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Match Group, Inc. logo
Match Group, Inc.
MTCH · US · NASDAQ
34.85
USD
-0.02
(0.06%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Philip D. Eigenmann CPA Chief Accounting Officer 635K
Mr. Sam Ahn Co-Founder & Chief Innovation Officer of Match Group Asia --
Ms. Jeanette Teckman Interim Chief Legal Officer --
Ms. Justine Sacco Chief Communications Officer --
Mr. Will Wu Chief Technology Officer --
Ms. Joanne Hawkins Senior Vice President & Deputy General Counsel --
Mr. D.V. Williams Chief People Officer --
Mr. Bernard J. Kim Chief Executive Officer & Director 2.87M
Mr. Gary Swidler President & Chief Financial Officer 1.94M
Mr. Nick Stoumpas Senior Vice President & Treasurer --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-07-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 31 0
2024-07-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 11 30.38
2024-07-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 31 0
2024-06-30 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 411 30.38
2024-06-30 Jones Laura Rachel director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 411 30.38
2024-06-22 SPOON ALAN G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 6088 0
2024-06-21 SPOON ALAN G director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8061 0
2024-06-22 SPOON ALAN G director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2024-06-22 Seymon Pamela director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 6088 0
2024-06-21 Seymon Pamela director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8061 0
2024-06-22 Seymon Pamela director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2024-06-22 Schiffman Glenn director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 6088 0
2024-06-21 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8061 0
2024-06-22 Schiffman Glenn director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2024-06-22 MCINERNEY THOMAS director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 6088 0
2024-06-21 MCINERNEY THOMAS director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8061 0
2024-06-22 MCINERNEY THOMAS director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2024-06-22 MCDANIEL ANN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 6088 0
2024-06-21 MCDANIEL ANN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8061 0
2024-06-22 MCDANIEL ANN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2024-06-22 Dubey Sharmistha director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 6088 0
2024-06-21 Dubey Sharmistha director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8061 0
2024-06-22 Dubey Sharmistha director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2024-06-22 Brenner Melissa Anne director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 6088 0
2024-06-21 Brenner Melissa Anne director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8061 0
2024-06-22 Brenner Melissa Anne director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2024-06-22 Bailey Stephen director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 6088 0
2024-06-21 Bailey Stephen director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8061 0
2024-06-22 Bailey Stephen director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2024-06-15 SPOON ALAN G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2024-06-15 SPOON ALAN G director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2024-06-15 Seymon Pamela director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2024-06-15 Seymon Pamela director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2024-06-15 Schiffman Glenn director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2024-06-15 Schiffman Glenn director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2024-06-15 Murdoch Wendi director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2024-06-15 Murdoch Wendi director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2024-06-15 MCINERNEY THOMAS director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2024-06-15 MCINERNEY THOMAS director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2024-06-15 MCDANIEL ANN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2024-06-15 MCDANIEL ANN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2024-06-15 Brenner Melissa Anne director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2024-06-15 Brenner Melissa Anne director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2024-06-15 Bailey Stephen director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2024-06-15 Bailey Stephen director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2024-06-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 987 0
2024-06-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 349 30.63
2024-06-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 164 0
2024-06-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 58 30.63
2024-06-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 987 0
2024-06-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 164 0
2024-06-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 30966 0
2024-06-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 15694 30.63
2024-06-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 30966 0
2024-06-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 987 0
2024-06-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 340 30.63
2024-06-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 987 0
2024-03-31 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 345 36.28
2024-03-31 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 241 36.28
2024-03-31 Jones Laura Rachel director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 15 36.28
2024-04-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 31 0
2024-04-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 11 36.28
2024-04-01 Teckman Jeanette Chief Legal Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 31 0
2024-03-24 Rascoff Spencer M director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6993 0
2024-03-24 Jones Laura Rachel director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6993 0
2024-03-24 Rascoff Spencer M - 0 0
2024-03-24 Jones Laura Rachel - 0 0
2024-03-11 Teckman Jeanette Interim Chief Legal Officer D - Common Stock, par value $0.001 0 0
2025-03-01 Teckman Jeanette Interim Chief Legal Officer D - Restricted Stock Units 9406 0
2024-03-01 Swidler Gary President and CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 37770 0
2024-03-01 Swidler Gary President and CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 20936 36.04
2024-03-01 Swidler Gary President and CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 37770 0
2024-03-01 Swidler Gary President and CFO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 64498 0
2024-03-02 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 32883 0
2024-03-02 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 9628 35.91
2024-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 20602 0
2024-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 5017 36.04
2024-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 36.05
2024-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 8770 0
2024-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 20602 0
2024-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 3242 36.04
2024-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 8770 0
2024-03-02 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 32883 0
2024-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 3951 0
2024-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 14780 0
2024-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 1457 36.04
2024-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 3069 0
2024-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 1055 36.04
2024-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3951 0
2024-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3069 0
2024-03-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 139747 0
2024-03-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 41203 0
2024-03-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 41203 0
2024-03-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 16718 36.04
2024-02-19 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 5509 0
2024-02-19 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 1465 37.59
2024-02-19 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5509 0
2024-02-19 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 537 0
2024-02-19 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 213 37.59
2024-02-19 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 537 0
2024-02-19 Dubey Sharmistha director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 5509 0
2024-02-19 Dubey Sharmistha director D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 1572 37.59
2024-02-19 Dubey Sharmistha director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5509 0
2024-02-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 38.76
2023-12-31 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 342 36.5
2023-12-31 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 240 36.5
2024-01-02 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 35.98
2023-12-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 32.32
2023-11-02 Schiffman Glenn director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 4000 29.105
2023-11-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 30.25
2023-10-23 Schiffman Glenn director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 692 0
2023-10-23 Schiffman Glenn director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 692 0
2023-09-30 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 223 39.18
2023-09-30 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 319 39.18
2023-10-02 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 39
2023-09-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 47.38
2023-09-01 Dubey Sharmistha director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 31893 0
2023-09-01 Dubey Sharmistha director D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 10120 46.87
2023-09-01 Dubey Sharmistha director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 31893 0
2023-08-09 MCDANIEL ANN director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 8735 45.8221
2023-08-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 45.66
2023-07-03 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 41.89
2023-06-30 SPOON ALAN G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 800 0
2023-06-30 SPOON ALAN G director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 800 0
2023-06-30 Seymon Pamela director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 800 0
2023-06-30 Seymon Pamela director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 800 0
2023-06-30 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 299 41.85
2023-06-30 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 209 41.85
2023-06-30 Murdoch Wendi director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 800 0
2023-06-30 Murdoch Wendi director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 800 0
2023-06-30 MCINERNEY THOMAS director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 800 0
2023-06-30 MCINERNEY THOMAS director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 800 0
2023-06-30 MCDANIEL ANN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 800 0
2023-06-30 MCDANIEL ANN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 800 0
2023-06-30 Brenner Melissa Anne director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 800 0
2023-06-30 Brenner Melissa Anne director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 800 0
2023-06-30 Bailey Stephen director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 800 0
2023-06-30 Bailey Stephen director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 800 0
2023-06-22 SPOON ALAN G director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2023-06-22 Seymon Pamela director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2023-06-22 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2023-06-22 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2023-06-22 MCINERNEY THOMAS director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2023-06-22 MCDANIEL ANN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2023-06-22 Dubey Sharmistha director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2023-06-22 Brenner Melissa Anne director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2023-06-22 Bailey Stephen director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6088 0
2023-06-15 Seymon Pamela director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2023-06-15 Seymon Pamela director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2023-06-15 Schiffman Glenn director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2023-06-15 Schiffman Glenn director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2023-06-15 Murdoch Wendi director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2023-06-15 Murdoch Wendi director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2023-06-15 MCINERNEY THOMAS director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2023-06-15 MCINERNEY THOMAS director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2023-06-15 MCDANIEL ANN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2023-06-15 MCDANIEL ANN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2023-06-15 Brenner Melissa Anne director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2023-06-15 Brenner Melissa Anne director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2023-06-15 Bailey Stephen director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2023-06-15 Bailey Stephen director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2022-12-31 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - Common Stock, par value $0.001 0 0
2023-06-15 SPOON ALAN G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2023-06-15 SPOON ALAN G director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 585 0
2023-06-08 SPOON ALAN G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 2953 0
2023-06-08 SPOON ALAN G director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2023-06-08 Seymon Pamela director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 2953 0
2023-06-08 Seymon Pamela director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2023-06-08 Schiffman Glenn director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 2953 0
2023-06-08 Schiffman Glenn director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2023-06-08 Murdoch Wendi director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 2953 0
2023-06-08 Murdoch Wendi director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2023-06-08 MCINERNEY THOMAS director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 2953 0
2023-06-08 MCINERNEY THOMAS director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2023-06-08 MCDANIEL ANN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 2953 0
2023-06-08 MCDANIEL ANN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2023-06-08 Brenner Melissa Anne director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 2953 0
2023-06-08 Brenner Melissa Anne director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2023-06-08 Bailey Stephen director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 2953 0
2023-06-08 Bailey Stephen director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2023-06-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 35.34
2023-06-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 30967 0
2023-06-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 30967 0
2023-06-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 15354 34.5
2023-05-31 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer A - P-Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 31439 34.4372
2023-05-18 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - G-Gift Common Stock, par value $0.001 32880 0
2023-05-18 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - G-Gift Common Stock, par value $0.001 32880 0
2023-03-31 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 326 38.39
2023-03-31 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 228 38.39
2023-03-08 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - G-Gift Common Stock, par value $0.001 25626 0
2023-03-08 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - G-Gift Common Stock, par value $0.001 25626 0
2023-03-01 Swidler Gary President and CFO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 113308 0
2023-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 61804 0
2023-03-02 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 7110 41.272
2023-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 8771 0
2023-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 3452 41.42
2023-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 8771 0
2023-03-01 Murdoch Wendi director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 500 41.795
2023-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 11845 0
2023-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 3070 0
2023-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 744 41.42
2023-03-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3070 0
2023-03-01 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 123609 0
2023-02-18 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 1852 0
2023-02-19 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 537 0
2023-02-19 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 153 43.63
2023-02-18 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 550 43.63
2023-02-19 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 537 0
2023-02-18 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1852 0
2023-02-18 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 22463 0
2023-02-19 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 5509 0
2023-02-19 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 2100 43.63
2023-02-18 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 5565 43.63
2023-02-19 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5509 0
2023-02-18 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 22463 0
2023-02-19 Dubey Sharmistha director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 5509 0
2023-02-19 Dubey Sharmistha director D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 1528 43.63
2023-02-19 Dubey Sharmistha director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5509 0
2022-12-31 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - Common Stock, par value $0.001 0 0
2022-12-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 9916 0
2022-12-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 29234 0
2022-12-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 18232 41.49
2022-12-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 9916 0
2022-12-31 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 301 41.49
2022-12-31 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 211 41.49
2022-12-01 Dubey Sharmistha director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 11018 0
2022-12-01 Dubey Sharmistha director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 63785 0
2022-12-01 Dubey Sharmistha director D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 29437 50.56
2022-12-01 Dubey Sharmistha director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 63785 0
2022-12-01 Dubey Sharmistha director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 11018 0
2022-10-23 Schiffman Glenn director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 693 0
2022-10-23 Schiffman Glenn director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 693 0
2022-09-30 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 262 47.75
2022-09-30 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 183 47.75
2022-09-30 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 2953 0
2022-09-30 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 585 0
2022-09-30 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 1385 0
2022-09-30 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 262 47.75
2022-09-30 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2022-09-01 Dubey Sharmistha director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 31891 0
2022-09-01 Dubey Sharmistha D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 12550 56.53
2022-09-01 Dubey Sharmistha D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 31891 0
2022-08-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 40822 0
2022-08-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 14617 0
2022-08-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 8084 56.48
2022-08-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 9917 0
2022-08-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 5485 56.48
2022-08-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 22576 56.48
2022-08-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 14617 0
2022-08-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 9917 0
2022-08-31 Swidler Gary COO and CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 40822 0
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2022-06-30 Murdoch Wendi A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 125 69.69
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2022-06-30 MCDANIEL ANN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 801 0
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2022-06-08 Bailey Stephen A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2022-06-08 Brenner Melissa Anne A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
2022-06-08 MCDANIEL ANN A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2953 0
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2022-05-31 Kim Bernard Jin Chief Executive Officer D - Common Stock, par value $0.001 0 0
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2021-12-31 LEVIN JOSEPH - 0 0
2022-02-14 Swidler Gary officer - 0 0
2022-02-14 Sine Jared F. officer - 0 0
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2022-03-31 Reynolds Ryan A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 115 108.74
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2022-03-01 Swidler Gary COO and CFO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 43851 0
2022-03-01 Dubey Sharmistha Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 65777 0
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2022-03-01 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 26311 0
2022-03-02 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - G-Gift Common Stock, par value $0.001 27717 0
2022-02-19 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 5509 0
2022-02-18 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 11229 0
2022-02-19 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 2168 107.56
2022-02-18 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 4419 111.88
2022-02-18 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 11229 0
2022-02-19 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5509 0
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2022-02-18 Swidler Gary COO and CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 40822 0
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2022-02-18 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 1853 0
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2022-02-18 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 452 111.88
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2022-02-19 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 537 0
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2022-02-14 Swidler Gary COO and CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 26836 0
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2022-02-14 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 26834 0
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2022-02-14 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 26834 0
2022-02-14 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 4471 0
2022-02-14 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 1139 112.76
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2022-02-06 Dubey Sharmistha Chief Executive Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 113103 0
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2021-12-31 Reynolds Ryan director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 95 132.25
2021-12-31 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 66 132.25
2021-12-31 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 95 132.25
2021-10-23 Schiffman Glenn director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 693 0
2021-10-23 Schiffman Glenn director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 693 0
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 91686 24.8577
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 91686 24.8577
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 1430 166.6308
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 1900 167.8201
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 1000 168.4885
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 2200 169.8307
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 1800 170.8689
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 600 171.8217
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 7131 173.0528
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 34893 173.9184
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 71534 24.8577
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 92328 175.024
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 4535 175.9608
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 4001 176.7837
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 1994 177.7763
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 5959 179.0788
2021-10-23 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 693 0
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 3149 179.8429
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 300 181.0867
2021-10-23 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 693 0
2021-10-21 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 71534 24.8577
2021-09-30 Reynolds Ryan director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 79 156.99
2021-09-30 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 79 156.99
2021-09-30 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 40 156.99
2021-09-30 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 79 156.99
2020-06-30 Reynolds Ryan director D - Common Stock, par value $0.001 0 0
2021-09-27 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 5976 24.8577
2021-09-27 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 5976 24.8577
2021-09-27 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 5976 165.2236
2021-09-10 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 70450 24.8577
2021-09-10 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 70450 24.8577
2021-09-13 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 200 24.8577
2021-09-10 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 32671 165.2838
2021-09-10 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 8644 166.5354
2021-09-10 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 14553 167.4728
2021-09-10 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 9912 168.4996
2021-09-10 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 3170 169.4364
2021-09-13 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 200 24.8577
2021-09-13 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 200 165.29
2021-09-10 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 1500 170.2717
2021-07-23 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 25444 24.8577
2021-07-23 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 25444 24.8577
2021-07-23 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 11322 165.7657
2021-07-23 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 8712 166.6437
2021-07-23 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 5110 167.4246
2021-07-23 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 300 168.11
2021-07-13 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 52865 24.8577
2021-07-14 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 5025 24.8577
2021-07-13 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 52865 24.8577
2021-07-14 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 5025 24.8577
2021-07-13 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 48115 165.3227
2021-07-14 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 4025 165.4636
2021-07-13 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 4750 166.2251
2021-07-14 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 1000 166.3193
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2021-06-30 Reynolds Ryan director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 801 0
2021-06-30 Reynolds Ryan director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 78 161.25
2021-06-30 Reynolds Ryan director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 801 0
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2021-06-30 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 39 161.25
2021-06-30 Murdoch Wendi director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 801 0
2021-06-30 MCINERNEY THOMAS director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 801 0
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2021-06-30 MCDANIEL ANN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 801 0
2021-06-30 MCDANIEL ANN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 801 0
2021-06-30 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 159 161.25
2021-06-30 Brenner Melissa Anne director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 801 0
2021-06-30 Brenner Melissa Anne director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 801 0
2021-06-30 Bailey Stephen director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 801 0
2021-06-30 Bailey Stephen director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 801 0
2021-07-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 473 0
2021-07-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 187 161.25
2021-07-01 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 473 0
2021-06-19 SPOON ALAN G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 1224 0
2021-06-19 SPOON ALAN G director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1224 0
2021-06-19 Seymon Pamela director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 1224 0
2021-06-19 Seymon Pamela director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1224 0
2021-06-19 MCDANIEL ANN director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 1224 0
2021-06-19 MCDANIEL ANN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1224 0
2021-06-19 MCINERNEY THOMAS director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 1224 0
2021-06-19 MCINERNEY THOMAS director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1224 0
2021-06-15 SPOON ALAN G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 2107 0
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2021-06-15 SPOON ALAN G director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2107 0
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2021-06-15 Seymon Pamela director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2107 0
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2021-06-15 Reynolds Ryan director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1756 0
2021-06-15 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1756 0
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2021-06-15 MCINERNEY THOMAS director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2107 0
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2021-06-15 MCDANIEL ANN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1756 0
2021-06-15 MCDANIEL ANN director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2107 0
2021-06-15 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1756 0
2021-06-15 Brenner Melissa Anne director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1756 0
2021-06-15 Bailey Stephen director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1756 0
2021-03-30 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - G-Gift Common Stock, par value $0.001 16989 0
2021-03-05 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - G-Gift Common Stock, par value $0.001 6600 0
2021-03-30 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. D - G-Gift Common Stock, par value $0.001 16989 0
2021-05-17 MCDANIEL ANN director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 2500 138.825
2021-05-13 Dubey Sharmistha Chief Executive Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 14928 0
2021-05-13 Dubey Sharmistha Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, par value $0.001 5875 141.62
2021-05-13 Dubey Sharmistha Chief Executive Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 14928 0
2021-05-11 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 10861 24.768
2021-05-11 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 10861 24.768
2021-05-11 Eigenmann Philip D Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 10861 146.212
2021-03-31 Reynolds Ryan director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 91 137.38
2021-03-31 Murdoch Wendi director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 45 137.38
2021-03-31 Schiffman Glenn director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 91 137.38
2021-03-31 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - A-Award Common Stock, par value $0.001 237 137.38
2021-03-02 Sine Jared F. Chief Bus. Affairs & Leg. Off. A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 32883 0
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 73891 24.8577
2021-02-26 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 126295 24.8577
2021-02-24 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 145174 21.3314
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 73891 24.8577
2021-02-24 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 5854 157.7862
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 9045 151.6879
2021-02-26 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 126295 24.8577
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 11618 152.777
2021-02-24 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 22071 158.8614
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 12410 153.7227
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 12832 154.6587
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 16060 155.6818
2021-02-26 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 45442 147.1908
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director A - M-Exempt Common Stock, par value $0.001 70666 21.3314
2021-02-24 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 47478 159.8905
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 15982 156.8025
2021-02-26 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 27805 148.0219
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 25683 157.6687
2021-02-24 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - M-Exempt Options to Purchase Common Stock, par value $0.001 145174 21.3314
2021-02-26 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 18946 149.1719
2021-02-26 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 5330 149.9455
2021-02-26 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 5679 151.3554
2021-02-25 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 23527 158.7634
2021-02-26 LEVIN JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock, par value $0.001 12300 152.2662
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Transcripts
Operator:
Welcome to the Match Group Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Tanny Shelburne:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
Bernard Kim:
Thank you, Tanny. Good morning, and thank you all for joining today's call. Overall, we are pleased with our Q2 results and the progress we have made across our portfolio. Over my two years, it feels like currents are finally flowing with us and we have key elements working in our favor across the company. This is the beginning of a broader transformation as Tinder continues to show stabilization. Hinge is a rocket ship, expanding rapidly. Azar continues to perform strongly and marketing at Pairs has driven user strength and we're executing on a number of great initiatives throughout the entire company. Over the last several quarters, Tinder has been working hard to improve the user experience, and we're now starting to see initial signs of progress. User and payer trends are stabilizing, and we expect them to continue to improve from here. We expect strong sequential payer growth in Q3 and better year-over-year MAU trends in the second half of the year. As the largest dating app in the world, it's Tinder's job to deliver for its users, which in turn helps attract new users. Tinder is building on its fun legacy and its iconic swipe experience by continuing to increase authenticity and realness and by setting the industry standard for trust and safety. We believe this will address some of the concerns that users have been vocal about more recently. Over the next 12 months, Tinder intends to integrate AI more deeply to make the dating journey simpler and more effective such that we expect daters to look at Tinder and see an exciting, innovative and fresh experience. Tinder is already making strides as it works to achieve this vision. They've been working tirelessly to clean up its ecosystem, enhanced tools are being tested to increase authenticity with more to come in Q3 and AI-driven tools like Photo Selector are being deployed to make the Tinder experience easier and more effective. Next year, I expect an even bolder evolution of product to vastly improve its core matching experience. You've heard a constant theme of innovation from us and it's happening. But keep in mind, when you have a $2 plus billion revenue business and nearly 50 million MAU globally, all interacting in a connected and delicate ecosystem, innovation requires some pretty elite level of gymnastics. This effort requires a willingness to reimagine the core while building off of what already makes Tinder, Tinder. It's what we began doing with a major ecosystem cleanup initiated mid last year. And while the results weren't entirely predictable and certainly not linear, we believe they are paying off. We expect Tinder's initiatives to be iterative and continue to build off one another and to be coupled with continued strong marketing. There is even more to come in the second half of this year and into 2025 and I'm excited to share further progress with you at our Investor Day. Hinge continues to show remarkable performance, growing direct revenue nearly 50% year-over-year in Q2. It continues to rapidly grow its share of downloads in most of its markets. New product features like Your Turn Limits are driving higher quality conversations. It's AI-enabled Top Photo and Photo Finder are making the user journey meaningfully better and users are getting out on great dates even faster. Hinge's new marketing campaigns are also resonating, driving new user growth and getting incredibly positive press coverage. We expect that over the coming quarters, Match Group will own both the leading dating app in the world with durable growth and the fastest-growing at-scale dating app for intention daters as well as a host of growing brands behind them. We're also nurturing other growth brands across the portfolio. Azar's user growth and financial momentum are strong, driven by cutting-edge AI product innovation and a successful expansion into Europe. We also continue to add demographically focused emerging brands to our portfolio. We see clear opportunities to build new social experiences and leverage the latest in technology. Our unyielding commitment to trust and safety, along with our utilization of AI in a safe and responsible way will clearly benefit users across our entire portfolio. In other areas of our business, we're refocusing our efforts to play to our strengths. We decided to exit live streaming services in our dating apps and sunset Hyperconnect's Hakuna app, which provides live streaming services, primarily in Korea and Japan. While live streaming services brought some benefits to our portfolio and users, a couple of things have changed since we undertook these businesses, which have made them less beneficial. Since the pandemic with people sitting on Zooms all day, the novelty of live streaming video has declined. Additionally, these businesses require significant further investment and our financial profiles are below what we'd ultimately like our brands to achieve. We expect exiting live streaming along with other initiatives across the portfolio will result in a workforce reduction of approximately 6% globally, which we expect to result in incremental annual cost savings of approximately $13 million, which is in addition to our previously disclosed cost saving expectations from our tech replatforming efforts. It is important to reiterate the value that Hyperconnect has brought to Match Group, including a strongly growing asset in Azar and world class AI expertise. The Hyperconnect team has been integral in creating several of the AI enabled features that have been introduced across our brands, including Tinder's Photo Selector and Hinge's Top Photo and Photo Finder. This is just one example of how we're leveraging common technologies across our portfolio, but tailoring them to each specific brand. With this in mind, we plan to redeploy some of our retained Hyperconnect talent to Azar, Tinder and Hinge especially given the significant opportunity that we see to further embed AI-driven capabilities into our brands. We recognize that shareholders rightfully expect both near and long-term results. We not only embrace that challenge, but we think it's exactly how innovation should occur. At Tinder, innovation in a large scale ecosystem makes it difficult to predict exactly which features will succeed and when. But the market opportunity is there, the vision is clear and the team is executing. Hinge's momentum is undeniable and is on its path to become a $1 billion revenue business. And we're being financially disciplined in undertaking all this product innovation, which we expect will result in sustained user growth. Moreover, where we don't see as clear a path to growth, we're cutting back on cost as is the case with our evergreen brands. We understand that if we can't deliver a return to solid sustainable growth, other choices will need to be considered. We think that doomsday scenarios around dating apps are way overblown and you can start to see that in our results this quarter. We have product work to do, but once we do that, we are confident that the growth potential for our business is significant. Dating apps are still the best way for people to meet and we intend to continue to capture that opportunity. We welcome shareholder input and we remain committed to the delivery of increased shareholder value. We expect demonstrable progress quarter-over-quarter in our innovation and product development efforts. We believe return of capital can be a nice component of shareholder return given the highly profitable and cash flow generative nature of our business. And we've been buying back our stock aggressively because we believe it represents a terrific long-term investment. We look forward to sharing a deeper dive in our first ever Investor Day in December, where I'm excited to showcase the management team behind these incredible apps. With that, I will hand it over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, BK, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We exceeded our expectations in Q2 on both the top and bottom line despite some unexpected headwinds. Match Group's total revenue was $864 million, up 4% year-over-year, while our FX neutral total revenue was $892 million, up 8% year-over-year. We experienced $6 million more in FX headwind than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call. In the quarter, revenue per payer grew 9%, while payers declined 5% year-over-year. Tinder delivered $480 million of direct revenue, up 1% year-over-year, up 4% FX neutral. Tinder payers climbed 8% year-over-year to approximately $9.6 million, an improvement from the 9% year-over-year decline last quarter and above our expectations. Payers were down 78,000 sequentially. Tinder's Q2 RPP increased 10% year-over-year. While growth in subscription revenue at Tinder was solid at 7% year-over-year in Q2, Tinder continued to experience pressure on a la carte revenue, which was down 17% year-over-year in the quarter. Tinder is rolling out various initiatives to address the ALC weakness, including unbundling current features such as Passport and See Who Likes You into ALC to attract users who may not be as open to subscriptions. Both are in test now. Additionally, the team will shortly be testing two new ALC features, one that contextualizes someone's likes and another that helps foster ongoing engagement after matching. As a result, we're optimistic that Q2 will be a trough for declines in year-over-year ALC revenue and that trends will gradually improve in the second half of the year. Hinge direct revenue was $134 million, up 48% year-over-year in Q2. Hinge payers were up 24% year-over-year to nearly 1.5 million while RPP of $30 was up 19% year-over-year. MG Asia's direct revenue declined 4% to $74 million, up 9% on an FX neutral basis. Azar direct revenue declined 1% in the quarter, but was up 14% year-over-year FX neutral despite still not being able to access the Saudi market as its European expansion continued to contribute to results. Payers direct revenue fell 10% in the quarter, but was up 2% year-over-year FX neutral. Evergreen & Emerging brands direct revenue was $161 million, a decline of 8% year-over-year driven by the Evergreen brands, which declined 13% year-over-year, while the Emerging brands collectively grew direct revenue 17% year-over-year in Q2. Focusing on user trends, we saw sequential stability in Tinder's MAU, which were down 9% year-over-year in Q2, as was the case in Q1. MAU at Tinder have now been relatively stable since March. A large decline in MAU began in July of last year, driven in large part by changes we made to Tinder's trust and safety policies to remove people who are not truly on the app to connect that has now begun to stabilize. With much of this impact now behind us and given Tinder's various ongoing product and marketing initiatives, we're confident Tinder's year-over-year MAU declines should continue to moderate as this year passes. Hinge's user growth continues to be very strong across its key markets with 14% year-over-year download growth and 21% year-over-year MAU growth in Q2. The app gained significant share in Q2, ranking as the number two dating app across its collective English-speaking markets in May and June, including number one in the UK, Australia, Ireland and Canada and number three in the US. In its European expansion markets in aggregate, Hinge ranked number two by downloads in June and jumped up the charts in most of the key countries/regions, including France and Germany. Switching to profitability. Match Group Q2 AOI was $306 million, up 2% year-over-year for a margin of 35%. Operating income was $205 million in Q2, down 5% year-over-year for a margin of 24%. Q2 Match Group AOI and OI each benefited from the increase in revenue as a result of growth at Hinge and other brands and lower cost of revenue, partially offset by higher selling and marketing expenses, higher G&A expenses, which was primarily due to the new Canada digital services tax and higher product development costs which was primarily due to increased headcount in product at Tinder. The increase in selling and marketing spend was primarily at Hinge, Tinder and certain Emerging brands, partially offset by declines in marketing spend at other brands in our portfolio. Operating income was further impacted by increased SBC expense due to higher headcount and lower forfeitures of equity awards in 2024 than in 2023 and higher depreciation expense due to increases in internally developed software place and service, including at Tinder and Hyperconnect. In Q2, we repurchased 6.4 million of our shares at an average price of approximately $31 per share on a trade date basis for a total of $197 million. Year-to-date, we have deployed just slightly more than 100% of our free cash flow for repurchases, well above our latest commitment to deploy more than 75% of our free cash flow for buybacks. Since we resumed buybacks in May 2022, we have repurchased 35 million shares or 12% of the then outstanding shares. This would be 28 million shares or 10%, net of newly issued shares for employee equity plans. With our net leverage below our three times target at 2.4 times and $844 million in cash and cash equivalence and short-term investments, we have ample financial flexibility to continue returning at least 75% of our free cash flow to shareholders for the remainder of the year, which remains our objective. For Q3 '24, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $895 million to $905 million, up 2% to 3% year-over-year, which would be 4% to 5% FX neutral. This range reflects the lost revenue from our exit of live streaming, which we estimate will be about $8 million for the quarter, given we are exiting it mid-quarter. Note that FX headwinds for the second half have worsened by about one point since our last earnings call. For both Tinder and the whole company, we currently expect FX to be nearly a two-point year-over-year headwind in the back half of the year. We expect direct revenue at Tinder to be $505 million to $510 million in Q3, roughly flat year-over-year and up approximately 2.5% FX neutral. This range reflects improving year-over-year MAU and payer trends and moderating year-over-year RPP gains. It also reflects the improvement in year-over-year ALC revenue trends I mentioned earlier due to new initiatives in this area. We expect Tinder payers to decline at around 5% year-over-year in Q3, a further improvement from Q2 year-over-year levels, leading to positive sequential payer additions in Q3 of approximately 250,000. We expect continued improvement in year-over-year Tinder payers in Q4, though we expect typical seasonality to impact Q4 sequential payer additions. Across our other brands, we expect Q3 direct revenue of $375 million to $380 million, up 5% to 6% year-over-year, up 7% to 8% FX neutral. Within our other brands, we expect Hinge to deliver approximately $145 million of direct revenue in Q3, year-over-year growth of 35%. And as Hinge strength continues, but it anniversaries the introduction of several impactful monetization initiatives in the back half of last year. We expect Match Group AOI of $335 million to $340 million in Q3, up slightly year-over-year and margin of 37.5% at the midpoints of the ranges which would be stronger than our margins in the first half of the year. We expect overall Q3 marketing spend to be up about 6% year-over-year as we continue to roll out the latest Tinder marketing campaign to play marketing dollars to support our growth brands, including Hinge, Azar and some Emerging brands, but reduce marketing spend at other brands. Our AOI range for the quarter reflects approximately $6 million in employee severance and other charges relating to the exit of live streaming as well as approximately $1 million for Canada's new digital services tax. We expect Q3 OI to be impacted by roughly $50 million of impairments of intangibles and other charges related to the exit of our live streaming services. After accounting for the exit of live streaming services and based on our latest FX expectations, which have worsened by about one point since our last earnings call, we expect Match Group to deliver year-over-year total revenue growth of approximately 5%, up about 7.5% year-over-year FX neutral and Tinder to deliver roughly 3% year-over-year direct revenue growth, up approximately 5.5% year-over-year FX neutral for full year '24. We calculate that had we not elected to exit live streaming and FX headwinds not worsened, we would be on pace to deliver better than 6% total revenue growth for the year. We continue to expect to achieve our payer company AOI margin target of 36% despite incurring approximately $6 million of severance and other charges related to the exit of our live streaming businesses and $9 million of full year cost related to the Canada digital services tax none of which was included in our initial outlook for 2024. I know there is a significant focus on our longer-term consolidated AOI margins and free cash flow, so I want to make sure to outline the key considerations in this regard. As you heard BK talk about, we think the opportunity for our business remains significant and worth investing in particularly at Tinder and Hinge. Our goal is to return the company to sustained revenue growth, which requires us to invest in the product experience and in marketing. We are judicious in how we allocate capital and we'll continue to exercise sound discipline. We believe we're already in the process of making important efficiency moves at our E&E brands and at Hyperconnect, which result in margins more consistent with our consolidated levels. At Tinder and Hinge where we see significant global growth opportunities, we want to put the right building blocks in place around marketing, product and tech, particularly around AI, given how game-changing we think it can be. We believe this will be critical in remaining the leader in helping people spark meaningful connections over the next decade. As we make those important investments, especially in AI talent for which competition is intense. We expect our AOI margins will continue to improve, but only modestly in the near term. Our expectation is that as revenue growth reaccelerates and we remain disciplined on cost, we will see additional expansion in our AOI margins even before any potential relief in app store fees. We fully recognize though that if the top line growth does not materialize as we expect, we'll need to consider all options, including reduced investment and other alternatives. That said, we remain very confident that we're on the right track. Our expectations are to deliver nearly $1.1 billion of free cash flow in 2024. We expect our 2024 AOI to free cash flow conversion level to be elevated compared to prior and future years due to an expected additional app store payment this year and we expect our free cash flow conversion rate to return to more normalized levels in 2025. As I mentioned, we expect to utilize at least 75% of our free cash flow for capital return via buybacks for the remainder of the year. We believe that our current stock price our shares remain the best investment we can make with our capital. Given the opportunities we see in front of us and the current price of our stock, we believe repurchases will be highly accretive and represent a terrific long-term investment. We'll have much more to say on the growth, margin and free cash flow expectations at our Investor Day later this year. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]And our first question will come from Nathan Feather of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Nathan Feather:
Hey, everyone. Congrats on the stabilization and Tinder user growth in the quarter. Is there anything outsized that led to that stabilization or more so stacking of a variety of individual improvements? And can you help us contextualize how much of that is due to new user trends versus retention? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Nathan, for that question. I really like how you framed it around stacking Tinder product improvements. Our work is really a combination of product initiatives building on each other over time. And this is reinforced with really strong marketing that is helping drive stabilization and start contributing to improvements on the back half of this year. The trust and safety moves that we made last year are one of -- is a great example of stacking initiatives, which we know were the right decisions. And the good news is we've worked through a lot of those -- a lot of that noise and has led to better user outcomes and say that the user base has stabilized, retention is improving and growing and we're making strides in top of funnel again. It's a really exciting time period for Tinder.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Gary Swidler:
Jason, are you there?
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. Just one question. So has Tinder returned to normal payer seasonality in 3Q now that MAU has stabilized? And how should we be looking at more normal seasonality? Or should we be looking at more normal seasonality in the first half of next year? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks for the question, Jason. Let me jump in and try to address it. So just a few things to point out. I mean if you look historically, I think, what you'll see is that we commonly see sequential improvement in payers Q3 over Q2, and it's really because of two reasons which are actually related to one another. The first is that Q3 tends to be strong seasonally because it includes the summer vacation season, which is an active season for dating. And it also includes the back-to-school period where college students return to campus and also start to date actively. And we actually take advantage of the fact that people are focused on dating in that Q3 period by rolling out a lot of new features and initiatives in that period. And we often even reinforce that with marketing spend to call attention to the apps and to the new features. So Q3 does tend to be very seasonally strong for us. When you look at Q4 by contrast, it tends to be a weaker period than Q3, and that's because people tend to start focusing on the holiday period and thinking about the holidays, whether it's Thanksgiving in the US, Christmas across the world et cetera, and they focus less on dating. And so we lose a lot of the fourth quarter as people think about other activities besides dating. And of course, we tend not to roll out as many product initiatives in that fourth quarter and we generally tend to pull back on marketing, both because the audience isn't as focused and also because, of course, Q4 tends to be a much more expensive period to market against holiday marketing and so we tend to reduce our marketing spend in that quarter. And so you're right that when you look at kind of typically what happens Q3 to Q4 from a user and a payer perspective, we do tend to see some level of sequential weakness in Q4 over Q3 after the strength we've seen Q3 over Q2. I would say that this year, we plan to follow a similar pattern from the marketing perspective. We've got the new global marketing campaign going at Tinder, which is seeing great success and I would expect us to invest into marketing in Q3. But then given the holiday period, I would expect us to pull back on a year-over-year basis and, frankly, sequentially in Q4 as well on the marketing side. So those are just some of the factors to consider as you think about the seasonal trends. And I think you're also right that as we think about 2025 and it's early and so we'll provide more of an outlook on 2025 as we get a little bit later into this year as we typically do. But I think that with the stabilized now base at Tinder, we would expect a return to more seasonal trends in 2025 as we've seen historically. So I think you're right for both the rest of '24 and '25 from a seasonality perspective. I hope that answers your question.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Youssef Squali of Truist. Please go ahead.
Youssef Squali:
Great. Thank you very much. Maybe a two parter. One, BK, can you talk a little bit more about kind of practical green shoots you're seeing from some of the changes you've made and from increased product velocity in Tinder. And maybe, Gary, do you believe, I know you're not guiding quite a bit -- quite yet for '25, but do you believe that the improvement you're seeing in Tinder, if they sustain themselves into next year are enough to get the overall business back to maybe high single-digit, low double-digit growth in 2025? Or do you need to see other drivers maybe to get you there? Thank you very much.
Bernard Kim:
Great. Let me take a stab at describing the progress that we're making in Tinder. The turnaround is in progress and we're seeing great momentum. The team is super nimble when it comes to making decisions as some changes work and some changes don't, but the product velocity continues to be strong. We're making behind the scene improvements like recommendation changes and that's increasing user engagement and doing really positive things with driving better user outcomes. At the same time, the marketing velocity continues to be strong. Like Gary mentioned, we continue to market and we're solidifying Tinder's brand position in the marketplace. We're investing in product marketing where it matters most. If I were to describe the green shoots that you were looking for, the things that get me really excited is when product and marketing really come together. A good example of that is what's happening right now with the Olympics. We're actually seeing a 25% increase in swipe activity in France and a 105% increase in Tinder Passport mode and that activity that's happening in Paris. We actually purposefully unbundled Tinder Passport. So anyone around the world can teleport into Paris and interact with real athletes. And that's with integrated marketing at the same time, something that I'm really proud of. Our Olympics content that our marketing team has been working on has seen over 15 million impressions and over 10 million views. It's super exciting. Now we have a clear vision for Tinder's future and I can't wait to share more around that in our upcoming Investor Day.
Gary Swidler:
On your question about 2025, I'm going to resist the temptation to provide our outlook now and wait as we typically do until the fall period to do that. But I would say the following, which is we've been pretty clear that 2024 needed to be a year of progress. First, stabilizing things and then starting to show improvement. And I think if you look at the outlook we're providing, and as BK mentioned in his remarks, that's exactly what's happening in the business. We've reached a point of stabilizing users. We think it will get better on a year-over-year basis as we get into the back half of this year. And you can also see the same thing following through in payer trends, as you would expect, stabilization and an expectation for improvement. And so we're checking the boxes here that we expected to check in that regard. And obviously we don't consider that to be enough. We need to get back to improving MAU and improving payers on a year-over-year basis. And so we're going to continue to take those steps. We think that it will continue to improve through this year and into next. And it's incumbent on Tinder to continue to drive its product and marketing efforts to accomplish that, to drive better users, as we said earlier, to have products out there that people are excited about, that they tell their friends about that they return to Tinder for. And as that happens, user growth will increase and ultimately, payer growth will increase. And that is really the key that has to happen. I think we're seeing the green shoots as BK said, the first signs of that. It's still very early and which is why I'm resisting the temptation to go further in our outlook. But we feel good about where we are right now, and we feel like we'll continue to make the progress we need to make to position ourselves for a better 2025.
Youssef Squali:
Thank you both.
Operator:
The next question comes from Dan Salmon of New Street Research. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Okay. Great. Good morning, everyone. So it's a little bit of an exceptional period here, obviously, as you guided to sequential growth for Tinder payers for several quarters now. I think that guidance for 250,000 sequential increase, that's likely even a little stronger than most expectations. So just considering the exceptional nature of the time maybe BK or Gary, could you give us a little bit of a view in the Tinder payers trends so far in the third quarter through July and what gives you confidence in the trends that you're seeing right now? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure, Dan. I'm happy to try to do that. I would say that the momentum on Tinder payers has really been strengthening over the last several months. And when you look at Q2 as a whole on payers, the period was down sequentially by 78,000. But if we look kind of on a month-over-month basis inside that quarter, we've actually seen very solid sequential payer growth from April to May and May to June. And to your question, giving you a little sneak peek into Q3, we've actually seen continued payer strength from June into July. So I believe the sequential payer trends are very positive and that's what's giving us confidence that we're going to be able to have a strong period of sequential net adds for Tinder in Q3. Now it's only one month into the quarter. So I'll caution you, we still got work to do to get through August and September. So we're not done yet. But I believe that we're positioned to deliver on the 250,000 sequential net adds that we provided in our outlook, which would be an improvement in the year-over-year growth rate, which is really what I'm focused on, getting from negative 8% in Q2, which we just reported to something closer to negative 5% in Q3.
Dan Salmon:
Very helpful. Thanks, Gary.
Gary Swidler:
You're welcome.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ken Gawrelski of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Ken Gawrelski:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Appreciate the question. You noted maybe I'm going to draw you out, just try to draw you out a little bit more on 4Q because I know it's on a lot of investor minds. You noted that Tinder payer growth would continue to improve in 4Q from the minus 5% year-over-year in 3Q, but it would also be seasonally weaker than the 3Q plus 250,000 guide quarter-over-quarter. Do you expect Tinder payers to grow sequentially in 4Q based on where you sit today? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
So again, I'm going to try to return the thinking back to the year-over-year growth and the progress we're trying to make on payers in that regard and again, trying to get from negative 8% in Q2 to negative 5% in Q3. And even though we're not really at the point of providing Q4 outlook, saying that, as I said in the answer to the earlier question, we want to make more progress. We're expecting there to be more progress on a year-over-year basis in Q4. And so we think we'll do something better than negative 5% year-over-year in Q4. And I think if you do the math, you have to get, we have to get to something better than negative 1% in Q4 on a year-over-year basis to have sequential payer growth in the quarter. And I think that's a fairly tall order. I think that it's not off the table. I'm not going to take it off the table, but I think it's a fairly tall order. And frankly the outlook that we've provided for the full year doesn't assume that we're going to do better than that in Q4 and so that would exceed our current expectations. And again there's a significant amount of seasonality. If you look back on Tinder's performance over the years on payers, Q4 over Q3, even if you look at Hinge's performance on payers, Q4 over Q3 last year, if you remember, it was a weaker period than it has historically been because it is typical to see a seasonal pattern for the reasons that I explained in Jason's question. And so I just don't think that's the right way to look at it. You have to expect seasonal pressure Q4 over Q3 as people focus on the holidays, but I do expect to see continued improvement on a year-over-year basis. And I think it's important because that's what's going to position us for better performance going into Q1 on a year-over-year basis, payers revenue and position us for a stronger '25 than what we've had in 2024. And I think those are the important things to keep in mind.
Ken Gawrelski:
Thank you for the color.
Operator:
The next question comes from Chris Kuntarich of UBS. Please go ahead.
Chris Kuntarich:
Great. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe one around the new swipe gestures in Tinder and the refreshed Explore experience. Could you just frame how big of a product update this is versus the product refresh at the end of last year? And maybe the second part of this question would be, are you assuming any revenue upside from these product efforts in your '24 revenue guide? Thanks.
Bernard Kim:
Vertical swiping in Tinder is something that I'm super passionate about. I really believe it can lead to a more fulsome experience and deeper profile discovery. But when it comes to big changes in Tinder, these things do not happen overnight and they really need to be tested properly. For example, for swipe up, there is super valuable real estate given it currently has ALC connected to it. And then swipe down to Explore, we have an opportunity to really revamp the entire Explorer experience to make it more social, more alive and more fun. These iterative changes require deep testing. We have the right team that's on it and they're tireless around innovation, also making sure we understand the full impact to the ecosystem. I do think in '24, we did take a moment in time to evaluate the entire user experience. And I believe as well as the team believes that it can be a more elegant experience, and that's super important to our teams. Currently, right now, our central innovation team is working together with the Tinder team and leaning in on that user experience. And the things that I'm seeing from them are really exciting and I think it will lead to an overall better and more elegant experience.
Gary Swidler:
Maybe just on the part about revenue. I would say we have a lot of features planned to be tested at Tinder in the fourth quarter. They're not really expected to be revenue generators in Q4 for 2024. They're really being tested and positioned for 2025. So our revenue outlook for the year really doesn't depend on these features contributing in any meaningful way to 2024.
Chris Kuntarich:
Got it. Thanks for the color.
Gary Swidler:
You're welcome.
Operator:
The next question comes from Justin Patterson of KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Justin Patterson:
Great. Thank you. Good morning. BK, I was hoping you can touch on the Tinder ecosystem some more. Which inning are you in on improving trust, safety and user outcomes? And how have user perceptions changed over the past year? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Our ongoing effort with trust and safety are critical to the success of the long-term ecosystem at Tinder. When it comes to your question on what inning we're in, there literally is no end game. We're continually looking at improving user experiences. We have the best when it comes to trust and safety and platform and talent that are working on it. And we're making the right decisions every single day with a focus on better user outcomes. But this is not a linear journey and the work literally never ends. For example, we're continually thinking about big bold features like mandated face photos, which we are going to test and then also new technologies around authenticating users. As for perception improvement, it's something that we're really zeroed in on. And like we said in the letter and I'm going to try to do my best with regards to showcasing this impressive stat. But for women in the US aged 18 to 30, brand perception for Tinder is a place where I can find meaningful connections is up nearly 50%. And at the same time, Tinder's hookup stigma has fallen by 20%. This is tremendous progress with the demographic that our marketing teams are speaking directly to. So I'm really proud of these efforts.
Operator:
The next question comes from Cory Carpenter of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Thank you. Could you expand on the rationale and some of the math behind the exit of the live streaming business? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure, Cory. Why don't I take that one. I know there's a lot of moving pieces to this and it's a little bit complicated. So let me try to step through it. Just to clarify, first of all, we really have two pieces where we have live streaming. We've got a stand-on app, Hakuna, in Asia, which focuses on providing live streaming in Japan and Korea. And then we provide live streaming services alongside some of our dating business in PlentyOfFish primarily in a couple of the other US-based apps. And those are the businesses that we're planning to exit here in the third quarter. And what I would say on live streaming is they basically have the same types of expenses as we see in our other dating businesses. But there's one significant difference, which is we need to provide a revenue share to the live streamers. And that can be 20% or even more of the revenue. And so that's an extra expense that we really don't see in our dating business. And as a result of that, the margins in live streaming are probably in the 20s percent range for a business at that scale versus our dating business, which, as you know, can be 30% or higher from a margin perspective. So there's a significant difference in the economics of the live streaming business versus the dating business. In addition to them having lower margins, it's become much more challenging to grow live streaming in our apps over the last few years because there's been significant competition from very well-funded players including most of the big social media platforms and I, of course, point at TikTok as the most significant dominant player in the space. And so when we entered into live streaming a few years ago and the world was different, it was pre-COVID and everything else, but live streaming at that point, we thought provided an attractive kind of adjacent additional source of revenue for us. And right now, this year, we expected roughly a $60 million revenue contribution from live streaming. But growing that revenue base has become much, much more challenging in the face of the competition and the changed landscape and dynamics that we're facing. And not only that, but to reach the scale that we need to reach, to achieve even reasonable margins from our perspective, was going to take a significant amount of investment for a significant number of years, even in the best case scenario. And so when you boil it down, we felt that these businesses are not strategic to what we do. It's not likely, they're not likely to be revenue growth enhancing and they're likely to be margin dilutive for a long period of time. It makes more sense in our minds to exit those businesses now. And in fact, what we can do is, we can redeploy some of the great talent we have in these businesses into other businesses of ours where we have a much stronger position. And so we made that decision, and we're foregoing the $60 million of revenue which for next year probably will create a one to two point revenue growth headwind for us but these were AOI drags this year. And so when we look at the margin impact for next year, I think we can expect at least a 50 basis points improvement in the margins as a result of exiting these businesses. So we'll factor all that into everything else we're thinking about for next year, but the move to exit now should create a 50 basis point tailwind for us on the margin side. And the only other thing I wanted to make sure people are clear on, and BK alluded to it in his remarks, as a result of our decision to exit live streaming and some other things that we're doing around the portfolio, we're expecting to reduce our workforce by 6%, net of people that were moving into other businesses and that we're retaining. And so that should lead to $13 million of savings, which is on top of the savings that we've already talked about and that we're planning to achieve by full year 2026 from the replatforming at the E&E businesses. So I just want to make sure people understand all the moving pieces around the efficiencies because there are quite a few of them. So I hope that helps answer your question and I appreciate the question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ygal Arounian of Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Ygal Arounian:
Thanks. Good morning, guys. I want to shift to Hinge. We got a lot of questions from investors on Hinge's strengths and how to think about the difference there or the better than industry-level strength that we've seen consistently at Hinge. We're seeing acceleration here again this quarter. Can you -- I know you touched on it on the call a little bit, but can we expand on that a little bit. How much of what you're seeing is kind of simple market expansion, monetization expansion versus product initiatives and factors? What do you think the biggest product factors have been and what you're seeing there in the strength? And how does that inform the product road map that you're laying out for Hinge? Thanks.
Bernard Kim:
Hinge is an absolute rocket ship for Match Group, and it's on track to become a $1 billion plus revenue business. We're super pleased with its current performance and the continual investment in product as well as in marketing and global expansion. But the team is not resting on its laurels. We're continually building out new features and improving user experiences. Examples of that are things that are in test and fully rolled out like Top Photo and Photo Finder, which utilize best-in-class AI. I'm really impressed by the team's vision of incorporating AI into the full user experience and in every touch point of the Hinge user experience. Our future road map will utilize AI to really fulfill that Hinge's North Star around getting people on great dates even faster. So there's continued momentum and we're continuing to invest in Hinge's growth.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shweta Khajuria of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Shweta Khajuria:
Thank you. Let me try two please. BK, could you please talk about your conversations with Starboard the intra-quarter? There was a release, to the extent, that you can share, any commentary on that would very much appreciate it. And then, Gary, when we think about the third net adds for Tinder, could you please provide specific examples that give you confidence in this number in terms of is it the a la carte that -- the improvement in a la carte that's going to be helping? Is it unbundling an a la carte? Is it the product updates that you've made so far that will just be compounding? Could you help us parse that out in terms of what is contributing to the third quarter net adds? Thanks a lot.
Bernard Kim:
I can take the Starboard section, but we've had some initial interactions with Starboard, which were typical with interactions that we've had with other potential investors. Then as you all know, on July 15, they shared that they were a large shareholder and published a letter. Now we believe that the topics raised by Starboard are already key areas of focus for our teams and are things that we have actually heard from other significant shareholders as well. These three areas are returning Tinder to growth, improving margins and returning more capital to shareholders. We've been taking significant steps in all three of these areas, including investing in Tinder product and marketing to drive growth, reducing headcount and undertaking tech replatforming to drive margins and then redeploying 75% of our free cash flow to buy back shares. We continue to look forward to engaging with all of our shareholders and then getting their input on how we can continue to drive shareholder value.
Gary Swidler:
I think on the second part of the question, Shweta, you really have to think of kind of the trajectory of Tinder, as BK said earlier, of being driven by a series of things, not just one particular thing. And it's really on product and on marketing. And so we've cleaned up the ecosystem. That has helped. It's led to a stabilization now in users. That is helping the physics of the business in terms of payer trends et cetera. The marketing is really resonating. I think that the sense of Tinder is a place where people can meet people is really improving. The perception of the app continues to improve. All that marketing spend that we've done on the brand over the last year plus has really started to pay benefits. And so all of that is contributing as well as a series of product initiatives and things that we're doing, whether those are optimizations which we continue to do or whether those are other feature changes as well. And so it's really a bunch of things starting to work at Tinder, which frankly has been the plan all along that it was going to be a multifaceted approach that wasn't going to be one silver bullet, but rather be a series of initiatives, product and marketing working together to drive improvement at Tinder. And I think that's what you're really starting to see the fruits of here as we expect the third quarter to shape up.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay. Thanks, BK. Thanks, Gary.
Gary Swidler:
You're welcome.
Operator:
The next question comes from Benjamin Black of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Thank you for taking my question. Just one on capital allocation. So you've given a target of at least 75% for capital returns, but for the last two quarters, you returned more than 100%. So how are you thinking about the right amount here? And then would you potentially also consider a dividend? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Ben. Let me jump in and take that. Look, I think that 75% plus return is the right level for the company to commit to and that remains our stated commitment. But the Board evaluates the right amount for us to be deploying for buybacks on an ongoing basis. They are very involved in this aspect of the business. They look at our share price. They look at our business outlook. They look at a variety of factors and we try to make a determination of what the right level to buy back is. And as you rightly pointed out, we bought back just over 100% through the first half of the year. So we've been more aggressive. And obviously that was in part because our share price in our mind was very low relative to the opportunity we see for the company over the coming years. So it's not an immediate one quarter thing, but we think over the long-term, we're going to feel good about having bought a lot of stock back at these levels. And so we factor all of that in and we'll continue to do so as we move forward. As far as the dividend goes, it's an interesting question. As you're probably aware, some very successful large growth companies have implemented dividends over the last little while. And we think it's a logical thing to do as a component of the capital return. So dividends working alongside buybacks to drive return for shareholders. It's something that we have thought about and continue to think about, but we don't think that now is the time to do it and we're steadfastly focused on buybacks at this point in time. So that is unchanging at the moment. But if there's updates in our thinking, we'll certainly convey it to you all.
Benjamin Black:
Very helpful. Thank you very much.
Gary Swidler:
I think we have time maybe for one more question after Ben. So why don't we just try to get that in here quickly.
Operator:
The next question comes from Curtis Nagle of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Curtis Nagle:
Great. Thanks so much for squeezing me in. So just returning back to Hinge. How do we think about the gross prospects and timing and I guess probability in that $1 billion plus in revenue, outperformed in 2Q, 3Q guide ahead? In the letter, I think you said you're now targeting to be the number two brand that's new. To me, I think, it suggests you're more confident in growth. So is that fair and just how should we think through all that?
Gary Swidler:
Yes. Thanks for the question. Look, I think, that's right what you say that our confidence in the Hinge platform has been increasing over the last little while. And I think most of that is really driven as we look at the user trends and the fact that Hinge continues to move up in the rankings in various countries and regions from a downloads perspective, which is telling us that the product really continues to resonate. It's a differentiated product. People really like using that product and continue to see it as a go-to product. And that's really having effect on the overall dating landscape as well as improving our confidence in the prospects for Hinge. So when we look at the ability for Hinge to be a $1 billion business in a few years, we absolutely think it's there and we're driving towards that. And something that I would just point out, which I'm not sure people fully appreciate is at Hinge, which is on track to deliver well over $500 million of revenue this year, derives less than 10% of its revenue from its European expansion market. So we've been spending a lot of money in those markets to drive awareness and that is clearly working, but the revenue has really just started to trickle in. And so it shows sort of the opportunity for us to have a much bigger business at Hinge in these European markets. And it also shows the nature of our business, which is we make these investments initially and plant the seed, so to speak, and then we're going to harvest them down the road. And that's what's happening in Hinge, which obviously, over time will be accretive to margins as well. So that is kind of the business that we're in planting the seeds for future harvesting. Hinge is a great example. We're about to start doing that at Azar as well, and we'll continue to do that where we see opportunities. And that's what drives the future revenue growth. So I'm going to leave it there just because we are out of time, but hopefully, that mostly at least addresses your question. And I'll just thank everyone for having joined us this morning. We appreciate everybody's time. Enjoy the rest of your summer and we'll talk to you all soon.
Operator:
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.
I would like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Tanny Shelburne:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions.
Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. During this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in the shareholder letter on our IR website. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results. With that, I'd like to turn over the call to BK.
Bernard Kim:
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. I know much of our discussion today will focus on near-term trends and challenges. Both Gary and I will address those headwinds, and we will discuss it in Q&A. And while some of the current trends are challenging, it does not dissuade us from what we believe is long-term opportunity.
So I want to start with the big picture and that opportunity. As we look at the state of the dating industry today, one thing remains very clear. For those daters looking to go on a date and meet someone in real life, our apps empower people to make meaningful connections like no other platform. In today's dating scene, many people still hold onto that nostalgic, romantic idea of meeting someone organically. However, the reality is that chances for a spontaneous meet-cute are becoming increasingly rare. Even in settings like bars, where social interactions are expected, single daters looking to meet someone are actually on their phones using apps to navigate their social and romantic lives. Our apps are strategically designed to bridge this gap, leveraging technology to serve as a springboard to get you on a great date that may not have happened otherwise. That's why dating apps have become the primary way people meet today, particularly in more developed markets like the U.S. and Western Europe. Surprisingly, there are still so many people who don't use our apps and many more who aren't actively dating, creating a massive opportunity and a significant runway for growth, as we aim to redefine the meet-cute and create safer places for all singles to find a meaningful connection. Over the last few years, we've made meaningful progress at Match Group. Our brands have executed against well-defined product and marketing initiatives. Tinder continues to be an iconic brand worldwide and the entry point to dating for each new generation. Hinge has been a standout, demonstrating tremendous growth based on their brand promise for intention daters to get out on great dates. We are more confident than ever that the business is well on its way to generating $1 billion in revenue. Hinge is resonating well in markets that we've entered and being very thoughtful about the user experience to help ensure that we're building a great community and truly delivering on our mission. We've launched several new apps tailored at select demographics, where we see real potential, and these platforms within our emerging brands portfolio have performed very well. In particular, we want to call out the progress on Archer, which is focused on gay men and demonstrating really strong momentum. The app recently hit more than 700,000 downloads since it launched last year. Engagement is up even more, growing triple digits, which indicates that we have a strong ecosystem and users who are loving it. I also want to point out that we've achieved this growth without significantly increasing our investment in marketing since the beginning of the year. The Archer team has revved up and continues to innovate the user experience to make it the most dynamic and engaging app for this community. Across the portfolio, we've continued to deploy resources more efficiently. The Hyperconnect team is working on projects with most of our other businesses and has fantastic talent that we believe will continue to add value to our various brands. Now we get a lot of questions about monthly active users, and I want to remind everyone that our businesses approach is very different from other social platforms. Our goal is to see real single users find a date and then get off of our apps. We focus on attracting singles who want to make real connections and satisfying our daters who are earnest in their intentions by delivering great experiences. Tinder's international scale and reach has never been matched by any other dating app, and it's critical that we keep the ecosystem vibrant. For example, Tinder took decisive action by changing its community guidelines and moderation practices mid last year, which better enabled the removal of users who are not on the app for its intended purposes. While the improvements to the ecosystem and benefits to the brand are undeniable, these actions did contribute to some of Tinder's MAU declines over the past 9 months. We believe that actions like these are in the best interest of Tinder's long-term success, so we are willing to accept fewer MAU in the short term to create a safer ecosystem and better outcomes for our daters. Diving a little deeper into Tinder, we have heard loud and clear that some users, especially the Gen Z cohort, are looking for more from their dating apps. We have been in this business a long time, and we have consistently adapted our offerings to best serve the needs of different generations. And we understand and recognize that expectations of apps are changing. Tinder is working tirelessly to execute against their strategy, and I'm incredibly confident in the team's ability to satisfy these evolving expectations that users have. By the end of the year, we expect to have a significantly improved product. Similarly, pressures on discretionary consumer spending, especially among Tinder's younger user base, have negatively impacted Tinder's a la carte revenue. The team is doubling down on its efforts to improve the efficacy of its current ALC features and introduce new offerings at affordable price points. We expect to see improvements in ALC trends by the back half of the year. We know we have work to do to satisfy every new generation of daters. The Tinder team is working to improve the dating journey at every point of the experience. Through innovation, especially with AI, we believe we can improve the quality of profiles, matching outcomes, safety features and the post-match experience to make the entire Tinder platform more modern and deliver on their brand promise. I've asked our Chief Technology Officer and his central innovation team to work even more closely with Tinder's product team to expedite all these efforts, which are underway. And given Tinder's vast scale and knowledge about relationships and dating, there is no dating app better positioned to take advantage of these advances in technology. Tinder has become an industry-defining, highly profitable business over the past decade. We have been innovating to solve some of the user pain points. As a result, we will have a healthier, more satisfying and, ultimately, more valuable experience for daters to enjoy. And I am confident that Tinder's momentum will come back. We believe we have real market opportunity and the right teams and strategies in place to get to that next level of growth, and we are determined to deliver that for all of our stakeholders. We continue to see significant growth runway at Hinge and our emerging brands portfolio. We're executing on our turnaround plan for Tinder, and our central innovation teams are bringing renewed vigor to product innovation. We are excited to continue this work, as giving people new exciting ways to connect is what motivates us every day. And with that, let me turn it over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, BK, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. Our business demonstrated strong financial performance to start the year with FX-neutral results coming in ahead of our expectations.
Match Group's total revenue was $860 million, up 9% year-over-year and 12% FX neutral in Q1. Revenue per payer grew 16%, while payers declined 6% year-over-year. We experienced $2 million more in FX headwinds than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call. We generated $267 million of free cash flow in the quarter. Tinder likewise delivered 9% year-over-year direct revenue growth, 12% FX neutral. Hinge grew direct revenue 50% year-over-year, ahead of our expectations for the second consecutive quarter. MG Asia's and Evergreen & Emerging Brands direct revenue declined 6% and 4%, respectively, year-over-year, although MG Asia was up 7% FX neutral. Azar grew direct revenue 20% year-over-year FX neutral. The emerging brands collectively grew direct revenue 23% year-over-year. We welcomed some new demographically focused apps to the E&E portfolio. Archer continued to show strong user growth, as BK mentioned, and the app experience continued to evolve to better satisfy the target audience. Q1 Tinder direct revenue was $481 million, driven by RPP that increased 20% year-over-year to $16.52, due to the effects of the U.S. price optimizations and weekly packages we rolled out starting in late Q1 2023. There was better stability at the top of the funnel at Tinder in the first quarter, with new users down only 4% year-over-year on a like-for-like basis, factoring in that we exited 2 countries. While Tinder also experienced a decline in monthly active users in the quarter, the decisions we made to change Tinder's policies and moderation practices starting last summer to enable easier elimination of users who are not on the app to really connect led to an approximately 2 million decline in Tinder MAU. This decline included bad actors and users who were some of the least engaged on the platform. We will fight this comp all year, but we'll have it fully anniversaried by the end of 2024. We believe that these actions are beneficial to the overall ecosystem health, and we are already seeing signs of improvement in key engagement metrics that we track. For example, Tinder's ratio of daily active users to monthly active users reached some of its highest levels, well north of 40% in Q1, an improvement of 14 basis points versus Q1 of last year. Although impactful to MAU, we believe this was the right decision for the ecosystem. Tinder's payers declined 9% year-over-year in Q1 to just under 10 million, and we're down 255,000 sequentially, just slightly worse than our expectations. While growth in subscription revenue at Tinder was strong at 17% year-over-year, primarily due to the increase in RPP, Tinder continued to experience pressure on a la carte revenue, which was down 13% year-over-year in the quarter. We believe the decline in ALC revenue stems from user declines and lower average purchase volumes, in part due to weaker consumer discretionary spending among its younger user base, among other reasons. The weaker growth in ALC is a continuation of a trend that has been going on for a while now, but has been becoming more severe of late. Our Hinge brand continues to perform very well. Hinge direct revenue was $124 million in Q1. Hinge payers were up 31% year-over-year to 1.4 million, while RPP of nearly $29 was up 14% year-over-year. Hinge's downloads continued to be strong in both core English-speaking and Western European markets, growing approximately 20% year-over-year globally in Q1. We're confident that Hinge is in the very early stages of its monetization efforts, with payer penetration defined as payers to monthly active users just above half that at Tinder, providing ample room for expansion. The user growth trends, global expansion opportunities and monetization runway give us optimism around Hinge's long-term outlook. We believe Hinge is on track to become a $1 billion revenue business. Match Group's Q1 AOI was $279 million, up 6% year-over-year for a margin of 33%. Operating income was $185 million in Q1, down 7% year-over-year for a margin of 21%. Q1 Match Group AOI and OI each benefited from the increase in revenue as a result of growth at Tinder and Hinge, partially offset by an expected nearly $30 million or 20% year-over-year increase in selling and marketing expenses and an increase in cost of revenue due to higher app store fees. The increase in selling and marketing spend was primarily at Tinder, Hinge and certain emerging brands, offset by declines in marketing spend at multiple other brands. Operating income was further impacted by increased SBC expense due to increased hiring activity to support product development efforts, unusually high forfeitures in the prior year period and other factors. While SBC expense rose, the grant value of awards to employees was approximately flat year-over-year, as we focus on controlling the level of new equity awards to employees, which impacts future period SBC expense. Additionally, OI was impacted by a 94% year-over-year increase in depreciation expense due to increases in internally developed software placed in service, including at Tinder and Hyperconnect. We repurchased approximately $200 million of our shares in Q1 at an average price of approximately $35 per share on a trade day basis, reducing our share count by approximately 6 million. This represented a deployment of roughly 75% of our Q1 free cash flow, delivering on our commitment to deploy more than 50% of our free cash flow for share repurchases. With our net leverage below our target at 2.3x and $800 million remaining on our share buyback authorization, we expect to continue returning at least 75% of our free cash flow to shareholders for the remainder of the year. For Q2 '24, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $850 million to $860 million, up 2% to 4% year-over-year and 5% to 6% FX neutral. We expect direct revenue at Tinder to be $475 million to $480 million in Q2, flat to up 1% year-over-year, up 3% to 4% FX neutral. The user growth and ALC revenue headwinds at Tinder, plus the effect of the anniversary of various monetization initiatives we implemented starting in late Q1 of last year, are impacting Tinder's direct revenue growth rate, which is below our target for the business. The Tinder team is focused on implementing monetization initiatives to strengthen revenue growth. These initiatives include revisions to existing ALC features and introducing new offerings. We expect our product work to lead to significantly better year-over-year trends in ALC revenue in the back half of this year. These initiatives are in addition to the extensive work being done to improve the app experience and the health of the ecosystem. We expect Tinder payers to decline at similar rates year-over-year in Q2 as they did in Q1, leading to a modest improvement in sequential payer trends in Q2 compared to Q1. We continue to anticipate positive sequential payer additions at Tinder in Q3. Across our other brands, we expect Q2 direct revenue of $360 million to $365 million, up 5% to 7% year-over-year, 8% to 10% FX neutral. Within our other brands, we expect Hinge to deliver $125 million to $130 million of direct revenue in Q2, year-over-year growth of 38% to 44%. We expect Match Group AOI of $300 million to $305 million in Q2, roughly flat year-over-year, and margin of 35% at the midpoints of the ranges. We expect overall Q2 marketing spend to be about $25 million higher than in the prior year quarter, largely due to increased spend at Hinge, Tinder and some E&E brands. We opted into Apple's new app store policies in the EU on April 1, so we expect at least $5 million per quarter of IAP fee savings going forward, assuming no further changes in app store policies. We're complying with our settlement agreement with Google, which requires us to adopt Google Play billing, user choice billing and/or developer-only billing across our brands. This change is creating some modest conversion headwinds for us, but we're working to adjust to this new reality, and Google is making improvements on their end as well. Reflecting our Q2 expectations and the latest trends at Tinder, we currently expect low single-digit year-over-year direct revenue growth rates at Tinder for the remaining quarters of 2024, although they could be higher if some of the product initiatives deliver or ALC revenue or other trends improve beyond our current expectations. This updated rest-of-year outlook leads us to anticipate low to mid-single-digit year-over-year direct revenue growth for Tinder for full year 2024. Given this, for the full year, we expect total company revenue growth to be near the lower end of our previously stated 6% to 9% year-over-year total revenue growth target range, unless there is a material over-delivery of our expectations by our other brands, particularly Hinge. For both Tinder and the whole company, we currently expect FX to be about a 1 point year-over-year headwind in the back half of the year. We remain focused on delivering AOI margin of at least 36% for Match Group in 2024. We are continuously evaluating the previously disclosed investments in marketing and product innovation at Tinder, Hinge and in new experiences and will adjust as appropriate. Our outlook is for Match Group to generate nearly $1.1 billion of free cash flow in 2024, and we expect to utilize at least 75% of our free cash flow for capital return for the remainder of the year. We believe that at our current stock price, our shares remain the best investment we can make with our capital. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.
Benjamin Black:
Great. It'd be great to hear what's giving you confidence that Tinder net adds will return to sequential growth in the third quarter, despite the steady decline in payers we're seeing today. And is there something that you're seeing maybe as it pertains to conversion trends that you can point us to that is providing this optimism?
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Ben, for the question. First of all, in terms of trends that we're seeing at Tinder, I just want to point out a few different things.
So first of all, conversion has improved dramatically, and that's in part because we've lowered pricing -- sorry, we raised pricing -- sorry, we rolled out weekly subscription packages, which, as a result of that, are lower prices, and that has led to improved conversion, right? But those subscribers that are signing up for the weekly subscription packages are there for a shorter duration period, so they're in the payer count for less time. So that's one of the trends that's going on inside of the business. We also have declining user base. We have declining MAU. And so we need conversion to work harder. We need to generate more payers on a smaller user base. So those are the trends that are happening. If you look at the payers on a year-over-year basis, we talked about how payers declined 9% in the first quarter, and we expect payers to decline at a similar level in the second quarter. I think if you do the math, you'll see that we need the product initiatives that we have planned at Tinder to improve the user trends and to improve conversion sufficiently that the 9% year-over-year decline in payers improves a little bit to 8% or 7%. If that happens, the math would show you that you get sequential payer improvement in the third quarter at Tinder. And so that's what we're focused on. I think we have enough initiatives, enough product work going on to improve MAU, to drive up conversion such that we should see the sequential improvement in payers by Q3. And the other thing I would point out, which I think is probably obvious, but just want to make sure, is that we've had a lot of noise in the Tinder payer count, especially sequentially, as a result of all of the payer actions we've taken on price changes, weekly subscriptions, et cetera. It's created a lot of noise for the last little while. We're largely getting that behind us now, right? The big changes that were made in the U.S., which were very significant, happened starting in the late first quarter of last year and really affected the second quarter. So the payer count information should start to get a lot smoother, a lot easier to understand. There will be less significant changes going forward. And so I think the metrics will be much more clear for people. So we're looking forward to that as well.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nathan Feather with Morgan Stanley.
Nathaniel Feather:
So when thinking about how to reignite user growth at Tinder, are there any case studies you draw on internally from the rest of your portfolio, especially with some brands now around for 3 decades? Are brands successfully evolve the product to appeal to the next generation? And how do you incorporate your learnings from that for where Tinder is at today?
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Nathan, for that question. Sure. We have a lot of great examples across the portfolio of products that show true evolution. We've consistently seen that true product innovation can lead to material impacts on the user experience. We know that this can appeal to new demographics and expand the total industry. Our portfolio of brands, which have existed for more than 10-plus years, is a major benefit.
Years ago, OkCupid introduced the freemium model, which gained traction with late millennials who have not yet embraced the hard paywall business, like Match.com or Hinge. When Hinge launched, it was based on connecting friends of friends for dating. But eventually, Hinge's growth stalled. So they did a full product tear down, which was a really big and bold tough decision and redesigned Hinge from the ground up to focus on creating great dates in an app that's designed to be deleted. And users around the world are now flocking to Hinge. And if you look at Tinder, it was a massive innovation for the whole category. Tinder took the mobile phone and created an unprecedented experience that everyone loved. We talk about the Swipe, but the double opt-in was also a category changer for women who are suddenly in much more control of the attention that they receive. So we know what works, but also know what doesn't work. We're listening to our young daters today and working to address their needs. What we've learned from all of these lessons across the portfolio and the learnings that we have from our users is that product changes that we need to make need to be big and bold to drive real change. We can't make small little changes to product and expect a massive impact. We're really lucky because we have people across the entire company that have launched products, love building them and are super motivated to capture the opportunity ahead. So we're going full steam ahead on our strategy, and we're confident that it's going to work.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ken Gawrelski with Wells Fargo.
Kenneth Gawrelski:
You maintained the margin guidance for the full year, despite revenue expected to come in toward the lower end of previous expectations. It would seem from the outside that you should take the opportunity to invest more in marketing and get Tinder back -- Tinder net payer growth in 3Q. What are we missing here? Why not be more aggressive here at this point?
Bernard Kim:
Great question, Ken. Like we said earlier, it's really the product experience that needs to resonate, first and foremost. While marketing is a component of top of funnel growth, it needs to be combined with evolving product experience that resonates with users.
The answer to your question is that we really don't see a compelling reason to increase marketing to achieve payer growth. It really needs to come from product innovation. Our marketing today is much more about improving the Tinder brand narrative and making sure that Tinder is top of mind for daters. While we do expect this to have some positive impact on users, particularly women and Gen Z, it's not a lever we can pull to drive short-term payer growth. And remember, Tinder's marketing spend is more about brand marketing and not direct response. So it isn't about spending more just to simply hit a quarterly payer number. Thanks for the question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.
Jason Helfstein:
Maybe I'll ask, and some of this you did allude to, but maybe elaborate. So what's changed specifically since February at Tinder, which is driving the low to mid-teens -- or low to mid-teen revenue -- or the low to mid-single-digit revenue growth versus the prior 6% to 8% as subs are still expected to turn positive in the third quarter?
Just elaborate. I mean, obviously, you talked about some of the kind of safety things you've done to the platform, but just elaborate a little bit more.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Why don't I take a shot at that, Jason? So a couple of things have changed. I mean, one, our year-over-year payer growth expectations have come down a little bit, right? We had the negative 9% in the first quarter, and we're predicting something similar. We'd like to see obviously improvement in that metric.
As I mentioned to Ben, we're confident that all the product initiatives and things we have going on will lead to that in the third quarter. So that's what we really need to see. And I would point out sort of two specific things that have really changed since we did our last earnings call. The first thing, and we talked a little bit about this in the letter and the remarks, the first thing is that we've seen increasing ALC weakness in this economic environment at Tinder. And so that's putting pressure on revenue because the purchase volume that a user is making is lower than it was previously. So we have initiatives in place to try to resolve that, but that's a critical driver of revenue, and that's putting more pressure on revenue than what we expected 3 months ago. And then because we have declining MAU, and I talked about how we need to drive conversion, we need initiatives to really drive the revenue growth. And so we have those going in a number of different ways across the world, but those have been delivering a little bit less than what we were expecting when we last provided the outlook in February. So we need those initiatives to work a little bit harder. And we'd like to see obviously improvement in MAU as well. That would help offset some of the pressures we've seen. So those are the things that have really moved the ALC degradation, a little bit more severe headwind there, and the fact that some of our monetization initiatives have been under delivering a bit versus what we'd like to see. But as I said to Ben, if we can get modest improvement in year-over-year payer growth, that will still lead to the sequential payer growth in Q3. And so sequential payer growth in and of itself doesn't lead to year-over-year revenue growth. We need to see year-over-year payer growth and year-over-year revenue per payer growth combined. That's what leads to year-over-year revenue growth. And so that's what we need to make sure is working the way we wanted to.
Operator:
The next question comes from Chris Kuntarich with UBS.
Christopher Kuntarich:
Great. Maybe one around your product efforts. Last year was more focused on pricing, and now that focus seems to be shifting towards product tweaks that should be driving more conversion events.
Can you just talk to us about the visibility you have into those monetizations from last year versus the conversion-focused product tweaks ahead of you.
Bernard Kim:
I'll take that one. Last year, we implemented a number of monetization initiatives, which we know how to do really well, and we have a great team behind it. That drove short-term revenue growth at Tinder.
But to really achieve long-term growth at Tinder, we need to reimagine the product to better satisfy women and Gen Z. This is a much more significant undertaking for sustained long-term growth and less certain than implementing monetization, optimizations and initiatives. We are confident that we have the right team in place, and we're focused on this. And a series of planned initiatives that we will deliver to improve the product experience, we feel really strong about. This will drive user growth, payer growth and revenue growth over time. So to be clear, what we're talking about is not really a series of conversion tweaks, but a longer-term strategic undertaking. Thanks for that question, Chris.
Operator:
The next question comes from Dan Salmon with New Street Research.
Daniel Salmon:
Okay. Great. I'd like to talk AI a little bit and just first to ask about any of the early learnings you've seen from the tests of the AI photo selector on Tinder. And I think the wording in the letter was about launching it more widely in the summer. Just curious if you had a little bit more details on the time line, if that's first half of the year or later on in the summer months.
And then maybe just more broadly here, your view around AI development around the company BK mentioned. So Hyperconnect has been helping a lot of businesses. And I know AI is a specialty there. I'm sure Will Wu has got a lot of attention, a lot of his time focused on this. But just more broadly, how you're thinking about the road map for AI-based products across your suite of apps.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks for that question. I absolutely love talking about AI and photo selector, and we'll work closely with our Hyperconnect team in conjunction with our Tinder team to create this great feature that we think is really scalable.
And to really go back to that dater experience, when a dater makes a decision to download Tinder or one of our other apps, they're really putting themselves out there. And the first step that we ask daters to do is create a profile. That immediately can be a barrier to entry. Some of our users can kind of put their hands up in the air and say, "Okay, I'll do that later." But we now can help a person create a profile using AI and overcome that barrier. We're testing it right now, and we're launching this summer. Now I've tried it myself, and I personally have over 10,000 photos on my phone, and I wouldn't even know where to start if I were building my own dating profile. The photo selector magically chooses 10 photos for me, goes through all 10,000 photos in less than a minute, and then actually ended up showing parts of my personality that I wouldn't have really thought to showcase. Based on the 10 photos that they picked, my profile would show that I went to a Taylor Swift concert, love to cook, and I love my dog. If I was doing this on my own, I'd probably just stick my corporate headshot, which is an okay photo, but it really doesn't tell much about me. If we can help people create better profiles, we believe that this is going to get to better matches and have better conversations, which lead to better outcomes. This is just one example of the power of AI, and we plan to expand on this throughout the entire dating journey. Thanks for that question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc.
Justin Patterson:
Great. I just wanted to ask about Hinge. You had outlined the path to $1 billion in the letter, so appreciate that. I wanted to actually dive in the margins around that. Just as we see Hinge scale moving towards that $1 billion revenue target, how do you think about margin potential there?
Are you going to get closer to Tinder over time? And then just maybe perhaps an update on where Hinge's margins are today. I know in the past, you'd signaled that those were approaching the corporate average. So curious if that is still the case.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Justin. Why don't I take that? So Hinge margins are expected to be in the high 20s percent range for the year. So short of the corporate number, and they're about stable with where they were last year.
And I would point out really a couple of things going on that are affecting the Hinge margins. The first thing is we're making a significant investment in marketing really across all of the markets that Hinge is focused on. So there are 17 markets, we're not making every single one. But there's a significant effort going on, on the marketing side to build brand awareness, especially in these newer European countries. And the revenue generation lags that. So it's an investment, and the revenue will start to help generate operating leverage for the business over time. We're generating more revenue from Europe this year than we did last year, and that will continue to grow. So that's one thing that's going to lead to improved margins at Hinge over time. The second thing is we're making a big investment in people there. We continue to expand headcount, particularly in product development, to continue to build out a better and better product experience. And so that investment is happening upfront, but those investments should lead to revenue generation, which also should lead to operating leverage over time. And so I'm confident that as Hinge scales, the investments that we're making in marketing, the investments in people will pay off, and the margins will start to approach company levels. I think we have a good line of sight to get there. Where exactly Hinge's margins land is really going to depend on how fast and how big that business scales to. So the more scale it achieves, the more I have confidence that margins will continue to improve. I think there's a path to get company level. I think there's a path that could they be -- that they could be higher, but we'll have to see how that plays out and at what rate that, that plays out. I would tell you that Hinge margins, Hinge is investing more in marketing dollars than Tinder does, and that's because Tinder has such a high level of brand awareness in all the markets where it operates. It was a big viral sensation when it burst onto the scene. It hasn't had to spend the marketing dollars that others who came after it, including Hinge, have had to do. So I think Hinge is always going to have margins that are below Tinder's level. For that reason, we are spending a little bit more marketing at Tinder. And so the gap is closing a little bit as Hinge improves its margin. But I do believe that, that's the dynamic we had, that Tinder is the higher-margin business, but -- that Tinder is a higher margin business, but that Hinge will be somewhere around company margins. And that all assumes no change in app store fees, which, of course, could be a big margin driver as well. So we'll see how that all plays out. But those are the dynamics that I see as Hinge continues to grow and mature.
Operator:
The next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.
Cory Carpenter:
Gary, could you expand on how you're planning to maintain your 36% or better margin target this year, despite the softer revenue outlook? And more broadly, are there any incremental areas you've identified to reduce costs?
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Happy to take that. So first of all, I would say, early in the year, we provided an outlook of 6% to 9% total company year-over-year revenue growth. And we were prepared to deliver 36% margins, even at the low end of that.
So what happened in terms of the performance thus far this year, we still have a plan to get to 36% margins, even if we're toward the lower end of our previously stated total company revenue range. Now obviously, we need to prepare for contingencies, and I'm not expecting this to happen. But if there were further deterioration to maintain that margin level, we have to take some additional actions. And so to your question, the first place we would look are things that don't impact revenue significantly. So corporate overhead, as an example, we would look to try to adjust areas that won't impact revenue generation. I don't think there's massive opportunity in those kinds of areas because we've been judicious and we've been fiscally responsible for a while. But that's a place that we could definitely look. After that, you start to get into areas that have more effect on revenue. So marketing would be one. Obviously, we have a very large marketing budget, over $500 million for the year. We try to be very judicious with marketing across the businesses. We monitor for a return on that investment, of course. But the good news is, we don't lock in to a lot of marketing commitments. And to the extent we have to make adjustments there, we can and we can be very nimble. But again, there could be knock-on effects on revenue generation if we adjust marketing. I think we're pretty well optimized on the marketing side. So that -- but that would be another place to look. It's a big expense line for us. And then as we talked about a lot on the last earnings call and people are aware, we've got a number of innovation bets that are going on right now, that are critical to driving future growth. Those tend to be very margin dilutive in the early years because we're making investments in those businesses and they're pre-revenue. So in the event that we needed to find other places to look at, we would look at all those bets even more carefully. We are consistently reevaluating them. But that would be perhaps a luxury that we would not have as much of. Again, there would be knock-on effects on revenue in the future years, on growth in the future years if we curtailed some of those, but we'd have to look at that. So those are the trade-offs that you have to make. And obviously, they get tougher and tougher if things were to deteriorate. So we're -- the job one is really to generate improved trends, improved revenue growth and avoid the need to take any further cost actions.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citi.
Ygal Arounian:
I want to follow up on the product side and particularly around women and Gen Z. For women, you called out better product recommendations, better outcomes there. And you're calling out here and talking on the call a lot about being bolder on the product side.
So can you just help us understand what that means on the bolder side? What are the product expectations around the women and Gen Z and how we should think about that? And then on the safety side, with losing MAUs, as you did that and kind of cleaned up some of that, I understand the impacts on the MAU loss. How should we think about, not the comps year-over-year, but how you expect that to drive improvement over time and how we should see that?
Bernard Kim:
Great question. Gen Z and women, and women's experience, in particular, is our top priority. They are literally the most critical demographic for all dating apps. We know that women need to feel empowered and respected when they're on our apps. We have a series of initiatives to improve outcomes for women to make sure they're getting great matches.
Now on the trust and safety side, we have a very aggressive approach to removing bad actors, especially when we get reports from users. But recently, as we mentioned in the letter and in my opening remarks, we changed Tinder's community guidelines to remove people from Tinder who weren't there to date. Whether they're trying to grow their social media following or not very active, they had negative impacts on user perception of the Tinder product. So we made this change. And as Gary said, we think we lost about 2 million MAU, but it was the right call for Tinder because it's more important that we're delivering great matches and authentic users and also getting them out to meet in real life. These trade-ups are important, and the team has continued to evaluate and make hard decisions if it yields a healthier ecosystem. I'm going to give you an example. Tinder is going to start requiring face photos. We believe that will be great for the ecosystem because it will increase the authenticity of people's profiles. But we also think that it's very likely to impact MAU, as we weed out some people who are really not there to date or it actually creates extra time to get comfortable with this change. However, as I talked about earlier, AI photo selector will help make selecting photos easier, and we believe this will minimize the impact on MAU. This is something that we'll test and monitor, but we obviously think this is the right call for the user experience and the wider ecosystem. Thanks for that question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jian Li with Evercore ISI.
Jian Li:
A couple. First, if you can talk about the macro assumptions that came to this guide. Are you assuming that what you're seeing today in macro persist? And any improvement in payer growth has purely driven off, say, pricing optimization on product development?
And also one on E&E. This interesting call-out on Archer, if you can double-click on -- is the growth mostly coming from user and conversion? Or any particular price action you've taken? And what -- how should we think about growth driver for this product or for Emerging in general the next year, just given your comments in the letter of Emerging starting to offset Evergreen potentially next year?
Gary Swidler:
So let me jump in and take some of those. I mean, first of all, at Archer, I would just point out, it's a pre-revenue business. So really, what's happening is that we're seeing strong user growth. We haven't yet gotten to the point where we're monetizing that business.
I think that can come in the relative short term because the key thing to enable us to monetize is -- it is to grow users sufficiently if there's liquidity in the market. We're getting to that point, where we have enough users, daters on that app, and so we can start to roll out some initial monetization features. So that is part of the strategy. And as you asked about, I would think about the Emerging brands as a series of businesses, a series of bricks that are kind of stacked on top of each other. So we've got a number of demographic apps in that portfolio, and we're generating more and more revenue because we're stacking more and more bricks of demographically focused apps. So we have one focused on the [ Asian community ], we have one focus on the Hispanic community, one focused on the Black community, one focused on the gay male community. And all of those are generating revenue, and that's a growing pool of demographically tailored apps generating revenue. And obviously, as we get Archer to the monetization stage, that will be a bigger piece of the equation. And so we've got moderating declines going on at the Evergreen brands because we're managing those businesses to a sort of managed decline or a reasonable level of decline. And we're able to generate enough revenue in the Emerging brands now to basically offset the declines that we see consistently in the Evergreen brand. So that's what's happening in the E&E brand as a whole. And what we're trying to do is reduce redundancies there, use a common tech platform and be as efficient as possible and drive as strong margins as we can in that business. We're taking out a significant amount of cost, we've estimated $60 million. And so we'll have a business that should start to grow again modestly if that all comes to fruition at margins that will be quite attractive from the corporate perspective. That's the goal in the E&E businesses. I think you also asked the question about macro trends, and what I would say is we're not assuming a significant change in macro, which is really having the effect on Tinder ALC. So that's where it's relevant. In the Tinder ALC, what we're trying to do there is find other ways to offset the macro trends by adding offerings, by adjusting offerings, by offering things at different price points, all of those things together to offset the headwinds we're seeing. But for the rest of the year, we're not assuming significant changes in the macro environment. But we've done this once before. If you remember way back when, we adjusted the way we were merchandising a la carte offerings at Tinder because we started to see some pushback on them. We were offering more expensive bundles in a weaker economic environment, and so we adjusted our merchandising. And we're looking at similar kinds of changes again to adapt to a tougher macro environment, adjusting the pricing, adjusting what we offer and how we offer it, so we think we can improve the demand and cater better to the current economic climate, especially among those younger users at Tinder. So hopefully, that responds to your questions.
Operator:
The next question comes from James Heaney with Jefferies.
James Heaney:
In the letter, you reiterated your confidence in sequential payer growth in Q3 and slowing user declines in the back half of the year. So I'm just curious what this would imply for Q4 payers and things that you can talk about Q1.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Thanks, James. Happy to take the question. And so we're expecting -- as I talked about as it related to Q3 sequential payer adds, we're expecting improved year-over-year payer growth as the year goes on.
We haven't seen that yet, but it's critical that we generate that through their product initiatives to drive conversion and/or MAU improvement. And so we are -- we need to be on the path to see improving year-over-year payer growth as the quarters go on. I still think that we have a path to get to year-over-year payer growth in Q4, but obviously, the weaker trends at the beginning of the year make that path a bit tougher. And so we have more wood to chop to get there by Q4, and we need initiatives at Tinder to drive us to that outcome. I do want to say that I'm sure you understand this, but there seems to be some confusion between users on the one hand and payers on the other hand, so I want to explain how we use those terms. We talk about new users at Tinder, which really means registrations, new sign-ups. Sometimes, downloads are used as a substitute for that, and reactivations. That's new users at Tinder. And we also talk about MAU, which we referred to here. Collectively, all of that is users or user growth at Tinder, and that is critical to be able to drive improved trends. And so we're very focused on initiatives to do that. Improvement in users, in new users or users collectively at Tinder is what will enable us to drive year-over-year payer growth.because, obviously, payers come as users improve. There's a lag, but people sign up. They're on the platform, and we ultimately convert them into payers. And so those things are related. So the fact that we believe we can get stronger user growth in the back half of the year through all of our product initiatives, app, ecosystem cleanup, et cetera, should generate improved payer growth as well. Maybe we won't get quite to it at the very end of this year. It may go into next year, but we're right now positioned to see improved payer growth in Q4 and then going into Q1 as well. And so that bodes well for the longer-term trends in the business because as we improve the user growth and as we have initiatives driving conversion, we should start to see improved payer growth and, therefore, improved revenue growth as well. That's the goal. That's what we're trying to achieve through the 4-prong strategy that Tinder is executing on. So hopefully, that addresses your question, James. I think we have time maybe for one more question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Curtis Nagle with Bank of America.
Curtis Nagle:
Terrific. Maybe just one real quick one and then a follow-up. Gary, you just mentioned initial headcount coming in to Hinge. Any other parts of the business where we'll see growth?
And then just one on the ACL (sic) [ ALC ] products, right? Any risk, I guess, of cannibalizing subscription revenue. It sounds like you're going to take some features that you have in premium. It could have been to ACL (sic) [ ALC ] offerings at more affordable price points. And then just what is the assumption in terms of contribution from a la carte in terms of revenue growth in the back half of the year?
Gary Swidler:
So just -- we don't have a lot of time, but I'll try to answer that relatively quickly. On the Hinge headcount, I did mention we are making significant investments there. It's primarily in product development.
We do have a significant investment plan to the company overall on the headcount side, but I do think that will moderate as the year goes on. If you look at headcount costs, they're up a lot in the first quarter year-over-year. But there are some SBC effects and other things that I think will normalize. And so I think that headwind will abate as the year goes on. Hinge is the primary place where we're investing in headcount, and I talked a little bit about the margin consequence there. There is some additional investment at Tinder and in some of the central innovation AI efforts. Those are the primary areas where we're investing in headcount. We're being really judicious elsewhere across the company. So that's kind of one piece of it. On the a la carte cannibalization, that is a factor that we grapple with. There is the potential risk for a la carte to cannibalize subscription. And so we need to test and manage every new feature that we roll out on the a la carte side, which we do to make sure we understand the cannibalization. If it's revenue accretive, we're still comfortable doing that, but you might see knock-on effects on subscribers, but overall better generation on the a la carte side. So that's something that we manage that balance. It's a critical skill that we have, and we're going to continue to do so. We have a lot of a la carte products and adjustments in the pipeline for Tinder in the back half of the year. So I'm expecting a la carte revenue growth in the back half of the year or improvement from where we are now at least. And I do think that the percentage of Tinder's revenue that we generate from a la carte should start to increase as well as we're growing a la carte. I don't think it will be dramatic. It's around 20%, probably tick up to 21%, 22%. So that's what we expect to see in the back half of the year as we roll out more of these a la carte focused initiatives at Tinder. So hopefully that addresses your question. I think we're out of time, but I'll turn the call back over to BK.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Gary, and thanks, everyone, for joining today's call. Gary and I appreciate your questions, and thank you so much for your interest.
We're all really excited about the business that we're building and the opportunities ahead. We look forward to continuing the conversation, and have a great day. Thank you, all.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Match Group Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Tanny Shelburne:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Tanny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. As I reflect on 2023, I am deeply proud of the accomplishments and progress that we made as a team. Just one year ago, we introduced an entirely new operating structure with several new leaders put in place across Tinder, Hinge, MG Asia and E&E, and it's been working. Together, we deepened our focus on execution and innovation, helping lay the foundation for sustained longer-term growth. At the same time, we recaptured financial momentum, ending the year with strong revenue growth and our third consecutive quarter of record AOI. Before we dive into more detail regarding our ambitious plans and goals for this coming year, I wanted to take a moment to recognize Faye Iosotaluno as Tinder's new CEO, which we announced earlier this month. Faye has been an impactful leader at Match Group for several years and most recently as COO of Tinder. Her intimate understanding of the online gaming category, as well as her deep expertise in strategy and business development, among many other skills are just a few of the reasons why I believe Faye is best suited to lead Tinder in its next chapter of growth. Faye is also supported by Tinder's strong management team, which we set in place last year, giving me the utmost confidence in their ability to execute together. The plans for Tinder reflect our shared vision, and I look forward to working with her and the team along this journey. Now, taking a step back at Match Group, we come to work highly motivated every day to foster genuine human connections. But the tools and technologies that people use to connect, match and date today must evolve to meet modern expectations of today's daters. And as Tinder once did a decade ago, it's imperative that we boldly innovate to create engaging, joyful and exciting experiences for users on our apps. There are certain things that are table stakes for us. We need to continue to foster online communities where women and all underrepresented groups of people can show up as their true authentic selves, feel safe and be respected. But this new generation of singles is digital-first and expect platforms like ours to allow daters to showcase their unique personalities in an engaging setting and be shown highly curated matches. In 2024, our road maps are shaped with this in mind. First, we are working to improve existing dating apps, beginning with our two largest brands, Tinder and Hinge. Leveraging AI, Tinder will focus on creating a more inclusive experience beginning with improving the Gen Z and women's experiences, while solving for key user pain points across the dating journey. At Tinder, Faye and her team are relentlessly focused on modernizing the existing experience. For example, take Tinder's effortless swipe feature. In 2024, Tinder plans to build on the swipe right and swipe left mechanism by adding in more discovery gestures to better align with today's behaviors and expectations. Not only will users be able to like as they always have, but now they will be able to swipe up to engage deeper in profiles and swipe down for a revamped new explore experience. Tinder is also working on several features that give women real and relevant experiences every time they come into the app. This will include increased trust and safety, more focused on the right primary photos and improved curation of recommendations. By continuously improving the product, building on what works, while modernizing key features will produce an experience that aligns with what the next generations of daters are expecting. 2023 was a year of execution and increased product velocity for Tinder, which set a strong foundation. In 2024, Tinder is adopting a fast-fail mentality, a strategy that prioritizes rapid experimentation and testing. This approach is all about agility. If a new idea or feature doesn't yield the anticipated results, the team is prepared to quickly pivot, absorbing valuable insights and move forward. We recognize that not every innovation will be a groundbreaking success. However, it's this very willingness to embrace risk and learn from failures that fuels our growth. And when we do strike gold, it not only elevates our business, but it sets a new standard for our users, which we will continually enhance. We look forward to sharing more over time, but I am confident that these changes will meaningfully transform Tinder in 2024 and beyond as it builds on its roots and shapes a product experience that redefines dating yet again. Similarly, Hinge is leveraging AI to further improve its powerful experience by reimagining meaningful connection. Hinge envisions a focused and intentioned experience that places guidance at the heart of a dater's journey. Hinge will aim to truly understand you and what you're looking for in order to introduce you to the right person sooner. This redesigned experience will utilize the vast treasure trove of insights on profiles, rich interactions and great dates that Hinge has collected over several years. Hinge will help users discover matches based on shared interests and highlight compatibility in addition to many other features with the ultimate goal of improving dating outcomes for its users. This work will begin in 2024, and I can't wait to share more as things progress. In 2023, we established a central innovation team that has been making significant impact. In 2024 and beyond, the team will focus on launching disruptive new brands that will grow the category and bring in those who may not have previously tried a traditional dating app. Additionally, we're building internal technology capabilities in coordination with our central innovation teams to help improve our overall effectiveness as a company. While AI brings with it cost efficiencies and a potent optimization tool, we view it as far more than just that. AI has played an important strategic role at Match Group for years from trust and safety efforts to our matching algorithms, and I believe it will play an even larger role moving forward. AI enables us to bring groundbreaking improvements across a dater's journey. We expect it to touch every aspect of our apps by improving profile quality, discoverability and matching and even more importantly, creating an even safer environment for our users to connect in. The bets that we are making are bold, and large-scale changes like this do take time. However, we expect to make tangible progress through 2024 as we roll out AI-driven capabilities and feature enhancements within our existing apps and as new AI-powered standalone apps begin testing in the marketplace. I am confident that early indications of momentum at Tinder, particularly from Gen Z and women, will be evident in the second half of the year as a result of consistent brand narrative, modernizing product and an ecosystem that celebrates human connection and inclusivity. Ultimately, we recognize that our ability to deliver revenue growth and free cash flow is what gives us the freedom to pursue these ambitious road maps. As we push the boundaries of innovation, we will maintain financial discipline. We will grow revenues, maintain or enhance our margins and generate significant free cash flow, which will allow us to return capital to shareholders. 2024 is about both delivering on our short-term commitments and positioning our company for enduring long-term growth. We've always been at the forefront, adapting to technology shifts, and we'll continue to lead this wave of change. At the heart of our endeavors is an unwavering dedication to delivering products and services that delight our customers. And with that, I will turn it over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, BK, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. Our business demonstrated strong financial performance again this quarter. Tinder once again delivered double-digit year-over-year direct revenue growth as did the company as a whole. We achieved record quarterly AOI for the third consecutive quarter and record OI for the second consecutive quarter, further evaluating the steps we've taken to strengthen the business. Match Group's total revenue for Q4 was $866 million, up 10% year-over-year, an acceleration from 9% year-over-year in Q3. For the full year, Match Group delivered total revenue of $3.4 billion, up 6% year-over-year with AOI of $1.3 billion, representing margin of 37%. Excluding the $40 million we received as part of the Google settlement, full year AOI margins would have been up 80 basis points compared to 2022, meeting our goal of flat or better year-over-year AOI margin. Q4 Tinder direct revenue was up 11% year-over-year at $493 million. Tinder RPP was up 21% year-over-year at $16.49 due to the effects of the US price optimizations and weekly packages we rolled out earlier in 2023. We did see a continued pressure on users at Tinder both in the US and globally, during the November and December holiday months, resulting in a mid-single-digit year-over-year decline in new user registrations and reactivations in Q4. Q4 Tinder payers declined 8% year-over-year to 10 million, slightly below our expectations. For the year, Tinder delivered direct revenue of $1.9 billion, up 7% year-over-year with AOI margins in excess of 50%. Our Hinge brand continued to perform very well. Hinge direct revenue growth accelerated to 50% year-over-year, a further 6-point acceleration over Q3. Hinge Q4 payers were up 33% year-over-year to 1.4 million, while RPP of over $28 was up 13% year-over-year in Q4. For the full year, Hinge delivered direct revenue of $396 million, just shy of our $400 million target primarily due to slower top-of-funnel growth in Q4 than we were anticipating. Historically, Hinge has not seen a seasonal slowdown during Q4 like many brands see. This Q4, for the first time, Hinge did see that seasonal slowdown. That said, Hinge has had a very strong start to 2024 in terms of top-of-funnel in every market and among virtually every age and gender cohort. So there's been a clear bounce back. Match Group Q4 AOI was $362 million, up 27% year-over-year, including $40 million that was returned to us as part of the Google litigation settlement for margins of 42%. Excluding the $40 million, AOI would have been up 13% year-over-year, and margins would have been 37%. Operating income was $260 million in Q4 for a margin of 30%, 25% after adjusting out the impact of the Google settlement. Q4 2022 included an impairment of intangibles of approximately $100 million, and OI margin would have improved 3.5 points if not for the impairment in 2022. Overall expenses, including SBC expense, were down 11% year-over-year in Q4, down 5% excluding the Google settlement. Excluding the settlement, cost of revenue, including SBC expense, grew 5% year-over-year in Q4 and represented 29% of total revenue, down 1 point year-over-year. Excluding the settlement, App Store fees increased $17 million year-over-year, 20 basis points as a percent of total revenue in the fourth quarter. Selling and marketing costs, including SBC expense, increased $32 million or 25% year-over-year in Q4, primarily due to increased spend at Tinder. Selling and marketing spend was up 2 points as a percentage of total revenue at 18%. G&A costs, including SBC expense, declined 2% year-over-year in Q4 and 2 points as a percent of revenue to 12% as legal and professional fees declined by $11 million year-over-year. Product development costs, including SBC expense, grew 21% year-over-year in Q4, primarily as a result of higher compensation expense due to increased headcount at Hinge and Tinder and were up 1 point as a percent of total revenue at 11%. For Q1 2024, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $850 million to $860 million, up 8% to 9% year-over-year. We expect FX to be a 2-point year-over-year headwind in Q1. At Tinder, we expect direct revenue to be $480 million to $485 million, up 9% to 10% year-over-year in Q1. Again, we expect FX to be a 2-point year-over-year headwind. We expect RPP and payer year-over-year trends to be broadly in line with what we saw in Q4, with Q1 demonstrating less than half the sequential decline in number of payers than we saw in Q4. Across our other brands, we expect direct revenue of $355 million to $360 million, up 7% to 8% year-over-year. Within our other brands, we expect Hinge to deliver approximately $120 million of direct revenue in Q1, year-over-year growth of approximately 45%. We believe that macroeconomic conditions and consumers' willingness to spend has remained relatively stable since our last earnings call. We have not seen any additional impact on our subscription or ALC revenue. We expect Match Group AOI of $270 million to $275 million in Q1, representing year-over-year growth of 6% and margin of 32% at the midpoint of the ranges. We expect overall Q1 marketing spend to increase by approximately $30 million year-over-year collectively at Tinder and at Hinge compared to the levels these brands were spending at in early 2023 as we seek to reinvigorate user growth at Tinder and continue the stellar user growth at Hinge in both core and European expansion markets during our peak season in the first quarter. That said, we continue to monitor closely for marketing efficacy and can pull back if we don't see the desired results. We entered 2024 with solid revenue momentum and believe we're positioned to deliver total revenue of between $3.565 billion and $3.665 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 6% to 9%. At Tinder, we expect direct revenue of $2.025 billion to $2.075 billion or growth of 6% to 8% year-over-year. We believe this revenue target for Tinder provides the new leadership with sufficient room to focus on ecosystem improvements, product improvements and user growth initiatives to drive sustainable long-term growth. Our outlook assumes modest improvement in Tinder user trends over the course of 2024 but not yet a return to year-over-year user growth. We expect payer growth to improve through the year, achieving positive sequential payer net adds in Q3 and positive year-over-year payer growth by Q4. Across our other brands, we expect direct revenue to be $1.480 billion to $1.530 billion or 6% to 10% year-over-year growth. Within our other brands, at Hinge, we expect direct revenue of $535 million to $545 million, which represents growth of 35% to 38% year-over-year with a continued focus on driving share gains in Hinge's core and European markets. We've assumed FX to be a 1.5-point headwind to full year '24 total revenue growth. We expect 2024 indirect revenue of approximately $60 million, up approximately 8% year-over-year. For 2024, our current anticipation is for AOI margins to be at least 36%. Our margin will largely depend on the various brands' levels of revenue growth and how we calibrate certain investments that are critical to achieve our organic growth plans. There are several key investment areas that are impacting margins that we'd like to call out. The first is at Tinder in both product innovation and marketing. As we reinvent the Tinder experience, we're putting substantial incremental resources into product to improve the experience and cater better to women and Gen Z and in marketing to build a better brand narrative and higher awareness of the new and improved experience. For 2024, we estimate $30 million to $40 million in incremental Tinder expense from increased product innovation and marketing spend in '24 compared to '23. The second is AI-related investments in key brands and the development of new AI-centric products, as we believe AI can help improve our users' experience and bring resistors into the category, as well as potentially expand our TAM. We have a long list of product features being rolled out at Tinder and Hinge, as well as plans to test new and different products that leverage AI throughout 2024. Our current expectations for incremental 2024 AI-related spend of $20 million to $30 million across Match Group. And finally, investment in Hinge. We're confident that Hinge can be a $1 billion top line business, and it has an ambitious plan over the next few years to build off its well-regarded product and the traction it has achieved in all markets entered. While we anticipate significant operating leverage in this business long term, during this hyper-growth phase, we're managing the business to roughly flat AOI margins in 2024 to ensure we're continuing to invest in the product innovation, expansion markets and brand to help us realize Hinge's full potential. In dollar terms, that means that $40 million to $50 million incrementally is going into Hinge's product and marketing in 2024 compared to 2023. All three of these investment areas are elective and can be calibrated as this year proceeds. Because of the cost reduction actions and natural operating leverage of our business, we're able to target margins of at least 36%, while reinvesting roughly $100 million into the three key investment areas, which we expect to not only help us deliver growth this year, but position us for long-term success, specifically to, one, achieve sustained user, payer and revenue growth at Tinder; two, to capitalize on Hinge's full potential; and three, to ensure that we're the ones who introduce the next great innovation in the business of connecting people. Importantly, we expect to begin to see tangible results from this investment this year, not necessarily full payback on a dollar basis. But as BK outlined, we expect to see better product experience at Tinder, including improved satisfaction among women and Gen Z, and Hinge making progress on delivering its revenue goals and expanding market share. We also expect to see AI-driven features in our core brands, as well as in new experiences. We're positioned to make these investments and move our business strategically forward, while holding our already attractive margins approximately flat year-over-year. As some of you may know, Apple recently announced changes to their App Store fee policies in response to the upcoming implementation of the Digital Markets Act in the European Union on March 6. We continue to analyze these changes and our preliminary estimate is an approximately $20 million annualized benefit. However, Apple's new policies are merely a proposal and could change materially over time. We expect any savings that we achieved from Apple's changes will help us meet or exceed our margin objective for the year. Given the March implementation date, we don't anticipate significant Q1 impact. Our $20 million annualized estimate does not include the benefit from use of alternative app stores or payment processors nor have we included any benefits from policy changes in geographies outside the EU, which would be substantial for us. We have said before that the DMA was likely to lead to changes to App Store policies in the EU and likely globally. We have seen the first brick fall in this regard, and we expect more to come. This is in addition to the recent decision by the US Supreme Court in the Epic versus Apple case and Epic's win versus Google in its antitrust case. We have not included any further benefits from App Store changes in our outlook at this time as we want to watch how all of this continues to evolve, though we would point out that the $650 million we paid to App Stores in 2023 provides ample room for reduction. We're pleased by the financial results we achieved in the back half of 2023 in terms of both revenue growth and profitability. We have plans in place to deliver solid 2024 financial performance while enabling marketing and product initiatives to lead to improved user growth and position the business for sustained long-term growth. We continue to believe that Match Group provides a rare combination of revenue growth, stellar profitability, and substantial free cash flow generation. We have plans in place to supplement our shareholders' return with significant return of capital via share repurchases or potentially other means. We believe few, if any, companies in our space offer this combination of attributes to shareholders. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Shweta Khajuria from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay. Thank you for taking my question. BK, anything you can comment on Elliott's stake in the company and your conversations with them thus far? And then my follow-up is for Gary. Gary, could you please provide more color on your level of confidence in Tinder net adds turning positive in third quarter and a positive year-over-year payer growth in the fourth quarter? Thanks a lot.
Bernard Kim:
Great. Thanks, Shweta, for the first question. We've had collaborative dialogue with Elliott over the past few weeks ever since we learned about their stake in the company. We are looking forward to continuing to engage with all of our shareholders, including Elliott.
Gary Swidler:
And then, Shweta, on your questions around Tinder net adds, I think as we said in the letter and in our remarks, we have high confidence that we're going to see sequential improvement in Tinder by Q3 on the net add side and that we will get some modest payer growth year-over-year by Q4. And that's a combination of a few things, most notably the product and marketing initiatives we have that are -- that have been put in place through the course of 2023 and into 2024, which we think will drive the level of growth we need to achieve those goals of sequential net adds in Q3 and then payer growth year-over-year in Q4. And it's a series of things, not just one specific thing that we're relying on or expecting to drive that. It's a series of improvements and initiatives that Tinder has in the plans. And so we think that will culminate in achieving the goals around payer net adds by the middle of this year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Lauren Schenk:
Great. Thanks. Just looking back on 2023, what do you believe caused Tinder user growth to be negative despite the incremental marketing spend? And how will the marketing message evolve in 2024, if at all? And then just one on the 1Q EBITDA guide. It was about $25 million below the Street. Is that just the incremental marketing push you've been speaking about, or are there other drivers there that we should take into account? And how should we think about the cadence of Tinder marketing spend through 2024? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Yeah. So I think it's important to understand what went on in 2023 so that you can understand kind of the trajectory of the business. We put in place a new brand narrative to Tinder, something that we hadn't focused on for a long time. We finally did that in 2023. And when you try to put in place a brand narrative and start to tell that story, it takes time to build. And so it doesn't translate into user growth immediately. And in fact, what we saw in '23 was pretty good progress on the user growth side in the first half of the year as a result in part of the marketing initiatives. I think we hadn't been in the market very effectively on the market side in a while. And so we did see some really good user growth improvement from, let's call it, February of last year until the middle of the year. And then in the second half of the year, the trends kind of reverted to where they had been, down kind of mid single-digits on the user side year-over-year. And while we saw that step back, we did continue to see movement in some key metrics that we focus on for the brand campaign, brand consideration and improvement in consideration, particularly younger women. And so we were satisfied that the brand campaign was doing what we expected it to do over the course of 2023. The campaign has been very resident with the target demographic, and it's been very well awarded by some of the ad publications. And so we're continuing to invest in that marketing campaign. We're continuing to do it in the key global markets. And we're trying to have an always-on philosophy so there's not gaps in the marketing. And that's what we've budgeted for, for this year. I would just point out though that marketing can only do so much. Tinder, like many of our brands, is a product-driven company. And so while marketing can help on the user growth side, the user growth really needs to be driven by product and product innovation. And marketing needs to be aligned with product to drive people back to the app or to reconsider the app or consider it for the first time once product has really innovated and improved. So that is part of the plan for 2024. We are spending pretty heavily in Q1 on the marketing side, as you pointed out, because we do want to drive users back to the app after the refresh. And so that is part of the plan for the first quarter. I do think that people maybe didn't quite understand the magnitude of what we are planning to spend in the first quarter on Tinder marketing. I do think that accounts for maybe the gap in expectations versus what sell-side analysts had for the quarter. And so that -- and that plus a little bit of user softness that we saw in Q4, which leads to revenue softness and therefore, AOI softness as well are probably the two factors. We are planning to continue to spend heavily in the first quarter. I would say after that, the marketing cadence is probably pretty evenly spread throughout the rest of the year. But as we say, we're nimble on the marketing side. And to the extent we don't see the expected user growth trends or effectiveness of the marketing campaign, we can adjust and pull back. And so we're pushing hard in the first quarter at Tinder and frankly, at Hinge as well. And then we'll sort of recalibrate and see. But right now, I'd say it's spread pretty evenly the rest of the way.
Lauren Schenk:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Chris Kuntarich with UBS. Please go ahead.
Chris Kuntarich:
Great. Thanks for taking the question. Can you just talk a little bit more about what those early learnings have been around the Tinder product refresh and how that is really tying into the marketing spend for Tinder that you're talking about this year? Thanks.
Bernard Kim :
I'll take that one. Great question, Chris. The refresh in December was our first step in the product modernization that we're undergoing as a team. It's been less than two months since the refresh went live, and we're already seeing encouraging signs. For example, over 80% of our daily users are currently using dark mode. And as for prompts and quizzes, we're excited about the early adoption rates. Quizzes are already seeing a 15% adoption rate, and prompts are not that far behind. This is a strong indicator of user engagement, especially considering how recently these features were introduced. I'd like to add that it's important for us to remember that these features are optional. So not all users will adopt them, but their presence offers more ways for users to engage. Our approach last fall testing numerous features independently before combining them into a broader refresh has created tremendous learning across Tinder. These tests have taught us quickly to identify what works and what doesn't work, informing our fail-fast strategy for 2024. And as Gary mentioned, we are leaning in on our marketing strategy. However, it's crucial to leverage marketing to spotlight new product features. Therefore, we might adjust our spend levels to align with the rollout of these new features throughout the year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Justin Patterson:
Great. Thank you very much, and good morning. Could you elaborate a little bit more about the Hinge slowdown that occurred during December and what drove the reacceleration? I know you talked about that we haven't really seen seasonality in Hinge before. So I'm curious how that seasonality compares to what you've seen towards some of your more mature apps in there? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me take that, Justin. So we do see seasonality in most of our apps, especially the larger ones, in the period in kind of November and December. That's typical. We see it at Tinder. We see it at other brands, because users in many parts of the world tend to focus on the holiday season, and they pull back from their dating activities in that period. And then what we tend to see is right after Christmas through Valentine's Day, we actually see a very strong period. That's our peak season from right after Christmas to Valentine's Day when people start looking for love. And so that's kind of the cadence that we typically see in the business. We haven't seen that historically at Hinge, but I think now that the business has achieved some reasonable level of scale in some of the core markets like the US, we are starting to see that seasonality like we do at Tinder and other brands. And so I'm expecting that we'll see that going forward. But 2023 was the first time that we've seen that. The good news is that, that is in the rearview mirror for us at this point. Hinge got off to a very strong start in January, kind of picked off -- picked up where it had left off before the holiday period. We've seen really good strength in all the geographies where it operates across all gender and age cohorts. And so we're very pleased with what's happened thus far in January. And that's very encouraging because when a brand gets off to a strong start in the peak season, it tends to bode well for its performance for the rest of the year. And so we're happy to see that, and we're looking forward to Hinge performing well in 2024.
Operator:
The next question comes from Zach Morrissey with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Zach Morrissey:
Great. Thank you. I appreciate the color on the Tinder's kind of product road map for this year that provided in the letter. And I wanted to, kind of, focus more on this a la carte opportunity that you stated. So can you share any kind of preliminary details on the kind of new a la carte offering products that you have planned for the second half of this year? I mean how that may differ versus kind of what is currently offered in the app. And then do you see this more as a payer penetration or monetization driver for this year? Thanks.
Bernard Kim:
Hey, Zach, thanks for the question. We're going to hold back on diving into the specifics of our upcoming ALC offerings for competitive reasons. But what I can share, historically, our two main ALC features, Super Like and Boost, have been helping users gain more visibility and stand out. But we actually have not launched any new ALC features for a long time. We're now exploring additional ALC features that can bring even more value to our users. Our team will vigorously test new offerings to see what resonates most with our daters. And in this effort, we mobilize our portfolio of brands to partner and collaborate with Tinder on these tests. This approach is similar to how swipe up actually tested weekly subs to tune the right offering before we introduced them on Tinder and Hinge. This team effort will be instrumental in trialing some of these potential new features before we roll them out on Tinder. Expect to see a new ALC offering from us in the second half of this year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Good morning and thank you for taking my question. I guess with the new leadership in place, what, I guess, any difference should we expect in Tinder strategy? How should we think about things like product output velocity, marketing strategy? For instance, I think you guys also mentioned sort of the renewed focus on ecosystem improvements. And BK, now that you have a permanent successor in place at Tinder, how do you envision your role sort of evolving? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Ben, for the question. Now over the last 18 months, Faye has been a real partner to me. She's so passionate about Tinder and knows the business and product inside out. We've stabilized and returned Tinder to revenue growth. And I believe that Faye is only going to accelerate that momentum. The team is fully aligned and clear on their goals. Faye has been instrumental in shaping our road map. And now as CEO, she is pushing forward with modernizing the product, boosting development speed and bringing vital leadership. And her focus will be particularly in enhancing women's experience and the overall ecosystem health at Tinder. She will share more of our plan later this year, but the core focus is clear
Operator:
The next question comes from Mark Kelley with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Mark Kelley:
Great. Thanks very much. I just have one, probably for BK. A lot of AI commentary in the note and in your prepared remarks. I guess, my question is, is the goal to have like a unified AI infrastructure on the back end that will be utilized across the portfolio, or do you think there are unique needs across each individual brand where it makes sense to maybe modify those AI capabilities? And I guess second to that, I know you gave us guidance for the full year in terms of margins, but any cost implications that we should be aware of? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Mark. I was actually hoping that someone ask me about AI. And I want to just share some of my thoughts around AI. I mean, I believe that AI is existential to the future of Match Group and our business. AI will help us create improved user experiences and will truly make our products better. And that puts us in a different category from other companies that are just looking at optimizing through AI and slight improvements. This technology is revolutionary for dating, and we're bringing it to life across our entire portfolio. I envision AI to be felt through the entire experience, influencing everything from profile creation to matching and connecting for dates, literally everything. Our data as a team and deep understanding of dating and singles is a rich resource for informing our AI dating models internally. Our two biggest brands, Tinder and Hinge, have their own AI strategies tailored to its unique needs and listening to daters and what they want. Now, we do have this central innovation team working across the entire portfolio on moonshot ideas and incubating new products. And our talented team at Hyperconnect is playing a crucial role in supporting all of these initiatives across the company. I'm really excited about this revolution going across the entire team. Gary mentioned in his comments that we are investing $20 million to $30 million in AI innovation. And I absolutely believe it's the right thing for us to do to drive enduring strength, better experiences and future growth for our business.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Ygal Arounian:
Hey, good morning, guys. Just one follow-up on the AI thought. And obviously, lots of talk around this here. And just trying to understand how much AI contribution is kind of embedded into the expectations for 2024, when you see it having a more meaningful impact. And maybe at least for this year, do you see it as more of a driver for payers or for RPP, or does it -- can it contribute to both? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Why don't I jump in and take that one? So as BK said, we've got a lot of exciting AI initiatives planned for Tinder, for Hinge and for new products as well that we're going to roll over the course of 2024. So we do have very high expectations for delivery of all these products and features that we think they will enhance the user experience. And so I think it's logical to think that they would benefit RPP, because it will be a better experience, people should see more value in the product and be willing to pay more. But I would tell you that at this point, given that it's still very early in the evolution of these various products and features, we haven't included any notable revenue in our 2024 outlook from the AI efforts. As BK mentioned, we've put in all of the costs, which we've estimated at $20 million to $30 million, so we can go hire people, do the work to build out these different products and features and roll them out over the course of the year. But we are waiting on the revenue side. Now you might view that as a conservative assumption, and it very well could be. But I think at this point in time, it's the right thing to do. And we'll obviously continue to update what we're seeing from the AI initiatives as the year progresses.
Operator:
The next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Thanks. Anything you would call out or highlight on the Tinder product road map that you think could be particularly impactful in driving that Tinder payer turnaround in second half? And Gary, just to clarify, the $20 million App Store benefit, is that included in the guide, or is that something that would be upside? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
I'll take the first part of that question, Cory. We feel really good about the progress that we've made at Tinder over the past few months, and the results have aligned really well with our expectations. We've demonstrated Tinder's capability to deliver. They've achieved double-digit revenue growth for the last two quarters consecutively. And I'm really excited about the continued strong execution velocity and the product and marketing road maps for 2024. Now we acknowledge that Q4 was a large sequential payer decline, but we are optimistic about the future as we see these declines moderating. Looking ahead, we're confident that in Q3, Tinder payers will turn positive on a sequential basis. This confidence stems from marketing coupled with several product initiatives that are underway. Our key strategies include enhancing the visibility and value of our paid packages and dynamically showing the right offer to the right user at the right time. Now additionally, our monetization team is working on more market-specific conversion strategies and experimenting with unbundling certain premium features that currently sit behind a paywall.
Gary Swidler:
And then on the DMA question, Cory, we've got this margin floor in our financial outlook. And so the $15 million, that would probably accrue in 2024, because we're saying, it's $20 million annualized. So if you say, it's three-quarters, let's call it, $15 million. That obviously helps us achieve our margin target or even gives us an ability to exceed the margin target as the year goes on. And so it's helpful in that regard to kind of push us maybe at the top end or higher than kind of what people might be expecting. And so it's definitely a positive from our perspective. Obviously, we've got a lot of investment going on, and so we'll have to think about whether any of that should be reinvested. But ultimately, I do think it's a $15 million positive for the year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Youssef Squali with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
Youssef Squali:
Thank you. Hi, guys. So the company has been talking about steps to reduce duplicative functions and migrate the Evergreen & Emerging Brands onto one technology platform to consolidate the brands onto a single stack. Where are you in that process? What kind of cost savings or margin impact are you baking in, in 2024? And ultimately, how much do you anticipate to be deriving from that over time? Thanks a lot.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. We haven't spent a lot of addressing that. So appreciate the question. What's been happening, and this is related to our E&E business, both the Emerging businesses and the Evergreen businesses, where we're trying to be more efficient. What we've started to do is centralize teams and reduce redundancies in various aspects of the E&E business. So if you look at the marketing function, you look at the customer care function, other aspects of their operations, we're reducing duplication. And that's leading to some savings this year and on an ongoing basis. So that's kind of the first piece of what's going on there. But the second and more important piece is that we've got a number of brands within that mini portfolio inside the company. We're consolidating the technology platforms onto a single technology platform. We did a couple of the smaller bands last year. We're going to do a couple of more brands this year, and then we're going to do some of the bigger brands next year. So it's a multiyear process. And the reason for that is, it has customer implications. And so you have to be cautious. It's a complex and risky undertaking. And we want to do it right and not have any unexpected consequences. And so we're working kind of very deliberately and very carefully to make all of that happen. When those consolidations take place, we do see significant cost savings from them. And so that's where we really started to get the financial benefit. So as I mentioned, we got a little bit as a result of what we did last year. We've got a little bit more as well we will do this year. And then the real benefits will accrue fully by 2026, where we'll see all the benefits of having one single platform, and we'll have reduced all of the various redundancies. I would estimate that there's probably a 10-point margin improvement in the E&E business once all of those cost savings are fully included. So that's a substantial amount of money on a business that is somewhere between $600 million and $700 million of revenue. And so that enables us to reinvest the savings into growth businesses around the company, whether that's into Tinder, whether that's at the Hinge or wherever we want to put it. That's the plan once those savings are achieved. So this is a pretty significant undertaking for the company. It gives us the ability to reinvest the dollars that are coming out as a result of the platform consolidations, and we're working very hard and carefully to make all of that happen.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ross Sandler with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Great. Thanks. Gary, can we go back to the App Store fees topic in the DMA? So it sounds like based on public statements anyway, that Spotify and Fortnite have very little interest in paying Apple anything for apps that are side loaded where there's direct billing in that app at least in Europe. So would you guys fall into that camp? And is that $20 million that you called out just from the fee changes that have been announced assuming that you actually have to pay them for these changes? And then I guess the second question is, if Google, kind of, matches a similar fee structure and then this, kind of, becomes the global standard, what would that total number look like in some future state versus the $20 million you called out? Thanks a lot.
Gary Swidler:
Yeah. So it's one of the reasons why in answering Cory's question, is it included or not, there's still a lot of uncertainty around this. I think if you just do the straight calculation as we understand the policy changes that Apple put in place, you get to that $20 million number for a full year. But I think there's still a lot of questions. As you point out, Spotify has raised questions and concerns. Microsoft has raised them. Others have raised them, and so you have to decide whether to opt into this or not. We have not yet done so. And so we're still considering what this all means, which is why just kind of putting it into the guidance or not is not exactly the way this all works. And so we're still looking at it, making sure we understand it. And frankly, if you understand the dynamics of all this, this is what Apple has proposed complies with the Digital Markets Act in Europe. The European Commission actually has to accept that this proposal complies and that and of itself is far from assured. And so I think that will continue to play itself out over the next weeks or months as we get to that March 6th deadline. So we'll see how this all plays out. From our perspective, the good news is that we expected the DMA to lead the changes on the App Store side, and we started to see that. And it's hard for us to fathom that it will end there because even if the changes that Apple has proposed are what goes into place in the EU, if you're a consumer in the US or you're a consumer in the UK right next door to the EU, you start to wonder, well, why are customers in the EU getting benefit, and we're not getting the same benefits. And so if you're the government in those jurisdictions, you'd say, well, our citizens deserve the same benefits as what we're seeing in the European Union. And so that's why in my remarks, I said we think it's the first brick. I think there's more to come. And just so you have an order of magnitude in your mind, we probably get five or six times the savings if the Apple changes as currently proposed were to be implemented in the rest of the world because while we have a relatively small percentage of our revenue in the European Union that comes from iOS, we've got a lot in the UK, we've got a lot in North America. And so there's really significant benefits in those jurisdictions if these policy changes are made. So that's where the significant benefits to us really would be, either further changes to the policies or expansions of the geographies. And I think both of those things are very, very possible. The impact of further change on Google is not nearly as dramatic as the Apple side. I think that's where we could see really meaningful steps forward. And we're excited to see kind of where this goes because we've been waiting for this for a long time, and this is the first tangible movement that we've seen from the regulators. And as I mentioned in my remarks, that's on top of some of the other things that have happened from a court perspective, which look like they're going to open up the ability to use other app stores, which again is very significant for us or other processors for payments as well, which again is very significant for us. So, there's a lot of moving pieces to this. What we can quantify today is the $20 million based on the changes that have been made, but I think you have to think a little bit more broadly about what's more likely to happen here over the next little while.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brad Erickson with RBC. Please go ahead.
Brad Erickson:
Yes. Thanks for squeezing me on. One of the questions we've been getting from investors a lot lately is just, given the impact you've seen on these pricing optimizations on Tinder, just curious if you'd ever consider any sort of like alternative path there on pricing in 2024, maybe rolling things back, et cetera, as a way to get payers back on earlier? And then maybe just to clarify as well, you talked about the RPP growth to Tinder, I think, looking out to the second half of the year. And it sounds like maybe AI could be having something to do with that. But then yes, you were pretty clear that like AI is not really in the forecast. Maybe if you could just reconcile that a bit. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Yes. Look, I think that we look at all of these different levers all the time. But as we've talked about many times, we're focused on increasing revenue, not specifically increasing revenue per payer or payers just for the sake of moving either of those KPIs. And so, we remain focused with our north star on revenue. But as we prioritize things, we have the ability to focus a little bit more on payers and potentially make some more impact there, because there's always choices to be made on the product road map. So, we're mindful of the fact that everyone is very focused on what's going to happen with payers. We have enough in the road map to achieve the payer pivot in the third quarter as we described earlier and to get to payer growth in the fourth quarter. So naturally, you would expect that over the course of the year, as the benefits of all the pricing optimizations and with subscribers start to subside, we'll get to a better balance by the fourth quarter in terms of payer growth and RPP growth to equate to the revenue growth that we're expecting in the fourth quarter. So, we will start to see this kind of normalize and become more balanced over the course of the year as things wash through. We're not going to go to sort of abnormal efforts to drive payers because I don't think that's healthy for the business. But we are obviously cognizant of the various concerns around this. And I do think you will naturally see it become much more balanced as the year goes on.
Gary Swidler:
All right. I want to thank everybody for joining us this morning. I think we're right at time. We appreciate it, as always, and we look forward to seeing everyone again next quarter. Thank you so much.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Tanny Shelburne:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Tanny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. I come to work every day energized because I get to work at a company dedicated to helping people find love, happiness, and human connections. That inspiration not only inspires me, but also our teams, and has enabled another strong quarter of strong operating and financial results from Match Group in Q3, highlighted by a second consecutive quarter of record total revenue and AOI. Our businesses have demonstrated that setting clear goals and objectives can not only build momentum in the current year, but also set up our company for a bright future. Tinder is a great example of this. Tinder's business model was built largely on virality, but it's not lost on me how important it is to continue to drive forward with innovative marketing and product initiatives, while also rebuilding the revenue momentum that Tinder has enjoyed for so long, not just in 2023, but for years to come. Looking at 2023 thus far, I deeply believe we made the right decision in prioritizing revenue growth initiatives at Tinder with U.S. price optimizations and weekly subscription packages. While we recognize that these actions have created short-term volatility in Tinder's Payer count, we're essentially resetting Tinder's Payer base at a significantly higher rate, which has enabled double-digit revenue growth one quarter ahead of our initial expectations, and outcome that we're very pleased with. The other component of Tinder's ongoing success is centered on product and marketing initiatives that reignite user growth and improve its brand narrative. We saw great strength through June in terms of total signups and reactivations as a result of the It Starts with a Swipe campaign. However, in late summer, Tinder pulled back its spend on the campaign, and concentrated more heavily into female-focused messaging. Although overall user trends remain slightly down as a result of the pullback, Tinder's younger female signups did not see the same pullback, proving that we continue to make good progress with this critical demographic. Tinder also began marketing again on college campuses for the first time in three years, and launched a new feature, called Matchmaker, in mid October, both of which feature well-known rappers as part of their campaigns. We are so excited to leverage the power of music into our work because we know how core it is to the lives of Gen Z users. Tinder SELECT, our first ever high-end tier, also rolled out in September, and has seen early interest, but the nature of the business is such that we need to continue to iterate and make sure that it's an exceptional experience that deeply resonates for users and provides the value that they are looking for. Importantly, Tinder's learnings from 2023 are informing its 2024 roadmap, which we will continue to build off of what we've accomplished throughout this year. For example, we've learned from launching weekly subscriptions, that the younger generations Tinder primarily serves have more of an affinity to lower price and shorter-term duration products that we had initially anticipated. Therefore, we're exploring opportunities to increase our monetization by revisiting our à la carte portfolio. The reality is roughly 85% of our à la carte payers are subscribers, representing a very large untapped potential for future monetization and payer penetration. Also, we believe that Tinder has a long runway ahead in international markets where it can really push penetration higher. These represent real opportunities for Tinder, and give me a great deal of confidence in Tinder's ability to achieve future growth expectations. Looking across the entire Match Group portfolio, I continue to be amazed by the level of team collaboration, work output, and innovation taking place on behalf of daters across the globe. Hinge continues to prove that when you have a great product and a brand that deeply resonates, good things happen. Through Q3, Hinge drove usage levels to an all-time high, becoming the number one most downloaded dating app in several important markets like the U.K. and Australia, and has firmly solidified itself as a top three dating app in the U.S. Not only that, but Hinge continues to make massive inroads in its European expansion markets. All of this enabled another quarter of strong double-digit revenue growth. With Hinge well on its way to delivering its $400 million annual revenue target in 2023, we see an even brighter future ahead led by ongoing growth initiatives and more monetization capabilities. At Match Group Asia, Azar continues to post double-digit revenue growth rates, driven by its new AI-enabled matching algorithm, a demonstration of Hyperconnect's best-in-class talent coming to life to drive user growth and financial strength. At Pairs, we launched our first ever TV campaign, which marks an extremely important step in breaking down stigma and unlocking improved user trends. And at E&E, we rolled out Archer, our first dating app for gay, bisexual, and queer men, nationwide in late September, again one full quarter ahead of initial plans. And the team is even accelerating its international plans given such strong user receptivity thus far as it zeroes in on key competitors. Archer is another example of how our teams take learnings and effectively apply them to drive improved outcomes for its users and our portfolio. We remain deeply committed to our innovation and the use of AI to provide users the best possible dating experience. And I look forward to sharing more on our efforts in our Q4 call as we think about how innovation can really improve our users' experience and expand the category. We know there is much more work to be done to finish 2023 from a position of strength and set our company up to deliver ongoing shareholder value over time. With that, I'll turn it over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, BK, and hello everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. The momentum in our financial performance strengthened again this quarter, and we hit our financial target of 10% Tinder year-over-year direct revenue growth one quarter earlier than we'd been expecting. As BK mentioned, we achieved record quarterly total revenue as well as record AOI NOI at Match Group in Q3, a clear demonstration of the financial power of the business. We're pleased by the revenue momentum at Tinder, and also by the exceptional user and revenue momentum at Hinge. Our judicious focus on costs across the company is enabling us to invest in our growth businesses and deliver record profits. Match Group's total revenue for Q3 was $882 million, up 9% year-over-year, compared to up 4% year-over-year in Q2. FX was a notable headwind once again and $10 million more severe than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call. Tinder outperformed our expectations in the quarter as the revenue momentum we saw from price optimizations in the U.S. and weekly subscriptions continued to deliver. Tinder direct revenue was up 11% year over year at $509 million in Q3. Tinder RPP was 18% year over year at $16.28 due to the U.S. price optimizations and weekly packages. In the U.S., Tinder RPP was up 42% year over year. Tinder's U.S. price increases and the rollout of weekly subscriptions in the U.S. and a handful of key international markets have played an important role in accelerating revenue growth as the year has gone on. These optimizations have increased RPP dramatically and have clearly been revenue-enhancing at Tinder. However, they have also had impact Tinder's payer count this year. Q3, Tinder payers declined 6% year over year to 10.4 million, largely due to the U.S. price increases. Tinder payers were down by 56,000 sequentially in Q3 as weekly subscribers in the U.S. rolled off, partially offset by the addition of weekly subscribers in several key international markets. The sequential impact on Q3 payers from U.S. pricing optimizations was modest and far less than in Q2 as a majority of U.S. members had already been subject to the higher pricing. Tinder top-of-funnel trends, which includes new registrations and reactivations of lapsed users weakened slightly in Q3. Tinder pulled back on some It Starts with A Swipe brand marketing spend in late July and early August, electing to concentrate efforts on several key marketing initiatives in the back-to-college season in late August and September, which affected top-of-funnel trends in Q3. In the U.S., new users were down 6% year over year in September compared to June when they were down 2% year over year. That said, over that same period new users consisting of women 18 to 29 years old did not see the same step back, demonstrating the impact of Tinder's sharper focus on younger women. Our Hinge brand continues to perform exceptionally well. Hinge grew direct revenue 44% year over year, a 9 point acceleration over Q2. Hinge experienced strong user growth in both core English-speaking markets and its European expansion markets, leading to 37% year over year download growth in Q3. Hinge Q3 payers were 33% year over year at over 1.3 million while RPP of nearly $27 was up over 8% year over year again in Q3. Our Match Group Asia business saw a direct revenue decline 5% year over year to $77 million in Q3, but it was up 2% FX neutral. At Hyperconnect, Azar grew direct revenue 20% year over year as implementation of a new AI driven matching algorithm continued to drive meaningful increases in engagement and conversion. While Azar has been a real bright spot, Hakuna payers saw year over year direct revenue declines in Q3. The Japanese market continues to experience sub-par user growth although we have seen some recent improvement as a result of the new T.V. ad campaigns. At our Evergreen and emerging brands, direct revenue declines moderated to 3% year over year, which was a notable improvement compared to Q2 which itself was better than Q1. Indirect revenue was $15 million in Q3. Up 3% year over year driven by an increase in ad impressions. Q3 adjusted operating income or AOI was $333 million after just surpassing $300 million for the first time ever last quarter. It was up 17% year over year, representing a margin of 38%. Up 3 points year over year. Operating income was up 16% year over year to $244 million in Q3 for a margin of 28%. Up 2 points year over year. Overall expenses including SBC expense were up 7% year over year in Q3, but down 2 points as a percent of total revenue. Cost of revenue including SBC expense grew 3% year over year and represented 29% of total revenue. Down 2 points year over year as live streaming cost declined $6 million year over year. App store fees increased $19 million year over year, half a point as a percentage of total revenue. The quarter included a final $3 million escrow payment to Google in July. Selling and marketing cost including SBC expense increased $24 million or 18% year over year. Primarily due to increased spend at Tinder and at Hinge as it continue to expand internationally, offset by lower spending at multiple other brands. Selling and marketing spend was up 1 point as a percent of total revenue at 17%. G&A costs, including SBC expense, declined 6% year-over-year, and dropped 2 points as a percentage of total revenue to 12% as legal and professional fees declined by $9 million year-over-year. Product development costs, including SBC expense, grew 7% year-over-year, primarily as a result of higher compensation expense due to increased head count at Hinge, and were flat as a percentage of total revenue at 11%. Depreciation was up 62% year-over-year, or $7 million to $17 million, primarily due to an increase in internally developed software placed in service. Interest expense increased $4 million, or 10% year-over-year in Q3, to $40 million. Primarily due to higher interest costs due to the floating rate structure of our term loan. While interest income increased $7 million, given higher rates we're earning on our cash balances. Our gross leverage was 3.3 times trailing AOI, and net leverage was 2.7 times at the end of Q3, below our target of less than three times. We ended the quarter with $713 million of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments on hand. During the early part of the quarter, we repurchased $6.7 million of our common shares at an average price of approximately $45 per share, totaling approximately $300 million. Through September 30, 2023, we have reduced outstanding shares by 2.8% from our beginning of the year share count. Net of shares issued under employee equity programs. We now have $667 million remaining on our $1 billion share buyback program, providing ample ability to continue to buy back shares. As we discussed in the letter, the company has minimal capital expenditures and significant free cash flow generation. We disclosed in May that we intend to return at least 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders via buyback or other means. We intend to use the remainder of our free cash flow, first to invest in our businesses, which continue to be the best way to drive shareholder value. As we have shown with newly incubated apps like Chispa, BLK, and now Archer, as well as with various new product initiatives, we're confident we're funding the right new bets through our P&L. But M&A has always been a meaningful component of our strategy as well. And we intend to maintain financial flexibility to pursue M&A as a second use of free cash flow. I want to emphasize though that the bar for M&A is high. And we expect acquisitions will be in our category or near adjacent and consistent with our stated mission or of tech capabilities that we need to help accelerate delivery of our mission. If we do not find compelling acquisition opportunities, we expect to return the remaining excess capital to shareholders as well. Turning to our financial outlook for Q4 '23, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $855 million to $865 million up 9% to 10% year-over-year. This range reflects $27 million more of FX headwinds than we had anticipated at the time of our last earnings call, as well as risk that our brands will not generate a portion of the approximately $7 million quarterly revenue that we derive from Israel, given the ongoing events there. It also reflects approximately $3 million less than we previously expected because of trends we are seeing in our ad sales business. Where we've seen a number of advertisers delay or pull scheduled Q4 campaigns. Also note that Q4 tends to be a weaker quarter sequentially than Q3, as data start to focus on the holiday season in November and December. We expect FX to be less than a 1 point year-over-year headwind in Q4. That said, we continue to expect significant FX volatility as we've seen over the past three months. At Tinder, we expect direct revenue to be up approximately 11% year-over-year in Q4, a second consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year direct revenue growth, and again reflecting seasonal trends. We expect FX to be less than a 1 point year-over-year headwind. Our outlook attempts to factor in the likely impacts of a weakening consumer, as well as the resumption of U.S. student loan repayments on Tinder's more discretionary a la carte revenue. We expect Tinder RPP to increase year-over-year in Q4 at slightly greater levels than in Q3, and Tinder payers to decline slightly more year-over-year than in Q3. The additional year-over-year payer decline reflects the late summer weakness in Tinder's new user and reactivation trends. In Q4, we expect Tinder's sequential payer count to be negatively impacted as weekly package subscribers continue to fall out of the payer count, but without the offsetting benefit of the initial rollouts of weekly packages in large markets that we had in Q2 and Q3. We estimate this to be more than a 200,000 negative sequential impact to payers. We expect Hinge to deliver meaningfully accelerating year-over-year direct revenue growth again in Q4, driven by continued strong performance in English speaking markets, continued European expansion, and various monetization initiatives. We remain confident that Hinge's momentum will lead it to deliver approximately $400 million of direct revenue in 2023. We expect MG Asia direct revenue to be down mid-single-digits year-over-year in Q4. We expect similar year-over-year direct revenue growth rates for Hyperconnect payers in Q4 as in Q3. We expect our evergreen and emerging brands direct revenue to decline mid-single-digits year-over-year in Q4, with continued strong growth at the emerging brands. We expect indirect revenue to be down modestly year-over-year in Q4, given the weakening ad demand with advertisers pulling or delaying several campaigns. We expect AOI of $305 million to $310 million in Q4 representing year-over-year growth of 7% to 9% and margin of 36% at the mid points of the ranges. We expect overall marketing spend to increase modestly year-over-year in Q4, with a meaningful increase at Tinder and some of our newer growth apps, including Archer and The League. For full-year 2023, Match Group is on pace to achieve approximately 5% top-line growth and deliver slightly better AOI margins than we did in 2022, consistent with our recent expectations. Our Q4 and full-year 2023 results do not include the impact of the settlement with Google that was reached yesterday. We expect to enter 2024 with momentum to deliver 10% plus year-over-year total revenue growth early in the year. The most critical component to maintaining that level of revenue growth for the full-year will be the ability of Tinder's ongoing marketing and product initiatives to deliver as the impacts of the '23 optimizations anniversary. At the moment, we feel confident in the team's execution and believe the most likely outcome is for full-year, '24 year-over-year total revenue growth in the high single-digits. But we want to allow Tinder's execution momentum to build for another quarter before pinpointing a precise '24 year-over-year total revenue growth expectation. We also want to continue to monitor the volatile macro environment to assess that impact on our outlook. These factors could drive our revenue growth outlook positively or negatively. We've assumed FX to be a two point headwind for full-year '24 total revenue growth, but that also could change materially given current macro conditions. We believe we can deliver AOI margins at least at the same level as we expect to deliver in '23. There are a few anticipated margin headwinds that are out of our control, including App Store fees and compliance costs related to the EU's Digital Services Act. There is also some uncertainty around digital services taxes in certain markets, such as Canada, which would affect AOI. We have attempted to incorporate the impact of the Google settlement into our '24 margin outlook. We are currently deep in our planning process for '24. We're contemplating investments in innovation and particularly in AI to drive new sources of monetization, resolve user pain points to increase our product's value, and potentially build new apps that can deepen our TAM penetration. We're also carefully analyzing the appropriate level of marketing spend to drive user growth at Tinder, Hinge, and some of our newer apps. We expect spend reductions in other areas to help offset the impact of increased spend in these areas. We also expect to limit hiring to positions that are vital to driving growth. Our current expectation is for Tinder to deliver direct revenue growth in a high single-digit range next year, through a combination of RPP growth and improving year-over-year payer growth throughout the year. We expect the non-Tinder brands to collectively deliver direct revenue growth in a high single-digit range in '24. At Hinge, we expect similar year-over-year direct revenue growth as in '23, in excess of 35% and a continued focus on driving share gains in its core and European markets. We're pleased by the momentum we've seen in the business over the past two quarters. It is the result of a lot of hard work from many people across the portfolio. We're confident that this momentum will carry into 2024. Importantly, our setup entering next year is much better than it was for 2023. While we're happy with the progress, there is still a lot to do, especially at Tinder. We're delivering stronger user trends and sustained payer and revenue growth is paramount, and in product innovation across the portfolio, particularly in harnessing AI capabilities to increase adoption of our products and drive higher monetization. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from John Blackledge of TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great, thanks. Gary, maybe could you discuss further the puts and takes of your initial view on the '24 revenue growth and margin assumptions? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure, John. Let me give it a shot at unpacking some of that for you in a little detail. I think on the revenue side, the biggest swing factor for 2024 performance is really, of course, related to Tinder; how well the execution continues to be, how much delivery of growth Tinder delivers in 2024. And as we've talked about many times, we feel really good about how the team is executing, the product velocity, the marketing initiatives. And so, we've been planning for this for a while, and we are aware that Tinder needs to deliver in 2024 on both top of funnel and on improving payer conversion and overall payers and revenue. And so that is probably the biggest swing factor as we look at the 2024 revenue guidance. The second factor that I would point to, and we called it out, is the macro environment. We're particularly monitoring Tinder on that front because there's a lot of younger users there with less disposable income. There's a lot of à la carte revenue at Tinder, which tends to be a more discretionary purchase. And so, we're watching to see what happens in the economies globally as we turn the corner in '24. We know the consumer has held on well to this point, but we're increasingly nervous about what's to come in the months ahead. And we're factoring that into our thoughts on outlook for '24 revenue as well. And then you've got the events in the Middle East, the horrific events going on in the Middle East that we're obviously monitoring very closely as well. We quantified the impact of that on our fourth quarter, but obviously much more challenging to get visibility on what's going to happen across the Middle East and what the impact is going to be on our business specifically, which obviously a more minor concern but nonetheless something we're trying to factor in as we think about '24. And then last but sort of relatedly to the economy and what's going on in the Middle East as well is what happens with FX rates. We use the forward curve to predict the FX impact for the coming year. And we've done so again this year. But as we've seen consistently and repeatedly, the forward curve tends to be not always the best predictor of actually what's to come, and there's been a lot of volatility in FX rates. And I think it's fair to assume that that volatility is going to continue as we go forward. And so that's another swing factor on our 2024 revenue growth outlook. I think those are the biggest ones. Obviously, there are others, but I would call those out. On the margin side which you asked about, in addition to the contribution from Tinder, I mentioned that we're analyzing the incremental marketing spend at Hinge, at some of our newer growth businesses like Archer and The League, and also at Tinder. I think we will have some guardrails on the increased marketing spend at Tinder. I don't see that being more than a point or two of revenue next year, incrementally, but it's something that we're analyzing as we go through our planning process, and we'll have more of an update as we get into the early part of next year. But we do recognize that we need to continue to build the brand narrative at Tinder, and to supplement the viral growth with marketing as BK talked about in his remarks. And I think that we can offset the incremental marketing spend at Tinder, should we choose to do that, with reductions elsewhere across the portfolio, which is something that we've been doing through the course of '23. And then last, I would point to innovation, which I called out in my remarks as well. We think it's critically important that we make the proper level of investments in innovation to drive more users into the brands and to increase the value of our products to the users. We think that AI is really providing us with a once-in-a-decade opportunity to do that. And we want to make sure that we harness that opportunity and make the right level of investments in AI. We're still trying to calibrate what that means in terms of hiring, in terms of adding capabilities. We want to do this in a disciplined way, and we're cognizant that we're still very early on in AI and what it requires and what the opportunity is. So, we want to calibrate this properly, and it's something that we're carefully doing, and we'll have more on that as well as we make some final determinations and provide a more detailed outlook, in February, for 2024. But I would say the marketing investments, the AI investments are the two biggest "Swing factors" on margins that I would point to for '24. So, I hope that's helpful and I answered your question with a little more detail.
John Blackledge:
Thank you. Thanks, Gary.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shweta Khajuria of Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay. Thank you for taking my question. Could you please provide a high-level overview of the top-of-mind product and feature investment areas for Tinder that you think will have maximum impact on payer growth next year? Thanks a lot.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Shweta, for that question. I can take that one. There's a lot going on with our Tinder team. And this is our daily grind, but we continue to evolve the product experience that resonates with our users. And we're continually listening to what Gen Z says and wants out of our product. And we have to, daily, continue to improve our experience and surprise and delight our daters. When it comes to payer penetration, in '23, we reset the RPP levels. So, we have to be continually mindful of new ways to drive monetization and payer penetration at the same time. And maybe I can give a couple of examples. I see two key areas of potential new revenue opportunities at Tinder. Today, our merchandizing is very Western-centric. We believe that there are real opportunities in international markets to tweak our monetization approach to drive more payer penetration by offers and servicing built specifically for those markets and cultures. Additionally, like I mentioned earlier, I believe à la carte is another area of focus for us. Our two primary ALC products were launched over seven years ago. So, I think now is the perfect time to revisit those and add to the portfolio of ALC products. We've also seen great success with weekly package [offerings] (ph) with our younger users. We believe this can actually -- these learnings can translate well into our ALC offerings, especially with our current economy. As I mentioned earlier, only 15% of our à la carte users are non-subscribers. So, I think there is actually a big opportunity for us to drive new payers into our paying ecosystem. Like Gary mentioned, we are in the middle of our 2024 planning, and we plan to share more, as we typically do, in early 2024. Thanks for the question.
Shweta Khajuria:
Thanks, BK.
Operator:
The next question comes from Justin Patterson of KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Justin Patterson:
Great, thank you very much, and good morning. I was hoping you could comment on when you think weekly payers can get back to more normal growth? You alluded to less sequential volatility within the letter, but curious if you have a more [clear view] (ph) there. And then related, as we're a few more months into this now, I would love to hear you comment on just your learnings on accretion and lifetime value from these weekly plans? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
I just want to make sure I understood your question, Justin. You asked about weekly payers returning to year-over-year growth or payers, more broadly, at Tinder?
Justin Patterson:
Yes. Sorry for the confusion there. Payers more broadly, since we have the weekly volatility within there, unless I assume that's going to normalize sometime next year.
A – Gary Swidler:
Okay, understood. Thanks for the question. I just want to maybe set a little bit of context before I dive into the specifics of your question. And if I'm not mistaken, I think this is probably my 32nd earnings call and probably on all 31 that have come before this one, I've talked about how the company focuses on revenue growth, not specifically on payer growth or revenue per payer growth. And our goal is to drive sustainable, strong revenue growth through a combination of payer growth and RPP growth. And in some years, the product roadmap tends to be more heavily focused on payer growth. And in some years, the product roadmap tends to be more focused on RPP growth and we're somewhat agnostic. I understand that, investors prefer to see a better balance between payer growth and RPP growth. And we want to be able to deliver that. And certainly this year has been outsized on the RPP side versus the payer side. Because of conscious decisions we made, we looked at the level of pricing in the marketplace and we felt that Tinder had not been price optimizing for the last couple of years, which led to a big opportunity this year to price optimize in the U.S. market. And so, we did a big focus on making that happen. And you can see in the RPP numbers and particularly in the RPP increase that we've seen in the U.S. that there was significant room to adjust pricing in '23. And we've done that, which has enabled the company to go from zero or essentially flat revenue a couple of quarters ago to 11% revenue growth at Tinder towards the end of this year and deliver the double-digit revenue growth that we wanted to get to one quarter earlier. So, we feel good that we've hit our revenue goals for the year and we're well positioned on that front. And so, now as we turn our attention to 2024, it's reasonable to assume a more balanced approach between payer growth and revenue per payer growth as we think about the product roadmap. We've been able to see this for a while now. We've been planning for it. The Tinder team has been working to deliver a better balance. And I think that what you can expect to see is that over the course of the coming quarters, the year-over-year payer growth will gradually improve. And so, that's what we're assuming in our outlook for next year. And we are positioned to deliver marking initiatives to improve top of funnel, which is critical to driving payer growth and product initiatives, which are intended to both drive top of funnel, as well as increase payer conversion. Now, just to quantify the impact of the pricing initiatives that we did this year, it probably reduced payers in the U.S. by $500,000. So, you can think of it as because the pricing was lower than what was competitively appropriate, the payer account was essentially overstated by that amount. And so, now we've made the adjustments on pricing, and that has adjusted the payer number to a lower base that is paying a higher rate, but it's clearly very RPP and revenue accretive to the business. And so, that is kind of where we've gotten to and what the outlook is from a payer perspective. I know that the weekly subscribers have also introduced some volatility on the payer account, but that's more of a sequential item. And I think that has largely kind of washed out by the end of this year. And then, as we get through next year, I think you will have a much more normal payer base from which to grow through marketing and product initiatives. And then, I think on your question around LTV, of the weekly subs, we're confident that not only are the weekly subscribers helpful from a revenue accretion standpoint and an RPP standpoint, but that they are positive on an LTV basis. We've been monitoring the renewal rates and the resubscription rates of these subscribers, and that's been meeting or even exceeding our expectations. And so, we think that this is a long-term win. It's not some short-term thing that we've done. It's clearly a long-term, healthy thing to do for the ecosystem, and we're confident of it. And as I think you probably know, we've tested weekly subscribers on other brands of ours. So, it's not just a Tinder. We've been testing them for a while I think more than a year at some of our smaller brands, and the metrics that we've seen there are consistent with what we were seeing at Tinder. So, we now have a lot of data around resubscriptions and renewal rates, and we're confident in our understanding of the LTV of these subscribers and the fact that it's a positive LTV. And it's frankly meeting a need, as BK said for what younger users want. They're comfortable at the higher-priced, but lower duration packages, and so that's what we're delivering, and we think that's always a positive for the business.
Justin Patterson:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Cory Carpenter of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Thank you. Can you expand on your decision to settle the Google lawsuit before trial, just how you think about this outcome for Match, and then, more specifically, Gary, could you talk about the financial impact embedded in your 2024 outlook from this? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. So, first of all, I would say that we're pleased with the outcome of the settlement. Getting the litigation resolved from our perspective is a good thing. There's always uncertainty when you're going into a trial, and we feel good that we've been able to provide shareholders with certainty around this topic for at least the next few years. And more importantly, we've been able to provide our users with a choice of billing, which is something that we have consistently said is critical to our users, something that we want to be able to provide, and we're happy that we have the opportunity now to provide user choice billing to our consumer base, so we think that's a real positive. Now, unfortunately, the terms of the settlement are confidential, so there's not a ton of detail that we can go into but let me try to unpack some of the pieces for you. And if you go back all the way to October of 2021 that's where Google wanted to start implementing the change in their billing policies, and we're sitting here now more than 2 years later, effectively, and Google had asked us to escrow $40 million against the incremental costs from October 21 through the lawsuit, and as part of the settlement, we basically said we basically agreed that we won't owe any amounts prior to the end of this year, and so what that means is everything that we've been processing on credit cards for the last two-plus years there's no incremental fees owed, and I think if you go back to our earnings release in May of 2022, we estimated that the change in policy was probably about a $6 million per month cost, and so you can probably do the math on those savings over that period of time that I just enumerated. So, that's clear value we don't owe any more money, and we're getting back the $40 million, so that's how we calculate the initial piece of value. And then there's the second piece of value, which is the ongoing arrangement that we're entering into with Google, a new partnership with Google across their myriad services, which includes distribution, includes marketing, includes cloud services, it includes other things that we do with them, so it's a broad partnership, and basically, the settlement agreement, the new partnership agreement says that we will implement user choice billing, we will pay the fees that are required under that policy, which is 11% and 26%, and as a result of the new broad partnership we're going to get benefits such that we essentially offset the impact of the implementation of user choice billing, and so we view that as largely neutral in the '24, '25, and '26 period, and we'll kind of go from there. As you also, I'm sure, know and asked about there's a lot of changes afoot on the regulatory front, on the legal front, related to App Store policies, there's frequently decisions coming down that basically question the fairness of the current policies, and so as a result of that, we think it's likely that over time, there will be more change to the App Store ecosystem. Importantly, we haven't assumed any changes in our financial outlook for 2024 as a result of any regulatory or legal actions, but I think it's fair to assume that over time, there will be some, and so we'll quantify those at the appropriate time, but we certainly expect to get the benefits of whatever changes occur in whatever jurisdictions globally they occur in, and they're occurring in a lot of jurisdictions. So, that's something that we're continuing to watch, and we'll continue to monitor and discuss with you as things evolve.
Bernard Kim:
I'd like to add a couple more points, and Gary, that was a great summary of where we are. I feel now that we're, like today, starting and going forward, I feel like we're in a good place with Google, and it really reduces the amount of distractions that we've had as a team, and we can really focus together on growth. I view this as a reset of our relationship, and it helps our partnership with Google on many fronts, from marketing, to surfacing on their store, to promotion of our brands, and then, being at the table to really collaborate around innovation, AI, cloud opportunities. I believe that this can significantly benefit our business, and we look forward to actually working much closer with Google on many of these different fronts. We're also very confident now with our relationship with Google that we'll help our brands continue to innovate, but also improve the ability to reach Android users worldwide. And we can focus day-in and day-out on how we can grow together and drive product innovation.
