably reveal itself on a longer-term basis looking at annual term.
Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo:
Okay. And then if I may, I just had one final question, a little bit of a follow-up. And given the expected changing industry dynamics, maybe you could remind us of your priority in terms of how you are going to continue to strike the optimal balance between growing market share and defending your turf while trying to maximize profitability?
Marty Barrington:
Okay. I’m not going to comment with regard to any proposed transactions but I will tell you I guess two things, one that the smokeable segment remains the same. We’re trying to maximize income while making sure that we have modest momentum on Marlboro. That's been winning strategy for decades and that is not going to change. The other thing I just would observe is that change is constant in business and we had Altria prepare for all scenarios. And I think that's the way to think about it which is we’re prepared to compete today, we’re prepared to compete tomorrow.
Bonnie Herzog - Wells Fargo:
All right. Thank you for that.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.
Chris Growe - Stifel:
Hi. Good morning.
Marty Barrington:
Hi Chris. Good morning.
Chris Growe - Stifel:
Hi. I just had two questions for you, if I could. I just wanted to get a little better sense around the fourth quarter expectations. I think we have known all along it is going to be a pretty strong quarter for you, with the MSA cost reductions and as well as the tax rate decline year-over-year. I don't know if maybe, Howard, can give a little more color on the tax rate decline. Is that still expected to be down? I think you used the word significant in the press release. I want to get maybe a little more flavor for how much it could be. But then just understand your thoughts on MSA cost savings and any change in your view, given the competitive conditions in that category. It looks like a lot of that could come to the bottom line?
Marty Barrington:
Sure. I will ask Howard to comment on that for you, Chris.
Howard Willard:
Sure. I think we’ve communicated that our full year tax rate is expected to be about 35%. And if you compare that to the back half of last year, you’ll see that that’s significantly lower in the fourth quarter. I think last years tax rate was a little in excess of 37%. So that gives you an idea going from 37% to 35%, that’s a pretty significant impact. And then with regard to the FETRA payments discontinuing in the fourth quarter, on an annual basis our FETRA payments had been about $400 million. So on a quarter’s impact, that would be estimated to be about a $100 million.
Chris Growe - Stifel:
Okay. And if I could ask a question and thanks in advance for the inventory information you gave today was very good. I just want to get a sense of where you think the -- your inventory levels are and perhaps for the category are currently, just a good kind of base case, based on the numbers you have given. So in that they are down a lot year-over-year in this -- for the industry, is that considered a low level or is that a level that you think is pretty normalized going forward?
Marty Barrington:
If I would say at the end of the second quarter, I mean, the one thing to remember always is that they tend to wash themselves out over the year, Chris. So they do go in and out a little bit for the quarter, but at least for PM USA, the inventory levels tend to wash themselves out over the year. The other thing to understand is as industry cigarette volume does come down over time, you would expect for wholesale inventories to come down with them. But I don't think there's anything particular to call out about ending inventories in the second quarter.
Chris Growe - Stifel:
Okay. Thank you for the time.
Marty Barrington:
Thanks for calling.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Adelman of Morgan Stanley.
David Adelman - Morgan Stanley:
Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me?
Marty Barrington:
Hi. David, I lost you there, glad you called back?
David Adelman - Morgan Stanley:
Okay. Great. Thanks, Marty. A couple of quick things for me. First, out of curiosity, given the prospect of real competitive change amongst your competitors in the U.S. cigarette market, going into the prospect of that transaction closing, or those transactions closing and then the subsequent aftermath. Are there particular strategies to try to be opportunistic? Could there be some disruption that you have already planned for or even starting to implement?
Marty Barrington:
Guess what I would say David is what I said, one or twice already this morning is that I'm not going to comment on the transaction that’s been proposed by others. What we do at Altria is we focus on our business. We’re the market leader today. We have the leading positions to leading brands. I think superior infrastructure. I would expect for all of that to obtain. It is true that the competitive environment changes and you take that when you said strategy and it will be unsurprising to you to know that Altria has examined lots of scenarios over time to examine how best we might compete. So all that work has been done, but I think it's both premature and inappropriate for me to say what those might be.