Operator:
The next question comes from Benjamin Black of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Good morning, and thanks for taking my question, and thanks for the disclosure on Hinge, and actually specifically on Hinge. Could you talk about some of the initiatives that have supported this recent momentum that we're seeing? Also, I'd be curious to hear if you anticipate a similar headwind to payers from the launch of weekly subscriptions like you've seen with Tinder. And then, lastly, in the past, you said you expect Hinge to be a billion-dollar business over the next few years. Given the strong fundamental trends that you're seeing right now, could you perhaps give us an update on your thoughts as to when that milestone could be hit? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks for the question, Benjamin. I can take this one. Hinge is a great product and has a super clear brand narrative that continues to resonate in English-speaking markets, along with the European markets that we've just expanded to. They've really done a great job of focusing on single high-intent daters and has tremendous momentum and fantastic word of mouth. The combination of natural and driven user growth alongside monetization initiatives is driving accelerating revenue growth. The team continues to build on this position of strength. To answer your question on weekly subs, the weekly subs at Hinge is actually similar to that at Tinder, but it's less apparent because of Hinge's continued top-of-funnel strength. Like Gary mentioned, we continue to believe that weekly subscription packages were the right decision for the company and are a strong driver of revenue growth, and it's what daters want. Now, to tackle your $1 billion question, we expect Hinge to generate $400 million in direct revenue this year, and we expect a 35-plus percent growth rate for next year. So, we're basically adding about $140 million-plus in revenue for next year. If we extrapolate that growth rate as well as the revenue that we're adding, we can get to about $1 billion in maybe 4 to 5 years. Thanks for the question.
Benjamin Black:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from James Heaney of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
James Heaney:
Thanks for taking the question. Just one for Gary, are the Tinder U.S. price increases still impacting the sequential payer growth in Q4, or is it really just the weekly subscriber turn dynamic and the weaker top-of-funnel, just wanted to put a finer point on that. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Just to make sure that everybody understands, like you do, James, the way we implemented the U.S. price optimizations at Tinder in the U.S. was that not everybody saw the price changes immediately. It's only after you turn for a period of time as a subscriber, as a payer, that you see the higher prices. And so, the effect of that is sort of moving its way through the Tinder payer base on a gradual basis. I would tell you that by now, probably a majority, maybe 60% or so, of Tinder payers have seen the higher prices. So, there's still a tail of people who are going to see them over time. And so, there's still a modest sequential impact from all that in Q3. I expect there'll be a slightly more modest, I guess, impact on that in Q4. And that will continue and keep declining as an impact, but still be there as a lingering impact for the next few quarters. But it is fairly modest. Frankly, it's why you can't really see it on the chart that we have on page 13 of the shareholder letter. , it's such a small impact. And so, it's modest, but it's still there and will continue to be so for a bit longer now. And I would just say on the sequential impacts generally, you've got the impact from the U.S. price increase at Tinder, which is this modest impact that is continuing. And then, obviously, we've had the impact from the weekly subs. I think the impact from the weekly subs that we've introduced in 2023 will largely be neutralized by the end of this year. So, that's not an ongoing lingering effect into next year, as is the case with the U.S. price optimizations. Now, I do want to point out that we're going to continue to optimize prices, introduce weeklies in other markets. They're going to be smaller markets than the U.S. or some of these key international markets. But optimizations are something that Tinder is meant to be doing at all times. We didn't do it for a while in the U.S., and we played catch up this year. But in general, there's an always on kind of optimizations. There's opportunity to roll out weekly subs and price optimizations in other markets. And so, we'll do it. But because it's going to be in smaller markets, the effects of that will be much more modest over time. This year was the bigger shock to the system. And we're working our way through that, and we should be through that very soon. So, I think that should be encouraging for everybody.
Operator:
The next question comes from Lauren Schenk of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Nathan Feather:
Hey, everyone. This is Nathan Feather on for Lauren. Can you talk about the seasonality of Tinder marketing within 3Q and to what extent, if any, it impacted payer growth during the quarter? And then maybe taking a step back more broadly, how should we think about the lag time between marketing user growth and revenue growth? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks for the question. When we originally launched, it starts with a Swipe campaign, we planned to have multiple phases throughout the year. So, seasonally with Tinder, end of July, going into August tends to be slower months for Tinder. So, we took the opportunity between these phases to refresh the content for the balance of the year. It's important to note that during this time period, we're still targeting young women, and we did not see the same pullback in new users with this demo. We expect to take an overall step back in new users and have some impact of payers in Q4, which we've already articulated. We have learned a lot from this. I'm pushing the team now to have a consistent, steady beat on marketing going forward, especially in our larger markets. In that time period, we're also able to reallocate some spend into our college outreach marketing and the launch of our Matchmaker feature. Both of these campaigns integrated well-known rappers and targeted our Gen Z demographics was closely knit in with product innovation at the same time. As you can all see, these campaigns have created a tremendous amount of buzz and excitement around the product and are a key part and ingredient to retelling the Tinder narrative. Thanks for the question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ygal Arounian of Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Ygal Arounian:
Good morning, guys. What's about Tinder Premium and early signage sheets in that? And then what contribution is expected in booking 4Q and in the preliminary outlook for next year?
Bernard Kim:
I can take that one. I'm really proud of the product that the team has built and launched into the market. The amount of invites for Select that have gone out are still at a very low level. Tinder and the team have been working really hard to optimize the onboarding process and help users and Select members really understand the value proposition. So, we're continuing to iterate, learn from our users, and we'll continue to ramp up the number of invites. We do continue to feel optimistic about the financial potential of the product, and we believe that it will continue and we can generate tens of millions of dollars of revenue in the next year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Dan Salmon of New Street Research. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Hi, great. Good morning, everyone. So, I've got a two-part question here. I just want to kind of circle back on macro a little bit. I know you mentioned the impact of higher interest rates, the conflict in the Middle East, in the shareholder letter, but could you elaborate a little bit on what you see as deterioration in macro condition, especially in light of considerable GDP growth and a resilient consumer in the U.S.? And then second related part, because we just circled back a little bit on the impact of student loan repayments, it sounds like it's one of the things impacting à la carte, but it also seems like there's some changes to how younger users engage with à la carte in the first place. So, perhaps you can parse that a little bit more? Thanks.
A – Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me give that a try, Dan. I think on the student loan repayments, this was first announced in July that there was going to be a resumption. And we have been watching the trend at Tinder à la carte since then. And we have seen some weakness in U.S. versus the rest of the world where this is obviously not an issue. On the Tinder à la carte revenue, it's probably one or two points of annual growth that it's costing. And we are looking at the cohorts from an age perspective people at Tinder that we would expect would be impacted by potentially having student loans to start repaying again. And that's where we can see that there is that impact. So, we have enough data global versus U.S. and by age cohort that we can try to estimate what the impact is. And we do think there is some. It started in July when it was first announced. We have been watching it through October when the bills came around and now people had to start paying them here in November. So, it's definitely something to watch and something trying to factor into our Q4 and 2024 outlook. And I think we have been able to do that. So, that's one factor. On the other side that you mentioned -- the other thing that you mentioned, around the resiliency of the consumer, of course, you are right that the consumer has held on well through the course of this year. And GDP growth in most recent quarter has been very strong. And that's all correct. I think what we are focused on though is are we kind of getting to the end of the consumer strength. And we are starting to see signs as we look at macro data around savings rates, around credit card delinquencies and things like that that indicates to us that there is some potential risk around the consumer. So, sitting here trying to prognosticate what's going happen in our business and with consumer for 2024, I think the trends that we are seeing around some evolving consumer weakness leads us to be cautious about 2024 and to try to factor in some possibility that the consumer really does weaken over the course of '24. It feels like a prudent thing to do right now as we are providing initial outlook. I am more than happy to be wrong on that and for some day to come back and say you guys were to too conservative, that didn't happen in the economy. And things ended up being stronger than expected in '24. But I think that right now kind of taking into account all the factors that we know, it does indicate to us that being a little bit more prudent on our expectations around the consumer makes sense. And given that we have a lot of consumers at Tinder who are on the younger side who tend to have less discretionary income, we could feel a little bit of that impact. And so, we have tried to factor that in. If it ends up not been the case, then I would say there is upside to our expectations for next year.
Gary Swidler:
I think we are at time. Hopefully that was helpful, Dan and for everyone else's questions, thank you for asking this morning. We appreciate everyone joining. And we look forward to talking to everyone again on our next earnings call for Q4 which will be at the end of January and early February. Thank you very much.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. And you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Match Group Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Tanny Shelburne:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim, and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Tanny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. As I look back on the first half of this year, I'm even more motivated by the numbers we're going to discuss today and the efforts we've undertaken to lead to this record quarter. I'm a firm believer in the teams that we now have in place. I've spoken at length about the changes we've undergone. Through all the change management, I believe our teams have gelled well and have become stronger together. However, I also believe that gelling well is not enough. Leaders need to be intelligent, determined and have the right goals and people around them. We must challenge our teams to inspire and deliver. It's apparent that we have all those key ingredients to make an organization good, but we also have the most important ingredient to make our teams great, and that is grit. Grit has been evident in our team meetings, product roadmap execution, marketing, and budding AI efforts. Our teams are buzzing with excitement and I am too. Although our numbers are great, we are just at the beginning of our turnaround. There are still many single people who have yet to try our services and many more who need to come back to our apps. I am certain that if we keep executing and innovating, we will achieve our goals of helping our members get out there in real life, make new connections, and enjoy their dating experience. The energy in our L.A. office where many Tinder team members are located is completely different than it was a year ago. People are back in the office, collaborating, solving problems and forging ahead. The teams are executing on their product roadmaps and marketing initiatives, and the results of their hard work are clearly showing. We have product and marketing momentum and people are starting to think about Tinder differently. Our new "It Starts with a Swipe" marketing campaign is delivering; most importantly, by increasing overall new user sign ups and reactivations at Tinder and is having an impressive impact on our brand consideration and intent. The Tinder roadmap we showed you last year was not the sexiest as it delivered on core experiences and optimization, but it was the right one as our results now show. Our product and design teams are preparing an exciting refresh of the Tinder experience in the coming months. We want to make the app more relevant, fun, and relatable to a younger demographic. We're relentlessly focused on making sure Tinder stays true to what makes it special while also elevating the experience to be more modern and enjoyable for our members. These innovations will be amplified by great marketing. We are excited about the future of Tinder and we believe we're just getting started. Hinge continues to fire on all cylinders, leading to exceptional user and revenue growth. Hinge is now a top three most downloaded dating app in 14 countries. And while we're driving new users and growing as expected, we're also taking the learnings from our other brands and applying them at Hinge to maximize growth. Our businesses in Asia are solidly course correcting now. Azar's revenue momentum has been driven by their new AI-enabled matching algorithm, and Hakuna is in the midst of a pivot to deliver a better experience for content creators and audiences, which we believe will lead to increased engagement for users. In Japan, we're ready to roll out ads on TV for the first time ever. We believe this channel unlock will help improve user trends for the category. Our Evergreen & Emerging brands have unified so that the teams are sharing key learnings more effectively. The teams are now innovating on new features and also putting products on the same platform, which should lead to improved efficiency, innovation, speed to market and cost savings. One of our teams just launched Archer, a social-first dating app built for gay, bisexual and queer men, which is now live in New York City and is planned to roll out nationally by the end of this year. I'm really proud of Archer and the team that has brought it to life. The app is beautiful and speaks directly to the needs of the community and we're excited to see it flourish. Last point before I hand it over to Gary, every tech company needs to innovate to stay relevant. I've outlined a few areas of innovation already, but we'd be remiss to not talk about generative AI and the enthusiasm and concern it's created for industries at large. This technology is tremendous, but we're approaching it very thoughtfully as dating requires unique considerations. It's imperative that our features and tools enhance trust, authenticity, and respect, and ultimately lead to better matches and dates in real life. I believe this technology is also really fun and engaging, and when applied correctly, can drive curiosity and make the dating journey more enjoyable. By the end of the year, we expect to have launched a number of initiatives that will use generative AI to eliminate awkwardness, make dating more rewarding and surprise and delight users, all in a way that focuses on authenticity and maintaining the highest ethical and privacy standards. We remain committed to innovation and providing our users with the best possible dating experience. It's full speed ahead at Match Group, and we're energized, motivated, and feeling really good about our future. And with that, I'll turn it over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, BK, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. Our financial performance in Q2 improved dramatically as a result of the strategy we implemented when BK became CEO in mid-2022. In particular, the focused product and marketing initiatives at Tinder have really started to deliver financial results. We firmly believe the momentum there plus continued strong performance at Hinge and thoughtful operating adjustments and financial discipline across the company position us well for the future in terms of growth, profitability, and free cash flow. Match Group's total revenue for Q2 was $830 million, up 4% year-over-year. This represented record quarterly total revenue for Match Group. FX was a notable headwind once again and $3 million more severe than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call. Total revenue for Match Group would have been $844 million, up 6% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis. Q2 direct revenue, which is revenue we earn directly from our users, was $816 million, up 5% year-over-year, 6% FX neutral. This was driven by a 10% year-over-year improvement in RPP to $17.41, while total payers were down 5% year-over-year to 15.6 million. On an FX-neutral basis, Q2 RPP was up 12% year-over-year company-wide. Tinder outperformed our expectations in the quarter as the revenue momentum we saw from price optimizations in the U.S. and weekly subscriptions over delivered. Q2 Tinder direct revenue was up 6% year-over-year at $475 million, up 7% FX neutral. Tinder RPP was up 10% year-over-year at $15.12 due to the U.S. price optimizations and weekly packages. Tinder saw solid year-over-year subscription revenue momentum throughout Q2 with June direct revenue growth reaching 8% year-over-year. Tinder payers declined 4% year-over-year, 184,000 sequentially, as the price optimizations in the U.S. led to conversion declines. After testing pricing changes in Canada, the U.K., the EU, Australia, and Japan in Q2, Tinder opted to leave pricing largely unchanged in those markets as prices there were largely already optimized, but did roll out weekly packages there. Tinder also saw improved new user and reactivation trends in the U.S. in the quarter following the launch of the new marketing campaign "It Starts with a Swipe", and we saw lifts in other geographies as well. The lift has been pronounced among females and younger users, Tinder's focused demos. Many of Tinder's upcoming initiatives are aimed at further strengthening top-of-funnel in key markets around the world. Our Hinge brand continues to perform very strongly. Hinge grew direct revenue 35% year-over-year, an 8 point acceleration over Q1. Hinge experienced strong user growth in both core English speaking markets and its European expansion markets, leading to 50% year-over-year download growth. Hinge payers were up nearly 25% year-over-year at nearly 1.2 million, while RPP of over $25 was up over 8% year-over-year in Q2. Our MG Asia business saw direct revenue decline 4% year-over-year in Q2, a vast improvement from double-digit year-over-year decline in Q1. Direct revenue was up 3% FX neutral. At Hyperconnect, Azar grew direct revenue 24% year-over-year as implementation of a new AI-driven matching algorithm led to meaningful increases in engagement and conversion. Azar also saw some stronger-than-expected seasonal trends in Q2. While Azar has been a real bright spot, Hakuna and Pairs saw year-over-year direct revenue declines in Q2. The Japanese market continues to experience subpar user growth. Although we're optimistic that being able to start to market on TV this fall could improve trends. At Evergreen & Emerging, direct revenue declined 5% year-over-year, which was also a notable improvement compared to Q1. The Emerging brands, including Chispa and BLK, continue to grow direct revenue strongly year-over-year. Indirect revenue was $13 million in Q2, down 7% year-over-year, but consistent with Q1's total, as prices per ad impression declined year-over-year. Operating income was $215 million in Q2 for a margin of 26%. Q2 adjusted operating income, or AOI, was $301 million, exceeding $300 million for the first time ever. It was up 5% year-over-year, representing a margin of 36%. Q2 AOI and margins were above our expectations, as Tinder outperformed and we continued to achieve cost savings across the company. Overall expenses, including SBC expense, were up 4% year-over-year in Q2, excluding depreciation and amortization/impairment of intangibles. We incurred approximately $6 million of severance and similar costs in the quarter. Cost of revenue, including SBC expense, grew 4% year-over-year and represented 30% of total revenue, flat year-over-year. App Store fees increased $18 million year-over-year, including the $8 million escrow payment to Google. The last required escrow payment of approximately $3 million was made in July. Selling and marketing costs, including SBC expense, increased $11 million or 9% year-over-year, primarily due to increased spend at Tinder and at Hinge as it continued to expand internationally, offset by lower spending at multiple other brands. Selling and marketing spend was flat as a percentage of total revenue at 16%. G&A costs, including SBC expense, declined 3% year-over-year and dropped 1 point as a percentage of total revenue to 13% as legal and professional fees declined. Product development costs, including SBC expense, grew 9% year-over-year, primarily as a result of higher compensation at Tinder and Hinge, and were flat as a percent of total revenue at 11%. Reduction in force and capitalizing more product development costs in Q2 than in the prior-year quarter, mostly at Tinder and our Emerging brands, helped lower these expenses in the quarter. Interest expense increased 12% year-over-year in Q2, primarily due to the floating rate structure of our term loan, but interest income also increased meaningfully given higher rates we're earning on our cash balances. We ended the quarter with $741 million of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments on hand. Our gross leverage was 3.4 times trailing AOI and net leverage was 2.8 times at the end of Q2, below our target of less than 3 times. We repurchased 1 million of our common shares in May and June at an average price of approximately $32 per share, totaling approximately $33 million, which utilized a small portion of the recently implemented $1 billion share buyback program. We began buying back shares in the open window after our last earnings call, but we weren't able to buy back as many shares as we had intended over the past three months due to the strong stock price run up, which occurred after the window had closed. We will revisit buybacks again after this call, mindful of our updated capital allocation policy. For Q3 '23, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $875 million to $885 million, up 8% to 9% year-over-year. We expect a significant acceleration of year-over-year RPP growth in Q3 compared to Q2, particularly at Tinder due to the U.S. price optimizations and weekly packages. We expect FX to be less than a 2 point year-over-year tailwind in Q3. At Tinder, we expect direct revenue to be up close to 10% year-over-year, with FX slightly more than a 2 point year-over-year tailwind. This level of growth would be a quarter ahead of our expected pace. The building momentum gives us confidence in achieving solidly double-digit year-over-year direct revenue growth at Tinder in Q4. We expect Tinder payers to decline mid-single digits year-over-year and to be down sequentially in Q3, but by less than in Q2. This is better than we had been anticipating, in part due to the decision not to implement pricing optimizations in several international markets. We estimate that Q3 sequential payer additions would be positive, absent the effects of U.S. price increases and weekly subscription packages globally. The year-over-year payer decline is also due to Tinder's new user trends still being below desired levels, as well as the fact that pricing changes are still rolling through the U.S. payer base. While user trends have improved notably over the past few months, we remain focused on returning to user growth through marketing and product initiatives in order to drive better payer and revenue growth. We believe strongly that we are on the right track in this regard. Note that pricing changes and weekly subscription packages creates short-term volatility in our payer numbers. Weekly packages lead to bumps when introduced as conversion increases, then declines when these shorter duration payers roll off. Over the coming quarters, we expect this to even out. We're confident that these shorter packages are long-term revenue accretive and bring other meaningful benefits such as increasing conversion, especially among younger users and females. We expect Hinge to deliver meaningfully accelerating year-over-year direct revenue growth again in Q3, driven by continued strong performance in English speaking markets, continued European expansion, and various monetization initiatives. We remain confident that Hinge's momentum will lead it to deliver approximately $400 million of direct revenue in 2023. We expect Match Group Asia direct revenue to be close to flat year-over-year in Q3. We expect modest improvement in year-over-year direct revenue growth rates for Hyperconnect and limited change for Pairs in Q3 compared to Q2. We expect our Evergreen & Emerging brands direct revenue to decline low-single digits year-over-year in Q3, with moderating declines at the Evergreen brands and continued strong growth at the Emerging brands. We expect Q3 indirect revenue to be up modestly year-over-year in Q3 as we begin to see some overall improvement in the ad sales market and we continue to broaden ad opportunities across our platform. We expect AOI of $320 million to $325 million in Q3, representing year-over-year growth of 13% to 14% and margin of 37% at the midpoint of the ranges. We expect overall marketing spend to increase year-over-year in Q3 by about 2 points as a percentage of total revenue compared to Q2. We'll be spending up at Tinder and Hinge as well as some of our newer growth apps, including Archer and The League. We expect IAP fees to continue to be a year-over-year headwind in Q3, though we have stopped placing funds into the Google escrow after July per the terms we agreed to. We expect to continue to be cautious on spending in all other categories within our control. We expect to incur approximately $2 million of severance and similar costs in Q3. For full year 2023, Match Group is on pace to achieve 6% to 7% top-line growth and deliver better AOI margins than we did in 2022, as Tinder's revenue continues to reaccelerate and we remain very cost disciplined overall. We're excited by the momentum we've seen in the business over the past few months. We're confident that the strategies we've implemented, changes we've made, and approach we've taken are setting us up for more consistent top-line growth at strong levels of profitability. While we are pleased with the progress, we recognize there is more to do, especially at Tinder, where delivering stronger user trends and sustained payer and revenue growth is squarely in our focus. We're confident the company is headed in the right direction and look forward to continuing to provide our stakeholders with updates on our performance in the coming quarters. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Hey, thanks for the question. I think for Gary, could you expand on what you saw on testing that led you not to raise Tinder prices in international markets? And then, just any way to help quantify how big of an impact that specifically you expect it to have on Tinder payers and RPP in the second half of the year? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Cory, this is BK. I'll take the first part of that question and then Gary can take the second part of the question. When our new management team took over Tinder, we asked the teams to go and extensively test pricing globally. What we wanted to do was really kind of understand the member value that we are providing versus the price points that were live in the marketplace. This led to micro decisions around rollouts of pricing optimizations. So, we did test our pricing in the U.K., Canada, Australia, EU and Japan, and we did not see the revenue benefits that we saw in the United States. Part of this was due to that these markets were already priced competitively, like Gary mentioned in his comments. The reality is that the U.S. actually hadn't adjusted prices for quite some time, so there wasn't as much room for optimization versus where we were in the international markets. So, I think that generally our price points were already higher in the U.S. versus where we were internationally. An example I can give is, on Gold pricing, one-month subscription, in the U.S., after pricing optimizations, were actually at parity from where we were priced in the U.K. We tested this throughout the entire quarter before making this decision to stay put in international markets. Gary?
Gary Swidler:
Yes. So, Cory, on the payers, there's a lot going on there and I'm going to try to unpack it for you a little bit, because you've got variability that's been introduced by price optimization, you've got variability that's been introduced by the weekly subscription packages, and they're rolling out at different times. First, we have the effects from the U.S. ones, and then from the international ones. So, there's a lot of movement in the numbers. Obviously, they are better as a result of deciding not to roll out the price changes in the international markets, and they're meaningfully better than they would have been had we done that. But what's also happened since the last time we chatted on an earnings call is that we've more slowly rolled out the pricing changes in the U.S. market. And so, right now, that's affecting the Q2 payers numbers. It's going to have some lingering effects in Q3 and likely into Q4 as we continue to slowly show those pricing changes to the U.S. payer base. So that's kind of one thing that's happening a little bit more slowly than we initially expected, but we obviously test and adjust and we think that's the right thing to do. And then of course, the change that you mentioned around the weekly -- around the payer -- the pricing changes not having been introduced internationally. So there's a lot of different pressures going on here. It will continue to roll through over the coming quarters. I do think that overall the third quarter sequential trends are going to be meaningfully better than what we saw in Q2, which was down 184,000. And overall, I think once we get through this year as we turn the corner into 2024, the noise that has resulted from all these changes, which are in our control, around introducing weekly subscription packages and price changes will have largely burned through and will be into a much more normal cadence of payer additions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Gary Swidler:
Jason, are you there? It doesn't sound like we have Jason. Operator, maybe we should move to the next one.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Youssef Squali with Truist. Please go ahead.
Youssef Squali:
Great. Thank you very much. So, Gary, staying on the topic of pricing for Tinder, what percentage of the user base is now being impacted by the price increase? And how much more headroom do you see in RPP in Q3 and the rest of the year? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
So, I would estimate that roughly 50% of the U.S. payer base is now paying the higher prices. And just so you understand, our approach around this is that payers don't see or pay the higher prices until they churn off and are off Tinder for a period of time. And then when they come back again, which happens frequently, as you know, then they see the higher prices and become higher paid payer. So, we think that's fair to the consumer and is the approach we've taken, which is why it's taking time for this to roll through the U.S. payer base. From an RPP perspective, we saw the 10% year-over-year lift in RPP in Q2 at Tinder. And I think you should expect to see accelerating increases in RPP in Q3 and Q4, which is going to drive significant revenue acceleration as well at Tinder over the course of Q3 and then into Q4. We are adjusting prices pretty meaningfully. The weekly subscription packages are having a significant contribution in RPP as well. So that's a big driver of the overall revenue performance and performance at Tinder this quarter and for the next couple of quarters.
Youssef Squali:
That's very helpful. Thanks, Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Sure.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Alexandra Steiger with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Alexandra Steiger:
Great. Thank you for taking my questions. Could you please double-click on the new refreshed core experience at Tinder that is launching later this month? And how you expect these new features to drive either engagement and/or monetization on the platform? And then on a related note, what are some other new features at Tinder that you're excited about that could potentially have an impact in the near to medium term? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Alexandra, for the question. So, if you actually look at Tinder today, it's really similar to the product that was launched 10 years ago. I tried the app when I was in Los Angeles about 10 years ago, and I tried the app today and it felt pretty similar. So, what I've done is I've challenged the teams to make Tinder feel more vibrant and alive, going through like an overall and potential refresh of the product experience. What the teams were able to do creatively is to look at ways to bring more depth into member profiles and also keep that core experience intact. This is actually coming from extensive testing with our core users and direct feedback from Gen Z and our younger users. I think this experience will have a more modern look and feel and drive engagement, which will lead to more success on the platform and more conversations. But there is a balancing act here. The swipe is critical for Tinder's identity and experience, and people come in to swipe profiles. People love it. So, I want to make sure that members engage in more meaningful ways, so we have to make sure that we're balancing that swipe experience with a great UX that delivers a new experience that resonates with the new generation of users. And I really believe we've nailed it. I feel really positive about the work that our product and design teams have done together, and we'll be rolling that over the next couple of months.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mario Lu with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Mario Lu:
Great. Thanks for taking the question. So, a similar follow-up in terms of the Tinder second half features. You mentioned in the shareholder letter, it will be focused on Gen Z as well as AI capabilities. So, just wondering if you could expand a bit more on why you're confident that these features will drive engagement and monetization. And then also, does this imply that Tinder Coin is no longer in the roadmap? Thanks.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Mario, for the question. Our Tinder roadmap was designed and structured in a way that we could focus on delivery that could drive real wins for us in the first half of the year and build momentum for us throughout the entire year. We're successful in rolling out pricing optimizations and weekly subscriptions, and that has built that freedom and momentum to really think creatively about what we deliver for the second half of the year. So, I'm really actually excited about some of the great initiatives that we have in the second half of the year, like the product refresh that I mentioned earlier and also the launch of our premium experience. Tinder Coins is still on the roadmap, and we're currently testing and it's an iterative process to figure out what the best value proposition for our members. So, we're testing it right now, but we don't see it contributing to 2023 revenue. But when I generally think about the features on the roadmap, I have to make prioritization decisions. And with the advent of generative AI and the excitement and enthusiasm that we're seeing across all of our different teams, I've made the call to prioritize generative AI initiatives with Tinder over other initiatives like Coins. And I think that will deliver value to our members sooner. Thanks for the question.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Dan Salmon with New Street. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Great. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess it's a two-parter, and BK highlighted a piece of it there. And so, I'd like to just ask about the Tinder Super -- premium tier a little bit more. So, you're rolling it out in the U.S. this fall. Just any color that you can give us on how impactful it will be? Is that going to be impactful, let's say, weekly subscription sounds like they've been so far? Or the number of power users or the so-called whales, is that too small to be material? And then just the second part, you're rolling it out in the U.S., any early thoughts on the potential for the product -- a product like that on a global basis? Thanks.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks for the question, Dan. The general concept is that we are providing an experience for a small percentage of our Tinder members. And the value proposition is basically give these members a better way to get high-quality matches faster and sooner and make the experience overall even more fun. We've been actually testing multiple components of this experience with our members today, and we're seeing actually real benefits. So I'm personally really excited about these testing results. It's really early right now, so we don't know what the final pricing is yet. But at a high level, if you actually take a small fraction of our payers at higher price points, you actually get a number that's in the tens of millions of dollars on an annual basis. So I think that's actually pretty impactful. This is an area that I have a lot of experience in, where a small segment of users drive a high amount of monetization. So, this I see as a real opportunity for us.
Dan Salmon:
Very helpful. Thanks, BK.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I have a follow-up on Tinder payer trends. But with international pricing now sort of off the table for the time being and the disruption from U.S. pricing seemingly coming to an end, when you pair that with improved conversion trends from weekly packages, I'd be curious to hear about your outlook for Tinder payer net additions for the fourth quarter. I mean, should we anticipate positive sequential growth there? And I know it's early, but how should we be thinking about the balance between RPP and payer growth as we look forward to 2024? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
So, I think the way to think about the rest of '23, first of all, Ben, is that the year is largely about increasing RPP. As I mentioned earlier, we saw a dramatic increase in Q2. We're expecting even greater increase in Q3, and then continued acceleration into Q4 because of the weekly packages and the price optimizations. On the payer side, as a result of all these things playing through the payer base, we're seeing year-over-year declines in the mid-single digits in terms of payers, and that's something that I expect to continue for the next couple of quarters. And there's a few different drivers of that. Obviously, the decisions we're making around weekly subscriptions and pricing is part of that. And the other part of it, of course, is what we're seeing on new user growth. And so, new user growth is getting stronger, but it's not to the point yet that we'd like to see it at, but we're driving that up further and further. And so, we continue doing that with marketing initiatives and with product initiatives. I think as that turns more positive, we'll be able to drive improved year-over-year payers growth as well. So, as we think about 2024, as I mentioned in an earlier answer, a lot of the volatility from the initiatives we're doing this year around revenue, around pricing and weekly subscription packages should have rolled off. And then, we expect to see a more balanced impact from payer increases next year as well as from revenue per payer increases. But I would caution that it really does depend on what we roll out from a product standpoint. So, for example, we're going to roll out -- we're intending to roll out the new premium tier late this year. That will be a driver of 2024 performance, and that is clearly a revenue per payer play, not specifically a payer play. So, we have to look at kind of what the product roadmap is to make some determinations. It's too early for us to kind of go through the whole product roadmap for 2024. We will provide more color on all of that in the upcoming quarters. But again, I would like to see, and we're targeting a more balanced contribution of payers and RPP to drive overall strong Tinder revenue growth next year. We're encouraged by the progress we've made on top-of-funnel, and that's clearly something we have our eyes squarely on. And we want to keep improving, which is what will help enable us to drive stronger year-over-year payer growth next year after this year being more of an RPP story. I hope that helps answer your questions.
Benjamin Black:
It does. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Great.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great. Thanks. On Hinge, could you just provide some more color on the key drivers of the revenue acceleration in 2Q and kind of continuing into 3Q? And then, what have you seen -- I think it's early, but what have you seen with the new weekly sub-tier launch at Hinge? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks for the question, John. So, what we're -- we saw in Q2 for Hinge and what we're expecting to see in Q3 and Q4, as you said, is really direct revenue growth acceleration through the course of the rest of the year. And there's really three things going on in the business that are kind of layering on top of each other that are leading to that revenue acceleration, and we've already seen it in the most recent quarter. The first is continued very strong user growth in core English-speaking markets. The second is user growth as a result of the expansion into new markets, particularly in Continental Europe. And the third is a variety of monetization initiatives that we've rolled out, including the new subscription tiers that we've talked about before that we rolled out earlier this year. And those are continuing to drive revenue growth from an expanding user base in the core English-speaking markets as well as the Continental European markets. So, that's why you see this effect of compounding revenue growth as we proceed forward with the Hinge business, and the visibility into that is fairly good at this point. The other thing that you asked about was weekly subscription packages. So as you know, we haven't had those across the portfolio in prior years. We've been rolling them out across a number of the brands over the course of this year. We started with a couple of our smaller brands. We saw real success there. We rolled them out to Tinder. We've obviously seen real success there as well. And so, it makes sense for us to use that knowledge and those learnings and roll them on to Hinge as well. It wasn't something that we were specifically planning for this year, but we decided to do that as well. We've rolled them out successfully over the last three-or-so weeks at Hinge. And we're seeing basically similar impact from weekly subscription at Hinge as what we've seen at the other brands. So, it's always slightly different at each brand, but in general, we're seeing improving conversion, improving renewal rates. And so, what that's doing is giving us confidence that we're going to hit approximately 40% year-over-year revenue -- direct revenue growth for Hinge for 2023, which will get us to around $400 million of revenue. And we'll see growth rates in Q3 and Q4 that are continuing to accelerate from what we saw in Q2. So, all systems go with an extra jolt of improvement at Hinge from the weekly subscription packages.
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Shweta Khajuria:
Thank you for taking my question. Just a high-level question for you, BK, on AI. So, you touched on it in your prepared remarks as well as in the letter. Could you provide a little bit more context or concrete examples of where you're already leveraging AI-enabled technology at Tinder and Hinge? And how you think that could impact top- and bottom-line for those two businesses in particular? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Shweta, for that question. This has been a really exciting moment for our company, Match Group. AI has really inspired our technologists and product people across the entire company to really think about ways that we can create new experiences, but also solve for key dating, what I call, kind of pain points. So, what I've kind of harnessed that like energy and the data that we have as an organization around delivering great products over the next couple of months that solve against some of these problems. So, I'll use Tinder as an example. Sometimes people are really excited to jump into the Tinder experience. They downloaded off the App Store. And then, in that exact moment where you have to upload five pictures, people get generally nervous or uncomfortable, like, "What is the right picture that I've taken over the last year to make my dating profile great?" So sometimes those people just literally turn out of the process and say, "Maybe dating apps are not for me." We could use AI, and we're actually creating a photo selection feature that we're testing that can take out the stress away, that can look at your photo album and say, "Okay, these are the five best photos for your Tinder profile," but also still like remaining authentic to that person and the profile that they want to create. I really think that AI can help our users build better profiles in a more efficient way that really do showcase their personalities and stand out in the marketplace. When it comes to the organization, we have a lot of different teams kind of like raising their hand and saying, hey, like, I want to work on some really exciting AI ideas. But internally, we've created these centers of excellence where AI engineers are coming together and collaborating on features that I think could benefit multiple brands across the portfolio. An example I would use is Hyperconnect is actually working on AI features for Tinder. And then in E&E, our teams are working on AI features that are -- that could be great for Plenty of Fish, Meetic, Match and OkCupid. So there's a lot of creative ideas and concepts that we're currently testing, and we plan to roll out these features in the coming months. We know that this is a really big opportunity that can have like a really meaningful impact on users, their experience and our business. But at the same time, we have to be really thoughtful about making sure that we're giving the right thought to authenticity and ethical and privacy concerns. So, we're doing all those different things as we roll out these features. Thanks for the question, Shweta.
Shweta Khajuria:
Thanks, BK.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Justin Patterson:
Great. Thank you very much. Good morning. Gary, you've alluded the Q4 growth rates a couple of times within Tinder and Hinge. I'm curious, could you provide an update on your 2023 revenue outlook, where you think you'll land on that 5% to 10% range? And then thinking about just the AOI margin side, you did improve the language on that to increase versus 2022. How should we think about that magnitude of increase and the puts and takes to get there? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. So, let me kind of unpack the revenue outlook. I stated in my remarks, right now, I think we're looking for 6% to 7% year-over-year total revenue growth for the Match Group, so above the bottom of that range and within the range that we provided the 5% to 10%. And that includes the 8% to 9% year-over-year revenue growth outlook that we provided for Q3. If you go further, we said Tinder is expected to deliver approximately 10% year-over-year direct revenue growth in Q3 and solidly double-digit, so assume better than the Q3 number in Q4 as we see continued acceleration in Tinder's growth. If Tinder is able to deliver solidly double-digit growth in Q4, it's logical to think that the overall company is going to deliver a similar kind of growth rate as well has been the general pattern, and that's how the math works out. And so, if you layer the Tinder growth and then you have Hinge, which is accelerating from the 35% that we have in Q2 and accelerating through the rest of the year. And then if you look at the other businesses, they're down mid-single digits is our expectation for Q3. So, I think we might see a little bit of improvement there. Certainly, there's a path for a little bit of improvement. And I think when you boil all that together, you've got the components that gets you to double-digit growth for the company in Q4 and then the 6% to 7% overall for the full year. So, I think those are all the pieces and tells you where we're going. And I would say that the clarity in all of this and our confidence continues to improve, which is obviously very good to see. And then, from an AOI margin perspective, the driver really is the level or the magnitude of Tinder growth. As it continues to grow, it's high-margin revenue, and that obviously is helping the overall company's AOI margin. So, sitting here today, we could see a path to at least 50 basis points of margin improvement on a year-over-year basis, 2023 over 2022. But obviously, that will be impacted by what Tinder and some of the other businesses do as the rest of the year progresses. And then, we also will have some decisions to make in terms of marketing spend levels at Tinder as we see the effects of all of its marketing and what it's doing from a user growth perspective, but obviously, it's helping. So, it's possible we're going to want to spend into that strength. And then, the newer apps like Archer and The League, if we see those take off like we're hoping in the back half of the year, it will make sense to spend marketing dollars into those businesses as well to help set us up for a strong Q1 next year, which is our most important quarter of the year, and to give us the right level of momentum into 2024. We've talked before, we didn't have the momentum we'd like to see coming into 2023, which made payer growth and revenue much more challenging in the early goings of 2023. So, we'd like to make sure we're set up well to drive accelerating revenue growth into 2024. I think the organic trends are obviously very good. But to the extent we can supplement it with marketing spend, we will do that to give us the momentum we want into 2024 as well. Hopefully, that helps you as you think through the trends on AOI and on revenue.
Justin Patterson:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Nathan Feather:
Hey, you've got Nathan Feather on for Lauren. So, continuing on the AOI trends and given the impressive 2Q operating income result, what are kind of the one or two key drivers which could lead to further AOI upside in the back half? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
So, as I mentioned on the last call, I mean, I think the biggest variable is what level of growth we're going to get across the company and specifically at Tinder. We've seen a pretty dramatic acceleration just over the last three months versus what we were expecting, because the initiatives -- the revenue initiatives are really working better than we thought. So, we have to see how that continues to proceed through the year. But obviously, we're feeling better and better about the revenue growth trajectory at Tinder and, frankly, across the company where we've seen dramatic improvements, it's pretty much everywhere. So that's, I think, the biggest variable. And then on the other side of it is the marketing spend, primarily. I think everything else is pretty known in terms of what we're going to do; our hiring is pretty muted, you know what the App Store fees are going to be. And so, the biggest variable is marketing spend. It's obviously entirely within our control. But to focus on additional growth for 2024 and beyond, we're going to calibrate the growth that's being derived from the businesses, the benefits we see from the marketing spend we're doing and try to figure out what level of marketing investment we want to make in the various businesses in the -- towards the very end of this year. Obviously, we'll provide lots more color on what we think is going to happen in Q4 on our next call. But we're very happy to see the outperformance. That's giving us some really nice choices to make, and we're thrilled to be in that position right now.
Operator:
Our next question comes from James Heaney with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
James Heaney:
Thanks for the questions. I would love to hear a little bit more about just what you're seeing in Japan. Are there any things that Malgosia and the APAC team are focused on to reaccelerate growth in that market specifically? I mean, it sounds like a payers brand campaign is in motion, but curious if there's anything else that the team has planned. Thanks.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, James. Great question. The Japanese market has remained challenging for us. What we can do is put the right team in place, and we're really excited about the new CEO that has joined us and is overseeing Pairs. I think he's going to do a really fantastic job. In tandem with that, it's really great that Malgosia is on the ground running the business. And she really has hit the ground running, meeting with all the different teams and then instituting product changes that I think will be impactful in the marketplace. So, we're exploring all the different options that we can do to jumpstart the business in Japan. But what we're really excited about in the short term is being able to advertise for the first time on TV in Japan. We actually believe that this channel unlock could be really meaningful. And you're right in saying that we are ready, the second that, that is available with the Pairs marketing campaign that we're really excited about to be on television for the first time. Thanks for the question.
James Heaney:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brian Fitzgerald with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Brian Fitzgerald:
Thanks. On Archer, we wanted to ask if you could provide any specifics on the rollout? And how you're approaching that from a marketing perspective? And any early indications around the strength of the product market fit? Thanks.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Brian, for the question. We're really proud of the Archer team and the experience that we're providing for gay daters. When it comes to an indication on how it's performing, it's still really early. It's only been live in the New York market for about 10 days, but daters are happily creating profiles right now. Our plan continues to be that we plan to roll out nationwide by the end of this year. When it comes to marketing, I'm really inspired by the approach that the team has taken. They're doing events with social influencers. They just recently had a big event on Fire Island in New York City, and we're really excited about the creative marketing efforts that the teams are executing against. Thanks for the question.
Brian Fitzgerald:
Thanks, BK.
Operator:
Our last question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Hey, thanks for getting me back in. I should have played Mega Millions, I guess, I'll hit the earnings call lottery getting both at the same time. Just a quick question on weekly subs. So, if the mix of weekly subs increases, does that increase churn? And how do you think about managing your outlook if there's less visibility around churn? And then, how do you -- is it a weekly package more like à la carte? And historically, Europe was more à la carte already. Just -- maybe just broadly, how are you thinking about that? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me take that one. First of all, it's important to point out that weekly subs are new to us, and we're still learning from the trends we're seeing there, especially around renewals. We don't have as much data as we'd like. Obviously, we have much more data around monthly subscriptions and longer-term packages. So, you're right, it's newer, it's harder to manage, it's harder to determine the outlook. We've gotten better at it just over the last few months, and we'll continue to get better at it as we get more data and time goes on. And it's also important to point out that we don't really manage our outlook or we don't provide an outlook based on payers and revenue per payer. We provide it based on revenue, where we have a lot better visibility because, frankly, the revenue impact from the weekly subs has been much, much more stable. It has been the impact on the payer count that has been more challenging to analyze. So, we're providing the best outlook we can on payers and RPP drivers within revenue because people keep asking us about it. But the reality is we don't look at it that way as much as we do on the revenue side. That's what we're targeting. So, it has introduced more variability. It has made things more complicated. I do think it will get better. And you're also right, there is more churn. These people come on for a short time, they go off. And so, we're seeing that dynamic. But the good news is the conversion rates are up, the renewal rates are strong, and it is helping especially with younger users who are really liking the weekly subscription packages. And so that's a real positive for the business. And also, I'd point out that all of this is a testing process. The business is a dynamic business. We're constantly readjusting. We've introduced this new type of subscription package now, and there has been real demand for it. And so, we need to keep testing. And so right now, we're giving our best outlook for Q3 in terms of payers being better than they were sequentially than in Q2. It's still early to say what the impact is going to be on Q4. There's a lot of variables around kind of all these things working themselves through the payer system. But what I can tell people with a lot of certainty is the revenue growth is accelerating, and that's the main thing that we care about and are focused on. The revenue per payer is accelerating. And some of this variability is going to be reduced as we get towards the end of this year. So that will make things a little bit more kind of clearer from a visibility standpoint. And we'll provide as much updates and information as we can. But I would discourage people from using payers as a proxy for top-of-funnel strength. What we're seeing and what indicates that there is top-of-funnel strength is improvement in the new registrations or new user sign-ups and reactivation. And we provided that chart in the letter, which clearly indicates that a 10% year-over-year improvement from a growth rate perspective in those top-of-funnel metrics. That's showing us that we're bringing in more people in, which is very critical, and we're going to continue to drive marketing and product initiatives to do that, which should continue to help us grow from a top-of-funnel perspective. Obviously, we can continue to convert those people and that will ultimately drive payers, and that's something we're going to -- we're expecting to see over the coming quarters, which will help drive payers and ultimately contribute to revenue. That is the metric that we're focused on to see the overall health of the business. The payers, we can impact that by pricing decisions we make and product decisions we make. If we rolled out $1 subscription, the payer numbers would go up, but it might not be revenue enhancing. So, we've got to consistently test and adjust to drive overall revenue for the business, not specifically a metric like payers or even RPP. And that's the way that we think about the business and think about how to drive long-term value for shareholders.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Hopefully, that's helpful, Jason. We are glad you're safe and were able to join the call. And we thank everyone for joining this morning, and we look forward to talking to you all again on the next earnings call. Thank you so much.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Tanny Shelburne:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Tanny, and good morning, everyone. Having served as CEO for nearly a full-year, I want to start off by highlighting the accomplishments this team has achieved and all the opportunities ahead. We've made changes to set up Match Group for long-term growth, but there is a lot more work to do and areas to improve on. We restructured Match Group's businesses to optimize internal operations, increase cross-brand collaboration and improve the speed to ship products. These changes are having a real impact and the teams have never worked this closely together before. We are working together to innovate, tackle challenges and reaccelerate growth. Hinge continues to set the bar for what an A+ acquisition should look like. We acquired Hinge in 2018 when the app was generating just under $1 million in revenue. Just five years later, Hinge has surpassed 1 million payers and is on track to generate approximately $400 million in total revenue for 2023. Hinge's exponential growth is largely due to the team's passion and ability to focus on product, coupled with Match Group's expertise and operational support. In addition to its meaningful traction in English-speaking markets, Hinge is successfully expanding internationally, and we are impressed with these early results. The team also successfully launched a new subscription tier, HingeX, and has so much runway ahead. I continue to be impressed by the momentum at Hinge, and I'm excited to see them grow to new heights as part of the Match Group family. Now turning to Tinder, where the majority of our energy has been focused. As you all know, we've made some changes to the Tinder leadership team and restructured Tinder's organization to immediately address the lack of output that was occurring. These changes have shored up the frequent turnover and loss of institutional knowledge that Tinder was facing. Just to give you an example, we had roughly 15 VPs and above voluntarily depart Tinder in the months before the new leadership team took over. Since then, we have not had a single person of that level voluntarily depart Tinder. Back in February, we shared a detailed product roadmap for 2023. This roadmap is a culmination of our near-term vision for Tinder, and the whole organization has rallied around it. The changes we've made are working. In fact, the team is shipping and testing more features than they were at the height of their delivery in 2021. Tinder recently launched weekly subscription packages in the U.S. in addition to optimizing tiered pricing. We launched these initiatives at the very end of Q1, and we are starting to see early revenue momentum beginning to build in April, but it is still early. One of the things I've learned in my role as CEO of Tinder is that dating platforms have a delicate ecosystem, and it's important to fully understand the impact, new features or minor adjustments can have on the user experience, not only for payers, but non-payers as well. So it is vital for our teams to rigorously test and ensure we are introducing the right features for the ecosystem as a whole. This cautious approach to testing new features and rolling them out methodically is one reason why the revenue impact is muted at the start, but will grow over time. Another key focus has been redefining Tinder's brand narrative. Tinder rolled out its marketing campaign in Q1 and it's having a strong initial impact. Its primary focus was to improve perception, especially among young women. As we detailed in the letter, we've seen noticeable improvements in brand consideration and intent. Marketing began in the U.S. and UK and then has now expanded to additional markets. As a result, Tinder has started to see improved user growth in several key markets, including the U.S. and UK, but it is only the first step in a multi-phase campaign. As the team continues to build on this momentum and focus on execution, I believe Tinder is well positioned to exit 2023 with improved financial performance and longer term sustainable growth. Zooming back out, Match Group's purpose is to expand and innovate the dating experience for singles around the world so everyone can find a meaningful connection. I have tasked our new CTO to work with our leadership team to evaluate emerging technologies like AI, which we believe can be a massive unlock for the category, the same way that the shift to mobile led to the creation of Tinder, which redefined the category just 10 years ago. There is a significant opportunity to leverage AI in profile creation, matching and discovery, as well as throughout the post-Match experience to unlock new user adoption. We believe we can leverage these new capabilities to drive the next phase of growth. As a leadership team, we are cognizant of the delicate balance between achieving short-term revenue wins while driving sustained shareholder value. We are focused on achieving both objectives prudently, assessing the trade-offs and opportunities to hit our 2023 expectations while also delivering unique, innovative and compelling user experiences for years to come. And with that, I'll kick it over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, BK, and hello, everyone. Our Q1 2023 total revenue was still not to the standards we expect of ourselves coming in at $787 million, down 1% year-over-year. FX was a notable headwind once again as our total revenue would have been $822 million, up 3% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis. The year-over-year FX headwind was $7 million more than we expected when we provided our Q1 outlook on our February earnings call. The unexpected additional headwind resulted in total revenue slightly below the range that we provided on that call. Direct revenue, which is revenue we earned directly from our users, was down 1% year-over-year, up 3% FX-neutral in Q1. This was driven by total payers down 3% year-over-year to $15.9 million and RPP up 2% year-over-year at $16.26. On an FX-neutral basis, Q1 RPP was up 6% year-over-year company-wide. Tinder slightly underperformed our expectations in the quarter. Tinder direct revenue was flat year-over-year at $441 million, up 4% FX-neutral. Tinder payers were relatively flat year-over-year in Q1 at $10.7 million and RPP was also relatively flat year-over-year at $13.80. Tinder saw year-over-year subscription revenue growth, while à la carte revenue declined year-over-year impacted by the macro environment. Tinder released weekly subscriptions and undertook pricing optimizations in several markets, including the U.S. towards the end of the quarter, limiting their revenue impact on Q1. User growth in the quarter was slightly below our expectations. However, in April, we've started to see much improved Tinder performance as the top of the funnel has strengthened somewhat, and the weekly subscription and pricing optimizations have begun to deliver tangible revenue contribution. Tinder plans to test weekly subscriptions and pricing optimizations in additional markets this quarter. Tinder introduced its marketing campaign in Q1 and it's achieving its objectives of improving brand sentiment, especially among younger users, particularly women. As a result of that campaign, Tinder's market position in terms of downloads has improved in several key markets, most notably the U.S. and the UK. Our Hinge brand continues to perform very strongly. Hinge grew direct revenue 27%, 30% FX-neutral year-over-year, slightly ahead of our expectations as performance in core English speaking markets continued to be outstanding. Hinge payers were up 15% and totaled over 1 million in the quarter, while RPP of over $25 was up over 10% year-over-year. The new subscription tiers at Hinge continue to contribute as well with the 20% take rate of the more premium tier HingeX consistent with our expectations. And as we detailed in the letter, Hinge's European expansion continues to have major traction. Our MG Asia business saw year-over-year direct revenue declined 13% in Q1, though down only 3% FX-neutral. At Hyperconnect, Azar grew direct revenue 4% year-over-year, though much stronger on an FX-neutral basis, but Hakuna and Pairs saw year-over-year declines. At Evergreen & Emerging, direct revenue declined 8% year-over-year, 6% FX-neutral as we continue to moderate marketing spend at the Evergreen Brands. The Emerging Brands, including Chispa, BLK, and The League collectively grew direct revenue in excess of 50% year-over-year. Both MG Asia and E&E performance was consistent with our expectations. Indirect revenue was $13 million in Q1, down 14% year-over-year as marketers globally continued to tighten advertising budgets and ad prices declined. Operating income was $198 million in Q1, a 5% year-over-year decrease for a margin of 25%. Q1 adjusted operating income or AOI was $263 million, down 4% year-over-year, representing a margin of 33%. Q1 AOI and margins were above our prior expectations, despite the total revenue shortfall versus our expectations as we continue to focus on costs, reducing marketing spend further and rationalizing some additional overhead costs as well. We incurred approximately $4 million of severance and similar costs in Q1. Overall expenses, including SBC expense were essentially flat year-over-year in Q1. Cost of revenue, including SBC expense, grew 2% year-over-year and represented 30% of total revenue flat year-over-year. Live streamer fees declined, but App Store fees increased year-over-year, primarily due to the $8 million escrow payment to Google, the last of which will be due in Q2. Selling and marketing spend, including SBC expense, decreased $15 million or 10% year-over-year. The fourth consecutive quarter, where we've seen a year-over-year reduction as we continue to reduce marketing spend at our Evergreen Brands and to exercise ROI discipline overall. We increased sales and marketing spend meaningfully year-over-year at Hinge and modestly at Tinder, but it was down year-over-year at virtually all other brands. Selling and marketing spend was down 2 points year-over-year as a percentage of total revenue to 17%. Product development costs, including SBC expense, grew 25% year-over-year and were 12% of total revenue, primarily reflecting the impact of engineering hiring at Tinder in late 2021, early 2022 and at Hinge. At this point, Hinge is the only major business within our portfolio where hiring remains particularly active. Interest expenses increased 13% year-over-year in Q1, primarily due to the floating rate structure of our term loan, but interest income also increased very meaningfully given higher rates we are earning on our cash. Our gross leverage was 3.5x trailing AOI and net leverage was 3x at the end of Q1. Our target remains for net leverage to be below 3x. We ended the quarter with $578 million of cash, cash equivalence, and short-term investments on hand. We repurchased 2.6 million of our common shares in the quarter for $113 million. At the end of Q1, we had only 2.7 million shares remaining under our existing buyback authorization. Our Board of Directors has authorized a new $1 billion buyback to replace the existing plan, which we expect to deploy over the next two to three years. As we discussed in the shareholder letter, we expect to generate approximately $800 million of free cash flow this year with further growth over the coming years. Going forward, we intend to return at least 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders. In consultation with our Board of Directors, we will determine the right timing and tools to use for return of capital. Our capital allocation priorities are one, to invest organically in our business; two, to strengthen our balance sheet; and three, to make compelling acquisitions. We may opt to return even more capital to shareholders if we do not identify sufficient compelling investment or acquisition opportunities. For Q2 2023, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $805 million to $815 million, up 1% to 3% year-over-year. We expect FX to be slightly more than a 1 point year-over-year headwind. At Tinder, we expect direct revenue to be up low-single digits year-over-year, also with a little more than a 1 point year-over-year FX headwind. On a sequential basis, we expect Tinder direct revenue to increase in the low-to-mid single-digit percentage range. This strong sequential growth demonstrates that momentum is building and gives us confidence in achieving the strong exit rates we anticipate in Q4. We expect Tinder Q2 payers to decline year-over-year and sequentially. There are a number of initiatives in flight globally, including the introduction of weekly packages and the implementation of price changes, which are having various positive and negative impacts on payers and are being rolled out at various times in various markets. It is important to understand that Tinder in the U.S. elected to implement one of the higher price levels it tested, which we believe will maximize direct revenue, but will correspondingly have a large negative impact on conversion and payers. We expect that Tinder sequential payer additions will be much stronger by the end of the year once these changes are implemented. We expect Hinge to deliver a meaningfully accelerating Q2 year-over-year direct revenue growth, driven by continued strong performance in Hinge's English speaking markets and the effects of the new pricing tiers and continued European expansion. We expect MG Asia to decline modestly year-over-year in Q2 and be essentially flat year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis. We expect our Evergreen & Emerging Brands direct revenue to decline year-over-year at similar rates as was the case in Q1 with similar growth rates at each of the Evergreen & Emerging groups of brands as was the case in Q1 as well. We expect Q2 indirect revenue to be closer to flat year-over-year as we broaden the opportunities we offer for advertising in our products. We expect AOI of $275 million to $280 million in Q2, representing margin of approximately 34% at the midpoints of the ranges. We expect overall marketing spend to increase year-over-year in Q2, specifically at Tinder and Hinge with reductions in almost every other brand in the portfolio. We do expect to allocate some marketing dollars to our newly incubated app to support its introduction this summer. We expect IAP fees to continue to be a year-over-year headwind in Q2, though we expect to stop placing funds into the Google escrow after July per the terms we have agreed to. We expect to continue to be very cautious on spending in all other spending categories within our control. We anticipate incurring approximately $4 million of severance and similar costs in Q2. Given the emerging success of the recent initiatives at Tinder and the momentum we expect the business to continue to build over the coming quarters, we have confidence that in Q4, Tinder year-over-year direct revenue growth will reach double digits, as will the company's overall year-over-year total revenue growth. We admittedly have had a modestly weaker Q1 and anticipate a slightly weaker Q2 than we expected when we provided our full-year outlook back in November of last year. As such, there is an increasing likelihood that we will be closer to the lower end of our total revenue growth outlook for the full-year. That said, marketing and product momentum is improving at Tinder and we've had strong performance in April, so we are eager to see how all the initiatives continue to progress. We also remain confident that Hinge's momentum will lead it to deliver approximately $400 million of direct revenue in 2023. In terms of full-year 2023 AOI margin, we continue to target flat or better than the 35% we achieved last year. We continue to expect improving year-over-year margins as the benefits of our cost savings initiatives take hold and Tinder topline growth reaccelerates. There continues to be a lot of developments in both legal systems and legislatures around the world regarding App Store policies, and we remain optimistic that further change is coming, especially as a result of the Digital Markets Act in the EU early next year. The most recent news was the Epic Games versus Apple Appeal in the 9th Circuit. As a result of that decision, we are increasingly hopeful that we will be able to promote less expensive payment methods with improved customer service to our users in the not too distant future. When we provided our full-year outlook last November, I said that we expected to take a little time in the first half of 2023 to build momentum, but are confident that improved product momentum and our financial discipline positioned us for much stronger growth and profitability in the back half of the year as well as long-term. That view has not changed. We would have preferred to see a little more momentum at the outset of 2023, but we strongly believe the changes we've made are working, momentum is gradually building, and we are positioned for much better financial performance by the end of this year, which should provide momentum into next year as well. Additionally, we believe that the combination of our updated capital allocation approach and our path to stronger growth can create a very compelling level of return for our shareholders. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from James Heaney with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
James Heaney:
Thanks for taking the question. Just for Gary, can you talk specifically about the encouraging signs that you're seeing at Tinder in April? Is that primarily around the success you're seeing on price increases? Or are there other specific optimizations that are driving the uplift? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, James for the question. Good morning. We've actually seen improvement in several Tinder KPIs here in April. And really, what I'm referring to is new user sign-ups as well as reactivations of old users. And we've seen improvement because of the marketing campaign and other initiatives that Tinder has undertaken. In terms of the revenue lift, the new weekly subscriptions and price optimizations didn't rollout to any significant extent until April. And now they're in five major countries, which is leading to incremental revenue. So we're seeing strength both in terms of top of the funnel and the revenue initiatives really take hold. We're going to test these price optimizations in several geographies in Q2. And as we rollout the weekly subscription packages in many more markets, that's going to add incremental revenue. One month isn't enough to really make a call, but we feel optimistic given we're seeing the initiatives have success with the top of the funnel and on the revenue side. And so as a result of that, our outlook contemplates sequential revenue improvement in Q2 compared to Q1. And that's showing that what BK and the team are doing at Tinder really is leading to results, and that's giving us much improved optimism.
James Heaney:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citi. Please go ahead.
Ygal Arounian:
Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Just continue on Tinder on the product road map. And I want to focus on the product side, not the monetization here. And can you talk about what are the most important products on the road map? Maybe take some time to hit on the women's experience more specifically as well. How much lift is there on that to get on par with the competing dating apps? And thinking about some of the commentary in the letter pointing to users that are trying to drive other uses of the third-party apps and how that's been impacting the experience on Tinder. Thanks.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks for the question, Ygal. Gary mentioned our recent momentum that we've seen over the last month, and that's been really exciting for us. But what I wanted to jump in a little bit about is like our journey because we had a bit of a start, stop and then start again. Jumping in, I actually thought we could have moved a lot faster, but we're really diligent around setting up a stable and solid culture with the team. And what I wanted to do was really get the team focused and reduce some of the distractions. In doing that, we had to galvanize the organization around a clear road map. And this can be challenging to do with a lot of creative and technologists that have a lot of great swirling ideas. But for us to do that, our CPO came up with this concept around three Rs
Ygal Arounian:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Hey. Thanks for taking the question. So can you talk about the Tinder price testing in a bit more detail on why you feel confident that this is the right move strategically? I completely understand about the weekly, but the idea of just like the price increase at the kind of the longer-term plans, more premium. And then you used the word additional color on what significantly meant. And then just secondly, more for housekeeping, but how are you thinking about specifically about second half Tinder net adds? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me jump in and take that, Jason. I know this is getting a lot of attention. And so I want to try to explain kind of the philosophy behind what's going on at Tinder because it's not just a case of random price testing here and there. Really what Tinder has done is embarked on a comprehensive strategy around pricing and optimizing their business, which is something that really should be happening on a regular basis, but hadn't been happening until a couple of quarters ago, and really now they've thoughtfully gone through pricing strategy. And we talked a little bit about this in previous quarters, where we think through discounts and offers and things like that, that have existed to try to determine whether those make sense from a long-term value perspective. And we've looked at some of those programs and have eliminated them because we didn't think they made sense from a long-term value perspective. So you saw some impact on payers going back to last year, and that continued in the first quarter as Tinder continued to rationalize and optimize. So that was kind of the first piece of it that I want to make sure people understand. And as I said, it's part of a much more comprehensive and well thought through strategy that Tinder is actually very good, and the company generally is very good at thinking through. And so now here in the first quarter, at the very end of the first quarter, we've looked at pricing in all the different geographies where Tinder operates. And we believe that the prices that Tinder offers are well below the competitors, well below market. And so there's room to increase price in certain spots. And we've tested variance to see what will be revenue maximizing. Because what I've talked about many times is we're not focused on a specific KPI, whether it's payers or RPP and driving those, we want to maximize overall revenue at Tinder. And so we tested various levels in the U.S. in Q1. We've settled on a level to rollout, and that's going to have effect on Q2 payers overall as we roll that through the system. And now we've expanded those price tests into four additional geographies
Operator:
Our next question comes from Dan Salmon with New Street Research. Please go ahead.
Bernard Kim:
Dan, are you there? We can't hear you.
Daniel Salmon:
There you go. Sorry about that. Can you hear me now?
Bernard Kim:
We can.
Daniel Salmon:
Okay. Good stuff. So I just wanted to ask a little bit more about Tinder's brand campaign. It sounds like you're happy with the early returns on it. Maybe can you talk a little bit more about where it goes from here? You mentioned expanding it into new markets, but is regular marketing support of this nature something you see as an ongoing thing? The brand needs to be supported regularly. Happy with the creative. Is there – are there any iterations coming along those lines? And maybe if I can just slip in one more to BK or Gary. Obviously, the Board made a fairly significant change in making a commitment to return 50% of free cash flow every year. And obviously, buybacks are going to be a big part of that. Maybe just one quick one, are you considering a dividend?
Bernard Kim:
Great. Thanks so much, Dan, for the question. I'll handle the first part, and Gary can handle the second part of the question. First, I want to thank you for asking that question around the marketing campaign, because we have a fantastic team that has been working really hard to get this campaign out in the marketplace. One of the observations that I made upon joining Tinder and leading that organization is that historically, we've relied too much on virality of the app to spread in the marketplace. We have not invested enough in that brand narrative. And that narrative has kind of taken its own story. And that's why this team that we put in place went in with a tremendous amount of passion and energy and speed. And the idea that it all starts with a swipe really tells the story around the multiple different possibilities that can come from jumping into Tinder first time or jumping in the second time and the great experiences that come from that. Now this is a multi-staged approach, and the goal of the campaign initially is to drive brand perception. So the good news around that is we're actually starting to see really strong early momentum, specifically with the market that we're targeting, women ages 18 to 24. And we've seen increases of over three points in both brand consideration as well as intent. That's great progress, just knowing that we're a couple months in and we're in major markets here in the United States and in the U.K. I personally see it all over Los Angeles, especially in my commute from Manhattan Beach over to the Tinder headquarters. Now as Gary has said, we started to see some really strong improvement in top of funnel. So that's great to see as well. But this is the first stage. So what we're starting off is building that positive brand platform, which we then can build upon as our marketing teams are working super closely with our product team. And then down the road, I'm really excited about those next stages of the campaign, which can describe more of our product features and what that means for the overall community in Tinder. We expect that the long-term effects of these campaigns will be to improve, a brand perception and then accelerate downloads and registrations. Gary, do you want to take the second part?
Gary Swidler:
Sure. On capital allocation, as we talk about in the letter, the company generates a significant amount of cash flow, and we don't want to just build cash on the balance sheet for the sake of building cash on the balance sheet. We want to return it to shareholders. And so it's our responsibility to look with our Board of Directors at all of the tools that are available to return capital to shareholders, which really includes dividends and buybacks. And so we're not going to rule anything out. The Board authorized a new large share buyback, and that's – our plan is to implement that. But the world has evolved, valuations have evolved. We're not happy with where our stock price is. And to the extent that dividend makes sense at some point in the future, we're not afraid to consider that. So we'll look at all the tools. We constantly evaluate them. And we'll see kind of what we think makes the most sense as a way to return the capital to shareholders. So that's our thinking on capital allocation.
Daniel Salmon:
Okay. Very helpful. Thank you both.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay. Thank you very much for taking my question. Could you please talk about Hinge? You're guiding to $400 million in annual revenues. You're reiterating your guide. How should we think about Hinge's sustainable growth and margin profile as an asset? And what gives you confidence that Hinge and Tinder both can grow concurrently? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me take that one. Thanks, Shweta. What I would say, first of all, on Hinge, obviously, we're very pleased with the traction that the brand has. And by that, I mean a couple of things. First of all, its resonance, its ability to resonate in markets outside of core English-speaking markets, that's something that was not assured. And when we go into a market like France, which is different than a market like Germany culturally, and the fact that the brand resonates and gets organic traction in both markets, that's really encouraging and tells you that the brand really has the ability to expand around the world. And the fact that the brand has significant organic traction in a market like India, which is obviously very different than France or Germany or any other European market, without any marketing or other efforts by Hinge in that market, that's a very encouraging sign for global expansion as well. So that's the first point. And we really do believe that the product experience at Hinge as well as their brand story around design to be [indiscernible] are both really resonating with users, and that's really a critical fact. The other thing, I would point out is that Hinge is very early in its monetization journey. It's got a lot of runway on monetization. It's got a lot of runway globally on user growth. So it still has a lot to do and a lot of runway, and we're focused on capturing that and it's just really a matter of time for all that to happen. So when you factor that all together in terms of kind of what do we think that means from a numbers perspective, we think that Hinge can maintain growth rates around what it's going to do this year on a percentage basis and drive to be a $1 billion-plus revenue business over the next few years, if you look at, let's say, a four, five year plan. And I think it can do that by making the right levels of investments over the next few years in international expansion, just as we're doing in Europe this year. And so I think that, that will put some pressure on margins at Hinge over the next couple of years as the growth continues to be very strong. And then gradually, the business will get to a level of margin that's more consistent with the overall company level of margins. And so we're looking forward to seeing that kind of financial performance out of Hinge. We took a lot of effort in the shareholder letter to talk about how we think there's ample opportunity for both Tinder and Hinge to grow at the same time. And that we think the cannibalistic effects of Tinder on Hinge – sorry, of Hinge on Tinder are not as much as people may think. So I'm not going to reiterate all that there. But I will just emphasize something that we said in the letter, which is important to understand, which is that the product experience at Tinder and Hinge are different and the brand ethos of Tinder and Hinge are different. And consumers understand that, and some consumers prefer one to the other, but many, especially young users, use both because they use them for different purposes. And they like certain aspects of one and certain aspects of the other. And so all of that tells us that we can grow Hinge and Tinder simultaneously, and that the overall impact of having both of those brands in a given market is accretive to Match Group's overall growth, much like we're seeing in the French market with some of the data that we've provided in the shareholder letter. So hopefully, that gives you some color to your questions.
Shweta Khajuria:
Yes, that's helpful. Thanks, Gary.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great. Thanks. I thought there was interesting color in the shareholder letter on Tinder's paying user opportunity in North America, in Europe in the 18 to 34 demo. Given Tinder's recent paying user growth challenges, what do you see as kind of key drivers of getting both the lapsed and/or never-been users to the platform? And as a follow-up, it feels like what you laid out implies there's ample runway over time for further Tinder payer paying user growth? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Thanks, John. So it's important to understand that reactivating lapsed users at Tinder has always been one of its key components of growth and something that they've actually been very good at historically. And as you point out, and we said in the letter, there's a very large pool of lapsed users for Tinder to go ahead and reactivate. But what we've seen in the last few quarters is that the Tinder product experience has not met some users' expectations. Tinder's ability to reactivate those lapsed users has declined as well. So if you put it kind of simply, Tinder hasn't given lapsed users enough reason to come back to the product. And so as the team, led by BK, improves the product experience, we're optimistic that Tinder's success rate in reactivating these lapsed users will also increase. And we can really say the same thing for attracting new users as well, is that as the product experience and the brand narrative improve, Tinder should do a better job of attracting new users. Now obviously, it's much easier to re-attract a lapsed user who's used the product before than someone knew who's never tried it. But Tinder has to succeed on both fronts, attracting lapsed users and new users to achieve the level of growth in terms of overall user growth that we think Tinder needs to achieve. So it needs to push on both fronts and accomplish that. But as you said, and the letter again makes clear, there's a big pool of lapsed users in the developed markets, Europe, North America, for Tinder to go and reactivate. And there's a really big pool of never-tried users in other geographies in APAC and the rest of the world that have never tried Tinder. So there's ample runway for growth, both in terms of reactivating the lapsed users and also attracting first-time users that Tinder can go. And it's really just a question of product and brand execution to really achieve the level of user growth that we would like to see at Tinder.
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Lauren Schenk:
Great. Thanks. Maybe just one on Hinge. As we think about international expansion, I think you're now in all the major markets in Europe, how are you thinking about second half expansion? Any thoughts or timing around when the app might enter Asia, understanding those markets are still a little bit difficult right now? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Lauren, for the question. I'm really excited about Hinge's performance. Like Gary mentioned, we're on track to hit $400 million this year, and that's incredible from where we started with Hinge joining the family just five years ago. The progress that Hinge have made so far has been fantastic. But Hinge international expansion continues to be one of my top priorities for this year. When we go into these markets, we don't just localize the apps, but we actually culturalize these apps and make the experience what makes sense for daters in each of these individual markets. That also extends across our marketing message. So to use a European term, we do a bespoke approach of going to market, but also entrenching ourselves in these markets as well. So our plan this year is to establish Hinge across Europe as the intentioned dating app. It's really important for us that we continue on this steady path throughout the year. We are in most markets today but we have a lot more work to do, and that's going to unveil itself over the next year. We're actually going to consider new markets outside of Europe in 2024, but we're focused on Europe in 2023. Thanks for the question, Lauren.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Alexandra Steiger with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Alexandra Steiger:
Thank you for taking my questions. So in the context of your Q2 revenue guide, which anticipates low single-digit growth, can you give us a bit more color on how we should think about the building blocks of your updated 2023 revenue guide? What are the different assumptions that went into the guide initially? And how did these evolve since the last update? And then lastly, what are some potential areas of upside or downside when thinking through 2023 revenue growth? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. I'll take that one. So as we talked about in the letter, we're confident that we're going to get to Q4 Tinder direct revenue growth and total company revenue growth rates year-over-year in the double digits. It's still a little early to pinpoint exactly what level in there because we're only at the beginning of May. There's a lot of initiatives in flight, a lot of momentum building in the business. So we really need to see a little bit more how things are going to play out. But obviously, April has been encouraging, as I talked about. And so we feel good about the potential for exit rates in Q4. And so if you look at kind of what we achieved in Q1, you look at what our outlook is for Q2 and then what we think is going to happen by Q4 and you extrapolate Q3 to get there, you end up with a growth rate overall of around five or so percent, sort of in that neighborhood. The biggest swing factor, which I'm sure is apparent to you and to others as well, is really what's going to happen in terms of the Tinder trajectory. The marketing campaign, the momentum at the top of the funnel as well as all the revenue initiatives that we have in place are really going to determine where exactly we land for the full-year growth rate and certainly, the Q4 exit rate. So that's really the big swing factor. And we've given, I think, a lot of color on what we're seeing and what gives us confidence in where we're going. The other thing that we're monitoring is the macro environment, which I mentioned is having impact on à la carte at Tinder, which is a reasonably significant component of its revenue. And right now we're not seeing any big movement one way or the other in terms of our expectations on what's actually happening at à la carte. So our trajectory for the year assumes that à la carte kind of continues the way it's been with not modest major swings up or down. That is a potential swing factor or a change in assumption. But right now, we don't see any evidence that our assumptions around à la carte are inappropriate. And so that's all, I think, properly baked into our outlook at this point. So those are the things that we're watching as the year progresses.
Alexandra Steiger:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Thanks for the question. Just pivoting to costs, where you obviously reiterated the guide for AOI margins to be at least flat in 2023. So if we look beyond App store fee changes, what are the major swing factors that could drive upside or downside there? Is there room to tighten up the cost structure any further? And how should we be thinking about the trade-off between revenue growth and expense moderation at the legacy brands? What's sort of baked into your outlook there? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. So in terms of margins, first of all, we're committed to maintaining flat or better margins for the year. And so that is one of our guiding principles around this. I think the biggest swing factor for the year is what I just talked about with Alexandra's question, which is really around Tinder's trajectory. Tinder is a very high-margin business. And the more growth we get out of Tinder, the more higher margin we get out of Tinder, the more that's going to help improve the overall company margin. So that's the biggest swing factor. So obviously, driving growth at Tinder is job one. In terms of your question around cost savings, we are being very disciplined around cost, very thoughtful on the marketing side, on expenses generally. There's always more you can do, but our first goal is to drive revenue growth. And so we want to be thoughtful about the trade-offs generally between cost savings and revenue growth, and we're going to protect the ability to continue to grow revenue. Because as I said before, that really is job one within the confines of maintaining flat or better margins for the company for the full-year. In terms of the trade-offs we're making at the Evergreen Brands, that is obviously a source of reducing marketing spend there to spend more at marketing at Tinder and Hinge. And as we see momentum in those businesses, it makes us want to spend more into those marketing efforts. And so we're trying to calibrate that, which is our job in terms of managing a portfolio. Right now, I feel like our outlook for the year contemplates a sufficient level of marketing spend at the Evergreen Brands to maintain declines in those brands that are manageable and allow us to invest at the levels we feel we need to invest in at both Hinge, Tinder as well as some new initiatives like The League and the new app that we're talking about rolling out in the summer. So I think all of that is appropriately incorporated into our outlook for the year and leaves us with the ability to generate flat or better margins, as we've been saying.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Justin Patterson:
Great. Thank you very much. Perhaps a multipart big-picture question. BK, you're not alone in saying AI is a meaningful platform shift like mobile. Match does have a solid history of navigating platform shifts, albeit with new brands, often emerging and legacy brands slowing. Can you tease out how you think this can transform the dating experience and how it changes the opportunity set through the existing brands and some new ones you're incubating? Is this something you can build organically or acquire your way into? And then for Gary, how does AI change your expense profile over time? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Great, Justin. I'll take the first part of that question. Look, I think the last couple of months had been super inspiring for me personally as well as our teams. We're aligned with our leadership team and our management team around AI, thinking that AI could be transformative to the total category. The way that I guess I think about it is like is the dater experience and improving that dater experience by utilizing AI. Maybe we can like step through an experience of some of our daters are in our apps. And then they sometimes need help getting unstuck or thinking about, "How do I open up a conversation?" And usually, they'll phone a friend. And sometimes, that friend is not available. Imagine that AI can instantaneously help instead, maybe helping and nudging people to pick great date ideas, opening up a conversation, how to like continue that conversation, in some cases, closing out a conversation and not ghosting someone in our apps. It's really still very early, but the team is focusing on how this can transform dating. But one thing that I do want to clarify is that I do not believe that AI can replace IRL dating. True human connections are core to our business, and we think that we can utilize AI to help people get together in the real world. We have a great team, including our new CTO, working on this, and we're embracing really new exciting ideas. We're really excited to present more updates to you all in the upcoming quarters. And we have to make some decisions around either we build, we buy or we partner, but it's still too early to say.
Gary Swidler:
Yes. And just picking up on that in terms of expenses, it is kind of early to say what is going to happen from AI in terms of expenses, just because we don't know exactly what kind of efforts are going to be needed. I would point out a couple of things. Obviously, one, we're mindful that some of these areas of AI and the folks needed to undertake those efforts can be very expensive. And so we want to do this in a smart way. Certainly, we'll try to leverage outside vendors, third parties wherever we can. And I'm sure more and more of those are going to crop up. So we're not planning to build a massive team focused on these efforts and really balloon expenses as a result of that. I will also tell you that we have significant capabilities in this area already at Tinder as well as at Hyperconnect, so that we can leverage some of those capabilities. And certainly a place like Hyperconnect, where in Korea, these types of engineers are much more readily available and much less costly, gives us a good platform to expand those efforts. And so we're very mindful of trying to keep the expenses under control as we build out the AI efforts, and we'll leverage either outside parties or the capabilities we already have like the Hyperconnect business. We probably have time for one or two more questions. Sorry, go ahead operator.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Brad Erickson with RBC. Please go ahead.
Brad Erickson:
Yes. Thanks. Just a couple of follow-ups here. I think historically, the company had looked at some of these features geared for women and had largely, I guess, not really decided to pursue them. So I guess just what's changed? Maybe speak to any testing data from these early efforts to kind of reinforce the thesis there. And how do you think about payer penetration on that, those products relative to Tinder overall? And then I might have missed it from earlier, but just quickly on the free cash flow guide. I think that was a little bigger step down versus the revenue or EBITDA. So maybe just anything to call out there that's driving that? Any comments on sort of general free cash conversion relative to EBITDA going forward? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Why don't I take that, and I'll try to do relatively quickly. Look, on the women's experience, I think maybe there's a little confusion around two things. Women's experience on dating apps has always been front and center and very important. It's important to attract and retain women, and that obviously helps attract and retain men. And so we've always been very focused on that aspect of the experience. That's a little different than women making the first move and things like that. What we're talking about really is the fundamental experience of women on the dating apps. Are they finding the people that they want to find? Are they treated respectfully? Those are the things that are really critical to women enjoying their experience on the app. And that's really what we're focused on and talking about. So it's not a payers' thing. It's not a revenue thing in particular. That's not to say there won't be some levels of revenue associated with improving the women's experience. But we're talking about making the experience at Tinder, in particular, really something that women enjoy and come back for and seek out, and that's what we're trying to evolve. And that's going to be a large body of work over multiple quarters. It's not just one feature here or there. In terms of your question on free cash flow, we are becoming more and more of a cash taxpayer. So that might be something that people have underestimated. But I do think we're going to generate approximately $800 million this year, and I do think that number will increase over time. So there's a significant amount of free cash flow generation, which factors into our capital allocation policy.
Brad Erickson:
Got it. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Gary, you touched on the app stores a bit in your prepared remarks, but hoping you could expand on your thoughts around some of the developments like the Epic and Apple's appeals early Google concessions in the UK, et cetera? And just what you think the potential impact could be to Match? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
It's an important question, Cory, and they left you like one minute for me to answer it, but I'll do the best that I can. So look, there's been a lot of positive developments in terms of App Store over the last six months in a lot of different jurisdictions. There's stuff going on in the Court systems in different places. There's stuff going on in the legislative process, and there's a lot of developments. We'll be the first to admit that the progress in these areas are a lot slower than any of us would like. The wheels of justice turn slowly as an expression for a reason. But ultimately, we think that we're going to get to a point where there's going to be meaningful changes to the App Store ecosystem to make them more fair and to benefit consumers. So you mentioned Epic Apple. There's also been things going on in the UK, CMA decision as well as other things in various markets that we think make it likely that developers will, at a minimum, be able to offer alternative payment systems to customers, which we think will result in improved conversion and also really enhance customer satisfaction. So we're looking forward to that. In the EU and in some other jurisdictions like India, we think there's going to be changes that are going to result in app store fee changes as well, particularly as a result of the DMA in Europe or in the EU in 2024. So that's a big one to monitor, which I think people generally are aware of. I don't know specifically if this Epic Apple case is going to result in App Store fee relief, but it's very possible. It remains to be seen if that's going to lead ultimately to App Store fee relief. And then when you sort of factor all this in with all these different changes and things going on in all these different jurisdictions, I think what it means is the App Stores have to ask themselves a question, which is are they going to respond to these changes in a piecemeal basis and have different policies and fee structures and approaches in different markets? Or are they going to have one global policy that addresses all of these really significant and valid concerns and change App Store policies to reflect a more fair App Store ecosystem for consumers? And so that's what remains to be seen. I think that probably plays out over the next 12 months, and so we need to keep watching it. But I know there's a lot of moving pieces on that. I know you're trying to follow it closely. And so I really do appreciate your efforts in that regard. And we'll continue to update on it. Take one more quick one.
Operator:
The last question will comes from [Thomas Delaney] with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst:
Yes. Thanks for taking my question. I just have one quickly. Is it possible to get a little bit more color on the new app that you guys are launching this summer?
Bernard Kim:
I can take that question. We have a big announcement planned for later this month, and we're really looking forward to telling everyone about it then. I'm personally really excited about it. So that's all that I can say on that one. But to end and close this out, I want to thank everyone for joining our call and really appreciate everyone's time.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to Match Group Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Tanny Shelburne:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Tanny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. As we look back on 2022 and our Q4 results, it's clear that the year was challenging and our performance fell short of our expectations. But this is an organization that is not okay with missing our goals. And while the business continues to exhibit strong fundamentals and financial discipline, we have taken decisive steps, including restructuring for increased accountability and collaboration and recruiting key talent to set us up for long-term growth and maximize profitability. As I've previously shared during my first few months on the job, I went on an intense listening tour across Match Group. I've spoken to leaders and employees from all layers across the organization as well as users across our portfolio to identify opportunities and pain points. One thing that was very obvious is that this organization welcomes change and embraces the cultural shift that is required to drive shareholder value, while serving our mission to create real and meaningful connections every day. The changes we made at Tinder have allowed it to quickly regain footing and prioritize product momentum. The results are evident in Tinder's 2023 roadmap and improved execution. No other brand in the category has the virality, the reach and the scale that Tinder has. While it might take a few quarters, I'm confident by shoring up the talent there and judiciously investing in the team and the brand that we're going to accelerate Tinder's momentum and get us back to the financial performance that we all expect. I remain the Interim CEO of Tinder and key senior leaders continue to report directly to me. I'm encouraged by the progress that Tinder has made both culturally and in terms of execution. In fact, in the second half of the year, Tinder saw a significant increase in the number of product features it delivered compared to the first half of 2022. I'm also very excited for the new marketing campaign which launches later in Q1. This will allow us to begin shifting and establishing Tinder's brand story. After Tinder, we looked at the rest of the organization. From every conversation I had with our brand leaders, it became evident that Match Group had historically operated in a very siloed way. I'm a big believer that by increasing transparency across the organization, you increase accountability, while at the same time adding a healthy dose of friendly competition to the company's culture. That's why we announced last week that we revamped our leadership structure to create a more streamlined organization. With a focus on setting up the right team for the future, we restructured the management team around leaders with extensive knowledge and experience supplemented with new talent that brings a renewed focus on innovation and growth. Hinge remains a standout in our portfolio, guided by Justin McLeod's founder-led mentality and mission-focused vision for the brand. Hinge continued its highly successful international expansion efforts becoming one of the top 3 most downloaded dating apps across English speaking DACH and Nordic countries in December. It will also launch its new premium subscription tier HingeX to all users by the end of February. I've been impressed with Hinge's ability to create a differentiated, powerful dating app that resonates with so many singles across generations, and now expand their monetization by offering two subscription tiers that give users more control over how they date. Hinge is still very early in its international expansion and monetization efforts, but I believe there is a lot of upside as we continue to invest in the brand. I'm excited about our opportunities within Asia and the strong focus we have now in the region. We needed a product focused leader on the ground in the market, who knows how to engage and inspire teams. So I promoted Malgosia Green from Plenty of Fish to a newly created role as CEO of Match Group Asia. Malgosia will be moving to Asia to work directly with Pairs and Hyperconnect to recapture growth and enhance profitability, as well as drive the go-to-market strategies for Hinge and Tinder across the region. Finally, Evergreen & Emerging Brands which consist of Match, Meetic, Plenty of Fish, OkCupid and our emerging brands like BLK, Chispa, and The League will be managed together for the first time. Hesam Hosseini will be taking on a newly created role as CEO of Evergreen & Emerging Brands. Formerly, the CEO of Match and Affinity brands, Hesam brings an unmatched level of experience to this combined global team. Combining our evergreen brands under a shared direction will enable us to streamline operations and reduce duplicative work. It will also allow us to leverage our institutional knowledge to drive growth with attractive margins across our emerging brands, where we see significant untapped potential. Lastly, we're excited to welcome Will Wu as our new CTO, who will work directly with all our brands to build upon Match Group's history of transformative innovation by continuing to incubate, launch and grow entirely new experiences for our users. Will and I have known each other for a long time, and he has had a highly influential impact on social media products, as we know them today. He has been able to build some of the most engaging user experiences for Millennials and Gen Z. And his passion and dedication will be a great fit for the culture at Match Group. I know the team here is going to welcome his expertise, creativity, work ethic and humility. And finally, through all of this, I would be remiss if I didn't take a moment to thank Gary. He has been instrumental in not only my onboarding, but has helped to lead with strength and clarity even amid a very challenging operating backdrop. As such, I'm pleased to appoint Gary as President and CFO of Match Group, a clear demonstration in the trust I have in him and the value we put in his ability to drive our shared vision forward. As we begin a new year, I'm energized and ready to take on this next chapter in Match Group's history. We are navigating the current macroeconomic challenges, and we have a strong team and clear vision to execute upon. I look forward to sharing more on our efforts in future calls. With that, I'll hand the call over to Gary.
Gary Swidler :
Thanks, BK. I feel great about my role and the other org changes we've made and think the hiring of Will Wu will be terrific. I'm very much looking forward to working with him and to continuing to see the company build its momentum. Now let me get into the numbers. As BK said, while not at the standards we hold ourselves to, our Q4 2022 total revenue was in line, and our adjusted operating income exceeded the expectations that we set forth in our last earnings call. Total revenue was $786 million, down 2% year-over-year. FX was a notable headwind once again. Our total revenue would have been $846 million, up 5% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis. The FX headwind was less than we expected when we provided our outlook on our November earnings call, but that was offset by slightly more business weakness than we had forecasted primarily in Europe. Our direct revenue was down 2% year-over-year. It grew 2% year-over-year in the Americas with growth at Tinder, Hinge, BLK and Chispa but declines at the Evergreen Brands, which include Match, Plenty of Fish and OkCupid. Direct revenue declined 4% year-over-year in Europe but was up 8% on an FX-neutral basis driven by Tinder and Hinge with weakness at Meetic. Direct revenue declined 9% year-over-year in APAC and Other, but was up 9% on an FX-neutral basis driven by Tinder. Total payers were 16.1 million, a decrease of 1% year-over-year. Payers were down 2% year-over-year in the Americas, down 4% in Europe and up 6% in APAC and Other. Tinder payers globally were up 3% year-over-year, while All Other Brands were down 8% in aggregate. Q4 RPP was down 1% year-over-year at $16. RPP was up 4% in the Americas driven primarily by higher average prices paid for subscriptions at Tinder and Hinge. RPP was up 1% year-over-year in Europe, where contributions from Tinder and Hinge were offset by the strength of the U.S. dollar compared to the euro and the British pound. RPP was down 14% year-over-year in APAC and Other due to the strength of the dollar relative to the yen and the Turkish lira. On an FX-neutral basis, Q4 RPP was up 7% year-over-year company-wide, up 14% in Europe and up 3% in APAC and Other. Tinder overall performed in line with our expectations in the quarter, delivering direct revenue of $444 million, flat year-over-year, up 8% on an FX-neutral basis. Tinder added just under 300,000 payers to just over 10.8 million. Tinder saw a 3% RPP decline year-over-year in the quarter, which again highlights the impact of FX. Tinder RPP was up 5% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis. All Other Brands' direct revenue was down 5% year-over-year in Q4 driven by an 8% payer decline, partially offset by 3% RPP growth. Hinge, BLK and Chispa continue to drive growth with Hinge up nearly 30% year-over-year. Our Evergreen & Emerging Brands declined 9% year-over-year in terms of direct revenue, and our Asian brands saw direct revenue declined 16% year-over-year, in large part due to FX. We saw stability in Pairs and Hyperconnect direct revenue on a local currency basis, but we have yet to see a rebound in the Japanese market despite improvement in the COVID situation there. Indirect revenue was $15 million in the quarter, down 18% year-over-year, but similar in dollar terms to the other quarters of 2022. Q4 2021 was particularly strong for indirect revenue. Operating income was $107 million in Q4, a 54% year-over-year decrease for a margin of 14%. Operating income was impacted by $102 million in impairment charges on intangibles primarily related to our Meetic and Hyperconnect businesses. The charges stem from declining financial performance at Meetic as well as the use of higher discount rates on Hyperconnect's long-range forecasts due to the higher interest rate environment and higher market volatility overall. Our Hyperconnect business outlook did not change meaningfully during the quarter. Adjusted operating income was $286 million, down 2% year-over-year, representing a margin of 36%. Q4 AOI and margin strength reflected our nimbleness on costs, as we reduced marketing spend and rationalized some bonus and overhead costs. Excluding the impact of the $102 million of impairment charges, overall expenses, including SBC expense, were essentially flat year-over-year in Q4. Cost of revenue grew 1% year-over-year and represented 30% of total revenue, up 1 point year-over-year driven by App Store fees and hosting costs. Selling and marketing spend decreased $12 million or 9% year-over-year, the third consecutive quarter where we've seen a year-over-year reduction as we continue to reduce marketing spend at our lower-growth brands and to exercise ROI discipline overall. Selling and marketing spend was down 1 point year-over-year as a percentage of total revenue to 16%. G&A expense was flat year-over-year and steady at 14% of revenue, reflecting lower legal fees but higher compensation expense. Product development costs grew 21% year-over-year and were 10% of revenue primarily reflecting increased engineering headcount at Tinder and Hinge. Our gross leverage was 3.4x trailing adjusted operating income, and net leverage was 2.9x at the end of Q4. We ended the quarter with $581 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on hand. We did not repurchase any shares in the quarter as we decide to allow our cash balance to build slightly. And we are concerned by the high volatility and weakness in the equity markets generally in Q4, which drove ours and many other stock prices down throughout the quarter. With our cash balance now strong, we will reconsider repurchases once the window reopens. We currently have 5.3 million shares remaining under our buyback authorization. When we look at our history as a public company, 2022 stands out as a year we did not hit our growth targets, delivering 7% top line and 6% AOI growth, respectively. Some of the miss was due to macro factors, including consumer weakness and particularly FX. On an FX-neutral basis, our top line growth was 14% in 2022. But our business overall and Tinder, in particular, decelerated as the year went on. And product execution was not where we expected to be, especially in the first half of the year. For the full year 2022, Tinder direct revenue was approximately $1.8 billion. Hinge delivered $284 million in direct revenue, slightly below our $300 million expectation due primarily to our decision to delay the rollout of HingeX. Evergreen & Emerging had $730 million in direct revenue, and our Asia brands delivered $322 million in direct revenue. Fortunately, we made critical corrective changes in the middle of the year, which have begun delivering results. It's still very early, and it will require some patience through 2023 to see the momentum build, but we're increasingly confident we're on course to deliver results consistent with our standards. For Q1 '23, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $790 million to $800 million, roughly flat year-over-year. For Tinder, we expect direct revenue to increase slightly year-over-year. We expect Hinge to deliver Q1 year-over-year direct revenue growth of over 25% driven by continued strong performance in its core English-speaking markets, the introduction of the two new pricing tiers and continued European expansion. The early testing of the new Hinge tiers is going well with take rate consistent with our expectations, higher conversion impact than we expected and no notable cannibalization of à la carte revenue. We expect the tiers to be globally rolled out by the end of February. We expect our Evergreen & Emerging Brands' direct revenue to be down under 10% year-over-year in aggregate, and our Asian brands to decline just under 15% driven in large part by FX. We expect Q1 indirect revenue to be down close to 10% year-over-year, given ad budgets broadly are being slashed due to macroeconomic concerns. We expect adjusted operating income of $250 million to $255 million in Q1, representing margin of about 32% at the midpoint of the ranges. IAP fees continue to be a headwind and will also now include an $8 million payment into the Google litigation escrow, which was a cost we didn't incur last Q1. We expect marketing spend to be up year-over-year at Tinder and Hinge with reductions elsewhere in the portfolio. We expect to incur $3 million to $5 million of severance and similar costs in Q1 related to our personnel reductions and cost savings initiatives. Macroeconomic factors are impacting our business, consistent with our expectations thus far in early 2023. That, coupled with improved product execution at our Tinder brand, gives us increasing confidence that Match Group can deliver 5% to 10% year-over-year revenue growth in 2023. We believe Tinder is positioned to deliver a similar range of growth. We also remain confident that Hinge's momentum will lead it to delivering nearly $400 million of direct revenue in 2023, approximately $100 million more than in 2022. We expect the company overall as well as Tinder to have accelerating year-over-year revenue growth as we move through 2023 driven by improved product execution leading to improved revenue momentum at Tinder. In terms of AOI, we expect improving year-over-year margins in the back half of the year as the benefits of our cost savings initiatives take hold and Tinder top line growth accelerates. Our cost savings initiatives are focused on rightsizing headcount and reducing overhead costs, including office expenses and professional fees. We expect to reduce our global workforce by approximately 8% in aggregate. We've already reduced roles in the U.S. In other countries, this process is ongoing. We expect to incur $6 million of severance and similar costs related to our cost savings initiatives in 2023. We're also reallocating marketing spend from lower-growth businesses to higher-growth ones in 2023 to keep overall spend close to flat. Our financial outlook reflects no change to current App Store policies, though we believe that the stores are moving to comply with aspects of the Digital Markets Act that is now in effect in Europe. The stores are also facing continued legal setbacks and restrictions in other markets globally such as India. We continue to expect changes in the App Store ecosystem, but the timing and shape of the changes is challenging to predict. We expect to be a U.S. Federal cash taxpayer in 2023. The precise amount we will pay depends in part on our stock price, which affects the compensation expense deductions we can take. We currently expect to convert low 70s percent of our AOI into free cash flow in 2023. We expect 2023 SBC expense of $230 million to $250 million, with the year-over-year increase driven by previous hiring as well as our desire to remain competitive on compensation. We've made a lot of critical changes since BK arrived mid last year, including revamping the Tinder team, streamlining our organizational structure, implementing cost savings initiatives and hiring critical new talent. These changes are just beginning to pay dividends. We expect it to take a little time in the first half of 2023 to build momentum but are confident that improved product momentum and our financial discipline position us for much stronger growth and profitability in the back half of the year as well as longer term. We look forward to delivering a combination of strong growth, profitability and cash flow generation for our shareholders. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Ygal Arounian with Citi.
Ygal Arounian :
I want to ask about Tinder, and you spent a good amount of time in the investor letter talking about the Tinder product roadmap. And maybe you could just dig in a little bit deeper on that. And you mentioned you're starting to execute on that roadmap, maybe some kind of practical examples of that and highlight where we are and how much there is left to get through this year? And then second question on Tinder. And you talked about the three components of expanding the core experience of deeper engagement, broadening monetization and then optimization. You highlighted that optimization is going to drive 2/3 of Tinder's revenue growth in 2023. Just can you expand on that a little bit, why that's happening? And how we can expect the other two components to contribute to revenue growth over time?
Bernard Kim :
Thanks, Ygal. I can take that one. It's been pretty clear when I joined last May that I wasn't happy with the state of the Tinder roadmap. So we moved quickly, and we made changes to the team. And we pushed really hard over the next six months thinking about our product roadmap and where we want to take the business. It was important to lock a roadmap that everyone was aligned on. We focused on two key areas
Operator:
The next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.
Lauren Schenk :
Great. You mentioned in the letter that the year is off to a solid start performance-wise. Just wondering if you could expand on those comments and what you're seeing specifically? And is the improvement broad-based or specific to some brands or regions? And then just maybe following up on the last question, what are some of the KPIs or trends that you're seeing internally that give you confidence in Tinder reaccelerating to mid-teens revenue growth by the end of the year?
Gary Swidler :
Thanks, Lauren. Why don't I try to take that one? So when we met on our last earnings call, we told you that we are seeing significant pressure on our ALC revenue, which was really driven by macro factors, particularly younger consumers that were feeling pressure from the economic environment. And that was especially acute at our Tinder brand where we have a lot of younger consumers. That impacted our Q4 performance, and it was also really a potential overhang on our 2023 performance as well. But since we met last time, a couple of things have happened. The first one, which BK mentioned, was that Tinder put out a lot of initiatives to reverse the trends in ALC. And you can see from the chart that's in the letter, they did succeed in reversing a lot of the decline we are seeing in ALC, not all of it, but a significant portion. And the other thing, and this is very important over the last few months is that we've really seen stability in our ALC trends. And so we have not seen further degradation, which was a risk when we spoke last time. I'd also want to add that we haven't seen any impact on our subscription revenue trends. That's Tinder and business-wide. I think our subscription trends remain extremely resilient to any economic pressure. But it's ALC where we've been impacted by some of the macro things going on. And I would also say that, as you know, dating has a bit of a peak season that starts at the end of December and runs through Valentine's Day. And so we watch the peak season, which tends to be a good harbinger of what's coming in Q1 and for the rest of the year. And what we've seen is really stability in those trends, kind of the typical pop that we see in trends in the peak season, we did see that this year as well, which tells us that the macro trends have not led to worsening consumer demand. They've not put incremental pressure on the consumer demand in the ALC. So that's been particularly encouraging and gives us more confidence in our 2023 outlook than we had last time. So just to summarize, while we see pressure on ALC and in fact, we see ALC revenue down year-over-year at Tinder, in particular, we don't think those trends are worsening. And so with stable ALC trends and with subscription revenue being resilient, that gives us that confidence in the outlook for 2023 and the fact that we think as the year progresses, we'll start to see improved momentum as well. And I would tell you that the peak season trends that we're seeing are not just a Tinder phenomenon, but we're seeing good stability of peak season trends across all of our businesses. I would also tell you that we think that the Americas business is pretty strong. It's a little bit weaker in Europe and certainly was in the fourth quarter, but in general, we think Europe is a little bit weaker than the Americas. In terms of the Tinder reacceleration as the year goes on, as we've talked about a few times now, we're very clear that the problem was largely a product execution one. And we're really pleased with the strides the team has made over the last six months in improving on product execution. And BK mentioned the Tinder team has a clear and strong product roadmap for 2023, and we see them executing on it. We see them shipping product and moving forward. The other thing, which BK also alluded to, is that we have more confidence in Tinder achieving its goals in 2023 from a financial perspective and accelerating its momentum to achieve that double-digit growth by Q4 because the roadmap is not dependent on one or two big swing initiative that we have to achieve. Rather, it's a series and a large number of smaller initiatives that really contribute to the growth. So that really does reduce the risk that we see in achieving the financial objectives for the year. And BK specifically pointed out that 2/3 of the revenue growth for the year for Tinder are coming from optimizations, which we have a high confidence in, strong line of sight to what we've done before. And we think they're highly achievable now that we've got the right team focused on those optimizations. So while there's a lot of work still left to be done and it's really early in the year, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves. I feel like we have a strong line of sight to getting back to that mid-teens growth by Q4.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mario Lu with Barclays.
Mario Lu :
Great. A couple on Tinder. In terms of the fourth quarter payer number decline of 300,000 quarter-on-quarter, just curious if you could talk a bit more about the drivers there. And then given the payer definition, just curious if those payers were the ones that only bought à la carte previously and stopped for a large reason for the decline?
Gary Swidler :
Sure. Let me take that one as well. So the fourth quarter Tinder's payer number was really affected by a couple of things, which I kind of just alluded to. The first is the overall macro weakness and the pressure on the consumer, the younger consumer, consumers with less discretionary income, which is definitely impacting Tinder and the Tinder payer numbers generally as well as the product weakness and lack of product momentum that Tinder did not achieve in Q -- in 2022. And so that manifests itself throughout the year and led to a weaker Q3 and Q4 from a Tinder payer perspective as well as a Tinder revenue growth perspective. And so those are really the two key factors that are affecting what you see in the Tinder payer number in Q4. The thing that maybe we didn't talk about as much on the last call, which we did end up doing starting in Q4 and we're going to continue to do in Q1 and probably through most, if not all, of 2023 is we are doing a bigger focus on product -- sorry, on pricing optimizations. And that's a big initiative for us. We're basically at Tinder eliminating more of the intro pricing and discount pricing than we had been planning to previously. That's having an adverse effect on the Tinder payer numbers, and that's what happened in Q4. But it's relatively neutral to revenue. And so our goal is to get Tinder to much more optimal price points, which, again, will impact the payer numbers there. But longer term, it's a revenue positive. We'll essentially have fewer payers but at higher price points. So that's an ongoing project through the year, which is going to have some effect on Tinder payer numbers. As you know, we tend to target overall revenue goals, not specifically RPP or payer numbers at Tinder. And there's going to be volatility in both those depending on the level of optimizations we do through the year, depending on our roadmap, depending on whether we do higher-priced tiers or not at Tinder. There's a lot of variables that could be traded off by us in terms of RPP versus payers, but we're somewhat indifferent to those two metrics. We are focused much more on revenue and revenue generation. The other part of your question I just wanted to quickly address is you asked about whether there was any impact from people who are just buying ALC products but are not subscribers at Tinder and did that have any effect on the Tinder subscriber numbers or payer numbers. And I would tell you that they're a relatively small, really pretty tiny component of overall Tinder payers. We don't see that many Tinder payers who are only taking ALC but not a subscription. So that's not really -- that trend hasn't changed, and that's not really a meaningful impact on the payer numbers that you see in Q4 or in any other quarter. So the price optimizations are probably the one additional factor that I would highlight that affected those numbers.
Mario Lu :
Great. And then in terms of Tinder growth for this year, I know you're planning towards total revenue. But in terms of the 5% to 10% expected growth for this year and a slight growth in 1Q, is there any additional color you can provide just in terms of the drivers of growth between the payer users and then RPP?
Gary Swidler :
Yes. I mean, because there's a lot of swing factors in that, I don't really want to get locked in specifically to kind of an outlook for RPP specifically or payers growth specifically. I would tell you that sitting here today, our forecast kind of calls for relatively balanced growth between payers and RPP for the year, but it could shift depending on what initiatives succeed more than others, what we prioritize as the year goes on, what succeeds in testing. So that's our best guess sitting here right now, but we don't have religion around that, and it really could shift. But I would tell you it's relatively balanced. The other thing that I would just point out to you is that I do expect softer Tinder payers growth in the first half of the year and stronger Tinder payer growth in the back half of the year because the momentum is building, the initiatives will be rolled out as the year goes on. And so opposite of what we saw in 2022 where you had strong payers growth in the beginning of the year and then not enough initiatives that led to weaker payers growth in the back half of last year. You're going to have a bit of the opposite effect this year where you've got this product momentum building, payers momentum building, momentum in the business generally. And that should carry through to stronger revenue growth, obviously, which is in our outlook as well as stronger payers growth year-over-year in the back half of the year. So those are the trends that we're expecting for the year. Hopefully, that's helpful.
Operator:
The next question comes from Alexandra Steiger with Goldman Sachs.
Alexandra Steiger :
Shifting gears to Hinge. First, could you please maybe share some feedback and early learnings from the recently launched HingeX in plus tiers? And then second, how should we think about the revenue growth opportunity beyond '23 and the $400 million revenue guide you provided through the lens of payer net adds and then also ARPU growth?
Bernard Kim :
Thanks, Alexandra, for the question. We spent the last few months refining the HingeX value proposition, and we've been testing it on a small percentage of the Hinge user base. We're really pleased with where it stands, and we're confident that it will deliver the expected contribution to our $400 million plan this year. The global rollout is planned for the end of February. And after it goes live, we'll continue to optimize it. It's important to understand that when you launch a new premium tier, you unlock a new kind of buyer. And the price points will pay dividends over multiple years. While we will benefit in 2023 from some incremental revenue from the higher price tier, the long-term value will be realized over time in terms of higher RPP and conversion. HingeX is a unique feature that directly leans into Hinge's designed to be deleted motto. And if it works, we believe it will lead to even more success for Hinge and create even more relationships around the world.
Operator:
Next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc.
Justin Patterson :
Bernard, could you talk about just in broader detail why you found this to be the right organizational structure and how the different teams start to incentivize? And then perhaps related to that, could you talk about some of the top priorities for Will and where we can see his imprints and product lead as product lead over the next year?
Bernard Kim :
Thanks, Justin, for the question. I've spent the last eight months digging in and learning about the organization and have been really impressed with what I've seen. Following the positive impacts from the changes at Tinder, it became clear to me that we could do more by being more efficient and making some structural changes to the organization that could help us grow and continue to innovate. We believe by reorganizing the company into four pillars, Tinder, Hinge, Asia and Evergreen & Emerging, we're better aligned to focus on key areas of growth and double down on our strategy. At Tinder and Hinge, there's significant upside. So we want to continue to invest in the teams there. And now I have a direct line of sight into each of those businesses. In Asia, I thought it was important to have a product-focused leader on the ground working with those businesses to recapture growth and drive profitability. With Evergreen & Emerging, we have similar businesses that we've now combined into one global organization. With this, there should be many opportunities to share learnings and be more nimble and more efficient. And then with the Emerging Brands and our new bets, this team has built and launched new businesses before. And there's been a lot of experience bringing these products to market, serving unique demographics. We think there will be really exciting opportunities coming out of this group as well. As I've said in the letter, ultimately, I believe that this new org structure will improve transparency and accountability across the entire company. We're also really excited that we're adding Will Wu to the team as CTO. I've personally known Will for a long time, and I know how passionate he is about product and innovation. He has an incredible track record on innovation and has changed the way that Gen Z has interacted on social media platforms. He's a really low ego guy, and he just wants to win. He'll be based with me and the Tinder team in Los Angeles. And I think he'll work really well with our teams all across Match Group.
Gary Swidler :
And I think in response to your question is that on the incentives, we tend to be pretty creative on our incentive structures. For example, the Hinge team is incentivized around its own performance. The performance of the business is a significant part of their incentives. And we've done that in other situation as well. And we are working on some other incentive programs around achieving specific goals in specific areas of the company. So we are trying to tailor incentives to drive more of the results that we're seeking, and that's something that we're actively working on.
Operator:
The next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.
Cory Carpenter :
So you left the '23 outlook unchanged. But given the weaker dollar, this does imply a bit of a downgrade on an FX-neutral basis. Just hoping you could talk about what's driving your more cautious view on an FX-neutral basis and your decision to keep the reported guide unchanged versus going through the FX? And maybe perhaps specifically any changes to your outlook at certain brands that were driving this?
Gary Swidler :
Yes. I mean, I wouldn't quite characterize it that way. I don't think just -- we have a 5% to 10% range. It's a pretty broad range for the year, and just because we're not adjusting it right now, it doesn't mean it's implicitly a decreased outlook. Cory, as you know, FX has been really volatile for the last 12 or 13 months and it's been particularly volatile in just the last few weeks as well as since our last earnings call. I think at our last earnings call, it was like a 3-point headwind for the full year '23. Now it's basically neutral. And I think it's down to about a 3-point headwind in Q1. So based on that level of volatility plus there's still a lot of uncertainty out there around macro, so we feel like our trends are stable. And we've been really happy with peak season, but it's hard to deny there's a lot of uncertainty on the macro front for full year '23. And certainly, for the first half of the year, I think pretty much every company is calling that out in their earnings call. So given all that, we just didn't think it was prudent to start adjusting our guidance ranges at this very early stage in the year. It's February 1 after all. So we left that unchanged. But obviously, as you rightly point out, to the extent there are FX tailwinds, that would be a swing factor either to a higher level within our range or potentially above the top end of our range depending on what kind of tailwind we get from FX as the year goes on. So I would rather kind of wait and see how some of that plays out, whether we see some level of stability around FX. And then, of course, we'll revisit it. I'm sure we'll revisit it next quarter as well. But -- and overall, in terms of your question, I don't think there's really significant changes to our business outlook really at any of our businesses. As I said in the answer to the question that Lauren asked, we've actually seen a good start to the year across most of the businesses. And so we feel like things have firmed up, but we're also cognizant of the fact there's a lot of risk and uncertainty and things to battle through. And so we feel good about kind of where we are from an outlook perspective at this point in time. But there's still a lot of innings to play in the game. So we're going to see how it plays out.
Operator:
The next question comes from Deepak Mathivanan with Wolfe Research.
Deepak Mathivanan :
Just want to ask about the Tinder CEO search process. Can you provide an update there? What has been the challenge? And how important is it for a new leader to buy in with the product roadmap that you currently have for 2023 since you're putting a lot of efforts into these?
Bernard Kim :
Thanks, Deepak, for the question. We're continuing to look for a candidate, but we want to make sure that we're finding the right person that will work well with the Tinder team. In the meantime, the current leadership team is working really well together. The team has now been in place for six months, and they've gone through the kind of gelling well together stage to fully execution mode. We're making really good progress, and we feel actually really good with where we are. So there's no rush to add a CEO. We're only going to do it if the person really brings a lot to the table. Thanks so much for that question, Deepak.
Operator:
The next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.
Benjamin Black :
Gary, you mentioned that AOI margin should be at least flat in 2023. Beyond sort of App Store fee changes, what are the swing factors that could potentially drive upside or downside here? And also how should we be thinking about the quarterly margin cadence throughout the year? And then finally, when should we expect to see the impact from the 8% reduction in force?
Gary Swidler :
So on your question, Ben, first of all, I want to say we're very focused on making sure we deliver at least flat, if not improved margins year-over-year this year. That is a goal for us. It's one of the drivers behind implementing the cost savings plan. So we're very committed to making sure that, that happens. In terms of the swing factors aside from App Store relief -- and by the way, I think App Store relief is likely to be a 2024 event but we're waiting to see how the regulatory processes continue to play out, but that could be a significant event for us as soon as 2024. I think there's a few swing factors. The first really would be around Tinder executing on its product roadmap better than what we're expecting. So getting some improved revenue growth on the Tinder side would be very margin beneficial. Same thing would be true on the new Hinge tiers. That would be upside to the extent they perform better. And right now, they're performing as we expect, but it's still a very small test. And so we'll see how that continues to play out. And then a recovery in Japan would be very helpful for us as well, which you'd like to think is going to happen at some point this year but is not currently baked into our forecast. Just generally, any macro improvement, macro tailwinds, which is not what we're expecting as the year goes on, but any of that would be very helpful. But because we can't rely on those things, in this environment, we implemented this cost savings plan. And it's going to generate meaningful savings for us in terms of marketing spend, headcount, overhead, et cetera. When I look at kind of the trends for the year, which you asked about, we are expecting some margin degradation in the first half of the year, which we're expecting to be lower growth for us. And we won't have the effects yet of significant cost savings implemented. But as the year progresses and we deliver enhanced revenue growth, which is what we're expecting and we've talked about throughout this call, and we also get the compounding benefits of the cost savings initiatives in the back half of the year, we're expecting there to be year-over-year margin improvement. And so when you put that together, less strong margin in the first half of the year, improvement in the second half of the year, that's how we get to flat or better margin target for the full year, and we have confidence that we can deliver that. I'd also note that we're including the severance and other costs. But if you were to exclude those, then the margin in the first half would actually be better than what we're providing in terms of our outlook. The other thing I just want to highlight, you raised IAP fees. In the first quarter of '23, we have about $5 million of incremental headwinds from IAP fees just as more Hinge revenue and continued mix shift towards app. And then we've got the $8 million of headwinds from having the Google litigation escrow this year, which we didn't have last year. So that's $13 million of incremental costs that are essentially out of our control, plus you layer on top of that the severance and other cost savings initiative costs. So you have pretty significant year-over-year headwinds from those kinds of items. The other thing in terms of margins, I just would draw out for your awareness, is that we like many tech companies hired a lot of people late in 2021, early 2022, particularly in product development, engineering heads at Tinder and Hinge, which has created incremental product development costs for us, which have been visible for the last few quarters and continue to be. But that's going to moderate because we really slowed hiring, and we're reducing head in some places. We're constricting our hiring really to Hinge and a couple of other strong growth business at this point. So you're going to see moderating product development year-over-year cost increases as 2023 goes on. And we're confident of that, given the hiring trends. So that's a margin tailwind for us as well. So those are some factors to think about as you model out kind of our margin trajectory and cadence for the year.
Operator:
The next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen.
John Blackledge:
Just coming back to Tinder, could you discuss further the rationale for the upcoming global Tinder marketing campaign?
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, John, for the question. When I started working with the Tinder team, I saw a real opportunity for marketing. Frankly, this is an area we need to make more investment to drive a brand story that better reflects all the positive outcomes that Tinder is responsible for. There has actually never been a Tinder global brand campaign before, and it's been years since we've actually had a defined marketing campaign in general. I think that the perception has taken a hold about Tinder is too limited. We want people to come into the platform feeling comfortable whatever their relationship intent is. The team had some really provocative and creative ideas. And this campaign will celebrate all of the relationship possibilities that Tinder creates every single day. We think that this will drive top-of-funnel growth over time. We intentionally moved Melissa into the Tinder CMO role because she has a track record of big, bold, attention-grabbing campaigns at OkCupid. And I know she and the team will do great things together at Tinder. We're really excited to roll out our first campaign and see the reaction. Stay tuned.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.
Shweta Khajuria:
Most of my questions have been addressed. But if you could please talk about Japan. You mentioned that you're not seeing much progress there, but that could drive upside. Any sense on when you think that could happen? Or what your -- or commentary on what you're seeing right now? And then the follow-up I have is, how do you -- it sounds like you're very confident now with the guidance, reiterating the reported guidance for the full year. Could you please talk about, Gary, the level of conservatism and/or the confidence you have in delivering to this for both top line and margins?
Gary Swidler :
Well, I think on the margin outlook, obviously, that's much more in our control, and we've taken steps that we know are going to lead to more cost discipline. Obviously, we can go further if the conditions dictate. So I feel very confident in the flat or better margins. That is something that we are extremely committed to. I think you rightfully pointed out that based on what we've seen so far this year, we feel incremental confidence in our outlook for the year. But as I said in response to Cory's question, I think it's really just a little too early, really one month into the year to start further adjusting our outlook. And we tend to try to be conservative and thoughtful when we provide the guidance. So especially in an environment where there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of things that remain unknown, I think that's the right course and the prudent course to take. So we're sticking by it. But I think it's fair to say that what we've tried to get across this morning is that the start to the year has been very solid for us. And that is giving us confidence that what we're seeing is going to come to fruition as the year goes on. Japan is a wildcard. I think that the government there is really trying to take steps to fully get COVID behind it, trying to discourage real from wearing masks and things like that. But as we've talked about previously, there's been a reasonable amount of less socialization in that market because of all the restrictions that came from COVID. And so when kind of society there is going to really rebound back to much more normal levels of socialization is really hard to say. All I can tell you is we haven't seen it so far. It's been a number of quarters now. And as a result of that, we're not assuming that it happens in 2023. At some point, it's likely we're going to come to you and say we've seen a rebound in that market. I cannot tell you precisely when that's going to be. So again, from a conservatism standpoint, we're not assuming that rebound in the Japanese market this year. But we're hoping we're wrong, and it will come sooner. And we're looking for catalyst to try to spur activity in that market, which would be meaningful upside to us because Japan is such an important market for both our Pairs brand and our Tinder brand. So we'll have to wait and see. But again, right now, based on what we're seeing in conservatism, it dictates not assuming anything kind of from a rebound standpoint in the Japanese market.
Gary Swidler :
All right. With that, I know we're out of time. So we're going to sign off, but thank you, everybody, for joining us. We appreciate the continued support, and we will talk to you in the next quarter.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Match Group Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instruction] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Tanny Shelburne:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Tanny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. I'm delighted to be on our second earnings call at the company. The time has flown by, and I attribute that to the team coming together, making decisive calls and taking real action to accelerate momentum. As our third quarter results demonstrate, we have a lot to be proud of. When you exclude FX impact, we saw double-digit growth. There is still a lot of work to do. And while the macroeconomic environment is proving more challenging, we have a great team and an excellent portfolio of brands. That makes me optimistic that we can create significant long-term shareholder value. After just a few months, the team at Tinder is gelling well together, and there has been a palpable change in the culture. We have made some big changes to improve organizational efficiencies and operations to get the team shipping product and accelerating growth. Some examples of this are bringing the revenue and product teams together so they're collaborating and supporting one another as one team in our shared mission. The marketing team is also working with and challenging the product teams to ensure that we're building features that users can get excited about. Whenever reorganizations occur, there's always a risk of attrition. But with this new team in place, we haven't seen any. That's promising. We aren't dealing with massive disruption. Instead, we are getting more products into testing, working together to eventually return Tinder to previous growth levels. That won't happen overnight, but we are moving in the right direction. I am excited about how our 2023 road map is beginning to take shape, which centers in 4 key areas
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, BK, and hello again, everyone. In a tough environment, we had a solid Q3 with total revenue of $810 million, up 1% year-over-year. The FX headwinds were severe once again as our revenue would have been $883 million, up 10% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis. The FX impact was $8 million worse than we expected when we provided our Q3 outlook on our August earnings call. Our direct revenue also grew 1% year-over-year. It grew 5% year-over-year in the Americas with growth at Tinder, Hinge, BLK and Chispa but declines at the Established Brands. Direct revenue declined 1% year-over-year in Europe but was up 15% on an FX-neutral basis driven by Tinder and Hinge. Direct revenue declined 5% in APAC and other but was up 16% on an FX-neutral basis driven by Tinder. Total payers were 16.5 million, an increase of 2% from the prior year quarter. Payers were down 1% year-over-year in each of the Americas and Europe and up 12% in APAC and other. Tinder payer additions grew stronger than we had expected, while our Established Brands, including Match, Meetic, OkCupid and Plenty of Fish saw year-over-year payer declines of over 15% in aggregate. RPP was flat year-over-year at $16.02 in Q3. RPP was up 6% in the Americas, a 1 point sequential improvement, reflecting higher average rates for subscriptions and increased average a la carte purchases per payer at Tinder and Hinge. RPP was flat year-over-year in Europe, where contributions from Tinder and Hyperconnect were offset by the strength of the U.S. dollar compared to the euro and the British pound. RPP was down 14% in APAC and other due to the strength of the dollar relative to the yen and the Turkish lira. On an FX-neutral basis, RPP was up 9% company-wide again in Q3, up 16% in Europe and 4% in APAC and other. Tinder performed slightly above our expectations in the quarter, delivering direct revenue of $460 million, up 6% year-over-year, 16% on an FX-neutral basis. Tinder had payers growth of 7% year-over-year, adding 700,000 payers to 11.1 million and a 1% RPP decline year-over-year in the quarter, which again shows the impact of FX. Tinder RPP was up 8% on an FX-neutral basis. Recall that Tinder made several beneficial paywall and other optimizations in Q3 '21, which drove record sequential payer additions and strong revenue in that quarter. We're now facing that challenging comp. All other brands direct revenue was down 5% year-over-year in Q3 driven by an 8% payer decline and 3% RPP growth. Hinge, BLK and Chispa continue to drive the growth. We continue to pull back on marketing spend for some of our Established Brands. And Plenty of Fish, in particular, continue to be impacted by macroeconomic conditions. In Asia, Hyperconnect's Azar app revenue was down 7% year-over-year. However, on an FX-neutral basis, it was up more than 10% due to the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Turkish lira and the Japanese yen. Hakuna continues to face challenges with revenue down low double digits year-over-year. Payers continue to be affected by market softness in Japan with only a slight year-over-year increase in revenue but down more than 15% as reported. Indirect revenue was $14 million in the quarter, flat to Q2 but down 11% year-over-year. Operating income was $211 million in Q3 with margins of 26%. Adjusted operating income was flat year-over-year at $284 million, representing a margin of 35%. Overall expenses, including SBC expense, grew 3% year-over-year in Q3. Cost of revenue grew 6% year-over-year primarily due to higher [indiscernible] fees, including the $8 million placed into the escrow for the Google litigation. Cost of revenue represented 31% of total revenue, up 2 points year-over-year. Selling and marketing spend decreased $24 million or 16% year-over-year, the second consecutive quarter where we've seen a year-over-year reduction as we continue to reduce marketing spend at our more Established Brands and to show ROI discipline overall. Selling and marketing spend was down 3 points year-over-year as a percentage of total revenue to 60%. G&A expense rose $11 million or 10% year-over-year. G&A comprised 14% of revenue, up 1 point from the prior year quarter. The increase in G&A expense reflects lower legal fees but higher compensation and headcount expense as well as an increase in travel expenses of $4 million as we continue to return to a more normal cadence of business travel. Product development costs grew 31% year-over-year and were 11% of revenue as we increased headcount, particularly at Tinder and Hinge. Our gross leverage was 3.5 times trailing adjusted operating income, and our net leverage was 3.1 times at the end of Q3. We ended the quarter with $398 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on hand. We deployed $267 million in the first month of Q3 to buy back 4.3 million of our shares at a VWAP of approximately $63 per share on a trade date basis. While the stock continued to decline significantly after we deployed our buyback, we believe our stock repurchase represents a sound long-term investment. We currently have 5.3 million shares remaining under our buyback authorization. For Q4, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $780 million to $790 million. We anticipate nearly $70 million of year-over-year FX headwinds in Q4, meaning that total revenue growth would be nearly 9 points higher on an FX-neutral basis. This headwind is $14 million more than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call. We expect Tinder's Q4 direct revenue to be relatively flat year-over-year, up high single digits on an FX-neutral basis with mid-single-digit payers growth as ALC softness due to weak macroeconomic conditions impacts payers. We plan to adjust some of our merchandising tactics to help offset this. Historically, we've primarily offered large high-cost bundles of ALC features, for example, $30 bundles of Super Likes, which had been quite successful. In the current environment, we're adjusting our merchandising to emphasize smaller, lower-priced bundles to our users who see value in these ALC features but are now more price-sensitive. All other brands direct revenue is expected to be down mid-single digits but up low single digits on an FX-neutral basis. We expect Hinge, BLK and Chispa will continue to drive the growth, helping offset declines at the Established Brands as well as at Pairs and Hyperconnect due to FX. We expect indirect revenue to be down about 20% year-over-year, given pressures we're seeing building in the ad sales market. We expect adjusted operating income of $270 million to $275 million in Q4, representing margins of about 35% at the midpoint of the ranges. In Q4, we plan to increase marketing spend at Hinge, both in the U.S. where we see terrific momentum as well as in its international expansion markets as per its plan. We also expect to spend up slightly at Tinder and to launch a new brand marketing campaign at our Match brand. Given lower spend at our other brands, we expect meaningfully lower year-over-year aggregate selling and marketing spend again in Q4. While visibility into 2023 is challenging, we're focused on delivering 5% to 10% year-over-year revenue growth in 2023. We believe Tinder is positioned to deliver a similar range of growth. This equates to total revenue up high single digits to low double digits on an FX-neutral basis as we expect FX to be about a 3-point drag in 2023. We anticipate that the Emerging Brands such as Hinge, Chispa and BLK will deliver sufficient growth to offset the declines at the Established Brands. We expect Hinge to deliver at least $100 million of incremental revenue in 2023. We expect the company as a whole to have accelerating year-over-year revenue growth as we move through 2023 driven by improved product execution leading to improved revenue momentum at Tinder. The 5% to 10% top line range reflects 3 key variables. One, quality of product execution and the timing/success initiatives at Tinder. If Tinder executes well, growth will be on the higher end of the range. Two, the strength of the contribution from international expansion and the new premium tier at Hinge. And three, macroeconomic impacts, particularly on lowering consumers and especially on a la carte purchases primarily at Tinder. On the AOI side, we're still calibrating spend levels and the investments that we want to make in 2023. We expect incremental sales and marketing spend at Hinge to support its global user growth, including in its expansion across Europe. Despite the investment, we expect Hinge to maintain AOI margins of 30% plus. We expect to spend incremental marketing at Tinder to support its product enhancements and drive user growth. Even with that, we're confident Tinder can continue to achieve AOI margins in the 50% range. We also intend to invest in The League, which we acquired earlier this year and believe has solid growth potential. We plan to invest in incubating a couple of new apps, which we're confident can better serve certain demographic groups than the existing offerings. To enable us to make the investments in our growth businesses, we plan to reduce operating expenses in other areas of the company to ensure that we can deliver at least flat year-over-year margins in 2023. This assumes no change to current App Store policies. We believe our business continues to achieve profitability and cash flow generation that has few parallels in consumer tags. We've always been conscious of delivering profitability and cash flow. But in the current operating environment, our focus on these items is being sharpened significantly. Our job for the coming year is to invest wisely in select growth opportunities and to manage costs judiciously elsewhere. And our team is up to the task. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Deepak Mathivanan with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Deepak Mathivanan:
So I just wanted to ask a little bit more about the weakness in a la carte. Is this impact more acute to certain markets, given the macro headwinds have been relatively somewhat different in various regions? Or is this more broad-based? Can you also provide a little bit of additional context on some of the brands that's experiencing to it?
Bernard Kim:
I want to start off by saying ALC purchases from our power users still remain very strong. And we're seeing strong subscriptions, and they remain very sticky. The main impact that we're seeing is from impulse and occasional buyers as they tend to be more price-sensitive, and they are impacted more by macroeconomic factors. As Gary pointed out, we've historically marketed our ALC products in large bundles, and that have led to significant purchases of these large bundles. Therefore, we're moving quickly, and we're adjusting our ALC merchandising to emphasize smaller bundles to more price-sensitive customers. The customers that are most affected are younger users with less discretionary income, but we don't see a difference across geographies. This is a reminder that conditions are ever changing. The macroeconomic environment is uncertain, and we have to be nimble and be able to react to our consumers throughout the year. I am impressed by the speed at which Tinder can diagnose and react to these type of effects. The Tinder team is actively working on mitigating this as much as possible, but I expect this is going to take some time and iteration.
Operator:
Our next question comes from James Heaney with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
James Heaney:
I just have a couple of questions on Tinder. What drove the upside to revenue growth versus your expectations in Q3? And then for Q4, it sounds like you have a lot of pretty strong momentum behind Tinder. You're going to increase marketing spend, launching a slate of new products. Curious then why you're expecting more of a deceleration in Q4.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Why don't I go ahead and take that? I think when you look at our Q3, we provided a pretty conservative outlook for the quarter, in part because of all the disruption that was going on at Tinder. We weren't sure exactly how things were going to react to all the changes that we made. And so we wanted to be a little bit conservative in the Q3 outlook. And I think that led to the improvement versus expectations. In Q4, though, we're seeing a pretty significant deterioration in trends even over the last few weeks. We think the macro environment has gotten much more challenging, and we're nervous about it for Q4 and going forward. And so as a result of that, our outlook for Q4 is perhaps lower than you would have thought because we think the caution is warranted, given the change in trends and the weakness in the overall macro environment, which, as BK just said, is really affecting Tinder on the a la carte side as users, especially younger users, have less discretionary income are being a little bit more cautious in their purchasing. And we think that effect is going to linger for a period of time. We are taking actions to offset that, and I think some of those will help offset the effects of it, but it is going to take some time for that to work its way through as well. The other thing I would point out is that we have less product momentum going into Q4 than we typically have and certainly than we did last year when we had a very successful Q3 product adjustments that led to solid momentum in Q4. And remember, product work in the previous quarter or the previous two quarters gives us momentum into the next quarter. So we don't have the momentum we'd like to see or that we typically have leading into Q4. But it is building as the Tinder team makes more progress and influence new things. And so we think that, that momentum will build, and that gives us optimism that as the Tinder team continues to execute the way they need to execute, we'll start to see some improved momentum into 2023.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mark Kelley with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Mark Kelley:
I wanted to ask two. The first one is the letter mentions an expanded advertising component of Tinder. Is that an area of focus again? And I guess what's the right way for us to think about advertising as a percent of the business over time? And then second, the letter sounded like you're a bit more optimistic on virtual goods and currencies maybe relative to when you joined, BK. Am I reading a little bit too much into that? And if not, I guess, what has changed?
Bernard Kim:
Let me take your second question first about virtual goods. So to clarify, I always thought that virtual goods and currencies made sense in the Tinder ecosystem and is a big opportunity. But we want to do this right. And to do this, we have to build the virtual goods and then create the demand. After that, you can create the coin economy to purchase those goods. I asked the teams to rethink that road map and delay the launch into next year. They've been working on it. I'm excited because the Tinder CPO has great experience in building these types of economies. I'm really excited to see this roll out in 2023. And then to your question about advertising, over the last 5 years, advertising has been a modest focus at Tinder, but the reality is over 85% of our users don't pay us anything. In my previous history, I've seen real success in monetizing users that don't pay. So I've asked the team to embrace advertising monetization culturally. I think there's a real opportunity to implement proven ideas from games that I've utilized in the past, for example, rewarded video. I think over time, I would like to see us get through $100 million in advertising revenue, which is about double the revenue that we have today. Thanks so much for the questions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Shweta Khajuria:
I have one on Hinge's premium tier. So could you please talk about the launch? You mentioned Q1 of next year, but is that globally for the entire rollout? And how should we think about your goal for how many payers you may be targeting with that tier?
Bernard Kim:
We'll start testing Hinge's new subscription later this quarter, and we'll begin rolling it out globally after the new year. We believe that this can drive good conversion and strong RPP. Our outlook for 2023 has assumed a relatively modest take for the new tier. We think it's more comparable to Tinder Platinum than Tinder Gold, but we'll know a lot more after we begin testing later this month. Given the delay of the full rollout of this offering and FX headwinds, especially in the U.K., we do expect Hinge to fall about $15 million short of their revenue goal this year. But we like subscription monetization opportunities with Hinge -- with the Hinge user base. As with any big changes to tiers, we'll continue to optimize the offering throughout 2023. So really excited about that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Just getting a lot of moving parts with Japan and Hyperconnect. Hoping you could talk about your expectations and your assumptions for the APAC region next year.
Gary Swidler:
Let me take that, Cory. Thanks for the question. You're right. Our outlook as it relates to APAC businesses next year is a bit challenging just given all the moving parts, as you say. And so in Japan, what we've assumed is really no material change in the trends that we're seeing in the Japanese market next year. I'm hopeful we can do a little bit better than that and start to see some recovery, but we're not really seeing that yet. And so we've assumed that the conditions largely stay the same next year, which basically means we think that our Pairs business can achieve some modest improvement in revenue next year. But probably on a FX -- on a U.S. dollar basis, it's probably going to be down year-over-year. So modestly up in local currency but down on a dollars basis. And I think that business can probably achieve something in the neighborhood of 25% margin. So a reasonably profitable business, but the growth trajectory has really changed. And I'm hopeful that will change for the better leading into the future. Hyperconnect has a couple of moving parts as well. The Azar business is very encouraging as we showed in the letter and we've talked about. We feel good about that. And I think we will continue to see some reasonable level of growth from the Azar business. Hyperconnect -- sorry, Hakuna, at Hyperconnect is more challenged. And we're assuming a little bit of improvement in that business next year compared to this year but not dramatically so. And so when you put that all together, I think that Hyperconnect overall will show some modest level of revenue growth next year in local currency. But again, when you -- FX affected, I think we will be down on a U.S. dollar basis. So that's what we're planning for. So there are some headwinds from a dollar perspective, both on the Japanese business at Pairs and on the Hyperconnect businesses. I think Azar and Hakuna together can probably do about a 10% adjusted operating income margin. We're going to be disciplined on marketing spend and headcount there to try to drive improving margins. And we got to keep driving margins up in that business. And that is something that our new team there working with our existing CEO, Sam Yagan, is very focused on.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Justin Patterson:
Great. Try a multi-parter on Tinder marketing. BK, could you talk about how you see this tighter integration between marketing and product teams influencing the growth of Tinder ahead? It sounds pretty similar to your bold beat strategy over at Zynga. And then for Gary, appreciate the details you gave on Tinder margin still being best-in-class at around 50%. Could you talk a little bit more about just the puts and takes on whether this is kind of a temporary or permanent shift in marketing spend? And what kind of the assumptions are to maintain those best-in-class margins?
Bernard Kim:
I'll try to answer this question on my own. We love the questions around marketing. So traditionally, Tinder has not spent much on marketing. They've always spent about less than 10% of revenue, and we don't see that changing. Thankfully, Tinder is not reliant on marketing to grow the business. However, this is a 10-year-old brand. And especially with younger users who are new to the category, we haven't taken the opportunity to establish our narrative. I believe that Tinder, which is a category leader, has been too quiet in the market for too long. In 2023, we're going to increase marketing spend to establish stronger brand narrative. But to answer your question, it's still going to be below 10% of revenue. With our new CMO, we see great opportunities to get brand message out there in a creative manner and market some of our newer product features that we have planned for next year. These two together should help accelerate user growth at Tinder. And even -- once again, and even with incremental marketing spend, we expect Tinder margin in 2023 to be in the 50% range as they always have been. Thanks for the question.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Youssef Squali with Truist. Please go ahead.
Youssef Squali:
Guys, thanks for sharing the initial outlook for 2023. We understand how challenging visibility is at this point, but still appreciate it. So maybe just a follow-up to the last question about marketing since BK, he liked the marketing questions. So if I understand it correctly, and this is a question about 2023. It seems like Tinder, Hinge and Match will see increase in marketing spend while all the other brands would be down. I guess the question is, is this a temporary strategy to weather the macro environment in 2023? Or do you see this more as a permanent pivot, permanent shift in your strategy going forward? And maybe just a quick one. You guys talked about how Hinge should contribute at least an additional $100 million in 2023. What do you expect that to contribute in 2022 just to have a base off to work off of?
Gary Swidler:
So let me take the Hinge question first. I think BK mentioned that Hinge is probably about $15 million behind the goal for the year, mostly because of FX. It's got a big U.K. business in particular, and it's feeling the impact of FX, especially in -- on the pound. And so we had targeted $300 million. I think we'll probably fall about $15 million short of that. So let's call it, $285 million or so for the year. And then we said we think we can deliver at least $100 million of incremental revenue next year, so that you can add that together. Obviously, the $100 million depends really on the success of the international expansion, but more importantly, on the success and take rate around the new pricing tier, the new premium tier. And so that's really the thing that we don't know. We've made some reasonable estimates on what we think is going to happen with that tier. But we'll know a lot more in a few weeks or certainly by the end of the year as we're planning to start testing the middle of this month. And so by the end of this year, we'll have a much better sense. And so when we get back together again in February, we'll be able to give you some updates on that tier as well as on the overall outlook for Hinge revenue growth next year. So that was one piece of your question. I did also just want to comment on the 2023 outlook just since you raised it, which is by necessity, we wanted to provide an outlook for next year as we often do on this call. But this year, that is particularly challenging because there are so many moving pieces, both in our business and from a macro perspective. And so we don't really know what the macro environment is going to be through next year, what's going to happen from rates and recession and all the things that you know well. So we've tried to make our best guess at that. But clearly, we'll have to see how things play out in the coming months to get a better sense of what 2023 looks like. But sitting here today, making our best guess on what economic conditions are going to be for next year, we're confident in that 5% to 10% growth for the overall company as well as at Tinder on the revenue side. So I just wanted to kind of mention some of that so everyone understands how we've approached providing an outlook for next year at this point, given all the various crosswinds. And then on the last question about the marketing spend. You are right to assume that we're going to see marketing spend increases next year at Tinder for the reason that BK explained about wanting to make sure we establish the brand narrative better than we have in the past as well as at Hinge, which we talked about extensively. And that's really two things. One, to keep supporting its really strong and impressive user growth in the English-speaking markets, U.S., U.K., in particular, as well as continue to build around the world where there's a lot of momentum. Things are going well, more than according to plan, and we feel great about our international expansion opportunity at Hinge. We want to keep investing in that. So those are the places where we are clearly investing meaningful dollars on marketing side. I did want to correct, you said you thought there would be an increase in marketing spend at our Match brand next year. I don't think that's going to be the case. There is going to be an increase in our marketing spend at the Match brand in Q4 of this year, but that's because we have a discrete new brand campaign that we're launching. So there will be a year-over-year increase in Q4 of this year at Match, but we're not planning for that next year. In fact, we expect marketing spend at all the Established Brands, including Match, to be down in 2023 over 2022. And we're using that to offset the investments we're making at the Hinge brand and at the Tinder brand. I would also say that our approach to marketing spend and how we're thinking about our strategy around that is not about weathering the current macroeconomic environment, and it's also not a permanent strategy. It's really a plan for targeted spend increases to achieve our strategic goals. So our strategic goals are at Hinge to grow the business internationally, and that's why we're investing. Our strategic goals at Tinder is to establish the brand narrative and take back some of the brand narrative and make some more noise in the market. And we're planning to do that with increased marketing spend next year. And then we'll sort of go from there. We're nimble in marketing spend, and we will continue to spend where we think it makes sense and pull back where we think it doesn't make sense. A couple of other areas I would point to, where we think we will spend up next year. One would be The League, which we recently acquired. And we think there's significant opportunity for growth of The League, and we plan to invest into that business on the marketing side. We're excited about the opportunities there. And then second is some new apps that we're thinking about incubating. We think there are some markets where the demographics are underserved. And we can build some apps that really satisfy those demographics better than the current offerings. To the extent we do that, user growth will be a priority. Driving user growth and marketing will be a component of that strategy in 2023 once we incubate the new app. So we expect to spend up to the extent we incubate some new apps, which is in our plan for 2023. And then I would just add that philosophically, we're maintaining strict ROI discipline on our marketing spend, as we always do, but especially in a tougher environment. And we believe that all of our brands are marketing spend is meeting or exceeding our ROI threshold. So that is a lens we're going to continue to apply very, very carefully, especially in a challenging environment. We're hopeful that if the economy does soften, we will see some relief in terms of what has been an expensive and competitive marketing environment, but we have not seen that yet. I think it's logical to think it's coming, given all the headwinds in the economy. But if we do see that, we would look to capitalize on that as well. So hopefully, that answers the different parts of your questions, and I thank you for your questions.
Youssef Squali:
Yes, excellent. Very thorough.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen. Please go ahead.,
John Blackledge:
Could you provide some more color on Hinge's international expansion efforts kind of what you're seeing? And then can you talk about kind of upcoming market launches in the fourth quarter and in 2023?
Bernard Kim:
We have a lot of exciting things that are happening at Hinge right now. We've confirmed two things. The product has appealed beyond English-speaking markets, and our marketing and localization tactics are working well. Hinge has found a great fit for singles that are in English markets and now -- in English-speaking markets. And now it's clear that the product resonates in other international markets also. The team is really innovative and laser-focused on getting people on great dates. So it shouldn't be a huge surprise that it's growing so well. The launch in Germany and Sweden has been really great to watch. And we're rolling out localized versions in France, Italy and Spain in this quarter as well. We'll start marketing in those countries in 2023, and we expect Hinge to keep growing across Europe next year. We still have a lot more countries to go, and we'll continue to roll out new markets and should drive growth for Hinge over the next few years.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Lauren Schenk:
Great. BK, you mentioned in the letter you're seeing some promise from early Tinder results. Just hoping you could maybe elaborate and share a few examples there. And then is there a timeline that we should be thinking about in terms of announcing the new Tinder CEO? And then, Gary, I just had one quick follow-up, if I can, on your comments about seeing some deterioration over the last few weeks. Does that fourth quarter guide assume that, that level of softness continues for the rest of the quarter? And is that softness broad-based and just on a la carte spending and payers.
Bernard Kim:
So thanks for the questions. I'll handle the first part, and Gary, you can jump in on the back end on the second question. So the team is working really well together, and we're shipping products out faster. We gave them a goal to launch weekly subscriptions, boost optimization and relationship intent in Q3. And they accomplished all of that. Now we're in the process of crystallizing our product plans for 2023. I'm happy with how that's going, and we'll have more specifics to share in our next earnings call. But I do expect to name a CEO at Tinder. We have a really strong leadership team in place, and I want to make sure that the new CEO is going to work really well with each of them. We're looking for someone with deep consumer product expertise, who can hit the ground running and further galvanize the team around a long-term vision. It's important for us to find someone that will be at Tinder for a long time. So we want to spend the right amount of time doing the diligence and finding the right leader. In the meantime, I'm happy to stay as interim CEO. Gary, do you want to handle the second part?
Gary Swidler:
Yes. Obviously, we're part way through the quarter in Q4. And so visibility into Q4 is a lot easier than visibility into 2023. And we have seen deterioration in the last few weeks. It's a -- it's not broad-based. It's primarily on a la carte at Tinder. There is -- it is existing in some other pockets like our Plenty of Fish business as well. And look, it's hard to tell exactly how much macro weakness we're seeing across the portfolio. But the thing that we're particularly focused on is the weakness on the ALC side at Tinder. I think we've made some reasonable assumptions based on what we're seeing for Q4 that give me confidence in our range that we provided for Q4. Obviously, I don't know how much things are going to deteriorate or not in 2023. And so that's what makes guiding for 2023 more challenging. But right now, the trends that we see do indicate some consumer weakness, and we have factored that in at least into our Q4 outlook. And we've tried to make some best guesses around it for 2023 as a whole as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Alexandra Steiger with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Alexandra Steiger:
I wanted to follow up on Q4 and '23 margins. So given the guidance for slower top line growth at Tinder and your comments around increased marketing investments versus some targeted cost reduction efforts, how should we think about the cadence of adjusted operating income margins from here and over the next few quarters, given the timing of these initiatives?
Gary Swidler:
So you're right, and I said it before, we're investing marketing dollars in the business where we see growth opportunities, Tinder, Hinge, The League, et cetera. And we're offsetting those with reductions in the more Established Brands. The net result of that is that we expect marketing spend next year to be roughly consistent as a percentage of revenue with what we've seen in 2022. And so overall, our goal for next year is to have flat margins for the year, hopefully, do better than that, but that's our target. But you may see small fluctuations quarter-to-quarter depending on the cadence of marketing spend. If we spend on a bigger campaign in Q1, that might have some effect on margins versus if we don't have that in Q2. So you might see margins be plus or minus a little bit year-over-year in each quarter depending on the marketing spend cadence and what's going on from a campaign perspective. Outside of marketing spend, we're going to offset any incremental margin headwinds that exist with improvements elsewhere to hit that goal of at least flat margins. And then you're right, Tinder is a very high-margin asset for us, and we talked about that already. And so improvement in margins and ultimately hitting our long-term margin goal really is dependent on or the factor that Tinder really accelerate its growth and really contribute meaningful growth to us. So that is the #1 job for the company is to really accelerate Tinder growth and get it back to where it's been historically or at least closer to that, which will help us get closer to our overall long-term margin target. The only other thing I'd point out around margins, and we mentioned this in the letter, is that our outlook for margins doesn't assume any relief from the App Stores at all, which we think is the prudent thing to assume at the moment. That being said, the Digital Markets Act went into effect yesterday in the U.K, and we are expecting changes to App Store policies as a result of that. And there's actions in other jurisdiction as well, markets like India, for example. And so we believe that it's likely that we're going to see relief from App Stores in 2023, if not in 2024 at the latest. And so I do think there is upside to our margins as that plays through. But right now, our outlook doesn't contemplate any of that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Just a follow-up on expenses. So I think in the letter, you spoke about accelerating sort of broader cost controls next year. When should we expect to see those sort of initiatives impact the P&L? And could you sort of unpack exactly what those cost controls should look like?
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me take that one as well. When you look at our P&L, a lot of our costs come out of IFBs, which obviously we're nowhere near in control over as well as things like web hosting, AWS, things like that, which are difficult for us to affect. So when you look at what we can control, and we do want to control what we can control in the current environment, marketing and headcount as well as some other operating expense items are things that we really can control and can control costs on those fronts. I just talked in response to Alexandra's question about the marketing spend, where we're increasing it in certain of our businesses. And we're offsetting that with reductions elsewhere to be neutral from a margin perspective. So that's one piece of it. In terms of the headcount, we've actually dramatically slowed our hiring since the middle of this year. And we expect very few, if any, additional hires in 2022, Really only critical hires in growth businesses are the only additional headcount that we would add in 2022. And I think in 2023, the same philosophy will apply, meaning that for growing businesses and really critical hires, we'll make them. But other than that, we're going to be really judicious. So specifically, I'm expecting hiring in Hinge, which is a bright spot for us, a fast-growing business. But I'm not expecting meaningful headcount increases across the company. And to the extent that headcount does lead to incremental margin impact on the negative side, we would need to offset that with reductions in other parts of the business. And so when you think about where those could be, one is just general corporate overhead, things that are nice to have that we can do without or costs that have crept into the business over the last few years that we think we can reduce and pare back on without impacting the performance of the business. And there are some of those. And we've identified those and we're taking action on some of those. So you'll see the impact of that flow through the P&L, if not in the fourth quarter, then certainly as we make the turn into 2023. Also, in our real estate portfolio, obviously, post-COVID, things are not the same from a real estate perspective as they were pre-COVID. And to the extent it makes sense to adjust our real estate footprint, we're looking at doing so. So corporate overhead, corporate costs generally as well as real estate are places that we're targeting for reductions. And we can hopefully use some of that to reinvest in the businesses, in new growth initiatives, in marketing at Tinder and Hinge and so forth. And so that's part of our plan. And look, I would just say, we think these are the responsible things to do. There's a lot of macro headwinds out there that are very difficult to predict. And so we would rather be proactive on this front. And if the environment next year is not as bad as we are anticipating, then the business will improve from a profitability standpoint. So that's the approach that we're taking. And we're also mindful that the trajectory of certain of our businesses is growth challenged, and we also have to factor in that we need to be more disciplined on costs as a result of the growth challenges in some of our businesses. So I just want to kind of conclude by saying we have guiding principles around this. We're making targeted investments in businesses that we think can grow
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. We feel like we've made a lot of great progress in a short amount of time. We look forward to sharing more with you during our next earnings call. Thanks so much.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Tanny Shelburne:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. They will make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Tanny. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining today's call. This is my first earnings call as Match Group's CEO and I want to start off by thanking everyone at the company for such a warm welcome. I truly believe that love, connections and relationships are the pillars to a happy and fulfilling life. I'm elated to work with a team that's responsible for creating joy through connecting millions of people around the world. I've been on the job for two months and I've been fortunate enough to travel to many of our global offices with Gary and the rest of the management team. At each stop, I've conducted All Hands/Ask Me Anything meetings to convey what I will bring to the table and what I expect from the team in return. As I told my colleagues, I'm passionate about people, culture and product. I promise the teams that I will always be authentic, honest and act with integrity and I expect our employees to bring those same values to work every day. I've been learning as much as possible about our business assessing what's working and what's not and beginning to build our strategy. I'm very impressed by the team's experience and their growth mindset as well as strong financial discipline. This balance will serve us well as we forge ahead. I also want to thank Gary, who's been a great partner during my onboarding. As COO and CFO, he has made key strategic recommendations that we see eye to eye on and we've been able to move quickly and decisively to unlock value across the portfolio and set up the next phase of growth. There is no doubt that there are challenging macroeconomic factors at play. Over the past two and a half years, people have been forced to isolate then adjust to society reopening and I don't believe that behavioral impacts of COVID are fully understood yet. But what I do know is that human real-world connections are imperative and our apps are the best way to create those connections. It's our responsibility to innovate and provide the best experiences and that creates the real opportunity for our business. In our shareholder letter, I was able to share my initial observations about the business, market opportunity and our portfolio of products. I also touched upon my management style, noting that we have to be decisive and set up the right teams with long-term growth in mind. In two months, we've made immediate steps to unlock and maximize Tinder's true long-term potential. Tinder is the go to app in the industry available in 190 countries in over 40 languages. It is a global phenomenon that has transformed dating culture in Western markets over the past 10 years and it's still early in its journey in non-Western markets. I believe that innovating Tinder will only enhance its ability to continue to transform the dating experience for the next generation of singles around the world. With the current Tinder CEO stepping down, I've put a new leadership team in place, who will report directly to me while I lead the recruiting efforts for a new CEO. This team has a great working dynamic that's already apparent and brings proven expertise to Tinder's next phase of growth. They're passionate strategic leaders, who are also able to get into the trenches experiment lead by example and get things done. I'm confident that this new team will work well together to build product and enhancements and innovation. But I do want to acknowledge that there have been some misfires and turnover on the team that have led to delays in product and execution in the first half of the year. I believe that our new team can write that ship, but it will take some time to execute and build momentum. I've been impressed by the diversified dating experiences throughout the portfolio. As part of Match Group, Hinge has been a breakout star. The team has executed on building a strong brand including their design to be deleted campaign that resonates with our user base. They have elegant differentiated product that I believe will be just as successful in international markets as they have been in English speaking ones. While our other brands continue to face their own challenges, I'm working closely with the teams to ensure that we're organized to tackle them and set up the brands for long-term success. While the Hyperconnect acquisition has not gone to plan in our first year, we finalized the acquisition during lockdowns. My trip to Korea last month was the first time the teams were able to sit down together since we completed the deal. Their core products have struggled with increased competition and adjusting to the elimination of IDFA, but the team is strong and I've been impressed by the entrepreneurial spirit and innovation. The Hyperconnect team has built technologies that have been introduced in our products around the world. This collaboration is something that I expect to see more of across our teams. We continue to increase adoption and acceptance of our products in markets like Japan. We have a team on the ground ensuring our two products, Tinder and Pairs, have marketing messages that are resonating with our users. In our other established brands, we are ensuring rightsizing marketing spend to ensure long-term profitability. And when we think about new opportunities and demographics to serve, we found a great business in The League. Their Founder and CEO, Amanda Bradford, has built a brand that people love and continue to return to. We've been impressed by the League’s user base, as they are willing to pay significant premiums for this service. From my experience, product innovation always drives user adoption and engagement. We have great products, but I want to speed up product delivery bring new dynamic features to life and set big audacious goals. At Tinder we need some time to regain product momentum. I'm committed to product innovation that will give our users more reasons to come back more often and for new singles to sign up and start dating. This is only my 63rd day on the job, but over the next few months, I'll be building out more plans as Gary and I continue to work with the teams. And on future calls, I will share more details about our developing strategy. The teens understanding and execution on building subscription models is unparalleled. I bring expertise on the à la carte side of the business, which will be a great compliment to our products. We will push our teams to innovate, collaborate, and drive more growth on our platforms in the future. I bet on people and feel great about the team's ability to transform the way people connect with others around the world. Together, I expect we will drive long-term shareholder value, be decisive and always strive to win. And with that, I'll turn it over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, BK. And hello everyone. I'm excited for my and BK's first call together. There is a lot to cover this quarter, so I'm going to get right into it. We had a solid Q2 with total revenue of $795 million up 12% year-over-year. The Q2 FX headwinds were severe as our revenue would have been $842 million up 19% year-over-year on an FX neutral basis. The FX impact in Q2 was $13 million worse than what we expected when we provided our Q2 outlook on our May earnings call. Our direct revenue grew 12% year-over-year. It grew 9% year-over-year in the Americas with strength at Tinder, Hinge, BLK and CHISPA, coupled with declines at the established brands. It grew 6% year-over-year in Europe, but 19% on an FX neutral basis. Europe continues to be impacted by the war Ukraine as well. Direct revenue grew 32% in APAC and other 49% on an FX neutral basis, driven by Hyperconnect. Total payers were 16.4 million, an increase of 10% from the prior year quarter. Payers were up 4% year-over-year in the Americas, 5% in Europe and 32% in APAC and other, which was aided by the acquisition of Hyperconnect. Tinder payer editions came in stronger than we had expected, while our established brands including Match and Match Affinity brands, Meetic, OkCupid and PlentyOfFish, saw year-over-year payer declines of over 10% in aggregate. RPP was up 3% year-over-year to $15.86 cents in Q2. RPP was up 5% in the Americas, reflecting higher average rates for subscriptions increased average alacarte purchases at Tinder and Hinge. RPP was up 1% in Europe where contributions from Tinder and Hyperconnect were partially offset by the strength of the dollar compared to the Euro and the British pound. RPP was flat in APAC and other, where contributions from Hyperconnect were offset by the strength of the dollar relative to the Yen and Lira. On an FX neutral basis, RPP was up 9% company wide and 13% in both Europe, and APAC and other. Tinder performed well in the quarter, delivering direct revenue of $449 million, up 13% year-over-year, 20% on an FX neutral basis. Tinder had Payers growth of 14% year-over-year adding 1.3 million Payers to 10.9 million and a 1% RPP decline year-over-year in the quarter, which again shows the impact of FX. Tinder RPP was up 5% on an FX neutral basis. All other brands grew direct revenue 12% year-over-year in Q2 driven by 10% RPP growth and 2% payers growth. Hinge, BLK and CHISPA continued to drive the growth. Some of the pressure on our established brands, payers and direct revenue in the quarter was attributable to difficulties finding marketing opportunities that met our ROI thresholds. There were a couple of other specific trends as well. At PlentyOfFish, which tends to serve a lower income demographic, users had benefited from COVID-related government stimulus in Q2 2021, but we saw weaker payer in RPP trends in Q2 2022, as the benefits of the stimulus abated. The Match brand has some lingering impacts from its new business model. And Meetic saw some conversion softness. In Asia, Hyperconnect contributed as we expected in Q2, but its revenue was heavily impacted by FX, especially against the Turkish Lira and the Japanese yen, as well as by typical Ramadan related seasonality. Pairsin Japan saw a burst of new user strength after COVID restrictions were lifted, but only a modest sustained improvement in revenue and other trends in Q2. Indirect revenue was $14 million in the quarter up 7% year-over-year, as we continue to see strong demand for ads in our products and rates increased year-over-year. We had a $10 million operating loss in Q2 as the intangibles primarily related to the Azar and Hakuna trade names were impaired by $217 million or roughly half the intangibles there were attributed to them at the time of the acquisition. The impairment stems from a lower financial outlook for the two apps, including FX impacts in certain of Hyperconnect’s key markets, as well as the use of higher discount rates in the DCF calculations, given rising interest rates generally. Adjusted operating income group 9% year-over-year to 286 million representing a margin of 36%. Overall expenses, including SBC expense grew 62% year-over-year in Q2, but were only up 9% excluding Hyperconnect. Excluding the impact of Hyperconnect cost of revenue grew 14% year-over-year, primarily due to higher App Store fees, including the initial $5 million amount placed into escrow related to the Google litigation. Cost of revenue represented 29% of total revenue. Sales and marketing spend excluding Hyperconnect decreased $13 million or 10% year-over-year, the second straight quarter where we saw year-over-year reduction as we continue to reduce marketing spend at our more established brands and to show ROI discipline overall. Sales and marketing spend was down 3 points year-over-year as a percentage of total revenue to 15%. For the first half of the year, sales and marketing spend X Hyperconnect declined $21 million year-over-year. G&A expense, excluding Hyperconnect rose $3 million or 3% year-over-year. G&A comprised 14% of revenue unchanged from the prior year. The increase in G&A expense reflects lower legal fees and an increase in travel expenses as we continue to return to a more normal cadence of business travel. Product development cost excluding Hyperconnect grew 51% year-over-year and were 10% of revenue, as we increased headcount particularly at Tinder and Hinge in a highly competitive labor market. Our gross leverage declined to 3.5 times trailing adjusted operating income, and our net leverage was 3 times at the end of Q2. These leverage levels reflect the payment of $441 million related to the settlement of the former Tinder employee lawsuits and arbitrations. Those matters are now resolved. We ended the quarter with $473 million of cash, cash equivalent and short-term investments on hand. We deployed approximately $216 million in Q2 to buy-back approximately 3 million of our shares at [indiscernible] of just over $73 per share on a trade date basis. We currently have approximately 9.3 million shares remaining under our buyback authorization. As we stated in the letter, there are a number of key factors affecting our performance and outlook. The first is FX, which significantly affected the first half of the year and we expect will impact the second half of the year as well. We use the forward curve to provide our outlook and the curve has consistently underestimated the dollar strength this year, which is largely why we have been behind our outlooks for Q1 and Q2. Leaving aside FX impacts it's become clear that COVID created some unusual trends in our business. The established brands benefited from a less competitive marketing environment in the early days of COVID, which drove incremental growth. And their users also benefited from savings and government stimulus payments, which buttress monetization. As these factors have abated these businesses once again face growth challenges. Tinder experienced a very strong second half of 2021 as people began to socialize more after being vaccinated. Additionally Tinder made several beneficial paywall and other optimizations in Q3 2021, which drove record sequential payer editions and strong revenue in that quarter. We're now lapping these challenging comps. Moreover some of the Tinder product initiatives and optimizations that we've been counting on for revenue growth in the second half of 2022 are not delivering as we'd expected and we're delaying some launches. Our PlentyOfFish live streaming business is showing a slowdown in revenue growth after a period of strength in part driven by stimulus induced spending. And we haven't seen a sustained rebound in performance in Japan where data's remain reluctant and COVID cases continue to rise. Taken together these factors lead us to expect relatively muted revenue growth for the second half of 2022. On the cost side, we're feeling the financial impacts of the tight labor market, which caused us to raise compensation levels as well as a marketing environment, which has not yet fully adjusted to the economic realities. As such we've significantly slowed our hiring and are sticking to our ROI discipline in our marketing spend, even at the expense of some revenue growth. The App Store fees also continue to be a headwind. App Store fees including the escrow amount related to the Google Play Store were 19.5% of our revenues in Q2 2022, up over 2 points from Q1 2020. We remain optimistic that the App Stores will be required to adjust their policies as the DMA in Europe goes into effect in 2023, and we prevail in our lawsuit against Google in the U.S., which should create a much fair apt ecosystem for all. For Q3, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $790 million to $800 million essentially flat year-over-year. We anticipate over $60 million of year-over-year FX headwinds in Q3, meaning that total revenue growth would be over 8 points higher on an FX neutral basis. We expect Tinder's direct revenue to the up mid-single-digits, low-teens on an FX neutral basis in Q3 while all other brands direct revenue is expected to be down mid-single-digits, but low-single-digits on an FX neutral basis. We expect Hinge, BLK and Chispa will continue to drive the growth, helping offset declines at the established brands. We expect adjusted operating income of $255 million to $260 million in Q3 representing margins of about 32% at the midpoint of the ranges. We expect lower year-over-year sales and marketing spend, a much lower year-over-year growth rate in product and development than in Q2 2022 and a continued increase in App Store fees. The lower than expected revenue contribution from Tinder, which is our highest margin business has a meaningful negative effect on our overall company margins. For the full year, we're now estimating $195 million of year-over-year FX impacts, which is $72 million more than in our last earnings call and $163 million more than when we first gave our thoughts about 2022 back in November of 2021. We estimate FX is causing a 6-point reduction in year-over-year revenue growth for full year 2022, two points worse than at the time of our last earnings call. For Q4, we expect limited improvement in our year-over-year top-line growth rate and modest improvement in AOI margins compared to Q3. While we expect the second half of the year to be below our growth targets, we believe the company remains positioned to deliver accelerating revenue growth as we move through 2023, driven by improved product execution at Tinder. The biggest unknown we face relates to the macroeconomic environment and its impact on our business. The consumer is facing significant pressure from rising gas and food prices, constraining purchasing power. Our product is a small purchase and one that leads to happiness. So consumers are low to stop or reduce it. If the economy continues to worsen, we expect our business to remain resilient, but we may see modest effects at some of our brands, particularly those that cater to lower income consumers. We believe subscriptions, which constitute the vast majority of our revenue, will remain sticky, but it's possible consumers will pull back modestly on a la carte purchases, which tend to be more discretionary. We expect our Hinge business to remain largely immune from overall consumer spending pullbacks given its more affluent user base and have seen no impact to date. We'll continue to monitor these trends and provide an update on our next earnings call. Our category provides ample runway for growth, which we can achieve by growing users and by increasing payer penetration and RPP. It is up to us to execute on the opportunities. The recent changes we've made at Tinder should better position us to perform the way we have historically. While the business is facing some temporary challenges, we will remain disciplined on costs, especially in marketing and hiring. Our longer-term prospects remain bright and our goal remains to deliver strong, consistent growth and profitability for our shareholders. We believe our combination of growth and profitability as well as our free cash flow generation is one that few other companies can achieve. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay, thank you. BK, let me try a question on Tinder, please. So what are you looking for in the new Tinder CEO? And why has there been this much turnover in CEOs? Thanks.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Shweta, for the question. First of all, I wasn't expecting to have to manage a CEO transition so early in my tenure, and I know it's not ideal to have two Tinder CEOs in two years. But with Renate's departure, I wanted to act quickly and be decisive and put in a team that I felt confident in. We've assembled a team of all stars from Tinder and Match Group, and we also brought in Mark as CPO, who I've known for over 15 years. Faye is moving into a newly formed position as COO of Tinder and will improve execution across the entire organization. Tom has done a great job leading engineering for the last five years at Tinder and we're delighted that he is going to continue to lead our engineering teams. Melissa is an award-winning CMO, who's done great things at OkCupid, and we're really happy that she is bringing her expertise to our biggest business. And Mark joined Tinder one week after I joined Match Group, and he is my top choice to lead product as I've worked with him at Electronic Arts and have admired his accomplishments leading product teams. This team in place is already working really well together and driving the business forward. And we think the new CEO, once in place, is going to really enjoy working with this strong team. When it comes to finding the new CEO, first and foremost, I want to break the cycle of short-tenured leaders at Tinder. I want someone who's experienced, creative leader that inspires and motivates team, but is also aligned with our growth vision for the business. I will be personally leading this search. But in the meantime, I'm really excited to immerse myself in Los Angeles with the Tinder team. With leadership change comes tremendous opportunity and I really look forward to taking his team and Tinder to the next level of growth.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay, thanks BK.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Great. Thanks for the question. Sticking with Tinder, in the shareholder letter in the prepared remarks, you talked a lot about disappointing execution. So our question is, could you just talk about what went wrong at Tinder? And how quickly you think it can be turned around? Thank you.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks so much, Cory, for the question. Tinder did not deliver on its product road map for the first half of the year. And execution on a number of initiatives have been delayed that we were counting on for growth in Q3 and Q4. Typically, Tinder works on big initiatives on the first half of the year that materialize in payer and revenue growth in the second half of the year, but that didn't happen this time around. So we don't expect the same revenue bump that we typically see. As an example, a lot of time was building – was spent building Explore. It's a strong gateway with high engagement, but we haven't succeeded yet on innovating the user experience and then also building monetization features to maximize its potential. I do believe that there is a lot of market opportunity and great product ideas at Tinder, but it's all about execution. I think now with the new team in place, I feel confident that we will deliver on the product road map, and it gives me a lot of optimism that this is all fixable and a short-term problem for Tinder.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great, thanks. On the 3Q revenue guide, maybe this one for Gary, can you provide kind of more color on the puts and takes of the 3Q revenue guide and also thoughts on 4Q revenue growth and your confidence in the expected revenue reacceleration in 2023? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure, John. I'm happy to take it. Thanks for the question. Here's the way that I kind of think about the back half for the year generally, Q3 and Q4, which is between what we expect to deliver now for the back half of the year and versus what would have resulted in our hitting our recent guidance, which was low end of the 15% to 20% range for 2022. There's a gap there, and it really results from three areas. The first, which is about a third of the gap, is from additional FX headwinds. We talked a lot in the prepared remarks about how much that has gotten more severe and so about a third of the gap comes from that. Of the rest, about half of the rest or one third of the total comes from what BK just talked about, which is Tinder missed execution and the lack of delivery of initiatives, not having hit product road map and delivered as we expected in the first half of the year. And the other piece comes from a variety of other factors across the business
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Yes, you're welcome.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Alexandra Steiger with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Alexandra Steiger:
Great, thank you for taking my questions. Two on Hinge, if I can. So despite the accelerated launch time line, you reiterated $300 million in revenue contribution for this year. Could you maybe help us understand how you think about the monetization ramp into the second half of this year and also in terms of revenue growth next year given the faster rollout? And then second, could you maybe give us a sense of like where we sit in terms of Hinge margin trajectory and the cadence of investments going forward? Thank you so much.
Bernard Kim:
Hinge has been very successful in many markets already, and we've created great user experience that intentions singles love. We've seen it excel in marketing and product development, driven by Hinge's awesome team and culture, coupled with Match's expertise. Hinge has great momentum, and I see two vectors for accelerating Hinge's growth. One, there's still ample runway on monetization and user growth in core markets as we continue to roll out features and marketing campaigns to drive this growth. For example, we're really excited about the next monetization feature, which is a premium subscription tier. Second is capitalizing on product market fit that Hinge has created and translating that into as many markets as fast as we can. This will help accelerated international expansion, which will drive stronger revenue growth in 2023 and beyond. I think the combination of these two growth opportunities set up Hinge for multiple years of strong revenue growth.
Gary Swidler:
And let me jump in on the margin question. I want to point out a couple of things as it relates to Hinge and margins. The first thing is, while we are being very judicious and cautious about marketing spend across the company as well as on hiring now and going forward, we recognize that Hinge is the brightest spot in the portfolio. And it is our strongest growth business. It's a very important business to us. And we are going to continue to invest at the right levels in that business, both on the marketing side as well as in product and development and people. So we're being judicious, but we're being thoughtful. And we want to make sure Hinge has the resources it needs to continue on its growth trajectory. And I don't see issues there in terms of the way we are treating expenses as relates to marketing or headcount. I think Hinge has the resources to continue to grow exactly as we're planning for it to grow. So I want to make sure people understand the nuances there and the distinctions between business that are struggling more to grow, where we're going to be more judicious on marketing and hiring versus a business like Hinge, which is growing strongly. And we're investing in. As far as what kind of margins we can achieve, I think, that we are still very smart and efficient with our marketing spend. We are spending where we see traction in the business, like now in a market like Germany, we see the organic traction, we're investing into it with marketing spend. That has been our playbook and continues to be our playbook at Hinge. And we think that Hinge is already in position to achieve margins that are close to the company levels of margins. And we think that that's what Hinge can achieve over time. And so, we don't think Hinge will be a drag on our margins. We think that Hinge will contribute nicely to the overall company margins and still grow at the levels that we've been talking about as we've been providing our outlook, which, as we say, is 50% for this year and we think we'll be very strong into 2023 as well. So hopefully that answers your questions.
Alexandra Steiger:
Yes. Thank you so much.
Bernard Kim:
And we go to the next one, please operator.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Good morning. Thank you for the question. So in the past you've been a mid-teen to sort of high-teens revenue growth company. I understood that there is some volatility in 2022, given the leadership changes and the challenges around sort of the product rollout. But when we look to 2023, how should we be thinking about the growth algorithm? And what gives you the confidence in returning to more meaningful growth? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me jump in and take that and thanks for the question. And as I talked about a little bit with the answer to John's question as well, about 2023, so I'll try to weave that together. First of all, I want to say off the bat, we remain confident that this business can return to mid to high teens, revenue growth. There is a lot of opportunity for us and it really comes down to execution. And right now we didn't execute as we needed to and as expected to in the first part of the year. So we need a few quarters to rebuild the momentum in the business. And as BK has talked about extensively in particular, we need a few quarters to get the Tinder team, to improve their overall execution and deliver on their product roadmap. And so, as you know as that takes place, we need to build back into stronger and stronger growth. And I think that will happen as we move into and then through 2023 at a measured pace in terms of improving the growth. Obviously our goal is to deliver more than that, but our goal is to at least deliver strong and improving growth as we move through the quarters starting in 2023. We will provide more details and specifics on what, I think, we can deliver for 2023 in the upcoming calls as is our custom. So we'll give you a better sense of what exactly the cadence is going to be like and what levels we think we can get to. But our goal is to get back to where we have been. We think there's opportunity to do that. And as long as we execute and in particular, the Tinder team executes on that, we do think we will get there.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Lauren Schenk:
Great. I wanted to ask about Tinder Coins. What aspects of that product testing were disappointing relative to your expectations? And I'm curious as to why that sounds like it's the primary driver of the week or second half outlook at Tinder. I think previously you said there wasn't much if any benefit from those new products in the back half to kind of bridge the gap there. And then just lastly, on the shorter term subscription packages that the day pass, weekly pass. Any other commentary there? Thanks so much.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, I can take that one. Lauren thanks for the great questions. I feel confident that coins and virtual goods are a compelling offering in Tinder and can lead to significant monetization of power users, who I believe, are currently under monetized. Mark and I have spent most of our career in gaming, focusing on building such ecosystems, and we bring this expertise to the table. I love the idea of virtual goods and currency in Tinder. But I believe it hasn't been approached in a completely logical way. For instance, my experience in gaming demand for virtual goods and collectibles are rolled out first and then you launch the currency to get these items later. While it's frustrating to pause the efforts, I think, it's super important that Mark and I deliver the right value proposition so this can be a long term revenue stream. In terms of your question around shorter term subscription packages, historically Match Group has not offered these, but we are going to start testing a variety of short term subscriptions at different price points to see what works. We plan our initial rollout of these programs this upcoming fall.
Gary Swidler:
And then maybe I can just jump in on the second half outlook. I want to clarify something that you said, which is that implies, we are counting on coins or even virtual goods for the second half delivery of our revenue targets. And that isn't the case. There wasn't much, if anything, baked into the second half outlook around coins and virtual goods. So the fact that we're delaying that is not the driver of the shortfall versus our expectations for the second half. But there were a series of other less keynote kind of initiatives and optimizations that were expected in the first half of 2022 to help us deliver the second half revenue and also more initiatives in the back half of the year to help deliver the second half revenue. And it's on that series of initiatives kind of less sexy, less notable initiatives, but still very important initiatives that really has not taken place. And it explains why changes in the team at Tinder have been made to try to make sure that we deliver more fully on the initiatives and optimizations that we have in our plans. And so it's that kind of shortfall and delay that's really causing the issue. I think if you look back where we were in May, we still believe that we were going to deliver those initiatives. And right now, I think, our confidence in that happening in the back half of the year has come down, we've made the changes and we think we'll be positioned to have more momentum as we get out of 2022 and into 2023. And if you look back into last year, you'll note that we had a very strong performance in Q3 and Q4 as I called out. And the reason for that is we did deliver on significant initiatives, not particularly massive initiatives, but a series of important initiatives and optimizations in the early part of the year, as well as in Q3. And I talked about in the remarks and that really propelled strong payer additions in Q3 and into Q4 and strong revenue growth that materialized in 2021 and it hasn't materialized in 2022. And we need to deliver on those kinds of initiatives and product improvements to drive the revenue growth and the team at Tinder needs to do that. And we think we'll now be positioned to do that again.
Lauren Schenk:
Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. Maybe kind of a bigger picture question. So, far this earning season, we're seeing companies that have more affluent customer bases perform better in the quarter and with their third quarter outlooks. I think historically online dating has been perceived as recession resistant, kind of like alcohol and tobacco. I guess BK kind of what's your perspective on this? And I guess as you're thinking about are the headwinds that you are facing more self-inflicted or do you think that there is aspects of the vertical that are now mature enough, perhaps that younger users who have less discretionary income might cut back in spending during recession or some of the inflationary pressure we're seeing? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Hey, Jason why don't I jump in and try to take this one? As I said in my remarks, I think, as a category, we believe that dating is readily resilient to economic downturns. And we expect our business would be minimally impacted in a downturn as well. I think as you rightly point out, if there were any impact, it would be at the brands that serve lower income consumers with less discretionary income. We wouldn't expect to see, for example, effect at our business like Hinge, which tends to have a much more affluent customer. And so far at Hinge, we definitely have not seen any impact from the overall macroeconomic environment. We also think that the subscription nature of our business is more sticky and does provide us with some insulation from an economic downturn. But on the other hand, there is some à la carte revenue and that's more discretionary and probably would be at more, at more risk in a downturn. So, well, right now we don't see any real impacts to our business for macroeconomic factors. We are watching for them closely. It's something we want to monitor as we get out of the year, because we do think there are a lot of crosswinds going on globally. But I would say that I don't see much downside to our 2022, even if things did continue to deteriorate. I think we've kind of assumed the right level of potential risk there as well in our 2022 outlook. So we'll see what materialize in the next six months. But I think that your view of kind of the resiliency of our business, the way that affluent consumers in particular are more insulated, the risk more on the people with lower income, more discretionary spending, I think, the right way to think about our business.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Youssef Squali with Truist. Please go ahead.
Youssef Squali:
Great. Thank you very much. This is actually a follow-up question to the one that was just asked. So BK, I think, you said in the letter that people's willingness to try online dating for the first time, hasn't yet returned to pre-pandemic level. And this is really at a time when our experiences are taken budgets over from things like retail, et cetera. So what again, what kind of gives you the confidence that this is not structurally nature, particularly when it comes to Tinder, maybe maturing and if it's not just what products are you most excited about that you think can really start moving the needle and cause growth re-accelerate in 2023 as you guys were talking about? Thanks.
Bernard Kim:
Thanks, Youssef for the great question. Let me hit this like right on. I do not believe that the category is saturated. I wouldn't have taken this job if I thought it was. As we shared in the letter more than half of singles in developed markets, such as U.S. and Western Europe have not even tried dating apps. So – and there's even a greater opportunity in APAC and the rest of the world. We have just demonstrated that product innovation leads to product adoption, which drives overall category growth. It's important to continue to innovate on our products in order to introduce online dating to new users. A great example is at hinge, it has great user momentum and has strong top of funnel growth directly driven by exciting new features, such as voice prompts. Tinder has not seen that same level of product innovation recently, but we feel like we have the right marketing and product teams in place now to innovate and drive its next level of growth.
Youssef Squali:
Okay. Thank you. Best of luck.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mario Lu with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Mario Lu:
Great. Thanks for taking the question. So have one on the third quarter margins guidance, it looks like you're guiding to a 4 point year-on-year decline for EBITDA margins at the midpoint. So Gary, you touched upon this earlier, but can you help break down further? How much of that in your compression is from the higher App Store fees versus product development spend? And then secondly, when should we expect product development to de-leverage again? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. I'm happy to take it. Let me just make sure that everyone understands kind of our outlook and there's clarity around that. So we're basically saying at the midpoint of the ranges in Q3, there'd be about 32% AOI margins, and then we're expecting some modest improvement from there, which I think you could read as 100 basis points to 150 basis points of sequential improvement in Q4. In terms of the overall year-over-year change in the margin drivers, let me see if I can kind of do this off the top of my head. And so I would say App Store fees are probably a point and a half of headwinds. So there's still a meaningful headwind on year-over-year margins in Q3 and probably headcount is maybe 2.5 points of headwind. So you have 4 points of headwind from the App Stores and the headcount moves that we've made. You probably get about a point of benefit from sales and marketing. On the other hand and I would say there's probably some small other effects from other items and that's probably a little bit of a headwind, so I probably am around 3.5 or so of year-over-year decline, so that probably rounds to your 4%. But I think it's primarily the head count and the App Store fees with some offset from the lower marketing spend. In terms of your second question, I don't expect there to be significant leverage on the product development line in the upcoming quarters, but I do think that as we turn the corner into 2023, we'll start to see the effects of the pullbacks and hiring that we're making. And also we'll start to see stronger revenue growth, stronger revenue generation from Tinder in particular as the new team really starts to accelerate and build momentum, and that will help drive momentum on the product development side as well as should help overall company margins because as I mentioned in my remarks, the fact that Tinder which is a very high margin business is not contributing as it has been, does have a significant effect on the overall company margin. So getting Tinder going is important not only from a revenue growth perspective, but also from a margin improvement, margin acceleration perspective. So it is the key, it's the reasons we've made the changes we are driving to, and I think we have optimism as we turn the corner into 2023 on all those aspects of the business.
Mario Lu:
Great. Thanks Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Sure.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Good morning, Gary. You bought back 3 million shares in the quarter. You said you're expecting the increase in share repurchases. Can you just say what that implies relative to, are you going to take a breather on M&A? And secondarily, can you just follow up on Japan; it feels like as your second largest market you're not seeing that open to the magnitude you'd like. What if you have the crystal ball, what do you think needs to happen and ultimately kind of when do you feel like that gets back to more normal?
Gary Swidler:
Okay. So let me – I'll take both of them. Let me take the second one first, because I have a tendency to forget them if I don't do it that way. In Japan I think the thing that's important to understand is that they really put a lot of restrictions into place in that market. Five states of emergency over a period of a year or so and you have a conservative culture, I think still kind of a reluctant dating culture still getting used to dating apps. And I think that has frozen their behavior to a large extent, and so what we did see some initial improvement once the restrictions were lifted, that was probably people who had pent up demand, who were kind of eager and wanted to get out there and were waiting for the restrictions to lift. So you saw a little bit of a bump, a little bit of improvement out of the gate, but then there was no follow on from that. And that is kind of the case today, unfortunately in that market you also have COVID rising again which has only made people again conservative in their behavior. So I think it's going to take a few quarters more to normalize in Japan. I think all the macro trends that have always made that a good market for us, a low marriage rate, hard to find your partner in that market. I think are all still there, but some of this needs to normalize. And I think as BK said in his remarks, we haven't quite seen a full return to normal behavior. And I don't think we have a full understanding in every market of kind of the impact of COVID on people's behaviors. So Japan, I think is a really important case study and given how severely they took their response to COVID, it's going to take some time for it to bounce back. And I think that's where we're expecting in our outlook, and I think that's the right way to look at it based on everything we see now. Obviously we're hoping it bounces back faster. We will do everything we can to try to make that happen. But I think that that is what we're dealing with in the Japan market. In terms of kind of buybacks and M&A, I want to point out in-dating in particular we think we've done a lot of good acquisitions. If you look at Hinge in particular, it's a home run acquisition, just a phenomenal acquisition and there's much more we can do with that business. And if you go prior to Hinge, you look at PlentyOfFish acquisition. You look at the Pairs acquisition in Japan despite the recent trends in that market, those have been very, very strong acquisitions for us as well. And we're very optimistic about The League, which is the most recent acquisition we've made in the dating space. So if we're able to find more compelling targets in the dating space, we absolutely would like to continue to act on them and we won't hesitate to do so. We have the financial flexibility to do them, so there's no issues there. By contrast when you look at the acquisition that we made outside of dating, it hasn't gone the way we would have hoped. We are working on it. We think the team is still fantastic. There's more we can do with that business, but there's no denying that that acquisition of Hyperconnect has not worked out the way we had hoped at least in the first year. And so the bar has been raised around non-dating acquisitions. That's not to say that we wouldn't do them, but we need to be more, more convinced in both the growth that can be derived from those kinds of acquisitions, as well as the profitability levels. And we need to see a clear path to profitability if not immediate profitability. So I think the standards will be higher for an acquisition outside of dating. So that's kind of how we think about our overall acquisition strategy and it's something that BK and I have spent time chatting about, and we will continue to refine or thinking around kind of M&A, because it is a core element to our toolbox and something that we have been good at. All that being said right now the way we look at it, we generate a lot of excess capital, probably $1 billion or so a year, maybe a little bit more, maybe a little bit less, but that's a good number to think about. And so we need to figure out what to do with that capital and use it in the most effective way. And right now, given the market dislocation and where our stock price is, betting on ourselves is our best bet. It's our highest returning bet that we can make. And we're going to continue to do that aggressively with our excess capital. And we'll always be dynamic in this. This is a fluid set of decisions, M&A, buyback shares, whatever makes sense. We constantly discuss this internally with our Board and we want to maintain that flexibility. But in the environment that we're operating in at the moment, we think that betting on ourselves is absolutely the right thing to do. We did it in the second quarter and we expect to continue to do that in the third quarter as well. So hopefully that answers your two questions. I know we're getting a little bit close to time, so why don't I turn it over to BK for a couple of closing remarks?
Bernard Kim:
Thanks Gary. Before we close the call, I want to thank the employees, the board and our investors for trusting me with this opportunity. There's so much potential and runway ahead. I will work tirelessly to push the business forward. And as a vote of confidence, I plan on buying $1 million worth of Match Group's shares in the open market tomorrow. I'm committed to building long-term shareholder value, and I'm really looking forward to speaking with you again in November. Thank you all.
Operator:
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]. We will be facilitating a question-and-answer session towards the end of today’s call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Bill Archer, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Development.
Bill Archer:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. This call will be led by CEO, Shar Dubey; and CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. They will make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Shar.
Shar Dubey :
Thank you, Bill. Good morning, and thank you for joining the call today. On our last call in Feb, I made a comment that this past year has been remarkable for Match Group in many ways, even though the broader world has been a bit disorienting at times. And coming out of this first quarter, the world is in a very different place than the beginning of the year. Our business is not immune to the macroeconomic headwinds such as the war in Ukraine, the strengthening U.S. dollar against foreign currencies at levels we haven't seen in a while and lingering variants of COVID-19. And despite it all, our business grew 20% in revenue in the first quarter of 2022 with strong growth across the portfolio. It is this strength in our core business that reminds me what makes our position in the online dating category so unique and resilient. Online dating is not an overnight fad. It is a category and a business model that has built and grown steadily over time. This is not serving a fickle user need. I often say this. If you look at Maslow's hierarchy of human needs, right above food, shelter and security is love and relationship. The need for relationships and dating is not going to go away. The market opportunity for -- ahead for dating is massive. Over 700 million connected singles around the world are eligible to use our products. And only half of the eligible TAM in the Western markets of U.S. and Western Europe have ever tried a dating app. And that number is much lower across the rest of the world. And while we have grown users every year that we have been a public company, there is still so much more to go do. There's really no reason why people who are single shouldn't be using dating products. But people have broken into this category steadily but slowly. Once they try it, though, they not only use multiple apps at a time, that number is around 3.5 on an average in the U.S. today, they also keep coming back when their life circumstances change, and they need us again. So I remain incredibly bullish on the category as a whole, and the opportunities still ahead. Now back to our current business. Even with all the macro uncertainty, it is our job to execute. And by and large, we are on schedule with what we plan to deliver in 2022. Tinder, beyond solid 18% revenue growth in Q1, the team continues to make progress on its product road map whether that is adding new experiences into Explore or innovating on new monetization features. Our 2022 plan for Hinge to expand internationally beyond English-speaking markets remains intact. They will be launching in Germany and DACH markets before the end of the second quarter and a few more markets before the end of the year. And Hyperconnect continues to build momentum, both with its current products and with the integrations its technology is bringing into our portfolio. Finally, we are encouraged to see more and more green shoots around the globe as COVID fears continue to ease. Seeing improvements in markets like Japan coming out of their most recent quasi state of emergency restrictions has us cautiously optimistic about several trends we are seeing. And before I hand it over to Gary to provide more color on the quarter, I want to address the other news. After 16 years of an incredible journey of building this category and this business, I feel privileged to be able to step down from day-to-day operational role and have the time and flexibility to focus on the next chapter of my life, which I'm hoping will be the give back chapter and allows me to do things I've wanted to do for a while but didn't have the time and headspace to. As I said earlier, the opportunity before the company is immense. The vast majority of single people around the world have yet to try dating apps. While Match has steadily grown users, payer penetration and revenue per payers, only a small mid-teens percent of our nearly 100 million active users are payers today. And they pay less than the cost of a cup of coffee a week. There is ample runway for our brands to continue to drive growth across all of these 3 metrics. And there remains a huge value to entry into the category, both in the terms -- both in terms of the amount of trust and safety investment needed, but also the unique characteristics of the network effects of a successful dating pool, where balance of gender, age, other demographics, geography and intent all matter in order to produce successful outcomes for users. And there is no 1 better positioned to continue to capture this important opportunity than us, which brings me to Bernard and why I think he is the right next leader of the company. Bernard has a proven track record as a business, product and people leader with 20 years of experience in mobile entertainment and gaming. Not only was he instrumental in Zynga's turnaround and expansion, he drove player engagement and monetization strategies into one of the best live services in mobile today and helped Zynga's -- grow Zynga's market cap by 4x. He has operated a business that's very similar to ours, multi-brand, multi-platform, global markets, different life cycle brands and has driven growth successfully, both organically as well as some very successful acquisitions. He has dealt with similar challenges as ours from regulations to App Store to talent recruitment. He has a phenomenal reputation, deeply cares about products, people and culture. For the last 6 years, he's been working on the mission of connecting people through games. Now he gets to build on our mission of connecting single people through more fun digital experiences in their quest for dates, love relationships and marriages. I feel very good about the future of this company. With Bernard's energy, fresh thinking and mobile consumer experience, combined with over 70 years of dating category and business experience among the Match Group leaders and brand CEOs we have, I'm ever so excited about the next phase of this company and the category at large. Also, I'm not going anywhere. I will stay on the Board, continue as an advisor to the company, especially to be able to focus on areas of the business I actually love, product, strategy, solving customer problems. Finally, I want to thank all my colleagues at Match Group, Gary and the rest of the management team, the Board and you all for your support through this 16-year journey. I came to this country alone 30 years ago in search of opportunities and a richer set of experiences. This journey has far exceeded all my expectations. Thank you. With that, I will hand over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Shar. I'm disappointed this will be our last earnings call together, but look forward to having BK join the company in time for our next call in early August. Turning to the business. We had a strong Q1 with total revenue of $799 million, up 20% year-over-year, following a 20%-plus year-over-year quarter in Q4 as well. In Q1, the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against a number of global currencies, including the euro and the yen, which led to $26 million of year-over-year FX headwinds, excluding Hyperconnect. On an FX-neutral basis, Q1 total revenue would have been $825 million, up 24% year-over-year. Our direct revenue grew 20% year-over-year. It grew 16% in the Americas, 14% in Europe and 38% in APAC and other. We weathered the effects of the Omicron spike in the Americas and Europe fairly well. We did continue to feel the effects of rising COVID cases in Asia, especially Japan, although we've seen major improvement in that market recently following the lifting of restrictions. European performance was impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which reduced revenue in Russia, Ukraine and several other nearby countries. There was a modest impact on our performance from the war in Q1. We estimate a roughly $10 million negative impact per quarter on our revenue as a result of the invasion moving forward. Total payers were 16.3 million, an increase of 13% from the prior year quarter. Payers were up 7% year-over-year in the Americas, 11% in Europe and 34% in APAC and other, which was aided by the acquisition of Hyperconnect. Tinder payer additions were strong, while some of our more established brands in the Americas detracted from our overall payer growth. RPP was up 6% year-over-year to $16 in Q1. RPP was up a solid 8% in the Americas, 2% in Europe and 3% in APAC and other. The effects of FX are visible in the Europe and APAC RPP numbers. On an FX-neutral basis, RPP would have been up 9% and 10%, respectively, in Europe and APAC and Other. Tinder performed strongly in the quarter, delivering direct revenue of $441 million, up 18% year-over-year. Tinder had payers growth of 17% year-over-year, adding 1.5 million payers to 10.7 million, an RPP growth of 1% year-over-year in the quarter, which again shows the impact of FX. All other brands grew direct revenue 22% year-over-year in Q1 driven by 14% RPP growth and 7% payers growth. Hinge, BLK and Chispa contributed to drive the growth, and Hyperconnect contributed as well. Some of our established brands in the Americas saw pressure on payers in the quarter, a portion of which was attributable to a challenge to find marketing opportunities that met our ROI thresholds. There were a couple of other specific trends as well. At Plenty of Fish, which tends to serve a lower-income demographic, users had benefited from COVID-related government stimulus in Q1 2021, but we saw some relative payer softness in the early goings of 2022. The Match brand saw some payer impacts as it tested a softer paywall model in Q1. This is a short-term headwind that should be long-term beneficial as we refine the new model. Hyperconnect contributed just over $50 million of total revenue in the quarter generally as we expected. The business demonstrated continued improved performance, consistent with the trends we saw at the tail end of last year despite some impact of the Ukraine war on its Turkish business. Hyperconnect's revenue also continued to be significantly impacted by FX, especially against the Turkish lira and the yen. Indirect revenue reached $15 million in the quarter, up 19% year-over-year as the advertising market remains strong. Our brands have become more appealing to advertisers in the current advertising landscape. Q1 operating income grew 10% year-over-year to $208 million for margins of 26%, and adjusted operating income grew 19% year-over-year to $273 million for margins of 34%. Overall expenses, including SBC expense, grew 24% year-over-year in Q1, with about 60% of the total increase resulting from the acquisition of Hyperconnect. Excluding the impact of Hyperconnect, cost of revenue grew 17% year-over-year primarily due to higher App Store fees and represented 28% of total revenue. Sales and marketing spend, excluding Hyperconnect, decreased $8 million year-over-year as we continue to show spending discipline in a relatively frothy marketing environment. And we spent cautiously in markets that did not show sufficient post-COVID recovery momentum. Sales and marketing spend was down 3 points year-over-year as a percentage of total revenue to 18%. G&A expense, excluding Hyperconnect, rose 7% year-over-year. G&A comprised 13% of revenue, consistent with the prior year and was up $6 million year-over-year as we continue to spend on critical initiatives like user safety. Product development costs, excluding Hyperconnect, grew 28% year-over-year and were 10% of revenue, up 1 point as we increased headcount at Tinder and Hinge. Our gross leverage declined to 3.6x trailing adjusted operating income, and our net leverage was 2.7x at the end of Q1. We ended the quarter with $921 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on hand. We still expect to pay $441 million to settle the former Tinder employee litigation and all related claims and arbitrations from cash on hand. Our Board has also authorized a 12.5 million share buyback plan. For Q2, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $800 million to $810 million, which would represent 13% to 14% year-over-year growth. We expect this to be driven by double-digit year-over-year payers growth and year-over-year RPP growth in the single digits despite the continued FX headwinds. We anticipate approximately $35 million of year-over-year FX headwinds in Q2, meaning that total revenue growth would be more than 5 points higher on an FX-neutral basis. This is more than an additional point of year-over-year FX impact than we had expected at our last earnings call. Additionally, the negative impacts of the war in Ukraine are shaving another point of revenue growth. Excluding the effects of FX and of the war, our year-over-year growth outlook would be 19% to 20%. We eliminated age-based pricing discounts at Tinder late in Q1, which will impact Tinder payer growth in Q2, but revenue should be relatively unaffected. Additionally, Tinder payers will be negatively impacted by the loss of payers in Russia and Ukraine. We anticipate about 200,000 fewer payers in Q2 as a result of the age-based pricing change and the war. We expect Q2 RPP growth will be impacted by the continued FX pressures. We expect Hinge will remain on its growth trajectory and deliver strong revenue growth again in Q2. Hinge is on pace to expand into Germany, its first non-English-speaking geography in Q2. We believe that performance at Hyperconnect is improving, but expect that Q2 revenue will be impacted by the Ramadan holiday, which typically impacts Q2 results in many of Hyperconnect's markets in the Middle East. FX headwinds also continue to impact Hyperconnect, especially in Turkey and Japan. We expect adjusted operating income of $285 million to $290 million in Q2, representing margins of about 36% at the midpoint of the ranges. Recall that Hyperconnect reduces our margins by over 2 points. Our Q2 outlook assumes that we implement Google's change in policy to require use of their payment system as of June 1. We estimate a negative impact of $6 million in Q2 though we need to see actual results of implementation of the policy change to be sure of the precise impacts. We are currently evaluating our legal and other options to avoid the significant disruptive effect their policy change will have on our consumers. Taking into account the challenging operating environment, including the FX impact and the war in Ukraine, we now expect to be closer to the bottom end of our previously stated 15% to 20% year-over-year revenue growth range for the full year 2022. We expect a 4-point year-over-year FX impact and a 1 point impact of the war in Ukraine, meaning that growth would be 5 points higher absent those 2 factors. But things have been changing very quickly. At the moment, for the full year, we are estimating approximately $40 million more in year-over-year FX effects than we had at the time of our last earnings call 3 months ago, given the recent record-setting lows of the euro and yen against the U.S. dollar. It is clear there is a lot of uncertainty, the macro negatives but also potential positives, particularly around post-COVID reopening around the globe. This makes forward visibility challenging. Variability has clearly increased, and the trends could change meaningfully again over the next 3 months. We'll update again in August once we see what kind of summer of love we get. Our business serves a fundamental need for human connection. The demand for our products is unwavering and presents ample opportunity for future growth. While the macro environment poses some temporary challenges, our longer-term prospects remain bright. Our growth will continue to be driven by our innovative and broad portfolio of products, which is best in class at providing technologies to enable these important social connections. Moreover, we share knowledge across our portfolio, which enhances our successes and limits mistakes. We're disciplined on costs and very nimble, able to adjust marketing budgets on short notice. As such, we have margins and cash flow that many, if not all our peers, would envy. We've shown an ability to grow consistently and to show strong profitability and cash flow. We're ready for whatever comes next and expect to continue to deliver strong growth and profitability for our shareholders. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets.
Daniel Salmon:
Shar, you spoke, obviously, about some of your personal reasons for making the change and know that you aren't going anywhere either. But could you tell us a little bit more maybe about how long you've been considering this decision and why you think this was the right time to make it? And then second, you mentioned several highlights of Bernard's track record over the past 20 years. But there may be 1 or 2 things that really made him stand out from other candidates in the eyes of the Board that you'd highlight, and any insights into some of the specific things you think he'll be focused on when he takes the reign?
Shar Dubey:
Sure. As you know, I've worn many hats at this company. And when Mandy stepped down, the Board asked me to take the CEO role. It was a unique time for the company. We had just announced the separation from IAC and wanting to become an independent company. At the time, it made sense to me to step up, provide the continuity and help guide the company through that process. But I have told the Board then that I couldn't commit to being a long-term CEO because of where I was in my life and the things that I wanted to do. I want to be able to have a chapter in my life where -- there are things that I care about that I want to make a difference outside of my professional life. Even my CEO employment agreement reflected the fact that I could step down after 18 months. So of course, I took over, and then COVID hit, which none of us were ready for. I am glad I was there to help us navigate through it all. And once we were out of the thick of the COVID crisis, while the Board had hoped I would change my mind and stay longer, they were prepared to work through the succession. So they ran a robust process. They met a diverse set of candidates. And of course, after 16 years, I wasn't going to leave until I believed we found the right successor. And Bernard is that person. He very quickly separated from the pack, and he impressed everyone on the Board. I'm super excited to have him as our next leader. He has -- there are many things the CEO needs, obviously, business acumen, track record of growth, product and technology sense, but also very importantly, people -- a true people leader. And he has the track record. He has the mobile product and consumer experience. He has very much a growth and value creation mindset. And he is a really strong people leader as became evidenced as we talked to people he had worked with and worked for. He also has a very strong instinct for spotting early technology and consumer trends. And he's already experimented with and dug in and studied a lot of the new shifting technologies that are going to be meaningful to our portfolio. Plus, he's operated a very similar business to us, right? It's a multi-brand, multi-platform global markets, including a big Asia presence, brands that are at different stages of growth. And he's dealt with very similar challenges to us. So this is going to be very familiar plus he can bring a lot of his knowledge around unique characteristics of engagement and monetization on the gaming set of products, which would be very valuable for our next vector of growth. And as I said, I'm not going far. I am staying on the Board. I will be able to spend time on parts of the business I love. And given my role as an advisor, we felt it made sense to have Bernard start as soon as he was able to. And so the transition, Bernard officially starts on May 31. And I'm here to help him and the company in any which way I can. So I don't think there is anything to worry about on this front.
Operator:
The next question comes from Alexandra Steiger with Goldman Sachs.
Alexandra Steiger:
Thank you for providing an update on the recent App Store fee developments in the letter. In that context, could you maybe discuss the impact on Match EBITDA outlook if Google actually moves forward with the requirement of mandatory use of Google Play billings by June? It looks like you already included a $6 million headwind in Q2. And I think last quarter, you talked about an incremental $50 million impact for the full year. And then longer term, how do you see the App Store fee debate evolving, given the puts and takes that you've laid out in the letter and also in light of Google's recent announcement to launch a user choice billing later this year?
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Thanks for the question. Why don't I try to take a stab at it and provide a little context of what's going on with Google as well as some of the financial impacts? So it's important to understand that we've had user choice on our -- on many of our platforms and brands for a long time. We maintain direct relationships with our customers that way. And in fact, our customers choose to use our payment systems, sometimes at a 3:1 ratio over the Google Play billing system. And Google forcing a change now really serves their interest of capturing the relationships with the customer. And I think they see a very short window now as they see the wave of regulatory change happening for them to grab that relationship with the customer before the regulatory changes disable them from doing so. Now we absolutely do not want to see this change in policy. But unfortunately, we're takers of the policies that Google puts on its store. We don't at all think the change is justified. We've been talking to Google for months to encourage them to allow us to continue to provide user choice. And yet, despite all the rulings and regulatory actions seeking to outlaw mandatory use of their payment system, they're still deciding to go ahead and require us to eliminate user choice, which we've had for many, many years. In fact, they've chosen to allow an exception to their policy to only one company, Spotify, because it served their purposes with European regulators and enabled them to take a share of Spotify subscription fees, which they had not previously been able to do. But in our case, they've been steadfast in removing our ability to provide user choice. Last week, Epic Games, facing a similar situation, decided to file a lawsuit against Google. We view that as a last resort and not something we take lightly in doing. But at the same time, the clock is ticking towards the June 1 deadline, and we need to do our best to protect our consumers' choice as well as our business. Under no circumstances do we want to see ourselves removed from the Play Store or unable to distribute through the Play Store. In terms of the impact, as we've disclosed, we expect their policy change to lead to an incremental approximately $6 million a month cost to us. So for the 7 months starting June 1, the total would be about $42 million in aggregate this year on top of the approximately $100 million we already expect to pay Google. That $42 million for the 7 months compares to the $50 million for 9 months we had estimated previously if the policy change had started in April. So it's pretty much as we expected. Now we do think that the winds of change are blowing very, very rapidly. And we think sometime late this year or next year, some of the regulations around the world are going to force Google's hand and require them to change their policy. Most notably, the DMA in Europe, which affects the entire European Union and is going to outlaw mandatory IP. So while Google is making this policy change now and requiring us to eliminate user choice, ultimately, we think this is going to be very short-lived. And as the regulations change across the globe to prohibit mandatory IAP, we'll be able to return back to an environment where we have alternatives to their payment system.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mario Lu with Barclays.
Mario Lu :
Congrats on your next chapter, Shar and, welcome, Bernard. So the question is on the full year revenue guidance. You guys lowered it to the bottom of the 15% to 20% range. So I was just wondering if you can help us unpack a little bit. So excluding the negative drag from FX and the war, are there other tough comps to consider in the second half that should offset the macro tailwinds that you guys mentioned such as Japan recovery?
Gary Swidler :
Yes. I mean, I think you absolutely state it correctly. Right now, we're projecting to be close to the bottom end of our previous 15% to 20% revenue growth range. And that really reflects the additional FX and Russia headwinds that we didn't see back in February when we last provided our outlook. And that's going to affect Q2 and Q3 and 4 as well. In terms of your specific question around the second half comps, if you look back on 2021, we had a very strong Q3, and Tinder, in particular, performed very well in Q3. So it's going to be a tougher comp for us growth-wise in Q3 of this year. Q4, on the other hand, presents us an easier comp. And so we expect stronger year-over-year Q4 revenue growth in 2022. I think, though, as you sit here today, there are several puts and takes that will ultimately determine how the second half looks that are a little tougher to predict. For example, our forecast or outlook today assumes that we get back to pre-Omicron levels of activity. And I think right now, we think that, that's where we are. We're back to pre-Omicron levels. But what we don't really know yet is are we going to get back closer to pre-pandemic level of activities back to 2019 kind of levels? And clearly, we're starting to see some positive signs in that direction, including a market like Japan, a very important market for us, where we've really seen significant improvement in user growth since they lifted the restrictions. And so we're expecting that kind of improvement to gradually take hold around the globe. And the question is exactly what levels are we going to get back to. So that's going to affect our performance in the second half of the year. And right now, still a little bit hard to predict exactly where that recovery is going to get to and how quickly. In terms of also our product outlook, Tinder has a very healthy product road map for the rest of the year with a lot of exciting initiatives planned in the back half. And I think that will help offset some of the macro challenges as well. But if you followed us for a while, you know we typically make relatively modest assumptions around the success levels of those initiatives. And we wait to see how they take hold before we predict for their success. And so to the extent some of the initiatives at Tinder in particular or even elsewhere in the company performed better than what we've assumed in our outlook, that would provide additional upside to the growth rates in the back half of the year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc.
Justin Patterson:
Great. Thank you very much and congratulations, Shar, on a great run. I was hoping to stick with just that Tinder product innovation side. I know it's in the letter you've called out testing around some features for female users with a planned launch in the second half. Could you talk about just what you're doing there and how you think that could potentially impact users and monetization over time?
Shar Dubey:
Thank you, Justin. Yes, I can take this. So we've said this before that most of our Tinder revenue features are more appealing to men in terms of the value they provide. And we've been studying this. And as part of our -- and conversion of women on Tinder, in particular, even relative to many of our other platforms is much lower. So we've been testing and designing a set of potential paid features that will help women improve the quality of their experience and matches they get and give them more control over the experience. So these are things that we think they will find women, in particular, will find valuable. And we're hoping to be able to roll these features out as part of a package that's targeted to women later this year. So that's about as much I can go into it, but that's the thinking there of trying to get women conversion to more parity levels to -- relative to other platforms and relative to men on the platform. That's it, right?
Justin Patterson:
Yes.
Operator:
The next question comes from Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.
Cory Carpenter :
It's Cory Carpenter from JPMorgan. Doug is not making a surprise appearance. One question we've been getting a lot is how the online dating category in Match, in particular, may be impacted during the economic slowdown or even recession. Hoping you could talk a bit about what you've seen during prior recessions or periods of economic weakness around user engagement and monetization. And just how -- in general, how you would expect the category to be from a resilience perspective.
Shar Dubey:
Yes, sure. We've looked back at our data back in 2008 and also sort of the early days of COVID as proxies for what happens. Generally, there is no change in -- no deterioration in engagement at all. In fact, we've seen increased engagement during times of anxiety and trouble a little bit, right? And if you look at propensity to pay, in 2008, we didn't really see much of anything. The business actually performed really well. And our general view is this is a very small expenditure for people and perhaps one of the latter things that people cut when things are off. Also looking back at the early days of COVID in 2020, while we did see a sudden decline when all the news was going around, the engagement first picked back up very quickly within a few weeks, and propensity to pay also started tracking back up within a few weeks, long before other broader economic indicators were recovering. And so we're watching for signs even now. We're not really -- haven't seen anything yet and not seeing anything. We'll keep a close eye. Our expectation, though, is our business is generally resilient during economic downturns because it does service this very fundamental human need.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies.
Brent Thill:
Gary, just on the margin for the year. Can you describe the different approach, anything changing on the bottom line margin and how we should think about that for the full year?
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Actually, we've been performing very well from a cost perspective. We're definitely on track to deliver the 50 basis points to 100 basis points of margin improvement ex-Hyperconnect that we had included in our outlook for 2022 back in February with some of the marketing spend discipline and some other spend discipline. We actually might even do a little bit better than that. And I think if you look at it kind of ex-Hyperconnect, ex-Google, margins are probably in the 38% kind of plus territory. So we feel great about how we're doing on that front. Unfortunately, as I mentioned in the answer to the earlier question, the Google policy change if it goes into effect at June 1 is a reasonably significant headwind to us. $42 million is kind of our estimate for the year for the 7 months of impact. And that's, what, about 1.5 points of margin. So it's basically eating up and maybe even a little more all the good work we're doing on spend discipline and basically eating away at that. So as I look at it, net-net for the year, including everything that we see right now, including Hyperconnect, of course, including the effect of the Google change if it comes to pass and everything else that's in the mix, my estimate would be that the company for the year probably achieves margins somewhere right in that mid-30s percent range, of course, including that 2-plus percent effect of Hyperconnect. It will depend a little bit on what levels of marketing spend we choose to put out there given the pace of the COVID recovery. So that's probably the swing factor. And of course, generally, the advertising market because right now, the market remains fairly expensive. And so that's leading to some of our discipline. But depending on kind of overall macroeconomic conditions, that market may adjust as the year goes on. So we'll have to see how that all plays out, but marketing spend will be a significant factor in our margins. But I think we feel good about how we've been disciplined so far and remain very much on track with what we expect to deliver.
Operator:
The next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.
Lauren Schenk:
Great. And thanks for the MAU commentary in the letter. Maybe bigger picture, there's obviously been a lot of nervousness in the market around the state of the online dating industry in terms of user growth and maturity. Are there any other data points you can offer to investors that give you confidence that we're still sort of in middle innings of the monetization opportunity here? And what initiatives or product launches over the next 6 to 9 months excite you the most to continue to capitalize on that opportunity? And then lastly, is there anything outside of the macro headwinds, I understand there are quite a few, that give you pause or concern about the fundamentals of the business?
Shar Dubey:
Okay. That was a long question. First, about MAU. As I said, the -- our total addressable market ex-China, as measured by connected singles, ages 18 to 65, is now over 700 million. And the vast -- in the Western markets, only half of this market has ever tried a dating product. And obviously, that number is much lower in the rest of the world. So that's sort of one opportunity. And usually, the cadence of nonusers breaking into the category is steady and slow driven by new products and features, new marketing campaigns, new channels and of course, word-of-mouth marketing from other successful users. So what became clear during COVID is the importance and efficacy of dating apps for single people as it became really one of the few choices left for -- to meet people. So now -- for now, it is a matter of us convincing the nonusers around the world to break and adopt a dating app. And we know that once they break into the category, they use multiple of them and they keep coming back as their life circumstances change. One of the examples of trying to tap into some of this category resistor, for example, is our recent new bet Stir, which taps into that unique value proposition for the single parent segment, who find it very hard to navigate mass market products and all of the things they have to go through versus self-selecting into a pool where everybody is sort of dealing with the same issues. While on the topic of MAU, I do want to explain something about the relevance of MAU or not in our business, because we are an episodic churn business and unlike in an ad-supported business, for us, all MAU does not have the same value in our ecosystem. Both for user outcomes as well as monetization, it is more correlated to the balance of liquidity by gender, age, intent, location, et cetera. And so the -- this is why -- and one of the big things is as people, they try it once, they have success or they take a break, and they come back when the circumstances change. So even a 25-year-old brand like Match continues to have a very healthy set of reactivations through the years, right? So that's a sort of phenomenon that's unique to our category, I think. And to your question about monetization, so on an average, the portfolio payer penetration is around mid-teens. But our hard paywall businesses are as high as 40%. And there's also a very large variance by geography. Even for soft paywall businesses in some markets, they are well north of 25%, close to 30%. And so there's a fair degree of runway for us to keep innovating on the payer penetration front. As for average revenue per payer, here's the thing that we have to keep in mind. The total lifetime value amount that a payer pays us is way cheaper than a cost of a single date. And for people who find success on it, this is a priceless, incredibly valuable service. And so I do think there is a tremendous amount of innovation opportunity for us to try different things here and increase that RPP. One of the things I'm excited about is we've referred to the virtual goods trading platform on Tinder and this idea of collectibles. So I think -- and Bernard has particular experience with some of those mechanics. I think that will be a pretty interesting vector for us to watch out for. So as I look back at the history, we've been able to improve all 3 of these metrics, TAM penetration, payer penetration, revenue per payer pretty much every year. And we still have a pretty long runway ahead and a large market opportunity of users to convince to use our products.
Operator:
The next question comes from Youssef Squali with Truist.
Youssef Squali :
Just a question on Hinge. It looks like Hinge continues to show pretty meaningful growth with some exceptional organic traction. You mentioned in the last call that you expected to do about $300 million in revenues. Is this still something that you expect? Or has the recent traction or does the recent traction maybe imply a higher number? Also, can you provide any color on what kind of revenue contribution you expect from the expansion in Germany slated this quarter?
Shar Dubey:
Yes, I can take that. So Hinge's growth trajectory is on track as we expected. In terms of our 2022 outlook, it only includes a very modest revenue contribution from international expansion, including Germany. This is more of a 2023 item. And our plan has always been to go region by region in Europe in 2022 and then do a steady rollout of about one region a quarter and the timing drivers, really sort of translation and localization of the product. Meanwhile, we've seen a recent surge, for instance, in organic traction in India without any localization. So we want to respond to these types of positive signals, and we are accelerating our launch in India. As we've always thought, this is a pretty interesting and attractive market for a high-intent app. And so much of the international contribution, at least from a revenue perspective, is likely to happen in 2023.
Operator:
The next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.
Benjamin Black:
Great. How should we be thinking about capital allocation going forward in the context of the new share buyback authorization? Just given where you are trading now, are you anticipating sort of pushing a little bit heavier and more aggressively on the buyback? And does the buyback change how you're thinking about incremental M&A going forward?
Gary Swidler:
Let me take that one. So just a little context again. At the time of our separation, we set some clear leverage targets, and we eliminated the buyback that we had back then to ensure that we hit those targets by the end of 2021. We set a net leverage target of 3x. And so now that we've hit that and actually are below that level of net leverage, it clearly makes sense for us to once again have a buyback authorization. At that time, we also stated our capital allocation priorities, which really haven't changed. They are to invest, number one, in our business organically. Number two, to do opportunistic M&A to fill any gaps in our portfolio or to add technologies that we think would enhance the overall portfolio. And we've done those kinds of acquisitions successfully on a number of occasions. If we can't find those kinds of strategically compelling M&A opportunities, then we want to return capital back to shareholders. And so the buyback provides us with the mechanism to have the ability to return capital back to shareholders if that makes sense. And so we think it's a good tool for us to have, an appropriate tool for us to have to use to offset dilution from employee equity awards and to take advantage of opportunities to buy our stock back cheaply in periods of market dislocation, as you point out, which is what we're experiencing right now. And so I think it's fair to assume that as we kind of see what's happening with the stock and with the buyback authorization in place, we'll find opportunities to go in and buy back some shares. And so we'll disclose what we do as we proceed along on that basis. But I think you are thinking about this the same way we are.
Operator:
The last question today comes from Ygal Arounian with Wedbush Securities.
Ygal Arounian:
Gary, you hit on marketing a number of times, and you mentioned some challenging ROI or inability to kind of reach ROI targets. So you pulled back on some spending, and you've got the macro factors that are impacting how you spend. Can you just give us a little bit more of an overview on your philosophy on marketing right now? What sort of puts and takes can be -- I know, for example, you also highlighted in the letter stepping up in Japan as Japan reopens. Just how should we think about how all that might ebb and flow as we go through the year?
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Yes. I mean, I think you're thinking about it correctly. We're basically spending where we think it makes sense to spend given the kind of post-COVID recovery dynamics and also making sure that we spend where we can hit our ROI hurdles and maintaining that discipline tightly as we always do. So if you look at Japan as a good example, we are holding back marketing spend in Japan because the market was not receptive. With all the restrictions, it didn't make sense to turn the spigot on significantly in Japan. But now by contrast that we're seeing some real recovery there, we've been spending more and running some new creative campaigns on both our Pairs brand and the Tinder brand, as we mentioned and highlight in the letter. The other thing that's going on is that the market in terms of marketing spend is pretty frothy at the moment. If you look at the U.S., we think the market is expensive. It slowed down significantly at the beginning of COVID, and that was a real opportunity for us to spend aggressively, and we did, but the market has really become much more expensive since that initial COVID-led downturn. And so it's become harder for us to hit our ROI thresholds, particularly at our marketing-heavy spend businesses like Match and Meetic, where we really maintain that ROI discipline. So if we're not seeing opportunities there to hit our hurdles on marketing spend, we're not putting the spend out there. And I think between IDFA, which had some impact and then the environment being strong just more generally, it's just become very challenging to hit the hurdles. The thing to watch out for, I think, though, is what happens with the overall economic picture if people start to get more nervous about where the economy is headed, and we start to see other marketers, advertising budgets get cut back or get delayed, which we often see. And I think we're starting to even see a few signals of that. That could present us with opportunities to, again, hit our hurdles and spend more aggressively. And so as I mentioned in the answer to Brent, that will be a swing factor as we go through the year from a margin perspective. So I think we're starting to see a few signs of nervousness in the market, which could be a benefit to us because as Shar said, our business tends to be economically resilient, somewhat recession-proof. And so if we start to see more opportunities to spend in the market, more opportunity to hit our hurdles, we will absolutely be nimble and take advantage of that, just like we were at the beginning of the COVID period.
Shar Dubey:
That's our last question. With that, I want to thank everyone again. It has been a privilege and an honor. Thank you all.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Bill Archer, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.
Bill Archer:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Shar Dubey; and CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. They will make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Shar.
Shar Dubey:
Thank you, Bill. Good morning, and thank you all for joining the call today. You know, this past year has been remarkable for Match Group in many ways, even though the broader world has been a bit disorienting at times. And as much as we'd hope to be done with COVID in 2021, the recent Omicron surge is a reminder that we aren't quite at the end yet, although I sure hope we're close. So our business grew 25% in revenue despite the waves of Delta and more recently, Omicron. And this latest Omicron surge has impacted peak season behaviors and dating sentiment in parts of the world. And because these surges have had glaring effects on our business, I thought I would start by sort of level-setting where our business is in the context of the pandemic. So if you recall, back in 2020, in the early days of the pandemic, our business took a hit during the global lockdowns, and it then stabilized by late spring. And at that time, both user activity and propensity to pay slowly recovered. And as we've dealt with different waves of COVID since, usually, the mobility restrictions are generally impacted dating activity. And now fast forward 2 years, while much of the Western markets, including the U.S., are seeing less and less impact to activity and propensity to pay with these ongoing surges, several markets, particularly in Asia, are still disproportionately impacted. Japan, for instance, has now dealt with 3 periods of state of emergency last year, all of which had, had a meaningful impact to mobility and general dating sentiment. And there seemed to be a glimmer of hope after that last one was lifted. But again, Omicron has them back in a quasi state of emergency at least until February 20. And all of this has led to a level of anxiety and fatigue, particularly in these winter months, and we're seeing the effects of this in Japan and parts of Asia. Now, beyond these geographic differences, as we've said before a few times, while active online daters and propensity to metrics have largely recovered in Western markets, there is still a hesitancy among new users who have never tried dating apps before to break into the category. Now these are usually largely driven by word of mouth, and that, of course, depends on normal levels of socializing, which hasn't yet happened. And if you've resisted online dating until now, the pandemic hardly seems the right time to start. So this past year, we have seen periodic uptakes in new entrants when COVID is not dominating the news cycle. But by and large, that has not fully recovered in a sustained way. So unlike categories like, say, online groceries, for instance, where pandemic pulled forward new users, for us, nonusers breaking into the category, even at a normal cadence, is still to come. And we feel optimistic that if Omicron truly is what causes the shift from a pandemic to endemic, and if things do indeed return to more normal in spring and summer, we are well positioned to be able to capitalize on it. We've made a significant progress in building out our portfolio of products that appeal to different demographics and intent. We've innovated on many pain points, everything from trust and safety to more authentic discovery and getting to know each other experiences. We've been disciplined and measured in our marketing efforts given the macro climate, but we're ready with several creative and optimistic campaigns to reenergize dating sentiment as soon as we are in a new post-pandemic normal. Romance and love maybe just the thing that shakes us out of this collective malaise. Now Tinder, beyond a 22% revenue growth, in 2021, Tinder released its biggest update since the invention of the Swipe feature, and this was the launch of Tinder Explore. Explore provides Tinder with additional flexibility to expand use cases to more dimensions of discovery and social live experiences. Explore enhances responsiveness, offers surface and opportunity for regionally tailored experiences; has exciting media, video dating hybrids such as Swipe Night, wedding dates, concert festival mode; and it's clearly had a productive start with almost 70% of users adopting this experience. The 2022 road map has many more enhancements planned, along with new monetization opportunities later in the year. Hinge. Hinge has had an impressive year where they've more than doubled revenue. They're also seeing a strong start to 2022 in markets they've been around at, like the U.K. and Australia. And the voice prompts feature they launched late last year has really resonated with users, not to mention the social virality this have seen. Turns out people's life goals, dating styles and their best dad jokes are both entertaining and insightful. Our 2022 plan for Hinge, to expand internationally beyond English-speaking markets, remains intact. We're also making progress at Hyperconnect and stabilizing the core business, and we plan to return them to growth later this year. They have recently launched Azar lounge, their live streaming feature, and Hakuna [city], their interactive and immersive new discovery experience. And they continue to experiment with metaverse elements, both in dating and social discovery context. We've also successfully integrated Hyperconnect's live video and audio tech on a couple of our platforms. And the teams are making progress, enabling our other brands to leverage their technology more broadly to build new immersive discovery and live experiences. While much remains to be done at Hyperconnect, we're actually very confident it is on the right track, and it is pushing us forward in a number of areas that are critical to our long-term growth. As I reflect on last year, what jumps out to me has been our ability to find opportunities in the face of uncertainty. And despite this latest Omicron surge and all the uncertainty it may create over the next couple of months, I am hopeful about 2022, how we're going to use technology and innovate product experiences; tell our story with ever more creative marketing; and most importantly, profoundly change many more lives around the world. And with that, I will hand it over to Gary to provide some color on the quarter and the full year.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Shar. We had a strong Q4 with total revenue of $806 million, up 24% year-over-year. In the quarter, the U.S. dollar strengthened meaningfully against a number of global currencies, including the euro and the yen, which led to $12 million of year-over-year FX headwinds, excluding Hyperconnect. On an FX-neutral basis, total revenue would have been $818 million, up 26% year-over-year. We did not anticipate about $9 million of FX headwind when we provided our outlook in early November. Our direct revenue grew 24% year-over-year. It grew 21% in the Americas, an acceleration from last quarter; 16% in Europe; and 46% in APAC and Other. We did feel some COVID impacts on our business, particularly from the emergence of the Omicron variant, which severely reduced mobility in a number of markets starting in December. COVID continues to be a meaningful overhang on our Japanese business and in certain other markets. Total payers were 16.2 million, an increase of 15% from the prior year quarter. Growth was strong in all geographies, up 10% year-over-year in both the Americas and Europe, and 36% in APAC and Other, which was aided by the acquisition of Hyperconnect. RPP was up 8% year-over-year to $16.16 in Q4. RPP was up a solid 10% in the Americas, 6% in Europe and 7% in APAC and Other. Tinder performed strongly in the quarter, delivering direct revenue of $444 million, up 23% year-over-year, an acceleration over Q3's rate. Tinder had payers' growth of 18% year-over-year, adding 1.6 million payers to 10.6 million, an RPP growth of 4% year-over-year in the quarter. Tinder Platinum subscribers comprised approximately 13% of total Tinder subscribers, exceeding 1 million in aggregate. Tinder active user growth continues to be strong, with the brand achieving a record number of active users on its platform globally in 2021. Engagement on the platform also continues to be robust with several KPIs such as daily swipes and messages at or near all-time highs in Q4. All other brands grew direct revenue 26% year-over-year in Q4, driven by 16% RPP growth and 9% payers' growth. Hinge was the standout among this group, growing direct revenue approximately 90% year-over-year, driven by RPP growth of 60% to nearly $24 and reaching about 850,000 payers. BLK, Chispa and Upward in aggregate grew direct revenue over 70% year-over-year in Q4. Hyperconnect contributed about $50 million of total revenue in the quarter. The business saw improved performance in December compared to preceding months. It was also significantly impacted in the quarter by FX, especially against the Turkish lira as Turkey is a large market for Hyperconnect. Indirect revenue reached $18 million, the highest ever in the quarter, up 12% year-over-year. This was off a very strong Q4 2020. Q4 operating income grew 9% year-over-year to $232 million for margins of 29% and adjusted operating income, which we formally called adjusted EBITDA, grew 18% year-over-year to $290 million for margins of 36%. Adjusted operating income margins would have been 2.5 points higher, excluding Hyperconnect. Overall expenses, including SBC expense, grew 31% year-over-year in Q4, with slightly less than half of the total increase resulting from the acquisition of Hyperconnect. Excluding the impact of Hyperconnect, cost of revenue grew 21% year-over-year, primarily due to higher IAP fees and represented 28% of total revenue. Sales and marketing spend, excluding Hyperconnect, decreased $12 million as we pulled back marketing spend across our portfolio to maintain our ROI discipline in a crowded holiday marketing environment. That did have some impact on payers, especially in our marketing-heavy brands like Match. Sales and marketing spend was down 5 points year-over-year as a percentage of total revenue to 16%. G&A expense excluding Hyperconnect, rose 38% year-over-year, primarily due to an increase in legal fees. G&A comprised 14% of revenue, up 2 points or $28 million year-over-year. G&A was less than we had anticipated as the former Tinder employee litigation came to a conclusion on December 1. Product development costs, excluding Hyperconnect, grew 31% year-over-year and were 8% of revenue as we increased headcount at several brands, primarily Tinder. Our gross leverage declined to 3.7x trailing adjusted operating income, and our net leverage was 2.9x at the end of Q4, achieving the target of below 3x that we set at the time of our separation. We ended the quarter with $827 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on hand. We have agreed to pay $441 million to settle the former Tinder employee litigation and all related claims and arbitrations. We expect to pay this amount from cash on hand in Q1 2022. For full year 2022, we expect the company to deliver 15% to 20% year-over-year growth, driven by another strong year for both Tinder, where we expect high-teens year-over-year growth and Hinge. Our outlook includes approximately $85 million of negative year-over-year FX impacts on total revenue. That's approximately $60 million worse than what we expected at the time of our last earnings call in early November, which is about 2 points of growth. In addition to the FX impact, our revenue growth outlook is more conservative than what we shared in early November due to continued COVID impact, especially in Asia and particularly the rise of the Omicron variant, which is impacting us in the early goings of 2022. Keep in mind that we have a global business. And while we may be getting ready to move past Omicron in the U.S. and Europe, Asia still has to get through that period. So we expect our performance will continue to be somewhat impacted likely until sometime in Q2. In aggregate, our '22 revenue outlook has been reduced by about 3 points of growth since November due to the FX and COVID impacts. Our revenue outlook for 2022 also assumes momentum builds in the second half of the year. There remains much uncertainty about what happens next with the pandemic, but we have increased confidence that while the first part of 2022 may be tougher than we initially anticipated, the second half could be stronger. We're hopeful that once we get past the effects of Omicron, we could even have that summer of love that we had expected back in 2021 after the vaccines were introduced. We expect overall company margins to be roughly flat, inclusive of Hyperconnect, which we expect to be better than breakeven in 2022. For the full year, we expect 50 to 100 basis points of margin improvement, excluding Hyperconnect, as we incur lower year-over-year legal expenses and lower fees on Google subscriptions, which we plan to partially reinvest in safety and CSR initiatives as well as higher employee costs given the ongoing war for talent. Note that despite Google's recent fee cut, which covered only subscription revenue, we actually expect to pay a greater percentage of our revenue to the app stores in 2022 than in 2021 as more of our users come in via app. For instance, on our fast-growing Hinge app, most payers use iOS, and we pay a full 30% on that revenue. Our margin outlook reflects current App Store policies. Our outlook includes over $650 million of App Store fees in 2022, primarily to Apple. Our outlook does not include implementation of Google's previously announced requirement of mandatory use of its payment system starting in April 2022. Were that to happen, we incur approximately $50 million of additional costs for the remainder of the year. Even though we're unable to forecast further change in App Store policies at this time, we remain optimistic that more changes to the App Store ecosystem are likely, and we will continue to update you. For full year 2022, we expect SBC expense of $175 million to $185 million, reflecting additional hiring and the continued competitive market for talent. CapEx of approximately $70 million, about $10 million lower than in 2021 and adjusted operating income to free cash flow conversion of approximately 80%, excluding the $441 million legal settlement. We do not expect to be a material U.S. federal cash taxpayer in 2022. We have an initiative underway in countries where Tinder still offers age-based discounts to eliminate these discounts. These changes, which have begun in earnest in Q1, will impact Tinder payers beginning in Q1, but we expect these changes to be revenue neutral. For Q1, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $790 million to $800 million, which will represent 18% to 20% year-over-year growth. We expect this to be driven by year-over-year payers growth in the low to mid-teens and year-over-year RPP growth in the mid-single digits, as is typical for us. However, the effects from Omicron could shift these metrics somewhat. We anticipate about $25 million of year-over-year FX headwinds in Q1, meaning that growth would be more than 4 points higher on an FX-neutral basis. We expect Tinder's year-over-year direct revenue growth to be in the high teens in Q1 and that Hinge will remain on its growth trajectory and deliver direct revenue growth over 70% year-over-year in Q1. We anticipate that Hyperconnect will deliver revenue in Q1 at similar levels to Q4 '21. We expect adjusted operating income of $260 million to $265 million in Q1, representing margins in the low-30s percent range, typical for a first quarter for us despite about 2.5 points of pressure from adding Hyperconnect. Our company has all the ingredients to continue to deliver on our mission of helping people make meaningful connections through our technology. Tinder has an exciting product road map and a growing global user base to continue to convert. Hinge's product continues to gain traction and the business has meaningful opportunities ahead, including in many international markets. There is so much we can do with Hyperconnect, not only deploy their video and audio tech capabilities across our apps, but have them help us build exciting new Metaverse dating apps and immersive user experiences, which we can potentially make use of across our portfolio. Our financial performance is strong with room to grow already best-in-class margins and potential App Store reform benefits. We strongly believe that the next phase of our business is going to be very exciting. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from John Blackledge of Cowen.
John Blackledge:
Gary, could you expand a bit on the margin expectations for 2022, maybe go through the puts and takes of the margin guide? And then secondly, kind of which markets outside of Japan are being kind of impacted by Omicron?
Gary Swidler:
Sure. I'm happy to do that. First of all, as I said, our outlook for margins for this year, inclusive of Hyperconnect, is that they'd be relatively flat, which we actually think is a strong performance, especially in this environment. And Hyperconnect contributes over 1 point of margin headwind for the year. If you look through the puts and takes, we probably have a bit over 2 points, I would say, of margin improvement from legal expense savings and Google's reduction from 30% to 15% on subscriptions. But we're currently forecasting that we could reinvest more than half of that savings into hiring new people and in retaining our existing talent, especially in the very competitive market that we're operating in for talent right now. We also plan to reinvest some of the -- for some of the savings, a smaller portion into important initiatives for us, including around CSR and user safety, where we're putting incremental resources. And on top of that, as I said in my remarks, we're also spending a larger and larger portion of our revenue on App Store fees given that more of our payers are coming in through the App Stores. That probably creates about 1 point or so of margin headwind for us, but we're offsetting that by being -- by operating leverage on the sales and marketing side. So I'd say those probably wash out and are relatively neutral. And then the last kind of put and take that I would point you to is what I mentioned about Google's previously announced requirement to use their in-app payment system, which they're supposed to put into effect at the end of March. Frankly, it's really difficult for me to fathom Google making that policy change, given all the legal and regulatory pressures that they're facing. And recall that they delayed this policy once before. They've made exceptions for it in certain markets. So we'll see how that plays out, but that's kind of my thinking around that at this point in time. So hopefully, that's helpful on the margin side. I'm sorry, what was the second question around Japan and other markets?
John Blackledge:
In Other markets --
Gary Swidler:
Yes. So -- yes. Look, I would say -- I mean, look, it's a little bit everywhere, right? We're not back to normal, as Shar said. We're not seeing the strength in new users yet. And so that is affecting the business everywhere. It's most pronounced in Japan, where we have a pretty significant shortfall in 2021 versus what we were expecting Japan to contribute. We have the #1 and #2 apps in payers and Tinder. So it's a meaningful number when you aggregate the effect on our 2021 in Japan versus what we were thinking. And that's going to carry through into 2022 because, as Shar said, that market has nowhere near gone back to normal. Aside from Japan, there's a couple of other markets in Asia. Korea is also very strictly enforcing restrictions around the pandemic. And so that's another market which has clearly not gone back to normal. And there's other ones in Asia as well that are smaller for us. Even India hasn't fully bounced back. As an example, it's better than it was at the depths, but it's improved meaningful, but it's still down significantly from pre-pandemic. So there's a number of markets, especially across Asia, where there are some lingering effect, but Japan is really the most meaningful one for us.
Operator:
The next question comes from Justin Patterson of KeyBanc.
Justin Patterson:
On Tinder Explore, those metrics you shared look really encouraging. How should we think about the product initiatives like Explore affecting the art of Tinder growth over the next few years?
SharDubey:
Hi, Justin. So Tinder Explore, what it did, it allowed us to create a -- successfully a new service area and experience without hurting the very efficient Swipe machine. And the goal now is to have new and personalized experiences that are fun, interactive, useful in helping spark connections. And we've already got 70% of our users adopting the experience, and we're seeing high levels of engagement and likes, messages and conversations. So looking ahead, our plan is to continuously launch and feature a variety of novel and engaging experiences here. We talked about the music mode launch in the letter. Soon to come, for example, is going to be an experience that's a fun rip on the classic blind date experience. Explore also allows us to have geographically tailored programming. So in Brazil, we're about to launch Carnival mode on Valentine's Day. It's going to be an Explore experience that allows members to opt in to match with others that are celebrating carnival in their major cities like Rio, Sao Paulo, Salvador, et cetera. And people can share their favorite parties, where they're traveling to. Carnival is the most important cultural moment in Brazil, and it's a moment that connects people. And it's a great example of how Explore enables a fluid virtual to in real life experience. So additionally, as you can imagine, this new surface area with these Explore tiles also provides us opportunities for integrations with third parties to drive sort of new experiences in the app and offline. And it gives people a reason to keep coming back and check out these new experiences. And then as this -- the adoption and engagement on the service area increases, it does provide new opportunities to us to merchandise revenue features, both existing and new revenue features. So that's why we're so excited about this whole new surface area that we've created.
Operator:
The next question comes from Deepak Mathivanan of Wolfe Research.
Deepak Mathivanan:
Just one maybe for Gary. Can you give us some color on monthly cadence on net payer adds in Americas and Europe during 4Q? Was most of the declines in the month of December due to Omicron? And also maybe perhaps what you're seeing in January so far. Kind of if you want to add some color by brand, that will be a great deal.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Happy to do that, and good to hear your voice. First of all, I would just point out that as a general matter, it's not unusual for us to see kind of limited sequential growth in payers Q4 over Q3. So overall, the trend is not atypical for us. And then I would point out to a number of factors to think about as you look at the Q4 payers' numbers and results. The first, what you rightly point out, is Omicron, right? We saw a spike kind of in that early part of December, especially in some of the Western markets, and it did affect our payer numbers starting in December. So there was a change in trend after Omicron burst onto the scene. And so that's a big part of what happened at the end of Q4. We've called out many times kind of the lingering COVID impacts we see in some markets that haven't returned back to normal, Asia, particularly Japan. That's another factor around payers and the performance in Q4. And then I also mentioned that we had reduced marketing spend because we just couldn't hit our ROI hurdles, especially with some of our marketing heavy brands. Match, as an example, and others of the established brands were impacted in Q4 as we pulled back on marketing spend to protect our return expectation. So those things, I think, together are the key trends that we saw. Looking at Q1, we're not expecting a massive shift in some of those things. We still have Omicron lingering. We feel like we're getting closer to the end, but it continues to be an issue in a number of markets. And as we said in the earlier remarks, it hasn't even really worked its way through the Asia markets, Korea, Japan, they've got the hatches battened down to prepare for it, and that's going to affect deal's behavior in those markets. So while we're moving through it in the West, you still got to go through it in some of the Asian markets. And so that's going to be an effect here in early 2022. And then hopefully, we'll get through this and we'll have an inflection point in the pandemic and in the impact on people's social lives and dating. The only other thing which I just want to add is that -- and we say this all the time, we don't manage our results for specific payer growth or RPP growth or whatever. We're managing it for revenue growth. And so we are making trade-offs all the time in terms of price optimizations and so forth. And so that does move the payers' numbers around? I called out one in my remarks around discounting at Tinder that we're adjusting policies there. So you're going to continue to see us make those decisions. That could have effects on payer numbers, but ultimately, we think are the right thing to do for the business and certainly to grow revenue the way we want to grow revenue.
Operator:
The next question comes from Lauren Schenk of Morgan Stanley.
Lauren Schenk:
I was intrigued by your comments that Hinge is on its way to become the second largest global dating app within a few years' time. Could you talk about where you see Hinge RPP heading over the long term? And then how should we think about the ‘22 revenue growth for Hinge that's embedded in the full year guide?
Shar Dubey:
I can take that, Gary. Lauren, Hinge is one of the best designed products for what I call [intentioned] dating. And that sort of reflects in how rich the profile is, the way you consume them, the way you communicate on the platform. And the team has kept innovating and pulling ahead of competition every year. The way they implemented audio, which -- basic audio, for instance, but they did it in the form of voice prompts and how that became such a resonant in socially viral feature is an example of how they approach product development. And this particular product, I think, has a pretty big resonance among a large segment of audience. It is differentiated in the market. And that's what gives us confidence about the international rollout. On monetization specifically, Hinge has made real progress on RPP, as you know, this past year. And we certainly don't think it's near its feeling. But our expectation this year in 2022 is for Hinge to do over $300 million in revenue. And it's going to be driven by both strong payer growth as well as continued growth in RPP.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brent Thill of Jefferies.
Brent Thill:
Gary, on the second half recovery, I'm curious if you could just shell a little more of your plan on what the recovery looks like. And when you talk about Japan, can you also just frame up, for last year, what Japan dating growth and kind of what your expectations are? And I believe that's your second largest market. So what -- maybe drill in a little bit in terms of how you're expecting that region to bounce back.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Happy to do that. So look, I would say that our outlook for right now is assuming that we gradually come out of the Omicron impacts by geography, first, in the West, Europe and the U.S. and then ultimately, in Asia. And I think that's going to take some time into the second quarter. A little hard to tell if maybe Asia handles things differently once they've seen what people have done over here. But right now, that's our assumption. And as we come out of the Omicron impact, what we're assuming is that activity behavior goes back to pre-Omicron levels, but not back to pre-pandemic levels. So kind of the fog of Omicron lifts, and we go back to where we thought we were in October of last year as opposed to where we were in 2019, as an example. Now that could be a wrong assumption because I don't know how people are going to behave depending on how confident they feel, how much of an end we reached to all of this, let's say, sometime in the spring. And so that is a swing factor in our outlook, but we're not assuming a huge summer of love right now in our outlook that would clearly provide upside or at least the ability to reach the higher ends of the outlook, if that happened. I think it's entirely possible. I know a lot of people feel like as soon as we get to those warm summer months, there's going to be a real big wave, but we're not forecasting that at the moment until we see some evidence that really this is over, and that is how people are going to behave, but we'll have to wait and see. Right now, we're more sober on our forecast because we've been head-faked a few times, and it's been going on for a long time, and no one's had a great ability to predict kind of what the pandemic brings and what the effects are. So that's how we're forecasting, but we remain very optimistic that people are going to want to go out and date and socialize in big numbers once they feel the risk is down and they're ready to do that. And we clearly have not gotten to that yet. We're hoping it happens kind of in the summer months, spring and summer months, but remains to be seen. I would also just say on our forecast that we don't have a significant amount included for kind of key new initiatives that Tinder -- the Tinder virtual goods as an example. We don't have a lot included for Hinge International because those are really more '23 items in our minds than 2022. But to the extent we're able to accelerate some of those or we see bigger impact early on than we are currently anticipating, that could also be a swing factor on our second half, on our overall 2022. So those are some of the puts and takes there. We're trying to quantify how much Japan has cost us. As I said, we've got the #1, #2 apps. Our Pairs app has felt a significant amount of impact. Tinder has felt some. I don't have a great estimate, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's $35 million, $40 million of impact on our 2021 that we would have seen that revenue had Japan been operating more normally. So it is a big market for us. It's a big contributor, and the impact is pretty meaningful. And I don't think we're going to get that recovery really in the first half of this year. We'll see if we get it in the second half.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ygal Arounian of Wedbush Securities.
Ygal Arounian:
Gary, why don't you talk about -- on the app fees, and you talked about some of the jurisdictions and some of what they're taking up just to create fairness. Can you expand on that a little bit and what your expectations are as we move through the year? And then maybe a little bit more on Apple and Google. It sounds like you're not building any expectation for changes in Apple's fees, is that right? And what's the process there to get to that 15% or whatever kind of agreement we might end up at? And then with Google, if they do change the structure and the workarounds for the fees, would there be any change to how you think about reinvesting those savings that you're currently seeing?
Gary Swidler:
I am not sure we caught all of that question because there was a little bit of feedback on the line. But let me kind of take a shot at it. First of all, if we get the Google savings, we've talked about this generally on App Store, so I wouldn't say it's just specific to Google. But obviously, we're going to look at how to deploy any changes they make. We have the ability to return some of that to customers in the form of discounting to them. We also will have higher return on our marketing spend because we'll be paying less to the Stores. And so we'll be able to spend more into marketing, which should enhance our growth. So there's a number of things that we can do with any savings that we achieve from the App Stores over time. And like we said, we remain optimistic at some of that's coming, but this is a slow process on the regulatory front. And so right now, we have not made any further assumptions around that in our numbers for 2022.
Shar Dubey:
I can add more. I think you had questions about sort of what are the key legislations around the world. So there has been a lot of momentum on this issue. Mandatory IAP is now deemed illegal in South Korea and more recently, in Netherlands under both Dutch and more importantly, EU law. It has been surprising to see Apple's response of noncompliance in these countries despite the EUR 5 million per week fine they are now subject to in Netherlands. More consequentially, here in the U.S., just end of last week, 35 state attorney generals and the DOJ filed an Amicus Brief supporting Epic's position and opined that, that decision was wrongly decided. Also this week, the Open App Markets Act that addresses App Store policies, including IAP, which seems to have bipartisan support in the Senate, is expected to move out of committee, hopefully, this week. So there's little that both sides agree to these days. The fact that this has such bipartisan support shows how unfair and inequitable some of these policies are deemed to be. So as Gary said, the timing of all of this regulation and legislative changes are hard to predict. It is the single -- the App Store fees are the single biggest expense line for us at the moment. They exceeded $550 million last year. They're going to increase meaningfully this year. And we remain optimistic that change is coming. And obviously, there's a lot of good we can do with that in addition to margin expansion, reinvestment, et cetera.
Gary Swidler:
Yes. The only other thing I would add kind of on Google and its potential policy change, is that Shar said, you've got all these countries and jurisdictions saying, mandatory IAP is not acceptable. It's illegal in Korea, et cetera. It seems very surprising to me that in the face of all that, Google would make a global change and make IAP mandatory on March 31. That's just this kind of defies logic to me. But they'll have to make the decision they make, and then we'll have to see kind of what makes sense in reaction to that. So we'll see how that plays out over the next couple of months. But that's how I sort of handicap just given where the trends are blowing, which are very, very clear, as Shar said. The U.S. Senate subcommittee has taken up a bill around -- or is taking up a bill around this as well. It just seems very hard for me to believe that they would require people to use their payment system in that environment. But we'll see how it plays out.
Operator:
The next question comes from Alexandra Steiger of Goldman Sachs.
Alexandra Steiger:
I have 2 on Hyperconnect. So first of all, it's great to see that several brands have begun leveraging Hyperconnect's technology. Can you maybe walk us through the impact you've seen both from an engagement perspective, but also from a cost savings perspective? And then to what degree can you also leverage Hyperconnect's monetization strategies and learnings across your portfolio of apps, for example, or especially at Tinder? And then maybe lastly, where do we sit in terms of like integrating Hyperconnect, the team, the company? And how should we think about any additional investments necessary from here?
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me take a shot at that, and Shar certainly can add. First of all, we continue to make great, great progress working with Hyperconnect. We have a lot of confidence in the team and their innovation. Our teams are collaborating really well globally. We're learning from them. They're learning from us. So it's really going well from that standpoint. And we think they are very quick on product. They're innovative. They move fast. So that's all great from our perspective. In terms of investment, we continue to look at that. We are investing and adding people to help them build some of the things that we want to plug in across our apps. And all of that is kind of baked into our numbers for the year. And I said Hyperconnect is going to be better than breakeven even with all of that investment included, so we'll continue to hopefully see margins improve from there as we get the operating leverage on the investment and on their capabilities. In terms of kind of what's happened so far, just to give you some concrete examples, we rolled audio and video rooms and one-to-one video chat using their technology onto 2 of our apps, Match and Meetic, thus far. If you use the European business, Meetic, as the example, what we call the live cafe with audio and video, has been really well received by their user base. Usage of the features continues to grow. People are returning to engage with the product. The feedback is very positive. And so we're very excited about how that's all going. And in fact, we're planning a major live event at Meetic on the technology for Valentine's Day. So that's another good example of an event that's coming up that uses the technology and to be current. So that's an example of kind of engagement and how that's going, and Meetic and Hyperconnect are continuing to build out capabilities and features and working hand in glove. And so it's great not only for the user base, but also going well from a collaborative standpoint. At Match, if you want to use that as an example, we did replace a third-party vendor's technology on the video side with Hyperconnect. And so not only did that lead to some cost savings for us, but also it means we have much more responsiveness to changes we want to make and things we want to try. We think the product overall is much better using Hyperconnect. And so having that in-house has led to not only cost savings, which you asked about, but also benefits in terms of the overall quality that we're excited about. So when you look at both what's happened at Match and Meetic with Hyperconnect technology thus far, we're extremely encouraged. And what that's doing is it's leading us to have more confidence to roll that out on more of our apps. And so we're planning to bring that out into our Pairs app and a part of it into our Plenty of Fish app over the coming time. And so we'll continue to roll it out across the portfolio. And as you alluded to, we are thinking about what we might do at Tinder. And so more to come on that topic. But obviously, there's great potential there if we can find some things to leverage from Hyperconnect into the Tinder platform, and we are looking at that. We think Explore provides a great place to try some of those features and technologies. So much, much more to come, but I think from a collaborative standpoint, from a using-their-technology standpoint across our apps, things are tracking according to plan, if not maybe ahead of it, and it's really going as well as we could have expected.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shweta Khajuria of Evercore ISI.
Shweta Khajuria:
Could you please comment or provide more detail on Tinder coin? So you talked in your letter about 12 markets that is available. And you also, earlier on this call, said you don't expect a meaningful impact this year. But perhaps if you could talk about or frame what kind of contribution you can expect maybe 2023 and beyond, what do you think the future could look like, that would be great. And then just a quick follow-up on your comments on age-based pricing for Tinder. So how should we think about payer growth and the impact on that, even understood it's revenue neutral?
Shar Dubey:
Maybe I'll start with the Tinder coins, and then Gary can jump in. Shweta, the Tinder coins is currently testing in 12 markets. And the use cases are both for incentivizing certain core actions and also increasing access to existing revenue products. And we are seeing some increased engagement and retention from these incentives. And there's a bunch of testing going on, on various sort of monetization experiences. The plan is to accelerate the rollout in Q2 and be globally out by Q3. However, the biggest value of coins to us is its ability to power new economies such as the virtual goods. And that is a whole new construct that we are hoping to be able to test in the back half of the year, and hence, we're not counting on any sort of meaningful contribution to 2022 revenue, it's more a 2023-and-beyond revenue contribution.
Gary Swidler:
In terms of the age-based pricing and changing that discount, first of all, that is done in certain large markets for us like the U.S., that has been eliminated. So the big one now that's happening in Q1 is in the U.K. And so there will be a pronounced impact on payers in Q1 from that change in the U.K. that you're going to see. And we are going to move that through a couple of other European markets as well. And then there's a couple in Asia where we have to make those changes. And I think New Zealand is another one. So there's a handful. Some are smaller, some are larger. But there is going to be a noticeable kind of pronounced impact on payers at Tinder outside of the U.S. coming in Q1, and it will probably continue into Q2. But like I said, we'll manage that in a way that we think it will be largely revenue neutral, but it will have some notable effect on payers in the beginning part of the year, for sure.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mario Lu of Barclays.
Mario Lu:
I was hoping if you could elaborate on what dating in the metaverse looks like and within the smartphone, in particular? So just wondering, is the features like Hinge's voice prompt, more live video chats. And similarly, what inning would you consider technological advances that have been made within the phone with regards to dating?
Shar Dubey:
Yes. I can take a shot at that. So you're right. Right now, we're focused on the metaverse as it relates to the experience on the smartphone and not any other hardware-enabled experiences. So that's to clarify. Now the technology that is relevant to our world is the one that allows us to create experiences online where people can meet each other, discover each other, more serendipitously and real time through shared experiences in a way that is more akin to how they would do in real life versus the profile-sorting experience that exists today. And so that’s sort of what Metaverse allows us to do and why we think that's relevant in our world. Imagine sort of a virtual club in the app where your digital self can walk around, check out live, different rooms. They meet others listening to the same music. You can strike up a conversation with someone. You can tap and check out their full profile. You can like them, message them later. And so that's sort of the -- how we envision the Metaverse experience leading to the dating context and the dating experience in our app. Now in terms of the types of underlying technology that's needed to enable these experiences, this is what the Hyperconnect team has been innovating on, right? Beyond just the real-time live, low-latency video, audio technology that they have, there are additional technology elements, everything from what's -- the pieces of the virtual human technology, the virtual fraud technology, also live audio and video connection based on location -- connections that are based on locations on a map, for instance, and so on. So that hopefully gives you some clarity on how we're thinking about the Metaverse world.
Operator:
Our last question will come from Cory Carpenter of JPMorgan.
Cory Carpenter:
I just want to circle back to Hyperconnect. Could you talk a bit more about what drove the stability in December across the Azar and Hakuna Live apps? And just how you're thinking about the sustainability of that through 2022?
Gary Swidler:
Yes. I mean, I think on their performance, like we said, it did get better in December, certainly an improvement versus October and November despite the fact that we saw some real FX headwinds there. So some of that was rolling out a few things that started to show some traction, live streaming on Azar being one. And as I've said, we're focusing more on some of the Asian markets where we're seeing better performance. Despite COVID, I think the Asian markets, Korea, Japan have been better for Hyperconnect than some of the Middle Eastern markets. So we're adjusting focus. We're helping them in a few fronts, and that seems to be starting to pay off, both on the marketing side as well as on the product side. And we've had teams focused on this now for a little while. And so we're seeing improvement. And they've innovated with some new product features. That seem to be working. So that's giving us some optimism going into 2022, more work to do. Right now, where -- our outlook still is for a relatively flat performance in Q1 and Q2 on the Hyperconnect side. And we think as these initiatives and more to come, start to bear fruit, we'll start to see a reacceleration of growth into Q3 and Q4 in the back half of the year. And that, of course, doesn't include all the great stuff they're doing for us across the portfolio, which is meaningful as well. So we feel great about how Hyperconnect's scaling. And we know there's more work to do, and we're very focused on it at this point.
Gary Swidler:
I think that that's it, given that we're getting close to the bottom of the hour. So really appreciate everybody joining for this call. I hope everyone stays well and safe out there, and we look forward to talking to you in the warm spring months in May, where we'll be looking forward to a great summer. Thanks very much.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group’s Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Bill Archer, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.
Bill Archer:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today’s call will be led by CEO, Shar Dubey and CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. They will make a few brief remarks and then we will open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Shar.
Shar Dubey:
Thank you, Bill. Good morning, and thank you all for joining the call today. Today, Gary and I are doing this call from our brand-new offices in New York. We had another strong quarter with over 25% year-over-year revenue growth, also a record EBITDA quarter for us. Tinder, in particular, showed real strength, with not only 20-plus percent revenue growth, but also adding a record number of subscribers and payers this quarter. It is a historical high for Tinder, even higher than the quarter when Tinder Gold rolled out. I am also excited to have our first woman CEO at Tinder. Renata has seamlessly taken over the helm there and the team hasn’t missed a beat in their journey to transform the Tinder experience. Explore, which is a new surface area within the Tinder app, rolled out globally a couple of weeks ago. It is a dynamic interface, which allows users to connect with others through new experiences beyond the swipe that used to be Tinder. These experiences can be tailored by market. It keeps Tinder at the center of culture, gives users new reasons to keep coming back, increases engagement and activity. In fact, our successful Swipe Night series in coming to Tinder on Explore in a brand-new series starting November 7, not only is it a very compelling Gen Z hood on its storyline, this time it has a bunch of features like fast chat built-in that should amplify the conversations that follow on Tinder. Hinge had another great quarter across all metrics, doubling revenue again. The one business that is seeing an unexpected softness is the main revenue-driving app at Hyperconnect Azar. It’s had a few months of headwinds in some key markets in Asia, some of it is COVID, some of it is marketing performance, some product-related delays. However, South Korea has finally opened up to international travel and our teams were able to meet over the last couple of weeks in person. We are working closely with them now on marketing the product roadmap in order to reverse the trend. I am extremely optimistic about this team and technology asset as a long-term value creator for our portfolio, especially as we enter what we described in the shareholder letter as the next phase of Match Group’s evolution in the dating category. In fact, my long-term thesis was further validated in the last couple of weeks when the team there walked me through a new concept they are beta testing on some college campuses in Seoul. It’s called Single Town. It is a platform where your digital self in the form of real-time audio-powered avatar can serendipitously meet others in virtual spaces, like a bar or you can sit down with someone in a park bench to have one-on-one or group conversation. There is, for instance, a piano bar where people’s digital selves are gathering around, but they are actually playing their pianos at home and jamming with others. You can overhear our conversations, join conversations. You can tap into the digital avatars to see more of that profile and you have basically a richer set of signals to help connect with someone. It is metaverse experiences coming to life in a way that is transformative to how people meet and get to know each other on a dating or social discovery platform and is much more akin to how people interact in the real world. It is super early, but we are seeing some encouraging early signals in terms of engagement among Gen Z in Seoul. Already, the average daily time spent is about an hour and growing. Subcultures are forming. It is resonating with both genders. And as we talked about in our letter, this next phase of dating apps, in particular, is going to be all about richer, more organic and more akin to real life ways of discovering, meeting and getting to know people. Technology is finally getting down and this underlying technology platform, Hyperconnect has built that power Single Town has been built in a way that it can be leveraged by other platforms easily. So, my long-term view on what this talented team and technology brings to the portfolio is ever stronger. Finally, based on everything we are hearing and seeing, this coming season should be a strong one as people are ready to shake-off the COVID malaise and get out there and date and meet. It’s also shaping up to be one of the busiest wedding seasons. I feel good about a reenergized and much more social holiday season. These social interactions are incredibly important for our collective mental health and well-being. So I, for one, I am rooting for a hell of a holiday season and a post-holiday peak season for us as we enter the New Year. And with that, I will hand it over to Gary to provide some more color on the quarter.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Shar. We had strong Q3, with total revenue of $802 million, up 25% year-over-year. Our businesses, excluding Hyperconnect, produced total revenue of $748 million, up 17% year-over-year. Total payers reached $16.3 million in Q3, an increase of 16% from the prior year quarter. Growth was strong in all geographies, up 11% year-over-year in the Americas; 13% in Europe; and 36% in APAC and other, where the count reflects a full quarter of contribution from Hyperconnect. RPP was up 8% year-over-year to $16.06 in Q3, up 5% in the Americas, 6% in Europe and 17% in APAC and other, again, reflecting a full quarter from Hyperconnect, where RPP exceeded $30. Our direct revenue grew 17% in the Americas, 20% in Europe, and 59% in APAC and other, again due to full quarter of Hyperconnect results. APAC and other now comprises approximately 22% of our direct revenue. Tinder was a standout in the quarter, delivering direct revenue of $434 million, up over 20% year-over-year. Tinder has phenomenal payers growth, up 19% year-over-year, adding 1.7 million payers, the most in its history, reaching 10.4 million. Some of this growth did come at the expense of RPP, which grew 1% year-over-year in the quarter. Tinder had a number of conversion wins in the quarter, particularly in the lower-priced subscription tier. Tinder Platinum adoption is ahead of schedule, with total Platinum subscribers reaching nearly 1 million. Tinder engagement also remains very strong with both Swipe activity and daily average messages significantly above pre-pandemic levels. All other brands grew direct revenue 32% year-over-year in Q3. In this group, Hinge was the standout, growing direct revenue over 100%, driven by RPP growth of north of 70% and payers growth of 20%. BLK, Chispa and Upward in aggregate grew direct revenue over 80% year-over-year in Q3. Hyperconnect contributed $53 million of total revenue in the quarter, below our expected range. Hyperconnect is facing pressure at its largest revenue generating app, Azar, especially in certain Middle Eastern markets. It also faced delays in rolling out certain product initiatives and a challenging marketing environment. We are working diligently with the Hyperconnect team to improve performance and deliver sustainable long-term growth. Indirect revenue reached $16 million, the highest ever in a quarter, up 40% year-over-year. It appears our strong brands, relatively lower ad loads, and contextual targeting have been especially appealing to advertisers in the current environment. Operating income grew 10% year-over-year to $221 million and EBITDA grew 15% year-over-year to $285 million in Q3. EBITDA margins were 36%, what would have been 39% ex-Hyperconnect. Overall, expenses, including SBC expense, grew 32% year-over-year in Q3, with more than half the total increase resulting from the acquisition of Hyperconnect. Excluding the impact of Hyperconnect, cost of revenue grew 20% year-over-year due to higher IAP fees and represented 27% of total revenue. Sales and marketing spend, excluding Hyperconnect, was up $5 million due to slightly higher marketing spend across our portfolio, but was down 2 points year-over-year as a percent of total revenue to 18%. G&A expense, ex-Hyperconnect, rose 8% year-over-year primarily due to an increase in legal fees and was 13% of revenue, down 1 point year-over-year. Product development costs, ex-Hyperconnect, grew 37% year-over-year and were 7% of revenue as we increased headcount at several brands, mainly Tinder and Hinge. Our gross leverage declined to 3.8x trailing EBITDA and our net leverage was 3.3x at the end of Q3. We believe our target of below 3x net leverage by the end of 2021 is within reach. In a complex series of related transactions, we have repurchased $414 million aggregate principal amount of our 2022 exchangeable notes for approximately $1.5 billion in cash, using the proceeds from issuing 5.5 million shares of common stock, $500 million of new 3.625% 10-year unsecured debt, and the unwind of the related bond hedges and warrants. These transactions, which were executed in the third quarter, but sales in the fourth quarter created an embedded derivative on which we recorded a $39 million loss in Q3, but also on which we expect to recognize a $24 million gain in Q4. We had operating cash flow of $667 million in the quarter and free cash flow of $614 million. We ended the quarter with $523 million of cash and short-term investments on hand. For Q4, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $810 million to $820 million, which would represent 24% to 26% year-over-year growth. Building off the conversion strength achieved in Q3, we expect Tinder’s year-over-year direct revenue growth to accelerate towards the mid-20s percent range in Q4. Our expectation is that Hyperconnect will deliver revenue in Q4 at similar levels to Q3. Between weaker Q3 performance and lowered expectations for Q4, we have reduced Hyperconnect’s revenue contribution by approximately $20 million for full year 2021. We expect full year standalone Hyperconnect revenue to be about $210 million. Despite softer performance at Hyperconnect, strength at Tinder and Hinge position us to deliver around $3 billion of total revenue in full year 2021, representing 25% year-over-year growth. Notably, we expect Tinder direct revenue growth to be above 20% in full year 2021. We expect EBITDA of $285 million to $290 million in Q4, representing 16% to 18% year-over-year growth and margins, ex-Hyperconnect, roughly in line with the prior year quarter. For the full year, we expect EBITDA to be above our previously communicated high-end of the range of $1.060 billion, up nearly 20% year-over-year. Typically, we provide some initial thoughts on the upcoming year on our Q3 call. For the past several years, our initial outlook has been mid to high teens revenue growth. For 2022, we expect our businesses, ex-Hyperconnect, to once again deliver that level of growth driven by another strong year for Tinder and for Hinge as it begins expansion into non-English speaking markets. With the full year of Hyperconnect revenue contribution included, we expect the company to grow total revenue closer to 20% year-over-year in 2022. We will provide a more precise revenue outlook on our February call once we see how the strategic changes at Hyperconnect as the new product initiatives across the portfolio begin to take hold. Excluding impacts from IF policy changes that go into effect in 2022, we expect to see about 1 point of margin improvement at our businesses, ex-Hyperconnect and for Hyperconnect to achieve mid single-digit EBITDA margins next year. While we anticipate legal expenses to be meaningfully lower next year, we plan to reinvest a portion of that savings into important safety and corporate and social responsibility initiatives. Also, given the highly competitive job market, we may reinvest to attract and retain crucial talents. The level of investments we choose to make in these areas will impact the actual amount of margin expansion we achieve. The biggest swing factor in our 2022 EBITDA outlook is what happens with app store fees, which are an increasingly large percent of our revenue, up from 17% in 2020 to an estimated 19% in 2021, totaling over $550 million. There are numerous actions across the globe scrutinizing Apple and Google’s requirement that we use their payment system and pay a 30% fee. A reduction in these fees would have numerous positive consequences, including enabling us to pass along benefits to consumers. Google has agreed to reduce fees for subscriptions, though not a-la-carte from 30% to 15% starting January 1, 2022, but they also still have a policy change to require use of their billing system scheduled to go into effect at the end of March 2022. There are many unknowns regarding Apple’s plans for IAP, including whether and how they intend to comply with the law banning mandatory IAP in South Korea and the injunction in the Epic decision, which requires them to eliminate the anti-steering provision by December 9, 2021. We are going to watch these developments around the app stores for at least another few months before we provide our EBITDA outlook for next year. We are optimistic more changes in the app ecosystem are likely. There is a lot going on across our business, including a meaningful product evolution at Tinder and many of our other brands. We are excited to execute on our product roadmap and to continue evolving the experience for our users. We recognize that people around the world are increasingly turning to digital products to meet and socialize. Our job is to continue to build new and exciting products and experiences that enable people to connect, something we have been a leader at for more than 25 years. We are confident that if we remain focused on delivering outstanding products, we will continue to deliver strong growth and financial results for our stakeholders for many more years to come. With that, I will ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And your first question today comes from Mario Lu with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Mario Lu:
Great. Good morning. A couple of questions on Tinder. The first one is on payers. So I was wondering if you could provide any additional color regarding the key drivers or regions that attributed to Tinder’s 800,000 sequential payer growth in the quarter? How should we think about the normalized cadence of Tinder payer growth going forward?
Shar Dubey:
Yes, I can take that. So generally, Q3 is a good quarter for payer ads. But this one was in the historically high for Tinder. And it’s across all regions mostly because a lot of the growth in payers in Q3 came as a result of what we normally referred to as under-the-hood revenue optimization. So a combination of merchandising and paywall optimizations drove conversion and payer growth. Some of this increased conversion was in lower-priced tiers, which were dilutive to RPP, as Gary mentioned. The one thing I want to emphasize, we generally always focus on revenue growth. Sometimes it comes through payer growth and sometimes through RPP, sometimes both. And so, we don’t worry too much about the cadence necessarily, but we’re definitely always focused on revenue features to increase revenue overall.
Mario Lu:
Got it. And just a quick follow-up on the Tinder RPP growth, you mentioned the lower-priced tiers being successful as being one contributor. What about – any color about Platinum still being a contributor to RPP growth? And then any color you can provide regarding the expectations from these new features such as Explore and whether they will accelerate Tinder RPP in the next few quarters? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Sure. So yes, the RPP dilution came because some of the conversion features helped payer growth in the lower tier – lower-priced tiers. But Platinum has been exceeding our expectations. Gary said close to 1 million at the end of September. We’ve actually now passed that. And it will continue to be a driver of RPP growth. In terms of Explore, it is new. It’s only been out for a couple of weeks, but we have early evidence of this. And we expect the Explore experiences should increase engagement and reactivation. And this, in turn, ought to provide more revenue optimization opportunities over time, both in terms of conversion as well as RPP growth, meaning both conversion from new payers but also a la carte revenue opportunities on – through that interface.
Mario Lu:
That’s helpful. Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. Maybe just dig a little more deeper, so as far as the fourth quarter acceleration in Tinder direct revenues, just maybe talk about like what’s driving the confidence for that plus 25%? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure, Jason. It’s Gary. I’ll take that. I would say generally, Tinder has really been performing very strongly and increasingly strongly as the year has gone on. And the engagement with the product is really even well stronger than it was pre-pandemic. So we really feel good about the dynamics overall at Tinder. And what we’re expecting is that in Q4, we’re going to see both payer and RPP growth. The momentum that we had on the payer growth should continue into Q4. So I’m expecting a similar level of year-over-year payer growth in Q4 as we saw in Q3. And I think we will also be able to achieve some RPP growth as well, which we didn’t see as much in Q3, but I think we will see that in Q4. So when you combine the additional RPP growth with similar level of payer growth, you’re going to get overall direct revenue growth in kind of approaching the mid-20s at Tinder, as I said earlier. So we feel very good about that. The one thing that I just would remind people is that seasonally, Q4 tends to be weaker for Tinder around payer growth. Especially when we’ve seen a very strong Q3, it does make kind of the sequential payer increase more challenging. So that’s the thing we are expecting to see from a sequential perspective in Q4, but year-over-year, I am expecting similar levels of growth on payers as what we saw in Q3. And just last reminder would be, we don’t really manage the business specifically around RPP growth or payers growth. We’re looking for direct revenue or overall revenue growth. So we don’t get as focused on one metric versus the other. There is obviously trade-offs as we saw in Q3, but we continue to manage to drive a strong level of revenue growth and we’re positioned to do that in Q4.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Yes. Thank you. On the app store, certainly a lot of moving parts, but based on what we know today, Gary, is there any further guidance you could provide on the way to frame future app store just as we head into 4Q and 2022? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Shar, do you want to take that one?
Shar Dubey:
Yes. You know what, I’m going to take the opportunity to talk about the app store a little bit more broadly and all the puts and takes that we’re seeing and what we think is likely to happen. So you know there has been a flurry of activity on the app store front, particularly in the last few months. South Korea became the first country to outlaw mandatory IF. Additionally, at this point, there are either active investigations, litigation or proposed legislation across the globe, including countries in Europe, UK, Japan, India, Australia and the U.S. So here’s what we see at a practical level. Google appears to be complying with the South Korea law. That does not seem to be the case with Apple yet. Google has reduced its fees on subscriptions, but not on a la carte from 30% to 15%, which is going to be effective January 1, 2022. Now recall, Google had a while ago announced that they will be enforcing mandatory IF, and they delayed that decision to March 31, 2022. And we are as of now unsure where they stand on that policy change. Interestingly, for – it’s been a while since the Apple and Google app store economics are not in sync. And so we have to see how Apple responds to the Google change in rates for subscription. All the anti-steering provision injunction ordered by the judge on the Epic case, Apple has appealed it, but – and they have not yet communicated how they intend to comply with it. So all that to say, there was a lot of things sort of have happened, happened, about to happen. It is meaningful for us. As we said in the letter, our 2021 IFPs are expected to be north of $550 million, and it will be materially higher in 2022. About 70% of our revenue comes from subscription and since Google does not yet require mandatory IF, approximately 80% of our IF fees actually goes to Apple. So a lot of moving parts, and we have not yet attempted for any impact from changes to IFPs in our outlook. Generally, in Q4, we expect very, very minimal impact. But depending on – given all the scrutiny that’s going around the world and some of the developments in the last few months, I do think this will continue to break. And it will be a beneficial change to consumers and to developers. And depending on when and what and how this breaks the outcome for us is pretty varied. So we’re watching some of these milestones that are coming up in the next few months. Hopefully, it will give us some more clarity, and we will be able to communicate a little better in our next call. The – my final thought on this is I’ve never seen a point in this IF app store ratio where there is been so much activity around the world. And at some point, Apple has to take a step back and ask themselves, whether this is still the right thing to do. And so another reason why I think this will change in some way.
Cory Carpenter:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shweta Khajuria from Evercore ISI. Please, go ahead.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay. Let me try two, please. Possible to please comment on recent development related to the lawsuit and your position on the case? And then the second question is, could you please talk about the trends you’re seeing in APAC, particularly in Japan? And you touched on Korea, but generally in APAC and the recovery in that region and what is baked in your 2022 top line growth guidance? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me take a crack at that. On the litigation, unfortunately, there is really not much that we can say about that right now. It’s an active litigation, jury – it’s a jury trial. And the jury selection started at the beginning of this week, and opening statements are going to be next Monday, this coming Monday. So this is occurring right now here in New York. And look, there is always uncertainty in a jury trial, but we feel extremely good about our position and that the plaintiff case is meritless. And we’re going to go in and defend ourselves vigorously. So we will be watching that as it plays out over the coming weeks. As far as the APAC trends go, I can say a lot more about that. And what I would say is, really, Japan is the biggest area of focus for us in Asia because that is our number two market. We derive significant revenue in the Japanese market. And really, they only recently lifted their fourth state of emergency. They had the Olympics, and after the Olympics, they had pretty significant spike in COVID from their perspective. And they have taken some pretty significant actions and really some restrictions on dining and other socializing really only lifted last week. So that geography continues to be impacted by COVID in a pretty significant way. And we have not yet seen a return to normal levels of socializing in that market. And that is impacting our business in a significant way. We have the number one and number two apps in Japan in Pairs and Tinder. And so we have meaningful presence there. Notably, the trends are not just affecting us. They are affecting all the dating apps in that market. But because we are so large in that market, it is affecting us significantly. So we are optimistic that the drivers that make Japan a great dating market with lots of potential growth continue to be there. And we think this will resolve itself over time as people in Japan start to go back out and get COVID further behind them. But it’s going to take a little bit of time. We’re watching it, and we’re optimistic, but I think it needs a little bit of time to play out. And while Japan is the market in Asia that’s the most significant impact for us, there is other markets in Asia that are also still affected mostly in East Asia, but you’ve got Singapore, Taiwan that are still affected as well by trends as a result of COVID. So given the geographic footprint of our business, which does have a significant presence in Asia, we are still dealing with impact there. And I would say if you look at kind of what’s happened around the globe given our overall global exposure, the Americas has recovered well, especially the U.S. And Europe is a little bit behind, but main products as well. And then Asia is further behind. So if you look at the trends that we’ve seen in the U.S., I think that over time, that’s going to play through in these other markets. It really is a question of timing more than anything else. And so we will see how that plays out. Another market to just point to is India. India was really impacted by COVID at steps, and we saw a significant impact in our business. We have seen a meaningful recovery in India as a result of improvement in the COVID situation there. So it is very much market by market depending on what actions the government has taken and what the level of COVID issues is. But we are seeing gradual kind of step-by-step recovery as we look at markets around the world.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay, thank you, Gary.
Gary Swidler:
You are welcome.
Operator:
Next question comes from Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets. Please, go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Great. Good morning, everyone. I’d just like to follow-up a little bit on the change to your revenue outlook for Hyperconnect and perhaps just expand a little bit on the near-term trends you’re seeing there across both of the apps? I know there was a little bit of color in the letter, but anything else that you could add would be great? And then just more broadly, any material change to your mid to long-term outlook for the opportunity for that business? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Alright. Let me take a crack at that one, too, and Shar can certainly jump in. But as I went through and I make sure I mentioned as well, there are really kind of three things that have led to the lower-than-expected revenue for Hyperconnect. And it’s really focused on the main revenue-generating app Azar, which is a one-to-one video experience. The first is COVID. Hyperconnect and Azar have significant presence in Asia and the Middle East. And as I just talked about, COVID continues to be an issue in many of those markets. And you’ve got a lot of people living at home with their family, spending a lot of time at home. And it has changed the interaction of the consumer with the one-to-one video chat app at Azar. And so we’re looking to evolve the app in ways that change the experience and make it more conducive in the current environment. I think that’s kind of the first piece of it. The second piece of it is on the marketing front. Azar, there is a lot of performance marketing as we’ve talked about in other context. The marketing environment has become both more competitive and also more challenging as a result of changes that Apple has made around IDFA. So that’s the second piece of what’s going on. And then the third piece is they have had some product initiatives that have been delayed, and the take-up has not been as quick as we had hoped. And so there is some product things that are happening there as well. So, all three of those things have impacted the Azar performance, the Hyperconnect performance. I would tell you that we are not happy at all that we missed our expectations for Q3 and that we had to lower them for Q4. As Shar mentioned, we sent a team over there finally and spent a couple of weeks with Hyperconnect working through product roadmaps, marketing roadmaps and adjusting things to reverse the trends. We are confident that working closely with them, we are going to be able to return the business to growth. But it’s going to take some time. I think the current trends are going to persist into the first part of 2022. And we are expecting that there will be some return to growth in the latter part of next year. As Shar also said in her remarks, even with that short-term softness, we are still very optimistic about the long-term prospects for Hyperconnect. It can contribute extremely significantly to the long-term growth of the overall Match Group. There is many ways that we can do that. We think that we can leverage video, audio, AI capabilities that they have got, things in moderation and safety. So, there is a number of things that we are working very hard at leveraging. And so we are really trying to do both things at once, both adjust the product and marketing roadmaps around their existing apps and also leverage their capabilities across our portfolio. And then you have got Single Town and some of the new metaverse elements and the experience that we are seeing in that beta test. And that is something that potentially we can build into either a standalone app and/or potentially leverage that user experience into some of our apps in the portfolio. So, there are a lot of things going on in Hyperconnect. We need to make progress in all three of those areas. We are working extremely diligently on it. The team there is working extremely diligently on it. And so even though there is some short-term pressure on the business, our long-term thesis and excitement around it remains completely intact, if not even stronger than it was months ago when we first made the acquisition. So, we just got work to do, and we are working away at it.
Dan Salmon:
Great. If I could just follow-up on one thing, Gary, you mentioned the impact on performance marketing and ATG on that asset, but I don’t think you mentioned it as being material to the rest of your business around the world. Is that a function of you relying – that business relying a little bit more on performance advertising, app install ads, that type of thing to drive new users, whereas maybe Tinder, Hinge and the others tend to be a bit more viral in nature?
Gary Swidler:
Yes. I mean it varies by our business depending on what the marketing approach is. So, as you rightly said, Hyperconnect is feeling it because their marketing approach is impacted by the elimination of IDFA. We are feeling it in other parts of our business, too. We are feeling it at Match and Meetic, which are significant marketers as well and reliance on marketing. We found good, creative ways to work around it to some extent and offset some of the impact. But there is still impact in businesses that rely heavily on marketing. So, all of that baked into our numbers and our performance that you are seeing for this year and our outlook for Q4 and into next year, we have included all of that. It’s not very significant to us, but there is some impact. And we are not able to outrun it completely, but through creativity and some good solves and adjusting channels and so forth, we are able to offset some of the impacts. So, all of our numbers include the impact, but it is a new fact of life that we are dealing with across our business. And our marketing teams are doing a great job finding a way to offset it wherever they can.
Dan Salmon:
That’s great. Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Good morning. On Hinge, great growth. I am curious kind of if you could describe the next chapter of the rollout for Hinge in – I think everyone is enjoying the deleted commercials you have got going.
Shar Dubey:
Thanks, Brent. Yes, we have been super excited about Hinge, and it’s been a great growth driver for us. But it’s still, as I have said before, only exists in select English-speaking markets. And much of that growth has been user growth in those markets and some really good work they have done this year on monetization. They still have ways to go in these markets as well as on monetization. But one of our key strategies for next year is for Hinge to enter non-English speaking markets. We are planning to build translation and localization capabilities. We are going to start the international expansion for Hinge next year. It will likely begin in some markets in Europe and then a more broader global rollout over time. As you mentioned, their marketing campaigns and particularly, the design to be deleted tagline has really resonated with consumers. And the Hinge team continues to differentiate themselves on the product. And we do think that product experience Hinge is building is very well suited for international markets. So, next year is going to be exciting for Hinge.
Brent Thill:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great. Thanks. Just one question, what are the puts and takes for top line growth to be above kind of the initial guide of around 20% year-over-year growth? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
So John, I would say there is probably two key things to think about that could drive 2022 top line higher than what we have discussed so far. The first thing is we have some really bold and big initiatives planned for Tinder next year, especially around virtual goods and some other areas as well. And the outlook that we have given doesn’t assume a meaningful step function impact, a home run or really meaningful impact from any of those initiatives. So, we are waiting to see as we roll these initiatives out how they evolve, how they perform, and then we can adjust accordingly depending on that. But the way we approach our outlook is to not factor in something that’s kind of off the charts unexpected that we haven’t seen previously or have – or don’t have reasons to expect. So, we will see how it goes, and we obviously always update as we see improving trends in the business. And the second thing is around COVID, and I am sure we are all tired of talking about it and hearing about it and everything else. But the reality is the dating category as a whole remains impacted by the fact that people’s socializing behaviors, how much they are going out, how much they are meeting other people, how much risk they are going to take in going out with people has not returned to pre-COVID levels. I am sure you and everyone else on the phone knows this from their own experiences. You are going out more than you were, but not as much as you used to. You are traveling more, but not as much as you used to. And so we are waiting to see how the behavior has evolved and where we get to versus the pre-COVID levels, and it varies by country. I talked about Japan and the U.S. and certain parts of the U.S., certainly, it is stronger than in other parts. Some people would take more risk and are more comfortable than other people. So, we want to see where the world kind of normalizes back to if you can use that term, and that will affect our outlook for 2022 and our performance for 2022. Right now, the way we have forecasted really assumes that current behaviors don’t change that much, but the levels of socializing that are going on now kind of stay this way through the course of next year. Maybe they improved slightly depending on markets. But in general, we are not assuming a massive change versus current behaviors. That could prove to be too conservative. But right now, we don’t see a full bounce back occurring at the moment. And so we are not assuming a change in that for 2022. So, we will see how this evolves. It’s something that we are watching very closely. But that’s another place where we could see some improvement versus our current outlook depending on how people’s behaviors start to adjust.
John Blackledge:
Thank you. Thanks so much.
Operator:
The next question comes from Youssef Squali with Truist. Please go ahead.
Youssef Squali:
Great. Thank you for taking the questions. Two, please. Actually, just to double-click on that last question, Gary. I was wondering if you can maybe expand on what’s baked into your mid to high-teens growth, particularly around payers and RPP for Tinder and non-Tinder brands? And then have your labor cost increases had any – or has labor cost, not yours, but just labor cost increases had any material impacts on your operations so far? I think you called out in the letter that you may choose to invest further in attracting and retaining talent next year. Any more color there would be super helpful. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Yes. I mean, on the second question around labor costs, we like many companies, are seeing a very competitive job market, especially for tech talent, especially for engineers. It varies by market, but there certainly are markets where we are seeing a significant amount of pressure. And we are having to react to that and want to protect our franchise. We want to retain our key talent and then hiring new talent, either to grow the business or as a replacement for people who may leave has become much more competitive, and costs are going up. So, we have seen that occur throughout 2021. And right now, we don’t see any significant shift in that trend as we head into 2022. So, you never know what the future holds, but sitting here today, as we have put together our initial outlook for 2022, we are assuming that those trends are going to persist. And we are going to need to continue to invest in our talent to continue to build the business we want to build. And we are prepared to do that because that is long-term critical to our business and its success. So, that is something that we are dealing with as many companies are, and we will continue to be thoughtful around it. As far as your first question, the mid to high-teens growth, I described a little bit about something that could drive to the upside. And look, our expectation is for Tinder to continue to perform very, very well, for Hinge as it both expands into international market, non-English speaking markets. But also, there is significant opportunity for it in its current markets. So, we think both businesses should drive significant levels of growth next year. We have talked about the more established brands growing a modest amount. That is still our goal for next year as well. We have also talked about some pressures we are facing, for example, in the Japanese market and how that’s going to evolve. That’s important to our Pairs business and the performance of Pairs for next year and a little bit remains to be seen how the Japanese consumer evolves and how they emerge out of COVID. So, that’s another factor in our business. We also have talked a little bit about rolling out live streaming at a number of our businesses and how that takes place in OkCupid and BLK and other business where we plan to roll out live streaming. So, there is a number of things that we have made some assumptions around. We have tried to make the most realistic assumptions we can. But general trends like COVID or recovering markets like Japan are certainly open for interpretation as are the success of our initiatives, whether they are at Tinder or whether they are some of our new initiatives like live streaming and a couple of our brands. So, we are going to see how that all plays out, which is why we always give this initial outlook here on our Q3 call and sort of tell you what we think we are going to see next year. But we will give you a much more precise view of things when we get to February after we have seen some of these initiatives start to roll out and once we have three more months of performance and COVID recovery and everything else. So, it’s the best we can do now. It’s our best set of assumptions sitting here today, but subject to refinement as there are many, many moving parts. And that’s before you can get to the EBITDA side with app stores and everything else that’s happening that we have talked about extensively. So, we try to give our best outlook, and that’s what we have done today. But we will refine it as we get closer to the beginning of next year.
Youssef Squali:
That’s good color. Thanks Gary.
Operator:
The next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Justin Patterson:
Great. Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to go back to virtual currency and the virtual goods ecosystem. How should we envision the pace of just that rolling out over time? And then when you look at the trading mechanics and just more virtual goods as a whole, what are the fundamental elements you need to get right to scale that and just create an efficient economy? And then the final point about that, how should we think about sizing that opportunity, the incrementality of the business over time? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
I can take that, Gary. Okay. So, the virtual currency or the coins is something we think of as an infrastructure thing that’s going to be necessary eventually for virtual goods. And that particular component is currently testing, and we should have it sorted out in the next few months. Now, virtual goods, the team is working on a very Tinder-specific version of virtual goods that will help users with both self-expression as well as the ability to stand out, particularly in a one-to-many surface area that explore experiences will enable. And so the way we envision virtual goods is it is something that users will be able to collect as well as give and gift to others. And so there is a lot of – in addition to this virtual currency, which is going to be a big component of what enables virtual goods, we do have to get the categorization of the goods and the design of it right. We have to create a value structure and a currency for these goods. And most importantly, to build the right experience that allows users to showcase them on the app in the right way. And so all of that is the plan for 2022. And the plan is we build all of this out, test it out, learn it, refine it, work out the teams in a couple of markets. And then if we get this right, I do think this could be a multiyear revenue vector for Tinder, which doesn’t exist today. And so a lot of work done, but we are very optimistic that this is going to be a really fun thing on Tinder.
Justin Patterson:
Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
I think that was the last call for us. Thank you all very much. Have a wonderful holiday season, and thanks again for joining us today.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Match Group Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Bill Archer, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.
Bill Archer:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today’s call will be led by CEO, Shar Dubey; and COO, Gary Swidler. They will make a few brief remarks and then we’ll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Shar.
Shar Dubey:
Thank you, Bill. Good morning, and thank you for joining the call today. Gary and I are once again doing this from our offices here in Dallas. And while our offices are not fully open yet, we did resume some travel and in-person meetings in Q2 as the vast majority of our employees got vaccinated. And this optimism was also reflected in the sentiment of our users, particularly in the U.S. and parts of Europe. As a result, every one of our major brands grew revenue in Q2, collectively delivering 27% year-over-year growth. And we have solid momentum as we enter the second half of the year. As much as I'm ready for COVID to no longer be a topic of discussion. It does appear that we have to live with it for a little while longer. At the end of the day, widespread global vaccinations are really the only way out of this pandemic for us, which is why our brands have been particularly active these past few months, collaborating with the White House in the U.S. and the government and the UK, France and Ireland on PSA's and vaccine information campaigns, and even a summer rapid about the vaccine. Turns out daters are open to and are getting vaccinated at higher rates than the average population, which is certainly a very good thing. And vaccine badgers have become a very attractive feature on many of our platforms. In recent weeks, we have been monitoring the surge of the Delta variant and the various restrictions in countries, particularly in Asia. We've learned a lot these past 16 months about the impact of case surges and restrictions to mobility, uncertainty driving new cycles, et cetera, on our metrics and business and various parts of the world. And our confidence in the continued resilience of our business is based on what we've seen. People around the globe have continued to turn to our products for conversations, flirtations first video dates, real life dates. And for me, one of the exciting things about this quarter was Tinder's product launches, which are part of an app experience transformation journey that quite frankly, we haven't undertaken since its very early days. The team there is executing really well, carefully testing the building blocks of this transformation roadmap. It's been super encouraging to see the promising engagement metrics with these new products. And Tinder subscribers/payer additions in Q2 were amongst some of the highest we've seen. And this momentum has continued into July. In the second quarter we also closed the Hyperconnect deal. And even though travel restrictions have prevented us from meeting in person, our teams have quickly mobilized to collaborate on a number of exciting potential synergies. Near term, our priorities are to both help calibrate and collaborate, to drive profitable growth for hyperconnects Azar and Hakuna apps, and lay out the broader strategy and roadmap for social discovery. We are also starting the work to roll out hyperconnects video, audio, and AI technologies onto our platforms over the next several months. Longer term, there was much about this acquisition that excites us. We expect Asia-Pacific will soon contribute over 20% of our overall revenue and still offers the biggest growth opportunity, given where the category awareness and penetration stands today. And Hyperconnect gives us a strong, talented team and footprint in the region. The more I learn about the AR, the conversational AI and other technologies that our team and incubation lab has been working on, the more I'm excited about the ability to leverage this on our dating platforms to provide a richer, more akin to real life experience online. Everything from self-expression to getting to know each other, can be transformed. One of the holy grails for us in online dating has always been to bridge the disconnect that happens between people chatting online and then meeting someone in person. And these technologies will eventually allow us to build experiences that will help people determine if they have that much elusive chemistry or not. And so, as we said in the letter, our ultimate vision here is for people never have to go on a bad first date again. Finally, as part of our continuing journey as a fully independent company, we released our first impact report in Q2. I have always felt lucky to have spent much of my career at a company with such a fundamental and important social mission of bringing people together and helping them find dates, and relationships, and love and marriage. We've always been inspired by the success stories of our members, the millions of babies born and love that has been forged by our platforms. And in this annual report, in addition to the social work that we do, we are committed to sharing our performance on ESG metrics, and progress and relevant impact areas, including the very important work to develop leading technology and solutions for online safety. I feel very good about where we are as a company, as a business and I look forward to continuing to deliver on our vision and goals. And while the Delta variant surge is a reminder that we aren't fully out of the pandemic woods yet, we do have more data and understanding to be able to manage through it with agility. And with that, I will hand it over to Gary to talk more about the quarter.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Shar. It's great to be here again in person with you and the team in Dallas today. Seeing colleagues working together makes me very much look forward to days when the office will be filled with activity once again. We had a terrific Q2 with 27% year-over-year total revenue growth, the strongest growth the company has achieved since 2018. Non-Tinder brands grew direct revenue 28% year-over-year in the quarter, the sixth consecutive quarter, where these brands grew in aggregate. Hinge, POF LIVE, and our BLK and Chispa apps continued to perform very well. Hinge grew revenue, nearly 150% in the quarter, driven by strength in both subscription and a la carte, led by Roses and Standouts. At Tinder propensity to pay has improved significantly, which you can see in the a la carte revenue strength, as well as overall payer numbers. Tinder saw a notable acceleration in year-over-year direct revenue growth to 26% in Q2, up from 18% year-over-year growth last quarter and 13% year-over-year growth in Q4 2020. Our direct revenue grew 25% in the Americas; 28% in Europe and 31% in APAC and other. Our U.S. performance is exceptionally strong. And our performance in Europe is trailing slightly behind the U.S., consistent with the pace of the recovery there. APAC and other growth also was solid in Q2. But a number of markets there, including important ones for us like Japan, are now facing increased COVID restrictions. Note that we are now disclosing the performance of the business in three geographic regions to give investors better insight into our results. Indirect revenue grew 54% year-over-year, marking a third consecutive strong quarter as the advertising market generally and our direct sales specifically were very strong. Also note that we closed the acquisition of Hyperconnect in mid June. So our metrics reflect about two weeks of contribution. Net of certain one-time purchase accounting adjustments, Hyperconnect contributed $4.3 million of revenue in Q2. We have broken this information out in the shareholder letter, so you can see what Match Group X Hyperconnect and what Hyperconnect itself delivered in Q2. We have also moved to disclosing payers and monthly revenue per payer. In the quarter, total payers reached 15 million, which was an increase of 15% from Q2 2020. Growth was strong in all geographies, up 16% year-over-year in the Americas, 13% in Europe, and 17% in APAC and other. Tinder payers were up 17% year-over-year in Q2. For comparison purposes, in Q2 average subscribers increased 1.3 million over the prior year to 11.4 million, representing 13% year-over-year growth. Tinder's average subscribers were up just under 1.1 million or 17% year-over-year and came in at 7.2 million in total. This was the best Tinder year-over-year subscriber growth since the pandemic began and was very strong sequentially as well. All other brand average subscribers were up 240,000 or 6% year-over-year. Revenue per payer increased 10% year-over-year to $15.46. [ph] It was up 8% in the Americas, 13% in Europe, and 12% in APAC and other. RPP was up 8% year-over-year at Tinder. RPP derived three percentage points of growth, $0.53 from foreign exchange impacts in the quarter. At Tinder, Platinum sales and strengthen a la carte contributed to RPP growth. Continued strong performance of PlentyOfFish live streaming business and Hinge’s a la carte features contributed to the strength in RPP at the established and emerging brands respectively. Total company ARPU was up 10% year-over-year to $0.65. Non-Tinder brands ARPU growth was extremely strong again this quarter, up 16% year-over-year and Tinder ARPU was up 7% year-over-year. Operating income grew 7% and EBITDA grew 15% year-over-year in Q2. EBITDA margins were 37%. Net of purchase accounting adjustments, Hyperconnect reduced Match Group EBITDA by $3 million in Q2 from $266 million to $263 million. Overall expenses including SBC expense increased to 70% of revenue compared to 65% in Q2 2020 when we pulled back on spending as the pandemic took hold. Cost of revenue grew 30% year-over-year impacted by higher IAP fees, web hosting costs and fees related to live-streaming video at PlentyOfFish. Sales and marketing spend was up $38 million or 42% year-over-year, close to what we had anticipated and represented 18% of total revenue in Q2, as many of our brands spent into reopenings. Product development costs grew 24% year-over-year as we increased headcount at several brands, mainly Tinder and Hinge. G&A expense rose 66% year-over-year and comprised 16% of revenue. G&A in Q2 included $4 million of professional fees and $9 million of stock-based comp expense, both related to the acquisition of Hyperconnect. Our gross leverage declined to 3.9 times at the end of Q2, while our net leverage was 3.7 times as we use cash on hand for a portion of the consideration in the Hyperconnect purchase. We're pleased to see both gross and net leverage below four times and we're on track for net leverage below three times by the end of 2021. For Q3, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $790 million to $805 million, which would represent 23% to 26% year-over-year growth. That's solid growth of what was a very strong Q3, 2020 as daters emerged from the initial wave of lockdowns in North America and Europe and Asia had COVID under control. We expect EBITDA of $275 million to $280 million in Q3. This reflects an additional $15 million of costs in the second half of the year versus our prior expectations for government relations and other advocacy related to app store practices and for legal matters, including the former Tinder employee litigation, as we prepare for a fall trial. We think plaintiff's claims in that case are totally without merit and are fully prepared to defend ourselves vigorously to the end. We currently expect that the trial will conclude by the end of the year and the meaningful costs we've incurred related to this lawsuit should not recur beyond 2021. For the second half of the year, we expect Hyperconnect to contribute $125 million to $135 million of revenue. This outlook reflects some pullback, primarily due to COVID as well as our decision to focus the Hyperconnect team on delivering video and other technology that we can implement across the rest of our portfolio. We expect at least two of our brands to make use of Hyperconnect technology before the end of 2021 and a number of others to implement Hyperconnect capabilities by year end 2022. As a result of this focus on building tech that our other brands can use. We expect Hyperconnect to remain roughly breakeven from an EBITDA standpoint in Q3 and Q4 2021. For the company as a whole, we expect full your revenue of just above $3 billion including Hyperconnect, exceeding the high end of our previously stated range. This reflects better than expected performance at our dating brands in the first half of 2021 and anticipate second half year-over-year growth north of 25%. Approximately 20% of Tinder, single digits at the established brands and north of a 100% at the emerging brands including the contribution from Hyperconnect. From an EBITDA perspective, we now expect a range for the full year of $1.045 billion to $1.06 billion. This outlook incorporates Google's recent change in policy to enable our brands to opt out of mandatory in-app billing until at least March, 2022. It also includes the previously mentioned additional legal costs and higher spend for government relations and advocacy to encourage the app stores to reduce their fees. We're increasingly confident that the lawsuits and investigations around the globe related to app store practices will result in changes to those policies in the not-too-distant future. We've had an outstanding first half of the year where we've accomplished a great deal. Tinder's growth has accelerated, and the product is evolving in exciting ways that we expect will present real revenue opportunities for us over time. Hinge and our other newer apps continue to exceed our expectations. And our more established brands are performing well. Importantly, our services are now more in demand than ever as people around the world seek social connection online, whether in the form of companionship, romance or love. With Hyperconnect, our portfolio is increasingly well positioned to deliver on our mission of connecting people, which we expect will enable us to continue to deliver strong results for our stakeholders. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Cory Carpenter from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Thanks for the questions. I had one for Shar and one for Gary. For Shar, on the reopening, hoping you could expand a bit on what impact you're seeing to user behavior in markets like the U.S. where COVID in Delta are flaring up a bit recently. And then Gary hoping you could talk about some of the puts and takes driving your expectation for Tinder revenue growth of close to 20% in the second half? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
Good morning, Corey. Yes, about the Delta and case surges, so one of the things to note is more than case surges itself, we're actually watching mobility trends and restrictions more closely because they seem to have a larger effect. As vaccination rates gain steam first in the U.S. and then in Europe, we saw mobility increase and it reflected in our business trends in Q2. In a few – in actually a several markets in Asia even today, including Japan, which is our second largest revenue market, there are different degrees of lockdowns and restrictions in place. And that certainly impacts mobility and our metrics. With respect to what's going on in the U.S. with the Delta surges in recent weeks. So far, they don't appear to have any impact on mobility and they may not unless real restrictions are put in place. And generally we don't see mask mandates as causing mobility restrictions, mostly partial and full lockdown seem to. So for instance, in UK where the Delta surged and it has already peaked and it's on its way down because restrictions were easing during this period, mobility kept increasing and we didn't really see much impact to our metrics here. So that's kind of how we think about what's going on in the market today.
Gary Swidler:
And then Corey, as far as our outlook for Tinder revenue in the back half of the year, our outlook sitting here today is for just north of 20% top-line growth for Tinder in the second half of 2021, which is meaningfully higher than what it was last year. If you break it down further into the quarters, I think Q3 growth will probably be just under the 20% mark because last year, if you remember, Q3 was very strong. North America and Europe were coming out of the lockdowns and people got back outside, started being active again. The weather was nice and Asia had the virus under control. So you had really good conditions globally, which led to a strong Q3 last year. For Q4 this year, I'm expecting the growth to be comfortably above 20% year-over-year. But given Q4 is still a quarter away and Tinder has broad geographic exposure. The COVID risks that are still out there necessitate us being a little bit conservative. And so that's what you're seeing as we give our outlook for the back half of the year on Tinder growth.
Cory Carpenter:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Good morning. Maybe you can just talk to what is giving you confidence to raise your full year guidance from high teens to low 20%, are you seeing some conservatism in the outlook? Gary, maybe you can give us a little more color on that and I had a quick follow-up? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Look, we've had extremely strong start to the year and that's enabled us to raise our outlook twice so far this year. So we feel great about how we performed in 2021. In fact, our Q2 was really stellar, 27% revenue growth, well-balanced between Tinder and non-Tinder. So we feel really good about Q2 in particular. And I think we're very well set up for the rest of the year. So right now, sitting here, I think we have good visibility into Q3 and that is reflected in our specific guidance for the quarter. And then we're anticipating really solid, sequential revenue growth going into Q4, which would mean that we should see accelerating year-over-year Q4 growth. But as I just said to Corey, there's still some uncertainty in the environment with COVID and Delta and potentially other variants and everything else that people know much about. And so we think that a little bit of conservatism is appropriate, especially the further out that we look. And so that's all factored into the guidance we've provided.
Brent Thill:
And Gary, just to follow up, we wanted to make sure we heard this right, but it sounds like you're assuming Hinge is roughly a $250 million in revenue in 2021. Is that somewhat in the ballpark?
Gary Swidler:
So, thanks. That's a good question, actually. So when you look at that chart, that's in the letter related to the Swipe apps and PlentyOfFish live and Hinge, it really is impressive what we've been able to achieve, getting those businesses from virtually nothing to $300 million or so this year in aggregate. But the letter is a little bit unclear. And so I wanted to clarify that each of the group of Swipe apps, as well as the PlentyOfFish live streaming business are contributing at least $50 million of revenue to that $300 million this year. So Hinge is the balance of the $300 million after the two contributions of 50 plus. And as we've said before, Hinge is on track to more than double revenue in 2021 after tripled. And we gave the performance for Hinge also in the second quarter of 150% revenue growth. So the $250 million I think is high. But I've given you the components. So it should enable you, I think, to determine kind of where we think Hinge is going to be roughly for the year.
Brent Thill:
Great. Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you, guys. With all the new product initiatives around Tinder, do you see advertising playing a bigger role in the medium term, or should we mostly focus on virtual currency and a la carte monetization? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
I can take that. Thanks, Jason. So we're definitely not looking at advertising as an incremental revenue source. But we do see a la carte is becoming an increasing area of focus in addition to subscriptions. And with regards to virtual currency, it is something we're testing in a couple of small markets and we test it, we started testing it in a couple of small markets in Q2. It is currently very limited in a feature set that it covers. We are encouraged by what we've seen so far and we'll be expanding to additional markets and more feature coverage over the next few quarters. More broadly though, the Tinder experience, as I said, is evolving to include these new multi-dimensional surface areas in the app where people have new ways to discover and connect and share interests and form communities. And if you think about most of the ALC features today, things like Boost and Super Like for instance, they are designed to allow users to stand out in a one-to-one experience. And we think there are some real interesting revenue opportunities to help people stand out in these many to many experiences on the app that we're building.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you. That's helpful.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mario Lu with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Mario Lu:
Great. Thanks for taking the questions. I have two on the new payers metric. So specifically at Tinder seems like a little over 2 million users only pay a la carte versus the 7.2 million average PMCs. So is this the right way to think about it and how does this self-payer breakdown look at Hinge and just Match Group overall?
Gary Swidler:
So this is a little bit complicated. I want to try to run through it to make sure people understand. There are two reasons why payers are higher than average subscribers. The first is that payers captures non-subscriber ALC payers. But there's another reason which is the definitions of average subscribers and payers. Average subscribers represent a daily average over the quarter, while payers is the number of unique payers in a given month, and then it's average for the quarter. And so if you look at Match Group overall at our payer numbers, what you'll see is that the non-subscriber ALC payers are actually a relatively small part of the difference between average subscribers and payers. It's more a function of the way payers are counted that accounts for payers being higher than average subscribers. So again, ALC payers that our non-subscribers are a relatively small piece of that disparity. Now, that being said, we do think that as we expand our ALC monetization efforts and we add virtual currency, especially in Asia Pacific, and now we bring on Hyperconnect, which has a lot of non-subscriber ALC payers. The percentage of non-subscriber ALC payers is going to increase. So you'll start to see that as we move forward into the year. I'd encourage you to look at the specific definitions which we provided of average subscribers as well as payers. And if you have further questions on this, we're happy to try to take this offline and go through some examples, because I know intuitively it's not that obvious. But again, the definitions are what's accounting for a large part of the gap.
Mario Lu:
Okay. Yes, that's helpful. And then just one more on the revenue per payer by geo. So a little bit surprised to see APAC and other to be relatively in line with the Americas and Europe at an absolute level. So just curious if there's any differences in spending by geo to point out, for example, does APAC and other tend to spend mostly on a la carte and not in subscription? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Yes. So it's a good question. We have relatively consistent RPP in APAC compared to the Americas and Europe which is really a reflection of a couple of things. One is that Pairs in Japan is our highest RPP dating business. So that's definitely helping on the RPP and APAC. And then we actually have relative price parody between Tinder and APAC and our other geographies. So you don't see much of a disparity. And so those two things taken together as a result, APAC, RPP is pretty similar to the rest of the world. As far as kind of what the mix is, Pairs tends to be a subscription business as does Tinder in APAC today. However, as we've talked about, we're experimenting with ways to increase the a la carte consumption at Tinder through virtual currency and other product innovations. We're early days for all of that, but we think we can improve payer penetration by adjusting our monetization strategies. And so that's something that you may very well see over time.
Mario Lu:
Great. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Next question, please.
Operator:
Next question comes from Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Hey, good morning, everyone. I jumped on a little bit late. So hopefully this one wasn't covered. But I just wanted to follow up on one of the comments in the letter where you spoke about the HyperX Group at Hyperconnect. Sounds like a little bit of a lab and I'd love to learn just a little bit more about some of the products that are working on currently about the group itself. Maybe broad strategic goals, number of employees. And is that the type of thing that you see as new and incremental to Match that Hyperconnect brings as well?
Shar Dubey:
Sure. Thanks Dan, I can take this. So generally, as we've said Hyperconnect has a number of technology assets we’re already planning to deploy on our platforms, video, audio, some AI tools for moderation, et cetera. But within Hyperconnect, HyperX is a technology incubation lab. And some of the tech assets they developed are deployed on Azar and Hakuna. And they also incubate new apps. In fact, Hakuna was a HyperX incubation. I am actually, really, excited about some of the technology elements they've been working on, AR features, self-expression tools, conversational AI, and a number of what we would consider a metaverse elements, which have the element to transform the online meeting and getting to know each other process. And so, the technology areas of innovation at HyperX is actually very incremental and additive to Match Group. And we do believe it will have a significant impact, both as on their apps as standalone business, but also as a technology enabler for our other platforms and businesses.
Dan Salmon:
That's great. Thank you, Shar.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay. Thank you. Could you please help us understand the guidance for Hyperconnect piece? So, at the time of acquisition we were expecting about 40% to 50% growth, the revised guidance is slightly less than that. You called that pull back from COVID. Any additional color, is that just COVID? Is there a level of conservatism there? And then the follow-up to that is how are you expecting to manage costs at breakeven for the back half, but any additional color on the potential of EBITDA margins for that business would be great? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Why don't I take that one? So, there are a few things that are leading to somewhat lower growth at Hyperconnect this year than what we expected back in February. The first thing which you rightly pointed out was they have a large footprint in APAC. And as we've talked about and is well documented, COVID has hit APAC much more heavily this year than it did in 2020. And so, there is COVID impact that is being felt in their performance. There is also a much more challenging marketing environment. You've got IDFA, you've got a more crowded marketplace. And so, as a result of these factors, the Hyperconnect team has been a bit less aggressive in some of their key markets this year than we were initially anticipating. On top of that, as Shar has talked about, we have become increasingly excited about the opportunities to apply various Hyperconnect technologies to our other platforms. And we see significant synergies and upside from that. And so that's become a higher priority for us and for the Hyperconnect team in the short term. And we've encouraged them to focus resources on the tech integration with Match Group. So, we still expect Hyperconnect to perform well this year and post solid revenue growth, but it is going to be a little bit lower than we initially saw. As far as the costs, we communicated that we thought over time, margins of Hyperconnect could get into the upper 20s, 30% range, and nothing has really changed our view on that over the longer term. But as I just said, shorter term, we're not focused on margin. We believe that the company will still operate at a breakeven pace. But we want to focus on the synergies. And so that's what we're focused on, certainly for the rest of this year and into next year. And then I expect that the margins will gradually start to improve as we make the turn through 2020. And we'll communicate more about that likely on our next call, as we start to get some sense of what we think 2020 is going to – 2022, I'm sorry, is going to be for the company.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay. Thanks Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Sure.
Operator:
The next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Justin Patterson:
Great. Thank you. One on the established brands, if I can, what have been the biggest drivers of growth versus 2019 levels? And when you looked down the road, where do you see further opportunities to just continue driving growth from these brands and broaden the audience? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
Sure. Thanks Justin. I can take this. So, with these established brands, there are a few different stories here. Keep in mind the established brands used to be desktop first brands and they have all reimagined the product as mobile first experiences. And some of them like Match and Meetic, for instance, have shifted their business model from the hard paywall to more premium experiences, which has meaningfully increased engagement and conversion. And apps like POF have added new experiences like POF Live, which has created a new revenue stream. OkCupid continues to expand to new international markets. And generally, they've also sharpened their marketing to become more resonant and relevant to their core audience. So now as they continue to execute, they should be able to expand the category and their core user base and deliver modest growth we think.
Justin Patterson:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Lauren Schenk:
Great. Thanks. Two for Gary if I can. I think you mentioned the Google Apps were a few changes that was originally supposed to come into effect in the fourth quarter being pushed to March in 2022. I think previously you were embedding some impact from that change in the fourth quarter EBITDA guide. So just want to confirm that that upside was sort of flowed through and maybe the $15 million in incremental legal expenses offsetting that, but just want to clarify that. And then generally how you're feeling about that risk heading into March next year? And any potential workarounds? And then secondly, just if you could give us your thoughts on the status of the of the former Tinder employee litigation and how you see that progressing through the course of the year? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. So, on the Google fees in the fourth quarter, I think, what we said previously is that where we ended up on the, our EBITDA ranges would be impacted on whether the Google change actually occurred or not. And at this point, they've now, about a few weeks ago, they basically said they are pushing back the deadline for compliance until March 31, next year. So that cost is obviously not going to hit us in Q4. And so now what we've done is we've given a more up to date EBITDA outlook the rest of the year, which reflects a lot of puts and takes. You've got the legal and GR costs that you mentioned, and there's more things moving around in there and then Google is not in there anymore. And so, this is our kind of our latest and greatest with everything we know sitting here today, factored in. Frankly, I don't know for sure if that $15 million of extra-legal and GR is going to get spent. But we've embedded it. So, I think the costs are relatively fully loaded at this point for the rest of the year. Then in terms of potential workarounds, we continue to talk to Google, we have a good relationship with them, it's very collaborative. And so, we'll see how that all evolves. That being said, as you probably know, there are many, many investigations, and lawsuits and regulatory actions around the world in many jurisdictions, in many countries related App Store practices generally. And so, as a result of that we're increasingly optimistic that there's going to be a change in App Store policies one way or another at some point in the not-too-distant future. And so, we'll see where we are, as time progresses and we'll keep everybody updated on our latest thinking on this. As far as the Tinder former employee litigation goes, ultimately, it's an ongoing litigation, so there's not too much that we can really provide in terms of details on that. What I can say is that we ran a process that involved two globally recognized, highly regarded investment banks that listened to everything that was now plaintiffs in this case had to say about the business, went through an exhaustive analysis and those banks ultimately came up with a valuation of Tinder at the time that was in line with where Wall Street analysts, like those who are on the phone thought Tinder was valued. So, it wasn't particularly surprising from that standpoint. And so, we're confident in our case and that we think their case is completely meritless. And so, we're looking forward to getting to the trial later in the fall and fighting this to the end. And so that's our plan and we remain optimistic.
Lauren Schenk:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
And the last questionnaire today will be John Blackledge with Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great. Thanks. Just curious if Hinge’s 21 topline growth includes non-English-speaking markets, or if those markets are still kind of early-stage from a monetization perspective? And also, how does the runway for growth at Hinge look kind of longer term? And do you view Hinge as complimentary or cannibalistic, or a bit of both to Tinder over time? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Yes, I can take that. So right now, Hinge is only available in a few English-speaking markets. So much of 2021 revenue growth has largely been a combination of user growth, concentrated in medium and large cities in these markets, as well as the really good work the team has done on developing monetization and revenue features. So, there's still plenty of room for both user and monetization growth in these limited English-speaking markets that currently are in. Our plan is in 2022 to translate and localize the app and start the journey of expansion into international markets. So, longer term, it's a combination of further expansion in existing markets, increasing footprint in international markets and continued education on monetization features that will drive strong growth in the coming years. And we're very excited for what is still to come at Hinge. It is a uniquely, differentiated product that resonates to its audience that is a little serious intent and outcome driven. This is why their tagline designed to be deleted, resonates with this audience set. We have found very little evidence on cannibalization Tinder is still the number one dating app for anybody starting out dating particularly among the young. But Hinge is a great alternative app and a second app for people who are looking for a more serious, intent dating. And so, we do think there is a real play for both Tinder and Tinder in our portfolio.
Shar Dubey:
I think that was – sorry.
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
Sorry. Thank you. That was our last question. We thank you again for joining the call. Have a great month.
Operator:
Again, the conference call has ended. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. And welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Bill Archer, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Bill Archer:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Shar Dubey; and our CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. They will make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we begin, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Shar.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Thank you, Bill. Good morning, and thank you all for joining the call today. First time in well over a year, Gary and I are actually doing this call from the same location. We're fully vaccinated. We've gotten on planes, which speaks to the optimism we're feeling about the situation here in the U.S. Our Q1 results reflect that. The 23% year-over-year growth in revenue came through reacceleration of Tinder, with 18% growth and non-Tinder brands, posting a growth rate of 30%. The highest those brands have achieved since our IPO in 2015. A big driver of this momentum is the U.S., where we have seen increases across all our brands as the quarter went on. The vaccination rates and control over the COVID cases these last few months have resulted in our users feeling more confident about their dating lives. However, I've also gotten a tough reminder that we're still not out of the woods with this pandemic. Just a couple months ago, we were feeling very good about the trends in India, which as you know has suffered last year. These last few weeks, my days have all started with grim news from India, where we have a team and I still personally have a lot of friends and family including my parents. The dire situation in India and somewhat worsening conditions in countries like Brazil, and even Japan that is going through its third emergency declaration, is a reminder that we've not gotten past the pandemic in much of the world, and things could still turn on a dime. So we are still operating with the degree of uncertainty. But back to the parts we actually have more control over. Tinder made progress in Q1 across users, subscribers and ARPU and the trends look good. But what's more exciting to me is the roadmap that Jim Lanzone now been the CEO at Tinder since late-summer last year, has laid out, the journey to transform that Tinder experience from a swipe match message funnel, to a more multi-dimensional and ritual one with more ways to self-express, discover, flirt and connect. And this in turn, we think will open up new opportunities for increased engagement and monetization through 2022 and beyond. Hinge continues to gain traction in the English-speaking market that it is available in. In addition to the progress they've made on revenue recently, the focus for Hinge is on outcomes, with its tagline designed to be deleted. They have a track record of innovation that supports their brand promise of getting people off their phones and out on great dates. Features such as Photo Prompts, Most Compatible, Your Turn, We Met and most recently, they introduced Prompt packs into the video chat experience, which are being used in approximately 20% of video dates. Also, this year Hinge announced Hinge Labs, an in-house research team that is dedicated to helping daters be more successful. Research there is fueling what we believe will be an exciting second half of the year, focusing on among other things, an expansion of its what works guidance program for users who need help getting out on great dates. Again, in-line with their focus on outcomes for their users. Finally, the team has been making progress on the plans for the pending Hyperconnect acquisition and post-closing integration, including the various regulatory approvals needed. We still hope to be able to close by the end of Q2. And while the growing trend of isolation and loneliness was already a thing across many parts of the world, the pandemic has really escalated its impact on mental health. Growing popularity of social discovery categories is a testament to the need for more human interaction, companionship connections. And while our apps have traditionally focused on romantic connections, we do think we can lend our expertise in the area of making meaningful connections among people you don't know in this newer, evolving adjacent category. We think we can leverage our product jobs as well as our Western market experience, combined the Hyperconnect's video and AI technology and their APAC market experience. And we have an opportunity to succeed in both solving a social need and expanding our business footprint. As we've said all year, we remain agile and ready to react to changing conditions. Sitting here today, there are many reasons for us to feel optimistic about our social lives and hence our business. Although the situation and a few parts of the world gives us appropriate pause about the uncertainty that still exists. If nothing else, this past year has reinforced the urgency of our mission to work tirelessly on products that help people find meaningful connections, love and relationships around the world. And with that, I'm going to hand it over to Gary to talk more about the quarter.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Shar. It's great to be here in-person with you in the team in Dallas today. It's been a long time coming. Before I jump into my remarks, I just want to point out that we adjusted the format of our quarterly disclosure this quarter. We combined our earnings release and shareholder letter into one document to improve convenience for shareholders and make understanding the company's results easier. I hope everyone likes the new format. And as always, we welcome any and all feedback. Additionally, we expect to make some further changes and enhancements to our disclosed financial metrics, once the Hyperconnect acquisition closes, to better reflect the key metrics of the combined business. I'll provide more details later this year. With that all said, I'm pleased to report that we had a very strong Q1 on essentially all metrics. Total revenue growth continued to accelerate to 23% year-over-year in Q1 up from 19% year-over-year in Q4 2020. Acceleration occurred at both Tinder, which grew revenue 18% and the non-Tinder brands, where direct revenue was up 30% year-over-year. All major non-Tinder brands contributed year-over-year direct revenue growth again in Q1. This was the fifth consecutive quarter of non-Tinder brands showing growth in aggregate Pairs, PlentyOfFish on the strength of live streaming and our newer brands, Hinge, Chispa and BLK 0:08:44 all grew rapidly in the quarter. Our direct revenue was evenly split between North America, which grew 24% year-over-year, and international which grew 21% year over year. Indirect revenue grew 27% year-over-year, marking a second consecutive strong quarter as the advertising market continued to improve. Average subscribers increased 1.2 million over the prior year to 11.1 million representing 12% year-over-year growth up 9% in North America and 15% internationally. Tinder's average subscribers were up just under 900,000 year-over-year or 15% and came in just shy of 7 million in total. Non-tender brands average subscribers were up over 300,000 year-over-year or 8% for the second consecutive quarter. Total company ARPU is up 9% year-over-year to $0.64, up 13% in North America and 7% internationally. We did get about $0.02 or three points of growth in the quarter from foreign exchange impacts. Tinder ARPU was up 4% year-over-year driven by platinum subscribers and additional à la carte sales. Non-Tinder brand's 18% year over year ARPU growth was remarkable, improving upon the 16% year over your growth we saw last quarter. All major brands increased ARPU year-over-year in Q1. The launch of several à la carte features and price optimization at Hinge as well as the PlentyOfFish live streaming revenue, were major contributors to the ARPU improvement again in the quarter. As always, we continue to focus on overall revenue growth, not specifically on subscriber or ARPU growth. In qQ1, we did achieve some ARPU growth, at the expense of more robust subscriber growth at some of our brands, in particular Hinge and OkCupid. Operating income grew 38% and EBITDA grew 32% year-over-year in Q1. EBITDA margins were 34%, two points higher than in q1 2020. Overall expenses dropped three points as a percentage of revenue to 72% in Q1 '21 from 75% in Q1 '20. Cost of revenue grew 25% year-over-year, impacted by higher IR fees web hosting costs and fees related to live streaming video at PlentyOfFish. Sales and marketing spend was up $20 million or 16% year-over-year, and represented 22% of total revenue in Q1, slightly lower than typical levels. Product development cost grew 27% year-over-year, as we increase headcount at several brands, notably Tinder and Hinge. G&A expense rose 11% year-over-year, and comprise only 13% of revenue versus 15% in the prior period. G&A in Q1 also included $4 million of costs related to the acquisition of Hyperconnect. Our gross and net leverage declined to 4.1 times and 3.2 times respectively, down steadily from 4.8 times and 4.6 times at the time of our separation from IAC. We're pleased to see net leverage already well below four times. We ended the quarter with $846 million of cash on hand. For Q2, we expect total revenue of $680 million to $690 million, which is which would represent 22% to 24% year over year growth. In Q2 we expect above 20% year-over-year revenue growth at both the Tinder and non-Tinder brands in aggregate. We expect EBITDA of $255 million to $260 million in Q2. We expect to spend an additional $40 million a year in sales and marketing in Q2 compared to the prior year period. Recall that spend levels were lower in Q2 2020, as the pandemic took hold. And we adjusted spending across a number of categories, most notably sales and marketing. Litigation costs were also lower in Q2 2020, as actions were delayed on account of the pandemic. Note that our outlook for Q2 '21 includes a few million dollars of legal and other expenses related to the Hyperconnect acquisition, which we expect to close in the quarter. Our outlook does not yet reflect any revenue or other contribution from Hyperconnect itself. We're delighted by the broad base strength we saw in Q1 and our improving business momentum. To be sure risks remain and some caution and outlook is still warranted. The world is not recovering at an even pace with slower vaccine rollouts, and higher case counts in many markets. Despite this, we're increasingly confident that we'll be able to deliver the high end of our previously communicated revenue and even ranges for 2021. With that I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Cory Carpenter from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Thanks for the question. Shar, could you expand on how the U.S. reopening impacted user behavior into the level of pent-up demand relative to your expectations? You called out all à la carte returning, the curious what you saw with first time subs and engagement in the U.S. specifically across the portfolio? And then, maybe a follow-up for Gary. Just hoping you could unpack some of the moving parts within North America subs this quarter, given they were down a bit from 4Q? Thanks.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Sure. Thanks, Cory. Let me start, I'll take the opportunity to maybe give some more color on the broader COVID trends and impacts. So if you recall our Feb call, we spoke to how the peak season post-Christmas and into the new year was looking much different than normal years. But as the quarter went on, and vaccination rates in the U.S. in particular picked up speed, we saw real divergence in countries like U.S. and say, Israel and UK for instance, versus the rest of the world where vaccination rates are still lower and case counts are seeing spikes. So the U.S. happens to be right now one of the few large markets where we are seeing mobility trends above pre-COVID levels. And some countries in Europe are starting to get close to that pre-COVID level too. We've mentioned before that as we see lockdowns ease and mobility improves, dating activity follows and so does propensity to pay. So as a result, we're seeing propensity to say - to pay indicators like à la carte purchases trending in the right direction across U.S. and a few markets in Western Europe as lockdowns, ease. So UK, which we had highlighted as a down market back in Feb, they've also seen a solid recovery over the past month or so, as the country emerges from lockdowns. On the other hand, what's going on in India right now can only be described as dire and tragic. And in Feb, we had called out that India was starting to rebound after a trying 2020. That rebound has obviously stalled, with mobility rates plunging over the last month. Japan and Brazil are other markets to highlight that faced headwinds during the first quarter, when lockdown's reimposed. And they're both still very low on vaccine distribution. The situation is definitely more severe in Brazil. But Japan as I mentioned, with its third emergency declaration has been again, up and down quite a bit. All this to say this gets to the general uncertainty around trying to project what is to come next with the pandemic. There are certainly some promising signs, but given the slow progress and vaccine distribution globally, as well as COVID spikes in certain countries, new variants and mutations, it's still a somewhat fluid picture around the world. It's probably also maybe worthwhile to point out a couple of things that we're noticing, as a result of COVID. We are seeing that normal seasonality patterns are not holding under COVID. And the other thing that's shaped up is the marketing landscape, which has changed. So we are seeing the pattern, particularly among retailers who have shifted much more online. Their spend has spread more evenly over the course of the year rather than concentrated around the holidays in q4. And so this has changed the seasonality in marketing economics. So for instance, this year in Q1, we did not see the typically lower rates that we normally do relative to Q4. And some of this has an impact on the Q4 to Q1. But I'm going to let Gary address that.