David Adelman - Morgan Stanley:
Okay. Second question. If Lorillard and Reynolds do combine as planned and are successful in achieving the cost synergies that they envision, that combined company would have per pack controllable costs that are considerably lower than where PM USA's per pack costs are today. That company would be smaller than you are and it would have a more diverse brand portfolio than you currently have. And I am curious, if they are successful in achieving that, would that cause you to sort of take a fresh look at your overall cost structure? Do you think that that would indicate that there are further opportunities to make sizable cost reductions at PM USA?
Marty Barrington:
David, I admire your persistence and I'm sure you'll appreciate my answer, which is I’m not going to comment on the transaction by others. But I would say this, we look at our cost all the time. And you’ve seen where PM USA is in terms of its controllable cost. And I don't think anybody should have reason to think that we won’t continue to have that kind of focus on controlling our cost. It’s part of the algorithm for growth.
David Adelman - Morgan Stanley:
Okay. And then, lastly, a question about the -- during this quarter the price vertical was reinstated. And I am curious as a result of that, was there any change in the policy or the timing and the magnitude of intercompany cash, cash flows from PM USA to Altria?
Howard Willard:
Hey, David, I really don’t think it had any impact. I mean, we continue to have a strategy to address the reinstatement of that verdict and we've been managing our businesses much the way we have over the last several quarters.
David Adelman - Morgan Stanley:
Okay. Thank you.
Marty Barrington:
David, thanks for calling back in.
Operator:
We now invite the media to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Michael Felberbaum of the Associated Press.
Michael Felberbaum - Associated Press:
Good morning. I’m curious as far as the MarkTen e-vapor product go. How do you see Altria’s ability to become a market leader in that category when the company is kind of the last of the majors to enter the category on a national level? And what differentiates your product that will help that growth?
Marty Barrington:
Sure. Thank you for your question. I would say the following. One is, it’s very important to remember that the e-vapor category is just really beginning, it's emerging, and it’s very early days. There is very little brand equity that has been built by anyone. The products continue to change over time. So I think the idea that the category somehow fully developed and we’re late to the game is not the right way to look at it in our view. I would say the second thing that gives us confidence in our ability to move to market leadership in the e-vapor category is the fact that we are the market leader in every category in which we compete virtually. So whether it’s cigarettes or smokeless or a wonderful wine company, what we've done is we've built terrific brands with superior products and satisfied adults in a way to allow us to build our businesses. So that's how we’re thinking about it. This is a business we’re in. These are the consumers that we set out to satisfy and if consumers are interested in e-vapor products, we want to be the best at it.
Michael Felberbaum - Associated Press:
Thank you.
Marty Barrington:
Thank you for your question.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) Thank you. At this time I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmus for closing remark.
Sarah Knakmus:
Thank you everyone for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up question, please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today’s conference. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sarah Knakmus – VP, IR Martin Barrington – Chairman and CEO Howard Willard – EVP and CFO
Analysts:
Owen Bennett – Nomura David Adelman – Morgan Stanley Nik Modi – RBC Capital Markets Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs Bonnie Herzog – Wells Fargo Chris Gowe – Stifel Michael Lavery – CLSA
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2014 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today’s, call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Altria’s management and the question-and-answer session. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. [Operator Instructions] Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sarah Knakmus, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead ma’am.
Sarah Knakmus:
Thank you. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We are here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria’s Chairman and CEO; and Howard Willard, Altria’s CFO to talk about Altria’s results for the first quarter of 2014. During our call today unless otherwise stated, results are being compared to the same period in 2013. Earlier today we issued a press release regarding our first quarter results. For a detailed review of Altria’s business results please review the earnings release on our website at altria.com. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projection of future results. And we direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today’s earnings release to review various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with the U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis which exclude items that affects the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings press release and are available on our website. Now I will turn the call over to Marty.