Gary Swidler:
Yeah. I think if you look over the last few years, actually, it's probably become a little bit outdated to think of our business is having this strong seasonality pattern in Q1, and a big jump sequentially from Q1 in terms of subs compared to Q4. I think that hasn't held actually in a while. The business is much more global now. There's different trends and factors. We do things all throughout the year. And so that way of thinking about the business probably isn't appropriate, which is why, we encourage you to look at year-over-year trends of subscribers as opposed to looking at things sequentially. So I would discourage people from focusing too much on that. So I think that pattern was already breaking away. As Shar mentioned, COVID has only a further muted that pattern. As everybody knows, in COVID kind of every day is like Groundhog Day. There's not much difference in the day in January or February versus a day in November or December. So I think that that has further come unraveled as part of COVID And because of some of these changing dynamics, we adjusted our business slightly as I mentioned in my remarks. We made some trade-offs. ARPU at the expense of some subscriber growth. And so you see that. We focused on delivering overall revenue growth. In a non-tinder brands we delivered 30% year-over-year revenue growth. In North America, we had high-20s revenue growth year-over-year. So we feel really good about the revenue growth we delivered. The components are going to vary depending on factors in the markets. As Shar also mentioned, we're seeing a more competitive marketing environment as a result of COVID with kind of always on marketing spend by a lot of retailers and others who have moved their business online. So we haven't seen as many spend opportunities, and we've had to adjust to that, which is also affecting some of the trends in our business. So the good news is we have a very dynamic business. We're very nimble, we can adjust to the trends and things that are going on in the market, particularly around marketing spend. We did it when COVID first hit back last year in March and April. We've adjusted again throughout the year with COVID, and again in the first quarter. And will continue to do that. And so you're going to see variability in our trends. Certainly when you look sequentially, as a result of us trying to manage for all of those factors, and differences in behavior. And I'm sure we're going to see differences in behavior now, as the reopening happens. You go into Q2 and Q3, and we're going to adjust our spend something that's reflected, for example, in our guidance as we look at the Q2, expectations as well. Hopefully that answers your questions, Cory. And with that, maybe we'll go to the next question.
Operator:
Next question comes from Nick Jones from Citi. Please go ahead.
Nick Jones:
Great. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe on social discovery, can you expand a little bit more on your plans within this category? How are you thinking about the opportunities within interest groups and social entertainment? Is it more of a social network approach, or more kind of a one too many approach? And then maybe lastly, you touched on how you address some of the safety concerns within these products? Thanks.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Okay, I can take it. So here's how I see it. We are in the business of helping people make meaningful connections with people you don't know. Our definition of meaningful connections generally implies a one-to-one connection. So on our dating platforms, these connections are generally the objective of romantic relationships and the intent to meet in real life. And if you think about the traditional dating, it is, discover through reviewing profiles, for instance, match, and then message chat video chat now. And the ultimate goal is to get to a one-to-one conversation that hopefully leads to a date. But technology has finally come to a point that it's now enabling people to me that interact with people more broadly and through much richer experiences online. And so social discovery, at least the bits that are interesting to us is also ultimately about a one-to-one connection and conversation. But it is more platonic and does not have the necessary expectation of meeting in real life. It's not constrained by geography or even gender for that matter. But it also follows a similar discover match message chat video chat paradigm that we have on dating apps. The difference is, because these are fun new leveraging new technology, the way you discover people in order to match and chat with them is much more social, many to many, interactive, dynamic, and in a lot of ways, much more akin to how people meet in the real world. So technology like live video, audio, et cetera has allowed these apps to build experiences for people to meet in a more social and entertaining setting online. But eventually they are at least the ones that are - the use cases that are interesting to us are eventually optimized to help you meet someone that you share something with, find something interesting to talk about and wants to continue a one-to-one conversation. And these social activities can be anything from audio forums, to multiplayer games, to watch parties to two streamers competing in a rap battle, all kinds of social activities that helps people engage and discover and learn about others, and chat. So in some ways, the easy way to think about it is these are online analogues of meeting and parties and concerts and events. And as you can imagine, some of these multi-dimensional ways of discovering people also makes a lot of sense on some of our larger and more social dating platforms, as we proven out by POF LIVE. So recently, a record number of users on POF watched and engaged with the premiere of our show through a partnership with Discovery Plus or they participate or watch a dating game called Next Date. Or they build a community around the cause or a streamer they like. And it is another way to more serendipitously discover people and then eventually match and chat. Swipe Night on Tinder was another somewhat similar construct. If you both covered for Graham, you certainly had something to talk about. And for those who don't have the specific Swipe Night reference, Covering for Graham was not a very popular thing to do. So the other thing I'd say is, while these social experiences are fun and entertaining, they are not designed to be entertainment for the sake of passive entertainment. Rather, they are fun and entertaining ways that serves as an alibi and an avenue to ultimately drive connections and conversations, which is really the point of interest for us. And that's why we think there's so much synergy in the technology between dating and social discovery, but also, they are very distinct use cases. So hopefully, that gives a little bit more sort of broader view of how we think about it. Obviously, so much more on this to come as we close Hyperconnect, and we've sort of foray into the various areas. About safety. So look, safety's been existential to us since the beginning of our category. And as we mentioned in our letter, and I'm sure, we'll talk more about it. We made huge investments in it. One of the reasons we like Hyperconnect, as a business and technology is they're very maniacal focus on safety and the technologies they've developed. Specifically, things like device side AI, which are privacy-friendly ways of helping with moderation and safety. So it is going to be a huge area for us. But this is an area that we feel we have real expertise in.
Nick Jones:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shweta Khajuria from Evercore ISI Please go ahead.
Shweta Khajuria:
Okay, thank you. Let me try to please. Could you please provide an update on your conversations with Google and the changes that are coming up in September this year? I know you talked about it in the last earnings call. But if there's any updates that you could provide us, that'd be great. And similarly, if you have any thoughts on Apple, iOS and the current regulatory environment here in the U.S. and Europe? That's the first question. And then the second question is, if you could please provide a little bit more color on what were the key drivers that you think had the most impact in bringing Hinge from 13 most downloaded to third in couple years that'd be great? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Let me at least try the questions about Google and Apple. First of all, just generally, there's a lot going on in the global regulatory environment, the court system related to Google and Apple, as you probably know. It's a very fluid situation, it's really hard to predict exactly how this is going to play out or what comes next. But there's, I think, a few things that are that are apparent. The first is that there's concern globally among regulators about the behavior of Apple and Google as it relates to their conduct with the app ecosystem. In the U.S., there was a hearing in the Senate subcommittee last week. And politicians in the U.S. rarely agree on anything. The one thing they seem to agree on is there are significant concerns related to the app ecosystem, as it relates to both Google and Apple. And we've seen the same kind of concerns come out of Australia. We've seen the same concerns coming out of the European Union. And frankly, we expect that they're going to continue to come from various jurisdictions around the world now Now we're realistic in that we know the pace of regulatory change is slow. And we don't know how long it's going to take to see change. What we would like to see is actually Apple and Google recognizing the valid concerns around their behaviors related to the ecosystem, and making proactive changes to address developers and consumers concerns about the app ecosystem. Don't know if that's going to happen. We're in conversations with Apple and Google about this. We're happy to share our thoughts, whenever they want to listen to our thoughts on this. We think there are ways to improve the situation, but don't know how that's going to play out. In particular, as it relates to Google, they have announced the policy change effective later this year. We have been having discussions with them about the economic impact of that. And we continue to have those discussions. And we're hopeful that we're going to find a resolution that is compelling for both us and Google on that front. But given the fluidity of the situation, everything else, it's difficult to say how any of this is going to play out we are we are watching it, obviously, with a lot of interest. The other thing that is a significant development that has happened in the iOS ecosystem, really just this week, is the changes they've made to the collection of IDFA, which is integrated into the 14.5 iOS update that has just started to roll out. And so we don't know yet. Adoption of that is still very low. We don't know yet exactly what the impacts or ramifications of that are going to be. And so we're monitoring that. And I would say we've been preparing for this, for a while. We feel we're well equipped to manage through the changes. Fortunately, we're not a significantly ad, revenue generating business. Most of our revenue comes directly from the consumer is not - we're not ad supported. So we're going to be less impacted than virtually anybody else out there. But we have been preparing. We've adopted the apple, SKAdNetwork. And we also have a lot of history and experience in user acquisition without this level of attribution. We've been operating in TV and out of home for a long time. So we have a lot of tools and preparedness to handle the different environment. But admittedly, it's going to be a different environment with these changes to IDFA. Everyone's going to have to adjust, us included, we feel prepared for that. But we'll have to see how that all plays out. And I think it's going to be a little bit volatile on the user acquisition front, for us. And for others, frankly, over the coming weeks and months, until some of this plays out. I would expect that there will be adjustments in the marketplace itself, changes to pricing and user acquisition efficiency, as the market adjusts to a changing set of circumstances. But it's really difficult still to quantify, or estimate what those impacts are going to be. But we'll learn a lot more over the coming quarter. And we'll come back on our next earnings call with a better update in terms of the changes IDFA and the impact of all that. So a lot going on the Apple and Google front in a multitude of ways. And, we're on top of it all as best we can. And we'll continue to update everybody on it.
Operator:
The next question - sorry?
Sharmistha Dubey:
No, go ahead.
Operator:
Next question comes from Justin Patterson from KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Justin Patterson:
Great, thank you. Two if I can. Shar, on Hinge. I was curious what investments and steps are needed to capture that number two spot in the U.S.? And for generally in safety, how much of that 100 million spend is onetime versus recurring in nature? Thank you.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Sure. I just realized Shweta had asked the Hinge question too. So maybe I'll address it a little bit more broadly. So, we said Hinge has moved from - I forget, 13 or so spot when we acquire them to three. And they've tripled revenue last year. We're hoping they double revenue this year. All of that is driven by both user growth and improvements within subscription and à la carte. And this is just U.S. and that is only currently available in English-speaking markets, a few English-speaking and U.S. being the most important market for them. However, the thing to remember about Hinge is it has really grown in the few of the largest cities in the U.S. and mostly on the backs of word of mouth. And word of mouth is really strong for Hinge, because the product really resonates with its user base. So as I've said in my opening remarks as Hinge has generally done in the past, the second half roadmap for Hinge is again focused on helping users have greater outcomes on the app. And this, in turn will help word of mouth marketing. And as the world opens up a little bit, people go hang out and talk to each other about their dating lives and successes, et cetera. All of that should be helpful to Hinge. The one other thing I would note, for the U.S. itself, awareness of Hinge in smaller cities, and the rest of U.S. is still quite low. So we do have an opportunity to target marketing spend into strengthening and broadening awareness, more broadly across the U.S., which is something we're going to do this year as well. Gary, you're going to take that?
Gary Swidler:
Yeah. On trust and safety, the $100 million that we spent is obviously a meaningful number. Because safety is a key component of what we do. We've been talking about it a lot recently. And it's always been a key focus of ours, keeping our users safe. Virtually all of the $100 million is recurring. For us, we have some onetime for Hinge, but they're very tiny component of the $100 million. And I think the way to think of the $100 million is, there's the baseline safety things that we need to provide to our users. And so we've got product and engineering headcount, and we've got customer care agents, and all sorts of things embedded into that number. And we also have a central safety team, now that is making sure we maintain the standards across our brands that make sense to maintain. And we also contemplate new safety initiatives, groundbreaking things that we're doing on the safety front, to keep pushing ourselves and the category forward. We announced a couple of those over the last little bit one to bring out background checks to our users and another to enhance our processes and how we relate to our users. And we're going to keep doing that. There's going to be a number of flagship initiatives, we're going to roll out across the brands, as well as improvements to the safety baseline to continue to invest, and to make sure we're keeping our users safe. We think that's not only mission critical, but compelling, long-term strategic investment for us. And we're going to keep making it. So we expect that number to continue to grow as our business continues to grow.
Justin Patterson:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Alexandra Steiger from UBS. Please go ahead.
Alexandra Steiger:
Thanks for taking my questions. So it's Tinder Platinum now being available to all users? Could you maybe share some of the trends and learnings you're seeing across your user base? And then second, how should we think about the different components of Tinder ARPU growth as we move through the year, including the contribution from Platinum, the recovery in à la carte revenue, and then any potential new revenue features? Thank you so much.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Yeah, I can take that. So Platinum was always designed to be a high value tier, mostly for the super user in order to help them increase meaningfully their matches and messages. And so we've been steadily testing it to make sure this actually meets us promise. And the great news is it does. And as of April, we have rolled it out fully across all geographies. However, it is still mostly merchandise to subscribers who have experience with the product and they understand the value. And hence most of the take rate is through upgrades to this premium tier, which is obviously a higher price tier. Platinum is already a meaningful contributor to ARPU and revenue. And it is on track to cross our goal of a million subscribers this year. And so we do expect solid ARPU growth for Tinder for the rest of the year, definitely helped by Platinum and - as well as other à la carte growth et cetera. It does not contemplate any new major revenue features however.
Operator:
The next question comes from John Blackledge from Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great, thanks. At the non-Tinder brands reported revenue growth accelerated again this quarter, and you highlighted Hinge earlier in the call. Maybe could you discuss the other key drivers? And then kind of how should we think about the growth of the non-Tinder businesses, as we round through the year on and the comps get a bit more difficult? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, John. Why don't I give that a shot? So we're obviously very happy with what's going on in the non-Tinder brands. 30% growth this year, the best we've seen since IPO as Shar said, was really stellar. And I think it probably helps to unpack a little bit more what's going on inside what we aggregated the non-Tinder brands. And really, I think you've got two categories of businesses in there. You've got what we could call the emerging ones, high growth brands Hinge, BLK, CISA to name a few. And we're seeing growth in that set of businesses, that's probably approaching 100%, maybe it's 75% year-over-year or something like that. So those businesses are growing very rapidly. They're obviously newer, faster growing, and smaller businesses. And then you've got the longstanding brands, the Meetics and Matchs and OkCupid of the world that have been around for a long time. They're generally larger businesses. And those businesses are also growing solidly double digits in aggregate. That as a result of great product and marketing work that our teams have been doing, as well as new initiatives that we've brought into some of those businesses, like live streaming at PlentyOfFish, international expansion at OkCupid et cetera. All the brands in those buckets - in that bucket are performing well. And so when you combine that the emerging brands plus the longer standing brands growing strongly, you get to the 30% growth. Now, over time, I think that, you know, we'll probably expect some moderation of growth in the longstanding brands bucket. Maybe that gets into the single digits somewhere. But we're obviously aspiring for more, and we've shown the ability to generate more. So we'll see how that ends up going. And then as the emerging businesses become larger, obviously, the growth rate will slow as well. But one of the things that we need to try to do is make some more bets for the future and innovate and come up with new things that can help drive growth in that bucket as well. So behind the Hinges BLKs and Chispas of the world, we've got businesses like Ablo, like Hawaya in the in the Muslim markets, that we are optimistic will generate growth in the future, as well. And we'll continue to try to innovate in the emerging bucket. And so that's kind of the strategy. And as all that comes together, the goal is to achieve 15% to 20%, top-line growth in the non-Tinder brands, as we kind of implement all the various strategies that I just went through. And, one thing that we're thinking about is, frankly, how to adjust our disclosure to help make some of these pictures a little more clear and give people a little more insight into the various growth patterns inside the non-Tinder brands bucket? And so I mentioned in my earlier remarks that we're thinking through some changes on the disclosure front. And hopefully we'll have some more for you as the year progresses, so you can get a clearer sense quarter-to-quarter of the trends in some of these buckets inside the Tinder - the non-Tinder brands. So more of that to come. But I wanted to give you some of that color so you could have a sense of some of the dynamics and trends overall across the non-Tinder brands. Hopefully that was helpful.
John Blackledge:
Thanks, Gary.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ryan Fitzgerald from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Ryan Fitzgerald:
Maybe I want to ask a follow on Hyperconnect, maybe. When you think about that asset and the opportunity there, what would you say is most attractive? And where would you want to prioritize your time and your efforts? Is it scaling Azar and Hakuna across existing markets and extending those products and brands into additional geographies? Or is it increasing monetization at those two? Or is it leveraging Hyperconnect's technology and expertise across your existing portfolio? Thanks.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Sure. So obviously, until we close, there's not a whole lot I can share yet. But as we said back and Feb, we were excited about Hyperconnect for several reasons. A fast-growing revenue, business, revenue generating business and social discovery that we can help scale particularly investment markets and other markets that we have expertise in. Their real time video technology as well as their AI and robust privacy-friendly moderation technology, all of which is increasingly relevant and important to our dating platforms. And also a very strong talented team with over 200 engineers in Asia which we believe is a strategically important growth market for us. And so all of those rationales still hold for us. And as soon as the acquisition closes, we hope to be able to share more details of what we can do together. So hopefully next call.
Ryan Fitzgerald:
Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brent Thill from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
On your guidance assumes roughly 23% year-over-year revenue growth, which is in-line with Q1, despite a really easy comp. Can you just talk to any factors to consider there? And also on EBITDA, looks like a little bit below what the street was expecting for. Can you just give us a sense on both the top-line and the bottom line? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure, happy to do that. So look, I think that we're optimistic about Q2 that the momentum is going to continue. We've provided a range of estimated top-line growth for Q2. And that range contemplates the potential for an acceleration into Q2 compared to Q1 on a year-over-year basis. As Shar said, there's still a lot of risk out there. And there's a lot of markets that are still challenging. So the guidance, I think, reflects that. But the U.S. is clearly giving us a nice tailwind. And we're optimistic that Europe is going to continue to get better. And so we feel very good about Q2 and I think the possibility for continued acceleration growth is absolutely there for us. And so you know that there is a little bit of conservatism reflected in the outlook to be mindful of the uncertain world we're still operating in. But a path to reacceleration in Q2 is definitely on the table. As far as the EBITDA guide for Q2. Look, the reality is that we are in kind of a unique moment in time where after people have been cooped up in their houses for 14-15 months, we're starting to see a path to get back out there and socialize. And frankly, as someone who's been doing it for the last few days, it's after the vaccine, it feels pretty good, and people are going to want to do it. And so we want to spend into that opportunity where people are going to go out there, and they're going to want to date and meet people and socialize. And that is what we are expert in. And so spending a little bit more money than we might have otherwise anticipated in this unique moment in time and encouraging people to go out and meet people is something we absolutely want to do. It's good long-term for our business. And so that's why you see a $40 million increase in marketing spend in our numbers for Q2. And, you have to remember, frankly that last Q2 in 2020, we pulled back very hard on sales marketing. So it's a big jump, but it was abnormally low in Q2 last year. And it's higher this year, in part off the lower comp and in part because we are in this unique moment in time. And frankly, we might spend into Q3 as well. Last year, we had a great summer. The trends were really strong. And if we see people start to really get out there and socialize through Q3, we may spend a little more heavily into Q3 as well to take advantage of this moment in time as the economy expands. And people feel happy and start socializing. So that's something that we're absolutely thinking about longer term, as we turn the corner from Q2 to Q3 as well. And we think positioned our business to continue performing well, from a top-line perspective this year, and frankly, into next year.
Brent Thill:
Thanks, Gary.
Operator:
The last question comes from Jason Helfstein from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks, I'll ask two so they'll be quit. So just on Hinge, I think you said in the letter that in 2022 to be more of an international focused. Just maybe expand a little bit there, is that more on driving engagement? Are you actually think you can start to drive some monetization internationally? And then just to the implied guidance for the back half, if you do kind of like a two-year average taking out but the comps from last year. It does assume there's like a decel in the business even though on a two-year comp; obviously the second quarter implies stability. So just asking, if you're seeing anything behind that or that just overall being conservative with the back-end? Thanks.
Sharmistha Dubey:
You want to take the guidance?
Gary Swidler:
Sure. I mean, yes, I think there is some conservatism in the second half of the year because there's still a lot of uncertainty. Don't know how some of these international markets are going to recover. Don't know exactly how these trends are going to play out. And so we're going to watch and wait and see on that, for a little bit more time, plus we did have a very good Q3 last year. So it does set up a tougher comp. People did get back out after the two months of lockdown. And we did have a strong performance. So you have to kind of bear that in mind, as you look at how we can grow off of Q3. Q4 was a weaker number. And so, I think there's more room for growth there. But Q3 is going to be interesting to see how that all plays out. And so we are being a little cautious on Q3 and Q4 until we see a little bit more how that goes. Plus, you have to remember we did have some initiatives, like live streaming that also make the comp a little tougher. We didn't have any live streaming revenue in Q3, or Q4 a year prior. And now we will have that to compare ourselves to. So there's some of that as well in the dynamics of the comparables that you have to factor in. So there's a few moving parts to it. And I think you just have to be mindful as you look at Q3 and Q4 growth rates, and what sort of reasonable to expect based on both the dynamics we saw on the market last year, as well as the initiatives we rolled out and how we reacted to COVID, which is true both on an issue standpoint. And also, as I was saying to Brent, and the answer to his question on a spending standpoint as well.
Sharmistha Dubey:
And about Hinge and international. So, Hinge has been focused on both user experience and monetization for English-speaking markets only. And they're growing nicely in the U.S., of course, but also in UK and Australia for instance. And our plan for 2021 is largely expanding and broadening growth in these markets. As I mentioned before, the second half roadmap is focused on a number of features to further optimize user experience and outcomes, which are generally relevant across our user base. Internationalization including basics such as translation does not yet exist on Hinge. And so that is something we are targeting for 2022. And that will come with plans to expand markets in non-English speaking markets next year and beyond. So with that, I think we're going to wrap up. Thank you, everyone for joining us today. As I was driving in this morning, I heard about the CDC report that a record low number of babies were born in the U.S. in 2020. So as a nation, we have a lot of catching up to do. Thank you again, for joining us. And stay safe out there.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Shar Dubey; and our CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. They will make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we begin, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Sharmistha.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Thank you, Lance. Good morning, and thank you all for joining the call today. Since this is the first one of the year, I'm going to start out with sharing some of my thoughts and then Gary is going to add a little more color to the financials. The 2020 with some year and even though it feels like we're still dealing with some of the hangovers, all in all, I feel grateful for how we navigated the year both as an organization and as a business. It is remarkable that despite COVID and lockdown having put a real damper to dating and meeting and socializing, we were still able to meet our goal of mid to high teens growth we set out at the beginning of the year. Needless to say without COVID, it would have been an even better year. The thing I wanted to point out is the strength of our portfolio strategy, as well as our ability to pull different levers quickly, which is what allowed us to manage through different levels of volatility we saw throughout the year. And as you're probably aware, COVID has had a resurgence in the second half of Q4 and several large markets, UK being an example, where four of our largest brands have a meaningful presence, are seeing an outsized drag still. But despite all of that, every one of our key brands grew revenue again in Q4, and you know at the beginning of COVID back in March, April, I don't think I could have predicted exiting the year with the 19% revenue growth and more importantly, fueled by all of our major brands. Investors should also take comfort in the institutional strength of the company. In addition to having delivered on business goals consistently these last five years of being a public company, in a year like 2020 with all of our global employees working remotely, we were also able to seamlessly navigate leadership changes and even a full separation to become an independent company. So as I look ahead, one thing I do see the 2020 has done in particular, is a real step change in user behavior, not the least of which is how much of our lives and activity has moved online. And while I do think, as the world gets back to normal, some of this online, offline behavior will rebalance but part of this online shift is definitely here to stay, and this of course has implications to our products, both in terms of how we evolve the experiences on our apps, as well as looking at new use cases we offer to help people connect. And we think this is going to be a big area for us this year. And again, while we set similar levels of goals for ourselves at the beginning of the year, it is important to keep in mind that the pandemic is still disrupting our lives and activities and we continue to see volatility, which makes predicting this year particularly challenging, For instance, in many of our western markets, we generally see positive seasonality post-Christmas and into the New Year. I always like to say single people going home for the holidays and getting nagged by their families, what causes this post-Christmas spike this year. However, as you can imagine, it was less pronounced. That said, as in Q4, we're still expecting to see all of our major brands grow revenue again in Q1. And as we saw last summer and in countries that emerged from periods of lockdowns, I do expect that as vaccines rollout and things look better on the pandemic front, we will see more people pick up their dating activities and turn to our apps. One of the areas I wanted to talk about is an area of incremental investment and focus we're planning to make this year which we called out in our letter. It's in our trust and safety efforts. This has been an existential area for our category since the very beginning. And here's how i think about it. In the real world, we've developed laws and enforcement tools and acceptable codes of behavior and rules over hundreds of years. The digital world, by contrast, is barely a couple of decades old and its popularity really has only increased in the last decade. So it is going to take leadership from tech companies, regulators, law enforcement and the community at large to work through the acceptable rules and norms of this digital world. And so we're planning to increase investments in our own platforms, but more importantly, you will see us make increased efforts in broader initiatives like partnerships with third-party organizations, technologies, non-profits, you're going to see us have increased collaboration with a law enforcement and regulators around the world in order to be -- continue to be a leading voice on trust and safety in the digital world. All in all, I feel good about our product and our portfolio strategy that gives us multiple levels of growth. The value proposition of our products remain strong. And I am hopeful that the vaccine rollouts are months away and we will be looking at more normalcy later this year. And just as I am personally looking forward to getting on a plane and visiting with our teams Again, I know our users will be out there for dating and meeting with renewed perspective of what connections and relationships mean to that. So with that, I'm going to hand it over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Shar. Q4 saw our fastest topline growth of the year, 19% year-over-year, a one point acceleration from Q3 levels. Tinder grew direct revenue 13% and the non-Tinder businesses continue to accelerate with direct revenue up 28% year-over-year. All major non Tinder brands contributed year-over-year direct revenue growth in Q4. This was the third consecutive quarter of non-Tinder brands showing growth in aggregate. Pairs, as well as our newer brands Hinge, Chispa, BLK and PlentyOfFish live streaming, all grew rapidly in the quarter. We believe Q4 results would have been even better had COVID lockdowns not sent so many people back inside their homes and colder weather limited people's activities in many parts of the globe. The growth in Q4 was very balanced by geography with each of North America and international contributing 19% year-over-year direct revenue growth. Indirect revenue grew 35% year-over-year as many marketers look to deploy unspent budgets in Q4. Average subscribers increased 1.1 million over the prior year to 10.9 million representing 12% year-over-year growth, up 9% in North America and 14% internationally. Year-over-year Tinder's average subscribers were up over 800,000 or 14% and non-Tinder brands were up over 300,000 or 8%, recall that Q4 tends to be our weakest quarter seasonally for subscriber growth. Virtually all of the sequential subscriber growth in Q4 came from Tinder. Subscriber growth, particularly at Tinder's broad global business was impacted by COVID related effects in a number of key markets, including India, Brazil and Western Europe, particularly the UK. Total company ARPU was up 5% year-over-year to $0.62, up 7% in North America and 4% internationally. Tinder ARPU was down slightly year-over-year due to a softness in the a la carte revenue as COVID lockdowns increased, and a deliberately slower than expected rollout of Tinder Platinum, which we decided to only make available to existing Tinder subscribers in Q4. Non-Tinder brand's 16% year-over-year ARPU growth was remarkable. All major non Tinder brands increased ARPU year-over-year in Q4. Pricing optimization at Hinge and OkCupid, the launch of a la carte features at Hinge and PlentyOfFish live streaming revenue were major contributors to the ARPU improvement in the quarter. Operating income grew 17% and EBITDA grew 13% year-over-year in Q4. EBITDA margins were 38%, 1.8 points lower than in Q4 '19 primarily because of higher cost of revenue and sales and marketing spend. Sales and marketing spend was up $34 million or 34% year-over-year as we tried to take advantage of new channels in Japan and spent into the well-received Match Made In Hell campaign. Marketing spend represented 21% of total revenue in Q4, in line with Q3 levels, but up three points from the year ago period. Cost of revenue was impacted by higher IR fees, web hosting costs and fees related to live-streaming video at PlentyOfFish. For the full year, we achieved nearly $2.4 billion of total revenue, up 17% and almost $900 million of EBITDA, up 15%. Despite all the challenges posed by COVID, we delivered on the mid to high teens revenue and EBITDA targets we set a year ago. Our gross and net leverage declined to 4.3 times and 3.5 times respectively, down from 4.8 times and 4.6 times at the time of the separation from IAC. We are pleased to see net leverage already well below four times. We ended the quarter with $739 million of cash on hand. Due to timing of certain payments, our EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rate was higher in Q4 than it had been year-to-date through September. As a result, our 2020 full year free cash flow conversion was similar to 2019 levels. As we discussed in our shareholder letter, there is much uncertainty as we begin 2021. We expect COVID will continue to be a headwind for subscriber growth in the first half of 2021, but are hoping for improvement as the vaccine rollout gain steam. factoring this in, We believe we can generate $2.75 billion to $2.85 billion of total revenue in 2021, representing another year of mid to high teens top line growth. We anticipate strong contributions to growth by both the Tinder and non-Tinder brands. We expect the combination of low double-digit subscriber growth and single-digit ARPU growth to drive company direct revenue growth. our outlook also assumes indirect Revenue is essentially flat year-over-year. While we expect Tinder subscriber net additions to gradually improve as 2021 progresses, our Q4 performance is testament to the fact that our growth is no longer dependent on Tinder subscriber additions. We now -- our business with multiple growth drivers, and we expect the combination of these will drive strong growth in the foreseeable future. We expect 2021 EBITDA to exceed $1 billion with mid to high teens year-over-year growth driven by the revenue growth and additional spend in product development, trust and safety and somewhat higher legal costs. The legal cost increase includes cost to defend the lawsuit by former Tinder employees, which is scheduled to go to trial late this year. Incremental product development spend will be focused in three buckets. One, continued investment in our emerging brands such as Ablo, Hawaya and Pairs Engage, the latter two of which are targeted primarily at growth in Asia. Two, adding to our tech and video capabilities as we expand our product use cases, and three, supporting growth at Tinder, Hinge and our other key brands. Given the investments we think are appropriate, we may not expand margins this year. Underlying that is an assumption that conditions will create an environment where our anticipated spend levels, particularly in marketing, make sense. And that is far from certain in the current tumultuous climate. We intend to continue to be flexible and adjust quickly as we have throughout the past year in the face of the pandemic. In 2021, we expect to again drive meaningful growth from newer brands such as Hinge, Chispa and BLK, which have recently reached or are close to reaching profitability. As these brands continue to improve their margins, overall company margins will benefit as well. We continue to expect to gradually increase company margins in subsequent years to reach our long-term target of 40%. We expect 2021 capital expenditures of approximately $80 million as we build out new office space in New York and LA. We expect free cash flow conversion levels in 2021 to be similar to those of the prior two years. We do not expect to be a full US Federal cash taxpayer until 2023. We expect stock-based compensation for the full year 2021 to be approximately $100 million and depreciation and amortization to total approximately $45 million. For Q1, we expect total revenue of $645 million to $655 million, which would represent 18% to 20% year-over-year growth. In Q1, we expect continued 20%-plus, year-over-year revenue growth levels at the non-Tinder brands and slightly stronger year-over-year growth at Tinder than we saw in Q4. We expect EBITDA of $210 million to $215 million in Q1, which reflects margins that are consistent with our typical Q1 levels. Our ranges for Q1 and full year 2021 factor in anticipated impacts from Google's new requirement to use their in app billing system beginning in September. The outlook does not include potential impact from changes to IDFA which remains difficult to quantify at this time. Nor any relief that might be achieved on App Store fees, as a result of all the regulatory actions challenging Apple and Google's conduct, where changes that the stores themselves may decide to impose. We are delighted to be able to provide an outlook which includes mid to high teens revenue and EBITDA growth again for 2021, as we did for 2020 a year ago. We are hopeful that 2021 will gradually provide calmer waters on which we can execute our plan and deliver another solid year performance for our shareholders. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Benjamin Black of Evercore. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Good morning. Thank you. Thank you for my questions, that too -- a couple on Tinder. I'm a bit curious if you could dig a little bit more into the source of the revenue growth slowed down in the quarter and perhaps how sustainable the drag is likely to be in the first half of 2021. And then secondly on your product roadmap, it'd be great to hear the latest on the Platinum rollout more broadly to non-subscribers and how should we think about the impact that will have throughout 2021? Thank you.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Thank you, Ben. So let me maybe first give a broader picture of how the second wave of COVID resurgence is playing out and then I'll get into Tinder-specific impact. So the second half of the -- of Q4 in particular and into the new year as we saw, there has been a surge and COVID and lockdowns and reduced mobility in many markets. In fact, as I mentioned in my remarks, a normal peak season looks a little different this year. UK that we called out specifically, looks to be one of the worst impacted pub -- a combination perhaps of both COVID and Brexit there, but there are also less severely impacted markets throughout Europe. Same-store here in the US as we saw before, California and New York, more impacted than Florida, Arizona, Texas, for instance. Again, few markets in Asia and LatAm have been impacted and sort of similar to what we saw earlier in the year, the impacts are on both new users as well as propensity to pay, particularly a la carte and it of course varies by market. So with all of that said broadly, Tinder specifically, obviously, the geographic exposure was greater. And so if you think about even just markets like India and Brazil alone could create a 100,000 swing in subs at Tinder. And then there is the impact to a la carte, which is when propensity to pay goes down a little bit, that's the first one that gets impacted and it hurts Tinder more because it does have a higher portion of its revenue in a la carte compared to the other brands. So with that all said that hopefully answers the question of what we saw in Q4. We do, as I mentioned the New Year is seeing an impact from COVID but we are optimistic that as the quarter goes, Tinder is going to see accelerated growth rates here on. The - based on everything that we saw over summer and what we're seeing in markets like India in particular and more recent weeks as lockdowns ease and mobility increases, people do turn to our apps. On Platinum, we've always said, it's an ARPU play and because it is a higher priced product, given the current environment, we have chosen to not roll it out to all users. In fact it's currently available for current and previous subscribers only and we will evaluate when it makes sense to roll it out to all users. For the users set that we rolled it out to, it has gone as we expected. The good news is, it has meaningfully improved the efficacy of the product in terms of driving messages and matches, which was the intention of this package tier. So we do believe it is a good product, and we will be watching to see the right time to roll it out fully.
Benjamin Black:
Excellent. Thank you so much.
Operator:
The next question comes from John Blackledge of Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great. Thank you. This is for Shar and/or Gary. On the non-Tinder brand performance, as Gary called out we saw further acceleration in non-Tinder brands in 4Q. Can you just discuss the kind of the key drivers of growth in the quarter and then kind of thoughts on expected contribution of non-Tinder brands in 2021 and longer-term would be super helpful. Thank you.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Sure. Gary, I can take this. You know we laid this out last quarter, our non-Tinder performance is driven by three main vectors. First, the legacy brands like Match, Meetic, OkCupid, North America, etcetera, they continued to accelerate through product and marketing work. Then there are the new brands like Hinge, Chispa, BLK, which have seen tremendous user and monetization growth. Pairs has been a great contributor. It's opened to new marketing channels, which pose -- which sort of puts it in a really good position for 2021 and then there are a new revenue initiatives like Pop Life which became meaningful contributors and they basically had zero revenue at the beginning of the year. So we do believe that all of these growth drivers in non-Tinder brands are sustainable and they will continue to make strong contributions in 2021 and even beyond 2021, these brands are positioned to contribute a meaningful amount of our growth as our current drivers get further supplemented by emerging brands like Hawaya, Ablo and Upward, for instance. So all in all, we feel very good about a broad set of drivers for growth within our portfolio.
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Mario Lu of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Mario Lu:
Great. Thanks for taking the question. So you touched upon this in your prepared remarks but curious to see if there are any new developments to Point 2, regarding the potential gross margin or EBITDA impacts from not being able to sidestep, Google Play payments starting in September. And just to clarify, it is the full year guide assuming all Android payment will go through the billing system starting in September. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me take that one. First of all, just to kind of step back a little bit on what's going on with gross margins. I would say that in general, our cost of revenue, ex the I-app fees is relatively stable. That's despite a lot of initiatives we have in there for video and other things. So we're seeing relative stability ex-I-app. On the I-app side, first. naturally, we are seeing a little bit of an increase from the fact that we have a number of apps like Hinge, Chispa and BLK, that are contributing increasing revenue and are growing quickly. And those are fully paying the 30% across the board to the app store. So the mix of our brand contributions is having some impact on the overall I-app fees as a percentage of revenue. That said, when we look at Apple, which is the largest component of our App Store fees, there is not really flexibility there from Apple and so we'll have to see kind of how that plays out. There's a lot of scrutiny as I'm sure you know related to the app stores and conduct generally and so we'll see how that plays out on the app fronts. On Google, more specifically, they have announced a change in policy that would go effective in September and that would have a meaningful impact on us if that policy change goes into effect later this year. We are having productive -- we have a productive relationship with them and we're having good conversations. They understand the financial impact on us of their policy change. And so we're hopeful that we'll be out to find a solution that will avoid this added cost for us. Our ranges for the year contemplate the impact in Q4 from the Google change. So we'd be lower in the range of that played through and there was no solution higher, if there is, and so we'll see how this all plays out. In general, there is a lot of moving pieces with regulators around the world and a lot going on relate to the App Store fees. So this is going to be a very important year. We'll see how this plays out over the coming months of related to all of those discussions and considerations around the App Store fees.
Mario Lu:
Great. Thanks, Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Yes.
Operator:
The next question is from Lauren Schenk, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Lauren Schenk:
Great. Thanks so much. I guess, as we look to Hinge specifically in '21, how are you thinking about balancing further ARPU growth versus an acceleration in subscriber growth or payer penetration rates, sort of any key KPIs or milestones that you can offer about that business, exiting 2020. And then just a follow-up on your comments on IDFA, obviously a lot of unknowns, but just any sort of range of scenarios or outcomes that you're contemplating in terms of the roll out of IDFA would be great. Thanks so much.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Sure. You know about Hinge, our first goal at Hinge was to establish a strong subscription product and then we have since launch two solid a la carte products. The roads and stand-outs, which is the equivalent of super likes on Tinder and that has already surpassed the take rates relative to super likes on Tinder for instance. Roses, interestingly are not just a revenue products, they're actually a fairly effective engagement product that they're getting 2.5 times more likely to lead to a conversation off the platform. So now ALC revenue at Hinge is already becoming a meaningful component of revenue, and it's important to note, at the beginning of 2020, it was basically zero. And, so in 2021, there is a full roadmap to bake both the subscription product which are, and then focus on making the overall product engagement features. The other thing, of course, for Hinge is user growth and towards that end, in addition to the existing markets that we already planned, Hinge's testing in select few international markets. But with this broader view of -- a broader international rollout in 2022. All in all, we are very pleased at how Hinge has been executing on their plan and all the confidence in the world that 2021 will be a great year for them. On IDFA, so obviously, since we're not an ad-supported business, the impact to us is mostly on the marketing spend and the user acquisition efficiency. And, so there are a lot of puts and takes and it is a little bit unclear how this all shakes out. For instance, if the targeting becomes weaker, it will have an impact on marketing efficiency. At the same time it's unclear to what extent rates may or may not come down. In terms of how we measure and our spend -- marketing spend attribution framework goes, we do have experience and evaluating brand spend like out of home and TV etcetera. So net-net I don't think we know quite how the market will sort itself out. I do believe it will eventually sort of itself out in the short term. What sort of dislocation happens, is unclear, particularly, you know, in terms of what the impact will be to our marketing spend efficiency. So we're not really currently building it into our outlook yet. Gary, you wanted to add anything?
Gary Swidler:
No, I think that's exactly right.
Lauren Schenk:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Brent Thill of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Good morning. Gary, I'm curious if you could just walk through the second half of the year and kind of what you are embedding in your own expectations as many of us are envisioning a return to more normal. What are you embedding for the second half of the year?
Gary Swidler:
Yes, I mean, Brent, you've watched us for a long time in terms of how we think about outlooks and there is a lot of uncertainty as we come into this year. We're early in the year. And so, naturally, we're trying to be thoughtful about not assuming too much goodness as the year goes on. We're hoping things improve, but -- as we provide ranges and so forth, we're trying to be cautious and thoughtful just because there are so many questions out there. So right now, when you look at kind of the year, for the first quarter, we gave specific expectations which obviously assumes continued COVID headwinds. For the second quarter, we're still assuming some COVID-headwinds and it will be an easier comp in Q2 over last year because obviously there were severe impact from COVID in the second quarter. So that's something we're factoring into our growth thoughts for Q2. When we get to the back half of the year which obviously still pretty far out, we have assumed some reduction in the current COVID headwinds, but not a full return to normalcy for the back half of the year. And we certainly haven't assumed any major resurgence from pent-up demand for dating activity in the second half of the year. It's certainly possible that that could happen. I know people who believe that that's what's going to happen, it's just too hard to predict. And so in our normal way of providing an outlook, we haven't assumed an abnormal level of dating activity a major burst from pent-up demand in the back half of the year. So our plan is to kind of watch this all for a quarter to see how the vaccine rollouts go, see how mobility starts to improve. Clearly as mobility improves, we see dating activity improve. And, you know, how the world starts to open up and as the year progresses, if those trends start to be better than we had been expecting, we will adjust our outlook. But sitting here today, we felt that this was the right approach in terms of providing the outlook for the year, but it is something that could get adjusted later depending on what trends we see.
Brent Thill:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next question is from Kunal Madhukar of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Kunal Madhukar:
Hi, thanks for taking the question. Actually that's just a follow-up to the last one in terms of the improvement that you're seeing in India with regards to mobility. How is that kind of impacting things like engagement higher MA use, the spend -- the time that they spend on the platform, their activity levels, and more specifically with regard to how one can kind of take that learning from India, that experience from India into other markets as they kind of open up during the rest of 2021.
Gary Swidler:
I think Shar is trying to speak, but I can't hear her. So...
Sharmistha Dubey:
Sorry, Gary. Hey Kunal, sorry. I was on mute. I didn't realize. You know, while I don't want to extrapolate too much, India has been one of the hardest hit countries, we mentioned that before. And, in more recent weeks, we have seen a real downturn in cases and as people have been coming back to normal. We've actually seen a fairly significant rebound. Now, it was still -- even though it's gotten better in recent weeks, there was a material impact on sub additions in Q4 because the first half of Q4 was still fairly impacted. As much of, I don't want to extrapolate the India specific story, I do, -- we are seeing a correlation between increased mobility and increased activity on our platforms as markets ease out of lockdowns. We've seen that happened throughout summer in a number of other markets that have -- that go through lock periods of lock down and then ease up. In India, again Kunal, the other thing to note about it is, we did pull back a lot of marketing spend there when we saw the real significant impact last year. But things are looking much better there and we're going back in and we -- it will become an area for refocus for growth in 2021 for us.
Kunal Madhukar:
Thank you so much, Shar.
Operator:
The next question is from Nick Jones of Citi. Please go ahead.
Nick Jones:
Great. Thanks. I think it is partly for you Shar. In the shareholder letter, you talked about, and on the call you talked about investing and kind of emerging market to improve the stigma through improving kind of trust and safety. Could you unpack that a little bit, you know, what are these investments and what kind of kind of impact should we expect from these investments. I guess, how material can these investment be to improving the stigma and does that show up in international growth near term or is this more longer-term. Thanks.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Yes. So, in addition to everything I said earlier about the importance of trust and safety in the digital world, broadly we have of course I'm seeing the effects of this on our category as we develop this category over the last 15 years, right. And we know for a fight that it has an impact on category perception and penetration and we've done a lot of work in this area, particularly in the western markets. More recently Japan, a good example of a market where we've been very active on this front, from initiatives that we've done on our platforms with features like verifications, our enhanced community and customer care processes. We've worked with local regulators and authorities. We've done a lot of education and outreach through marketing and PR and all of this work has -- very directly in Japan actually allowed us to open up new marketing channels, for instance, out of home, several digital channels, we're hoping we can unlock television advertising soon there as well. And so it was a very sort of short-term definitive things we can point to. But overall, the perception changes are meaningful in the long term for a lot of these higher stigma markets. We're starting to do similar work in India. Which is why I do think we will continue to focus on moderation and safety features, both internally on our platforms. But one of the things we're going to amplify this year, is engaging more with -- outreach with other organizations, third party technologies, partnerships with non-profits, working with regulators and engaging law enforcement. I think it's important. I am personally committed to this and there is a lot of work in leadership we can provide in this area, more generally for additional platforms.
Nick Jones:
Great.
Operator:
Our next question is from Cory Carpenter of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Thanks, Ed. Two questions on Asia. You touched on this a bit Just now on trust and safety, but could you talk about some of your key initiatives and brands more broadly in the Asian region this year. And then secondly, you mentioned Japan as the second largest market today. So we still think about Asia being 25% of revenue longer term, I mean the region or based on your early progress, could it potentially enough being a much bigger part of the business. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Yes, I'll take the least part of that. Look, in terms of kind of Asia and percentage of revenue, a 25% does remain our kind of medium-term target. We didn't make as much progress on that in 2020 as we would have liked. Because of COVID we're probably in that 17% - 18% range. But Asia is still very strategically important to us. We think there is real opportunity there. We've got a lot of different ways of attacking it product-wise. And we think we ultimately will get there and perhaps surpass it but I think the intermediate term goal is to kind of get to the 25%. We had said that would be in 2023, I think maybe we've gotten one year delayed from COVID. We'll see how things kind of play out. When you look at it, I think Asia being such a big market, you've got to take it in pieces. And so as we did say Japan is going extremely well for us. We've got a great team there on the ground. a great one-two punch with Tinder and Pairs, and we think there is much more opportunity. We've got a Matrimony product as well, which we think makes a lot of sense in that market. And we think there is more opportunity in Japan to work with multiple brands. So that's a major focus for us. India also continues to be a big focus for us, it's a bit of a longer-term play. We've got Tinder there, which has been very successful, as well as OkCupid, I think OkCupid has gotten good traction, but with all of the COVID cases in that market in 2020, we really didn't push as hard. But we are pushing hard again at the start of 2021 with our OkCupid business in India and we remain optimistic that we have some good products to work in the India market. And then, you've got other markets like South Korea. That's a market we haven't quite cracked with the product yet. We think there is real opportunity there and we need to keep trying to find something that works. So there is a number -- it's a multi-product strategy Pairs, Tinder, OkCupid, the matrimony product, Pairs Engage, across the Asian continent. And then, we've got Hawaya which we're still working on the product and feel very good about. That could be a real player in Asia over time, especially in countries where there is a large Muslim populations like Indonesia, we think Hawaya could gain significant share there. So again a bit of a longer-term play, but something that we are actively focused on and working on. And then, we talked last year about Tinder rolling out in-app currency to focus on the Asian market, which we think is important to the Asian market in the way Asian users pay and use the products. We didn't roll that out in 2020, mostly because of COVID, but we are planning to resume that initiative for 2021 and expect to roll out in our currency at first in a couple of Asian markets and kind of go from there. So again, something that got delayed because of COVID, but we are planning to bring that back in 2021. So a lot going on in Asia remains a big focus for us. Our goals remain the same. And we're hoping to make more progress as we turn the corner here into 2021.
Cory Carpenter:
Thanks. Very helpful.
Operator:
And the last question today comes from Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. Maybe can you comment about the success of Ablo that you mentioned in the letter and you're focused on non-dating applications as you think out and how are you thinking about the monetization of these products and could we see development ad platform to support these apps? Thanks.
Sharmistha Dubey:
Sure. You know, so, as more of our lives are moving online, the opportunities for -- in real life connections are decreasing and meanwhile loneliness is on the rise around the world. And there has been some interesting lessons we've learned both from Ablo which was designed with the thesis that during these times when the shift is going on, there are benefits to having deeper connections and conversations and communities with people online. And there is a feature on Ablo called Around the World, which allows people to connect on teams like food and culture, local culture and travel, and allows them share their parts of the world with each other and we're seeing people use that contacts to connect and chat and video chat one-on-one and have sort of deeper conversations with people around the world. And sometimes these might result in relationships. The other big lesson for us was on POF Live, there is a few interesting anecdote and stories which sort of illustrate what it is that we're trying to do here. There was a very recently one of the users on POF Live, with a homeless man who started building the community and his entire -- he's trying to turn his life around with the power of the message of positivity and he has built a real community around it. He talks to people about positive thoughts and he has made 100K on POF Live, and it's turned his life around. One of the other sort of top streamers, there is an ex that, who was suffering from DPTSD who's managed to turn that around and engage and build a network and community on POF Live and he attributes it to having saved his life. So this is the type of sort of human connection that we're trying to enable which is in the context of our mission, which is helping people make meaningful connections. So this is what's informing our belief that social discovery is going to -- which is already by the way popular in other parts of the world, but we think this is going to become more and more popular broadly and hence we're looking into this space for expansion. The -- in terms of monetization, we do believe this sort of a platform lends itself well to virtual currencies and consumables, people gifting one another, etcetera, and those are sort of the initial things we're testing out on Ablo and of course POF Live has a fairly well-established monetization by way of gifting as we know. So you know, we're -- it's still early days and we are going to try a bunch of different things. We do obviously prefer direct-to-consumer revenue as opposed to ad-based models and so that's going to be of course part of the work that we're going to do -- the coming year.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you.
Sharmistha Dubey:
All right. With that, thank you all again for supporting us and being on the call today. My real hope is the vaccines come soon. We're out of this pandemic fraught and how soon. And thank you again.
Operator:
This concludes the Match Group conference call. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Match Group Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning everyone. Today’s call will be led by CEO, Shar Dubey; and CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. We’re all remote again for the third quarter in a row, so excuse any technical problems we may run into. Shar and Gary will make a few brief remarks and then we are going to open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Shar.
Shar Dubey:
Thank you, Lance. Good morning and thank you all for joining the call today. I know there's a lot on everyone's minds this week. So, I'm going to keep my remarks short. Also, because our Q3 result speaks for itself, we're very happy to see the growth levels we saw across all our businesses, including the 23% increase in non-Tinder revenue. Hopefully, it all reinforces what we've been saying for some time now. One, our products serve a fundamental need that isn't going to go away. Two, we've been talking about our growth strategy that is based on a three-prong approach of; one, growing Tinder; two, returning our legacy brands to growth; and three, making new bets that contribute to growth in a reasonably short timeframe. And hopefully Q3 results are a good illustration of the contributions of all of these three levers. We believe in a portfolio strategy because it's designed to help members across geographies, demographics, and intent because there is no one size fits all dating product. And we understand this category in business well. Hopefully we’ve demonstrated that both were growing assets we've acquired and brands we've incubated and grown. So, even though there are uncertainties around new lockdowns in Europe and elections here in the U.S., and all of this could cause temporary dislocations. We generally feel very good about how we've navigated this year. And I'll take questions later. But first, let me hand it over to Gary to give us a little more color on the financials.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks Shar. As you said, our financial performance was excellent in Q3 with year-over-year revenue growth of 18%, operating income growth of 14%, and EBITDA growth of 21%. EBITDA margins were 39%, a point better than in Q3 2019. Despite all the global macro challenges, we hit all-time highs in both revenue and EBITDA in Q3. In fact, revenue is up 15% sequentially, with both Tinder and the non-Tinder brands in aggregate contributing similarly to the significant sequential improvement in business momentum. Top line year-over-year growth was balanced with direct revenue up 20% in North America and 17% internationally. The growth in North America was a step function improvement over recent levels driven by four areas. One, continued acceleration at many of our long standing brands, Two, newer bets like Hinge, Chispa, and BLK. Three, live streaming video at PlentyofFish. And four, of course, strong growth at Tinder. Indirect revenue grew 9% year-over-year, marking a turn for that metric as well. Average subscribers for the total company reached 10.8 million, up 12% year-over-year. North American average subscribers grew 9% year-over-year, compared to 4% year-over-year in Q2, and international subscribers grew 16%. Overall ARPU increased 4% year-over-year, driven by 8% growth in North America and 1% growth internationally. Overall ARPU also improved 6% sequentially. Pairs and Hinge each contributed meaningfully to the ARPU improvement in the quarter. Tinder’s average subscribers increased a little over 900,000 year-over-year, 16% growth, leading to direct revenue up 15% year-over-year. ARPU declined 1% year-over-year, but was up 6% sequentially. Tinder’s developed markets are performing well, but there are certain geographies like India, parts of Latin America, and Southeast Asia where the virus is still meaningfully impacting Tinder users. We’re thrilled by the 23% year-over-year direct revenue growth at the non-Tinder brands in Q3. These brands added nearly 275,000 average subscriber’s year-over-year, up 7% and increased ARPU 13% year-over-year. We also saw solid live streaming revenue growth at PlentyofFish. Performance at these long standing brands is a result of strong product work and innovation that has been years in the making. In addition to the turnarounds that are long standing brands, newer brands like Chispa and BLK are contributing significant revenue growth. Hinge has been the standout this year, with 82% year to date growth in downloads and outstanding progress on monetization. Collectively, these new and emerging brands, including Pairs grew 88% in the third quarter. On the cost side, we had expected approximately $50 million of incremental marketing spend in Q3 over Q2 levels, but we ended up increasing by only 39 million sequentially. As we held steadfast in our ROI discipline, sales and marketing expense fell a point year-over-year to 20% of revenue, increasing $16 million year-over-year, or 14%. The year-over-year decrease in sales and marketing expense as a percent of revenue was offset by higher cost of revenues driven by app store fees and web operation costs. Our gross and net leverage declined to 4.5 times and 4 times respectively, down from 4.8 times and 4.6 times at the end of Q2. We're making progress on our stated goal of delivering and feel that we're well-positioned to both invest in our businesses and to pursue compelling strategic M&A opportunities. Note that our free cash flow conversion was 92% in Q3, and we ended the quarter with nearly $400 million of cash on hand. Stock based comp expense for the quarter included a large modification charge. Without it, [SBC expense] would have been at a more typical quarterly level of just over $20 million. For Q4, we expect total revenue of $640 million to $650 million, which would represent 17% to 19% year-over-year growth. If we achieve our range, we would also hit our full-year revenue growth target of mid-to-high teens that we communicated back in February. We expect year-over-year subscriber and ARPU growth in Q4 to be fairly consistent with Q3 levels and also expect similar year-over-year revenue growth levels at Tinder and the non-Tinder brands in Q4 as what we saw in Q3. We are watching carefully for impacts on the business from new waves of coronavirus and from the U.S. Election. We believe we have factored into our Q4 outlook all of these effects, but where we end up may be impacted by how the election and the virus affect our business for the remainder of Q4. Recall that we did see some softness following the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. We expect EBITDA of $235 million to $245 million in Q4, which reflects the strong revenue growth and approximately $40 million of higher year-over-year sales and marketing expense. We expect Q4 margins to be modestly below last year's levels as we invest to drive 2021 growth. Our stated Q4 EBITDA range also puts us on track to essentially reach our initial full-year 2020 EBITDA expectations. Sitting here today, despite all the uncertainty, we feel very well positioned to make the turn into 2021. Our objective remains to drive mid-to-high teens revenue growth. However, the level of 2021 growth will depend in part on the pandemic and its social and economic impacts. We're going to watch these trends for another quarter and provide specific outlooks for 2021 revenue and EBITDA on our next call in early February of next year. We maintain our 40% long-term EBITDA margin target, but reiterate that it’s a long-term goal, not a short-term one. For 2021, areas of investment include expanding our capabilities in Asia, building out crucial user trust and safety initiatives, and continuing to evolve our product line-up. We expect to expand our live streaming video efforts and to offer a broader array of experiences to our users at various brands across the portfolio. On the legal side, COVID has delayed some of our ongoing matters, which created expense savings for us in 2020, but we now expect those expenses to be incurred in 2021. We are hopeful that some of our key legal proceedings will be resolved by the end of 2021. Overall, we've had a lot to manage in 2020, but are thrilled with the resiliency of our business and our team. We have a spectacular portfolio of brands, which we are confident will enable us to continue to generate consistent strong revenue growth at high levels of profitability and cash flow for many years to come. With that, I’ll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you very much. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Kunal Madhukar from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Kunal Madhukar:
Hi, thanks for taking the question. Could you discuss user engagement and propensity to subscribe [indiscernible] in the countries where we are seeing a second wave right now with lockdowns, specifically, you know, the ones in Europe? And then, you know, what are you seeing in places like Brazil, where there has been a recent decline, a material decline in new cases? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
I can take that. Morning, Kunal. You know, I'm going to take the opportunity to talk about sort of little more overarching trends of what we are seeing now, especially since we gave you an update back in August. In general, we have seen recovery in both engagement and propensity to pay metrics across the board. But in markets which we mentioned, that were suffering back in August like India and Brazil, India has since bottomed out, but hasn't recovered to normal momentum yet. And that sort of seems true both in India and a few other Southeast Asian markets. Brazil, the propensity to pay and subscription metrics have mostly recovered, although it is still lagging a bit on new user signups there, and that seems to be a representative of a few other LATAM markets. Argentina is for instance, an example. Europe had a very strong summer across our various platforms as people were outdoors with the good weather, but the new lockdowns coming down and we're seeing some volatility there, but nothing like what we saw back in mid-March, but we are tracking it carefully as it’s recent. U.S., even though you didn't ask me the question has actually been an interesting one where there's been no pattern of correlation related to case surges. We have however, seen some volatility in the past few days, which we are attributing to distractions related to the elections, but again, nothing to the degree that we saw back in 2016. So hopefully that gives you a comprehensive view of up-to-date trends that we're seeing around the world.
Kunal Madhukar:
Thank you, Shar. Have a god day.
Lance Barton:
Next question, please.
Operator:
Sure. The next question comes from Benjamin Black from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Hey, thanks for the questions. I have two. I know you mentioned the future is hard to predict, but if the macro environment holds up as the calendar turns up, I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on the puts and takes that pertains to your ability to perhaps show revenue growth acceleration in 2021. And secondly, I'd be interested to hear your view on the longer-term gross margin outlook, particularly in the context of App Store fees after Google closed its bypass and any commentary on Apple's App Store fees would also be helpful. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure, why don't I give that a shot and Shar can certainly jump in. So, you know, I think the short answer to the first part of your question is that, you know, if there were a magic wand, and everything could go back to normal on January 1 of next year, we very likely would see an acceleration in growth rates. Because we wouldn't see things like the headwinds we're seeing in an important market for us like India, which is affecting Tinder and OkCupid. And to all that would revert itself, and we would have had a weaker year than otherwise in 2020, because we did have some COVID impact, especially in the second quarter. So, while we've performed well, in Qs 1 and 3, for the most part, you know, we'd be coming off a little bit of a weaker year. And so I would expect we'd have an acceleration in growth rate in 2021, but the reality is, you know, sort of despite your optimism, which I'd certainly like to believe as well, we don't think that that's what's going to happen. There's just no indications that things are going to completely snap back anytime soon, you know, let alone on January 1. Now, there's puts and takes for our business in that. We are getting some tailwinds from things like people not having as many options to meet people or people, you know, particularly lonely at this time of the year and wanting to, you know, take an opportunity to go out and meet people. So there are some tailwinds, but there are also some headwinds. It's harder to meet in real life, people are more nervous, they're more distracted. And so there's puts and takes on what's happening as a result of a pandemic. And, you know, it's our belief that we're going to live with some of those effects through the course of much, you know, of next year. And so as we think about what we're communicating about next year, sitting here today, as I said, we maintain our overall objective of driving mid-to-high teens growth, just like we said, last year, at this time, and that's how we feel about it, but there are scenarios where we could do better, there are scenarios where things could get worse, and it could affect us worse. And so we're going to wait and see, because the future does seem very uncertain right now. We're going to wait another three months and kind of see, and then we'll come back in 2021. And give you more specifics on the latest view and what we think we're going to be able to deliver next year. So that is kind of how we thought about providing the outlook at this point in time, just all things considered. As far as your second question goes around App Store, you know that is a very complex, very fluid, kind of multifaceted situation, globally. You know, and as I'm sure you read about extensively, there's a lot of legal and regulatory actions and developer actions and other things going on in the U.S., in Europe, in other places in India, in Australia, there's lots of things going on related to the App Store. And so, you know, we believe that's going to continue to be the case. And there's going to be twists and turns as that plays out. Now, as it relates specifically, to Google, you know, they made an adjustment to their policy recently, which has a long period of – before it goes into effect, which is slated for September of next year. And so, you know, we are trying to work this through and resolve it favorably prior to that effective date. And we're also watching the overall environment to see how things play out. And so there's a long time between now and then, and we'll see. I'm sure our lawyers would want me to give you a health warning that says, on things like this, there's a great deal of uncertainty, and there's no assurance as to how this is going to play out, which is true, but you know, this is something that we're watching and involved with very, very closely. And, you know, we'll see how things continue to play out between now and next September.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Thank you so much.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. You're welcome Ben.
Lance Barton:
Thank you. Next question, please.
Operator:
The next question comes from John Blackledge from Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great. Thank you. On the non-Tinder revenue growth, a big acceleration in 3Q, a great number and well above what we were looking for. Could you just discuss further the leading drivers of the acceleration and what was the mix of [sub in ARPU] growth for non-Tinder brands? And just from a modeling perspective, should we expect further acceleration into 4Q, and how should we think about next year's growth? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
Yeah. Gary, let me take that. So for non-Tinder, the growth was actually pretty broad based. And a larger proportion of the growth was driven by ARPU, but also overall sub growth. And there are several drivers of improvement. As Gary mentioned, Hinge was a meaningful contributor, driven by incremental revenue features that we launched during the quarter. Pairs continued its sub growth. Chispa and BLK, which started monetizing a little while ago were nice contributors. There's a new revenue stream with POF Live, which was mostly an ARPU play. And, but also our oldest brands Match and Meetic, they were also flat to slightly up. In fact, Meetic saw its highest subscriber count in four years. So, it's a mix of both ARPU and subs that drove the growth. And because it was so broad based, it gives us confidence about the sustainability of this. And I think Gary did mention, our guidance for Q4 does include the assumption that a similar level of performance as Q3, roughly.
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Lauren Cassel from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Lauren Cassel:
Great, thanks so much. I guess just following up on that. Hinge ARPU growth clearly has been a key highlight of 2020, how are you thinking about the Hinge product roadmap, as we head into 2021? Will there be continued focus on ARPU growth or is 2021 really about accelerating subscriber growth of that platform?
Shar Dubey:
Thanks, Lauren. So the good news is, on Hinge all of our monetization efforts we've done this year have worked. And people love the product. It has translated to people's willingness to pay. And the team has been very successful with experiments that drives actually both conversion and ARPU this year. So, I mentioned, they launched a couple of à la carte features. Recently, one of them is standout, which is a somewhat unique feature that lends itself well to the Hinge product, but also roses, which is akin to say, super like on Tinder. And both of these have contributed to ARPU, but we're still early and have room to move both levers which will be the focus for 2021. So the team's currently focused on both user growth and monetization across both of these levers and English speaking markets. And I think there's still a runway in these markets. And then at some point, we will turn our focus to international markets.
Lauren Cassel:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Cory Carpenter from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Sorry, JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
No problem. Thanks for the question. I wanted to ask you about your key learnings from the Tinder Platinum test that you're running, I think right now in 10 countries, and how this shapes your expectations around the upcoming global launch? And then maybe just beyond Platinum, how should we think about your key product focus areas for Tinder over the coming months, and then to 2021? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Okay. Thanks, Cory. So, Platinum, I think we mentioned in our letter, we've now expanded the testing to about 10 markets. And I think we talked about it last quarter. Our expectation for Platinum was, for it to be largely an ARPU play, which is what the initial testing is bearing out. The bigger reason we're experimenting it for longer periods of time is to make sure this peer provides the value proposition that we're promising, which is increased matches and conversation for people who take us up on this offer. And the good news is that is bearing out as well. So, you know, there's a few different variants still in test markets, but our hope is to be able to roll out globally the winning variant by the end of the quarter or the end of this year. And as regards to product focus areas, for 2021, it's still early, there are a number of things the team has been working on to try to identify opportunities through small tests and other kinds of work they're doing all of which is going to inform our roadmap. Again, it's going to be a combination of both user experience driven items, as well as revenue and monetization driven efforts.
Cory Carpenter :
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Ross Sandler from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Hey, just wanted to shift gears and ask a question about PlentyofFish. So is this the app that – the only app that has the one-to-many video product at this stage? And it seems like 5.5 million users uptake is pretty impressive. So, I guess what other apps could get this? Do you expect a similar type of uptake? And I guess, how does the product rank among just ARPU features that you've rolled out at par for any of the legacy brands? How does that rank? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
Yeah, so he has POF Live, you know, it's demonstrated a couple of things for us. One is a desire for a subset of our user base on fading platforms to engage in a one-to-many community based entertainment experience. And it has also proved to us that we can monetize this experience. And in terms of revenue products, it is a pretty meaningful, you know, contributor as you saw its impact on, particularly on ARPU in Q3. So what we're looking to do is to figure out how to apply these principles that we've learned from POF Live, and figure out how it could live on a few of our other platforms. Some of them could be very similar to the implementation we have on POF Live, but I am actually more interested in seeing how it could live in applying the principles, but in different kind of experiences on some of our other larger platforms. So, you'll see us taking these learning’s as we develop our 2021 roadmap.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Alex Giaimo from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Alex Giaimo:
Okay, thanks, guys. Gary, the 3.5 billion in long-term debt, I think that was unchanged from the second quarter, when should we expect a more aggressive approach to deleveraging and if there are any, you know, other capital allocation priorities to call out? That would be helpful as well. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. So, you know, look, we haven't paid down any debt yet, but we are making very good progress on our de-levering plan, I think we were pretty clear about what we wanted to do, which was to get net leverage down below 3 times by the end of 2021. And, you know, that remains a very achievable goal for us. We're tracking, you know, right along our plan. In fact, if you look, we are down, you know, 0.3 times on gross leverage and 0.6 times on net leverage in this quarter alone, compared to last quarter. So it’s important for us coming out of the separation to deliver and kind of move along that trajectory, we are doing that. The business is in healthy and strong shape, as you've been hearing throughout this call. And so you know, we feel good about how that's going and we're just going to continue to move along that pathway. You know, now that we're separated and given the strength of our business, you know we are looking for strategic opportunities which can further add to our product offerings further expand us geographically and we think there are some very interesting things out there in various parts of the world. And so, you know, we'll see how all that plays out. If we can find something or a number of things that make sense for us, we'd like to add them to the portfolio, as we've proven, with Pairs and with Hinge, and with other businesses. We can really add a lot of value when we make an acquisition. We can really build things out. We can really add knowledge and expertise. And we'd like to replicate what we've done in some of those scenarios with other things that are out there. So, we have some things in mind, and we're going to be taking a hard look at that. And we've got the financial flexibility to do what we think makes sense. So, we'll see how everything progresses. If we're successful, that will send us on one path, if we aren't able to make some acquisitions, that'll send us on a different path from a leverage perspective, you know, potentially, but we'll see how that all plays out. Right now, we just say, we're comfortable with where we are and how we're progressing. We've got the flexibility to do what we need to do. We're excited about some opportunities that are out there, and we'll see how things progress, but we're not feeling pressure to do something different than what we had planned or then what we are currently accomplishing on the leverage side.
Alex Giaimo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Dan Salmon from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Hey, great. Good morning, everyone. I've got a bit of a modeling question for Gary, and then maybe I'll try to back into a high level one for Shar. First, Gary, could you update us on Match’s legal, remaining legal proceedings, the DOJ, and Bumble Litigation is behind you now. Just maybe a little color on how your cost base around that is evolving? And then Shar the high level one for you, I mean, setting some of these new term issues must be nice. My follow-up isn't really about legal issues or costs, but rather a high level one, that how, you know, you see the long-term path for the company, and I mean, it's things like, you know, I don't – I’m not going to ask you to take the temperature of the current legal climate, but, you know, you've seen things like, for example, Section 230 protections for internet platforms being poked at and re-examined and social media CEO is back in Congress and things like that. Just thinking about your long-term vision for the company, do those things matter for you? Do they matter for Match?
Gary Swidler:
You want to take the bigger question first Shar, and then I'll take the specific legal expenses or you want to do it the other way?
Shar Dubey:
Yeah. Let me address the bigger question. There is no doubt that the regulatory activity around online and digital platforms is increasing and will likely continue to increase. Section 230 is going to be a topic of conversation, I'm sure. And, look, we've gotten ahead of it in certain areas already with our support for the EARN IT and the protection of kids regulation, if you will. And I think we will, we will continue to take a leadership position in some of these areas that matter to our platforms. Some of the areas, up to 30, which are related to free speech, in more public settings are less applicable for our platforms. But in general, you should expect us to be thinking about this and talking about this and working on these areas more and more, I think.
Gary Swidler:
Yeah, I think that's right. And from sort of financial perspective, we have to continue to invest in some of these areas to make sure, you know, that we're on the leading edge in terms of user safety and things like that. And we think those are critical investments to make. I mentioned them in my remarks. And we intend to continue to invest in areas like that, to make sure that we stay where we want to be in those in those areas. So that is something that we think will continue. As you're saying, the environment has continued to evolve. On our specific legal expenses, Dan, you know, you're right to point out that we resolve Bumble Litigation favorably, and that's behind us. The DOJ decided not to pursue anything, and so that has been resolved. The FTC matter related to the Match brand is stayed pending another case that's going in front of the U.S. Supreme Court this year that will get resolved by June of next year. So, nothing is going to happen on the FTC. I wouldn't expect for the foreseeable future. And then we'll see how that shakes out. But you know, we're cautiously optimistic that the Supreme Court ruling will be favorable for us. And so we've you know, we've chipped away and we’ve resolved some of the litigation, which is very good. You know, the one sort of larger matter that remains, is, you know, the Sean Rad Tinder Employee Lawsuit about the valuation, we feel very strongly that we have a good case there. And, you know, that is continuing to move through the legal process. Unfortunately, it's moved slowly, and particularly because of COVID has gotten more delayed, but our best sense right now is it'll go to trial sometime late next year. And, you know, we're excited to get through that and prove our side of the case there. So, it's kind of a necessary evil that has to happen, but it's going to happen. The problem is that, you know, trials tend to be expensive. And if that's how that situation plays out, we're going to have incremental expenses from it next year. I don't have that specifically quantified out for you right now, but we will have that when we go through in February, you know, kind of EBITDA for next year. But that's the one sort of big remaining matter that we need to deal with. And it's going to create a headwind next year, but if it sticks to its schedule, it should very well resolve by the end of next year. And so as you look to 2020, those elevated legal expenses that are, you know, for outside matters, that are being driven by things like the Sean Rad litigation will no longer be something that we're carrying in 2022. And we're very much looking forward to that.
Dan Salmon:
That's great. That's very helpful from both. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Nick Jones from Citi. Please go ahead.
Nick Jones:
Great, thanks. Good morning. If I could sneak in two, I guess, first you touched on some of the non-Tinder brands that contributed to the 88% year-over-year growth, I guess, in particular via Hawaya and Ablo, you know, maybe with Ablo what are you learning here that might open doors outside of dating? And then I guess a quick second question is, are you able to see if users are actually meeting in person or are dates, you know, kind of happening at a distance still? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Sure, I can take this. So, in that bucket that we called out, which is the 88% year-over-year growth non-Tinder brands, I can talk to some of the piece parts of this bucket, including Hawaya and Ablo, of course. So part of this bucket, Pairs has been part of the portfolio the longest and is one of the larger contributors there, hinge, which has now been with us for about two years. And it's fast becoming a bigger part of the story. Chispa and BLK which we incubated are now becoming meaningful contributors. And if you think about Hawaya and Ablo they are actually early in their journey, but are emerging opportunities. So, Hawaya is targeting the fast growing Muslim market, which, you know, we estimate is one of the fastest growing demographic out there and is a very global demographic. And the product is very much designed to focus on the, you date to marry intent. So, we've now rolled this out in 12 markets, and we're focused on getting the product and the brand messaging right first. And then we'll worry about revenue and monetization. Ablo on the other hand, is actually a very different sort of product on the other side of the spectrum where it's designed to bring people together globally. It's a fun, exciting product, it's actually had over 16 million downloads to date. And the team’s been launching some very fun experiences and features. They recently launched a short-form video content called around the world where people are participating in challenges to showcase the parts of the world that they live in, and those become the alibi to have conversations. And they're also experimenting with, you know, competitive gifting features, etcetera, but it's still early, it's still focused on very much on a user growth story. And sort of along this line of, you know, products and assets of different tenure, I suppose. One of our newer brands that I think we talked about in the letter is upward, which is similar to Chispa and BLK, but targeted to the Christian community here in the U.S. So, it's a bucket of different types of products at different stages. Your second question is about whether people are actually meeting in person. So, we've been looking at this and studying this. We have some recent data that came out of our poll surveys here in the U.S., which provides interesting insights. So, there's a metric we look at, which is the percentage of single people that have gone on a real life date. It is, overall, it's down just a little bit, but turns out there is a story by age. So, young people are going on, more young people are going on dates in real life, and they're going on more dates, which sort of makes sense given their social outlets are fewer now. Older people, and the older you get there is a little bit more hesitancy to go on in real life dates. However, the people who are meeting in real life their share of those dates of people who met online has gone up. And there's another shift that we're seeing where people have shifted to virtual dates as a real valid replacement for in real life dates. And so, one of our recent studies showed that a majority of users have been on these long video virtual dates, they say they're able to find chemistry and build relationships, even with somewhat extended online relationships. So there are some shifts, but overall it's, you know for the entire population of U.S. it's only down a couple of points in terms of percentage of single people who say they've been on in real life dates.
Nick Jones:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Jason Helfstein from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Hey, thanks. Maybe just, I’ll ask about Tinder monetization kind of shorter and longer term, just how are you thinking about it between both the ability to raise monetization on a kind of a same user basis, as well as kind of the, I guess, the negative mix from lower price geographies, and maybe talk about it a bit, how you're thinking about next year, and also kind of just longer-term? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Yeah. So because the Tinder platform is so broad, it does, you know, allow us a lot of different opportunities to experiment with, you know, both sort of consumables, as well as subscription and higher priced subscription options. And that is going to continue to be a journey. Our general view is, the people's perception of how they pay are different in different markets. I've talked about this before. In, you know, certain Southeast Asian markets for instance, where the volumes are really high, but the per user ARPU is probably going to be lower than other parts of the world. Some of these more à la carte consumable type features will make sense. In other parts of the world, more higher priced, subscription packages, for more advantages will make sense. And we will continue playing all those different levers to drive both payer penetration, as well as ARPU, and it will be different stories in different markets.
Jason Helfstein:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We will take the last question from line of Brian Fitzgerald from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Brian Fitzgerald:
Thanks, guys want to ask about Swipe Night, re-launched in the U.S. and now it's in 24 countries was a good success this quarter. Can you tell us about what you saw relative to kind of engagement patterns within the different geographies? Things you tweaked with this launch from the first launch in the U.S. that resonated particularly well? And then is the pandemic driving more reaction response to this type of, kind of program, because it's video and episodic nature that seems to be resonating right, during the pandemic? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Yeah, so this Swipe Night version was an international launch for us in 24 countries, so we had to of course translate it into 20 languages. And we did optimize some of the performance and flows based on learning’s from the last time we experimented that in the U.S. For instance, allowing for more persistent viewing of the episodes, more messaging based on choices that people had made during their interaction, etcetera. So the interesting thing about the engagement was, you know, we saw a real engagement that in, in most of the markets we launched, and we didn't know whether such a U.S. centric content would resonate globally, but it did. And so that's what gives us confidence about, you know, there's fun, entertaining, live, episodic types of things does make the platform interesting, the user engagement, interesting, the conversations interesting. It is hard to put comparisons on the pandemic versus non-pandemic, because we've only, you know, done it sort of once in the U.S. before and then this was a more global launch, but we're overall, very happy with the engagement and the buzz that this has created and the markets that we tested it in.
Brian Fitzgerald:
Thanks Shar.
Shar Dubey:
All right. I think we're going to stop there. I did want to thank you all for your support during this particularly challenging year, and as we close out this year, I’m just hoping to a much more quiet and peaceful holiday season for everyone. So, thank you all. We'll talk to you again in Feb.
Operator:
Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Company Representatives:
Shar Dubey - Chief Executive Officer Gary Swidler - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer Lance Barton - Senior Vice President of Corporate Development, Investor Relations
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Match Group, Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning everyone. We are once again going to do this call remotely, so joining me from various locations are CEO, Shar Dubey; and CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Shar.
Shar Dubey:
Thank you, Lance. Good morning and thank you all for joining the call. As with the last quarter, along with the earnings release we shared our commentary in a shareholder letter last night. Hope you’ve had a chance to read them. I will however summarize the very brief highlights and then Gary will add some color to the financials and we'll open it up for Q&A. 2020 thus far has certainly been an extraordinary year. We are running out of adjectives to describe it and even as we've been navigating the various macro events, these last few months in particular have been fairly eventful for our business. We completed the separation from IAC at the end of June. It's particularly remarkable given that it was all accomplished in the middle of the pandemic, and I'm proud of the team that made that all happen so smoothly. As our financial results indicate, our business has shown resilience [Audio Gap] as we mentioned in the letter, even though we've come down from the high engagement levels we first saw in March and April at the beginning of the lockdowns, we're still seeing higher engagement than when this all started. The declines in propensity to pay that we talked about last call, they’ve all steadily recovered across all of our brands and across subscriber conversions as well as à la carte purchases. Our first time subscribers and direct revenue grew year-over-year across almost all of our major brands. Now the organic word-of-mouth driven new user trends, those haven’t fully recovered yet, probably because the much lower level of socializing going on in the world. But paid marketing has been performing very well and we're going to take advantage of this market opportunity in Q3 by investing heavier on COA. Last quarter we talked about how the Non-Tinder businesses have grown by 2% in aggregate on a year-over-year basis for the first time since 2016. In Q2 that trend continued and in aggregate these businesses grew 9%, driven by solid product and marketing efforts. Our Tinder business continues to grow very nicely, despite being far more exposed to the COVID impacted markets internationally. And you know despite impacts in fairly large markets like India which we called out, which by the way India's been about the worst impacted than any other market we've seen since the pandemic began; also Brazil for some period of time. Despite all of that Tinder in aggregate has recovered in terms of propensity to pay trends and they're starting to experiment new features that we’re excited about for later this year. I should also address the leadership change we made at Tinder last week. Elie Seidman stepped down and we were lucky to be able to bring in a very talented and experienced executive Jim Lanzone as CEO to lead this next chapter of growth for Tinder. We also brought in a seasoned product executive from the gaming world as the CPO for Tinder and I'm feeling very optimistic about Tinder’s next chapter. As we look ahead, we've created several levers of growth in our portfolio. Tinder continues to show strength and opportunity, both in new addressable markets, as well as opportunity for new surface areas for user engagement and monetization. Our older brands that have been a drag for a while are in aggregate growing again. There are many different stories here, new sources of revenue, new markets, new marketing channels, other product wins, all of which gives us confidence that they should continue this trajectory. And our new growth brands are doing very well. Both Hinge and Pairs continue to perform well. Our newer apps like BLK and Chispa that we built and invested in are now growing nicely and contributing to the growth and we're continuing to seed and invest for the future with our Muslim app Hawaya that just launched in 12 new markets, a new Christian app we launched a few months ago, and our continued investment in Asia. As I said the last time, the value proposition of our product has gotten stronger as people have fewer traditional alternatives to meet people. And you know with the growing usage of video and other features, we have an opportunity to truly expand the use cases and experience within our apps. One of the favorite parts of the job for me are the stories we hear from users every day. So I thought I'd share a couple of non-business fun facts. People are certainly adapting their dating behaviors to the pandemic and lockdowns, and based on the stories we're hearing, some of the more popular dates these days are “walks in the park”, “picnics” and “backyard barbecue”. We’ve continued to hear more and more stories about super interesting video dates and even video and live streamed weddings which might become a trend. Despite all the uncertainties the world and the market still hold, we are feeling more confident about the rest of the year, and with that I will let Gary walk through some more financial specifics.
Gary Swidler :
Thanks Shar. Our financial performance has indeed improved markedly since our last call. We continue to navigate a challenging environment very well. Revenue in Q2 grew 12% year-over-year, 14% ex-FX. Performance was balanced with direct revenue up 13% in North America and 11% internationally. We crossed 10 million average subscribers for the total company, 11% year-over-year growth. We saw meaningful improvement in customer's propensity to pay starting in May, which drove these results. April proved to be the low point for ARPU and we've seen a steady increase since then. Q2 ARPU declined 2% year-over-year at Tinder, but was about flat excluding FX. It was especially strong in North America. ARPU is up 5% year-over-year at the non-Tinder brands led by Hinge, PlentyOfFish and OkCupid. Sequentially ARPU for Q2 at Tinder was down 2%, while for the non-Tinder brands it was up 3% in aggregate, each figure was a little higher excluding FX. Tinder’s average subscribers increased 128,000 sequentially in Q2, up 18% year-over-year, with direct revenue up 15% year-over-year. Tinder has seen subscriber conversion, à la carte revenue and ARPU improved nicely since our last earnings call. [Mail] [ph] and older payer trends which had initially shown some softness in the pandemic have also improved. Tinder’s recovery is slowed by its broad global presence and particularly by weakness in certain countries such as India, where the virus is still having major effects. However, July was another strong month for Tinder overall, the third straight month of increasing revenue since Tinder hit its low in April. We are pleased to see Tinder trends clearly continuing to head in the right direction and excited about a robust product road map for the back half of the year. We're also very encouraged by the 9% year-over-year direct revenue growth at the non-Tinder brands in Q2, largely as a result of strong product work across the portfolio that has been years in the making. The improvement in conversion, many of the legacy brands is pronounced. In addition to the turnaround at the legacy brands, newer brands like Pairs, Chispa and BLK are contributing meaningful revenue growth. Traction at Hinge is accelerating, with strong top of the funnel growth, solid progress on monetization and a robust product roadmap ahead. We're also starting to get a lift from revenue at our PlentyOfFish, one-to-many live streaming video business from both subscribers and non-subscribers who are choosing to pay for live streaming services. We're optimistic that we’ve turned the corner on non-Tinder growth and that these brands will grow in aggregate for the foreseeable future. On the cost side we pulled back on marketing spend in Q2 as the pandemic took hold, which helps Q2 EBITDA. Assuming ROIs remain attractive though, we plan to spend more heavily in Q3 to drive future growth. We expect approximately $50 million incremental marketing spend in Q3 over Q2 levels, up $30 million year-over-year. As a result of our separation from IAC, we effectively stepped into their shoes from a reporting perspective, which means we show IACs other businesses as discontinued operations. Match Group separation related costs of about $8 million in Q2 are also included in discontinued operations. We assumed IACs $1.7 billion of senior exchangeable notes in the separation. At June 30, including the exchangeable, our net leverage was 4.6x which is below the 5x as we've been expecting. We feel that we're well positioned to continue to invest in all of our businesses and to pursue compelling strategic M&A opportunities. We also remain focused on using our significant cash flow generation to rapidly deliver as we’ve communicated previously. Despite the macro uncertainty, we believe we're able to provide an outlook for Q3 and for the full year. As the business momentum continues across the brands, we expect to deliver at least $600 million of total revenue in Q3, which would be low double digit year-over-year growth. The revenue strength in Q3 evidences a solidly recovering business. We expect EBITDA of $215 million to $225 million, which reflects the strong revenue growth and higher year-over-year marketing spend. We expect margins in Q3 to be moderately below last year's levels. Predicting the pandemic's impact as we go further in the year is more challenging, but based on what we've seen of late, absent a major change in the macro environment, we believe that we can deliver at least $2.3 billion of revenue in 2020, which would be 12% year-over-year growth. Our outlook reflects general stability or even slight acceleration in top line year-over-year growth rates for the remaining two quarters of the year. We expect our current product roadmap to generate ARPU growth in the back half of the year to complement solid subscriber growth. Our target is to grow EBITDA 10% year-over-year for the full year, which could of course vary depending on the level of investment we chose to make. All this said, we recognize that there is still uncertainty around what will happen with the pandemic in the fall, which could have a meaningful impact on our full year guidance. Last, I wanted to update our outlook for a few other discrete financial items. We expect GAAP interest expense in each of Q3 and Q4 to be similar to Q2 levels of approximately $45 million. We expect cash paid for interest to be about $30 million per quarter. That will vary somewhat depending on timing of required interest payments. The primary driver of the difference between GAAP interest expense and cash paid for interest is related to the three exchangeable senior notes we assumed from IAC. These notes have lower cash coupon rates than their associated GAAP interest expense. We expect SPC [ph] expense of $100 million to $110 million in 2020. The change from our prior outlook stemming largely from the modification of certain equity awards which will be reflected in Q3. With that, I’ll ask the operator to open the lines for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] First question is from Lauren Cassel from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Lauren Cassel:
Great, thanks so much. I just want to follow up on the July commentary. Anymore color there on how July has trended versus June? Have you seen continued improvement in the business on both the subscriber conversion, ARPU sides? And then my second question is just curious how states like Florida, Texas, California or maybe the lockdowns have been reinstated have trended recently. Are you seeing any renewed softness in those markets? Any additional color there would be really helpful?
Shar Dubey :
Okay. Thanks Lauren and welcome to your first Match Group call. I’m sure glad to have our first woman analyst covering us after five years, I think. About July, yes, the recovery that we saw throughout Q2 has continued into July and we've seen improvements in both subscribers and ARPU. We actually shared a chart yesterday in our letter that showed the first time subscriber trend into July and that should illustrate the continued momentum we’re generally seeing in our propensity to pay recovery, and this is basically what's guiding us for our Q3. The question about the geo impacts of COVID and the trends have been really interesting. It's very different by market and so maybe I'll give you a little bit of color of what we've seen and what we're continuing to see. In the U.S. and Western Europe where we saw most of the impact in March and April, right when the big news was going on and the initial lockdowns were announced. Since then things have steadily improved and despite increases in case in Florida, Texas, Georgia etc., we haven't seen any impacts to any of our metrics. Now even back then, there were certain parts of the country that were more impacted. For instance New York and California were much more impacted. Florida actually never showed any decline in metrics. In fact they had super high engagement due to spring break, right when all this news was breaking. In other parts of the world however, we're seeing again varied levels of impact. Brazil for instance actually saw some of the worst impacts in May and June and it's recently starting to tick back up. India as we mentioned, it's been the most impacted of any markets that we've seen thus far and it still remains under pressure. Japan is another market we've been watching closely. In the early days it didn't seem to show any impact, but when the first round of states of emergencies were declared, we saw some degradation in metrics. Things have been improved, but there have been some new rounds of emergency declarations over the last few days and we’re watching to see if any of that has an impact. In aggregate though, despite all these puts and takes, all of our businesses have continued improvement every month since it’s bottomed out in April.
Lauren Cassel:
Wonderful! Thanks so much.
Operator:
The next question comes from Cory Carpenter from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Cory Carpenter:
Great, thanks for the question. As we think about your product pipeline in the second half of the year, could you expand a bit on your priorities at Tinder, in particular the opportunity you see with regard to monetizing power users? And then any comments on the Platinum Tier that was recently added to your website, maybe what the potential rollout could look like over the coming quarters? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Thanks Corey. I was waiting for the Platinum question, wondering when that was going to come up. As we mentioned, about the broader roadmap, we have a pretty robust roadmap that's focused on core experiences as we always do, as well as building some foundational stuff for new experiences we are planning to rollout next year. I can’t get into a lot of details on all of that yet, but to your question about power users and you know the revenue roadmap focus, it is true, our second half 2020 revenue roadmap on Tinder is focused on power users. We’ve – the team's been testing some contextual merchandizing around our existing à la carte products and we have indeed just started testing a new subscription tier Platinum. It is designed to provide additional value beyond gold by increasing users’ chances to get more matches and more conversations. It is very, very early and it's also a very minimum viable product version of the Tier that we are testing. The team has more features that they're adding and designing and all of that remains to be tested. The thing I want to point out, you know Platinum, we’re mostly expecting this to be an ARPU driver. Unlike Gold, which was by far the most successful and unique revenue feature we've ever launched, which drove meaningful ARPU increases along with almost doubling of subscriber conversion, this is not at all expected to be anywhere close to Gold. This is more about adding, giving our power users more control, a better experience and more advantages through this – through our ARPU [plank] [ph]. But again, there’s a fair bit of testing still to be done and our goal is that if all goes well we should be able to globally roll this out by the end of the year, later in Q4.
Cory Carpenter:
Great! Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from John Blackledge from Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great, thanks. Just on Hinge, where is the brand tracking now versus what you had envisioned to start the year kind of pre-COVID, and how should we think about the brand on a longer term basis? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
Thanks John. Hinge is actually tracking very well relative to our expectations. In terms of user growth, even though it was impacted during the initial lock downs, mostly because of their geographic footprint being in larger cities like New York and LA, they have since rebounded very strongly and already in the first half of 2020 their downloads are doubled year-over-year and there's lots of room to go, both in the U.S., as well as internationally, which we haven't made a huge play yet. And you know as we said before, this year was supposed to be the beginning of our focus on monetization and the team's been right on target and even slightly ahead than initially planned on rolling out revenue features. It's been encouraging to see the features that have worked well on our other platforms, also work well on Hinge. In fact one of the pleasant surprises for us was Hinge turning profitable in Q2, which was well ahead of our expectations.
Operator:
The next question comes from Dan Salmon from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon :
Good morning, everyone. My question, I have a two-parter. First maybe just, could you update us just a little bit around female engagement and video dating views? We’ve talked about that a little bit last quarter on sort of the opportunity to see those two trends sort of converge together and what opportunities you see there and especially more on Tinder and Hinge and the more useful oriented ones. And then you know on the letter you also discuss how your longest standing brands collectively grew for the first time in four years. So maybe spend a little bit more time on the expectations for them going forward, maybe in particular for monetization and merchandising strategy? That would be great, thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Sure. So on female engagement and video, as we said, yes, there were a lot of really interesting learning’s coming out of the spike in engagement we saw with women, which has allowed us to formulate a portion of our road map, particularly only on Tinder, to try to leverage the psychology of what that was. And you'll see us rolling out – the team's been testing a few different things and we will definitely be doing more on that front particularity next year. On Video we obviously have launched both, one-to-one video on most of our platforms, including Tinder. Tinder is now testing it in a number of different markets, their face-to-face products are – the thing we realized – I mean each of our products has a different room set in terms of when you get to open up video. In some cases it’s after a couple of conversations back and forth, in some cases you have to have as many as 10 back-and-forth exchanges before the video becomes available. And so people are still testing to make sure what is the right timing at which we should open up people to talk on video. You know usage has been building across all of our platforms. The thing that we found is once people use it, majority of them use it again and so it is going to be one of those things that's going to develop over the long term I think. About your second question related to the older expectations about the longstanding brands, and what do we think is going to happen, you know it's been two years in the making with lots of products work and investments across these properties to enhance the user experience and increase the product appeal. There's lots of work that's gone into changing monetization mechanisms and paywalls and even business models in certain cases. And then, you know we’ve supplemented this with marketing campaigns and with true brand differentiation and that's what gives us confidence that they’ve turned a corner and they should be set up for sustainable growth going forward. The other thing that actually is super interesting is, the past team has found a new revenue stream in PopLive, which again opens up – you know sort of gives us confidence in this idea of new surface areas and new monetization abilities that we can deploy across our platforms.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ross Sandler from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Hey guys. Hey Gary, just a follow-up to that last question about non-Tinder brands. So we've got you know a couple of quarters in a row of growth and your comment was that you expect them to grow for the foreseeable future. So how does that you know kind of turning the corner in non-Tinder impact, your long term view on margin profile for the overall Match Group. Any comments there? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure, so as we’ve said, this was the second straight quarter where those brands grew and the growth was a bit stronger in this quarter. So this is something we've been working on and trying to get to and we feel we’ve finally gotten to the point where we can say with confidence that for the foreseeable future we think those brands and aggregate are going to grow, so that's clearly a milestone for us. I think from a margin goal perspective, you know we've always talked about getting to 40% EBITDA margins as a long term goal. I think that still remains our expectation. That’s not necessarily a one-year goal, but that’s an overtime goal, and so we had always assumed that there’d be some growth from the non-Tinder brands and now we've gotten there, and I think that was always part of the plan and part of what we incorporated into the expectation of getting to the 40%-plus EBITDAR margin. So I think we're tracking pretty much as we hoped and expected, and our goals are not changed there. We think we are on the path to achieving them over time. Its important understand that its product work and improvements in conversion that is leading to the strength, a lot of the non-Tinder brands, and so that is going to drop EBITDA and ultimately help us improve margins of those brand. So it's a positive from our perspective and that's why we've been pushing towards that. I'll also note that some of the margin drag comes from things like investments we're making in new geographies and new products, new brands and Hinge has been one of those. But actually Hinge has crossed into profitability in the second quarter for the first time, which is again a momentous event for us on Hinge. Something we had been expecting, but a little bit later in the year and we crossed it. So as you see these investments made and the drag they cause on margins, the goal is obviously to create profitable businesses. We've got Hinge into that category. We're optimistic that we’ll be able to get Chispa and BLK into that category over time, and obviously other things we’re investing in like Hawaya, like the matrimony businesses in Asia. Over time the goal is to get those to be profitable and reduce the drag on margins. The other big topic around this, maybe a couple of big ones, one is legal expenses which has been a headwind for us. We are hoping to see those legal expenses reduced next year, but it's one of the impacts of COVID that those things have been delayed and so we're having less legal expense so far this year, but probably will delay somewhat into next year as some of that resumes and some of those matters take a little bit more legal expense. So we'll see how that all plays out. Some of them are kind of stuck in the system right now with COVID and others might resume at some point in time. And then just generally in margins, we are spending a little bit more money on safety and compliance. Regulatory compliance has become a bigger part of the business, so that's another factor, but we think it's critical to be spending in those areas. And then live-streaming, you know you're seeing the cost of live-streaming basically run through our cost of revenue line. That probably is a little bit of a lower margin business for us as we’ve constructed it right now, but we think it's still a very appealing business and we'll see what the best way to manage the costs of that business is over time. So those are some of the puts and takes in margin, but the headline is that our confidence remains in the ability to get to 40%-plus over time and a lot of what's happening in the business are things that we've been expecting as we had that overall longer term objective.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brent Thill from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Good morning, Shar. Good to see 15% growth at Tinder, maybe if you can just articulate the next leg for Tinder this year, and if you could also maybe just talk to India. I know you were a little disappointed. What needs to change in India for you to turn around this trajectory there? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
Yeah. Let me take the India question first. India, I think has been interesting to watch as I said you know some of our early markets that we saw, the worst impacts were Spain and Italy back in March and early April, but India has definitely been much worse impacted than even those markets. We also pulled back on marketing, but it has bottomed out lately, and it does look like things are starting to open up a bit and if what we're seeing and reading is right in the market, our teams wants to go back out with marketing and rebuild some of the lost momentum in India. So, yes India I think was about as bad as you know it got for us. And it was uniquely just the only country that was impacted that way, surprisingly. About Tinder, yeah I think you know there has been, because of its exposure to some of these geographies that continue to have an impact as I said, you know Brazil is a large market, they were seeing impacts in May and June whereas North America and Western Europe recovered better after the April bottom. India being another one, it's a little delayed for another quarter maybe because of the international markets, but we should definitely start accelerating growth again in Q4 at Tinder.
Operator:
The next question comes from Eric Sheridan from UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks for taking the question. Hope all is well with everyone on the team. You alluded to in our remarks, I wanted to come back to the management change at Tinder. Just wanted to know if we could get a little bit of the background of why that came about. And then thinking about Jim running that business now going forward, any change in strategy? Any areas where you see his focus might be different than Elie’s was in the past? Thanks so much.
Shar Dubey:
Thanks, Eric. Yeah its – you know it was – Elie joined Tinder right after we launched Gold and you know his study hand was really critical at that time as Tinder grew through its first $1 billion, and now it's ready for its next chapter, and I really think Jim with his track record and experience is absolutely the right leader for this next chapter for Tinder. He’s seasoned; he has a strong track record, you know both building businesses, as well as running large distributive businesses. He brings a unique blend of product and marketing chops and you know in the near term we don't expect any major changes, but we do have great ambitions for Tinder and its expansion into new use cases and surface areas, and I've always believed that fresh thinking combined with institutional knowledge can drive step changes, and I'm sure Jim will put his stamp on 2021 plans, but all-in-all I'm excited for where Tinder is headed.
Operator:
The next question is from Ygal Arounian from Wedbush Securities. Please go ahead.
Ygal Arounian:
Hey, good morning. So, I wanted to ask that, if this could have been a number of positives are at least rebounds for a business specific during the pandemic. There's also been some areas of focus over the past one to two years that it will take some more time to come back, I guess namely the live experiences and Tinder U. So mentioned live in the investor letter, I was wondering what the current thoughts are on those events and maybe in particular if you're building in anything into 3Q guidance or your outlook for the year from potential for colleges around the country to continue remote learning in the fall [inaudible] college campuses can have over the rest of the year. Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Yeah, that's an interesting question. On Live I think you're talking about festival mode and those kinds of features we had launched. So obviously the value of those kinds of features have come down since there's not many concerts and events going on, but keep in mind these are generally core engagement features, so their direct impact on revenue is not that much. The Live feature, we actually discussed in the shareholder letter, is more around synchronized shared experiences within the app itself. It's not dependent on in-real life events, so it's sort of a different thing. Tinder U is again, it's interesting and Tinder U was again an engagement feature rather than a direct revenue driver. When you know schools started closing, we did adjust our Tinder U product to make sure students could continue to swipe both, in their physical location if they went back home, as well as within their schools. We saw a fairly large spike in activity and engagement among the 18 to 22 year olds, you know in the early days of the pandemic and through most of summer. Generally towards the end of August we see some back-to-school seasonality, so it'll be interesting to see what happens this particular year. The team is ready to figure out and adjust quickly. It is sort of important to know that the Tinder U feature is sort of a filtering mechanism and it's valuable to students even if they are not on campus. Now, obviously it does change a few things. You can't do campus marketing and you know so we’ve got to resort to more digital avenues, etc., but it'll be interesting to see what happens this fall.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jason Helfstein from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. Can you comment a bit on some of the factors impacting international ARPU on an organic basis? So excluding FX such as à la carte versus subscription and country mix, and are you seeing any headwinds in international ARPU in the third quarter? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Thanks Jason. Why don’t I try to take that one. So first of all you said FX, but it's important to note that there was a significant FX headwind in Q2 along the lines of about $11 million. It's much less severe in Q3, probably in the order of $4 million, so that's just one aspect of it. In terms of the overall drivers of it, Shar I think mentioned, we saw weakness from COVID in terms – particularly at Tinder in terms of à la carte and also some shifts to lower priced packages, lower priced skewed at Tinder, and that really is the driver internationally, especially remembering that Tinder is a bigger piece of the pie internationally than it is domestically. So that's why you see some of those pressures there COVID related, particularly the effects of the pandemic went through Western Europe. You know now they're more pronounced in other places like India, so we'll still see some lingering effects, but I think you should expect some pretty strong sequential acceleration, international ARPU in Q3, both as the FX impact is less, but even organically I think we're going to see some meaningful improvement. Already you know April to June we talked about 6% improvement in Tinder ARPU, so you can see the momentum on the ARPU side generally.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from Benjamin Black from Evercore. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Hey, thanks for the question. You guys spoke about monetizing you know new service areas within Tinder with the potential of new use cases. Could you kind of dig, I mean just a little bit deeper into what opportunities we see there. And secondly, you mentioned $50 million in incremental marketing spend. Could you kind of talk about which brands that cash is earmarked for and how should you think about the cadence of marketing expense going forward and will we see some results in the 4Q if the macro environment remains supportive? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
Okay, Gary you should take the incremental marketing spend question. I can address the new surface area question a little bit. You know one of the things that we, that's become clear to us is people are turning to our platforms for the increased need to connect and communicate. It was very clear during the pandemic and the lockdowns, and this has given us a lot of ammunition about the types of experiences we could launch. One of the proof points is PopLive. On pause it is a video based one-to-many live experience, and the team's been trying different things there. One of the recent things they've launched is Nexgate, which is a version of a dating game, a live dating game on video, on the app, and you know in its very early days. It's already generating 60,000 video matches a week for instance, and it's fun and it builds communities and it's an experience people seem to like. And so that's just a very early foray into the types of things that we're talking about. Gary, do you want to…?
Gary Swidler:
Yeah, sure. In terms of the marketing spend, I would say that the incremental marketing spend is at virtually every one of our brands, with the momentum across the brands and the big opportunities in the market, on the marketing side we want to spend at these brands, so its Tinder and it's non-Tinder brands; it's pretty much across the board. You know the sequential number looks particularly large, because obviously we pulled back pretty heavily in Q2, so Q3 looks larger, but it is a meaningful increase year-over-year, because we are seeing big opportunities. High ROI market, TV still looks quite good, video generally looks good for us, so we're going to spend into these opportunities to drive longer term growth. We don't know how long these opportunities are going to hold for. In fact they are not as great as they were in Q2, but they are still quite strong, and so our plans call for that level of incremental spending in Q3 and something similar in Q4 right now, but we'll have to see how long this opportunity lasts and obviously we have a disciplined ROI framework and for most of our marketing spend and so you know we'll watch and see kind of what opportunities are out there. But our view right now is given our momentum across the portfolio and the opportunities in the market, we want to try to keep spending to drive growth into next year if that opportunity is still available to us.
Operator:
The next question is from Brian Fitzgerald from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Brian Fitzgerald:
Thanks guys. First of all, congratulations on the recent hires. I wanted to know if you could talk about the efficiency of your teams during shelter-in-place and whether you’re giving any thought to work from home, more flexibility, longer term, any thoughts on the possibility for cost savings from that perspective? Thanks.
A - Shar Dubey:
I can take this Gary. In terms of you know efficiency and productivity, I do think we are lucky to be in a business where we can generally do almost everything remotely, and so we haven't seen any sort of discernible impact from remote working yet. However, you know if there are lots of considerations here, we were starting to hire more people and onboard them remotely, and I think that's fine for some period of time, but eventually the in-person interactions and the building of the team relationships and camaraderie is important. There are studies have been done in the past about innovation and etcetera, and their impact for remote teams versus in-person teams, so there’s lots of considerations here. Also, not everybody is dealing with this remote working very well, which is why as some of our markets are opening up a little bit, we have started to open our offices, to give people, our employees a choice. We are now open in Tokyo, Paris, Vancouver and Seoul and slowly but surely more and more employees are coming into the office. And so we've got to watch and see how this all plays out. We're not rushing to a decision, but we are definitely providing our employees flexibility at least for as long as we think there is any risk for this pandemic.
Brian Fitzgerald:
Thanks Shar. I appreciate it.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nick Jones from Citi. Please go ahead.
Nick Jones :
Thanks for taking my question. Just, I guess at a high level, you know what is your view on consumer kind of perception of online dating, maybe kind of domestically and internationally? Do you think COVID has kind of accelerated more kind of a positive perception and a willingness to date online and kind of drive your sections interactions online. Just your thoughts on kind of what your seeing through COVID and what you kind of expect post-COVID. Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Sure. You know I’m going to caveat this by saying that awareness and perception changes – takes a while to form and shape and change, and it's only, believe it or not been three to four months of us dealing with this. But having said that, here is what we know. For people who have tried online dating, they definitely found value and are using it more. This is what’s evidenced in all of our increased engagement and reactivation. For people that have resisted the category, it's not clear yet that they are breaking if you will, the resistance in larger numbers, but the likelihood of that could increase as this drags on. But what’s also more important is it does tell us – it gives us the opportunity to be able to market and tell our stories more strongly, because our value proposition certainly has increased during that time. So that's sort of where we are where the increased value perception among people who have tried it has gone up. We see it in all kinds of metrics. Whether new users breaking through in larger numbers is going to happen, that's something we have to still keep an eye on.
Nick Jones :
Great, thank you.
Operator:
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now turn the call over to management for any closing remarks.
Shar Dubey :
Thank you all. It’s been a tremendous quarter despite everything that we’ve been seeing. I hope you all are staying safe. We are hoping to be able to talk to you again in a quarter.
Operator:
Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions]. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I hope that everyone is staying safe. We are doing this call remotely for the first time, so joining me from various locations are CEO, Shar Dubey; and CFO and Chief Operating Officer, Gary Swidler. Last night we published our first quarter results along with a shareholder letter which can be found on our Investor Relations Web site. Before we start though, I’d like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Shar.
Shar Dubey:
Thank you, Lance. Good morning and thank you all for joining the call. I hope you’re all staying well. As Lance said, we’re doing this a little bit differently, so hopefully it all goes smooth. So what I’m going to do, this morning, I’m just going to share a few quick thoughts. Gary is going to provide a little more color on financials and then we’ll open it up for Q&A. Back in Feb at the last call, we said we had a great start to the year. All of our brands had exciting plans and we were hoping for another great year under our belt, and then of course COVID happened. We actually started tracking this back in Asia in February, and as you know, we have offices in Seoul, Singapore and Tokyo. And even as we were contemplating closing some of these offices, we were closely monitoring our businesses, particularly our Pairs business and Tinder in those markets. And for most of that period, our metrics remained largely un-impacted. Until around mid-March when the stories from Italy and then Spain followed by Washington, California, New York started coming in, and within about two weeks all of our offices around the world shattered. Fortunately, we had two to three weeks’ head start and we were able to make sure all our employees had the right remote access to our systems, they had the right equipment and tools and we were able to quickly go remote with minimum disruption. And it's gone remarkably well thus far. The teams have managed to maintain their connectivity and productivity. In fact, we just did a survey and the vast majority of our employees say they can sustain this for a few more months, if needed. In terms of business impact, between the letter at the end of March and the one yesterday, we’ve tried to explain in a lot of details what we’re seeing. But in case you haven’t read the letter, some very key highlights. Engagement is up, especially among young and especially among women. We did see software in new sign ups and propensity to pay as the pandemic unfolded. Regarding new sign ups, we think there are three drivers for that. One, if you’ve been a resistor to the category, now may not seem like intuitively the right time to justify joining. Two, a number of our brands actually rely on word of mouth marketing quite a bit. And it’s hard – that becomes harder as social life has pretty much come to a standstill. And finally, we did reduce our marketing spend. We wanted to make sure channels that no longer made sense we pulled out of. We also wanted to make sure none of our creatives were dissonant. In terms of propensity to pay, we first saw the impact in new subscribers, particularly in hard hit areas and among the older demographics. In fact, some of our brands with more older demos saw double digit declines in the second half of March. But once the worst of the new cycles were kind of done, April started seeing some stabilization in all our brands, particularly in North America. Now there’s lots of puts and takes and specific trends by country and city, but in aggregate all of our brands saw some year-over-year growth in first-time subscribers in April. We are also seeing some declines in the price per payer, particularly on Tinder, both in terms of shift to lower price skews and some declines in à la carte purchases. As we mentioned in the letter, we did a bunch of product and marketing pivots to make sure we were helping our users navigate these crazy times. And in all of the changes we’ve seen in the past six plus weeks, I particularly wanted to call out two positive trends. The first, women engagement is up meaningfully. There’s been a big positive gender mix shift in both new sign ups and active users and this is a very healthy thing for a dating ecosystem and should be beneficial to us on the other side. The other is the use of video. We have long believed in the power of video, particularly to reduce the disconnect that happens between having a conversation online and then meeting in person for the first time. In fact, we first launched one-to-one live video back in 2011 when the world was mostly a desktop world. And we’ve made several attempts since, but have never really got much adoption. I do think this time, however, as users are being forced to use it, they’re seeing the benefits and are likely to continue using it even after all this is over. And finally, much is uncertain today but the one thing that has become certain, our products fulfill a very fundamental human need and it’s become that much more critical now. Social isolation is hard for human beings, especially if you think of single people then suddenly all avenues from meeting other people like school, work, church, parties and concerts are all gone. Imagine if there was also no Tinder or Hinge or Match or PlentyOfFish. There is a reason we’re seeing this increased engagement and for the all the short-term hiccups we’re going to see, this need isn’t going to go away. The other thing I wanted to mention over the past few weeks, we’ve heard some wonderful stories of how our users are dealing with these times. We’ve had our success couples getting married on video, on rooftops with their friends toasting them from other rooftops. We’ve even heard some stories about drive-thru weddings. We’ve heard stories about people who are slowing down and getting to know one another, spending time cooking and hanging out virtually. We’ve also heard about people who have fast tracked their relationship and moved in to shelter in place together and having a good enough time that they wrote to us about it. We’ve heard stories of people meeting at a distance in grocery stores and dog parks and for all these users who have been chatting and video dating, we can’t wait for them to meet on the other side of this. And with that, I’m going to hand it over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Shar. We’ve included most of the financial details in our letter and press release, so I’m only going to hit a few highlights. All things considered, we had a very respectable Q1 with 17% year-over-year revenue growth, 19% ex-FX as the virus impacted our trends in March. EBITDA increased for the quarter 11% year-over-year to $172 million. We were able to reduce our deferred costs, including some marketing and legal spend in the last few weeks of March. Tinder showed solid user trends in Q1. The business added 1.3 million subscribers on a year-over-year basis, 28% growth and grew direct revenues 31%. Our non-Tinder subscribers were roughly flat year-over-year in Q1 and these brands generated 2% direct revenue growth. Revenue in subscriber growth at Tinder and the non-Tinder brands were negatively impacted by the effects of the virus. The impact was most notable at our brands that have an older subscriber base, including OurTime, Meetic and Match which initially saw meaningful impact from the virus. Brands like OkCupid and Hinge, which have a higher concentration of users in densely populated markets with the most severe outbreaks, such as New York City and London, also saw more initial impact from the virus. Despite this, Hinge, OkCupid, Pairs, Chispa and BLK all contributed solid year-over-year subscriber growth in Q1. Hinge’s pricing optimizations led to rate and revenue improvement, but conversion declines, a trend we expect to persist this year. Our separation from IAC remains on track to close by the end of the second quarter, subject to the satisfaction of the closing conditions. We’ve set our virtual shareholder meeting for a vote on June 25. The strategic rationale for the separation that we laid out in December remains fully intact. Despite all the stock price volatility since December, the exchange ratio has barely moved, so the transaction looks pretty much the same as it did when we signed. As a result of the virus’ impact on our EBITDA, we expect to end Q2 with a little higher leverage, slightly below 5x net leverage and delever a little more slowly than we had originally expected. Given our strong free cash flow generation, we're confident this leverage level is manageable for us. We still anticipate we’ll be under 3x net leverage in 18 months. Like many companies, we have run countless scenarios on the outlook for the remainder of the year. It’s difficult to be precise about the full year right now given all the uncertainty about what might happen with the virus and the lockdowns. As you know, subscription businesses like ours tend to hold up a little better as things soften but may not bounce back as quickly as some other types of businesses, although our à la carte revenue portion can. We provided an outlook for Q2 which shows year-over-year revenue growth, but a slight percentage decline sequentially. As a subscription business, the effects of a slower March and April in terms of new users and first-time subscribers will continue to be felt through Q2. We expect Q2 EBITDA to be close to flat when compared to last year, if you add back the $7 million of separation-related costs we expect to incur in Q2 2020. We generally don't adjust for these costs when we report, so we expect our reported EBITDA next quarter to be down by around the amount of the separation costs. As a result of the crisis, many advertisers have left the market leading rates to decline and making our ad spend more effective. Therefore, we’re planning to continue spending where we see solid opportunities to drive subscriber growth even at the expense of near-term margin. In general, while we’re deferring some non-critical hiring and generally trying to be judicious with costs, we intend to keep investing in our businesses because we know people are increasingly engaging with our products and are eager to get out and date in real life again. While the short term may be choppy, longer term we’re very confident in our ability to drive solid growth for our shareholders. With that, I’ll ask the operator to open the lines for questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. The first question today comes from Nick Jones of Citi. Please go ahead.
Nicholas Jones:
Great. Thank you for taking my question. Just one, I guess it’s probably a little nuance. Can you give an update on what trends you’re seeing in the country, states, regions, cities where social distancing measures are loosening and businesses are starting to reopen?
Shar Dubey:
Sure. I can take that. As you look at the geographic effects, it’s been rather interesting and there’s obviously lots of different stories. But broadly we’ve been thinking about this as all markets fall in one of three categories. The first bucket was the really severely impacted markets. I would put markets like Italy, Spain and even New York in that category. These markets had the largest impact on our business and they all have been the slowest to recover. The second group of markets I would say are the ones that have either a low or moderate impact of the virus. And while they’ve had some restrictions, they’ve never really locked down and I would put Sweden, South Korea, a number of states in Central and Southern U.S. in that bucket. And most of these markets barely saw any impact. And then there is a large part of the remaining, which is somewhat in between where the effects haven’t been as – the virus effects haven’t been as bad as Italy and Spain and New York, but they did go into a much more restrictive lockdown. And these are the markets where we saw a real impact during the heavy new cycle, but they have all stabilized and recovered. And the types of markets in here I would include most of U.S., except states in the two coasts, Nordics, Germany, et cetera. And of course, there’s a lot of exception, for instance, Japan which we first thought was in our number two bucket of un-impacted, once they cancelled the Olympics and went into the emergency restrictions, we are now seeing a moderate impact there and so we call it in our number three bucket. Also, markets like India, Brazil and several South Asian markets are more impacted in April than they were in March, for instance. And about your question about how are we seeing when businesses are reopening. The two markets we’ve been watching closely, one is Germany that’s sort of loosened some of its restrictions for about two weeks now and then Georgia of course in the U.S. In Germany, Tinder, Meetic and even OkCupid which is smaller there, have seen some nice uptick. Georgia has also seen some nice trends, but I wouldn’t yet jump to any conclusions. It’s too early. It’s hard to tell how much and how long this might stay.
Nicholas Jones:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Dan Salmon of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Daniel Salmon:
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Shar, maybe return to those two big ideas that you features about female engagement and video, and one must imagine that those two things are similar, correlated together. And so I wanted to ask a big picture question about what I think you and management have talked about before as the challenge of always bringing the female experience up to be a little bit more in line with expectations. And how important do you think video might be to that? And what I’m saying is that we’ve seen features like females message first, we’ve seen those sort of things roll out. Does it make sense where you have a product where, for example, you need to go on a video pre-date first before you could ever meet in person? And then just broadly if you could talk about some of the more important video initiatives across the platform, I know you touched on a few things in there. But what would be some of the most important in your mind and what are some of the key sort of milestones for them that you have? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Sure. Yes, women engagement is a metric that we always strive in all of our product and marketing efforts to try to increase because it is one of the most beneficial things to the ecosystem. And we have believed in video. I have certainly believed in the power of the live video technology for a lot of years here. We’ve given it a try many different times and I said, I’ve always been disappointed with the level of adoption and usage we’ve seen over the years. But last year we actually – as we were seeing people become a little more comfortable with video generally, we wanted to make sure we were prepared to leverage video when we thought consumers were ready for it. And so there were two particular initiatives last year that we launched around video. The first was one-on-one video on our platform called Ablo. And that particular experience was actually quite rich for one-on-one video. They have icebreakers. They have great moderation capabilities, et cetera. And the moment this lockdown happened, we did take some quick learnings from Ablo and we wanted to roll it out on our other platforms. In terms of where things are, we’ve already rolled it out at Match and Pairs in April. It’s coming in the next week or two on Meetic and Hinge and Tinder should be testing it out in June. So that’s the one-on-one experience. On the other use case we’ve been experimenting with since about Q4 of last year is the one-to-many live video experience and as we went into this situation, we expedited our global rollout and we are now out fully on POF and Twoo, two of our platforms. And I’m very hopeful that this time around it’s going to stick. I have always believed that a half date on video is a great and safe way to increase the quality of your first date. And so hopefully this stays.
Daniel Salmon:
That’s great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brian Fitzgerald of Wells. Please go ahead.
Brian Fitzgerald:
Thanks. And this might be a follow up to Dan’s question, but as you mentioned video is becoming more important in your platforms both for communication but also for content consumption with things like Swipe Night. Can you tell us a bit about the cost structure there? Are you using cloud resources there? Anything you can tell us about how that’s evolving maybe to the multi-cloud or forward commitments to reduce the costs and get ahead of that cost curve as you continue to see video ramping as a feature?
Gary Swidler:
Hi, Brian. It’s Gary. Why don’t I take a crack at that? Yes, we are using third party providers all on cloud to handle video. As you may know, a lot of third party providers have emerged over the last few years and they take advantage of the benefits of scale and really drive down the costs. So it’s actually become a lot more economical than it was just a few years ago and technology has gotten a lot better. So we’re working with a couple of them already and we’re talking to some others. We’ll see how this evolves as we kind of get up the curve on video. But so far so good. If at some point it makes sense for us to do more in-house, we could certainly consider that. But right now it looks to us like using third parties is a pretty cost effective and efficient way of doing this. And as you know, I think on the one-to-many we’ve done that through some partnerships as well. So we feel good about our approach. We think it’s giving us the flexibility that we need. And we’ll see how adoption and usage really scales up and kind of go from there. So we’re negotiating different rates, different structures, trying to be as mindful of costs as we can because we’re not on one-to-one initially monetizing that directly, we want to try to be as judicious as possible on the cost front. But we do think that the benefits overall to the ecosystem of taking on that cost will be significant and essentially will pay for themselves. So we’re optimistic about that. And then as we get more sophisticated as usage ramps up, we’ll see if there’s some opportunities to monetize either directly or indirectly through increased subscriptions, whatever it may be and that we think will also help us cover the cost. So there might be some short-term impact to these costs, but we think over time we’ll find ways both to drive them down through the third party providers and find some ways to monetize and make this into a strong business for us. So that’s kind of how we see the approach on video.
Brian Fitzgerald:
All right, thanks, Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Okay.
Operator:
The next question comes from Doug Anmuth of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thanks. I just wanted to circle back on the increased engagement that you’re seeing with females and particularly under 30. Just curious if you can talk about whether these are mostly existing users or are you also adding new users in the demographic? And then just given the importance of this user group, is there anything that you’d highlight that you’re planning to do to retain these users or convert them more into paying subscribers? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
Yes, sure. We are as excited about this increased women engagement as the questions that are coming in. We’ve said – in terms of new users, generally we said we’ve seen some weakness there. But of all the demographics, the younger female users have been the least impacted; in fact, in some instances have even been up. So the increased engagement among women and young women is coming from both new and existing users. And our hypothesis at the moment as to why that’s happening, we’ve always known that the pace of dating varies by age and certainly by gender and we think that as the pressure to meet in real life reduced amidst the pandemic, women got more comfortable engaging more actively on the platform. And we expect some of this may dissipate after life goes back to normal, but we’re learning a lot of insights and the teams are hard at work to making sure we adapt the product to ensure we maintain some of this increased activity. I can’t get into a lot of details about it, but we’re definitely looking at this area very closely.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Eric Sheridan of UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks so much. I hope all is well with the team. Maybe following up on Doug’s question and broadening out beyond just one gender or age demo, what learnings have you so far to date that might change the way you think about allocating marketing dollars either by degree or dollars or channels that you might expect a higher return when you think about acquisition retention and reengagement not only in this environment but looking beyond this environment? Thanks so much.
Gary Swidler:
Why don’t I give that a shot and we can kind of go from there. I think in general it’s been a very interesting environment for marketing since the pandemic really struck, Eric. At first, we kind of pulled back. It was kind of our natural reaction as it wasn’t clear kind of where things were going. We pulled back pretty hard, maybe in retrospect a little bit too hard back in March. And we’ve been adjusting ever since and we’re having a lot of conversation about what to do with marketing kind of the rest of the way. The reality is that advertisers have pulled back very significantly in a lot of places and the returns we’re seeing on our marketing are incredibly strong right now. So we’re trying to take advantage of that. We’re putting back some marketing spend in pretty quickly here in April. The good news is, we tend to have a very flexible and fluid approach to marketing and we analyze returns very carefully. And so we can pivot and keep moving and adjusting and that’s what we’re going to keep doing and I think we’ll be doing that clearly through the year. So on the acquisition front, first of all if you look at our businesses like Meetic and Match which focus a lot on TV and on online like Facebook, the opportunities there, the returns there are very, very strong. And so those are places where we can go and increase spending and really see strong returns on that spend. In Japan, we’ve seen some additional opportunities open up with new social networks coming online and increased usage of those social networks in Japan. So we’re optimistic that we’re going to see more channels and that should help offset some of the effects of the lockdown that we’ve seen more recently kind of imposed in Japan. In general for the year, I’m not expecting our marketing spend to be up dramatically right now but we are holding back a reserve, if you want to think of it that way, in terms of marketing spend and we’ll see how this plays out. If marketers don’t come back, if travel and other really stay shut the rest of the way and we continue to see great opportunities to acquire customers, we’re going to spend into that, as I said, even at the impact of a little bit of margin through the rest of this year, because we think that will help us late this year into next year and continue to drive growth. We’ve got lots of room, especially internationally, to drive more brand awareness, more understanding of the category. We’re going to continue to spend there. And there’s other places where we can look to spend too, for example, our PlentyOfFish business showing a lot of momentum, generally a lot of momentum in live streaming. It’s a place where we haven’t spent a lot of marketing recently. But if we see some opportunities, we could go somewhere like that. The Hinge business, with a lot of momentum on the user side, is starting to really generate some revenue for us now. I think there’s real opportunity there as well in the back half of the year to continue to gain share even right here in the U.S. as things hopefully continue to open up. So we’re watching this all very carefully trying to adjust literally week by week. We have that flexibility. As we said, there’s not a lot committed so we can adjust and pivot and that’s what we’re going to continue to do through the year.
Eric Sheridan:
Great. Thanks for the color.
Gary Swidler:
Okay.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ross Sandler of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Ross, are you there? Ross? It doesn’t sound like we have Ross. If you wouldn’t mind may be just going to the next question?
Operator:
Certainly. The next question comes from Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. Two questions. One, maybe talk about we should think about or your expectation for renewal or churn kind of maybe exiting this quarter and into next quarter? And then second, coming out of COVID, has that changed your thinking for '21 or 2022 investment plans around Asia and India? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
All right. Why don’t I start and Shar if you want to jump in, feel free. So on renewal rates, it’s a good question. It’s something that we’ve always been watching very closely. As people are locked down, would renewal rates really be affected? And thus far across the brands we have really not seen any impact in renewal rates. So they’ve been a stable really pretty consistently across the portfolio which is very good. But it is an area of risk as the lockdowns persist and so we’re watching it day-to-day, week-to-week but so far pretty static and that’s what we’ve assumed through Q2 and in our minds kind of through the rest of the year, but obviously that’s one area where things could swing depending on how those go. But it looks good so far and obviously we’re kind of six weeks in, seven weeks in to the teeth of this. So that is very encouraging on the renewal rates front. In terms of the impact on our overall Asia long-term strategy, we don’t really think anything has changed. We’re still very optimistic about that market. That’s where there’s a lot of population growth, a lot of people generally. So I don’t think anything has changed. That’s always been a long-term strategy we’ve been talking about 2022, 2023 revenue contribution from Asia, so it was always kind of a five-year plan for us. And we think a lot of the dynamics are very much still in place. So we’re still focusing on building our Muslim business which we think will have a real impact in Asia in a bunch of Asian markets. We’re still building our matrimony business in Japan which we think there’s a lot of opportunity to take share in that market and potentially bring that into other countries that have matrimony markets, like India. So strategically we’re still focused on all of this. Nothing has stopped or slowed, but we’ll have to see how the virus plays out and whether that adjust things for us over time. As Shar mentioned, geographically the markets have been affected in different ways over there. So India is under pretty severe effects right now. It’s an important market for us. It’s a place where we had a lot of expectations, so we’ll see how that market fairs going through all this. It’s probably a little tougher for India to bounce back than maybe some other markets. Japan had been holding up extremely well. More recently, it’s been a little bit softer as they’ve encouraged people to stay home. And then you’ve got a mixed bag through Southeast Asia. Hong Kong and Singapore have been stronger. So it’s not one monolithic market in Asia and we’ll have to see what the effects of this virus are and whether we should adjust, but right now certainly high level strategically we don’t see a difference whether it changes timing by a quarter or two for some of our initiatives, some of our spend, some of our marketing spend or other efforts, we’ll have to wait and see. But right now we’re pretty much all systems go on the Asia front.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Jason.
Operator:
The next question comes from Kunal Madhukar of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Kunal Madhukar:
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I’m curious about the guide especially insofar as you extend April – the 9% growth in April through the rest of the months, you actually see a bit of sequentially flat revenue for 2Q. So I was wondering what the assumptions were as far as the guidance is concerned? And a quick one on the February growth which was like 23% ex-FX, that is reminiscent of the growth that you had in the second and third quarter of last year before the Apple iOS kind of impacted. So is that the kind of run rate we should be kind of thinking of on a more normalized basis? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Let me try to take those and just again Shar certainly if you’d like to jump in, please do. I think on the guide in terms of kind of the impact on revenue for the quarter given what we showed you that we did in April, I just think there’s – it’s important to understand the dynamics of this subscription business. Things that have happened in March and April around new users, which we’ve said, have been tougher around first-time subscribers which were down in March and have recovered some in April will affect – we’ll feel those effects through the quarter. So you can’t just look at kind of that one month in isolation. We’re going to feel those effects because obviously the duration of a subscriber is multiple months. And so the impact of what we’re able to see from a new users sign ups perspective and a first-time subscriber perspective affect us through the quarter. So we’ll see how the rest of the quarter plays out, but our view on the quarter is obviously very much informed by April. In general, we looked at the trends that we saw across the businesses. We looked at them in March. We looked at them in April to try to get a sense of what the virus was doing. Obviously, there was some improvement in April. We tried to then kind of go brand by brand and make some adjustments for what we expect to see in May and June as a result of the trends that we had seen in these brands once the pandemic really got going in March and April. And so that’s where there’s a little bit of uncertainty. But in aggregate, we’re sort of assumed that the April levels kind of flow through the rest of the quarter, but we did go brand-by-brand and tried to figure that out. And again, that’s where guiding is a little challenging in this kind of market because the trends have moved around week to week to a pretty significant extent and predicating them through the rest of the quarter is not easy. But given that we’re probably through the quarter and given the recurring nature of our business, we’re able to give you a pretty good sense of where we think things are going to come out. But we did say, I think absent significant changes from April, this is kind of what the quarter looks like. So that’s how we’ve kind of factored that through the guide. And then in terms of kind of our longer-term expectations, I don’t think anything has really changed. We’ve always thought of trying to drive a business that could grow in that kind of 15% to 20% range, mid high teens range if you want to think of it that way, from a top line basis. And nothing has shaken our faith in our business that we don’t think we can continue to grow like that once we start to get back to kind of “more normal times.” I don’t know exactly when that’s going to be or what normal is really going to be like. But we still believe the business should be able to do that once we get there. Again, it’s important to remember the dynamics of the subscription business. If we’re having these softer impacts through the rest of this year or 2020 is affected by what’s going on, that will linger into 2021 to some extent. So there will be a period of time that it’s going to take to kind of recover and dig back from the softness that’s created this year from the virus. That’s the nature of the subscription business, so it won’t bounce back right away but longer term we remain confident in being able to drive a business that grows at the same rates that we’ve always talked about. Nothing has shaken our confidence in that at all.
Kunal Madhukar:
Thanks, Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Thanks, Kunal.
Operator:
The next question comes from Benjamin Black of Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Thanks for the questions. Perhaps a broader one here with record unemployment claims coming through in Match and just dating products in general relying on consumer discretionary trend, I’m curious to get your thoughts on perhaps the puts and takes of how you guys are equipped or thinking about navigating a deeper recession? Thanks.
Shar Dubey:
I can take a stab at it. We’ve obviously been thinking about that. And as you look back at the last time we were dealing with a financial downturn back in 2008, 2009, generally our category and industry performed well and Match in particular grew very nicely during those years. We had good wins on product and marketing but we were obviously a much smaller business. We had a far smaller footprint geographically back then. So in this time it’s also a little bit different in terms of how global the impact seems to be and it is a combination of sort of insecurity of livelihood combined with insecurity of life. So it’s hard to tell exactly how this is going to go on. The one thing I will, however, say, from everything I know, the need for relationships and dating is not going to go away. I often say that like if you look at Maslow's hierarchy of human needs, right above food, shelter and security is love and relationship. And also relative to all the other ways of meeting people, we’re – concerts and other sort of events, et cetera, we’re still far more inexpensive and efficient a way to meet. So that’s sort of the balance that we think is how it’s going to impact our business.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brent Thill of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Good morning, Shar. Longer term, does this dynamic potentially accelerate the shift to online dating I imagine with the many first-time users coming in and they convert, those become a much bigger tailwind coming out of this.
Shar Dubey:
Yes. One of the things that we’ve all done as we’ve sort of paused here in life, we’ve all reevaluated our priorities and the need for relationship and human connection we’ve realized has become so much more important. And as I said, a lot of the other sources of how people generally meet in schools, concerts, parties, events, those are becoming more challenging. And so our products have to be more attractive to the category of resistors over time. We should be able to tell a more compelling story about the value of our services to those who have resisted it thus far, particularly in markets where penetration is still low. And we provide a much more safer and efficient alternative that doesn’t even require to step out of your home should this continue for longer. So I do think there will be some implications to penetration of the category.
Brent Thill:
Just a quick follow-up for Gary on Hinge monetization. Can you just talk through where you’re at or kind of when you expect that to happen?
Gary Swidler:
Yes, we’ve really gotten that underway now this year and we’re making good progress. We feel good about how that’s going. As I mentioned, we started to optimize a little bit on pricing which is coming at the expense of some conversion but really helping us from a revenue standpoint. So we feel that that plan continues to generally be on track. That business generally continues to be on track with what we had expected and we’ve got more to come on the product side as the year unfolds, both subscription and à la carte driven. So Hinge continues to execute well and we remain very optimistic with the trends there.
Brent Thill:
Thank you.
Operator:
And the last question today comes from Ross Sandler of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Hi, Gary, can you hear me now?
Gary Swidler:
Yes. I was a little worried about you before. Are you okay?
Ross Sandler:
Yes, as good as I can be, I guess.
Gary Swidler:
Yes, I understand.
Ross Sandler:
So my question is, you guys mentioned in the letter the product pipeline remains on track with Tinder for 2020. So I guess given all the changes in behavior that you’re seeing, how does that impact the revenue product prioritization for this year? And how does it change your thinking on subs versus ARPU? You talked about pay as you go and a few other things that you were thinking about doing before COVID happened. So how has your thinking evolved on revenue products for Tinder?
Shar Dubey:
Gary, I can take a stab at it. Ross, in times of sort of what has changed, you’ve seen us react already. We are definitely trying to capture and capitalize on the two key trends that I had mentioned, women’s engagement and using video, and so that obviously has been a change to most of our brands’ roadmap. But beyond that, our plan to continue building and testing features as we have planned before remains the same. I do think while there may be some pressure during these lockdown periods, particularly for certain types of monetization, once we’re on the other side of this it should bounce back. And we will build them out. We’re committed to building them out. We’re going to test them out. We may delay full rollout particularly if we don’t think market conditions are entirely favorable. But as of now, it hasn’t actually changed much of our plans on thinking around product roadmap.
Gary Swidler:
Okay, great. I think we’re going to leave it there. Thanks everyone for joining us and stay safe. Hopefully, we’ll not have to do a call from multiple locations next quarter and we’ll be back to fully normal ways of doing things. So thanks again for joining and we’ll see you all next quarter.
Shar Dubey:
Thank you.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Match Group Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are our CEO, Mandy Ginsberg; President and Incoming CEO, Shar Dubey; and CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. Mandy and Gary will review the investor presentation that is available on our Investor Relations website and then open it up for questions. Before we start, I’d like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Over to you, Mandy.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Thanks, Lance. This is a bittersweet moment for me as I’ll be stepping down as CEO at the end of the month after 14 years here at the company. I want to thank everyone listening today, especially investors who’ve been great supporters of this business over the last few years. It’s been an emotional decision for me, because I love this company and I passionately believe in our mission to help people find meaningful relationship. But after a challenging few months for me personally, it was the right decision, and it is never easy to leave a place you love, the timing seem right as we expect to start a new chapter as an independent company. More importantly, there is an incredible leader who is taking the reins from me. I’m extremely excited that Shar Dubey will be taking over as CEO of Match Group on March 1. She’s been an incredible partner of mine for 14 years, most recently acting as Match Group President. She knows these businesses inside and out. As COO of Tinder, she ran product and revenue among other areas there and has been instrumental in that business’ success. Shar was trained as an engineer at IIT in India. Not only is she a brilliant, analytical and action-oriented executive, but she is just an amazing people leader. Her instincts on growth levers are unparalleled. She unquestionably has the vision and experience to take this business forward. I’m confident we won’t miss a beat during this transition. Gary and I are going to walk you through the slides. We have Shar to be on for any Q&A you might have. Let’s jump into the slides, starting on Page 4, to talk about how fantastic our results were in 2019, and while we’re confident, we’re well positioned for the future. 2019 was another milestone year for Match Group, as total revenue exceeded $2 billion for the first time. Tinder is once again the primary growth driver, as direct revenue exceeded $1.1 billion, just 5 years after the first monetization feature is launched. As we enter 2020, the investments we’ve been making in growth areas outside of Tinder are starting to bear fruit. We’ve seen increased momentum at Hinge and OkCupid, and strength in international markets across Europe and Japan. As a company, we’re able to leverage best practices across the portfolio to aggressively pursue areas of untapped opportunity. And we think that these opportunities can be drivers for growth for the business over the next 5 years and beyond. We believe the business is in a great position as Shar takes over and as we approach the expected separation from IAC. Let’s turn to Slide 5. There are 3 critical focus areas for Tinder this year. First and foremost is trust and safety. The second area is around innovation to drive more engagement and successful matching and then the last area is user growth and monetization. We recently announced a slate of new features using cutting-edge technology dedicated to safety including a strategic investment and partnership with a personal safety app called Noonlight. Noonlight’s proprietary technology allows our users to access real-time security assistance. This is something that no other dating app currently offers. The Noonlight integration allows our U.S. members to share details about upcoming dates via their timeline feature. Daters can include who they’re meeting, where and when they’re meeting their date. They also have the ability to easily and discretely trigger emergency services if they’re feeling uneasy or in need of assistance. It’s a first of its kind added safety measure to help Tinder members protect themselves when they’ve taken their interactions off the app and into real life. These features won’t be limited to Tinder, as we’ll be rolling out Noonlight across our brands. I’m personally very excited about this feature and I know Shar shares my commitment around user safety. The second thing we introduced is photo verification, which is also debuting on Tinder. Members will be able to self-authenticate through a series of real-time posed selfies. These selfies are then compared to existing profile photos using human-assisted AI technology. Profiles with verified photos will display a blue checkmark. The feature is currently testing in select markets and will become more widely available this year. Tinder will also equip daters with a comprehensive safety center to keep users informed about all Tinder’s safety initiative. We’re undertaking these efforts because the safety of our users is paramount to us and the more tools, we can offer users to protect themselves, we think the better. The first half of this year has a meaningful portion of Tinder’s roadmap dedicated to this important safety work. We also believe these improvements across our portfolio will go a long way to maintain the trust of our users especially for our female users. The second area of focus for Tinder is product innovation. Our goal is to make the overall experience more engaging by giving our users more things to do on Tinder, and therefore, more reasons to come back again and again. Swipe Night is a great example of this. We created an immersive content experience that gave users a reason to spend time on Tinder beyond the core matching experience. It led to users connecting based on the sheer context of their Swipe Night experience. We are rolling Swipe Night out to 10 markets in Europe and Asia later this quarter. We also want to make the utility of Tinder better and more efficient. We’ll be introducing features to give members more control over their experience. Tinder U is an example of this type of feature, where we enable users to limit their matches only to other college students. It was well received, particularly with female users. We believe there is opportunity to introduce both free and paid features to enhance the experience. We are also introducing features that give users more ways to express themselves and to show their interests, which we think is especially important to the Gen-Z audience. Common interest and self-expression are particularly important in markets where the dating culture is not as explicit as it is here in the U.S., for example, and providing more alibis to connect and meet is really important. We are not expecting the dating culture to adapt to western norms in these countries. Rather we are adapting the Tinder product to fit the dating and social norms in these markets. Last but certainly not least is growth, both in terms of users and revenue. User growth is driven by both exciting and effective product features as well as our global marketing efforts. We’re pleased that our Q4 user growth remains strong with double-digit growth across our regions. Some user growth also occurred naturally due to Tinder’s place in the cultural landscape. It happened last year in Brazil with the chart-topping song Jenifer and we saw it happen once again at the start of this year with the Dolly Parton challenge, which was awesome. Tinder has a long list of features planned for 2020 to drive monetization. But it’s worth calling out 2 areas we think that there is a lot of opportunity and where the team is really focused on. First, the team has some great ideas in the works for ALC, a la carte, or consumable features which will give users, especially power-users, additional advantages and benefits on Tinder. These premium features will be offered with appropriate premium pricing. Second, as we have been studying a number of our developing markets, particularly in Asia, it’s clear that reoccurring subscription models are not the way consumers predominantly transact. Pay-as-you-go and in-app currency models are more popular ways for consumers to pay. Therefore, the Tinder team is hard at work on new monetization approaches to better serve these markets with models that are more typical in these geographies. And just to give you a little more context, the way Tinder’s plan, product cadence is set for this year, the first-half is going to be focused on enhancing the core experience including the trust and safety efforts I talked about, and putting in place infrastructure to enable the APAC monetization features. Later this year, we will see the rollout of new à la carte features targeted at power users and other monetization features. Okay, let’s turn the page to Page 6, the Hinge. In 2019, the Hinge team was focused on refining the product and user experience, while driving further growth with 2 exciting and creative brand campaigns. These products and marketing efforts allowed us to grow downloads over 100% year-over-year. I’m extremely pleased with the progress made at Hinge as it has quickly become a leading app in the extremely competitive North American and UK markets. We have also increased revenue by approximately 400%. We are just starting to focus our efforts on monetization. We see meaningful opportunity to increase both conversion and ARPU at Hinge. And if the progress we’ve made on Tinder since 2015 is any indication of the potential, we have a lot of opportunity left. As you can see at the bottom right part of the slide, Hinge’s conversion rate and ARPU are currently much lower than that of Tinder. Looking at Tinder’s relative conversion ARPU levels, we believe we can improve Hinge monetization for registered user by 3x from where it is today. That coupled with its rapid user growth, we believe, sets Hinge up for meaningful revenue upside over the next few years. OkCupid has made huge strides not only in international growth markets such as India, but also North America. The business has achieved 8 consecutive quarters of around 10% year-over-year growth. This has been driven by a combination of refocusing the product on its core features and running provocative marketing campaigns, and these campaigns once again have people buzzing about OkCupid. Internationally, the growth plan we have been executing in India is working well and serves as a template for additional geographic expansion. We are already starting to see similar signs of success in Turkey and Israel and have plans to invest in growing the brand in the number of other countries as the year progresses. Our approach has been to test, learn and scale, and we think it’s been a prudent way to scale up in international markets. Flipping the slide, I want to highlight a few areas of strength in international market. Slide 8 highlights some recent strength we’ve seen in Europe in addition to the continued strong growth we’ve had in Japan. We’ve been working hard for the past couple of years to improve growth at Meetic. We’ve made numerous product improvements and enhanced our marketing campaign to emphasize real relationship. These efforts have helped new subscribers in Meetic hit a 6 year high last month largely driven by improvements in conversion. The OurTime business in Europe has been growing double-digit and we see no signs of that slowing down, given the demand we see in over 50 demos throughout that region. Japan also continues to be a bring spot for us with both Pairs and Tinder gaining market share and outpacing category growth. There is plenty of opportunity to further scale brand marketing as well. Right now, there are restrictions prohibit our category for marketing on TV. If that channel opens up, it would be an additional huge win for us for that business. It could both help increase brand awareness and continue to erode the stigma that still exists there. As you can see there are lot of exciting growth initiatives that we’re investing in across the company. We believe these initiatives will be additional drivers of growth from Match Group. It’s been an amazing run for me over the last 14 years, and I’ll miss being a part of the next chapter. But I know Shar and the rest of the management team is ready and has levers to drive our growth well into the future. With that, I’ll hand the call over to Gary to discuss our financial performance.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Mandy. Before I jump into my remarks, I just want to thank you for all the years of dedicated service to this company and to the dating category. You have influenced so many peoples’ lives both our customers and our employees. You’ve been an inspirational leader, and all of us at the company have loved working with you. You’ll be missed, but I know we are in terrific hands with Shar as our CEO. We all wish you much health and happiness. Now let’s turn to the company’s performance. As Mandy said, we had a phenomenal 2019 and believe the business is in excellent shape heading into 2020. We have a clear strategy for continued global growth and we are executing well on our plans. Let’s first review Q4 and then I will discuss our outlook for 2020 in more depth. On Slide 10, you can see the total average subscribers grew 19% in Q4, the same strong level as in Q3 2019. Tinder added 1.54 million subscribers on a year-over-year basis, 36% growth. Tinder’s Q4 subscriber additions were impacted by changes to the cancellation flow contained in Apple’s iOS 13 upgrade, and particularly by Apple’s force adoption of iOS 13 for all users globally in December, which led to a higher level of cancellations and we had been expecting had the upgrade path been more voluntary on the part of users. Non-Tinder subscribers grew about 1% in Q4 year-over-year. This was the first quarter of year-over-year growth in non-Tinder subscribers since Q4 2016. On last quarter’s call, we said that we expected non-Tinder year-over-year subscriber growth in Q4 and that came to pass. The growth has been driven by an array of brands including Hinge, Pairs, OkCupid, Chispa and BLK. In Q4, overall company ARPU was up $0.01 year-over-year to $0.59. Tinder’s ARPU increased 4% year-over-year in the quarter. North American ARPU was up 4% year-over-year. International ARPU was down 1%, but up 1% on an FX neutral basis. On an FX neutral basis, total company ARPU was up 2% year-over-year. Flipping to Slide 11, you can see that the company’s Q4 total revenue was $547 million for year-over-year growth of 20%. Total revenue growth would have been 21% or $5 million better without the impact of FX. Tinder direct revenue grew 39% in the quarter. Indirect revenue stabilized in Q4 as we’ve been expecting. Operating income grew 19% and EBITDA grew 22% in the quarter. EBITDA margin improved by a point over the prior year quarter. Selling and marketing spend declined as a percentage of revenue again this quarter by nearly 5 points to 18%, our lowest level as a public company. In Q4, we spent down at a number of the legacy brand and only increased spending modestly at the growing brands. We also delayed to 2020, some spend we have planned in India and Australia due to widespread protest and wildfires in those countries, respectively. The overall reduction in marketing spend was mostly offset by IAP fee growth and higher legal expenses and product development costs. At the end of every year, we like to step back and review our financial trends over the past several years to avoid focusing solely on the quarter-by-quarter trends. Tinder’s growth has been exceptional going from negligible revenue in 2015 to over $1.15 billion in direct revenue in 2019, a CAGR of 123%. You just don’t see that very often especially at the margin level that Tinder has. As you can see on Slide 12, Tinder has clearly propelled Match Group over the past 5 years to total revenue growth of 20% annually. But I want to reemphasize something that Mandy said, which is that we’ve been successfully [turning] [ph] around several of our brands, and we’ve made a series of important new bets. These strategic moves have positioned us to drive real and accelerating growth in non-Tinder brands starting in 2020. We’re also executing on our strategy of growth international direct revenue, which now comprises roughly half of the company’s direct revenue up from 1/3rd in 2015. Our Asia-Pacific revenue is trending towards our goal of 25% of total company revenue. It was up to 17% of the total in Q4 2019. In particular, markets like Japan, where we have the 2 leading brands in Pairs and Tinder are becoming major revenue markets for us with rapid growth. Growth at brands like Tinder, which rely less on paid marketing coupled with spending discipline at several of the other brands, have enabled us to expand margins significantly over the past 5 years, with EBITDA margins going from 33% in 2015 to 38% in 2019. We believe there is room to expand our margins above 40% in the long run, especially as legal expenses, which increased $38 million year-over-year in 2019 decline, and our non-Tinder brands contribute more. Slide 13 shows that in 2019, we made about $37 million of investments into Hinge and our other emerging brands. This level of discretionary investment in new bets, about 2% of revenue is a very manageable level for the company. Of course, this excludes all the investing in people product and marketing that we’re doing globally to expand our other profitable brands like Tinder. As you can see from the chart, Hinge is making fantastic progress and we expect it to be close to breakeven in 2020. Hinge still has a lot of work to do, but we’re confident it’s on track to profitability. In 2020, we are planning to invest in a variety of our other businesses that we believe are showing traction. These include Ablo, a person-to-person text and video chat app that our team incubated in 2018 and launched in 2019. We’re thrilled that Google named Ablo the 2019 app of the year. Ablo is showing strong user growth and we’re investing into that momentum. Our Chispa and BLK apps have done a great job building their user bases in the Hispanic and African-American communities in the U.S., and they already have monetization underway. We have confidence that they will be solid profitable contributors to our portfolio in a not-too-distant future. Overall, a significant portion of the investments we plan to make this year is design to achieve our goal of deriving a quarter of revenue from Asia-Pacific by 2023. These include Pairs engaged target at the matrimony market in Japan and OkCupid in several Asian markets. We’ve talked about the opportunity we see in the untapped and rapidly growing Muslim demographic globally. And we’re planning to invest in a small app in Egypt that we bought last year to address that demo. We’re investing the team in the product and in marketing to drive user growth. Slide 14 shows that we start at the time of our IPO with net leverage of 4.1 times. From there we’ve reduced leverage significantly, even while returning over $1.2 billion in capital to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. We ended Q4 2019 at 1.5 times net leverage below our target. As we announced in December, we will be paying $3 per share of cash consideration or approximately $840 million in aggregate at the time of the separation from IAC. We intend to use cash on hand and a new debt raise of about $500 million to fund this amount. Including our assumption of $1.7 billion of exchangeables from IAC, we believe our net leverage will be at 4.2 times when the transaction is expected to close in Q2. We are highly confident that through a combination of EBITDA growth and some debt pay down, we will delever to under 3 times net leverage over the 18 months following the separation. In fact, we believe, we can delever even more significantly than that unless we find appealing M&A or investment targets. If you look at the right side of Slide 14, you can see that we generated $620 million of free cash flow in 2019 and converted nearly 80% of our EBITDA to free cash flow. On Slide 15, we have our latest financial outlook. On our last earnings call, we provided a preliminary outlook for 2020. And now that we’ve completed our financial planning process, we’re reaffirming what we said last time. For 2020, we believe we can achieve mid- to high-teens revenue and EBITDA growth. We expect Tinder to be the primary growth driver for us again in 2020, adding a similar amount of direct revenue year-over-year as it did in 2019. Over the last couple of years, we’ve targeted $1 million or more average subscriber additions for Tinder at the start of the year and that is our target again for 2020. While that is our target there are few things worth noting. The new cancellation flows in iOS 13 was negatively impacted our cancellation rates in Q4, especially late in the quarter, will have a carryover negative impact on Q1 sequential net additions at Tinder. iOS 13 adoption ramped up from under 20% in October to around 85% in January, including a step change at the end of December, when there was a forced upgrade to iOS 13. As the existing Tinder paid members encountered this experience for the first time, cancellations rise. This elevated level of cancellations is expected to be concentrated in the month of November through February. The high levels of adoption rates already reached for iOS 13 give us confidence that its effect on Tinder cancellations will lessen after Q1 2020. Importantly, despite the sequential net adds math, we’re expecting a very healthy Q1 for Tinder with revenue growth in the mid-30% range and even higher growth in new subscriptions. It is also important to keep in mind the key focuses of our Tinder product roadmap this year, which maybe went through. We have a number of important à la carte features planned, primarily to target power users willing to pay a premium for special advantages and benefits on Tinder. These features, which we plan for the second half of 2020 are more focused on ARPU increases. Additionally, as we expand Tinder in Asia, where customers are more accustomed to pay as you go models as opposed to buying monthly subscriptions, we plan to adjust our monetization models. It is important that we customize our product to the preferences of users in each country and that is a major objective for Tinder in 2020. We have a lot of experimentation planned this year to settle on the right monetization models in all these countries. This makes estimating subscriber additions and ARPU improvements difficult to pinpoint with precision at this time, particularly on a quarterly basis. As you all know though, our focus is on delivering our revenue goals, not driving specific KPIs. Also, it’s important to recognize that the roadmap for tinder is loaded in the first half of the year with important safety initiatives and laying infrastructure groundwork for the new monetization models in Asia that we plan to roll out in the second half of the year. With all this considered, we have confidence in the full year growth expectations and subscriber net additions at Tinder that I mentioned previously. Given the product cadence as well the iOS impacts, we expect Tinder sequential average subscriber additions to be more weighted to the back-half of the year. We also expect solid single-digit year-over-year growth in ARPU at Tinder in 2020. We believe that our non-Tinder businesses will contribute increasingly to the company’s revenue growth as 2020 progresses. Hinge, Pairs, OkCupid, Meetic, Chispa and BLK are all on solid growth trajectories, and our live streaming project at PlentyOfFish should add solid revenue growth as well. Notably, the focus on monetization at Hinge will help drive improvement in revenue growth at the non-Tinder brands. But depending on what levers we pull, growth in non-Tinder average subscribers may be impacted. But again, we’re focused on revenue optimization, not driving specific KPIs. In 2020, we expect to increase marketing spend at a fairly large number of our brands that are showing momentum. For example, as Mandy mentioned, OkCupid is planning to take its playbook and momentum to a number of Asian markets, including Malaysia and Indonesia, where we expect to see increased marketing spend. We’re also planning to invest in marketing for our Muslim-focused product and our new Pairs Engage product in Japan. We anticipate that our 2020 EBITDA will also be impacted by approximately $25 million of higher legal cost year-over-year, primarily in the first half as well as by approximately $5 million to $10 million of separation-related costs, the bulk of which we expect in Q2 as the deal closes. For Q1 2020, we expect total revenue of $545 million to $555 million for year-over-year growth of 17% to 19% and EBITDA of $170 million to $175 million. The Q1 EBITDA range reflects the heavier marketing push we are planning to make as well as $10 million of year-over-year higher legal costs. The other items for 2020 that we list on Slide 15 are generally pretty straight forward, but I did want to point out a few things. First, the impact of the separation is such that we don’t expect to be a full domestic cash taxpayer until 2022, 1 year later than we previously had expected. Second, we’re assuming an incremental $500 million debt raise in 2020, which will increase our cash interest costs, as well as the $1.7 billion of exchangeables we’ll be assuming from IAC upon the separation. Last, we’re expecting CapEx in 2020 to be higher than it’s been recently, because we plan to remodel one of the former IAC buildings in LA. As we begin 2020, our 5th full year as a public company, the business is in terrific shape. Tinder has grown like few other companies before it. We’re working to attract the next generation of users, expand the business globally and drive continued outstanding revenue and profit growth. Away from Tinder, we successfully achieved growth at many of our other brands and have made new bets that have begun to pay off or are well positioned to do so. We landed in a good place with the terms of the separation from IAC and are confident we’ll have the financial flexibility we need to invest in our acquired businesses, where we see strategic fit. We believe there are a few companies poised to deliver the combination of growth, profitability and free cash flow generation over the next 5 years that we expect to deliver. We’ve been best-in-class in terms of these metrics since our IPO. And we believe our strong track record will continue. With that, I’ll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from John Blackledge of Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great. Thanks, 2 questions. First, Mandy, congratulations on your strong leadership and execution; and, Shar, congratulations on being named CEO. Shar, just kind of curious about your view of the strategic direction and investment strategy for Tinder and the non-Tinder assets relative to Mandy’s view. And then, second question would be, Gary, aside from iOS 13, any other kind of swing factors for the 1-million-plus Tinder net add guide for 2020? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
Thank you, John. This is actually a great question for me to start my first call with. And I know some of you are wondering if and what changes with this change. I want to say if there ever was continuity and strategy and operating rhythm with management change, this is probably it. Mandy and I have had a long partnership, obviously, but we worked very closely in running this business, particularly over the last couple of years and my taking over does not change our core strategy. At the highest level, the way I think about it, we are a technology company in the service of a very fundamental human need, the need for love and meaningful relationships. Mandy and I have seen this category develop in the U.S. and Western Europe. When we started, about 3% of people met online. And today, that number is over 40%. But not only is it now the number 1 way people meet in development markets, there are now independent studies that show that these relationships that started online are actually stronger and happier than traditional ones. So we’re now committed to bringing the same level of success in much of the rest of the world, where we think category penetration is still quite low. So in the near term, our growth levers continue to be Tinder, international, video and new bets that both Mandy and Gary mentioned like Hinge, and our demographic-specific apps. But I did want to take a slightly longer and broader view and point out a couple of things about our business. I’ve been here a long time, but what gets me particularly excited now about this category is that we have both technology and consumer behavior and acceptance reach a point that allows us to evolve our products from an almost pure introduction service with a swipe and search to match, to message type of a paradigm, to a much richer, live and fun experience for people to discover, meet and flirt and truly date online. And this is going to allow us to create new surface areas on the app for our users to engage with. And in turn, this opens up new monetization mechanics we haven’t tried on our apps before. The other thing I want to point out, we have a very large global and a high intent user base. And we monetize a rather small portion of it through a small number of revenue features and a limiting subscription model. We haven’t yet tried offering additional products and services that enhance their dating journey. I personally have a long experience with product and revenue. And I know the teams are working in some interesting new engagement and monetization mechanics across our various platforms, including Tinder. And I hope to be able to talk more about these as the year progresses. Gary, you want to take the second one?
Gary Swidler:
Sure. So, John, I know there is a lot of focus, obviously, on the net-add number, in the 1 million. I just want to remind you again, we focus on driving revenue at Tinder, not particularly driving just the sub-number, just the ARPU number. So we look at it in combination. Sitting here today, 1 month into the year or so, what we’re saying is that we think we can do a million sub additions or better for the year and we have a lot of confidence in hitting that target. We know it’s an important target to hit. But as I talked about in my remarks and Mandy talked about in her remarks, there is a lot of different swing factors that are going to affect the trade-off that we make and kind of where each of these KPIs namely ARPU and subscriber additions land, and Shar just talked about it as well. We’re focused on tailoring the product in the Asian markets, which may lead to more a la carte and more ARPU, less than subscriber list. We’re focused on a lot of different prognosis. We’ve got an extremely busy product roadmap at Tinder all through this year. And so, as we’ve seen on a platform of scale, like we have at Tinder, even small things can sometimes lead to significant win. So we’re going to try a lot of different things. We have a lot of confidence. We’ve got a lot of interesting things to roll out. And I think if we execute better, if we get some bigger wins than we’re expecting, that number of 1 million certainly could be higher. But it will depend on what we choose to focus on and where we have success, whether it’s on the a-la-carte side, whether it’s on the subscriber inside or whether it’s on both of those things, which obviously would lead to upside for us overall. So that’s what we have to do. We’re busy executing this. We got a lot of confidence in the Tinder team and the product team that they can execute. We got a lot of things to consider and we’ll certainly see how the year plays out. But we’re mindful of the revenue goals we need to deliver. Subs are clearly a component of that. And we’re going to make a number of trade-offs as the year progresses to land in a place that I think everyone will feel good about.
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, John.
Operator:
The next question comes from Doug Anmuth of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thanks for taking the question. Gary, I was hoping you could just go into some more detail on the 4Q sub dynamics. You talked about iOS 13 ramping up late in the quarter. Can you give us – it sounds like that’s more of a churn thing. Can you give us a sense on how you feel about gross adds in the quarter, and also whether there were any other factors that may have impacted? Is there any way to quantify iOS 13 and then how that plays out as you go into these first few months of 2020? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Yeah, so, again, I tried to go through some of that in my remarks. But I know there is a big question that you all have and there’s a lot of moving parts to it. So let me try to kind of step people through this methodically. So unlike a lot of apps out there like Netflix, where people rarely just to delete the app entirely from their phone, maybe they cancel their subscription, but they don’t necessarily delete the app. Daters behave differently. As they meet people, as things are happening in their lives, they do tend to delete the app and reinstall the app as well. So we are a periodic usage business, which is different than a lot of the other subscription businesses that you are used to seeing. And so, these Apple changes that were made did affect our business more than many other subscription businesses that are out there as they changed the cancellation flow. And what we do see is that, for people who delete the app, when they hit that new cancellation flow for the first time, we see an elevated level of cancellations. It’s not the case for the second or third by the time they encounter that cancellation flow. So now we’ve seen a few months of data on this and we’re confident that that’s the case. It’s really the first time that they encounter that new cancellation flow. And what we’ve been able to see as this has rolled out is that the curve that we see on the elevated cancellations, really follow the adoption curve for the iOS 13 upgrade. So the cancellations ticked up with a little bit of a delay, but they basically ticked up as iOS 13 was adopted. And so, that started kind of in the 20% range back in October, when iOS 13 was first rolled out, but now the adoption there is probably in the 85% to 90% range. So what that tells us is pretty much everyone who can has got iOS 13 at this point. And so we have confidence that the effect of the higher cancellations from iOS 13 is going to dissipate now that we’ve kind of reached the ceiling in terms of the upgrade to iOS 13. The thing that surprised us in Q4 that we hadn’t been expecting is that instead of allowing people to voluntarily upgrade to iOS 13 over time, Apple required all users to do it towards the end of the quarter. And so that led to a step change in the cancellations that we were not expecting when we talked about our fourth quarter expectations on our last call. So that was really the surprise. So it is a churn issue. If you look at our gross adds, they’re extremely healthy, they continue to increase sequentially, they increased in Q4. They grew again in January, so I have confidence they are going to grow for the first quarter. So gross adds really are strong. And this really is ultimately a cancellation issue, which we think will dissipate. I think the effect is going to linger through Q1. There may be some tiny impact on Q2. But I think, ultimately, we’re going to get through this. And we have confidence that the impact is really boxed in, in terms of elevated cancellations from kind of the November timeframe to February. So that’s why, as we talk about our outlook for the year and 1 million net adds if you look at it, if we – we have confidence in that number. And so if that number is lower at the start of the year, it means that we expect that our product roadmap and the lessening of the impact from the iOS 13 upgrade is going to lead to a stronger number of net adds later in the year so that we can hit the 1 million. And I think sitting here today, that’s what we have confidence in. And we’re hard at work on the road map to make sure that we are able to achieve that. And that’s where we sit today. Again, I just want to stress, we focus overall on revenue. And so we’ll have to determine what trade-offs we make between the net adds growth and à la carte growth and ARPU growth. And so we’ll see how that works out. But again as I said to John, in answering the last call, we see that small wins can really lead to big impacts on the Tinder platform. We’ve got a lot of things in the hopper to get us there. So we’ll see how the year kind of progresses and lays out. But we feel good that, we are having this temporary headwind from the iOS cancellation flow, but it’s going to dissipate. And overall, the year looks to be in good shape for us. Shar, Mandy, anything that you want to add?
Shar Dubey:
Yeah. The only thing I want to add, I know, we’ve said in the past about the stock effect of new features that we launch and how – when we expose a new feature to the entire user base you see an abnormal increase in gross adds and then eventually that levels out. This is sort of – think of this as elevated terms in reverse, right? And so as the vast majority of our paid members encounter this new experience for the first time, we’re seeing an elevated level of termination, which ultimately is going to level out.
Douglas Anmuth:
Great. Thank you both for the details.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Thanks, Doug.
Operator:
The next question comes from Kunal Madhukar of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Kunal Madhukar:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Question regarding the Facebook Dating and the impact on other brands. So on its fourth quarter call, Facebook said Facebook Dating is going to really well, it’s become one of the top dating services, and we expect to continue growing. So we get that consumers use multiple apps, and given Facebook’s immense global user base, it is not surprising that they may very well be one of the top dating services. At our conference last year, you had shown some statistics that’s tested that Facebook Dating did not really impact Tinder. What about other brands? How is that impacting other brands or not impacting other brands?
Mandy Ginsberg:
Sure. Let me take that one, Kunal. So as you said, I mean, despite the fact that Facebook launched dating over a year ago internationally and then late last year in the U.S., our fundamental view has not changed. And it’s not changed just because that’s what we thought, it changed based on the data that we’re seeing. Awareness, certainly for Facebook Dating, is growing, and they’ve been promoting it inside of their app. And of course, we are not going to underestimate Facebook, given how many millions of millions of users are on their platform and the friction is low, so why not have people try it? So why wouldn’t people try it? That said, we watched pretty obsessively every KPI across all of our brands. And we really have not seen any correlated negative impact across any of those brands, even the brands that we were more concerned about, that we thought there could be more overlap, but we just haven’t seen it. There has been a lot of multi-app usage, so people under 35 were using 3 to 4 apps that’s still growing. And so not surprising that one of these apps or there could be incremental usage as a result of Facebook, given sort of how long the friction is. We also – we haven’t seen an impact in any other platforms. We’ve also been watching clearly on Tinder, too. We believe there’s very little overlap on Tinder, which is obviously our largest app is young people, 19-year olds, 18-year olds, 20-year olds, they’re just not signing up for Facebook, which is not surprising since that’s probably where their parents would be. And over time, places like in Asia, the more people who use products and the more rich the competitive landscape is, we actually think could help normalize this category and raise – the tide that raises all ships. It actually could be beneficial for the category purposes. So we are still cautious, and we’ll never have too much interest around this, because they’re a big player. But we think that we can compete, and the reason we think can compete is because we will continue to aggressively innovate our products. And that’s the one thing we do every single day, and we do think that, that provides some advantage.
Kunal Madhukar:
Thanks, Mandy. Wish you the best.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Eric Sheridan of UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks so much. Maybe 2, if I could, one on earnings. Mandy, a lot of investors have also reached out, passed along, thanks for leadership over the last couple of years in the public domain and wishing you well going forward. More back to earnings, maybe for Gary. Gary, just thinking through the revenue commentary on Slide 15, you talked about Tinder giving most of the growth and comparable level of incremental revenue dollars. Turning away from Tinder can you just walk through maybe the building blocks of the non-Tinder business, how that momentum through 2020 progresses, and understanding some of the investments behind building that momentum as well. Thanks so much.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Happy to do that. So if you go back in time a little bit, we’ve been talking about Tinder being our growth driver and then the non-Tinder brands in aggregate being flat. And we were saying we’re going to try to get those back to growth. And the reality now is that a lot of the brands in the non-Tinder bucket have returned to some level of growth. So we think it was significant that we achieved overall subscriber growth of non-Tinder brands year-over-year in the fourth quarter. That was a milestone that we were shooting for, and I mentioned that we hit it. And our plan really is to drive overall growth from the non-Tinder brands in 2020. And the fact the subs grew in Q4, and that we see the trends that are positive at a large number of the non-Tinder brands, gives us confidence that we’re on the path to get there. So I think that the growth will start out pretty modestly in 2020 – in the early part of the year, but it will ramp and progress over time as we get through the year. And so we feel good about that. Obviously, kind of where we end up on our overall guidance range will be impacted by how much growth we’re able to drive out of the non-Tinder brands as well, of course, is where we end up specifically on the Tinder side, but those are some of the swing factors in the outlook. I think, when you kind of look at the individual brands, and I highlighted some of this in our – in my remarks, Hinge is starting to grow nicely we feel great about the progress you made user growth wise. We’re starting to get to the point now where we’re focusing on monetization. We think that will drive revenue for us in 2020. Pairs in Japan has been a revenue growth story for a while for us now, and the outlook is very good for that business. OkCupid has been a turnaround story in North America, we’ve gotten to the point where it’s growing close to 10%, as Mandy said. And we feel good about the [a la carte] [ph] for OkCupid, not only in North America, but also its always international efforts. So those are very early days. And so that’s going to take a while to contribute to growth. Chispa, BLK are still businesses that we’re investing in. But in general, our starting monetization, and we feel like they should add to the revenue picture as well. And now we’ve been able to get Meetic back to some level of growth in Europe. It’s modest, but it is in the positive comp as well. So we feel good about that. And obviously, turning things from a drag into a contributor, even if modest, is very helpful. So, on the other side of the ledger, you’ve got the affinity businesses, some of which we’ve been running down, and we continue to run down and not really invest in from a marketing standpoint. And Match has been a place where we’ve been working on the product. We’ve been working on marketing. We’ve made some progress. We haven’t quite gotten it to a point where we can put it into the growth column, but we continue to work on it. And we’re hoping that as the year progresses, Match will show some improvement. So those are a lot of moving pieces. The story is a little bit more complicated than just saying in aggregate, it’s flat. But we see enough green shoots in a lot of these businesses or, even better than that, actual revenue growth contribution that we feel good. And the question is, how much growth can we drive out of those businesses? Then on the other side of the coin, you’ve got the investments we’re making in kind of longer-term bets, in the Pairs-engaged matrimony business, which we think can contribute revenue for us, but it’s a longer term play. It’s probably late 2020 into 2021 or beyond that it’s going to really contribute for us. The same is true of the Muslim app that we’re focused on. So I think that’s how we look at it. Hinge was something we made investments in, we’ve gotten it to the point now, where it’s going to contribute revenue in 2020, and ultimately get the profitability. Chispa, BLK, kind of a similar trajectory, and our goal is to kind of keep moving either the legacy brands into the growth category or making investments and drive the new bets into the revenue contribution category as well. So that is the business we’re in. We feel good about the trajectory of virtually all of these businesses. And that gives us a number of additional growth drivers beyond just Tinder that really kind of round out and help us diversify the overall financial profile of the business. And so that’s what – why we feel, we are in good shape as we enter into 2020.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks so much for the color.
Gary Swidler:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brent Thill of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Good morning, Gary. North America revenue declined sequentially for the first time ever, is this all related to the Apple iOS change or any other reasons behind that in North America?
Mandy Ginsberg:
Let me take that. I think this is not the way that we look at the business, and you shouldn’t either. Year-over-year trends are much more important in all our businesses, including Tinder. There’s just real seasonality in our business, there always have been since I’ve been here, especially quarter-to-quarter in Q4, because people in Q4 sort of obvious, they focus more between in the U.S., for example, Thanksgiving and Christmas, more on their families and less on dating, naturally and we see that showing up in our numbers, and I bet that if you look at 2018 Q3 to Q4, you probably see sequential revenue growth is negligible as well. We just expect there to be a deceleration between those 2 quarters. And then also in Q4, it’s the lowest marketing spend for most of our businesses, that’s when it’s just not ideal time to spend marketing, because you just don’t have the right sense of attention and mentality for daters. And in fact, this year – past year in Q4, we had lower marketing spend at Match, the lowest we’ve had at Match, because we’ve been pulling spend back. We are excited about the year-over-year subscriber growth of the non-Tinder brand and we do think that this does set us up well for next year. So I would, again, sort of not look at the sequential, because it’s not really the right way to look at it, but the year-over-year is probably the more relevant metric.
Brent Thill:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Benjamin Black of Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Hey, thanks for the question. And Mandy, congrats on a great run and we wish you all the success in the future. I have a quick question on Hinge, how would you say trends are there? Trends in terms of features, users, monetization, geographic rollout, how these tracking against your internal expectations? And separately, how would you describe the competitive environment at Hinge and what are some of the lever that you think you can pull in 2020 and 2021 to help narrow that ARPU and conversion gap you mentioned with Tinder? And then separately, sales and marketing came in well below outlook. How much of this was related to the timing shift that you mentioned? And what portion do you think could be attributed to perhaps a newer run rate going forward? Thanks very much.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Let me take the Hinge question, and then Gary can take the marketing one. The last couple – so, first of all, we feel great about Hinge. So the last two years is really focused on user growth. And now, I’ve talked about, kind of putting the spotlight on monetization, which includes new revenue features, merchandising, pricing all the things that we have done for many, many years and have a proven playbook. There are number of proven revenue features on Tinder and our other brands that we just haven’t put on Hinge yet. And we think that that’s a real opportunity. And, of course, we sort of make whatever feature relevant to Hinge and adapt that feature to the Hinge ecosystem. But, like I said, this is sort of we’re really, really early on, the early innings of the monetization playbook on Hinge. And to the extent that we focus on pricing, that’s obviously won’t drive subs, but we’re going to find the right mix that optimizes revenue. So we’re not too hung up on sub number or ARPU, we’re just trying to figure out the maximization of the levers. And then you asked about competition. It is clear that Hinge is incredibly competitive and it’s gaining huge traction among the relationship minded millennials and not just in North America, but international markets, we see really nice growth in the UK and Australia. Hinge targets a different segment of the market than Tinder, for example, because its users tend to be more serious, not that there is not some overlap, but Tinder’s core demo is really that young college audience. It’s more around – it is just more social, little bit more fun. And Hinge is mostly for urban millennials that are like, okay, I have job now, I need to get serious about my life, including my dating life. And so, we think that having this product for this place in the market really fits beautifully into our portfolio. And we think it is definitely competitive and we are seeing it gain ground against other competitors in that relationship-focused space.
Gary Swidler:
In terms of the marketing shift out, we beat our EBITDA expectations. And that was in part driven by a marketing shift out. It probably was in the neighborhood of $5 million or so. There are couple of reasons for that. I mean, first of all, the fourth quarter is generally a time where we tend to be pretty judicious, because it’s not a great time to spend marketing dollars and get strong returns. And so, when we don’t see opportunities, we just kind of save the money and push it out to the next quarter. And so, that was a part of what was going on, given it was Q4. We didn’t see returns that we thought were appropriate. We didn’t spend the money. And then the second, which I alluded to in my remarks is there were a couple of places where we are planning to spend marketing dollars. In India and in Australia for our Tinder brand as well as our OkCupid brand, that because of things that were going on in the countries there, protest in India and wildfires in Australia, which obviously were totally out of our control, we decided it didn’t make sense to spend those marketing dollars in those countries. So we’re going to come back as things have calmed down and spend that, hopefully in the first quarter. So I don’t think it’s right to say that this is kind of a new kind of run-rate level. I think we’re going to go back to our more typical levels of marketing spend. And we have a lot of things underway to do that. Q1 is a good marketing spend quarter for us. We’re planning to try to be aggressive across a lot of these brands, where we see the opportunity for growth as well as a lot of these new bets that we want to drive in 2020. So our strategy remains unchanged, even though we did have this dip in sales and marketing as a percent of revenue in Q4, because our job is to drive growth and we want to make those marketing investments. And we’ve got a lot of platforms where we see positive signs of potential growth or growth itself that we want to invest in. So I think you have to look at Q4 as an artificially low level and some things that are out of our control that drove the shift out, plus the discipline we typically have in Q4 especially and we’re going to kind of go from there.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
And the last question today will come from Michael Ng of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Ng:
Thank you for the question. This one is just on Tinder. So with the new revenue features concentrated in second half and primarily focused on a la carte, power users, can you just talk a little bit more about the single-digit-growth outlook for ARPU in 2020? How should that phase throughout the year? And are there any examples of the a-la-carte opportunities that you see for Tinder that you can share with us today? Thank you.
Shar Dubey:
I can take this. Mandy and Gary already talked a little bit about Tinder’s roadmap cadence and the focus on a la carte. So maybe I try to lay out a framework of how to think about monetization on our platform models generally, and then Tinder specifically. So if you think about content platforms, you mostly pay for access and subscription models make sense there. On platform such as games, you pay for advantages. And it lends itself more to a consumable pay model. We are sort of a unique in a lot of ways. Up until about 3 years ago, we had only pay-for-access subscription models on most of our platforms. And then we started experimenting with a couple of pay-for-advantage features, on Tinder particularly. And they’ve done really well and they already contribute north of 25% of our direct revenue. So we think we have a real opportunity to do more on the pay-for-advantage area and hence the focus on a la carte. I can’t get into specifics of what it is that we’re planning, but we’ve got some cool stuff, the teams experimenting with. And then, one other part of what we’re saying about these Asian markets in particular, these are markets we are starting to play meaningfully in, but consumers are not used to the recurring subscription model. And so, in these markets there is a real opportunity to tailor even our access features into more of a pay-as-you-go model. And so, that’s where sort of the trade-off between subscribers and ARPU plays out. We’re going to do a lot of experimentation this year. Ultimately as Gary and Mandy keep saying, we are in the business of maximizing revenue and that’s what we’re focused on. And we’ll see how it all sort of levels out, but there is going to be a lot of work in this area for Tinder this year.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Before I wrap up, I just wanted to quickly say just one last word, which is, thank you so much for all the support from the people on this call and our investors. I did debate how transparent I should be about my personal life and I’ve always been an open book. We’ve always been a company that’s been very transparent and I kind of made that bet. And the outpour and the kind words have been humbling. So thank you for that. The last group of people I feel like I need to thank are the people at this company, and of course, in this room. It has been an honor to come to work with these incredible human beings that I’ve got to work with every single day. With Gary, in his expanded role as COO, and Shar, who you guys are going to love getting to know. And I just think that they’ve got the experience, the passion, and the vision to take this business forward. And I would wish them luck, but they really don’t need any. They really have what it takes in the future. And there is oftentimes that Shar and I would tell the team and the Board, we got this. And I can guarantee you, they got this. So, with that, thanks for joining the call and thank you for everything.
Operator:
This concludes the question-and-answer session and the Match Group conference call. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Match Group Third Quarter 2019 Earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thanks Operator. Today’s call will be led by CEO Mandy Ginsburg and CFO Gary Swidler. They will review the third quarter investor presentation that’s available on our website and then answer questions. Before we start, I’d like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainty and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Now over to you, Mandy.
Mandy Ginsburg:
Thanks Lance, and good morning everyone. Welcome to our 2019 third quarter earnings call. Our growth accelerated in Q3, which is our strongest quarter yet in what has already been an extremely successful year. Not only has the team driven phenomenal results, we have the scale, margin profile and diversity of brands to deliver record results while at the same time making new bets and investments that we believe will drive strong and consistent growth in the future. Before I take you through some of these growth initiatives, I want to briefly touch upon IAC’s proposal to fully separate Match Group from IAC. As you know, our board has formed a special committee of independent directors to evaluate IAC’s proposal. A summary of that proposal and the expected process going forward were outlined in a 13D filed last month on October 11. Unfortunately, there’s not really much we can say until the committee has agreed with IAC on a structure that they are ready to recommend to the interested shareholders of Match Group, so on this call we can’t really comment on the transaction; but of course, we can comment on our great results. With that, let’s jump right into the presentation, starting on Slide 3. You’ve heard me say the key objective for Tinder is to deliver an effective, engaging and fun core experience for all of our users on the app. That core experience is a fundamental driver of user retention and engagement which ultimately leads to better user outcomes, meaning more matches, more dates, and more relationships. In addition, we have focused on monetizing opportunities that will give users tools they find valuable and are willing to pay for because they provide a more efficient and effective experience on Tinder. Slide 3 illustrates how Tinder’s core experience has led to remarkably high and stable user retention over the long run. The last chart shows that we’ve maintained strong engagement over the last several years at the same time we’ve driven user growth in revenue. Eighty-five percent of our users who are active on any given day will return the following month, and you can see that hasn’t changed since we started monetizing Tinder several years ago. Our users find real value in the product and they demonstrate that by coming back to the app again and again. Over 60% of Tinder users are active on it six days per week. The average Tinder user is active more than five days a week, and that number keeps growing. The number of users active every single day of the week has increased by 30% this year. In addition to these healthy retention and daily usage metrics, we’ve seen a meaningful lift in matches and messages since the launch of Tinder Gold two years ago. These metrics have shown continued strength even as we ramp growth throughout Asia and Latin America. Revenue growth for all these regions has been accelerating. Tinder is the highest grossing lifestyle app in roughly 100 countries around the world, yet it remains very underpenetrated in virtually all of them. In particular, large markets such as Japan, India and South Korea present major opportunities for Tinder, and we’ve been making meaningful strides in each of those markets. There is a long list of other countries that individually generate less revenue but present us with a large opportunity for growth in aggregate. These countries have strong societal tailwinds as more and more young people are dating and choosing their own partners. Localizing and marketing the product internationally is a key part of Tinder’s growth strategy. We believe this will help grow brand awareness, shape perception, and tap into local consumer behavior. The right-hand chart shows that these core efforts are driving growth in the business. If you turn to Slide 4, you will see one of our recent initiatives, Swipe Night. This demonstrates how we are continuing to innovate to make sure Tinder remains the iconic lifestyle brand for young singles. Swipe Night was a big creative swing in product innovation that is a real first in the category. Swipe Night is an in-app, first person five-minute interactive video series where at key turning points, people use the swipe feature to decide what happens to them next. Your choices dictate how the adventure unfolds and who you mess with, and we tag profiles with the choices people made to create natural ice breakers. The episodes aired every Sunday night in October in the U.S. Millions of users interacted with Swipe Night, leading to a 20% to 25% increase in likes and a 30% increase in matches. We also saw elevated conversation levels for days after the episodes ran, and female engagement, which is an incredibly important metric in any dating app, increased as a result as well. There was also a tremendous amount of positive buzz in the press and social media around Swipe Night, highlighting this first of its kind experience. This really extended our appeal and resonated with Gen Z users. We’re planning to make Season 1 available on demand soon and will roll this out in key international markets early next year. This effort demonstrates the kind of creativity and team we have at Tinder and the kind of bets we’re willing to make. Swipe Night is just one example of the many innovative initiatives you can expect to see from Tinder in the coming quarters to continue to grow our influence around the world. Let’s now turn to Slide 5. This slide highlights some of the other bets we’re making across the portfolio. They include fueling the rapid growth at Hinge, growing OK Cupid in India and beyond, and continuing to address specific demos through Chispa and BLK. Hinge’s product continues to gain traction with relationship-minded millennials. Its recent new marketing campaigns have given the brand a sustained lift and new users, and we expect to continue to invest in their momentum. We see plenty of room for Hinge to grow in English-speaking countries, which remains a focus for today. Until now, the Hinge team has been focused on user growth and product experience, but in 2020 we plan to shift the focus to improving monetization. We expect that these monetization efforts will gradually help offset the people, product and marketing investments we’ve been making in that business. Moving to the center of the page, OK Cupid has achieved tremendous growth in India since we started investing there late 2018. They generated significant traction, especially compared to both domestic and international competitors operating in India. As a result of OK Cupid’s success in India, we’ve begun a similar push in Israel and Turkey this quarter, and we have plans in 2020 to push in even more countries where OK Cupid already has measurable organic traction. Last, Chispa and BLK have both been able to achieve strong growth in the U.S. within their respective demos of Latinos and African Americans. We’re in the early innings of monetization at both apps but progress is strong, and we’re optimistic we’ll be able to drive solid subscriber and revenue growth at both brands in 2020. On Slide 6, I want to cover some exciting new initiatives in live video that we’ve recently launched or will be launching soon, that we think could further expand our addressable market. Our company mission is to drive meaningful connections for every single person globally, and we recognize that video can be an important enabler of those connections. Chatting with friends and family using live video is ubiquitous today. It’s evident that video has become a primary form of communication and expression, especially for Gen Z and younger, but beyond using video with people you know, innovative live video experiences offer ways to get to know someone new. It could by chatting with someone new on a one-to-one basis or by watching someone’s personality shine through as they’re live streaming to a group. We know that many singles remain reluctant to use overt dating apps, and meeting people through live video experiences can provide a powerful alibi for fostering new connections. We’re excited by these consumer trends and are in the process of launching a few small tests of live streaming broadcasts on both Plenty of Fish and Twoo, where we have very large global user bases. In addition to the core matching and messaging experience on these brands, our users will be able to join live streaming communities. They can chat directly with live broadcasters or with other users who are viewing the same broadcast. We think live streaming could be a great feature that helps build community and ultimately more engagement between our users. In addition to potentially driving higher engagement, live streaming offers new potential monetization avenues that don’t currently exist in our portfolio. We did evaluate building this capability in-house, but in an effort to get these tests up and running quickly and with minimal start-up cost, we ultimately decided to leverage the SDKs of two different third party platforms. This is our first foray into live streaming, so we’ll be closely watching these tests to understand the adoption rates and how it impacts the overall ecosystem of our two brands in this test. Moving to the right side of this slide, research shows that despite being more connected than ever before, people are lonelier. Just under half of all Americans report feeling lonely, and this is unfortunately worse in younger demos. Our products aim to enable users to make real life connections and get on dates in the real world. We also think enabling conversations to take place virtually can play a role in creating positive connections and combating loneliness. With these trends in mind, we’ve internally incubated a one-on-one live video app called ablo. ablo enables one-on-one video connections between people from all over the world. This is very different from our other products which are geared to delivering in-person or IRL dates. This app allows two people to connect in real time regardless of location and language. The app will translate language simultaneously so two people who don’t have a language in common can, quote-unquote, talk to each other. ablo has grown to over 2.5 million registered users since it launched earlier this year, with the vast majority of users under the age of 35. ablo users have embraced the concept of connecting with people from all over the globe. They view it as enabling traveling without having to go anywhere. They cite making new friends from other cultures and other backgrounds as one of the biggest reasons for using the app. We see people have great conversations about their cultures, where they work, best places to travel, and they even share their favorite recipes. We believe ablo gives us a different use case beyond dating and allows us a broadly addressable market, and we hope it can help our users feel more connected and perhaps even less alone. It’s still early, but ablo has seen solid retention trends and strong App Store ratings. The app is off to a nice start, and we plan to continue investing in the product and its growth. This is another example where we’re investing in exciting and innovative products to further fuel long-term growth for the business. Before I wrap up, I want to emphasize that across the company, we are launching new and exciting features as well as expanding brands into new markets where we see opportunity. I am extremely optimistic about the future and strongly believe we are making smart investments to capture an even larger piece of a growing market and deliver sustained growth at strong levels of profitability. Gary is going to take you through our fantastic results for Q3 along with an early look at our outlook for 2020, so with that, Gary?
Gary Swidler:
Thanks Mandy. As you said, we had another terrific quarter in Q3 with accelerating growth on top and bottom lines, continued excellent performance at Tinder, and improvement in non-Tinder subscriber trends. We’re progressing on our strategic plan to position the company for consistent strong growth. This year, we’re making a significant amount of product and marketing investments that we believe will drive sustained, long-term global growth for the company through newer bets and by improving the performance of more mature brands. Even with these investments, we’re on track for extremely solid financial performance in 2019. Let’s get into the details for the quarter, then I’ll update on our financial outlook. On Slide 8, we review Tinder performance, which continues to shine. Q3 year-over-year growth in direct revenue of 49% accelerated from 2Q19 driven by 38% growth in average subscribers and 9% growth in ARPU. A big driver of Tinder’s growth in the quarter was the Gold homepage redesign, which was released on Android in July following its success in iOS. That helped drive a sequential increase of 437,000 average subscribers in Q3. Tinder remains on track to add approximately 1.6 million average subscribers this year, which will be our highest ever annual total. Much of this growth has been driven by a long list of new product features and optimizing existing paid features rather than one large new revenue feature. This success clearly demonstrates what we can do on a platform of Tinder’s scale. Underlying Tinder’s continued growth is an extremely active and engaged ecosystem of users, both free and paid, which Mandy highlighted earlier in the call. On Slide 9, you can see the year-over-year growth in average subscribers across the company’s brands accelerated in Q3 with overall average subscriber growth of 19%, a point better than in 2Q19. Year-over-year growth in North American and international subscribers also each accelerated from Q2. International subscriber growth was particularly strong, driven primarily by Tinder and Pairs, but other brands contributed as well. Non-Tinder subscribers performed better than they have in quite some time. A number of our more mature businesses as well as our new bets like Hinge, Chispa and BLK, are contributing to subscriber growth. All of this gives us confidence that we will have modest non-Tinder year-over-year subscriber growth in Q4, a trend that we expect to continue in 2020. Average subscribers for the quarter were just over 9.6 million, slightly over half from outside of North America. We expect the shift to a greater proportion of international subscribers to continue as our international growth efforts at both Tinder and our other brands progress. Slide 10 shows ARPU trends. Tinder’s ARPU has increased more than 70% over the past three years due to an increasing percentage of subscribers taking the higher priced Gold package as well as strong a-la-carte sales. Tinder’s ARPU is now essentially on par with the ARPU of our other brands, which has generally been quite stable. Tinder’s ARPU increased 9% year-over-year in the quarter, more on an FX neutral basis. We don’t believe we’ve reached the ceiling for Tinder ARPU. This quarter, overall company ARPU was up $0.02 year-over-year to $0.59. On an FX neutral basis, total company ARPU was up 6% to $0.60 and international ARPU was up 7%. Flipping to Slide 11, you can see that the company’s Q3 total revenue was $541 million, for year-over-year growth of 22%, an acceleration of four points from 2Q19. Total revenue growth would have been 24% without the impact of FX for total revenue of $550 million on a constant currency basis. Total direct revenue grew 23%. Our much smaller indirect revenue decreased 15%, which was an improvement from Q2 year-over-year results. We expect indirect revenue trends to gradually stabilize over time. The margin improved by a point over the prior year quarter. Selling and marketing spend declined as a percentage of revenue again this quarter by 3 points to 21%, mostly offset by [indiscernible] fee growth and higher legal expenses. Slide 12 shows that we started at the time of our IPO with gross leverage of 4.5 times. From there, we’ve reduced leverage fairly consistently by just over 50% in gross leverage. We ended 3Q19 at 2.2 times gross leverage and 1.7 times net leverage, below our targets. It’s notable that we’ve achieved this de-levering despite having paid a $556 million special dividend at the end of 2018 and having used $582 million of cash to buy back our shares over the past two years. We’ve also used $629 million of cash to net settle employee equity awards and pay employee withholding taxes since 2017. That’s nearly $1.8 billion in cash in aggregate, which certainly demonstrates the enormous cash generating power of our business. On Slide 13, we have our latest financial outlook. For 4Q19, we expect total revenue of $545 million to $555 million and $205 million to $210 million of EBITDA. Our revenue outlook includes about $6 million of incremental negative FX impacts, primarily from the euro and the pound against the dollar, since we provided our last financial outlook in August. We’re anticipating that our Q4 margin will be in line with 4Q18, even though we expect approximately $25 million in incremental legal costs and long-term oriented product and marketing investments compared to the prior year quarter. For full year 2019, we’re expecting to have both revenue and EBITDA growth in the high teens, well above our expectations when the year began. Our EBITDA for 2019 reflects investment in Hinge of approximately $20 million, which we had planned for at the beginning of the year. Our margin for full-year 2019 is being impacted by about $60 million of expenses we didn’t plan for at the outset of the year, which we’ve broadly bucketed into two categories. First, we’ve reinvested a portion of our outperformance this year back into our businesses, primarily at Tinder globally, OK Cupid in select international markets, Harmonica to address the Muslim demo globally, and Pairs Engage to capture some of the Japanese matrimonial market. We believe these investments will improve the company’s long term growth and enable us to further capture the large global market opportunity in front of us, especially in Asia. Second, we’re incurring higher legal and regulatory and other non-discretionary costs in 2019. This includes items such as the France digital services tax as well as increased costs related to various litigations we have underway. I also did want to call out that Apple made some recent changes to customer subscription management process that has had a negative impact on renewal dynamics across many of our brands. Apple’s changes are leading to a temporary increase in terminations which we believe are largely a pull forward of future cancellations. We expect this to impact Q4 and Q1 2020 subscriber net addition levels before the impact tails off. The changes are recent so we’re still watching the impacts, but we’ve factored it into our latest outlook. We’re in the midst of our planning process, but I wanted to share some high level expectations for 2020. For the year, we expect to achieve mid to high teens revenue growth once again. We anticipate this will be driven by continued strong growth at Tinder as well as by growth at a number of our other businesses. We expect to see aggregate subscriber growth in 2020 from our non-Tinder brands and of course continued strong growth from Tinder. Tinder has an ambitious product road map again in 2020. They are still in the process of determining the mix between user growth and engagement, subscription, and a-la-carte oriented features. We expect to continue to invest in 2020 in several of our new bets that are showing strong traction in their markets. Foremost is Hinge, which has tremendous product momentum and increasing brand awareness in the U.S. and other English-speaking markets. Hinge’s user growth is very strong and we’re about to turn our focus to subscriber and revenue growth. In addition to Hinge, where we expect a relatively small investment in 2020, we expect to continue to invest to grow OK Cupid in a number of markets globally. We also plan to continue to invest in BLK, Chispa, Ship, ablo, and Harmonica. While we expect to have incremental year-over-year legal costs next year, we expect that many of the key pending matters will reach conclusions by the end of 2020. I also want to note that if we proceed with the spinoff, we expect to incur advisor and other costs of up to $10 million in connection with the transaction. Even with our investments and some higher legal costs, we expect to achieve mid to high teens EBITDA growth for 2020 with EBITDA margins in line with 2019. We remain confident in the 40%-plus long-term margin target for the business. In fact, if you add back the $60 million of discretionary investments and non-discretionary items that we are incurring this year, our margins would be at about 40%. I wanted to share our current thinking about 2020 with you know, but we will be refining our plans through the rest of the year and will provide updates and more detail on our next earnings call in early February. With that, I’ll ask the Operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator instructions] Today’s first question comes from Mark Kelley of Nomura. Please go ahead.
Mark Kelley:
Good morning, thanks for taking my questions. The first one, can you just give us a little more color on the mix of discretionary and legal or regulatory expenses in 2020? I’m just curious what’s keeping margins flat next year. A little more color there would be helpful. Then second, and it’s related, I’m curious what Tinder margins would look like both this year and then what you would expect in 2020, just to give us a sense of the leverage that’s in the model excluding some of your long-term investments in newer bets. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me give that a shot. There’s a lot of moving pieces on the margin, so I’m going to try to walk you through it relatively clearly, and hopefully this will be helpful. When you look at what’s happening for 2020, you’ve got a couple of big things that are helping give us improving margins. The most notable, of course, is that the Tinder business is becoming a bigger piece of the overall pie, and Tinder has higher margins than our other brands in aggregate and so we get a lift from having a bigger piece of the business be Tinder. I’ll talk about Tinder margins in a second, which was kind of the second part of your question. We’ve also talked previously about giving users a choice on Tinder on Android of credit cards or using their billing system, and given that, we’ve seen some improvement from a margin perspective as users have chosen to pay with credit cards on Tinder. Those two things are helpful to our margins in 2020. On the other side of the equation, we’ve got a number of things, some of which are discretionary and some of which aren’t, that are impacting margins. Most notably, and kind of the simplest one, is legal and the spinoff costs, and I’ll come back to legal. The spinoff costs, if the spinoff goes through, we’re saying we’re going to have $10 million of costs next year related to the spinoff - that would happen in 2020 or not, and then obviously that wouldn’t occur again beyond that. On the legal side, if you look at the trends in legal, our legal costs this year are jumping significantly from last year. In 2018, we had about $15 million of legal fees. This year, we’ve got about $40 million more expected for the year, so close to $55 million, so it’s a significant jump in ’19, and then our numbers for 2020 include additional legal fees probably in the neighborhood of about $15 million or so. The jump is pretty significant from ’18 to ’19, and then incrementally from ’19 to ’20. Now, we don’t view those as discretionary. We are involved in three significant lawsuits and we are pursuing those with top flight lawyers because in one of the cases, Bumble, we think they’ve infringed on our patents and we’re expecting to be compensated for that, so we’ve been pursuing that litigation. On the other two, one related to the FTC and DOJ investigation, we think the claims that have been made in that case are meritless and we are going to defend ourselves against that vigorously, so that is increasing our legal costs in 2020. It started now in late ’19, and it’s going to take place over the course of 2020. The third relates to all the matters on the Tinder employee lawsuits, which again we think is purely a case of sour grapes on the Tinder employees’ behalf, and we are defending ourselves on that lawsuit vigorously with top flight counsel again because we don’t expect to make up the difference when people decide to sell their stock earlier and the stock price was lower, versus now we’re not going to compensate people for having made that decision, and so we’re fighting that lawsuit. I think a lot of those matters are going to resolve themselves in 2020, and so the legal costs that have jumped and are pressuring our margins by probably about two points if you add up the jump in legal costs between, say, ’18 and ’20, that will no longer be the case after we get beyond 2020. So we view those as a temporary lift, a necessary lift, an unfortunate lift, but it’s something that we’ve chosen to pursue to defend ourselves and to pursue the Bumble infringement. Then if you look at other trends in the business, in our non-Tinder brands what we’re seeing is more of a shift to apps, and so we’re paying more App Store fees on the non-Tinder brands. That is a positive trend. We think it gives people a better user experience, but it’s an extra cost that we’re incurring and is a negative on the margin side. Then you get into the two categories of investments that we’re choosing to make that are discretionary but we think are good for the long-term health of the business to help us grow the business long term. The first is, and I mentioned this in my remarks, we’re investing in a number of new bets and we’re watching these new bets very carefully. We believe they have solid traction. We’re looking for indicators of solid traction to continue to make investments in them, but we think to help continue to grow globally at the company, we want to make these bets. If you look at the investments we’re making in OK Cupid international, in our Pairs business in Japan which is growing extremely nicely, in BLK and Chispa here in the U.S. focused on certain demographics, all of those businesses are showing strong traction. We’re very disciplined about our investments into these businesses, but right now the markers that we’re looking for in those businesses are being hit, and so we’re choosing to invest. We’re doing that knowing that we’ve got this headwind from the legal expense, and so the result is flatter margins than we would like in 2019 and 2020, but we’re taking that on and basically saying, despite the fact that we’ve got this non-discretionary legal expense that’s impacting our margin, we’re going to keep investing in the business for the future even if it means short term we don’t have the margin expansion we were hoping for. Once we get through the legal issues, we’ll see that margin expansion actually occur, so we’re making that conscious choice. I think as we go through our planning process for the rest of this year, for 2020, we’re going to scrub all those investments and all those expenses and see what else we can deliver, but right now the guidance that I’ve provided reflects what we think is a reasonable level and a logical level of investments in those new brands. Then we’ve got investments at Tinder, which has obviously been our growth engine. You asked about this directly, but the margins at Tinder are strong, they’ve been expanding. The last time we talked about margins at Tinder, we said they were north of 40%. I think that was close to two years ago, so you can expect that Tinder margins are much stronger now than they were two years ago. Tinder brings those strong margins, but at this point we also think it’s important to continue to make investments in Tinder because we want to get it to grow globally and get to that next level. So as we look at markets like Japan, like India, international markets where we think there is big opportunity for Tinder, we want to make sure we’re making the right level of investment. So again, it’s a conscious decision. We’re going to scrub those investments in Tinder and make sure the investments we’re making in engineering resources, overall product development, tech infrastructure, product localization, trust and safety, moderation, all the things that are important, that need to be made for this continued expansion globally, especially in these Asian markets, that we’re making the appropriate levels of investment. We’ve incorporated into our outlook for next year a strong level of investment in Tinder in all of those areas. Even with that, we’ll see some margin expansion at Tinder next year, and as we come back in early February having scrubbed those numbers, we’ll be able to give you a little more precision around both the investments at Tinder and the investments in some of the new brands. That’s everything we’ve incorporated for next year, and I think it explains the margin trends at Tinder as well as the margin trends at the overall company.
Mark Kelley:
That was all very helpful. Thanks Gary.
Operator:
Our next question today comes from Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. Only a few questions. One, obviously investors are trying to understand the fourth quarter Tinder guide. You did comment about this change that Apple made which was impacting re-sign ups, so maybe if you can elaborate a bit more there, and then just what other information do you have that it’s not due to Facebook Dating? We know you put out information about Canada, but any other information you want to put out there around your thoughts around Facebook Dating. Then secondarily, marketing is kind of at a record low as a percent of revenue. I think this was the second lowest quarter as a percent of revenue in the last three years. Do you need to invest more in marketing, and just maybe elaborate there. Thanks.
Mandy Ginsburg:
Okay, let me take the Facebook one first, and Gary can chime in on the other questions. When Facebook launched Dating, we told you all on this call that we did not think it would impact our business, and that is turning out to be true. Facebook rolled out in the U.S. and we’ve seen zero impact in our business, especially at Tinder. Facebook at this point is rolled out in about 20 markets starting last year, and we’ve obviously been studying and watching these markets really closely and we haven’t seen any impact in any of our KPIs across the globe. Then when Facebook launched in Canada about a year ago, we thought this was a great way to get a proxy for the U.S., so we’ve seen that now, those trends for the last year, and we’ve seen no impact in the Canadian market, so we’re feeling good from a competitive aspect at this point but we’ll continue to watch. Keep in mind, during this past year when Facebook launched in all these markets, this is also when Tinder’s growth has been accelerating globally. The only other thing that I wanted to mention is the Q4 Tinder net add expectation is not affected by Facebook at all. We see, as Gary had mentioned, that this is an increased level of terminations by iOS related to the changes at Apple, but we’re not seeing this effect on Android nor on new subscribers, so to date we still see very--no impact, and we’ll continue to keep you all updated, but we do feel good from a competitive standpoint.
Gary Swidler:
Yes, I think that’s all right. It’s important to understand that what we’re seeing in terms of Tinder subs for Q4 is basically what we’ve been expecting the entire year. We had a product plan at Tinder which we’ve been executing on. We talked about 1.6 million net adds for the full year or thereabouts, and we’re on track to deliver something very close to that. There is a little bit of a pull forward of terminations, as Mandy said, on iOS at Tinder and some of our other brands from the changes that Apple made, so that is affecting the sub number a little bit in Q4, but that is really, I think, the only thing that’s going on that was not expected by us all along in this year as we planned Tinder sub additions. That’s the one item, but again I think it’s mostly a pull forward probably into a little bit in Q4, probably lingers into Q1, and then I think you’ll see that effect on the Tinder sub numbers and the overall sub numbers dissipate a little bit. As it relates to the Tinder sub outlook, that’s kind of the pieces of it. It’s certainly not related to Facebook or competition in any way. I think if you look at the overall fourth quarter outlook that we provided, there’s really two things that are, I think, affecting where we thought we’d be back in August versus where we are now. I think the first is FX, which I called out in my remarks. That’s probably on the order of $6 million incremental negative versus where it was three months ago related to Brexit and the euro and the pound against the dollar. That’s one piece of it, and there’s probably some small impact from the Apple changes that we see in Q4 as well. I think that’s kind of the top line impact. Obviously that flows down to the bottom line as well, so that’s a piece of it, and then we have incremental legal expenses. I call out $25 million of incremental in Q4. Probably half of that, $12 million, $13 million relates to legal. It’s just a phase we’re in right now in these various matters with FTC and DOJ as well as the Tinder employee and some of the other matters we have, related to discovery and ongoing preparation, which we’re taking all very seriously, and so we’re incurring those expenses and they will affect our fourth quarter. I think those are the three moving pieces related to the fourth quarter versus where we had previously expected. I think your second question related to marketing spend. When you look at our marketing spend, really what we’re doing is we’re shifting marketing spend from some of the brands that are more mature and showing less growth trajectory into the newer bets and brands that are showing more potential for growth. That has been going on all year. It’s continuing into Q4 and it’s continuing into 2020, so that’s a theme that you’re going continue to hear about. When you look at that, it’s the brands you would expect - it’s OK Cupid in these international markets, in India, in other new markets where we think we have a chance to expand OK Cupid. It’s related to the BLK and Chispa brands. It’s related to Hinge. It’s related to Pairs, which has shown great traction in Japan both in its core business as well now we’re expanding into the new Pairs Engage product. So that’s where the marketing spend is going. If you look at kind of the Q4 trajectory, I don’t think marketing spend is going to be up significantly, I just think it’s a shift. There’s more dollars going into the brands that are showing growth and there is more discipline around the spend, and that is something that we’ve been talking about for, I think, a long time. We have a very robust analytical framework to try to figure out where we should be spending the dollars and where we shouldn’t, and we’re continuing to fine tune that; but the themes around investing or increasing marketing spend in the brands with momentum will continue to be a theme and we’ll continue to try to pare back as much as we can in the brands with less momentum. To the extent we can do product work or other things to drive back momentum in some of the other brands, which we’ve done for example in OK Cupid in the U.S., we will then spend more marketing dollars in those brands to supplement the organic growth that they’re seeing. It’s not a decision that we make and that’s static. As we see performance in these brands, we will adjust our spend levels in each of them and that’s the constant job that we’re doing, to try to make sure we’re allocating our overall marketing spend as efficiently and effectively as we possibly can.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ross Sandler of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Hey Gary, just one on the 2020 revenue outlook. Tinder obviously continues to perform very strongly right now, and from your comments, into the future. What level of Tinder PMC net adds are baked into the 2020 guidance? How do we bridge the 49% growth you’re seeing right now with this mid to high teens revenue guidance as that becomes a bigger part of the business, and are you expecting the decel to come from Tinder or some of the other brands? Any color there would be helpful, thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Okay, sure. If you look at what we’re expecting for next year, I think that Tinder will probably add, in terms of order of magnitude, a similar amount of revenue in 2020 over 2019 that it’s adding dollars-wise, 2019 over 2018. We think that will be very similar, but obviously since it’s off a bigger base, the growth rate will be lower in 2020 for Tinder than it is in 2019. That’s just math. That’s a piece of it, and then on the other side of the equation, we are increasingly confident that the rest of the brands in aggregate are going to start to deliver some growth for us on revenue in 2020, so I think it will be modest at first but we believe we are approaching the point where the other brands are going to contribute, and so if they add a little bit of growth, that is what gets us into that mid to high teens growth rate overall for the company. That’s kind of the mix - still very strong growth at Tinder, but a lower overall growth rate off the bigger base, and a little bit of contribution from the other brands. I think that that is really the dynamics around our growth outlook on the top line for next year. In terms of the Tinder subs for next year, we haven’t really provided yet an outlook on that, and there’s a few reasons for that. I think as we’ve said many times, and I guess I’ll say it one more time here, we don’t focus solely on Tinder subscriber net adds. We focus on driving Tinder revenue, which I just told you what we think we can do next year in that regard, and we get it through a mix of ARPU improvement and subscriber growth. As we start to move more internationally at Tinder, the typical western model subscription which is something that we’re very good at and has driven our business to this point, may not be right in every market and we may shift the way we approach Tinder monetization more towards a-la-carte or consumables than towards a subscription model. That’s something we’re evaluating as Tinder grows globally, and so that is something that we’re focused on. Obviously we understand we need to deliver a healthy number of Tinder net adds. We think we’ve incorporated a healthy level into our underlying assumption for next year, but as we continue to refine our product road map for next year, we’re maintaining the flexibility to make adjustments between subscription and a-la-carte as we think through the global dynamics in the Tinder business. That is kind of where we are at this moment. As I said, we will have more detail around exactly how we’re going to approach it, product cadence and everything else, as we get a little further I think we’ve done this a few times now, so the product cadence has become, I think, a little bit more clear. If you look at 2019, we had a big revenue feature in Q2, another in Q3 related to the Gold homepage redesign on iOS and Android, so I think as we preliminarily think about it, we’re thinking about some cadence that’s kind of similar to that next year, but again that’s something we’re still sorting through and we’ll have more guidance on exactly when the features will be rolled out. But suffice to say, as we had in 2019 a very robust product road map for Tinder focused on revenue and engagement features, Tinder has rolled out a lot of different things very consistently in 2019, we’re going to do the same thing in 2020 and our base case assumptions for next year assume that we’ll roll out a lot of different things. Some will be more successful, some will be less successful. Our outlook doesn’t assume any massive home runs, but our goal always is to outperform those expectations and deliver features that really move the needle. I’m sure some will and some won’t, and some will move the needle more than we hope, but how that all breaks out and when and which ones, I think remains to be determined. The Tinder team is hard at work trying to make sure that we deliver all of those features next year, and I’m sure they will. Anything else, Ross?
Ross Sandler:
No, that’s it.
Gary Swidler:
Okay, thank you very much. Next question, please?
Operator:
Yes, sir. Our next question comes from Brent Thill of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Good morning. Ninety-five thousand non-Tinder sub adds in 3Q, that’s the best we’ve seen in a while. Can you just talk through the specific brands that drove that strength, and given there was strength there, why didn’t it have a bigger impact on the top line?
Gary Swidler:
Sure, okay. Well, thanks for pointing out certainly one of the brighter spots in our earnings report, I think, from this quarter. We believe that the non-Tinder brands really did turn the corner in Q3, and that’s why we have confidence that those brands are going to grow in aggregate in Q4 and into 2020. You pointed out the 95,000 sequential additions, which is notable, as you say, and I think the important thing to understand is we’re getting contributions to that number from a broad number of brands. Hinge is clearly a big contributor, OK Cupid is a big contributor, the new bets in BLK and Chispa are contributing, our Meetic business is contributing, so it’s a number of brands within the non-Tinder group that are really contributing. Our goal is to keep widening that out, and I think we’re on track to do that. The reason that you don’t see as much revenue flow through as you might expect, given those subscriber trends, is a lot of those brands are still very early in their monetization trajectory. We’ve talked about this before a little bit related to Hinge, which we think there’s a lot to go in terms of monetization. It’s not something we’ve turned our attention to, but we are now starting to turn our attention to it, so that is on the plans for 2020. I think that as Hinge continues to grow users, it will grow subscribers as it’s been doing. As we adjust monetization, it will start to contribute much more to the overall revenue pie at the company, and the same is true for some of the other brands as well. Those brands are just in different phases of their development, and as I said earlier, when we’re investing--when I explained why we’re investing in these brands, we see the clear user growth, the product momentum, and now we need to turn our attention to monetization, to subscriber and revenue growth. That’s what naturally comes next. You’ve got to take this all one step at a time, and we have a playbook that we’re following for these brands. We’re going to bring that playbook next to Hinge in a very significant way, and we have a lot of confidence that we’ll be able to do what we need to do to drive monetization at those brands.
Brent Thill:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question today comes from Eric Sheridan at UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks so much for taking the question. Maybe going back to the commentary from Mandy on the video side and the rollout of the product that drove engagement in the quarter, can you put a finer point on some of the learnings there in terms of return you think you got on the spend around that product, how global could become in terms of being rolled out, and are there other products like that or additional investments you want to make not only within Tinder but maybe across a broader portfolio of brands and GOs as you think about what it might do for engagement maybe in the long term? Thanks so much.
Mandy Ginsburg:
Okay great, thanks Eric. The Swipe Night content that we developed was really focused on that Gen Z audience and we saw it really resonated with that particular audience. In addition, it’s kind of an interesting way to capture a user’s personality and get people to engage an strike up conversations right on the app, and so we think that, one, as I’ve mentioned, we saw increased engagement, we saw increased communication, we saw increased conversations, we saw an increase in women engagement, so all of these things are really healthy and good for the ecosystem. Then outside of what’s happening on the app, we just saw a tremendous amount of buzz, which we think will continue to keep Tinder in the dialogue and make it fresh and young and relevant, and really addresses this audience that--you know, it needs to make sure that Tinder stays relevant in this community. We also think that the short interactive miniseries, it could work in international markets, so we’re excited to see what happens when we launch the series outside the U.S., which we’re planning on doing next year, so more to come on that. But given what we saw in the U.S., we think that this is definitely going to be relevant outside of the U.S. Then taking a step back and looking at video and video content across our other products, we are exploring video content as engagement drivers in a variety of different ways on our other platforms. I talked a little bit about live streaming today. What I like about the live streaming test is that users will have the ability not just to engage with the broadcasters but also to talk to other daters as well, so you can imagine where a broadcaster might be talking about music or recipes, people can actually comment not just to the broadcaster but to each other, so we think that that content could create engagement and more of a community. So, look - it’s a little bit early on some of these video initiatives, but at the end of the day we want to make sure that people have a reason to keep coming back and have a reason to strike up conversations, because ultimately that will drive success. As we roll these out, we’ll be letting you know how that’s going. Okay, next question?
Operator:
Yes ma’am. Our next question comes from Nick Jones at Citi. Please go ahead.
Nick Jones:
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. As you invest in some of the newer brands and in maybe more conservative regions, like APAC and EMEA, are there any differences in the funnel, in the perception trends? I guess the separate perception of using online dating and then the perception of using it and then into paying, ultimately does the funnel look the same in these newer markets or newer regions that are more conservative than it does in the U.S., and can your marketing machine operate the same way there as it does in the U.S.?
Mandy Ginsburg:
Okay, let me take that one. If you think about more developed markets like the U.S. and Western Europe, we see about half the addressable market, half the singles have tried a dating app, and then in the regions that you mentioned, we see that percentage much less. There is higher stigma, so that’s part of the reason, and there is lower category usage, but that is changing and we see that changing pretty rapidly. If you think about that addressable market, it’s huge. These are young populations that high mobile internet--they have high mobile usage and high internet usage, and they are starting to date and their parents are less involved, or becoming less involved in their dating behaviors and their choices for partners. We think that this social change that’s happening across this region is a big tailwind for us in the category and the next three to five years, we’re going to see that shift accelerating. One of the reasons that we invested in Harmonica was for that reason. Harmonica is just one example where we see that there’s this need for a young Muslim demo; in fact, the entrepreneurs that started Harmonica started it because their friends and family members felt a lot of pressure to have an arranged marriage and they didn’t feel comfortable with arranged marriage, so they thought this was a great option for serious minded Muslims, which is a huge addressable market across EMEA and APAC. You asked about different penetration rates. There are definitely markets where monetization is higher than North America and Western Europe. Japan is one of these examples, so high ARPU but low penetration because there’s still a lot of stigma, and that’s changing. Then there are also markets where there is lower levels of monetization but huge TAM, and so we think in both these cases there is growth opportunity for us and we want to capitalize on both of these, so we’re pretty bullish. Obviously in these markets, we said recently that in five years, 25% of our revenue would come from these regions, from APAC, and when we announced that, we were about 12% and now couple quarters later we’re about 15%, so we’re definitely marching along that path and we continue to see opportunity there.
Nick Jones:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Today’s final question comes from Benjamin Black of Evercore. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Thanks for the question, guys. I was wondering if you could perhaps comment on the trajectory of cost of revenue as we look to fiscal 2020 when you consider the mix shift to Tinder and Hinge perhaps offset by the Android app fee bypass. Separately, I’m wondering if you could perhaps comment on the Android subscriber trends post the Gold redesign. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
So just taking the last part of your question first, on the Android sub trends, we delivered 437,000 sequential adds at Tinder in Q3. We had been expecting just above 400,000, so we actually are very pleased with the way the quarter went in general for Tinder as well as specifically the impact of the redesign on Android, because I think the number speaks for itself - we exceeded the expectations that we had set out. We feel very good that that went better than planned and are very pleased overall with the Q3 performance of subscribers at Tinder. In terms of the cost of revenue, there are two or three items that I want to call out. On the positive side, we’re getting benefit from more and more users at Tinder on Android paying by credit cards. As we’ve said before, we think providing users a choice makes sense. Obviously the users see benefit in that because the take rates on the credit card payment method are strong at Tinder, so that is giving us benefit in terms of cost of revenue. In terms of other things that are going on, though, that may make that benefit less visible as you read our reports, there’s two things really going on, one which I alluded to in the answer to the first question on the call. Tinder is spending more on tech infrastructure as it expands more globally, to serve that more global customer base, so that is appearing also in cost of revenue and is somewhat of an offset to the benefit we’re getting from the Android credit card, so that’s one piece of it. The other thing, which I alluded to as well in that question earlier in the call, related to other brands besides Tinder moving more of their user base to apps, so we’re seeing a higher percentage of revenue being paid to app stores as a result of more of our other users coming on and subscribing through the App Store. Those are the kinds of puts and takes inside the cost of revenue line, and that’s why it had been increasing pretty significantly over the last eight quarters, or maybe even longer. It has kind of stabilized at that point because there are pluses and minuses, or benefits and offsets going on within that line, and I think that’s an important trend overall to understand in the business.
Benjamin Black:
Great, thanks.
Gary Swidler:
I think we have to leave it there. I think we’re basically out of time. We appreciate everybody joining. Obviously lots of moving pieces and we tried to take you through it all as clearly as we could, but we feel great about the quarter, we feel great about the momentum that the business is showing. We are in great shape as we turn the corner from ’19 into ’20, and we look forward to talking to you all on our February call. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. Today’s conference has now concluded and we thank you all for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Match Group’s Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thanks, operator. Today’s call will be led by CEO, Mandy Ginsberg; and CFO, Gary Swidler. They will review the second quarter Investor presentation that is available on our website and then answer questions. Before we start, I’d like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Over to you, Mandy.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our Q2 2019 call. Our second quarter results speak for themselves. Our growth accelerated and our momentum enables us to increase our full-year outlook while investing in the future. I’m going to leave the financial details for Gary to cover; I’ll cover a number of big picture strategic items as well as product initiatives across our businesses. I’m thrilled to say that our businesses are executing very well on their strategies and we’re pushing into a number of exciting new areas and new geographies. Before I jump in, I want to mention a research study called Disintermediating your friends by Prof. Michael Rosenfeld at Stanford. You can easily find the draft form of a study online. It gave a sense of the macro impact the dating category is having on relationships and U.S. society. Now, for those of us, who work in the industry or if you’re a 22-year-old and half your friends met their significant others on dating app. What I’m about to tell you won’t be a surprise. But for a lot of people, the findings of this research are eye-opening. The study details how coupled meet in the U.S. and reinforces many of the trends that we’re seeing today. The research found the meeting online is now by far the most common way for couples to meet. Today, nearly 40% of relationships start online. There’s been a massive acceleration in this trend over the last 10 years due to the rise of smartphone and mobile dating apps like Tinder. Meanwhile, meeting offline at bars, parties or through friends or family has declined significantly. And what’s happening is people meet online? They’re meeting people outside their social circles. The study found that for couples, who met online, nearly 90% met people, who were complete strangers. They were not connected through any friends or family. For me personally, the most important thing to note is that the study found the relationship quality among couples who met online was no different than people who met through existing networks and more traditional channels. We’ve been talking about this trend for a while and this study reinforces what we’ve seen in western markets. We firmly believe this trend has poised to sweep Asian and Middle Eastern markets also, younger people in these geographies are now opting to pick their own partners, and our business will continue to benefit from these societal tailwinds. We can bring our longstanding capabilities in dating to these markets. And we know that we have to do this in a way that reflects evolving technology and online behavior, and most importantly being cognizant of regional and cultural differences. This is why we’ve been increasing our focus on Asia, which if you recall from last quarter, represents roughly half of our total addressable market. Let’s turn to Slide 3. On this slide, you will see it and we’re taking concrete steps to execute on our global growth strategy. I’ll cover how we’re building and investing in new brands and extending our existing brands. Four years after requiring Pairs, it’s now become the market leader in Japan. The Pairs team has accelerated growth and growing steadily as category stigma rose. In fact, growth at both Pairs and Tinder are significantly outpacing the competition in Japan. We have combined our unrivaled product marketing and monetization expertise with our local teams’ extensive knowledge of this market. The senior management team and I just returned from a week in Japan. We were struck by the country’s aging population and low marriage and birth rates, which makes dating and relationship products critical. Less than 20% of Japanese singles are open to the category and we think these numbers will go up, especially as brand and category awareness increase. Pairs has a lot of additional runway and we hope it can have a meaningful impact on the society. Given the strength of our local team plus the growth opportunity we see in Japan, we are extending the Pairs franchise by launching a new digital product called Pairs Engage. This new product will leverage technology to serve the local matrimony market than it’s historically been conducted offline and physical stores. We believe we can offer a more efficient and less expensive service geared to those who are highly motivated and want to get married within a year. Most people on this call are in the U.S. and we don’t really have a comparable matrimony market here. In Japan, however, we estimate the matrimony market is already a $0.5 billion and we believe our new product and capture share of that market. A move like this could disrupt more traditional matrimonial players. This is one more way that Pairs team can provide real value for Japanese singles. Moving to the right side of the slide, we bought out existing investors and made a majority investment in a small app called Harmonica. Harmonica was developed by a team of entrepreneurs based in Cairo, Egypt servicing that market. They saw an opportunity to leverage technology to enhance the match-making process. In fact, the CEO was influenced by watching his friends and his family, go through the traditional arranged marriage process. He wanted to create a product for a young and modern audience that still respects local traditions and cultural norms. Young people want to meet others with similar backgrounds and values. The shift is now they want to choose their partner versus having their partners chosen for them. Essentially, the CEO created an app that someone like his sister could use. It’s clear that young single Muslim audience is a massive in growing market. There are 1.8 billion Muslims in the world. This is 24% of the world’s population is expected to grow by more than 70% in the next three decades. And today, dating products don’t adequately address their needs. And it’s important to work closely with entrepreneurs and a local team that truly understands the challenges singles in these regions are facing. Harmonica gives us a great base to build on and it enables us to better serve to 33 countries throughout Asia and Middle East that have large Muslim populations. We brought on all 12 Harmonica employees and plan to leverage our resources and our knowledge to help the team in Cairo further develop their product and scale their business. So, the business is small today. This local approach is similar to what we did in Japan with tremendous results. There is no denying the opportunity in front of us across Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. We’re moving quickly to ensure that we capitalize on this opportunity as the market evolves. Let’s turn to Slide 4, it talks about Tinder. We rolled out a number of monetization features at Tinder, the last few years. As we mentioned on the past few calls, a big priority for us in 2019 was to optimize our existing features to drive revenue growth. Tinder’s performance this year highlights just how impactful these sometimes imperceptible changes can be on a platform of Tinder scale. These changes fall into three main categories; first, improving the recommendation engine to drive more engagement for all of our users; second, bringing more sophistication to our approach on PayWalls and pricing. And third, improving where, when and how we merchandise Tinder goals. As a result of these changes that we’ve been able to increase subscriber additions and accelerate revenue growth beyond our prior expectations. We highlight features our users find valuable and by doing this, more users choose the more feature rich and high priced Tinder Gold subscription package. Optimizations at Tinder could be a never ending process just like at our brands that have been around for more than 20 years. I’m confidence we’ll continue to improve the Tinder platform to drive continued growth. In addition to all the wins we’ve achieved on the product optimization front, we’ve also introduced a few new consumer facing features let me go into. Some of these features are unique to Tinder, because unlike any product in the category, Tinder has a global audience. First, let’s discuss Tinder Lite. For some members of our global audience, the cost and speed of data is a big concern. Tinder Lite will run faster, consume less battery and reduce network usage by about 20% lowering data costs for users. It also is a drastically smaller app to download in the first place, which again, reduces data costs for our users. We’ve rolled it out on Android at Vietnam and we’ll be rolling it out across Southeast Asia over the coming quarters. In addition to Tinder Lite, we introduced a credit card payment option on the android app at Tinder in Q2. Most of our other brands as well as our competitors offer users the option to use credit card payments on android and now Tinder is doing so well. To roll this out, we first had to build a web-based payment infrastructure to be able to accept credit card payments. We did the work, because we believe it’s important to provide users with choice of payment options. Let’s move to the third image on the right. We also launched Tinder Traveler Alert for our global LGBTQ users. We are by far the largest app to launch this type of warning to protect users in nearly 70 countries that still have discriminatory laws criminalizing people, who are LGBTQ. Whether you live in one of these countries or are using Tinder while you travel, this one of the many steps that we’re taking to protect our users around the world. It’s been a busy quarter at Tinder. We’ve also launched two new monetization features. Super Boost is a feature we think has particular appeal to a member, who is a bit less price sensitive and is willing to pay to increase his or her activity on Tinder. Read Receipts is another a la carte feature we introduced. We knew users would find this feature valuable based on learnings from our other apps. These a la carte features will help drive ARPU and revenue. Before I wrap up the Tinder section, I want to emphasize one point. We’ve talked a lot about Tinder monetization, but delivering a fun, free and effective base experience for all users on Tinder remains critically important and it’s what fuels, stickiness and morality. We expect to continue to drive growth over the long run by both innovating the free fun experience and introducing new features that provide an enhanced experience for those willing to pay for them. Tinder demonstrating the ability to deliver what young singles want. The team is hard at work evolving the product to ensure it remains the unparalleled choice for this global audience and digital natives. On Slide 5, we highlight OkCupid, which is undergone wider turnaround over the last 24 months. After a product revamp in late 2017, OkCupid has executed successful marketing campaigns and monetization efforts throughout 2018 and into this year. This is led to OkCupid for reinvigorating revenue growth in 2018 and they’re on track to do it again, this year. The OkCupid team is now diligently exporting the brand to market outside the U.S. targeting geographies, where they have seen some early organic traction. Their first foray with India in late 2018, where they localized parts of the product and deployed a modest amount of marketing dollars. This increased focus in India led OkCupid as quickly surpassing both local and global players, who are spending significantly more in marketing. Given OkCupid’s momentum, we’re ramping, marketing spend and launching OkCupid first ever brand campaign in India. The campaign is focused on young Indians, who want to take charge of their lives, including finding their future partner. Take a look at the image on the far right. The tagline, Find My Kind is juxtaposed against the arranged marriage newspaper ads, which feature religion, family background and appearance. OkCupid is focused on Match people beyond just appearance and family background and emphasizes what truly matters. Based consumer testing, we think this magic message is going to really resonate. The campaign goes live this week. In addition to OkCupid’s efforts in India, we see an opportunity in other global markets. We believe the team can replicate this playbook to expand into additional international markets in the coming quarters. Let’s turn to Slide 6. Hinge continues to have excellent momentum with strong user growth in the U.S. and in key international markets. Global downloads in the second quarter increased more than three times year-over-year. Hinge is quickly becoming one of the top dating apps in the U.S. and the UK with strong popularity among younger, more serious daters. They value Hinge’s in-depth, yet modern product experience. We know that the Hinge users are looking for serious relationships and to ultimately get off dating apps. That’s why Hinge’s new tagline Designed to be Deleted is resonating with consumers. This quarter Hinge is launching a big marketing campaign, which we expect to drive accelerated user growth. Marketing creative that supports the tagline designed to be deleted and emphasizes higher relationship intent will be seen in digital channels and offline later this month. The marketing campaign follows organic press coverage that Hinge received thanks to the presidential candidate Mayor Pete Buttigieg who met his husband on Hinge. This is increased national attention on the brand and provided more of both to the already strong growth we’ve seen. Moving to the right of the slide, the match brand continues to evolve its product and improve customer satisfaction. It’s on a relentless mission to provide a premium experience both in price and service for relationship minded singles in their 30s and 40s. in the second quarter, Match launched a distinctive new feature called AskMatch, where subscriber could act as a live personal dating coach. We know that for singles looking for relationship, some of the ups and downs of dating come after the match with someone and take things offline. This is the first time, we’re aware of a dating app combined technology with a platform of experts to help users improve outcomes. Feedback from people, who have used the feature has been great. After a session with one of our coaches, the recommend natural friends’ rate goes up by more than 50%. the efficacy of these short that really impactful sessions make us optimistic about scaling the service effectively and differentiating Match. The reduced marketing and math again, in Q2, but we are ramping up brand spend in Q3 to support a fun and edgy new campaign. The new ads feature accessed rebel Wilson and they went live last week. In the ads, rebel hosts a podcast and risks on the trials and tribulations of dating and who knows better how to address the needs of people looking for a serious relationship than Match. This is a great time to build buzz of Match given the past few quarters, we’ve made real strides in the product experience. We believe that it was a truly revamp product, improve monetization and a clear differentiator in askMatch. The brand is positioned well for the long run. To wrap things up, we had a stellar quarter. Growth is accelerating; we’re continuing to connect more and more people in these sparkly to friendships, great days, relationships, marriages, and even families. all the time, we here, if it weren’t for your app, I wouldn’t have met my group of friends in college through Tinder or I never would’ve met my husband, my wife, my girlfriend, my mom wouldn’t have met my stepdad and one of my favorites. I wouldn’t have a house full of kids if I didn’t meet my spouse through your app. These are the stories that we hear every day, whether it’s to meet new people when you move to a new city after college or you want to find your soul mate, and these stories motivate us to develop products that create these meaningful human connections for our users. We’re investing heavily for the future to further distance ourselves from the competition, both here in the U.S. and globally. Finding your person through an app has definitely become more common than even 10 years ago. That said, we think it’s going to become even more mainstream and it’s common for example, as going online to book travel. If I’m right, then we would expect to have many more quarters like this ahead of us and even more importantly, many more relationships to touts. With that, I’ll turn it over to Gary to discuss Q2 financial performance and our outlook.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Mandy. As Mandy said, we had a terrific quarter with strong growth at Tinder, solid progress on many of our strategic and product initiatives, and an improved outlook for the year. Let’s get right into the specifics from the quarter, then I’ll update on our financial outlook. On Slide 8, you can see that Tinder direct revenue grew 46% year-over-year in Q2, an acceleration from 38% in Q1 as the cumulative effects of PayWall and pricing changes, various product optimizations and the better gold merchandising on iOS had a real impact. We’ve been saying for some time now that 2019 would be about a series of product initiatives and optimizations on the Tinder platform, which would drive strong results. Tinder’s performance in the first half of 2019 certainly bears that out. in Q2, Tinder subscribers grew 39% year-over-year to just over 5.2 million. Tinder added nearly 1.5 million subscribers year-over-year and 503,000 subscribers sequentially, second best in Tinder’s history. the only quarter, where Tinder had seen a higher level of subscriber additions was right after we first introduced Tinder Gold in late 2017. tinder’s ARPU was up 6% year-over-year as reported, but on an FX neutral basis was up about 10%. gold subscribers as a percent of the total continued to decline and now exceed 70% of the total subscribers at Tinder. On Slide 9, you can see that average subscribers across the company’s brands reached over 9 million in Q2, up 18% year-over-year. Tinder drove our overall subscriber growth again, this quarter with pairs also contributing nicely. hinge’s user growth is starting to generate subscriber growth even though monetization hasn’t yet been a real focus for us at Hinge. For the first time in our history, the number of international subscribers exceeded North American subscribers. We expect this trend to continue as our international growth efforts, both at Tinder and elsewhere continue to gain steam. As we’ve talked about before, about two thirds of our addressable market lives outside Western markets and we expect the steps we’re taking to address that massive opportunity will continue to manifest in our subscriber numbers. We continue to spend down on marketing at the match brand in Q2, which impacted its subscribers. Marketing spend at match was at its lowest level and more than five years down double digits year-over-year and the quarter. That said, as Mandy talked about, the product refinements at Match continue to gain traction and we’ve launched a new marketing campaign in Q3 to begin to get the Match story back out. As reported, ARPU for the company was up $0.01 year-over-year to $0.58. It was up 4% in North America and up 1% internationally. On an FX neutral basis, international ARPU was up 7% and total company ARPU was up 5% year-over-year to $0.60. Flipping to Slide 10, you can see the company’s total revenue growth was 18% year-over-year, reaching $498 million of total revenue for the quarter. Total revenue growth would have been 22% without the impact of FX for total revenue of $514 million on a constant currency basis. North America grew direct revenue, 13% driven by 9% subscriber growth and 4% ARPU growth, while international direct revenue increased 27% driven by 27% growth in subscribers and a 1% ARPU increase. International subscriber growth was particularly strong, driven by primarily by Tinder, pairs and better meeting performance. Indirect revenue mostly from ad sales, decreased close to $3 million due to continued declines in ad impressions, coupled with the impact of changes to the terms of our relationship with fan. We expect indirect revenue growth to improve over the coming quarters. Operating income grew 15% to $173 million. EBITDA grew 16% to $204 million. The growth was driven by the higher revenues and lower overall marketing spend as a percent of revenue, partly offset by higher in-app fees, $9 million of higher legal regulatory and compliance costs and in the case of operating income, higher stock-based compensation expense of $5 million. Stock-based comp expense in the quarter was $22 million, primarily due to the acceleration of certain awards and the granting of new awards, particularly at Tinder. Given the higher than expected level in Q2, we now expect $80 million to $90 million of SBC expense for the full year. Marketing spend declined as a percent of revenue again, this quarter. tinder’s marketing efforts particularly in several western European countries are going very well. Our cash flow generation remains excellent and our balance sheet remains very healthy. In the quarter, we spent $84 million of cash to buy back stock and to net settle employee Equity Awards. Even with this, we ended with $266 million of cash on hand. Our 12-month trailing leverage ended Q2 at 2.3 times on a gross basis and 1.9 times on a net basis. Year-to-date, we have spent a total of $215 million of cash and buy backs, and withholding taxes related to net settling of Equity Awards. On Slide 11, we have our latest financial outlook. for Q3 2019, we expect total revenue of $535 million to $545 million and $200 million to $205 million of EBITDA representing year-over-year growth rates in the low-20’s percent range on both metrics. Our Q3 EBITDA reflects significant incremental marketing spend compared to Q2 2019 as we simultaneously ramp campaigns at a number of brands including hinge, match and OkCupid. As Mandy noted, hinge is expanding its Designed to be Deleted’ campaign. match recently launched a new campaign featuring Rebel Wilson; and OkCupid is undertaking its first brand campaign in India, all in Q3. We also expect to begin marketing at harmonica, Pairs engage and in other international markets that OkCupid and Q3, and we’ll invest further at Tinder globally. We expect a sequential growth in marketing spend to be north of 20%. given our strong performance in the first half of the year, we now expect full year 2019 revenue growth to be in the high teens up from our prior expectations of mid teens. This implies accelerated growth rates in the back half of 2019 compared to the front half, which is consistent with what we’ve been anticipating. We’re also refining our expected EBITDA range to $770 million to $800 million for the full year given improved confidence in our full-year performance. As I mentioned on the last call, we’re planning a number of discretionary long-term oriented investments in the back half of this year to reinvest some of the outperformance in the business. We’re very pleased to have the financial flexibility to make these investments, which we believe will improve the company’s long-term growth outlook. Where we fall in the EBITDA range will depend significantly on the level of discretionary investments we choose to make in the last two quarters of the year. On the back of record performance, we’re planting seeds for future growth and to further capture at the large market opportunity in front of us. Many of these investments are intended to further our growth efforts in Asia, so let me give some color on a few of them. You heard from Mandy about our investing in a harmonica app and bringing on the team to better serve the large Muslim demographic globally. We plan to invest several million dollars this year to build out the team, further develop the app and market it in several markets. This has not been incorporated in our outlook previously. In addition, Mandy mentioned the new Pairs Engage product, which has designed to be a digital matrimony product serving the large marriage focused market in Japan. We’re optimistic about the prospects for this newly created product and are investing further in it following its recent introduction to the market. Additionally, we’ve talked several times about the organic momentum that OkCupid has achieved in India. We’re increasing our investment in OkCupid in that market and in several other markets in Asia, in the Middle East, where we believe the brand can achieve similar traction. Aside from these key initiatives, we’re also investing even more heavily in Tinder product and marketing to drive product awareness, especially in a number of global markets, where we see meaningful longer-term opportunity including in Southeast Asia. And we’re considering investing additional marketing dollars in a number of our newer bets in the second half of the year, including Chispa, BLK, and Ship. last and most important, we’re investing in our employees globally, including enhanced 401(k) matching to help employees save more for retirement. Our parent company, IAC has championed these efforts and we were excited to roll these benefits out recently. Aside from our growth oriented investments, we’re incurring higher legal regulatory and compliance costs globally. As an example, France recently passed a new 3% digital services tax, which primarily impacts our Meetic and Tinder businesses and is retroactive to January 1 of this year. We expect this to impact us by $3 million in 2019 with three quarters of it taken in Q3. other countries are also considering following Francis lead. It is clear that we – like many tech companies are operating in an environment with higher scrutiny around our activities and we’re investing to make sure we stay ahead of this trend, especially in the areas that protect our users’ data privacy and safety. With the success of tinder’s various product initiatives for the full-year 2019, we now expect subscriber additions at Tinder to be approximately 1.6 million, well above our previous expectation of greater than one million. The rollout of better gold merchandising on iOS created upward momentum in subscriber additions in Q2, and we expect the lift in Q3 from the rollout of this initiative on android. for Q3, we expect more than 400,000 average subscriber additions at Tinder quarter-over-quarter. We’re thrilled to have delivered a solid first half and a strong outlook for the full year. Our Tinder business continues to grow meaningfully around the world and we’re investing to supplement that growth. We’re taking steps across the portfolio to capture the large opportunity in Asia and we’re executing on our numerous strategic and product objectives. I am competent all of this puts us in a terrific position to continue to deliver a solid financial performance for our shareholders. With that, I’ll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today will come from Nat Schindler of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Nat Schindler:
Great quarter, guys. Thank you very much for taking my question. Earlier – when March, we noticed a change in the payment flow on your android apps on everything other than Tinder gold. We then saw on a third-party dataset that tracks Google play store revenue that – revenue on Google Play Store collapse, which obviously didn’t happen given how well you did in the quarter. The obvious conclusion here is that you’re skipping the play Store and you’re getting payments directly, but that didn’t seem to show up in your cost of goods. Is there something we’re missing here?
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Thanks, Nat for your question and for the compliments on the quarter. So, you’re right, I know there’s a big topic. So, let me try to step people through this a little bit. you’re right that in April, we introduced an option on Tinder, on Android, to offer use a choice whether to use Google pay or credit cards. As Mandy mentioned in her mark, it’s something that we’ve been planning for. It’s something that we have on many of our other brands. And so it’s not particularly new, but it was new to Tinder. We had to do some work to get there and we accomplish that and then we’re able to roll it out. This is really something that is for new transactions. And so the benefits of this will sort of build overtime. It’s a relatively small amount of benefit in Q2, but it’ll be larger in Q3 and then as we move to 2020 and beyond, it should increase from there. you can notice it in the cost of goods as you mentioned. If you go back overtime in our cost of goods, you’ll see that that percentage has been increasing relatively significant for many, many quarters. And in this quarter, we had a slight change in that trend and we’ll see as we go forward some impact on that percentage as well. So, I would say, it’s kind of single digits in this quarter of the benefit, but it will be increasing. I think that answers your question.
Nat Schindler:
It does, can I ask just a quick follow-up?
Gary Swidler:
Sure.
Nat Schindler:
Would you expect to see this happen on iOS as well? And what do you think the response will be for Google and Apple?
Gary Swidler:
So, if you look historically, Google has been a more open platform. And as I said, we’ve been offering this option on many of our brands. So, I’m going back at fairly long time. So, this is not new from a Google perspective. apple has tended to be more restrictive. And so we’ll see what happens with Apple. We’d love to offer the same kind of choice on Apple as we do with Google, but it’s not clear to us, if or when that’s actually going to be able to happen.
Nat Schindler:
Great. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Eric Sheridan of UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks so much. Maybe, diving in a little bit in terms of the narrative broadly overseas and what you’re seeing in Asia, and what you’re seeing in the Middle East. I want to understand a little bit of the nuance about how you might be taking different approaches to marketing, positioning brands in those markets. how we should be thinking about ROIs on investments of those markets against the subscriber growth opportunities? So maybe, see if we could go a little bit deeper in the opportunity you see especially in the Middle East and Asia as you called out in the slide? Thanks, guys.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. I’ll take that, Eric. So, if you look at these markets, which are more underpenetrated markets, there’s definitely more secular tailwinds. I mean these are markets, where there’s big population growth and we’re still seeing Internet penetration increasing and mobile usage increasing. and I think one of the most important things to point out is sort of that that stigma is eroding, which we think is going to help really increase usage across the brands. because of these dynamics in the market, it really gives us the opportunity to take a number of our apps into these markets depending on the segment that we’re going after. And we’ve really tried to be holistic and thinking about a market. So, for example, in India, Tinder has been present in India to the largest player in India, but we recently introduced OkCupid, because we felt there was a hole in the market in terms of a more serious minded relationship app. Japan is another market, where there is Tinder; there is pairs, which has seen tremendous growth. and now, we’re offering a third product as of a few weeks ago with Pairs Engage. And then the one we talked about today, which is harmonica, is really around looking at kind of Cross Geo demos, where we can serve the Muslim population. So, we’re excited. We don’t think in these markets, there’s winter takes all and we think by offering different apps for different segments. there’s a real opportunity for growth. And then you asked me about how do we think about marketing? We approached marketing a bit based on brand lifecycle. So, as we launched new products in new markets, we generally tend to spend more money on brand spend and measure awareness. And then overtime, its brand and products become more mature. We tend to start shifting more to performance marketing. We’ve got a really good track record in the past for being smart and prudent. And we need to take some bets as well. And I think that balance of brand and performance marketing has served as well.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks so much.
Operator:
Our next question today will come from Ross Sandler of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Hey, guys. So, Gary, a question on the guidance for back half, so we’re obviously seeing – as you mentioned, the second highest net ads for Tinder, in company history, so tons of momentum, but the guidance implies a little bit of tailing off of the net adds in 3Q and 4Q. So, is that from the new merchandising playbook having less dramatic impact on the android? is it from higher churn or just higher rate of drop off or is that just usual conservatism? Any color there would be helpful. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. So, I think as you know, if you kind of look historically when we roll out new features that are focused more on monetization or we’re focused on optimizations, you do see a particular bump in the quarter, where we roll it out, from a net ads perspective. And so if you’re looking at Q2 at the high number of subs that we added at Tinder, you can see that’s been driven by the iOS optimizations that we did, the merchandising changes that we did. We’ve rolled that out now in Q3 on Android. We talked before I think about how android doesn’t quite have the same impact as iOS. when you roll out something new like this, but we’re seeing in our guidance for Q3 on net ads that there is still a nice lift from kind of normal levels in Q3 that we’re expecting when we’re guiding to north of 400. So, you can see the impacts there of those changes in Qs two and three. At the moment, we don’t have a plan to do something that we think would have this kind of impact in Q4. So that’s why we’re expecting a smaller number of net ads in Q4 than we’ve seen in the first three quarters of the year. And so I think you’re right, your math is, we’ve got it to 1.06 million for the year if you add up the quarters, choose one, two and the guidance for three, you end up with a smaller number in Q4. however, it’s also important to note that we’ve rolled out some new al a carte features and we’ve been adjusting pricing and the percentage of gold subscribers is increasing. So, a lot of people like to focus just on subscribers, but as we often say, it’s a revenue focus at Tinder, not just the subscriber story. And so the subs is a piece of it, but we’re also focused on driving ARPU higher, which we’ve been able to do and we’re expecting to have a solid year-over-year growth in ARPU in Q3 and Q4 as well, which will drive improved revenue at Tinder. So, that is the other piece of it. We’ve just rolled out these two new al a carte features that Mandy mentioned. I think you’ll see some lift on the ARPU side as you see the results for Q3 and Q4. Anything else, Ross? Otherwise, we’ll move to the next one.
Ross Sandler:
No, that’s super helpful. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Okay, great. Thanks.
Operator:
And thank you. Our next question will come from Brent Thill of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Good morning. Mandy, can you just maybe walk through some of the core match improvements in the early results and for Gary, there’s a lot of questions around can it grow, are you going to run that core business just for profits If you could add a little more color around the financial dynamics that you see going forward for core match?
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. Good morning, Brad. So, let me take that first part. So, can we take a step back and think about kind of the audience that match serve. It’s really focused on 30s and 40s in the U.S. that are looking for a serious relationship and for people over 35, it’s the brand that still brings the highest number of new entrance into the category. We have made a lot of progress over the last couple of quarters. Satisfaction rates are up, conversions up. We’re feeling really, optimistic. And then we also introduced a new feature called AskMatch, which I talked about. We think it’s highly differentiated. And so we felt good enough that this is really the time to bring attention back to the brand, which is why we launched this new campaign that I talked about. our goal remains to turn the brand to grow similar to what we did at OkCupid over last couple of years and we are cautiously optimistic that we can turn match around and return it to growth. We’re feeling good about that brand.
Gary Swidler:
Yes. And I think if you look at match itself, as Mandy said, our goal is to get that brand back to growth from a subs and a revenue perspective. If you zoom out a little bit away from just match and look at the non-Tinder brand, which is something we’ve been talking about it’s kind of been flattish from a revenue perspective. We think we have a lot of different weapons inside the non-Tinder portfolio that will return all those brands in aggregate to growth in the not-too-distant future. So, we’ve talked a lot about hinge. We’ve talked a lot about what’s going on at OkCupid. We’ve talked a lot about the positive momentum at pairs and I could go on, but our expectation is that the non-Tinder brands will start contributing to the revenue growth of the company, hopefully by the end of this year, if not then very early next year.
Brent Thill:
Great. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Youssef Squali of SunTrust. please go ahead.
Youssef Squali:
Great. Thank you very much and congrats guys. Gary, can you size what you termed the discretionary long-term oriented investment? I think you guys have talked about 10 million previously and just how will those costs look into next year, whether these costs basically remain in the P&L next year or whether we anniversary them and move on? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Yes. I don’t think I’ve actually ever given a size around these discretionary investments. I think last quarter, I basically just said we were contemplating making them. and so let me try to take it kind of in two pieces. just given the overall strong performance and the strong performance of Tinder, we want to reinvest back both in Tinder and in some of these other initiatives. I can’t really remember a time when we’ve had so many great investment opportunities, so many assets to invest in when you look at Harmonica for the Muslim market, when you look at pairs engage, which we’re really excited on the matrimony market in Japan, it’s a place we’ve never tried to attack before. So, we’ve got a lot of really interesting opportunities in front of us and given the strong performance this year. We’ve got the ability to go make these investments. So, we’re trying to do a bunch of different things here in these last couple of quarters of the year. And so if you look at, we’re going to invest a bunch back in Tinder marketing into new geos, where Tinder historically hasn’t marketed before, that includes some in Asia and we think there’s room to expand the geos, where Tinder has been marketing and put some real dollars to work there. So that’s a piece of it. And then as we’ve kind of gone through, there’s probably, four or five, six other buckets, OkCupid and some of the international markets including India, that Mandy referenced, Harmonica, which I referenced as well as pairs Engage. If you take all of those other buckets plus Tinder, you’re probably looking at, I would guess about $25 million or so of EBITDA impact from all these investments that we want to make this year yet. So, it’s a pretty big number. As far as whether it will continue, we don’t know yet what the impact of all this is going to be. So, we’ve got to look at is it Tinder marketing effective? Is Paris engage gained the traction we want yet? is the Muslim market product getting the traction we want to get? So, I don’t know what it portends for 2020 yet, but our hope is that that marketing and those investments will have real impact and we’ll want to continue them and ultimately they will lead to revenue and ultimately EBITDA benefits. But it's going to be some time before we see what the real impact of all these investments is? We're making them cautiously. We've thought about them for a while now, and we're starting to make those investments. We have a pretty good ability to figure out where to invest. And we'll have to see, but we don't look at them as kind of one time once and done investments for the most part, they are things that are meant to drive the business going forward. And that, discretionary bucket, which is a large bucket and has a lot of different components is on top of our addition to money that we're spending around regulatory and making sure the user stay safe and their data's protected. So there's another bucket on top of that. So you aggregate that up, it's a pretty big impact on our EBITDA in 2019.
Youssef Squali:
Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Yes, hopefully that helps you. Okay, great.
Youssef Squali:
Yes. Super helpful. Thanks, Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. No problem. Next question please.
Operator:
Our next question is from Dan Salmon of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Great. Thanks for taking the question. Good morning everyone. Mandy, I just wanted to ask a little bit more about Asia broadly, and maybe you could just considering that most of us on the call, a little bit more U.S. focused, you could maybe just refresh us on the competitive environment there and how it may differ from what you see in western markets in terms of local players or maybe some changing dynamics lately that you'd highlight. And then secondly, I'd just like to drill down a little bit more on Pairs Engage. And what you noted is sort of attacking the matrimony business specifically and which obviously is all part of relationships. But a little bit different than some of your apps and there are certainly businesses that have taken a different approach there. Could you just spend a little bit more time on matrimony services specifically? And where that opportunity may also be in Asia beyond Japan is, I think that's fairly common in India and South Asia as well? Thank you.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. Morning, Dan. All right. So let me take that. So, we talked about Asia opportunity, but Asia is obviously very multifaceted, and so I'll talk about it in a couple of different areas. We really look at developed markets like Japan and South Korea. And then we look at developing markets, Southeast Asia and India to all break those up. For the develop markets, there is a real social need given low population growth, and low marriage rates, and people are looking for ways to meet people, especially outside of their social circles. Because there's a little bit more shyness around meeting people through friends. In Japan where the category is growing, only about 17% of singles are open to using a relationship or dating app that's low. I mean that's – it's about 50% and, North America and Europe. So that dynamic is a big change. So we think there's a real opportunity to increase user adoption. And I think it's pretty interesting in these markets where social stigma is changing, but I think part of one of the opportunities that we think regarding stigma is historically mainstream media. I'm talking television, billboard, radio, they have not traditionally allowed dating apps in relationship to app to advertise. And I think those barriers are slowly collapsing, which I think will further help erode stigma and make it just much more normal in society to use the apps. And then the one other dynamic, I just point out is these more developed markets is, monetization is really different. I mean, in many of these markets, particularly Japan, it's even better monetizing in some western markets. So that dynamic is really an advantage for us. People are willing to pay for products. If you look at, developing markets, it's definitely a little bit different. So these are where population growth is exploding. Internet and mobile penetration is still growing meaningfully faster than anywhere else in the world. There's a couple of factors in these markets, which I think are interesting and that are really compelling to us. So there's highly populated cities and in those cities there's large segments of young educated, affluent users, which we think that's an opportunity for us to offer products like Tinder and others. And then, you asked about the competitive set. There are definitely well fortified competitors in some of these markets, both global players that we're seeing as well as local or regional players. I think in terms of our position in the market, I don't think it's a winner take all market in the U.S. we're seeing, people use multiple apps. I think that's going to continue to be a trend, not just in the U.S. and Western Europe, but I think we'll see that happen over time as well. So, I do think it's possible that as these new entrants come into the market and spend heavily along with us having a presence in these markets, it could open up the market and further road stigma, which I think would sort of lift the whole category app, but regarding how we're competing. I think we're really well positioned. We've got a track record of creating products that really resonate with young audience that are looking for relationships. We've also done a, I think a good job and identifying and finding and investing in local teams, which we think is even more important over the next five years, and then extending existing brands into the market. So overall we feel like we're in a great place. I'll talk a little bit about the marriage market, because I think that is relatively new. We just launched Pairs Engage honestly weeks ago, so it's still super early. So you – there are, the matrimony markets are pretty large and a number of markets like India and South Korea and Japan among others. These businesses because a lot of us don't have direct exposure to them. Most of them are offline. They're brick and mortar, so they have a store friends. They're generally pretty high priced for consumers and it's pretty expensive to service these consumers, especially given kind of the brick and mortar footprint I mentioned. And often they have salespeople in a lot of service oriented people within this brick and mortar stores. So the Pairs team, which we've talked a lot about has done a great job in building this Pairs business over the last few years. And what they have really a strong asset is an engineering team that has the ability to leverage the latest technology plus the Pairs user base. And we think the combination of these two things is, could have the ability really potentially disruptive marriage market, which we talked about, which is pretty large market in Japan, and, it's really early. We just launched the early taxes. We've gotten a lot of press and really early signals this – there's going to be a lot of user interests, and I think as you know, as we expand over the next few years in Asia, I can imagine that these are the types of solutions that can translate to other markets. So we'll see, but I think that certainly one more product and more sort of tool in our arsenal to be able to address that market.
Dan Salmon:
That's great. Thank you for all that color, Mandy. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Ben Schachter of Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Ben Schachter:
Hey guys, congrats again on the good execution. Gary, going back to the app payments and the impact on COGS, as you noted, it fell sequentially as a percentage of revenues for the first time in many years. And I think you mentioned that the IAP change had single-digit impact and we'll grow, but single digit what, can you clarify what you meant there? And basically, would you expect that COGS to continue to fall as a percentage of revenue for the foreseeable future? And then secondly, related to that for modeling purposes, can you help us understand what the percentage of total revs are currently originating on android and how you expect that to evolve over time? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. I'm sorry if I wasn't clear on the answer earlier. When I was responding to actually with Nat had put out a report that, that he thought the change by adding credit card added $10 million to EBITDA, I think is what he said. And I was talking about it, it was less than that. It was kind of in the single digit in this quarter. So that's what I was responding to you. So it was an EBITDA contributions kind of number. But you're right. This is the first quarter in awhile that we've seen. If you look at the sequential trends in COGS is down about 50 basis points. So that is a change in trend. I think we'll see how this kind of plays out over the next few quarters, but my expectation is that there'll be some level of stability. Maybe it'll be up a little bit, maybe we down a little bit, but if you look sequentially over the next few quarters, you're going to see more stability, less of an increase in what we've been seeing sequentially for the last many, many quarters. That's kind of the change from the impact of adding the Google credit card option. As far as kind of how do we think about the breakdown between iOS and android on Tinder, as you might expect, it is more iOS heavy at the moment. It's more than majority iOS, but as we expand internationally, especially to some of these developing markets where android is more popular, I think that that balance will shift over time. So, we could see some more parody there over time. But right now it does lean more heavily on the iOS side from a revenue percentage perspective.
Ben Schachter:
Thank you. Just one…
Gary Swidler:
Yup. Go ahead.
Ben Schachter:
One, one quick housekeeping. The tax in France and other taxes they may come, is that going to be counted as a contra revenue G&A or is that just part of the income tax line?
Gary Swidler:
Yes, it's not an income tax. It's an above the line item. So it is an expense item.
Ben Schachter:
Okay. Thanks. Last question.
Operator:
Our next question from Benjamin Black of Evercore. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Black:
Okay. Thanks for allowing me in here. I was just wondering if you could talk about your capital allocation priorities, given your when you'd pushed around presence in APAC? And secondly perhaps, could you highlight the near and long-term market opportunity and the competitive environment you see in the Middle East and how well Harmonica is penetrated there? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. From a capital allocation perspective, I think if you go back, it's probably about a year ago or so now, we laid out, how we think about capital allocation. We laid out four priorities, which were in order if I get them right. Organic investment in the business, M&A, return of capital to shareholders, and debt pay down. And that is our way of thinking about capital allocation. Obviously, there's a lot of different factors that go into it and we constantly analyze it. But that has kind of been our framework. And fortunately what we're seeing in this year, given the outperformance that we're experiencing, is that we've got the ability to really invest in organic growth, which is our number one priority. And that's what we're doing. And we're doing it at a bunch of different ways. We're doing it at Tinder by expanding its marketing into more geographies. We're doing it at OkCupid by expanding it into a bunch of new markets, in India and elsewhere in Asia. We're doing it at Pairs. And so, it's really, in a number of ways where we're reinvesting capital that we're generating. And then as I kind of alluded to earlier, we've got new assets as well, which we've either brought on board like Harmonica or built in house like Pairs Engage that we can invest in as well. So, we are really kind of hitting that, number one priority of investing organically in our business in a big way on multiple fronts. And we're excited to do that, but as we've also shown over time, if we don't have a capability in house that we think we can do better by making an acquisition or investment, we'll do that too. So Pairs was an example in Japan that we did initially and that's worked out really well by combining their knowhow and our knowhow. And we're hoping that the same will hold true at Harmonica where it's a very small app, really, focused on the Egypt market at the moment. But we're going to try to build it out and expand it and get it into other geographies and invest in it with product and marketing. And we think there's real opportunity just given the size of the Muslim Demographic that Mandy talked about and how quickly it's growing that we think we can position ourselves over the next while to capture more and more of that opportunity. So it's early, this kind of product is really new in this market. There's a couple of other competitors that exist out there, but we feel good with a good team on the ground and our knowledge and resources in the dating space, that we should really be able to be highly successful in the Muslim Demographic, which we think gives us a huge opportunity to massive runway. But it's going take time, and so people are going to have to be patient, I think to see the results from that investment in Harmonica, but it's one that we're excited to be making.
Benjamin Black:
Great. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. I'm going to leave it there since we're out of time. Appreciate everyone joining and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation. And you may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good morning. And welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode [Operator Instructions]. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Lance Barton:
Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. Also joining me on the call are Match Group CEO, Mandy Ginsberg; and CFO, Gary Swidler. Mandy and Gary will review the first quarter Investor presentation that is available on our Investor Relations Web site and then take questions. Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Now, over to you Mandy.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Q1 2019 earnings call. We had a fantastic Q1, and 2019 is off to a great start. Tinder is driving very strong results, and we have a lot of opportunity ahead of us. We're achieving these results by enhancing the product and delivering the best experience possible for young single people all over the world. We are also excited about international opportunities. We recently announced that we realigned our leadership team to focus on the opportunities we see across Asia-Pacific. This new structure will allow us to accelerate Tinder and to extend our reach through other brands in this region. Our emerging brands are promising, especially Hinge, which I will get into a bit later. I am confident that as we focus on scaling these businesses and improve the product experience, revenue is going to naturally follow. And the last thing I want to mention before I get into the slide is we are seeing positive results with Match's redesign. It gives us confidence in our plan to that business moving forward. If we execute on our strategy, which is growing our existing brands, making new bets and investing in those new bets, and increasing our focus on developing markets, we will have multiple drivers across the company that will produce steady, long-term growth for us. And while we are executing our strategy, we'll remain highly competitive by doing what I think we do best, delighting our customers by providing best on product experiences across each of our brands. Let's switch to slide four. There are 600 million singles globally, and roughly half are in the region on this slide that we are defining as APAC. This is four times as many singles, and this region compared to North America where half of our revenue is today. We are positioning the company to capture the opportunity we see across this region. A decade ago, this part of the world was not showing much traction in our category, and then as a result, we put very few resources focused on the region and we lacked local expertise. Then, things started to change significantly in 2014. First, the adoption of mobile phone app helped open up the market. Then, we started to see early stages of a huge shift in the cultural norms around dating and marriage across APAC. And those shift had an impacts on our portfolio in a couple of ways, Tinder emerged as a cultural phenomenon that was able to transcend geography, it organically generated tens of millions of downloads without really any localized expertise or localized product. And then in Japan, Pairs grew from a small innovative start-up to a market leader in less than three years. At both Tinder and Pairs, we leveraged Match Group's deep knowledge of dating products to generate over 200 million in revenue through this region this past year. This is a 10 time increase over 2014. As dating culture involved in these markets over the last couple of years, we were right there, providing products to help young millennials [ph] connect with others in their cities. And we believe this is just a beginning of our growth story in APAC. We have plans to aggressively pursue this massive opportunity in front of us. Okay, so the big question is, "How are you going to do it?" We recently realigned our management team to focus on this region. We created hubs in Delhi, Tokyo, Seoul, and Singapore. On the Tinder front, we plan to localize the product and reinforce our leadership position there, and just like in the U.S. and Western Europe, we don't think there is going to be just one product for everyone. As we result, we plan to continue to introduce more brands to the region to address different segments. In India, Tinder is already the top grossing app overall, and we think there is real opportunity as the dating culture is shifting rapidly and less people are opting for arranged marriage. India is the second largest country by population in the world with nine cities over six million people. As more young and educated Indians move to big cities, our products can help them find meaningful connections. Over a year ago, we made the decision to promote the head of Tinder in India to a broader role. We wanted more focus and energy around new products, as well as M&A. Our GM of Match Group in India, who is a great leader there, oversaw the launch of OkCupid, which was our second brand there. Previously, OkCupid had a tiny organic presence there. Since the launch in Q4 just a couple of months ago, the momentum is building, and it's become a complementary alternative to Tinder. Downloads in India for OkCupid were up 600% year-over-year in Q1 to become one of the top dating apps in India only after a few months of investment and minimal investments. Our success in India is a template of how we are approaching other emerging Asian markets. We empower incredible talent on the ground, who understands the culture, regulatory challenges, and market dynamics. And the last few years really has given us real learnings to invest in the region in a disciplined and a focused way. Japan is a great example of where we acquired an early stage business that has local traction. In 2015, Pairs joined Match Group, the young entrepreneurial team with strong engineering and product jobs. Pairs is now the market leader for serious relationship. This is another country where there is room for multiple brands. Tinder continues to grow its user base. And it's one of the top five dating apps in the country. Japan is one of our highest lifetime value market. People there are willing to pay for dating services. It's also a place where online dating stigma continues to erode. There is still plenty of work to do to improve the perception as a category, not just with consumers but also with advertisers who previously were not open to online dating products in their channels. And like India, we have a local stellar leader, who is overseeing our brands in Japan and Taiwan as well. The last area I will cover is Southeast Asia. Tinder is already a top 10 grossing app in six countries across Southeast Asia. We see more opportunity to grow our portfolio there. In Southeast Asia in the last five years, Internet penetration has grown by almost 15%. And this area has more than a dozen high density cities with over a million people and more and more young people are moving to large cities. These are really important factors that make the need for our app high. We have a highly talented leader who is spearheading our brands here. I want to wrap up this section, but before I do, there is one more thing I want to call out. We are excited about the Tinder Lite app that will be coming soon. It's a big step forward addressing the needs of consumers there. Tinder Lite will be a smaller app to download. It will take less space on your phone, making Tinder more effective even in more remote areas or regions. And keep in mind, these are regions where data usage still comes at a premium. As a result of our continued investment and growth in this region, we expect that APAC will make up a quarter of our company's total revenue by 2023. Let's turn to slide five and talk about Tinder. In the U.S., Tinder continues to reinforce its position as a leading brand for young singles. Seventy one percent of the young population which includes Gen X, Y, and Z, all agree with the following statement
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Mandy. I'm delighted to report that we're off to a strong start to the year financially. Our momentum from Q4 carried into Q1. Overall revenue growth in Q1 was strong and Tinder subscribers grew very nicely. FX was a real headwind but we expect it to dissipate in the back half of the year. As the year progresses, we also anticipate that we will benefit from investments we're making in a variety of brands from Hinge to Match and the Tinder revenue growth will continue to roll along. Let's get into the specifics from the quarter. Then I'll update our financial outlook. On slide nine, you can see that Tinder direct revenue grew 38% year-over-year in Q1 as our product optimization efforts in Q4 gave us momentum that continued into the new year. The story was not one of specific new revenue features but rather merchandising optimizations, and product and algorithm refinements, which we continue to implement through Q1. Given its scale, Tinder has lots of opportunity to optimize the user experience, which does two things, improves outcomes and matching, and drives more users to become paying subscribers, because they see value in being a payer. As we've said before, 2019 will, in part, be about gradual tweaks to the Tinder product that we're confident will enhance the experience for users and generate subscriber and revenue growth. That was clearly the case again in Q1. Tinder subscribers grew 36% year-over-year in Q1 to just over 4.7 million. Tinder added 1.3 million subscribers year-over-year, and 384,000 subscribers sequentially; the third best level of sequential additions in its history, and higher than any quarter in 2018. Gold subscribers continued to increase as a percent of total Tinder subscribers. Tinder's ARPU is up 2% year-over-year on an as-reported basis, but on FX neutral basis, was up much more meaningfully. Tinder marketing spend was essentially flat year-over-year in Q1 with North America spend actually down year-over-year. Overall Tinder marketing spend was down over 200 basis points as a percent of revenue. On slide 10, you can see that average subscribers across the company's brands reached over 8.6 million in Q1, up 16% year-over-year. Tinder drove our subscriber growth again this quarter. We saw some pressured match, which impacts the North American sub growth as we reduce marketing spend there by about 8%. We expect that as we continue to rollout the product refinements at Match that Mandy discussed, our year-over-year non-Tinder subscriber growth will begin to improve. We also will look to increase marketing spend at Match to support the product enhancements and drive user growth, and ultimately to subscriber growth assuming we continue to see product success there. Our international subscriber growth was driven by Tinder, which has a larger impact internationally, as well as by Pairs. As reported ARPU for the company was stable overall at $0.58, it was up 2% in North America, but down 3% internationally, because of negative impacts for FX. However, on an FX neutral basis, international ARPU is up 5%, and overall company ARPU is up 4% or $0.02 to $0.60. Flipping to slide 11, you can see that the company's total revenue growth was 14% year-over-year, reaching $465 million of total revenue for the quarter. Total revenue growth would have been 18% without the impact of FX for total revenue of $483 million on a constant currency basis. North America grew direct revenue 12%, driven by 10% subscriber growth and 2% ARPU growth, while international direct revenue increased 19% driven by 23% growth in subscribers and a 3% ARPU decline. Indirect revenue, mostly from ads declined $4 million due to continued declines in impressions of non-Tinder brands, coupled with the impact of changes to the deal terms in our relationship with fan. Operating income grew 6% to $119 million. EBITDA grew 13% to $255 million. The growth was driven by the higher revenues and lower overall marketing spend as a percent of revenue, partly offset by higher in-app fees, $5 million of higher legal regulatory and compliance costs, and in the case of operating income, higher stock-based compensation expense. Stock-based comp expense in the quarter was up $11 million year-over-year to $27 million, primarily due to the vesting of certain market-based awards at Tinder. Despite this, we remain on track for about $80 million of SBC expense for the full-year. In addition to posting strong operating results and cash flow in Q1, our balance sheet remain very healthy, 12 months trailing leverage ended Q1 at 2.4 times on a gross basis, and 2.1 times on a net basis, flat to year-end 2018. Despite over $130 million of total stock buybacks and cash payments and net settle employee equity awards in Q1. Our financial flexibility remains excellent. We have talked before about the strong operating leverage in our business and in our competence in achieving 40% plus EBITDA margins. A large driver of this is the shift from brands that spend a higher percentage of the revenues on marketing, like Match and Meetic to brands that spend a lower percentage of their revenue on marketing, like Tinder, OkCupid and PlentyOfFish. Slide 12 shows the impact of this shift in terms of sales and marketing spend for the last nine quarters as a percent of total revenues. You can see the consistent year-over-year declines. Q1, which tends to be our highest marketing, spend quarter shows the most dramatic impacts. Over the last two years, marketing spends a percent of revenue in the first quarter has declined by 10 percentage points from 36% to 26%. In fact, if you look at the aggregate amount of marketing dollars, we spent in Q1 '19, it was almost exactly the same as our spend a year ago, about $118 million. We have shifted the mix, Match and Meetic are down Hinge is up, for example, but the total is almost precisely the same. What becomes apparent from this data is that our business has the ability to drive growth without increasing marketing spend as a percent of revenue. We believe product enhancements are the key driver of growth across our portfolio, which we supplement with generally strong ROI marketing spend. As we enter new markets or introduce new products, we do have to invest in marketing. As we push Tinder into new developing markets where category and brand awareness are low, we do expect to increase marketing investment, which we're confident will pay off over time. And as we have discussed, we're investing in emerging brands like Hinge where we see real traction. That said, our marketing spend trend over the past two years is notable. Now let's turn to slide 13 in our latest financial outlook. For Q2 '19, we expect total revenue of $480 million to $490 million. This includes the impact of continued FX headwinds, as was the case in Q1, we expect $190 million to $195 million EBITDA in Q2. We anticipate that Tinder will continue to drive growth. And that we'll see similar trends in the non-Tinder brands and indirect revenue as what we experienced in Q1. We expect Tinder to have a larger number of sequential average subscriber additions in Q2 than was the case in Q1. This is driven by optimizations we're continuing to make to the product as well as by merchandising changes. Tinder recently crossed 5 million total that is ending not average subscribers, a phenomenal achievement for such a young business. The solid momentum in Q1 and our expectations for Q2 give us increasing confidence in our full-year financial performance. In the back half of the year, we're considering investing further in marketing spend, particularly at Tinder, and in other global growth opportunities, if we believe these investments will drive long-term growth. Even if we pursue these additional investments, we are targeting margin expansion for the full-year. For the full-year 2019 subscriber additions that Tinder should exceed our 1 million target. At the moment, we're forecasting more typical subscriber addition levels in the back half of the year, compared to the first two quarters in 2019. The precise number of Tinder subscriber additions for the year will depend on two key things. The first is the renewal rates for our product initiatives in the first-half of the year. Because these implementations are recent, we're watching to see how renewal rates fare. The second is the impact of an optimization we rolled out very successfully on iOS in early Q2 that we plan to roll on to Android later this year. The precise timing of that rollout, as well as its conversion impact will affect the number of Tinder subscriber additions in the back half of the year. We believe we can continue to grow Tinder ARPU in the mid-single digits for the year. As you know though, we're focused on driving overall revenue at Tinder not specifically on subscriber or ARPU growth. We remain confident the company's overall year-over-year revenue and EBITDA growth will accelerate as the year progresses. As FX becomes less of a headwind as non-Tinder businesses begin to contribute more. We're happy to be off to a strong start in 2019. Having delivered a solid Q1 and strong outlook for Q2, our Tinder business continues to grow revenues and subscribers meaningfully. We're growing users at our newer businesses like Hinge, Ship, Chispa ,and BLK, and we're executing on our strategic plans to return the Match brand to growth. As Mandy discussed, we're also further positioning the company to capture more of the global opportunity with APAC presenting an opportunity for meaningful incremental top line growth as the culture and behaviors of their shift and smartphone penetration increases. We believe all of this puts us in a terrific position to continue to deliver a solid financial performance for our shareholders. With that, I'll ask the Operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
Yes, thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Kunal Madhukar with Deutsche Bank.
Kunal Madhukar:
Hi, thanks for taking the question. Two, if I may, one for Mandy and one for Gary. Mandy, can you talk about the comparative landscape in the Asian countries that you are targeting with the re-organization, with the management re-org? And Gary, can you tell us where we are starting -- what is the starting point for the APAC revenues? So, we are trying to get to a quarter of revenues, where are we now? Thank you.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay, I'll take the first part, Kunal. So, in terms of competition, outside of the traditional matrimony players which exist in this region, we are definitely keeping our eye on some regional competitors that have gotten some traction, but the thing to know is that there are a number of Chinese players that are investing outside of China and spending significant marketing dollars in Asia as well. And then obviously Facebook is jumping in and recently announced that they are covering more markets in Asia region. We believe that based on the fact that we have got a really great head start with Tinder and Pairs in particular that we are going to be in a great position to compete in these markets. And we also know that this is a multi-use app category. Therefore, people who are dating are using multiple apps, and we think that with these competitors moving in there is maybe opportunity to even open up the category even more.
Gary Swidler:
And Kunal, I think in terms of where we are in Asia right now, the way to think about it first of all is that there is two drivers. There's Tinder and then there is our Pairs business which is largely in Japan and a couple of other places in Asia. We are building OkCupid in India as well. And so, those businesses today are driving significant revenue for us probably around the order of $200 million or so last year. But our goal is to get the overall Asia revenue up to about 25% of the company's revenue over a five-year period. So a significant driver of growth for us over the next five years and that's why we are investing and reorganized in that market.
Kunal Madhukar:
Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Next question please?
Operator:
Yes, thank you. That comes from Anthony DiClemente with Evercore.
Anthony DiClemente:
Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. So, basically at a high level you guys are crushing Tinder subscriber expectations. It's look like you are going to hit 80% of your prior guidance in the first half of the year alone. So investors are wanting to know that's excellent and what's driving that outperformance? Gary, in your prepared remarks you mentioned various tweaks or optimizations to the platform. So maybe just give us an example or two of those. And what -- and it sounds like a collection of evolutionary drivers and improvement. So, just what gives you the confidence that those sorts of improvement continue as the company moves forward? And then maybe second question would be related to the upside to Tinder subscriber adds that's not really flowing through to the '19 EBITDA guide as you flow through the benefit of those higher subs. And just wondering why not? Is that the expectation that there is going to be ARPU pressure from these newer markets as you blend in perhaps lower ARPU emerging markets, or I know you mentioned the cost sides of investing in marketing in like Hinge and Tinder and emerging markets. So maybe just a little more on that as to why we are not seeing it flow through to higher EBITDA guide? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Yes. Okay, let me try to answer those as best I can. So, on the Tinder subs, I mean we have been talking for a long time now that we felt that there was a lot we could do on the optimization side at Tinder. The way we merchandized the product, the way we think about PayWall and so forth. And we have been doing that. We did it heavily starting in Q4. We continued into Q1. And obviously the results kind of speak themselves As you said, where the subs are growing very nicely and the company is really performing well. So, we are going to keep doing that, and that's going to continue to take place throughout the year. I don't want to get into too many specifics around the kind of tweaks we are making because we are sensitive to the competitive impacts of that. But I will say that we -- and just to the things that we did through the first quarter of the year, we did rollout a pretty significant update to the way we merchandized Gold. And we have always talked about Gold is an extremely compelling offering. We have seen that in the numbers around Gold for the last six quarters or so, certainly in the late '17 into '18. And as we refine how we merchandize that, just like any other product the better you merchandize a great product, the more sales you make and more people take you up on it. And that continues to be the case with Tinder -- Tinder subscription and Tinder Gold more specifically. And so, we are continuing to refine that. We have work to do. We have got team focused on it. And we are continuing to make a lot of progress. And so, you are right. With what we achieved from a subscriber just as perspective in Q1 plus what we are expecting in Q2, we get about 80% to that 1 million number that we had given last quarter, so that's why we are saying we have high confidence we are going to surpass that. Exactly where we are going to get to is still something that we are not quite ready to make a call on yet. Some of these optimizations are relatively new. They either happen in the first quarter or some of them have even happened over the last few weeks. So, they have been market a very short time. And we want to see how all that plays out, and grow through from a subs perspective. Plus, one of the optimizations we have done on iOS only. And we are planning to roll that out on to android, but that probably won't happen until sometime in the middle of the year. And so, we will see how that affects android subs and that will affect our sub number for the back half of the year. So, there is a lot of moving pieces. Things are still early and that's why we haven't made the call quite on EBITDA and where we are for the year, really revenue and EBITDA. But obviously as I expressed in my remarks, we feel good about where the trends are going both on revenue and EBITDA for the year driven by Tinder and the upside from all the optimizations that we are putting through in that product. And now it's before we get to other things later in the year which we still have in sights. The other thing on EBITDA specifically we have given a range of $740 to $790 for the year. We are not adjusting that at this point in time. And, the reason for that is largely because we see a lot of opportunity to continue to invest. And really that is on two fronts. Primarily one is on Tinder. We are expanding internationally. Tinder is getting into more and more markets. But we see opportunity. We see opportunity in markets that we haven't quite gotten to from a marketing spend perspective yet where we are getting feet on the ground and we see more opportunity. And so to the extent we have product success at Tinder and ultimately subscriber and revenue success which has been the case so for this year, we want to try to reinvest some of that into the business into Tinder and position ourselves for long-term growth in some of those markets, particularly in Asia. And so we are going to spend some of that upside. And more specifically even outside of Tinder, we see that opportunity in Asia that Mandy spent quite a bit of time talking about. And we may roll additional of our brand into Asia or even build a new brand for Asia. Those are things that we are thinking about as we analyze and think about each market. And we have done it successfully with OkCupid in India, obviously, a lot more to go there. But we could replicate that in other markets in Asia. Even with those incremental investments in marketing at Tinder and even with things we might do to build brands, to capture more of the Asian market opportunity, we still expect to deliver improved operating -- improved EBITDA margins for 2019 over 2018. So we will spend some of the goodness, but we will still see some of it dropped to the bottom line. And that's how we are thinking about the rest of the year. So, we have an adjusted EBITDA guidance at the momentum, but those are I think the moving pieces on revenue, on EBITDA, on our investments and how we are thinking about the balance of the year given the trends that we clearly see thus far in 2019.
Anthony DiClemente:
That's really clear. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question comes from Ben Schachter with Macquarie.
Ben Schachter:
Hey, guys, following up a little Anthony's question. Can you talk more about pricing specifically around how you are doing that? So, what has been the strategy there? What has worked thus far? What's not worked? And how you think that's going to evolve? And then second question is just on the marketing spend, can you talk about how you are thinking about that in terms of evolving around that different channels? Is Asia going to be using the same channels that have worked so well in the west? Or, are you going to be doing things different there in terms of the channels you are spending on?
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay, I'll take the first part. As you know we have had a long history in pricing and price optimization across a lot of our businesses since we have been in this category for a long time. And for Tinder, we are pretty early in this journey. And when we first launched Gold, it was a bit of a broad instrument, which I have talked about in the past. We think there is still a lot of room to optimize price. We hadn't really up until the last few months starting sort of back in Q4 done a comprehensive evaluation of global pricing. And we are now just starting to test price elasticity looking at market by market. And we do think there is some opportunity. So there're definitely areas for us to price up, so higher per capita markets like Japan and the Nordics and the U.K. And then also we look at opportunities for us to price down in lower per capita market like Turkey and Brazil. And at the end of the day, as we sort of said again and again, we look at those -- there's obviously going to be tradeoffs between ARPU and conversion, but we look at how do we optimize revenue overall, especially even if we dropped price where its revenue accretive. Late last year, we hired a Head of Pricing at Tinder, which is great, putting more investment in that area. And like I said, we've got -- we're really kind of early innings and into the pricing journey, and we feel like we've got lots of opportunity ahead.
Gary Swidler:
I think on the marketing spend in Asia, we do tailor it to some extent to the different countries, we've got people on the ground in each country whose job it is to evaluate what channels will yield us the best return, what makes the most sense in those markets, and really resonates with people in those markets. So, the strategy is tailored to the different markets, and I think we're getting sharper at doing that. So we did run some TV in India and Korea, in the first part of the year. If you look at TV, for example, in India, it's a lot cheaper and more efficient than it is in the U.S. overall, we're not doing that in the U.S., we found opportunity to do it in India, when you contrast that, let's say with the Japanese market, TV is not something that's available to us. And so, we're using a lot of other online channels as opposed to TV, but if TV were to open up in Japan, we think that would be a terrific channel for us as well. So, as these markets evolve, as we get better and better tailoring our marketing spend and targeting in those countries, we will continue to evolve our strategy. The only other thing I wanted to point out is we think about Asia and kind of tailoring our approach there, there's also some room to potentially tailor our approach on the revenue side, because the revenue models that we've used thus far, in particular at Tinder across the world, may not be perfectly tailored for some of these Asian markets. So, we may think of other sources of revenue in Asian markets. We may think of different pricing and different kind of packaging approaches in these markets. So, different things resonate in those markets. We will tailor our revenue models in those countries. So that's probably a little bit further down the line as we get a little bit smarter and sharper in these countries, but we do see opportunity to adjust a little bit on the revenue side, as well as on the marketing side as we expand our business into the Asian markets.
Mandy Ginsberg:
And I'll just add one more thing. Not only is brand awareness really important in a lot of these initiatives with Tinder in Asia, but what we do look at sort of the impact of the ROI on marketing. So, for example, in Korea, where we do have a big sort of push on the TV side, not only do we look at which we did in Q4, we look at the number of new users who come in during that list, which we saw sort of a big increase of three times more users coming in, but then we also measure the baseline after that, did we see a lift, and we are actually seeing pretty significant lift in baseline, once we do sort of a big push. And what this is doing as we go kind of market-by-market is giving us playbooks and information about what is going to work in different types of markets, and we'll use that playbook in new markets as we evaluate opportunities.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Next question, please?
Operator:
Yes, thank you. And that comes from Douglas Anmuth with JP Morgan.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thanks for taking the question. Gary, I was just hoping you could elaborate a little bit more on the back-half potential long-term investments to expand on those initiatives, and if there's any way to help us quantify or kind of frame the magnitude of what you're thinking there in terms of dollars? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Yes, so like I said earlier, I think they largely fall into the two buckets. You've got incremental Tinder marketing spend in some of these Asian markets, in particular, we just expand the roster of markets that we're spending and trying to drive user growth in, and then potentially something around new brands or building some brands in Southeast Asian markets. It's a little bit early probably to quantify. If you look back, for example, what we said about Hinge, if you want to use a frame of reference, that was a brand that we were investing in, and we are trying to drive this year, and we said that would have a $25 million impact on EBITDA for the full-year, which was obviously a big number, given the traction at that brand. So I don't think we're talking about anything close to that order of magnitude. Plus, we're only talking about probably half of the year here, but that gives you a frame of reference. So, it's probably on the order of a 10-ish million dollars or something in that neighborhood, as we think about expanding the Tinder marketing spend, and the investment in the other markets, but we're going to want to maintain some flexibility, we come up with a great idea or have the chance to invest in a great brand, you know, whether it's something that we pick up from a founder or we build ourselves, we want to be able to spend that money. And again, we're going to do it in a way that maintains our margins and improves upon last year's margin. So, it's going to be spending the upside if you will.
Douglas Anmuth:
Great, thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies.
Brent Thill:
Good morning. Gary, 30% beat on Tinder subs, but only $1 million revenue flowing through on the upside, can you just talk to you know, what's happening there and where you're seeing that growth and why that would be such a lag? And then, I can follow-up with a quick follow-up?
Gary Swidler:
Okay, sure. Yes, look, I think if you think about kind of the first quarter, and knowing that our guidance was around 300,000 or so subs at Tinder, and we ended up at 384. You know, we've got some upside from that clearly in Q1, and that did flow through. So, Tinder performed pretty much as we expected, but there was about $3 million or so of FX incremental to what we expected. If you remember, last time, we said we thought it'd be about $15 million and end up being about $18 million. And that's visible in the Tinder ARPU for the quarter, where I said that it was 2% on as-report basis, but up more, it's probably, mid-single digits on an FX neutral basis. So, really it is FX that has kind of eaten into the gains that were provided by the incremental Tinder substantial. It pretty much offsets. There's a little bit of a drop of ad revenue weakness probably, but when you take away the FX and the ad revenue weakness, that basically accounts for offsetting the upsize in the Tinder subs. That's really kind of what you saw in the quarter at a pretty high level, but I think that explains kind of why you didn't see it flow through. But that's really the only thing that kind of caught us a little bit off our expectations, but Tinder performed really well. Yes, the business performed well too, and we feel great about how Q1 came through.
Brent Thill:
And just a quick follow-on in the advertising business, I realized it's so small percentage of the revenue, but from a decline perspective is one of the worst quarters you've had in terms of the decline, I know you called out a couple of the metrics around that, is this a focus going forward for you, or is this something you're going to be emphasized and push more on subscription side?
Gary Swidler:
Well, look, I think we've been pretty clear for a while now that the ad business for us is some incremental revenue, but it is a non-urging priority for us, it's not our primary focus. We're fortunate to have a really strong direct from the consumer business, that's where we generate the vast bulk of our revenue. Ads are a few percentage points of the overall company's revenue. And so, we're not surrendering it, but it doesn't get the priority on the product roadmap that new features get, particularly at Tinder. And I think that that is a logical business decision. We're dealing with prioritization. We're dealing with scarce resources, and we tend to prioritize our bread and butter, which is the consumer-generated revenue as opposed to the ad revenue. So that's how we're thinking about it. Obviously, we'd like to do better than the declines we're seeing. Some of that is driven by the changes in the economic with fan, which is just like we're going to have to deal with for another couple of quarters until that kind of goes away. Some of it is the fact that impressions are fewer on mobile than they were on desktop. So, that's hitting some of the other brands. So, we're going to deal with those trends. We've been dealing with them for a while. Probably will be kind of the similar next quarter as they are right now. And then, we'll take a look at this. I don't know if this will be the long-term trend. Well, we're not emphasizing building out ad revenue right now, as I said, as we think about Asia, we think about how that market monetizes, it monetizes a little bit differently, and I could see us trying to generate more indirect revenue from that market over time. But we'll have to see, I think that's further down the road. So the short answer is we're not prioritizing ads, we're kind of going to be status quo for a little while. Not a big piece of what we do, but over time that strategy could evolve, and we'll see where it takes us, but it's really not a main focus for us as we think about prioritizing things within the product.
Brent Thill:
Thank you.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Next question?
Operator:
Yes. It comes from John Blackledge with Cowen.
John Blackledge:
Great, thanks. Just a couple Tinder questions, on localization, have you introduced it any versions? How many countries and regions would you expect to localize Tinder and kind of what's the timing? Second would be Tinder number four app in Japan, you know, how big is the opportunity if you can get the flywheel going with Tinder in Japan like you have in a bunch of other countries? And last question would be for Tinder, second-half '19 sub ads any reason why they wouldn't track near one-half levels? Thank you.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. Hi, John, I'll take the first part of that. So, in terms of localizing Tinder, some product localization features we're already working on, so app performance is one that I talked a little bit about, Tinder Lite is coming soon, and which is really all about the speed and the experience, which we think can be really beneficial for people in international markets, where -- who are a little bit more remote. The other area that we've worked on over the past quarter, couple of quarters is the recommendation engine, and this based on geography and liquidity in some cities around the globe, it's really important to get matching right, even down to the neighborhood level. So that's something that we've been focused on just to make sure that the overall matching and the activity improvements happen across the globe. Then there are a couple of others that are a little bit more, less under-the-hood and a little more visible, which we're planning on making progress on in the feature. So if you think about on-boarding, when people join Tinder they fill out a profile information, and it's important that we capture things that are going to be relevant in that dating culture. And so, what you don't see on Tinder app today are things that are very much geared towards local dating culture. So I'll give you one example, in Japan, when people -- when it comes to dating, people share their blood type. It's almost like a horoscope. That certainly doesn't exist in a lot of other countries, but those are the kind of things that like as we understand regional nuances, specifics, we can really prioritize what actually matters when it comes to dating. And then a little less sexy, but well but important, when it comes to revenue and billing, payment does vary country-by-country, and things like carrier billing or payment providers are ways that -- there's a way that we can reduce friction to obviously impact adoption for our subscription products. And I think that overall, we've talked a lot about making investments of heads on the ground across Asia, and with that, I think that we're going to have much more insights and be able to prioritize the needs of these market, such on the localization front. I can talk a little bit about; I think your next question was how big is the opportunity in Japan, so for Japan, we've actually been operating in Japan for a long time, even prior to the acquisition of Pairs. And it's really been -- it's one of those markets where we have not seen a lot of growth or traction until really the last couple of years when things started to really take off, and I attribute to really just stigma starting to move pretty quickly in that market. And so, we think that there is definitely opportunity in that market. Tinder hasn't focused on Japan until recently. Yet we've had obviously meaningful user base there, and it's number four in revenue, but I think there's real upside. And as we looked at -- I told you we went through this exercise of really trying to understand and study price elasticity across the globe and what we found is that Tinder's price is meaningfully lower than any of the other local players. So there's still some opportunity for pricing upside there too. And like I said, what we've seen is that this is a market where there's real appetite for not just one brand, but for multiple brands. So we'll continue to evaluate those opportunities there.
Gary Swidler:
And John, I think on your question around Tinder Subs in the back-half of the year, I think there's a couple of things going on in the way we're thinking about the year, the first is -- in the first half of the year we've been focused more on conversion. We'd like to see what we can do on the ala carte side in the back half of the year. So we're evaluating some things on that front as well that could affect the sub trends. The second thing is we've rolled out some optimization have been successful I mentioned the one on IoS and we plan to roll that out on Android probably in Q3. So as you know, whenever we roll out something new that has real impact you tend to see what we'd call the stock effect a little bump that happens when we first roll out a feature that drives conversion up in a bit of a step function. So we're going to see that in Q2 with the change we've made on IoS. We'll probably see that in Q3 with the roll out of that on Android. So, you're going to see those two little bumps, I don't know yet kind of what Q4 holds in particular. So between those two things, a focus that's going to be different in the back half of the year potentially than it is in the first half of the year conversion in the front half, ALC in the back half. And also these little stock effects, these little bumps from rolling things out on IoS first and in Android, those are some of the things that account for the changes in Subs that you see kind of quarter-to-quarter.
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Okay, you're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. Just two quick questions, so obviously, how are you thinking about international growth ex-Tinder? If you don't want to give specific numbers, can you talk about qualitatively or magnitude or something? And then kind of how do you see that perhaps into next year? And then also, how do you think about pricing in India going forward? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Okay, let me take a shot at it, but I think international growth, it is right now being driven by Tinder and by Pairs with a little bit of contribution from some of our other brands as well. But we've said we see big opportunity because we are under-penetrated particularly in these Asian markets, and our plan is to drive a lot of the growth for the company over the next few years from that market. And it's going to be through a combination of things. Obviously, we're going to keep driving the stuff, we've got Tinder and Pairs, that's critical. We've brought OkCupid into India. We think we can drive growth from that. We're going to look to release either existing brands that we have, we're building new brand, and that's why I've talked a little bit about some of the investment we make -- we may make. We also may buy some things in the Asian market and then invest in marketing like we did at Hinge, and try to drive that. So we think it's going to be a multi-faceted approach to that market, and overall to hit the goal that we've set to drive a quarter of the company's revenue over five years from that market. So we're moving all the assets into place, and we have a pretty clear strategy to do it, and now it's about executing on that strategy. I think on the pricing question, particularly in India, I think you asked, right now -- and this is true for a lot of these Asian markets, where we're attracting kind of people in the urban markets, densely populated cities tend to be higher income, better-educated. That's kind of the early adopters of Tinder. And that's the case right now. And it's one of the reasons quite frankly that people may be don't see as much degradation ARPU as they might be expecting as we expand these international markets, because we're able to hold price pretty well as we expand in these international markets. You don't see probably as big a drop-off for Tinder in these international markets on the ARPU side as you might expect because we are targeting some of these royalty [ph] and the pricing we're able to achieve is not that different, not that much lower than we're able to achieve in the Western markets. That will change potentially over time as we go broader into these markets, go deeper into these markets from a customer standpoint, but given the size of these markets, a number of subscribers we can pick up, if we do that, we'll be more -- the number of subscribers more than offset any degradation of ARPU, and it will be revenue enhancing for us. So that's our strategy, but I think that's going to take a long time to play out, so that any pressure on ARPU probably won't be that visible as we expand internationally for a while. Plus if you look at the international markets more broadly, it's a mixed story. So what you do have in India, which is a market that does price a little bit lower, you also have markets like Japan, markets like Korea, that tend to price pretty well in line with some of the Western European and North American markets. So, we're able to manage that mix and obviously we're fully in control of pricing. We're able to manage that mix so that you're not seeing a drop-off in ARPU, and that's why we have confidence that for the rest of this year we're going to continue to see kind of single-digit increases in ARPU at Tinder overall, even as we drive more subs from international markets.
Jason Helfstein:
Okay.
Gary Swidler:
Hopefully that helps. It sounds like we have time for maybe one more quick question.
Operator:
Yes. And the last question comes from Ross Sandler with Barclays.
Ross Sandler:
Hey, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. A question on Hinge, I'll mix it up a little bit. So, on the London story, is that mostly organic, or are you guys doing paid promotion plus word-of-mouth to kind of get that traction? And are there things like engagement or Match rates, or whatever metrics you focused on early days at Tinder that you're seeing at Hinge as these markets grow? And then lastly on Hinge, if you look at your most penetrated markets on the East Coast, or I guess London, what are you seeing right now in terms of the overall growth of the user base for Tinder and Hinge combined? Is it accretive? Is there some cannibalization? Any update on that kind of interplay between Hinge and Tinder?
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay, I will address those. So, the one thing, I'll say is, you know, even prior to the acquisition for Hinge, which we sort of watched for a while, we saw this incredible market fit, where you know, people just love the product, and they're really engaged in this product. And so, the word-of-mouth marketing was really one of the things that made this acquisition the most compelling. What we are seeing in London is some of the same. First of the all, we also had the CEO of Hinge with over in London recently, and promoting just through PR, but we're seeing real traction in the U.K. It also tends to be an early adopter market in London, and we are spending a little bit of marketing, but really not a whole lot. In terms of the Hinge metrics, we continually see really engagement metrics, and it's roughly comparable to what we see at Tinder, especially in the early days. And in terms of population, it is a different population that we're addressing. So, while Tinder is 18 to 25, a little bit younger, little bit more casual, little bit more sort of college-oriented, when you show up and you're 19-year-old you're not looking for something more serious, but when you get your first job in your 26 years old, and you're working in New York, then you're looking for something more serious. So, in some ways I think about it as these users are kind of, you know, they grew up with app when they're in college and rather looking for something serious and intent really matters, and that's why one of the big areas of focus for Hinge is leaning into the marketing around serious relationship intense [ph]. So we think that they're very complementary each other and serve a different demographic, and as we looked at Hinge, one of the other reasons that we liked Hinge is we had Match which skews a little bit older, more serious, we had Tinder which is really younger and a little less serious. And so, Hinge really sort of fit perfectly into that portfolio gaining traction with that. So that's 25 to 30-year-old is higher intense.
Ross Sandler:
Great.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. We're going to wrap it up, because we're already passed time, but thank you everyone for joining our call, and we look forward to talking you again next quarter.
Operator:
Yes. Thank you. The conference call is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good morning. And welcome to the Match Group Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode [Operator Instructions]. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Match Group CEO, Mandy Ginsberg; and CFO, Gary Swidler, will review the fourth quarter Investor presentation that is available on the Match Group Investor Relations website and then will open it up for questions. But before we start, I’d like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as, we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Over to you Mandy.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Thanks, Lance and good morning everyone. As I passed my one-year anniversary as a CEO of Match Group, I wanted to quickly take stock of how we're set up for 2019 and beyond. Our key growth driver Tinder continued to show its strength, with outperformance in Q4 even against a really tough comp from the prior year. Tinder has a robust set of initiatives to drive strong growth for the foreseeable future. It is the go-to dating app for young singles and we continue to cement our leadership among college students while fueling growth in emerging markets like India. While, Tinder rightly gets most of the spotlight. We have a number of other brands that are poised for impressive growth and serve a different demographic or psychographic than Tinder. Hinge, which has seen accelerated growth under our leadership is a differentiated product that has clear momentum and should turn into another star. The recent launch of Ship is resonating strongly with young women and our African American and Latino focused apps continue to grow their user bases impressively. Match and Meetic continues to evolve their product and we think that those brands will see growth again heading into next year as they resonate with serious minded daters in their thirties and forties. OkCupid has shown early traction in India, and Pairs continues to ramp as a leader in Japan. Along with Tinder, these brands give us some solid weapons and a large and growing Asian market. What all this tells you is that we have tremendous amount of exciting product work underway at Match Group. We are driving innovation by incubating new products, advancing our existing ones and acquiring businesses with early traction that we can supplement with our deep experience and best practices. All of which provides us multiple levers to drive long-term growth. We also generate significant profitability and cash flow giving us the financial flexibility to strategically deploy capital for compelling M&A or greenfield opportunities. Before I talk about how we are executing on this strategy, I want to provide context for why we see plenty of room for continued growth with our products and the category. Slide 4, highlights our beliefs that out of the more than 600 million Internet connected singles in the world a whopping 400 million people have never even tried a dating product. Most people naturally assume that everyone who is single in the U.S. is on a dating app, but that's far from the truth. The reality is that more than half of all singles, both in U.S. and Europe have never tried dating products. Before Tinder launched only a third of all singles in the U.S. used online dating products and the number was dramatically lower for Tinder's core demographic. Only 16% of 18 to 24 year olds used the category back in 2012. You can see from the dating product usage chart how many, how much of an impact the growth of Tinder has brought to the category, but there is still significant amount of room to increase market penetration. While 50% is a significant number, categories like travel and retail have reached 90% penetration and I don't see why dating should be that different. For single using dating products, we've seen a continued increase in the number of apps they use at the same time, people want to improve their chances of success, so young people are using four products at once and their time spent on dating apps is increasing. Our portfolio strategy and continued emphasis on launching new apps has and will continue to pay dividends. The opportunity is even larger when looking outside the U.S. and Europe, where roughly 75% of the addressable market lives. We know that two out of every three singles outside North America and Europe have never tried a dating product, driven by a combination of category stigma and a lack of access to high speed Internet. We believe category adoption in most countries today is where the U.S. and Europe were more than 10 years ago and should have a long runway. Penetration remains quite low in geographies we are investing in such as Japan, India and South Korea. Taiwan, which is more penetrated, but still a growth market, offers proof that there is plenty of room for adoption to increase an Asia. Facebook has acknowledged the opportunity this category presents by launching their dating products in Colombia, Thailand in Canada. Given Facebooks scale, they could possibly help further erode the category stigma and increase multiple product usage, especially in under-penetrated geographies throughout Asia. But I want to be clear in terms of their impact on us to-date, we've scoured the metrics across all of our brands that operate in these three countries and we have seen no discernible impact on our KPIs from the launch of Facebook dating. To summarize the category is large and under penetrated. As the market leader for over 20 years with a portfolio of iconic brands around the world, our energies are focused on expanding category penetration, just as Tinder did for a generation of younger users. Turning to Slide 5 and in its fourth year of monetization, Tinder nearly doubled direct revenue to $805 million. In 2018 Tinder added 1.2 million average subscribers and increased ARPU by 23%. Our strategy to increase the number of Gold subscribers was a key component of ARPU growth as was the continued ramp in a la carte purchases. Tinder's top line remains impressive with 57% direct revenue growth, driven by 40% average subscriber growth and ARPU at 12% in the fourth quarter. Tinder exceeded our expectations for subscriber growth, primarily due to a number of ongoing product and merchandising optimizations that drove conversion wins, particularly in the back half of Q4. The increase in conversion led to a high volume of Tinder, first time subscribers and re-subscribers in the quarter, which allowed us to offset most of the impact from the elevated number of expiring six and 12 month Gold subscribers that we discussed on last quarter's call. A la carte revenue also reached record levels in the fourth quarter, driven in part by the high volume of subscribers at Tinder. Slide 6 highlights, key marketing and product objectives at Tinder as that support our overall strategy. The core of Tinder has always been fun and effective way to meet new people through Swipe features and our double-blind opt-in While improving the core experience of the app is always a focus, our long-term goal is to evolve the Tinder experience to a single lifestyle destination. In other words, if you are young and single, we want Tinder become an essential part of your social life and the must have app to meet new people, try new things, go to new places and attend social events. As we build new features and introduce new experiences that support that strategy three principles will and have always guided us, Tinder has to be effective, engaging and fun. Tinder got its start on college campuses and last year the launch of Tinder U meaningful increased engagement and usage within Tinder's core demographic. In 2019, we are planning to solidify our leadership position among college students by expanding Tinder U to cover even more schools throughout the U.S. while also launching Tinder U in select international markets. We're also expanding marketing through our on campus brand ambassadors and social media influencers. Expect to see more events and marketing tied to the school social calendar such as Rivalry Week and Spring Break. Moving to the middle of this slide, we will continue to drive in under penetrated markets globally. We're in the midst of a wave of rapid social and cultural change that should lead to increased appetite for dating products in these markets like Japan and India to name a few. We're adding feet on the ground in various countries and are increasing marketing efforts to further accelerate the rapid organic growth the Tinder has experienced. We already have teams at about half a dozen key countries throughout Asia who activate our marketing programs and develop the cultural insights needed to further entrench Tinder in the lives of young singles in this region. Although Tinder is already the top grossing lifestyle app in over 100 countries around the world, we do see significant opportunity for us to further invest into growth. Tinder's global growth happened despite the fact that we never really focused on adapting the product for different geographies or cultures. This is changing as we begin to localize the product and start to tailor areas such as login, profile, our algorithms and payments in various geographies. We will supplement our product localization with increased marketing to drive brand awareness. Historically, Tinder has used non-traditional channels, such as social media influencers and celebrities, to market the brand. But in certain Asian markets, the reach and cultural credibility of TV are valuable. For the first time ever, we've launched TV campaigns in both India and South Korea to create awareness for the brand. In both of these markets, the campaign show how Tinder could expand single people's social circles and allow them to share real-life experiences based on common interests. January downloads in South Korea increased nearly 3.5 times versus last January, and we're seeing an increase in downloads in India by almost 50%. As I said before, the biggest focus of our product work continues to be enhancing the core experience, increasing relevance, engagement and outcomes for all users. For example, Swipe Surge is a feature we rolled out that increased matches and conversations. We notify users during peak usage times on Tinder, kind of like signaling to people when a bar or a club is really hopping. We also continue to refine the post-match experience to increase conversations between matches and to make those conversations more contextual, engaging and fun. In our messaging area of the app, users can now connect based on music they love, and through our Spotify partnership, share music with their matches. We have an extensive road map for the feed and post-match experience, so stay tuned. As you would expect, we also have a number of revenue initiatives sprinkled throughout the year. We have not assumed a big bang revenue feature in 2019, but you can be assured that Tinder team is working hard on a number of ideas. And then more on those to come as the year progresses. Tinder has a number of vectors to focus on this year, all with one goal in mind, ensure that Tinder becomes the indispensable app for single life. As we do so, we'll drive engagement and outcomes, which, in turn, drive revenue, setting us up for a great 2019. Slide 7 lays out three of the exciting new brand opportunities we're making investments in 2019. Our biggest area of investment outside of Tinder this year will be Hinge, which we now own 100% of. The Hinge product appeals to relationship-minded millennials by providing a differentiated experience where the interface is simple, yet the profiles are deep and engaging. It is resonating with users, evidenced by the fact that Hinge continues to gain momentum not only in the U.S. where downloads grew four times on a year-over-year basis in Q4 but also in the U.K. where we saw a 10 times increase in downloads over the same time frame. Hinge has quickly become one of the most popular dating apps in New York and London, which are now its top two markets. The bottom chart highlights a handful of dating apps that have attracted funding after the breakout success of Tinder. Most of these have not gained significant traction, but what you can see is that since we made our initial investment in Hinge, it has accelerated growth and meaningfully separated from that pack. Hinge downloads are now 2.5 times more than the next largest app and 40% of Bumble's download as it continues to rapidly gain share. Armed with a differentiated and popular product and our knowledge of the category, we expect Hinge to continue to strengthen its position in this relationship-minded market. Right now, our focus is on driving user growth by raising awareness, driving downloads, increasing product affinity. We believe that Hinge can be a meaningful revenue contributor to Match Group beyond 2019. We have confidence it can carve out a solid position in the dating app landscape among relationship-minded millennials and serve as a complementary role in our portfolio next to Tinder. At the end of January, just a few weeks ago, we launched a new brand called Ship in collaboration with Betches, a fast-growing digital media brand owned by three women that have been best friends since childhood. Betches has developed a very strong following on females in their 20s, evidenced by their more than 6.5 million followers on social media, 10 podcasts and two New York Times bestsellers. Ship is the first product we've launched where friends are actively involved in the dating experience. The brand name is a play on words friendship, relationship as well as a reference to the slang shipping or to ship, which means endorsing a romantic relationship or rooting for a couple to be together. Ship mirrors the real-world behavior singles, particularly for women. The app allows users to invite their friends to select matches on their behalf and chat about matches with their close group of friends. We know that dating app users often send screenshots of their matches to their friends and that people in relationships love to choose matches for their single friends. This app combines both of these behaviors, making it the first in-app group chat and dating product that let you pick – let's your friends pick your matches. The initial launch of Ship resulted in a huge influx of women, which is a critical success factor in this category. Although it's nearly launched more than 80% of users on Ship are female, which is something I've never seen happen in the category really ever. It's still really early, but it's fun to see the traction that this product is getting already. We think the combination of a massive reach and strong female appeal of the Betches brand, combined with our category-leading knowledge of product and monetization, gives Ship a great chance for success. Last quarter, I mentioned that OkCupid was in its early testing to see whether the organic traction in India could lead to something more if we localize the product and put some modest marketing dollars to work. Those tests have resulted in a significant increase in registrations and users, so we now have plans to invest further behind that early traction. The heart of OkCupid's growth in the U.S was the provocative questions posed on the platform, which led to culturally relevant conversations in the press and amongst our users. We are replicating that formula now in India by adding localized questions that resonate with young and increasingly progressive Indian population. As a result, OkCupid has been earning headlines for insights on dating and love in India. There have been over a 100 press articles written about the business with over 800 million press impressions since October. We believe OkCupid can complement Tinder's market-leading position in India where Tinder is already the number two overall grossing app in the country. The Indian market is clearly large enough to support multiple apps and a product gap currently exists between Tinder and the legacy matrimonial websites that have existed in India for many years. Our hope is that OkCupid can fill that void, and early results showed that we're on the right path. Before Gary goes through the financials, I want to say how proud I am of what – of the team and what they've accomplished. Our financial results have been terrific. Our employees have continued to push hard and execute on plans, rolling out exciting new brands and creative new product features and marketing campaigns. And we have continued to make a difference in so many people's lives by introducing them to fantastic people who have become their partners, fiancés, husbands and wives. We have great things ahead and we look forward to continue the journey with you. With that, I will turn it over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks Mandy. We finished 2018 on a high note, capping a very strong year with 30% year-over-year revenue growth and 39% EBITDA growth. We're optimistic we can deliver again for our investors in 2019. I will first review Q4 in detail then discuss 2019 and specifically the Q1 outlook. On Slide 10, you can see that average subscribers reached over 8.2 million in Q4, up 17% year-over-year. Tinder drove our growth again this quarter, with aggregate stability at our other brands. We saw some pressure at Match and Meetic, as we spent down on marketing by about 13%. Our other brands generally performed well. Tinder sequential subscriber growth was stronger than we had expected, as optimizations and merchandising changes drove higher conversion levels and more new subscribers and resubscribers, offsetting much of the impact from a higher than normal number of expiring six and 12 month packages in Q4. The benefits of small optimizations, such as PayWall tweaks or recommendation engine changes that we made in the quarter, give us confidence that we have much more headroom on this front in 2019. On Slide 11, the left hand chart shows the rapid growth in Tinder ARPU over the last two years, up nearly 50%. This has been driven by a number of monetization features, most notably Tinder Gold as well as by strong à la carte sales. The ARPU at our other brands has remained stable over the same period. You can further see that the gap between Tinder's ARPU and the other brand's ARPU continues to narrow, and a Tinder ARPU now approaches the overall Match Group ARPU. In Q4, overall company ARPU was higher by 4% year-over-year, up $0.03 to $0.58. ARPU growth was driven by Tinder, which saw 12% higher ARPU year-over-year. International ARPU was unfavorably impacted by strength in the U.S. dollar compared to certain international currencies. On a constant currency basis, international ARPU would have been up 9% to $0.59. On a constant currency basis, Company ARPU would have been up $0.04 or 7%. Flipping to Slide 12, you can see that the 17% subscriber and 4% ARPU growth led to total revenue growth of 21% with total revenue reaching $457 million for the quarter. Indirect revenue continued to be impacted by declines and impressions of the non-Tinder brands, coupled with some impact from GDPR and from changes to the deal terms and our relationship with fan. In terms of EBITDA, we saw year-over-year growth of 15% in Q4 to $176 million. EBITDA margins declined two points year-over-year, partly due to the higher legal expenses we've mentioned before. EBITDA growth was also impacted by higher marketing expense, particularly at Hinge, Pairs and Tinder, which ran multiple marketing campaigns including Tinder U and a national brand campaign in Q4. The campaigns were timed to coincide with back-to-school as well as to lead into the important Christmas to Valentine's Day period. Product development costs increased by $5 million in the quarter, largely due to increased headcount investments at Tinder and Hinge. Operating income grew 18% driven by the higher revenues, partly offset by higher in-app fees. The operating income growth rate exceeded our EBITDA growth rate due to slower growth of stock-based comp and lower depreciation expense. Total stock-based comp expense was $16 million in the quarter, up 5% from the prior year, though for the full year, SBC expense declined by 4%. With full year 2018 behind us, I thought it would be good to once more review how the company is delivering for shareholders. On Slide 13, you can see that over the past three years we've grown total revenue at a 21% annual rate with 2018 total revenue exceeding $1.7 billion. Tinder has really outperformed over that period with a variety of product initiatives driving the outstanding revenue growth you can see on the left side of the page. It's really quite amazing to see a business go from under $50 million of revenue to over $800 million in just three years. When you look at our other businesses, you can see the trends that we've been talking about for awhile now. From 2016 to 2017 revenue declined at the other brands, primarily because we reduced marketing spend at our Affinity business, which impacted subscribers and revenue. By 2018, the overall business ex-Tinder was stable compared to the prior year. In terms of operating income, we have grown at a 32% CAGR over the past three years, with margins reaching 32% and total operating income of $553 million in 2018. We achieved $654 million of EBITDA in 2018 or just about double our EBITDA from three years prior. We've expanded margins by five points over the three years with an exceptional 2.5 point increase in 2018. We continue to have confidence in our ability to drive margins over 40% as the business continues to scale. Both operating income and EBITDA growth have been driven by the strong revenue growth and lower expenses as a percent of revenues. As the business continues to shift towards brands with lower marketing spend as a percent of revenues, partly offset by higher in-app fees. On Slide 14, you can see from the left chart that our leverage has declined noticeably over the last three years from over four times to about two times. Late last year, we paid a special cash dividend of $2 per share of Match Group common stock and Class B common stock. We used cash on hand and some borrowings under our revolver to pay the $556 million to shareholders for the dividend. We initially drew $260 million on the revolver, which was the drawn balance at 12/31/2018, but we since paid it down. Currently, our drawing stands at $185 million. It is possible that we'll access the debt markets to pay down the revolver if market conditions are favorable. We had $187 million of cash on hand at the end of 2018. And as I stated last quarter, our target gross leverage ratio is 2.5 to 3 times. We have plenty of flexibility to continue to invest appropriately in our businesses and follow through on any attractive M&A opportunity that we find. We would go above three times leverage for compelling M&A, assuming a reasonable deleveraging period. The Company generated a phenomenal $573 million of free cash flow in 2018, up 96% year-over-year. This was helped by the fact that we were not a domestic cash taxpayer. We also had some working capital favorability in late 2018. The business CapEx levels remained extremely low at $31 million for 2018. In Q4, we deployed $47 million of cash to repurchase just over 1 million shares. In 2018 in total, we repurchased 3.1 million shares at an average price of $43.72, effectively returning $134 million to shareholders. Combined with the $556 million for the dividend, we effectively returned nearly $700 million to shareholders in 2018. We also used $208 million of cash to pay employee withholding taxes in 2018, issuing 4.9 million fewer shares as a result. For the full year 2019, we're optimistic that we can continue to deliver strong financial performance. Consistent with my remarks on our last call, we believe we'll be able to deliver top line growth in the mid-teens. We expect Tinder continue to drive our growth while our other brands remain stable and aggregate. The 2019 growth outlook assumes solid monetization progress continues at Tinder, but not a step change revenue feature like Tinder Gold. We believe the Company's year-over-year revenue growth will accelerate slightly as the year progresses, as the non-Tinder businesses begin to contribute more to the equation. At Tinder, we expect the user growth and the work we're doing on both products features and optimizations will lead to adding around a million average subscribers in 2019. Given the strength we saw in Q4 at Tinder, we're positioned to have slightly above average subscriber additions in Q1 with the rest of the year pacing at more typical levels. We believe we can continue to grow Tinder ARPU in the mid single-digits for the year, depending on the mix of developed and developing market subscribers. With all that said, we remain focused on driving overall revenue at Tinder, not specifically on subscriber or ARPU growth. In terms of EBITDA, we expect a range of $740 million to $790 million for the year. Where we end up in the range will depend on revenue and the precise levels of marketing and product investment that we choose to make. I do not expect Tinder's marketing spend to grow as a percent of revenue in 2019. At the midpoint of our revenue and EBITDA ranges. Margins would be up about 60 basis points for the year. We continue to have a tight focus on marketing spend at Match and Meetic, which is pressuring their revenue and subscribers, but we're refining these products to position them for growth in 2020 and beyond. Our other long-standing brands are performing well, and we're investing in new brands like Hinge, Ship, BLK and Chispa as well as payers to drive incremental growth. We expect heavier year-over-year marketing investment in the first half of 2019, coincident with our peak season, major investment in Hinge and the launch of Ship, among other things. We expect margins in Q1 and Q2 will be down from unusually high levels in 2018 but fairly consistent with what we typically have seen in the years prior to 2018. The margin trends for the year also should be consistent with what we have seen historically, with our lowest margin in Q1 accelerate to a peak in Q4. For Q1 2019, we expect revenue of $455 million to $465 million. This is in spite of nearly $15 million of negative FX impact compared to the year ago quarter. We expect $150 million to $155 million of EBITDA in Q1 and margin of 33% at the midpoint of our ranges. As I said at the outset, we had a tremendous 2018, capping our third year of very strong financial performance as a public company. We're continuing to execute well against our strategic plans and our global opportunity and believe we're well positioned for sustained, strong, top and bottom line growth and increasing profitability. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Ross Sandler with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Great, thanks. I guess, Gary or Mandy, it seems like something has improved at Tinder in the – since we spoke 90 days ago, given that – the beat in 4Q and the 1Q guide above the 250K net adds level. And you mentioned, Mandy, product and merchandising changes that drove an uptick in the second half of the quarter. So I guess any additional color on what you're seeing? And then how does the net adds look from a geographic standpoint? Are they coming in kind of across the board? Or is this more on these new markets in Asia? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Good morning, Ross. Let me try to take a stab at that. So as you know, we talked a lot about the large number of expiring six and 12 month packages that we had in Q4 when we had our last call. And what we basically did was we mobilized very hard. We talked over the time about how much, we think, at Tinder there's room for us to make optimizations and drive subscribers, and we were able to do. We mobilized, especially in the back half of the quarter, and made a number of optimizations that really led to significant conversion improvements, brought in more first-time subscribers and resubscribers. And what that did was, basically, help offset a lot of the expiring six and 12 month subscribers. And so instead of coming in under the 200 level, which is what we thought at the time, we were able to get up to 233 sequential net adds in the quarter. So we're very pleased with the progress that we made. And importantly, what it tells us is we're right about our belief that we have a lot of headroom to keep making those kinds of optimizations, whether it's PayWall changes, whether it's more significant changes, the recommendation engine that drives likes and, therefore, increases conversion. All those things on a platform of the scale of Tinder really moved the needle. And we saw that in Q4, and we have optimism that we're going to see benefits from that throughout 2019. And so while we did spend up in marketing at Tinder in the fourth quarter of 2018, that did help drive things, but the real significant driver of the uptick was the optimization work that we did. And what you see is because we had more significant subscriber growth than we were expecting, that higher level of subscribers carried into Q1. And so as a result of that, we're expecting a higher number of subscribers than our kind of typical average in Q1 as well, probably something approaching 300,000-or-so subscribers. And it really is strength across the board. It's not confined to one particular geography, which I think was the last part of your question. It really is strength across the board on conversion and subscriber growth. Okay. Hopefully, that's helpful, Ross. Next question, please.