Martin Barrington:
Thank you Sarah. Good morning everyone and thanks for joining our call. Altria continued to make excellent progress against its key strategies in the first quarter of 2014. Our maximizing our core premium tobacco businesses over the long-term and making disciplined investments to grow new income streams with innovative products. Altria grew 2014 first quarter adjusted diluted EPS by 5.6% behind the strong performance from our smokeless product segment and growth in our smokeless product segment. Lower financing costs also contributed to adjusted diluted EPS growth in the quarter. So we’re off to a good start against our full year objectives. Here are the highlights from the quarter. Our smokeless products segment continued to deliver against its strategy of maximizing income while maintaining modest share momentum on Marlboro over time. The segment produced strong adjusted operating company’s income growth of 6.4% and expanded its adjusted operating company’s income margin primarily through higher pricing. PM USA’s 2014 first quarter, reported shipment volume decreased 2.5% primarily due to the industries decline partially offset by changes in trade inventories and retail share gains. PM USA’s income and volume performance benefited from modestly higher wholesale inventories compared to the same period last year, though we expect inventory levels to moderate as we move through the year. Marlboro continues to be strong at 43.8 share points, larger than the next 10 brands combined. PM USA successfully grew Marlboro’s retail share behind investments in the Marlboro architecture and grew its total share of the cigarette category driven by Marlboro and L&M in the discount segment. Turning to smokeless products, the segment grew first quarter operating company’s income by 7.75% primarily through higher volume. The segment also grew Copenhagen and Skoal’s combined volume and retail share behind another strong quarter for Copenhagen Long Cut Wintergreen, which now has posted 14 consecutive quarters of retail share gains. During the first quarter USSTC began implementing strategies to enhance Skoal’s equity and carefully manage Skoal Classic price gaps in select geographies. These strategies including changes to Skoal’s promotional plan resulted in some retail inventory movements that negatively impacted USSTC’s first quarter shipment volume. While these short-term dynamics also may impact the segments second quarter results, USSTC’s strategy should strengthen the brand over the long-term and we’re encouraged by the early results. This strong performance by our core tobacco businesses was partially offset by comparatively lower gains on asset sales at Philip Morris Capital Corporation and lower earnings from our equity investment in SABMiller, primarily due to gains from common stock, issuances in the first quarter of 2013. Moving to innovator products, Nu Mark continues to make excellent progress against its long-term goal of achieving e-vapor leadership. The company is on track to begin its rolling national launch of MarkTen in June. And earlier this month Nu Mark completed its acquisition of Green Smoke adding significant e-vapor experience, broadening Nu Mark’s product offerings and strengthening its supply chain capabilities. We’re happy to welcome Green Smoke’s talented employees to our team. And of course Altria continues to focus on returning large amounts of cash to shareholders. During the first quarter, Altria paid $957 million in dividends and purchased shares valued at approximately $272 million. So to start off we’re pleased with our first quarter performance and we’re continuing to focus on our key strategies, strong consistent results for the long-term. Altria reaffirms its guidance for 2014 full year adjusted diluted EPS to be in a range of $2.52 to $2.59, representing a growth rate of 6% to 9% from an adjusted diluted EPS base of $2.38 in 2013. We expect stronger adjusted diluted EPS growth in the second half of the year compared to the first half driven by various factors including lower fourth quarter costs in the smokable products segment due to the end of the quota by our payments and a significantly lower fourth quarter tax rate compared to the year-ago period resulting from our 2013 debt tender offer. I’ll turn things over to Howard who will discuss Altria’s business results in more detail.
Howard Willard III:
Thank you Marty, good morning everyone. As Marty mentioned our smokable products segment delivered strong first quarter results. The segment grew adjusted operating company’s income by 6.4% to over $1.5 billion and expanded its adjusted operating company’s income margin by 2.2 percentage points to 44.1%. Adjusted operating company’s income growth was primarily driven by higher pricing, partially offset by lower volume. The smokable product segments reported operating company’s income declined 20.3% primarily due to the NPM adjustment settlement in the first quarter of 2013 and lower volume partially offset by higher pricing. After adjusting for changes in trade inventories PM USA estimates that its first quarter domestic cigarette shipment volume declined approximately 3.5% less than the category decline rate which PM USA estimates was about 4%. PM USA grew Marlboro’s wealth share by 2/10s of a percentage point to 43.8% and increased its total category retail share by 2/10s of a percentage point behind gains from Marlboro and L&M in the discount segment. These gains were partially offset by share losses on other portfolio brands. In cigars Middleton grew Black & Mild’s