Operator:
Okay. The next question is from Brandon Ross with BTIG. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross:
Hi, good morning. I actually had one on Hinge. You mentioned its popularity in New York City and London during the prepared remarks. Can you speak to the market share you've seen in those markets and the monetization rates, maybe as a leading indicator for that brand's going? And then maybe what's the strategy for achieving growth from here at Hinge? Is it a city-by-city approach or kind of a national approach? And then just on Tinder, could you just tell us how to really think about subs domestically versus internationally? Any more color you could give on that? Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Sure, okay. Let me start with Hinge. So the first thing I want to say about Hinge is that we've seen Hinge have this incredible product market fit. So what that means is that people just love the product. And if you talk to users who use the products, there's just really strong word-of-mouth marketing because they're just getting great value out of it. And so as a result of that strong product traction, we're seeing organic growth in large cities, cosmopolitan cities, throughout the U.S. New York, certainly, the strength, it's where it started, but in L.A. and Chicago and San Francisco. And then we're also seeing English-speaking international markets where we're seeing either some traction like Toronto and Sydney. We do think that sort of looking ahead at Hinge over time, there is an opportunity to grow in non-English-speaking cities once the app is translated because at this point, it's just in English. Regarding marketing efforts, we're spending on marketing really around brand and elevating the brand Hinge because in New York, a lot of people have heard about it but there's still relatively low awareness in places across the country, and it's really focused on reaching young millennial men and women, mostly in online channels. So that addresses your question of how are you reaching them. And then the question around monetization, we really haven't focused on monetization on Hinge. In fact, if you use the app, it's not easy to come across rate cards. It's just – we have not really spent a lot of our energy. We'll begin spending a little bit more time and focus in the back half of the year. I mean, as we have sort of proven time and time again that we take best practices and real institutional knowledge and bring it to sort of the next business we either acquire or build so we feel confident that we have real opportunity there. And then the last thing I just wanted to mention when it comes to Hinge, there's question about sort of marketing, but it's really around how do we make sure we're constantly improving the product to continue to get that word-of-mouth traction, which is really important as well. So last year, we launched a couple of features that focused on really improving success rates. We met, as an example, that – I can't remember if I talked about it on last call, but what it does is it gives people the ability to tell us what they think of their dates. About two-thirds of people who go on dates participate in the surveys. And it's great because we think it's going to give us, over time, a robust signal for how to take, like, off-line feedback and build it into our matching algorithms. And so for Hinge, we're just – we're really sort of early in the journey, and we feel like this is going to be a great business and a great contributor beyond 2019. Second question, I think you asked around domestic versus international.
Brandon Ross:
Yes, for Tinder.
Mandy Ginsberg:
So let me first say, so domestically, what we've really focused on is the – in the last six months, primarily is college audience. There's 20 million college students in the U.S. We think they're incredibly important audience. They also happen to be vibrant and dating a lot, so very relevant. Turning to international where you see the growth and will continue decision growth, it is a big focus. And I'll touch on a couple of regions. Asia, there’s really social change that's happening in these markets. I mentioned in my remarks that in South Korea and India, we just launched TV ads really to drive increased awareness and we're seeing nice momentum there. And then there are other markets where there's just some really interesting cultural relevance. So Brazil, for example, in the last month or so, the number one pop song on is about media girl on Tinder named Jennifer. And it's been a smash hit, and we've seen a big surge in traffic. But what it tells you is that Tinder is really integrated into the dating culture, and we think there's – we continue to see momentum on that front as well. And then the last thing I'd just say is that not only are we putting marketing dollars into emerging markets, but we're also continuing to put more feet on the streets to make sure that not only can we market from – execute from a marketing standpoint, but we need to continue to adopt the product, everything from login, to profile, to payments geographically, and that's an area that we just haven't focused on until now. And so we do think that the international markets will see momentum in growth, especially since that's where 75% of our addressable audience is.
Brandon Ross:
Thank you.
Operator:
Okay. The next question comes from Eric Sheridan with UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks so much. Given the disclosure of Tinder and sort of non-Tinder revenue in the release in the slides, I'm just curious how you're thinking about that non-Tinder revenue. It's been sort of flattish over the last couple of years. Is that going to be an area we should look for continued stability? Or is that an area where you could possibly put marketing dollars to work to stimulate growth? How those brands fit into the broader portfolio? A good update on all of that would be helpful. Thanks so much.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. So let me take a crack at it, Eric. I think that we've been talking about stability for a while now on the non-Tinder brands, and I think that's very fair to point out. I think we view that as kind of the minimum case that we're going to be able to achieve stability. It was important for us to get to that point, and we've gotten there. And our goal is to get that piece of the business growing again. And I think we can accomplish that late this year and certainly into next year. And so that's the goal, and we're mobilizing on a number of fonts to do that. If you unpack kind of what's going on in the non-Tinder brands a little bit more, I think you can kind of think about it in three components. The first is these new emerging growth businesses that we've been talking about, and I include Hinge in that category, I include Ship in that category, which just launched but shows really good user growth out of the gate. Chispa and BLK as well on the Latino and the African-American side. So we have a number of bets that we've made that we think will be able to drive growth for us aside from Tinder. And then, of course, we have big hopes for Hinge in particular, as Mandy talked about. And then when you look at some of our other brands like OkCupid and PlentyOfFish more domestically, although they're starting to branch out internationally as well. And then you've got Pairs in Japan, which has been growing nicely in a market that's really growing very strongly. So we've got some good growth drivers there as well. And then the third piece of it is the Matches and Meetics of the world that have been tougher on the growth side because of what's been going on, particularly with TV spend, which we've talked about on a number of our calls. And we're doing a lot of product work at Match and Meetic, and we think that will drive improved word-of-mouth. We're also thinking through how to be more effective on the marketing side of those businesses. And the goal is to get those businesses growing again late this year into next, and they can be significant contributors, just given the size of those businesses. So the early signs are that the work we're doing at those brands are starting to pay dividends, but we have a little bit more work to do over the next couple of quarters. And I think you'll start to see the result late this year, and certainly in 2020. So overall, our goal is to have that, at minimum, stability, get to kind of low single-digit growth in those brands and then go from there. And hopefully, we can have those businesses contribute nicely to the overall equation while Tinder continues to power a lot of the growth. And that's kind of how we're thinking about the overall position of the company from a growth – a revenue growth perspective.
Eric Sheridan:
Great, thanks for the color.
Gary Swidler:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Okay. The next question comes from Ben Schachter with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Ben Schachter:
Congratulations on the great execution. Can you talk about the potential to improve commission rates on the mobile app stores? Is there a way for Match to pay fees that would be more in line with traditional subscription models? Or can you go direct in any way to avoid the commission fees? And related to that, Epic Games recently announced that they're going to be hosting a new app store on Android devices that will only charge developers about 12%. Should we expect that you would try to shift some usage there or to other third-party stores that may evolve around there? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks Ben, for the question and for all your good reports on this topic. It's, obviously, a huge topic among developers, given the amount of fees that we pay to Apple and Google. It's something that we're incredibly focused on. If you just look at our Tinder business, at $805 million of revenue in 2018 and growing this year, and you assume we pay pretty close to 30% across the board, it's a massive expense for us. And you know that we make frequent trips to Cupertino to discuss this with Apple and Google as well. And it's something that we are thinking about very carefully. I know that there's a lot of noise being made in the industry, generally by players like Fortnite, by Netflix and the shift that they just announced. So it's something that we're watching incredibly carefully. And it is, of course, not just an issue for us, but it's an issue for everyone. But it's a complicated one. There is certainly real benefits that the stores bring to the table from a distribution standpoint in particular. For our brands, they don't bring us much on the marketing side just because we have such high brand awareness at so many of our brands and the reality is that when people go to the stores, they're searching for a particular app, and so there's not as much benefit. So the 30% to us does feel like a big number compared to the benefits that are being brought, but obviously, as we've sort of a balanced this out, all of our financial assumptions assume that we're going to keep paying that 30% because that's currently the business model. So we're not assuming any relief there but we're watching all these developments, including what you point out as new stores cropping up. And to the extent there are tools that we can use, whether it's new stores, whether it's something else, to reduce the overall 30%, we will certainly focus and try to benefit from that. But so far, we haven't made any significant moves in that direction, but we'll continue to watch this and see how we can benefit from it financially.
Operator:
Okay. The next question comes from Anthony DiClemente with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Anthony DiClemente:
Thanks so much for taking my questions. Just one on monetization products and product pipeline. Usually, you have a new monetization product out in the late summer, let's say the third quarter time frame. I think your prepared remarks suggested you'll not have one this year. So I just wanted to get a little bit more behind that and the strategy or timing of future monetization products? And then maybe one more real quick on competition. Can you just, Mandy, give us a characterization of the competitive landscape domestically and internationally? Couldn't help but see the Bumble Super Bowl ads, and you mentioned Bumble in the prepared remarks and the slide. So is that sort of informing your response in marketing spend at least here in the U.S.? Is that what's – is that part of what's driving the marketing strategy to counteract the competition? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
So, let me give a shot to the first part of your question, Anthony. I think if you look at our Q4 results, which were very strong, it's clear that we're not dependent on a big revenue feature to really drive subs, drive conversion, there's a lot that we can do. And so as we look into 2019, that's going to be a big piece of what we're going to do on the optimization side. And Mandy went through a lot of that in her remarks, so I won't go through it again, but that will be a part of it. We've got some revenue features kind of – what she said was kind of sprinkled throughout the year. So not planning for one big bang in September or something like that as we've done in the last years. It could happen. There's a lot of things on the road map, and we're excited about a lot of different initiatives at Tinder. So we're not committing specifically to that, but we believe we can deliver the number that we put out there without that big bang revenue feature. And we think there'll be incremental things, there'll be things that are a little bit larger than that, and we'll kind of see how the year plays out. But we feel very good about the product pipeline and very good about our ability to deliver what we've said from an outlook perspective without some very significant revenue-specific feature like we've had the last couple of years.
Mandy Ginsberg:
So, let me take the competition one. So if you think about the competition, looking back over my tenure, I mean, it's been a incredibly competitive industry, really in every market. There's a couple of global players. We also see a ton of local players. And the constraint is not building an app, the constraint is really getting to scale. Very few players have done that. Asking about how we view our position in the market, we feel great competitively, just because we've got so many strong products in the category and can compete in both domestically and internationally. And just to step back, if you look at our products, Tinder, for example, is in sort of a league of its own. It grew to scale so significantly and is maintaining great leadership position. And then Hinge, which I talked a little bit about, it's gaining ground, particularly in the sort of serious space, and it is taking share in that serious space market in the domestic market. And we're excited about what we see, and we think it is definitely a contender to continue to increase momentum in a space where Tinder is a little bit younger, a little bit more casual and Hinge is a little bit older and more serious. And then it is other products that we're introducing in international markets, for example, OkCupid, which I mentioned, has showed some interesting traction in India. So we don't think about a single competitor. And you asked me specifically about the Bumble question and the Super Bowl. So I'll tell you, it definitely seems like Bumble is spending a large amount of money and marketing dollars in celebrity endorsements, especially looking at sort of the Super Bowl ad. It's our belief and my belief in particular, as being a career-long marketer, that spending millions and millions of dollars on one ad in our category just doesn't have sustainable impact on the business. And what I can tell, we're looking at, based on U.S. downloads post the Super Bowl and India downloads after a big celebrity push, our belief is reinforced. On the flip side, there are opportunities to grow without big marketing dollars. So OkCupid, with very minimal marketing spend, has seen just really tremendous momentum in the Indian market, which is really exciting by adapting the product and getting people to talk about the product through these really interesting, provocative questions embedded into the product. So it's not always spending a lot of dollars that drive traction, but just spending them in a really smart way. And then that said, we're always evaluating areas of opportunity to invest in marketing, especially to drive awareness for these brands. But as you all know, we are pretty measured and prudent in our marketing approach. Q - Thanks a lot.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
I had a question for Mandy and Gary. For Mandy, you're coming off 30% growth in 2018, yet that growth is staying in the mid-teens in 2019. Can you just talk a little bit about what the assumptions you're taking into play here and the potential headwinds and tailwinds that you're considering? And for Gary, just on North American subs, that was down sequentially in the fourth quarter. It's the first time we've seen that in two years. Can you just talk a little bit about what was the play on that sequential decline in North America?
Gary Swidler:
Sure, why don’t I take a crack at your question? And if I miss something, Mandy can certainly jump in. So if you – first of all, let me handle the North America, subs declined substantially. First of all, it is important to point out that Q4 tends to be our weakest quarter from a seasonality standpoint. So that's a factor in the sequential comparison. But as I pointed out, we did spend down at Match on the marketing side, in particular. And that really is the business that's responsible for the trend that you're noticing. So it's not a Tinder trend, it's a Match trend because of the decline in marketing. And we just think that given both what's going on from a TV efficiency standpoint and also because we're in the middle of making significant product changes, it really wasn't the quarter to go hard on the marketing side at Match. And so we saw the flow-through effect on revenue and subs from that. And as the year progresses and we make the changes in the product we want to make, we'll dial back up marketing and dial back up subs and revenue. So you're probably going to see that trend that you're referring to on the North America subs persist for a quarter or two as we make those changes at Match. And then I think it will rebound nicely as we get towards the end of this year. So that's an important thing, I think, for people to factor in. But we have confidence that that's going to be the trajectory. As far as what we're seeing going from 30% kind of revenue growth in 2018 to what we're saying is mid-teens in 2019, I think there's a few things to keep in mind. First of all, for the year, you've got a significant amount of FX negative impact. So that's just one thing that's out of our control that's probably a 2% or something off growth just from FX impact for the year. So that's a piece of it that's out of our control. Then there's the reality of what happened with Tinder Gold, which was a very unique set of circumstances where we rolled out a product that drove step-function changes in both conversion and ARPU. And while we'll continue to swing for that to happen with other products that we introduced at Tinder and, frankly, across all the brands, you don't see that, that often. So it was a significant jump that led to a massive increase in revenue in 2018, and we'll continue to push for that, but that's not what our base case assumptions are for 2019. And of course, there's also just the law of large numbers. As you look at it, we're now a $1.7 billion base on revenue in 2018. It gets tougher to grow that by 30% as you turn the quarter into 2019. So, those are some of the puts and takes, FX, the Gold effect being two significant ones. When you look at kind of the composition and what's driving revenue growth across the business, as we've been saying for a while now and continues to be the case that Tinder is carrying the load and it's really driving our revenue growth. And so what it's leading to across the company is kind of single-digit ARPU growth and double-digit subscriber growth that leads to that kind of mid-teens revenue growth. But we’ll see how the year progresses. If Tinder is able to drive additional features that really drive more growth, which is certainly possible, I think you could see upside to that number. If the Match and Meetic turnarounds progress faster than what we're currently anticipating, you could see upside to that number. If Hinge monetized more quickly or has more success you could certainly see upside to that number. And the same is true to a smaller extent at the Chispas, BLKs of the world as well, or Ship surprised us as well. So we've got a lot of levers to pull. I think that's the most important thing for people to understand. While Tinder continues to be phenomenal, you've got a lot of different growth levers that are building at the company. And I think that early this year, you won't see as much contribution from the non-Tinder businesses, but as the year progresses, you will. And we'll start to see that sequential improvement in revenue growth on a year-over-year basis as we get through 2019. And the most important thing that I want people to understand is
Brent Thill:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Good morning everyone, two question. Mandy first I think Swipe Surge rolled out late in the year and would love to just hear a little bit more on that product. How you see it rolling out more broadly and globally? And how you're thinking about merchandising? And then second, you spoke a little bit about some of the sort of individual opportunities in the emerging markets, like OkC in India. But just maybe to take it up a little bit of a higher level, could you just review the sort of competitive approach in emerging markets where, in some cases, sort of broader social media apps sort of act as the base layer of the internet as opposed to an operating system or a browser, and some of that social activity kind of bleeds together between dating and family and friends and otherwise? The common question is, Facebook sort of creeps into the market. What are the sort of different dynamics? And how social media and dating apps usage maybe different in emerging markets? And how you approach it? Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay, great. Let me take the first one on Swipe Surge. So Swipe Surge we launched not too long ago globally on IoS. So we still haven't – it's still developing on Android. So we're planning on launching on Androids, which is going to be great because that's a very large portion of our audience. What Swipe Surge is doing is it's, of course – in the product itself, it's telling people when there's high traffic when there's a lot of activity. And as I mentioned, it's kind of like telling people the bar is full or the club is hopping. So once people show up, there's just a lot more activity. And what that activity does is it allows people to increase messaging and increase matches. So we actually see double-digit increase in likes in messaging. And also just the response times are really quick because people are sort of – are in the club or the bar, so to speak. So I think that covers the Swipe Surge question. So let me address the other question you had just around underpenetrated markets and emerging markets. So as I talked about, if you look at the TAM, it's like a huge number. 75% of our market is outside of North America and Europe, which are more mature markets. And what you mentioned, which is you talked about what's happening with social media, but I think even what's more pronounced is that there's this massive cultural shift around dating because you're dealing with people in their 20s, they're the first generation that's dating. Their parents didn't date. And so the phenomenon is really sort of changing things. I'll give you an example. Japan is a really interesting example of this. We've been operating in Japan for, I don't know, a decade or so, maybe more, and it's only been in the last couple of years where we've seen acceleration, and it is due to this eroding stigma. And this also just happens to be a market where there's just people are also willing to pay. And it's also a market, interestingly enough, where people really want to date outside their social circles. And so for each of these markets, we really have to make sure we understand what's happening culturally. And the momentum is there, and for us, it's more about making sure that we're sort of there to capture that momentum. So when it comes to Tinder in some of these markets because we're – they're still early on dating, Tinder is starting to find and leading the conversation around dating, and you see this in several markets. And that's why I do think it's really important as we are in these markets, it's not just about marketing messages but make sure that we start to adapt the product so it's more relevant for these markets that are just sort of early on in the journey.
Operator:
The next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Just on Tinder ARPU maybe, Gary, what's the expectation for ARPU growth in 2019 and kind of key drivers, mix drivers? And then also on Tinder, just a la carte as a percent of total Tinder direct revenue? And then if you can give the mix of a la carte Tinder subs versus nonpaying Tinder users? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. We're running a little bit tight on time, so let me try to answer those questions quickly. On Tinder a la carte, it remains about 30% or so of direct revenue. That's been pretty consistent now for a few quarters, and so that's kind of where we stand there. From an ARPU perspective, I said mid-single digits for Tinder as 2019 happens. I think that's what we're looking at. I think there's a few components of that. We've been able to drive Gold mix up significantly and obviously, that adds to ARPU. I think that will continue to be a component of it. Obviously, as the percentage has gotten higher and higher, it's tougher to drive more and more Gold mix. But I think there's still more room on that front, and that will help drive. On the a la carte front in particular, which you raised, when you think about Tinder, there's really kind of two features on the a la carte side that are really driving things, right, with Boost and Super Likes. And I think you could imagine a much broader, longer menu of a la carte features that could be appealing at Tinder. So that is an area that we're focused on in 2019 and beyond for Tinder. I think there's room there. And then something that we talked about frequently is the ability to optimize price at Tinder. Country-by-country, market-by-market basis, based on a number of factors, I think when we look at it, as we talked about before, pricing is a bit of a blunt instrument at Tinder. We haven't been that refined or sophisticated on it, and we are very sophisticated on it at a number of the other brands. And so we need to get more sophisticated on Tinder. We've got a team focused on that, and I think we'll make good progress on that over 2019. So those are the three drivers I think, that contribute to our confidence that we're going to be able to drive Tinder ARPU up single digits as 2019 progress. So I’m going to leave it there, just given the time, but hopefully, that answers your questions, John.
Gary Swidler:
We appreciate everyone joining the call again this quarter, and we look forward to talking to you all on the next call. Thank you very much.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Lance Barton - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Mandy Ginsberg - Chief Executive Officer Gary Swidler - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Brent Thill - Jefferies Douglas Anmuth - JP Morgan Ross Sandler - Barclays Dan Salmon - BMO Capital Eric Sheridan - UBS Kunal Madhukar - Deutsche Bank
Operator:
Good morning. And welcome to the Match Group Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode [Operator Instructions]. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions [Operator Instructions]. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I’m joined on the call by our CEO, Mandy Ginsberg and CFO, Gary Swidler. They will review the third quarter investor presentation that is available on our IR Web site and then will open it up for questions. But before we start, I’d like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as, we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Mandy.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Thank you, Lance and good morning everyone. At the outset, I think it’s worth pointing out that this was our fourth consecutive of year-over-year top line growth, exceeding 25% and we are in pace for full year revenue growth of about 30%. As we have discussed previously, the comps do get tougher for us starting in Q4, since our last year’s Q4 was the full quarter attributable, but we have a lot of exciting of what's happening at Tinder and across the portfolio that I will talk about today, which I expect will enable us to continue driving our growth for 2019 and beyond. And Gary is going to talk you through the details on our financial performance and outlook. So with that let’s start with Tinder on Slide 4. Tinder remains the center piece of our growth story. Direct revenue at Tinder was up nearly 100% in the third quarter compared to last year and subscribers grew 61% and ARPU rose 24%. Even though we launched Tinder Gold over a year ago, it continues to have a meaningful impact on the business. More than 60% of the 4.1 million subscribers on Tinder are now Gold subscribers, up from 50% plus in the second quarter. One strategy to increase Gold subscriber penetration is to add more features to Gold subscription package, making it even more compelling to our users. In early Q3, we started testing Picks, which is an incremental feature that we introduced as part of the Gold package to enhance our subscription. Picks provide Gold subscribers with a personalized daily list of interesting users. We rolled Picks out to all Tinder users in September. This has helped drive more users to sign up for Gold subscription level, leading to an increase in ARPU since Gold comes at a premium price. This implementation of Picks resulted in increased ARPU but less of a conversation benefit. As is any new revenue feature, we will continue to refine our implementation and balance the trade-off between ARPU and the number of additional subscribers. As we have said before, ultimately, the goal of Tinder is to maximize revenue not drive a particular KPI, and we continue to accomplish that very effectively. Last quarter, I talked about how our under the hood product initiatives have led to improved out performance, user outcomes and monetization. We are particularly focused on improving success rates for customers, including optimizations like what potential matches they are shown by our recommendation engine and the post match messaging experience. Let’s take one example on matching. In New York City, people base in much higher radius than for example Austin, Texas. In cities and places like Brazil and India, specific neighborhoods has to be taken into consideration, small improvements to the recommendation engine taking into account the new characteristics of specific locations to potential matches, can increase match rates meaningfully. And match rates are a critical driver of engagement. In fact, getting a match on day of the user experience is single most important driver of the user retention. We also think there's role opportunity to drive revenue optimization. We are still early on at Tinder when it comes to testing price elasticity, specifically at a country-by-country level. We believe that we can also drive revenue by fine tuning our merchandizing in areas such as how and when to show either gold class or al carte pay. Given this opportunity, there is a real focus on all these optimizations on the product roadmap. Turning to slide five, we highlight two product innovations at Tinder. They’re both showing promising improvements and engagements. The first is Tinder U, which we launched in late August and is now available at over 1,200 colleges and universities throughout the U.S. Tinder U is a student only experience inside the Tinder app, to give students user access to the full suite of product features, while facilitating in our actions directly with other college students on their campuses or on campuses nearby. We created Tinder U to both attract new college students to the Tinder experience and reengage students who have been part of the Tinder community in the past. Ultimately, we see it as a way to deliver more value to the college user by providing more relevant recommendations, which helps to increase engagement. We’ve seen strong early traction with Tinder U, both in terms of driving higher flight rates and higher retention. On the right side of the slide, I want to rest the progress we have made on our user feed. We first launched the feed to all Tinder users in March. It was aimed at enhancing the post match experience to facilitate users starting more conversations with their matches. The feed gives users better glimpse into their matches' lives, and showcases people's passion and adventures, leading to better conversation and deeper connections. After the initial successful launch, we have been adding more content and context to the feeds. This continues to drive increased engagement and better outcomes for our users. Conversations triggered by feed are noticeably longer, higher quality and result in about 35% more offline connections. This is by no means an exhaustive list of all the product innovation underway at Tinder. Our work on location based features continues as well. In addition, we began localizing the product as evidenced by our recent launch of My Move in India, which enables single users to decide whether they want to be the first one to initiate the conversation. Slide 6, demonstrates how marketing has been deployed to reinforce our brand and product messaging and momentum. Our marketing efforts on college campuses began in March with 64 schools competing for a chance to host a Cardi B concert. That momentum from the spring semester has continued as we have leveraged social media influencers, on campus brand ambassadors and digital channels to support the launch of Tinder U product when students come back to school in the fall. As a result, college age users are now the fastest growing demographic in the Tinder ecosystem in the U.S. This is incredibly important as we want Tinder to stay fresh, exciting and relevant in this young and trend setting audience. Tinder has also launched its first ever brand marketing campaign. Tinder was such phenomenal at launch and spread so quickly that the market defining brand versus the business defining the brands. Tinder particularly resonated with 18 to 25 years old, because it provides a fine and easy way to meet people. Tinder sometimes gets the bad rep for being casual. But keep in mind that people in their late teens and early 20s are not looking to settle down. It is trying to date, explore and discover yourselves while meeting lots of people and being social. It's all about the single journey and Tinder reflects the way this group meets and socializes. The new marketing campaign is centered around celebrating the single lifestyle of this generation. The campaign can be seen on billboards across number of major cities throughout the U.S., as well as on digital channels. We've also started publishing content relevant to the single lifestyle, such as stories and tips related to dating, style, travel and food, with the aim of further reinforcing how Tinder can enable users to make them most of this fun and adventurous time in their life. Turning to next Slide. Tinder isn't the only brand we are investing in as we see opportunity for long term growth in many of our other brands. Last quarter, I spent time talking about how we are making investments and growing the business internal incubation and M&A and that work continues. If you look on Slide 7, you can see many of the product and marketing related investments we are making across the portfolio in our existing brands. High awareness brands like Match and Meetic are undergoing a product refresh, designed to increase value for the premium and high intent users. These changes provide better outcomes and value for our subscribers by improving algorithms, reducing cluttered ads and including add-ons that we historically charge for separately in the subscription package. In addition, we are investing in customer service to provide a higher experience for these premium users. We also continue to right size our marketing spends at these two brands to reflect the current reality of declining TV viewership and efficiency of TV advertising in general. Given that we have been reducing our TV spend, we expect short-term pressure on subscribers at Match and Meetic. However, there are early signs that indicate our enhancements to the customer experience are leading to improved organic registrations due to stronger word-of-mouth marketing. We are optimistic that these organic trends will eventually offset pressure from the reduced TV spend. At a number of our smaller brands, we are seeing positive growth trends. At OkCupid, registration growth has been strong and markets exposed to our provocative ad campaign. And as a result, we expanded this campaign into a number of key cities throughout the U.S. last quarter. On the product side, OkCupid has always had a strong and thought provoking personality as it ask polarizing, lifestyle style and political questions of its users. For example, OkCupid recently asked questions related to the Supreme Court appointment process, legalization of marijuana and exercising the rights vote during yesterday's midterms. We've elevated these questions and the product experience in a modern and dynamic way, and it is resonating well with our user base. OkCupid has traditionally been a U.S. focused brand, primarily because so much of the brand image has been tied to these provocative, political and lifestyle questions that may not always be relevant globally. Despite this, OkCupid has seen moderate organic growth in a handful of non-U.S. markets, including India. We've recently made some adjustments to the product to tailor the app, particularly the questions, to the Indian audience. We are in the early testing phase to see whether OkCupid can gain traction in the market, which has an enormous potential. The early momentum we've previously highlighted at Chispa, our Latino focused app continued in Q3, and we started testing monetization on the platform through al carte purchases. We're particularly encouraged by the efficiency we're seeing a marketing spend aimed at attracting young Latina and Hispanic women. In our category such efficiencies typically translate to a big boost in ecosystem and bode well for long-term growth. And Japan, our Pairs business is one of the top after the market and continues to grow strongly as we expand our marketing efforts. We believe there is real potential for future growth in Japan as the category stigma continues overtime. In Europe, we are building share in the 50 plus segment for the OurTime brand in key markets. This has been a long underserved demographic in the region and the team there has done a great job at aggressively pursuing that opportunity. Last but not least, turning to Slide 8. Due to overview of the momentum we are seeing at hand, which will be a big area of investment for us for the rest of this year and into 2019. The product itself has been able to capture the lightweight approach inherent in mobile first apps like Tinder while managing to provide a depth that higher intent users are accustom to on brands such as Match and OkCupid. There is a strong product market for Hinge in a previously underserved audience of 20-something looking for serious relationships. The Hinge profile in the U.S. is clean and simple and encourages users to be more thoughtful in their initial conversations. Hinge's product has really resonated in the market and proof of that product efficacy is in the numbers. Hinge downloads have increased 5 times since we made our initial investment in the company. Hinge had a stronger presence in New York City and is gaining traction in major cities throughout the U.S. and in global cultural centers, such as London. We see real opportunity to invest meaningful dollars in both the product and marketing at Hinge to drive long term growth. Before I hand things over to Gary, I want to emphasize that we have a diverse portfolio of leaning products in growing global categories where singles are increasingly using multiple products. We have the resources and the expertise to invest smartly to further differentiate ourselves from those competing against us in the heavily fragmented and competitive landscape. We are executing on our plans as we head into 2019, and we look forward to extending our exciting line of Tinder, continuing our long history of product innovation and driving growth by enhancing our brands around the world, all while delivering for our shareholders. And with that, I'll turn the floor over to Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks Mandy. We had a phenomenal Q3 and I am going to review the details of our performance and then provide our outlook for Q4, as well as some preliminary thoughts on 2019. So let's jump right in. On Slide 10, you can see that average subscribers reached nearly 8.1 million in Q3, up 23% year-over-year. North America grew average subscribers 18% and international 29% year-over-year. Tinder's rapid growth has a bigger impact on our international business, because it’s a bigger piece of the pie internationally. Tinder drove our growth again this quarter with aggregate stability at our other brands. Tinder added 1.6 million average subscribers year-over-year, a 61% growth rate and 344,000 sequentially. Tinder's sequential subscriber growth was stronger than we'd expected as Gold continued to power the business, Picks enhance Gold's appeal and product optimizations began to bear fruit. Tinder Gold helped by Picks drove Tinder ARPU up 24% year-over-year and overall company higher by 6% year-over-year, up $0.03 to $0.57. ARPU expanded both domestically and internationally. International ARPU is unfavorably impacted by strength in the U.S. dollar compared to certain international currencies. On a constant currency basis, international ARPU would have been up 11% to $0.57. On a constant currency basis, Company ARPU would have been up $0.04 or 8%. Looking to Slide 11, you can see that the subscriber and ARPU growth led to total revenue of $144 million for the quarter, year-over-year growth of 29%. Excluding FX impact of $8 million, total revenue would have been $452 million, 32% year-over-year growth. We demonstrated strength in direct revenue in Q3 with growth of 31%; North America grew direct revenue 25%; international, where Tinder comprises larger portion, was up 38%. One stop to spot was indirect revenue, which declined 7% year-over-year. We had a decline in impression at the non-Tinder brands coupled with an impact from GDPR on our ad sales in Europe. In terms of overall EBITDA, we saw year-over-year growth of 38% in Q3 to $165 million due to the revenue growth and operating leverage. EBITDA margins expanded 2 points year-over-year, continuing a solid trend to 37%. Overall expenses as a percent of revenues were 68% in Q3, down from 73% in the prior year quarter. Of particular note in sales and marketing expense for the quarter, declining to 24% of revenue from 28% in Q3, 2017, reflecting the ongoing shift to brands like Tinder and OkCupid with relatively lower marketing spend as a percentage of revenues. We did spend up in total dollars on marketing in the quarter, driven by increases at Tinder, as well as paired OkCupid and Hinge. Product development costs increased by $7 million in the quarter, largely due to increased headcount at Tinder as we continue to invest in that business and investments in some of our other brands as well. Increased litigation expense and some costs related to the acquisition of Hinge were two unforeseen items that we incurred in Q3. These aggregated to $4 million. Total stock based comp expense, which is included in each category of expense, was $16 million. Q3 '18 SBC expense was down 19% from the prior year quarter, which included an unusually large settlement SBC charge. SBC expense for Q3 '18 was in line with our expectations. Operating income grew 54% in Q3 to $140 million, driven by the higher revenues and reduced operating expenses as a percent of revenue, partly offset by higher in-app fees. The operating income growth rate exceeded our EBITDA growth rate due to lower stock based comp expense. Operating income margins rose 5 point to 32% compared to 27% in Q3, 2017. On Slide 12, you can see that we are announcing a special dividend of $2 per share of Match Group common stock and Class B common stock. The dividend will be paid December 19th to shareholders of record as of December 5th. We constantly analyze various ways to return capital to our shareholders. The dividend is something that we’ve been contemplating for some time and we felt that now is the right time to provide capital return to shareholders by this method. To fund the $2 per share special dividend, we intend to use cash on hand, which was $403 million as of 9/13/18 and has grown since, as well as the meaningful debt capacity we have. This could include a draw on our revolver and/or new issuance of unsecured or secured debt. You can see from the top right chart on Slide 12 that our leverage has declined noticeably over the last three year since our IPO from over 4 times to 2 times. Our target growth leverage is 2.5 to 3 times. We started the year in this range, but we’re now well below. So we have plenty of room to finance a portion of the dividend, M&A and potential future return of capital. We would go above the range for compelling M&A, assuming a reasonable deleveraging period. The business has generated $404 million of free cash flow year-to-date, up 94% year-over-year. At that rate, the dividend is just over 12 months of free cash flow generation. Our number one priority when we think about capital allocation is to invest in our businesses for growth as we’re doing across the Company. Even so, we have significant excess cash to deploy. Our second priority is accretive M&A. M&A is a core part of our DNA and we’ve always been a disciplined acquirer. We intend to continue to pursue M&A vigorously across the globe but because to this point we haven’t deployed a large amount of cash for M&A, we are retuning some of our cash to shareholders as a dividend. We believe the special dividend is evident that we're responsible stewards of capital who deliver on our promises. At the time of the IPO, we said we would de-lever and we've done exactly that. We're confident that we have sufficient flexibility to do what we need to do; to invest in our business and to make acquisitions to further strengthen our portfolio, when compelling opportunities present themselves. In the future, we expect to continue to apply the same analytical framework and rigor to our capital allocation decisions. On the bottom right of Slide 12, you can see the year-to-date and 2018 we've spent $86 million to buy back just over 2 million shares under our 6 million share authorization as we continue to offset dilution from employee equity award exercises and take advantage of the occasional dislocation in our stock price. The average price of repurchases year-to-date is $42.85. If you then add the $560 million that we expect for the special dividend, the $86 million spent on buybacks, we'll have returned $646 million of capital to shareholders in 2018. On Slide 13, we discuss our outlook. For Q4, we expect revenue of $44 million to $450 million, or 17% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. We expect Tinder continue to be the revenue growth driver with aggregate stability at our other brands as has been the case all year. I want to point out that anticipated FX impacts have reduced our expected revenue for Q4 since our last earnings call by about $6 million. We expect indirect revenues to continue to feel the effects of GDPR and lower impression volume, as well as some changes to the economics of our fan arrangements. The lower impressions are primarily driven by product changes we are making at the non-Tinder brands. We expect $165 million to $170 million EBITDA in Q4 and margin of 37.5% at the midpoint of our ranges. There are a few notable items that are contributing to the lower EBITDA growth rate and margin than we typically see in Q4. In this year's Q4, we expect year-over-year marketing spend to be up by about 20%, driven primarily by Tinder. As Mandy discussed, we have two major marketing campaigns underway at Tinder; one for Tinder U and the other, the broader brand campaign. We're also increasing marketing spend at a few of our other brands, including Hinge to continue to drive awareness in major U.S. markets and Pairs in Japan. Our Q4 outlook also reflects an additional $3 million of expense related to litigation, including our intellectual property claim against Bumble and the Tinder lawsuit. We strongly believe our IP is worth protecting. We believe that Tinder law suit is without merit and we have moved to dismiss it, but defending it does have a P&L impact. We expect that Q4 Tinder average subscribers will increase somewhat less sequentially than they typically have, which has been in the 200,000 to 250,000 range. The reasons for this are a combination of two items. First is the anniversary of the largest surge of Tinder Gold subscribers from Q4 last year. All the subscribers from that surge who took 12 months or two successive six month packages, will be expiring subscribers in Q4 '18, so terminations will be much higher than typical. Second, the way we have merchandised Picks has thus far been to drive ARPU through higher Goal take up, not increase the number of new subscribers. As a result, there will not be sufficient subscriber editions offset the large increase in terminations. Tinder will continue to drive its ARPU higher, albeit at a less dramatic pace than has been the case recently. As the subscriber mix continues the trend gradually towards our higher price Gold subscription tier. For the full year 2018, we expect to come very close to the $1.72 billion top end of our revenue range. This reflects the strong performance we've experienced year-to-date and our outlook for Q4. It's notable that our revenue range began the year as $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion. So we are very pleased with how the year has played out. In terms of EBITDA, we expect to come within $5 million of the top-end of our previously outlook for the full year. There are two items I want to point out, which are impacting EBITDA compared to our prior outlook. The first is the increase in the litigation cost, which can be very difficult to estimate since the timing and intensity of litigation is unpredictable by its nature. The second is the Q3 cost related to the acquisition of Hinge. The total of these two items is $7 million for full year 2018. Even with these items, we are pleased with the meaningful margin expansion and we are on pace to deliver in 2018. Recall that our initial 2018 EBITDA outlook was $550 million to $600 million. We expect SBC for the full year 2018 to be between $65 million and $70 million, slightly below our initial outlook of $70 million. As we look ahead to 2019, we are optimistic that we can continue to deliver strong financial performance. Similar to what we said at this time last year, we believe we will be able to deliver top-line growth in the mid-teens. We expect Tinder's growth to remain the story in 2019. The step change created by Tinder Gold will be difficult to replicate, but we plan to optimize and innovate on the product and enhance our marketing efforts, especially internationally, to drive continued strong growth at this iconic global brand. We expect that work we are doing on both product features and on optimizations will lead to sequential increases in Tinder average subscribers to return to Tinder's typical levels in 2019 compared to the lower level that we in Q4, 2018. We expect the non-Tinder brands to remain fairly stable in aggregate in 2019. As Mandy detailed, we are making product and marketing investments in a number of these brands to drive longer term growth. In particular, we expect to be investing heavily in Hinge, which we believe is a differentiated product experience that will be a long term growth driver for us. We expect Hinge to reduce our EBITDA by $25 million in 2019 as we ramp marketing spend to build share in key markets. In the current environment, we do expect regulatory compliance and litigation costs to continue to rise. As I already mentioned, these costs are difficult to predict and we currently expect they could total additional $10 million to $15 million in 2019. Long term, we are confident that 40% plus margins remain attainable for the Company. In fact, we're making more progress towards this goal in 2018 than we had anticipated. We're still in the midst of our planning process for 2019, and we'll provide much more specificity regarding our outlook for '19 on our next earnings call. In closing, we've had a stellar first three quarters of 2019. We're investing in our businesses to drive growth for the long term. We believe that as we continue to scale, we can become increasingly profitable. In fact, few tech companies offer the growth, margin and free cash flow profile that we do. We also continue to demonstrate that we're responsible stewards of capital, evidenced by today's announcement of a significant return of capital to shareholders by a special dividend. We continue to look to expand our TAM and market share globally, either through M&A or by developing new products. And we have the resources and track to do so. With that, we'll now answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open the line to questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Mandy, as you think about the non-Tinder brands going forward. What growth do you expect for that portfolio as we head into 2019? And I had a quick follow up for Gary on the softness in the fourth quarter guide. If you could just parse out how much of that impact is external rather than any fundamental slowdown in the business? Thank you.
Mandy Ginsberg:
So, the first part of the question, we’re seeing nice strengths at Pairs in Japan, which we’ve talked about in OkCupid and POF. And in terms of the future upside and where we see opportunity. We talked about Hinge which we're excited about and plan on real investment, both on the marketing and product side. And then smaller brands like Chispa where we see real opportunity to address a different demo. And then our time has been this underserved audience, particularly in Europe where we think there is opportunity as well. When we think about -- it’s really under three buckets; the first one is new products, and Hinge is an example of that and some of the other incubators that we’ve talked about in the past; new demos, which is like the Chispa example; and then new geos, which Pairs is an example, but we’re also -- we think that the international market is very promising. We’ve learned a lot about those markets in the last couple of years, particularly with Pairs strength and Tinder strength and understanding dating dynamics in those markets. And we think that that’s still a relatively under-penetrated part of the world, particularly in Southeast Asia and South America. And think there is real upside in these markets as social norms are changing. And the last thing I'd point out is that the Match and new Picks is part of our portfolio, despite the fact that we are being prudent in reducing TV spend and we’re not seeing efficiency. We think we can get those businesses back to growth after 2019.
Gary Swidler:
And then Brent if you talk about what we’re looking at in Q4. We don’t consider it to be a negative at all. In fact, we look at it at the top end of our range, which as you pointed out in lot of your reports we’ve been doing better than the top end of our ranges. But if you look at the top end of the range, I think we’re trying to achieve that 19% year-over-year growth. So while it’s not as strong as the growth we’ve achieved the last three, four quarters as Mandy pointed out, we’ve got tough comps from Tinder Gold over that period of time. So now that we’re back to a more normal period, 19% growth is top end still looks pretty good to us and we’d be excited to deliver that. So we feel good about how we’re positioned. If you take the top end of the range of $450 million and you add that from a revenue perspective to what we’ve done so far, you end up just slightly above the top end of our range for the full year at $1.723 billion. So, we feel good about delivering beyond the top end and remembering of course that we’ve raised the guidance range for the year twice as the year has gone on. And that’s all despite a good amount of FX in the back half of the year. Since we guided last time, we have about $6 million of additional FX impact on that Q4 number. So, despite that FX impact we still feel we’re positioned to deliver strong guidance in Q4 and for the year as a whole. So when we look at how the business is performing, we’re very pleased. It’s not organic slowdown or any other organic effects that you'd be concerned about. The business is performing very strongly. There is some FX, which obviously we can’t do anything about other companies are facing the same issue. And I think if you look at year-over-year probably going to be about $8 million of FX effect in Q4 on a year-over-year basis. So, that’s the external impact.
Operator:
The next question comes from Douglas Anmuth with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Douglas Anmuth:
I have two questions. Can you talk about the adoption that you’re seeing in Tinder Picks relative to the early trends you saw at Gold last year? Just how should we think about the potential impacts on both net adds ARPU in 4Q and as you go into 2019. And then just second on the special dividend hoping you can just elaborate a little bit more online as to right time, talk about your thought process there. And just in terms of your special dividend versus obviously continuing with the share repurchase program that you have been doing? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Douglas. It's a little hard to hear you. So I'm going to repeat the questions. The first -- the second one was actually about the dividend and why now and how we think about it. I'm going to take that one first and the other one was on Picks and what we're seeing on Picks. On the dividend, which I tried to go through in my script in as much detail as I could about our thought process related that, obviously, something we've been thinking about for a long time. We thought about carefully. For a while now, a number of quarters we've been getting questions, from investors, from analysts about capital allocation, what are you going to do, your leverage levels are down and how are you thinking about that. It's a constant topic that we hear about all the time. And I think we've been pretty clear. We've been looking at M&A opportunities around the globe. And we've considered some fairly seriously. But we haven't found one that we thought made economic sense. And seller expectations are very elevated, the market has been at high levels, and we decided not to stretch for those M&A opportunities. And so we built a lot of cash, the business is extremely cash generative. And we ended a quarter about $400 million. Fourth quarter is an even stronger cash flow quarter for us. We're probably sitting around $460 million of cash right now. So the questions are going to be loud again. But what are we going to do with the cash? And as we look at it, having not accomplished the major M&A deal, we spent a modest amount on Hinge, but other than that, we haven't really done anything on the M&A side to this point rather than sit on it -- sit on the cash as a lot of tech companies do. We said we should give that cash back to the shareholders. We'll build up more cash into 2019. I'm very confident we have the flexibility we need to do M&A to invest in the business and do everything we need to do. So the question is sitting on $400 plus million of cash, what do you do with it? When you look at our ability to do buyback, it's constrained at those levels. We can't put $400 million or $500 million into buybacks given the size of our flow. So that's not a realistic outlook. We're still doing ordinary course buybacks and we'll continue to do that. But from a perspective of returning a lot of capital to shareholders, we thought the dividend clearly was the most logical way to go. Most of it will come out of cash on hand but we have the opportunity to go into the debt markets. And if they stay favorable here post elections, raise money to help fund the dividend at very favorable rates on a historical basis. And I think we'll look back and say, we were happy to have raised that debt capital at the rates that currently prevail in the market. So, we'll probably go out and raise $300 or so million of debt, take our leverage levels back up to the place that we think they should be in that 2.5 and 3 times gross leverage and go from there. I don't think it changes one thing regarding the growth outlook of the company, or its flexibility to invest in the business or do M&A. So, that's how we think about the dividend. In terms of Picks, I think that people have to distinguish a little bit between what we expected from Picks versus how we thought about Gold. Gold was this step function event. It's a feature embedded first in Gold, Likes You that's very effective for users. Users like that feature a lot. And we saw massive uptake of Gold and massive increases in conversion as a result of Likes You. We had much more modest expectations for Picks. We think it's a feature that people -- it still resonates with people but it was not going to have the same as Gold. We've known that that's what's been -- what's baked into our guidance and our expectations for the year and into 2019. And it has been brought out not as much as a conversion driver, but it's something that enhances the value of the ARPU -- of the Gold subscription package to users. And as a result of that drives ARPU. You see how much ARPU continues to rise at Tinder and at the Company as more than 60% of people are now taking the Gold package. We're seeing massive improvement in ARPU. I think it's up probably 40% or so since we rolled out the Gold package four-five quarters ago. So significant increase in value of the subscribers we're seeing at Tinder. So as a result of that, you don't see as bigger lift in the number of subscribers but you see revenue impact and ARPU impact from Picks having been rolled out. And this is a feature that we'll continue to refine. I think the second feature is always a little bit harder than the first feature to refine, because you've got a lot of different effects going on in the business. Tinder has become a bit more complicated from that standpoint to manage all the pieces of monetization. But we're working hard at that and it's only been out for a number of weeks. And I think as we go forward, we'll find some ways to continue to optimize Picks, to optimize the overall center monetization efforts and to we continue to maximize revenue, it's something that we're very good at. So we feel very good about where Picks stands. We've got this effect of the significant number of terminations coming from people who were in the surge of Gold last year in the fourth quarter. That surge will see some of the 12 monthers, or some of the people who took a couple of six month packages terminate. And so I think you'll see that effect working through subscriber additions at Tinder in Q4 of this year. And then I think I'd said we're on pace to add somewhere between 200 to 250 adds at quarter at Tinder, so 800,000 to 1 million subs next year, which we think is going to be a phenomenal number.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ross Sandler with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Gary, one quick follow up on the answer you just provided. So, can you just walk us through the package mix at Tinder? How many of the subs there are these six months rolling programs or 12 months versus the monthly. And there is a dynamic, just to be clear, that will drop low 200,000 for 4Q and then rebound to 200 to 250 as we get into 1Q. Just want to clarify that. And then second question it looks like Facebook has introduced the dating product into a second market recently and this is the first call we've had since the initial market launch. So just any update on what your thoughts are on that product and the competitive environment. Do we still perceive this to be largely benign? And then on the guidance, you mentioned some changes at TAM impacting 4Q. So just elaborate on what those changes were? I know you guys recently signed a partnership with Google. So just what's the ad opportunity going forward with all these changes happening on the ad side? Thank you.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Ross, let me take Facebook first and then Gary can follow up with the others. So basically as you mentioned launch in Columbia. Columbia is a pretty small market for us. That said, Tinder is still the number one dating app there in terms of both downloads and revenue and we've been looking pretty closing, obviously, at all the metrics pre the Facebook launch in Colombia and post. Everything from downloads, activity engagement, new users and we have not seen any impact on the business. Like I said, it's small but we still don't see any impact. We're keeping a close eye on the product, both from an advantage point of consumers down in Colombia, as well as keeping an eye on what Facebook is introducing in the product. And really nothing changes our view, I mentioned a couple of quarters ago. So not surprising that we don’t see an impact in Colombia just because we said we don’t think Tinder users are going to lead Tinder to go to Facebook. We also think that our business was -- we have 1,500 people around the globe and our single focus is really on this category, which we think gives us an advantage, enables us to compete, not just with small players in this pretty fragmented market but also with large scale players. So, we feel confident.
Gary Swidler:
I think on the fan question, Ross, let me just take that one. You got away with the Facebook. I think a couple of things. One, we’ve gotten some attention for what we’ve done with Google on the ad side. We did it in Europe to use their tool on a piece of our direct programmatic sales. So it’s a small piece of ad tech with Google. It’s not a fundamental change, doesn’t really impact our fan relationship. So I think people maybe are reading a little bit more into that than they should. With fans specifically, we had a very favorable economic arrangement with fan for a while. They had the ability to alter that arrangement if they so chose, and now they have chosen to make some alternations to that and reduce some of the economic attractiveness to us of that arrangement. And so we have different options to try to offset that, and we’re trying to figure out what, if anything, we want to do to try to offset that. There is obviously the other players in market we can go with, there is other things that we can do. So we’ll see what’s going to happen and you’re seeing some of that impact in Q4 and obviously, our plan is to try to find ways to offset that impact as we turn the corner into 2019. On the Tinder subscribers, a couple of things. One, I would say it varies by channel, by platform, whether it’s iOS, Android, once a precise breakdown is in one monthers versus six monthers versus 12 monthers. But one monthers do tend to be very heavy just given the demographic. I would guess, it’s an 80% one monthers 20%, 12 and six monthers if you want to look for an average, it's something like that. But the thing that you need to understand is that given how many subscribers were added in Q4 of last year with that 20% ish six month and 12 month package take up. All of that comes up for renewal now and the renewal rates on this are going to continue to be strong, they've been beating our expectations all year. But you do see a big of terminations from people who took those initial six -- the initial 12 or the 2. 6 pace and it’s enough to offset what would otherwise be pretty good sub-additions number in the fourth quarter. So that’s just ebb and the flow of additions and terminations and what we’re dealing with, it’s a onetime effect from the surge of a year ago, nothing more to read into it than that. We'll deal with it as one of the KPIs we look at in Q4 and then we go right back to strong additions and starting in Q1 and beyond as we get pass this hell of terminations in Q4. And so you heard the guidance right. We’re going to have this onetime decline a little bit below our averages in Q4 and then back into the range of averages and more typical numbers starting in Q1 and going through next year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Dan Salmon with BMO Capital. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Maybe one for Mandy one for Gary. Mandy, just to build on what we just came off of -- couple of specific comments about Facebook's products in Columbia and your relationship with the modern advertising basis. And obviously you advertise on their properties for your product, so it's a dynamic relationship. Just high level, how are you thinking about that these days as these changes in the marketplace continue to evolve? And then Gary, you reiterated the view that you can still get to 40% plus margins eventually. When we look at Tinder and see the branding campaign there. Is that something that you anticipated along the way? Is that view to 40% margins changing certain things, looking a little better, a little bit worse, would love to just hear you expand on that a little bit more. Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
I'll take the Facebook questions. We've had a long relationship in history with Facebook in a couple of different areas. The first one is we advertise on their platforms with businesses, particularly like Match and Meetic. If you look at across all of our companies across the Match group portfolio, it's still a pretty small percentage of our registration, like around mid single-digits. So there's not a lot of dependency there and we're continuing to advertise. And until it doesn't make sense, we will continue to do so as these platforms are reached to reach potential new users. On the product side, in the past there has definitely been more connectivity between Facebook in particular businesses like Tinder where the only way over a year ago to sign up on Tinder was through Facebook. And we have looked hard at the dependencies, especially as Facebook announced they're moving into dating to make sure that we do not have those dependencies. And across all of our platforms, we know offer all users the ability to sign up through SMS or through an e-mail. And I talked about a couple of quarters ago that people coming into Tinder, more than 75% of them are opting to sign up through SMS. And so we don't see a lot of concern in those dependencies. And the last one, which we've talked about before is that Facebook audience network and the relationship we've had in the past. And for now it's working and there's lots of other opportunities and partners that we can work with. And so we don't really see much of a dependency. And so for right now, I think a little bit wait and see and we'll continue to manage and run the relationship until it makes sense -- it doesn't make sense for us in those areas.
Gary Swidler:
Dan, on the margin question, I've got a lot of confidence that we're going to get this business to 40% or better margins over time. I think there's tremendous operating leverage, particularly at Tinder where the margins are going to be very, very strong over time. They're strong already. So I feel that good about it. Our job is to make these tradeoffs between longer term investments that might be hurtful to margins but long-term beneficial verses not. If you look at Hinge, for example, that's the place where we're going to invest significant dollars in 2019. And it's going to hurt margins but we think there's massive long-term opportunity there and we want to invest into that. So, that's our job is to make those allocation decisions and we're going to keep doing that. If you look at '18, we had significant -- we're on pace to have very significant margin expansion, probably 2 points, which is more than we had expected this year. So we're over delivering in 2018. I think 2019 is going to be more modest than that. But again, we've got to balance out the opportunity with Hinge, the opportunity Pairs, new brands that we're working on that we think there's real opportunity with that we'll invest in. We've got a number of different things that we're trying to do on the investment side. So that's who we've been entrusted to do. We obviously take that seriously but long-term feel extremely confident that we can get this business to 40%. It's just going to be a question of what the pace is. And again, I think it was faster in '18 and we'll see what '19 brings and we'll certainly guide more specifically on that when we get to our next call. The only other thing I want to add, Dan, is on Tinder specifically what you asked about, marketing campaign, the brand campaign was expected. All of Tinder's marketing spend in '18 we had anticipated. We knew Q3, Q4 were going to be heavy marketing spending quarters. So there is no surprise there different than the pattern that we normally do from a marketing perspective maybe, but we had fully expected that. I would say that at Tinder as we turn into '19, I will be surprised if marketing expense grew faster than revenue. I think more likely than not, it's going to grow slower. We've got a lot of international opportunities at Tinder and we'll see if we can drive that with marketing if we can, we would spend into that. But I would expect that that trend will be such that marketing spend at Tinder will start to come down as a percentage of Tinder's revenues.
Operator:
The next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Just on Hinge, how many subs did you have in ending the third quarter and how should we think about the potential for Hinge sub adds with marketing investment next year. And just longer term thinking about Hinge, if you can frame it up a little bit more. And then just on Tinder, any thoughts on potential release from app store fees or take rates? Thank you.
Mandy Ginsberg:
So Hinge is pretty early in its monetization and so it has a small number of subscribers. In terms of where it sits into the portfolio for us, we think it addresses a great gap in the market. If you think about -- when Tinder came into the market six years ago, it brought whole new audience of young users, in particular college age users. And as they start to age and they're now in their mid-20s and getting a little bit older, having a product that’s oriented to serious but in mid to late 20s, I think it is really compelling for us. And then I'd say we're excited about the growth of Hinge. We've seen great download growth, which you've all seen and also phenomenal user growth. And the plan right now is that we are going to be investing in marketing, because for Hinge despite the fact that like New York, for example, there is very, very high awareness, there are so many places around the country where there is low awareness. And we know when people hear about it and try it, they love the product and it get that flywheel going in terms of word of mouth marketing. So it's a combination of really making sure that that young audience is aware and making sure it exposed to places where it's just not as much awareness of Hinge. In terms of monetization and subscription growth, the plan is that as we start investing in marketing in Q4 and really drive that growth into next year, we're also going to start testing and getting a little bit more aggressive with monetization probably into next year.
Gary Swidler:
And then the question on app store. John, obviously, there is a lot of noise out there from other companies about the 30% take rate by Apple and Google, and trying different things on that front. We have a very mutually beneficial relationship with Apple and Google. And we've been leaving with the 30% for a while. Obviously, we'd love that number to be less. We have lots of conversations with them. And we're watching all these developments carefully and we'll see what happens. But right now, all of our go forward assumptions are that the 30% or roughly 30%, because you get a little bit benefit for some longer term subscribers. But that roughly 30% continued. It's obviously a huge number for us. I mean, when Tinder on page view 800 plus of revenue this year, 30% to $240 million and then you got all of our other businesses as well. So a cut in that 30% rate would be a massive benefit to our bottom lines. We're incredibly mindful of that but right now our assumptions are that that continues to be the case and the fee remains at 30%.
Operator:
The next question comes from Eric Sheridan with UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Maybe coming back to Tinder, you obviously are using product development to tease out engagement and also tease out adoption of monetization at higher levels going forward. Could you just help us understand a little bit of what you’ve learned in the back part of the year on balancing engagement versus the monetization and how that feeds into thought process around '19, around things like product development versus maybe exploring pricing power in the business model overtime. Thanks guys.
Gary Swidler:
I think as we’ve talked about with Tinder all the time, we view it as a product driven business. And there is a lot of different things that we try to accomplish with the product but driving user growth and driving engagement are at the top of the list. And most of the work that we do around Tinder is focused on driving users and drive engagement, and we’ve been very successful at that. And so it doesn’t get quite as much focus from analysts and investors as the monetization features do. But it’s a bulk of where we spend our energy. So you got things like loops, you got things like the feed, which we talked about today. All those things are designed to continue to improve engagements and make matching more successful and to get feel better outcomes and get them to engage in the product. Mandy talked about today how important it is to Tinder to get matches on day one, matches on day one lead people to have greater satisfaction and to stay in to be retained. So those are all things that we spend a lot of effort and time on. And the revenue features are a small piece of what we do but obviously critically important since that’s how we make money. And if you look at this year, most of the work was done on user and engagement features with Picks being the primary one on the revenue side. I would expect that there might be some balancing out of that as we get into 2019, because we’re going to have some smaller revenue features. And so we’ll have several more regular cadence of smaller revenue features over the course of the year, as well as a number of features designed to driver users and drive engagement as well. So, you’re going to continue to see rapid product momentum at Tinder. It's a story about velocity next year, I think, in terms of both user focus, features, as well as monetization features. We do still have pricing power at Tinder. We’re still very early in dynamic pricing and testing price elasticity. We need to do that more on country-by-country basis, as well since Tinder is in pretty in much every country in the world. We need to get more sophisticated at that. So we see a lot of opportunity to do that as we turn the corner into '19. And we will make progress in that but we’re very early and we’re studying that all very carefully. But I would expect you’ll see continued upward movement in Tinder’s ARPU as you go into 2019, not nearly where it was over the last four, five quarters, but you’ll still some nice growth in Tinder ARPU.
Operator:
The next question comes from Kunal Madhukar with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Kunal Madhukar:
Two, if I may. One related to the specially cash dividend and the other one on the Tinder U. On the special your cash dividend, I want to better understand that rationale for the $2 per share. Why not do a dollar now and another dollar maybe six months out the road where you don’t need to borrow to make the dividend? And on Tinder U, you talked about the 1,200 plus campuses in the U.S. How many campuses have you rolled out abroad? And can you -- you talked about the strong engagement and the swipe rate and what have you. How has that engagement translated into potentially more subscribers and maybe higher ARPU?
Mandy Ginsberg:
I'll take the Tinder U one. So we launched Tinder U -- we really started focusing on universities and marketing on universities like last spring, and then in August, we launched Tinder U. We think that 18 to 22 audience is really important. If you look at their market, there's really no product that captures that 18 to 25 young lifestyle adventurous time in people's lives. All the products that are introduced in the market over the last couple of years really tend to focus on much more serious relationships. So we thinks it's a great area to continue manage and maintain. We have launched Tinder U across about 1,200 campuses in the U.S., which really lead to single dating social life. And then we're evaluating universities outside of the U.S., including Western Europe where university campus life is a little bit more similar. And then there's also other parts of the world where we have ramped up marketing efforts, not Tinder U but marketing efforts to college age students and that will continue, because we think there's an important opportunity to target people right out of high school and into their early college years. And then the last point in terms of engagement. We have seen swipe rate increase and it's obvious because you're showing people more swipe rates, they're just showing more relevant users people. And so as engagement increases and people are on the apps for longer, we will see it increase in subscribers from that audience. And as I said, Kunal, we're excited because that really is our effort that really is the fastest growing cohort across the ecosystem and we're going to continue to focus there.
Gary Swidler:
And I think just quickly on the dividends because we're running out of time. I think as you can imagine, we look at every permutation of the dividend, every dollar amount, what it did to our leverage levels, took into account our free cash flow, or our future free cash flow generation. And we basically analyze all that include that $2 now made sense. It doesn't preclude us from doing something else down the road. It doesn't require us to do something else down the road. So, this is what the analysis led to at this particular point in time and we feel good about it. And we will continue to analyze this periodically. And we'll make decisions based on where we stand at that point around the dividends. But the analysis made it feel like we were below suboptimal leverage levels and we could declare this dividend, return back to more optimal leverage levels and go from there. And so that's how we came to that conclusion.
Kunal Madhukar:
Thanks Mandy. Thanks Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Okay, you're welcome. Thanks everybody for joining. We appreciate it. And we'll talk to you next quarter.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Lance Barton - SVP, IR Mandy Ginsberg - CEO Gary Swidler - CFO
Analysts:
Jason Helfstein - Oppenheimer Anthony DiClemente - Evercore Brandon Ross - BTIG Brent Thill - Jefferies Peter Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities Douglas Anmuth - JPMorgan Dan Salmon - BMO Capital Eric Sheridan - UBS Ross Sandler - Barclays
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Match Group Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined on the call by our CEO, Mandy Ginsberg and CFO, Gary Swidler. They will review the Q2 investor presentation that is available on our IR Web site and then will take questions. But before we start, I’d like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release, in our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Now over to you Mandy.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Thanks, Lance and good morning everyone. Gary will review our financial results in detail, but I want to begin by highlighting how truly exceptional our financial performance continues to be. I’ve been in this role for nearly eight months and it is really exciting to post the best first half performance in our history with 36% topline growth and 60% EBITDA growth. I’m proud of the team for all of the hard work they’ve put in, which has enabled us to achieve results that few other companies are able to match. And with that, let’s jump into the business update. Starting on page four, Tinder remains the growth driver of our business. Direct revenue in the second quarter of Tinder was up 136% compared to last year as subscribers grew 81% and ARPU rose 33%. Four quarters after the initial launch of Tinder Gold, we continue to see very healthy adoption rates of Gold, both among new users purchasing Gold as well as existing Tinder plus subscribers upgrading to Gold. As a result, the percentage of Gold subscribers continued to increase in Q2 and is above 50% of the total Tinder subscribers. As Gold continues to drive revenue, the team at Tinder is in focus on improving the user experience through a number of both visible and under the HUD [ph] initiative. We don’t often talk about these under HUD -- initiatives because it’s not a glamorous as the exciting consumer facing features we’ve allowed but extremely important to understand that much of the work we do consists of making analytically driven enhancements that lead to improved product performance and modernization. So as an example, some of the AI driven enhancements to the recommendation engine have resulted in marked improvements and the experience of new users globally which led to real strength and retentions and subscriber conversions in Q2. We believe there’s a lot more opportunity for similar performance, optimizations which should continue to improve the user experience and monetization. On the monetization front, in July we started testing Picks, which is the new revenue feature we’ve been talking about and if you turn to the next page, you can see more detail about this feature that is available on iOS and Android in nine countries around the globe. Picks provide Gold subscribers with a tailored daily selection of four to ten interesting and popular users. We highlight their hobbies, interest and passions all derived from profile information using small tags on each profile, tags such as foodie, military, scholar and traveler. Picks are here today and are gone tomorrow, so users need to come back daily to see the latest selections. On the last call, I mentioned that a big objective at Tinder is to give users more reasons to come back to Tinder and to use the app more often. Viewing daily Picks is a great reason for users to come back frequently. Picks is the revenue feature designed to build upon Tinder and particularly growth momentum. Tinder monetization is really hitting on all cylinders from the progress we made last year. We are testing Picks in several markets as an added benefit to increase the value of Tinder Gold. While it’s still very early we are seeing indications of strong resonance among users. We anticipate that Picks will increase conversion rates as well as drive up ARPU through higher Gold uptake. It also potentially provides us the opportunity to demand higher prices for Gold in certain markets and we think it can be another example of the continued success we've had with monetization over the past three years at Tinder. Tinder places is the location feature we launched last quarter, is another feature that creates daily reasons to come back. You may recall that places a new way for users to see potential matches go to the same places they do. Where you go, there’s so much about who you are, especially in a highly mobile, young, and social community. On average, our users go to 20 to 25 social places a month. With places, Tinder users can see who else went to their favorite new Italian restaurant, independent bookstore around the corner or the dive bar down the street. We've been testing places and a few markets with positive early results for our users. Two people that match this feature are 20% more likely to engage in a conversation. Thus far users who enable places enjoy the feature and retention remains high, and we believe places is the first step in a broader focus on location driven features at Tinder. I also had briefly mentioned Loops, which is not on the slide, we’ve talked about before are our two second user generated Video Loops are now available on iOS in 26 markets including the U.S. and add another dimension to the user profile. A Loop really makes the user come to life more than a static photograph, but without the awkwardness of the lengthy video. Users who include a Loop in their profile experience high, right fight [ph] rate, match rates and conversion rates. We also recently announced Tinder’s integration with Snapchat, Snap Kit, enabling users to use Bitmojis. Tinder is one of the first app and the only dating app to integrate this way, but Bitmoji users have a playful new way to engage with matches and Bitmojis give users the opportunity to show more personality. In addition to these features, we are excited to introduce something new at Tinder to an important viral and influential community, college students. Five years ago at college campuses around the U.S, students first heard about Tinder through friends. Tinder spread like wildfire, because it was a really fun and easy way to meet people who went to school, but you didn’t know personally. Keep in mind, prior to Tinder, people in their late teens and 20s simply didn't use any products. Tinder brought in a new audience that was young, social and mobile. While Tinder’s audience is filling [ph] and the vast majority of users are in their 20s. We believe it is critical that Tinder maintains a strong foothold at universities around the globe, especially given that every 18-year-old who starts college is building a social life from scratch making new friends and starting new relationships. Next week, we are launching Tinder U. This is a student focused experience inside the Tinder app. This allows students to get the full fleet of Tinder’s features while interacting with other college student on their campuses or on campuses nearby. For example, in Boston, users will see students from Harvard, MIT, Boston College task [ph] and all of the other colleges in the Boston area. The college years are incredibly social. Tinder U provides a powerful way for college students to interact on a daily and weekly basis, centered around going out and meeting up, which should really enhance college social life. To support Tinder U, we will launch a major marketing campaign on college campuses throughout the U.S. Tinder has become an iconic youth and lifestyle brand and we think with this new and app experience we will keep Tinder fresh and exciting for the 20 million student on U.S. college campuses plus millions more globally. Let’s look at slide six. We believe that as a market leader in dating, we should consistently incubate new products internally and make strategic acquisitions where we can leverage our expertise. As we think about incubation, we are mindful that startup success rates are low. For every Tinder, there are countless failures. Despite the overwhelming odds against success, we should continue to make rational bets on internally incubated ideas with the belief that one of these brands might succeed as a standalone brand or may become an innovative feature within an existing brand. It’s about backdrop that I highlight a couple of early innovation. Chispa, a mobile app that we launched in cooperation with Univision to serve the Latino community has seen some early traction. In its first six months, it has grown faster than many competitors dating apps despite its narrow focus on one segment of the U.S. population. It’s very early, but we like what we see and if we can continue to attract and retain users, it could someday be an interesting platform to begin monetizing and potentially take the Spanish-speaking market outside the U.S., like Mexico. Another new product Crown came out of an internal ideathon. Crown has the unique dating concept where users select between two potential matches at a time, and a tournament style bracket of 16 potential matches, until they have crowned a winner for the day. The user interface is fun, and it’s engaging and Crown launched earlier this summer it generated a fair amount of PR buzz. Again, it's far too early to say this recent traction will grow into something meaningful but we plan to continue to make these types of bets. On the acquisition front, last month we announced we had acquired 51% of Hinge. Hinge is an early-stage innovative product that is showing great momentum in the U.S. We’ve been fair [ph] to the product since they redesigned it late 2016. We developed an early point of view that the pivot was working and invested a small amount of capital in September 2017. Our initial investment gave us a board seat [ph] and allowed us to work closely with Hinges passionate and talented team, led by founder Justin McLeod. Since our initial investment, there has been fantastic consumer traction and momentum, particularly among young cosmopolitan singles. The new Hinge product is modern and lightweight, yet naturally encourages depth in profile content and user interactions. The user interface has been a hit with relationship mind and millennial leading to strong word-of-mouth growth. Over the past year, Hinge’s monthly downloads increased by 400%. The momentum was compelling enough for invest, further increase our initial stake to 51% and we have the option to acquire the rest of the company. As we did with Tinder and with pair acquisition Japan, we plan to bring all our resources to bear to help Hinge become the next breakout success in the category. We plan to meaningfully ramp up marketing spend in the second half of 2018, and capitalize on the natural momentum the product is showing, particularly with sophisticated young users in big cities like New York, Boston, Chicago and LA. I’m bullish on what we can achieve with Hinge. In addition to incubation and M&A, we also see large opportunities for us to build presence in additional international markets where there’s a large and growing single population. Tinder have a toehold in many of these markets and we have a strong business in Paris, and Japan. There's room for us to have more products in more market. In particular, we see massive opportunity in certain Asian and North African Middle Eastern markets that have very young and highly mobile savvy populations and plan to share, build share their overtime either organically or through M&A. On Slide seven, we thought it would be useful to take a step back and briefly summarize the evolution of the dating category; she can better understand our portfolio today and our strategy going forward. We believe in like – stating one size does not fit all, making multiple products necessary in the market. And today, young people are using more than three dating products at a time. We believe that our 20 years in the dating category gives us significant insight into behavior in this category. Only the track record of success in both innovating exciting new products and bringing our skills to great products that we have purchased to create additional success. In 1995, Match created the first online dating site in the U.S. and Meetic followed soon in Europe. Despite being founded so long ago, both brands have really withstood the test of time and remain number one in terms of unaided awareness among singles and their respective markets. Both of these brands have always attracted users age 30 and above, who are willing to pay for dating products. Today, we remain very focused on making sure that both brands remain the top choice for people in the 30s and 40s, who are looking for serious relationship. We have been making progress testing product changes to increase the value for users of these brands, to just streamline – streamlining the subscriber experience, producing ads and providing a higher level of customer service. We know people do not mind paying to find more serious relationships. We just have to make sure that we provide great value for the money. With Match and Meetic making the products deliver a better overall experience is key to meeting our objective. We are working to ensure that Match and Meetic continue to serve the serious, slightly older premium price dating community. The next suite [ph] of change hit our category in early 2000. From PlentyOfFish and OkCupid became the first to offer a free product and monetize through ad. Many observers expected this free alternatives to dominate the category and to kill Match, but what ultimately transpired is that free products brought new people into the category who were previously reluctant to pay for dating products. This influx of new users lowered the category stigma and drilled organic growth of PlentyOfFish and OkCupid. Today OkCupid 20 and PlentyOfFish both have strong positions in the market with growth opportunities ahead. Because these businesses haven’t traditionally marketed their products, their brand awareness is fairly low. We see opportunity to invest in markets and marketing to drive user growth in a variety of markets. You recall that at OkCupid, we ran a series of bold and exciting ads on subways and billboards earlier this year and got people talking, which drove higher awareness in our key markets. Encouraged by that early traction, last month we expanded the advertising campaign to five more large cities across the U.S. and are seeing similar results with increased new user growth in markets -- and substantial. Fast forward to 2012; smartphones and the app economy took off in the incubated Tinder to bring dating to get another new audience. The users in the early 20s is the largest single population of all on smartphones. Tinder’s viral growth around the globe was unparalleled in this category and it truly is, and only by itself. It is the only brand created in the last decade to be in the top five in terms of unaided awareness among all signals in the U.S. and is the number one brand for singles under the age 35. On the heels of the success of Tinder, investment started to flow into the category with many competitors focusing their marketing dollars towards relationship mind and millennials as a way to differentiate from Tinder, despite the lack of product differentiation, which brings us back to Hinge. Our of the many new and emerging players, we believe Hinge has distinguished itself with a unique product experience and is already resonating with its core demographic of cosmopolitan relationship minded millennials. We believe that with our focus, Hinge will be able to emerge as another meaningful player in the category with through staying power and success. In addition to feeling Tinder’s massive traction, and Hinge’s emerging momentum, we have seen success with geographic expansion, specifically in Japan with our Pairs brand. Japan had a large economy and high per capita income and that due to some lingering segment, dating products have been slower to catch on than the U.S. However, the Japanese market is now growing quickly. Under Match’s group ownership, Pairs has become the number one dating product in Japan and is a great example of driving growth by combining our in-depth knowledge of monetization and marketing with the local team that knows our market intimately. We believe, we can take this recipe for success to other key geographies over time. Reviewing the evolution of the dating business makes Korea [ph] our strong and lasting position as a leader in global and growing category. Tinder’s achievements have been phenomenal. We have a diverse portfolio of other brands to serve varying dating needs and we are making new pass through innovation and thoughtful acquisition. As a result, we are very well positioned for the future. And with that, Gary is going to take you through the numbers.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Mandy. Match Group had another very impressive quarter of financial performance in Q2, with continued outstanding momentum at Tinder and overall stability at our other brands. We experienced very strong topline growth in Q2 and continue to see operating leverage result in a meaningful jump in margins. We are off to a fantastic start to 2018 and our outlook for the rest of the year is extremely positive. Let's review the details. On slide nine, you can see that average subscribers reached over 7.7 million, up 27% year-over-year and up a point from Q1 2018s year-over-year growth rate. North America grew average subscribers 20% year-over-year, a level we have not seen in three years pro forma for our acquisition of PlentyOfFish. International grew average subscribers 36% year-over-year. Note that Tinder's rapid growth has a bigger impact on our international business because of the bigger piece of the pie internationally. Tinder continued to be our growth engine. It has 1.7 million average subscribers year-over-year and a 81% growth rate, and 299,000 sequentially. Tinder’s sequential subscriber growth was slightly stronger than we had expected as new user conversion and re-subscription rates were both stronger than we had anticipated. We expected to decline from a 360,000 sequential additions in Q1, which was indeed the case, but Q2 sequential net ads remain well above our historical averages from the period prior to the introduction of Tinder Gold. Subscriber trends at our brands outside of Tinder were similar to what we had seen in Q1, 2018. We specifically call out outstanding performance in our peers business in Japan and OkCupid continued to make solid progress. Subscriber declined at our affinity brands also continue to moderate. In all, subscriber’s ex-Tinder were down slightly year-over-year, but the year-over-year trend improved relative to last quarter. Overall company ARPU is up $0.04, 8% year-over-year to $0.57 as ARPU expanded both domestically and internationally. International ARPU did benefit to some extent from FX rates, but EBITDA on a constant currency basis, International ARPU was up 9% to $0.53. Overall ARPU was up $0.03 or just under 6% on a constant currency basis. The $0.01 decline in ARPU sequentially was driven by FX. Tinder Gold had a major impact on ARPU once again this quarter. As Mandy noted, Tinder’s ARPU in the quarter grew 33% year-over-year as Gold subscribers are now over 50% of total Tinder subscribers. Tinder’s ARPU which is approaching the overall company ARPU has also been driven by strong à la carte of both boost and Super Like. Flipping top slide 10, you can see that the subscriber in ARPU growth led to total revenue growth year-over-year of 36%, in line with the year-over-year growth we saw last quarter. Excluding FX impact of $8 million, year-over-year growth would have been 34%. We demonstrated strength in all components of revenue in Q2. North America grew direct revenue, 24% and international where Tinder comprises a larger portion was up 53%. Indirect revenue grew strongly once again at 33% year-over-year as we continued to see growth in programmatic revenue at Tinder and we increased direct ad sales. EBITDA grew 60% in Q2, due to the revenue growth and operating leverage, in line with the growth rate we had achieved in Q1 of this year. EBITDA margins were 42% in the quarter, up significantly from Q2, 2017 showing over six points of improvement. Overall expenses as for the percentage of revenue were 64% in Q2, down from 73% in the prior year quarter. Of particular note is sales and marketing expense for the quarter declined to 21% of revenue from 28% in Q2 2017 reflecting the ongoing shift to brands like Tinder and OkCupid with relatively lower marketing spend as a percent of revenues. Marketing expense this quarter includes year-over-year increases at Tinder and Pairs, as well as from the inclusion of Hinge in our Q2 results. In Q2, we under spend some marketing dollars that we have been anticipating at Tinder and OkCupid as our plans to spend those dollars in the quarter got delayed slightly. This resulted in better-than-expected, EBITDA end margins in the quarter. Product development cost increased $9 million in the quarter, largely due to increased headcount at Tinder as we continued to invest in that business. Total stock-based comp expense, which is included in each category of expenses was just under $17 million in the quarter, up slightly from the prior year quarter and in line with our expectations. Operating income grew 81% in the quarter, driven by the higher revenues and reduced operating expenses as a percentage of revenues. The operating income growth rate exceeded our EBITDA growth rate to lower stock-based comp expense, depreciation and acquisition related continuous expenses as a percentage of revenues. Operating income margins rose 8 [ph] points to 36% compared to 27% in Q2, 2017. On slide 11, you can see that the business continues to generate significant cash. Free cash flow for the first half of 2018 was up 65% to $229 million. For the second quarter, free cash flow increased 106% year-over-year to $111 million. Our cash balance of 630 of $310 million provides a solid financial flexibility for additional strategic M&A opportunities, stock buybacks for other uses. In Q2, we used $85 million of our cash to repurchase shares to offset dilution from employee option exercises and to pay withholding taxes on the option exercises. In 2018, we have repurchased a total of 2 million shares under our 6 million share repurchase authorization. By using cash to pay withholding taxes, and by net settling options, we issued 1.3 million fewer shares in Q2. The business also continues to delever, our current trailing 12-month leverage is 2.2 times on a gross basis, and 1.6 times on a net basis. On slide 12, we discuss our outlook. For Q3, we expect revenue of $430 million to $440 million or 27% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. We expect Tinder to continue to be the revenue growth driver with aggregate stability at our other brands. We expect $160 million to $165 million EBITDA in Q3 or proximally 36% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, and margin of approximately 37%. As I mentioned, we under spent a little marketing in Q2, but we have shifted some of those dollars to be deployed in Q3. We expect additional marketing spend in Q3 to primarily be a Tinder with more modest increases at Pairs, PlentyOfFish, OkCupid and Hinge as we support strong product momentum for these brands in their key markets. As Mandy discussed, the Tinder wrap [ph] in marketing spend has time to coincide with the back-to-school season for college students, who form a critical piece of Tinder’s target demographic, and particularly to support the launch of the new Tinder U and app experience. I had mentioned on last quarter’s call that Q3 would contain elevated marketing spend levels, so you can see that translating through the numbers here. We’ve been planning this Tinder marketing effort thoughtfully and are optimistic that this spend will drive meaningful benefits at Tinder overtime. The Hinge spend is something that wasn't in our forecast previously. We’re planning to increase Hinges digital marketing spend, to more fully introduce the product to a broader set of users seeking serious relationships. We see a strong product market fit in a highly desirable demographic with a lot of natural momentum. We think this is the right time to supplement Hinges natural momentum with marketing dollars and grow the product in a number of larger metropolitan markets. We expect that Tinder will add a similar number of subscribers in Q3 as it did in Q2, around 300,000 sequentially, above our historical averages, but below the levels in the back half of last year, when Gold drove a massive lift, but as we emphasized many times, Tinder clearly is much more than a subscriber growth story with revenue growth that exceeds subscriber growth. It has multiple growth drivers. Tinder also has opportunities to optimize price and merchandise more effectively, and we continue to make real progress in these areas. For the full year, we are increasing the top of our revenue range by $20 million to $1.72 billion and the bottom of our range by $80 million to $1.68 billion. This reflects the strong performance we've experienced year-to-date and our optimism for the rest of the year, particularly at Tinder. In terms of revenue, the range in our full year outlook relates largely to Tinder Picks. As Mandy said, we are testing adding Picks to the Gold subscription tier, which we expect will drive conversion and ARPU hire and therefore grow revenue. The precise impact of this will affect whether we are near the top of our range or even above it. The tests are early and we expect picks to be rolled out fairly slowly, as we make adjustments along the way, based on test results. We are updating our EBITDA range to $625 million to $650 million and expect to be at or near the top of this range. Our EBITDA outlook for the full year reflects that we intend to invest meaningfully in Hinge, which we expect to drive a low double digit millions drag on EBITDA. We are now consolidating Hinge and it is incorporated into our full year outlook. Aside from revenue, the largest variable on our EBITDA outlook is the exact amount of marketing spend we deployed at a handful of our brands to support their growth, particularly at Tinder to support Tinder U and the brand globally. I want to highlight that Tinder continues to experience meaningful momentum and operating leverage with strong and expanding margins. In fact, Tinder is on pace to exceed $800 million in revenue in 2018, a phenomenal achievement in less than four years of monetization. Stepping back, we really could not have hoped for a stronger start to the year. The Q1 performance was phenomenal and the trends have resulted in Q2 that was as good, or arguably even better. Our expectations have largely come to fruition. Tinder success is driving stellar growth and our other businesses are stable overall. The business continues to demonstrate operating leverage. This is particularly the case at Tinder and as we shift to businesses with relatively lower marketing spend as a percentage of revenues. We have added Hinge to the portfolio at a modest purchase price. While Hinge will be a short-term drag in profitability, as we made -- make both marketing and headcount investments in a product that shows strong momentum, we believe it can be a meaningful long-term growth contributor for the company and ultimately carve out a strong position in the more serious end of the dating app landscape, backed by our monetization and marketing know-how, that will be fun to watch. With that, we’ll now answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open the line to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks, two part question Tinder Picks. One, can you confirm that Picks is the main new product for the second half of 2018 or is there another major product coming? And then, on Tinder Picks, the feature would appear to be aimed at improving your hit rate as a dater versus the main value of Gold, as it gave subscribers more bats. And I know you said that early indications on Picks is positive, but it would seem that the incremental financial impact would be much lower than Gold, so just any color around there just given the comparison on ARPU in the back half of the year? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Okay, Jason. Try to answer both of your questions. So on Picks this is the revenue feature that we had been planning for in the back half of the year. It's not the only feature we're going to rollout at Tinder, obviously we've talked Tinder U, we've talked about Loops, we've talked Snapchat integration. We're working on places. So there's a lot of product momentum, generally a lot of new features in fact Tinder U is a new thing we haven't talked about previously. But in terms of revenue and clear customer facing features designed to drive revenue Picks is what we've been focused on. In terms of your question around churn and how we think about the Gold impact from Picks compared to what we saw in Gold. You're right. Gold was a new feature that came out last year and created a massive uplift because it was a new SKU and it was something we hadn't seen before. The Picks feature that is going into Gold is more incremental, and so we're expecting to see a more incremental impact than what we saw with the initial pop last year. But as we're thinking about what Picks is going to do, we're expecting that over time it's going to lead to higher conversion just like Gold did. We saw massive increase in conversion when we rolled out Gold and we're expecting incremental conversion lifts from Picks as well. In some markets we're going to price up the Picks feature and we'll see lift from that. We're going to see lift as more Gold subscribers come into the system. We're going to see more la carte purchases as well. So there's going to be a system-wide lift from the Picks feature that's rolled into Gold. And we're testing a variety of ways to roll it out and we're going to be testing it for a few weeks, but as we see how those tests work we're going to figure out the ways to maximize the overall revenue impact, that's where we're particularly good at. We will toggle between the price list and the conversion list and drive revenue at Tinder and while it may not have the same impact that Gold had last year when it was first introduced. We expect there to be incremental left from Picks and we're optimistic that's one reason we've raised our guidance and that's one of the reason why we're very optimistic for the rest of the year.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Next question please.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Anthony DiClemente of Evercore. Please go ahead.
Anthony DiClemente:
Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Gary, free cash flow was really strong and well ahead of expectations. Can you talk a little bit more about your strategy for capital allocation going forward? I think in your prepared remarks you mentioned M&A. Just wanted to ask about ways you can use your free cash flow and strong balance sheet position to either invest in new products either organically or via M&A? And then how you're thinking about share repurchases as part of your capital allocation strategy going forward? And then for Mandy, you spend a couple of minutes highlighting Crown in your prepared remarks. So we were curious just -- the tournament or March Madness-style product here dating apps and how those fit into the portfolio? As time passes which milestones are you looking to on Crown before it starts to kind to click in and move the needle on monetization? Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. Why don't I start with Crown then you can fill in the others. So, as I mentioned in the remarks, Crown is just one example of our incubation in our R&D efforts. I mean, it's clearly in very early stages and we're experimenting with the number of themes. So, from dating psychology to technology and also geographic themes like what's going to work in different regions around the globe. And then these learnings informs us either if these become ultimately standalone brand or if they actually get embedded into our existing brands whether there's scale. So, for example our incubation team worked on a location feature is that ultimately became the feature they got rolled into Match which is miss connections. So we really look to see what's happening with traction and where we think it best fit. And then in terms of monetization, we don't really set milestones out the gate for sure. Chispa for example which I talked about, we are not monetizing through subscription, but we're just starting to test la carte just to see what the take rates are and does it add incremental value to the user experience. And then if you look at Tinder, for the first two years of Tinder we've really – we didn't monetize it at all. We really focused on growth and user growth and we felt two years that was the right time to start testing monetization and we think it's important for any of these ideas to have liquidity and really test out whether or no these products work either like I said standalone or embedded into a product we scale.
Gary Swidler:
In terms of the free question, Anthony, you're right, our free cash flow in the quarter results show at, first half of the year has been phenomenal from a free cash flow perspective, so we're very pleased about that. In terms of what we might do with the cash, look, we feel that the portfolio is in great shape. It's obviously running and also -- and there's a pretty close to that. And so we don't have any obvious hold in the portfolio from an M&A standpoint. But we are constantly scouring the globe for opportunities and where we see a strategic fit that makes sense with economic that makes sense, we will try to do that acquisition. That's the case in Hinge most recently We are particularly focused in international markets. We think there is a large growing single population there with access to technology. We love you capture more share in the international market, so we're particularly looking there. The Pairs deal that we did which is firing on all cylinders right now is a good case study for us where we can bring our know-how to an acquisition and really build share in a market. So that's kind of the same thing that we're looking for to deploy on the M&A front and if we find these opportunities we've got the cash, we've got the resources do it and we won't hesitate, but as you know we're discipline in this regard and so we're sticking to that discipline and looking for those right opportunities. If we don't find M&A opportunities that make sense for us, we will continue to do some what we've been doing over the course of the first half of this year which is investing in ourselves and buying back stock especially in situations where we think the market has really under priced the company because its worried about certain external factors or other things that are outside of our control. We're driving the business and if we don't think market reflects the true value and potential of the company then we use the cash, we have to buy back stock and so that's what we've been doing. We'll see kind of how things shake out after we get off this call and post these results. But we've got the resource to buy back stock if that's what makes sense and so more to come on that front.
Anthony DiClemente:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brandon Ross of BTIG. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross:
Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. One for Gary, as recently as last quarter I think you reiterated that 40% margins were reasonable long-term target for the business, but you're already approaching that number this year and I think Tinder should be steady-state mid-50s margin business and that's taking significant share. Is there any reason not to reassess that longer-term 40% margin vision?
Gary Swidler:
Well, Brandon, I think actually if you go back to what I've said about long-term margin trends, what I said was that we think we could achieve 40% plus for the overall company and so that plus is a pretty important little sign in that -- we are very confident in that 40 as you say, we're trending in that direction and I think there is room to go. Tinder has more operating leverage that we're to continue to see. We talked about margins that Tinder being north of 40% last quarter. For the past two quarters we said they're strong expanding this quarter. So you can model out what you think makes sense from a Tinder margin perspective, but I'm confident that we're going to continue to expand margins there and the overall company is healthy as well and benefiting from operating leverage as the OkCupid and PlentyOfFish in the world where marketing spend is a much smaller percentage of revenue, continue to be a bigger and bigger piece of pie along with Tinder. And so as a result of that feel very confident in that 40% plus. We haven't given more specific guidance on that, but we will continue to see marketing -- to continue see margins expand over time, may not happen every single quarter for example in Q3 of this year, we're going to spend up heavily on marketing because we've got some key initiatives and key product innovation that we're going to support. But if you look at the trends that have occurred on the marketing spend line we expanded, we reduce marketing spend as percentage of revenue in 2017 over 2016 and when you look at 2018 over 2017 its going to be something like two, three points where marketing spend, percentage of revenue comes down. So there clearly is significant leverage particularly on marketing spend side.
Brandon Ross:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brent Thill of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Thanks. Good morning. Mandy, can you touch a little bit on the non-Tinder assets and specifically what brands you are seeing the most growth potential, the non-Tinder portfolio is mostly like flat, when do you think that can return to growth?
Mandy Ginsberg:
Yes. So, I'll start off. I think that as I said during the call, we've got a broad portfolio that address lot of that customers needs. And then in that portfolio there are number of puts and takes. So we're seeing strong momentum in businesses like OkCupid, and Pairs to name a few. We believe that – and for some of these businesses for example, Match and Meetic that have been in the past really dependent on television advertising, they still continue to be pressure on the top of the funnel for sure, but we think over time we can not just stabilize but grow these businesses moderately. Do you want to add?
Gary Swidler:
Yes. I mean, I think as I mentioned in remarks and I think you are aware, we look at the performance net business in the non-Tinder business overall as stable, and that's what we talked about was the goal for 2018. I think we've achieved that. In fact if you look at kind of the year-over-year sub-growth it was better this quarter than it was last quarter and it was better last quarter than it was the prior quarter and that trend has been the case for three or four quarters now. So it is stable. We continue to make progress in those businesses. As Mandy said, there is different rate of growth happen in various businesses. We've talked about Pairs doing very well in particularly, OkCupid having traction. We're also making a certain number of decisions in the non-Tinder businesses that are affecting the overall trend. So in some of the Affinity businesses we're not spending up in marketing, they are small businesses. We don't see the LTVs and so we're pulling back and we talked about spending marketing judiciously at some of the businesses do like Match and Meetic where we don't the marketing spend reaching our ROI thresholds and therefore you're going to see some knock-on affects on sub-growth, but overall given where the company is we think that all make sense. So those sub-trends are affected by things we're making and we think that maximizing revenue and ultimately profitability. But we're happy with where we gotten the business to so far this part of the year. We think it will be stable in 2018. And then our goal is to continue make some new bets and make some product enhancement and ultimately drive some growth out of the of the non-Tinder assets, so can't tell you exactly when, can't tell you exactly the order of magnitude, but we're plan to go from a stable business to something that over time can be positioned for growth.
Brent Thill:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Peter Stabler of Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.
Peter Stabler:
Thanks very much. A follow-on to Brent's question. So, Mandy could you help us think about the future of the hard paywall businesses. A lot of us have done survey work. Match.com has unbelievable unaided brand awareness yet the model, the pay model is one that falling out of favor with more introductions of premium products and your purchase of Hinge, a product you've said its position towards more serious daters would seem to be in another potential threat to Match. So, as you step back and think about the overall hard paywall businesses, I mean it sounds crazy maybe, but would you ever consider changing those or migrating those businesses to soft wall – paywall, given the massive brand dominance that Match has? And would it possible for you to size the total hard paywall businesses as a percent of total revenue at Match Group? And then if I may one more, you mentioned previously TV efficiency waning a bit; could you offer any updated thoughts on that? Thank you very much.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. Sure. So the first thing I would say is that Match and Meetic which are some of the hard paywall business you mentioned with strong brand awareness. Both of these businesses tend to skew little bit older for people in their 30s and 40s. And what we found is that when it comes to people who are a little older and who have serious intent, the hard paywall is not the constraint, people are willing to pay money to enter into serious relationship, so we don't think – in fact its actually a signal, people think that actually it signifies serious intend to those communities have a little bit of a gate, so when you are reaching out to people and talking with them you actually understand what their intentions are. So I think that that is important to mention, I think that, for that 30 to 40-year old audience we think that both Match and Meetic have a very strong long-term position and sort of squarely fit into that portfolio. You also mentioned how that fit in with Hinge because we talked about serious intent with Hinge. Hinge tends to skew a lot younger, so its definitely people and they're sort of still in their 20s maybe a little bit older late 20s, so we don't think there is as much sort of risk to Match and Meetic where its really generally people in their 30s and 40s sort of between 30 and 50. So, we do still think that hard paywall businesses are relevant. It's more important for us that we evolve the product to make sure that were continuing to create real value for the money and if we do that people like I said really are willing to pay, and if you think about it like in this country 35% of marriages are the result of dating apps and people don't mind paying 20, 30, 40 bucks a month for the hope of finding someone that they can fall in love to marry. Do you want to take it?
Gary Swidler:
Yes. Little bit about kind of the sizing. We don't really disclose specifically how much is one particular brand or how much is hard paywall or so. We're not going to get into that here, but obviously as Tinder becomes a bigger piece of the pie as OkCupid and PlentyOfFish grow, the "hard paywall" businesses are becoming a smaller piece of the pie. But that said, they are still very important piece of the pie. They're still strong cash flow businesses, high margin businesses. And so we continue to focus on them and believe that we can drive performance there, but they are less meaningful in terms of the overall company.
Peter Stabler:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Douglas Anmuth of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thanks for taking the questions. Mandy, you highlighted women's first features as an area of focus over the past few quarters. Could you just give us an update on the progress you're making there in particular around the type of impact and message-first features having and driving women's engagement or subscribers and then perhaps anything else on other female first products in the pipeline to highlight? And then Gary, can you just clarify the Hinge contribution on those revenue and EBITDA for the remainder of the year? Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. So let me take the solving for women. What I'd say is sort of after decade in the category that it's imperative, people have a business or apps. If you don't solve for the female experience, so something we think about all the time. They are number of features at Tinder that we really think through impact to women and solve for the impact to women. So everything for making the recommendation stack more relevant to looking -- giving women more control which you mentioned before. So Loops is an example to make that profile richer and women really like Loops and responded well to Loop. So men who have Loops on their profile get it lot more right swipes from women. So a lot of the features that we are introducing in Tinder really have sort of the female experience in mind. We look very closely at user behavior and the female experience after we launch these features. To address the message first question, it's not a feature, its really a setting and if that setting, people can go under their settings and they can choose who makes that first initial communication. We've rolled out a couple of international markets and the early results show that there were no negative impact to the ecosystem which we are watching for and no really impact on two-way conversation rates but adoption is low. So we're going to have to watch and see what adoption is. Ultimately what I said is that we want to give people the ability to choose and then really it's up to them to decide how they engage with the product. And then second question you ask, what are other products are we launching? We launch, I think I talked about before the gentlemen badge in Europe, his grades [ph] are still high, men who have the gentlemen's badge it really signifies good behavior, see an increase in likes as well as communication. So overall I think it just – it's not something that we do special on the [Indiscernible] basis, but something that we're embedding into everyday thinking of our products.
Gary Swidler:
Doug, in terms of the Hinge contribution, you know, Hinge is at this point a user story. It is not a subscriber story or revenue generation story. So its contribution from a top line perspective to us is really fairly negligible. But what we're saying is that we're investing in the business. We're investing in the team. We're investing in marketing. We're going to make a significant potential investment in marketing here in the back half of the year. So I would expect close high single-digits close to $10 million and its probably going to cost little bit bigger drags in that overall in full year 2018 as we invest in that business. So that's kind of the order of magnitude and that's kind of the case for a little while. We're not focused on monetizing in the shorter-term. We're going to continue invest and build that user base and then we'll turn our attention to focus on monetization.
Douglas Anmuth:
Great. Thank you both.
Gary Swidler:
Okay.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Dan Salmon of BMO Capital. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Hey, Good morning everyone. Mandy, I was hoping we could return to Tinder U for a moment. I think it's fair to come on most people's radar screen through the early part of the year and it was highlighted in the deck last quarter. And the way we start which maybe was incorrect, was as more of a promotional initiative, I think there was a promotion with the Cardi B contest, things like that. It sounds like this obviously evolves and now will roll out more as a product feature. But just maybe first can you just sort of walk us through the sort of history of the Tinder U initiative and how we're looking at that sort of correctly? And then second, as you think about the product feature rolling out later this year, you talked a lot about targeting the teen user, the college user prior to the 20s. Do you think about it primarily as you focus on that demographic and making sure that your user growth and eventually your sub-growth there is strong and comparable to the 20 something demographic? Or is it much about developing new experiences around the college experience and sort of features potentially monetize features for college oriented students specifically, I know it doesn't to be one or the other but any high-level thoughts on the balance between that would be great?
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. Let me start out and if I forget someone remind me. So, you are right. First of all, five years ago Tinder started on college campuses and that's how people found out about as they were talking to their friends on college campuses. And so we have continue to have a foothold, real presence in college campuses, but this is really about kind of doubling down in this college presence. We have talked about Tinder U and its right, it was more marketing related. We kick-off and aggressive ambassador program this past academic year and we've seen some nice momentum and then we also as you mentioned we did a big swipe contest where colleges across country were swiping and winner won a Cardi B context. We actual [Indiscernible] for the top schools, we saw an increase in 350% in terms of new sign-ups and so there was a lot of excitement and buzz around the marketing efforts. But it occurred to us that this can be even more compiling as of product experience. The ability for a student on a college campuses to toggle between the experience on Tinder which is sort of the broader audience as well as being able to just swipe and engage, interact and us e all of the rich features like Places and Loops interacting with just students, so I'm just on your college campus but on college campuses around you. And in terms of how we think about it, its not -- every year you've got 4 million, 5 million new freshmen not just in the U.S. matriculating and those 18 years old they are starting out new relationship, new social circles et cetera and we think that the product really lend itself to that audience particularly with Places. I mean, this audience go out a lot and we think that Places is going to be very compelling to be able to see who went to your favorite [Indiscernible] in the college campus. And I have focused a lot – we're focused a lot on not the monetization aspect of it, but how do we stay relevant, exciting – relative [ph] exciting brand because I know, is thing kind of life on market or -- you got to stay really cool for the younger audience and we think that this can help stay incredibly relevant. So we're excited about it.
Dan Salmon:
Great. That's really helpful. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan of UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks for taking the questions. Going back to the team of optimization and improving retention and conversion of users, I want to understand the product side versus the marketing side, where you making those key investments to improve those optimizations and what should we think that investors think that means for the P&L longer term whether it would be margin efficiency, lower churn, higher ARPU, just how should we think about the output of that? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
So, obviously we're focused on both aspect of it. From a marketing standpoint we've talked about driving users particularly in international markets where we have tiny share and see massive opportunity and there's work to do in developed markets to continue to enhance the Tinder brands reputation and drive users there as well. So that's the double prong approach on the marketing side. Of course product is key to attracting users as well and that's why we have so much product momentum at Tinder and we continue to enhance the features at Tinder and drive users to the product based on what they see and what they find exciting about the Tinder product and Tinder U is yet another piece of that pie and so, you can see that the product continues to evolve and headed in a number of different directions whether its location-based, whether its Tinder U and so forth. I think also what we've really accomplished if you kind of take a little bit of step back with Gold, is that Gold really lifted our metrics both in terms of conversion and in terms of resubscription rate and we saw a very significant pop from Gold and what Gold brought to the table. And we saw that pop initially and then it settled down, but it settles down at levels that were higher than the baseline that came in pre-gold. And so throughout this whole year so far we've seen very sustained lift in conversion resubscription rates and so that product work continue to reset our metrics. Now on top of that higher baseline for conversion and for re-subscription rates, we're bringing out Picks. And Picks should have some additional impact on conversion. Picks is also designed to provide ARPU lift by bringing in more la carte purchases of both of -- of all of our la carte products and we're going to lift that way as well. So we're going to see conversion lift and we're ultimately going to see ARPU lift either through a higher uptake of Gold and that Gold becoming a higher percentage of the overall subscriber at Tinder or our higher rate. And so we are driving better performance and ultimately more revenue through these product innovations. And ultimately that what's translating down into topline growth and what's enabling us to continue this quarter and also last quarter to raise our guidance and outlook for the year as the product worked really takes hold. So that's how we're attacking growth at Tinder and creating growth. It is that double prong approach with marketing and product driving new users and seeing lifts in the metrics through the product work and that's our job and we'll continue to execute as well as we can and as well we have been hopeful on those – on both of those front.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ross Sandler of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Great. Two kind of less conventional questions, Mandy, first, you had some changes to your comp plan in the 8-K filed a couple weeks ago around a change in control. What's the read-through on that if any? And then Gary, the buyback cadence declined a little bit from 1Q to 2Q, so just curious given the dislocation after the Facebook news, why didn't we see more there? Any update on just the overall philosophy on buyback would be helpful? Great. Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Ross, I'll take the first one. So I wouldn't read too much of it. I'm the head of the comp committee for a publicly traded company and they are pretty standard change in control provisions and executive contract, so that sort of addresses that question.
Gary Swidler:
Yes. And just real quick, since we're running out of time. On the buybacks I would say that the amount that we bought back in 1Q and 2Q were fairly similar, I think actually if you look it pretty closely, we slightly more in Q2 than it was in Q1, but its order of magnitude is pretty similar and really we've been pretty disciplined about it and watching kind of where we think values are and so we'll continue to do that. I don't think -- we have a general philosophy on how we think about buyback and where we see the value we’re going to go in. So we're sitting on the bunch of cash as one of your colleagues pointed out. And if we see further opportunities we'll go back into the market. But overall the trends have been pretty stable, steady levels of buybacks as the year has progress.
Gary Swidler:
Okay, we're going to wrap it up there. But thank you everybody for joining and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.
Operator:
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Lance Barton - SVP, IR Mandy Ginsberg - CEO Gary Swidler - CFO
Analysts:
Dan Salmon - BMO Capital Markets John Blackledge - Cowen Ross Sandler - Barclays Jason Helfstein - Oppenheimer Eric Sheridan - UBS Sam Kemp - Piper Jaffray Chris Merwin - Goldman Sachs Douglas Anmuth - JPMorgan
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded. And now, I'd like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined on the call by our CEO, Mandy Ginsberg and CFO, Gary Swidler. They will review the Q1 investor presentation that's available on our IR Web site and then will take questions. But before we start, I’d like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release, in our periodic reports filed with the SEC. I’ll now turn the call over to Mandy.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Great. Thanks Lance. Thanks everyone for joining our call to review the company's best results since the IPO back in 2015. We are delivering all time best across virtually all of our key operating metrics and our momentum is fantastic. I'm sure some of you have joined the call to focus on recent external moves, and I'm going to get to that in a few minutes. But, first, I want to focus on the tremendous progress and results that we are reporting this quarter. So let's begin and turn to Slide 4. Tinder remains the primary catalyst for March Group's growth as Tinder year-over-year revenue growth in the first quarter exceeded 150%. This increase in revenue under scores that Tinder is clearly more than a subscriber growth story. We have multiple revenue drivers for this business including subscription revenue, à la carte revenue, user growth and the various ways in which we optimize, how we merchandise and price our features. Our focus is on driving revenue growth, so the mix of these components can and it will shift over time. Tinder is still in the early stages, how sophisticated we can be in terms of monetization and pricing given we only started offering page features three years ago. So there is still room to optimize the various trade-offs between subscriber growth and ARPU to maximize our overall revenue. In Q1, Tinder average subscribers grew 87% year-over-year and added 368,000 average subscribers sequentially. Renewal rates for Gold were higher than we thought which led us to exceed our Q1 expectations the continuous strength in this metric makes it apparent that our users continue to see significant value in Gold. The year-over-year ARPU growth in Tinder in Q1 was the highest we have seen in two years driven by two components. The first and most obvious driver is Gold, which was non-existent in Q1 last year. The second but less obvious component is growth and à la carte revenue from subscribers. On a sequential basis à la carte revenue grew faster than subscription revenue as we have seen a lift in purchases of à la carte features. We're seeing that Tinder subscribers both Gold and Plus are willing to pay for additional features if those features improve the chances to connect with someone. The combination of dramatically higher ARPU driven by Gold and à la carte purchases and strong subscriber growth led to phenomenal revenue growth for Tinder in Q1. Turn to Slide 5, I want to take you through the Tinder products slide. I want to reiterate what I said in the last call. The biggest driver the long-term revenue growth at Tinder are free features that make Tinder a simple fun and useful product creating a vibrant community of users that in turn drives word of mouth. Our monetization features are clearly important and we're going to continue to develop and enhance these but most users on Tinder experience the product for free. And while we are actively in development and about to start testing a new revenue feature that will launch in the second half of the year, the main focus for us is to give our customers more reason to use Tinder and more reasons to use Tinder more frequently. When a provider uses features that make Tinder an integral part of their journey, so Tinder is a weekly part of their single social life. The first example is the Feed. We launched Feed to all Tinder users in Q1, it's our first feature aimed at enhancing the post match experience by delivering a visual experience that helps users spark conversations with their matches. It gives users a better glimpse into the world of their matches, their passion, their personality, the latest adventure, all leading to better conversations and deeper connections. During testing the Feed drove 25% increase in conversations with older matches and a 15% lift in overall conversations. The second area I want to talk about is video. We're currently testing our first video feature called Loops. Loops are user generated two second looping videos allowing users to show off more of their personality than just the picture. Profile pictures are one dimensional and long form videos can feel a bit awkward, but a loop can bring the user to life without that awkwardness. Loops will show the same way pictures do within a profile. They will be in the cardstock as user swipes through profiles and Loops will also appear in the Feed. And then, you can see in the slideshow, the free PR we got when we launched courtesy of Jimmy Fallon, he is definitely not on Tinder, but he had fun with Loops in his monologue. On the last call we also mentioned that we're working on location based features to enhance the Tinder experience in the real-world. The places we go in our daily lives say so much about who we are and what we like to do since obviously where our life happens. The first step of our private journey in the real-world is Tinder places. Tinder places is a new way for users to see potential matches to enjoy the same places they do. Whether it's their neighborhood bar, favorite coffee shop or a museum they love, they can connect to people who love going to the same places they love going to. This leads to higher quality matches and more authentic conversations. We're currently testing this product in a closed beta with a small group of users and three international markets. In the first three weeks we've seen these users go to 200,000 social places. Half of those users who open the app engage daily with places and 96% of users have continued to keep using the feature. This is a good indicator for both interest and sustainability of the feature. It's a completely an user opt-in feature and we have paid special attention to user privacy and control in designing this. We intend to make Places available to all users in these three cities this quarter again it's still in beta. The early feedback is promising and we hope to roll it out globally soon at that point when we officially launched Places we'll share more details about the product. We've also talked about providing women with more control on how and when matches communicate with them. This week we started testing the message first setting. We believe users want the option to choose who make the first move and we're giving them that choice. These examples are a glimpse into the product innovations we are working on. Also I am pleased to announce that we settled our IP litigation against Tantan, which will result in a redesign of their U.S. app and annual royalty payments tied to their U.S. user base. And this announcement reinforces the strength and value of our market leading innovation. Turning to Slide 6, I want to talk through our marketing efforts. Tinder has become an iconic American brand. It's all about the fun and adventure of being single and it's viral growth is really anything -- unlike anything we've seen in the category. The brand had also resonated globally. Tinder is the top grossing lifestyle app in roughly 100 countries around the world and the second highest grossing app globally non-games behind Netflix. This growth was driven primarily by word of mouth. In the past few quarters, we have started to supplement that viral growth with marketing spend in order to capitalize on the momentum and accelerate brand awareness to drive additional user growth. In the U.S., our marketing campaigns focus on college age users by leveraging relevant celebrities and brands. A few examples include Valentine's Day event with Adam Levine and the expansion of our Tinder-U college ambassador program and a March Madness style contest where 64 colleges competed to win a free concert by music star Cardi B. In international markets where awareness is growing rapidly, but it's still lower than the US. We continue an increase awareness by working with globally recognized brands such as Man City soccer team. Through this partnership, we are creating exciting cannot buy experiences for Tinder users around the globe. In India we launched a fun Bollywood style Tinder video that captured the spirit of dating in India and resonated with young urban Indian women. This effort resulted in almost 2 million views in a wave of press. And in Brazil, we hosted a camaraderie Salvador the hottest party within Carnival attended by many of Brazil's most important influencers. Through PR and social media, Tinder reached tens of millions of Brazilians. The growth of Tinder in unexpected markets like India and South Korea are initial evidence of this cultural phenomenon is global in nature, they are still early in developing markets. And you can see from these examples that I mentioned Tinder is not using traditional marketing channels like TV rather celebrity endorsements, brand partnerships and Internet influencers. Even as we continue to expand our marketing efforts, we expect Tinder will remain a highly profitable and high margin business well above any of our other businesses or businesses in the category. Let's flip to Slide 7. So I want to talk about our other businesses outside of Tinder. Despite headwinds in TV marketing efficiency that I've talked about on our last call, our portfolio outside of Tinder remains stable and we see opportunities to invest in product and marketing to drive long-term growth. Match and Meetic have both successfully transition their businesses from desktop to mobile first products leading to big improvements in conversion and engagement. They also remain two of the most recognized premium brands in the U.S. and Europe with a focus on serious intent. In order to continue distinguishing these brands from the competition, it's important we continue to evolve the product and deliver what is truly a premium experience versus alternative in the market. To that and we're going to make the move to increase the value for users of these brands. For example, we're going to enrich the subscription by offering -- by rolling in à la carte feature that we previously charge for, [indiscernible] the subscriber experience by reducing the number of ads and last by increasing customer service levels. These changes are meant to drive word of mouth growth and ensure premium positioning of these brands that have historically relied on traditional marketing to grow. We also see opportunities to invest increasing the awareness of some of our brands to drive their subscriber growth. OkCupid for example ended 2017 with some great product wins materially increasing engagement, conversion and overall product appeal. We amplify those wins in Q1 by launching a provocative marketing campaign in OkCupid markets. We saw a 32% increase in aided brand awareness in New York City and a 13% increase in other test markets. More importantly we saw double-digit registration growth in these markets indicating this is a viable marketing strategy that can help drive top of [indiscernible] OkCupid. We plan to make further marketing investments into positive momentum, which should lead to increased awareness and adoption in the short and long-term. In Japan, our Pairs brand have seen extremely strong subscriber growth and has benefited from the expertise of the Match Group following its acquisition in 2015. We are expanding our marketing spend in channels in Japan and our push in the Pairs brand in Korea. The dating market is still relatively nascent in both Japan and South Korea as compared to the U.S. or Western Europe which bodes well for long-term growth prospects of the business. Okay. Turning to Slide 8. Slide 8 addresses two forthcoming changes to our operating landscape. The first is GDPR and changes in data protection and privacy expectations. We are keenly aware that our customers share more intimate details than they typically share with their broader social network of friends and family. Therefore, we have always considered protecting our users' privacy a top priority at everything we do. And of course, we've been working to be fully compliant with GDPR regulations by the May 25 deadline. Tinder will be applying GDPR standards globally, our businesses that are not subject to GDPR intend to nonetheless adopt similar privacy standards as required under GDPR. We really want to be a leader in protecting our users' sensitive data. The second is Facebook. We started getting inquiries about how changes at Facebook due to the Cambridge Analytica scandal might impact our business. And then, of course, major questions arose in light of Facebook's announcement last week that they planned on increasing their focus on dating. So let's start with Facebook's recent announcement because I know many of you are focused on this topic. First let me say we respect the power of Facebook and its global scale. Their announcement about dating included very few specifics not many details are available for us to analyze. However, we definitely know a few things about the dating and it has helped us assess what we think the impact could be. First and foremost Facebook has been a part of the dating landscape really since inception. We know that people meet their significant other in many ways aside from online dating, cleaning at bars, churches through relatives and through friends and not surprisingly through Facebook. This is a result of introductions from friends and family, of course, but also through a series of subtle features on Facebook designed to introduce new people. In fact, Facebook has over time tried a number of product features to enhance it as a source for dating. You may remember the poke from the early days that faded. There's also a Facebook Graph Search launched in 2013 which allowed users to search for things like single men who attended Harvard and live in San Francisco. And that was viewed at the time as a feature that would disrupt online dating. In 2017, Facebook launched discover people to facilitate connection between people who aren't already Facebook friends and a meet up prompt and messengers showed users people who want to meet up with them. We want to point out that none of these had any discernible impact on our business. We now know that Facebook is going to turn the screw further on the dating continuum including the dating profile, which means users will declare explicitly that they are available to date and invite contact from strangers. I think this point is important. The expectation of overt dating features and apps reflect all the complicated emotions that dating evolves and involves rejection, dissatisfaction, great dates, bad dates, and then, ultimately people churn. We in our category, we have to deal with this by explicitly introducing and promoting dating and their ecosystem. Facebook will have to confront and carefully manage this dating dynamic into their customers' experience. At [indiscernible] Facebook focused on connecting daters through flows in their events and group modules where they probably see some dating related activity already happening. In my mind, it would make sense for them to live a dating focus to that aspect of their experience because that would minimize conflict with their core business. If that does end up being the case then they're not going to compete with what our apps do, just as we don't think bars, churches, friends and family nor Facebook today directly competes with us and impact our dating business. But it's really unclear at this point. Research also says that the vast majority of singles would not want to use Facebook for dating primarily due to concerns with data and personal privacy. But more importantly they don't want to be contacted by strangers on a social network meant for connections with friends and family. This resistance is particularly pronounced among women in the younger demographics. Another strong data point that gives us confidence that Facebook dating is unlikely to have a negative impact on Tinder, which is our biggest growth engine is a striking result of our introduction of SMS sign- up on Tinder last year. Take a look at Slide 8 on the bottom right, before last year our users could only sign-up using Facebook authentication. Within two months of offering Tinder users an alternative to sign-up with Facebook, new users went from 100% Facebook sign up down to only 25% Facebook sign-up. Even though a Facebook sign-up was the first option on the screen and the most frictionless. Said in another way, users quickly and decisively separated Facebook from their dating experience. The data we show for new users sign-up is for North America, but the trend is very similar globally. And additionally, we saw a meaningful lift in new users joining Tinder after providing an alternative to Facebook sign-up. These were likely users who were previously unwilling to connect through Facebook who now saw an opportunity to finally join Tinder. When we asked our users why the aversion to locking into Tinder via Facebook, the answer came back it was simple, a preference not to mix dating with our broad network of friends and family. We often know that in the context of dating intensive community and the brand matters. This is not a utility feature, people want a community of users with similar intent. Dating is so personal and we see people gravitate to brands they trust and they relate to, a 23-year old who just graduated from college is going to use a very different brand than a 43-year old single mom who wants a serious relationship. This is not a category when one size fits everyone, it's never been a winner take all category. On average people use three dating products at any given time Tinder's earned and we believe will maintain its place as one of those three especially among younger users. It took the launch of Tinder five years ago to unlock a huge audience in their 20s and why because Tinder is, its own unique experience representing a sense of adventure and freedom that we don't believe Facebook can replicate especially at the expense of their core experience. The global market for potential daters to connect through technology is very large. Over 600 million people which does include China, of these more than 80% do not currently use dating product largely due to category stigma. We have grown our business by chipping away at the stigma and bringing resisters into the fold. It is possible that Facebook can convince some of the resisters to try dating through technology and therefore they may be able to help break some of the stigma and further expand the category. Given our large product portfolio, we think we could benefit from this. Now turning to the other Facebook question, is it likely that they change operating policies to our detriment? We don't think so. First based on discussions with Facebook we do not expect them to change any policies that relate to us. Second, our biggest dependency was the reliance on Facebook for Tinder log-in but we have effectively removed that method I just mentioned. We don't have much reliance on Facebook for anything else. Our proprietary matching algorithms have never relied on Facebook and now that most people sign-up using SMS most of the profile content is generated by the user. Even for those who sign-up using Facebook, we only receive age, gender and photo, we don't believe that any changes they will make will material impact our Tinder business. We are going to continue to execute at Tinder and on our other products. We have ton of experience in dating and all we care about is delivering a better and better experience for our customers. If we do that with maniacal focus customers will continue to come back and they'll thrive. I'm incredibly proud of the results this quarter and I look forward to continued great performance. And I will turn it over to Gary and he will take you through the financial results and our outlook.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks Mandy. Match Group had an incredible first quarter of 2018 from a financial perspective as we build on the strength we experienced in the back half of last year. We are reporting our highest year-over-year quarterly revenue growth as a public company and in Q1, we control the expenses to achieve our best operating income and EBITDA growth in two years resulting in a meaningful jump in margins. Our outlook for the rest of 2013 is extremely positive with increased expectations for full year revenue in EBITDA. Let's review the slides. on Slide 10, you can see that average subscribers reached over 7.4 million up 26% year-over-year and up two points from Q4 2017's year-over-year growth. The strength was evident in both North America, which grew average subscriber 17% year-over-year up 2 points from last quarter's year-over-year growth. And international which grew average subscribers 37% year-over-year also up from last quarter's growth rate. Tinder continue to be the story as it added 1.6 million average subscribers year-over-year an 87% growth rate and 368,000 sequentially. Tinder subscriber growth was stronger than we'd expected as Gold renewal rates exceeded our expectations. We said on the call last quarter that our assumptions might be conservative to the extent the one month Gold renewal rate and reserve rates continue with the trends we were seeing. That indeed turned out to be the case which helped drive Tinder subscriber growth in Q1 higher than our expectations. We discussed a number of times how Tinder Gold led to a surge in subscriber levels that began in Q3 2017. We expected this surge to moderate as we move further away from the introduction of Tinder Gold. That proved the case in Q1 as the 368,000 subscribers we added with a smaller increase than we've seen in Q3 and Q4 last year, but was higher than we'd expected because of the higher renewal rates. Strength in several of our other businesses also helped our subscriber trends. OkCupid domestically and Paris in Japan showed particular strength in the quarter and OurTime in Europe continues to grow. We also continue to see moderating subscriber declines at our affinity brands where trends are on track with our expectations. The decline at Affinity cut overall subscribers ex-Tinder to be down slightly. Overall company ARPU is up $0.05, 8% year-over-year to an all time high as a public company of $0.58. International ARPU benefited from FX rates. On a constant currency basis, international ARPU is up 7% to $0.52. Overall, ARPU was up $0.02 or 3.5% on a constant currency basis. Tinder Gold has had a major impact on ARPU. Tinder's APRU in the quarter grew 37% year-over-year. Tinder's ARPU continues to trend closer to the overall company ARPU. Tinder's ARPU has also been driven by accelerating à la carte sales which have increased in tandem with the likes you feature within Gold. Flipping to Slide 11, you can see that the subscriber in ARPU growth let to year-over-year total revenue growth of 36% up meaningfully from 28% last quarter. The last three quarters of all shown accelerating revenue growth. Excluding FX impact of $17 million year-over-year revenue growth would have been 31%. We demonstrated strength in all components of the top-line in Q1. Direct revenue grew 36% driven by 26% subscriber growth and ARPU that was up 8%. Overall, direct revenue as well as both the domestic and international components showed accelerated growth. Indirect revenue grew strong at 33% percent year-over-year as we continue to see growth in programmatic revenue at Tinder and we increased direct ad sales. Total revenue domestic direct revenue and international direct revenue growth rates were all the fastest we have achieved as a public company. EBITDA grew 60% due to the revenue growth and operating leverage. EBITDA margins were 34% in the quarter up from 29% in Q1 '17. Overall expenses as a percentage of revenue were 72% in Q1 compared to 80% in the prior year quarter. Sales and marketing expense for the quarter was up only $11 million year-over-year resulting in a decline in its percentage of revenue from 36% in Q1 '17 to 29% in Q1 '18 reflecting the ongoing shift to lower marketing spend in brands. The increases in marketing spend were at Tinder, OkCupid and Pairs; businesses with strong momentum and product wins as well as at OurTime as we continue to spend to rollout that brand across Europe. We reduced marketing spend at our Match, Meetic and Affinity brands. The Affinity reduction is a continuation of a trend that has been going on for several quarters now. The Match and Meetic reductions were driven by lower efficiency of marketing spend particularly TV. We continue to be very judicious with our marketing spend in these businesses. Stock-based comp expense in the quarter declined by 6% to just under $17 million. The decline in SBC and lower depreciation as a percentage of revenue led to operating income growing faster than EBITDA. Operating income margins rose 8 points to 28% compared to 20% in Q1 2017. On Slide 12, you can see that the business continues to generate significant cash. Operating cash flow for the quarter grew 36% year-over-year to $122 million and free cash flow increased 39% to $117 million. CapEx is only $5 million in the quarter. Free cash flow conversion from EBITDA in the quarter was 85% above our target of approximately 75% for the full year. Our current trailing 12-month leverage is 2.4x of growth basis and 1.9x on a net basis. Our cash balance of $288 million provides us solid financial flexibility for strategic M&A opportunities, buybacks, debt pay down or other uses. In Q1, we used $105 million dollars of our cash to repurchase shares to offset dilution from employee option exercises and to pay withholding taxes on the option exercise. We have now repurchased a total of a million shares under our six million share repurchase authorization. By using cash to pay withholding taxes reached 1.9 fewer dilutive securities. We do not pay any cash taxes in Q1 and do not expect to be materially U.S. cash tax payer until 2020. On Slide 13, we discuss our outlook. The strength in Q1 led to a meaningful beat compared to the expectations we laid out last quarter. We expect that strength to carry over to Q2. We've continued strong performance at Tinder coupled with operating leverage and stability across our other brands. Specifically for Q2, we expect revenue of $405 million to $415 million or 32% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Q2 revenue will continue to benefit from the impact of Gold subscribers that have been added over the past three quarters. Q2'18 is the last quarter, that does not have the Gold effect in the prior year quarter. We expect a $160 million to $165 million EBITDA in Q2 or approximately 48% year-over-year growth at the midpoint and margin of close to 40%. We believe that we have largely put the surge in Tinder subscribers from Gold into the rearview mirror. Although the surge lasted a quarter longer than we had initially expected to the strength we've seen in renewal rates. We think Q2 will reflect a more typical level of sequential additions at Tinder between 200,000 and 250,000. And at this level once again be the norm at least until the new Tinder revenue feature is rolled out. As Mandy discussed in Slide 4 highlights, Tinder clearly is much more than a subscribers' growth story. It has multiple revenue drivers including sub-growth, à la carte strength and overall ARPU improvement. With opportunities to optimize price and merchandise more effectively that we intend to pursue as the year progresses. As a result of continued strength at Tinder particularly stronger first half revenues as Gold taken renewal rates are running higher than we initially expected. We are raising our full year outlook by $100 million to $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion of total revenue. At the midpoint that would be 24% year-over-year revenue growth. As a reminder, our back half of 2018 comps will be much tougher given the positive impact of Gold in the second half of last year. Our revenue outlook for our non-Tinder businesses is largely unchanged. We are primarily focused on optimizing profitability in these businesses. We will not chase subscriber growth at the expense of profitability. For full year 2018, we're raising EBITDA expectations by $50 million to $600 million to $650 million, 33% growth at the midpoint more than double 2017's growth rate of 16%. The higher EBITDA expectations primarily reflect the additional revenue particularly at Tinder less additional IRPs. Margin would be nearly 38% at the midpoint representing an improvement of nearly 3 percentage points from the 2017 figure. We're expecting to over deliver on our margin expansion expectation in 2018. We continue to believe that 40% plus is a reasonable long-term target for the company's margins. Tinder continues to experience meaningful operating leverage even with solid investment levels in product and marketing spend to drive new users globally, Tinder EBITDA margins in Q1 reached north of 40% for the second consecutive quarter. We expect this to be the case again for Q2 with room for additional expansion over time. We do expect higher Q3 marketing spend at Tinder as we focus intently on the back-to-school opportunity for university students. There are several key items that we're keeping an eye on which will affect where in our current ranges we land for the full year. These include, first, the new Tinder revenue feature. The new feature is far along in development and we plan to test it over the coming months and to introduce it in the second half of the year. The precise timing and the success of this feature will have an impact on whether we are able to reach the upper half of our revenue range for the year based on the new rate guide. Second, data privacy and regulatory compliance requirements are shifting quickly. Certain shifts that result could require us to make product changes delay their product roadmap or dedicate resources to make adjustments. Our outlook includes GDPR an all known data privacy and regulatory impact. One last note, for everyone's modeling purposes, I wanted to mention the last time I said our GAAP effective tax rate would be in the low 20s percent range for 2018. It is difficult to predict the pace of employee option exercise and the impact on tax rates. But based on what we have seen so far, our 2018 GAAP effective tax rate could be meaningfully below the low 20s rate we previously indicated for 2018 and is likely to be volatile quarter-to-quarter. Stepping back, we really could not have hoped for a stronger quarter to start the year. The Q1 performance has led to additional optimism for the full year and we're pleased to be able to raise our outlook so meaningfully. We believe our outlook now much more accurately reflects what to expect from us this year. We have confidence that Match Group will deliver its strongest year yet as a public company in 2018. We will now answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open the line to questions.
Operator:
Yes. Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And this morning's first question comes from Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets.
Dan Salmon:
Good morning everyone. Maybe thanks for addressing the Facebook related concerns head on and in particular on Slide 8 here this chart around Tinder registrations not using the sign-up and how we've seen this pretty significant change there since you launched that. Of course, there are other ways that you interact with Facebook, you spend marketing dollars there. You've also got an advertising sales partnership with Facebook audience network. Are there any other material changes in your relationship that you might expect going forward as they come into this space a little bit more efficiently? Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Great. All right. Okay. So you pointed out Dan that we definitely have a multifaceted relationship with Facebook and they've been a long-term partner for us. We have been in conversations since the announcement at the executive levels and they've certainly indicated to us that they don't plan to change either the [art] [ph] or the advertising relationship. And they dealt with these conflicts with similar relationships in other verticals like e-commerce with Marketplace. The good news is which I mentioned is that our reliance on sign-up has declined dramatically since last summer. On the advertising side, what you pointed out a few of our brands spend on Facebook particularly Match, Meetic and [indiscernible] 50 plus brand up here in the U.S. That said it's one of the many channels one of many digital channels that we use and it's a relatively small percentage of our spend across all those businesses within the single digit. And we believe that as long as spending on Facebook is ROI positive and a sufficient spend for us and Facebook doesn't misuse our data, which we don't think they will, we will continue to spend there. So a Facebook audience network is the last question you had, can we have a great relationship with them? It makes sense on both sides, but there there's definitely alternatives in the market. And to the extent we would need to go somewhere else we would. But at this point, we don't think that makes sense. And then, I just want to sort of take a step back and all of that said, they announced last week that they are an overt competitor in dating, so we're just going to have to monitor and adapt as needed.
Dan Salmon:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen.
John Blackledge:
Great. Thank you. Two questions, the 75% of Tinder registrations that don't use the Facebook sign-up, can you just remind what time period does that cover and how long is the sign-up process, if users don't use the Facebook sign-up? And then, second question on Tinder, so the à la carte growth was really strong in 1Q, if you could provide some more color that would be great. And what percentage of Tinder revenue was à la carte in 1Q '18? Thank you.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. Let me tackle the first one. So the rollout started in June/July timeframe and after about two months 75% of new users were using alternative sign-up and I mentioned in my remarks that that chart is you U.S. but it's the same picture globally. And then, just to address questions you had about the process and how easy it is, it's a pretty easy process to download your profile rates. We looked at our -- virtually identical between Facebook off and SMS. And the quality of the profile through both of these flows are similar so we don't see a degradation in quality and it really doesn't create much more friction for the user. I mean on the à la carte, Gary, you would…
Gary Swidler:
Yes, sure. And in the à la carte, I think you should think about sort of two components to it. First of all, Gold has driven à la carte increases generally so that helps significantly particularly boosts which worked very well with the Gold subscription. That's been a component of it. We've also seen a lot of strength in Super Like's lately. So it's multifaceted on both of our à la carte Super Like and booster driving the strength there. In terms of the percentage, we talked previously about it being kind of a third or so of the overall subscriber revenue at Tinder. As gold has driven subscription revenue higher that percentage actually come down a little bit. So I'd say probably just a little bit south of 30%, around 30% is the way to think about it. But it's not because of weakness in à la carte, it's actually because the strength on the subscriber side.
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question comes from Ross Sandler with Barclays.
Ross Sandler:
Hi, guys. Two questions. Back to the Facebook topic. If we take it up a level how much of the top of the funnel MAU growth either organic or paid comes from Facebook. Not just for Tinder but across all brands. You mentioned single-digit percent of marketing. But what about just inbound kind of traffic. And then, the second question is on GDPR, you mentioned in the guidance, potentially some risk around GDPR. Can you just remind us what the revenue or sub-base in Europe is today and what you -- any additional color on what might happen post to EPR? Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. I will take the -- so Ross Facebook for us is really not an organic channel. It's a pay channel for us. If we look at all the registrations across all of our products that percentage of registrations is from Facebook is really small. It's like around 5%. So it's not a meaningful number for us. In terms of MAU growth across all businesses, the vast majority is organic. It's like well over half is organic. And if you look at the businesses that pay for acquisition it's really Match, OurTime and Meetic in Europe. There is a number of channels that are much bigger. So you've got TV and over the top in display and search and Facebook is probably around the third or fourth channel so we don't see a big risk there. And you know as I said, we'll continue to spend especially if the spend is efficient on Facebook it's been a good channel though relatively small channel for us.
Gary Swidler:
And Ross on GDPR just to be very clear. All of the impact from GDPR, in fact, all of the known privacy and regulatory things that we need to deal with are included in our guidance. The GDPR has been a big effort across the company to make sure we comply by the May 25 deadline and we're on track to do that. And we spent a lot of time in resources and money to make sure that we're doing what we need to do. It's not massive amounts but it's there and it's all included enough in our numbers for the year. And there's also revenue effects because we're adjusting auto renewals for our place where we control the payments and so forth. So all that is baked in, but there are revenue and cost impacts of GDPR and all the compliance things that are going on. Again, all of that is baked into our numbers for this year. The thing that is not baked in is what we don't know. So to the extent other jurisdictions put in new privacy things that we need to comply with and we don't currently comply with or other effects happen out of this much more intense focus on privacy that would potentially move around our outlook. But we think would be manageable within probably the ranges we have, but that's the thing that's not factored in. The known things including GDPR are clearly factored in at this point. Next question please.
Operator:
Yes. Thank you. And the next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. So, two questions, one Facebook and then a business question. So just can you help us understand Facebook Terms of Service seems to suggest they can use all of the data they learn from you for their own benefit, so any views on that? How do you think about it? And then, there's been a big question kind of why Facebook is doing this and those of us who have looked at the sector for a long time have generally believed in that people do want to keep their dating and personal behavior separate. When I think about well gardened, they say Google and Travel, for years they've thought about entering the space and said they'd rather just collect an advertising fee from the big players. So maybe you can pontificate a bit more why you think Facebook is wanting to do this as opposed to try to maybe extract just a greater tax from you on the advertising side? And then just business wise, on the reduction spend, marketing spend, Gary is this just a function of like ROI requirements and you're not seeing it. And just how should we think about kind of -- if TV continues to be less effective how you continue to drive growth with paid marketing? Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. So number of questions. Let me take the first one, which is around Facebook competing against us with our data. We definitely looked at the Terms of Service and it does give them broad rights. But what you're bringing up truly is like a business ethics question about how they use our data. And if this is an issue that they've addressed with us head-on and executive level conversations we've had obviously since last week's announcement. And they have indicated that they are not going to use information that about our users that they receive through the authentication relationship or the advertising relationship and any targeting that they would do would be based on information that's available for everyone. We've been a long partner for them and I mean honestly I can't imagine Facebook would want to compromise the partnership or more importantly, it's a trust issue. And the users trust is part of these partnerships. And so my sense is right now, it's still too early to tell. But we have been assured that that there's going to be integrity in these -- in the relationship. And then in terms of competition about how we compete i.e., at the end of the day I really don't think, I'll get to your next question. I think don't people are going to be comfortable mixing their dating life with Facebook and so user targeting is not nearly as much of a big concern of mine at the moment. And then in terms of why Facebook is doing this. I can't speculate. I'm not sure we sort of laid out the remarks about the challenges they will have especially in balancing the core user experience with dating, which is a great business but it's also a business -- I mean dating can be tough. Online dating is a factor of that. Someone told me that dating someone is great when you are really into someone, but dating in general can be hard. And so we deal with all the dynamics around dating and I think that by introducing a dating feature into their product they will have to do that too. So I'm not sure I think we'll learn more as more details are told the market.
Gary Swidler:
And Jason in terms of your question on the ROIs on marketing, we're not moving our hurdles in any way. It's not a question of the hurdles being changed. The real reality is that TV has become more expensive and the cost of bringing in a user that way has gone up as eyeballs have really moved from TV to digital, which is as engaging, isn't as effective. TV has always been a great source for us. So we're trying to maintain our discipline on our hurdles and to the extent that means we can't spend as much, we are not spending as much. It's as simple as that. Obviously, we're focused on the impact of that and hoping additional channels open up that we could find effective and hit our hurdles and spend and if we do, we definitely will do that. In the interim, we're making the improvements on the products that we talked about trying to drive more word of mouth and replace some of what we've lost on the TV side in other ways. So that's the strategy around particularly Match and Meetic where the effect of what's happening with TV is the most pronounced.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question comes from Eric Sheridan with UBS.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks for taking the question. Maybe two with respect to the focus around Tinder and growth. One, want to know, how you're thinking about sort of allocating resources whether it be R&D dollars prime product, or marketing behind issues around subscriber growth, or monetization awareness on a global scale, one of those areas of focus within the company to continue to drive the momentum. And second, coming out of that what sort of the message you think investors should have about growth versus margins for Tinder as we look not only in 2018, but beyond? Thanks guys.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. Let me take a crack at it. First of all, we have really been investing on both the product and marketing side at Tinder. And we see real things we're trying to accomplish in both to continue to rollout product that is enhancing engagement and driving to users as we talk about as well as roll out some revenue features. And so we continue to add headcount there, we continue to add top class engineering talent, AI talent and we've been spending on product and bringing engineering to drive product. So as far as that goes clearly, we see that Tinder is our growth engine and we're investing where we can to drive the product at Tinder. And similarly, on the marketing side, we didn't have to market initially as Mandy talked about in her remarks at Tinder and Tinder grew virally around the world out of the box in a way that we've never seen before. But there are still a lot of things to do at Tinder now at this stage of its development, which include continuing to raise awareness of the product in international markets. And we're spending money there where necessary to try to drive awareness in India, in Korea elsewhere in Asia where we see real opportunity and we're going to continue to do that. As well as in the U.S. where Tinder needs to continue to evolve in terms of how people perceive the product. And we're spending money there as well. And to work through further involvement with the younger demographic as people age and turn 18 and go to college to try to drive some of those users to Tinder. So, all those things are key priorities for us and Tinder is an incredibly profitable business as we talked about. And we're spending I think very appropriately in both product and marketing to achieve our strategic objectives. And in fact, if you go back to 2017, which seems like a long time to go back, isn't that long ago, you'll remember that we talked about reducing margins at the company at Tinder in particular because we had to start spending on marketing and to try to drive user growth in part with some marketing. And we took a step back in margin and we said overall longer term we think that will be useful from a growth perspective and we'll see margin enhancement at Tinder over time and that's in fact what's happening and you're starting to see the results of all that now as Tinder's margins are expanding, while at the same time Tinder is achieving tremendous growth. And so we're really enjoying both margin and growth at Tinder and that was the long-term plan that we've put in place.
Operator:
Okay. Thank you. And the next question comes from Sam Kemp of Piper Jaffray.
Sam Kemp:
Great. Thanks for taking the question. So looking at the resegmentation that you did with North America versus international subs part of the OkCupid allocation looks like subs were growing at least 12% by the end of 2017 in international. Can you just talk about how is that continued into 2018 now? And is OkCupid finding a bigger opportunity outside the U.S. than it has inside the U.S.? And then, the other brand I wanted to talk about was you've called out Paris several quarters in a row now. Can you just talk about how big is that business today perhaps can you just contextualize a little bit more where the Japanese and South Korean dating markets are in their evolution?
Gary Swidler:
Mandy, you might take the Pairs question.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Sure. Yes. So, let me talk about Pairs because we have talked about it, we mentioned in the slides. So if you look -- we do think there is opportunity in the Asian market generally and I'll talk a little bit about Japan. But in the Asian markets there's population growth, there is young population, there's smartphone penetration and the fact is there's still a real cultural stigma in dating and so I equate it to what it was like 15, 20 years ago in the U.S. when online dating first came onto the forefront. On your question specifically on Pairs, it's one of the biggest economies in the world. And then it lags in U.S. and Europe in terms of dating penetration for the reasons I just mentioned. It is a high growth business and we don't break out the specific business by business, but you can roughly compare the revenue to the size of about OkCupid or PlentyOfFish. And for parents in particular, it is a product that targets people looking for a serious relationship and they've seen a real -- we've seen a real growth in that market despite the fact that there's government regulations and you actually can't advertise in a lot of channels including television marketing. So as we are hopefully -- the market is destigmatized we will have to see opportunity to spend more and hopefully open up some of those channels. But we just think that in Japan, [indiscernible] particular need for these products and people are willing to pay for them. And the team is really strong in Japan and we think that we can take these learnings and use those learning for other markets particularly for South Korea. So we'll see. But I think there's some real opportunity both with the Pairs brand as well as Tinder. So, well, talk a little bit about Tinder because you didn't ask me that, but I think that is also a great opportunity for us in Asia and in Japan. We've seen real growth in younger segments in Asia. And these are the two main brands both pairs and Tinder that we're going to go after. And then, the last thing which I just want to address because I think it's one of the reasons why we feel confident and bullish around that market is that there was a real question about whether or not people would pay in Asia and we've seen in particular in Pairs. It is our highest LTV, and our highest ARPU business, so people really are willing to pay for our products.
Gary Swidler:
And Sam maybe just give a little more color on a couple of your questions. I think on the international side, ex-Tinder and Tinder is obviously driving a lot of international growth. But ex-Tinder, Pairs and the new OurTime brand in Europe are probably driving the preponderance of that growth. OkCupid has a small business internationally, but I don't think it's a major contributor to the overall growth that you alluded to. We would consider, however, trying to put OkCupid internationally. We think now that product is working pretty well. We're seeing real resonance in the U.S., continuing to expand internationally could be part of the plan for OkCupid. And in fact PlentyOfFish also has seen some strength in some international markets [indiscernible] speaking markets and we could push PlentyOfFish internationally as well. So those are things that we are thinking about. The one thing that overall that you highlight that I also just wanted to mention though is strengthening OkCupid and we talked about how we are investing behind OkCupid on the marketing side, and we're pleased with the product wins they've had there. You can see that over the past couple of quarters OkCupid's growth has accelerated meaningfully and it is performing very strongly. So it is valid to point that out overall that OkCupid is performing well.
Sam Kemp:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question comes from Chris Merwin with Goldman Sachs.
Chris Merwin:
Okay. Thank you. I just had a couple, the first one was on Facebook. Can you talk about how the API changes affect how data from public Facebook profiles flow into the Tinder app or users that signed up through Facebook have to manually re-enter their information into their Tinder profile and can they still see friends in common and if not do you think this change in the user experience in any meaningful way? And then, just a second one on the trajectory of the core business. I think Gary you mentioned that subs may have been down slightly in the quarter was that the case for revenue as well and is flattish growth the right way to think about the trajectory of the core for the rest of the year and the context of your updated guidance? Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay, Chris. Let me take that Facebook question. So in addition to credentials or authentication really the only information that we get from Facebook API is age, gender and photo. Then really what happens in the ecosystem because remember people want to sort of put their best foot forward and impress people on the dating world. And so they will enrich their profile with additional photos that's in our -- that they give to us within that ecosystem. And so we get additional photos, buy music from Spotify, which is on the profile and we use it on the input work and school. So we don't see a lot of friction, users will do that for the reason I stated before that they want to put their best foot forward and for users who previously signed up their Facebook their profile on Tinder remains unchanged.
Gary Swidler:
I think in terms of the revenue question. Revenue is basically flat in those businesses and the non-Tinder businesses. And I think that's our expectation as the year progresses, the revenue is going to stay flat. I think we're thinking along the same lines on the subs side. The question around all of that is something that we've talked about a little bit throughout the call which is, what is the marketing opportunity and do we find opportunities to spend. To the extend we don't find opportunities to spend that will put some pressure on sub-growth in the non-Tinder businesses particularly at Match and Meetic and so that's what we're watching that's probably where the variability is sub-growth being sort of connected to the marketing spend opportunities. So we'll have to see how that all plays out as the year goes on. But generally the assumptions around revenue being flat subs being flat still kind of our operating principle.
Chris Merwin:
Okay. thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the last question today comes from Douglas Anmuth with JPMorgan.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thanks for taking the question. Just thinking higher level here, in the slides you talk about 600 million unattached singles globally, if we think about Tinder's having maybe around 35 to 40 million maybe higher MAUs. Could you just discuss how you think about Tinder's TAM and what those potential longer term penetration of paid subscribers as a percentage of MAUs could look like, is there any reason that paid member penetration would be structurally lower than other premium services for example like a Spotify over time? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. Let me take a crack at that. And I'm going to try to do without sort of confirming some of the numbers that you throughout that we haven't really thrown out. But as far as the 600 million TAM, obviously, we think that's the right number. We put in our Tinder's demographic -- core demographic being the kind of 20 to 30 year old range. So rough estimate at the top of my head would be kind of a quarter of that 600 million TAM is probably in Tinder's core demographic globally. So that obviously still a very big market around 150 million people globally ex-China. And we believe that Tinder is well positioned to keep capturing more and more of that market over time. That's why we're spending the marketing dollars, that's why we're focused internationally and putting forth those efforts because we see significant opportunity particularly in those developing markets globally. In terms of kind of payer penetration level, the only thing we can tell you is we feel very confident that we can drive those numbers higher and higher over time. Obviously, it depends on the product roadmap and what we roll out and whether people find those features appealing. But if past is any prelude on that we continue to have a lot of success rolling out features that users find appealing and are willing to pay for it. In fact, the adoption from payer standpoint of our recent features has been incredibly strong. We think we're still in that strong adoption point. So we'll expect to continue to make progress there. We will continue to drive payer penetration higher, what the ceiling is, how it compares with others, is really hard to say. It will depend on a lot of different things including how we price the different features what we offer for free. Our category is different than music and a variety of ways for example are different than other categories because it's something that's incredibly important to people and they see incredible value in it which is why we've been able to continue to drive overall ARPU up at Tinder. And so those are I think some of the factors to think about as you think about kind of where the penetration levels can go. So but the only thing I'd say is, we definitely our confidence is growing higher, hard to say kind of where that overall ceiling maybe and it will depend on kind of how we approach a variety of different things as we balance everything out.
Douglas Anmuth:
Okay. Then any comments just on overall MAU numbers where you are now for Tinder?
Gary Swidler:
Not today.
Douglas Anmuth:
All right. Hopefully soon. Thank you, Gary.
Gary Swidler:
Hey, thanks. Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. And as it was at this point last question, I would like to return the call to management for any closing comments.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Sure. Thanks for joining the call. The one thing I would say is, we spent a lot of time talking about the announcement last week. But, we didn't spend nearly as much time talking about the thing that we love to do and that we deliver everyday which is really product innovation. And we feel like, we did many years ago crazy category and are constantly evolving it and disrupting it. And I think that, I just want to end by saying that the reason that we feel that the future is bright is because we got teams across the globe that are really focusing on, how do we create phenomenal product that really change really going to be in great shape.