first quarter retail share by 3/10s of a percentage point. Our shipment volume was essentially flat. Our smokeless product segment grew operating company’s income by 7.7% to almost $240 million driven by the higher volume and higher pricing partially offset by increased promotional spending. The segment also expanded its operating company’s income margin by 1.1 percentage points to 62.1%. USSTC and PM USA grew combined reported domestic smokeless products shipped volume by 5.9% in the first quarter primarily due to volume growth for Copenhagen partially offset by declines for Skoal. The segments first quarter reported volume benefited from an extra shipping day, it was partially offset by changes in trade inventories. After adjusting for calendar differences and changes in trade inventories USSTC and PM USA estimate that their combined domestic smokeless product shipment volume increased approximately 4% for the quarter. Our smokeless products category volume grew at approximately 5.5% over the last 12 months. USSTC grew Copenhagen’s and Skoal’s combined first quarter volume by 6.3%. USSTC also grew Copenhagen and Skoal’s combined retail share by 2/10’s of a percentage point to 50.8% driven by Copenhagen. Turning to innovative products Nu Mark continues to use its two MarkTen e-cigarettes test markets to refine the brand value equation. For example Nu Mark has experimented the different tools for creating awareness in trial in Arizona. While brand shares continue to move over time as manufacturers change promotion levels. MarkTen remain the leading e-vapor brand in Arizona during the first quarter. Nu Mark’s test markets are providing valuable insights that we used to compete for category leadership over the long-term. In the wine segment, Ste. Michelle grew first quarter operating company’s income by 10% primarily driven by improved premium mix. Ste. Michelle’s wine shipment volume increased 1.1% primarily driven by increased distribution of 14 Hands, partially offset by changes in trade inventories. That wraps up our operating results. Marty and I will now take your questions while the calls are being compiled let me cover a few first quarter housekeeping items. Marlboro’s price gap versus the lowest effective cigarette was 33%. Marlboro’s net pack price was $5.91 up from $5.80 in the first quarter of 2013. The lowest effective price cigarette was $4.43 up $0.10 from the first quarter of 2013. The cigarette discount segment’s retail share was 25.1% down from 25.5% in the first quarter of 2013. The estimated weighted average cigarette state excise tax at the end of the first quarter was $1.48 per pack up $0.06 cents from the end of the first quarter of 2013. Copenhagen’s price gap versus the leading discount brand was 32%. Copenhagen’s retail price was $4.09 dollars up from $4.07 in the first quarter of 2013. The price of the leading discount brand was $3.10 up $0.11 from the first quarter of 2013. CapEx was $27 million and ongoing depreciation and amortization was $50 million. Operator do we have any questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Nomura.
Owen Bennett – Nomura:
Couple of questions please. And firstly I was just wondering if you’ve got any comment on the pending deeming regulation announcement it’s been in news article this morning and how you expect this to impact both your e-cigarette and cigar growth. And then secondly obviously you had a very strong margin performance in the quarter particularly in smokeless. I was just wondering what was driving this and how we can expect margins to play out into the rest of the year and ignoring fourth quarter release from the tobacco file closure. Thank you.
Martin Barrington:
Thanks for calling in. I don’t have a comment on the deeming because I haven’t read them yet. I guess the release – even as we’re on the call here so I’ve read only the press reports this morning and I’d like to read them before I comment on them. With respect to margins you’re right to point out that we did have good margin performance, we had a growth in smokeless, growth in the smokeless and that’s all consistent with our strategies in the core tobacco business which is to grow our income in smokeless maximize our income in the smokeless segment. And then to grow our income to volume growth in smokeless so I don’t know how you want to say more a quarter –
Howard Willard III:
No I might think, I think certainly in the first quarter we had 3.8% revenue growth for tax basis in smokeless. And that was a strong driver in the first quarter. And I think you said it’s consistent with our strategy maximizing profitability.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Adelman of Morgan Stanley.
David Adelman – Morgan Stanley:
Marty two things I wanted to ask you first the comment about faster second-half earnings-per-share growth and the alluding to the absent of the quarter buyout costs in the fourth quarter. That obviously only flatters your profitability if the pricing would have more or less be as it would have been otherwise. In other words do you or the industry collectively promote that away, it wouldn’t have that benefit. So implicating what you’re saying about the outlook for the fourth quarter is it your intent and hope to capture at least some of that net cost reduction benefit?
Martin Barrington:
Well I think it’s consistent with what we said before when we talked about quarter which is if you’re trying to maximize your income in the smokeless segment, you obviously want to take every opportunity you can to do that and that’s how we’re thinking about that.
David Adelman – Morgan Stanley:
Okay and then that’s a good takeaway to my second question which is to talk about pricing and your attitude and approach to pricing and the smokeless business Marty because the positive during the quarter, last year profits have been growing, 7% that’s not shabby but the really hasn’t been any net pricing in the last couple years. I mean do aspire to get to a point and a place where you can add to volume growth with net pricing. And what’s holding it back is it the, is it the performance of Skoal, is it the competitive environment and discount brands etcetera.
Martin Barrington:
Yeah sure let’s go back. What I’d say first of all is remember for us and our smokeless business we have margins above 62%. So of course you can always have a better net pricing realization but in the category that has margins like that and that were the category is growing. We can grow our income very nicely and remember what we’re trying to do there is, is to grow that income off of the volume in line with the category growth and then to have modest share momentum on Copenhagen and Skoal. So that’s the approach and I think in CAGNY we did a fairly good job I think of laying out how that’s played out over the last five years since we got the business and whether it’s on volume growth or income growth we’ve really grown these business very nicely. Copenhagen of course has taken off well and we’re now working on Skoal.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.
Nik Modi – RBC Capital Markets:
Two questions. First is on, I’m just its kind of interesting how the weather was so disastrous in the US weeks of January and February and this earning season broadly speaking companies really haven’t seen any impact. So I’m just curious on your kind of state of union on the consumer, is the consumer stronger than we’ll thought? As we started off the year and then the second question is, now that the Green Smoke acquisition is closed, curious on if you plan on kind of launching it nationally in conjunction with MarkTen so you have kind of two, two different blends in the marketplace to try capture as much growth as you can.
Martin Barrington:
Look with respect to the whether we could see some disruptions from time-to-time but actually it didn’t really translate into a drag on other operating or our financial performance. With respect to the adult tobacco consumer I don’t think that our view has changed since last we spoke about this. Given the unemployment and the underemployment rates and labor participation rates in the like and consumer confidence still being better but nowhere where it needs to be. We’re hopeful that things are going to improve but our operating plans from 14 assume that the adult tobacco consumers going to be cautious as was in ‘13. Good question about Green Smoke, we closed on Green Smoke and we’re working now, we have our integration teams working on supply chain and marketing and the like. Our launch though, nationally will be focused on MarkTen and then obviously Green Smoke has retail opportunities in the US and we’ll be working on that, but that’s not a part of the national plan.
Nik Modi – RBC Capital Markets:
And Marty one just follow-up to that. It strikes to me that the innovation cycles and the e-cig category are much more rapid obviously when the traditional cigarette and tobacco businesses. What is Altria doing just from a capability standpoint to kind of prepare for so it’s kind of a faster innovation timeline? It seems like most companies are struggling right now, they have the next generation of products but they can’t launch them because they still have their existing products in the marketplace. I was just curious on your view?
Martin Barrington:
Yeah, that’s another good question. We actually started back on this Nick a couple of years ago to really improve our innovation system as a whole. We thought that we had opportunities to get faster, to develop better consumer insights and to more rapidly turn them into products to satisfy their needs. So we’ve actually been after this, not just on e-cigarettes but on all of our business just for about two years now. We’ve made significant improvements I’d like to think in the system itself. And then with respect to e-vapor, you’re right to point out that the learning cycles are shorter. And so we were working very hard on our consumer insight system in our market reach systems to make sure that those systems are adjusted to give us quicker reads on what’s happening with the consumer and in the marketplace. And we’re using lots of techniques like ethnography and other techniques to make sure we’re staying close to that consumer because they’re moving around a bit.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
So my first question is just really trying to better understand your investment spending behind the Nu Mark and MarkTen specifically just looking at the all others segment with a loss of $1 million, it’s actually a little bit better sequentially from the fourth quarter. So trying to strip out what would PMCC versus your investment on Nu Mark. And then as you prepare for the national launch in June we see a step up in terms of the spending particularly in the second quarter there. So just kind of any help on your thoughts on the investment spending there?