Operator:
Thank you. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Executives:
Mandy Ginsberg - CEO Gary Swidler - CFO Lance Barton - SVP, IR & Corporate Development
Analysts:
Christopher Merwin - Goldman Sachs Jason Helfstein - Oppenheimer Ross Sandler - Barclays Douglas Anmuth - JPMorgan Brent Thill - Jefferies Samuel Kemp - Piper Jaffray Kunal Thakkar - Deutsche Bank Mark Kelley - Citigroup Daniel Salmon - BMO Capital Markets Victor Anthony - Aegis Capital
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Also joining the call today are Mandy Ginsberg, CEO of Match Group; and Gary Swidler, CFO of Match Group. Mandy and Gary will review Q4 investor presentation that you can access on our Investor Web site and then they will open it up for questions. But before we start, I’d like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release, in our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that out of the way, I’ll now turn the call over to Mandy.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Thanks, Lance, and thanks everyone for joining us on the call this morning. As you have already seen from the Q4 and full year results, our business is in great shape with tremendous momentum heading into 2018. Before we get into the numbers, I just want to start off by saying how excited I am not just about our financial performance but about this business and how our products impact people’s lives around the world. Match Group’s products have truly shaped society and serve a fundamental human need, a need for connection, relationships and love. A decade ago in the U.S., only 3% of Internet users who were married or in a relationship met their partner online. Today, more than a third of relationships start online and that number is even lower outside of the U.S. So while we’ve made great strides, we still see opportunity for the category to grow. People are meeting people they never would have met without our apps across every demographic, age, race and religion. Today, we have customers in a 190 countries and we have a truly global approach to this category. We don’t build products for one type of person. We build products for everyone, everywhere and I intend to ensure that we are consistently innovating and delivering products and features to address the needs of men and of course from my perspective, especially women, who are looking to meet someone new. We believe that this category will continue to grow as the stigma further erodes and more people around the world turn to these products. Let’s start with Slide 4. You can see that Tinder continues to be a driving force for us nearly doubling subscribers for the second year in a row and more than doubling revenue in 2017. As a result, Tinder accounted for roughly 30% of Match Group revenue in 2017. The bulk of Tinder’s revenue, around 90%, comes from Tinder’s subscribers in the form of purchases of Tinder Plus, Tinder Gold and à la carte features like Boost and Super Like. The remaining small percentage of Tinder’s revenue comes from advertising and from those users who buy à la carte features but who are not subscribers. This revenue is not included in our ARPU calculations. Sequential average subscriber additions for Tinder in Q4 were higher than last quarter coming in at 544,000 to take Tinder above the 3 million average subscriber mark. It’s quite an impressive feat to have reached this milestone less than three years after launching monetization]. We’re also excited that Tinder was the second highest grossing non-gaming app in the world last year behind only Netflix but higher than household names like Spotify, LINE, Pandora and HBO. As we’ve talked about on our last call, subscriber surge in Q4 is due to a number of factors. The most obvious one is the stock effect from the launch of Tinder Gold in late Q3 but also due to the non-monetization product work we did in the first half of 2017. We’d expect that Q4 average subscriber additions to be comparable to Q3 but renewal rates for shorter-term packages of Gold and the percentage of both new and existing subscriber purchasing Gold come in above our expectations which is driven better than expected subscriber growth. But it’s important for everyone to remember that Tinder’s sequential subscriber additions over the last two quarters are not indicative of what you should expect to see starting in Q1 due to the stock and flow effect we’ve mentioned in the past. When a new feature is exposed to an entire existing user base, that new feature provides a big surge in subscribers. The surge is what we refer to as the stock effect and this effect has been very evident in the number of average subscribers we added in both Q3 and Q4 after the introduction of the Likes You feature which we merchandize as Tinder Gold. Once all the users have been exposed to the new feature as our users were with Likes You in late Q3, the surge of new subscribers will ultimately subside and going forward the percentage of subscribers coming from older cohorts return to normal levels. Subscribers and revenue will ultimately be higher than they were before the new feature release, but we do not expect sequential subscriber growth to sustain at these elevated levels beyond the initial surge that we saw in Q3 and Q4. So now moving on to Slide 5. Before we get into some of the future plans for Tinder, I wanted to take a moment to talk about the past. Tinder is really a force of nature that has changed the landscape for meeting people you don’t know, particularly for people in their 20s. It was the first product in the category to achieve viral growth across all geographies. Frankly, Tinder is in a league of its own. Other brands in the category, including other brands we operate, must spend real marketing dollars to achieve a fraction of the growth that we have seen globally at Tinder. However, we also believe marketing spend can be deployed in a smart way behind strong momentum and to distance ourselves from competition. That’s our plan in international markets for Tinder. And on the product front, Tinder has been on the cutting edge of innovation since its inception in 2012 inventing the swipe gesture which has since become this cultural phenomenon swipe right or swipe left. It is often imitated on mobile products. Tinder also invented the double blind option where two users need to like each other before they can message. In fact, these features are so innovative that Tinder was recently granted a patent in the dating category by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office which we feel is very valuable. To build on the success, there are a number of things on track for Tinder in 2018. I know many investors are focused on our next monetization release, but as we’ve said before the biggest drivers of long-term revenue growth are free features that make Tinder simple, fun and a useful product creating a vibrant community of users that in turn drive word of mouth. This focus on the customer is key in driving new users as well as keeping our customers engaged. The success of Gold allows us to focus on developing features that make the overall product experience better for our entire user base. That means you’re not going to see new monetization features on Tinder until the second half of 2018, which is a similar cadence to our product release in 2017. The first, the Post-Match experience. Tinder has always been a really efficient straightforward swipe machine and it creates mutual matches that enables communication between two users that have expressed interest in one another. The product is extremely effective and simple but it can be somewhat limited. We’re currently testing new features in a number of international markets that provides for an engaging visual and more contextual post-match experience to bring you deeper into the activities of the people you’ve already matched with. Our goal is to provide users with more context to spark fresh and relevant conversations with their matches. The early results from the work has been encouraging as we made positive strides in resurrecting dormant matches and increasing time spent in apps. We’ve invested a lot of resources around Artificial Intelligence and Super Likeable and one of the first visible examples of what we are doing there. It’s a pre-match recommendation powered by a predictive algorithm that we are now testing in a few markets. This is the first in a series of features that will be more focused on enhancing the experience of our female users and we’ve seen higher engagement by women who interact with this feature. We’re working on servicing information women find more relevant and providing more control on how and when matches communicate with them. I’m excited about these initiatives because improving the product for women is an important priority for Tinder and personally it’s a big priority for me. We are also actively developing a series of location-based features which we believe has the ability to meaningfully enhance the Tinder experience. Tinder has incredible scale given its viral growth and the dating context provides a level of intense that traditional social networks can’t capture. And overlaying location is a vector to be compelling especially to a young, mobile and very social audience. We’ve been vague about these features really on purpose because it’s a competitive disadvantage to disclose before we launch anything, but we didn’t want people to lose sight of the fact that it remains a focus for us. Overall, there remains a lot of exciting product work on Tinder and we think that this is going to position the business for continued growth long term. Okay, next slide. Turning to our other businesses, starting on Slide 6. Match made important strides on the mobile products in 2017 and was able to achieve slight growth in year-over-year average subscribers in the fourth quarter. We did the hard product work to transform it from a desktop product to a mobile-first product and we finally achieved subscriber stability in this business. In 2017, we launched mobile-only features on Match like video, location and in 2018 we will unleash a new set of mobile-first features that will double down on Match’s core value proposition around relationship intent for people who come to Match and they’re serious about finding a relationship and we’re building out features to help improve that outcome. For example, we’re launching a coaching product which is like a virtual wing-woman to help users throughout their experience from creating a profile to striking up conversations. These features also allow us to tell a compelling product story in our marketing channels. In 2018, a big focus for the team will be on the top of the funnel growth to address the shifting marketing landscape from TV to digital. We’re continuing to see the impact of these shifts in the ad market, particularly TV channel in the first few weeks of 2018 as the efficiency of our spend is lower than it has been previously. We are disciplined marketers and we will manage to spend accordingly to hit ROI thresholds. In our Affinity brand, we’ve been able to right-size our marketing spend with ROI thresholds but we still have work to do to refine the product to be mobile-first. The goal at our time is to simplify the mobile experience for our users aged 50 plus who are not mobile natives. We’ll be introducing profile questions and conversation starters around relative pop culture topics from the 1960s and '70s to make the product more relevant for an older demo. We’re also testing a new mobile app to target Latino singles called Chispa. Univision is our distribution partner in these efforts. Chispa combines our product knowledge and tech expertise with the reach and market knowledge of Univision which is the largest Latino-focused broadcast network. While we’re still in early testing, I’m excited about the potential to have an app that meets the needs of such a large and growing demo that has been underserved largely by existing broad-based dating apps. Turning to the next slide to Slide 7, OkCupid has had a remarkable turnaround led by Elie Seidman who is now our CEO at Tinder. Elie faced a number of product and brand challenges when we joined the company in 2016. While the OkCupid tech had been ported to mobile, the product user experience on mobile really hadn’t adapted to be relevant in the landscape of modern mobile-first apps. Last year, she rallied the team around on a mission of making OkCupid truly a modern mobile dating app for substance, not selfies. They took a series of bold steps to achieve the vision in both product and marketing and the team created a brand new profile card, elevated the iconic questions within the product experience, completely replaced the on-boarding flows and transformed the discovery section of the app. These frontend improvements were combined with a significant upgrade to the backend. Together, they led to increasing conversion on OkCupid’s mobile apps and modest growth in subscribers. I worked with Elie for almost two years watching him mobilize the team and transform the product while always obsessing about customer experience. Elie’s entrepreneurial experience, tech and product jobs, along with a few years under his belt in the category has made him the perfect guy for the CEO role at Tinder where he started a few months ago. We’ve just announced the new CEO at OkCupid, Ariel Charytan who joined us from Amazon where he was the SVP leading product and design for Audible. We’re lucky to have his caliber of talent in the organization. With the OkCupid product in a great place, we decided it was time to increase our marketing efforts to drive awareness and consideration among urban millennial women looking for relationships. The team has done a great job of getting influencers and press to reconsider the brand which resulted in a significant uptick in press coverage late last year. To built on that momentum, in Q1 we started investing brand marketing dollars to fuel additional word of mouth growth. Keep in mind we are not talking about big TV dollars similar to other brands. In three U.S. cities, we just started running a fairly provocative ad campaign that is already creating buzz and driving female interest. Our PlentyOfFish business continues to benefit from learnings from across the Match Group brand. We’re implementing price and package optimization based on best practices with our other businesses and are building on the momentum we’ve had after launching à la carte monetization features. PlentyOfFish also continues to lean into their value proposition which is getting people into more and better conversations. It rolled out a number of new features consistent with the mission and similar to OkCupid, we’ll be testing marketing spend to see if we can generate additional word of mouth growth in markets outside the U.S. Slide 8, we’ve made a lot of progress in Europe last year with the launch of OurTime to focus on an underserved demo in the region, people over 50 years old. The product is now in four markets and we’ll be rolling it out to more markets in Europe throughout 2018. Meetic has continued to evolve Lara, as an AI virtual assistant that was highlighted in the F8 Developers Conference last year. By adding more features and interaction modes, Lara can now assist with profile searches and customer support in addition to profile registration. She speaks 10 languages in Europe and has already provided assistance on over 1 million customer requests and we are showcasing this technology in one our European marketing campaign this year. It’s also important to highlight the work we’ve been doing in Europe to focus on improving the product experience for women. Meetic launched the Gentleman’s Badge which encourages men to take actions and embrace behaviors that are appreciated by women. We’ve seen that men with a Badge receives 30% more attention than others. And last, in Asia, Pairs was a great brand that was the second highest grossing dating app in Japan last year. It has also leveraged best practices from across the Match portfolio and successfully launched à la carte features last year. Pairs remains a great example of how we can grow our geographic footprint through M&A and we will continue to seek opportunities that allow us to expand our portfolio throughout Asia. It’s a large and growing region with real opportunity for growth in our existing brands like Pairs and Tinder as well as new offerings. And with that, I’m going to pass it to Gary to go through the numbers.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Mandy. Before I go through the rest of the slides, I wanted to clarify that we’re no longer using the term PMC but are instead using the term subscriber. Similarly, we’re now using the industry standard ARPU rather than ARPPU. We think this terminology is clear and more common industry practice. Nothing has changed with our historical numbers or with the way we measure these numbers. It is simply a change in nomenclature. Precise definitions of our operating metrics can be found on Page 2 of the presentation and at the end of our earnings release. Okay, now onto the remaining slides. On Slide 10, you can see that in Q4 we exceeded 7 million average subscribers with year-over-year growth of 24%. This growth was driven by the record sequential increase in average subs at Tinder. In addition, Match and OkCupid both grew subs modestly year-over-year in Q4 and we saw slightly moderating subscriber declines at our Affinity brands. Year-over-year sub growth rates, ex-Tinder, improved sequentially. We had 15% North American sub growth, the best we’ve seen since Q4 2015 and 36% international sub growth, the best rate in eight quarters on a pro forma basis. Tinder comprises a larger percentage of our international business which helps explain the faster growth rate internationally. ARPU for the quarter was up 4% driven by a 1% increase in North America and 11% internationally. On a constant currency basis, international ARPU is up 7%. Tinder Gold was the main driver of the ARPU increases globally as Tinder’s ARPU in the quarter grew 32% year-over-year. Tinder’s impact on ARPU is more pronounced in our international business. Overall, company ARPU went from $0.53 in Q4 '16 to $0.55 in Q4 '17. Flipping to Slide 11, you can see that the sub and ARPU growth led to total year-over-year revenue growth of 28%, up from 19% last quarter. This fulfilled our expectation for revenue growth to continue to accelerate as the year progressed. Direct revenue grew 29% driven by 24% subscriber growth and ARPU that was up 4%. Our international business grew direct revenue 51% driven by 36% subscriber growth and ARPU up 11%. Our domestic business grew 16% in direct revenue due to 15% growth in subscribers and 1% growth in ARPU. Our international business now accounts for 44% of total direct revenue. Indirect revenue grew 9% year-over-year as we started to see the impact of the Facebook relationship at Tinder more than offset declines in the non-Tinder brands. Total revenue, domestic direct revenue and international direct revenue growth rates were all the fastest we have achieved as a public company on a pro forma basis. Total revenue was above the expectations we laid out last quarter as Tinder Gold renewal and re-subscription rates were better than we expected. We had very little history to forecast Gold metrics on our call last quarter. We adopted what we thought was a realistic view but it ultimately turned out to be slightly conservative which led to the beat in this quarter. EBITDA grew 20% in Q4 due to the revenue growth, partially offset by higher Tinder operating costs and higher IAP fees. Year-over-year, we spent up by about $15 million in marketing to take advantage of the product momentum, particularly at Tinder and some attractive marketing opportunities especially at Match. Operating income was up 13% this quarter. Operating income grew less than EBITDA primarily as a result of increases in continued consideration and SPC [ph]. The $4 million increase in stock-based comp expense is primarily related to new awards granted since the prior year quarter, primarily at Tinder. We reported a net loss of $9 million due to 92 million of charges related to the U.S. tax reform passed in late December. This included re-measurement of our net deferred tax position which was $69 million and the transition tax on previously untaxed foreign earnings of $24 million. Absent these tax law changes, Match Group has reported net income of $83 million or $0.29 per diluted share for the quarter. The next slide lays out our financial outlook for 2018 and for Q1 specifically. On our last call, we gave a high-level outlook of mid-teens revenue growth in 2018. We’re now putting a range on revenue for 2018 at $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion. At the midpoint that would be 16.5% year-over-year revenue growth which is modestly above what we thought at the time of our last earnings call and comes off a slightly higher base given our outperformance in Q4 '17. We expect revenue growth in '18 to be driven primarily by Tinder which we believe will account for the vast majority of our sub growth. We expect our non-Tinder businesses to be fairly stable from a revenue and subscriber perspective. We anticipate relatively stable ARPU across our businesses as the mix shift to Tinder which had historically driven overall ARPU lower is offset by higher ARPU from Tinder due to Gold. We expect indirect revenue growth in the high-single digits for the year primarily driven by Tinder. In 2018, we anticipate our revenue growth to be stronger in the front half of the year as the back half of 2017 reflected the significant impact of Tinder Gold. We expect our growth trajectory in 2018 to depend upon the impact of Tinder’s revenue feature launches in the back half of the year as well as on the Gold renewal and re-subscription rates we see as the year progresses. For Q1, we expect revenue of $380 million to $390 million or 29% year-over-year growth at the midpoint consistent with Q4 '17’s growth rate. For full year 2018, we expect EBITDA of $550 million to $600 million, 23% growth at the midpoint materially better than 2017’s rate of 16%. Margin would be 37% at the midpoint representing an improvement of approximately 2 percentage points from the 2017 as reported figure and approximately 1 percentage point if you ignore the Tinder equity plan settlement cost we incurred in 2017. Tinder is driving the operating leverage as it experiences the benefits of scale around headcount, data center and other operating costs. Our outlook assumes marketing spend at Tinder continued to increase dollar-wise but stays constant as a percent of Tinder revenue as we spend into the product momentum to grow users, drive adoption and extend Tinder’s market leading position. A majority of Tinder’s marketing spend will be internationally to build on viral growth and brand awareness, as Tinder pushes to further expand its lead on competitors in these markets. We’re assuming some increased regulatory compliance across the company in 2018, including those related to GDPR, the new data privacy regulations in Europe, which come into effect in May. Like many tech companies, we’re generally seeing increased scrutiny on our business particularly around consumer protection, privacy and data protection with Europe leading the way. We’re working diligently to ensure full compliance. Our outlook also contemplates continued R&D investment across our businesses and particularly at Tinder. We have also allocated some spend to new product innovation outside our existing brands and products. As is typical in our business, we expect Q1 to be our lowest margin quarter and Q4 to be our best with the middle two quarters somewhere in between. We expect $115 million to $120 million of EBITDA in Q1 or approximately 36% year-over-year growth at the midpoint and margin of about 30%.Normally Q1 is our highest marketing spend quarter and we expect the same trend to hold in 2018. Q1 '18 should be an above average quarter in terms of sequential increase in Tinder’s average subscribers, albeit less than what we’ve seen the last two quarters due to the stock effect continuing to wear off, as Mandy discussed. After that, we expect sequential subscriber increases to return to more typical Tinder levels. Year-over-year, Tinder’s subscriber growth rates though remain very robust. Given the phenomenal second half of 2017 that we had largely due to Tinder Gold and the under the hood work we did in the first half of '17, we’re set up very well for the first half of '18. And new Tinder revenue features in the back half of the year will drive growth rates in the back half of '18 and 2019. While we have some terrific new product ideas in the works, our outlook contemplates new products of much more modest financial impact than the highly successful Tinder Gold. This is due more to forecasting conservatism than anything else. As was the case with Gold, we’ve been cautious about the impact of Tinder’s new revenue features on our financials because the features are still six months out. We’ve also been conservative about the timing of the new feature launches. Although we are pushing for early in the second half, we have assumed a slower pace. Given our track record around monetization, we would be disappointed if we don’t exceed our assumptions around timing and impact. We’ve also been conservative at forecasting the ongoing Tinder Gold’s re-subscription and renewal rates in the back half of the year until we have more data to review, particularly as we’ve not yet reached renewals for 6 and 12-month packages. There would be upside to the extent Gold renewals and re-sub rates continue current trends, particularly in the later quarters of 2018. We’re still assessing our GAAP effective tax rates given the recent reform but are expecting to be in the low 20% range for 2018. 2018’s rate is higher than our expected rates for 2019 and beyond because of higher impact from global intangible low tax income or GILTI, due to our NOL position. Our effective tax rates include the estimated tax benefit of equity award vesting and exercises. Now that we’ve detailed what to expect in 2018, as we enter our third full year as a public company, we thought we should quickly look back at what we’ve delivered to our investors. On Slide 13, you can see that if you take the midpoint of the outlook I just provided for '18, we expect to show 17% revenue growth, 25% operating income growth and 21% EBITDA growth from 2015 to 2018. This is clearly strong and steady growth on both top and bottom line. We think this combination of revenue growth and margin puts us in the top decile of companies listed in the U.S. These numbers are all pro forma for our acquisition of PlentyOfFish. At the time of our IPO, we talked about 10% to 15% top line growth, so we’re clearly exceeding that target. We’ve also said we’ll be able to expand margins over time and we believe we’re poised to do so in 2018. In addition to strong top and bottom line performance, we believe we’ve also done what we said we would do with the balance sheet. As you can see on Slide 14, we’ve delevered from north of 4x at IPO to under 3x gross leverage today even with having accomplished effectively what was a large stock buyback from Tinder employees along the way. You can also see that our business generates significant cash. For 2017, operating cash flow grew 24% year-over-year to $321 million and free cash flow increased 37% to $292 million. Free cash flow conversion from EBITDA in '17 was 62% and we expect to exceed that in 2018, as we don’t expect to be a material U.S. cash tax payer in '18 or '19. Coupled with low CapEx, we believe 2018 EBITDA to free cash flow conversion should be approximately 75%. We’ve replenished our cash balance of $273 million with three quarters of it in the U.S. providing us solid financial flexibility. In December '17, we accessed the debt markets and locked in 10-year unsecured debt at a 5% coupon which we’ll use to pay down much higher coupon debt. We expect that transaction together with other actions we have taken over the past two and a half years to reduce our interest expense to approximately $70 million in 2018. Overall, we feel that Match Group is in a terrific position as we enter 2018. We believe we’re poised to deliver another year of strong financial performance. There is much more opportunity for us to refine our product offerings, increase revenue and improve margins. We look forward to continuing this journey with you. Now, we’ll answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open the line to questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from Chris Merwin of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Christopher Merwin:
Great, thank you and congrats on the quarter. So for Mandy on the Tinder product roadmap in 2018, you talked about focusing more on the female experience. And you have a competitor in Bumble which has tried to differentiate itself in the market by doing the same thing I guess with smaller scale than Tinder. So it seems like this initiative puts you a little bit more in the crosshairs with your competition. I’m just wondering if you see an opportunity to broaden the appeal of Tinder organically or if M&A could be another route worth pursuing to further tap into that opportunity. And just a second quick one for Gary. I was wondering if you could just help us think about the curve of net adds for Tinder in 2018 in the context of your overall guidance? Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. Hi, Chris. So the first thing just addressing the female experience, I’ve been in this industry for over 10 years and if you listened at product meetings across the globe, we’re always talking about the female experience because frankly it’s just core to all of these products. And we’ve done a lot of work under the hood like matching algorithms, for example, but we haven’t marketed a lot of these features but we’re starting to. Gentleman’s Badge in France which I referred to in my remarks is one example of that. And now we’re gearing up – we have a number of product features on Tinder and across other products that we believe are going to appeal to women, which is broadening their appeal. So we’re going to plan to start rolling these out in the coming quarters. And sort of stating the obvious but as a woman CEO running a company that touches millions of women around the world, it’s a big priority for me and it’s an area that I’m particularly passionate about. And then your second question around M&A, we don’t really comment on rumors and speculation about acquisitions. Clearly in the last decade, we’ve been a big acquirer in our history and we’ve got a strong track record for businesses like Pairs, for example, in the last couple of years and PlentyOfFish. That said, we’re very thoughtful and disciplined and that’s going to be the case in the future. And given our growth you see, we don’t really feel the pressure but if something makes strategic and financial sense, we’ll consider it.
Gary Swidler:
I think, Chris, one your question around Tinder net adds, the way I would think about it, as I said in my remarks, I think that the first quarter you’ll see some continued wearing off of the stock effect around Gold. So the net adds are going to come in lower than where they’ve been in the last couple of quarters there’s always been a very elevated level. But if you look at kind of historically we’ve been in kind of the 200, 225 net adds at Tinder, it’s going to be somewhere between I think those two points what we’ve accomplished in the last couple of quarters and what we’ve kind of run at historically. And I think it will gradually trend towards that average over the other three quarters. That’s kind of what we’re expecting as the year goes on. But again, there’s a lot of uncertainty around this. We haven’t decided exactly when we’re going to roll out the new feature. We’re not exactly sure how we’re going to merchandize it. And so there’s still some real questions around it, but right now I think from a guidance standpoint that’s how we’re thinking about the net add trends for '18.
Christopher Merwin:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nathan Helfstein of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Hi. It’s Jason. Thanks. So two questions. One, I think you said international ARPU ex-currency was up 7% mostly driven by Tinder. Is there a way to think about the numbers as far as what’s still dragging the U.S. ARPU and are there things that you’re doing internationally that haven’t yet benefitted the U.S.? I guess what I’m asking is, is there an opportunity to accelerate U.S. ARPU ex-Tinder? And then just second, Gary, as far as the deleverage, while it’s impressive, at some point you get to a point of having the capital structure become less efficient and cut into returns. Given the limited flow, it is pretty hard for you to buy back stock. So I guess outside of acquisitions, what can you do to maintain leverage to keep up returns? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Okay. So on the ARPU question, I think that you have to recognize that Tinder is a bigger piece of the international business. You got a lot bigger business domestically. And so as Tinder’s ARPU is increasing, you’re seeing real impact from the Tinder ARPU increases on the international business. It’s visible as well domestically but it’s just not to the same extent. Plus you got the FX that you mentioned. So I think those are largely the trends. Our international business also benefits from Pairs in Japan which has strong ARPU and that business is growing nicely as you’re seeing some lift from that. So there’s a few different things going on. But I don’t think – I think you should look at our overall businesses stable from an ARPU perspective, ex-Tinder. That’s kind of how we’re thinking about it and Tinder will continue to see strong ARPU particularly in the front half of 2018 before you see the Gold effect in the back half of '18 versus the comps in '17. In terms of capital structure, your point is well taken. We don’t have a lot of options. When we look at it, we don’t think for us right now dividends and buybacks make sense, certainly buybacks with the low float we think don’t make sense. So the playbook that we’re running will be the playbook that we continue to run which is we don’t think it makes sense to carry lots of cash and have a big debt balance. So we built back up some cash to the extent that we don’t have other things to do with cash, we’ll continue to chip away at debt. But obviously there are M&A opportunities that make sense. We’re thinking about geographic expansion. We’re thinking about other things in M&A. And to the extent we find a compelling strategic opportunity, as Mandy said, we think we have the financial flexibility to do that and we’re going to carefully consider the options. And if we find something that makes financial and strategic sense, we would pursue it. So that’s how we’re thinking about the balance sheet.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Next question, please.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ross Sandler of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Great. Guys, thanks for allowing me to ask a question. Two questions. So last quarter you talked about the Tinder sub adds being driven partially from Gold but also from other initiatives that you had put in place in middle of 2017. So can you just talk about that in the context of the fourth quarter how much of the 544 was from Gold versus other stuff? And then can you talk about the duration of the Tinder subs? Is that changing with Gold between the shorter term versus the longer term packages? Any color on duration change would be helpful? Thank you.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. Hi, Ross. So let me talk about the Tinder subscription strength. Hard to break out between all the activities, but last year we did a number of things to really impact the growth. The first was re-launching the Android app and we also did a lot to expand access to users across the globe, including SMS and Tinder online. And then of course we started up marketing efforts. And so we had all of these things and then of course in Q3 introduced the Likes You feature which we merchandize as Tinder Gold. And so that created obviously more momentum but hard to break out too because there were forces that were happening all at the same time. But we are definitely seeing Tinder Gold contribute to the strength in the back half of the year for sure.
Gary Swidler:
And I would say on duration, Ross, we’re not seeing real impact on duration. What I can tell you is that when we look at Gold retention rates, they are lower than T Plus which you would expect because it’s a higher price product. But those rates continue to run ahead of our expectation. And so we’re watching that closely. It’s going to have effect as the year goes on. But right now it continues to be ahead of our expectations. I’d also tell you that from a repeat purchase perspective, the take rate on Gold continues to be very strong which is really an indicator that people are seeing value in the product and keep coming back to it. And so we feel overall very good about the trends we’re seeing around duration on Tinder Gold. Next question, please.
Operator:
The next question comes from Douglas Anmuth of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thanks for taking the question. Just as we think about the 2018 guide in the 13% to 20% range on the top line and then the $50 million EBITDA range, can you just help us understand the biggest swing factors there in terms of revenue and margins and how you could potentially end up on the extremes of those? And then also I just wanted to clarify. I think you said that non-Tinder brands returned to growth ex-Affinity in 4Q. I just wanted to confirm that that was the case. Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Yes, what I said specifically was ex-Tinder, we saw sequential improvement in the year-over-year growth rates and we’re expecting to continue to see that. So if you think about it, Affinity is going to continue to be a drag. It’s less and less of a drag as every quarter goes on. The other businesses are stable. And so as that drag moderates, we’ll start to see the ex-Tinder improvement that we’ve been talking about. But the trends that we’ve been talking about for a number of quarters now continue to hold, which is Match and OkCupid have returned to growth and Affinity is one business that continues to cause us significant drag but it is lessening. So that’s kind of how we look at the non-Tinder sub trends. In terms of the guide, I think that the year is going to be – the swing factors are really top line driven. And I think when you look at it, there probably are two or three areas of conservatism that we focused on in the back half of the year which are affecting the trend. As we’ve talked about, the re-sub and renewal rates on Gold are something that we had one month of data to forecast it last quarter. Now we’ve got four months of data, so it’s more but it’s still not a lot. And so predicting the full 12 months of '18 based on four months of data we’ve tried to err [ph] on the conservative side. Right now the trends continue to look good and we think there’s upside to the extent that we do better than we’re expecting from a re-sub and renewal rate as the year progresses. But we’ve only seen the one month packages at Tinder Gold renew. We haven’t yet gone to the renewal point for 6 and 12-month packages. So we’ll have to see how that all plays out. But that whole set of metrics around Gold, renewal and re-sub rates in particular, is going to have real impact on '18 and on the back half of the year. So that’s kind of one aspect of it. And then the second aspect of it is what exactly we do roll out, how many products, what do they look like, à la carte or subscription at Tinder as the year progresses and what specifically the timing is. We’re pushing for early in the second half of the year to the extent that we end up with something a little bit later because we refine it. That will affect kind of what the back half of the year looks like. So that’s why sitting here in early February we provide this broad and kind of round range of 1.5 billion to 1.6 billion. Right now that’s kind of our best guess and if it slows down to EBITDA, we have confidence we’re going to see margin expansion. Tinder’s margins are expanding. So we think that trend will clearly hold. But the top line is what is a little bit less sure and that will depend on the Gold metrics and the exact timing and impact of the new Tinder feature or features.
Douglas Anmuth:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brent Thill of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brent Thill:
Good morning. The international business was up 51%, North America was strong but at 16%. If you could just maybe talk a little bit about some of the initiatives in the North American business and how you think about potential of reacceleration of growth there that would be helpful? Thank you.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Thanks, Brent. So Tinder makes up a big piece of that international business which is driving a lot of that growth. And just to keep in mind before I talk about the non-Tinder businesses, Tinder has a large number of users in North America. And so on that side it’s really around driving growth through product investment and marketing as I talked about before. For the businesses outside of Tinder, the focus has been – we’ve had a portfolio strategy really focused on addressing the needs of these individual segments and we’re going to continue to push product differentiation across those brands. The other piece we are focused on is really the top of the funnel. And I alluded to the fact that we have definitely seen challenges as media consumption behavior is changing, people are moving away from television to digital, television marketing has been really productive for us in the past and a highly efficient channel. And so the amount of – we look forward these non – the North America businesses outside of Tinder, the amount we can grow and to the extent we can grow is really going to be our ability to crack the top of the funnel. So short term we see revenue growth as modest and we sort of mentioned the fact it’s been kind of flattish.
Brent Thill:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Sam Kemp of Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.
Samuel Kemp:
Great. Congrats on the quarter and thanks for taking the questions. So one quick on product. I think we’ve heard about non-core R&D brand investments for a couple of quarters now. Are these efforts prevailing in the dating space or are you continuing to look at options outside of the dating area? And then quickly on the marketing investments. When we think about the footprint that you’re marketing against, is this more about footprint expansion in geographies where you might have low brand awareness or is this just putting more resources behind some of the already existing larger geographies? Thanks.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. The first one is around how we’re thinking about growth. We are definitely looking at sort of areas within the dating category including investment in our current product and across the globe. And we also are looking at adjacencies really trying to understand what drives single lifestyle and what are different products over time that we can serve that single audience. And so I think as over time, as I’m in sort of the driver seat over the next couple of quarters, we’ll have a better view of how we’re thinking about the business not just sort of within dating but it can category expansive. And then the question around --
Gary Swidler:
Where we’re putting our product --
Mandy Ginsberg:
Yes, where we’re putting our product resources. So the product resources, there is a couple of things. I think that I mentioned before that a third of relationships in the U.S. start on a dating app which is pretty profound. That number is meaningfully less across the globe. And so we are definitely looking at expanding footprint and looking at – you can see what we’ve done with M&A on Pairs in the Japan side. It’s been a really interesting acquisition for us as well as investing in internationally and other opportunities. OurTime in Europe is another example of 50 plus. It’s been underserved. So a combination of both looking at M&A and also investing in products going after new demos and new geographies is really the focus.
Gary Swidler:
And I would just add, Sam, that we’ve been talking about some of this stuff and some of it worth considering seriously in terms of acquisitions, investments, broadening things out a little bit. But the discipline remains and the terrific performance remains in our core businesses that we don’t need to buy things but we are analyzing it. And to the extent we find something, like I said before that either fits strategically and feels financially logical to do, we’ll do it. And if we don’t, we’ll continue to perform in our existing businesses. And obviously as you can see from the results this quarter that certainly puts up a very strong financial performance. So that’s kind of how we’re thinking about it and we’re being patient around those opportunities.
Samuel Kemp:
Sounds good. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Lloyd Walmsley of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Kunal Thakkar:
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. This is Kunal for Lloyd. Mandy, one of the things you mentioned was that online dating is no longer a stigma. Given that it’s much more socially acceptable now and Tinder provides so much utility, is there a potential to actually raise prices for the subscription products? And as an aside, as we are talking about pricing, can you give us an update about the price discrimination issue with regard to Tinder?
Mandy Ginsberg:
Sure. So the first one, I think what Likes You feature merchandizing goal that really showed that people are willing to pay more. There’s no price elasticity especially when they’re getting real value. And so we think we’ve got a number of features that we’re going to introduce in the back half of the year to drive revenue. And we don’t necessarily think about sort of price. That’s one lever. We really focus on revenue optimization and we are constantly evaluating price and that’s not a continuum of – increasing price reduces subscribers – reducing price increases subscribers, so we’re constantly optimizing and making those decisions. In terms of the lawsuit that you mentioned which I think you’re referring to the California lawsuit, we found out last week that California Court of Appeals reversed a lower court’s decision dismissal of a 2015 class action lawsuit challenging Tinder’s tiered pricing. It’s limited to California and we’re certainly going to appeal that.
Kunal Thakkar:
Thanks. And if I could, second question on advertising and how – given the growth in Tinder subs, how much bigger are you think you could make it in 2019?
Gary Swidler:
I think from an advertising perspective, we’ve been talking about this for a little while now. We’re making kind of slow and steady progress. It continues to be kind of second priority for us just given the strength around the direct revenue at Tinder. You can see in this quarter we actually saw some growth overall in our advertising business which was the first time in a little while, because we finally got the program that we have with Facebook up and running well on Tinder and that’s really contributing nicely and offsetting some of the declines we’re seeing from some of the non-Tinder brands. I think the declines in non-Tinder brands will start to moderate and as Facebook program continues to ramp up and continues to ramp up revenue generally at Tinder, we’re going to see some growth. But we talk about kind of high-single digit growth for '18 and I think that’s kind of how you should think about the potential for advertising growth improvement at least for the foreseeable future kind of where we are currently strategically on that topic.
Kunal Thakkar:
Thank you so much.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mark Kelley of Citigroup. Please go ahead. Excuse me, just one moment please. Please go ahead with your question.
Mark Kelley:
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Three quick ones. First one, you talked a lot about international growth. Can you just remind us what the geographic priorities are? And then also just on the Affinity side, the addition of Chispa and Univision partnership. I think it suggest that there’s still some importance to the Affinity portfolio. How do we think about Affinity from here now that the runoff is pretty much behind us and that you’re adding some newer brands? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
You cut out on your first part of the question. Mandy will answer the Chispa and the Affinity question. Then we’ll have to kind of go back.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Yes, I heard the question on Affinity. As Gary alluded to and we’ve been pulling back marketing on Affinity, so there’s been a pullback in subscribers and those declines are moderate in which it’s great. Chispa is an example of our ability to launch a new brand and we really have deep product and technology – and Univision knows more about this audience than anyone else. And so we think they are a great distribution partner. It’s early – we’re actually not monetizing the product yet. It’s really all about building user growth at this point. And we are excited about this. It’s a pretty underserved audience and the ability for us to serve this audience with this partnership we think is going to intriguing. So more to come.
Gary Swidler:
Sorry, Mark, what was your first question because the line cut out for a second? We couldn’t hear it.
Mark Kelley:
Sorry about that. Can you hear me a little bit better now? And just curious about – you talked a lot about international growth. Can you just remind us what the priorities are in terms of a geographic standpoint?
Gary Swidler:
I would say that we feel we have Western Europe very well covered with a broad variety of products. Japan we’ve talked about as having been a strong market for us with our acquisition. Tinder has made some very good headway in India which is obviously a very large market and we think there’s real opportunity there. But Tinder plays at the more casual end of the spectrum, so there’s probably opportunity there with some more serious products in India. That’s something that we are thinking about. And then I would just say, more broadly in Asia, probably ex-China which has not been a focus for us but something to think about for another day. But there are other opportunities in Asia and we’re attacking that in a variety of ways. Our Pairs business in Japan we’re pushing into some other Asian countries and we’re thinking about some other ways to further penetrate Asia. So that will continue to be a big focus for us whether it’s M&A or pushing some of our existing brands into those countries.
Mark Kelley:
That’s helpful. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Dan Salmon of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Daniel Salmon:
Good morning, everyone. Mandy covered a little bit of this in some of the questions already but just from a high level I’d love to hear your thoughts on the competitive environment and if it helps maybe segmenting it down into some of the more mobile-first upstart competitors like Bumble, maybe some of the more established, more desktop-oriented or at least desktop originated players like eHarmony? And then although they’re not in the business of dating specifically, how do you look at big platform players like Facebook which is obviously a big partner but also where obviously a lot of relationship connections happen as well? Thanks very much.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Okay. So given my tenure, I’ve definitely seen a lot in this space. The dating landscape has always been really competitive. The way we see competition today was truly different than what we’ve seen in the past, because it’s in some ways it’s like Tinder and there’s everything else. The reason we talked about Tinder being in the league of its own is because it’s really been the only product that we’ve ever seen that kind of caught fire and been able to grown organically across the globe. And you asked me about Bumble, I think Bumble has done a great job building a brand. We’ve also seen in our portfolio other founder-led brands like OkCupid is a good example that grew through PR domestically. But other than Tinder we really haven’t seen a business grow like this outside of their kind of home market without spending real dollars. And talk about sort of competition and how we compete, if you think about products that are more local in nature and you’ve mentioned eHarmony as one, we think that the way that we have to compete is by constantly creating better product experience to appeal to those particular segments while at the same time we got to accelerate Tinder’s growth globally. So it’s a pretty exciting time now but it’s definitely the landscape have changed with Tinder’s global expansion.
Gary Swidler:
I think we have time for one more.
Operator:
Okay. And the last question will come from Victor Anthony of Aegis Capital. Please go ahead.
Victor Anthony:
Thanks, guys, for squeezing me in. Just two quick questions. So Gary, you talked a lot about Tinder driving operating leverage and margins will continue to expand. So maybe you could just dive into a discussion of overall company operating leverage and your expectations for Tinder within your EBITDA guidance for 2018? And the second, earlier in the year you talked about SMS and Web Launch for Tinder outside of the U.S. So maybe you could just give us an update on those products? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Sure. So on the margins I would say we have a lot of confidence that Tinder is going to expand its margins short and longer term. And we think there is real opportunity there. We’re finally going to start to see the operating leverage around headcount and web operations and some other operating costs. So at Tinder I think we have clear visibility. I think the rest of the business is we largely look at them as relatively stable from a margin perspective, but there are a couple of potential exceptions. One of them is around compliance costs to the extent that we continue to have to comply with additional mandates, especially in Europe, which is what we’re seeing and we expect it to come ultimately in the U.S. as well. I think that is a place where we have no choice, we will spend what is necessary to make sure we’re in full compliance. So that’s a place of potential margin impact from those compliance costs. The other thing is short term we may spend a little bit more on innovation, on new products, on expanding a little bit. I think those are some things that to the extent we flow those to the income statement that could also be a margin impacter. We view it as a short-term negative potentially for much longer term benefit. So those are probably the two things to think about on the non-Tinder side that could move the needle a little bit. I think both would be relatively small, but that’s kind of how we’re thinking about margins. And then on SMS, I would just say that we’ve talked about this a lot. I think Ross asked a question about it earlier. When we look back on 2017, a lot of things that we did kind of fed into the tremendous success of Gold and the massive increase in PMC that we saw in the back half of '17. So we expanded top of the funnel, we drove marketing which expanded user base, SMS was a piece of it that worked nicely. There was a lot of momentum that built from all of that work, the improved product at Tinder; all that led to terrific momentum. We started to see PMC really increase Tinder before Gold was introduced. And then when Gold was introduced, that just fanned the flames, spread the fire, everyone want to think about it because Gold was a product that people saw real value in and we saw a huge jump in PMC from that. So that’s kind of how we look back on '17 and kind of think about the components of what we did. And I guess at this point now we’re onto '18. So with that, I think we’ll leave it there for the moment. We appreciate very much everyone joining us again today and we look forward to talking to you all next quarter. Thanks so much.
Mandy Ginsberg:
Thanks.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Lance Barton - SVP, IR & Corporate Development Grégory Blatt - Chairman & CEO Amanda Ginsberg - CEO, Match Group North America Gary Swidler - CFO
Analysts:
Cory Carpenter - JPMorgan Chase & Co. Jason Helfstein - Oppenheimer & Co. Lloyd Walmsley - Deutsche Bank AG Daniel Salmon - BMO Capital Markets John Blackledge - Cowen and Company Ross Sandler - Barclays PLC Brent Thill - Jefferies Peter Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities Samuel Kemp - Piper Jaffray Companies Mark Kelley - Citigroup Christopher Merwin - Goldman Sachs Group
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today, we have Grég Blatt, Chairman and CEO; Mandy Ginsberg, CEO of North America; and Gary Swidler, our CFO. They will review the investor presentation that's available on our website and then open it up for questions. I'd also like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and in our periodic filings with SEC. Over to you, Grég.
Grégory Blatt:
Thanks, Lance. Good morning, everybody. Glad you could join us for the call this morning. We had a great quarter, and we're excited to talk to you about it. As you know, this will be my last earnings call at Match Group, as Mandy will be taking over for me as CEO. Accordingly, we thought it made sense for her to join the call now so you could hear directly from her on the North American businesses she's been running. She started getting up to speed on everything else. But obviously, that's an ongoing process. Frankly, I'm still trying to get up to speed on everything, and I've had the job for a long time. As I've said multiple times before, working with Mandy over the last 10 or so years has been one with professional pleasures. I have the utmost confidence she'll continue the good work we'd been doing without missing a beat, and I'm sure you all come to appreciate her as I have. Frankly, from a shareholder perspective, you're all getting a hell of a trade. It's now 2 years since we took Match Group public, almost, I guess, a week to the day. Looking back, I think we've delivered on most of the things we said we'd deliver on. The company's stock performed pretty well. And as I hand off the baton, I think the company overall is in great shape. It's a great feeling, and I'm really proud of what collectively we've all accomplished. Now to the slides. Let's start with Slide 4. Last call, I highlighted strong end of Q2 and early Q3 trends, and that continued throughout the quarter. PMC growth accelerated to 18%, driven by a great quarter for Tinder and also increased stability at Match and OkCupid. Mandy will talk about this more, but ending PMC was actually up at OkCupid in Q3, and we saw it up in October at Match. Mandy and her team did great work at Match and Elie Seidman, Ok's CEO, really came through, delivering this turnaround ahead of schedule. Affinity declined about the same amount as last quarter, as we expected. And we think the decline should moderate from here. Again, Mandy will give you some more color on that as well. As you've seen throughout the last 3 years, international PMC growth continues to outpace domestic due primarily to the greater mix of Tinder and the absence of Affinity. Turning to Slide 5. Obviously, Tinder has record PMC growth in Q3, really driven by number of factors. The easy answer is Likes You goals, but it really was much more of a combination. First, we increased new users from our growth product work and marketing, both of which paid real dividends. We increased conversion, both through the introduction of the Likes You feature, but also through a bunch of optimizations we did earlier in the year, and the tech work we spent so much time on during the first part of this year has really started to pay off as well, making all this growth possible. Hitting #1 in the App Store, I think, in August, was a big watershed for us. But the reality is, Likes You and Gold haven't really even hit yet. So there were a lot of drivers to this quarter's PMC success even those before were launched. Obviously, it's a tremendous quarter, really hitting on all cylinders at the same time. Let's turn to Slide 6 so we can explore those revenue dynamics a little bit more. We currently have 3 ways that we monetize our users at Tinder, subscriptions, à la carte purchases and advertising. I think the right way to think about our growth modernization efforts is that we develop features for our consumers that we think will add value, but by their nature can't really be offered to all our users. Once we've got the feature, we merchandise it in whatever way we think will maximize revenue. In other words, whether a feature is an à la carte feature or we put in Plus or we create a new SKU we call Gold; or whether we put a feature in all categories, it's really a tactical decision. Boost and Super Like, for instance, are available à la carte, as part of Plus and as part of Gold. Take Likes You. We started with a feature. We knew that it be valuable, and then we had to decide how we wanted to merchandise it. We thought it could deliver enough value that we could charge more for it. And so we created this new Gold package, but we seriously contemplated introducing it as part of Plus. If we had, presumably we'd have more PMC than we do now because the price would be lower, but we have a lower overall ARPPU. We made the decision that trade-off was right, and we introduced Gold. Now we start testing and optimizing it over time. The takeaway here is that we focus really on the direct revenue growth. PMC numbers, ARPPU, à la carte versus subscription pricing, particular subscription SKUs are all means to an end. And the mix of these components can and will shift over time, sometimes rapidly. We're focused on revenue, and these components are moving around all the time. A comment on Likes You. Over the years, I think we've been pretty good at judging what features will drive monetization, but it's always hard to predict the degree of impact a given feature will have. Likes You was something we're very bullish on, and we thought we'd deliver enough value to sustain a rate increase, which is why we launched Gold. But they're just no question it meaningfully exceeded our expectations, both in its ability to drive the subscribers and to drive higher ARPPU. Really, one of the great wins we've had here. And coming on top of the increased top of the pile dynamics that we're seeing at Tinder from the work I mentioned earlier, it's really just a great driver of financial trajectory of this business for a while to come. Just stepping back for a second. The net effect of what we did by introducing Likes You as part of this Gold package is that we drove up conversion overall for Tinder, which means bringing in more subs. We drove up ARPPU, which obviously increases rates. But then we have a lower duration, just driven by higher pricing, which is, again, far more offset by the first two positive trends, but those are basically the directional things. Also, just a reminder of what we call the stock and flow effect, which we've talked about before. Initially, when a new feature is exposed to the entire existing user base, you get a big surge in new subscribers. Once everyone has seen it, the surge returns back down to more normal levels, as a bigger percentage of new subscribers comes strictly from new users coming to the platform. This phenomenon has replicated itself since the beginning of time across every one of our products. Obviously, even after that initial surge ends, PMC is at a much higher level than it was before the surge, but sequential growth, as opposed to year-over-year growth, moderates a lot. We expect this Q4 increase in sequential PMC that we will see to be similar to Q3. But then we saw expect in '18 for it to decline substantially, at least until the next major monetization push for Tinder, which we expect to come in the back half of '18. As you know, we also drive advertising revenues through a combination of direct sales efforts in the Facebook ad network. We'll see growth this year, and even more so next year as we get the full year effect of the Facebook ads. Nonetheless, it continues to be a much smaller impact and much lower priority than our direct revenue business. Turning to Slide 7. Despite the understandable focus on features that directly drive revenue, I know that's we talk a lot about, the biggest driver of revenue are actually the features that we don't charge for, the ones that make Tinder a desirable product to begin with, that bring our audience here and that creates a vibrant ecosystem. The bulk of our efforts for the next few quarters will be devoted to these types of features, as the current PMC and rate surge will continue to drive significant revenue growth for at least the near term. In particular, you're going to see a start to make changes to product that leverage what I think are a true competitive advantage in the space. These advantages really fall into three buckets, first, our users are all here to meet someone new. And this clear intent differentiates us from traditional social media products. Second, our large scale differentiates us from other dating products. We believe there are certain product experiences that fall into something of an overlap between dating and social media, where our clear intent allows us to create an experience different from social media and our scale allows us to do it effectively where the smaller dating players could not. Playing in this area is going to be a focus of ours. And then our third differentiator is that we just have a larger tech and product resource base than our competitors, which is necessary to hit the ambitious road map we have in front of us. Here are just a few examples of the things we're doing, and they're by no means exhaustive. First thing we're tackling is the post-match experience. Until now, Tinder is basically a swiping machine. Once you've matched with someone, they appear on a list, and you can message with them. It's effective and simple, but ultimately limited. In a couple of weeks, we're going to begin testing a whole new post-match experience. Effectively, it will be a rich, dynamic content experience, bringing you deep into activities of the people you've already matched with. We think it will create rich context in which to get to know your matches better, spark new and better communications, and in general, bring real texture to the product experience. The identical experience on a social network would take on a completely different implication because of the lack of common intent, while the same experience on another dating product would be far less effective because of our higher number of matches. We're excited about this one. Of course, like all new features that might not take off, but unlike all new features, if it does, it has the potential to be transformative. And again, we'll begin testing that in a few weeks. Similarly, in the first part of '18, we plan to begin to launch a series of location-based features, each of which builds on the prior one, over time blurring the distinction between digital and real-life dating, and dating and simply engaging in your social life. Another context, these same features could have different implications and uses, but the dating context creates a unique experience, and our scale is necessary to provide the density and depth of signal to make it effective. Again, these may or may not take off, but this vector has the potential to be defining for us. We've talked a lot about AI before, so I won't say much. But I do want to remind that we're building a real team here, applying it to a number of areas, including in consumer-facing features that we'll be launching soon. It's going to be a meaningful part of Tinder. Honestly, if I had to choose, the product road map at Tinder is the thing I'm most excited about at this company. The magnitude of consumer product work we're poised to engage in [indiscernible] was mostly a year of rebuilding our tech foundation to set us up to be able to launch these products which we think create a real moat between Tinder and the rest of the category. Now I'll turn it over to Mandy to discuss North America and to Gary for financials, then open it up to Q&A.
Amanda Ginsberg:
Thanks, Grég. It's great to be on the call today and to see the terrific results across the board. Our business momentum is strong and I'm excited about taking on the reins soon. It's hard to believe that it's been 11 years since I've started at Match operating 2 brands in U.S. In fact, I joined just a few years before Grég joined in 2009. We've been in the trenches a long time together, and it's amazing at this point to step back and see the financial value we've created over the last decade as well as the impact it's had on millions of lives around the world. Over the last few months, in addition to running the North America businesses, I've started to get up to speed on parts of the businesses that I haven't been directly involved in. My thoughts on these businesses and the portfolio overall will continue to develop, and I'm sure I'll talk about that on the next call. Suffice it to say that I'm currently excited about the opportunity in front of us. The trend in the North America businesses have been a big focus since our IPO, and I'd like to provide my perspective. I'll talk about financials first because it's a business that has continued to see growth over this period, and I'll turn to the others reflected on Slide 8. PlentyOfFish is led by Hesam Hosseini, a Match veteran, who took over the role about 2 years ago. It's clear that PlentyOfFish has carved out a unique space in the market and is able to generate more conversations than any other dating app. Their user base is geographically dispersed throughout the U.S., which is complementary to our other products, for example, Tinder and OkCupid tend to be more concentrated in bigger cities. PlentyOfFish has made real progress in modernizing the mobile experience this year, recently relaunching our app and adding features like Spark, which allows users to strike up a conversation straight from a profile. These efforts around product improvement and differentiation are focused on getting people into more and better-quality conversations. This initiative will continue in 2018. This has been a great acquisition for us, and Hesam has done a fantastic job. Turning to Slide 8. I want to start with Match and OkCupid. They have been on a multiyear journey to remake themselves into mobile-centric businesses in order to reverse PMC declines. Our first step in this journey was to fix conversions by making sure that these products worked on mobile as well as they did on desktop. Part of that mission and our primary focus for this year was to align the user experience for each of these products with their core brand proposition. We've set out to create differentiated product experience for each brand as a way to drive higher engagement that will ultimately translate into increased top-of-the-funnel activity. I'm pleased to say that we have now stabilized PMC at these 2 businesses. Start with Match. The Match PMC momentum we saw in June and July continued throughout Q3, and we're able to grow ending PMC on a year-over-year basis in October for the first time since August 2014. I just want to stop and pause on that for a second. That's obviously something we feel great about. I expect average PMC in Q4 to be up slightly year-over-year as we've previously anticipated. Our continued focus on products paid off, and we're still driving conversions higher, and we remain focused on rolling out features that provide our users with better ways to make real connections. In August, we launched Match Stories, where users can create video profiles, more than 50% of our active users on apps have these profiles. We continue to develop these features with a focus on giving singles new and more reasons to try Match. I'm proud of the work the team has done to stabilize the business with these product changes. Our next step for Match is to translate products, performance improvements into growing the top of the funnel. TV advertising has traditionally been a great way for us to reach our core audience with our message, but the media landscape is shifting quickly and TV viewership is down, making TV a less efficient channel for us. That said, we are making progress shifting our customer acquisition efforts to where users are spending their time and reaching them through online videos through deeper storytelling. The ability for us to drive growth at Match and to what extent really depends our ability to effectively craft this practice marketing transition. Let's turn to OkCupid. Their product work is similarly led big improvements in conversion and retention, especially with females, where retention after the first week is up 25%. This year, OkCupid redesigned their mobile experience, revamped the profile, adding back the iconic questions that had previously been buried in the mobile experience. As a result of these improvements, OkCupid achieved year-over-year growth and ending PMC in Q3, which was ahead of our schedule. This will lead to average PMC up slightly in Q4. Again, this is worth a pause. On the last earnings call, Grég mentioned that OkCupid was a bit behind the other brands, but they caught up this quarter. Elie Seidman and the team at OkCupid deserve huge kudos for the excellent progress they have in this business, which still resonates well with its core demographic and now has a much better product to serve them. With significant improvements at OkCupid, the attention really continues to shift to growing the top of the funnel. In its early days, OkCupid was [indiscernible] to the PR buzz from telling compelling data stories as well as taking a stand on issues. The OkCupid team is putting the brand back in that spotlight up after a few years of being quite by upping the PR game. And you can see in the slide, we are getting significant media pickup across a number of TV and online media outlets from Vice to The Tonight Show. Because OkCupid isn't backed my meaningful marketing spend, strong product experiences and positive press mentions are critical to grow the top of the funnel, and we made great strides in this business. Lastly, I wanted to touch a little bit on the Affinity brands. As background, Affinity consists of 29 demographically focused brands operated on a common platform. The vast majority of revenue PMC comes from two of those brands, OurTime, which targets users over the age of 50, and BlackPeopleMeet. 21 of the brands focused on these demos and have very small number of PMC. Previously, we've explained that we reduced marketing spend at Affinity because we discovered we had overstated LTV, and as a result, overspent in prior periods. The LTV declines were driven primarily by mobile shift, which hurt advertising revenue per subscriber, which was an especially big driver in this business. Lower marketing spend in turn drive lower PMC, which is what you're seeing now. We believe we have stabilized our marketing spend to the appropriate levels to where this business is today, but we expect to spend cuts we made this year to continue to be a drag on PMC going forward, although the pace has started to moderate and should continue to do so over the next quarters. And just to take a step back. This is a small contributor to the North America businesses, and obviously, a very small part of the company overall. I'm glad to be on the call to talk about the businesses that I'm so proud of and soon to be taking on the helm of this incredible company. We got a lot of momentum, and I'm confident that we're going to hit the ground running in 2018. And with that, I will turn the call over to Gary to take you through financial performance.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Mandy. Slide 10 has our key financial results for the quarter. Total year-over-year revenue growth was 19%. We were expecting revenue growth to accelerate as the year progressed following a major product push at Tinder, and that is coming to fruition. Direct revenue grew 21%, driven by 18% PMC growth and ARPPU that was up 1%. Our international business grew direct revenue 40%, driven by 33% PMC growth; while our domestic business grew 10% in direct revenue and 9% in PMC. International now accounts for 43% of total direct revenue. We had $0.5 million decline year-over-year in indirect revenue as we continue to experience lower ad revenue at our non-Tinder brands. This was largely offset by the continued ramp of the Facebook ad program at Tinder, which delivered as we expected. As Grég discussed, Tinder contributed very strongly to our results for the quarter as PMC growth was exceptional, à la carte continued to be very strong and the introduction of Gold led to higher ARPPU at Tinder. EBITDA grew 12% in the quarter due to the revenue growth and lower sales and marketing expenses as a percent of revenue as the mix of our businesses continue to shift to lower marketing spend brands, offset by higher Tinder operating costs and higher IAP fees. We also incurred $11 million of payroll taxes related to the former Tinder option exercises and some associate professional fees. Excluding this $11 million of cost, EBITDA growth would've been 22%, 3 points better than our 19% reported total revenue growth. Operating income was flat this quarter primarily for two reasons, we had an increase of $9 million in noncash comp, which is primarily related to Tinder and roughly half of which will not recur; and we had a $5 million reduction in continued consideration income. These were partially offset by the lower amortization of intangibles from our PlentyOfFish acquisition as a scheduled amortization from that acquisition concluded at the end of 2016. Operating costs and expenses were 73% of revenue compared to 68% in Q3 '16. This increase was driven by the payroll taxes, professional fees and the increase in noncash comp that I mentioned previously. Sales and marketing expense was 28% of revenue versus 31% in Q3 '16, despite increases in marketing spend at Tinder, as the mix of our businesses continue to shift the lower marketing spend brands and we reduced marketing spend at our Affinity business. Slide 11 shows our ARPPU, which overall trended up in the quarter. Total ARPPU was $0.54, up from $0.53 in Q3 2016. North American ARPPU was down only about $0.2 for the quarter as Tinder PMC comprised a large of our normal American business and we saw a shift to longer-term packages in some of our non-Tinder businesses in North America, which did impact rate slightly. This was all more than offset by a meaningful rate increase at Tinder North America, which was driven by continued strong à la carte and the initial impact of Tinder Gold. International ARPPU is up $0.02 overall and $0.01 on a constant-currency basis, driven by the same Tinder dynamics as in North America and strength in our Japanese and European businesses. Overall Tinder ARPPU increased by approximately 25% year-over-year, driven by increased à la carte and the initial effect of Gold. Turning to the next slide. As we've discussed, we converted Tinder options to Match Group options in July. Following the conversion, a larger number of these option holders sought liquidity, which wasn't surprising since they've held illiquid Tinder options for a while. When the exercised, we withheld shares to cover the exercise price of the options and employee withholding taxes, which we paid from cash on hand. We also had the opportunity to purchase a portion of this vested stock awards for cash. In aggregate, we spent $500 million to buy back the vested awards and a portion of the vested awards and pay all employee taxes on the exercises, which avoided issuing a total of 26.7 million Match Group shares. The effective buyback price averaged $18.86 per Match share, which compares very favorably to last night's close of just under $27 a share. The cash mostly came from cash we had on hand, but we also increased the borrowings under our term loan by $75 million. We issued 10.6 million shares to settle options that were exercised by employees that we did not purchase for cash. After all of this, we had $158 million of cash on hand at September 30. Our gross leverage ticked up slightly to 2.9x, and our net leverage went from 1.6 to 2.5, all still very manageable. We expect to be able to delever from these levels once again, given that our business generates strong cash flow. In fact, for the 9 months ended September 30, net cash flow from operations increased 17% to $230 million, and free cash flow increased 31% to $208 million. Free cash flow conversion from EBITDA through Q3 was 66%. After the quarter ended, we sold our minority stake in Zhenai, a Chinese dating company. That yielded us about $60 million of cash and a $9 million gain. Overall, our financial flexibility is very strong. Given the strong debt markets, we've been able to take actions over the past 12 months that have driven down our interest cost by approximately $7 million annually. Most recently, we lowered the rate on our term loan by 75 basis points, which yield $3 million of annual savings. We believe there may be additional actions we can take to continue to further reduce our debt costs. Turning to Slide 13. We had a $260 million corporate income tax deduction in the quarter related to option exercises, most stemming from exercises following the conversion of Tinder options to Match options. This led to a $226 million income tax benefit in the quarter. As a result, our net income attributable to shareholders rose 410% to $288 million, and our diluted EPS jumped 367% to $0.98. Much of this relates to how employee-exercised stock-based awards are treated under the new accounting pronouncement. In prior quarters this year, we've seen increases in diluted share count, which had driven down our diluted EPS. This quarter, we saw the tax benefit flow through net income as required under ASU 2016-'09, which in turn drove up our net income. We now have a $246 million deferred tax asset on the balance sheet. We don't expect to be a significant U.S. cash taxpayer until 2020. Slide 14 lays out our financial outlook. Overall, we had strong momentum from Tinder and our other businesses are contributing as expected. We expect Q4 revenue of $355 million to $365 million or 22% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, a further acceleration from the 19% Q3 2017 growth rate. We also expect Q4 revenue to be positively impacted by the full quarter impact of the higher Tinder Gold rate, growth in Tinder average PMC and continued growth in our ala carte. We expect $147 million to $152 million of EBITDA in Q4 or approximately 17% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. We are experiencing strong price momentum at Tinder and our other businesses, and we expect to spend up on marketing if we can find the opportunities. We are currently projecting a 20-plus percent increase in marketing spend year-over-year in Q4, much of it at Tinder, but also at many of our other brands. It tends to be a little tougher to spend marketing dollars in Q4. If we find opportunities to spend, we'll do so, and that will drive EBITDA to the lower end of the range. If we find fewer spend opportunities that made sense, EBITDA will come in toward the higher end of the range. Q4 EBITDA margins would be up 42% at the midpoint of our current outlook. Tinder's sequential Q3 increase in average PMC was above our expectations. About half of the increase stems from the stock effect of Tinder Gold, which Grég talked about, whereby current users become paying subscribers due to the new feature. This tends to happen in a period immediately after introduction of the new feature, then the impact dissipates fairly quickly. Because we rolled out Gold late in Q3, we saw a burst of PMC late in the quarter. The timing of this surge impact average PMC for Q3 and will also benefit Q4 average PMC. As a result, we expect Q4 to be similarly strong in terms of the sequential increase in average PMC. After Q4, the stock effect will dissipate, and sequential average PMC increases will slow. We also expect Match Group PMC in Q4 to benefit from year-over-year stability at Match and OkCupid, which we are finally seeing. We now expect revenue above our prior expectations at $1.307 billion to $1.317 billion for full year 2017, representing 17% to 18% growth over 2016, driven primarily by Tinder's strength. We expect EBITDA to be $463 million to $468 million for the full year, 15% to 16% growth over to 2016, and margins of about 35% at the midpoint. Excluding the costs related to the Tinder option conversion exercises, which have totaled $15 million for the full year, year-over-year EBITDA growth would be 19% to 20% and margins a little over 36%. We are currently in the process of finalizing our strategic plans for 2018, so I don't want to comment too much yet on where we think next year is going to come out. But I do want to highlight some key factors to consider when looking out into 2018. We expect year-over-year Tinder PMC growth to remain very strong through next year. The end of the Gold stock effect, however, will lead to lower early 2018 sequential average PMC increases than we have typically seen at Tinder. After that, sequential average PMC increases should return to more typical Tinder levels. We expect to deliver a very strong top line growth again in 2018 at Match Group. We believe we are positioned for mid-teens revenue growth next year as Tinder's strength continues and the other brands are stable. Overall, growth won't quite be at the exceptional exit rates we are seeing in late 2017, but Tinder's product work this year should set us up very well for 2018, providing revenue momentum early in the year, which we expect to supplement with additional monetization features later in the year. As with the case this year, new product features that will be unveiled in 2018 will set us up well for 2019. Tinder also has meaningful operating leverage as we scale the business. We do expect to incur some increased regulatory and other operating costs across the company in 2018, including related to the new data privacy regulations in Europe. Even with these, we expect 2018 Match Group margins to be above 2017 levels. We'll provide more details on all of this on our next earnings call. We will now answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open the line to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Douglas Anmuth of JPMorgan.
Cory Carpenter:
This Cory Carpenter on for Doug Anmuth. Two questions on Tinder, maybe starting with Gold. Could you talk about the mix of adoption you're seeing between existing paying subs and also the conversion of nonpaying subs? And then any metrics you're able to share in terms of Gold subs as a percent of overall subs or early views on what you're seeing in terms of renewal rates? And then secondly, could you give us an update on the usage of Tinder's à la carte features in the quarter and any interesting trends you saw, such as may be Gold impacting the usage of Boost and Super Likes?
Grégory Blatt:
Thank you. Look, we don't give out a lot of that granularity. I will say that the way we think about it is the introduction of the Likes You feature itself increased conversion, drives up subs. The introduction of the Gold package drives up ARPPU, but makes that increase in conversion less than it would have been otherwise. You have 2 components going. You have both new people coming in and taking Gold. You also have an upgrade component. On virtually every one of these metrics, adoption exceeds our expectation. So mix is higher, conversion is higher, et cetera. But you really see that reflected in, I think, Gary talked about around a 25% in Tinder ARPPU, and you can see that -- Gary said that half of the -- this upsurge came from this, so you can sort of back into we don't give conversion and mix numbers. Renewal rates were down on Gold versus Plus, which you would expect whenever you make a pricing decision. It was well within the sort of constraints that you would expect on that sort of a pricing increase. As I've said in my remarks, we will iterate on these things over time. You set out one premium, those premiums will be tested and iterated on and all the rest. So these things will move around a little bit, but that's all baked into, obviously, the outlook that Gary walked through. In terms of à la carte, I think we've talked about the fact that à la carte tends to come mostly from people who are also PMC. Therefore, when you see a surge in PMC, you tend to see a surge in à la carte. I think that has played itself out this quarter. People who use Gold will use Super Likes and Boost a little differently, so there is a toggle in terms of how they use those things. But overall, not a meaningful mix shift in those and relatively steady.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer.
Jason Helfstein:
Two questions. So with Tinder, is it fair to say this is the first time you have multiple kind of pricing tiers basically on a product? And as you're going through this -- and clearly is learning because this is new and the uptake has been clearly better than expected. Are there learnings in Tinder and possibly apply that to other products? And then just thinking about kind of how that affects conversion rates, where, historically, we've always thought about, on Tinder, the paid conversion rate would have to be relatively low, but with different pricing tiers, can you have more people on a basic price and then you have this premium price? And then second question, just on international ARPPU, can you tell us what the change was ex currency quarter-to-quarter?
Grégory Blatt:
Yes, Jason. Actually, it's sort of reversed. Meaning, we took all the learnings from the other businesses and applied it to Tinder. We've talked for a long time about the fact that we have effectively a dynamic pricing program. Across our other businesses, we have add-ons, we have packages, we have discounting and premium pricing and à la carte. So we've actually done this far more intricately in our other businesses than we have at Tinder. This is really the beginning of doing it at Tinder. In fact, even before Gold, we do have multiple price points at Plus, which we've talked about. They're geographically-driven, they are driven by a number of components, there's discounting. So our ARPPU numbers always include a whole variety of pricing tiers. I do think it will continue to develop at Tinder. We're far earlier along that trajectory at Tinder than we are at -- certainly, businesses like Match or Meetic, where we're doing this for a long, long time. And so we always think about conversion both on a steady-price basis and on a price-change basis. So yes, over time, what you try and do is you have operatives at a variety of price points, you're trying to get each cohort to pay as much as they will pay. And you have to do that sort of very carefully, right? Because otherwise, if you have a simple one-price subscription package, you're almost, by definition, undercharging your entire subscription base and you are leaving behind tons of people who would pay you something. And our core merchandising program is designed around creating multiple tiers to do that. Sometimes, they had individual SKUs like Gold versus Plus. Sometimes it's just dynamic pricing where you're charging people in this place X and you're charging people in this place Y. And you're charging this person who's been here for 10 days without converting yet, and you start to discount. So there's all sorts of things that go into it. It's very intricate. I'd like to think it's been done very sophisticated -- in a very sophisticated way than some of our other businesses. It is still very much a blunt instrument at Tinder, and one that I think that has a lot of runway for us. I think I've covered all except for your last question.
Gary Swidler:
The question on the ARPPU, Jason, which is, is if you look at Slide 17 towards the back of the deck and it's also in our earnings release, you have the detail on ARPPU. But the short answer is international ARPPU is up from $0.50 to $0.52, so $0.02 increase, $0.01 was attributable to FX and the other half -- $0.01 was attributable to improved rates. So that's the breakdown there, again driven by Meetic and our Japanese business primarily.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Lloyd Walmsley of Deutsche Bank.
Lloyd Walmsley:
Wondering if you guys can elaborate a bit on how some of the non-modernization product innovation drives engagement and revenue over the longer term? And how you kind of frame up the benefits to that more broadly? And then more specifically, as you look to do more post-match features along those lines on Tinder, do you see that kind of expanding the brand proposition and drawing in new demographics? Or is it more you think like they just drives deeper engagement from core demos? Any thoughts you could share there would be helpful.
Grégory Blatt:
Sure. We think about the business in sort of two ways, there's the product experience that we offer people for free, right, and that experience is what creates our user base. People tend not to come for the paid features. They come for the base experience, and then they pay for the sort of extra benefits on it. So at the end of the day, we need to have a great product that is both bringing new people into the category and taking share or keeping share from the rest of the category. Tinder's done that very well. But we see -- one of the reasons we did a lot of the work we did this year on the technology platforms and everything else is the ability to expand that. And by creating differentiated products that both are more effective at delivering, which can be measured in a variety of ways, and more enjoyable to use, et cetera, all are what drives retention, word of mouth. They are the things that we market and will continue to market going forward. So we think of that as sort of the heart and soul of what we do. Once we're doing that successfully, we're bringing more and more people into the ecosystem, we are keeping them longer and that allows us to get more and more people to pay for these features. If you assume a fixed conversion rate, which obviously we don't have, the more people you bring in, to more revenue you make. So at the end of the day, this is what drives the top of the funnel at a company like Tinder. In terms of post-match, post-match is really, I think mostly about creating a richer, more enjoyable, more engaging experience that's more effective that I think will drive greater customer satisfaction, greater word of mouth, et cetera. I think some a stuff we're thinking about in location and some others areas are sort of really outwardly sexy and have the potential to bring in sort of new audience even beyond the categories. So I think we're trying to play both in sort of the heart and soul of dating and also sort of continue to expand definition of it with Tinder. This past year was a lot of blocking and tackling on the tech side. We then did launch some new features. We launched a modernization of our navigation, which a lot of people move through profiles and photos much easier. We launched something called Reactions, which is sort of a fun language for sort of communicating back and forth. And those are all sort of things that we've launched that we think are fun and good. But I think some of the things that we're more moving towards right now are much more sort of potentially transformative and really, I think, can really move user growth meaningfully.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Dan Salmon of BMO Capital Markets.
Daniel Salmon:
So maybe Grég and Mandy, just take a step back with the launch of Gold here. Do you, at a high level, take maybe a different view on what your long-term potential is for PMCs as a percentage of your monthly active users as it's even more traction that you think long term that you can convert to paying users as you add more value and add different tiers? That's the first one. And then maybe just a quick update on the Tinder leadership transition.
Grégory Blatt:
Sure. On the Tinder part of it, look, Tinder has, frankly, exceeded our expectations sort of at every step. So in terms of rethinking our -- I wouldn't say we've -- I mean, there's obviously some ceiling of the percentage of payers, of users that will get to pay. We don't really have a hard view on what that is. We keep rolling out new things, and they keep buying them. And I think we've done a good job. And I think there's still a fair amount of runway there to go, but we certainly don't put a number on it. Mandy, you've obviously seen the other businesses, they're somewhat developed, but you've been continuing to drive conversion as well. So...
Amanda Ginsberg:
Yes, for a lot of other businesses we've worked on, as you've heard, it's been a big focus on product innovation. And we've seen real stability in PMC as a result of it. So for us, it's -- we again don't see a ceiling, although it's certainly more and more challenging as time progresses for the more traditional businesses to see that lift.
Grégory Blatt:
In terms of Tinder leadership, obviously, there's been a process. It's the kind of thing where until there's an announcement, there's not really an announcement. But we feel very good about where we are in bringing that to fruition.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Blackledge of Cowan.
John Blackledge:
Great. On Tinder advertising, you mentioned on the deck that it increased. Just wondering how the partnership with Facebook is going and how we should think about the advertising revenue trajectory into 2018. Do we think about it as kind -- as perhaps a step function uptick? And then secondly, on Tinder. I think you ramped marketing expenses in some emerging markets, like India, to drive adoption and viral user growth. Just wondering kind of how does marketing efforts are going. And for the Tinder marketing spend in 4Q, is that spend intended for those emerging markets? Or is it more broad based?
Grégory Blatt:
Okay. The partnership with Facebook is going great. Obviously, I think we have less than -- '17 will reflect the less than even half year sort of run rate. Next year we'll get the full benefit of that, and so we will have ad revenue increase next year. I'll just repeat what I've said before, which is in light of just how strong the direct modernization is, we are not -- we are doing that and we are growing that revenue, but it is not a major focus of ours. We are not -- on a relative basis, we're not sort of pushing the envelope in terms of ad frequency or that sort of thing. And so given that, sort of once the network is -- once we've anniversaried that, you sort of will grow it modestly, unless we choose to get more aggressive on frequency, and that's certainly not a decision that we're making, I think, in the near term. In terms of marketing efforts, yes, we have -- we stepped up marketing a lot this year much of it international, some of the domestic. I think it's been very effective. I still don't think we've even hit our stride yet in doing it. I think we certainly spent far less than other big players in the space. We've got great growth that's coming both through monetization and through user growth. We expect that marketing to continue and increase again next year. But obviously, as a percentage of overall revenue, which we expect to grow very much next year, it's not growing and, again, I think remains far smaller than, really, the competition.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ross Sandler of Barclays.
Ross Sandler:
Great. Just one for Mandy and then one for Gary. Mandy, just, I guess, stepping back in philosophical changes now that you're taking the baton from Grég around growth margins or the company's use of capital or should we just expect more of the same under your leadership? And then Gary, on the PMC cadence. So the 476,000, if you kind of look at how you guys report and the fact that that's an average, it was very back end-weighted. So the fact that you're guiding the same number in 4Q, just curious what does the October trajectory look like versus September? And why wouldn't 4Q be way higher than 476,000 given that you only had 2 weeks on Android and 4 weeks on iOS in the third quarter?
Amanda Ginsberg:
Okay. So the question on sort of the strategy. These businesses have really grown over the last decade. Not just these businesses, but the category on product and technology innovation. It's been a big strategic imperative for us, and it will continue to be so for me. I know Grég and I worked together for a long time, we've been in the trenches for a long time. So I don't expect any big sea changes. And you see the results today, and Grég is really about building on top of the momentum. In terms of use of capital, like I said, I've been around for a long time and we have certainly been acquisitive in the last decade. But for us, it's really around where there are opportunities at the right price, we're price-sensitive, and it's about investing in -- looking at businesses that provide high-growth and long-term value. So we'll continue to do that. That's not going to change.
Gary Swidler:
I think on the PMC side, I think it's important to understand -- and Grég alluded to some of this, we have the big effect of Gold and you're seeing that and that came late in the quarter. But we also have a lot of momentum leading into the quarter, so that's all reflected in the Q3 numbers. And so even in late Q2, you had seen stronger PMC growth than what you have seen kind prior to that. And so the way that, that kind of math all works out, ultimately, when you take -- look at average PMC is you get this big burst of average PMC increase in Q3, and we are expecting something that will roughly replicate that again in Q4. That's going to be kind of how the math works out. So it's not just that Match has surge from Gold. Obviously, that contributed especially in Q3, as you're saying, but it will start to peter out towards the middle of Q4. And so the surge effect is visible in average PMC increase in Q3 and Q4, and then peters out again after the end of the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brent Thill of Jefferies.
Brent Thill:
Just on Tinder Gold, curious if you could give us a sense of what you've seen in terms of monthly versus 6 months versus annual sign-up out of the gate.
Grégory Blatt:
I don't think we really give that information in terms of package mix. And I think it's still developing at this time. So -- yes, sorry, I don't think we really give that. I think that, over time, we expect it to be -- it's not nearly that we expect them to get meaningfully from Plus, but I don't think we've fully sort of merchandised all the packages in that way yet.
Brent Thill:
Okay. And just for Mandy, just -- when you think about -- you mention building on the base. If you had kind of a single strategic priority as you look that you'd like to achieve going into '18, what -- how would you articulate that?
Amanda Ginsberg:
Gosh, I mean, I officially haven't taken over the job yet, and I'll -- as I get up to speed, I'll develop more sort of my strategic intent. But I think for me, who's been in the business for a really long time, it's -- you've seen tremendous growth at Tinder. It's going to be our growth engine and we'll continue to invest in that growth. And then really around as we stabilize PMC in a lot of the other business, it's building on top of that and cracking the top of the funnel.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Peter Stabler of Wells Fargo.
Peter Stabler:
A high-level question for Mandy. Now that you've completed a lot of the heavy-lifting on refashioning the non-Tinder assets for mobile, wondering if you could talk a little bit, philosophically, about hard versus soft paywalls, and whether you think there are any significant market shifts that of occurred which could, I guess, challenge the hard paywall model going forward. Or is it really just a question of feature sets and making sure that you're addressing the individual consumer needs with those products?
Amanda Ginsberg:
So I think, especially if you look across the U.S. products, which I know well, I believe in the portfolio strategy. I mean, each product offers a very different value proposition. A 45-year-old single mom in Austin is going to be very different than a 25-year-old person who just moved to New York City. And so -- and people will pay for value. When it comes to Match, for example, it's really around the quality and intent. So I think, for us, just having this multiproduct portfolio strategy makes sense. And the business will evolve, but we feel pretty good about this mix of both the hard paywall and soft paywall business.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sam Kemp of Piper Jaffray.
Samuel Kemp:
Mandy or Grég, you guys launched Tinder browser payments during October. Can you talk about whether or not you've tested funneling people away from the app to avoid the App Store tools, and maybe just broader thoughts on the opportunity to do that? And then Gary, just one on incremental margins. When we look at Tinder, it's obviously got something probably close to 75% gross margin given the App Store fees. But when you think about the flow-through of new gross profit down to EBITDA, can you just qualitatively talk about what impacts those dynamics and whether or not that's been improving or stabilizing?
Grégory Blatt:
On the webpages for Tinder, obviously it, as in other businesses, we've had the experience of having both web payments and app payments for a while and the developing strategy there. Obviously, you want to optimize that as much as you can. That 30% is a heavy tax. And so over time, we developed the strategy. They are, as you might imagine, somewhat competitive. And certainly, at Tinder, where we're just sort of rolling that out, we haven't really engaged in that in any meaningful way yet. But certainly, it is a tool that we'd like to use over time to try and help our margin.
Gary Swidler:
When you think about Tinder margins, you're right, 70% gross margins, I mean, expenses being marketing and headcount after that. And we're refining our thoughts on '18 at the moment around that. But clearly, there's natural leverage there. We've hired a lot of people over the last little while. Obviously, these developments -- these developers are expensive. And so we're trying to figure out in a competitive market how to handle all that. And then you got the marketing spend. We ramped up marketing spend very significantly in '17. It's been pretty successful as Grég talked about. We are trying to figure out the right amount to kind of reinvest from that marketing spend into '18. But we're going to continue to try to push that because we think, long term, that's beneficial for Tinder. So we think we can still show good margin improvement at Tinder and overall and still put out the requisite amount of spend that we need for that business. And that is our plan. So we're still calibrating that. We'll give you a little bit more detail on it next call. But the trends are the ones that I spoke about, which is we think there's leverage at Tinder. And we think that'll drive operating margins overall for the company.
Samuel Kemp:
If I can, a quick follow-up on that. Can you talk about the split of marketing spend at Tinder for core geographies versus kind of new footprint expansion?
Grégory Blatt:
I would say it is -- it's roughly proportional to users, a little bit heavier on the user base in developing markets, but it's roughly proportional.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mark Kelley of Citi.
Mark Kelley:
First one is the comments on PMC expectations for Tinder next year, super helpful. I'm just curious, is there anything you can point to historically on the ARPPU side after the surge? Has that stayed kind of similar run rates? Or does that come off at all? And second, given of all the international commentary you've made on Tinder, should we assume that international Tinder PMCs were maybe a little bit more of the mix of this year and maybe that the PMC growth outpaced that 25% you've commented on?
Gary Swidler:
On the Tinder PMC and the ARPPU, our expectation is that you're going to continue to see relatively strong growth in Tinder ARPPU as the stock effect holds. We think we'll be able to maintain close to that, but you might see a little pressure as that effect dissipates. Obviously, that's kind of what we do product wise next year, so it's a little bit early to comment, but those general trends are kind of what we're expecting from an ARPPU perspective at Tinder. And then a question on the international PMC, could you just run that past us one more time?
Mark Kelley:
Yes, sure. I know the first test of Gold was really outside the U.S. or outside of North America. So given that, given the increased marketing spend internationally, should we assume that maybe the mix of Tinder PMC skews a little bit more to the international side this quarter? And that maybe the ARPPU growth of 25% you talked about, did international outpace that?
Grégory Blatt:
I don't think there's been a meaningful shift in the geographical mix of PMC or ARPPU. I mean, I'm sure it varies modestly, but not in the way that we have focused on. And then just going back to the earlier answer that Gary gave, I just want to harken back to an answer I think I gave to Jason's question earlier, which is we are increasingly, as Tinder gets more sophisticated, going to be toggling between rates -- between subscription rates, package mix, à la carte, different SKUs, trade-offs between conversion and pricing, which we've done so much in our other businesses. So I think a lot goes into ARPPU over the course of the year. And it's just -- for better for the business, but frankly harder, I guess, from a modeling perspective. It's very hard to just take a thing and sort of run rate it over a long period of time. So that will move around a lot. And we don't even know necessarily today exactly which trade-offs we'll make because we'll be testing them throughout the year. So I think when Gary gives that sort of top line revenue guidance, in that is a whole bunch of variations that play between these various metrics.
Operator:
Our final question comes from Chris Merwin from Goldman Sachs.
Christopher Merwin:
So just for the core business, you called out PMC being higher year-on-year in October, I think for the first time since August 2014. You also talked about improving trends for the core in the fourth quarter. How much of that is a just underlying momentum in the business as compared to a step-function increase from product updates, like video when that's rolled out? And then just secondly of marketing for next year, you also talked about a change in the strategy on Match as you move dollars from TV to online video. Are you assuming the same efficiency in your marketing going forward? Or could there be any improvement there that we could expect to show up in 2018?
Amanda Ginsberg:
Okay. So regarding PMC, a lot of the gains that we've made in PMC really have been a function of improved product experience. And when you improve product experience, you have higher engagement and so it helps the ecosystem. So it's hard to sort of isolates organic versus what we do because it's all impacted. The second question that you asked was around marketing. I think TV advertising has been an efficient channel for us, and we have to go where the eyeballs are. The good thing is that a lot of the -- there's a lot more video ad products that we're leveraging to be able to tell that longer-brand story. But there's still a delta between TV and online. I mean, TV generally tends to be a more efficient channel in the past.
Grégory Blatt:
All right, guys. Thank you all very much. My last call. To all the shareholders out there for whom I work, it's been a great pleasure. And I have great confidence that Mandy is going to kill it going forward. And in my forthcoming role as Vice Chairman, I will do everything we can to help make sure that, that happens. So very confident. Feeling great about where the company is. And thank you all for your support.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Executives:
Gary Swidler - Chief Financial Officer Gregory Blatt - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lance Barton - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development
Analysts:
Alexander Giaimo - Jefferies Peter Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities Jason Helfstein - Oppenheimer Douglas Anmuth - J. P. Morgan Ross Sandler - Barclays Capital John Blackledge - Cowen and Company Sam Kemp - Piper Jaffray Eric Sheridan - UBS Securities Dan Salmon - BMO Capital
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined by Greg Blatt, Chairman and CEO of Match Group; and Gary Swidler, CFO of Match Group. They will review the Q2 investor presentation that has been posted to the IR section of our website and then open it up for questions. But before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed here today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Over to you, Greg.
Gregory Blatt:
Thanks, Lance. Hey, everybody. Good morning. Glad you could join us for our Q2 earnings call. We had another great quarter, and we're building solid momentum. Before jumping into the quarter though, I'd like to comment briefly on the management changes we announced yesterday. Obviously, Match Group and IAC have been a huge part of my life, been here for 14 years. We've done a lot of great things, but it's definitely been a long run. I started talking about succession with Barry and the Match Group board last year, but we really wanted to make sure that I handed over the keys at a time when things were running really smoothly here. We've been through eight quarters since going public, and you'll hear in this presentation things continue to go really well. In particular, I was focused on making sure Tinder was on stable footing. Top line performance had always been strong, but operationally, we are still in a lot of flux. When I took over from Sean last year, we both felt it was really important that we transition the company from a founder-centric start-up to a more institutionalized company, dependent on no single person and to do so before looking for the next long-term leader of the company. Accordingly, we continued to build out our resources and powering our teams. Sean's involvement became less and less and I'm confident we've now accomplished that over the last 8 months. It's a different company than it was, with better systems, clearer plans, sounder technologies and deeper personnel and I have incredible confidence in its stability and its future. Lots of people were involved in the effort, but a particular shout out to Shar Dubey, who came over from Match Group to act as COO of Tinder during this period. I know what it is to do the weekly commute to L.A., and I appreciate the sacrifices she made to do that. In terms of taking over as Match Group's CEO, Mandy was the obvious choice. She just started running Match U.S. when I joined as CEO in 2009, and we had a great run of successes together. We've had an amazing partnership ever since. No one has to come in and learn the ropes. She knows it all. She's a fantastic leader and is keeping a great team to make sure the good work continues. She'll be on the call next quarter. I'm happy to answer any questions about all of this, but now I'll turn back to the investor presentation. I'll talk about sub growth and product and marketing strategy, then Gary will take you through the financials and our outlook, then we'll take questions. Let's jump right to Slide 4. We grew PMC overall 15%, generally consistent with our expectations. International PMC growth continued to be strong. As we said before, Tinder drives more of the growth rate there because it's larger on a relative basis than in North America, and Pairs also continues to be a great driver. Again, a great acquisition we did last year. North America PMC was, as we expected, dragged down again by Affinity and some non-strategic brands. We expect Q3 impact of that to be about the same as Q2 and then to start to improve in Q4 and progress in 2018. Beyond that, we saw increasing momentum through the quarter in North America ex-Tinder and Affinity, with improved year-over-year PMC growth comparisons in Q2 versus Q1, and July was an especially strong month. We've definitely seen a pickup since the funk at the beginning of the year and things are showing real momentum. So we're feeling really well about the back half of the year. Now let's dig into each of the individual businesses a bit. Tinder PMC growth continues to be great. Q2 PMC growth beat our expectations. It's driven by a number of things. Lifts in registrations from our marketing efforts and our product work to expand access to the product. Our tech rebuild is starting to pay off, especially on Android. Additionally, while we didn't have any big monetization features launched, monetization is really driven by a combination of new features and optimization and merchandising improvements of existing features. And we did a lot on that front in Q2. As mentioned, Q2 strength continued through July. In fact, picked up a bit, which obviously bodes well for the rest of the year. We also just started testing a new Tinder Gold subscription package. It generally includes everything from Tinder Plus as well as a new feature called Likes You, which really enhances the user's experience by letting the user be more targeted in their efforts on Tinder. Similar products to Likes You have been successful on most of our dating products, but as Tinder has done with some of our other monetization features, we take a proven winner from another one of our businesses and then implement it in a uniquely Tinder way. Likes You on Tinder is very well done. We offer Tinder Gold at a premium price to Tinder Plus, which should both drive incremental ARPPU as well as incremental PMC. The test is early. It's only in a few countries, but so far it's very strong. Unfortunately, for a number of reasons, we are late in getting the test started against our schedule, so the global launch is being delayed a bit, which may offset in Q3 any gains we might have seen from its strength, but we'll see. A real shout out here to Brian Norgard, Jeff Morris, Yiqi Meng and Amarnath Thombre as well as their teams. It's really one of the most amazing sustained roles of successes on the monetization side that I've ever seen. Really great work by the teams there. We also completed the initial phase of Facebook ad testing. And at this point, haven't seen any meaningful impacts on retention or engagement. So we're starting to build up our load. We're still going cautiously as the impacts on retention and engagement are our primary objectives here and that can go long term. So we're going to roll that up slowly, but should continue to track impact over time and it's built into our financials. So we feel really good about the early returns, but going slowly. Turning to Slide 6. When I took over Tinder last year, there were a number of objectives I had for the first half of '17, and I'm glad to say we achieved most of them. One of the most important was to have the persistence and the commitment to complete the rewrites of our two native applications that we commenced at the end of last year. These projects are always hard to do. They take longer than expected and often take you down unexpected and at times treacherous paths. But under the awesome leadership of Maria Zhang and her team, we nailed both the Android and iOS rewrites, and now we're back in full feature production mode, with a stronger foundation and the ability to move faster and with less unpredictability. It's really unlocking a tremendous amount of value, and we have greater confidence in what we execute than ever before. Another prime objective I had during the first six months was to develop a long-term product road map really for the first time in the company's history. For a variety of reasons, we've never really had the ability to lay out the plan multiple steps ahead and now we have and we're incredibly excited about it. I'm not going to get into specifics of what we're doing, but over the next 12 months, we expect to completely transform the post match experience, meaningfully enhance the quality of communication, integrate video throughout the pre and post match experience of Tinder, modernize our navigation, make big bets on location, which coupled with our global scale, we think enables it to be a huge differentiator for us. We're going to continue to develop and integrate artificial intelligence into the product in a wide variety of ways. I think we really have a renewed focus on the general proposition that allowed Tinder to revolutionize the category to begin with, which is that connecting with new people should be lots of fun and not lots of work. Really a principle that's going to underpin all the work we're doing. And again, it's incredibly robust, and we're incredibly excited about it. None of this even touches on revenue, where we always maintain a laser focus. Our large and growing tech and product resources continue to be one of our biggest competitive assets and with crystallized long term plans and the app rewrites behind us, we're starting to move really quickly. Let's turn now to our North American businesses, all overseen by Mandy. Last quarter, I mentioned that each of these businesses was focused on a year long journey to more clearly reorient its product experience around its core brand proposition. The ambition was to create more differentiated product experiences, driving higher engagement and ultimately greater top of the funnel activity. We're halfway through the year and generally seeing strong progress. Match in particular had a solid June and an even better July with net adds seeing the best momentum in a while, up year over year in 4 of the last 5 months. We're increasing mobile engagement, messages sent up 14%, which in turn increases conversion. We're getting ready to rollout our next big new feature, Match Stories, and we think it will be the video profile standard in the category. We're putting a great new marketing campaign behind it starting later this month. We intend to follow that up in Q4 with another big feature release relating to new communication framework designed to improve the quality of connections. We'll be backing that with a real marketing campaign. Together, we expect these product changes to have a cumulatively powerful effect in the Match brand. And we expect the performance improvements we've been seeing to increasingly translate into top of the funnel gains, both through word of mouth, press and just improved efficiency of marketing spend. Reflecting our strong May and June, Match's Q2 ending PMC had the best year-over-year comp in two years and July's strength improved that comp even more. We reiterate our expectation that Match will return to year-over-year PMC growth by the end of the year. Turning to Slide 8. PlentyOfFish continues to make solid progress in its effort to organize around the centrality of conversations in the app. Its new smart feature has shown meaningful improvements in conversion rates, and we're seeing really solid improvements in ROI on increased, but still not overly significant online marketing efforts we undertook in Q2. In Q3, we're testing to see whether those gains translate to TV. And if so, we have a nice little profitable growth engine here. I think it's important to note that marketing has a somewhat different purpose in effect for a brand like POF than it does for Match. The combination of Match's hard paywall and its high brand awareness mean marketing is really trying to push near term buys as well as sustaining high brand awareness. For the brand like POF, though, there is low brand awareness and that low brand awareness allows you to create new brand awareness at relatively no spend. And the soft paywall allows that new brand awareness to drive viral word-of-mouth growth in a way that hard paywall businesses don't really allow. So it's a different dynamic. And at least the hope is when you can market something like POF on good ROI as we traditionally measure it, it pays really exponential dividends down the road. OkCupid is similarly making great progress, focused on individuality and substance. It's rolled out a bunch of new features and the resulting increase of 14% in user retention is really, really huge. That's really the first sign that you're meaningfully improving the customer experience. It's a little behind Match and POF in terms of translating that increased customer experience to top of the funnel gains, but there is always a lag effect, and we expect to see those in the coming quarters. Slide 9. There's a lot going on at Meetic, but I want to just focus in particular on their launch of OurTime for over 50-year-old singles in Europe. They took a really interesting approach there that could be a road map for us. Rather than building a whole new product, they effectively leveraged their existing infrastructure as well as an initial seeding of existing users to launch the product. As a result, for very little incremental tech and product expense, they were able to spend marketing dollars on a product that had liquidity in the community from day one. The impact has been amazing. It enabled them to meaningfully increase their marketing spend to a large cohort of users while increasing their ROI at the same time, effectively allowing for really targeted marketing without having to build incremental infrastructure in order to do it. It's very powerful. If you take that and you fast forward it, one of the biggest hurdles to building new dating products is securing that initial user liquidity. You could have a great dating product, but if you don't have the people on it, it's very hard to grow. So from our perspective, the holy grail is really to use our massive existing user base to successfully seed new products that can then grow on their own because of that initial base. This venture into OurTime in Europe is really the first foray down this path. And if we can continue to evolve it, we will be unlocking an incredibly powerful growth driver. Really one of our focuses going forward is nailing that. Turn to Slide 10. I spoke a little bit about AI at Tinder, and that's definitely where we're building the most concentrated team of experts in the area. But given our overall scale, AI's application to our products cuts across the board. On slide 10, we just show a few of the areas where we're beginning to utilize it in our products. I really think AI along with investments in video and location are going to have profound impact on our business going forward. And we're committed to going deep and being the real leader in these areas. Preparing these remarks, I looked back at what I said last quarter and I basically wanted to cut and paste it, but I didn't. I'll just sort of restate that we've never had such a robust product road map across the company, touching on so many different aspects of our products and technologies. Product really is the key to growth in this area, and we've never been in such a good shape on it. One thing I didn't touch on last time, which I think is a really exciting path for us, is geographic expansion. Recently, Alex Lubot, who has been CEO of Match Group Europe for years, added to his focus the rest of the world outside North America, South America and Europe. And that increased focus is really uncovering a wealth of opportunities. He has brought a lot of energy to it, globe-trotting to parts unknown, and I definitely expect us to increasingly expand in new geographies under his watchful eyes. No question that our international footprint will surpass our domestic footprint before long. Really just fantastic growth opportunities out there across the board and as the global leader, I'm very confident we're going to capture them. Now I'll turn it over to Gary for the financials and be back for the Q&A.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Greg. Now let's turn to the financial review and outlook for our business. Slide 12 has our key financial results for the quarter. Total revenue growth was 12%. Total revenue would have been $315 million or 14% growth without FX effects. Direct revenue grew 14%, driven by 15% PMC growth, and ARPPU was down $0.01, primarily due to FX. Our international business grew direct revenue 28%, driven by 31% PMC growth, while our domestic business grew 6% in both direct revenue and PMC. We had a $1.8 million decline year-over-year in indirect revenue as we continued to experience lower ad impressions in our non-Tinder brands and Tinder was in the initial stages of testing its Facebook program. The trends in the overall business haven't changed significantly since our last call, as Tinder and POF drove our growth, while Affinity negatively impacted both PMC and revenue growth as we continue to right size that business. We had 7% operating income and 8% adjusted EBITDA growth year-over-year. The $110 million of EBITDA in Q2 was ahead of our expectations, primarily due to lower marketing spend, partially offset by $2.7 million in professional fees related to settling the Tinder equity plan. As we expected, marketing and headcount costs rose at Tinder compared to Q2 2016. We are gaining traction in a number of international markets, including India, Brazil and Russia. Our EBITDA margins dropped 1.3 points year-over-year, largely as a result of the increased spend, which was also in line with our expectations. Operating cost and expenses were 73% of revenue compared to 72% in Q2 2016. Sales and marketing spend was 28% of revenue versus 30% in Q2 '16 despite increases in marketing spend at Tinder as the mix of our businesses continue to shift towards lower marketing spend brands, and we reduced marketing spend at our Affinity business. Operating income grew at a slightly slower pace than EBITDA because of an increasing continuing consideration and noncash comp, partially offset by lower amortization of intangibles from our POF acquisition as the scheduled amortization from that acquisition concluded at the end of 2016. Slide 13 shows our ARPPU, which has continued to be very steady across our brands. Total ARPPU is $0.53, down from $0.54 in Q2 2016. Total ARPPU declined just 1% on a constant-currency basis. North American ARPPU was down about $0.05 for the quarter even as Tinder PMC comprised a larger portion of our North America business. Tinder's North America rate increased meaningfully, driven by continued strong a la carte revenue. A la carte revenue now accounts for 1/3 of Tinder's direct revenue. International ARPPU is down $0.02 or 3.7%, due entirely to FX impacts. International ARPPU for the quarter was flat at $0.51 on a constant-currency basis. Turning to the next slide, 14. We've generated $138 million of free cash flow in the first half of 2017. And year-to-date, we've converted 71% of our EBITDA into free cash flow. We expect mid-60s free cash flow conversion for the rest of the year, an improvement over 2016 levels and better than our initial expectations for 2017. CapEx for the year is running $25 million to $30 million, slightly better than our expectations. We continue to grow our cash balance, as you can see on this slide, ending the quarter with $493 million of cash on hand, of which $310 million is held domestically. We're now at a comfortable 1.6x net leverage and 2.8x gross leverage. We have significant financial flexibility to pay the cash taxes on the former Tinder equity awards, pursue M&A and other initiatives. On Slide 15, I'd like to explain the Tinder equity plan settlement that we executed in July. Tinder founders and employees held awards in Tinder under the Tinder equity plan. In May, we began a scheduled process to value Tinder and provide liquidity to vested Tinder award holders. We hired two investment banks to conduct detailed due diligence and provide a public company value of Tinder. As part of that process, we opted to convert all Tinder awards to Match Group options based on the value of Tinder the banks have determined. Holding Match Group options provide Tinder employees with more value transparency and greater liquidity and is also beneficial for Match Group's shareholders because it reduces swings in our dilutive shares based on changes in Tinder value. Increases in our dilutive shares are now primarily tied to changes in Match Group's stock price. Our fully diluted shares outstanding increased modestly, given the higher valuation of Tinder from the banks compared to what we have previously assumed. We expect to net settle and pay withholding taxes on behalf of the employees in cash for many of these options reducing the overall dilutive impact. The next slide lays out our outlook for Q3. Overall, as Greg said, our businesses are very much on track, with Tinder continuing to grow revenue at a rapid pace, Match getting closer to PMC growth, PlentyOfFish, OkCupid and our international businesses contributing as expected and Affinity continuing its rightsizing. Tinder Gold's early results look very promising, but it's delayed launch will impact Q3 slightly, although provide potential upside for Q4. Our expectations for Q3 are revenue of $322 million to $332 million, 14% year-over-year growth at the midpoint and $110 million to $115 million of EBITDA. A slight delay in launching Tinder Gold globally and slower ad revenue growth trends are impacting Q3 revenue. Q3 EBITDA margins will be a little lower year-over-year as we invest in Tinder. But we are still positioned to hit our target of flattish margins for full year 2017, especially given the margin expansion we saw in the first half of '17. Tinder's product innovations with heavier and more complex features are driving higher-than-expected data costs. Given how important app performance is to Tinder's success, we feel that spend is worthwhile. We're also a little ahead of schedule on Tinder hiring. Both of these items will have some rest of the year EBITDA effect. One-time cost of settling the Tinder equity plan will impact Q3 as employee payroll taxes and some additional professional fees flow through. The increased Tinder marketing and data costs, hiring being ahead of forecast and equity plan settlement costs in aggregate will impact Q3 EBITDA by about $7 million. On our last call, I noted that we expect Match Group revenue momentum to build throughout the year as Tinder's product momentum accelerates from a slower first half, which have been focused to a large extent on tech cleanup. We continue to expect this to be the case with our year-over-year revenue growth rate in Q2 representing the low point for us in 2017. Tinder's Q2 increase in PMC was well above our expectations of being lower than the Q1 increase. We continue to expect a strong PMC growth trajectory at Tinder in the back half of the year as current momentum continues and we roll out the new Tinder Gold subscription offering globally. As I mentioned, overall ARPPU has been stable, and we expect it to stay flattish for the rest of the year. The Gold subscription package should also improve Tinder's ARPPU. Having provided a full update on Q3, I want to point out clearly that we're not changing our full year revenue and EBITDA ranges we provided earlier this year. We have significant business momentum and initiatives in place across our brands. Finally, we expect Match Group option exercises by current and former Tinder employees will result in a tax benefit that will materially reduce or eliminate our 2017 full year tax provision and largely or even entirely wipe out our domestic cash taxes for '17. All in all, we had a very strong Q2 financially, and we're executing on our 2017 strategic priorities. Tinder has a very exciting product road map ahead, and the Match North America brand is poised for return to PMC growth. Our businesses are doing a great job of modernizing their products and tying their marketing message to the updated products. With that, let's open the line to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question will come from Brian Fitzgerald of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Alexander Giaimo:
This is Alex calling in for Brian. Can you just talk a bit more about the early results you're seeing from the Tinder Gold test? Maybe the overall strategies for converting the free users to the service and upselling the current Tinder Plus subscribers to Tinder Gold? And then maybe any updates or guidance you can provide around pricing for that offering?
Gregory Blatt:
Sure. I think -- the only update I'll give at this point, given how early in the test we are, is the performance is strong. There is a lot of -- both a lot of people -- a lot of existing Tinder Plus users upgrading and also the new feature is driving a lot of conversion from non-T Plus users. I mean, effectively think about it the way our other monetization features work, which is you can go directly to the settings page and buy it, but a lot of people buy it because through the product experience, they land somewhere where this is offered naturally within the context of the product. You're then given the option to either pay for it or not. What that does is it means both existing Tinder Plus users and non-Tinder Plus users will come to a point, where they are offered this feature. And at that point, they have the ability to buy Tinder Gold. If you're an existing T Plus user, it's an upgrade. If you're not, then it's effectively just an entirely new subscription. So it works really essentially the same way as all our other features do, which is to say quite well. Obviously, conversion has been going really well, and the team has done a great job of on-app merchandising. In terms of pricing, it's at a premium to Tinder Plus obviously, but we price pretty dynamically. We're in testing. The extent of that premium will probably vary over time and vary market to market and vary in a number of different ways. So for us, pricing is an art and a science. And we're constantly evaluating it. So I think quantification doesn't really make sense for us. Was there another part to that question?
Alexander Giaimo:
No. That was it.
Operator:
The next question comes from Peter Stabler from Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.
Peter Stabler:
Greg, wanted to ask you a couple of questions on going back to Slide 9 in particular, the point about launching new brands, wondering if you could give us a little more color here. Would these be, to the extent you can, mobile-only brands? Are we talking about apps? Are we talking about desktop and mobile? Any color on geography or markets served? And then just kind of generally on portfolio strategy. Does this mean that going forward, you might look at the overall portfolio and some of those smaller Affinity brands might be demoted or discontinued. Just some overall thoughts on portfolio strategy would be great.
Gregory Blatt:
Sure. Look, we're always developing new products. Some of them we launch and we put real money behind and some of them we don't. Usually, we put them out and seed them a little bit. We see what happens. These are often done -- they're done both organically, people come up with ideas and centrally, where we're trying to solve specific problems. One of the hurdles in the category generally again is that the product only works to the extent you have people on it. And there is that classic marketplace chicken-and-egg challenge. And my only point is that on OurTime, although I won't get into the specific tactics of how they did it, they were able to use some of their existing population to make sure that the product wasn't empty on day one. And that provides increased conversion, increased customer satisfaction, et cetera. And I think that it is very much a focus of ours going forward to be able to translate that in various ways into new product development. Our focus is primarily mobile. I think it will be unlikely that we would go desktop first. There may be products that we launch depending on the demographic on both. For instance, OurTime in Europe was a clear candidate for both desktop and mobile, given the demographic. There are many others where it will be mobile first. And I think that -- I don't have specifics to get into right now about exactly what we're getting after and anything else. But I think that launching new products, potentially buying early-stage products that don't have liquidity that we can bring liquidity to, is definitely going to be a part of our ongoing strategy and an increasing focus for us.
Peter Stabler:
And then a quick one for Gary, if I could. Just wanted to make sure I heard you correctly, you're reiterating the full year guidance?
Gary Swidler:
That's exactly right.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Got a big picture question and one a bit more specific. So Greg, when you think about long-term, what should long-term revenue growth be ex-Tinder? And then how do you get there? And then, Gary, specifically, you talked about North America Match seeing PMC growth by the end of the year. Is there a specific expectation for Meetic by the end of the year also?
Gregory Blatt:
Yes. Look, I think obviously, revenue growth is fantastic right now. I think you have the law of large numbers obviously, so the growth rate declines over time. But it is incredibly strong. We expect very strong double-digit revenue growth certainly for the foreseeable future without sort of meaningful product breakthrough. I think our strategy though, is to continue to try to roll out product features that continue to expand both the product, market and the category overall. I talked about a real focus on location. I think location leads in a lot of directions to broaden the use case in the market for Tinder. I think our integration of AI and our integration of video are really going to start to increasingly set Tinder apart from everything else. And so I sort of look at Tinder in two ways, what's the growth rate on the current trajectory? I think it's very solid and will continue to be the real driver or the major driver of Match Group revenue growth for certainly several years. But I also -- we are very much playing not just for that but for a meaningful expansion and a reacceleration of that through the incredible product work that we're doing, again at a scale and a pace that I think will be unparalleled in the industry. So that is sort of the upside piece that I can't really quantify, but is very much what we're playing for.
Gary Swidler:
And I think Jason as far as the different brands growth, we've talked before about the brands that have been around for a while growing in the single-digits somewhere, hard to pinpoint exactly where. That's where we have seen Meetic growing, and we expect to get Match there as well. We're talking about how it's going to get to growth by the end of the year, and we think it will be moving into those single digits over the course of '18. So I don't have more specifics than that, but our goal is to get all those brands growing in the single digits. They're not 10-plus-percent growers anymore, but single digit should be achievable from our perspective, especially with all the product and brand work that we're doing.
Operator:
The next question comes from Douglas Anmuth from J. P. Morgan.
Douglas Anmuth:
First one just on Tinder Gold. Just wanted to understand more about what gives you the confidence in the product at this point? And how do you think about it internally in terms of size or impact perhaps relative to Super Likes or Boost, maybe around where those were kind of in their testing phase? And then just secondly on the full year guidance, totally get that you're reiterating what you guys played out there before. But just given the fact that we're seeing a little less advertising revenue, some of the marketing spend is slower and Gold is delayed, can you just help us understand the acceleration more in the back half of the year and keeping those numbers?
Gregory Blatt:
Sure. On Tinder Gold, I mean, we look at the test there. There are a hell lot of people signing up. So that's why we get excited. Obviously, we had a great deal of confidence in this product coming in. We expected it to be one of, if not the single biggest driver of incremental monetization that we've launched since the beginning. It is so far playing out that way. When you launch new subscription features, there is always a stock and flow effect, where you get a huge rush coming in and then it softens a little bit, and we're pretty good at projecting that. But you still don't know for sure until that stock -- that initial surge has subsided. And we're only in a few test markets right now, which is why we're being cautious to quantify. But the results are really, really strong. And so when you talk about the rest of the year and the delay, the delay sort of impacts Q3, but our confidence in momentum sort of gives us confidence in Q4. And so you asked the question I'll turn that over to Gary in a second, but we've had very strong July momentum. And I think as we look ahead, we think the combination of that plus the -- what we think will be really exceptional performance of Tinder Gold in Q4 give us a lot of confidence. Gary, anything to add to that?
Gary Swidler:
I think that's right. I mean, I think if you look at it on a very short-term basis, Q3 is affected by a number of weeks where Tinder Gold hasn't been able to be rolled out and some of the other effects you pointed to. But as Greg said, it looks very promising. And so as the year goes on, we think it could create some real additional momentum for us. And it's early to quantify that. It's early to call it. We're still testing it, but that's definitely a factor in kind of what impact it is. It's a timing issue more than anything else. Marketing spend, I think is fluid. We've given our guidance for Q3, and we feel we've got good momentum now on the Tinder side and we're going to spend up in Q3, but we've got a lot of decision to make on Q4 at Tinder as well as across some of the other business on marketing. So we've got some fluidity on the marketing spend side. Ads, we're continuing to make progress with the test, and we'll see how that all plays out. Again, we've given the Q3 impact. We'll see what that bodes for Q4. So all that enables us, I think, to leave our ranges where they have been for the entire year and still feel good that we're going to fall within the range from both a revenue and an EBITDA perspective.
Gregory Blatt:
Also, look on the ad stuff, I want to be clear that the slowness of our build is especially in the second half of the year with the Facebook network, is really a matter of discretion. I mean, we could turn it up faster and harder. I've made the decision to go slowly. I think Tinder has got great momentum. I don't want to take any rapid steps to potentially derail that. I think advertising could be a meaningful part of our long-term plan, but I don't - I personally don't want to be too aggressive on it right now. So we're building it slowly. And I also can't underemphasize the strength we had in July, both at Tinder and at Match and a number of other businesses. So it gives us a great deal of confidence in the back half of the year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ross Sandler of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Guys, I have two questions. First is, how is the initiative to convert users on Tinder on the web versus in the app going, just any update there? And then the second question, if you look at the PMC decline ex-Tinder, it seems to be getting better even factoring in that 140,000 of Affinity brand wind down. So I guess if that's gone by the fourth quarter and those legacy brands or older brands are growing mid-singles, what are the risks as we look forward into '18, '19 and beyond? Could that be the steady-state growth for the ex-Tinder PMC going forward? Any other factors you'd call out that could impact that in the future?
Gregory Blatt:
Sure. I think you meant North American PMC ex-Tinder, I think is what you are referring to and ex-Affinity. I think just to clarify, I said that the impact of the Affinity run-off will start to decline meaningfully in Q4, but won't be gone. So we've got sort of Q2, Q3 sort of trough and then it gets better in Q4 and will continue to get better and I imagine would be gone sometime in '18, but that will continue. With the rest, look, it's been a multiyear transformation from desktop to mobile. We've had great deal of confidence along the way that we would both sort of reverse the negative conversion trends, which we have done. And that the product improvements we've done would translate into re-growth in the top of the funnel, which we are well on track to do. So our ability to predict with absolute precision when those things would take place is inherently sort of difficult. But where we are right now, as we've said, POF is doing well, Match will return by the end of Q4, OkCupid may or may not return by the end of Q4, but if it's not by the end of Q4, it should be early in '18. So we feel really good about it. Our ability to predict what challenges we'll have two or three years from now, I think it's fighting the competitive fight that we fight all the time. I think our products have the inherent benefit of existing scale and brand awareness. By the end of this year, I think the products will be second to none on mobile in terms of doing what they each seek to do. So we feel really good about our ability to have a baseline single-digit growth rate there. And look we're always playing for better than that. I think there is a big hole in the market right now -- sorry, there's still a lot of people in the market right now looking for something more serious who have sort of thought of Match maybe not as the vibrant exciting thing that, I think it is very much becoming. I think with this cumulative product rollout and our marketing campaigns, I think we've got a real chance to not just sort of get back to growth but to get back to real growth. I really think it is a big untapped area there. OkCupid, again, I think, has a lot of opportunity. It still has a great niche and I just -- I'm more optimistic than the single-digit growth rate long-term at least in some of these brands. I think overall it's probably the right way to think about it. But in terms of the risks, it's just the fact of ongoing competition and our ability to continue to execute, which I have great confidence in.
Gary Swidler:
I guess Ross' other question was around the Tinder Web and kind of where that...
Gregory Blatt:
The Tinder Web is still in rollout. We are launching -- we are starting the test of Tinder payments, I think in the next week or so. So we've got to see how that goes. The whole Tinder Web and sort of the ability to sort of capture margin through moving to Tinder Web is really a long-term project. Building out the payment system on a global basis is a big project. Obviously, to date, Apple and Google have handled all that for us. So that's been a lot of work. We're going to start testing it, I think next week or the week after. And that test will go on for a while. And I think that's a long-term plan. We have confidence in it. Again, I don't -- it's one of those things that I consider upside. We'll absolutely take some margin there, how much, we'll have to learn over time. We've had really good luck in our other businesses, but Tinder is different. And we're cautiously optimistic, but we'll let you know the progress as we roll that out. May not even be -- I guess we will have early returns next quarter. But once you've rolled out the payment system, you then need to develop the strategy and implement the strategy for customer shifting. So I consider that a multi quarter strategy.
Operator:
The next question will come from Lloyd Walmsley of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst:
This is Kunal for Lloyd. Two if we could. One, on Tinder video, have you started doing A/B testing? Would you plan to use it for retention primarily or for revenue enhancement? And then on international, you highlighted Brazil, India and Russia. Are there existing apps or services that could be attractive acquisition candidates? Or are you planning to extend existing brands to the new geos that you are looking over the next few quarters?
Gregory Blatt:
On Tinder video, we've not yet started A/B testing, but we are very much in development. I think it will play a number of roles down the road. I suppose it could have monetization characteristics, but we're focused on just creating a great product for users. We've got a great plan for how we're going to implement it, and we expect that to be rolling out later this year. In terms of geographies, there are certainly existing products in all of these geographies. I think when we're looking at the geo, we try to determine obviously three different approaches. One is our existing products, the other is building new products and the other is buying products. You take a country like Japan, which we saw as a really big opportunity, we're really doing all three. Even before I got to Match in 2009, Match proper was in Japan. We still continue to run that business in Japan. Tinder has aggressive efforts in Japan and we bought Pairs, which was a sort of native business in Japan. So there we sort of did all three. In Brazil, again, we have both Tinder, and we bought a business a while ago called Par Perfeito, which is down there. We look at those situations and those opportunities everywhere. I think it's -- I think it will continue to be a combination of those three depending on the market. As I mentioned earlier, Alex Lubot now very much has his eyes focused on rest of the world where most of the people live. And there are some really interesting opportunities. And when we get into Asia, some of these dating products function rather differently than ours do. And they start to expand the definition a little bit. So we're looking at a lot of exciting things. I think it will continue to be a combination of build by and extension.
Operator:
The next question comes from John Blackledge of Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Just two quick questions. For Tinder, just wondering how the marketing efforts are going in emerging markets. Are they having kind of the intended kind of impact on having the platform go viral? And then just with the second question on acquisitions with the cash balance rising, kind of what's the appetite for acquisitions? And is there any particular geos that would make sense?
Gregory Blatt:
Where we are in the Tinder marketing, I think as I outlined at the beginning of the year is, the first thing we wanted to make sure is that our spend had impact. It clearly does. It's driving a lot of registrations. The next thing we wanted to make sure of is that those registrations weren't sort of one-time, that they actually had a viral component and helped the market generally. And we determined that it does. I think we're now in a stage of really trying to quantify all that so that we can fine-tune the amount of our marketing. I think that takes time again as I've said -- just because of the data we can capture. I've told this story -- I think every quarter, there is always a fierce competition for products and technology resources at Tinder, even as we continue to expand those capabilities. We expand a number of things we want to do that we think can add value even faster. So at this moment in those geos, we don't have -- we don't capture all of the data we can to precisely measure long-term ROI as we do in our other businesses. But the impact we're having is clear. So we continue to spend and as we continue to measure more and more accurately, we'll evolve our spend either upwards or downwards over time. But we feel really good about the impact we're having right now and those efforts continue robustly. In terms of cash balance and acquisition, I think our cash balance has never been a constraint to acquisition. So we've always had the ability to raise capital, we've had the ability to use our equity. Obviously, if that cash balance grows, it becomes easier. But in general, we're focused on finding the right opportunities. I think geography is going to play an increasingly big component of that. Again, I think that as we look at things in more extended geographies, the definition of dating products evolves a little bit. And I think you'll see some real activity there over the coming year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Sam Kemp of Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.
Samuel Kemp:
Tinder continues to have pretty strong PMC growth, but at the same time over the past several quarters, you've called out tech product and advertising feature rollout delays that have been caused within the platform. Just wondering can you kind of isolate down the reasons why those delays happen. Is it resourcing? Does it have to do with what you called out about the company being more founder-centric and kind of what are you doing to address those? And then can you give us an update on the monthly average users for Tinder and maybe, a split by domestic versus international?
Gregory Blatt:
Sure. On the operational side, we've certainly gotten a lot better. I have an anecdote I like to tell, which is I guess about 6 months ago, I was saying that one of our big strategies is going to be -- we're going to have more resources than anybody else, and we're basically going to be bringing guns to a knife fight, and our head of engineering at that time quipped, yes, but we keeping shooting ourselves in the foot with these guns, and we've got to stop doing that. I think just last week, we were talking about it, we're like, we're not doing that anymore. So I really do think that our execution has improved dramatically. A big part of that was taking the time to rewrite these applications. I think that process, as I said earlier, is very hard to predict how long that takes because it takes you down roads. And I think that during the first 6 months of the year, that definitely went on longer than we expected. I think that is the main reason for the downstream impact of delays that you're talking about right now. You look -- at Tinder Gold, we delayed a little bit, but then it got caught up in the App store for a little bit too. So there are always reasons for these things, maybe we aggressively planned because we think that's a good operating strategy. I think the ad stuff historically has been delayed, that has primarily been a fight for resources. And a general de-prioritization against features that drive growth and customer satisfaction and direct revenue. So I think it's been a combination of things. I think you'll see that much less going forward. I think we're really starting to fire on all cylinders. And so I don't view it as an endemic long-term issue that we'll have to grapple with, although we'll always grapple with resource constraints no matter how big we grow because there are just so many things for us to do. In terms of relative balance of international and domestic, it stayed relatively constant, I think. U.S. users and subs make up less than 1/2 of the whole, but more than a 1/4 of the whole. So it's somewhere in that 1/3-plus range. And then you've got the rest spread between Europe and rest of world, which we look at both similarly and differently depending on what we're looking at. International continues to grow faster than domestic, which we've talked about, but growth everywhere has accelerated recently, as we mentioned, both in terms of our marketing efforts and our product successes. So we feel really good about where we're headed there.
Operator:
The next question comes from Eric Sheridan of UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Maybe just a few on the Tinder equity plan settlement just so I understood. The way you talked about stock-based compensation in terms of Q3, is all the impact in stock-based compensation in Q3 from the equity plan settlement? Or is there anything else you're calling out there? And is any of that going to repeat after Q3? Or is it sort of a one-time settlement? Second, on Slide 15, you say Match continues to own 100% of Tinder. I think a lot of people are always of the impression that ex the management equity, it was closer to 85%, 90%. So just wanted to know if we could get any color there? And then last, you said there's been a valuation that's been put on Tinder as part of this process. Any chance you would like to share that with us?
Gregory Blatt:
Let me take the first part of that. In terms of the ownership, Match Group has always owned or at least for years has owned 100% of the equity ex-Tinder management. So we've talked about it at sort of a fully diluted treasury basis method, we talked about our ownership, but in terms of ex-management, we've owned 100% for several years. In terms of valuation, look, we're not going to talk about that. It is two people's opinions. Other people can have lots of different opinions. And we think it's generally reflected in our stock. And we will never ever think that valuation is where it ought to be, but what it came in at was not dramatically different than what you might think. The conversion is a one-time event. Tinder equity holders now hold Match Group options. I think the major accounting effects were realized this quarter, is that correct Gary? And we don't see any ongoing impact from it.
Gary Swidler:
I think just to put a finer point on the SBC. We do see $5 million or $6 million more of SBC in this coming quarter. This additional amount is what our guidance reflects, $21 million in total, which can be seen at the back in the appendix. That total number reflects the impact of this Tinder liquidity event. So for the year, we're probably running $5 million to $6 million ahead of where we initially thought, and that is as a result of the increase in SBC that we're seeing. And that's going to flow through in Q3.
Operator:
The next question will come from Dan Salmon of BMO Capital. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Greg, I was hoping you could spend a little time talking about the opportunity for the 50-plus demographic? You've obviously got a couple of brands now in Europe, sounds like -- or a couple of launches in Europe, two more countries coming. But I'm sort of interested to hear your thoughts on the opportunity. Maybe in emerging markets a little more, if you look at that demographic in Asia versus North America, for example, how you think about what that opportunity could be over the long term? And then second, and a bit of a similar question, some of your largest independent competitors remain ones that are oriented around religious affiliation. I'd just be interested in your updated views on the company's view of that demographic?
Gregory Blatt:
Thank you. Europe didn't really have this category. And we tackled it. It's frankly, it's something we've been talking about for a few years tackling, but we -- just through the constraints around how much you can execute, we didn't get to. And on Meetic, we were increasingly seeing that it's a very robust audience -- growing audience, growing part of our user base. And so effectively tackling it made a huge amount of sense and we were able to tackle it more as a way of meaningfully expanding our marketing efficiency, because we didn't have to build a wholly new product from scratch. I think in the U.S., we've got our OurTime brand, that we've obviously put a lot of focus in. I think it requires some more product work. I think that we -- Match and our Affinity brands in the U.S. share resources much more than any of our other businesses do, and we definitely have put the focus on Match over the last 12 months. So I think that the product will improve more. I think we'll start to do more targeted offering for that audience than it's been -- and we think there is real opportunity there. I think beyond Europe and the U.S., I don't see it as a real near-term focus. It tends to be -- you start to sort of stratify our approach as you reach greater and greater levels of penetration into the market. And I think when you go beyond Europe and United States, there is just so much more room to go in the heart of the market that I don't necessarily see going at targeted demographics as being the near term strategy, although obviously, that can change. In terms of religion, we do some religious based offerings. Obviously, we've, not surprisingly, looked at buying some of the ones that are out there and at least to date have thought that wasn't the right thing for us to do. I think it remains a possibility, but again, I wouldn't call it an area of strategic focus for us at the moment.
Operator:
And this concludes today's question-and-answer session and also concludes today's conference call. We want to thank everybody for joining today. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a great day.
Executives:
Lance Barton - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Gregory Blatt - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Gary Swidler - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Brian Fitzgerald - Jefferies & Co. Dan Salmon - BMO Capital Markets Peter Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities Jason Helfstein - Oppenheimer & Co. Eric Sheridan - UBS John Blackledge - Cowen and Company Heath Terry - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Brandon Ross - BTIG LLC Douglas Anmuth - JPMorgan Mark Kelley - Citigroup Lloyd Walmsley - Deutsche Bank Nat Schindler - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Barton, please go ahead.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I am joined on the call by Match Group Chairman and CEO, Greg Blatt; and Chief Financial Officer, Gary Swidler. Greg and Gary will be reviewing the investor presentation that has been posted to the IR section of our website and then we will open it up for questions. I'd also like to remind everyone that during this call we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be proceeded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed here today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Now I'll turn the call over to Greg.
Gregory Blatt:
Hey, everybody. Good morning. Glad that you joined us for our Q1 earnings call. We had a great first quarter and year is looking very solid. I'll talk about sub growth and product and marketing strategies, and Gary will take you through the financials and our outlook then we will take questions. Let's jump right to Slide 4. Overall PMC growth was very strong, driven by international PMC growth which was really excellent. Tinder drives more of that growth rate because it's larger on a relative basis in North America, Meetic doing really well, POF and OkC both are starting to contribute more internationally and Pairs in Japan continues to prove to be one of our smarter acquisitions in a long, long time. As we said on the last call, the end of 2016 and start of 2017 had sort of a wired funk to them in North America, sort of across the board in our businesses for no clear reasons. We thought maybe election, but we don't really know. Regardless, it finally pick up again in the beginning of March with that rebound continuing through today. This initial slowness combined with some marketing spend shifts to Q2 impacted North America PMC a bit, but nonetheless we are generally on track. We had strong growth from Tinder and POF, Match and OkC were generally consistent with what we expected. And of course the biggest impact on the quarter was from affinity and its continued control run-off casting us a large chuck of PMC on a year-over-year basis. Again, that loss of PMC is unprofitable PMC. So it doesn't really affect our underlying economics, but it does drive down the year-over-year sub comps and has an impact on year-over-year revenue. We expect that negative affinity comp to persist for several quarters. Now let's dig into each of our individual business a bit. Slide 5, Tinder obviously had great PMC growth in Q1 and it's starting to slow just like the bunch of our other businesses, but then picked up again in March. We launched SuperLike to non-subscribers and continue to drive up overall revenue through optimizing between PMC and a la carte. Again most of the things that we do through PMC, we can also do through a la carte, in fact many of them we do on a hyper basis with the subscription you get some part of the a la carte usage. So we are sort of constantly optimizing there and toggling, and focus primarily on revenue growth not necessarily PMC growth or a la carte growth in isolation, but optimizing the two. It's pretty amazing that we are now number two in app store revenue for non-gains globally behind only Netflix. We are certainly always confident that we will be able to build a great subscription business on the Tinder products, but it's obviously incredibly gratifying to see it come through the way it has. It's an incredible business with great monetization characteristics. We have also implemented the Facebook Ad engine we talked about last quarter. We use it to fill access inventory beyond our direct efforts. On testing with the rate somewhat by the tech debt related feature freeze that we talked about last quarter and we will talk about a little bit more later, but it's starting now. We should have a good sense of where we're going to be on that front next quarter. Turning to Slide 6. On the Tinder product side there continues to be a lot going on. Two very long running projects; SMS Authentication and Tinder Online are both now in test, it's early, but the preliminary results are promising. It looks like we should see a user bump to specialty internationally, but it's also too early and noisy to quantify. Additionally on the online business, we will be watching online payment sometime in Q3. We certainly never get the same sort of mix of payments online as we have with our other businesses, but over time we do expect to be able to move a portion of our users to pay us outside the app store. That will be a nice bump to margins, but we will play out over time. Again, hard to predict the exact level of impact at this point, but once we've launched it we will be working to optimize that part of the business. We also finished finally cleaning up our tech debt in both our Android and iOS app. This is a big multi-month project occupied a lot of our tech resources. Thankfully it's already paying nice dividends in terms of reduced crash rates and generally higher performance. Probably most importantly it really should set a solid foundation for easy integration on products going forward, easier code to write fewer bugs and just faster iteration. Finally, now that we're finished with our feature freeze, we've got a number of new projects in the pipeline that were changing navigation, improving our recommendation engine in part through the uses in very cool AI from our dedicated and top notch data sciences team at Tinder. We are adding new revenue features and a host of other cool stuff; I can't really talk about yet. But I said last time the Tinder will look and feel different to our users by the end of this year and we are well on track to bring that around. A ton of energy is going into increasing Tinder's vibrancy, creating new features and experiences to enhance our relationship with our users all key to driving our continued growth. Slide 7, as we turn to our other business, I want to step back for a second. Going back to when we are taking Match Group public. Our big challenge in these businesses was conversion. We are dealing with a huge shift from desktop to mobile and our products couldn't keep up. We said we are confident we could fix it, but new we have to prove it. I'm glad to say that the outcome on that is no longer really in doubt. After seven consecutive quarters of conversion declines which dramatically impacted this business, we've just completed our fifth straight quarter of conversion increases year-over-year. We've created mobile products, did not work for our users and they're responding accordingly. Having fixed that part of the product, we're now turning our attention to grow in the top of the funnel. Here we're again looking at product is the driver the backed in many cases by marketing spend. As I mentioned in last call during our quest to develop mobile products that work well, our product lost their individuality. In this space you need to be differentiated, you need to stand for something. Over a period of years, our product to develop their unique identities over more than a decade gave a fair amount of that way. Now we're fully oriented around getting it back. Let's start with Match. As you could see here on Slide 7, we said we're going to improve mobile web that we have. We said that we rebuild conversion and it's now at highest point since 2014. The reality is the biggest collection of online daters, and potential online daters with a high propensity to pay, the right in the Match trend we'll ask. These people want our relationship. They want to trusted band and they're willing to pay for filtering based on intend. There's no other product that they're better positioned to continue to capture and to further expand into this group. The sweet spot is Match is to hold and to expand. Our strategy for 2017 is to release a cool distinctive new feature each quarter of 2017 and build an aggressive marketing campaign around each one. The first is misconnections, the location based feature that is really driving engagement. We just launched a new TV campaign around a couple weeks ago. Our first ever campaign really focused on a product feature and the early returns are promising. Next quarter, there will be another feature back by another campaign then the next quarter after that and then the next quarter after. The roadmap is set. We think each individual feature related campaign will be effective, but we also expected cumulative effect from the aggressive product release schedule and heavy marketing focus on our product innovation. Match has never done anything like this before. Frankly, I've been doing this a long time. I can't take a single product owned by us or anyone else. It will release the series of significant consumer features in such rapid succession and we're going to that each of those rollout with the most significant marketing spend in the entire category. We really think by the end of the year and it made major changes in how people think about Match and our ability to grow our user base in that most attractive of all users segments. Slide 8, turning to OkCupid, who doesn't who are core users are and then try to bring features that appeal to those users to the forefront. OkCupid has always had a uniquely educated and engaged audience. But OkCupid as it transition to mobile, a lot of avenues for self-expression and lots of centrality of it's Q&A engine which is always been the heart of that engagement. Now we're getting its mojo back. It really is a fundamental redesign, more way to present express yourself on a substantive level, funny ways to deploy the Q&A engine throughout the product and we're seeing significant conversion increases year-over-year on the new product, because OkCupid isn't backed by meaningful marketing spend. It may take a little longer for the improvements experienced by our current users to translate into increases in new users, but we believe it's only a matter of time. This will be a very unique product once we got rolling our changes through and we think very true to its heritage and its core appeal we expect this to really resonate the meaningful audience and drive renewed growth. On Slide 9, each of our products work differently. They all do the same thing, but they do in a different ways and the cool thing about POF is the average user has twice the number of conversations the users rather products do. It just naturally more of a communication app. The barriers or fewer, the audience is more open to engagement. This tries uniquely social experience on POF, but no one really knows that. Now we're bring it all to the forefront of its branding and its product, design features that drive that highly conversational elements and remind users of that's what makes POF special. We're very early, but conversations were already up 14% year-over-year due to these changes and again we are really just getting started. As with OkCupid, we think is kind of distinctiveness drive satisfaction, which drives increased towards the amount. But we've also been spending some marketing dollars behind POF and it's been quite successful in Q1. We see the opportunity to ramp POF marking throughout the year and that can give us a whole new avenue for growth. Slide 10, Meetic approach right now a little more tractable. For example it's recently developed a new AI driven chatbot to help accelerate traffic to registration conversion. This is just featured by Facebook at the recent F8 Developer Conference is being the standup chatbot applications. It's really cool to small test deployment right now, but I think for shattering the kind of really special things, we can do is we invent deeper and deeper into new technologies. Additionally and probably more immediate impact, Meetic will be launching a whole new product in Q2, backed by marketing investment that we think will really get traction in Europe. Can't get into the details now, but this is more than a little app that we threw out there and see what happens, it really fall at the Match Group concept of identifying target audiences, delivering products to meet them and through that bring down our acquisition costs. We think there's an opportunity to drive additional subs with new channels for profitable marking spend and really looking forward to launch. It's a real part of our sort of increase in marketing spend throughout the year. In all, my many years here, we've never had such a robust landscape of product development innovation and differentiation laid out for us across the board. Over the next 12 months, we expect to be going deep on location based technology, deep on video, deep on game dynamics, deep on artificial intelligence, ranging across our products each one making different best to leverage common successes, while reestablishing their unique individuality. The end of the day, we're trying to deliver cool products to our users to help them make meaningful connections to their lives in front end engaging ways and the pipeline has never been impact as it is right now. All these new features grow out of the coming months. The marketing start to get behind it and I am confident, we're going to see our top of the front of these brand start to grow just like conversion did year-ago. Gary?
Gary Swidler:
Thanks Greg. Now let's turn to the financial review and outlook for our business. One note everything I discussed exclude the Princeton Review because that sales closed at the end of March and we are now including a discontinued operations for all periods. On Slide 12, you can see that we experience strong revenue operating income EBITDA growth in Q1 2017. As Greg mentioned, you actually started a little weaker than is typical, which caused us to be a little conservative in our outlook for the quarter, but March and April of - trends compared to January and February. For Q1 total revenue of $299 million, up 15% driven by 16% PMC growth in steady ARPU. FX impact caused as $3.5 million in the quarter or one point of growth. Revenue benefited from increased year-over-year marketing spend in Q4 2016 that manifested itself at higher revenue in Q1 2017. Typically year-over-year changes in marketing spend have a largest impact on subsequent quarter year-over-year revenue comparisons. International direct revenue grew 30% driven by 33% PMC growth. International benefits from our fast growing Tinder business representing a greater portion of revenue. North American direct revenue grew 8% year-over-year with Tinder and POF driving strong growth, but the intentional right-sizing of affinity brands was a significant headwinds. We are optimizing the affinity brands for long-term profitability. As we cut on profitable marketing spend, we reduce subscribers in revenues, but don't really affect profit. We should be in a position to start growing properly again affinity once we right-size of the business. We're down just slightly on ad revenue in the quarter as we continue to work to offset the reduction and impressions caused by the shift to mobile at our formerly desktop brands with higher average. Note that our results do not yet show the benefit of Tinder's agreement with Facebook's Audience Network, which began testing in April. We had 72% operating income and 28% adjusted EBITDA growth in Q1. The quarter benefited from some cost controls, but also a decline in year-over-year marketing driven primarily by significant decreases at affinity as well as some pushing of marketing spend from Q1 into Q2. Operating costs and expenses were 80% of revenue compared 87% in Q1 2016. Operating income also benefited year-over-year from $6.3 million decrease in amortization intangibles related to the PlentyOfFish acquisition and $1.9 million reduction in expense related contingent consideration in connection with the previous acquisition. Slide 13, shows our ARPU, which has continued to be very steady. Total ARPU grew $0.002 year-over-year, but around and it looks like a $0.01 change. The six largest businesses in our portfolio Tinder, Match, OkCupid, Meetic, POF and Match Affinity all shows flat or higher ARPU year-over-year in Q1 on a constant currency basis. North American ARPU is up $0.01 for the quarter, we're selecting better monetization in most of our brands partly offset by the mix shift to lower price brands. International ARPU was down 2% due to FX impacts. The FX impacts in the quarter was $1.07. International ARPU for the quarter was up 7 times of a $0.001 on a constant currency basis. Overall ARPU increased approximately 1% or $0.005 on a constant currency basis. Tinder's ARPU Q1 continued to benefit from strong a la carte revenue from subscribers was continue to more than offset for shift to lower ARPU international markets. Overall ARPU will continued to be slightly impact by our gradual portfolio mix to our lower ARPU brands and the faster PMC growth we are seeing in international markets. Turning to the next Slide 14, we had $84 million to free cash flow in Q1 and we continue to grow cash balances. We recognize meaningful proceeds from the sale of The Princeton Review just under $100 million and so we now have $436 million of cash on hand, $260 of it held domestically. As you can see from the right side of this slide, we've been delivering quickly. We're now at 1.8 times net leverage and 2.8 times gross leverage, below our three times target. For some time we've been saying that we use our cash to the delever or for opportunistic M&A that remains the case, but today we're also announcing that our board has authorized us to repurchase up to 6 million shares of our stock. We think this is a great additional capital management tool for us to have. We are very mindful that our public flow is quite constrained and we still expect flow to increase over the course of 2017, but our stock had tended to fluctuate fairly meaningfully and the buyback authorization enables us to take action if the circumstances warrant. This is not a buyback authorization. We plan to go into the market aggressively. It's possible we don't use it at all, but we do think given our cash flow characteristics that's a good arrow to have it on cooper and enables us to act opportunistically to drive longer-term shareholder value. The buyback is similarly size the proceeds from the Princeton Review sale, so you can think of it is potentially returning gross proceeds to our shareholders, so again, how much of this will end up using. Given our strong free cash flow generation and our strong balance sheet, we're confident in our ability to consummate a buyback, continue to delever and execute compelling M&A transactions should they present themselves. Turning to the next Slide 15, this lays out our financial outlook. At this time we are not changing our full-year 2017 outlook. We're on track to be within the region we presented and it's only Q1, so we're not going to tinker at this point. We've always said that marketing spend can vary easily quarter-to-quarter which can impact any individual quarter, but EBITDA over the course of an entire year and that's the case here. Altogether, our first half of the year will be very close to what we expected coming into the year. While marking spend was down significantly at our non-tinder businesses in Q1. We expected to ramp on a year-over-year basis during the balance of 2017. We expect marketing spend to be up meaningfully year-over-year by Q4 2017. On our last call, I noted that we expect revenue momentum to build throughout the year as Tinder's product momentum accelerates from a purposely slower first half which has been focused to a large extent on tech equipment and we see the expected improvements in our non-affinity businesses driven by revitalized product and increased marketing spend as Greg spoke about. That remains the case. Additionally, ad revenue should ramp as the year progresses. Tinder's increased in average PMC in Q1 was impacted by the somewhat slow start to the year that Greg mentioned in his remarks, but this has picked up nicely beginning in March. We continue to expect Tinder's Q2 increase in average PMC to be moderately lower than Q1 given normal seasonality with an accelerating again in the back half of the year as we roll out some significant new monetization initiatives. As we had said previously, we are focused on overall revenue growth at Tinder not specifically subscription revenue and are targeting between subscriber growth and a la carte revenue. A la carte revenue is increasingly contributing to Tinder's performance. Our Q2 revenue really reflects the impact of the decline in Q1 marketing spend. The ramp in marketing spend at Timber and non-affinity brands in Q2 will impact our Q2 EBITDA. All in we had a strong Q1 financially, we're executing on our 2017 priorities and we are reiterating the full-year outlook we provided on our last call. With that, let's open the lines to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-Answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today will come from Brian Fitzgerald of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Brian Fitzgerald:
Thanks, guys. Artificial in terms it seems like an interesting way to innovate some of your products, we saw checkup launch on Meetic platform, can you talk maybe about avenues in which you could utilize AI that is in the future and how you see it playing out for your other different brands?
Gregory Blatt:
Yes. It's going to be very big. Tinder alone we've built an unbelievable dedicated data science team run by Professor Lou, who take over from McGill, all they do is work on AI. It is most simple form right. It's going to drive amazing enhancements to recommendation engines. I mean the technology they are developing within a few swipes they can start to tell exactly what you want, who you're interested in et cetera. And the early prototype they're very exciting. Then goes to be able to select where you should go on a date. Make proposals about sort of common interests and common suggestion, and it's really exciting. There are also various things we're playing with in terms of augmented reality and communicated through augmented reality through AI that sort of allows with facial gestures and other forms of non-verbal communication to pick up signals and send visual back and forth, it's really amazing - it's amazing what we're starting to be able to do. Chatbot, we take this another example of it. So I think I mean everywhere AI is just starting to scratch the surface, but were making a big investment in it. It's not quite rolled out in our recommendation engine yet, but will be soon and really expect it to just build from there. So we think it's one of several exciting technology sort of vectors that are starting to sort of really transform category location, video, AI, I think these are all the very big and we are making investments across the board.
Brian Fitzgerald:
Great. Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Dan Salmon of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Hey, good morning everyone. Gary, as I sit here and look at I guess Slide 13 with ARPU trends here, I think back it was always part of our thesis at least that this bigger trend down over time. Is that still the case, I mean did it appear that maybe over the long-term, especially Tinder is performing above your expectations? I mean you said in your prepared remarks, you really expected it to be a platform that monetize as well. But I'm just curious more than just with the incremental product developments are doing on the smaller things? Is there a big picture change that's happening here? And then secondly just specifically on Tinder social perhaps just a little bit of an update on what you're seeing for engagement there and you mentioned PlentyOfFish, the higher rate of conversations than other apps is that an opportunity for more social opportunities there? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
Thank you, Dan. On the ARPU I think I do expect it over time to decline although I think modestly. What you have - what has happened over the last year and a half has really been able to sustain Tinder ARPU through the growth in all of our revenue to subscribers. That will continue to some extent, but I do think the exceptional growth we're seeing in rest of world PMC at Tinder. We'll start to overwhelm that. Pricing is different between North America, Western Europe and rest of world, and while PMC growth is strong everywhere. Shockingly, the rest of the world is bigger than North America - than Western Europe. And we're seeing proportionality there. So I think that it hasn't declined as fast as we expected certainly and we've adjusted our own views of the rate of mix shift and our ability to offset it through these other means. But I do think of the long-term it will decline modestly. The POF question was - on Tinder social I think we want Tinder social in the form that we did I think it is not in hugely impactful. I think that we continue to run it and I think we are pursuing a number of social features that don't run through Tinder social per se. So we tested something called Tinder tonight. We're also working at a number of new features, the goal is still to engage people beyond one-to-one, Tinder social itself was not hugely impactful. In terms of POF, I think the higher conversation rate is unique to POF. I think because it is more social in terms of people communicate more, I don't know that it's necessarily leads to social dynamics the way we're pursuing in Tinder, and go by the Tinder, I think it's a different audience space, something in a different case and I think Tinder is the place where you will see the most social dynamics in terms of groups, events, all that sort of things versus some or other properties.
Dan Salmon:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Peter Stabler of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Peter Stabler:
Good morning. Two if I could. First of all going back to the affinity wonder if you could give us a little more color on the run-off you put in the 120K. Can you give us a rough split, GO split of the 120K and then can you help us at all size the run-off going forward and when we might start lapping that? And then secondly on Match you talked about the product oriented marketing plan Greg you - can the first time you guys have gone down this path. And you said it's going to lead to higher marketing spend behind Match just want to make sure that all of that increase in marketing spend is already fully contemplated in your guidance? Thanks so much.
Gregory Blatt:
Yes, I'll take the second one first, the answer yes. We said that our marketing spend is somewhat variable through the course of the year. We sort of pretty cap on and we certainly don't think on margins will come down as a result of the marketing spend, but it shifts around between different businesses. We certainly have always contemplated increasing the Match marketing spend throughout the year, as Gary said was in our number were down in Q1 year-over-year marketing spend we expect to be up meaningfully by Q4 year-over-year. So the Match marketing spend is relative to week expand that we talked about in terms of the new products all of that built into our guidance.
Gary Swidler:
So Peter the run-off of affinity and the run of the street brand are two slightly different things I just want to make sure everybody is clear on this we have some non-strategic brands that portfolio that we acquired that we are intentionally running down.
Gregory Blatt:
Portfolio that we acquired cheap and these where you know $7 million acquisitions that pick up and see experiment et cetera, but have meaningful PMC.
Gary Swidler:
So those have been running down for several reporters but they remain as they continue to run down a headwind on North American PMC numbers and it is a relative piece but when you look at the totaled 120,000 PMC, but that bulk of that is caused by affinity which is this step function run down that were potentially doing as we focus on higher ROI targets for our affinity marketing spend. And that impact is going to it's prevalent in this quarter it's going to last for another two or three quarters as that business gets right-size and then net impact will start to lessen. So that there we're going to see in our performance and our metrics for the next couple of quarters and then that will be less of the factors. So I just one of make sure ones clear and what's the impact is in our PMC numbers as you feel both of those impacts one that's going to continue to run down and one that is a function of the next two or three quarters and then will start to improve.
Peter Stabler:
Apologies Gary, but sort of 120 is predominantly North American.
Gary Swidler:
I am sorry it's all of the business in North America.
Peter Stabler:
Okay.
Gary Swidler:
Okay most the non-strategic brands all guys in North America and got the two components the non-strategic brand as well as the affinity cost of the predominant piece of the 120 a run down.
Peter Stabler:
Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Okay.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. Two questions, so one, can you comment or give color on MAU to PMC conversion just any color would be helpful? And then second, the magnitude of the Tinder a la carte and advertising when we think about getting to fourth quarter of this year or early next year maybe help us understand as you're thinking about it how big that could be relative? Thank you.
Gregory Blatt:
So MAU to PMC conversion it continue to drop as I said we don't get five consecutive quarters in all are formally you know all are more established brands that conversion go up is obviously positive. On Tinder which is sort of excluded from that group. Again conversion continues to be strong Gary said we're going to launch some new significant modernization feature in Q3 we haven't really launch anything this significant while that will continue to drive up conversions. So conversion overall across portfolio is definitely going up. Gary you want to take that question?
Gary Swidler:
On the outside we talked about first of all we don't feel the impact of the Facebook Ad Network program yet in our result, but as that continues to be implemented we will see if we get revenue from that and to the Ad revenue is scaling in the back half of the year and we talked about being a little bit faster than our revenue growth on outside. So this quarter is basically just down side on that but we should see improvement in the direct revenue line as the year progresses.
Gregory Blatt:
And then on a al carte, again I think the majority of our al carte revenue comes from subscribers and that is built into our ARPU line. So I think that it's all obviously within the guidance. And I think that as Gary said ARPU is sort of holding steady at Tinder much as a result of those increases in a al carte. We are starting to grow a al carte outside of PMC which is not included in the ARPU number and still relatively small. And I think it doesn't have positive impact, but it's not sort of continent moving by any stretch at this point.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Eric Sheridan of UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe one for Greg, just wanted to understand all that product detail that was really great, I think is that question probably aren't in terms of how that product innovation works through the conversion as move through 2017 and 2018. So maybe just a color of product innovation and how it please out the marketplace, I think any color you could give there would be really helpful. And then Gary, nuance question, but the share count was a little bit higher than we thought in Q1, I just wanted to understand that was one-time in nature in terms of the share counts for the Company? Thanks guys.
Gregory Blatt:
Okay. On product, I think there tend to be although not always. A bucket of product work to drive conversion in a separate bucket of products work that drives usage marketing users. Not always different, but they're usually different. And clearly as we develop product in the non-conversion bucket, we are very mindful not to trip up conversion bucket. When you look at something like misconnections, which actually drives the increased communication, in the product like Match increased communication drive increased conversion, there are sort of very aligned. SuperLike at Tinder was an example of something that it was both. But on a business like POF for instance where it's free to communicate driving out conversation doesn't necessarily impact conversion one way or the other, it just drives additional usages. So I think the way to think about it is there was always conversion work being done in the background that you don't necessarily see or hear about it from us, but you are going to hear about it sort of out there. And then there is that consumer facing stuff that is a stuff where a user uses the product one day and then uses the product next day and that's different and that sort of what I was outlining today. As I said our focus has not been there over the last three years as we've really been focused on trying to create a functional mobile products that drive monetization the way we need to and now we're really focused on that sort of excitement factor, the differentiation factor. And we've don't expect it to negatively impact conversion and in fact we expect that. In totality we will be driving conversion up through the year even as we drive those initiatives.
Gary Swidler:
And Eric, on the share count if you're focused on shared outstanding related to the adjusted EPS calculation which shows about 20 million share increases quarter-over-quarter. That's really related to the adoption of ASU 2016-09, which basically adjusts the treatment of excess tax benefit. You can no longer assume with the shares are bought back. So a little more than half of the change in that share increase is related to the adoption of that with the remainder of it related to new option grants and things like that that occurred in the first quarter. So it's the accounting change that is really driving that number of shares higher, the total is about $20 million and you gain about a little bit more than half is probably related to the accounting change.
Eric Sheridan:
Perfect. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from John Blackledge of Cowen. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great. Thanks. Couple questions, what are total affinity subs now and how much more runoff in 2Q and 3Q? Second topic would be Match.com U.S., you guys sort of tracking on plan, just wondering what that means from a PMC perspective or Match.com U.S., PMC is up down flat in 1Q and how does that trend through the rest of the year? And then last kind of topic, Tinder, a la carte can you give us a sense of the split between a la carte and sub revenue for Tinder and maybe just advertising spend a small for Tinder right now. If you can just give us sense of like long-term mix of Tinder sub-revenue versus a la carte versus advertising, sorry for all the questions. Think you.
Gregory Blatt:
I was testing my phonography skill, which I'm sure I'll sale that. On the city side, again we don't give the individual sub numbers for any of our businesses by Tinder. I think that run-off that number is going to be somewhat sustained belt that proportion on a quarter-over-quarter basis for a couple quarters. I think it's a meaningful portion of the affinity pretty subs, but certainly a lot less than half. And we've got a stable core very profitable subscriber there that we're going to retain and then build. In terms of Match, Match PMC year-over-year, again we don't give the number, but it is down slightly as we start to ramp up the marketing and the product initiative. Again we said by the back half of the year - in the back half of the year, Match in OkCupid will sort of cross over back to the year-over-year sub growth and we still expect that to be the case. In terms of Tinder a la carte, again the most we can say is that the bulk of that is from subscribers and that is built into our ARPU because we toggle, we have a whole - we talk about this in a lot of other businesses in the same holds true for Match. We think about pricing on a dynamic basis. We sort of established a subscription fee. You build off that, then over time you start to discount to certain cohorts to drive additional sub, simultaneously you offset that by offering ad on a la carte features to those subs who willing to pay more that's how we've been maintaining ARPU at Tinder even is international mix is grown. So we toggle between those tactics all the time and I think thinking about them in separate and thinking about them as to what percent if we get it really the right way to think about it or model, it not right the way we do it. We think about it mostly as an ARPU driver with some additional revenue opportunities outside the sub base. Did I get all or did I miss - I don't remember with the ad question, what…?
John Blackledge:
The ads question.
Gary Swidler:
I think just trying to get a sense of the direction on ad revenue. I think what we said is, again ad revenue growth overall for the year to somewhat faster than our overall revenue growth is going to be relatively flattish in the beginning part of the years. So we'll ramp as some of the Tinder initiatives take all the back half of the year.
Gregory Blatt:
But also again, I've also said driving the ad revenue as fast as we can is not our priority right now. It is hard to believe, but we still struggle over engineering resources, fighting for where they go every day, no matter how many people were added. We don't have enough people to do all the things we want to do. So it's a struggle and just the reality is that the ad business is not the leading priority there as we continue to drive out really cool consumer facing features and focusing our direct revenue basis. So I think that you were testing the Facebook piece and you get it right our plan is for to grow slightly better than direct revenue. But it's not as much of a focus as the other and I think we're learning a lot about it and we expect that to be the case. But I think we're not pushing as hard on the pedal as we could and don't expect to this year.
John Blackledge:
Okay. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Heath Terry of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Heath Terry:
Great. Just a couple of quick questions, on the Affinity network customers that you're churn off. Are you able to migrate them over to one of the other platforms, even if it's to one of the premium platforms in a way to keep them in the ecosystem or do you have a sense of what they're doing once they leave the platform? Are they going to a competitor or they're just giving up on all together? And then on Tinder, as you look to grow internationally and have gotten further into monetization with some of the efforts here in the U.S., any change in your view of what you see the sort of steady state paid member penetration as a percentage of MAU or as a percentage of the total base being over time?
Gregory Blatt:
Surely thanks. On the first question, I said we say that we are still a lot of doing nearly as much as we could and should be doing in terms of managing users across the portfolio. We do some mostly between Match and our Affinity brands we have not really begun to tap into the opportunities with our soft paywall businesses and our hard paywall businesses it is a question of resources. There is lots of opportunity there to move people both ways which we really have not begun to do. So unfortunately the answer is we have not meaningfully I mean get there are some movement right now between Match and our Affinity businesses, but we have not developed any special strategy for doing that here. I think a way to think about it and therefore we're not sure where they're going I think a way think about it is these are generally people who are harder to attract who we've had to pay more to attract therefore somewhat less valuable consumers I'm sure that some of them moving coming back using our product maybe there are some using other products of those again our affinity users to a lot of the affinity just especially the harder to acquire friendly users tend to be not as robust users of products. So I think there's probably leakage from the system there and that was driven by our overspending to acquire them. In terms of the Tinder penetration continues to go up, it is driven by new features, new markets et cetera. We don't sort of publicize our penetration rate set and you know in our long-term we expect that as rates continue to grow for certainly for the foreseeable future and again we monetized as I said we expected to be able to drive the meaningful business on top of this great product. It is gone even better than we expected and we expect that growth to continue, lease for the foreseeable future.
Heath Terry:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Brandon Ross of BTIG. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross:
Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions guys. First, thinking more about ARPU trends can you help us size for you are at in the Tinder sub mix between North America, International X rest of world and then rest of world and where you think that goes over time? And then what's your best guess as to when you see core returning to Europe for your sub gross at this point is that still a back half of 2017 event. And then just one more you authorized some modest buyback and talk to future capital returns in the prepared remarks. How thought is your capital return program to IAC Ownership? Thank you.
Gregory Blatt:
Okay. Let me trying - I'll take the last one first which is it's not our buyback program that our capital return I mean IAC is that obviously a significant shareholder has represented on the board but Match get managed for Match in it shareholders. I see as certain rights I think it has a preemptive right to get exercise that want to as not done that but our capital deployment is driven by our own corporate governance structure. In terms of Tinder sub mix again we don't give up the specific data say that if you take North America and Western Europe together which behave pretty similarly made up obviously the majority I would say probably you know you can think about it maybe is three quarters one quarter roughly, but record world is growing faster than the rest and so over time we expect this growth everywhere but over time we expect rest of world to expand as a percentage. In terms of holding affinity aside in terms of the certain North American core. Yes, I think by the end of the year we do expect that's become positive again affinity is going to you know obviously level said it. But we're still on track, we still on track with any side.
Brandon Ross:
Thanks very much guys.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Doug Anmuth of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thanks for taking the question. Two things, first Greg just wanted to ask on Tinder and just how you're thinking about kind of learning so far on experimenting with products inside and then outside of the PMC Paywall, SuperLikes you had originally kind of the inside for PMCs and then moved out. And then when you talk about the significant monetization features in 3Q, should we assume that that's really just for PMC? And then secondly if you could just comment a little bit more on the timing and kind of a trend that you saw in 1Q the weaker January, February and into the better March the degree to which that's continuing into 2Q and how to kind of think about that relative to your comments on a seasonally slower quarter as well? Thanks.
Gregory Blatt:
Sure. In terms of - if I understood your first question, look our philosophy on our soft paywall businesses is generally that we offer features behind the paywall that we couldn't really offer to everybody. Meaning if we have a feature that it's going to make everybody experience better, but we will give it to everybody. But there are some features that if you gave everybody would hurt the echo system which you can give to a smaller number of people, for instance Boost is an example. Boost is a feature where it allows you to sort of move yourself ahead in other people's rec engines or by definition you couldn't give that to everybody because it's a relative comparative advantage, so you charge for it, same thing with SuperLike. The whole point is to create scarcity and then you'll allow people to buy beyond that scarcity. So that's the way we sort of think about features that are paid and think about features that are unpaid. In terms of new monetization feature, we are rolling out roughly as I said were somewhat agnostic behind which we exactly how we make money in this area. And I think that this feature in particular maybe something of a hybrid the way some or other features have been. We're actually experimenting with a number of different ways to do that. We're confident to drive monetization meaningfully and certainly PMC will be a part of that, it may or may not be the only part of that. It was just weird. I mean I don't know I've been doing this for a long time sort of in November thing sort of just became a little muted. It stayed muted in December, it stayed muted in January, I think we talk February 1 and I think we said it was sort of a weird start to the year continued into February, absolutely turned in March has continued in April, it's sort of things are back to the world that we know better. I have no expertise or ability to tell you exactly what was going on and then I was a little weird. The best thing we could point to was that it was sort of the post-election was weird and there was a lot of weirdness, but we are not pundits. I don't really know exactly what happened, but it was not brand specific, it was sort of across the board. So that's really all we know.
Douglas Anmuth:
And within that weirdness was it both engagement and conversion or more of the latter?
Gregory Blatt:
It wasn't really conversion, it was more - again once conversion is really driven by the people - once you get the people in the door conversion is product related and [indiscernible] floating on traffic really across the board both in our marketing and non-marketing businesses, so everything was just a little slow that's all.
Douglas Anmuth:
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Mark Kelley of Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Mark Kelley:
Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. And I'll apologize if this is answered, bouncing between calls, so if you address this stuff, sorry. On the Facebook inventory, I know it's super, super early, I know it was pushed out a little bit, but any indication of what you might expect in terms of that - CPM would be helpful. And then in terms of Tinder mobile web, what kind of adoption are you expecting relative to app usage? Is there anything that you learned from Match that could maybe help us think about how that progresses? Thank you.
Gregory Blatt:
On the ad side, I think we are not getting the CPMs here, but the big target for us is going to be ad load at Tinder. And I think work started as I said, I think we're going to be conservative this year. We've not built in terribly aggressive to ad loads, but we care most about in Tinder is our user experience and certainly at the ad levels that we've been driving through our direct business there's zero impact. Is the Facebook deal allows us to frankly do whatever ad load we want from sort of unlimited inventory? So now that the constraints till their own view of user experience. We're going to test that over time. I think we're doing some additional testing now and then we'll sort of set a bar and roll it out more broadly probably end of Q2, beginning Q3. We're going to be somewhat conservative there, which is built into our numbers for this year. I'm losing my short-term memory. What was the other question? On the online piece, second hardest thing to project that we've done. We think it's really cool. We think it's an opportunity to again hopefully increase margins and also to create a somewhat different experience to the desktop pieces. The mobile web piece is relatively similar to the native app that the desktop experience just really cool and different and sort of lead the different use case. But we don't really know. I think any comparisons to match would just fall short, I mean match the mobile web is a big part of the mobile experience. We don't think that will ever happen here. But it was enough that we know that we can drive mobile usage especially - I mean mobile web usage especially in sort of lower bandwidth market where the native apps are harder. So we don't know. We think collectively as I said between the Ethernet and the web products. We are seeing in early test of night pubs in user shift. But it's probably too early to quantify, certainly not built into our numbers. It will be a little slow in rolling it out, because they are big changes to the ecosystem and we think there's some positive upside there. And there are big projects and it's nice to see them have a little payback.
Mark Kelley:
Got it. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Lloyd Walmsley of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Lloyd Walmsley:
Thanks. Two if I can. First, just following up on the Tinder mobile web question, just curious what kind of user behavior you're seeing there? Is that more of a kind of reduce friction around a trial and then migrate someone into an app or do you think someone will use the web version on mobile permanently? And do you think these users of the same capacity to convert to paying members? And then second question, last quarter you guys talked about some trials of influence or marketing in emerging markets that sounded like kind of inexpensive, but promising tactics. Wondering if you can just give us an update on that?
Gregory Blatt:
Sure. On the mobile web side, again it's early and I think most of our testing has been done in markets that, that's not in the U.S. It's not in some of our bigger more established markets. I think that internationally, I think there are areas with smartphones, with smartphones challenges, with bandwidth challenges, there is some reluctance to download dating apps on to your desk, which we think it's an online usage use case. There is desktop. So we think it could be a mix of incremental users and joint usage, but it's early and we just can't really layout exactly how that's going to play out yet. In terms of the conversion, again we're rolling out payments in Q3, unlike all our other businesses that are set up for credit card pay and et cetera. Tinder has done everything to the app store and building that up at scale is not a small patch you have to prevent fraud and there's all sorts of stuff. So that's going to roll on Q3. We think conversion. We would naturally expect conversion on a similar user, meaning on the same user, we expect conversion to be lower that too we've seen our other businesses. But the question for us is the 30% lower. It is not 30% lower than we make money by shifting from the app store to mobile web and we think there will be opportunities to do that exactly how much and how materials will be, we're not predicting right now. It's certainly worth the effort, we're building it and we're going to see over time.
Lance Barton:
Okay, we have one final question, we have time here.
Operator:
Okay. Our next question thank you - will come from Nat Schindler of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Nat Schindler:
Yes, probably quickly Gary, you mentioned that you would see float increase over the year even as you operating $6 million buyback, wondering where the shares are likely to come from? And also has there been any update or any more talks from IAC with their plans on the Match shares?
Gregory Blatt:
On the second question the answer is, it's not something we deal with I see I know how investor call, yes I think we get investor call tomorrow, they're the shareholders they may those decision. So no question should be directed to them. In terms of share cuts we've got a lot of security I think we've been public now for will be go on two years we expect there to be exercised over time there could be M&A activity. So it's not we're not thing you're going and doing some big secondary operating in two months but just naturally we expect flow to continue to increase and we don't expect our buyback activity to be greater than that natural increase inflow.
Gregory Blatt:
Listen thanks everybody for joining us. Let this quarter we're excited about the rest of the year and we look forward to speaking to you guys next quarter.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you, everyone for attending today's presentation. The conference has now concluded. You may disconnect your lines.
Executives:
Lance Barton - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Greg Blatt - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Gary Swidler - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Peter Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities Douglas Anmuth - JPMorgan John Blackledge - Cowen and Company Chris Merwin - Barclays Eric Sheridan - UBS Dan Salmon - BMO Capital Markets Victor Anthony - Aegis Capital
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Match Group Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Match Group earnings call for the fourth quarter of 2016. Joining me on the call this morning is Greg Blatt, our Chairman and CEO; and Gary Swidler, our CFO. They’re both going to review the Q4 investor presentation that we have posted to the IR section of our website and then we will open it up for questions. Before we start, I’d like to remind you that during this call we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements typically may be proceeded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that behind us, I’ll now turn the call over to Greg.