Howard Willard III:
Sure Judy, this is Howard. I think as you look at the year-over-year comparisons in the other segments, I think first quarter reflects what we’ve said during the course of the year, which is we’ve had unfavorable comparisons year-over-year on PMCC. And we’ve also increase our investment related to Nu Mark, and I think as we move into the second quarter you’re going to continue to see trends of us continuing to invest in Nu Mark as we ramp after that national launch in June.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
If I can follow from that Howard because just in terms of thinking about items, there’s a lot of moving parts below the line. So if you can just help us understand just in terms of the interest expense because you did see a big drop off and if we just pick the run rate for Q1 it’s a pretty meaningful decline in terms of the interest expenses. And then just in terms of the SAB Miller seems like that’s coming in on a year-over-year basis, more of a drag in terms of your guidance. So any help you can provide us in terms of Q1 below the line and then how we should think about that for the rest of the year?
Howard Willard III:
Certainly, I refer back to our annual guidance and I think you are right that this is going to be a bit of a unique year in that as the quarters unfold, you might have different trends in the quarters then that are reflected in the total year performance. And certainly that’s reflected in the first quarter related to SAB Miller. IN SAB Miller we actually had unfavorable year-over-year trend, although that was really driven by the fact that SAB Miller issued more stock in the first quarter of last year than they did in the first quarter of this year that has a negative impact on our earnings. If you actually looked at the performance excluding that SAB Miller had a growth in the quarter. So I think that certainly was a unique impact in the first quarter with regard to SAB Miller. We’ve already communicated that on an annual basis, because of the strong asset sales in the past from PMCC, if those slowdown, there’s going to be an unfavorable impact. But then of course below the operating company’s income line there were number of favorability for the year. And you started to see the interest decline in the first quarter with certainly benefited earnings and that’ll continue to unfold through the year. You also see it in our cash rates on adjusted income basis has come down in the quarter. And that is going to be reflected through the total year. And then of course there’s an impact on EPS growth from our share repurchase program. So there were certainly a number of positives in the quarter including a strong performance on the smokeless segment, but that is being offset by SAB Miller, by PMCC and some investments in Nu Mark. Although ultimately resulting that we thought was a nice 5.6% EPS growth for the quarter.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
Is the run rate for the interest expense for the year a 2-1 run rate, it should be what we should be using?
Howard Willard III:
Yeah, I don’t know that you can just take an annualized in first quarter because there were a number of different things that happened last year. But certainly you should expect to see a nice favorable interest impact for the total year just like we had a nice favorable interest impact in the first quarter.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
Okay, and then Marty I just wanted to go back to sort of the cigarette industry consumption question. And the question just really is more just thinking about the longer-term run rate because clearly you have smokeless and some of these other tobacco products that have grown pretty nicely, and also just thinking about your MarkTen launch in a couple of test markets. What do you see in terms of substitutability and kind of the trade-off you’re seeing on cigarette consumption versus e-cigarettes? So is it really the decline for cigarette consumption, even if we come out of the economy in the more challenging economic conditions is the decline really going to accelerated just because all these other tobacco products really grow at a faster pace?
Martin Barrington:
That question comes up a lot, but there’s no reason to think that right now. We don’t predict to the consumption decline rate going forward but we do look at a number of factors as you know. And what have we seen is that over the last several years it’s really been 3% to 4% and that’s been through periods when there have been other products that come into the marketplace. E-cigarettes I would argue being just among the last, so is it possible that it could speed up or head the other way I suppose anything is possible. But when we look at the data and we look at it pretty carefully to see if there are any new drivers that would change what the historical rate has been, at least right now Judy we don’t see that. Our model as is to use an estimate of secular decline of call it 2% to 3% in that neighborhood and embedded in that in our model are people who are trying other products or even indeed migrating to other products. And that seems like that plus the historical price elasticity still seems to do a pretty good job of explaining the decline rate.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
And the test markets that you’ve launched MarkTen, any difference that you’re noticing in terms of the cigarette consumption behavior?
Martin Barrington:
But that’s pretty early there with respect to the test markets to be reading that.
Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs:
Okay, thank you.
Martin Barrington:
Judy, thanks for calling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog from Wells Fargo.
Bonnie Herzog – Wells Fargo:
Hi, I have a two part question on Marlboro. First could you drill down further on what drove the share gains and then how much of the gains were driven by your relatively new line extensions or has your core Marlboro improved and contributed to the gains. And then second I’d be curious to hear from you how you’re going to balance keeping your eye on your core Marlboro brand and then innovation behind the brand while also focusing on driving innovation e-cigs. I know you touched on this a little bit but just wanted to hear from you how you think about the targets for the businesses?
Martin Barrington:
Sure, let me start with Marlboro. I think the answer to Marlboro lies in the main in the implementation of the Marlboro architecture which is itself a terrific example of innovation in the business. So you know the story behind the Marlboro architecture, I won’t repeat it, but what we see there is that by employing it we’ve been able to reach out in different ways to adult smokers. You take Marlboro Black, which is doing extremely well and then really the Marlboro architecture along with innovation say on Marlboro.com the age restricted website and you’ll like, has really helped Marlboro grow in the way that it wants to grow. I would also say if you look at Marlboro’s historical share growth, it’s completely consistent with that. So I think that’s the answer on Marlboro and so far we’ve been able to execute our strategy well I think of maximizing income while keeping Marlboro on a good momentum pad. The way we describe the answer to your question about how can you focus on your core business while also paying attention to innovation is almost exactly like that. We call it maximizing the core business while innovating through the future. And our organization is filled with enough talented people and we have enough resources to develop that. I just don’t accept the notion that the world is so binary as you have to do one of the other. And I think that you’ve been able to see that recently. We continue to maximize the income that comes out of our core tobacco businesses at the same time we’ve entered e-vapor space. We created our own product. We’ve been into test markets we’ve done a transaction with PMI to hopefully sell those products internationally. And now we’ve done a very nice tack on acquisition to improve our capability in such things as the supply chain and entrepreneurial culture. And you know what I’m very proud of the organization. We have really I think done quite a good job of describing this to our people and where we’re going and how we’re going to get there. And I am very proud of the work that’s been done in that regard.
Bonnie Herzog – Wells Fargo:
Okay that’s helpful looking at other companies. Historically a lot of times they feel as they, they start to chase growth and maybe lose focus on the core so I think it’s just something to make sure you guys are paying attention to, that was very helpful. And then my question is a little bit of a follow on in terms of your approach to building your e-cig business. You did mention you’re going to make disciplined investments. So I’m curious to hear, how willing you are to let this business be a drag on your earnings or how should we think about this in the next couple of years in terms of the potential impact on earnings?
Martin Barrington:
Well we think about it is through our mission. And our mission is to satisfy adult tobacco consumers. And if adult tobacco consumers want to move to innovative products like e-vapor probably won’t be the last by the way, there’ll be other products that they want to try. Particularly those, that may hold out the promise for less harm if the FDA were to approve them. I think it’s the wrong approach to try to run the business in a way to hold that back. We’re in the job of satisfying our adult tobacco consumers. And we’re going to have products for them that are premium and then have margin and they done responsibly. And that’s how we think about it. And so it’s about understanding your consumer and trying to give them what they want. All the while of course paying attention in keeping the word discipline is important. And we use that word deliberately so that we keep our eye on our core businesses.
Howard Willard III:
I think this is Howard. I do think, we remain committed to our long-term EPS growth of 7% to 9% and continuing to return a large amount of cash to shareholders 80% payout ratio. And as we see it now we think the different levers we have to pull and the strength of our business platform auto allow us to make the appropriate investments and stay consistent with our long-term strategy.
Bonnie Herzog – Wells Fargo:
Alright very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Gowe of Stifel.
Chris Gowe – Stifel:
I just had two questions for you if I could. First would be asking before about you’ve got a pretty healthy stream of new products while the industry’s been a little – to little slower just due to the FDA approvals. And we had more of those theoretically coming off from the FDA. So, maybe from what your portfolio in addition of new products but do you expect to see an increased activity with these new FDA approvals coming out over the next few months?
Martin Barrington:
I suppose so I mean they have seen that FDA issued new performance metrics about how it’s going to try to turn FET’s faster beginning with fiscal year 2015 and they had some increase from various people about the time that’s taken of FET so I can only talk about ours of course but we remain I think with a very healthy portfolio. Ultimately of course that’s the way the industry’s is going to work. The FDA is going to have to look at new products and approval.
Chris Gowe – Stifel:
And then just a question in relation to taxes there’s obviously an FET proposal for this year. I just want to get a sense of what you’re expecting at this early stage of the year for bit of sales tax increases for the year do you see this year a larger than average volume this year?