Greg Blatt:
Hi, everybody. Welcome. Glad to have you with us. Q4 another solid quarter for us. Just going ahead to Slide 4, PMC perspective pretty much what we thought stronger international continue driven by Tinder, Pairs in Japan, Meetic, et cetera. Little softer North America again given what we talked about last quarter, which is the beginning of the effects of our controlled PMC run-off at Affinity, which again we talked about would have an effect sort of throughout this part of the year. And a reminder that gloriously this will be our last quarter talking about pro forma for POF, as that will anniversary, and we will never have a look at that again. Moving to Slide 5, Tinder subscriber growth continues to be great, really you think about it from 0 to almost 1.8 million subscribers in under two years on a global basis, really is a phenomenal, no signs of relenting here, see it moving up the app chart in terms of gross revenue, really just continues to be a phenomenal success story and going very well. Focusing a little deeper on Tinder at the product side, we have really been cranking here. Again, we’ve scaled up dramatically in 16 in terms of resources. Over the last few months, we have really been focused on three principal projects. One is the web application and the alternative sign up to Facebook, which we talked about last quarter. We expect those to launch, both of them in Q2, we think they are real opportunity to expand the top of the funnel and give access to users who currently are not for a variety of reasons using Tinder. Additionally, and this was a little unexpected. We sort of paused in Q4 and decided to really tackle some tech debt and we devoted a huge number of our resources to doing so. We are just hitting such a scale not on like sort of, not that many start-ups that have gone from 0 to where we are as quickly as we have, but usually start up's have to rewrite their code when they start hitting scale. We hit it very quickly. We were starting to hit crash rates we were starting to see especially on android some retention issues because the app wasn't loading, just real basic performance stuff. We have already reduced crash rates by 90%, started to see retention tick back up in those areas and really amazing that we're having the success we’re having even with what has been a pretty quality machine. And as we roll that off over the next few weeks both on Android and iOS, really sets the stage for what we expect to be very vigorous 2017 product roadmap. Looking at that part again, plan on doubling tech resources this year as well, we’ve got major updates planned, really across the board, profile, discovery, communication monetization. I think Tinder a year from now will certainly seem very different than it has in a number of exciting ways. So, very robust idea map and the resources behind it to bring it to fruition. Knowing the space that we do, there is no one else out there who is going to bring this much resources to this battle sort of bringing guns to one knife fight. We are going to continue to iterate on product drive innovation breaths and really excited about it. Also, we signed a deal with Facebook to provide us with access ad inventory, obviously our direct sales continue. We are on track in Q1 to more than triple our direct sales from Q1 last year, but as we roll in Facebook we’re going to be able to start providing inventory on top of that. Should be integrated in Q2 of 2017 and launched at that point as well and another important step in what I would call our non-urgent drive to build this advertising business. It has taken second place to the direct business with good reason, but we are slowly and steadily building it and we think it has real opportunity to contribute down the road. Moving to Slide 7, we talked last quarter a bit about the fact that we are looking to make some discretionary investments into momentum in Tinder, particularly rest of world. I think sometimes we forget how early Tinder really is in its life-cycle here and up until through last year, we had spent very little on international really anything. And in Q4, we started playing with throwing some money into countries like Brazil, India, Turkey etcetera in what I will call non-traditional marketing ways and seeing real lift. It’s not traditional marketing like you are buying this rag and you expect that rag to convert into this, but you have this ROI, it’s more of a trying to actually move up baseline create real viral growth, and we’ve seen some real success with that at very low spent numbers. Q1 of this year we're scaling that dramatically. We're going to learn a lot. I don't think we're looking at this like match, where we want to be as precise as we can on our ROI. I don't think that makes sense at Tinder right now, at the same time, we are going to look at it pretty closely and make sure that it at least seems to be making sense. That will take us a while to develop a fully fledged measurement system. We will be moving dollars from this channel to that channel and we may end up toggling it back a while, if it doesn't hold, but if it does, we think it will pay real dividends not in 2017, but in 2018, 2019 as we really entrench ourselves in some of these markets. I mean, we had a day last month where Brazil actually exceeded the U.S. in registrations. I mean that’s incredible. We are creating real momentum in some markets that while lower monetizing than western markets have huge populations and do monetize at a reasonably strong rate. So, we think it’s a really good investment if we can make it work and Gary will talk about that putting some margin compression on this year. We will know a lot more after Q1 about how much that’s going to be as the year goes through, but right now we are committed to doing this and learning about it. Switching to Slide 8, nothing you don't know, but I thought it was helpful to talk about 2017 in the context of 2016 for our non-tender brands, 2016 was as we said repeatedly really about bringing ourselves into mobile alignment, mobile parity if you will. We did work on native apps, we did work on our underlying technology, we did work on mobile web across the board, and as you can see here just a few examples of some of the gains that we got in doing so. And that was really the agenda for 2016. We talked a lot about driving up conversion, which we’ve continued to do and that’s only one of many measurements obviously, but one that we've talked about. So, we feel like we’ve got a really good job on that piece of it. If you go to Slide 9 in 2017, the plan here has been now about starting to widen the top of the funnel. I think as we look at what’s happened over this two or three-year push to bring Match, PlentyOfFish, OkCupid, Meetic into oh mobile world, I think one of the things that’s happened is the product has somewhat lost their differentiation and you are focused on making the user interface work in the mobile platform. You are focused on messaging. You are focused on all these things. Prior these four brands had 10 plus years to develop their own personality. I think some of that has been lost. I think in this world you need to have a differentiated concept in order to thrive and so one of our real focuses this year is recreating that differentiation product to product, putting our marketing behind that differentiation and that’s really our strategy to growing the top of the funnel. Slide 9 shows just a couple of examples. On Match, we just learned something called Missed Connections. Huge response for the people who are adopting it. We are also removing our focus on events. Events have continued, but they haven't really been a focus of marketing the way they have at Meetic for instance and Match, the whole theory of Match now is becoming more like meeting in the real world. You’ve got these location-based features, you’ve got the events. We’ve got two or three more big products releases over the course of the year, and we are going to organize our marketing efforts around those to really drive growth in this area. OkCupid, another example. OkCupid has always had an audience that’s a little more educated than the rest of our businesses. A little more eclectic, and yet if you look at the profile on the left here on this slide, you will see that all of that was lost in the mobile experience. The old desktop profile would have lots of information about somebody. The OkCupid profile became effectively one photo. We moved it to the right or we added more photos. We added the questions and answers scores back in that made OkCupid so unique. We added a bunch of information as you can see from the stats above, just on focusing on the individuality of our membership, we’ve really driven some, really great returns on that in terms of user behavior. So this is just a sampling of the strategy for 2017, it's differentiation of these businesses and putting our marketing and PR effort behind it, and we think that’s what is going to drive the increasing top of the funnel throughout 2017. And before I turn it over to Gary, I just wanted to hit on, obviously with some big news of the release, which is our impending sale of Princeton Review. Princeton Review is a business that I personally championed buying a few years ago. I think it’s a great business. The theory we had at the time is sort of the consumer Internet side of it would predominate and that we had great expertise in that. I think that that will prove to be the case. I think the stickiness of the existing off-line business surprises a bit. I think that as a result the dissimilarities versus the similarity balance was off versus what we thought. We continue to believe that it’s going to reach its destiny as a primarily digital one-stop business. We believe in it, but I think from a focus perspective, given what we think would be an increased timeline we thought it made more sense to move that into the hands of an educational player and for us to focus a little closer to home. So, we're glad we got that sale done. We got at a price we feel good about, and I think we are expecting to close sometime in the first half of the year, but we're really focused on dating going forward. Gary?
Gary Swidler:
Okay great. Thanks Greg. And to that point, the financial information that we present here in the slide, starting on Slide 11 relate only to our dating business. We expect to take a hard look at the end of the first quarter whether Princeton Review should be considered a discontinued operation, but with regards with that we are focused on focused on the dating business and we’re talking about our business now as the dating business only. So, I just want to make sure that that’s clear to everyone as we flip through the financial slides. If you go to Slide 11, for the fourth quarter we reported dating revenue of $295 million. If you exclude the impact that FX had on the quarter’s revenue, given the appreciation of U.S. dollars since the U.S. presidential election, we would have had $297 million of revenue or 23% year-over-year growth. Pro forma for POF, this was our seventh straight quarter of double-digit revenue growth on a year-over-year basis. Our revenue pro forma for POF grew 14%, you can see on the bottom Side 11, and operating income grew 33%. We also improved our EBITDA margin on a year-over-year basis again in Q4 as we’ve done every quarter in 2016; primarily due to the leverage we are getting from our lower marketing spend brands. And one other thing I just wanted to point out in our Q4 results, we had a $6.5 million fair value adjustment in the quarter related to an earnout on one of our smaller acquisitions. The earnouts can be quite sensitive to small changes in our forecast for the business. The adjustment does not relate to PlentyOfFish acquisitions, which does not have an earnout and I just point out these adjustments tend to be volatile quarter-to-quarter moving up and down, so you shouldn't read too much into those kinds of adjustments. If you flip over to Slide 12, just looking back on the entire year of 2016, both as we reported and on a pro forma basis for POF, we are very proud of the results that we put up in 2016 as Greg has said delivering on what we said at the time of our IPO. Our dating revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time and it grew 15% year-over-year pro forma for the POF acquisition and in fact we are north of 15% growth on all of our key metrics for the year of revenue, operating income, EBITDA, PMC when we factor in the POF acquisition. And then we achieved 36% operating, adjusted EBITDA margins for the year, which is very strong growth here on the margin performance. If you flip to Slide 13, the Slide we showed consistently it shows our ARPU and you can see now that we have lapped the one-year anniversary of the POF acquisition. ARPU has been steady throughout 2016. You can see that prior quarters had no peer down on a year-over-year basis largely due to the one-time impact of the POF PMC base coming into our ARPU calculation, but now that’s over, I think the numbers are much more clear. There was some Q4 pressure on international ARPU on a sequential basis from the impact of the U.S. dollar appreciation, but it is steady year-over-year as you can see on the chart on the right. We also have made a change to our calculation of ARPU. We’ve had at de minimis amount historically of nonsubscriber revenue in our ARPU numbers. We removed that now for our ARPU calculations and we’ve adjusted the prior periods as well for comparability. We started to have Boost a la carte revenue to nonsubscribers in Q4. It really started in the middle of Q4, it’s still a relatively small amount in Q4, but we think it will be larger going forward. And so to improve the disclosure we have now stripped that out of ARPU for all periods including the Q4 period. And then I would just mention that both FX impacts, as well as this change in ARPU definition shaved about $0.01 of our reported ARPU this quarter. So, we would be at $0.54 not $0.53 in aggregate had it not been for those impacts. If you flip over to Slide 14 on the outlook for Q1 and for 2017 as a whole, it’s important to emphasize as Greg mentioned that we believe our business has natural margin expansion. However, we're choosing to spend incrementally on Tinder marketing particularly in the rest of the world, and this spend has essentially kept our margin expectations flat for 2017, something what we telegraphed on the last earnings call, but that spend is likely costing us 1 to 2 points of margin expansion in full year 2017. On the third quarter earnings call, we also gave a very preliminary look at revenue for 2017 and we said that we thought it could grow 15% to 20%, that call took place right before, in fact the week before the U.S. presidential election and as I mentioned the dollar has strengthened significantly, especially against the euro and the yen, two critical currencies for us. And that has shaved about 1.5 points of our growth rate for 2017 over 2016. And so there is significant impact from FX in our outlook that we’ve factored in. It could be wrong and that’s just the best guess based on where FX rates are now, but there has been significant movement, which we’ve factored into our 2017 guidance, since the election and since our last call. It also affects of course our Q1 numbers, as well as the other quarters through the year. Other than that, our expectations for 2017 have not changed dramatically since that call. It is important to emphasize that when we made the outlook on the third quarter call we were in preliminary mode, we're still going through our financial plan. I think we’re quite clear about that. We have firmed it up since then and so we reflected all that in our guidance that’s on this page. It’s very much worth noting that we expect revenue momentum to build throughout 2017, as Tinder’s product momentum build and in North American businesses improve in their performance. We continue to believe that PMC will grow by more than 15% in 2017, largely driven by Tinder, POF and the international businesses, which are the same businesses that drove growth in 2016. The North American brands will contribute to PMC as we get later in this year. At Tinder, it is also important to emphasize that revenue growth is going to be driven both by PMC growth and a la carte revenue growth and we are focused on maximizing overall revenue at Tinder not specifically sub growth, and we expect to optimize pricing to maximize the total sub revenue and a la carte revenue in 2017. I also mentioned on the earlier slide on ARPU that it has been flat for a while now and we expect that to continue. We think it could be plus or minus $0.01 in 2017, excluding any sort of unforeseen additional FX impacts. At the bottom of Page 14, we also provide some additional assumptions for 2017. I think it’s worth pointing out that our CapEx is down about $13 million, compared to where it came in, in 2016 and our stock-based comp is up very marginally and equates to about 4% of revenue. If you flip to Slide 15, we’ve been saying that for a while now that we're going to use our cash to deliver, and at the end of Q4 we made good on that paying down about $40 million on our Term Loan B to bring in the balance from $390 million to $350 million. We ended with net leverage of 2.3 times. We also reprised the 350 that was remaining on our Term Loan B in very late 2016 shaving off about 125 basis points off of the coupon. So when you factor in the reprising plus the debt pay downs, we estimate over $6 million of savings from interest in 2017. Even with the voluntary debt payment that we made, we ended 2016 with $254 million of cash on hand, as you can see on the right side of the page that’s a number that’s building, been building significantly, since our IPO. On the side, we’ve actually broken out the domestic and the international cash given all those discussions about potential tax reform and repatriation. We thought it would be helpful for people to see where our cash sits. We also expect in 2017, a mid-50s EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rate. This means that if you take our [Audio Gap]
A - Greg Blatt :
[Audio Gap] in terms of the revenue side I think there is a dependence on marketing. I mean obviously some of our businesses have very little dependence on marketing. Tinder, even again, even with this sort of rest of world marketing spend surge it is not really going to make a different in 2017. OkCupid, PlentyOfFish those businesses are not terribly dependent on marketing. Match, Affinity, etcetera are dependent on marketing. It is also true as you state that in any given period the less marketing you - lowering your marketing is likely to help you EBITDA and not really hurt you revenue although it hurts your revenue down the road. So, our forecast is our best mix of our belief on a business by business basis, but what our marketing spend is going to be across the periods. It does move around from time to time as I think, you know you followed us for awhile, you know, things change and become more expensive. They become more expensive, they become more productive. All these things happen. This represents our best guess, I would say that Gary talked about sort of what’s changed from November 1, or whenever we gave our preliminary view to now, it simply built up business by business marketing plans quarter-to-quarter et cetera, you start looking at the logistics of when campaigns will launch and this is where it has come out. So it could move a little bit, but no more so than usual and we always have arranged to reflect that flexibility.
Unidentified Analyst :
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Peter Stabler of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open.
Peter Stabler:
Thanks very much. Good morning, a couple if I could. Greg, could you give us a little bit more color on your comments on the Affinity. Yes, we know that you mentioned that in Q3, just wondering give that some of these are, and most of these are hard paywall assets, what's your commitment to them? Are these strategically important, could you envision a scenario where you reduce the number of affinity brands? And then one for Gary, could you give us any more color on the PMC outlook now that we are past the pro forma issue with POF, 15% would you be willing to give us any sort of separation between Tinder and non-Tinder assets? Thanks so much.
Greg Blatt:
Okay. On affinity the notion of whether something strategic or not is a conversation that we’ve turned ourselves upside now down on many times. I think it’s strategic if it makes us money long term. If it doesn't make us money long term, it’s not strategic. I think that we have a host of brands in affinity, it doesn't cost us really an extra nickel to keep any of them incremental on. So, we spend marketing against each of them, especially on the long tail of them depending on pretty strict ROI look. So, I don't think about it that way. I think when you step back and you think about the affinity situation right now and its impact on PMC, I thought it might make sense to sort of go a little bit deeper on this. You know, all PMC are not created equal. For a given business there are some PMC that walks in the door very cheap, there is some PMC you have to spend money against at a good margin and then you sort of theoretically at least spend right up till up until marginal breakeven on a lifetime value basis. So, we saw it happening at the affinity. Affinity of our hard paywall brands has always been the lowest margin on our unit basis. And we had a pretty large number of subs that we were requiring what I would call close to breakeven marginal lifetime economics. So, assuming a world where we spent a dollar to obtain a sub and we thought that over the life time that we would make a $1.10 off of that sub, right. So, call that a 10% ROI. As we dug deeper and deeper, our math shifted and we thought instead of getting $1.10 for that dollar we were spending, we're probably getting closer to $0.95, which means rather than making $0.10 we are losing $0.05. And as we dug deep that was actually up pretty big trough. So, in the grand scheme of our profitability, cutting out that number didn't really make much of a difference, in fact in the near term it’s helpful, but it’s a big hit to PMC. So, to give some quantification, as we look ahead of our plan, the difference between where we were at the high point in 2016 and where we think we will be in 2017, you're talking about a run off of almost 100,000 PMC. Now in terms of profitability, it really doesn't mean much to us going forward instead of making that - instead of, thinking we're making $0.10 or in fact losing $0.05 we're just doing it as a wash. But in terms of aggregate PMC numbers that puts pressure on this number. And that’s what I talked about last quarter when I said that this sort of controlled run-off of affinity PMC is going to delay our return to year-over-year growth in North American PMC. It doesn't have much economic consequence, but when you look at that number that’s going to have a drag over both in Q4 and going forward. Just as a point of quantification, I think Q1 affinity marketing spend is down more than 30% over Q1 last year. So, we took that number down, that wasn't our original plan, it doesn't have that much economic consequence. This is what I would call the margin and spend on a profitability basis, but it does affect this particular metric.
Peter Stabler:
Gary you want to take the…
Gary Swidler:
On the PMC number, so we are seeing 15% plus for the year and what we have is a lot of confidence that we will be able to move PMC up at least 15%, but hard to say exactly how it is going to turn out for a variety of reasons. Tinder clearly has the possibility to achieve that on its own, but as I said in my remarks we’re toggling between a la carte revenue and sub growth for Tinder and we don't know yet how that’s all going to play out. So, I wouldn't read too much into it on the Tinder side, other than we got to figure out exactly how we want to monetize Tinder in 2017 with a few more variables than we had in 2016, but we expect Tinder to contribute strongly to the PMC growth. We expect POF to continue to contribute strongly to PMC growth international, especially Meetic and our Japanese business. So, the same business that have been contributing in 2016 we think will contribute. What’s going to happen as Greg just spoke about is, we won’t really see PMC growth from OkCupid from Match North America until very late in the year. So they won't contribute are a lot of PMC in 2017 to the PMC growth number and then you got this deduction, essentially from affinity as we reduce our spend on that business and bring it down. And so when you aggregate that altogether that’s how we get to the 15% plus and we will obviously update you as the year goes on and how that is …
Greg Blatt:
Yes, a little more color there, which is on, obviously we talked about affinity, talked about Tinder and POF, on Match and OkCupid they are sort of on the course they’ve been on, meaning we talked about Match, OkCupid, affinity together returning to year over-year PMC growth by the end of the first half of 2017. Affinity puts a cloud on that, but Match and OkCupid are still on their track. We expect them to return collectively to year-over-year PMC growth in Q3. And that’s sort of always been the case, I think you look at Match alone, I mean in the second half of 2016 first-time subs, which is the leading indicator was flat year-over-year for the first time and God knows how many quarters, I mean it has been a steady decline for a long time. Second half of 2016 flat over second half of 2015, we expect improvements in net ads every quarter in Match PMC throughout 2017. Same with OkCupid. OkCupid hit our low point year-over-year FTS in Q3, improved in Q4, we expect improvements in net ads and OkCupid every quarter in 2017, so while Gary is right that in the first of the year, OkCupid and Match have growth themselves. They do contribute to the overall growth number by having less of a drag on the number in 2017 than it did on 2016, meaning the extent to which it’s down year-over-year will be less in the first part of 2017 than it was in the first part of 2016, which also helps contribute, again turning positive in the second half of 2017. So, again I think if you go back I notice this has been a hot topic, if you go back all the way to the IPO you just look at North America PMC, I would say Tinder has done better than we expected, affinity we obviously have an issue that really isn’t that much of an economic issue, but certainly was on a PMC than we expected. And match and OkCupid are pretty much right on target. OkCupid experienced a little more weakness last year than we thought, but it’s also rebounding, I think pretty nicely as we roll out this new products basically. And so it’s all in, it’s sort of where we thought it would be, with just a couple of little toggles up and down.
Peter Stabler:
Very helpful, thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Douglas Anmuth of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thanks for taking the question. Can you just translate that conversation that we just had on PMCs into revenue a little bit more? And just thinking about the 2017 guide you are at 15% to 20% growth before and now at about 13% to 17%, I know Gary you called out the 1.5 percentage points of impact from FX. Is it fair to think that the rest there is all in the classic brands, if you could just clarify that or if there's something else? And then also can you just talk about your confidence in having flat EBITDA margins given the doubling of the Tinder tech headcount, marketing investments, how you see that playing out through the year? Thanks.
Gary Swidler:
So, as I said there is not really, it’s not right to look at the change from the 15% to 20% to where we are now and think that’s really North America weakness, particularly shining through. I think that as we firmed everything up, I think we’ve kind of refined our guidance a little bit may be there is a little bit of conservatism in it, but we don't see trends that have really changed our overall view on guidance. So, we attributed the best bulk of what’s changed the FX, not anything fundamental in the business and certainly not anything in the North American performance in particular.
Greg Blatt:
What was the other…
Douglas Anmuth :
What is the spend at Tinder on headcount and marketing
Greg Blatt:
You started to say translate the conversation, I thought you are going to say into English and I was concerned.
Douglas Anmuth :
That would be helpful.
Gary Swidler:
We did spend at Tinder on headcount and marketing.
Greg Blatt:
I think, we are expanding our marketing and I put marketing in quotations, I know you can’t see them just because compared to the other kinds of marketing that we do at our businesses we are increasing it dramatically. I mean the business like Tinder you wouldn't normally expect it to even increase at the rate of revenue growth. You would expect to ultimately get leverage in it, unless you think back to the fact that we are still really in the early stages of this business and we really want to see if we can accelerate our moment in some of these places we're going really well. But that’s a big slog of it. I think even with that and look, I don't know how much we are ultimately going to spend on it. I really don't. We had really good success at small levels of spend. We’re going to increase that spend dramatically and we’re going to know a lot more by the end of this quarter. But I feel pretty confident that, we gave a range for EBITDA and a range for revenue, and obviously your margin swings a lot depending on sort of, where you end up in both those ranges, but we feel pretty good about those ranges. If that makes any sense?
Gary Swidler:
We try to lay out the maximum amount of spend at Tinder on the marketing and so that’s how we get to the flat EBITDA margin. But obviously if we don't see it being effective or we can't spend all that effectively we will pull that back and it will change the margin characteristics for the year, but I think the flat margin and corporate pretty heavy load of spend on the Tinder marketing. So, I think we have confidence that’s sort of the max that we would spend on there.
Douglas Anmuth:
Okay. If I could just follow with one - just on a one-time basis, maybe just because we're kind of kicking of the year, is there any color you can give on total dating MAUs, DAUs, just to help us level set around the business and the brands?
Greg Blatt:
I actually don't even have the number in front of me. I think if you ex out Tinder, I think as we said before last year was a, not so much a big top of the funnel growth year. So, I think that excluding Tinder and their use are probably flattish to up a little bit overall. I think the revenue growth continues to be solid. It is obviously growing less than revenue and less than PMC as you would expect, but it’s growing well again. Nice strong double-digit growth, stronger in rest of world than in Europe in the U.S. but continuing to grow in all three sort of sectors. I think the one piece of color I just want to lay and not because it really implicates our results as much it’s interesting, Q4 and even in the beginning of Q1 have been a little weird. The election actually had a pretty profound impact on, I think viewing habits, we saw 20% decline in registrations. When the election hit and if you actually look at the map, we've actually seen increases in registrations and activity in states where Trump won and decreases in registrations and activity in states where Trump didn't win, and that’s obviously been eradicating, but it has definitely caused a little bit of a funk in terms of, in a way you would have never seen before. I mean, and again that’s dissipating, but it is just really interesting to watch, does it really have any real implications for our business in any long-term sense, but it was a weirdness that we’ve never seen before.
Douglas Anmuth:
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from John Blackledge of Cowen and Company. Your line is now open.
John Blackledge :
Great. Thanks for the questions. So Greg you transitioned to CEO of Tinder in December could you just discuss the rationale for the move and perhaps like the bigger strategic initiatives you're thinking about for Tinder in 2017 and going forward? And then secondly, just a follow-up on the sub question, with Match North America and OkCupid returning to kind of PMC growth in the back half of 2017, how should we think about longer term core Match North America sub growth starting in 2018 and going forward, do we get back to kind of mid single-digit, high single-digits sub growth in 2018 and going forward? Thank you.
Greg Blatt:
You're welcome. I think the Tine move, Sean and I have been working together relatively closely for a while. I think that tinder had clearly gotten to a point where it needed a different expertise and breadth of management. I think obviously like any start-up, we wrestled with the right way to do that for a while. We made a change in CEOs, a couple of years ago, that didn't really work out. Sean sort of stepped back in the CEO role with me as sort of a Chairman being there to help. I think as we evolved that I think that, and it became clear that we were, despite our great growth I think we were leaving lots of opportunity on the table just through a lack of organizational expertise, discipline except that you wouldn't expect to have in a CEO of that level of experience. We talked about bringing in a COO; we talked about bringing a CEO; et cetera from just a overall dynamic stage our view was strategically things are going very well. We didn't want to bring up and do a big fake up that wasn't what we were really looking for, obviously Tinder is where a lot of for growth is, it’s where I thought that I could make the biggest impact at least in the near term. So, that’s what I’m doing. I think I’m the right CEO for Tinder right now. That may not be always the case. I think we are bringing the level of discipline to, especially the product side that we haven't really had before. And I think that especially if you keep doubling resources every year, you need that. I think, we have an incredible idea funnel, I don't think that’s at any shortage. I think the art of bringing analytics to it of bringing discipline processes to it, is something that hopefully I can affect, I expect our productivity to increase meaningfully on the product side over the course of this year and that’s really what this business is all about at the end of the dark, meaning spending money in India and Brazil and everything else is smart and good and can accelerate growth, but at the end of the day it is about the product experience. We continue to have such a leadership position globally across all the competition and not to sort put everything into it both from a personal perspective and a financial perspective just doesn't make any sense. So that's what’s drove it and I think things are going really well. In terms of, sorry what was the other question Gary?
Gary Swidler:
[Indiscernible] long term growth.
Greg Blatt:
I think we had always said, a way to think about it is, we haven’t, I mean Gary talked about how too much can move your 2017 plan, never mind 12 months can change our 2018 outlook. So take this with a great result, but the plan was always, the outlook was always that by second half of 2017 we would start to see North American sub growth again, as you got into 2018 we would start to approach that mid-single digit growth rate and that beyond we thought we could be at that mid-to high single digit growth rate. I think it’s fair to think about all that is sort of slipping six months, so we are now going to hit that growth in 2017 in the back half instead of the front half, maybe that means we get to 3% PMC growth in 2018 instead of 5%. I don't really know. I think that it’s going to increase meaningfully and I don't think it changes any of the outlook that we've had. POF International again continues to be ahead of that. So if you ex out Tinder I think that mid-single digit PMC growth rate is probably right. You’re probably still going to be a little positive or little bit less in North America, at least in the three brands we talked about, OkCupid, Match and Affinity, but overall when you take all the non-Tinder brands, I think that’s probably right and I think it’s the North American coming to a line item that we could start to push you up into that higher single digit range.
John Blackledge:
That's great. If I could just have one follow-up, you didn't call Tinder advertising out of the driver, you called PMC growth and a la carte, but with direct advertising revenue tripling in 1Q just trying to figure out how you look at ad load. In 2016 was it 1 of 100 swipes were an ad and where is that going, is it 1 1/2 or 2 out of 100 swipes in 2017 will be in ad, when you factor in Facebook and ramping up direct sales? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
So, I think look it’s tripling in Q1, but it’s still up relatively small number, I think what we said last quarter, I think it’s so generally true is we expect indirect revenue percentage of revenue to be somewhat consistent. Maybe we could do better, I don't know, but I’m not sure what is in the plan. I think in our current state of the direct sales business, the app load and frequency is not an issue, we haven't focused on it at all. I think one of the first think we're going to do when we plug in Facebook is start to test frequency because then suddenly we can turn on as much volume as we want and I think that by the end of Q2, I’m going to be able to answer that question with some precision. Right now it’s literally all guesswork. I mean it’s not a relevant number right now. The inventory level is so small, but Facebook gives us the ability to hit any ad load we want and I think Q2 we are going to spend a fair amount of time testing that to try and find what our optimal level is.
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Greg Blatt:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Chris Merwin of Barclays. Your line is now open.
Chris Merwin:
Alright thank you. I just had a couple. You talked at the Facebook partnership for Tinder a bit, but is there an opportunity to extend that partnership to the rest of your brand? And how are you thinking integrating ads more generally in a way that's additive to revenue and doesn't impact engagement? And then secondly on Tinder as you start to push a la cart a bit more, do you anticipate any increase in churn if users are able to use some of these features without having to sign up for a subscription? And in that case, does it make sense to start reporting a la carte separately? Thank you.
Greg Blatt:
Sure. On the Facebook question, the Facebook is an in app advertisement product. Outside of Tinder our app businesses, again mobile web tends to be a lot bigger, which again is one of the reasons we are excited about adding mobile web to our Tinder product in Q2, but I think that right now our app products don't have a lot of advertising in it. They also don't have a ton of volume. I think it is absolutely possible that Facebook could become a solution for that, but I don't think of that as a real big certainly 2017 mover, but the ad business overall is, we are building it again, I said it in a non-urgent way. I think, we just spent in the non-Tinder business a year optimizing our products, our mobile products for our direct business. Now we have to start working in the advertising piece too again as a second priority. So, I think that sort of an 2018, 2019 type issue. In terms of the impact of a la carte on subscription, I just go back to what Gary said, which is we're going to optimize for revenue, it is absolutely right that if you go heavier on a al carte there will likely be some cost paid on the PMC side, whether that comes in churn or that comes in conversion, when it comes, whenever it will come you do it, if it was a net positive and if the net positive was such that it really drove materiality in some numbers that we don't currently disclose we'd absolutely think about making some additional disclosure. Right now, I don't think it’s really necessary.
Gary Swidler:
Yes, it was a relatively small number in this quarter since we just rolled it out, but obviously we will look at it going forward and see if it makes sense, we will consider disclosing it.
Chris Merwin:
Alright, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Lloyd Walmsley of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Lloyd Walmsley :
Thanks guys. A couple if I can, it sounds like you are pretty excited of the ROW opportunity for Tinder and some of the marketing experiments you've been running, can you just kind of talk about the competitive environment in some of these bigger markets, like is it pretty open or are there local components you're going up against? And secondly on the Tinder log and web app, are there any markets where you've rolled that on a test basis that give you any indication of how much low hanging fruit there might be? Or is that rollout just happened all at once across geos, how should we think about that rollout and any tests you may have run?
Greg Blatt:
Sure I think, I guess in markets like let's take India, there is some competition, but it’s effectively an un-penetrated market and there you are fighting not so much competition, but culture, right. So what stands between Tinder and sort of great India penetration isn’t three competitors, it is getting the Indian culture comfortable with a dating app, and how it works, and everything else. And Turkey is similar to that. Brazil is a country with a bigger history of those, but nothing dominates the way that Tinder does. I would say that we’ve had a hard paywall business in Brazil for a long time. Tinder sort of cut through that, it appeals to different group. I think as regards to the classic Tinder demo, I don't think competition is really the issue in these places. It’s more just cultural advancement. We haven't tested yet. We obviously, by analogy we made some assumptions about the kind of impact these products could have as we set out to build them. They are pretty intensive projects, I mean they are, most things we do at Tinder aren't multi-month large team projects these are because they are so fundamental. I think when they are ready we will launch them in certain markets in test, not so much to see their impact because at that point we're fully baked, but to make sure they work and to fine tune and all that sort of thing. So, I think that’s all going to start happening in Q2. We expect both to start testing and to roll-out completely these products within the span of Q2.
Lloyd Walmsley :
Okay. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Eric Sheridan of UBS. Your line is now open.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks for taking the question, maybe two if I can. One, on Tinder as we continue to see strong subscriber growth and obviously the monetization comes through, what are you seeing in terms of engagement with the platform as you layer monetization on top of it? So if we were to look at an older cohort of Tinder users, any color you could give us about either improvements or flat in terms of the engagement trends broadly and towards the older cohorts? And question two, I don't know if we touched upon it early in the call, but on the affinity disclosure with respect to lower subs and lower marketing spend as you sort of sort through that business, is there any way to quantify the impact that are on a sub basis or a marketing basis for Q4? Thanks so much.
Greg Blatt:
Sure. On the engagement - there are a number of ways to look at your question, Tinder plus users, the subscribers tend to be the most engaged customers obviously, so they are on the product the longest et cetera. That's good for the product. Some of the features actually enable greater engagement than the non-Tinder plot has. On an aggregate basis DAU/MAU has been pretty constant for years. I think probably from the first six or nine months on there was a decline meaning that early group was incredibly engaged, but for the last two and a 2.5, 3 years DAU/MAU has been generally pretty consistent. Certainly within geographies it’s been very consistent. In terms of the affinity, Gary if you understood exactly, I’d answer, why don't you…
Gary Swidler:
I think on affinity, we're talking about reducing marketing spend in every dollars into the double-digit, north of $10 million. And so that’s real bottom line impact to us.
Greg Blatt:
And so it also takes down the PMC number, right. But we are hopeful that we can reallocate some of that spend in a positive way over the course of the year. So in this business, I know it’s been frustrating, but a lot moves throughout the year, you are making marketing, you don't set our marketing plan on day one and then execute it, you are buying literally every day, you are buying TV every week, you are buying Facebook and mobile platform every week, we set a range, we're pretty confident we will end up in that range, within that range the composition will change 15 times and we will update you every quarter, but that is our current sort of outlook on it as we build it for the year.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Dan Salmon of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Dan Salmon :
Hey guys good morning, one for each of you. Greg, as you look out, I know it's very early in the marketing spending that you are investing in the rest of world for Tinder just yet and I assume usage PMC growth, those are the early things thinking of users and growing the number of people using it. But when you look at sort of early monetization are there any sort of early insights to take? One assumes that sort of emerging markets typically monetize at lower rates than Western markets, but just interested if you're seeing any early dynamics there on monetization? And then for Gary, could you just get a little deeper into the CapEx and the reduction there and how you look at it on a bit more of a run rate basis? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
On the rest of world marketing stuff, I think we’re not trying to buy a registrations or users, we are trying to sort of move the baseline, right. We’re trying to create viral coefficients that, you always have a baseline and you have sort of the direct impact of marketing, we're trying to move the base baseline, which is then when you start marketing, you’ve actually moved the entire sort of, you’ve widened the top of the funnel permanently. It takes a little while to evaluate whether or not you have successfully done that are not, but it doesn't really impact monetization. I mean clearly to the extent you create a more dynamic community, and over time you have a better user experience, which should lead more people to monetize, but right now we’re very focused on simply expanding that top of the funnel on a baseline basis. I think, ROW is obviously not monolithic, so India, Brazil, Turkey they are all different. I think it’s safe to say that ROW monetizes meaningfully lower than Europe, and the United States. Same time it’s also on a user basis a huge portion of our business and in aggregate revenue, the aggregate revenue from that piece is not at all insignificant. It’s less than half, but it’s more than 20%. It’s a meaningful number, and hopefully growing. So we're going to be patient on this, we want to see that rise in the top of the funnel, we're not really looking at the monetization piece as a measure of whether or not this market marketing is successful at this point in time.
Gary Swidler:
On the CapEx question Dan, we had outsized CapEx in 2016 as Tinder expanded its office facilities pretty significantly, we did a headquarters move of our Dallas office and then we also had a big expense moving a data centre from Virginia to Texas, which was a one-time event. So, it was inflated in 2016, I think you should look at 2017 and what we're forecasting for 2017 is more appropriate on a run rate basis.
Dan Salmon:
Great, that's very helpful. Thank you to both.
Greg Blatt:
One more question.
Operator:
Thank you. And your last question will come from Victor Anthony of Aegis Capital. Your line is now open.
Victor Anthony:
Thanks. Maybe two questions. In the past you've talked about re-subscription conversion as well as older cohort conversion as an opportunities, so maybe you could talk to that and what your expectations are for 2017? And on capital allocation, you call it M&A as you have any past, so maybe you could talk to what's missing from the portfolio, maybe you could go outside of core data platform? I’m not sure. Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
It is a great question on the older cohort conversion, as you heard me answer earlier, you can get really deep on this stuff. I talked about FTS or first time subs, really turning in Match and OkCupid and that’s the leading indicator. That is driven by a, the number of rigs coming in, and you're early conversion, which is a metric that we’ve been focused on. I think we are starting to see improvements, certainly in resub, we are starting to see some leveling off in the older cohort, so all that is turning positively, and we expect that to contribute to this growth or this return to growth over the course of 2017. So yes it is significant, a significant impact and we're seeing improvements there. In terms of the M&A, look I think there is always geography, right. There are a geographies where there are interesting things that we could buy. There are always new products, I mean something becomes strategic by virtue of being a good product that has an interesting twist that appeals to people. And we see something we say, we could take this and we could do more with it than they can. So that’s the kind of thing that pops up. You talked about going outside of dating, I think it’s possible to go outside of dating. I think it will be much closer to dating, whatever we would do then Princeton Review was, you would have to really leverage either be a matching app or a people discovery app may be for something other than dating, some sort of social engagement, it will be pretty close to what we are doing. I think at least in the near term and obviously if something like that happens we will tell you all about it, but right now as always we are opportunistic in M&A, we don’t really forecast what we will do, but it’s been, it has probably been our longest scratch without an acquisition in seven years. Obviously, we're pretty focused on being a newly public company and making sure that we hit our agenda, I think looking back Gary and I were talking about the road show 13, 14 months ago. And overall I think we pretty much did what we said we were going to do. Again there were a couple of things that were a little better, couple of things that were a little worse, but overall I think we are pretty much on track, we feel good about that. Now we're pretty much focused on the New England Patriots revenge tour, we're off to Houston. Tom Brady getting number five, go Patriots and we will see you guys and talk to you guys next quarter. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes today's program. You may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.
Executives:
Lance Barton - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Greg Blatt - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Gary Swidler - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Brandon Ross - BTIG Eric Sheridan - UBS John Blackledge - Cowen and Company Heath Terry - Goldman Sachs Dan Salmon - BMO Capital Markets Douglas Anmuth - JPMorgan Ross Sandler - Deutsche Bank Christopher Merwin - Barclays Capital
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Match Group Report’s Q3 2016 Results Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Match Group earnings call for the third quarter of 2016. On the call we have Greg Blatt, our Chairman and CEO; and Gary Swidler, our CFO. They’re both going to walk you through the Q3 Investor Presentation that we have posted to the Investor Relations section of our website and then we’ll open it up for questions. Before we begin, I’d like to remind you that during this call we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements typically may be proceeded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that behind us, I’ll now turn over the call to Greg.
Greg Blatt:
Thanks, Lance. Hi, everybody. Good to be here reporting our fourth quarter as a standalone public company. All things considered, it’s generally gone according to plan. Tinder has got great momentum. Our previously desktop businesses are completing their transitions to mobile-first businesses and coming through the drag that transition is created and our outlook is strong. We’re going to flip slides now from our presentation. We’ll try to add color, we’re helpful, but won’t spend time reciting what’s clearly on the page, so we can get to Q&A as quickly as possible. Starting with Slide 4, obviously another strong quarter on PMC growth across the Board, although international continues to outpace domestic really for two reasons. One, Tinder is just a larger percentage of our international PMC than that it is of our domestic PMC and Tinder is obviously our fastest growing business, so that accelerates the relative growth rate. And even excluding Tinder, the international business continue to grow more quickly. Turning to Slide 5, Tinder continues to just do great. Outperforming on PMC growth, I think, at the beginning of the year, we talked about goal of doubling PMC by the end of the year that would get us to $1.6 million. Obviously, we ended Q3 at over $1.5 million. So we’ll easily beat that beginning of the year target, frankly, if we haven’t beaten it already. I think Q3 was a record for net ads, really a couple of things going on there. One is, just continued strong performance in general. But there’s also a – if you remember, at the end of Q2, we sort of launched a new Tinder Plus sort of feature is that merchandising, et cetera, which created a real conversion lift. I want you to remember, there’s a – always a stock in flow effect when you do that. So there’s an initial sort of surge in conversion then typically settles down higher than it was before the new features were launched, but lower than it sort of post-launch peak. So I think when you look at that and you combine it with the fact that Q4 is our seasonally soft in the dating business season. I think looking head, you sort of look at Q4 more in line with sort of a Q1, Q2 sort of net ads than the Q3 one. I think here you’ll see we’re giving you both ending PMC and average PMC. As you know, in general, our metric is average PMC due to sort of the early stage of Tinder we’ve been providing ending PMC. I think in a couple of quarters who want to transition just back over to average PMC to keep things simple. But we wanted to give you both for a couple of quarters just so that you could see them side by side. Flipping to Slide 6, I want to talk a little bit about our product strategy at Tinder. It is growing rapidly. It’s very robust. This is a product business. As we’ve expanded this year, both in the senior level and across the board, our ambitions, our ideas, and our throughput have all increased substantially. And I think that our product strategy is all about growth, and I just wanted to talk about a number of the different fronts that we’re attacking it on. In the first bucket, which I’ve called under the hood, these are all things that consumers don’t really see or notice so much, but they’re incredibly important. Obviously, security integrity spam things like that are important. But when we think about just speed and reliability, the fact is that, in many geographies our app doesn’t perform very well. People get knocked out of the funnel. It’s slow to react. We’re putting real resources against fixing that. I think when you look historically at companies like Twitter, Facebook, Google, as they’ve sort of focused on speed and reliability, especially internationally, it’s driven real growth. So we think this is a real driver for us over the next couple of quarters. The next bucket widening the top of the funnel. Again, these are things that may not seem that sexy, but we think have real growth potential. The first is an alternative sign up. Right now you need to have a Facebook account in order to log into – in order to create a Tinder account. That’s generally fine in the U.S. But lot of international territories with that sort of a big hindrance places like Russia, Japan, we’re starting to get real traction. Facebook doesn’t have a lot of adoption. So we’re just not available to a huge number of people. Even in the U.S. and sort of other developing countries, there are lot of people who just don’t like sinking up a dating product, or frankly a number of products with their Facebook account. And so, we think again, that this will provide sort of real growth opportunity over the next coming quarters. Next, we’re watching a web application. Right now, all we have is, you have to have a native iOS or native Android approximately, that’s the only way you can access our services. When you look at Match Group’s other products, the vast majority of even their mobile usage happens on the web. Now, we recognize that the demos are different and we don’t expect that same ratio to hold. But our Tinder.com URL gets over 5 million uniques a month. And right now we basically just have a message that says, go download an app. And we are creating a fully functional web version of Tinder, both for desktop or really for mobile. And again, we think this has the opportunity to really expand our user base, not sexy, but I think just numerically going to be very significant. Product experience, which really is where most of the energy and sort of – or a lot of the energy and creative thought is huge roadmap here. Obviously, this stuff tends to be competitive. So we’re not going to go into much detail about it. But Tinder Social, which we launched a quarter ago, we’re going to have some new iterations and evolutions of that coming out in the very near future. We’ve got lots of other, what I would call, sort of use case expanding concept in development that will come out over the next quarters. And obviously, we’ll continue to do, what I’ll call, bread and butter experience and enrichment like we did with our Tinder Anthem feature, which is powered by Spotify and recent photo optimizer feature. So those sorts of things will continue to come indefinitely. Finally, obviously, we spent a lot of time and energy on monetization. We just launched our boost feature a la carte a few weeks late. We hope to get it out beginning of October, still not fully rolled out globally, although, it’s close to their or sort of doing a staggered rollout. Really great early returns, we think going to be a significant contributor and returning our attention to the advertising side. We’ve been talking for a while about our struggles to get the resources necessary due to tech work we need to grow that advertising business. We’re making real progress there. We moved off LiveRail, which was the Facebook tech platform we had before. We successfully transitioned over to Google and we’re empowering our data management partnership and whole bunch of other things, but there’s still a lot of work to do in order to get the ad business where we wanted to be. So just a sense of what I think is an unparalleled breadth and scope and variety of work being done. As we continue to add tech and product resources, we really do some things that, this is the ultimate competitive differentiator. We don’t think anyone will sort of keep up with us in terms of the rapidity and velocity of products innovation and evolution, where we couldn’t be happier with where we are right now. Flipping to the next slide, we’ve talked a lot over the last year-and-a-half about the transition to mobile on our previously desktop businesses and the downward pressure on conversion that that had and the impact that had over the business. We’ve also talked a lot about the fact that, over the course of last year that we really see the mobile migration slowing. And that plus the combination of our having reorganizing ways to free up more tech and product resources to work on mobile should combine to start turning that conversion story around. I think this chart very much shows what we’ve been up against. Conversion is a fuzzy metric. A lot of things can impact it, traffic sources, brand mix, device mix, sometimes you actually do product things that drive conversion down, but are good when you increase traffic to registration ratios, et cetera. So we’ll track it quarter-to-quarter in a sort of mark-to-market way. But I think, if we step back and you look at it over a long period of time, you can clearly see that, there’s a big downward pressure here, a major headwind, which is now mostly behind us. I think, this chart shows 30-day conversion, which is basically the ratio of registration that converts to a subscriber within the first 30 days. That’s a big part of our business. There are a lot of other parts of conversion as well. There’s re-subscription conversion. There’s an older co-work conversion, meaning later than 30 days. They’re not all at the same place. We sort of focused on this one first. So this is where we’ve made the most progress. But the rest are tracking along. And I think that, it feels good to over the last couple of years be saying this is what was happening and this is what would happen. And I think, it’s clearly been borne out and we’re making really good progress here and we expect this to be the big leveling off in the downward pressure that we’ve had in these businesses over the last couple years. I think is ending, as we said, it would over the course of 2017, and we’re excited about sort of that return to growth that that we see coming. Flipping to Page 8, we’re in portfolio business. Many of you are in portfolio businesses. And if you know, it’s rare that everything goes well. I thought it made sense sort of a year into being public to sort of take stock of what’s gone sort of the way we hoped or better and what happened. We’ll start with the underperformance. I think, Match Affinity, which is the – which is our collection of demographically-based businesses. Our time which is for sort of the 50 plus group definitely our biggest most successful business in that area, as we’ve been saying now for a couple quarters, they’ve been something of a downward drag on it. It’s a great business. It’s older demo makes it especially defensible sort of immune to competition a little slower on the transition to mobile than the other businesses, because they were really excited about the fact, we’re launching a brand new TV campaign in the coming days. But as we’ve dug in, we’ve seen that we’ve definitely in certain marketing channels been over-calculating LTVs, lifetime values, and that sort of effectively for the last year or so overspending to some extent on marketing. We’re now going to pull that back a little bit, which should ease down PMC over the next few quarters after which we should be able to start building again. So there’s going to be a natural sort of downward pressure on that business over the next couple of quarters just as we pull back marketing on a lifetime basis, whether it’s profitable as we thought it was. But again, long-term very strong business. OkCupid talked about a lot. It’s a great business. There has been a lot of management change there over the last year. A lot of self-inflicted wounds. We brought in great new leadership earlier this year and we’re very confident that we’re on the right track. But definitely it was a knockout of our 2016 expectations. And finally, advertising. We’ve talked about this a lot. I think we changed the leadership midway through the – this period or sort of earlier this year. And I think in doing so, we came to grips with some things we hadn’t fully understood. I think on the non-Tinder side of the business, I think we underestimated the downward pressure on ad impressions that the transition to mobile would bring. As we’ve optimized our product for mobile, conversion comes first and that has taken a toll on ad inventory. And I think that we didn’t fully sort of take that into account. I also think that we underestimated the industry wide shift away from what that the speed of the industry-wide shift away from premium direct mail advertising. I mean, that was a big part of the growth plan for that non-Tinder businesses. So I think we’ve definitely seen some pressure there. I think on the Tinder business, it’s the same story, which has just been a question of getting the resources necessary to drive this. And the lesson is, when you’re a very small part of the revenue system and everything is sort of optimized around something else. It’s just hard to get the resources that you need and that that’s where we are right now, and we’re getting them. We’re creating dedicated teams. As I said, we were halfway there now. We’ve made a lot of progress on the advertising side on Tinder. But I think we’re definitely not where we thought we’d be. And I think it’s fair to say that we’ll be a little slower there next year than we expected as well. I think when we look ahead, we expect meaningful increase in ad revenue, but we don’t really expect it to increase materially as a percentage of our overall revenue, and think that’s a little bit slower in coming. Hopefully, there’s some upside there. But after a year of sort of not being able to get it done as quickly as we want, we’re tamping that down. On the other side of things, which is obviously, where we spend a lot of our time, it’s great. Tinder is a rocketship. We’ve talked about that a lot and I’m sure we’ll talk about it more in this call. Match is doing a phenomenal job really has gone to a mobile-first sort of business. I think that the mobile products are not all the way there yet are certainly ahead of where we thought they’d be and are doing great pressure launching a new TV campaign there over the next couple days and have an incredibly exciting product strategy for next year. Meetic hitting all cylinders all-time high and PMC should have a record year next year, really doing great across the Board. PlentyOfFish and Pairs to 2015 acquisitions absolutely meeting or exceeding our acquisition plans, contributing real growth, have great acquisitions and will continue to be great growth drivers next year as well and continues to do its job as a solid EBITDA contributor. So overall, I think a bunch of performing businesses that are doing as well or better than expected a few drags. I think overall, we definitely met our marks that we set for ourselves at the beginning of the year and are very well set up for 2017. So with that, I’ll turn it over to Gary, who will talk about a number of things including 2017 and then we’ll get to Q&A.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, Greg. If you turn over to Slide 10, on the left hand side, you can see dating revenue grew year-over-year at 22%, which was ahead of the range we expected on our Q2 call. Tinder, PlentyOfFish and our International business has performed better than we had expected. Princeton Review saw an unexpected revenue drop. Normally there’s a jump in SAT takers in the summer, while the kids are off from school, they prepare for the test in the fall once they return to school. We didn’t see that jump this summer. This is a lingering impact that we’ve been talking about all year that’s been felt industry-wide after the ones in a decade changing the SAT test earlier, although, we’ve finally begun to see some of the test takers come back very, very recently. Princeton Review’s revenue mix continues to shift consistent with our plans. It’s online revenue was up 17% in the quarter, while the lower margin, but the larger offline revenue piece did fall by a similar amount, and that’s what caused the overall revenue drop. We continue to stay focused primarily on Princeton Review’s EBITDA, which turned positive in the quarter, as we expected, and was up 55% from last Q3. Overall, operating income grew 57% and adjusted EBITDA grew 34% to $111 million, that’s also ahead of what we expected on our last earnings call. Strength in Tinder, PlentyOfFish and our International businesses and lower than expected marketing spend drove those results. Our adjusted EBITDA margin improved strongly year-over-year as has been the case all year long. It reached 35% overall and 37% in dating. The margin improvement is largely driven by the fact that by the fact that a larger percent of our revenues were derived from brands with lower marketing spend. That’s something we’ve been talking about all year. Operating expense declined in the quarter by 7 points, as a percent of revenue, and sales and marketing expense declined by 4 points. If you go over to the next Slide 11, this is the pro forma for PlentyOfFish. We are going to include this slide one more time after this quarter and then we’re going to get to the anniversary through the acquisition which happened in Q4 last year. So we won’t need to go through the pro forma result any more after the next quarter. But it is in here for completeness and, as you know, how we look at the business. If you go over to Slide 12, on ARPPU, there has been a great story for us this year. But you can see on the left hand side, we’ve seen real stability in ARPPU all through the year. It does move around a bit in a narrow range. It moved a little bit between Q2 and Q3. But what you can see in Q3 is basically at or above the level it was at in Q4 of 2015. So great story with very stable ARPPU. We do expect a decline in ARPPU in 2016 compared to last year after we acquired PlentyOfFish and because of the tremendous growth we’re seeing from Tinder, both of which are adding a lot of PMCat lower rates than our other businesses. And what we anticipate that pressure on ARPPUs through 2016 has been much less pressure than we did expect. A lot of this has been because of the a la carte revenue, which we’re driving, which is really muted the mix shift driven ARPPU declines in 2016. We think that overall ARPPU could – will continue to vary quarter-to-quarter. It could still decline a little bit. But as we take an initial look at 2017, and we’ll talk about this more, because we take an initial look at 2017, we see a fairly stable ARPPU for next year as well. If you go over to Slide 13, is a slide, we’re putting in regularly. We think the company has tremendous cash flow generating characteristics. We have low CapEx. We’re expecting mid-50s free cash flow conversion in 2016, which we’ve talked about, and yes, we still trade that kind of mid to high 4% cash flow yield. So we think that’s still very attractive cash flow yield. And when you combine that with our growth characteristics on revenue and EBITDA, we think there’s few other companies that match up to those very critical metrics. On the right-hand side of the chart 6 – 13, you can see that we now have $231 million of cash on hand at the end of the third quarter. Our leverage continues to come down and we think there are some things we can do in the debt markets now, given the run up and strengthen in debt markets and the strength of our company that could drive our debt cost down fairly meaningfully over the next little while. If you go over to Slide 14, on the financial outlook, I’ll spend a little bit more time here. I think first thing is now that we’re in the fourth quarter, it’s worth noting that our full-year dating revenue expectation has been very consistent from the fourth quarter of last year into the first quarter of this year. We put in a range that was roughly $1.1 billion to $1.14 billion. We still believe, we’re going to be near the midpoint of that range. So we’ve had very good predictability on our dating revenue all through this year. What it will boil down to is low 20% revenue growth, mid-teens for PlentyOfFish, pro forma for PlentyOfFish, and that’s all despite a little bit more weakness than we expected from OkCupid and Affinity and our ad business ramping a bit slower than we expected. Tinder has obviously really exceeded expectation, as Greg talked about, and Pop has done well, our international business has done well. And so these have offset some of the soft spots that we’ve seen elsewhere in the portfolio. In terms of dating adjusted EBITDA for 2016, we’re coming in at a $400 million to $405 million range. That’s in line with what we communicated in our last earnings call. When we laid out the outlook there, which we had for Q3 and Q4, we have sequential revenue growth ranges for those two quarters. And we also had a range of EBITDA margin expectations. If you work through all that math, you end up with a range of $401 million to $406 million, and we’re basically saying, we’re $400 million to $405 million So essentially very close to the range that we had, if you do had very precise math from the last call. If you look at Q4, specifically, we expect dating revenue to be in the middle of the range of $292 million to $301 million that you get if you work through all the math from the numbers in our last quarter slides. The key drivers of that our Tinder Boost, which as Greg said, is being rolled out right now to both subscribers and non-subscribers at Tinder. We had originally planned to roll that a little early in the quarter. So we thought we get a little more of a pickup than we’re going to get, but it was even though got little delayed. We’re goingto still get nice contribution from the Tinder Boost feature in the fourth quarter, but it’s not quite going to be as beneficial as we expected. PlentyOfFish also contributed strongly and should contribute strongly in the fourth quarter. So when you combine the Boost impact and PlentyOfFish performance strongly, this will help offset our lower ad revenue and the impact of some slightly lower marketing spend that we had in Q3 that will fill the effect of that in Q4. In terms of dating adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, we expected the margins are going to come in just slightly below the mid-40s range that we expected at the Q2 call. This is caused by a bit more continuing investment in Tinder than we had anticipated at that point and also the ad revenue is being offset by the Tinder direct monetization that comes with IFPs [ph] it’s a little bit lower margin revenue, we’ve talked about that previously as well. But we’re seeing a little bit of that impact in the fourth quarter and plus we did have this marketing spend shift from Q3 to Q4. So overall, the second-half of Q – the second-half of the year from an EBITDA perspective is going to be right where we expected. But we did have a little bit higher than we expected EBITDA in Q3. We’re going to see that impact offset in Q4. The other thing just to point out on slide, The Princeton Review. We expect to continue to be slightly profitable in Q4. It should add about $1 million to our overall 2016 EBITDA. So that’s a recap on 2016 in the fourth quarter. Let me also turn to 2017. We’re in the middle of our 2017 strategic planning process and we still have a lot more work to do. We expect to be in a position to give you more precise and in-depth views on our Q4 call in late January. But at this point, we thought it would be useful to give you, at least, a glimpse of what we’re seeing so far in the dating business. On the revenue front, as you can see on the slide, we believe we can achieve 15% to 20% growth over 2016. Tinder will continue to perform very strongly as well PlentyOfFish, and we’ll get increasing contributions from most of our other dating businesses. We think, we’re well-positioned to deliver that kind of growth again in 2016. In terms of the EBITDA line, it’s a little bit harder to be precise about that at this point in time. But we did want to go through a few other things that will affect what we come out on EBITDA. There’s really three or four key areas of discretionary spending, which we’re analyzing and that are going to affect, where we come out in 2017 from an EBITDA standpoint. The first is that Tinder, where clearly it’s a case of investing its strength. We’ve seen a fair amount of Tinder headcount growth this year mostly in product and technology, and we expect to continue that next year, we’re just not sure to what extent. We’re also loading in a much larger budget for next year for Tinder on marketing and promotion. It is a typical match-style advertising which is why we put the word marketing in quotes on Slide 14. But it’s more really the product launches PR and things like that. It’s really devoted to drive international group and to help spur interest in the product as we roll out new product developments. Away from Tinder, we’ve been saying for a while that as conversion improves, we’ll increase marketing spend after a down year in 2016. We are anticipating a relatively significant marketing increase next year and that always creates in-period market contraction because of the deferred revenue treatment. We intend to deploying more of this spend early in the year to maximize its impact in our seasonally strong period. We’ve also built in some budget in 2017 for investment in new businesses. We invested heavily in Tinder, as we built it up over several-year period. We haven’t done much of that over the last couple of years and we plan on starting that again next year as we look to find some idea as we’ve been developing. So overall, we’ll see how this all plays out. We know you’re for more details and we’d like to provide them, but we’re still working through the process. We’ll talk about this more next quarter. What we can say at this point is, we’re confident in solid revenue growth and the areas that we’re looking to invest in and invest into our strengths and where we think it makes a lot of long-term success – make sense for the long-term. If you want, we can now open the line up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we’ll take our first question from Brandon Ross. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross:
Hi, thanks for taking the question, guys. Just wanted to know on Tinder. Would you guys exceeding your expectations in subscriptions at a micro transactions. I was wondering why dedicate resources to advertising at all when it may undermine the consumer experience? We found that consumers don’t like advertising on mobile and you’re so successful on subscription so far? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
Thanks, Brandon. I think the first, I guess, the answer is, we were not one of the variables in the business. We said all along is that, as we put in place the technology to be able to sort of start running real advertising volume. So the first thing we’re going to do is test it and we’re going to test it for consumer impact. So I think, the basic premise of your question is absolutely right. We will not run advertising in a manner or at a frequency that is likely to – not is likely to, that will demonstrate itself to be adverse to the consumer experience at all. We have confidence that we can do that in a way it will not have that impact. But as I said, we sort of tamped down the numbers a little bit as we’ve looked ahead in part to be conservative to account for that in part because of the timing of getting it all going all, which is related to, as you say, the success we’re having on alternative sources of revenue. So I don’t think it needs to be either or I think there is a level of advertising at Tinder that will not adversely affect the experience. I think what I’d say is that success we’ve had in the other categories has made it less imperative to nail that precise level of advertising down as earlier as we might otherwise have gotten. And it’s one of the reasons why I should go through that exercise, keep getting pushed back a little bit.
Brandon Ross:
Great, thanks. And one more quick question on the launch of web for Tinder. Is that a margin opportunity for you guys? Do you think even in the United States, say, you could drive consumers from the app to mobile web to potentially avoid Apple and Google taxes?
Greg Blatt:
I would call that a gem of an upside. I think it really depends on what kind of conversion we end up getting on the mobile web. In our other businesses, we’ve talked about mobile web tends to convert not as well as the native approximately. And as we said, in certain of our business, as we’ve improved the mobile web, we have gotten to the point, where it is economically better to sort of keep people on mobile web as opposed to the app. And I don’t know where it can end up at Tinder. We’re certainly not factoring that into our sort of thinking. But lots of things are happening with the mobile web, mobile browsers getting much better, I think the experience is getting richer. Frankly, I think to some extent, I think the mobile web is becoming more competitive over time with the native applications. And as that happens, that should be a natural sort of margin enhancer. But we’re certainly not building like that into our near-term numbers.
Brandon Ross:
Thanks for the question.
Greg Blatt:
Thanks, Brandon. Next question?
Operator:
We will take our next question from Eric Sheridan. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks so much for taking the questions. First one understood on 2017 and it’s still early, how you think through this? But we think through the numbers and investors look at it outside looking at, how should we think about what a dollar invested in the business in 2017 and beyond? And what that does to the arc of revenue growth? How are you thinking about ROI developing, as you look at some of these investments you’re going to make as we move from 2016 into 2017? And then maybe one on the balance sheet, you continue to bring the leverage down. Any update on where you’re comfortable getting the leverage to and how that might inform the way you think about capital long-term?. Thanks, guys.
Greg Blatt:
Thank you. I think it depends on the bucket. I mean, let’s take the buckets of incremental spend separately, because I think, I want to expand a little bit on what Gary talked about in terms of the margin issues for next year. I think it is in a margin expansion phase naturally. Tinder is in a margin expansion phase and the non-Tinder businesses are in margin expansion phase. There are a number of things that are discretionary, but we think smart that we think will have the near-term impact of sort of offsetting to some degree that expansion, and we did it for different reasons and they have different predictability of ROI. So the easiest one is the increase in marketing spend in our non-Tinder businesses, right, and that’s something we’ve got a long track record of doing, not withstanding the fact that we’ve recently discovered in our all-time business, we’re overspending a little bit. I want to be clear on that, that’s maybe we’re getting $0.98 back on a $1 instead of $1.5. So it’s not – we’re not – there’s is very little waste that goes on in our marking spend. And in general, I would say that, on an LTV basis, we tend to expect a solid double-digit return on that sort of marketing spend, somewhere between 20% and 40% positive ROI on that spend. You don’t get all that in year. And so it tends to be margin constraining – margin constricting when you rapidly increase that spend amount. But that is sort of solid. In an ideal world, we are gradually increasing spend every year at increasing conversion levels and that’s what fuel sort of margin expansion growth in these businesses. But when you do a sudden surge like we’re doing next year that there is margin contraction there. In terms of investing in new businesses, obviously, so speculative. When you do that, sometimes you get a positive return, sometimes you don’t. But when you get a hit like Tinder, it is astronomical return. So we probably won’t let on Tinder, I don’t know, don’t quote me, although you will probably $20 million, I don’t know what it was a small about of net money in before we started cranking positive. So and that’s sort of thing you’ve got huge returns. So that’s something that because of the speculative nature, we will keep limited. But we think it’s money well spent in a period of what we consider to be real strength. Then you get to the two Tinder factors and here it’s just much harder to say. I think, Tinder is still a startup. We – we’re doubling headcount every nine months, or at least, we’ve doubled the headcount over the last time months, whatever it was. We believe that product is the future of this business. And as we sit here and we increasingly – we’re – we have a great luxury of the further we go the more things we see to do that we think are exciting and growth driving. And so we tend to be expanding resources to meet those things. It’s very hard to really at this stage convert that into real ROI thinking. It’s very hard to know each project that you do, what kind of incremental effect that has on revenue? But we are absolutely committed to continuing to feed that product beast, because we think it is the ultimate driver. I love to say that in the scheme of these things, the increase in headcount in terms of dollars isn’t that big. On a quarterly basis, it adds up, but when we look ahead to next year, that that is – the number that we will have there is sort of – it’s not a major force in constraining the margin expansion. I think the biggest one and the one that is frankly the most speculative is, again, this “marketing”. The reality is that we have grown this business until very recently from LA with intermittent and remote sort of concentration on international expansion, haven’t had a dedicated team, we haven’t had a dedicated effort, nonetheless our growth has been great. And so there are sort of two points of view there. One is, well, keep to what you’re doing, you don’t have to do anything else in order to drive that growth. The other is, we’re too early to have this kind of margin expansion. There are whole bunch of things that we can think of that we think are good ideas to replicate the kind of promotional infrastructure that we have in the U.S. in foreign markets and we want to take this opportunity to do it and see what happens. The reality is, I don’t know exactly what we’re going to find. I’m sure some of the things we do are going to be very positive. They’re going to increase acceleration of MAU growth and we’re going to double down on them. I’m sure maybe some things we do that aren’t going to be that great. We don’t really have a clear playbook for doing this in a business that isn’t a traditional marketing business. But we think the opportunity is so big. And we think that especially on the international side so untapped that not to put the effort into it and see what happens in a period of such strength is just, it just doesn’t make any sense. So our philosophy has always been to not spend money in order to create momentum, but spend money into existing momentum and that’s very much what we’re doing here. I think when you add it all up, I think that, I think it’s unlikely that we’re worse than flat on margins. But I think that to the extent that we find year-over-year. But I think to the extent that we find a real opportunity here. We’re going to spend into that. We don’t think any of this stuff is long-term margin constraining. We think this is money well spent. So that when the margin continues its expansion, it will be on a larger user and revenue base. I mean that’s very much we’re focused on right now. We think we’ve got sort of a unique global opportunity here in a growing category to continue to maintain and enhance our leadership position and that’s what we’re focused on doing.
Gary Swidler:
I think, Eric, your second question was about the balance sheet. And we don’t have really any changes to our strategy around, I think, we’ve been pretty clear that we don’t want to stockpile cash. We carry a reasonable amount of debt. We’re very comfortable with the amount of debt that we carry. But we’re going to use our cash to chip away at it. We haven’t quite pay down debt yet, but we’ve been building up the cash. But we’re in a position to do that, if we want to. And we will chip away at it over the course of next little while, where we targeted gross leverage under three times. We’re going to be there pretty shortly. Obviously, we don’t think this is the right time to do buybacks, given our low flow. Dividends probably short-term don’t make sense for us either. We could be opportunistic on M&A, but we’re not particularly focused on that, given all the opportunity we have internally. At some point, we’ll find something interesting to buy. But for the foreseeable future, we’ll gradually chip away and continue to bring our leverage levels down that’s really what we’re going to with the balance sheet and that’s been very consistent.
Eric Sheridan:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Gary Swidler:
Okay.
Lance Barton:
Next question.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from John Blackledge. Please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great, thanks. Couple of question. So in terms of the core Match trends ex-Tinder, it looks like North America subs were down about 80,000 in 3Q, international plus 60. Just wondering if our math is right there and how that should turn in the fourth quarter. And then for Greg’s comments with a sudden surge in kind of non-Tinder marketing spend. Can core Match get back to mid to high single-digit sub growth in 2017, or beyond? And then just one other question percentage of Tinder revenue that’s a la carte and what’s boosting offer to subs and non-subs going forward? Are all the a la carte products going to be available for non-Tinder plus subs? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Thank you. Given what your math – your math is right. I don’t know.
Greg Blatt:
I checked his math this morning he had in his report and but…
Gary Swidler:
Well, I don’t know you, please go ahead.
Greg Blatt:
You know, how we disclosed it, his math is correct.
Gary Swidler:
Right. Okay, I think look, we – our North America PMC, Q3 was always going to be sort of the trough in our short turnaround than we think on an average a year-over-year sort of basis. And we think again, in terms of year-over-year PMC comparison and we think that’s the case. We do think our turnaround that we’ve talked about is, as you can see from the conversion chart and the fact that we’re going to ramping up spend is still very much directionally on track. I think obviously, the softness we had in OkCupid and in our time this year and are sort of pullback on marketing spend there, I think sort of potentially delays that sort of crossover point. At the same time, we’re ambitious that we can reallocate a bunch of that spend to Match into other places profitably. So I think that’s something we’re going to figure out over the next two or three quarters. But certainly the overall directional trend is right and we do expect it to cross over next year and return to growth. I think do we return to mid to high single-digit growth next year? No. I think we’ve always said that sort of 2016 was a trough, 2017 is when we start getting it going again. I do absolutely believe that the non-Tinder businesses should be able to grow mid to high single-digit PMC on a longer-term basis. We see it happening at Meetic, again, Meetic is doing great. Meetic is having that kind of sub growth and Tinder is growing robustly in Europe. I mean it’s not terribly different than what we have here. So and you’ve got to do and we’ll move ahead, I mean, it’s a very competitive environment. So we do think that each of these businesses are sort of transitioning through this conversion trough at different paces for different reasons. But long-term we’re – we continue to have the exact same outlook that we’ve had on the growth potential of those businesses. I don’t think we disclosed the relative contributions of a la carte and subscriber revenue. Obviously, to-date until very recently, we’ve only had one a la carte feature, which is Super Likes and that’s only been available to subscribers. Boost is our first sort of foray into a la carte transactions for subscribers and non-subscribers alike. So far so good, but too early to sort of plot out a long-term revenue mix between the two. As I said in the past, sort of the decision to make something a, a la carte feature, or a subscription feature is really tactical. I mean right now, for instance, with both Super Like and Boost, you get a certain amount of them as part of your subscription and then you pay for more of it, and you could reconfigure those 10 different ways to shift revenue from subscription to a la carte. So I think of that has been pure pricing optimization and that will occur and sort of go up and down over time.
John Blackledge:
Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
You’re, welcome.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from Heath Terry. Please go ahead.
Heath Terry:
Great, thanks. Just curious in the commentary around sort of the lifetime value calculation. How much of that has been deterioration of that lifetime value, and I realize this is only relative to one sort of small segment. Is it related to mobile? Is it related to just shorter life time on that particular platform, given the demographic? Just sort of curious what the math behind that change in LTV is? And then on – just on Tinder and the commentary that you had around mobile advertising, I guess, somebody sort of referenced a similar question earlier. But is there a sense that that advertising on Tinder is going to have the kind of demand that you’re expecting for just given the broader, I think, weakness in sort of run of mobile advertising that we see not just within dating, but kind of across everything that’s non-Facebook, Google and a handful of other sites?
Greg Blatt:
Okay. In terms of the LTV, LTVs have been going up across our businesses. And including at our time, I think, what really happened is that, we over-calculated an increase in LTV and market is against it. Meaning, we’ve made some product changes. They increased LTV, but there were some downstream. There was some pull forward involved and our just – our general formulas didn’t sort of pick it up as well as it should have, which is a mistake again, we’d rarely make. And we pride ourselves on measurement in these areas and spent hundreds of million dollars a year and over the years to track it very well, which is frankly why it was frustrating even with just several million dollars to see that we’re sort of doing it wrong. So I think that the LTV trend overall is up. It’s driven by a combination of pricing and there’s really been very little change in duration. I think again, we’ve got the LTV as a subscriber as conversion has come down over the last year, the value of the registration by definition has come down a little bit. And so you sort of measure LTV, both on the registration side and on the subscriber side. On the subscriber side, it’s continue to go up. On the registration side, it’s gone down, which has been an increase in LTV partially offset by decline in conversion, and as we showed you in that chart that’s reversing itself and sort of shifting forward. So the biggest macro trend that we’ve had has been on the conversion side, driven by the mobile shift, and again, we’re sort of putting that mostly behind us. On the advertising demand side, I think, you’re certainly right. I mean, it sort of just everyone knows that in this sort of mobile world, there has been a few large sort of advertising players who demand most of the attention. And I think that’s certainly a hindrance to Tinder, if it were sort of an advertising-only business that was entirely predicated on building all its revenue that way. I think starting from the base that we are, I think, we see plenty of demand to grow our ad revenue meaningfully in a way that it doesn’t to the earlier question – from Brandon doesn’t sort of undermine the user experience. But we’re going to figure that out over the next year, as we begin to sort of test higher volume of advertising. But we think we’re ways off from that sort of macro demand concentration sort of being a real impediment to – are being able to meaningfully grow that business.
Heath Terry:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from Dan Salmon. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon:
Hi, guy, good morning. Greg, when you look at the outperformance of Tinder PMC as you discussed which was your original forecast at the beginning of the year. Can you dive in a little bit to the demographics? Are you seeing younger users more inclined to pay, as the older users picking up the app in the first place, just a little color on that would be great? And then second, on the advertising roll out discuss sort of getting the back-end set by moving over from live rail to double click. I’m just interested sort of what are the near-term priorities now? Is it filling out the sale force, agency relations or is it really now driving into ad products and starting to run a little bit more? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
All right. Thank you. On the PMC trends, I think, it’s been strength across the board, both – I think, it’s been sort of uniform outperformance in terms of both geography and age demo against our initial expectations. I think part of that is, we haven’t really screw anything up, meaning most of the things we’ve gotten have worked and they’ve worked really well. And you always build in some level of, well, this won’t hit, or this won’t whatever. And I think we just – we’ve executed really well. I think that the product – the product has continued to keep pace with the users demands. It is proven to be a very, very well monetizing, well renewing, well retaining sort of product. I mean, I think some of that stuff you just don’t know until you have some time behind you. So I think that’s gone really well. On the advertising side, we did, I think I told – I said last quarter, we sort of built up our human infrastructure maybe a quarter or two in advance of what we needed to just because we – the technology side wasn’t keeping pace. So certainly don’t need to build up a sales force any meaningful way at this point. I think it’s about testing ad units frequency, getting the right supply in the door, both direct and some level of third-party and having the volume sort of test the frequencies, the cohorts, et cetera. And as we said now to a number of questions, we’re not going to rush it. We’re going to make sure it doesn’t hurt customer experience. We’re confident that we can do it in a way that won’t. Again, I think it’s great sort of engaging, but not interrupting advertising. But we’ve got to nail down viewability and the right sort of roll video and all these things. So we’re going to do this in a way precisely, because we’ve got such great revenue traction everywhere else, where we’re not going to trip on ourselves in terms of the user experience.
Dan Salmon:
Great. Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from Douglas Anmuth. Please go ahead.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thanks for taking the question. Greg, I was hoping to get your latest thoughts on whether Princeton Review is strategic to your business and whether you would actually consider some strategic structural alternatives here? And also can you help us understand the normalized growth rate for PlentyOfFish better just as it fully lapped here in October? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
Thank you, Doug. On TPR, I think, Gary talked about the performance, obviously, there on a strategic basis, there are a bunch of things that are happening there that we’re really excited about. I think the deterioration in the legacy business is forcing the mobile transition faster, I think, than we had expected, and there’s always some friction there. I think in terms of whether it’s strategic, you can get tied up in those words. I think, obviously, it’s not the dating business. The dating business is our main focus. I think that – and so therefore, by definition, it’s strategic. As to whether we consider anything, I think, the best way I say it is, I think it will be less surprising for something to happen there than in any of our other businesses, but I’m not going to predict any transaction happening, that’s not sort of the way we do things. I think we continue to believe in that business. We think it has a lot of upside. We don’t think it’s a meaningful distraction. At the same time, it is definitely not central to what we spend most of our time focusing on.
Douglas Anmuth:
Any color on PlentyOfFish?
Greg Blatt:
Oh, sorry. Again, we don’t go business by business. I think that, as I said before, I think that we expect our non-Tinder businesses to be able to grow in the mid to high single digits PMC. Long-term, we think it will be somewhat less than that next year. And PlentyOfFish is probably the fastest growing of those businesses next year. So you can triangulate from those things I’ve already said to the best of your ability. But we really don’t want to – the portfolio makes it very hard to sort of give our growth rates kind of business by business basis.
Douglas Anmuth:
Got it. Okay. Thanks, Greg.
Greg Blatt:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from Ross Sandler. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Thanks, guys. Just can you give us an update on the overall size of Tinder on a user DAU basis? And then as you start rolling out some of these new features, you’ve been rolling out the paid products now for a number of quarters. How does the retention rates look in some of these cohorts? And how the U.S. and the international markets differ from a retention standpoint? And then, Gary, on the 2017 outlook, just want to make sure, we’re still on track to see the non-Tinder legacy plus puff EBITDA grow in 2017, just want to confirm that? Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
On the DAU/MAU question, again, we don’t disclose it. I can tell you continues to grow- both DAU and MAU continue to grow nicely. I think in terms of retention, unlike – unfortunately, when you roll out revenue features, you can see impact vary sort of instantaneously on the ecosystem. I think with some of these other pictures it’s less clear. I think certainly overall, retention and reactivation is sort of – reactivations continue to increase. Retention is generally been stable over the last few months and sort of up and down, we’ve had some bugs that have brought it down and then some lifts that have gone up. So it’s sort of been a little all over the place. But in general, MAU and DAU continues to increase. DAU to MAU continues to stay generally stable. And I don’t have – I’m not aware and don’t have in front of me any meaningful difference between, in general, the U.S. and Europe tends to act relatively consistently on those metrics with the rest of world being a little bit more all over the place. But in general, I would say that, those metrics have been stable. Growth has been good and those metrics have been stable.
Ross Sandler:
And then I think in terms of your 2017 question, we talked about single-digit PMC growth in the other businesses that translate to similar levels of revenue growth and as well as modest EBITDA growth. So that’s what you should expect for 2017 across those businesses? Obviously, we’ve all talked about, we’re spending up significantly on marketing, so factor that in?
Gary Swidler:
EBITDA growth in those businesses will be less than revenue growth, because we are increasing the marketing spend meaningfully, but we still expect to have EBITDA growth in those businesses next year.
Lance Barton:
I think we have time for one more question.
Operator:
We’ll take our last question from Chris Merwin. Please go ahead.
Christopher Merwin:
All right. Great, thanks I just have a couple of questions. So for Tinder next year in terms of the various pieces of growth, do you think the bigger driver is top of the funnel traffic growth, which is, I guess, is going to be helped by marketing, or is it also driving conversion and increasing to pay penetration rate for that app? And then a second question and this is just a follow-up from earlier. In terms of the conversion headwinds for the core business, I think you said that those are mostly behind you next year. So in order to get back to high single-digit growth over the long-term, is that purely a function of more efficient marketing spend, or is there still some conversion tailwinds there, just trying to understand the pieces of that? Thank you.
Greg Blatt:
,:
in terms of whether the top of the funnel growth is sort of the bigger driver of revenue growth next year than continued monetization, I haven’t done that math. My instinct is that top of the funnel growth tends to have more of a deferred impact. Meaning, we’re still very early in the monetization sort of stage of things and that tends to drive very rapid growth. I think the way our unlike a – unlike the Match business, for instance, where the big majority of new subscriptions take place in the early days of a user’s life span. Tinder is much more widely distributed across sort of the age of a registration, I don’t mean the age of a person, but how long someone has been on Tinder for. So you sort of get – you get revenue payback from user growth much quicker on Match than you do on Tinder. And that’s just the nature of soft paywall business versus a hard paywall business. So I think they’re both incredibly important. One tends to have more longer-term effect and one more near-term effect, but I haven’t calculated the relative mix for next year. In terms of conversion headwinds, as I said in the earlier slide, the 30-day conversion, which is sort of near-term conversion is doing very well. I also just said that is the biggest part of conversion of these businesses. But it’s ahead of some of the other businesses – some of the other parts of conversion, be a lease up conversion, older co-work conversion, et cetera, all of those things go into sort of driving that subscriber growth. So I think, as we’ve said throughout, it’s going to be over the course of 2017, which is as we increase marketing spend and as those things follow behind on conversion, where you start to see that real return to growth. And what drives more efficient marketing in part is improvement in those conversion metrics. Also, we’ve got new creative and that sort of stuff coming in, it somewhat dependent on that, but it’s mostly driving those metrics. So that will happen over the course of 2017. They’re all sort of following that same direction driven by the slowdown in mobile and that reallocation of resources to mobile product work.
Christopher Merwin:
All right.
A - Greg Blatt:
So I guess that’s it. Thanks a lot guys. Again, we’re excited about where we are right now. We’re excited about 2017. We have gone through this planning process a lot of exciting things on the product roadmaps, both the Tinder and at Match and some of other businesses that we think it could be a great year, really excited about it. Look forward to talking to you guys next quarter.
Operator:
This does conclude today’s conference. You may disconnect at any time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Lance Barton - SVP, Investor Relations Greg Blatt - Chairman and CEO Gary Swidler - CFO
Analysts:
Douglas Anmuth - JPMorgan Dan Salmon - BMO Capital Markets Ross Sandler - Deutsche Bank Eric Sheridan - UBS John Blackledge - Cowen and Company Peter Stabler - Wells Fargo Jason Helfstein - Oppenheimer & Co. Christopher Merwin - Barclays Capital Nat Schindler - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Match Group report's Q2 2016 Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Lance Barton, Senior VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Lance Barton:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Match Group earnings call for the second quarter of 2016. We are very delighted to have everyone join us today. Here with me is Greg Blatt, our Chairman and CEO; and Gary Swidler, our Chief Financial Officer. You can find an investor presentation on our Web site that we're going to run through those slides on the call to you today. And then we will open it up to Q&A afterward. But before we get started, I’d like to -- do a few housekeeping things and remind you that during this call we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements typically may be proceeded by words such as we expect, we believe we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'm going to turn things over to Greg.
Greg Blatt:
Thanks, Lance. Good morning everybody. Q2 was another great quarter. I know people get caught up sometimes in the minutia of this process as our revenue, as our EBITDA beat etcetera. From those perspective this is clearly -- really good quarter. But we sort of look it on a broader basis, long-term. Are we building the businesses we set out to build? Are the things we wanted to be happening actually happening? From that perspective, we also think Q2 is a really good quarter. But we look at quarters, and we expect that to continue going forward. We’ve laid out a plan and connects with the IPO. We’ve been delivering on it consistently quarter-to-quarter. And here the big point before we get to the slides. Tinder growth is fantastic. We’re investing in big product initiatives to drive that growth well into the future and we couldn't be more optimistic about its outlook. Our other international businesses also continue to do great across multiple territories. We’re driving meaningful conversion improvements primarily through mobile product work, which is on schedule to deliver our North American businesses back to PMC growth in the first half of 2017. These are the big building blocks of our plan. We're on track on all of them. Really the only part of the plan we're behind is on building our ad business, which we set to the outset which could be the shakiest in terms of timing and predictability in terms of how quickly it would ramp. And even that’s only behind because of everything else that Tinder is being going so well, that it's been demanding double down attention. But we’ve ramped up in the ad business, to be able to tackle this opportunity and we’re actually committed to doing so. So really confident about where we are. We feel good about sort of the predictability and the fact that the things that we thought would happen have happened. And we really do expect this progress to continue. Now let’s hit the slides. Slide 4, pretty straightforward. Great growth at Tinder, PlentyOfFish, real good performance at Meetic. North America is on pace for its turnaround. We will talk about that in some detail a little bit later. We got some headwinds at OurTime. So we cut back on marketing spend in the quarter, which helped EBITDA in Q2, but hurts revenue little bit and will hurt both a little bit next quarter. As an aside, hopefully the upside of that is that it debunks the myth that Tinder explains all things in the dating category. OurTime is sort of without competition. It’s a little behind in our mobile progression, just because of the allocation of resources to it. And we’re quite confident with the brands and our ability to bring that back through continued product work and marketing. But that is a little stumbling block in the quarter. Also really exciting, the Japanese market is starting to pick up for us. We had solid performance in our Pairs business, which we acquired last year. Tinder in Japan is taking off and Match Japan, which has been around for a long-time, is at an all-time high in terms of PMC and has good momentum there. The second-biggest economy in the world I think. It has been a long-term category resistor. So if we can get this trend to continue, it marks real upside for our business. Slide 5. Obviously Tinder just continues to roll. On track, on PMC, we did a June release that’s focused on Tinder Plus, a series of optimization, a few new features, just continues to show the elasticity of modernization in Tinder. The improved conversion, we increased ARPU, renewal rates continued to be great. And you look at the graph on the bottom right there, on a global basis excluding games, Tinder is now the number five grossing app in the world, behind only Netflix, HBO, Spotify, and LINE. Really getting into some heavy company there and really just on a fantastic role. I think the headline sort of going forward is we've more than double the headcount in the last 12 months predominantly in product and technology. We expect that to continue. There are far more exciting things for us to do than we can, given our resources. We've got a new management team firmly in place now. It's really starting to operate effectively and we’re scaling underneath it against a wide variety of initiatives. So, we feel really good about it. One of those initiatives, Tinder Social, we launched in the U.S and several other English speaking countries last week. This is sort of a big deal, not because it’s a new product future, but because it really is an entire new playing field for us to play on. Natural adjacency, it expands our audience, reduces the stigma associated with the dating category, really unlike a feature that you launch. This is a playing field that you should expect us to be playing on for a while, meaning we’re going to launch feature after feature in this area without neglecting the core business. But we really think this is an exciting opportunity for us and we’re really going to invest heavily in it. Switching to Slide 7, just sort of playing off of the Tinder Social example, we really have become a amazing and unparalleled product and technology sort of operation in this category. We got over 500 people across the Company who are working on Product and Tech. We know this category is going to continue to growth nicely. So the challenge for us is to make sure that we are offering the products and services that people in this growing category want. Product is the key to that, while we have separated product groups across the businesses they are increasingly working in a coordinated fashion. This slide is intended to sort of demonstrate that. It sort of have three buckets. One is, where you have individual businesses to develop a feature that works really well, our ability to rapidly deploy that feature across all our other businesses. It's something we're doing. You got the Android Native App at Meetic, Premium Privacy Offering we developed at Match that we’ve now rolled out at Meetic, OkCupid, and Tinder, etcetera. So the whole bunch of things there that have been pioneer to the certain business and then deployed across the other businesses. Next is sort of the big initiatives that we know we need to attack on the category. Messenger Bots or something that are coming and we’ve got the Meetic team working on that. The Match team is working on artificial intelligence and its matching algorithms. Meetic is working on third-party integrations, Match Location features etcetera. So, these are all things in a coordinated fashion rather than having all these teams working on the same thing at the same time, we are sort of divvying them up, so that you're really getting the scale benefits of a unified product team, even though its organized individually. And then finally incubating new businesses. Tinder was the last meaningful businesses -- business that we’ve launched internally, but before that there have been a bunch, some of which had some impact, some of which didn't and we continue to be very focused on that. We're testing a new app right now. We got another one that we expect to test in the remainder of this year, and then there are three additional products that we’re working on. There are standalone products that we think have potential. So, we expect to continue to be an R&D shop, a product shop, a technology shop and when you look across the category there is no one else who can come anywhere close to that. So we really are in it for the long-term in a growing category. We think this is a big competitive advantage. Switching to Slide 8, I want to spend some time on this, because we’ve talked about conversion a lot for a while, especially mobile conversion. It's been a headwind for us in the last few years. And we told you we think it's going to start turning around both because of increased product focus and the slowing mobile mix shift. On this slide you start to see the evidence of that and it really is the underlying key to the turnaround in our North American businesses that I know people are focused on. On this slide, we see the slowing mobile mix shift trend we’ve been highlighting. 74% of mobile in Q2, the pace of increasing mobile shift had certainly slowed. We talk about conversion. We see that mobile mix shift has been a big driver of conversion, and we see here real improvements in the 30-day conversion number, 7% up year-over-year in Q2 across all our businesses. I said before that conversion can be sort of a squishy number. A lot of things can impact it, pricing, discounting, reg [ph] capture, new marketing channels etcetera. So we don’t want to be too granular here, because it, frankly can be misleading on a period-to-period basis. But when you blend it all in together, you look across the business, across platforms, it really is demonstrative. ex-Tinder were up 7% year-over-year. This is driven by much greater than 7% improvement in mobile where the focus is. So the mobile number is meaningfully higher than 7% and that's really where we put our focus. I think that from a North American perspective, if you pull PlentyOfFish out of this, which sort of is in these numbers. You see that prior to Q1, we had seven straight quarters of this number declining, okay. So we’ve been on a continuous multiyear conversion decline, which turned in Q1 of this year. And now we’ve got two solid quarters of conversion improvements after that and that's really why this turnaround is on track. The other piece of the turnaround is marketing. We’ve told you that we cut back on marketing as conversion declined because the ROI decision is strong, that’s just basic math. We also told you that we would start to increase marketing spend as we rebuild conversion. So if you look at this year, North America ex-POF, ex-tinder, Q1 through Q3 of this year were down year-over-year in marketing spend, right. So you'd expect to have the PMC trend that we’ve had, because we’re not spending as much on marketing. As conversion builds, which is now doing, we’re going to start increasing spend. We expect Q4 marketing spend in those businesses to be meaningful year-over-year and we expect that to continue into 2017. So you really have two things going on. You’ve got improving conversion, increasing marketing, which take us from effectively the trough in average PMC that we’re at right now in these businesses and builds it back up into growth in the first half of 2017. If you think back to that Meetic analogy side from last quarter, it show that the first thing that starts to change is your quarterly net ads number, which is your change in subs in period. It hit the trough in terms of year-over-year decline, then the decline start to get smaller and then they turn positive. This quarter is the fifth consecutive quarter for our North American businesses in which net ads are down year-over-year. But it's also the smallest decline and we expect it to be the last one for a while. Next quarter, we expect that line to across the horizontal line. We expect Q3 to be positive in terms of net ads, and we expect that to continue. So again, we are on schedule on our North American rebound. The same schedule we laid out and connects with the IPO that we’ve been touting each quarter. The evidence is coming through in terms of the improved conversion and the declining net ads lot and we expect that to continue to go positive next quarter. Switching to Slide 9, our advertising business. We are going to drive meaningfully more ad revenue at Tinder in '16 than '15, but not as much as expected. The primary constrain has been internal competition for product resources. The reality is in order to build the ad business you need to do things to product, you need to add in a variety of capabilities. And the reality is that they have not been able to get on the product roadmap. We've been focused on building Tinder Social, launching that. We've been focused on the Tinder Plus initiatives, and there really is the bottleneck at this point in terms of our ability to get the advertising business up and going. We’re now building a dedicated product and tech team to deliver that. Similarly to what we did with Tinder Plus, if you remember -- throughout last year it was always a question of where we’re going to work resources to Tinder Plus or to other things? Now that's no longer an issue. We’ve got a dedicated team. We are working to create that dedicated team in advertising. But again, there are just so many exciting things going on that we just haven't been able to get on that roadmap. So, we expect that to change in the balance of this year. On our other businesses, we’ve been able to increase CPMs nicely year-over-year, but impressions are down, driven by mobile and that's just a fact of life. As we've rebuilt our mobile products, they’ve been primarily focused on direct revenue and now we’ve to begin to optimize them for advertising as well to start getting additional impressions and that sort of thing. Start building native placements and creating a more endemic advertising business in our mobile products. Next steps, that will go through here, but if you can see they're all sort of technology enabled which is why getting on the roadmap is so important. I think that looking back and sort of looking at the impact for the year, you've got a slower than expected revenue ramp. Its meaningful. We expect it to have big increases in Q3 and Q4. We just haven't done the product work to enable it. Nonetheless, we ramped up the business to be able to do that. We grow and hedge meaningfully. We are going to have approximately $10 million higher run rate this year on OpEx relating to advertising that we did last year without a meaningful increase in revenue. So, the short-term impact of that is a margin squeeze in the second half. Long-term impact is we are fully committed to this business. It is not a question of us not wanting to do this, we’ve built up the team to do it. We’ve got a bottleneck on products and technology, sort of in the businesses, not in the ad sales group. We are working to break that down, but we are committed. If I sort of knew than what I knew now, we’ve sort of delayed hiring a quarter or two and sort of ramped up a little bit later, probably but we've taken the position on Tinder, in particular, and we’re going to be aggressive that at a business of this stage being able to mark expenses to revenues perfectly symmetrically is just not viable without leaving opportunity on the table and we're in growth mode here. So it certainly is a little bit of a negative on the back half of the year in terms of EBITDA margin, but it's very positive in terms of our overall outlook and we expect this to be a meaningful contributor next year. I also should make the point other way. We make it again later, that we completely offset the indirect revenue shortfall with the direct revenue surplus, which is really where the product and technology resources went. In other words, we had to make a choice. We could both launch Tinder Social and drive the Tinder Plus revenue and drive the ad revenue all in the same period. We just didn't have the resources, we're getting them and again we feel very positive about, but where this is, it's just coming a little slower than we expected. With that, I will turn it over to Gary, for some financial stuff.
Gary Swidler:
Great. Thanks, Greg. If you slip over to Slide 11, for the Q2 results, you can see we had a very strong quarter from a revenue, operating income, and EBITDA growth standpoint. Slide 11 listed on as reported basis. Back on Slide 16, we show it on a pro forma for the POF acquisition basis, which is how we look at the business and its strong across all metrics. We had outperformance by Tinder and Match North America. It was partially offset by weaker performance at Match Affinity, OkCupid, and our advertising business as Greg just went through. We exceeded expectations on EBITDA, as we spend a little less on marketing in the quarter and we also shifted some expected costs from Q2 to Q3. Non-Dating business was flat year-over-year, because the SAT test prep revenue remains lower than we expected after test redesign. Our Non-Dating business did move closer to profitability in the quarter and continues to execute on its strategy of moving the business online and increasing cross-selling. The Company's margin improvement story also continued well in the quarter, as a larger percentage of revenue is derived from brands at lower marketing spend. Operating expenses, particularly sales and marketing, declined as a percentage of revenue in the quarter. If you flip to Slide 12 on ARPPU, ARPPU was real positive for us in this quarter. Our ARPPUs increased sequentially in all regions. We saw stability to slightly positive moves in rate across our North American brands. Tinder saw improvement in ARPPU this quarter compared to last as the a la carte revenue which they sell only to existing PMC drove higher ARPPU. Tinder ARPPU internationally was up very strongly. I’m going to now turn it back over to Greg to say a few things about the outlook and then I will take you through the details.
Greg Blatt:
Yes, just looking at the full-year, our revenue expectation is unchanged from what we said in the last quarter. There is a mix shift as I mentioned, higher direct revenue mostly from Tinder replaces indirect revenue, again mostly from Tinder. In terms of EBITDA, our numbers come down a little bit due to increased ramping of headcount at Tinder. As I said, we're pushing hard there to be able to do all the things we want to do. There is a meaningful increase there. We exceeded our headcount expectation already for the year a while ago, and as we brought in the new Management team and we started to layout the ambitions and plans, there's just so much to do. So, I said that could happen. I’ve been saying that its happen all along. We're excited that the opportunity justifies the investment. Additionally, the higher direct revenue that we have, and remember the ad revenue comes with IAP fees and so that's just math. So, overall this number comes down a little bit, but it's really all driven by increased opportunity, increased aggressiveness, and we feel really good about the fact that we're in a position to invest in these businesses as we are. Gary, if you want to take the quarter-to-quarter?
Gary Swidler:
Just a couple of comments in the quarter. We say 2% to 3% sequential dating revenue growth. If you go back to our fourth-quarter call, we talked about 5% to 7% sequential revenue growth through the course of this year, but we had a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1 and a stronger-than-expected net performance now in Q2. So if you go back and do the match, this 2% to 3% lands you squarely within the range that we laid out on the Q4 call. So, as Greg said, we’re continuing to execute on our plan that we laid out in the IPO and deliver the results that we’ve been forecasting. In terms of EBITDA margin, we had a very strong performance in the second quarter as I described and we’re expecting the margins to stay roughly in line with where they were in the second quarter, again here in the third quarter, coming up. In terms of the fourth quarter, we're forecasting 4% to 6% sequential dating revenue growth. So more in line with what we laid out back earlier in the year. And again that's driven by significant shift from indirect revenue over to direct revenue. The margins for the fourth quarter we're anticipating will be in the mid 40% range. We had some seasonal effects in the fourth quarter and that’s kind of typical. If you go back over time you will see that, that margins due increased pretty significantly in the fourth quarter, so we are expecting the same thing this year. In terms of the Non-Dating, as we said we manage this business really for progress on its stated strategy and for positive EBITDA. We are less focused on the revenue growth. We are expecting modest aggregate second-half profitability in the business, which we think will be enough to offset the losses we took in the first half on this business. So the business should be modestly profitable for the entire year, which is what we've been stating all along. Typically the third quarter is the strongest for Princeton Review and we're expecting this year to follow that same seasonal trend. On the -- I will leave the outlook there and I will go to Slide 14 just for a minute. This business continues to have incredibly strong cash flows. We are predicting mid-50s adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rates in 2016. You could see what we’ve done historically is consistent with where we've been historically. We have relatively light CapEx needs in the business. We forecasted 3% to 4% for 2016 and we’re tracking well to that. So if you do the math through that and take the recent stock price of ours, you can see we’re expecting for 2016 a roughly 5% free cash flow yield, which we think compares incredibly favorably to where other companies like us are priced in the market. We’ve also built our cash very significantly since the IPO. You see we started a $50 million of cash at the IPO. We’re up to $174 million of cash at the end of the second quarter. Our leverage has come down as our EBITDA has grown. We are up 3.5x gross levered and net leverage of about 3x. and we expect that we will use cash to delever down below 3x gross leverage over the course of the rest of the year as we’ve a lot of domestic cash, which we’ve been used to pay down debt. Absent some compelling M&A at opportunity which we don’t see in the short-term. We believe that delevering continues to be our best use of cash at the moment. That is the formal slide presentations that we’ve taking you through. We will now be happy to open up the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Douglas Anmuth with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Douglas Anmuth:
Thanks for taking the questions. First, I just wanted to ask you about Super Likes. It feels like they’re driving more in incremental revenue perhaps than incremental PMCs. Can you just talk about that a little bit, kind of your outlook going forward? And then there is obviously a lot of talk during the quarter about some of the potential benefits from the App Store shift in economics. Can you talk about that as it relates to both Apple and potentially Google going forward for you? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
Sure, Doug. Look, Super Likes drive both, I think when you think about PMC growth or PMC would drive conversion is there are a variety of features behind the paywall. And different features will get different cohorts to subscribe. So some people may subscribe because they want to avoid the daily right swipe limit. Some will subscribe because they want additional Super Likes and some will subscribe because they want our Passport feature. And so the we have internal metrics that allow us to sort of get a good sense of what’s driving it and Super Likes is certainly a meaningful driver of that. We also provide the ability for those subscribers to buy additional Super Likes and when they do that, that drives ARPPU. So it drives both. I mean if you think about it, I want to try get this math right. If you assume -- if you’re a subscriber and you get -- anyway, I don’t want to try and do that, the pricing math, but it’s a meaningful driver of both. And we continue to sort of optimize between those things at all times, right. So, I said throughout that most features could be presented as a subscription feature or as an à la carte feature or as both and you’re constantly optimizing how that works and I’m sure we’re not through optimizing at this point, but right now it's definitely a driver of both pieces. In terms of the App Store stuff, Apple has made some changes to its policies, Google has not. In terms of Apple's policies, there are some benefits for us, not that meaningful. I think that as we’ve talked about, we’re really a periodic consumption business. People will use that for a period of time on average and then they will not use us for a period of time, then they will use us again. And in general, our core usage patterns don't really fit into Apple's sort of post year one, which I think it's like a 60, you can't leave for more than 60 days and that tends not to be our pattern. So there is some benefit there, but I don’t think it's that material. I think that clearly this is the first movement in App Stores in a long time. I think that it is a changing world. I think that they do feel more competition from mobile web where that’s by far the biggest part of our business, so I think it's absolutely possible that those rules could continue to evolve both at Apple and possibly at Google, but we don’t have any special insight into that. So for right now I would say the change is not that material for our business, but over time things could change.
Lance Barton:
The next question please.
Operator:
Okay. And we will take the next question from Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets.
Dan Salmon:
Hey, good morning guys. Maybe one question for Greg, and one for Gary. Just spend a little bit of time on Tinder Social a little bit more and what you think about long-term for monetization of the investment there. Is it the type of model where sort of freemium/premium model fits, where advertising fits or maybe the sort of value added commerce services around that type of social behavior? And then, Gary, just to understand the movements in revenue guidance and Dating revenue being maintained for the year, you came in above the guidance range for sequential revenue growth in the second quarter. Were there some things that just sort of came forward a little bit? Just if you could shed a bit more light on that. Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
On Tinder Social, I think that people buy Super Likes on Tinder Social. Tinder Social when it drives swipes, drives people to the right swipe limit. So, our current monetization system in and of itself works on Tinder Social and in fact we saw nice little pick up this weekend in monetization after we launched Tinder Social. So I think the first response to that is that it fits within our existing monetization framework. Beyond that, I do believe that it presents multiple, especially as we build out in the directions that we think we’re going. Multiple opportunities if you start to go into sort of not just who am I going out with, but where am I going, it starts to create events and sponsorships and a whole bunch of things I think are less obvious on sort of the core Tinder product. But I think that the initial purpose of Tinder Social is about engagement, broadening audience etcetera. It is not being laid out for monetization opportunities in the near-term. It's really about driving engagement, bring in new audiences sort of creating a more coherent sort of tool for planning your social life out. And we think it’s a big first step and we think the -- it will both drive monetization in its current form, but also does present additional opportunities.
Gary Swidler:
And then, Dan, on your question around kind of the revenue trends, as we kind of go through in the slides, Tinder and Match North American really drove the outperformance in the second quarter. So we had some higher revenue there than we’re expecting. In the third quarter, we’re seeing some softness in our Affinity business, some softness in the advertising versus what we expected which Greg went through, and then we’re seeing some strength in Tinder. So those are kind of the moving pieces in the second and the third quarter.
Greg Blatt:
Yes, I think the loss in the -- the loss or sort of the shortfall in ad revenue that we talked about is most pronounced in Q3 and Q4, because that’s when we had it building. I also, as we said, we cut back on some marketing spend in Q2 on Affinity and that will have a revenue impact that really hits in Q3. And so that’s really the Q3 story. Again, made up by Tinder somewhat and made up even more so in Q4 by Tinder is that continues to roll.
Dan Salmon:
Okay, great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And we will go next to Ross Sandler with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Ross Sandler:
Thanks, guys. I had two or three questions real quick here. So first on Tinder, how do you guys compensate Tinder employees given that it's a fast growing start-up amidst other wholly-owned and acquired entities? Did they get Tinder equity or Match equity? And if, the current strong trajectory continues and the market may or may not necessarily appropriately value Tinder, I know it's fairly early post your IPO, but would you consider doing something strategic like IPOing or spinning Tinder at some point? Any thoughts on that idea? Second question is just on Tinder DAUs. Can you give us an update on that number today versus the 9 million you talked about a year-ago, and that's one. And then the last question, Greg you said that the PMC growth ex-Tinder will start to stabilize and pickup when you increase marketing, exiting this year, so should we expect that to grow kind of mid single-digits or how should we think about that ex-Tinder piece in 2017? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
Okay. There is a lot there. On Tinder compensation, we’ve compensated Tinder people, and obviously they get salary. But on the equity side, not unlike we did at Match as part of IAC, people at Match, myself included got equity in Match, despite the fact that IAC was the public company. Now we’ve got OkCupid people and OkCupid got equity and OkCupid even though was part of Match. And then right now people at Tinder generally have Tinder equity. They also have some Match equity sort of depends on the mix. But they have Tinder equity in a very similar program to what we’ve used throughout Match and IAC historically. So they’re incented on Tinder equity value creation primarily. In terms of whether we do something strategic, my God, you guys are insatiable. Usually we’re answering questions about when is Match getting spun off from IAC, now we’re answering questions about when is Tinder. Now, look I think we’re open to anything, right. We are about value creation. I think that unlike Match and IAC, what I think there is less sort of operational integration. There is a lot of operational integration between Tinder and the rest of Match Group. So, the concept of a spin-off, of course is possible, but certainly nothing we would consider in the near-term because frankly that sort of synergistic integration is driving a lot of Tinder's growth. You look at Tinder Plus, the subscription business, the Match Group know-how and influence and involvement in that I think it's been really instrumental. Really I think there are a few -- I’ve never really seen -- the monetization of business goes smoothly as this has from sort of a standing start. So I think anything is possible if there became a meaningful discrepancy in valuation between Tinder as a standalone entity and Match Group, we would absolutely focus on it and do what was necessary to solve it. But it's certainly way early for us to be thinking about that right now. In terms of the growth rates for -- I think what you’re asking is North America ex-POF, ex-Tinder because obviously we’ve got solid growth in our international businesses ex-Tinder, the solid growth at POF etcetera. So narrowing down to those three businesses. I think what I said is that sort of we’re at a trough right now that should last for another quarter. Q4 that starts to narrow, the average PMC decline starts to narrow meaningfully and that turns positive again in first half of '17. I think in terms of year-over-year average PMC growth rate '17 over '16, it will be a little noisy because you will had declines in the first part and then up in the second half. I expect it to be modest for those three businesses in '17, although we've not prepared to fully talk about '17 sort of expectation at this point. But sitting here right now that would be my expectation is modest year-over-year average PMC growth in those businesses, '17 over '16, with, again outpaced Tinder and obviously, then POF and Meetic and everything else doing better which again gets too if take long-term what we've talked about, we’ve talked about ex-Tinder, these businesses growing average PMC in sort of a mid to high single-digit sort of range with operating leverage and revenue leverage and that continues to be our expectation. I will -- I need to look at the -- I mean, the DAUs are up over last year nicely. We don’t give that number, but it is meaningfully up versus the 9 million that we talked about, I guess at Q4 or the IPO, whenever that -- in Q4.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll go next to Eric Sheridan with UBS. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan:
Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just two. One, when you layout the investments you’ve sort of called out for the back part of this year. How should we think about the first part of next year as you move into ’17? Is this scenario where you continue to see places to put money to work to invest for the long-term or to continue to drive subscriber and user value, or how should we think about leverage on these investments as we move past second half ’16? Second question would be on geographic expansion. You called out Japan on this earnings call. Just curious how you’re thinking about some of the other geo’s where you see potential for either organic or inorganic growth on a global scale? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:t:
Gary Swidler:
No, I do agree.
Greg Blatt:
Okay.
Eric Sheridan:
Great. Thanks for the color.
Greg Blatt:
No problem.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from John Blackledge with Cowen and Company. please go ahead.
John Blackledge:
Great. Thanks. Couple of questions. For Tinder, could you talk about the Tinder Plus release in June, the new features. It appears to be mainly incognitive features. Are they rolled out currently in all geographies? Where they tested in markets prior to launch? And just your expectations for conversion and/or engagement. And then separately, in the slide deck you mentioned Match U.S. and Canada saw no seasonal decline in average PMCs for the first time since 2013. Just discuss the drivers, and if you could also update us on the timing of the Match.com mobile web offering, kind of update how that's going? Where we’re at? That would be helpful. Thank you.
Greg Blatt:
Okay. On the June launch, it was a combination of things. There were, I think the primary new features were the sort of we’ll call privacy controls, there are a number of features in there. They are a conversion driver, they appeal to a group that the rest of the products doesn’t. That's sort of the nature of building the subscription business. Additionally we did a fair amount of other optimizations which are sort of below the radar, but they involve packages and pricing and rate cards and all these other stuff that's not sexy but drivers performance. And I’m pretty sure that the incognito stuff is rolled out globally, in terms of whether we tested it. And again, I don’t think we tested it, we didn’t test it at Tinder, but we have similar features at some of our other businesses. And so, we knew roughly what appeals to people, what doesn’t. Again there’s certainly difference’s from product-to-product. There’s a lot of commonality as well and so, one of the benefits we have, if you go back to that product side is, we developed incognito at I think Match and then did it with OkCupid, and then it -- and now with Tinder. So even test it at Tinder per se, but certainly tested it in other laboratories. In terms of, sorry what was the other question?
John Blackledge:
On the Match sequential PMC stability?
Greg Blatt:
Yes. I think again there is, I talked a lot about execution and consistency. We drove up and we had android improvements. We had some marketing efficiencies. We had improvements in reg capture, just as you -- you download the app and then what percentage of the downloads become registrations. We talk about conversion from registration, but you also have traffic to registration wins that you can get. We got some real wins there. So nothing that I -- there is no shiny button that we launched that says, here press this button and conversion goes up. It's just about execution which is a huge part of this business. In terms of mobile web, we’re working on all things across the board. I think that you’ll start to see some meaningful changes to mobile web by the end of this quarter or early fourth quarter, certainly this year. The product team is focused on it.
John Blackledge:
That's great. Can I ask one more question?
Greg Blatt:
Sure.
John Blackledge:
What’s the mix of Tinder subs male, female?
Greg Blatt:
In Tinder sub -- the Tinder subs are pretty focused male, much more so than the user base. And again, given the nature if that were the case at Match for instance that would be a real problem, because only subscribers can talk to each other. In a soft paywall business, it's irrelevant from an ecosystem perspective what your mix is of paid users, all that matters is what your mix is of users which is very healthy at Tinder. Obviously launch of incognito is sort of the first feature we’ve launched that is sort of more female focused, and we’re starting to see a rise there. So I think that it presents a real opportunity to us not dissimilar to how we’ve done at OkCupid and some of our other businesses where the first features that drove that soft paywall subscription business were male oriented, and you start to layer on top some female oriented features, and you start to get back to a balance. But I think the important point is that it's sort of irrelevant from a health of the ecosystem user experience business, what that balance of paid users is in those businesses. Right now it's male tilted.
John Blackledge:
Thank you. Thanks so much.
Gary Swidler:
Thanks, John. Go to the next question please.
Operator:
And we’ll go next to Peter Stabler with Wells Fargo.
Peter Stabler:
Good morning. Now thanks for the question, just a couple. Wondering if you could give us a little color on OkCupid and what’s happening there was called out, and if you could help us understand if there are any particular issues there that you’re working on? And then on OurTime, when you talk about the mobile conversion improvements, how is OurTime working on the mobile side? Is the age issue there make the mobile transition more difficult, and does that lead to lower expectations going forward or increased difficulties, any additional color? I appreciate it. Thank you.
Greg Blatt:
Great. OkCupid -- OkCupid was a huge driver for us for three years. It had great growth. It really has sort of leveled off. I think that when you think about -- when I think about the future of this category, I think that OkCupid is being really well positioned, meaning as much as we love the hard paywall businesses which we do, they are as we know -- they are a huge cash generating machine, but they are slower growing than the soft paywall business. OkCupid is a soft paywall business with a great brand and a great product when you sort of do surveys etc. OkCupid really has a unique personality a special place etc. So I think it's really well positioned to grow. I think we had multiple management turnovers. You had sort of the original founding team moving on. I think in retrospect we didn’t do enough to sort of show that business up, integrate it into the broader institution to be prepared for that moment. And I think that it suffered a lot last year in terms of, on doing things that drove the kind of brand excitement and awareness that it has historically done in terms of data, controversy etc, if it didn’t do those things. And I think that from a product focus it just didn’t, I think it didn’t keep up over the last sort of 12 to 15 months. We’ve got new leadership in. There’s a fair amount of change going on institutionally. I’m very optimistic about it as a long-term brand. Again, more so frankly as many of our other brands, it is sort of incredibly well positioned to capture that sort of demographic, that it's incredibly growing demographic. So I feel really good about it. If this execution matters in this business, and I think that it's going to be couple of quarters before it starts contributing again to grow. In terms of OurTime, one the mobile side I guess that, the thing I would say is probably the most obviously is it's not necessarily that it's harder, but it's later. Meaning, the mobile transition has always been hard. It's just sort of happening at OurTime later than it’s happened at some of our other brands, because it's an older demo. And so, that I don’t have the numbers in front of me. But the -- where does it match, we’re sort of more at the end of that makeshift in OurTime lets say we’re more at the middle of it. And I also think that just, in terms of the last year when we were doing the big product and technology sort of consolidation project, People Media didn’t get the kind of product attention that it would otherwise have gotten, because resources were distracted. And now as we start to build them, sort of Match is getting the focus before People Media. So again, it's one of those things that in hindsight, I sort of, I understand why it's seeing some headwinds right now. We didn’t expect them to come as they did, but I understand them. Haven’t had really a new marketing campaign of moment, in a few years we’re changing that. So I think it's just about focus and energy and I expect it. It continues to be again, like OkCupid very well positioned. It really doesn’t have competition, but any scale it is a growing audience and we just need to focus on it a little bit more.
Peter Stabler:
Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. I’ve asked in the past, is there a way to think about pre-registration growth in the conversions to paid. And is there a trend you can sight there. I know you put the conversion trends kind of for this quarter, but any kind of trending to think about? And then also, we’ve seen some changes in senior leadership. So just maybe give us some color there. Thanks. Brand leadership, not senior, well some of the changes at the brand level.
Greg Blatt:
Sure. I think most of the changes actually happened in the prior quarter unless I’m missing -- we’ve got a new leader at -- we’ve got a new leader at OkCupid, Elie Siedman. So, I don’t -- in terms of like pure brand leadership, I think that the OkCupid one is the most recent one which I think we announced literally the day of the call last time whatever. So he’s been in place for three months. And as I said to the last question, started to make real progress, I think he’s going to be great, but it's too early to really show results there. Other than that, I don’t -- we hired a fair number of people at Tinder, but again I think all that with prior quarters. So, I don’t think there have been big changes in the last three months. Again, the Tinder, a very big influx of new leadership sort of during Q1 into Q2. New engineering, the new Head of International and new Head of Finance, new Head of Marketing, so big changes there. Other than that, I think relatively stable.
Jason Helfstein:
What about Sam leaving?
Greg Blatt:
Sorry, but that happened December 31. So, that was -- and we announced that, we announced that back in November that at the end of year I’ve become CEO as well as Chairman, and Sam was moving on and that happened December 31.
Gary Swidler:
He went on the Board and become Vice Chairman. He is still involved but he is obviously not an executive here anymore. Now he has a new role.
Greg Blatt:
That's right. So that's been -- we’ve been in that mode for six and half months or seven months at this point. And again, I think I’d like to think that it went relatively smoothly, although obviously there is always change. I think we’ve been executing really well. I think that there’s been no organ rejection that I’m aware of in terms of the new leaderships coming in, in a variety of places. I think it's gelling pretty well, and again I think our execution is improving nicely. In terms of the other question, I know you asked that last quarter, and we really should come up with a better way to sort of frame that on a long-term consolidated basis for you. I think again it's hard because you have so many different growth trajectory, it's not -- we really do look at it from a bottoms up sort of business-by-business perspective, and so it becomes sort of a reverse engineering in some ways onto this thing. I think we talk about the trends clearly conversion within each business should be growing now, and we’re seeing that again after several quarters of decline. Because the mobile chip in general within each business we’re improving conversion. We are not -- in some of the business where we pulled back marketing this year we’re not sort of growing regs meaningfully, because they are by definition market independent. We expect to start stepping that up again in Q4. So there’s a lot of different moving pieces. In general we expect users to continue to go up, penetration to sort of be flattish to slightly down as those users go up and makeshift occurs and ARPU as PlentyOfFish sort of anniversaries, and Tinder grows to decline, but much more modestly on a ongoing basis than it has over this last sort of year and half where we had the seismic shift of Tinder going from zero to meaningful and PlentyOfFish coming into the system. So those are sort of the macro-trends, they’re not really different than what we called out in the IPO. They continue to be the case. But in terms of giving you the miracle sort of consolidated model, we still will use something on that. It's not so easily done, and we will work on it.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Chris Merwin with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Christopher Merwin:
All right. Great. Thank you. Just had a couple of questions. I guess first, how did PlentyOfFish perform in the quarter relative to your expectations? And as it relates to your efforts to increase revenue per user, how is that going and have you been able to follow that same playbook as OkCupid? And then just secondly on the advertising business, I guess there’s some of the part of the challenge at least in the near term that with programmatic the opportunity you might be somewhat more limited and you really need to also ramp the direct sales efforts to capture some big budget advertisers. And do you get the sense that the demand is there or just a function of putting the people in place to capture that demand? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
I think POF has been pretty much on plan, since we bought it it's been up or down a little bit and it's had this upside, but in general it's on plan. So we really feel good about it, driven again mostly by this increasing modernization and sort of rolling out these features going very well sort of again, boringly as expected. So that's good. In terms of the ad stuff, we think it could be a mix of direct and programmatic. Again, I’m learning this world on the fly, but it's becoming a more complicated world. You’ve got private marketplaces that are direct sold, but sort of programmatically delivered. And so you get these world blending. We’ve ramped a sales force. We are going to be in that world as well as the straight programmatic world. We do think that's an important part of our growth. I think the problem for us is that, we haven’t really even landed exactly on what the ad unit it, and what the frequencies are and all the rest, because we haven’t really been able to get touch the code in a meaningful way to sort of create that. So we’ve sort of been selling what we we’ve had to sell and we’ve grown revenue in that way. But we’re reluctant to sort of really push that ahead meaningfully until we sort of are able to more systematically assess what we want this business to look like, and we haven’t really had access to do that yet. We expect to do that in the balance of this year, and we expect to be poised to sort of really start growing that revenue in 2017. But we certainly don’t think there’s a lack of demand. We don’t think there’s a lack of resources dedicated to direct sales, and we think that it will make a meaningful part of that business going forward.
Christopher Merwin:
All right. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Operator, let’s try to just get one last question in here. I think that's all we have time for.
Operator:
Okay. And we’ll take that from Nat Schindler with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Nat Schindler:
Yes. Hi, guys. I wanted to just ask, I know it sounds ridiculous because they are very different products, but the phenomenal one has been so strong. I wanted to know if there’s been any effect on your business. Has Pokémon Go affected Tinder usage in the last couple of weeks, particularly that's so big in some geo’s where you are particularly strong with Tinder for example, New York City. Also if you could comment a little bit, I saw some interesting ad units, more native style ads built into Tinder. I think it was for Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, some movie. Can you describe these type of ad units, and do you think kind of custom ad builds like this is a way to really drive high CPMs and could be a significant portion of revenue longer term or is this just a one-off?
Greg Blatt:
Okay. I think on the Pokémon Go, I have not done forensic assessment. I do know that this last weekend was Tinder’s biggest weekend ever. So I don’t -- so I haven’t seen any correlation or assumed one, but I also haven’t looked for one. But from what I have seen without looking forward, the answer would be no. In terms of customer ads, we’ve always done, I’m familiar with that ad unit. I think we’ve done things like that before. One of the things we have to offer is the ability to engage on this life and to offer sort of a post life experience and all that sort of thing. I think it will be a part of our business going forward undoubtedly. I think it's a CPM riser. The ability to which that scales in connection with the private marketplaces and the programmatic and sort of the more standard direct sales, is this thing that I can’t answer yet, because we haven’t really started to roll that out. But I do expect that those kinds of units that are especially they are not just native placements but they are sort of higher engagement units that are higher CPM units to be part of the ad business at Tinder going forward.
Nat Schindler:
Okay, thank you. And one last question if I may, I know this is not really you anymore Greg, but I wanted to know if you have any insight into the thinking that I see on what they want to do long-term with their ownership in Match and how you might see those shares getting more into the tradable world?
Greg Blatt:
I think that's a great question for Mr. Levin and Mr. Schiffman on tomorrow's IAC call. So I would simply say that I don’t have any information other than what we’ve talked about before. So, you’ll have to pose that to them.
Nat Schindler:
Thank you very much.
Greg Blatt:
All right. Thank you everybody. We will see you next or talk to you next quarter. Thank you.
Gary Swidler:
Thank you.
Operator:
And this will conclude today’s program. Thanks for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.
Executives:
Gary Swidler - CFO Greg Blatt - Chairman and CEO
Analysts:
Ross Sandler - Deutsche Bank Doug Anmuth - JPMorgan John Blackledge - Cowen Group Jason Helfstein - Oppenheimer Eric Sheridan - UBS Dan Salmon - BMO Capital Markets Heath Terry - Goldman Sachs Peter Stabler - Wells Fargo
Operator:
Please standby. Your program is about to begin. [Operator Instructions] Good day and welcome to the Match Group report's Q1 2016 Results Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Chief Financial Officer, Gary Swidler. Please go ahead, sir.
Gary Swidler:
Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our conference call for the first quarter of 2016. This is Gary Swidler, and Greg Blatt is here as well. I'm going to turn the call over to Greg in a second. Just before we get started, just a couple of housekeeping announcements. And the first thing is, we're doing things a little bit differently this time, and there's an investor presentation that was posted on our Web site. We're going to review those slides on the call today. So I want to make sure everyone's been able to access that. And then we'll open it up for Q&A. Before we do all that, I'd like to remind you that during this call we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements typically may be proceeded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC. With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Greg Blatt, our Chairman and CEO.
Greg Blatt:
Good morning everybody, welcome. After our last quarter's call we got yelled at by a lot of people for not being as clear in our presentation as we could be. And while I absolutely hate to encourage people to yell at us, we've tried to be as responsive as we could. Hopefully you'll find the new slide format more user-friendly and a little clearer, but we certainly welcome your feedback either on or after the call. Overall, we're very pleased with the quarter. I think I'd be remiss in saying that we were also pleased last quarter too. I think that we got ahead of plan at the IPO. We are executing, I think, pretty much on the mark against it. We've had a few positive surprises, not really any negative surprises, but in general, are sort of on our plan and we feel really confident about our ability to stay on it over the rest of the year and into next year and beyond, where the things are happening like we thought they would. I mean, that's always obviously a good sign. I'm going to run through the slides, I'm not going to spend time on slides, they're self-evident, but I will do sort of a deeper dive on those that could require some voiceover. I think slide three and four are really just the numbers that we've reported in the release. Although slide four shows it pro forma for PlentyOfFish acquisition, which is really the way we look at the business internally. It reflects PlentyOfFish as though we'd owned it in all periods. I think that's the best indicator of the business momentum. Obviously, it makes the numbers a little less spectacular than on slide three, but still very, very solid, and I think the best reflection of how we're doing. Turning to slide five for a second, this shows the PMC numbers, both pro forma, and not again solid growth. I won't kick through all of individual notes at the top, assume you've read them. But if you back up the Tinder numbers that we report on the next page, you sort of see, sort of on a global basis that PMC ex-Tinder is again pro forma for PlentyOfFish. We're up mid single-digits just to about where we thought we'd be. I think we'll end the year a little bit better off than where we are now, and that's driven by number of certain trends that we'll talk about throughout. Obviously we're doing a little bit better internationally, a little bit worse than that domestically. But in general, sort of again, right where we thought we'd be going forward. Slide six, Tinder, this slide is pretty self-evident, but I'm still going to remark on it, just because I think the results are very encouraging. Tinder is really killing it. The numbers are great. We successfully brought in a new management team. We were able to fuse some really experienced people in key positions with, I think, the really important people who got us here to begin with. So I think it's a really good fusion of the old and the new. We're spending a lot of time improving the core product experience, experimenting with new product experiences, and yet continuing to rollout modernization initiatives, each of which has basically exceeded our expectations at the time of rolling it out. I think we've done a really good job on that front, introducing paid features that, not only enhance the experience for the paid user, but actually enhance the experience for the non-paying user as well. And that really is the bull's-eye on modernization. We're starting to build the ad business, as we talked about. We brought in Pete Foster, a long-time ad industry veteran a month or so ago to build it. We think it's going to go a little slower than we'd initially laid out. Again, at the IPO, we said that the pace of this was certainly going to be the most uncertain part of the next year. And we brought somebody in to sort of reset the pace a little bit in terms of new ad formats, new technologies, user-experience. I think it's measured. I think it's smart. Again, we've -- I never want to say we don't have urgency. We always act with urgency, but modernization is going great at Tinder. And I think that we're certainly not going to roll out the ad product in a way that disrupts the very good trends we've got going there. So we'll certainly know more next quarter, and the quarter after. But right now, as you'll see in the outlook page, we're sort of tamping that piece down a little bit in the back half of the year. But really, all good at Tinder, couldn't be happier with how that's progressing. Turning to slide seven, I want to focus in the North American business for the next couple of slides. Obviously it's been an area of focus among investors. And I want to walk through, again, some of the underlying trends here. We've said throughout that the biggest impact on this business has been the rapid transition from desktop to mobile. I think the graph on the bottom-left-hand-side which shows that transition over the last four Q1s I think is pretty telling. We went from 37% mobile regs to 77% mobile regs over this time period. And you'll see that the mobile conversion gap is pretty significant, with -- in aggregate mobile conversion happening at about 63% the rate of desktop. If you assume for a second that everything else in the business was unchanged during this period, that alone would lead to a drop in new subscribers coming in the door of nearly 20% per period. So the fact that the business is actually up, so quite meaningfully over this period I think is quite a testament if you just isolate that factor. I really can't overstate the impact that this has had. I think the good news here is when you look at the mix shift, it's clearly stabilizing. You had 53%, 27%, 8%, we're now at 77%. I can't tell you where it's going to end exactly. But certainly the sheer and absolute numbers mix shift is going to slow dramatically, which reduces this headwind. And also, we've started to put real focus on mobile conversion. Again, I want to be clear when we talk about conversion, that it's a somewhat fuzzy number. Conversion encompasses first-time sub conversion, new cohorts, old cohorts, re-sub conversion, marketing can influence it; all sorts of things influence it, so I want to caveat these numbers significantly. But when we slice through it, and we try and isolate our conversion for pure product improvement, and isolating everything else, Q1 in '16 over Q1 in '15 across the board, we've been able to increase mobile conversion high mid-single digits, so over 5%, and really just starting to put real effort, momentum against that across the board. So we feel really good about this. I think, as we said on the IPO, and we say it again, that we really do see these trends, both the improvement in product conversion and slowdown in mobile mix leading to renewed growth in 2017 on these metrics. So we're, two quarters later, continue to see those trends holding true, and feel really good about it. Switching to slide eight, thought it was helpful to look at what's happened at Meetic, and what that means for this business. We don't always break Meetic out in granularity, but thought we'd do it here. And this shows a couple of things. One, Meetic clearly went through a downward period, has righted that, and is now, again, going up into the right. Everything is sort of humming. I think the first implication of this is I really do think it debunks a theory out there, which is that these older businesses, either everything other than Tinder or our businesses with hard paywalls or whatever you want to look at are subject to some sort of inexorable downward pressure. I've been saying all along, I do not believe that's true. I think this chart clearly demonstrates it. And the European market is as competitive, if not more competitive than the U.S. market. Tinder is big, you've got [indiscernible] you've got a million different things over there. So I know that most of the listeners on this call are not Europe-focused, but I guarantee you that this it is a very analogous situation to our current business here. I also think it's important to show that there was no magic here. They just had really good execution. They improved their product conversion. They improved their marketing operations and efficiencies. And those things are the things that have always driven this business, and they continue to drive it. I think the next thing it shows, and I talked about this a little bit last quarter, was this lag effect in these subscription businesses, which is the underlying metrics start improving several quarters before the PMC numbers follow behind, there's this real lag effect. I think if you look at this you see that here, which is the net adds comp, which is really just the change in aggregate subscriber numbers over a given period, hit rock bottom in Q3 '14, and then started their trek upward. But you see that the average PMC number, that sort of levels it out for a few quarters before it starts to rise again. And I think that is the underlying dynamics in these subscription businesses. We then take that, and we transpose it on to our North American situation. We think it's very analogous. We think Q3 '15, so effectively one year behind, was basically the low point for us on the net adds comparison, and this is excluding Tinder and excluding PlentyOfFish for these purposes. And we really saw what we think will be the biggest sort of net decrease in net adds year-over-year. We've now had two quarters that have exceeded that nicely. We expect that trend to continue for as far out as we plot it. We expect those PMC numbers, the average year-over-year PMC numbers to level out basically at the levels they are right now for the next couple of quarters, and then turn upwards again, getting positive again in the first part of 2017, which is again consistent with what we've been prognosticating, and consistent with sort of exactly what happened at Meetic. So, again, happy to get into more of this in Q&A, I think the key point here really is execution. No magic. Meetic is at continuity-of-leadership. They've executed really well. And contrast that with North America, where in our Match U.S. business, we had three different leaders over a nine-month period. On OkCupid, three different leaders over a 14-month period, that's a lot of turmoil. Leadership matters, continuity matters. All of that against the backdrop of what was a very organization-consuming technology project that started at the end of '14, and persisted through '15 with intensity, continues now, but with diminished and diminishing scope as we drive towards the end of it that should occur this year. So again, I think a lot of things happening now, stable management, experienced management, Mandy Ginsberg and Shar Dubey coming back from Princeton Review, really turning the knobs on execution. We're a new leader at OkCupid today, who we just brought in. So we feel really good about this situation, and with one quarter under the belt of Mandy and Shar, again, seeing really positive signs. Flipping to slide nine, we still hear lots of talk about cannibalization. And I've been saying for a long time that we just don't think cannibalization is part of the story. We think, really, the story is the mobile mix shift and execution. And I wanted to take one more crack at explaining our confidence in this. As everybody knows, Tinder is a predominantly under-age-35 business. We also know that Tinder really exploded on the scene at the beginning of '13, with rapid growth in '13 and '14. And in '15 we sort of began modernization in Q1. With that backdrop, if you look at our businesses in North America, sliced by age, you look at the top graphs first. These are not the graphs you would expect to see if Tinder had a big cannibalizing impact. What you would've expect to see was a flattening of the line under-35 prior to modernization, and then a big pop in 2015, when modernization began. And that's not what you see. You see pretty steady growth, pre-Tinder modernization, and then a pop on top of it, which implicates real additive growth on the PMC side under-35 once we introduce Tinder Plus. On the 35 side, again you'd expect to see a real discrepancy across the board through -- between the over-35 and the under-35 age groups if Tinder was really the driving force in performance impact in these businesses, and you don't -- what you really see is pretty comparable performance pre-Tinder Plus and then not as good performance after Tinder Plus, which make sense given that Tinder is predominantly under-35, and so that's where you get the pop. So again, I think Tinder cannibalization is a nice concept, but I think the numbers don't really support it. Going down to the bottom of the page, again, this is looking more granularly at both the new user sign-ups and the subscribers. On a mix basis, on these brands under-35, and again you're just not seeing what you'd expect to see Tinder was the big driver here. You see with the exception of OkCupid, which we will talk about, on the new sign-up front, under-35 mix is actually up modestly, during this period. And you look at the subscriber front, it's pretty much flat with some downward pressure at Match, which really again is explained by the mobile phenomenon, which is mobile mix is always heavier under-35 and given the lower conversion on mobile, you've got a conversion issue at Match under-35 versus over-35, but certainly not Tinder-related. When you look at OkCupid, the numbers are down, but you got to remember, OkCupid is going through a period of rapid growth here, and making a sort of concerted push into the over-35 group, meaning it was predominantly a under-35 business, and I think to talk about sort of negative mix shift when you grew subscribers by 250% under-35 during this period, I think is sort of nonsense call. I mean, you had huge absolute growth numbers, you had huge growth in regs and in [indiscernible] in the under-35 category at the very time that Tinder was exploding on the scene. So I think Tinder really is a huge category expansion story, it has been from beginning, and again I'm happy to continue to sort of answer questions on this concept for as long as people have them, but I reiterate for sort of the -- how many -- the 100 times, just nothing we see in the numbers support the theories that Tinder is a driver of any softness in our business of any note. Again, every product exerts some gravitational force on every other product, but we think the category expansion element of Tinder far outweighed any sort of cannibalistic impact. And turning to slide 10, we talked a lot about ARPU trend decline, and I think what we saw on Q4 was exactly what we predicted, and again in Q1, but nonetheless people have raised some concerns about it. So we just wanted to break this metric down a little bit more also. In the upper left-hand corner, you see sort of just the hard reported trends in our ARPU. But on the upper right, you sort of see the change in ARPU over the last year among sort of hard paywall brands and the soft paywall brands. And you can see remarkable consistency, meaning, the ARPU downward pressure is not pricing pressure in any respect whatsoever. It is purely the fact that our soft paywall businesses are growing faster than our hard paywall businesses, and that brings down the aggregate, right? But there is no pricing erosion or pricing instability in these products at all. Hard paywall is slightly up, and soft paywall is sort of bouncing around a little bit, but that's driven mostly by mix shift and by -- I think these are global numbers, is that right, Gary? Yes. So you've got Tinder's rapid growth in rest of world, which is lower price. There is a lot of noise in these numbers, but in general, you can see just absolute stability here. And then, I want to break it down one further, which is ordinarily when you think about sort of unit economic, you know, revenue per unit sold decline, right, you try and justify that on an increased volume basis, right? That's the way it typically works. And I think the increased volume argument certainly holds here, meaning, there is no question these soft paywall businesses at lower ARPU are driving meaningful incremental volume, but that's really only part of the story, I think we care about profit, and I think when you break this down and you look at what ARPU in the soft paywall businesses is only 55% of the ARPU of the heart of the hard paywall businesses, the acquisition cost per subscriber is only 26%. And when you net those together, the total lifetime profit per paying member on the soft paywall businesses is 89% as much as the total lifetime profit of a hard paywall subscriber. So, while it is mostly an incremental volume gain, I think in those instances, of which I'm sure there are a few, where it is a trade between a hard paywall subscriber and a soft paywall subscriber, the net effect of that is downward pressure on revenue growth, but real margin expansion. And basically no -- slightly negative profit impact, but very slight. And when you take into account the huge unit volume growth on here, this is not a bad story for us. This is a very positive story. And I think that you really need to look underneath the hood a little bit to understand why we're not concerned about the ARPPU trend at all. It's huge volume, and basically neutral, true economics. Princeton Review, not really going to spend time on, happy to in Q&A. If you want, I think again, just to point that this is a business that we're in transformation mode. And what we're really focused on here is our re-migrating this business online, our regenerating real cross sell. And to the extent we are, we think we're creating a really valuable business for the future, and so far so good, but obviously early. Slide 12 is our outlook slide. I think it's pretty self-explanatory. I'm not going to read through it. We're happy to obviously take questions on the call or in follow-ups to polish this off. But in general, we had a really successful first quarter. It enhanced even further our confidence and our ability to execute and deliver on the rest of the year. There are a few things that are a little better than expected. A few things that, wouldn't really say worse than expected, but maybe a little slower than expected, and overall, we think we're holding on a very confident, very solid, really high growth trajectory for the rest of the year. So, with that, happy to turn it over to Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Ross Sandler with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Ross Sandler:
Great, thanks guys. I had two on Tinder, and then one on the core Match brands. So with Tinder, can you guys talk about the conversion from free to paid by country, like is it fairly consistent, or is the U.S. driving a lot of the PMC growth that you're seeing at Tinder? Or I'll just ask a different way, is it broad-based and global, is it lumpy by geo, like how sustainable do you see this current 3x to 4x trajectory of Tinder PMCs? And then how does the retention of those PMCs compare to other dating products? Are these -- I know it's fairly new, but are they sticking around for several months or quarters? And then the -- thank you, by the way, for the new disclosures, they look great, I guess on the core Match side, if you strip out Tinder and PlentyOfFish, it looks like PMCs reversed from declining sequentially each of the two quarters in back-half '15, to now positive. So I guess, as you look out over the next year or two, do you see growth from core Match brands, ex-Tinder, ex-PlentyOfFish? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
All right, conversion, it certainly varies region-to-region. I would say U.S. and Western Europe are very comparable. When you get to the rest of the world, it's meaningfully less, but the rest of the world is also meaningfully bigger. So we've actually -- it is quite economically relevant to us on the sub side, rest of world. I guess to answer it, certainly less than half of our paying users are in North America, and I actually don't know the quite breakdown between Western Europe and the rest of the world, but the remainder, pretty balanced between Western Europe and the rest of the world. So while conversion is higher in North America and Europe, our MAUs are very, very significant beyond North America and Western Europe. So it is very much a global business. In terms of retention and renewal, Tinder continues to perform better than our other dating products on those two categories. We have added longer package mix over time, and not all those have renewed out yet. And so it's still early, and we're still figuring it out, but everything we know has the Tinder subscribers performing better than our other businesses. In terms of core Match, I think that -- in terms of sequential it's sort of tough to look at it that way, because Q1 is always a good seasonal quarter. So it's not surprising that you see sequential growth in Q4 to Q1. I also think that last year, we had, because we spiked Q1 marketing so dramatically against the norm, you had an even bigger sequential runoff last year in those businesses. So I think it's sort of distortive. I think what I would say is, going back to that Meetic chart, that I used, we think that the year-over-year numbers in those businesses have basically flattened out, and will start to improve. Meaning, the year-over-year comps are basically where they will be for the next couple of quarters, and then start to improve, which we think, real growth coming in the first part of next year. So, again, that's mostly -- we see the signs now. As we've said, we're seeing conversion improvements in these businesses. We're seeing net ads improvement, but just the lag effect between those things, and the runoff of the lower starting PMC numbers. But that means that re-subscriptions and everything else, basically you pay the price for Q2 through Q4 of last year, we pay that price for the first three quarters of '16, and then that sort of rebounds itself out in the back part of this year, and into '17. So, again, we feel really good about the progress, but there is some lag effect just in its manifestation in the aggregate PMC numbers.
Ross Sandler:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we'll move to Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Doug Anmuth:
Thanks, it's Doug. A couple of questions, first, guys, can you talk a little bit more just on the management additions at Tinder, and some of the changes that are taking place there. In particular, the slower rollout just on the advertising, which seems to make sense, just given how well you're monetizing the rest of the business. And then also just where the higher headcount is coming through. And then also if you could talk some of the monetization changes or additions, let's say, that you're considering there over the next couple of quarters, and how we should think about these, as whether they're incremental or more needle-moving kind of things? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
All right, Doug. On the management, when we -- we started -- when Sean Rad sort of reassumed the role of CEO back in, I guess, August of last year, we made a concerted push to flush out that management team. And I think that we were pursuing a number of different hires in parallel, and they all sort of came together at the same time. We've brought in a new Head of Engineering, a very experienced person, Zillow, Yahoo, various startups. Maria Zhang, she is great. She started a couple of weeks ago. We brought in a new Head of International, Garrick Coelho [ph], who'd been at years for Google and YouTube. And we brought in Pete Foster to run our advertising business really on full Match Group level, but really, Tinder is the business there with the most upside growth potential there. So it's -- while it's a Match Group-level job, heavy focus on Tinder. And then we brought in Ferrell McDonald to run Marketing. So those are all big hires. At the same time, Ryan Ogle, who had run Technology forever, and Jonathan Badeen, who'd run Product stay on in very senior positions; Ryan, now running Product, and Jonathan, now running Strategy, along with Sean. So I think you've got a great fusion of -- again, I've always said that the key to a successful startup becoming a successful company is maintaining all the talent and passion that got you there, while bringing in lots of experience and breadth from other places. And I think so far so good. I think -- you just think about the International piece, you say like, again, most of this business is outside of North America. And until we hired Garrick, we didn't have any dedicated international operations at all. So that is certainly an area of focus. And he's building out some infrastructure, and some folks to put muscle behind what has been, I won't say effortless momentum, meaning people in the L.A. office have been working on it. But it's certainly very different than having a dedicated focus. I think we have a pretty small marketing arm. And while I think that where Tinder is nowhere near a place where it's going to become some sort of a traditional paid marketing business. Certainly there is energy that can be brought to smart guerilla, on-the-ground brand marketing that I think we really haven't done enough of. And so I think there are lot of -- And on the technology side, while everything is great, I think as we hit this scale, we really are hitting incredible scale. I think brining in somebody who has operated at scale, run big engineering departments I think is just really key to the continued success of the business. On the advertising side, I think we looked at a couple of things. One, is what you pointed out, which is we've got great modernization going on the direct side, which gives us the luxury of not being rash. We don't want to do this in a way that upsets the user experience at all. So I think that it's not that big a deal. You had one leader who sort of laid out this ramp, and then somebody else comes in. And it's not some big philosophical difference, they just sort of order things a little bit differently. And you end up with a slightly different rollout. And I've said from beginning, we're not -- we don't really manage any of our businesses quarter-to-quarter, but certainly Tinder is a business that we're managing for long-term value growth. And a new leader comes in and says -- lays down a case for doing something a little bit differently, and that has an impact, we're not going to worry too much about that impact. I think in headcount, yes, we did note in the outlook that we've got higher headcount expense at Tinder expected. That's not a refined number. You've got a new team that's come in there, sort of flushing out their ambitions and goals, and we're working through that. Again, I can tell you that this is a business with lots of momentum. We like to hire into momentum, as opposed to hiring to create momentum. And that's what we're doing here. The momentum is there, we're flushing out key roles in really international and product flash technology, or where the headcount is coming. We've got big, big, big product ambitions in this area. Modernization is a part of it, but it's really the tail here. We've said for a long time that we see opportunities to take Tinder and really transcend the category that we're in. And we plan on putting resources against that, and we feel good about it. Again, we're not talking tens of millions of incremental dollars here, but we're talking about tens of incremental heads, which add up in sort of any given quarter. Did I answer all the questions there?
Doug Anmuth:
Yes, you did. That was helpful on Tinder, thank you.
Greg Blatt:
Great, Doug. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we'll move to John Blackledge with Cowen Group. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
John Blackledge:
Great, thanks for the questions. So Tinder, off to a strong start for the year, a million ending subs in the quarter. Can you just flush out the product pipeline for 2Q and the rest of the year? Maybe give some examples of upcoming products that you expect could drive you there, further sub penetration and or engagement? And then also maybe just discuss Tinder MAUs. Are they growing? And how is engagement? And then just off of Match.com, how is the mobile upgrade progressing? Thank you.
Greg Blatt:
On Tinder, the answer on your product pipeline question is, no, like it's a very competitive phase. We've got lots of competitive ideas. And so I can't layout what the product roadmap is for you. I can tell you that it's pretty robust. We've got a lot of plans. I think on the modernization side, we've certainly have, and we've got a dedicated team that works on modernization. They have their own cadence. We've now gotten to the point; I used to say fairly often, like we're reallocating resources between experience and modernization. That really you won't hear from us very much anymore, in that we've got a dedicated team that is working on Tinder Plus. And they will continue to roll things out. I think there's a mix there of new features, and just optimizing the old features. I mean we basically rolled out Tinder Plus, we then optimized a number of the features, we have an optimized pricing. So a lot of the stuffy, I would say is invisible, but should continue to put upward pressure on the -- or upward momentum on the conversion. And then we also have some new cognizable and identifiable features in Tinder Plus that I think you'll start to see, which again, are sort of built into our outlook for the year; although, again, as I said earlier, every modernization initiative that we've rolled out at Tinder yet has exceeded our expectation. So, including our a la carte product that I hinted out here is really -- we rolled out our first paid a la carte feature, and you never know, and then we rolled it out, and it has been incredibly responsive. So I think there's lots of opportunity there. So I think you will see a cadence on that front. On the non-modernization, and I'll leave advertising out for a second as well, because that has its own roadmap, you're going to see a mix of what I call, again, optimization algorithms, and all that stuff which you can notice, but don't change the world, but are just important to sustaining the growth of the business. And then, again, I think we've got some real ideas here that you'll start to see that each one is a swing that has the potential to start moving the definition of the business or expanding the definition of the business from where it is, which is where I think a lot of our resources and energy are going to be over the back half of the year. In terms of Tinder MAU, it continues to grow well. Again, as I've said, it's slower growth in North America than in the rest of the world, which is natural just given the rollout. Volume of new signups continues to be very strong, and we're showing improvement in reactivations and retention, and those things collectively drive the MAU growth, but it continues to be solid. On Match, again, we brought Mandy and Shar back in. I think that's been real focusing for the organization. They are putting most of their time at Match U.S. -- sure that's not really true. Match U.S. is certainly a prime focus for them as they rev up. We're seeing some real positive signs. Again, not to harp too much on execution, but it matters. Some of the things we're doing is we're just finding little things that got broken in the machine. It caused sort of leakages [indiscernible] from this cohort and that cohort. Some of it is just patching up some holes in the machine, others are improving product. Again, I talked about the -- last quarter, we just switched over our Android app, and we've seen meaningful improvements there, focusing on mobile web, and some other things right now, overall, quarter-over-quarter across the businesses. Ex-Tinder, we saw a nice increase in mobile conversions. So, again, we're feeling very positive about the execution at Match U.S. I think that's it.
John Blackledge:
That's great. Thank you.
Greg Blatt:
You're welcome. Next question please. Operator?
Operator:
Yes, thank you. Our next question will come from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Jason Helfstein:
Thanks. Two quick ones, can you give us a sense, Greg, of the number of registered users in the platform today on a basis of the MAU, and how that will compare, let's say, to one or two years ago? And then how you think about the pace of conversions from registered to paid over the next few years? Because clearly, historically, you had a very high percent of paid, and obviously with the shift to the premium services you have more registered than you have paid, and kind of tracking that. So if there's any help you can give us on that, I think people would appreciate that. And then secondly, can you go in a little more detail about what drove the marketing efficiency. If there's anything specifically you want to call out that you guys think you're doing better? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
Okay, first, we're not breaking out the MAU numbers, but I can certainly tell you that our global MAU numbers are dramatically higher today than they were one or two years ago. And that MAU growth continues well. I mean, it's different -- Tinder is a bigger driver of it than Match U.S., for instance, but in aggregate, growing nicely. I think on the conversion side, in some ways you can think about it a little bit like ARPPU, which is the ARPPU trend is coming down. On a global basis, conversion is coming down just because of the mix shift, but within each business conversion is going up. I don't have a systematic way to describe those trends right now. We can certainly think about doing that for the next all. I think that we sort of look at it a little bit differently, which is we do believe that we've got real opportunities to increase conversion within each of our businesses, and to grow users within each of our businesses. And that's sort of the way we're organized, and the way we manage it. I think that just by definition, because of the mix shift, you're going to see users going up, and aggregate conversion going down, along with ARPPU going down, but also marketing expense going down. And that's sort of the ties back into that unit economic slide that I talked about before. So I don't have a great signpost to give you for sort of consolidated modeling over the next four to eight quarters, but we can think about a good way to articulate that for you for next time.
Jason Helfstein:
And then on the marketing efficiency?
Greg Blatt:
Jason, there you're focused on the marketing cost being down as a percentage of revenue in the quarter, is that what your question…
Jason Helfstein:
Yes. I mean, just like -- I mean there are things that you got to put in place that you're doing better I think now than maybe a year ago, and is there anything you want to highlight that you thought was more visible…
Greg Blatt:
Yes, I think that again a lot of that is mix, right, which is on a consolidated basis, marketing comes down as a percentage of revenue, because -- again, it goes back to that unit economic slide that I talked about, which is the marketing cost per subscriber at Tinder -- and that's inclusive of the app fees that we pay by the way, those numbers. So when you have more of your subs coming from Tinder, you're paying only 26% of much marketing per sub, as you do at Match. So without any marketing efficiency in the way I think about it, which is just getting better at marketing, you see a confident improvement in the relationship between those two metrics just because of mix shift. So that's the biggest diver of that by far. Second, we did improve our marketing. Meetic in particular had a solid year of improving their marketing execution, especially on the online side. And I think that overall we're starting to see signs of improvement in our ability to sort of market efficiently in the emerging mobile marketing channels, which I think continues to be really important for the growth in the hard paywall businesses. But predominantly that efficiency you're seeing is a mix shift from the hard paywall to the soft paywall businesses.
Jason Helfstein:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we will move to Eric Sheridan of UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Eric Sheridan:
Thank you very much for taking the question. And I appreciate all the additional disclosure. I wanted to go back to slide seven in the presentation. And I'm just getting a little bit of some of the trends that we're seeing on that slide. Do you think you have sort of a natural feeling that you'll hit in terms of mobile versus desktop on the branded registrations by platform? I wanted to also understand a little bit how you think mobile conversion as a percentage of desktop also continues to traject [ph] through '16, but also beyond '16? And then last would be as you look at mobile conversion versus desktop, how does that inform how you spend a dollar of marketing and how you think about the relative ROI between channels when you look out of the business over the next couple of years? Thanks, guys.
Greg Blatt:
All right. On the graph on the bottom-left, which is brand regs by platform, first I want to be clear that brand regs effectively excludes online marketing. You traditionally think of it was online marketing. So, brand regs are word-of-mouth and television basically. And this sort of reflects I think sort of the device habits of our user base, right, so this is where marketing isn't focused on any one channel. This should reflect the general, like, what percentage of our users tends to do most of their stuff on desktop versus mobile? Right now you're seeing about a 77-23 split. Anyone's guess, again I continue to think that desktop is not going away, at least not you know, rapidly. There will always be a use for desktop, and people use it. So whether that 77 gets to 83 or 84, it's not going 92 quickly, I think. So I think that trajectory has slowed down a fair amount. On the online reg, this number can jump around a little bit, because again we're trying to open up more and more mobile paid channels. And so that number we would actually like to see -- that's one where we want to push that harder and harder, because we will only spend where it's ROI positive. So that can jump around a little bit. In terms of the gap, the 63% gap, I think that the GAAP has been -- look, I guess people have different opinions about this. The gap I think has been a very useful sort of device for looking at the impact to our business over this period of rapid shift. I think if you assume that the rapid mix shift has sort of slowed dramatically, then really what we care about at this point is simply moving up aggregate conversion, and not so much closing the gap, meaning, now 77% -- the gap is relevant where the higher number was the 65% of the mix. Now that's the 23% of the mix, to us, it's not so much about closing the gap, it's much as driving up conversion everywhere. I mean, if we can drive up desktop conversion, that's great. It may hurt the gap, but we will do it. So I kind of think about in terms of like what is our ability to increase mobile conversion generally? As I said, we were able to do over the last year, I think, slightly better than mid single-digit sort of percentage improvement. I think we're increasingly organizing around that phenomenon, and driving that metrics. So I think that we've got certainly a reasonable low-end expectation of sort of what we ought to be able to do going forward, and I think again, if you think about it, if everything else is flat, I mean everything else holds constant, then you're increase in conversion should equal -- your percentage increase in conversion should increase -- should equal your percentage increase in first time subs coming through the door. So, those are real meaningful improvements to us. We think we can repeat them and hopefully improve them, and we think that's a big driver of sort of again this belief that this tropes is in the process of stabilizing right now, and starts to go right -- up into the right again, sort of the back-half of this year and first part of next year.
Eric Sheridan:
Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we will move to Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Dan Salmon:
Hey guys, good morning. Two questions, first for Greg, I think it was last week or the week before you launched the Tinder Social initiative test in -- with a small group of users in Australia, could you maybe just tell us a little bit more about what the milestones you are looking at for that test, and maybe expand a little bit more on the big picture opportunity there? And then just a second one for Gary in the outlook slide under the forecast updates, you mentioned some changes to the tech migration to Match Affinity, maybe just give us a little bit more color there, and any other important initiatives on the back-end that are going on? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
Sure. I think, look, it's a test, it is strategically meaningful and it's the first sort of product change that we've introduced, it sort of lays the foundation for a broader product experience than the traditional one-on-one dating experience. And so, in that respect it's important. At the same time, it's also very complicated. You launch a test like this, and the first thing you're looking at is making sure that you've done no harm. You introduce something like that into what is a very powerful and successful ecosystem, and you want to do it slowly, you want to do it carefully, you want to see whether the intended consequences on all the core behaviors. So that's really where we're right now. I think obviously the positive stuff is obvious, you want to increase engagement, you want to increase usage, you want to increase new sign-ups, and you want to continue improve and create new used cases for the product experience. But it's very early. You introduce something like this into the ecosystem and there is a potential for good and bad, and I think you know, we're one week in, and so, we have certainly nothing to report at the moment. It's complex. And we're excited about the overall direction, but very circumspect in terms of this specific sort of future iteration as to whether or not it is going to start completely move us in that direction or not, certainly we'll have a lot more to say about it on the next call.
Gary Swidler:
And then Dan, in terms of the tech migration; as we kind of talk here of what happened in 2015 and plan for '16, the way we looked at it was you know, when you look at Match, the tech platform was a pretty big distraction to the lot of resources, a lot of people's time. And I think just given where we're and given the mobile shift, we decided that we should push off doing more of the tech migration around Match Affinity, and really focus on execution of that business as well, and try to drive sub growth at that business. And so that's the rationale for that. That's what we've done. And then the slide kind of lays out there will be some more costs in Q2 to finish that up, and then there really won't be much cost after that for the remaining tech migration.
Greg Blatt:
Yes. I think just -- it's been a very big project, it's been very modular, meaning, we postponed one part of it, which is sort of a final piece, which was migrating the Match Affinity business on to the Match platform, but all the rest of it is going to have been completed, and we drive meaningful benefit from it, meaning we will completely rebuild the Match back-end, the Match front-end, create an API that allows the Match back-end to speak effortlessly to the Match desktop web, the Match mobile web, the iOS, the Android app, all of that creates dramatic efficiency. It allows us to deploy former resources on sort of product development as opposed to replicating the back-end part of product development that we had to replicate on each device over and over, so, big impact there. We brought it new management for these businesses, and again, what's the point of bringing new management if you don't listen to them? And their view was to re-prioritize a little bit for the balance of this year, and push that back off, and we'll either do it next year or we will sort of close the -- create the efficiency in a different way. I think other things that happen as part of that project, just to note, we took our European business from seven offices down to three offices. We did major tech -- not nearly as major, but we basically created the same sort of efficiencies in terms of API and reducing redundancy on the Meetic platform as well. So, lots and lots, we migrated Latin America on to the Match platform in the fall, so, lots and lots headwind done and there is still ongoing work to complete it. Yes, I was just giving a note, we also migrated the FriendScout business on to the Meetic platform. So this was a big, big project. All we're doing is really sort of indefinitely postponing one piece of it, which may or may not ultimately happen, but we'll have gotten by the time we're done, which should be by the end of this year. We'll have gotten the vast majority of the expected benefits out of the project. So I don't want to focus too much on the one part that we've pushed off.
Dan Salmon:
Okay, great. Thanks very much for the details.
Greg Blatt:
We probably have time for one or two more questions, operator.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we will move to Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Heath Terry:
Great, thanks. I just wanted to -- since a lot of the other questions we'd have been answered, I just wanted to take a little bit more into the Meetic example, because I think it's really interesting on the turnaround you guys have seen there; can you give us a sense for what happened with pricing over this period, and whether or not how much if at all that was a lever? And then, the chart starts couple of years or three years ago, right up you guys did the Massive Media acquisition into Meetic, I'm just curious how much of an impact the attrition of Match's users had on that initial decline, and if were to look at this just purely you know, maybe excluding the acquisitions on a like-for-like basis, would it look any different?
Greg Blatt:
Thank you. We'll focus on last point first. I'm not sure I heard -- it was right after the what acquisition?
Heath Terry:
Massive Media, when you guys bought Twoo.
Greg Blatt:
This has nothing to do with Twoo. So Twoo is excluded from these numbers. This is purely core Meetic dating. It excludes the FriendScout acquisition. It includes -- it excludes the Meetic Affinity brand that we sort of had to runoff on. So this is purely like-for-like, think of it as the Match.com of Europe. Okay? So this is -- all that is excluded. I think in terms of rate, again, there's been some -- just see, rate -- we're pretty confident throughout this period, I'm looking at it now, this is all -- this is local currency, right, so there is no FX in this that I'm looking at. Yes, on a local currency basis, I will say the Q3 2014 rate was identical to the Q4 2015 rate. So there was a little bit of -- it went up a little bit during this period and then back on a little bit, again, driven mostly by the mix of discounting and package mix and all that sort of -- so pricing was definitely not a meaningful driver of this. The biggest driver of it was we improved conversion, we improved marketing efficiency, I mean, it was just -- there was always a million things going on, but these are businesses where -- look, Meetic, when we bought Meetic back in 2011, it was in a trough, and we built it out and then it sort of stumbled a little bit, and Match had a big stumble four or five years back on the execution front. The core lessons of marketing creative, marketing tactic, product -- theory product execution, all of that stuff is -- I know it's complicated in any business, but -- and I'm probably bias, but I think it's complicated here, especially at large scale. And I think that they just really stepped up their execution, and everything started hitting, and there is no magic bullet or smoking gun. They just did better. And again, we brought a new management there, I want to say the late part of 2013, and that leads to continuity, and just good execution. And they're on a really good run, and we feel really confident that again, you know, not to get prior management, the turnaround in the North American business, we think we hit our low-point in Q3 '15. So the turnaround started then, but we brought in new management and I think that Mandy and Shar, I think they're amazing in execution, and I think that we feel really good that this trajectory will replicate itself in the North American businesses.
Heath Terry:
Great, thank you.
Greg Blatt:
You're welcome. We're going to take one last question, operator.
Operator:
Thank you. We will take our final question from Peter Stabler from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Peter Stabler:
Thanks. Two quick ones from me, first of all, Greg, I'm wondering if you could comment a little bit on the advertising landscape for your other brands, the non-Tinder brands. Most of us on the call pay pretty close attention to that, and we've seen a kind of a divergence in performance. So I'm just wondering some comments there. Secondly, Greg, could you remind us your exposure to app store taxes and strategies to mitigate those? Thanks.
Greg Blatt:
Taking suggestions on tactics to mitigate themselves, anyone has a good idea for how to avoid paying Apple. They're 30% open to them. I think that -- the numbers are obviously built into the number we've talked about, if you go to the app store, if you go to the unit economic slide we did, where we talked about sort of the soft paywall businesses being at 26% of the acquisition cost of the hard paywall. That's inclusive of the app store fees. So for instance, Tinder pays us 30% sort of payment on every subscriber has, but that is built into those numbers. I think again, if you sort of aggregate marketing costs and the app store fees, you got marketing costs coming down dramatically as a percentage of revenue, you've got app store fees increasing as a percentage of revenue, I think the net of all of those is margin improvement overall, but they're sort of going in two different directions. I think on the advertising side, if I understood your question, sort of ex-Tinder, you were saying there was a divergent; I think you mean that our ad revenue in those business is not growing as fast as the market generally.
Peter Stabler:
I guess what I meant, Greg, is across the landscape we're seeing share being taken back, you know, large scale data-driven, great execution, and then we've seen other platforms kind of languishing. So just wondering if you can give us a little bit of color on the trends you're seeing in…
Greg Blatt:
Sure. I think, again, we obviously just brought in -- we just brought in new management. We're scaling that operation meaningfully. I absolutely believe our execution will get much better, and that we will become more relevant. And so, I think when you talk about sort of better data, we're in the process, you know, we have all of this data right now. We don't have a central technology system that harnesses it, allows us to monetize it; it allows us to get the advantage of it, all of that is underway. I think of -- an also a big driver really, you go back to that sort of mobile mix slide, the reality is that not unlike a lot of other businesses, our desktop business has monetized on an advertising side much better than our mobile business. And so, over the last three years as you've seen this rapid shift from desktop to mobile, which we focus on the conversion side, it also had a negative impact on the ad revenue side, where businesses like Match, and Meetic, and OkCupid et cetera, they're in the priorities of what they do. And as they have sort of scrambled to keep up with this mobile shift, there is no question that the ad side has been a very bottom priority as, again, conversion and everything else. So I think it has not been a great period for us on the ad side, driven by, first, did not being a big focus, and be the mobile mix shift, I think mobile mix shift is mostly behind us. We now have real focus and real leadership, and I do expect it to improve meaningfully in the periods to come.
Peter Stabler:
Thanks, Greg.
Greg Blatt:
You're welcome.
Greg Blatt:
Thanks everybody. We will talk to you next quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at anytime, and have a great day.