Martin Barrington:
Well I hope no and we’ve working very hard to make that not happen with many others. So far be activity Chris has been very active in terms of proposals but actually fairly modest in terms of passage. So we don’t have any FETs to memory that had passed so far this year although there have been lots of proposals. And there remain proposals in the state houses so our government authority is hard to have that. The FET is still hanging around out there although it is not seen at this moment in time anyway to have gain to lot of traction.
Chris Gowe – Stifel:
Okay and just if I could ask one quick one maybe to Howard in relation to share repurchase activity you have some are you able to renew since the third quarter but my calculation you got a lot of free cash flow as well still coming through this year so are there any other unusual need for that cash that maybe keeping from being a little more aggressive the share repurchase activity this year.
Howard Willard III:
Well I think you’re right to point out this, on the current program we are coming towards the end of it. We got about $187 million left and our normal practice has been that most of the cash returned to shareholders come through our 80% dividend payout ratio but opportunistically we’ll do some share repurchase. So additional share repurchase is sure to be a discussion topic here over the next several months. And I think with regard to incremental cash needs going forward, I don’t think we see that there are dramatically different incremental needs going forward than we’ve had over the last year. So, certainly use of cash for something, we’ll be looking at over the next few months.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of CLSA.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
I guess the most conspicuously Epsilon is in the mention of those competitive impact from new product launches in your largest non-menthol, non-full flavor segment. Can you just give a little color there, you’ve gained share and since 3Q your price mix seems to have accelerated. How does that look, I mean obviously you’re getting on just time, can you give a sense of kind of what you’re seeing in the market you’re in?
Martin Barrington:
I think PM USA; the short answer is PM USA’s have done a heck of a good job of managing its plans. We say this at the beginning of the year; it’s a good reminder to us actually. When we do our planning we take everything into account including the fact that, competitors will launch products from time-to-time. And so we don’t disclose how we think about that or the actions that PM USA takes to protect its franchise. But you’re right to point out I think, that the metrics of its performance in the face of that and other challenges really speaks to the strength of the PM USA franchise.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
Okay, that’s fair and then just looking back at PMCC, versus about three years ago your asset balance there is less than half what it was. And certainly if you had asset the sale run rate that you did over the last few years that business would entirely go away in two and a half or so years. But I realized there are some assets that don’t make sense to sell for any of a combination of reasons. And there’s probably a little bit of a long tail. Just looking ahead can you give us a sense of what you expect in terms of the split in that segment it’s income between sales and just ongoing operations? Are there still sales that makes sense to do, are they going to be sporadic or few and far between. Can you just give some color on kind of how the outlook is there?
Howard Willard III:
Sure. I think you’ve accessed PMCC about right, which is our goal really has been to rapidly unwind that business, but to do it in a way that is maximizing the profit and cash flow that Altria gets from it. And so we’re pleased to see that we’re down to a net finance receivable of only about $2 billion down quite significantly. Frankly our goal with an eye towards still having an appropriate earnings impact and cash flow impact is to unwind that business as quickly as possible because we think that our focus really is elsewhere at this time. I would say that we’ve had quite strong asset sales over the last couple of years. I would expect to see those asset sales continue but at a lower rate. And that’s really what our belief is and I think that what results from that is the results we’ll continue to get an income contribution from that business, the year-over-year comparisons. Certainly for this year are likely to be unfavorable and it’s going to be lumpy in any given quarter. You’re going to see part of the variance in that quarter driven by what goes on at PMCC. I think the good news is as you’ve pointed out, the business is a much smaller part of Altria now. And I think its impact is going to diminish greatly here over the next year or two.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
That’s helpful. And then just lastly this is me picking your wording a little that you mentioned in your release closing the Green Smoke deal and its affiliates, does it have any notable affiliates or like maybe a vaporizer business or anything that you might be looking at that’s interesting or is that just sort of terminology that doesn’t really –?
Howard Willard III:
We just meant to describe that there was more than one company in that family, but the business is exactly as we described it before.
Michael Lavery – CLSA:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you at this time, I’d now like to turn the call over to Miss Sarah Knakmus for closing comments.
Sarah Knakmus:
Thank you everyone for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow up questions please contact us at Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.